JULY 13/GOLD CLOSED UP $10.55 TO $1737.15//SILVER ROSE BY 24 CENTS TO $1924//PLATINUM UP $9.80 TO $859.75//PALLADIUM DOWN $62.35 TO $1928.15//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//CHINA UNDERGOING A BANK RUN IN HENIN PROVINCE//GLOBALLY PC DEMAND FALTERS AS CHIPS ARE NOW IN EXCESS/BANK OF CANADA RAISES RATES BY A FULL 1%//USA DATA: HUGE INCREASE IN THE CPI TO 1.3% M/M AND 9.3 YEAR OVER YEAR// TWITTER SUES ELON MUSK//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1737.15 UP $10.55 

SILVER: $19.24 UP 24 CENTS by

GOLD;  $1737.15 UP $10.55 

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1735.60

SILVER: $19.21

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,758 UP 198

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,703. UP 253 

Platinum price: closing UP $9.80 to $859.95

Palladium price; closing DOWN $62.35  at $2040.50

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,723.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 150
323 H HSBC 180
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 331 272
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
880 C CITIGROUP 23
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 481 481
MONTH TO DATE: 4,470

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 272/481

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT 481  NOTICE(S) FOR 48,100 Oz//1.4962  TONNES)

total notices so far: 4470 contracts for 447,000 oz (13.903 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

169 NOTICE(S) FILED 845,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2860 :  for 14,300,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $10.55 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORMTHE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 24 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 514.501 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED  CONTRACTS TO 142,259   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 780 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 155,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -119

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 8 days, total 7757  contracts:  38.785 million oz  OR 4.848 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (969 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 38.785 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 38.785 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 376 DESPITE OUR  $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 285 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 155,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 661 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.305 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 169  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  845,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 26,579 CONTRACTS  TO 542,493 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —1332 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 45,200 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $4.45 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 31,337  OI CONTRACTS 97.47 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6090 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 543,825

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,669 CONTRACTS  WITH 26,579 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6090 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,669 CONTRACTS OR 101.61 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6090) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (25,247,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 31,337 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 43,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

45,246 CONTRACTS OR 4,524,600 OZ OR 140.73  TONNES 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5655 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 140.73 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  140.73/3550 x 100% TONNES  3,97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 2238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 140.73 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 376 CONTRACT OI TO 142,259 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 285 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 285  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:285 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 376 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 661   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.305 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.16 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.83 PTS OR 0.09%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.79 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed UP 142.11 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.31%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7267    /Oil DOWN TO 96.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 99.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7274 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7281: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGELY POWERFUL SIZED 25,247 CONTRACTS TO 542,493 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GIGANTIC  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $4.45  IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  FAIR SIZED EFP (2594 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6090 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :6090 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6090 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 32,669  CONTRACTS IN THAT 6090 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 25,247  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.45.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (14.137),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 14.137 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.45) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN  OF 97.47 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (14.137 TONNES)

WE HAD -1332  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 31,337 CONTRACTS OR  3,133,700  OZ OR 97.47 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 389,319/// strong/

final gold volumes/yesterday  373,708 /strong

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 13

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz232,924.452 oz
Brinks
HSBC
JPMorgan
Manfra
.includes3523 kilobars and 2634 kilobars (Brinks and HSBC)
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today481  notice(s)48,100 OZ1.4962 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)507 contracts 50,700 oz1.576 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4470 notices447,000 OZ13,903 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks 113,267.980 oz (3523 kilobars)

ii) Out of HSBC: 84,685.734. oz (2634 kilobars)

iii) JPMorgan:  302.30 oz

iv) out of Manfra; 34,668.438 oz

total withdrawal: 232,924.452   oz

ADJUSTMENTS:1 dealer to customer

JPMorgan:  52,759.791 oz

Manfra:  8841.140 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 988 contracts GAINED 405 contracts . We had

27 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained a HUGE 432  contracts or an additional 43,200 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 21,100 contracts down to 305,700 contracts

Sept. gained 5 contracts to 2498 contracts.

We had 481 notice(s) filed today for  48,100 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  391 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 481 contract(s) of which 272  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4470) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 988  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 481 x 100 oz per contract equals 497,700 OZ  OR 15.480 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4470) x 100 oz+   (988)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (481} x 100 oz} which equals 497,700 oz standing OR 15.480 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  15.480 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  32,470,435.411 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,997,842.819  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,472,592.592 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,554,309.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 421 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 13

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,923,993.840  oz
CNT
JPMorgan
Loomis
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,768,943.959 oz
Brinks
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)169CONTRACT(S)845,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)154 contracts (770,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2860 contracts 14,300,000oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 1,744,814.200 oz

ii) Into Brinks: 20,147.700 oz

iii0 IntDelaware 3982.059

total deposit:  1,768,943.959   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.742 million oz/339.376 million =51.76% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of CNT: 951.200 oz

ii) Out of loomis  751,708.969 oz

iii)Out of JPMorgan: 1,187,126.900 oz 

iv) out of Manfra:20,147.700 oz

total withdrawal  1,923,993.860         oz

 adjustments: 2/dealer to customer

i) Brinks  2,092,312.540 oz

ii)HSBCL 84,934.870 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.699 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 339.376 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 323 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 22 CONTRACTS HAD 9 NOTICES FILED

ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 31 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST GAINED 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1136

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS UP TO 116,684 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 169 for  845,000 oz

Comex volumes:64.249// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 57,232 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2860 x 5,000 oz = 14,300,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(323) and the number of notices served upon today 169  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 2860 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (323)  – number of notices served upon today (169) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 15,070,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1021.53 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514,501 MILION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A IWTHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 514.501 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Hedge funds cut back trading after LME nickel chaos

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-07-12 10:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Laurence Fletcher
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Hedge funds have cut back positions in some markets that they fear could suddenly become difficult to transact in, following the London Metal Exchange’s decision to void thousands of nickel trades.

The LME’s move in March to cancel eight hours’ worth of trades has pushed a number of hedge funds to reassess the risk they face across their portfolios from human interference upending their positions.

The exchange stepped in to halt a squeeze on a short seller and protect other users from heavy losses after the price of nickel soared by 250% in just a couple of days, to $100,000 a tonne.

Its shift provoked uproar among traders, not only because many lost out on profits but also because it left them with unhedged positions in other metals markets.

Rotterdam-based quantitative hedge fund Transtrend, which trades global futures markets and manages $6.5 billion in assets, told the Financial Times that it had decided to stop trading on the LME “following the nickel debacle.” It added that this decision had led to it running smaller positions in metals than it would otherwise have held.. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/6c8385bf-b477-41f6-bfdc-10044f5ec0d7

END

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

“Whereabouts Unknown”: 3 Arrows Capital Founders Go MIA Amidst Crypto Firm’s Bankruptcy

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 07:45 PM

The founders of 3 Arrows Capital have apparently made a good ole-fashioned run-for-it…

The bankrupt crypto hedge fund founders have not been cooperating in the liquidation process of the firm, according to a Bloomberg report this week. And to do one better, their whereabouts have simply been “unknown” since last Friday. 

Those founders, Kyle Davies and Zhu Su, have not contacted representatives setup to help liquidate the firm by a BVI judge last week, the report says. However, lawyers for the two men have reportedly said they intend on cooperating. 

A photo posted by Bloomberg this week shows the company’s headquarters seemingly abandoned….

A court hearing is set for Tuesday this week, as liquidators seek to stop the “dissipation” of the firm’s assets. 

Lawyers for the liquidators said: “Here, that risk is heightened because a substantial portion of the Debtor’s assets are comprised of cash and digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens, that are readily transferable.”

3AC has been just one of the major firms – joining names like Celsius and Voyager – that has collapsed as a result of the plunge in bitcoin. Insolvency proceedings in the BVI have started, as has a Chapter 15 bankruptcy filing in the US. 

Liquidators went to Three Arrows’ office address in Singapore, which “appeared dormant”. Bloomberg reported:

“…the door was locked, computers were inactive and mail was stuffed under the door. People working in the surrounding offices said they hadn’t seen anyone enter or exit the office recently.”

Lawyers for the two men were on a Zoom call with the liquidators last week, but it was unclear if Zhu and Kyle were even on the call:

“While persons identifying themselves as “Su Zhu” and “Kyle” were present on the Zoom call, their video was turned off and they were on mute at all times with neither of them speaking despite questions being posed to them directly.

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7267

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7281

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN AT 279.45 PTS OR  1.37%

2. Nikkei closed UP 142.11 OR 0.54%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  107.82/Euro RISES TO 1.0059

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.229/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 137.09/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.144%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.24% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.24%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.45//

3j Gold at $1729.30 silver at: 19.00  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN  0  AND 5/8        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.28

3m oil into the 96 dollar handle for WTI and  99 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.07DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9760– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9813well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.960 DOWN 0  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.156  UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.39

Futures Grind Higher With All Eyes On Red-Hot CPI

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 07:57 AM

After yesterday’s last hour stock market puke prompted by a fake CPI “leak” that showed inflation rising more than double digits in June which sent spoos just over 3,800, US index futures advanced ahead of a report that will show inflation hitting a fresh four-decade high according to Bloomberg consensus which expects headline inflation to print 8.8%, ensuring another 75bps rate hike. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.3% by 7:15 a.m. ET after the underlying gauge declined over the past three days. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4% after the tech-heavy index shed 3% this week, reversing most of last week’s gains. The dollar dropped from a 2 year high, bitcoin rose but held below $20,000 and WTI crude oil stabilized at about $96 a barrel after a tumble.

Among notable pre-market movers, Twitter rose 1% after suing Elon Musk over his abandoned $44 billion takeover bid, accusing the billionaire of having buyer’s remorse after his fortune declined. Meanwhile, Atara Biotherapeutics tumbled 36% after the biotech firm gave an update on its multiple sclerosis therapy with Cowen strategists saying that the interim analysis of the ATA188 Phase 2 study was “inconclusive.” Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX US) jumps 9.3% in premarket trading after J William Gurley, a board member and general partner at venture capital firm Benchmark, bought $5.43 million of shares in the company. Gurley’s purchase comes as the online personal-styling platform’s stock has fallen 73% this year.
  • Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA US) shares drop 41% in US premarket trading, after the biotech company gave an update on its multiple sclerosis therapy, with Cowen saying that the interim analysis of the Phase 2 study was “inconclusive” and Roth flagging potential “additional risks.”
  • Humanigen (HGEN US) shares plummet as much as 76% in US premarket trading, after the biotech firm said that its Covid-19 drug trial didn’t achieve statistical significance on the primary endpoint, with Cantor Fitzgerald cutting its rating on Humanigen to neutral from overweight.
  • Keep an eye on Apple (AAPL US) shares as Citi lowers its estimates for the company given cooling consumer spending trends amid macro woes and continued supply chain bottlenecks.
  • Hannon Armstrong (HASI US) stocks could be active as analysts defended the climate-change investment firm after its shares slumped 19% on Tuesday. The losses followed a report from short seller Carson Block’s Muddy Waters Capital that criticized its accounting practices.
  • Watch Alphabet (GOOGL US) stocks as Cowen trims 2022 Google Search and YouTube ad estimates, following checks that suggested that Search is seeing healthy demand but the business is decelerating, largely in line with expectations.

US inflation is projected to have continued to heat up in June, hitting a fresh pandemic peak. The consumer price index probably increased 8.8% from a year earlier, marking the largest jump since 1981, as discussed some banks expected a slightly softer print although others sees headline CPI rising as much as 9.0%. The consumer-price reading will be a major decisive factor for the Fed in its upcoming meeting as it decides how much further it should tighten policy to tame soaring inflation. Its hawkish policy already stoked fears the economy is heading for a recession this year.

“This is widely expected to be a really strong print,” Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “Even if it is not, I don’t think that changes the Fed’s perspective in a couple of weeks. We won’t have enough evidence that inflation is convincingly turning over.”

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth projections for the US economy and warned that a broad-based surge in inflation poses “systemic risks” to both the country and the global economy.

Traders are also on tenterhooks for the latest corporate earnings getting underway this week and monitoring for a brewing energy crisis in Europe if Russia cuts off gas supplies in the fallout from its invasion of Ukraine. After today’s CPI, investor focus will turn to the start of the earnings season, which kicks off tomorrow with major Wall Street banks.

Meanwhile in Europe, the region’s benchmark Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.5% while the Euro Stoxx 50 slumped as much as 1.2% before roughly halving losses, amid deteriorating economic outlook. Shares of insurance companies and automakers led the drop.. FTSE 100 and FTSE MIB lag on the recovery. Autos, insurance and travel are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the biggest movers:

  • Saipem shares tumble as much as 45%, extending Tuesday’s 49% slump, after only 70% of its EU2 billion rights offering was taken up by investors, signaling low confidence in the engineering company’s turnaround plan.
  • Svenska Cellulosa falls as much as 4.1% and DS Smith declines 2.7% as Exane BNP downgrades its ratings on both, saying it anticipates a robust 2Q for packaging, but a correction in pulp prices.
  • Bayer drops as much as 3% after a US appeals court reinstated a lawsuit by a Roundup herbicide user who claims the company failed to warn him of cancer risks.
  • Galp Energia falls as much as 2.8% following its second-quarter production update, with analysts saying volumes were softer than anticipated.
  • Vontobel declines as much as 6%, and EFG falls as much as 5.2% after Citi cut both to sell and kept a buy rating on Julius Baer, saying that it still sees good value in Swiss banks and prefers larger players to independents.
  • Evonik falls as much as 3.9% after Barclays cut its rating to equal-weight, saying that it sees opportunities in Brenntag and Lanxess among European chemicals stocks.
  • Orion gains as much as 7.9% after the pharmaceutical company raised its FY outlook after announcing it plans to work with MSD on developing and commercializing ODM-208, a drug for prostate cancer.
  • Outokumpu gains as much as 6.5% after the stainless steel producer sold the majority of its Long Products business, a transaction which Jefferies and Morgan Stanley describe as positive.
  • Hugo Boss rises as much as 3.1% as Jefferies says the company appears to be outperforming its luxury peers, and that expectations of continued growth, “comfortable” guidance and a successful rebrand are starting to move the market.
  • Verallia gains as much as 3.3% after being initiated with a buy rating at Jefferies, which says the glass-packaging maker’s discount to peers is “unjustified.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by the region’s technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.6%, halting a two-day slide that dragged the benchmark to the lowest level in two years on Tuesday. Tech names such as TSMC, JD.com and Meituan contributed the most to the rally. Information technology was the region’s best-performing sector as the Hang Seng Tech Index bounced back after its recent drops sent the measure into a technical correction.  Taiwan’s benchmark jumped nearly 3% as the government vowed to support the stock market for the first time since the early days of the pandemic. Equities posted moderate gains in South Korea and New Zealand after their central banks hiked interest rates by 50 basis points as expected. Thailand’s stock market was closed for a holiday.  “Central bankers, policy makers all over the world are gonna have to pick their spots on how much inflation they’re prepared to tolerate versus how much a growth downdraft they wanna create,” Ben Powell, chief APAC investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. In addition to today’s data on consumer prices to assess what the Federal Reserve will do next, traders are also monitoring corporate earnings results in Asia for signs of any impact from China’s lockdowns during the second quarter.

