JULY 25//GOLD CLOSED DOWN 47.85 TO $1721.05//SILVER WAS DOWN $.24 TO $18.47//PLATINUM WAS UP $4.00 TO $884.30//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $2.45 TO $2010.50//OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK WITH COMEX EXPIRING TOMORROW AND LONDON/OTC THIS FRIDAY//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//GAZPROM INFORMS EUROPE THAT MORE MAINTENACE ON NORDSTREAM ONE AND THUS FLOWS WILL AMOUNT TO 20% OF NORMAL DOWN FROM 40%//CHINA’S PROPERTY SECTOR IN A MESS AS GOVERNMENT WILL INJECT HUGE AMOUNTS OF CAPITAL TO RESCUE IT//CHICAGO AND DALLAS FEDS REPORT THAT THE ECONOMY IS IN FREEFALL// SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1721.05 DOWN $7.85 

SILVER: $18.47 DOWN 24 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1719.65

SILVER: $18.44

We are now entering options expiry for Comex (tomorrow) and OTC/LBMA (Friday)

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,998 DOWN 1076

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,605. DOWN 1469  

Platinum price: closing UP $4.00 to $884.30

Palladium price; closing DONW $2.45  at $2010.50

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,727.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/22/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 15
661 C JP MORGAN 20 45
690 C ABN AMRO 10


TOTAL: 45 45
MONTH TO DATE: 9,564

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  45/45 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY CONTRACT:  45 NOTICES FOR 4500 OZ //1.399 TONNES

total notices so far: 956,400 contracts for 956,400 oz (29.748 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

186 NOTICES FILED FOR 930,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  3591 :  for 17,955,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

TONNES FROM THE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 499.101 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A HUGE SIZED 1511  CONTRACTS TO 147,106   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.10 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.10) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 3151 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 250,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -28


HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total 15,120  contracts:  75.600 million oz  OR 4.725 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (945 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 75.6 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 75.60 MILLION OZ ( LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LOW ISSUANCE MONTH FOR SILVER)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1511 DESPITE OUR  $0.10 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1612 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 250,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 3123 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 15.615 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 186  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  930,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A  VERY STRONG SIZED 9,585 CONTRACTS  TO 509,399 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +485 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $14.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITION ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5,500 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF   $14.45 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5568  OI CONTRACTS 17.318 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  4017  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 509,399

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5568 CONTRACTS  WITH 9585 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4017 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5568 CONTRACTS OR 17.318 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4017) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9,585): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  5568 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS/ //.,4)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

102,079 CONTRACTS OR 10,207,900 OZ OR 317.50  TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6380 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 317.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  317.50/3550 x 100% TONNES  8.96% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 317.50 TONNES (HUGE INCREASE FROM JUNE//WILL CLOSE IN ON THE RECORD EFP ISSUANCE IN MARCH 22//SURPASSED PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH NOV 21) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1511 CONTRACT OI TO 147,106 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1612 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1612  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:1612 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1511  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1612 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 3123   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15.615 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.10

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.59 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.20 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 215.41 OR % 0.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7455//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7520//    /Oil UP TO 95.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 104.26// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.59 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.20 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 215.41 OR % 0.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY  STRONG SIZED 9,585 CONTRACTS TO 509.389 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE OF $14.45  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4,017 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4017 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :4017 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4017 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 5568  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4017 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 9,585  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR GOOD SIZED  RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 14.45. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (29.800),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.800 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $14.45) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED LOSS  OF 17.318 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (29.800 TONNES)

WE HAD +484  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5568 CONTRACTS OR  556,800  OZ OR 17.318 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 219,298/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  284,565 / fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 25

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz69,639.071oz
JPMorgan
Manfra
2166 kilobars


Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz16,979.280 oz
Brinks  (525 kilobars)
No of oz served (contracts) today45  notice(s)
4500 OZ
1.399 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)17 contracts 
1700 oz
0.05287 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9564 notices
956400 OZ
29.748 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1 

i) Into Brinks:  16,879.280 oz (525 kilobars)

total deposits: 16,879.280 oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of JPM  52,759.791 oz (1641 kilobar)

ii)Out of Manfra:  16,879.280oz (525 KILOBARS)

total withdrawals:  69,639.071 oz(2166 kilobars)

ADJUSTMENTS:3 dealer to customer

Int Delaware: 11,601.160 oz

JPMorgan: 118,097.916 oz

Manfra: 244,600.956 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 62 contracts having LOST  242 contracts . We had

292 notices filed on Friday so we GAINED a strong 50  contracts or an additional 5000 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 31,161 contracts down to 156,709 contracts. We have 4 more reading days before first day notice. Looks like we will have a strong August standing for gold (JULY 29/22..FIRST DAY NOTICE)

Sept. gained 95 contracts to 2973 contracts.

We had 45 notice(s) filed today for  4500 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  20 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 45 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  45 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9564) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 62  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 45 x 100 oz per contract equals 958,100 OZ  OR 29.800 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9564) x 100 oz+   (62)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (45} x 100 oz} which equals 958,100 oz standing OR 29.645 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  29.800 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  31,173,271.582 OZ 

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,498,734.555  OZ (48,20 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,622,277.236 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,178,744.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 409.9 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 22

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory973,786.862  oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory190,759.160 oz
Delaware
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)186 CONTRACT(S)
930,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
(0,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3591 contracts
 17,955,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware  189,798.360 oz

ii) Into CNT:  960.80 oz

total deposit:  190,759.160   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.177 million oz/341.145 million =51.62% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:4

i) Out of Brinks:  6788.120 oz

ii) 72,241.943 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 4988.299 oz

iv) Out of jPMorgan 889,768.000 0z

 adjustments: 2/dealer to customer

CNT:  14,423.563 oz

Manfra: 474,205.304 oz

customer to Dealer: JPMorgan 44,551.400 oz

and Loomis: 4745.80 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 59.633 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341.141 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 233 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 3 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 47 NOTICES FILED

ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 50 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  250,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 958

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 1381 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118,520

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 186 for  230,000 oz

Comex volumes:43,456// est. volume today//  poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 50,180 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3591 x 5,000 oz = 17 955,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(233) and the number of notices served upon today 186  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 3591 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (233)  – number of notices served upon today (186) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 18,190,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.87 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 499.101 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: It’s Getting Harder To Deny Recession Reality

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 10:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

It’s getting harder and harder for recession deniers to justify their optimism. And some people seem to be waking up to that reality.

Late last week, we got more economic data and corporate earning news that proves the economic optimism that’s been bandied about for months is unfounded.

Weekly first-time jobless claims rose for the third consecutive week, hitting 251,000. This was higher than projected and it’s the highest level of jobless claims since last October.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July also came out. The consensus was for 0.4, up from June’s -3.3 print. Instead, the number came in at -12.3. That was 50% below the low end of the consensus. Meanwhile, the employment index declined 9 points to 19.4. That was its lowest reading since May 2021.

The leading economic indicator index for June fell 0.8% in June off a May number revised lower to down 0.6%. It was the fourth straight monthly decline in that index.

The composite PMI index fell to 47.5 in July from 52.3 in June, hitting a 26-month low. The PMI services index fell even lower to 47. Anything below 50 is supposed to indicate a recession. Peter said the big drop in the service sector was particularly troubling.

When you have a 47 on the services index, you know the US economy is in recession because the service sector is what everybody looks to to power the economy.”

Peter said this data really should surprise people because it’s nothing new.

This should be obvious, but people have been in denial about the weakness in the economy. So, as all this weak economic data continues to come out, more and more of the recession deniers are going to have to throw in the towel and accept reality — including all of the recession deniers at the Federal Reserve.”

The Atlanta Fed continues to project a second straight month of negative GDP growth in the second quarter. Currently, it projects a -1.6% decline. It will release one more projection before the actual numbers come out. Peter said he thinks it will be around -2. That would indicate the second quarter was actually weaker than Q1.

After we got the negative GDP print in the first quarter, the mainstream blew it off, asserting that it was just an outlier.

When we end up with an even weaker number for the second quarter, that really throws a bunch of cold water in the face of the idea that we have a strong economy. And given how weak the Q3 data already is… We don’t have a lot of July data yet, but it’s starting to come in and what we’ve seen is pretty ugly. And it makes a lot of sense that the third quarter would be even weaker than the first two because interest rates are going to be a lot higher in the third quarter than they were back then. Next week, the Fed is set to raise interest rates 75 basis points. We’re going to be up to 2.25 to 2.5%. If we were in recession when interest rates were 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, think about how much worse that recession is going to be when interest rates are higher.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the first ECB rate hike in 11 years, a possible top in the dollar, a possible bottom in gold, and the pain tech companies are feeling as advertisers flee.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Rickards: Fed’s Cure May Be Worse Than The Disease

SUNDAY, JUL 24, 2022 – 12:30 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Right now, it’s basically a case of the Fed versus the economy. You might say, “Wait a second. Isn’t the Fed supposed to help the economy?”

Well, not exactly. They may want to help the economy, but helping the economy actually isn’t job one. Job one is helping the banks. The Fed was essentially created to prop up the banking system and prevent bank runs.

Everything else it tries to accomplish, such as price stability and maximum employment, comes second.

So it’s not clear that the Fed’s always aligned with the best interests of the economy. People don’t realize that, but it’s important to keep in mind.

Everyone knows the Fed’s raising interest rates right now. But which rates? The rate that the Fed actually raises is called the fed funds target rate. And what is that?

That’s the rate at which banks lend to each other to meet their reserve requirements on an overnight basis. Fed funds are amounts that banks lend to each other to meet overnight reserve requirements.

It’s an extremely short-term rate. The Fed targets that rate as a way to control the money supply and perhaps tweak inflation or achieve other economic goals.

The Fed Is Targeting a Rate That No Longer Exists

I don’t want to get into the mechanics of the banking system, but here’s the essential point I want to make:

There hasn’t been a real fed funds market for about 12 or 13 years, ever since the Fed began flooding the system with money during the Great Financial Crisis. Today, reserves are close to an all-time high.

In other words, the banks have excess reserves. Their actual reserves are multiple trillions of dollars in excess of the requirement. So there is no shortage of reserves.

There’s no overnight lending for reserve requirements, because all the banks have excess reserves.

So the Fed is targeting a rate that doesn’t exist anymore. Why are they doing it?

Banks aren’t lending to each other, but they are lending to the Fed in the form of excess reserves. Those are deposits at the Fed, which the Fed pays interest on. So in a sense, the interest on excess reserves is a modern substitute for the old fed funds rate.

But this money is basically sterilized. It stays within the banking system without making its way into the real economy. That’s why all the QE the Fed engaged in after 2008 never led to consumer price inflation.

The inflation we’re seeing today has nothing to do with QE (more on that in a minute). Now people say the Fed’s raising interest rates. But it’s not that simple.

The Fed Has Limited Influence Over Long-Term Rates

The Fed really only controls that overnight rate. It doesn’t have that type of control over longer-term interest rates like those on the 10-year Treasury note, for example.

The Fed can target 10-year note rates to some extent with quantitative easing or quantitative tightening, through buying and selling them in the market. They can move the rate around a little bit, but that influence is limited.

The market for 10-year Treasuries is much, much larger than the Fed. It’s the deepest and most liquid market in the world.

So the Fed’s really targeting one minor rate, the overnight rate. It’s a really narrow target.

They don’t control long-term interest rates directly, nor do they have the capacity to do so.

So how does raising the fed funds rate reduce inflation?

The Supply Side

There are two major sources of inflation. There’s the supply side and there’s the demand side. Either one of them can drive inflation, but they’re very, very different in terms of how they work.

The supply side, as the name implies, comes from input. The supply just isn’t there. Farm prices are going up because fertilizer prices are going up, partly because of the war in Ukraine. Oil prices are going up because there’s a global shortage, and there’s disruption in supply chains.

Actually, I need to refine my comments about oil shortages. Rising gasoline prices don’t have all that much to do with the oil supply. There’s not a shortage of oil, but in the United States, there’s a shortage of refining capacity.

You don’t put crude oil in your gas tank, you put gasoline in your gas tank, or diesel, or jet fuel, which is basically kerosene. All of it has to be refined, and that’s where the bottleneck is.

Raising Rates Won’t Plant Crops or Increase Oil Production

So there are increasing shortages in some of the refined products, and that also accounts for today’s extremely high prices. And transportation costs go into the prices of everything.

So what can the Fed do about that? Nothing. Does the Fed drill for oil? Does the Fed run a farm? Does the Fed drive a truck? Does the Fed pilot a cargo vessel across the Pacific or load freight at the Port of Los Angeles?

No, they don’t do any of those things, and so they can’t fix that part of the problem. Raising interest rates has no impact on the supply side shortages we’re seeing. And that’s where the inflation’s coming from.

Since the Fed has misdiagnosed the disease, they are applying the wrong medicine. Tight money won’t solve a supply shock. Until the supply shortages are fixed, higher prices will continue. But tight money will hurt consumers, increase the savings rate and raise mortgage interest rates, which hurts housing.

The Demand Side

Then there’s demand-side inflation, called demand-pull inflation. That’s when people build inflation into their day-to-day behavior, when they think inflation’s here to stay.

They say, “Well, I was thinking of buying a new refrigerator. Better go get it today because the price is going up.”

The same logic applies to buying a new car, a new house, etc. The motivation to buy now accelerates demand because consumers think the price will only go up. These expectations can take on a life of their own and feed on themselves as people rush to the stores.

Supply can’t keep up, which is a recipe for higher prices. We’re not there yet. We’re not at the demand-pull side, but we’re dangerously close.

Are you running right out today to go buy a new refrigerator because you fear the price is going up? Probably not. You’re certainly aware of price increases; you see them at the pump and at the grocery store. But at least so far, that part of the behavior has not changed very much.

The Cure May Be Worse Than the Disease

Here’s the point: The Fed can’t create supply but it can destroy demand. If they raise interest rates enough, mortgage rates will rise and monthly payments with them. People will stop buying houses and credit card balances will rise because they’re paying higher interest. Financing starts to dry up, which spreads throughout the economy.

So the Fed can destroy demand, but only at the cost of the economy. It’s one thing if the inflation is coming from the demand side, but it’s not. It’s coming from the supply side, and the Fed can’t do anything about that.

They can destroy enough demand to maybe bring inflation down, but only by destroying the economy.

And that’s the point. The idea that the Fed can squash inflation without squashing the economy is false.

I’m afraid we’re going to find that out the hard way.

end

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Is nothing sacred nowadays? Probably not!

China has always been adept at playing the long game, and Russia has been following in its footsteps. Both nations have used the decades now of détente with the West to put themselves in a dominant position in terms of the supply of certain key metals, minerals, and strategic manufactured items that they virtually have a stranglehold on the supply of many products that are absolutely key to the economies and national security of potential competitor nations. In short, these still totalitarian states are taking one of the worst aspects of capitalism and using mass production and low pricing to drive competing businesses out of several key strategic markets.

This has been brought to global notice by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the reaction of nearly all European nations in condemning it with the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia. Yet Russia holds virtually all of them economic hostage to the potential threat of cutting off their key energy source – nearly all European nations are enormously dependent on the supply of Russian oil and natural gas through a complex network of overland pipelines.

Russia would obviously like to sow dissent among the Europeans through threats to limit, or cut off, supplies, although the situation is not that simple. But if an all- out war with NATO were to develop no doubt supplies would be cut immediately. At the moment Russia needs the revenue from its oil and gas sales to finance its Ukraine war so a somewhat uneasy situation is currently in place as European nations desperately try to source alternate supplies and Russia looks for alternate markets, and the oil and gas continues to flow, with reducing delivery rates probably balanced in revenue terms by rising prices.

As for China it has long cornered the market for a number of absolutely key strategic metals and minerals, and where its domestic mines are not dominant it has sought to buy control of overseas mines which fit this criterion. For example, of the list of 35 metals and minerals deemed strategically critical by the U.S. , China is the dominant supplier of 21 of these. Most other western nations find themselves in a similar position.

But it is not only the supply of metals and minerals which is a current cause for concern. China is also a leader in certain aspects of technology, particularly in the communications and computing sphere. Indeed many U.S. technological products are now manufactured in China and there is a huge fear, possibly unfounded, that U.S. and allied security protocols may have been breached and accessed accordingly. Hence the recent actions taken against Huawei over its technology and equipment being used in new 5G communications systems, despite denials by the company and the Chinese government. Who believes government denials nowadays?

So what has all the above got to do with precious metals prices going forward? Absolutely everything we would suggest. It presages an era of global economic instability and tensions the like of which we have probably not seen for decades. Indeed not since the eras which led up to massive global conflicts. Let us hope and pray that the end game this time around is not something similar.

Such global geopolitical and economic instability, or the contemplation of such, tends to drive wealth into protective assets, and gold is probably the one that has best stood the test of time in this respect. Forget bitcoin, while some equities may do OK in such conditions but others may be decimated, and the choice between potential winners and losers tends to be a real gamble.

The worse the situation we find ourselves in the higher these ‘safe haven’ asset prices may rise – so be careful what you wish for. But we see the potential for the escalation of the war in Europe as decidedly worrying, as is that of China flexing its military muscles over Taiwan, particularly if the latter’s principal ally, the U.S., also becomes embroiled in a European conflict. Can its military fight successfully concurrent conflicts on opposite sides of the world simultaneously?

Hopefully all the above possibilities will remain theoretical only. But the very fact that they are even in the mind’s eye may well provide a continuing stimulus to the global gold price and drive it to new heights, But as long as no real actual military escalation occurs, price rises should remain under reasonable control and still continue to disappoint the out-and-out gold mega-bulls.

