JULY 18//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.55 TO $1712.20/SILVER IS UP 25 CENTS TO $18.92//PLATINUM UP $25.30 TO $872.10//PALLADIUM UP $20.40 TO $1870.65//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//TOM LUONGO A VERY IMPORTANT READ//UPDATES ON FRANCE,HOLLAND (FARMERS) AND GERMANY//SEEMS THAT GAZPROM IS ISSUED A FORCE MAJEURE THAT THEY CANNOT DELIVER GAS TO GERMANY AND FOR THE REST OF EUROPE//USA DATA: RECESSION IN USA LOOMS//HOUSE BUILDER CONFIDENCE FALTERS AGAIN//BANK OF AMERICA REPORTS LOUSY NUMBERS THIS MORNING//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1712.20 UP $7.55 

SILVER: $18.92 up 25 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1709.05

SILVER: $18.70

Bitcoin morning price:  $22,041 UP 1064

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,783. UP 806 

Platinum price: closing UP $25.30 to $872.10

Palladium price; closing UP $20.45  at $1870.65

END

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,702.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/15/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/19/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 100
167 C MAREX 361
323 H HSBC 5
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 282
661 C JP MORGAN 90 119
800 C MAREX SPEC 9


TOTAL: 485 485
MONTH TO DATE: 6,922

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 119/485 

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT 485  NOTICE(S) FOR 48,500 Oz//1/5085  TONNES)

total notices so far: 6922 contracts for 692,200 oz (21.530 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

76 NOTICE(S) FILED 380,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  3138 :  for 15,690,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7.55 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 25 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 515.838 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2395  CONTRACTS TO 146,693   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.31 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.31) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 2055 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 245,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : +60

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 11 days, total 10,911  contracts:  54.555 million oz  OR 4.959 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (991 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 54.555 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 54.555 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2495 DESPITE OUR  $0.31 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 430 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 245,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2025 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.125 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE  GAIN IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 76  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  380,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 6,241 CONTRACTS  TO 546,081 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + 182 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITION ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 69,400 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $3.75 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3108  OI CONTRACTS 9/645 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2958  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 546,081

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3108 CONTRACTS  WITH 6049 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2958 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3108 CONTRACTS OR 9/645 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2958) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6,049,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  3,108 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 69,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS/ //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

61,075 CONTRACTS OR 6,107,500 OZ OR 189.96  TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5552 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 189.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  189.96/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 189.96 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2395 CONTRACT OI TO 146,633 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 430 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 430  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:430 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2395  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 430 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1965   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9.825 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.31

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.04 PTS OR 1.55%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 548.46 OR 2.70%    /The Nikkei closed UP 145.08 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1/32%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7443    /Oil UP TO 99.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 103.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7443 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7501: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6,049 CONTRACTS TO 546,081 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $3.75  IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  FAIR SIZED EFP (2958 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2958 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :2958 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2958 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 3,108  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2958 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 6,049  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $3.75.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (22.709),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 22.709 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $3.75) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF A FEW  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 9.645 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (22.709 TONNES)

WE HAD -XX  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3,108 CONTRACTS OR  310,800  OZ OR 9.645 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 170,366/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  204,724 / poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 18

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz1736.15 oz
Manfra
brinks
24 kilobars and 30 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today485  notice(s)
48,500 OZ
1.5085 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)377 contracts 37,700 oz
1.1726 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6922 notices
692,200 OZ
21.830 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks 771.620 oz (Brinks)

ii)Out of Manfra:  964.730 oz (Manfra)

total withdrawal: 1736.15   oz

ADJUSTMENTS:2 dealer to customer

i) Malca 138,602.961 oz

ii) Manfra: 64,694.979 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 862 contracts having LOST 850 contracts . We had

1544 notices filed on Friday so we gained a WHOPPING 694  contracts or an additional 69,400 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 11,107 contracts down to 254,616 contracts

Sept. lost 9 contracts to 2695 contracts.

We had 485 notice(s) filed today for  48,500 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  90 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 485 contract(s) of which   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  119 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6922) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 862  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 485 x 100 oz per contract equals 729,900 OZ  OR 22.709 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6922) x 100 oz+   (862)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (485} x 100 oz} which equals 660,500 oz standing OR 22.702 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  22.709 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  31,897,002.252 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,998.217  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,898,190.035 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,454657.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 421 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 18

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory123,278.300  oz
Delaware
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)76CONTRACT(S)
585,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)162 contracts
 (810,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3138 contracts 
15,690,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.916 million oz/341.826 million =51.74% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:2

i) Out of CNT: 121,247.390 oz

iv) out of Delaware  2035.000

total withdrawal  123,278.300         oz

 adjustments: 0/

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.196 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341.820 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 238 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST42 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 91 NOTICES FILED

ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 49 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  245,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 23 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1099

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 2496 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,449 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 76 for  380,000 oz

Comex volumes:41,882// est. volume today//  poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 55,134 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3138 x 5,000 oz = 15 690,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(238) and the number of notices served upon today 76  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 3138 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (238)  – number of notices served upon today (76) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 16,500,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1014.28 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A IWTHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 515.838 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: A Tale Of Two Dollars

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 09:50 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The dollar has been on a tear in recent months. Just last week, the dollar index moved from 107 to 108 with an inter-week high of 109.3. The greenback also hit parity with the euro last week. The dollar is near a 20-year high compared to the European currency and a 24-year high against the Japanese yen.

And yet we have a massive devaluing of the dollar domestically. In his podcast, Peter tries to make sense of this tale of two dollars.

You can see the impact of dollar strength on import-export prices.

Export prices rose 0.7 on the month and are up 18.2% on the year – double the consumer price index. Peter noted that import prices are a better reflection of prices paid by consumers for domestically produced goods than the 9.1% CPI.

That is a real number, unlike the CPI that is a completely contrived, made-up number where you have a formula that’s reverse-engineered to come out with a lower number.”

On the flip side, import prices are much lower thanks to the power of the dollar. Nevertheless, even with dollar strength, import prices are still up 10.7% year-on-year.

It’s because the dollar is so strong that import prices are only up by 10.7% on the year. Because if the dollar wasn’t so strong, import prices would have gone up a lot more than that and that would have spilled over into the CPI. So, but for the strong dollar, we would have much higher inflation numbers than the ones we’re dealing with.”

The situation is the opposite overseas. Europeans and Japanese are paying much more for stuff they import from the US.

So, their weak currencies are exacerbating their inflation problem, whereas our strong currency is mitigating our inflation problem.”

Peter said the overall dynamics make no sense whatsoever. The US has the highest inflation in 40 years, and yet it also has the strongest dollar in 20 years. How can that be?

How can the dollar be so weak and yet be so strong at the exact same time?”

THE DYNAMICS

When you boil it all down, inflation is the loss of a currency’s purchasing power.

If our currency buys less, that means the currency is weakening. It is losing value. We need more and more dollars to buy the same quantity of goods and services.”

If the government gave everybody $1 million, we wouldn’t be richer in absolute terms. The limiting factor isn’t money. The government can print money at will. The limiting factor is always the availability of goods and services.

If the government sends everybody a check for $1 million, but the factories don’t produce any more products than they were producing before, if service providers aren’t providing any additional services than they were before, what happens? Well, the only thing that can happen is that prices have to go up so that Americans end up buying the same quantity of goods and services. They just pay $1 million more to buy them because each dollar that they have has less value. That’s basic supply and demand. As the supply of anything goes up, demand being equal, the value of that thing has to come down. So, if you double or triple the supply of dollars, the value of each dollar is going to lose a commensurate amount of value.”

That’s what’s happening in the US. It’s not so much that prices are going up. The value of the dollar is going down. There are trillions more dollars in the economy than there were a few years ago and therefore the value of each dollar is falling.

But while the dollar is losing value, it’s not been this strong in decades. It’s gaining value relative to other currencies.

That is the dichotomy. It’s a tale of two dollars. You have the domestic dollar that is weak and losing value. And then you’ve got this international dollar that is strong and is gaining value.”

The strength of the international dollar is helping Americans somewhat, but the weakness domestically is outstripping that international strength.

The question remains — why is the dollar so strong internationally when it’s so weak domestically?

During the inflationary period of the 1970s, the dollar got destroyed. It didn’t start rebounding until Paul Volker got serious about fighting inflation.

If you look at everything from a fundamental perspective, today’s inflation should be exacting an even larger toll on the value of the dollar relative to other currencies than it was back in the 70s. Yet, the opposite is happening. Inflation is actually turning into a boon for the dollar. The weaker the dollar is in America, the stronger it becomes overseas.”

Why is that? Where is all the demand for dollars coming from? Foreigners don’t need dollars to buy US products. The US is running a massive trade deficit.

The demand is coming from speculators.

Right now, the dollar is acting as an inflation hedge for everybody outside of the United States. It’s not an inflation hedge inside the United States. You can’t buy the dollar to hedge inflation if you’re an American living in the US because there’s no hedge. The dollar is losing value. … That’s not the dynamic that Europeans are looking at, or the Japanese. From their perspective, yields in the US are very positive because they’re looking at the appreciation of the US dollar.”

Keep in mind that inflation is a worldwide problem. All of the world’s central banks have expanded their money supply. For people outside the US, the dollar looks like a solution to that problem. As the old saying goes, it’s the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper.

Ther is also a self-perpetuating dynamic in play. As foreigners buy the dollar to hedge their currency’s inflation, the dollar goes up, reinforcing the idea that it’s an inflation hedge. That suckers in more buying.

But Peter said none of this fundamentally makes sense.

The dollar is rising on the greater fool theory. Why are people buying dollars? Not because they need them to buy American products. They’re buying them because they think some greater fool is going to pay a higher price for their dollars in the future. … That can go on for only so long until ultimately the bubble pops. And that is what is going to happen to this dollar bubble. Because that’s what it is. It’s a massive reinforcing bubble where people are buying the dollar because it’s going up. And because it’s going up, people buy it.”

At some point, people will start selling dollars to get their own currencies back. Then what?

Peter said this is the primary reason the world isn’t rushing to gold. Right now, the dollar looks like a much better alternative to gold.

Right now, the dollar is stealing gold’s luster. For a while, it was bitcoin that everybody wanted instead of gold. But now it’s the dollar that everybody wants instead of gold. Eventually, people are going to figure out that they don’t want the dollar just like a lot of them figured out they don’t want bitcoin. There is ultimately going to be a rush into gold. As I’ve been saying, gold will be the last safe haven standing because it’s the only true safe haven.”

In this podcast, Peter also discusses the fact inflation is not due to “expectations,” the politics of inflation, and he explains why investors sheltering in dollars abroad are in for a rude awakening.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

For your interest….

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Swiss vault renovation delays transfer of Austrian gold from London

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-07-17 11:44Section: Daily Dispatches

11:35a ET Sunday, July 17, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins writes today that Austrian gold reserves that were to have been transferred from the Bank of England in London to storage in Switzerland are still in London.

But he adds that the delay doesn’t seem to be nefarious. Rather, Nieuwenhuijs writes, the problem is that the Swiss central bank’s main gold vault is still being renovated and Switzerland’s own gold reserves have been temporarily relocated as a result. 

He provides an interesting history of Switzerland’s long involvement with gold storage and refining.

His analysis is headlined “Swiss Central Bank Moved Its Gold From Berne to a Federal Bunker in Kandersteg” and it’s posted at the Gainesville Coins internet site here:

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/swiss-central-bank-moved-its-gold-mystery

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is interesting: Ukraine has sold more than #12 billion of its gold during its war with Russia

(Max Hunder/Reuters) 

Ukraine has sold more than $12 billion of its gold during war with Russia

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-07-17 17:39Section: Daily Dispatches

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted. — Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

* * *

By Max Hunder
Reuters
Sunday, July 17, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-cbank-has-sold-over-12-bln-its-gold-reserves-during-war-deputy-head-2022-07-17/

KYIV — Ukraine’s central bank has sold $12.4 billion of gold reserves since the beginning of Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, the bank’s deputy head said on Sunday.

“We are selling (this gold) so that our importers are able to buy necessary goods for the country,” Deputy Governor Kateryna Rozhkova told national television. She said the gold was not being sold to shore up Ukraine’s hryvnia currency.

END

No question about it:  the USA had already stripped Ukraine of its gold reserves

(GATA)

Has the U.S. just stripped Ukraine of its gold reserves?

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-07-17 19:28Section: Daily Dispatches

7:32p ET Sunday, July 17, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Eight years ago as Russia seozed Crimea from Ukraine, Ukraine’s gold appeared to have been hastily shipped to the United States. Nobody in authority would deny it:

https://gata.org/node/14744

Today the Ukrainian central bank acknowledged that $12 billion of its gold reserves recently was sold under pressure of the war with Russia that began this year:

https://www.gata.org/node/22063

Since Russia began its attack on Ukraine’s non-Crimean territory in February, the United States and its allies have appropriated tens of billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. So why would Ukraine need to sell its gold reserves unless doing so was a condition of all that U.S. and European assistance, especially since the United States already had taken custody of the Ukrainian gold?

Stripping the wounded of their valuables in wartime always suggests greed or desperation — like desperation to keep the gold price down to support the U.S. dollar and other Western currencies..

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Environmentalists are providing a brick wall against a new gold rush

(WashingtonPost/GATA)

A new gold rush pits money and jobs against California’s environment

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-07-17 18:22 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Scott Wilson
Washington Post
Sunday, July 17, 2022

GRASS VALLEY, Calif. — Where the Sacramento Valley steepens into the Sierra Nevada, Susan Love found a home with big windows and pine-forest views. It was the house she shared happily with her husband before his death.