Japanese stocks advanced as investors await US data that may show inflation hit a fresh four-decade high. The Topix index rose 0.3% to 1,888.85 at the 3pm close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to 26,478.77. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.9%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,400 rose and 633 fell, while 137 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks will have a hard time finding a sense of direction before the US CPI announcement,” said Mitsushige Akino a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held near its highest level in more than two years and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers as traders awaited US inflation data later on Wednesday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. JPY and SEK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, CHF and AUD outperform. EUR/USD stalls again, declining 6 pips shy of parity before recovering slightly.  Money markets raised bets on the pace of BOE rate hikes after the UK economy grew faster than the median estimate in May to ease fears of a recession. UK GDP rose by a surprisingly robust 0.5% amid a surge in visits to doctors and holiday bookings, after an 0.2% decline in April, a figure that was revised higher. New Zealand’s dollar initially fell and then erased losses after the central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points as economists forecast. The yen underperformed all its Group-of-10 peers amid expectations US CPI will be strong enough to keep wagers high for a continued aggressive rate-hike cycle by the Federal Reserve. Super-long sectors led drop in government bond yields after purchases by the Bank of Japan.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 2.97% after falling two basis points on Tuesday. Cash TSYs are comparatively quiet ahead of today’s CPI release. German and UK curves bear-flatten, underperforming Treasuries. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund back near 200bps.  Gilts and Bunds fell, underperforming Treasuries. Money markets raised bets on the pace of BOE rate hikes after the UK economy grew faster than the median estimate in May to ease fears of a recession.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1.1% higher to trade near $96.90. Most base metals trade in the green; LME lead rises 1.1%, outperforming peers. LME zinc lags, dropping 0.2%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,726/oz

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for June, as well as UK monthly GDP for May and Euro Area industrial production for May. Otherwise from central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making their latest policy decision, and the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,830.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 413.52
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 155.40
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 511.37
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,478.77
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,888.85
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,797.95
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,284.29
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 53,636.37
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,621.56
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,328.61
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.16%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0038
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $100.63/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,726.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 108.15

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The planned reopening of a key Russian gas pipeline next week may be a bigger deal for the euro than the first interest-rate hike in a decade by the ECB. Both are set for July 21. While the ECB’s plans to start lifting rates have been well flagged and hence priced in by markets, there’s more doubt over whether Russia will actually restore gas flows to Europe after maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is completed
  • China will take advantage of the market-based adjustment mechanism of deposit rates and guide financial institutions to transmit the effect of falling deposit rates to their borrowers as part of efforts to lower real lending rates, Zou Lan, head of PBOC’s monetary policy department, says at a briefing
  • The ECB is watching the euro-dollar exchange rate as recent lows can further stoke already record inflation, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy De Galhau

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St but with upside capped amid central bank rate hikes and ahead of upcoming key risk events including Chinese trade and US CPI data. ASX 200 traded indecisively as strength in tech was offset by losses in energy after the recent slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by a weaker currency but with gains limited after a ramp-up in Tokyo COVID cases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained but with the mainland choppy ahead of Chinese trade data, while Hong Kong tech stocks were bolstered after China approved 67 domestic games in July.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Customs said foreign trade is expected to achieve stable growth and that trade growth in May and June reversed the declining trend, but noted that foreign trade faces instabilities and uncertain factors, according to Reuters.
  • “Lanzhou in NW China’s Gansu Province has sealed off its 4 districts for 7 days to curb the latest COVID19 flare-up which started from last Friday and has led to 143 infections as of 10 am on Wed”, according to Global Times.

European bourses are pressured and towards the mid-point of the morning’s parameters as we await US inflation data, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%.  Sectors, are predominently in the red with defensively-inclined names lagging though Energy outperforms and is green amid benchmark action. Stateside, futures are modestly firmer but have been choppy with pre-CPI positioning underway; ES +0.2%. Alphabet (GOOGL) said, on July 12th, that due to the hiring progress already attained, will slow the hiring process for remainder of year, via Reuters; like all Cos, not immune to economic headwinds. Kroger (KR) is launching an annual membership, provides unlimited free deliveries on orders over USD 35 and fuel discounts of up-to USD 1/gallon alongside other savings.

Top European News

  • UK lawmakers are to push ahead with legislation to tear up the post-Brexit trade deal today, according to FT.
  • Network Rail offered workers at two unions pay hikes in a bid to avert further crippling strikes, according to FT.
  • Italy’s Salvini says the League Party is not willing to remain in the government if the 5-Star Party quits, adding that if 5-Star does not back a Thursday confidence vote, Italy should call snap elections. Subsequently, Democratic Party is unwilling to form new governments without the 5-Star Party, according to a party source cited by Reuters.

Geopolitical

  • China’s military said it monitored and drove away a US destroyer which entered the South China Sea Paracel Islands, while it added that the actions of the US military seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security. Furthermore, the US military stated that USS Benfold asserted navigational rights and freedoms near the Paracel Islands consistent with international law, according to Reuters.
  • US Navy says the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group is operating in the South China Sea.
  • Venezuela detained at least three Americans earlier this year accused of attempting to enter the country illegally, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson says results of the negotiations with Saudi Arabia have been promising, sides have an interest to continue talks. Subsequently, Iran President Raisi says it will not retreat from its ‘rightful’ stance in talks to revive the 2015 JCPOA, state TV reported.

Central Banks

  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 2.50%, as expected, and said it remains appropriate to continue to tighten policy, while it will tighten conditions at a pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment. RBNZ added the Committee is resolute in its commitment to ensuring price inflation returns to the 1%-3% target range and it agreed to lift the OCR to a level where it is confident consumer price inflation will settle within the target range but added that once aggregate supply and demand are more balanced, the OCR can return to a lower and more neutral level. Furthermore, the Committee agreed to maintain the approach of briskly lifting the OCR and remained comfortable with the projected path of the OCR it outlined in May, as well as noted that there are near-term upside risks to consumer prices and also medium-term downside risks to economic activity.
  • BoK raised its Base Rate by 50bps to 2.25%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK stated that South Korea’s 2022 growth will moderate further from an earlier projection and inflation will remain high for some time, as well as noted that inflation will surpass the May forecast for the entire of 2022 and that core inflation is to be higher than 4% for a considerable period. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said more policy tightening of 25bps looks appropriate going forward should current inflation continue for the time being and that it is reasonable to expect rates at 2.75%-3.00% by year-end.
  • ECB’s Villeroy says it is not the EUR that is weak but the USD that is strong.

FX

  • Greenback grinds higher ahead of US inflation data, but remains restrained, DXY back above 108.000 within 108.020-390 range.
  • Aussie regroups alongside base metals and awaits labour report for further impetus; AUD/USD approaching 0.6800 vs sub-0.6750 low.
  • Franc forges safe-haven gains vs Dollar and Euro, USD/CHF below 0.9800 and EUR/CHF under 0.9850.
  • Kiwi somewhat deflated after RBNZ maintained half-point tightening pace, guidance and OCR path, NZD/USD capped into 0.6150.
  • Sterling underpinned by above-forecast UK data and remarks from BoE Governor Bailey leaning towards bigger than 25bp hike, Cable straddling 1.1900 and EUR/GBP pivoting 100 and 200 DMAs.
  • Loonie looking for a BoC boost via 75bp rate increase and hawkish guidance, USD/CAD towards the low end of 1.3050-00 band with 1.57bln option expiries rolling off at the round number.
  • Yen undermined by firmer US Treasury yields pre-CPI and post-weak 10-year note the auction, USD/JPY rebounds through 137.00 again.
  • Yuan pares some losses after China’s trade surplus tops consensus and PBoC pledges to up support for real economy; USD/CNH and USD/CNY testing bids and support on either side of 6.7200.

Fixed Income

  • Debt fades from early EU highs irrespective of risk-off sentiment as clock ticks down to key US CPI data.
  • Bunds pull up just ahead of 153.00, Gilts into 116.00 and T-note shy of 119-00.
  • Italian and German supply relatively well received, but impending long bond refunding comes hot on the heels of tepid demand for 10 year issuance.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are bid after a concerted pick-up in the European morning that occurred without any obvious fresh fundamental driver.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.7mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +2.9mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillates +3.2mln (exp. +1.6mln), Cushing +0.3mln.
  • Libya’s Government of National Unity decided to replace the NOC chairman and board, according to a government source. NOC later announced the lifting of the force majeure on exports from the Brega and Zueitina oil terminals, while it added that negotiations were conducted to allow exports from Es Sider port and resume output at the Al Waha and Mellita fields, according to Reuters.
  • Eni (ENI IM) Chair says Italy will be able to replace 50% of Russian gas flows with other sources this winter, and 80% next winter, via Reuters citing a paper.
  • Hungary Foreign Minister says it could purchase up to 700 MCM of gas on the market ahead of the heating season, in addition to long-term supply deal with Russia.
  • IEA OMR: 2023 demand 101.3mln BPD, +2.1mln BPD; led by strong growth in non-OECD countries. 2022 demand cut by 200k BPD, seeing a rise of 1.7mln to 99.2mln BPD
  • Spot gold is modestly firmer managing to capitalise on the session’s bout of USD easing, LME Copper has benefited from the generally constructive APAC tone though participants will remain cognisant of and cautious around the China-COVID situation.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -1.7%, prior -5.4%
  • 08:30: June CPI YoY, est. 8.8%, prior 8.6%; MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 1.0%
  • 08:30: June CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.7%, prior 6.0%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%
  • 08:30: June Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -3.0%, revised -2.9%
  • 08:30: June Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.9%, revised -4.0%
  • 14:00: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 14:00: June Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$75b, prior -$174.2b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m supposed to be off for the next three days with the family but given how busy things are I’m delaying two of the days until August. However I can’t escape a Theme Park outing tomorrow so I’m still doing that. I hate Theme Parks and rollercoasters with a passion. Readers might remember the last time I went I had an argument with someone who pushed in with his whole family in the queue ahead of me. I was most disgruntled at the end of a long day and vowed never to return. However my kids love them. If it were up to me my preferences would dominate and we wouldn’t go but unfortunately my selfless wife puts our kids first. Probably a good thing!!

I’ll be here now for the all important US CPI today but I’ll miss the ceremonial start of earnings season tomorrow with this week seeing a small selection of major US financials and consumer packaged goods companies reporting. My colleague Binky has just released his full preview, available here. He expects earnings to beat in the low single digits percentage region, below the long-run historical average of 5%. Earnings are likely to be 3.1% qoq along with downward revisions to forward estimates. Heading into earnings season, estimates have been revised lower for every sector but energy, which has experienced upgrades. Using a bottom-up approach, yoy EPS growth will come in at 5.7%.

Heading into CPI and earnings, after markets had climbed a wall of worry since mid-June, they seem to be losing a bit of footing again over the last few days as fears of a recession dominate again, alongside fears of aggressive rate hikes by central banks, rising Covid cases in China and the prospect of Russia cutting off Europe’s gas. This gloomy backdrop saw the S&P 500 (-0.92%) lose ground for a 3rd day running, whilst those fears of weakening demand sent Brent crude oil prices back beneath $100/bbl and also led to day two of a new fresh sizeable rally in sovereign bonds. Oil is little changed in Asia trade with Brent and WTI futures almost flat at $99.76/bbl and $95.99/bbl respectively as we go to press.

However, today’s main focus will almost certainly be on the US CPI release for June, which will set the stage for the Fed’s next decision in just two weeks’ time. Remember that it was last month’s much stronger-than-expected report that sparked a tumultuous market reaction that culminated in the Fed moving by 75bps at a single meeting for the first time since 1994, having previously only signalled a 50bps move. So any further surprises today could have a big impact. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for an above-consensus monthly reading for both headline CPI (+1.3%) and core CPI (+0.6%), which in turn would take the year-on-year headline CPI up to its highest level since 1981, at +9.0%.

Although we’re expecting another strong inflation print today, ahead of that release there were actually growing signs of respite on the inflation front thanks to further losses amongst a number of key commodities. Brent Crude (-7.11%) and WTI (-7.93%) oil prices saw substantial losses, copper prices (-4.10%) hit a 19-month low and gold (-0.46%) hit a 9-month low. Indeed, the only major exception to that pattern was the usual suspect of European natural gas (+4.92%) which just about reversed the previous day’s decline following cuts to Norwegian capacity. Our research colleagues in Frankfurt published a detailed note yesterday on the gas supply issue (link here), where they run through 3 scenarios of how things might evolve, including what happens if Russia completely turns off the gas taps to Germany after the maintenance period that would involve gas being rationed during the winter months.

Although many will welcome the decline in those commodities mentioned above, the bad news is that the reason they’re declining is because of recession fears, and yesterday saw a number of additional recessionary indicators flash with growing alarm. One in particular is the 2s10s curve, which has inverted before every one of the last 10 US recessions, and remains near its most inverted of this cycle so far at -8.5bps after dipping below -12bps intraday. We would stress that while we are the yield curve’s biggest fan, it usually takes a minimum of three quarters from inversion to recession so we still think it may take a bit of time from the first inversion in March to confirm the almost inevitable recession.

For the 1s10s and the 2s5s curve, it was much the same story of being the most inverted so far this cycle, and the 3m10s curve reached its flattest since November 2020. And whilst the Fed have told us to focus on their preferred near-term forward spread (18m3m minus 3m), even that closed beneath 100bps for the first time so far this year at 94bps (from a peak of 270bps in early April), so these measures are all trending in the wrong direction from a recessionary standpoint.

In terms of the absolute yield moves, the risk-off tone saw them move lower on both sides of the Atlantic. 10yr Treasury yields fell -2.4bps to 2.97% albeit having being as much as -9.6bps lower intraday. There was a discrete bounce in longer-dated Treasury yields following the 2bp tail in the 10yr auction. Yields are fairly stable in Asian trading. Meanwhile in Europe, those on 10yr bunds (-11.3bps), OATs (-12.8bps) and BTPs (-9.8bps) all fell back too, as concerns about the economic situation led investors to price in a less aggressive pace of monetary tightening over the coming months, particularly from the ECB. That also meant that the Euro itself moved ever closer to parity against the US Dollar yesterday, and you had to look to 5 decimal places to see that it just avoided that milestone, with an intraday low of $1.00003 during the European morning, ending the day just a hair lower versus the dollar, down -0.03% at $1.0037.

European equities staged a modest comeback from Monday’s selloff, while US equities ended lower after flirting with gains all day. The STOXX 600 gained +0.49%, with the DAX performing a touch better at +0.57%, bringing the STOXX 600 to just under flat for the week, while the DAX is still -0.84% lower on the week. The S&P 500 fell -0.92%, after trading near unchanged most of the day. Theories abounded for the late turnaround. Underlying market technicals pointed to potential algorithmic selling programs, whilst rumours spread in some circles that the CPI report was leaked and revealed a +10% print. Officials disabused us of the latter, but it nevertheless speaks to the heightened anxiety markets are trading with around inflationary data. In terms of the breakdown, energy shares (-2.03%) were the clear underperformer, but a wide-breadth of shares took a dip lower in the afternoon, sending the NASDAQ (-0.95%), FANG+ (-1.01%), and Russell 2000 (-0.22%) all lower on the day. So no clear macro driver for equities yesterday, but again, today’s CPI will be instructive about the near-term path.

Overnight in Asia equity markets are trading higher after recent losses. As I type, the Hang Seng (+0.81%) is leading gains across the region with the Kospi (+0.71%), Shanghai Composite (+0.36%), CSI (+0.26%), and the Nikkei (+0.33%) all trading up. Looking ahead, equity futures in the US point to a steady start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.21%) moving higher.

Moving on to monetary policy action, the Bank of Korea (BOK) increased rates by 50bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.25% in order to help pullback inflation from a 24-yr high of 6%. The unprecedented rate hike size comes even as the central bank forecasts the country’s growth rate to lag “below the May forecast of 2.7%. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in an expected move also increased its official cash rate (OCR) by 50bps for a third straight meeting to 2.5%.

Staying in Asia, another risk that’s been in a few headlines again is Covid. Partly this is because of the ongoing situation in China, where a steady stream of cases have been reported over recent days. But in addition to that, the US is considering whether to expand the recommendation of the second booster to all adults in light of the BA.5 omicron variant’s spread, and White House coronavirus coordinator Ashish Jha said that these discussions “have been going on for a while”. Of particular concern to officials, the BA.5 seems to evade immunity provided from prior infections.

Here in the UK, it’ll be another eventful day on the political scene as the first ballot of MPs takes place in the Conservative leadership election, which will also decide the next Prime Minister. 8 candidates will be on today’s ballot, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is currently leading when it comes to MP’s endorsements, with yesterday seeing him gain that of Deputy PM Dominic Raab, among others. Candidates will need the support of at least 30 MPs today to progress onto the next ballot that takes place tomorrow.

There wasn’t much data yesterday, but the releases we did get only added to negative sentiment. First the German ZEW survey saw the expectations reading fall to its lowest level since the sovereign debt crisis at -53.8 (vs. -40.5 expected), whilst the current situation reading fell to -45.8 (vs. -34.5 expected). Separately, the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US fell to 89.5 (vs. 92.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for June, as well as UK monthly GDP for May and Euro Area industrial production for May. Otherwise from central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making their latest policy decision, and the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book.

WEDNESDAY /TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.83 PTS OR 0.09%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.79 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed UP 142.11 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.31%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7267    /Oil DOWN TO 96.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 99.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7274 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7281: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

That did not take long:  China scraps firs first COVID vaccine mandate in just 48 hrs after a furious social response

(zerohedge)

Beijing Scraps China’s First COVID Vaccine Mandate In Just 48 Hours After Furious Social Response

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 10:05 PM

On paper, the US is the land of the free and home of the brave, while China is a tyrannical, authoritarian state where individuals have no rights and where the political oligarchy always gets its way. In reality, it’s usually the opposite, especially when the people remember they are not snowflakes.

