JULY 27/GOLD CLOSES UP $1.80 TO $1721.25 AND SILVER CLOSES UP 4 CENTS TO $18.67 WITH TWO MORE DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE//PLATINUM UP $9.20 TO $889.10//PALLADIUM DOWN $5.15 TO $2010.75/COMEX GOLD HAS ALMOST 30 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR METAL IN JULY//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//GAZPROM UPDATE: RUSSIA REDUCES FLOW FROM THEIR PREMIER PIPELINE TO EUROPE (GERMANY) TO 20%//GERMANY’S CHEMICAL GIANT BASF CURTAILS AMMONIA PLANT IN GERMANY WHICH WILL CAUSE MASSIVE DISTRUPTIONS IN THE FERTILIZER AND FOOD INDUSTRIES//HEZBOLLAH THREATENS ISRAEL RE THEIR GAS DISCOVERY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

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GOLD;  $1721.25 UP $1.80 

SILVER: $18.67 UP 4 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1734.40

SILVER: $19.11

We are now entering options expiry for Comex (tomorrow) and OTC/LBMA (Friday)

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,291 DOWN 314

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,880. UP 1270  

Platinum price: closing UP $4.40 to $889.10

Palladium price; closing DOWN $5.15  at $2010.75

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,717.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/26/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/28/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

JPMorgan stopped 30/30


661 C JP MORGAN 30
690 C ABN AMRO 29
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 30 30
MONTH TO DATE: 9,635

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY CONTRACT:  

30 NOTICES FOR 3000 OZ //0.0933 TONNES

total notices so far: 9635 contracts for 963,500 oz (29.968 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

34 NOTICES FILED FOR 170000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  4008 :  for 20,040,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $1.80 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 4 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 484.118 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A HUGE SIZED 1436  CONTRACTS TO 147,784   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.16 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.16) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 1217 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 445,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -17

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 18 days, total 15,897  contracts:  79.485 million oz  OR 4.416 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (884 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 79.485 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 79.485 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1436 DESPITE OUR  $0.16 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 200 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 445,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1236 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.180 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE..THE SPECS ARE GOING TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 34  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  170000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 15,223 CONTRACTS  TO 487,515 AND further from THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -949 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR TINY FALL IN PRICE OF $1.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.//WE HAD INITIATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION WHICH TOOK CARE OF ALL OF THE FALL AT COMEX.. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX IS ONE BIG FARCE

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY FALL IN PRICE OF   $1.60 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 10,939  OI CONTRACTS 34.024 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..WITH ALL THE LOSS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  4284  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,515

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,939 CONTRACTS  WITH 15,223 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4284 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,888 CONTRACTS OR 36.976 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4284) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (15,223): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  10,939 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION////SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS/ //.,4)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

112,859 CONTRACTS OR 11,285,900 OZ OR 351.03  TONNES 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6269 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 351.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  351.03/3550 x 100% TONNES  9.88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 351.03 TONNES (HUGE INCREASE FROM JUNE//WILL CLOSE IN ON THE RECORD EFP ISSUANCE IN MARCH 22//SURPASSED PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH NOV 21) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1436 CONTRACT OI TO 147,801 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 200  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1436  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1236   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.180 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.16

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.68 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 235.84 OR 1,13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 60.54 OR % 0.22.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.18%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7512//OFF SHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7480//    /Oil DOWN TO 96.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 105.42// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.68 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 235.84 OR 1.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 60.54 OR % 0.22.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.18%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,223 CONTRACTS TO 487,515 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL FALL OF $1.60  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4284 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4284 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :4284 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4284 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 11,888  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4284 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 15,223  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR TINY SIZED  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 1.60. TODAY, WAS THE INITIATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE ARE NOW ALSO WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE FARCE

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (29.987),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $1.60) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AND COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////ALL THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION//  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED LOSS  OF 36.976 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (29.987 TONNES)

WE HAD -949  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,939 CONTRACTS OR  1,093,900  OZ OR 34.024 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 214,534/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  246,463 / fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 27

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz120,395.031oz
Brinks
JPMorgan
Loomis
Manfra
46 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today30   notice(s)
3000 OZ
0.0933 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)6 contracts 
600 oz
0.0186 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9635 notices
963,500 OZ
29.968 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

i) out of Brinks:  16,464.870 oz

ii) out of JPMorgan:  102,386.913 oz

iii) out of Loomis: 1446.795 oz (45 kilobars)

iv)out of Manfra:  96.453  oz  1 kilobar 

total deposits: 0 oz

4 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks:  16,464.870 oz

ii) out of JPMorgan:  102,386.913 oz

iii) out of Loomis: 1446.795 oz (45 kilobars)

iv)out of Manfra:  96.453  oz  1 kilobar 

total withdrawals: 120,395.031 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:none

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 36 contracts having LOST  41 contracts . We had

41 notices filed on Monday so we GAINED 0  contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 41,811 contracts down to 78,832 contracts. We have 2 more reading days before first day notice. Looks like we will have a strong August standing for gold (JULY 29/22..FIRST DAY NOTICE)

Sept. gained 238 contracts to 3372 contracts.

We had 30 notice(s) filed today for  3000 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 30 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  30 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9635) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 36  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 30 x 100 oz per contract equals 964,100 OZ  OR 29.987 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9635) x 100 oz+   (36)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (30} x 100 oz} which equals 958,100 oz standing OR 29.987 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  29.987 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  30,892.570.364 OZ  960.88

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,451,836.344  OZ (480.6 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,440,734.023 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,008,303.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 404.6 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 27

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory717,256.682  oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory802,768.630 oz
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)34 CONTRACT(S)
170,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)66 contracts 
(330,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)4008 contracts
 20,040,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 178,981.730 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 623,776.900 oz

total deposit:  802,768.630   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.168 million oz/337.594 million =51.89% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:4

i) Out of Brinks:  9489.510 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 100,085.238 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 2999.934 oz

iv) Out of jPMorgan 601,682.000 0z

total: 717,256.682 oz

 adjustments: 2//dealer to customer

JPMorgan 1,932,366.380 oz

and

Manfra:  14,422.600 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 57.787 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.594 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 100 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 294 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 383 NOTICES FILED

ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 89 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  445,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 62 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 874

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 2404 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 116,926

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for  170,000 oz

Comex volumes:47,665// est. volume today//  poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 45,822 contracts ( poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4008 x 5,000 oz = 20,040,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(100) and the number of notices served upon today 34  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 4008 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (100)  – number of notices served upon today (34) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 20,370,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.29 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 484.118 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The White House Recession Denial

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 10:10 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The economic data indicates that the US economy is already in a recession. The Biden administration wants you to think otherwise, and the White House has come up with an interesting way to deny the recession reality. Just change the definition of a recession.

Peter Schiff appeared on the Ingraham Angle with Lauren Ingraham to talk about this White House spin.

The common definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In the first quarter of 2022, GDP came in at -1.6 percent. The Atlanta Fed projects another -1.6% decline in Q2. That would mean we’re in a recession now, and we have been all year. But White House spokespeople and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are quick to remind us that this is not the “technical” definition of a recession.

Technicalities notwithstanding, Ingraham points out that the last 10 times the economy experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth were technically defined as recessions. She called the Biden administration’s wordplay “a perfect distillation of modern leftism.”

When you’re losing, just change the rules of the game, then declare victory.”

Peter pointed out that the government already changed the definition of inflation from “an expansion of the money supply” to “prices going up.”

So, they may as well change the definition of recession. Because for my entire career, recession has been described by two quarters of negative GDP growth. And we’ve got that.”

During her interview on Meet the Press, Yellen said a recession wasn’t two quarters of negative GDP. She said it was a broad-based economic slowdown. Peter said that’s exactly what we’ve got.

The auto industry is in recession. The housing industry is in recession. Retail is in recession. Advertising is in recession. So many unrelated segments of the economy are in recession — how you can’t say this is a broad-based slowdown — it doesn’t make any sense. And in fact, it’s going to get a lot worse in the third quarter and then probably the fourth quarter as well.”

Ingraham noted that the White House and others denying a recession hang their hats on the tight labor market. But even that is looking shaky. As Peter said, we’ve seen three straight weeks of increasing first-time jobless claims, and they’re at the highest level since October last year.

Meanwhile, if you look at that last job report, even though we added about 400,000 jobs in the establishment survey, the household survey lost about that many jobs. But if you actually look at the jobs, almost all of these new jobs were for people who already had jobs. These were people taking second and third jobs because they’re struggling to pay the bills. And you have a lot of retirees who are being forced back into the workforce because inflation has eviscerated their incomes, and now they have no choice but to go to work. So, these are not jobs that people want. These are jobs that people are forced to take because the economy is so weak.”

Peter also pointed out that employment is a lagging indicator.

I think we’re going to see mass layoffs in the third and fourth quarters of this year as employers start to react to the reality of recession by laying off workers.”

As Ingraham said, next the White House will have to redefine the word layoffs.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

(Courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

When buying gold or silver, please consider the dealers who support GATA

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-07-26 23:10Section: Daily Dispatches

1110p ET Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Being the only forms of money without counterparty risk, at least when held directly by their owners, gold and silver are often seen as the foundation of a sound investment portfolio. 

This principle was put into graphic format by the U.S. economist John Exter, who served as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vice president in charge of international banking and precious metals operations, as well as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, long before suppressing the gold price became the Fed’s primary objective.

In Exter’s inverted pyramid of financial asset risk, gold is the ultimate asset, with all other assets posing greater risk to their owners:

But you can do more than protect yourself when you buy gold and the other monetary metal, silver. You can also help GATA fight the price suppression we long have been exposing, documenting, and sometimes litigating against:

https://gata.org/node/20925

That is you can buy metal from dealers who support GATA and have been recommended by our supporters over the years.

A list of those dealers is included with every GATA Dispatch and is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

https://gata.org/node/173

So please give them a chance to meet your investment needs.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke at Sprott believes that after looking at inverest rates, concludes that the Fed will have to stop raising interest rates long before they come close to the official inflation rate

(Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Putting the stag in stagflation

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-07-26 22:56Section: Daily Dispatches

10:56p ET Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing tonight at Sprott Money, looks at bond prices and concludes that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising interest rates long before they come close to the official inflation rate. That, Hemke concludes, means stagflation and resumption of uptrends for gold and silver.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Putting the Stag in Staflation” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Putting-The-Stag-in-Stagflation-Craig-Hemke-July-26-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

For your interest…

Why Austria’s Monetary Gold Transfer To Switzerland Is Delayed

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins

In my first article on this topic I wrote the Austrian central bank (OeNB) had implemented a new gold storage concept in 2015, because the national court of audit (Rechnungshof, RH hereafter) found it was storing too much gold in London at the Bank of England (BOE). OeNB planned to repatriate 90 tonnes from BOE, and transfer 50 tonnes from London to Switzerland. Within five years (by 2020) the new storage concept should have materialized.

In 2018, ahead of schedule, the gold had arrived in Austria. However, the shipment to Switzerland hasn’t arrived until this day.

First, the problem isn’t in London. There hasn’t been any problem for OeNB withdrawing 90 tonnes to repatriate, so there is little reason to think another 50 tonnes couldn’t be taken out. Austria is politically on good footing with the U.K., unlike Venezuela which has been blocked from repatriating in recent years.

Second, in two documents by RH—one from 2015 and another from 2018—there is evidence OeNB was already storing gold at the Swiss central bank (SNB), and wanted to add 50 tonnes to the same depository. As discussed in my second article on this topic, the renovation of the Swiss central bank’s vault was planned to be completed in 2018, but is taking several years longer than excepted. This is why OeNB was forced to postpone the shipment. Let’s have a look at the evidence.

In both documents (RH1 and RH2 hereafter) the actual names of many banks, institutions and depositories are replaced by code names. Although, there is sufficient information disclosed to decipher who’s who. For example, in table 4 in RH1 it shows that by late 2013 the central bank of Finland (BOF) held 7% of its gold at “depository C in Switzerland.” On its website we read BOF holds 7% of its gold at SNB. Other cross checks confirm “depository C in Switzerland” must be SNB. An often mentioned “institution in Switzerland” must be the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). And so forth.

Connecting the Dots

By 2014 OeNB had closed all accounts with commercial banks and its metal at the BIS in Switzerland was allocated. The gold previously held at Swiss commercial banks was moved to OeNB’s account at SNB.

From RH1 (page 48):

In 2013, OeNB closed the gold deposits held at two Swiss commercial banks (depositories A and B), in which a total of approximately seven tonnes of gold … were stored and opened a gold deposit for these approximately seven tonnes … at depository C in Switzerland [SNB]….

From RH1 (page 60):

Implemented as per December 31, 2013: The physical stocks, which were stored at commercial banks, were finally entirely liquidated … due to risk considerations.

A metal account of approximately 14.3 tonnes held at the institution in Switzerland [BIS] … was converted into physical stock as of January 30, 2014.

Since 2014 OeNB’s gold is spread over four vaults, and it wants to keep it like that.

From RH2 (page 19):

The court of audit found that, since 2014, OeNB had kept its physical gold holdings in its own vaults, at the Austrian Mint, at a depository in England [BOE] and a depository in Switzerland [SNB]. In its new storage concept OeNB did not envisage using any other depositories in the coming years.

OeNB can physically hold gold at four vaults (OeNB, Austrian Mint, BOE, SNB) and the BIS, because the BIS has no vaults of its own but uses the custodial services of BOE, SNB, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Attentive readers might have noted that in 2015 OeNB disclosed to have ~6 tonnes stored in Switzerland, which is less than 14.3 tonnes with the BIS at SNB plus ~7 tonnes at SNB directly. The explanation is a location swap executed by the BIS (from SNB to BOE) on the same day the metal was allocated.

From RH1 (page 53):

As of January 30, 2014, OeNB had the delivery claims recorded in the account held at the institution in Switzerland [BIS] transferred to a bar deposit account of the institution at the depository in England [BOE] ….

After the swap OeNB held “approximately seven tonnes of gold” at SNB. Roughly in line with ~6 tonnes. The counterparty of the swap that moved metal from BOE to SNB is unknown to me.

RH is mainly concerned about spreading the gold geographically and for OeNB being able to audit it. Other points of attention are the custodian’s duties of care and liability, ownership rights, insurance, the transmission of stock lists and agreements regarding deliveries. In RH1 (page 74) it states, “the most comprehensive agreement was the one with depository C in Switzerland [SNB].” Although, as early as 2013, auditing access was limited.

From RH2 (page 19):

In its letter of May 8, 2013, the depository in Switzerland [SNB] informed the OeNB that in general it would be able to access OeNB’s stored gold but pointed out that there would be restrictions in this regard until 2018. … In response to an inquiry by OeNB during the follow-up review by the court of audit in February 2017, the depository in Switzerland confirmed … that OeNB would have normal access to the depository as of 2019.

Apparently SNB started moving out the gold from Bundesplatz 1 in Berne to the federal bunker near Kandersteg in 2013 whereby access to the vault was restricted. The dates on which the restrictions would be lifted more or less fit SNB’s projections as mentioned in its annual reports. In 2018 SNB first disclosed the renovation wad delayed until 2021. In 2019 completion was set for 2022, and in 2021 it was moved further back to 2024.

Aside from stagnating on site auditing, OeNB had to wait for shipping 50 tonnes from London to SNB’s vault in Berne due to the renovation, RH concludes in 2015.

From RH1 (page 19):

By concluding an agreement with depository C in Switzerland [SNB], for up to 50 tonnes of gold, the depositories were spread out, which was intended to reduce the concentration risk at the depository in England [BOE]. However, this reduction was severely limited due to external circumstances that OeNB could not influence. Up until the beginning of 2019, a maximum of around seven tons of gold could initially be stored at this storage facility in Switzerland due to renovation work.

Other parts in RH1 also mention renovation work at depository C in Switzerland (SNB) as the reason an additional 50 tonnes couldn’t be shipped immediately.

Conclusion

More often than not speculation has the upper hand in the gold blogosphere. In 2013 many commentators (including me) were disgruntled by the pace with which the German central bank (BuBa) announced to repatriate gold from New York: 300 tonnes in 7 years. Eventually, it became clear BuBa wanted to upgrade the bars not adhering to LBMA Good Delivery standards. When it completed repatriating ahead of schedule in 2017, the Financial Times wrote 55 tonnes had been routed through Switzerland, “where two smelters remoulded the bullion,” before it went to Frankfurt.

There is also an explanation for the delay in OeNB’s shipment from London to Switzerland. Likely, OeNB needed time to check and weigh the 90 tonnes coming home from London. In any case, it knew the shipment to SNB had to wait a few years and so the decision was made to implement the new storage concept by 2020. But then the renovation took longer than anticipated and OeNB had to adapt.

I will write one final article on this topic, when OeNB’s gold has finally arrived in Berne.

END

Worth repeating

(Alasdair Macleod)

Gold & The Upcoming Recession

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

We are now seeing the initial stages of a currency, credit, and banking crisis develop.

Driving it are an inflation of prices, contraction of bank credit and a pathological fear of recession.

One can imagine that the major central banks almost wish a mild recession upon us so that they can keep interest rates suppressed and bond yields low.

The key to understanding the course of events is that the cycle of bank credit is turning down, and this time the factors driving contraction are greater than anything we have experienced since the 1930s, and possibly in all modern monetary history.

This article joins the dots between inflation and recession and puts the relationship between money (that is only gold), currencies, credit, and commodity prices into their proper perspective.

The bank credit downturn…

It is increasingly obvious that the economic cost of sanctioning Russia is immense, and there’s now growing evidence of all major economies facing a downturn in economic activity. And we don’t have to rely on GDP forecasts to know why. Intuitively, if food and energy shortages impact us all, higher prices for these items alone will affect our spending on less important items and services.

That’s reasonable enough for sensible citizens. But financial analysts insist on quantifying it with their models. Their principal measure is the total value of all recorded transactions, comprised of GDP. They proceed seemingly unaware of the difference between the value of economic activity to the advancement of the human condition, which can’t be measured, and a meaningless total comprised of only currency and credit, which can. Consequently, all they end up recording is changes in the quantity of currency and credit deployed in the economy.

