JULY 22/GOLD UP ANOTHER $17.45 TO $1728.90//SILVER IS DOWN 10 CENTS TO $18.81//PLATINUM UP $5.35 TO $8880.30//PALLADIUM UP A STRONG $123.80 TO $2012.95//COVID UPDATES//STEVE KIRSCH GETS TO DISCOVER FAUCI AND COMPANY UNDER FREEDOM OF SPEACH AS HE SUES MEDIA ,BIDEN AND HIS HEALTH ADVISORS//MAJOR STUDY SHOWS MASKS USELESS/GAZPROM UPDATES: IEA CHIEF WARNS THAT EUROPE MUST CUT 20% OF USAGE TO SURVIVE THIS WINTER//ALSO THE IMF WARNS THAT THE RUSSIAN GAS SHUTOFF WILL CAUSE A EUROPEAN RECESSION//EUROPE’S PMI DOWN BADLY//USA PMI DOWN BADLY//GERMANY BAILS OUT GAS UTILITY UNIPER//ISRAEL BOMBS SYRIA//TWITTER LOSES $344 MILLION DOLLARS THIS QUARTER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1728.90 UP $14.45 

SILVER: $18.71 DOWN 10 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1727.15

SILVER: $18.62

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,043 UP 488

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,074. UP 457 

Platinum price: closing UP $5.35 to $880.30

Palladium price; closing UP $123.80  at $2012.95

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,712.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/21/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/25/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 30
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 256
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 292


TOTAL: 292 292
MONTH TO DATE: 9,519

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  292/292 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY CONTRACT:  292 NOTICES FOR 29,200 OZ //0.9082 TONNES

total notices so far: 9519 contracts for 951,900 oz (29.608 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

47 NOTICES FILED FOR 235,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  3405 :  for 17,025,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $17.45 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

TONNES FROM THE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 500.484 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GOOD SIZED 710  CONTRACTS TO 145,595   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY  $0.05 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.05) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 937 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 270,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -46

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 15 days, total 13,508  contracts:  67.540 million oz  OR 4.502 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (901 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 67.54 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 67.54 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 710 DESPITE OUR  $0.05 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1601 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 270,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 937 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.455 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 47  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  235,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 9671 CONTRACTS  TO 518,984 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -44 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $11.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITION ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 17,500 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF   $11.40 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY TINY SIZED GAIN OF 108  OI CONTRACTS 0.3359 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  9779  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 518,984

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY TINY  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 108 CONTRACTS  WITH 9671 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND9779 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 108 CONTRACTS OR 0.3359 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9779) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9,571): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  10,324 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 17,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS/ //.,4)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

98,062 CONTRACTS OR 9,806,200 OZ OR 305.01  TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6305 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 305.01 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  305.01/3550 x 100% TONNES  8.59% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 305.01 TONNES (HUGE INCREASE FROM JUNE//WILL CLOSE IN ON THE RECORD EFP ISSUANCE IN MARCH 22) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 710 CONTRACT OI TO 145,595 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1601 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1601  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:1601 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 664  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1601 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 891   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.455 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.05

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.03 PTS OR 0.06%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.51 OR 0.17%    /The Nikkei closed UP 111.66 OR % 0.40.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.09%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7583//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.613//    /Oil DOWN TO 95.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 103.13// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.03 PTS OR 0.06%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.51 OR 0.17%    /The Nikkei closed UP 111.66 OR % 0.40.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.09%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONG AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9,627 CONTRACTS TO 519,028 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE OF $11.40  IN GOLD PRICING  THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP (6455 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 9627 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :9627 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9627 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY TINY SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 152  CONTRACTS IN THAT 9779 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 9627  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG  RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 11.40.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (29.645),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.645 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $11.40) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A VERY TINY SIZED GAIN  OF 0.4778 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (29.645 TONNES)

WE HAD -XX  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 132 CONTRACTS OR  13200  OZ OR 0.4728 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 254,786/// fair/

final gold volumes/yesterday  317,644 / good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 22

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz160,112,481oz
Brinks


Malca
Manfra
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in ozNIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today292  notice(s)
29,200 OZ
0.9082 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)12 contracts 
1200 oz
0.0373 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9519 notices
951900 OZ
29.608 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: NIL oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks  128.61 oz (4 kilobar)

ii)Out of Manfra:  21,380.03 oz (665 KILOBARS)

iii) Out of Malca: 138,602.961 oz

total withdrawal: 160.111.681   oz (4.98 tonnes)

ADJUSTMENTS:3 dealer to customer

Brinks: 76,680.135 oz

JPMorgan: 4630.911 oz

Malca: 2797.137 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 304 contracts having GAINED 162 contracts . We had

13 notices filed on Thursday so we GAINED a strong 175  contracts or an additional 17,500 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 28,579 contracts down to 187,913 contracts

Sept. gained 99 contracts to 2878 contracts.

We had 292 notice(s) filed today for  29200 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 292 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  292 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9519) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 304  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 292 x 100 oz per contract equals 953,100 OZ  OR 29.645 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9519) x 100 oz+   (304)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (292} x 100 oz} which equals 953,100 oz standing OR 29.645 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  29.645 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  31,173,271.582 OZ 

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,873,034.587  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,300,736.995 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,538,186.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 421 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 22

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,579,769.080  oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,158,871.160 oz
JPM
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)47 CONTRACT(S)
235,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)183 contracts 
(915,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3405 contracts
 17,025,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware  2004.061 oz

total deposit:  2004.061   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 177.063 million oz/341.926 million =51.79% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:0

 adjustments: 1/dealer to customer

JPMorgan: 312,407.190 oz

customer to Dealer: HSBC:  889,917.620 oz

two: customer to dealer

a) Brinks 55,536.920 oz

b) HSBC 8937.110 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 60.044 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341.926 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 230 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 31 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 85 NOTICES FILED

ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 54 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  270,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 40 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 983

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 663 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,185

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 47 for  235,000 oz

Comex volumes:43,714// est. volume today//  poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60,290 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3405 x 5,000 oz = 17 025,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(230) and the number of notices served upon today 47  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 3405 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (230)  – number of notices served upon today (47) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 17,940,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.87 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 500.484 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your weekend reading material.

A must read

(Courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: Gold and the coming recession

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-07-21 19:27Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, July 21, 2022

We are now seeing the initial stages of a currency, credit, and banking crisis develop. Driving it are an inflation of prices, contraction of bank credit, and a pathological fear of recession. One can imagine that the major central banks almost wish a mild recession upon us so that they can keep interest rates suppressed and bond yields low.

The key to understanding the course of events is that the cycle of bank credit is turning down, and this time the factors driving contraction are greater than anything we have experienced since the 1930s, and possibly in all modern monetary history.

This article joins the dots between inflation and recession and puts the relationship between money (that is only gold), currencies, credit, and commodity prices into the proper perspective. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold-and-the-upcoming-recession

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

RONAN MANLY/BULLION STAR:

Despite Manipulating Precious Metals Prices, JPMorgan Is Still At The Heart Of The LBMA, SBMA, & COMEX

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

With a group of former JP Morgan precious metals traders currently on criminal trial in front of a federal jury in Chicago, accused of engaging in a racketeering conspiracy involving precious metals price manipulation, commodities fraud and trade spoofing, while another group of their colleagues have already pleaded guilty, now is a good time to ask how the bank JP Morgan is still considered fit and proper to not only continue to trade in the precious metals markets, but to continue to literally dominate the entire precious metals industry in London, Singapore and New York, with the support of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) and the CME Group (operator of the COMEX and NYMEX).

While JP Morgan made a deferred prosecution deal with the US Department of Justice (DoJ) and Commodity Futures Trade Commission (CFTC) in 2020 and admitted wrongdoing for the criminal conduct of numerous JP Morgan traders and sales personnel on the bank’s precious metals desk located in London, Singapore, and New York, while paying US$ 920 million in the form of a criminal monetary penalty, criminal disgorgement, and victim compensation in relation to this criminal precious metals scheme, the LBMA and SBMA and CME Group (owner of COMEX), as you will see below, continue to not only welcome the proven criminal bank JP Morgan with open arms, but to allow JP Morgan to operate at the highest levels of each organisation.

Ongoing Trial of Nowak & Co

The current criminal trial, which kicked off on Friday 8 July 2022, with the US DoJ and CFTC as prosecution, accuses Michael Nowak (former head of JP Morgan’s precious metals trading desk), Gregg Smith (former JP Morgan precious metals trader) and Jeffery Ruffo (former JP Morgan precious metals salesman) of being involved in a criminal enterprise that entered and cancelled thousands of fake precious metals futures orders (deceptive orders) for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on COMEX and NYMEX between March 2008 and August 2016 in order to manipulate precious metals prices as well as manipulate barrier options based on the futures prices.     

A fourth former JP Morgan precious metals trader, Christopher Jordan, who left JP Morgan in December 2009, is also accused of similar crimes by the DoJ and will be tried separately.  

The Nowak – Smith – Ruffo trail is being presided over by Edmond E. Chang, United States District Judge. Unbelievably  (or maybe not), Nowak’s defense lawyer in the trial is none other than David Meister, who from 2010 – 2013 was the CFTC’s Director of Enforcement, and who was at the CFTC during the chairmanship of Gary Gensler during which time the CFTC did a 5 year investigation into precious metals price manipulation, and then shut down the investigation claiming it had found no evidence of manipulation. That could explain why Meister is called “the Gensler Whisperer” by lawyer profile experts Chambers.

At the time the indictment of Nowak, Smith and Jordan was unsealed in September 2019, US Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski at the DoJ said: 

“The defendants and others allegedly engaged in a massive, multiyear scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants.

In the current trial of Nowak, Smith and Ruffo, the US Government is calling two other former JP Morgan precious metals traders as witnesses for the prosecution, namely John Edmonds, Christian Trunz, and one colleague of Gregg Smith’s who worked with him at Bear Stearns, namely Corey Flaum.

Edmonds and Trunz have already pleaded guilty to their roles in the JP Morgan criminal scheme, and Flaum has already pleaded guilty to manipulating precious metals prices via COMEX futures between 2007 and 2016.

As of the time of writing, John Edmonds, Corey Flaum and Christian Trunz have all just testified to the federal jury in the Nowak – Smith – Ruffo trial. See here for Edmonds testimony, here for Flaum’s testimony, and here for Trunz’s testimony. The earlier guilty pleas of Edmonds, Trunz and Flaum were as follows:

On 9 October 2018, John Edmonds pleaded guilty to “commodities fraud and a spoofing conspiracy in connection with his participation in fraudulent and deceptive trading activity in the precious metals futures contracts markets”.

Edmonds admitted that:

from approximately 2009 through 2015, he conspired with other precious metals traders at the Bank to manipulate the markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the COMEX and NYMEX.

Notably, Edmonds also:

admitted that he learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank, and he personally deployed this strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.”

On 25 July 2019, Corey Flaum (who worked with Gregg Smith at Bear Sterns before Smith moved to JP Morgan) pleaded guilty to attempted commodities price manipulation and admitted that:

“between approximately June 2007 and July 2016, [he] placed thousands of orders to manipulate the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on COMEX and NYMEX.”

Corey Flaum worked at Bear Stearns from 2006 until 2008, and then worked at Scotia Capital from 2010 until 2016.

On 20 August 2019, Christian Trunz, “a former precious metals trader at the London, Singapore and New York offices of JP Morgan” pleaded guilty to conspiracy and spoofing charges. Trunz also admitted that:

“between approximately July 2007 and August 2016, [he] placed thousands of orders that he did not intend to execute for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the NYMEX and COMEX).”

Notably, the DoJ says that Trunz admitted that he:

“learned to spoof from more senior traders, and spoofed with the knowledge and consent of his supervisors.”

Trunz is interesting in that he worked at various times in all three locations that JP Morgan’s global trading desk spans, i.e. London, Singapore and New York. 

The guilty please of Edmonds, Flaum and Trunz over 2018 – 2019 then allowed the US Department of Justice to move forward with its indictment of Michael Nowak, Gregg Smith and Christopher Jordan, an indictment which was filed on 22 August 2019, and then unsealed on 16 September 2019. In fact, the Nowak – Smith – Jordan indictment was filed only 2 days after Trunz had pleaded guilty.

In its indictment statement of Nowak, Smith and Jordan, the US DoJ said that:

“between approximately May 2008 and August 2016, the defendants [Nowak, Smith and Jordan] and their co-conspirators were members of JP Morgan’s global precious metals trading desk in New York, London and Singapore with varying degrees of seniority and supervisory responsibility over others on the desk. 

As it relates to the RICO conspiracy, the defendants and their co-conspirators were allegedly members of an enterprise – namely, the precious metals desk at JP Morgan – and conducted the affairs of the desk through a pattern of racketeering activity, specifically, wire fraud affecting a financial institution and bank fraud.

The indictment alleges that the defendants engaged in widespread spoofing, market manipulation and fraud while working on the precious metals desk at JP Morgan through the placement of orders they intended to cancel before execution (Deceptive Orders) in an effort to create liquidity and drive prices toward orders they wanted to execute on the opposite side of the market. 

In thousands of sequences, the defendants and their co-conspirators allegedly placed Deceptive Orders for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the NYMEX and COMEX.”

On 14 November 2019, the US DoJ then filed a superseding indictment, which added Jeffery Ruffo to the racketeering conspiracy, along with Nowak, Smith and Jordan.

Then on 29 September 2020, the DoJ announced a bombshell, namely that JP Morgan had agreed to a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) with the DoJ, specifically that JP Morgan had:

entered into a resolution with the Department of Justice to resolve criminal charges related to …tens of thousands of episodes of unlawful trading in the markets for precious metals futures contracts” and agreed to “pay over $920 million in a criminal monetary penalty, criminal disgorgement, and victim compensation”.

In the DoJ statement from 29 September 2020, Assistant Director William F. Sweeney Jr of the FBI’s New York Field Office said that”

 “For nearly a decade, a significant number of JP Morgan traders and sales personnel openly disregarded U.S. laws that serve to protect against illegal activity in the marketplace.”

“According to admissions and court documents, between approximately March 2008 and August 2016, numerous traders and sales personnel on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk located in New York, London, and Singapore engaged in a scheme to defraud in connection with the purchase and sale of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts (collectively, precious metals futures contracts) that traded on the COMEX and NYMEX.”

In the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA), “JPMorgan” was defined as “JP Morgan and its subsidiaries JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMC), and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS) and their subsidiaries and affiliates, and their officers, directors, employees and agents.”

The DoJ statement from 2020 also referred to the next stage of the investigation, saying that the DOJ “obtained a superseding indictment” against Nowak, Smith, Jordan and Ruffo which charges them “for their alleged participation in a racketeering conspiracy and other federal crimes in connection with the manipulation of the precious metals futures contracts markets”.

Which illustrates nicely for those who might not know that the ongoing trial of Nowak, Smith and Ruffo in July 2022 is part of the same criminal investigation which JP Morgan bought its way out of for US$ 920 million in 2020.

Which brings us right back to the central question, a.k.a. the elephant in the room, which is, given that JPMorgan’s precious metals desk located in New York, London, and Singapore was manipulating the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium for more than 8 years between 2008 to 2016, then why is JP Morgan still even allowed near the precious metals markets in London, Singapore and New York, let alone allowed to dominate these markets with the blessing of the organizations which administer these markets, namely the LBMA and SBMA and COMEX?