With much the US and Europe bitching and moaning but ultimately acquiescing to every incremental round of mandatory experimental mRNA-based covid vaccines (we are not even talking about those mentally unstable they/thems who demand the government strip them of their last freedom and who will be wearing a mask in their grave to signal not only their profound virtue but their willingness to lap up any amount of fecal matter shoveled by the government), a few million non-snowflake Chinese showed how it can be done.

As Bloomberg reports, last week, Beijing’s city leadership rolled out China’s first Covid-19 vaccine mandate last week. The policy made boosters mandatory for some professions, while entry to busy public venues like movie theaters and gyms was restricted to the vaccinated. Unlike Europe and the US where such mandates are now a way of life as the population is too terrified to oppose the state, in Beijing the public reacted far less snowflakily, with many residents turning to social media to declare the mandate an illegal usurpation of their rights. Beijing’s response was just as quick: Less than 48 hours after announcing the policy, the city government rescinded it.

Instead, people will be able to enter all public venues if they can simply provide a negative Covid test result that’s no older than 72 hours and have their temperature checked, an unidentified official said in an interview with state-backed Beijing Daily that was published late Thursday night. The city will continue to promote vaccination on a voluntary, informed and consent basis, the official said, something which just one year ago would have sounded like an alien world of utopian liberty to American citizens.

The policy, announced Wednesday and intended to come into effect on July 11, would have limited entry to public venues such as cinemas, museums, and theaters to only vaccinated people, and required workers in certain professions to get booster shots.

“The reversal shows the power of public opinions,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief at the Communist Party-backed Global Times and an influential commentator, said on his official Weibo account. “The Chinese society is dominated by government. They timely backed up in the face of a public pushback. That means they accept the public’s view of the vaccine mandate as illegal.”A health worker takes a swab sample at a swab collection site in Beijing on July 7. Photographer: Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images

As Bloomberg’s Adam Minter writes, while China’s authoritarians rarely back down because of public opposition, by doing so in this case, Beijing’s authorities offered a reminder of how carefully they monitor public opinion and struggle to manage it. Indeed, it’s also a reminder that at the end of the day, it’s the people who hold the power, no matter how diligently the propaganda press will try to convince the people otherwise, and no matter how armed to the teeth the state’s enforcement powers may be.

By folding to public pressure, Bloomberg notes that Beijing “inadvertently revealed that their ability to control and channel public anger isn’t absolute.” The media giant then adds that “like their counterparts in democratic countries, China’s leaders must account for populist anger. And at a time of surging Chinese nationalism, those populist currents can have damaging consequences for peace and stability in Asia and the world.”

Which is hilarious because whereas “dictatorial” China reversed on vaccine mandates in just 2 days, “democratic counterparts” can impose any amount of health experiments on the population at will and largely without objections.

And while “Democratic” nations, especially those run (for now) by so-called “Democrats” have become completely oblivious to public opinion – especially if it opposes their ruthless, authoritarian ambitions – it is the authoritarian states that actually do care: as Bloomberg notes, the internet — and especially social media — complicated both tasks, requiring huge investments in human and machine monitoring and content-generation. In 2014, the Communist Party-owned Beijing News reported that public and private Chinese entities employ more than 2 million public opinion “analysts.” Among other roles, they “collect the opinions and attitudes of netizens, organize them into reports, and submit them to decision makers.” These days, even relatively minor agencies — such as the Beijing International Horticultural Expo Coordination Bureau — purchase public opinion analysis.

Finally, as Goldman’s Rich Provorotsky writes in his morning note today, “although unlikely to change abruptly, something to watch if population’s frustration leads to a change in zero covid policy?” That assumption may soon be tested, while Beijing scrapped mandatory vaccines, Shanghai may be facing another round of lockdowns: here’s Bloomberg.

Tension is spreading through Shanghai as residents watch the Covid-19 caseload tick higher, fueling fears they’re headed back into lockdown little more than five weeks after exiting a bruising two-month ordeal.

The city reported 59 new infections for Monday, the fourth day in a row case numbers have held above 50. The sharp rise from single digits about a week ago follows the detection of the more contagious BA.5 sub-strain of the omicron variant, which has triggered two additional rounds of mass testing between Tuesday and Thursday this week across nine of the financial hub’s 16 districts, as well as other areas where cases have been found.

Bottom line: China’s strict Covid Zero approach is “once again being tested as outbreaks flare across the country amid the arrival of a sub-variant that has fueled rising caseloads elsewhere” only this time the public may be sensing that opposition to the highly unpopular government response to the Wu-flu is beyond the required tipping point and following in the footsteps of Beijing, tens of millions of Shanghai residents may soon take matters into their own hands/

end

Outrage After Henan Protestors Violently Removed From Outside Bank

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Robert Hryniak9:18 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

Government does not care about people. This is a reality. Change is badly needed and in this hour of need moral authority to lead id sadly lacking as none are fit for the calling. The coming chaos will invent the changes needed more by chance that designed control. History is never linear in progression 



Outrage After Henan Protestors Violently Removed From Outside Bank

People hold banners and chant slogans during a protest at the entrance to a branch of China's central bank in Zhengzhou in central China's Henan Province, on July 10, 2022. (Yang/AP Photo)

A large number of Chinese bank customers protesting over frozen deposits were attacked by security forces in plainclothes in the capital of China’s central Henan Province on Sunday. It’s one of the biggest protests being suppressed in recent years.

Photos and videos of the violence that the depositors suffered have spread quickly on Chinese social media, sparking public outrage.

Since April, the funds of four rural banks in Henan and two in Anhui have been frozen by the state, resulting in about 400,000 depositors being unable to withdraw money online, involving 40 billion yuan (US$5.95 billion) in deposits. The bank customers have showed up in person in front of the banks to demand their money.

A smaller protest in May was also crushed by police. In that case, Henan authorities used a health code for preventing the spread of COVID-19 to restrict the depositors’ travel and gathering.

On Sunday, about 2,000–3,000 depositors were peacefully demonstrating in front of Zhengzhou branch of the People’s Bank of China. Many were holding banners and chanting, “Henan Bank, return my deposit!”

Along with their demands, the protestors also voiced their opposition to “the violent treatment of depositors by Henan police … the beating of depositors by the Henan provincial government in collusion with the local gangs”

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The protestors further demanded “serious investigations into the officials who are responsible for turning the depositors’ health code red in Henan”, and the depositors also named the provincial Chinese Communist Party committee member Lou Yangsheng over the red health code incident.

Brutal Suppression

Around noon on Sunday, groups of people in plainclothes—dressed in white and black—violently dragged and beat many of the depositors up, forcefully putting them in buses with uniformed police inside sending them to multiple locations for detention.

A bank customer named Zhang Jie (alias) told The Epoch Times on Sunday that the local authorities didn’t show up to communicate with them, but a large number of plainclothes police were dispatched to surround them. “There were about three or four thousand uniformed and plainclothes policemen who surrounded us,” Zhang said.

She said groups of people dressed in white and black came. “I couldn’t tell whether they were gang members or plainclothes police,” Zhang said.

“They came at us, dragged all the depositors down the steps, kicked, and beat us up. Some of the depositors were injured in the eyes, and some were injured in the nose,” she said.

The depositors were angry because they want is to get back their legal deposits, and they were seeking to protect their rights, Zhang said. They are vulnerable people, but these plainclothes policemen treated them all violently, she said.

“There were elderly people, children, handicapped people, and pregnant women among us. Those men in white and black come over, dragged everyone no matter who they were. There was a person in a wheelchair who was also being violently carried away, and a pregnant woman was also taken away by police by force,” Zhang said.

“Almost 2,000 of us were arrested, and then they dragged us onto the more than 40 buses at the scene, and then the uniformed (police) on the buses started to restrain us,” she said.

No Trust in the Regime

The videos of the police violence on the depositors have been widely circulating on Chinese social media Weibo, triggering public anger.

“It’s horrific that the group of men in white beat people with iron rods. Handicapped people were beaten unconscious, and some people’s eyes were bleeding. They didn’t spare women and pregnant women. Heaven is watching, and every revolution starts with bloodshed,” one Weibo post said.

Other netizens said that the actions of the Henan authorities were like that of a triad. “In broad daylight, several unidentified persons beat and kicked depositors! This is an atrocity”; “Henan triad!”; “They don’t treat ordinary people as human beings”; “This is similar to the Tangshan violent incident”; “It turns out that the biggest gang is themselves (authorities).”

There are also many people who saw what happened to Henan bank customers and their legally deposited funds and started to question whether their deposits were safe. “So, is it still safe to save money in the bank? Or shall we all keep money at home?”

One said in a post, “They have lost people’s trust and can never regain it.”

Lin Cenxin and Chang Chun contributed to this report.

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Alex Wu is a U.S.-based writer for The Epoch Times focusing on Chinese society, Chinese culture, human rights, and international relations.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EURO VS DOLLAR:

Answer to the question:  It is not an energy problem but a central bank problem! Too slow to raise rates

(Russel Clark)

Is The Euro An Energy Problem Or A Central Bank Problem?

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 07:20 AM

By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack

As mentioned in the last post, the huge break in energy prices between the US and the rest of the world could explain the extreme dollar strength we have seen this year.

Part of the problem I have with that is that the corollary of that trade is energy exporters should see a boost from the improved terms of trade. Australia is one of the biggest LNG exporters in the world, and it has not seen any currency appreciation.

There is another way of looking at currency markets that would better explain this behaviour. To generalise, central banks control short term interest rates, and the market control long term rates. When 2 year bond rates diverge radically from central bank rates, its the market’s way of saying inflation is way stronger than expected, and the central bank needs to do something about it. You can see that the market told the Fed to cut to close to zero when Covid hit, and has been telling them to raise rates since late 2021, which they have now followed through on.

Australia got the same signal from the bond market, but has been much tardier to raise rates.

Australia has typically had higher interest rates than the US, this tardiness in raising rates is probably explaining a lot of the currency weakness.

So if central banks tardiness is driving a currency like the Australian dollar, what is it saying about Europe?

We are going to use the German 2 Year Bond yield (so we can ignore risk spreads) and we can see the the ECB has usually followed the bond market pretty closely. But so far this year, they seem to be asleep at the wheel.

Switzerland offers a good counterpoint to the ECB – raising rates to match the sell off in bond yields.

This has led to the Swiss Franc appreciating against the Euro substantially this year.

The irony of the situation is that during the deflationary decades of 2010s, central bankers spent all their time dreaming up new and innovative ways to try and create inflation. Now that inflation has returned, all they need to do in raise interest rates, and they seem to have forgotten how.

end

Euro Parity to the dollar:

China will probably pull the Euro once it breaks parity with the dollar.

(Simon White)

Euro Parity Will Probably Be Short-Lived Thanks To China

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 06:30 AM

By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets live commentator and reporter

The vulnerabilities of Europe and the euro are well known. Contrarily, the euro is unlikely to spend too long below parity, before the halting recovery in China gains momentum and supports the European economy.

The euro looks very likely to sink below the dollar parity level for the first time in 20 years. While that is the story today, it’s really been a dollar story over the last year. The euro is only the fourth weakest G-10 currency versus the USD since June 2021, when the DXY started rising.

The Fed remains the most dominant influence on the dollar. The best leading indicator for the currency I have found is the real yield curve, which has been steepening as short-term real yields have fallen by more than long-term ones, pointing to the stronger USD.

The relationship, if it continues to hold, suggests the dollar may not be quite done yet. But we can also see the real yield curve has started to flatten, which may mean the USD is nonetheless nearing some sort of top.

This would take some pressure off the euro — but not yet — and a move below parity is still very likely, with some inevitable follow-through as FX option levels are no longer protected by dealers.

The problems of Europe are well known. The economy is sclerotic, and the collapse in real money growth to below zero implies a recession is all but guaranteed. Europe’s energy dependence is also well discussed, and the euro-zone’s trade balance has slipped into deficit for the first time since the 2012 crisis. This is another drag, although the current account remains in surplus, buoyed by net income inflows.

It is easy to paint a doom-laden picture for the euro, but markets tend to do the opposite when fear or greed is extreme. Relative trends are what matters for currencies. While real money growth is falling in Europe, it is falling much faster in the US (from a higher level). EUR/USD also looks overdone versus real interest-rate differentials, which have started to rise in the euro’s favor.

But it’s China that may prove to be a decisive arm of support in the coming months. The recovery there is faltering somewhat at the moment, but real money growth (deflated by PPI) gives a very good lead on European growth (proxied by the manufacturing PMI).  Further momentum in China’s recovery will promise to help stabilize Europe and support the euro.

END

A good one:  the ECB should seek price stability and stabilize the Euro. Thus it must raise rates to save the Euro(Dr Lacalle)

The ECB Must Follow Its Mandate

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The European Central Bank should be hugely concerned about two pieces of news. The euro is on the verge of parity with the US dollar and has accumulated a drop of 17% since 2021, more than 35% since 2008. On the other hand, inflation in the eurozone reached 8.6% in June, 5% excluding the energy and food components. Inflation in more than six eurozone countries, including Spain, is already in double digits with core CPI at multi-decade highs.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, June inflation was 3.4% with core at 1.9%. Switzerland relies on imports for gas, commodities, and supply chains as much as its neighbors, but it has not engaged in massive printing of its currency.

The euro is the greatest monetary success of the last 150 years, and it cannot be jeopardized by risking the independence of the European Central Bank. It is an elevated risk and those of us who want it to remain a reserve currency and a success are concerned.

image source

The balance of the ECB is 69.5% of the GDP of the eurozone, when that of the Federal Reserve is 37% of the GDP of the US and the Bank of England’s is 39% of the UK GDP. However, the euro is not the world’s reserve currency. The US Federal Reserve is the only central bank that pays attention to the global demand for US dollars and despite this, it has also made the enormous mistake of expanding money supply well above demand and, thereby, triggering inflation.

Let us not forget that prices do not go up all at once for the same amount of currency issued. One or two prices may rise for exogenous reasons, but not all rise unless the purchasing power of the currency is destroyed by printing without control. As Frank Shostak reminds, inflation is money supply growth, not prices denominated in money.

A weak euro and rising inflation are extremely worrying factors because in June 2021 the increase in broad money supply (M3) in the eurozone was 8.3% annualized, with M1 (currency in circulation and overnight deposits) increasing by 11.8%. In other words, the increase in money supply (M3) was still 16% higher than during the so-called “Draghi bazooka”. In May 2022 it is still growing above 5.6% with GDP rebounding a mere 2.6% (consensus estimates).

Why was there no “inflation” between 2009 and 2019? First, there was. We cannot forget that when policymakers told us that “there was no inflation” the accumulated loss of purchasing power of the euro was 74% (from 1991 to 2021).

Although the annual CPI remained contained, there was enormous asset inflation as the rising supply of currency went into sovereign debt and financial assets. Of course, housing, and non-replaceable goods and services prices skyrocketed, but nothing like 2020. The increase in money supply not only soared to exceed 12% (M3) but was mostly directed to non-productive public current spending. The eurozone and the United States flirted ever-so-slightly with Argentina’s monetary policy, and, with it, inflation skyrocketed.

In any case, the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, but the euro is nowhere close. According to the Bank of International Settlements, most global transactions are made in US dollars, followed – far behind – by the euro. Additionally, the euro is the only currency of developed countries with a risk of redenomination (someone may decide to break it up). That is why it is key to defend the unequivocal mandate of the ECB: Price stability, that is, the solidity of the euro as a common currency.

The global demand for US dollars increases when the Federal Reserve raises rates, it attracts more demand towards the greenback. However, in the eurozone, weakening the euro makes imports much more expensive and the eurozone finds itself with a record trade deficit – which is the equivalent of buying dollars and selling euros – of 16.4 billion euros.

Of course, the energy factor is relevant, but policymakers cannot use it as an excuse to destroy the purchasing power of the greatest monetary success in recent history, the euro. Commodities and imports purchased in a weaker currency make the trade deficit situation much worse. Let us not forget that the eurozone posted an exceptionally low inflation (measured as CPI) when oil and gas prices soared in different periods of 2012-2014.

