ANOTHER RAID//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $8.60 TO $1827.85//SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 41 CENTS TO $21.07//PLATINUM DOWN $20.15 TO $911.50//PALLADIUM DOWN $25.90 TO $1841.55//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//EUROPEAN AND USA PMI’S AWFUL!!/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1827.85 DOWN $8.60 

SILVER: $21.07 DOWN 41 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1822.50

SILVER: $20.96

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,667 DOWN  20

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,855  UP 168.  

Platinum price: closing DOWN $20.15 to $911.50

Palladium price; closing DOWN $25.90  at $1841.55

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE:  2/12

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,834.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/22/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/24/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11
661 C JP MORGAN 1 2
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 12 12
MONTH TO DATE: 23,808

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 12  NOTICE(S) FOR 1200 Oz//0.0373  TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,808 contracts for 2,380,800 oz (74.0528 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

9 NOTICE(S) FILED 45,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1818 :  for 9,090,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//AWITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 545.137 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED  2754 CONTRACTS TO 142,602   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL   $0.14 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.14) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.  

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6 CONTRACTS OR 30,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  9,140,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -549

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total 12,117,  contracts:  60,585 million oz  OR 3.788 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (757 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 60.585 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 60.585 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  2754 WITH OUR   $0.14 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 475 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 9,195,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2270 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.65 MILLION  OZ WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 9  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  45,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 1008 CONTRACTS  TO 499,268 AND FURTHER NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -156 CONTRACTS.

.

THE  SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF $0.15//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  3900 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING:  74.911TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $0.15 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2585  OI CONTRACTS 8.040 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  3593 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 499,269

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2585, WITH 1008 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3593 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2585 CONTRACTS OR 8.040 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3593) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (852,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2585 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P  JUMP  OF 3900 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74.9611 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

57,986 CONTRACTS OR 5,798600 OZ OR 180.36  TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3624 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 169.18 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  180.36/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 180.36 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2754 CONTRACT OI TO 142,602 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 475 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 475  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1768 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 475 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2270   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11.35 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.14 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.95 PTS OR 1.62%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.53 PTS OR 1.36%    /The Nikkei closed UP 21.70 OR 0.08%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.14%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7071    /Oil UP TO 105.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 111.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7071 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7068: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1008 CONTRACTS TO 499,208 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.15  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3593 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3593 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :3593 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3593 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2585  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3593 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 852  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $0.15.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE   (74.793),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.793 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.15) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 2741 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.793 TONNES)

WE HAD 156 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2585 CONTRACTS OR 258500  OZ OR 8.040 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 156,332/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  160,402  /poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 23

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz2,739.949 oz
Malca
JPMorgan
78 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today12  notice(s)1200 OZ
0.0373 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)238 contracts 23,800 oz
0.7402 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,808 notices
2,380,800 OZ
74.0528 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Malca: 2507.778 oz (78 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  200.02 oz

total withdrawal: 2739.949  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 250 contracts having lost 109 contracts

We had 55 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we LOST 54   contracts or an additional 5400 oz will NOT  stand for gold in this very active month of June 

July has a LOSS OF 149 OI to stand at 1452

August has a LOSS of 1821 contracts DOWN to 411,811 contracts

We had 12 notice(s) filed today for  NIL 120oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  1 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 55 contract(s) of which 12  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,808) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 250  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 12 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,404,600 OZ  OR 74.793 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,808) x 100 oz+   (250)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (12} x 100 oz} which equals 2,404,600 oz standing OR 74.793 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  74.793 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  33,504,694.715 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,228,629.994  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,276,064.721OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,921,555.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

SILVER/COMEX/JUNE 23

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,410,479.789  oz
Brinks
CNT
Manfra
Delaware
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory200,607,010 oz
Delaware
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)9CONTRACT(S)45,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)21 contracts (105,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1818 contracts 9,090,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into HSBC  600.635.310 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 99.971.700 oz

total deposit:  700,607.010    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169,099 million oz/336/533 million =50.22% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

CNT  16,182.610 oz

Delaware 2000.589 oz

JPMorgan 559,007.640 oz

Manfra  60,615.440 oz

total withdrawal  1,410.479.789         oz

 adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.116 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336/553 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 30 HAVING GAINED 5 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 55,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 9866 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 35,556 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 87 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1103

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 6847 CONTRACTS UP TO 88,192 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for  30,000 oz

Comex volumes:94,325// est. volume today//   STRONG

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 80,623 contracts ( good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1818 x 5,000 oz = 9,090,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(30) and the number of notices served upon today 9  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1818 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (30)  – number of notices served upon today (9) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 9,195,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1073.80 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545/137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 545.137 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

The Inflation Solutions Are Even Worse Than The Problem

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

As Americans labor under the burden of inflation, the Biden administration keeps telling us the economy is just fine. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently said we are “transitioning” to “steady and stable growth.” As a result, she claims the American people are in a place where they can “take on inflation.”

Americans aren’t buying it. In fact, they’re buying less of everything as rising prices squeeze their wallets. Consumer confidence has plunged to historically low levels. But as bad as things are, the worst could still be yet to come because the proposed solutions are worse than the problem.

In the first place, it’s important to understand that the impacts of inflation are far worse than the official numbers indicate. The government uses a cooked CPI formula that understates rising prices. Back in 1998, the government significantly revised the CPI metrics. Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted the changes were “sweeping.” Measured using the old formula, CPI would be running closer to 17%.

For instance, we’ve seen a staggering increase in housing prices over the last year or so. The average price of an existing home topped $400,000 for the first time ever in May. Rent has also gone through the roof. But the CPI doesn’t capture the full impact of rising home prices. The government uses a made-up number known as “owner’s equivalent rent” to calculate housing prices. This number understates the cost of housing and it makes up about 1/3 of the CPI calculation. Actual home prices are up about 20%. Rent is up over 15%. The CPI calculation for shelter is only up about 5.5%. It simply doesn’t reflect reality.

No matter how the talking heads spin it, we know the economy is a mess. We live it every day. More distressing, it’s probably going to get worse because the plans to tackle inflation are more of what caused it in the first place.

Solutions Worse than the Problem

So, what is the plan to tame inflation?

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D) plans to introduce legislation to impose a surtax on “excessive” oil company profits. According to one popular narrative coming out of the Democratic Party, oil company price gouging is causing inflation. But this doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

And while punishing “greedy” oil companies certainly has populist appeal, it won’t do anything to solve the problem. You could confiscate all of the oil company profits and hand them out to the American people and they would hardly notice the difference.

Furthermore, if you take the profit out of drilling for oil, nobody will drill for oil. It would ultimately create an even bigger supply problem than we have right now.

The inflation-fighting plan announced by the White House mostly involves spending more money. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, President Biden claimed, “We can lower the cost of child and elder care to help parents get back to work.” Lowering the cost of childcare is code for government-subsidized childcare. He also alluded to the stalled “Build Back Better” bill, which is basically a $2.2 trillion spending plan. Biden wrote, “We can also reduce the cost of everyday goods by fixing broken supply chains, improving infrastructure…”

But government spending isn’t the solution. It’s the problem. The White House press secretary lauded the “American Rescue Plan” as the first step toward recovery. But in reality, Americans need rescuing from that rescue plan.

In effect, governments shut down the economy and handed out money for people to spend. Supplies were squeezed because nobody was producing goods and services. But demand never dropped because everybody had their pocket stuffed with stimulus money. In effect, the government flooded the economy with money even as it starved it of goods. Of course, prices went through the roof. This was entirely predictable.

Now the Biden administration wants spend more – the exact policy that got us in this inflation mess to begin with.

The Federal Reserve appears equally feckless. It took a more aggressive stance during the last FOMC meeting, raising interest rates by 75 basis points. But it remains so far behind the inflation curve that it can’t even see it.

To truly tame inflation, real interest rates need to rise above the level of inflation. Paul Volker raised rates to 20% in order to slay the inflation dragon. The current 1.5% rate is spitting into the wind in the face of an 8.6% CPI (which is understating inflation.)

Given all of the debt in the economy, the Fed can’t possibly raise rates to that level without popping the bubbles and toppling the house of cards economy. The Fed is at a crossroads – either continue the inflation fight and plunge us into a deep recession or surrender to inflation and destroy the dollar.

Neither scenario is particularly desirable. So brace yourself because things will likely get worse before they get better.

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

-END-

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is interesting:  Manly writes that Russia is mobilizing its gold in support of war, while the EU appears to be trying to prevent Russia from doing just that

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: Russia mobilizes its gold for war, EU moves to block it

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-21 23:10Section: Daily Dispatches

11:10p ET Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly writes tonight that Russia appears to be preparing mechanisms for mobilizing its gold in support of war, while the European Union appears to be moving to prevent Russia from doing just that.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Russia Lines Up Its State Fund of Precious Metals for Military Mobilization” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/russia-lines-up-its-state-fund-of-precious-metals-for-military-mobilization/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7071

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7068

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 265.53  PTS OR 1.26% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 21.70% OR 0.08%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  104.34/Euro FALLS TO 1.0497

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.226/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.138/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.478%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.52% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.56%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.75//

3j Gold at $1825.75 silver at: 21.13  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  0        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 53.18

3m oil into the 105 dollar handle for WTI and  111 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.14DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9663– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0144well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.132 DOWN 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.225  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.36

Futures Rebound As Hopes Of Imminent Recession Spark “Bad News Is Good News” Reversal

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 07:50 AM

In a world where bad news is good news, and where the looming recession means an end to rate hikes and a start to easing, it didn’t take algos long to bid stocks up as treasury yields tumbled after comments by Jerome Powell and dismal PMI data in Europe justified fears that a global downturn is now just a matter of when, not if. After initially sliding more than 1% late on Wednesday, futures rebounded and recovered all losses and were last trading near Wednesday’s session highs, up 0.7% or 27 point to 3,790, while Nasdaq futs were up 0.9% at 11,375 as of 715am ET.

10Y yield initially dumped below 3.10% – near a two week low, after trading at 3.50% one week ago –  before bouncing modestly, while the Dollar pushed higher as the euro tumbled after after a series of very poor European PMI prints confirmed that Europe’s runaway inflation is pushing the continent into a stagflationary recession, which in turn sent the yield on German 10-year bonds slumping as much as 21 basis points, poised for the biggest two-day decline since November 2011. US 10-year rates traded near a two-week low.

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks climbed  as bullish sentiment around the group continues to grow amid calls from strategists and fund managers that Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns are easing. JPMorgan Asset Management became the latest to voice its support for Chinese tech shares, saying “the worst is over” when it comes to regulatory crackdowns. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • KB Home (KBH US) shares climb 4.7% in premarket trading after the homebuilder reported earnings per share and revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • US-listed shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers rallied in premarket trading after Chinese state television reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases.
  • Li Auto (LI US) +6%, Xpeng (XPEV US) +5.3% and Nio (NIO US) +2.6% in premarket trading.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rebounded in premarket trading as Bitcoin recovered to remain over the closely watched $20,000 level.
  • Coinbase (COIN US) +3%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +3.7%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +4.4%, Block (SQ US) +0.7%.
  • EBay (EBAY US) shares decline 2.1% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of the stock with a recommendation of underweight and a price target of $36, the lowest on Wall Street.
  • Energy companies slide in US premarket trading as oil eases anew amid concerns of slowing global growth.
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM US) -1%, Chevron (CVX US) -1.1%, Imperial Petroleum (IMPP US) -3.1%, Camber Energy (CEI US) -2.4%.
  • Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB US) and AGCO (AGCO US) shares may be in focus as Morgan Stanley cuts them to equal-weight and resumes coverage of Cummins (CMI US) at equal-weight in a note trimming its PTs across most of its machinery and construction coverage.

