SEPT 16/GOLD CLOSED UP $5.70 TO $1674.50//SILVER CLOSED UP $0.08 TO $1937//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $2.49 TO $906.50//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $23.40 TO $2123.10//FED EX WARNS THE WORLD THAT WE ARE IN A DEEP RECESSION AND THEY WILL NO LONGER GIVE FOREWARD GUIDANCE//DOW WAS DOWN 139.60//COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT/CHINES YUAN BREAKS THE 7 BARRIER AND THE BRITISH POUND AT ITS ALL TIME LOWS BREAKING 1.14//EUROPEAN/UK UPDATES ON THEIR ENERGY CRISIS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 237 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 31 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 6 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 454 188 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 6 4 905 C ADM 6
total notices so far: 5333 contracts for 533,300 oz (16.587 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 59 NOTICES FILED FOR 295,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 6478 : for 32,140,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $5.70
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.08
AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILION OZ INTO THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 469.630 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1161 CONTRACTS TO 134,504. AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.25 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.06) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 868 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; WE DID HOWEVER HAVE STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 205,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -166
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTACTS for 11 days, total 10,382 contracts: 51.910 million oz OR 4.719 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (943 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 51.910 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 51.910 MILLION OZ///
RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1161 WITH OUR $0.25 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 127 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// SOME SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 205,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1034 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.170MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.
WE HAD 59 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 295,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6863 CONTRACTS TO 471,278 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:—1440 CONTRACTS.
.
THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $30.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND /STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 69,200 OZ //NEW STANDING 17.863 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $30.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 15,282 OI CONTRACTS 47.53 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8419 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 471,278
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,722 CONTRACTS WITH 8303 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8419 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,722 CONTRACTS OR 52.012 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8419) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (8303): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,282 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 69,200 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
29,166 CONTRACTS OR 2,916,600 OZ OR 90.72 TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2651 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 90.72 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 90.72/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.56% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 90.72 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1161 CONTRACT OI TO 134,504 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 127 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 127 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 127 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1161 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 127 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1034 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.17 MILLION OZ
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 73,52 PTS OR 2.30% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 168.69 PTS OR 0.89% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 308.26 OR 1.11%. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0097//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0222// /Oil DOWN TO 85.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 91.76 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6863 CONTRACTS TO 471,278 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $30.20 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (8419 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 8419 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :8419 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8419 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 15,282 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8419 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 6863 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $30.20. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (17.863),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 17.863 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $30.20) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,282 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS HUGELY ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 52.012 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (17.863 TONNES)…
WE HAD XXX CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,282 CONTRACTS OR 1,528,200 OZ OR 47.53 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 214,328/// fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 288,236/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 16
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5333 notices 533,300 OZ 16.587 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks: 22,698.610 oz 706 kilobars
ii) Out of JPMorgan: 16,075.500 oz (500 kilobars)
total: 38,774.110 oz
total in tonnes: 1.206 tonnes
Adjustments: 1
JPMorgan/dealer to customer: 97,571.154 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.
For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 879 contracts having GAINED 492 contracts .
We had 200 notices filed on THURSDAY so we gained 692 contracts or an additional 69,200 oz
will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.
October LOST 1024 contracts DOWN to 42,068
November LOST 83 contracts to stand at 234
December GAINED 7030 contracts UP to 383,036
We had 469 notice(s) filed today for 46,900 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 454 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 469 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 188 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5333) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 879 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 469 x 100 oz per contract equals 574,300 OZ OR 17.863 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices filed so far (5333) x 100 oz+ (879) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (469} x 100 oz} which equals 574,300 oz standing OR 17,863 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 17.863 TONNES (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)
WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6428 x 5,000 oz = 32,140,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(191) and the number of notices served upon today 59 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,428 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (191) – number of notices served upon today 59) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 32,800,000 oz. .
We have an inventory of 44.516 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 32.800 MILLION OZ represents 73.68% of that category of silver.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//
SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES
AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 962.01 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///
SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 469.63 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives (not counting nonvoting seats for D.C. and some U.S. possessions) and all of them are up for election in November. Right now, the Democrats control the House with 219 Democrats versus 211 Republicans (there are five vacancies).
It takes 218 votes to control the House. This means if the Republicans hold the seats they have and pick up just seven seats from Democrats, they will control the House.
Will this happen? The 2022 election cycle is more challenging to predict than usual because it’s the first election since the 2020 Census that the House map had redrawn to reflect population gain or loss on a state-by-state basis.
Texas gained two House seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon gained one each. The losers were California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which lost one seat each.
The new district maps favor Republicans on the whole. Another factor favoring the Republicans is that voters often turn back to the party opposing the incumbent president, either out of dissatisfaction with their presidential choice or simply to balance the scales in ways that keep any one party from becoming too powerful.
The average loss for the president’s party in a first-term midterm since 1982 was 30 seats. If that were the only information I had, my forecast would be that the Republicans would gain 30 seats this November. That would put the House at 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats, a solid 47-seat majority.
Interestingly, a RealClearPolitics forecast based on the average of numerous polls has a forecast of 219 Republicans and 182 Democrats, with 34 seats in the too-close-to-call category.
If those toss-ups were decided in the same ratio as the likely winners (55% Republican to 45% Democrat), that would sort the undecided into 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats. That would produce a final House of 238 Republicans and 197 Democrats, almost exactly the result that the historical track record predicts.
But can we go beyond statistics and polls to discern idiosyncratic factors that could push the results away from the central tendency? There are two.
The first is the trend of Hispanics and African-Americans toward Republicans and away from Democrats.
The Hispanic vote has historically been around 70% for Democrats, but recent polls show the Republicans may capture more than 50% of the Hispanic vote this time because Hispanics are trending conservative and are culturally anti-abortion, anti-crime and in favor of controlling the border.
Hispanics make up about 20% of the total population. If you shift 20% of voters by 20% in preference, that yields a 4% gain for Republicans in the overall vote. With many districts split close to 50/50, a four-point pickup is huge. We’ve already seen this dynamic with Republican gains in seats on the Texas/Mexican border that were solidly Democratic until this year.
The same trend is clear in the African-American community. They are 12% of the electorate and vote about 90% Democrat. However, recent voting results and polls show that the African-American vote could go as much as 20% for Republicans this time.
A 10% gain in a 12% community adds another 1.2% to the Republican column. Crime and the economy are the big issues for African-Americans. Combined with the Hispanic shift, this could put over five percentage points in the Republican column, enough to tip a lot of close races to Republicans.
The second trend that could push the results away from statistical tendencies is Biden’s very low approval ratings. Right now, Biden’s approval rating is 41.8% based on the average of 11 major polls. However, the polls contained in the average include some conducted as long ago as Aug. 15 (Marist) or Aug. 12 (NBC News) when Biden was riding high based on some legislative accomplishments.
The more recent polls show Biden at 38% approval (Reuters, Aug, 30). So it is likely that Biden is in a real-time downtrend back toward the 39% level he held most of the summer.
Based on these idiosyncratic variables, it seems reasonable to push the expectation of 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats to an adjusted result of 245 Republicans to 185 Democrats, a 34-seat gain for Republicans, leading to a 60-seat Republican majority.
In summary, my forecast for the 2022 midterm House result as of now is: Republicans – 245 seats, Democrats – 190 seats.
Forecasting the outcome in the Senate is both easier and harder than forecasting the House. It’s easier because there are fewer races and even fewer contests that are genuinely competitive. It’s harder because the smaller sample size makes it more difficult to use statistical methods. We have to go state by state and candidate by candidate to produce an accurate forecast.
The Senate has 100 members, two from each state. The current split is 50 Democrats/independents and 50 Republicans. Under the Constitution, the president of the Senate, Kamala Harris (the vice president), can break a tie vote.
This puts the Democrats in control of the Senate even with the 50/50 split.
There are 35 Senate seats in play this election. The Republicans are at a slight disadvantage going in because they currently hold 21 of the 35 seats being contested, whereas the Democrats only have to defend 14 seats. The good news for Republicans is that 16 of the 21 seats they are defending are rated “Solid” or “Likely” to stay Republican by The Cook Political Report.
The Democrats have nine out of 14 seats they are defending rated “Solid” or “Likely.” This means that only 10 of the 35 Senate seats in this election are truly competitive. Control of the Senate will come down to those 10. The Republicans and Democrats currently hold five of the competitive seats each.
To control the Senate, either party has to hold their five competitive seats and take one from the other party. If you lose a seat, you have to pick up another just to stay even. It’s that close.
My current best estimate is that Republicans will retain Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Likewise, the Democrats should retain their seats in Colorado and New Hampshire. This means control of the Senate comes down to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
If that list seems familiar it should. Those were the same five states that were hotly contested in the 2020 presidential race. All five went for Biden. Although those remaining races are all close, I rate Nevada and Georgia as wins for Republicans.
Those two wins represent a pickup of two Senate seats for Republicans since both are currently held by Democrat incumbents. I rate Arizona a win for Mark Kelly, which is a hold for the Democrats.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both extremely close, but right now one would have to rate those as wins for the Democrats. That’s a pickup of two for the Democrats since both seats are currently held by Republicans.
If that forecast holds, we’re back to a 50-50 Senate. A few states would change from Democrat to Republican (Nevada and Georgia) or from Republican to Democrat (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) but the total 50-50 split would be unchanged.
I have one other forecast: The current forecast will change. They always do when you’re still two months away.
We could see Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tip Republican over the next two months. Georgia could remain in the Democratic column. All I can say is I’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated every step of the way.
A prudent investor would keep an above-average allocation to cash, both to withstand the volatility from potential wild cards and to profit from attractive entry points on certain assets while others are losing fortunes.
Strap in, it’s going to be a bumpy but fascinating ride.
GOLD/SILVER
END
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
More central banks are engaging in gold lending and swaps and probably cannot get their physical gold back
(Central Banking Magazine/London/GATA)
More central banks engaged in gold lending and swaps last year
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-15 20:12Section: Daily Dispatches
“Ninety-nine-point-nine percent of the central bankers I know don’t even know they have gold in their vault. They don’t spend one millisecond thinking about gold during the day. It’s not on their agenda, so to think that they try to manipulate gold to suppress the gold price — forget it. They don’t even think about it.”
— Pierre Lassonde, founder and chairman emeritus of Franco-Nevada Corp., former president of Newmont Mining, and former chairman of the World Gold Council, during an interview with MineWeb in October 2013.
More Central Banks Engage in Gold Lending and Swaps
From Central Banking magazine, London Thursday, September 15, 2022
The number of central banks active in gold lending and swaps increased slightly last year, the Reserves Benchmarks 2022 reveal.
Overall, 12 (27.27%) of the 44 participating central banks said they are active in these activities. This is slightly higher than the 10 central banks engaged in these transactions among the 44 participants in last year’s study.
Additionally, just under half (47.73%) of institutions said they use derivatives for currency hedging. And over 60% resort to securities lending
end
Chris Powell
GATA
end
Your weekend reading material. This one is extremely important!!
(Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Inflation is turning hyper
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-15 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, September 15, 2022
Money supply took off during covid lockdowns. It is now about to take off again to pay everyone’s energy bills. But that is not all.
Demands for currency and credit to be conjured out of thin air to pay for everything will be coming thick and fast. Expectations that energy prices, including European electricity, have peaked are naïve. Putin has yet to put the winter and spring screws on Europe and the world fully. It will be surprising if global oil and natural gas prices in Europe are not significantly higher on a twelve-month view. And Europe has messed up its electricity supplies — that is where the energy costs
Bankers are trying to reduce their loan exposure to rising interest rates, undermining GDP. Besides paying for everyone’s energy bills, rescuing troubled banks, collapsing tax revenues, and difficulties in selling government debt on rising yields, governments are expected to apply economic stimulus to support both their economies and financial markets.
Furthermore, this article points to evidence as to why the expansion of central bank credit has a far greater impact on prices than contracting bank credit. The replacement of commercial bank credit by central bank credit will have a far greater inflationary impact than the deflation from bank credit alone.
Attempts to rescue the American, European, and Japanese economies by replacing commercial bank credit with central bank credit will probably be the coup de grace for fiat.
We can begin to anticipate the path to the destruction of purchasing power for all fiat currencies, not just those of Zimbabwe, Turkey, and Venezuela et al. A global hyperinflation is proving impossible to avoid. …
Lithium prices hit new record and thus electric vehicle affordability concerns are amounting
(zerohedge)
Lithium Prices Hit New Record As EV Affordability Concerns Mount
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 01:44 PM
While California banned the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, and the Biden administration unveiled $900 million in new funding to build electric vehicle charging stations, rising lithium prices could derail the EV revolution.
The progressive view is that EVs will save the planet from catching on fire because green vehicles would eliminate the harmful carbon emissions of fossil fuel vehicles. Though a widespread rollout of EVs depends on affordability, and EVs are way more expensive than gas-powered.
Bloomberg reported lithium carbonate, a key metal in EV batteries, hit a new record high in China this week. Per ton, prices jumped to 500,500 yuan ($71,315), more than triple the price versus last year.
The global surge in lithium prices has increased the cost of EV batteries. Tesla hiked vehicle prices several times this summer (see: here) because of rising battery costs.
A steady increase in demand for global EVs combined with a recent power crunch in Sichuan province, a region that produces 20% of China’s lithium production, resulted in the disruption of output and tighter supplies, hampering an already-squeezed global market.
Research firm Rystad Energy said a second energy crisis could materialize in China this winter when heating demand soars:
“This could lead to new power shortages and hit lithium operations,” it noted, expecting lithium prices to stay elevated for the rest of the year.
Soc. Quimica & Minera de Chile SA, the world’s second-largest lithium producer, warned investors Thursday of a “very tight market” in the years ahead and sees higher prices.
The expectation that EVs would become affordable for the masses is a distant pipedream because of the high costs associated with battery production.
At least half of an EV battery includes lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt, four metals that have surged this past year. Also, let’s not forget China controls the world’s rare earth mineral trade…
The surge in lithium prices and other critical metals for EV batteries is a significant concern that could derail the EV revolution due to affordability concerns.
end
COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0097
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0222
SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 73.52 PTS OR 2.30%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 168.69 PTS OR 0.89%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 308.26 PTS OR 1.11%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 109.66/Euro FALLS TO 0.9974
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.02/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.766%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.05% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.92%…
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.26//
3j Gold at $1664.60 silver at: 19.00 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 26/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.06//
3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.02DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9605–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9584well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.457 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.494 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,28
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
Futures Crater As Fedex Ushers In The Global Recession On $3.2 Trillion Triple Witch Day
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 08:03 AM
Another day, another selloff, this time one driven by a catastrophic repricing by Fedex, which has plunged by the most ever this morning, down 20% and losing over $11BN in market cap…
… after pulling guidance and effectively warning that the entire world – and especially China – is in a recession. The fact that it is a $3.2 trillion opex today which guarantees even more volatility in the coming weeks…
… or that buyback blackout period begins today probably isn’t helping, and sure enough, we end the week in a mirror image to how we started it, with equities extending declines with an index of global stocks on track for the worst week since June, while the dollar continued its relentless ascent, trading back to all time highs. S&P futures were down 0.8% at 730am, dropping to the lowest level in 2 months, while Nasdaq 100 lost more than 1%, as Europe headed for a fourth day of losses, and Asian was a sea of red led by China.
In premarket trading, besides the implosion in Fedex, Uber shares slid 5.3% in US premarket trading after the ride-hailing company said it has shut down internal Slack messaging as it investigates a cybersecurity breach. Bank stocks are also lower alongside S&P 500 futures, while the US 10-year Treasury yield advances. In corporate news, Credit Suisse’s securitized products group has drawn interest from Apollo Global Management and BNP Paribas, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Here are some other big premarket movers:
FedEx (FDX US) shares plunged 20% in US premarket trading after the package delivery giant pulled its fiscal 2023 earnings forecast, triggering a raft of downgrades from analysts, including at KeyBanc and JPMorgan. Amazon (AMZN US) and UPS (UPS US) also fell.
Adobe (ADBE US) shares fall another 2.3% in premarket trading, one day after its market value shrunk by $29.5 billion on an announcement to buy software design startup Figma. More analysts slashed ratings and price targets.