The weakness of the euro should not be taken lightly. Those who repeat the fallacious mantra that a weak currency benefits exports should look at the rising cost of imports, the record trade deficit, and the slump in real wages.

A trade deficit -selling euros, buying dollars- together with governments that refuse to reduce their expenses and structural deficits -additional consumption of more new currency units- and a plan of European Next Generation funds that is going to be monetized for the most part -greater consumption of monetary reserves- can be a lethal combination if we add a central bank that maintains negative real rates -more inflationary pressure- and continues to increase money supply well above demand.

A weak euro means lower purchasing power of real wages and deposits of eurozone citizens, i.e., more poverty.

Nobody wants to work for a weak currency and the euro should not be one.

There is no advantage in defending inflationism. It impoverishes citizens, punishes the efficient sectors, and destroys confidence in the currency. Criticizing the slowness of the ECB’s actions is not anti-European. What is anti-European is inflationism, impoverishing all.

It is extremely important that the European Central Bank fulfills its mandate, which is price stability.

The ECB’s mandate is not that Spain or Italy finance themselves artificially cheap while accumulating enormous deficits and imbalances at the cost of impoverishing salaries and savings, it is price stability. What has destroyed Europe for centuries has always been inflationism.

The ECB’s mandate is not to disguise the budgetary incompetence of governments or to make excuses for high inflation, its mandate is to defend the real wages and deposits of the families of the eurozone while maintaining price stability.

It is key that the Central Bank raises rates because the problem is not a moderate increase, but the excess of debt and risk accumulated during years of negative rates, an unjustifiable monetary aberration. Interest rates are the price of risk and artificially depressing them incentivized excessive risk and debt.

It is essential that the European Central Bank stops the debt monetization madness because its mandate is not to disguise sovereign risk, but price stability. The anomaly is not bond spreads of a 100 or 300 basis points in some peripheral economies, but the lunacy of previously artificially forcing negative yields on sovereign bonds.

The anomaly is not to have spreads commensurate with the solvency and credibility of the issuer, the anomaly was accumulating up to eleven trillion euros of debt with negative yields from issuers with decreasing solvency and credit credibility.

Normalizing monetary policy does not generate “a speculative attack” when credit credibility is strong. What was a speculative attack was disguising risk and excess debt by monetizing 100% of the net issuances of sovereign borrowers.

It is essential that the European Central Bank understands that the survival of the euro depends on containing the constant increase in the consumption of monetary reserves of governments that already represent more than 50% of the GDP of the economies. It must understand the following:

Monetary policy has gone from being a tool to buy time and make structural reforms to being a tool to avoid them.

With the extremely dangerous perverse incentive to spend more without control and monetize it, impoverishing everyone, the credibility of the institution, of the currency and the transmission mechanism that allows a strong private economy are endangered, because the excess of debt is subsidized, while savings and prudent investment are penalized. It is the unequivocal recipe for stagnation and structural worsening of an economy where the crowding-out effect of the public sector on the private sector is inadvertently encouraged through monetary policy. This leads to lower productivity, lower growth, and more debt.

Investors should not care if the stock markets and bonds suffer a correction after the excess of optimism and complacency of recent years.

Market participants should prefer that the ECB reinforces its independence, defends the currency and its citizens than scratch a couple of additional percentage points from a portfolio, because the alternative, stagflation, or outright crisis, do much more harm to more people throughout the eurozone.

One day the members of the central bank will realize that those who defend the euro and the eurozone are not those who applaud inflationism, fattening deficits, and the destruction of the currency’s purchasing power, but those of us who want the world to continue valuing the euro as a powerful global alternative. Probably when that time comes it will be too late and the alternatives will come from other currencies.

Destroying the purchasing power of currency is not a social policy. It is the most antisocial. It is impoverishing everyone.

The independence of the ECB should not be in doubt, neither its respect for its unequivocal mandate.

UKChaos at Heathrow and the Airport has asked the airlines to stop selling summer tickets(zerohedge)

London’s Heathrow Airport Caps Daily Passengers At 100,000

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 02:45 AM

London’s Heathrow Airport asked airlines Tuesday to stop selling summer tickets as travel chaos worsens amid severe staffing shortages

“Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey.

“We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September. Similar measures to control passenger demand have been implemented at other airports both in the UK and around the world,” Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said in a statement.

The new limit will be 100k daily passengers through the global aviation hub, and considering the departing seat average of around 104k — this means 4k passengers will be cut from flights daily

“By making this intervention now, our objective is to protect flights for the vast majority of passengers at Heathrow this summer and to give confidence that everyone who does travel through the airport will have a safe and reliable journey and arrive at their destination with their bags.

“We recognise that this will mean some summer journeys will either be moved to another day, another airport or be cancelled and we apologise to those whose travel plans are affected,” Holland-Kaye continued. 

He also said airport staffing and airline pilot shortages are a twin-fold blow for the travel industry, primarily responsible for flight disruptions over the last several months. 

British Airways recently slashed 28,000 flights due to staff shortages. A spokesperson for the airline told The Independent last week that trimming thousand of flights from its schedule will allow the airline to be more flexible and minimize delays and cancelations during the peak travel season. 

Heathrow’s cap of 100k daily passengers and airlines reducing flights appears to be the move to restore confidence in European flying. 

So what happens if this cunning planning doesn’t work and sparks even more travel disruptions?

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/GERMAN GAS

Looks like there is doubt on the reopening of NordStream1 even as Canada grants a sanctions waiver to that stranded turbine

(zerohedge).

Gazprom Casts Doubt On Reopening Nord Stream Even As Canada Grants Sanctions Waiver For Stranded Turbines

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 01:43 PM

Russian state energy giant Gazprom announced Wednesday that it “cannot guarantee good functioning of Nord Stream pipeline” to Germany, saying it’s still as yet unclear and unknown whether a “critical” turbine engine would be returned from repair in Canada. This two days after Nord Stream halted natural gas flow on July 11 for scheduled maintenance – with all eyes to be on the July 22nd scheduled day that gas is supposed to come back online, or maybe not – based on the new Gazprom statement. Europe, and Germany in particular is on edge over fears Vladimir Putin plans to ‘weaponize’ the pipeline, using the maintenance as cover to halt gas to Germany indefinitely in retribution for the EU’s far-reaching anti-Russia sanctions.

A crucial component to the ensuring the pipeline’s safe operation, Gazprom says, has been held up in Canada at the Siemens Energy facility in Montreal which is the only place in the world capable of servicing and repairing it. But in being in Canada, the gas-turbine engines which had been used for over a decade to pressurize the Nord Stream pipeline, have fallen under Canadian sanctions crosshairs.

The Monday shutoff came after already last month Gazprom reduced deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to Germany by 60%, citing technical problems in urgent need of repair and updates.

The fresh Gazprom statement casting doubt on Nord Stream’s reopening was issued despite the Canadian government softening its positions on the sanctions. 

“Global Affairs Canada granted the German industrial giant Siemens Energy an exemption under Canada’s Russia sanctions for two years,” The Globe and Mail is reporting.

This authorizes Siemens to to move forward with the repairs and send the turbines.

But Gazprom is still expressing uncertainty over Canadian sanctions, apparently taking the opportunity to instill more fear and anxiety in German officials:

In a statement Wednesday on Twitter, Gazprom said it “does not possess any documents that would enable Siemens to get the gas turbine engine… out of Canada.”

It added that “in these circumstances, it appears impossible to reach an objective conclusion on further developments regarding the safe operation” of a compressor station at the Russian end of the pipeline.

Since the latest interruption in European gas supply, EU natural gas prices have soared to triple the cost of US natural gas (hindered of course by the fact that the Freeport LNG Terminal is closed)…

On Wednesday Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the sanctions waiver for the turbines “a very difficult decision” – but said it was necessary to go around the government’s own sanctions in this case as it would end up hurting European allies and their populations.

“The sanctions are aimed at Putin and his enablers and aren’t designed to harm our allies and their populations,” Trudeau said in a press briefing. The Zelensky government in Ukraine has lately been lobbying hard for Trudeau to maintain a strict line against circumventing the sanctions, apparently to no avail.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

This will cause escalating strikes

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:43 AM (20 minutes ago)
to

7/12/22 
By WarNews 24/7 
Translated from Greek

A warning of “immediate armed conflict with the US and its allies” was addressed by Russia after the powerful blow received at Novaya Kakhovka by the MLRS HIMARS with coordinates given, according to the Russians, by an American satellite.

The mood is heavy in Moscow as the Ukrainians now often strike with HIMARS in Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk. The Russians claim they are striking civilians and deep within cities with the apparent intention of terrorizing the population.

The Russians themselves are talking about a major disaster in the region. In addition to the Russian base which was destroyed, there are seven dead, 40 injured and many civilians trapped under the rubble, including children. There are also reports of several dead Russian soldiers and high-ranking officers.

“As a result of the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Nova Kakhovka, there are dead and dozens of wounded.

The market, hospitals and residential buildings were also damaged,” said the head of the military-civil administration.

Sergei Mironov, called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in relation to the shelling of Novaya Kakhovka by Ukrainian troops.

“I propose to convene a meeting of the UN Security Council in connection with the bombing of Nova Kakhovka… The responsibility for this barbaric act of terrorism against the civilian population lies with Washington and its puppets from Kiev ,” he stressed.

Earlier, the head of the military-civil administration of the Kakhovka region, Volodymyr Leontiev, directly blamed the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky for the death of civilians in the town of Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson region.

Characteristic of the strike is that this morning warehouses on Novaya Kakhovka were still burning and exploding. The facilities were hit on the night of July 11 by MLRS HIMARS.

See exactly what happened yesterday

Ukrainians bomb Russian bases with M142 HIMARS and M270: Loud explosions – Problem for Russia (vid, upd)

“We are on the brink of open military confrontation” 
“The United States and its allies are on the brink of an open military conflict with Moscow, which will be fraught with nuclear tensions,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said today after the Kherson attack.

“Having escalated the Ukrainian crisis and unleashed a violent hybrid confrontation with Russia, Washington and its allies are teetering dangerously on the brink of an open military confrontation with our country, meaning immediate armed conflict between nuclear powers.

A confrontation would be fraught with nuclear escalation,” the statement said.

It is the first time Moscow has used such rhetoric.

Zakharova also criticized Japan’s efforts to label Russia as a country making nuclear threats.

“It is unacceptable to try to distort the logic of deterrence, on which Russia’s official statements on nuclear issues are based, for propaganda purposes, as well as to portray us as a country threatening to use nuclear weapons,” he stressed.

“We have taken into account the recent anti-Russian statements of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, including his controversial statements on the issue of nuclear weapons. Its focus and tone is confusing. In particular, in order to justify the move to choose Hiroshima as the host city during the G7 summit, a remark was made that there was no better alternative than that city in a situation where “Russia’s use of nuclear weapons and nuclear threats are reality” , the statement added.

American satellite targeted Nova Kakhovka 
“Kyiv received coordinates for the US MLRS HIMARS strikes on the territory of the Kherson region from the United States. Three days before the strike, the Novaya Kakhovka area had been scanned by the American Worldview-2 satellite,” Russian media reported.

And they add:

“According to reports, a US satellite scanned the Nova Kakhovka region on July 8, and on the night of July 11-12, a massive attack on the city was carried out by Ukrainian military formations using US-supplied HIMARS MLRS.

Earlier, the Pentagon had explicitly stated that it intended to provide Kyiv with information to strike targets on the territory of the “occupied” regions of Ukraine, so that “expensive ammunition” would not be spent unnecessarily.

The head of the military-political administration of the Kakhovka region, Vladimir Leontyev, compared the consequences of Ukraine’s strike on Novaya Kakhovka to an explosion in Beirut. According to him, the Ukrainians knew that there were mineral fertilizers in the warehouses that were hit, and they deliberately hit them to cause as much destruction as possible in the city.

“The magnitude of the destruction is extremely large… We have to dismantle the rubble. There are many people under the ruins,” he added.

Meanwhile, V. Zelensky’s adviser, Arestovich, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out 12 strikes with MLRS HIMARS missiles.

New attack with HIMARS 
According to local reports, an ammunition depot located at the Donetsk transport plant exploded.

Immediately afterwards there was smoke and secondary explosions in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk.

“The MLRS Himars system fired at least six missiles at the town of Stepano-Krynka, about 30 kilometers east of Donetsk. As a result of the strike, there are a significant number of injured and casualties.

Three people died and 39 were injured as a result of the attack by Ukrainian forces in Stepano-Krynka. It has been established that a settlement located southwest of Shakhtyorsk was fired upon by MLRS Himars, ” Russian war correspondent Yevgeny Podubny said.

numerous videos and photos at Source: 
https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-rosia-briskomaste-sto-cheilos-amesis-enoplis-syrraxis-me-ipa-dialythike-rosiki-vasi-apo-himars-7-nekroi-40-travmaties-vid/

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Ridiculous!!  62,000 unvaxxed guards and reserve soldiers are facing loss of pay as they will not become vaccinated.

(Epoch Times

62,000 Unvaxx’d Guards, Reserve Soldiers Facing Loss Of Pay As Army Prepares To Enforce Vaccine Mandate

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 05:25 PM

Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times,

About 40,000 National Guard and 22,000 reserve soldiers will be blocked from service for rejecting the COVID vaccines, U.S. Army officials said on July 8.

“Soldiers who refuse the vaccination order without an approved or pending exemption request are subject to adverse administrative actions, including flags, bars to service, and official reprimands,” an Army spokesperson told Military.com.

The deadline for the Defense Department’s vaccination mandate passed at midnight on June 30. The order cuts off pay and some of the military benefits to the 62,000 service members.

Retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant general Tom McInerney criticized the Biden administration’s vaccination mandates.

“Why would the army do that when the survival rate of their age group is [extremely high]?” McInerney told The Epoch Times.

If those have yet to meet the deadline remain steadfast in their decision to reject the jabs, they might face more severe consequences.

“In the future, Soldiers who continue to refuse the vaccination order without an exemption may be subject to additional adverse administrative action, including separation,” the Army spokesperson further noted.

“We’re going to give every soldier every opportunity to get vaccinated and continue their military career,” Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director of the Army Guard, told the outlet. “We’re not giving up on anybody until the separation paperwork is signed and completed.”

Across all states and territories, only 23 permanent medical exemptions and 19 permanent religious exemptions have been issued by the U.S. Army, according to their vaccination data from July 8.

Career-Ending Myocarditis

Lt. John Bowes (Courtesy of John Bowes)

Air Force pilot Lt. John Bowes told The Epoch Times in late June that he personally knows a few pilots who “developed myocarditis from the vaccine, and they don’t fly anymore.”

“I know of personally more than 700 pilots who are actively unvaccinated and have filed a religious accommodation or have filed for a medical exemption or something of the sort,” Bowes added.

The Air Force has been struggling with pilot shortages for years now. Former Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein testified before congress in 2017 about a shortage of aviators, writing in 2016 that the situation was a “quiet crisis.”

A DoD report (pdf) from 2019 noted that by the end of FY 2018, the Air Force was “short 2,000 pilots out of a total inventory of 18,400.”

END

Flying risk grows in Europe

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:56 AM (9 minutes ago)
to

This is not new, as I keep trying to tell it is out of control .. some of the volunteer units of the Donbass separatists have long been active buying loads of weapons and equipment from across the frontline. Besides, the Europeans really don’t care much about who will be firing the Javelins, Zelensky’s soldiers or Donetsk separatists, as long as this weapon stays on the battlefield. European- and US-supplied weapons are up for grabs by anyone. “Stingers” can be had for a price ranging from several hundred to several thousand dollars, paid in cryptocurrency. With some patience, you can find reliable suppliers.

MANPADS are an ideal weapon for a terrorist attack – not a single civilian aircraft taking off or landing can be safe. Each rocket launcher delivered to Ukraine comes with instructions in Ukrainian and English, in case it falls into the hands of an inexperienced soldier… Bringing such weapons from Ukraine to elsewhere is a breeze, since with a good kickback the corrupt Ukrainian border officials will not only fail to inspect a particular car, but will also secure their Polish or Slovak colleagues’ agreement to let it through unhindered. So, perhaps at this very moment, somewhere outside the airports of Paris or Berlin, some ISIS radicals or militants of half-forgotten anarchist groups, or both, are taking up a position. How many MANPADS sold in Ukraine will be enough to bring all air traffic across Europe to a standstill? Two, three or maybe five?