On Wednesday, in the first day of his Congressional testimony, Powell accepted that steep rate increases could trigger a US recession, and said the task of engineering a soft economic landing is “very challenging” (day two follows). Policy makers are taking drastic steps to cool inflation at a four-decade high and the Fed chair repeated his resolve to get consumer price growth back down to the 2% target.

“Market optimism couldn’t survive Jerome Powell’s testimony yesterday, but most of the negative pricing is certainly done by now,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote.

“The reaffirmation of the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down and that recession is a risk are adding to growth worries, which is the dominant fear again,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank.

Traders are now debating how far the Fed will stretch its rate cycle in the face of an economic downturn. Money markets indicate diminished odds the central bank will raise rates beyond year-end, and rising odds of a rate cut from May 2023. The Federal Reserve “is well served by keeping some hawkishness there,” Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Because if they appear that they’ve reached the peak, then financial conditions will loosen and the policy won’t work. So they need a couple more months of this.”

European equities traded flat having erased earlier losses of more than 1%. Real estate, autos and banks are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors; travel is a rare bright spot. European energy stocks slipped for a second session with crude prices under pressure as concerns over a global economic slowdown intensified. The Stoxx 600 Energy index falls as much as 1.9%; TotalEnergies and Shell the biggest drags on the index on Thursday, with wind- turbine firm Vestas and Italy’s Eni also slipping.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Aroundtown stock drops as much as 11% after being cut to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan, which also lowered its PT to EU3.6 from EU6 due to excessive downside exposure for the German landlord.
  • Vantage Towers falls as much as 7.6% after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying the shares have outperformed despite challenges in its outlook.
  • Saipem trims losses after declining as much as 21% following the announcement of a EU2b capital increase on Wednesday; Italy’s Consob warns of volatility in the stock when the rights issue starts.
  • Rheinmetall falls as much as 6.3% after HSBC downgraded the German automotive and defense group to hold from buy due to it being temporarily held back by its automotive division
  • Naked Wines slumps as much as 40% after the online wine merchant forecast fiscal 2023 sales of £345m-£375m. The midpoint of the guidance is ~10% lower than what Jefferies analysts had been expecting.
  • Intertek falls as much as 4.1% after Deutsche Bank cuts the stock to sell, saying many structural trends that underpinned growth for testing and inspection companies are reversing. Eurofins gains as much as 4.2% on an upgrade to hold.
  • Atos gains as much as 11% after a report that Thales has the support of the French state in its effort to buy French tech company’s cybersecurity business.
  • Ubisoft rises as much as 2.5% before paring gains, as Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with a buy rating, saying there’s “good scope” to beat revenue and margins expectations for fiscal 2024 and 2025.

As noted above, the latest let of European PMIs were dismal, dropping across the board and all (except the UK) missing expectations:

  • Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.9, consensus 54.0, last 54.8.
    • Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 52.0,  consensus 53.8, last 54.6.
    • Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.5, last 56.1.
  • Germany Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.3, consensus 53.0, last 53.7.
  • France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.9, last 57.0.
  • UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 53.1, consensus 52.4, last 53.1.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged higher, with an improving outlook in China offering support even as the prospect of a global downturn weighed on some export-reliant markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% with China’s internet giants and automakers contributing to the gains. South Korea and Taiwan, the two tech-heavy markets that have seen foreigners flee amid rising global rates, fell more than 1%. Traders digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday comments that steep rate increases could trigger a US recession. China stocks were the region’s best performers, extending a recent trend, as President Xi Jinping pledged to meet economic targets for the year. 

Hong Kong stocks gained after a report that the city’s incoming leader is working on a strategy to reopen its borders. Japanese stocks were little changed. “We’re sort of in a bottoming out phase here in Asia, where China is going to eventually support us again,” Robeco Asia-Pacific Chief Investment Officer Arnout van Rijn said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The rest of Asia, with its better macroeconomic policies and lower interest rates, should at least outperform a weaker global market.” The Fed’s recent rate hike and comments have been especially hard on growth shares, with a gauge of Asia’s tech stocks falling to its lowest level since September 2020. China’s stocks have outperformed the broader region amid hopes for continued fiscal and monetary support.

Japanese equities struggled for direction as investors worried over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the risks of a recession. The Topix closed down les than 0.1% at 1,851.74, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 26,171.25. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,295 rose and 775 fell, while 100 were unchanged. “We’re in a very difficult phase,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “The market is still focused on what will happen to prices in the US and whether the economy can cope with a larger interest rate hike.” 

Indian shares rose to mark their third day of gains in four after a retreat in crude oil prices eased concerns about vehicle demand in Asia’s third-biggest economy. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. were among the top gainers on the S&P BSE Sensex, which climbed 0.9% to close at 52,265.72 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by an equal measure. Both indexes have risen for three of four sessions this week. All but two of the 19 sub-sector gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by auto companies.  Regional peers were mixed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the risk of a recession. West Texas Intermediate sank toward $104 a barrel after closing at a six-week low on Wednesday. Tata Consultancy contributed the most to the Sensex’s gains, increasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 27 rose and 3 fell.

In rates, Treasury futures traded above Wednesday’s highs after tracking steeper gains for bunds sparked by weaker-than-expected euro-zone growth data, before fading much of the move. US yields richer by 3bp-5bp across the curve led by belly, richening the 2s5s10s fly by 3.5bp on the day; 10-year richer by ~3bp at 3.125% vs 16bp slide for German 10-year, widening spread ot ~165bp. Elevated recession risk put German 10-year yields on track for their biggest decline in more than three months. US auctions include $18b 5-year TIPS reopening at 1pm ET; ahead of the sale 5-year breakeven inflation is ~2.75%, near lowest level since January. Focal points of US session include Fed Chair Powell’s second day of congressional testimony and manufacturing survey data. Bunds futures rally, trading over a 300 tick range in high volumes before stalling close to 148.00. Yield curves bull steepen aggressively. German 2y yields crater over 20bps near 0.82%, trading 10bps richer to gilts and ~15bps richer to USTs. Peripheral spreads widen with short-end Portugal underperforming.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose 0.3% as the EUR tumbled on poor PMI data. The yen extended its rise as comments from an ex-policy official spurred bets that the Bank of Japan may intervene to halt the currency’s slide. Japan’s currency gained as much as 0.8% after Takehiko Nakao, the former head of foreign exchange policy at the finance ministry, said the possibility of the authorities intervening directly in foreign-exchange markets can’t be ruled out. Sterling eased against a broadly stronger dollar as a slide in global share prices prompted investors to sell riskier assets. Markets await UK PMI data, which is expected to show a drop in manufacturing and services sectors, adding to signs of a slowing economy.

In commodities, oil dipped initially in early trading before paring the entire loss, Brent crude back above $111 a barrel. Most base metals are trade lower: LME copper drops ~2%, LME tin underperforms declining over 8%. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,830/oz.

Bitcoin is firmer overall but continues to pivot the USD 20k mark and has struggled to gain any real traction during brief forays either side.

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the rest of the flash PMIs for June, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Q1 current account balance, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity for June. From central banks, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting in Brussels.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,755.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 401.04
  • MXAP up 0.1% to 156.60
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 519.03
  • Nikkei little changed at 26,171.25
  • Topix little changed at 1,851.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 21,273.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 3,320.15
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 52,208.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,528.45
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,314.32
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.47%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $1.0503
  • Brent Futures down 1.7% to $109.80/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,834.49
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.46% to 104.67

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Germany elevated the risk level in its national gas emergency plan to the second-highest “alarm” phase, following steep cuts in supplies from Russia.
  • India’s central bank appears to have ramped up intervention in the forwards market to slow the rupee’s decline and preserve its hard-earned reserves.
  • Russia faces yet another bond payment test this week, with just days remaining before it potentially slides into its first foreign default in a century.
  • India’s central bank appears to have ramped up intervention in the forwards market to slow the rupee’s decline and preserve its hard-earned reserves.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive after risk appetite slightly improved from the uninspiring lead from Wall St where stocks were choppy as tailwinds from lower oil prices and softer yields were offset by recession fears. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in real estate and consumer stocks, while Manufacturing PMI data remained in a firm expansion. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index hampered by currency inflows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were kept afloat with auto manufacturers lifted after China’s cabinet pledged to boost the auto industry, while markets also shrugged off initial cautiousness brought on by COVID concerns after Shenzhen required PCR tests for anyone entering a public venue.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Shenzhen is to require PCR tests for anyone entering a public venue, according to Bloomberg.
  • US State Department warned about reconsidering travel to China due to COVID lockdown risks, according to Reuters.
  • Former Japanese FX chief Nakao said continuing with YCC has many negative effects and that it is clear monetary policy is playing a role in the weak JPY, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses are pressured overall, but well off lows going into the US session, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%; pressure was seen post-PMIs which missed expectations and featured pessimistic internal commentary. The sectoral breakdown is mixed as such while individual movers are affected by numerous broker moves. Stateside, futures are now firmer on the session, ES +0.4%, having shrugged off the French/German/EZ flash-PMI induced risk move ahead of Powell’s second day of testimony.

Top European News

  • Majority of economists expect the ECB to hike the deposit rate by 25bps in July and 50bps in September, while the Deposit Rate is seen at 0.75% at year-end (prev. 0.25%) and there is a median 34% (prev. 30%) chance of a recession in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll.
  • Bulgarian Turmoil Deepens as Premier Loses Confidence Vote
  • Norway Steps Up Action With First Half-Point Hike Since 2002
  • Hedge Fund Trader Shah Struck Cum-Ex Trades With DekaBank
  • UK June Flash Services PMI 53.4; Est 52.9

FX

  • Poor preliminary Eurozone PMIs pull rug from under Euro; EUR/USD sub-1.0500 at worst, EUR/JPY under 142.00 vs almost 144.00 peak and EUR/GBP probes 0.8600 from circa 0.8641.
  • Buck benefits indirectly alongside Yen as risk aversion intensifies on heightened recession anxiety; DXY towards top end of 104.780-050 range, USD/JPY vice-versa between 136.25-135.12 parameters.
  • Pound pares some declines with assistance of solid UK services PMI, Cable keeps tabs on 1.2200 handle.
  • Franc makes way for rebounding Dollar, Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi bear brunt of ongoing losses in underlying commodities; USD/CHF back above 0.9650 from sub-0.9600, USD/CAD hovering under 1.3000, AUD/USD capped into 0.6900 and NZD/USD around 0.6250.
  • Norwegian Crown underpinned by bigger than expected 50bp Norges Bank hike and loftier rate path with caveats, EUR/NOK pivots 10.4800 vs near 10.5300 peak and 10.4400 trough.