The surroundings, though, are changing.

There is still a lot of gold in these hills and a lot of money at stake. But across California, a strong environmental ethos and, in many historic places, an economic shift toward tourism are now sharply at odds with the resumption of gold mining, despite its promise of new jobs more than a century and a half after tens of thousands of migrants arrived to strike it rich in this state on the country’s edge.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/17/california-gold-rush-environment-jobs/

END

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

This proves that the commercials are going net long and the specs are going net short

The Commitment of Traders Report on Friday afternoon showed the following:

Silver

*The large specs increased their long positions by 97 contracts and increased their shorts by 1,838 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 1,728 contracts and reduced their shorts by 282 contracts.

*The small specs reduced their longs by 747 contracts and decreased their shorts by 672 contracts.

Gold

*The large specs reduced their long positions by 16,680 contracts and increased their shorts by 10,859 contracts.

*The commercials increased their longs by 12,881 contracts and decreased their shorts by 14,916 contracts.

*The small specs increased their longs by 8,650 contracts and increased their shorts by 8,908 contracts.

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7443

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7501

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 548.46 PTS OR  2.70%

2. Nikkei closed UP 145.03 OR 0.54%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  10./44/Euro RISES TO 1.01239

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 138.35/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.147%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.30%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.51//

3j Gold at $1713.85 silver at: 18.87  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 75/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.41

3m oil into the 99 dollar handle for WTI and  103 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.07DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9783– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9904well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.989  UP 6  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.096  UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.56

Futures Jump As Traders Scale Back Fed Hike Expectations As Economy Slumps

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 08:24 AM

US equity futures and global markets stormed higher, as the dollar extended its slide from a record high as investors scaled back bets on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten policy in response to growing recession fears which Bloomberg paradoxocially interpreted as “easing recession fears.” In other words, rising risk of a recession lowers the risk of a Fed-induced recession. Lovely.

In any case, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.2% and contracts on the S&P 500 added 1%, with spoos trading back over 3,900 and more than 5% above June’s closing low following Friday’s strong rally on renewed hopes that the Fed will end its rate hikes and soon start cutting rates as well as end QT. West Texas Intermediate crude oil also stormed higher, undoing all recent losses and traded near $100 a barrel while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.5%, extending a retreat from a record high. The benchmark Treasury yield rose back toward 3%.

As Q2 earnings season rolls out, Goldman Sachs shares surged as much as 4% in premarket trading after the  bank reported second-quarter results that were better than expected in nearly every area. Bank of America Corp.’s results were more mixed. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Lilium (LILM US) shares rise as much as 10% in US premarket trading on Monday after Bristow (VTOL US) secured the option to purchase 50 Lilium Jets in addition to providing maintenance services for the aircraft’s launch network in Florida, and other future U.S and European markets.
  • ITHAX Acquisition (ITHX US) shares rise 32% in US premarket trading, extending gains after its holders approved the previously proposed business combination with Mondee at the EGM held on July 15, 2022.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining in premarket trading after Bitcoin rose as much as 7.3% to trade above $22,000 for the first time in more than a month. Marathon Digital (MARA US) +8.8%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +5.1%, Coinbase (COIN US) +6.2%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.3%, Ebang (EBON US) +2.3%
  • Watch JPMorgan (JPM US) shares as Berenberg raises recommendation to hold, saying the investment bank’s shares are trading at a 20% discount to their long-run average and given the temporary nature of headwinds, downside risks to the stock “are now more limited.”

Policy makers pushed back against even bigger hikes in interest rates and fresh data showed a greater decline in US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations. That boosted odds for a 75 basis points July Fed rate hike, squashing talk of a 100 basis-point move after last week flirting with the prospect of a 100 basis-points move after data showed no let-up in stubbornly high price pressures. Yet the bullish market reaction prompted some such as Goldman to ask if the worst is now behind us.

Still, the outlook remains troubling for many investors. Gains in stock markets may prove to be short-lived as inflation pressures remain high and a recession seems increasingly likely, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Risk-reward at these levels has certainly improved but because we have not yet fully priced in a recession, it’s hard to say that the markets are screaming cheap,” said Anastasia Amoroso, the chief investment strategist at iCapital.

In Europe, stocks surged to the highest level in more than a month, with the Stoxx 50 jumping 1.3%, and with FTSE MIB outperforming peers, adding 1.4%, while IBEX lags, adding 0.6%. Miners, energy and banks are the strongest-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. Energy and basic resources sectors lead gains in the Stoxx 600 as oil rises after Saudi Arabia refrained from pledges to increase crude supplies, while metals rebound amid reports of China’s steps to help developers. Shell rose as much as 3.8%, TotalEnergies +2.7%, BP +3.7%, Rio Tinto +4.3%, Antofagasta +5.1%, KGHM +6.4%. Here are some of the other notable European movers today:

  • GTT jumps as much as 7.5% as Societe Generale raises its price target on the LNG containment systems firm and reiterates a buy rating, as it sees the firm on the brink of its “strongest and longest period of growth” ever.
  • Solvay rises as much as 5.3% after reporting preliminary results. Citi said the chemicals company reported a solid beat, driven by both volumes and prices contribution from all three segments.
  • Luxury stocks including Cartier owner Richemont and UK trench-coat maker Burberry rebound after declines on Friday, with Deutsche Bank noting that there’s no underlying slowdown in consumer demand for luxury. Richemont shares rise as much as 5%, Burberry +3.8%, LVMH +1.7%
  • BASF gains as much as 4.2% as Bank of America double upgrades the stock to buy from underperform, arguing that the market is overlooking the partial hedge of its oil & gas assets in Wintershall.
  • Nel jumps as much as 16% after the electrolyzer firm announced a 200MW alkaline electrolyzer equipment order. Citi says the order is likely to be taken well by the market as it supports Nel’s medium-term growth outlook and is a positive sign for the trajectory of industry demand.
  • Direct Line falls as much as 15% following profit guidance that was “even worse” than feared amid cost inflation, according to Jefferies, which had cut the stock to hold from buy prior to the statement Monday.
  • Verbund declines as much as 7.8% after Austrian government officials suggested they’re considering a partial cap on household power bills.

Asian stocks climbed as investors dial back expectations of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve while weighing China’s policy support for the ailing property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4% Monday, poised for the first gain in three days, led by financial and technology shares. Hong Kong and South Korean equities were among the top gainers in the region, while the Japanese market was closed for a holiday. Chinese shares gained after central bank Governor Yi Gang said the monetary authority will step up efforts to provide stronger economic support amid the pandemic and external headwinds. Regulators also urged banks to support developers to help stabilize the real estate market, according to another report. Asian markets took a breather as comments from two Fed officials, as well as a drop in US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations, eased fears about a super-sized interest rate hike this month. Still, ongoing Covid outbreaks in China and woes in the nation’s property sector are clouding the region’s outlook. The Asian stock benchmark is hovering near a two-year low. The Chinese central bank “doesn’t want the economy to overheat in the short term” but more policy initiatives are needed, Vikas Pershad, a fund manager at M&G Investments, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The slowdown in the property market is not just a small subset of mortgage payments being held back. It’s the ripple effects that go throughout the economy. And that carries through many different sectors.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.2% to close at 6,687.10, boosted by gains across miners, banks and energy shares.  A group of materials stocks rebounded as iron ore shook off losses. Whitehaven’s earnings outlook also drove optimism against the backdrop of a tightening market.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.4% to 11,163.63.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.5%, underperforming other Group-of-10 peers; JPY and NZD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, while GBP and SEK outperform. MXN (+0.9%) and LB (+0.8%) lead gains in EMFX. The British pound led gains.The euro rose to the highest level in a week against the dollar. The weekly fear-greed indicator hit the most bearish levels since the Greek crisis in early 2015 on Friday. The New Zealand dollar rose as much as 0.6% to $0.6201 before paring the move, after inflation accelerated more than expected in the second quarter to a fresh 32-year high, fueling bets on further aggressive tightening by the central bank,

In rates, Treasuries fell across the curve along with German bonds. US yields were cheaper by 2.5bp to 4bp across a slightly steeper curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 1bp and 0.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.96%, cheaper by 4bp on the day while bunds underperform by additional 4bp. Italian benchmark 10-year yields surged as much as 12 basis points to 3.39%, with little sign of reconciliation among Italy’s governing coalition over the weekend. The spread between Italian and German 10-year yields rose to 223 basis points, the widest in a month, before retracing some of the move. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy tightens, Spain widens and Portugal widens.

Commodities were broadly stronger after Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East ended being a total dud and without a firm commitment from Saudi Arabia to boost crude supplies. Wheat climbed after a five-day slump and copper rallied. Crude futures advanced. as WTI drifts 1.9% higher to trade near $99.49. Brent rises 2.2% near $103.34. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel rises 3.3%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $13 to trade near $1,721/oz. Spot silver gains 1.2% near $19.

US nat gas futures extended gains above the $7 level as scorching temperatures across the country boost air-conditioning demand. A heat wave in the UK and France pushed up European natural gas prices, exacerbating the region’s worst energy crunch in decades.

Separately, traders are also closely watching whether the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia will fully return to service later this week, when it ends scheduled maintenance. Moscow has already curbed supplies to the continent amid tensions related to its invasion of Ukraine: “The possibility that Russia stops, or severely reduces, their gas exports to Europe should keep markets on edge in the near-term,” Mizuho International Plc strategists Peter McCallum and Evelyne Gomez-Liechti wrote in a note to clients.

Bitcoin is bid and lifting above the $22k mark after rising above the $20K support that it has been pivoting, generally speaking, recently.

It’s a quiet start to an otherwise very busy week (with both the ECB and BOJ on deck), and we only get the NAHB Housing Market Index and the May TIC data later today. We also conclude bank earnings with BofA and Goldman reporting results premarket.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,907.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 419.76
  • MXAP up 1.4% to 156.28
  • MXAPJ up 1.8% to 516.33
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,788.47
  • Topix little changed at 1,892.50
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 20,846.18
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 3,278.10
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 54,359.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 6,687.14
  • Kospi up 1.9% to 2,375.25
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.17%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.0134
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,719.39
  • US Dollar Index down 0.52% to 107.50

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • After drawing foreign capital into China’s markets for years, President Xi Jinping is now facing the risk of a nasty period of financial de-globalization. Investors point to one main reason why: Xi’s own policies
  • China may allow homeowners to temporarily halt mortgage payments on stalled property projects without incurring penalties, people familiar with the matter said, as authorities race to prevent a crisis of confidence in the housing market from upending the world’s second-largest economy.
  • Prime Minister Mario Draghi is under mounting pressure to reverse his pledge to resign as soon as this week and avoid throwing Italy into chaos as economic warning signs are building
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered part of his forces to focus on destroying Ukraine’s long-range missile and artillery systems during a visit to troops in occupied territory

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks gained with risk appetite spurred after last Friday’s firm gains on Wall St. and renewed China support pledges helped markets shrug off China’s COVID woes. ASX 200 was underpinned amid M&A activity and with Australia reinstating quarantined-support payments. Nikkei 225 was closed as Japan observed the Marine Day holiday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. outperformed regional counterparts after PBoC Governor Yi pledged to increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy to provide stronger support for the real economy and with the property sector underpinned after the CBIRC asked lenders to provide credit to eligible developers so they can complete unfinished residential properties.

Top Asian News

  • China reported 580 local cases on Saturday which was the highest since May 23rd. It was also reported that Shanghai said that the situation in the city remained severe. It was also reported that Shanghai is planning to conduct district-wide testing in 9 COVID-impacted districts and other smaller scope areas from Wednesday-Friday, while China’s Tianjin is also planning massive COVID tests, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
  • China is considering a mortgage grace period for home projects that have stalled, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Macau will extend its lockdown of businesses and casino closures to July 22nd, according to Reuters; subsequently, a health officials said some social activites could resume in the next week if cases drop.
  • Beijing government official says no cases have been found so far in COVID tests of nearby neighborhoods, according to a media briefing.
  • Chinese cyberspace regulator is to launch a two-month clean-up campaign which will focus on minors use of livestreaming, games and e-commerce platforms, according to State meida.
  • US State Department approved a possible USD 108mln military sale to Taiwan, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese daily COVID infection cases surpassed 110k on Saturday which was a record high, according to Jiji news agency.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated sharp volatility is seen in the FX market and that they must watch moves with a strong sense of urgency, while he also noted that G20 affirmed their agreement on FX and that many countries including Japan, strongly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • South Korean Finance Minister Choo said they are to exempt taxes on income from Korean treasury bonds to attract foreign investment, according to Reuters.

European bourses are firmer across the board in a continuation of and extension on the overnight risk tone, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%. Sectors are firmer across the board with the upside spearheaded by Basic Resources, Energy, and Banks – due to price action in underlying commodity prices, alongside yields. US futures are similarly bid, as we await further earnings with key names including Goldman Sachs on the docket. Delta (DAL) to buy 100 737 Max 10 Boeing (BA) craft, option for 30 additional craft. US chip firms are said to be mulling whether to oppose the CHIPS Act as it may disproportionately benefit Intel (INTC), according to Reuters sources

Top European News

  • UK PM Johnson’s allies are stepping up their attacks against former Chancellor Sunak and accused him of going soft on Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trade regime, according to FT.
  • UK Foreign Secretary Truss signalled she would tighten ministerial scrutiny of the BoE if she becomes the next PM and accused the Bank of failing to tackle inflation, according to FT.
  • A poll by JL Partners of more than 4,400 people found that 48% that backed the Tories in 2019 considered former Chancellor Sunak would be a good PM, while 39% thought the same of Foreign Secretary Truss and 33% thought the same of Trade Secretary Mordaunt, according to The Telegraph.
  • ConservativeHome survey suggested Trade Secretary Mordaunt would lose in a head-to-head against former Chancellor Sunak (41% vs 43%) and against Foreign Secretary Truss (41% vs 48%), according to The Telegraph.
  • UK Foreign Secretary Truss confirms she will not be attending Tuesday’s (July 19th) Sky News leadership debate, via Huffington Post’s Schofield; additionally, reports that former-Chancellor Sunak is pulling out of the debate.
  • Italy’s League and Forza Italia parties said they can no longer govern with the 5-Star Movement which brings the government closer to collapsing ahead of a potential confidence vote on Wednesday, according to Politico.
  • European Investment Bank said it will reduce road and infrastructure funding in line with its climate objectives, according to FT.