* * *

London – JP Morgan and the LBMA

Let’s take a look at what I mean. Despite its criminal activities and precious metals price manipulation, JP Morgan is still one of the most powerful members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and one of the most dominant banks active in the London gold and silver and platinum and palladium markets.

Despite its crimes and manipulations, there are currently (as of July 2022) three JP Morgan entities that are members of the LBMA. These entities are JP Morgan Chase Bank which is a Market making member of the LBMA, JP Morgan Securities Plc which is a full member of the LBMA, and JP Morgan AG (Germany) which is also a full member of the LBMA.

 

JP Morgan Chase Bank NA (London branch) is also one of 16 direct participants in the daily LBMA Gold Price auctions, auctions which set a gold price which is used daily in everything from ETF valuations, to mine sales contracts, to valuing billions of dollars of derivatives contracts, such as swaps and options.  

Similarly, JP Morgan Chase Bank NA (London branch) is also one of 13 direct participants in the daily LBMA Silver Price auctions.

But there’s more, JP Morgan is one of only 4 members of London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL) , a private company which runs the entire paper precious metals clearing system in London. In fact, JP Morgan was one of the founding members of LPMCL in 2001. See the BullionStar article here for background. 

There are 2 current active directors of LPMCL from JP Morgan, namely Mark Amlin and Andrew Lovell. 

In fact, LPMCL’s correspondence address is at the LBMA’s headquarters at 7th Floor, 62 Threadneedle Street in the City of London,  i.e. the LBMA and LPMCL share the same office!

In precious metals vaulting, JP Morgan is also one of the 3 bank custodians which operate a vault in the LBMA London market (the other vault custodians which are the banks HSBC and ICBC Standard). The security operators Brinks, Malca Amit and Loomis also run LBMA vaults in London.

This previously secret JP Morgan vault is located under a JP Morgan building between Carmelite Street and John Carpenter Street in the City of London, as explained in February 2013 here

JP Morgan Chase Bank is also a market making member of the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM).  In addition, J P Morgan Securities plc and J P Morgan SE are associate Members of the LPPM.

But wait. There is even more. JP Morgan is also active on a number of LBMA committees. There is one JP Morgan representative, Andrew Lovell, on the LBMA’s Physical Committee. This committee “is responsible for monitoring, developing and protecting the Good Delivery List”. There is also one JP Morgan representative, Declan McKeever, on the LBMA Regulatory Affairs Committee.

 

The LBMA also runs a few other working groups, one of which is the deliciously titled “LBMA Financial Crime Working Group.” Presumably JP Morgan is not in this group, but there again, perhaps they actually run it, and use the forum to share their practical experience, such as precious metals trade spoofing and fraud, with the rest of the members.

But the icing on the cake has to be that on the day when the US DoJ unsealed its indictment against JP Morgan’s global precious metals desk head Michael Nowak on 16 September 2019, Nowak was still a board member of the LBMA. See BullionStar article “LBMA Board Member & JP Morgan Managing Director Charged with Rigging Precious Metals” from 17 September 2019.

You can’t make this up. Then a few days after the DoJ’s 16 September 2019 announcement, the LBMA was no longer able to keep its head buried in the sand and was forced to remove Nowak from the LBMA Board. See BullionStar article “LBMA Removes JP Morgan’s Michael Nowak from the LBMA Board” from 20 September 2019.

So why is a bank whose precious metals traders manipulated prices for over 8 years, and in the words of the US DoJ, defrauded customers through “thousands of instances of unlawful trades” that “openly disregarded U.S. laws that serve to protect against illegal activity in the marketplace” still allowed to be a member of the LBMA and to practically dominate the London precious metals markets?

Everything that JP Morgan’s precious metals traders did from 2008 to 2016 while manipulating the prices of gold and silver and platinum and palladium is in breach of the principles of the Financial Services Authority handbook such as Principle 1 (Integrity), Principle 2 (Due skill, Care and Diligence), Principle 5 (Market Conduct), as well as in breach of the LBMA code of conduct in the form of the Bullion Market annex of the Non-Investment Products (NIPs) code which the LBMA was involved in drawing up, and which was in force before it was replaced by the LBMA Global Precious Metals Code in 2017. A copy of the NIPs code can be seen here – the-non-investment-products-code

In essence, Why have the LBMA and the LPPM not kicked JP Morgan out of their associations? Has the LBMA no moral compass or ethics? Additionally, why does the Bank of England observer on the LBMA Board, Andrew Grice, not call for JP Morgan to be immediately ejected from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) and permanently banned from trading, clearing and vaulting gold, silver, platinum and palladium in London?

Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, through Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of New York, JP Morgan was one of the 6 founding members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 1987.

If you look at the 1987 Memorandum of Association of the LBMA, you will even see that it is signed by Guy Field of JP Morgan, who was at the time global head of the JP Morgan bullion department, and who became the founding vice chairman of the LBMA. See also BullionStar article here about the LBMA’s founding.

So is the LBMA merely a cartel front for JP Morgan and its fellow bullion banks to control the global precious metals markets with JP Morgan pulling the strings?   

Singapore – JP Morgan and the SBMA

Speaking of the founding members of bullion market associations, most people do not realize that the tentacles of the JP Morgan octopus stretch even to Singapore, where, the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) was … wait for it… co-founded by JP Morgan in 1993. I kid you not.

Specifically, the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) was founded by Tim Gardiner of JP Morgan and Kerr Cruikshank of the World Gold Council (aka the World Paper Gold Council).

Tim Gardiner of JP Morgan was even the founding chairman of the SBMA. Here’s a video of Tim Gardiner actually confirming these facts.

Current SBMA CEO, Albert Cheng also confirms these facts in a SBMA article from 5 June 2019 where he says:

“In 1993, the Singapore government announced the implementation of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) scheme to all business transactions. In response, JP Morgan and the World Gold Council felt it was necessary to form an industry forum of bullion market participants to lobby the government for concessions for gold trading businesses dealing in physical transactions, hence the birth of SBMA.”

 

Fast forward to more recent times, and in March 2018, Gordon Cheung, who was previously a managing director of Bear Sterns and an executive director of JP Morgan, was appointed as deputy director of the SBMA.

Right now, JP Morgan representatives are also on the SBMA management committee. A JP Morgan South East Asia (SEA) Ltd managing director, Amar Singh, is currently a member of the SBMA’s management committee . Prior to Singh, Stephen Jani, a managing director of JP Morgan Global Commodities, was the JP Morgan member of the SBMA management committee from 2017 to 2019.

And prior to Jani, the JP Morgan representative on the SBMA management committee was Harshika Patel, another managing Director of JP Morgan Global Commodities. Patel was also on the SBMA’s Public Affairs Committee (PAC) at that time.

Currently, JP Morgan SEA Ltd is also on the SBMA Good Delivery List committee.

In fact, JP Morgan is in the most prestigious membership category of the SBMA, namely a Category 1 member. Apart from JP Morgan, only one other bank, ICBC Standard Singapore branch, is a category 1 member of the SBMA. Not surprisingly the World Gold Council (the other co-founder of the SBMA) got a free pass to also be defined as a category 1 member of the SBMA.  

To qualify as Category 1 bank members of the SBMA –

“Category 1 Members which are banks and financial institutions must satisfy the “Fit and Proper” criteria specified in the MAS “Guidelines on Fit and Proper Criteria” (FSG-G01) as may be amended from time to time and have a track record in the bullion industry for a period of at least 3 years. “

MAS is the Monetary Authority of Singapore. So what are the MAS Fit and Proper criteria for banks?

According to the MAS document titled “Guidelines on Fit and Proper Criteria” which apply to ‘Relevant Persons’ (i.e. all financial entities including banks):

“2. MAS expects a relevant person to be competent, honest, to have integrity and to be of sound financial standing….This also underpins our requirements that the relevant person performs the activities regulated under the relevant legislation efficiently, honestly, fairly and acts in the best interests of its or his stakeholders and customers.

“8 The criteria for considering whether a relevant person is fit and proper include but are not limited to the following:

(a) honesty, integrity and reputation;

(b) competence and capability; (c) financial soundness”

“13 Honesty, Integrity and Reputation

 The factors set out in the following paragraphs are relevant to the assessment of the honesty, integrity and reputation of a relevant personThe factors include but are not limited to whether the relevant person:

(c) has been censured, disciplined, suspended or refused membership or registration by MAS or any other regulatory authority, an operator of a market, trade repository or clearing facility, any professional body or government agency, whether in Singapore or elsewhere;

(e) has been the subject of any proceedings of a disciplinary or criminal nature or has been notified of any potential proceedings or of any investigation which might lead to those proceedings, under any law in any jurisdiction;

(g) has had any judgment (in particular, that associated with a finding of fraud, misrepresentation or dishonesty) entered against the relevant person in any civil proceedings or is a party to any pending proceedings which may lead to such a judgment, under any law in any jurisdiction;

(h) has accepted civil liability for fraud or misrepresentation under any law in any jurisdiction;

Based on it’s own extensive criteria of “Fit and Proper”, JP Morgan fails all of these tests, where “for nearly a decade” between March 2008 and August 2016, as the US Department of Justice stated, ”a significant number of JP Morgan traders and sales personnel” from “JPMorgan’s precious metals desk located in New York, London, and Singapore” engaged in “racketeering activity” through a “criminal enterprise”, and engaged in “widespread spoofing, market manipulation and fraud” and engaged in “a scheme to defraud in connection with the purchase and sale of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts (collectively, precious metals futures contracts) that traded on the COMEX and NYMEX.”

So why has Singapore’s MAS not acted against JP Morgan? And why does the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA), knowing that JP Morgan rigged precious metals prices and conducted fraud for over 8 years while paying $920 million in a deferred prosecuted agreement with the US DoJ and the US CFTC, still allow JP Morgan to be a member of the SBMA, let alone still allow JP Morgan representatives on to the SBMA Management Committee? Enquiring minds would like to know.

USA – JP Morgan and COMEX

Finally, let’s go back to the commodity futures exchanges on which the criminal activities of JP Morgan have been proven to have taken place – the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Surely the owners and governors of COMEX and NYMEX have kicked out JP Morgan from continuing to operate on their exchanges?

Wrong!

Despite during 2020 admitting criminal wrongdoing and paying a criminal monetary penalty of US $ 920 million to the DoJ and CFTC for engaging “in a scheme to defraud in connection with the purchase and sale of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts (collectively, precious metals futures contracts) that traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by the CME Group, Inc”, JP Morgan is still one of the largest traders of COMEX precious metals futures contracts.

 

JP Morgan is also a COMEX approved depository (vault storage provider) for the storage of gold, silver, platinum and palladium used in the settlement of COMEX futures contracts.

Not only that, but the JP Morgan vault in New York holds the largest amounts of gold, silver, platinum and palladium listed on the COMEX inventory reports, compared to any other COMEX approved vault.

JP Morgan’s COMEX vault is located in the 5th basement level (basement B5) under 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza (across the street from the New York Federal Reserve’s gold vault at 33 Liberty Street). As explained in March 2013.

Through JP Morgan Securities LLC, JP Morgan is also one of the largest clearing firms of COMEX and NYMEX and an authorized clearing member of COMEX and NYMEX.

In addition, JP Morgan (along with Citibank) together hold 90% of all gold and other precious metals derivatives held by all US banks. See here for discussion.

Why has the COMEX Board of Governors not disciplined and expelled JP Morgan from any and all involvement in COMEX, let alone allowing JP Morgan to continue to be one of the largest traders and clearers on COMEX and the largest approved vault operator of a COMEX vault?

After all, there is an entire section in the By-Laws of COMEX covering Disciplinary proceedings, specifically Article 8. See here.

Also, why did the CME “Market Surveillance” team, which is “responsible for protecting the economic functioning of exchange markets by ensuring the markets are free from manipulation” by “detecting, deterring, and preventing market manipulation”, never pick up on JP Morgan’s 8 years of criminal manipulation of COMEX gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures prices?  

Now that the US Department of Justice has done so, why has CME Group (owner of the COMEX and NYMEX) not prohibited JP Morgan from operating on the COMEX and NYMEX given that JP Morgan broke all the rules in its criminal manipulation of gold and silver and platinum and palladium futures contracts on COMEX and NYMEX over an 8 year period?

Conclusion

This article has drawn together the various pieces of the investigation into JP Morgan’s precious metals manipulation in New York and London and Singapore, and the prosecutions and deferred prosecutions so far, as well as the ongoing trial of Nowak & Co, so as to then show that JP Morgan is still not only active in the precious metals markets in these financial centers, but actually still at the heart of the LBMA and the SBMA and the COMEX, where in all 3 cases it is welcomed with open arms.  

The latest revelations from the current Chicago federal trial of Michael Nowak, Gregg Smith and Jeffery Ruffo are startling. According to Smith’s colleague at JP Morgan, Christian Trunz, who gave evidence to the jury on 19 July 2022,

“Gregg Smith clicked his computer mouse so rapidly to place and cancel bogus gold and silver orders for Bear Stearns Cos. and later JPMorgan Chase & Co. that his colleagues would joke that he needed to put ice on his fingers to cool them down afterward, or that he must be double-jointed.”  

Since JP Morgan’s global precious metals trading desk spans the 3 locations of New York, London, and Singapore, it’s reasonable to assume that it employs a follow the sun model, in which case the trade book of the desk would be carried around the clock between the 3 locations. If that is the case, the trading teams in London and Singapore would know the trades of JP Morgan’s New York traders. So this begs the question, what are the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Singapore’s Monetary Authority (MAS) going to do if or when Nowak, Smith, Ruffo and Jordan are found guilty? Open up investigations of their own into the London and Singapore arms of JP Morgan’s global precious metals trading desk?

And how will the LBMA, SBMA and COMEX react if or when the next batch of JP Morgan precious metals traders are found guilty? Will it continue to be business as usual? The answer unfortunately is probably yes.

*  *  *

This article was originally published on the BullionStar.com website under the same title “Despite manipulating precious metals prices, JP Morgan is still at the heart of the LBMA, SBMA and COMEX”. 

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: EGGS

Egg Prices Sky-High As Breakfast Inflation Pressures American Households

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 01:40 PM

It’s no secret that breakfast food is more expensive than a year ago, yet another sign of how the cost-of-living crisis squeezes American household budgets. 

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index shows food at home prices climbed 10.4% in June over the past year. 

Breakfast is supposed to be the most affordable meal of the day — but as we’ve explained (read: here & here), soaring prices for coffee, milk, sugar, wheat, oats, eggs, and orange juice have transformed breakfast into a costly meal. 

Focusing on eggs, once considered the cheapest source of protein, has seen wholesale prices for a dozen large eggs more than triple in one year.

As if inflation wasn’t enough, one of the worst-ever bird flu outbreaks resulted in the death of more than 30 million commercial and wild birds, reducing egg production capacity

The good news is that Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., the largest US fresh egg producer, said in a recent earnings statement the bird flu outbreak appears to be waning as no infections have been reported in its flocks since early June. 

With inflation broad-based, June’s overall CPI print was hotter than expected at 9.1%, up half a percentage point from last month and the highest since 1981. Looking at this in another way to capture economic distress felt by everyday people is the “misery index” — which combines US labor force participation with CPI – hasn’t been this high since the stagflationary period more than four decades ago.

Last Friday, disappointing retail sales sparked some concern that consumers are tapped out. 

Meanwhile, the White House, through President Biden’s Twitter account, called the latest inflation figures “not acceptable.” They noted consumers had saved 40 cents per gallon over the past month. Despite the savings at the pump, Biden’s polling data has yet to reverse from record lows. 

