JULY 12//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $9.40 TO $1726.40//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 16 CENTS TO $19.00//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $26.55 TO $849.75//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $113.45 TO $2040.50//COVID UPDATES RE CHINA//DR PAUL ALEXANDER COMMENTARIES//VACCINE IMPACT//CHINA UNDERGOES ANOTHER MASSIVE STIMULUS TO KICKSTART ITS ECONOMY//EURO APPROACHES PARITY WITH THE DOLLAR//EUROPE ON HIGH ALERT RE GAS SHUTDOWN FROM NORDSTREAM 1//USA DATA: CREDIT CARD DATA INDICATES HUGE SLOWDOWN//USA CONFIDENCE LEVEL DROPPING//HUGE DROUGHT IN SOUTHWEST CONTINUES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1726.40 DOWN $9.40 

SILVER: $19.00 DOWN 16 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1726.35

SILVER: $18.94

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,761 DOWN 1739

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,560. DOWN 1940 

Platinum price: closing DOWN $26.55 to $849.75

Palladium price; closing down $113.45  at $2040.50

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,730.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/13/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 5
661 C JP MORGAN 21 19
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 5
880 C CITIGROUP 3


TOTAL: 27 27
MONTH TO DATE: 3,989

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 19/27

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT 27  NOTICE(S) FOR 2700 Oz//0.0839  TONNES)

total notices so far: 3989 contracts for 398,900 oz (12.4074 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

9 NOTICE(S) FILED 45,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2691 :  for 13,455,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER  DOWN 16 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE LV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 514.501 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1206 CONTRACTS TO 141,900   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  CONSIDERABLE $0.17 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.17) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -17

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 7 days, total 7472  contracts:  37,360 million oz  OR 5.34 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1067 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 37.360 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 37.360 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1206 DESPITE OUR  $0.17 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 425 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 65,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1631 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.155 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 9  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  45,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,795 CONTRACTS  TO 517,246 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —954 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 7300 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $4.45 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 19,389  OI CONTRACTS 60.316 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2594 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 517,246

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,389 CONTRACTS  WITH 16,795 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2594 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,389 CONTRACTS OR 60.316 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2594) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (16,795,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 19,389 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

39,156 CONTRACTS OR 3,915,600 OZ OR 121.77  TONNES 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6093 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 121.79 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  121.79/3550 x 100% TONNES  3,43% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 2238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 121.79 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1206 CONTRACT OI TO 141,883 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 425  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:425 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1206 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1631   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.15 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.17 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32629 PTS OR 0.97%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 279.46 OR 1.32%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 475.64 OR % 1.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7214    /Oil DOWN TO 99.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 102.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7214 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7374: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A POWERFUL SIZED 16,795 CONTRACTS TO 517,246 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GIGANTIC  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $4.45  IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  FAIR SIZED EFP (2594 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2594 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :2594 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2494 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 19,389  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2594 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 16,795  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.45.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (14.137),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 14.137 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.45) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN  OF 60.316 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (14.137 TONNES)

WE HAD -954 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 19,389 CONTRACTS OR  1,938,900  OZ OR 60.316 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 367,491/// strong/

final gold volumes/yesterday  245,877  /fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 12

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz64,302.000 oz
Malca
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today27  notice(s)
2700 OZ
0.0837 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)556 contracts 55,600 oz
1.729 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3989 notices
398900 OZ
12.4074 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: nil oz

1 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Malca: 64,302.000 oz (2,000 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 64,302.000   oz

ADJUSTMENTS:1 dealer to customer

JPMorgan:  18,624.714 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 583 contracts losing 387 contracts . We had

460 notices filed on Monday so we gained a strong 73  contracts or an additional 7300 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 16,029 contracts down to 326,880 contracts

Sept. gained 501 contracts to 2493 contracts.

We had 27 notice(s) filed today for  2700 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  21 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 27 contract(s) of which 19  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3989) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 583  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 27 x 100 oz per contract equals 454,500 OZ  OR 14.137 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3989) x 100 oz+   (583)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (27} x 100 oz} which equals 454,500 oz standing OR 14.137 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  14.137 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  32,703,359.863 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,121,229.199  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,582,130.664 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,138,597.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 439 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 12

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,110,359.190  oz
Delaware
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,123,337.438 
oz
CNT
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)9CONTRACT(S)
45,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)292 contracts (1,460,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2691 contracts 13,455,000, oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 586,398.800 oz

ii) Into CNT: 536,939,678 oz

total deposit:  1,123,337.438    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.185 million oz/339.531 million =51.57% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Delaware: 999.300 oz

ii) Out of loomis  1,109,359.890 oz

total withdrawal  1,110,359,190         oz

 adjustments: 4/dealer to customer

i) Brinks  2,092,312.540 oz

ii)HSBCL 5081.400 oz

iii) JPMorgan 2,463,373.400 oz

iv)Manfra: 801,672.886 oz

huge adjustment of 5.352 million oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.728 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 339.531 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 301 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 32.  WE HAD 45 NOTICES FILED

ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST GAINED 14 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1104

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 123 CONTRACTS UP TO 116,713 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for  45,000 oz

Comex volumes:54,317// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 41,347 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2691 x 5,000 oz = 13,455,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(xx) and the number of notices served upon today 9  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 2691 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (xx)  – number of notices served upon today (9) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 14,850,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1023.27 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A IWTHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 514.501 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

An excellent commentary from Mathew on gold rigging.  He emphasizes that Hambro has now finally admitted to the rigging

(Mathew Piepenburg/GATA)

Matthew Piepenburg: A gold industry veteran acknowledges the market rigging

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-07-11 10:35Section: Daily Dispatches

10:30a ET Monday, July 11, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Matterhorn Asset Management’s Matthew Piepenburg today joins the acclaim for gold industry veteran Peter Hambro’s recent declaration that the price of gold long has been suppressed with derivatives masterminded through the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks.

Piepenburg’s commentary is headlined “Paper Gold Price Manipulation — Rigged to Fail” and it’s posted at Matterhorn’s internet site, Gold Switzerland, ere:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Paper Gold Price Manipulation—Rigged to Fail

Matthew Piepenburg

By Matthew Piepenburg

July 11, 2022

The current and open fraud regarding the paper gold price in the COMEX market is now as plain to see as the open desperation in the global financial system, which is unraveling in real-time all around us.

As risk assets tumble foreseeably into bear territory before a headwind of deliberately rising rates, precious metals have seen headline-making falls as well.

Below, we explain why.

Tracking the Paper Gold Price —The Standard Answer

In prior reports, we’ve noted that precious metals typically behave sympathetically when markets tank; thereafter, gold then surges north. We saw this pattern in October of 2008 and March of 2020.

Furthermore, when a Hawkish Fed pursues a temporary yet face-saving policy of rate hiking and quantitative tightening, this makes the USD the relatively stronger horse in the global currency glue factory.

And a relative rise in the USD, of course, is a headwind to gold.

Explaining the Paper Gold Price —The Rigged Answer

But let’s get to the real heart of the matter, namely: Legalized paper gold price manipulation (i.e., fraud) in the COMEX market, a topic we’ve addressed more than once, here and here.

As we’ve openly argued for years, nothing embarrasses an otherwise discredited fiat currency like a rising gold price.

As I’ve described it, rising gold prices are a middle finger to debased currencies whose declining purchasing power are the DIRECT result of the failed and drunken monetary policies (i.e., mouse-click trillions) of a central bank near you.

Or as Ronan Manly more distinctly observed: “Gold to central bankers is like sun to vampires.”

And that, folks, is precisely why the big banks (under the direction of the BIS) are deliberately (and if law school serves me correctly) as well as fraudulently manipulating the paper gold price.

Facts vs. Manipulation

In the first quarter of 2022, we saw record high purchases of ETF gold, physical gold and central bank gold. Even Goldman Sachs’ head of commodity research was targeting $2400 gold this year.

Instead, the gold price has been falling as gold demand has been rising.

Huh?

It reminds me of 2008 when mortgages were defaulting en masse yet the ABX index for sub-prime mortgages was rising.

In short, complete (and temporary) manipulations were going on behind the curtains of a few wayward banks, including Morgan Stanley.

Today’s gold behavior (i.e., surreal manipulation) is no different and no less of an insult to the natural forces of supply and demand, which central bankers have attempted to destroy for well over a decade.

But the jig will soon be up on these masters of open fraud and Wall Street socialism.

The Paper Gold Price & The Horse’s Mouth

For now, and in case you fear I’m just acting as a “gold bug” apologist, let’s go straight to the horse’s mouth and examine the confessions and facts of open price manipulation in the precious metal markets.

And I swear, you really can’t make this stuff up, it’s just that obvious and distorted.

In a recent article by Peter Hambro published by the British news site, Reaction, a 3rd generation gold insider (Petropavlovsk, Bank Hambros) made the open secret of paper gold price manipulation abundantly clear and incontrovertible.

It’s also worth adding that Mr. Hambro’s entire career was that of an heir to a banking dynasty all too familiar with the insider machinations of the London bullion markets and London Stock Exchange.

In short, when Mr. Hambro discusses gold price manipulation, it’s worth listening.

A Chart Says a Trillion+ Words

More importantly, and for those who prefer facts over human confessions or “gold bug whining,” the following chart from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) clearly reveals the extreme extent by which just a handful of highly pocketed (and central bank supported) banks like JP Morgan and Citi can use extreme turns of derivative-based leverage to short (i.e., keep a permanent boot to the neck of) the paper gold price:

That rising bar on the far right is nothing more than crime scene evidence.

As Hambro remarks, a long history of media and bank supported mis-information has tried to keep a lid on the desperate attempts by just a small number of BIS minion banks like JP Morgan and Citi to effectively prevent free market price discovery on the paper gold price.

Despite thousands of daily long contracts (i.e., buy orders) in the OTC forward contract markets, if just 7-8 banks wish to use massive leverage (rising bar on the right) to short the same metal, they can effectively fix the gold price via artificial manipulation of derivatives contracts, to which only a small number of banks have access.

All of this open yet legalized fraud is managed by the central-banks central bank, namely the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements.

As Hambro states, and as taken from a recent article published by Ronan Manly:

”[s]ince 2018 the Financial Stability Desks at theworld’s central banks have followed theBank for International Settlements’ (BIS) instruction to hide the perception ofinflationby rigging the gold market.

Hambro further observes:

“With the help of the futures markets and the connivance of the Alchemists, the bullion traders – yes, that includes me, I was Deputy Managing Director of Mocatta & Goldsmid – managed to create an unshakeable perception that ounces of gold credited to an account with a bank or bullion dealer were the same as the real thing. ‘And much easier, old chap! You don’t have to store or insure it’”.

So, there you have it: Banks acting badly, very badly.

No shocker there…

The Greenlight from Big Brother

In essence, a handful of 7-8 LBMA institutions creates an almost limitless amount of synthetic paper representing unallocated gold (i.e., gold they don’t actually own) to short the paper gold market.

Why?

Again, because the central bankers mouse-clicking and hence destroying trillions worth of sovereign currencies (since Nixon took the gold chaperone away in 1971) are utterly terrified of a neutral and relatively fixed/scarce monetary metal like gold—i.e., real money.

Indeed, gold is money, the rest is just debt and toilet paper masquerading as currency.

Furthermore, the policy makers (or central controllers) are embarrassed to confess the inflationary consequences of their absurd money printing, and nothing reveals those consequences more than a naturally rising gold price.

Solution?

Easy: Lie about inflation and rig the paper gold price with leverage, derivatives and a greenlight from the BIS, aka: “Big Brother.”

In Rigged to Fail, I revealed how central bankers rig the bond and hence stock markets. Here we are just showing you how the same bankers rig the gold price to hide a failed currency market.

And if you want to put a handsome face to the farce, here’s an unforgettable one:

What About Don’t Fight the Fed?

Of course, most of you may be angry yet not the least bit surprised to see such rigging hiding in plain sight.

And even if your eyes have been (or now are) wide open, you’re also likely to say, “great, thanks for the news, but how the heck can we (or gold) fight all the central banks?”

Fair question.

As I’ve said, even if you know about a dirty cop, there’s almost no point in fighting one, right?

The Jig (Rig) is Up

We may be a bit jaded and realistic, but that doesn’t make us naive.  Gold will get the last and honest laugh over such a corrupt and dishonest “policy.”

As central banks continue to lose more and more credibility, and as investors become more and more fluent in, and aware of, the absurdity of the lies that have been sold to us for years by central bankers and MMT midgets who claim that a debt crisis can be solved with more debt, which is then paid for with trillions created out thin air, the system unwinds.

As the inevitable inflation crisis emerges from precisely such absurd “policies,” the central bankers can no longer blame the obvious and long-dated/repressed inflationary consequences of their drunken monetary policies on a virus or Putin.

Nor can they continue to peddle the lie that inflation was merely “transitory,”a fact we made clear long before Powell confessed it was not so.

Stated otherwise, more and more folks are catching on to the fraud.

The math plainly shows that expanding the broad money supply (and central bank balance sheets from $6T to $36T in just over a decade) is the real cause of the inflation in your neighborhood and the debasement in your wallet.

The First Cracks & the Last Straws

Geopolitical shifts, assassinated prime ministers, fired prime ministers, angry truck drivers, stormed capitals and Sri Lankan protestors are just the first tragic cracks in a growing social unrest driven by declining wealth and growing wealth disparity, all classic and historic symptoms and patterns of when a debt crisis leads to a political crisis, and sadly (and ultimately) more centralized controls over our markets and lives.

But as even Hambro observes, eventually the last straw breaks the back of a rigged camel, and the “straws blowing in the wind are often said to presage great tempests and I believe that {the chart above] shows just such a straw.”

Years of distorted, rigged and entirely reckless debt-and-print polices have made global economies and currencies weaker, not stronger.

The weaponized USD in the wake of the failed Putin sanctions is just further proof of how weak Western economies have become.

Dying Faith, Rising Gold

After years of profligate central bank policies, the so-called “developed economies,” which are now little more than glorified banana republics, are losing credibility, options and most importantly public faith.

This is critical.

In the end, when faith in a system ends, so does its currency.

We’ve written before how impossible it is to market time “the end of faith,” but charts like the one featured herein help to point out the rigging and hence accelerate the inevitable end to derivatives-based fraud, centralized price-fixing and, eventually, the OTC casino in particular.