25 Jul 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Cambone confesses when at Kitco gold rigging was a prohibited subject.

a good read..

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Stansberry’s Cambone confesses: Gold market rigging was prohibited subject

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-07-23 09:24Section: Daily Dispatches

9:35a ET Saturday, July 23, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

This week’s Stansberry Research interview by Daniela Cambone of Mark Yaxley of bullion dealer Strategic Wealth Preservation is far more notable for what Cambone herself says than for anything said by Yaxley.

Cambone notes that lately much news has been produced by the trial of former JPMorgan Chase gold and silver traders on federal charges of market rigging. Then she tells Yaxley: 

“Back in the day, you remember when we started in the industry, the talk of gold manipulation was really … like, you couldn’t talk about it. It was like an underground thing. You were seen as a conspiracy person if you did speak about it, and now it’s really like it’s almost out in the open. Yes, banks were spoofing the prices.”

Yes, gold and silver market manipulation was all around them and financial journalists heard about it but none of them dared to attempt actual journalism by investigating it.

So it would be even more interesting if someone interviewed Cambone herself to discover exactly who at Kitco News directed her not to discuss the issue in her many years of doing interviews there, and to discover who seems to have renewed those instructions to Kitco’s current staff members.

But Cambone also leaves a mistaken impression here. For while the gold and silver sector now may be fully aware of the longstanding rigging of its markets, the government policy behind that rigging, which goes far beyond the Morgan traders who have been convicted and those who are now on trial, still can’t be addressed by mainstream financial news organizations and most monetary metals market analysts — nor by nearly all gold and silver mining companies themselves.

If Cambone really wants to make amends for her years of aiding gold and silver price suppression and the cheating of the investors who relied on her, she might consider interviewing a few of her bigshot friends in the industry about the extensive documentation of government gold price suppression policy, as compiled by GATA here —

https://gata.org/node/20925

— reviewing the documents one by one and asking the bigshots what they think about them after their years of denial that anything improper was going on. Their squirming would be enlightening for investors, and fun to watch.

Yaxley did make a couple of excellent points — first, that because because of its comprehensive misconduct in the gold and silver markets, JPMorgan Chase should be kicked out of the industry worldwide, even though the bank is so dominant that it would be hard to replace; and second, that premiums on gold and silver coins are causing prices to be much higher than futures prices.

Cambone’s interview with Yaxley, including her flippant confession, is 17 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here: 

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Patrick Heller: Is gold’s price manipulated.  Spoiler alert: yes

(Patrick Heller)

Patrick Heller: Is gold’s price manipulated?

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-07-22 10:18Section: Daily Dispatches

By Patrick Heller
Numismatic News
Stevens Point, Wisconsin
Thursday, July 21, 2022

Is the price of gold, and possibly silver, manipulated? The available evidence answers “yes” as it applies to decades past. The pattern strongly suggests that it is still happening today.

Overall, the manipulation has been to suppress the price of gold, where the suppression of silver’s price is one tactic employed to achieve a lower gold price.

In my column two weeks ago, I pointed out that a significant amount of trading in the gold market is not transparent. That provides the opportunity to manipulate the price of gold. But the important questions to answer are: Who has the legal authority, the financial clout, and the monetary incentive to want to suppress the price of gold?

The answer to all three of these questions is the U.S. government. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.numismaticnews.net/coin-market/is-golds-price-manipulated

END

(Chris Powell)

Another financial writer omits intervention when explaining gold’s counterintuitive performance

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-07-22 10:07Section: Daily Dispatches

Friday, July 22, 2022

Dan Weil
MarketWatch, New York

Dear Dan (if I may):

In response to your commentary today at MarketWatch on the counterintuitive failure of the gold price to reflect the explosion of inflation worldwide —

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/commodities/gold/gold-stalls-while-inflation-surges-what-gives

— please let me call to your attention a better and more documented explanation than any offered by your commentary: the decades-long policy of largely surreptitious intervention against gold by governments and central banks, especially the U.S. government.

A summary of this documentation and its objectives can be found at the internet site of my organization, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, here:

https://gata.org/node/20925

We realize that this is a sensitive subject and that governments and their agents among investment banks may bring powerful pressure on news organizations to stay away from it. Any news organization acknowledging the issue risks its advertising from these banks. But I urge you to look into it anyway, because the financial world is really not as it seems and gold pricing cannot be fairly reported without accounting for intervention.

With good wishes.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Manchester, Connecticut

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: EGGS

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7455

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7520

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.20 PTS OR  0.22%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 215.41 OR 0.77%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  106,21/Euro RISES TO 1.0248

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.200/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.46/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.045%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.27%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.07//

3j Gold at $1727.30 silver at: 18.62  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 35/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 57.64

3m oil into the 95 dollar handle for WTI and  104 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.46DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9637– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9870well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.81  UP 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.052  UP 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.85

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment supported amid USD-downside and Kremlin commentary, US 2yr ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 06:45 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board as the initially cautious tone amid soft-Ifo and weekend developments dissipated amid USD-downside and constructive Kremlin remarks
  • US futures also modestly bid into the busiest Q2 earnings week and pre-FOMC
  • USD is under pressure on the risk tone with EUR underpinned by Kazaks despite Ifo while antipodeans lead the way
  • Core debt has seen pronounced two-way action amid the above factors; currently, modestly softer with US yields steeper pre-2yr
  • Crude began on the backfoot but has benefited from the Kremlin re. Nord Stream with Ags bid after Odessa strikes
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index, US Dallas Fed, and supply from the US.

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US National Activity Index, US Dallas Fed, supply from the US.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • The Ukrainian port of Odesa was hit by a series of Russian missile strikes, according to Sky News. Russian Defence Minister said a Ukrainian warship and US-supplied anti-ship missiles were destroyed in the Odesa port attack, according to Reuters.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken said Russia breached the grain deal commitments with the attack on Odesa port, via Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin says Odessa port strikes were strikes on military targets, won’t affect grain exports.
  • Russian Kremlin says the repaired turbine delivered from Canada will soon be installed at Nord Stream 1, still equipment to be repaired which Siemens Energy (ENR GY) is aware of.
  • EU countries are reportedly attempting to water down the Commission’s plans to cut gas demand by 15% from next month, according to the FT citing sources and a draft proposal. One proposal suggests compulsory targets should take into account each state’s dependency on Russian gas and storage. Plans will be discussed on Monday before an emergency Energy Ministers’ meeting on Tuesday, according to the FT.
  • White House Defense Department spokesman said the US DoD is making preliminary explorations into the feasibility of potentially providing fighter jets for Ukraine, and said providing jets to Ukraine is not something that would be executed in the near term, according to Reuters.
  • Ukraine President Zelensky said roughly 10mln tonnes of last year’s grain harvest will be exported after the deal is signed with Russia, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian Presidential Advisor said if its ports are open, then Ukraine could transfer 60mln tonnes of grain over 8-9 months, but it will take 20-24 months to export the same amount if ports do not work, via Reuters.
  • Siemens (SIE GY) on Sunday transferred a Canadian export license to Gazprom that allows turbines for the Nord Stream gas pipeline to be repaired and transported. The pipeline part may be en route to Russia by midweek but there is no guarantee that the arrival of the turbine will boost gas flows, according to Bloomberg.

OTHER

  • French President Macron expressed disappointment to his Iranian counterpart about the lack of progress in nuclear talks, according to the Elysee Palace cited by Reuters.
  • Turkish Foreign Ministry has summoned Sweden to convey a “strong reaction” over “terrorist propaganda” in Sweden, according to Reuters. This comes in the context of Sweden’s NATO ascension
  • China has strengthened its warning to the US about House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, according to the FT. Sources suggest private rhetoric in China suggested a possible military response. Note, this is in-fitting with rhetoric seen via Global Times last week.
  • US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman and US Ambassador to Australia Kennedy plan to visit the Solomon Islands next month, according to Reuters sources. Note, China has recently signed a new security agreement with the Solomon Islands, which caused concern among officials in the US, Australia and New Zealand.
  • South Korean and US defence chiefs will be holding talks this week to discuss security on the Korean Peninsula and deterrence against evolving North Korean threats, according to Yonhap.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB’s Lagarde said the ECB will raise rates for as long as it takes to bring inflation back to target, according to an interview via Funke Mediengruppe.
  • ECB’s Nagel said it is better to start with a bigger hike and is confident that ECB’s TPI would survive legal challenges, according to Handelsblatt. He added that future rate hikes are to depend on data, and we still see positive growth in 2022 and 2023. He said TPI is to be used in exceptional circumstances.
  • ECB’s Holzmann said the ECB may accept a “light recession” if the outlook for CPI rises, according to an interview via ORF. Holzmann said the ECB is to consider the economic situation before another big hike and said economic growth is slowing and that has brought in caution.
  • ECB’s Kazaks says large interest rate hikes may not be over; too weak EUR is a “problem”. The hike in September needs to be quite “significant” and should be open to larger hikes.
  • BoJ’s Takata (new member) says the BoJ is able to keep monetary policy easy, but are facing new challenges such as dwindling bank margin and impact on market function.
  • BoJ’s Tamura (new member) says Japan may soon see positive cycle commence, with wages increasing with inflation. If this occurred, exit from easy policy would become focus of discussions.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board as the initially cautious tone amid soft-Ifo and weekend developments dissipated amid USD-downside and constructive Kremlin remarks; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%.
  • US futures are modestly firmer, ES +0.5%, as we kick off the busiest week of earnings for Q2 and in the run-up to the FOMC.
  • Tesla (TSLA) discloses a USD 170mln impairment loss resulting from changes to the carrying value of Bitcoin during H1 (ending June 30th). Increases FY22-24 CapEx to USD 6-8bln/yr (prev. 5-7bln).
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY down again ahead of the Fed on Wednesday as risk appetite recovers broadly, index slips further from 107.00 to 106.240.
  • Euro underpinned by hawkish ECB commentary and supportive Russian gas supply vibe to the extent that bleak German Ifo survey findings are shrugged off, USD/USD probes 1.0250 where hefty option expiry interest sits (1.86bln).
  • Aussie derives traction from spike in iron ore prices, AUD/USD through 0.6950 and towards circa 1bln option expiries at 0.7000 strike.
  • Franc and Yen underperform as bond yields rebound firmly from recent lows, USD/CHF around 0.9625 and USD/JPY 136.00+ vs Friday lows of 0.9600 and 135.57.
  • Yuan welcomes PBoC notice of recovery in support of cultural and tourism sectors plus reports of Chinese real estate fund, USD/CNH and USD/CNY both sub-6.7500 compared to highs at 7.7667 and 6.7577 respectively.
  • Lira laments deterioration in Turkish manufacturing confidence, USD/TRY just shy of 17.8400.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt futures flip then flop in choppy fashion amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and encouraging news from Russia on EU gas supplies.
  • Bunds rebound to 154.86 before retreat to 153.78, Gilts recoil from 117.48 to 117.02 and 10 year T-note within a 120-02+/119-21 range
  • Downbeat German Ifo survey and mixed UK CBI industrial orders vs business optimism largely ignored
  • 2 year note supply looms and may be interesting as a gauge of investor demand ahead of the Fed
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks began the session on the back foot, amidst the generally cautious APAC mode where participants were digesting multiple updates including Russia/Ukraine, Nord Stream, China/US and reiterations from Biden.
  • However, a seeming USD-driven move lifted the benchmarks back towards session highs amid a concerted risk move following Kremlin commentary.
  • US President Biden said gasoline prices are still too high and is working to make sure gasoline prices move with oil prices and said companies should use profits to boost output, according to Reuters.
  • LME will not ban Nornickel’s metal as the Russian firm is not under UK sanctions, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chicago wheatcorn and soybean futures rose at the open, possibly on the back of reports that the Ukrainian port of Odessa was hit by Russian missiles less than 24 hours after the signing of the grains agreement in Turkey.
  • Malaysia’s Commodities Minister said crude palm oil prices are likely to remain weak for most of Q3 2022 as Jakarta lifts the exports levy; but prices are expected to be higher in Q4 amid the resumption of Indonesia’s palm oil export levy, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold has found support from the declining USD, lifting to USD 1733.70/oz, though upside is capped by the broader risk tone with the yellow metal yet to test Friday’s USD 1738.99/oz best.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Italy’s far-right Brothers of Italy party is reportedly struggling to find ministerial candidates, according to The Times.
  • A survey by DIHK of 3,500 firms in Germany found that 16% are scaling back production or partially pausing business operations amid high energy prices, via Reuters.
  • Fitch affirmed Hungary at “BBB”; outlook Stable; affirmed Ireland at “AA”; outlook stable.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden’s physician said the president’s COVID symptoms continue to improve significantly, according to Reuters.
  • Google (GOOG) co-founder Brin reportedly told his advisers to sell his personal investments in Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk’s companies in recent months after learning that he had a brief affair with his wife, according to WSJ. Elon Musk denied the report, via Twitter.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

DATA RECAP

  • German Ifo Business Climate New (Jul) 88.6 vs. Exp. 90.2 (Prev. 92.3, Rev. 92.2); Current Conditions New (Jul) 97.7 vs. Exp. 98.0 (Prev. 99.3, Rev. 99.4); Expectations New (Jul) 80.3 vs. Exp. 83.0 (Prev. 85.8, Rev. 85.5)
  • UK CBI Trends – Orders (Jul) 8 (Prev. 18.0).

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin remains under pressure and is yet to convincingly reclaims the USD 22k mark, after slipping to USD 21.75k overnight.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded mostly lower with the tech sector in the region hit following the Stateside sectoral performance.
  • ASX 200 saw the gains in its Metals & Mining sector offset by a selloff in Tech.
  • Nikkei 225 underperformed following the JPY strength seen on Friday, whilst the KOSPI outpaced peers.
  • Hang Seng was lower following reports China is said to be mulling categorising US-listed Chinese firms into three groups based on the sensitivity of data held by the firms, but the property sector outperformed amid reports that China is planning to set up a real estate fund.
  • Shanghai Comp was also softer but monkeypox-related stocks soared after the WHO declared monkeypox a global health emergency.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China is reportedly imposing COVID “closed loops” on major Shenzhen companies which include Foxconn (2354 TW), BYD (1211 HK), CNOOC (0833 HK) and Huawei (002502 SZ), via Bloomberg.
  • China is said to be mulling categorising US-listed Chinese firms into three groups based on the sensitivity of data held by the firms, according to FT sources.
  • Neither the EU nor China believes that conditions are ripe for the implementation of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement, according to Chinese sources cited by SGH Macro.
  • China reportedly plans to set up a real estate fund worth up to USD 44bln, according to REDD cited by Reuters.
  • Hong Kong is reportedly planning to cut hotel quarantine times, according to Sing Tao Daily.
  • The Sakurajima volcano on Japan’s western major island of Kyushu has erupted with the alert level raised to 5 – the highest, according to Sky News. No damage has been reported but volcanic stones could be seen raining down up to 1.5 miles away from the site, according to NHK.
  • China’s securities regulator said in a statement it has not researched a plan for a three-tiered system to help Chinese companies avoid US delisting, according to CNBC.

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.59 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.20 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 215.41 OR % 0.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7455//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7520//    /Oil UP TO 95.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 104.26// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.59 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.20 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 215.41 OR % 0.77.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.08%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/Sunday

Chinese property continues to cause major problems for China.  Most of Chinese property junk bonds are now trading below 35 cents

(Xie/Bloomberg)

Most Chinese Property Junk Bonds Are Trading Below 35 Cents

SUNDAY, JUL 24, 2022 – 09:45 PM

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

1. China’s mortgage-boycott problem is still growing. More homebuyers halted payments on unfinished apartments, affecting at least 319 projects, up from 235 a week ago, according to Capital Economics. By all accounts, the situation is still manageable. Most economists estimate that the affected loans make up about 1%-2% of China’s $5.8 trillion in mortgages.

But the problem is that Beijing has yet to break the vicious circle in the housing market. The boycotts undermine confidence of new homebuyers, which reduces the cash flow of troubled developers and causes more of the type of construction delays that motivated the boycotts in the first place.

Already, the top 100 private developers, which account for more than a third of the projects under construction, are experiencing liquidity risks, according to Goldman Sachs. Reflecting this risk, about 73% of China’s high-yield property bonds are trading below 35 cents on the dollar, a level deemed as distressed by Goldman’s analysts. Left unsolved, it could quickly create problems in the banking system.

What’s the solution? Policy makers are considering remedies, including allowing a grace period for mortgage payments of affected homeowners. Bank of America’s economists led by Helen Qiao expect local governments and state-owned enterprises to step in to complete the unfinished projects. But they also warn that it may take time to resolve the issue, and governments of lower-tier cities may not have sufficient funds to come to the rescue.

2. The housing troubles and sporadic Covid outbreaks took momentum out of the economic rebound. The consensus 2022 GDP forecast in a Bloomberg survey has declined to 4%, and a number of economists, including at Bloomberg Economics, only see a growth rate of 3%. The outperformance of Chinese stocks since last month also has faded.

In response to the latest housing drama, the PBOC kept liquidity abundant, with interbank borrowing costs dropping below 1.5% for the first time since December 2020. Meanwhile, traders took advantage of the cheap funding to build leverage in the bond market, sending the overnight repo trading volume to records almost on a daily basis.