Of course, there is a broad point that if the quantity of currency and credit contracts, GDP falls. And if it is severe, economic activity tends to fall as well. But to equate the two to the point that a variation of less than a per cent or so from modelled forecasts means anything is nonsense. A proper assessment of the economic condition gets lost.

Instead, an awareness of the role of bank credit is called for. Banks create credit, which feeds into the GDP total when they are optimistic about the outlook for lending. And when they deem the outlook to be deteriorating, they withdraw credit which reduces the GDP total. It leads to a repetitive cycle of boom and bust. We are now entering a period where, at the margin, banks are trying to reduce their exposure to credit going sour. Therefore, GDP will contract And we can assess where it will contract. It really is that simple.

The best thing to do is to stand back and let the excesses of lending and the support for malinvestments  wash themselves out of the system. The last time this was done was the brief but very sharp recession of 1920—1921 in the US. The government of the day understood it was not its business to intervene, and anyway, it was not capable of improving thngs.

But increasingly since, monetary policy has become run by central banks which steer their economies through rear view mirrors, reacting to information rather than anticipating. But even if they could anticipate economic trends they lack the commercial nous to manage it. Instead, their stock reaction to declining GDP will be to “stimulate”. Not only do they have a mandate to maintain full employment, but they have a Keynesian belief that a decline in GDP is entirely due to falling demand. Falling demand, they say, leads to lower prices, so the inflation figures in the CPI will fall. Producer prices will fall. All commodity prices will fall. The chart below feeds this line of hopeful thinking.

This basket of commodities has fallen in value by 17% in a month. Panic over. Even wheat and soya prices have fallen. Dr Copper is down. Grasping at these straws, central banks are undoubtedly relieved that inflation might be turning transient after all.

Or so they think. There is no doubt that we are experiencing enormous price volatility. If it was entirely due to consumers deciding not to spend because prices are too high for them, that is one thing. But if it is because banks are withdrawing credit, the consequences are materially different.

A central bank’s concern to maintain consumer spending might discourage banks from contracting credit for consumers, at least initially. Furthermore, their risk models show that while individually consumers using credit are often high risk the magic of securitisation turns these risks collectively into low risk. It becomes a numbers game. So, credit card and other consumer faced lending divisions with very high credit margins are not the first to be targeted. And anyway, that would put the bank’s executives at odds with the central bank.

Instead, in the initial stages of a credit downturn, banks withdraw credit principally from business borrowers who use overdraft facilities. A business that frequently resorts to overdraft facilities is high risk in any bank’s assessment. Weaker businesses are first to succumb to the credit downturn for this reason. Other early victims of credit contraction are financial speculators because their collateral is easily realised. We have seen the decline of US stock indices so far being accompanied by a $200bn reduction in margin lending. There’s still much more to go.

As the economist Irving Fisher pointed out in the 1930s, calling in loans to reduce bank credit can become a self-feeding destruction of value. The bit he failed to understand is that in a serious downturn it can’t be helped, because it is the other side of earlier credit expansion, and it is the unwinding of unsound lending. Both an understanding of what drives periodic contractions of bank credit and the empirical evidence that it has repeated in one form or another approximately every decade since records began, inform us that it should not be stopped but allowed to proceed. Compare the brief 1920—1921 slump in the US with the prolonged 1930s slump, the latter managed by first Presidents Herbert Hoover and then Franklin Roosevelt.

We should also know from understanding that bank credit is a cycle, that the height of the recent expansionary phase measured by the ratio of total bank balance sheet assets to their shareholders’ capital indicates the likely severity of the subsequent credit contraction. It reflects deposit liabilities to a bank’s customers relative to its shareholders assets. Traditionally, asset to equity ratios of more than eight to ten times were deemed risky. Some major banks, particularly in the EU and Japan, are now at over twenty times. While the US banks are less geared, the systemic risks to them from other national banking systems in this financially interconnected world are the highest they have ever been.

For the immediate future we can discern two things. First is that production of goods and services is likely to be more limited than consumption due to an absence of bank credit, knocking on the head the Keynesian misconception that it is a problem of insufficient demand. That is just an initial phase. And following it, the contraction of bank credit can be expected to become more severe, as banks draw their horns in to protect their shareholders from an Irving Fisher style slump. In this subsequent second phase both producers and consumers will face enormous financial difficulties.

Without aggressive intervention by central banks, the correction from excessive over-lending taking bank balance sheets beyond dangerous levels of leverage will simply fuel a GDP slump. Central banks will intervene, not just to deliver on the full employment mandate, but to finance government budget deficits which will soar under these developing circumstances.

Prices in a slump

The last real slump, when the forces driving bank credit contraction were arguably less severe, was in the 1930s following the Wall Street crash. At that time, the dollar and sterling, together the world’s major international currencies, were both on gold standards. Prices of commodities, raw materials and agricultural products collapsed, effectively measured in gold through these two currencies. The political strains led to Britain abandoning its bullion standard in 1932, and the US gold coin standard was suspended for US citizens in 1933, followed by a 40% dollar-devaluation in January 1934.

The effect of the collapse of bank credit was to make circulating media in dollars and sterling scarce, thereby raising their purchasing power. To this extent, gold’s purchasing power also rose, because it was tied to the currencies. While gold gave credibility to the dollar and sterling, it was the contraction of bank credit that drove the slump in prices, while gold got the blame.

We know that priced in gold, over time commodity, raw materials, and agricultural product prices are remarkably stable. Disruption in the price relationship does not come from gold. The following chart of the WTI oil price rebased to 1950 illustrates prices in sterling, dollars, and euros where there are huge variations in prices. Contrast that with gold (the yellow line), where the price today is down about 30% from 1950 with minimal volatility along the way.

Our next chart makes the point with base metals, fuel and non-cyclical agriculture raw materials all rebased in gold.

Since 1992, which is the earliest common date we have for these series, an unweighted average gold value for them has fallen a net 19% (the black line). Fuel has been the most volatile at up to 2.5 times the 1992 price, but from the previous chart we can see that it was up a net 12 times in US dollars in 2007/08 from 1992. Priced in gold, the relatively little volatility we see in these commodity groups is as close as we can get to free market values in sound money. And even then, we know that gold prices are manipulated in the markets. We can also assume that the origin of this volatility does not come from gold, but from the violent price changes in fiat currencies, their interest rates, and their distortions with respect to demand for commodities.

These findings overturn conventional opinions on price formation. The evidence is that it is not true that fiat currencies are purely objective in their relationship with commodity prices. Forecasters of commodity prices incorrectly assume there is no change from the currency side. But clearly, the fluctuations overwhelmingly emanate from the currencies themselves. 

This brings us to the likely effect of an economic slump on prices. Initially in our analysis, we will assume there is little change in the public’s desire to hold fiat currencies relative to the range of commodities and consumer goods. That being the case, we can see that it will be variations in the quantity of currency and credit in circulation driving prices. A contraction in this quantity will tend to lower prices. And Keynesian economists might conclude that precious metals being commodities will also fall in price against fiat currencies, given that fiat currencies are no longer tied to gold.

The flaw in this argument is that there are indeed other factors involved, and the consequences for the quantity of currency and credit in a slump must be taken into account. Irrespective of changes in monetary policy, in socialised economies government budget deficits soar and will need financing by expansion of the currency if bank credit is not forthcoming. In other words, despite the tendency for banks to contract bank credit to the private sector and even if central banks do not amend monetary policies, it will be more than offset by an expansion of currency passed into the economy through the government’s books.

Furthermore, under these circumstances monetary policy will change as well. Following the initial withdrawal of overdraft credit from businesses and bank loans for financial speculation, there is likely to be a softening of consumer demand as lending standards tighten and financial insecurity for consumers escalates. Central banks will notice the tendency for the withdrawal of bank credit to lead to a slump in consumer demand. They will almost certainly reduce interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing to replace contracting bank credit to stimulate flagging economic activity. They have eased and stimulated in every bank credit cycle at this point since the 1930s, and there’s no reason to think they will do otherwise today.

An increase in currency and credit, not emanating from the commercial banks but from the central bank, with increasing budget deficits will continue to debase the currency in gold terms. The currency will also be debased against commodities. But with some volatility imparted from the currency side, we can see that the general relationship between commodities and gold can be expected to remain intact.

A systemic failure is on the cards

All this assumes that within the context of the bank credit cycle there is not a significant systemic failure. Given that the forces behind credit contraction today are greater than any time since the 1930s, and possibly for all modern monetary history, that is a vain hope. Last week I pointed out the looming catastrophe for the euro system and the euro. A similar tale can be told about the Japanese yen. And sterling is just a poor man’s version of the dollar without its hegemony status.

In the event of a systemic crisis, the role of central banks will be to underwrite their entire commercial banking system. The consequences of letting Lehman go bankrupt on the last cycle of bank credit contraction did not serve as a warning to profligate bankers. Instead, it had us all staring into a systemic abyss, and that mistake will not be repeated. In a systemic crisis today, it will take unprecedented currency and credit creation by the central banks to save the financial world. And it’s that debasement that will end up collapsing fiat currencies. 

Meanwhile, we can expect central banks to milk the transitory inflation story for all its worth. Forget the CPI rising at 8%+ they will say. It will soon return to the 2% target as recession bites. But that’s another excuse to ease policy. It might buy just a little more time before the crisis hits. But don’t bank on it.

Manipulation becomes official

Earlier this month, three JPMorgan Chase traders faced a federal trial in Chicago, accused of masterminding a massive eight-year scheme to manipulate international markets for precious metals by spoofing, including gold and silver. JPMorgan had already been fined $920m in 2020. 

Coincidently, Peter Hambro who was a gold trader in London in the early days of the derivatives market described how the bullion banks created unallocated gold accounts. One of Hambros’ more interesting comments was about the role of the authorities: 

“Disinformation for many years has kept the lid on this tinderbox and since 2018 the Financial Stability Desks at the world’s central banks have followed the Bank of International Settlements’ instruction to hide the perception of inflation by rigging the gold market.”

Perhaps it’s not too great a leap of the imagination to suggest that the three JPMorgan Chase traders facing criminal charges in Chicago are being hung out to dry, when all they were doing the BIS’s and other central banks’ bidding.

What appears to have got Hambro commenting was a chart released by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in its quarterly derivatives report, replicated with notes below.

Over the previous quarter, 2022 Q1 shows a 520% increase in precious metal derivatives over 2021 Q4. As the note explains, this is due to a reclassification of gold derivatives from exchange rates to precious metals. What it does not say is that the effect is to increase the supervisory factor from 4% to 18%.  The following definition of supervisory factors is taken from the OCC’s Bulletin 2020-7:

“The Basel Committee standard uses supervisory factors that reflect the volatilities observed in the derivatives markets during the financial crisis. The supervisory factors reflect the potential variability of the primary risk factor of the derivative contract over a one-year horizon.”

In the context of this article, the reason for the reclassification of legal money (for that is gold) from exchange rate derivatives to commodities is that after significant back-testing they found gold correlated more with commodities than currencies. Bravo! That is what the earlier charts in this article, of the steadiness of commodity prices over time measured in gold, point out. The mistake made by regulators is to think price volatility is in commodities, when in fact it is in fiat currencies. What they should be doing is giving gold a zero supervisory factor, commodities a 4% factor, and currencies 18%. But as Peter Hambro points out, the BIS, which supervises Basel banking regulations, has run a secret campaign with the major central banks to suppress the price of gold.

While the manipulators at the BIS might think that declassifying gold from currency is a further nail in gold’s coffin, the measure could backfire. Following this ruling, to maintain substantial derivative positions chews up balance sheet, and bank treasurers are likely to seek restraint on outstanding positions, given their mandate to reduce balance sheet leverage. This observation is a segway to another consideration.

The markets for over the counter and regulated derivatives have increased along with the financialisation of banking activities since the mid-eighties. For nearly forty years, the dollar has acted as the backbone of financialisation with the big New York banks acting as its recycler. Two events are calling an end to this period. First, the long-term decline of interest rates has come to an end as the purchasing power of the dollar declines at an accelerating pace. And secondly, sanctions against Russia have backfired badly on dollar hegemony. If anything, it heralds a new era of Asian currencies reflecting, or being tied to commodities. Indeed, a trade settlement currency for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with a major commodity element in it is planned. It may not see the light of day, but commodities, not financial activities, are central to pan-Asian trade and the dollar’s successors are likely to reflect it.

Even Saudi Arabia has shown interest in aligning with the BRICS group, which in turn is aligning with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has in its membership all the EAEU nations. Saudi Arabia is important, because it was the Kingdom’s agreement with President Nixon which created the petrodollar. So, Mohammed bin Salman who now rules the kingdom politically, appears to be turning his back on the Nixon agreement to only accept payment in dollars for oil. That is the death knell for the petrodollar.

And then there are the balance sheet considerations in the financially centric banking system. Rising interest rates are collapsing the availability of bank credit for maintaining the bull market in stock and bond prices. Just as a long-term bull market on the back of an enduring decline in interest rates has driven the expansion of derivatives, the end of that bull market is bound to lead to a contraction. And as commercial bank treasurers prioritise balance sheet reductions, those having a high supervisory factor, such as precious metal and commodity derivatives will attract their attention.

The BIS scheme for suppressing gold prices will be unwound while global currency debasement accelerates. It looks like a double-whammy is about to undermine global fiat currency world credibility. For now, it is the dollar that reflects the upcoming storm, like the weird fall in sea levels ahead of a tsunami. The collapse in the yen, euro, and pound, together with an increasing list of minor currencies collapsing, is like an approaching tsunami, when the sea level initially drops.

The same happened in the last bank credit crisis, when Lehman failed, and every other US bank was rescued by the Fed. There was an initial flight into the dollar which saw gold prices fall. The problem facing risk-averse Keynesian-educated investors is their accounting of profits and losses is in fiat currencies. They must sell risky investments for cash in their currencies of account. And internationally, that is predominantly dollars which is why the dollar is usually a safe haven in the initial stages of a systemic crisis.

After the initial rush, dollars and other currencies are then sold for real money, which is and always has been gold.

END

JPMorgan Spoofing Trial May End Without Defendants’ Testimony

July 25, 2022, 6:45 PM

Chicago jury hears from first defense witness on Monday
Attorneys signal defendants won’t take to the stand themselves

Two former JPMorgan Chase & Co. gold traders and a salesman on the bank’s precious metals desk signaled they won’t take the stand at a trial where they’re charged with conspiring to use spoof trades to manipulate prices for years…

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7512

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7480

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 235.84 PTS OR  1.13%

2. Nikkei closed UP 60.54 OR 0.22%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL IN THE GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  106,74/Euro RISES TO 1.0163

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.199/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.74/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.045%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.27%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.05//

3j Gold at $1720.10 silver at: 18.76  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1  AND 00/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.56

3m oil into the 96 dollar handle for WTI and  105 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.71DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9616– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9714well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.799  UP 1  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.027  UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.92

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Bounce On Tech Optimism As Fed Looms

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 08:00 AM

Global markets and US equity futures got a strong boost on Tuesday from reassuring big tech reports including Microsoft, Texas Instruments and Google, which delivered double-digit revenue growth reversing the doom and gloom from other reporters. Microsoft assuaged fears that the strong dollar and a weakening economy would hurt sales while Alphabet posted advertising revenue that surpassed analysts’ expectations amid an industry slowdown. Credit Suisse CEO Thomas Gottstein will to be replaced by asset-management head Ulrich Koerner next week after the Swiss bank posted its third straight quarterly loss and its worst trading first half in decades. All of that, of course, pales ahead of the day’s main event Later today, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point.

Nasdaq 100 contracts led gains rising 1.3% and reversing much of Tuesday’s plunge. S&P futures rose 0.8% alongside European stocks which also rose, with the banking sector up even as Credit Suisse Group AG posted a larger-than-expected loss, Deutsche Bank AG warned on costs, and the outlook on Italy’s sovereign debt ranking was lowered by S&P. The dollar and Treasury yields slipped, while oil and European natural gas prices extended gains.

In premarket trading, major technology and internet stocks were higher after both Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet reported double- digit quarterly revenue growth amid tough macro conditions. Microsoft shares rose 4.3% after the software company said it expects double- digit sales growth for the fiscal year 2023. While quarterly revenue was weaker than expected, Barclays analysts say the report shows resilience despite a number of headwinds. Fellow tech giant Alphabet shares also rise 4% in premarket trading after the Google parent reported its 2Q revenue in line with Wall Street expectations. Analysts said the results were better than feared, but noted that “macro uncertainty remains high.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.21 (exp. 1.29), Revenue 69.70bln (exp. 70.04bln).Google advertising 56.29bln, (exp. 55.91bln). CFO said FX impact to be even greater in the current Q, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC) +3.5% in the pre-market
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 2.23 (exp. 2.29/2.29 GAAP), Revenue 51.9bln (exp. 52.45bln). Intelligent Cloud revenue 20.91bln (exp. 21.07bln). Guides FY23 revenue double digits sales growth, FY23 FX impact of 4-points decrease in revenue growth, via its conference call. (Newswires) +3.8% in the pre-market
  • Visa Inc (V) Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.74/1.73 GAAP), Revenue 7.3bln (exp. 7.06bln). (Newswires) Co. seeing no evidence of a pullback in consumer spending. Unch. in the pre-market
  • Twitter (TWTR) said it significantly slowed hiring in Q2 2022; in 2021 and H1 2022, macro factors had a negative impact on, and may negative impact in future periods, such as advertising revenue. Twitter is to hold shareholder vote on Musk deal on September 13th at 18:00BEST/13:00EDT, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC)
  • PayPal (PYPL US) shares jump as much as 6.5% premarket, following a report that activist investor Elliott is building a stake in the payments firm. Results from peer Visa also boost sentiment.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rebounds along with US stock futures after Alphabet, Microsoft and Texas Instruments results spur hopes that the technology sector can manage a slow economy. Coinbase (COIN US) +4.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +7.6%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +5.5%, Ebang (EBON US) +12%
  • ObsEva (OBSV US) shares slump 75% in premarket trading after the biopharmaceutical company said it plans to initiate a corporate restructuring given the commercial landscape and potential additional capital is needed to fund the completion of the linzagolix clinical development program.
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH US) shares surged as much as 12% in premarket trading as analysts hiked their price targets on the solar energy equipment maker, with brokers saying its results and guidance for the 3Q were robust and exceeded expectations thanks to strong demand.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN US) shares rose 2.8% in postmarket trading on Tuesday after issuing a bullish forecast for the current quarter. Analysts note that the company exceeded its “overly conservative” estimates as lockdowns eased in China.
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 16% in Tel Aviv, the most since May 2020, after the Israeli company said it had struck a deal with US state and local governments to pay more than $4 billion to settle thousands of lawsuits. US-listed ADRs also gain 16% in premarket trading.