Central Banks

  • Fed officials signalled they are likely to increase rates by 75bps at the July meeting and noted that although policymakers left the door open for a 100bps increase, some have simultaneously poured cold water on the idea in recent interviews and comments, according to WSJ.
  • RBNZ announced a new standing repurchase facility which will permit eligible counterparties to lend NZD through the standing repurchase facility from July 20th and will be remunerated at the OCR -15bps, while the RBNZ will deliver to counterparty nominal New Zealand government bonds as collateral in exchange for depositing NZD, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC Governor Yi said China’s economy faces downward pressure due to COVID and external shocks, while he added that the central bank will increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy to provide stronger support for the real economy, according to a PBoC statement cited by Reuters.
  • HKMA said they need to regulate decentralised finance platforms sooner rather than later, while RBA Governor Lowe commented that it is likely better for retail digital currency tokens to be issued by regulated private sector companies than central banks, according to Reuters.
  • SNB intends to increase rates by at least 50bp (from the current -0.25%) at the September gathering, in the scenaro of further inflation upside a 75bp move could occur, according to sources via Schweiz am Wochenende.
  • BoE’s Saunders says he will not announce today how he will vote at the August meeting; believes that the tightening cycle has “some way to go”, the cost of not tightening promptly enough would be relatively high at present.
  • Czech central bank’s Dedek said it is appropriate today to use FX intervention to prevent the crown from weakening and the aim is not to strengthen the currency, while he added that they are far from the point they would start to feel reserves are getting dangerously low, according to Lidove Noviny.

FX

  • Sterling takes advantage of Buck’s demise even before hawkish commentary from BoE’s Saunders, Cable closer to 1.2000 than 1.1850, DXY nearer 107.000 than 108.00.
  • Aussie underpinned by rebound in iron ore ahead of RBA minutes, AUD/USD approaching 0.6850 from sub-0.6800 overnight low.
  • Euro probes 1.0150 vs Greenback ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and expected 25 bp hike.
  • Loonie supported by recovery in WTI and BoC Governor Macklem flagging Canadian CPI on 8% handle next week, USD/CAD below 1.3000.
  • Kiwi capped after stronger than forecast NZ inflation data as RBNZ announces standing repo for loans 15 bp below OCR to start on July 20th, NZD/USD hovering under 0.6200 and AUD/NZD cross above 1.1050.
  • Franc lags irrespective of reporting suggesting SNB to hike at least half point again in September as weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic bank increase, USD/CHF pivots 0.9750.
  • Lira lurches further in wake of Turkish budget balance turning from surplus to deficit, USD/TRY testing 17.5000 offers and semi-psychological resistance.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent have been moving higher with the broader risk tone and after the Biden-Saudi meeting with attention, for the complex, looking to the next OPEC+ gathering.
  • Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MBS said adopting unrealistic policies toward energy sources will lead to inflation and he called on Iran to cooperate with the region, according to Reuters. Saudi’s Crown Prince also said that they have an immediate capacity to increase production to 12mln bpd and with investments, production can go to 13mln bpd after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production.
  • Saudi Foreign Minister said that they listen to their partners and friends across the world especially consumer countries but added that at the end of the day, OPEC+ follows the market situation and will supply energy as needed, according to Bloomberg.
  • US senior envoy for energy security Hochstein said he expects gas prices to decline further towards USD 4/gallon and is confident there will be a few more steps in the coming weeks from OPEC in terms of oil supply, according to Reuters.
  • Energy Intel’s Bakr stated that we are in a situation where capacity is limited which is why the UAE and Saudi Arabia want to remain cautious about how and when it is used.
  • Top German energy regulator said natgas inventories are nearly 65% full but not enough to get through the winter without Russian gas, according to Bild am Sonntag.
  • Libya’s Oil Minister said Libya has resumed oil exports, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that the NOC said its board will not cooperate with any illegal dismissal decisions made by an outgoing administration.
  • South Africa’s largest fuel producer Sasol declared a force majeure on the supply of petroleum products due to delays in deliveries of crude to the Natref refinery, while the outage means all refineries in the country are shut, according to Bloomberg.
  • Iran set August Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 8.90/bbl, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold is bid as the USD pulls-bacl but is yet to breach USD 1725/oz in relatively limited European newsflow. Base metals bid after strong overnight performance.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: July NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 65, prior 67
  • 16:00: May Total Net TIC Flows, prior $1.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap


It could be a record week here in the UK with temperatures possibly hitting 40 degrees for the first time ever today or tomorrow! While the warm weather has been pleasant of late, I can’t wait until Wednesday when it cools down a bit. The coolest I was this weekend was going to a cinema on Saturday night with aircon to see Top Gun Maverick. However that was an incredibly stressful film. I’m not really a fan of action movies but that was edge of the seat stuff and very well done. Looking forward to the third part of the trilogy in 2058.

Back to 2022, and with the Fed now on their FOMC blackout period and a lighter US week for data (ex-housing), Q2 US earnings and all things European will be at the forefront of market attention this week with the highlight being the ECB’s likely first rate hike since 2011 on Thursday. Gas flows from Russia after maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline ends the same day will also be a big focus with the EU expected to detail energy contingency plans the day before. We’ll also get a decision from the BoJ on Thursday too. Global preliminary July PMIs for the US, Japan and key European economies will come out on Friday.

Going through some of these themes in more detail now. The ECB meeting on Thursday will likely deliver a +25bps hike, the first rate increase since 2011. Our European economists preview the upcoming meeting here. Their updated call retains the 2% terminal rate forecast but the hiking cycle is expected to be split. The first phase has hikes of +25bp, +50bp, +50bp and +25bp in July, September, October and December. By end-2022, the deposit rate will be 1%, helping to balance inflation and growth risks before the anticipated recession forces a pause. The second phase in H1 2024 is now expected to have four +25bp hikes and push rates into moderately above neutral territory. The ECB’s decision comes as Europe is grappling with significant concerns about the energy supply, a euro that has reached parity against the dollar for the first time since 2002, and inflation at an all-time high of 8.6%. If that’s not enough, it also comes alongside a recent widening in peripheral sovereign bond spreads and an Italian government possibly on the brink of collapse. We should know more on Wednesday when Draghi addresses lawmakers in Rome, however things are escalating quickly. The Five Star Movement (the second largest in the coalition) effectively abstained in a confidence motion in the Senate, triggering the current crisis. This weekend the party have met and don’t seem to be dialling down the rhetoric with leader Conte blaming Draghi for the impasse. Meanwhile the centre-right block are saying the coalition pact has been broken and that they won’t now rule in a coalition with Five Star. Probabilities of a snap election are certainly going up.

With this unfolding, the details of the anti-fragmentation tool will be highly sought after at the ECB meeting and our economics team reviews the key features of the new tool – size, target, conditionality and sterilisation method – in the same preview note mentioned above. The ECB will also release its Euro area bank lending survey tomorrow and the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Friday.

Another event that will keep investors on edge that day is the end of the Nord Stream pipeline’s scheduled maintenance period. Fears that Russia will keep the taps closed have roiled markets in recent weeks and the EU is expected to detail contingency plans on Wednesday. Although the NS1 maintenance period ends on Thursday, it’s possible that there will be ambiguity on supply for a while. Whatever Russia’s plans for supply through the autumn and winter, we may not fully see it in the next few days and weeks. Part of that might be politics and part of it may be operational as the turbine repair may take a while to be fully integrated, or at least that could be the claim. So we may get a few clues from Friday but it is unlikely we’ll know all the answers. See my one-sided devil’s advocate view in Thursday’s CoTD here on why it’s not in Putin’s interest to completely cut off the supply of gas.

Also on Thursday, the next policy decision from the BoJ will be due. Our chief Japan economist previews the meeting here. While he expects no change in the current monetary stance and forward guidance on policy rates, the BoJ’s Outlook Report is expected to show a downgrade in its growth forecast for FY2022 and an increase in its inflation forecast. The national CPI print will be due the next day and our economist expects core inflation (ex. fresh food) to climb to 2.2% YoY (+2.1% in May) and core-core inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) to 0.9% (+0.8% in May). Small fry in a western context but relatively strong for Japan.

Back to the data and US housing market indicators will be in focus this week, after the June CPI report showed the fastest monthly gains since 1986 for primary rents and 1990 for owners’ equivalent rent. In terms of data, we have July’s NAHB Housing Market Index (today), followed by June housing starts, building permits (tomorrow) and existing home sales (Wednesday).

In European data, the UK will be in focus with June CPI, RPI, PPI and May’s house price index due on Wednesday, preceded by labour market data tomorrow. Also released tomorrow will be July’s consumer confidence for the Eurozone, followed by a similar gauge and June retail sales for the UK on Friday.

In terms of earnings, after key US banks started reporting last week, we will get more insight into the state of the economy and consumer spending from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America (today) and American Express (Friday). Amid a mixed-bag performance for commodities in recent weeks, results from Halliburton (tomorrow), Baker Hughes (Wednesday), Schlumberger and NextEra (Friday) will be in focus. Earnings of consumer-oriented companies will be highly anticipated as well, including Johnson & Johnson (tomorrow), United Airlines, Tesla (Wednesday) and American Airlines (Thursday). In tech, key reporting corporates will include IBM (today), Netflix (tomorrow), ASML (Wednesday), SAP (Thursday) and Twitter (Friday). Other corporate earnings reports will feature Lockheed Martin (tomorrow), AT&T, Blackstone (Thursday) and Verizon (Friday).

Asian equity markets are higher at start of the week after gains on Wall Street on Friday. As I type, the Hang Seng (+2.45%) is leading the way followed by the Kospi (+1.80%), Shanghai Composite (+1.49%) and the CSI (+1.00%). Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed today for the Marine Day Holiday. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the DMs are pointing to additional gains with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.43%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.75%) and DAX (+0.37%) all climbing.

Early morning data showed that New Zealand’s consumer price index (+7.3% y/y) climbed to a 32-year high in the June 2022 quarter (v/s +7.1% expected) and speeding up from a +6.9% gain in the first quarter, mainly due to rising prices for construction and rentals for housing.

Looking back on another wild week in markets now. The highlight was inflation. The US CPI report came out on Wednesday, where headline yoy inflation bumped up to 9.1%, its highest since 1981. Indeed, each of the headline/core/MoM/YoY measures surpassed expectations. The following day showed producers were also feeling the heat, with final demand PPI measures beating expectations, with the crucial health care component portending an increase in upcoming PCE prints, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

The prints drove speculation the Fed would deliver a super-charged 100bp hike at the July meeting, but Fed officials threw water on that pricing at the end of the week, signaling a preference for a second consecutive 75bp hike. Nevertheless, the yield curve moved to its most inverted of the cycle, ending the week at -21.3bps, as expected Fed tightening was brought forward, and the resulting landing was expected to get that much harder. All told, 2yr yields increased +1.5bps (-1.2bps Friday) and 10yr yields fell -16.5bps (-4.4bps Friday). While stocks experienced a bump on the easier policy expectations (75 not 100) from Fed speakers at the end of the week, the S&P 500 climbing +1.92% Friday, the index fell the other four days and ended the week -0.93% lower. Tech underperformed with the NASDAQ falling -1.57%, staging a +1.79% recovery of its own on Friday.

US earnings season kicked off, with major US financials disappointing, as major money center banks signaled they would likely need to optimise their balance sheets to increase capital ratios over the near-term. A realisation that had JPMorgan temporarily suspending share buybacks.

Along with their own inflationary worries, Europe is also facing down political and energy crises. The attempted resignation of Prime Minister Draghi, and subsequent rejection by President Mattarella, injected yet more turmoil into European asset pricing. 10yr BTPs widened 19.4bps versus bunds (+6.5bps Friday), to 212bps, their widest levels since the ECB has floated a new anti-fragmentation tool. Heading into this week’s ECB meeting, pricing currently is at +29.0bps, a smidge higher than the week prior, so some chance the ECB will kick off the hiking cycle with a 50bp hike. 10yr bunds were 21.2bps lower (-4.5bps Friday), giving swirling risk on the continent. Speaking of European natural gas, prices managed to fall -8.23% (-8.84% Friday) following news that Canada would deliver the necessary turbine to restore gas flows from Russia back to the continent, but prices traded in a more than 20% range over the week, showing the anxiety that still dominates the situation. Elsewhere, brent crude fell below $100/bbl intraweek for the first time since mid-April, ultimately falling -5.50% on the week (+2.08% Friday) to $101.16/bbl as global growth fears grip markets.

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.04 PTS OR 1.55%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 548.46 OR 2.70%    /The Nikkei closed UP 145.08 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1/32%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7443    /Oil UP TO 99.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 103.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7443 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7501: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

Beijing panics as they try and halt mortgage boycott!!