Central Banks

  • Norges Bank Key Policy Rate (June-MPR): 1.25% vs. Exp. 1.00% (Prev. 0.75%); points to a 25bps hike in August (interim meeting). Click here for full details, reaction and newsquawk analysis.
  • Norges Bank Governor Bache says cannot rule out increasing rates by more than 25bps in future meetings.
  •  
  • NBH keeps its one-week deposit rate unchanged at 7.25%

Fixed Income

  • Bunds and OATs front-run latest broad and big bond bounce as PMI miss consensus by some distance.
  • Gilts and US Treasuries tag along with a lag post-solid UK services PMI and pre-US jobless claims, PMIs and Fed Chair Powell part 2.
  • Bunds reach 147.89 from 144.81 low, Gilts 113.36 vs 111.93 and 10 year T-note 117-16 compared to 116-25+.
  • Italy raises EUR 9.45bln with the BTP Italia bond, via Reuters.

Commodities

  • Crude complex remains pressured with specific newsflow limited and focused on known themes, WTI/Brent -0.5% having benefitted from the recent pick up in broader sentiment; note, the EIA release has been delayed.
  • Private US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +5.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline +1.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillates -1.7mln (exp. +0.3mln), Cushing -0.4mln.
  • US EIA said product releases scheduled this week will be delayed due to system issues, while it added the nat gas storage report will be released as scheduled on June 23rd but all other releases will be delayed, according to Reuters.
  • Germany reportedly fears that a planned ‘maintenance’ shutdown of the Nordstream 1 pipeline could be used by Russia to shut off gas supplies completely to Germany which would threaten its efforts to build stores ahead of winter, according to FT.
  • Germany declares Phase Two of Emergency Gas Plan due to supply cuts from Russia and high prices.
  • Spot gold is back below the DMAs it briefly surmounted yesterday, downside in wake of post-PMI USD upside.

US event Calendar

  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 226,000, prior 229,000
  • 08:30: June Continuing Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.31m
  • 08:30: 1Q Current Account Balance, est. -$275b, prior -$217.9b
  • 09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.2, prior 53.4
  • 09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 56.0, prior 57.0
  • 11:00: June Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 12, prior 23

Central Bank Speakers

  • 10:00: Powell Testifies Before House Financial Services Panel

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been another eventful 24 hours in markets, with recession fears making a prominent return after Fed Chair Powell made some of his most pessimistic comments to date on whether the Fed would be able to successfully engineer a soft landing. Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Powell said that a recession was “a possibility”, whilst the soft landing the Fed is seeking will be “very challenging”, which is a long way from what the Fed were saying at the start of the year. Similarly, Powell said that the Fed “know we need to have restrictive policy, and that’s where we’re headed”, which is in line with what the Report itself said last week, in that the FOMC’s price stability commitment was “unconditional”. So a further reiteration that the Fed are prepared to keep hiking rates to bring down inflation, and an acknowledgement that there could well be a bumpy ride as they do so.

However, even as Powell emphasised the Fed’s willingness to deal with inflation, those growing fears of a recession meant that Fed funds futures became more doubtful on the Fed’s ability to take policy into restrictive territory. For instance, the rate priced in by the December meeting actually came down -10.5bps yesterday, and since early last week we’ve seen nearly a full 25bp hike taken out of market pricing. The expected terminal rate also came down, with futures only seeing a peak of 3.61% in April 2023 before subsequent cuts.

With investors becoming increasingly sceptical about the Fed taking policy far into restrictive territory, sovereign bonds rallied strongly yesterday, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -11.9bps to 3.16%. That was driven by a decline in both real rates and inflation breakevens, and interestingly, the 10yr breakeven fell to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February yesterday, closing at 2.54%. In terms of the curve’s slope, the 2s10s steepened +2.2bps to 9.4bps, so still pretty close to inversion territory that has traditionally been a leading indicator of a recession. Meanwhile, if you look at the Fed’s preferred yield curve indicator that Powell has cited of the near-term forward spread (which looks at the 18m forward 3m yield minus the current 3m yield), that came down by -18.9bps yesterday to 176bps, which is the lowest it’s been in over 3 months, even if it still remains some way out of inversion territory.

Equities put in a mixed performance against this backdrop, with the S&P 500 oscillating between gains and losses before ending the day down -0.13%. Energy stocks were a major laggard after oil prices fell to a one-month low, with Brent crude down -2.54% over yesterday’s session to close at $111.74/bbl. And this morning those losses have accelerated further, with Brent crude down -2.52% to trade at $108.92/bbl, which is now -13% beneath its intraday peak above $125/bbl seen last week. Over in Europe the tone was even more negative, with the major indices including the STOXX 600 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-1.11%) all seeing noticeable declines. That coincided with growing fears on the energy side, and Germany’s economy minister Habeck said yesterday that “we must assume that Putin is ready to reduce the gas flow further”. Natural gas futures in Europe (+1.28%) hit a 3-month high against that backdrop, and this is only set to become more of an issue as we move closer towards the colder months of the year.

Staying on Europe, there was a similar rally in sovereign bonds to the US, with yields on 10yr bunds (-13.6bps) coming down from their post-2014 high on Tuesday. That was echoed elsewhere, whilst a fresh narrowing in peripheral spreads saw the gap between Italian 10yr yields over bunds reach their tightest in nearly a month, with a -2.0bps move to 191bps. Over in credit though, growing fears of a recession led to a widening in spreads, and iTraxx Crossover widened +15.4bps after 3 consecutive moves tighter.

Overnight in Asia, equities are similarly struggling to gain traction in light of those warnings about a US recession. Both the Nikkei (-0.33%) and the Kospi (-0.84%) have moved lower for a second consecutive session, although Chinese equities have put in a stronger performance, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.58%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both trading in positive territory with the Hang Seng (+0.96%) maintaining its morning gains. Outside of Asia, US equity futures have continued to move between gains and losses, but contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) are both pointing lower this morning.

Moving on to economic data, it’s an eventful day ahead as we get the flash PMIs for June. But we’ve already had the numbers out of Japan, where the services PMI hit its highest since October 2013 at 54.2, whilst the composite reading also accelerated to 53.2, which is the highest since November. The numbers from Australia showed a modest decline in June however, with the flash composite PMI down three-tenths on May’s reading to a 5-month low of 52.6.

Here in the UK, the main news yesterday came from the May CPI reading, where annual inflation rose to +9.1% in line with expectations. That’s the highest rate since March 1982, although core CPI did fall a bit more than expected to 5.9% (vs. 6.0% expected). Staying on the UK, there’s a couple of important political contests taking place in the form of two by-elections to the House of Commons as well. Both are in seats that had been won by the Conservatives at the last election, but where opposition parties are making a challenge, and represent an important test for Prime Minister Johnson’s authority, not least since he saw 41% of his party’s MPs vote no confidence in him at the start of the month. The one in Wakefield will be of particular interest, since that is a so-called “Red Wall” seat that Labour held for the entire post-war period before Johnson’s Conservatives gained it at the 2019 election. So an important bellwether as we move closer to the next election.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in June unexpectedly fell to -23.6 (vs. -20.5 expected), which is its lowest level since April 2020 at the height of the initial wave of the Covid pandemic. Separately, we saw Canadian CPI surprise on the upside, with the annual number coming in at +7.7% in May (vs. +7.3% expected), which is the fastest since 1983.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the rest of the flash PMIs for June, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Q1 current account balance, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity for June. From central banks, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting in Brussels.

 THURSDAY /WEDNESDAY NIGHT

  SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.95 PTS OR 1.62%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 265.53 PTS OR 1.36%    /The Nikkei closed UP 21.70 OR 0.08%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.14%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7071    /Oil UP TO 105.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 111.46 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7071 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7068: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/bank-runs-happening-across-china-people-complain-hard-to-obtain-cash_4552349.html

Bank Runs Happening Across China, People Complain Hard to Obtain Cash

People lined up outside a bank in Shanghai, China, on June 02, 2022. (Hu Chengwei/Getty Images)

After nearly one million Chinese people were unable to access their bank deposits in central China’s Henan province earlier this year, residents in east China’s Shanghai, south China’s Shenzhen, north China’s Dandong, and central-east China’s Jiujiang reported the difficulties they faced when trying to withdraw cash from their bank accounts.

Some banks will only serve a limited number of customers per day, some banks limit each client’s withdrawal to no more than 1,000 yuan (about $149), and others closed their branches. Even the ATM machines are empty.

Bank runs have been happening in the world’s second largest economy for over a week, which is unusual in China because most of the banks are state-run.

“The reason why the bank run issue hasn’t been solved is that China’s economic system is in crisis and the Chinese regime doesn’t have the ability to solve it,” Wang He, U.S.-based China affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times on June 22.

Zheng Yongnian, one of the economic advisors to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, published an essay on June 1, in which he pointed out that China’s economy is facing critical challenges, including over half of the foreign investments having left China, and China’s private businesses are struggling for survival due to a supply chain crisis and lack of cash.

Unsurprisingly, Zheng’s essay was removed from China’s internet soon after it was published, as Beijing’s propaganda system doesn’t allow people to comment on China’s economy.

Epoch Times Photo
Outside a bank in the Jing’an district of Shanghai, a worker talks to people who want to withdraw cash on June 1, 2022. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

Shenzhen Residents

“I have an account with the Agricultural Bank of China. In recent two days, people lined up in front of the branch. This is the first time I have seen such a long queue,” Chen, a resident in Shenzhen in south China’s Guangdong Province, told NTD Television, The Epoch Times’ sister media, on June 21.

The Agricultural Bank of China is one of the four main state-run banks in China. The other three are Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank. Chen said that he was told the bank had mistakenly frozen customers’ accounts. To unfreeze an account, the bank asked its customers to submit their Shenzhen resident card in person.

The resident card is a method the Chinese regime uses to control people’s moving from site to site. In general, the regime uses a household registration system to lock a person in one city. The person won’t have the basic resident’s rights if he/she doesn’t have a local household registration card. If a person works for a big company in another city for six months, the employer can apply for a resident card for the employee.

Hao, a resident in Longgang district in Shenzhen, told The Epoch Times on June 22 that freezing accounts is a method banks use to stop people from withdrawing cash.

“It’s hard to find an ATM machine that has cash inside [in Shenzhen now]. Actually, since about two months ago, it has been difficult to withdraw cash. I have tried the Agricultural Bank of China and the China Construction Bank. It’s not easy to withdraw cash,” Hao said.

In a video that went viral on June 21, a man said that in a Shiyan neighborhood in Bao’an district in Shenzhen, people lined up outside the Bank of China at 6:00 a.m., but were told that the bank had run out of money when it opened at 9:00 a.m.

The bank didn’t explain why it had run out of cash.

Bank Runs in Other Cities

Dandong is a city neighboring North Korea across the Yalu River in northeastern China’s Liaoning Province. In recent weeks, people in Dandong complained that they couldn’t get cash from their bank accounts no matter how high their balances were.

“It has been a week. Every morning, there’s a long line [of people] waiting to withdraw cash. However, when it’s our turn in the afternoon, the bank has run dry,” a Dandong resident said in a social media video on June 20.

