AUGUST 16//GOLD FINISHED THE DAY OFF $7.85 TO $1775.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 22 CENTS TO $20.13//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN 65 CENTS TO $937.60//PALLADIUM CLOSED AT PAR ($2154.80)//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURY REPORT/VACCINE IMPACT//UK ELECTRICITY CONTINUES TO SKYROCKET//IN USA: HOUSING STARTS PLUMMET AS DOES PERMIT ISSUANCE/IN USA HOME COSTS ESCALATE DESPITE PLUMMETING LUMBER PRICES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

 Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1775.00 DOWN $7.85

SILVER: $20.13 DOWN 22 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1776.00

SILVER: $20.14

Bitcoin morning price:  $24,036 DOWN 34

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,992. DOWN 78

Platinum price closing DOWN $0.65 AT$937.60 

Palladium price; closing DOWN $0  at $2154.80

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,781.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/15/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/17/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 H GOLDMAN 2
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 3
132 C SG AMERICAS 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
661 C JP MORGAN 7
737 C ADVANTAGE 10
800 C MAREX SPEC 11 1
880 H CITIGROUP 2
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 22 22
MONTH TO DATE: 32,488

JPMorgan stopped:   7/22

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

22 NOTICES FOR 2200 OZ //0.0684 TONNES

total notices so far: 32,488 contracts for 3,248,800 oz (101.051 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

0 NOTICES FILED FOR 0 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  827 :  for 4,135,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.22 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.152 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 486.219 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A STRONG SIZED 1287  CONTRACTS TO 146,719.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.38 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.38) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS/  WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 928 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -92

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total 6550  contracts:  32.750 million oz  OR 2.729 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (545 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.75 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 31.43 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1287 WITH OUR  $0.38 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 264 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1023 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.115 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 0  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  0 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 3277 CONTRACTS  TO 455,656 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:+ 172   CONTRACTS.

.

THE GOOD SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $16.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1300 OZ//NEW STANDING 103.437 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $16.45 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1565  OI CONTRACTS 4.867 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1712  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 455,656

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1565 CONTRACTS  WITH 3277 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1712 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1737 CONTRACTS OR 5.402 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1712) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3277): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1565 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1300 oz.    3) SOME/ LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

27,918 CONTRACTS OR 2,791,800 OZ OR 86.83  TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2326 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 86.83 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  86.83/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 86.83 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1287 CONTRACT OI TO 146,719 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 264 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 264  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 264 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1287  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 264 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1023   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.115 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.38

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.80 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 210.34 OR 1.05%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 2.87 OR % 0.01.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.50%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7882//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8088//    /Oil UP TO 90.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.39//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3277 CONTRACTS TO 455,656 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $16.45  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1712 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1712 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1712 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1712 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1565  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1712 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3449  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 16.45.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (103.437),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:103.437 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $16.45) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 4.867 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (103.437 TONNES)

WE HAD +172  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1565 CONTRACTS OR 156,500  OZ OR 4.867 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 90,858///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  145,199/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 16

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz265,494.458  oz

Brinks
HSBC 2,000 kilobars
JPMorgan





Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today22   notice(s)
2200 OZ
10.4199 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)767 contracts 
76700 oz
2.385 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month32,488 notices
3,248,800 OZ
101.051 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) out of HSBC  96,453.000  oz  2, 000 kilobars

ii) Out of JPM: 167,435.688 oz 

iii) Out of Brinks: 1605.77 oz

total:  265,494.458 oz

total in tonnes: 8.25 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //2

JPMorgan 5594.274 oz

Manfra:  98.244 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 789 contracts having LOST  428 contracts .

We had 441 notices served upon yesterday so we gained a STRONG 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August. 

.As promised, from this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.

Sept. GAINED 32 contracts to 3659 contracts.

October GAINED 416 contracts UP to 39,183 

We had 22 notice(s) filed today for 2200 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 22 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (32,488) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 789 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 22 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,325,500 OZ  OR 103.437 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (32,488) x 100 oz+   (789)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (22} x 100 oz} which equals 3,325,500 oz standing OR 103.437 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  103.437 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,318,414,091 oz   72.11 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,735,439.539 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,506,013.757  OZ (451,18 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,229,425.782 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,911,011.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 370.48 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 16

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,124,981.813 oz
CNT
Brinks
JPMorgan
 



Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,198,870.480 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)
nil  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)129 contracts 
(645,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)827 contracts
 4,135,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2  deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  600,786.780 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 598,083.720 oz 

total deposit:  1198,870.480 oz   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 173.929 million oz/333.029 million =52.22% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) out of CNT  162,886,343 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 267,546.976 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 594,548.500 oz

total: 1,124,981.813   oz

 adjustments:  1 dealer to customer

Manfra  227,008.421  oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.027 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.029 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 129 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 12 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 2975 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 63,047

OCTOBER GAINED  9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 106

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for  NIL oz

Comex volumes:49,365// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 63,763 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 827 x 5,000 oz = 4,135,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(129) and the number of notices served upon today 0  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 827 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (129)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,780,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 995.97 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 486.219 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

END 

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

This is good!

Russia Proposes New Standard To Compete With RIGGED London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)

Capitalist Exploits's Photo

BY CAPITALIST EXPLOITS

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 7:50

A NEW FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

I’ve just finished a report on this (if you are a Capitalist Exploits subscriber then it will be in your hands shortly), but I’ll touch on this here.

Russia proposes a new international standard for trading in precious metals: the Moscow World Standard (MWS) which will become an alternative to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) which systematically manipulates precious metals markets to depress prices. According to Russia’s Finance Ministry, this new, independent international structure is necessary for “normalizing the functioning of the precious metals sector” and its creation is “critically important.”

“The basis of this new structure will be a new, specialized international precious metals brokerage headquartered in Moscow, which will rely on the MWS. Also proposed is a committee for fixing precious metals prices composed of central banks and largest banks of countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) that currently have a presence on the precious metals market.

According to the Russian Finance Ministry, precious metals prices will be fixed either in the national currencies of key member-countries or using new monetary units used in international trade—for instance, the new BRICS currency proposed by Putin.

The Finance Ministry wants to make membership in this organization attractive to all market participants, especially China, India, Venezuela, Peru and other South American countries, as well as Africa. It aims to swiftly destroy the monopoly of LBMA and to provide for stable development of the precious metals sector.

In essence, Russia proposes to create a market for gold, platinum, etc., which will be regulated by countries that control the resources for these metals. This would be, simply put, a revolution. On the basis of this new market, it intends to further the system of bilateral trade in national currencies that specifically excludes dollars, euros and pounds.

And now, some statistics on the world gold supply. The production share of the US and other hostile nations* produce a grand total of 22% of the world’s gold. Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS and Africa, together, produce 57%—already a controlling share. Now add Peru and Venezuela, and the number goes up to 62%.

To put it in the plainest terms possible, Russia is colluding with a number of other countries to exclude the dollar, the euro and the pound from the system of international settlements, starting with precious metals but not necessarily stopping there. These countries control a lion’s share of gold production. For starters, Russia has fixed the price of gold in rubles at 5000₽/g, which works out to $2,447.17 per troy ounce. This compares rather favorably to the current LBMA fix of $1737.84. The days of LBMA’s ability to drive down gold prices using paper gold manipulation appear be running out.

What now?

Capital controls, that’s what. The smart money will flee to this. How long do we have?

I don’t know, but what’s that old saying from Willy Waggledagger?

Willy Waggledagger makes a great point!

Despite having a mullet, Willy has a very good point.

The proposed currency system is going to be backed by commodities, and the BRICs cannot be a system that is under the control of the LME. Remember when we wrote about the fiasco of the cancellation of $4bn of nickel trades and how the LME did so to bail out the CCP?

Good ol’ Cliffy was livid, but you know what. Even though he’s a titan in the industry, he couldn’t swing any changes.

Hedge fund titan Clifford Asness leads trader fury after LME cancels $4bn in nickel trades

Cancelling the trades helped Tsingshan Holding Group. The China-based stainless steel producer is estimated to have lost $8bn on its short position. Because the LME cancelled trades, Tsingshan losses are potentially less severe than if the trades had stood. The holding group’s chair, Xiang Guangda, is reportedly still holding short positions on nickel.

Now if Cliff couldn’t swing changes… and he’s a billionaire, then what hope do we have?

Anyway, the point is that when the LME did that they destroyed their credibility and trust. The only question in my mind was, at the time, what replaces it and where. Well, I think we now have the answer.

Remember, the UN/NATO Western crowd are championing “you’ll own nothing and be happy.”

If you can’t own precious metals then what is the point of backing a currency with them?

The answer is none.

Which allows me to conclude that the BRICs are not going to sanction the ownership of precious metals.

The West? Hmm, well I can certainly see the teleprompter telling sleepy Joe that by owning precious metals you’re “funding Putin’s war” or some hogwash like that.

Like I said, I’ve put more thought into this particular topic and more and you’ll be able to read all about it when it hits your inbox soon.

Cheers,

Chris MacIntosh – Capitalist exploits and Glenorchy Capital Macro Fund Manager

P.S. – Let me send you a very valuable (also free) weekly email that the team and I call Our World This Week (OWTW).

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5.OTHER COMMODITIES: USA/COTTON

Cotton prices soar due to the drought in Texas.  A massive crop estimate cut by the uSDA

“Worst I’ve Ever Seen”: Cotton Prices Soar After Historic USDA Cut Amid Megadrought

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 06:55 AM

US cotton prices continued to surge above the boom days of 2010-11 after a massive crop estimate cut by the USDA, shocking Wall Street analysts and traders, due primarily to a megadrought scorching farmland of Texas, according to Bloomberg

Futures in New York for December delivery were up 4.5% to $1.1359 a pound and up more than 21% this month. 