The mood remains edgy ahead of a much-anticipated Fed interest-rate increase – part of a global wave of monetary tightening to quell inflation that’s stoking concerns about a worldwide economic slowdown. Investors are also bracing for the busiest reporting day of the season, where Meta may sour the mood after the bell with a slowdown in ad spending. Qualcomm will give investors a view into a smartphone market that’s losing steam. Boeing, Ford and Kraft are also due.

That said, US company earnings are providing a sliver of hope — more than three-quarters of firms that have reported so far either beat or met expectations. But there are doubts about how long they can weather economic challenges. Top-tier firms including Apple, Amazon and Mastercard will report tomorrow, on what will be a $9.4 trillion day in the US and Europe. Last but not least tomorrow the US will report the first estimate of Q2 GDP which is expected to print negative confirming a US technical recession.  “Inflation is hurting companies and the question is whether these policy rate hikes are going to do anything to alleviate the pain,” Quadratic Capital Management founder Nancy Davis said on Bloomberg Television.

Elsewhere, President Joe Biden will speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday amid fresh tensions over Taiwan. The White House is also considering whether to lift some tariffs on Chinese imports to stem inflation.

And speaking of the Fed, the swaps market currently prices in around 77bp of rate hikes for today’s Fed decision and combined additional 183bp by the December FOMC meeting. The projected 75 basis-point Fed move to tackle price pressures would cement the steepest two-month rise in rates since the 1980s. The key question is whether Chair Jerome Powell’s policy signals validate or refute scaled-back bets projecting a 3.4% peak fed funds rate around year-end and cuts in 2023 to shore up an economy at risk of recession.

“The Fed hasn’t even gotten to neutral yet,” Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said on Bloomberg Television. “For them to start easing already or for them to start seeing eases priced in is, I think, a little premature.”

In any case, Powell is expected to acknowledge that downside risks to growth have increased and reiterate the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation. A full FOMC preview can be found here.

“The risk is that Powell starts to set markets up for a move back to a default position of 50bp moves, though we can see little reason for the Fed to lose the optionality of going 75bp when there is significant news that they may have to react to between this and the next meeting,” according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Adam Cole. Meanwhile, the ECB will deliver only 50 basis points of additional interest rate increases this year as the euro zone succumbs to a recession in the fourth quarter, according to JPMorgan.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.6% with travel, personal care and tech are the strongest performing sectors. Credit Suisse shares gained as the bank replaced its embattled chief executive officer and said it would embark on a new turnaround plan just nine months after the last one, while Deutsche Bank fell after it scrapped an efficiency target for the year and warned a key profitability goal was getting harder to reach. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • UniCredit shares jumped as much as 7.4% after what Jefferies said was a “bumper” quarter, with new 2022 profit guidance about 10% above consensus. The lender reported net income for 2Q that doubled analyst expectations.
  • Reckitt shares jump as much as 6.7%, after the consumer-goods company reported 2Q sales that beat estimates and raised its outlook for the year.
  • Worldline shares jump as much as 15% after the payment firm’s 2Q revenue and margin beat expectations, with strength driven by the in- focus merchant services arm, according to analysts.
  • Holcim shares climb as much as 5.9% after it reported 2Q sales that beat the average estimate, with analysts highlighting the building materials company’s success in raising prices.
  • Mercedes-Benz shares rise as much as 4.5% after the company reported 2Q results that beat estimates and raised its guidance. Oddo BHF calls the increased guidance “supportive.”
  • Smurfit Kappa shares rose as much as 6.7% after reporting 2Q results which reassured analysts amid a challenging macro environment. Davy described the release as a “blow-out quarter” and further proof of the group’s business transformation.
  • Rio Tinto shares decline as much as 4.6%, lagging peers in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Basic Resources subindex, after the miner reported 1H results that missed analyst estimates and cut its dividend in half.
  • Adidas shares fall as much as 6.1%. The magnitude of the group’s outlook cut was bigger than anticipated by analysts and could signal challenges ahead for the rest of the sportswear sector.
  • Eurofins Scientific shares fall as much as 11% after the French laboratory company presented its latest earnings. Analysts note that while the company boosted its guidance, organic growth disappointed. The stock trimmed some losses later.
  • Aena drops as much as 7.7% after it reported results that missed the average estimates. Analysts’ worries focus around operating expenses’ inflation for 2H, the winter outlook and any impact from further impairment.

Italian bonds fell after S&P lowered the nation’s outlook to stable from positive after recent political turmoil led to the resignation of the nation’s prime minister and the calling of fresh elections. The rating itself remains at BBB, two levels above junk. The news spread the spread between Italy and German 10Y yields to a new one-month highs.

Earlier in the session, most Asian stocks were higher while gauges in China and Hong Kong fell, with trading volume thin as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%, dragged down by Chinese tech giants. Trading volume in Asia was among the lowest this year as investors took to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s anticipated 75 basis point rate hike due later Wednesday.  Hong Kong’s equity benchmark fell more than 1%, with Alibaba’s retreat contributing the most to the loss as the focus shifted to next week’s earnings results. India’s gauges jumped, while those in South Korea, Japan and Australia advanced modestly.   The market is particularly keen to hear about the Fed’s post-July path, which will impact the dollar and flows to the global markets.

“July looks like a very weak season for the market,” with sentiment damped by macroeconomic concerns, Covid and China’s property crisis, Jun Li, chief investment officer at Power Pacific Investment Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “We do have confidence in the second half of 2022,” she said.  A measure of Asian chip stocks reversed its earlier loss to rise for the first time in four sessions, as SK Hynix said it would significantly adjust its 2023 capital spending, which could limit declines in chip prices.

In stocks, US futures rally after strong earnings. S&P futures rise 1%. Nasdaq contracts rally 1.7%. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.6%. Travel, personal care and tech are the strongest performing sectors. Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.2%. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2%, giving up some of its 0.4% gain from Tuesday. The Fed is forecast to raise its key rate by 75 basis points for a second meeting. EUR/USD gained 0.3% to $1.0144; the pair had tumbled 1% Tuesday as traders focused on spiking natural gas prices on the prospect of reduced Russian supply. Sterling inched up, supported by early gains in UK and European share markets. The Aussie weakened as much as 0.4% after a government report showed inflation was slower in the second quarter than economists forecast, before rallying back to $0.6950. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with gains led by belly, outperforming core European rates market and steepening 5s30s spread. US 10-year yields around 2.795%, richer by 1.5bp on the day; belly outperformance re-steepens 5s30s spread back to around 14bp, near middle of Tuesday’s range. The 5-year yield across the Treasury curve continues to slightly outperform, while 2s5s10s butterflies are about 3 bps tighter. In European fixed income, bunds edge lower and gilts slightly bear steepen. The US IG issuance slate empty so far, expected to remain light with FOMC event risk; July volumes have already met expectations, helped by last week’s bumper $45b slate.

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, adding 1.2% to trade near $96.12. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,724/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.2%, outperforming peers. 

Looking at the day ahead, the FOMC looms large in the day ahead, but US pending home sales, inventories, and goods trade balance data will also be released, along with consumer confidence figures in Germany, France, and Italy, and Chinese industrial profits. The day is chock full with earnings as well, including: Meta, T-Mobile, Qualcomm, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Kering, Iberdrola, Lam Research, Mercedes-Benz, Boston Scientific, Shopify, Ford, Kraft Heinz, BASF, Universal Music Group, Danone, Hilton, Vici, Spotify, Credit Suisse

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 3,963.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 427.68
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 158.84
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 520.24
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 27,715.75
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,945.75
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 20,670.04
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,275.76
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 55,657.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,823.23
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,415.53
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.94%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0144
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,723.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 106.98

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Oil Climbs as US Crude Stockpiles Shrink Ahead of Fed Decision
  • Biden Will Speak to Xi on Thursday as US-China Ties Worsen
  • A $9.4 Trillion Results Day Looms in a Test for Stock Market
  • Deutsche Bank Warns of Costs as Inflation Headwinds Build
  • Elliott Is Said to Amass PayPal Stake Seeking to Speed Cuts
  • Europe Energy Prices Keep Soaring as Russia Turns the Screw
  • Europe Gas Extends Scorching Rally as Russia Supply Set to Slump
  • Cathie Wood Dumps Coinbase Shares for First Time This Year
  • Apple Supplier SK Hynix’s Outlook Sours as Tech Demand Wanes
  • Trump Efforts to Create Fake Electors Probed by US Prosecutors
  • Teva Pharmaceutical to Pay Over $4 Billion in Opioid Accord
  • Visa to Dole Out Annual Raises Earlier Amid Inflation Pressures
  • Microsoft Shares Rise on Upbeat 2023 Sales Growth Forecast
  • Trump Returns to D.C., Hinting on 2024 and Jabbing Jan. 6 Panel
  • Google Reassures Investors With Ad Sales Showing Resilience
  • Microsoft Shares Rise on Upbeat Forecast for Fiscal 2023 Growth
  • Texas Instruments’ Rosy Forecast Counters Fears of Slowdown
  • Carson Block Sued Over $14 Million SEC Whistle-Blower Award

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly subdued session, but within narrow intraday ranges. ASX 200 moved between gains and losses with the Healthcare sector leading the gains whilst Metals & Mining lagged. Nikkei 225 was similarly contained whilst Canon shares fell as much as 3% post-earnings. KOSPI declined with Apple-supplier SK Hynix warning of a slowing in memory chip demand in H2. Hang Seng underperformed with Alibaba retracing yesterday’s gains whilst the property sector was also hit. Shanghai Comp was caged following another modest net liquidity drain by the PBoC, whilst multiple sources suggested the Biden-Xi call is to take place on Thursday.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong will have no choice but to raise interest rates, although the pace or scale need not follow US hikes and it is unlikely to trigger the kind of property market crisis seen in 1998, according to SCMP citing the Hong Kong Financial Secretary.
  • Magnitude 7.2 earthquake hits Philippines region of Luzon, according to ESMC; no tsunami warnings issue, according to Reuters.
  • China overnight rate fell below 1% for the first time since last year, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6.7731 vs exp. 6.7680 (prev. 6. 7483); weakest fix since May 17th.

European bourses are firmer across the board continuing the MSFT & GOOG driven early APAC action amidst numerous European earnings; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%. US futures are firmer across the board though the NQ +1.4% outperforms amid those after-market developments though participants are looking to the FOMC.

Top European News

Central Banks

  • Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have revised their August RBA calls to a 50bps hike (prev. 75bps hike) following the Australian Q2 CPI metrics.

FX

  • Buck backs off before the Fed and US data in the lead up, DXY slips into range around 107.000 and just shy of yesterday’s 107.290 recovery high.
  • Sterling secures firmer foothold above 1.2000 vs Dollar and maintains momentum through key technical level against Euro, EUR/GBP cross probes 0.8400 after breach of 200 DMA.
  • EUR/USD retains 1.0100+ status as Greenback wanes and hefty option expiry interest supplements underlying bids, 1.84bln rolls off at the strike.
  • Aussie sags as mixed inflation data sparks round of revised RBA hike forecasts from 75bp to half point, AUD/USD around 0.6950 following test of Fib resistance just under 0.7000 on Tuesday.
  • Loonie pares losses as crude prices settle down and Nokkie makes clean break of 10.0000 vs Euro, USD/CAD closer to 1.2850 than 1.2900.

Fixed Income

  • Whip-saw trade in debt ahead of the Fed as Bunds veer from 156.07 to 155.36, Gilts between 117.67-12 parameters and T-note within a 113-31/119-19+ range
  • 2032 German tap and 2051 UK linker sale sluggish
  • Italian BTPs underperform amidst the political void and S&P revising the sovereign’s outlook to stable from positive after interim ratings review

Commodities

  • Dutch TTF Aug’22 is the standout commodity mover, amid a reduction in physical flows through Nord Stream 1; thus far, TTF has printed a high of EUR 228/mWh.
  • Crude benchmarks modestly firmer, but significantly more contained.
  • NEC Director Deese said there are no plans to continue SPR releases beyond the originally set out 6mth period, according to Reuters.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -1mln), Distillates -0.6mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline -1.1mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
  • US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo met with European counterparts to discuss a price cap on Russian oil.
  • Chinese National Energy Administration expects energy consumptions growth to increase in H2, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold has staged a recovery on the session from earlier lows of USD 1713/oz; however, the yellow metal remains well within recent ranges and continues to move predominantly as a function of USD action.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -1.8%,  prior -6.3%
  • 08:30: June Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.4%, prior 0.8%; – Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • 08:30: June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 08:30: June Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$103b, prior -$104.3b
  • 08:30: June Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 1.8%
  • 10:00: June Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -13.5%, prior -12.0%
  • 10:00: June Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -1.0%, prior 0.7%
  • 14:00: July FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, est. 2.25%, prior 1.50%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Burgeoning energy and political crises in Europe, and the specter of the Fed pouring cold water on the recent dovish repricing of its policy weighed on risk yesterday. Diving in.

It was a bad day for the gas crisis in Europe, ultimately seeing European natural gas futures climb +21.2% to €214, their highest since the aftermath of the invasion, bringing them +33.9% higher on the week. As intimated in yesterday’s EMR, Russia was halting another Nord Stream 1 turbine to cut capacity down to 20%. At those levels, the continent would need to countenance rationing unless exports were cut (see our gas monitor here for more details), voluntary curbs which would be politically difficult. Yesterday gave a sense how difficult. While EU countries reached a deal on emergency gas cuts for this winter, the deal lacks the teeth of the original plan, as member states have more flexibility to determine demand curbs, which was a necessary concession to reach a bloc-wide deal. In particular, states can reduce their cuts if they commit to export more gas to neighbors and also exempt certain industries from demand reductions. Member states are due to prepare emergency plans by the end of September to show how they will curb demand.

That drove demand for most sovereign bonds, with 10yr bund yields falling -9.3bps. The STOXX 600 marched to a staccato rhythm all day, fluctuating around unchanged and ultimately closing a hair lower at -0.03%, while continental bourses closed on the downbeat, with the DAX -0.86% lower and the CAC down -0.42%. Along with the lackluster risk environment, S&P lowered Italy’s credit outlook from positive to stable, amid political uncertainty. 10yr BTP spreads widened +5.1bps to 232bps against bunds, their widest since mid-June.

Rising prices will of course be front and center at today’s key macro event, the July FOMC. The market is pricing +78bps of hikes today. That’s in line with our US economics call of another +75bp hike (see preview here). The team expects the Committee to downshift to a +50bp hike in September, reaching 3.6% by the end of the year and 4.1% early in the next one. They see risks to both sides of that modal path; continued hot inflation prints would enable another +75bp hike in September, while material labor market deterioration could flatten the path of hikes. While the Fed will probably offer guidance about how they are currently thinking about policy actions at the September meeting, the amount of data between now and then means investors shouldn’t assign too strong a prior to any forward guidance.

For most investors, however, the key question will be how restrictive the Fed ultimately needs to get policy. That is, how high is the terminal rate? The Chair will certainly be quizzed on the path to terminal during the press conference, but his elucidation about how restrictive policy needs to get will be more informative. DB research has spilled a fair bit of ink on that question in recent days, including US econ on what would trigger cuts next year (here), Alan Ruskin on terminal rate scenarios (here), and yours truly on the predictive power of forward looking rates during FOMC hiking cycles and periods of elevated inflation (here). Today’s Fed decision kept Treasury markets calm, with 2yrs rising +3.7bps and 10yrs just +1.1bps higher at 2.81%.

The market has assumed slowing growth numbers will factor into the Fed’s reaction function since the June FOMC, driving 2yr Treasuries -13.8bps lower, 10yr Treasuries -47.7bps lower, the S&P 500 +3.5% higher, and the NASDAQ +4.18% higher over that time, with around one fewer 25bp hike priced into terminal rates. How the Committee and Chair view that assessment will be a crucial element of today’s meeting.

While US risk has enjoyed an optimistic intermeeting period, more jitters creeped in today, with the S&P 500 closing -1.15% lower. A panoply of less-than-inspiring data weighed on the tone set by geopolitical risk and the Fed; with FHFA house prices (+1.4% vs. +1.5% expectations), New Home Sales (590k v 655k) Richmond Fed Manufacturing (0 vs. -14), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (95.7 vs. 97.0) all pointing toward a looming (or present) growth slowdown. Consumer expectations continue to be weakest since 2013, while present situation figures are the lowest since April 2021. Earnings added to the malaise. Shopify reported plans to cut staff, continuing last week’s theme from major tech earnings. However, after the close, Microsoft missed estimates but shares climb more than +4% in after-hours trading on the back of an optimistic forecast, while Alphabet’s shares were around +5% higher after hours as their ad revenues look to be more resilient than some of their tech peers. That has pointed to a more optimistic open today, with S&P 500 futures +0.72% higher and NASDAQ futures +1.33% higher.

Elsewhere, the Presidents Biden and Xi will speak Thursday. The reportedly ‘robust’ agenda does not include tariffs, as of yet. One to keep an eye on once we’re through the Fed.

Heading into the open, the moves in the US and European equities reverberated across Asia overnight with all the equity markets trading in negative territory. The Hang Seng (-1.25%) is the largest underperformer across the region with the Kospi (-0.58%), the CSI (-0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) and the Nikkei (-0.13%) all lagging.

Australia’s inflation rose +6.1% y/y in the June quarter (v/s +6.3% expected), the fastest annual pace in more than 30 years as food and energy costs increased, accelerating from last quarter’s +5.1% rate. Elsewhere, China’s industrial profits rebounded +0.8% y/y in June, recovering from a -6.5% decline in May as factory activity resumed in major manufacturing hubs.

