JULY 15/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $3.75 TO $1704.65//SILVER UP 31 CENTS TO $18.67//PLATINUM UP $3.75 TO $847.40//PALLADIUM DOWN $70.55 TO $1844.25//ANDREW MAGUIRE IN THE VAULT IS A MUST VIEW (KINESIS 82)//COVID UPDATES//NEW YORK JUDGE MAKES VACCINE MANDATES UNCONSTITUTIONAL/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//ENERGY CRISIS HITS 3 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, ITALY, GERMANY AND FRANCE// FRANCE TURNS OUT STREET LIGHTS//EUROPEANS THIRST FOR LNG CAUSINGHAVOC TO DEVELOPING NATIONS WHO CANNOT GET THEIR HANDS ON THE STUFF/ SAUDIS ARE NOW PREPARED TO JOIN BRICS//RIOTS CONTINUE IN SRI LANKA AND NOW ALSO IN PANAMA//WELLS FARGO THE LEADER IN THE MORTGAGE FIELD REPORTS ON LOWER EARNINGS AND AS WELL THEIR MORTGAGE LENDING GRINDS TO A HALT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1704.65 DOWN $3.75 

SILVER: $18.67 up 31 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1707.00

SILVER: $18.70

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,800 UP 124

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20.977. UP 301 

Platinum price: closing UP $3.75 to $847.40

Palladium price; closing DOWN $70.55  at $1844.25

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,704.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/14/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/18/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 87
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 60
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1325
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 150 1437
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
880 C CITIGROUP 10
905 C ADM 8


TOTAL: 1,544 1,544
MONTH TO DATE: 6,437

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 1437/1544 

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT 1544  NOTICE(S) FOR 154,400 Oz//4.8024  TONNES)

total notices so far: 6437 contracts for 643,700 oz (2.021 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

91 NOTICE(S) FILED 455,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2860 :  for 14,300,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 31 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 510.443 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4678  CONTRACTS TO 149,088   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.88 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.88) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6772 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 465,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : + 190

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total 10,481  contracts:  52.405 million oz  OR 5.2405 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1,048 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 52.405 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 52.405 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4678 DESPITE OUR  $0.88 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 2284 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 465,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 6962 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 34.810 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 91  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  455,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A WHOPPING SIZED 16,578 CONTRACTS  TO 552,130 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -72 CONTRACTS.

.

THE GIGANTIC SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $28.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITION ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 126,200 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $28.75 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,676  OI CONTRACTS 76.75 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  8098 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 552,202

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A WHOPPING  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,748 CONTRACTS  WITH 16,650 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8098 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,748 CONTRACTS OR 76.97 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8098) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (16,578,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  24,748 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS AND SOME ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 126,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//considerable SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS/ //.,4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

58,117 CONTRACTS OR 5,811,700 OZ OR 180.76  TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5812 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 180.76 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  180.76/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 180.76 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4678 CONTRACT OI TO 149,088 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 2284 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 2284  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:2284 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 4488  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2284 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 6962   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 33.86 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.88

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.68 PTS OR 1.64%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 453.49 OR 2.19%    /The Nikkei closed UP 145.08 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.74%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7550    /Oil UP TO 97.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 100.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7750 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7693: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

 

 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A WHOPPER SIZED 16,578 CONTRACTS TO 552,130 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $28.75  IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP (8098 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 8098 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :8098 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8098 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 24,676  CONTRACTS IN THAT 8098 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 16,130  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $28.75.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (20.554),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 20.544 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $28.75) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF A FEW  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN  OF 76.97 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (20.544 TONNES)

WE HAD -72  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24,676 CONTRACTS OR  2,467,600  OZ OR 76.75 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 192,986/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  339,734 / very good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 15

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz248,720.013 oz
Malca
Brinks
JPMorgan
5000 kilobars JPM
1614 kilobars: Malca
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today1544  notice(s)154,400 OZ
4.8024 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)168 contracts 16,800 oz
0.5225 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6437 notices
643700 OZ
20.021 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks 36,073.422 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 106,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)

iii) Out of Malca: 51,891.7134 oz (1614 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 248,720.13   oz

ADJUSTMENTS:3 dealer to customer

Brinks:  15,821.849 oz

JPM:  137,779.879 oz

Loomis: 192.906 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 1712 contracts having GAINED 839 contracts . We had

423 notices filed on Thursday so we gained a WHOPPING 1262  contracts or an additional 126,200 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 11,474 contracts down to 265,723 contracts

Sept. gained 180 contracts to 2704 contracts.

We had 1544 notice(s) filed today for  154,400 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  150 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1544 contract(s) of which   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  1437 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6437) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 1712  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 1544 x 100 oz per contract equals 660,500 OZ  OR 20.544 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6437) x 100 oz+   (1712)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1544} x 100 oz} which equals 660,500 oz standing OR 20.554 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  20.554 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  31,898,739.402 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,674,652.519  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,219,085.885 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,775,552.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 421 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 15

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory535,274.855  oz

CNT
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,206,171.570 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)91CONTRACT(S)
455,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)189 contracts (945,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3062 contracts 15,310,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 1,166,575.500 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 4117.250 oz

iii) Into Brinks 35,478.820 oz

total deposit:  1,206,171.570   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.916 million oz/341.950 million =51.74% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:23

i) Out of CNT: 327,907.575 oz

iv) out of Manfra: 205,367.280 oz

total withdrawal  1535,274.855         oz

 adjustments: 0/

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.196 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341.950 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 280 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 18 CONTRACTS HAD 111 NOTICES FILED

ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 93 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  465,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 22 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1122

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 3954 CONTRACTS UP TO 121,935 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 91 for  455,000 oz

Comex volumes:52,199// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 87,313 contracts ( strong )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3062 x 5,000 oz = 15 310,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(280) and the number of notices served upon today 91  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 3062 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (280)  – number of notices served upon today (91) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 16,255,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1016.89 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A IWTHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 510.443 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Slowdown In Money Creation Could Be Another Recession Signal

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The slowdown in money creation could be signaling a recession.

The growth in the money supply has dropped precipitously over the last several months. As measured by M2, the money supply expanded by 6.6% year on year. That was down from April’s growth rate of 8.21%. In  May 2021, M2 grew by 14.30%. M2 growth peaked at a record 26.91% in February 2021.

Based on the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS), money supply growth also dropped in May after rising slightly during the previous two months.

Between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth often climbed above 35% on a year-over-year basis.

Economists Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno developed TMS to better measure money supply fluctuations. TMS differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed while excluding short-time deposits and retail money funds.

As Mises Institute senior editor Ryan McMaken explains, changes in money supply growth can help measure economic activity and indicate looming recessions.

“During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession.”

As you can see from the chart above, based on TMS, money supply growth already appears to be trending higher, the slight drop in May notwithstanding.

The gap between M2 and TMS is also revealing. Historically, TMS has climbed and become larger than M2 in the early months of a recession.

According to McMaken, this occurred in the early months of the 2001 and the 2007–09 recession. A similar pattern appeared before the 2020 recession.

And it happened again in May when the M2 growth rate fell below the TMS growth rate for the first time since 2020.

As our technical analyst noted recently, even though inflation is unlikely to come down as the money supply continues to grow, the stock market and economy are built on a rapidly expanding money supply. With such sluggish growth, it will be very challenging for the stock market to hit new highs and the economy to avoid recession.

The Atlanta Fed recently lowered its Q2 GDP projection into negative territory. That would indicate we have been in a recession since the beginning of the year. Most people seem to think the recession will be short and shallow, but Peter Schiff recently said that is a fantasy.

“The idea that this recession could be anything but severe is farcical. There is no way we can have a shallow recession.”

END

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your reading material for this weekend

(Courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: The collapsing euro and its implications

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-07-14 18:21Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, July 13, 2022

The euro system and its currency are descending into crisis. Comprised of the European Central Bank and the national central banks, the system is over its head in balance-sheet debt and it is far from clear how that can be resolved.

Normally, a central bank is easy to recapitalise. But in the case of the euro system, when the lead institution and all its shareholders need to be recapitalised all at the same time, the challenge could be impossible.

And then there’s all the imbalances in the TARGET2 system to resolve as well before national legislatures can sign it all off. Additionally but part of the TARGET2 problem there is the repo market with E8.7 trillion outstanding set to implode on rising interest rates, destroying commercial bank balance sheets, which are already highly leveraged.

This goes some way to explaining the deep reluctance the ECB has about raising interest rates. While producer prices in key member states are rising at more than 30% year-on-year, and consumer prices by more than 8%, the ECB keeps its deposit rate at minus 0.5%. It knows that if euro bond yields go any higher, their situation, which is already untenable, will disintegrate into a full-blown crisis.

Therefore, the euro is sliding. Markets can see that all the ECB is doing is talking the talk and otherwise is frozen into inaction. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/the-collapsing-euro-and-its-implications

END 

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7550

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7693

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 453.49 PTS OR  2.19%

2. Nikkei closed UP 145.03 OR 0.54%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  108.14/Euro RISES TO 1.0059

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.227/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 138.69/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.147%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.30%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.47//

3j Gold at $1702.70 silver at: 18.43  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1  AND 35/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.94

3m oil into the 97 dollar handle for WTI and  100 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.07DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9791– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9849well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.943 DOWN 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.096  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.45

Futures, Oil Jump As Record Dollar Rally Fizzles

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 07:57 AM

US futures and European stocks advanced, shaking off data that showed China’s economy expanded slowest pace since the initial 2020 Wuhan outbreak amid pervasive lockdowns…

… while the dollar’s record surge stalled at the end of a week in which markets have been whipsawed by shifting expectations for monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and worries over global economic growth.

S&P futures traded at session highs, rising 0.38% or 14 points to 3807.50 signaling a higher open for US stocks after Wall Street closed with a small drop as investors dialed back expectations of how aggressively the Fed will hike interest rates to combat inflation. Europe’s Estoxx50 gained 1% in quiet trading while Asian stocks closed mixed after lower-than-forecast China GDP data. Oil reversed recent losses which briefly dragged it below the 200DMA, and was also near session highs, up 3% even as WTI is poised to end the week below $100 a barrel for the first time since April.  Commodity metals remained under pressure, with copper touching below $7,000/t, its lowest level in 20 months, as growth data from China fueled concern around the demand outlook for commodities while gold tested support at $1,700/oz. Treasuries rose and the the yield curve between two-year and 10-year maturities remained inverted, something viewed as recession signal. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped from a record high.

In premarket trading, Wells Fargo dropped after missing analysts’ second-quarter profit estimates, adding to worries about the outlook for corporate profits after disappointing results yesterday from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Pinterest (PINS US) shares surge as much as 16% in premarket trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a stake in the social- media company.
  • Codexis (CDXS US) tumbles 21% in premarket trading after the enzyme engineering company cut its sales guidance for the year and reported preliminary quarterly revenue that trailed the average estimate.
  • Vonage (VG US) rises 7% in premarket trading after Ericsson receives all the necessary approvals from regulators to buy the cloud-based communications provider.
  • Solar stocks could be active on Friday after Senator Joe Manchin told Democratic leaders he wouldn’t support new spending on climate measures or tax increases. First Solar (FSLR US) falls 2% in premarket trading.

Investors are evaluating how hawkish the Fed must be to curb inflation and the likely toll on the economy. Bets on a one-percentage-point July rate hike have been scaled back after the latest commentary pointed toward 75 basis points; a retail sales miss in this morning’s data should take a 100bps rate hike off the table.

“It seems most market operators are buying the news after selling the rumor of more monetary tightening brought by a higher US CPI,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. Investors now expect a 0.75-1% rate hike from the Fed at the end of the month, he said adding that the tightening cycle is projected to end with the benchmark rate at about 3.2% in 2023, with monetary policy then seen as easing to combat slower economic conditions.

The pace of monetary tightening along with ebbing liquidity still threatens to stir more market volatility after steep losses for stocks and bonds in 2022. In his latest comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed raising rates by 75 basis points this month, nixing Nomura’s base case of a 100bps rate hike, though he said he could go bigger if warranted by the data. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard echoed some of those comments, saying he favored hiking by the same amount.

“We need liquidity to dry up in order to reduce inflation,” Erin Gibbs, chief investment officer at Main Street Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Radio. “It’s a challenge, it’s a difficult situation, transition. I don’t envy the Federal Reserve, but we’ve known there has been too much money out there and that’s why we’re here in this position.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rallied 1.2%. DAX outperforms adding 1.7%. Autos, energy and retailers are the strongest-performing sectors, while luxury stocks got hit after data showed China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the country was first hit by the coronavirus outbreak two years ago. LVMH led the declines in European luxury stocks while Richemont and Burberry slide as China’s Covid Zero policy weighs on results. Louis Vuitton owner LVMH down 2.2%, while Birkin handbag maker Hermes and watch maker Swatch fall 1.1% and 3.1%, respectively, as China is a key market for luxury houses. Italy’s benchmark index rallied after the country’s president rejected an offer from Mario Draghi to resign as prime minister. Here are the biggest European equity movers:

  • European automakers and car-parts suppliers lead gains in Europe with the Stoxx 600 Autos sub-index up as much as 3.8%. BofA analysts say current sector concerns are overdone.
  • Uniper gains as much as 12% on Friday as Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock and progress was said to be made on its rescue package. Fortum, which owns 75% of Uniper, up 3.4%.
  • Fevertree shares fall as much as 33%, the most on record, after the high-end tonic maker cut its outlook for the year. RBC said the profit warning raises questions about the company’s pricing power and long-term earnings potential, while UBS pointed to concerns about the “visibility on 2022 and beyond.”
  • Burberry shares drop as much as 7%, the most since March 4, after the British fashion brand surprised investors by reporting a weak 1Q in the Americas. The operating environment in China remains “extremely volatile,” according to Morgan Stanley.
  • Richemont shares fall as much as 6%, the most since May 20, with the 1Q sales beat not enough to quell investor concern over the broader macro-economic backdrop, including what Citigroup calls an “uncertain recovery in China.”
  • TomTom shares gained as much as 9.8%, most since Feb. 7, after company reported “satisfactory results given challenging circumstances,” writes ING.
  • Hapag-Lloyd shares drop as much as 7.1% after Morgan Stanley cuts its recommendation to underweight from equal-weight on expectations that demand for containers will decline in 2023.
  • Direct Line shares rise as much as 3.6% following a 12% drop for the motor insurer in the prior session. Berenberg upgrades its rating to buy, saying the decline has created an opportunity, while JPMorgan cuts its ratings on both Direct Line and peer Admiral.
  • Rio Tinto shares fall as much as 2.9% in London after the miner’s 2Q production report, with the company noting headwinds from a global economic slowdown and China’s Covid outbreaks.
  • Aston Martin shares jump as much as 28%, reversing an early decline, after the luxury car-maker announces a funding package. Friday’s gain is the biggest since May 2020.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as renewed fear of a crackdown on enterprises battered Chinese internet names while traders assessed the market impact from weaker-than-expected China growth data and corporate earnings.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, on track for a weekly decline. Alibaba dragged down the Asian benchmark and the Hang Seng Tech Index following a report that said some company executives were summoned for talks by authorities in Shanghai in connection with the theft of a vast police database. All but two sectors slipped.  Stocks in China declined after data showed that the world’s second-largest economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, the slowest pace since the country was first hit by the coronavirus outbreak two years ago. While the lower-than-expected expansion extended hopes that Beijing would maintain its easing stance, the latest figure puts its GDP target out of reach. According to Jack Siu, Greater China chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, the government’s current fiscal stimulus on tax rebate and the front loading of special purpose bonds issuance should bring 2022 GDP to 4.8%. READ: Fresh Scrutiny of Alibaba Sends China Tech Stocks Into Tailspin “While disappointing growth data gave views that the current easing stance would be maintained, traders are waiting for the government’s further response as banks, property and other sectors are hit by regulations and growth concerns,” said Kim Kyung Hwan, a Chinese equity strategist at Hana Financial Investment.