Americans are waking up to the lies the Biden administration pushed about “transitory” inflation and how they openly lied this entire time. 

Combine skyrocketing breakfast costs with elevated gas prices at the pump; no wonder consumers are miserable. People will vote with their empty wallets come November’s midterm elections. 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7583

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7613

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 34.51 PTS OR  0.17%

2. Nikkei closed UP 111.66 OR 0.40%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  106,80/Euro FALLS TO 1.0178

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.213/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.88/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.045%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.27%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.28//

3j Gold at $1725.60 silver at: 18.83  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1  AND 1/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 57.73

3m oil into the 95 dollar handle for WTI and  103 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.88DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9649– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9819well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.801  DOWN 11  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.008  DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.76

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Rally Fizzles After Volley Of Disappointing Earnings And Economic News

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 07:59 AM

US futures were flat (bouncing off session lows), and a rally in tech stocks reversed after three days of gains as recessionary PMI data out of Europe and disappointing results from COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX and others raised concerns about sliding corporate profits amid slowing economic growth. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.5% as 7:30am in New York, while S&P futures ticked 0.3% lower, but are on pace to close the week more than 3% higher after solid rallies in the past two days.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index added 0.5%, poised for a weekly advance as investors shrugged off worries about the economic outlook prompted by the worst Euro Area PMI data which dropped to a 17-month low in July, dipping beneath the level that signals a contraction, and confirming Europe has entered a recession. The downturn was driven by worsening output among manufacturers and a near-stalling of service-sector growth. Economists had expected a mild expansion.

Despite the dismal European economic data, global stocks remain on course for their best week in a month, paring this year’s equity market rout to about 18% amid speculation that the world is headed for a recession which will force central banks to end their tightening earlier than expected. Earnings have been a mixed bag so far in Q2, with the scandal-plagued Twitter due to report results later.

“Q2 earnings were seemingly not as bad as feared,” Mizuho International Plc strategists Peter McCallum and Evelyne Gomez-Liechti wrote in a note to clients. “That said, tech giants announced spending cuts and a hiring slowdown. Consumer firms lowered this year’s guidance.”

In premarket trading, Snap shares plunged 28% as the company reported missed its already slashed guidance and removed guidance, roiled partly by a major slowdown in ad spending. Other social media-linked stocks, including Facebook-owner Meta Platforms, Google-parent Alphabet and Twitter, also fell. Meanwhile, Seagate Technology shares are down 13% in premarket trading, after the computer hardware and storage company issued a weak forecast for the current period. Intuitive Surgical shares plunged 12% in US premarket trading after the company’s second-quarter profit and revenue both missed the average analyst estimate. At least four analysts cut their PTs on the surgical systems maker, noting the capital concerns and macro headwinds that weighed on the performance. Verizon slumped more than 2% after the company slashed its FY adj EPS range from $5.40-$5.55 to $5.10-$5.25.It wasn’t all bad news: American Express jumped after reporting that spending on its network soared, leading the firm to raise its forecast for full-year revenue.

“The Snap results came as a warning for other Big Tech names that rely on ad revenue,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “The results could reverse appetite for at least a couple of them, including Google and Meta before the closing bell.” 

These technology heavyweights, which led the rally in US stocks following the pandemic-driven slump in early 2020, have been among the biggest decliners this year as the Federal Reserve began an aggressive cycle of interest rate increases. The tech sector has been particularly vulnerable as higher rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits, hurting growth shares with the highest valuations. With the Fed expected to announce another hike at its meeting next week, focus has been on the second-quarter earnings season for clues on how companies are holding up amid surging inflation and a possible looming recession.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5%. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.6%, FTSE 100 is flat but underperforms peers. Travel, real estate and utilities are the strongest performing Stoxx 600 sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Uniper shares were volatile after Germany confirmed the rescue package for the utility. The shares pared earlier gains of as much as 11% to briefly turn negative. Majority-owner Fortum rose as much as 13%.
  • Delivery Hero shares surge as much as 21%, the most since December 2019, after lifting full-year adjusted Ebitda margin target.
  • Beazley shares jump as much as 13% to the highest in more than two years after an upgrade to profit guidance driven by cyber insurance.
  • Sinch shares jump as much as 15% following a volatile run for the cloud messaging platform firm, with Handelsbanken saying its recent results contained few positive surprises but that there are good operational signs.
  • Stora Enso shares fall as much as 9.8%, the most since May, after a quarterly update analysts say looks somewhat soft, with a miss on earnings for the Finnish packaging and forestry group.
  • Lonza shares fall as much as 3.4% after it reported 1H results. While noting the Swiss company is a “structural long- term growth story,” the lack of an upgrade to 2022 outlook may leave some disappointed, Jefferies says.
  • Aston Martin shares fall as much as 13%, paring the gains of the past week, as Jefferies says the announced boost to the company’s capital structure leaves open questions, with the stock likely to remain “volatile” in coming weeks.
  • Temenos shares drop as much as 7.7%. 2Q results missed estimates and analysts anticipate investors may be skeptical that the software firm will be able to hits its confirmed FY guidance.
  • Electrolux Professional shares fall as much as 6.5%, after component shortages eroded the appliance manufacturer’s margins in the second quarter.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for the biggest weekly gain in four months as renewed optimism in Chinese technology shares helped offset downbeat sentiment triggered by a disappointing earnings report by Snap Inc. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was poised for a slight gain Friday, maintaining a weekly rally of more than 3%. Shares in Hong Kong edged higher, with a gauge tracking China’s technology sector posting a three-day gain, while Japanese stocks also gained.  Investors are looking anew at China’s tech sector after Beijing wrapped up a year-long probe into ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc., which was fined $1.2 billion. Sentiment has improved as US chipmaker stocks staged a stunning rebound on evidence that supply-chain issues are easing and demand is growing. 

Asian stocks are up less than 1% so far this month after slumping almost 7% in June, the market’s worst month in over two years, as traders pared expectations of aggressive monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and as the dollar softened. “Recession risks have definitely risen in the developed markets, but one of the bright spots that we’re seeing is really in places like Asia ex-Japan, where a lot of economies are still continuing to reopen pretty strongly,” Clara Cheong, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. Expectations China will rebound in the second half should “help to bolster Chinese equity markets and the broader Asia ex-Japan region,” Cheong said.

Japanese equities erased earlier losses as investors assessed US earnings results amid economic uncertainty.  The Topix index rose 0.3% to 1,955.97 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% to 27,914.66. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,147 rose and 865 fell, while 158 were unchanged. “Strong US markets were a supporting factor for Japanese stocks today,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Mitsui DS Asset Management

Key stock gauges in India completed their best weekly performance since early-February 2021 as foreign funds turned buyers. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.7% to 56,072.23 in Mumbai, taking its weekly gain to 4.3%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also rose 0.7% Friday. Nine of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of lenders. Foreigners net-bought more than $1 billion of local stocks this week through July 20, after 15 straight weeks of net selling. Read: After $30 Billion Exodus, Global Money Trickles Back Into India The decline in crude oil prices and rebound in foreign inflows helped the Sensex to close above 56,000, Amol Athawale, vice president at Kotak Securities, wrote in a note.  “The fear of aggressive rate hikes by both the US Fed and RBI seems to be moderating, which is giving investors some room to lap up stocks of companies with good fundamentals,” Athawale said.  In earnings, Reliance Industries Ltd., India’s biggest company by market value, is scheduled to announce results later Friday. Infosys, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank are due to report their results over the weekend.

In FX, the euro turned lower, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Index to only its second daily advance this week after flash PMI data in France, Germany and the euro zone as a whole disappointed. The euro dropped as much as 1% to $1.0130.  UK readings were in line with expectations. CAD and CHF are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, EUR and DKK underperform.

In rates, Treasuries were richer across the curve, following wider rally seen in bunds after flash PMI data in France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole disappointed and entered contraction territory. US yields richer by up to 6.5bp across 5-year sector, tightening the 2s5s30s fly byb 6.5bp on the day, adding to Thursday’s belly-led gains. US 10-year yields around 2.82%, richer by 5.5bp on the day with bunds outperforming by ~10bp in the sector. Three-month dollar Libor -1.67bp at 2.76629%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; Thursday saw a quiet session for issuance, following a rush of deals seen at the start of the week.

European bonds also rallied, led by the short-end, with 2-year German bond yields falling as much as 25 basis points to 0.42%, its biggest plunge since 2008 on expectations a recession is now unevitable; money markets traders no longer fully price in a 50-basis-point ECB hike in September. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy tightens, Spain and Portugal widen.

In commodities, crude futures dropped 2% erasing an earlier gain after the catastrophic european economic data. Most base metals trade in the green; LME aluminum rises 1.5%, outperforming peers. LME tin lags, dropping 0.9% Spot gold is little changed at $1,718/oz

Bitcoin remains bid and has eclipsed the USD 23.5k mark at best, though this was brief and it has since waned marginally.

Looking to the day ahead, and the main data highlight will be the global flash PMIs for July. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Earnings releases include Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, American Express and Twitter.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,987.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 425.79
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 159.10
  • MXAPJ little changed at 521.40
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,914.66
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,955.97
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 20,609.14
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,269.97
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 56,083.03
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,791.50
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,393.14
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.07%
  • Euro down 0.7% to $1.0157
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,719.20
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.21% to 107.14

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021, adding to signs that a recession might be on the horizon. A survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global dropped to a 17- month low in July, dipping beneath the level that signals contraction.
  • US social-media giants shed nearly $47 billion in market value in extended trading Thursday, as disappointing revenue from Snap Inc. raised concerns about the outlook for online advertising.
  • Former President Donald Trump ignored pleas to call off the mob storming the US Capitol and remained publicly silent as he watched the violence unfold on television from his personal dining room off the Oval Office, according to evidence and testimony to the committee investigating last year’s insurrection.
  • US equity futures fell Friday and Asian stocks wavered after disappointment over technology earnings stoked worries about the economic outlook and took some of the shine off this week’s global equity rebound.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher after the gains in the US but with upside capped by lingering growth concerns. ASX 200 was rangebound near the 6,800 level after PMI data slowed but remained in expansion territory. Nikkei 225 was kept afloat after the recent dovish affirmations from the BoJ and Governor Kuroda but with gains limited amid the COVID situation and with Core Inflation rising by its fastest pace in 7 years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed amid earnings releases and with suggestions that President Biden could temporarily reduce China tariffs in response to supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.

Top Asian News

  • US Democrat Rep. Ami Bera said President Biden could opt for a “temporary reduction” of Trump-era tariffs on China in response to supply chain disruptions and rising inflation, according to Nikkei.
  • Hong Kong Faces First Prime Rate Hike Since 2018 on Hawkish Fed
  • South Korea Restores Military Drills Once Reduced to Help Trump
  • China Says Japan ‘Shall Pay’ If It Handles Fukushima Water Wrong
  • Russia Rises With China in Latest Japan Threat Assessment
  • UK Politicians Voice Concern Over HSBC China Communist Committee
  • Inflation to Drive RBI’s Rate Action Rather Than Rupee, DBS Says

European bourses are resilient despite Flash PMIs for June moving into contractionary territory, with the regions upside perhaps derived from potential less-hawkish ECB implications.  Stateside, futures are subdued but have been fairly contained after late Wall St. action and ahead of further key earnings. Sectors are mostly in the green and feature upside in Real Estate and Travel while Banks, Resources and Autos lag.

Top European News

  • Euro-Zone Activity Is Suddenly Shrinking in Ominous Growth Sign
  • Crude Fluctuates Amid Soft European Economic Data
  • UK Businesses Say Economic Growth Slowed to a Crawl in July
  • Delivery Hero Cuts Order Forecast for 2022 With Growth Slowing
  • Russia Rises With China in Latest Japan Threat Assessment

FX

  • Euro reverses further from post-ECB hike peaks after dire EZ PMIs, including sub-50 manufacturing headlines – EUR/USD down to circa 1.0130 and only finding support ahead of 10 DMA.
  • Pound down in sympathy, but holding up better around 1.1950 vs Greenback as UK retail sales come in above forecast along with preliminary PMIs.
  • Aussie hampered by slowdown in PMIs and hefty option expiries at the 0.6900 strike.
  • Yen and Franc cushioned by soft yields to an extent and DXY fading into 107.500, USD/JPY middle of 137.95-02 range and USD/CHF nearer base of 0.9706-0.9658 band.
  • Loonie retains 1.2800 handle as oil settles down somewhat in the run up to Canadian consumption data.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds extend already extensive recovery rallies from post-ECB hike lows.
  • Bunds up to 154.32 from 149.69 at worst yesterday, Gilts to 117.43 from 114.20 and 10 year T-note at 119-24 compared to 117-14+.
  • Curves bull steepen as poor EZ PMIs prompt further rollback of tightening expectations.
  • BTPs latch on to the bid after early Italian political wobble as 10 year benchmark rebounds from 120.85 to 123.241, at best.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks have given up initial gains following the release of Flash PMIs which point to a Q3 QQ EZ GDP contraction; prior to this, contracts were firmer.
  • TotalEnergies (TTE FP) commits to a large-scale fuel price reduction programme until end-2022 for all service stations in France. September 1st – November 1st: EUR 0.20/litre reduction vs global market quotation prices; November 1st – December 1st: EUR 0.10/litre reduction vs global market quotation prices.
  • UN spokesperson expects the signature of the grains agreement between Russia and Ukraine to take place today at 14:30BST/09:30EDT.
  • Spot gold continues to inch higher above the USD 1700/oz mark and has risen as high as USD 1725/oz thus far.

ECB

  • ECB SPF (Q3). HICP Inflation: 2022 7.3% (prev. 6.0%; ECB June 6.8%,) 2023 3.6% (prev. 2.4%; ECB June 2.1%), 2024 2.1% (prev. 1.9%; ECB June 2.1%), Longer-term/2027 2.2% (prev. 2026 2.1%). Click here for more detail.
  • ECB’s de Cos says the most important aspect of the anti-fragmentation tool is its creation.
  • ECB’s Kazimir says the September rate hike could be 25bps or 50bps, via Bloomberg; it will take a while to get inflation to desired levels, wishes to never use TPI but “we will see”.
  • ECB’s Villeroy says, if necessary, we will be as determined in activating TPI as we have been in creating it, no pre-defined limits to purchases.
  • Bundesbank says Germany faces slower growth and new spike in inflation; expects inflation to remain high in the coming months and spike in September once govt subsidies on fuel and rail tickets expire on Aug 31st.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: July S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.4, prior 52.3
  • 09:45: July S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.7, prior 52.7
  • 09:45: July S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 52.0, prior 52.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m off to my colleague Henry’s wedding tomorrow. He was in charge of the EMR yesterday and mentioned his upcoming nuptials. A number of people didn’t read properly that the EMR was coming from his email address yesterday and congratulated me on getting married instead. I’m afraid I don’t have much time for bigamy at the moment.

Markets were as volatile yesterday as my wife would be if I told her I was getting married tomorrow as they grappled with the first ECB rate hike in over a decade, the resignation of Italian PM Draghi and fresh elections set for September, a market disappointment by the ECB anti-fragmentation tool, the resumption of gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline, a US President who has Covid, poor Snap earnings and last but not least signs of softening in the US labour market. That accumulation of downside risks saw a huge rally in US rates but was not enough to knock risk markets off their stride, with the S&P 500 (+0.99%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.44%) both gaining ground after a back and forth day. Futures are down as well on the after hours Snap results. Sovereign bonds actually initially sold off in reaction to the ECB, but worries about Italy and fears of a global recession eventually dominated to send core sovereign yields mostly lower on the day, especially in the US, just as other cyclical assets like oil prices fell back as well.