Meanwhile, the current buy window for repressed precious metals is remarkable, and once central banks cripple the markets to their deflationary pain points, chaos will return, along with the inflationary money printers—all of which will send precious metals higher and fiat currencies and markets to their mean-reverting lows.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

There is no question that Ted Butler is right on this one:  The massive shorting of silver and gold is not by the commercial banks but by speculators.

This will end very badly for them.  The game will end if the commercials do not go back to the short side.

(Ted Butler)

Ted Butler: The perfect (and only) solution to shorting gold and silver

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-07-11 19:57Section: Daily Dispatches

7:55p ET Monday, July 11, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler speculates today that the London Metals Exchange’s default on its nickel contract is prompting bullion banks to close their short positions in the monetary metals. Butler’s analysis is headlined “The Perfect (and Only) Solution” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/perfect-and-only-solution

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
C{Powell@GATA.org

The Perfect (and Only) Solution

Ted Butler

July 11, 2022

A new article by Reuters concerning this year’s default in nickel on the London Metals Exchange help me to crystalize some new thoughts on the recent dramatic collapse in commodity prices of all types, certainly including silver and gold. I would describe my new thoughts as being fully in line with all the major themes I’ve presented over the years, but now with a clarity I hadn’t quite anticipated. Please bear with me for a bit, as I try to tie this in with the current quite pronounced melt down in the prices of metals and other commodities.

The Reuters article didn’t provide anything really new, except to more clearly quantify the actual losses and margin calls involved when the LME rescinded and busted nickel trades on March 8. Had the trades not been busted and trading in nickel not been suspended, the margin calls due from the big nickel short (and its brokers) would have amounted to close to $20 billion on that date, an astoundingly large sum.

When a customer can’t meet a margin call due to an adverse market movement, that customer’s brokers are obligated to meet the call to the clearing house from the brokerages’ own funds. If the brokers holding the customer’s account can’t come up with enough of their own cash to satisfy the margin call, then all the other members of the clearing (guaranteeing) association are called upon to pony up the required cash to meet the margin call and keep the exchange solvent. It is the association of clearing members on every commodity exchange that guarantees the performance of all derivatives contracts and gives the exchanges their legitimacy. So large were the margin calls in nickel to the big short seller, that the exchange decided to simply cancel the trades and suspend trading, as it became obvious it would drag the LME into overall default; thereby suddenly ending 140 years of LME existence.

In order to avoid having the LME suddenly cease to exist, which would be the worst outcome possible, the exchange chose to cancel the trades and suspend trading, the next worst outcome. While I am not condoning the LME’s actions in any way, I do understand why it took the actions it did take. But nowhere in the Reuters article was it mentioned what the real problem was and how the LME failed to anticipate that problem.

Not to sound like a broken record, but the problem in LME nickel was the existence of a concentrated short position that was so large so as to endanger the entire exchange when the size of the position became obvious to all. The LME never should have allowed the nickel short position to grow as large as it got. No doubt, as the massive short position was established, its large size artificially depressed nickel prices initially, just as it caused prices to soar when it became obvious the short seller was in trouble – necessitating the busting of trades and suspension of trading. Had the LME properly performed its regulatory role, it never would have allowed the nickel short position to grow as large and concentrated as it did grow. Ignorance of the short position’s existence is hardly a legitimate defense by the LME.

As the world’s leading base metals exchange, a sudden and complete closure of the LME and the ripple effects that would have had, most likely, would have severely impacted the UK and financial systems elsewhere. On the other hand, since trading on the LME is limited to base metals, any financial system fallout would be a drop in the bucket compared to any similar problems that may arise at the CME Group, which, in addition to trading precious metals and copper, also offers trading in the widest variety of financial products, including stock and bond futures, currencies, energies, foodstuffs and grains. It would be easier to list the products that the CME doesn’t trade.

As such, the CME Group is very much a member of a highly select list of financial institutions officially considered to be systemically important, or too big to fail. Banking giants like JPMorgan, Bank of America and others, like giant asset manager BlackRock are also elite members of financial institutions considered to be systemically important. Should any of the financial institutions on this elite list ever fail, no doubt there would be serious implications for the financial system itself, both for the US and the world in general. Therefore, there’s no real comparison between the LME and the CME Group, in terms of what an actual failure of or contract default in each would mean to the financial system. In the order of financial system importance, with a higher number being more important – if the LME was a “1”, the CME would be a “100”.

That’s why, if the inadequate regulation on the LME in the case of not dealing with the concentrated short position in nickel before it was too late was serious, then any such failure by the CME, say in COMEX silver or gold, would be so much more serious. The LME defaulting was serious, but a default on the COMEX would be catastrophic for the CME and the financial system.  Plus, I don’t recall hearing of any prior concerns of a massive concentrated short position in LME nickel before the default, whereas I have been screaming from the roof tops about COMEX silver having the largest concentrated short position of any commodity in real world terms for decades.

Simply put, the concentrated short position in COMEX silver and its resolution, is the most important factor, bar none, as anyone who has read any of my articles would attest. With that preamble, I would like to come full circle and further refine my take on how I see the concentrated short position in COMEX silver (and gold) getting resolved, after further digesting what occurred in LME nickel.

First, I must raise a set of circumstances so coincidental, so as to be nearly impossible to be purely coincidental. The default and busting of trades in LME nickel took place on March 8, 2022.  On that same day, the price of gold hit its all-time high of $2080, while the price of silver hit $27.50, the highest it had been since June 2021. Since those price highs, gold has fallen more than $350 (17%), while silver has fallen by a much steeper $8.50 (30%).

Also, in the Commitments of Traders (COT) report for positions as of that same day, March 8, the concentrated short position of the 4 largest traders indicated a gold short position of 188,358 contracts (18.8 million oz) and a concentrated short position in silver of 54,187 contracts (271 million oz), with all the concentrated shorts held by commercial traders.  As it turns out, this was the largest concentrated short position for COMEX gold since March 2020 and for silver since June 2021.

Interestingly, since March 8, the commercial-only concentrated short position in gold has fallen by more than 90,000 contracts (45%), while the true commercial-only portion of the concentrated silver short position has fallen by 23,000 contracts (42%), as of the COT report for positions held as of July 5, 2022.

My take on all this is that, while I’m not into deep conspiracies, the events of March 8, which culminated in the LME nickel default by the largest concentrated short seller, sent a powerful message to the concentrated shorts in COMEX gold and silver futures that they had better get their house in order and reduce their short positions pronto. My hundreds or thousands of allegations and complaints of concentrated short selling in COMEX silver and gold may have been brushed aside, but seeing the LME actually default due to concentrated short selling appears to have woken up the big COMEX commercial shorts. Either that, or the events of March 8 were simply some innocent coincidences.

Moreover, what I am now contending, namely, that the big commercial shorts in COMEX gold and silver have put in motion a plan to buy back and cover as many of their concentrated short positions as possible, looks to me to be the perfect and only real solution available to them. And the only way for the big commercial shorts to pull this off successfully would be to rig a market selloff of the ages – which is what we have just witnessed. Let’s face it, had the COMEX silver and gold concentrated short sellers waited too long and tried to buy on higher prices, as did the big short in LME nickel, it was likely there would have been a default on the COMEX – with much more negative fallout given the systemic importance of the CME.

In essence, the big commercial shorts on the COMEX have offloaded their short positions, largely to the managed money technical funds. As I’ve been reporting, the managed money technical funds are enjoying their best six months, performance-wise, in decades and, ironically, the money they’ve made has allowed them to take even bigger positions than otherwise. Of course, if it does turn out that the managed money traders do prevail when their current short positions are finally bought back (which assumes the commercials will sell at lower prices), then that will be confirmed in future COT reports. However, to this point, the managed money traders have never collectively made money whenever they have gone heavily short silver or gold.

At times like this in the past, when prices on a wide variety of commodities decline markedly in price due to technical fund selling, I recall suggesting the “silver disease” was spreading to other commodities. I’d define the “silver disease” as the uneconomic selling and selling short of derivatives contracts when there were no corresponding obvious signs of physical oversupply. Nothing I see indicates any sudden physical oversupply of crude oil, or grains or metals – yet prices are collapsing, as if there was physical oversupply. That’s because the managed money traders trade on price momentum, not the commodity’s actual fundamentals.

The only plausible explanation for the sudden spate of pronounced price weakness across a broad base of commodities is derivatives selling and short selling by traders motivated by price momentum. The selling is real enough in that it depresses prices, but not in the least bit economically legitimate because it’s as far from legitimate hedging as is possible. No silver miner would be looking to lock in the sharply lower prices of late. Instead, this has all the makings of a massive hoodwinking by the large commercial interests which dominate most markets in which the technical and price momentum traders operate.

I would place the blame for allowing speculative traders to massively plow onto the short side on the CFTC, because the selling was so large and purely speculative that it violates the reason why regulated futures trading exists in the first place (to allow legitimate hedging). But when the inevitable turn for higher prices occurs, the folly of the regulators allowing such large speculative selling will flip to much higher prices as the speculative short sellers rush to buy back what I consider to be their ill-advised short sales. The CFTC, essentially, abandoned the idea of legitimate speculative position limits a couple of years ago and the markets are now dealing with the aftermath of the agency’s failure.

I also can’t help but be further convinced, if my musings of the big concentrated COMEX commercial shorts getting a wake-up call as a result of the default in LME nickel are correct, that these big commercial shorts will be quite reluctant to put their heads back into the lion’s mouth by heavily shorting again. I know I have said it too many times in the past that the big shorts would stand aside and not short into future price rallies, not to acknowledge that that possibility exists – but that doesn’t take into account the default in LME nickel and what has transpired with the concentrated short positions in COMEX gold and silver since March 8.  The good news is that whatever the big COMEX commercial shorts do or don’t do in the future will be recorded in future COT reports.

Therefore, the stage is set for a price explosion in silver and gold like never before. All the (former) big commercial concentrated shorts have to do to ensure the price powder keg goes off, is absolutely nothing – with nothing defined as not selling short aggressively on the next rally.

Ted Butler

July 11, 2022

END

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

STEVE BROWN…

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7214

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7374

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN AT 279.45 PTS OR  1.37%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 475.64 OR 1.77%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  108.07/Euro FALLS TO 1.0042

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.239/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.78/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.144%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.24% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.24%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.50//

3j Gold at $1736.60 silver at: 18.91  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  0  AND 7/10        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.20

3m oil into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and  102 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.78DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9815– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9900well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.926 DOWN 7  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.121  DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.37

Futures, Yields, Oil And Gold Slide As German Confidence Plummets To 2011 Lows, Euro Hits Parity

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 07:59 AM

US index futures, global markets, Treasury yields, bitcoin and oil all fell on Tuesday as the dollar continued its relentless ascent to  levels just shy of the March 2020 global crash record high…

… highlighting pervasive trader unease about the economic outlook as high inflation and a looming recession are set to unleash a catastrophic global recession coupled with a worldwide dollar shortage, now with the added boost of China’s renewed struggles with Covid. S&P and Nasdaq 100 emini futures dropped about 0.5% each having slumped as much as 0.9% earlier, as traders brace for an ugly Q2 earnings season which may provide clues on how companies are weathering inflation and recession concerns.

The US 10-year Treasury yield falls to about 2.91% amid a broad-based flight to safety; bonds also rallied in Europe. German bonds surged, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to the lowest since May, after data showed investor confidence plunged to a 2011 low.

As shown above, the dollar rose just shy of record highs last seen at the height of the 2020 market panic over Covid and the yen strengthened, underlining investor caution. The euro meanwhile briefly touched parity (technically, it was 1.00003 but that’s semantics for purists who have nothing better to do) hammered by the region’s energy crisis and acute recession fears.

Dollar strength will not only “affect this quarter’s earnings, but more likely it’s going to affect the revenue generation outlook for the next couple of quarters and that, I think, is a big problem,” Kimberly Forrest, founder and chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said on Bloomberg Radio.

PepsiCo, one of the first major corporations to report, rose in premarket trading after lifting its revenue forecast. The soft-drinks maker said demand remained robust despite inflation, though it expected headwinds from the strong dollar. Bank stocks, meanwhile, were lower in premarket trading amid a broader slump in risk assets. Cryptocurrency stocks drop in premarket trading as Bitcoin drops below $20,000 in its fourth straight day of declines amid a stronger dollar. In corporate news, LoanDepot said it will cut about 2,000 additional staff by the end of the year. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Gap (GPS US) shares fall 6.4% in premarket trading after the apparel retailer fired CEO Sonia Syngal and said it expects rising costs and deepening discounts to erase this quarter’s operating profit.
  • American Express (AXP US) shares are down 2.2% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the stock, as well as on Capital One (COF US), to equal- weight from overweight as inflation takes a larger share of household disposable incomes.
  • STORE Capital (STOR US) shares fall 3.3% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley downgrades it to underweight from equal-weight and cuts National Retail Properties (NNN US) to equal-weight from overweight, saying that US triple net REITs could see a headwind from the rising cost of capital.
  • Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA US) shares are up 9% in premarket trading after exchange-traded funds managed by Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management bought 860,480 shares in the company.

Meanwhile, the latest Fed commentary highlighted both the central bank’s hawkishness and the risks that come with aggressive interest-rate hikes. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the US economy can copewith higher interest rates and repeated his support for another jumbo move this month. Fed Bank of Kansas City President Esther George, who dissented last month against the central bank’s 75 basis-point rate increase, cautioned that rushing to tighten policy could backfire.

European bourses are also deep in the red. Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.7% with the Stoxx Europe 600 sliding for a second day, though it pared the decline with utilities outperforming as EDF jumped after a report that the French government will pay a premium to take control of the electricity company. The DAX lags, dropping 0.8%. Banks, travel and autos are the worst performing sectors. German bonds surged, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to the lowest since May, after data showed investor confidence plunged to a level not seen since the sovereign debt crisis in 2011.

Asian stocks fell to a new two-year low as China’s technology shares continued to face selling pressure amid regulatory jitters and a resurgence of Covid cases in the nation.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 1.5%, dragged by tech and consumer discretionary shares. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 11% from a June high to enter a technical correction as regulatory fines for the country’s tech giants continued to damp sentiment.