Beijing Panics, Scrambles To Halt Mortgage Boycott By “Urging” Banks To Rush Developer Loans

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 01:50 PM

Last week, when we warned that China finds itself on the edge of a violent debt jubilee as millions of “disgruntled” homebuyers have suddenly refused to pay their mortgages (on unfinished construction projects, mind you, so they are completely in their right), we said that the government is likely to step in sooner rather than later as the mortgage boycotts start to undermine social stability. Either banks have to chip in to provide cheap funds for developers to complete projects, or they have to allow homebuyers to delay their payments. Neither is an attractive option.”

This was correct, and while Beijing has not yet gone “balls to the wall” on injecting liquidity so to speak – as the PBOC has been far more cautious about stimulating the economy now that Chinese debt levels are the highest in known history – it is taking the first steps in that direction with Bloomberg reporting overnight that Chinese regulators “sought to defuse a growing consumer boycott of mortgage payments by urging banks to increase lending to developers so they can complete unfinished housing projects”, in the process sending China’s bank and property stocks higher and restarting China’s massive debt-fueled growth dynamo, which however always blows up spectacularly a few years later.

The guidance from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission was issued in response to the boycotts and is aimed at expediting the delivery of homes to buyers, a newspaper published by the watchdog reported Sunday, citing an unidentified senior official at the agency.

According to the weekend report, the CBIRC will strengthen its coordination and cooperation with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and the central bank to support local governments to help ensure housing project delivery, the official was cited as saying: “While following market principles and the rule of law, (banks) should also actively assume social responsibility, and do whatever possible to ensure home deliveries,” the official said.

Translation: courtesy of debt, China’s housing risk is being quietly shifted away from developers and on to the state-owned banking system. This happens as China is scrambling to contain the protests that have flared up at 100 housing projects across 50 cities, threatening to spread the real estate crisis to the banking system and spark a grassroots debt-payment moratorium that would crush China’s $50+ trillion financial system which is more than double the size of the US.

Regulators met with banks last week to discuss the boycotts, while state media have cited analysts warning that the stability of the financial system could be hurt if more home buyers follow suit.

“The core issue here is for the government to step in quickly to boost confidence, to solve the problem at hand, and also provide more clarity to the market and investors on how this downturn in the property sector is going to be resolved,” Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in an interview on Bloomberg Televison.

And of course it is, the core question, however, is how does China does this without overstimulating the markets and without causing a fresh lurch into bubble territory.

Of course, with speculation of more stimulus on deck, bank stocks predictably rallied on the report, as the CSI 300 Bank Index jumped 1.4%, its first gain in nine sessions. An index of property shares rose 2.9% Monday, reversing a 7.7% plunge in shares of Chinese lenders last week, the biggest decline in more than four years. The news of Beijing’s rushed response also helped pushed US equity futures higher overnight.

Worse, in a housing “doom loop”, the growing number of boycotts over project delays also pose a risk to the broader housing market by keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines. The market had seen signs of stabilizing in recent months, with some analysts calling for a turnaround in the second half of the year, but that now appears in jeopardy. Last week, China reported that output in the real estate industry, a key economic contributor, contracted 7% in the second quarter from a year ago. It remained the biggest drag on the world’s second-largest economy among all sectors, and performed worse than the first quarter of 2022.

“In a worst-case scenario, the issue could trigger systemic financial risk and social instability, given housing’s role as a bedrock of the broader financial system,” Gabriel Wildau, a managing director at global business advisory firm Teneo, wrote in a note July 15. “But our base case is that regulators will succeed in containing the crisis by strong-arming state-owned banks into supporting troubled developers so that they can complete stalled projects.”

In separate comments on the weekend, Bloomberg reports that China’s central bank also said it will step up the implementation of its prudent monetary policy to provide stronger economic support. The economy is facing “certain downward pressures” due to the pandemic and external factors even as domestic inflation is relatively low, Governor Yi Gang said in a meeting of G-20 central bank governors and finance ministers.

Besides assisting with easier loan injections, the China Banking and Insurance News also reported Sunday that regulators had urged banks to support mergers and acquisitions by developers to help stabilize the real estate market. Banks were also asked to improve communications with home buyers and to protect their legal rights, the report said.

China’s commercial banks that have disclosed their overdue loans on unfinished homes have so far detailed more than 2.11 billion yuan ($312 million) of credit at risk. GF Securities Co. expects that as much as 2 trillion yuan of mortgages could be impacted by the boycott.

While the lenders have called the situation controllable, concerns have persisted given the importance of the sector. The real estate industry, when including construction, sales and related services, accounts for about a fifth of China’s gross domestic product. An estimated 70% of the country’s middle-class wealth is also tied up in property. According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, the Chinese property markets is the largest single asset in the entire world.

No wonder it is in the establishment’s best interest to prevent this biggest asset bubble from deflating.

end

CHINA

Mish Shedlock outlines why efforts to halt China’s real estate crash will only lead to further collapse

(MishShedlock/Mishtalk)

Efforts To Halt China’s Real Estate Crash Will Only Lead To Further Collapse

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 09:14 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Local Government Funding Vehicles are offering very high interest rates to fund infrastructure. The interest rates are not sustainable.

Tweet Thread by Michael Pettis

  • Very good article on a very worrying (but predictable) trend: “LGFVs are finding it difficult to borrow from banks and institutional bond investors, and are increasingly being forced to offer retail investors high interest rates to raise cash.”
  • Not only is it dangerous to push this very risky type of borrowing down to retail investors, but the rates are so high that even if the money were used to fund very productive infrastructure projects (and it isn’t), local governments won’t be able to service the debt.
  • But before criticizing local governments for dangerous behavior that will almost certainly come to a very bad end, spare a thought for the impossible position they find themselves in.
  • Revenues are way down (and unlikely to recover), COVID-related expenses are up, and they are tasked with delivering enough economic activity to generate unrealistically high GDP growth numbers. To make matters worse, Beijing has imposed debt restrictions on them.
  • So what else can they do? As I have long argued, China’s rising debt burden is the inexorable consequence of a growth strategy that requires GDP growth rates far in excess of what China’s very unbalanced economy can sustainably deliver.
  • A soaring debt burden and increasingly risky debt structures are not bad outcomes caused by dishonest and incompetent individuals. They are fundamental to the way the growth model works.

Real Estate Crumbling

Xi Reaffirms Growth Target That Analysts Say Is Out of Reach

Bloomberg reports Xi Reaffirms Growth Target That Analysts Say Is Out of Reach

Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to meet economic targets for the year even as the government’s zero tolerance approach to combating Covid outbreaks and a weak housing market put the growth goal further out of reach.  

“This is the first comment from senior policy makers on ‘striving to achieve full year economic targets’ in recent months,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists including Maggie Wei wrote in a note. “While growth recovery appears to have accelerated in June, barring dramatically more policy easing, we think the ‘around 5.5% GDP growth’ target remains extremely challenging this year.” 

China Increases Subsidies and Fiscal Stimulus to Boost Consumption

Also consider my May 30, post China Increases Subsidies and Fiscal Stimulus to Boost Consumption

In contrast to the rest of the world, China and Japan are in stimulus mode.

Debt Implosion

Housing has gone bust but China’s president, Xi Jinping, has mandated a 5.5% growth target that will not be met.

Expect another debt implosion in China. This one will be fueled by interest rates so high that local governments will be unable to service the debt.

end

China Has Dumped Over $100 Billion Of US Treasuries In The Last 6 Months

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 04:18 PM

The latest data of Treasury International Capital flows (from May) shows a 5th straight month of equity selling:

  • Long-term Treasurys: +99.864BN, vs -$1.153BN sold in April
  • Agencies +37.283BN, similar to the $36.714BN in April
  • Corporate bonds bought $4.462BN, down from $22.5BN in April
  • Equities sold $9.15BN, down from $7.04BN in April and the 5th consecutive month of stock sales by foreigners, longest stretch since late 2018!

Foreign official institutions sold $34.1 billion in USTs in May…

BUT… foreign private investors (not central banks or reserve managers) bought a record $133.94 billion in May…

Most notably, China’s holding of US Treasuries fell below $1 trillion for the first time since June 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 6th straight month of selling by China for a total of $100 billion over that period.

China was the biggest seller in May (the latest month available) followed by Ireland and Canada.

Japan remains the largest holder of USTs with $1.2 trillion (though it too saw a decrease in May of $5.7 billion).

The Cayman Islands (proxy for hedge funds) saw a $1.7 billion increase in UST holdings to $293.3 billion.

Switzerland bought most in May ($22.5 billion) along with UK and Belgium.

Finally, we note the de-dollarization trend continues (though there was some selling of gold reserves in the latest period)…

As UST holdings drop to their lowest since Oct 2020.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU

We have already reached the “doomsday” scenario as Russia giant has declared force majeure to one major European customer. This is huge news!!

(zerohedge)

Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 08:51 AM

Already days before the July 22 European “Doomsday” when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end – but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its “good functioning” due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions – the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, “Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters.” The letter is reportedly dated July 14.

The letter invoked “extraordinary” circumstances outside the company’s control, Reuters continues, citing a source saying the customer in question is Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

As we’ve been detailing, German authorities have of late taken unprecedented steps in anticipation of an enduring Russian gas halt, essentially dimming the lights across the country – which has included everything from limiting hot water, to shutting down swimming pools, to quite literally dimming city street lights as it entered “alarm” stage over dwindling supply.

It seems this letter declaring its legal release from supply obligations going back to June 14 is in preparation for definitive action on July 22, namely that the pipeline’s operations are likely to remain suspended.

In an analysis from earlier this month (available to pro subscribers), UBS economists laid out a detailed vision of what they see happening if Russia halts gas deliveries to Europe: It would reduce corporate earnings by more than 15%. The market selloff would exceed 20% in the Stoxx 600 and the euro would drop to 90 cents. The rush for safe assets would drive benchmark German bund yields to 0%, they wrote.

“We stress that these projections should be seen as rough approximations and by no means as a worse-case scenario,” wrote Arend Kapteyn, chief economist at UBS.

“We could easily conceive economic disruptions that lead to more negative growth outcomes.”

To be sure, markets are already pricing in some of the damage starting with the euro which starting this month traded at a fresh two-decade low and touched parity with the dollar, something it hasn’t done since 2002.

Developing…

ITALY

A must read as Tom Luongo describes what is happening in Italy as Draghi is on his way out of being PM of Italy

(Tom Luongo)

Davos Loses Big Time… Draghi On the Way Out In Italy

SATURDAY, JUL 16, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is out. He tendered his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella. Mattarella is refusing for now. There will be another confidence vote. It shouldn’t matter.

As is always the case with Italian politics, the story is always far murkier than the headline.

The headline is Five Star Movement (M5S) leader Giuseppe Conte could no longer back Draghi’s government because he’s doing nothing to deal with spiraling food and energy costs in Italy. Without M5S support it will be difficult, at best, for Draghi to maintain power.

The parties which ‘won’ the last election are now polling 3rd and 4th. M5S is now polling at just 12%. Lega just 15%.

It is Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy that lead the polls. And we are, at most nine months away from Italian elections.

I’d say nine weeks is more likely.

So, M5S and Conte making this move now is not in their favor. This implies something far deeper than what it looks like on the surface.

It implies strongly that there is an urgency to removing Draghi that trumps basic power politics, that the future of Italy itself may be what’s at stake.

And I think I might know why.

Italy is woefully unprepared for this winter as gas storage is well below levels necessary to get through the winter. The problem is Italy and the EU have been lying publicly about it. According to EU data Italy’s gas system is over 65% full, with over 126 TWhrs available, in line with other major nations, like Germany.

But looking at the actual numbers, for this year, which have been fiendishly difficult to get a hold of in recent weeks (I wonder why), Italy’s Stogit, the main gas storage company in Italy, is only 53% full and that jumped significantly in recent days (link to the data from today 7/14/2022).

Compare the run rate of gas storage filling (see chart below) from today’s data versus that of 6/17/2022 where storage stood at just 37% capacity and you’ll see exactly what I’m getting at.

So, what happened around then that all of a sudden caused a shift in the gas storage rate for Italy? M5S began its campaign against Draghi’s handling of Ukraine and a general strike was called among transport workers for June 17th.

After Draghi publicly talked about settling the Ukraine conflict with Russia, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi DiMaio (former PM and leader of M5S) openly criticized Draghi’s “immaturity” when dealing with Russia.

Now, this is where things get really murky. Remember that it was Conte who was Angela Merkel’s bagman back when he was Prime Minister to derail any potential Italian exit from the European Union, or, at least the euro. Remember also, that it was Lega’s Matteo Salvini who was openly calling for Italy to ditch the euro.

Salvini was then put under pressure from a bogus Soros-led lawsuit against him when he was Interior Minister over his handling of a boatload of refugees.

Conte staged a coup against DiMaio while they both threw Salvini under the bus when he made his move in August 2019 to take down the government and force new elections, which, at the time, Lega would have won in a walk, having more than 35% national support.

Since then Salvini has cucked out to nearly every bad move made by Italy, likely because it didn’t matter what he did.

In the end these maneuvers by the Italian political elites neutered the upstart M5S and Lega and eventually they brought Draghi in as a kind of politically-neutral caretaker Prime Minister to get the country through to the next election, which is scheduled for the first part of 2023.

Davos needed Draghi in charge in Italy to shepherd the country’s liquidation, which is where the gas storage crisis fits in. Davos moved quickly to put all of their people in place around Europe after installing Fungal Joe Biden as president in the US. Draghi being in charge in Italy meant that Davos was in charge of both sides of the Italian-American relationship.