Running through all that, we’ll start with the ECB which our Europe economics team wraps up in full here. They begun their hiking cycle with a 50bp hike for all three of their main interest rates, which leaves the deposit facility rate at 0%, and the main refinancing rate at 0.5%. There are a number of lessons we can take from this, but a key one is that forward guidance appears to be dead, as this went against the ECB’s explicit comments from their June meeting, when they indicated they intended to commence with a 25bps move. And in their statement this time around, they said that the Governing Council would “make a transition to a meeting-by-meeting approach to interest rate decisions.” Bear in mind that it was only at the start of this week that the possibility of a 50bps hike began to be taken seriously following a number of media reports, so we could have to get increasingly used to a world in which central bank decisions remain in doubt up to just a few days before, which is unlike what we’ve been used to in recent years, when markets have been strongly guided towards specific outcomes way before the meetings themselves. Our Europe economists expect at least another 100bps of hikes in the near term and maintain their call for a 2% terminal rate, even if it is delayed until 2024 over a two-stage hiking cycle that has to pause because of a recession.

As well as the decision to hike, the ECB also announced their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which they said could be “activated to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across the euro area.” Notably for markets, they further said that “The scale of TPI purchases depends on the severity of the risks facing policy transmission. Purchases are not restricted ex ante.” So an indication that purchases can be unlimited. There were some conditions applied to the TPI, including that the country is complying with the EU fiscal framework and is not subject to an excessive deficit procedure. But the ECB clearly see this as enabling them to go further as they hike, and openly drew a link in saying that “the reinforced support provided by the TPI” was something that enabled them “to take a larger first step on its policy rate normalisation path than signalled” in June.

Overall the market didn’t seem to like the complexity of the TPI vehicle but perhaps the main issue was that it made its debut on the same day as Draghi officially resigned and triggered fresh elections on September 25th. The ECB can’t help but hang over the election campaign now.

The initial reaction to the ECB’s decision (pre-press conference and US data) was a sharp sell-off among European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds up by +11.7bps shortly after the decision came through. However, they then entirely pared back that increase to end the day -3.7bps lower. That came as markets moved to price an even more aggressive hiking cycle, with +144bps worth of further hikes at the remaining 3 meetings this year, so just shy of pricing continued 50bp hikes at the remaining meetings this year.

However, even as the ECB unveiled their new instrument, Italian spreads continued to widen against the backdrop of continued political turmoil in the country, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields over bunds up by +18.0bps to 230bps. That came as Prime Minister Draghi delivered his resignation to President Mattarella yesterday morning, with the latter subsequently dissolving parliament. Draghi will remain in office in a caretaker capacity until Italy stages early elections on September 25, with the center-right bloc currently leading the polls.

In more positive news yesterday, partial gas supplies resumed through the Nord Stream pipeline as its scheduled maintenance came to an end. The line is still only running at 40% of capacity so we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, but clearly this is much better than the complete shut-off that some had feared in recent days. The big question is what will happen as we move towards the colder months in Europe, with major efforts underway to build up gas storage and reduce demand ahead of then. Our German economists reacted to the news with another gas supply monitor (link here). The 40% supply is clearly far from secured going forward with fresh turbine servicing rows looking possible next week and beyond. One interesting conclusion from the note was that if 40% flowed up until the end of September and then a complete shutdown followed through the winter, Germany would likely run out of gas at some point in April assuming a normal amount of that gas was exported. Given that the government wouldn’t likely let storage go below 10%, such a scenario would likely involve rationing.

Anyway with a very very big week for Europe now past its peak, the next big focal point for markets comes with the Fed’s next decision on Wednesday. Sadly there wasn’t much in the way of good news on the US economy ahead of that, as the weekly initial jobless claims pointed to a softening labour market, although to be fair that’s part of the reason for rate hikes. For the week through July 16, they came in at an 8-month high of 251k, and this wasn’t just a one-off, with the smoother 4-week moving average now at a 7-week high of 240.5k. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for July fell to -12.3 (vs. 0.8 expected), which is its lowest level since May 2020. Tim and Henry on my team have been putting out a weekly “recession watch” monitor that shows how recent data and broader developments push us closer to or farther away from imminent recession. Yesterday’s edition is here.

Yesterday’s run of more gloomy data releases meant that investors became more pessimistic on the ability of the Fed to keep hiking rates much above neutral and yields on 10yr Treasuries came down by -15.2bps over the day, closing at 2.87%, in what was largely a parallel shift on the 2s10s yield curve which wound up little changed. This morning in Asia, 10yr yields have edged +1.87 bps higher as I type. Even with the worsening growth outlook, however, our US economists have just put out a piece arguing that the Fed cannot reverse course and start cutting rates next year unless inflation materially slows, unemployment moves above 6%, and the Fed reaction function starts to take labour slack into consideration contrary to their recent one-track focus on inflation. See the full piece here.

In the current environment, bad news has been good news for equities, as the market anticipates that the Fed will have to ease off the gas sooner rather than later. Yesterday that translated to a +0.99% gain in the S&P, led by tech and mega-cap firms who’s valuations are particularly sensitive to the Fed. This drove the NASDAQ +1.36% higher and the FANG+ Index +2.33% higher. To drive the point home, since growth fears first sent jitters through markets in mid-June, driving a re-pricing lower of Fed terminal rates, the NASDAQ has rallied +13.28% from its YTD lows while FANG+ has increased +15.69% from just above its YTD lows. The tech and mega-cap groupings were likely aided by Tesla’s earnings (up +9.78%) which came out the night before. Indeed, it was a rather strong day for S&P 500 earnings across the board, with 23 companies reporting during trading and 19 beating analyst earnings estimates. After hours though, Snap saw shares sink more than -20% after advertisers left the platform, and there were further reports that tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft were planning on slowing or freezing hiring, so we’ll see if some of that positive tech sentiment reverses today. So far contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.40%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.77%) are notably lower. Twitter continues the tech earnings today.

Equities in Asian markets are still generally trading in positive territory this morning but the scale of this reflects the after hours set back. The Nikkei (+0.24%) is recovering from initial losses with the Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Composite (+0.28%) and the CSI (+0.25%) also slightly higher in early trade. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.37%) is weak with the new conservative government’s plan to cut corporate taxes having a limited impact on sentiment as the move is subject to approval from the opposition-controlled parliament.

Early this morning, data showed that Japan’s headline inflation edged down to +2.4% y/y in June (v/s +2.5% in May) but Core-CPI inflation advanced to +2.2% in June from +2.1% in May, both in line with consensus estimates but remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target. Separately, Japan’s July factory activity growth slowed to a 10-month low as the Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.2 in July from the previous month’s final reading of 52.7 as output and new orders contracted. At the same time, services also expanded at a slower rate as the flash PMI weakened to 51.2 in July from June’s final 54.0, suggesting a more subdued demand at home as a weaker yen increased import costs.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the global flash PMIs for July. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Earnings releases include Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, American Express and Twitter.

END

 SECOND, NEWSQUAWK

European bourses resilient to PMIs though EUR dips and fixed is firmer – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 06:44 AM

  • European bourses are resilient despite Flash PMIs for June contracting, while US futures are subdued but rangebound
  • DXY climbs amid EUR pressure post-PMIs, with the USD weighing on peers in turn though JPY & CHF benefit from yield action
  • Core debt extends on post-ECB recovery rallies amidst this and curves steepen amid a paring of tightening expectations
  • Crude benchmarks surrender APAC upside on contraction concerns and remain focused on Nord Stream developments
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Flash PMIs, CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian Foreign Ministry said the latest round of EU sanctions will have disastrous consequences for parts of the world economy, while it hopes the EU move to expand sanction relief will create conditions for unhindered export of grains and fertilisers, according to Reuters.
  • Turkish President Erdogan’s office said the signing ceremony for a grain export deal will be on Friday with Russia, Ukraine and UN’s Guterres.
  • Russian Kremlin denies reports on the Nord Stream 1 turbine being stuck in transit, labelling it “nonsense”.

OTHER

  • South Korean President Yoon said North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time, according to Yonhap. It was separately reported that South Korea and the US will resume live field training during their military drills which begin next month, according to Reuters citing the Defence Ministry.
  • Explosions were reported in Damascus with Syrian air defences intercepting Israeli missiles over the city, according to state media.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are resilient despite Flash PMIs for June moving into contractionary territory, with the regions upside perhaps derived from potential less-hawkish ECB implications.
  • Stateside, futures are subdued but have been fairly contained after late Wall St. action and ahead of further key earnings.
  • Sectors are mostly in the green and feature upside in Real Estate and Travel while Banks, Resources and Autos lag.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Euro reverses further from post-ECB hike peaks after dire EZ PMIs, including sub-50 manufacturing headlines – EUR/USD down to circa 1.0130 and only finding support ahead of 10 DMA.
  • Pound down in sympathy, but holding up better around 1.1950 vs Greenback as UK retail sales come in above forecast along with preliminary PMIs.
  • Aussie hampered by slowdown in PMIs and hefty option expiries at the 0.6900 strike.
  • Yen and Franc cushioned by soft yields to an extent and DXY fading into 107.500, USD/JPY middle of 137.95-02 range and USD/CHF nearer base of 0.9706-0.9658 band.
  • Loonie retains 1.2800 handle as oil settles down somewhat in the run up to Canadian consumption data.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds extend already extensive recovery rallies from post-ECB hike lows.
  • Bunds up to 154.32 from 149.69 at worst yesterday, Gilts to 117.43 from 114.20 and 10 year T-note at 119-24 compared to 117-14+.
  • Curves bull steepen as poor EZ PMIs prompt further rollback of tightening expectations.
  • BTPs latch on to the bid after early Italian political wobble as 10 year benchmark rebounds from 120.85 to 123.241, at best.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks have given up initial gains following the release of Flash PMIs which point to a Q3 QQ EZ GDP contraction; prior to this, contracts were firmer.
  • TotalEnergies (TTE FP) commits to a large-scale fuel price reduction programme until end-2022 for all service stations in France. September 1st – November 1st: EUR 0.20/litre reduction vs global market quotation prices; November 1st – December 1st: EUR 0.10/litre reduction vs global market quotation prices.
  • UN spokesperson expects the signature of the grains agreement between Russia and Ukraine to take place today at 14:30BST/09:30EDT.
  • Spot gold continues to inch higher above the USD 1700/oz mark and has risen as high as USD 1725/oz thus far.
  • Click here for more detail.

ECB

  • ECB SPF (Q3). HICP Inflation: 2022 7.3% (prev. 6.0%; ECB June 6.8%,) 2023 3.6% (prev. 2.4%; ECB June 2.1%), 2024 2.1% (prev. 1.9%; ECB June 2.1%), Longer-term/2027 2.2% (prev. 2026 2.1%). Click here for more detail.
  • ECB’s de Cos says the most important aspect of the anti-fragmentation tool is its creation.
  • ECB’s Kazimir says the September rate hike could be 25bps or 50bps, via Bloomberg; it will take a while to get inflation to desired levels, wishes to never use TPI but “we will see”.
  • ECB’s Villeroy says, if necessary, we will be as determined in activating TPI as we have been in creating it, no pre-defined limits to purchases.
  • Bundesbank says Germany faces slower growth and new spike in inflation; expects inflation to remain high in the coming months and spike in September once govt subsidies on fuel and rail tickets expire on Aug 31st.

DATA RECAP

  • UK Retail Sales MM (Jun) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.8%); YY (Jun) -5.8% vs. Exp. -5.3% (Prev. -4.7%)
  • Ex-Fuel MM (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.7%, Rev. -1.0%); YY (Jun) -5.9% vs. Exp. -6.3% (Prev. -5.7%, Rev. -5.5%)
  • EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Jul) 49.4 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 52.0); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jul) 49.6 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 52.1); Services Flash PMI (Jul) 50.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 53.0)
  • UK Flash Services PMI (Jul) 53.3 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 54.3); Composite PMI (Jul) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 53.7); Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.8)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) -41 vs. Exp. -42.0 (Prev. -41.0)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin remains bid and has eclipsed the USD 23.5k mark at best, though this was brief and it has since waned marginally.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly higher after the gains in the US but with upside capped by lingering growth concerns.
  • ASX 200 was rangebound near the 6,800 level after PMI data slowed but remained in expansion territory.
  • Nikkei 225 was kept afloat after the recent dovish affirmations from the BoJ and Governor Kuroda but with gains limited amid the COVID situation and with Core Inflation rising by its fastest pace in 7 years.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed amid earnings releases and with suggestions that President Biden could temporarily reduce China tariffs in response to supply chain disruptions and rising inflation.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US Democrat Rep. Ami Bera said President Biden could opt for a “temporary reduction” of Trump-era tariffs on China in response to supply chain disruptions and rising inflation, according to Nikkei.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.1%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%)
  • Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Jun P) 52.2 (Prev. 52.7); Services PMI (Jun P) 51.2 (Prev. 54.0)
  • Australian Manufacturing PMI (Jul P) 55.7 (Prev. 56.2); Services PMI (Jul P) 50.4 (Prev. 52.6)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.03 PTS OR 0.06%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.51 OR 0.17%    /The Nikkei closed UP 111.66 OR % 0.40.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.09%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7583//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.613//    /Oil DOWN TO 95.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 103.13// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.03 PTS OR 0.06%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.51 OR 0.17%    /The Nikkei closed UP 111.66 OR % 0.40.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.09%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//COVID

CHINA/

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU//update

IEA chief pounds the table that Europe must cut gas usage by 20% to survive this winter. Gazprom is sending only 40% of capacity

(Charles Kennedy/OilPrice.com)

IEA Chief: Europe Must Cut Gas Usage 20% To Survive Winter

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

After calling on all member states to reduce gas consumption by 15% in the face of the threat of a complete Russian gas cutoff, the IEA says the European Union will need to cut even more in order to get through the winter. 

“Even if there is no single accident… #Europe still needs to reduce its gas consumption about 20% compared to today in order to have safe and normal winter months,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said, issuing what he called a “red alert” for energy markets. 

The short-term issue with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may have been resolved, Birol told CNN, but “it’s too early to be happy about this”. 

The amount Europe is receiving now from Russia is only about one-third of what it was receiving prior to the force majeure, and the IEA chief warned that even that reduced flow “can be cut anytime”.  

After a 10-day pause for regular maintenance, Russian gas flows via Nord Stream resumed on Thursday morning, with orders for gas set at around 40% of Nord Stream’s capacity, the level from before the maintenance after Russia slashed flows in mid-June. Flows early on Thursday were at around 21.5 GWh, compared to 30GWh prior to the start of maintenance on July 11th, and compared to 70 GWh before Russia reduced supplies by 60% on June 13th. 

On Wednesday, the European Commission unveiled measures for the bloc to conserve gas to pre-empt a Russian cutoff, asking member states to reduce consumption by 15% until next spring. 

According to Birol, this won’t be enough to ensure a smooth winter for Europe, and there is no alternative to consumption reductions. 

Even assuming that the current Russian gas flow is maintained, and considering all the LNG Europe is getting from the United States and elsewhere, plus other natural gas sources, and even if there are no accidents that hamper supply, Europe still needs to reduce more, starting now, Birol said. 

There is not enough gas around the world for Europe to rely on, the IAE chief said, and there is no choice but to reduce consumption to avoid shortages and rationing this winter. If the bloc waits, and fails to adopt a coordinated method, once we get into the winter months, the measures will be “more drastic”. 