The man who shot the video said that employers in Dandong deposit salaries into their employee’s bank accounts in the Dandong Bank. Employees in turn, withdraw the cash for their daily living expenses. Being unable to access cash will make it difficult for them.

Epoch Times Photo
People lined up in front of a bank in Dandong, China, on June 20, 2022. (public domain)

Another Dandong resident complained in a video that he went to several banks but was unable to get any cash.

In Jiujiang city of Jiangxi Province, residents reported that Agricultural Bank of China branches only allow customers to withdraw 1,000 yuan (about $149) or less if they don’t have a local household registration.

In eastern China’s Shanghai, people are also waiting in line outside the banks.

Huang, a local resident, told NTD Television on June 21 that banks will only serve 300 customers a day and this started on June 1 when the city officially opened up after a COVID lockdown. People have to go to the bank early in the morning, otherwise they won’t even enter the bank.

“I met a man in his 80s who began waiting in front of the bank between 4:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. He was counted as the 107th client of the day when the bank opened at 9:00 a.m. He had to stay there for several more hours because the bank wouldn’t allow him to enter if he missed his turn,” Huang said.

Unlike the United States, a lot of Chinese residents pay their gas, electricity, and water bills at a bank, and most retired people rely on cash because they don’t know how to make a payment using the internet or a smart phone, or how to pay for groceries using a bank card.

Nicole Hao

Nicole Hao is a Washington-based reporter focused on China-related topics. Before joining the Epoch Media Group in July 2009, she worked as a global product manager for a railway business in Paris, France. 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EUROPE

Europe is now in contraction phase as the PMI’s sent the Euro tumbling!

(zerohedge)

“Horror-Show” PMIs Send Euro Tumbling And Europe To Edge Of Recession

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 09:26 AM

Many Wall Street analysts were keeping a close eye on today’s PMI barrage around the globe – among the most popular leading indicators for key economic inflection points – for the latest indication that the economy is sliding into recession. They got that and more when the latest PMI data out of Europe was nothing short of a “Horror-show” as Bloomberg called it.

The Euro area composite flash PMI decreased by 2.9pt to 51.9 in June, far below consensus expectations of 54.0 and below the May print of 54.8.

Here are the key numbers (as an aside, responses were collected between 13 and 21 June):

  • Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.9, consensus 54.0, last 54.8.
    • Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 52.0, consensus 53.8, last 54.6.
    • Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.5, last 56.1.
  • Germany Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.3, consensus 53.0, last 53.7.
  • France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.9, last 57.0.
  • UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 53.1, consensus 52.4, last 53.1.

As Goldman explains in its PMI post-mortem, “the weakening was broad-based across countries and sectors, but skewed towards France and services.” Today’s data showed moderating momentum in services and a weak manufacturing sector, where the levels of PMI have now fallen into contractionary territory (i.e. recession).

The composition of the June report was squarely weaker than in May, with new orders, employment, new export and backlogs all declining in June. Notably, both new orders and new export orders are now at levels below 50, reflecting a slowdown in both domestic and foreign demand. Firms’ expectations also decreased further, with the gap between expected future and current output (a measure of pent-up momentum) currently around 1.4 standard deviation below its historical average. Suppliers’ delivery times improved for the third consecutive month in a sign of continued easing of bottlenecks in the manufacturing sector and, while price components moderated slightly, they remain near all-time highs.

Regional breakdown:

  • The German composite PMI decreased by 2.4pt to 51.3 in June, below consensus expectations. The composite decline was broad-based across sectors, with manufacturing output falling to levels below 50 again after a slight recovery last month. The composition of the June report showed broad-based declines across components, with new orders, employment, new export orders, and backlogs all declining in June. Firms’ expectations also edged down on the back of a weaker outlook for the manufacturing sector. Price pressures remain acute as both input and output price components remain near all-time highs but bottlenecks in the manufacturing sector continue to ease as suppliers’ delivery times improved further in June.
  • The French composite PMI decreased by 4.2pt to 52.8 in June, well below consensus expectations. As in Germany, the composite decline was broad-based across sectors, reflecting a moderation in services and a contraction in manufacturing output. The composition of the June report showed declines across new orders, employment, new export orders, as well as backlogs. Firms’ expectations of year-ahead output also declined meaningfully—after improving consecutively for the last two months—to below their historical average, reflecting a less optimistic outlook across both sectors. Suppliers’ delivery times improved slightly but both the input and output price components remain near all-time highs despite a slight moderation in the latter. The downside surprise in the June flash PMI is consistent with some components of the INSEE survey (also released this morning), which also showed a decline in its services and headline index, below consensus expectations, but at odds with the INSEE manufacturing index, which improved in June, ahead of consensus expectations for a decline.

The extent of the deceleration observed today was larger than expected and thus today’s data is consistent with expectations of moderating growth in services and further weakening in the manufacturing sector, eventually transforming into a full-blown recession. As such Goldman continues to forecast weak growth in the second half of the year and see risks as skewed towards the downside, particularly in Germany, if gas flows from Russia do not pick up following the end of the pipeline maintenance period in mid-July.

The dismal news understandably sent the EUR tumbling back below 1.05…

… while the sharp slowdown in Europe’s economy put German 10-year yields on track for their biggest decline in more than three months.

The biggest question, however, is whether Europe will slide into recession before the ECB has even had a chance to follow through with any of its hikes, which are supposed to begin as soon as next month… which is also when the European economy is now widely expected to contract, in another dire repeat of the events that pushed the continent into the sovereign debt crisis.

ECB

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

SWEDEN/FINLAND/NATO//RUSSIA

NATO Chief Calls For Sweden And Finland To Join ‘As Soon As Possible’

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 09:07 AM

Why is NATO so anxious to induct multiple countries near the borders of Russia into the fold without concern for the geopolitical consequences?  Probably because the war in Ukraine is not going so well.  Or, perhaps the goal is to deliberately create an even wider conflict.  Either way, NATO’s behavior suggests that there is considerable information that is not being revealed to the general public.

NATO Chief General Jens Stoltenberg has been pushing for swift approval of applications from Sweden and Finland, with Department of Defense officials in the US calling on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to quickly approve the requests.

  

With mainstream media propaganda constant for the past few months when it comes to the Ukraine situation, it has been hard to gauge the facts surrounding the conflict.  Only in recent weeks have there been admissions from Ukrainian leadership hinting at the true conditions on the ground.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself acknowledge that Ukrainian casualties are high:  60 – 100 per day.  Other sources indicate casualties of 100 – 200 soldiers per day.   The Ukrainians have to present a number that’s large enough to warrant more NATO armaments and money while making sure it’s not so high that it demoralizes their troops in the field.  

The narrative from the western governments and the media has been the exact opposite.  They claim that Russia has essentially “already lost” and that it’s only a matter of time before they are run out of Ukraine.  Regardless of what side you think is right or wrong in the war, the only way to evaluate the situation is to step outside the notions perpetuated by the media and look at the facts objectively.  The media will never offer an honest evaluation, that’s not what they are paid to do.

There is a very old military rule, possibly first illustrated by Sun Tzu in The Art Of War, that warns leaders to never start believing their own propaganda.  This is a mistake that America made in the Vietnam War.  It’s a mistake we made during our occupation of Afghanistan.  And, it seems to be a mistake NATO is making in their observations on Ukraine.  

Another explanation is that NATO is well aware of the facts on the ground, and the narrative they are creating about a failing Russian advance is meant for the western public only.  When the conflict goes south for the Ukrainians, as is already happening, and Zelenskyy is run out of the country, maybe the hope is that the public will be so enraged and in shock that they will support a military buildup in other countries neighboring Russia?  Or, even support American and European boots on the ground in Ukraine (beyond the “advisers” that are already there)?    

It’s hard to say, but the Kremlin has made it clear that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would represent an extreme escalation.  

Lithuania has added to the tensions by blocking exports from Russia traveling by railway to Kalingrad, the home of Russia’s Baltic fleet.  Russia has issued a warning that this represents a serious violation of Russia’s access to the region.

The speed at which NATO members are increasing potential conflict with Russia suggests that Ukraine is soon to fall and new battle lines are being drawn before this happens.  Russia has seen significant advances in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the majority of economic production including food production in the country has been cut in half.  This has been accomplished mostly without advanced weaponry such as cruise missiles and other more effective Russian armaments.  They have also not targeted primary utilities or infrastructure (such as electricity or water) in many areas of Ukraine, which suggests an attempt at limited collateral damage.  Escalation by NATO could trigger more aggressive actions by Russia within the region.

Again, it does not matter what “side” you support, the writing is on the wall.  NATO appears to already be preparing for Ukraine to collapse.  It’s important to accept logistical realities and not get caught up in the fervor of propaganda because failure can be a weapon as much as success.  When Ukraine falls, will western populations be so incensed that they can be tricked into an even larger war? 

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/KALININGRAD

NATO pushing for Kaliningrad CATASTROPHE by provoking Russia into global nuclear war – DC Clothesline

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:12 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

War never bings joy; it was never destined to be joyous. And the only peace that comes is to the dead.

In a Neocon delusion of winning a war with Russia there can be no joy. Other than realizing if such insanity occurs they will be met in an end in a fiery blaze that will kill many millions of innocents as a result.

As one watches this insanity and the joyous cheerleaders celebrating this rush to war, one also realizes that everyday life has lost its’ place. Everyday shortages are common place as everything taken for granted becomes a shortage. Even a simple refrigerator is in short supply due to a chip shortage. And diesel shortages loom by September ensuring that food shortages will be reality. Regardless of whether food abundance exists. And forget non essential deliveries as essential goods transportation will take priority. Safety in grocery store parking lots will be an issue and in America expect armed guards … this is already baked in as the flood of the worse comes from poor Central American neighborhoods on purpose flooding unchecked into America.

After suffering through years of mandated lockdowns and vaccine craze and fear mongering society is fragile as people try to recover a sense of normal. Only to find that normal is a illusion and a distant memory. Society is wresting with challenges that seen in a lifetime. Knowledge and skill is sadly lacking at time when new approaches need to be taken to remake industries and corporations to become revised and renewed engines of prosperity.

Everything is being found to be stretched out in time with new acceptance of new norms. Leasing a new vehicle can well mean you pay for options that do not work because of chip shortages. While housing construction runs into the reality of shortage that money can not fix, meaning time is extended for all development while costs escalate. No need for rate increases as this will already reduce economic activity, causing recession. But know that rate increases will come regardless, ensuring a higher level of joblessness for years.  And with such increases, pressure on the EU and emerging markets will grow causing dislocations and stress, and failure. Japan is already teetering on a road to hell as the Central Bank is the largest buyer and holder  of national debt. This is akin to an individual buying their own debt and sayings they are solvent. While ignoring the reality of insolvency.

Realizing this, the blindness of Neocons is astonishing because the reality is that  even if a conflict was winnable it is already lost because the necessary conditions for winning no longer exist, due to the incompetence of political engineering.  So madness suggests the nuclear option for which there is no win and just like the rest of things taken for granted, there is no reason to think that is in any better shape.