I don’t think you can put a top on prices right now,” Louis Barbera, the managing partner for VLM Commodities, told Bloomberg. 

“I have been going to Texas for more than ten years, and this is by far the absolute worst I have ever seen, said Barbera.  

What Barbera is referring to is the drought situation in Texas. The long stretches of triple-digit temperatures and limited rainfall this summer have turned vast amounts of farmland to dust, hurting cotton farmers in the South Plains of West Texas. 

Last Friday, the USDA’s bigger-than-expected cut to domestic cotton crop stunned many on Wall Street. Crop output plunged to 12.57 million bales, the lowest in a decade. The cut also pushed down the US from the world’s third-largest producer to the world’s fourth. 

Barbera said the western Texas region (around Lubbock and Lamesa), the epicenter of America’s cotton-growing belt, has “literally nothing” in fields that are just desert sand. He said fields that had drip irrigation were harvestable, but ones that weren’t weren’t salvageable. 

“If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the US could support prices globally, said Jon Devine, supply-chain economist for research Cotton Inc.

“The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months. The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility,” Devine continued. 

Supporting prices are bullish bets by money managers turning positive for the first time since June as prices rally.

Louis Rose, director at Rose Commodity Group, said the USDA’s cut to US output is “shocking” and comes at a time of the highest consumer inflation in decades. 

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7882

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8088

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 210.34 PTS OR  1.05%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 2.87 OR 0.01%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  106.82/Euro FALLS TO 1.0127

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.165/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.46/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +0.923%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.06% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.05%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.23//

3j Gold at $1775.85 silver at: 20.11  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 4/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.27

3m oil into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and  95 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.46DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9502– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9623well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.806  UP 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.098  UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.96

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Reverse Early Losses As Walmart Beat Sparks Relief Buying

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 08:20 AM

US stock futures drifted modestly lower after hitting a 4-month high just above 4,300 during Monday’s session, boosted by solid earnings and a guidance boost from Walmart, as attention turned back to lingering worries about the path of economic growth, how long until the NBER admits the US is in a recession and how Fed policy ties the room together. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were down less than 0.1% by 7:45 a.m. ET. 

Gains in technology stocks on Monday spurred the broader benchmark equity index to its highest since May, with investors shrugging off terrible Chinese economic data. Crude oil reversed some of its recent sharp losses amid economic headwinds that clouded the demand outlook and prospects for an increase in supply. The greenback settled higher after fluctuating between gains and losses, while bitcoin traded above $24K. Chinese stocks listed in the US declined in premarket trading after a Reuters report that Tencent would liquidate its $24BN stake in Meituan to appease Beijing, sparking concerns it would do the same to its other investments.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Snowflake fell 3.5% after Tiger Global Management cut its position in the software firm for the first time in eight quarters, according to latest 13F filings. Chinese stocks listed in New York fell in premarket trading following the Tencent report. Pinduoduo Inc. lost 4%, while JD.com Inc. declined 2.2%. Zoom Video Communications slid 3% after Citigroup Inc. downgraded its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral, seeing “new hurdles to sustaining growth.”  Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Big-box retailers gain in premarket trading after Walmart said it sees a full-year adjusted EPS decline of 9% to 11% — less steep than its previous projection for a decline of 11% to 13% — following a stronger-than-expected earnings report for the second quarter.
  • Zoom VideoCommunications (ZM US) down 3% in pre-market trading as Citi cuts its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral, saying it sees “new hurdles to sustaining growth,” including growing competition from services like Microsoft Teams and macro-related pressures hitting customers.
  • Bird Global (BRDS US) shares drop 6.4% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle company on Aug. 15 posted second-quarter results that showed a wider net loss than the same period a year earlier.
  • Chinese stocks in US fall in premarket trading following a report that Tencent plans to sell all or much of its stake in food delivery company Meituan, in an effort to appease Beijing and lock in profits.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) -2.2%, Nio (NIO US) -1%, Baidu (BIDU US) -1.8%
  • Compass (COMP US) analysts at Barclays and Morgan Stanley cut their price targets on the real estate brokerage after it reduced its full-year guidance and announced plans to cut costs. The shares plunged 12% in US postmarket trading on Monday.
  • Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA US) shares jump as much as 23% in US premarket trading after the cell programming platform operator’s revenue for the second quarter beat estimates.
  • Snowflake (SNOW US) drops 3.5% in premarket trading after Tiger Global Management cut its position in the software firm for the first time in eight quarters, according to latest 13F filings.

“The lack of clear direction is driving the markets up and down,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “Yesterday’s data softens the case for the continuation of the steep recovery, and throws the foundation of a period of consolidation, and perhaps a downside correction.”

A sharp drop in New York state manufacturing, the second-worst reading since 2001, along with the longest streak of declines since 2007 in homebuilder sentiment, sparked another round of “bad news is good news” and boosted hopes that the Fed may slow interest-rate hikes. However, it was soon outweighed by fears of a recession and belief among some traders the Fed could still press ahead with its tightening irrespective of a slowdown. 

US stocks have been rallying since mid-June on optimism that corporate earnings are holding up even with higher prices and weakening consumer sentiment. The market also has gotten a boost from speculation that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate increases after cooler-than-expected inflation data. While some strategists, especially those at JPMorgan, suggest the rebound could extend until the end of the year as investors turn less bearish, others including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley have said disappointing earnings are likely to spark another selloff in stocks.

As a result of the recent frenzied positional rally, four weeks of gains have pushed more than 90% of S&P 500 members above their 50-day moving averages. That’s been a good omen in the past, with stocks showing gains of 5.7% on average in the following three months and rising 18% in the 12 months after the signal. Negative returns have been a rare exception, with stocks falling only twice. “While this is not a necessary condition for the end of the bear market, it would increase our confidence that a rally back to the old highs will come before a return to the June lows,” Jeff Buchbinder, a strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Monday.

On the other hand, Skylar Montgomery Koning, senior global macro strategist at TS Lombard, said the bar for the Fed to stop its hiking cycle was high. “The market is betting not only that inflation comes down to a level that the Fed is comfortable with, but that the Fed reaction is timely,” she said on Bloomberg Television. “It may take until we get a 75-basis point hike in September or the new set of dot projections, and that may have to be what makes the market narrative shift.”

  • European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, the Euro Stoxx 50 rising +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW. IBEX outperforms, adding 1.1%. Miners, telecoms and utilities are the strongest performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
  • Delivery Hero shares jump as much as 14% after the firm projected 7% q/q growth in gross merchandise value in 3Q, in- line with expectations and putting the firm on track to meet its FY targets
  • Glencore and other European miners outperform the broader market after BHP posted its highest ever FY profit and said it will push ahead with growth options
  • Philips rises as much as 3.6% after its CEO Frans van Houten said he would step down in October, with the current head of the company’s Connected Care division, Roy Jakobs, taking over
  • Watches of Switzerland jumps as much as 7.1%, reaching the highest since June 7, after the watchmaker published a first-quarter trading update. Analysts found the update to be solid
  • Jyske Bank gains as much as 9.1% after the Danish lender reported 2Q pretax profit that topped Citigroup’s estimate by more than 20%, with Citi noting provisions came in well above expectations
  • DFDS climbs as much as 8.7% after the Danish logistics company published 2Q results that beat consensus estimates and boosted its FY22 revenue forecast, RBC writes in a note
  • Pandora drops as much as 8%, the most in more than three months, after the jewelery maker reported Ebit before significant items that missed the average analyst estimate
  • Sonova and other European hearing aid makers lead losses on the Stoxx 600 after the firm and Danish peer Demant cut their guidance, with analysts flagging negative consensus revisions
  • Straumann plunges as much as 14%, the most intraday since May 2020, after the oral care company announced 1H results and reaffirmed its guidance for the year
  • Hemnet falls as much as 16% after the Swedish property ad company offered 8 million shares at SEK147 a share in a secondary offering announced on Monday after markets closed
  • Hargreaves Lansdown declines as much as 1.8% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from outperform due to the personal investment firm’s valuation

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell as investors weighed growth risks in the region against the probability of a slower pace of US interest-rate increases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, and is poised to snap a four-day winning streak. Hong Kong shares fell the most, with Meituan among the biggest drags on the regional gauge after Reuters reported that Tencent intends to sell all or much of its $24 billion stake in the food-delivery giant to appease Beijing. Across Asia, energy shares slid as oil prices fell on rapidly cooling US manufacturing that followed weaker-than-expected Chinese data Monday — offsetting gains in materials and utilities shares. After improving sentiment pushed up the region’s stocks for four straight weeks, markets are looking ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due Wednesday for hints on its rate-hike trajectory. Closer to home, China’s surprise interest-rate cut on Monday did little to allay concerns over the property sector and the broader slowdown from Covid restrictions. Economists and state media are calling for additional stimulus, which could aid a rally in Chinese stocks and Asian peers.

“While the downside surprises across the economic calendar suggested that growth conditions have clearly worsened, market participants seem willing to ride on optimism” that the Fed may shift to a looser policy stance sooner with easing inflation, Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia said in a note. Japan’s benchmarks dropped while gauges in the Philippines, Malaysia and India rose. Indonesian shares were higher after President Joko Widodo said in his annual budget speech that he aims to narrow next year’s deficit to below 3% of gross domestic product for the first time since 2019.