The FOMC looms large in the day ahead, but US pending home sales, inventories, and goods trade balance data will also be released, along with consumer confidence figures in Germany, France, and Italy, and Chinese industrial profits. The day is chock full with earnings as well, including: Meta, T-Mobile, Qualcomm, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Kering, Iberdrola, Lam Research, Mercedes-Benz, Boston Scientific, Shopify, Ford, Kraft Heinz, BASF, Universal Music Group, Danone, Hilton, Vici, Spotify, Credit Suisse

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

TTF driven higher by Nord Stream 1 reductions while NQ outperforms – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 06:11 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board continuing the MSFT & GOOG driven early APAC action amidst numerous European earnings
  • US futures are firmer across the board though the NQ +1.4% outperforms amid those after-market developments though participants are looking to the FOMC
  • Dutch TTF Aug’22 is the standout commodity mover, amid a reduction in physical flows through Nord Stream 1; thus far, TTF has printed a high of EUR 228/mWh.
  • FX has the USD edging off with Cable nearing 1.21 at best while EUR/USD eyes noted OpEx
  • Choppy performance for core debt while BTPs underperformed after S&P’s revision
  • US President Biden will speak to Chinese President Xi on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference. Earnings: Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing, and more.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference.
  • Earnings from Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing, and more.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

  • US President Biden will speak to Chinese President Xi on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
  • US House Speaker Pelosi to visit Japan in August, according to sources via Kyodo News.

NORD STREAM 1

  • Physical flows via Nord Stream 1 pipeline have fallen to 14.42mln KWH/H between 0900-1000BST (vs. 14.41mln KWH/H between 0800-0900BST; 27.77mln kWh/H between 05:00-06:00BST)
  • Since 07:00BST on Wednesday, 1.28MCM/hr, or circa. 20% of Nord Stream 1 maximum capacity has been transported in accordance with nominations, via Reuters citing Gascade.
  • Gazprom continues shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Wednesday’s volume is 42.2MCM (vs Monday’s 41.9MCM); Gazprom has informed Eni (ENI IM) that gas volumes of approx. 27MCM will be delivered on Wednesday, vs deliveries of 34MCM in recent days; Uniper (UN01 GY) says they are currently receiving 20% of nominated gas volumes from Gazprom.
  • Russian Kremlin says Gazprom is supplying as much gas to Europe as possible, cannot guarantee supplies if foreign equipment cannot be serviced due to sanctions

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have revised their August RBA calls to a 50bps hike (prev. 75bps hike) following the Australian Q2 CPI metrics.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board continuing the MSFT & GOOG driven early APAC action amidst numerous European earnings; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%.
  • US futures are firmer across the board though the NQ +1.4% outperforms amid those after-market developments though participants are looking to the FOMC.
  • Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.21 (exp. 1.29), Revenue 69.70bln (exp. 70.04bln).Google advertising 56.29bln, (exp. 55.91bln). CFO said FX impact to be even greater in the current Q, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC) +3.5% in the pre-market
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 2.23 (exp. 2.29/2.29 GAAP), Revenue 51.9bln (exp. 52.45bln). Intelligent Cloud revenue 20.91bln (exp. 21.07bln). Guides FY23 revenue double digits sales growth, FY23 FX impact of 4-points decrease in revenue growth, via its conference call. (Newswires) +3.8% in the pre-market
  • Visa Inc (V) Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.74/1.73 GAAP), Revenue 7.3bln (exp. 7.06bln). (Newswires) Co. seeing no evidence of a pullback in consumer spending. Unch. in the pre-market
  • PayPal (PYPL) – Activist Investor Elliot Management reportedly holds a stake in PayPal, size unknown, according to WSJ citing sources. (WSJ)
  • Twitter (TWTR) said it significantly slowed hiring in Q2 2022; in 2021 and H1 2022, macro factors had a negative impact on, and may negative impact in future periods, such as advertising revenue. Twitter is to hold shareholder vote on Musk deal on September 13th at 18:00BEST/13:00EDT, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC)
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Buck backs off before the Fed and US data in the lead up, DXY slips into range around 107.000 and just shy of yesterday’s 107.290 recovery high.
  • Sterling secures firmer foothold above 1.2000 vs Dollar and maintains momentum through key technical level against Euro, EUR/GBP cross probes 0.8400 after breach of 200 DMA.
  • EUR/USD retains 1.0100+ status as Greenback wanes and hefty option expiry interest supplements underlying bids, 1.84bln rolls off at the strike.
  • Aussie sags as mixed inflation data sparks round of revised RBA hike forecasts from 75bp to half point, AUD/USD around 0.6950 following test of Fib resistance just under 0.7000 on Tuesday.
  • Loonie pares losses as crude prices settle down and Nokkie makes clean break of 10.0000 vs Euro, USD/CAD closer to 1.2850 than 1.2900.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0000 (1.18BN), 1.0100 (1.84BN), 1.0125 (650M), 1.0150 (497M), 1.0200-10 (1.63BN), 1.0250-55 (2.13BN), 1.0270 (532M), 1.0300 (1.06BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Whip-saw trade in debt ahead of the Fed as Bunds veer from 156.07 to 155.36, Gilts between 117.67-12 parameters and T-note within a 113-31/119-19+ range
  • 2032 German tap and 2051 UK linker sale sluggish
  • Italian BTPs underperform amidst the political void and S&P revising the sovereign’s outlook to stable from positive after interim ratings review
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Dutch TTF Aug’22 is the standout commodity mover, amid a reduction in physical flows through Nord Stream 1; thus far, TTF has printed a high of EUR 228/mWh.
  • Crude benchmarks modestly firmer, but significantly more contained.
  • NEC Director Deese said there are no plans to continue SPR releases beyond the originally set out 6mth period, according to Reuters.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -1mln), Distillates -0.6mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline -1.1mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
  • US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo met with European counterparts to discuss a price cap on Russian oil.
  • Chinese National Energy Administration expects energy consumptions growth to increase in H2, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold has staged a recovery on the session from earlier lows of USD 1713/oz; however, the yellow metal remains well within recent ranges and continues to move predominantly as a function of USD action.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK PM-candidate Sunak has pledged to cut VAT on energy bills in a change of strategy, according to The Times.

DATA RECAP:

  • UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jul) 4.4% (Prev. 3.1%).
  • German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Aug) -30.6 vs. Exp. -28.9 (Prev. -27.4, Rev. -27.7)

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly subdued session, but within narrow intraday ranges.
  • ASX 200 moved between gains and losses with the Healthcare sector leading the gains whilst Metals & Mining lagged.
  • Nikkei 225 was similarly contained whilst Canon shares fell as much as 3% post-earnings.
  • KOSPI declined with Apple-supplier SK Hynix warning of a slowing in memory chip demand in H2.
  • Hang Seng underperformed with Alibaba retracing yesterday’s gains whilst the property sector was also hit.
  • Shanghai Comp was caged following another modest net liquidity drain by the PBoC, whilst multiple sources suggested the Biden-Xi call is to take place on Thursday.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Hong Kong will have no choice but to raise interest rates, although the pace or scale need not follow US hikes and it is unlikely to trigger the kind of property market crisis seen in 1998, according to SCMP citing the Hong Kong Financial Secretary.
  • Magnitude 7.2 earthquake hits Philippines region of Luzon, according to ESMC; no tsunami warnings issue, according to Reuters.
  • China overnight rate fell below 1% for the first time since last year, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6.7731 vs exp. 6.7680 (prev. 6. 7483); weakest fix since May 17th.
  • China locked down almost 1 million residents Wuhan city’s Jiangxia district, according to Bloomberg.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Industrial profit YY (Jun) +3.9% (Prev. -6.50%); YTD (Jun) 1.00% (Prev. 1.00%)
  • Australian CPI QQ (Q2) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.1%); YY (Q2) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 5.1%)
  • Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q2) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.0%); YY (Q2) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 3.2%)
  • Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q2) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (Q2) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 3.7%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.68 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 235.84 OR 1,13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 60.54 OR % 0.22.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.18%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7512//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7480//    /Oil DOWN TO 96.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 105.42// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.68 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 235.84 OR 1.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 60.54 OR % 0.22.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

/GERMANY//GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU//update

The Siemen’s turbine has still not arrived as Gazprom flows are now just 20% of capacity

(zerohedge)

European Gas Soars As Russia Throttles NS1 Flows To just 20% Of Capacity

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 09:48 AM

Less than 24 hours after EU countries approved the European executive’s emergency natural gas consumption proposed cut of 15%, Russia further throttled gas supplies Wednesday, bringing deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to merely 20% of its total capacity, or roughly half of recent flows.

Reuters recorded that physical flows via Nord Stream 1 pipeline have fallen to 14.42mln KWH/H between 0900-1000BST (vs. 14.41mln KWH/H between 0800-0900BST; 27.77mln kWh/H between 05:00-06:00BST), noting further citing Germany’s gas network operator Gascade that since 07:00BST on Wednesday, 1.28MCM/hr – 20% of Nord Stream 1 maximum capacity has been transported in accordance with nominations. This sent prices soaring further to reach earlier all-time highs set immediately in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

The Kremlin was cited as saying Wednesday that it is supply “as much gas to Europe as possible” but again stressed it’s unable to guarantee supplies due to Western sanctions on vital equipment needed for proper maintenance and functioning.

Uniper and Italy’s Eni have acknowledged receiving less gas from Gazprom through the start of this week into today, also with German Economy Minister Robert Habeck saying amid the scramble to stave off full-blown emergency rationing measures, “It is true that Germany, with its dependence on Russian gas, has made a strategic mistake but our government is working… to correct this.”

Berlin accounts for 40% of all EU gas imports from Russia last year, and has been plunged into supply crisis since mid-June, when Gazprom initially halved its flows to the leading EU country (first cutting to 40% of capacity), with the federal government lately having to rescue its major gas importer Uniper with a $15 billion euro bailout.

Benchmark NatGas prices in Europe at the Dutch TTF hub:

…on track to reach new record closing high, after having already risen by more than a third on the week.

European gas prices Wednesday accelerated to reach earlier all-time highs just after Russia invaded Ukraine, rising 12% early in the day.



As FT also observes, “The European benchmark TTF contract has reached €220 a megawatt hour, leaving it on track to hit a new record closing high, exceeding the previous peak in the immediate wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

“The surge has left gas prices at roughly 10 times their level prior to the start of Russia’s squeeze on supplies last year. Gascade, Germany’s gas network operator, said flows on Nord Stream 1 had roughly halved to 20 per cent of capacity as of Wednesday morning,” notes FT.

And from the Russian side, some of the latest out of Gazprom’s executive leadership indicating the standoff over sanctioned foreign parts, crucial turbines in particular, looks to continue:

  • GAZPROM’S DEPUTY CEO MARKELOV: CURRENTLY, ONLY ONE GAS PROCESSING UNIT IS WORKING AT PORTOVAYA COMPRESSOR STATION AT NORD STREAM 1 GAS PIPELINE
  • MARKELOV: WE HAVEN’T RECEIVED THE ENGINE FROM SIEMENS
  • MARKELOV: THERE ARE SANCTIONS RISKS FOR ENGINES
  • MARKELOV: SIEMENS IS NOT WORKING TO SOLVE PROBLEMS

The head of Germany’s network regulator Klaus Mueller has meanwhile been making urgent appeals for households and industry to save gas as the country is on the brink of having to trigger emergency rationing measures. “The crucial thing is to save gas,” Mueller said. “I would like to hear less complaints but reports (from industries saying) we as a sector are contributing to this,” he said in an interview with broadcaster Deutschlandfunk.

END

GERMANY

A huge story: Chemical giant BASF prepares to slash Ammonia production in Germany amid the worsening natural gas crunch.  Ammonia is essential in the production of fertilizer and thus food production

(zerohedge)

BASF Prepares To Slash Ammonia Production In Germany Amid Worsening NatGas Crunch

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 08:30 AM

German chemicals company BASF SE paid an extra 800 million euros ($809.5 million) to keep its plants operating in the second quarter compared with a year earlier amid skyrocketing natural gas prices. The impact of high energy prices has forced the company to make a difficult decision: slash the production of ammonia, which could have potential consequences for farming to the food industry. 

“We are reducing production at facilities that require large volumes of natural gas, such as ammonia plants,” BASF Chief Executive Martin Brudermuller said in a conference call after an earnings report. 

Brudermuller said BASF would tap external suppliers to fill the deficit as German plants reduced output. He warned about potential supply disruptions that could boost fertilizer costs for farmers.

Reuters details how ammonia plays a critical role in manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers, plastic-making, and diesel exhaust fluid. A byproduct of ammonia production is high-purity carbon dioxide (CO2) which is heavily used in the food industry. 

The news of BASF reducing ammonia production because of soaring NatGas prices comes as Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC is expected to halve supplies via Nord Stream 1 to Europe to about 20% today. EU member states agreed Tuesday to reduce NatGas demand by 15% over the next eight months, though countries like Germany, without any liquefied natural gas (LNG) port terminals to replace Russian pipeline NatGas, might have to make more considerable sacrifices. 

Benchmark NatGas prices in Europe at the Dutch TTF hub hit their highest level since March. Prices have shot up 35% in a week, over 200 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), as Putin turns the screws on Europe by reducing pipeline capacity to Europe. 

“Chemical companies are the biggest industrial natural-gas users in Germany, and ammonia is the single most gas-intensive product within that industry,” Reuters said. 

Arne Rautenberg, a fund manager at Union Investment, said ammonia is a prime candidate by chemical companies to cut production first over the NatGas supply squeeze. 

“In the northern hemisphere, nitrogen fertilizer is applied primarily during the spring. It can also be produced in the United States and shipped to Europe,” Rautenberg said, adding that the CO2 supply for the food industry could experience disruptions. 

The chemical industry lobby VCI indicates German ammonia production has been curbed (some of which began last October) considerably because of soaring energy prices. This could soon impact industries that rely heavily on ammonia and ripple through the economy already facing recession. 

end

HUNGARY/RUSSIA/GAS

This is huge win for Hungary

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:47 PM (1 minute ago)
to

Hungary’s Foreign Minister just visited Moscow, for gas talks, with Russia immediately responding that Moscow will provide all Hungary’s energy necessities starting from the increased volumes of gas Hungary asked for recently. 

This means that not only will Hungary have adequate gas supply but it is a break from EU dictates from Brussels. Apart from the public breathing a sigh of relief, imagine what industry must think. It is quite possible Hungary will score investment as companies react to shortfalls in energy causing severe cutbacks and losses. 

If Germany or Italy bolts it will be game over for Brussels. I have no doubt that the Forex crowd in London is readying the knife on the Euro. 

We wait to see who follows Hungary to save their country. 

END 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

ISRAEL/RUSSIA

This happened in May 22 and is very surprising

(zerohedge)

Russia Fired On Israeli Jets Over Syria In “One-Off”: Israel’s Defense Chief

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 04:15 AM

On Tuesday Israel’s defense chief issued a surprise admission connected to the war in Syria, specifically related to the literally hundreds of strikes Israel’s air force has conducted on targets in Syria over the past few years.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz described an incident in May wherein Israeli military jets operating over Syria were engaged and fired on by a Russian anti-aircraft battery. He said the Russian missiles missed their target, downplaying it as a “one-off incident”. 

Israel has of late semi-regularly attacked positions in and around Damascus, especially to the south and near the Golan Heights, claiming to be targeting “Iranian assets” and weaponry. 

Last month for example, Syria was forced to halt all flights from Damascus international airport, the country’s largest, following Israeli airstrikes that destroyed runways and crucial infrastructure, earning severe condemnation from Moscow.

Reuters presents the context behind Defense Minister Gantz’s disclosure in the following

But Israel’s Channel 13 TV reported that, on May 13, a Russian-operated S-300 air defense battery fired on Israeli jets as they carried out a Syria sortie – without hitting any.

“It was a one-off incident,” Gantz told a conference hosted by Channel 13, when asked to confirm the report. The Russian launch happened when the aircraft “were no longer around”, he said.

The Syrian Army regularly seeks to repel Israeli raids via its own Russian-supplied anti-air defense systems, but the unprecedented aspect to the May incident is that it was an S-300 unit operated by the Russian military in Syria that targeted the Israeli aircraft. It may have been the Russians giving Israeli forces a severe and final warning.

Russia has been getting more forceful in its denunciations of these airstrikes, with a similar July 2 daytime attack that reportedly killed two Syrian civilians resulting in Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova saying the following: “We strongly condemn such irresponsible actions that violate the sovereignty of Syria and the basic norms of international law, and we demand their unconditional cessation.” 

Gantz, however, in his Tuesday exchange with reporters claimed that military-to-military coordination with Russia over Syria is “a situation that is stable right now, I think.” He added: “But we are always reviewing this story as if we only just began it now.”

END

IRAN

First 4 months of the Iranian year (beginning March 21) sees its oil revenues soar by 580%

(Paraskova/OiPrice.com)

Iran’s Oil Revenues Soar By 580% As Crude Prices Rally

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 08:50 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran’s revenues from exports of oil and condensate surged by 580% during the first four months of the current Iranian year that begins on March 21, Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, Seyyed Ehsan Khandouzi, said on Tuesday.   

Between March 21 and July 21, international crude oil prices have largely held above $100 per barrel after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian oil exports upended global trade flows.

“Due to the increase in oil exports and our new budget’s currency conversion rate, we saw a 580% increase in the treasury’s income from the export of oil and condensate in the first four months of this year,” the Iranian finance minister was quoted as saying by local news agency IRNA.

Overall, Iran’s budget income jumped by 48% in March-July compared to the same period of 2021, while government expenditures rose by 16%, the minister added.

“The government was focused on this issue to be able to earn a more stable income. This means that compensating the budget deficit was on the agenda of the government and it was realized in the first 4 months of this year,” the minister said.

Iran’s 12-month inflation rate hit 40% in July, Iranian statistics showed last week. Prices of goods have soared since the government removed some subsidies earlier this year.  

Despite the diplomatic impasse over the nuclear deal, Iran has been preparing to rejoin the global oil market. The country has boosted production, as well as exports to its main market, China. If a new deal is reached between Iran and the world powers, the flow of Iranian oil abroad could increase by between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, according to analysts.  