Asian stocks are poised for their worst week in about a month amid worries about resurging virus cases in China and a possible global recession. Central banks in the region and elsewhere have been tightening their policy to curb high inflation, with decisions by Singapore and the Philippines surprising investors earlier in the week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose as the yen held near a fresh 24-year low, remaining close to 140 per dollar.  The Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to 26,788.47 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Topix index was virtually unchanged at 1,892.50. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 745 rose and 1,334 fell, while 91 were unchanged. “The yen’s depreciation to 139 yen provided support, but there is a limit to that,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.7% to close at 6,605.60, dragged lower by miners and energy stocks as commodities from iron ore to copper declined. Pendal was the worst performer after reporting net outflows for the third quarter of A$4.2 billion. Iron ore miners dropped on weaker prices for the steelmaking ingredient. Goldman analysts also cut their rating on peer BHP, while Rio Tinto warned of headwinds emerging from a global economic slowdown and China’s Covid-19 outbreaks. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.6% to 11,122.61.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped with AUD and NZD the weakest performers in G-10 FX, while CHF and SEK outperform. The euro held above parity, rising to session highs as US traders walked in. Sterling hovered near a two-year low against the US dollar, which remains broadly supported by demand for the safe-haven greenback. Markets will be keeping an eye on a debate between UK Conservative party candidates later in the day for a steer on who could become the country’s next prime minister. The Aussie weakened for a second day after Westpac trimmed its forecast for RBA rate hikes, and iron-ore prices tumbled. The yen rose from a 24-year low as risk sentiment was subdued amid weak Chinese economic data and concerns over aggressive policy tightening in the US.

In rates, Treasuries rose, led by the belly, while gilts jumped at the open and bunds extended gains. Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with front-end lagging, mildly flattening 2s10s and 2s5s spreads. Yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with 10-year around 2.93%, trading broadly inline with bunds and outperforming Italian bonds by 4bp. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 6.5bps to 213.4bps. Italian bonds yields rose at the front end of the curve as political uncertainty prevailed: indeed, the focus remains on Italian bonds after President Sergio Mattarella rejected Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resignation late Thursday. US session includes a packed data slate and three Fed speakers before blackout ahead of July 27 policy meeting. 

In commodities, crude futures rose. WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.3% to trade near $96.05. Brent rises 0.7% near $99.83. Metals remain under pressure, with copper touching below $7,000/t and gold testing support at $1,700/oz.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for June, along with the Empire State manufacturing survey for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Rehn, and the Fed’s Bostic and Bullard. Earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Citigroup. Finally, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will be meeting in Indonesia.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,795.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 410.06
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 153.77
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 505.79
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,788.47
  • Topix little changed at 1,892.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 20,297.72
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,228.06
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 53,490.31
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,605.57
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,330.98
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.11%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0026
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,702.69
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 108.58

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the country was first hit by the coronavirus outbreak two years ago, making Beijing’s growth target for the year increasingly unattainable as economists downgrade their forecasts further. The 0.4% expansion in GDP reported for the second quarter, when dozens of cities including Shanghai and Changchun imposed lockdowns, was the second weakest ever recorded
  • With Italy on the brink of chaos, Mario Draghi has less than a week to forge some difficult compromises with the populists in his government that have reluctantly backed him for the past 18 months
  • The ECB will unveil an unlimited bond-buying tool next week to help markets better adjust to steeper and faster interest-rate increases than previously thought, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say
  • Copper is heading for its steepest weekly decline since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, with fears mounting of a recession that could destroy global demand for industrial commodities

A more detailed looked at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after the 100bps Fed rate hike bets unwound and with headwinds from China’s GDP miss. ASX 200 was dragged lower by the mining sector amid losses in Rio Tinto shares despite an increase in its quarterly output and shipments, as it also warned of headwinds to its business and higher costs. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses but was ultimately higher intraday amid recent currency weakness and with index heavyweight Fast Retailing boosted by strong 9-month results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive after disappointing Chinese growth data which showed weaker than expected GDP and Industrial Production, although Retail Sales surprisingly expanded and the Unemployment Rate declined.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 1-year MLF vs CNY 100bln maturing with the rate kept at 2.85%.
  • China’s Foreign Minister Wang also commented that China-Australia relations currently face challenges and opportunities, while he added that China is willing to recalibrate relations in the spirit of mutual respect, according to Reuters.
  • China NBS official said downward pressure on the domestic economy increased substantially during Q2 and that the foundation for a sustained economic recovery is not solid, while the economy is facing shrinking demand and supply shock, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Huaiyuan county has announced a lockdown amid COVID, according to local TV; 151 prelim cases were reported on July 14th, according to CCTV.
  • China Traders Pile Into Carry Trades While Easy Money Lasts
  • Telkom Indonesia Jumps Most in Seven Months on 2Q Bet
  • MTN in Talks to Buy Rival Telkom in Cash & Shares: M&A Snapshot
  • SK Hynix Is Said to Weigh Slashing Spending by 25% in 2023

European bourses are firmer across the board, as initial jittery performance dissipated with participants looking to US data and Fed speak. US futures are in the green, but only modestly so, and have been relatively contained awaiting further guidance from upcoming Fed  officials on the 75bp/100bp discussion. UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q2 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.57 (exp. 5.20/4.98 GAAP), Revenue 80.30bln (exp. 79.68bln). BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 7.06 (exp. 7.90) Revenue 4.53bln (exp. 4.65bln). AUM 8.49tln (exp. 8.86tln). Net inflows 89.57bln (exp. 116.78bln).

Top European News

  • ECB’s Rehn says ECB likely to go 25bps in July and 50bps in September. Note, the ECB is in its quiet period at the moment.
  • Burberry Upbeat on Outlook But Concerns About China Remain
  • Aston Martin Stock Jumps as Carmaker’s Fundraising Calms Nerves
  • Euro Extreme Bearish Bets Have Room to Grow on NatGas Shut Off
  • UBS Wealth Sees 15% Downside for European Stocks in Recession

FX

  • Dollar in need of consumption or production boost after two Fed hawks lean against 100bp hike expectations that were becoming embedded for forthcoming FOMC meeting, DXY retreats through 108.500 after setting new 2022 peak at 109.290 yesterday.
  • Franc outpaces fellow majors as yields retreat and curves re-steepen, while retaining bid against Euro, USD/CHF sub-0.9800 vs high near 0.9900 on Thursday, EUR/CHF depressed largely under 0.9850.
  • Aussie underperforms as Chinese GDP data disappoints and iron ore dumps in response; AUD/USD top heavy above 0.6750, AUD/NZD reverses around 1.1000 handle.
  • Loonie pares declines from new y-t-d low vs Greenback as crude prices stabilise, USD/CAD close to 1.15bln option expiries at the 1.3100 strike compared to 1.3200+ high yesterday.
  • Euro attempts to consolidate back on a par with Buck after fleeting if not false break below.
  • Yuan nurses losses after further depreciation on growth concerns and latest Covid lockdowns -Usd/Cnh and Usd/Cny slip from overnight peaks circa 6.7840 and 6.7690 respectively.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds back off following further retracement from lows on less hawkish Fed vibes that prompted bull re-steepening
  • Bunds sub-153.00 vs new 153.80 WTD peak, Gilts under 116.00 from 116.39 and 10 year T-note midway between 118-29+/118-13 stalls
  • BTPs stage impressive recovery to 124.30 from 121.96 trough on Thursday awaiting next chapter in Italian political drama

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are firmer, tracking sentiment, but cognizant of the Saudi-Biden meeting though an immediate production increase is not anticipated; WTI +USD 0.20/bbl.
  • The US is not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil production, US eyes the next OPEC+ meeting, according to a US official cited by Reuters.
  • UAE says it wants more stable oil markets, will abide by OPEC+ decision; idea of a confrontational approach re. Iran is not something they buy into, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold remains pressured near, but yet to breach, the USD 1700/oz handle; despite a pull-back in the USD as sentiment turns incrementally more constructive.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: June Import Price Index YoY, est. 11.4%, prior 11.7%; MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.6%
    • June Export Price Index YoY, est. 19.9%, prior 18.9%; MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 2.8%
  • 08:30: June Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.9%, prior -0.3%
    • June Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.5%
    • June Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • June Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0%
  • 08:30: July Empire Manufacturing, est. -2.0, prior -1.2
  • 09:15: June Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%, revised 0.1%
    • June Capacity Utilization, est. 80.8%, prior 79.0%, revised 80.8%
    • June Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
  • 10:00: May Business Inventories, est. 1.4%, prior 1.2%
  • 10:00: July U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50.0, prior 50.0; Expectations, est. 47.0, prior 47.5; Current Conditions, est. 53.7, prior 53.8
    • 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.3%, prior 5.3%
    • 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The last 24 hours have seen another major risk-off move in financial markets, with worries about a potential recession getting fresh support from a weak round of US bank earnings as we kick off the latest results season, followed by much weaker than expected Chinese GDP growth in Q2. To be honest, it was hard to find an asset class where recession signals weren’t flashing red, with yesterday seeing the S&P 500 (-0.30%) lose ground for a 5th consecutive session, peripheral bond spreads widen in Europe, and oil prices seeing their lowest intraday levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

In terms of the specific moves, equities declined across the board yesterday with the S&P 500’s losses led by energy and the more cyclical sectors. Banks were a major contributor to that, and JPMorgan (-3.49%) suffered, hitting a 20-month low after their earnings missed expectations and they announced the suspension of share buybacks, whilst Morgan Stanley (-0.39%) saw investment banking revenue down -55% on the previous year. European equities also suffered significant losses, with the STOXX 600 coming down -1.53% on the day.

However, the final losses by the US close were far from where they had been at the open, with the S&P 500 recovering from intraday losses of -2.11% after the FOMC’s resident hawks walked back the prospects of a super-sized 100bps hike in July, and signalled that a 75bp increase remained preferable despite the CPI beat. Tech shares were a particular beneficiary, and the NASDAQ managed to eke out a +0.03% gain by the close as a result. In terms of the comments, Governor Waller said that “with the CPI data in hand, I support another 75-basis point increase”. However, he did say that if upcoming retail sales and housing data were “materially stronger than expected it would make me lean towards a larger hike”. And then St Louis Fed President Bullard was quoted in a Nikkei interview that he “would advocate 75 basis points again at the next meeting.” In response, futures dialled back their expectations for a 100bp move, with pricing moving down from a peak of +94bps not long before Waller’s remarks came out, to +82.5bps by the close of trade.

Those remarks helped trigger a recovery among US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield falling back from an intraday high of 3.27% to end the day at 3.13%, and this morning it’s fallen further to 3.12%. Yield curves also steepened on the back of the remarks, although the 2s10s curve (+4.9bps yesterday) still remains well in inversion territory at -18.1bps as we go to press. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +2.6bps yesterday to 2.96%, although this morning have also fallen back to 2.94%. Today we’ll get further comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, St Louis Fed President Bullard and San Francisco President Daly, which will be important as today is the last day before the FOMC’s blackout period begins ahead of their next meeting, so all eyes will be on their thoughts about a 100bps move.

Over in Europe, Italian assets lost significant ground yesterday amidst ongoing political turmoil in the country. Prime Minister Draghi tried to tender his resignation after the Five Star Movement boycotted a confidence vote in the Senate, saying that “The loyalty agreement that was the foundation of my government has gone missing”, but President Mattarella rejected it, and it’s uncertain what exactly will happen next. Draghi is set to address parliament next week, although early elections remain a possibility if an agreement is unable to be reached. In terms of the market reaction, Italy’s FTSE MIB underperformed all the other major European indices, with a -3.44% decline that leaves the index at its lowest level since November 2020 just before Pfizer announced their positive vaccine news. Meanwhile the spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds widened +7.7bps to 206bps yesterday, which is their highest level in nearly a month. That theme of widening spreads was echoed on the credit side too, where iTraxx Crossover widened +22.2bps to 626bps, which is its highest level since April 2020. Yields on 10yr bunds themselves were up +3.3bps.

That negative tone has persisted in Asia overnight after China’s Q2 GDP data showed economic growth slowed to just +0.4% year-on-year in Q2 (vs. +1.2% expected). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, there was even a -2.6% contraction (vs. -2.0% expected), which marks the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic started. The data for June alone was better however, with retail sales up +3.1% year-on-year (vs. +0.3% expected), and industrial production up +3.9% year-on-year (vs. +4.0% expected). Separately, China have reported their highest number of daily Covid-19 cases in 7 weeks, with 432 infections yesterday, of which 165 were in Guangxi province. A number of equity indices have lost ground against that backdrop, including the CSI 300 (-0.05%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.24%) and the Hang Seng (-1.19%), although the Kospi (+0.22%) and the Nikkei (+0.58%) have advanced, whilst Brent crude oil prices are back above $100/bbl. US and European equity futures are also pointing to a positive start, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.32%), the NASDAQ 100 (+0.41%) and the DAX (+0.99%) all up.

