DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,804.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/30/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/05/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

357 C WEDBUSH 8
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
661 C JP MORGAN 368 354
685 C RJ OBRIEN 5
690 C ABN AMRO 1 24
737 C ADVANTAGE 19 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 7 11
905 C ADM 7 6

TOTAL: 425 425
MONTH TO DATE: 768

EXCHANGE: COMEX

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 354/425

_____________________________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JULY CONTRACT 425 NOTICE(S) FOR 42,500 Oz//1.3219 TONNES)

total notices so far: 768 contracts for 76800 oz (2.3888 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

141 NOTICE(S) FILED 7,05,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1638 : for 8,190,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 540.709 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1616 CONTRACTS TO 139,925 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.41) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 340,000 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : -1138

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 1 days, total 500 contracts: 2.500 million oz OR 2.5MILLION OZ PER DAY. (500 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.5 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 2.5 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1616 DESPITE OUR $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 500 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 340,000 OZ // .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2116 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.580 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE..

WE HAD 141 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 705,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 2467 CONTRACTS TO 495,832 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —7097 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $9.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8400 OZ

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3506 OI CONTRACTS 10.905 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5973 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 502,929

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,603, WITH 4630 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5973 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,603 CONTRACTS OR 32.979TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5973) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2467,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3506 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

5973 CONTRACTS OR 597,300 OZ OR 32.979 TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5973 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 32.979 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 32.979/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.929% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 2238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 32.979 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1616 CONTRACT OI TO 139,925 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 2725 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 500 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1616 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 500 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2116 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.580 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.41 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.98 PTS OR 0.32% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed DOWN 457.42 OR 1.73% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.39 /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7096 /Oil DOWN TO 107.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 111.76 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7096 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7113: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 2467 CONTRACTS TO 499,832 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $9.20 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5973 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5973 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 AUG :5973 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5973 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3506 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5973 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 2467 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.25.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY (3.1797),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 3.1797 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $9.20) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//// WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 10.905 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (2.914 TONNES)…

WE HAD -7097 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,603 CONTRACTS OR 1,060,300 OZ OR 32.979 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 278,012/// fair/

final gold volumes/yesterday 230,782 /fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 1

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	97,617.421 oz Brinks Int. Delaware JPMorgan includes2696 kilobars//Brinks
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	24,581.842 oz HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today	425 notice(s) 42500 OZ 1.3219 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	253 contracts 25,300 oz 0.7869 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	768 notices 76,800 OZ 2.3888 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposit

i) Into HSBC 24,581.842 oz

total deposits: 24,581.842 oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Brinks: 86,679.09 oz

ii) JPMorgan 10,616.821 oz

iii) Int. Delaware: 321.510 oz (10 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 97,617.421 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:3 all dealer to customer

Brinks 2849.366 oz

JPMorgan 302.303 oz

Manfra: 64,628.510 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 678 contracts losing 259 contracts from yesterday. We had

343 notices filed on Thursday so we gained 84 contracts or an additional 8400 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 3945 contracts UP to 397,521 contracts

We had 425 notice(s) filed today for 42500 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 368 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 425 contract(s) of which 354 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (768) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JULY 678 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 425 x 100 oz per contract equals 102,100 OZ OR 2.914 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of JUly.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (768) x 100 oz+ (678) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (425} x 100 oz} which equals 102,100 oz standing OR 3.1797 TONNES in this active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 3.1797 TONNES (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,419,784.828 oz 75.26 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 32,989.550.8 OZ

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,877,907.178 OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,111,643.639 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,691,859.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 1

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,522,159.820 oz Brinks Int Delaware JPMorgan Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,988,014.647ozCNT Delaware JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)	141CONTRACT(S)705,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	1338 contracts (6,690,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1638 contracts 8,190,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 284m291.861 oz

ii) Into Delaware 5079.386 oz

iii0 Into JPMorgan: 1,698,643.471 oz

total deposit: 1,988,014.647 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 171.727 million oz/337.321 million =50.90% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Brinks 370,852.600 oz

ii) out of Int. Delaware 167,586.840 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan 791,827.510 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 191,892.860 oz

total withdrawal 1,522,159.820 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.331 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337,321 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 1479 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1565. WE HAD 1497 NOTICES FILED

YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST 68 CONTRACTS OR 340,000 OZ WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON

AUGUST LOST 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1437

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 2783 CONTRACTS UP TO 116,995 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 141 for 7,05,000 oz

Comex volumes:74.575// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65,349 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1638 x 5,000 oz = 8,190000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(1479) and the number of notices served upon today 141 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 1638 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (1479) – number of notices served upon today (141) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 14,880,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1050.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 540.709 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

-END-

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Views on gold/recognizing financial repression

USA gold/GATA

USAGold’s ‘News & Views’ letter for July is published

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-30 11:37 Section: Daily Dispatches

11:34a ET Thursday, June 30, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold’s “News & Views” letter for July, published today, contains its usual collection of insightful observations about the financial markets and especially gold, some of them recognizing “financial repression” and the like. It’s posted in the clear here:

NV#1043JULY2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Your weekend reading material

(Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: Inflation, recession, and new currencies

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-30 12:50Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, June 30, 2022

Central bankers are trying to steer markets away from higher interest rates, citing growing evidence of the harm they are doing to economic growth. Quantitative tightening is dead on arrival.

Predictably — because it is a repetitive cycle — bank credit is beginning to contract. But contracting bank credit is associated with periodic systemic crises. The credit contraction crisis promises to be even worse than the Lehman failure and any that came before it. And because central banks are sure to protect financial asset values from collapsing, their currencies are likely to suffer instead. Being entirely fiat, unbacked by legal money, currencies are dependent entirely on the public faith in a financial system that lacks the backing of real money.

We are all rapidly drifting onto the rocks that sank John Law in 1720. Central bankers, like John Law with his Mississippi bubble, are prioritising support for financial asset values over their currencies, which is what interest rate suppression is all about. Just as Law’s fiat livres rapidly became worthless, so will today’s fiat currencies.

Therefore, for self-protection, it is time to fully understand the difference between legal money, fiat currency, and the importance of bank credit.

Central banks refuse public access to legal money, which is their gold reserves. Nor is access demanded by the investment establishment, which has thrived on monetary inflation. Instead, there is a developing debate about collapsing currencies being backed by commodities instead. This article puts these developments into context. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/inflation-recession-and-new-currencies

END

USA dollar’s share of FX reserves steady in Q1 but euro’s share falls

(zerohedge)

U.S. dollar’s share of FX reserves steady in Q1, euro’s share falls

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-30 13:14Section: Daily Dispatches

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
Reuters
via U.S. News and World Report, Washington
Thursday, June 30, 2022

NEW YORK — The U.S. dollar’s share of currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund was 58.8% in the first quarter, unchanged from that of the last three months of 2021, IMF data showed on Thursday.

The greenback remains the largest-held currency reserve by global central banks.

The euro’s share, however, slipped to 20% in the first quarter from 20.6% in the previous three months. In 2009, the euro hit its highest share at 28%.

Global reserves, which are reported in U.S. dollars, are assets of central banks held in different currencies used primarily to support their liabilities. Central banks sometimes use reserves to help support their respective currencies.

“The (IMF) data is not a major surprise after what happened in Ukraine … The dollar only got stronger and the euro got weaker, and I suspect those trends will not change much in the near term,” said Kenneth Broux, an FX strategist at Societe Generale in London. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-06-30/u-s-dollar-share-of-fx-reserves-steady-in-q1-euro-share-dips-imf-says

END

For your interest..

(Comtois/Franklin Templeton Investments/ChrisPowell/GATA)

Invest ‘responsibly’ in gold under rules set by the market’s riggers, the LBMA and JPMorgan

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-30 22:32Section: Daily Dispatches

Accprding to the fund’s prospectus —

https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/FGLD_P

— the fund’s gold custodian is JPMorgan in London, its gold is not insured, only “authorized participants” and not ordinary shareholders may redeem shares for metal, and the fund’s initial authorized participant is JPMorgan Securities. How responsible!

Franklin Templeton Launches Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF

By James Comtois
Franklin Templeton Investments
San Mateo, California
Thursday, June 30, 2022

Franklin Templeton today announced the launch of the Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF (NYSE Arca: FGLD). FGLD seeks to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the expense of fund operations, and is priced at 15 basis points. The shares will trade on NYSE Arca.

The fund defines “responsibly sourced gold” as London Good Delivery gold bullion bars that were refined on or after January 1, 2012, which have been refined in accordance with London Bullion Market Association’s Responsible Gold Guidance. The LBMA’s Responsible Gold Guidance establishes minimum requirements that are mandatory along the entire gold supply chain for all Good Delivery refiners wishing to trade with the London bullion market, intended to ensure, among other things, that London Good Delivery gold is mined through verified supply chains that meet certain internationally recognized ethical standards.

“We are excited to offer FGLD as one of the most cost-effective gold ETFs in the market,” said David Mann, head of global exchange traded funds capital markets, in a news release. “We believe it’s a fantastic option for investors looking to add gold investments to their portfolios, offering a compelling way to participate in the physical gold market, with the added peace of mind of knowing that this gold is responsibly sourced.”: …

… For the remainder of the announcement:

https://www.etftrends.com/volatility-resource-channel/franklin-templeton-launches-franklin-responsibly-sourced-gold-etf/

END

Raging USA inflation is far worse than we are being told according to Daily Mail’s Puzder and Jim Talent

(zerohedge)

Andy Puzder and Jim Talent: Raging U.S. inflation is far worse than we’re being told

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-30 22:52Section: Daily Dispatches

By Andy Puzder and Jim Talent
Daily Mail, London
Thursday, June 30, 2022

The outlook for the U.S. economy is bad and potentially getting worse.

Today the Commerce Department released new consumer spending numbers showing that the prices Americans are paying for goods and services climbed 6.3% over the past year, as inflation maintained its upward momentum.

Just 24 hours earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned, yet again, that his efforts to rein in runaway price increases by raising interest rates may plunge the nation into recession.

And he said it’s worth the risk.

“The bigger mistake to make — let’s put it that way — would be to fail to restore price stability,” he said at the European Central Bank’s annual economic policy conference in Portugal.

Prior to that revised GDP numbers showed the US economy contracted even more than initially reported in the first quarter of the fiscal year, as more consumers opted to save instead of spending their hard-earned dollars.

Now what if we told you that America’s economic outlook is even darker than that?

What if we told you that the dire statistics splashed across the headlines and your TV screens don’t even come close to accurately describing the reality?

Well, buckle up — because that’s what we’re telling you. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10969221/Raging-inflation-FAR-WORSE-told-ANDY-PUZDER-JIM-TALENT.html

END

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

“I’m A Fan Of Gold” – Seth Klarman Supports ‘Prudent’ Positioning As Goldman Hikes Precious Metal Price Target

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 01:28 PM

Gold broke down this morning below $1800, losing its modest gains for the year (but still outperforming bonds, stocks, and crypto YTD). This move comes amid geopolitical chaos, monetary policy uncertainty (rate-cut expectations soaring), and recession fears growing.

Nevertheless, Baupost’s Seth Klarman said in his latest note to investors that:

“I’m a fan of gold. I think gold’s valuable in a crisis.”

And we suspect few believe we are not in crisis currently.

So why has gold been hammered, and what happens next?

Goldman’s Mikhail Sprogis and his commodities research team believe a ‘wealth shock’ has subdued Gold’s rally and raised their target price for the precious metal to $2500.

While it is tempting to blame gold’s recent weakness on a lack of investment demand due to higher US rates, we view gold’s sell-off this quarter as in line with a weaker CNY and primarily reflecting the impact of lockdowns on the Chinese economy.

There is little doubt to us that Chinese lockdowns had a large impact on spot gold demand in China, with gold jewelry sales falling by 30% YoY in April. The re-introduction of Chinese lockdowns represented a significant hit to the Chinese economy and the PBOC allowed for some CNY depreciation to ease financial conditions. As the CNY dropped, gold followed it lower.

The positive news is that lockdowns are easing in China…

This is not surprising since we find that, historically, the CNY has the largest impact on gold among major currencies…

This negative Wealth effect for gold was amplified by a liquidation of short-term-oriented futures and ETF positions,which are very sensitive to trends in the dollar. In turn, the gold real rates correlation remains broken as higher real rates now go hand-in-hand with greater ‘Fear’ of a DM recession which is, on net, positive for gold investment demand, in our view.

Reversal of the Wealth shock will allow focus to shift back to Fear and geopolitical drivers: We believe that the Wealth shock to gold will reverse as China is gradually coming out of lockdowns with growth set to receive a boost from policy support.

In addition, an increasing lack of confidence in a US soft landing should boost Fear demand for gold.

Any transparency on Russian gold purchases should raise the market’s conviction on an upcoming structural geopolitical boost to CB gold demand.

In essence, we believe the bullish gold case was merely delayed rather than derailed. Due to little structural change to our model inputs, we keep our gold price upside but delay the price path.

Finally, we see gold ETF purchases resuming now that the speculative part of the positioning has been cleaned up. The risk to this view would be a continuation of the wealth/liquidity shock until its magnitude matches March 2020 or October 2008. This could lead to a temporary fall in the gold price as market participants cut all positions to increase their dollar liquidity and meet margin calls.

We revise our 3, 6 and 12m targets to $2,100/2,300 and $2,500/toz, from $2,300/2,500 and $2,500/toz.

Finally we circle back to Seth Klarman’s insights:

“If the world turns to hell, the war expands and gets worse, God forbid a nuclear weapon is used, I think people are going to say: ‘How do I know what anything’s worth anymore? I’m going to make sure I have some gold because I don’t want to not have money at a time of desperation.’ It may never come to that, but I think it’s prudent to have a little bit of your portfolio in gold.”
“The market has come to believe in an omniscient Federal Reserve, and it’s no such thing. These guys don’t really know what they’re doing in any deep way. It’s a giant financial experiment, and we’re at the mercy of their experiment that maybe is right now in the process of going wrong, so God help us.”

God help us, indeed!

end

Gold Price Sinks Through $1800 as India Hikes Bullion Import Duty

Friday, 7/01/2022 14:13

GOLD PRICES sank Friday in Asian and London trade, dropping through $1800 per ounce following news of a sharp hike to bullion import duty in No.2 consumer nation India and hitting 5-month lows against a rising US Dollar even as longer-term interest rates fell hard and global stock markets dropped for the 4th session running.

With equities now erasing most of mid-June’s rally from 18-month lows on the MSCI World Index, the yield offered to new buyers of 10-year US Treasury debt fell back below 3.00%.

That was a record low for Washington’s borrowing costs when first reached during the global financial crisis of 2008, and it was a 3.5-year high when recovered this May amid the surge of inflation hitting 1982 levels.

Now lagging inflation by almost 8 percentage points but “attacking” the cost of living with its steepest single rate-hike in 3 decades, the Federal Reserve is “just at the beginning” of a hiking cycle said voting member Loretta Mester this week, backing another 75 basis points rise in the Fed’s short-term interest rate at its July meeting.

Gold prices today fell through $1800 per ounce to reach $1785, the lowest bullion rate since the end of January and almost 14% beneath the near-record high reached in early March after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Chart of gold bullion priced in US Dollars. Source: BullionVault

Shares in major Indian jewellers meantime lost 6% and more for the day after the Finance Ministry in Delhi reversed 2021’s surprise cut to gold import duty – a move aimed at cutting the growth of gold smuggling – and took the levy back up to 12.5%.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also imposed export taxes on crude oil and diesel on Friday, aiming to boost domestic energy supplies amid “extraordinary times” which have seen the Rupee sink to fresh all-time lows on the currency market.