3. Recession risks keep rising as central banks tighten monetary policy. A survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global on Friday showed activities in both the euro zone and US contracted. The ECB ended eight years of negative interest rates with a 50bp hike last week. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 bps this week for a second consecutive meeting. But traders are betting that the Fed will slow down the rate increases afterward and wrap the tightening campaign by December.

END

Monday:  China cracks:  the mortgage boycott prompts the government to launch a multi billion property rescue fund

(zerohedge)

Beijing Cracks: Mortgage Boycott Prompts China To Launch Multi-Billion Property Rescue Fund

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 08:47 AM

With Chinese property sentiment sinking from bad to worse amid the growing mortgage boycott – which for now remains contained affecting about 1%-2% of China’s $5.8 trillion in mortgages. but spreading rapidly – and Goldman observing over the weekend that over 70% of Chinese property junk bonds (as there are virtually no investment grade bonds left in China real estate) are trading below 35 cents…

… on Monday, Chinese property stocks and dollar bonds rallied sharply after a reported move by Beijing to establish a fund to support developers fueled optimism about a turnaround for the struggling sector.  A Bloomberg Intelligence index of the country’s real estate firms jumped 1.7%, the most in a week…

… while China’s high-yield dollar notes, predominately issued by developers, rose at least 1 cent on the dollar, according to credit traders, with a Bloomberg gauge tracking the sector set for the longest winning streak in two months.

The catalyst for the mood reversal was a report by REDD that China’s State Council has approved a plan to set up a fund to support 12 developers and a few new distressed real estate firms nominated by local authorities. If confirmed, the move would mark one of the most direct measures yet taken by Beijing to salvage a sector roiled by massive defaults, slumping sales and a widening boycott on bank loans.

According to REDD, the fund secured 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) from China Construction Bank Corp. and a 30 billion yuan relending facility from the People’s Bank of Chinaand can be upsized to between 200 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan, it added.

“The mortgage boycott is effectively forcing Beijing to ease credit conditions for developers,” said Amy Xie Patrick, a portfolio manager at Pendal Group Ltd. “The real estate fund, if confirmed, is a stronger initiative compared to previously guiding state banks to lend to property developers, but it won’t be enough to solve the problem unless it can be capitalized by a blank check  from the Chinese government,” she said.

Bloomberg was first to report some aspects of the plan last week, revealing that regulators have asked China Construction Bank, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, to explore a pilot program to set up a fund with selected local governments to purchase projects under construction that have yet to find buyers, with the aim of converting them into apartments for long-term rentals.

The reported plan for the state fund offers the latest indication of growing ease among policymakers over a deepening housing bust that threatens both financial and social stability, as it sends shock waves through China’s 400-million-strong middle class and upends the belief that real estate is a surefire way to build wealth. As a reminder, Goldman last year calculated that the Chinese property market is the world’s biggest asset; needless to say, a crash here would lead to an unprecedented global deflationary shockwave.

In response to the news, property developers surged: Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. gained 5.7%, with Country Garden Holdings Co. was up 4.5%. In the credit market, dollar bonds of investment-grade Chinese developers jumped in tandem with their junk peers, led by China Vanke and Longfor Group Holdings. In the credit market, dollar bonds of investment-grade Chinese developers jumped in tandem with their junk peers, led by China Vanke Co. and Longfor Group Holdings.

Of course, as Jim Chanos was quick to point, the current iteration of the rescue fund is a drop in the bucket…

… and as Bloomberg notes, the 12 developers expected to benefit from the fund rescue have a combined short-term debt of 742 billion yuan, UBS analysts calculated. The number would swell to 4.05 trillion yuan when taking into account the amount owed to homebuyers and suppliers, they added.

In other words, now that Beijing has cracked and is willing to backstop housing, this is just the start and UBS agrees: despite the fund’s limited size, “clearly the government is signaling it wants to restore homebuyers’ confidence and encourage them to start purchasing houses again,” said Steve Wong, an analyst at Essence International Financial Holdings Ltd. “Setting up a fund is more feasible since a broad-based easing for the sector is unlikely.”

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

/GERMANY//GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU//update

Putin ties a rope around the neck of Germany as Gazprom unexpectedly halts more transmission through Nordstream 1, cuts flows in half.  European gas prices soar

(zerohedge) 

Putin Turns The Screws: Gazprom Unexpectedly Halts Another Nord Stream Turbine Cutting Flows In Half; European Gas Prices Soar

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 10:53 AM

Europeans, and especially Germans, breathed a sigh of relief last Thursday when amid fears that Moscow would not restart flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after its 10 day maintenance period, Putin turned the gas back on, if just to its pre-maintenance peak level of about 40% of maximum capacity.

Alas Europe’s muted celebration were not meant to last, and with many speculating that Russia was just waiting for the right opportunity to turn the screws on Germany, both literally and metaphorically, that’s precisely what happened moments ago when shortly after Siemens finally delivered transport documents for the controversial Nord Stream turbine that had been stuck in Canada for weeks, Gazprom unexpectedly announced it would halt one more Nord Stream turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from July 27, “taking into account the technical conditions of the engine,” the Russian company says in a statement.

This means that as had been whispered much of last week, gas flows from Portovaya will drop to as much as 33 million cubic meters per day from 7am Moscow time on July 27, which means flows along NS1 will decline by half, from 40% of capacity to just 20%.

  • GERMAN NETWORK REGULATOR HEAD: NORD STREAM 1 GAS NOMINATIONS HALVED FOR TUESDAY

According to Bloomberg energy expert Javier Blas, with “Nord Stream 1 flowing at just 20% of capacity from July 27, Germany will NOT have enough natural gas to make it throughout the whole winter **unless big demand reductions are implemented**. Berlin will need to activate stage 3 of its gas.”

Translation: unless Putin changes his mind, Germany is facing not just a freezing winter, but a bitter recession.

In kneejerk response, European (TTF) nat gas prices spiked 10% and are likely to keep rising as Putin just assured that – all else equal – a recession Germany is now inevitable, and yet since commodity prices will continue to rise, the ECB remains helpless: it can’t cut rates without sending inflation even higher, but it can’t keep hiking with Europe now in a recession.

end

Now Germany must resort to coal.  However the Rhine river is low on water levels and thus difficult to transport coal

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Amusing Tales Of A Coal Bottleneck In Germany & The Failure To Plan

SUNDAY, JUL 24, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Germany is increasingly dependent on coal, but river levels are too low to transport it. Let’s also compare Germany’s failure to plan vs Biden’s lack of planning.

Shipping News, Coal Edition

Here’s an amusing story about Germany’s increasing dependence on coal via Eurointelligence

One of the more shocking statistics about German electricity production is that coal constituted some 32% in the third quarter of 2021. Coal is not only the largest single source of power generation in Germany. Its share has been rising, up from 26.4% from a year earlier. The reason is the increase in gas prices. The withdrawal of three nuclear power stations at the beginning of this year, and the remaining three at the beginning of next year, will lead to a further increase in the proportion of coal in energy production. Robert Habeck [Vice-Chancellor of Germany] wants coal to become the fallback in case Russia cuts off the gas. So there could a massive short-term increase in coal production.

Except the industry is not ready for it. One big problem is transportation. We reported on the falling levels of the river Rhine, and its huge role for Germany’s supply chain. This is where all the heavy stuff is transported, like coal. Germany has no problems importing coal, but struggles to get the coal to power stations. Apart from low water levels, the capacity of Germany’s logistics industry is being used up to transport wheat and other cereals from Ukraine. The rail system is also overloaded. Transportation infrastructure is fixed in the short run. And since coal production is ultimately doomed, nobody has invested in long-term transportation infrastructure projects, and we presume nobody will.

The reason for the lack of investment is the government’s plan to phase out coal production by 2030. What they did not see coming is the reversal of the downward trend in global production that started last year and that, we presume, will have continued this year. Habeck’s plan to expand coal production further in case of a Russian gas embargo came as a shock to the industry, as Bild reports. They were not prepared for this. It means the decommissioned coal-fired power stations would have to be dusted off and rekindled. They also haven’t invested in staff.

Remarkably Stupid in Many Ways

  • Angela Merkel mothballed nuclear power plants to appease the Greens.
  • The Nord Stream II natural gas pipeline is ready to deliver gas but is totally shut down due to sanctions
  • Nord Stream I needs repairs but sanctions limited availability of parts
  • Rather than put the nuclear plants back in production Germany is resorting to more coal but supply constraints hinder getting the coal to the plants.
  • German Greens would rather use more coal than nuclear.
  • Sanctions have driven up the price of natural gas so much that Germany is discussing rationing natural gas.
  • Coal is the single largest method of generating electricity in Germany, 32 percent in the third quarter of 2021 up from 26.4 percent. It’s use is undoubtedly higher today.

Well Done Germany!

Also note Germany’s Climate Protection Minister Mandates More Coal to Produce Electricity

And Let’s Investigate Alleged EU Environmental and Climate Change Progress

This is what happens when you mandate green energy and have no legitimate plan to get there. 

US vs Germany

In the US, president Biden had no realistic plan to phase out fossil fuels but sought to mandate targets anyway.

Fortunately, on July 15, I was pleased to report Hooray! Senator Manchin Finally Kills Biden’s Build Back Better Initiative

UnfortunatelyBiden Declares Climate Emergency to demand more green energy.

Fortunately, I expect the Supreme Court to nix whatever Progressive nonsense Biden concocts to deal with climate change. See the above link for discussion.

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

END

EUROPE

An excellent read

(Dr Lacalle)

Why Artificially Low Rates Are Bad For You

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The disastrous era of negative rates may be ending but it is not over. Imposing negative nominal and real rates is a colossal error that has only encouraged excessive indebtedness and the zombification of the economy. However, nominal rates may be rising but real rates remain deeply negative. In other words, rates are still exceptionally low for the level of inflation we have.

Negative interest rates are the destruction of money, an economic aberration based on the idea that rates are too high and that is why economic agents do not invest or take the amount of credit that central planners desire.

The excuse for implementing negative rates is based on a fallacy: that central banks lower rates because markets demand it and policy makers only respond to that demand, they do not impose it. If that were the case, why not let the rates fluctuate freely if the result is going to be the same? Because it is a false premise.

Imposing artificially low rates is the ultimate form of interventionism.

Depressing the price of risk is a subsidy to reckless behaviour and excessive debt.

Why is it bad for everyone to keep negative rates?

The reader may think I am crazy because hiking rates makes mortgages more expensive, and families suffer. However, you should also ask yourself why house prices rise to unaffordable levels. Because cheap borrowing drives higher indebtedness and makes asset prices significantly above affordability levels.

First, prudent saving and investment are penalized and excessive debt and risk-taking are promoted. Think for a moment what kind of business is the one that is viable with negative rates, but not with rates at 0.5%. A time bomb.

It is no accident that zombie companies have soared in an environment of falling interest rates. A zombie company is one that cannot pay interest on debt with operating profits, has negative return on assets, or negative net investment. According to a study by the Bank of International Settlements, the percentage of zombie companies has risen to all-time highs in the period of low rates.

Zombie companies are less productive, riskier and may create a systemic problem. Furthermore, negative rates curb creative destruction, essential for progress and productivity.

In the case of governments, negative rates have been a dangerous tool. They have made it comfortable to take on vast amounts of debt and make deficits skyrocket.

A policy designed as something exceptional and temporary was extended for more than a decade leaving a trail of inefficiency, malinvestment and excess debt.

A policy designed to buy time and conduct structural reforms has become an excuse to avoid them, take more debt and increase imbalances.

But negative real and nominal rates disguise risk, giving a false sense of solvency and security that quickly dissipates with a slight change in the economic cycle. These extremely low rates generate greater problems as risk accumulates above what central banks and supervisors estimate, starting with governments themselves.

Negative rates have fuelled the public debt bubble that will end with higher taxes, higher inflation, lower growth, or all of them together.

Of course, the other effect of this economic aberration is high inflation, the tax on the poor. For years it has generated enormous inflation in assets, by encouraging risk taking, from the real estate sector to the multiples of industrial assets or infrastructure. Borrowing was unusually cheap and when credit soars, it flows towards high-risk assets and, of course, the creation of bubbles.

It is surprising. The entire economic consensus recognizes that the rate cuts of the early 2000s led to the bubbles that cemented the excess of risk prior to the 2008 crisis. However, that same consensus applauds the madness of negative rates because there is a perverse incentive in statism when the bubble is sovereign debt.

After the high inflation in assets, high inflation of consumer prices has arrived, a double negative effect for savers and real wages.

The European Central Bank has raised rates… to zero! The biggest increase in 22 years and the first time without negative rates for eight years. With inflation in the eurozone at 8.6%, it is clearly an insufficient and timid rise.

Interest rates are the cost of risk and with these rates the policy of central banks continues to penalize savings and prudent investment in real and nominal terms, while risk-taking is encouraged.

It is amazing to read that some think it is imprudent to raise rates… to zero! with core inflation at levels not seen since 1992.

Will mortgages go up in Europe? Of course. But it seems incredible to me that the economic debate is on whether 40-year mortgage rates go to 2% instead of why they were at 1.2% in the first place.

When you worry about the cost of a new mortgage going up, think that house prices have skyrocketed well above what we consider affordable precisely because of negative rates.

Hardly anyone buys something they cannot afford taking debt if the interest rate reflects the genuine cost of risk.

Bubbles and credit excesses always occur after a planned incentive such as artificially lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity above the real demand for currency.

Of course, when bubbles burst, interventionists never blame the artificial lowering of interest rates or printing money… they blame “the market”.

Cheap money is expensive. The problem for the next few years is not going to be adapting to rates that will continue to be exceptionally low, but to realize the excess risk accumulated in the era of monetary insanity.

Those colleagues who recommend central banks to be “prudent” and not raise rates too quickly should have warned of the madness of lowering them at full speed until reaching negative levels.

If rates fluctuated freely, the creation of bubbles and excesses of debt would be almost impossible because the risk would be reflected in the cost of money.

The best way to prevent financial bubbles and crises is not to encourage excess risk and debt by artificially lowering rates.

Rates do not have to be hiked or cut by a central planner. They need to float freely. Anything else creates more imbalances than the alleged benefits they promote.

end

GERMANY//SIEMENS/GAZPROM

Siemens Finally Delivers Gazprom Transport Documents For Nord Stream Turbine

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 10:00 AM

Siemens Energy AG has finally delivered a Canadian export license for a Russian Gazprom PJSC natural gas turbine, which helps pump NatGas into the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Russian state-media outlet Kommersant reported that a resolution to the paperwork delays would allow for the NatGas turbine to be shipped from Germany to Helsinki, Finland, in the next couple of days. 

Kommersant said the turbine delivery wouldn’t immediately result in increased NatGas flows on the Nord Stream 1 due to other equipment needing maintenance work. 

Moscow recently said the turbine had been in Canada at a Siemens facility – the only place in the world where it can be worked on – but has since been “stuck in transit” in Germany. 

Kremlin officials have accused Europe of intentionally delaying the turbine shipment out of Germany. Earlier this month, Canada granted a special sanctions waiver for the turbine’s return, citing solidarity with European allies like Germany, badly in need of the smooth return of NatGas supply on the most critical pipeline to Europe. 

Nord Stream 1 was cut to 40% of its capacity starting in June due to what Russia blamed on Canadian sanctions. Nord Stream was completely shuttered for a ten-day maintenance period but reopened last week. 

“The turbine will be installed after all the technical formalities have been completed, and the flows will be at the levels that are technologically possible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday. 

Peskov noted, “we have issues with other equipment, of which Siemens is well aware,” adding Nord Stream woes are only beginning. 

He said Russia is “not interested” in a complete turnoff of Nord Stream 1 but warned, “if Europe continues its course of absolutely recklessly imposing sanctions and restrictions that are hitting it, the situation may change.” 

Peskov said Europeans are only to blame for the continent’s below-average NatGas storage ahead of winter. He said Europeans are suffering the consequences of their own sanctions against Russia. 

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank recently warned: “Don’t forget as well that Putin has suggested that if the turbine is not back early this week, then gas flow may fall to 20% capacity even though originally, this turbine wasn’t expected to be needed until September.” 

END

ECB

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Odessa port rocked by missile strikes. Russia hit ammunition’s depots.

(zerohedge)

Odessa Port Rocked By Missile Strikes Hours After Ukraine Grain Export Deal Signed

SATURDAY, JUL 23, 2022 – 12:00 PM

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned a fresh missile attack on the key Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, which came a mere hours after a major UN-brokered Russia-Ukraine deal was reached to unblock Ukrainian grain export transit. Western media and officials are widely calling it a continued deliberate attack on Ukraine’s vital grain export infrastructure by Russia, despite the signed breakthrough agreement in Istanbul the evening prior.

“The secretary-general unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa,” Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said following the strikes, some of which were captured on video…

The UN statement, however, stopped short of assigning blame or that the attack violated the grain export deal agreed to by Russia. 

The enemy attacked the Odesa sea trade port with Kalibr cruise missiles; 2 missiles were shot down by air defense forces; 2 hit the infrastructure of the port,” the Operational Command South wrote on Telegram on Saturday.

America’s ambassador to Kiev slammed the attacks as “outrageous” and demanded that Russia be held to account…

The UN’s Haq continued, “Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets,” adding that “These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Türkiye is imperative.”

And The New York Times weighed in on whether this will collapse the deal even before it gets off the ground: “Russia may not have technically violated the deal, since it did not pledge to avoid attacking the parts of the Ukrainian ports that are not directly used for the grain exports, according to a senior U.N. official.”