Cryptocurrency- exposed stocks are likely to be active on Friday with Bitcoin dropping below $19,800 after SEC Chair Gary Gensler signaled that a feature of the network’s software could lead to tokens being considered securities by the commission.
In the US premarket trading hours, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -3.2%, Coinbase (COIN US) -2.0%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -3.4%
Watch Alcoa (AA US) as Morgan Stanley upgrades the stock and several peers, noting that value begins to show within Americas metals and mining shares, but cautioning that uncertainty remains.
International Paper (IP US) slides 5.6% in US premarket trading after Jefferies downgraded the stock as well as shares in Packaging Corp of America (PKG US) to underperform in reflection of the “massive inventory glut in containerboard.” The broker stays at hold for Westrock (WRK US), noting that valuation is already depressed.
Policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yields extended a rise to the highest since 2007, deepening the curve inversion that’s seen as a recession signal. The latest US economic data painted a mixed picture for the economy that backed the view for hawkish monetary policy. Swaps traders are pricing in a 75 basis-point hike when the Federal Reserve meets next week, with some wagers appearing for a full-point move.
“Everything points to another 75 basis-point rate hike by the Fed when it meets next week. The likelihood that it will have to go ‘big’ again in November is elevated, too,” said Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, an economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “What’s more, its new projections should indicate that the fight against inflation will be more painful than previously acknowledged.”
Market participants will face additional volatility on Friday from the quarterly expiry event known as triple witching, with contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expiring, while re-balancing of major equity indexes also takes place.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 slumped 1.4%, headed for a 4th day of losses. The FTSE 100 is flat but outperforms peers, DAX lags, dropping 1.7%. Industrials, construction and autos are the worst-performing sectors as are mining stocks which as iron ore slid amid concerns over demand in China, while aluminum fell on the back of record Chinese output. European mail and parcel delivery companies took a hit in the aftermath of the Fedex warning, led by Deutsche Post AG, down as much as 7.6%. The UK’s benchmark outperformed as the British pound sank to its weakest level against the dollar since 1985.
All industry groups are in the red. Here are the biggest European movers:
Jupiter Fund Management jumps as much as 4.2% after being upgraded to neutral at UBS. Separately, the FT reported that the new CEO will restructure the company after an operational review
Krones rises as much as 1.6% on Friday, with Baader Helvea saying the company showed “huge confidence” during recent capital markets day at the Drinktec trade fair in Munich
Ariston shares soar as much as 11%, the most intraday since March 14, after the company agreed to buy 100% of Centrotec Climate Systems for EU703m in cash and ~41.42m Ariston shares
Capita shares rise as much as 9.3% amid a contract extension with Barnet Council and the sale of subsidiary Pay360 for GBP150 million to Access PaySuite
UK and EU real estate shares slip after both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan published bearish reviews of the sector. Land Securities falls as much as 5.1% in London after being cut to sell at Goldman
European mail and parcel delivery companies take a hit, led by Deutsche Post, down to July 2020 lows, after US peer FedEx withdrew its earnings forecast on worsening business conditions
Mining stocks are among the biggest underperformers in Europe on Friday as iron ore slid amid concerns over demand in China, while aluminum fell on the back of record Chinese output
Telecom Italia shares drop to a record low after Barclays cut the carrier to underweight from equal-weight, citing a more complex investment case amid political uncertainties in Italy
Uniper plunges to its lowest level on record, with shares down as much as 16%, after people familiar with the matter said Germany is in advanced talks to take it over
Virbac falls as much as 10% after the French veterinary-products company reported 1H results that showed inflation is weighing on profit margins
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a fifth-straight weekly decline as markets remained volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision next week, with the Xi-Putin meeting adding renewed geopolitical concerns. Stocks slumped in Japan, Hong Kong and mainland China, with little impact on sentiment from Chinese industrial-production and retail-sales data that beat expectations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3% on Friday, following weakness in US shares, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks. China’s CSI 300 Index slumped the most in more than four months as the yuan weakened past 7 per dollar, offsetting upbeat August economic data, with the government ramping up stimulus to counter a slowdown. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for the first time since the war in Ukraine began, underscoring increasing risks as Beijing continues to show support for Moscow.
The Covid-Zero policy in China, a property crisis and the outcome of a US audit inspection will “keep the market in a relatively volatile state,” Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The brokerage expects earnings growth for mainland companies “to decline to around mid-single digit” from Covid resurgence and lockdowns. India and Australia were among the region’s worst performers. Losses accelerated in afternoon trading as the dollar strengthened. Asian equities suffered a tumultuous week, falling more than 2% as risk assets took a hit from faster-than-expected US inflation, which fueled expectations for more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. A strong dollar and higher Treasury yields added to the headwinds. The regional stock benchmark is edging toward its lowest close since May 2020.
Japanese stocks declined as concerns of a potential global economic slowdown and higher US interest rates damped demand for risk. The Topix fell 0.6% to 1,938.56 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.1% to 27,567.65. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 3.8%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 589 rose and 1,501 fell, while 79 were unchanged. “The US interest rate hike will probably be 0.75 point, but there is still a strong sense of uncertainty about future hikes,” said Takeru Ogihara, a chief strategist at Asset Management One. Summers Expects Fed to Raise Rates Above 4.3% to Curb Inflation
The index for developing-nation equities fell to its lowest level in more than two years on Friday. A three-day slide has shaved $422 billion off MSCI’s EM stock index. The gauge fell as much as 1.5%, led by health care stocks. The EM equity gauge is down 5.5% this quarter, on track for a fifth consecutive drop, a record since Bloomberg began monitoring the data.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback strengthened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen which is marginally up, trading at the 143/USD level. Pound at 1.13/USD, the lowest since 1985, underperforming G-10 peers.
The euro fell a first day in three, trading once again below parity against the dollar. Bunds, Italian bonds slid, putting their 10-year yields on course to climb for a seventh week as traders continued to amp up ECB tightening bets, pricing as much as 200bps of rate hikes by July. The euro volatility skew shifts higher this week and especially on longer tenors, suggesting that bearish sentiment wanes. This seems to be down to demand for topside strikes and not unwinding of shorts given move in the tails
The pound was the worst G-10 performer and fell below $1.14 for the first time since 1985. UK retail sales fell at the sharpest pace in eight months in August as a worsening cost-of-living crisis and plunging confidence forced consumers to cut back on spending. The 1.6% drop was more than three times the decline predicted by economists. Monday is a national bank holiday in the UK
The Australian dollar tumbled to the lowest level since the early days of the Covid pandemic as risk aversion swept across markets. Three-year yield touched as high as 3.44% after National Bank of Australia raised its forecast to a 50bps hike in October. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said a few hikes would be needed to tame inflation, though the case for outsized interest-rate increases has “diminished” now that the cash rate is approaching “more normal settings”
Japan’s longer-maturity bonds extended declines after Thursday’s weak 20-year auction. Japanese markets will be shut Monday and Friday next week for national holidays
Meanwhile, the offshore yuan remained on the weaker side of 7 to the dollar, even as the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for the currency stronger-than-forecast for a 17th straight day. “While China activity showed some improvement this morning, equity investors really want to see substantial easing in China’s policies related to Covid to turn a bit more constructive,” said Chetan Seth, Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. “That has not happened.”
In rates, the 10Y Treasury yield up 3bps to around 3.47%, gilts 10-year yield is flat at 3.16%, while bunds 10-year is also up 0.2bps at 1.79%. Treasuries remained lower after a bund-led selloff during European morning, with losses led by front-end of the curve as 2-year yields exceed Thursday’s highs, peaking near 3.92%. Further out, 5s30s breached Thursday’s low (reaching -21.1bp) to reach most inverted level since 2000. Yields are cheaper by more than 3bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s spread flatter by ~2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.47%, trading broadly in line with bunds while gilts outperform by 2.5bp in the sector. US curve flattening persists as Fed rate expectations continue to grind higher; OIS markets price in a peak policy rate of around 4.5% for March 2023
In commodities, WTI and Brent are oscillating around the unchanged mark with the complex initially under pressure from the overall risk aversion. Kazakhstan energy ministry expects to stick to its oil production plans of 85.5mln tonnes this year; says Kashagan oilfield will resume output “in October at best.” Spot gold is flat after the yellow metal took out the 2021 low (USD 1,676/oz) yesterday with clean air seen below until the COVID low of USD 1,450/oz.
Bitcoin is flat around USD 19,750 whilst Ethereum remains pressured under USD 1,500.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September, as well as UK retail sales for August. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB’s President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Rehn and Villeroy.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 1.0% to 3,863.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 409.92
MXAP down 1.3% to 150.15
MXAPJ down 1.6% to 490.96
Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,567.65
Topix down 0.6% to 1,938.56
Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 18,761.69
Shanghai Composite down 2.3% to 3,126.40
Sensex down 1.8% to 58,881.76
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 6,739.08
Kospi down 0.8% to 2,382.78
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.78%
Euro down 0.4% to $0.9961
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,656.63
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 110.11
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
A surging dollar is now the only possible hedge for what’s turning into the biggest destruction of shareholder value since the global financial crisis
“The growing risk of recession in the euro area and the steadily increasing labor participation rate might also be factors that have kept wages in check,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said in Helsinki
“The slowdown of the economy is not going to ‘take care’ of inflation on its own,” European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos tells Expresso newspaper in an interview. “We need to continue the normalization of monetary policy”
The French inflation rate will peak between now and the beginning of next year near the current level, “around 6% or a little more,” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
A shortage of high-quality assets in the euro area is keeping a lid on short- term borrowing costs, a development that could endanger the ECB’s effort to tighten financial conditions
Global equity funds saw inflows driven by US stocks in the week to Sept. 14, according to a Bank of America note, citing EPFR Global data
China has ample monetary policy room and abundant policy tools, PBOC’s monetary policy department writes in an article that reviews the country’s monetary policies in the past five years
China’s economy showed signs of recovery in August. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all grew faster than economists expected last month. The urban jobless rate slid to 5.3%, while the youth unemployment rate fell from a record high
Japan’s increasingly incongruous policy stance aimed at securing both stable growth and inflation is adding to the likelihood of further yen losses, even as officials warn of possible intervention
India’s sovereign bonds are defying a worldwide rout, as banks and foreign funds rushed to buy the high-yielding debt in anticipation that they will be included in global indexes
Germany is taking control of Russian oil major Rosneft PJSC’s German oil refineries and is nearing a decision to take over Uniper SE and two other large gas importers as it tries to avoid a collapse of its energy industry
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia stocks fell despite better-than-expected Chinese activity data as the region took its cue from the losses in the US after mixed data and as markets continued to adjust to a more aggressive Fed rate path. ASX 200 was pressured as energy and miners led the broad retreat after recent losses in commodity prices. Nikkei 225 suffered from the downbeat mood and with the 10yr JGB yield stuck at the top of the BoJ’s target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the risk aversion with the latest Industrial Production and Retail Sales data failing to spur risk appetite despite both surpassing estimates.
Top Asian News
Chinese NBS said China is to coordinate economic development and COVID control, while it added that the economy continued a recovery trend in August and some factors exceeded expectations but also noted that the recovery in domestic demand still lags behind the recovery in production and that the property market faces downward pressure despite some positive changes. China’s stats bureau also commented that the economy was affected by COVID flare-ups in August but the flare-ups impact was limited and that policies to stabilise growth are gaining traction although noted that China’s economy faces more difficulties this year than in 2020.
Chinese President Xi says China’s economy remains resilient and full of potential
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated it is important for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and that sharp FX moves are undesirable, while he is concerned about sharp, one-sided JPY weakening and they will take necessary action without ruling out any options if sharp yen moves persist.
Japan is to use JPY 3.5tln in reserve funds for economic measures, according to Kyodo News
RBA Governor Lowe said the RBA is committed to returning inflation to the 2-3% target range over time and is seeking to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel, while the Board expects further increases will be required to bring inflation back to target but they are not on a pre-set path. Lowe stated that with inflation as high as it is, they need to make sure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time and will do what is necessary to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched. Furthermore, Lowe said at some point will not need to hike by 50bps and they are getting closer to that point, while they will consider hiking by 25bps or 50bps at the next meeting but also stated that rates are still too low right now.
South Korean President Yoon and US President Biden are expected to discuss currency swap during a summit, according to Yonhap.
South Korean Parliament Speaker Kim says need to promptly advance South Korean and Chinese trade negotiations
Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound. European sectors are all lower and portray a clear defensive bias, with Healthcare at the top of the bunch. Stateside, US equity futures have been trundling lower with the NQ underperforming vs the ES, YM and RTY.
Top European News
No Movies. No McDonald’s. Britain Shuts for Queen’s Funeral
WHO Panel Advises Against GSK, Regeneron Drugs for Covid
AstraZeneca Gets Nod From EU for Evusheld and Respiratory Drug
Telecom Italia Falls to Record Low Amid Barclays Downgrade
Uniper Plunges to Lowest Level Ever on Nationalization Reports
Cold War Relic Threatens Plans to Ditch Russian Oil
FX
GBP extended losses in wake of significantly weaker than forecast ONS retail sales data, with Cable sliding to the lowest level since 1985.
DXY reclaimed 110.00-status as Sterling continued sliding, and now oscillates around the round figure.
JPY stands as the outperformer, as USD/JPY hold within yesterday’s extremes amid the risk aversion and recent verbal jawboning.
Chinese FX regulator says it is hard to predict short-term volatility in exchange rate, and urges companies not to bet on the exchange rate, according to state media
South Korean Authorities are reportedly suspected of “smoothing operations” in USD/KRW trading, according to Reuters citing South Korean FX dealers.
Fixed Income
Bunds have staved off pressure on 142.00 within a 142.15-143.04 range.
Gilts traded above par briefly between 104.93-105.50 extremes (+17 ticks at one stage).
10yr T-note is almost flat ahead of preliminary Michigan sentiment which will be watched closely for inflation expectations.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are oscillating around the unchanged mark with the complex initially under pressure from the overall risk aversion.
Kazakhstan energy ministry expects to stick to its oil production plans of 85.5mln tonnes this year; says Kashagan oilfield will resume output “in October at best”
Spot gold is flat after the yellow metal took out the 2021 low (USD 1,676/oz) yesterday with clean air seen below until the COVID low of USD 1,450/oz.
Base metals meanwhile are softer across the board as the Dollar remains firm, but LME nickel bucks the trend with reports via Bloomberg also suggesting LME is being sued by hedge funds, including AQR, in the London High Court
US Event Calendar
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 60.0, prior 58.2
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 59.4, prior 58.6
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 59.0, prior 58.0
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.8%
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
16:00: July Total Net TIC Flows, prior $22.1b
16:00: July Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $121.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Two weeks after coping with a manic birthday party for two manic 5 year old twins, we repeat the whole thing this weekend as my daughter Maisie turns 7 today and has a OTT Harry Potter themed party tomorrow at our house. I have a costume which I’m hoping will be cooler than the 10ft giant inflatable diplodocus outfit I had for the twins’ party. If you don’t believe me photos are available. Many people have kindly asked how Maisie is after being diagnosed with a rare hip disease called Perthes over 12 months ago. The answer is she is coping well but still needs to be in a wheelchair until the doctors see any sign that the hip ball is regrowing. We’re crossing our fingers that there might be signs at the next scan in December. At the moment it’s still slowly disintegrating. She’s had great news this week as she’s got accepted at a very young age into a prestigious artistic swimming club. Because of her regular rehab in the pool, and a natural talent even before her condition became apparent, she is phenomenal in the water. She is a stage 7 swimmer which on average is for around 10/11 year olds and used to love gymnastics before her incapacitation. So for a sport that I’ve perhaps always previously seen as one of my least favourite, I’m now a synchronised swimming convert ahead of her first session this Sunday. I suspect I’ll stick to golf for myself though and won’t be buying the nose peg.
It was another synchronised sell off for both bonds and equities yesterday as investors moved to price in yet more rate hikes from central banks, raising market fears about a hard landing ahead. Those moves were prompted by a decent batch of US employment data, which added to the sense that the Fed could afford to keep hiking rates for the time being. But the prospect of more aggressive rate hikes proved bad news for equities, with the S&P 500 (-1.13%), its lowest level since July, more than reversing the previous day’s partial rebound that followed its worst daily performance for two years on Tuesday. In the meantime, sovereign bonds embarked on a further selloff and multiple recessionary indicators were flashing with increasing alarm, including the 2s30s Treasury yield curve that by the close was more inverted than at any time since 2000.