In China, investors are concerned more Covid lockdowns may lie ahead as Beijing continues with a strategy of mass testing and mobility curbs. Chinese benchmarks took a hit from renewed lockdown fears from a fresh virus outbreak in Shanghai. Japan and Taiwan were among the region’s worst performing markets on lingering concerns of a global economic slowdown. Market participants are hoping that key US inflation data due Wednesday and China’s GDP figures on Friday will provide clues on the global economy’s direction. Asia’s stock benchmark has slumped 20% this year amid worries about higher interest rates and the prospect of an economic downturn.  Investor sentiment continued to weaken in Asia despite remaining positive in China, said Olivier d’Assier, the head of APAC applied research at Qontigo. “Within an inflationary background, hopes of continued high profit margins in developed markets can only be balanced with fears of a margin squeeze among the developing world’s supply chain.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a second day as the greenback was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid rising recession concerns. The euro fell to a low of 1.00003 per dollar but struggled to go below parity. Options traders are still preparing for life below this psychological support level. The pound lagged all of its Group-of-10 peers. UK retailers reported another drop in sales, while economists see the risk of a UK recession in the next 12 months at almost 50-50. Australian and New Zealand fell gradually. Iron ore prices sank to a seven- month low, with the demand outlook dimming on fears China may again impose strict Covid-19 curbs that hurt construction activity.

In rates, Treasuries were underpinned following gains for bunds and gilts after German ZEW expectations gauge dropped to -53.8 vs -40.5 estimate. Treasury yields richer by up to 7.5bp across intermediates, flattening 2s10s spread by 1.4bp on the day to -10.3bp, deepest inversion since 2007; German 10s outperform Treasuries by ~5bp, gilts by ~7bp. German 10-year yields dropped to lowest since May, dragging Treasury yields lower. German curve bull-flattens, richening 12-14bps across the back end. Gilts bull-steepen, with short-dated yields dropping over 15bps. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund widening ~3bps to 199bps. In bond auctions we get a $33BN reopening of 10-year notes at 1pm ET follows good demand for Monday’s 3-year new issue, which stopped 0.5bp through. WI 10-year yield around 2.92% is ~11bp richer than June result, which tailed by 1.2bp.

Crude futures decline. WTI falls ~2.5% to trade near $101.60. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 3.1% while LME aluminum gains 0.3%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,735/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% near $19. Bitcoin drops over 3.5% to trade back below $20,000.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include the US NFIB small business optimism index for June. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Barkin and the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, earnings releases today include PepsiCo.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,835.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 413.46
  • MXAP down 1.3% to 154.65
  • MXAPJ down 1.3% to 508.44
  • Nikkei down 1.8% to 26,336.66
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,883.30
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 20,844.74
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,281.47
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 54,067.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,606.28
  • Kospi down 1.0% to 2,317.76
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.16%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.0008
  • Brent Futures down 2.1% to $104.83/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,736.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.43% to 108.48

Top Overnight News from Bloomnerg

  • Investor confidence in Germany’s economy slumped to the lowest since 2011 as the country faces the growing prospect of a recession and risks mount that it’s shut off from Russian energy supplies
  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen agreed with her Japanese counterpart Tuesday that volatile exchange rates pose a risk, and pledged to consult and cooperate as appropriate
  • A global squeeze on energy supply that’s triggered crippling shortages and sent power and fuel prices surging may get worse, according to the head of the International Energy Agency

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly negative after the weak performance across global counterparts as China’s COVID flare-up and Europe’s energy concerns added to the headwinds for the growth outlook. ASX 200 bucked the trend with the index kept afloat by defensives although the upside was capped by weak consumer and business confidence data. Nikkei 225 underperformed as the Japanese currency attempted to compose itself from recent rapid depreciation and with automakers pressured after Toyota flagged a potential cut to its output plan citing a chip shortage and COVID impact. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower amid the ongoing COVD concerns which overshadowed reports that China’s authorities will increase financial support for manufacturers, as well as the recent stronger than expected aggregate financing and loans data.

Top Asian News

  • China is to lockdown Wugang city in Henan for 3 days due to 1 COVID case, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they will conduct necessary economic steps taking prices and economy into account, while he added that they are watching the FX market even more closely while working with the BoJ and will take necessary steps against the FX market with FX authorities from other nations, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Finance Minister told US Treasury Secretary Yellen that Japan is concerned about the rapid JPY weakening recently; watching currency markets with a sense of urgency; agreed to continue consulting in foreign exchange.

European bourses are pressured in a broad China-COVID driven risk move, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%; alongside known concerns and a dismal ZEW. Stateside, futures are lower across the board with the NQ somewhat more choppy than peers amid pronounced rate activity this morning and on PEP earnings. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed and feature IT as the laggard while Energy is green despite benchmark pricing amid outperformance in EDF.
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.86 (exp. 1.74), Revenue 20.2bln (exp. 19.51bln). FY Revenue view 82.7bln (exp. 82.72bln)

Top European News

  • UK’s Heathrow airport is imposing a capacity cap of 100k departing passengers a day, until September 11th. Beleive further action is needed now; cap means some summer journeys will be rescheduled, relocated or cancelled. Asks airline partners to stop the sale of summer tickets in order to limit the passenger impact.
  • Former UK Chancellor Sunak confirmed his commitment to fiscal discipline and will stand firm on taxes until he has ‘gripped inflation’, according to FT.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) -53.8 vs. Exp. -38.3 (Prev. -28.0); ZEW Survey Expectations (Jul) -51.1 (Prev. -28.0)
  • ZEW: current major concerns about energy supply, ECB’s announced rate hikes, restrictions in China, led to a deterioration in the outlook; economic situation significantly more negative than in previous month, experts further lower their already unfavourable forecast for the next six months.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds breach recent resistance levels, with Bunds up to new July highs at 153.48 after a bleak German ZEW survey
  • Gilts back on the 116.00 handle from a 115.04 Liffe low awaiting more comments from BoE Governor Bailey and 10 year T-note towards top of 119-03/118-09+ range pre-USD 33bn refunding leg
  • DMO’s 2032 tap well received and German Schatz covered, but results mixed overall

FX

  • Pound underperforms awaiting UK political developments as Labour Party prepares no-confidence motion against Tories; Cable on the cusp of 1.1800, while EUR/GBP rebounds over 0.8450.
  • Euro prods parity vs Dollar before and after dire German ZEW survey, while DXY breaches 108.500 amidst broad Buck gains.
  • Yen regroups as risk sentiment remains sour and yields retreat further, with Japan’s Finance Minister also raising concern about rapid decline, USD/JPY closer to 137.00 than 137.50+ top and Monday’s 137.75 peak.
  • Loonie and Nokkie recoil alongside crude prices, but Kiwi holds up better than Aussie ahead of anticipated 50bp RBNZ rate hike on Wednesday, USD/CAD back up near 1.3050, EUR/NOK propped around 10.2600, NZD/USD holding just above 0.6100 and AUD/USD sub-0.6750.
  • Yuan breaks below recent range as China’s Covid situation continues to deteriorate – USD/CNH and USD/CNY probe 6.7500 and 6.7350 respectively.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent have extended on APAC pressure as the demand-side of the equation remains sensitive to lockdowns with the OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO due.
  • Currently, benchmarks are in relative proximity to their respective USD 101.06/bbl and USD 104.35/bbl lows.
  • IEA’s Birol said the world is in the midst of the first energy crisis and it has not seen the worst of the energy crisis, according to Bloomberg.
  • US senior official warned that a failure to implement a proposed price cap on Russian oil with the exemption of purchases below the cap, could see oil prices increase to around USD 140/bbl, while the official added that Treasury Secretary Yellen will speak to Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki on the proposed Russian oil price cap, according to Reuters.
  • US Department of Energy announced a contract for 14 companies to purchase crude oil from the SPR with deliveries to take place between August 16th to September 30th, according to Reuters.
  • China’s NDRC says retail prices of gasoline and diesel will be cut by CNY 360/tonne and CNY 345/tonne respectively from July 13th.
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan responded that there is a capacity for further steps that can be taken when questioned about oil output, according to Reuters.
  • Spot gold is relatively resilient despite broader price action, and the yellow metal is torn between COVID-driven haven allure and the USD’s ongoing advances.

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: June SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.5, est. 92.5, prior 93.1

Central Banks

  • 12:30: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the ‘Recession Question’

Government:

  • President Biden will meet with Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at 11:15am ET
  • House Jan. 6 select committee will hold a hearing on the extremists involved in the assault at 1pm ET

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s so hot, even at 5am, that I have two fans pointing at me as I type this. Electric ones not two people that have kindly voted for me in the II survey. Never has a commute to the office and the lure of aircon been so alluring. When we renovated 3-4 years ago we considered having some aircon fitted but decided that given the cost we would forgo that for the couple of days a year where Britain sweltered. Given that this spell looks set to last a couple of weeks I may sleep in the office, especially as the kids have now broken up and are running riot at home.

The heat may have also tired markets out after a mini rally so far in July. The last 24 hours has seen sentiment become more gloomy once again as investors looked forward to multiple data releases and earnings reports this week that’ll set the stage for some important central bank meetings over the next couple of weeks. The US CPI report will be the main highlight tomorrow, but we shouldn’t forget the start of the Q2 earnings season either, which will shed some light on how corporates are faring as the market narrative has flirted with the view that the US economy might already be in a recession. One bit of “good” news yesterday was the NY Fed’s long-run consumer inflation expectations series which showed a decent dip and helped encourage a big rally in bonds as the tug of war in the asset class continues.

More on that later but equities didn’t get that memo as they lost ground on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday with the S&P 500 shedding -1.15% by the close of trade, in what looked like a classic risk off rotation, with only Utilities and Real Estate higher, and the latter only barely up (+0.01%). Tech stocks led the declines, with the NASDAQ down by -2.26% whilst the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks saw an even larger -4.52% decline as all 10 companies in the index lost ground. Along with a sour risk day, mega-cap shares were probably sluggish following the news over the weekend that Elon Musk would be pulling out of his Twitter deal. Small-caps were another underperformer, with the Russell 2000 down -2.11%, whereas the Dow Jones experienced a more modest -0.52% loss. Meanwhile in Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-0.50%) and Germany’s DAX (-1.40%) seeing decent losses of their own.

Speaking of Europe, all eyes are on what’s going to happen with the gas situation now that the Nord Stream pipeline is undergoing scheduled 10-day maintenance. European natural gas futures (-6.10%) did come down yesterday after rising for 4 consecutive weeks, thanks to the news at the very end of last week that Canada would return a turbine for the Nord Stream pipeline after their government issued a “time-limited and revocable” permit that removed it from sanctions. That said there are still significant jitters as to whether the pipeline will be turned back on again after the maintenance concludes, which meant that the Euro itself fell even closer to parity against the US Dollar. In fact, the euro closed near its weakest levels of the day at $1.0040, and has hit a fresh low of $1.0010 as we go to press as markets face up to the prospect of what a full cut-off of Russian gas would mean for the European economy. Speaking to DB’s Peter Sidorov yesterday, he tells me that the ambiguity over gas may linger as even if Russia did need this turbine part to restore stronger gas flows, the technical logistics may mean it would take an extra week or two to integrate into the pipeline. So the uncertainty may linger until early August.

Another factor behind the Euro’s decline recently has been the growing divergence in interest rates between the Fed (who’ve already hiked by 150bps this year) and the ECB (who haven’t even begun yet and with worries as to how far they will get). If the upcoming moves this month are in line with our economists’ (and market) expectations, then that divergence will only grow as the Fed hikes by 75bps for a second consecutive meeting, while the ECB commences the hiking cycle with a much smaller 25bps move. However, yesterday brought some more dovish news from the Fed, with Kansas City President George warning against moving too fast on rate hikes, saying that moving “too fast raises the prospect of oversteering”. That may not be too surprising given that George was the only FOMC voters to dissent from the 75bps majority last month in favour of a smaller 50bps hike. George also warned that the extra volatility the Fed injects into the market when its policy path is so uncertain may hurt Treasury market functioning, which seems like she was not a fan changing policy guidance with such short notice before the June FOMC, perhaps another reason for her dissent. Elsewhere, as discussed at the top, we also received the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations for June. And whilst 1-year ahead inflation expectations hit a record high since the series began at 6.8%, 3-year ahead expectations came down from 3.9% in May to 3.6% in June, and 5-year ahead expectations fell from 2.9% to 2.8%.

That newsflow along with the more general risk-off tone helped support a major rally in Treasuries, with 10yr yields falling -8.8bps to 2.99%, as both inflation breakevens and real rates fell on the day. There was also a fresh flattening in the yield curve, with the 2s10s closing in inversion territory for a 5th day running, finishing at -8.5bps, which isn’t such a good sign as a recessionary indicator, and the length of the inversion now puts it ahead of the 3-day inversion back in late-March/early April, so this is getting harder to dismiss as just a blip. Furthermore, even the Fed’s preferred yield curve indicator of the near-term forward spread flattened to just 114bps, which is something we haven’t seen since early January after peaking at 270bps on April 1. This morning yields on 10yr USTs are another -3.34 bps lower at 2.954% as I type.

In Europe there was much the same pattern, with yields on 10yr bunds (-9.9bps), OATs (-10.3bps) and BTPs (-7.3bps) all moving lower. But the risk-off move meant there was a widening in peripheral spreads, and the iTraxx Crossover was another to widen (+8.6bps to 585bps), thus reversing three consecutive moves lower.

The losses in US and European equities are echoing in Asian this morning. The nervousness is not being helped by news of another Covid-19 surge in China as the renewed outbreak is raising fears of more lockdowns (see below). As I type, the Nikkei (-1.68%) is leading losses across the region followed by the Hang Seng (-1.57%) and the Kospi (-1.37%). In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite and (-0.83%) and CSI (-0.74%) are also lower. Outside of Asia, equity futures in DMs point to further losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.54%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.68%) and DAX (-0.71%) all weaker. Oil prices are also lower overnight as recession fears and China’s Covid curbs weigh on demand prospects. As we go to press, Brent futures are -1.46% at $105.54/bbl and WTI futures -1.68% at $102.34/bbl.

Over in China, Shanghai city reported 59 new infections for Monday, above 50 for the fourth day in a row thus prompting the city authorities to another mass testing effort after finding a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant.

Early morning data showed that producer prices in Japan rose +0.7% m/m in June (v/s +0.6% expected) and against a +0.1% rise in May.

In the UK, the ruling Conservative party are opening nominations for the next leadership today, with voting starting tomorrow. MPs will then, through a series of voting rounds over the next week choose their favourite two candidates, from which point the party membership will make their decision and with the new PM expected to be announced on September 5.