Yesterday’s other data releases didn’t exactly help sentiment either, with US producer price inflation beating expectations as well at a monthly +1.1% (vs. +0.8% expected), although core inflation did fall to +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected). That pushed the headline year-on-year PPI reading up to +11.3% (vs. +10.7% expected), and core fell to +8.2% as expected. Separately, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through July 9 came in at 244k (vs. 235k expected), which is their highest level since November. Furthermore, the 4-week moving average of claims rose to 235.75k, which was its highest level since December. Instead, the main positive news came from the continuing claims data for the week through July 2, which fell to 1331k (vs. 1380k expected).

Here in the UK, the second ballot of Conservative MPs took place yesterday as they select their next leader and the country’s next Prime minister. Former Chancellor Sunak remained in the lead with 101 votes, but trade minister Penny Mordaunt maintained her momentum with an increase to 83 votes, whilst Foreign Secretary Truss won 64 votes. There are now just 5 candidates remaining with the next ballot scheduled for Monday, and there are also a couple of TV debates taking place before then, so there’s still the potential for things to change over the weekend.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for June, along with the Empire State manufacturing survey for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Rehn, and the Fed’s Bostic and Bullard. Earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Citigroup. Finally, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will be meeting in Indonesia.

FRIDAY /THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.68 PTS OR 1.64%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 453.49 OR 2.19%    /The Nikkei closed UP 145.08 OR % 0.54.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.74%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7550    /Oil UP TO 97.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 100.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7750 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7693: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

As we outlined to you yesterday, we had a huge run on the banks in the Henan province.

Chinese bank stocks are tumbling swept up in non payment of mortgages as borrowers revolt

(zerohedge)

“The Damage Could Be Huge”: Chinese Banks Tumble, Swept Up In Mortgage Nonpayment Scandal As Borrowers Revolt

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 07:44 AM

On Friday, shares of China’s banks extended their slide to a two-year low amid fears widespread mortgage non-payments would spark contagion within the banking sector (see “China On Verge Of Violent Debt Jubilee As “Disgruntled” Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages“) even after the local banking and insurance regulator said it will maintain continuity and stability of financing policies for the real estate sector.

China Central Television said on its WeChat page that the regulator will guide financial institutions to participate in risk disposals based on market conditions, after researcher China Real Estate Information Corp. reported that home buyers had stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, spurring concerns that the quality of home loans is in rapid decline and could culminate in a 2007-like credit/housing bubble blow up.

Still, as Bloomberg Markets Live reporter Ye Xie writes, the grassroots movement of Chinese homebuyers boycotting mortgage payments isn’t exactly akin to the US subprime crisis of 2008.  That said, no matter what Beijing does to address the latest chapter in China’s housing crisis drama, banks are likely to share the burden.

In the wake of a surging number of homebuyers who refuse to pay mortgages on construction projects that have stalled, China’s banking regulators said Thursday that they are coordinating with other agencies to support local governments in working to ensure the delivery of housing units. Separately, Bloomberg reported that policy makers held emergency meetings with banks to discuss the issue amid concern that it may worsen.

The boycotts raise the risk of mortgage defaults, a new set of troubles for banks that are already squeezed by exposure to ailing property developers. Mortgages make up almost 20% of total bank loans outstanding, amounting to about 39 trillion yuan ($5.8 trillion).

In a rather panicked note from Morgan Stanley economist Zhipeng Cai (available to pro subscribers), he addresses the topic of widespread mortgage nonpayment and writes that “we estimate 188mn sqm (1.7mn units) are at risk. We expect local governments will be urged to help completion, but a national bazooka solution remains difficult in near term.”

His warning: “Non-linearity is the key to watch.”

To others, however, such as Xie, this is an exaggeration. According to the Bloomberg reporter, “it’s reasonable to argue that this is unlikely the start of something as bad as the US subprime crisis. Unlike lending to developers, mortgages have been regarded as the safest assets on banks’ balance sheets, as Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ, pointed out. Mortgage defaults have been rare, and rising home prices over the years have increased the value of banks’ collateral.”

Some data: the average non-performing mortgage-loan ratio of the six largest banks, which accounted for 68% of China’s total home loans, was only 0.38% in 2021, compared with an NPL ratio of 2.73% for developers, according to Wang’s calculations.

Of course, all of this assumes that the current mortgage-boycott movement can be quickly nipped in the bud. If not, the potential damage could be huge. Nomura’s economist Lu Ting and his colleagues estimated that about 4.4 trillion yuan worth of mortgages made between the end of 2020 and March of 2022 may be tied to those home projects that have been stalled or slow in being built.

Understandably, Chinese banks have gotten hammered in recent days. The CSI bank index fell more than 4% over the past two days to the lowest since March 2020. Their price-to-book ratio has dropped to an all-time low of 0.61, suggesting investors believe a significant part of the banking system’s assets are impaired.

At the same time, the CSI 300 Financials Index slipped as much as 1.2% on Friday, and is set for an 11th session of declines. Of course, the worse it gets, the more likely Beijing will have no choice but to unleash a powerful releveraging bazooka, even if it has to do so kicking and screaming.

Indeed, as Xie correctly concludes, “the government is likely to step in sooner rather than later as the mortgage boycotts start to undermine social stability. Either banks have to chip in to provide cheap funds for developers to complete projects, or they have to allow homebuyers to delay their payments. Neither is an attractive option.”

What is the worst case scenario? Here we go back to the “non-linearity kicking in” case suggested by Morgan Stanley:

Home-buyer confidence weakens further from a low starting point, leading to further deterioration in property sales. This may force more developers, even relatively strong ones today, to suspend unfinished projects, furthering the downtrend. In the meantime, housing prices may continue to fall, exacerbating the downward spiral. Furthermore, the stress in the housing sector could spread to the broader economy, given the extensive inter-sector linkages, while being magnified by the financial system.

In short: a self-reinforcing downward cascade which ends in either a historical crash of the world’s largest asset…

… or a state bailout. Here are the two most likely policy responses according to Morgan Stanley:

  • Damage control: Local governments will likely be called upon to mobilize resources on a by-project basis, possibly with the help of SOEs and LGFVs, to kick-start suspended projects, signaling to the public that housing completion is the over-arching priority. SOE developers may be encouraged to conduct M&A activities, taking over stalled projects.
  • Reining in systemic risk beyond the near term: Policy makers will likely need to send a clear and strong signal that they stand ready to be the “rescuer of the last resort” to rein in systemic risks. Plausible moves include more meaningful demand stimulus, more explicit guarantees on quality developers, or (less likely) a TARP-like program. Translation: a massive firehose of liquidity and credit is about to be unleashed.

One final though: similar to crypto lenders which generously handed out 20% DeFi interest until it all blew up spectacularly in one giant, cross-linked ponzi scheme, so China’s 5%+ mortgage rates had been an extremely lucrative business for banks. It’s now payback time.

END

special thanks to G for sending this to us:

Nearly one billion Chinese citizens roasting in scorching heatwave

(zerohedge)

Nearly 1 Billion Chinese Roast In Scorching Heatwave

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 08:45 AM

A massive heatwave has covered large swaths of China, including Shanghai, Southwest China’s Sichuan Province, East China’s Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, affecting nearly one billion people. 

At least 76 national weather stations recorded high temperatures that exceeded 108 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday, according to the National Climate Center. The highest temperature recorded was 111.5 degrees Fahrenheit in Lingshou, in North China’s Hebei Province.

“The prolonged heatwaves have threatened crops and people’s lives and pushed China’s power usage to record-breaking levels. Despite the challenges, key industries in China have not experienced power cuts and the Chinese government has been taking measures, including drawing up off-peak power use plans, and helping farmers install more cooling machines,” the state-owned mouthpiece Global Times.

However, South China Morning Post reports some factories in the Zhejiang Province have been asked to restrict power usage during peak demand hours to keep the power grid stable. 

zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19 in Chinese cities hammered the world’s second-largest economy. And now, a dangerous heatwave has the potential to cause even more economic distress. 

Prof Faith Chan of the University of Nottingham in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo explained to The Guardian the extreme weather is no surprise and said,“the reason behind this year’s heatwave is the two anticyclones, including the Western Pacific subtropical high from the sea and the one formed on the Persian Plateau which has moved to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.” 

Besides China, extreme weather, such as heatwaves and droughts, is present in the US, Europe, and India. 

Some temporary relief could arrive in China’s eastern and southern coastal regions by this weekend into early next week, Chen Tao, chief weather forecaster for the China Meteorological Administration, wrote on WeChat.

Is the world on fire?

Coal-fired power accounts for roughly 60% of China’s total electricity generation (2021 figures). We wonder if their grid is more reliable than the shaky grids of California and Texas that rely on an abundance of unreliable green technologies. 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

German unrest risks rise as power prices rise and squeeze households

(zerohedge)

Social Unrest Risks Rise As German Power Prices Squeeze Households

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Energy inflation is out of control in Germany as Russian natural gas supplies plunge as maintenance work begins on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Russia has been throttling Europe’s energy supplies since late 2021, and new concerns mount supplies could be halted after the scheduled end of the maintenance work later this month. One official has already warned if energy prices continue to soar, social unrest risks will flourish. 

Reuters spoke with the managing director of the municipal energy supplier “eins” in Chemnitz, Roland Warner, who warned the average household power bill is set to triple ahead of winter. 

“We must help average households and set an upper limit [price caps] for energy costs,” Warner said, noting annual bills of 1,500 euros could rise to 4,700 euros by October.

He warned that households crushed by the worst inflation in decades and unrelenting rise in power bills could incite social unrest: “If we get social unrest, the state won’t be able to cope.”

Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany’s energy regulator, believes Russia is throttling Europe’s energy supplies. He told CNBC last week: “We cannot rule out the possibility that gas transport will not be resumed afterward for political reasons.” 

Germany is a hotspot for energy discussions because it has Europe’s largest economy and population and is the continent’s biggest customer of Russian NatGas. The problem Germany faces ultimately spills over into the rest of Europe.  

Meanwhile, Energy minister Robert Habeck has denounced calls for price caps, saying the government cannot offset soaring energy costs because that would send a message to households and businesses to continue consuming instead of conserving. 

This is happening as European governments scramble to fill underground storage facilities with NatGas supplies ahead of winter. Supplies are already below average for this time of year, and shuttering Nord Stream 1 has increased NatGas prices. It could slow the region’s ability to refill storage facilities, a crisis that would mean continued skyrocketing energy bills for households and emergency measures from policymakers. 

The English-language Deutsche Welle has also reported the alarming situation of many German households already rationing hot water and electricity. Other local media outlets predict the squeeze on the working-class population could result in social instability.

END

We warned you that this was coming: Uniper warns of insolvency within days. It has started to use stored gas for the winter to help with summer needs.

(zerohedge)

German Energy Giant Warns Of Insolvency “Within Days”, Starts Draining Gas From Storage

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 12:30 PM

Dear Biden administration: for an example of a real emergency that justifies draining a commodity reserve – and not just midterm elections which Democrats will lose in a historic rout – read on.

German energy giant and distressed nat gas utility Uniper, which is among the companies most exposed to Russian natural gas, has started using gas it was storing for the winter after Russia cut deliveries to Europe, increasing pressure on Berlin as the German energy giant needs to be rescued “in a few days.”

The country’s top buyer of Russian gas started withdrawing fuel from storage sites to supply its customers, the company said in a statement to Bloomberg on Friday. The drawdowns, which began on Monday, will also help the company to save some cash as it has been forced to pay up for gas in the spot market. Meanwhile, flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline remain shut for maintenance.

Harald Seegatz, deputy chairman of the supervisory board, said that Uniper needs urgent help, risking insolvency within days.

“We are currently reducing our own gas volumes in our storage facilities in order to supply our customers with gas and to secure Uniper’s liquidity,” the company said. And judging by the flatlining of German gas storage in inventory, Uniper is not alone in draining reserves.

According to Bloomberg, citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Uniper’s storage sites in Germany are now about 58% full, down from about 60% reached on Sunday. Drawdowns were also made from the company’s storage in Austria, but overall storage levels in Germany’s Alpine neighbor are still showing marginal increases.

As we reported previously, Uniper is majority owned by Finland’s Fortum Oyj, has already said it needs to be rescued by the German government, and it’s negotiating a possible stake and a cash boost. But talks have been difficult, with Berlin and Helsinki yet to agree on who to best rescue the company key for energy security.

Last month, Russia significantly cut gas flows to Europe via its biggest pipeline, a move that forced Uniper and other European energy companies to buy gas at much higher prices in the open market. Faced with a shortage of cash, Uniper has been tapping gas in inventories since the start of the week, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

“It is clear that Uniper cannot wait weeks, but needs help in a few days,” said Seegatz, adding that insolvency can happen “within days.”

“We cannot wait for weeks to do something,” Seegatz told Bloomberg in a phone interview. “That would have a huge impact on the company and also on the employees. The government said it wants to avoid this situation, but the fact is that we cannot lose time.”

In other words, Germany is facing a total industrial collapse; meanwhile, the media continues to repeat the increasingly more laughable propaganda that Putin is losing the war.

Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach last Friday warned Uniper was not able to fill up storage anymore. He also said the company could be forced to raise prices for consumers and eventually reduce supply.

As we noted recently, European energy companies usually store gas in the summer and use the fuel during winter, when demand for heating surges. Tapping gas in storage sites in the middle of the summer increases the risk that Germany won’t have enough supplies when it needs it the most.

It also makes it harder for the government to reach its target of filling storage sites by 90% by November. Germany has already triggered two stages of its gas emergency plan, and could enact the last step if there’s a clear deterioration in the supply picture. Such a move could force industries to ration gas, and lead to an immediate recession in both Germany and Europe, as well as pushing the euro deep below parity as the ECB would be unable to hike rates in such a dire economic situation.

end

ITALY

Political drama heats up as Draghi resigns and yields are set to rise

(zerohedge)

Political Drama Is Haunting Italy’s Market Again

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 08:44 AM

By Michael Msika and Jan-Patrick Barnert, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and analysts

Italian stocks — already the worst among Europe’s major markets this year — can now add a political crisis to the list of its headwinds, which include economic slowdown, soaring inflation and looming ECB rate hikes.