The two sides inked what Kiev was eager to stress were separate but “mirror” agreements with the UN. The Ukrainian government has said will not negotiate directly with the Russian side until all its national territory is returned. There were not even photo ops involving Russian and Ukrainian officials in the same vicinity in the same room.Friday’s grain deal signing ceremony, via EPA-EFE

UN Secretary General António Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were present for the finalized deal at Istanbul’s lavish Dolmabahce Palace, with Erdogan saying the landmark deal would “hopefully revive the path to peace.”

Guterres said, “Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea — a beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief” – as over 20 million tons of grain which especially a number of Mideast and African nations are heavily reliant upon are expected to be released.

Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov later in the day said there was not significant damage from the Russian strikes, and announced“We continue technical preparations for the launch of exports of agricultural products from our ports.”

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Ukraine moves to criminalize Russian passport application

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Moves To Criminalize Russian Passport Application

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Less than a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a hugely controversial decree ordering that “all citizens of Ukraine” be given “the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereschuk revealed on Friday that lawmakers intend to make obtaining Russian citizenship as a Ukrainian a criminal offense.

In a Telegram post, Vereschuk said that the matter had previously been discussed during a closed interdepartmental meeting, RT reported.

The question is not so much a legal one as a political one. 

On the one hand, the occupier’s passport helps an ordinary person to survive the temporary occupation. 

On the other hand, how to explain it to our citizens who stand to die for us all on the front lines? Including for the fact that there will never be Russian passports on our land.

You can have a long and difficult discussion about legal subtleties, human rights and the need to survive under occupation.

 But let’s not forget: there is a lot of Ukrainian blood on the red Russian passport – military and civilian, women and children.

The deputy prime minister concluded:

Work on the draft law continues, there will be discussions, but the direction has been determined.

Two days ago, she wrote on Facebook that passports and referendums were being used by Moscow as “weapons, more dangerous than missiles.”

In her opinion, these “weapons” enable Russia to create a “live shield” of Ukrainian citizens in the territories it controls.

END

A must read:

the truth behind what is going on in the war between Russia and Ukraine

(Jim Rickards)

Rickards: Needless Death And Misery

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The war in Ukraine is in its sixth month, and there’s no end in sight.

Here’s what we know…

Almost everything you heard about the war in Ukraine from U.S. media over the course of March, April and May was a lie.

You heard that Putin was losing the war.

You heard that Russians had poor training and low morale and were deserting in droves. You heard that Ukrainians were destroying Russian armor in large numbers to blunt the Russian advance.

None of this was true.

In fact, Russian troops have achieved major victories in Mariupol, Kherson, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and other key targets that control rivers, ports and junctions in Ukraine.

U.S. Willing to Fight Russia to the Last Ukrainian

This article isn’t about strategy and I don’t want to get too deeply into the weeds, but Russia’s next targets are Slovyansk and Bakhmut, which will consolidate Russia’s control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Russia has also deployed anti-drone laser systems that have neutralized Ukraine’s ability to target Russian positions with drones. The endgame is the takeover of Odessa, which would give Russia control of 100% of Ukraine’s coastlines along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

A negotiated settlement that cedes Russian control over Crimea and the Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine is probably the most realistic solution available to end the war. But the U.S. doesn’t want the war to end. Its plan is to wear Russia down through a protracted conflict, no matter how much the Ukrainian people suffer.

The battlefield situation aside, the story is even worse from the U.S. perspective…

Blowback!

Russia is not just winning the war on the ground. It’s winning the global financial and economic war launched by Biden and our European allies.

Russia’s revenues from oil and natural gas exports are at all-time highs. The Russian ruble is much stronger today than it was when the war began. China and India are buying all the Russian oil that Europe is refusing to buy.

Meanwhile, the economies of the U.S. and the EU are in or very near to recession. Inflation is out of control in the West. Commodity shortages will lead quickly to food shortages and more empty shelves in supermarkets.

Across the board, Biden’s economic sanctions have backfired and are hurting the U.S. and Europe far more than they are hurting Russia.

Not Pro-Russian, But Pro-Truth

I’ve been reporting honestly on the war since the beginning. My readers have not been misled by false reporting because I’ve been candid about the real impact of sanctions and Russia’s brutal but effective battlefield tactics.

It’s not that I’m pro-Russian — I’m not. I’m pro-truth. And I don’t defend the Russian invasion in any way (although I do understand it).

Even Bloomberg and The New York Times are now starting to admit that the war is a lost cause for Ukraine and the U.S. economy is suffering from sanctions aimed at Russia. But it’s a little late for legacy media to get their story straight.

What we know right now is the economic damage to the U.S. economy will get much worse before the economy gets better. Biden won’t stop the sanctions soon. That means the trashing of the U.S. economy will continue.

Meanwhile, Russia is “temporarily” shutting down the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to Germany for repairs. Of course, the temporary shutdown may become permanent. It’s just more proof that U.S.-led sanctions only hurt the U.S. and Europe, not Russia.

Failed Sanctions Against Russia May Actually Lead to Other Wars

Here’s another potentially dangerous side effect of the failed sanctions campaign against Russia:

Economic sanctions may now facilitate war instead of preventing or stopping it. Why? Because U.S. sanctions on Russia are a complete failure. Nations considering invasions that might have been deterred because of sanctions threats may now feel emboldened and that they can proceed with confidence.

How this new dynamic plays out in hotspots like the Taiwan Strait remains to be seen. But it would be deeply ironic if sanctions actually encouraged China to move against Taiwan.

These are the sorts of issues that should be thoroughly thought through before action is taken. But our political leaders are incapable of thinking even one move ahead.

The U.S. has already committed about $56 billion to assist Ukraine, which will likely turn out to be a very poor investment. But American taxpayers might be fleeced even more…

Give Us More Money!

The prime minister of Ukraine has calmly asked an international conference for $750 billion of assistance to rebuild Ukraine after the war. Nice try. There are a few problems with this. First of all, there will be no Ukraine to rebuild, at least not in its current form.

Russia will take somewhere between a third and half the country and keep it. The parts that Russia is taking control of include the industrial nexus, the largest natural resource deposits and the most fertile land. Russia will be able to finance the reconstruction of their conquests using the very industrial capacity, mining and agricultural output they have captured.

Russia will also control the ports and major rivers and will be able to tax the remainder of Ukraine for access. The gradual result will be a prosperous part of Ukraine controlled by Russia and a desperately poor part of Ukraine left to the corrupt oligarchs under Zelenskyy.

You’re on the Hook to Rebuild Ukraine

When asked how Ukraine will finance the $750 billion demanded, the prime minister said they could use assets seized from Russian oligarchs. But that’s ridiculous. There may be $5 billion or $10 billion in yachts and townhouses, but nothing close to $750 billion.

The truth is that this money will be expected to come from the U.S. and the EU, either directly or indirectly through the World Bank and the IMF. In other words, you are going to pay for it one way or the other. Of course, most of the money would end up in the hands of corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.

It’s unlikely much reconstruction will get done anyway because Ukraine has long been a money-laundering operation for the benefit of U.S. politicians including the Clintons, Bidens and Obamas.

That’s something to bear in mind when your taxes start going up to “help” Ukraine.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 on Twitter: “🚨BIGGEST ALBERTA NEWS STORY OF 2022. The Alberta Court of Appeal just destroyed Jason Kenney’s two-year persecution of Pastor Artur Pawlowski. They ruled that the injunction against him, his arrest, his jail time, the censorship order and fines against him were illegal.” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert HryniakFri, Jul 22, 5:49 PM (15 hours ago)
to

https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1550520504947195905

Dr Paul Alexander.


Open in browser
URGENT CDC update July 23rd 2022: MONKEYPOX confirmed in US children, 2 cases; “CDC: Both of those children traced back to individuals who come from the men-who-have-sex-with-men community, gay men”

WARNING: Fauci, Walensky, Francis Collins, CDC, NIH, WHO, Health Canada, PHAC etc.; these agencies & people are deliberately causing monkeypox to spread to low risk heterosexual community (monogamous)
Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 23

SOURCE

CDC confirms first U.S. cases of monkeypox in children‘‘Both of those children traced back to individuals who come from the men-who-have-sex-with-men community, gay men”

This is outrageous and all should be fired! We have predicted what would happen and it is happening.Months now, I have been writing, screaming out, that if this is localized to the GAY community and bisexual community, that we use acute contact tracing, isolation as warranted, urgent public service announcements, and you tell the GAY community and bisexual males that they are not to have sexual contact, any intimate skin-to-skin contact for several weeks, 2-3 weeks collectively, so that we could bring this under control and even eliminate this outbreak. Is that too difficult to do?A game of political correctness has been played since day 1 and Fauci et al, not out of stupidity here for they know what they are doing, they are deliberately, as with HIV, causing this to spread out of the high-risk group to become a problem for the low-risk heterosexual community. Low risk monogamous people especially women, now must be concerned for it is the bisexual community, their partners, even husbands who may engage with men, who would bring this home. She may think she is low risk and monogamous but sometimes she is not. We learnt this with HIV, it was the man who would visit commercial sex workers who engaged in other high risk behaviors like injecting drug use etc., who, in visiting sex workers then took it home to the wife, she thinking she is absolved of HIV. She was monogamous but got HIV as he was not.This may be difficult for you to read how I say it but I am blunt in how I speak and write and need you to understand. Monkeypox is NOT a problem for the non-GAY heterosexual community, but will expand and become one as Fauci et al. works to make it one. The CDC and NIH and WHO et al. are IMO deliberately working to allow this to expand to the low risk general population.We need acute surveillance of the expectant mothers, women who are seeking to have children (pre and ante-natal) for we use this group as our sentinel surveillance group for in any society, she is the lowest risk individual for STDs and pathogen that may involved physical contact. In fact for most pathogen. If we find monkeypox there, then it is all over as being able to contain it.“Due to repetitive activation of the immune system in C-19 vaccinees, several infectious diseases can now be spread asymptomatically by vaccinees. Due to widespread asymptomatic transmission in highly vaccinated countries and the subsequent rise in infectious pressure, infection-mediated immunity in certain subsets of the population no longer suffices to prevent productive infection. This is now basically igniting the global spread of a number of acute, self-limiting microbial infections (e.g., ‘seasonal’ Flu, RSV but also vaccine-preventable viral and bacterial infections in countries that interrupted their childhood vax program due to Covid crisis) and also of some acute, self-limiting viral diseases (e.g., monkeypox, pandemic [avian H5N1] flu). In addition, depletion of cytotoxic CD8 T cells due to repetitive cycles of re-infection has also led to an increased recurrence/reactivation rate of chronic infections (e.g., herpetic diseases + CMV, EBV, CMV, HIV, tuberculosis..) and relapse or metastasis of certain cancers in vaccinees.If you’re not C-19 vaccinated: You should under no condition get the seasonal Flu shot as vaccination with inactivated Flu vaccines will dramatically increase the risk of catching ADEI in the event you get exposed to avian flu. Under no condition should you get a non-replicating smallpox vaccine.[i] Since surface proteins of smallpox (using cowpox as live attenuated immunogen) are different from those decorating monkeypox, and as the non-replicating vaccine primarily induces antibodies (Abs), you could expose yourself to a real risk of ADEI.However, C-19 unvaccinated people don’t need a smallpox jab at all (and they don’t need an avian Flu vaccine either – in case the industry comes up with a pandemic flu vaccine!)  regardless of whether they got the smallpox vaccine in the past. Training of our innate immune system against Coronavirus (i.e., SC-2) during the C-19 pandemic will not only provide strong innate immune protection against influenza virus and poxviruses but also against other glycosylated viruses causing acute, self-limiting infection (e.g., RSV, other common cold CoV). I can explain this, but that would take somewhat longer. Upon exposure to smallpox or avian Flu, a C-19 unvaccinated person who is in good health and experienced mild or moderate C-19 symptoms as a result of previous natural infection (‘thanks’ to the C-19 pandemic) may still get some mild illness but that’s it! This will just induce additional antibodies to fully protect you next time around, pretty much like a live attenuated viral vaccine does. There is even a high likelihood that there won’t be a ‘vaccine take’ when you become vaccinated with live attenuated smallpox as your trained NK cells may kick out the vaccinal virus right away.  However innate immune training against CoV (e.g., SC-2) will not protect against measles, mumps, rubella or varicella (M, M, R, V).So, I simply continue recommending you to vaccinate your child against these childhood diseases before local outbreaks/ epidemics occur. It’s never a good idea, and could be dangerous for the child, to get the MMRV shot during a situation of high infectious pressure. Also, it is not recommended to vaccinate older children / adults/ elderly with these live attenuated vaccines if they’ve not been vaccinated against those diseases before. So, those who didn’t receive these childhood vaccines and did not acquire natural immunity as a result of previous natural infection are at risk of contracting the disease in case of an outbreak.  Unvaccinated elderly and vulnerable people (e.g., with co-morbidities) have a risk of contracting moderate to severe disease from Flu or RSV. The likelihood for developing severe disease increases when the innate immune system is weakened, especially in case of exposure to high infectious pressure (the latter could, for example, rapidly build up in areas of high population density such as nursing homes. I would, therefore, recommend removing your parent/ grand-parents from nursing homes ASAP.Live attenuated smallpox vaccine will not work in C-19 vaccinees because host cells that are infected with vaccinal virus will be readily recognized and killed by cytotoxic CD8 T cells that are continuously activated due to the enhanced susceptibility of vaccinees to re-infection.C-19 vaccination of children must stop immediately. Not only will the C-19 vaccines fully prevent innate antibodies from neutralizing the virus, but they will also irreversibly prevent the innate antibodies (in association with the virus) from educating the cell-based innate immune system (e.g., NK cells). Instead, the vaccinal antibodies will enhance viral infectiousness and enable the virus to blow straight through the innate immune defense, thereby causing severe C-19 disease. It will also prevent the child from educating its innate immune system (a corner stone of natural immunity!) to recognize several other (glycosylated) pathogens while discriminating those from self-antigens. This could lead to severe disease caused by several other (glycosylated) pathogens which the child has not been vaccinated against as well as to severe immune pathology! It will also no longer be possible to vaccinate children with other live attenuated childhood vaccines once they’ve gotten the Covid-19 shot for these vaccines could now cause severe disease.

So, the C-19 vaccine could be a death sentence for a young child!GVB

end

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

Drilling Under Lake Mead To Drain The Last Drop: 40 Million in U.S. West Without Water in 2023

July 22, 2022 4:33 pm

Dane Wigington of GeoengineeringWatch.org revealed earlier this month (July, 2022) that drilling going on under Lake Mead to supply water to Las Vegas could soon reach a point known as a “dead pool,” which would have a devastating impact on the lives of tens of millions of people in the U.S. Southwest. “Many are now aware of and justifiably concerned about Lake Mead soon becoming what is known as a ‘dead pool’. When this milestone is reached, the ramifications for tens of millions of Americans is beyond grave. What is not being discussed is the Lake Mead 3rd intake drain that was designed to drain every last drop from this diminishing and dying largest reservoir in the US. The remaining water will keep Las Vegas Nevada partying till the last possible moment. Even more dire is the official denial of the ongoing drought inducing covert climate engineering operations that are the core causal factor behind the unprecedented drought in the Western US. The six minute video below provides much needed information on the unfolding cataclysm surrounding the collapsing Colorado River water source.” Last week Dane Wigington was interviewed by Greg Hunter where he explained how these engineered droughts in the West will affect 40 million people next year. “There is no speculation, no hypothesis or conjecture in any of this. Climate engineering is the primary cause for the protracted drought, and not just in the U.S. but in many other parts of the world. It also causes a deluge scenario, and all of it is crushing crops. We can speculate to the motives and agendas behind those who run these operations, but the fact that climate engineering is the primary causal factor for the western drought is inarguable. This is a runaway train of total cataclysm, and those in power are preventing anyone from even discussing this issue down to the point that there is an illegal federal gag order on the nation’s weathermen at the National Weather Service and NOAA.” Last year I watched the documentary created by Dane Wigington, The Dimming, which conclusively shows how weather modification is being used by the military for warfare, and this has been happening for many years now. I am going to republish my review of “The Dimming” here, and provide the free YouTube version below that can be watched.