Japanese stocks edged lower as investors remained on the lookout for signs of an economic slowdown in the US and China. The Topix Index fell 0.2% to 1,981.96 at the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was virtually unchanged at 28,868.91. SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 2.6% after Elliot Management sold off almost all of its position in the company. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 908 rose and 1,138 fell, while 124 were unchanged. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,105.40, its highest level since June 8. BHP, the largest-weighted stock in the benchmark, was among the top performers Tuesday after its full-year profit exceeded analysts’ expectations. Challenger slumped after announcing a strategic review of Challenger Bank. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,847.15.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a third day as the greenback was steady to higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro touched an almost two-week low of $1.0125 after German ZEW expecations index came in lower than forecast. Aussie recovered a loss after the Reserve Bank’s August minutes failed to bolster bearish views, only to resume its slide in the European session. Australia’s central bank signaled further interest-rate increases would come in the period ahead, while restating it will be guided by incoming economic data and the inflation outlook. The yen was steady in the Asian session only to slip in the European session. China’s onshore yuan fell to the lowest since May, tracking Monday’s losses in the offshore unit. The nation’s central bank didn’t push back strongly against the currency weakness through its daily reference rate on Tuesday but traders are watching if its stance would change in case the yuan selloff deepens. USD/CNY rose as much as 0.3% to 6.7978, the highest since May 16; USD/CNH falls 0.1% to 6.8113 after surging 1.2% on Monday

In rates, Treasuries were mixed, pivoting around a near unchanged 10-year sector with the curve flatter as long-end outperforms. Bunds and gilts underperform with the latter following stronger-than-forecast UK wage figures for June. US yields cheaper by up to 2bp across front-end and richer by 1.5bp in long-end of the curve — 2s10s, 5s30s spreads subsequently flatter by 1.7bp and 2.7bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.79% and near unchanged, outperforming both bunds and gilts by over 1bp. 

European bonds fall, with the yield on German 10-year up about 2bps, while gilts 10-year yield rises ~3bps following stronger-than-forecast UK wage figures for June. . Both are trading within Monday’s range. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy and Spain widen, Portugal tightens. Italian 10-year yield rises ~7bps to 3.04%. Australian and New Zealand bonds extended opening gains amid concerns over economic growth. Japanese government bonds rallied as a smooth five-year auction and concerns over global economic slowdown encouraged buying.

In commodities, WTI traded within Monday’s range when crude futures fell around 5% over the previous two sessions. Besides economic worries, investors are also facing the prospect of rising supply as demand moderates. Libya is pumping more and Iran is edging closer to reviving a nuclear deal that will likely see higher crude flows. On Tuesday, oil reversed recent losses however, and rose more than 1% to over $90 as the prospect of an “imminent” Iranian deal once again faded; Iran responded to the EU’s draft nuclear deal and expects a response in the next two days, according to a source cited by ISNA. It was also reported that an adviser to the Iranian negotiating delegation told Al-Jazeera they are not far from an agreement and chances of reaching a nuclear deal are very high. Iran’s response to the draft EU JCPOA text will probably fail to satisfy Western parties, particularly the US, according to Iran International; Iran wants further provisions around economic guarantees above the one-year exemption reportedly being offered. Elsewhere, spot gold falls roughly $4 to around $1,775/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 1% while LME zinc gains 1.9%.

Looking to the day ahead, data releases from the US include July’s industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits. In the UK, there’s unemployment for June, Germany has the ZEW survey for August and Canada has July’s CPI. Elsewhere, we’ll get earnings releases from Walmart and Home Depot.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,295.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 443.91
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 163.03
  • MXAPJ little changed at 529.75
  • Nikkei little changed at 28,868.91
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,981.96
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 19,830.52
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,277.89
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 59,751.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,105.39
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,533.52
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0140
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,774.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 106.74

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Tencent-Backed Giants Dive on Report of $24 Billion Meituan Sale
  • Oil Extends Losses on Global Slowdown and Chance of More Supply
  • Babylon Said to Mull Take-Private Not Long After SPAC Deal
  • Chipmakers’ Pandemic Boom Turns to Bust as Recession Looms
  • Apple Lays Off Recruiters as Part of Its Slowdown in Hiring
  • FAA Warns of Monday Evening Delays at NYC Area Airports
  • Wong Says Singapore Must Compromise Over Law on Sex Between Men
  • ‘Broken’ Barclays ETN Soars to 33% Premium With Issuance Halted
  • Trump Executive Weisselberg in Plea Talks to Resolve Tax Case
  • US Congress Pushes Biden Toward Risky Confrontation With China
  • Twitter Must Give Musk Data, Documents From Ex-Product Head
  • Next Singapore PM Warns US, China May ‘Sleepwalk Into Conflict’
  • Apple Sets Return-to-Office Deadline of Sept. 5 After Delays
  • Tiger Global, Yale Cut Stocks Last Quarter as Markets Tumbled
  • Druckenmiller Sold Big Tech in Bear Market as Soros Dove Back In
  • A Century of Fed Crises Holds Secrets to Fight Future Recession
  • Compass Stock Slumps as CEO Reffkin Plots Out More Cost Cuts

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street but with upside limited as economic slowdown concerns lingered. ASX 200 traded higher amid a deluge of earnings and with the index led by the mining sector including BHP shares after the industry giant reported a record FY underlying net and dividend. Nikkei 225 lacked direction amid the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and alongside a choppy currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially kept afloat by support-related optimism with developers encouraged after reports that China is considering issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers, while PBoC-backed press noted that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth. However, the Hang Seng later pulled back ahead of the European open to slip below 20k.

Top Asian News

  • China’s NDRC said macro policies should be strong, reasonable and moderate in expanding demand actively, while it will roll out practical measures to support starting up businesses and job employment, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC-backed Financial News front page report stated that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth, while Securities Times suggested the recent surprise PBoC rate cut could be the first in a series of measures to stabilise growth.
  • China is to consider issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers.
  • RBA Minutes from the August 2nd meeting stated the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in the months ahead, but is not on a pre-set path and seeks to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel. The minutes also reiterated that members agreed it was appropriate to continue the process of normalising monetary conditions and that inflation was expected to peak later in 2022 and then decline back to the top of the 2%-3% range by the end of 2024.
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics will begin publishing a monthly CPI indicator with the first publication on October 26th to coincide with the release of the quarterly CPI data, while it added that quarterly CPI will continue to be the key measure of inflation.
  • China is reportedly to enhance policy to increase new births, will boost housing support for those with additional children, via Bloomberg.

European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW. US futures are in contained ranges and pivoting the unchanged mark at this point in time, ES -0.2%; HD and WMT in focus. Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 5.05 (exp. 4.94), Revenue 43.79 (exp. 43.36bln); confirms FY22 guidance.

Top European News

  • Delivery Hero Sees Path to 2023 Profit Powered by Asia Unit
  • Pandora Sells Lab-Grown Diamonds in US as Mined Ones Dropped
  • UK Real Wages are Falling at Their Fastest Pace on Record: Chart
  • Hearing Aid Makers Plunge After Sonova, Demant Cut Guidance
  • DFDS Gains on Guidance Upgrade; RBC Sees Future Growth Potential
  • Turkey Limits Resales of Newly Bought Cars by Dealers

FX

  • DXY breaches last week’s peak as Treasury yields rebound and Yuan weakens further amidst Chinese growth concerns, index up to 106.860 vs 106.810 on August 8, USD/CNY and USD/CNH approach 6.8000 and 6.8200 respectively.
  • Euro stumbles after unexpected deterioration in German ZEW economic sentiment and Pound slips following mixed UK jobs and wage data, EUR/USD down to 1.0125 and Cable low 1.2000 area.
  • Yen and Franc retreat as risk sentiment improves and bonds back off, USD/JPY tops 134.00 and USD/CHF above 0.9500.
  • Kiwi cautious ahead of RBNZ, but Aussie holds up better post-RBA minutes flagging more hikes, NZD/USD eyes bids into 0.6300 and AUD/USD hovers just under 0.7000.
  • Loonie underpinned awaiting Canadian CPI as crude prices stabilise to a degree, USD/CAD straddles 1.2900.

Fixed Income

  • Debt futures retreat further from Monday’s lofty levels in corrective price action and as broad risk sentiment improves.
  • Bunds down to 156.07 having been closer to 157.00, Gilts to 116.52 vs 116.99 earlier and 117+ yesterday, T-notes to 119-19 from almost 120-00.
  • UK 2029 and German 2027 supply snapped up amidst given some yield concession.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks pressure, but off worst levels and well within yesterday’s ranges, as the EU receives Iran’s response to the JCPOA draft.
  • Initial indications are that a deal is in reach, though, caveats/unknowns remain in focus – particularly the US’ response.
  • EIA said US oil output from top shale regions in September is due to increase to the highest since March 2020, according to Reuters.
  • Iran sets September Iranian light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 9.50/bbl, via Reuters.
  • Major European zinc smelter (Nyrstar Budel) reportedly to shut due to elevated energy costs, via Bloomberg; will shut as of September 1st.
  • Spot gold under modest pressure as the USD lifts, but still near the 50-DMA while base metals recoup from Monday’s data-driven pressure.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: July Housing Starts, est. 1.53m, prior 1.56m
    • July Housing Starts MoM, est. -2.0%, prior -2.0%
    • July Building Permits, est. 1.64m, prior 1.69m, revised 1.7m
    • July Building Permits MoM, est. -3.3%, prior -0.6%, revised 0.1%
  • 09:15: July Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%
    • July Capacity Utilization, est. 80.2%, prior 80.0%
    • July Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Here in the UK we’ve had quite a historic weather spell recently. Last month was the driest July in England since 1935, and a new record temperature just above 40°C was also recorded. But as this dry spell finally comes to an end, there are now weather warnings about thunderstorms over the coming days. My wife and I discovered this to our cost on our evening walk yesterday, when we hadn’t packed an umbrella and got soaked. One thing I hadn’t realised until watching the news the other day was that healthy grass actually absorbs water much quicker than parched grass – I had assumed like humans that the grass that’s been without water for days would drink it up rapidly. So while I’m not paid to give you my bad hunches on how weather works, the risk now is that the water just runs off the hard ground and leads to flooding. Let’s hope we can catch a break from this in the days ahead.