The FTSE MIB has fallen about 5.6% this week, more than twice the drop of the Stoxx 600, following the reemergence of political turmoil which has led to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resignation, a demand later rejected by President Mattarella to avoid a major crisis. The next few days will be critical, with a likely new vote of confidence that will decide Draghi’s fate.

That’s cemented Italy’s position as the worst-performing major index in Europe this year, down 26%, and means the country’s equities are now trading at a record 35% forward P/E valuation discount to European peers.

“While a political solution that keeps the Draghi government in place remains possible, the possibility of early elections is growing,” says Equita analyst Domenico Ghilotti, who sees negative consequences for Italian assets from the turmoil.

Ghilotti says political chaos may lead to wider yield spreads, which is negative for Italian banks, and could also put some asset sales and M&A — such as at Telecom Italia and Rai Way — at risk, given the government’s involvement. Also in danger is the 19 billion euros in European funds expected by Italy this year as part of its post-Covid recovery plan.

In this backdrop, it’s not surprising that demand for hedging is rising. The total put volume on the FTSE MIB has soared this month, in contrast with that of the Euro Stoxx 50. Although the move isn’t dramatic, it could mean traders are positioning for trouble ahead for Italian stocks.

Some political parties have already called for a snap election. “For BTPs, politically-induced spread widening could occur earlier than we thought, especially given rich valuations versus broader fundamentals, perhaps testing the preventative clout of the ECB’s anti-fragmentation tool due next week,” say Citi analysts Aman Bansal and Saumesh Dutta.

Bond spreads have a big impact on Italian banks due to their large exposure to the nation’s debt. That’s also a drag on the overall market, as lenders make up almost a third of the FTSE MIB. The benchmark’s relative performance had trailed the tightening in bond spreads in 2020 and 2021, but this gap has now narrowed, providing less of a cushion.

“Volatile bond markets could raise funding costs for Italian banks, and potentially hamper bond issuance activity,” according to Scope research analyst Alessandro Boratti, who notes that seven major Italian banks held about 115 billion euros of Italian sovereign debt in addition to around 102 billion euros in state-backed loans at the beginning of the year. Italian banks have significantly underperformed European peers this year.

“Even if the worst-case scenario of early elections is avoided, this crisis shows that political instability remains very much a structural feature of the Italian institutional landscape, and may result in some repricing of country risk on the expectation that the Draghi Government may be challenged again before the end of its term,” says Silvia Merler, head of ESG and policy research at Algebris Investments.

end

Two More Gone, The Prime Minister of Estonia and the Prime Minister of Italy Tender Their Resignations – The Last Refuge

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:52 PM (2 minutes ago)
to

A storm approaches
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/14/two-more-gone-the-prime-minister-of-estonia-and-the-prime-minister-of-italy-tender-their-resignations/

end

FRANCE

Citizens of France will not be happy with this: Streetlights will be turned off in response to the energy crisis

(Watson/SummitNews)

Macron Announces Street Lights Will Be Turned Off In Response To Energy Crisis

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 12:10 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Despite claiming that “France has little dependence on Russian gas,” President Macron announced that public lighting would be turned off at night to save energy.

Macron made the comments during a televised interview to commemorate Bastille Day.

Asserting that “the summer, early autumn will be very hard” for French people due to the war in Ukraine, Macron said that a total cutoff of Russian gas was looking very likely.

In response, French citizens are being told to engage in energy “sobriety” and prepare for even higher food prices as Macron announced public lighting will be turned off at night in some places.

“From now on, I will ask public bodies, and all companies that can, to consume less,” said Macron.

“We will create a program and try to use lighting less in the evenings. We are launching a load reduction and sobriety program.”

“We have to prepare for a scenario in which we have to give up Russian gas completely,” he added.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1547889610763616257&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fmacron-announces-street-lights-will-be-turned-response-energy-crisis&sessionId=3dc6ff17a0a55583b927c944f89aded1da9fa325&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=3235bd17138fa%3A1657578976990&width=550px

Despite these rather drastic pronouncements, the French President still insisted that “France has little dependence on Russian gas.”

He also claimed that the energy crisis wasn’t caused by sanctions on Russia because “energy prices started to rise even before the war.”

“We must all prepare for the fact that the war will last. The summer and the beginning of autumn will probably be very tough,” said Macron.

As we previously highlighted, the crisis is also being felt keenly in Germany, where citizens are busy stockpiling firewood as they are told to take fewer showers, drive less and deal with freezing temperatures by wearing more layers of clothing.

Cities across Germany are also planning to use sports arenas and exhibition halls as ‘warm up spaces’ this winter to help chilly citizens who are unable to afford skyrocketing energy costs.

Still, at least they support ‘the current thing’. Maybe that will help keep them warm.

*  *  *

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END

EUROPE/DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Europe has bee in importing huge amounts of LNG and thus not enough LNG to developing nations and thus they are having blackouts

(zerohedge)

Europe’s Insatiable Thirst For LNG Is Causing Blackouts In Developing Countries

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • Driven by fears that Russia may cut supply to Europe, the EU imported more LNG from the U.S. than pipeline gas from Russia for the first time ever.
  • This insatiable thirst for natural gas has driven prices so high that developing nations can no longer afford the vital commodity.
  • While Europe’s LNG imports have soared by 49% since the start of the year, Pakistan’s imports have fallen by 15% and the country is now suffering blackouts.

In June, the European Union imported more liquefied natural gas from the United States than pipeline gas from Russia for the first time ever

The unprecedented shift came as the EU scrambled to fill up its gas storage facilities ahead of the next heating season in fear Russia could turn off the gas tap at any moment. It also pushed LNG prices sky-high, making it unaffordable for developing countries.

“Because of the Ukraine war, every single molecule that was available in our region has been purchased by Europe, because they’re trying to reduce their dependence on Russia,” Pakistan’s Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said earlier this month as quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Pakistan has been suffering from blackouts because of insufficient LNG supplies that the country needs to keep its power plants going. And the reason for the insufficient supplies is that Europe can pay more for the commodity, so traders are sending their cargos there, including cargos originally destined for Pakistan and other Asian countries.

According to data from Wood Mackenzie cited by the Wall Street Journal, while Europe’s LNG imports soared 49 percent from the start of the year to mid-June, Pakistan’s imports fell by 15 percent during the same period, those to India shed 16 percent, and China’s LNG imports fell by more than a fifth.

“The European gas crisis is sucking the world dry of LNG,” Valery Chow, head of Asia Pacific gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, told the WSJ.

“Emerging markets in Asia have borne the brunt of this and there is no end in sight.”

Not everyone seems to be quite so pessimistic. Reuters reported in late June that demand for LNG from Asia is on the rebound, with one analyst forecasting a decline in European Union LNG imports over the second half of the year.

“There has been a growing imbalance between Asia and Europe, with European stocks growing at the expense of Asian inventories,” Reuters quoted Capra Energy managing director Tamir Druz as saying.

“We expect LNG imports for the EU, Turkey and the UK over the second half of 2022 to be lower than what we’ve seen in the first six months, with a drop of about 16%, or 10 million tonnes,” Druz added.

“Asia is already in preparation for winter, with LNG vessels being snapped up on multi-month charters, as charterers fear being caught without shipping capacity during crunch months,” said another analyst, Kaushal Ramesh from Rystad Energy.

That might be the case, but Pakistan last week failed to attract any bids in a $1-billion tender for liquefied natural gas, the WSJ noted in its report, and India has turned to more coal-fired generation to keep the lights on. In Bangladesh, like in Pakistan, blackouts have had to be enforced.

Meanwhile, long-term LNG contracts are gaining popularity as buyers realize it might be a good idea to lock in current prices, as high as they might be, to avoid further price shocks that are quite probable as the global gas market follows in the footsteps of oil with demand ahead of supply.

China, the world’s biggest LNG importer after it overtook Japan last year, closed 23 such long-term contracts in that year, Nikkei Asia reported this week. This brought the share of spot-market LNG purchases down to just 39 percent of total LNG imports. 

Europe, on the other hand, has been notoriously reluctant to commit to long-term contracts for the delivery of hydrocarbons because of its energy transition plans. Now it may need to reconsider this reluctance: Qatar has informed European buyers that if they want Qatari LNG, they would need to make a long-term commitment.

U.S. LNG exporters are also fans of long-term deals, and they have been scoring points with European buyers. German utility EnBW last month sealed a deal with Venture Global for long-term LNG supply. French Engie inked a long-term supply contract with NextDecade earlier this year after initially walking out on the deal because of emission concerns.

These long-term contracts are very likely more bad news for developing nations that can hardly afford the rates being negotiated at a time of tight supply. This means that after draining the spot market of LNG cargos, wealthy Europe will now be locking up long-term supply, too, thanks to its deeper pockets.

These deeper pockets, however, mean that European buyers would need to continue paying a premium to Asian prices in order for the LNG to keep flowing in their direction. The spot market is still king. And it will remain tight as Russia closes Nord Stream 1 for scheduled maintenance today for ten days.

Prices might let up a little when – or if – the EU manages to fill up its gas storage facilities to the level planned earlier this year, which is 80 percent by November. Until then, there is little hope for relief among developing countries that chose to join the energy mainstream led by Europe and switch from coal to less polluting gas.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Dr Paul Alexander

I repeat, NIH, CDC, FDA, Moderna, and Pfizer high officials met me secretly at HHS 2020 in Washington & on walks on DC mall, telling me they feared for careers & safety; told me do not stop!

Officials met me to say they read what I write & say at HHS to Fauci & NIH & FDA & they agree & in fear of safety to speak out but know the vaccines have no clinical data, don’t work, harmful for kids

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 15

They told me not to stop what I was doing speaking out and writing the FDA for they all knew of my communications warning about the vaccines. They said that they would never give the vaccines from Moderna or Pfizer to their children, ever and how unsafe they knew they would be for kids, and even pregnant women. They told me that pregnant women were at risk from the vaccines and the developing child. They were angered as they did not have the proper safety data (e.g. too short duration follow-up, small sample sizes etc.) and did not understand why their agency heads were going ahead with the vaccines. This was about early Fall 2020.

They were horrified by the terrible clinical data that did not support the vaccines. They felt the FDA was no longer working on behalf of the American people. They even projected that the vaccines would be imperfect and would drive potential mutations etc. They were very scared and met me repeatedly to tell me their fears and how these vaccines must never be given to children. The key complaint was that too many corners were cut in the rush to bring the vaccine. They said that if the public knew what was being done by Pfizer and Moderna they would be outraged and likely get the vaccine development to stop.

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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They also said that the research and lockdowns and school closures was very clear and they were stunned at what was happening societally for they knew the lockdowns and closures were hurting the population, even killing people. They were horrified at the decisions to continue the lockdowns.

They told me they were thinking of quitting, many were. They were ashamed to be working at FDA and CDC and NIH and were mostly concerned about the poor quality and very sub-optimal data being used to make critical decisions. They told me no one at higher levels e.g. directors were listening to any concerns about the terrible data and safety issues.

end


GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES//

This will not be good for the dollar as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt plan to join the BRICS

(zerohedge_

“Preparing To Apply For Membership” – Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt Plan To Join BRICS

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 08:26 AM

BRICS is the acronym coined over two decades ago that is associated with five major emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS members account for over 40% of the global population and nearly a quarter of global GDP. The expansion of BRICS could be imminent as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are in discussions to join the group of emerging market economies. 

“All these countries [Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt] have shown their interest in joining [BRICS] and are preparing to apply for membership. I believe this is a good step, because expansion is always looked upon favorably, it will definitely bolster BRICS’ global influence,” BRICS International Forum President Purnima Anand told Russian newspaper Izvestia

Anand said that the group’s 14th summit last month in China held expansion talks. Adding Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt could open up a new era for global development as they would boost multilateral cooperation and comes at a time when the US and its Western partners are rebelling against globalization. 

In May, Chinese President Xi Jinping said BRICS members have to “reject Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, and work together to build a global community of security for all.”  

“I hope that these countries will join the BRICS quite shortly, as all the representatives of core members are interested in expansion. So it will come very soon,” Anand added.

None of the BRICS leaders have publicly condemned Russian President Putin for his invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. 

Huang Yanzhong, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently told Al Jazeera that BRICS is a “kind of diplomatic counteroffensive by China to both the revival of NATO and the increase in Indo-Pacific mechanisms that are designed to keep its power in check.” 

The announcement comes when President Biden is scheduled to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) without Saudi King Salman present. We correctly pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s intention to join BRICS would be announced ahead of the Biden and MbS meeting. 

The future and what appears to be an imminent expansion of BRICS is more evidence the world is transitioning into a multi-polar world that will challenge the US’ dollar-based system for global trade.