Read More…

END

Vaccine Impact


76,253 Dead 6,033,218 Injured Recorded in Europe and USA Following COVID Vaccines with 4,358 Fetal Deaths in U.S.July 23, 2022 3:53 pm

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) database of adverse drug reactions is now reporting 46,618 deaths and 4,682,268 injuries following COVID-19 vaccines. In the United States, the Vaccine Adverse Events Recording System (VAERS) is now reporting 29,635 deaths and 1,350,950 injuries following COVID-19 vaccines. There have now been more deaths and vaccine side effects reported during the past 20 months to VAERS following COVID-19 vaccines than there has been for the entire previous 30 years for all FDA-approved vaccines before the Emergency Use Authorization of the COVID-19 shots in December of 2020. (833,968 cases, 9,279 deaths.) The latest update in VAERS shows 4,358 fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines injected into pregnant and child-bearing aged women. This has to be the saddest, most criminal activity of Big Pharma and the FDA by allowing these COVID-19 shots to be injected into pregnant and young women. Pfizer had data showing how dangerous these shots were for pregnant women, but the FDA gave authorization anyway. Another 103 records of COVID-19 vaccine injuries were added to VAERS yesterday (July 22, 2022) for the 6-month to 4-years-old age group, continuing to show horrible side effects that include brain injuries, anaphylactic shock, dementia, depression, lupus, pancreatitis, colitis, Guillain-Barre syndrome, eye infections, encephalitis, seizures, meningitis, and all sorts of rashes, since these shots were approved for this age group a few weeks ago, in June.
Read More…

Missouri Sheriff, Backed up by Missouri Attorney General, Refuses To Hand Over Gun Owners’ Info FBIJuly 23, 2022 5:23 pm

A Missouri sheriff said he told the FBI that he won’t comply with audits regarding Missouri counties’ concealed carry permit information. Scotland County Sheriff Bryan Whitney said in public statements that his department won’t comply with the bureau’s audit. “As the sheriff of Scotland County, I want all my citizens to know that I will not allow, cooperate or release any CCW information to the FBI, even at the threat of a federal arrest,” Whitney, a Republican, wrote in a July 18 letter, referring to concealed carry weapons permits. “Point Blank, I will go down with the ship if need be.” Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, a Republican running for governor, issued a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray, telling the bureau chief to stop attempts to allegedly “illegally obtain information from local sheriffs on Missourians who have concealed carry permits.” “The FBI has absolutely no business poking around in the private information of those who have obtained a concealed carry permit in Missouri,” Schmitt wrote. “The Second Amendment rights of Missourians will absolutely not be infringed on my watch. I will use the full power of my Office to stop the FBI, which has become relentlessly politicized and has virtually no credibility, from illegally prying around in the personal information of Missouri gun owners.” Several weeks ago, the California Department of Justice leaked the private information of thousands of concealed carry permit holders in the state after it unveiled a new dashboard portal website, according to gun rights groups.
Read More…

Israel Caught Concealing Children’s Vaccine InjuriesJuly 24, 2022 5:22 pmIsrael’s Ministry of Health commissioned a study analyzing reports of adverse events from Pfizer’s COVID vaccine to Israel’s vaccine database, known as the Nahlieli system, between December 2021 and May 2022. The research team was headed by Professor Matti Berkowitz, director of the Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology Unit at Assaf Harofeh Hospital (Shamir).  Prof. Berkowitz’s team found that children in the 5-11-year age group had twice to four times as many adverse events following the Pfizer shot as children in the 12-17 age group. This doubling of vaccine injuries is, in itself, extremely disturbing — and should have been immediately brought to the attention of the nation’s parents.  The parents were not informed. What’s more, the Ministry officials recommended booster shots for youngsters aged 5-11—thereby increasing the risk for serious harm. It is unconscionable that the Israeli Health Ministry knew about the serious risks of harm posed to young children, concealed the evidence, and further expanded the ever-increasing risk for children by authorizing the use of these UNSAFE and medically unjustifiable genetically manipulated injections for infants and toddlers! The exposure of children to unjustifiable risks constitutes — as the late Dr. Vladimir Zelenko fearlessly categorized diabolical child sacrifice
.Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(MAREY)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

Panama is falling apart as its inflation upheaval causing huge food and fuel shortages

(zerohedge)

Panama’s Inflation Upheaval Causing Food, Fuel Shortages

SATURDAY, JUL 23, 2022 – 11:00 AM

It started as a teacher’s strike to protest the high cost of gas, but it’s now the largest civil unrest in Panama since the end of dictator Manuel Noriega’s reign in 1989. 

With fiery roadblocks disrupting commerce and causing shortages of food, fuel and other supplies, the Panamanian government has entered a new round of talks meant to placate the masses and avoid further economic damage, which some assess at $500 million and counting

President Laurentino Cortizo had already made two major moves to quell the unrest, only for it to continue.

On June 11, he widened subsidies to extend a freeze on gas prices to all consumers, capping the price at $3.95 a gallon, which was 24% lower than the end-of-June price. He also promised to pursue price caps on 10 basic goods, including pasta, beef loin, vegetable oil and canned sardines

With protestors demanding economy-wide price cuts and increased spending on education and health care, the demonstrations continued, not only in the form of marches and strikes but also roadblocks of major highways, including the internationally-critical Pan-American Highway. The Panama Canal has thus far escaped disruption; strikes by canal workers are illegal.

Last weekend, Cortizo announced a deal by which the government would reduce the price of gas again — this time, to $3.25. That price cut was offered in exchange for an assurance that the roadblocks would be cleared while discussions of price relief on medicines and other essentials continued.

However, on Monday, leaders of the National Alliance for the Rights of the Peoples (Anadepo), a protestor coalition representing labor unions, civic organizations and indigenous people, announced they were breaking their commitment, saying they had made the deal under pressure. Some groups said they weren’t represented in the negotiations.  

The Cortizo administration agreed to return to the negotiating table yesterday, with more talks mediated by the Catholic archbishop of Panama. Toribio García, a leader of a semi-autonomous region, said any gas price over $3.00 was “not negotiable.” 

Price inflation isn’t the only driver of the protests. As the Spanish international news agency EFE reports: 

The protesters also have focused much of their ire on graft, shouting slogans demanding an end to the “theft” of public money; for his part, acclaimed Panamanian singer-songwriter and activist Ruben Blades wrote in a communique that the problem is pervasive within a state apparatus that has “institutionalized corruption.”

In remarks to Efe, Jose Eugenio Stoute, a member of the organization Poder Ciudadano, echoed those sentiments, saying that entire families of lawmakers are benefiting from bloated public contracts and receiving exorbitant salaries.

At the same time he announced the first gas price reduction, President Cortino said public institutions would begin cutting payrolls by 10%, while instituting budget reductions and restrictions on foreign travel by government employees. 

That may not be enough to prevent the upheaval from turning into an all-out revolution against a government seen as living well on the backs of common people. Earlier, members of the ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party threw fuel on the fire when photos captured them drinking $340 bottles of Macallan whisky while celebrating the start of a new legislative session.  

This week, Panama City mayor José Luis Fábrega is under fire after he was photographed shopping in a pricey store in an exclusive part of Madrid, while unrest gripped his city. Earlier in the week, a journalist said he contacted the mayor’s office asking to confirm he was leaving the country. The staff told him, “It was the brother. It looks a lot like him.” Now, the mayor’s office says Fábrega is indeed in Spain — to see a doctor. 

With a currency pegged to the U.S. dollar and steady revenue from its vital canal, Panama has been a stable country for decades. Now, however, Panama is a canary in a coal mine, showing that much broader global unrest may soon be upon us. 

SRI LANKA

Fuel rationing via QR code

(zerohedge)

Sri Lanka Introduces Fuel Rationing Via QR Code

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Last week, the Minister of Power and Energy of the economic wasteland that is Sri Lanka,introduced “National Fuel Pass”, a fuel rationing scheme amid the raging economic crisis and shortage of fuel in the island country.

According to minister Kanchana Wijesekera, the new pass will guarantee the allocation of fuel quota on weekly basis. A QR code will be given for each National Identity Card number (NIC), once the vehicle identification number and other details are verified. As NDTV reports, people with registered vehicles will get their turns based on the last digit of their registration number. Tourists and foreigners will be given priority to take fuel in Colombo.

“Introduction to the National Fuel Pass will be held at 12.30 pm. A guaranteed weekly fuel quota will be allocated. 1 Vehicle per 1 NIC, QR code allocated once Vehicle Chassis number & details verified. 2 days of the week according to Last Digit of number plate for fueling with QR,” Wijesekara said in an earlier tweet.

The island nation – whose president recently fled the country in broad daylight to save his life – has been reeling under a major economic crisis that has created acute shortages of food, fuel, medical supplies, and left the country teetering on the edge of economic ruin, having entered discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over an emergency bailout.

The UN mission in Sri Lanka has urged senior politicians to ensure a peaceful transfer of power in line with the national Constitution, following weeks of protests that finally saw the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Thursday.

“The United Nations in Sri Lanka urges all stakeholders to ensure a peaceful transition of power in full respect for the Constitution,” said United Nations (UN) Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer, in a statement issued on Friday on behalf of the UN in Sri Lanka.

She said it was “imperative that the transition of power is accompanied by broad and inclusive consultation within and outside Parliament”.

This statement comes as Rajapaksa offered his resignation after fleeing the country and arriving in Singapore, having first flown to the Maldives on Wednesday after tens of thousands of protesters barged into his official residence in the capital Colombo earlier in the week.

These guys have their paws on politicians to no end:

Sri Lanka’s new President is a Member of the World Economic Forum – The Counter Signal

Inbox

Robert HryniakFri, Jul 22, 5:18 PM (15 hours ago)
to

No surprise …
https://thecountersignal.com/sri-lanka-president-is-a-member-of-the-world-economic-forum/

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0248 UP  0.0048 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 136.46   UP 0.657 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2064 UP   0.01078

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 19.59 POINTS UP  0.60%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.20 PTS OR 0.22% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.08%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.20 PTS OR  0.22% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.59 PTS UP 0.60% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.08% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 215.41 OR 0.77%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1728.10

silver:$18.66

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.21  DOWN 0.41  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.14%  DOWN 5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.2000% UP 0     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23%// DOWN 2   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.39  UP 25   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.025% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0218 UP  .0019    or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.70 UP 0.870  OR YEN DOWN 87  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2047  UP  0.0089 OR  89 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0057 OR 57 BASIS pts  to 1.2845

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7510  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7525

TURKISH LIRA:  17.83  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.198

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  2.809% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.037 UP 4 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.38 DOWN 24   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 29.09 PTS OR  0.40%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 59.17  POINTS OR 0.45%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16.04 PTS OR 0.26% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 36.20 OR 0.45%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 152.34 PTS OR  0.72%

WTI Oil price 96.41   12: EST

Brent Oil:  105.11  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  58.03  DOWN  AND 35/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.025

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0224 UP .0024     OR  24 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2050 UP .0093  or  93 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.67  UP 0.843//YEN DOWN 84 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2837 DOWN 0.0065 (CDN dollar UP 65  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96.77

Brent OIL:  105.08

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.810 UP 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.991  UP4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.82

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  58.11   DOWN   82/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 90.75 PTS OR 0.28 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 68.05 PTS OR 0.55%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.51 UP 0.48 PTS (2.08)%

GLD: 160.24 DOWN .43 PTS OR 0.27%

SLV/ 16.98 DOWN 16 CENTS OR 0.93%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Oil & Gas Jump; Bonds, Big-Tech, & Bitcoin Dump As Recession/Rebalance Looms

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 03:51 PM

More ugly US data from The Dallas Fed and Chicago Fed piled on dismal IFO data from Germany this morning added to the expectations for a recession (technical – don’t get us started arguing this semantic shit) to be unveiled this week just as The Fed hikes rates by 75bps once again and month-end rebalancing flows mess with trade plans.

US Futures had a good overnight session but heading into the US cash open, things started to go just a little bit turbo and then big-tech (long-duration) stocks were puked. There was an attempt to BTFD into the European close, but that evaporated and a late-day purge in crypto sent stocks back towards the lows of the day. Nasdaq (long-duration) was the worst performer but a late-day panic-bid put some lipstick on an otherwise pig-like market today…

There was no differentiation between defensive and cyclical stocks today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold today with the long-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Yield pushed back above 3.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal again, back below $22k…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dipped on the day but managed to hold above Friday’s lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar weakness, gold also lost ground today with selling in the ‘fix’ window…

Oil prices rallied notably overnight…

Additionally, as Bloomberg report, the gap between global oil benchmarks is hitting new extremes as traders weigh supplies in different regions of the world.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded at a discount of as much as $8.80 a barrel to the global benchmark Brent on Monday, the widest spread since Russia invaded Ukraine, excluding June 30 when Brent’s then front-month contract expired. Oil inventories in the US are relatively higher due to releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Brent markets continue to remain tight as Europe seeks to curb imports from Russia.

NatGas prices (US and Europe) ripped higher again as Russian flows stalled. US NatGas is at its highest in 6 weeks…

And on an ‘oil barrel equivalent’ basis, European NtGas is trading back above $300 (more than double the $147 equiv for US NatGas)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, for all those claiming that “you can’t have a recession with such a strong labor market”, perhaps it’s time to ignore the smoothed efficiency of the payrolls data ‘produced’ by the BLS and consider the multi-week trend in initial jobless claims…

Source: Bloomberg

While no ‘officials’ will dare to mention the ‘r’ word

Americans are not living the dream, no matter how much President Biden attempts to show that his efforts have saved the average car driver $35 per month (but actually cost them $423 since he was elected).

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Now its Weber’s turn to indicate the massive turndown in the uSA economy

(zerohedge)

It’s Not A Recession But… Weber Shares Go Down In Flames Amid “Historic Macro Challenges”

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 09:03 AM

Where there’s smoke… there’s macroeconomic fire!

Despite the Biden administration’s desperate efforts to gaslight America into believing “this is not the recession you’re looking for”, BBQ-maker Weber’s shares are in freefall in the pre-market after announcing a management reshuffle, suspending its dividend, and providing a dismal business update, withdrawing its FY 2022 Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Weber announced that Alan Matula, the Company’s current Chief Technology Officer, has been appointed interim Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Chris Scherzinger is departing from his roles on the management team and Board of Directors. A search for a permanent CEO will commence immediately.

“We are taking decisive action to better position Weber to navigate historic macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary and supply chain pressures that are impacting consumer confidence, spending patterns, and margins,” said Kelly Rainko, Non-Executive Chair of the Weber Board of Directors.

“The management team is well positioned to guide Weber through this transitional period and execute a transformation of the Company’s cost base.”

Weber reported preliminary Net Sales of $525M to $530M for Q3 (lower than consensus).

Net Sales performance was affected by slower retail traffic, both in-store and online, in all key markets, as well as continued foreign currency devaluations that impact our reported results.

Management believes that the slower retail traffic patterns are the result of pressured consumer shopping behaviors globally, due to rising inflation, supply chain constraints, fuel prices, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The Company expects these market headwinds to continue into the fiscal fourth quarter of 2022.

The Company now expects Adjusted EBITDA to be marginally profitable, which is materially lower than the internal budget related to the previously announced fiscal year 2022 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

The Company also expects to have a net loss in the period ending June 30, 2022. Profitability was negatively impacted by significant currency devaluations within the quarter, promotional activity to enhance retail sell through, lower margin country, and product mix, as well as substantial freight cost increases.

Weber further announced that it is pursuing a number of financial transformation initiatives, which may include workforce reductions, reducing other COGS and SG&A expenses, as well as tightening its global inventory levels and working capital positions. The Company will provide additional detail, as well as its final fiscal third quarter results, on its earnings call on August 15, 2022.

WEBR is down 25% in the pre-open, back near record lows since its IPO in August 2021 (and having traded above $20)…

This is ahead of peak grilling season!

None of this paints a rosy picture of the ‘strong’ consumer we keep being told is driving America forward?

end

Now the Dallas and Chicago Feds report that the economy is in shambles.  They describe a cliff like contraction

(zerohedge)

“The Economy Is In Shambles… November Can’t Get Here Fast Enough” – Dallas, Chicago Feds Signal Cliff-Like Contraction

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 01:30 PM

Another day, another set of disappointing data confirming the ‘r’ word is imminent. Both the Dallas Fed and Chicago Fed dropped some truth bombs in their surveys of local and national (respectively) economic activity.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Level of General Business Activity tumbled further in July, dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

New Orders and Inventories were the biggest driver of the further weakness, and CapEx fell for the 4th straight month, but it is the comments from survey respondents to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey that paint a truer picture than a single headline data point… (emphasis ours)

  • The concerns of a looming recession have increased over the last month. With supply-chain issues continuing, the cost of raw materials remaining high and significant interest rate hikes, overall business activity has to slow. It is just a matter of when—which I believe is soon.
  • The economy is in shambles. There’s no way out that isn’t bad.
  • The building and construction market customers we supply are seeing a slowdown in activity.
  • November can’t get here fast enough.
  • We are starting to see weakness in incoming orders. We are preparing for a further slowdown but hoping for the best.

Shifting from local pain to national pain, The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index signaled a second straight month of contraction in June (first time since early 2020). The smoothed index dropped into negative territory for the first time since May 2020.

The index utilizes 85 individual indicators covering four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. In June, 41 of the 85 made a positive contribution while 44 made negative contributions.

Source: Bloomberg

Production-related indicators weighed on the overall index in June. The personal consumption and housing category was also negative.

Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category, as well as the employment-related indicators, made a slight positive contribution.

Finally, we note that it could be worse… here’s Chinese Consumer Confidence…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is plunging even faster than Biden’s approval rating…

Source: Bloomberg

How soon after Thursday’s GDP release will Powell be thrown under the bus?

A Flood Of Repossessed Vehicles Poised To Hit The Used-Car Market

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 09:40 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Now is one of the worst times ever to buy a car. Wait six months or a year and things will be different.

Image from Wolf Street via Tweet thread below

Auto Loan Bubble About to Burst

A pair of excellent Tweet threads explain what is happening with car prices and pending repossessions.  