Markets were also struggling to catch a break yesterday thanks to a succession of disappointing data releases that brought the risks of a recession back into focus. That marks a shift in the dominant narrative over the last couple of weeks, when there had actually been a small but growing hope that central banks might be able to execute a soft landing, not least after the much stronger-than-expected US jobs report for July. But ultimately, a number of leading indicators are still moving in the wrong direction, and yesterday’s releases served as a reminder that hard landings have historically been the norm when starting from a position as unfavourable as the present one.

In terms of the specifics of those data releases, the more negative tone was set from the outset by the Chinese data we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which showed that retail sales and industrial production for July had been weaker than expected by the consensus. But we then also got the Empire State manufacturing survey for August, which plunged to -31.3 (vs. 5.0 expected), thus also marking its worst performance since the GFC apart from April and May 2020 during the Covid lockdowns. Lastly, we then had the NAHB’s housing market index for August, which similarly fell to its lowest level since May 2020 at 49 (vs. 54 expected). That marked its 8th consecutive move lower, which comes against the backdrop of one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in decades, with housing one of the most sensitive sectors to rate hikes.

Growing fears of a slowdown led to a decent risk-off move across multiple asset classes, but one of the places that was most evident was in oil prices, where both Brent crude (-3.11%) and WTI (-2.91%) underwent sizeable declines on the day. In fact on an intraday basis, Brent crude traded at $92.78 per barrel at its lows, which exactly matches its previous intraday low on August 5, and prior to that you’ve got to go back before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February for the last time that oil prices were trading lower. That decline in oil prices was offered further support by the latest developments on the Iran nuclear deal, where Iran sent its response to the European Union’s proposed text to revive the deal. While the specific contents of the response are unknown, it’s been reported by the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency that Iran expects a response back from the EU within the next two days, so there could be tangible progress this week. Furthermore, Iran’s foreign minister said that an agreement with the US could be reached in the coming days. That trend towards weaker oil prices has continued this morning as well, with Brent crude down a further -0.87% at $94.27/bbl, and WTI down -0.62% at $88.86/bbl.

Whilst oil prices fell back yesterday, the seemingly inexorable move higher in European natural gas continued, with futures up +6.79% on the day to €220 per megawatt-hour, which is just shy of their March peak at €227. Prices have been bolstered by the latest European heatwave, which has seen rivers dry up and caused issues with fuel transportation, further compounding the continent’s existing woes on the energy side. That gloomy backdrop saw Germany’s government announce a levy of an extra 2.419 euro cents per kilowatt hour for natural gas, which comes as policymakers are hoping that measures to reduce demand will help the continent get through the winter. Meanwhile, German and French power prices for next year rose to fresh records yesterday, rising +3.67% and +3.24% respectively.

In light of the decline in oil prices and the more general risk-off tone, sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, and yields on 10yr Treasuries came down -4.3bps to 2.79%. Inflation breakevens led the bulk of that decline amidst the moves lower in commodity prices, with the 10yr breakeven down by -2.9bps, whilst the 2s10s curve (+2.1bps) remained firmly in inversion territory at -40.0bps, even as it underwent a modest steepening. For Europe there were even larger declines in yields yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-8.8bps), OATs (-8.1bps) and BTPs (-6.5bps) all moving lower on the day, which came as investors moved to price in a less aggressive ECB hiking cycle over the coming months, with the June 2023 implied rate down by -9.9bps on the day. In overnight trading, yields on 10yr USTs (-0.9bps) have posted a further decline to 2.78% as we write.

One asset class that didn’t fit this pattern so well were equities yesterday, as they pared back their earlier losses to move higher on the day, building on a run of 4 consecutive weekly moves higher. In the US, the S&P had opened -0.54% lower, but reversed course to end the session up +0.40%, which brings its advances from its recent low in mid-June to more than +17% now. It was a fairly broad-based advance across sectors, and the NASDAQ posted a similar +0.62% gain as well, whilst in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.34%) also strengthened in the afternoon to post a 4th consecutive daily advance.

Those moves in US and European equities have been echoed in Asia this morning, with the Hang Seng (+0.12%), Shanghai Composite (+0.24%), CSI (+0.13%) and the Kospi (+0.31%) all edging higher in early trade. The main exception is the Nikkei (-0.08%), which has lost ground modestly after reaching a 7-month high in the previous session. That said, there are signs that equities may be losing momentum as well this morning, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.12%) both pointing lower following their strong run of gains recently.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include July’s industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits. In the UK, there’s unemployment for June, Germany has the ZEW survey for August and Canada has July’s CPI. Elsewhere, we’ll get earnings releases from Walmart and Home Depot.

(zerohedge)

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Equities firmer though curtailed post-ZEW, crude under pressure on JCPOA – Newsquawk US Market Open

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TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 06:47 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW.
  • US futures are in contained ranges and pivoting the unchanged mark at this point in time, ES -0.2%; HD and WMT in focus.
  • DXY has breached last week’s peak to the detriment of peers across the board, with EUR downside exacerbating this amid data.
  • Core fixed benchmarks have seen a pullback from Monday’s best levels while UK and German supply was well received.
  • Crude benchmarks pressure, but off worst levels and well within yesterday’s ranges, as the EU receives Iran’s response to the JCPOA draft.
  • Looking ahead, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Industrial Production. Earnings from Walmart.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Industrial Production. Earnings from Walmart.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • China’s Taiwan Affairs Office sanctioned seven Taiwanese officials for supporting Taiwan independence, according to state mediaTaiwan’s Foreign Ministry later stated regarding China’s sanctions and stated that they cannot accept threats, while President Tsai separately commented that peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait are critical to the stability of the global supply chain of high-tech products, according to Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian diplomat said it is too dangerous for the IAEA mission to go through Kyiv to visit the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station and that the IAEA mission cannot deal with the demilitarisation of the plant, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Defence Ministry says that Sweden and Finland joining NATO will mean that the nation reviews its defence approaches, via Reuters.

IRAN

  • Iran responded to the EU’s draft nuclear deal and expects a response in the next two days, according to a source cited by ISNA. It was also reported that an adviser to the Iranian negotiating delegation told Al-Jazeera they are not far from an agreement and chances of reaching a nuclear deal are very high.
  • Iran’s response to the draft EU JCPOA text will probably fail to satisfy Western parties, particularly the US, according to Iran International; Iran wants further provisions around economic guarantees above the one-year exemption reportedly being offered. Adding that Iran has reportedly accepted the safeguarding proposal.
  • EU says it consulting with the US on a way ahead for the Iranian nuclear deal.
  • Senior Iranian official says Iran’s response to the European proposal is realistic and professional and includes important observations to secure its interests, according to Al Jazeera.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW.
  • US futures are in contained ranges and pivoting the unchanged mark at this point in time, ES -0.2%; HD and WMT in focus.
  • Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 5.05 (exp. 4.94), Revenue 43.79 (exp. 43.36bln); confirms FY22 guidance.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY breaches last week’s peak as Treasury yields rebound and Yuan weakens further amidst Chinese growth concerns, index up to 106.860 vs 106.810 on August 8, USD/CNY and USD/CNH approach 6.8000 and 6.8200 respectively.
  • Euro stumbles after unexpected deterioration in German ZEW economic sentiment and Pound slips following mixed UK jobs and wage data, EUR/USD down to 1.0125 and Cable low 1.2000 area.
  • Yen and Franc retreat as risk sentiment improves and bonds back off, USD/JPY tops 134.00 and USD/CHF above 0.9500.
  • Kiwi cautious ahead of RBNZ, but Aussie holds up better post-RBA minutes flagging more hikes, NZD/USD eyes bids into 0.6300 and AUD/USD hovers just under 0.7000.
  • Loonie underpinned awaiting Canadian CPI as crude prices stabilise to a degree, USD/CAD straddles 1.2900.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt futures retreat further from Monday’s lofty levels in corrective price action and as broad risk sentiment improves.
  • Bunds down to 156.07 having been closer to 157.00, Gilts to 116.52 vs 116.99 earlier and 117+ yesterday, T-notes to 119-19 from almost 120-00.
  • UK 2029 and German 2027 supply snapped up amidst given some yield concession.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks pressure, but off worst levels and well within yesterday’s ranges, as the EU receives Iran’s response to the JCPOA draft.
  • Initial indications are that a deal is in reach, though, caveats/unknowns remain in focus – particularly the US’ response.
  • EIA said US oil output from top shale regions in September is due to increase to the highest since March 2020, according to Reuters.
  • Iran sets September Iranian light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 9.50/bbl, via Reuters.
  • Major European zinc smelter (Nyrstar Budel) reportedly to shut due to elevated energy costs, via Bloomberg; will shut as of September 1st.
  • Spot gold under modest pressure as the USD lifts, but still near the 50-DMA while base metals recoup from Monday’s data-driven pressure.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Czech central banker Frait says the current level of rates at 7% already creates restrictive monetary conditions.
  • NBP’s Wnorowski says rates could peak between 6-7%.