END

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Vaccine Impact


Politicians and Politics do Not Rule the World: Corporations, Financial Institutions and Bankers do and They are Implementing a New World Order
July 14, 2022 4:02 pm

Boris Johnson was recently removed from office in the UK, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has just fled the country in disgrace, and in the U.S. the corporate media has turned against U.S. President Joe Biden, now that his son’s penis is probably the most downloaded image on the Internet among photos of his pedophilia ways, and Biden’s days in office seem to be coming to an end, possibly sooner rather than later. But anyone who still believes that these high-ranking politicians have any real power over national or international affairs, and that by replacing them with other politicians will solve economic or social problems, is not living in reality in terms of who controls the affairs of this world. Money, or financial power, rules the world, and since the start of the industrial age that began after WW II, that group of people at the top who occupy the leadership of banks, financial institutions and large corporations has dramatically shrunk, and the time has come for them to make their ultimate move, to take over the world’s financial system and implement a New World Order where any resemblance to individual liberty and principles of democracy are completely swept away for totalitarianism and tyranny. In the U.S., for example, these Corporate Globalists have their own separate legal system that prevents them from facing justice, their top banks employ as many software engineers to spy on their employees as Google and Microsoft employ, and they have gotten away with rigging the markets illegally for so long now, that they are now in the process of doing away with Wall Street altogether and implementing a new national stock exchange called MEMX, where people will work remotely instead of on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City. Technology, and I am defining “technology” here as the advent of the PC (personal computer) and public use of the Internet (which was developed by the military) in the 1980s and early 1990s, is by and large what has allowed them to gain so much power, but that technology may also be their Achilles heal and downfall – but that is a topic for another day and another article. Most of the public is aware of the World Economic Forum (WEF) where many of these Globalists gather, but Brandon Smith has published an article today exposing another organization that is less well known, and possibly even more influential, the “Council For Inclusive Capitalism.” This is not an organization that you want to be ignorant about, if you want to fight Globalism and their plans for a New World Order.
Read More…

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The Federal Reserve’s Crimes Against the American People Go Unpunished
July 14, 2022 4:48 pm

In what is likely the least surprising news headline of the day, The Federal Reserve’s Watchdog has cleared Chair Jerome Powell and former Vice Chair Richard Clarida of any wrongdoing in their trading activity. “We did not find evidence to substantiate the allegations that former Vice Chair Clarida or you violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office,” Inspector General Mark Bialek said in a letter to Powell dated June 11 and published Thursday. Yesterday, Senator Sherrod Brown, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, along with two of his fellow Senators on that Committee (Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock) and two additional Senators who do not serve on that Committee (Jeff Merkley and Kirsten Gillibrand) sent a stunning letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The overall thrust of the letter suggested that the Fed had attempted to quiet public outrage over the Fed’s trading scandal by issuing new trading conduct rules for Fed officials but had failed to put the force of law behind those rules or set up a proper chain of command. But three sentences in the letter also strongly suggest that the Fed Chairman is actually hampering the investigation of the trading scandal, which was referred by Powell to the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General rather than to the Securities and Exchange Commission or Department of Justice, which should be involved in any serious insider trading investigation. Those three sentences read as follows: “Additionally, we are disappointed that the Federal Reserve has refused to provide additional information regarding the full scope of the trading scandal…” The use of the word, “refused” has a strong aroma of obstruction. Next is the sentence: “…we also repeat our request for your cooperation with members of Congress and the Federal Reserve’s Office of the Inspector General as we seek to understand the full depth of the Fed’s trading scandal.” The use of the words “repeat our request for your cooperation” strongly infers that Fed Chairman Powell has withheld his cooperation. And, finally, there is this sentence: “Recent reports also reveal that the Federal Reserve failed to require updated financial disclosures from the former presidents of the Dallas and Boston Reserve Banks upon termination of their positions, which is inconsistent with the financial disclosure requirements for Board officials.” That last sentence refers to Robert Kaplan, the President of the Dallas Fed, and Eric Rosengren, the President of the Boston Fed, both of whom announced on September 27 of last year that they would be stepping down as the trading scandal drew public outrage.
Read More..

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(DE GROOT)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Does not seem that sanctions are working

Saudis double imports for heavily discounted Russian diesel and other fuel produces banned by many countries in the west

(zerohedge)

Saudis Double Russia Crude Imports As It Prepares For BRICS Inclusion

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 01:05 PM

Saudi Arabia has a thirst for heavily discounted Russian diesel and other fuel products banned by many countries in the West.

The world’s largest oil exporter more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil in the second quarter to supply power generation stations to meet surging cooling demand this summer and allow the kingdom’s crude exports to increase.

Western sanctions forced Russia to discount fuel oils on spot markets, which has increased demand in the East, not just from the Saudis but also from China and India. 

Energy trade data provided by Reuters shows Saudis imported 647,000 tons (48,000 barrels per day) of fuel oils from Russia in the second quarter — up from 320,000 tons in the same quarter last year. 

The surge in the Russia-Saudi energy trade (also detailed in “Middle East Ramps Up Imports Of Shunned Russian Fuels”) comes as BRICS International Forum President Purnima Anand told Russian newspaper Izvestia that Saudis are planning to join. That would boost multilateral cooperation between BRICS, including Saudis, meaning they wouldn’t cave to the US demands to restrict Russian energy imports. 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has unleashed a barrage of financial sanctions against Russia to isolate it from the global trading system to reduce trading revenue — all of which have backfired — and allowed Moscow to reap record oil revenues. 

President Biden will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) without Saudi King Salman on Friday (the same day Anand announced Saudis are preparing to apply for membership). It’s expected that no public announcements on increasing oil supply will be made, according to Bloomberg sources. 

Biden’s meeting with MbS appears to be a waste of time and more for optics. The fundamental point behind the meeting to increase crude production won’t transpire into anything meaningful. Biden needs to work on expanding the capacity of refined oil products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, though much of that is out of his control and will take years. 

The point is that Saudis need cheap Russian fuel oils and plan to join an expanding economic club that will distance themselves from Western countries and aligns them more with Russia and China. The rise of BRICS and the possible inclusion of Saudis would outline the US’ waning control over the international order. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

Now we have Panama having inflation protests.

(zerohedge)

Inflation Protests, Strikes In Panama Grow Larger Despite Gas Price Cap

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 06:00 PM

In yet another example of the destabilizing effects of inflation, economically-disruptive protests and strikes in Panama have entered a second week, despite extraordinary moves by President Laurentino Cortizo. 

What began with a strike by teachers fed up with a higher cost of commuting has mushroomed into a wider movement with more aggressive tactics, including blockades of Panamanian ports and major highways. Panama’s Maritime Chamber said the highway roadblocks have caused “financial losses in the millions for the maritime and logistics industries.”

Construction workers announced they would impose a 24-hour strike on Wednesday. Panama Canal unions voiced their solidarity, but are prohibited by law from striking themselves. Students, and impoverished indigenous people from the western part of country, have also joined the protests.

In a national address on Monday, Cortizo announced he would extend a freeze on gas prices to all consumers, fixing the price at $3.95 a gallon, which is 24% lower than the end-of-June price. (The Panamanian economy uses the U.S. dollar.) As originally instituted in May, the fuel-price freeze only applied to public transportation. The price relief is to be enabled by $150 million in subsidies over the next three months. 

Blaming inflation on the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Cortizo also promised to pursue price caps on 10 basic goods, including pasta, beef loin, vegetable oil and canned sardines. That move will likely prove to be a short-sighted and destructive act of desperation: History teaches us that price caps inevitably lead to product shortages…and bare shelves cause more unrest than high prices.  

Protest leaders say even those moves aren’t enough. Several unions have said the mayhem will continue until the price of gas is slashed by another 25%, to below $3.00 a gallon, along with an economy-wide reduction of prices. 

With unrest growing and bringing what some observers say is the largest wave of protests in the country in 30 years, the Panamanian government agreed to talks with protestors that will take place on Thursday afternoon, moderated by Archbishop Jose Domingo Ulloa.  

Saul Mendez, secretary-general of Suntracs, Panama’s principal construction union, told International Business Times that it’s imperative that the government freeze or cut the cost of electricity, medicine, fuel and food—and that it needed to bring about a general increase in wages too.   

On Tuesday, the government announced that public institutions would start cutting payrolls by 10% and reduce other spending as well. While fiscally responsible and perhaps addressing concerns about government corruption, sending public workers into unemployment will broaden the ranks of those who are displeased with the Panamanian government. Union leaders have already condemned the move as certain to cause “more hunger.” 

While there’s no reports of deaths or injuries so far, tires have been set ablaze and some property damage has been observed. Students in Panama City seized and smashed a police car

On Monday, buses carrying migrants from the Columbian border to the Costa Rican border were damaged when they attempted to bypass a roadblock on the Pan-American Highway. The government pleaded with protestors to allow the buses the freedom to move the migrants northward and beyond Panama. Inflation protestors damaged a police car in Panama City (Rogelio Figueroa/AFP/Getty Images)

“The price of gasoline is overwhelming those of us who have to travel to teach classes in our schools,” Ilbis Rujano, a public school teacher and inflation-protestor told Associated Press. “Besides that, the cost of food rose, which is a hit on the poorest families who have to send their children to school. This can’t be tolerated.”

END

SRI LANKA

The PM who is still in the country appoints generals to restore law and order

(zerohedge)

As Sri Lanka’s President Flees To Paradise Island, Embattled PM Appoints Generals To Restore Law & Order

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 11:44 AM

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, just before he was expected to resign amid mass protests fueled by a crippling economic crisis, embattled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on a military jet from Colombo, bound for the nearby Maldives

Now the protesting masses have breached the prime minister’s office as well, with the army appearing to stand down, days after storming the president’s residence and essentially living there, including swimming in his pool – as now viral video showed – demanding that he must go. “President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his wife left aboard an air force plane bound for the Maldives — and he made his prime minister the acting president in his absence. That appeared to only further roil passions in the island nation,” the AP reports.Image: AP/Pixabay

And now acting president (and Rajapaksa’s prior prime minister) Ranil Wickremesinghe is struggling to restore order on the island-nation of 22 million people, at first declaring a state of emergency and curfew on Wednesday, but then later canceling the orders under pressure as the protests set their sights on him.

Wickremesinghe has reportedly appointed a committee of top military generals and given them the charge to “restore law and order,” according to CNN. The report further said, “The committee will be tasked with issuing commands to troops on the ground and police across the country as they try to maintain order throughout the country, said the source, who requested anonymity to discuss developments not yet publicly announced by the acting president.”

But already, as AP observed, “Thousands of protesters — who had anticipated that Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe would be appointed acting president — rallied outside his office compound and some scaled the walls, as the crowd roared its support and tossed water bottles to those charging in.”

Later it became clear protesters had breached the PM’s offices as dozens were seen on the rooftop shouting from the removal of both the president and prime minister while waiving the national flag.

One protester among many others who spoke to the AP summarized the type of general despair fueling the anger in the streets amid economic collapse and widespread allegations of rampant government corruption and mismanagement among “insiders” ruling the country for their personal enrichment. The protester’s words suggest the demonstrating masses could set their sights on parliament next

“Not only Gotabaya and Ranil, all 225 members of Parliament should go home. Because for the last few decades, family politics have ruined our country,” said Madusanka Perera, a laborer who came to Colombo from the outskirts the day protesters occupied the first government buildings. He lost his job, and his father, a driver, can’t do his because of fuel shortages.

“I’m 29 years old — I should be having the best time of life but instead I don’t have a job, no money and no life,” he said.

The words echo the widespread belief that not only the president who was once celebrated as a “war hero” was draining public coffers for years, but also a network of his relatives.

The debt-laden economy of the tiny South Asian nation has “completely collapsed” as it lacks foreign exchange reserves to import essential items such as food and fuel. Shortages have materialized as the government began rationing goods last month. 

Even though the government has held talks with the IMF, India, China, and Japan for new credit lines and even spoke with Russia about purchasing heavily discounted crude, the country entered a terminal phase where social unrest is spiraling out of control. 

But alas, at this moment at least, Rajapaksa and his family appear to be safe on a paradise island after arriving in the Maldives – able to watch Sri Lanka’s further spiral into chaos from afar.

Meanwhile, there are already calls for the Maldives to reject his ability to find safe-haven there as his motorcade was briefly filmed speeding through the streets of the capital Malé.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.059 UP  0.0033 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 138.69   DOWN 0.285 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1839 DOWN   0.0001

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 53.68 POINTS UP  1.64%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 453.49 PTS OR 2.19% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.74%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 453.49 PTS OR  2.19% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.68 PTS DOWN 1.64% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.74% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 145.03 OR 0.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1705.40

silver:$18.46

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 108.14  DOWN 0.27  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.28%  DOWN 5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.234% up 0     AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.27%// DOWN 5   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.35  DOWN 4   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.121%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0093 UP  0.0067    or 67 basis points

USA/Japan: 138.52 DOWN 0.461  OR YEN UP  46  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1865  UP  0.0024 OR 24  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0087 OR 87 BASIS pts  to 1.3021

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7562  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7664

TURKISH LIRA:  17.39  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.234

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  2.917% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.089 DOWN 2 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.79 DOWN 62   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 126.58 PTS OR  1.80%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 349.65  POINTS OR 2.79%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 124.91 PTS OR 2.11% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 160.30 OR 2.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 400.36PTS OR  1.95%

WTI Oil price 98.17   12: EST

Brent Oil:  101.67  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  57.25  UP 1 AND 9/100        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.121

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0077 UP .0050     OR  50 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1861 UP .0020  or  20 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.53  DOWN 0.444//YEN UP 44 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3034 DOWN 0.0074 (CDN dollar UP 74  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 97.64

Brent OIL:  101.02

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.930 DOWN 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.093  DOWN 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.34

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  57.17   UP 1 & 13/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 658.09 PTS OR 2.15 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 215.23 PTS OR 1.83%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.47 down 1.93 PTS (7.13)%

GLD: 159.00 DOWN 0.33 PTS OR 0.21%

SLV/ 17.19 UP 19 CENTS OR 1.12%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stagflation Scares Slam Stocks & Commodities As Fed Faces Yield-Curve Collapse

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Hotter than expected inflation prints (but UMich expectations tumbled) combined with weak ‘real’ retail sales and industrial production unexpectedly contracting all support the stagflationary narrative and judging by this week’s chaotic swings, traders are confused at what to do.

Commodities are down (recessionary) and confirmed by the long-end of the yield curve (and stocks sinking) as initial claims data suggests the labor market is tightening (recessionary).

Rate-hike expectations are soaring (anti-inflationary) and the yield curve is inverting everywhere (Policy error) as rate-cut expectations are also soaring for next year after The Fed deepens the recession…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 100bps hike in July is higher on the week but well off the highs post-CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a big rebound today (and yesterday afternoon), all the US Majors are lower on the week with The Dow the least ugly horse in the glue factory as Nasdaq underperformed…

None of the sectors closed green on the week with Energy the biggest loser. Financials ripped back higher today, putting a little lipstick on that pig. Staples and Utes were best at unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives outperformed Cyclicals but both were weaker on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

And no, stocks are not pricing in the same trajectory as STIRs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were mixed this week with the short-end higher in yields and the rest of the curve pricing in recession and Fed reaction (2Y +3bps, 30Y -15bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields ended the week back below 3.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

And that massive flattening pushed the yield curve (2s10s) to its most inverted since 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the 6th week in the last 7, closing at its highest since 2002…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed this week with a late-week rebound lifting Ethereum into the green for the week (2nd up-week in a row), but Bitcoin had another down week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rose back above $21k today and Ethereum rose back above $1250…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were down for the 5th straight week, tumbling back – based on the Bloomberg Commodity Index – to pre-Putin-invasion levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tumbled for the 5th straight week, testing back below $1700 – its lowest since Aug 2021 (spike low)…

But gold outperformed silver on the week with the latter at its cheapest to the former since July 2019’s peak…

Source: Bloomberg

NatGas bucked the trend and surged back above $7 this week…

Oil prices fell for the 4th week of the last 5, with WTI closing back below $100

Finally, great news America!! Gas prices are down 31 days straight…

Source: Bloomberg

…it’s just not helping ‘the big guy’ out!