Before we get onto the details however, we should point out that DB’s US economists, led by Matt Luzzetti, have also revised their expectations for the Fed funds rate following the latest inflation data, and now see the terminal rate some way beyond market pricing at 4.9% in Q1 2023 (link here). Matt has been consistently the highest on the street for economists in recent months and this upgrade is now closer to the 5-6% range that David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Hooper and I said was necessary to tame inflation in our “What’s in the tails?” note (link here) back in April. Today’s UoM inflation expectations series is going to be the last important release before next week’s FOMC, especially after this week’s messy CPI data. Year-ahead inflation expectations have been edging down of late but the upside surprise in June a few hours after a blockbuster CPI beat cemented the last minute 75bps hike. With +80.5bps priced in next week, it will be interesting to see if the expectations data move pricing any closer to 75 or 100bps, and if not, whether the Fed tries to influence pricing with a leak so the meeting isn’t as “live”, or if they feel comfortable heading into the meeting with some split probability priced. While we’re on the revision path, a reminder that our 10yr Bund forecast was upgraded to 2.25% late on Wednesday. See here for more.
Against this rates higher backdrop, markets were revising their expectations in a hawkish direction following strong labour market data. In particular, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 10 fell for a 5th consecutive week to 213k (vs. 227k expected), and the previous week was also revised down by -4k. The release added to the sense that the recent economic resilience over the late summer was proving to be more than just one data point, and it’s worth noting that the 213k reading was the lowest since May. Piling on, retail sales MoM increased 0.3% versus -0.1% expectations. As with most things macro related lately, there is a flipside, however. The core retail sales figure fell -0.3% versus expectations it would be flat, while the control group, which has outsize influence in GDP consumption tabulations, was flat MoM, versus expectations of a 0.5% expansion. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker downgraded 3Q GDP estimates to 0.5% from 1.3% following the print. Recession talk will only bubble up with more with revisions like that. But overall a messy set of data yesterday.
The recent inflation surprises has proven bad news for risk assets since it’s seen as giving the Fed the green light for faster rate hikes. In response, the terminal rate priced in for March 2023 rose +7.8bps yesterday to 4.46%, and that in turn led to another selloff for Treasuries. By the close, the 2yr yield was up +7.7bps to its highest level since the GFC, whilst the 10yr yield rose +4.5bps to 3.45%. In Asia the 2yr yield is up another couple of bps, with 10yr yields flat, further inverting the 2s10s curve to -44.5 bps as we go to press. Higher real yields were behind the latest moves, with the 10yr real yield crossing 1.0%, hitting a post-2018 high. And in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.3bps), OATs (+3.6bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all moving higher as well.
Yesterday’s losses were spread across multiple asset classes, and equities took a tumble given those fears about faster rate hikes. The S&P 500 shed -1.13% as part of a broad-based decline, and the impact of higher interest rates was evident from the sectoral breakdowns, as tech stocks including the NASDAQ (-1.43%) struggled, whereas the banks in the S&P 500 advanced +1.54%. Europe experienced a similar pattern, with the STOXX 600 (-0.56%) losing ground for a third day running, in contrast to the STOXX Banks index (+1.98%) which hit a three-month high.
One more positive piece of news on the inflation side was that a deal was reached to avert an upcoming US rail strike, which would have had a significant impact on supply chains had that gone ahead. A sign of its potential impact was that even the White House was involved, with President Biden joining the meeting virtually on Wednesday evening. The news helped a number of key commodities to fall back in price, including US natural gas futures which ended the day -8.67% lower, whilst WTI oil was also down -3.82% at $85.10/bbl.
Asian equity markets are weaker again this morning, heading for a fifth consecutive weekly drop amid further weakness in US equities overnight. As I type, the CSI (-1.13%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.97%) are trading in negative territory with stronger than expected economic data failing to boost risk sentiment. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.08%), Kospi (-1.03%) and the Hang Seng (-0.55%) are also sliding. Looking ahead, stock futures in the DM world are pointing to additional losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.71%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.88%) and DAX (-0.70%) all moving lower.
We have early morning data from China with retail sales standing out as it jumped +5.4% y/y in August (v/s +3.3% expected), up from +2.7% in July. The uptick in retail sales was primarily visible in the restaurant/catering sectors, an industry typically sensitive to lockdowns. Other activity series showed that industrial production grew +4.2% y/y in August, which is an improvement from July’s +3.8% increase. Also, fixed asset investment for the first eight months of the year rose by +5.8%, above the +5.5% increase forecast. However, there were some disappointing signs elsewhere as new home prices slid for the 12th consecutive month, falling -0.29% m/m in August against a -0.11% decline previously, indicating that the recently rolled-out measures failed to revive demand.
Staying on China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continued its currency defense after the yuan weakened past the key level of 7 per US dollar for the first time in two years amid the relentless dollar rally. The central bank for the 17th straight day intervened while fixing the yuan 456 pips stronger than the average Bloomberg estimate to help prevent the currency’s slide.
Back to wrapping up the rest of yesterday’s data, US industrial production was down -0.2% in August (vs. unch expected), and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for September fell to -9.9 (vs. 2.3 expected). However, the Empire State manufacturing survey for September rose to -1.5 (vs. -12.9 expected), rebounding from its worst month since the Covid pandemic.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September, as well as UK retail sales for August. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB’s President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Rehn and Villeroy.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 06:59 AM
Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound
GBP extended losses in wake of significantly weaker than forecast ONS retail sales data, with Cable sliding to the lowest level since 1985
10yr T-note is almost flat ahead of preliminary Michigan sentiment which will be watched closely for inflation expectations
China will impose sanctions on CEO of Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and CEO of Boeing (BA) Defense, Space & Security
Looking ahead, highlights include US University of Michigan Prelim., Quad Witching
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
16th September 2022
LOOKING AHEAD
US University of Michigan Prelim., Quad Witching.
Click here for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit primer.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian President Putin says “We are ready to work to solve many problems in the world, the most important of which are energy and food”, via Al Jazeera.
CHINA-TAIWAN
China will impose sanctions on Gregory Hayes, CEO and chairman of Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Ted Colbert, Boeing (BA) Defense, Space & Security president and CEO, following recent US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region, according to Chinese FM, according to Global Times.
ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN
Kazakhstan energy ministry expects to stick to its oil production plans of 85.5mln tonnes this year; says Kashagan oilfield will resume output “in October at best”
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound
European sectors are all lower and portray a clear defensive bias, with Healthcare at the top of the bunch.
Stateside, US equity futures have been trundling lower with the NQ underperforming vs the ES, YM and RTY.
GBP extended losses in wake of significantly weaker than forecast ONS retail sales data, with Cable sliding to the lowest level since 1985.
DXY reclaimed 110.00-status as Sterling continued sliding, and now oscillates around the round figure.
JPY stands as the outperformer, as USD/JPY hold within yesterday’s extremes amid the risk aversion and recent verbal jawboning.
Chinese FX regulator says it is hard to predict short-term volatility in exchange rate, and urges companies not to bet on the exchange rate, according to state media
South Korean Authorities are reportedly suspected of “smoothing operations” in USD/KRW trading, according to Reuters citing South Korean FX dealers.
WTI and Brent are oscillating around the unchanged mark with the complex initially under pressure from the overall risk aversion.
Kazakhstan energy ministry expects to stick to its oil production plans of 85.5mln tonnes this year; says Kashagan oilfield will resume output “in October at best”
Spot gold is flat after the yellow metal took out the 2021 low (USD 1,676/oz) yesterday with clean air seen below until the COVID low of USD 1,450/oz.
Base metals meanwhile are softer across the board as the Dollar remains firm, but LME nickel bucks the trend with reports via Bloomberg also suggesting LME is being sued by hedge funds, including AQR, in the London High Court
Bitcoin is flat around USD 19,750 whilst Ethereum remains pressured under USD 1,500.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
UK Retail Sales MM (Aug) -1.6% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.4%)
UK Retail Sales YY* (Aug) -5.4% vs. Exp. -4.2% (Prev. -3.4%)
EU HICP Final YY (Aug) 9.1% vs. Exp. 9.1% (Prev. 9.1%)
EU HICP Final MM (Aug) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.1%)
EU HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM (Aug) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
EU HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY (Aug) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
NOTABLE EU HEADLINES
ECB President Lagarde says absolutely want to avoid second round effects; hikes should send signal that we will meet price goal. ECB actions may weigh on growth, but it is a risk that needs to be taken because price stability is priority.
ECB’s de Guindos says we do not have any estimates of the terminal rate, via an interview from Sept 9th. TPI is ready to be used.
ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB is attentive about the exchange rate.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks fell despite better-than-expected Chinese activity data as the region took its cue from the losses in the US after mixed data and as markets continued to adjust to a more aggressive Fed rate path.
ASX 200 was pressured as energy and miners led the broad retreat after recent losses in commodity prices.
Nikkei 225 suffered from the downbeat mood and with the 10yr JGB yield stuck at the top of the BoJ’s target.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the risk aversion with the latest Industrial Production and Retail Sales data failing to spur risk appetite despite both surpassing estimates.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
Chinese NBS said China is to coordinate economic development and COVID control, while it added that the economy continued a recovery trend in August and some factors exceeded expectations but also noted that the recovery in domestic demand still lags behind the recovery in production and that the property market faces downward pressure despite some positive changes. China’s stats bureau also commented that the economy was affected by COVID flare-ups in August but the flare-ups impact was limited and that policies to stabilise growth are gaining traction although noted that China’s economy faces more difficulties this year than in 2020.
Chinese President Xi says China’s economy remains resilient and full of potential
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated it is important for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and that sharp FX moves are undesirable, while he is concerned about sharp, one-sided JPY weakening and they will take necessary action without ruling out any options if sharp yen moves persist.
Japan is to use JPY 3.5tln in reserve funds for economic measures, according to Kyodo News
RBA Governor Lowe said the RBA is committed to returning inflation to the 2-3% target range over time and is seeking to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel, while the Board expects further increases will be required to bring inflation back to target but they are not on a pre-set path. Lowe stated that with inflation as high as it is, they need to make sure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time and will do what is necessary to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched. Furthermore, Lowe said at some point will not need to hike by 50bps and they are getting closer to that point, while they will consider hiking by 25bps or 50bps at the next meeting but also stated that rates are still too low right now.
South Korean President Yoon and US President Biden are expected to discuss currency swap during a summit, according to Yonhap.
South Korean Parliament Speaker Kim says need to promptly advance South Korean and Chinese trade negotiations
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Production YY (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Aug) 5.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 2.7%)
Chinese House Prices YY (Aug) -1.3% (Prev. -0.9%)
i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 73,52 PTS OR 2.30% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 168.69 PTS OR 0.89% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 308.26 OR 1.11%. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0097//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0222// /Oil DOWN TO 85.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 91.76 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3c CHINA
CHINAYUAN
Yuan breaks 7.00 despite fake Chinese macro data
(zerohedge)
Yuan Fades Despite ‘Suddenly’ Strong China Macro Data Across The Board
THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 10:40 PM
Just days after Morgan Stanley questions whether China could stabilize global growth, tonight’s avalanche of macro data from Beijing suggests the unleashing of various liquidity measures – and the random lifting of some COVID-Zero lockdowns – was just enough to juice the data in August as almost everything beat expectations and improved sequentially…
China Industrial Production rose 3.6% YTD YoY in August – IN LINE with expectations of +3.6% and UP from July’s 3.6% MoM rise.
China Retail Sales rose 0.5% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +0.2% and UP from July’s 0.2% MoM drop.
China Fixed Asset Investment rose 5.8% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +5.5% and UP from July’s 5.7% MoM rise.
China Surveyed Jobless Rate fell to 5.3 in August – BEATing expectations of 5.4% and BETTER then July’s 5.4% – despite youth unemployment at 18.7%
However, there was a black eye in the bunch:
China Property Investment tumbled 7.4% YTD YoY in August – MISSing expectations of -7.0%% and WORSE than July’s 6.4% decline.
Additionally residential property sales continued their weakness, down 30.3% YTD YoY, suggesting China’s property slump shows little sign of easing…
Digging into the details, Helen Qiao of Bank of America told Bloomberg Television making the point that retail sales has been boosted by auto sales, but broader consumer sentiment remains hostage to the aggressive covid zero strategy.
Looking through the retail sales break down, autos and petroleum saw double digit gains and there was strength also in food, eating out, tobacco/alcohol, medicine. The weakest sectors were cosmetics, furniture and communication appliances
This all seems very well timed – the increase in industrial output is particularly interesting given leading indicators like PMIs and exports have been flagging weakening demand.
China’s offshore yuan was fading fast after the data – and was rather notably weaker than the RMB Fix – breaking significantly weaker above 7/USD. That is the 17th straight day of Yuan fixing stronger than the offshore rate.
As Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes, these numbers will stoke views that the economy has bottomed – but – given the ongoing challenges from extreme weather, the housing data we saw this morning, weakening global demand for China’s exports and of course covid zero, feels like a big call to say things will turn from here.
Ho Woei Chen, economist with United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore, says:
“The improvements in data provided some relief but economic challenges remain. The pace of recovery in production, consumption and investment is still in question for the coming months. The offshore yuan trend is also a function of the Fed’s monetary policy. For PBOC, it is expected to maintain an accommodative policy to help the economy recover.”
Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, says:
“August’s data does not relieve our concern on China’s growth outlook. It does reflect the impact of Chengdu’s lockdown.”
Furthermore, this is a timely turn for the data given the Party Congress will kick off in four weeks from now and it also runs against the recent narrative that government support isn’t gaining traction.
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
UK/POUND
Pound nears record lows at 1.1350
Cable Nears Record Low On 30th Anniversary Of ‘Black Wednesday’
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 09:45 AM
The British pound plunged to its weakest level against the US Dollar since 1985 — hitting $1.1350 around 0400 ET. Cable’s slide comes as recession risks in the UK flourish with a dollar that has been on a tear thanks to an uber hawkish Federal Reserve.
The Sterling’s plunge to a 37-year low comes on the three-decade anniversary of “Black Wednesday” (Sept. 16, 1992), when the pound famously crashed out of the European Monetary System’s exchange rate mechanism. At the time, the Bank of England couldn’t stop the pound’s plunge, even with interest rate hikes and spending billions to prop up FX markets.
“There was a tense atmosphere inside the bank,” Stuart Cole, who joined the BOE just months before Black Wednesday and is now head macro economist at Equiti Capital, told Bloomberg.
“It was the bank against the markets. There was a sense of apprehension where you knew it was going to end badly.”
Traders like George Soros, who wagered massive bearish bets on the pound, would later be known as “the man who broke the Bank of England.” He made an estimated $1 billion profit during the currency chaos.
Fast forward to 2022, and in currency land, the pound finds itself under pressure as the macroeconomic headwinds point to recession as the Fed unleashes aggressive rate hikes to get inflation under control – it seems as if the dollar is on an unstoppable upswing, which inversely impacts the sterling.
When the Fed aggressively raises rates to squeeze financial conditions, it results in only one place to hide: the dollar.
“[The dollar] tends to perform well when there are concerns of global recession, and there’s a risk-off mood in markets. The dollar is a ‘safe haven’ asset, and you tend to see flows back into the dollar that support the currency as well,” Goldman Sachs’ head of global FX Kamakshya Trivedi told clients in a note.
The pound’s morning plunge comes as UK retail sales fell at the sharpest pace in eight months in August, amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis and plunging consumer confidence to decade lows.
“Today’s retail sales data just released were terrible,” said MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny.
“The sterling-dollar exchange rate has further to fall in circumstances of increased financial market volatility.”
New Prime Minister Liz Truss inherited an economic mess as inflation prints at a four-decade high, energy crisis persists, consumer sentiment faltering, and the cost-of-living crisis worsens.
More notably, PIMCO’s Gene Frieda draws analogies between Truss’ most recent energy price guarantee plan and the failure of the Sterling peg 30 years ago…
The Truss government’s decision to cap domestic energy prices for households, in order to limit the impact of higher wholesale prices on consumption, is analogous to the UK’s failed exchange-rate peg of 30 years ago.