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jun) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%); Claimant Count Unemployment Change (Jul) -10.5k (Prev. -20.0k)
  • Average Week Earnings 3M YY (Jun) 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 6.2%); (Ex-Bonus) (Jun) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) -55.3 vs. Exp. -53.8 (Prev. -53.8); Current Conditions (Aug) -47.6 vs. Exp. -48.0 (Prev. -45.8)
  • Looks for a further decline in the already weak economic growth in Germany. Still high inflation ad expected additional costs for heating and energy lead to a decrease in profit expectations for the private consumption sector. Expectations for the financial sector are improving due to the supposed further increases in short-term interest rates.
  • EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Aug) -54.9 (Prev. -51.1)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden’s administration is making hundreds of thousands more vaccine doses available to support the Monkeypox response in which the HHS noted up to 442k doses will be available for states and jurisdictions to order under accelerated phase 3 of the National Vaccination Strategy, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street but with upside limited as economic slowdown concerns lingered.
  • ASX 200 traded higher amid a deluge of earnings and with the index led by the mining sector including BHP shares after the industry giant reported a record FY underlying net and dividend.
  • Nikkei 225 lacked direction amid the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and alongside a choppy currency.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially kept afloat by support-related optimism with developers encouraged after reports that China is considering issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers, while PBoC-backed press noted that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth. However, the Hang Seng later pulled back ahead of the European open to slip below 20k.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China’s NDRC said macro policies should be strong, reasonable and moderate in expanding demand actively, while it will roll out practical measures to support starting up businesses and job employment, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC-backed Financial News front page report stated that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth, while Securities Times suggested the recent surprise PBoC rate cut could be the first in a series of measures to stabilise growth.
  • China is to consider issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers.
  • RBA Minutes from the August 2nd meeting stated the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in the months ahead, but is not on a pre-set path and seeks to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel. The minutes also reiterated that members agreed it was appropriate to continue the process of normalising monetary conditions and that inflation was expected to peak later in 2022 and then decline back to the top of the 2%-3% range by the end of 2024.
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics will begin publishing a monthly CPI indicator with the first publication on October 26th to coincide with the release of the quarterly CPI data, while it added that quarterly CPI will continue to be the key measure of inflation.
  • China is reportedly to enhance policy to increase new births, will boost housing support for those with additional children, via Bloomberg.

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.80 PTS OR 0.05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 210.34 OR 1.05%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 2.87 OR % 0.01.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.50%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7882//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8088//    /Oil UP TO 90.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.39//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA//

CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

UK

Average electricity costs will soar to $5,370 per year by next year

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

UK Average Electricity Cost Will Soar To $5,370 Per Year By 2023

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Net Zero by 2050

Outgoing UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed for a net zero carbon policy by 2050.

Let’s discuss the costs.

Please consider Britain’s Net Zero Lesson for the U.S.

Households are likely to see the average bill for electricity and natural gas climb to £4,400 ($5,370) a year in the first half of 2023, according to a report this week from Cornwall Insight, a consulting firm. This is after the regulatory price cap shot up 54% to about £2,000 in April with another 40%-plus increase due in October and further increases after that.

Britain’s median income after direct taxes is £31,400. Skyrocketing fuel prices could push 10.5 million households, or one-third, into fuel poverty next year, says the End Fuel Poverty Coalition. Fuel poverty is when energy costs drag household disposable income below the government’s official poverty line.

That doesn’t include the energy costs households pay indirectly. Businesses, whose prices aren’t capped, have seen electricity costs rise in the past year between 45% and 122% depending on company size, and gas prices between 131% and 185%. 

Average Cost of Electricity per kWh in the UK 2022

Also note the rising cost of Electricity per kWh in the UK 2022

According to official figures, the average electricity bill in the UK was around £764 per year for 2021, but it will be significantly higher in 2022—possibly 2.6X higher.

Due to the energy price cap rising on 1 April 2022, households on default tariffs paying by direct debit are seeing an increase from £1,277 to £1,971 per year for both gas and electric (an increase of around £693 or 54%). And projections for October are now anticipating a further 82% rise.

By the end of 2022 we could see costs of 51 p/kWh for electricity and over 13 p/kWh for gas, assuming an 82% rise in October.

Pounds to Dollars Math

£764 * 2.6 * $1.2/£ = $2,384 for 2022. Cornwall estimates will double again in 2023.

If we go with Cornwall’s estimates, the average household makes £31,400 but will spend £4,400 on electricity in 2023.

If accurate, that’s 14% of the entire after tax budget just for electricity. 

Britons will have to choose between heat and eat.

Scotland Cut Down 14 Million Trees For Wind Turbines

In other news, Scotland Cut Down 14 Million Trees For Wind Turbines

The tree removal seems especially ironic given that world leaders supposedly agreed to end deforestation by 2030 at the recent COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland.

“‘The figure for trees felled for windfarm development on Scotland’s forests and land, as managed by FLS, over the past 20 years is 13.9 million. However, it should be noted that these trees – being a commercial crop – will have eventually have been felled and passed into the timber supply chain in any case.’”

Yet once wind turbine instillations are placed on the site where the trees once were, the trees can no longer be regrown there as part of a sustainable timber supply chain.

Not to worry. 

None of these things can possibly happen in the US because of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

*  *  *

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

END

GERMANY//

still  going to remove nuclear power plants

(zerohedge)

Germany Denies WSJ Report Of Climate-Change Flip-Flop Over Nuclear Plants

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 12:20 PM

Update: Following the WSJ report that indicated Germany plans to postpone the closure of its last three nuclear power plants, the German spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action said the media report about extending the life of nuclear plants “lacks any factual basis.” 

* * * 

Germany has been mulling over the idea of extending the life of its nuclear power plant fleet for months as the ‘wait and see’ approach of Russia actually increasing Nord Stream 1’s NatGas capacity to normal levels ahead of winter is a dangerous one. 

As German power prices surged above 500 euros per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG for the first time as the energy crisis worsened, WSJ reported Tuesday that the largest economy in Europe would “postpone” the closure of its last three nuclear power plants.

Three senior government officials told WSJ that the decision to extend the life of its nuclear power plants has yet to be formally adopted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cabinet and will still need a parliamentary vote. 

A formal decision could be made at the end of the month or early next month. Falling Russian NatGas supplies are the driver in extending the life of the nuclear power plants slated for closure on Dec. 31. 

“The reactors are safe until Dec. 31, and obviously they will remain safe also after Dec. 31,” a senior official said.

The three plants were approximately 6% of Germany’s power production in 2Q22, and at this point, the energy-stricken country can use all the various types of power generation it can get its hands on before winter.  

Germany widely depends on NatGas-fired power plants and has reactivated mothballed coal-fired power plants to increase power generation due to shortfalls in NatGas supplies. 

The move to extend the life span of nuclear power plants and reactivate coal-fired power plants shows Germany has some short-term crisis management tools. However, they might not be enough to thwart an economic crisis as energy hyperinflation decimates households and businesses well before winter begins. Just look at power prices today… 

Germany has three months to save itself from a winter energy crisis.

EUROPE//DROUGHTS

A new threat is hitting Europe: drought!!

(zerohedge)

Europe’s Nuclear & Hydropower Falter With Droughts

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 05:45 AM

As Europe looks to secure alternative energy sources to Russian gas in light of the war in UkraineStatista’s Anna Fleck warnsa new threat to energy security is stirring, this time from droughts.

The droughts hitting Europe are impacting everything from food to transportation to the environment.

In Italy, the River Po has fallen two meters below its normal levels, seeing rice paddy fields dry out. Meanwhile, Germany’s River Rhine has become so shallow that cargo vessels can’t pass through it fully loaded, pushing up shipping costs, and France’s Tille River, in the Burgundy region, is now a dried up bed covered in thousands of dead fish.

But Europe’s energy production has also been impacted. As Statista’s chart below shows, hydroelectric power has fallen some 20 percent since 2021. This partly comes down to the fact reservoirs have been drying up in countries such as Italy, Serbia, Montenegro and Norway. The latter, according to Bloomberg, usually a major hydroproducer, is even taking the steps to reduce exports in order to prioritize refilling its reservoir’s low water levels so the country can maintain domestic production.

Infographic: Europe’s Nuclear & Hydropower Falter With Droughts | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Nuclear power too has fallen since 2021. One reason for this is that France has had to shut down several of its nuclear power plants because the rivers Rhone and the Garonne have been too warm to be able to cool down its reactors. France is 70 percent dependent on nuclear energy and is a key exporter of electricity, usually supplying Italy, Germany and the UK. It’s important to note here however, that other problems are troubling France’s nuclear fleet too. A significant number of the country’s power plants have had to be powered down recently due to malfunctions and maintenance issues, which had been delayed because of the pandemic. These combined reasons mean, according to Wired, that the country’s hydropower output is down nearly 50 percent.

END

Re: Escobar: The Second Coming Of The Heartland | ZeroHedge

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:24 AM (46 minutes ago)
to

This is reality. Europe is in free fall. By next spring painful realities will be known by all. It is interesting to watch how Western Europeans have come to make Russians evil ones( orcs) as they are called. This will not serve them well and will serve to break up the EU. Look at Hungary who is charting a a separate path for itself and will become a new enlightened manufacturing base in Europe for China as Hungary is quickly becoming a preferred touch point of development. This will come forth at the expense of Germany. Even the local Ukrainians have started to figure out that the Brits are actively directing Ukrainian efforts far more than Americans. This is clearly evident in writings now appearing by various bloggers on the state of affairs there. Russia will be made to pay for it’s posture founded or not. Even France has sent banned land mines to the Ukraine to use against Russians which in of itself is very telling as to where Relationships are headed. And In America, Ukraine is nothing  burger of interest other than the profiteering from the 70% of arms shipments being sold off. The American public has no interest in what goes on there. 