China has been the main outlet for Iranian crude oil exports since the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil industry in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the so-called Iranian nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  

end

IRAQ

Pro Sadr protesters storm the Iraqi parliament amid a record 290 day run without a government

(zerohedge)

Watch: Iraqi Protesters Storm Parliament Amid Record Run Without Government

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 02:46 PM

On Wednesday hundreds of followers of the hardline Iraqi Shia cleric, militia leader, and politician Muqtada al-Sadr overwhelmed security in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Wednesday, where they are able to breach and storm the country’s parliament building.

The protests came amid political friction which pits al-Sadr’s bloc, which won a majority as the largest faction in the 329-seat parliament during prior October elections, against the pro-Iran Coordination Framework faction. The latter group’s nomination for prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is being fiercely opposed by al-Sadr’s followers.

The high secured Green Zone has since the US invasion and occupation of Iraq been home to all major government branches, embassies and diplomatic missions, and international institutions. However, some local correspondents have suggested based on video to emerge of the protests that security seemed to stand down after being overwhelmed by the crowds.

There were reportedly no Iraqi lawmakers inside parliament at the time, with the crowds occupying the building and chanting political slogans.

Caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi demanded that the demonstrators “immediately withdraw” from the Green Zone, warning that he would send security to enforce “the protection of state institutions and foreign missions, and prevent any harm to security and order.”

The country’s politics have been gridlocked and essentially without a new government ever since the October voteReuters notes that “Iraq marked its longest post-election deadlock on Wednesday, as lawmakers’ failure to form a government hampers reforms needed for a country struggling to recover from decades of conflict.”

“More than nine months since an October election, lawmakers tasked with choosing a president and prime minister looked no closer to an agreement, bringing Iraq to a record 290 days without a head of state or cabinet,” the report describes.

END

HEZBOLLAH (LEBANON)/ISRAEL

Hezbollah in Lebanon is threatening to strike Israel gas production.  All hell will break loose if this happens

(zerohedge)

Hezbollah Threatens To Strike Israeli Gas Production Facilities

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 09:10 AM

A dispute between Lebanon and Israel over offshore drilling rights has devolved into threats against Israeli natural gas facilities leveled by the leader of Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah. 

“All fields are under threat…no Israeli target at sea or on land is out of the reach of the resistance’s precision missiles,” said Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in a Tuesday night interview. 

While Israel and Lebanon have no diplomatic relations — and are officially at war ever since Israel’s 1948 inception — the U.S. government has been brokering indirect talks over the maritime border dispute for nearly two years. At stake: A share of many billion dollars in revenue from a potentially gas-rich area in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coasts of the two countries. 

Noting that war isn’t his preferred option, Nasrallah said, “We seek to obtain our rights through pressure on the American and Israeli sides, especially in light of the continued deterioration of the economic situation in Lebanon.” Each country claims a 330-square-mile wedge on their maritime border. 

via EJP
Via EJP

Nasrallah had previously hinted at the potential for war over drilling in the Karish gas field, but Tuesday’s comments represented an escalation of the rhetoric:

“If the extraction of oil and gas from Karish begins in September before Lebanon obtains its right, we would be heading to ‘a problem’ and we’ll do anything to achieve our objective…No one wishes for war and the decision is in Israel’s hands, not in our hands.”

Israel has stepped up its defenses of the area, putting its military forces there on higher alert. Israel has also used indirect diplomatic channels to warn Hezbollah against following through on its threats, promising harsh retaliation by the IDF

Israeli Reserve Major General Yitzhak Brik said the threats must be taken seriously: “Hezbollah has about 100,000 missiles, and they have hundreds of UAVs directed at strategic targets, residential, and, of course, on Israel’s gas rigs. It is just a matter of time before this happens.”

Speaking to Israel’s Channel 12, former national security council chair Yaakov Amidor said

“If there’s no agreement [on Karish] when the time comes to extract the gas out from the sea, one must assume there’ll be a war. Hopefully there won’t be, but that can’t be the assumption.”

On July 2, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) shot down three Hezbollah drones en route to the Karish gas field, and published video of an intercept. Hezbollah said the drone probe was “only the beginning,” and was a response to Israeli violation of Lebanese airspace. 

Demonstrating Washington’s steady disinterest in even feigning impartiality, the current referee for the Israeli-Lebanese dispute is U.S. senior adviser for energy security Amos Hochstein, who was born in Israel to American parents and served in the IDF before moving to Washington to start a career in U.S. government.

Offshore gas projects figure heavily in Israel’s aspirations to become a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, and Hochstein has opposed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline by which Russia has sought to expand its own provision of gas to Europe. 

In 2019, Hochstein called the construction of Nord Stream 2 “the existential crisis facing Ukraine,” as he favorably shared a link to an article by Benjamin Schmitt that called for a “Washington-Brussels double play” to stop the pipeline. 


As you ponder the potential consequences of a Hezbollah strike, consider that:

  • Shia Hezbollah is regarded as a proxy of Israel’s enemy Iran, and Israel has long been determined to draw the United States into a war against Iran on Israel’s behalf.
  • Hezbollah is also strongly allied with the Assad regime in Syria — which has already been under periodic air attacks by Israel, including one this week that reportedly killed 3 and injured 7.
  • Syria is backed by Russia, which has military forces there. This week, Israel revealed that Russian forces directed anti-aircraft fire against Israeli jets in May, but missed. 
  • Syria is partially occupied by the U.S. military, following a failed campaign by the U.S. and other governments to use proxy forces that included Al Qaeda offshoots and ISIS to topple the Syrian government.
  • Syria is under threat of a planned Turkish military offensive against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the country’s north.
  • An Israeli-Lebanese war would likely inspire a new Palestinian uprising against apartheid Israel’s 55-year occupation of the West Bank and its economically devastating stranglehold on Gaza.

In short — a Hezbollah attack on Israel could cause all hell to break loose. 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Ron Paul: Ugly COVID Lies

Ron Paul……..

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 05:30 PM

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

After two years of unprecedented government tyranny in the name of fighting a virus, the prime instigators of this infamy are walking free, writing books, and openly pretending they never said the things they clearly said over and over.

Take Trump’s White House Covid response coordinator Deborah Birx, for example. She was, as the Brownstone Institute’s Jeffrey Tucker points out in a recent article, the principal architect of the disastrous “lockdown” policy that destroyed more lives than Covid itself. Birx knew that locking a country down in response to a virus was a radical move that would never be endorsed.

So, as she admits in her new book, she lied about it.

She sold the White House on the out-of-thin-air “fifteen days to slow the spread” all the while knowing there was no evidence it would do any such thing. As she wrote in her new book, Silent Invasion, “I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.”

She was playing for time with no evidence. As it turns out, she was also destroying the lives of millions of Americans. The hysteria she created led to countless businesses destroyed, countless suicides, major depressions, drug and alcohol addictions. It led to countless deaths due to delays in treatment for other diseases. It may turn out to be the most deadly mistake in medical history.

As she revealed in her book, she actually wanted to isolate every single person in the United States! Writing about how many people would be allowed to gather, she said: “If I pushed for zero (which was actually what I wanted and what was required), this would have been interpreted as a ‘lockdown’—the perception we were all working so hard to avoid.”

She wanted to prevent even two people from meeting. How is it possible that someone like this came to gain so much power over our lives? One virus and we suddenly become Communist China?

Last week in a Fox News interview she again revealed the extent of her treachery. After months of relentlessly demanding that all Americans get the Covid shots, she revealed that the “vaccines” were not vaccines at all!

“I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection,” she told Fox.

“And I think we overplayed the vaccines. And it made people then worry that it’s not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization.”

So when did she know this?

Did she know it when she told ABC in late 2020 that “this is one of the most highly-effective vaccines we have in our infectious disease arsenal. And so that’s why I’m very enthusiastic about the vaccine”?

If she knew all along that the “vaccines” were not vaccines, why didn’t she tell us? Because, as she admits in her book, she believes it’s just fine to lie to people in order to get them to do what she wants.

She admits that she employed “subterfuge” against her boss – President Donald Trump – to implement Covid policies he opposed. So it should be no surprise that she lied to the American people about the efficacy of the Covid shots.

The big question now, after what appears to be a tsunami of vaccine-related injuries, is will anyone be forced to pay for the lies and subterfuge? Will anyone be held to account for the lives lost for the arrogance of the Birxes and Faucis of the world?

END

EpochTimes

Warning by Ontario’s Dr. Moore of Myocarditis Risk After COVID Shot Comes Too Late

Rav Arora

July 22, 2022Updated: July 25, 2022

biggersmaller

Print

Commentary

On Twitter recently, COVID realists were supporting and cheering the public acknowledgement of vaccine risks in the young by Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore.

“We know there is a risk, a very small risk—1-in-5,000—that may get myocarditis,” Moore said at a news conference on July 13.

Finally, a public health official concedes vaccines carry a significant risk for the young! Not so fast. Most people viewing the clip didn’t realize Moore’s news conference was for the mass distribution of the fourth vaccine shot in Ontario. As CP24 reports, “Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore announced all fourth dose eligibility would be expanded to everyone 18 and up.”

A range of politicians and “medical experts” have exhorted the public to get the fourth dose. Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa recommends everyone eligible should get the latest immunization.

“Keeping up to date with your immunization is the best way to ensure you, your loved ones, and your community are protected from the virus and its variants,” she said. “While the third dose provides good protection of COVID-19, the fourth dose provides even better protection.”

By this logic, every new, rushed booster shot will provide “better protection” than the last and therefore everyone should get it. Yet this calculus is not as simple as public health bureaucrats make it out to be. Data across the world paints a complex picture. As Alex Berenson reports on Substack, a new Dutch health report finds the vaccinated population is at higher risk of hospitalization for COVID than the unvaccinated population.

“After seven months, vaccinated people in their 50s and 60s had a 68 percent higher risk of being hospitalized for COVID compared to the unvaccinated. They had a 41 percent higher risk of needing intensive care,” he wrote of the researchers’ findings.

“There was hardly any visible protective effect of the COVID-19 basic vaccination series against hospital and ICU—intensive care—intake,” the researchers wrote, as quoted by Berenson.

Even if such data is anomalous in some respect or ungeneralizable, it suggests that universally recommending more and more booster shots is, at the very least, unwise or experimental.

Ontario’s vaccine recommendations have been completely nonsensical throughout the pandemic. Consider the Ministry of Health’s baseless campaign to boost the entire adult and youth population:

“All individuals in Ontario aged ≥12 years of age are recommended to receive a first booster dose after completion of a primary COVID-19 vaccine series,” the ministry said on July 14.

What benefit does a healthy 23-year-old man with prior infection and two vaccine doses have to gain from a third jab? Does Dr. Moore have an answer to this question?

It has taken the second booster dose for Dr. Moore to acknowledge a risk that should have been widely publicized at the start of the primary series. Vaccine myocarditis—as I’ve written at length in two essays—is a significant and real risk in younger populations, specifically males between the ages of 15 and 30.

Knowledge of the incalculably low risk of COVID-19 in healthy individuals under 30 warranted comprehensive, long-term testing before universal recommendation. Instead, Ontario led the way in locking down the public, masking children, and recommending everyone get a booster with virtually non-existent clinical evidence.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

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end

Dr Paul Alexander

Post COVID vaccination: “SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S 1) Protein Persistence in SARS-CoV-2 Negative Post-Vaccination Individuals with Long COVID/ PASC-Like Symptoms”; elevations of sCD40L, CCL5, IL-6, and IL-8

Vaccinees have markers of platelet activation & pro-inflammatory cytokine production which may be driven by persistence of SARS-CoV-2 S 1 protein persistence in intermediate & non-classical monocytes

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 27

Bottom line is this: we are finding spike in the blood etc. 15 months post vaccine (publication to follow). The spike (synthetic) is from the COVID vaccine and we were lied to by the manufacturers and those involved who said it will not stay in the system and this would be one off etc. This study is indicating that those with long-COVID have persistent spike post-vaccination and show aberrant symptoms e.g. markers of platelet activation and pro-inflammatory cytokine production. In other words, the persistence of spike long-term and potential translation of spike from mRNA long-term in the vaccinated person, may account for the symptoms of long-COVID, at least in part. Further urgent study is needed to clarify these findings by Patterson et al.

SOURCE:

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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SARS-CoV-2 S1 Protein Persistence in SARS-CoV-2 Negative Post-Vaccination Individuals with Long COVID/ PASC-Like Symptoms

‘Background

We sought to determine the immunologic abnormalities in patients following SARS-CoV-2 vaccines who experience post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC)-like symptoms > 4 weeks post vaccination. In addition, we investigated whether the potential etiology was similar to PASC.

Design:

We enrolled 50 post-vaccination individuals who experience PASC-like symptoms, 10 healthy individuals, and 35 individuals post-vaccination without symptoms. We performed multiplex cytokine/chemokine profiling with machine learning as well as SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein detection on monocyte subsets using flow cytometry and mass spectrometry.

Results

We determined that post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms had similar symptoms to PASC patients. When analyzing their immune profile, post-vaccination individuals had statistically significant elevations of sCD40L, CCL5, IL-6, and IL-8. SARS-CoV-2 S1 and S2 protein were detected in CD16 + monocytes using flow cytometry and mass spectrometry on sorted cells.

Conclusions

Post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms exhibit markers of platelet activation and pro-inflammatory cytokine production which may be driven by the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein persistence in intermediate and non-classical monocytes.’

end

EBOLA Reston, 1989 (movie The Hot Zone); this was real; you did not know that something took place in Reston, Virginia that could have destroyed the entire world; EBOLA aerosolized killed all monkeys

In 1989, humanity dodged a bullet! humanity came close to being wiped out; we knew (I studied this as part of my epidemiology training) had it become aerosolized to humans, the game was over!

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 27

While you slept, you did not know humanity was in danger that night. Right there in Reston, Virginia.

The strain was aerosolized in those 1989 Reston Virginia, research monkeys from the Philippines, but not in humans. It was also not pathological to humans, like the deadly Zaire ebolavirus strain. So we dodged two bullets, 1) not aerosolized to humans and 2) not deadly. It was that simple and had it been aerosolized spread in humans in 1989, and had it been the deadly Zaire ebolavirus strain, then the reality was that humanity as a whole was threatened. It could have wiped us out! I mean the world! Those who were part of the response knew just how serious this was! This was no game and no movie, it was real! The US government responded at the level of US and global threat this was!

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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The True Story of Ebola in Reston, Virginia

‘To contain the spread of Ebola Reston, the mutated strain of Ebola Zaire, the Army chose the bio-hazard operation of killing all the monkeys, bagging them, incinerating their carcasses, and chemically cleaning and fumigating the building with formaldehyde gas. Their mission was to safeguard the population, euthanize the animals humanely (anesthetic, sedative, and a lethal drug), and gather samples for research from liver and spleen in order to identify the strain and how it traveled. The entire operation was done in biohazard Level 4 suits. To a trained eye, the badly liquefied organs and tissues, the red eyes, frozen faces, and slacking muscles left no doubt that the monkeys died of Ebola. By December 7, 1989, four hundred and fifty monkeys were euthanized, some already very sick and some harboring the virus. (pp. 212-213)’.

‘Strangely, an animal caretaker, “John Coleus,” who was doing a necropsy on a dead monkey, cut his thumb with a bloody scalpel, which is a major exposure to Ebola. Everyone expected him to die, but he never got sick. The virus entered his blood stream. The other two animal caretakers, however, did not cut themselves. The virus entered their bodies through “contact with lungs; everyone at USAMRIID concluded that Ebola can spread through the air.” (p. 254).’

‘On October 4, 1989, the Quarantine Unit received a shipment of 100 monkeys from a Philippine facility.[4] By November, nearly one-third of the animals had died – a much higher percentage than normal – of mysterious causes.[5] Dan Dalgard, the consulting veterinarian of the unit, was alarmed and contacted the US Army Medical Research Institute (USAMRIID). Located at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Maryland, the USAMRIID focuses on the development of medical solutions to diseases in hopes of protecting soldiers.[6] Dalgard talked to Peter Jahrling, a virologist at USAMRIID, who told him to send a few samples of the dead monkeys.

Fourteen days later, officials realized what they were dealing with. An intern at USAMRIID, Thomas Geisbert, analyzed the samples from Reston and found a filovirus-thread virus. The next day, Jahrling tested the samples twice and they tested positive for Zaire ebolavirus, the most dangerous Ebola strand.

“We have a national emergency in our hands,” General Philip K. Russell, the Major General of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command, told colleagues. “This is an infectious threat of major consequences.”[7]

Ebola Comes to Reston

end

Spike protein 15-16 months post-acute infection? Patterson et al.: “Persistence of SARS CoV-2 S1 Protein in CD16+ Monocytes in Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) up to 15 Months Post-Infection”

levels of both intermediate (CD14+, CD16+) & non-classical monocyte (CD14Lo, CD16+) significantly elevated in PASC patients up to 15 months post-acute infection vs healthy controls (P=0.002 & P=0.01)

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 27

Bottom line: they all lied to us, CDC, NIH, NIAID etc., Fauci, Francis Collins, Albert Bourla etc. and now it seems likely spike persists a long time and maybe life long from vaccine if it persists that long from infection. This is the issue and we just do not know. For how long and where? What are the long term implications. They devised the lipid-nano particle fatty ball that encases the mRNA and the mRNA itself in a way to evade the immune system and to be stable and to protect the mRNA, and to effectively get to the far regions of the body. They did not study it for the vaccine/injection/inoculation and this is where the FDA failed us. The FDA failed to demand the safety data from the vaccine makers. This helps explain long-COVID as the spike is the toxic business end of the virus, whether from natural infection or vaccine (spike along manufactured by our own cells). Spike persisting that long is a huge problem especially if it happens post injection.