Birol is calling on Europe to develop an emergency plan, noting that Germany is the most vulnerable, followed by Italy and some Eastern European countries.

end

Strange!

(zerohedge)

Russia Rejects As “Nonsense” Report Saying Nord Stream Turbine Is Stuck In Transit

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Moscow has rejected accusations that it is intentionally stalling the delivery of a turbine crucial for the proper long-term functioning of the Nord Stream 1 Russia to Germany natural gas pipeline, instead placing the blame squarely on the West and its sanctions.

The turbine had been in Canada at a Siemens facility – the only place in the world where it can be worked on – but is now said to be en route back to Russia, only to be held up in Germany, or “stuck in transit”, as Reuters reported. But the Kremlin on Friday has rejected this narrative, calling the report “nonsense”. 

Specifically Kremlin officials are rejecting the following: “Reuters reported on Thursday that Russia had not yet given the go-ahead to transport the turbine back to Russia, citing two people familiar with the matter” – given the suggestion Moscow is intentionally delaying for the sake of further stalling gas deliveries to Europe. 

The conflict is being chalked up essentially to Russian authorities not issuing the proper permits to transport the turbine back, hiding efforts to disrupt energy to Europe by leveraging bureaucratic paperwork.

“The accusations are groundless. The sources are wrong,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, calling the charge “nonsense”. Nord Stream 1 was cut to 40% of its capacity starting in June due to what Russia at the time blamed on Canadian sanctions enforcement delaying the turbine’s return.

Canada this month said it granted a special sanctions waiver for the turbine’s return, citing solidarity with European allies like Germany badly in need of the smooth return of natural gas supply operations.

But now this has descended into a big he said, she said geopolitical fight at a moment diminishing gas supplies to Europe hang in the balance. Again, Russia has sought to stress that it’s the turbine holdup due to Western sanctions enforced by Canada to blame for the EU’s gas crisis. And according to the latest developments via newswires, Russia is saying it hasn’t heard any definitive communications from Siemens:

  • GAZPROM: SIEMENS HAS NOT PROVIDED ANY TURBINE PAPERS YET
  • SIEMENS DEAL DOESN’T INCLUDE EXTRA OBLIGATIONS FROM GAZPROM:CO.
  • GAZPROM ONCE AGAIN ASKS SIEMENS TO PROVIDE TURBINE PAPERS

Berlin and other European countries have countered that this is all part of Putin’s “weaponization of energy” and that the turbine controversy is just cover to stall gas deliveries further.

It’s all the fault of sanctions, Moscow says…

This week the European Commission proposed drastic collective action in the form of a 15% “voluntary” reduction in gas consumption across all member countries over the next eight months, with an emergency “alert” option that would allow for rationing to be mandated by the European executive.

end

Russia will not sell oil to any country that has a cap on price

(zerohedge)

Russia Will Not Sell Oil To Countries That Cap Price

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 11:40 AM

While the dumbest guys in the room – that would be energy advisors to the Biden admin (including Burisma consultant Hunter Biden), G7 and Europe – continue to push a Russian oil price cap plan, Russia is making it very clear what will happen if this step is implemented: “As far as I understand,” Russia won’t supply oil to those countries that impose price caps, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina tells news conference on Friday. She echoed Vladimir Putin, saying that imposition of price cap on Russian oil would raise global prices, and added that Russia is working on its own oil price benchmark.

Her comments follow those from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak who told state television on Wednesday that Russia will not supply oil to the global markets if the price cap being discussed is set at a level below Russia’s cost of production.

“If the price cap they are talking about is lower than the cost of crude oil production…naturally Russia will not supply that crude on the global markets, which means that we will simply not pump oil at a loss,” Novak was quoted by news agency TASS as saying according to OilPrice.  

For weeks, the U.S. and partners have been discussing ideas to cut Vladimir Putin’s revenues, including banning all services enabling Russian oil shipments unless buyers pay for Russia’s oil at or below a certain price.

“A price cap on Russian oil is one of our most powerful tools to address the pain that Americans and families across the world are feeling at the gas pump and the grocery store right now,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said earlier this month at the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Bali, Indonesia. 

The United States hopes that there will be an agreement on capping the price of Russian oil by December, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Wednesday.  

Russia’s exports of crude and refined products held resilient in June, while export revenues jumped due to the higher oil prices, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Russian crude and product exports dropped by 250,000 bpd from May to average 7.4 million bpd in June, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report. Although the export volumes last month were the lowest since August 2021, Russia’s export revenues increased by $700 million from May on higher oil prices, to $20.4 billion in June, or 40% above last year’s average, the IEA said.  

END

EU/RUSSIA/NATURAL GAS/IMF

IMF warns that Russian gas shutoff would cause EU recession

(zerohedge)

Late To The Party? IMF Warns That Russian Gas Shutoff Would Cause EU Recession

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 06:55 AM

While the recent scare over the Russian maintenance shutdown of Nord Stream 1 appears to be ended with natural gas supplies now flowing once again, the overall threat still remains and winter is coming faster than many Europeans like to think about.  The danger of Russian retaliation against EU sanctions is ever present and the only thing that seems to be preventing them from cutting off 40% of Europe’s energy supply is geopolitical optics.  

The concern over winning hearts and minds may be fleeting for the Kremlin, as sanctions continue to pile up over the war in Ukraine.  There is also another factor to consider – The “Great Reset” and the “Shared Economy” promoted by globalist institutions like the World Economic Forum and the International Monetary Fund.  A large scale economic crisis within the EU and the US could very well be exploited by these institutions to expedite their agenda to rewrite the very foundations of our economic framework and erase the last vestiges of free markets forever.  

In other words, a shut down of natural gas supplies by Russia and an economic plunge in Europe may very well serve their interests in the long term.  Not to mention, Russia will get all the blame for an economic crisis that was already going to happen anyway due to years of central bank fueled inflation.  

This may be why the IMF has been seemingly behind the curve in their analysis of the current situation.  It’s possible they are waiting to inform the public about the true nature of the economic threat until it is too late to do anything about it.     

The global banking establishment warned this week that a total shutdown of gas supplies to the EU would send many countries into a recessionary tailspin.  They specifically named Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Italy, Germany and Austria as particularly vulnerable, and warned these nations could see GDP losses of at least 6% (likely much greater).  

This in itself is not news to most people, as these countries are already facing stagflation pressures and have been for the past couple of years.  There has also already been a 60% drop in gas exports from Russia to Europe in the last several months.  However, what is news is the fact that the IMF has finally admitted to the greater problem of a full Russian shutdown.  

Initially, the establishment media and NATO suggested that Europe could easily cope with supply losses from Russia by seeking out alternative energy sources.  They also argued that Russia was incapable of ending gas exports to the EU because they need the European markets to survive.  But, the IMF now says that a total shutdown is entirely possible and would result in bottleneck dangers that would disrupt the EU’s ability to reroute gas and other supplies.  Meaning, they can handle a short term loss of a percentage of Russian gas imports (up to 70% according to the IMF), but not all Russian gas, and not for very long.

This is an abrupt shift from the mainstream narrative on sanctions by the western media and governments.  If anything, it highlights the reality that many in the public have been kept in the dark and misinformed about the true gravity of the situation.  With colder weather only a couple of months away, the question is not IF gas supplies will be cut, but how soon.  

In the meantime, the IMF circles the crisis like a shark waiting for an easy meal.  With multiple countries on the verge of severe recession and already dealing with profound stagflation, the IMF has set itself up as the lender of last resort as well as the “savior” of struggling nations in need of financial aid.  And, as always, whenever the IMF gets involved in a country’s economic problems, there will be strings attached.  

If there is a loss of Russian energy this year then it’s possible that EU members will be the first on the IMF’s hit list, and they could become the first western societies to see what the Great Reset agenda really entails.

end

EUROPE/PMI

Europe releases their flash PMI’s and it signals recession strangely after Europe’s first ECB rate hike in 11 years

(zerohedge)

PMIs Signal Eurozone Recession Day After First ECB Rate-Hike In 11 Years

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 07:33 AM

Oh the irony.

A day after Christine Lagarde hiked EU rates by 50bps (the first increase in rates in over a decade), S&P Global’s Flash Eurozone Composite PMI unexpectedly plunges into contraction.

Against expectations of a small weakening (from 52.0 to 51.0), the flash EZ Composite PMI tumbled to 49.4 (below 50 signaling contraction) in July, with manufacturing bearing the brung of the pain for now…

  • Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 50.6 (Jun: 53.0). 15-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing Output Index at 46.1 (Jun: 49.3). 26-month low.
  • Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI  at 49.6 (Jun: 52.1). 25-month low.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the third quarter as business activity slipped into decline in July and forward-looking indicators hint at worse to come in the months ahead.

Excluding pandemic lockdown months, July’s contraction is the first signalled by the PMI since June 2013, indicative of the economy contracting at a 0.1% quarterly rate. Although only modest at present, a steep loss of new orders, falling backlogs of work and gloomier business expectations all point to the rate of decline gathering further momentum as the summer progresses.

Of greatest concern is the plight of manufacturing, where producers are reporting that weaker than expected sales have led to an unprecedented rise in unsold stock. Production will likely need to be reduced as companies adapt to this weaker demand environment, in turn widely linked to rising prices.

In services, the boost to demand from the reopening of the economy has faded and growth is now at a near standstill, with customers often deterred by the increased cost of living and concerns about the outlook.

“Business expectations for the year ahead have meanwhile fallen to a level rarely seen over the past decade as concerns grow about the economic outlook, fuelled in part by rising worries over energy supply and inflation but also reflecting tighter financial conditions.

“With the ECB raising interest rates at a time when the demand environment is one that would normally see policy being loosened, higher borrowing costs will inevitably add to recession risks.

“One ray of light was a further marked cooling of inflationary pressures from the survey gauges of both input costs and selling prices, which should feed through to lower consumer price inflation. However, at present, these inflation gauges remain higher than at any time prior to the pandemic, underscoring the unenviable challenge facing policymakers of taming inflation while avoiding a hard landing for the economy.”

As a result of this, EU bond yields have puked lower with 10Y Bunds now down a stunning 35bps from yesterday’s highs…

And 2Y German yields crashed by the most ‘since Lehman’ in 2008…

How long before Christine flip-flops back to negative rates?

The market is pricing in ECB rate-cuts by May of next year.

end

GERMANY

As expected the German government bailed out uniper from the energy crisis

(zerohedge)

German Government Bails Out Uniper From Energy Crisis

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 08:44 AM

Germany energy giant and distressed natural gas utility Uniper, which is among the companies heavily exposed to Russian NatGas, secured a bailout with the German government, reported Bloomberg

Bailout terms call for state-owned lender KfW to receive a 30% stake in Uniper for 267 million euros with further capital up to 7.7 billion euros against the issuance of mandatory convertible instruments. KfW will provide an expanded credit line of 9 billion euros from 2 billion euros. 

The German government will introduce a cost absorption mechanism, covering 90% of all losses resulting from Uniper’s losses resulting from skyrocketing cost of NatGas purchases as Nordstream flows were reduced. 

Fortum Oyj, Uniper’s top shareholder, will maintain a majority stake but will be diluted to 56% from 80%. Fortum’s President and CEO Markus Rauramo released this statement about the bailout and ongoing energy crisis in Germany. 

“We are living through an unprecedented energy crisis that requires robust measures. After intensive but constructive negotiations, we found a solution that in an acceptable way met the interest of all parties involved.

“We were driven by urgency and the need to protect Europe’s security of supply in a time of war.” 

Uniper shares surged as much as 7% after Bloomberg reported the deal was in the final stage earlier this morning but have since reversed and are down 16%. Shares of the utility have plunged more than 78% this year, valuing the company at 3.2 billion euros. 

Uniper was hemorrhaging cash and had already drawn a 2 billion-euro credit line from KfW as talks about a bailout were first reported earlier this month. The utility had only received a fraction of its contracted NatGas volumes from Russian NatGas supplier Gazprom, forcing it to buy NatGas in higher spot markets — this is the issue that led to its demise. Explained below: 

Germany couldn’t let Uniper collapse as the fallout would roil the economy, already sliding into recession. Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently warned German’s energy crisis was at risk of a Lehman Brothers-like contagion. 

While flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline resumed Thursday after 10-day maintenance, deliveries remain down around 40% capacity, and injections into storage for winter were around 65% full. 

The move by the government to bailout Uniper will thwart economic turmoil by saving the utility and allow it to continue to purchase NatGas, even at a loss, to ensure the storage target of 90% is reached by November. 

END

ECB

A good read:Tom Luongo

(Tom Luongo)

ECB Raising Rates Is Europe’s Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, n’ Guns blog,

No matter what happens, as long as Davos feels they have control over US foreign policy they will continue to act as if everything is coming up roses for them as they trash the global economy.

This is why I find the myriad attacks against a mostly clueless Joe Biden so interesting right now. Is there a Davos pivot in the offing or is this another signal that sovereigntist forces within the US power structure are gaining the upper hand?

With that question in mind let’s put some context on recent European events and what they say about the global story unfolding in front of us.

The ECB finally raised rates for the first time since 2011, bringing the deposit facility rate to 0.0%, because I guess it would be beneath ‘European values’ for banks to have to pay to borrow money stolen from savers.

Some would be shocked (SHOCKED, I SAY!) that the ECB went up by 50 basis points (0.5%) today, but given the dramatic events in Italy just yesterday, how could they have really done otherwise without looking like the out of touch midwits they, in fact, are.

They just lost their top man in Italy and it looks like the populist right is set to take power in a core EU country in a couple of months without any of the Davos poison pill legislation getting passed.

Sound familiar? The same thing happened in the US last year and we’re now staring down the barrel of an historic wipeout of the Democrats in November’s mid-terms.

This is a real, serious loss for Davos, as I outlined in last week’s article on Draghi’s first resignation attempt.

But at the same time that the ECB raised interest rates, it also announced a new ‘without limit’ QE program called the Transmission Protection Instrument, because, as Zerohedge rightly points out, calling it “Italy specific QE sounds a little gauche.” I’d add it’s also against core European values like telling the truth.

ECB President Christine Lagarde was in full control in trying to outline this new experiment in monetary policy, clearly now more “art than science,” to quote Lagarde from the Before Time, you know, last week.

“We have everything under control,” has been the theme of all the headlines coming out of Europe this week. No matter the subject, even little things like the collapse of Mario Draghi’s Davos-backed government in Italy, can derail the European project.

It’s all good, we just have to stay the course, be ‘data-driven,’ and not yield on Europe’s core values, which, at this point amount to, trusting the arsonists to run the fire department.

To give you an idea of how deeply embedded this controlling idea is, earlier this week it was the statement from EU “Foreign Minister” Josep Borrell.  Europe, he said, must keep the pressure on Russia. It cannot “afford sanctions fatigue.”  It needs to keep pressuring Russia’s economy for the long haul. We must keep up the saturation bombing of Russia’s financial system no matter how many of those bombs land in Rome, Athens or Berlin rather than Moscow.

The unstated goal of these sanctions is to keep advanced technology out of Russia’s hands to domestically produce the weapons it will need to fight off NATO, not next month, but next year or in 2024.

This is a long term plan.  In an episode of RT’s Crosstalk I taped earlier in the week, host Peter Lavelle brought up the Biden Administration quotes about this being a 20-year war against Russia and/or China.

Pompeo’s “Three Lighthouses” speech was the same conclusion; a generation of Americans are going to have to fight a holy war against the East for control over global energy. Too bad no one wants to sign up to join, Mike.