Whatever the future may hold for humanity, we can be sure that we will fall into a real near death time, where it will be obvious to everyone even the blind or deaf that we face a death moment from which a rebuilding must take place for society to move forward. And in this day, the neocons with their enablers will be cast from sight as mob rage will find its’ scapegoats and have its’ revenge in blood. One is reminded of the French with their guillotines. And the restaurants that still exist today in Paris, that take their standing from the days that people dined after the guillotines had their day. Only tomorrow, it will be weapons sold by the Ukrainians freely provided by Neocons that will take their toll on the streets of Paris and many other cities.

Enjoy this summer as it will be the last summer that resembles anything close to normal that we have known for some time.

Ukraine Bans Main Opposition Party, Seizes All Its Assets – Summit News

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:05 PM (29 minutes ago)
to

This is what the West is supporting. There is no democracy and no freedom as it is a brutal gun running, money laundering outfit, plain and simple.
The fact that Western leaders want their photo op with Zelensky suggests they are on board with this. And it begs the question of what these leaders really believe about the public in their own countries.
Imagine if similar action was happen in England, Canada, France, America, Germany and more. Is this what the west has fallen to? There can be no morality in promoting or supporting such a regime. Nor is there any justification to risk or endanger the lives of citizens of any western nation for such a regime. Perhaps the supply of weapons for free and a clear desire not to have “boots on the ground” is telling of reality over the narrative, if we care to see past the propaganda we are spoon fed.
Eventually the support will cease and this crooked regime will be vacated of power and it is more likely than not that Ukrainians in the Ukraine will see and remember Western nations as invaders and collaborators with lawlessness of this sponsored Neocon seizure of government in the Ukraine.
History of such prior behavior has had no learned effect from failed previous disasters. One only has to think of Vietnam and the resentment in neighboring countries like Cambodia or more recently Afghanistan. One day, Ukraine will be added to the list. One doubts that the inept political leadership we see even grasps that their actions are creating a debacle and resentment that will endure long after they leave. There will come a day when Ukrainian fields will find preference over nations outside of the west to the detriment of the west. Teh biggest loser will be Europe as attitudes change and are expressed.

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

end

VACCINE INJURY//

Vaccine Impact

Families Sue Governor DeSantis and State of Florida for Medically Kidnapping Their Children

June 22, 2022 5:28 pm

We recently reported how Florida Governor Ron DeSantis threatened parents in his state who took their children to “family friendly drag shows” by stating that he would ask Child Protection Services (CPS) to investigate these parents for “child endangerment,” although he has not issued similar threats against parents who choose to inject their children with deadly COVID-19 vaccines. Last week, Katie LaGrone with WPTV Channel 5 in West Palm Beach reported on a lawsuit with multiple families suing Gov. DeSantis and the State of Florida for medically kidnapping their children. This problem of state-sponsored child kidnapping and trafficking, is systemic in Florida, and NOT rare. “It’s happening all over Florida,” said attorney Octavia Brown of Community Law for Families and Children. She’s part of a team of attorneys who filed the complaint. When LaGrone suggested the lawsuit accused kidnapping by and within the system, Brown responded “what else do you call it? If there is someone who is connected to the system and they see a child that they want, they are going to get the child.” Brown is also a former insider who worked as an attorney for DCF and other agencies representing Florida’s foster care system. She explained how some staff members who collaborate to deliberately keep a child from being placed with biological relatives can get away with it. “This system is so bogged down”, she said. “When they [system staff] come in with these false stories or they come in with false allegations of caregivers having backgrounds, the judge is not going to say ‘oh let me look into that home study or let me look into that criminal record,” she explained. Brown said young parents and poor families are most vulnerable to what they dub as “internal diversion” practices. “Because those families don’t have the money to fight the bogus allegations,” Brown said.

Read More…


Keeping Moms With Their Newborns: A Team of Washington Lawyers and Advocates Works to Avoid Foster Care Separation at Birth

June 22, 2022 6:50 pm

When Jennifer Justice went into labor with her fourth child in 2020, she was determined that child protective services would not take this baby away.  Two of the Washington mom’s older sons lived with their grandparents, and social workers had removed her third child shortly after birth due to her opiate addiction. After the courts terminated Justice’s parental rights to that child, she had plunged into a deep depression, lost her job and then her home.  This birth, however, would be different. Justice had started drug treatment and someone new was by her side: a lawyer. “When the social worker first came in, and I tell her, ‘I have an attorney,’ their whole demeanor changed,” Justice, now 38, recalled. “I felt protected, I felt like I had arms around me and my child.”

Read More…

end

Families Sue Governor DeSantis and State of Florida for Medically Kidnapping Their Children

June 22, 2022 5:28 pm

We recently reported how Florida Governor Ron DeSantis threatened parents in his state who took their children to “family friendly drag shows” by stating that he would ask Child Protection Services (CPS) to investigate these parents for “child endangerment,” although he has not issued similar threats against parents who choose to inject their children with deadly COVID-19 vaccines. Last week, Katie LaGrone with WPTV Channel 5 in West Palm Beach reported on a lawsuit with multiple families suing Gov. DeSantis and the State of Florida for medically kidnapping their children. This problem of state-sponsored child kidnapping and trafficking, is systemic in Florida, and NOT rare. “It’s happening all over Florida,” said attorney Octavia Brown of Community Law for Families and Children. She’s part of a team of attorneys who filed the complaint. When LaGrone suggested the lawsuit accused kidnapping by and within the system, Brown responded “what else do you call it? If there is someone who is connected to the system and they see a child that they want, they are going to get the child.” Brown is also a former insider who worked as an attorney for DCF and other agencies representing Florida’s foster care system. She explained how some staff members who collaborate to deliberately keep a child from being placed with biological relatives can get away with it. “This system is so bogged down”, she said. “When they [system staff] come in with these false stories or they come in with false allegations of caregivers having backgrounds, the judge is not going to say ‘oh let me look into that home study or let me look into that criminal record,” she explained. Brown said young parents and poor families are most vulnerable to what they dub as “internal diversion” practices. “Because those families don’t have the money to fight the bogus allegations,” Brown said.

Read More…


end

Michael Every with today’s major topics

By The Powell Of Greyskull

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 03:10 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

I am assuming my post-FOMC Chair testimony headline above is the only one which refers to a cheesy 1980’s (and far worse 2022 Netflix rebooted) cartoon. However, I do so deliberately.

What we got in Congress yesterday WAS reminiscent of the 1980’s, with Powell refusing to take a 100bps hike off the table as if he were a muscled-up He-Man. Yet while another 75bps in July and more mighty blows were promised, Powell also suggested nobody was going to get really hurt. Ignore what Larry Summers just said about millions of people needing to lose their jobs for years, because a recession is “not inevitable,” says Powell: Oh yes it is, says Philip Marey.

Markets agree with Philip, not the guardian of Fedternia. Indeed, we are finally seeing a logically consistent movement: lower stocks, as US stocks head for the worst H1 since 1932, lower bond yields, lower commodities, and a slightly lower US dollar.

Real-economy indicators are looking ugly. US data are obvious. Europe can delude itself that there isn’t going to be a recession ahead, but the IEA is warning it to prepare for a total cessation of Russian gas flows, and Germany is listening, and that would feel like a depression. China keeps promising stimulus that doesn’t arrive, and its consumers won’t spend, or its banks productively lend. The strike-laden UK just saw another high inflation print driven by food and energy prices, driving gloom, while two by-election defeats today would suggest doom for the government.

Moreover, Korean 20-day export data this week were -10% m-o-m and -3.4% y-o-y. Hong Kong is seeing massive intervention to keep the HK$ pegged to the US$. Sri Lanka is asking civil servants to work a four-day week so they can grow their own food on Fridays. Broader financial stress indicators are also picking up.

So, the market now accepts recession is a risk, having been in total denial. Rightly so: we can’t expect energy or commodity prices to stay low if demand picks up; and we can’t bring new supply online for years.

Yet this still does not make the open and shut case for the Fed to pivot as the rapid resolution of a seemingly intractable problem, as in any good 1980’s cartoon. Indeed, the more the market heard ‘By the Powell of Greyskull; I have the power!… but no recession!’, the more stocks and oil actually came off their intra-day lows (before stocks dipped again). The market is pricing in less Fed tightening and earlier Fed cuts than before Powell held aloft his sword.

Much more of this, and oil and stocks will both be going up even as bond yields go down, and we will be back to logically inconsistent market moves that will force the Fed to keep punching harder. Yes, Powell repeated he can’t do anything about rising food and energy prices to Congress: but isn’t it amazing that at just the same time as 75bps got wheeled out, both food and energy are (temporarily) falling back?

Yesterday’s testimony also took place against the backdrop of a ‘Masters of the Universe’ struggle for global power: it got very little airtime compared to Powell, but the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit is now underway. Russia’s President Putin just used the forum to stress: (1) Russia is selling more oil to India and China – who are refining it, and selling it to Europe; and (2) BRICS are developing an alternative global reserve currency backed by commodities, and an international payments system, to reduce their use of USD and EUR.

China’s Xi Jinping also backed Russia’s world view that NATO was most responsible for the war in Ukraine, and called it “a wake-up call,” warning against “expanding military alliances and seeking one’s own security at the expense of other countries’ security.” Because China has never done that.

For those who haven’t been paying attention to geopolitics, this might be a shock: it is, however, exactly what I was flagging in my (largely unread) report, ‘Why ‘Bretton Woods 3’ Won’t Work’.

Let me repeat again that this proposed BRICS system is unlikely to work. For a start, India and China are at geopolitical loggerheads, which makes it BRI/C/S in reality. Worse, there is no history, trade data, or logic to suggest you can just staple together a few big net commodity exporters, with huge linkages to the West, to a massive net commodity importer, with huge linkages to the West, and expect this to work – or to retain those linkages to the West.

There was a story this week about a Chinese property developer taking payment in garlic and wheat: you want an alternative global economy and financial system based on that? More importantly, the West will react strongly to any BRICS movement towards breaking US$ global hegemony.

Most of the global financial system is based on credit, based on collateral, and so on the US dollar / Eurodollar. That digital green paper sits behind up to $50 trillion in ex-US annual trade-flow and financial liabilities, and vastly more including derivatives. That is backed by only $7 trillion in US$ FX reserves, $3 trillion of which sit in China to back/prop up CNY. It’s a bad, unstable, unfair, bubble-creating system backed by an increasingly dysfunctional hegemon. But it works, in its own way, and it has the all the benefits of the incumbent network effect.

A BRICS alternative is that global shadow banking, actual banking, and real trade flows should all start to accept credit based on a new digital FX with commodities as collateral instead. Which also implies people won’t be able to repay their Eurodollar commitments.

There are lots of ways the West can respond to this.

  • Hedge fund billionaires and Wall Street can say ‘We want in!’, which is possible given Western financial systems operate like mercenaries rather than an army (which is why there are no countries around today that operate their national defence on that basis.) If that happens, some rich Westerners get richer, but the West loses its global pre-eminence and the geopolitical power to act on issues like Ukraine and Taiwan.
  • Or the Fed can say anyone using a BRICS currency loses access to the US financial system. That would bifurcate the world. As we already see with sanctions against Russia, it would also mean the West, and third parties, doesn’t get the commodities (or industrial goods) that the BRICS produce. That means massive inflation in some places, deflation in others, and global depression, not recession. I wouldn’t rule it out, but the end-game is clear.
  • Or the Fed can keep raising rates to force commodity prices down, raising the collateral attractiveness of the US$ and reducing that of its new rival. That would mean recession – and it already does. It would imply a massive blow-up for those leveraged long commodities – as with crypto. It would also make getting hold of US$ even harder – but that’s what Fed swap-lines, for friends, would be for. This is obviously not what the markets think will happen, and I understand why. (“Because markets.”) However, it’s not cartoonish. It’s just taking monetary policy into the geopolitical dimension, where it always sits, and most so when potential monetary rivals appear.