Perhaps it’s because Americans misery is at its highest since Carter was president…

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

Although notional retail sales rose if you take away inflation the real retail sales shrank for the 2nd straight month in June

(zerohedge)

‘Real’ Retail Sales Shrink For Second Straight Month In June

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Despite collapsing consumer sentiment (and real wages slumping), analysts expected retail sales to rebound in June (except the almost omniscient BofA expects a negative print) after the ‘surprise’ drop in May driven by a drop in auto sales. It turns out BofA was wrong for once as headline retail sales rose 1.0% MoM (ahead of the +0.9% expected) – the best month since March…

Source: Bloomberg

Just 3 categories were down in June:

  • Building Material and garden equipment and supplies: -0.9%
  • Health and personal care stores -0.1%
  • General merchandise stores -0.2%

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales are notional, not ‘real’. While adjusting the headline retail sales print for inflation (via CPI) is rough, it gives us some idea of the ‘real’ state of the American consumer’s appetite for buying more stuff (or less). This is the second straight month of contraction in real retail sales (and 3rd of the last 4 months)…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘Control Group’ retail sales print – which feeds GDP – rose 0.8% MoM (almost triple the +0.3% expected).

As Alex Pelle, US economist at Mizuho Financial Group Inc., said in a note last month, “the report implies a very negative inflation-adjusted number on goods consumption, and the real-time GDP nowcasts are likely to be marked down significantly.”

Is the US economy really strong enough to cope with any more rate-hikes?

END

Spending fueled by debt is faltering as savings are running dry

(zerohedge)

Recession Imminent? Spending Fueled By Debt As Savings Run Dry

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 07:20 AM

By Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

The US personal savings rate is near a five-year low as pandemic fiscal stimulus savings run dry. 

But consumers are still spending with credit.

How long can consumers keep spending with revolving credit at the highest level in decades?

The risk is that equity markets have a lot more room to the downside.

The danger is that consumer spending, which drives some 70% of GDP, will soon be tapped out.

Lower spending, lower earnings with lower economic growth, while inflation is still running hot, will likely leave equities nowhere to go but down.

END

Another sign that the USA economy is faltering: USA industrial production unexpectedly tumbles in June

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Tumbles In June

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Despite ISM surveys tanking, analysts expected US Industrial Production to eke out a 0.1% gain in June but they were wrong as output slumped 0.2% MoM (and May was revised lower also). There hasn’t been a weaker month since September 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Only mining kept the headline industrial production print positive.

Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in June, with decreases for durable and nondurable manufacturing of 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Within durable manufacturing, declines of more than 1 percent in primary metals, machinery, and motor vehicles and parts outweighed gains of more than 1 percent in miscellaneous manufacturing and in electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Within nondurable manufacturing, every group except for two posted a decline of at least 0.8 percent; apparel and leather recorded a gain of 2.5 percent, while chemicals registered a dip of 0.1 percent. The index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved down 0.2 percent.

Manufacturing output slipped for the second straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity utilization fell to 80% from 80.3% in May, revised down from 80.8%

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it seems that the market has caught back down to the economy once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Still think the economy can handle a 100bps hike?

end

A biggy!! U. Michigan inflation expectations tumble. Good news for Powell

(zerohedge)

UMich Inflation Expectations Tumble In Early July Data

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 10:03 AM

Thanks to Powell’s comments, the most important number from the UMich sentiment survey now is inflation expectations. As a reminder, the Fed Chair freaked out at last month’s preliminary print of 3.3% (before it was revised lower for the final print). The ‘good’ news for Powell is that Inflation Expectations tumbled in preliminary July data (with medium-term expectations tumbling to just 2.8%)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest 5-10Y Inflation Expectation in 12 months.

Current assessments of personal finances continued to deteriorate, reaching its lowest point since 2011, according to the university’s report.

The headline sentiment indicator was expected to remain flat at 50 – a record low – but rose very modestly to 51.1 driven by a rise in ‘current conditions’ (biggest jump since April 2021) while ‘expectations’ slipped lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations tumbled for both Republicans and Democrats (weakest since Biden admin began) but Independents saw sentiment expectations improve modestly (perhaps as gas prices dropped)…

Roughly half of respondents blame inflation for lowering their living standards, the worst since the 2008 financial crisis..

“Consumers remained in agreement over the deleterious effect of prices on their personal finances,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.  

Will this print back The Fed off 100bps?

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

New York judge rules quarantine rules unconstitutional and illegal

(Robert/EpochTimes)

New York COVID-19 Quarantine Rules Unconstitutional And Illegal: Judge

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

New York Supreme Court judge this month quietly ruled that regulations mandating that people infected with or exposed to highly contagious communicable diseases be quarantined are a violation of state law, declaring them null and void.

The Isolation and Quarantine procedures, known as Rule 2.13, were enacted in February.

Under the rule, “whenever appropriate to control the spread of a highly contagious communicable disease, the State Commissioner of Health may issue and/or may direct the local health authority to issue isolation and/or quarantine orders, consistent with due process of law, to all such persons as the State Commissioner of Health shall determine appropriate.”

Isolations may include those at home, or in residential or temporary housing, subject to what the public health authority issuing the order determines is “appropriate.”

However, the rule notes that “where symptoms or conditions indicate that medical care in a general hospital is expected to be required, the isolation location shall be a general hospital.”

Three Republican state legislators, Sen. George Borrello, assemblyman Chris Tague, and assemblyman Michael Lawler, along with Uniting NYS, filed a lawsuit against Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, Commissioner of Health Mary Bassett, the state’s health department, and the Public Health and Health Planning Council.

Plaintiffs argued that the Isolation and Quarantine procedures were in violation of the New York State Constitution and a violation of the separation of powers.

“It’s unconstitutional in our eyes, and anything like that should go through the legislature,” Tague told local media.

 “It should have an opportunity to be debated. To be able to have facts brought forth by health professionals, and leaders within our communities before we just decide to put something into law.”

‘Lip Service’

In a July 8 ruling, Acting Justice of the Supreme Court of Cattaraugus County Ronald D. Ploetz sided with the plaintiffs, stating that the rule merely gives “lip service” to constitutional due process.

“Involuntary detention is a severe deprivation of individual liberty, far more egregious than other health safety measures, such as requiring mask wearing at certain venues. Involuntary quarantine may have far-reaching consequences such as loss of income (or employment) and isolation from family,” Ploetz wrote.

The judge added that there was “no scientific data or expert testimony” to back up the rule.

Read more here.

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Don’t Blame The Weather For Texas Power Shortages

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 07:00 PM

By John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters

Since the start of May, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has twice appealed to homes and businesses to limit consumption at peak times to avert power shortages and rolling blackouts. ERCOT has issued conservation alerts more than four dozen times since 2008, most recently on July 10, when it appealed to customers to reduce consumption between 2pm and 8pm local time on July 11.ERCOT control center

State officials tend to blame the problem on extreme weather but the fragile condition of the electricity network has been caused by a failure to connect enough reliable generation to cope with booming demand growth.

Most of the increase in electric load has been driven by rapid growth in the state’s population and economy over the last 20 years rather than weather-related problems.

The state’s resident population increased to 29.5 million in mid-2021 from 21.3 million in mid-2001, according to estimates prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Retail electricity sales to residences, commercial properties, industrial sites and transport providers have surged to 427 billion kilowatt-hours in 2021 from 318 billion in 2001.

Compound annual growth in electricity sales (1.48%) has been almost the same as the compound growth in the state’s population (1.64%). Population and economic growth accounts for nearly all load growth; unusually cold winters or hot summers account for only a small share of variability.

Repeated power crises and calls for conservation show how growth in dependable generation has failed to keep pace with growth in load leading to an erosion of generation margins.

The problem is compounded by the isolated nature of the state’s grid, which has very few links to neighbouring states, and is therefore unable to spread the normal variation of generation and load over a wider area.

FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM

The inadequate generation margin is masked when weather conditions are mild and close to long-term averages (in the same way a poorly capitalised bank’s problems are hidden when the economy is booming). But when temperatures become unusually cold or hot for the time of year, the extra pressure pushes the system to the brink of failure (in the same way thinly capitalised banks fail when the business cycle turns down).

In winter, the problem centres on the inadequate weatherisation of generating units and the fuel supply system, which can cause supposedly reliable generation to fail to start when it is most needed.

In summer, there is insufficient surge generation capacity and insufficient flexibility in demand to ensure the system can be safely balanced whenever temperatures spike.

The problem is not the weather but the system design itself, insufficient capacity to match load growth, and failure to operate the network within conservative limits. The possible insufficiency of ERCOT’s generation margin this summer was identified by regulators in a review two months ago (“Summer reliability assessment”, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, May 18).

To a large extent, the problem has reflected a long-term political choice to operate an energy-only rather than a capacity market in the state to keep costs down.

The energy-only market provides cheaper electricity on average but at the cost of recurrent shortages leading to appeals for conservation and sometimes blackouts.

ERCOT has come to rely on conservation alerts as a normal operating procedure rather than exceptional emergency measure. Periodic conservation appeals and the risk of occasional blackouts have been the price for keeping generating capacity lean and costs down; conservation appeals have become a feature rather than a bug.

END

Texas Factories Dial Back Power Usage To Balance Strained Grid

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 06:55 AM

For the second time this week, Texas’ power grid operator took emergency action and asked customers to conserve power Wednesday afternoon to avoid rolling blackouts as a heatwave strained power supplies. 

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) sent customers notices three hours before 1400 local time to reduce power instead of the 18-hour notice for Monday

ERCOT blamed Wednesday’s conservation appeal on record high electric demand and the lack of wind and solar power as a relentless heatwave scorched the state. 

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Reuters reports that energy-intensive companies, such as Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp., scaled back production at its San Antonio plant to conserve power. 

A Toyota spokesperson said the San Antonio plant might stop production before 1400 local time during the business week and reduce night shifts, effective immediately through August.

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd. is another company in the state that is reducing power to support rebalancing efforts of the heavily strained grid:

“We are carefully monitoring the weather conditions and communicating with local authorities, and will adjust our plans accordingly,” Samsung said in a statement on Thursday.

Air conditioners were scaled back to conserve power at General Motors Co.’s Arlington plant, where full-size SUVs are produced for the Chevrolet, GMC, and Cadillac brands. 

Sources told Reuters that LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery, one of the largest US refineries, with a processing capacity of 268,000-barrel-per-day of heavy-sulfur crude, transforming it into refined products, such as premium grades such as gasoline, jet fuel, and ultra-low sulfur diesel, reduced power usage by switching from electric pumps to steam turbines.

A LyondellBasell spokesperson said the refinery has been working “to reduce electricity demand without shutting down assets or compromising the safety and reliability of our operations.” 

Last Thursday, a dealer for one of the larger institutional crude and products books correctly told us how industries in the state would reduce electricity this week because of an unstable power grid. 

Meanwhile, Tesla asked owners of its electric cars not to charge “between 3 pm and 8 pm … to help statewide efforts to manage demand.”

end

The Real Cost Of Inflation For Most Americans

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The June inflation figure of 9.1 percent, up half a percentage point from last month and the highest since 1981, doesn’t tell half the story of how expensive life has become for Americans. The overall figure hides the fact that not all prices have risen uniformly and that products that have become especially expensive also happen to be the ones people usually can’t do without, such as food, fuel, and energy, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).U.S. consumer price inflation surged 9.1 percent over the past 12 months to June, the fastest increase since November 1981, according to government data released on July 13, 2022. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

Among foodstuffs, margarine and eggs prices hiked the most over the 12 months ending June, up over 34 and 33 percent respectively. Trailing behind were butter (up over 21 percent), flour (up over 19 percent), and chicken (more than 18 percent). Milk and coffee were up about 16 percent.

Regular gasoline hiked more than 60 percent, diesel about 76 percent, and fuel oil, which many Americans use to heat their homes, nearly doubled in price. Natural gas went up over 38 percent and electricity nearly 14 percent.

The White House, through President Joe Biden’s Twitter account, called the inflation figures “not acceptable,” but “outdated” on July 13, noting gasoline price has declined about 40 cents per gallon (about 8 percent) over the past 30 days.

The products with the most prominent price hikes tend to also suffer supply issues. Gasoline production is constrained by the policies of the Biden administration and the financial elites more generally as part of their efforts to curb carbon emissions. Egg production has been constrained by the avian flu outbreak that cut the number of laying hens by about 8 percent in recent months. Grain production has been hit with sky-high fertilizer prices and herbicide shortages. Higher grain prices, in turn, not only show up in bakery goods and flour, but also in animal feed, which then hits meat and milk prices too.

Normally, consumers respond to higher prices by tightening their belts—consuming less—which in turn leads prices down. But because of the lavish federal spending packages during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, consumer demand has been artificially boosted. Prices will have to go up relatively steeply for another year or two before the productivity of the economy catches up with all the newly printed money, some economists have predicted.

Read more here…

END

PC Shipments Collapse As “Work From Home” Trend Plateaus And Recession Grips Consumers

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM

PC shipments aren’t immune from the global semiconductor shortage, nor are they bulletproof from what appears to be an emerging global recession.

In a day and age where your phone can do pretty much everything, demand for PCs is now plunging by its quickest pace in a decade, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal. In Q2, shipments were down 12.6% from the year prior, according to the report, which cited Gartner Inc. 

About 72 million PCs in April through June were sold, compared to 82.4 million from the year prior. A second firm, International Data Corp., said that year over year declines in global device shipments research 15.3% in Q2. 

Mikako Kitagawa, a research director at Gartner, told The Wall Street Journal: “The decline we saw in the first quarter of 2022 has accelerated in the second quarter, driven by the ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, inflationary pressure on spending and a steep downturn in demand for Chromebooks.”

