AUGUST 2//GOLD CLOSED UP $3.70 TO $1773.70//SILVER WAS DOWN 21 CENTS TO $20.17//PLATINUM WAS UP $4.05 TO $911.30//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $122.05 TO $2074/70// COVID UPDATES///VACCINE INJURY REPORT/VACCINE IMPACT//PELOSI’S VISIT TO TAIWAN UPDATES//CHINA’S HOUSING SECTOR IN DISARRAY//GERMAN RETAIL SALES PLUMMET AS EUROPE ENTERS INTO A RECESSION//USA LABOUR MARKET CRASHES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1773.70 UP $3.70

SILVER: $20.17 DOWN 21 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1761.45

SILVER: $20.00

Bitcoin morning price:  $22,886 DOWN 103

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,040. UP 51 

Platinum price: closing UP $4.05 to $911.30

Palladium price; closing DOWN $122.05  at $2074.70

END

I am going to take a one day break.  So I will not be doing a commentary tomorrow Wednesday, August 3

I will resume on Thursday.  However I will record all comex data and this will be up to date by Thursday.

Harvey

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

  EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,769.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/01/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/03/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 521 169
072 H GOLDMAN 444
104 C MIZUHO 500 133
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 57
132 C SG AMERICAS 4 71
167 C MAREX 111
190 H BMO CAPITAL 109
357 C WEDBUSH 2
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 438
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 437
661 C JP MORGAN 1873 1229
661 H JP MORGAN 24
685 C RJ OBRIEN 20 3
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 9
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 16
690 C ABN AMRO 30 41
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 31 33
880 C CITIGROUP 95
880 H CITIGROUP 397
905 C ADM 39


TOTAL: 3,420 3,420
MONTH TO DATE: 25,355

JPMorgan stopped 1229/3420

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

5,101 NOTICES FOR 3420 OZ //10.6326 TONNES

total notices so far: 25,355 contracts for 2,535,500 oz (78.864 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

28 NOTICES FILED FOR 140,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  707 :  for 3,535,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $3.70 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 487.161 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 3611  CONTRACTS TO 135,312   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  HUGE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG   $0.17 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.17) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS// WE HAD HUGE  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 2811 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -10

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 2 days, total 2050  contracts:  10.250 million oz  OR 5.125 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1025 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 10.250 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 10.250 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3621 DESPITE OUR  $0.17 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 800 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2821 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 14.105 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS WERE SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 28  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  140,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 4068 CONTRACTS  TO 462,770 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -37 CONTRACTS.

.

THE GOOD SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF $5.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 97.291 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF   $5.75 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3164  OI CONTRACTS 9.841 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  904  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 462,770

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,164 CONTRACTS  WITH 4,068 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 904 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3127 CONTRACTS OR 9.726 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (904) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4068): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  3164 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 1,100 oz. (THESE OZ WILL EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY BACK TO THE COMEX AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED GOLD!!    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

2265 CONTRACTS OR 226,500 OZ OR 7,045  TONNES 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1133 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 7.045 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  7.045/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.197% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 7.045 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3621 CONTRACT OI TO 135,312 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1250 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 800  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 800 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3621  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 800 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2821   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14.105 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.17

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 73.69 PTS OR 2.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 476.63 OR 2.26%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 398.67 OR % 1.72.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.05%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 67586//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7707//    /Oil DOWN TO 94.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 100.68// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 73.69 PTS OR 2.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 476.63 OR 2.36%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 398.67 OR % 1.72.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 4068 CONTRACTS TO 462,770 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE OF $5.75  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (904 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 904 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :904 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  904 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 3164  CONTRACTS IN THAT 904 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 4068  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG SIZED  GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 5.75. . WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS IS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (97.287),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:97.287 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.75) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 9,726 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (97.287 TONNES)

WE HAD -37  CONTRACTS SUBTRACTED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3164 CONTRACTS OR  316,400  OZ OR 9.841 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 170,848/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  144,999 / poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 2

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz194,418.105oz

JPMorgan
Loomis






1600 kilobars
(HSBC)
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz1999.94 OZ 
Delaware
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz384.485 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today3420   notice(s)
342,000 OZ
10.6322 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)5923 contracts 
592,300 oz
18.241 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month25,355 notices
2,535,500 OZ
78.864TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  1

i) Into the dealer Delaware: 1.999.94 oz

total dealer deposit:  1999.94 oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: 0 oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Loomis:  34,464.872oz 

ii) out of JPMorgan:  159,953.233 oz 

total withdrawal:  194,418.105 oz (6.04 tonnes)

Adjustments:  customer to dealer: JPMorgan  139,877.158 oz

customer to dealer Brinks: 93,077.145 oz

and:  Manfra: 64,678.933 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 9343 contracts having LOST  511 contracts .

We had 5101 notices served upon yesterday so we lost a very tiny 10 contracts (1000 oz) as these guys were EFP’d to London where they will turn around and

take gold from the Comex at T + 2.

Sept. gained 77 contracts to 3974 contracts.

October gained 539 contracts up to 39,533 

We had 3420 notice(s) filed today for 342,000 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  1873 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3420 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  1229 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,355) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 9343  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 3420 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,127,800 OZ  OR 97.287 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (25,355) x 100 oz+   (9343)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3420} x 100 oz} which equals 3,127,800 oz standing OR 97.287 TONNES in this   active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  97.287 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,320,459.814oz   72,17 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  30,049,842.972 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,248,246.109  OZ (474.77 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,801,595.863 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,927,789.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 402.1 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 2

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,307,609.966  oz


CNT
HSBC
Loomis
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory83,064.300 oz

CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)28 CONTRACT(S)
140,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)105 contracts 
(525,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)707 contracts
 3,535,500 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 83,064.300 oz

total deposit:  83,064.300   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.113 million oz/335.549 million =52.20% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of HSBC 601,294.800 oz

ii) out of CNT:  137,276.591 0z

iii0 Out of Loomis:  64,372.750 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 504,665.825 oz

total: 1,307,609.966  oz

 adjustments: 1// customer to dealer

Manfra  62,272.264 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.525 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 335.549 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 133 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 23 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 33 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 165,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 5347 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 99,811

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 28 for  140,000 oz

Comex volumes:69,159// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,327 contracts (  good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 707 x 5,000 oz = 3,535,500 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(133) and the number of notices served upon today 28  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 707 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (133)  – number of notices served upon today (28) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4.060,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1002.97 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 487.161 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Will Do The Exact Opposite

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 01:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Congress passed a bill to prop up the US semiconductor industry last week and is now considering a new spending plan dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act.” On his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the Democrats’ legislative agenda and concluded that the “Inflation Reduction Act” will do the exact opposite.

Last Thursday, the House passed the Chips Act, a law that will subsidize the domestic computer chip industry by handing out roughly $52 billion in government subsidies for the US production of semiconductors. Peter called the bill “completely unconstitutional.”

There is nothing in the US Constitution that authorized the US government to pick winners and losers, and to decide to invest taxpayer money in particular businesses and hand over that money to industries like the computer chip industry.”

Politicians call this kind of handout “an investment.” Peter said he doesn’t see how you can call it that.

There’s no return to the taxpayer. It’s simply a grant. The US government is giving $50 billion to private companies.”

It’s really just another example of government central planning. And it never works. As Peter said, capital needs to be allocated in the private sector.

If computer chips are viable, which of course they are, and if they’re necessary, then there will be a profit associated with producing those chips. And because private investors are incentivized by profits to make investments, there will be private sector investment in this industry if that is, in fact, what the country needs. And so the government needs to stay out of it. This is not an example of capitalism. This is an example of socialism. And this is going to fail.”

And of course, the federal government doesn’t have $50 billion.

It is going to have to borrow it. It is going to have to run larger deficits. How are these deficits going to be financed? Well, they’re likely going to be financed by the Fed through the printing of money. Even though the Fed is still claiming it is going to shrink its balance sheet, it’s going to end up expanding its balance sheet. But even if the Fed doesn’t finance the deficits, they have to be financed somehow, which means other private sector investment is going to get crowded out to make this government investment possible.”

If the government is crowding out other private investments, it should be clear that this government program is not the best use for that money. The highest and best use would be a function of the free market.

So, if the free market doesn’t want to do something, but politicians want to force it to happen anyway, it’s because it’s not the best use of the capital.”

At a time the government should be cutting spending to reduce deficits and help fight raging inflation, it is doing the exact opposite.

Peter Schiff called the “Inflation Reduction Act” the most ironic of all. He also noted that there should be a law requiring “truth in legislating.”

Whenever they title a bill something, the opposite is achieved. For example, if they pass the ‘Tax Simplification Act,’ it means taxes are going to get a lot more complicated. They passed the ‘Patriot Act.’ It was probably one of the most unpatriotic pieces of legislation ever passed. The same will hold true for the ‘Inflation Reduction Act.’ The Inflation Reduction Act will increase inflation.”

Why?

Because the bill doesn’t do anything except spend more money.

The only act that the government could pass to reduce inflation would be to reduce government spending. They need to cut government spending. That is not what this act is doing.”

The proposed spending bill does include tax increases on corporations and closes some other tax “loopholes.” But even if the tax hikes lowered deficits – which they won’t – taxes on corporations limit supply, not demand.

They result in less capital investment and reduce the supply of goods or services available to buy. That puts more upward pressure on prices. The only way that the government can fight inflation with tax hikes is if those tax hikes are targeted on the middle class. Because the tax hikes have to reduce demand, not supply. The way you reduce demand is you increase taxes on the people who would have spent the money on consumer goods and services.”

When you tax the rich, it doesn’t tend to significantly alter their spending. It reduces their saving and investing.

Peter said anybody who says the “Inflation Reduction Act” will reduce inflation because it will reduce the budget deficit is wrong.

These tax hikes will have no effect on inflation other than to make it worse because they will limit supply.”

Peter said he isn’t advocating tax hikes on the middle class. He would prefer the government to fight inflation by cutting spending.

But that’s not on the table. The only thing that the Democrats have put on the table is tax hikes. And I’m pointing out that the only tax hikes that will work in reducing inflation would be tax hikes on the middle class and the poor. But again, the best way to tackle inflation is through spending cuts.”

In this podcast, Peter also talked about the current recession that the government and Fed deny is upon us, the weak labor market, and the market reaction to the GDP news.

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Gold investors are in a bind over Russian bars held in Europe

(Reuters)

Gold investors are in a bind over bars from tarnished Russia

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-08-01 10:05Section: Daily Dispatches

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Monday, August 1, 2022

LONDON — Some investors want Russian gold off their books but it’s not that easy to remove.

A de-facto ban on Russian bullion minted after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine — instigated by the London market in early March — does not apply to hundreds of tonnes of gold that have been sitting in commercial vaults since before the conflict started.

Fund managers looking to sell the metal to avoid the deepening reputational risk of holding assets linked to Russia in their portfolios could trigger a costly scramble to replace it with non-Russian gold, according to bankers and investors.

“This would serve only to damage investors. It doesn’t damage the (Russian) regime,” said Christopher Mellor at Invesco, whose fund has around 265 tonnes of gold, 35 tonnes of it produced in Russia with a market value of around $2 billion.

The dilemma facing investors reflects Russia’s heft in the global bullion trade and its hub, the London market, where gold worth around $50 billion changes hands daily in private deals. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-investors-face-bind-over-bars-tarnished-russia-2022-08-01/

END

Zimbabwe has success in selling gold coins and this prompts a second offering

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Success of first Zimbabwe gold coin sale prompts second offering

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-08-01 11:24Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ray Ndlovu
Bloomberg News
Monday, August 1, 2022

Zimbabwe’s central bank will offer 2,000 more gold coins to the public, a week after an initial sale saw “favorable uptake.”

The bank sold 1,500 gold coins during the first week of their release into the market, Governor John Mangudya said today in an emailed statement. They are sold in local and foreign currencies by banks and approved dealers in the country.

The authorities introduced the so-called Mosi-oa-Tunya coins last month to ease demand for U.S. dollars as a store of value, after a collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar. It has lost more than two-thirds of its value against the greenback this year, spawning annual inflation of 257% in July. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/gold-coin-sale-success-prompts-a-second-offering-in-zimbabwe

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT//GRAINS/DIESEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7586

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7707

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 476.63 PTS OR  2.36%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 398.67 OR 1.72%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  105,43/Euro FALLS TO 1.0234

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.169/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 131.03/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +0.819%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.05% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.89%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 2.880//

3j Gold at $1778.95 silver at: 20.44  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 13/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.30

3m oil into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and  100 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 131.03DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9522– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9743well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.559  DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.887  DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.96

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Global Markets Slump With Terrified Traders Tracking Pelosi’s Next Move

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 08:05 AM

Forget inflation, stagflation, recession, depression, earnings, Biden locked up in the basement with covid, and everything else: today’s it all about whether Nancy Pelosi will start World War 3 when she lands in Taiwan in 3 hours.

US stocks were set for a second day of declines as investors hunkered down over the imminent (military) response by China to Pelosi’s Taiwan planned visit to Taiwan, along with the risks from weakening economic growth amid hawkish central bank policy. Nasdaq 100 contracts were down 0.7% by 7:30a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% having fallen as much as 1% earlier. 10Y yields are down to 2.55% after hitting 2.51% earlier, while both the dollar and gold are higher.