Today we can listen to see if we get any more details from the BRICS. Then we don’t have to wait long for the rival G7 meeting, where we have very few He-Men or Men-at-Arms. The leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the US, UK, and Canada are all struggling, and only Japan’s PM Kishida is showing real confidence to plough ahead – as Jane Foley talks about the possibility of USD/JPY ploughing a fresh low of 140.

Then we get the NATO summit next week, as Estonia’s PM warns of the risk of the country being “wiped from the map”, and where we may see exactly what Xi was warning about in terms of expanded alliances and shifts of focus towards China. In short, a paper tiger may turn into a true BattleCat – although it will need the financial Powell of Greyskull to get there.

Or tell yourself none of this matters and that we have a happy ending ahead due to Fed rate cuts and more QE. Just recall He-Man’s sister She-Ra rode a unicorn: perhaps it excreted the M&Ms you are eating.



END

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka in a mess economically

(EpochTimes)

Sri Lanka’s Economy Has ‘Completely Collapsed’: PM

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sri Lanka’s prime minister is increasing efforts to revive the country’s “completely collapsed” economy amid a lack of foreign exchange reserves and severe shortages of essential items.

We are now facing a far more serious situation beyond the mere shortages of fuel, gas, electricity, and food. Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told parliament on June 22.

It is no easy task to revive a country with a completely collapsed economy, especially one that is dangerously low on foreign reserves,” he said.

Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe (C) visits a Buddhist temple after his swearing in ceremony in Colombo on May 12, 2022. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)

Sri Lanka will hold a credit aid conference with IndiaChina, and Japan for loan packages. Wickremesinghe said the goal is to reach a “general consensus” on the lending processes as each country has its own system for granting loans.

“However, there have been some conflicts and disagreements between us in the recent past. We are working towards resolving these and fostering friendly relations once again,” he added.

The government will also seek help from the United States, with representatives from the U.S. Treasury Department visiting Sri Lanka next week.

Australia said it would provide Sri Lanka with a $50 million development-assistance package following Wickremesinghe’s meeting with Australia’s Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil on Monday.

Wickremesinghe said that Sri Lanka has received a $4 billion credit line from India and requested additional loan assistance from the neighboring country.

A top-level Indian delegation is expected to meet with Sri Lankan leaders on June 23 to discuss extending an additional $500 million credit line to Sri Lanka for the purchase of oil, local media Daily Mirror reported.

“But even India will not be able to continuously support us in this manner. Even their assistance has its limits. On the other hand, we too must have a plan to repay these loans. These are not charitable donations,” he added.

Wickremesinghe said that negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had made progress, with the government expecting to reach an official level agreement with the IMF by the end of July.

“If we receive the IMF seal of approval, the world will once again trust us. It will help us to secure loan assistance as well as low-interest loans from other countries in the world,” he said.

“The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation is $700 million in debt. As a result, no country or organization in the world is willing to provide fuel to us. They are even reluctant to provide fuel for cash,” Wickremesinghe said.

Sri Lanka had also requested China to amend the terms of a $1.5 billion yuan-denominated swap facility that it signed last year, which stipulates that the fund can only be used provided that Sri Lanka has enough foreign reserves to last three months.Men on a scooter ride past the burnt buses near Sri Lanka’s former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s official residence “Temple Trees,” a day after they were torched by protesters in Colombo on May 10, 2022. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)

The country is on the verge of bankruptcy, with its foreign exchange reserves plummeting by 70 percent in the past two years. The government stated on April 12 that it was suspending foreign debt repayments.

About 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s $51 billion external debt is owed to China, and the government had requested help from China to restructure its debt obligations.

Wickremesinghe said that Sri Lanka would not be experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades if the government had acted sooner.

“If steps had at least been taken to slow down the collapse of the economy at the beginning, we would not be facing this difficult situation today. But we lost out on this opportunity. We are now seeing signs of a possible fall into the very bottom,” he said.Sri Lankans during a protest outside the president’s office in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on April 11, 2022. (Eranga Jayawardena/AP Photo)

Thousands of Sri Lankans have taken to the streets to protest the government’s mishandling of the country’s economic crisis, leading to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on May 9.

The country’s unprecedented economic crisis has left millions of its people in need of life-saving aid, with the severe shortages of essential medicines and frequent power cuts jeopardizing the country’s health care system.

The United Nations launched a worldwide public appeal on June 9 to provide $47.2 million of aid between June and September to 1.7 million people whose livelihoods and food security are most at risk.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0497 DOWN  0.0067 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

USA/ YEN 135.13   DOWN .613 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2200 DOWN   0.0052

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 52.95 POINTS UP 1.62%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 265.53 PTS OR 1.26%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.28%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 265.53 PTS OR 1.26%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 52.95 PTS UP 1.63% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .14% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 21.70 OR 0.08%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1826.75

silver:$21.14

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.39  UP 41  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.48%  DOWN 34  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.222% DOWN 1     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84%// UP 0   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.49  DOWN 30   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.425%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0496 DOWN  0.0068    or 68 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.83 DOWN 1.177  OR YEN UP  118  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2222DOWN  0.0029 OR 29  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0019 OR 19 BASIS pts  to 1.299236

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6986  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.7938

TURKISH LIRA:  17.35  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.222

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.044% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.176 DOWN 7 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.35 UP 37   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 68.77 PTS OR  0.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 231.69  POINTS OR 1.76%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 33.30 PTS OR 0.56% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 39.00 OR 0.48%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 173.52 PTS OR  0.80%

WTI Oil price 105,44   12: EST

Brent Oil:  110.48  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  53.46  UP  31/100        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.425

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0529 DOWN   .0034   OR  34 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2266 UP .0014  or  14 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.96 down 1.041//YEN up 104 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2937 up 28 (CDN dollar down 28 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 104.35

Brent OIL:  110.05

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.089 down 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.205  down 4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.36

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  53.46   UP  3/10 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 194.20 PTS OR .64 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 169.96 PTS OR 1.47%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.98 UP 0.03 PTS (0.05)%

GLD: 170.26 DOWN 1.05PTS OR 0.61%

SLV/ 19.37 DOWN .39 PTS OR 1.97%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Surge As Recession Fears Tank Rate-Hike Odds

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Ugly PMIs in Europe and the US sent yields tumbling across both continents and rate-hike odds fell significantly as investors pivoted from inflation fears to growth scares. Copper and Crude sold off (growth fears) and while stocks ramped late in the afternoon, they were oscillating wildly early on as they weakened on recession anxiety then strengthened on the post-recession rate-cut/QE hope.

Nasdaq led the chaos with a late-day buying-panic (nope, no fundamental catalysts) as stocks seemed committed to the post-recession reaction function rather than the actual recession…

Aside from the COVID lockdowns, this is the weakest level for US Macro Surprise Index since Aug 2011

Source: Bloomberg

So it’s no wonder that rate-hike odds are sliding fast… despite Powell’s “unconditional” commitment to fight inflation…

Source: Bloomberg

The market has basically adjusted to price in rate-hikes into September (ahead of the Midterms) and then an increasing chance of either a pause or actual rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude slipped lower…

And so did Dr. Copper, crashing to the lowest since Feb 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly outperforming the wings (5Y -10bps, 2Y -4bps, 30Y-6bps). Since CPI, 2Y is up 20bps, 30Y up around 4bps…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields plunged back to tag 3.00% – erasing all of the 50bps post-CPI spike…

Source: Bloomberg

European bond yields also plunged today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day flat with another overnight Asia rally dumped during the European session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the day higher, finding support at $20,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Elsewhere in the energy complex, US NatGas plunged 10% after inventories rose following the Freeport LNG closure and at the same time, EU NatGas soared after Germany elevated its ‘risk level’ on fears of Russian gas supply…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied early on as rate-hike odds eased, but was hit lower after Europe closed to end the day down. Still holding above $1800 for now…

Finally, we note that DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach’s favorite bond indicator – Copper/Gold – is signaling a notable leg lower in yields is overdue…

Source: Bloomberg

Did Dr. Copper price in the recession first and bonds are yet to catch down?

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Bonds & Gold Bid As PMIs Send Rate-Hike Odds Plunging

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 10:16 AM

This morning’s PMIs – full of recessionary indications, forward-looking pessimism, and deflationary signals – appear to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back of hawkish expectations. Rate-hike expectations have tumbled notably and subsequent rate-cuts are hovering at 75bps…

Source: Bloomberg

Specifically, the odds of 75bps rate-hikes in July and September are sliding fast (68% and 22% respectively now) and for December and February the odds of a single 25bps hike are evaporating…Simply put, the market appears to be pricing the end of this rate-hike cycle ahead of the MidTerms.

Source: Bloomberg

This ‘dovish’ shift has sent the 10Y yield tumbling back towards 3.00% – erasing all of the post-CPI spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is also rallying once again….

Stocks remain confused as to whether they should selloff on recession fears or rally on the expectations of easing and QE down the line…

Is this what Powell wanted?

ii) USA DATA

Initial Jobless Claims At 5-Month Highs As Layoffs Accelerate

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 08:39 AM

The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits for the first time was 229k last week, pushing the 4-week average to its highest since late-January.

Additionally, continuing claims rose very modestly from 1.31 million to 1.315 million Americans.

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the total; number of Americans on some form of dole rose over 14,000 to almost 1.3 million people…

We suspect things are about to accelerate rather notably in claims data as layoffs have very recently started to accelerate dramatically…

Source: LayoffsTracker.com

Mission Accomplished Mr.Powell?

end

Remarkable USA plunge in PMI’s due to drop in demand

(zerohedge)

US PMIs Plunge To 2-Year Lows Amid “Remarkable Drop In Demand”

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 09:53 AM

With European PMIs plunging in June, and US Macro Surprise data collapsing, it was perhaps somewhat surprising that analysts only expected a marginal drop in preliminary June US PMIs. And we were right to be surprised as the data printed dramatically below expectations.

  • US Manufacturing dropped from 57.0 to 52.4 (below 56.0 expectations)
  • US Services dropped from 53.4 to 51.6 (below 53.3 expectations)

Source: Bloomberg

The manufacturing print is the weakest since June 2020, and Services at 5-month lows (but very close to two-year lows too).

This dragged the US Composite PMI tumbled to 51.2 – a 5-month low – signaling notable weakness in Q2 GDP (and Q3 GDP)…

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter. The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 1% in June, with the goods-producing sector already in decline and the vast service sector slowing sharply.

“Having enjoyed a mini-boom from consumers returning after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services firms are now seeing households increasingly struggle with the rising cost of living, with producers of non-essential goods seeing a similar drop in orders.

“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to prior months.