SOURCE:

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe now

Persistence of SARS CoV-2 S1 Protein in CD16+ Monocytes in Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) up to 15 Months Post-Infection

“The recent COVID-19 pandemic is a treatment challenge in the acute infection stage but the recognition of chronic COVID-19 symptoms termed post-acute sequelae SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) may affect up to 30% of all infected individuals. The underlying mechanism and source of this distinct immunologic condition three months or more after initial infection remains elusive. Here, we investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein in 46 individuals. We analyzed T-cell, B-cell, and monocytic subsets in both severe COVID-19 patients and in patients with post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC).

The levels of both intermediate (CD14+, CD16+) and non-classical monocyte (CD14Lo, CD16+) were significantly elevated in PASC patients up to 15 months post-acute infection compared to healthy controls (P=0.002 and P=0.01, respectively). A statistically significant number of non-classical monocytes contained SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein in both severe (P=0.004) and PASC patients (P=0.02) out to 15 months post-infection. Non-classical monocytes were sorted from PASC patients using flow cytometric sorting and the SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein was confirmed by mass spectrometry. Cells from 4 out of 11 severe COVID-19 patients and 1 out of 26 PASC patients contained ddPCR+ peripheral blood mononuclear cells, however, only fragmented SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in PASC patients. No full length sequences were identified, and no sequences that could account for the observed S1 protein were identified in any patient. That non-classical monocytes may be a source of inflammation in PASC warrants further study.”

end

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

VACCINE INJURY/

SADS

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello7:14 PM (3 hours ago)
to me

https://www.theepochtimes.com/sudden-adult-death-syndrome-sads-doctors-trying-to-determine-why-young-people-suddenly-dying-facts-matter_4615977.html

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Treasonous Biden and the Green Agenda is Shipping Gas OUT of the United States – War on the American PeopleJuly 26, 2022 5:05 pmU.S. President Biden’s Administration continues to risk national security by taking millions of barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and shipping it abroad to Asia (including China) and Europe. And this situation just grew much worse, as today it was announced that the Biden Administration has actually shipped MORE liquid natural gas (LNG) to Europe than the U.S. even promised! Total exports of LNG to Europe have now exceeded total exports to Europe for ALL of 2021. This is astounding news given the fact Natural Gas prices are soaring to (so far) 14-year highs today, due to Russia cutting back on natural gas flow to Europe via the Nord 1 Stream pipeline. Last week, Germany and other European nations breathed a collective sigh of relief, as Russia turned the Nord 1 pipeline back on after maintenance work, against fears that they would not. It was only turned on to allow about 40% of its capacity to Europe, the same amounts as before they shut it down completely for maintenance earlier this month (July, 2022), which was already causing energy shortages in Europe. But then a few days later, it was announced that another turbine required maintenance, and that they were further reducing the flow to now only 20%. Now, natural gas prices are already at a 14-year high, and production in the U.S. has fallen as the Freeport liquefied natural gas plant in Texas, one of the largest U.S. operators of liquefied natural gas, will remain offline until almost the end of the year after a fire at their facility in June. Shipping U.S. natural gas to Europe as payment for their involvement in the Ukraine War while supplies are dwindling in the U.S., is a threat to national security, as we are obviously now in a “Proxy War” with Russia. How is this not a treasonous act?Read More…

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(KOOPMAN)

Rabo: A Generation Of European Policymakers Have Gambled Their Continent’s Energy Security

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 12:11 PM

By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Faith

The two-horse race to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is in full swing. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Chancellor Rishi Sunak have until the end of August to convince the Tory ‘selectorate’ why they are best suited to lead their party towards the next general election, which isn’t due until January 2025 unless an earlier one is called. The votes of the 160,000+ members will have an outsized impact on the country’s direction in the next two and a half years.

The leadership race has quickly morphed into a war of ideas. This is probably prompted by the fact that the outgoing leader had so few of them, but it also echoes some very deep divisions within the Conservative party. The two candidates have some diametrically opposed convictions on the economy, leading to rather testy exchanges.

Broadly speaking, Rishi Sunak is running as the candidate of the establishment, as a safe pair of hands that offers fiscal responsibility, a realistic focus on the seriously difficult economic conditions, and essentially a departure from his own statist response to the pandemic. Even as he advocated and voted for Leave in 2016, he appears at least somewhat mindful of the negative economic impact of Brexit. His views are broadly aligned with the New Right’s fiscal principles and economic ideas. He is also not shying away from some of the more ‘Osbornian’ idioms such as “putting debt on the country’s credit card”. This (false) household budget analogy was used to raise public support for austerity in the early-2010s. The ‘hard money’ ideas that have been floated by Sunak broadly fall within the market-friendly realm, and actually smell of a return to the pre-2016 era.

He will also be in big trouble if he continues to promote ‘sensible’ or ‘fact-based’ Toryism. He has been the favourite among the MPs, but needs to take a more ‘fact-free’ stance sooner than later if he wants to take away the initiative from Liz Truss. In her first week of proper campaigning, she has expressed her desire to swiftly cut taxes worth more than £30 billion –to be funded by additional borrowing– in order to jumpstart the economy and to avoid a (we think inevitable) recession. She wants the “biggest change in economic policy for 30 years”, rails against economic orthodoxies and rubbishes the views of economists, who almost all agree that an immediate boost to demand relative to current supply conditions will mostly add to near-term inflationary pressures. It could force the hand of the Bank of England to raise rates much further than under Sunak’s hard money approach – effectively ensuring that Truss’ brief sugar rush eventually leads to a tired, nauseous and bloated feeling.

Even as there is a clear case for a healthier fiscal/monetary policy mix, the UK’s near-term options are much more limited than Truss wants the Tory membership to believe. She places great faith in the Laffer curve, a visual representation often used to imply that lower tax rates generate stronger growth and consequentially higher tax revenues, so that these cuts magically pay for themselves. It is also a convenient trick to reconcile the opposing demands of being both the party of a fiscally ‘responsible’ government and the party in favour of low taxes. She knows how to square a circle: note that she endorsed Osborne’s austerity and campaigned vigorously for Remain in 2016. Her opinions are fluid, her ideological commitments soft. But it is precisely this reorientation from ‘defeatism’ towards ‘faith’ that makes her the ‘Boris continuity candidate’, the favourite of the party’s right wing and, consequentially, the likely winner of this election.

A generation of European policymakers have gambled their continent’s energy security on faith in Russia as a reliable supplier of natural gas; a bet that has now turned very, very sour. There was another slew of negative headlines yesterday surrounding gas supply to Europe, with Russia continuing to cut flows in such a way that it first increases leverage, volatility and uncertainty, and then creates the risk for real gas shortages in Europe over the winter. This uncertainty has pushed the European Union to come to an agreement for all 27 members to voluntarily cut use of natural gas by 15% from August to March 2023. It is the competence of the member states to find actual ways on how to implement this, as all will have different industries and interest groups that they want to shield, but the cuts could be made binding with more heavy-handed measures in a supply emergency.

Demand destruction due to exorbitant prices will do much of the heavy lifting, but extremely tight supplies are still expected to persist. The front-month Dutch TTF contract is closing in on the levels reached when the war started, with German power prices for next year reaching new highs of 380 euros a megawatt-hour. This will see electricity turning from a utility into a luxury good for many Europeans, while it severely damages industrial competitiveness even before any more heavy-handed decisions to ration energy use will be made.

The IMF cut its forecast for growth in the euro area to 2.6% from 2.8% in 2022 and to a still faithful 1.2% from 2.3% in 2023, but the risks to this forecast are “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside”. Expect more downward revisions to growth to show up next time; it has been our base case for a while now that the continent faces a recession this winter. If the remaining hopeful investors start to lose faith too, and S&P’s revision of Italy’s outlook is just another case in point, a moment could be reached when growth fears overtake those of inflation. Even large policy rate increases may then fail to lend much support to the currency, while leading only to further flattening in core rate curves. We therefore see risk that EUR/USD could drop as low as 0.95 over the next few months.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

My goodness:  the uSA actually sold 6 million barrels of SPR oil to Hunter Biden tied Chinese firm

(Fu/EpochTimes)

US Actually Sold 6 Million Barrels From SPR To Hunter Biden-Tied China Firm

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 05:10 PM

Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Biden administration has sold nearly 6 million barrels of oil from the U.S. strategic reserve to an entity tied with the Chinese Communist Party, records show.

From September 2021 to July, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded three crude oil contracts with a combined value of roughly $464 million to Unipec America, the U.S. trading arm of Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec, according to a review by The Epoch Times of the DOE documents. A Chinese firm with ties to Hunter Biden had made an investment in the national oil giant.

The sale would tap 5.9 million barrels in total from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to export to the Chinese firm. The latest contract was unveiled on July 10, consisting of 950,000 barrels sold for around $113.5 million.

The two most recent sales to Unipec came out of an emergency drawdown of the U.S. oil stockpile, initiated under President Joe Biden on March 31 in what he said would offset the loss of Russian oil in global markets and tame rising fuel costs at home.

But the Unipec contracts have been a subject of heavy criticism since the firm’s connections to the younger Biden came into focus in recent weeks. With Americans nationwide still reeling from the $5 per gallon gas prices in June, the selling of oil reserves to foreign adversaries such as China is at odds with U.S. energy and security needs, Republican lawmakers and analysts have said.

“Biden is draining our strategic reserves at an unprecedented rate. This is an abuse of the SPR, far beyond its intended purpose. Sending U.S. petroleum reserves to foreign adversaries is wrong, and it undermines our national security,” Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) told The Epoch Times.

What the United States should do, he argued, is to “unleash American energy production and ensure that our strategic reserves are stocked and able to meet the demands of a national emergency.”

The oil auction is price competitive, and contracts are awarded to the highest bidder. Unipec, a consistent participant in the previous U.S. crude oil sales, secured 1.9 million barrels over the past three months through two contracts it won on April 21 and July 10.

The DOE also sold 4 million barrels to Unipec last fall during a Congressionally-mandated sale.

Sales to Unipec appear to fall in the lower price range among the successful buyers, a review of DOE contracts by The Epoch Times shows. For the 2021 contractUnipec paid about $63 for each barrel, about seven dollars lower than the trading price at the time, and more than two dollars short of the highest price from other buyers in the sale.

The April and July purchases cost Unipec $103.3 and $119.5 per barrel respectively. The highest prices offered, by comparison, were $111.25 and $125.1.

Unprecedented Drawdown

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, with four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana designed to alleviate significant oil supply shortages in times of major geopolitical events or natural disasters.

This oil reserve has seen a steep decline over the past year, more notably since Biden, blaming Russia’s Ukraine war for the “price hike at the pump,” in March ordered an oil withdrawal at a rate of 1 million barrels per day for six months to curb gas prices. The planned sale of about 180 million barrels marked the biggest drawdown in the reserve’s over-four-decade history and is set to cut the U.S. backup oil supply by about a third.

The inventory stood at 474.5 million barrels as of July 22, marking a 34 percent drop from its peak of 726.6 million, and some 90 million lower than the oil level from late March.

The DOE on May 5 announced a “long-term buy back plan” to repurchase 60 million barrels in fall through “a competitive, fixed-price bid process.” The delivery date, the DOE said, will take place “in future years when prices are anticipated to be significantly lower,” likely after the fiscal year 2023.  More buybacks would follow after this first tranche of purchases, it added.

But releasing oil reserves at this magnitude carries risks, according to Abhi Rajendran and Robert Johnston, two research scholars on global energy policy at Columbia University. For one, there’s no guarantee that oil prices will fall when the government moves to refill the stock. Further, the diminution of oil supply may cause the market to price in a greater premium for wars and other supply shocks, resulting in higher prices for longer, they said in a Q&A on April 1.

Scrutiny

On Capitol Hill, Republican lawmakers have been watching the oil sales with growing alarm.

On July 20, a total of 206 House Republicans voted in support of a legislative amendment aimed at preventing the Biden administration from exporting petroleum to entities with Chinese Communist Party ties.

It does not make sense that we are using our already depleted energy supplies to help China build up their own strategic reserves,” said Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), in a speech rallying support for the proposal.

China is the world’s largest importer of oil. As the West turns away from Russia’s oil due to the Ukraine war, China has been quietly snapping up Russian resources at steep discounts. From March through June, it spent over $25 billion on Russian oil, gas, and coal, nearly doubling the amount from the same period a year earlier, the latest customs data show. The sales volume propelled Russia to become China’s top oil supplier for two straight months from May, displacing Saudi Arabia.

The GOP-led measure was overruled after their 219 Democratic counterparts unanimously voted against it.

The same day, 20 Republican members on the House Committee on Oversight and Reform wrote (pdf) to the Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm requesting an immediate briefing and all documents related to the administration’s decision to sell U.S. oil reserves. They noted that the Chinese oil giant Sinopec, the parent organization of Unipec, has been linked to the president’s second son Hunter Biden, through the state-backed Chinese private equity firm BHR Partners, which became a stakeholder of Sinopec in 2014.

Read more here…

END

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

SRI LANKA

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0163 UP  0.0034 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY GREEN 

USA/ YEN 136.71   DOWN 0.256 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.20701 UP   0.0035

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.68 POINTS DOWN  0.605%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 235.84 PTS OR 1.13% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.27%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 235.84 PTS OR  1.13% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.68 PTS UP 0.05% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.18% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 60.54 OR 0.22%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1722.20

silver:$18.83

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.74  DOWN 0.25  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.05%  UP 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.199% UP  1     AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.13%// UP 2   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.41  UP 7   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.9355% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0130  UP  .0001    or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 137.21 UP 0.245  OR YEN DOWN 25  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2042  UP  0.0002 OR  2 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0008 OR 8 BASIS pts  to 1.2884

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7586  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7592

TURKISH LIRA:  17.89  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.199

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  2.769% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.006 DOWN 0 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 107.50 UP 1   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 47.63 PTS OR  0.65%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 62.00  POINTS OR 0.51%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 52.25 PTS OR 0.84% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 64.10 OR 0.79%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 331.75 PTS OR  1.57%

WTI Oil price 97.26   12: EST

Brent Oil:  106.74  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  59.91  UP 0  AND 5/8       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.9355

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.02003 UP .0073     OR  73 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.21650 UP .01304  or  130 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.57  DOWN 0.417//YEN UP 42 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2816 DOWN 0.0060 (CDN dollar UP 60  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 97.76

Brent OIL:  107.16

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.807 DOWN 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.027  UP 2  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.89

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.885   UP 0 AND   67/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 434.46 PTS OR 1.37 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 514.57 PTS OR 4.26%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.22 DOWN 1.47 PTS (75.95)%

GLD: 160.04 UP 1.63 PTS OR 1.02%

SLV/ 17.60 UP 44 CENTS OR 2.56%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar As Fed Confirms ‘Bad News Is Great News’ Again

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Markets were all relatively behaving themselves up to Fed Chair Powell’s presser. The statement was shrugged off as a nothingburger but as Powell began speaking – beginning with a focus on inflation – he flipped and offered the junkie-market just the fix it needed: “likely appropriate to slow increases at some point” and any further increases will be “data dependent.”

Hawkish statement… Dovish presser.

Finally, Powell said “he doesn’t see US in recession”, and – toeing the Biden admin line – proclaimed, that he takes the first estimate for Q2 GDP (due tomorrow) “with a grain of salt.”

What that translates to is simple…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1552362806401433605&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-crypto-soar-fed-confirms-bad-news-great-news-again&sessionId=97ede4c0a5704ffdcf32dad4e25775d9f4250970&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

Powell’s words sent rate-hike expectations tumbling dovishly…

Source: Bloomberg

And the markets all went full ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ after that…

The largest buy program since March 2021 rolled through stocks as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it will probably be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point.

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were already higher ahead of the Powell promises but exploded higher afterwards:

As a reminder, the Nasdaq 100 has been insanely bullish on recent Fed days:

  • Today: +4.3%
  • June 15: +2.49%
  • May 4: +3.41%
  • March 16: +3.7%

Gold shot higher on the dovish talk…

Cryptos exploded to the upside with Bitcoin approaching $23,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And bond yields plunged at the short-end…

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-end of the curve underperformed the short-end (30Y +3bps, 2Y -8bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

…sending the yield curve significantly steeper (2s30s un-inverted)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the scale, the dollar was clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were notably higher today with WTI back at $98, erasing yesterday’s losses…

US NatGas prices fell today…

Finally, we note just how massively dovishly divergent the market is from The Fed’s Dot-Plot…

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed really pivot that hard from its inflation-fighting stance?

END

END

I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC

Fed Hikes 75bps: Remains “Highly Attentive” To Inflation But Cautions Economy “Softening”

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 02:06 PM

Since the last FOMC Statement on June 15th, we have witnessed the biggest combined stock-bond rally in more than two decades – Stocks and bonds have soared in the last month, the dollar rallied, but gold has been clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, fixed-income and equity bulls are likely expecting that Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish mission will be tempered by signs inflation has peaked as an economic downturn nears – a wager not without significant risk.

“The market has shifted to bad-news-is-good-news again, the whole idea that central banks will pivot because the data is so bad,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

“We’re going back to a template that we know well.”

On the other side, wagering on a friendly Fed is too premature a bet for Ajay Rajadhyaksha, a strategist at Barclays Plc. The way he sees it, policy officials would try to avoid the mistake they made in April. That month, central bankers talked down the size of rate hikes that would be ultimately needed, prompting bond traders to question the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target. Treasury yields spiked, spurring losses across assets. The S&P 500 dropped almost 9% for the worst month since the pandemic crash. 

“The Fed has seen what happens when it prematurely declares victory over inflation and is unlikely to repeat that mistake,” said Rajadhyaksha.

“Stocks and bonds are both hoping that the Fed will pivot away from its commitment to overtightening. It’s a hope that is likely to be dashed this week.”

Interestingly, full-cycle rate-hike expectations have actually slipped dovishly (although they spiked pre-FOMC on the WSJ leak), and subsequent rate-cut expectations have soared (to almost 5 rate-cuts now)…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 100bps hike today have crashed in the last two weeks and the odds of a 75bps hike in September have also tumbled. Dec 2022 now has a mere 50% chance of a 25bps hike priced in…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now dramatically more dovish than The Fed’s latest dotplot…

Source: Bloomberg

Seen more simply, the market has pulled the peak Terminal Rate higher and sooner and the subsequent rate-cut trajectory dramatically more aggressive since the last FOMC statement…

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that the market has dragged forward The Fed Pivot – the question is, will Powell push back against that, or not?