Elsewhere around the world, Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.6%, with energy among the few industries bucking the trend after BP hiked its dividend and accelerated share buybacks to the fastest pace yet after profits surged. Asian stocks slid the most in three weeks, with some of the steepest falls in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Pinterest shares jumped 19% after the social-media company reported second-quarter sales and user figures that beat analysts’ estimates, and activist investor Elliott Investment Management confirmed a major stake in the company. US-listed Chinese stocks were on track to fall for a fourth day, which would mark the group’s longest streak of losses since late-June, amid the rising geopolitical tensions. In premarket trading, bank stocks are lower amid rising tensions between the US and China. S&P 500 futures are also lower, falling as much as 0.9%, while the 10-year Treasury yield falls to 2.56%. Cowen Inc. shares gained as much as 7.5% after Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to buy the US brokerage for $1.3 billion in cash. Meanwhile, KKR’s distributable earnings fell 9% during the second quarter as the alternative-asset manager saw fewer deal exits amid tough market conditions. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI US Equity) falls 0.6% though analysts are positive on the company’s plans to roll out new video game titles after it reported adjusted second-quarter revenue that beat expectations. While the $68.7 billion Microsoft takeover deal remains a focus point, the company is building out a “robust” pipeline, Jefferies said.
  • Arista Networks (ANET US) analysts said that the cloud networking company’s results were “impressive,” especially given supply-chain constraints, with a couple of brokers nudging their targets higher. Arista’s shares rose more than 5% in US after-hours trading on Monday after the company’s revenue guidance for the third quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Avis Budget (CAR US) saw a “big beat” on low Americas fleet costs and strong performance for its international segment, Morgan Stanley says. The rental-car firm’s shares rose 5.5% in US after-hours trading on Monday, after second-quarter profit and revenue beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Snowflake (SNOW US) falls 5.3% after being cut at BTIG to neutral from buy, citing field checks that show a potential slowdown in product revenue growth in the coming quarters.
  • Clarus Corp. (CLAR US) should continue to see “outsized demand” from the “mega-trend” of people seeking the great outdoors, Jefferies says, after the sports gear manufacturer reported second-quarter sales that beat estimates. Clarus’s shares climbed 9% in US postmarket trading on Monday.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are lower in US premarket trading as Bitcoin falls for the third consecutive session as global markets and cryptocurrencies remain pressured over deepening US-China tension. Coinbase (COIN US) falls 2.3% while Marathon Digital (MARA US) drops 3.3%.
  • Transocean (RIG US) rises 18% in US premarket trading after 2Q Ebitda beat estimates, with other positives including a new contract and a 2-year extension of a revolver.
  • US-listed Chinese stocks are on track to fall for a fourth day, which would mark the group’s longest streak of losses since end-of-June, amid geopolitical tensions related to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit to Taiwan. Alibaba (BABA) falls 2.5% and Baidu (BIDU US) dips 2.7%
  • ZoomInfo Technologies analysts were positive on the software firm’s raised guidance and improved margins, with Piper Sandler saying the firm is “in a class of its own.” The shares rose more than 11% in US after-hours trading, after closing at $37.73.

Pelosi is expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday, the highest-ranking American politician to visit the island in 25 years, a little after 10pm local time evening in defiance of Chinese threats. China, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory, has vowed an unspecified military response to a visit that risks sparking a crisis between the world’s biggest economies. “There is no way people will want to put on risk right now with this potential boiling point,” said Neil Campling, head of tech, media and telecom research at Mirabaud Securities. The potential ramifications of Pelosi’s planned visit “are huge.”

The growing tensions are the latest addition to a myriad of challenges facing equity investors going into the second half of the year. Fears of a US recession as the Federal Reserve tightens policy to tame soaring inflation have weighed on risk assets. US manufacturing activity continued to cool in July, with the data highlighting softer demand for merchandise as the economy struggles for momentum. In the off chance we avoid world war, there will be a shallow recession that could start by the end of the year, according to Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at Kingswood Holdings. Meanwhile, the market is too optimistic about the path of monetary policy and “the risk is the Fed goes further than the markets are building in in terms of hiking,” Thompson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Goldman Sachs strategists also said it was too soon for stock markets to fade the risks of a recession on expectations of a pivot in the Fed’s hawkish policy. On the other hand, JPMorgan strategists said the outlook for US equities is improving for the second half of the year on attractive valuations and as the peak in investor hawkishness has likely passed.

“Although the activity outlook remains challenging, we believe that the risk-reward for equities is looking more attractive as we move through the second half,” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note dated Aug. 1. “The phase of bad data being interpreted as good is gaining traction, while the call of peak Federal Reserve hawkishness, peak yields and peak inflation is playing out.”

Markets are also bracing for commentary on the US interest-rate outlook from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In Europe, tech, financial services and travel are the worst-performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.8%. FTSE 100 is flat but outperforms peers. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • BP shares rise as much as 4.8% on earnings. The oil major’s quarterly results look strong with an earnings beat, dividend hike and increased buyback all positives, analysts say.
  • OCI rises as much as 8.6%, the most since March, on its latest earnings. Analysts say the results are ahead of expectations and the fertilizer firm’s short-term outlook remains robust.
  • Maersk shares rise as much as 3.7% after the Danish shipping giant boosted its underlying Ebit forecast for the full year. Analysts note the boosted guidance is significantly above consensus estimates.
  • Greggs shares rise as much as 4% after the UK bakery chain reported an increase in 1H sales. The 1H results are “solid,” while the start to 2H is “robust,” according to Goodbody.
  • Delivery Hero shares gain as much as 3.8%. The stock is upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan, which said many of the negatives that have weighed on the firm are starting to turn.
  • Rotork gains as much as 4%, the most since June 24, after beating analyst expectations for 1H 2022. Shore Capital says the company shows “good momentum” in the report.
  • Credit Suisse shares decline as much as 6.4% after its senior debt was downgraded by Moody’s, and its credit outlook cut by S&P, while Vontobel lowered the PT following “disappointing” 2Q earnings.
  • Travis Perkins shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March 2020. Citi says the builders’ merchant’s results are “slightly weaker than expected,” with RBC noting shortfalls in sales and Ebita.
  • DSM shares drop by as much as 4.9% as Citi notes weak free cash flow after company reported adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter up 5.3% with FY22 guidance unchanged.
  • UK homebuilders fall after house prices in the country posted their smallest increase in at least a year, indicating that the property market is starting to cool, with Crest Nichols dropping as much as 5.2%.
  • Wind-turbine stocks fall in Europe after Spain’s Siemens Gamesa cut sales and margin guidance, with Siemens Energy dropping as much as 6.1%, with Vestas Wind Systems down as much as 4.7%.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as traders braced for a potential escalation of US-China tensions given a possible visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, poised for its worst day in five weeks. All sectors, barring real estate, were lower with chipmaker TSMC and China’s tech stocks among the biggest drags on the regional measure. Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taipei late on Tuesday. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has promised “grave consequences” for her trip. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan were among the laggards in Asia, slipping at least 1.4% each. Japan’s Topix declined as the yen received a boost from safe-haven demand. 

“I do expect a negative feedback loop into China-related equities especially those related to the semiconductor and technology sectors as Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan is likely to harden the current frosty US-China tech war,” said Kelvin Wong, analyst at CMC Markets (Singapore). Pelosi’s controversial trip is souring a nascent revival in risk appetite in the region that saw the MSCI Asia gauge rise in July to cap its best month this year. China’s economic slowdown continues to weigh on sentiment, as authorities said this year’s economic growth target of “around 5.5%” should serve as a guidance rather than a hard target. 

Japanese equities fell as the yen soared to a two month high over concerns of US-China tensions escalating with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan on Tuesday.  The Topix fell 1.8% to 1,925.49 as of the market close, while the Nikkei declined 1.4% to 27,594.73. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 2.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 227 rose and 1,903 fell, while 40 were unchanged. Pelosi would become the highest-ranking American politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years. China views the island as its territory and has warned of consequences if the trip takes place. “The relationship between the US and China was just about to enter into a period of review, with a move from the US to reduce China tariffs,” said Ikuo Mitsui a fund manager at Aizawa Securities. That could change now as a result of Pelosi’s visit, he added

Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index erased an earlier loss of as much as 0.7% to close 0.1% higher after the Reserve Bank’s widely-expected half-percentage point lift of the cash rate to 1.85%. The index wiped out a loss of as much as 0.7% in early trade. The RBA’s statement was “not as hawkish as anticipated and the lower growth forecast suggests the RBA is aware of both the domestic and international drags on the economy,” said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan.  “We expect the RBA will continue to push interest rates back to a neutral level this year given the successive upgrades to the inflation outlook, but 2023 looks to be a much less eventful year for the RBA,” Craig said.  Banks and consumer discretionary advanced to boost the index, while miners and energy shares declined.   In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose less than 0.1% to 11,532.46.

Indian stock indexes are on course to claw back this year’s losses on steady buying by foreigners. The S&P BSE Sensex closed little changed at 58,136.36 in Mumbai, after falling as much as 0.6% earlier in the day. The measure is now just 0.2% away from turning positive for the year. The NSE Nifty Index too is a few ticks away from moving into the green. Nine of the BSE Ltd.’s 19 sector sub-indexes advanced on Tuesday, led by power and utilities companies.  Foreigners bought local shares worth $836.2 million in July, after pulling out a record $33 billion from the Indian equity market since October. July was the first month of net equity purchases by foreign institutional investors, after nine months of outflows. Still, “choppiness would remain high due to the upcoming RBI policy meet outcome and prevailing earnings season,” Ajit Mishra, vice-president for research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. “Participants should continue with the buy-on-dips approach.” The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to raise interest rates for a third straight time on Friday. Of the 33 Nifty companies that have reported results so far, 18 have beaten the consensus view while 15 have trailed. Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 16 rose, while 14 fell. IndusInd Bank and Asian Paints were among the key gainers on the Sensex, while Tech Mahindra Ltd. and mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp were prominent decliners. 

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index rises 0.1%. JPY and CAD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and AUD underperforms, after Australia’s central bank hiked rates by 50 basis-points for a third straight month and signaled policy flexibility. USD/JPY dropped as much as 0.9% to 130.41, the lowest since June 3, in the longest streak of daily losses since April 2021. Leveraged accounts are adding to short positions on the pair ahead of Pelosi’s visit, Asia-based FX traders said.

In rates, treasuries extended Monday’s rally in early Asia session as 10-year yields dropped as low as 2.514% amid escalating US-China tension over Taiwan. Treasury yields were richer by up to 5bp across long-end of the curve, where 20-year sector continues to outperform ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement, expected to make extra cutbacks to the tenor. US 10-year yields off lows of the day around 2.55%, lagging bunds by 4bp and gilts by 4.5bp. US stock futures slumped given risk adverse backdrop, adding support into Treasuries while bunds outperform as traders scale back ECB rate hike expectations. The yield on the two-year German note, among the most sensitive to rate hikes, fell as low as 0.17%, its lowest since May 16. Gilts also gained across the curve. Bund curve bull-steepens with 2s10s widening ~2 bps. Gilt and Treasury curves mostly bull-flatten. Australian bonds soared after RBA delivered a third- straight 50bp rate hike as expected, but gave itself wriggle room to slow the pace of tightening in the coming months.

In commodities, WTI trades within Monday’s range, falling 0.6% to trade around $93, while Brent falls below $100. Spot gold is little changed at $1,779/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME nickel falls 2% while LME zinc gains 0.6%.

Bitcoin remains under modest pressure and has incrementally lost the USD 23k mark, but remains comfortably above last-week’s USD 20.6k trough.

Looking to the day ahead now and there is a relatively short list of economic indicators to watch, including June JOLTS report and total vehicle sales (July) for the US, UK’s July Nationwide house price index and July PMI for Canada. Given the apparent uncertainty about the direction of the Fed in markets, many will be awaiting Fed’s Bullard, Mester and Evans, who will speak throughout the day. And in corporate earnings, it will be a busy day featuring results from BP, Caterpillar, Ferrari, Marriott, KKR, Uber, S&P Global, Occidental Petroleum, Electronic Arts, Gilead Sciences, Advanced Micro Devices, Starbucks, Airbnb, PayPal, Marathon Petroleum.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 4,096.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 435.13
  • MXAP down 1.3% to 159.73
  • MXAPJ down 1.3% to 516.82
  • Nikkei down 1.4% to 27,594.73
  • Topix down 1.8% to 1,925.49
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 19,689.21
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.3% to 3,186.27
  • Sensex little changed at 58,120.97
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,998.05
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,439.62
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.74%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.0231
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $99.44/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,770.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 105.61

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Oil Steadies Before OPEC+ as Traders Weigh Up Market Tightness
  • China Slaps Export Ban on 100 Taiwan Brands Before Pelosi Visit
  • Pozsar Says L-Shaped Recession Is Needed to Conquer Inflation
  • Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Raises Angst in Global Financial Markets
  • Taiwan Risk Joins Long List of Reasons to Shun China Stocks
  • Biden Says Strike in Kabul Killed a Planner of 9/11 Attacks
  • Biden Team Tries to Blunt China Rage as Pelosi Heads for Taiwan
  • The Best and Worst Airlines for Flight Cancellations
  • GOP Plans to Deploy Obscure Rule as Weapon Against Spending Bill
  • US to Stop TSMC, Intel From Adding Advanced Chip Fabs in China
  • US Anti-Terrorism Operation in Afghanistan Kills Al-Qaeda Leader
  • They Quit Goldman’s Star Trading Team, Then It Raised Alarms
  • Sinema’s Silence on Manchin’s Deal Keeps Everyone Guessing
  • Manchin Side-Deal Seeks to Advance Mountain Valley Pipeline

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the weak performance across global counterparts as tensions simmered amid Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan. ASX 200 was initially pressured ahead of the RBA rate decision where the central bank hiked by 50bp, as expected, although most of the losses in the index were pared amid a lack of any hawkish surprises in the statement and after the central bank noted it was not on a pre-set path. Nikkei 225 declined amid a slew of earnings and continued unwinding of the JPY depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed due to the ongoing US-China tensions after reports that House Speaker Pelosi will arrive in Taiwan late on Tuesday despite the military threats by China, while losses in Hong Kong were exacerbated by weakness in tech and it was also reported that Chinese leaders said the GDP goal is guidance and not a hard target which doesn’t provide much confidence in China’s economy.