“Businesses have become much more concerned about the outlook as a result of the rising cost of living and drop in demand, as well as the increasingly aggressive interest rate path outlined by the Federal Reserve and the concomitant deterioration in broader financial conditions.

Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.

“A corollary of the drop in demand was less pressure on prices, with the survey’s inflation gauges for firms’ costs and their selling prices falling sharply in June to suggest that, although still elevated, price pressures have peaked.”

So it seems Powell is getting his wish as the US plunges into recession… and that tanks inflation.

Suck it up, buttercup!

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

JPMorgan fires hundreds of mortgage bankers as the housing market breaks

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan Fires Hundreds Of Mortgage Bankers As Housing Market Breaks

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 06:25 PM

Late last week we warned that according to real-time indicators, such as soaring mortgage rates and collapsing demand, a housing market crash appeared inevitable. Today we got the clearest sign that the banks agree when out of the blue – or rather out of the “hurricane” –  JPMorgan announced it was cutting over a thousand home-lending employees and reassigning hundreds more after soaring interest rates dried up mortgage demand. 

Jamie Dimon pulled off his best Jean-Baptiste Emmanuel Zorg impression when the bank decided that more than 1,000 workers will be affected by the slowdown in housing, with roughly half fired and the other half moved to other (less paying) divisions within the bank, Bloomberg reports.

“Our staffing decision this week was a result of cyclical changes in the mortgage market,” a JPM spokesperson said while probably eyeing the record move in the 30Y mortgage which has doubled from just over 3% at the start of the year to a stunning 6.13%, a move which has unleashed an affordability crisis. 

JPM spokesperson continued: “We were able to proactively move many impacted employees to new roles within the firm, and are working to help the remaining affected employees find new employment within Chase and externally.”

Translation: we made the remaining mortgage bankers serve dessert in the cafeteria, and in a few weeks they will all be quietly fired for gross incompetence.

It’s not just JPM: Wells Fargo, recently the biggest mortgage lender among US banks (nobody knows anymore what Wells really does any more with all the rampant crime and corruption at the bank), has also been laying off and reassigning employees in its home-lending division, Bloomberg also reported. And earlier this month, real-estate giants such as  Compass and Redfin also announced plans to trim their workforces amid the cooling US housing market. Compass said in a regulatory filing that it will cut about 10% of its workforce, or about 450 employees, while Redfin plans to layoff about 6%, amounting to roughly 470 workers.

END

Netflix Cuts 300 Workers In Second Round Of Layoffs Amid “Difficult Transition” 

THURSDAY, JUN 23, 2022 – 01:32 PM

A spate of recent layoffs has added to investors’ fears that a “soft landing” might be out of the question and prepare for a recession as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates into a downturn.

Variety reports the latest job cuts have hit Netflix (again), set to cut 300 employees (or 3% of the employee base) on Thursday across multiple U.S. business functions. 

“Today, we sadly let go of around 300 employees,” a Netflix spokesperson told Variety. “While we continue to invest significantly in the business, we made these adjustments so that our costs are growing in line with our slower revenue growth. We are so grateful for everything they have done for Netflix and are working hard to support them through this difficult transition.”

Netflix made the first round of layoffs in May, cutting 150 employees and dozens of contractors and part-time workers. Increasing job cuts come as the online streaming service lost 200,000 subscribers at the end of Q1 and is projected to lose two million in Q2.

Q1 was the first subscriber decline since 2011. 

Netflix shares have lost a whopping 75% in value since late 2021. 

Variety expands more on Netflix’s struggles in the streaming space:

After years of easily winning the streaming warsNetflix has finally started to take a hit amid the onslaught of new and revamped competitors, including Disney’s Disney+, Comcast’s Peacock, Paramount Global’s Paramount+, and Warner Bros. Discovery’s HBO Max. With more new platforms for customers to choose from and splashy and high-budget titles popping up on those services, increased pressure has been put on Netflix to attract and retain subscribers as it’s been losing valuable library content to companies bringing their content back home for their own streamers.

Adding to Netflix’s struggle is the fact the media sector, not to mention the rest of the U.S. economy, is being pummeled by recessionary fears that have plunged the market into bear territory. But Netflix is not the only Hollywood company enacting layoffs amid the Wall Street chaos. Warner Bros. Discovery has also cut key staffers recently, as looks to reduce costs and its debt load following the completion of the merger between WarnerMedia and Discovery that led to the new company’s creation this spring.

Besides Netflix, Layoffs.fyi Tracker shows 832 startups have cut 137,584 jobs in the last two years. Here are the largest layoffs reported: 

Notice layoff announcements at startups are accelerating over the last several months as recession fears soar. 

Another website, Layoffs Tracker, shows the same:

One can only imagine if this is the beginning of a massive layoff cycle. A negative payroll print could come before the midterm elections as the Fed’s hiking sends the economy on the verge of recession. 

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams //SHORTAGES//etc/

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 23, 2022 Issue 6786Independent View of the News
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing – Bill Dudley, ex-NY Fed President
A recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months… 
    The central bank’s employment mandate is now subservient to its inflation mandate…
    Second, the new focus on price stability will be relentless. Fed officials recognize that failing to bring inflation back down would be disastrous…
    Third, the current economic expansion is uniquely vulnerable to a sudden stop…the production adjustment is likely to be abrupt, due to tight financial conditions, restrictive fiscal policy and tapped-out household savings… fiscal policy shaved more than 3 percentage points off annualized US economic growth in the first three months of 2022 — a drag that is expected to persist through 2023. As inflation outstrips wage growth, the personal savings rate has plummeted, from 26.6% in March 2021 to 4.4% this April…  Finally, economic history points to a hard landing. The Fed has never tightened enough to push up the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage point or more without triggering a recession…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-useconomy-is-headed-for-a-hard-landing/2022/06/22/4771d836-f21b-11ec-ac16-8fbf7194cd78_story.html
 
French central bank cuts growth outlook, sees higher inflation
The euro zone’s second-biggest economy was set to grow 2.3% this year, before slowing to 1.2% in 2023 and picking up to 1.7% in 2024… The central bank forecast that French inflation would average 5.6% this year before falling to 3.4% in 2023 and easing to just below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in 2024. In March, it had forecast inflation of 3.7% this year, 1.9% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/french-central-bank-cuts-growth-outlook-sees-higher-inflation-2022-06-21/
 
A new headache for the ECB – Italy, the eurozone’s third-largest economy, has debt of €2.759trn – almost 150% of GDP. A crisis there would pose an existential risk to the euro.
https://moneyweek.com/economy/eu-economy/605015/a-new-headache-for-the-ecb
 
US recession angst pushed US bonds 2 26/32 higher by the end of the first 32 minutes of NYSE trading.  ESUs were down 20.25 at the time, a relatively modest decline given the surge in bonds.
 
Powell’s semiannual testimony at the Senate Banking Committee commenced at 9:49 ET.
 
Powell Testimony HighlightsMarket pricing for additional rate hikes is appropriateFed is using its tools “pretty vigorously now” (Pure BS, no Fed Balance Sheet contraction yet)Economy is strong, can handle tighter policyFed is committed to reducing inflationUS inflation could face more upside surprisesFed rate hikes likely will NOT reduce food prices or gas pricesRate hikes will be decided ‘meeting by meeting’Sees ongoing rate hikes needed to tame hot inflationTightening aimed at balancing the job marketWe must restore price stability, and we willUS economy is very competitive, some sectors less soMost recent inflation indicators suggested we needed to accelerate pace of rate hikesWill continue to hike rates until there is clear proof that inflation is slowingThe Fed does NOT use rules to set policy in real-time decisions – WSJUS inflation more about demand than other countriesThe Fed aims to slow down growth, not reduce demand (Huh?!)Congress can invest in people, infrastructure (Didn’t they do that with Biden’s Trillions?)Fed may need to sell MBS at a future date (Still no QT! WHY?)Fed will give lots of transparency (so Street can front run) on MBS sale planWe do not want to reduce wages; we want a more sustainable rate of increase (Wages trail CPI!)It will be very challenging to achieve a soft landing; recession is a possibility“Inflation was high before the war in Ukraine broke out.”The Ukraine-Russia War is NOT the primary driver of inflation 
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress – Chair Jerome H. Powell
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20220622a.htm
 
While Powell was testifying, Philadelphia Fed President Harker stated on Yahoo’s finance channel, “We could have a couple of negative quarters (of GDP growth)… We still have very tight labor markets… we’re going to continue, in my view, to have tight labor markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-harker-demand-softening-june-22-134940198.html
 
ESUs and stocks tumbled during Asian trading.  After hitting a bottom (3693.25 at 4:05 ET, they rallied until 7:32 ET.  After a 20-handle retrenchment, ESUs rallied modestly for the NYSE open.  They then commenced a near-vertical rally at 9:24 ET.  ESUs surged 71 handles from 9:24 ET until 10:25 ET.  The rally then became more pedestrian.  ESUs hit 3797.50 at 10:37 ET, +80 handles from 9:24 ET.
 
While ESUs surged during early NYSE trading, bonds held most of their rally.  They were still +2.5 points when ESUs hit 3797.50.  WTI oil was -5.10 at the time; gasoline was -10.55 cents.  The Dollar Index was -.264; gold was +4.80.  The NY Fang+ Index was +1.25%.
 
To reiterate, when stocks get crushed in Q2, they tend to rally sharply near the end of Q2 on determined performance gaming.  This rally tends to morph into the 4th of July rally.  Then, the usual suspects herald the ‘summer rally’, which encourages investors and traders of various classes to get jiggy on stocks.
 
Also, to reiterate, the early incontinent buying is characteristic of traders.  Organic buyers do not, and most cannot, buy stocks in that manner.
 
After the ESU peak at 10:37 ET, stocks and equity futures retreated.  The rally for the European close arrived on schedule; it ended at 11:33 ET.  ESUs sank to 3759.00 by 12:08 ET.  Chicago Fed President Evans halted the Noon Balloon.
 
Fed’s Evans: Will Be Necessary to Raise Rates ‘A Good Deal More‘ –WSJ 12:55 ET
Evans: Supports Quick Increase in Federal Funds Rate – WSJ 12:55 ET
Evans: Supported Fed’s 75-Basis-Point Increase at June FOMC – WSJ 12:55 ET
Evans: Many Risks Facing Economy Are Too Downside – WSJ 12:55 ET
Evans: Agrees Monetary Policy Will Need Restrictive Setting – WSJ 12:55 ET
Fed’s Evans: Will Need to Raise Interest Rates ‘a Good Deal More’ over Coming Months – BBG
 
The rally resumed at 13:05 ET.  Traders ignored Powell, Harker, Dudley, Evans, and other negative news on Wednesday because, as we noted in our missive for Tuesday, ‘tis the season for stocks to rally.
 
By the VIX Fix, ESUs and stocks made new session highs.  Bonds remained firm at +2 19/32.  Part of the rally might have been for a Big Guy Teleprompter reading on inflation near the VIX Fix.
 