“What appears to be missing is a ‘green light’ that would allow macro investors to go all in on these trades,” according to Viraj Patel, a strategist at Vanda Research.

“One common missing ingredient is a clear dovish Fed pivot – which could come as early as this week if US policy makers acknowledge the global growth concerns starting to dominate markets.”

So – what exactly did The Fed do…

  • The Fed unanimously hiked rates by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25%-2.5%, in line with expectations.
  • FOMC acknowledges that “spending and production have softened,” yet also affirms that “job gains have been robust in recent months.”
  • Russia’s war in Ukraine is adding “upward pressure” on inflation as well as weighing on economic activity, the Fed says.
  • The FOMC repeats that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks.”

We can’t help but read the line focus on Russia driving inflation as a pathetic nod to the Biden administration and pure ignorance of the fact that inflation was exploding higher long before Putin’s moves…

A quick reaction from Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research:

“All I learned from the statement: The Fed marked down its growth assessment and still ended up going as much as it did in June.”

The statement offers no clues about what the Fed will do at its September meeting: traders will be looking to Chair Powell s remarks for a guide here.

Read the full Redline below:

end

Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s Stagflationary Statement

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 02:35 PM

The very first sentence of the FOMC statement unexpectedly downgraded the state of the US economy: “Recent indicators of spending and production have softened.”

The third sentence, however, observed the elevated inflation (which the Fed naturally blamed on Putin because otherwise Biden would fire Powell): “Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

This, as Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta put it best, means that “the Fed marked down its growth assessment and still ended up going as much as it did in June.”

Translation: stagflation is here, and it is persistent.

For those who missed our extended kneejerk response to the FOMC statement, here is a snap analysis courtesy of Newsquawk

The FOMC lifted rates by 75bps to 2 25-2.50%. as was expected taking rates back to neutral for the first time since 2019. The only major tweak to the statement was its reassessment of the economy the Fed now acknowledges that “recent indicators of spending and production has softened”‘ (recall it previously said that overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter’). This change was to be expected given the softening in many key macro indicators Going in to the rate decision a very small minority of analysts were suggesting that the Fed could slow the pace of its balance sheet normalization, but the central bank has opted against doing so. The statement offers no clues about what the Fed will do at its September meeting: traders will be looking to Chair Powell s remarks for a guide here Money market pricing still expects the Fed will lift rates to 3 25-3.50% by the end of the year

Not enough? Below are some more hot takes from various Wall Street analysts:

Peter Bookcvar, Bleakly Financial Group

“The statement was a big yawner given that there were only modest changes to it relative to the June meeting.”

Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital’s chief investment strategist:

“There are few surprises in the 75-bps rate increase and the accompanying Fed statement. But one thing is clear — the Fed still thinks this economy can withstand ‘ongoing increases’ in interest rates because while the economy is slowing, jobs growth is not yet stalling out. If there is any sense of an upcoming Fed pivot, there are no hints of it in this statement yet and looks like the Fed sees a runway to continue to raise rates.”

Sarah Hunt, portfolio manager at Alpine Woods Capital:

They see some weakness in labor markets, but also see the high inflation numbers, so it’s a very mixed situation since the ‘strong labor economy’ has been the justifier for faster moves. And a slowing labor economy may be what they want some signs of but they don’t want that to go too far.”

Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights:

“Despite the downgrading of current economic conditions, which was expected, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chair repeat the idea that a 50-75 basis point move is the most likely path at the September meeting.”

Bloomberg economics”

“The unanimous FOMC decision to raise the interest rate by 75 basis at the July meeting sent a clear message: The Fed is nowhere close to declaring victory over inflation. While many are worried that the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, Fed officials appear to see the glass as half full, with a strong labor market allowing the economy to withstand rapid monetary tightening. Bloomberg Economics thinks there’s little chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes later this year, as markets currently expect.”

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research:

“All I learned from the statement: The Fed marked down its growth assessment and still ended up going as much as it did in June.”

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities

Points out that Esther George had wanted to raise by only 50 basis points last time around and voted for 75 this month. “Honestly no idea what would have made someone more hawkish.”

Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist

Powell needs to be determined in his press conference in addressing the risk of middle-class incomes being damaged for years to come unless the Fed succeeds in bringing down inflation. Swonk says the unemployment rate will likely need to climb to 5.5% — from just 3.6% today — in this fight.

Joe Gilbert, Integrity Asset Management:

“The Fed has remained measured and has tried once again to not surprise the market. Most of the rate hikes are behind us at this point. Every day we are getting closer to rate cuts next year. The press conference and Jackson Hole meeting will really be the drivers going forward.”

Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management:

“This is no pivot, at least not yet. While the Fed acknowledges a slowdown in economic momentum, they are still hanging their hat on strong job growth (despite rising initial jobless claims and survey data suggesting a slowdown in job growth ahead). This doesn’t look like a Fed that has blinked. It’ll take a lot more than recession fears, clearly.”

Jimmy Chang, Rockefeller Global Family Office:

“It’s pretty much in line with consensus expectation. I would say the only messaging here, if there’s any slight pivot, is that they open with the line, ‘recent indicators of spending and productions have softened.’ So it’s kind of acknowledging they’re seeing some softness, but they quickly follow that with ‘nonetheless job gains have been robust. So again, to me, that’s the message that what they’re focused on is the job market. That the job market really has to deteriorate materially for them to pivot. And at this point the focus remains inflation.”

ii) USA DATA//

Durable Goods Unexpectedly Jump As US War Machine Goes Into Overdrive

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 08:59 AM

With PMIs sinking rapidly and macro surprise indices crashing, analysts finally lost the faith and after months of expectations for continued rises in US durable goods orders, in June consensus finally dipped to -0.4% for May. It turns out that for the second consecutive month, they were ‘under’-optimistic as durable goods orders surged 1.9% MoM, up more than double from 0.8% in May, and rose a generous 11.8% YoY NSA.

While headline durables were stellar, rising at the fastest pace since January, the rest of the data was mediocre at best:

  • New orders ex-trans. rose 0.3% in June after 0.5% rise, beating est. of 0.2%
  • New orders ex-defense rose 0.4% in June after 0.7% rise
  • Non- defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft rose 0.5% in June after rising 0.5% in May, beating est. of 0.2%

Ok fine, but it is the headline data that feeds into GDP, so we should at least find out what caused the transportation-related burst? And the answer is two fold: first, transportation new orders jumped 5.1% MoM as US automakers apparently got a new batch of chips allowing them to complete whatever legacy production was halted.

But a far bigger reason for the surge in headline durables was a much simpler one: the war in Ukraine. That’s right, as the chart below shows, the monthly increase in Defense aircraft and parts Durable new orders soared by $10.5 billion (not seasonally adjusted), the third biggest print on record, and not too far off the $13.4 billion record set in the weeks after the Sept 11 war.

It’s almost as if the war in Ukraine is a US proxy war…

And yes, this is another example where the US gets to benefit from outsized war spending: as Bloomberg noted in the aftermath of the Durables report, while there have been some fears that the Q2 GDP figure could print negative once again, “this morning’s data makes that outcome look less likely. Durable goods orders surprised to the upside across every category, though there were some slight downside revisions to May’s core orders figures.”

So yes, all those billions spent on the Ukraine’s Vogue darling…

… are finally coming back to benefit the Biden administration yet again.

IB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

What will Pelosi do?

(zerohedge)

‘China Wins’ If Pelosi Doesn’t Go To Taiwan: McConnell

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 05:50 PM

Nancy Pelosi has painted herself into quite the corner regarding her upcoming trip to Taiwan.

If she cancels the trip over Beijing’s objections, she’ll have “handed China sort of a victory of sorts,” according to a Tuesday statement by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

This comes as Biden administration officials bristle over growing tensions between Beijing and Taipei – telling the The New York Times they’re worried that China could move militarily against the island territory in as little as one-and-a-half years.

This might come, the report notes, by China “trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass.” Admin officials are further described as fearful and anxious that if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi goes through with a proposed trip to Taiwan in August, it could spark miscalculation or conflict leading to a full-blown crisis.

Chinese state media has been pushing a “military response” should Pelosi fly to Taipei next month, though official statements out of the foreign ministry have stopped short of being this specific, but have threatened the slightly more vague “forceful measures” if she follows through with it.

The timing is also sensitive given Chinese domestic politics, as the Times underscores, “U.S. officials see a greater risk of conflict and miscalculation over Ms. Pelosi’s trip as President Xi Jinping of China and other Communist Party leaders prepare in the coming weeks for an important political meeting in which Mr. Xi is expected to extend his rule.”

Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, who advises the US administration on Taiwan-related issues, said that “one school of thought is that the lesson is ‘go early and go strong’ before there is time to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses” – in reference to parallels of the Ukraine crisis.

Coons added: “And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.”

Offering a US military perspective chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley last week warned of “significantly more and noticeably more aggressive” behavior by the Chinese PLA military in the Asia-Pacific region. And on Tuesday, the US military said:

ONLY MATTER OF TIME BEFORE MAJOR INCIDENT OR ACCIDENT IF CHINA CONTINUES IRRESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR IN SEA, AIR- PENTAGON OFFICIAL

Though Biden days ago said that the Pentagon didn’t think a Pelosi trip to Taiwan was “a good idea” at this time, the White House kept mum when pressed on the issue in a Monday briefing:

“The administration routinely provides members of Congress with information and context for potential travel, including geopolitical and security considerations,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, without responding directly to Pelosi’s possible plans. “Members of Congress will make their own decisions.”

Ironically, as we noted earlier, Pelosi appears to be receiving most vocal support from Republican China hawks, with the latest being Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse. “Speaker Pelosi should go to Taiwan and President Biden should make it abundantly clear to Chairman Xi that there’s not a damn thing the Chinese Communist Party can do about it,” he said, weighing in on the trip. “No more feebleness and self-deterrence,” he emphasized.

As Patrick Buchannan notes

If Pelosi postpones or cancels the visit, it will be seen as a U.S. climb-down in the face of Chinese indignation and protest, and an affront to our friends in Taiwan.

Around the Asia-Pacific rim, the word will be, “The Americans, faced with China’s firmness, backed down.”

But if the visit goes forward, China is publicly committed to respond. Either way, relations between our countries will likely suffer, and perhaps seriously, if the Chinese opt for a military response to a Pelosi visit.

However this collision plays out, the U.S. is paying the price for having adopted, decades ago, a policy of building up China in the hope and expectation that Beijing would evolve into a benign and friendly rival and competitor of the United States.

END

Ranchers are selling off their cattle in great numbers due to the drought

(MichaelSnyder)

Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023

TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 – 07:30 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Thanks to the horrific drought which is absolutely devastating ranching in the Southwest, ranchers are now in “panic mode” and are selling off their cattle at an unprecedented rate.  In fact, some are choosing to sell off their entire herds because they feel like they don’t have any other options.  In recent days, seemingly endless lines of trailers waiting to drop off cattle for auction have gone viral all over social media.  Everybody is talking about how they have never seen anything like this before, and if the drought in the Southwest persists the lines could soon get even longer.  In the short-term, this is going to help to stabilize meat prices.  But in the long-term the size of the U.S. cattle herd will steadily become much smaller, and that has very serious implications for our ability to feed ourselves in 2023 and beyond.

North Texas has become the epicenter for this rapidly growing crisis.  Thanks to the drought, there simply is not enough grass and not enough water, and so many ranchers have been forced to make some really tough decisions

North Texas ranchers are selling off cattle by the thousands as grass and water disappear during an expanding summer drought.

Videos spread on social media Saturday and Sunday, showing trucks and trailers lined up for miles outside of livestock markets.

At the Decatur Livestock Market, owner Kimberly Irwin said trucks were stacked a mile in each direction, eventually unloading more than 2,600 animals.

For many of these ranchers, it is imperative that they get something for their animals while they still can.

According to the USDA, the vast majority of the pasture and range land in the region is now in either “poor” or “very poor” condition

Grass has stopped growing with no rain and 100 degree temperatures. Grasshoppers have reportedly been destroying what’s available in some counties. Stock ponds are now starting to run low on water as well.

The USDA released a report Monday showing 83% of pasture and range land is now considered to be in poor to very poor condition.

Normally, many cattle ranchers would feed hay to their cattle under such circumstances, but the price of hay has absolutely skyrocketed over the past year…

Prices for hay, which is widely used to feed cattle, were 56% higher in April than in 2021, according to a June report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cattle producers are estimated to have lost money the past two months, according to a cost-and-return analysis from Iowa State University.

So now even if you can find hay for sale it is usually so expensive that it is simply not economical.  Without any other options that make sense, some cattle ranchers in Texas have actually decided to go ahead and sell their entire herds

Central Texas ranchers have little hay to feed their cows due to drought conditions. That means some ranchers are now selling their entire herds, including older ones who might not thrive in the drier and hot conditions.

“Some of these ranchers are just totally out of grass, totally out of water,” Uptmore said. “Their backs are against the wall and they don’t have any other option.”

The good news is that a flood of beef is coming into the supply chain right now.

And that will certainly help keep short-term prices stable.

But what will we do next year and beyond?

According to Bloomberg, many ranchers that are showing up at these auctions are literally in “panic mode” because they are so eager to sell off their animals…

Ranchers in top cattle state Texas can’t sell their herds fast enough with 100-degree Fahrenheit temperatures making it too expensive to sustain animals.

Costs for feed, fertilizer and fuel have been soaring. There’s also a lack of water in the state, and little hay. That’s resulting in a firehouse of cattle getting auctioned at Texas sale barns. Emory Livestock Auction Inc., just over an hour’s drive east from Dallas, is seeing nearly quadruple normal rates with ranchers in “panic mode,” said Jack Robinson, an 83-year-old auctioneer.

Normally ranchers would wait until their cattle have reached a desired weight before finally selling them off.

Unfortunately, this relentless drought is forcing many ranchers to “sell smaller”

Cattle rancher Anthony Vybiral, in the business since the 90s, says drought conditions are forcing ranchers like him to “sell smaller.”

During a normal season, calves weigh up to 600 pounds, Vyviral said. Now, the rancher said, “some of them have been weighing 375 to 450 and they’ve been selling them.”

At the end of the day, ranching is a business.

These guys are trying to make whatever money that they can under the circumstances.

Of course most Americans never even think about where the meat that they eat comes from, but we should.

Because as Texas rancher Jarrod Montford has pointed out, we depend on a very small sliver of the population to feed all the rest of us…

“1.6, 1.7% of the population feeds the rest. It’s not how bad are we at the end of the day,” Monfort said. “It’s the fact that if we don’t survive, our nation fails,” said Montford.

He is right.

We need our farmers and our ranchers, and we don’t appreciate them nearly enough.

Looking ahead, there is reason to be extremely concerned.

The national cattle herd has been getting smaller for quite a while, and now that trend threatens to greatly accelerate

The nation’s cow herd has been shrinking for the past two years, but this summer’s drought is sending much of the breeding herd to the processing plant. That will cut into calf numbers for the next two to three years.

What we desperately need is a break in the weather.

So let us hope for cooler temperatures and lots of rain.

Unfortunately, this next week is supposed to be a sizzler, and that will especially be true in the Southwest

About 85% of the US population — or 273 million people — could see high temperatures above 90 degrees over the next week. And about 55 million people could see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees over the next seven days.

On Saturday, “sizzling temperatures” will take hold of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains with temperatures forecast to surpass 100 degrees, the weather prediction center said.

Daytime temperatures could top 100 degrees across much of the Southwest, with some areas exceeding 110 degrees, according to the center.

Of course all of this is happening within the context of the worst global food crisis in decades.

Famines are already erupting all over the world, and global food supplies are getting tighter with each passing day.

We were warned that this was coming, but most people didn’t want to listen.

Now a day of reckoning is nearly upon us.

I would definitely encourage you to stock up on meat in the weeks ahead while it is still relatively cheap, because the outlook for 2023 and beyond is definitely not promising.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

END

More evidence of the economy faltering

Freightwaves

Shopify Posts $1.2 Billion Loss A Day After Slashing Workforce

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 09:44 AM

By Brian Straight of FreightWaves

Canadian e-commerce platform Shopify lost $1.2 billion in the second quarter as more customers returned to in-store shopping and e-commerce growth slowed from its pandemic highs. It also said it expects to post an adjusted net loss for the remainder of 2022.

The company said net loss for the quarter was 95 cents per basic and diluted share compared to $900 million net income and 69 cents per share in the year-ago period. The Q2 loss included a $1 billion net unrealized loss on equity and other investments.

Adjusted net loss for Q2 of 2022 was $38.5 million, or 3 cents per basic and diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $284.6 million, or 22 cents per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2021.

Shopify CFO Amy Shapero said commerce through offline channels grew faster in Q2 but the company’s exposure there is more limited.

“Our merchants’ GMV [gross monthly volume] growth continued to outpace the growth of the broader U.S. online and offline retail markets as consumers shopped across more surfaces,” she said in the earnings release. “Our track record of prudent capital allocation toward opportunities that significantly expand the opportunity set for merchants, accelerate our product roadmap, or have strong paybacks from improved operating efficiency has served Shopify and our merchants well.”

Shopify launched several new products in Q2, including Shopify Editions, a summary of 100-plus new capabilities spanning B2B, POS Pro, Shopify Audiences and Shopify Markets. It also closed its $2.1 billion acquisition of Deliverr, a technology-focused last-mile logistics company.

“Through Deliverr we are accelerating the distribution phase,” said Harvey Finkelstein, Shopify president. Finkelstein said Deliverr, which fulfills a million orders per month, will help Shopify meet two-day fulfillment through its Shopify Fulfillment Network.

Shapero noted that Q2 results were not impacted by the Deliverr acquisition, which didn’t close until July 8.

Shopify also partnered with YouTube in the quarter, enabling Shopify merchants to integrate online stores with livestreams and videos. Still, these moves were not enough to offset the slowing e-commerce market. On Tuesday, Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke said in a blog post that the company was laying off about 10% of its global workforce — an estimated 1,000 people.

Lutke told employees that it is the company’s job to make “big strategic bets our merchants demand of us.” To that end, when pandemic e-commerce soared, Shopify went into action.