Top Asian News

  • Tourism Jump to Power Thai GDP Growth to Five-Year High in 2023
  • China in Longest Streak of Liquidity Withdrawals Since February
  • Singapore Says Can Tame Wild Power Market Without State Control
  • India’s Zomato Appoints Four CEOs, to Change Name to Eternal
  • Taiwan Tensions Raise Risks in One of Busiest Shipping Lanes
  • Japan Trading Giants Book $1.7 Billion Russian LNG Impairment
  •     Japan Proposes Record Minimum Wage Hike as Inflation Hits

European bourses are pressured as the general tone remains tentative ahead of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%; note, FTSE 100 -0.1% notably outperforms following earnings from BP +3.0%. As such, the Energy sector bucks the trend which has the majority in the red and a defensive bias in-play. Stateside, futures are similarly downbeat and have been drifting lower amid the incremental updates to Pelosi and her possible Taiwan arrival time of circa. 14:30BST/09:30ET; ES -1.0%. Apple (AAPL) files final pricing term sheet for four-part notes offering of up to USD 5.5bln, according to a filing.

Top European News

  • Ukraine Sees Slow Return of Grain Exports as World Watches
  • Ruble Boosts Raiffeisen’s Russian Unit Despite Credit Halt
  • DSM 2Q Adj. Ebitda Up; Jefferies Sees ‘Muted’ Reaction
  • Credit Suisse Hit by More Rating Downgrades After CEO Reboot
  • Man Group Sees Assets Decline for First Time in Two Years
  • Exodus of Young Germans From Family Nest Is Getting Ever Bigger

FX

  • Yen extends winning streak through yet more key levels vs Buck and irrespective of general Greenback recovery on heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan
  • USD/JPY breaches support around 131.35 and probes 130.50 before stalling, but remains sub-131.00 even though the DXY hovers above 105.500 within a 105.030-710 range.
  • Aussie undermined by risk aversion and no hawkish shift by RBA after latest 50bp hike; AUD/USD nearer 0.6900 having climbed to within a few pips of 0.7050 on Monday.
  • Kiwi holds up better with AUD/NZD tailwind awaiting NZ jobs data, NZD/USD hovering just under 0.6300 and cross closer to 1.1000 than 1.1100.
  • Euro and Pound wane after falling fractionally short of round number levels vs Dollar, EUR/USD back under 1.0250 vs 1.0294 at best, Cable pivoting 1.2200 from 1.2293 yesterday.
  • Loonie and Franc rangy after return from Canadian and Swiss market holidays, USD/CAD straddling 1.2850 and USD/CHF rotating around 0.9500.
  • Yuan off lows after slightly firmer PBoC midpoint fix, but awaiting repercussions of Pelosi trip given Chinese warnings about strong reprisals, USD/CNH circa 6.7700 and USD/CNY just below 6.7600 vs 6.7950+ and 6.7800+ respectively.
  • South Africa’s Eskom says due to a shortage of generation capacity, Stage Two loadshedding could be implemented at short notice between 16:00-00:00 over the next three days.

Fixed Income

  • Taiwan-related risk aversion keeps bonds afloat ahead of relatively light pm agenda before a trio of Fed speakers.
  • Bunds hold above 159.00 within 159.70-158.57 range, Gilts around 119.50 between 119.70-20 parameters and T-note nearer 122-02 peak than 121-17+ trough.
  • UK 2032 supply comfortably twice oversubscribed irrespective of little concession.

Commodities

  • WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures trade with both contracts under the USD 100/bbl mark as the participants juggle a myriad of major factors, incl. the JTC commencing shortly.
  • Spot gold is stable and just below the 50-DMA at USD 1793/oz while base metals succumb to the broader tone.
  • A source with knowledge of last month’s meeting between President Biden and Saudi King Salman said the Saudis will push OPEC+ to increase oil production at their meeting on Wednesday and that the Saudi King made the assurance to President Biden during their face-to-face meeting July 16th, according to Fox Business’s Lawrence.
  • US Senator Manchin “secured a commitment” from President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Speaker Pelosi for completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, according to 13NEWS.

US Event Calendar

  • July Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 13.4m, prior 13m
  • 10:00: June JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11m, prior 11.3m
  • 10:00: Fed’s Evans Hosts Media Breakfast
  • 11:00: NY Fed Releases 2Q Household Debt and Credit Report
  • 13:00: Fed’s Mester Takes Part in Washington Post Live Event
  • 18:45: Fed’s Bullard Speaks to the Money Marketeers

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In thin markets, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan today for meetings tomorrow (as part of her tour of Asia) could be the main event. She’s scheduled to land tonight local time which will be mid-morning US time. She’ll be the highest ranking US politician to visit in 25 years. Expect some reaction from the Chinese and markets to be nervous. Meanwhile to dial back rising tensions, the White House has urged China to refrain from an aggressive response as speaker Pelosi’s visit does not change the US position toward the island.

As the headline confirming her visit was going ahead broke, 10 year US Treasuries immediately fell a handful of basis point from 2.69% (opened at 2.665%) and continued falling to around 2.58% as Europe retired for the day, roughly where it closed (-6.8bps). Breakevens led most of the move. 2 year notes actually held in which inverted the curve a further -6.12bps and to the lowest this cycle at -30.84bps. Remember that August is the best month of the year for fixed income (see my CoTD last week here for more on this) so the month has started off in line with the textbook. This morning 10yr USTs yields have dipped another -3bps to 2.55%, some 14bps lower than when Pelosi stopover was first confirmed 18 hours ago. 2yr yields have slightly out-performed with the curve just back below -30bps again.

Lower yields initially helped to lift equities yesterday, with the Nasdaq being up more than a percent at one point before falling with the rest of the market and closing -0.18%. The S&P 500 was -0.28% and dragged lower by energy (-2.17%). The latter came as crude prices moved substantially lower, with WTI losing -4.91% and Brent (-3.97%) dipping below $100 per barrel as well. Growth concerns, partly due to the weekend and yesterday’s data from China, and partly due to the US risk off yesterday, were mainly to blame. These worries filtered through other commodities as well, including industrial metals and agriculture. For the latter, Ukraine’s first grain shipment since the war began was a contributing factor. European gas was a standout, notching a +5.2% gain as the relentless march continues.

In an overall risk-off market, staples (+1.21%) were the only sector meaningfully advancing on the day, followed by discretionary (+0.51%) stocks. Meanwhile, real estate (-0.90%), financials (-0.89%) and materials (-0.82%) dragged the index lower. Although yesterday’s earnings stack was light, today’s line up includes BP, Starbucks, Airbnb and PayPal.

Asian equity markets opened sharply lower this morning on the fresh geopolitical tensions between the US and China over Taiwan. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-2.96%) is leading losses after yesterday’s data showed that Hong Kong slipped into a technical recession as Q2 GDP shrank by -1.4%, contracting for the second consecutive quarter as global headwinds mount. Mainland China stocks are also sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-2.90%) and CSI (-2.33%) trading deep in the red whilst the Nikkei (-1.59%) is also in negative territory. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.77%) is also weak in early trade. Outside of Asia, DMs stock futures point to a lower restart with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.38%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.40%) and DAX (-0.50%) all turning lower.

As we go to print, the RBA board has raised rates by another 50 basis points to 1.85%. Their economic forecasts seem to have been lowered and they have now said monetary policy is “not on a pre-set path” which some are already interpreting as possibly meaning 25bps instead of 50bps at the next meeting. Aussie 10yr yields dropped 7-8bps on the announcement and 10bps on the day.

Back to yesterday, and the important US ISM index, on balance, painted a slightly more comforting picture than it could have been – although the index slowed to the lowest since June 2020. The headline came in above the median estimate on Bloomberg (52.8 vs 52.0). We did see a second month in a row of below-50 score for new orders, but a fall in prices paid from 78.5 to 60.0, the lowest since August 2020, offered some respite to fears about price pressures. Similarly, a rise in the employment gauge from 47.3 to 49.9, beating estimates, was also a positive. The manufacturing PMI was revised down a tenth from the preliminary reading which didn’t move the needle. JOLTS today will be on my radar given it’s been the best measure of US labour market tightness over the past year or so. Also Fed hawks Mester (lunchtime US) and Bullard (after the closing bell) will be speaking today.

Turning to Europe, price action across sovereign bond markets was driven by dovish repricing of ECB’s monetary policy, in contrast to the US where the front end held up. A cloudier growth outlook from yesterday’s European data releases helped drive yields lower – retail sales in Germany unexpectedly contracted in June (-1.6% vs estimates of +0.3%) and Italy’s manufacturing PMI slipped below 50 (48.5 vs 49.0 expected). So Bund yields fell -3.8bps, similar to OATs (-3.1bps). The decline was more pronounced in peripheral yields and spreads, with BTPs (-12.9bps) in particular dropping below 3% for the first time since May of this year, perhaps on further follow through from last week’s story that the far right party leading the polls aren’t planning to break EU budget rules. Spreads have recovered the lost ground from Draghi’s resignation announcement now. Weaker economic data overpowered the effect of lower yields and sent European stocks faded into the close after being higher most of the day with the STOXX 600 eventually declining -0.19%. The Italian market outperformed (+0.11%) for the reasons discussed above.

Early this morning, data showed that South Korea’s July CPI inflation rate rose to +6.3% y/y, hitting its highest level since November 1998 (v/s +6.0% in June), in line with the market consensus. The strong inflation data comes as the Bank of Korea (BOK) mulls further interest rate hikes at its next policy meeting on August 25.

To the day ahead now and there is a relatively short list of economic indicators to watch, including June JOLTS report and total vehicle sales (July) for the US, UK’s July Nationwide house price index and July PMI for Canada. Given the apparent uncertainty about the direction of the Fed in markets, many will be awaiting Fed’s Bullard, Mester and Evans, who will speak throughout the day. And in corporate earnings, it will be a busy day featuring results from BP, Caterpillar, Ferrari, Marriott, KKR, Uber, S&P Global, Occidental Petroleum, Electronic Arts, Gilead Sciences, Advanced Micro Devices, Starbucks, Airbnb, PayPal, Marathon Petroleum.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Tentative trade as we await Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan, Fed speak features – Newsquawk US Market Open

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TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses are pressured as the general tone remains tentative ahead of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%; note, FTSE 100 -0.1% notably outperforms following earnings from BP +3.0%.
  • Stateside, futures are similarly downbeat and have been drifting lower amid the incremental updates to Pelosi and her possible Taiwan arrival time of circa. 14:30BST/09:30ET; ES -1.0%.
  • DXY lifts as activity currencies wane on the above risk tone alongside JPY extending its winning streak; AUD slips post 50bp hike
  • Core fixed income is underpinned pre-Pelosi and Fed speak while UK issuance was twice over-subscribed
  • Going into JTC, FBN source says Saudi will push OPEC+ to increase oil production at Wednesday’s gathering
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings from Uniper, PayPal, Gilead, Uber & Starbucks.