We will soon enough learn this whole mess was insanity on the run 

END

FDA Colluded With Moderna to Bypass COVID Vaccine Safety Standards, Documents Reveal • Children’s Health Defense

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:46 AM (18 minutes ago)
to

Why is this not a global crime against humanity? Where is Elliott Ness of today ? 

According to Alexandra Latypova, an ex-pharmaceutical industry executive, documents obtained from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine suggest the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Moderna colluded to bypass regulatory and scientific standards used to ensure products are safe.https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/fda-moderna-bypass-covid-vaccine-safety-standards-documents/

END

Open in browser

Myocarditis and Pericarditis due to COVID vaccine in individuals in Ontario, Canada, following COVID-19 shot; found higher rates of myocarditis or pericarditis associated with receipt of mRNA-1273…

…compared with BNT162b2 as a second dose, particularly among male individuals aged 18 to 24 years. Higher rates were also observed with shorter interdose intervals.

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 13

SOURCE:

Epidemiology of Myocarditis and Pericarditis Following mRNA Vaccination by Vaccine Product, Schedule, and Interdose Interval Among Adolescents and Adults in Ontario, Canada

“The findings of this population-based cohort study of Ontario adolescents and adults with myocarditis or pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination suggest that vaccine products and interdose intervals, in addition to age and sex, may be associated with the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis after receipt of these vaccines. Vaccination program strategies, such as age-based product considerations and longer interdose intervals, may reduce the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis following receipt of mRNA vaccines.”

end

must reads….

Dr Paul Alexander….

Vaccinated persons get infected or re-infected with COVID/omicron, why? These seven (7) studies help explain this increased risk and why it is happening; key is binding of non-neutralizing antibodies

Note, some say we should discard term ‘COVID’ & now use ‘omicron’ only as it is sufficiently different & one can argue this for BA.5 sub-variant/clade & this is why it is such an immune re-challenge

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 13

By the facilitating or enhancing or non-neutralizing antibodies binding to the target antigen (which is the spike protein, the receptor binding domain or N-terminal domain on the spike) yet not eliminating/sterilizing/neutralizing the virus, the binding increases infectiousness of the virus to the vaccinated person. It is not the virus, for it is no intrinsic properties of the virus, it is the non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies binding to the spike protein yet not neutralizing the virus, that is causing increased infectiousness to the vaccinated person.

This first study by Liu et al. is particularly instructive.

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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1)Liu et al.: An infectivity-enhancing site on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein targeted by antibodies

Key statement:

‘found that some of antibodies against the N-terminal domain (NTD) induced the open conformation of RBD and thus enhanced the binding capacity of the spike protein to ACE2 and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2. Mutational analysis revealed that all of the infectivity-enhancing antibodies recognized a specific site on the NTD. Structural analysis demonstrated that all infectivity-enhancing antibodies bound to NTD in a similar manner. The antibodies against this infectivity-enhancing site were detected at high levels in severe patients.’

2)Yahi et al.: Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?

‘We show that enhancing antibodies have a higher affinity for Delta variants than for Wuhan/D614G NTDs. We show that enhancing antibodies reinforce the binding of the spike trimer to the host cell membrane by clamping the NTD to lipid raft microdomains. This stabilizing mechanism may facilitate the conformational change that induces the demasking of the receptor binding domain. As the NTD is also targeted by neutralizing antibodies, our data suggest that the balance between neutralizing and facilitating antibodies in vaccinated individuals is in favor of neutralization for the original Wuhan/D614G strain. However, in the case of the Delta variant, neutralizing antibodies have a decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating antibodies display a strikingly increased affinity. Thus, ADE may be a concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors).’

3)Van Egeren et al.: “Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein

‘Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection. Predicted resistance timelines are comparable to those of the decay kinetics of nAbs raised against vaccinal or natural antigens, raising a second potential mechanism for loss of immunity in the population.’

4)Lempp et al.: Lectins enhance SARS-CoV-2 infection and influence neutralizing antibodies

‘SARS-CoV-2 infection-which involves both cell attachment and membrane fusion-relies on the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, which is paradoxically found at low levels in the respiratory tract1-3, suggesting that there may be additional mechanisms facilitating infection. Here we show that C-type lectin receptors, DC-SIGN, L-SIGN and the sialic acid-binding immunoglobulin-like lectin 1 (SIGLEC1) function as attachment receptors by enhancing ACE2-mediated infection and modulating the neutralizing activity of different classes of spike-specific antibodies.’

5)Asarnow et al.: Structural insight into SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies and modulation of syncytia

‘Strikingly, these neutralizing antibodies can inhibit or enhance Spike-mediated membrane fusion and formation of syncytia, which are associated with chronic tissue damage in individuals with COVID-19.’

6)Martin et al.: The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 N501Y lineages

‘The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three “501Y lineages” coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes.’

7)Hoffmann et al.: The Omicron variant is highly resistant against antibody-mediated neutralization: Implications for control of the COVID-19 pandemic

‘The Omicron spike was resistant against most therapeutic antibodies but remained susceptible to inhibition by sotrovimab. Similarly, the Omicron spike evaded neutralization by antibodies from convalescent patients or individuals vaccinated with the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine (BNT162b2) with 12- to 44-fold higher efficiency than the spike of the Delta variant. Neutralization of the Omicron spike by antibodies induced upon heterologous ChAdOx1 (Astra Zeneca-Oxford)/BNT162b2 vaccination or vaccination with three doses of BNT162b2 was more efficient, but the Omicron spike still evaded neutralization more efficiently than the Delta spike. These findings indicate that most therapeutic antibodies will be ineffective against the Omicron variant and that double immunization with BNT162b2 might not adequately protect against severe disease induced by this variant.’

end



https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-07-12-european-union-covid-vaccines-destroy-immune-system.html

European Union FINALLY admits COVID-19 vaccines DESTROY your immune system

Arsenio Toledo

Image: European Union FINALLY admits COVID-19 vaccines DESTROY your immune system

(Natural News) The European Union (EU) has finally admitted that the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines destroy the immune system and make people more susceptible not just to COVID but to all diseases.

According to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), taking booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccines every four months could weaken the immune system and tire people out. (Related: Qatari study finds mRNA vaccines actually DECREASE immunity against COVID-19.)

Despite this revelation, the EU is still recommending that people take COVID-19 vaccines and boosters. What the EMA wants to change is the time in between booster doses.

“[Boosters] can be done once, or maybe twice, but it’s not something that we can think should be repeated constantly,” said Marco Cavaleri, the EMA’s head of biological health threats and vaccines strategy. “We need to think about how we can transition from the current pandemic setting to a more endemic setting.”

But this revelation from the EMA has not stopped the EU from approving more vaccine doses for its population.

The EMA and the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) approved the recommendation giving people between 60 and 79 years old second booster doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

People with medical conditions that make them more susceptible to diseases are also now eligible to receive a second mRNA booster in the 27-nation bloc.

The approval of additional boosters for more vulnerable sectors of society was reportedly rushed following the recent rise in infections in perhaps the most vaccinated continent on the planet.

“With cases and hospitalizations rising again as we enter the summer period, I urge everybody to get vaccinated and boosted as quickly as possible,” said European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides. “There is no time to lose.”

“I call on member states to roll out second boosters for everyone over the age of 60 as well as all vulnerable persons immediately,” she added.

ECDC Director Andrea Ammon is also claiming that the continent is seeing “increasing COVID-19 case notification rates and an increasing trend in hospital and ICU admissions and occupancy in several countries.”

“This signals the start of a new, widespread COVID-19 wave across the European Union,” said Ammon. “There are still too many individuals at risk of severe COVID-19 infection whom we need to protect as soon as possible.”

More COVID-19 vaccinations will increase likelihood of death

“The Daily Veracity” host Vincent James noted that even amending the time in between booster vaccinations likely won’t make any difference and people will still experience debilitating effects upon taking the vaccines.

“If the vaccine and repeated doses of the vaccine destroys your immune system, which is what the European Union admitted recently, then this makes you more susceptible to all diseases,” warned James. “And if it makes you more susceptible to diseases, then it makes you more likely to die, because the vaccine destroys your immune system.”

James warned people against taking even just one COVID-19 vaccine, as evidence points to the fact that not only do they destroy the immune system, “but also they just straight up kill you.”

Learn more about the COVID-19 vaccines at Immunization.news.

Watch this clip from “The Daily Veracity” as host Vincent James talks about the EU finally admitting that the COVID-19 vaccines destroy the immune system.

This video is from the Galactic Storm channel on Brighteon.com.

end


GLOBAL INFLATION/SUPPLY ISSUES

A lack of demand is now causing our once ship shortage turn into a glut

(zerohedge)

PC Demand Suffers ‘Steepest Decline In Years’ As Chip Shortage Turns To Glut

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 06:25 PM

Demand for personal computers dropped dramatically in the second quarter, and is down 12.6% over the same period last year – the sharpest decline in nine years according to the Wall Street Journal, citing research by Gartner Inc.

According to the report, computer makers shipped 72 million PCs between April and June, down from 82.4 million during the same period in 2021.

“The decline we saw in the first quarter of 2022 has accelerated in the second quarter, driven by the ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, inflationary pressure on spending and a steep downturn in demand for Chromebooks,” said Gartner research director Mikako Kitagawa.

Another firm, International Data Corp, found a 15.3% decline in global device shipments in the second quarter.

Their explanation? People splurged during the pandemic.

In May, several PC manufacturers such as HP and Dell are warning that consumer appetite for PCs was waning – particularly for lower-priced products.

And while the drop-off in demand has ‘reverberated throughout the industry’ – with Intel and Micron instituting hiring freezes or other cutbacks to ‘adjust to the new market dynamics,’ Reuters reports that the supply chain crisis has now resolved, leaving a glut of chips.

Like nervous shoppers raiding supermarket aisles for toilet paper ahead of a COVID-19 lockdown, manufacturers stockpiled computer chips during the pandemic,” adding that “hoarding is making it worse.”

Now, they’ll be wrestling with an oversupply amid cooling demand.

Like nervous shoppers raiding supermarket aisles for toilet paper ahead of a COVID-19 lockdown, manufacturers stockpiled computer chips during the pandemic.

Before that, “just in time” manufacturing was the norm for fiscally conservative companies, which ordered parts as close to production time as possible to avoid excess inventory, reduce warehouse capacity and cut upfront spending.

During the pandemic that shifted to what some jokingly call a “just in case” practice of stockpiling chips.

Chip shortages turned into a glut in some sectors, taking Wall Street by surprise. By late June, memory chip firm Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) said it would reduce production. The market reversal caught Micron off guard, admitted Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana. read more

As U.S. chip earnings reporting season kicks off later this month, TechInsights’ chip economist Dan Hutcheson warned of more bad news following Micron’s grim forecast. “Micron kind of plowed the ground, with their honesty,” he said. –Reuters

“Hoarding is a sign they think it’s essential until one day they look at it and say, ‘Why do I have all this inventory?” according to TechInsights’ chip economist Dan Hutcheson, who has been forecasting for over 40 years. “It’s kind of like toilet paper.”

Who’s going to be hardest hit?

According to Tristan Gerra, Baird’s senior analyst for semiconductors, big suppliers of chips to consumer electronics makers, particularly low-end smartphones, are basically doomed.

Least affected will be Apple’s suppliers, such as TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.), according to Wedbush’s Matt Bryson, who notes that demand for Apple devices remains high. Those who provide automotive and data center chips will also do well, according to Gerra.

“In power management, we’re going gangbusters,” said one anonymous exec at a global chipmaker, but added that for radio frequency chips used in smartphones, “we’re seeing a pullback because of handsets.”

That said, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon disagrees on automakers – noting that they ordered far more chips than they needed, and continue to do so. When automakers stop buying, things will get real(er).

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

Bank Of Canada “Front Loads” Tightening, Shocks Market With 100bps Rate-Hike

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 10:12 AM

In a surprise to the markets (expecting a 75bps hike), the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by 100bps, adding language around the perceived need to “front-load the path” to higher rates.

“The bank is guarding against the risk that high inflation becomes entrenched because if it does, restoring price stability will require even higher interest rates, leading to a weaker economy,” Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials said in the July monetary policy report

As the redline below shows, they made significant changes…

This is the largest BoC rate-hike since 1998…

While growth estimates were revised down, a soft landing is still the base case with the economy expected to expand 3.5% in 2022, 1.8% next year and 2.4% in 2024. Inflation is forecast to be back at target by end of 2024.

CPI:

  • 2022: 7.2% (prev. 5.3%)
  • 2023: 4 6% (prev. 2.8%)
  • 2024: 2.3% (prev. 2.1%)

GDP:

  • 2022: 3.5% (prev. 4.2%)
  • 2023: 1.8% (prev. 3.2%)
  • 2024: 2.4% (prev. 2.2%)

Despite the size of the ‘front loading’, The Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further.

The Loonie’s reaction is perhaps surprising in its undecided-ness. Despite chopping stronger and weaker, the Canadian Dollar is really not changed that much against the US Dollar post the BOC decision…

As Bloomberg notes, The Bank of Canada joins more than 30 other central banks around the world that have raised interest rates by a full percentage or more this year.

END

UK Rulers Quietly Published Report Confirming the Vaxxed Account for 94% of all COVID-19 Deaths | SHTF Plan

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:17 PM (7 minutes ago)
to

Wow!

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/uk-rulers-quietly-published-report-confirming-the-vaxxed-account-for-94-of-all-covid-19-deaths

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Injecting Babies with COVID-19 Vaccines: Brain Damage, Seizures, Rashes are Recorded Side Effects in VAERS

July 12, 2022 4:30 pm

We are now seeing more records of side effects from the pediatric COVID-19 vaccines for the most recent age group authorized by the FDA, babies and toddlers between the ages of 6 months and 4 years old. This age group was authorized to be injected with COVID-19 vaccines less than 1 month ago, on June 17th. In the most recent update to the national Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database this past Friday (July 8, 2021), 123 new records were added to this age group, with 137 cases now recorded since the FDA authorization. As we reported on July 6th, when the first few cases were beginning to show up in VAERS for the babies and toddlers, hallucinations are a very troubling side effect in this very young age group. With these 137 cases recorded in the past few weeks, other troubling side effects including brain injuries, seizures, and skin rashes are showing up in the database. 27 of the 137 cases listed “Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome” as a side effect. Cleveland Clinic defines “Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome” as: “Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is a rare and life-threatening reaction to the use of any neuroleptic medication. Neuroleptics, also known as antipsychotic medications, treat and manage symptoms of many psychiatric conditions.” I am tempted to write my emotional reaction to this news, but I want to keep this clean and G-rated. What kind of parent would willingly inject their baby with something that has the same “rare and life-threatening reaction” as antipsychotic drugs?? No wonder some of these babies and toddlers are hallucinating! Other side effects among these first 137 cases recorded in VAERS for babies and toddlers who are injected with the COVID-19 vaccines are: anaphylactic shock, dementia, depression, lupus, pancreatitis, colitis, Guillain-Barre syndrome, encephalitis, seizures, meningitis, and all sorts of rashes.

Read More…


Pfizer Crimes against our Children: Cardiac Arrest of Two Month Old Baby an Hour after Experimental Vaccine

July 12, 2022 5:00 pm

Read carefully. Pfizer is committing crimes against humanity, specifically against our children. The vaccine has resulted in cardiac arrest not in an elderly person but in a two month old baby. “Why did they not follow up on the 2-month-old baby’s condition, after going into cardiac arrest an hour after receiving an experimental vaccine? Why is there no further information? Is it because he died? Or was the baby removed from an experiment? Why would the author of the report not mention this?” We call upon the US Department of Justice to undertake a criminal investigation against Pfizer. We call upon governments worldwide to immediately suspend the mRNA vaccine. A class action law suit is also required on behalf of the hundreds of thousands of victims of the mRNA vaccine. Never mentioned by the media, Pfizer has a criminal record with the US Department of Justice. In 2009 Pfizer was indicted on charges of “fraudulent marketing”. Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, July 6, 2022

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY and Bill Blain

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(FOLEY)

Bill Blain…

a must read……

Blain: The Immediate Threat Is Inflation, But…

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 09:50 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“ All that glitters is not gold…”

The immediate threat is inflation – how could a strong CPI print destablise markets, but inflation is also a question of what shocks are still to come, and investing accordingly. What if a big No-see-Em shock is still to come – a Chinese financial crisis?