If wholesale gas prices soar, owing to Russia’s cutoff of deliveries to Europe or because the UK’s own foreign suppliers choose to limit gas exports in order to mitigate the effects of high energy prices on their own domestic economies, the cost of the subsidy scheme could skyrocket.
With the government’s balance sheet exposed to huge potential losses, its borrowing costs would become closely linked to the wholesale price of gas, over which it has no control.
In other words, the UK is establishing a price peg that will be financially difficult to sustain and politically difficult to remove.
Further increases in gas prices would lead to even higher interest rates; given Britain’s high debt levels, a deep recession would almost certainly follow.
There would be no currency peg to break per se, but sterling would still become collateral damage as foreign financing dries up.
High inflation has forced the BoE to boost interest rates when the economy is slowing – leading some to believe that a massive misstep by the central bank could exacerbate the coming downturn.
Even though the UK’s economic outlook is souring, the pound’s weakness is a dollar-strength story. The euro collapsed nearly 20% against the greenback this year, arriving at parity in July.
The UK currency has fallen 16% this year, and the question remains how Truss will halt the sterling’s slide into the abyss.
end
EU/ENERGY/USA
USA energy producers send ominous warning to Europe that they cannot save them this winter
(zerohedge)
“No Bailout Coming” – US Energy Producers Send Ominous Warning To Europe
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 05:45 AM
The threat of power rationing across Europe persists even after EU officials held an emergency meeting last week to starve off the impending winter energy crisis. EU countries have increasingly relied on US energy imports, though shale bosses warned the ability to boost oil and gas supplies would be challenging.
“It’s not like the US can pump a bunch more. Our production is what it is,” Wil VanLoh, head of private equity group Quantum Energy Partners, one of the shale’s most prominent investors, told Financial Times.
“There’s no bailout coming,” VanLoh added.
“Not on the oil side, not on the gas side.
Europe can thank the Democrats and the Biden administration for their war against crushing the US energy industry that led to massive divestments across the sector, which crippled oil production growth and refining capacity, and pressured/shamed the world into withdrawing any capital allocations to fossil fuels.
Ben Dell, chief executive of private equity group Kimmeridge Energy, said the shale industry’s investors on Wall Street would not give their blessing to a big production increase, preferring a low-production, high-profit model.
“Investors generally don’t want shale companies to pursue a growth model,” he said.
“The capital availability is extremely limited.”
Rig counts in the US have started to fall and production has flatlined well below pre-pandemic levels…
On top of the Democrat-led crippling of the US energy industry, EU leaders have been on an ESG-crazed mission to decarbonize their power grids with renewable (now finding out — not so reliable) energy and are frantically bringing back crude oil, coal, and natural gas power generators ahead of the cold season. Some EU countries are even extending the life of nuclear power plants.
The problems don’t end there — in 80 days, or on Dec. 5, the EU will embark on another suicide mission of banning seaborne imports of Russian crude. Then on Feb. 5, 2023, a ban on Russian petroleum product imports kicks in. These sanctions were enacted over the summer. However, piped imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be exempt in some EU member countries, like Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Back to the US shale patch where Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, explained significant production increases aren’t coming online:
“We’re not adding [drilling] rigs and I don’t see anyone else adding rigs,” said Sheffield, who runs one of the biggest oil producers in the US. He added that crude prices could rise above $120 a barrel this winter as supplies tighten.
Shale’s inability to rapidly increase crude production is no surprise, regarding Halliburton Co.’s CEO Jeff Miller and Exxon Mobile’s Darren Woods’s warnings over the summer that markets will remain tight for years due to a lack of production growth.
A perfect storm of factors plagues Europe: the inability of US shale to ramp up production (because of Democrat’s war on oil), Russia reducing energy exports, grid decarbonization, and EU’s Russian oil embargos.
… and why could crude prices have bottomed earlier this week? Well, maybe Bloomberg’s report that Biden administration officials plan to refill the SPR when crude falls around $80 a barrel. Also, SPR draws end in October, which means less crude on the market and possibly higher prices. Even as demand in China slumps, cities are reopening from Covid lockdowns, a sign demand could soon rise in Asia
END
EU/IMF
IMF chief warns that the upcoming harsh winter may spark social unrest in the EU
(Duschamp/EpochTimes)
IMF Chief: Harsh Winter May Spark Social Unrest In EU Amid Energy Crisis
A number of countries in Europe may experience social unrest if the upcoming winter is harsh amid an economic crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Wednesday.
“There is certainly fear of recession in some countries, or even if it is not recession, that it would feel like recession this winter,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF.
“And if Mother Nature decides not to cooperate, and the winter is actually harsh, that could lead to some social unrest,” she added.
Attending the 2022 “Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture” held in Washington, D.C., Georgieva pointed out that Europe is directly affected by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, saying the war has led to “horrible” economic consequences and added fuel to fears of recession in some countries.
Georgieva said the current situation meant that the European Central Bank needed to be “mindful of the necessity to keep the economy going,” while also remaining persistent in fighting broad-based inflation.
“Inflation is stubborn, it is more broad-based than we thought it would be,” Georgieva said. “And what it means is … we need central bankers to be as stubborn in fighting it as inflation has demonstrably been.”
Second-Order Effects
Georgieva noted at the event that the global economy had two consecutive shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which contributed to surging prices and a cost-of-living crisis.
The disruptions in the flows of Russian gas to Europe remain the primary cause of Europe’s current energy crisis. The continent has relied upon cheap Russian energy for years to power factories, generate electricity, and heat homes.
In a blog, the IMF warned that higher oil prices were driving up all consumer prices, which could result in a wage-price spiral if these second-order effects persisted. Central bankers should respond “firmly,” the agency of the United Nations stressed.
When overall inflation is already high, as it is now, wages tend to increase in response to an oil-price shock, the IMF said, citing a study of 39 European countries. The study revealed that people were more likely to react to price increases when high inflation was visibly eroding living standards, it said, noting that the larger the second-round effects, the greater the risk of a sustained wage-price spiral.
“If large and sustained, oil price shocks could fuel persistent rises in inflation and inflation expectations, which should be countered by a monetary policy response,” the IMF said, noting that people tended to seek higher compensation for oil price rises.
However, even in a high-inflation environment, wages stabilized after a year rather than continuing to rise at a steady clip, it said.
“To the extent that central banks remain adequately vigilant, current high inflation could still cause higher compensation for the cost of living than usual, but need not morph into a sustained increase in inflation,” the IMF said.
end
SWEDEN
Get a load of this: Four in five refugees have vacationed in the country that they fled from
(Watson/SummitNews)
Sweden: Four In Five ‘Refugees’ Have Vacationed In The Country They Fled From
A new survey has found that almost four out of five refugees living in Sweden have vacationed in the countries that they originally fled from.
Yes, really.
The survey was conducted by polling firm Novus on behalf of the Swedish online newspaper Bulletin.
It found that 79 per cent of people who arrived in Sweden as refugees, supposedly fleeing war or persecution, have returned to their home country since arriving in Sweden.
“According to the survey, they do not wish, however, to return home permanently,” reports Remix News. “When asked whether they plan to permanently return to their country of birth in the future, just 2 percent say they do, while 16 percent say maybe — 81 percent of those who arrived in Sweden from non-European countries say they do not, primarily because they believe Sweden to be a better country to raise their children.”
The migrants are able to slip in and out of Sweden because there is no punishment for doing so, unlike in countries like Switzerland and Germany, where refugees who return to their home countries without permission face losing their asylum status.
“If someone, a Syrian refugee, regularly vacations in Syria, he cannot honestly claim to be persecuted in Syria,” said then-German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer in 2019.
The results of the survey once again highlight how the vast majority of so-called “refugees” aren’t refugees at all, they’re economic migrants exploiting the emotional cache of the term “refugee” to abuse the system, and in doing so harming the interests of actual refugees.
Over the last 20 years, Sweden has taken in more refugees per capita that any other western country, a process which has seen Sweden go from being one of the safest countries in Europe to the second most dangerous.
The unemployment rate for migrants is four times higher than native Swedes, with some migrant-heavy areas seeing jobless levels as high as 78 per cent.
As we highlight in the video below, with the right-wing bloc, dominated by the anti-mass migration Sweden Democrats, set to win the election, Swedes finally appear to be waking up to the pitfalls of accelerated multiculturalism.
END
EUROPE/GERMANY//UKRAINE
Germany is indecisive on Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukraine and this has angered Von der Leyen, head of the European Commission
(zerohedge)
Von der Leyen Rebukes German Indecision In Ukraine: ‘Given Them All The Weapons Needed’
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 04:15 AM
Russia is said to be angered Thursday after European Commision president Ursula von der Leyen went to Kiev to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since Ukraine was given EU candidate status in June – something which she hailed during remarks.
“So much has changed. Ukraine is now an EU candidate,” she said in a social media post. It was her third trip overall to the war-ravaged country since the invasion began in February. “I’ll discuss with (President Volodymyr) Zelensky and (Prime Minister) Denys Shmygal how to continue getting our economies and people closer while Ukraine progresses towards accession,” she had described headed into talks.
“The accession process is well on track. It’s impressive to speed, the determination, the preciseness with which you are progressing,” von der Leyen told a press briefing. And yet other leaders like French president Emmanuel Macron have said it’s likely to take years or even “decades” before Ukraine is admitted as a member.
“We have earmarked already 150 million euros to make sure that the internally displaced people here in Ukraine have shelter,” she said of discussions focused on Ukrainian refugees headed into winter.
Von der Leyen had told the European Parliament recently before heading to the Ukrainian capital, “I want to make it very clear, the sanctions are here to stay” – this following successive waves of European sanctions. She also in perhaps the most provocative statement called for Vladimir Putin to be brought before an international criminal court for war crimes during this latest Ukraine trip.
During Thursday comments to the media, she called for Western countries to provide Ukraine with all the defense aid it’s asking for amid the much touted counteroffensive in the east and south, saying, “Ukraine should get all the military material they need,” according to Bloomberg.
This appeared to be an open rebuke of German fence-sitting, also as segments of the population have protested against Berlin getting more deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict amid the Russian gas and energy cut-off, as one European outlet summarized of the dilemma:
Germany’s foreign minister is urging Chancellor Olaf Scholz to decide on whether it will supply Ukraine with more tanks.
In an interview with the daily newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published on Thursday, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that, while such a decision could only be taken jointly by Germany’s governing three-party coalition and its international partners, it would have to be made swiftly.
“In the decisive phase that Ukraine currently finds itself, I also don’t believe that it’s a decision which can be delayed for long,” she was quoted as saying.
…Kyiv has said it would like to get German Leopard-2 tanks, but Berlin has so far rebuffed that request while providing other arms, including howitzers and self-propelled anti-aircraft weapons.
Scholz has still said that weapons already provided by Germany have been “decisive” in Ukraine’s regaining vast territory in Kharkiv Oblast. But Berlin has still come under fierce criticism this week, particularly from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
“Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now — to liberate people and save them from genocide,” Kuleba tweeted, and bluntly stated, “Not a single rational argument on why these weapons cannot be supplied, only abstract fears and excuses. What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not?“
Meanwhile, there are early reports the Biden administration is preparing yet another “$600 million or so” for defense aid for Ukraine, according to a Bloomberg correspondent.
END
GERMANY/RUSSIA//ROSNEFT
I can assure you that Russia is not happy with this. You can bet the farm that Russia will cut off natural gas to Germany now and not wait until December.
Germany takes control of Russia-owned refinery – YouTube
Inbox
Robert Hryniak
11:10 AM (21 minutes ago)
to
Amusing.. so Russia takes a loss .. watch Russia now cut off oil shipments sooner than later … what people do not understand is that refineries are tuned to grades of crude and not easy to switch over to alternative crude supply.
Cheers Robertend
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
RUSSIA/TURKEY/THE WEST
Turkey has a strong relationship with Russia and Ukraine. Now the USA and EU will force Turkey not to accept Russian MIR credit card payments
Big dilemma for Turkey, caught in the middle
(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)
US, EU Will Force Turkey To Implement Sanctions On Russia
Washington and Brussels will pressure Ankara to step up the economic war on Moscow, the Financial Timesreported Thursday. Western officials say the Russian economy has been able to weather the Washington-led sanctions blitz partly because the Turkish economy is offering backdoors to Moscow. According to the diplomats, Turkish banks will now be forced to abandon the Russian Mir payment system.
While a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey has maintained a somewhat neutral position on the war in Ukraine. Ankara’s hesitation to adopt the hawkish position held by the rest of the West allowed Turkey to mediate the talks which produced the grain export agreement. Under the deal, over 720,000 tonnes of food products have left Ukrainian ports.
Last month, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo warned his Turkish counterpart that Russians were attempting to use Ankara’s economy as a loophole to escape Western sanctions. The Turkish official responded by stressing that Ankara had a profound economic relationship with Kiev and Moscow.
In response to Western sanctions that prevented Russians from accessing services like Visa and Mastercard, the Kremlin rolled out the Mir payment system as an alternative. Five of Turkey’s most prominent banks use Mir.
One of the sources speaking with FT said Western nations would no longer allow the Turkish banks to use Mir without occurring risks.
“We’ll send a message very clearly that, for example, third-country financial institutions should not be interconnecting with the Mir payment network because, you know, that carries some sanctions- evasion risks,” the official said.
Two of Turkey’s top banks told FT that they would enforce the sanctions, and it appears Russians are being impacted. Middle East Eye reportsseveral Russians at Turkish resorts had their Mir cards declined. However, it is not a blanket ban at hotels, and Mir card users report being able to access ATMs.
Ankara does not appear willing to institute Washington’s sanctions targeting Mir. Turkey’s foreign ministry said that Ankara has a long-standing policy of only enforcing UN-issue sanctions.
FT reports the crackdown on sanctions in Turkey is due to the West’s economic war on Moscow having failed. “That shift acknowledges that economic sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February failed to damage Russia’s economy as much as they had hoped,” the outlet reported.
END
KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN CLASH
(zerohedge)
Clashes Break Out On Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border As Both Leaders Attend SCO Summit
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 12:26 PM
Border clashes have erupted Friday between the two Central Asian nations and longtime rivals Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, following three days of sporadic exchanges of fire between military border posts. Despite a short-lived attempt at ceasefire, the armed confrontation over disputed border areas continues among the neighboring countries which are both former Soviet republics and enjoy close ties with Moscow.
“The border guard said Kyrgyz forces were returning fire on Friday morning, as clashes took place along the length of the border, adding that Tajik forces were using tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and mortars,” Al Jazeera reports. “More than one-third of the 1,000km (600-mile) frontier remains disputed.”
Last year the two countries were on the brink of all-out war, with brief border skirmishes tending to flare-up semi-frequently, in a set of circumstances which somewhat parallels the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, which also has the region on edge.
Some reports are saying the whole length of the border has seen clashes this week, with each side accusing the other of starting the fighting with aggressive acts and provocations. Reuters reports that—
…Tajikistan accused Kyrgyz forces of shelling one of its outposts and seven villages with “heavy weaponry.” A civilian was killed and three injured, authorities in the Tajik city of Isfara said.
The Kyrgyz health ministry meanwhile on Friday said that 31 people have been injured in the clashes. Tajik security services have further alleged the following:
“The armed forces of the neighbor country are using all types of available heavy guns and firearm and subjecting villages on the border to intense mortar bombing,” the State Committee for National Security, or GKNB, said in a statement. “Servicemen from Kyrgyz special forces units … have carried armed attacks on homes and set fire to residential buildings.”
Ironically, both Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon are currently in nearby Uzbekistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit (SCO), which Russia’s Vladimir Putin is also attending.
Both leaders have actually appeared together in group photos at the regional China-led security summit even as border clashes ensued.
There are reports each side’s armies have been given draw-down orders, following talks between Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon and his Kyrgyz counterpart Sadyr Japarov in Samarkand.
There are reports that by the close of the day Friday, a tenuous ceasefire has been reached by both side’s militaries. However, there are already accusations from townspeople on either side of the border suggesting it hasn’t fully held.
end
6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY
I brought this to your attention yesterday and it is worth repeating: Fed Ex warns that the numbers do not portend very well. They are stating that at least we are in a global recession. Fed Ex is the world’s best bellwether as to the state of the global economy.