As of 11:05BST/06:05ET

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings from Uniper, PayPal, Gilead, Uber & Starbucks.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

TAIWAN/PELOSI

  • Click here for newsquawk analysis on the subject.
  • Several Chinese warplanes flew close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning and several Chinese warships have stayed close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait since Monday, according to a source briefed on the matter cited by Reuters. It was also reported that Taiwan’s Defence Ministry reinforced its combat alertness level from Tuesday morning to Thursday noon, according to the official Central News Agency citing sources.
  • Global Times’ Hu Xijin says “Based on what I know, in response to Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan, Beijing has formulated a series of countermeasures, including military actions.”
  • China’s Foreign Ministry says their position on US House Speaker Pelosi’s potential Taiwan visit is clear, will take all necessary measures to preserve interests.
  • The plane (SPAR19) likely carrying the delegation of US House Speaker Pelosi is in the air, having departed Kuala Lumpur. It is taking a route around the Philippines to Taiwan. Sources suggest this is designed to minimize the security risks, according to CNN’s RoginFollows FlightRadar24 showing the craft in-flight earlier, no confirmation that Pelosi is onboard or as to its destination/flight path.
  • SET News expects US House Speaker Pelosi in Taipei at 21:30 local time (14:30BST/09:30EDT).
  • “Both of aircraft carriers of the PLA Navy have reportedly moved out from their homeports respectively amid Pelosi’s possible visit to the island of Taiwan, which media reported could happen Tuesday evening.”, according to Global Times.
  • Xiamen Air in East China’s Fujian Province announced on Tuesday the adjustment of some of its flights due to flow control, via Global Times. Geographically, the Fujian province is in close proximity to Taiwan
  • PLA’s Eastern Theater Command conducts live-fire drills in East China Sea, practicing subjects such as air defense, anti-reconnaissance, missile defense, and long-range sea strikes, via CCTV.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US President Biden held a briefing where he confirmed Al Qaeda leader Zawahiri was killed during a US operation on Saturday, while a senior US official said that Zawahiri’s death deals a significant blow to Al Qaeda and that there was a legal basis for the operation against Zawahiri. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Blinken commented that by hosting and sheltering the Al Qaeda leader in Kabul, the Taliban grossly violated the Doha agreement, according to Reuters.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister says that “Washington cannot get concessions from us at the negotiating table by continuing to impose sanctions”, according to Al Jazeera.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are pressured as the general tone remains tentative ahead of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%; note, FTSE 100 -0.1% notably outperforms following earnings from BP +3.0%.
  • As such, the Energy sector bucks the trend which has the majority in the red and a defensive bias in-play.
  • Stateside, futures are similarly downbeat and have been drifting lower amid the incremental updates to Pelosi and her possible Taiwan arrival time of circa. 14:30BST/09:30ET; ES -1.0%.
  • Apple (AAPL) files final pricing term sheet for four-part notes offering of up to USD 5.5bln, according to a filing.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Yen extends winning streak through yet more key levels vs Buck and irrespective of general Greenback recovery on heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan
  • USD/JPY breaches support around 131.35 and probes 130.50 before stalling, but remains sub-131.00 even though the DXY hovers above 105.500 within a 105.030-710 range.
  • Aussie undermined by risk aversion and no hawkish shift by RBA after latest 50bp hike; AUD/USD nearer 0.6900 having climbed to within a few pips of 0.7050 on Monday.
  • Kiwi holds up better with AUD/NZD tailwind awaiting NZ jobs data, NZD/USD hovering just under 0.6300 and cross closer to 1.1000 than 1.1100.
  • Euro and Pound wane after falling fractionally short of round number levels vs Dollar, EUR/USD back under 1.0250 vs 1.0294 at best, Cable pivoting 1.2200 from 1.2293 yesterday.
  • Loonie and Franc rangy after return from Canadian and Swiss market holidays, USD/CAD straddling 1.2850 and USD/CHF rotating around 0.9500.
  • Yuan off lows after slightly firmer PBoC midpoint fix, but awaiting repercussions of Pelosi trip given Chinese warnings about strong reprisals, USD/CNH circa 6.7700 and USD/CNY just below 6.7600 vs 6.7950+ and 6.7800+ respectively.
  • South Africa’s Eskom says due to a shortage of generation capacity, Stage Two loadshedding could be implemented at short notice between 16:00-00:00 over the next three days.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Taiwan-related risk aversion keeps bonds afloat ahead of relatively light pm agenda before a trio of Fed speakers.
  • Bunds hold above 159.00 within 159.70-158.57 range, Gilts around 119.50 between 119.70-20 parameters and T-note nearer 122-02 peak than 121-17+ trough.
  • UK 2032 supply comfortably twice oversubscribed irrespective of little concession.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures trade with both contracts under the USD 100/bbl mark as the participants juggle a myriad of major factors, incl. the JTC commencing shortly.
  • Spot gold is stable and just below the 50-DMA at USD 1793/oz while base metals succumb to the broader tone.
  • A source with knowledge of last month’s meeting between President Biden and Saudi King Salman said the Saudis will push OPEC+ to increase oil production at their meeting on Wednesday and that the Saudi King made the assurance to President Biden during their face-to-face meeting July 16th, according to Fox Business’s Lawrence.
  • US Senator Manchin “secured a commitment” from President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Speaker Pelosi for completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, according to 13NEWS.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Foreign Secretary Truss suggested she would ‘ignore’ Scottish First Minister Sturgeon and answered “no, no, no” when questioned regarding the prospect of another independence referendum if she were to become the next PM, according to Sky News.
  • France, Italy and Spain asked the European Commission for legislation to ensure big tech companies pay some network costs, according to a document cited by Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 58.0 (Prev. 59.1)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • White House and retailers reportedly discussed price cuts after tariff relief, according to CNBC citing sources.
  • California Governor declares a monkeypox emergency to bolster vaccination efforts, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin remains under modest pressure and has incrementally lost the USD 23k mark, but remains comfortably above last-week’s USD 20.6k trough.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks followed suit to the weak performance across global counterparts as tensions simmered amid Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan.
  • ASX 200 was initially pressured ahead of the RBA rate decision where the central bank hiked by 50bp, as expected, although most of the losses in the index were pared amid a lack of any hawkish surprises in the statement and after the central bank noted it was not on a pre-set path.
  • Nikkei 225 declined amid a slew of earnings and continued unwinding of the JPY depreciation.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed due to the ongoing US-China tensions after reports that House Speaker Pelosi will arrive in Taiwan late on Tuesday despite the military threats by China, while losses in Hong Kong were exacerbated by weakness in tech and it was also reported that Chinese leaders said the GDP goal is guidance and not a hard target which doesn’t provide much confidence in China’s economy.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese leaders said the GDP goal is guidance and not a hard target, according to Bloomberg.
  • RBA hiked the Cash Rate Target by 50bps to 1.85%, as expected, while it reiterated that the Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions and is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time but noted that it is not on a pre-set path. Furthermore, it reaffirmed its view that inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3% range and noted that a key source of uncertainty continues to be the behaviour of household spending.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Building Approvals MM (Jun) -0.7% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. 9.9%, Rev. 11.2%)
  • Australian Home Loans MM (Jun) -4.4% vs Exp. -3.0% (Prev. 1.7%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 73.69 PTS OR 2.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 476.63 OR 2.26%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 398.67 OR % 1.72.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.05%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 67586//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7707//    /Oil DOWN TO 94.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 100.68// SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 73.69 PTS OR 2.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 476.63 OR 2.36%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 398.67 OR % 1.72.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

Pelosi lands in Taiwan

(zerohedge)

China Blasts ‘Severe Violation’ Of Sovereignty As Pelosi Becomes Highest US Official To Visit Taiwan In 25 Years

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Update(11:10ET): Some quick reaction headlines after Pelosi has landed in Taipei, and is expected to stay overnight:

  • CHINA PLA SAYS TO CONDUCT MILITARY DRILLS ON AUG. 4-7: XINHUA
  • CHINA SAYS PELOSI’S VISIT VIOLATES ONE CHINA PRINCIPLE: XINHUA
  • PELOSI’S VISIT ‘SEVERLY IMPACTS’ CHINA-US FOUNDATION: XINHUA
  • MOFA SAYS VISIT VIOLATES CHINESE TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY: XINHUA
  • 10-YEAR YIELD HITS SESSION HIGH AS TAIWAN FOREIGN MINISTER GREETS U.S. HOUSE SPEAKER PELOSI, LAST UP 7 BPS AT 2.6757%
  • CHINA SAYS VISIT ‘DANGEROUS ACT OF PLAYING WITH FIRE’: XINHUA
  • PELOSI: TALKS W/ TAIWAN TO FOCUS ON REAFFIRMING OUR SUPPOR
  • PELOSI: VISIT IN NO WAY CONTRADICTS LONGSTANDING US POLICY
  • PELOSI: MY TRIP TO TAIWAN REFLECTS MY COMMITMENT TO A VIBRANT DEMOCRACY

Pelosi’s office released her official statement upon landing:

“Our visit is part of our broader trip to the Indo-Pacific — including Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan — focused on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance.  Our discussions with Taiwan leadership will focus on reaffirming our support for our partner and on promoting our shared interests, including advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region.  America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.”

“Our visit is one of several Congressional delegations to Taiwan – and it in no way contradicts longstanding United States policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances.  The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo.”

A WSJ correspondent notes “Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry is hosting a live stream of a welcoming ceremony for a very special, albeit unnamed, guest at Taipei Songshan Airport.” Meanwhile, regional reporting says a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force Su-35 fighter jet(s) is crossing the Taiwan Straight. Breaking headlines:

CIVIL DEFENSE WARNING SIRENS TURNED ON IN CHINA

end

then:

China Vows ‘Targeted Military Actions’, Including Live Fire Drills Around Taiwan, As Pelosi Stays Overnight

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 11:56 AM

Update(11:56ET)As expected China’s response has been swift, with the PLA military kicking off ‘live fire’ drills in multiple areas in waters surrounding Taiwan. Beijing announced these exercises will continue from the evening of Aug.2 (literally having started within the hour of Pelosi landing in Taipei) through the next days.

China has further vowed what a statement called “targeted military actions” in response to the official visit. Additionally this is to include missile tests off of Taiwan’s east coast

China’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday night it will conduct a series of targeted military operations to “safeguard national sovereignty” in response to Pelosi’s visit. It vowed to “resolutely thwart external interference” and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist attempts’.”

It’s confirmed that Pelosi will stay the night, and is expected to next meet with Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, and then depart the island.

Given given the location of PLA “shooting exercises” – said to be in six regions surrounding the self-ruled island, according to a map circulating posted to Weibo, a natural question arises: will the situation be safe and secure enough for Pelosi’s US Air Force-operated Boeing C-40C to depart the island the next day? Is China sending a stern message in ‘boxing’ off the island? image.png

END

THEN

China Summons US Ambassador Overnight, Says Washington “Must Pay The Price”

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 03:45 PM

Update(1545ET)It’s the middle of the night local time, but China has announced the foreign ministry has summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns in order to “protest” Pelosi’s landing in Taiwan, where she’s due to meet with Tsai Ing-wen in the morning. This as PLA military drills surrounding the self-ruled island are reported to be ongoing, including ‘live fire’ exercises.

According to a readout in state-run Global Times, “China’s Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns overnight to protest against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan island late Tuesday night, stressing that the nature of Pelosi’s visit is extremely vicious and the consequence is very grave. The Chinese side will not sit idly by.”

Further GT writes, “Noting that the US government should have restrained Pelosi’s unscrupulous move and prevented her from going against the historical trend but instead indulged her and colluded with her, which exacerbates the tension in the Taiwan Straits and seriously damages China-US ties, Xie said the US must pay the price for its own mistake. China will take necessary and resolute countermeasures and we mean what we say.”

This “pay the price” warning will likely only be revealed in full, in terms of the options Beijing has in store for both Washington and Taipei, in the coming days or even weeks after Pelosi departs tomorrow.

END

CHINA

China’s housing slump is now becoming a real issue.  It represents 29% of China’s total GDP and thus cannot be papered over.

This will stop China’s growth and cause many problems for them

a must read…

Dr Lacalle….

China’s Housing Market Slump Becomes A Real Issue

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

A few months ago, I wrote that the Chinese slowdown was much more than COVID-19 related and pointed to the challenges coming from the excessive weight of the real estate sector in the economy.

A research paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang (pdf) estimated that the real estate sector constitutes 29 percent of China’s GDP.

The problems coming from the slow-motion deterioration of the property sector have extended to the financial challenges of China’s local governments and may create a relevant fiscal problem for the nation’s public accounts.

“Sales at China’s largest housing developers fell 43 percent in June from a year earlier, according to China Real Estate Information Corp,” Bloomberg reported, creating an alarming funding gap for local governments, where finances are heavily dependent on land sale revenues, and a significant problem for the financial sector and the government. China’s central bank has promised to mobilize a $148 billion bailout to complete unfinished real estate projects as anger rises among property buyers that haven’t received their homes after advancing significant payments.

The size of the real estate sector in the economy is enormous, and the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) of a slump in sales may be impossible to offset with other sectors. According to S&P Global, China’s property sales will probably drop by about 30 percent this year due to the increasing number of homebuyers’ mortgage payment suspensions. This could be worse than in 2008 when sales fell by roughly 20 percent, Esther Liu at S&P Global Ratings told CNBC. There’s no sector in China that can mitigate the impact of such a drop in tax revenues and output.

JP Morgan explained the extent of the problem in a recent report “China’s housing market alarm bell rings again.” According to the report, “Since June 30, mortgage suspension requests due to delayed home delivery have expanded to more than 300 projects in different parts of China.” JP Morgan’s equity research team estimates that these requests represent a total value of 330 billion yuan ($49 billion) (or a mortgage value of 132 billion yuan ($20 billion) assuming a 40 percent loan to value).

Local governments have seen their fiscal revenue decline by 7.9 percent in the first half of 2022, and land sales collapsed by 31.4 percent. “Meanwhile, fiscal expenses by local governments rose 6.4% due to stickiness in fiscal spending and increasing costs associated with the zero-COVID policy,” and JP Morgan estimates that a 5 percentage point deceleration in real estate investment would reduce GDP growth by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points.

There are relevant implications for many sectors and for families. Real estate developers were the largest issuers of commercial paper in China, and millions of savers invested in bonds and debt instruments of property developers to generate stable and safe returns. Many of those are defaulting. According to ANZ bank, China bond defaults have reached $20 billion in 2022, more than double last year’s total. Out of 19 defaults recorded, 18 came from property developers.

Real estate is also a relevant driver of economic activity in the services and other manufacturing sectors. The collapse of many developers is generating ripple effects throughout the sectors that thrive from construction and the activity that real estate incentivizes.

For investors globally, this is largely a domestic issue, and many expect the government to contain it through a series of bailouts and liquidity injections to the financial sector to prevent a credit crunch. From a financial perspective this may be correct, but there’s no way for the Chinese regime to prevent the macroeconomic implications coming from the burst of a bubble of such enormous magnitude. Chinese GDP growth slowed to only 0.4 percent in the second quarter, and youth unemployment is rising to new highs.