@TPostMillennial: Biden: “I’m calling on Congress to suspend the federal gas tax for the next 90 days.”
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1539671627893538816
 
Biden: “By suspending the 18-cent federal gas tax for the next 90 days, we can bring down the price of gas and give families just a little bit of relief. I call on the companies to pass this along, every penny of this 18 cents reduction, to the consumers.”  https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1539676411128053765
 
A gas tax holiday sounds fantastic. But there’s a reason Obama bashed it as a ‘gimmick’
Future president Barack Obama… dismissed the idea as a political “gimmick” designed purely to win votes… First, a gas tax holiday would do nothing to fix the supply shock driving up prices… it would push demand in the wrong direction… https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/21/business/gas-tax-holiday-biden/index.html
 
@townhallcom: Biden to companies that run gas pumps: “This is a time of war. Global peril. Ukraine. These are not normal times. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you are paying for the product. Do it now. Do it today. https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1539673078992601088
     Biden calls criticism that he’s restricting domestic oil production “nonsense.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1539671861272883200
 
@greg_price11: Biden: “For all Republicans criticizing me for high gas prices in America, are you now saying we were wrong to support Ukraine and stand up to Putin? Are you saying that we’d rather have lower gas prices in America than Putin’s iron fist in Europe?” (“It is a tale. Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.”)  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1539674290072834049
 
@RNCResearch: Joe Biden has spent his 50+ year political career doing one thing: lying.  He’s a total fraud who will say anything for power. (Best of Biden Lies video at link)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1539654302964367360
 
@IAPolls2022: @QuinnipiacPoll (leans left): Biden Job Approval: Approve 33%, Disapprove 57%; Hispanics: Approve 29%, Disapprove 53%   1,542 A(dults) / 06/17-06/20  https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release
 
After the Big Guy’s staged deceit, ESUs and stocks retreated.  The dynamic of ESUs and stocks rallying into presidents’ addresses is a well-established pattern.  ESUs and stocks had a transitory and modest pre-last hour rally.  It ended at 15:04 ET; ESUs and stocks then sank.  At 15:50 ET, someone juiced ESUs 8 handles in 2 minutes.  But ESUs fell into the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Equities soared during early NYSE trading – exactly like on Tuesday
Bonds rallied sharply
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJTA sank 1.2%
For the 2nd consecutive session, stocks went listless after early frantic trader buying
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is the rebound rally from the prior week’s historic decline over?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3759.77
Previous session High/Low3801.79; 3717.69
 
@TPostMillennial: Pfizer’s CEO is asked if people will have to take a COVID shot every year: “I’m almost certain about it.”   https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1539642606832852992
 
Olaf Scholz aide’s comments on future links with Russia trigger dismay
German foreign policy adviser Jens Plötner says relations with Moscow as big an issue as arms to Kyiv
https://www.ft.com/content/e1deaa1d-e87f-49c9-8db2-34728155a284
 
A Woke Mandate for the Federal Reserve
Biden endorses racial equity as a third central bank priority.
    President Biden recently promised in these pages not to interfere with the Federal Reserve. Yet last week he endorsed a House bill that would add racial equity to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. How does the White House square this contradiction?
    The House bill passed last week 215-207 with little media notice. But it deserves attention because it reveals how the Biden Administration and Democrats plan to politicize monetary policy and financial regulation…  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-woke-mandate-for-the-federal-reserve-racial-equity-congress-house-joe-biden-11655659047
 
@mrglenn: The problem with Twitter is that everyone agrees that there are a lot of stupid people on it but nobody wants to admit that it’s them.
 
Today – Tuesday’s incontinent buying of US equities and the rabid buying during early NYSE trading yesterday alleviated the short-term oversold condition for stocks.  The afternoon apathy for stocks, and the last-hour decline suggest the rebound rally needs some ‘backing & filling’ to reenergize buyers.
 
From yesterday’s King Report: If stocks rally early, there should be a spirited retrenchment after Powell is finished.  If Powell is more hawkish than expected, equity traders will be unhappy.
 
The June ISM surveys could impact trading, especially if the Atlanta Fed releases an update GDPNow forecast that sports a negative reading for Q2 GDP.  Last week, the GDPNow Model fell to zero for Q2.
 
ESUs hit -25.00 at 19:38 ET.  USUs are +5/32 and ESUs are -10.25 at 20:20 ET. 
 
Expected econ data: Initial Jobless Claims 226k, Continuing Claims 1.32m; Q1 Current Acct -$275.0B;
June S&P US Mfg PMI 56, Services PMI 53.5, Composite 52.8; June KC Fed Mfg Activity 15; Powell is likely to reiterate his Senate remarks at House Financial Services Committee 10:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4102; 100-day MA: 4263; 150-day MA: 4392; 200-day MA: 4417
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,727; 100-day MA: 33,548; 150-day MA: 34,236; 200-day MA: 34,454
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4251.19 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3875.35 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3699.57 triggers a sell signal
 
The 80-page Senate gun control bill does NOT mention guns until page 25.  The bill is mostly a pork-laded feast for special interests.  It increases funding for the FBI, Medicaid, the Education Dept. etc.
 
GOP Sen. Josh @HawleyMO: Here we are voting to move on a bill negotiated entirely behind closed doors, released only an hour ago, that no one has had time to fully read, that ignores the national crime wave & chips away instead at the fundamental rights of law abiding citizens. NO
 
GOP @SenTomCotton: This bill won’t stop the violent shootings by deranged criminals. But it will restrict the freedoms of law-abiding Americans and put too much power in the hands of politicians and political officials. Stopping gun violence starts with more funding for police and tougher sentences for the criminals who violate gun laws—not taking away due process from law-abiding gun owners.” https://t.co/VMJaxP6014
 
@JackPosobiec: Democrats joking they should put up billboards ‘thanking’ the Republican Senators who voted for Biden’s Red Flag bill to split up the primaries, per WH staffer
    Biden Admin officials are referring to the Senator as ‘Cave-In Cornyn,’ per WH staffer
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson Blasting Senate RINOs Over Gun Control Deal w/ The Left & Their Plans to Sell Out on Immigration: “Has there ever been a greater more brazen sellout of any group of voters than what Republicans Senators Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn & the rest are doing right now?” https://t.co/LuY8FdN801
 
After engineering the GOP’s compromise on the Senate gun bill, GOP Sen. Cornyn told Dem Senator Padilla that ‘immigration is next’.  This infuriated Republicans who feared another GOPe sellout.
 
John Cornyn Says Comment to Senators About Immigration Deal Was a Joke
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) insisted on Wednesday morning that he was joking when he made a comment to other senators on Tuesday night promising an immigration deal after the gun control deal he negotiated in the Senate.  “The Democrats and their allies in the media really can’t take a joke. There’s no secret amnesty bill,” Cornyn told Breitbart News on Wednesday morning. His office told Breitbart News that the senator was joking and there are no immigration negotiations nor are there expected to be.
   After Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) tapped Cornyn to negotiate a deal on gun control, he was reported to on Tuesday night promised to move forward on a deal on amnesty.  “First guns, now it’s immigration,” Cornyn told Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA).  “That’s right, we’re going to do it,” said Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)… The blowback was severe though, and now Cornyn is saying that comment was a joke.
    Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Cornyn have continued to push for amnesty with the help of Democrat allies, including Sens. Padilla and Dick Durbin (D-IL), the Senate Democrat whip…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/06/21/john-cornyn-pledges-to-sell-out-america-on-amnesty-after-caving-on-gun-control/
 
Georgia primary: Collins wins GOP nomination, defeating Trump-backed candidate Vernon Jones
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-primary-mike-collins-wins-gop-nomination-defeating-trump-backed-candidate-vernon-jones
 
Trump backed two losing GA GOP Primary candidates.  In suburban Atlanta’s 6th District, Rich McCormick beat Jake Evans.  Former President Donald Trump had endorsed both Jones and Evans…
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/06/22/georgia-gop-picks-collins-and-mccormick-in-congress-runoffs/
 
Oz drops Trump branding in general election shift
Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, is quietly shifting his campaign messaging away from former President Trump as he transitions into what’s likely to be one of the most hotly contested Senate elections of the midterms…Trump was a heavy staple of Oz’s primary campaign, showing up frequently in his ads run even before the former president endorsed him in mid-April…
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/22/dr-oz-trump-endorsement-pennsylvania-senate
 
DeSantis Leads Trump (39% to 37%) in Hypothetical 2024 Matchup (New Hampshire)
The University of New Hampshire conducted a similar poll in October 2021. That survey found Trump with 43% support and DeSantis with 18%…
https://dailycaller.com/2022/06/22/ron-desantis-leads-donald-trump-poll-new-hampshire-2024/
 
@IAPolls2022: President: 2024 General Election (New Hampshire): (D) Joe Biden 50% (+7), (R) Donald Trump 43%; (R) Ron DeSantis 47% (+1), (D) Joe Biden 46% @UNHSurveyCenter 06/16-20 / 845 LV
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewconten
 
Jan. 6 panel revises hearing schedule, citing new evidence… footage from documentarian Alex Holder, who had access to Trump and his family before and after Jan. 6…
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/22/jan-6-panel-revises-hearing-schedule-00041384
 
NYT: Ivanka Trump expressed a different view on the election to a filmmaker.
Ivanka Trump… told a documentary film crew in the middle of December 2020 that her father should “continue to fight until every legal remedy is exhausted” because people were questioning “the sanctity of our elections.”… it shows Ms. Trump using a different tone in describing her father’s efforts to overturn the outcome than she did in the portion of her deposition to the House committee that has been made public so far (Ivanka said she thought there was no vote fraud.)
    The filmmaker was connected to Mr. Kushner by Jason Greenblatt, a former lawyer at the Trump Organization and then the White House envoy to the Middle East. The film was envisioned as a legacy project for Mr. Trump, according to two people familiar with how it came about.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/politics/ivanka-trump-election.html?smid=tw-share
 
@RaheemKassam: As with every Trump-era flub, it was Jared Kushner behind it, in his desperate, manlet attempt to be of any relevance to anything, ever.  If Trump even CONSIDERS bringing this clown back in next time, his own party should impeach him.
 
Officer husband of slain Uvalde teacher was detained, had gun taken away after trying to save wife
Texas DPS director said Eva Mireles told her husband she ‘had been shot and was dying’
    “And what happened to him, is he tried to move forward into the hallway,” McCraw said. “He was detained and they took his gun away from him and escorted him off the scene.”…
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2022/06/21/officer-husband-of-slain-uvalde-teacher-was-detained-had-gun-taken-away-after-trying-to-save-wife/
 
Chicago cops barred from chasing people on foot who run away
Under the policy, officers may give chase if they believe a person is committing or is about to commit a felony, a Class A misdemeanor such as domestic battery, or a serious traffic offense that could risk injuring others, such as drunken driving or street racing…  https://trib.al/jHKsmaB
 
@ChicagoContrar1: Only in Chicago could the shooting deaths of two, armed gang members be declared perfectly within CPD use-of-force order but result in restrictions placed on police pursuits.  Chicago’s criminals are amusing themselves with the powerlessness of CPD.  Residents will pay the price.
 
Our founders never intended for Americans to trust their government. Our entire Constitution was predicated on the notion that  government was a necessary evil, to be restrained and minimized as much as possible.” – GOP Senator Rand Paul.

Greg Hunter interviewing 

SEE YOU ON MONDAY

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