Markets are all about risk – What do we know, and what do we not? That’s easy – we know what we care to learn about the past, what we think we know about today, but about tomorrow we are just making informed guesses.

Today the big front and centre issue is inflation. Does it get worse or better, and for how long?

Take a look at any inflation chart and it will typically shows a series of sharp, short-lived spikes – which makes sense: something triggers inflation, it is addressed and the economy adapts, the price shock is normalised as the economy learns to cope with the new normal.

The immediate critical risk is another new shock; that a stronger than expected US CPI (inflation) report triggers major wobbles across markets by raising expectations of aggressive central banking rate tightening – that’s given some impetus by the comments of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey who said :“bringing inflation down to the 2% target is our job, no ifs or buts”. The market expects a 50 bp Bank hike in early August – there is little else left in the Bank’s armoury.

The market is split on where the inflation threat goes from here:

  • There are naysayers who say trying to address the multiple inflation shocks now hitting global markets with recession inducing monetary tightening is just daft.
  • There are others who say it’s all the fault of the overly-easy monetary experimentation of artificially low-rates and QE of the last 14 years: inflation everywhere is a monetary phenomenon. (Inflation is very real and it has enormous socio-economic consequences.)
  • There are some market watchers who believe inflation already peaked, and June will mark a high for this inflationary spike as the economy successfully adapts and digests the Ukraine energy shock and the end of pandemic supply chain crisis. They argue there is significant resilience built in that will ease tensions.
  • There are others, including myself, who believe inflation could yet spike higher, and could remain persistently higher for longer than central bank dot-plots suggest. The energy crisis is not over – and could get substantially worse if Putin does not reopen the gas valves to Europe (currently closed for “maintenance”) later this month. Coronavirus lockdowns in China remain a threat to keep supply chains malfunctioning, and growing wage-inflation as industrial unrest ferments across Europe is going to hit hard in Q3/4 as recession bites.

What’s a fund manager to do? Inflation hurts earnings – as this current earnings season will no-doubt show. Interest rate rises will hit stock returns, balance sheets and prices. One argument is to buy stocks in the expectation the economy will adapt while strong fundamentals re-establish themselves.

On Monday there was a fascinating intervention on the inflation conundrum for asset managers from retired bond king Bill Gross – reminding us bonds diminish risk but lower returns.. “Jim Cramer famously says there’s always a bull market somewhere but I’m straining to find one now.” Gross goes on to say investors should mitigate the pain, accept its happening and “12 month Treasuries at 2.7% are better than your money market fund and any other alternatives!” He has a point – although others say this is time to buy duration to up the return to 3%!

On the other hand, maybe there is more pain to come? Maybe it will be Europe where Euro parity to the dollar is doing precious little to boost economies heading into a new recession, where energy security is perilous, and politics looks a-dither.

And, there are growing signs all is not well in China..

There is a widely held view Paramount Leader Chairman Xi feels so secure, and the distracted west looks so riven, it’s time for a quick operation to seize Taiwan. Maybe not – the Chinese, who share tactical doctrines with the now discredited Russian steamroller, look embarrassed by its shortcomings. For all its’ military posturing and new weapons, the Chinese are not an “outward bound” empire – historically, they prefer to internalise. The spectacular growth of China over the last 30 years has come from the internal control and expansion of its domestic economy, initially through exports and now through domestic consumption.

That’s bound to have created internal tensions – which can be seen in terms of inequality, environmental damage, and the limitations on internal freedoms – all of which we know..

But, over the last 2 years of Covid, China has effectively sequestered itself from the global economy. We think we understand how it works, but in reality… do we?  Look at how dramatically and swiftly Hong Kong has been spun from being the premier western entrepot into a kow-towing domestic city.

China is big and it matters. It is like and unlike the west. It has multiple growth problems and demographics that will trigger whole new issues the West has yet to adapt to. The Covid lockdowns, understanding of the Party and government, and now bursting economic bubbles and what looks like a developing banking crisis – I’m beginning to wonder if the Middle Kingdom is more trouble than we think? If so it will have enormous global consequences – it could be a massive No-See-Um that could destabilise the global economy.

I’ve been reading up on the Chinese Banking riots in Henan Province. The fact Chinese protestors wanting money back from local banks following a run were set upon is hardly unusual – the immediate suspicion is corrupt local politicians were protecting themselves. But there are two aspects to the story to consider:

  • The first is Chinese Surveillance Capitalism: clamping down on reporting, using unidentified security personal to beat up and break up protestors, and local officials manipulating Covid “personal health codes” to ping protestors as likely Covid carriers takes state-control to a new level. Observers are not surprised – they saw the mandatory health codes as a way in which Government could control the masses. If surveillance capitalism is so established – why is party corruption still such an issue?
  • The second is the scale of the domestic banking problem. Is it really just a local, one province problem? What are we not seeing? Could it be the whole Chinese banking system is teetering?

The official line is it’s a local banking problem caused by criminality, presenting the line “local gangsters” have been systematically looting some small banks after “capturing” them up to a decade ago – which sounds like bad regulation and incompetent bank inspection. But runs on banks and lines of people asking for their money back is very 2007.

I am convinced much of the UK banking crisis following the run on Northern Rock that year would have been avoided if the Bank of England had stepped in to provide liquidity earlier. It was when the plentiful liquidity that supported bank property and corporate lending suddenly dried up as it became clear just how unbalanced that lending was that the global financial crisis was triggered.

Let me ask a rhetorical question: Is it possible China’s well known hot property bubble, it’s corporate borrowing binge, plus the high degree of corruption within the system, is fuelling a very real banking crisis in China? Is China about to suffer its’ very own internalised version of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008? How much worse will it be made by the ongoing Covid bogey being used to keep the economy under control? Are Covid Lockdowns being used to disguise the scale of a massive Chinese financial crisis?

Just asking…

Michael Every

Euro Parity: Barriers And Psychology

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 03:20 PM

By Elwin de Groot, Rabobank head of macro strategy

The big theme in markets yesterday of course was the Eurodollar and the question whether it did or did not fall to/below parity, a level considered by many as a ‘psychological barrier’. According to my terminal the currency pair did touch the 1 level against the dollar during yesterday’s trading session, but traders have been telling us that it actually never really touched it (looking at the fifth(!) decimal place), before bouncing off and stabilising at around 1.004 early this morning.

If one would consider the parity level to be a real psychological barrier, the traders’ view makes sense. One explanation is that potential buyers would not be very eager to buy at exactly that level because once the pair falls to 1 there are no buyers until it has sunk considerably below it. Similarly, potential sellers may be reluctant to sell at the psychological barrier for fears that any sharp dip below it would immediately trigger large demand orders which could, in turn, lead to a sharp reversal.

I am doubtful that we should read much more into this than this parity barrier simply being a technical market quirk rather than a fundamental factor, but the bounce-off that we saw yesterday really is a thing of beauty in itself when you look at the tick chart. Personally I would not draw any strong conclusions from yesterday’s market moves about the future trajectory of the currency pair. It reminds me of an occasion many years ago (although this is distinctly different) where a technical analyst pointed out to me – looking at the chart of a certain stock – that the stock would “unlikely fall through a key psychological barrier of 100” because it had not done so during several episodes in the past years. It looked plausible, until I realised that the stock had, not so long before, been split in a 2.5:1 ratio… Of course, the EUR isn’t subject to stock splits, but its fundamentals may be distinctly different amidst the current geopolitical and energy crises and our fundamental view is that is should ultimately recover.

That said, the fact that there is so much attention for this also drives home the message how important a role psychology plays in our day-to-day lives and thus in our economy and markets (and how little most economic models take this into account). Clearly, hope and fear should not be dismissed as factors ultimately driving actions of both households and businesses.  

A case in point is yesterday’s ZEW survey in Germany. Investor sentiment hit its lowest level since the Eurozone’s debt crisis in 2011. The headline expectations index fell by a whopping 25.8 points to -53.8; one would almost think that is also a psychological barrier as it stood at exactly -53.8 in December 2011. But quickly forget that, because in November it stood at -55.2 (and it’s pretty silly to think of psychological barriers when you are looking at some aggregate of a questionnaire where the individual contributors – in contrast to a trading venue – probably don’t take into account what others might be filling out).

In any case, the list of reasons for such pessimism reflected in the ZEW survey is long. Clearly, concerns over a potential lack of gas played a significant role in the survey as it was held just as German economy minister Habeck warned of “Lehman-like” risks should the flow of gas come to a standstill. Meanwhile, the ECB pre-announced rate hikes for July and September last month. The sharpest fall in ZEW sentiment, unsurprisingly, therefore was in the utilities sector, followed by banks, chemicals, electronics and retail. But other surveys also indicate that many German industries are still struggling with considerable material shortages and lack of personnel. As such, the recent fall in the euro is not primarily seen as a boon to exporters (who are still facing backlogs and shortages), but more as an amplifier of high import prices.

The question, now, is whether we should read more into this latest survey about the psychological state of investors and their concerns about the German economy? After all, troughs in the survey often have coincided with troughs in the equity market, so any ‘glass half full’ type of person could argue that we should “buy the dip” as it cannot get much worse than this, right? Or remember the ‘millennium bug’ in 1999? It was feared at the time that the switchover to the new millennium would unleash mayhem because many computers’ date settings would fail. It never really came to pass.

However, I would argue that this time is different and the bigger risk is that self-fulfilling prophesies speed up the economic slowdown in the months ahead. For one, the risk of a lack of supplies is real, not some sort of software issue that can be patched. Secondly, whilst “fear” is often considered a “bad counsellor”, it would seem that those fears are now actually giving way to the Germans losing hope, which itself is potentially more concerning as it may affect future investment behaviour. To back this up, I did a Google trends lookup of the search words of “Angst” and “Furcht”, which shows no discernible trend in Germany over the last 6 months or soIf anything both are below the levels seen during the pandemic, when fears were also riding high.

However, using the search term “Hoffnung” paints an entirely different picture: the number of searches including the term hope has fallen to the lowest level since Google’s records began. It may well have more profound implications as we head into the summer lull.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Middle east imports of Russian fuels:

Middle East Ramps Up Imports Of Shunned Russian Fuels

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 09:30 AM

US and European sanctions have led to a significant shift in the direction of Russian energy flows. 

Bloomberg reports diesel and other fuel products shunned by many countries in the West are heading to the Middle East. Increasing flows began after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and reached 155,000 barrels a day in June, according to new data from Vortexa Ltd. Meanwhile, European imports have slumped 30% since the invasion on Feb. 24.  

Vortexa’s data shows most of the products arriving in the Middle East from Russian ports are fuel oil, diesel/gasoil, and more recently, jet fuel and kerosene. 

“Most of the Middle East’s imports from Russia are of fuel oil — a leftover from the refining process and often used in power generation and shipping,” Bloomberg noted. 

About a third of the inflows of fuel products went into the Fujairah Oil Terminal for storage in the United Arab Emirates. Imports of Russian fuel products are at a 2016 high and could increase further because of Western trade restrictions to punish President Putin for the invasion of Ukraine. 

However, Koen Wessels, senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd, said Russian flows to the Middle East will be temporary and could eventually slow because of shipping insurance-related restrictions for vessels leaving Russian ports. 

Vortexa’s data shows July’s imports are on track to surpass June’s figures. Already, inflows are around 220,000 barrels a day for July 1-11. 

Besides the Middle East, the Visual Capitalist shows the top countries in the first 100 days (Feb. 24 to June 4) purchasing crude, oil products, pipeline gas, LNG, and coal. China was the top importer of Russian oil in the world. 

The world is still desperate for Russian energy supplies, and flows are shifting to the East. 

JPM’s commodity desk noted earlier this week that if Russia cuts energy exports, Brent prices could significantly jump and spark even more economic turmoil. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0059 UP  0.0029 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 137.07   UP 0.342 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1926 UP   0.0049

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.83 POINTS UP  0.09%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.79 PTS OR 0.22% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.31%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.79 PTS OR  0.22% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.83 PTS DOWN 0.09% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.31% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 142.11 OR 0.56%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1729.50

silver:$19.01

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 107.82  DOWN 0.10  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.24%  UP 1  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.220% DOWN 0     AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25%// UP 3   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.23  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.141%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0082 UP  0.0053    or 53 basis points

USA/Japan: 137.33 UP .594  OR YEN DOWN  59  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1915  UP  0.0036 OR 36  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0070 OR 70 BASIS pts  to 1.2962

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7189  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7210

TURKISH LIRA:  17.43  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.220

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  2.910% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.134 DOWN 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.60 DOWN 32   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 53.49 PTS OR  0.74%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 149.56  POINTS OR 1.16%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 43.96 PTS OR 0.73% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 69.90 OR 0.87%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 199.32PTS OR  0.93%

WTI Oil price 96.92   12: EST

Brent Oil:  100,41  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  58.30  DOWN 0.6        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.141

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0059 UP .0029     OR  29 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1892 UP .0015  or  15 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137.32  UP .591//YEN DOWN 59 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.29979 DOWN 0054 (CDN dollar UP 54  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 95.99

Brent OIL:  99.33

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.917 DOWN 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.081  DOWN 6  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.41

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  58.27   UP 66/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 208.54 PTS OR 0.67 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 16.46 PTS OR 0.14%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.64 down 0.65 PTS (2.38)%

GLD: 161.60 up 0.77 PTS OR 0.48%

SLV/ 17.69 up .25 CENTS OR 1.48%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Soaring CPI Sparks Fed ‘Policy Error’ Panic Across Markets

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 04:01 PM

The yield curve – short and long – is screaming ‘policy error imminent’ as its aggressive anti-inflation fight will inevitably trigger anything but a soft landing and spark a new round of easing/QE that will once and for all crush the central planners’ credibility.

2s30s has now inverted…

Source: Bloomberg

2s10s is the most inverted since 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

STIRs are inferring a greater than 66% chance of a 100bps hike in July (and September almost a lock for a further 75bps hike)…

Source: Bloomberg

While rate-hike expectations for 2022 are rising, the subsequent rate-cut expectations – as The Fed bails us out of a deep recession – are soaring too (with over 100bps of cuts now priced in beginning in Feb 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Q1 is pricing in a full rate-cut…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the market is now pricing in a more aggressive hiking cycle than The Fed’s Dots in 2022, and then a dramatically more dovish Fed in 2023 and 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1547277512337768448&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ffed-policy-error-imminent-soaring-cpi-sparks-drastic-yield-curve-inversion&sessionId=4ebf95d274ede4b1f696f4c707f6f85444e0af74&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=3235bd17138fa%3A1657578976990&width=550px

The bond market was very volatile today with a big spike in yields at the CPI print which rapidly rolled over, leaving only the 2Y yield higher on the day (+9bps) and the long-end drastically lower at the long-end (30Y -9bps, down 14bps from the highs)

Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave bond-land, here’s what the yield “curve” looks like now…

Source: Bloomberg

The euro tumbled to parity against the dollar for the first time in 20 years after the CPI print…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks plunged on the CPI print (hawkish) then bounced on a WSJ report suggesting a 100bps hike is off the table, but when Fed’s Bostic put it squarely back on the table, things rolled over again and stocks went negative.  This is the 4th straight down-day for the Dow and S&P 500…

And if you think stocks are pricing in what STIRs are – think again. Stocks are still bipolar and squeeze driven as well as hoping beyond hope that the subsequent easing after The Fed pushes the economy into recession will save the day… The issue is whether they can withstand the path-dependent trajectory required to get that easing…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto also had a chaotic day, ending just marginally higher after puking on the CPI print…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended the day marginally higher, despite demand destruction signals from the inventory data and a growth-threatening hawkish reaction to the CPI print…

Gold managed gains, rebounding strongly after puking on the CPI print…

US and EU NatGas prices ripped higher today (EU now triple the cost of US)…

Source: Bloomberg

The good news continues with US gasoline prices continuing to fall, but they remain up dramatically YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh and President Biden spewed the same shit against gas retailers!!!

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1547289291155558401&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ffed-policy-error-imminent-soaring-cpi-sparks-drastic-yield-curve-inversion&sessionId=4ebf95d274ede4b1f696f4c707f6f85444e0af74&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=3235bd17138fa%3A1657578976990&width=550px

…and as we noted earlier, the US price is drastically higher than that in Mexico…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, a Chicago Fed survey on the outlook for the US economy decreased to minus 60 in June, the worst reading since the survey began and worse than at the depths of the COVID lockdowns in 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Do you really think that will lead to a ‘soft landing’?