(zerohedge)
We’re Going Into A Worldwide Recession, FedEx CEO Warns “Numbers Don’t Portend Very Well”
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 07:25 AM
Update: Following FedEx’s ugly pre-announcement, CEO Raj Subramaniam, went further into the drivers behind his company’s decision to pull guidance during an interview with Jim Cramer of CNBC.
“I think so. But you know, these numbers, they don’t portend very well,” Subramaniam said in response to Cramer’s question about whether the economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”
FedEx’s top executive, who took over the role at the beginning of this year, said that declining worldwide cargo volumes were the primary factor in the company’s unsatisfactory performance.
“I’m very disappointed in the results that we just announced here, and you know, the headline really is the macro situation that we’re facing,” Subramaniam said tonight in an interview on CNBC’s Mad Money.
Finally, the CEO said the drop in volumes is far-reaching:
“We are a reflection of everybody else’s business, especially the high-value economy in the world,” he concluded.
Watch the full interview below:
Which helps explain why futures are sliding further this morning.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, in a surprise pre-announcement Thursday after the close, FedEx said it’s withdrawing its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast as a result of the preliminary 1Q financial performance and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment.
First quarter results were adversely impacted by global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter. FedEx Express results were particularly impacted by macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe, leading to a revenue shortfall in this segment of approximately $500 million relative to company forecasts. FedEx Ground revenue was approximately $300 million below company forecasts.
Specifically for Q1:
FedEx prelim 1Q adj EPS $3.44, est. $5.10
FedEx prelim 1Q Rev. $23.2B, est. $23.54B
FedEx prelim 1Q Adj. oper income $1.23B, est. $1.74B
As a result of the preliminary first quarter financial performance and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment, FedEx is withdrawing its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast provided on June 23, 2022.
Additionally the firm said it was moving to cutting costs:
“While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets.”
As part of these cost-cutting initiatives, FedEx will close 90 office locations, close five corporate office facilities, defer hiring efforts, reduce flights and cancel projects.
“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations,” said Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Corporation president and chief executive officer.
“While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets.”
FDX is down 14% after hours to its lowest since Aug 2020…
This FDX’s biggest daily drop ever…
As @Knowledge_vital noted:
A “horrible, miserable report… It’s a bit strange to hear $FDX speak so negatively following… conference presentations when no one else hinted at an environment like this. .. However,.. investors should assume EPS estimates across the board are at risk.”
Coming just hours after The Atlanta Fed slashed its Q3 GDP outlook, this is not a good sign for the domestic (or global) economy.
Just remember – it’s still definitely not a recession!
CDC spokesperson: ‘the false information was given because CDC thought media reporters were asking about a different type of analysis adding that CDC’s “overall lack of transparency is unacceptable”
What is the bottom line? The bottom line is they all, CDC, NIH, Fauci et al. are trying to run backwards and cover up and reverse what they did the last 2.5 years but we must not let them. These people collectively conspired and caused lives to be lost and they must be accountable. If the CDC did not conduct the proper harms analysis especially in a period when the vaccine was first rolled out, means they, still to today, have no idea about the safety of the vaccine they forced on people.
‘Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the agency’s director, said in a letter made public on Sept. 12 that the CDC did not analyze certain types of adverse event reports at all in 2021, despite the agency previously saying it started in February 2021.
Walensky’s agency had promised in several documents, starting in early 2021, to perform a type of analysis called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) on reports submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, which it helps manage.
But the agency said in June that it did not perform PRRs. It also said that performing them was “outside the agency’s purview.”
Walensky’s newsletter, dated Sept. 2 and sent on Sept. 6 to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), shows that Walensky is aware that her agency gave false information.
The letter “lacked any justification for why CDC performed PRRS during certain periods and not others,” Johnson, the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Investigations, told Walensky in a response.
“You also provided no explanation as to why Dr. Su’s assertion … completely contradicts the CDC’s initial response … as well as your September 6, 2022, response to me,” he added.
He demanded answers from the CDC on the situation, including why the CDC did not perform PRRs until March and why the agency misinformed the public when it said no PRRs were conducted.
The CDC and Walensky did not respond to requests for comment.
Exploding excess (all-cause) mortality & plunging birth rates can be explained by the ravages of the spike protein; as COVID infection deaths have dropped appreciably, there is a rise in vaccine death
I share 4 pieces of evidence for your perusal and updating of your libraries, the issue being that we know the lethal role of the spike protein itself on cardiac cells, on the vascular walls etc. and we thus must infer that the spike manufactured by your cells induced by the COVID injection, will do same. We also know that spike persists in the body for many months and I argue there is no ‘off’ switch and that it persists life-long, doing damage; Patterson et al. showed us this, indicating that the spike post vaccine will persist as a pathogen and cause life-long damage; no one in their right mind would have chosen the spike ‘mutable’ protein as the antigen target and thus it begs the question, why would Pfizer and Moderna et al. chose the lethal toxic portion of the COVID virus as the component to be made by your cells as the antibody target? We even have evidence that the spike purified, on it’s own, is lethal, it does not need the rest of the viral ball to go along with it:
The capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to infect vascular cells is still debated. Additionally, the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) protein may act as a ligand to induce non-infective cellular stress. We tested this hypothesis in pericytes (PCs), which are reportedly reduced in the heart of patients with severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Here we newly show that the in vitro exposure of primary human cardiac PCs to the SARS-CoV-2 wildtype strain or the α and δ variants caused rare infection events. Exposure to the recombinant S protein alone elicited signalling and functional alterations, including: (1) increased migration, (2) reduced ability to support endothelial cell (EC) network formation on Matrigel, (3) secretion of pro-inflammatory molecules typically involved in the cytokine storm, and (4) production of pro-apoptotic factors causing EC death…In conclusion, our findings suggest that the S protein may prompt PC dysfunction, potentially contributing to microvascular injury. This mechanism may have clinical and therapeutic implications.’
‘in the current study, we show that S protein alone can damage vascular endothelial cells (ECs) by downregulating ACE2 and consequently inhibiting mitochondrial function. We administered a pseudovirus expressing S protein (Pseu-Spike) to Syrian hamsters intratracheally. Lung damage was apparent in animals receiving Pseu-Spike, revealed by thickening of the alveolar septa and increased infiltration of mononuclear cells.’
‘Mounting evidence accumulates that hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) and endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are damaged during severe SARS-Cov-2/COVID-19 infection [1, 2]. It has been reported that patient infected with COVID-19 are frequently presented with anemia, lymphopenia, and thrombocytopenia [1,2,3]. This negative effect of the virus on human hematopoiesis and endothelium has been reported in infected patients and demonstrated in vitro after exposure of cells to SARS-Cov-2/COVID-19 spike protein (SP).’
‘Clinical studies have indicated that patients with severe COVID–19 exhibit delayed and weak adaptive immune responses; however, the mechanism by which SARS–CoV–2 impedes adaptive immunity remains unclear. Here, by using an in vitro cell line, we report that the SARS–CoV–2 spike protein significantly inhibits DNA damage repair, which is required for effective V(D)J recombination in adaptive immunity…findings reveal a potential molecular mechanism by which the spike protein might impede adaptive immunity and underscore the potential side effects of full-length spike-based vaccines.’
‘We analyzed T-cell, B-cell, and monocytic subsets in both severe COVID-19 patients and in patients with post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). The levels of both intermediate (CD14+, CD16+) and non-classical monocyte (CD14Lo, CD16+) were significantly elevated in PASC patients up to 15 months post-acute infection compared to healthy controls (P=0.002 and P=0.01, respectively). A statistically significant number of non-classical monocytes contained SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein in both severe (P=0.004) and PASC patients (P=0.02) out to 15 months post-infection.’
Maajid Nawaz has begun to write and he is doing a great job, eloquent, smart, he did a good compilation here and I felt should be shared; key message, do not comply!
Government publishes horrific ONS figures on COVID Vaccine Deaths: 1 in 482 dead within a month, 1 in 246 dead within 60 days, and 1 in 73 dead by May 2022
1) UK Office for National Statistics Reports Mass-Death Post-Vaccine
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported alarming mass-death figures following the Covid-19 “vaccine”. It is all here, backed up and fully referenced. Only a cowering fool who clings to fantasy from fear of reality would not take the below numbers seriously and act to warn all those they know against this unprecedented catastrophe.
The below chart shows the overall number of deaths following Covid-19 vaccination in England between 1st Jan 2021 and 31st May 2022, based on the figures provided by the ONS…
Clearly some of these deaths can be attributed to other causes and would have most likely occurred anyway, but the figures are representative of a real serious problem. We know this thanks to further data from the Office for National Statistics confirming the unvaccinated population in England has the lowest mortality rate per 100,000 population in all age groups…
The following chart shows the monthly age-standardised mortality rates by vaccination status among each age group for Non-Covid-19 deaths in England between January and May 2022, using the figures contained in table 2 of the recently published dataset collated by the UK Government agency, the Office for National Statistics…
These are age-standardised figures. There is no other conclusion that can be found for the fact mortality rates per 100,000 are the lowest among the unvaccinated other than that the Covid-19 injections are killing people.
A landmark peer-reviewed study appears to be the first of its kind to provide hard data on the “excess risk” of adverse side effects of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines in an independent “randomized clinical trial.”..
“In the Moderna trial, the excess risk of serious AESIs (15.1 per 10,000 participants) was higher than the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group (6.4 per 10,000 participants),” the study found.
“In the Pfizer trial, the excess risk of serious AESIs (10.1 per 10,000) was higher than the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group (2.3 per 10,000 participants),” the study added…
The study was published on ScienceDirect on August 31, 2022. The authors include researchers from Stanford University, the University of Maryland, and UCLA.
3) Government, Big Pharma & Big Tech – the Globalists All Colluded
The trust placed in Big Pharma and Big Tech by government began right at the top. Advocated here in parliament by none other than (now former) PM Johnson’s (now estranged) Chief of Staff Dominic Cummings, even after he had left office.
“Former finance minister Rishi Sunak, one of two candidates vying to be Britain’s next premier, criticised the way outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson handled the COVID-19 pandemic, saying it had been a mistake to “empower” scientists and that the downsides of lockdowns were suppressed.”
It is clear since Sunak’s belated and bungled intervention that Big Tech, and in particular Google’s Deep Mind, were all urging government to lockdown faster.
The White House just empowered the US Federal government to roll out policies that hasten their envisioned technocratic transhumanist tyranny.
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the vital role of biotechnology and biomanufacturing in developing and producing life-saving diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines that protect Americans and the world…
We need to develop genetic engineering technologies and techniques to be able to write circuitry for cells and predictably program biology in the same way in which we write software and program computers; unlock the power of biological data, including through computing tools and artificial intelligence..
the DNI shall work closely with the Department of Defense to assess technical applications of biotechnology and biomanufacturing that could be misused by a foreign adversary for military purposes or that could otherwise pose a risk to the United States. In support of these objectives, the DNI shall identify elements of the bioeconomy of highest concern and establish processes to support ongoing threat identification and impact assessments..
But some doctors have woken up and are alarmed by what they have discovered. They are gathering together and are warning the world. I worry for the mental and emotional health of all those medical professionals who participated in administering this historically unprecedented mass-death among the population. Many are waking up to the fact that they have mass-blood on their hands.
Over 400 doctors, scientists and professionals from more than 34 countries this morning declared an international medical crisis due to “diseases and death associated with the ‘COVID-19 vaccines’”…
Launched at a press conference on Saturday, September 10th, the declaration states: “We are currently witnessing an excess in mortality in those countries where the majority of the population has received the so-called ‘COVID-19 vaccines’. To date, this excess mortality has neither been sufficiently investigated nor studied by national and international health institutions.”..
…”Examining the reports on CDC’s VAERS, the U.K.’s Yellow Card System, the Australian Adverse Event Monitoring System, Europe’s EudraVigilance System and the WHO’s VigiAccess Database, to date there have been more than 11 million reports of adverse effects and more than 70,000 deaths co-related to the inoculation of the products known as ‘Covid vaccines’.”
6) The Witch-Hunt:Remember Remember, For I Too Was Born in November
Many of us tried to raise the alarm. We were hounded out of society like the plague. They will need us now as they desperately turn to us once again to keep the peace for them. They will be hoping that we do not behave towards them as despicably as they did towards us. Remember Remember, for I too was born in November.
From lockdown to masks to vaccines, not a single policy these imbeciles imposed on the entire planet was correct. They all did far more harm to the public than any good. And they were all warned. The truth is horrific. It is too scary to contemplate for most people. But there comes a time when reality is undeniable. Even the happiest, most privileged and sheltered cattle being raised for prime Wagyu beef eventually have to face the truth.
It is going to get nasty this winter. People will be hungry. They will be cold. They will be grieving. They deserve to see justice. And justice must be delivered and seen to be delivered. There is no way around that. The future deserves for history to be remembered. But we must not become our own worst enemies. That is exactly what they are hoping for to absolve themselves of blame.
This paper showed us what we needed to know as to long-lived immunity with COVID virus yet it was as if it was never published so I re-highlight; why? because natural immunity is life-long!
Well, as an example, we knew that long-lived bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) provided robust protection. We always knew this (see 1,2,3,4,5,6,7). We also knew that once COVID-recovered, you were at significantly lower risk of re-infection with COVID virus and that the virus had to be appreciably different (substantially mutated on the target antigen) to breach immunity (see 8,9,10). Omicron is highly infection (e.g. BA.4 and BA.5 clades) and presents as a nearly different (sufficiently different) virus given the multiple mutations on the spike protein to present the immune system with a rechallenge and a potential breach. However, the predominant symptoms are mild akin to a common cold.
What did Turner et al. show in the NATURE publication?
end
VACCINE IMPACT/
VACCINE INJURY/
Another Canadian Athlete and Doctor Dies Suddenly During a Cycling Event in Quebec Due to “Cardiac Arrest”
People are “Robbing” Banks in Lebanon to Take Their Own Money from Their Own Accounts
September 15, 2022 11:57 am
As the world’s financial crisis goes from bad to worse, we are increasingly seeing stories where people cannot access their own money in their own bank accounts. In July we reported that there were violent bank runs happening in China because depositors were locked out of their own accounts. When people can no longer access their own funds from the banking cartel, they get desperate. A story out of Lebanon today reports how there have been a rash of bank robberies in that country from depositors robbing the bank to get money out of their own accounts. If you think that banks freezing their own depositors bank accounts and preventing them from withdrawing their own money would never happen in the United States, think again. It was just earlier this year when Canada locked its citizens out of their own bank accounts during the trucker blockades. The Globalists control much of what happens in the world through the banks, and their goal is nothing short of total tyranny and absolute power, as they plan to eliminate cash and move to a Central Bank Digital Currency, where every single financial transaction is controlled by them, and where they can enforce social behavior by simply preventing you from accessing your funds. We are seeing signs of this move to control social and political behavior already, as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have all recently stated that they will start tracking purchases of guns and ammunition. And with the recent targeting of Trump supporters who are all being branded as “White Supremacists,” how long do you think it will be before they start freezing their bank accounts, if that is not happening already? And it is not just Trump supporters who are being targeted. On the anniversary of 9/11 this past weekend, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) chief Alejandro Mayorkas stated that the greatest threat to America today is not foreign terrorists, but American citizens and “domestic terrorism,” which he defined as Americans “radicalized” by an “ideology of hate,” “anti-government sentiment” and “false narratives propagated on online platforms.” Last year the DHS raised the National Terrorism threat alert to include those who opposed COVID measures as “domestic terrorists.” So the “legal” framework is in place for the U.S. Government to freeze bank accounts of those they decide to label as “domestic terrorists,” which is about half the population.
New Study Calls Geoengineering “Planetary Treason” as Earth’s Biosphere is Collapsing Due to Jet-Sprayed Aerosolized Coal Fly Ash
September 15, 2022 5:39 pm
James Marvin Herndon, PhD., from the Transdyne Corporation in San Diego, and Mark Whiteside, the Medical Director of the Florida Department of Health in Monroe County, have just published a study in the “Advances In Social Sciences Research Journal” titled: Collapse of Earth’s Biosphere: A Case of Planetary Treason.