If this was a conflict for the “heartland” in monetary control, Britain has lost. As it will not be allowed to pursue hegemony as intended. The clearest indication was the destruction of all British naval installations on day 1 of the conflict in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Hegemony will be defended and confronted by both China and Russia with a growing cast of actors from India to North Korea who see this as the new economic frontier they can participate in without British or American involvement and limitations. Instead there will be a new settlement mechanism for new trade not controlled by neither America or Britain. And both parties maybe actively excluded from trade, over the Ukrainian and Taiwanese messes. This tilt of activity will act to strengthen both China and Russia and in particular Russia who has capital surpluses and ample capital not debt based finance to pursue influence. And we have yet to see if China settles it’s internal troubles by exporting a real estate default externally damaging foreign investors.  Both Britain and America are left to pursue various alternative efforts to participate, assuming leadership is future found. As the current crowd is beyond help nor capable nor recognized as contributory as creditability is lost. 

In time, the Ukrainian fiasco will end and whatever remains of it will act as a buffer between Russia and Western Europe against future incursions of monetary interests. And the social and economic mess Europe has yet to confront and one that will take at least a decade to work through and sort out. 
Early indications already suggest the West will face major hurdles going forward in influence in this developing block of trade which is a tizzy global effort to a re-alignment of activity that is occurring. Without participation forward growth will have to come by reinventing economies and trade relationships and with new technologies as paradigms change. Because without such strategic moves economies will steadily decline lowering standards of living. 

Sadly, a lack of leadership and capital comes a a difficult time to confront such challenges. 



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/escobar-second-coming-heartland

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

First Grain Ship To Depart Ukraine Is Offloading In Russia’s Ally Syria

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 10:10 AM

Starting in late July and early August, the Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni became the first grain vessel to leave a Ukrainian port since the Russian invasion began in February, and was laden with 26,000 tonnes of corn. 

It never made it to its original listed destination of Lebanon. Instead, on Tuesday The Associated Press has revealed in a bit of an ironic twist: “The first shipment of grain to leave Ukraine under a wartime deal appears to have ended up in Syria — even as Damascus remains a close ally of Moscow, satellite images analyzed Tuesday by The Associated Press show.”

Within a week after the Razoni’s successful navigation of the Black Sea through a UN-administered ‘safety corridor’ overseen from a joint operations room in Istanbul, the vessel was left without a buyer, as the initial Lebanese purchaser refused delivery, explaining it was due to the five-month delay.

Both Ukraine’s government and the United States had hailed the Razoni’s departure as demonstrating the success of an agreed upon Ukraine-Russia-Turkey and UN mechanism to ensure that grain exports can resume despite the ongoing war and dangerous, mined Black Sea waters.

The US Embassy in Beirut had even posted a photograph of the grain vessel’s departure. Following this a senior Turkish official told Reuters that “The plan is for a ship to leave…every day.” And the official described of operations at three Ukrainian ports covered under the UN deal, “If nothing goes wrong, exports will be made via one ship a day for a while.”

But now perhaps something did go “wrong” from the perspective of the West, as the AP underscores of the latest development, “But its arrival in Syria’s port of Tartus shows how complicated and murky international trade and shipping can be. Syria has already received Ukrainian grain taken from Russian-occupied territory amid Moscow’s war on Kyiv.”

Satellite images posted by Planet Labs PBC appear to show the vessel at Tartus by Monday morning, next to the port’s grain silos. What’s more is that the vessel’s operators appear cognizant of the international sanctions currently in place on Syria and the Assad government, given the following

Data from the Razoni’s Automatic Identification System tracker shows it had been turned off since Friday, when it was just off the coast of Cyprus, according to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic.com. Ships are supposed to keep their AIS trackers on, but vessels wanting to hide their movements often turn theirs off. Those heading to Syrian ports routinely do so.

It’s as yet uncertain whether the Razoni had its ultimate destination set for Syria from the start. It also remains uncertain whether Russia had any involvement in designating Tartus as the offload point, though certainly this will raise suspicions in the West that it’s part of Kremlin efforts to siphon off Ukraine’s wheat exports.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Dr Paul Alexander..

Open in browser

Oster et al.: “Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in US From December 2020 to August 2021”; researchers found that in the US, the risk of myocarditis…

…after receiving mRNA-based COVID-19 injections was increased across multiple age and sex strata and was highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males and young men.

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 15

SOURCE:

Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021

“Males comprised 82% of the myocarditis cases for whom sex was reported. The crude reporting rates for cases of myocarditis within 7 days after COVID-19 vaccination exceeded the expected rates of myocarditis across multiple age and sex strata. The rates of myocarditis were highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males aged 12 to 15 years (70.7 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), in adolescent males aged 16 to 17 years (105.9 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), and in young men aged 18 to 24 years (52.4 and 56.3 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine, respectively). There were 826 cases of myocarditis among those younger than 30 years of age who had detailed clinical information available; of these cases, 792 of 809 (98%) had elevated troponin levels, 569 of 794 (72%) had abnormal electrocardiogram results, and 223 of 312 (72%) had abnormal cardiac magnetic resonance imaging results. Approximately 96% of persons (784/813) were hospitalized”

END

Kennedy: ‘Good Morning CHD’ Episode 102: New CDC Guidelines — Why Now? With Dr. Paul Alexander; I talk to Stephanie Locricchio on the new efforts by CDC to walk back it’s wrongful COVID guidance

Children’s Health Defense (CHD) COVID vaccines CDC guidance

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 15

SOURCE:

CHD interview Video Source

END

Alexander Amalgamated Red Pill News (AARPN) August 16 th 2022 (noon release)

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 16

Web-site:

drpaulalexander.com

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe now

PRIORITY 1 NEWS (breaking, urgent must knows):

1)Top lawmakers seek intelligence assessment of documents from Mar-a-Lago

2)John McEnroe: CDC Barring Tennis Star Novak Djokovic from Playing in U.S. Is ‘B.S.’

3)Exclusive Photos: 700 Migrants Cross in Five Hours at Texas Border Town

4)Taiwanese Officials Trounce Pelosi After Son’s Huge Holdings In China Tech Exposed

5)Former FBI Assistant Director Says ‘Handful In Leadership’ Are Politicizing Bureau, Following Mar-a-Lago Raid

6)China Shocks With Rate Cut as Data Show ‘Alarming’ Slowdown

7) Shanghai Covid: Ikea shoppers flee attempt to lock down store

8)Kissinger says U.S. is heading aimlessly toward brink of war against Russia and China

9)Trump’s passports seized?

10)Ron Johnson: ‘I Don’t Believe Anything that Joe Biden Tells Me’

11)Quadruple Vaxxed Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Catches Covid One Year After Claiming His Vaccine Was 100% Effective in Preventing Covid

12)‘Viper’ Merrick Garland’s Trump FBI Raid Is Only the ‘First Inning’

13)DOJ opposes making details public in Mar-a-Lago search warrant’s probable cause affidavit

14)First lady Jill Biden tests positive for COVID-19

15)Even a limited nuclear war could kill a third of world’s population, study shows

16)REPORT: Minneapolis Will Fire ‘White Teachers’ First

17)Khan’s London: Fatal Broad Daylight Knife Attack Follows Weekend of Stabbings and Shop Looting

18)This is the pronoun crap we need to listen to, this garbage

19)You Don’t Have to Be a Spy to Violate the Espionage Act

PRIORITY 2 NEWS (important to be aware of):

1)Marshall Islands: Covid-19 cases surge

2)Watch: Good Samaritan Tackles Suspect Who Allegedly Assaulted, Robbed Elderly Man in Hollywood

3)Italy Elections: Salvini Party MP Hospitalised After Migrant Threw Rock at Car on Motorway

4)Brave new world: The first 100 days of Liz Truss’ Britain, Britain’s new PM

5)The Big Lie Failed: Just 12% of Americans Think the Inflation Reduction Act Will Reduce Inflation

6)82 NYC Teachers Accused of Using Bogus Vaccination Cards Have Been Ordered Back on Payroll

7)Prosecutors Struggle to Catch Up to a Tidal Wave of Pandemic Fraud

8)Beyonce’s “Above it All” Attitude Leads to Disastrous Sales for “Renaissance,” Down 74% in 3rd Week

PRIORITY 3 NEWS:

1)Rand Paul Moves to Pull Rug Out from Under DOJ, Leave Them with Nothing Usable from Mar-a-Lago Raid

Vaccine Impact

Medical Professionals who Refuse to Participate with Hospitals Killing Patients Start Providing Alternative Health Services Through Private Membership Associations

August 15, 2022 4:48 pm

With millions of medical professionals in the United States that have either been fired for not complying to medical mandates such as COVID-19 vaccines, or have been fired for exposing corruption in hospitals that have been literally murdering people with COVID protocols the past couple of years, or who have just simply quit because they could no longer in good conscience participate in a system that is killing people, are starting a new medical paradigm: Private member medical associations. These kinds of private member medical associations are not new, of course, and many have existed prior to the COVID-19 Scam, but they have a common goal: eliminate the insurance companies who decide who gets to be treated and who does not, and eliminate the federal government with their massive public funding for only “approved” therapies. Sadly, the American public has been brainwashed for decades now into believing that one cannot survive without health insurance, or the government-funded and supported medical system. But I can testify to the fact that it is possible, as I have not paid for health insurance for myself and my family for over 30 years, and we are all still alive, and none of us are bankrupt due to medical bills. I learned early on in my life to NOT trust in doctors and hospitals for my health, but to trust in God, and God has honored my faith in him for over 30 years now since I stopped paying for health insurance. Much of my writing the past decade and a half has been exposing how evil and corrupt the medical system is, and how it is idolatry to trust in it for your health. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that this model of providing healthcare services through private membership agreements without insurance companies and government funding is now taking off with the millions of medical professionals who have left the corrupt hospital systems since COVID-19 started.