They only have the existing plan and they were put in place to execute it, even if others counter it effectively. Biden is also on the same script, but he’ll be gone soon because he’s no longer a credible messenger. Then we’ll bring in Kamala “We Gathered here, because here is where we are gathered” Harris to be the Moron-in-Chief at the White House.

Because, they remind us constantly, those uncouth Yanks can’t be allowed to run anything.

With that in mind, look at what else the EU put out this week:

When’s the last time you saw any set of economic indicators come in perfectly in line with expectations like this? Seriously? This would be the first forecast by a European agency that they ever got right?

Moreover, if this is true, why did this CPI print push the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps versus 25 bps? I mean, they expected this CPI print, right? So shouldn’t they have been communicating 50 bps the entire time?

There is logic and then there is the E.C.B.

It’s just a desperate narrative to keep up appearances they have everything under control, that they are on top of the economic situation and there is no reason for anyone to panic.

Because panic, or ‘unwanted and unwarranted’ (Lagarde’s words) changes in credit spreads will prompt the use of the TPI to keep the Central Bank That Davos Built from going bankrupt.

For the EU however, the clock is ticking down fast. It’s the Fed’s turn next week and with this 50 bps raise, you almost have to expect 100 bps from Powell.

Remember that Eurocrats like Borrell and Lagarde have no Plan B (but maybe a Plan R, sadly).  

Reversals of Fortunes

I invoked Dr. Strangelove here for a reason.  Watch the movie again structurally, note the myriad of ‘reversals’ in it. It’s a marvel of screenwriting.  It shows you how clever humans are when they are single-minded in overcome obstacles to completing a task, operating as if the false is true.

There is no better metaphor for the current state of capital markets and political warfare than that.

I talk about reversals all the time in technical analysis of markets, but it’s an idea that is embedded deeply in storytelling.  The first key to writing a great screenplay is knowing every scene has to have a ‘reversal of value.’   

A reversal of value can be as simple as a cold person finding a hat, to a poor person finding a suitcase full of money.

The scene, no matter how small, has a controlling idea.  That controlling idea has to change a value in some way or the scene has no purpose.

Good editors leave them out. Studios put them back in to sell ‘Director’s Cuts’ on Blu-Ray.

The EU is all about Director’s Cuts of unwatchable French ‘Cinema.’

Reversals are important, they create and release tension.  Good writing constantly builds up small reversals to set the stage for larger ones (Scene Arcs) which impact bigger ones (Acts) and so on.  

The Eurocrats and Davos don’t believe in reversals.  They believe in inevitability and if they can just ‘stay on script’ no matter the complication which has negated their plan, they can still get to the finish line and win.  

This is what happened at the ECB’s pivotal meeting this week. They are staying the course. 2% inflation is the goal. Lagarde dropped all forecasts and talk of inflation being ‘transitory.’ Even though circumstances have reversed against them and they finally admitted it publicly, they won’t give up the overall narrative that everything is fine.

Europe’s values can only be expressed through the EU and therefore anything to save the EU saves European values. Maybe Kamala can crib from that one.

Thank the gods we uncouth Yanks left those European values behind, only to have them constantly try and impose them on us at every turn.

To many investors the Fed had their pivotal meeting last month when they raised 75 bps, but that reversal of Fed policy was only in their minds. In fact, as I’ve been saying for more than a year now, the Fed’s pivotal meeting wasn’t this past June but the one from June 2021, when ‘stealth tightening’ through reverse repo payouts began.

That set in motion as series of complications for the ECB and Davos which have been piling up like those thrown in front of the people trying to stop Armageddon in Dr. Strangelove. The ECB finally realizes that there is nothing to do now but to accept the smoking ruin and face reality.

Stay on Target. Stay on TARGET

What we are seeing in the markets this week after the euro briefly broke parity with the US dollar is the predictable bounce which comes after a major scene arc was completed. The euro hit $1.03 and no further.

But it’s just that, a bounce, a brief comic interlude to release the tension.  

Lagarde’s performance was her admission of a ‘credit-spread gap’ that is now unbridgeable. Italy’s debt is headed towards oblivion and the ECB just said they will spend every euro of German savings to avoid that for as long as possible.

So, we have this idea that the ECB is on top of everything. But, what about the war in Ukraine? What about the EU’s future?

The next headline is just as much of a stunner, in the face of a fracturing EU and Mario Draghi’s tenuous hold on power in Italy: EU Starts membership talks with Albania, North Macedonia

Translation: Don’t worry, the EU is healthy and everyone wants to be a member.  We will only grow stronger, not weaker.  We will absorb all of Europe, claim NATO from the Americans, force them to fight China while we starve Russia. 

This is fine. 

This is all part of the script.  But, it’s clearly not.  

This is what they want us in the West to see, what we’re only allowed to find in internet searches. Meanwhile, the Russians tell you what Europe is really doing, namely lifting sanctions and desperately trying to get the energy and food it needs to stay one step ahead of the hangmen outside of parliaments all across the ‘civilized world.’

The truth is, for the first time in a very long time, Davos is not calling the shots for the entire West.   Italy’s government is gone because the populists were told they have US backing to end Draghi’s reign of terror.

Certified Ph.D. in Geography Liz Truss has even odds of becoming the next UK Prime Minister to keep US control over City of London strong and the UK in the game.

Canada raised rates by 1% the other day, prompting comments about it having to follow, if not one-up, the Fed.  Clearly, the Canadian banks have had enough of Justin TrueDOH! and his Ukrainian Fifth Columnist, Davos chick Chrystia Freeland.

And next week, the Fed will raise the stakes again on Lagarde regardless of what she said today.  TPI is unusable garbage which traders will front-run her into oblivion over. If she wants to know what that feels like maybe she should talk with Kuroda over at the Bank of Japan rather than her data-driven experts in Brussels.

My last point is the one so many people do NOT want to hear, but better consider very carefully. Anti-American commentators do not understand what is happening.  

They cannot wrap their brains around the idea that there are forces within the US hierarchy who see the Imperial Trap for what it is and that if it continues it will be the end of the US. That the Fed is facing an existential threat to its survival and that they have far more wiggle room than they think.

Maybe, just maybe, the giants are fighting and we ants have a hard time distinguishing between not only who’s winning but whose footsteps we should avoid.

At some point the whole illusion will come crashing down.  Europe is the old whore who still thinks she’s a hot twentysomething.  The Fed is the guy at the bar who’d rather drink alone.

One only has to really look at the image Lagarde and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen project to the world to see exactly what I’m talking about. Thank the gods Merkel left the scene.

These ladies will stay on script while riding the bomb to ground zero thinking they have dance partners the entire time.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you hate bombshells

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

ISRAEL/SYRIA

Israeli jets strike Damascus

(zerohedge)

Israeli Jets Strike Damascus On Heels Of Putin’s Tehran Summit

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 01:00 PM

Israeli fighter jets launched a major attack on and near the Syrian capital of Damascus just after midnight Friday, killing three solders and wounding seven, which activated the Syrian military’s anti-air defenses. 

While such brazen Israeli assaults on Syria have occurred almost weekly over the last months and even years, many have noticed the timing comes just after Russia’s Vladimir Putin was in Iran where he met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.

“Heavy explosions were heard over both the Syrian capital and northern Israel, according to local reports,” The Times of Israel observed of the overnight attack. “The state-run broadcaster SANA, citing a military source, said most of the missiles launched from over the Golan Heights were intercepted.”

In the wake of the attack, one prominent Syria and Middle East analyst said, “After the trilateral meeting of Putin, Raisi and Erdogan in Tehran, I predicted on Wednesday an Israeli aggression on Syria” – given that Israel sees any legitimization of the ‘regime’ in Tehran as a direct challenge and threat to its security interests.

Further, the AP has underscored that during Putin’s trip, only his second abroad since the Ukraine invasion started, Iran issued its most pro-Moscow statement to date

Russian President Vladimir Putin won staunch support from Iran on Tuesday for his country’s military campaign in Ukraine, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei saying the West opposes an “independent and strong” Russia.

Khamenei said that if Russia hadn’t sent troops into Ukraine, it would have faced an attack from NATO later, a statement that echoed Putin’s own rhetoric and reflected increasingly close ties between Moscow and Tehran as they both face crippling Western sanctions. NATO allies have bolstered their military presence in Eastern Europe and provided Ukraine with weapons to help counter the Russian attack.

Khamenei said to Putin on Tuesday: “If the road would have been open to NATO, it will not recognize any limit and boundary,” and that the Western military alliance would have “waged a war” to return Crimea.

Thus a number of pundits are linking the major Tehran meeting, for which Turkey’s Erdogan was also present (a member of NATO, it should be recalled), and Israel’s fresh military action on Damascus, pointing to it as a stern “message” to Iran and Russia.

The leaders discussed the more than decade-long Syria conflict, with Putin having said during his meeting with Iran’s Raisi, “Our relations are developing at a good pace,” adding that the two countries will “strengthen their cooperation on international security and contribute significantly to the Syrian settlement.”

Importantly Gazprom has just reached what’s being described as a $40 billion long term deal with Iran’s state oil company. “This MoU [Memorandum of Understanding] will be the largest foreign investment in the history of Iran’s oil industry, as it will lead to an investment of several tens of billions of dollars of Russian investment in Iran’s oil and gas fields,” Iran’s Tansim news agency said of the fresh agreement, coming at a moment Gazprom is reducing supplies to Europe.

END

Производство российских ракет превышает их расходование – Аргументы Недели

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:26 PM (8 minutes ago)
to

Read this carefully >>..

https://argumenti.ru/army/2022/07/781392

Translation: The Russian army regularly strikes targets in Ukraine with quasi-ballistic, aeroballistic or cruise missiles of operational-tactical, medium and long range, sea, land and air based. The enemy is still waiting for them to run out, but this will never happen – the industry has already reached such a rate of production that it covered the mass consumption of missiles and various guided munitions since the first days of the SMO. Now their production exceeds the daily consumption. That is, the stocks of these weapons, on the contrary, are growing.

And this relates only to the SMO, and not other theaters where such systems are required and exist in reserves. It is how Russians plan, as it is never about one purpose or 

I keep trying to explain that in any conflict one must assure that support in the way of a supply chain is there to allow forward advancement. It is true in business, personal life or with a military. Ask a sergeant whose job is to keep things moving and not the officers. 

As the west runs down their supply of weapon systems with no preplanned production to replace this fruitless supply of weapons to the point, that in some cases 1/3 of availed inventory has been wasted. What happens if there is a real threat? Where does a supply chain emerge from with a plan? Waiting a year or longer for replacement inventory seems most fool hardy. 

So when Ukraine thinks it can fool the world with make believe stories of counter attacks and the like, only the uninformed or fools believe.

And as for the HIMARS in the Ukraine, everyone knows Canadian and British personnel are directing the efforts, which are not going to plan. It really is time to bail on a waste of manpower and weapons and money and think about rebuilding nations. Because lame excuses of turbines destined for Germany to allow for more gas flow being stuck in transit that will only  lead to Germans and German industry suffering this winter. And as this occurs the rest of Europe will feel the chill of recession. 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

This is interesting: this is Steve Kirsch’s lawsuit seeking documents over alleged collusion to suppress free speech.

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech

THURSDAY, JUL 21, 2022 – 11:55 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, and other top Biden administration officials have been served with discovery requests after a federal judge ordered the administration to comply with discovery requests stemming from a lawsuit alleging government collusion with Big Tech.

The lawsuit accuses government officials of working with Twitter and other major social media networks to suppress truthful information on multiple topics, including COVID-19.

One example outlined is how Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, held a secret meeting with scientists who soon after tried to discredit the theory that the virus that causes COVID-19 came from a Chinese laboratory. At the same time, Fauci, who has repeatedly cast doubt on the so-called lab leak theory and whose agency funded research at the lab in Wuhan, was exchanging messages with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on how COVID-19 information on social media was handled.

Fauci was told in the request to identify every worker in his agency who has or is communicating with a social media platform regarding content modulation and/or misinformation, to identify all such communications he had, and to identify all meetings he had on the matter with social media platforms.

He was also asked to provide all communications with Zuckerberg from Jan. 1, 2020, to the present, and all communications with platforms related to the Great Barrington Declaration, the COVID-19 strategy authored by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta that Fauci and his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins, criticized publicly and in private.

Discovery requests were also sent to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; former Disinformation Governance Board chief Nina Jankowicz; Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security.

Subpoenas

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, the plaintiffs in the suit, also served subpoenas to Meta, Facebook’s parent company; YouTube; Twitter; Instagram; and LinkedIn.

The subpoena compels the platforms to provide documents before Aug. 17, including all communications with Jankowicz and other federal officials.

The documents reference how Jen Psaki, Jean-Pierre’s predecessor, told a briefing in July 2021 that officials are “in regular touch with these social media platforms” and that “we’re flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.”

“We will fight to get to the bottom of this alleged collusion and expose the suppression of freedom of speech by social media giants at the behest of top-ranking government officials,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.

end

New study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting that mask mandates are ineffective

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

New Study Adds To Growing Body Of Evidence Suggesting Mask Mandates Are Ineffective

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new study published this month revealed that COVID-19 mask mandates in schools have little to no effect.

“Our findings contribute to a growing body of literature which suggests school-based mask mandates have limited to no impact on the case rates of COVID-19 among K-12 students,” researchers at the University of Southern California and the University of California–Davis said in a preprint study published on Research Square.

Researchers evaluated two school districts in Fargo, North Dakota, in which one had a mask mandate and the other did not during the 2021–2022 academic year.

“We observed no significant difference between student case rates while the districts had differing masking policies nor while they had the same mask policies,” they noted, adding that the “impact of school-based mask mandates on COVID-19 transmission in children is not fully established” amid mandates nationwide.

A number of other studies have found no link between mask mandates and a drop in COVID-19 cases.

In one study published in May, researchers found that COVID-19 mask and vaccine rules implemented by Cornell University had limited impact against the transmission of Omicron in late 2021 and 2022.

Cornell’s experience shows that traditional public health interventions were not a match for Omicron. While vaccination protected against severe illness, it was not sufficient to prevent rapid spread, even when combined with other public health measures including widespread surveillance testing,” the paper said.

And researchers in Spain found that mask mandates for children in Spain weren’t linked to a lower rate of COVID-19 cases or transmission.

In an evaluation of schoolchildren, kids aged 6 and older in Catalonia were required to wear masks once school reopened during the COVID-19 pandemic, the researchers said.

Researchers compared the incidence of COVID-19 in older children to younger children to try to determine whether the mandates had been effective in the aim of reducing transmission of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19, in schools.

Their study identified a much lower case rate in preschool, where there were no mandates when compared to older groups who were required to wear masks. Five-year-olds, for instance, had an incidence of 3.1 percent, while 6-year-olds had an incidence of 3.5 percent.

Researchers in Toronto, Canada, and California replicated a 2021 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study of counties in Arizona, published in The Lancet in May, that expanded the number of data points and extended the time period. They discovered that cases quickly declined in the weeks after the CDC cut off its study and decreased more quickly in the counties that didn’t have mask mandates.

“School districts that choose to mandate masks are likely to be systematically different from those that do not in multiple, often unobserved, ways. We failed to establish a relationship between school masking and pediatric cases using the same methods but a larger, more nationally diverse population over a longer interval,” the researchers said.

It was known long before COVID-19 that face masks don’t do anything,” Former Pfizer VP Michael Yeadon, a toxicologist and allergy research specialist, told The Epoch Times in May.  “Many don’t know that blue medical masks aren’t filters. Your inspired and expired air moves in and out between the mask [and] your face. They are splashguards, that’s all.”