There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, but Italian retail sales for May grew by +1.9% (vs. +0.4% expected), and the prior month was also revised positively.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German ZEW survey for July, as well as the US NFIB small business optimism index for June. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Barkin and the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, earnings releases today include PepsiCo.

TUESDAY /MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32629 PTS OR 0.97%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 279.46 OR 1.32%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 475.64 OR % 1.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7214    /Oil DOWN TO 99.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 102.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7214 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7374: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

China does the opposite to the West by providing huge credit growth starting in June.  However it is still not enough

(zerohedge)

China Credit Growth Explodes To 4th Highest Ever In June… It’s Still Not Enough

MONDAY, JUL 11, 2022 – 11:20 PM

After several months of surprisingly, almost painfully low credit creation in China – the country that for the past decade was the sole global growth dynamo – in June Beijing has finally redeemed itself.

In June, China’s total social financing, RMB loans and M2 all came in far above expectations, with the rapid credit growth in June likely reflecting a combination of strong fiscal policy support (record-high single-month government bond issuance), further easing in credit supply (PBOC urged banks to accelerate loan extensions) and recovery of credit demand on easing Covid restrictions and activity growth recovery.

June total social financing (TSF) beat expectations again after showing a strong rebound in May, and rose by 5.17 trillion CNY, the fourth highest monthly increase on record. The sequential growth of TSF stock accelerated to 15.4% mom annualized in June, from 12.8% in May. Overall CNY loans growth also accelerated and grew 13.7% M/M annualized from 13.0% in May. M2 year-on-year growth increased to 11.4% yoy in June, vs. 11.1% in May, and expanded by 14.8% in month-over-month annualized terms, vs. 15.6% in May. Here are the numbers:

  • New CNY loans: RMB 2810bn in June vs. consensus: RMB 2400bn. Outstanding CNY loan growth: 11.2% yoy in June (13.7% SA ann mom, estimated by GS); May: 11% yoy (13% SA ann mom).
  • Total social financing: RMB 5170bn in June, vs. consensus: RMB 4200bn.
  • TSF stock growth was 10.8% yoy in June, faster than the 10.5% in May. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock accelerated to 15.4% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from 12.8% in May.
  • M2: 11.4% yoy in June vs. Bloomberg consensus: 11% yoy. May: 11.1% yoy (+15.6% SA ann mom estimated by GS).

And visually:

Among major TSF components, shadow banking credit showed a small net increase in June (entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills grew by RMB 99bn in June, vs. the RMB 20bn increase in May, seasonally adjusted). Based on loans to different sectors, the rebound in loan growth was broad-based. Corporate mid-to-long term loan growth was 24.8% vs. 12.4% mom annualized in May. Corporate bill financing showed a small contraction of 0.7% vs May, perhaps due to policymakers’ guidance and concerns over arbitrage via bill financing. On loans to households, total household loans expanded by 10.2% month-over-month annualized, vs. an increase of 3.9% in May. Household medium-to-long term loans, which are mostly mortgages, grew 7.7% month-over-month annualized in June, vs. 2.6% in May. Government bond net issuance surged to RMB 1.6 trillion (NSA basis), the highest single-month net issuance on record, as policymakers required local governments to finish special bond issuance by the end of 1H. Corporate bond net issuance was RMB 327bn in June (after seasonal adjustment).

M2 growth also surprised to the upside at 11.4% Y/Y, the highest since late 2016. Fiscal deposits declined by RMB 437bn in June, broadly similar to the change in June 2021 despite record-high government bond net issuance, implying very strong fiscal spending in June.

According to Goldman, detailed breakdown of June credit data pointed to improvement of credit demand – corporate medium-to-long term loan growth accelerated in June while bill financing slowed. Household loan growth also improved although short-term household loans (consumer credit) grew faster than medium-to-long term household loans (mostly mortgages). That said, the bank believes that similar to previous outlier credit creation months, broad credit growth could slow in the near term after the rapid growth in June, barring additional major policy easing measures such as additional local government special bond issuance, or more credit support from policy banks.

That’s the not so good news, because as Bloomberg’s Simon White writes, “China’s nascent recovery will remain muted, restraining further equity upside, until there is a clear sign measures of liquidity are sustainably turning up.”

Taking a step back, White notes that China’s total social financing (TSF) increased in June as the effects from the country’s incrementally rising credit and fiscal easing feed through. In May, the PBoC urged banks to lend more, while last week the Ministry of Finance announced it was considering allowing local governments to issue a chunky $220 billion of special government bonds in the second half, an unprecedented rise.

In any case, the 12-month sum of the TSF is now rising almost 10% on a year-on-year basis, after spending most of the past 15 months in contraction territory.

Echoing Goldman, the Bloomberg Markets Live strategist notes that while this would normally be a pretty unassailable sign of a strong boost to growth ahead, in China that is not necessarily the case: “Given banks are effectively arms of the state, government-directed financing means that new credit finds its way most easily to SOEs, who are often not the companies most in need. This means the growth multiplier from new credit is lower than if it was extended more broadly to the private enterprises that need it most.”

As White notes, the kind of stimulus in China that has a more pronounced impact on growth is so-called “flood-like stimulus.” This is broad-based, unfettered easing with limited control from the authorities where the credit created ends up. It was the flood-like stimulus in the mid-2010s that led to rampant expansion in the shadow banking sector that eventually prompted China to pull back on easing for the sake of financial stability and greater state control. As a result, “there has been little appetite for flood-like stimulus since then, with officials stating as lately as June that such easing is not on the cards.”

That said, the constraints on state-mandated lending mean that TSF growth has a poor relationship with economic growth. A much better relationship is seen with real M1 growth. This rose strongly in previous episodes when stimulus was flood-like, but the modest upturn this year looks already to be sputtering.

As White concludes, “this means economic growth in China is likely to continue to incrementally improve, but remain muted and at risk of stalling” especially since Covid remains an ongoing headache for the stock market, as today’s news showed. In short, after an impressive 20% bounce off the lows, the market has hit resistance. But much bad news is already priced in. Yet, it is difficult to see how we get the next leg up in the stock market while real M1 growth remains subdued…

END

CHINA/RUSSIA/BRICS

In its meeting on June 23/2022, China and Russia want to replace the uSA dollar with BRICS currencies.  Probably a basket of those currencies. However the Brazilian real, Indian rupee and the South African Rand are week and nobody would want to hold these currencies

(Graceffo/EpochTimes)

China And Russia Want To Replace US Dollar With BRICS Currencies

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

BRICS members call for cross-border payment in BRICS currencies to challenge the U.S. dollar.

(From L-R) Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pose for a family picture during the 11th BRICS Summit in Brasilia, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2019. (Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images)

The BRICS—an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—held a summit on June 23. The meeting, chaired by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, was part of a lengthy series of BRICS cooperation events, which began on June 6 with the second finance ministers and central bank governors meeting and ended with the second meeting of the committee of senior energy officials on June 28.

In his opening remarks, Xi stated, “We should also expand BRICS cooperation on cross-border payment and credit rating to facilitate trade, investment, and financing among our countries.”

He went on to reaffirm the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) commitment to working together with the BRICS nations to achieve the CCP dream of the Global Development Initiative (GDI).

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented the GDI to the United Nations in April 2022 as a CCP-led global development initiative. It was welcomed by the U.N. and has received messages of support from 100 nations. The Group of Friends of the GNI was established on the U.N. platform. So far, more than 50 countries have joined. Ostensibly, utilizing a China-led, non-dollar payment system would help facilitate the development the CCP is calling for.

The XIV BRICS Summit Beijing Declaration issued on June 23, which establishes the goals for the coming year, includes continued collaboration on “the BRICS Payments Task Force (BPTF) as a platform for exchanging experience and knowledge, and welcomes the central banks’ further cooperation on the payments track.”

Both Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin called for payment alternatives to decrease the U.S. dollar’s dominance in international trade and to reduce U.S. control of the SWIFT system.

A sign indicating digital yuan, also referred to as e-CNY, is pictured at a shopping mall in Shanghai, China, on May 5, 2021. (Aly Song/File Photo/Reuters)

According to the Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times, bankers and economists in BRICS countries have recommended that the bloc “expand national currency settlements and lending to counter the US’ weaponization of the dollar.”

The Russian news agency TASS reported on June 22 that in Putin’s address at the BRICS forum, he called for developing an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies.

Sergey Storchak, chief banker of Russian bank VEB.RF, told Global Times on June 21, “The BRICS and other interested nations need to talk about setting up their own independent global financial system – whether it would be based on the Chinese currency or they will agree on something different.” VERB.RF is one of the sanctioned entities that has been excluded from the U.S. SWIFT international payment system.

Xi, Putin, and the bankers from VEB.RF have three basic complaints regarding currency. They resent the dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. They do not want the dollar to be the currency of international settlement. And they are threatened by the necessity to transact international payments through the U.S. SWIFT system, which depends on U.S. banks.

The reason why countries use the U.S. dollar in the international settlement is because commodities such as oil are priced in dollars, and because the dollar is a stable currency that is readily convertible everywhere in the world. None of the BRICS currencies are considered fully convertible. The Chinese yuan is a reserve drawing rights (SDR) currency of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), officially making it an international currency, but even the yuan has limited convertibility.

Central banks around the world hold U.S. dollars as a major part of their foreign currency reserves not only due to the stability and convertibility of the dollar, but also because of its usefulness in settling international trade. The South African rand, the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee, and the Russian ruble are all relatively weak currencies; therefore, other countries do not wish to hold these as reserves.

SWIFT logo is seen in this illustration taken in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Feb. 25, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration via Reuters)

If international settlement agreements could be reached among BRICS countries, the BRICS currencies would only be useful in trade with the originating nation. In other words, while South Africa and India may agree to settle trade in rupees, it is unlikely that other nations would accept rupees in trade with South Africa. Furthermore, several of the BRICS countries carry a large amount of foreign debt, which must be serviced in U.S. dollars, not rupees.

Consequently, South Africa would sit on a pile of rupees that would be useless for any purpose other than trade with India. To make matters worse, while holding the rupees in reserve, South Africa would be exposing itself to currency valuation risk.

International traders use the U.S. SWIFT system to process cross-border payments because it is safe, fast, and accurate. Most importantly, it is convenient as it connects with major banks in over 100 nations. China and Russia have attempted to build SWIFT alternatives, but neither system connects with banks in Western nations.

Consequently, unless the world agrees to use the Chinese or Russian system, the BRICS nations will depend on the SWIFT. And even if a Chinese or Russian payment system is agreed upon, there would still be the problem of which currency to use for international trade.

Arguably, the Chinese yuan would be the most logical currency for the BRICS nations to use for internal trade. Currently, the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is set up to handle trade in yuan. But by agreeing to conduct business in yuan and through the CIPS, the other BRICS nations would be ceding U.S. control of their cross-border trade for CCP control, which they may not be comfortable with.

An alternative recommendation by Putin and bankers in Russia would be to use a basket of currencies. This idea is modeled on the IMF’s SDR, which is composed of a basket of international currencies, including the U.S. dollar, euro, yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound. SDR can be transferred or held in reserve. Presumably, the BRICS would form a basket of its five currencies, but this would do very little to mitigate the problems of BRICS nations using domestic currencies to trade with one another. Other countries would not want to hold a basket of BRICS currency in reserves. And finally, the U.S. SWIFT system would not accommodate transactions made in a basket of BRICS currencies.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EURO VS DOLLAR

Overnight, the Euro tumbles to parity with the dollar

(zerohedge)

Euro Tumbles To Dollar Parity For First Time Since 2002

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 06:06 AM

The Euro is trading at parity with the USDollar. Having tested lower on Monday and then rebounded (on the back of USD selling/Gold buying), the euro has slid once again overnight…

This is the weakest the euro has been relative to the USDollar since Nov 2002 (note the chart below is adjusted for the DM prior to the formation of the euro)…

“The USD is carrying a lot of momentum right now and it’s hard to argue against owing the USD with such an aggressive Fed posture and the myriad of issues in Europe,” said Brad Bechtel, foreign-exchange strategist at Jefferies LLC.

“Having said that it feels like EUR/USD is oversold on many technical measures and parity was such a target for so many people in the market that it wouldn’t surprise if we see a lot of profit taking down here and a short term bounce.”

The weakness of the single currency reflects concerns over European gas supplies from Russia and an economic slowdown.

“The worst case (total stop of gas flows) brings recession and probably another 10% fall by the euro from here,” Societe Generale chief FX strategist Kit Juckes wrote in a note.

If EU NatGas prices are a proxy for this ‘worst case scenario’, then the euro has further to fall…

A string of increasingly-large Fed rate hikes has supercharged the dollar, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has worsened the outlook for growth in the eurozone and pushed up the cost of its energy imports.

Rate-hike differentials suggest the euro has further to fall…

ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Friday that the central bank should increase interest rates by as much as 125bps by September if the inflation outlook doesn’t improve. That would be a dramatic shock given the market is expecting around 75bps of hikes by then (and some have been jawboning the usual dovish sentiment as spreads defragment and stocks stall).

end

EUROPE/RUSSIA/GAS

Europe on high alert as Russia closes its NordStream 1 pipeline for its annual maintenance.  Will it resume shipments after july 21?

(zerohedge)

Europe On High Alert: July Shutdown Of Nord Stream Pipeline Has The EU Worried

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 02:45 AM

It’s a dynamic which some in the alternative media have been warning about for months – While the establishment claimed that Russia would be crushed under the weight of NATO sanctions, others have suggested that Russia could hurt the west more (specifically Europe) by implementing sanctions of their own.  While mainstream governments and journalists argued about how fast NATO should implement restrictions on Russian oil and gas, none of them seemed to consider the possibility that Putin would cut off energy exports himself.  

This is the problem with instituting foreign policy and engaging in geopolitics using a “cancel culture” mentality; it leads to childish thinking and a lack of foresight.  You can’t “cancel” a nation if you are dependent on them for 40% of your energy needs.  

Anyone with moderate industry knowledge in oil and gas could have seen this coming.  Europe is now on “high alert” as the Nordtream 1 pipeline to Germany has lost 60% of its natural gas transfers as Russia pressures Canada for the return of a massive turbine being held in Canada for repairs.  Canada has lifted sanctions in response and allowed the shipment of the turbine back to Russia, showing that the Kremlin does indeed have economic leverage over NATO countries. 