The Chinese regime may be able to contain the financial implications of the real estate crisis, but to do so it will have to abandon the target of 5.5 percent GDP growth for 2022 and probably reduce the 2023 objective to a much smaller figure. For years, the regime has been concerned about the rising level of debt in the Chinese economy and the elevated weight of the housing sector, but it seemed it expected growth and the improvement in the so-called “new economy” to disguise the problem.

Many international analysts expected China to be the first economy to prove that it could navigate a real estate bubble by deflating it through central planification. There was too much hope placed on central planning and too little attention on the extent of the problem.

Now it’s evident that there’s no sector that can dilute the effect of a real estate bubble burst. Even if the financial challenge is addressed through bailouts and liquidity injections, the impact will have to manifest itself in the currency, inflation, unemployment, growth, or all at the same time. Many believe that the easiest solution is to depreciate the yuan, but the central bank knows it isn’t that easy, as inflation would deteriorate the standards of living of an already discontent population, and devaluation would destroy the purchasing power of real wages and the value of savings.

If we can learn anything from this property slump it’s that inflating growth with a central-planned housing bubble never leads to an easy and manageable solution.

end 

CHINA

New home sales fall by 40% as the mortgage revolt spreads from Heinen province to other parts of China

(zerohedge) 

China New Home Sales Crater 40% As Mortgage Revolt Spreads

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 11:20 PM

With just 12 hours to go until Nancy Pelosi is reportedly scheduled to land in Taiwan (around 10:20pm local time on Tuesday), prevailing consensus is that for all the posturing and heated rhetoric, nothing much will happen. Consider the following quote from General Frank Kearny:

“The Chinese have stated that they would attempt to deter her flight using Chinese aircraft creating a threatening situation which could escalate. I seriously doubt they would shoot it down as also threatened. I suspect the Taiwanese would be threatened as well with provocative demonstrations of air and naval actions. I don’t believe these are just threats. I believe some action will occur with the potential for unintended consequences.”

Or the following assessment from General Spider Marks:

“China will be diplomatically aggressive…tough talk, little likelihood China will militarily interfere with Pelosi’s visit should she get the green light from President Biden to go. China, not unlike the Russians and Iranians in the Persian Gulf, may threaten Pelosi’s aircraft or possibly US naval ships which are underway in the vicinity. The risks are too high for the Chinese to interfere and not expect (and wargame) the worse possible outcome.”

And while we certainly hope that such sanguine assessments are accurate considering that the alternative is global thermonuclear war, many are forgetting that while the reeling Biden administration would certainly benefit from the distraction that is a limited military conflict, so would China. The reason for that is that war may not be good for a whole lot of things, when it comes to economic growth it is the proverbial Keynesian jackpot.

And China certainly needs economic growth. Moments ago Bloomberg blasted out a flashing red headlines saying that…

  • *CHINESE LEADERS SAY GDP GOAL IS GUIDANCE, NOT A HARD TARGET

In the article, Bloomberg reports that China’s top leaders told government officials last week that this year’s economic growth target of “around 5.5%” should serve as guidance rather than a hard target that must be hit.

Leaders held meetings with ministerial and provincial-level officials last week, during which they were told the target won’t be used to evaluate their performance and there won’t be penalties for failing to achieve it, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The leaders also acknowledged that the chances of meeting the target were slim, the people said.

This is certainly plausible, as there is a very clear reason why China’s economy is suddenly sinking rapidly, and it has everything to do with China’s biggest asset class: property.

As the WSJ reported on Sunday, a short-lived, 2-month recovery in China’s home sales ended with a bang in July, as the widespread mortgage revolt discussed here previously which erupted over concerns that ailing property developers wouldn’t be able to deliver still-unfinished apartments weighed on demand.

Sales at the country’s top 100 property developers fell 40% in July from the same period last year to the equivalent of $77.6 billion, or 523.14 billion yuan, according to data released Sunday by CRIC, a Chinese real-estate data provider.

But while the annual numbers have been a well-known horrorshow following last year’s implosion of Evergrande and most of its property developer peers, July sales were also down 28.6% sequentially from June, ending a two-month recovery in month-to-month sales growth. The silver lining: apartment sales showed increases in May and June from the previous months, as activity picked up following Covid lockdowns in Shanghai and other Chinese cities earlier this year.

Week-over-week data put together earlier by CRIC to study the impact of the mortgage revolt had signaled the July decline. In 30 cities CRIC determined to have been seriously affected by the revolt, new home sales dropped by 12% in the week ended July 10 from the week before, then fell 41% in the week ended July 17.

China’s private-sector property developers went on a yearslong, debt-fueled building boom, selling homes before they were built, until a funding crisis that began last year led to defaults and stalled projects. Buyers who typically sank large down payments into those homes have been venting their frustrations all summer. Meanwhile the value of China’s property market, which Goldman has estimated at $62 trillion, making it the world’s largest standalone asset class….

… is cracking much to the horror of Beijing which knows that if Chinese housing, which is where the bulk of China’s middle class has parked its net worth, goes, it may well be game over so might as well spark a foreign conflict as an economic renaissance Hail Mary.

Going back to the immediate cause for the latest plunge in new home sales, the culprit is the mortgage revolt which started at the end of June at an Evergrande project in Jingdezhen, in central China’s Jiangxi province, where frustrated home buyers threatened to renege on mortgages on unfinished properties. Thousands of buyers from roughly 320 projects across the country had followed suit as of July 29, according to a tally of statements from homeowners who said they will stop paying their mortgages circulating on GitHub.

Home buyers -some waving signs saying “Construction stops and mortgage stops!” -say the threat to halt payments is the only way to get their voices heard as projects stall and delivery times drag out.

But the bigger problem is that China’s broadly slowing economy – where property has traditionally been one of the core support pillars – is biting into employment and incomes is adding to the pressure. As a result, some buyers say they are increasingly unwilling to keep paying for a home they aren’t sure they will ever receive (in China, one purchases a new home while it is still in production, with little to no assurance one will get a finished product). More home buyers are choosing second-hand homes or new ones built by state-owned developers, which are typically in a stronger financial position.

And so, pressure on the government is building, but hopes for a large real-estate rescue package from Beijing remain unrealized. The Politburo, China’s top policy-making body, made clear recently that local governments are ultimately responsible for fixing the property woes in their markets. At the same time, amid China’s austerity, budget-strapped local authorities have strained to boost property demand, resorting to increasingly creative measures. Dozens of cities have lowered down payments and interest rates. Some are offering outright cash subsidies. Others have announced relief funds for cash-strapped developers or plans to take over troubled projects.

“But the sector won’t stabilize if developers’ liquidity crunch is not relieved,” said Song Hongwei, a research director of Tongce Research Institute, which tracks and analyzes China’s real-estate market.

It is in this context that a (limited) war is just the desired catalyst needed to reverse China’s accelerating economic contraction. And all that Beijing needed was an appropriate opportunity to launch one… an opportunity which has presented itself thanks to Nancy Pelosi’s unprecedented boondoggle into Taiwan which we are confident Beijing will now milk (or rather vodka) for all it’s worth. 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

Europe is in a mess led by Germany.  Now out:  German retail sales and it crashes the most on record. Europe is now in a recession

(zerohedge)

“Miserable” German Retail Sales Crash The Most On Record As Europe Slumps Into Recession

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 02:45 AM

While it is now largely consensus that Europe is sliding into a recession, if not already in one, few were prepared for today’s retail sales print from Germany which was shocking: according to Destatis, the German national statistics office, German retail sales fell at the largest annual rate since records began in 1994, highlighting the scale of the economic collapse facing the eurozone’s largest economy.

Retail sales volumes dropped 9.8% in June (unadjusted) compared with the same month last year.

That said, while German retail sales volumes fell significantly, consumers reduced their overall spending by a much smaller amount, an annual drop of only 0.8 per cent, due to inflation’s impact on purchasing power. Still, Monday’s figures disappointed investors, with the 1.6% fall in sequential volumes between May and June much worse than the 0.2% expansion forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

The fall in retail spending also reflects a shift in spending back to services – not included in retail sales – after the boom in demand for goods that occurred during the early quarters of the coronavirus pandemic, when restaurants, bars and entertainment venues were often closed.

According to Claus Vistesen, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief eurozone economist, the figures were “miserable” and mainly due to the impact of soaring prices on consumer spending. Inflation in Germany is at a multi-decade high of 8.5%.

Vistesen noted that the retail sales decline could lead to a downward revision of last week’s figure for German gross domestic product, which was a flash estimate and is often subject to change.

The plunge in retail sales follows news on Friday that German economic growth stagnated between the first and second quarters, and an update of business and consumer confidence which is now at its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic.

Translation: recession. Indeed, while the eurozone economy as a whole grew 0.7% between the first and second quarters, analysts now almost uniformly expect the region to enter a downturn in the coming months as the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on energy markets and confidence bites

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said manufacturing activity in Germany and elsewhere was “sinking into an increasingly steep downturn, adding to the region’s recession risks”.

The closely watched purchasing managers’ indices for eurozone manufacturing, also out on Monday, showed factory activity was now slipping across the eurozone. And just in case the recession case wasn’t strong enough, Germany’s manufacturing PMI dropped below the crucial 50 level, confirming a contraction, for the first time in two years.

Across the region, new orders fell — a sign that conditions are likely to remain tough in the coming months. The biggest risk facing the region is that tensions with Moscow worsen, triggering Russia to reduce — or halt — gas flows to the EU. Economists believe this would trigger a major recession across the bloc.

Paradoxically, and similar to the US, even as Europe slumps into a deep recession, its labor market remains surprisingly strong. Although here too cracks are appearing: labor data also released on Monday showed that in June the number of unemployed people rose in the eurozone for the first time in 14 months, the FT reported.

While the region’s labor market remains one relatively bright spot and the joblessness rate remained unchanged at a record low of 6.6 per cent, the absolute figure of those looking for work was up by 25,000 to almost 11 million.

Needless to say as a full-blown recession grips Europe and as millions of workers lose their jobs in the next few months, the distinct choice between fighting inflation or fighting an economic collapse and mass layoffs, will make life for central banks much more difficult. It’s also why the ECB’s rate hiking cycle will end just a few months after it started in late July, in a mirror image to what happened the last time when the ECB hiked in 2011 only to reverse a few short months later…

end

Europe’s Rhine River At Dangerously Low Levels, Centimeters From Shipping Disruption

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 01:40 PM

The Rhine River’s low water levels threaten Germany’s largest industrial players that rely on the 800-mile (1,288-kilometer) waterway from Switzerland to the North Sea for transport. A new estimate cautioned water levels could decline through the weekend, taking it within centimeters of being impassable by barge. 

The official depth at Kaub near Frankfurt, Germany, declined to 23.6 inches (60 centimeters) on Tuesday, its lowest for this time of year in at least two decades, according to Germany’s WSV inland waterway agency. The last time water levels were this low was December 2018. 

New forecasts indicate the water level at Kaub will continue to decrease to 18.5 inches (47 centimeters) by Saturday, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. 

If 47 centimeters is reached, Kaub would be 2.5 inches (7 centimeters) from being impassable by barge. 

In response to recent sliding water levels, Riverlake, a vessel broker, said barges hauling goods between Upper Rhine and Rotterdam had reduced weight to about a third of capacity to improve the draft in shallow parts of the waterway. Less shipping capacity is driving up transport costs to near record highs. 

For some context, barges on inland waterways haul about 5%-10% of German freight, with about 80% of that on the Rhine, including a third of domestic crude oil, natural gas, and coal shipping. The low water level at Kaub could exacerbate the worst energy-supply crunch in decades, stoking even higher inflation that would result in a more aggressive ECB hiking interest rates. 

“Water levels are forecast to fall near levels where it’s uneconomical for barges carrying commodities to sail beyond Kaub. On a more macro level, this puts the ECB in an even tougher spot. With waterways drying up, depleted energy resources, price pressures, and the euro-zone manufacturing downturn worsening, would the ECB be able to pile on another 50-bp hike? Money markets are starting to pare rate hike bets as uncertainty dominates,” Bloomberg’s Nour Al Ali wrote. 

Josh Folds, a European oil analyst at consultants Facts Global Energy, said Rhine disruptions would force companies to search for alternative transport on land, such as rail and trucking. 

There appears to be no relief in sight as “longer-range models suggest drought conditions will probably continue for the next months,” said Andreas Friedrich of the DWD Federal Weather Agency. 

All eyes are on Rhine water levels this weekend as Europe’s crucial waterway is on the brink of closing.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

LEBANON/ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Hezbollah threatens Israel again with war over the disputed Karish gas field

(Charles Kennedy/OilPrice.com)

Hezbollah Threatens Israel With War Over Disputed Gas Field

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • Lebanon’s armed Hezbollah group threatened Israel that drilling at the Karish gas field could result in war.
  • Israel and Lebanon are in a years-long dispute over the demarcation of their territorial waters in the Mediterranean.
  • Israel has already warned early on that any damage to the drilling rig in Karish will result in an immediate reaction.

Lebanon’s armed Hezbollah group warned Israel on Sunday against drilling at an offshore gas field, renewing a threat that it could escalate the offshore border demarcation dispute to a war.

Hezbollah, backed by Iran, aired a video on its Al-Manar television channel, showing drone footage of Israeli barges at the gas field and their coordinates. The video ends with footage of a rocket with the words “within range” in Arabic and Hebrew. The text on the video message opens with “Playing with time is useless,” also in both languages.  