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Bonds & Stocks Slammed As Hottest CPI In Over 40 Years Sparks Surge In Rate-Hike Odds

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 08:54 AM

Well that wasn’t supposed to happen.

It seems ‘peak inflation’ is not here and markets are stunned.

Rate-hike expectations are soaring (and 100bps of rate-cuts are now priced in for next year)…

With the odds of a 100bps hike in July now at 30%…

We know where to look for confirmation…

All of that has sent stocks violently lower…

The euro briefly traded below parity…

And bond yields aggressively higher (with the yield curve flattening dramatically – 2Y +14bps, 30Y +5bps)…

The yield curve (2s30s) is back near its lowest since 2007 and on the verge of inversion again…

The one redeeming feature is that the market is now pricing in 14bps of rate-cuts in Q1 2023 (as The Fed fights off the recession it created).

When will stocks look through the recession and start pricing in the next round of QE?

end

“Everything Is In Play” – Stocks Sink After Fed’s Bostic Cites “Concerning” CPI

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “everything is in play” for policy action after data showed that US inflation accelerated again to a fresh four-decade high last month.

“The top-line number is a source of concern,” Bostic told reporters Wednesday during a visit to St. Petersburg, Florida.

“Everything is in play.”

Asked if that included by raising rates by a full percentage point, he replied:

“it would mean everything.”

That remark – which should not be a surprise at all given the STIR market had already gone there, sent stocks lower…

The STIR market has already priced in a 60% chance of a 100bps rate hike in July…

And then the STIR market is pricing in dramatic rate-cuts as The Fed bails the economy out again as the yield curve (2s30s) plunges into inversion…

Bostic just poured cold water all over the WSJ’s earlier article.

ii) USA DATA//

US Consumer Prices Soared In June, Americans’ Real Wages Fall For 15th Straight Month

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 08:37 AM

With The White House having desperately tried to front-run this morning’s inflation print, analysts were expecting a jump higher led by food and energy costs. They were right in direction but it was way worse as the headline CPI soared 9.1% YoY (vs 8.8% exp and 8.6% prior)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 1.3% MoM rise is the hottest since 2005…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the 9.1% YoY is the hottest since 1981.

Source: Bloomberg

Goods inflation is slowing but services costs are soaring at their fastest since 1991…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, energy costs dominated the rise, but the rent index rose 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase since April 1986.

The motor vehicle maintenance and repair index increased 2.0 percent in June, its largest increase since September 1974.

The index for dental services increased 1.9 percent in June, the largest monthly change ever recorded for that series, which dates to 1995.

Focusing on the roof over your head factor, shelter inflation +5.61%, up from 5.61%, highest since 1992, and rent inflation +5.78%, up from 5.22%, highest since 1986

Real wages fell for the 15th month in a row… (Americans’ purchasing power domestically fell by a record 3.6% YoY in June)

Developing…

Finally, the S&P has ended the day lower on 5 of the last 6 CPI days…

Trade accordingly.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Twitter officially sues Musk

(zerohedge)

Twitter Officially Sues Musk To Force Deal Completion

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 05:13 PM

As fully expected, Twitter has officially sued Elon Musk to force the billionaire to complete his $44 billion acquisition of the company.

As The NYTimes reports, Twitter sued him in Chancery Court in Delaware.

The complaint reads…

Musk refuses to honor his obligations to Twitter and its stockholders because the deal he signed no longer serves his personal interests.

Having mounted a public spectacle to put Twitter in play, and having proposed and then signed a seller-friendly merger agreement, Musk apparently believes that he — unlike every other party subject to Delaware contract law — is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away.

This repudiation follows a long list of material contractual breaches by Musk that have cast a pall over Twitter and its business.

Twitter brings this action to enjoin Musk from further breaches, to compel Musk to fulfill his legal obligations, and to compel consummation of the merger upon satisfaction of the few outstanding conditions.

The court will determine whether he remains on the hook for the purchase or whether Twitter violated its obligation to provide Mr. Musk with data he requested, entitling him to walk away.

* * *

As we detailed yesterday, the twitter court trial/legal settlement drama began its dismal lifecycle when Twitter’s law firm Wachtell Lipton lobbed its first official response to the Friday afternoon blockbuster from Elon Musk in which the world’s richest man decided he had had enough of toying with Twitter and decided to announce the termination of his plans to buy the social network.

Well, not so fast (of course): according to Wachtell which argues that Musk’s termination “is invalid and wrongful, and it constitutes a repudiation of their obligations under the Agreement” and adds that “contrary to the assertions in your letter, Twitter has breached none of its obligations under the Agreement, and Twitter has not suffered and is not likely to suffer a Company Material Adverse Effect.”

And since the the “termination is invalid for the independent reason that Mr. Musk and the other Musk Parties have knowingly, intentionally, willfully, and materially breached the Agreement, including but not limited to Sections 6.3, 6.8, and 6.10 thereof”, the “Agreement is not terminated, the Bank Debt Commitment Letter and the Equity Commitment Letter remain in effect, and Twitter demands that Mr. Musk and the other Musk Parties comply with their obligations under the Agreement, including their obligations to use their respective reasonable best efforts to consummate and make effective the transactions contemplated by the Agreement.”

The full letter from Wachtell Lipton’s William Savitt below (link):

Re:    Purported Termination of Agreement and Plan of Merger

Dear Mr. Ringler:

This letter is sent on behalf of Twitter, Inc. (“Twitter” or “the Company”) in response to your July 8, 2022 letter, in which X Holdings I, Inc. purports to terminate the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Agreement”) by and among Twitter, X Holdings I, Inc. (“Parent”), X Holdings II, Inc. (“Acquisition Sub”), and Elon R. Musk (together with Parent and Acquisition Sub, the “Musk Parties”). Capitalized terms used here and not otherwise defined have the meanings ascribed to them in the Agreement.

Mr. Musk’s and the other Musk Parties’ purported termination is invalid and wrongful, and it constitutes a repudiation of their obligations under the Agreement. Contrary to the assertions in your letter, Twitter has breached none of its obligations under the Agreement, and Twitter has not suffered and is not likely to suffer a Company Material Adverse Effect. The purported termination is invalid for the independent reason that Mr. Musk and the other Musk Parties have knowingly, intentionally, willfully, and materially breached the Agreement, including but not limited to Sections 6.3, 6.8, and 6.10 thereof. The Agreement is not terminated, the Bank Debt Commitment Letter and the Equity Commitment Letter remain in effect, and Twitter demands that Mr. Musk and the other Musk Parties comply with their obligations under the Agreement, including their obligations to use their respective reasonable best efforts to consummate and make effective the transactions contemplated by the Agreement (including by taking all steps necessary to obtain a favorable outcome under the United Kingdom’s National Security and Investment Act 2021), the Bank Debt Commitment Letter, and the Equity Commitment Letter. As it has done, Twitter will continue to provide information reasonably requested by Mr. Musk under the Agreement and to diligently take all measures required to close the transaction.

Twitter reserves all contractual, legal, and other rights, including its right to specifically enforce the Musk Parties’ obligations under the Agreement.

 
Sincerely,

William Savitt
Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz

This is just the obligatory next step before Twitter sues Musk in Delaware Court of Chancery, where the outcomes are four:

  1. Musk prevails, and gets away with terminating the deal without paying anything.
  2. Twitter prevails, Musk is forced to pay $1 billion in “termination fee” damages for breach of contract.
  3. Twitter prevails, Musk is ordered to pay $44 billion in specific performance, and ends up buying Twitter at the original purchase price.
  4. Twitter and Musk settle for a purchase price somewhere between $54.20 and $30.00

We believe “4” is the most likely conclusion to this soap opera, even if Musk is confident that 1 (or perhaps 2) is the only outcome.

end

IMF slashes USA GDP outlooks as well as hikes unemployment forecases.

(zerohedge)

IMF Slashes US GDP Outlook, Hikes Unemployment Forecast, Sees Miracle In Inflation

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 05:46 PM

Less than a month after The International Monetary Fund cut its growth projections for the US economy to 2.9%, the Washington-based lender doubled-down in its so-called Article IV consultation released tonight, slashing US GDP growth to just 2.3% this year and just 1.0% in 2023 (down from +1.7% in June)…

The IMF now also sees the jobless rate at 3.7% this year, compared with staff’s earlier 3.2% forecast, and expects the figure to exceed 5% in both 2024 and 2025.

Finally, we come to The IMF’s inflation forecast. It appears they are convinced that The Fed is omnipotent – able to manufacture a massive bout of disinflation without any annual economic contraction and only modest job losses.

The table below shows the cliff-like plunge in inflation starting 2023 (and expectations that 2022 will actually slow from 2021 for all but Core CPI)…

We are not surprised at this forecast since IMF Directors warned:

“a broad-based surge in inflation, posing systemic risks to both the United States and the global economy.”

This will not help the global stagflation outlook at all…

The US’s “policy priority must be to expeditiously slow price growth without precipitating a recession,” the IMF’s executive directors said.

Avoiding a recession in the US “is becoming increasingly challenging,” with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the lingering Covid-19 pandemic and supply-side constraints create additional difficulties, they said. 

The Biden administration won’t like this:

As part of the policy mix, a number of Directors also saw merit in implementing a medium-term strategy for fiscal deficit reduction, which would help place public debt on a downward path and support anchoring inflation expectations.

Easier said than done!

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

Now container rates are slumping but still higher from before the pandemic; knock as the “bullwhip effect”  (excessive inventories)

(zerohedge)

Container Rates Slump As “Bullwhip Effect” Enters Terminal Phase

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2022 – 08:25 PM

The infamous “bullwhip” effect strikes as inventory gluts force U.S. importers to dial back shipments from overseas, driving down rates for ocean freight, which could end up causing a so-called “freight recession.” 

WSJ reports U.S. companies are renegotiating shipping agreements they made during the virus pandemic highs. Some are hedging in the spot market to reduce costs associated with long-term contracts. 

San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport said softening demand lowers freight rates but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. 

Last week, the spot rate to ship a container from China to the U.S. West Coast was still four times higher than the same period in July 2019, online freight marketplace Freightos’ data shows. 

A recent shipment by Carbochem Inc., an importer of activated carbon used in water treatment, cost around $16k from China to Chicago, down from $21k a year ago.  

“We need to be looking at probably less than $10,000 to get anywhere close to the levels we were before and be competitive,” the firm’s president, Gavin Kahn, said. 

Shipping data from Bloomberg shows international freight rates have slumped over the last six months, mainly because of China shutdowns. However, U.S. importers reducing demand for cargo ships has accelerated the downward move. 

The $1.5bln slide in U.S. consumer goods in May might have been a clear indication that demand for overseas products was waning and comes as Americans reduced spending on durable goods, something Target and Walmart pointed out last month.

We have detailed for readers in the last two months the terminal phase of the bullwhip effect was upon us:

The side effect of soaring inventory to sales ratios is that retailers must liquidate inventories as consumer spending habits change. This causes retailers to reduce demand from overseas suppliers (read: Samsung Asks Component Makers To Delay Shipments Amid Build-Up In Inventories), which diminishes the need for ocean freight shipping. 

In late March, FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller warned that retailers would need to unload inventory amid signs of demand destruction. He correctly said this would cause a freight recession now could be coming true as container rates decline. 

END 

SWAMP STORIES

A must read….

America’s Retreat by 1,000 Small Steps :: Gatestone Institute

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:26 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

Government for a few at the expense of many on full display 



https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18698/retreat-small-steps

America’s Retreat by 1,000 Small Steps

by Peter Schweizer
July 13, 2022 at 5:00 am

Because the Biden family has been so deeply involved and so vehemently denied their involvement with Chinese business, the next question is as inescapable as the first: Does the flow of money to the Biden family from China influence the foreign policy of the United States? (Image source: iStock)

President Joe Biden has been lying about his knowledge and likely his involvement in his son’s business dealings since at least 2018.

That is the inescapable conclusion to draw from a short voicemail recording discovered on the laptop computer that belonged to his son, Hunter and reported by The Daily Mail and The New York Post recently.

It begins innocently enough. “Hey pal, it’s Dad,” Joe Biden begins. “It’s 8:15 on Wednesday night. If you get a chance, just give me a call. Nothing urgent. I just wanted to talk to you.”

The elder Biden then turns to a specific subject. That subject was the publication of a New York Times article detailing how, in 2014, “Ye Jianming courted the Biden family and networked with former United States security officials.” The article offers some details of Ye’s efforts to lure Hunter Biden into business deals that would enrich him and curry favor with his father, vice president of the United States and the recently designated “point person” for the administration of President Barack Obama on China.

Biden’s voicemail to Hunter continues: “I thought the article released online, it’s going to be printed tomorrow in the Times, was good,” Biden said. “I think you’re clear. And anyway if you get a chance, give me a call, I love you.”

On its own, this is not dispositive. It could be explained as a politician’s take on a news story that implicates his own son in business dealings with a Chinese investor whose commercial enterprises went into default. But placed into proper context, against what had already been reported in my 2018 book, Secret Empires, and reported on previously, it shows that Joe Biden in 2018 knew plenty about his son’s business dealings, all of which involved foreign nations in which the elder Biden was simultaneously serving as the US’s most important diplomatic presence.

Moreover, it tracks with the words of an eyewitness, namely Hunter himself, who told the New Yorker in 2019 that he discussed Burisma, the Ukrainian natural gas producer, with his father as far back as December 2015 while Hunter sat on Burisma’s board of directors, as USA TODAY reported in September of 2019.

Around the time of the 2015 conversation, Joe Biden was preparing for a trip to Ukraine and the Obama administration special envoy had raised the issue with the Vice President, according to the article. Hunter Biden told the New Yorker he and his father spoke about Burisma just once.

“Dad said, ‘I hope you know what you’re doing,'” Hunter told the New Yorker. “And I said, ‘I do,'” Hunter said. His father’s presidential campaign declined to comment.

Joe Biden would go on, as candidate and then as president, to continue to deny, then backpedal, on whether Joe had knowledge of what his son was doing overseas. For those who would not be convinced by what I disclosed in Secret Empires, published in April 2018 and five weeks on the New York Times bestseller list — for those who would not be convinced by Hunter’s own words that he had in fact discussed his overseas business interests with his father — there is now the direct, recorded voice of Joe Biden himself, telling his son in 2018 that he was “in the clear” on at least one of these deals.

He denied any of this, categorically, throughout the 2020 campaign. But, as Gordon Chang agreed in a recent interview, there it is.

Some may be tempted to chalk this up to past indiscretions or even as a father’s natural protectiveness for his own son. But none of this is really “past,” and given the investigations ongoing into Hunter’s business dealings it is hard to see that it provided much protection to him at all. But the lies did protect Joe Biden’s “viability” as a candidate against President Donald Trump and defused an issue that led to Trump’s impeachment by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives over his efforts to coax Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy into investigating the matter from his own perspective.

But the issue remains red-hot because there is still so much at stake in US-China diplomatic and trade relations that requires a US president to prioritize American interests above those of China… or of himself.

In an interview with Jason Chaffetz on the Fox News show “Sunday Futures,” I described the Biden administration’s policy toward China as “A retreat by 1,000 small steps.”

  • Thanks to a Treasury Department “interpretation,” Americans can still own stock in companies that were placed on a blacklist by the Trump administration because of their direct ties to the Chinese military.
  • Thanks to the Biden administration, the “China Initiative” at the Department of Justice to crack down on China’s attempts to acquire or steal American technology has been discontinued.
  • Thanks to the Biden administration’s “green energy” enthusiasm, tariffs on solar panels made by Asian countries who are assembling or repackaging solar panels made in China were removed.
  • The Biden administration has also signaled its intention to remove or lift other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese products. It has also been friendlier toward Chinese companies such as Huawei and ByteDance (owner of TikTok) in recent weeks.

And all of this has been done with zero concessions from the Chinese government on any of the outstanding diplomatic, military, strategic, health or trade issues that so concern most Americans.

This story is shocking, threatens national security, and should dominate the attention of the major newspapers and news networks because of the damning implications. Because the Biden family has been so deeply involved and so vehemently denied their involvement with Chinese business, the next question is as inescapable as the first: Does the flow of money to the Biden family from China influence the foreign policy of the United States?

Based on a mountain of documentary evidence topped with one short, intimate voicemail message, the answer appears clearer than ever.

Peter Schweizer, President of the Governmental Accountability Institute, is a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow and author of the new book, Red Handed: How American Elites are Helping China Win.