Even more concerning is that the pipeline will be undergoing an extended shutdown due to “maintenance” until July 21st.  Some officials in Europe believe this shutdown may be a precursor (a beta test) to a total block of Russian gas to the EU, and they are probably right.

Speaking at the economic forum Les Rencontres Économiques, French Minister Bruno Le Maire said: ‘Let’s get ready for a total shutdown of the Russian gas supply…This is the most likely event.’  He added ‘We should not take Vladimir Putin’s threats lightly.’

It’s important to remember that Europe is not only dependent on oil and gas imports for heating, it is also dependent on them for electricity and many other needs.  The middle of summer does not seem like the worst time to face heating shortages, but the overall effect of energy loss would drag the EU economy down into panic.  Will the gas supply return after July 21?  Probably, but this shutdown indicates that the Kremlin may be sending a message that they could end Europe’s economic stability anytime they want.  

The closer we get to winter, the more pressure will be applied, no doubt.

The US is far less dependent on Russian energy resources, but there is the greater problem of a “shrinking energy pie” to consider.  With Europe cut off, they will be scrambling (as they already are) to find replacement imports from alternative sources.  This means less oil and gas on the overall global market and even more price inflation for everyone, including Americans.  

The Ukrainian government has chimed in on the scenario, arguing that Putin is “bluffing.”  However, if we look at recent developments in terms of Russia’s trading partners, this sounds like political spin.  Both China and India have greatly increased their purchases of Russian oil over the past few months and Russia’s oil revenues have soared despite western sanctions. Russian natural gas exports to China jumped 60% in May.  This shift in trade is part of a 30 year energy deal signed with China in February before the Ukraine war even began, indicating well planned contingencies on the part of the Kremlin.  

Russia’s economic backing from its trade partners was solidified at the recent BRICS summit, where nations like China and India showed full support and offered only passing interest in Ukraine.  With The BRICS representing well over 30% of the human population and China representing the largest importer exporter economy in the world today, Russia is not facing any shortage of export alternatives.  It is highly unlikely that they are bluffing when it comes to cutting off energy to Europe.

If this does happen for any length of time during winter, prepare for a considerable reduction in living standards in the EU as energy inflation buries their economy and creates the potential for civil unrest.  In the US, prepare for even higher prices in terms of oil and gas as Europe gobbles up whatever energy exports they can find on the market to replace Russian losses.

end

The World Braces For Europe’s July 22 “Doomsday”

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 02:00 PM

Two weeks ago, when previewing the scheduled 10-day shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – which supplies the bulk of European nat gas usage courtesy of Russia – for maintenance, we quoted from DB FX strategist George Saravelos that if the gas shutoff is not resolved in coming weeks this would lead to a broadening out of energy disruption with material upfront effects on economic growth, and of course much higher inflation, or as he puts it, “beyond the market’s worries about slower global growth in recent months, what is unfolding in Europe in recent days is a fresh big negative supply shock.”

As such, DB’s Jim Reid said that July 22, the day gas is supposed to come back online, could be the most important day of the year: “while we all spend most of our market time thinking about the Fed and a recession, I suspect what happens to Russian gas in H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Of course by July 22nd parts may have be found and the supply might start to normalize. Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen here is guessing but as minimum it should be a huge focal point for everyone in markets.”

Fast forward to today when, one day after the start of the scheduled 10-day shutdown period which has already sent flows through to NS 1 pipeline to basically zero…

… and the market is now focusing on the worst case scenario: what happens if Russia cuts off all gas on July 22, the day even Bloomberg has now dubbed Europe’s “doomsday scenario.”

Here is a sample of what Wall Street expects to happen then:  European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking to just 90 cents, before a full-blown recession slams the world’s 2nd biggest economy.

And all this power in the palm of Putin’s hand, almost as if he knew precisely how much leverage he had back in February while Europe was – as always – completely clueless.

So to help Europe’s braindead bureaucrats, where energy policies have been dictated by a petulant Scandianvian teenager and a bunch of German “greens”, strategists across Wall Street have tried to put numbers on a scenario that would be unthinkable in normal times. The caveat of course is that there are so many variables, such as the length of any shutdown, the extent of supply cuts, and how far countries would go to ration energy, that anyone’s prediction is a guess at best. Even so, the scenarios are catastrophic.

“The big unknown is how the shock that starts in Germany, Poland and other central European countries will reverberate throughout the rest of Europe and the world,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Liberum Capital. “There simply is no substitute available for Russian gas.”

In an analysis this week (available to pro subscribers), UBS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.

“We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario,” wrote Arend Kapteyn, chief economist at UBS. “We could easily conceive economic disruptions that lead to more negative growth outcomes.”

To be sure, markets are already pricing in some of the damage starting with the euro which today traded at a fresh two-decade low and briefly touched parity with the dollar, something it hasn’t done since 2002.

Meanwhile, German stocks have lost 11% since June. German gas giant Uniper SE is the biggest corporate casualty, with the stock plunging 80% this year as it seeks a government bailout.

To be sure, even though French and German leaders are warning populations to “prepare for total cut-off of Russian gas“, many investors still believe there’s reason to believe Russia will turn gas supply back on when maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline ends on July 21. But, as UBS points out, if European countries start voluntary gas rationing to fill up on storage, the hit to economic growth will be severe.

“Europe is currently being caught in a vicious circle,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz. Higher energy prices are hurting Europe’s economy, driving the euro lower. In turn, the weaker euro makes energy imports even more expensive, he said.

The other worry is that the ECB will be unable to do much to help the economy – which is about to slide into a recession – with inflation already running at decade-highs, said Prashant Agarwal, a portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management.

“I am not sure central bank tools work in this scenario,” he said. “In the past, they had leeway to address the situation because inflation was low.”

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here’s a round-up of other strategist views:  

BNP Paribas SA

A full-blown gas disruption would drive the Euro Stoxx 50 to 2,800, about a 20% plunge from current levels, wrote strategists including Sam Lynton-Brown and Camille de Courcel.

They recommend hedges, such as high-quality companies and buying options skew on the European stock index. Auto, industrial and chemical industries will be under pressure, they wrote.

Nomura International Plc

Currency strategist Jordan Rochester has been urging clients to short the common currency since April. If Nord Stream 1 doesn’t resume operations, the euro may drop to 90 cents over the winter, he wrote.

“We believe Europe may fail to build up sufficient gas storage for the winter and this may lead to energy rationing,” he said. “If that’s not an economic crisis, what is?”

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The moves in European corporate bond spreads would be bigger than the first wave of the Covid pandemic in 2020 if Russia shuts off gas supplies, according to strategists led by Matthew Bailey.

Spreads on high-grade debt may surge to 325 basis points, they wrote. For junk-rated bonds, the spread could widen to as much as 1,000 basis points.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The euro is already reflecting a lot of the negativity, but the currency could fall another 5% if markets price in a full shutdown of Nord Stream 1, said strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann. They recommend a defensive allocation, with overweights on cash and commodities.

Bank of America Corp.

Former copper bull Bank of America also slashed its forecasts last week, warning that in a worst-case scenario where Europe experiences widespread gas shortages, prices could plunge to as low as $4,500 a ton. Copper sank 2% to $7,429 on Tuesday.   

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

IRAN/RUSSIA

Not sure if this is true.  Russia has been quite capable of manufacturing drones

(zerohedge)

White House Says Iran Supplying “Several Hundred” Armed Drones To Russia 

MONDAY, JUL 11, 2022 – 07:40 PM

In a truly unexpected and entirely bizarre development, the White House has announced that the US has intelligence showing that the Iranian government is preparing to transfer combat drones to Russia in order to help with the ongoing offensive against Ukraine.

As revealed for the first time in a Monday afternoon White House press briefing previewing President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, the transfer doesn’t just involve a symbolic few drones in order for Tehran to merely defiantly thumb its nose at Washington, but allegedly will include “up to several hundred” unmanned aerial vehicles.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, “Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline.” 

This marks the first time that Iran has been accused of helping Russia amid its ongoing assault on Ukraine. The new charge is unusual and curious given Russia already maintains an advanced drone program, and in general its military is considered high-tech and is deemed rival to other major superpowers like the US and China, especially in the area of hypersonic weapons technology. Naturally, this leaves some pundits wondering why Russia would need a whole large fleet of drones from Iran of all countries.

Sullivan told reporters that the drone transfer will even include training Russian troops on how to use them: “Our information further indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July,” he said.

The US national security adviser did attempt to provide a possible motive or reason why Iran and Russia would make such an unusual deal, per Axios:

Sullivan said it’s proof that Russia’s efforts to overtake Ukraine are “coming at a cost to the sustainment of its own weapons.”

It’s just “one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran for capabilities that … have been used before we got the ceasefire in place in Yemen, to attack Saudi Arabia,” he noted.

This appears to hinge on the assessment currently coming out of the West that Russia is losing more of its military hardware and munitions than it was prepared for during these opening four months of the war while seeking to sustain its non-stop bombardment of Ukrainian front lines in the East and South.

Sullivan is suggesting that Russia fears it will be depleted of the weapons and ammunition stockpile needed to achieve its goals in Ukraine. During the briefing, he added the caveat that “It’s unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already.” It’s also uncertain at this point which UAV types or models the Iranians are allegedly sending.

One possibility is the Sahed 129 or the newer Sahed 136 – the latter which is a ‘suicide drone’. Both were developed and are operated by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and are considered relatively recent, advanced additions to the Iranian military’s arsenal.

end

The ugliness of proxy war

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:36 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

When you lose “high moral ground” you become a nobody, just a war criminal and child rapist. America lost this ground a long time ago. The sheer ineptitude of understanding in American politics of common sense reality is beyond wonderment. Sadly American politicians are not alone. The reality in the Ukraine is that America led by the likes of “Cookie” Nuland a eager Neocon and other eager blood stained hands have overseen a color revolution that has become a fascist regime committing many atrocities. Much of which the public has not been made aware of. However, one day not far off, this will change. Today is is not just men of 18 to 60 who are detained and sent off to minimal training but also women. Fight to the last Ukrainian is the cry of heartless greedy enablers. Meanwhile what is left of a functioning economy in the Western Ukraine has been repurposed as a military economy depend on Western financial aid dollars to clothe the Ukrainians sent off to meet the meat grinder of Russian artillery in certain death. In this next phase to be unleashed shortly, expect another 80,000 or so Ukrainians to be be killed or MIA. Already the numbers of dead and MIA exceed 200,000. Zelensky applauds the MIA because families do not receive compensation, only the pain of not knowing. It is a fact that Russian forces were vastly out numbered. Normally a invading force looks for a 3 or 4 to 1 superiority to ensure success. It has  not been the case in the Ukraine 🇺🇦. Russian forces have not been more more than 20,000 and are national guard types combined with 30-35,000 DPR troops from the Eastern Ukraine and 10,000 Chechen troops. Russia has not committed serious manpower; at least not yet. And we have seen a limited use of firepower that will soon increase. The next group of Ukrainians will die much faster in the next upcoming phase of SMO.

Sadly, the US military doesn’t understand continental warfare, if it ever did. And it certainly (forget about the US political class, grossly uneducated and uncultured) it  doesn’t understand what is going on in Ukraine, and nor it does care. This is clear from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya to Afghanistan and perhaps even Korea. Like him or not Trump at least understood a fighting war is not in America’s interest. And in that he was much more insightful than the current clown show. 

Lack of understanding, always comes with a price. It is why we are told we learn by our mistakes; when learning by awareness or education fails to impress. For some parties not understanding the difference between right and wrong lacking that moral compass and common sense deliveries harsh punches of grief. Call it karma or that there is always a day of reckoning and when it comes it is a bitch!

Unlike Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan Russia can fly a cruise missile into a specific window at the specific address in the US. It is really funny that many in the US “elite” don’t get it. And they are not alone. So when Russia points out that it hold decision centers outside of the Ukraine to account. They are not kidding; Russians do not kid; they joke but the they are serious. So do not be surprised one day to see an accounting bill come due. 

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Dr Paul Alexander….4 commentaries:   special thanks to Milan S for providing this for us:  First commentary!


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Marburg Virus Disease, First-Ever Suspected Cases Reported In Ghana: this is because of encroachment of humanity into habitat of wild animal reservoirs; Obama brought Ebola to US, Biden Marburg?

There has always been a battle between pathogen & humans, since beginning of time, a quest by one entity to survive using cellular machinery of the other etc. to replicate itself; ideal symbioticDr. Paul Alexander
July 12

The concern for me is that Obama allowed Ebola onto US soil in 2014 with very catastrophic and devastating handling and showed us then that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Thomas Frieden was basically inept and incompetent. The question today July 2022 for me is, and based on this Marburg emergence in Ghana, will Biden et al. do same for Marburg if this expands more? This is the issue. Will they bring infected people onto US soil for treatment? Marburg is so very infectious and deadly.I wanted this on your radar.Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Subscribe nowIt is really a fascinating battle and dance across millions of years. Both humans and pathogen are trying to survive. It is that simple, both essentially needing to eat, move, reproduce, excrete, eat etc. In a simplistic statement. The key is that pathogen do not want to kill the host as it seeks to survive. Ideally. In this never ending battle that has always taken place you just never gave it much consideration and that is ok, the goal is some sort of symbiotic stable relationship with each other, as odd as it sounds.We are now encroaching on the habit of pathogen and people like this in the gain-of-function (GoF) work e.g. Francis Collins and Fauci et al. actively go and interfere with pathogen (IMO for nefarious reasons, not purely for ‘research’ as these are not benevolent people who woke up one morning seeking to help you and I and save the world, they seek benefit, ‘profit’ as they engage in $CIENCE, their actions with COVID and what they did with their lockdown lunacy and response and the deaths they caused and the failed injection mRNA platform they will not stop pushing that they know is killing people but will not stop) tells us their real motives, and they have no clue what they are doing, as we see with COVID. They created a monster with their GoF madness and others and IMO deliberately. This is no accident and we need to know how and why? WHO high level officials told me directly they knew it was lab made and deliberate and with deliberate release, you may say a deliberate accident. IMO and what was whispered, to harm the US and POTUS Trump.MarburgMarburg virus disease is not good news. It’s a highly infectious viral hemorrhagic fever in the same family as the Ebola virus disease. People infected with the virus will start to show symptoms abruptly, including high fever, severe headache, extreme tiredness, and muscle aches. By day three, patients can expect to see severe watery diarrhea, abdominal pain, stomach cramps, nausea, and vomiting. People at this stage are often said to take on a “ghost-like” appearance, with drawn features, deep-set eyes, blank facial expressions, and extreme lethargy.Eventually, fresh blood will appear in the vomit and faces, along with bleeding from the nose, gums, and vagina. This is often accompanied by a sky-high fever, confusion, irritability, and aggression. In fatal cases, death usually occurs between 8 and 9 days after symptoms first emerge, typically as a result of severe blood loss and shock. It’s a shockingly deadly disease,  with a fatality rate of up to 88 percent.There are currently no vaccines or antiviral treatments approved for Marburg virus disease, although early treatment of symptoms and rehydration can significantly improve a patient’s chance of survival
end
Second commentary/Dr Paul Alexander…

Lincoln National, insurance company, fifth-largest life insurance company in US, reports a 163% increase in death benefits paid out under its group life insurance policies in 2021; why? COVID vaccine?Yes, Yes, Yes!!! it’s the vaccine. Where is the evidence-based medicine world (EBM)? Where are these stalwarts of evidence? Are they bought out, drunk on their research grants from Pfizer and NIH?
Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 11

It is the COVID injection and the sooner we people get out heads out of our assess unafraid to admit we were lied to and deceived and misled and snookered by the Trump administration and the Biden administration. Yes, both. Sick malevolent people in both lied to us and have risked our lives.Remember, that the OneAmerica insurance company reported a 40% increase in deaths in 18-64 year olds in 2021. “And these deaths are occurring in working-age people, just to be clear, between the ages of 18 and 64.”