Worst Time to Buy in 30 Years 

  • There has never been a worst time in the last 30 years to buy a vehicle. Within the span of 2 years, cars went from being the largest depreciating asset one owned, to doing better than most of our stock portfolios, and I’ll explain exactly why.
  • To get a better understanding of the insanity which is the car market, lets start with a number that we’re all familiar with: 9.1% (CPI for June). New & used cars are a large portion of that. New vehicles rose 11% yoy and used cars 7.3%.
  • But percentages don’t do a good job at painting the whole picture so here are the raw numbers: 2 years ago: Average new car: 38k, Average used car: 20k. So what about 2022? Average new car: 50k (+24%)Average used car: 31k (+35%)[Used Car Image from Sully Below]
  • Not lookin so hot is it? We went from walking into a dealership, buying a brand new car with $5000 in incentives, to dealerships asking for 10k “market” adjustments on seemingly boring cars (Lookin at you RAV4 hybrid). The culprit?
  • Short supply combined with literally 0% rates caused many people to start buying any car that could “fit into their budget”. Why responsibly buy a 30k car, when you can finance a sick 100k truck at 84 months with 0% rate? I mean it’s free money after all. (this is a 7 year loan btw).
  • Dealerships saw this, and started to push higher and higher loan terms. Telling customers its “only 900$ a month”. The average loan term right now? 72 months — an increase of about 33% since 2010 (48 months).
  • But the era of 0% loans was last year, when the fed thought inflation was errrrr transitory (lol), so what’s going on now? Same thing… which makes it even worse. Car loan interest has gone up quite significantly, which means people are financing their car at insane APR.
  • Imagine paying 7-8% interest on a 7 year loan for a car, and that is the scary part. People are literally paying hundreds of dollars a month just in interest for their car.
  • And this is the ugly bit, when the car market starts to adjust. Normally most cars follow an inverse exponential curve, with the vast majority if the car losing its value in the first 1-3 years. That hasn’t been the case since 2020, and it seems like we’ve seemingly forgotten. [Depreciation Chart From Sully Below]
  • Eventually cars will once again, begin to depreciate like they always did. And guess what happens? Those who bought a USED vehicle at a 40% premium? They’re now significantly underwater on a car they financed for 7 YEARS.
  • Top it off with some good ol day-to-day inflation, layoffs, and potential recession and you get a recipe for disaster within the car market.
  • My bet is we’ll see a significant amount of repos and subsequent nuke of the car market. So pls unless you ABSOLUTELY need a car, try to avoid it for the next little while.
  • If you’ve made it this far, appreciate you reading this thread! Feel free to leave drop any questions you have. Also if you absolutely need to buy a car dm me! I’ll try to find something that’s reasonable in this market.

Used Car Prices and Depreciation

Images From Sully’s Tweet Thread Above

Auto Delinquencies Surging

Graham Stephan Tweet Thread

  • The auto industry collapse has just begun and this would be one of the worst times for you to buy a vehicle. In a normal market (pre-2020), Auto Loan delinquencies hovered at 2 to 3%. Today that number is exploding with nearly 1 in every 4 loans in default in Washington DC
  • The key issue that caused this is how Auto Loans are issued. Currently, Americans owe more than $1.2 Trillion on auto loans (the highest in US history and a 75% increase from 2009). Given the fact that more than 85% of cars are financed, we are looking at a massive problem. [Lead chart from Wolf Street via Graham Stephan]
  • I did some digging and found out that over the last 10 years, car dealerships have begun making more profits from the financing of cars rather than the car sales themselves. Translating from auto sale to loan sale business has resulted in a loosely regulated grey market.
  • This was possible because dealerships successfully lobbied to have less oversight – meaning that there is no federal oversight with auto loans unlike Mortgages, student loans, and credit cards. Reduced oversight allowed them to lend money without proper background checks.
  • An investigation in late 2021 found that up to 50% of the loans were given to customers who might not be able to afford them. The income and employment verification only happened 4 percent of the time. All of this means that more and more customers are starting to default.
  • The best-performing state is Utah with 4.5% of loans in default whereas other areas are much worse. California – 8.7%, Texas – 10%, Washington, DC – 23%. Once payment is more than 90 days late, the lender can repossess your car.

Used Car Price Crash is Coming 

A used car price crash is coming. 

And that will not bode well for the new car market either, especially with the Fed hiking like mad. 

Finally, think about this in terms of retail sales as well as new car manufacturing. 

Unleaded Gasoline Futures Declined 26 Percent, Has Inflation Peaked This Economic Cycle?

Yesterday, I asked Unleaded Gasoline Futures Declined 26 Percent, Has Inflation Peaked This Economic Cycle?

It’s safe to add used car prices to the list of price collapses.

*  *  *

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end

This will become very problematic as borrowers face billions in margin calls on swap positions

(zerohedge)

Borrowers Face Tens Of Billions In Margin Calls On Swap Positions As Rates Rise

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 11:20 AM

While most financial pundits have been keeping an eye on stocks or commodities as potential catalysts of market crisis, a far less exotic source of contagion has quietly emerged as rates have soared to levels not seen in over a decade: as IFR reports, this year’s steep rise in financing costs is causing a “once-in-a-generation cash crunch for borrowers in capital markets that have used derivatives to hedge their debt issuance“, forcing many to scramble to find additional funds to meet margin calls they face on swap positions.

Some background: most debt issuers, whether it’s banks, corporate treasurers or public sector borrowers, will swap the cashflows from their fixed-rate debt to floating interest rates. While that can lower their financing costs in the near term, it leaves them vulnerable to a liquidity squeeze if rates suddenly jerk higher. That is because many have agreed to post collateral – or variation margin – to their swaps dealers when the value of their positions moves against them. And, boy, have most swap positions moved against their issuers.

Not that one can really blame them: such unprecedented surges in rates have been a rarity during the past decade of rock-bottom interest rates. But the backdrop changed dramatically this year as central banks – having uniformly realized they are far behind the curve – have moved to tame sky-high inflation. The 10-year US dollar swap rate reached an 11-year high of 3.5% in mid-June, Refinitiv data show. It has since eased to about 2.8%, but has still more than doubled over the past 12 months. Other developed swap markets have notched similar rises.

Those moves would have triggered tens of billions of dollars in margin calls for companies that had swapped to floating rates at lower levels, forcing them to cast around for more cash at what remains a challenging time for many, especially when it comes to tapping primary debt markets. That has prompted an increase in demand for short-term funding such as commercial paper and repurchase agreements, bankers say, where volumes have surged this year.

“As rates go up, these issuers may have to post meaningful amounts of variation margin on their swaps to cover any mark-to-market moves on those positions,” said Bhaavit Agrawal, head of private placements for rates and currencies at Citigroup.

“Given rates in [US dollars and euros] have generally been in a downward trend over the last decade or so, this year is the first sustained episode in a while that issuers are facing liquidity outflows from the hedges of their debt issuance.”

“Issuers now need additional liquidity and they’re trying to find it from any source they can,” he added.

One banker who spoke to IFR, noted that a 200bps increase in the 10-year swap rate puts issuers that hedged fixed to floating about 20% out of the money on that position. That means they would have had to post around a fifth of their original borrowing amount as collateral. “That’s huge,” the banker said. How huge?

How huge? As IFR’s Chris Whital writes, quantifying the scale of the industry-wide margin call is difficult as derivatives deals are struck in private. But looking at debt issuance volumes from financial institutions, which are mostly subject to collateral agreements on their swaps, can give a rough idea.

Consider this: financial institutions issued $1.6trn of fixed-rate debt in the Americas alone last year, according to IFR data, at a time when 10-year swap rates averaged 1.4%. If just half that issuance was swapped back to floating – a conservative assumptions – a roughly 200bp increase in swap rates to this year’s peak would imply a jump of about US$160bn in variation margin calls for these firms.

Meanwhile, there have certainly been signs in short-term funding markets that liquidity demands have increased materially. Repo rates across many European Union markets traded more negatively earlier this year than at the start of 2021, according to CME Group’s BrokerTec fixed-income trading platform. That suggests collateral was scarce, particularly across certain specific bonds in core markets. Meanwhile, average daily volumes in European repo markets hit new records in May and June, peaking at €374bn in the week ending June 17 when swap rates reached their highs.

“Increased demand from banks’ swaps desks to fund additional margin requirements could have been a contributing factor to a significant increase in average daily repo volumes across May and June,” said John Edwards, global head of BrokerTec.

“That’s set against the longer-term backdrop where repo market activity has been growing considerably over the last three years or so, particularly in European markets. Demand for repo as a secured form of funding has continued to grow as dealers look to meet their financial and capital requirements with high-quality liquid assets.”

As IFR further notes, posting collateral against swaps exposure has become more prevalent in recent years as regulators have required a greater proportion of derivatives users to do so. The largest swap dealers held US$286BN of initial margin on uncleared derivatives transactions at the end of 2021, according to ISDA, more than double the level at the end of 2017.

Most financial firms must now post margin, while a growing number of public sector and corporate issuers have signed up voluntarily as well. Nearly 30% of the margin that the top dealers collected last year came from trades not subject to regulatory requirements.

Agreeing to post margin has advantages as well as potential downsides. Jens Hellerup, head of funding and investor relations at the Nordic Investment Bank, said signing a two-way agreement (where collateral can pass both ways between swaps counterparties) has been “positive for us” and helped the public sector borrower increase the size of its funding programme in recent years to between €6bn and €8bn.

“It gave us better pricing, but more importantly it ensured we always have good access to derivatives markets when we need it. Some banks were not happy to quote us when we only had a one-way agreement,” he said.

Hellerup said NIB stress tests its derivatives portfolio to ensure it always has enough liquidity to post collateral for the next 12 months. “If the market moves a lot we will need to re-do our stress tests and that may mean we have to do more funding, but that’s not a big issue for us as our funding programme is relatively small. Our funding costs are low, so it doesn’t cost us much to hold excess liquidity.”

Another prolific public sector borrower with two-way margin agreements has been the Swedish National Debt Office. It has had to post more collateral as a result of rising interest rates and some of its swaps moving out the money, Erik Akesson, FX and funding manager said. Luckily for the Swedes, that has “not had any significant impact on us,” he added, because its swaps book is “relatively limited in size and we only use cash as collateral”.

But there are signs elsewhere in markets that not everyone is finding things so comfortable. A senior trader said margin optimization and how best to manage margin volatility had become major talking points with clients as the rate moves have been so dramatic.

“Margin calls have gone up a lot,” the trader said. “It increases pressure on repo funding markets where people can raise cash for margin calls. We’ve seen that for a while with collateral scarcity in Europe.”

Bankers said many borrowers are looking at commercial paper markets to raise short-term funds to meet margin calls. Average annual US commercial paper issuance was US$122bn as of July 19, according to Federal Reserve data, up 24% from last year.

The cheapest thing to do is to borrow short-term commercial paper but of course that brings rollover risk,” said Citigroup’s Agrawal.

Those who think rates will be higher for longer may issue fixed-rate bonds provided they can access primary markets, while others might issue more floating-rate notes to adjust the interest rate sensitivity of their bond issuance. IFR data show FRNs accounted for 36% of Americas financial issuance in the first half of 2022, up from 28% last year.

“Different issuers have different approaches,” Agrawal said. As for swapped debt becoming a source of major crisis, if so far it hasn’t happened, now that rate are sliding fast with traders pricing in the next recession resulting in an extensively curve inversion, it may well be avoided unless of course, one of the counterparties is already insolvent and has been funding themselves day to day via the short-term funding market. In which case we would have another Archegos on our hands, only this time not in stocks but bonds.

A terrific commentary today from Paul Craig Roberts

a must read.

and special thanks to G for sending this to us:

Paul Craig Roberts Just Warned The US Is On The Precipice Of Economic And Social Collapse

July 22, 2022

Today former US Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts warned the US is now on the precipice of economic and social collapse.

The Looting Continues
July 22 (King World News) – 
Paul Craig Roberts:  The U.S. financial sector has long looted other countries. A number of participants have described the process.

First a country is enticed with bribes to the leaders to take out loans that cannot be serviced or repaid.  Then in comes the IMF. Austerity is imposed on the population. Public services and employment are cut to free resources for debt service, and public assets are sold to repay the loan. Living standards fall, and U.S. corporations take over the country’s economy.

As foreign governments, having experienced or witnessed the economic carnage and fearing accountability, are less willing to be bribed into indebting their countries, American finance is now applying this technique to Americans.

The Move To Concentrate Wealth
Contrary to the narrative in the financial press, the Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates in order to fight inflation.

It is ludicrous to think that a three-quarters of one percent rise in a very low interest rate is going to have any impact on a 9.1 percent rate of consumer inflation or that speculation that the Federal Reserve has in mind another three-quarters of one percent possibly followed by one half of one percent comprise an anti-inflation policy.

If all these increases occur, it still leaves the interest rate below the inflation rate.

Moreover, as I have previously explained, the inflation is not monetary. The higher prices are the result of supply disruptions caused by Washington’s COVID lockdowns and Russian sanctions. Production was stopped and supply chains are broken.  

The Federal Reserve’s rise in interest rates is just a continuation of its policy of concentrating income and wealth in the hands of the One Percent…

Quantitative Easing was the cloak for the Federal Reserve to print $8.2 trillion in new money which was directed or found its way into the prices of stocks and bonds, thus enriching the small number who own most of these financial instruments.

Having maxed out this avenue of wealth concentration, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates in order to drive up mortgage costs to aspiring homeowners. The Federal Reserve is driving individuals out of the housing market in order to free up properties for “private equity” firms to purchase homes for their rental values.

That private equity firms see rental income from the existing stock of houses as the best investment opportunity tells us that the U.S. economy has played out. When investment goes into existing assets, not into producing new assets, the economy ceases to grow.

The Obama regime’s policy of bailing out the financial fraudsters responsible for the 2008 crash while foreclosing on their victims, reduced American homeownership from 70 percent to 63 percent. The Urban Institute predicts further declines.

Homeowner Equity Has Declined From 85% To Just 33%
Today’s homeowners’ equity has declined—from 85 percent after World War II—to one-third, leaving two-thirds of homeowner equity in the hands of creditors. This makes it completely clear that a financialized economy indebts the people for the sake of rentier income to the One Percent.

The financialized economy created by the Federal Reserve has reimposed a class system akin to the landed British aristocracy that was overthrown.

Indeed, we have an economically far worse class system. The landed British aristocrats produced food that fed the nation. The American class system produces interest and fees for the financial system.

As Michael Hudson has shown us, a no-growth economy is the end result of a financialized economy. A financialized economy is one in which consumer income is diverted by debt expansion away from the purchase of new goods and services into debt service and fees—interest on mortgages, car loans, credit card debt, student loan debt.

With such a large share of household income spent on debt service, little is left for driving the economy forward.

The US Economy Is Total Fiction
If American economists were capable of escaping from their neoliberal junk economics, they would realize that “the world’s largest economy” they attribute to the United States is total fiction.

The fact is that the United States does not have an economy.  

Corporations driven by Wall Street located American manufacturing in Asia so that the One Percent could benefit from higher profits from lower labor costs, while the deserted city and states had to sell their income streams, such as Chicago’s parking meter revenues for 75 years, to foreigners for one lump sum payment to solve one year’s budget crisis.  

The offshoring of American production, carried out under the cloak of “globalism,” destroyed the American economy and the tax bases of cities and states.

While the real economy declines, the Democrat Party, seeking permanent power, has imposed a policy of open borders for immigrant-invaders.

How are these millions of peoples to support themselves in an economy whose manufacturing has been moved abroad?

The US Is On The Precipice Of Economic And Social Collapse
How can a population, deserted by American corporations, that is experiencing debt deflation absorb the costs of support and social infrastructure for tens of millions of third world immigrant-invaders?

You will never hear it from the whores in the financial press, but the United States is on the precipice of economic and social collapse. And what are the fools in Washington doing? The idiots are ginning up wars with Russia, China, and Iran.

Gijsbert Groenewegen

Silverarrowpartners

+1.646.247.1000 

end

State of emergency declared as wildfire emerges near Yosemite park, forcing thousands to flee

(zerohedge)

CA Governor Declares Emergency As Wildfire Near Yosemite Forces Thousands To Flee

SUNDAY, JUL 24, 2022 – 02:00 PM

California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) declared a state of emergency for Mariposa County on Saturday, as a fast-moving brush fire near Yosemite National Park has become the state’s largest this year, forcing thousands of residents to flee.

The fire, which started Friday near Midpines, has spread to at least 14,281 acres, destroyed 10 structures, and is 0% contained as of this writing. An estimated 2,000 more structures are at risk, according to CalFire.

Over 6,000 people living across a several-mile span in the sparsely populated rural area were ordered to evacuate, while more than 400 firefighters battle the blaze, using helicopters, other aircraft and bulldozers. They face hot weather, low humidity, and dry vegetation as the worst drought in decades hits the state.

“Explosive fire behavior is challenging firefighters,” CalFire said in a Saturday statement, describing the Oak Fire’s activity as “extreme with frequent runs, spot fires and group torching.”

“The fire is moving quickly. This fire was throwing embers out in front of itself for up to 2 miles yesterday,” said Daniel Patterson, a spokesman for the Sierra National Forest. “These are exceptional fire conditions.”

As the LA Times notes, the fire “marked an ominous start to the state’s peak wildfire season, with more dangerous blazes expected due to a combination of drought, climate change and overgrown vegetation that has increased the likelihood of fires igniting quickly and spreading rapidly.”

It came as much of the globe was in the grip of extreme heat, with record-breaking temperatures fueling fires across Europe and prompting alerts in large swaths of the United States and China.

“The troops out on the ground have got a really tough situation right now to deal with,” said Kim Zagaris, former state fire and rescue chief for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services who now works as advisor for the Western Fire Chiefs Assn.

“Mother Nature throws a lot at us,” she added. “Aviation resources and the wildland community are stretched even thinner in today’s day and age — and not just us, but all across the world.”

end

This should tell us the state of the USA economy right now: it is awful!

(zerohedge_

Walmart Plunges After Slashing Profit Outlook, Blames Fuel/Food Costs

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 04:30 PM

Just weeks before it is due to release its Q2 earnings on Aug 16, Walmart shocked markets after the close when it slashed its profit outlook for Q2 and FY2023.

The full statement indicates that the warnings we laid out about the pain from inventory liquidation and the “bullwhip effect” are finally here:

Walmart provided a business update today and revised its outlook for profit for the second-quarter and full-year, primarily due to pricing actions aimed to improve inventory levels at Walmart and Sam’s Club in the U.S. and mix of sales.

Comp sales for Walmart U.S., excluding fuel, are expected to be about 6% for the second quarter. This is higher than previously expected with a heavier mix of food and consumables, which is negatively affecting gross margin rate. Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of Q1.

This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel.

During the quarter, the company made progress reducing inventory, managing prices to reflect certain supply chain costs and inflation, and reducing storage costs associated with a backlog of shipping containers. Customers are choosing Walmart to save money during this inflationary period, and this is reflected in the company’s continued market share gains in grocery.

Walmart also stole the jam out of the ‘strong consumer’ donut by blaming the lack of consumer power and the imminent widespread (and deflationary) inventory liquidation on the soaring costs of food and fuel…

The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars. We’re now anticipating more pressure on general merchandise in the back half; however, we’re encouraged by the start we’re seeing on school supplies in Walmart U.S.” said Doug McMillon, Walmart Inc. president and chief executive officer.

As a result, Walmart said operating income will likely decline by between 13% to 14% over its fiscal second quarter, which ends in July, and between 11% and 14% for the full year. 

Worse, adjusted earnings are forecast to slide between 8% and 9% for the second quarter, and 11% to 13% for the year, a sharp decline from its May forecast of just a 1% pullback.

Finally, operating margins are likely to come in at 4.2% for the second quarter, before narrowing to between 3.8% and 3.9% for the full year, Walmart added.

Walmart, which saw a 33% increase in overall inventories last quarter (and which we discussed extensively in “Deflationary Tsunami On Deck: A “Tidal Wave” Of Discounts And Crashing Prices“), said in early May that it would keep prices “as low as we can” in order to shift inventories over the coming months.

Alas, It appears the inventory liquidation is not going well…

Here’s how it works – as we detailed previously – Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of Q1. This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel.  So the sequence is as follows:

  1. inflation is too high
  2. consumer is tapped out and has to limit their spend
  3. Walmart and other retailers over-inventoried
  4. They now have to liquidate inventories into a much weaker environment

And while this is great news for consumers who are about to see sharply lower prices as there is a lot of inventory to liquidate…

… it’s very bad news for WMT shareholders who are seeing their stock down around 7% after hours…

… And dragging the broad market lower:

Is this the beginning of the deflationary tsunami, and the unofficial start of the non-recession… because the White House would never lie to us, right?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1551668197224505344&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fwalmart-plunges-drags-down-market-after-slashing-profit-outlook-blames-fuel-costs&sessionId=144d4781daf00122fbbe127d02bc6fa6b75892c9&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

And while we wait to see how long before Walmart’s inventory liquidation turns into an employee liquidations, the only question is whether this will be seen as “bad news is good news” and will force the Fed to end its hiking cycle faster, because while clearly a major negative signal for the US consumer, it also suggests that a deflationary tidal wave is about to sweep general merchandise retailers who have no choice but to liquidate into a recession, and spread from there sending most prices sharply lower in the coming weeks.

SWAMP STORIES

Is The Clock Finally Running Out On Hunter Biden?

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 04:45 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in The Hill on the expiration of the grand jury in Delaware and reports that the Hunter Biden investigation is at a “critical stage.”  These lingering questions could have been avoided if Attorney General Merrick Garland had responded to new disclosures with the appointment of a special counsel. In 2021, emails and recordings from the laptop further fueled questions of whether President Joe Biden could have been a beneficiary of some of these dealings and how his early denials of knowledge appear demonstrably false. The failure to appoint a special counsel in this case is a textbook example of why such appointments are necessary to avoid such doubts about the scope or independence of an investigation.

Here is the column:

Astronaut Buzz Aldrin once said the secret to his success was “timing … I have been blessed to have been in the right place at the right time.” It is the same defining element of Hunter Biden’s life: No matter what crime or corruption is alleged, he has escaped responsibility, often by pure political serendipity.

Now, according to various media outlets, time may be running out for Hunter, with a federal investigation entering a “critical stage.” Yet, timing still could be on Hunter’s side.

Hunter has always had impeccable timing and, like Blanche DuBois, “always depended on the kindness of strangers.” He went to law school after his father became a powerful U.S. senator with a long line of influence-seekers eager to help him and his family. After graduating, Hunter was given a high-paying job with MBNA, the bank holding company, which supported key credit card legislation being pushed by his father in the Senate.

Later, Hunter was given a ridiculous appointment to the board of Amtrak and became its vice chair, despite an utter lack of credentials. His father, however, was a critical advocate for Amtrak in the Senate.

When his father became vice president, Hunter and an uncle allegedly cashed in on a long line of foreign entities seeking influence with his father. Millions of dollars were given to Hunter even though, as he has acknowledged, he was a crack addict and alcoholic at the time — “[d]rinking a quart of vodka a day by yourself in a room [which] is absolutely, completely debilitating” and “smoking crack around the clock.”

When Hunter’s debaucheries and dealings became public knowledge, thanks to a laptop he abandoned at a repair shop, the timing again was right for him. It happened just before the 2020 presidential election, and the media imposed a virtual blackout on coverage; 51 intelligence experts wrote a letter dismissing the laptop as likely “Russian disinformation.” U.S. Attorney David Weiss, probing Hunter’s dealings under an appointment by then-Attorney General William Barr, suspended his grand jury investigation for months to avoid accusations of influencing the election.

Now the grand jury’s expiration last month has forced a new timeline in the Hunter saga. The grand jury reportedly looked at a variety of possible criminal charges stemming from Hunter’s reported influence-peddling with dubious foreign figures from China, Russia, Ukraine and other countries.

While it is unclear if there were any indictments, some crimes seem undeniable on the basis of known evidence. For example, Biden seems clearly to have lied on the federal form to acquire a gun by denying his drug use; he also appears to have violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act. And there are obvious tax charges that could be brought, even though he paid outstanding taxes after the investigation began.

However, some of the most serious allegations of corruption concern alleged influence-peddling and acquiring millions from foreign figures. Not only were there reportedly more than 150 suspicious activity reports (SARs) filed, but those millions seemed to evaporate. His dealings reportedly involve an array of powerful figures, including his father, his uncle and the children of other well-known families.

Yet it is again a matter of “timing” and familiar concerns of “Election Year Sensitivities.”

A long-standing Justice Department policy instructs prosecutors to exercise caution in “the timing of charges or overt investigative steps near the time of a primary or general election.” Accordingly, some observers have objected that prosecutor Weiss should not issue an indictment against Hunter before the midterm elections, since that could hurt Democratic candidates. That could explain the failure to release any indictments after the disbanding of the grand jury.

But the use of this policy to seal or delay any indictments could raise equal concerns over the politicalization of prosecution.

The protected period under Justice’s policy has been stated variously as 60 or 90 days. This grand jury’s term expired outside of either period. Moreover, the policy does not bar filings during that period; it bars prosecutors from using “the timing of investigative steps or criminal charges for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.” It is the grand jury’s expiration, not any nefarious purpose, that is driving this schedule.

The most obvious problem with this argument is that neither President Biden nor his son are on any ballot in November. The policy is not supposed to be a political variation of the parlor game “Six Degrees of Separation From Kevin Bacon.” An indictment in Delaware would be three degrees from any Democratic candidate: (1) Hunter is the son of Joe Biden, (2) Joe Biden is president and a Democrat, and (3) there are candidates running as Democrats.

To use such a strained connection can itself be a political act. If the Justice Department can withhold prosecutions with even tangential political elements, it can shield political allies from having to address criminal allegations before the voters.

Of course, if there are sealed indictments, any delay would not stop an eventual prosecution. However, that timing still could benefit Hunter. He did not have to face a special counsel, who ordinarily would prepare a comprehensive report. There has long been an overwhelming basis for the appointment of a special counsel in this case, given direct references to President Biden as a prospective beneficiary of Hunter’s deals. By leaving this case with a U.S. Attorney, such a report is unlikely, and only limited information would be disclosed with any indictment.

More importantly, if an indictment is confined to narrow charges, not a broader conspiracy, Hunter could plead guilty to secure a more favorable sentence and avoid both a trial and the release of additional information. A plea could offer practical protection from future congressional hearings, too: It would close the case before Republicans could regain control of one or both houses of Congress, and the Justice Department could decline to bring further charges. Indeed, the expiration of the grand jury without a public indictment fueled concerns that the Biden Justice Department might cut a generous plea deal with the president’s son.

Conversely, if the U.S. Attorney were to present evidence to a new grand jury, it could take months and extend beyond the midterm elections. That would present a considerably higher risk for the Biden administration and for Hunter himself, because Weiss might put that additional time to good use.

Weiss does not appear to have called critical witnesses related to any alleged influence-peddling, including President Biden. Presidents can be called before grand juries or deposed by investigators in other cases; President Clinton, for example, famously was compelled to testify in a legal case during his term. If Weiss is going to investigate deals that discuss money going to “the big guy,” as Hunter allegedly referred to his father, then it would seem obvious that that would be the one guy who should be on any witness list.

It is unclear what, if anything, Weiss has uncovered about the Bidens — but, perhaps for the first time, time will tell.

King report

The King Report July 25, 2022 Issue 6807Independent View of the News
 China’s firms reported the worst quarterly provisional earnings since the first three months of 2020 as virus lockdowns hurt profitability, according to Morgan Stanley  https://t.co/QzxOIIe8H5
 
China Deploys Tanks After Top Bank Declares People’s Money ‘Investment Products’… and can’t be withdrawn… https://www.india.com/business/video-china-deploys-tanks-after-top-bank-declares-peoples-money-investment-products-5526988/
 
S&P Eurozone July Preliminary Manufacturing PMI 49.6, 51 expected, 52.1 prior; Services 50.6, 52 expected, 53 prior; Composite PMI 49.4, 51 expected, 52 prior (sub 50 + contraction)
 
@SPGlobalPMI: Eurozone output contracted for the first time since February 2021 in July, according to flash PMI data, with the headline index posting at 49.4 (June: 52.0). Excluding lockdowns, new orders fell at the quickest pace since May 2013. Read morehttp://ow.ly/isGu50K1SMX
 
@SPGlobalPMI: Latest flash data for the UK revealed another slowdown in growth with the PMI at a 17-month low of 52.8 (Jun: 53.7). Service providers registered activity growth while manufacturing production decreased in July (49.7 from 50.3). Read morehttp://ow.ly/YfOo50K1U19
 
UK consumer confidence falls to lowest level (-41 in June) since records began (1974)
https://www.ft.com/content/5c26babd-fa10-4ca7-a7fd-085b1f10a626
 
S&P July Preliminary US Manufacturing PMI 52.3, 52 expected, 52.7 prior; Services 47, 52.7 expected and prior; Composite PMI 47.5, 52.4 expected, 52.3 prior
 
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI
US private sector output contracts for the first time in over two years amid muted client demand
    Firms continued to highlight marked upticks in input costs.. and wage expenses rose further… business confidence among US companies slipped to the lowest since September 2020…Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis...  https://t.co/dPNKKx6vgN
 
@BBG’s JavierBlas: NORTH vs SOUTH 2.0: Spain, Greece and Portugal reject the EU call for 15% cuts in natural gas consumption to help Germany.  Spanish Energy Minister (clearly aiming at Berlin): “Contrary to other countries, Spain hasn’t been living beyond its means in energy terms”
 
Bonds soared shortly after Europe opened due to the recessionary S&P Eurozone Composite for July.  After a two-hour rally, bonds traded sideways until they soared on the recessionary and very ugly US Services PMI for July.  USUs hit a peak of 143 (+2 21/32) at 8:45 ET and then sank one point.
 
ESUs were down smartly from the Asian open (due to Snap) until a modest rally appeared after Europe open.  ESUs and stocks quickly retreated to the daily lows.  A plodding rally commenced after 4:00 ET.  The rally intensified for the NYSE open, of course.  ESUs and stocks spiked to daily highs at 9:48 ET.  They then tumbled until buyers retook control at 10:06 ET.  ESUs jumped 18 handles by 10:54 ET.  But then they tumbled 39 handles, to a daily low of 3967.25 at 11:37 ET on selling for the European close. 
 
The post-European close rebound was transitory.  By 12:11 ET, ESUs and stocks hit new lows.  Another minor dip put ESUs at a daily low of 3963.25 at 12:27 ET.  It was time for a belated Noon Balloon.  Alas, the Noon Balloon was also transitory.  ESUs and stocks hit new lows when the afternoon arrived.
 
The afternoon down leg ended near the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.  ESUs hit a low of 3941.50.  The late upward manipulation, via an A-B-C rally, appeared.  ESUs rallied 22 handles from the low.
 
There was an early conflict during US trading between those with recession angst and those with recession glee.  Just like in late March, Street pundits are shilling the notion that the Fed will cut rates in early 2023 – without regard to US inflation – because the US economy is ebbing.
 
Powell Seen Slowing Fed’s Hikes after 75 Basis Points Next WeekSurveyed economists see ab gig July increase, then a downshiftRate may peak at 3.75% in February, and then declinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/powell-seen-slowing-fed-s-hikes-after-75-basis-points-next-week
 
Danske Bank: After September, the ECB May Decide to Stop Raising Rates – BBG
(After September, the ECB may decide to hike rates – Us)
 
More American workers are taking on second jobs as inflation rages
Three-quarters of middle-income Americans say they don’t earn enough to pay for the cost of living…In June, 426,000 people were working two full-time positions, compared to 308,000 in February 2020, according to federal labor data… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-american-workers-are-taking-on-second-jobs/
 
These 3 Earnings Massacres Last Night (Thursday) Had 1 Thing in Common (very poor relative strengthCapital One Financial (COF)… Snap, Inc. (SNAP)… Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)…
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2022/07/these-3-earnings-massacres-las-2.html
 
Positive aspects of previous session
ESUs and stocks rallied on hype that the Fed will soon end its tightening cycle
 
Negative aspects of previous session
More data that shows recession is nigh for the US and Europe
Fangs tumbled on Snap
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is the Fang rally for Q2 results over?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3971.07
Previous session High/Low4012.44; 3938.86
 
COVID expert Deborah Birx says she ‘knew’ vaccines ‘were not going to protect against infection’
Former Trump adviser says U.S. “overplayed the vaccines.” (Huge news that the MSM will ignore)
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-expert-deborah-birx-says-she-knew-vaccines-were-not-going-protect
 
Are Birx’s recent confessions preemptive positioning for the coming GOP investigation (if they capture the House and/or Senate) on all things Covid?  Also, lawsuits against vax-mandating companies, agencies, entities, and schools are likely to mushroom.
 
Biden’s COVID symptoms have improved considerably, mainly has sore throat… http://reut.rs/3RXB3V9
 
@TPostMillennial: COVID Response Coordinator Ashish Jha: “[Biden] slept well last night, ate his breakfast and lunch … He actually showed me his plate!” (Just like a big boy! Not a parody!)
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1550573692807249921
 
GOP @RepKenBuck: If a 79-year-old man can get Covid and return to work days after, the dangers of the pandemic were grossly overstated.  Our public health establishment was either systematically deceptive or systematically wrong.
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie: Now that he has COVID and knows he is contagious even after 4 shots, Joe Biden has absolutely zero moral authority to force a needle into the military, federal employees, medical workers, and foreign visitors.
 
DeSantis aide @ChristinaPushaw: Why would they put him (an ailing & frail Biden) on video
https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1550570110347345921
 
@FreeBeacon: White House official says the economic briefing will continue but asks the press to leave. The reporters begin asking questions and the White House cuts off the feed
https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1550563954103050240
 
Yale med school professor: Biden ‘working while having COVID infection epitomizes white supremacy’  https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/yale-med-school-professor-biden-working-while-having-covid-infection
 
WHO Chief Overrules Panel to Declare Monkeypox Global Emergency
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/health-care/who-chief-overrules-panel-declares-monkeypox-global-emergency
 
Huge Monkeypox Study… 98% of those infected were gay or bisexual men…95% via sexual trans…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/huge-monkeypox-study-reveals-all-the-new-symptoms-of-latest-outbreak/ar-AAZRLuv
 
US records first two CHILD monkeypox cases: California toddler and an infant in D.C. were likely infected by ‘household contacts’ and both had contact with gay or bisexual men, CDC chief says
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11040679/Two-children-test-positive-monkeypox-CDC-confirms.html
 
Most of The Street believes that inflation will now quickly fall to a level that will induce the Fed to halt its tightening cycle and begin a new cycle of monetary promiscuity.  This is improbable historically!
 

 
CPI y/y (9.06%) vs Fed Funds Target Rate (1.75%) Real rates are at historically negative levels!  The dark horizontal line represents the Fed’s 2% CPI target. 
 
It took YEARS for CPI to recede to acceptable levels WITH Positive Real Fed Funds!  Real Funds were mostly positive from 1979 to 2002!  It took CPI 6 years to fall to 2% after the 1980 peak – with deeply positive real Fed Funds!  When the Burn’s Fed created negative real Fed Funds to halt the 1973-1974 recession, it took CPI 2 years to fall from 12.34% to 4.88%.  After 20 years of mostly positive real Fed Funds, the US experienced mostly negative real Fed Funds for 20 years. 
 
Current CPI of 9.06% would be equal or greater to the 1980 peak with 1980 BLS CPI methodology.  PS – We recently opined that if the Fed were to cut rates too soon, it would replicate G. William Miller’s misdeed in 1978 that created the awful 1978-79 CPI surge.
 
The political state of the world
Germany got tired of Merkel, so she bolted
Ineptness and scandal forced UK PM Boris Johnson to resign
Italy lost confidence in Draghi; so, he bolted
Putin is mired in a war that experts thought Russia would win in a few weeks
China is struggling economically; bank runs have infuriated the public
The palpably addled Biden; the risible, child-like Kamala Harris; and the odious Pelosi lead the US
Trudeau has become dictator of Canada
Macron of France is the one-eyed man in the Valley of the European Blind
Japan is still trying to inflate its way out of an historic demographic collapse
The Middle East is still the Middle East
 
@nytimes: Cannibalism has a time and a place. Some recent books, films and shows suggest that the time is now. Can you stomach it? (Are things this bad, NYT?  Not a parody!) https://nyti.ms/3PC7sPG
 
@zerohedge: “The Prime book was net bought for the 1st time in 4 weeks though flows were definitively risk-off with short covers outpacing long sales 2.3 to 1 – this week’s $ short covers were the largest since Dec ’21.” – Goldman Prime
 
45% of Small Biz Employers Stop Hiring & 4% Plan Layoffs
Only 26% of all SMBs tell us they’ve fully recovered to pre-COVID revenue levels, and 60% say their labor costs have increased. In fact, 18% say wages required by workers are now 25% higher than they were before COVID… 48% said they believe we are already in a recession, and another 32% predict it’s coming later this year…  https://www.alignable.com/forum/52-percent-of-small-biz-employers-say-they-cant-afford-to-hire-staff
 
Street economists see no recession, despite the rise in jobless claims, recessionary PMI surveys, and various small business (Account for ~67% of job growth past 25 yrs.) indicate recession is here or nigh.
https://advocacy.sba.gov/2022/04/26/small-business-facts-small-business-job-creation/
 
Top China Banks Start Lending Funds in $45 Billion Infrastructure Plan
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-07-23/top-china-banks-start-lending-funds-in-45-billion-infrastructure-plan-101916780.html
 
Today – This is Fed week and the end of July.  Planet Earth expects the Fed to hike the Fed Funds Rate by 75 bps on Wednesday.  4000 for the S&P 500 Index is still solid resistance.  Is the Fang carnage over?  Will the usual suspects pour back into Fangs because Google and MSFT report on Tuesday; Meta reports on Wednesday; Apple and Amazon report on Thursday.  Q2 GDP and Intel results appear on Thursday.
 
White House says a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP ‘unlikely’ to be indicative of recession https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/white-house-says-second-consecutive-quarter-negative-gdp-unlikely-indicative-recession
 
Obviously, this is a very, very dangerous and important week.  There could be irrational reactions and insane volatility.  Predictability is extremely low until more info appears.  Be alert & flexible! 
 
Expected earnings: WHR 5.24, NEM .65, UHS 2.32, PKG 2.85
Expected economic data: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity -22.0; Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.0
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3919; 100-day MA: 4137; 150-day MA: 4275; 200-day MA: 4355
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,584; 100-day MA: 32,8787 150-day MA: 33,610; 200-day MA: 34,083
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4813.43 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4113.15 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3861.24 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3990.34 triggers a buy signal
 
Why is Russia so vulnerable to HIMARS in Ukraine?
U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS… their combat record is already extensive… Ukraine… has destroyed dozens of significant fuel and munition depots in occupied parts of Ukraine, jeopardizing Russian logistics, vital supplies, and artillery power… HIMARS are also directly challenging Russia’s air defenses, wiping out expensive advanced radars far behind the front lines.
    Contrary to its propagandistic bravado, the Russian military has appeared helpless — or at least very vulnerable — to the dozen or so U.S.-provided HIMARS striking the very essence of Russia’s military advantage over Ukraine, becoming an important factor in the war…
https://kyivindependent.com/national/why-is-russia-so-vulnerable-to-himars-in-ukraine
 
CNN Exclusive: FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications https://t.co/eZhteyTt5j
 
WaPo opinion piece calls for Biden to not run for reelection to save Democrats: ‘Quit, Joe, Quit!’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/wapo-opinion-piece-calls-biden-not-run-reelection-save-democrats-quit-joe-quit
 
@RNCResearch: KAMALA HARRIS: “…Women are getting pregnant every day in America, and this is a real issue…” (You cannot make this up!)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1551234994911182848
 
Liz Cheney says Jan. 6 panel could subpoena wife of Justice Thomas https://t.co/ZZMiLG9A0Y
Ginni Thomas sent text messages to then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows days after the 2020 presidential election urging him to fight to reverse former President Donald Trump’s loss, according to reports… (What’s the crime?  Dems have challenged every prez election they’ve lost since 1988!)
 
Trump gave order to ‘make sure’ Jan. 6 rally was ‘safe event,’ Pentagon memo shows
Gen. Milley’s recollection undercuts months-long effort by Democrats to suggest Trump wanted to incite violence…  https://justthenews.com/government/congress/trump-gave-explicit-order-about-jan-6-rally-make-sure-it-was-safe-event-dod
 
Jon Turley: As if to fulfill that show trial portrayal, Cheney ended the hearing this week by… noting that Trump family members and former officials have now come forward with their own public “confessions.”… the summation included a direct call by Cheney for voters to oppose Donald Trump in the coming election… It is the type of pitch that is as unnecessary as it is counterproductive.  Many voters tuned out the hearings weeks ago due to the absence of any balance in the presentation of evidence. To add direct political pitches only reduces the audience further. The result is that it is left telling largely Democratically aligned voters not to vote for Trump
    What was particularly bizarre was Cheney’s effort to dismiss the need for any opposing views in the hearings. In one of the most counterintuitive and forced claims, Cheney said that such balance would not have made a difference…By yielding to the temptation to exclude any opposing voices or views, the Committee seems intent on fulfilling the stereotype of the hearings as a show trial…
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/07/22/true-confessions-liz-cheney-said-trump-family-and-aides-have-now-publicly-confessed/
 
@julie_kelly2: Mueller was coverup for Russiagate.  Impeachment one was coverup for Biden crime family.  J6 committee is coverup for inside job that was January 6.
 
Democrats Cede ‘Party of Education’ Label to GOP: Poll… a historic reversal…
Polling released by the Democrats for Education Reform… found that 43% of likely voters said they trust Democrats on issues of education compared to 47% who said they trust Republicans The trust gap widens among parents, with Democrats trailing by 9 percentage points, and among voters of color, with Democrats trailing Republicans by 10 percentage points
https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2022-07-20/democrats-cede-party-of-education-label-to-gop-poll
 
The Establishment has ordained these emergencies: Monkeypox, Covid, Climate Change, Russia-Ukraine, DJT, abortion, and guns.  Americans see inflation, the economy, and crime as the top issues.
 
Trump planning to fire thousands of federal bureaucrats if re-elected in 2024 https://t.co/8zo5DZFAo2
 
Trump incessantly asserted that he would ‘drain The Swamp’ during the 2016 Campaign.  But he hired and embraced The Swamp when elected.  Why should DJT be trusted to honor the same pledge?
 
Knife-wielding assailant tries to stab NY gubernatorial candidate Zeldin at Rochester… rally – A man approached behind Zeldin and told the GOP hopeful: ‘Okay, you’re done’  https://t.co/qdomksMiBl
 
Fox’s @ChadPergram: Zeldin campaign on release of David Jakubonis after arrest trying to stab the candidate. Zeldin spox says it’s “terrible public policy that in the State of New York, you can try to stab a sitting Member of Congress, and be back out on the street not even 6 hours later
 
@JoeBorelliNYC: New York’s bail law allows you to attack a political candidate with a knife and be released on your own recognizance within hours? Maybe there should be a carve out for would-be assassins.  (Yet people, including a grandma with cancer, go to prison for taking selfies in the Capitol!)
 
NY Gov. @KathyHochul, Jun 29, 2022: Meet Lee Zeldin, the far-right extremist that the Republicans just nominated for governor. Despite what he might try to sell you, the facts speak for themselves: he is dangerous for New York. https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1542236371477307392
 
Kathy Hochul campaign sent email about upcoming Lee Zeldin events before attempted attack
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kathy-hochul-campaign-alerted-supporters-lee-zeldin-events-before-attempted-attack
 
Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: A man tried to assassinate @RepLeeZeldin with a knife. Thankfully, Lee is safe, but his attacker is already released back on the streets.  Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies are outrageous, but since Lee is a Republican, the media will largely ignore the attack.
 
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: We’ve now had the Left trying to kill a Supreme Court Justice and a Governor candidate. Both conservatives. And the left media is largely silent.
 
Lee Zeldin attack: CBS hammered for report framing attempted stabbing as incident he ‘said’ happened  https://www.foxnews.com/media/lee-zeldin-attack-cbs-hammered-report-framing-attempted-stabbing-incident-said-happened
 
Pedestrian hit by car and then robbed while struggling to survive on NYC street https://trib.al/uYhCKDN
 
Pennsylvania Dad Facing Prison Time for Entering Capitol on Jan. 6 Dies by Suicide
Facing up to six months in prison… He had pleaded guilty last month to a single charge of demonstrating or parading in a restricted building… and endure a humiliating rant by Judge Reggie Walton “He entered the Capitol through a previously opened door (he did not break in as was reported)… https://www.dailywire.com/news/pennsylvania-dad-facing-prison-time-for-entering-capitol-on-jan-6-dies-by-suicide
 
Lee Zeldin attack suspect arrested on federal assault charge (Cuz national Dems were embarrassed)
David Jakubonis was arrested Saturday afternoon, US Attorney’s Office announces
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lee-zeldin-attack-suspect-hit-federal-assault-charge
 
@RNCResearch: KAMALA HARRIS: “You fight it in the courts, but you also gotta fight it in the streets, which is about organizing the people (to do what?).” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1550531402713759745
 
@LizWillis_: The only way to stop this extremism and get radical politics out of corporate boardrooms and H.R. departments is if we do to the Left EXACTLY what the Left does to us.” -DJT
 
Dershowitz on Bannon conviction: Very likely conviction is overturned on appeal.  97% of jury was Trump hatersJudge did not allow defensive to present its evidence.  https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1550829871177383939
 
Ted Cruz at @TPUSA’s SAS2022: “I’m Ted Cruz, and my pronoun is… kiss my ass!” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1550819932031549441
 
DeSantis barring many media outlets from big election-year gathering – DeSantis spokeswoman Christina Pushaw tweeted Friday that “It has come to my attention that some liberal media activists are mad because they aren’t allowed into #SunshineSummit this weekend.  My message to them is to try crying about it… And write the same hit piece you were gonna write anyway.”… https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/21/donald-trump-ron-desantis-speak-florida-republicans-not-open-media/10122197002/
 
@GovRonDeSantis: Fentanyl overdose is the number one cause of death in Americans ages 18-45.  Our legislation has increased the mandatory minimum sentence for the sale and distribution of fentanyl to combat the flow of this dangerous drug.  https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1550873375869919237
 
DeSantis: “New York has 3 million fewer people than we doand their budget is twice the size of our budget. And yet we have better roads, better services, higher-performing K-12 schools”
https://elamerican.com/desantis-florida-is-showing-how-to-run-a-government/
 
@tedcruz: One of the consequences of COVID is that it impairs your ability to smell.  So you know… hair sniffing in the White House has gone way down https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1551339265547767809
 
AOC and Ilhan Omar coordinated Supreme Court arrest stunt with Soros-funded dark money group  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/aoc-ilhan-omar-supreme-court-arrest-staged-soros-group
 
House Intelligence Committee member warns DNA testing could lead to targeted bioweapons
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/house-intelligence-committee-member-warns-dna-testing-could-lead-bioweapon
 
Former Attorney General Bill Barr… the federal government needs to begin treating Mexican cartels “more like ISIS and less like the mafia.” https://t.co/5kVoaSBAfr
 
‘Gays Against Groomers’ Organizes to Join Parents in the Fight Against Sexual Grooming in Schools   https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/07/23/gays-against-groomers-organizes-to-join-parents-in-the-fight-against-sexual-grooming-in-schools-n1615369
 
Enes Kanter Freedom says NBA ‘run by the Chinese dictatorship’ after exclusive recordings surface – the league was trying to tamp down on former Houston Rockets center Enes Kanter Freedom’s criticism of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, to stay in Beijing’s good graces… https://t.co/XrW2WlOcHr
 
@charliekirk11: Let me get this straight. The US Gov’t will let millions of unvaccinated illegals stream across the border and buy them plane tickets to anywhere they want to go, but they won’t let the world’s best tennis player come to New York and compete in the US Open? This is a disgrace.
 
How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines at the Behest of the Deep State
How the Pentagon’s top-brass generals burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers all while losing the wars they were supposed to be winning By Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret)
     My new book, A Few Bad Men, details the mendacity and mad dishonesty of retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis…. The most legendary Marine of all time, Lieutenant General John A. Lejeune, the 13th commandant of the Marine Corps, laid out clearly how to effectively nurture and lead Marines: “Make every effort by means of historical, educational, and patriotic addresses to cultivate in their hearts a deep abiding love of the Corps and Country” and “the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust.”…
     Mattis unleashed an unprecedented 45 criminal investigators and four prosecuting attorneys against the seven Marines falsely accused by the Taliban of mass murder (DJT hired Mattis to be Def Sec!)
    He came under the influence of Elizabeth Holmes, founder and CEO of Theranos… Theranos’ technology would not only be denied FDA approval, but it was proven to be a fraud
    He used his position as secretary of defense to bottle up the Freedom of Information Act requests to get our testimony in that March 4, 2007 ambush exposed. Our shocking testimonies have now been released and tell a terrible story of betrayal by a Marine against other Marines…
https://publiusnationalpost.substack.com/p/how-mattis-betrayed-his-fellow-marines
 
Al Gore has jumped back into the spotlight.  Here’s a Gorey story (2010) that most of the MSM spiked:
Two More Massage Therapists Accuse Al Gore of Sexual Assault
https://www.businessinsider.com/two-more-women-accuse-al-gore-of-assault-2010-7
 
The most essential gift for a good writer is a built-in, shockproof, s#*t detector. This is the writer’s radar and all great writers have had it. A writer without a sense of justice and of injustice would be better off editing the yearbook of a school for exceptional children than writing novels.” – Ernest Hemmingway

 

Greg Hunter:Interviewing Steve Kirsch

CV19 Vax Lies – Greatest Trust Destroyer in Human History – Steve Kirsch

By Greg Hunter On July 23, 2022 In Political Analysis194 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Steve Kirsch was a Big Tech CEO who retired from his job after he was double vaxed for Covid 19.  Not long after, he learned the entire injection and Covid narrative did not match the science or the facts.  The vaccines, for example, were not safe and effective as he was led to believe.  Healthy people he knew were dropping dead after they were vaxed.  So, Kirsch who holds two degrees from MIT, started a quest to learn everything about CV19 and the so-called vaccines used to treat it.  In the process, he became a warrior for truth and posted his cutting-edge journalism and analysis that exposed huge Covid19 lies on his wildly popular Substack.com site.  Kirsch explains, “I actually look at the science to see if that backs up what the recommendations are, and every time, I am surprised to find out the actual science doesn’t match what we are being told.  This is true for the vaccines, this is true for the masks, and for basically any of the interventions we have been told about.  The ‘six feet rule,’ even something as simple as that, you can’t find a paper that says it’s 6 feet as opposed to 7 feet, or 5 feet or whatever.  It’s much more complicated than that.”

Kirsch says, “Whenever I have an audience, I ask people, ‘How many people in your household died from Covid?’  There will be one hand or two hands.  Then I ask, ‘How many people do you know died from the Covid vaccine?’  The last time I asked that question, it was a 7 to 1 ratio.  7 times more people reported a death from the vaccines.  If they are wrong even by a factor of 10 . . . it is still a disaster beyond proportion. . . . I saw a tweet from a doctor saying how much longer are we going to pretend that these (vax death) incidents are just bad luck?  He is basically saying we know the vaccine is causing this, but we can’t speak out because we will be fired and have our hospital privileges revoked.  We will have our licenses to practice medicine revoked.  This is why you are not seeing doctors who realize this speaking out.  They all have to remain silent.”

Kirsch goes on to say, “This is the biggest catastrophe in American history.  Even a member of the EU parliament recently said this.  She said these vaccines are the biggest disaster ever.”

The massive amount of victims of this vaccine fraud are waking up to the fact they have been poisoned and murdered.   Kirsch says, “They are not going to be happy.  I don’t want to predict what they are going to do, but a lot of people are going to be extremely upset.  I think at minimum, they will not trust anything from the CDC, FDA and NIH ever again.  That’s at a minimum, and they won’t trust the mainstream media either.  They won’t trust representations from Congress because most of the people in Congress are saying get your vaccine.  This will destroy trust in the mainstream media, Congress, in the mainstream medical community, in government agencies and medical science in general.  It will be the greatest trust destroyer in human history, these Covid vaccines.  This is not just in the U.S., this is worldwide.  When people figure out that they were told by their government to take a shot that was way more likely to kill them than to save them, people are going to be livid.  It won’t just be a few people that will be livid, it will be a lot of people.”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 10-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter from USAWatchdog.com as he goes One on One with CV19 truth warrior Steve Kirsch.

(https://usawatchdog.com/cv19-vax-lies-greatest-trust-destroyer-in-human-history-steve-kirsch/)

See you TOMORROW

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