Israel and Lebanon, which do not have diplomatic relations, are in a years-long dispute over the demarcation of their territorial waters in the Mediterranean.

The dispute escalated this summer after UK’s Energean, which has been awarded the right to drill at the offshore Karish field, arrived on the site with a rig, prompting an immediate reaction from Beirut. The Lebanese president and the caretaker prime minister of the country accused Israel of violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Karish is the focus of the rift. According to Israel, Karish lies in its territorial waters. According to Lebanon, it falls within a triangle of contested waters because the two cannot agree where exactly the border passes.

Israel has already warned early on that any damage to the drilling rig in Karish—like attacks on any gas drilling rigs in its waters—will be construed as an attack on the state, implying there would be an immediate reaction.

The latest video threat from Hezbollah came as Amos Hochstein, U.S. Special Presidential Coordinator for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, traveled to Lebanon on Sunday.

Hochstein was set to “discuss sustainable solutions to Lebanon’s energy crisis, including the Biden Administration’s commitment to facilitating negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on the maritime boundary,” the U.S. Department of the State said“Reaching a resolution is both necessary and possible, but can only be done through negotiations and diplomacy,” the State Department added.  

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Gottlieb, a Pfizer board member predicts Monkeypox will become a public health failure.

The problem is that he never states how this virus came to be

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Pfizer Board Member Predicts Monkeypox Will Become A ‘Public Health Failure’

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 02:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pfizer board member Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that the United States lacks a federal infrastructure capable of dealing with public health emergencies such as monkeypox.

“Now if monkeypox ‌gains a permanent foothold in the U‌nited States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable,” the former Food and Drug Administration head wrote in and op-ed for the New York Times.

“Our lapses extend beyond political decision making to the agencies tasked with protecting us from these threats.”

Gottlieb claimed the United States did not test enough people for the virus, which is overwhelmingly spreading via homosexual men, in the early part of the outbreak while the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) should have utilized commercial labs sooner. It wasn’t until June that the CDC expanded to using those labs, he noted.

Data released by the CDC shows monkeypox, which hasn’t caused any deaths outside Africa in the recent outbreak, has infected about 5,200 people in the United States as of Sunday. Wyoming, Montana, and Vermont are the only states that haven’t reported any cases so far.

Over the past several days, health departments in New York City and San Francisco declared the virus a public health emergency, allowing those municipalities to free up more funding and resources. Days before, the head of the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global public health emergency.

More Details

“Its cultural instinct is to take a deliberative approach, debating each decision,” Gottlieb said of the CDC’s response. “With COVID, the virus ‌‌gained ground quickly. With ‌‌monkeypox, which spreads more slowly, typically through very close contact, the shortcomings of CDC’s cultural approach haven’t been as acute yet. But the shortfalls are the same.”

Read more here…

Dr Paul Alexander..

THIS IS BIG

Vaccine Impact



Pfizer Vaccine Damaged Healthcare Worker to Unvaccinated Friends: “I Totally Commend You: I Wish I Were One of You.”

August 1, 2022 6:39 pm

A healthcare worker who claims she was injured by the Pfizer COVID vaccine she was required to receive as a condition for employment, and now suffers from CIDP (Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy) which she says has changed her life completely, recently went public to answer a question that apparently others in her social media network have asked her: “What do you think about people who have refused the COVID vaccine?” As we have recently reported, young, previously healthy doctors in Canada have been dying in mass recently, where COVID-19 injections, including boosters, are required as a condition for employment. So when one of them actually survives their COVID-19 shots, and has a message they want to take public, I think it is good to give them a voice to warn others. This woman who is not identified in the video, nor the place she worked (I am assuming that her injuries have maybe caused her to have to quit working and collect disability), starts out by saying: “If I had to do it all over again, I would never have gotten the vaccine.” She fully admits that she received the COVID vaccine because she “believed” what the medical authorities and media were saying. She apparently did not take any time at all to investigate the other side of the story, and potential side effects. She started out mocking those who were the ones refusing the shots, but she noticed that the unvaccinated among her friends were the ones who were not getting sick, and those who did recovered quickly. So now she says: “I have totally changed my mind. They were the smart ones. They were the ones who didn’t wear the masks. They were the ones that hung around each other and never caught it – never spread it. The ones that aren’t (vaccinated), I totally commend you, and I wish I were one of you. I think very highly of you. I’m upset with myself. No job is worth it.”

Read More…


Israel’s War On Cash Is About To Get More Drastic

August 1, 2022 7:01 pm

Starting Monday, it will be a criminal offense in Israel to pay more than the equivalent of $1,700 in cash to a business or $4,360 in cash to individual, as the government intensifies its ongoing war on tangible money. Israel also limits the extent to which cash is used in transactions involving multiple payment methods. If the total transaction value is more than the above thresholds, cash may only be used for 10% of the purchase. Car purchases are given a higher, 50,000 NIS (New Israeli Shekels) limit — about $14,700. Violators are subject to penalties that can reach 25% of the transaction for individuals and 30% for businesses.

Read More…

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA///AGRICULTURAL WAR//UN/W.E.F.

END

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine injuries are quietly being compensated around the world:


Milan Sabioncello7:44 AM (2 minutes ago)
to me

https://www.theepochtimes.com/covid-vaccine-injuries-quietly-being-compensated-around-the-world-are-you-eligible_4632576.html

MICHAEL EVERY

“What Happens Next? Nobody Knows – But It Doesn’t Look Good At All”

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Dire Straits

So, there is no longer any Nancy Drew Mystery. US House Speaker Pelosi will be in Taiwan today, says Bloomberg; she will meet with President Tsai Ing-Wen on Wednesday, says the Financial Times. That is no real surprise given Pelosi’s track record –she visited Tiananmen Square in 1989 and was arrested and detained– and given going was the better geostrategic damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t choice.

What happens next? Nobody knows – but it doesn’t look good at all. Let’s unpack why.

First, those who have kept their heads in the sand are forced to wake up and smell the deeply unpleasant coffee. There has been a lot of that in 2022. There is *a lot* more to come yet, e.g.,

  • “There are no war risks over Taiwan.” No, there always were. Until the geopolitics is resolved (how?), there always will be.
  • “Markets are wrong to link Russia-Ukraine to China-Taiwan.” Because I don’t want to have to shift more of my portfolio or supply chain.
  • “Markets haven’t moved yet.” As I said around 24 hours ago in a work chat, they will as soon as Pelosi arrives or confirms she will arrive. And here we are.

Second, those who were aware of the above issues but were out of the news loop are having to play rapid catch-up. That apparently includes US Secretary of State Blinken, who stated, “We don’t know if Speaker Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan or not.” Is the White House also in the dark?

Third, we have to consider who is responsible for driving this crisis.

On one hand, the US. If Pelosi wanted to visit Taiwan, she could have just turned up, giving China no time to object, and no rope to hang itself with over its public framing of the issue. The White House could also have blocked Pelosi logistically, not constitutionally. Was this a screw up, or a deliberate ratcheting up of tensions? Hard to say, as this administration blows hot and cold.

It has been flirting with removing China tariffs for absolutely zero quid pro quo. At the same time, it is talking about ‘friend-shoring’ from China; backing the Quad; and AUKUS; and a G7 rival to China’s BRI; and a new Indo-Pacific trade bloc to exclude China; and the Blue Pacific Act to push back against China; and the new I2U2 group to draw India into the Middle East as a counterweight to China. Plus, the open threats of what happens if China helps Russia in Ukraine, and President Biden publicly promising to defend Taiwan if it is attacked, which has had to be walked back by the White House each time.

On the other hand, China. It knows the US sends senior officials to Taiwan all the time. It knows US marines have been training Taiwanese troops. It knows the US sells weapons to Taiwan. It knows the US just re-pledged its commitment to the “One China” policy. It knows that President Biden opposes Taiwanese independence – yet Beijing is now saying that a Pelosi Taiwan visit undermines that critical independence redline, which everyone takes as a trigger for action.

Equally, China knows if it makes a huge fuss, the US then cannot back down. So why is it making so much more a mountain out of a Pelosi-sized molehill? Is it all about the November Party Congress? Does that constrain Xi – or actually free him to act more aggressively on many fronts?

Keep that framing in mind as we lastly consider what might happen next.

“China won’t act militarily because its economy is in trouble,” as I heard yesterday. Which, historically, can also mean the complete opposite. Especially when foreign-policy messaging –“Don’t say we didn’t warn you!”– is the same as before wars vs. India and Vietnam, and when that parallel is underlined in English for the China experts who can’t read Chinese or its history. Also consider that Chinese public opinion appears firmly in favour of a strong nationalistic response to the US ‘provocation’. I just got a message from a China-following friend with close contacts on the mainland who track local social media: “The smell of war is so potent.”

Back to the US side: “We will not take the bait or engage in sabre-rattling,” says the White House press secretary. “ At the same time, we will not be intimidated.” That smells too.

So, buckle up, buckaroos. In short, much more volatility potentially lies ahead this week: yields will likely go lower; stocks may try to use that as an excuse to bounce higher – unless they have any direct or indirect China linkage, which means just about everyone in the US; safe haven FX will get more safe-haven-y. And anyone using Chinese supply chains arguably has even more need to consider not doing so as soon as possible.

Moreover, volatility will likely last far longer than this week, even if the attention span for many in markets won’t. Indeed, the Pelosi visit risks rapidly metastasizing into a Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis.

For those who think Taiwan is Thailand, the First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-55) saw open fighting between the mainland and Taiwan, and China only backed down after US nuclear brinksmanship. The Second Crisis (1958) saw another round of fighting, and again there were risks of nuclear escalation before China backed down. The Third Crisis (1995-96) saw China lobbing missiles, and the US sent an aircraft carrier to force China to back down.

What is the resolution to a Fourth Crisis against a much stronger China demanding Taiwan return to the mainland and threatening force to achieve it? US aircraft carriers no longer seem to intimidate,… so nuclear escalation? Or the threat of economic warfare? If so, from which side?

This is like Russia-Ukraine and the Northern Ireland-Irish border rolled into one: an intractable problem that has no good solution once key political compromises are deliberately taken off the table. The only question is whether we get a Russia-Ukraine or a UK-EU style ‘resolution’ in the short and long term. Or what colour sand you want to put your head into to ignore this uncomfortable fact and keep trading regardless.

Meanwhile, things are also far from happy in the general world economy – but again, that doesn’t mean worse things can’t happen just because it will ruin your August holiday.

German retail sales just collapsed the most on record, down 9.4% y-o-y in value terms and 8.8% m-o-m in volume terms. If sustained, that isn’t a recession, but a depression. The EU manufacturing PMI saw a sub-50 reading again, and while the US ISM survey rose to 52.5, prices paid collapsed to 60 from 74.3, and the gap between new orders (48) and soaring inventories was even more worrying. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed is close to showing the US is on the cusp of three consecutive quarters of negative growth: Paul Krugman will then explain (via fax) that this still isn’t a recession, and it still doesn’t matter if it is.

Relatedly, I just looked back at a New York Times Magazine article (‘On Language’) from 1982, which seems a very different time, world, and media. It notes:

“[In 1977] When Alfred Kahn, Jimmy Carter’s chief inflation fighter, used the politically taboo word ”depression” in a statement from the White House, the economist was pounced upon by assorted communicators and soothing-sayers; as a result, the hapless but happy man pledged to substitute the word ”banana” for ”depression” in any future economic message.

Here we are, five years later, and many people fear a deep, full-fledged banana. In fact, some who write about the economy… have broken the taboo: We are witnessing a boom in the outspoken usage of the word ”depression.”… This unabashed public use of the dirtiest word in economics led to its prompt adoption by the media…

The tossing about of such a word is both political and linguistic news. When the word was flung at Franklin Roosevelt during the mid-1930’s, he waggled a finger at opponents and told them not to speak of rope in the house of a man who had been hanged: ”If I were a Republican leader speaking to a mixed audience, the last word in the whole dictionary that I think I would use is that word ‘depression.’ ” About that time, ”recession” came into being, replacing the odious ”depression,” a word that Henry Vansittart first applied to a slowdown in 1793, and that Aldous Huxley resuscitated in 1934.

Prof. John Kenneth Galbraith informs me that the word first used widely in this regard was ”panic”; Karl Marx later preferred ”crisis”; ultimately, a much softer term –”depression”– was chosen, so as not to panic the crisis-prone. However, the euphemism ”depression” came to be remembered as the moniker for the terrible times it described, and thereby gained a fearsomeness of its own. ”A depression,” says Dr. Galbraith, ”is something that in social memory has taken on the dimension of a disaster.”

Since then, hard times have been euphemized as ”rolling readjustments,” ”crabwise movements” and ”extended seasonal slumps,” but it seemed that linguistic order was just around the corner when the National Bureau of Economic Research defined a recession as ”a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.” Journalistic shorthand reduced that definition to ”a two-quarter decline in gross national product.”

And then it all went bananas again.

Indeed, some are trying to sell what is happening now as a “transition”. Can we perhaps all agree Dire Straits summarises all of our collective global problems and leave it at that?