The sales drop comes after households “splurged” on electrics and equipment to prepare for home schooling and working from home during the pandemic, the report says. 

And it isn’t just PC manufacturers that are feeling the pain – other stops on the supply chain are also starting to feel the slowdown. For example, WSJ notes that Intel’s Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner recently said that 2H 2022 had gotten “a lot noisier” in terms of spending and investment guidance. 

Micron also said it was cutting back spending heading into the second half of the year. Jitesh Ubrani, an IDC research manager, added: “Fears over a recession continue to mount and weaken demand across segments.” 

Gartner concluded that the U.S. market for PCs decreased by 17.5%, mostly due to a 50% decline in Chromebook shipments. 

end

Wells Fargo misses across the board as the rate hikes grind thier hugemortgage banking business to a halt

(zerohedge)

Wells Fargo Misses Across The Board As Rate Hikes Grind Mortgage Banking To A Halt

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 09:36 AM

Wells Fargo – once the largest US mortgage lender but now just a sad shadow of its former self, mired in scandal and Fed regulation – again missed analysts’ earnings estimates as home lending slowed and the bank set aside more reserves than expected for loans it expects to turn bad as Fed rate hikes push the economy into a recession.

Here are the details:

  • Revenue $17.03 billion, down 16% y/y, missed estimate of $17.54 billion
    • Commercial banking revenue $2.49 billion, +18% y/y
    • Corporate and investment banking revenue $3.57 billion, +7% y/y
    • Wealth & investment management total revenue $3.71 billion, +4.8% y/y,
  • EPS 74c, missed estimate 80c

Net interest income rose to $10.2 billion, up $1.4 billion Y/Y and matching analysts expectations, with the 16% increase demonstrating the boost banks are already getting from the Fed’s rate hikes. As the bank notes, “net interest income up $977 million, or 11%, from 1Q22 as higher earning asset yields, higher loan balances, lower MBS premium amortization, and one additional day in the quarter were partially offset by higher funding costs and lower interest income from loans purchased from securitization pools and PPP loans.”

Unfortunately, what good news there was in interest income was more than offset by the devastation in noninterest income, which was down $4.6 billion, or 40%, from 2Q21 as net gains from equity securities were down $3.3 billion “on lower results in our affiliated venture capital and private equity businesses driven by market conditions and included $576 million of impairments in 2Q22.”

But the real punch in the guts was the $1 billion decline in mortgage banking revenue from $1.336 billion to just $287 million, which was driven primarily by lower originations. It missed analysts’ $392.4 million estimate and helped bring second-quarter net income down to $3.12 billion, below the $3.19 billion analysts had expected. In short, the mortgage pipeline “bread and butter” that Wells Fargo needs to grow is catastrophically clogged up.


The Fed’s rapid rate increases, intended to tamp down surging inflation, have helped banks’ net interest margins while threatening to squelch consumers’ demand for loans. The rising rates already have sharply reduced the number of customers refinancing their mortgages and have weighed on home-sales activity as well, Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said.

It wasn’t just mortgage loan originations though: auto loans have also collapsed as the highest rates in over a decade mean fewer Americans can afford to take out loans.

Understandably, with the mortgage market collapsing, the bank had to slash costs and non-interest expenses were $12.9 billion in the quarter, down 3.4% from a year earlier, if higher than analysts expected. Cost-cutting has been a key part of Scharf’s plan to remake the firm since taking over almost three years ago, including by trimming the workforce. Headcount fell to 243,674 at the end of the second quarter, from 246,577 three months earlier.

More ominously, Wells reported a surge in loan-loss provisions to $580 million, higher than the consensus estimate of $414.7 million, and up sharply from a reserve release of $787 million in Q1. That marks a turnaround from last year when a $1.26 billion release of provisions padded results, and brought second-quarter net income to $3.12 billion, below the $3.19 billion analysts had expected. The bank said that consumer net loan charge-offs down $13 million to 33 bps of average loans (annualized), as lower losses in auto loans and other consumer loans were partially offset by higher credit card losses. Nonperforming assets decreased $878 million, or 13%, on a $624 million decline in residential mortgage nonaccrual loans primarily due to sustained payment performance of borrowers after exiting COVID-19-related accommodation programs, and a $234 million decline in commercial nonaccrual loans

Also, net of $345 million in charge offs, Wells Fargo’s total allowance for loan losses rose by just over $200 million to $12.9 trillion from $12.9 trillion the previous quarter.

Why the sharp build in reserves? Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf made it clear that he expects much more pain especially in the core mortgage banking area: “The Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will take actions necessary to reduce inflation, and this will certainly reduce economic growth… In addition, the war in Ukraine adds additional risk to the downside.”

As Bloomberg notes, the report offers another look at how the biggest US lenders fared through a quarter marked by rate hikes, persistent inflation and recession fears. Rival JPMorgan Chase & Co. temporarily suspended share buybacks and reported second-quarter results that fell short of analysts’ estimates on Thursday, driving its shares down 3.5%.

“It will be a challenging market in the mortgage business for the next couple quarters as things start to stabilize and we see where the path of rates are going to go,” Santomassimo said Friday on an conference call with reporters. Wells Fargo is among firms that have been laying off and reassigning staff in its mortgage division. He also pointed to a big slowdown in refinancings: “It’s impacting our volumes, as we expected in the last quarter.”

“As we have seen in the last couple quarters — big moves in rates,” CFO Mike Santomassimo said on a call Friday after the bank reported second-quarter earnings, which showed a steep drop in mortgage income.

Finally, adding insult to injury, recall that Wells Fargo also remains under a costly Fed-imposed asset cap limiting its size to its level at the end of 2017, as punishment for widespread crime at the bank. Period-end assets declined 3.3% from a year ago to $1.88 trillion, even as average laons outstanding rose to $927 billion while deposits continued to shrink, sliding to $1.446 trillion, roughly the same as a year ago.

Shares of San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, which fell 19% this year through Thursday, dropped 3.4% to $37.42 in early trading in New York, but have since rebounded alongside the broader move higher in futures.

The investor presentation is below (pdf link)

END

Manchin shuts down the latest plans for new tax hikes and climate spending

(zerohedge)

Manchin Shuts Down Latest Plans For New Tax Hikes, Climate Spending

FRIDAY, JUL 15, 2022 – 10:14 AM

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has once again derailed the Biden agenda, telling Democratic leaders on Thursday that he won’t support new spending on new tax hikes or spending on climate measures, in what Bloomberg describes as a “potentially fatal blow” to Democrats’ ambitious economic agenda.

Manchin’s decision – which comes amid the worst inflation in more than 40 years at 9.1% – follows a year of negotiations within his party, and months before midterm elections that will decide the fate of the Democrats’ control over both chambers of Congress.

Three people familiar with the discussions say Manchin told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he’s only willing to support lowering prescription drug costs and extending enhanced Obamacare subsidies – forcing Democrats to accept a much smaller package without most of their long-term ambitions.

His decision is a de facto veto of Biden’s hopes to revive the economic plan that fizzled last year, angering Democratic progressives who had been counting on sweeping policy wins. Manchin’s vote is pivotal in the evenly divided Senate, where Democrats need a united caucus to pass the economic package by simple majority under special budget reconciliation rules. 

Just days ago, Manchin and Schumer were negotiating over hundreds of billions in spending on measures designed to fight climate change, including tax breaks for renewable energy, electric vehicles and other clean power sources. The loss of those plans will be a bitter pill for many Democrats on Capitol Hill and at the White House. Solar stocks fell in early US trading. -Bloomberg

Manchin noted the horrendous inflation in his decision – slamming lawmakers for failing to heed his prior concerns.

“I was talking about inflation before it was even thought about,” he told reporters, adding “And now I’m more concerned than ever before.”

Manchin’s decision sent solar stocks down sharply in early Friday trading.

Congressional Democrats were crestfallen, to say the least.

“I’m not going to sugarcoat my disappointment here,” said Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR), who had been in negotiations with Manchin about clean energy incentives. “This is our last chance to prevent the most catastrophic — and costly — effects of climate change.”

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) demanded that President Biden issue an executive order to ‘address climate.’

“With legislative climate options now closed, it’s now time for executive Beast Mode,” he tweeted, adding “Free at last. Let’s roll. Do it all and start it now.”

What?

A Manchin spokeswoman said that Democrats need to accept “economic realities” that would only boost consumer prices.

“Political headlines are of no value to the millions of Americans struggling to afford groceries and gas as inflation soars to 9.1%,” said spokeswoman Sam Runyon. “Senator Manchin believes it’s time for leaders to put political agendas aside, reevaluate and adjust to the economic realities the country faces to avoid taking steps that add fuel to the inflation fire.”

Manchin’s latest roadblock comes just seven months after he killed Biden’s $2 trillion economic package, which killed a slate of progressive initiatives.

The death of the climate package, which at one point contained some a historic $555 billion on clean power, electric vehicles and resilience to global warming, would represent a major setback in the Biden administration’s efforts to confront global warming emissions. The president pledged last year that the US would cut its greenhouse gas emissions 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

As much as $320 billion in new and expanded tax credits for wind and solar power, nuclear plants, biofuels, advanced energy manufacturing and electric vehicles, would have cut global warming causing emissions by nearly 40% by 2030, according to Democratic estimates. Recently, Schumer had offered to Manchin a $375 billion package of energy and climate provisions as well as support for permitting changes sought by Manchin but Manchin said no. -Bloomberg

Environmentalists are aghast

“There truly aren’t words for how appalled, outraged, and disappointed we are,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, a senior vice president with the League of Conservation Voters. “Senator Manchin had every opportunity to stand up for climate, jobs and justice, and save families money when they need it most, but instead he is choosing to stand with polluters.”

Also in limbo is a plan to levy a global minimum tax on companies, which Democrats planned to use a now-dead tax and spending package to bring them into alignment with major parts of that agreement which was negotiated by the Treasury Department and reps from more than 130 countries.

Lastly, as Bloomberg notes, “Democrats had also promised to increase IRS funding, by $80 billion over 10 years, as a way to help bring in more revenue to balance with costs for their plan. Manchin has voiced support for that in the past, though it’s unclear what the status of that will be now that the broader package appears to have come apart.”

END

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

SWAMP STORIES

Emails Confirm Why CDC Changed Definitions Of Vaccine, Vaccinated

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 12:40 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Newly obtained emails confirm that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changed its definition for both “vaccine” and “vaccinated” because people were pointing out that definitions didn’t seem to apply to the COVID-19 vaccines.

“The definition of vaccine we have posted is problematic and people are using it to claim the COVID-19 vaccine is not a vaccine based on our own definition,” Alycia Downs, a CDC official, wrote in an email on Aug. 25, 2021, to a colleague.

The definition is located on a page titled Immunization Basics.

“Vaccine” was defined since at least 2011 by the CDC as a product that triggers immunity, while “vaccination” was described as an injection that prevents a disease, according to archived versions of the page. However, a flood of inquiries on the definitions was triggered by the fact that the COVID-19 vaccines have been increasingly ineffective against infection by the virus that causes COVID-19, the emails show.

“Our question is how is the CDC and the rest of the world allowed to call the shot a vaccination when it doesn’t even meet your own definition,” one person wrote to the CDC.

Right-wing covid-19 pandemic deniers are using your ‘vaccine’ definition to argue that mRNA vaccines are not vaccines,” another said.

The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are both built on messenger RNA technology. They are two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Downs and colleagues Allison Michelle Fisher, Cynthia Jorgensen, Valerie Morelli, and Andrew (no last name given) worked on changing the definitions for “vaccine” and “vaccination,” according to the emails.

The changes were pushed through on Aug. 31, 2021, and Sept. 1, 2021, respectively.

Changing Definitions

“Vaccine” is now defined as “a preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases. Vaccines are usually administered through needle injections, but some can be administered by mouth or sprayed into the nose.”

The previous definition was “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease. Vaccines are usually administered through needle injections, but can also be administered by mouth or sprayed into the nose.”

Read more here…

END

King report

The King Report July 15, 2022 Issue 6801Independent View of the News
US June PPI 1.1% m/m, 0.8% exp; 11.3% y/y, 10.7% exp; Core 0.4%, m/m 0.5% exp, 8.2% y/y as exp.
 
Initial Jobless Claims 244k, 235k exp & prior; Continuing Claims 1.331m, 1.38m exp, 1.372m prior
 
JPMorgan Chase earnings fell 28% after building reserves for bad loans, bank suspends buybacksJPMorgan earnings fell short of analyst expectations as the bank built reserves for bad loans by $428 million… (Q2 EPS 2.76, 2.88 exp; Managed revenue: $31.63B vs. $31.95B expected)Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon warned geopolitical tension, high inflation and waning consumer confidence could hurt the economy “sometime down the road.”…https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/jpmorgan-jpm-2q-2022-earnings.html
 
Jamie Dimon says economic risks ‘nearer than before’ in new warning https://t.co/jUIZ81DIWy
 
Morgan Stanley misses analysts’ estimates on worse-than-expected investment banking revenueThe bank’s results were hurt by a steep 55% decline in investment banking revenue….Earnings per share: $1.39 vs. $1.53 exp. ; Revenue: $13.13 billion vs. $13.48 billion expected…  https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/morgan-stanley-ms-2q-2022-earnings-.html 
ESUs sank when Asia opened.  They hit a bottom near 20:00 ET.  The ensuing rally pushed ESUs to +1.25 reading at 23:39 ET.  This was the daily high; ESUs then declined until they hit 3723.75 at 10:09 ET.  Fed Gov Waller fomented a rally that took ESUs to 3774.50 at 11:43 ET, +50.75 from low. 
 
WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: Waller on the market pricing in a 100-basis point rate rise on Wednesday: “The market may have gotten ahead of themselves a little bit yesterday.” “We don’t want to make snap policy decision based on some knee jerk reaction to what happened in the CPI report.”
 
The odds of a 50bp rate hike on July 27 dropped to 50% from 86% after Waller’s comments.  Minutes later, Bullard joined the verbal intervention party when he called for a 75bp rate hike on July 27, and that would put Fed Funds 75 bps from neutral (from what James? Not PI), implying an end to rate hikes.
 
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he favors sticking with a 75 basis-point rate increase later this month. He made the remarks in an interview with Nikkei on Wednesday https://t.co/L4hdeg41Sj
 
Why did Fed officials verbally intervene by moderating rate hike expectations after a horrible June PPI?  Italy is a crisis, again, that’s why.
 