And I’m sure they all expected they had everything they needed to ‘run the table’ geopolitically. Draghi would implement vaccine mandates, Green Passes and degrade further Italy’s competitiveness at every turn.

The euro would remain strong, Eurobond yields low, the ECB’s reputation untarnished and the Fed captive to the Democrats’ bonkers spending plans. That was the state of play when Draghi was installed in March 2021.

All that was needed was for the US to roll over and print/spend themselves into oblivion with the Democrats fully in power in the US. The Fed would be forced to monetize another 6+ trillion in debt the world didn’t want and the US would collapse, allowing capital to flow into Europe as opposed to fleeing it.

We all know how that turned out.

As I’ve been banging my shoe on the table about for the past year, the Fed, led by Jerome Powell, has been steadily undermining the Eurocrats’ agenda with tight dollar policy which started this massive bull run in the US dollar last June when he raised the payout rate on Reverse Repos to 0.05% above the Fed Funds Rate.

At the same time, Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) blocked the domestic agenda by refusing both the Infrastructure and Build Back Better bills in the Senate. Pelosi and Schumer were stymied at every turn and couldn’t get anything past those two.

As I said then, those two only stand tall because powerful people stood behind them. People even Davos couldn’t blackmail.

That’s a short list, FYI. It starts with the Fed and it ends with international capital not ‘down with the Comintern.’ For a full list, just look at those unwilling to sanction Russia for throwing the first punch in Ukraine.

Once that agenda collapsed and Powell’s second term as FOMC Chair secured, that set the stage for what’s happening now.

Because Draghi’s resignation begs a LOT of questions. Why would Conte, formerly Merkel’s stooge, pull out of the coalition if Davos was still in control of the situation in Italy? What changed that forced this?

I outlined the lying about the gas storage and Draghi’s wavering on Ukraine above, but is that enough? Last week Davos got a couple of scalps — Boris Johnson and Shinzo Abe. Both of them were aligned with the US, not Europe.

Europe wants to back the War against Russia without looking like they back the War against Russia. Typically European, they want to have their foreign policy cake provided by US money and eat it too.

They are going after Olaf Scholz to put the Greens formally in charge in Germany and betray what’s left of the German middle class.

You know I believe the Fed is working to re-establish US primacy over its own monetary and fiscal policy, which tracks with the way Powell has raised rates and caused heart attacks within the Eurodollar system.

Moreover, when you look at the failures of the Biden administration to get any traction globally to isolate Russia you see a Davos agenda that is failing completely.

It then tracks that weak newcomers to the Italian Swamp, like those in M5S, may have finally been given enough assurance that the situation has changed. Yesterday’s 9.1% CPI print was enough to really begin breaking things.

The Anti-Davos factions within the US are strong enough now for them to throw off the Davos yoke, as represented by Draghi, Mattarella and former PM Matteo Renzi, and begin Italy’s bid for independence.

The Fed responds to Davos taking out Johnson by taking out Draghi and putting the EU on a path to disintegration. The euro broke parity with the US dollar today on this news. Now the ECB is staring at a vortex of higher rates as the Fed is clear to raise another 75-100 bps in two weeks.

What’s Lagarde going to do? Raise rates? If so then buh-bye Italy and hello Euro-zone banking crisis.

Given how hated Draghi is in Italy, there is no way for him to continue given what we know now. Any further resistance by Mattarella will ensure the lot of them get lynched publicly.

The mood in Italy is that bad.

The likely story is that Draghi was looking the other way while Germany openly siphoned off gas meant for Italy for itself to ensure that Italy starved and froze this winter.

So, what the TL;DR?

The EU is in serious trouble. With Draghi’s fall, there is no stopping a collapse of Italian debt prices as either Davos goes for broke and nationalizes Italy’s gold reserves or Meloni comes to power with the backing of the US banks and DoD and takes the country out of the euro, if not the EU itself.

The betrayal has been total. There’s no bringing Italian loyalty to the EU back after it’s reveal as yet another shitty German attempt to take over Europe.

As I’ve described in previous articles, with Russia on one side and the US Fed/Banking Interests on the other the stress on the Euro-zone and the European Central Bank has never been higher.

The ECB has no answers and has as much admitted they don’t. All they can do is keep funding Italy until the US mid-terms where Davos hopes they can save the Democrats from a complete wipe out. That was also the plan.

Now Conte and M5S have blown up those plans as well.

There is a real fight for primacy over the West’s power going on. Will it be led by Eurocrat commies or Anglo corporate fascists. There are no ‘good guys’ here. They are all terrible.

This takedown of Draghi, the ultimate Davos insider, is one of the most important turning points in 2022. It signals to me that they have now lost control over the single most important country in Europe. It is the fulcrum on which the future of humanity may ultimately rest.

Given how close we are to Davos manipulating the US and the world into a global holy war for energy, as outlined by Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Three Lighthouses speech recently, I’d say I’m on the side that is working to avoid that.

20 million SPF sun block hasn’t been invented yet. I’m sure I would have seen that in Wired. For that reason alone you should probably cheer for the ignominious end of the public life of Mario Draghi.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you hate sunblock

END

FRANCE

The extreme heat has force France to cut its nuclear power generation

(zerohedge)

France Cuts Nuclear Power Generation Amid Record-Breaking Heatwave

SATURDAY, JUL 16, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Europe’s ongoing heat wave will continue through the end of the month, producing record-breaking temperatures across the continent. The heatwave is beginning to curb nuclear power production in France, which could have widespread effects across European markets.

Bloomberg reports French utility Electricite de France SA (EDF) was forced to reduce power generation at three power plants this week, two on the Rhone River and another on the Garonne, after water temperatures from each respective river were too hot to circulate through condensers and discharge back into waterways because superheated water would cause environmental harm.

Restrictions on the Rhone will cut output at the Saint-Alban plant from July 20, but the facility will maintain minimum production of at least 1,300 megawatts for grid operational reasons, EDF said in a filing. That’s half its usual capacity. The Tricastin and Blayais plants will each operate at a minimum level of 1,800 megawatts from July 17.

The Saint-Alban and Blayais facilities, as well as the Golfech plant, have received temporary waivers of water-discharge rules to keep them in operation during the heatwave, Les Echos reported, without giving specifics on output. The Garonne River reached 28 degrees Celsius on Thursday. -Bloomberg 

France’s nuclear reactor capacity was around 46% on Friday, down from 47% on Wednesday, according to data via grid operator RTE. 

The implications of slumping nuclear power output for France’s atomic fleet, the largest in Europe and producing 25% of all power on the continent, have been soaring electricity prices.

French week-ahead power soared 18% to 500 euros a megawatt-hour since last week — the highest weekly close on record. 

Ahead of summer, half of France’s 56 reactors were offline due to routine maintenance. The outage continues to expand due to heatwaves, and water restrictions on rivers have sent nuclear power output to the lowest seasonal level in at least a decade. 

According to the French national meteorological service Météo-France, next Monday could be one of the hottest days on record, especially in the southern part of the country. 

A combination of heatwaves and maintenance is crippling France’s atomic fleet and comes at a time when the continent suffers from an energy crisis. 

END

GERMANY//GAS

Many warnings concerning the blockage of Russian/Gazprom gas

(zerohedge)

“We’re Facing The Biggest Crisis The Country Has Ever Had”: President Of German Employers’ Association Warns Of Historic Crisis Over Russian Gas Cut

SATURDAY, JUL 16, 2022 – 09:20 AM

By John Cody of Remix News

Germany is facing an unprecedented crisis due to a potential Russian gas cut that will erase the prosperity Germans have grown accustomed to, warned Rainer Dulger, head of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations.

“We are facing the biggest crisis the country has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years,” Dulger told the Süddeutsche Zeitung regarding the consequences of a gas shortage to everyone.

While many are urging more government intervention to help prop up the German economy, Dulger argues that in general, the fewer the interventions, the better. He says that when it comes to the economy, private businesses always do better than the government.

However, he does believe certain measures need to be implemented to provide support for people in increasingly stressed economic situations.

“More net earnings from the gross amount must now arrive into every citizen’s account,” he claimed, emphasizing the importance of not reducing the net income of the citizens and ensuring the fair redistribution of profits generated during the crisis.

Dulger is not the only one warning of a crisis in Germany. Economy Minister Robert Habeck warns of a “catastrophic winter” ahead over Russian gas cut fears.

According to him, Germany will face a “crucial test that we haven’t faced for a long time.”

Other experts are predicting mass bankruptcies, inflation, and energy rationing that will send “shockwaves” through the German economy.

The Bavarian Business Association (VBW) warned that as many as 5.6 million jobs across Germany could be lost in the case of a gas supply stoppage from Russia.

According to the association’s calculations, a German boycott of Russian gas could also reduce the country’s economic output by 12.7 percent, with immediate abandonment of the raw material hitting the glass, iron, and steel industries particularly hard; losses in these sectors would be almost 50 percent.

Dulger sees the significant cause of the current situation as the lack of ability to be self-sufficient. For too long, Germany had disregarded something that former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt warned about in the 1970s.

When deliveries of gas to Russia began at the time, Schmidt said: “We can do it, but we must not depend on Russian gas for more than 30 percent.”

end

GERMANY

Now the Rhine water levels are plummeting leading to supply issues.  The Rhine is the major artery supplying goods to Switzerland and other parts of Europe and Germany

(zerohedge)

Germany’s Energy Crisis About To Get Even Worse As Rhine Water Levels Plummet

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 06:55 AM

What has already been a year from hell for Germany, which is suffering energy hyperinflation as a result of Europe’s sanctions on Russia, and which is “facing the biggest crisis the country has every had” according to the president of the German employers association, is about to get even worse as the declining water level of the Rhine river, which has historically been a key infrastructure transit artery across Germany, continues to fall and as it does, the flow of commodities to inland Europe is starting to buckle threatening to make an already historic crisis even worse.

The alarming lack of water is contributing to oil product supply problems in Switzerland and preventing at least two power plants in Germany from getting all the coal they need, and what’s more, the continent’s sizzling summer temperatures are forecast to climb even higher in the coming week, leading to even lower water levels.

The 800-mile (1,288-kilometer) Rhine river runs from Switzerland all the way to the North Sea and is used to transport tens of millions of tons of commodities through inland Europe. But with water levels at their lowest for the time of year in 15 years, there is a limit how much fuel, coal and other vital cargo that barges can carry up and down the river.

Low water levels on the Rhine River mean that barges hauling middle distillate-type oil products – typically gasoil/diesel – past Kaub in Germany, are limited to loading about 30% of capacity, according to maritime brokerage services firm Riverlake.

A barge loading in the energy hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (or ARA), which can haul 2.5k tons when fully laden, is restricted to taking on about 800 tons if sailing to destinations beyond Kaub. As shown below, the water level at Kaub has fallen in recent days and is at its lowest on a seasonal basis since at least 2007. According to Riverlake, further decreases in loading volumes for barges hauling middle distillates from ARA to inland destinations beyond Kaub are expected in coming days.

This – coupled with capacity issues on German railways – has meant that Switzerland is struggling with supplies of oil products, mainly diesel/heating oil, according to Avenergy Suisse, the landlocked country’s organization for fuel importers.

Low Rhine water level combined with capacity problems on German railways are the reasons, managing director Roland Bilang told Bloomberg, adding that supply problems mainly concern diesel/heating oil.

“It has happened from time to time in the past that temporarily not enough mineral oil products could be transported to Switzerland and therefore the compulsory stocks had to be tapped.” Biland recommends private households fill their heating oil tanks early.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that power plants at Mannheim and Karlsruhe in Germany, operated by Grosskraftwerk Mannheim and EnBW, have been struggling to source coal because of the shallow water – just as the country frets that Russia won’t restart flows on a key gas pipeline. The companies said their generation operations aren’t currently affected.

Because of the tight coal market and low Rhine levels making it hard to deliver the fuel, only 65% of Germany’s coal capacity will be available in coming months, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Sabrina Kernbichler. This is bad news for a country whose biggest energy utilities are starting to drain natgas reserves as a result of the halt in Nord Stream 1 shipments, jeopardising millions of Germans with freezing should the country fail to restock fully ahead of the winter.

Germany also imports oil products up the Rhine, including fuel and heating oil. There’s currently no shortage of gasoline or diesel in the country, according to Herbert Rabl, spokesman for Tankstellen-Interessenverband e.V., which represents fuel station leaseholders and owners in Germany.

Shell – which owns the Wesseling and Godorf refineries along the Rhine – is monitoring the situation, according to a spokesperson.

HOLLAND

My goodness:  this is total nonsense

A Dutch dairy farmer faces the prospect of having to cull 95% of his cows due to new nitrogen policy.

(EpochTimes)

Dutch Dairy Farmer Faces Having To Cull 95% Of His Cows

SUNDAY, JUL 17, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

In the Netherlands, dairy farmer Martin Neppelenbroek is near the end of the line.Dutch dairy farmer Martin Neppelenbroek at his farm in Lemelerveld, The Netherlands, on July 7, 2022. (The Epoch Times)

New environmental regulations will require him to slash his livestock numbers by 95 percent. He thinks he will have to sell his family farm.

I can’t run a farm on 5 percent. For me, it’s over and done with,” he said in a July 7 interview with The Epoch Times.

“In view of the regulations, I can’t sell it to anybody. Nobody wants to buy it. [But] the government wants to buy it. And that’s why they [have] those regulations, I think.”A cow at Martin Neppelenbroek’s farm in Lemelerveld, The Netherlands, on July 7, 2022. (The Epoch Times)

Neppelenbroek made the remarks while speaking with Roman Balmakov, host of “Facts Matter” on EpochTV, during Balmakov’s recent trip to the Netherlands.