SOURCE
Now Lincoln National is reporting a near 200% increase in payouts since COVID injection initiation. “Last year, an astounding $1.45 billion left Lincoln National’s coffers – this compared to $548 million in 2020 and just over $500 million in 2019.”
SOURCE


Third commentary/Paul Alexander

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“There are no indications of suicide or foul play.” Navy Sailor Found Dead Onboard USS Carl Vinson, Nimitz-class aircraft carrier Docked in California; is this the COVID vaccine? Likely! More to come!

Consider the COVID injection as cause. ‘A sailor assigned to the USS Carl Vinson was found dead on board aircraft carrier over the weekend while it was docked in California, the U.S. Navy confirmed.’Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 12SOURCE:The Navy is currently investigating the death. Foul play and suicide are not suspected.

end

Fourth commentary/Paul Alexander
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‘UK Gov. quietly published a report confirming the Vaccinated account for 94% of all COVID-19 Deaths since April, 90% of which were Triple/Quadruple Jabbed’Government of Canada figures show that there were 521 Covid-19 deaths between 6th -12th June, and the vaccinated population accounted for 485 of them (93%), 242 deaths among quadruple vaccinated

Dr. Paul Alexander
Jul 12
SOURCE
A report that was quietly published by the UK Government, just hours before Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation, reveals that Covid-19 deaths have risen dramatically among the triple vaccinated population in England over the past couple of months whilst declining drastically among the unvaccinated population.With the most recent figures showing the vaccinated population in England accounted for a shocking 94% of all Covid-19 Deaths in April and May, and 90% of those deaths were among the triple/quadruple vaccinated population.”


GLOBAL INFLATION/SUPPLY ISSUES

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Vaccine Impact


Video: New York Releases New Nuclear Attack PSA – What Does this Mean?July 11, 2022 7:56 pmNew York City Emergency Management released a new nuclear attack public service announcement today. American Military News reports: “The grim video begins with an animated depiction of New York City after a nuclear explosion, including piles of rubble and sirens blaring. So there’s been a nuclear attack. Don’t ask me how or why, just know that the big one has hit. Ok? So, what do we do? There are three important steps that I want you to remember, the video’s host states. Step one: get inside, fast. You, your friends, your family … get inside. And, no, staying in the car is not an option. You need to get into a building and move away from the windows.” So what does this mean? Why are they disseminating this PSA in New York City at this time? The most logical reason would be that someone believes that NYC is being targeted for a nuclear missile strike. But sending a nuclear missile into NYC would be pure suicide for whatever country would do such a thing, as the U.S. would most certainly retaliate. Targeting a major civilian population area also does not make much military sense, because if any country would be foolish enough to risk a first strike against the U.S., chances are they would target military bases and our naval ships, seeking to destroy places where nukes are kept to reduce the chances of retaliation. Given the current political climate and the constant use of fear to keep the public in a never-ending state of terror so that they gladly accept government solutions that sacrifice freedom for slavery, the more reasonable explanation is to keep New Yorkers (and the rest of the country) in a perpetual state of being afraid of the next “big thing.” Could we be looking at “false flag” attacks on American soil that are actually orchestrated by our own government, who will then turn around and blame some foreign entity, such as Russia, in order to justify more government actions to keep people at home and off the streets as they did during the COVID plandemic?
Read More…

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MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(FOLEY)

Rabobank: The Fate Of Eurozone Fragmentation Is In The Hands Of Putin

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 09:23 AM

By Jane Foley, head of FX research at Rabobank

Maintenance?

EUR/USD has edged lower, to just a whisper away from parity.  The move coincides with yesterday’s closure of the Nord Steam 1 pipeline for maintenance.  This transports around 55 billion cubic metres of natural gas every year from Russia to Germany, under the Baltic Sea.  The maintenance is scheduled to last for ten days.  Politicians, investors and speculators see risk that Putin may not turn the taps back on in time or that a reduced supply could come back online as the economic war between Russian and the West and its allies intensifies.  If the scheduled maintenance of the pipeline is extended it would undermine the ability of Europe to store gas in preparation for winter. The result could be even higher energy prices or, potentially rationing for heavy industrialised users. In turn this could means job losses in Europe and recession. Not only does the latter imply that the window of opportunity for the ECB to hike rates would be limited, but it also increases the likelihood of fragmentation issues coming to the fore within the Eurozone. All of this spells out a why the EUR has been under pressure. The fact that last week’s better than expected US payrolls report has underpinned the view that the Fed will hike rates by 75 bps later this month is only serving to enhance the pressure on EUR/USD.

Comments from Atlanta Fed president Bostic have highlighted his confidence that the US economy can cope with another large interest rate hike.  Bostic, who does not have a policy vote this year, said that he “would support a 75 bp point” increase. By contrast, however, Kansas City Fed President George warned that “moving interest rates too fast raises the prospect of oversteering”. The market is focused on tomorrow’s release of US CPI inflation data as well as earnings season for more direction.

Adding to the worsened environment are concerns over a resurgence of Covid outbreaks in China.  Various cities across the country have reimposed restrictions in an attempt to quash the more infectious variants that have become familiar in the west.  As of yesterday, it was reported that eleven cities are now under full or partial lockdowns, impacting a reported 114.8 mln people.  The restrictions will work their way through into the economy in the form of higher prices and slower levels of activity and, through supply chains, the inflationary impact will be transmitted around the globe.

In addition to boosting the USD, risk-off sentiment is weighing on stock market futures this morning.  In step with this, US treasury yields have pushed lower, and commodities are generally also under pressure.  The price of Brent crude is weakening this morning, though it is holding above its recent lows.  Overnight IEA Executive Director Birol warned that the energy crisis could worsen.  He predicted that “we may not have seen the worst of it yet, this is affecting the entire world”.

Thousands of mourners have lined Tokyo’s streets to pay their respects to former PM Abe who was assassinated last Friday.  Commentators are speculating as to whether his death could allow PM Kishida to move back to a more fiscally prudent set of policies.  There is also speculation as to whether the ruling coalition’s success in the weekend’s upper house elections (in part due a sympathy vote after Abe’s death), could mean Japan is closer to amending its constitution.  Although the constitution was reinterpreted during the Abe years, he never achieved his objective of changing the pacifist constitution, which has been in place since the end of the second world war.   Five Russia navy vessels were reported to have sailed around most of Japan last month and a strengthening in Chinese/Russia military activities has been reported near Japan.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

To me it looks like Saudi Oil production is already at capacity of 12 million barrels per day

(zerohedge_

Is Saudi Oil Production At Capacity?

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Use it or lose it – this principle might apply to Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity that is now eyed by the Western world to fill the Russia-sized gap in supply left behind by embargoes.

However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, Saudi Arabia in the past three years only approached its declared maximum production capacity of 12 million barrels per day in one month, casting doubts on the kingdom’s ability to quickly up its production to stabilize world markets. According to Bloomberg, such predictions have come from UAE leadership, who together with the Saudis are the only OPEC members who have spare production capacity – at least on paper.

Infographic: Is Saudi Oil Production at Capacity? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Joe Biden is traveling to Saudi Arabia this week and the increase of the global oil supply will be on the top of the agenda for the U.S. president. Up until now, the Gulf kingdom and its OPEC allies have been reluctant to make major changes as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. OPEC stuck to its slow production increases that were scheduled to reverse Covid-era cuts between March and June, and only recently agreed to up production quotas faster in the coming months in the light of the dramatic world market developments. Saudi Arabia’s OPEC production quota for August 2022 stands at 11 million barrels a day – more than it has been in a long time and still a whole million barrels a day below the country’s elusive maximum quota.

As seen in data by the organization, Saudi Arabia has remained below its production quota prior to the Covid-19 epidemic and only once approached its declared maximum production capacity in April 2020 amidst a row with Russia that saw production quotas go out the window. The following months, the kingdom stood down, accepting lower production quotas than its rival on a voluntary basis.

If the Saudis can in fact produce more, they might also not want to.

Driving oil production to the edge of what is possible globally holds an inherent risk should another disruption, like it happened recently in Libya due to political unrest, should occur. Since that disruption can then not be compensated at all, it could cause an even more drastic jump in oil prices.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0042 DOWN  0.0005 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 136.78   DOWN 0.626 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1838 DOWN   0.0061

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 32.62 POINTS UP  0.97%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 279.46 PTS OR 1.32% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.08%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 279.46 PTS OR   1.32% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 32.62 PTS DOWN 0.97% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.08% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 475.64 OR 1.77%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1735.45

silver:$18.86

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 108.07  UP 0.24  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.23%  DOWN 11  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.229% DOWN 0     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.22%// DOWN 11   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.20  DOWN 11   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.13%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0071 UP  0.0025    or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.67 DOWN 0.743 OR YEN UP  74  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1908  UP  0.0008 OR 8  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts  to 1.2994

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7248  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.7345

TURKISH LIRA:  17.31  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.229

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  2.921% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.105 DOWN 8 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.73 DOWN 8   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 12.12 PTS OR  0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 61.27  POINTS OR 0.48%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 48.06 PTS OR 0.80% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.20 OR 0.72%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 83.95PTS OR  0.39%

WTI Oil price 96.92   12: EST

Brent Oil:  100,41  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  58.96  DOWN 0.6        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.13

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0044 DOWN .0002     OR  2 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1888 DOWN .0011  or  11 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.78  DOWN .627//YEN UP .627 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3002 UP 0028 (CDN dollar DOWN  28  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 95.50

Brent OIL:  98.96

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.954 DOWN 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.134  DOWN 5  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.31

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  58.94   DOWN 4/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 192.38 PTS OR 0.62 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 115.30 PTS OR 0.97%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.43 UP 1.26 PTS (4.87)%

GLD: 160.83 DOWN 0.60 PTS OR 0.37%

SLV/ 17.44 DOWN .14 CENTS OR 0.80%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Sink, Yield Curve Inverts, Crude Crashes As Global Stagflation Accelerates

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 04:00 PM

It was not a pretty day for global sentiment as German investor confidence crashed to its weakest since 2011’s EU debt crisis and then the US NFIB Small Business Outlook hit a record low. Heading into tomorrow’s CPI print, global stagflation appears to be accelerating (inflation is consistently hotter than expected and economic growth weaker than expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations have fallen for the last two days…

Source: Bloomberg

And rate-cut expectations for Q1 2023 are now back at 13bps…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid today (with the belly outperforming 7Y -5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite an ugly auction (2bps tail), 10Y Yields held below 3.00% (and below the payrolls yield spike lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

The shift sent the yield curve (2s10s) tumbling to its most inverted since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps more notably the 3M10Y spread is collapsing…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were weaker overnight, rallied into the US cash open then dumped and pumped into the European close and stabilized. Then at 1500ET a massive sell program hit and all the majors puked hard…

There was no obvious catalyst for that puke but a fake CPI press release had been floating around for hours and some claimed that triggered it (we doubt that)…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1546944346414632961&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fus-yield-curve-inverts-crude-crashes-global-stagflation-accelerates&sessionId=e32a2711cf6b3ce1c81c3326101802ca33c6e101&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=3235bd17138fa%3A1657578976990&width=550px

Notably it appears this liquidation-like move started in crypto as Bitcoin turned down first (barely) and then Nasdaq followed…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest ‘sell program’ in two weeks (which were among the biggest sell programs in history)…

Source: Bloomberg

The euro touched parity with the dollar overnight, perfectly hitting 1.0000 before bouncing…

Source: Bloomberg

There was interesting action as traders tested down towards parity. Every time the euro dived, Gold was bid (implicitly short USDs and supporting the euro). Then once Europe was closed, the Euro and gold slipped lower…

Bitcoin tumbled back below $20k, testing down to $19500…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled over 8% today, breaking back below $100 near last week’s lows…

…and continues to test toward its key 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, don’t forget tomorrow’s CPI. For four of the last 5 months, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average 0.78% on CPI day…

Source: Bloomberg

CPI has been hotter than expected for the last 5 months and The White House has been dutifully front-running in terror making us wonder if tomorrow will make it 6 in a row.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA//

Real time credit card data reveals a broad based slowdown as spending growth turns negative for low income households.  They money they earn per month just covers the necessities

(zerohedge)

Real-Time Card Data Reveals “Broad-Based Slowdown”: Spending Growth Turns Negative For Low Income Households

MONDAY, JUL 11, 2022 – 08:20 PM

After last month’s disappointing retail sales, which confirmed what we already knew, namely that the US consumer was getting tapped out after maxing out credit cards in recent months, the latest total card spending per household, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, returned modestly to the green, rising 0.3% month-over-month (mom) in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prompting BofA economist Aditya Bhave to forecast a 0.4% mom increase in the Census Bureau’s ex-auto retail sales figure in June, and expects the core control group (retail sales ex auto, gas, building materials and restaurants) to increase by a below-consensus 0.1% mom.

While the headline retail sales number may appear solid, since inflation remained solid-er in June, the card data suggest there is a risk that real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending declined for the second consecutive month.