Read More…

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end 

VACCINE INJURY/

official UK g0vernm3nt reports show compelling information

Inbox

12:42 PM (6 minutes ago)to bcc: meThere are a lot of charts in this article, but the most revealing one – irrefutable – is the Number of recorded athlete deaths in different time periods – near the bottom of the report – just above the ‘Closing Arguments’ section…
Even if you aren’t a technical / analytical person, it is pretty hard to disagree with the overall conclusion of this report…
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pfizergate-official-government-reports-prove-hundreds-thousands-people-dying-every-single-week-due-covid-19-vaccination/5790262

end

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every with today’s major stories

Michael Every…

“Has The Empire Struck Back? If So, There Is Still Little New Hope…”

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 09:40 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Empire Strikes Back

Just when the market was starting to resign itself to the deeply uncomfortable reality that central banks are serious about hiking rates further, rather than pivoting to bail out stocks, along came a flurry of data to change their minds again.

First we saw Chinese data, which stank across the board. Everything was weaker than the weakness already expected, from investment to industrial production to retail sales; and yet supply still grew faster than final demand – showing why China keeps producing huge export surpluses (i.e., these are a sign of weakness, not strength, but some analysts are unable to do simple maths, it seems). On top of that, youth unemployment remained firmly around the 20% level, which is what you expect from a struggling Eurozone periphery economy and not China – although it has the fiscal deficit and government debt to match, which the same analysts as above keep failing to notice too.

The data were so bad, in fact, that we also got a surprising 10bps rate cut from the PBOC taking the medium-term loan rate down to 2.75%. Of course, this is utterly irrelevant economically and financially, just as any further mooted 25bps cut in banks’ Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) would be. Neither step does anything to address the real problems of too much supply and too much debt. Lower bond yields only encourage both. If they could help reverse that trend, all the cuts and RRR reductions so far would have produced faster, not slower growth. (As the same set of analysts keep failing to understand, as they salivate each time such policies are rolled out.)

Then we got the US Empire PMI. To be fair, this is usually a third-tier data release. However, the staggering fall that it saw –a collapse from 11.1 to -31.3 vs. a consensus of 5– was first tier stuff. Especially when the NAHB housing index also dropped from 55 to 49, with 19% of builders saying they are now reducing prices, and 69% that higher mortgage rates are crimping demand.

In short, the risks of a global recession are suddenly much clearer. Then again, they were *always* clear to some. And does anyone think that a central-bank pivot will make them less likely at this stage? (Apart from the analysts above.)

For once, however, commodities markets broadly supported a potential pivot in that oil prices also collapsed by around 4.5% on the day. Regular readers will know that I have kept saying that central banks could only start to consider a policy U-turn once yields AND commodities fell back together, rather than the former falling supporting the latter rising. Has the Empire struck back?

If so, there is still little New Hopewelcome to a global recession with soaring unemployment and biting deflation… that our unhappy, inflation-ravaged societies will welcome like a hole in the head. (While the same happy-clappy gang think equities can find some kind of support in that environment.) It won’t be Return of the Jedi as much as Revenge of the Sith-ed.

It does need pointing out that the move in energy prices was also driven to some degree by rumors that the Iran nuclear deal may be back on again after endless rounds of talks – and Iranian nuclear advances on the ground. Tehran says it has sent its response to the US and EU, and is now waiting for their reply. Let’s see if rumors of a deal to remove the IRGC from terrorist watchlists, and/or to guarantee that no future US administration can reverse on this deal(!) fly or not.

Many in the US and EU think that both sides saying ‘yes’ will open the door to lower energy prices, doves, olive branches, and peace, love, and harmony. I can’t say exactly what the correlation is with the analysts who don’t understand Chinese data or how central banks work, but I suspect it is high.

end

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Nuclear deal with Iran very unlikely

(Watkins/OilPrice.comP)

Nuclear Deal Increasingly Unlikely As Iran Strengthens Ties With Russia

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By Simon Watkins of OilPrice.com

There are several reasons to be short crude oil currently – economic recession in the U.S. and looming recessions in Europeongoing lockdowns in China, the vested interest of the U.S. in keeping oil below US$75 per barrel of Brent, to name but three – but the prospect of an imminent new ‘nuclear deal’ between the West and Iran is not one of them.

It is true that the European Union (EU) last week tabled a ‘final text’ of a new iteration of the nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – to Washington and Tehran. However, it is equally true, as conveyed at length and exclusively to OilPrice.com last week by several senior political and oil industry sources close to proceedings, that there is virtually no chance of such a deal being done without a massive concession coming from Iran that it is impossible to see the current regime making.

“Nothing has changed in the past few months from when the U.S. decided that Iran was just trying to buy time for its nuclear weapons development program by continuing to submit new clauses to the text of the new version of the JCPOA agreement,” a senior energy source who worked closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry, told OilPrice.com.

“And Washington has told everyone else in the P5+1 group [the U.S., the U.K., France, China, and Russia ‘plus’ Germany] that it will not budge from its position on the IRGC, which is aimed – as Iran knows – at destroying the IRGC’s influence, and by extension Iran’s influence – in the world,” he said.

“As far as the U.S. is concerned, everything is now focused on ensuring that Iran does not get the three months it needs to finish the guidance systems it requires, with the help of Russia, to deliver weapons-grade nuclear material in the missiles it already has,” he added.

A cementing of the U.S. view that “we are not going to change a single word or add a single comma in the current draft [of the new version of the JCPOA] on the table” – as a senior European Union energy source told OilPrice.com last week – came on 9 August with the launch of Iran’s ‘Khayyam’ satellite, built almost entirely by Russia and powered into orbit from the Russia-controlled Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. According to Iran, the satellite will be “used to monitor Iran’s borders and improve the country’s capabilities in management and planning in the fields of agriculture, natural resources, environment, mining, and natural disasters.” According to the U.S., the satellite is to be used for spying on its neighbors. Neither statement is entirely true, although the U.S. did hint at how serious it is when a State Department spokesman said last week of the Khayyam launch: “Russia deepening an alliance with Iran is something that the whole world should look at and see as a profound threat.”

What the Khayyam satellite was launched for is to provide the final piece of the missile guidance systems that Russia and Iran have been working on for years – this one relating to improving the accuracy of missiles (by up to 25 percent for short- and medium-range missiles and by up to 70 percent for long-range missiles) according to the Iranian source. During those past few years, Iran has sent several very small (50 kilograms or less) satellites of its own making into orbit, although none of them had the relative operational sophistication of the Russian-made Khayyam satellite (which weighs over half a tonne) launched last week. Prior to the launch of the Khayyam, there were five failed launches in a row for the ‘Simorgh’ program, which involved the same type of array as the Khayyam – a rocket launched that also carries a satellite (Khayyam was launched using a Russian Soyuz-2.1b rocket booster). Attempts by Iran to lunch more larger and more operationally sophisticated satellites – like Khayyam – have previously met with ‘unexplained’ setbacks, including most notably in recent times a massive fire at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in February 2019 that also killed three key Iranian figures in its ‘satellite’ program. 

This latest advance by Iran in its quest to be able to deliver a fully functioning nuclear warhead to anywhere within a few-thousand-mile radius should come as no surprise, given that the same sponsor for North Korea’s nuclear program – China – is the key state sponsor of Iran, as analyzed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. After the landmark 25-year deal was struck in August 2019 between Iran and China – a story exclusively broken by me in September 2019, nearly two years before it was officially announced or reported on by anyone else – China (and Russia) gradually and quietly began to increase their cooperation on key elements of Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. In China’s case, the level of intermediation between middle-men connected to it and to North Korea and Iran was stepped up using a triangular system of technology supplies (from China to North Korea via middlemen, and then from North Korea to Iran), and payment principally in oil (from Iran to North Korea, with some also sent from Iran to China directly). Russia had agreed to take a back seat to China in Iran’s nuclear weapons program in the year or two after the 25-year China-Iran deal had actually been made (in August 2019), but shifted back to a front seat position from September 2021 (when it began to activate its plan to invade Ukraine), as China remains wary of overtly challenging the U.S. outside its own perceived area of influence in the Taiwan Strait.

Iran and Russia still need “two to three months to finalise its overall missile guidance system,” according to the sources spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, although it already has a vast array of missiles already in place with varying range applications. This leaves the nuclear material itself for the warheads as the third element it needs to line up before it rates as a clear and present nuclear threat. According to the 30 May 2022 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): “Due to the growth of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium stocks, Iran has crossed a dangerous new threshold: its breakout timeline is now at zero. It has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, or highly enriched uranium [HEU] in the form of uranium hexafluoride [UF6] to be assured it could fashion directly a nuclear explosive. If Iran wanted to further enrich its 60 percent HEU up to 90 percent HEU, typically called weapon-grade uranium [WGU], used in Iran’s known nuclear weapons designs, it could do so within weeks utilizing only a few advanced centrifuge cascades.”

Given this, it could be argued that bringing Iran back into the fold of global diplomatic relations by agreeing to a new iteration of the nuclear deal might be the way forward. However, for Washington, it appears that an inflection point has been reached in the Oval Office over the JCPOA in which, as OilPrice.com has been told: “We are not going to change a single word or add a single comma in the current draft [of the new version of the JCPOA] on the table.” The only thing that the U.S. will now accept from Iran is – in essence – the neutering of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which it is seeking to do via Iran signing up to the regulations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and then to becoming a fully-regulated and constantly-monitored FATF member. 