Neppelenbroek pointed out that not all farmers are required to get rid of so many of their cattle.

People living further from areas protected under Natura 2000, a European Union (EU) agreement for species and habitat preservation, can own more cattle.

That’s because the Dutch government’s regulations on nitrogen oxides and ammonia emissions are tied to sites’ proximity to those protected areas.Dutch dairy farmer Martin Neppelenbroek at his farm in Lemelerveld, The Netherlands, on July 7, 2022. (The Epoch Times)

Farmers, truckers, and others across the Netherlands have led nationwide protests against that vision, partly spurred by a June 10 national and area-specific plan for curtailing nitrogen greenhouse gas emissions.

There’s a sword of Damocles hanging over them: the possibility of compulsory seizure of property by the government.

NOS Nieuws reported that Christianne van der Wal, the country’s minister of nature and nitrogen policy, has not ruled out expropriating land from uncooperative farmers.

According to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service, the Dutch government has said its approach means “there is not a future for all [Dutch] farmers.”

For now, Neppelenbroek’s 70-acre-plus property is home to roughly 130 milking cows. It’s been in his family for half a century.

“I’m the second generation,” he said, adding that many farms in the Netherlands have been in families for much longer.

The Netherlands punches well above its weight in agriculture. The small, coastal country is one of the world’s top 10 food exporters.

“When you have not a lot of space, you have to use it as effectively as possible,” Neppelenbroek said.

“It’s a delta, and the climate is not too hot, not too cold. It’s an ideal place to grow.”

Cows, Neppelenbroek acknowledged, produce lots of ammonia through their bodily waste.

Read more here…

end

For your interest..

(EpochTimes)

Dutch Nitrogen Scientist Questions Basis Of Government Climate Mandates

SUNDAY, JUL 17, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Jaap Hanekamp is skeptical of the received wisdom in science. He won’t stop asking a simple question: “But, is this true?”Dutch farmers are protesting against what they see as harsh measures to cut down nitrogen emissions. (PMVfoto/Shutterstock)

When it comes to the Dutch government’s calculations of ammonia and nitrogen oxide deposition—the basis of climate mandates that would slash livestock numbers and put many farmers out of work—Hanekamp is especially critical of “the science.”

He thinks it relies on vague definitions, excessive deference to expert judgment, and a narrow focus on costs rather than both costs and benefits.

We now treat farmers as polluters, end of story, which is a very strange perspective,” he said.

Hanekamp, an associate professor of chemistry at University College Roosevelt in the Netherlands, made the comments in an interview with Roman Balmakov, host of EpochTV’s “Facts Matter.”

A 2019 Dutch court decision that hindered the construction of livestock facilities triggered an earlier round of protests by farmers.

Science article on the protests described some of the harms attributed to nitrogen emissions: “In 118 of 162 Dutch nature reserves, nitrogen deposits now exceed ecological risk thresholds by an average of 50 percent.

“In dunes, bogs, and heathlands, home to species adapted to a lack of nitrogen, plant diversity has decreased as nitrogen-loving grasses, shrubs, and trees move in.”

Nitrogen chemicals are nutrients—you need them for growing plants,” Hanekamp said.

Hanekamp believes the government has focused on nitrogen almost to the exclusion of other factors that affect nature, such as the location of groundwater relative to the surface.

He also questions whether the ecosystem shifts prompted by greater nitrogen deposition can be properly defined as “damage.”

“Is a change in biodiversity bad in itself, or is it just change?” he asked.

He pointed out that the Netherlands is far from pristine wilderness. Much of the land is artificial, reclaimed from the sea over recent centuries thanks to the ingenuity of man.

Hanekamp has scrutinized a term used in government ecological research: “nitrogen critical load.”

Below its “critical load,” a substance is not thought to pose a significant environmental threat.

In a recent paper, Hanekamp and coauthor William Briggs described some problems with the evidence used to define nitrogen critical loads in the Netherlands.

For one thing, they do not believe the definitions of nitrogen critical loads are sufficiently precise. In addition, they think there have not been enough large-scale, long-term studies on nitrogen deposition.

Hanekamp stressed that models can be useful—taking 100,000 measurements across the country wouldn’t exactly be easy or cheap.

Yet modeling uncertainty makes it challenging to translate activity on a particular farm to exact patterns of nitrogen flow.

That hasn’t stopped the Dutch nitrogen minister from unveiling detailed, area-specific nitrogen reduction targets in June of this year.

The release was the impetus for the latest round of protests by farmers.

One dairy farmer interviewed by The Epoch Times would have to cut his livestock numbers by 95 percent—so much that he expects he will need to shut down.

Read more here…

end

EUROPE/HEAT

Hot weather continues to blast Europe

(zerohedge)

“Heat Apocalypse” Blasts Europe As UK And France Brace For Hottest Days On Record

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 09:33 AM

A dangerous heatwave that has sparked wildfires across southwest Europe is set to push the mercury to new records in the U.K. and France early this week.

The U.K. Met Office forecasts 104°F (40°C) temperatures could be recorded Monday. The prior record stands at 101.66°F (38.7°C), set in 2019. Britain declared a widespread “red” heat warning days ago for the first time in history. 

Here are the latest temps across the UK:

The top ten hottest days in the UK have been recorded in the last three decades.

Extreme heat is disrupting travel across the U.K. Temporary speed restrictions were placed across London’s tube system, with transportation officials worried hot rails could buckle. 

Rufus Cameron, 26, told NYTimes that he’s headed for his parent’s house in southern England because “his flat is hot, outside it’s hot, it’s all a bit much.”

“In England, we have no idea how to deal with this kind of heat,” Cameron said, adding he’s worried about potential delays to the national rail system because of speed restrictions. 

“But what can we do with the infrastructure that we have in England,” he added. “It’s not built for this.” 

A recent report via Britain’s Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy found only 5% of homes in England have air conditioning units installed. With temperatures expected to hit records today, this could increase the risks of elevated heat-related illnesses, including heat stroke and exhaustion. 

The extreme heat is also punishing France. Massive wildfires are spreading across southern France, parts of Spain, and Portugal, with more than ten thousand evacuated in France alone. 

French firefighters cleared a three-mile-long and 130-foot-wide stretch of land in southwestern France to control a wildfire from spreading. 

Tour de France cyclists were given the day off after above-average temperatures were considered too dangerous for the Rodez to Carcassonne stretch, in southwestern France, on Monday. Tour organizers had to spray some areas of roads with water to prevent melting asphalt from disrupting the race. 

The heat wave is also proving disruptive to French utility Electricite de France SA’s nuclear power generation, which could have widespread effects across European power markets. 

… and more bad news for power markets. 

Meteorologists described the climate situation in Europe as “an apocalypse of heat.”  

Extreme heat can be deadly. More than 1,000 heat-related deaths have been reported in Spain and Portugal in recent days. 

The heatwave is the second to scorch parts of southwest Europe this month. The latest developed in northwest Africa, producing a heat dome and an area of low pressure west of Iberia, feeding heat into the continent. 

.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Court blocks Biden administration from punishing unvaccinated air force members

(EpochTimes)

Court Blocks Biden Admin From Punishing Unvaccinated Air Force Members

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Beth Brejle and Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

A federal district court in Ohio has temporarily blocked the Biden administration from enforcing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate on thousands of U.S. Air Force service members who remain unvaccinated after having opposed the shot on religious grounds but have had their religious exemption applications denied.

U.S. District Court Judge Matthew McFarland, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump in late 2019, issued a temporary restraining order filed on Thursday preventing the Biden administration from taking any action for at least 14 days against any Air Force member who opted not to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

The judge’s ruling also grants the case “class status,” which means the temporary restraining order will grant relief to all members of the Air Force who submitted a religious accommodation request from the COVID-19 vaccine mandate from Sept. 1, 2021, to the present, and were confirmed via the Air Force Chaplains as having a sincerely held religious belief, but had their requests denied or not yet acted upon. Plaintiffs had contended that such a class would include over 12,000 airmen.

The action stems from a case filed in February 2022 challenging the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Plaintiffs comprise 18 active-duty members of the Air Force serving at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio; Hurlburt Field in Florida; Randolph Air Force Base in Texas; and Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Georgia, plus all similarly affected members.

“The court has already granted a preliminary injunction to our 18 original plaintiffs,” an attorney in the case, Tom Bruns of Siri & Glimstad law firm, told The Epoch Times. “The court has now granted a class certification—and that’s kind of the historic moment—Air Force-wide, service-wide, it covers every member of the Air Force. And now he’s saying, ‘Why shouldn’t I grant the preliminary injunction to all those folks?’”

McFarland wrote in his order (pdf) in granting the class status: 

“They face separation from the Air Force and other disciplinary measures. A single injunction would provide relief to the entire class. Indeed, the main purpose of a [lawsuit class] is to provide relief through a single injunction or declaratory judgment. Because Defendants have uniformly maintained a policy of overriding Airmen’s religious objections to the COVID-19 vaccine, they have acted ‘on grounds that apply generally to the class.’

“Moreover, the class definition requires that a Chaplain certify that the airman’s religious beliefs are sincerely held. Finally, a single injunction would provide the proposed class with the relief they seek from the harm they stand to suffer.”

McFarland gave Air Force officials until July 21 to file a response “identifying why this Court should not grant a class-wide preliminary injunction.” He also gave plaintiffs an opportunity to then file a response by July 25.

According to data from the Air Force, as of July 11, over 6,800 service members have been denied religious accommodation requests. Only 104 have had their applications approved. Meanwhile, 834 members have been “administratively separated” by the force. According to the figures, 97.1 percent of the Air Force has been fully vaccinated, and 0.1 percent has been partially vaccinated.

Nurse and Army veteran Renee Langone administers a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to U.S. Air Force (active duty reservist) Dr. Pei-Chun McGregor at the West Roxbury VA Medical Center in Boston, Mass., on Dec. 23, 2020. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

McFarland’s order came in the nick of time for some airmen. Many have received notices in the last week, with a date of their final day, an airman at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska told The Epoch Times.

The Air Force wanted the airmen’s cases heard individually, but in his decision allowing class status, McFarland noted how the Air Force did not consider each case individually when denying religious accommodation requests.

Read more here…

end

Natural Immunity From Omicron Strong Against Virus Subvariants: Study

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 02:50 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The protection afforded by surviving COVID-19 was strong against the latest virus subvariants, including the one currently dominant in the United States, scientists in Qatar found.

People who were infected with Omicron, a variant of SARS-CoV-2, had 76.1 percent protection against symptomatic reinfection from BA.4 and BA.5 and 80 percent shielding from any reinfection, regardless of symptoms, according to the preprint study.

SARS-CoV-2, also known as the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, causes COVID-19.

Omicron became the dominant virus strain in many countries in late 2021. Since then, a number of subvariants have taken hold. BA.5 is the strain currently dominant in the United States.

While protection from an Omicron infection provided robust shielding against reinfection, those who contracted a pre-Omicron strain had little protection, according to the Qatari scientists, who were led by Dr. Laith Abu-Raddad with Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar.

Pre-Omicron infection provided just 15.1 percent effectiveness against symptomatic BA.4 and BA.5 reinfection and just 28 percent infection against any reinfection.

The scientists analyzed data from national COVID-19 databases.

Infections before Omicron were those that occurred before Dec. 19, 2021, when the variant wave started in Qatar.

Protection ‘Strong’

“Protection of a previous infection against BA.4/BA.5 reinfection was modest when the previous infection involved a pre-Omicron variant, but strong when the previous infection involved the Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 subvariant,” the scientists wrote.

Natural immunity has long been found to be superior to the protection from COVID-19 vaccines, and the new study is no exception. Vaccines provide little protection against Omicron infection and perform worse against infection and severe illness from the BA.4 and BA. 5 subvariants, studies have shown.

Natural immunity also waned against BA.4 and BA.5, highlighting how the subvariants are better at evading protection, the Qatari researchers found.

The group has been studying natural immunity for years and recently discovered that the protection from prior infection against severe disease showed no signs of waning, regardless of what strain infected the person.

Among the listed limitations for the new study was the young population of Qatar, where just 9 percent of residents are 50 years of age or older. That means the findings “may not be generalizable to other countries where elderly citizens constitute a larger proportion of the total population,” researchers wrote.

Some experts, including Abu-Raddad and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, continue recommending vaccination for people with natural immunity, pointing to studies that indicate one or more doses increase protection, but others say vaccination isn’t needed for people who survive COVID-19, since some research suggests the elevated protection is minimal and that the naturally immune are at higher risk of vaccine side effects.

Dr Paul Alexander

Everything was a lie about COVID, all of it! COVID virus, lockdown lunacy, & this fraud COVID Pfizer/Moderna injection; all we needed day 1 was proper protection of elderly and let rest live normal

All we needed day 1, was protect vulnerables & allow rest to live normal lives! nothing else! Everything was a fraud & caused deaths NEEDLESSLY! Lock them all up! all who did this to our populations!

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 15

Everything done, every single decision and action in COVID response and lockdown lunacy was a lie, in the Trump administration, in Biden’s, Trudeau’s, Boris Johnson’s, Macron etc. all…everyone of them, their governments, conspired and hurt their populations and we must get accountability!