Which brings us to the next point: the latest BofA card spending data reveals a broad-based slowdown.

As BofA notes, last month we were encouraged by the fact that services spending was picking up the slack as stay-at-home goods demand faded. Alas, the story for June is more concerning. Gas prices reached all-time highs in mid-June before easing off modestly through month-end. Gasoline spending rose another 4% in June and is up 20% over the last five months.

This has started to take a toll on other categories of consumer spending, including services.

In June, spending on travel and restaurants fell for the first time since January (when the Omicron wave peaked), while durable goods spending dropped for the fourth consecutive month. 

Worse, for the week ending July 2, airline, lodging and restaurant spending by lower-income households were all basically flat on a year-over-year (yoy) basis…

… and on a consolidated bases is now negative compared to 2021!

What about the split between debit and credit card spending? BofA economists note that one common concern they hear is whether lower-income households with liquidity constraints are being forced to spend more on their credit cards because of inflation; while they claim they have not seen much evidence of this in the BAC card data, they admit that credit card spending has modestly outpaced debit card spending for lower-income cohorts over the last year..

… even though debit card spending has grown much more relative to pre-pandemic levels, which of course is to be expected courtesy of trillions in stimmies which parked in various checking accounts (and has been mostly bled dry by now).

What is more concerning is that as exhibit 21 shows, credit card usage among low income cohorts is declining, not because of increased frugality but because as we showed last week, after an explosive move higher in Q1 in credit card balances..

… most American households are now maxed out and the “easy” sources of purchasing power are gone, which means the Biden admin will be hard pressed to come up with another major crisis that allows it to dispense with a few more trillion in stimmies to preserve social order and peace.

END

US Small Business Optimism Outlook Crashes To Record Low, Yield Curve Inverts Most Since 2007

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 09:40 AM

Shortly after German investor confidence collapsed to its weakest since the 2011 debt crisis (as the country faces the growing prospect of a recession and risks mount that it’s shut off from Russian energy supplies), US Small Business optimism plummeted more than expected in June with inflation topping the factors driving fear into American entrepreneurs.

Headline optimism among US small-business owners slumped in June to the lowest level since early 2013 (down 3.6 to 89.5, well below 92.5 exp), but a net minus 61% of owners last month said they expect better business conditions over the coming six months, down 7 percentage points from May and the worst result in the survey’s 48-year history.

Source: Bloomberg

All 10 sub-components worsened in June…

Inflation continues to be a top problem for small businesses with 34% of owners reporting it was their single most important problem in operating their business, an increase of six points from May and the highest level since quarter four in 1980.

As inflation continues to dominate business decisions, small business owners’ expectations for better business conditions have reached a new low,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

“On top of the immediate challenges facing small-business owners including inflation and worker shortages, the outlook for economic policy is not encouraging either.”

The record low outlook is strongly indicating bad times for the economy to come. In concurrence, those expecting real sales growth is also historically low, expected better credit conditions has deteriorated and only 3% of small business owners think the current period is a good time to expand their business.

The NFIB concludes rather ominously, these indicators make a very strong case for a decline in economic activity. How long and how severe is now the question. It appears that real GDP growth was negative in the first two quarters of the year, some say that is a recession. But employment has yet to yield to the forces of decline, a good sign…”

We note that the yield curve (2s10s) has collapsed to its most inverted since 2007 this morning…

“However this plays out, small business owners are bracing for challenging times ahead.”

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

LoanDepot To Fire Another 2,000 Workers As Mortgage Market Implodes

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 11:01 AM

It’s only appropriate that one day after we reported that the “Housing Market Craters As Sales Get Canceled At The Highest Rate On Record” that the Biden housing crash claimed its latest victim, or rather 2,000 victims, as mortgage lender LoanDepot announced it would  would fire another 2,000 staff by the end of the year as the company downsizes “to align with rapidly changing market conditions.” The latest round of layoffs is part of the company’s plan to reduce staff to 6,500 by the end of 2022.

The company, which had 11,300 employees at the end of 2021, has already cut 2,800 jobs this year, and expects to cut another 2,000 jobs to end 2022 with about 6,500 employees.

“We anticipate continued challenging market conditions, with mortgage originations projected to decline by roughly half in 2022 from 2021, including an accelerated decline in the second half of 2022, followed by a further decline in 2023,” said Chief Financial Officer Patrick.

The company is targeting about $375 million to $400 million in annualized cost reductions by the end of this year through actions that include:

  • Headcount reduction
  • Attrition
  • Reduced marketing and third-party spending
  • Real estate consolidation

As part of the mass layoff, LoanDepot expects to incur additional non-operating expenses during the second half of 2022 including:

  • Severance and benefits-related charges of $25 million to $28 million
  • Charges related to the exit of real estate between about $2.5 million to $3.5 million
  • Outside service costs of $7 million to $9 million

For Q2, the company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $42 million, and while it continues to target a return to run-rate operating profitability exiting 2022, we wouldn’t hold our breath.

The stock rose 4% in premarket trading but considering the company has lost about 95% from its February 2021 high…

… that will probably not make too many shareholders happy.

end

Much Of The Southwest Is Turning Into ‘Death Valley’ As Dust-Bowl Conditions Return And Water Resources Dry Up

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The endless drought in the Southwest has become a full-blown national emergency.  If Lake Mead, Lake Powell and the Colorado River keep drying up at the rate they have been, millions of Americans could soon be without water and electricity.  Despite all of our advanced technology, those living in the Southwest continue to be extremely dependent on a handful of critically important water sources, and if those water sources get so low that they cannot be used we are going to have a major crisis on our hands.

The National Park Service says that Death Valley is the hottest and driest place in North America, but the truth is that vast stretches of the Southwest are now starting to resemble Death Valley.

For example, Utah has been dealing with extremely unusual heat in recent weeks and at this point nearly the entire state is officially suffering from either “extreme drought” or “exceptional drought”.

As a result, the Great Salt Lake has been shrinking and the water level has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded

Utah’s Great Salt Lake has hit a new historic low for the second time in less than a year, dipping to a water level of only 4,190ft over the weekend.

The state’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) said the water levels have sunk past the last record set in October, which at the time had matched a 170-year record low.

DNR officials and weather experts warn that the water levels at the Great Salt Lake are expected to drop even further until fall or early winter as the West contends with an ongoing drought.

Meanwhile, water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell continue to fall as well.

If water levels keep sinking in the months ahead, millions of Americans living in the Southwest could soon lose their main source of electricity

Supplies at Lake Mead and Lake Powell are dangerously low, holding just more than a quarter of their total capacities — and threatening the dams’ ability to generate electricity and provide water to its nearly 40 million users. At its highest level, in the 1980s, Lake Mead could have submerged the Empire State Building up to its top floor. Now, water levels have dropped by nearly 200 feet, or 20 stories, exposing a stark white “bathtub ring” around the rocky walls of the perimeter.

The drinking water for millions of Americans is also at risk.

Normally, the Colorado River provides drinking water for approximately 40 million people, but now it is drying up really fast.

And we aren’t talking about a crisis point that is years or even months away.

If California and six other states can’t agree to severe water reductions in less than 60 days, the U.S. government “will do it for them”

California and six other Western states have less than 60 days to pull off a seemingly impossible feat: Cut a multi-way deal to dramatically reduce their consumption of water from the dangerously low Colorado River.

If they don’t, the federal government will do it for them.

Needless to say, the endless drought is also having a massive impact on agriculture.

Normally Kansas grows more wheat than any other state, but this year fields all over western Kansas are in really bad condition

This time of year, the wheat growing in this part of western Kansas should be thigh-high and lush green.

But as a months-long drought continues to parch the region, many fields tell a different story.

“There’s nothing out there. It’s dead,” farmer Vance Ehmke said, surveying a wheat field near his land in Lane County. “It’s just ankle-high straw.”

Most of us don’t think much about where our food comes from, but the truth is that if farmers don’t grow it we don’t get to eat.

And right now many wheat fields in western Kansas “look like barren wastelands”

Across western Kansas, many fields planted with wheat months ago now look like barren wastelands. The gaping spaces between rows of brown, shriveled plants reveal hardened dirt that’s scarred with deep cracks from baking in the sun.

Of all the years for drought to hit western Kansas wheat farmers, it couldn’t have come at a worse time.

There was a period of time last century when we witnessed similar things.

The Dust Bowl days of the 1930s are a very dark chapter in American history, and now those conditions are returning.

In recent years, giant dust storms have become quite common in states such as Arizona and New Mexico, but now they are starting to happen in states as far north as Iowa

Iowa’s News Now Meteorologists Nick Stewart and Rebecca Kopelman captured an impressive view from a haboob in northwest Iowa Thursday night.

A haboob is an intense dust storm. One hit near Little Rock, Iowa Thursday night bringing 70 mile per hour winds and zero visibility.

Normally it is very rare for such a storm to ever happen in Iowa, but thanks to the endless drought there is a tremendous amount of dust that can now be picked up and blown around

Although not impossible to see in Iowa, they are rather uncommon. However, severe to extreme drought in Nebraska, South Dakota, and far western Iowa left a lot of dry soils to be kicked up by Thursday’s intense winds.

For years, I warned that Dust Bowl conditions would return, and now it has happened.

We are being told that the Southwest is in the midst of the worst “megadrought” in 1,200 years, and there is no end in sight.

So there will be more water restrictions.

And unless something changes, electricity generation in the Southwest will become a major issue.

But I am most concerned about the impact that this drought will have on ranchers and farmers.

So much of our food is normally grown in the Southwest, but without sufficient water that simply is not going to be possible.

end

Confidence In US Media, Government, & Justice-System Collapsing

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 12:41 PM

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Americans’ confidence in major U.S. institutions – including government and the media – is in a state of collapse, falling to an average of just 27 percent across all categories, according to the latest national poll released by the Gallup Organization.

Only the military and small businesses still enjoy the confidence of a majority of Americans.

Although public belief in institutions has been weak for most of the past 15 years, the 27 percent average for all categories is the lowest recorded by Gallup.

The company began measuring confidence in institutions in 1973 and has done so each year since 1993.

The survey figures came after Gallup delivered sobering news on June 22. At that time the company said confidence in the overall direction of the country fell to 13 percent that month, down 3 percentage points from May and 9 points since March when the figure was 24 percent.

It also reported at that time that despite ongoing economic malaise, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating held steady at 41 percent between May and June.

Gallup’s finding on the issue was called into question by the Civiqs Poll’s daily tracking survey of registered voters which found Biden’s approval rating has sunk to a new record low of just 30 percent, the New York Post reported July 9.

Only in two states, the Democratic strongholds of Vermont and Hawaii, are the president’s supporters more numerous than his detractors.

Gallup also reported on June 29 that although 96 percent of U.S. adults expressed pride in varying degrees about being American, that figure includes a record low of 38 percent who consider themselves “extremely proud” to be Americans, the lowest figure for that description since the company began tracking the issue in 2001.

Another 27 percent of Americans said they were “very proud,” while 22 percent said they were “moderately proud,” and 9 percent described themselves as “only a little proud.”

Four percent said they were “not at all” proud to be Americans.

In the new Gallup survey, Americans expressed less confidence in institutions than they did a year ago, with significant declines in 11 of the 16 examined—and no improvements for any of the institutions.

The biggest drops were regarding the presidency as an institution—as opposed to the job performance of the current president—and the Supreme Court.

Confidence in the presidency is now at 23 percent, which is 15 percentage points lower than 2021.

The Supreme Court came in at 25 percent, down 11 points since 2021. The survey was completed before the court rendered landmark rulings on gun rights and abortion, decisions that have proven controversial.

Confidence in Congress came in at just 7 percent, down from 12 percent a year ago.

The figures for the presidency, Congress, and the Supreme Court were record Gallup lows.

Read more here…

special thanks to G. for providing this for us:

Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic — It is downwards from here. Housing is the cornerstone of people’s wealth. It is over!! hedge yourself. Gijs

Inbox

Gijsbert Groenewegen3:36 AM (4 hours ago)
to Gijsbert

Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic

July 11, 2022 9:30 am EDT Download as PDF

Some homebuyers are backing out of deals as a slowing housing market gives them more room to negotiate. Others are being forced to renege on contracts because higher mortgage rates mean some homes are no longer affordable.

SEATTLE–(BUSINESS WIRE)– (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month, according to the latest analysis from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s the highest percentage since March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220711005232/en/

Deals in the housing market are falling through at Fastest Clip Since 2020 (Graphic: Business Wire)

Deals in the housing market are falling through at Fastest Clip Since 2020 (Graphic: Business Wire)

“The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate, which is one reason more of them are backing out of deals,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers are increasingly keeping rather than waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. That gives them the flexibility to call the deal off if issues arise during the homebuying process.”

Marr continued: “Rising mortgage rates are also forcing some buyers to cancel home purchases. If rates were at 5% when you made an offer, but reached 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for a loan.”

The housing market has cooled in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve has boosted interest rates in an effort to quell inflation. That has given house hunters more freedom to seek concessions from sellers, but higher rates also make housing less affordable. Buyers did get a reprieve this past week, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.3% in the largest one-week drop since 2008.

“When mortgage rates shot up to almost 6% in June, we saw a number of buyers back out of deals,” said Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin real estate agent in Miami. “Some had to bow out because they could no longer get a loan due to the jump in rates. Buyers are also more skittish than usual due to economic uncertainty.”

Redfin’s analysis is based on multiple listing service data going back through 2017. Please note that homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract the same month. For example, a home that fell out of contract in June could have gone under contract in May. This report, along with additional housing market data, is available at: https://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchases-fall-through-2022.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country’s #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.comhttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220711005232/en/

end

Good indicator to show that the USA consumer is in trouble

(zerohedge)

Canary In The Car Mine: Repos From Auto Loans That Originated In 2020 And 2021 Are Skyrocketing

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 02:40 PM

If you’re looking for proof that we’re already in the midst of a meaningful deleveraging, look no further than car repos. 

In fact, the industry is a “underappreciated ticking time bomb”, according to Barron’s. One car dealer said this week that most loans on cars currently being repossessed originated during 2020 and 2021 – a trend that differs from the norm, when origination dates are usually scattered. 

“Many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic,” the dealer, who has been in the business for 20 years, told Barron’s. The monthly incomes of many who took on the loans have fallen “sometimes by half” now that stimulus programs have ended, the report says. 