“Before the pandemic, e-commerce growth had been steady and predictable,” he wrote. “Was this surge to be a temporary effect or a new normal? And so, given what we saw, we placed another bet: We bet that the channel mix — the share of dollars that travel through e-commerce rather than physical retail — would permanently leap ahead by five or even 10 years. We couldn’t know for sure at the time, but we knew that if there was a chance that this was true, we would have to expand the company to match.”

That bet did not pan out, Lutke said, and the company is facing the same headwinds that other e-commerce retailers are facing.

Shopify reported Q2 revenue grew 16% year over year to $1.3 billion, but it was negatively impacted by the strengthening U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies. Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) was $107.2 million, a 13% increase year over year. GMV was up 11% to $46.9 billion.

The company also reported 18% year-over-year growth from Merchant Solutions to $928.6 million, and gross profit that increased 6% to $655.6. million. Operating loss for the second quarter was $190.2 million, or 15% of revenue, versus income of $139.4 million or 12% of revenue for Q2 2021. Adjusted operating loss for the second quarter of 2022 was $41.8 million, or 3% of revenue, compared with adjusted operating income of $236.8 million, or 21% of revenue, in the second quarter of 2021. 

Shapero said Shopify expects to reduce its spend the remainder of this year and focus sales and marketing initiatives on activities with shorter payback periods.

“We now expect 2022 will end up being different, more of a transition year, in which ecommerce has largely reset to the pre-COVID trend line and is now pressured by persistent high inflation,” the company said in its outlook for the remainder of the year.

Shapero said the company expects an adjusted operating loss through the remainder of 2022 and its “third-quarter adjusted operating loss, excluding severance costs, is expected to materially increase over the second quarter, reflecting time needed for the streamlining of our operations to take effect, the implementation of our new compensation framework, the first quarter of Deliverr operations, including approximately 450 team members, and related integration costs, and up to an estimated $50 million for certain other operating items associated with these and other areas.”

A fourth-quarter adjusted operating loss is also expected, but Shapero said it should be smaller than Q3 but still larger than Q2.

SWAMP STORIES

King report

The King Report July 27, 2022 Issue 6809Independent View of the News
China’s Slowdown Spills Over to Major Economies Through Imports
    China’s headline data hides decline in hi-tech goods imports
    Germany and South Korea post unusual trade deficits with China
Elevated global commodity prices meant that China’s official import growth of 1% in June from a year earlier hid a worse result for manufactured goods. Imports of hi-tech products and mechanical and electrical goods fell about 8% last month, according to recently released Chinese customs data…
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/chinas-slowdown-spills-over-to-major-economies-through-imports-8887921.html
 
@RobinBrooksIIF: Global recession is coming. Germany’s new export orders are nosediving (blue). Germany is one of the world’s leading exporters, so this is about faltering global demand… Only outlier is China (black) and that’s just a temporary post-COVID bounce… https://t.co/Q2pFnlJ3xn
 
Germany’s IFO business expectations index is crashing, which points to a contraction in Germany’s GDP… https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-26th-2022/
 
IMF warns global economy teetering on brink of recession as it slashes growth outlook
Global GDP will grow by 3.2% this year – a 0.4 percentage point drop from its April estimate. The IMF expects global growth to decelerate further to 2.9% next year, which is a 0.7 percentage point decline from its previous estimate. By comparison, the economy grew by 6.1% last year following the brief but extremely severe recession in 2020… (IMF GDP guestimates seem overly optimistic.)
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/imf-warns-global-economy-teetering-brink-recession-slashes-growth-outlook.amp
 
GM Misses Profit Estimates as Chip Shortage Crimps Output
GM’s profit in the latest quarter totaled $1.14 a share, less than the $1.31 consensus estimate of analysts compiled by Bloomberg and also below the $1.97 a share it earned a year ago…
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gm-misses-profit-estimates-chip-shortage-crimps-output
 
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: The composite manufacturing index rose from −9 in June to 0 in July, as two of its three component indexes showed marked improvement. The indexes for shipments and volume of new orders rallied from −17 and −20 in June to 7 and −10 in July, respectively. The third component, the employment index, fell to 8 in July from 16 in June….
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing
 
June US New Home Sales 590,000 (-8.1% m/m); 655,000 expected; median home price -9.5% m/m, the biggest decline since 2014
 
Conference Board June US Consumer Confidence sank to 95.7 from 98.4; 97 expected. Present Situation: 141.3, prior 147.2; Expectations: 65.3, prior 65.8
 
The Conference Board: As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July. Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months… https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
European natural gas surged 14% on Tuesday.  After soaring 11.7% to a 14-year high at 8:17 ET, US natural gas futures sank to +2% at 11:54 ET.  Oil and gasoline also tanked because the DoE announced The Big Guy would deplete the US SPR by 20 another million barrels in September and October – to suppress energy prices before the Midterm Elections in November.
ZH: White House says drain of 125 million SPR barrels has artificially lowered price of gasoline by 40 cents. Guess what happens when the SPR drain ends in a few months and it’s time to refill it.
 
Amazon to raise Prime prices in Europe as retailer wrestles with costs (Fed will ease soon?)
Amazon will raise fees for its delivery and streaming service Prime in Europe by up to 43% a year…
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-raise-prime-prices-europe-retailer-wrestles-with-costs-2022-07-25/
 
McDonald’s earnings top estimates, global sales jump 10%
Adjusted earnings per share hit $2.55 against expectations for earnings of $2.46. Revenue in Q2 totaled $5.72 billion against expectations for $5.83 billion…Executives suggested that the impact of inflation is expected to continue into the end of the year, with menu prices currently up high single digits and a “little higher than” last quarter, when prices rose roughly 8 percent…
https://news.yahoo.com/mcdonalds-second-quarter-earnings-q2-2022-111903384.html
 
ESUs opened moderately lower on Monday night due to Walmart’s lower earnings guidance.  They traded sideways in the modest range during Asian trading and most of European trading.  ESUs broke down when the NYSE opened.  They hit a daily low of 3917.50, (-52.50 on the day) at 11:48 ET.
 
A Noon Balloon produced a 20.25 ESU rally that peaked at 13:12 ET.  ESUs and stocks retreated until ESUs spiked higher at 14:06 ET.  ESUs quickly sank 20.50 to 3917.00, a new low, at 14:33 ET.  ESUs then made a minor new low of 3916.00 and then went inert until ESUs broke to new lows when the final hour arrived.  The usual suspects quickly bought ESUs to stem the decline.
 
ESUs only bounced 8 handles in 13 minutes.  Another rally attempt commenced at 15:30 ET; it was modest and ended quickly.  After a 7-minute retreat, the final manipulation appeared.  The ensuing 13-handle ESU rally ended at 15:55 ET.  ESUs sank into the close; but soared 17.50 at 16:01 ET.  They then sank 15 handles in 1 minute.  Google (Alphabet) and Microsoft issued disappointing results on the close.
 
MSFT Q4 EPS 2.23, 2.30 exp.; Rev. $51.87B, $52.45B exp.
Alphabet Q2 EPS 1.21, 1.32 exp.; Rev. Ex-TAC $57.4B, $58.03B exp. (Slowest growth in 2 years!)
 
Google sank when its results were released but soared 6.65 points minutes later.  Microsoft tumbled as much as 3.8% before rebounding sharply.  Someone was intent on pushing GOOGL and MSFT higher.  Some pundits rationalized Google’s rally on better ad revenues.  Google lost half of its rally quickly.
 
Chinese spy program targeted Federal Reserve as economic espionage op, senator warns
“A Federal Reserve counterintelligence analysis identified 13 persons of interest as having connections with known Chinese talent recruitment plan members or ‘having similar patterns of activity the [Federal Reserve] analysts deemed’ of potential concern,” the new report says… Chinese officials “forcibly detained one Federal Reserve Bank employee on four separate occasions during a 2019 trip to Shanghai” and “threatened the individual’s family unless the individual provided them with economic information and assistance, allegedly tapped the employee’s phones and computers
    The investigation also “found multiple U.S. Federal Reserve employees with close ties to the People’s Bank of China… One Federal Reserve Bank employee with sensitive access to Federal Reserve Board data provided modeling code to a Chinese university with ties to PBOC… Another… employee attempted to transfer large volumes of data from the Federal Reserve to an external site in at least two separate instances…” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign/federal-reserve-targeted-ccp-thousand-talents-senator-warns
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Energy commodities tanked on The Big Guy’s latest SPR depletion
 
Negative aspects of previous session
More data that shows recession is nigh for the US and Europe
The DJTA, Nasdaq, and Fangs got hammered; Bonds rallied on recession angst
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much of a recession is baked into the markets?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3928.28
Previous session High/Low3953.22; 3910.74
 
@EpochTimes: “If they don’t prevent transmission, then how does he justify the mandates?” Robert Kennedy Jr says it’s “astonishing” that Anthony Fauci is not being held accountable for admitting that COVID Vaccines don’t protect “overly well” against COVID 19. https://t.co/EipvzUC8bC
 
@zerohedge: Not only is there zero liquidity, there is almost no volume either: “Monday was the lightest volume session of the year with 9.32b shares trading across all US equity exchanges breaking previous low mark of 9.4b back on 7/11/22.” – GS
 
Visa Q3 ADJ EPS 1.98, 1.75 exp.  V spiked to 220 and then sank to 209.  Visa warned the dollar could hurt revenue by 4-5 percentage points, and costs could jump ‘low end of high teens’ percentage points.
 
Today – The world expects the Fed to hike its funds rate by 75bps.  The big unknowns for today are future Fed guidance and Powell’s insights at his press conference.  Traders want to bounce stocks.  If the Fed or Powell are the least bit less hawkish then expected, a rally should develop. 
 
It will be interesting to see how Microsoft and Alphabet trade after someone pushed them higher despite their disappointing results and initial tumbles in after-hour trading.
 
SPUs are +30.25 at 20:00 ET.  Are ESUs being juiced on the commencement of July performance gaming, or does someone know that Fed/Powell will be more dovish than expected?
 
Expected earnings: HUM 7.65, SHW 2.78, GD 2.72, ADP 1.46, ROK 2.33, HLT 1.05, BA .01, KHC .68, NSC 3.47, ROL .20, GPC 1.03, BMY 1.80, F .45, ORLY 8.96, URI 6.44, CHRW 1.98, META 2.54
 
Expected economic data: June Goods Trade Balance -$103.0B; June Wholesale Inventories 1.5% m/m, Retail Inventories 1.0%; June Durable Goods Orders -0.4% m/m, ex-Trans +0.2% m/m, Non-Def Ex-Air +0.2%, Shipments +0.2%; June Pending Homes Sales -1.0% m/m; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3920; 100-day MA: 4129; 150-day MA: 4266; 200-day MA: 4350
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,587; 100-day MA: 32,753; 150-day MA: 33,560; 200-day MA: 34,056
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4813.43 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4113.15 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3861.47 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3947.27 triggers a buy signal
 
Justice Dept. investigating Trump’s actions in Jan. 6 criminal probe
Any investigation surrounding the effort to undo the results of the election must navigate complex issues of First Amendment-protected political activity and when or whether a person’s speech could become part of an alleged conspiracy in support of a coup… (Diversion from Hunter Biden?)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/justice-dept-investigating-trump-e2-80-99s-actions-in-jan-6-criminal-probe/ar-AA100h1s
 
Meet the FBI Analyst Behind the Decade’s Biggest Political Disinformation Campaigns
Brian Auten pushed Trump-Russia collusion and is now accused of discrediting Hunter Biden stories
https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/meet-the-fbi-analyst-behind-the-decades-biggest-political-disinformation-campaigns/
 
@greg_price11: The FBI was literally covering for crimes committed by Hunter Biden that were also censored on the internet by Big Tech and called Russian disinfo by an irredeemably dishonest press in case you still don’t think that the 2020 election was rigged.
 
@HansMahn the Carter Page warrant
-drafted the phony ICA
-concealed that Danchenko disavowed Steele
-was involved in framing Gen Flynn
also assessed that Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation.
    @julie_kelly2: This happened under Bill Barr. So did resistance to deploying troops to quell 2020 riots. And threats to fire Wray. And the Whitmer fednapping hoax. Etc etc. And refused to investigate 2020 election fraud.  Barr could be the most subversive appointment Trump made.
 
Ex-Dem Rep & prez candidate Tulsi Gabbard: “Our Department of Justice is being weaponized as a political hit squad.” https://t.co/pa46q1LWai
 
Democrats ‘worried’ that ‘diehard’ Kamala Harris loyalists are ‘virtually nonexistent,’ The Hill reports – Two more Harris staffers announced they were leaving in July (Why is she more visible?)
https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrats-worried-diehard-kamala-harris-loyalists-virtually-nonexistent-the-hill-reports
 
@greg_price11: VP: “I am Kamala Harris, my pronouns are she and her, and I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.” (Xi and Putin cackle) https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1551984522685829120
 
@RNCResearch: Kamala Harris (Has new speech writer): “will impact a lot of people and differently in some situations and we need to be responsive to these issues and also lift up the voices of all people who will be impacted in the way that they will be impacted… a couple of points in terms of the direct impact.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1551988309022351364
 
Jill Biden’s press secretary has resigned. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/michael-larosa-leaving-the-white-house/index.html
 
Another bloody weekend of gun violence in Chicago leaves 65 shot https://trib.al/GKOQ3iR
 
NYC teen released after caught-on-video assault on cops has open robbery case
The teen was also arrested in April for gun possession in Brooklyn… “If New Yorkers want to know why the chaos in the transit system is not improving more quickly — this is why,” railed Patrick Lynch, president of the Police Benevolent Association union, in a tweet.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/nyc-teen-released-caught-video-assault-cops-open-robbery-case?intcmp=tw_fnc
 
Law enforcement identifies suspect who fired shots at Dallas Love Field, forcing airport evacuations – It’s not clear where the woman was aiming with her shots, or what her motive might have been… https://www.wfaa.com/amp/article/news/local/shots-reportedly-fired-at-dallas-love-field-airport-dallas-police-say/287-a0fa0c01-dca6-40d9-bb00-bf244b4b13ed
 
Dallas airport accused shooter has lengthy criminal record, claimed to be Chris Brown’s wife, ‘God’s prophet’ – Portia Odufuwa, Dallas Love Field Airport shooting suspect, repeatedly deemed unfit to stand trial… she was referred to either or both inpatient or outpatient mental health services, and the cases were dismissed… as recently as last summer, a Dallas County judge ruled she was not a danger to others… (This trend is intensifying due to wokeism and mental healthcare neglect!)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/dallas-airport-accused-shooter-lengthy-criminal-record-claimed-chris-browns-wife-gods-prophet
 

Greg Hunter: Interviewing Bill Holter

a must view…

Whole World is a Banana Republic – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On July 26, 2022 In Market Analysis1 Comment

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

A few months back, precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter predicted the economy was going to tank, and today, the U.S. is officially in a recession.  Holter says it’s not just America buckling under enormous debt, but the entire world.  Holter explains, “This is only the start.  They are trying to debate whether or not we are in a recession, but it’s pretty much a lock.  Yes, we are in a recession.  And this is not just the U.S.  This is a global problem. . . . Let me put his into perspective.  If you add up all the global GDP’s, we are roughly $100 trillion.  The problem is there is well over $350 trillion in debt worldwide. . . . When I graduated college . . . anything above 100% debt to GDP was considered a banana republic.  Look where we are today.  Globally, it’s 350% debt to GDP.  What that tells me is the world is a banana republic.”

So, it’s no surprise big money is getting out of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar.  Less than a month ago, Holter, who is also a precious metals broker for Miles Franklin, brokered what looks like the biggest U.S. silver coin deal in history.  Just the Silver Eagle portion of the deal was 650,000 coins, which was only part of the $50 million deal.  Only $27 million of that could be bought in U.S. incremented silver coins.  (The rest was used to buy gold U.S. coins.)  Holter says that cleared out the wholesale market for U.S. silver coins, including so-called junk silver.  Holter contends, “That shows you how thin it really is.  By the way, a fair portion, 15% or so, was future deliveries from the mint.  So, we basically cleaned up the next four to eight weeks of Silver Eagle deliveries.  They belong to us, and we are still waiting for delivery from the mint. . . . The client wanted U.S. coin.  In the U.S., that is the best form of silver ownership.  We did not touch bars, generics or foreign sovereigns.  So, there is still much more out there to be bought, but how much?   I think $1 billion would buy all the available silver in the U.S.  Think about it.  A billion dollars today is not even the mustard on a ham sandwich. . . . Make no mistake, this deal was a big hit to the inventory . . . of U.S. silver coins. . . . This paper Ponzi scheme is going to come down, and the best place to hide is gold and silver.”

On housing, Holter says it has topped and predicts, “Now, there are no bids, and homeowners are lowering the price.  It was a virtuous cycle to the upside.  Now, it’s reversed, and it will be a virtuous cycle to hell on the downside.  I say hell because there is so much debt outstanding, it will create margin calls across the board.”

Holter is still predicting a Mad Max apocalyptic future that looks more and more like a real possibility.  Holter says, “We have had free and carefree times for the last 40 years.  Now, you are going to see the reverse.  Debt is a two-edge sword, and after 40 years, we are going to see the dangerous side of the sword. . . . There is going to be starvation.  This is going to be unlike anything . . . anyone has even written about from a fictional basis. . . . I’ll be surprised if we make it through this year with the real economy functioning as it is right now.   Supply chains will break down . . . We will have some dire markets leading to . . . market closures and bank closures.”

There is much more in the 44 min interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter of JSMineset.com for 7.26.22. 

(https://usawatchdog.com/whole-world-is-a-banana-republic-bill-holter/) 

After the Interview: 

Holter adds, the derivative market will take down the central banks because it is thousands of times larger than all central bank capital combined.  “When the system goes down, it will go down fast, and it will be uncontrollable,” predicts Holter.

There is much free information and analysis on JSMineset.com.  If you want to become a subscriber to cutting edge original analysis and articles, click here.

If you are interested in buying the “Compendium Volume #4,” it’s at the top of the JSMineset.com home page.

See you TOMORROW

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