The chairman and CEO of energy company Chevron has warned Americans to brace for price increases in natural gas this winter.
CEO Mike Wirth made the comments in an interview with CNN on Sept. 13 in which he warned consumers that “there’s certainly a risk that costs will go up” when it comes to natural gas.
“Prices already are very high relative to history and relative to the rest of the world. We’re already seeing this impact being felt in the European economy and I do think it’s likely that Europe goes into a recession,” Wirth said.
Europe has been suffering from an energy squeeze in recent months, driven by its decision to wean itself off fuel from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine along with chronic shortages and a move by some EU countries to phase out coal.
The outlook for Europe this winter is now looking more strained after Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom scrapped plans to restart gas flows through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany earlier this month.
Following what was expected to be a temporary shutdown for routine maintenance, Gazprom said that it could not safely restart gas deliveries through the key pipeline until an oil leak in a critical turbine was fixed. Officials have not yet stated when gas supplies will resume through the pipeline.
While Worth noted that the situation in the United States would not be as bad as it is in Europe, the CEO stated that natural gas prices could still be “significantly higher” this winter in the former.
Last month, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm sent a letter to seven refiners including Valero, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, urging them not to increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel and instead help build domestic supplies.
Export Ban Could Have ‘Unintended Consequences’
“Given the historic level of U.S. refined product exports, I again urge you to focus in the near term on building inventories in the United States, rather than selling down current stocks and further increasing exports,” Granholm said in the letter, before noting that the Biden administration will “need to consider additional federal requirements or other emergency measures,” if the companies fail to do so.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP 6.9837
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0166
TURKISH LIRA: 18.28 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.442% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.515 UP 4 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 109.47 UP 2 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 45.60 PTS OR 0.63%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 234.91 POINTS OR 1.81%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 84.78 PTS OR 1.38%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 122.10 OR 1.51%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 260.56PTS OR 1.16%
WTI Oil price 86.08 12: EST
Brent Oil: 92.00 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 60.15 DOWN 0 AND 35/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.745
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0009 DOWN .0022 OR 22 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1422 DOWN .0029 or 29 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.86 DOWN .475//YEN UP 48 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3274 UP 0.0024 (CDN dollar, DOWN 24 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85,38
Brent OIL: 91.56
USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.449 DOWN 1 points
USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.516 UP 4 pts
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.26
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.28 DOWN 0 AND 28/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 139.40 PTS OR 0.25 %
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 66.11 PTS OR 0.55%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 26,37 UP 0.10 PTS (0.38)%
GLD: $155.84 UP 0.86 OR 0.55%
SLV/ $17.99 UP 36 CENTS OR 2.04%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
FedEx Nukes “Economy’s Doing Fine” Narrative, Global Stocks/Bonds Lose $4 Trillion In Week
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 04:00 PM
While some ‘soft’ survey data provided opportunities for the narrative-writers to suggest hope remains, ‘hard data’ this week was not pretty at all (and prompted The Atlanta Fed to slash its Q3 GDP outlook). Bloomberg’s macro surprise index (ex-survey data) tumbled to its weakest since July 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, CPI wrecked the ‘Fed Pivot’ narrative, and given Powell’s reiterated position that inflation is the priority – even if a recession is enabled – that sent inflation-fighting rate-hike expectations soaring this week (and notably sent subsequent recession-fighting rate-cut expectations soaring too)…
Source: Bloomberg
And then FedEx CEO last night confirmed a global recession was underway (which bodes very poorly for global PMIs)…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which stole the jam out of the global “peak inflation and Fed will pivot” narrative that bid stocks and bonds up for a few weeks… wiping out almost $4 trillion in wealth from debt and equity markets worldwide this week…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s quite drop for the “strongest economic recovery in recent history”…
As Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted late in the day today, this week saw the ‘stag’ in staglation-nation show its teeth:
Stagflation has been a market concern for about a year now as investors started to realize late last summer that the Fed may need to raise rates fairly aggressively to stave off emerging persistent inflation impulses.
Monetary tightening regimes seek to slow growth in an effort to reduce upward pressure on prices — effectively to bring demand back inline with available supply. And such a tightening regime can be most successful when growth is slowed just enough to match up supply with demand — a so-called soft landing — but not so much so that demand actually declines, companies layoff a lot of workers, and the economy slips into a recession. And arguably the worst outcome from a tightening regime can come if growth declines, but for whatever reason, inflation does not recede — a so-called stagflation economy, and one not seen in the US since the 1970s.
This week, however, the camp of investors who think that the current environment of high inflation and slowing growth will persist may have grown a bit on the back of the bad mix of data that was released. Essentially, we saw signs of growth slowing (the Philly Fed index fell to -9.9, and FDX talked about a sudden global slowdown in shipping volumes) and inflation rising (Core CPI inflation rose by 0.57% mom in August versus 0.3% a month earlier).
In a scenario where the Fed has to keep pushing against growth until the unemployment rate reaches 5%, we see S&P 500 down-side to 3400.
And in a scenario where unemployment hits 6%, the S&P 500 may dip below 2900. In other words, there may be a lot more downside to markets if stagflation persists.
Today was also quad witch (with $3.2 trillion in OpEx not helping the chaos) as Nasdaq ended the worst on the week, down almost 6%…
The Nasdaq is down over 14% from its mid-August highs, S&P and Dow are down over 10% from those highs…
Put volumes soared this week (outpacing the rise in call volumes) into OpEx, but we note the Put/Call ratio is back at the same level it was at in mid June that marked the interim low in stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were up across the entire curve this week but the short-end was the big underperformer…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s in this case) flattened hard this week, to its most inverted since Sept 2000…
Source: Bloomberg
As yields have soared, bonds are now at their ‘cheapest’ relative to bonds since Feb 2011…TINA has been Epstein’d
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar surged higher this week,. extending gains after Tuesday morning’s hot CPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
The offshore yuan puked for the 5th straight week to its lowest against the greenback since July 2020. Most notably, Beijing has been setting the onshore yuan fix dramatically stronger for 17 straight days as they attempt to show face and fight gravity…
Source: Bloomberg
Sterling fell to its lowest since 1985 today (on the anniversary of ‘Black Wednesday’)…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were all weaker on the week with Ethereum – having successfully transitioned throug the Merge to a PoS protocol – the worst performer…
Source: Bloomberg
Dr.Copper & Mr.Crude both slid lower this week on global growth concerns (thouhg some comeback overnight after China’s macro data miraculously beat). More noatble was the fact that Silver rallied on the week, dramatically outperforming silver…
Source: Bloomberg
The Gold/Silver ratio plunged on the week after silver hit its cheapest relative to the barabrous relic since the COVID crisis. The last two weeks have seen silver’s biggest gains relative to gold since August 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold ended back below $1700 – its lowest since April 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the S&P 500 has now closed below the 200-day for the longest time since the Financial Crisis…
Source: Bloomberg
And extending the Financial Crisis analog suggests this leg down won’t stop until mid-to-late October…
Source: Bloomberg
But would Powell really come out and say something ‘pivotal’ that close to the election? CPI is released on October 13th?
I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//Fed ex turmoil
A Stunned Wall Street Reacts To Fedex’s Biggest Plunge Ever
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 09:05 AM
After shocking Wall Street by yanking its guidance, flagging weakness in Asia, challenges in Europe, announcing office closures and mass layoffs – a fate that awaits most of corporate America – and warning that conditions could deteriorate further in the current quarter, Fedex shares have plunged 21% in premarket trading, its biggest drop on record…
… and – as usual on Wall Street – the move has triggered an avalanche of downgrades from countless banks such as Bank of America, Stifel, JP Morgan and KeyBanc… banks who are supposed to predict the move not react to it, and yet despite the biggest drop ever, there is still just one sell rating!
Then again, nobody ever accused sellside analysts of actually being able to predict the future: if they did, they would be on the buside.
With that said, here’s what analysts have to say:
Bank of America, Ken Hoexter (cuts to neutral from buy)
Notes Express segment revenues coming $400m below forecasts due to macro weakness in Asia and service issues in Europe
Miss against BofA’s own EPS target due to elevated costs
Lowers FY23/24/25 EPS estimates due to impact from rapidly falling macro environment and FedEx’s fixed cost structure
PT dropped to $186 from $275
Stifel, J. Bruce Chan (cuts to hold from buy)
The print was disappointing, as Stifel had given FedEx the benefit of the doubt following “operational missteps” in areas such as the Ground division and progress with TNT integration in Europe
Says FedEx should have achieved similar results to UPS by following same playbook, though thinks it is becoming clear that UPS is executing better.
“We think FedEx is now very much a ‘show me’ story”
PT slashed to $195 from $288
KeyBanc, Todd Fowler (cuts to sector-weight from overweight)
Says KeyBanc’s own near-term expectations were “overly optimistic”; notes the Express segment had meaningfully missed expectations
Sees “challenging path” ahead in the near-term, particularly when decelerating macro datapoints and low confidence in management’s execution are taken into consideration
Timing and magnitude of miss, along with weaker 2Q guidance, after providing an upbeat FY23 outlook and FY25 targets in June will “likely meaningfully shake credibility”
JPMorgan, Brian Ossenbeck (cuts to neutral from overweight)
Results likely had a material tailwind from fuel surcharges in a similar way to 4Q22, masking underlying weakness in 1Q23 results and 2Q23 guide
“It is a sobering thought to consider Express could have lost money (ex-fuel) during the quarter”
Notes how the lack of “freight wave” from China’s reopening seems to have impacted FedEx first due to its status as the leading airfreight carrier in the Asia-Pac region
Says latest confirmation of weak peak season has negative impact on entire sector; expects “shockingly low” Express margin to have the clearest negative read-through to UPS
PT cut to $214 from $258
Morgan Stanley, Ravi Shanker (equal-weight)
Results are the start of a post-pandemic unwind; notes key ocean and air freight pricing benchmarks have mean reverted back to levels seen in 2020, showing that an “industry wide unwind is underway”
Cost inflation remains a risk as revenue mean reverts to pre-pandemic levels; sees new independent service provider contracts being a drag on earnings in FY23 due to higher inflation
Notes the read- across to UPS being significant, despite it not having as much international airfreight exposure
Citi, Christian Wetherbee (neutral)
Says results were “significantly worse” than feared when Citi downgraded to neutral last week
Has seen clear trend in lower freight, though the performance from FedEx “likely stands out to the downside” versus UPS
“FedEx will expedite long-term cost-out initiatives, but we see EPS risk into the mid-teens, yielding short-term downside risk to shares toward $150.”
Oppenheimer, Scott Schneeberger (perform)
Preliminary results were below expectations, with Express and Ground segments coming below internal expectations
Notes Freight outperformance; segment revenue consistent with consensus estimates, while operating income exceeded
Source: Bloomberg
END
THIS AFTERNOON
ii) USA DATA//
iii)USA economic commentaries
Locals are alarmed at a massive corn mill project by a Chinese company in Grand Forks North Dakota with close ties to the CCP.
It makes no sense for the mill. No doubt it was set up for spying as the Grand Forks Air base is only 12 miles away.
(Alan Stein.EpochTimes)
Locals In North Dakota Oppose Massive Corn Mill Project By Chinese Company
One by one, residents opposed to a corn mill investment by a Chinese company with reputed ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through its chairman, got up to chastise the mayor and city council of Grand Forks, North Dakota.
“You guys are the scariest people I know. You are willing to endanger this city, the people, the country, and this nation,” said Dennis Kadlec, an outspoken critic of the project.
He believes city officials have ignored residents’ concerns over the project and the flag they serve.
“This is a republic. Please treat it as such,” Kadlec said.
Kadlec’s accusations of inaction and secrecy on the part of city officials seemed to resonate with other concerned citizens at the city council meeting on Sept. 6.
The group views the corn mill as a potential Chinese spying operation and a threat to the environment and municipal resources.
Some residents see divisions over the project worsening in a close-knit agricultural community of 56,000, where sugar beets and wheat—not corn—are king.
The city of Grand Forks is not a significant producer of corn, either, straddling the Minnesota border about 75 miles south of Canada, where winter temperatures can drop to well below zero.
So the question arises: why would a Chinese company build a corn mill in Grand Forks when harvest volumes are so low?
Critics who fear Chinese espionage say one needs to look no further than Grand Forks Air Force Base, about 12 miles away. The base stores and tests the military’s sensitive drone, satellite, and surveillance technology.
However, city officials supporting the corn mill see the project as an economic opportunity too good to pass up. As the most significant single capital investment in the city’s history, it promises 230 permanent high-paying jobs, higher corn prices for regional growers, and other long-term benefits.
Fufeng USA, the American subsidiary of Fufeng Group, wants to build on 370 acres it acquired that would add millions in sales and property tax revenues and improve city infrastructure.
The “wet corn” mill would employ thousands of workers during construction and, in operation, extract ingredients used to produce animal feed products for sale in the domestic market.
At least on paper, the project looks and sounds good.
What doesn’t sit well with project opponents is the parent company, Fufeng Group, which is based in Shandong Province in China. The company has reputed links with the CCP through its chairman and controlling shareholder, Li Xuechun.
Many residents opposed to the corn mill also feel the city has been translucent in moving the project along, voting to annex land without proper notice to business abutters to sell to Fufeng USA.
Some residents have felt so neglected by the local powers that Jodi Carlson and several others recently formed the Concerned Citizens of Fufeng Project in Grand Forks.
The public group has nearly 3,000 followers on Facebook and vehemently opposes the corn mill project.
Group meetings have become “very contentious,” Carlson told The Epoch Times, “primarily because we’re just tired. The city council continues to say they’ve answered our questions and haven’t. We still have a lot of questions.”
One question is what Fufeng USA plans to do with 250 acres not listed in the development plan, Carlson said.
“We don’t know what’s going to happen with that. We think we have a right [to know], especially since it’s a foreign interest. We don’t think [the city council] vetted it properly. We have a lot of concerns.”
Two U.S. Senators representing North Dakota have raised alarm bells over potential national security issues surrounding the Fufeng USA project amid building tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.
City officials reportedly vowed to stop the project should China invade Taiwan.
Huge shortage of the drug Adderall. These are combo amphetamine products where the raw materials come from China/Taiwan
(zerohedge)
Adderall Shortage Worsens As People Without Drug “Not Able To Focus”, May Impact Productivity
THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 09:20 PM
Adderal supplies in the US are dwindling as pharmacies and patients report shortages. The crux of the problem appears to be a major supplier of the drug for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder has run into supply chain issues. Patients who find themselves without their medication might experience “withdraw” or even a “crash” that could impact productivity at work.
The supply crunch first hit our radar last month when the National Community Pharmacists Association found hundreds of pharmacies across the US had trouble purchasing Adderall and generic versions of the brand in late July.
Bloomberg spoke with a dozen patients in California, Indiana, and Michigan who were told by their local pharmacists at CVS Health Corp. or Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. about a worsening drug shortage.
“In some cases, patients were told they might have to wait more than a week to get their medication, which is supposed to be taken every day,” Bloomberg noted.
Walgreens spokesperson Rebekah Pajak acknowledged that “supply chain challenges” persist with the drug. She said instant-release and extended-release Adderall are the ones in the shortest supply. Meanwhile, CVS spokesperson Matthew Blanchette said Adderall prescriptions at the company’s pharmacies can be filled “in most cases.”
The shortage began at Teva Pharmaceuticals, the US’ largest branded and generic Adderall supplier. Blomberg noted the Israeli multinational pharmaceutical company experienced “labor shortages” that led to the limited supply of brand-name and generic instant-release Adderall. Then three other companies Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc., Rhodes Pharmaceuticals LP, a subsidiary of Purdue Pharma LP, and Novartis AG’s Sandoz unit, all were hit with a surge in orders for generic extended-release Adderall that is now on “back order.”
What appears to have happened in the world of pharmaceuticals is that when one drug manufacturer has a problem, it quickly has a ripple effect across the industry.
The shortage comes as amphetamine sales are at record highs, driven by increased ADHD diagnoses. During the virus pandemic, the federal government eased rules requiring patients to see a doctor in-person before the controlled substance was prescribed which is one of the contributing factors to over-prescription.
For those who miss their daily dosage because of the shortage, it’s entirely possible to experience symptoms of Adderall withdrawal. Some describe it as a “crash” that can leave people drowsy for hours, if not days, and include symptoms of mental and physical exhaustion and feelings of depression.
Anthony Anderson, a 34-year-old special education teacher at a Michigan high school, said he has been without his Adderall since Sept. 6. He’s been taking the medicine for 15 years to treat his ADHD, and without it, he says it’s incredibly difficult to concentrate, which makes it challenging for him to do this job. Sometimes, he forgets what he is talking about mid-sentence.
Anderson was recently talking with a student about a suicide at the school, and at a time when he was supposed to be helping the grieving student, he just couldn’t pay attention.
“I even spaced out when I’m trying to have a serious conversation with this girl to console her, but I spaced out because I’m not able to focus,” he said. “This is a huge issue for me.” -Bloomberg
We would love to see the productivity metrics of performance-based companies over the next several months to see how an Adderall shortage impacted productivity. Then again, Wall Street has the luxury of another stimulant if an Adderall shortage affects Manhattan pharmacies; that is cocaine.
END
The terminal rate needed to tame inflation is 5% but that will set off huge recession
(zerohedge)
Landing At Terminal 5
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 07:04 AM
As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid writes today, “there are many things I’ve got wrong in my career, and plenty I’ll get wrong again” but he certainly is taking a victory lap for having been so far ahead of the game on how far the Fed will need to go in this cycle to tame inflation.
As Reid reminds clients, the house view from the bank’s chief US economist, Matt Luzzetti, has been ahead of the street all year, and in the April “What’s in the tails?” note (discussed here), David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Hooper and Reid set out a more aggressive view suggesting that the Fed Funds would likely need to get in the 5-6% range to tame inflation, which in the process would create a deep recession in 2023. While there was disbelief at the time from the majority, less than half a year later, we are getting closer and closer to the market pricing in such an outcome for peak Fed Funds (currently ~4.4%, which actually makes Ray Dalio’s recent prediction that stocks will drop 20% if the Fed hikes to 4.5%, when 4.4% is already priced in, confirm that he really doesn’t understand much about markets).
Anyway, this morning DB’s Luzzetti upgraded his terminal rate forecast to 4.9% based on a piece (available to pro subs) where they present two approaches for calibrating the appropriate terminal rate. Both approaches – comparing the nominal fed funds rate to inflation and a suite of common policy rules – suggest that a fed funds rate at or around 4.5% could be required by early next year… which is also fully priced in right now.
Meanwhile, accounting for risk management considerations, a rate approaching 5% is likely to be needed. As such, they now expect the Fed’s policy rate to peak at 4.9% in Q1 of next year.
Whilst the modelling Matt’s team have laid out in the note is more sophisticated, in more simplistic terms, as today’s Chart of the Day from Jim Reid shows, nominal fed funds always exceeds inflation by late cycle and as core PCE forecasts get upgraded, this suggests a terminal rate that needs to get closer to 5% to be consistent with the historic pattern.
So despite the recent sharp rise in market pricing of the Fed, Reid concludes that this analysis points to further meaningful upside risk to terminal rate expectations across the street and in markets.
END
Imports To Los Angeles, America’s Largest Port, Plunged 17% In August
The Port of Los Angeles, the highest-volume container gateway in America, is diverging from the nationwide trend. U.S. container imports remain close to record highs, yet imports to LA are falling double digits.
On Thursday, the Port of Los Angeles reported total throughput of 805,672 twenty-foot equivalent units in August, down 15.5% year on year (y/y). Imports came in at 404,313 TEUs, exports at 100,484 TEUs and empties at 300,875 TEUs.
Imports were down big, sinking 16.8% y/y and 16.7% compared to July.
It was the lowest import total in Los Angeles for any month since December, when volumes were suppressed by extreme landside congestion.
It was also the lowest import total in LA for the month of August since 2014, eight years ago, back when Barack Obama was president and Pharrell Williams’ “Happy” topped the charts.
But last month’s import plunge in Los Angeles is not indicative of a countrywide trend. According to data from Descartes, U.S. imports in August were essentially flat compared to July. The nationwide import total was up 18% versus August 2019, pre-COVID. Los Angeles’ imports last month were down 8% versus August 2019.
Los Angeles’ performance stands in stark contrast to the blowout numbers just announced by the Port of Savannah in Georgia. Savannah handled 290,915 TEUs of loaded imports in August, by far the highest tally in the port’s history.
Savannah’s August imports were up 15.6% from July, 14.7% from the previous record month in May, 20% y/y — and 34% versus August 2019, pre-COVID.
Drivers of August decline
During a news conference Thursday, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka pointed to multiple reasons for the drop.
“Some of the cargo that usually arrives in August for our fall and winter seasons is already here,” Seroka said. “Cargo owners who expected longer lead times shipped earlier in order to guarantee delivery schedules. This just-in-case strategy versus the traditional just-in-time approach has been widespread in the market.”
Meanwhile, with 8.3% inflation, Seroka said “consumers are naturally getting a bit anxious, as are retailers. We’re starting to see canceled production orders out of Asia.”
Another reason for weaker August numbers, as highlighted by the booming stats out of Savannah: Imports have shifted to the East and Gulf coasts at the expense of West Coast ports.
“Some shippers diverted cargos to East and Gulf Coast ports in order to avoid port congestion and as a possible hedge against West Coast labor contract negotiations,” Seroka said. “Consequently, those ports have substantial backlogs, while here in Los Angeles, we have very little congestion.”
Yet another reason for August’s drop: local competition from Long Beach, the port next door. A substantial volume of cargo shifted from Los Angeles to Long Beach.
Asked by American Shipper about the cause of the local shift, Seroka said, “There are some discussions on the ground between union leadership and the folks over at APMT [APM Terminals] about health and safety measures around the automated area.”
This led to a shift of around 40,000 TEUs from Los Angeles to Long Beach in August, he disclosed (that equates to around half of the sequential import drop in August versus July). Seroka said that shift to Long Beach could be even higher this month: 60,000-80,000 TEUs.
He maintained that the shift will be temporary and the situation will “get back to normalcy between Los Angeles and Long Beach very soon.”
More volume weakness ahead
Seroka expects the volume pullback to continue in the months ahead.
“The bottom line is that we’re projecting lighter numbers in September and for the balance of the year,” he said. “But to keep things in perspective, even with this projected softer volume in the back half of the year, the Port of Los Angeles is headed toward the second busiest year in our history.”
endI guess that New York is getting a taste of what Texas is going through(Stieber/EpochTimes)
New York City ‘Nearing Its Breaking Point’ With Influx Of Illegal Immigrants From Texas: Mayor
New York City’s shelter system is close to being overwhelmed by the continued influx of illegal immigrants from Texas, the city’s mayor said on Sept. 14.
“In this new and unforeseen reality, where we expect thousands more to arrive every week going forward, the city’s system is nearing its breaking point,” Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, said in a statement.
New York has recorded over 11,000 illegal immigrants entering its shelter system in the past several months, with others going into the homes of family members or friends. A number have come from Texas, which started bussing asylum seekers who were released by federal authorities to Democrat-run “sanctuary cities” earlier this year.
U.S. authorities tell the illegal immigrants to go to court at a later date for the asylum claims to be adjudicated. Most claims are denied and many immigrants don’t show up at court. Authorities rarely deport illegal immigrants, especially under Biden.
Shelter
New York has a law that mandates state and local authorities provide shelter to “the needy.” That means “every asylum seeker that comes to New York will have shelter,” Adams told reporters in a briefing on Thursday.
But officials say they are “reassessing” the city’s practices in following the law because when it was put into place, officials could not “have foreseen” the current situation, a city lawyer told reporters.
Those practices include communications and operational methods.
Adams called Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and other governors who have followed his lead in bussing illegal immigrants to cities “rogue governors” and said officials are trying to figure out various ways to respond to the governors, including legally.
New York is receiving four to six busses per day, according to Manuel Castro, the city’s commissioner of immigrant affairs.
“The Republican party has created a blueprint that all of them are starting to follow,” Adams said.
A spokesperson for Abbott did not respond to a request for comment.
He and other governors have said they’re transporting the immigrants to try to force President Joe Biden, a Democrat, to step up enforcement at the U.S.–Mexico border.
Good news here: Dept of Justice is denied access to Trump raid documents until after the newly appointed special master, Judge Dearie goes over them
(zerohedge)
DOJ Denied Access To Trump Raid Docs After Judge Appoints Special Master
THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 08:00 PM
A special master has been appointed to act as a firewall between the Justice Department and materials seized during an Aug. 8 raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.
In a pair of Thursday orders from federal district Judge Aileen Cannon, the DOJ’s motion to access a subset of classified records stored on the Trump property was denied, and a recently retired judge that both the DOJ and Trump’s team agreed on – recently retired Judge Raymond Dearie – will serve as special master.
Raymond has until Nov. 30, 2022 to complete his review.
Cannon struck down the DOJ’s request for a partial stay of an earlier motion on accessing the seized materials, after lawyers for the government argued that they should be able to review over 100 classified documents taken during the raid – as they are not covered by any claims of personal property or executive privilege.
That said, Cannon sided with a DOJ request for Trump to pay the full cost associated with a special master.
“If the court were willing to accept the government’s representations that select portions of the seized materials are—without exception—government property not subject to any privileges, and did not think a special master would serve a meaningful purpose, the court would have denied plaintiff’s special master request,” wrote Cannon. “The court does not find it appropriate to accept the government’s conclusions on these important and disputed issues without further review by a neutral third party in an expedited and orderly fashion.”
END
Funny!!
Over 100 Migrants Dropped Off Outside Kamala Harris’ DC Home
THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 05:20 PM
Over 100 illegal migrants who were picked up in Eagle Pass, Texas were dropped off outside Vice President Kamala Harris’ residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington DC on Thursday.
The group was sent to DC by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and includes migrants from Venezuela, Columbia, Uruguay and Mexico.
A representative from NGO ‘Sanctuary DMV’ appeared on scene and told the migrants that they would be going to a local church.
“We’ve already set up a church and a location — a safe location for them to tell us where they need to go next, where they have relatives,” said representative Carla Bustillos. “I was surprised to see [the press] here before we could get here. So the press knew the location before we did, some of the volunteers… it’s very frustrating.”
Abbott has argued that Texas border towns are overwhelmed with migrants, and that those in DC, New York and other Democratic ‘sanctuary cities’ should face the realities of the border crisis.
Last week, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a public emergency after busloads of migrants began to overwhelm the nation’s capital.
According to Ranae Eze, press secretary for Texas Gov. Greg Abbot, Bowser is a hypocrite.
“In a city with a population over 700,000, she’s claiming an emergency for just over 7,900 migrants being bused into her sanctuary city,” Eze told the Epoch Times. “That’s barely 1 percent of the population of Washington, D.C. The true emergency is on our nation’s southern border—not in our nation’s capital—where small Texas border towns are overrun and overwhelmed by hundreds of migrants every single day as the Biden Administration dumps them in their communities.
“Instead of fearmongering and complaining about a few thousand migrants in her sanctuary city, Mayor Bowser should call on President Biden to do his job and secure the border—something the President continues failing to do. Governor Abbott’s invitation is still open for Mayor Bowser to visit the border and see the actual crisis firsthand.”
Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis shipped two planes full of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, where residents are freaking out.
end
Facebook Spied On Private Messages Of “Conservative Right-Wing Individuals”, Then Reported To FBI For Domestic Terrorism
FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 11:07 AM
According to DOJ whistleblowers, Facebook has been spying on Americans’ private messages and reporting them to the FBI if they express ‘anti-government or anti-authority’ statements – including questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 US election.
As the New York Post‘s Miranda Devine writes, “Under the FBI collaboration operation, somebody at Facebook red-flagged these supposedly subversive private messages over the past 19 months and transmitted them in redacted form to the domestic terrorism operational unit at FBI headquarters in Washington, DC, without a subpoena.“
“It was done outside the legal process and without probable cause,” said one of the whistleblowers, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Facebook provides the FBI with private conversations which are protected by the First Amendment without any subpoena.”
According to one Post source, “They [Facebook and the FBI] were looking for conservative right-wing individuals.None were Antifa types.”
The Facebook users whose private communications Facebook had red-flagged as domestic terrorism for the FBI were all “conservative right-wing individuals.”
“They were gun-toting, red-blooded Americans [who were] angry after the election and shooting off their mouths and talking about staging protests. There was nothing criminal, nothing about violence or massacring or assassinating anyone.
…
Some of the targeted Americans had posted photos of themselves “shooting guns together and bitching about what’s happened [after the 2020 election]. A few were members of a militia but that was protected by the Second Amendment …-NY Post
Once flagged, the private messages were farmed out as “leads” to FBI field offices around the country, which would then reach out to that area’s US Attorney’s Office to legally obtain the private conversations they had already been shown.
“As soon as a subpoena was requested, within an hour, Facebook sent back gigabytes of data and photos. It was ready to go. They were just waiting for that legal process so they could send it,” said one source.
That said, the feds aren’t finding much to prosecute.
“It was a waste of our time,” said one source familiar with the 19-month ‘frenzy’ by the FBI to find domestic terrorism cases to match the Biden administration’s rhetoric after the Jan. 6 2021, Capitol riot.
Facebook has denied the allegations in two contrasting statements sent one hour apart.
“These claims are false because they reflect a misunderstanding of how our systems protect people from harm and how we engage with law enforcement. We carefully scrutinize all government requests for user information to make sure they’re legally valid and narrowly tailored and we often push back. We respond to legal requests for information in accordance with applicable law and our terms and we provide notice to users whenever permitted,” said Erica Sackin, a spokesperson at Facebook’s parent company, Meta.
Then, in a second “updated statement” sent 64 minutes later, Sackin changed her language to say that the claims were “wrong” and not “false.”
“These claims are just wrong. The suggestion we seek out peoples’ private messages for anti-government language or questions about the validity of past elections and then proactively supply those to the FBI is plainly inaccurate and there is zero evidence to support it,” said Sackin, a DC-based crisis response expert who previously worked for Planned Parenthood and “Obama for America” and now leads Facebook’s communications on “counterterrorism and dangerous organizations and individuals.” (via NY Post)
The FBI would neither confirm nor deny the allegations, but did acknowledge that the agency has a relationship with social media companies that enable a “quick exchange” of information and an “ongoing dialogue.”
“The FBI maintains relationships with U.S. private sector entities, including social media providers. The FBI has provided companies with foreign threat indicators to help them protect their platforms and customers from abuse by foreign malign influence actors. U.S. companies have also referred information to the FBI with investigative value relating to foreign malign influence. The FBI works closely with interagency partners, as well as state and local partners, to ensure we’re sharing information as it becomes available. This can include threat information, actionable leads, or indicators. The FBI has also established relationships with a variety of social media and technology companies and maintains an ongoing dialogue to enable a quick exchange of threat information,” said the agency in a statement.
Facebook’s denial that it proactively provides the FBI with private user data without a subpoena or search warrant, if true, would indicate that the initial transfer has been done by a person (or persons) at the company designated as a “confidential human source” by the FBI, someone with the authority to access and search users’ private messages.
In this way, Facebook would have “plausible deniability” if questions arose about misuse of users’ data and its employee’s confidentiality would be protected by the FBI.
“They had access to searching and they were able to pinpoint it, to identify these conversations from millions of conversations,” according to one of the DOJ sources.
Recall in late August Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed to Joe Rogan that the FBI warned the company about “Russian propaganda” right before the Hunter Biden story broke – which the company then censored aggressively.
In the cases of allegedly surveilled DMs, snippets of private messages were passed to the FBI, partially redacted and often without context, and which contained cherry-picked portions of conversations that highlighted the most egregious statements.
“But when you read the full conversation in context [after issuing the subpoena] it didn’t sound as bad … There was no plan or orchestration to carry out any kind of violence,” said one of the Post‘s sources.
According to the report, more FBI whistleblowers are ready to expose what’s going on within the agency.
“The most frightening thing is the combined power of Big Tech colluding with the enforcement arm of the FBI,” said one source. “Google, Facebook and Twitter, these companies are globalist. They don’t have our national interest at heart.”
KING REPORT
The King Report September 16, 2022 Issue 6845
Independent View of the News
Biden CAVES to rail unions to avoid catastrophic strike and hands out immediate $11K bonus and a 24% wage increase (By 2024; 14.1% raise immediately; 5 annual $1k bonuses.) https://t.co/v1vyACaZQZ
@LaurenKGurley: SCOOP: @JStein_WaPo and I have confirmed that railroads have agreed to give workers the ability to take days off for medical care without being subject to discipline. This was THE key demand that railroad workers wanted to strike over, and they got it.
Wage inflation, stoking a self-reinforcing inflation spiral, is exactly what the Fed is trying to prevent. Now, the cost of transportation will escalate; plus, workers and unions, knowing it’s an election year, will demand higher wages – and they have a benchmark raise hike rate.
US August Retail Sales: +0.3% m/m, -0.1% expected; July revised to -0.4% from 0.0% Ex-Autos Sales -0.3% m/m, 0.0% expected; July revised to 0.0% from +0.4% Ex-Autos & Gas Sales 0.3% m/m, 0.5% expected; July revised to 0.3% from 0.7%
Sept Empire Mfg -1.5, -12.9 expected Sept Phil Fed Business Outlook -9.9, +2.3 expected
US August Industrial Production unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m; 0.0% was consensus. Manufacturing Production +0.1%, -0.1% expected. July Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production revised 0.1 lower to 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Capacity Utilization 80.0%, 80.2% expected.
US Initial Jobless Claims: 213k, 227k expected; Previous revised to 218k from 222k Continuing Claims 1.403m, 1.478m expected; Previous revised to 1.4.01m from 1.473m
Sternlicht’s Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion – The property owner is seeking to sell thousands of rental homes as the US housing market starts to ease. Starwood, one of the largest apartment owners in the US, was an aggressive buyer of rental houses during the first two years of the pandemic, as renters sought bigger spaces to ride out the remote-working era. In May, Sternlicht told Bloomberg that his firm owned roughly 15,000 single-family rentals and 100,000 apartments, arguing that rising mortgage rates would create more demand for rental housing… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/sternlicht-s-starwood-looks-to-unload-3-000-homes-for-1-billion
The Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9. After this week’s releases… decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
ESZs traded mostly in positive territory from the Asian opening at 18:00 ET until they broke down at 6:30 ET. The decline persisted until the usual dip buyers went nuts after the NYSE open. ESZs soared from 3940.50 at 9:38 ET to a daily high of 3977.50 at 9:58 ET. Then, aggressive sellers appeared; ESZs sank to a daily low of 3922.75 at 11:12 ET. It sure smelled like a pump & dump.
The obligatory rally into the European close appeared. After the 11:30 ET European close, ESZs and stocks descended to new lows. A Noon Balloon developed. When the afternoon arrived, someone manipulated ESZs 21 handles higher in only 3 minutes!
Before the early afternoon manipulation, SPY September 392 thru 396 calls had aggregate volume of over 700k. SPY was 391 and change. SPY hit 394.32 at 13:23 ET; but that was it. The rush to liquidate commenced; ESZs and stocks then tumbled until 15:28 ET. Someone then juiced ESZs from the daily low of 3905.00 to 3927.25 at 15:49 ET. Sellers reappeared; ESZs gyrated wildly into the close.
USZs traded higher during early Asian trading. They broke down at 22:19 ET. The decline ended at 6:33 ET with USZs losing one point from the 132 9/32 high. After a batch of US economic data was released at 8:30 ET, USZs spiked to 132 5/32. Sellers quickly sent USZs lower. The US 2-year hit 2.86%.
Positive aspects of previous session Early Euro & US equity trader rallies, abetted by threats of yen intervention and expiry manipulation Blatant upward manipulation appeared during the final 27 minutes of NYSE trading
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds traded mostly between small gains and losses There were three significant ESZ declines for the day Energy commodities rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How low will stocks go? How high will the Fed go?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3910 Previous session High/Low: 3959.14; 3888.28
The oldest government in history – America’s gerontocracy is disconnecting Congress from the rest of the country, an Insider data analysis reveals… In the 1960s, the median age of Congress was 53.7, and it stayed flat for three decades…Today, about a quarter of Congress is over the age of 70, the highest percentage ever. At the same time, while half the country is aged 38 or younger, just 5 percent of Congress can say the same… https://www.businessinsider.com/gerontocracy-united-states-congress-red-white-and-gray-data-charts-2022-9
How Weed Became the New OxyContin – Big Pharma and Big Tobacco are helping market high-potency, psychosis-inducing THC products as your mother’s ‘medical marijuana’ “I started seeing people with the worst psychosis symptoms that I have ever seen,” she told me. “And the worst delusions I have ever seen.” These cases were even more acute than what she’d seen from psychotic patients on meth. Some of the delusions were accompanied by “severe violence.” But these patients were coming up positive only for cannabis… In 2012, Colorado legalized marijuana. In the decade since, 18 other states have followed suit. As billions of dollars have flowed into the new above-ground industry of smokable, edible, and drinkable cannabis-based products, the drug has been transformed into something unrecognizable to anyone who grew up around marijuana pre-legalization. Addiction medicine doctors and relatives of addicts say it has become a hardcore drug, like cocaine or methamphetamines. Chronic use leads to the same outcomes commonly associated with those harder substances: overdose, psychosis, suicidality. And yet it’s been marketed as a kind of elixir and sold like candy for grown-ups… https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-weed-became-new-oxycontin-marijuana-psychosis-addiction
(After the NYSE close) FedEx Is Withdrawing FY2023 Earnings Forecast – BBG 16:30 ET
FedEx moves to cut costs, withdraws 2023 guidance after first-quarter shipments disappoint FedEx withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.The company will close 90 offices, five corporate locations and defer hiring.Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expectedRevenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expectedhttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fedex-fdx-earnings-q1-2023-miss-estimates.html
FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’https://t.co/BgTNxUCmkC
FedEx shares tumbled as much as 13.2% in after-hours trading. ESZs sank 22 handles.
Today – The expiry squeeze aborted three times on Thursday. Too many small and medium-sized traders are too long SPY September options. There are usually buyers of stock on the NYSE open to replace expiry futures contracts. If the NYSE open and the immediate aftermath are soft, it implies traders that are long stuff for an expected expiry-related rally on the NYSE open are trapped on the long side.
ESZs are -22.50 at 20:25 ET. Can expiry manipulators save the stock market?
Expected economic data: Sept UM Sentiment 60, Current Conditions 59.4, Expectations 59
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3919.52 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4018.52 triggers a buy signal
Judge names special master in Trump FBI case U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon on Thursday appointed New York Judge Raymond Dearie as special master to independently review documents the FBI took from former President Donald Trump’s Florida home in early August. Cannon’s appointment of Dearie came alongside a separate ruling that denied the Department of Justice’s request to continue its own review of the documents… Trump had named Dearie as a potential candidate to serve as special master, a choice to which the DOJ did not object. The agency had nominated two of its own potential reviewers. President Ronald Reagan appointed Dearie to the bench in the 1980s. He served as a New York judge until his retirement in 2011… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/judge-names-special-master-trump-fbi-case
Illegal Aliens: Being Flown to a Town Near You? June 10, 2022 The Biden administration is surreptitiously, and illegally, moving migrants around the country. This is a shameful circumvention of the rule of law — under Section 1325 of Title 8 in the U.S. Code, which prohibits “improper entry into the United States by an alien” — and an enormous political scandal that should be receiving more media attention…In January, Fox News obtained video showing buses transporting dozens of illegal immigrants to a parking garage in Brownsville, Texas. Taxis then drove the migrants to Harlington Airport to be flown to cities including Miami, Atlanta, and Houston… https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/06/illegal-aliens-being-flown-to-a-town-near-you/
GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: The Left is outraged about Republicans busing or flying a small number of illegal aliens to their cities. But Biden’s Department of Homeland Security has been doing this nationwide since he entered the Oval Office.
@GovRonDeSantis: “We are not a sanctuary state and it’s better to be able to go to a sanctuary jurisdiction. And we help facilitate that transport for you… Biden would fly people in the middle of the night, dump them all across this country, there was no warning on this. All those people in DC, in New York were beating their chests when Trump was president, saying they were so proud to be sanctuary jurisdictions, saying how bad is was to have a secure border. The minute even a small fraction of what those border towns deal with every day is brought to their front door, they all of a sudden go berserk and they’re so upset this is happening. It just shows you their virtue signaling is a fraud. They are supporting policies that are indefensible…https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1570449660019359744
@charliekirk11: All of a sudden, 50 illegal aliens showing up unannounced to Martha’s Vineyard is a “humanitarian crisis,” according to the Left. How about 5,000 illegal aliens crossing into Texas every single day? What should we call that?
@thejcoop: (WH press sec) Karine Jean-Pierre: Illegal aliens deserve better “than being left in Martha’s Vineyard. They deserve a lot better than that.” Let that one sink in.
Questions for all the libs and MSM types complaining that transporting illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard or NYC or Chicago or DC is inhumane: Where should illegal immigrants settle and who should take care of them?
DeSantis aide @ChristinaPushaw: Martha’s Vineyard residents should be thrilled about this. They vote for sanctuary cities — they get a sanctuary city of their own. And illegal aliens will increase the town’s diversity, which is strength. Right? Martha’s Vineyard, a community of billionaires with 8-12 bedroom mansions, doesn’t have “resources” to care for illegal aliens but Texas border towns do?
@RubinReport: Hilarious watching the virtue signaling Left and corporate press sidekicks cry over DeSantis sending illegals to Martha’s Vineyard. Surely Obama could put just one family up on his waterfront compound? Or maybe too risky because of climate change?!
@MaxNordau: The left-wing meltdown about 50 (yes, 50) illegal aliens in Martha’s Vineyard shows that they never really believed any of their rhetoric about sanctuary, diversity equity, inclusion, job creation, gross domestic product, social stability, and food trucks.
@abigailmarone: Democrats have spent years advocating for open borders, mass amnesty, and demonizing anyone who wants a secure border. Now, they’re forced to deal with a couple hundred illegal immigrants where they live, and they absolutely lose their minds. The left are not serious people.
@RNCResearch: Reporter: “Harris said that the border is closed. Is the border closed?” Illegal Immigrant: “The border is open…everybody believes that the border is open. It’s open because we enter. We come in, free, no problem…We came illegally.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1570396002326044675
@RealMacReport: Two migrant buses from Southern Border just arrived outside Kamala Harris residence at Naval Observatory in DC. https://t.co/41QnF3p16W
Illinois governor declares emergency disaster after hundreds of migrants bused from Texashttps://t.co/tNvW4lWVjo
@RealMacReport: On migrants bused in from Texas, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot says: “This is a national problem, it needs a national solution, cities and states cannot be left to fend for ourselves.” They had no problem when it was a border state problem. https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1570139805362561024
The regime media and Dems were giddy when Biden flew illegal immigrants into small towns. Now blue local officials are declaring emergency disasters and humanitarian crises after dozens of illegal immigrants arrive in blue areas – after MILLLIONS of illegal immigrants have poured over border towns and into small towns. Where was the outrage for that?
Now that shipping illegal immigrants to big blue bastions has displayed liberal NIMBY hypocrisy, some politician should propose outlawing private jets, except for Air Force 1 and 2, due to climate change.
Lear jet liberals have been insulated for far too long from the politicians’ policies that they fund!
@newsmax: The Biden administration is continuing to turn a blind eye to many of the crisis situations facing Americans, including the increased amounts of fentanyl that is being brought across the nation’s border with Mexico, Rep. Ashley Hinson said on Newsmax. https://t.co/3YZ9CYI6hh
@RNCResearch: Liberal logic: 50 illegal immigrants in Martha’s Vineyard = a “humanitarian crisis” 4.2 million illegal immigrants crossing the border in 19 months = a “secure border”
Exclusive: Biden urges Mexico to take migrants under COVID expulsion order he promised to end U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised concerns about an escalating number of crossings by migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela during a visit on Monday to Mexico City, two U.S. and two Mexican officials told Reuters, but Mexico did not promise any specific actions… https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/exclusive-biden-urges-mexico-take-migrants-under-covid-expulsion-order-he-2022-09-14/
Whistleblower: FBI labeled ‘Veteran-led organization’ domestic terrorist group This information comes as FBI Director Christopher Wray continues to stone-wall members of Congress regarding numerous whistleblower disclosures that FBI officials are pressuring agents to reclassify questionable cases the bureau is investigating as ‘domestic terrorism,’ according to a letter released by the Republican ranking member with the House Judiciary late Wednesday night… https://saraacarter.com/whistleblower-fbi-labeled-veteran-led-organization-domestic-terrorist-group/
FBI insiders say White supremacy threat overblown as Biden opens summit about racists, extremists – FBI insiders say white supremacy, domestic terror threat exaggerated “The demand for White supremacy” coming from FBI headquarters “vastly outstrips the supply of White supremacy,” said one agent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We have more people assigned to investigate White supremacists than we can actually find.”.. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/sep/14/biden-host-white-house-summit-combat-racism-violen/
Facebook spied on private messages of Americans who questioned 2020 election… and reporting them to the FBI if they express anti-government or anti-authority sentiments — or question the 2020 election — according to sources within the Department of Justice. Under the FBI collaboration operation, somebody at Facebook red-flagged these supposedly subversive private messages over the past 19 months and transmitted them in redacted form to the domestic terrorism operational unit at FBI headquarters in Washington, DC, without a subpoena… In a statement Wednesday, the FBI neither confirmed nor denied allegations put to it about its joint operation with Facebook, which is designated as “unclassified/law enforcement sensitive.”… “They [Facebook and the FBI] were looking for conservative right-wing individuals. None were Antifa types.”… The DOJ sources have decided to speak to The Post, at risk to their careers, because they are concerned that federal law enforcement has been politicized and is abusing the constitutional rights of innocent Americans… https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/facebook-spied-on-private-messages-of-americans-who-questioned-2020-election/
@DonaldJTrumpJr: There’s something seriously broken in federal Law Enforcement if they’re going after Mike Lindell, but not the people on Jeffery Epstein’s list.
@thebradfordfile: The FBI spied on Trump, fabricated evidence, framed him for treason, lied about all of it, has never been held accountable and is still trying to finish what they started.
Putin acknowledges China’s “concerns” over war with Ukraine “We highly appreciate the well-balanced position of our Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said, facing Xi across a long table. “We understand your questions and your concerns in this regard, and we certainly will offer a detailed explanation of our stand on this issue during today’s meeting, even though we already talked about it earlier,” he added… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-putin-xi-china-concerns/
It’s clear to me that the Deep State Democrat Party has zero to offer voters. Killing babies, taking your guns, offering unlimited war funding for Ukraine and driving you into poverty is not a vote-getting platform, but that is their platform. This is why the Dem election plan appears to be: lie, cheat, steal, intimidate (with the FBI and DOJ) and silence any opposition or critic. Can it work? No! But the desperate Dems are trying it anyway because it’s all they’ve got. Whether it’s raiding President Trump’s home or taking pillow man Mike Lindell’s phone while serving a search warrant at a fast food joint, that’s the plan in plain sight.”
This weird political theater is happening all because they know the real Biden approval numbers that the public does not get to see. The AP just came out with a new poll that says Biden’s numbers are on the rise. I say this is a continuing Biden-psyop that is total bull crap. They are trying to give Biden some coattails for the upcoming midterm election, and I think the lying legacy media (LLM) are lying to do it. It ain’t going to work. Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer is already throwing in the towel on the House and says Nancy is not going to retain the majority. Maybe this is why Pelosi wants an ambassador job from the Biden handlers. The real approval number is 12% for sleepy Joe. Again, the public never sees this number, but everybody in the know knows it.
The stock market tanked 1,500 points this week alone, inflation holding at 8.3% (the real number is about 18% according to Shadowstats.com), and the Fed is determined to fight inflation with rate hikes. The hike next week will be at least .75%, but people are worried about a full 1% hike to kill the inflation monster, which will kill the economy. Add the financial implosion taking place in the EU as the war with Russia continues, and this brings to mind the phrase “Run Forrest Run.” You better get ready because there is no way out this time. The “Everything Implosion” is coming.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.16.22
Gerald Celente, publisher of The Trends Journal, will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Celente is one of the top trends forecasters in the world and will update us on everything from the economy to politics.
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