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

SRI LANKA

ARGENTINA:

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0234 DOWN  0.0029 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 131.03   DOWN 0.366 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2219 DOWN   0.0038

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 73.69 POINTS UP  2.26%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 476.63 PTS OR 2.36% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.05%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 476.63 PTS OR  2.36% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 73.69 PTS DOWN 2.26% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.05% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 398.67 OR 1.72%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1778,15

silver:$20.43

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.43  UP 9  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.84% UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.169% DOWN 0     AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.92%// UP 3   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.02  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.768% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0199  DOWN  .0065   or 65 basis points

USA/Japan: 131.85 UP 0.6455  OR YEN UP 65  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2214  DOWN  0.0042 OR  42 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0008 OR 8 BASIS pts  to 1.2853

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7528  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7609

TURKISH LIRA:  17.94  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.169

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.654% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.944 UP 2 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.71 UP 38   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 2.51 PTS OR  0.03%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 30.67  POINTS OR 0.23%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 23.22 PTS OR 0.36% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 26.20 OR 0.32%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 72.15PTS OR  0.29%

WTI Oil price 94.07  12: EST

Brent Oil:  100.60  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.24  UP 0  AND 7/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.768

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0177 DOWN .0086     OR  86 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2176 DOWN .0081  or  81 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.87  UP 1.479//YEN DOWN 148 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2863 UP 0.0019 (CDN dollar DOWN 19  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 94.14

Brent OIL:  100.17

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.747 UP 14 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.002  UP 8  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.95

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.29   DOWN 0 AND   13/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 401.64 PTS OR 1.22 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 39.18 PTS OR 0.30%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.69 UP 0.85 PTS (3.72)%

GLD: $164.05 DOWN 0.98 CENTS OR 0.59%

SLV/ $18.70 DOWN 38 CENTS OR 2.02%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Pelosi Plane & Powell’s Pals Prompt More Market Mayhem

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Today’s price action was driven by Pelosi (and China’s lack of starting WW3) and hawkish FedSpeak, jawboning back the market’s perception that we are past ‘peak tightening’… returning to ‘forward guidance’.

SF Fed’s Mary Daly jawboned the doves back by stating that The Fed is “nowhere near done” on fighting inflation, adding that “we have made a good start, and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to by this point,” but inflation is “far too high.”

“It really would be premature to unwind all of that and say the job is done,” she said.

“I also think that we’ve been with this high inflation for a while, and really getting too confident that we’ve already solved the problem,” Daly said, adding that the Fed needs to “keep committed until we actually see it in the data.”  

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he is hopeful that reaching 3.5% by the end of the year is “still reasonable.”

“I think that there’s enough time to play out that 50 is a reasonable assessment, but 75 could also be okay” at the September meeting, he said.

“I doubt that more would be called for” at that meeting, Evans added. But, Evans warned that “if we don’t see improvement before too long, we might have to rethink the path a little bit higher.”

Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester said she saw “no signs of a recession” offering no dovish pivot signal by noting that “we have to get inflation under control.”

To really drive the point home, Mester concluded that she “hasn’t seen anything suggesting inflation is leveling off.”

So much for the whole “we are done with forward guidance” narrative.

And the market reacted with rate-hike (and rate-cut) expectations shifting hawkishly today. In fact, rate-hike expectations have erased all of the post-Powell-presser easing…

Source: Bloomberg

And expectations for a Q1 2023 rate-cut are falling fast…

Source: Bloomberg

As Speaker Pelosi’s plane landed in Taiwan, a wave of buying appeared in US equities (because hey, BTFWW3) as it appeared that JPMorgan’s thesis played out – no immediate (major) reaction by China means ‘all clear’ (even though China is beginning a completely encircling military drill around the island). However, after Mester spoke, stocks dumped it all back. The last few minutes saw more selling take The Dow and S&P to the lows of the day…

Today’s meltup move was sponsored by a massive short-squeeze from the opening gap down but once Mester spoke the spell was broken…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were an utter bloodbath today with the belly of the curve getting absolutely crushed as we shifted from “no forward guidance” back to “forward guidance”. 5Y yields were up 22bps today!…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest daily rise in 5Y yields since 3/17/20, erasing all of the post-Powell-presser dovish yield drop…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably, the 3M10Y spread actually inverted today briefly…

Source: Bloomberg

Remember this is the spread that elites told you to focus on when the rest of the curve inverted.

2s10s inverted even further today…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese Yuan rallied back higher – erasing yesterday’s Pelosi anxiety selloff…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar also rallied against its broad fiat peers, but remain below pre-FOMC levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended practically unchanged today after surging on WW3 fears and falling back as the FedSpeak began…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold topped $1800 briefly today before Mester’s chatter hit and the barbarous relic was monkeyhammered lower…

Oil prices were as choppy as every other market today with WTI topping $96 before fading back and ending marginally higher…

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, company executives are getting much more worried about economic growth, judging by their earnings conference calls, even as stocks staged a furious rebound in July.

Source: Bloomberg

Executives and analysts are on track to use phrases related to an economic slowdown three times more on second-quarter calls than they did during first-quarter results, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transcripts for companies in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Stoxx Europe 600 indexes. A Bank of America Corp. tracker also showed corporate sentiment during earnings calls has plummeted even as analysts are still expecting earnings growth to accelerate into next year.

And then there’s this utter shitshow – AMTF Digital (Ticker HKD). As we detailed earlier, this Hong Kong tech company IPO’d at $7.80 two weeks ago with around $25mm in revenues… today at its peak it traded with a market cap over $400 billion (on par with META!!)…

But hey Gary Gensler and his gang are busy worried about ‘speculation’ and ‘losses’ in crypto?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING// 

they spew nothing but garbage!

Hawkish FedSpeak Slams Stocks Into The Red

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 01:41 PM

Third time was the charm today for Fed speakers as first Mary Daly, then Charlie Evans and finally Loretta Mester stomped on the neck of the idea of Fed Pivot…

SF Fed’s Mary Daly jawboned the doves back by stating that The Fed is “nowhere near done” on fighting inflation, adding that “we have made a good start, and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to by this point,” but inflation is “far too high.”

“It really would be premature to unwind all of that and say the job is done,” she said. “I also think that we’ve been with this high inflation for a while, and really getting too confident that we’ve already solved the problem,” Daly said, adding that the Fed needs to “keep committed until we actually see it in the data.”  

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he is hopeful that reaching 3.5% by the end of the year is “still reasonable.”

“I think that there’s enough time to play out that 50 is a reasonable assessment, but 75 could also be okay” at the September meeting, he said. “I doubt that more would be called for” at that meeting, Evans added. But, Evans warned that “if we don’t see improvement before too long, we might have to rethink the path a little bit higher.”

Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester said she saw “no signs of a recession” offering no dovish pivot signal by noting that “we have to get inflation under control.”

To really drive the point home, Mester concluded that she “hasn’t seen anything suggesting inflation is leveling off.”

It wasn’t until Mester’s words that stocks paid attention, puking back all the “well, China didn’t invade” relief rally…

Notably Treasury yields…

…and rate-trajectory expectations were both soaring as stocks rose (and have continued to since stocks faded).

Is the exuberant short-squeeze over?

Notably, some desks are pointing an announcement from China’s CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltdwhich sent SOX tumbling…

The world’s biggest maker of batteries for electric vehiclesdecided to push back announcing a multibillion-dollar North American plant to supply Tesla Inc. and Ford Motor Co. due to tensions raised by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter.

end

ii) USA DATA//

Labor Market Cracks As Job Openings Suffer Third Biggest Plunge On Record

TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 10:31 AM

After months of stubbornly refusing to budge, and putting the Fed in an increasingly more awkward place, forcing the central bank to keep hiking even as the economy entered a technical recession, moments ago the BLS reported that the June JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnoover) finally cracked as the number of job openings, while still elevated at 10.698MM, plunged by a near record 605K in June, the 3rd biggest drop on record with only the covid crash seeing bigger drops, and badly missing the median consensus forecast of 11.0MM.

What is notable about this particular JOLTS print is that it comes in the same month as the jobs report – traditionally it is one month delayed. However, that will change in just 3 days when the BLS reports the July payrolls numbers which we are confident will also be a huge miss compared to consensus expectations of 250k.

Anyway, back to the report where the BLS adds that the largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).

It wasn’t just the deterioration in job openings: the number of hires in June also slumped by 133K to 6.374MM, the lowest since May 2021, and the 4th consecutive decline as the labor market is clearly slowing down.

The picture was slightly less exciting in terms of quits, which dipped by 37K to 4.237MM, the lowest since Oct 2021.

Bottom line: whereas until May, the JOLTS report continued to paint an almost uncomfortably strong picture of the US labor market, in June it finally cracked, with job openings plummeting at the 3rd fastest pace on record (with only the Covid crash months worse) and since the US is now in a technical recession, we expect that July and subsequent months will be far worse. We will get confirmation of this as soon as Friday when the BLS reports the July jobs report where consensus expects a 250K print but where the final outcome will be far worse. The only question then is what happens to wages and how much longer will the wage-price spiral continue now that Biden and Powell have officially pushed the economy into a recession.

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues

SWAMP STORIES

Sen. Johnson Expects ‘Deal’ To Conceal Indictment Of Hunter Biden

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said on July 31 that he expects there to be an agreement to conceal an indictment of Hunter Biden.Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, attends the ceremony for the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, during a ceremony honoring 17 recipients, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on July 7, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Johnson predicted in a Fox News interview that law enforcement “may indict Hunter Biden, but they’ll probably seal—they’ll do a deal—they’ll seal all the information.”

The American public will never get the full truth,” he said.

Both Johnson and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have been involved in a yearslong investigation into the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son in places such as China, Ukraine, and elsewhere. The pair released a report in September 2020 that detailed extensive financial connections between Chinese Communist Party-linked entities and individuals and Hunter Biden.

We’ve known that the Bidens are a corrupt family for years,” Johnson told Fox News’ Dan Bongino, noting that the “corrupt mainstream media has been covering it all up” and “even the FBI.”

Johnson also predicted that legacy news media outlets will now turn on Biden amid increasingly low poll numbers.

In March, both Republican senators presented bank records on the Senate floor showing CEFC China Energy, a now-defunct firm, made payments to Hunter Biden. That included a $100,000 wire payment to one of the younger Biden’s companies, Owasco, from CEFC.

Other payments include a wire transfer of $5 million to Hudson West, a company Hunter Biden invested in and managed, from Northern International Capital, a business that partnered with CEFC. A contract also made public by the senators shows that $500,000 went to Hunter Biden as a “one-time retainer fee.”Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) speaks during a hearing in Washington on Jan. 24, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Two others show a $1 million payment made to Hudson West by CEFC and a transfer of $1 million from Hudson West to Owasco, with the money appearing to go to Hunter Biden for the purposes of representing Patrick Ho, a Chinese businessman who has helped CEFC gain advantages through bribery.

FBI Interference

In a recent letter, Johnson further claimed that the FBI attempted to undermine their congressional investigation in mid-2020.

Amid recent “whistleblower revelations,” they “would strongly suggest that the FBI’s August 6, 2020 briefing was indeed a targeted effort to intentionally undermine a Congressional investigation,” he wrote in a letter (pdf) to top Department of Justice officials and members of other intelligence agencies.

“If these whistleblower allegations are accurate, how can your agency, Director Wray, be capable of investigating the president’s son?” Johnson wrote in his letter. “Unfortunately, the FBI can no longer be trusted to investigate Hunter Biden with integrity and the equal application of law.”

Read more here…

King report

China’s Manufacturing PM slipped to 49 in July from 50.2 in June.  50.3 was expected.  The Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.8 from 54.7; 53.9 was consensus.
 
The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in July from 51.7 in June.  51.5 was expected.
 
China’s economic wobbles worsen as factory, property woes mount
Also on Monday, a poll by China Index Academy, one of the country’s largest independent real estate research firms, showed property sales by floor area in 17 cities tracked by the company slumped 33.4% in July on-month versus a 88.9% post-lockdown jump in June, as buyers shunned a market increasingly filled with desperate sellers…
    Retail sales improved in June, up 3.1% on-year, after COVID lockdowns were lifted in some cities including Shanghai. The jobless rate also eased to 5.5% from 5.9% in May…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-july-factory-activity-grows-slower-pace-caixin-pmi-2022-08-01/
 
Japan’s July factory activity growth slows as output, new orders contract
The final Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 in July from the previous month’s 52.7 final.   That marked the slowest pace of growth since September last year, and was slightly lower than a 52.2 flash reading…
    “The headline PMI masked some worrying trends when looking at the underlying sub-indices, which add downside risks for the sector,” said Usamah Bhatti, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey.  New order inflows fell for the first time in 10 months, while production levels saw their first contraction since February, Bhatti added…  https://t.co/0mtLw872Kx
 
German Retails Sales sank 1.6% m/m and 9.8% y/y in June; +0.3% m/m and -8.3% y/y were expected.  May was revised to 1.2% from 0.6%.  This is the worst German Retail Sales reading since unification.
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1554068077985374209/photo/1
 
German SP Global Mfg PMI inched up to 49.3 in July from 49.2 in June.  49.2 was consensus.
 
The S&P Global July Final PMI for the euro zone dropped to 49.8 from June’s 52.1, falling below the 50, which signifies contraction, for the first time since June 2020.
 
PMI at lowest for two years as output and new orders fall in July
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “With the exception of pandemic lockdown periods, July saw US manufacturers report the toughest business
conditions since 2009. A growth spurt in the spring has quickly gone into reverse, with new orders for factory goods down for a second straight month in July, leading to the first drop in production for two years and sharply reduced employment growth.
    “The rising cost of living is the most commonly cited cause of lower sales, as well as the worsening economic outlook… https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/928c283195bd4965b659a11718f1a7ce
 
The July ISM Manufacturing index dipped to 52.8 from 53; 52 was expected.  Prices Paid plunged to 60 from 78.5; 74.3 was consensus.  New Orders fell to 48 from 49.2; 49 was consensus.  Employment jumped to 49.9 from 47.3; 48.2 was expected.
 