Investigate them all, from Fauci to Bourla, to Walensky, to Birx, to Hahn…all of them, every single MP and MPP and senator and congressperson and leader and public health official and Task Force advisor…and examine each dollar$ of the PPE and PPP money in Canada and US and if any dollar was taken, stolen is the better term, then ensure we hold proper legal inquiries and if it is shown COVID policies caused deaths, we take every cent$ they have and jail them all! All involved!

end


Open in browser
Et tu? Et Tu German government? Higher natural immunity in Germany (eastern) may be partly responsible for lower BA.5 infections, and eugyppius is right and we showed this prior and bang on!
They cannot admit that it is vaccine, stupid, and that lower vaccine uptake in the east means lower infection, so they are saying ‘well, it must be natural immunity’; OK, we will take that, MORONS!
Dr. Paul Alexander
Jul 17

The west versus east divide is very clear, we can see what has happened here. The east, in it’s usual pattern of questioning and pushing back and not trusting moronic communism governments that they have suffered under (and the vestiges have remained structurally), opted for lower vaccine and they have benefitted and it paid dividends to them in the east. Likely also benefitted from innate immune system (innate antibodies) training and education and their kids are now with GOLD star immunity.So the morons cannot admit that the vaccine has failed and is indeed driving infection in the vaccinated (infection enhancing vaccinal antibodies that are non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies that do not neutralize/sterilize the virus and is actually enhancing/facilitating infection in the vaccinee; has to do with high-affinity vaccinal antibodies for the spike antigen binding sites, this means high specificity and this high specificity for the spike outcompetes the natural innate antibodies and prohibits optimal training and can devastate our children if children are vaccinated with this fraud failed COVID vaccine/mRNA) and the lower rates in the east is due to lower vaccine rates…they resisted in the east, huge praise for them…it’s that simple and correct! so they the corrupted inept government are now playing with language that it hhhhmmm, maybe ‘natural immunity’….can account for this, NOT the lower vaccine rates and not the vaccine driving infection in the vaccinated…ha ha ha, these idiots, these governments that hurt and harmed people with lockdown lunacy, killed innocent people, e.g. Fauci and Deborah Birx type people…inept corrupted people…


GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES/

Apple stock plunges after report of hiring and spending slowdown

(zerohedge_

Apple Plunge Drags Down Market After Reports Of Hiring & Spending Slowdown

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 01:36 PM

Bloomberg is reporting, according to people with knowledge of the matter, that Apple plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some divisions to cope with a potential economic downturn.

For some groups, the company won’t increase headcount in 2023, whereas it might normally hire 5% to 10% more employees in a given year. It also plans to not fill roles of departing employees for some groups.

The decision reportedly stems from a move to be more careful during uncertain times, though it isn’t a company-wide policy.

The headline prompted selling, slamming AAPL back into the red…

And that is weighing down the broader market…

As a reminder, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Snap and other tech companies have taken their own steps in recent weeks to rein in budgets and decelerate hiring. Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta have gone as far as to cut jobs – something Apple hasn’t historically done.

As Piper Sandler’s chief economist Nancy Lazar recently noted, “post-covid rightsizing means that lots more layoffs are coming” and adds that “many companies overhired and overpaid during the Covid crisis.” Lazar also points out the obvious, that “the stay-at-home bubble was a bubble, and not a “new paradigm” of goods consumption” which means that “a right-sizing cycle is coming, with weaker growth in jobs and wages.”

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Funeral Home Whistleblower: Hospitals Are Covering Up Baby Vaccine Deaths By Cremating Babies Themselves

July 15, 2022 4:07 pm

Funeral home director John O’Looney (UK) was interviewed by Maria Zeee (Australia) yesterday, where he discussed that hospitals were directly cremating babies who allegedly died after a COVID vaccine, most of them prenatal, rather than going to a funeral home. He states that he has never seen anything like this in his professional career as a funeral director, and that the only reason as to why hospitals were doing this was to prevent this information from reaching the public. Mr. O’Looney became a whistleblower early on in the vaccine roll outs, as he had bury so many young, previously healthy people in their early to mid-20s shortly after receiving COVID-19 vaccines, and his embalmer was seeing things in the arteries of those who were vaccinated that he had never seen previously. Meanwhile, another 141 cases of COVID-19 vaccine injuries in the 6 months old through 4 years old age group were added to the Vaccine Adverse Events Recording System (VAERS) database today.  As we reported last week, the damage being done to these young brains that are creating seizures and hallucinations is truly horrifying, where the most common side effect being reported is “Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome,” which the Cleveland Clinic defines as: “Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is a rare and life-threatening reaction to the use of any neuroleptic medication. Neuroleptics, also known as antipsychotic medications, treat and manage symptoms of many psychiatric conditions.” There is also extensive damage being done to their digestive tracts, with diarrhea and vomiting being reported, as well as pancreatitis and colitis, and many other gastrointestinal issues. Other side effects being reported among these babies and toddlers include anaphylactic shock, dementia, depression, lupus, Guillain-Barre syndrome, encephalitis, seizures, meningitis, and all sorts of rashes.

Read More…


More than 260,000 American Service Members could be Discharged due to Non-compliance with Vaccine Mandates

July 15, 2022 4:17 pm

The Biden administration’s strict Covid-19 vaccination mandates place more than 13% of the US’ fighting forces at risk of discharge, according to Department of Defense data updated on Wednesday. The Pentagon’s website shows 268,858 “partially vaccinated” individuals across the Army, Marines, Navy, and Air Force, plus another 50,710 civilian employees. However, the figures don’t include servicemembers who have had no shots at all, meaning the real number imperiled by the administration’s vaccine mandates could be significantly higher.

Read More…


NIH, FDA & CDC Employees Quitting In Droves Over Infant Covid Vaccines

July 15, 2022 6:27 pm

Two of America’s top health agencies are reportedly hemorrhaging staff as poor decision-making, described by staff as ‘bad science,’ has led to low morale. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) are both suffering staff shortages, according to Dr. Marty Makary, a top public-health expert at Johns Hopkins University, writes at Common Sense, the Substack run by former New York Times columnist, Bari Weiss. Both agencies, along with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have been mired in controversy throughout the pandemic for inconsistent messaging and for decision-making that didn’t seem to line up with available science. ‘They have no leadership right now. Suddenly, there’s an enormous number of jobs opening up at the highest level positions,’ an anonymous NIH scientist told Common Sense. The decision that seemed to raise the most commotion was the authorization of COVID-19 jabs for children aged six months to five years old.

Read More.


MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(DE GROOT)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Surges After Biden Fails To Win Saudi Pledge To Pump More Crude

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 10:20 AM

By Tom Ozimerk of The Epoch Times

Oil prices jumped on July 18 as the U.S. dollar softened and after President Joe Biden wrapped up his trip to Saudi Arabia, failing to secure a pledge from the Middle Eastern country to boost crude output.

Brent crude futures for September settlement rose $2.42, or 2.4 percent, to $103.58 a barrel by 5:30 a.m. New York time on July 18, after a 2.1 percent gain on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery gained $2.04, or 2.09 percent, to $99.64 a barrel, after climbing 1.9 percent in the previous session.

Last week, both Brent and WTI posted their biggest weekly drops in about a month as recession fears dented market sentiment. Yet oil supplies remained tight and the U.S. dollar has eased off recent highs, with both factors offering support to crude prices. At this rate, oil will be back to all time highs in no time at all.

Softer Dollar

The greenback weakened on Monday after hitting multi-decade highs against a basket of currency peers last week. The DXY dollar index touched nearly 109 on July 14, before easing to 107.3 by 6:36 a.m. New York time on July 18.

A weaker dollar tends to support oil prices and other dollar denominated commodities as it makes them a more attractive buy for holders of other currencies.

Buoyed by a weaker greenback, other commodities rose on Monday, including wheat and copper. A key industrial input, copper is seen by many analysts as a barometer of a recession.Wheat futures on the Chicago exchange rose 1.6 percent on July 18, recovering from their lowest in around five months.

Biden in Saudi Arabia

Monday’s moves in the price of oil and other commodities come on the heels of Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, which wrapped up without a pledge for the Kingdom to boost oil supply. Biden has called on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil producers to ramp up oil production in a bid to cool high gasoline prices and, more broadly, inflation.

Inflation in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated in June to a fresh 40-year high of 9.1 percent.

Despite Monday’s rally in a number of commodities, they’ve trended downward in recent weeks, suggesting inflationary pressures may be easing.

Gasoline prices have dropped over the past several weeks, with GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan saying in a July 17 statement that the most common gas price in the United States was now $3.99 per gallon.

The median gas price stood at $4.39 a gallon nationwide, while the top 10 percent most expensive locations averaged $5.71, De Haan added.

Despite no pledge from Saudi Arabia to boost output, Biden administration officials held out some hope for a little more supply-side relief.

Amos Hochstein, a senior State Department adviser for energy security, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on July 17 that, following Biden’s trip, several Gulf oil producers would be taking “a few more steps” to boost output, though he did not say which countries and by how much.

But analysts at ING said in a note that the Biden administration’s view that producers in the Middle East would boost output seems rosy and “comments from Saudi Arabia were less optimistic.”

“The Saudis have said that any changes in output would be done within the broader OPEC+ framework, and that the group would monitor the market and respond if needed,” they wrote, adding that, with the exception of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, there’s “little in the way of spare capacity.”

Markets will be watching the next OPEC+ meeting closely for supply signals as the cartel’s current output pact expires in September. The alliance of oil producing countries meets on Aug. 3.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

Katie Daviscourt🇺🇸 on Twitter: “PANAMA: Mass demonstrations underway as citizens rise up against the government over high inflation which increased the cost of food, fuel, and basic services. Panama is on the verge of collapsing.https://t.co/EHS0kyJPlH” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:47 PM (4 minutes ago)
to

IS THIS THE NEXT ONE TO FALL ?

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0124 UP  0.0057 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 138.35   DOWN 0.041 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1961 UP   0.01287

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 50.64 POINTS UP  1.55%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 548.46 PTS OR 2.70% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1/32%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 548.46 PTS OR  2.70% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.64 PTS UP 1.55% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.32% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 145.08 OR 0.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1712.30

silver:$18.82

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 107.04  DOWN 0.48  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.36%  UP 8  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.224% DOWN 1     AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.44%// UP 17   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.38  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.215%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0163 UP  0.0096    or 96 basis points

USA/Japan: 138.22 DOWN 0.168  OR YEN UP  46  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.19920  UP  0.0160 OR 160  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0078 OR 78 BASIS pts  to 1.2925

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7432  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7529

TURKISH LIRA:  17.47  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.224

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.010% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.170 UP 8 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.11 DOWN 81   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 59.68 PTS OR  0.83%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 95.09  POINTS OR 0.74%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 95/09 PTS OR 0.74% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 17.20 OR 0.22%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 235.86PTS OR  0.435%

WTI Oil price 101.73   12: EST

Brent Oil:  105.81  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  56.48  UP 0 AND 5/8        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.215

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0152 UP .0085     OR  85 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1959 UP .01276  or  128 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.04  DOWN 0.349//YEN UP 35 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2965 DOWN 0.0038 (CDN dollar UP 38  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 102.18

Brent OIL:  105.80

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.9630 up 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.138  up 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.46

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  56.34   UP 0 & 82/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 216.51 PTS OR 0.69 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 106.12 PTS OR 0.89%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.88 UP 1.65 PTS (6/81)%

GLD: 159.166 UP 0.15 PTS OR 0.09%

SLV/ 17.22 UP 03 CENTS OR 0.17%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Brent, Bitcoin, And Bonds Bounce As Rotten Apple Wrecks Tech

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Today’s market malarkey was brought to by the number ‘-12’ – the size of the drop in homebuilder sentiment that, ex-COVID-lockdowns, is the largest in history; and the word ‘Apple’ – which is reportedly slowing hiring and spending ahead of economic uncertainty.

Everything was looking great pre-market until Apple reports hit (or maybe it was this…)

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1549061375355404288&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbrent-bitcoin-and-bonds-bounce-rotten-apple-wrecks-tech&sessionId=5ebd4c8a8ecf7a61ee874db032470ad303983627&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=3235bd17138fa%3A1657578976990&width=550px

And as goes AAPL, so goes ‘Murican stocks… Nasdaq swung from +1.5% to -1% on the day

Nasdaq ripped back above its 50DMA early on before AAPL spoiled the party…

This is not the first time the Nasdaq has tried and failed at its 50DMA recently…

Cyclicals were panic-bid at the open – on a big squeeze – but gave most of it back as the day wore on. Defensives ended at the lows of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were higher in yield on the day but as stocks started to tank so did yields reversing as Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields pushed back above 3.00% but as stocks rolled over bonds were bid and 10Y fell back below 3.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was whacked lower today, reversing off the March 2020 highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Intraday was remarkably technical with the dollar rejecting 1298.1 (3/23/20 highs) and finding support at 1280.78 (1/03/17 highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum ripped back up to $1500…

Source: Bloomberg

…significantly outperforming Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold closed unchanged after surging during the Asia session and then saw constant selling through Europe and US sessions…

It appears Biden’s cunning plan – to look MbS in the eye and get him to produce more oil to save the American President’s approval ratings – is not working as oil prices are up dramatically since the fist-bump heard around the world with WTI testing back up to $100…

Finally, something’s gotta give…

Source: The Market Ear

Consumers are still spending, consumer sentiment still record-low: at the tipping point?

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

The real data showing recession in the uSA

(Dr Lacalle)

Recession May Already Be Here

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 08:38 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The debate about recession risk is pointless. We are already in a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States declined at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.

The Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a 1.5% contraction in the second quarter. But the underlying figures are scarier. According to the Atlanta Fed, “the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5% on July 15, down from -1.2% on July 8”. That is an enormous negative change, -0.3% of GDP, in one week.