Italy PM Mario Draghi resigned after his coalition party partner (Five Star) boycotted a confidence vote.  Italian President Matterella quickly rejected Draghi’s resignation and asked Mario to address parliament ‘to evaluate the political situation’.
 
Italian bond futures plunge to their lows for the day and the euro dips back below parity with the dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi said he would resign https://t.co/whvP0CL7dw
 
Italy Government Teeters After Five Star Sits Out Key Vote
Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s coalition government teetered on the brink of collapse Thursday, after the Five Star Movement refused to participate in a confidence vote, raising the spectre of a snap general election…  https://www.barrons.com/news/italy-government-teeters-after-five-star-sits-out-key-vote-01657806019
 
All Crisis Scenarios Lead to Rome as ECB Starts Raising Rates
Just as German policy makers feared and soothsaying economists prophesied at the birth of the currency more than two decades ago, the weakness and indebtedness of the euro area’s third-largest economy risks becoming everyone else’s problem. That prospect loomed even closer on Thursday as Mario Draghi’s government on the brink. The Italian premier is preparing to resign if a key ally follows through on a threat to abandon his coalition, potentially triggering a new phase of market turbulence…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/crisis-scenarios-lead-rome-ecb-040000772.html
 
ESUs and US stock rallied persistently until 13:39 ET on the first indication that Fed officials have gotten cold feet about rate hikes.  ESUs and stocks then traded sideways into the close on new uncertainties.
 
Will the ECB move to bailout Italy, again?  Will this force the Fed to halt its tightening cycle?  Will a Fed tightening cycle change unleash a new rally leg for commodities?
 
USUs opened sharply lower on Thursday night but rallied sharply between 20:00 ET and 21:00 ET.  They then lost the entire gain by 21:40 ET.  A modest rally began after the Nikkei closed at 1:00 ET.  The rally ended at the European open.  USUs then sank 27/32 by 3:48 ET.  After a modest rebound USUs traded sideways until they surged when the US repo market opened at 7:00 ET.
 
USUs hit a daily high of 140 7/32 at 7:42 ET.  They then commenced a decline that persisted until they hit a daily low of 138 17/32 at 9:34 ET.  After Waller and Bullard’s verbal intervention, USUs rallied and traded in concert with ESUs.
 
GOP Sen. @SenTomCotton: @blackrock’s involvement with Climate Action 100+ and its efforts to suppress investments in fossil fuels have created a climate cartel.  Collusion to reduce drilling for oil is almost certainly a violation of antitrust laws.
 
IIF Chief Economist @RobinBrooksIIF: This is “The End of the Beginning” for the Euro fall. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a seismic shock for the Euro zone, because so much of the European growth model has been predicated on cheap Russian energy. That’s over & done with. Recession & structural headwinds are coming.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks once again rallied sharply after an early plunge in the US – when will this end?
Fed officials Waller & Bullard’s verbal intervention generated ESU and USU rallies
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds, stocks, and commodities declined on higher rate and recession fears
Italy is on the brink again
JPM and MS issued disappointing Q2 results
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will other big banks issue soft Q2 results with high loan-loss reserves?
Will Italy produce another EZ crisis, and how will the ECB and Fed react if a crisis appears?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3769.45
Previous session High/Low3796.41; 3721.56
 
Biden Just Said He’s Willing to Go to War with Iran, Mainstream Yawns https://t.co/nCH4FswTrB
 
Here’s my promise to you: If I’m elected president, I will always choose to unite rather than divide. I’ll take responsibility instead of blaming others.” – The Big Guy, or a handler, tweeted on Aug 16., 2020
 
President Biden admits he was given prepared list of reporters to call on during joint news presser in Israel – The president made the gaffe after taking one question from an Israeli reporter
https://www.foxnews.com/media/president-biden-admits-he-given-prepared-list-reporters-call-during-joint-news-presser-israel
 
Question over handshake symbolizes Biden’s awkward approach to Saudi Arabia
For weeks, the question of whether President Joe Biden will shake Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hand when he visits Saudi Arabia this week has hounded officials reluctant for the president to be seen warming up to the man the U.S. believes is responsible for a journalist’s murder…
    White House officials have even suggested Biden would avoid physical contact on his Middle East trip because of the coronavirus pandemic But that plan fell apart almost immediately when Biden landed shortly after in Tel Aviv and both embraced and shook hands with officials there.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/question-over-handshake-symbolizes-bidens-awkward-approach-to-saudi-arabia/ar-AAZzSbt
 
@DrEliDavid: Biden’s team asked for no handshakes during his Israel visit, because of the deadly pandemic charade. So, here’s what he gets (Joe tries to shake hands): https://t.co/T7UUuWrDN4
 
@SteveGuest: Biden tries to shake hands with nobody again (Bidenites claim Joe pointed.  Regardless, it is disturbing to see a feeble POTUS being steered.) https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1547606015968829440
 
US will provide ‘considerably’ more work visas for Mexicans and Central Americans says Mexico’s president after delivering 30-minutes long statement with Biden in the Oval Office (Appeaseing the elites, which are now mostly Dems, while infuriating average Americans = electoral disaster)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11014553/Mexico-says-U-S-increase-work-visas-Mexicans-Central-Americans.html
 
The Fed Balance Sheet: +$4.016B (QT paused already?) https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm
 
Today is July option expiration and a summer Friday.  The Street wants and needs a rally. 
 
A key for today could be the passel of big bank Q2 results.  If the banks build loss reserves ala JPM, it is another indication of recession angst.  The Fed verbal intervention on Thursday and Italy’s descent into another crisis that could impact the Eurozone and ECB are new dynamics that need to be digested.
 
Most traders and investors under retirement age are conditioned to buy risk when a crisis develops because central banks and governments have reflexively intervened and provided massive stimuli for decades.  However, due to the highest inflation in over 40 years, aggressive central bank and fiscal stimuli should provoke higher inflation AND recession. 
 
Due to the new dynamics and today’s July expiration on a summer Friday, there is no telling what a determined few can and want to do. Will Fed Presidents Bostic & Bullard dampen rate hike expectations?
 
@MichaelGoodwell: $1.9tln of option notional expires on 15-July; $395 billion of derivatives across single stocks is scheduled to expire.  $920 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts will expire. (via GS)
ESUs are +14.00 and USUs are + 2/32 at 20:05 ET. 
 
Expected Economic Data: July Empire Mfg -2.0; June Retail Sales 0.9% m/m, ex-Autos 0.7%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.1%; June Import Prices 0.7%, Export Prices 1.2%; June Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg Production -0.1%, Capacity Utilization 80.8%; UM Sentiment 50.0, Current Conditions 53.7, Expectations 47; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 8:45 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 9:00 ET
 
Expected earnings: BK 1.21, PNC 3.14, UNH 5.19, USB 1.07, BLK 7.90, WFC .81, STT 1.73, C 1.70
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3943; 100-day MA: 4160; 150-day MA: 4305; 200-day MA: 4367
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,733; 100-day MA: 32,907; 150-day MA: 33,774; 200-day MA: 34,159
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4145.22 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3749.11 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3829.97 triggers a buy signal
 
Musk Torches MSNBC After Host Suggests He Stop Mocking Hunter Biden
“Imagine the positive impact you could have on the world if you used the extraordinary amount of influence and power you have to spread decency, kindness and positivity?” she said…“Imagine if MSNBC did that,” he shot back at Ruhle… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/07/14/muskmsnbc-n2610233
 
GOP @RepChipRoy: Judiciary Committee Democrats just unanimously REJECTED Rep. Roy’s amendment to increase penalties for all child sex trafficking offenses.
https://twitter.com/RepChipRoy/status/1547321171368202242
 
Ocasio-Cortez Says She Was Going to Physically Assault Comedian Who Commented on Her Body
Stein, known for trolling politicians and city council meetings, was filming on the steps of the Capitol when Ocasio-Cortez walked by, as seen in videos shared by the congresswoman and Stein on their social media accounts. “AOC my favorite big booty Latina, I love you!” Stein called out to Ocasio-Cortez…
    “Here is a video he posted of the incident,” Ocasio-Cortez continued, sharing the clip of her posing with Stein for a moment before continuing up the steps. “I was actually walking over to deck him because if no one will protect us then I’ll do it myself but I needed to catch a vote more than a case today.”… https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/14/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-alex-stein-viral-video-capitol-twitter/
 
Just a week ago, AOC mockingly supported the harassment of Kavanaugh while he dined.
https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1547686651970826240/photo/1
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC: The whole point of protesting is to make ppl uncomfortable.  Activists take that discomfort w/ the status quo & advocate for concrete policy changes. Popular support often starts small & grows. To folks who complain protest demands make others uncomfortable… that’s the point.  Dec 2, 2020
 
@bonchieredstate: And I have a right to point out AOC is a hypocrite who encourages public harassment of people she doesn’t like, claiming protest is supposed to make people uncomfortable, but then freaks out when she’s targeted. And this guy was trolling her specifically to show that.
 
AOC accuses Capitol Police of ‘opening the doors’ on Jan. 6 – “There were actual officers working with this, and we never got to the bottom of that,” Ocasio Cortez said (Undermines Jan 6 Com & DoJ)
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/aoc-accuses-capitol-police-opening-doors-jan-6
 
@TomFitton: The specifics of this incident aside, @AOC is correct that, despite all the security theater, US Capitol security has been lax for some time. And what @AOC doesn’t say is Pelosi is currently responsible. And was ultimately responsible, in part, for the Jan 6 security breakdown.
 
Homeland Security watchdog says many Secret Service text messages from the time of Jan. 6 Capitol attack were deleted. (Qui bono?) https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/07-14-2022/secret-service-texts-missing/
 
The Hidden Agenda Behind the New York Times’ Desperate Puff Piece on Ray Epps
Ray Epps, the only person caught on camera repeatedly directing people into the Capitol, is the only January 6 rioter for whom the New York Times has written a highly sympathetic puff piece… Let’s skip straight to the buried lede.
    Here we see a reference to a text message Epps sent to his nephew describing how he “orchestrated movements of people” to the Capitol after Trump’s speech…
     Ray Epps didn’t go to Trump’s speech… this alleged Trump supporter travelled all the way from Arizona to DC, and didn’t even attend Trump’s speech. Instead, he spent the evening of January 5th and the morning of the 6th telling people to go into the Capitol…
    The bottom line here is that Ray Epps is the smoking gun of the Fedsurrection narrative If it turns out Epps was acting on behalf of some government agency on January 6, the entire official narrative collapses… The New York Times is kicking off a massive damage control campaign to make any unsanctioned ideas about Epps too toxic and dangerous to print…
https://www.revolver.news/2022/07/the-hidden-agenda-behind-new-york-times-desperate-ray-epps-puff-piece/
 
@DineshDSouza: Ray Epps might not be a fed, in which case the question is why isn’t he facing charges? Or Ray Epps might be a fed in which case his not facing charges makes complete sense. So, which is it? Funny how neither the @nytimes nor the #January6thCommittee can clear this up for us
 
@jeffreyatucker: And here is Dr Birx openly admitting that she subverted and undermined the White House policy priorities, and did so with the tacit approval of VP Pence.
https://twitter.com/jeffreyatucker/status/1547690602514419716
 
Goldman Sachs Teams Up with Google’s ‘Director of Regime Change’ to Influence Global Politics
Goldman Sachs has hired Jared Cohen, a former Google executive nicknamed the “director of regime change” by Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, for a new project that will use technology to advance the notoriously powerful investment bank’s policy goals around the world. Cohen was also a senior official in Hillary Clinton’s state department who will now manage “shifts in the geopolitical landscape” for the financial giant… Cohen joined the U.S. State Department after graduating college, working under George Bush appointee Condoleezza Rice. He was one of the few Bush appointees kept on by Hillary Clinton…  https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2022/07/13/goldman-sachs-teams-up-with-googles-director-of-regime-change-to-influence-global-politics/

 

Greg Hunter:  https://usawatchdog.com/war-coming-more-die-unexpectedly-record-inflation-drought-disaster/

War Coming, More Die “Unexpectedly,” Record Inflation, Drought Disaster

By Greg Hunter On July 15, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups47 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 538 7.15.22)

There is no getting around the fact that direct war with Russia is coming.  There are zero moves for peace talks, and the only thing that is moving are more weapons to Ukraine.  Meanwhile, the economic sanction war continues to backfire.  Canada has decided to allow a repaired turbine that helps moves natural gas from Russia to Europe to be returned to Russia.  No way that turbine be there before July 22.  That’s when Russia says it cannot guarantee the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will function to full capacity. The repaired turbine has been held up by Canada because of sanctions.  There is no telling when it will be put back into service.  Will the economy in the EU and, especially, Germany be shut down even further?  Will the banks fold?  Will Europeans freeze this winter?  All good questions that probably have very negative answers.

Another week and more reports of people who “die unexpectedly.”  The reports never ask the question, “Were they vaxed?”  Heaven forbid anyone ask for an autopsy with all of these people dying (many of them young) for no apparent reason.  Might it be they were given a bioweapon that was passed off as a vaccine?  And it’s causing heart attacks, strokes, cancers and many other life threatening and life ending problems?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is out with a new inflation number, and it’s hit another fresh 40-year record high at 9.1%.  Shadowstats.com economist John Williams calls bull crap on the rigged “official” inflation number, and he says inflation in the real world is more like 17.3%.  This is bad news for the Biden/Obama White House.  This new inflation spike is going to force the Fed into raising rates in their upcoming July meeting.  That will further tank the economy right into the mid-term election in November.

To go along with the record inflation, there is even worse record drought out West.  Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at historic lows.  The federal government is demanding massive cutbacks in water consumption to make supplies last.  Dane Wigington of GeoengineeringWatch.org says the severe drought is mostly caused by man-made weather modification that the government has been doing for years non-stop.  This is going to have a dangerous and profound effect on food prices and production.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 7.15.22.

https://usawatchdog.com/war-coming-more-die-unexpectedly-record-inflation-drought-disaster/()

After the Wrap-Up:

Climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  He will tell you about the huge water tunnel that was dug secretly to drain every last drop of water out of Lake Mead to send to Las Vegas long after the lake becomes a dead pool.

See you MONDAY

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