Including GST sales duty, “Overall taxes on gold now rise sharply from 14% to around 18.45%,” according to Somasundaram PR, regional CEO for India at the mining- industry’s World Gold Council.

“Unless this is tactical and temporary, [it] will likely strengthen the grey market, with long term adverse consequences for [India’s] gold market.”

India’s legal gold imports jumped to more than 100 tonnes in May, the highest in a year, helping the country’s trade deficit widen to a new all-time record as global investors also pulled money out of what the IMF’s GDP forecasts will be the fastest-growing major economy in 2022.

“Gold smuggling was falling after the duty reduction and because of Covid-19 curbs on movement of people,” says a Mumbai bullion dealer speaking to Reuters. “But now it could rise again.”

With domestic Indian prices rising today following the import duty hike, gold bullion fell against most other major currencies, hitting 1-month lows in Euro terms at €1715 but holding unchanged for the week in UK Pounds at £1487 as Sterling sank yet again on the FX market.

The Reserve Bank of India has been the world’s heaviest central-bank gold buyer over the last 2 years, adding more than 106 tonnes to its holdings, beating Thailand (90 tonnes), Hungary (63), Brazil (62) and Egypt (45).

The Central Bank of Iraq this week said it has added 34 tonnes to its gold reserves so far this summer, a rise of 35% taking its total to 130 tonnes – inside the top 30 central-bank hoards worldwide.

Across the Gulf of Arabia, the Central Bank of Qatar also grew its gold bullion holdings on the latest data, adding more than 4 tonnes to reach nearly 56 in total.

5.OTHER COMMODITIES

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7096

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7113

HANG SANG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 457.42 OR 1.73%

3. Europe stocks CLOSED MOSTLY RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.88/Euro FALLS TO 1.0446

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.208/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.23/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.301%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.30% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.37%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.53//

3j Gold at $1789.15 silver at: 19.64 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 3 AND 1/4 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 54.68

3m oil into the 107 dollar handle for WTI and 111 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.23DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9601– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0031well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.948 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.149 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.75

Futures, Yields Slide In Recessionary Start To New Quarter

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 11:57 AM

As DB’s Jim Reid puts it “if you want the good news this morning it’s that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it’s that there’s not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. “

Indeed, just when you thoughts stocks couldn’t possibly slide any more after just concluding the worst first half in 52 years…

… and with investor and consumer sentiment at record lows, you’d be shocked to learn that futures and stocks started the new month and quarter by plumbing fresh lows as fears of soaring inflation and tumbling earnings boosted concerns about an imminent recession, and the resulting risk aversion lifted bonds and havens and sent risk sliding. The “Big Short” Michael Burry said we may only be about halfway through the market’s decline…

Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%.
That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there.— Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) June 30, 2022

… while Goldman was also downbeat, seeing global equities selling off further in the near term. As of 730am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pointed to declines of 0.3%, having shaved off as much as a 1% drop earlier…

… while 10-year US Treasury yield slid below 3% to the lowest since early June as markets now price in a record 10bps in rate cuts in Q1 2023 with markets confident the Fed will have to pivot to defeat the coming recession. Every Group-of-10 currency fell against the dollar and the yen, traditional havens, while bitcoin reversed a modest attempt at a breakout that briefly pushed it back over $20K.

In premarket trading, shares of US chip companies fell after Micron Technology issued a downbeat forecast on weaker demand for phones and computers. Bank stocks are also lower in premarket trading, putting them on track for their fifth straight day of losses amid a broader slump in equity markets. Other notable premarket movers:

Kohl’s (KSS US) plunges 15% in US premarket trading after CNBC reported it’s ending sale talks with Vitamin Shoppe owner Franchise Group.
Semiconductor companies are falling on Friday after Micron Technology issued a weak forecast for the current quarter due to lower demand for phones and computers. Micron (MU US) -5.5%, Nvidia -1.3% (NVDA US), Qualcomm (QCOM US) -0.7%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks could be active again on Friday as Bitcoin dip buyers are triggering a rally for the largest digital token. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US), Marathon Digital (MARA US) edge up 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively, in premarket.
XPeng (XPEV US) burning cash in the short-term is unavoidable, Nomura says in a note that downgrades the Chinese EV maker to neutral from buy. Shares down 0.2% premarket.

Risk assets continued to be the target of sellers Friday as recession worries overtake concern about runaway inflation. With Federal Reserve policymakers resolute on getting price growth back to their 2% target, investors are assessing the hit to the economy from harsh rate hikes.

“Inflation is the key focus of central bankers; investors losing money is way down their list of concerns,” Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA IM Core, wrote in a note to clients. “Interest rate and inflation markets are taking the view that what is priced in terms of monetary tightening will be enough to bring inflation down, but in order for that to happen, there also needs to be a cost to growth.”

Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds were rocked by outflows this week, reflecting investor fears about hawkish central bank policy. About $5.8 billion exited global stock funds in the week through June 29, Bank of America said, citing EPFR Global data. Bonds had redemptions of $17 billion. Separately, global companies have pulled more debt sales in the past six months than in all of 2020. More than 70 deals have been postponed or canceled so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Europe, markets reversed sharp opening losses with the Stoxx 600 briefly turning green before sliding 0.5% lower with retail and utility names supporting on the recovery. Bund yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

European airlines rise on Friday, paring some declines from previous sessions, as oil is headed for the third straight weekly drop on concerns that a potential recession will hurt demand. Wizz Air rises as much as +10%, EasyJet +6.2%, British Airways owner IAG +4.4%
Airbus shares rise as much as 4% after BofA analysts led by Benjamin Heelan added the aircraft manufacturer to the bank’s ‘3Q Best Ideas list,’ according to a note.
SBB shares advance as much as 21.5% Friday, its largest intra-day gain since April 2017, after the company was included in Nasdaq Stockholm’s OMXS30 index.
Sodexo shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since April 8, after the French caterer reported 3Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Morgan Stanley says Friday’s update is a “relief.”
Maersk shares rise as much as 3.0% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral and placed it and Kuehne Nagel on their “positive Catalyst Watch” for Q2, citing increased confidence in the longevity of current earnings.
European semiconductor stocks tumble after US memory- chip maker Micron 4Q outlook fell short of analyst expectations and said the industry demand environment has weakened. Chipmaker Infineon falls as much as 5.0%, ASML drops 4.9%
La Francaise des Jeux shares decline as much as 9.0% after Citi cuts the stock to sell from buy, citing concession fee to be paid that is worse than Street expectations.
Craneware declines as much as 12% after an offering of ~1.2m shares by holder Abry Partners VII priced at 1,600p, a 13% discount to last close.
OVH Groupe shares drop as much as 6.5% after the analysts adjusted their estimates amid a softening demand outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a third day, as traders assessed recession risks in the global economy after weak US consumer spending and soft factories data from the region. Investors are also keeping an eye on developments from the Chinese President’s Hong Kong visit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.1%, adding to nearly 2% weekly loss, weighed down by tech and consumer discretionary stocks. Chipmakers including TSMC and Samsung extended their declines, contributing the most to the measure’s loss along with Australian miner BHP and Indian energy giant Reliance. Taiwan’s benchmark was again the region’s notable underperformer as it is on course for a bear market following more than a 20% fall from its January high, dragged down by technology stocks. Equity benchmarks in Japan and South Korea slipped more than 1%. Stocks in mainland China retreated after meandering between gains and losses while Hong Kong was closed for a holiday as its new chief was sworn in by Chinese President Xi Jinping. A further slide in June purchasing managers’ indexes in Asian countries except China and the drop in US consumer spending for the first time this year in May highlighted the fragile foundation of the world economy. Those data dimmed global economic outlook and further dented investor sentiment already weakened by ongoing worries about global central banks’ aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation.

“Overall, weakened US consumer spending will lead to a drop in global demand. It will affect export-dominated markets like South Korea in particular,” said Cui Xuehua, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “Traders are also looking to see if there will be policies benefiting Hong Kong, such as a re-opening of borders and increased trade” as Xi visits Hong Kong. Asian stocks plunged about 18% during the first half of this year, capping the first six months with the worst annual drop since 2008. Asian equities have struggled to rebound from a low in May as global recession worries and aggressive tightening by central banks triggered heavy outflows of funds from emerging markets. Chinese stocks have remained a bright spot last month as Beijing winds down its stringent virus restrictions and investors expected regulatory and monetary support for key sectors.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% for the week, as the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slumped to their lowest levels in two years amid ongoing recession worries that boosted haven assets. After a late sell-off Friday, shares swung to a loss of 0.4% to close at 6,539.90, driven by declines in energy and material stocks, with a group of mining shares hitting the lowest since Nov. 22 following commodity price drops. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.1% to 10,753.16

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by around 0.3% as the greenback traded stronger against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. Australian and New Zealand dollars plunged to new two-year lows. The euro fluctuated around $1.0450 after the latest data showed that euro-area consumer prices rose 8.6% from a year earlier in June — up from 8.1% in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg saw a gain of 8.5%. The yen rose and the nation’s bonds were steady to higher. One-week options in dollar-yen are once again overpriced as short-term risks make a strong case for long-gamma exposure. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan report of confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers fell to 9 in June from 14 three months ago, the biggest drop since the peak of the pandemic.

In rates, the German curve bear-steepened, with long-end yields ~7bps cheaper after a manufacturing PMIs show notable softness in new orders. Cash Treasuries extended Thursday’s bull steepening move, with front-end and belly dropping over 10bp from prior day’s close while richer by ~4bps at the short end. Ten-year yields fell further to below 3%, breaching the 50-day moving average, while eurodollar strip bull flattens as recession risk and Fed rate cuts continue to be priced in for next year. 10-year yields dropped to as low as 2.937%, the lowest since June 6, before edging back above 2.95% in early US session, outperforming bunds by 5.5bps. The belly and front-end outperformance causing a steepening of 5s30s curve by 6bp on the day and 2s10s by 3bps; 5s30s peaks through 20bp and onto widest levels in a month. Two-year yield fell 10bp to 2.85%. The Eurodollar strip continues to bull flatten as rate hike premium is eased out of next year; Dec22/Dec23 spread drops to -63.5bp and fresh cycle lows. German government benchmark yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index wavered between losses and gains. Gilts are relatively quiet. Most peripheral spreads are modestly wider to core.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1.9% higher to trade near $107.73. Brent rises 2% near $111.23. Most base metals are in the red. LME copper briefly drops below $8,000 a ton for the first time since February 2021. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $1,795/oz.

Looking to the day ahead, data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,774.25
MXAP down 1.0% to 156.37
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 519.11
Nikkei down 1.7% to 25,935.62
Topix down 1.4% to 1,845.04
Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,859.79
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,387.64
Sensex down 0.6% to 52,688.97
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,539.91
Kospi down 1.2% to 2,305.42
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 407.16
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.39%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0459
Brent Futures up 0.8% to $109.95/bbl
Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,794.17
US Dollar Index up 0.26% to 104.95

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

The Bank of Japan’s decision to pass up an opportunity to ramp up its policy defenses points to a fear of triggering a further weakening of the embattled yen
Japan’s state pension fund, the world’s largest, posted its first quarterly loss in two years as declines in global stock and bond markets during the three months through March weighed down the value of its assets
After years of subdued price swings caused by central bank intervention, a key gauge of volatility in the 1 quadrillion yen ($7.4 trillion) government bond market has surged in recent weeks to the highest level since 2008. That’s boosting demand for JGB traders, with Nomura Holdings Inc. noting signs of intensifying competition for talent
Copper sank below $8,000 a ton, hitting its lowest since early 2021, as deepening fears about a global economic slowdown drive a rout in industrial metals markets
Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Hong Kong to shore up its economy after an era of “chaos,” in a landmark visit that offered few clear answers for how to balance Beijing’s demands for limiting perceived foreign threats with its desire to remain an international financial hub

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks began the new trading month mostly in the red as the region digested a slew of data releases and amid headwinds from the US where Consumer Spending data disappointed and Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow model alluded to a recession. ASX 200 was just about kept afloat by resilience in nearly all industries aside from the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 26,000 level after the latest Tankan survey mostly disappointed. Shanghai Comp. traded indecisively despite the stronger than expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which rose to its highest since May 2021 as sentiment in the mainland was constrained by falling commodity prices, as well as the absence of Hong Kong participants and Stock Connect flows.

Top Asian News

Chinese President Xi said “one country, two systems” has been successful for Hong Kong over the past 25 years and said Hong Kong is a window and a bridge connecting the mainland to the world, while he added that Hong Kong has to defend against interference and focus on development, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
Hong Kong’s new Chief Executive Lee was sworn in and stated the National Security Law brought stability after chaos, while he added the government will strive to control and manage COVID-19 through scientific methods, according to Reuters.
UK PM Johnson said China has been failing to comply with its commitments on Hong Kong and the UK intends to do all it can to hold China to account, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 50bln net daily drain, according to Reuters.
World’s Top Pension GPIF Posts Quarterly Loss on Stock Rout
Three Arrows Crypto Fund CEO Wants to Sell Singapore Mansion
Kishida Says LNG Supply From Sakhalin Won’t Immediately Stop
Japan Mulls LNG From Spot Market to Replace Russian Supply: METI

European bourses are back in the red after briefly recovering from opening losses. Sectors are mixed with no clear theme – Tech is the laggard and Utilities the outperformer. Chip stocks are after sources said TSMC has seen its major clients adjust downward their chip orders for the rest of 2022, whilst Micron’s guidance was underwhelming. Stateside, US equity futures remain in negative territory but off worst levels as the contracts coat-tail on some of Europe’s upside.

Top European News

French government spokesperson said a possible cabinet reshuffle could take place Monday or Tuesday, according to Reuters.
Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record in Boost for Big-Hike Calls
Food Inflation Gets a Break as Wheat, Corn and Soy Oil Tumble
UK House Sales Slow as ‘Intense’ Market Starts to Cool

Dollar regroups after late month end fade amidst broad gains ahead of US manufacturing ISM and construction spending – DXY retests 105.000+ levels from 104.640 low yesterday.
Yen bucks trend, but off recovery peaks as yields firm up and risk aversion wanes – Usd/Jpy around 135.500 vs 134.74 overnight base.
Aussie underperforms and hits fresh 2022 trough sub-6800 and Kiwi under 0.6200 after decline in ANZ consumer sentiment.
Pound undermined by downward revision to UK manufacturing PMI with Cable below 1.2100 and prone to test of Fib support if 1.2050 breached.
Euro back on 1.0400 handle and propped by better than forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and stronger than expected inflation metrics.
Rand extends declines alongside Gold as SA power and pay issues rumble on – Usd/Zar above 16.3400, spot bullion below Usd 1800/oz.

Fixed Income

Debt futures rack up more safe haven gains before recovery in risk sentiment and sharp reversal.
Bunds recoil from 149.46 to 148.24, Gilts retreat to 113.79 from 114.52 and 10 year T-note pulls back from 118-29+ to 118-06 as benchmark yield retests 3% briefly.
Bonds subsequently bounce off lows awaiting US manufacturing ISM and construction spending ahead of long Independence Day holiday weekend.