June Construction Spending sank to -1.1% m/m; +0.1% was consensus.
 
The Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
 
U.S. deploys ships and planes near Taiwan as Pelosi eyes visit (Reportedly Tuesday night)
Speaker begins Indo-Pacific tour from Singapore
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-deploys-ships-and-planes-near-Taiwan-as-Pelosi-eyes-visit
 
The FT: Nancy Pelosi to meet Taiwan’s president on Wednesday
Controversial visit by US House Speaker triggers concern about possible Chinese retaliation
   Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip… (Why would Pelosi do this risky stunt?) https://www.ft.com/content/a2a69c08-b327-4a4d-99ff-20f92a4437f3
 
@JackPosobiec: Pelosi and her family have been in bed with the CCP for years… Now she wants to exploit the Taiwanese people too for theater as she ends her career of corruption.  Why would the CCP shoot down Pelosi? They don’t get rid of their own assets…Pelosi family got caught doing a semiconductor pump and dump. That’s what this is all about. Don’t be fooled.
 
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, meet on Wednesday to decide on September output. Two of eight OPEC+ sources in a Reuters survey said that a modest increase for September would be discussed at the Aug. 3 meeting. The rest said output is likely to be held steady..https://t.co/waHa6NZvpc
 
U.S. emergency crude stockpile falls to lowest in 37 years
The U.S. emergency crude oil stockpile fell by 4.6 million barrels last week to its lowest level since May 1985, according to the Department of Energy on Monday…
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-emergency-crude-stockpile-falls-lowest-37-years-2022-08-01/
 
Energy commodities sank on Monday due to the walk back of Powell’s neutral rate miscue; the soft PMIs globally; and the OPEC+ soiree on Wednesday, though no material production change is expected.
 
ESUs traded moderately negative during Asian trading on Monday.  They obligatory rally for the European open appeared.  An A-B-C rally ended at 7:42 ET when ESUs hit unchanged.  They then tumbled, possibly on Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, hitting a daily low of 4097.00 just after the NYSE open.
 
Despite the negative economic data and Kashkari’s walk back of Powell’s misguided neutral rate remark, the usual suspects aggressively bought ESUs and stocks for the expected Monday and start of the month rallies.  Fangs led the rally (TSLA +5% at 9:51 ET), evidence the rally was largely the work of traders.
 
ESUs and stocks peaked at 10:51 ET with ESUs +50.25 from the daily low.  USUs hit +1.00 at the time; however, by 12:11 ET USUs fell to +11/32.  USUs hit a daily low of 142 29/32 at 8:42 ET but surged to the daily high of 145 even at the European close (11:30 ET).  ESUs, like USUs, retreated when the noon hour arrived.  The decline intensified at 13:16 ET. 
The decline halted near 13:55 ET when NSC’s John Kirby said, “I want to reaffirm that the speaker has not confirmed any travel plans, and it is for the speaker to do so, and her staff..Congress is a independent branch of government…the Speaker has a right to visit Taiwan.” https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1554168203613454336
 
@PhilipWegmann: We will not take the bait or engage in saber-rattling,” Kirby says ahead of Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan. “At the same time, we will not be intimidated.”
 
Kirby reiterated that the US does NOT support Taiwan independence. 
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1554166267527004160
 
The ESU and stock rally intensified as the afternoon progressed on trader buying for the expected surge near the NYSE close on start-of-August buying by various institutional investors.  The rally stalled at 15:15 ET.  After a modest spike higher at 15:50 ET, ESUs and stocks declined into the close.
 
Yes, Virginia, trading schemes, due to ingrained patterns and behavior, almost always override fundamental news and developments.
 
Individual Investors Ramp Up Bets on Tech Stocks – WSJ
‘In late July, purchases by individual investors of a basket of popular tech stocks hit the highest level since at least 2014. The basket includes Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet, Tesla and Microsoft.’ https://wsj.com/articles/individual-investors-ramp-up-bets-on-tech-stocks-11659221897
 
@CNBCClosingBell: “You’re starting to see real business investment literally collapse in capex,” says @Jkylebass. “I know the NBER hasn’t declared it a recession and the administration wants to redefine it, but when you have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth its pretty much a #recession.”
https://twitter.com/CNBCClosingBell/status/1554183082382688256
 
GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: One definition of “recession” when Republicans are in office, and another when Democrats are in office.  One standard of “justice” when Republicans are in office, and another when Democrats are in office. Notice the pattern?
 
GOP Rep. @RepMaryMiller: Why won’t Biden allow his doctor to brief the American people and answer questions? Why isn’t the “press” demanding it? You know why!
 
Iran vows to build nukes if provoked, turn NY into ‘hellish ruins’
https://nypost.com/2022/08/01/iran-vows-to-build-nukes-turn-new-york-into-hellish-ruins/
 
Positive aspects of previous session
ESUs and stocks rallied during early NYSE trading on trading schemes and patterns
Bonds rallied early in the US and in the afternoon
 
Negative aspects of previous session
ESUs and stocks declined on negative economic fundamentals and perhaps Pelosi’s Taiwan trip
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will China do if/when Trader Nan arrives in Taiwan?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4119.86
Previous session High/Low4144.95; 4096.02
 
COVID reinfection rate with treatment Biden is taking is more than 40% – and not 2% as marketed: Paxlovid is thought to suppress immune response meaning body can’t fight off new infection  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11065467/COVID-reinfection-rate-treatment-Biden-taking-40-not-2-marketed.html
 
Gee, another Pfizer Covid-related product is NOT working as advertised.  Are you surprised?
Doctors reportedly rushed to Putin’s bedside during health scare
The 69-year-old suffered from ‘severe nausea’ overnight Friday July 22 into Saturday with doctors rushed to his bedside for around three hours, General SVR channel said…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/doctors-reportedly-rushed-to-putin-s-bedside-during-health-scare/ss-AA109vjT
 
Limping Putin is unable to use his right arm to swat away mosquito at Russia’s Navy Day … https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11066431/Putins-health-fresh-scrutiny-footage-appears-use-limp-right-arm.html
 
‘I have never witnessed this degree of incivility:’ Duke Health executive describes recent uptick in violence against healthcare workers – The atmosphere in our society is trickling into hospitals, Albanese said. Pandemic stresses and lack of access to mental health care have exacerbated violence against healthcare workers…  https://www.wral.com/duke-health-violence-healthcare-workers/20396079/
 
Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s Thoughts on Governance
He is widely credited with employing the harsh policies that ended the high levels of inflation seen in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s.  Back then few people realized his brave and bold move would shape the economic system for decades…
    Paul Volcker was a firm believer in good governance and felt it is a key factor in keeping the nation healthy… He voiced concern over how it seems today that working in government has become a revolving door where people go into a job just long enough to make contacts they can exploit when they return to the private sector…  The financialization of America and globalization have made many of the comparisons with the past obsolete…
    In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on June 30, 2010, titled “Why Obamanomics Has Failed” Meltzer wrote about how uncertainty about future taxes and regulations was the biggest enemy facing future economic growth. Most economic watchers will agree that little has changed since then…
    Meltzer went on to say that most of the earlier spending was a very short-term response to long-term problems. Part of the money financed temporary tax cuts, and these seldom work because they ignore the role of expectations in the economy… https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2022/07/fed-chairman-paul-volckers-thoughts-on.html
 
@AmbLiuXiaoMing China govt official 20:09 ET: We are closely following the itinerary of Pelosi. A visit to Taiwan by her would constitute a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, wantonly trample on the one-China principle…
    It will greatly threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, severely undermine China-US relations and lead to a very serious situation and grave consequences.
 
Today – Despite the above noted negative economic data and developments, traders of various classes aggressively bought ESUs and stocks during NYSE trading for the Monday and start-of August rallies.
 
The upward seasonal biases for earnings reporting season, Monday, and start-of-the-month are finis.  If there are strong rallies into earnings season, they tend to reverse during the final week of reporting because Fang and related trading sardine results have been issued.
 
Two Fed presidents are scheduled to speak.  Will they walk back Powell’s neutral rate remark?
 
SPUs are -9.00 and USUs are +18/32 at 20:10 ET.
 
A slew of industrial companies report results.  Expected: DD .75, CAT 3.03, MPC 8.72, SEE .97, CMI 4.35, MAR 1.57, ETN 1.82, ITW 2.21, FMC 1.88, PRU 2.35, OXY 3.07, AIZ 3.10, PYPL .86, AMD 1.05
 
Expected economic data: June JOLTS Job Openings 11m; July Wards Total Vehicles 13.5m; Chicago Fed Pres Evans 10:00 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 13:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3926; 100-day MA: 4122; 150-day MA: 4251; 200-day MA: 4345
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,623; 100-day MA: 32,728; 150-day MA: 33,481; 200-day MA: 34,018
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3718.11 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3972.62 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4082.52 triggers a sell signal
 
AP: US weekend strike in Afghanistan killed top al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri.
The house Al-Zawahri was in when he was killed was owned by a top aide to senior Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani, according to a senior intelligence official. The official also added that a CIA ground team and aerial reconnaissance conducted after the drone strike confirmed al-Zawahri’s death….
https://apnews.com/article/ayman-al-zawahri-al-qaida-terrorism-biden-36e5f10256c9bc9972b252849eda91f2
 
In a brief Teleprompter reading, The Big Guy stressed NO civilian casualties occurred via the strike.
 
@karimi_shafi: A source in Kabul confirmed to me that the son and son-in-law of Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani were also killed in the US airstrike in Kabul. (1st anniversary of withdrawal)
 
CNN’s @Kevinliptakcnn: President Biden examined a scale model of Zawahiri’s safe house that was built by intelligence officials as he was weighing the operation to take him out. They brought it to the Situation Room for him to look at and question over the past several weeks
 
GOP Rep. @michaelgwaltz (Colonel, U.S. Army Green Beret): “It is notable that Zawahiri felt safe enough to return to Afghanistan after spending decades in hiding. This is also a stark reminder that Al Qaeda is continuing to plot further attacks again our country. The intelligence community has been clear that they fully intend to attack our homeland again. The threat of global terrorism has not gone away. We must remain vigilant against those who continue to wage war against our freedoms and country.”
https://waltz.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=636
 
“Give Up Your Yacht Before Lecturing”: Bolsonaro Sinks DiCaprio in Titanic Twitter Thread
Brazilian President Jair Bonsonaro gave Leonardo DiCaprio a lecture in hypocrisy, telling the virtue-signaling actor that he should ‘give up his yacht before lecturing the world’ about the environment…
https://t.co/cuajo2LqHx
 
Liz Cheney’s J6 attack on Trump undercut by her father’s own actions during 1992 LA riots
Presidents authorize Guard use but typically wait for requests from local officials, just like then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney did during 1992 Rodney King riots.
    In modern history, the Defense Department has interpreted its obligations under the Posse Comitatus Act passed in 1878 to mean that National Guard troops can’t be ordered into action for civil unrest in American localities unless they are requested by local authorities
    The practice is for a president to authorize his defense secretary to deploy troops in times of crisis upon receipt of a request and then let the Pentagon order deployment once that plea for help is made
    That’s what Trump did in the days before the Jan. 6 riot, and what President George H.W. Bush and then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney did during the violence that exploded in Los Angeles in the spring of 1992 after a jury acquitted police officers in the attack on Rodney King… Bush authorized but did not order their deployment, the 2018 analysis stated…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/hldliz-cheneys-attack-trump-undercut-her-fathers-own-actions-during-1992-la-riots
 
The Big Guy’s actions are so amusingly preposterous that the MSM is warning people that obvious parodies of Biden are fake! 
 
Video does not show Biden being distracted by music from an ice cream truck – Reuters
Social media users are sharing a video of U.S. President Joe Biden walking away momentarily during a speech given by U.S. First Lady Jill Biden and claiming that he was distracted by an ice cream truck. The video being shared, however, has been digitally edited to include music usually played by an ice cream truck…   https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-biden-icecream/fact-check-video-does-not-show-biden-being-distracted-by-music-from-an-ice-cream-truck-idUSL1N2ZC0CA
 
Biden-Ice Cream Truck parody: https://twitter.com/nelliec0rnp0p/status/1554103423972229120
 
Reuters says it’s very important you know this video of Joe Biden wandering away to find an ice cream truck is fake – Thank goodness the fact checkers were here to help us! We might have fallen into utter darkness if not for them!  Now we know that Joe Biden wasn’t chasing an ice cream truck – he was just wandering off in the middle of his wife’s very doctorly speech for no apparent reason. That’s much better!    https://notthebee.com/article/reuters-says-its-very-important-you-know-this-video-of-joe-biden-wandering-away-to-find-an-ice-cream-truck-is-fake
 
@AnnCoulter: Never forget: It was TRUMP who kept Anthony Fauci on board, it was TRUMP who shut down the entire country (thanks to a Fox News host [Carlson]), it was TRUMP who attacked governors for lifting the lockdowns too soon.
 
@realDailyWire: Kamala: “While we send our prayers, and our love, we also, with each day, renew our commitment to the urgency of now and the ability that we have collectively, all of us in it together, to do something about it.”  https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1554204681567703041

 

END

Greg Hunter: Interviewing 

See you on Thursday

I am taking a one day break

Harvey

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