King report

The King Report July 13, 2022 Issue 6799Independent View of the News
 ESUs traded modestly higher when Asian markets opened on Tuesday.  ESUs and stocks peaked at 20:00 ET.  After a slow rollover, ESUs and stocks sank until 23:04 ET.  ESUs and stocks then traded sideways until they broke lower during the final 8 minutes of Chinese trading.
 
The ensuing bounce was modest and ended when Europe opened.  ESUs and stocks hit daily lows at 3:34 ET.  ESUs and stocks then trade sideways with an upward bias until the US bond market opened at 7 ET.
 
ESUs and stock then commenced a rally that went vertical 10 minutes before the NYSE open.  Traders were eager to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and get an expiry-related upward squeeze going. 
 
Alas, sellers quickly appeared.  ESUs peaked (3876.50, +55.75 from the low) at 9:38 ET.  ESUs and stocks tumbled to an NYSE low at 10:02 ET.  ESUs then rallied from 3840.00 to 3868.50 at the 11:30 ET European close.  After a moderate retreat, ESUs and stock staged a Noon Balloon that ended at 13:01 ET.  An A-B-C decline that took ESUs to 3847.50 stalled after the VIX Fix (14:15 ET).
 
Alas again, ESUs and stocks commenced a tumble at 14:51 ET that took ESUs to a daily low of 3804.75 at 15:40 ET.  Pundits attributed the ESU tumble to a report that June CPI would be 1.7%.  After someone posted the fake +1.7% June CPI Report, ESUs rebounded 20 handles.  Reputed fake CPI report at: https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1546912276791365632/photo/1
 
@BLS_gov: We’re aware of a fake CPI release image circulating on Twitter. It is a fake. Stay tuned for the real CPI release tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.
 
The NY Fang+ Index soared on the NYSE open on conditioned buying that included expiry-related action.  The index peaked at 9:37 ET and then sank to a session low at 10:02 ET.  There is growing trepidation on The Street that big-tech and Fang earnings will be impaired by the super dollar.  PS – Where are all those ‘experts’ that have been pontificating on the demise of the dollar?
 
USUs traded flat during early Asian trading.  Near 21:00 ET, they commenced a robust rally that pushed USUs to 139 13/32, +27/32 from the early low.  After a modest retreat that lasted into the Chinese close at 2:00 ET, USUs went vertical at 2:41 ET.  After the 3:00 ET European open, USUs settled down into a methodical rally that peaked (140 6/32) near 5:00 ET.
 
USUs traded sideways until a modest dip appeared at 8:39 ET.  USUs then plodded higher until they hit a peak of 140 12/32 at 10:00 ET.  Bonds then traded sideways until they commenced a tumble at 12:15 ET.  USU persistently sank until 14:06 ET.  A modest rally turned into another decline at 15:33 ET.
 
The winds of recession intensified on Tuesday; energy and industrial commodities plunged.  WTI Oil settled at a three-month low of -$95.84 (95.41 low after settlement), -$8.25 or -7.93%.  Brent closed at 99.10, -8.00.  Gasoline declined as much as 6.1%.
 
The June NFIB Small Business Optimism survey sank to an all-time low of 89.5; 92.5 was expected.
 
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased 13 points from May to a net negative 28%, a severe decline.Fifty percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, down one point from May, but historically very high.The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 69% seasonally adjusted, following May’s record high reading…https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
 
@MacroAlf: The US National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey covers roughly 800 small US companies, and it’s a decent forward looking indicator for growth and employment.  Today’s release was very interesting.  Let’s unpack it in a short thread.  The chart above is a diffusion index built with answers to a question addressing the outlook companies have for general business conditions going forward. It looks really bad. Basically, they are not optimistic about the volume of their future sales…
    The labor market is still holding on okay, but in my opinion it’s only a matter of time before we see some crack… The NFIB survey does actually a decent job at predicting future changes in GDP and job market conditions…  https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1546927717936939009
 
WSJ: Starbucks closing 16 US locations, citing rising crime, drug use, homelessness that’s spilling into its cafes, bathrooms (Crime has an impact on economic activity.)
 
US Treasury announces additional $1.7Bn aid to Ukraine
https://guardian.ng/news/us-treasury-announces-additional-1-7-bn-aid-to-ukraine/
 
The euro hit parity with the dollar at 5:46 ET and then rebound robustly.  It usually takes more than one concerted effort to push a vehicle through a mega-important psychological threshold.
 
Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova:  Biden said today that China “is a real problem”. Saying such thing while considering cutting some tariffs on imports from China isn’t the smartest thing to do but who is really paying attention nowadays.
 
@AP: The Biden administration is calling on people to exercise renewed caution about COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of getting booster shots for those who are eligible and wearing masks indoors. Two new variants are spreading across the countryhttps://t.co/MxJ2Ubt3rj
 
Now that all Dem & Big Guy election gambits have failed (Jan 6 Hearings, abortion outrage, Ultra Maga disparagement, projecting blame on others, etc.), Dems are recycling Covid fear and oppression.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Bonds rallied but lost most of the rally in the afternoon
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks sank on recession, June CPI, and Q2 earnings anxiety
Commodities cratered on recession angst
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much will the dollar impact Q2 earnings?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: DownLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3831.64
Previous session High/Low3873.41; 3802.36
 
The Jerusalem Post’s @LahavHarkov: Biden’s schedule in Israel includes a long break – apparently for a nap – on Thursday afternoon and his engagements end early in the evening on both days, in fitting with yesterday’s NY Times article that says Biden doesn’t have meetings at night/evening (see Sundowner Syndrome). No dinner with PM Lapid.  The nap is not after the flight, it’s in the middle of the full day here… Turns out Biden is doing an evening event – his appearance at the Maccabiah games will be in the evening. He and Lapid are not going to speak at the event, however.
 
We noted a few weeks ago that the May CPI report sampled for gasoline prices during the second week of the month.  At that time gasoline prices were up moderately.  Thereafter, gasoline prices soared; but they peaked on June 10.  The BLS, if its former methodology is still employed, sampled on Tuesday, June 14.  On that day, gasoline prices were just two trading sessions from the peak.
 
A WH memo leaked yesterday states gasoline prices will force June CPI higher, but they be much lower for July.  This is absolutely accurate.  However, the WH memo warns the ‘US economy appears to be entering a period of slower jobs and economic development’.  This is accurate, also.
 
Today – Traders will react to the US June CPI Report after its release at 8:30 ET.  There could be a few sharp movements before the 9:30 ET NYSE open, including a substantial relief rally.  The key for today could be the magnitude and duration of the relief rally.
 
The usual suspects are conditioned to play for a Weird Wednesday upside manipulation to squeeze expiry July calls.  However, SPY July option volume on Tuesday was light for expiry week.
 
With June CPI anxiety ending, professionals will focus on Q2 earnings results.  Tomorrow contains the first significant results: JPM 2.88, FRC 2.08, MS 1.58.  More big banks report results on Fray.  ESUs are +6.00 and USUs are -20/32 at 20:45 ET. 
 
Expected Economic Data: June CPI 1.1 m/m, 8.8% y/y%, Core 0.5% m/m, 5.7% y/y; June Monthly Budget -$75.0B; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Expected earnings: FAST .50, DAL 1.59
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3957; 100-day MA: 4173; 150-day MA: 4317; 200-day MA: 4374
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,826; 100-day MA: 32,985; 150-day MA: 33,837; 200-day MA: 34,200
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4145.22 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3749.11 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3877.05 triggers a buy signal
 
@TuckerCarlson: The real story isn’t that Hunter Biden was a crackhead who liked prostitutes and underage girls, though that seems to be true. The real story is that the Biden family was doing business with the Chinese government.  https://video.foxnews.com/v/6309392812112
 
@NBCNews: U.S. Secret Service says it is “aware” of a potential hack of an iCloud account owned by Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, after some of its alleged contents were posted to 4Chan. https://t.co/FlmRse07bq
 
Bank (JPM) flagged Hunter Biden payments to Eastern European escort ring: report – Hunter complained in Feb. 2019 that his bank account was frozen for trying to make payments to an escort
https://justthenews.com/world/foreign-desk/hunter-biden-payments-eastern-european-escort-ring-were-flagged-bank-report
 
Jill Biden chided for saying Latinos as unique as ‘breakfast tacos’  https://t.co/fH8ATP5LPb
 
Hispanic journalists’ organization responds to Jill Biden: “We are not tacos” https://t.co/Ytd7KIlm0d
 
Jill Biden forced to apologize after saying Latinos unique as ‘breakfast tacos’ https://t.co/Cnq9yFZNO3
 
Biden again reminisces fondly about lunch with late segregationist Sen. James Eastland https://trib.al/eWKeiun
 
Sorry, Democrats: We’re Stuck with Joe and Kamala
Democrats chose Biden and Harris to lead them. Quickly casting them aside would be politically disastrous because it would signal to the rest of the country that the Democrats by their own admission can’t choose someone to lead the nation. And this logic holds not just for President Biden but for Vice President Harris…Some Black people, especially Black women, will feel that they are again being passed over and taken for granted by Democrats should Vice President Harris be forced into early retirement…
https://www.newsweek.com/sorry-democrats-were-stuck-joe-kamala-opinion-1722941?s=02
 
“Time for Trump to Hang Up His Hat” for DeSantis 2024, Says Musk
“I don’t hate the man, but it’s time for Trump to hang up his hat & sail into the sunset,” Musk wrote on Monday night in response to a video of Trump’s comments. “[Democrats] should also call off the attack—don’t make it so that Trump’s only way to survive is to regain the Presidency.”…
    Yeah, but too much drama. Do we really want a bull in a China shop situation every single day!?  Also, I think the legal maximum age for start of Presidential term should be 69.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/time-trump-hang-his-hat-desantis-2024-says-musk
 
Musk is exploiting the nationwide concern about Biden’s diminished mental capacity due to age against Trump, who is three years younger than Joe.  This is very clever and has a strong element of truth.  Trump later slammed Musk, a Twitter war had begun!  Musk, who supports DeSantis, keeps baiting the thin-skinned DJT.  Musk has nothing to lose.  If DJT keeps swallowing Musk’s bait, he will reinforce the notion that he is an unpresidential and ill-tempered Bad Orangeman.
 
@greg_price11: Hawley: Why are you using the term “person with a capacity for pregnancy” instead of “woman?” Bridges: “Your line of questioning is transphobic and opens trans people to violence.”  Hawley: “You’re saying I’m opening up people to violence by saying women can have pregnancies?”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1546891926997188608
 
GOP Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: The Democrats say what they really think: men can get pregnant and if you disagree, you are “transphobic” and responsible for violence.
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1546902849837322241
 
Woke Insanity: Hawley States Only Women Can Get Pregnant. UC Prof, Abortion Rights Advocate, Calls Him ‘Transphobic’   https://www.dailywire.com/news/woke-insanity-hawley-states-only-women-can-get-pregnant-uc-prof-abortion-rights-advocate-calls-him-transphobic
 
The legacy media and Dems have enabled people to espouse insanity to keep the disaffected, disgruntled, and delusional people on their farm.  This could end with electoral routs in 2022 and 2024.
 
Authorities outraged after duo busted with $1.2 million worth of meth out on supervised release
Under current New York State law, neither man could be charged with a bail-eligible offense. Methamphetamine is categorized as a controlled substance, but not a narcotic drug,” Special Narcotics Prosecutor Bridget Brennan said in a statement on the arrests…  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/authorities-outraged-after-duo-busted-with-1-2-million-worth-of-meth-out-on-supervised-release/ar-AAZuA70
 
@JackPosobiec: Jan 6 Committee accidentally presents evidence there was a 2nd stage at the Supreme Court that Trump wanted people to march to.  The Supreme Court is directly behind the US Capitol from the Ellipse.  This revelation debunks the entire ‘insurrection’ narrative.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1546939086019219457
 
@TomFitton: Courts in two key states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, essentially found 2020 presidential elections in those states were conducted in violation of law.  This eviscerates Left’s big lie that there was no good faith reason to dispute election or challenge presidential electors.
 
Cassidy Hutchinson Begged Senior Trump Officials for ‘Financial Assistance’ after Being Subpoenaed by J6 Committee  https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/12/cassidy-hutchinson-asked-senior-trump-officials-financial-assistance-legal-help-subpoenaed-january-6-committee/
 
John Bolton, ex-White House national security adviser and a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said on CNN that he helped plan attempted coups in foreign countries https://reut.rs/3ALBGLl
 
3 charged after Beverly shooting paralyzes off-duty Chicago police officer
Golden’s mother said he did identify himself as a police officer when he was trying to break up the fight… Harrell was charged Tuesday with felony unlawful use of a weapon and felony aggravated battery and discharge of a firearm.
    Hayes was charged with two felony counts of aggravated unlawful use of a weapon and two counts of felony aggravated battery and discharge of a firearm.
   Krismantis faces two felony counts of aggravated battery and discharge of a firearm, felony aggravated unlawful use of a weapon and one misdemeanor count of obstructing an officer…
https://wgntv.com/news/3-charged-after-beverly-shooting-paralyzes-chicago-police-officer/
 
Weak Human, Strong Force: Applying Advanced Chess to Military AI
Gary Kasparov, one of the greatest chess players of all time, developed advanced chess after losing his 1997 match to IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer. Advanced chess marries the computational precision of machine algorithms with the intuition of human beings…
    In 2005, a chess website hosted an advanced chess tournament open to any player. Extraordinarily, the winners of the tournament were not grandmasters and their machines, but two chess amateurs utilizing three different computers. Kasparov observed, “their skill at manipulating and ‘coaching’ their computers to look very deeply into the positions effectively counteracted the superior chess understanding of their Grandmaster opponents and the greater computational power of other participants.” Kasparov concluded that a “weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and … superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.” This conclusion became known as Kasparov’s Law… Kasparov’s key insight was that building a “better process” requires an informed human at the human-machine interface. If operators do not understand the rules and the limitations of their AI partners, they will ask the wrong questions or command the wrong actions…
   Artificial intelligence is rapidly disrupting traditional analysis and becoming a force multiplier for humans, allowing them to focus on orchestration rather than the minutia of rote and repetitive tasks…
https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/weak-human-strong-force-applying-advanced-chess-to-military-ai/
 

 

Greg Hunter: interviewing Craig Hemke

The Math Says Buy Gold & Silver Now – Craig Hemke

By Greg Hunter On July 12, 2022 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Financial writer, market analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke predicted at the beginning of 2022, “This is going to be a wild, unpredictable year.  It will be volatile.”  He’s been right, and, now, for the second act or second half of the year.  Today, Hemke says, “You can believe in magic or you can believe in math, and if you believe in math — buy gold.”

The math, according to Hemke, says the Fed is about to do an about-face and start money printing and cutting rates.  Please keep in mind, by every metric, the economy is tanking, and this is an election year where the Democrats in power are weaker than they have ever been.  Hemke says, “We are already in a recession, and that is a textbook definition.    People are hurting badly.  Everybody knows this. . . . What’s going to happen is the interest rate picture is going to get completely out of control, or what is most likely going to happen and that is the Fed is . . . going to put the pedal to the metal with QE (money printing) up to your eyeballs trying to rush to catch up with that train that is accelerating away from them.  Man, this is coming. . . . What keeps me going is the math, and that is the math.  This is going to happen, and it will be sometime soon. . . . That is when the flood gates open again, and investment demand for everything precious metal . . . the cash comes flowing into the sector and the price takes off.  Sometimes it will move up by 50% in five months as it has in the past.”

Hemke says inflation is the cause of the downfall of countries and the rise of tyrants and reads a passage from the book “When Money Dies.”   Hemke reads, “Inflation could produce the conditions where extremists of right and left could raise the mob against the state, set class against class, race against race, family against family, husband against wife, trade against trade, town against country.  It undermined national resolution simply when want or need might have bolstered it.  It causes fear and insecurity with those who have already known too much of both. . . . It prompted contempt for government and subversion of law.’  That was Germany in 1922.  How is that not the U.S. in 2022?  Amazing!! . . . We are preparing for the end of the debt-based system, and gold and silver are your lifeboat in the storm.”

There is much more in the 45 min interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Craig Hemke of the popular website TFMetalsReport.com 7.12.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/the-math-says-buy-gold-silver-now-craig-hemke/)

After the Interview: 

There is some free information on TFMetalsReport.com.

See you Thursday

One comment

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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