Commodities

WTI and Brent front-month futures retrace some of yesterday’s losses with upside also spurred the recovery across the stock markets
Libya’s NOC announced a force majeure over Es Sider, Ras Lanuf Ports and the El Feel oilfield, while it noted that oil production decreased as daily exports ranged between 365-408k BPD which is a decline of 865k BPD, according to Reuters.
Spot gold is under pressure after the yellow metal breached USD 1,800/oz to the downside – with the next level to the downside at USD 1,786/oz, the May 16th low.
Base metals are softer across the board as recession woes grapple with the risk-correlated market. LME 3M copper briefly fell beneath the USD 8,000/t for the first time since January.
India raised the basic import tax on gold to 12.5% from 7.5%, according to BQ Prime citing a Gazette notification.

US Event Calendar

09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 52.4, prior 52.4
10:00: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
10:00: June ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 56.1

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you want the good news this morning it’s that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it’s that there’s not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. Having said that it’s eminently possible that whatever age you are reading this you might ALL have now witnessed the worst first half of a year in your career either looking back or forward. So if you’ve survived that it might not all be bad news. Younger readers can come back to me after the awful H1 2055 and tell me I’m wrong.

Henry will put out some more stats in our usual month-end performance review shortly, which reads like a bit of a horror story, but for what it’s worth the S&P 500 has now seen its worst H1 total return performance in 60 years, and also in total return terms it’s fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the GFC. Meanwhile 10yr Treasuries look set (with a final calculation imminent) to have recorded their worst H1 since 1788, just before George Washington became President.

As I mentioned in a previous chart of the day, bad H1’s for equities have tended to be followed by much better H2’s. But with increasing warnings that a recession is round the corner, it isn’t so obvious where things are headed this time round. Indeed, equities saw another significant selloff yesterday as those fears were magnified yet again by another weaker than expected round of data which genuinely puts the US at risk of a technical recession in H1 already. That included the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week through June 25, which although coming in inline at 231k (vs. 230k expected), did send the smoother 4-week moving average up to its highest level so far this year. Our preferred measure, namely containing claims, edged up but is not yet signalling a recession though.

Personal spending also came in at just +0.2% in May (vs. +0.4% expected), and the prior month was revised down three-tenths as well, whilst real personal spending (-0.4%) saw its first monthly decline of the year as well. That translated to a 0.3% MoM Core PCE reading, below expectations of 0.4%, while the YoY reading was 6.3%. The prospect of the Fed being forced into hikes to fight stubborn inflation while growth is rolling over appears to be something the markets will have to wrestle with sooner rather than later. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s 2Q GDP nowcast estimate was revised down from 0.3% to -1.0% which if proved correct will signal a technical recession as a minimum. Today’s ISM will be a big sentiment driver on this front.

Against the weak growth backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.88%) continued its run of having declined every day this week, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.50%) saw even sharper losses. Utilities (+1.10%) were the clear outperformer, as investors rotate into defensive sectors. In turn, the NASDAQ underperformed, closing down -1.33%, also finishing in the red every day this week to date. The S&P 500 lost -20.58% in the first half of the year, its worst first half performance since 1970. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has fared even worse, declining -22.44% this quarter alone and -29.51% in the first half of the year, its worst first half in the data available in Bloomberg.

But in some ways the fear was more evident among sovereign bonds, which rallied significantly as investors continued to seek out safe havens and grew more doubtful about whether central banks would be able to persist in taking policy into aggressive territory. Indeed, the rate priced by Fed funds futures for the December 2022 meeting came down -6.5bps to 3.39%, and the rate priced by December 2023 came down an even larger -13.6bps to 2.96%. Those shifting expectations meant that yields on 10yr Treasuries fell back beneath 3% in the session for the first time in nearly 3 weeks, ultimately settling -7.6bps lower on the day at 3.01%. The decline in 10yr yields was split between breakevens and real yields, as both had a volatile session to end the quarter. Breakevens fell -4.7bps to 2.35%, their lowest levels since September. Other recessionary indicators were flashing warning signs of their own, with the near-term Fed spread down another -14.9bps to 142bps, meanwhile the 2s10s curve managed to eek out a marginal steepening, but is still flirting with inversion, closing at just 5.1bps. This morning, 10yr UST yields (-5.92 bps) are lower again, moving back below 3% to 2.95% with the 2s10 curve flattening -1bps at 4.13% as we type.

We saw much the same pattern in Europe yesterday, albeit with even larger moves lower in yields that sent those on 10yr bunds (-18.3bps), OATs (-15.2bps) and BTPs (-13.3bps) sharply lower. As in the US, European sovereign yield declines were driven by falling inflation compensation, with the 10yr German breakeven coming down by -12.3bps to 2.03%, which is its lowest closing level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. That was echoed in a declining oil price with Brent crude down -1.60% yesterday at $109.52/bbl, meaning that oil prices saw a monthly decline in June for the first time since November 2021, back when the Omicron variant first emerged and travel restrictions started going back up again.

Speaking of energy prices, there were a few interesting headlines on that front yesterday, including a comment from President Biden that he is seeking more production from the Gulf states. Biden is set to travel to the Middle East from July 13-16, so that’s an important event on the geopolitical calendar, and ahead of that, we also saw the OPEC+ group move to ratify yesterday a further supply hike of +648k barrels per day in August. In Europe however there was more bad news on the energy side, with natural gas futures up a further +3.53% to a fresh three-month high of €144.51 per megawatt-hour. My colleague George Saravelos put out a fascinating blog yesterday (link here) that highlighted how worried he’s becoming on the gas supply situation, with year-ahead natural gas prices making fresh record highs and electricity prices skyrocketing. A key event as part of that will be the shutdown of the Nordstream pipeline from July 11-21 for regular annual maintenance, and press reports are suggesting that authorities are attempting to find a solution on sanctions restrictions to move gas turbine components back to Russia. So while we all spend most of our time thinking about the Fed and recessions, what happens to Russian gas over H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Mark July 22nd in your dairies to see whether the gas supply starts getting back to normal or not.

Asian equity markets are reversing early morning gains and are mostly down again. The Kospi (-1.04%) is the largest underperformer across the region followed by the Nikkei (-0.88%). Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.30%) and CSI (-0.20%) are down but are trimming losses, as the nation’s private factory activity rose at the fastest pace in 13 months in June (more on this below). Markets in Hong Kong are closed for a holiday marking the 25th anniversary of Chinese rule. Bucking the regional trend is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 which is trading +0.26% higher at the time of writing. Outside of Asia, stock futures are once again sliding with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.84%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.86%) indicating a disappointing start in the US later today.

Early morning data showed that China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI advanced to 51.7 in June, returning to expansion territory for the first time in four months against a previous reading of 48.1 and well above analyst expectations for an uptick to 50.1. The recovery as suggested in the survey was propelled by a strong rebound in output, as the easing Covid restrictions sent factories racing to meet recovering demand.

Over in Japan, Tokyo’s June CPI rose +2.3% y/y (v/s +2.5% expected) and against a +2.4% increase in the prior month. Core CPI advanced +2.1% in June from a year earlier, notching the fastest pace of increase in seven years in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure in the world’s third largest economy. Separately, the unemployment rate in Japan surprisingly edged up to +2.6% in May from +2.5% in April. Meanwhile, sentiment at Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated in the April-to-June period as the headline index worsened to a level of +9, a decline from the previous quarter’s reading of 14.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, French CPI came in at +6.5% as expected on the EU-harmonised measure in June, although German unemployment unexpectedly rose +133k in June (vs -5k expected) as Ukrainian refugees are now being included in those looking for work. Looking back to May however, the Euro Area unemployment rate hit its lowest level since the formation of the single currency at 6.6% (vs. 6.8% expected). Finally in the US, the MNI Chicago PMI came in at 56.0 (vs. 58.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos.

FRIDAY /THURSDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/RUSSIA/JAPAN

Not good! Chinese and Russian navies circle Japan in a show of force

(zerohedge)

Chinese And Russian Navies Circle Japan In “Show Of Force”

THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 – 10:50 PM

In yet another example of the increasingly close alliance between Russia and China, the Chinese Navy and Russia’s Pacific Fleet have been engaging in war game operations, seemingly in tandem around Japan, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry.

Reports of coordinated military exercises have not been officially acknowledged by Russia or China, though Japan continues to post regular updates on ship movements. The naval exercises were apparently focused around the islands of Miyako and Okinawa, which hold 50,000 US forces, as well as a 70-mile wide corridor between the island of Yonaguni and Taiwan.

While not unheard of, military cooperation in the Pacific between Russia and China has grown in frequency, with naval exercises increasing over the past month. While Japan calls these movements a “show of force,” they may very well be practice for a conflict planned in the near future.

After the recent BRICS summit in Beijing and the reaffirmation of China’s economic support of Russia during its war with Ukraine and NATO sanctions, it only makes sense that the economic relationship would evolve into at least a loose military agreement. The latest decision on the induction of Sweden and Finland into NATO as well as naval escalation in the South Pacific are only going to drive Eastern interests closer together over time.

China is nursing a compulsive obsession when it comes to absorbing Taiwan into the CCP, and with the West overly focused on Russia and Ukraine, they may act soon. If an invasion of Taiwan is planned it would have to take place sometime in September/October when weather conditions in the region are favorable to naval operations. Leaked reports from Russian intel in March seem to indicate that a fall invasion of Taiwan was indeed in the works. Some believe that the Russian war with Ukraine will force China to scuttle such plans, but there is also a chance that Ukraine will provide excellent cover for an action against Taiwan; forcing western governments to split their efforts and focus on two fronts instead of one.

The bigger question is: Will Russia and China form an official military alliance? There is no debate now over their trade alliance, but the notion of military cooperation between the two countries will lead many people to scoff. Keep in mind, however, that there were numerous skeptics that argued only a week ago that the Turkish government under Erdogen would “never” agree to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and yet that is exactly what they did.

The geopolitical landscape is changing fast and the old rules no longer seem to apply.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

HOLLAND/GERMANY

Dutch farmers extremely angry over the EU’s stupid new “green Nitrogen rule” as they block the border between Holland and Germany

(zerohedge)

Dutch Farmers Livid Over EU’s ‘Green’ Nitrogen Rule Block Border Between Holland And Germany

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Thousands of tractor-driving Dutch protesters came out this week to continue demonstrations against the government’s radical plan to cut nitrogen emissions by 30% – 70% as part of their ‘green’ agenda.

Farmers from the world’s 5th largest exporter of food are demanding that the Hague immediately reverse course, and have blocked the border between Holland and Germany over the rule which would lead to the closure of dozens of farms and cattle ranches.

Very angry Dutch farmers block border between Holland and Germany. Harsh protests in many Dutch cities after politicians’ decision to closes dozens of farms and cattle ranches to reduce nitrogen by 30% – 70% to comply with EU regulations on nitrogen pollution. pic.twitter.com/uKYXj0gvD8— RadioGenova (@RadioGenova) June 30, 2022

On Wednesday, dozens of tractors blocked a highway close to the German border, according to traffic authorities.

Even larger protests are scheduled for July 4, with organizers taking to Telegram to call people to action against rules they say will “flatten” the country’s agriculture industry.

According to the Epoch Times, the message calls on concerned farmers and citizens to organize their own regional actions with the goal of closing all “distribution centers for food supplies and all major polluters” until “the government changes its plans.”

One viral call for a July 4 protest came from a large truckers’ Telegram group, suggesting that some truckers in the Netherlands may find themselves in solidarity with the nation’s agriculturalists.

The farmers, who plan to protest at many of the nation’s airports, specifically mentioned Schiphol and Eindhoven. NLTimes.nl has reported that spokespersons for both airports say they are monitoring the situation but have little information at present.

Holland closes dozens of farms and cattle ranches to reduce nitrogen by 30%. Angry and hungry farmers block the nation everywhere. pic.twitter.com/VNSodhGanB— RadioGenova (@RadioGenova) June 28, 2022

In 2021, the Netherlands’ coalition government proposed slashing livestock numbers in the country by 30 percent to meet nitrogen emissions targets.

The country has already implemented stringent restrictions on new construction with the aim of curbing nitrogen emissions.

Rabobank has argued that those new hurdles have slowed down homebuilding in the Netherlands, intensifying a housing shortage in the densely populated coastal nation.

On June 10, the government issued a national and area-specific plan for curbing nitrogen emissions. Those emissions are heavily driven by ammonia from livestock manure.

Some parts of the country would have to slash those emissions by 70 or even 95 percent.

It openly acknowledged that “there is not a future for all [Dutch] farmers within [this] approach,” as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service.

“The Minister of Nature and Nitrogen Policy expects about a third of the 50,000 Dutch farms to ‘disappear’ by 2030,” the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade reported in a June 23 Market Insight Report.

The Netherlands is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of food, exceeded only by the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China, according to World Bank statistics.

The Dutch government offers a multibillion-dollar buyout arrangement for farmers.

Christianne van der Wal, minister of nature and nitrogen policy, has left open the possibility that the government will expropriate land from farmers who do not comply, as reported by NOS Nieuws.

The proposals and resultant protests come amid worldwide fertilizer and food shortages.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on June 24 that “there is a real risk that multiple famines will be declared in 2022,” adding that “2023 could be even worse.”

On a recent episode of “Facts Matter” on EpochTV, American farmer John Boyd, Jr. warned of potential food shortages as a result of steeply rising input costs.

He said the expenses of running his own operation have tripled, driven in large part by significantly increased fertilizer costs.

In Sri Lanka, a ban on chemical fertilizers contributed to an economic crisis that has destabilized the government.

The country has recently announced a temporary ban on fuel sales to private vehicles, effective June 27 through July 10.

The latest round of demonstrations by Dutch farmers comes after a wave of similar protests in 2019 after lawmaker Tjeerd de Groot called for livestock numbers in the Netherlands to be cut by 50 percent.

Demonstrators have burned hay bales alongside highways, blocked roads with tractors, and spread manure to make their anger known.

In recent days, protesters have targeted the homes of Dutch government officials, including Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Nitrogen Minister van der Wal.

Footage circulating on social media purports to show protesters spraying manure on Dutch law enforcement.

Rutte criticized protesters, saying, “You can demonstrate, but in a civilized way,” as reported by the Associated Press.

AP also reports that Dutch police say they arrested 10 people on June 28 in connection with the protests.

end

EUROPE//RUSSIA

A must read: Tom Luongo talks about the Russian-Ukrainian war and how the West have already lost

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: The G-7 Squawks But They’ve Already Lost The War Against Russia

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 06:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

So, the G-7 leaders are in agreement, more war with Russia. Without actually saying exactly that, that was the main takeaway from he meeting of the most feckless leaders in the world.

They also pledged $600 billion they don’t have to fund global infrastructure projects to ‘combat China’s Belt and Road Initiative.’ One wonders where all this money and, in the case of Europe, energy is going to come from to fund all of this.

But the question I’ve had from the beginning of this obvious war of attrition the West wants to impose on Russia is the following: Do we have the stamina, in terms of real production capacity, to cash these checks our leaders are writing?

A major report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), one of the oldest military think tanks in the UK emphatically said not in anyone’s wildest dreams. Alex Mercouris of The Duran did an amazing job of breaking down what RUSI thought about NATO’s ability to wage war vs. Russia’s current military tempo, days before this idea caught fire.

In short, the gulf between NATO’s annual munition production and weekly consumption by the UAF is staggeringly vast.

I told you at the outset of this war that Russia was absolutely engaged in a war of attrition against the West, hoping NATO would take the bait of a ground war in Ukraine. I didn’t have numbers to back this up, only the inference because of what I understood about Putin and his previous maneuvers against the West.

What’s obvious to me is the neocons and neoliberals controlling the West think they can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Putin, but what if Putin thinks he can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for them?

Russia is not capable of conquering Europe. But he doesn’t need to to defeat them. He just needs to create a version of this map:

I knew that Putin wouldn’t commit Russia to this conflict if it couldn’t sustain fighting it. I also knew that the West would LIE OUTRAGEOUSLY about the level of corruption within the Russian society to play on the biases of marginally-informed American armchair generals.

Is the Russian system perfect? No. Is there corruption? Yes. But it’s complete nonsense to think it wouldn’t be uncovered and stripped out of all branches of the Russian military/industrial complex during the initial military gambit. The shifts made by Russia strategically and in terms of personnel have set it up for the long haul, fighting a type of war they are very good at and which the US and NATO left the UAF mostly defenseless against.

Now, with sanctions further hollowing out the US’s and Europe’s economies and the “leadership” of the buffoons that just met in Germany, Russia is in the driver’s seat to grind out a victory in Ukraine and leave the West depleted of weapons if the current situation goes on without a course correction.

The point made by RUSI is that it may not be possible to course correct in time (or ever) in the time frame needed to affect the outcome in Ukraine, absent an unthinkable escalation.

The exhaustion we thought we would put to Russia, is the ultimate form of ‘sanctions boomerang’ on the West. To listen to RUSI tell the tale, we’re the ones without the capacity to fight if the conflict widens.

And yet, to listen to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken or National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, you would think Russia is still on the verge of collapse.

Now the G-7 think they have the power to set a global price cap on crude oil. I’ve told you time and again that Davos really does believe they have some kind of monopsony power over Russia’s exports. They still believe that their thirst for energy, food, industrial metals, fertilizer, etc. gives them power over Putin.

And Putin is the moderate within Russian power circles. There are a hundred Banes waiting in the wings happy to snap the necks of the John Daggetts he no longer needs to sell oil and gas to.

I’ve watched Putin for years. I’ve seen him put pressure on his central bank and the bankers to reform the financial sector. I’ve seen him publicly dress down and reform major industrial oligarchs in metals production. Six plus years of military operations in Syria have given him a lot of data on how to execute a long-term strategy and find the break points of his logistics and operations.

And I’m sure that this war in Ukraine is as much another data gathering exercise for the capabilities of the West as much as it is a stress test on his own internal production systems.

Russia is now 4 months into this review. Lots of people have been fired, jailed, etc. The non-hackers are being weeded out. Operations are leaning out.

Now let’s look at the West.

The US under Biden is now amping up military spending, presumably to increase ammunition production levels. But it may not be. As Alex rightly points out, echoing points that Dexter White has discussed in the Gold Goats ‘n Guns newsletter, keiretsu or just-in-time manufacturing is how we operate here in the West. That system is under massive stress thanks to the supply chain breakdown created by Davos over COVID-19.

While sanctions may have limited Russia’s ability to procure or maintain a large arsenal of its highest technology tanks and/or airplanes, again as Dexter has pointed out, it may not be relevant here because this isn’t a war of bleeding edge technology.

It’s a WWI style artillery war, which we are not prepared to fight. Scott Ritter pointed out to me when we met at the recent Ron Paul Institute conference that NATO no longer trains in maneuver warfare. While Russia’s combined forces training is limited, as evidenced in its attack on Kiev in February, the US’s major advantage has been severely curtailed by lack of training and readiness over the past couple of decades.

So, what we have, overall, is a military picture with weak supply chains, limited ability to ramp production, and a military that hasn’t trained for sustained warfare on a mass scale.

This means that Biden’s expansion of the DoD’s budget to $813 billion this year may not even be what we think it means. Instead of being a buildup to fight a wider war, this may seriously be just the last dip at the trough before the whole system comes crashing down.

Remember, that Davos wants the US destroyed. It has assiduously hollowed out vital US manufacturing capability while simultaneously putting it in a fragile fiscal position with a divided and angry population.

The stage is set for internal conflict of a type and kind that we haven’t seen in over 150 years. And we’re supposed to fight a war with Russia, a nuclear and conventional military powerhouse?

This is leaving aside the reality that if NATO declares open war on Russia that Blinkered Blinken and the anti-Diplomats have pushed China into being paranoid about our intentions over Taiwan.

The real stress test is happening now. Ukraine is getting crushed under the weight of Russia’s ability to sustain an inhuman level of artillery bombardment. The RUSI article only touches on the potential for Russia to continue its production of the needed munitions, but one gets the idea that these things are cheap and fully domestically sourced.

This has forced into the open the massive shortfall of industrial capacity in the West as well as fracturing the political leadership as to what they should ultimately do here.

Half of them want to continue the war in perpetuity. The other half want a ceasefire. None of them would admit this at the G-7 meeting out of a need to not look weak or admit that the Russians have exposed them.

It takes a staggering amount of energy to fight a sustained war. The West is at the mercy of Russia to get that energy.

The next phase of this war is now the complete divorce of Europe from the Russian energy complex at prices that can’t keep Europe from sinking into depression if not outright depravity.

To achieve this, these out-of-touch narcissists think they can set a limit on what they will pay for a barrel of oil? I thought I’d heard it all in this life, but this is almost as delusional as the average Libs of TikTok video post Roe v. Wade’s demise.

The financial war of attrition against the West I’ve discussed at length for months is the reality of the day. Ultimately without energy or the money to procure or produce it, there is no real conventional war. Industrial warfare having returned, as is the premise of the RUSI article, has already determined the outcome in Ukraine.

This is just part of the reason why Henry Kissinger urged at this year’s Davos meeting to open up talks and begin the negotiations. It seems at this point his admonishments have fallen on deaf ears. Given the average age of the idiots making these decisions, this is, of course, not surprising.

Davos has set the US up for complete humiliation in Ukraine, sacrificed thousands of Ukrainians, bankrupted millions of Europeans and corrupted hundred of millions sustaining a vast bureaucracy incapable of responding to the growing needs of a failing system.

The sad part is this: They think they are #winning, because so much of this is going according to plan. They are missing the big parts about destroying the US too quickly in the process, if you want it to fight your war to cover your bankruptcy.

Russia and China will cut Europe off from global trade if Europe defaults on its debt, which ECB President Christine Lagarde just told the world she is ready to do. The Fed’s hawkishness is already destroying the Eurodollar markets, the source of Davos’ power.

The vestiges of US Federalism still function at a high enough level to thwart all of their plans. c.f. the SCOTUS decisions last week and Ron DeSantis’ track record as Florida Governor.

Speaking of DeSantis, he’s rapidly emerging as the front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2024.

So, in conclusion this is what I see next:

Russia will not stop with their victory in Donbass
They will take Nikolaev, Kharkov and Odessa (Note Russian spelling, screw the BBC!).
Russia will not take the bait over Kaliningrad, but will cut off all gas to Germany.
The German government will fall, but it won’t matter b/c the Greens, who set policy, control the Bundesrat.
Russia will continue to not give Davos the excuse to start WWIII, even with Finland and Sweden entering the alliance.
They will keep upping the stakes while further exposing the emptiness of their threats.
The Biden Admin. will keep trying to start a war over Taiwan
Eventually China will oblige them, even though they don’t want to.
Bulgaria’s collapse is just the start of the end of the EU in Eastern Europe.
NATO will either collapse or nukes will fly…. I’m still betting on the former.
Erdogan caving over NATO expansion means Putin will oppose him in Syria.
The Fed will continue raising rates while the ECB hangs on for dear life.

In desperation I expect a false flag provocation to force the Russians into a move or simply justify the Davos pulling us into their next war, i.e. another virus or chemical weapons attack this time blamed on Putin.

The goal of this project is an independent Europe, a broken US and vassalage for Asia.

They will achieve, at best, one of those three things. An independent, but broken Europe under the vassalage of Russia and China, the the US retreats and licks its wounds. That’s the future I see now, if the nukes don’t fly.

END

Europe

A very important commentary from zero hedge as it talks about fresh big negative supply shocks

(zerohedge)

“What’s Unfolding In Europe In Recent Days Is A Fresh Big Negative Supply Shock”

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 08:10 AM

It is probably not a coincidence that around the time the stock of German energy giant and largest utility gas consumer, Uniper was plunging amid speculation it would have to be bailed out due to soaring nat gas prices…

… Deutsche Bank’s chief FX strategist George Saravelos penned a note in which he said that he was becoming increasingly concerned about the unfolding energy situation in Germany.

Here’s why: two weeks ago, Russia reduced Nordstream gas flows by 60% on the back of an alleged disruption over Siemens part supplies (chart 1). While the immediate availability of gas in Germany is not an issue, the energy market is starting to price a risk of a complete disruption to gas supplies for winter, and year-ahead natural gas prices are making fresh record highs (chart 2).

Most concerning however, is the skyrocketing price of electricity. Prices for 2023 delivery have also soared to all-time highs and have now tripled from the start of the year (chart 3). French and Italian electricity prices are similarly soaring. Which brings us tot he abovementioned collapse in the share price of Germany’s largest utility gas consumer, which just dropped to record lows amid speculation of an imminent bailout (chart 4).

As the DB strategist admits, his underlying assumption this year was that gas supplies to Europe would continue: even though the Nordstream pipeline is set to shut for ten days during July 11-21 for regular maintenance, press reports suggest that authorities are attempting to find a solution on sanctions restrictions to move gas turbine components back to Russia. Yet the German government is stating that disruptions are politically motivated and there are risks supply may be completely shut off.

So, as Saravelos warns, if the gas shutoff is not resolved in coming weeks this would lead to a broadening out of energy disruption with material upfront effects on economic growth, and of course much higher inflation, or as he puts it, “beyond the market’s worries about slower global growth in recent months, what is unfolding in Europe in recent days is a fresh big negative supply shock.”

If so, it would clearly make the ECB’s job more difficult and their reaction function ambivalent. But as far as the EUR/USD exchange rate goes, it would provide clear downside as not only would the energy import bill rise due to even higher prices, but it would raise the risk of an imminent German recession on the back of energy rationing. So while DB’s EUR/USD forecasts imply a range-bound euro over the summer months, the bank’s chjef FX strategist is worried that the energy situation is providing clear downside risks.

As for July 22, or a Friday three weeks from today, fellow DB strategist Jim Reid asks whether this could be the most important day of the year: “while we all spend most of our market time thinking about the Fed and a recession, I suspect what happens to Russian gas in H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Of course by July 22nd parts may have be found and the supply might start to normalise. Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen here is guessing but as minimum it should be a huge focal point for everyone in markets.”

end

Rationing has already started in Europe as the globe plunges!!

(Snyder/Economic Collapse blog)

Rationing Has Already Started In Europe As The Entire Globe Plunges Into A Horrific Economic Nightmare

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If countries in Europe are already beginning to ration certain things due to “supply problems”, how long will it be before it starts happening in the United States?

Up until the past couple of years, many of us in the western world always considered shortages to be something that only “unsophisticated” poor countries on the other side of the planet had to deal with. But the last couple of years have shown us that painful shortages can happen to wealthy countries in the western world too. At first we were told that they were “just temporary”, but the months went by and we just kept having more shortages. In fact, in 2022 “supply problems” have become so serious that many supermarkets in Europe have been forced to strictly ration essential items at various times. For example, it was being reported that due to the war in Ukraine flour, sunflower oil and sugar were all being rationed by stores in Greece…

After limiting the sale of some flours and sunflower oil online, Greek supermarkets are turning to rationing the sale of sugar as well, now including in their stores, over supply problems.
The AB Vassilopoulos is setting a maximum limit on the purchase of all brands of corn and sunflower oil and of flour per customer while Mymarket put a ceiling on sunflower oil purchases and Sklavenitis has added sugar to the rationed sales of corn oil through its online store, with a maximum of four packs, the products in high demand from restaurants, some of which said they have to stop selling french fries and other fried foods.

Over the past few months we have seen similar measures implemented in other major European nations as well. For example, the war in Ukraine prompted some pretty severe rationing in Spain…

Sporadic shortages of products like eggs, milk, and other dairy products also hit Spain since the war in Ukraine began. And major supermarkets including Mercadona and Makro began rationing sunflower oil earlier this month.
Now, stores will temporarily be allowed to limit “the number of goods that can be bought by a client,” according to information in the Official State Gazette published on Wednesday.

Looking forward, natural gas rationing is the next big thing that many people in Europe are talking about. The flow of Russian natural gas into Europe has been cut back, and it appears that this may soon cause widespread rationing in Italy…

Italy may start rationing natural-gas consumption to certain industrial giants, after Russia’s Gazprom halved supplies on Friday.
On the weekend, the newspaper Corriere della Sera reported that the Italian government and energy industry would meet Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the crisis, with the likely outcome being the introduction of a state of alert under the country’s gas emergency protocol.

And CNN is reporting that Germany is “one step closer to rationing supplies” now that Russia has decided to reduce the flow of natural gas going to that country…

Europe’s biggest economy is now officially running short of natural gas and is escalating a crisis plan to preserve supplies as Russia turns off the taps.
Germany on Thursday activated the second phase of its three-stage gas emergency program, taking it one step closer to rationing supplies to industry — a step that would deliver a huge blow to the manufacturing heart of its economy.

Of course there are other parts of the globe that are dealing with problems that are far, far more serious than what Europe is facing right now.

As I discussed in an article that I posted earlier this week, significant numbers of people are starting to literally drop dead from starvation in portions of eastern Africa. Global food supplies just keep getting tighter, and the head of the UN is openly telling us that the world is heading into an “unprecedented global hunger crisis”.

So if you have plenty of food to eat tonight, you should be thankful.

Here in the United States, economic conditions are deteriorating fairly rapidly, and most Americans are completely and totally unprepared for any sort of a major economic downturn. Earlier today, I came across yet another survey that shows that about 60 percent of all Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck…

“We find that consumers in all income brackets — including those who make more than $100,000 annually — are living paycheck to paycheck. PYMNTS’ research finds that 61% of U.S. consumers were living paycheck to paycheck in April 2022, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 52% in April 2021, meaning that approximately three in five U.S. consumers devote nearly all of their salaries to expenses with little to nothing left over at the end of the month.”

So what is going to happen when those people start losing their jobs in large numbers?

Already, we have seen the number of tech layoffs greatly accelerate over the last couple of months.

Sadly, the layoffs will get much worse in the months ahead.

And as inflation continues to systematically eat away at our standard of living, Americans are turning to credit cards at a record pace…

As Americans grapple with the highest inflation in 40 years, the number of new credit cards have surged as more Americans rely on them to keep up with high prices. According to a recent report from the Federal Reserve, revolving credit (credit cards and lines of credit) increased by 19.6% from the previous year to $1.103 trillion.

Going into credit card debt is not a solution.

At best, it can buy you a little bit of time.

And it is especially a bad idea to go into credit card debt as we plunge into a recession.

At this point, almost everyone realizes that things are going to get bad. According to one recent poll, a whopping 85 percent of all Americans believe that the U.S. is “headed in the wrong direction”…

The national dissatisfaction is bipartisan. Most Americans, 85%, say the country is headed in the wrong direction. A majority of Republicans have been unhappy with the direction of the country since Biden’s election. Democrats had been positive about how things were going, but now 78% say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

I was astounded to see that 78 percent of Democrats believe that the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction with a Democrat in the White House.

I have never seen a number like that ever before.

But this is just another indication that the hour is late and that things are about to start getting really crazy out there.

For the moment, life is still at least somewhat normal in the western world.

Sadly, it won’t stay that way for long, and so I would recommend using your time wisely.

* * *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/SERGEY GLAZYEV

Worth reading and understanding

Inbox

NATO led by Brits and Russia are both preparing for this war. And it is closer than 2024 if the truth be known. Sadly, this is foolish as there can be no winners in such madness. The US will be on the sidelines as contrary to illusionary madness of the imposter Chief and many minions they do not control Nuclear and beyond as this group has not transferred control. It may have something to do with growling evidence of fraud and more in the last election and beyond coming to light. There law cases on some senatorial seats that may well be overturned requiring a new vote on such things as spending. Right now this is the saving grace for America and best hope for a enlightened future. Should this change it will not end well for anyone.

RUSSTRAT Institute presents a transcript of the speech of Sergey Glazyev, Member of the Board (Minister) for Integration and Macroeconomics of the EEC, at the round table “Russia” held on June 1, 2022 in IA REGNUM: what image of the future meets the goals of national development?”, organized by the RUSSTRAT Institute and REGNUM News Agency.

We are now addressing the fundamental questions of our existence. And a special military operation is a catalyst for this process of understanding our place in the world, and of course, we need an image of the future. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the special military operation, which was initially announced as denazification, demilitarization – we understand what this means for Ukraine – is now gradually raising the stakes on this front.

Everyone is already saying that this is a global hybrid war, although it was clear from the beginning that the special operation should be considered in a much broader context. Now many people believe that this is a civilizational war, where different worldview systems are opposed. It is clear that this is a war of good and evil and a war for the survival of humanity in the end.

Before we talk about the image of our future, I would like to draw your attention to the patterns of long-term socio-economic and political development. We – I mean a group of scientists from the Academy of Sciences who work in long cycles of economic and social development-first of all, we managed to foresee this particular war in 2022. Back in the 14th year, it was clear that the challenge that we faced and the result of which was reunification with the Crimea, will necessarily affect the entire Russian world, including the territory of Ukraine. I even published a book, The Last World War.

Somewhere, what we see today was absolutely and almost precisely formulated, including the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces and the role of the Americans and the British in this occupation of Ukraine, as well as the cultivation of Ukrainian Nazism. All this was predicted almost to the last detail. We are continuing our research. According to which the peak of the confrontation falls on 2024. This is the forecast that my colleague gave 10 years ago, even before the current military operation and even before 2014. And then there were no new political seven-year cycles.

Why 2024 and why are we in such a situation of hybrid warfare? The fact is that the modern period is characterized by two simultaneous revolutionary events. The first is the technological revolution, which used to be talked about a lot. It is called differently, we say that it is a change of technological structures. And always this change in technological patterns occurs through the economic depression, which in this cycle began in the world in 2008 – with the beginning of the global financial crisis.

And during this transition phase, a new technological order has already been formed, a well-known complex of nano-engineering information and communication technologies, which is evolving not only into the economy. But also in the ways of conducting military operations, too. We actually see that we are facing more than just an enemy based in the Pentagon and Mi6. Our troops are facing artificial intelligence. This is already a war of a new technological order.

But a more important point is the change in world economic patterns in the context of our current topic. The change of national economic structures is a process that occurs once a century and during which the management system changes. Previously, we would call this the process of socio-political revolution, but, speaking in a modern way, this is a radical change in the institutions of world economic relations, industrial relations and the entire system of managing socio-economic development, which is also accompanied by a change in the centers of the world economy.

The global economy is rapidly shifting to Southeast Asia, which already accounts for more than half of gross domestic product growth. And in this new center of the world economy, a completely different management system has been formed compared to the one in which we live today. I must say that the change in world economic patterns, as you can see in this picture at the top. These are world economic patterns with a once-in-a-century shift cycle. And at the bottom are technological ones, the change of technological structures, which have a cycle of change phases of about 50 years.

Technological patterns are well known in the literature as long Kondratiev waves, more precisely, the life cycles of technological patterns and their growth phase are a long “Kondratiev wave”. The growth phase of the world economy is a century-long cycle of capital accumulation.

Once a century, there is a dangerous resonance when we simultaneously face a technological revolution, a socio-economic revolution, and a socio-political revolution. In the course of this process, not only the technology changes, but also the mindset changes. The ideology is changing, if you will. As an example, we will cite the previous phase of changing world economic patterns.

This is a process that always, unfortunately, occurs through world wars. World wars in this case are caused by the fact that the ruling elite of the previous center of the world economy does not want to part with its hegemony and tries with all its might to keep it, up to the outbreak of a world war.

end

Russia moves to a war footing

Inbox

Putin given new authorities and war production plants are all put on a 24/7 production schedule. This suggests that all newer strike systems will be vastly be vastly increased in quantity. This by default tells us Russia has sufficient component supply on hand or in production to accomplish this schedule.
“ Ensuring the conduct of antiterrorist and other operations by the arm forces of the Russian federation, other troops, military formations and bodies outside the territory of the Russian federation”
The explanatory note states that this includes, amongst other things, ”special military operation in the territories of Lugansk, Donetsk and the Ukraine”
It have long explained they will expand their operation beyond eastern part as they have no choice given NATO supply and forces on ground in all but official form. Biden is sending another 800 million in arms to the Ukraine. While BOJO tells Zelensky no deal with Russia. Sadly, the Ukraine is a puppet on a string that is expendable as are their citizens. This is obvious and applies to the rest of Europe.
We should expect to hear and see much greater use of longer range strike weapons systems including biome of the newer ones recently tested in weeks ahead. This while perhaps limited to Ukraine for some time will expand as both sides are actively pursuing a broader conflict front. In the case of Russia, they will not hesitate to use tactical systems once such fighting breaks out and they same care being applied in the Ukraine to infrastructure will not be present. Stay away from military bases or troop formations and be ready for power outages.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Totally nuts: Elmo advertises COVID 19 vaccine shots for children under 5

(Pan/EpochTimes)

Elmo, Now Vaccinated, Advertises COVID-19 Vaccine Shots For Children Under 5

THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 – 09:10 PM

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

“Sesame Street” is advertising COVID-19 vaccines to its youngest audiences after the federal government greenlighted the shots for children under the age of 5.“Sesame Street” characters Elmo (R) and Louie (L) appear in a public services announcement that encourages parents of children under 5 to get informed about the COVID-19 vaccines. (Sesame Workshop/YouTube)

The 1-minute public service ad, released Tuesday by nonprofit educational organization Sesame Workshop, features the red Muppet monster Elmo and his Muppet dad Louie. It begins with Elmo showing a Band-Aid on his arm next to dad, saying, “Now Daddy has super-duper bandages just like Elmo!”

“You were super duper today, getting your COVID vaccine, Elmo,” replied a Louie who has three Band-Aids on his arm, indicating having received two vaccine shots and a booster.

“There was a little pinch, but it was OK,” Elmo added.

Louie then turned to the audience, saying that he had a conversation with their family pediatrician about whether it is safe to vaccinate 3-year-old Elmo.

“I had a lot of questions about Elmo getting the COVID vaccine. Was it safe? Was it the right decision?” Louie spoke to parents watching the ad. “I learned that Elmo getting vaccinated is the best way to keep himself, our friends, neighbors and everyone else healthy and enjoying the things they love.”

The ad, which is co-produced with the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and New York-based media company Ad Council, ends by directing parents to go to GetVaccineAnswers.org if they have questions related to having their young children vaccinated. The website is created by Ad Council in partnership with the CDC.

Jeanette Betancourt, senior vice president of U.S. social impact at Sesame Workshop, said in a press release that parents will “understandably have questions about the COVID-19 vaccines for young children.

“With help from Elmo and his dad Louie, we want to model real conversations, encourage parents’ questions, and help children know what to expect,” Betancourt said. “We’re proud to continue our efforts with the Ad Council, COVID Collaborative, CDC, and AAP to help families get connected to information and keep their children, neighbors, and communities safe and healthy.”

Sesame Workshop’s new ad is the continuation of a campaign it launched last year to promote COVID-19 vaccine to older children. In November, “Sesame Street” characters appeared on a CNN town hall titled “The ABCs of COVID Vaccines.” The program was hosted by CNN anchor Erica Hill and chief medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, who answered questions about the pediatric vaccine from the Muppets.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who last year took issue with using beloved children’s show to convince young children to take the jab and called it “government propaganda,” criticized the new ad for promoting something that is not at all backed by science.

“Thanks, [Sesame Street] for saying parents are allowed to have questions! You then have [Elmo] aggressively advocate for vaccinating children UNDER 5. But you cite ZERO scientific evidence for this,” the senator wrote on Twitter.

Cruz is one of the 18 Republican members of Congress who questioned the safety and necessity of the COVID-19 vaccines for the youngest Americans when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergency use authorization (EUA) to the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech’s pediatric shots in early June.

“When will the FDA and CDC provide the public with more details on those children who have had the most serious adverse outcomes from COVID-19 infections?” the Republicans asked in a Jun. 7 letter (pdf) to the FDA. “What is the cardiac risk factor in administering these EUA COVID vaccines to children?”

“One of the most important things we know is that this virus poses minimal risk for children,” Cruz said in a press release. “Before the FDA approves an Emergency Use Authorization for a children’s vaccine, parents should be able to see the data and paperwork they would use to justify this decision. This is the least the FDA can do for families in Texas and across the country so parents can make the best decisions for their children.”

According to CDC, as of June 22, about 30 percent of children ages 5 to 11 and 60 percent of children ages 12 to 17 had been fully vaccinated.

END

Also nuts: New Hampshire Governor vetoes Ivermectin bill

(Giordano/EpochTimes)

New Hampshire Governor Vetoes Ivermectin Bill

THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu vetoed a bill that would have made Ivermectin available without a prescription.Ivermectin tablets packaged for human use. (Natasha Holt/The Epoch Times)

The Republican governor vetoed the bill on June 24, the same day that the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Some fellow Republicans questioned the timing.

“It certainly seemed like a convenient way to bury a veto of a bill that won support from the vast majority of Republicans in New Hampshire,” JR Hoell, co-founder of the conservative watchdog group RebuildNH, told The Epoch Times.

Hoell is a former four-term House Republican planning to seek re-election after a four-year hiatus from the the New Hampshire legislature.

Earlier this year, the New Hampshire Department of Children Youth and Family (DCYF) tried to take custody of Hoell’s 13-year old son after a nurse reported him for giving human-grade ivermectin to the teen months earlier.

Several states have introduced bills to make human-grade ivermectin available without a prescription at a brick and mortar store. Currently, it can be ordered online from another country. In April, Tennessee became the the first state to sign such a measure into law. New Hampshire lawmakers were first to introduce the idea.

Both chambers of the state’s Republican controlled legislature approved the bill.

In his statement explaining the veto, Sununu noted that there are only four other controlled medications available without a prescription in New Hampshire and that each were only made available after “rigorous reviews and vetting to ensure” before being dispensed.

“Patients should always consult their doctor before taking medications so that they are fully aware of treatment options and potential unintended consequences of taking a medication that may limit other treatment options in the future,” Sununu said in his statement.

Sununu’s statement is very similar to testimony given by Paula Minnehan, senior vice president of state government regulations for the New Hampshire Hospital Association, at hearings on the bill.

Minnehan too placed emphasis on the review that went into the four prescription medications the state made available under a standing order. They include naloxone, the generic name for Narcan, which is used to counter opioid overdoses, hormone replacement therapy drugs, and a prescription-version of the morning after pill.

It also includes a collection of smoking cessation therapy drugs like Chantix, which has been linked to suicide, depression, and other neuropsychiatric conditions. Last year, Pfizer, the leading maker of the FDA-approved drug, conducted a voluntarily recall of Chantix. Narcan has also been linked to deaths caused by severe withdrawals that have led to acute respiratory distress.

Rep. Melissa Blasek, a Republican co-sponsor of the New Hampshire ivermectin bill, told The Epoch Times, that one could veto any drug-related bill under the pretense of overdose concerns.

“The reality is you can overdose on Tylenol,” she said. “Ivermectin has one of the safest track records of any drug.”

The use of human-grade ivermectin became controversial when some doctors began promoting it for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Government agencies including the FDA and CDC issued warnings against its use while groups like Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) heavily promoted it.

Some doctors were disciplined for prescribing human-grade ivermectin for COVID-19 including a Maine doctor whose medical license was suspended by the state.

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Two Thirds of All Americans Fully Vaccinated with COVID-19 Experimental Shots as Vaccine Injuries and Deaths Increase 2000% – 56X More Deaths

June 30, 2022 7:43 pm

According to statistics published by the CDC, 222,123,223 people in the U.S. are now fully vaccinated with COVID-19 shots, about two thirds of the population. 78% of the population has had at least one COVID-19 shot, which means a significant number of people stopped getting the shots after receiving one, and that percentage continues to drop with the boosters. 593,739,529 COVID-19 shots have been administered during the past 18 months, producing 1,307,928 reports of deaths and injuries filed in the national Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS). That means for every 454 COVID-19 experimental shots injected into people, an adverse event was recorded in VAERS (it is probably much higher than that, but these are the ones the CDC decided to release to the public in the VAERS database). By way of contrast, data collected by the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program between the years 2006 and 2014 report that 2,532,428,541 doses of all FDA-approved vaccines were injected into people during that 9-year period, which produced 272,905 cases of injuries and deaths reported to VAERS. That means for every 9,280 vaccines administered during the years from 2006 through 2014, an adverse event was recorded in VAERS. That is a tragic number for vaccine victims in an industry that cannot be sued for damages from their vaccine products, but it pales in comparison to how deadly the COVID-19 vaccines have been. And they keep on injecting people with them, including now infants as young as 6 months old.

MICHAEL EVERY AND BILL BLAIN

Michael Every and Bill Blain on the day’s most important topics

First: Bill Blain

Blain: “Markets Are Still In Denial/Fool-Themselves Mode”

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Cheer up my lads ‘tis to glory we steer, to add something new to this wonderful year…”

Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2.

It’s the last day of June, the end of the 2nd Quarter of this inglorious year, and the headlines sum up the mood: Banks are warning of recession, Tesla is laying off staff from its Autodrive division (really? I thought that was what justified it’s 100 times P/E?), petrol prices at the pump are putting on a new high. Or how about Morgan Stanley warning the price of Carnival Cruise could tumble to zero if recession triggers a major demand shock.. High probability then…

Will things get any better in the second half of the year?

Probably not.

Jay Powel said it all: The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent” Inflation is Central Banks number one concern – not addressing the market declines we’ve seen in the first half. We’re expecting a series of large hikes in interest rates through the summer – even the ECB!

Yet, Markets are still in denial/fool-themselves mode. Markets tend to accentuate the positive and, in doing so remain largely unaware of reality. But at some point reality and inflated hopes tend to collide. Usually painfully.

I’m guessing, but I have a gut-feeling the coming July earnings season could be the straw that triggers the next leg down. The results news-flow will be subtle, and its unlikely to be a succession of disastrous results – just a stream of not-quite-as-good-as-expected numbers. Cumulatively, the news trend will confirm companies are struggling more than anticipated with the consequences of high staffing costs and low availability, high inventories and the need to discount, falling demand on the back of the inflation shock, and ongoing supply chain issues.

Listen very closely to what CEO’s are really saying, and strip out what they want you to hear. Get past the corporate blandishments and it could reverse years of blithe expectations. It’s going to highlight just how badly the real world is still misfiring. (There is a developing sub-text to the corporate outlook – the increasing untenability of highly levered Zombies.. the first, like Revlon have already stumbled.)

Think back to the Pandemic. When it began in March 2020 the stock market took a massive dip. And then it went steadily higher and higher – fuelled by expectations of swift recovery once Covid was beaten. Positive news – like vaccine tests, airports reopening or falling infections were each greeted by rallies. Traders and professional investors talked about how the wall of pandemic savings would create a post-pandemic boom.

The real question to ponder is… why were markets so wrong? Now we look headed for recession. It’s not just the Ukraine energy and food inflation stocks. Much of it boils down to still broken global supply chains.

One of the surprising things I’ve learnt over nearly 40 years about the business of finance is how little investment bankers actually know about the real world. They experience little real “friction” in the business of moving assets around an electronic balance sheet, or calculating returns on a laptop. This morning I have experienced friction because my Laptop had a hissy fit. I was about to punch it before our IT guy bravely stepped in….

In the real world there is tremendous friction in every single part of all transactions – loading a ship, putting cargo on a plane, getting goods shifted from A to B, waiting for parts, waiting for payments, dealing with customers, building products and selling them. It’s difficult. Yet, friction played little part in the markets analysis of the pandemic. Analysts straight out of Investment Management school have diddly-squat idea about the real world.

Even now I don’t think the “market” understands the real economy. It’s still poised for a buying opportunity – looking for signals the bottom has passed and it’s time to buy. I read loads of research about why markets may go up, and look at pages of overweight recommendations and just a few lines of underweight. The market remains highly biased to the upside.

That’s the real divergence in the economy – what the market thinks is happening, and what actual people on the ground actually see… Let me digress for a moment and try to explain the divergence:

For the first 20 years of my inglorious career in finance I spent 99% of my time speaking to fellow finance professionals – traders, salesmen, economists all pushing whatever the investment banking line was. I then relayed these perspectives to my clients in the debt capital markets; Bank Treasurers, CEOs, Investment Firm Economists and Strategists, Portfolio Managers and funding bosses. I existed in a groupthink bubble comprising entirely financial market participants. I thought, acted and behaved like a financial professional clone.

It took me years to realise just how conditioned I had become.

I was lucky. Writing the Morning Porridge since 2007 – and being a natural cynic – has helped. I was lucky to retain just enough disbelief to realise how fundamentally broken financial markets were by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. My blinkers over investment banking were lifted after the bank I’d led from zero to top 3 in the Financial Institutions business sacked me for “not fitting in.” I perceived just how distorted markets became as a result of regulation, monetary experimentation and QE.

I broke out the bubble. As financial markets became more and more distorted, I started to look for opportunities in real assets rather than financial assets. It’s been fascinating.

Since 2009 I’ve been fortunate to spend an increasing amount of my time talking to real people with real jobs in the real economy. I chat to real entrepreneurs and businesses looking for finance and meeting a whole range of executives, engineers, marketing managers, retail leaders, designers and guys who actually make stuff. A brush with illness brought me to Earth, meeting doctors able to explain not only why I wasn’t working, but the issues with heath provision. Talking to real nurses, brickies, chippies, and artisans has been extraordinary.

I now find it’s difficult to take all finance professionals seriously. It’s been a learning curve about friction.

Pandemic reality slows and there still aren’t enough ships, lorry drivers, pilots, baggage handlers… As shortages bite, inflation rises, we get further exogenous shocks, and a cost-of-living crisis develops. Firms suddenly find themselves with over-ambitious inventories, and suddenly there is talk of companies dumping stock, meaning they miss margins. As interest rates soar to address inflation, zombie companies that leveraged themselves up to buy back their own stock suddenly find themselves busting. (There just is not enough worry about how the junk sector is likely to fare.)

And supply chains are not fixed.

Speak to real economy professionals and they will tell you rising labour costs, rising energy costs, rising logistical costs, rising transport costs, ongoing shortages of key parts, longer lead times for parts, ongoing supply disruptions, rising inventory levels, rising tariffs and barriers to trade, increasing red-tape, geopolitical uncertainty, right down to their simply not being enough space to store components in what was once a just-in-time based factory… and it’s all a recipe for a broken economy.

Compare and contrast to what the market expected and believed would happen – a frictionless reopening of the post-pandemic economy, and what we actually have: ongoing supply chain disruption and friction. All it takes is a few missing containers, a delayed ship (because it slowed down because fuel costs soared), or a container pork blocked because there aren’t enough lorry drivers. One pebble quickly becomes a landslide.

Real businesses are addressing it – they are solving problems ranging from storage space, using smart data, communications, planning and new supply chain approaches. If a particular chip is unavailable and irreplaceable, they find a work around – even it means delaying deliveries. Its tough. They know it may take years because it’s not just supply chains that are changing – its terms of trade, trade routes and costs. Markets assume it will just happen – probably tomorrow or the day after. No it won’t.

And ongoing supply chain crisis is just one aspect of what markets aren’t grasping in terms of the economic reality out there… The inflation shocks from Energy, Food and now Wages. These are real and long-term. They were never transitory.

One of the aspects of the coming Carnival Lines dunking will be its coming liquidity crisis on the back of rising interest rates and crashing customer demand. Morgan Stanley point out it has $30 bln of debt and “unsustainably” high leverage. As its’ stock prices continues on a downwards spire, then raising new equity will be dilutive and costly. You can bet its not the only firm in trouble!

END

And now Michael Every…

“…And Then?”

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 11:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“… And Then?”

Thursday was another down day in most markets, with staggering moves in some. US stocks closed down (-0.9% S&P) and had their worst H1 since 1970. How many Wall Street analysts had that pencilled in?

Bonds rallied. US 10s breached the key 3% level, which had been establishing itself as a floor vs. a 3.50% ceiling, but were back above it at time of writing. European bonds have seen a staggering two-day move, with German 5s down 35bp in just two days, apparently only the third time that has happened in 20 years, and 10s down 29bps. That was despite Reuters suggesting that the ECB would buy Italian, Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish bonds with the proceeds from German, French, and Dutch bonds. Yet overall bonds still had an H1 for the ages too – in a bad sense.

Commodities got smacked again and are all well down from their 2022 peaks. Base metals have given up all their Ukraine war gains. Yet oil as the key benchmark is still up 48% year-to-date. Javier Blas from Bloomberg also picks up the Banque de France flagging concerns about global commodity trading, which it calls an “oligopolistic market”, with “potentially systemic importance and moral hazard”, and where “more extensive work still needs to be done on the regulation.” This is red flag that has been waved by the Fed before.

Bitcoin crumbled further below $19,000. The US dollar once again was up sharply, then down again, with the DXY at 104.7, having been at 105.5. If we see another spike that is held even as everything else starts to collapse,… well, fasten your seatbelts. Fed swap lines will be needed.

In short, if you bought stocks in H1, you lost; if bonds, you lost; if commodities, you were doing great until recently; if crypto you lost; if the US dollar, you were fine.

Some of the extreme moves we have seen recently were likely exacerbated by end-month and end-quarter flows/repositioning. So, now on to Q3 and H2.

We kick off with the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP tracker being revised down to -1.0%, meaning the US *is* already in recession even before we have to worry about one ahead. At least that clears the picture a little.

Except that supply chain chaos may be easing at sea in some places, but worsening in others. As Freight Waves puts it, “The jaws of the supply chain vise are squeezing trade so tight that the headache it is creating will be a whopper for logistics managers this peak season. Port congestion is growing again as a result of labour and equipment inefficiencies.” More, properly-focused workers are needed urgently, is their conclusion. Indeed, alongside airport chaos, American Airline pilots are getting a 17% pay rise to try to keep things running. Yes, 17%, not 1.7%.

In short, some pipeline deflation is evident – but not in energy: and pockets of structural inflation remain that cannot be resolved by the stroke of any central bank pen.

Listening to recent commentary, the market appears madly focused on the idea that for all of the calamites unfolding around us there is one simple solution – the Fed cuts rates, and soon. Making that call is important, and particularly because it means ignoring what the Fed, every central bank, and the BIS, just said loudly and clearly – that rates are going up a lot anyway. However, let’s presume the Fed and every central bank is wrong (which is a healthy place to start) and the market is right (which isn’t), and a Fed pivot is imminent (which may be true).

My key question is: “…and then?”

Most of the market doesn’t seem to have an answer in terms of the big picture. It doesn’t even want to try to think of one. Fed cuts will apparently make all our issues go away. Yes, a logical near-term response is “go long stocks; long bonds; long commodities; short the US dollar; long crypto; and long risk”.

However, my question is still: “…and then?”

What about Inequality? Energy prices? The food crisis? Regulation of commodity markets? Geopolitics? National security? The war? The climate? How does this all join up, and where are we going even if we do get lower rates?

I cannot tell you how few market commentators are willing to even begin to answer those questions holistically:

because it’s hard; and
because “go long stocks; long bonds; long commodities; short the US dollar; long crypto; and long risk”, makes lots of people lots of money.

So, they will keep peddling their threadbare wares, and I will keep saying “…and then?” until I get some answers like the annoying voice at the Chinese restaurant in that avantgarde arthouse US film ‘Dude, Where’s My Car?’ And ‘wonton soup’, while nice, is not going to be one of them.

To make my point, yesterday saw another huge US Supreme Court ruling: this time to roll back the “administrative state” – as Justice Thomas had flagged in an interview. Specifically, it ruled the Environmental Protection Agency has limits to its regulation of carbon emissions. As with Roe vs. Wade, elected officials now have to make decisions on crucial matters, this time federal not state.

“…and then?”

Which regulator will be next, and which key legislation will then be added to the pile for a dysfunctional Congress that has a narrow Democrat majority now, but which is likely to see a larger Republican (and MAGA) one after the November mid-term elections?

“…and then?”

To repeat another point I had made on Monday, if you extend the logic of the ruling, the Fed may get nervous. I’m not sure exactly what case somebody might be able to bring against the 1913 Federal Reserve Act –perhaps being egregiously harmed by QE?– but if they can, we might find out if this Court thinks the Fed also has de facto executive power, enforcement power, and adjudication power outside of the constitution.

The ECB dealt with similar issues in their German constitutional court case in recent years and emerged even more powerful – but then Europe generally likes centralized regulation a whole lot more than US conservatives do. Yet one wonders how the ECB will fare politically if it starts selling core bonds to buy peripherals, and once we eventually find out how its much-vaunted but even more controversial Anti-Fragmentation Tool (AFT) actually works –or doesn’t– in practice.

“…and then?”

Who knows? But more volatility surely. Does the Fed get to keep control when other elements of the administrative state fade away? Or does the Fed gain greater power via regulation of commodity markets and expanded dollar swap lines (for friends only),… and then do central governments gain greater powers over central banks to ensure national security needs are met?

“…and then?”

We have to look bigger picture. Turkey is to get new US F-16s, and so Greece is to get new US F-35s (partly paid for by the ECB via German, French, and Dutch bonds).

“…and then?”

Not too far away, and despite the utopian prognostications of the EU’s foreign policy bumblebee Borrell, the word on the street is the Iranians are playing hard ball in the latest indirect US-Iran talks because a powerful clique in Tehran is not sure if they want to bother with the pretense of the nuclear deal or not. People are really talking about the “last chance” for any agreement.

“…and then?”

New Zealand agreed a trade deal with the EU. Yet PM Ardern’s warning at the recent NATO summit –also attended by Australia, Japan, and South Korea– that China is becoming more assertive, has drawn a sharp rebuke, as did the summit’s focus on China as well as Russia. Beijing has noted Ardern’s “misguided,” “wrong,”, and “regrettable” accusations.

“…and then?”

In the US, Senate Minority Leader McConnell has now threatened to withhold support on the until-now bipartisan US COMPETES Act aimed at helping to onshore semiconductor production, if the bill also includes items not related to the issue at hand. Relatedly, just published a look at the potential for ‘friend-shoring’ of supply chains from China to others (‘Friends Reunited’). The simple conclusion is that were this to happen on even the limited scale we project relative to China’s total labour force, it could transform global trading patterns; moreover, China’s trade surplus would swing to a deficit, leading to lower GDP growth and an inability to use fiscal and monetary policy to compensate without a balance of payments and FX crisis.

Obviously, China will do all that it can to retain its trade ‘MySpace’ as a result.

“…and then?”

“…and theeen?”

“…and theeeeeen?”

“…So, we think the Fed will cut rates…”

Happy Friday, July, Q3, and H2.

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Biden Takes Aim at America’s Largest Oil Field, Threatens to Stop Production, Sending Gas Prices Soaring

Inbox

No one is this dumb.

Biden Takes Aim at America’s Largest Oil Field, Threatens to Stop Production, Sending Gas Prices Soaring

end

This is going to hurt quite a few investors!! major write-offs

Putin Replaces Sakhalin-2 Energy Project Operator With New Domestic Entity – The Moscow Times

Inbox

Ouch! Billions of balance sheet value is up in smoke

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/01/putin-replaces-sakhalin-2-energy-project-operator-with-new-domestic-entity-a78173

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0446 DOWN 0.0032 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY RED

USA/ YEN 135.23 DOWN .559 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.20400 DOWN 0.01204

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.98 POINTS UP 0.32%

Hang Sang CLOSED

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.39% // EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.98 PTS UP 0.32%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.39%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 457.42 OR 1.73%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1787.15

silver:$19.67

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.88 UP 41 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.26% DOWN 18 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.211% DOWN 1 AND 1/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.26%// DOWN 19 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.19 DOWN 21 points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.217%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0407 DOWN 0.0072 or 72 basis points

USA/Japan: 135.16 DOWN 0.628 OR YEN up 63 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2098 DOWN 0.01217 OR 122 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0041 OR 41 BASIS pts to 1.2913

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7009

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.7031

TURKISH LIRA: 16.75 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.211

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 9 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.886% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.104 DOWN 2 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.11 UP 64 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 9.45 PTS OR 0.13%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 18.53 POINTS OR 0.15%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 2.54 PTS OR 0.04%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 65.10 OR 0.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 35.32PTS OR 0.17%

WTI Oil price 107.97 12: EST

Brent Oil: 110.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 54.30 DOWN 2 & 85/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.217

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0424 down .0054 OR 54 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2094 DOWN .0065 or 65 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.20 DOWN 0.595//YEN UP 60 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2896 DOWN 0.0023 (CDN dollar down 23 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 108.28

Brent OIL: 111.37

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.889 down 9 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.116 DOWN 1 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.77

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 54.50 DOWN 3 AND 5/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 322.03 PTS OR 1.05 %

NASDAQ 100 UP 81.96 PTS OR 0.71%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.74 DWN 1.95 PTS (6.79)%

GLD: 168.27 DOWN 0.19 PTS OR 0.11%

SLV/ 18.31 DOWN .33 PTS OR 1.77%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Inflation ‘Off’, Recession ‘On’: Stocks Purged As Bonds & The Dollar Surged

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 04:01 PM

“You Are Here”… in the “strongest economy in the world”

Well that was a week…

All of a sudden the world stopped worrying about inflation and started fearing recession.

Economic data has been collapsing recently…

Source: Bloomberg

With ‘soft’ survey data now leading the drop – to its weakest level since August 2019 as hope collapses…

Source: Bloomberg

Consensus recession odds rose…

Source: Bloomberg

Modeled – macro-data-driven – recession odds are a lock now…

Source: Bloomberg

And US inflation breakevens have cratered – making it look like The Fed’s jawboning rate-hike expectations higher has reinforced some of their credibility…

Source: Bloomberg

The big question – as we saw this week with rate-hike expectations tumbling (and rate-cut expectations rising) – is if The Fed will actually stick to this plan… or fold like a cheap lawn chair…

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now pricing in a policy error and fast reversal by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest gainer from all this sentiment shifting was bonds… globally.

European bond yields crashed this week with German 2Y yields seeing the widest high to low swing in their history! Italian bonds ripped, compressing their spread (defragmentation risk) to Bunds to the lowest in 7 weeks.

Source: Bloomberg

“The two-way volatility seems to be feeding off poor liquidity conditions and off-side positioning today,” said Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence

Treasury yields were clubbed like a baby seal today, extending the week’s drop with the belly outperforming (5Y -30bps, 30Y -15bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury Bonds are rallying from their cheapest level in 11 years relative to stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the 10Y yields biggest weekly drop since March 2020 – seemingly finding it hard to hold yield gains above 3.00% again…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite today’s late-day ramp into the green (quarter-start flows), US equity markets continued lower on the week with the Nasdaq the ugliest horse in the glue factory, down over 4%…

Did stocks start pricing in The Fed’s response to the recession?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfcmVmc3JjX3Nlc3Npb24iOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd191c2VyX2ZvbGxvd19pbnRlbnRfMTQ0MDYiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiZm9sbG93IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9lZGl0X2Zyb250ZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1542880703511236608&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Finflation-recession-stocks-purged-bonds-dollar-surged&sessionId=2b542e247f865b71b3747df2848dd8945da69cb0&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b45a03c79d4c1%3A1654150928467&width=550px

Utilities were the week’s best performer as Consumer Discretionary stocks and Tech were slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week higher, trading back near post-CPI highs but notably the last two days have seen overnight strength hit hard during the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were hammered again with Bitcoin tumbling back below $20,000 (despite an overnight panic bid up near $21k)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices bounced today after OPEC+ reported that they missed their production goals (again) by an ever growing amount and ended the week very marginally higher…

Gold ended the week down around 1%, rebounding notably today after breaking back below $1800. Silver was slammed on the week, down over 6%…

European NatGas continues to soar higher amid Russia restrictions and the absence of US exports due to Freeport LNG’s closure. In ‘oil barrel equivalent’ terms, US NatGas is now cheaper than WTI Crude, and EU NatGas is way more than double the cost…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that President Biden’s disapproval rating has hit a record high… as Americans are the most miserable since Jimmy Carter was president…

Source: Bloomberg

And for those who think “it can’t get any worse”… equity market valuations have only dropped to the same level they were at during the peak of the DotCom bubble…

Source: Bloomberg

And the lower that gets… the more layoffs and misery will come.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Bond Yields Are Puking…

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 10:11 AM

The 5Y Treasury yield is down 25bps this morning.

Read that again… 25bps!

The entire Treasury curve is re-rating lower as recession risks soar (Manufacturing surveys look ugly this morning)…

The 10Y yield has plunged below 3.00% – now testing 2.80%… (and 5Y yields are also at 2.80%)

And market expectations for Fed hikes are tumbling while subsequent rate-cut expectations are rising…

A very dramatic difference from The Fed’s Dot-Plot expectations…

Mr. Powell, you have a problem!

ii) USA DATA

Atlanta Fed: another slash on Q2 GDP now down -2.1%

(zerohedge)

JPM Warns US “Perilously Close To Recession” As Atlanta Fed Slashes Q2 GDP To -2.1%

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 06:20 PM

This week has seen investors shift from inflation anxiety to recession fears as stocks have been hammered and bonds bid (along with rate-hike expectations tumbling).

The continued erosion in economic data has prompted The Atlanta Fed to slash its forecast for Q2 GDP growth to -2.1% meaning the US is now technically in recession (after Q1’s confirmed 1.6% contraction yesterday).

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP has collapsed in recent days, growth in the second quarter of 2022 has been cut to a contractionary -2.1%, down from -1.0% on June 30, down from 0.0% on June 15, down from +0.9% on June 6, down from 1.3% on June 1, and down from 1.9% on May 27.

As the AtlantaFed notes, “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.”

In short: the US consumer is getting tapped out, just as we have been warning repeatedly.

Which also fits with Jamie Dimon’s recent “downgrade” of the economy from “storm clouds” to “hurricane”… and also makes some sense given the recent collapse in macro data relative to expectations…

And longer-term, the trend towards stagflation could not be clearer…

The Atlanta Fed’s recession forecast coincides with JPMorgan’s economists cutting their US mid-year economic growth forecasts after an influx of weaker data this week – most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The Wall Street bank reduced its estimate for annualized gross domestic product growth to 1% for the second quarter, down from 2.5% previously. This quarter is also seen at 1%, down from 2%. Growth will tick up to 1.5% in the final three months of the year, helped by stronger car production and lower inflation, the bank’s economists said.

“Our forecast comes perilously close to a recession,” Michael Feroli, JPMorgan’s chief US economist, wrote in a note Friday. “However, we continue to look for the economy to expand, in part because we think employers may be reluctant to shed workers, even in a period of soft product demand.”

And comes a day after Nomura called for a Global Recession.

And this is increasingly problematic for The Fed, as the market is now betting Powell and his pals won’t get close to hiking as much as they hope…

All of which means The Fed is now hiking rates into a recession…

US Manufacturing Slumps In May, New Orders & Jobs Contract

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 10:04 AM

Analysts expected Manufacturing PMI to be flat from its ugly preliminary print of 52.4 and saw ISM Manufacturing dropping to 54.5 from 56.1 – both still comfortably in expansion (above 50) despite the collapse in US macro data relative to expectations.

BUT… things improved intra-month for Manufacturing PMI – rising to 52.7 final from 52.4 preliminary – but still notably below April’s 57.0 print.

ISM Manufacturing was worse, falling to 53.0 from 56.1 (below the 54.5 expectations).

Source: Bloomberg

The headline PMI dropped to its lowest level since July 2020 amid a near-stagnation of factory output and a fall in new orders. The decrease in sales was the first since May 2020, with domestic and foreign client demand falling.

The ISM print is the weakest since June 2020 and under the hood is more worrisome with an outright contraction in new orders and employment…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“The PMI survey has fallen in June to a level indicative of the manufacturing sector acting as a drag on GDP, with that drag set to intensify as we move through the summer. Forward-looking indicators such as business expectations, new order inflows, backlogs of work and purchasing of inputs have all deteriorated markedly to suggest an increased risk of an industrial downturn.
“Demand growth is cooling from households amid the cost-of-living crisis, and capital spending by companies is also showing signs of moderating due to tightening financial conditions and the gloomier outlook. However, most marked has been a steep drop in orders for inputs by manufacturers, which hints at an inventory correction.
“Some welcome news is that the drop in demand for inputs has brought some pressure off supply chains and calmed prices for a wide variety of goods, which should help alleviate broader inflationary pressures in coming months.”

So, even though the manufacturing surveys are still above the 50 Maginot Line, the steep declines sync positively with the rising recession fears and soaring rate-cut expectations being priced into the markets…

Will Powell jawbone that expectation away, or embrace it as policy?

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a. USA economic stories

My goodness!!

(zerohedge)

“Simply Outrageous”: Ernst & Young Fined Record $100 Million After SEC Finds Auditors Cheating On CPA Exams For “Several Years”

THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 – 08:50 PM

Ernst & Young better have some “answers”…

It was reported this week that the massive audit firm was fined with a record $100 million fine after regulators found out that the company knew some of its auditors had been cheating on exams for “several years” – and did nothing to stop it.

This week, the Securities and Exchange Commission said that a “significant number” of candidates cheated on the Certified Public Accountant test. The kicker? Most of the cheating was on the “ethics” portion of the exam…

The SEC also said that Ernst & Young “made a submission” that it didn’t have “current issues with cheating when, in fact, the firm had been informed of potential cheating on a CPA ethics exam,” a new report from CNN revealed.

Gurbir Grewal, director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division, commented this week: “This action involves breaches of trust by gatekeepers within the gatekeeper entrusted to audit many of our nation’s public companies. It’s simply outrageous that the very professionals responsible for catching cheating by clients cheated on ethics exams of all things.”

He said it was “equally shocking” that the company didn’t fess up during the investigation.

Grewal continued: “This action should serve as a clear message that the SEC will not tolerate integrity failures by independent auditors who choose the easier wrong over the harder right.”

The SEC also ordered that Ernst & Young bring on two independent firms to “help remediate its deficiencies,” the report said.

“Nothing is more important than our integrity and our ethics,” the auditor responded by saying. “We have repeatedly and consistently taken steps to reinforce our culture of compliance, ethics, and integrity in the past. We will continue to take extensive actions, including disciplinary steps, training, monitoring, and communications that will further strengthen our commitment in the future.”

end

USA is now lawless!

Duchamps/EpochTimes

Drug-Traffickers Arrested With 150,000 Fentanyl Pills Set Free Just Days After Arrest: Police

THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 – 11:10 PM

Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Two drug traffickers who were arrested during a traffic stop in California last week after they got allegedly busted with 150,000 pills of fentanyl have been released back onto the streets, officials said.Alleged drug traffickers Jose Zendejas, 25, and Benito Madrigal, 19. (Courtesy of Tulare County Sheriff’s Office)

Detectives arrested Jose Zendejas, 25, and Benito Madrigal, 19, both from Washington, during a fentanyl bust in Tulare County on June 24, the Tulare County Sheriff’s Office said in a news release.

The two were booked into the county’s pre-trial facility on charges of possession, transportation, and selling of illegal drugs.

In an update on Monday, the sheriff’s office said they “received a court order releasing both suspects from custody on their own recognizance.”

“We felt it necessary to clear up any confusion there might be about the release process when it comes to our jail system,” police said.

“All inmates booked into Tulare County jails are sent through what is known as the Risk Assessment Process through the Tulare County Probation Department,” it explained. “That ‘Risk Assessment’ is then sent to a judge with the court, who, then, determines whether or not the individual arrested is held on bail or if they are to be released.”Police found 150,000 fentanyl pills with an estimated street value of $750,000. (Courtesy of Tulare County Sheriff’s Office)

Police said although Mike Boudreaux, the sheriff of Tulare County, “strongly disagrees” with the judge’s decision to release the alleged traffickers, citing public safety concerns, his office is forced to comply with the court order.

Boudreaux told Fox News that “California’s system of justice is failing us all,” adding that he was “infuriated” after he found out about the release of the men. The network reported that Tulare County Court Commissioner Mikki Verissimo signed the order to release both men.

Detectives with the Tulare County High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Unit (HIDTA) found 150 packages, each with 1,000 pills, hidden inside the suspect’s vehicle during last week’s traffic stop.

The confiscated drugs have a street value of around $750,000, as each pill sells for about $5.

According to a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report, fentanyl, a deadly opioid 50–100 times stronger than morphine, was linked to the most overdose deaths in 2021, with 71,238. Fentanyl is increasingly cut into other drugs to cut costs.

Some experts have noted that drug overdoses have been steadily increasing every year. However, in recent years, fentanyl, much of which is brought into the country via Mexican cartels from China, has triggered the recent spike in deaths.

Earlier this year, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) issued a warning about a surge of fentanyl overdoses and mass overdose events.

END

Zuckerberg (Facebook) is stating that this is one of the worst downturns in recent history as he warns his employees to brace for layoffs

(zerohedge)

“One Of The Worst Downturns In Recent History”: Zuck Warns Facebook Employees To Brace For Layoffs

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 10:45 AM

One month ago we showed that while the BLS still revels in its seasonally-adjusted statistical nonsense to divine the monthly level of payrolls, the real world is seeing a wave of mass layoff the likes of which have not been seen since the covid crash

Fast forward to today when it appears that we are about to hit the motherlode of mass layoffs, after none other than Zuck sounded the alarm bell.

According to Reuters, Facebook-owner Meta Platforms has cut plans to hire engineers by at least 30% this year, CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees on Thursday, as he warned them to brace for a deep economic downturn.

“If I had to bet, I’d say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we’ve seen in recent history,” Zuckerberg told workers in a weekly employee Q&A session, audio of which was heard by Reuters.

And while Zuck emphasized the lack of hiring – noting that it has reduced its target for hiring engineers in 2022 to around 6,000-7,000, down from an initial plan to hire about 10,000 new engineers, which comes amid a hiring paused announced month – he confirmed that layoffs are also coming saying the company was “turning up the heat” on performance management to weed out staffers unable to meet more aggressive goals.

“Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here,” Zuckerberg said, adding that “part of my hope by raising expectations and having more aggressive goals, and just kind of turning up the heat a little bit, is that I think some of you might decide that this place isn’t for you, and that self-selection is OK with me.“

Others made the message even more forcefully, with Chief Product Officer Chris Cox saying that the company must “prioritize more ruthlessly” and “operate leaner, meaner, better executing teams.”

“I have to underscore that we are in serious times here and the headwinds are fierce. We need to execute flawlessly in an environment of slower growth, where teams should not expect vast influxes of new engineers and budgets,” Cox wrote.

Translation: when even the most profitable tech companies are braching for mass layoffs, the bottom is about to fall out… or as Biden would say:

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

Flight Delay Chaos Begins As Delta Pilots Warn Of “Perfect Storm”

FRIDAY, JUL 01, 2022 – 03:20 PM

The busiest travel period of the year is underway as hundreds of flights are already delayed setting up for what could be a “perfect storm” of disruptions over the Independence Day holiday weekend.

As of 1440 ET, FlightAware, a flight tracking company, reports 680 flights are delayed and 28 canceled. The number has been steadily increasing Friday as air travel demand soars amid pilot and crew shortages causing flight disruptions. Most of the delays are at airports across the Northeast, including New York City and Washington–Baltimore metropolitan regions.

“We’re now going into the Independence Day Holiday weekend and are concerned that our customers’ plans will be disrupted once again,” Captain Jason Ambrosi, Chairman of the Delta Master Executive Council (MEC), a unit of the Air Line Pilots Association, said in a statement.

Ambrosi continued: “The perfect storm is occurring. Demand is back, and pilots are flying record amounts of overtime but are still seeing our customers being stranded and their holiday plans ruined.”

Hundreds of off-duty pilots picketed Delta Airlines at airports this week. Pilots are stressed as flight delays and cancelations result in record amounts of overtime this year.

Earlier this week, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told NBC Nightly News’s Lester Holt, “there are going to be challenges” this holiday weekend.

“There’s no quick fix” to the mess in the air, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby recently said, adding the industry is short 12,000 pilots.

Besides labor shortage, airline industry group Airlines for America, which represents the country’s largest airlines (American Airlines, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, and Alaska Airlines, as well as shippers FedEx and UPS), blamed the Federal Aviation Administration’s own understaffing for “crippling” East Coast air traffic. This looks like finger-pointing to us.

Buttigieg warned last month that airlines face federal government action— presumably fines — over mounting flight cancellations and delays.

This weekend will be nothing short of a disaster if the trend of delays and cancelations continues.

END

SWAMP STORIES

King Report

The King Report July 1 2022 Issue 6792

Independent View of the News

May Personal Income registered +0.5% m/m as expected; April was revised to +0.5% from +0.4%. However, May Spending increased only 0.2% (0.4% exp), and April was revised to +0.6% from 0.9%. Even worse, Real Personal Sending declined 0.4% (-0.3% exp), and April was revised to +0.3% from +0.7%.  This will induce economists and analysts to reduce Q2 GDP estimates.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model: Latest estimate (Q2): -1.0 percent — June 30, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth increased from -0.11 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points… (Back-to-back Qs of negative GDP) https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Stocks Tumble as Recession Specter Haunts Trading – BBG 9:59 ET
Stocks tumbled, while bonds climbed after data showing a slowdown in consumer spending — the main driver of the US economy — fueled concern about a recession… the S&P 500 poised for its worst first half since 1962… US consumer spending fell for the first time this year, suggesting an economy on somewhat weaker footing than previously thought amid rapid inflation and Federal Reserve hikes.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/stocks-asia-seen-steady-treasuries-220840262.html

We noted in yesterday’s report that Consumption had been revised to only 1.8% from 3.1% in the Q1 GDP report; Final Sales of Domestic Product declined 1.2%; and Real Disposal Personal Income tumbled 12% for Q1 2022. The equity tumble and rabid bond buying is due to these signs of economic ebbing.