Consumers’ incomes were temporarily high as a result of debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and PPP loans, the report says. The auto dealer says he bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston Martins from two buyers, now in default, who used PPP money for down payments. 

“Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” he said. He told Barron’s he has “never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments.”

“The idea that the economy is strong? Anyone who is actually doing business sees things are not strong. We had a housing bubble in 2008, and now we have an auto bubble,” he continued. He guessed, based on data he has seen from banks, that “subprime repos have nearly doubled since 2020, to around 11% on average”. 

Normally, about 2% of prime loans wind up being repossessed. That number now stands at about 4%. Continuing data on repos is difficult to find, the industry insider said: “A lot of the banks—they’re smart. They control the market, like diamonds. As repos pour in, they only release them so often.”

“The bubble is beginning to show signs of bursting soon,” said Pamela Foohey, law professor at Cardozo School of Law at Yeshiva University, who was one of the first to warn about trouble in the sector back in 2021. 

Auto debt is now about 10% of all total consumer debt, rising $87 billion for the year ended March 2022, to a total of $1.47 trillion. 

And as Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, correctly points out in the article, automobile repos are usually the canary in the coalmine when it comes to economic trouble on the horizon. 

Recall, back in May we noted when cracks in the auto market started to appear. At the time, the WSJ reported that millions of Americans with subpar low credit scores were falling behind on paying their credit cards and automobile and personal loans.

At the time, we called it “an ominous sign the ‘strong consumer’ narrative is cracking.”

Data from credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc in May had already started to show a rise in the share of 60-day delinquencies for subprime credit cards and personal loans. Those delinquencies hit an eight-month high in March, nearing levels not seen since before the virus pandemic. 

Equifax’s data also showed subprime car loans and leases soared to a record-high in February. The data goes back to 2007. 

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

Long Beach Container Backlog Crosses Red Line As Delays Mount

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 03:40 PM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

The number of container ships waiting off Los Angeles and Long Beach is well off its highs, but the pileup of import containers waiting on Southern California terminal yards is rapidly reapproaching its peak.

Long Beach just crossed a red line. The number of import containers sitting on Long Beach terminals for nine days or more is now higher than it was on Oct. 28, 2021, the date the port first began counting these boxes as part of a plan to reduce them.

Gains from ‘key’ fee plan largely gone

Back in October, the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles announced a controversial strategy to charge a fee on long-dwelling containers. Or at least, they threatened to charge a fee (it has been delayed ever since).

The Biden administration coordinated with the ports on the plan and touted reductions in long-dwelling containers in its supply chain updates.

On Jan. 20 (after which the administration’s updates ceased), the White House stated, “The proposed fee on containers that sit on the docks for over eight days at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continues to play a key role in enhancing the fluidity of the ports and … has led to about a 60% reduction in the number of these long-dwelling containers sitting on the docks since Nov. 1.”

That progress has completely evaporated in Long Beach and is close to disappearing in Los Angeles.

Long-dwelling containers pile up in Long Beach

Long Beach had 28,723 containers dwelling nine days or more as of Monday. That’s 9% higher than the total in late October.

Sunday and Monday were the first days the number turned positive since the fee plan was announced. The number of long-dwelling containers jumped by 40% over the past 12 days. On-dock rail containers have largely driven the reversion to October levels.

Los Angeles gains dwindling fast

Los Angeles still shows a decline in long-dwelling containers versus the start date it compares to: Oct. 24. However, as of Monday, the decline had shrunk to just 9%. There were 33,999 import containers dwelling nine-plus days on the port, up 20% over the past 12 days.

There are now more containers dwelling nine-plus days than boxes sitting in Los Angeles for zero to four days (33,309) and 2.7 times the number sitting for five to eight days (12,421).

The last time Los Angeles’ number of import containers dwelling nine days or more was this high was on Nov. 18.

Altogether, there were 79,729 import containers at Los Angeles on Monday. It hasn’t been this high since Nov. 9, eight months ago.

Project44 data on the FreightWaves SONAR platform confirms rising dwell times at Southern California’s ports. The dwell time for import containers in the latest week averaged seven days at both ports, up 32% since the first week of May in Los Angeles and up 41% in Long Beach. The last time the project44 numbers were this high was in the first week of December.

Will the fee be implemented?

The fee plan, if ever implemented, calls for a charge of $100 per container dwelling nine days or more, escalating $100 per day (i.e., $200 on the second day, $300 on the third, etc.), meaning that fees would quickly spiral.

The fee would be charged to the carriers and carriers have stated that they would pass the cost to importers. If the fee were charged on Monday, it would total $6.3 million and balloon each day thereafter.

Every Friday since mid-November, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have issued a joint statement saying the fee has been delayed for another week, citing declines since the plan was announced.

The combined count for both ports still shows a 2% decline versus late October, due to the remaining decline in Los Angeles.

But given current trends, the combined decline could flip to an increase by this Friday. The ports’ ability to point to a combined decline as the reason to delay the fee could expire very soon. (That said, the fee plan requires the approval of the Long Beach and Los Angeles Boards of Harbor Commissioners, and their current approval expires on July 28.)

American Shipper asked the Port of Long Beach if the reversal in the numbers could cause the fee to finally be implemented, and whether it would make sense to do so if the problem is largely being caused by rail issues outside the control of the parties that would be charged.

In a written response, Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero said: “Due to backups at key rail yards elsewhere in the U.S., westbound trains have been delayed and rail-bound import cargo here is waiting for that rail equipment to arrive. We’ll be monitoring closely in the weeks ahead.”

END 

SWAMP STORIES

King report

The King Report July 12, 2022 Issue 6798Independent View of the News
Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemicThe share of sale agreements on existing homes canceled in June was just under 15% of all homes that went under contract, according to a new report from Redfin.Homebuilders are also seeing higher cancelation rates.https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/homebuyers-are-canceling-deals-at-highest-rate-since-start-of-covid.html
 
Recession fear and Q2 earnings trepidations hit The Street on Monday.
 
The dollar soared; the euro neared parity with the buck (1.0034 low).  The yen/$ hit its lowest level (137.75) since September 1998.
 
Bonds soared and stocks sank on defensive asset allocation.  Commodities declined sharply.  Fangs got crushed on Twitter’s travails and because too many traders of various classes got long last week.
 
ESUs hit a low of 3851.50 at 10:23 ET.  Stocks and ESUs then chopped sideways until the conditioned afternoon rally, after morning declines, appeared.  ESUs hit 3882.75 at 13:41 ET.  Fifteen minutes later, they commenced a tumble that took ESUs to 3850.00 at 15:50 ET.  Someone pushed ESUs 10 handles for the NYSE close.
 
USUs hit a daily low of 136 24/32 at 20:20 ET.  They rallied smartly after China closed, and hit a peak of 137 18/32 at 4:23 ET.  An A-B-C decline ended near 6:22 ET.  Then USUs commenced a methodical rally that peaked at 139 29/32 (12:22 ET).  USUs then traded sideways until the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks rallied after another early US tumble
Bonds soared
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Recession angst and Q2 earnings trepidations appeared
Nasdaq tanked 2.3%; the NY Fang+ Index sank
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much will the dollar impact Q2 earnings?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: DownLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3860.87
Previous session High/Low3880.94; 3847.22
 
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: Citi analysts agree with MS on the negative impact of a strong dollar on S&P earnings, especially since US companies generate about 30% of sales abroad. “The rate of change on the dollar exhibits a strong negative correlation over time vs. S&P 500 earnings revisions.”
 
Democrats weigh a range of tax increases in revived Build Back Better plan https://yhoo.it/3uEjWO2
 
Foreclosure ordered for Palmer House owner Thor Equities
Second largest hotel in the city (Chicago) set to hit auction block
   The ruling came less than a week after Wells Fargo took control of the 610-room JW Marriott Chicago in the Loop… https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2022/07/11/foreclosure-ordered-for-palmer-house-owner-thor-equities/
 
Today – Recession angst and Q2 earnings trepidations, on the strong dollar, hit the markets on Monday.  Traders that are conditioned to buy stuff for the expiry week upside squeeze and earnings reporting season were overwhelmed by selling on negative fundamentals.
 
Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.  The window for a rally is likely to close in the afternoon because June CPI is due tomorrow.  Unless someone has nonpublic info, it would be unwise to be long for the June CPI.  The key for today will be the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators as well as recession and Q2 earnings angst sellers.
 
Another important item to monitor is the euro/$.  If the euro falls below parity with the buck…
 
At 16:24 ET, WH Press Sec Jean-Pierre told reporters: “…We expect the headline [June CPI] number, which includes gas and food, to be highly elevated…”  https://twitter.com/thejcoop/status/1546591826475360257
 
ESUs are +2.00 and USUs are +5/32 at 20:20 ET. 
 
Expected Economic Data: June NFIB Small Business Optimism 92.5; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin discusses the ‘Recession Question’ 12:30 ET; PEP starts Q2 earnings reporting, 1.74 expected.
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3966; 100-day MA: 4180; 150-day MA: 4321; 200-day MA: 4377
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,885; 100-day MA: 33,026; 150-day MA: 33,862; 200-day MA: 34,219
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4145.22 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3749.11 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3901.78 triggers a buy signal
 
For the second consecutive day, the NYT runs a disparaging Biden story.  The MSM and Dems are chagrined that the Dobbs Decision had NO effect on polls, and The Big Guy’s approval has fallen further.
 
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows – With the country gripped by a pervasive sense of pessimism, the president is hemorrhaging support… 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, as voters nationwide have soured on his leadership, giving him a meager 33 percent job-approval rating…  Only 13 percent of American voters said the nation was on the right track — the lowest point in Times polling since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html
 
How does President Kamala Harris sound?
 
The legacy media is increasingly discussing The Big Guy’s advanced age and mental acuity, as well as the looming Democrat electoral disaster in November.  While Biden’s handlers continue to hide him, Kamala Harris has been doing an inordinate number of interviews and appearances.
 
Given that the known universe, including some of the legacy media, regularly reports and derides Kamala’s word salad interviews and inane remarks, one must wonder why Kamala is ‘out there’.  Could Team Obama, the real force in the WH, be preparing Kamala for the big job?
 
If the MSM starts reporting Hunter Biden and The Big Buy corruption stories, the countdown to remove Biden has officially commenced.
 
EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden could face prostitution charges for transporting hookers across state lines and disguising checks to them as payments for ‘medical services.’ First Son spent $30k in five months on ‘the girlfriend experience’ – Photos from Hunter’s iPhone show he wrote checks disguised as medical services to prostitutes supplied by Moreva, whose website offers a ‘girlfriend experience’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10966153/Hunter-Biden-spent-30k-prostitutes-FIVE-MONTHS-documents-reveal.html
 
GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: Watching those (new) videos of Hunter Biden, does anyone actually believe that Joe Biden is not being completely blackmailed by some foreign adversary?
 
GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: Jill Biden says Hispanics are as “unique” as breakfast tacos (here in San Antonio) and calls bodegas “bogidas.”  No wonder Hispanics are fleeing the Democratic Party! (Jill was dispatched to San Antonio to halt the flow of Hispanics to the GOP.)
https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1546588649692733441
 
@ClayTravis: Biden’s Department of Justice has begun an antitrust investigation of the PGA Tour on the same week that Biden is heading to Saudi Arabia, which owns the LIV tour. Probably a total coincidence. (“10% for The Big Guy”?)  https://www.outkick.com/justice-department-investigating-pga-tour-liv-golf-biden/
 
@JackPosobiec: NYC has just released a nuclear attack PSA.  Guess they’re worried about Biden as president too.  https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1546540995164213250
 
Harassment and intimidation aren’t ‘legitimate protest,’ and Democrats need to say so
Democracy can’t just be whatever Democrats want at the time that they want it. Yet Democrats now only become staunch defenders of “democracy” when it’s their allies doing the protesting.
    When parents protested at school board meetings, the Biden administration coordinated with the National School Boards Association to mobilize the entire weight of the federal government against them. The Bidenites pretended school board members were routinely getting threats from parents and Attorney General Merrick Garland ordered the FBI to investigate.  Meanwhile, a real threat gets far less attention from these protectors of “democracy.”… Lefties now think they can do whatever they want when they’re angry about an issue… A few weeks ago, a group of environment nutjobs slashed tires on 40 SUVs in New York City… (MSM largely mum on the tire-slashing story)
https://nypost.com/2022/07/10/harassment-intimidation-arent-legitimate-protest-democrats-need-to-say-so/
 
It has become very noticeable that few people are capable of objective thinking and reasoning.  Too many people pine for confirmation of their biases, not the truth.  Like the MSM, they embrace and promote what they wish to be true rather than what is reality.
 
Did reefer drive Highland Park parade shooter Robert Crimo to madness?
Those who knew the 21-year-old suspect, Robert Crimo III, say he habitually smoked cannabis, a habit he appeared to share with young mass shooters, including at Uvalde, Dayton, Parkland and Aurora…
    As the country rushes headlong into the embrace of Big Weed, we need to heed the warning signs, not least in the scientific literature that increasingly shows that cannabis triggers psychosis, and in the emergency rooms where mentally ill kids are the living proof of its harms…
https://nypost.com/2022/07/06/did-reefer-drive-highland-park-parade-shooter-robert-crimo-to-madness/amp/
 
@JonathanTurley: The ectopic pregnancy talking point is not just false, it is dangerous. These pregnancies can be life threatening and must be addressed as soon as possible. These interventions are not abortions and even restrictive states expressly state so.
 
@JonathanTurley: Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost just said that his office has no evidence of a raped ten-year-old child who was impregnated, including a request for lab results. He also noted that Ohio law would have allowed for an abortion in such a case.  The Washington Post recently reported that it could not confirm the story attributed to Dr. Caitlan Barnard who has refused to speak with the media seeking to confirm the story, including the Post.
    There should be a police report in Ohio because a doctor is required to report such a rape. In such a case, Yost’s office would be involved through any lab testing that would be to be done to confirm DNA evidence. Yost says there is no such submission.
    What is curious is that Dr. Caitlan Barnard did television interviews on the rape case on MSNBC. Yet, she has not been willing to confirm that she notified police about a child rapist or any of the facts in the case, including why it was legally necessary to go to Indiana.
 
@nedryun: It’s like the original lie from Norma McCorvey, ie Jane Roe, lying about being raped . . . The Left lies all the time to try 

 

Greg Hunter: interviewing Dr Pierre Kory 

See you Wednesday

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