They go on to say that “the nowcast of second quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9% and -13.7%, respectively, to 1.5% and -13.8%, respectively”.

Investment is collapsing, consumption is barely kept alive and if we look at other components, imports are soaring while exports rise less than expected.

This is the backlash of massive stimulus packages. An artificial boost to GDP in one year from two trillion US dollars of excessive spending generated a non-structural rise in GDP that immediately leads to a contraction. However, the debt increase remains, and the structural problems are evident.

The labor market is only strong in headlines. In June, the number of long-term unemployed was unchanged at 1.3 million. This is 215,000 higher than in February 2020. Labor force participation rate was 62.2%, employment-population ratio 59.9%. Both remain below February 2020 levels (63.4% and 61.2%) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Meanwhile, inflation eats any wage rise and real median wage increase is negative in 2022. Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2021 to June 2022, the BLS reports.

Negative real wage growth, weakening consumption, decade-low consumer confidence and collapsing investment means we are already in recession and the massive stimulus plans have created nothing but debt.

Inflation expectations are moderating for the wrong reason: a recession. Although these expectations remain above the levels that we would consider normal (3.4% median over three years compared to 2% that we would call “normal”), this moderation comes from the correction in those commodities most linked to industrial activity. Oil and natural gas remain at elevated levels, but have corrected massively in one month, far from the prices reached in March. However, both maintain an extraordinarily strong rise so far this year and the winter effect is clear in the futures curves that continue in backwardation (a positive medium-term price signal). Furthermore, copper, aluminum and iron ore are down on the year, showing that industrial activity is not improving as many expected. The Baltic Dry Index has also corrected rapidly, a signal of cooling off in freight rates. The Chinese slowdown is relevant, but domestic demand in the United States is clearly contracting relative to a year ago.

Consumption is also slowing down due to high inflation and its effect on household disposable income. That is why it is key that central banks contain inflation by reducing the amount of money in the system and adapting interest rates to inflation to contain price escalation.

The biggest concern regarding inflation is that core inflation -excluding the energy and food component- continues to advance to figures not seen since the early nineties.

The probability of a recession in the US has risen to 50% according to the Bloomberg consensus, and to 45% in the eurozone. However, all metrics point to an evident recession in the private sector. Credit conditions remain strong and, although they have recently tightened, they are far from crisis levels. Far from crisis levels but certainly equivalent to recession periods.

A severe slowdown implies that rate hikes are likely to end in November, following the US mid-term elections, and that central bank policy will remain accommodative. This would be a double danger because the sticky elements of inflation are not truly addressed and the incentive for governments to repeat the failed spending plans will be enormous.

Almost every data that points to the private sector activity is in contraction. June industrial production fell 0.2% in June after stalling in May. Capacity utilization fell to 80% after being revised down from 80.8% to 80.3% in May according to the Federal Reserve. All this, even with Mining rising 1.7% in June after rising 1.2% in May due to the high oil and gas demand. The oil and gas sector keeps the manufacturing part of the economy alive.

The United States economy has almost no impact from the Russian invasion. It has extremely limited trade with Russia. Energy prices are elevated but the United States is energy independent. In fact, it has become one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas to Europe, thus saving the European economy from supply cuts.

If there is a recession in the United States it is not due to the Ukraine invasion or external factors, but due to the incorrect inflationist policies implemented during 2020 and 2021. The United States is suffering the hangover of another set of misguided Keynesian policies. Monster government spending and massive monetization of debt have created a mess in an economy, the United States, which should be leading the world today precisely because of its energy, technology, and labor market advantage.

end

Homebuilder Confidence Collapses In July

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 10:07 AM

The index of builder sentiment finally gave way and plunged to 55 in July from 67 last month, seventh straight monthly decline and lowest since May 2020.

Source: Bloomberg

“Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter

All three components plunged

  • Measure of present single family sales fell to 64 vs 76
  • Future single family sales gauge fell to 50 vs 61
  • Prospective buyers traffic measure fell to 37 vs 48

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that homebuilder sentiment still has a long way to go to catch down to homebuyer sentiment…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what you wanted Mr.Powell?

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Bank stocks continue to be hurt by lack of profits.  This time it is Bank of America as in the earning reports, they witness profits tumble with big misses in equity trading and

mortgage business as well as the loss reserves jump

(zerohedge)

Bank of America Profit Tumbles; EPS, Equity Trading Miss, Loss Reserves Jump

MONDAY, JUL 18, 2022 – 07:53 AM

With the final day of bank earnings on deck, the first of two big pre-market reporters, Bank of America, moments ago unveiled Q2 earnings that joined the disappointment parade missing on the top and the bottom line, reporting revenue of $22.7BN, in line with expectations and EPS of $0.73, just below the $0.75 expected, a 9% drop from the EPS reported in Q1 and a 29% plunge from Q2 2021. Net income came in at $6.247 billion, which is down from $7.067 billion last quarter, and a 32%, or $3 billion plunge, compared to $9.224 billion from Q2 2021.

Here are some more top-line results details: revenue, net of interest expense, rose $1.2BN or 6% Y/Y to $22.69B; it dropped 2% or $0.5BN from Q1 2022 however.

A breakdown of revenues shows the following:

  • Net interest income (NII) of $12.4B ($12.5B FTE) increased $2.2B, or 22%, smashing expectations of a $12.3BN print, and driven by higher interest rates, lower premium amortization and strong loan growth. The net interest yield of 1.86% was well above the 1.77% estimate.
  • However, while NII jumped, Noninterest income of $10.2B disappointed as it decreased $1.0B, or 9%, “driven by lower investment banking fees, mark-to-market losses related to leveraged finance positions and lower service charges due to non-sufficient funds and overdraft policy changes,” partially offset by higher sales and trading revenues

Provision for credit losses came ina t $0.5B, better than expected, including a small reserve release of $48 million and $571 million of net charge-offs vs. a benefit of $1.6B in 2Q21. BofA said that “reserves remained relatively flat to prior quarter as builds for loan growth and the impact of a dampening macroeconomic outlook were offset by asset quality improvement and reduced pandemic uncertainty.” On the other end, net charge-offs (NCOs) of $571MM declined 4%; net charge-off ratio of 23 bps. NCO ratio did jump 7% from Q1, however, rising by almost $179 million.

Noninterest expense of $15.3B increased $0.2B, or 2%, vs. 2Q21, and remained flat QoQ, despite approximately $425MM
recognized for certain regulatory matters
. The increase also included regulatory matters.

A quick look at the balance sheet shows some growth there too, with total loans rising 12% Y/Y to $1.015 trillion, above the estimate $1.01 trillion…

… while total deposits of $2.012 trillion, rose 7% Y/Y (they did drop modestly from Q1) and were in line with the estimate of $2.02 trillion:

The bank was also kind enough to share it daily loan and lease balances: the bounce here is clearly visible across all products.

Turning to the bank’s trading division, we find that Trading revenue excluding DVA rose 11% Y/Y to $4.00 billion, just barely missing the $4.01 billion Bloomberg estimate, and driven by an equities trading miss offset by a modest FICC beat: 

  • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.34 billion, +19% y/y, beating the estimate $2.29 billion; according to the bank, “FICC revenue increased to $2.5B, driven by improved performance across all macro products, partially offset by a weaker trading performance in credit products”
  • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.66 billion, +1.5% y/y, missing the estimate $1.72 billion; per BofA, “equities revenue increased to $1.7B, driven by a strong trading performance in derivatives offset by a weaker trading performance in cash

On the expense side, noninterest expense of $3.1B decreased 10% vs. 2Q21, primarily driven by the absence of expenses related to a liquidating business activity, which however was “partially offset by higher expenses recognized for certain regulatory matters.”

Also of note, average Q2 VaR of $118MM rose significantly from $77MM in Q2 2021 and $79MM in Q1 2022.

Meanwhile, Investment banking revenue $1.13 billion, missing the estimate $1.31 billion and down sharply from $2.11 billion a year ago. Despite the drop in Ibanking revenue, non-interest expense of $2.8B increased 8% from 2Q21, “reflecting continued investments in the business, including strategic hiring, and higher expenses recognized for certain regulatory matters.” Advisory revenues came in at $392 million — that’s actually better than the $362 million analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting.

Elsewhere, the bank’s Wealth & investment management revenue dropped 1% from a year ago but rose by $368 million from a year ago to $5.43 billion, matching estimates $5.43 billion. Here, Bank of America does something interesting and breaks out how much of their assets under management in the wealth unit has dropped due to market valuations. It looks like the craziness in markets in the second quarter shaved off $161.2 billion in AUM in the second quarter, that’s more than double the amount that AUM declined in the first quarter.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO BrianMoynihan said that “solid client activity across our businesses, coupled with higher interest rates, drove strong net interest income growth and allowed us to perform well in a weakened capital markets environment,” said CEO Brian Moynihan. “As we enter the second half of the year, we believe we are well-positioned to deliver for our shareholders while continuing to invest in our people, businesses and communities,” he added noting that “Our US consumer clients remained resilient with continued strong deposit balances and spending levels.”

CFO Alastair Borthwick also chimed in saying that “our earnings generation over the next 18 months will provide ample capital to support growth, pay dividends, buy back shares and continue to invest in our people, platforms and communities as we grow into new regulatory capital level requirements.” Borthwick also noted that Bank of America gave $2.7 billion back to shareholders this quarter.

Bank of America also shared interesting stats that show the health of the US consumer right now and how they’re handling once-in-a-generation levels of inflation. To start: They show that overall spending on their products is up 13% so far this year, coming in at $2.1 trillion. As Bloomberg further details, it looks like folks are finally getting back out and traveling and enjoying entertainment: Spending on those items is up 41% compared to last year. But you can also see the evidence of inflation pretty starkly: Spending on gas is up a whopping 42% compared to last year, while spending on food is up 13%. Just gas and food costs are now taking up 30% of consumer’s wallets.

There’s also an interesting slide in the presentation, where Bank of America shows just how different it’s become since 2009 and 2019 — the last time the US was heading into recessionary periods. Bank of America says it’s got lower concentration in consumer, less exposure to unsecured consumer credit and home equity loans, and its commercial real estate portfolio is more balanced with less concentration in construction loans.

In kneejerk response, BAC stock has been volatile and after initially sliding as much as 2%.

The full Q2 presentation is below (pdf link)

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

SWAMP STORIES

END

King report


 

Greg Hunter: interviewing Dane Wigington 

40 Million in US West Without Water in 2023 – Dane Wigington

By Greg Hunter On July 16, 2022 In Political Analysis86 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington says the extreme drought conditions in the U.S. are caused by man-made weather modification called geoengineering.  It’s not some naturally occurring event, but an “engineered drought catastrophe.”  Wigington says after decades of climate engineering, things are getting so bad that millions in the Southwestern United States will be without water sometime in 2023.  Wigington explains, “The mainstream media and official sources are doing their best to sweep it under the rug.  We are talking about 40 million people that will be impacted by the drying out of the Colorado River basin and tributaries.”

Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas are the few of the cities that are already struggling with severe water conservation restrictions.  Wigington says, “Drought caused by man-made weather modification is not coming, it’s here now and will only get worse from here on out. . . . There is no speculation, no hypothesis or conjecture in any of this.  Climate engineering is the primary cause for the protracted drought, and not just in the U.S. but in many other parts of the world.  It also causes a deluge scenario, and all of it is crushing crops.  We can speculate to the motives and agendas behind those who run these operations, but the fact that climate engineering is the primary causal factor for the western drought is inarguable.”

When will this all take place?  Wigington’s data says, “When Lake Mead reaches the ‘dead-pool’ status, and we are not there yet, the estimations are the dead-pool might be early next year.  Prior to that, right now, we are talking about extreme water rationing.  That means the crops are being cut off now.  It’s not coming, it’s happening now. . . . Water for irrigation is long since gone, and there will be no electrical power generation. . . . The evaporation levels are far higher than what has been disclosed.  That means lake levels will drop far faster than even the worst-case official predictions right now.  This is a runaway train of total cataclysm, and those in power are preventing anyone from even discussing this issue down to the point that there is an illegal federal gag order on the nation’s weathermen at the National Weather Service and NOAA.”

According to Wigington, one city will be spared from drying out for a while, and that is Las Vegas.  There is a tunnel 600 feet below the surface of Lake Mead that will take water to Sin City long after the lake becomes a dead-pool and the Colorado River stops flowing.  Wigington says, “This was an extraordinary engineering project.  The only one of its type in many ways. . . . They had to have a specially designed tunnel boring machine for the 24-foot-wide tunnel that is designed to suck every last drop of water out of Lake Mead.”  The project cost $1.5 billion.

Wigington says what is happening is being hidden for as long as possible, but what needs to happen now is to immediately stop man-made weather modification.  Wigington says, “They can and are using this as a weapon to control food production and control populations in various regions. . . . This is a fight for life.  People think if they get their shots and wear their masks that their life will go back to normal.  It’s not going to happen. . . . Climate engineering is stopping the planet from recovering. . . It’s a weapon. . . . We have to stop it or we are done.”

There is much more in the 43-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with climate researcher Dane Wigington, founder of GeoEngineeringWatch.org for 7.16.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/40-million-in-us-west-without-water-in-2023-dane-wigington/)

After the Interview:

See you TOMORROW

3 comments

  1. Benny Boy · · Reply

    The FORCE MAJEURE is only for germany everyone else is still getting it. Pipelines through Ukriane still goes at 100% and the Nord stream 1 is at 40% which goes to NL. It’s the 60% that was suppose to go to Germany but without the turbine can’t go higher then 40%.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: