JULY 26/GOLD CLOSED DOWN BY ONLY $1.60 TO $1719.45 ON COMEX EXPIRY//SILVER CLOSED UP BY 16 CENTS TO $18.63//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $4.40 TO $879.90 AND PALLADIUM WAS UP $5.00 TO $2015.50//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//UPDATES ON GAZPROM SHUTDOWNS: EUROPE WILL REDUCE DEMAND BY 15% TO TRY AND SAVE THEMSELVES THIS WINTER/THOMAS FAZI AN EXCELLENT READ ON ITALY//UK POWER COSTS INCREASE BY 5,000% DUE TO RUSSIAN GAS SHUTDOWN//CANADA SET TO IMPLEMENT FERTILIZER BAN SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN HOLLAND AND SRI LANKA//TOM LUONGO AND DAVID STOCKMAN: GOOD READS!//IN USA TODAY POOR RESULTS FROM SHOPIFY, MCDONALDS AND WALMART//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1719.45 DOWN $1.60 

SILVER: $18.63 UP 16 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1717.40

SILVER: $18.63

We are now entering options expiry for Comex (tomorrow) and OTC/LBMA (Friday)

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,097 DOWN 508

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,605. DOWN 1469  

Platinum price: closing DOWN $4.40 to $879.90

Palladium price; closing UP $5.00  at $2015.50

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,719.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/25/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/27/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 13 41
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 21
905 C ADM 6


TOTAL: 41 41
MONTH TO DATE: 9,605

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  41/41 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY CONTRACT:  41 NOTICES FOR 4100 OZ //0.1275 TONNES

total notices so far: 9605 contracts for 960,500 oz (29.875 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

383 NOTICES FILED FOR 1,915,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  3974 :  for 19.870,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 16 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 495.597 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A HUGE SIZED 2114  CONTRACTS TO 149,220   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.24 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.24) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 2707 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,735,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -16

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 17 days, total 15,697  contracts:  78.485 million oz  OR 4.616 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (923 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 78.485 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 78.485 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2114 DESPITE OUR  $0.24 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 577 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 1,735,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 2707 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 13.535 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 41  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  1,915,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A  VERY STRONG SIZED 6664 CONTRACTS  TO 491,736 AND further from THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: 973 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $7.85//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITION ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6100 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $7.85 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 168  OI CONTRACTS 0.5132 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6496  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 502,738

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 168 CONTRACTS  WITH 6661 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6496 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 168 CONTRACTS OR 0.5132 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6496) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6661): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  165 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS/ //.,4)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

108,575 CONTRACTS OR 10,857,500 OZ OR 337.71  TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6386 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 337.71 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  337.71/3550 x 100% TONNES  8.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 337.71 TONNES (HUGE INCREASE FROM JUNE//WILL CLOSE IN ON THE RECORD EFP ISSUANCE IN MARCH 22//SURPASSED PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH NOV 21) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2114 CONTRACT OI TO 149,220 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 577 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 577  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 577 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2114  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 577 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 2691   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.455 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.24

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.05 PTS OR 0.83%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.94 OR 1,07%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 44.04 OR % 0.16.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.27%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7607//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7653//    /Oil UP TO 98.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 106.71// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.05 PTS OR 0.83%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.94 OR 1.07%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 44.04 OR % 0.16.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.27%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6661 CONTRACTS TO 502,738 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $7.85  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (6496 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6496 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :6496 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6496 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 165  CONTRACTS IN THAT 6496 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 6661  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR GOOD SIZED  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 7.85. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (29.987),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $7.85) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 0.5132 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (29.987 TONNES)

WE HAD -973  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 165 CONTRACTS OR  16,500  OZ OR 0.5132 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 228,118/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  245,115 / fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 26

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz158,808.967oz
Brinks
HSBC
Manfra
938 kilobars

Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz50,762.574 oz
Brinks 
No of oz served (contracts) today41  notice(s)
4100 OZ
0,1275 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)36 contracts 
3600 oz
0.1119 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9605 notices
960,500 OZ
29.875 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1 

i) Into Brinks:  50,762.574 oz 

total deposits: 50,762.574 oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks  72,406.490 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 30,157.638 oz (938 kilobars)

iii)Out of Manfra: 50,762.574 oz

total withdrawals: 158,808.967 oz  (4.93 tonnes)

ADJUSTMENTS:2 dealer to customer

 Brinks:  13,792.226

JPMorgan: 33,105.985  oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 77 contracts having GAINED  15 contracts . We had

45 notices filed on Monday so we GAINED a strong 61  contracts or an additional 6100 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 36,066 contracts down to 120,643 contracts. We have 3 more reading days before first day notice. Looks like we will have a strong August standing for gold (JULY 29/22..FIRST DAY NOTICE)

Sept. gained161 contracts to 3134 contracts.

We had 41 notice(s) filed today for  4100 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  13 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 41 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  45 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9605) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 77  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 41 x 100 oz per contract equals 964,100 OZ  OR 29.987 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9605) x 100 oz+   (77)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (45} x 100 oz} which equals 958,100 oz standing OR 29.987 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  29.987 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  31,012,965.398 OZ 

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,451,836.344  OZ (48,06 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,561,129.054 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,008,303.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 404.6 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 26

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory3,330,259.329  oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Brinks
Loomis
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)383 CONTRACT(S)
19,870,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)11 contracts 
(55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3974 contracts
 19,870,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.149 million oz/337.508 million =51.88% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:6

i) Out of Brinks:  602,026.800 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 400,433.879 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 999.760 oz

iv) Out of jPMorgan 717,682.900 0z

v) Out of Loomis:  1,108,606.990 oz

vi) Out of Manfra: 500,508.900 oz

 adjustments: 1 customer to dealer//HSBC: 53,289.990 oz

2. removal of 306,543.000 oz from JPMorgan eligible

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 59.686 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.508 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 394 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 161 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 186 NOTICES FILED

ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 347 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  1,735,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 22 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 936

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 810 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,330

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 186 for  230,000 oz

Comex volumes:42,939// est. volume today//  poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 46,521 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3974 x 5,000 oz = 19,870,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(394) and the number of notices served upon today 383  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 3974 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (394)  – number of notices served upon today (383) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 19,925,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.29 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 495.597 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Federal Data Show JPMorgan Chase Is, By Far, the Riskiest Bank in the U.S.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 26, 2022

The long-tenured Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, likes to use the phrase “fortress balance sheet,” when talking about his bank to Congress or shareholders. But the data stored at its federal regulators show that the bank is, by far, the most systemically dangerous bank in the United States. And, despite its high risk profile, neither Congress nor federal regulators have restricted its growth. Its assets have soared by 65 percent since the end of 2016 and stood at $3.95 trillion as of March 31, making it the largest bank in the United States.

Making this situation even more dangerous, the bank has admitted to five criminal felony counts over the past eight years and a multitude of civil crimes and multi-billion dollar fines — all during the tenure of Dimon. Neither Congress nor federal regulators nor the Justice Department that brought those felony counts has demanded that Dimon be replaced. The Board of Directors of the bank has been equally obsequious toward Dimon, awarding him a $50 million bonus after the bank admitted to its fourth and fifth felony counts for “tens of thousands” of trades that rigged the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets.

Our data comes from the National Information Center, a repository of bank data collected by the Federal Reserve. It is part of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), which was created by federal legislation to create uniformity in the examination of U.S. financial institutions by the various banking regulators.

Each year the National Information Center creates a graphic profile of banks measured by 12 systemic risk indicators. The data used to create these graphics come from the “Systemic Risk Report” or form FR Y-15 that banks are required to file with the Federal Reserve. To measure the systemic risk that a particular bank poses to the stability of the U.S. financial system, the data is broken down into five categories of system risk: size, interconnectedness, substitutability, complexity, and cross-jurisdictional activity. Those measurements consist of 12 pieces of financial information that banks have to provide on their Y-15 forms.

The most recent data is for the period ending December 31, 2020. It indicates that in 8 out of 12 measurements – or two-thirds of all systemic risk measurements – JPMorgan Chase ranks at the top for having the riskiest footprint among its peer banks.

One of the 12 financial metrics is based on the Intra- Financial System Liabilities of each bank. This shows how much money a particular bank has at risk at other banks by using inputs such as how much of its funds it has on deposit with, or has been lent to, other financial institutions; the unused portion of any credit lines it has committed to other financial institutions; and its holdings of debt, equity, commercial paper, etc. of other financial institutions. The idea is to understand the interconnectivity of systemically- risky megabanks and whether one distressed megabank could cause a daisy-chain of contagion with other megabanks — such as the contagion caused by Citigroup and Lehman Brothers in 2008.

JPMorgan Chase’s footprint for Intra-Financial System Liabilities is huge. The 2020 data show that JPMorgan Chase has $577 billion exposure in that category. That’s an increase of $182 billion over what it showed in that category in 2019 – a startling increase of 46 percent in one year

Equally unnerving, JPMorgan Chase ranks number one in the instruments that played a major role in blowing up Wall Street in 2008 – OTC (Over-the-Counter) derivatives. These are private contracts between two parties and lack the transparency or protections of being traded on an exchange. This means if the counterparty defaults and the exposure is large enough, it could put a federally-insured bank at risk. This is not a hypothetical scenario. The giant insurer, AIG, blew itself up in 2008 because it was holding tens of billions of dollars in OTC derivative contracts for the biggest banks on Wall Street, on which it could not pay its obligations. The U.S. government was forced to nationalize AIG and paid more than $90 billion to the banks for their AIG derivative contracts and securities lending obligations. According to the data, JPMorgan Chase has the largest exposure to OTC derivatives, with $44.38 trillion exposure.

The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 was hyped as ending the hubris of OTC derivatives. It was supposed to force these vehicles into the sunlight of exchanges and central clearinghouses. But that hasn’t happened. Corporate business media is simply declining to report on it. According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the federal regulator of national banks, as of March 31, 2022, only “43.4 percent of banks’ derivative holdings were centrally cleared.” (See page 13 at this link.) That statistic comes 12 years after Dodd-Frank was signed into law, showing just how lax federal regulators have been in enforcing the congressional intent of the law.

Adding to the systemic dangers of JPMorgan, it is a pivotal cog in the U.S. payments system. The bank was responsible for $510 trillion of the U.S. payments system in 2020 – a 51 percent increase over its size in that category in 2019. The $510 trillion is more than the next three largest banks in that category combined: Bank of New York Mellon at $194.23 trillion; Citigroup at $176.57 trillion; and Bank of America at $138.34 trillion.

And despite Dimon perpetually bragging about the bank’s “fortress balance sheet,” the Federal Reserve has yet to explain why a unit of JPMorgan Chase (J.P. Morgan Securities) needed to secretly borrow a cumulative $2.59 trillion in repo loans from the Fed in the last quarter of 2019 – long before the first case of COVID-19 appeared in the U.S. (See chart below.)

The Senate Banking Committee has told Wall Street On Parade that it will be scheduling its annual hearing with Wall Street CEOs before the year is out. The Committee needs to stop using Wells Fargo as a convenient punching bag and focus on the dangerous elephant in the room – JPMorgan Chase. (By the way, Wells Fargo did not rank number one in even one of the 12 systemic risk categories.)

-END-

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

How novel: Zimbabwe goes for gold coins to fight high inflation

(Washington Post)

Zimbabwe goes for the gold (coins) to fight high inflation

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-07-25 22:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Lesley Wroughton
The Washington Post
Monday, July 25, 2022

With inflation soaring in Zimbabwe and the country’s currency in free fall as people abandon it for the U.S. dollar, the government of President Emmerson Mnangagwa is fighting back with a novel strategy: gold coins.

Starting Monday, Zimbabwe is selling one-ounce, 22-carat gold coins bearing an image of Victoria Falls, its world-famous natural wonder. Each has a serial number, comes with a certificate and will be sold at a price “based on the prevailing international price of gold and the cost of production,” the central bank said in its announcement on July 4.

The coins will be tradable both in Zimbabwe and overseas, the bank said, and can be exchanged for cash. The goal is to reduce the quantity of Zimbabwe dollars in circulation to eventually restore that currency’s value.

What’s unknown is whether the approach has any real chance of success.

While gold is traditionally the ideal hedge against inflation and general economic uncertainty, no country has previously tried to tackle a weakening currency by selling gold coins. “In that sense, it is unusual,” said Carlos Caceres, the International Monetary Fund’s representative to Zimbabwe.

And with gold trading at $1,710 per troy ounce late last week, institutional investors may be the coins’ principal buyers.

“No ordinary person will be able to afford it,” said Prosper Chitambara, a senior researcher at the Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe. “Right now, Zimbabweans are living hand-to-mouth.”…

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/25/zimbabwe-gold-coin-inflation/

END

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

JPMorgan Spoofing Trial May End Without Defendants’ Testimony

July 25, 2022, 6:45 PM

Chicago jury hears from first defense witness on Monday
Attorneys signal defendants won’t take to the stand themselves

Two former JPMorgan Chase & Co. gold traders and a salesman on the bank’s precious metals desk signaled they won’t take the stand at a trial where they’re charged with conspiring to use spoof trades to manipulate prices for years…

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT

Wheat prices jump after Russian missiles hit Odessa, a major port for exporting wheat from Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Wheat Prices Jump After Russian Missiles Hit Odessa

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Wheat prices soared Monday after Russia attacked the Black Sea trade port in Odessa, Ukraine, on Saturday. The strike comes less than one day after Ukraine and Russia brokered an export deal — mediated by Turkey — to export millions of tons of grains. 

On Friday, officials from the U.N., Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine signed an agreement to reopen three ports, including Odessa, the country’s largest port. It’s a move heralded by these officials to alleviate a global food crisis

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the weekend missile attack is “in no way related to infrastructure used for the export of grain.” 

Meanwhile, Ukraine Infrastructure Minister Vasyl Shkurakov said the deal should come into effect in days and the first shipment later this week. 

Chicago wheat futures jumped 4.6% and traded 1.9% higher as of 1230 ET. Prices slid 10% in the days leading to the signing of the export deal. 

“Wheat futures jumped after Russia struck Odessa’s sea port, sparking doubt over its commitment to free Ukrainian grain exports. Moscow said it hit a “military infrastructure facility,” Goldman Sach’s John Flood wrote in a note Monday. 

Wall Street firms are saying the “attack on last Saturday is raising doubts about the resumption of the port activity in appropriate conditions,” Agritel said in a note to clients. 

“The market will inevitably remain very nervous in the event of new bombings or doubts about the concrete implementation of this resumption of export activity,” Agritel continued. 

“It is thought to be unlikely that much will move from Ukraine right away as the infrastructure internally and at the ports needs to be rebuilt,” Jack Scoville, an analyst at Price Futures Group Inc, wrote. 

Ukraine will press ahead with reopening Odessa as traders monitor grain flows from the port, watching for signs of how quickly volumes come online and determining the next move for wheat prices. 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7607

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7653

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 342.94 PTS OR  1.67%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 44.04 OR 0.16%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  106,97/Euro FALLS TO 1.0137

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.200/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.70/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.045%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.27%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 2.987//

3j Gold at $1716.80 silver at: 18.45  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 74/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.85

3m oil into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and  106 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.70DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9657– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9783well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.765  DOWN 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.999  DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.85

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Fizzle As Walmart Warning Batters Bear Market Rally

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 08:09 AM

US stock futures dropped as investors braced for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, while Walmart’s surprise profit warning fueled concerns about the strength of US consumer spending. A barrage of earnings including notable misses by the likes of GM and a 3M guidance cut, did not help the mood. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were each down 0.4% by 7:45am in New York. European stocks rose driven by energy stocks amid a fresh surge in gas prices following Russia warnings of an imminent halving in NS1 shipments even as European Union countries reached a political agreement to cut their gas use. The dollar jumped and 10Y yields tumbled below 2.75% as a recession looks inevitable, no matter how Biden defines it.

In premarket trading, Alibaba Group jumped 5.1% after the Chinese e-commerce giant said it will seek a primary listing in Hong Kong, boosting other US-listed Chinese stocks with it. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks were lower as Bitcoin sank to a one-week low, denting hopes for a sustained rebound. Coinbase fell 4% in premarket trading after a Bloomberg News report that the cryptocurrency company is facing a US probe into whether it improperly let Americans trade digital assets that should have been registered as securities.  Shares of US big-box retailers and e-commerce peers fell in US premarket trading on Tuesday, after Walmart again cut its quarterly and full-year profit guidance just weeks ahead of its earnings report, raising new questions about the damage from surging inflation to consumers’ spending ability. The shares slid as much as 9.8% in US premarket trading. In premarket trading, Target shares drop as much as 4.9%, Costco Wholesale -2.8%; watch Best Buy shares for later in the session
Online retailers also fall amid broader worries over the sector, Amazon -3.8%, Etsy -4.1%, EBay -0.6%, Shopify -6% after a PT cut at Citi; also watch Wayfair and Chewy. Here are some other notable pre-market movers:

  • Shopify (SHOP US) shares fall as much as 6% in US premarket trading, as Citi cuts its price target on the e- commerce platform provider amid fresh economic headwinds.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are lower in US premarket trading as Bitcoin sank to a one-week low on Tuesday. The group is also pressured after a Bloomberg News report about the US Securities and Exchange Commission probing Coinbase over cryptocurrency listings. 
  • Alibaba (BABA US) shares jump 5.1% in US premarket trading after the Chinese e-commerce giant said it will seek a primary listing in Hong Kong, boosting other US-listed Chinese stocks higher with it.
  • F5 (FFIV US) shares rise 7.8% in premarket trading on Tuesday, after the communications equipment company forecast better-than-expected adjusted earnings for the fourth- quarter.
  • Koss Corp. (KOSS US) shares fall as much as 18% in US premarket trading, setting the headphones maker on track to trim part of the 43% surge it posted the previous session after reaching a deal with Apple in an AirPods patent infringement case.
  • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI US) shares are down 1.2% in US premarket trading even as the company issued a strong forecast for the current quarter driven by demand for components used in automobiles. Analysts note that while supply is improving, demand continues to outstrip it.
  • Aaron’s Co (AAN US) shares fell as much as 35% in postmarket trading on Monday as its revenue and earnings guidance cut shows the pressures facing the furniture and appliances retailer, with analysts anticipating that macro headwinds will continue to weigh

Meanwhile, investors are bracing for a flurry of earnings this week to gauge the ability of corporates to overcome supply constraints and soaring prices, just as the S&P 500 is on a course for its best month since October. A barrage of reports from GE, GM, 3M, RTX, MCD And UPS painted a mixed picture, with GE and 3M rising post-results while GM and UPS drop.

“There is still scope in the second half of this year, and maybe even early next year, for earnings disappointment,” said Paul Jackson, Invesco’s global head of asset allocation research, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “There’s still probably a delayed reaction for earnings, and then you have a layer on top of that, the margins squeeze that’s coming through higher raw material costs and in some sectors higher labor costs.”

Coca Cola Inc., McDonald’s Corp. and Mondelez International Inc. are among companies reporting earnings before the market open, while Texas Instruments Inc., Visa Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. will report after hours. These results “could really define an earnings season which, up until now, has been pretty resilient given the backdrop,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Tomorrow we also get the highlight of the week when the Fed is strongly expected to hike rates by 75 basis-points with many speculating that the Fed will have to inflict much more pain on the Biden economy to get inflation under control.

“For the time being, the Fed and other major central banks look much more concerned about the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored than high risk weighing on growth,” Valentine Ainouz, deputy head of developed markets research at Amundi, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Maybe in some months we will have a pivot toward growth, but this is not the mood right now, the mood now is fighting inflation.”

Markets are underestimating the risks of persisting inflation, which is likely to keep central banks hawkish for longer, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. Investors appear to be more optimistic on the central bank put, given that in past cycles the policy makers made a dovish pivot when growth slowed, strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti wrote in a note. 

“The Fed’s main enemy is inflation, and it’s desperate to prevent expectations of sustained inflation from taking hold,” said Frédéric Leroux, a member of Carmignac’s strategic investment committee. “The recession that the Fed will probably provoke by its current monetary tightening is an avatar that it can withstand. In fact, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the central bank wants a recession, given the bearish effects it would have on prices.”

For Katerina Simonetti, an adviser at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, the litany of risks exposes the vulnerability of the 6% rebound in global shares from June lows.

“This is most likely a bear market rally and there are significant risks still facing this market,” she said on Bloomberg Television. “We’re probably going to be seeing a lot of choppiness and potentially some further declines in the market before the year end.”

European shares edged higher, led by the FTSE 100 which climbed on rising oil and metal prices. Currencies are mostly steady and yields dipped ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow.  Euro Stoxx 50 is little changed. FTSE 100 adds 0.8%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.4%. European energy and mining stocks outperform while retailers, autos and telecoms are the worst performing Stoxx 600 sectors.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • UBS shares drop as much as 7.2% after reporting 2Q results that missed expectations. Underlying pretax profit was about 10% below consensus with analysts pointing to a charge in Corporate Center.
  • Eutelsat shares fall as much as 14%, extending yesterday’s losses, after the French satellite operator and OneWeb are set to combine in an all-share deal valuing its UK rival at $3.4 billion.
  • Uniper drops for a fourth day, with shares down as much as 12.6% as a further supply reduction from Russia’s Gazprom helped send gas prices higher.
  • Kesko shares fall as much as 7.6% after the Finnish consumer retail group published its latest earnings, which included declining margins in its Building & Technical retail segment in an otherwise solid report, Kepler Cheuvreux writes.
  • Veolia shares fall as much as 4.4% as the stock was reinstated with an underweight rating at JPMorgan, with the broker bearish on the impact the French water and waste management group will face from Europe’s energy crisis.
  • European retailers slump after Walmart cut its profit outlook, raising new questions about the resilience of consumer spending with inflation at a four-decade high. Zalando declines as much as -6.9%, Ahold -3.7%, Marks & Spencer -5.2%
  • Unilever shares gain as much as 3.2% after the consumer-goods company reported 2Q sales that topped market expectations. Analysts found the sales beat reassuring, though noted the company had maintained its margin outlook for the year.
  • Energy and mining shares are among best-performing groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 index on Tuesday as oil and metals rallied amid a decline in the dollar and signs of tightness in some commodity markets. Shell gains as much as 2.7%, BP +2.4%, Equinor +5.6%; Glencore +3%, Anglo American +3.3%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged higher, rebounding from Monday’s decline, helped by a rally in Alibaba Group and other Chinese tech shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.4%. Alibaba was the biggest contributor to the gauge’s gains after saying it will seek a primary listing, a move that would allow it to seek inclusion in the Stock Connect link with the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. Sector-wise, consumer discretionary and financials were the top performers. Stocks in China gained despite a resurgence of Covid-19 infections that could threaten the operations of industry giants including BYD and Huawei Technologies, while Hong Kong’s equity benchmark was the best performer in the region. Investors are gearing up for a week of earnings releases from some of the biggest tech companies in the US, with the Fed’s meeting also in focus for further insights on the pace and quantum of rate increases. The MSCI Asiagauge jumped 3.6% last week. 

“Despite the slew of data pointing to ongoing growth slowdown, markets seem to have been accustomed to such narrative lately, riding on expectations that growth risks have been priced to a large extent,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. “That will clearly be put to the test to a greater extent this week with a series of big tech earnings, Fed’s policy guidance, along with key US inflation and consumer sentiment data ahead,” he wrote.

Key stock gauges in India declined ahead of the anticipated interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.9% to 55,268.49 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. The 30-member Sensex had 21 stocks trading lower. A gauge of information technology companies fell the most among the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd., all of which declined. Software exporters Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services slipped as investors assessed global recession risks and increasing margin pressure on Indian technology companies. The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday to tame four-decade high inflation.

In FX, the dollar climbed, snapping three days of losses, as traders brace for a widely expected 75 basis points Fed rate rise on Wednesday, part of campaign to tackle inflation.The Japanese yen was little changed at 136.58 per dollar. Sterling fell, erasing gains after touching a three-week high against a broadly sluggish US dollar; still, it’s clinging on to $1.20, leading traders to watch if it can see out the month above key psychological levels.

In rates, treasuries are underpinned by rally in bunds amid concerns about European gas supply. Gains led by belly of the curve, eroding concession ahead of 5-year auction at 1pm New York time. US yields are richer by 2bp-4bp across the curve with the 10Y yield dropping to 2.75%, and a belly-led advance steepening 5s30s spread by 1.7bp; 2s5s30s fly drops 3.7bp on the day onto tightest levels since March ahead of 5- year sale. The final coupon auction cycle of May-July quarter continues with $46b 5-year note sale, following Monday’s solid 2-year auction. WI 5-year yield around 2.84% is ~43bp richer than June result, a 3.5bp tail. European peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy widens, Spain and Portugal tightens. Bunds advanced for a fifth day, the longest run since August as focus remains on gas supply concerns.

In commodities, crude futures rose for the 2nd day: WTI drifts 2.1% higher to trade near $98.74. Brent rises 1.8% near $107.07. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 2.8%. Spot gold rises roughly $4 to trade near $1,724/oz. Spot silver gains 1.1% near $19.

Todays’s economic data slate includes May FHFA house price index, S&P Case-Shiller house prices (9am), July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, consumer confidence, June new home sales (10am); this week also includes durable goods orders, 2Q GDP, personal income/spending (includes PCE deflator), MNI Chicago PMI and University of Michigan sentiment.

In terms of today we have the US July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June new home sales, and the May FHFA house price index. As discussed above EU energy ministers meet. Earnings is in full bloom with Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, LVMH, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Unilever, Mondelez, 3M, General Electric, UBS, General Motors, ADM, Chipotle, and Deutsche Boerse all reporting. Elsewhere the IMF release their economic outlook update. Last but by no means least the FOMC start their crucial two-day meeting.

Market snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,960.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 426.79
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 159.28
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 522.24
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 27,655.21
  • Topix little changed at 1,943.17
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 20,905.88
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,277.44
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 55,385.81
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,807.27
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,412.96
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.98%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0215
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,723.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.50

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • UBS Group AG’s investment bank disappointed in the second quarter as global deal activity collapsed and the trading business struggled to keep pace with Wall Street peers.
  • European natural gas prices surged to the highest level in more than four months, as the region braces for a further reduction in Russian supply that could severely dent efforts to keep the lights on and homes warm this winter.
  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. will seek a primary listing in Hong Kong, entrenching the financial hub’s status as an alternative to US markets and paving the way for investors in China to directly buy shares of the country’s most prominent e-commerce company for the first time.
  • Coinbase Global Inc. is facing a US probe into whether it improperly let Americans trade digital assets that should have been registered as securities, according to three people familiar with the matter.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took their cue from Wall Street and eventually traded mostly higher, albeit some with mild gains, after seeing mixed trade in the early hours until the Chinese open. ASX 200 was supported by its energy and mining sectors as underlying oil and metals prices rose,     Nikkei 225 moved back toward the 27.5k mark to the downside amid currency dynamics whilst the KOSPI was kept afloat after Q2 GDP topped expectations. Hang Seng overlooked reports that Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast and surged amid a boost from Alibaba rising almost 4% as it plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong, which would make it eligible for the Stock Connect programme and allow mainland Chinese investors to trade Co. shares, in turn helping increase liquidity. Shanghai Comp posted modest gains, but the upside was capped as Shanghai added 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown.

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai adds 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown, according to Bloomberg.
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) is pursuing a primary listing on the Hong Kong exchange, expected to occur before the end of 2022; Co. will become a dual primary listed Co. on HKEX and NYSE.
  • Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast in August for the second time in three months, according to SCMP citing the finance chief.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7483 vs exp. 6.7490 (prev. 6. 7543).
  • PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 2bln

European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, in what has been a limited session of newsflow ahead of the EU energy update and US earnings; though, strength in commodities is lifting the FTSE 100 +0.5%. However, further pressure has been seen in wake of most recent Kremlin related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed. Stateside, US futures are dented to the tune of crica. 5/10s of a percent; but, fairly rangebound (ex-above Kremlin related moves) overall pre-earnings and Wednesday’s FOMC.

Top European News

  • Porsche IPO, Software Fix: What Awaits VW’s New CEO
  • European Oil and Mining Stocks Outperform Amid Commodity Gains
  • Hedging Bond Trades Is Getting Harder in UK’s Volatile Markets
  • Rolls-Royce Names Ex-BP Executive as CEO to Succeed East
  • Beijing Denounces Truss Vow to Crack Down on China Firms in UK
  • UBS CEO Hamers Signals Worst Over for Asia Deleveraging

Central Banks

  • RBNZ Governor Orr says in addition to remit review, RBNZ will also review recent performance in conducting monetary policy; will assess inflation and employment outcomes relative to targets, via Reuters.
  • CNB’s Frait says policy is already quite restrictive, won’t rule out a hike now or in the near time. Temporary FX interventions are normal in situations of shock to balance of payments, via Reuters.

FX

  • Aussie fades after probing Fib resistance vs Greenback and Loonie following oil powered rise to best levels since mid-June, AUD/USD back under 0.6950 from 0.6983, USD/CAD above 1.2880 from sub-1.2820.
  • Dollar regains poise otherwise in choppy, cautious trade pre-FOMC, DXY rebounds firmly from 106.190 surpassing Monday high of 106.890 to 107.10+.
  • Yen and Franc find some traction from pronounced bounce in bonds and reversion to bull-flattening, USD/CHF and USD/JPY hold below/above 0.9650 and 136.50 respectively.
  • Euro undermined by ongoing Russian gas supply jitters ahead of Extraordinary Energy Summit, EUR/USD retreats from 1.0250 to circa 1.0140.
  • Pound pulls up after narrowly missing 1.2100 vs Buck, Cable now below 1.2000, albeit still relatively comfortably above a series of recent descending lows.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds back in bull-flattening mode as Bunds front run latest leg higher.
  • 10 year German benchmark reaches 155.90 and peaks not seen since late May, while yield breaches 1% with more conviction.
  • Gilts and T-notes lag within 117-6935 and 120-04/119-24 respective ranges ahead of the Fed tomorrow and BoE next week.
  • BTPs off lest levels and lag periphery peers amidst short term and linker supply.

Commodities

  • Dutch TTF continues to lift with the August contract in proximity to EUR 200 as Nord Stream 1 is set to be curtailed tomorrow; however, the EU has agreed on a deal to reduce gas use.
  • Crude benchmarks are bid and drawing impetus from the referenced factors and EU divisions, though the magnitude of the move is more modest in nature vs TTF.
  • EU nations agree to reduce gas use for next winter.; only Hungary voted against approval of mandatory gas rationing if Russia shuts off the taps, France24 reports. Reminder, press conferences are expected at 12:30BST/07:30ET and 15:00BST/10:00ET.
  • EU energy chief Simson says Europe has to be prepared for supply cuts from Russia at any moment, expects to have a deal today in curbing gas demand.
  • Libyan oil minister says oil production is 1.1mln BPD.
  • China is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 300 and CNY 290/tonne respectively as of July 27th.
  • Spot gold is little changed overall and moving at the whim of the USD while base metals remain bid in a continuation of APAC trade.

Crypto

  • Coinbase (COIN) faces SEC probe over crypto listings, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • US House lawmakers are reportedly delaying consideration of a bipartisan bill to regulate stablecoins, according to WSJ citing sources, pushing back consideration of the measure until after Congress’ August break.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:00: May FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%
  • 09:00: May S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.77%
    • 09:00: May S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 20.60%, prior 21.23%
  • 10:00: July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 97.0, prior 98.7
    • Expectations, prior 66.4
    • Present Situation, prior 147.1
  • 10:00: July Richmond Fed Index, est. -14, prior -11
  • 10:00: June New Home Sales MoM, est. -5.4%, prior 10.7%
    • June New Home Sales, est. 658,000, prior 696,000

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

10 years ago today Draghi uttered the seminal lines “whatever it takes” when referring to keeping Europe together when ECB President. It clearly worked but a decade later, Europe is again facing testing times, still partly because of Italy but also because of inflation and an energy crisis that has flared up again over the last 24 hours.

Indeed in yesterday’s EMR we discussed how this week was all about the US (FOMC and likely technical recession confirmation) but that we needed to watch the gas flows as Putin had suggested late last week that if the turbine didn’t make it back to Russia by early this week gas flows could be cut back from 40% capacity to 20% due to works being required on another turbine. The news flow yesterday was originally more positive as documentation between Siemens and Gazprom seemed to indicate that the repaired turbine issue was getting closer to being finalised. However the day turned late in the European session as Gazprom announced that another turbine will go out of service at 7am tomorrow for maintenance and gas would indeed be cut back to 20%. We can’t say we weren’t warned I suppose. It’s a bit confusing as to whether this will be a short restriction of supply while the repaired turbine makes its way back online or whether the paperwork will never quite be resolved, and we live with only 20% supplies for a considerable time. Siemens and the German government have said that there is no reason for transportation of the repaired turbine not to start back on its final leg to Russia.

Peter Sidorov has published a review of the latest news here and what it means for the economy over winter in an overnight blog. Peter says that from reading the Russian version of the latest statement from Gazprom, they are looking for clearer guarantees on future sanctions exemptions for maintenance of NS1 and related issues. This will likely be hard to achieve and the Russians will know this. So it appears like Russian politics will be in control here for now.

As we mentioned last week, at 40% capacity Germany could make it through the winter even if some light rationing was needed. At 20% you would likely need some notable rationing unless they cut gas exports which would be a very delicate thing to do politically. Gas futures rallied around 10% on the news, closing a touch under that. EU energy minister meet today to discuss the ongoing crisis and potentially revise the rationing plans laid out by the EC last week. The potentially forced 15% reduction that all member states would have to adhere to was very unpopular amongst several members. Expect lots of carve-outs and compromises to appear if a plan that can progress is agreed upon.

The biggest market impact to yesterday’s gas move (outside of gas itself of course) was in bonds, with bunds falling -6bps into the close after an earlier sell-off in bonds. 10yr Bunds closed c.-1bps lower. There wasn’t any major move in spreads though as Italy tightened a basis point to bunds. European equities dipped on the news but mostly stayed in positive territory with the exception of the DAX (-0.33%). The Stoxx 600 closed +0.13%.

The US is certainly taking an interest in Europe’s problems at the moment (Gas and Italy) but it generally then moves on and marches to its own beat. 10yr Treasuries still climbed c.+5bps, even if they were 4bps off the days highs. This morning in Asia, yields on are around -1bps lower, trading at 2.786%, as we go to press. US equities generally held onto gains with the S&P 500 (+0.13%) but with the NASDAQ (-0.43%) dipping ahead of a huge week of tech earnings. We have Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell today followed by Meta tomorrow and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. So that’s over $7.5 trillion of market cap here alone at stake over the next couple of days although with these 5 stocks being down between around -13% (Apple) YTD to around -50% (Meta), with the other three down around -20 to -25%, this figure would have been closer to $10 trillion at the start of the year. Elsewhere in earnings land, we have GM, NXP Semiconductors, Raytheon Technologies, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Unilever and Mondelez reporting today amongst others. So plenty to keep an eye on today and for the rest of the week on the reporting front.

Back to US equities and Energy was the main winner (+3.71%) as Oil rose c.+2% yesterday and is up another +1.25% this morning ahead of some big oil majors reporting this week. Consumer Discretionary (-0.85%) was the weakest, likely on the bubbling recession fears. After the bell Walmart cut their outlook for Q2 and FY 23 and with it their equity fell -9.94% in after hours. As a result US futures are down with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.28%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.40%) edging lower this morning.

Asian equity markets have been fluctuating this morning and are still mostly higher with the Hang Seng (+1.60%) leading gains after Alibaba rose as much as +4.80% as it announced that it will be applying for a primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If completed, Alibaba will become a dual-primary listed company in Hong Kong and New York. The move is expected to happen by year-end. Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (+0.81%) and the CSI (+0.96%) are climbing, reversing their previous session declines whilst the Nikkei (-0.06%) is fractionally lower this morning. Elsewhere, the Kospi (+0.12%) is edging up as South Korea’s Q2 growth rose +0.7% q/q (v/s +0.4% expected), faster than the +0.6% growth in the first quarter.

Data yesterday wasn’t top tier but both Chicago and Dallas Fed activity indices were slightly weaker than expected. The German IFO was slightly weaker too (88.6 vs 90.1 expected) but it was hard to upstage the poor PMIs from last Friday which set the tone for a major rally in bunds at the back end of last week. Its remarkable that after an initial spike to 0.765% for 2 year Bunds after the ECB, they dipped to 0.35% a day later after first the TPI wobbles and then the weak PMIs, and to around 0.4% at the close last night.

In terms of today we have the US July Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, June new home sales, and the May FHFA house price index. As discussed above EU energy ministers meet. Earnings is in full bloom with Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, LVMH, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Unilever, Mondelez, 3M, General Electric, UBS, General Motors, ADM, Chipotle, and Deutsche Boerse all reporting. Elsewhere the IMF release their economic outlook update. Last but by no means least the FOMC start their crucial two-day meeting.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment sours amid Kremlin updates, EU Energy deal & US-earnings in focus – Newsquawk US Market Open

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TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 06:50 AM

  • European bourses and US futures spent much of the morning under modest pressure, with the US in particular fairly rangebound pre-earnings & Wednesday’s FOMC.
  • However, further pressure has been seen in wake of the most recent Kremlin-related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed.
  • Dutch TTF & Crude benchmarks bid ahead of further Nord Stream 1 curtailments, though, the upside waned as the EU agrees on an emergency energy deal for the winter
  • DXY continues to climb amid the above newsflow/narrative, pressuring peers while core debt climbs and US yields flatten modestly.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, the EU’s Energy Summit pressers and, supply from the US.
  • Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, the EU’s Energy Summit pressers and, supply from the US.
  • Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

  • EU member states have agreed an emergency plan to reduce the bloc’s gas consumption in a bid to soften the impact of a potential total stoppage in Russian gas supplies, DPA has learned.
  • Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister says we will stop grain exports if we detect any Russian threats in the Black Sea, via Al Jazeera.
  • Kremlin says turbine for Nord Stream 1 pipeline is on its way after maintenance, still not been installed, via Reuters.
  • Explosions were reported in the countryside of Odessa province, southern Ukraine, according to an Al Jazeera correspondent.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • RBNZ Governor Orr says in addition to remit review, RBNZ will also review recent performance in conducting monetary policy; will assess inflation and employment outcomes relative to targets, via Reuters.
  • CNB’s Frait says policy is already quite restrictive, won’t rule out a hike now or in the near time. Temporary FX interventions are normal in situations of shock to balance of payments, via Reuters.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, in what has been a limited session of newsflow ahead of the EU energy update and US earnings; though, strength in commodities is lifting the FTSE 100 +0.5%.
  • However, further pressure has been seen in wake of most recent Kremlin related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed.
  • Stateside, US futures are dented to the tune of crica. 5/10s of a percent; but, fairly rangebound (ex-above Kremlin related moves) overall pre-earnings and Wednesday’s FOMC.
  • United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 3.35 (exp. 3.16), Revenue 24.8bln (exp. 24.62bln)
  • General Motors Co (GM) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.14 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 35.8bln (exp. 34.52bln). FY EPS view 6.50-7.50 (exp. 6.89).
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Aussie fades after probing Fib resistance vs Greenback and Loonie following oil powered rise to best levels since mid-June, AUD/USD back under 0.6950 from 0.6983, USD/CAD above 1.2880 from sub-1.2820.
  • Dollar regains poise otherwise in choppy, cautious trade pre-FOMC, DXY rebounds firmly from 106.190 surpassing Monday high of 106.890 to 107.10+.
  • Yen and Franc find some traction from pronounced bounce in bonds and reversion to bull-flattening, USD/CHF and USD/JPY hold below/above 0.9650 and 136.50 respectively.
  • Euro undermined by ongoing Russian gas supply jitters ahead of Extraordinary Energy Summit, EUR/USD retreats from 1.0250 to circa 1.0140.
  • Pound pulls up after narrowly missing 1.2100 vs Buck, Cable now below 1.2000, albeit still relatively comfortably above a series of recent descending lows.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds back in bull-flattening mode as Bunds front run latest leg higher.
  • 10 year German benchmark reaches 155.90 and peaks not seen since late May, while yield breaches 1% with more conviction.
  • Gilts and T-notes lag within 117-6935 and 120-04/119-24 respective ranges ahead of the Fed tomorrow and BoE next week.
  • BTPs off lest levels and lag periphery peers amidst short term and linker supply.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Dutch TTF continues to lift with the August contract in proximity to EUR 200 as Nord Stream 1 is set to be curtailed tomorrow; however, the EU has agreed on a deal to reduce gas use.
  • Crude benchmarks are bid and drawing impetus from the referenced factors and EU divisions, though the magnitude of the move is more modest in nature vs TTF.
  • EU nations agree to reduce gas use for next winter.; only Hungary voted against approval of mandatory gas rationing if Russia shuts off the taps, France24 reports. Reminder, press conferences are expected at 12:30BST/07:30ET and 15:00BST/10:00ET.
  • EU energy chief Simson says Europe has to be prepared for supply cuts from Russia at any moment, expects to have a deal today in curbing gas demand.
  • Libyan oil minister says oil production is 1.1mln BPD.
  • China is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 300 and CNY 290/tonne respectively as of July 27th.
  • Spot gold is little changed overall and moving at the whim of the USD while base metals remain bid in a continuation of APAC trade.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Walmart (WMT) lowered its profit outlook for Q2 and FY23 primarily due to pricing actions aimed to improve inventory levels. Net sales include currency headwinds of roughly USD 1bln in Q2. Co. Expects a USD 1.8bln headwind in H2 ’22. Walmart (WMT) shares fell over 9%, Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) were also hit.
  • Amazon (AMZN) to raise Prime subscription prices across Europe effective September 15th, according to a spokesman; price hike to be by 20% or more a year, according to Reuters. Prices will increase by 30% in Germany, 20% in the UK, and between 39-43% in Spain, Italy and France, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

CRYPTO

  • Coinbase (COIN) faces SEC probe over crypto listings, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • US House lawmakers are reportedly delaying consideration of a bipartisan bill to regulate stablecoins, according to WSJ citing sources, pushing back consideration of the measure until after Congress’ August break.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks took their cue from Wall Street and eventually traded mostly higher, albeit some with mild gains, after seeing mixed trade in the early hours until the Chinese open.
  • ASX 200 was supported by its energy and mining sectors as underlying oil and metals prices rose,
  • Nikkei 225 moved back toward the 27.5k mark to the downside amid currency dynamics whilst the KOSPI was kept afloat after Q2 GDP topped expectations.
  • Hang Seng overlooked reports that Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast and surged amid a boost from Alibaba rising almost 4% as it plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong, which would make it eligible for the Stock Connect programme and allow mainland Chinese investors to trade Co. shares, in turn helping increase liquidity.
  • Shanghai Comp posted modest gains, but the upside was capped as Shanghai added 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Shanghai adds 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown, according to Bloomberg.
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) is pursuing a primary listing on the Hong Kong exchange, expected to occur before the end of 2022; Co. will become a dual primary listed Co. on HKEX and NYSE.
  • Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast in August for the second time in three months, according to SCMP citing the finance chief.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7483 vs exp. 6.7490 (prev. 6. 7543).
  • PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 2bln

DATA RECAP

  • South Korean GDP Growth QQ Advance (Q2) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%); YY Advance (Q2) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.0%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.05 PTS OR 0.83%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.94 OR 1,07%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 44.04 OR % 0.16.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.27%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7607//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7653//    /Oil UP TO 98.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 106.71// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.05 PTS OR 0.83%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342.94 OR 1.07%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 44.04 OR % 0.16.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.27%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

What on earth are they doing? This will harm Chinese citizens not help them.

(zerohedge)

China Approves HIV Drug For COVID Patients

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 05:45 PM

China on Monday gave a conditional green light to repurpose a drug, which is typically used to threat certain HIV-1 virus infections, for “normal type” COVID infections, Reuters reports, citing the National Medical Products Administration.

The drug, Azvudine, is made by Genuine Biotech, was approved in July 2021 to treat specific HIV infections.

In a late-stage clinical trial, 40.4% of patients taking Azvudine showed improvement in symptoms seven days after first taking the drug, compared with 10.9% in the control group, Henan province-based Genuine Biotech said in a statement earlier this month, without providing detailed readings. -Reuters

“Normal type” COVID is defined as coronavirus infections which include signs of pneumonia, but where the patient hasn’t progressed to a severe stage.

The drug’s approval marks the latest step in China’s shift from a “zero Covid” policy of lockdowns, to accepting that the virus is now endemic – and apparently can be treated with an AIDS medication.

The availability of effective COVID vaccines and treatments is crucial in laying the groundwork for China’s potential pivoting from its “dynamic COVID zero” policy, which aims to eliminate every outbreak – however small – and relies on mass testing and strict quarantining. -Reuters

In February, China approved Pfizer’s oral Paxlovid treatment for adults suffering mild-to-moderate COVID who are at high risk of progressing to severe disease.

end

CHINA//

China experiencing huge outflows: the 2nd highest since the COVID crash of 2019-2020

(zerohedge)

China June FX Outflows Are The 2nd Highest Since The Covid Crash

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 11:05 PM

With China’s economy slowing to levels not seen this century…

… and its financial system in danger of disintegration should the housing crash escalate further (which is why in a sharp reversal to months of non-action, overnight Beijing launched a multi-billion fund to support struggling developers), many have been wondering how long will local oligarchs wait before (quietly) pulling their money out of the country.

Well, according to the most accurate gauge of FX flows, June saw another month of net outflows of around US$9BN, in comparison to inflows of US$2bn in May, the biggest outflow since February and the second biggest outflow in two years going back to the Covid crash.

Cross-border RMB flows suggest net payments of RMB from onshore to offshore, which was consistent with the continued bond outflows.

Here are the main highlights:

1. In June, there were US $4BN in net inflows via onshore outright spot transactions, and US $2BN inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” shows that domestic banks made net RMB payments of $15BN from onshore to offshore. A preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests in total $9BN outflows in June, in comparison with $2BN inflows in May.

2. Current account saw small net inflows: Goods trade surplus translated into $25BN inflows in June, vs $8BN in May. Here Goldman notes that while goods trade surplus rose to a record-high level of $98BN in June, the conversion ratio of goods trade surplus remained low at 26%, vs an average of 39% in the prior six months. Previous analyses suggested the conversion rate tends to decline when CNY weakens and interest rate spreads narrow. According to SAFE, corporates’ FX hedging ratio increased to 26% in 1H 2022, 4% higher than the same period last year. Services trade deficit remained muted at $6BN. Income and transfers account showed an outflow of $16BN in June, partially on seasonality.

3. Portfolio investment showed outflows in June. Stock Connect data suggests more northbound buying of equities (relative to southbound buying) in the month, and thus on a net basis, translates into around $4BN inflows through Stock Connect in June. China Central Depository & Clearing and Shanghai Clearing House data suggest foreigners continued to reduce their holding of RMB bonds by US$13.9bn in June, vs US$16.3bn outflows in May.

4. Official FX reserves (released earlier in the month) fell to US$3,071bn in June from US$3,128bn in May. Estimating for FX valuation effects would have lowered FX reserves by $34BN in June, so after adjusting for FX valuation effects, FX reserves declined by US$23bn in June. Note that decline in bond and equity prices might have also contributed to the overall decline in reported FX reserves through asset price valuation effect, although SAFE does not release the exact decomposition of China’s FX reserves.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

/GERMANY//GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU//update

How A Russian Gas Freeze Would Curtail European GDPs

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Following Putin’s decision to turn the screws once again, fears are mounting across Europe (and especially in Germany) that the tap will not be turned off again… for good.

The EU is ready to release emergency plans to reduce gas demand across the whole continent that is in large parts dependent (some more so than others) on Russian pipeline gas. The target would be a 10-15 percent overall cut of gas use, according to Reuters. This would allow gas storage to be filled to capacity before a potential end of Russian supply.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details belowa complete shut-off from the Russian side would have disastrous effects for European economies, according to the IMF.

Infographic: How a Russian Gas Freeze Would Curtail European GDPs | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Twelve months after a total freeze, the organization estimates that some countries could lose several percentage points of GDP output.

Some Central European countries – Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – as well as Italy would be hit hardest. In a worst-case scenario where the continent does not achieve fast LNG integration, experiences many adjustment problems and decides to protect private households, not just industries, from gas shortages, between five and six percentage points could be shaved off GDP output in these countries. Germany and Poland would fare slightly better at losses between two and three percentage points in this scenario.

As natural gas is used widely in Europe to supply heat and hot water in private homes, tensions have been running high over who should take priority in case of a pressing gas shortage in the coming winter.

Even for European countries which are not using Russian gas, spillover effects could mean up to 0.8 percent shaved off GDP should one of the IMF worse-case scenarios befall the continent. This includes the UK, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium and Croatia. As more and more countries are attempting a swift switch to LNG, problems of EU market integration could likewise mean losses for non-dependent countries. They could be about equal in size in the UK and Ireland and up to 2.2 percent in Croatia.

END

EU Countries Reach Agreement On 15% Coordinated Demand Reduction For Next Winter

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 08:38 AM

Following Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC’s decision to reduce natural gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, European Union countries agreed on a 15% demand cut through next winter as the probabilities of reaching 80% NatGas storage filling target dwindle, reported Bloomberg

EU energy ministers convened in Brussels on Tuesday and gave the ‘thumbs up’ to a proposal to voluntarily cut their NatGas demand over the coming months, the Czech presidency of the EU tweeted. Under an emergency, such as Gazprom reducing NatGas flows to zero, the plan states EU countries will have to reduce demand by 15%. 

“The EU stands together – agreement on a 15% coordinated demand reduction regulation in only 1 week ! – reducing our gas consumption by 45 bcm is the best move to react to Putin’s gasblackmail – only Hungary voted against,” Luxembourg’s energy minister Claude Turmes tweeted.

The news of a coordinated demand reduction plan comes one day after Gazprom said it would reduce Nord Steam 1 pipeline flows to Europe from 40% of capacity to just 20%. On Tuesday, flows dropped to just 38%. 

According to Bloomberg energy expert Javier Blas, with “Nord Stream 1 flowing at just 20% of capacity from July 27, Germany will NOT have enough natural gas to make it throughout the whole winter **unless big demand reductions are implemented**. Berlin will need to activate stage 3 of its gas emergency program.”

The decline in Nord Stream flows made the probability of EU countries reaching the 80% NatGas storage filling target by winter even more unlikely, implying Europe is facing a freezing winter but also what could be a painful recession. 

Sven Giegold, a deputy German economy minister, said the new plan is “an unprecedented step in European solidarity … “EU states that do not import any Russian gas are showing support and have committed to reducing consumption. This has never happened before.”

Bloomberg outlines some EU countries had concerns over the cuts: 

In the run-up to the meeting, a number of countries including Italy, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Spain had raised concerns over the reduction goals, citing demand cuts already achieved, lack of gas connections to other countries and the fact that decisions on energy are usually a national competence.

The Czech Republic, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, had proposed a number of changes in recent days to the commission’s plan from last week in a bid to bring nations onside.

The revisions included a provision that would increase the number of countries that have to request that a 15% demand-reduction target be made mandatory to five from three, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg. The commission could also propose the emergency measure if it deemed there’s a high risk of a shortage. Both scenarios would also need majority backing from member states to take effect.

Other tweaks included taking into account the level of gas storage in a country as well as the possibility of excluding certain key industries. The rules would also only be set for one year, rather than two as originally outlined. Member states could ask for a lower mandatory reduction under certain criteria based on their interconnections with other nations — island countries like Ireland for instance.

Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details a complete shut-off of Nord Stream would have disastrous effects on European economies. 

Infographic: How a Russian Gas Freeze Would Curtail European GDPs | Statista

NatGas is used widely in Europe to supply household heat and hot water. So any forced demand curtailment this winter could leave many people freezing and unhappy.

END 

ITALY

a good read on the plight of Italy and how Mario Draghi played a major part

Fazi/Unherd.com

How Mario Draghi Broke Italy

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Fazi via UnHerd.com,

Mario Draghi’s defenestration has left the Italian — and indeed international — establishment reeling in horror. This is not surprising. When he was nominated as Italy’s prime minister at the beginning of last year, Europe’s political and economic elites welcomed his arrival as a miracle. Virtually every party in the Italian parliament — including the two formerly “populist” parties that won the elections in 2018, the Five Star Movement and the League — offered their support. The tone of the discussion was captured well by the powerful governor of the Campania region, Vincenzo De Luca (PD), who compared Draghi to “Christ” himself.

Everyone agreed: a Draghi government would be a blessing for the country, a final opportunity to redeem its sins and “make Italy great again”. Draghi, they said, simply by virtue of his “charisma”, “competence”, “intelligence” and “international clout”, would keep bond markets at bay, enact much-needed reforms, and relaunch Italy’s stagnant economy.

Alas, reality hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations: Draghi leaves behind a country in tatters. The latest European Commission macroeconomic forecast predicted that Italy will experience the slowest economic growth in the bloc next year, at just 0.9%, owing to a decline in consumer spending due to rising prices and lower business investment — a result of rising borrowing and energy costs, as well as disruptions in the supply of Russian gas.

Italy is also experiencing one of the fastest-growing inflation rates in Europe — which is currently at 8.6%, the highest level in more than three decades. Interest rates on Italian government bonds have also been steadily climbing ever since Draghi came to power, rising four-fold under his watch; today they stand at the highest level in almost a decade.

And this “polycrisis” has taken its toll on Italian society: 5.6 million Italians — almost 10% of the population, including 1.4 million minors — currently live in absolute poverty, the highest level on record. Many of these are in work, and that number is bound to increase as real wages in Italy continue to fall at the highest pace in the bloc. Meanwhile, almost 100,000 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are at risk of insolvency — a 2% increase compared to last year.

So much for “Super Mario”, then. Of course, one could argue that other countries are experiencing similar problems, but it would be a mistake to let Draghi off the hook. He has been one of the staunchest supporters of the measures that led to this situation, having been a driving force in pushing for tough EU sanctions against Moscow — sanctions that are crippling Europe’s economies, while leaving Russia largely unscathed.

Draghi even boasted about the bold measures adopted by Italy to wean the country off Russian gas — the result being that Italy is now the country that pays the highest wholesale electricity prices in the entire EU. The absurdity of these policies becomes apparent when we consider his attempt to reduce Italy’s dependence on Russian gas by reviving several coal-fired power plants — coal that Italy largely imports from Russia.

Worse still, Draghi did little or nothing to shield wage-earners, households and small businesses from the impact of these policies. Indeed, the few “structural” measures enacted by his government have all been aimed at promoting privatisation, liberalisation, deregulation and fiscal consolidation — such as opening up for privatisation those few public services that had remained outside of the scope of the market, further “flexibilising” labour, putting private beaches up for public tender for the first time in decades, or attempting to expand taxi services to include ride-sharing operators like Uber, sparking massive protests.

For anyone who has an inkling of Draghi’s ideology, this is hardly surprising. As I’ve argued before, Mario Draghi is the bodily incarnation of “neoliberalism”. Neither is it surprising that those policies haven’t delivered, given that the EU’s neoliberal logic, based upon privatisation, fiscal austerity and wage compression — which Draghi has played a crucial role in implementing since the early Nineties — is the main reason Italy is in such a mess to begin with. Draghi also further strengthened the EU’s stranglehold over the Italian economy by relentlessly peddling the narrative that Italy desperately needed the European Covid recovery funds to kickstart its economy, and that in order to access those funds it needed to diligently implement the reforms demanded by Brussels.

Yet in macroeconomic terms, the funds in question are a pittance, and nowhere close to what would be needed to have a meaningful impact on Italy’s economy. But they come with very strict conditionalities. This is ultimately what the EU’s Next Generation EU “recovery fund” is all about: increasing Brussels’s control over the budgetary policies of member states and strengthening the EU’s regime of technocratic and authoritarian control. And who better than Draghi could be trusted with locking such measures in place? As he himself noted, the “reform path” laid down by his government meant that “we have created the conditions for the [EU recovery] work to continue, regardless of who is [in government]” — thus ensuring that future governments wouldn’t stray from the path of righteousness.

Draghi, however, doesn’t just leave behind him a scorched economy but also a deeply fractured and divided society. He is the man responsible for devising the most punitive, discriminatory and segregational mass vaccination policies in the West, which not only excluded millions of unvaccinated people — including children — from social life, by extending vaccine passports to practically all public spaces, but also restricted many people from working. He also helped make the unvaccinated the target of institutionally sanctioned hate speech, such as when he infamously claimed: “You don’t get vaccinated, you get sick, you die. Or you kill.”

All this might offer an indication of why a recent poll showed that 50% of Italians weren’t happy with the government’s work. And yet, in spite of these rather unimpressive results, when Draghi initially announced his intention to resign, the Italian establishment went into an apoplectic fit. In what will go down in history as one of the most pathetic demonstrations of the sycophantic conformism of Italian society, almost every professional category you can think of rushed to launch their own appeal begging Draghi to stay on — not only wealthy businessmen, as was to be expected, but also doctors, pharmacists, nurses, mayorsuniversity deansNGOsprogressive intellectuals and even the CGIL, the country’s largest union.

Even more pitiably, the Italian media gave massive coverage to several “pro-Draghi demonstrations” — numbering not more than a few dozen peoplePerhaps most comically, one of the country’s largest news agencies, Adnkronoseven spoke of how several homeless people had come out to show their support for Draghi. One of these was quoted saying: “Draghi is making the difference. Italy has regained prestige and credibility thanks to him. As a homeless person I can testify to the fact that there’s a greater attention to us now and that’s thanks to Draghi.”

The Western international establishment also threw all its weight behind Draghi. Everyone from the Financial Times to the Guardian to the EU Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni came out to explain what a tragedy losing Draghi would be for Italy — and indeed for Europe as a whole. Gentiloni went so far as saying that “a perfect storm” would sweep over the country if Draghi were to leave; while the Guardian limited itself to instructing Italy’s MPs that Draghi “should stay for now”. The New York Times unironically claimed that Draghi’s departure would put an end to the “brief golden period” he ushered in for Italy. Talk of foreign actors meddling in Italy’s affairs.

So why, in spite of such massive pressures, did three parties effectively pull the plug on his government last week? Part of the explanation lies in the extent to which Draghi had managed to alienate parties such as the Five Star Movement and the League — refusing to engage with them on hardly any of his government’s policies, or to acknowledge even the most timid criticism. On more than one occasion, Draghi made very clear what he considered to be parliament’s role: that of rubber-stamping the decisions taken by government. This is evident also in Draghi’s abuse of the instrument of the confidence vote.

In his Senate speech last week, Draghi was even more explicit: after saying that he had decided to reconsider his resignation because “that is what the people want”, he essentially told Parliament that he was willing to stay on as premier only so long as the parties would agree not to interfere with any of the government’s future decisions. For many of those present in Parliament, the arrogance and megalomania of Draghi’s speech went a step too far — and moreover some say that Berlusconi was waiting for the right moment to avenge the time he was unseated by Draghi, in 2011, when the latter was president of the ECB.

However, one shouldn’t overstate the importance of Parliament’s anti-Draghi revolt. Ultimately, Draghi did little more than spell out an uncomfortable truth to the parties: “You have no real power, just accept it.” But that is a truth the political parties aren’t ready to accept. Ultimately, they are unwilling to face the fundamental contradiction between the country’s formal institutional architecture — that of a parliamentary democracy — and what we may call its “actually existing” institutional architecture, in which Parliament and by definition the political parties have almost no power whatsoever, because government itself, in the context of the eurozone, has little if any economic autonomy. The parties know this but are unwilling to admit it (to themselves but most importantly to voters).

This leaves them in a state of permanent cognitive dissonance, leading to what we may call “the political cycle of the external constraint”. As in “normal” countries, parties vie for consensus on the basis of different electoral platforms — and as often happens, the parties promising “change” happen to win. However, unlike in “normal” countries, the parties that get into government soon find out that they lack the “normal” instruments of economic policy necessary to really change anything in socio-economic terms. In fact, they have little choice but to go along with what Brussels and Frankfurt say, and if they don’t play ball the ECB is always ready to turn up the heat. At that point, if the government doesn’t back down, the ECB will engineer a full-blown financial crisis (think Italy in 2011 or Greece in 2015) — which usually leads the political parties to turn to EU-backed technocrats to fix a problem the EU created in the first place.

Yet even if the government yields, the growing tension between the requirements of the external constraint and the demands of citizens, which the parties lack the tools to remedy, leads them to turn to technocrats to resolve the impasse, by having them implement the measures the parties don’t want to take responsibility for. Then, at a certain point, usually as new elections approach, political parties feel the need to re-legitimise themselves in the eyes of voters and thus  put the technocratic genie back into the lamp — until the next crisis, which sets a new cycle in motion.

This is largely the story of what happened between 2018 and Draghi’s ouster, as the Five Star Movement and League went from anti-EU populism to Draghi over the course of just a few years. And the next elections will set in motion a new cycle, possibly hailed by a centre-right Giorgia Meloni-led government. But as the social and economic situation continues to worsen, these cycles are also bound to grow shorter and shorter. A future centre-right government — “populist” or not — would have little or no ability to resolve the crises left behind by Draghi. As always, the shots will be called in Brussels and Frankfurt.

With the launch of its recent Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), the ECB has provided itself with a tool that technically allows it to do “whatever it takes” to close euro spreads, thus potentially averting future financial crises. Such intervention, however, is conditional on compliance with the EU’s fiscal framework and with the “reforms” outlined in each country’s “recovery fund” plans — already locked in place by Draghi. But these will do nothing to end the unfolding social and economic crisis; in fact, they are certain to worsen it. In other words, the next Italian government, if it wants to stay financially afloat, will have little choice but to follow the economic diktats of the EU — or else. In such a context, how long before the last remnants of democratic legitimacy in countries such as Italy break down? And what then?

Ultimately, the next euro crisis is much more likely to break out on the streets of Europe than on financial markets.

end

UK

London power prices spike 5,000% with last week’s heat wave:  London relied on Belgium to supply extra power to thwart a rolling blackout

(zerohedge)

London Power Prices Spike 5,000%, Relies On Belgium To Thwart Rolling Blackout

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 04:15 AM

London’s power grid was pushed to the brink of failure following last week’s record-breaking heatwave

Javier Blas, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities, said power grid disruption hit the eastern part of the British capital for a brief period on July 20 as air conditioners were turned down and spiked power demand, resulting in a bottleneck on the grid. 

British utilities had trouble pulling from other power-generating sources on the grid. They relied on Belgium via undersea water cables across the English Channel to increase power supply — boosting power prices to a record high of £9,724.54 (about $11,685) per megawatt hour. This is more than 5,000% versus average power prices of £178 (about $215) per megawatt hour. 

Blas said the grid crisis “quietly played out within the control room of the British electricity system.” Besides melting airport runways and buckling railroad tracks because of the extreme heat, power grid woes were rarely mentioned in the press last week. He said, “this shows the growing vulnerability of energy transportation networks — power grids and gas and oil pipelines — across much of the industrialized world after years of low investment and not-in-my-backyard opposition.”

Utilities were paying record high power prices for 60 minutes or so out of desperation to keep the grid stable and avoid large rolling blackouts. 

“It was an absolute shock,” Phil Hewitt, the executive director of EnAppSys Ltd, an energy consultancy, said. 

Hewitt said, “It was the price to keep the lights on. The security of supply was at stake.”

A grid spokesperson said if Belgium didn’t supply it with extra power, it would’ve been forced to “undertake demand control and disconnect homes from electricity.” 

Blas blamed the grid bottleneck on aging infrastructure and underinvestment. 

In a normal situation, without the traffic jams on the grid, the UK should have been able to send power to the southeast of England from elsewhere in the country — even from all the way in Scotland, where offshore wind farms are producing more than ever. The problem is that the UK, and the rest of the industrialized nations, aren’t investing enough in their grids, leaving the system exposed. -Blas

Congested power grids suggest the UK is sleepwalking into more what could be worsening blackouts. Grid troubles emerge before winter as parts of Europe have very tight natural gas storage.

end 

EU///GAZPROM

EU Natural Gas Prices Soar As Gazprom Readies Nord Stream Cuts, US NatGas Hits 14-Year High

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 09:16 AM

European natural gas futures extended gains by 12% after Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC unexpectedly announced it would halt a Nord Stream 1 turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from Wednesday. Simultaneously, US NatGas futures have spiked to 14-year highs.

Russian NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream pipeline fell to 38% capacity from 40% on Tuesday, ahead of a more significant cut from current levels to just 20% on Wednesday. 

In a statement, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would be pumping 33 million cubic meters a day, or 20% of capacity, from Wednesday, adding another turbine for the pipeline will be taken offline due to maintenance work. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said another Nord Stream turbine has “problems” and will be taken offline for maintenance. 

Peskov noted a turbine sent to Canada earlier is “en route” but didn’t specify its exact location.

Western sanctions prolonged the average maintenance time of the Nord Stream.

“The situation is critically aggravated by the restrictions and sanctions imposed against our country,” the Kremlin spokesman continued. 

Russian state media reported Monday that the turbine recently serviced in Canada by Siemens Energy AG had finally received export paperwork that will allow it to be shipped from Germany to Helsinki, Finland. 

Nord Stream’s upcoming capacity declines sent Wholesale European NatGas futures up 12% to 196 euros. Prices have jumped more than 20% in two sessions and are near highs seen last winter at more than 200 euros.  

EU Natgas prices are trading at an oil-barrel-equivalent price of $333…. 

Across the Atlantic, US NatGas futures extended gains, up more than 10% to $9.62, a 14-year high, amid concerns about hot weather and tight supplies.

“Although the magnitude and speed of recent natural gas price gains point to contributing non-fundamental market dynamics, supportive fundamentals are nonetheless the primary driver,” EBW Analytics Group wrote in a note to clients.

“Fundamentally, scorching hot weather is the predominant bullish driver,” the firm added.

There’s also reason to believe that tighter European supplies would result in more US LNG exports abroad. 

For more context, European NatGas 1m forward is trading at a massive $48 spread over front-month US NatGas futures – almost 5x its historical peak…

Europe’s energy crisis continues to worsen, and there is no immediate relief in sight as this coming winter could be a cold one. 

“This is not the end of Russia’s weaponization of natural gas flows, in our view, and there remain few near-term alternatives for even current reduced flows to the EU – lending [to] ongoing upside price risks,” RBC wrote last week in a note to clients.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Dr Paul Alexander

Novak Djokovic entered the US, played in the US Open in 2021, unvaccinated then, had COVID, recovered, the virus is now mild, the vaccine has shown to fail & ineffective & dangerous, but he can’t now?

This is just pure political bullshit, they lost! Fauci, Bourla (Pfizer), Bancel (Moderna), Francis Collins (COVID virus developer), Walensky (CDC idiot director), Ashish Jha (Biden’s idiot advisor)

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 26

Many who ridicule and slam and slander and try to hurt Novak, I hope he is reading this. You sit back Novak, many of them will be dead in time. They listened to the malfeasants Fauci and Francis Collins and Albert Bourla. There is an opportunity cost to this, you got your vaccinal antibodies but you damaged your natural immunity and opened the harm and death door to your self. An opportunity cost, you got one thing and lost another. Your safety.

They have no clue how vaccine injured they are. You guard your natural immunity and tell them shove their US Open up their asses, sideways! You never take those shots, your immune system if it can be bottled and sold, can make you a rich man. All of ours! You sit back. We tried to warn them!

They lost their malevolent scheme and we are no longer falling for it and they know it, parents are not vaccinating their < 5 year olds as was planned by the malfeasants. So they are in panic mode! Denying Novak to play is pure illogical, irrational, absurd, specious, non-sensical, unsound, ridiculous policy with no scientific justification. Every person I named above are pure idiots, morons of the highest order, the most stupid inane and vacuous corruptible people who have harmed the US in many ways, including causing many of our healthy people to commit suicide in the heights of the COVID lockdown lunacy. I pray nightly for our police and military who were mandated to take the fraud dangerous COVID gene shot for many in time will die, I tell you purely what you need to know, they will die and these people I named above know it! They caused it and will cause it and what they have done is unforgivable. It’s the cost of them doing business!

Every single COVID policy, from lockdowns to the COVID injection is a fraud and was a fraud and a lie and 100% they all knew it, many in Trump’s administration who started this. Now in Biden’s. Their actions, their policies, people like Fauci (who will soon use the age card to get you to not punish him for his wrongs) and Birx…no, no, no, we must punish them harshly once it is shown in proper inquiries that they caused deaths needlessly. We clean them out financially and jail them, jail as many as warranted!

SOURCE:

America embarrasses itself by barring unvaxxed Novak Djokovic from competing in US Open

end

1% FED INCREASE? ‘Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike’; but these reckless idiots poured trillions into the economy for COVID; people bought real estate and bitcoin with it

IMO the economy did not need the trillions, not even what Trump put in, none of it, if you pour trillions into the economy that cannot absorb it, what do you the FED, think will happen? You did this!

Dr. Paul Alexander
Jul 26

If you shut the economy down and people were not working, had no where to go, and then you flooded it with money, with all the pent up stay home etc., what did they expect would happen? I even argue billions of the COVID relief money was stolen and into the pockets of high level people e.g. ministers, hospital CEOs etc., directly or indirectly, in congress of houses of parliament…and I do not mean by common petty thief fraudsters. This was a ‘get rich scheme’.

‘Biggest fraud in a generation’: The looting of the Covid relief plan known as PPP

Yes, in the US, in Canada, those high level people are some of the savviest thieves around. They are there to benefit them and family and friends and if they wish to challenge me, allow us to have an audit of every dollar in COVID relief. Allow us to audit every UKRAINE contract, let us see how many government people children and friends etc. are on those contracts.

SOURCE 1:

Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike

SOURCE 2:

Difficulty Paying Bills Tops Pandemic High in US Census Survey

end

end

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

We are worse than a recession: we are heading into a huge depression

(zerohedge)

“We Are In A Very Critical Moment”: IMF Cuts Global GDP, Raises Inflation Outlook, Warns “World Teetering On Edge Of Recession”

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 09:51 AM

The IMF slashed its global growth forecasts for the third quarter in a row, while raising its projections for inflation (i.e., stagflation is here), warning that the risks to the economic outlook are “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside” and that the world “may soon be teetering on the edge” of recession.

The fund now expects global growth to slow to 3.2% in 2022, down 0.4% from its April estimate, down from 4.4% in January, and roughly half the pace of last year’s expansion. In 2023, global growth is set to weaken further to 2.9%, but of course even shoeshine boys now know that 2023 will be a year of global central bank-sparked recessson. Compared with April’s projections, the new estimates are each more than 1 percentage point lower.

Focusing on key regions, the IMF now sees the Eurozone growing 2.6% in 2022, down from 2.8% in April, and expects 2023 growth to be just 1.2%, down from 2.3% in April. As for the US, the IMF expects the economy to slow to just 2.3% in 2022, down 1.4% from the April forecast, and growth is expected to come to a crawl in 2023 at just 1.0%, down more than half from 2.3% during the IMF’s previous forecast as soaring inflation eats away at households’ ability to buy goods and services, consumption ebbs and the Federal Reserve’s historically aggressive monetary tightening campaign begins to bite.

While the growth-outlook downgrades were broad, but the projection for US expansion took the biggest hit, with the IMF cutting it by 1.4 percentage points relative to the April estimate to 2.3% because of lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy. The forecast for 0.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis “will make it increasingly challenging to avoid a recession,” according to the IMF.

While the IMF is still forecasting positive growth, that will do little to quell rising concern of receding expansion or even outright recession in major economies as accelerating price increases eat away at incomes, savings and profits.

At the same time, global inflation is likely to intensify, with the IMF raising its forecasts for this year and next by nearly a full percentage point to 8.3% and 5.7%, respectively. So yes: stagflationary recession here we come.

Some more key findings:

  • The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% 2022 (April WEO view 3 6%). In 2023, global output is seeing growing by just 2.9%.
  • Lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power, and tighter monetary policy drove a downward revision of 1.4ppts in the United States.
  • In China further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1 1ppts.
  • in Europe, significant downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy.
  • Inflation is anticipated to reach 6.6% (April WEO view 5.7%) in advanced economies and 9.5% (April WEO view 8.7%) in emerging market and developing economies this year
  • With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs but delay will only exacerbate them

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s top economist, warned in an interview with the FT that it will also be an environment that tests the “mettle” of central banks around the world to continue raising interest rates in a bid to restore price stability even if the economy is slowing,

“We are in a very critical moment here,” he said. “It’s easy to cool off the economy when the economy is running hot. It’s much harder to reduce inflation when the economy is close to a recession.”

“The outlook has darkened significantly since April. The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one,” Gourinchas said in a blog accompanying the release of the update.

Once adjusted for inflation, “real” GDP growth in the US of only 0.6% on a year-over-year basis is expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. “It doesn’t take much to knock the economy off into something that you might call a technical recession”, Gourinchas said.

He added that emerging markets had become a chief concern, as the Fed’s tightening cycle pushes up borrowing costs globally. While “disorderly” financial market conditions had not yet taken root, he said, the big wild card was just how much additional pressure economies can withstand.

Emerging markets are likely to come under even more intense pressure should the fund’s alternative scenario of a sharp drop in Russia’s oil and gas exports come to pass, with inflation expectations mounting and central banks forced to tighten monetary policy even more aggressively.

Under those circumstances, global growth is forecast to decline in 2022 and 2023 to just 2.6 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. According to the fund, it has fallen below 2 per cent just five times since the 1970s.

Meanwhile, patting itself on the back for finally getting something right, the fund said that the risks the fund outlined in the April edition of the World Economic Outlook are materializing. Such dangers include a worsening of the war in Ukraine, escalation of sanctions on Russia, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in China, renewed Covid-19 flare-ups and an inflation wave that’s forcing central banks to raise interest rates.

And the risks to the revised outlook “are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside,” it said. Among the plethora of concerns is the potential for “a sudden stop” of European gas imports from Russia due to the war, more persistent inflation and a further escalation of a property crisis in China

end

A very important read..

Tom Luongo

Luongo: None Dare Call It A Recession Lest The Democrats Lose The Mid-Terms

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

When all you have left is managing narratives, managing narratives becomes a full time job…

This is where The Davos Crowd is today– just before the next Fed rate hike and just over three months out from the US mid-term elections.

It doesn’t matter the subject anymore, everything is managed, massaged, wheedled or cajoled into a convenient definition which serves some aspect of the Davos agenda. Last week it was blaming Russia for the West’s financial problems – food and energy shortages forcing the ECB to raise rates.

This week we’re going to be redefining a ‘recession’ and shifting the blame for it to the Federal Reserve.

Treasury Secretary cum Vice President Janet Yellen prepped the stage last week, using her gravitas (*snort*) to proclaim that she “doesn’t see a recession” on the horizon. Now the O’Biden administration is redefining recession away from the technical definition of two straight quarters of negative GDP growth.

While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle.

I could spend a thousand words picking apart the faults in this one sentence but I’m not going to because that would give this credence far beyond what it deserves.

Since Lehman Bros. fell in 2008 and Ben Bernanke *cough* saved the world in 2009 we’ve avoided a technical recession for now 13 years. Obama was re-elected on this narrative.

Easy money and ZIRP — Zero-bound Interest Rate Policy — kept the US from printing those dreaded two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Now, when that condition can no longer be avoided what are we expected to swallow?

The redefinition of a recession into whatever technobabble worthy of an episode of Star Trek comes out of the mouths of official smart people known as ‘economists.’

This is obviously just another political tool to appeal to middle-class midwits who still want to believe Trump is the devil, Fauci is the High Priest of Science and Democrats aren’t communists so they can feel smart and justify voting for more beatings until morale improves.

This “Blame the Fed” tactic began with Lizzie Slapaho out there braying on about FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell during last month’s Senate testimony:

“What’s worse than high inflation and low unemployment?” asked Senator Elizabeth Warren as the Fed chief gave congressional testimony last month.

“It’s high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work…. I hope you’ll reconsider that,” she added, “before you drive this economy off a cliff.

As Zerohedge points on in the article linked above it’s now those same expert ‘economists’ who have become experts in domestic politics, assisting Davos and the Democrats in constructing this narrative.

What’s already begun is a series of headlines to manufacture consent that the Democrats’ chief rival, Powell and the Fed, are to blame for this ‘not-a-recession’ and not the O’Biden policies and the trillions of spending they unleashed.

That spending plus the unprecedented attack on supply chains for basic goods like food and energy by the West to ‘starve Russia of its war machine’ has created a situation where inflation is endemic, not affected much, if at all, by Fed interest rate policy.

What’s hilarious about this is, when you stop and think about it, it’s been the Fed that has blunted some of the worst effects of all of this by beginning stealth tightening last year and carrying through with real tightening this year.

That sterilized nearly $2 trillion within its Reverse Repo facility. Imagine what inflation would be if those yesterday dollars were chasing today’s fewer goods?

Recession itself is a euphemism. It was created during the stagflationary period of the 1970’s to soften the psychological blow of the failure of Keynesian economic theories then. Back then the idea of high unemployment and high inflation was not possible. The Phillips Curve ruled in the minds of the experts.

And yet there we were with double-digit inflation and miserable unemployment. Instead of coming clean and calling it what it was, an inflationary depression, we invented new terms recession and stagflation, because we’re all commies Keynesians now.

Depression got redefined as a 10% drop in GDP, which, thanks to countercyclical government spending and accommodative central bank policy, would never happen again, at least statistically.

And thus, Management of Perspective Economics (MOPE) was born.

I wrote about MOPE in the early days of the 2020 election steal.

{MOPE} is a combination mal-educated traders and investment advisers, corporate interests, government corruption actively massaging the data and a media which saturates the airwaves with patent nonsense from ‘experts’ who interpret what everything means for us.

This is the architecture of MOPE.

Unfortunately, each 4 year cycle of lies and money printing invariably ends in a serio-comic repudiation of the whole MOPE strategy as markets spasm and no one can ever tell us why it happened?

Around the time of elections MOPE becomes the main weapon of MOPP — Mgt. of Perspective Politics. And the clear MOPP strategy for this year’s mid-terms is ‘If you are miserable, Blame the Fed.’

But, honestly, that’s a losing strategy. Most people have no idea what the Fed is or why raising interest rates now is bad, nor will they care. They have no control over the Fed, but they do have control over their vote.

Well, nominally.

So, they will lash out at the party in power because that’s what they can do. And even if you do convince them that Powell is to blame they will simply ask the question, “Then why did you reappoint him?”

This is the single most asked question I get whenever I start presenting my argument that the Fed and the O’Biden administration are at loggerheads. The answer is simple, Biden had no choice because he didn’t have the votes in the Senate.

And why do you think that is? Y’all know my answer to that.

To me, this part is actually true. The Fed is fighting the O’Biden administration (and Davos), working to secure the worst mid-term blowout loss for the Democrats since Newt Gringrich became a household name in 1994.

It’s not a hard sell here. Because people aren’t nearly as dumb as our media treats them. They understand cause and effect. Biden entered office with gas around $1.85 a gallon. Now it’s back down to $4.00 after going to $5.00.

And somehow Biden should be praised for stopping it from going to $6.00? If the Fed is tightening and that’s causing a recession then doesn’t the Fed get some of the credit for bringing down gas prices?

I know logic is an advanced skill these days but this isn’t that tough to understand.

The political messaging of blaming the Fed for the recession simply isn’t going to work. It’s the fever dream of people who have been sniffing their own farts inside of the Beltway echo chamber for too long.

It’s not a strategy, it’s anoxia.

It’s too complicated, too fraught with inconsistencies and frankly not relevant to people’s lived experiences.

Americans are angry. They know they have been and continue to be lied to. What they want more than anything else is for someone, ANYONE, to tell them the truth. If Davos is still backing the Democrats rather than shifting behind the GOP establishment then they are in worse shape than even I think they are.

This week we’re set to get a flood of bad economic data. Inflation is still rising. Keynesian orthodoxy demands the Fed raise until inflation moderates.

Either we’re Keynesian or we aren’t Lizzie, which one is it?

Is the Fed supposed to be politicized or independent?

This is the Catch-22 of MOPP. At some point you begin contradicting yourself to the point where even the ‘rubes in the bicoastal suburbs’ can smell the bullshit.

We here in ‘flyover country’ got used to the smell a long time ago.

But it doesn’t matter. The anger is palpable. It won’t be slaked by blame shifting.

So where are we today?

The Fed is due to raise rates at least another 75 basic points, to 2.25%. After the ECB ‘shocked’ markets with 50 basis points last week, I won’t be surprised if the Fed goes 100.

But I’m not banking on that. Powell has all the cards to play here. He has another meeting before the mid-terms. His stated goal is 4% by year end. He’s got plenty of options now to get to that target.

And every time inflation comes in hotter than expected he’s got the ammunition to go bigger.

And whose ox gets gored when that happens? Europe’s zombie banks who have exactly zero friends in the world now outside of Europe.

Because this time, unlike in 2018, Powell has the tools in place — SOFR, mainly — to make these rate hikes stick by decoupling US bank stress from that of Europe.

Hiking by 100 (aping the Bank of Canada who sent a stern warning to TrueDOH!) would further underscore my argument that the Fed is raising rates to break the ECB, Europe’s banks and the offshore (Eurodollar) markets. If inflation gets tamed in the process, that’s nice, but it’s not the primary goal.

Davos wants an end to the commercial banks, putting all the power in the hands of the central banks, through CBDCs. The Fed and those it represents do not want that.

And given the choice between a recession in the US while scaling back US dollar diplomacy and collapsing into the Eurotrash Communism promulgated by the WEF and Davos, I’m taking the over on the Fed going on the offensive.

Davos is trying to manufacture recession talk prematurely by attacking the price of oil. Yellen wants a price cap in place by year end to limit the money flowing into the Russian treasury.

Davos’ obvious next play is a war on oil to crush its opposition and create cover for the collapse of the European banking system just over the horizon.

There’s been a real disconnect between the futures price action and the action in the spot market. We had a collapse in Brent crude futures on Friday after the EU announced a mild repeal of oil and food sanctions on Russia which prompted volatility into the weekly close and with this week’s open on thin trading volumes.

That’s the best example of MOPE I can give you here, painting the tape into the weekly close based on a headline that promised nothing and said less.

So, the markets are trying to scream “demand destruction” into the hurricane of rising oil demand in a tight market now happy to trade in currencies other than the dollar to buy that oil.

This strategy will have just as much success as Democrats trying to blame the Fed for the inflationary depression they unleashed with their trillions in COVID spending and aggressive hounding of the oil producers while people struggle to put food on the table or afford the gas to get to work.

Last time I checked, shouting into a hurricane was kinda stupid. I should know, I live in Florida.

The Fed’s aggressive play against Europe is already producing the expected results. After the ECB capitulated last week, US assets, both stocks and bonds, rallied into the weekly close. The 10-year note was down 25 bps and the Dow Jones put in a technically significant close above recent highs.

The Dow doesn’t have to rally here, just hold the most recent bottom to be a winner as things begin to unravel in Europe.

I’m not disputing the idea that there’s not economic dislocation on the horizon. There is. It’s epicenter will be Europe, not the US. That will insulate us and the Fed from the worst of the fallout. Davos‘ only play now is to create as much chaos as possible to take down anyone who stands in their path before the Democrats get blown away in that hurricane I talked about.

The Democrats are happy to burn the country to the ground, since they are now officially traitors to the country after 18 months of pure, unadulterated economic and cultural vandalism. They keep telling us it’s all for the greater good… theirs, not yours. And while you are mostly still free to complain about it privately…

Whatever you do, just don’t call it a recession.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you like calling things by their real names

END

Inflation Rate – By Country

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:04 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

Interesting comparison

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate-

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

Oh my goodness we (Canada) are in trouble:  Trudeau plans to slash Canadian fertilizer use similar to Netherlands and Sri Lanka

(Jaeger/Post Millenial)

Trudeau Plans To Slash Canadian Fertilizer Use In Similar Move To Netherlands

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Jarryd Jaeger via The Post Millennial,

Over the past few weeks, farmers across the Netherlands have vehemently turned up in droves to protest the government’s plan to reduce nitrous oxide emissions, arguing it would have disastrous consequences for their business, and eventually, consumers.

The source of their anger is a policy that is not unlike one which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is seeking to implement in Canada.

In 2020, the Trudeau Liberals announced that their goal was to reduce emissions from fertilizer, a major producer of nitrous oxide, by 50 percent over the next eight years.

Fertilizer Canada slammed the government’s “short-sighted approach,” arguing that reducing nitrogen fertilizer use “will have considerable impact on Canadian farmers’ incomes and reduce overall Canadian exports and GDP.”

In a report compiled by Meyers Norris Penny (MNP), they suggest that regulated fertilizer reduction could cost Canadian farmers $48 billion by 2030 and reduce crop sizes

By this time, “yield gaps for three major crops are estimated at 23.6 bushels per acre per year for canola, 67.9 bushels per acre per year for corn, and 36.1 bushels per acre per year for spring wheat.”

As the Toronto Sun reports, fertilizer is typically the most expensive cost for farmers, and they tend to use only as much as is needed.

Under the plan, farmers will likely be forced to move to using costlier “greener” fertilizer, which in turn translates to higher prices for consumers.

Read more here…

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

WHO Declares Monkeypox “Global Emergency” After Vaccine Approved by EMA for Europe – Outbreaks are Only in Countries That Injected Their Citizens with Pfizer COVID Shots

July 25, 2022 1:01 pm

The roll out of the Monkeypox “Plandemic” has been carefully planned and coordinated, much like the COVID Plandemic of 2020, including having simulations on how this “plandemic” will evolve, much like the 2019 Event 201 which simulated, with almost precision accuracy, how the COVID plandemic would evolve. This past weekend the World Health Organization officially declared the “monkeypox outbreak” a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). An important event had to occur before this announcement, however, and that happened on Friday last week, when the European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved Bavarian Nordic Smallpox/Monkeypox vaccine for distribution in Europe, so that Big Pharma can continue reaping windfall profits from vaccines that are supposed to stop “plandemics.” This vaccine, while approved by the FDA in the US and now by the EMA in Europe, is largely untested in the public, and there were very serious issues with rates of heart disease in the clinical trials, which are actually higher than the rates of heart disease for the experimental COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. The World Health Organization has acknowledged that the vaccine is mostly untested, and that those being injected with the vaccine now are part of a “clinical study” for the purpose of data collecting so that researchers can learn more about the “effectiveness of the vaccine.” And perhaps the most interesting aspect of this planned and coordinated MonkeyPox “outbreak” was reported by The Exposé yesterday, where their investigation revealed that the only countries where these “outbreaks” of MonkeyPox are happening are only in countries where the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine has been injected into the citizens of those countries in mass vaccination campaigns. Russia and China, therefore, are allegedly not seeing these MonkeyPox “outbreaks,” and “coincidentally” they did not mass vaccinate their populations with American-made Pfizer COVID vaccines, but used their own, locally produced, COVID vaccines.

Read More…


Pandemic Creates New Billionaire Every 30 Hours — Now A Million People Could Fall Into Extreme Poverty At Same Rate In 2022

July 25, 2022 2:17 pm

For every new billionaire created during the pandemic — one every 30 hours — nearly a million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2022 at nearly the same rate, reveals a new Oxfam brief today. “Profiting from Pain” is published as the World Economic Forum in Davos takes place for the first time face-to-face since COVID-19, a period during which billionaires have enjoyed a huge boost to their fortunes. In Canada, the wealth of billionaires has increased by 57.1 per cent since the beginning of the pandemic, in March 2020. The 41 richest billionaires own as much as the poorest 40 per cent of Canadians. “Billionaires gathered in Davos have enjoyed an obscene surge in their fortunes over the last two years. The pandemic and now the steep rise in food and energy prices have been a bonanza for the wealthiest, while millions of people face hunger and poverty as the cost living shoots up,” said Ian Thomson, manager of policy for Oxfam Canada. The brief shows that 573 people became new billionaires during the pandemic, at the rate of one every 30 hours. We expect this year that 263 million more people will crash into extreme poverty, at a rate of a million people every 33 hours. Billionaires’ wealth has risen more in the first 24 months of COVID-19 than in 23 years combined. The total wealth of the world’s billionaires is now equivalent to 13.9 per cent of global GDP. This is a three-fold increase (up from 4.4 per cent) in 2000.

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(MAREY)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Idiotic move!!

Biden To Sell Additional 20 Million Barrels Of Oil From Strategic Reserve Just Ahead Of The Midterms

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 12:12 PM

Over the past three months, the Biden admin – desperate to lower the price of gasoline and avoid a crushing defeat for the Democrats in the midterms – has been selling roughly 1 million barrels a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has been drained by 125 million barrels so far in 2022, with nearly 70 million barrels already delivered to purchasers including several million going to China, roughly two thirds on the way to the original stated goal of 180 million barrels in SPR release (it is still unclear how Biden getting crushed in the polls amounts to an “emergency”).

But with oil still stubbornly sticky and the midterms looming, the White House found itself at a loss how to lower gas prices further – without of course actually increasing domestic US production as that would mean also losing the progressive/socialist/green-fanatic vote. Which is why on Tuesday morning, the Biden administration said it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held in hollowed-out salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, as part of the previous plan to tap the facility to lower oil prices, and bringing total sales to 200 million. The sales will take place in September and October, and are set to conclude just days before the November midterm elections. It wasn’t clear how much of the incremental barrels will go to China.

A senior administration official told reporters that the SPR releases have been a “supply lifeline” to oil and refining companies as the industry continues efforts to get oil production back online after declines during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. What he meant is that the SPR releases have been the only thing that has prevented Biden’s approval rating – already record low – from going negative.

The official also said that replenishment of the SPR – which of course will have to buy a massive 200 million barrels after the Democrats are crushed in the midterms – will take place after fiscal 2023, which ends in Sept 2022, meaning that with traders anticipating what is about to be the biggest telegraphed oil purchase order in history, the US may well end up paying hundreds of dollars per barrel.

One can only hope that China doesn’t invade Taiwan when the SPR is at its current level, the lowest since 1984.

Remarkably, the “energy experts” at the White House published some back of the envelope voodoo, according to which the 125 million barrel SPR drain has resulted in a 40 cent drop in gas prices. Well guess what happens when it comes time to replenish it.

News of the additional SPR release sent the price of oil from session highs to session lows…

… while sending the spread between WTI and Brent to $9, the widest since April 2020.

This is a good read: the all out commitment to destroy fossil fuels

(David Stockman)

David Stockman On The All-Out Commitment To Destroy Fossil Fuels… Will It Succeed?

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

Investment in all phases of the fossil energy industry has swooned sharply in recent years, owing to both government regulatory and tax subsidy interventions and also due to the takeover of the Wall Street energy narrative by the ESG (environmental, social and governance) nonsense.

Thus, as one astute analyst summarized,

The oil and gas industry, from extraction to transportation to refining, is no longer the profitable and financially stable enterprise it long was. Over the past decade, the industry’s profits have sagged, revenues and cash flows have withered, bankruptcies have abounded, stock prices have fallen, massive capital investments have been written off as worthless and fossil fuel investors have lost hundreds of billions of dollars.

Needless to say, this lagging investment trend began long before the COVID-19 pandemic crippled the global economy. Thus, over the last decade:

  • The stock market value of the four largest oil and gas majors plummeted by more than half;
  • In five of the past seven years the oil and gas industry ranked last among all sectors of the S&P 500, falling to less than 3% of the total market cap of the index compared to 16% a decade ago and 30%a few decades earlier.
  • Since 2015, industry analysts Hayes and Boone listed nearly 800 exploration and production companies, oilfield services, and midstream oil and gas companies that have filed for bankruptcy, with a debt load of more than $300 billion.
  • 2020 saw $145 billion of write-down of oil reserves and related assets, reflecting the diminishing value of the oil and gas sector.

The companies at the center of the US fracking boom have fared worse, consistently spending far more on drilling and production than they generated by selling oil and gas. According to The Wall Street Journal, large publicly traded oil and gas producers spent $1.18 trillion on drilling and pumping oil over the past decade, largely on fracking, while bringing in only $819 billion in operating cash flow, and this yawning gap was covered with rising debt and asset sales.

Overall, the picture could not be more obvious. Energy prices are going to continue rising because the fossil investment/supply development process has been short-circuited.

For instance, capital expenditure (CapEx) among the five largest oil and gas companies has nearly halved since 2013.

Specifically, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, Shell and BP spent $88.7 billion in 2019 to fund capital projects, down 47% from $165.9 billion in 2013. As a result, CapEx among these energy giants is at levels not seen since 2007.

Here is the cash price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil since March 31 when Biden announced his plan to release 1 million barrels per day from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

Spot Market Price of WTI Since March 31

Of course, the SPR release was merely a political sop.

What the Biden apparatchiks are really aiming to do is use $120 oil prices as an excuse to accelerate their promotion (at taxpayer expense) of high-cost green energy. As Biden recently put it:

Congress could help right away by passing clean energy tax credits and investments that I have proposed. A dozen CEOs of America’s largest utility companies told me earlier this year that my plan would reduce the average family’s annual utility bills by $500 and accelerate our transition from energy produced by autocrats.

What utter clap-trap. Autocrats? Like those in the Persian Gulf where Joe is heading on bended knee?

The fact is the global oil industry is a wonder of free markets, the OPEC cartel notwithstanding. Supply and demand rule – even if on the margin the big Persian Gulf producers have some discretion over the rate at which they draw down their underground hydrocarbon reserves.

So “autocrats” have nothing to do with it. Not Putin or any of the others.

What’s really in play here is the all-out commitment of the Biden Administration to destroy the fossil fuel industry in the name of preventing a climate catastrophe that is pure fiction.

*  *  *

Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare… How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This just-released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.

END

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

SRI LANKA

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0137 DOWN  0.0086 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON 

USA/ YEN 136.70   UP 0.291 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1987 DOWN   0.0067

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 19.59 POINTS UP  0.60%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 342,94 PTS OR 1.67% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.27%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 342.94 PTS OR  1.67% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.05 PTS UP 0.83% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.27% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 44.04 OR 0.16%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1717.75

silver:$18.47

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 106.97  UP 0.62  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.03%  DOWN11  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.186% DOWN 1     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11%// DOWN 12   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.34  DOWN 5   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.9255% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0123  DOWN  .01009    or 101 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.64 UP 0.231  OR YEN DOWN 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2026  DOWN  0.0031 OR  31 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0033 OR 33 BASIS pts  to 1.2884

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7628  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7610

TURKISH LIRA:  17.85  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.186

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.761% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.999 DOWN 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.00 UP 65   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 3.91 PTS OR  0.05%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 103.20  POINTS OR 0.28%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 25.93 PTS OR 0.42% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.10 OR 0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 213.99 PTS OR  0.91%

WTI Oil price 96.58   12: EST

Brent Oil:  105.29  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.32  DOWN 2  AND 20/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.9255

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0125 DOWN .0097     OR  97 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2028 DOWN .0026  or  26 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.76  UP 0.352//YEN DOWN 35 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2888 UP 0.0037 (CDN dollar DOWN 37  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 94.99

Brent OIL:  104.12

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.807 DOWN 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.991  DOWN 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.86

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.55   DOWN 2 AND   44/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 228.50 PTS OR 0.71 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 241.52 PTS OR 1.96%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.03 UP 1.77 PTS (7.15)%

GLD: 160.04 DOWN .20 PTS OR 0.12%

SLV/ 17.16 UP 18 CENTS OR 1.06%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Crypto, & Yield Curve Tumble As ‘Strong Consumer’ Narrative Crushed

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Walmart can’t get rid of its excess inventory, MacDonald’s is seeing lower income customers ‘trade down’, Pulte Homes said that home order cancellations have doubled in the last 30-60 days, new home sales crashed and median prices plunged, and consumer confidence tumbled.

But apart from that, the consumer is strong and the economy is definitely not in recession… if you believe the politicians and elites.

The ‘r’-word is coming…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1546152848819232768&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-crypto-yield-curve-tumble-strong-consumer-narrative-crushed&sessionId=55afb252402a8f925604e6b83fcd161fa3dd8b65&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

Like the message to 10% of Shopify staff today, here’s what we say to the elites…

Nasdaq led the charge lower today but all the majors were red on the day…

We note that the rebound off the mid-June lows topped out after the S&P tagged 4,000 and since then has faded fast…

The short-squeeze is over as “most shorted” stocks are down 3 straight days…

Source: Bloomberg

This week has seen Energy (oil is down?) and Utes outperform while Discretionary and Tech are the ugliest horses in the glue factory…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were higher in yield across the curve today with the short-end underperforming (2Y +5bps, 30Y +1bps). NOTE that yields reversed their overnight trend perfectly at the US cash equity open…

Source: Bloomberg

The Treasury curve flattened further today with 2s10s at its most inverted since Aug 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

The much-watched 3m10Y spread is collapsing fast – if that inverts, there will be no excuses left (apart from changing the definition of ‘recession’… oh wait…)

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve is pricing in a 13% chance of a 100bps hike tomorrow and a 35% chance of 75bps in Sept…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied today amid Euro weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos extended yesterday’s losses overnight after Coinbase SEC-probe headlines. Bitcoin fell back below $21k and Ethereum back below $1400…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower today but held above $1700…

US NatGas prices surged today to 14-year highs, topping $9 once again… (NG is up from $5.22 to $9.42 in 3 weeks)

…as EU NatGas prices continued to soar…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude slipped back below $95…

The WTI-Brent spread has crashed to extremes, wider than the March peak when Putin invaded (some suggest this is reflective of US domestic economic weakness)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the market is now pricing in a Fed pivot in Dec 2022… and implying that rates will not be back above that terminal rate for at least a decade…

Source: Bloomberg

Does anyone think that is a sustainable situation?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slowed (Marginally) In May

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Analysts expected Case-Shiller Home Price acceleration to slow modestly in May (the latest available data in this heavily lagged and smoothed data set) and they were right but the slowdown is still almost comedic.

The 20-City Composite index rose 1.32% MoM (less than the +1.50% exp) and is up ‘just’ 20.50% YoY (down from 21.22% YoY in April). The headline national average price index rose 19.75% YoY in May…

Source: Bloomberg

For some context, the 20-City Composite Home Price Index has not had a down-month since – drum roll please – March 2012.

“Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement

“Mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that was ongoing as our May data were gathered,” he added. 

“Accordingly, a more-challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer.”

Finally, we note that between soaring rates and home prices, affordability has reached near record lows. In fact the last time ‘affordability’ was here was June 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

Which perfectly top-ticked the last housing price bubble.

end

New Home Sales & Prices Plunged In June As Pulte Admits Order Cancellations Are Soaring

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 10:06 AM

Amid a plunge in homebuilder confidence, record low affordability, tumbling single-family starts and permits, and multi-decade lows in mortgage applications, it is no surprise that analysts expected a 5.9% MoM plunge in new home sales in June (especially after the surprise 10.7% MoM panic-buying surge in May). The consensus was right in direction but off in magnitude as new home sales plunged 8.1% MoM in June and the 10.7% surge in May was revised down to just +6.3% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

New Home Sales have fallen for 5 of the last 6 months and the last few months have seen a one-way street of downwards revisions…

The New Home Sales SAAR has tumbled to its lowest since the nadir of the COVID lockdowns in April 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

A potential silver lining is that inventory is finally on the rise with 9.3 months of supply seen in June, up from 8.4 in the prior month.

And the best news of all – the median new home price tumbled 9.5% MoM to $402,400

This was the biggest MoM drop in the median new home price since Sept 2014…

With median home price gains slowing dramatically YoY…

This new home sales print comes on the day that Pulte Homes admits buyers have hit a wall and is “dialling back” its spec-home-starts, noting that the homebuilder’s cancellation rate more than doubled to 15% in Q2 from 7% in the year-ago quarter, as soaring home prices and mortgage rates hinder affordability.

“The recent 200-basis point increase in mortgage rates has impacted affordability, but we continue to believe the desire for homeownership is high and the long-term outlook for housing remains positive,” said CEO and President Ryan Marshall.

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably perhaps was Marshall’s admission that the uptick in cancellations has been in the last 30-60 days, perhaps mirroring the plunge in homebuilder confidence (and Walmart) as the ‘strong American consumer’ appears to have pulled back into its shell.

END

Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As ‘Hope’ Hits 9-Year-Low

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 10:12 AM

While many other sentiment measures are breaking below COVID lows (UMich at multi-decade record lows), The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure has somehow managed to hold things together with Present Situation sentiment seemingly defying the gravity of the shitshow that many Americans are facing in the real world. The headline print fell more than expected (from 98.4 to 95.7 (97.0 exp) driven by – as we suggested – a slap back to reality for ‘Present Situation’ which plunged from 147.2 to 141.3. Expectations also slipped further in July (from 66.4 to 65.3)…

Source: Bloomberg

While the headline remains above COVID lows albeit at its lowest level since Feb 20921 (and Present Situation remains completely blind to reality still), this is the lowest ‘Expectations’ print since March 2013.

“Concerns about inflation — rising gas and food prices, in particular — continued to weigh on consumers,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months,” she said.

Who can blame Americans for being un-confident, our adjusted US Misery Index is at its worst level since Jimmy Carter was president…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps President Biden’s record low approval rating (despite the recent drop in gas prices) is more broad-based than the administration cares to admit.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Trump Blasts Biden Over Soaring Prices, Says True Inflation Rate Is “Much, Much Higher” Than 9.1%

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump seared President Joe Biden over his handling of the inflationary wave hammering American households, telling rally-goers in Arizona, that the true rate of inflation is far higher than the official rate of 9.1 percent.Former President Donald Trump attends a rally in support of Arizona GOP candidates, in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Trump made the remarks at a Friday rally in Prescott Valley, where the former president was stumping on behalf of former TV anchor Kari Lake in her bid to become Arizona’s next governor in the upcoming GOP primary election.

During his speech, Trump touted his own record on the economy, including high job creation and low inflation.Former President Donald Trump gestures at a rally in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

‘The Worst Inflation’

Trump told rally-goers that under his tenure, “we had the greatest economy in the history of the world with no inflation,” while adding that “Biden created the worst inflation in 47 years.”

February 2017, the first full month of Trump in office, saw the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation gauge at 2.8 percent in annual terms. While the CPI measure fluctuated during his tenure, the highest it ever reached was 2.9 percent in July 2018, while in his final month in office, January 2021, inflation clocked in at 1.4 percent.

Inflation has climbed steadily under Biden, soaring 9.1 percent year-over-year in June 2022, a figure not seen in over 40 years.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” on July 24, that inflation in the United States has “probably” peaked, while acknowledging that factors “out of our control” like another war or pandemic could once again cause price growth to accelerate.President Joe Biden waves as he walks to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on July 20, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

‘War on American Energy’

While Trump did not go into detail as to the Biden policies that he thinks have sent inflation soaring, he did single out what he called “Biden’s war on American energy.”

Soaring energy prices have been one of the key contributing factors to inflation, accounting for around half of the headline inflation figureaccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Since taking office, Biden has signed a number of executive orders targeting the oil industry, such as revoking the Keystone XL pipeline permit, freezing new oil and gas drilling leases on federal lands and waters, and ending fossil fuel subsidies by certain agencies.

The price of gasoline is around double what it was when Biden took office, with the president variously blaming a lack of refining capacity, global supply shortfalls set against a sharp post-pandemic rebound in demand, the war in Ukraine, and corporate greed.

In a bid to lower gasoline prices, Biden has ordered the release of crude reserves from the national strategic reserve, called on U.S. refiners to boost output, and pushed OPEC to pump more oil.

Read more here…

END

Bloomberg reports that after Wednesday’s rise in Federal funds rate, they will have to ease back unless it wants to create a real panic across markets

(Reynolds/Bloomberg)

“The Fed Will Have To Ease Back, Unless It Wants To Create Real Panic Across Markets”

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 07:20 AM

By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

Risk Assets Are Hoping July Will Be Last Jumbo Fed Hike

The way yields and equities are dropping underscores the message from investors to the Fed: “You better slow down!”

The recession drumbeats grew louder after last week’s slump in US activity gauges and with rates traders pricing for the Fed rate to peak some time between November and February at about 3.3%. That’s going to make it very hard for the central bank to do anything but ease back, unless it wants to create real panic across markets.

The inflation-recession conundrum remains for the Fed, however, so such “tough love” can’t be ruled out. There’s been a strong undercurrent in Fedspeak and commentary from former Fed officials that the central bank has to be willing to risk recession to tame inflation if that’s what is needed.

Inflation data across major economies have cooled off a bit, relative to expectations, but the Fed may be reluctant to do much more than slow down to a 50bps/meeting-pace unless CPI readings suffer the sort of collapse seen across the rest of the economic indicators. After rates traders were well ahead of the Fed’s curve at the start of this cycle, that dynamic is close to flipping.

end

Shopify reports and its shares slump after major layoffs

(zerohedge)

Shopify Shares Slump After Reports Of Major Layoffs

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 08:50 AM

This morning sees yet another nail in the coffin of the “yeah but at least we have a strong labor market” narrative in the US as The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to an internal memo, Shopify is cutting roughly 1,000 workers, or 10% of its global workforce.

Founder and CEO Tobi Lütke said he had expected that surging e-commerce sales growth would last past the Covid-19 pandemic’s ebb.

“It’s now clear that bet didn’t pay off,” said Mr. Lütke in the letter, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

“Ultimately, placing this bet was my call to make and I got this wrong.”

The firm reports its quarterly earnings tomorrow.

SHOP shares are down over 11% in the pre-market…

Shopify’s job cuts are among the largest so far in a wave of layoffs and hiring freezes that is washing over technology companies.

So when does this 10% workforce layoff start to hit the BLS’ payrolls data?

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe the labor market is not so strong after all – when do we see the “million layoffs or more” that BofA has been worrying about.

end

This does not look good for the uSA economy: McDonald’s customers are trading down as “combos” increasingly unaffordable

(zerohedge)

State Of The US Consumer: McDonald’s Customers Trading Down, Buy Value Items As Combos Increasingly Unaffordable

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 12:45 PM

McDonald’s Corp. is one of the first major restaurant chains to report this earnings season and offered a grim warning about inflation and consumers. 

Same-store sales increased 9.7% in the second quarter versus a year ago. Wall Street analysts were expecting 7.5%, according to Bloomberg data. US store sales rose 3.7%, while analysts expected a 3% increase. Adjusted profit came in above estimates, at $2.55 a share, compared with an estimate of $2.46.

Price hikes and value offerings supported US sales growth. 

“The McDonald’s System continues to demonstrate strength and resiliency,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said.

“Our second quarter performance reflects outstanding execution against our Accelerating the Arches strategy. By focusing on our customers and crew, enabled by a rapidly growing digital capability, we delivered global comparable sales growth of nearly 10%.”

Despite beating on sales due to price hikes and value menu items, McDonald’s said inflationary pressures would continue to impact margins for the remainder of the year due to the souring macroeconomic conditions.

McDonald’s executive said wage inflation and higher energy costs are impacting margins. The executive said food and paper costs are up 12-14% for the year and warned that macro uncertainty has increased over the year’s first half. 

In April, the company said customers traded down for less expensive menu items. The executive repeated this and continued to say that lower-tier customers ditched combo meals for value offerings.

The biggest takeaway is the state of the consumer and one that is not as robust as the Biden administration touts. If consumers have to trade down combo meals for value items, that is troubling ahead of what some believe is a recession.

We have routinely pointed out consumers have maxed out their credit cards and drained personal savings amid the worst inflation in forty years. The latest evidence of a weakening consumer was news some AT&T subscribers couldn’t afford to pay their phone bills. 

And there’s also this from Stifel Financial Corp.’s managing director of consumer and retail, who recently told clients that their proprietary branded food “value” index showed consumers continue trading down top brands for generic ones. 

Our proprietary branded food “value” index supports our view that while prices are rising across the grocery store, consumers still view branded foods as a good value in relation to their cost.

The chart above tracks our value index over time and denotes consumers’ feelings about the value of branded food products currently – the index currently stands above 53%, below the rate during the height of the pandemic when shopping habits were disrupted, but generally in line with historical levels. We have been watching this closely and clearly the recent round of price increases at a time of increased inflation besetting the consumer has led to a shift down in this index.

We believe this recent move down and the potential for a further decline as more pricing takes hold at retail could presage an increase in elasticity for the industry. While we have only seen this on a limited basis so far, we believe it could start to accelerate, validating most of the large food companies that have built in more like historical levels of elasticity to be conservative.

The strong consumer narrative pushed by the Biden administration appears to be breaking. 

end

Weaker earnings is upon us

(Simon White)

The Drumbeat Of Weaker Earnings Is Getting More Urgent

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 12:26 PM

By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Analyst and Reporter

Earnings have contributed positively to S&P returns this year. That is about to change.

Earnings upgrades are easing, and we’re seeing more downgrades, which indicates further declines in earnings growth and the likelihood of an earnings recession by the end of this year.

The S&P is down 17% on the year, but it would be down closer to 25% if earnings had contributed no growth. But profit warnings are proliferating, with Walmart the latest to cut its outlook, citing concerns around food and fuel inflation.

Individual guidance, though, gives little predictive information for the market as a whole. Analysts’ earnings estimates tend to be overly optimistic and backwards looking. Forward earnings tend to rise even after a recession has begun, with analysts only cutting their estimates on average about 6-8 weeks after a downturn’s start.

It’s better to look at earnings downgrades versus upgrades in the aggregate. This is turning down and anticipates that earnings will continue to lose momentum and will soon be contracting on an annual basis. Sentiment is likely to continue to deteriorate.

The ratio of trailing 12-month earnings versus forward earnings one year ago gives us the degree of surprise in earnings. The ISM shows earnings will very likely keep under-delivering over the rest of this year at least.

The rise in the dollar also promises to be a headwind, although the relationship has weakened in recent years as the proportion of S&P 500 firms’ revenues from abroad has fallen.

Many firms used the pandemic to increase profit margins faster than ever before, so if firms are protective of these margins, equity prices would see more support than otherwise from falling earnings. That’s good for shareholders, if not for consumers.

Weaker earnings do not automatically translate into weaker prices, but it will be challenge for equities to stage a sustainable rally when earnings growth is weakening and margins are falling

END

MICROSOFT

MSFT Shares Slide After Top- & Bottom-Line Miss; Blames FX, Putin, & China

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 04:11 PM

Microsoft shares are extending the day’s losses after hours following a top- and bottom-line miss

  • Earnings: $2.23 per share, adjusted, vs. $2.29 per share as expected by analysts, according to Bloomberg.
  • Revenue: $51.87 billion, vs. $52.44 billion as expected by analysts, according to Bloomberg.

CEO Nadella offered some words of hope…

“We see real opportunity to help every customer in every industry use digital technology to overcome today’s challenges and emerge stronger,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“No company is better positioned than Microsoft to help organizations deliver on their digital imperative – so they can do more with less.”

Revenues were a miss across all the segments:

  • *MICROSOFT 4Q PRODUCTIVITY REV $16.60B, EST. $16.68B
  • *MICROSOFT 4Q MORE PERSONAL COMPUTING REV. $14.36B, EST. $14.67B
  • *MICROSOFT 4Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $20.91B, EST. $21.07B

The3 ‘Intelligent Cloud” – which includes the Azure public cloud for application hosting, SQL Server, Windows Server and enterprise services – was up 20% but still missed expectations.

The company said that Azure revenue grew 40%, 46% in constant currency, after analysts on average predicted a 43% standard growth rate and Microsoft guided for a constant-currency growth rate of roughly 47%.

“In a dynamic environment we saw strong demand, took share, and increased customer commitment to our cloud platform. Commercial bookings grew 25% and Microsoft Cloud revenue was $25 billion, up 28% year over year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

“As we begin a new fiscal year, we remain committed to balancing operational discipline with continued investments in key strategic areas to drive future growth.”

MSFT shares are down over 5% after-hours, trading at the lowest in six weeks…

As a reminder, Microsoft had already reduced its quarterly guidance for income and revenue because of changing foreign-exchange rates.

Microsoft really kitchen-sinked the blame-game for what drove the miss…

In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, evolving macroeconomic conditions and other unforeseen items had an impact on financial results beyond what was included in our forward-looking guidance provided on April 26, 2022.

  • Unfavorable foreign exchange rate movement within the quarter negatively impacted revenue and diluted earnings per share $(595) million and $(0.04), respectively. Additional details are provided in the Earnings Call Slides.
  • Extended production shutdowns in China that continued through May and a deteriorating PC market in June contributed to a negative impact on Windows OEM revenue of over $(300) million
  • Reductions in advertising spend contributed to a negative impact on LinkedIn as well as Search and news advertising revenue of over $(100) million
  • With the ongoing war in Ukraine, we made the decision to significantly scale down our operations in Russia. As a result, we recorded operating expenses of $126 million related to bad debt expense, asset impairments, and severance.
  • As part of a strategic realignment of our business groups, we recorded employee severance expenses of $113 million, excluding Russia

They didn’t blame Trump?

SWAMP STORIES

Figures! FBI sabotaged Hunter Biden evidence to derail its investigation according to a whistleblower

(zerohedge)

FBI Sabotaged Hunter Biden Evidence To Derail Investigation: Whistleblower

MONDAY, JUL 25, 2022 – 09:45 PM

Several FBI whistleblowers say that the agency’s probe into Hunter Biden was internally sabotaged during the 2020 election in order to derail the investigation, after agents wrongfully deemed verified evidence as “disinformation” to ignore.

According to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), agents investigating Hunter “opened an assessment which was used by an FBI headquarters team to improperly discredit negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation and caused investigative activity to cease,” adding that his office received “a significant number of protected communications from highly credible whistleblowers” regarding the investigation.

Grassley added that “verified and verifiable derogatory information on Hunter Biden was falsely labeled as disinformation,” according to the Washington Examiner.

FBI supervisory intelligence agent Brian Auten opened in August 2020 the assessment that was later used by the agency, according to the disclosures. One of the whistleblowers claimed the FBI assistant special agent in charge of the Washington field office, Timothy Thibault, shut down a line of inquiry into Hunter Biden in October 2020 despite some of the details being known to be true at the time.

A whistleblower also said Thibault “ordered closed” an “avenue of additional derogatory Hunter Biden reporting,” according to Grassley, even though “all of the reporting was either verified or verifiable via criminal search warrants.” The senator said Thibault “ordered the matter closed without providing a valid reason as required” and that FBI officials “subsequently attempted to improperly mark the matter in FBI systems so that it could not be opened in the future,” according to the disclosures.

The whistleblowers say investigators from FBI headquarters were “in communication with FBI agents responsible for the Hunter Biden information targeted by Mr. Auten’s assessment,” and that their findings on whether the claims were in fact disinformation were placed “in a restricted access sub-file” in September 2020, according to Grassley, who added that the disclosures “appear to indicate that there was a scheme in place among certain FBI officials to undermine derogatory information connected to Hunter Biden by falsely suggesting it was disinformation.

Grassley summarized the new allegations in a Monday letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray.

The Examiner notes that FBI agent Auten was involved in the Trump-Russia investigation, including interviewing Christopher Steele’s primary source, Igor Danchenko.

According to Grassley, the “volume and consistency” of the allegations regarding the handling of the Hunter Biden probe “substantiate their credibility.”

The assessment by Auten in August 2020 was opened the same month Grassley and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) received a briefing from the FBI “that purportedly related to our Biden investigation and a briefing for which the contents were later leaked in order to paint the investigation in a false light,” Grassley said. The senator said Senate Democrats asked for a briefing in July 2020 “from the very same FBI HQ team that discredited the derogatory Hunter Biden information.”

The FBI inquiry into Hunter Biden reportedly began as a tax investigation, then expanded into a scrutiny of potential money-laundering and foreign lobbying; the DOJ has declined to hand over investigative details. -Washington Examiner

Thibault, the FBI agent who allegedly quashed the Hunter probe, may have violated the Hatch act in 2020 after making posts on social media which were critical of then-president Donald Trump and former AG William Barr.

Also notable – Hunter had the numbers of several FBI agents in his iCloud contacts.

Joe Biden, top Democrats, and virtually the entire mainstream media dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop story as Russian disinformation when bombshell allegations from the New York Post emerged weeks before the 2020 election. In March 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a report claiming that figures tied to Russian intelligence promoted “misleading or unsubstantiated allegations” about Joe Biden.

Grassley to Garland and Wra… by Washington Examiner

END

Watch: Journalists Again Demand To Know Why Biden’s Doctor Is Hiding

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 01:47 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Reporters at the White House for a second day running demanded to know why Joe Biden’s physician is refusing to appear before them and answer questions about his health, breaking a precedent set by every other president before him.

Biden is holed up isolating, purportedly with COVID, in the White House, yet reporters are becoming frustrated with the administration’s lack of effort to update them.

COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha took the brunt of the backlash Monday with reports from Fox News, The New York Times, CBS News and Newsmax all demanding to know why the White House physician Colonel Kevin O’Connor is nowhere to be seen.

CBS News Radio White House correspondent Steven Portnoy asked “why the President’s personal physician is not here? Are you familiar with a reason? Has the President decided not to send his physician here to answer our questions the way that his predecessors have decided to send their physicians here?”

Jha attempted to brush off the topic, claiming that reporters have “heard every day from the President’s physician through his detailed accounting of his assessment, his plan.”

Portnoy pressed on, however, stating “Forgive me. There is a history here in this room of President’s physicians standing here to take questions, and in part, it’s because some of your colleagues in the medical profession do have questions and they’ve asked us to ask those questions about why the President’s doctor ordered him to stop taking Crestor & Eliquis.”

Portnoy continued, “You have done your best to communicate the answer that the President’s physician has given. But are you familiar with the reason why the President decided not to send his doctor out to answer questions?”

Again, there was no answer:

Fox News’ Peter Doocy continued the line of questioning, asking “is this a situation where Dr. O’Connor does not want to come and talk about the President’s health or where the President doesn’t want Dr. O’Connor talking about his health?” 

Again Jha did not have an answer, instead claiming that neither O’Conner nor Biden have said they don’t want the doctor to appear.

What are they hiding?

*  *  *

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King report

China plans real estate fund worth up to $44 billion for distressed sector, source says
China will launch a real estate fund to help property developers resolve a crippling debt crisis, aiming for a war chest of up to 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) in a bid to restore confidence in the industry, according to a state bank official with direct knowledge of the matter. The move would mark the first major step by the state to rescue the beleaguered property sector since the debt troubles became public last year…
    He said state-owned China Construction Bank will contribute 50 billion yuan into the 80 billion yuan fund, but the money will come from PBOC’s relending facility…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-plans-set-up-real-estate-fund-worth-up-44-bln-redd-2022-07-25/
 
The very reliable Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.19 in June; unchanged was consensus.  More importantly, May was revised to -0.19 from +0.01. This is the first back-to-back negative readings since the Covid Crisis appeared in early 2020.
 
The 3-month average of the Chicago National Activity Index is -0.04.  -0.30 has signaled recessions. 
 
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index sank to -22.6 from -17.7; -18.5 was consensus.  The Dallas Fed buried the lede, the ugly headline reading, in its Dallas Fed Business Activity Index report.
 
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook SurveyThe production index was largely unchanged at 3.8
    The new orders index remained negative at -9.2, down from -7.3 in June, suggesting a further decrease in demand… The general business activity index declined five points to -22.6. The company outlook index posted a fifth consecutive negative reading but moved up from -20.2 to -10.8. The outlook uncertainty index came off its two-year high of 43.7, falling to 33.7.  Labor market measures continued to indicate robust employment growth and longer workweeks. The employment index moved up three points to 17.9, a reading significantly above its series average of 7.7…  [Respondent comments below]
        The concerns of a looming recession have increased over the last month. With supply-chain issues continuing, the cost of raw materials remaining high… The economy is in shambles… November can’t get here fast enough.  We are starting to see weakness in incoming orders. We are preparing for a further slowdown but hoping for the best… https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2022/2207
 
Monday’s trading activity was the most boring session in months.
 
ESUs traded mostly in negative territory during Asian trading.  After a modest rally into the European open, ESUs sank to a session low at 3:20 ET.  ESUs and stocks then commenced a rally that intensified at 4:30 ET.  ESUs and stocks rallied until they hit their session highs at 7:21 ET. 
 
ESUs sank 34 handles by 9:38 ET.  The usual suspects then poured into ESUs and stocks.  ESUs jumped 20 handles by 9:55 ET.  But sellers returned; ESUs and stocks sank to new daily lows at 10:23 ET.  A five-wave rally then developed.  It peaked at 12:47 ET.  Fangs led the decline.  ESUs and stocks hit bottoms and new daily lows at 15:07 ET.  ESUs were manipulated 27.50 higher for the close.
 
The conflict between recession is good for stocks and those that disagree appeared again yesterday.
 
 
USUs traded mostly in positive territory during Asian trading.  They commenced a decline at 4:15 ET that persisted until 9:17 ET (140 31/32 low).  After an A-B-C rally that ended at 10:36 ET, USUs traded in a tight range until the close.
 
Russia to Cut Nord Stream Gas Flow in Ominous Sign for Winter… to about 20% of its capacity from 7 a.m. Moscow time on Wednesday, the Russian gas giant said in a statement…
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russia-steps-gas-spat-another-145904377.html
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The major equity indices, ex-Nasdaq, rallied modestly due to a late upward ESU manipulation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
More data that shows recession is nigh for the US
Fangs declined
Bonds declined
Energy commodities rallied sharply: Natgas +6%, WTI Oil +2.11%, Gasoline +4.94%
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is the Fang rally for Q2 results over?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3971.07
Previous session High/Low3975.30; 3943.46
 
@Redfin: Housing markets in northern California are cooling faster than anywhere else in the U.S. amid high mortgage rates and a faltering stock market. See the full ranking 👉 http://bit.ly/3zbmEx2
 
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has Q2 GDP at -1.6%.  The Street Q2 GDP consensus is 0.5%; the whisper is -0.3%.  The Atlanta Fed will update its Q2 GDP estimate tomorrow after June Inventories, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales, and New Home Sales (released today) are released. 
 
The WH has preemptively asserted that negative Q2 GDP, which would be two consecutive negative GDP reports, does not mean the US is in a recession.  This is technically accurate.  The NBER is the official arbiter of economic recession and growth.  However, American voters are the ultimate arbiter of recession and growth.  Secondly, another negative GDP report will generate the old ‘self-fulling prophesy’ – consumers and businesses will implement recessionary behavior and precautions, which will foment recession or intensify an existing recession.
 
By preemptively spinning an expected negative Q2 GDP report, the WH elicited attention and ridicule. 
 
@MonicaCrowley: The leftists are trying to change the definition of “recession” the way they tried to change the definition of “vaccine”
 
@EconguyRosie: Someone should save Janet Yellen further embarrassment and show her the chart on jobless claims, having surged to an 8-month high. The 50% run-up is a reliable recession indicator, too.
 
White House cyber office taps Google exec (and SJW)
https://www.axios.com/2022/07/25/white-house-cyber-office-camille-stewart-gloster
 
@CBSNews: President Biden’s COVID-19 symptoms have “almost completely resolved” as he takes his final course of Paxlovid for COVID-19 Monday, according to the president’s physician. The remaining symptoms are residual nasal congestion and a slightly hoarse voice.
 
A palpably feeble 79-year-old quickly overcoming very mild Covid symptoms should be a deathblow to the legions of Covid Cassandras.
 
ZH: Goldman on month-end pension rebalance: “our GS model estimates $9bn of US equities to SELL for month-end  https://zerohedge.com/markets/buyback-blackout-period-over-add-systematic-releveraging-and-there-11bn-vwap-demand-every
 
After the close, Walmart lowered its profits guidance for Q2 by 8-9% and 2023 by 10-12%.  The stock quickly sank 8.3%.  “Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of Q1. This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel…The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars…” 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-inc-provides-second-quarter-201800655.html
 
Should WMT be bought because the Fed will have to ease in 2023?  Target, Costco, and Kroger fell in concert with Walmart.
 
Biden (After the close): “We’re not gonna be in a recession” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1551658970972147714
 
Will the WH resurrect its inflation spin and apply to recession: No recession; then, it will be transitory?
 
@RNCResearch: In 2019, now-Biden economic advisor Jared Bernstein defined a recession as GDP “crossing zero.”  In the first quarter of 2022, GDP was -1.6%
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1551660584231473160
 
Today – Beaucoup real economy companies, including home managers/builders, report results.  Growth and inflation guidance should be very important.  Rumors about GOOL and MSFT’s results, due after the close, could impact afternoon trading.
 
ESUs and stocks were listless on Monday except for the manipulation during early European trading and the last-hour manipulation during NYSE trading.  Someone wants stocks higher.  If stocks sink on Walmart, it will be telling if someone rescues stocks with blatant manipulation.
 
We opined in Monday’s missive that this week is a very important week due to the FOMC, the peak of Q2 earnings season, and the Q2 GDP report on Thursday.  There will also be July performance gaming.
These factors will keep prudent investors and traders inert until more information appears.   The usual suspects will continue to play because they are conditioned seals; manipulators will do what they must.  The misguided will continue to buy stuff on the notion that recession will be good for stocks because the Fed will have to abort its tightening cycle and ease in 2023.
 
In bear markets, more big surprises occur on the downside.  Snap and Walmart are recent negative surprises.  There will be more.  SPUs are -18.25 and USUs are +19/32 at 20:45 ET on WMT.
 
Expected earnings: GM 1.31, UPS 3,15, GE .38, PHM 2.63, GLW .56, PCAR 1.83, MCD 2.47, KO .67, RTX 1.13, ADM 1.72, GOOGL 1.32, PNR 1.00, MMM 2.44, NVR 126.77, KMB 1.31, MDLZ .64, CB 3.62, ESS 3.55, EQR .86, UDR .57, TXN 2.12, V 1.75, MSFT 2.30, BXP 1.85, AMP 5.67
 
Expected economic data: May FHFA House Prices Index 1.5% m/m, May S&P CoreLogic 20-city home prices 1.5% m/m, 20.6% y/y; July Richmond Fed Mfg Index -17; July Conference Board Consumer Confidence 96.9; June New Home Sales 661k; 2-day FOMC Meeting commences
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3920; 100-day MA: 4133; 150-day MA: 4270; 200-day MA: 4353
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,587; 100-day MA: 32,774 150-day MA: 33,584; 200-day MA: 34,071
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4813.43 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4113.15 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3861.47 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3980.13 triggers a buy signal
 
@JonathanTurley: Schiff stripped away the pretense of subpoenaing Ginni Thomas about her messages to the White House. This is about her husband, not her support for the election challenges or what occurred on January 6th.  On a committee that was tasked with uncovering what occurred on January 6th, Schiff is now saying that the committee’s jurisdiction would extend to what the Supreme Court did a year later.  That is more than a case of “mission creep.” It is radical departure from past practices and could create dangerous precedent as members use such committees to investigate jurists on the motivations or communications leading to their opinions. It would constitute one of the most intrusive acts ever taken against the Court outside of a formal impeachment proceedingIt is a threat that should be universally condemned and immediately withdrawn…
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/07/24/schiff-the-committee-could-subpoena-ginni-thomas-about-justice-thomas/
 
Dems have opened the door for the GOP, if/when they take the house, to use committees to investigate and subpoena: FISA judges that approved illegal spying on Team Trump; Federal District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan who mistreated Gen. Flynn and others; DC Circuit Court Judges involved with Jan 6 sentencing and defense abuses, as well as judges and DAs that harassed Trump and his team/family.
 
Hunter Biden evidence wrongly labeled disinformation by FBI: Whistleblower
The FBI assistant special agent in charge of the Washington field office, Timothy Thibault, shut down a line of inquiry into Hunter Biden in October 2020 despite some of the details being known to be true at the time.  A whistleblower also said Thibault “ordered closed” an “avenue of additional derogatory Hunter Biden reporting,” according to Grassley, even though “all of the reporting was either verified or verifiable via criminal search warrants.” The senator said Thibault “ordered the matter closed without providing a valid reason as required” and that FBI officials “subsequently attempted to improperly mark the matter in FBI systems so that it could not be opened in the future,” according to the disclosures.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/whistleblowers-hunter-biden-wrongly-labeled-disinformation-fbi
 
‘Corrupted to their very core’: Whistleblowers say DOJ, FBI show political bias in investigations
“If these allegations are true and accurate, the Justice Department and FBI are – and have been – institutionally corrupted to their very core,” (GOP Sen.) Grassley wrote…
    “Washington Field Office Assistant Special Agent in Charge Timothy Thibault disregarded agency guidelines requiring substantial factual predication to trigger investigations.”…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/corrupted-their-very-core-whistleblowers-say-doj-fbi-show-political-bias
 
Al Gore blasted for ‘climate denier’-Uvalde shooting comparison: ‘A real sicko’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/al-gore-blasted-climate-denier-uvalde-shooting-comparison-real-sicko
 
Inconvenient Truth: The legacy media relentlessly labeled W Bush as a dummy when he ran against Gore – even though Bush had a much better academic record and higher standardized test scores!
 
Lee Zeldin attack: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN Sunday shows ignore assault on GOP lawmaker, NY gubernatorial candidate  https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1551718329513041922
 
Blots on a field? – A neuroscience image sleuth finds signs of fabrication in scores of Alzheimer’s articles, threatening a reigning theory of the disease (But ‘The Science’ is sacrosanct forever!)
    The authors “appeared to have composed figures by piecing together parts of photos from different experiments,” says Elisabeth Bik, a molecular biologist and well-known forensic image consultant. “The obtained experimental results might not have been the desired results, and that data might have been changed to … better fit a hypothesis.”…
    In his whistleblower report to NIH about Lesné’s research, Schrag made its scope and stakes clear: “[This] dossier is a fraction of the anomalies easily visible on review of the publicly accessible data,” he wrote. The suspect work “not only represents a substantial investment in [NIH] research support, but has been cited … thousands of times and thus has the potential to mislead an entire field of research.”…
    Selkoe’s bigger worry… is that the Lesné episode might further undercut public trust in science during a time of increasing skepticism and attacks. But scientists must show they can find and correct rare cases of apparent misconduct, he says. “We need to declare these examples and warn the world.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease
 
@MZHemingway: Interesting story about the Pritzkers, who are funding dangerous misinformation about males and females and their biological reality. The Billionaire Family Pushing Synthetic Sex Identities (SSI) https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/billionaire-family-pushing-synthetic-sex-identities-ssi-pritzkers
 
Treatment of Gender Dysphoria for Children and Adolescents
Based on the not be a treatment option currently available evidence, “encouraging mastectomy, ovariectomy, uterine extirpation, penile disablement, tracheal shave, the prescription of hormones which are out of line with the genetic make-up of the child, or puberty blockers, are all clinical practices which run an unacceptably high risk of doing harm.”…
    These guidelines do not apply to procedures or treatments for children or adolescents born with a genetically or biochemically verifiable currently available evidence disorder of sex development (DSD). These disorders include, but are not limited to, 46, XX DSD; 46, XY DSD; sex chromosome DSDs; XX or XY sex reversal; and ovotesticular disorder… (Physiological treatments have been utilized for decades with little fanfare, which is the appropriate and humane way to remedy these ailments.)  https://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2022/04/20220420-gender-dysphoria-guidance.pr.html
 
@townhallcom: Kamala Harris mentions an abortion case that she says describes “what this issue means to real people, including children.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1551607519788818437
    KAMALA: “The president and I take seriously…the health, the safety, and the well-being of the women of America, and that includes the women of Indiana.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1551609755763875841
     Meeting with Indiana state legislators about abortion, Kamala Harris laughs that she will “bid the press goodbye” and “get into the nitty-gritty of it allhttps://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1551604805918986241
 
We mentioned a few weeks ago, that there must be a very good reason that Team Obama-Biden is foisting the extremely unlikeable, patronizing, childishly cackling, and cringeworthy Kamala Harris on Americans.  Her appearance schedule is increasing despite her jaw-dropping inanities and guffaws.
 
Deeply Unpopular Kamala Harris Stepping in to Help with Statewide Races (on abortion rights)
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2022/07/25/kamala-harris-stepping-in-to-help-with-statewide-races-n2610777

 

Greg Hunter: Interviewing

See you TOMORROW

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