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

end

Why the Highly Vaccinated Are Seeing Higher Deaths: Dr. Robert Malone [Part 2]

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello1:48 PM (9 minutes ago)
to me

Why the Highly Vaccinated Are Seeing Higher Deaths: Dr. Robert Malone [Part 2]
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/why-the-highly-vaccinated-are-seeing-higher-deaths-dr-robert-malone_4613159.html

END

Former NFL Player Dies at 35 After Suffering Cardiac Arrest ‘While on a Run’: Family

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello1:52 PM (7 minutes ago)
to me

Former NFL Player Dies at 35 After Suffering Cardiac Arrest ‘While on a Run’: Family
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/former-nfl-player-dies-at-35-after-suffering-cardiac-arrest-while-on-a-run-family_4615087.html

Dr Paul Alexander.

end

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//

As I have been saying:  the COVID pandemic is morphing into the CLIMATE CHANGE pandemic

end

This is a must see video as it shows where the crooks are trying to take us:

 Raven on Gab: ‘Lol what a joke 🤡<br /><br />CNN Director caught …’

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello11:14 PM (26 minutes ago)
to me

Raven on Gab: ‘Lol what a joke 🤡<br /><br />CNN Director caught …’

https://gab.com/MapleGal711/posts/108680511789495382

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(MAREY)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0178 DOWN  0.0033 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 136.88   DOWN 0.200 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1957 DOWN   0.0038

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.03 POINTS UP  0.06%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.51 PTS OR 0.17% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.62%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 34.51 PTS OR  0.17% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.03 PTS UP 0.06% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.09% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 111.66 OR 0.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1728.75

silver:$18.88

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 106.80  DOWN 0.01  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.19%  DOWN 19  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.198% DOWN 3     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25%// DOWN 19   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.78  DOWN 78   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.034% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0214 DOWN  6    or 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.12 DOWN 0.958  OR YEN UP  96  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1992  DOWN  0.0003 OR  3 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts  to 1.2908

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7513  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7617

TURKISH LIRA:  17.74  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.198

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 13  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  2.781% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.983 DOWN 9 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.47 DOWN 33   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.86 PTS OR  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 7.04  POINTS OR 0.05%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 15.71 PTS OR 0.25% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 38.90 OR 0.49%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 15/39 PTS OR  0.07%

WTI Oil price 95.53   12: EST

Brent Oil:  103.44  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  57.21  DOWN 0 AND 65/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.034

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0197 DOWN .0023     OR  23 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1980 DOWN .0015  or  15 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.18  DOWN 0.903//YEN UP 90 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2922 UP 0.0042 (CDN dollar DOWN 42  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 94.77

Brent OIL:  103.33

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.772 DOWN 14 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.991  DOWN 8  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.75

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  57.29   DOWN   5/8 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 137.61 PTS OR 0.43 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 222.94 PTS OR 1.77%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23202 UP 0.09 PTS (0.39)%

GLD: 160.67 UP .40 PTS OR 0.25%

SLV/ 17.14 DOWN 26 CENTS OR 1.44%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Bitcoin Soar On Week As Dismal Data Drives Dovish Dive In Rate-Hike Odds

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 04:01 PM

After a brief bounce, US Macro data returned to its “worse than expected” trend this week with ugliness in PMIs, initial jobless claims, Housing data (homebuilder sentiment slumped as existing home sales tumbled and single-family home starts/permits plunged), and Philly Fed and LEI tanking… (but apart from all those, everything is awesome and the consumer is strong – oh wait AT&T just warned that Americans can’t even pay their phone bills on time)

Source: Bloomberg

Which put together sent market expectations for rate-hikes down dramatically on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

And notably after this morning’s ugly PMI (signaling recession), the market priced in a full rate-cut in Q1 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

There is now just a 9% chance of a 100bps hike next week, and a 33% of 75bps in September…

Source: Bloomberg

The terminal rate for Fed Funds tumbled to 3.358% in Dec 2022 then rate-cuts begin…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid Thursday and Friday, sending yields from +15bps to -15bps in 2 days…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tumbled back below 3.00% to their lowest since May…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were also aggressively bid this week with Ethereum the big outperformer (up 25%) and Bitcoin gaining 10%…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum rallied back above $1600, its best week since Sept 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was weaker on the week, back near 3-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

An ugly day today in US stocks – thanks to SNAP’s ad-spend signals and ugly PMIs – with the majors losses accelerating after Europe closed…

…wiping some of this week’s lipstick off the bear market pig but the majors all managed to hold on to gains on the week with Small Caps and Big-Tech the best performer (and Dow the weakest). This was NASDAQ’s best week since July 8th…

The line in the sand appeared to be 4000 for the S&P 500

Friday saw a big reversal as the short squeeze from earlier in the week ran out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

Utes were the biggest losers on the week (despite plunging rates) and Consumer Discretionary the best performer, closely followed by Tech and Energy stocks (despite today’s weakness)…

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks posted their best weekly gain since late May as investors assessed early earnings results and prepared for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting following the first rate hike from the European Central Bank in 11 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Right as European stocks closed, US equity indices tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

European sovereign yields were mixed on the week (despite a big tumble today after the ugly Eurozone PMIs) with Italian yields higher on the week while Germany and the rest oif the majors all saw yields drop on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week lower but the early week weakness prompted a big bounce back above $1700…

Oil prices were marginally lower on the week with WTI unable to hold $100…

And finally, demand destruction and lower oil prices has dragged down pump prices across America…

Source: Bloomberg

But President Biden’s approval rating continues to crash!!

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

US PMI Crashes Into Contraction In July: “A Worrying Deterioration In The Economy”

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 09:52 AM

While US macro data continues to weaken – and on the heels of the eurozone’s unexpected plunge into contraction – analysts still expected flash US Composite PMIs to increase modestly (from 52.3 to 52.4) with manufacturing weaker and services flat. They were very wrong…

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing July Flash slipped to 52.3 from 52.7 (better than the 52.0 expected) – lowest since Jul 2020
  • S&P Global US Services July Flash crashed to 47.0 from 52.7 (well below the 52.7 expected) – weakest since May 2020

Source: Bloomberg

Mirroring the eurozone plunge, the US Composite Index plunged into contraction – a 26-month low – signaling a notable contraction in the economy and suggesting a technical recession is imminent…

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis, with the survey data indicative of GDP falling at an annualised rate of approximately 1%. Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector’s rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook.

“An increased rate of order book deterioration, with backlogs of work dropping sharply in July, reflects an excess of operating capacity relative to demand growth and points to output across both manufacturing and services being cut back further in coming months unless demand revives. However, with companies’ expectations of future growth slumping to the lowest since the early days of the pandemic, any such revival is not being anticipated. Instead, firms are already reassessing their production and workforce needs, resulting in slower employment growth.

“Although supply constraints remained problematic, constraining economic activity, the weakening demand environment has helped to alleviate inflationary pressures. Average prices charged for goods and services consequently rose at a much reduced rate in July, the rate of inflation still running high by historical standards but now down to a 16-month low to provide some much needed good news amid the ongoing cost of living crisis.”

Mission Accomplished Mr.Powell?

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Twitter is one big fraud:  they lost $344 million in Q2 and they blame the “Musk deal”?

Twitter Operating Loss $344 Million In Q2, Blames ‘Musk Deal’

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 08:16 AM

The second quarter was not a good one for Twitter.

Top-line revenue missed expectations ($1.18bn vs $1.32bn exp) as Ad Revenue disappointed ($1.08bn vs $1.23bn exp) – echoing SNAP’s results.

Bottom-line was worse as the social media firm lost 8c (adjusted).

Finally, Twitter suffered a $344 operating loss in Q2, which it blamed on the macroenvironment and the Musk deal.

There were two silver linings:

  • Q2 Subscription (and Other) Revenue was $101mm (better than the $96.2mm expected)
  • Q2 Monetizable DAUs were at 237.8 million (better than the 237.5 million expected) – which seems like a big deal amid all the chaos.

The company added 8.8 million new users during the quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations.

The company cited foreign exchange impacts, as well as “advertising industry headwinds” and uncertainty surrounding the acquisition by Elon Musk.

The share price is higher after earnings but remains lower from last night’s close, hurt by SNAP’s impact…

Twitter notes that it will not be hosting a call or providing any financial guidance.

end

A big victory for free speech//Steve Kirsch (see story above)

Special thanks to Steve for bringing this to our attention

Steve Organ9:37 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

end.

NASA Satellite Images Reveal Lake Mead’s Dramatic Water Loss

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 03:40 PM

NASA published new satellite images that show a massive drop in water levels over the last two decades at Lake Mead.

“Continuing a 22-year downward trend, water levels in Lake Mead stand at their lowest since April 1937, when the reservoir was still being filled for the first time,” NASA wrote in a press release. 

The largest artificial reservoir in the US was just 27% full as of Monday, and water levels have been steadily declining since the start of the year, down more than 26 feet to 1,040 feet. 

The photos shared by the NASA Earth Observatory — taken by Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 — provide a new updated view of the trend for Mead which suggests water levels could fall even more. 

For more context of what has happened over the last two decades as a megadrought grips the US West, here’s a view on the ground from May to June, showing just how quickly the water has dropped. 

The water level is dropping so quick that houseboats are stranded

Last month, we outlined how the drought-stricken lake is 149 feet from a dangerous level known as a “dead pool” and could wreak havoc across Southwestern US. 

If Lake Mead were to keep dropping, it could be a couple of years until a danger zone at 895 feet is reached, which is the point water would no longer pass through Hoover Dam to supply California, Arizona, and Mexico. Below 895 feet, the lake would be considered a “dead pool.” 

Corporate media routinely blames receding waters on climate change’ — perhaps the creation of the artificial lake in the middle of a desert has something to do with it… 

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

SWAMP STORIES

Looks like the Dems want a Hunter Biden charge before the midterms.  Garland will leave out Joe Biden

(Turley)

“Republicans Are Just Going After Him”: Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges

THURSDAY, JUL 21, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The media is reporting that the criminal investigation of Hunter Biden is at a “critical stage” with the grand jury considering an array of charges including various tax violations and possible foreign lobbying violations. I previously testified in Congress on possible criminal exposure for Hunter under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). There seems ample evidence for such charges but there remain some glaring questions in how the Biden Administration has handled the investigation of the Biden family.

What is also striking is the initial response of pundits on cable channels like MSNBC that has long ignored or downplayed the allegations.

The most glaring question raised the report is, again, the refusal of Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel despite overwhelming justification for such an appointment. For over a year, I have been writing on the obvious need for a special counsel in an investigation that not only is embarrassing for the Biden family but implicates not just Hunter but his uncle and his father.

Given this mounting evidence, the position of Attorney General Garland has gone from dubious to ridiculous in evading the issue of a special counsel appointment.  He continues to refuse to acknowledge these conflicts with the President.

Federal regulations allow the appointment of a special counsel when it is in the public interest and an “investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.”

It is hard to imagine a stronger case for the appointment of a special counsel. Attorney General Garland has failed in his duty to protect the Justice Department from such conflicts or the appearance of such conflicts.

There will be lingering questions over the independence of the investigation. For example, if you are investigating lobbying violations tied to Hunter’s open influence peddling, why would you not ask to question the man referred to as the “big guy” who was purportedly cut in for a ten percent share of one of the most dubious deals? He is also the same man who reportedly received money from shared accounts and was referenced by Hunter to foreign clients as part of the inducement for giving him money. He is the object of the influence peddling. He is also now the President of the United States.

Without speaking with such figures, the Justice Department could be accused of engaging in willful blindness to possible conspiracy violations involving not just Hunter but his family. If Hunter is then given a plea deal on limited charges, it will magnify those questions. That would particularly be the case if the case is closed before Republicans take the House and start their own investigation into the matter. That danger of an appearance of a conflict could have been avoided with simply appointing a special counsel over a year ago.

What is also striking is the response in the media, which long called the Hunter Biden laptop “Russian disinformation” or fake news.  On MSNBC, Paul Begala dismissed the importance of any criminal charges of the President’s son in a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme:

“No. No. I wish the guy well. He struggled with addiction, and, you know, nobody has charged him with anything. But this has been a Republican fixation to no avail. They have got no political gain out of this. I looked up Ron Johnson, the senator from Wisconsin, a couple of months ago, was asked about mass shootings … He said, ‘Before we pass anything new on guns, let’s enforce the law we already have. Let’s start with Hunter Biden.’ What the heck? So it’s a challenge for Hunter Biden. I wish him well, but it’s not going to be a political issue.”

The response of Kasie Hunt was even more interesting:

“It seems like, if anything, it probably energizes Democrats because it makes them think it’s political and that Republicans are just going after him for that reason.”

This would be an indictment under the Biden Administration but Hunt is already portraying the expected criticism as “Republicans are just going after him.” There remains no expression of concern over emails detailing millions of dollars going to Hunter as he raises access and meetings with his father. The same pundits who dismissed or downplayed the basis for the investigation are now dismissing the possible finding of probable cause of federal crimes.

As discussed earlier, it remains astonishing how successful the Biden family was making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election with the help of most of the media. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. The Biden trick however occurred live before an audience of millions. The media has made the story disappear except for a couple of the usual outlets.

The start of the spin shows that even criminal charges might not force the media to see the whole elephant. The key to the trick was involving the media in the original trick is that it invests reporters in the illusion. It is like calling audience members to the stage to assist in the performance. Reporters have to insist that there was nothing to see or they have to admit to being part of the original deception. The media cannot see the elephant without the public seeing something about the media in its past efforts to conceal it.

.

END

Bannon Found Guilty Of Contempt Of Congress For Defying J6 Subpoena

FRIDAY, JUL 22, 2022 – 02:52 PM

A federal jury in Washington DC has found former Trump adviser Stephen K. Bannon guilty on two charges of contempt of Congress, after he refused to comply with a subpoena from the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot.

He faces a maximum penalty of one year behind bars and a $100,000 fine.

In his closing statements, Bannon’s attorney, M. Evan Corcoran, suggested that the J6 committee was illegitimate and politically motivated – and that their deadlines for Bannon to comply with were nothing more than “placeholders” for further negotiation, the Washington Post reported earlier Friday.

Corcoran added that Bannon “didn’t intentionally refuse to comply with a subpoena. Absolutely not. He didn’t intentionally refuse to comply with anything.”

Assistant US Attorney Molly Gaston, meanwhile, told jurors that Bannon “chose allegiance to Donald Trump over compliance with the law,” and highlighted his failure to respond or produce a single document before the deadline, after which Bannon’s attorneys say that Trump intended to invoke executive privilege.

“When it really comes down to it, he did not want to recognize Congress’s authority or play by the government’s rules,” said Gaston. “…. It is important because our government only works if people show up. It only works if people play by the rules.”

In his closing, Corcoran took aim at the credibility of the main prosecution witness, Kristin Amerling, the chief counsel for the Jan. 6 committee and a long time aide to Democratic lawmakers. He suggested she and the Democrats on the committee were in a rush to score political points and punish Bannon, singling him out of more than 1,000 committee witnesses in an election year.

Gaston ridiculed that reasoning.

“There is nothing political about figuring out why January 6 happened, and how to make sure it never happens again,” she said. “And there is nothing political about enforcing the law against someone who, like the defendant, flouts it.” -WaPo

The ruling comes after US District Judge Carl J. Nichols, a Trump appointee, rejected several defenses – including that Trump had claimed executive privilege over his former adviser’s testimony and documents – and limited Bannon’s team to the issue of whether he understood the deadlines for responding to lawmakers. Nichols stopped Corcoran twice on Friday, after the defense attorney began to argue over the legitimacy of the subpoena.