@BEA_News: Get details on people’s income, spending, and saving in May in our latest blog: https://t.co/QSdUUZkuRr

ESUs traded flat during early Asian trading. After 19:00 ET, ESUs and stocks begin a gentle decline that accelerated after the Nikkei close at 1:00 ET. The decline persisted until a modest rally ahead of the European open appeared. Eventually ESUs rallied until 4:09 ET. After a modest respite, ESUs and stocks traded sideways until the rally for the NYSE open appeared. It ended at 9:31 ET.

ESUs and stocks tumbled after the NYSE opened with Fangs and related trading sardines leading the decline. The fast money was positioned for upward season bias (Q2 performance gaming, pre-4^th of July rally). Instead, troubling US economic data instigated organic selling that trumped trading patterns.

ESUs and stocks hit a bottom at 10:05 ET. They rallied steadily until 12:33 ET. An A-B-C decline appeared; it stalled when the final hour arrived. At 15:06 ET, ESUs and stocks broke lower. At 15:25, ESUs jumped 36 handles by 15:38 ET. Alas, ESUs sank 31 handle by 15:55 ET.

The US 10-year note fell below 3% for the first time since June 10. Numerous Street experts had opined that there would be billions of dollars flowing into equities and out of bonds at the end of Q2 to balance portfolios. Too many people are navigating the markets without regard to fundamental conditions that are far different than in recent years.

@CNBC: The worst first half for stocks since 1970? It’s not as bad as it looks. (Not a parody!) https://t.co/M84hLj6nuA

Global smartphone, PC shipments to decline in 2022 on China slowdown – Gartner https://t.co/XrST7c9FGy

ECB to channel cash from north to south in bid to cap spreads
The European Central Bank will buy bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece with some of the proceeds it receives from maturing German, French and Dutch debt in a bid to cap spreads between their borrowing costs… https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-bonds-exclusive-idTRNIKBN2OB158

It is a US diplomatic custom to refrain from criticizing American politicians or institutions from foreign shores. The Big Guy violated this custom yesterday while at the NATO Summit in Madrid.

Biden slammed the SCOTUS, an appalling act from anyone let alone the POTUS (Just ahead of the 4^th of July). Joe said he backs changing the Senate filibuster to restore abortion rights.

Biden: “[T]he one thing that has been destabilizing [the world] is the outrageous behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in overruling not only Roe v. Wade, but essentially challenging the right to privacy.”  https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1542496745371975680

What is even more reprehensible about Biden’s SCOTUS condemnation is that the retort was in response to a question that asked him to explain ‘if American is back’ why do 85% of Americans think the US is going in the wrong direction! The bitter old fool, probably regurgitating talking points from his handlers, blamed the SCOTUS for the public’s negative feelings for his horrid presidency!!! https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1542502356801138688

SteveGuest: FLASHBACK: Chuck Schumer on abolishing the filibuster. They “want to turn what the Founding Fathers called the ‘cooling saucer of democracy’ into the rubber stamp of dictatorship … They want to make this country into a banana republic… It will be a doomsday for democracy…”
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1542507169760698373

@DailyMail: Dem Sens Manchin and Sinema WON’T back changing filibuster to codify abortion

PS – What part of the SCOTUS ruling that abortion is a matter to be decided by THE STATES, do Democrats and the MSM not understand? Any federal abortion codifying would be squashed. It would be like Congress trying to codify the abolition of freedom of speech or religion.

The Big Guy sullied himself at the summit. Besides demeaning and undermining the SCOTUS, on foreign soil, Biden clumsily called on three pre-selected reporters, who were screened by his handlers, and then bolted. He did his ‘it’s Putin’s fault schtick.

@newsmax: “The reason why gas prices are up is because of Russia. Russia, Russia, Russia,” said President Joe Biden at the NATO summit in Madrid.
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1542510910786285571

@SteveGuest: Joe Biden should be embarrassed: Biden: “And the first question, I’m told is Darlene Superville from the Associated Press…” https://t.co/rZOauujlLF

@RealMacReport: Joe Biden confuses Sweden with Switzerland: “We got on the telephone, he suggested we call the leader of, uh, of Switzerland. Switzerland! My goodness. I’m getting really anxious here about expanding NATO, of Sweden.”   https://t.co/jEeW7QvpNs

CNBC’s @kaylatausche: Q to @POTUS from @jimtankersley: How long is fair to ask American voters to pay a premium at the pump for the war in Ukraine? Biden: “As long as it takes so Russia cannot in fact defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine. This is a critical, critical position for the world.”

Biden Will See Saudi Crown Prince but Not the Purpose of Trip – BBG 9:17 ET
Biden: Not Specifically Asking Saudi Arabia to Increase Oil Production – BBG 9:18 ET
Biden Says He’ll Ask Gulf Alliance to Boost Oil Production – BBG 9:20 ET

About 30 minutes before the challenged president contradicted himself, OPEC+ rebuked The Big Guy.

@AFP: OPEC+ keeps oil output boost unchanged (648k B/D) for August
Major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia stuck to a previously decided output boost on Thursday, despite calls for bigger increases to tame crude prices

@StephenM: The reserves in ANWR alone — shut down by Biden — could produce up to 7 TIMES more oil than we import from Russia.

Economic Confidence Crashes: 85% of Americans Say Economy is Getting Worse
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which is a summary of Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions and outlook for the economy, plunged 13 points over the past month to minus 58.
    The June score is the lowest measured since minus 64 in February 2009. The all0time low was negative 72 in October 2008. A shocking 85 percent in June say the economy is getting worse, up from 77 percent in May and only two points below of the record high hit in June 2008…
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/06/29/economic-confidence-crashes-85-of-americans-say-economy-is-getting-worse/

It’s Putin, Trump, and the SCOTUS’s fault that Americans are so glum!

The SCOTUS by a 6-3 vote curbed the EPA’s authority to restrict greenhouse gases from power plants.  The SCOTUS is returning the US to constitutional-based law. Like the Dobbs decision, SCOTUS liberals’ dissent contained no legal or logical bases, just clichéd liberal talking points.

@greg_price11: Justice Elena Kagan wrote in her dissent on the EPA case “The Court appoints itself—instead of Congress or the expert agency—the decision maker on climate policy. I cannot think of many things more frightening.” Ummm, it specifically returns the decision making to Congress.
@JunkScience: Nutty Kagan dissent in WV v. EPA claims that warming will disrupt food production. Nope. Global crop production is up 52% just since 2000.  https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1542616497192927236
   Nutty Kagan dissent in WV v. EPA claims warming causes more frequent and intense hurricanes.
Wrong on both counts. Nutty Kagan dissent in WV v. EPA claims that warming causes more heat deaths.
Nope. Not according to the US EPA web site.. Nutty Kagan dissent in WV v. EPA claims “children born this year could to live to see part of the Eastern seaboard swallowed by the ocean.” LOL. In 1986, EPA predicted Florida would be 2 feet underwater by 2020.  https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1542616497192927236

Obama ex-Solicitor General Kagan, who was never a judge before being appointed to the SCOTUS, apparently did not carefully read the majority decision. PS: Kagan coauthored a 1997 memo that urged Bill Clinton to support a ban on late-term abortions.

@JonathanTurley: The EPA decision is likely to have the most lasting and significant impact in these decisions. While it does not overrule Chevron, it reaffirms the need for major questions to be addressed by Congress and not just the agencies.
     Senate Majority Leader Schumer has condemned the decision which is curious for the head of one of the houses of Congress. This opinion reaffirms the power of the Congress and Article I powers generally. It is a curious sight of a congressional leader denouncing a decision that prevents the circumvention of Congress. It is a virtual statement of self-loathing like a player complaining of being sent back into the game by the coach.

Positive aspects of previous session
Robust US equity rally from 10:05 ET until midday

Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks got slammed when they should have been rallying for Q2’s end
Bonds soared recession concerns
Nasdaq 100 declined 30% for 1^st half of 2022, worst since 2002
The S&P 500 Index sank 21% in 1^st half of 2022, worst since 1970
Amazon decline (-34.84%) is largest drop since 2001; Tesla (-38%) had its worst quarter ever

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What does the equity tumble to end Q2 portend?
The dollar and commodities declined sharply

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3781.23
Previous session High/Low: 3818.99; 3738.67

Biden says there was no ‘quid pro quo’ with Erdogan to sell Turkey F-16s in exchange for them letting Sweden and Finland join NATO https://t.co/fIuRnCzJbw

Fed Balance Sheet: -$20.79B; MBS: -$19.487B; Has QT begun? https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220630/
Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks (Excess Reservices in system): $3.118611 trillion

BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: U.S. has a more problematic & stickier inflation problem than other nations, since more of the price pressure stems from services rather than physical goods. That’s why the Fed will likely go further in hiking rates into restrictive area than other central banks: (Chart at link)
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1542505443804606465

American Airlines offers pilots nearly 17% raises in new contract proposal
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/american-airlines-offers-pilots-nearly-17percent-raises-in-new-contract-proposal-.html

Today – There was no rally to end Q2. After the short-term upward bias for start of July and the 4^th of July rally, seasonal bias turns negative, especially for tech stocks. If techs suffer, Fangs are likely to decline in concert. Investors and traders are increasingly moving into the US recession camp. Those that want to buy stocks or advocate buying stocks despite the recession, because the Fed must end its tightening cycle, are playing an enormously risky game.

It’s time to get extremely cautious and prudent. Then wait & watch for developments. “Let’s be careful out there.” ESUs are +1.25, and USUs are -26/32 at 20:15 ET

Expected econ data: June S&P US Mfg PMI 52.4; June ISM Mfg 54.5, Prices Paid 79.9, New Orders 52, Employment 50; May Construction Spending 0.4% m/m; Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June 13.3m

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4019; 100-day MA: 4217; 150-day MA: 4351; 200-day MA: 4394
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,232; 100-day MA: 33,264; 150-day MA: 34,008; 200-day MA: 34,316

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4204.42 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3708.13 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3850.36 triggers a buy signal

@JackPosobiec: Multiple sources including one who was at the WH on Jan 6 tell me Cipollone was not there in the am when Hutchinson testified she spoke with him. J6 Cmtes is aware of this discrepancy & are ignoring media inquiries about it. Seems she made up the entire conversation.  Hi @Liz_Cheney, did you check the USSS records for the White House on Jan 6? I assure you they have.

@mrddmia: On March 7, 2022, former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified to @January6thCmte that former senior Justice Department official Jeff Clark strategized at White House with Giuliani and Trump campaign to object to election. 100% false.
https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/1542239360413736961/photo/2

@gc22gc: “Jeff Clark never even met w/ @RudyGiuliani & that was confirmed by an email that Giuliani’s attorney sent to WaPo back on May 13th. Of course, WaPo isn’t going to report this bc it doesn’t fit their narrative. Just another ex of Hutchinson providing false stmts.

@CBSNews: “If Putin was a woman he would not have invaded Ukraine”: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the Russian invasion of Ukraine “a perfect example of toxic masculinity.” (Not a parody!)
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1542164788062601217

BoJo’s pathetic virtue signaling is further confirmation that he is on very thin political ice. The UK Conservative Party ‘leader’ is light years from Thatcher or Churchill.

@ggreenwald: Some of this generation’s worst warmongers in US and UK were women: Condoleezza Rice, Hillary Clinton, Samantha Power, Nikki Haley, Susan Rice, Victoria Nuland, Baroness Ann Taylor.

Good Morning America @GMA: Ketanji Brown Jackson is sworn in as the first Black Supreme Court justice in U.S. history. (Thurgood Marshall was 1^st; Clarence Thomas was 2^nd@GMA corrected later)

Babylon Bee April 8, 2022: Clarence Thomas Receives Invite to Celebration 0f First Black Supreme Court Justice  https://babylonbee.com/news/clarence-thomas-receives-invite-to-celebration-of-first-black-supreme-court-justice

FLASHBACK: Biden said it’s ‘dangerous’ to ‘delegitimize the courts’ in 2017
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-biden-said-dangerous-delegitimize-courts-2017

NY Post’s @stevennelson10: 68 (That’s all?!) White House journalists asked @PressSec to end the mysterious prescreening of reporters let into President Biden’s events, calling it ‘antithetical to the concept of a free press’  https://nypost.com/2022/06/30/white-house-press-corps-demands-end-to-biden-event-restrictions/

Have a safe and enjoyable 4^th of July Weekend!

Greg Hunter: interviewing Dr Paul Craig Roberts

a must view..

Greg Hunter/Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts Nuke War Coming, Mysterious Deaths Don’t Stop, Dems Can’t Win

Paul Craig Roberts Nuke War Coming, Mysterious Deaths Don’t Stop, Dems Can’t Win

By Greg Hunter On July 1, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups29 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 536 7.1.22)

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts says American leaders want war with Russia. Russia is trying to avoid war, but the provocations from the U.S. and NATO keep coming. At some point, Dr. Roberts says Russia will be backed into a corner, and it won’t take long for the battle to go nuclear. This is a special interview inside the Weekly News Wrap-Up that explains how we got here and where we are going in terms of war with Russia. Dr. Roberts says it’s no longer a question of if, but when, it all hits the fan.

You cannot hide the unexplained deaths and emergency sickness. It is now happening every week. 32-year-old SNL comedian Nick Nemeroff died in his sleep this week, but before he did, he was on video complaining about being deathly sick after the two CV19 shots he already got. He pledged that he would not get the booster, and he never did–because he died a few days later. Meanwhile, Blink 182 drummer Travis Barker was rushed to the hospital with some strange emergency, and the drummer for Five Seconds of Summer passed out on stage for no apparent reason. Once again, the question is, “Were they vaxed?” This trend is going to continue for some time to come no matter if you are famous or not.

A new poll for the Democrats is coming in awful. An AP poll reveals 8 out of 10 Democrats say the country is “headed in the wrong direction.” That’s 8 out of 10 DEMOCRATS. Let that sink in. Couple that with another story from the AP that reports new data showing 1 million Democrats have left the party to register with the GOP. It looks like the Democrats cannot win without massive cheating or a war that shuts down the election process this fall. It’s going to be a rough ride. Buckle up.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 7.1.22

(https://usawatchdog.com/paul-craig-roberts-nuke-war-coming-mysterious-deaths-dont-stop-dems-cant-win/)

After the Wrap-Up:

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has predicted global war in 2023. He will give us an update on that and the so-called financial “Reset.”

SEE YOU ON TUESDAY

2 comments

GOLD CLOSED DOWN $5.45 TO $1801.50//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 61 CENTS TO $19.74 – altnews.org · July 2, 2022 - 9:05 am · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

LikeLike
JUNE 5/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $36.55 TO $1764.95 AS THE BIS IS NOW MASSIVELY COVERING ITS SHORTS//SILVER IS DOWN 55 CENTS TO $19.19 AS OUR SPECULATORS ARE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR COMMERICALS ON THE LONG SIDE//PLATINUM DOWN $18.95 TO $863.95//PALLADIUM DOWN $32 · July 5, 2022 - 9:20 pm · Reply→

[…] by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit […]

LikeLike

Robert Hryniak	4:55 PM (20 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	8:59 AM (1 minute ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	12:58 PM (1 minute ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	4:17 PM (46 minutes ago)
to