His attorneys have indicated that he will appeal on the basis that Nichols’ rulings that a defendant charged with contempt of Congress cannot claim they were relying on the advice of counsel, or that they believed their cooperation was barred by a president’s executive privilege claims.

King report

The King Report June 22, 2022 Issue 6806Independent View of the News
BOJ keeps easy monetary stance, raises inflation forecast.
Japanese central bank decided to keep its key monetary levers unchanged, guiding 10-year yields to zero, and short-term rates to minus 0.1%, and promising to buy Japanese government bonds without limit under its “yield-curve control” policy.  https://t.co/45amxWmT2b
 
@Bank_of_Japan_e: Statement on Monetary Policy https://t.co/hpUHRBGX2S
 
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigns as coalition collapses, risking EU unity on Ukraine and economy  https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/europe/mario-draghi-italy-resignation-intl/index.html
 
Italy’s president dissolves parliament, calls snap election (September 25)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-s-president-dissolves-parliament-calls-snap-election/ar-AAZPNHH
 
European Central Bank @ecb: Today we took our latest monetary policy decisions:We raised interest rates by 0.5…, a further step in normalising our monetary policyWe agreed on a new instrument (TPI) to make sure that our policy smoothly reaches all the euro area… https://ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2022/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html 
ECB: The Transmission Protection Instrument
The TPI will allow the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
Subject to fulfilling established criteria, the Eurosystem will be able to make secondary market purchases of securities issued in jurisdictions experiencing a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals, to counter risks to the transmission mechanism to the extent necessary. The scale of TPI purchases would depend on the severity of the risks facing monetary policy transmission. Purchases are not restricted ex ante…
    TPI purchases would be focused on public sector securities (marketable debt securities issued by central and regional governments as well as agencies, as defined by the ECB) with a remaining maturity of between one and ten years. Purchases of private sector securities could be considered, if appropriate.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220721~973e6e7273.en.html
 
Pundits quickly asserted the ECB’s TPI is a QE mechanism for a specific country, namely Italy.
 
Euro Tumbles, Spreads Blow Out as Market Realizes ECB’s TPI Is Just Another Useless Word Salad – Even Bloomberg writes that “for the central bank this seems like a very dangerous path to be on. If the GC disagrees on a country’s fiscal stance or on some other politically controlled factor then it is risking becoming a very politicized organization.”…  Lagarde’s disclosure of the four specific eligibility criteria for TPI as she claims that “the ECB determines in its own discretion, not hostage to anyone.” The conditions are the following:Compliance with EU fiscal framework, borrowing from the European CommissionAbsence of severe macroeconomic imbalances, again borrowing from the CommissionFiscal sustainability, taking into account European Commission analysis and others such as IMFSound policies that are in line with the country’s commitment to the recover fund planshttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euro-tumbles-spreads-blow-out-market-realizes-ecbs-tpi-just-another-useless-word-salad
 
President Biden tests positive for COVID-19
“This morning, President Biden tested positive for COVID-19,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a written statement. “He is fully vaccinated and twice boosted and experiencing very mild symptoms.  He has begun taking Paxlovid. Consistent with CDC guidelines, he will isolate at the White House and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.  He has been in contact with members of the White House staff by phone this morning, and will participate in his planned meetings at the White House this morning via phone and Zoom from the residence.”
    “Consistent with White House protocol for positive COVID cases, which goes above and beyond CDC guidance, he will continue to work in isolation until he tests negative,” Jean-Pierre continued. “Once he tests negative, he will return to in-person work.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/president-biden-tests-positive-for-covid-19?intcmp=tw_fnc&s=02
 
@charliespiering: The White House says Biden’s last negative test was on Tuesday… Asked by reporters last night to address people who still were not vaccinated, Biden replied, “They’ve got a problem.”  “It’s not in their interest or the public’s interest not to get vaccinated… They should get vaccinated now.”
 
One year ago, Joe Biden asserted, “You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.”   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1550126265490763785
 
@townhallcom: “This continues to be a pandemic of the unvaccinated.” – Joe Biden, 1/4/22
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1550130370883964931
 
We are also old enough to remember when the legacy media mocked Trump when he got Covid.
 
@townhallcom: After his speech yesterday, a maskless Joe Biden met and shook hands with supporters in the audience. Today, the White House announced that he tested positive for COVID.
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1550129771635306496
 
Beleaguered WH Press Sec Jean-Pierre generated suspicion and conspiracy theories on this exchange:
 
@RNCResearch: “Where exactly was the president infected?”  Karine Jean-Pierre: “I don’t think that matters.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1550188818980020226
 
Contact tracing is key to slowing the spread of COVID-19 and helps protect you, your family, and your community… https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/contact-tracing.html
 
@bennyjohnson: FLASHBACK: Biden on if he disagrees with Kamala: “I’ll develop some disease and say I have to resign.” https://t.co/xj0zvhOiyR
 
@CGasparino: Chatter on Capitol Hill the Dems will use @JoeBiden’s covid diagnosis as an excuse for him not to run in 2024 ie he will suffer bouts of long covid because of his age. It’s A face saving way for him to bow out and its speculation, of course, but it’s making the rounds
 
Joe Biden has $37B crime-fighting plan that would fund more local cops
Biden was scheduled to outline a $37 billion crime-fighting plan that would hire more local police… The rollout may be delayed after it was revealed the 79-year-old Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 and will have to isolate and be monitored… The president was set to announce the details of the Safer America Plan during a visit to Wilkes-Barre as Democrats attempt to hold on to their majorities in the House and Senate in the face of Republican attacks that they are soft on crime and the party that wants to defund the police… https://trib.al/fLpYh68
 
The Big Guy’s crime bill includes a ban on assault weapons, which no one will define, and high-capacity magazines that have yet to be defined because the SCOTUS has ruled for some high-capacity magazines.
 
Dems and the WH are in panic mode over the looming electoral disaster that is only 3.5 months away.  They will pull out all stops, implement all schemes, and go full gaslight in the coming months.
 
US LEADING INDICATORS – Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in June 2022 to 117.1 (2016=100), after declining by 0.6 percent in May. The LEI was down by 1.8 percent over the first half of 2022, a reversal from its 3.3 percent growth over the second half of 2021.
    “The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.”
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
@bespokeinvest: June was the fourth straight month of declines for the leading index. Every prior streak of that duration came either during or right before a recession.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1550228208175415299
 
The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for July collapsed to -12.3 from -3.3; +0.8 was expected.
 
The index for new orders declined for the second consecutive month, from -12.4 to -24.8… The indexes for current inventories and unfilled orders were negative, at -9.3 and -10.4, respectively… The diffusion index for future general activity decreased 12 points to -18.6, its lowest reading since December 1979
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2022-07
 
AT&T Falls Most in 20 Years after Overdue Bills Hit Cash Flow – Customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills, which contributed to the wireless carrier cutting its forecast for free cash flow this year by $2 billion… (So much for stable-demand recession protection!)
https://www.yahoo.com/now/t-cuts-cash-flow-view-130200364.html
 
Initial Jobless Claims rose 8k to 251k, the highest number since November.  240k was consensus.  Continuing Claims increased to 1.384 from 1.333m; 1.34m was expected.
 
US bonds soared 2¼ points on European and US recession angst.  The other big market story on Thursday was Tesla’s 9.78% surge, on frantic short covering.  TSLA’s rally fomented jumbo Fang and Nasdaq rallies.  Because Fangs and techs are over-represented in the S&P 500 Index, ESUs rallied sharply.
 
ESUs sank in early US trading on recession fears as bonds soared (defensive asset allocation).  ESUs hit the daily low of 3930.25 at 10:27 ET.  We all know what happened next!  Someone forced ESUs 60 handles higher in the next two hours.  We warned that Tesla would be a huge factor for the stock market on Thursday – and it was.  The late ESU manipulation created the daily high (4004.75) at 16:03 ET.
 
U.S. hopes for global price cap on Russian oil by December (After US election, oil to the moon!)
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-hopes-global-price-cap-russian-oil-by-december-2022-07-21/
 
@MarketCurrents: American Airlines stock slides as capacity concerns overshadow record revenue https://t.co/J6GuxXN9TV
 
Disney World descends into chaos as 2 families brawl in huge Magic Kingdom fight
At least one man was hospitalized after the Fantasyland fight at Orlando, Florida’s Magic Kingdom
https://www.foxnews.com/us/disney-world-descends-chaos-two-families-brawl-huge-magic-kingdom-fight
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Tesla soared as much as 10.3%, which propelled Fangs & Nasdaq to massive rallies
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJTA declined
Bonds soared on US recession and European angst
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Precious metals rallied sharply while the dollar declined smartly
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3975.29
Previous session High/Low3999.29; 3927.64
 
Study CDC Relied Upon for School Mask Mandates Was Authored by LA County Public Health Director’s Daughter – Who’s Also Not an MD  https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2022/07/20/study-cdc-relied-upon-for-school-mask-mandates-was-authored-by-la-county-public-health-directors-daughter-whos-also-not-an-md-n575405
 
Rare case of polio confirmed in New York (in Rockland County, SW of the Bronx)
Polio is very contagious and a person can spread the virus even if they aren’t sick. The majority of people infected with polio have no symptoms… https://www.foxnews.com/health/new-york-county-confirms-case-polio
 
@kylenabecker: 219 House Democrats vote AGAINST Republican effort to block U.S. oil reserves from being sold to CHINA
 
@greg_price11: ESPN gave the ESPY for “Breakthrough Athlete of the Year” to Eileen Gu, the skier who grew up in San Francisco, is a current student at Stanford, but renounced her U.S. citizenship to complete for China at the Olympics last year.
 
Fed Balance Sheet: + $3.346B.  The Fed clearly is reluctant to do QT.  Is this a factor in stocks’ rally?  Since its $8.965T peak on May 13, 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet $65.787B (0.73%).
 
After the close, SNAP reported Q2 sales of $1.11B (1.14B expected), and said advertisers slashed budgets.  SNAP said it will reduce hiring; the stock crashed 26.6%.  Meta (Facebook) & Google tumbled.
 
Today – Near the end of June, we presented the case for an equity rally (Q2 performance gaming, 4th of July rally, summer rally, and Q2 earnings season).  Late next week is time to be alert for signs of a top.  When there are robust rallies into earnings season after significant declines, a market reversal tends to appear after most of the high-beta trading sardines (Fangs & tech) have reported results.  All Fangs will have announced results by Thursday’s close.  There could be July performance gaming on Friday.
 
Today is a summer Friday, which tends to be a rally day.  However, stocks are extremely overbought on a trading basis AND the winds of recession and European crises are intensifying.  The key for today is 4000 on the S&P 500 (closed at 3998.95). The worst case for bulls would be for the S&P 500 Index to jump above 4000 and then decline smartly later.  ESUs are -19.00 and NQUs are -103.75 at 20:00 ET on Snap.
 
Expected earnings: SLB .40, AXP 2.39, ROP 3.38, HCA 3.75, VZ 1.33, TWTR .14
 
Expected economic data: July S&P US Mfg PMI 52, Services 52.7
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3920; 100-day MA: 4141; 150-day MA: 4280; 200-day MA: 4357
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,589; 100-day MA: 32,807; 150-day MA: 33,637; 200-day MA: 34,095
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4803.89 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4113.15 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3839.58 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3946.61 triggers a sell signal
 
Babylon Bee: White House Clarifies that Biden Only Claimed to Have Cancer Due to His Dementia
 
GOP @RepMTG: As a woman and a mother, it’s not the guns that are the issue. It’s the severe mental illness and the breakdown of our morals and values in America. https://t.co/IViaDVZ9Rv
 
‘No One Wants Kamala’: Twitter Gets Fooled by Parody Trump Statement
“Joe Biden, who many have said is our worst President, has come down with a case of the China virus, despite being vaccinated. I hope Sleepy Joe is able to bounce back quickly, much as I was. Doctors described my fight against the China virus as Herculean, and not meaning the woke Disney Hercules but rather the Kevin Sorbo one. The Lou Ferrigno one as well,” the parody statement read. “Joe, I wish you a speedy recovery, even though you are taking America in the wrong direction. No one wants Kamala!”…
https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/21/donald-trump-parody-statement-joe-biden-coronavirus/
 
British spy chief says Russia is about to ‘run out of steam’ in Ukraine, opening the door for Ukrainian forces to ‘strike back’ – “I also think, to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign by the UkrainiansBecause we are about to go into a pretty tough winter,” Moore said…
    “The Russians are exhausted,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the US Army in Europe, recently told Insider. “They don’t have much else they can do right now.”…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/british-spy-chief-says-russia-194509946.html
 
@CBSNews: “This conflict seems to be becoming a kind of grinding war of attrition.” CBS News’ @HollyMAWilliams reports on the latest in the war in Ukraine, as Russia warns its military goals will expand if the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons. (Threat of desperation?)
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1550258006860115969
 
Arizona GOP Offers $50,000 DOLLAR REWARD For Evidence of Vote Buying in the 2022 Arizona Primary Election   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/breaking-arizona-gop-offers-50000-dollar-reward-evidence-vote-buying-2022-

 

Greg Hunter:https://usawatchdog.com/dem-gun-confiscation-nato-war-more-unexpected-deaths-economy-tanking/

Dem Gun Confiscation, NATO War, More Unexpected Deaths, Economy Tanking

By Greg Hunter On July 22, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups37 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 539 7.22.22)

The Democrats are trying to push a new bill, and openly push the idea of gun confiscation.  This bill was originally pushed more than a year ago as an “assault weapons ban.”  It’s now being revived, but why now?  Even after three reaffirming decisions by the Supreme Court on the 2nd Amendment, the Democrats are not only pushing more gun control, but confiscation of firearms.  What is going on for them to be pushing this losing hand at this time.  It sounds like they are desperate to stay in control even if the entire financial system comes crashing down as many are predicting.

Rand Paul tried to reaffirm the power of Congress, and only Congress has the right to declare war.  That was shot down in the Senate before it even got off the ground this week.  So, can NATO declare war for America?  Apparently, it can, and that is certainly the direction our feckless leaders are taking us in when it comes to Russia and Ukraine.  Heaven help us all if it goes nuclear.

It’s another week, and there are more “unexpected deaths” of young people for no apparent reason.  Maybe it’s the bioweapon they have passed off as a vaccine.  It clearly does not work well as a vaccine because, just this week, cheated-in President Joe Biden announced he had Covid.  He also announced he had cancer, but the White house quickly walked that back.

The economy is in turmoil and going down everywhere.  In China, tanks are stopping bank runs.  In Italy, former head of the ECB and now former president Mario Draghi has resigned because the economy is foundering under globalist mismanagement.  In America, BlackRock hedge fund lost a record $1.7 trillion in the first six months of 2022.  Housing is tanking, office space is less than half full as unemployment spikes.  Everywhere you look you have third world economic woes because of insolvency.

Financial writer Bill Holter says, “The whole world is now a banana republic.”

Join Greg Hunter od USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 7.22.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/dem-gun-confiscation-nato-war-more-unexpected-deaths-economy-tanking/)

After the Wrap-Up:

Bill Holter of JSMineset.com will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  He will tell us about a $50 million sale of gold and silver coins at Miles Franklin.  He will explain why that will be a turning point in the gold and silver markets.

See you MONDAY

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