With its 40 active criteria and mechanisms in place to prevent money laundering (an activity that is vital to the IRGC’s activities across the world) and nine criteria and mechanisms in place to do the same for the financing of terrorism and related activities (a core of the IRGC’s role in promoting Iran’s brand of Islam around the globe), the FATF has swingeing powers to wield against individuals, companies, or countries who transgress any of its standards and is extremely aggressive in using them by degrees, depending on whether the sanctioned entity is on its ‘grey’ or ‘black’ list. A sure sign of the U.S. has reached the end of the line regarding Iran is that – as of now – even if Iran does sign up to the FATF, Washington will not remove the designation of the IRGC as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisation’ (FTO) immediately, as it had promised a while ago, but will keep the damaging designation in place for at least two years, whereupon it will be reviewed, a senior source close to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com exclusively last week. “This review,” he concluded, “will also assess whether all Iranian military and intelligence elements of influence have been removed from several countries, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, or Iran fails the review anyway.”

end

Putin’s plot to choke energy supplies foiled as China announces HUGE discovery of oil – HRITC News

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:58 PM (16 minutes ago)
to

The game can change for Russia
https://hritc.info/news/putins-plot-to-choke-energy-supplies-foiled-as-china-announces-huge-discovery-of-oil/

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0127 DOWN  0.0034 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 134.46   UP 1.321 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2020 DOWN   0.0036

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.80 POINTS OR .05%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 210.34 PTS OR 1.05% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.50%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 210.34 PTS OR  1.05% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.80 PTS  OR .05% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.50% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2.87 OR 0.01%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1776.65

silver:$20.11

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 106.82  UP 38  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.98% UP 8  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.172% DOWN 0    AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.09%// UP 9   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.15  UP 17   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.9715% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0172  UP  .0016   or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.29 UP 1.141  OR YEN DOWN 114  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2099  UP  0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0045 OR 45 BASIS pts  to 1.2875

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7882  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8022

TURKISH LIRA:  17.96  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.174

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.837% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.127 UP 3  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.35 DOWN 8 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 33.23 PTS OR  0.44%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 93.93 POINTS OR 0.68%

Paris CAC CLOSED  UP 28.08PTS OR 0.43% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 83.100 OR 0.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 27.42 PTS OR  0.12%

WTI Oil price 88.25  12: EST

Brent Oil:  93.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.68  UP 0  AND 54/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.9715

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0164 DOWN .0000     OR  0 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2088 UP .0032  or  32 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.22  UP 1.084//YEN DOWN 108 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2847 DOWN 0.0058 (CDN dollarUP 58   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.28

Brent OIL:  92.03

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.817 UP 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.101  UP 0  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.93

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.90  UP 0 AND   32/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 239.57 PTS OR 0.71 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 31.97 PTS OR 0.23%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.67 DOWN 0.28 PTS (0.18)%

GLD: $165,42 DOWN $0.29 OR 0.18%

SLV/ $18.57 DOWN 11 CENTS OR 0.59%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Massive Meme Meltup Sparks Marketwide Squeeze, Until Hartnett Says “Sell”

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 04:07 PM

It was setting up to be a quiet day, with futures drifting lower from their 4,300+ highs hit on Monday, when this morning Walmart’s blowout results (at least relatively to sharply lower expectations) and guidance hike sent the stock of the retailer soaring…

… lifting all heavily-shorted consumer discretionary stocks (but muh inventory overhang), and as the squeeze spilled over across the market, all most-shorted names melted up with Goldman’s most shorted basket soaring to the highest level since April…

… but not even meme stonk “OG” Gamestop…

… had a day as stellar as Bed Bath and Beyond: the stock of the heavily-shorted retailer, which was trading at just $5 a few weeks ago, exploded as much as 75% higher today, one week after Jim Cramer said it was the next JC Penney…

… and briefly traded above $28, much to the chagrin of sellside analysts who recommended selling it (and leading to an even more powerful squeeze)…

… but just as most shorted memes rode the escalator up, so they took the elevator down, and tumbled even faster than they had risen amid a frenzied profit taking…

… potentially precipitated by the likes of Citadel which this time decided to trade alongside the squeeze.

What caused the sudden dump? Well, there are conflicting narrative but one which appears rather likely is the market’s sudden realization that euphoria was back to levels when the Fed Funds rate was 0% and the Fed was buying $120BN in securities every day, coupled with a warning from Wall Street’s ultrabearish – and most accurate – strategist, Michael Hartnett, who having correctly called the meltup, warned early this morning that he “would fade SPX >4328 as rates up-profits down our base case.”

Where did spoos rise to? 4327.5! Coincidence? We think not…

So has Hartnett done the impossible, and one month after calling the meltup, will he be right on the way down too? We will find out soon enough.

Elsewhere in today’s market, yields initially spiked despite another huge miss in new home starts, which tumbled to a fresh 16 month low…

… and then drifted lower all day to settle just barely higher on the day.

There were more fireworks in oil, which bounced early but then tumbled again to the lowest level since January…

… amid speculation that the Iranian nuclear deal – which has been “imminent” for the past 2 years will get finally done today (it didn’t) – coupled with more fears about China’s waning oil demand (somehow China is reportedly using less oil today than it did in 2020, which of course is a lie).

Ironically the lower the price of oil slides on expectations of a recession or some mythical supply blast (Iran is already selling all of its oil to China in violation of toothless US sanctions), the greater the ensuing inventory draws, and the higher the subsequent bounce as we hit a physical shortage wall – especially as the time comes to refill the SPR, and the summer of 2008 oil explosion repeats all over again.

Finally, while oil was plunging because a handful of bullish hedge funds were caught offside on their other positions and had to liquidate, US nat gas prices just hit a fresh 14 years high. Spoiler alert: either gas will plunge (it won’t, with European gas prices at bananas levels) or oil will surge as gas-to-oil switching takes the world by storm during the coming long, cold winter…

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA//

Housing Starts Crater In July As Bottom Falls Out Of The Market

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 08:48 AM

Amid surging layoffs in the real estate market, a collapse in homebuilder sentiment, soaring mortgage rates and plunging mortgage applications, it is hardly a surprise that analysts expected a drop in Housing Starts and Permits in May (-2.1% MoM and -1.3% MoM respectively), but those numbers were again destroyed as Housing Starts crashed 9.6% MoM and Permits plunged 3.3 MoM.

In absolute SAAR terms, housing permits dropped to the lowest level since Sept 2021 while start collapsed to levels not seen since Feb 2021.

Breaking down the numbers we find the following composition for permits which are notable in that multi-family (rental) units continue to rise even as single-family crater.

  • Permits, single-family, down 4.3% SAAR and down 11.7% YoY
  • Permits, multi-family, down 2.5% SAAR, up 26.2% Y/Y

The drop was even more pronounced in housing starts, where single-family units collapsed to just 916K, the lowest since June 2020.

  • Single-family starts -10.1% SAAR, and down 18.5% Y/Y
  • Multi-family starts down 17.4% SAAR, and down 10.0% Y/Y

Given the ongoing collapse of homebuilder sentiment, which is now in the worst slump since 2007, we suspect permits (forward-looking) will only get worse

Finally with Redfin reporting that a near record 63,000 potential buyers backed out of their housing contracts as the bottom falls out of the housing market, we suspect the new home inventory won’t get any help anytime soon as affordability crashes to multi-decade lows.

end

cost of building a home remains high due to high cost of concrete etc

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

Despite Plunging Lumber, The Cost Of Building A Home Remains Stubbornly High

 via MishTalk.com,

The cost of building a home has not fallen much even though raw lumber is down 65 percent from the peak…

Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reports Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges

The prices of building materials rose 0.4% in July (not seasonally adjusted) even as softwood lumber prices increased 2.3%, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Prices have surged 35.7% since January 2020, although 80% of the increase has occurred since January 2021. The PPI for goods inputs to residential construction, including energy, decreased 1.2% as the prices of #2 diesel and unleaded gasoline fell 16.6% and 16.7%, respectively.

The price index of services inputs to residential construction was driven 1.4% lower in July—the third consecutive monthly decline—by a 3.8% decrease in the building materials retail index. The services PPI is 3.0% higher than it was 12 months prior and 34.9% higher than its pre-pandemic level.

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 2.5% in July and has increased in 17 of the last 18 months. The latest increase is the largest since prices climbed 3.7% in March 2006. The index has climbed 6.8%, year-to-date, the largest YTD July increase in the series’ 34-year history.

Concrete Products

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 2.5% in July and has increased in 17 of the last 18 months. The latest increase is the largest since prices climbed 3.7% in March 2006. The index has climbed 6.8%, year-to-date, the largest YTD July increase in the series’ 34-year history.

Lumber

Note, those represent builder materials, different from raw lumber futures down to 598 from a peak of 1686.

The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) saw a modest increase (+2.3%) in July. Prices have fallen 28.2% year-to-date, although the extent to which the decrease has reached home builders and remodelers is unclear.

Gypsum Materials 

The PPI for gypsum products held steady in July after increasing 0.1% in June and 7.1% in May. and has soared 22.6% over the past year. After a quiet 2020, the price of gypsum products climbed 23.0% in 2021 and is up 7.6% through the first half of 2022.

Steel Mill Products 

Steel mill products prices decreased 3.7% in June following a 1.7% decline in June. over the two prior months. Although the index has fallen 10.1% since reaching its all-time high in December 2021, it is nearly twice the January 2021 level.

Paint 

The PPI for exterior and interior architectural coatings (i.e., paint) increased 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively, in July. The PPI for paint has not declined since January 2021—the prices of exterior and interior paint have risen 50.7% and 33.8%, respectively, in the months since.

Freight Transportation 

Not only have freight costs increased, but the prices of services to arrange freight logistics have climbed steeply as well. Over the course of 2021, the PPI for the arrangement of freight and cargo increased 95.1%. Although prices have fallen 8.8%, YTD, they remain 63.0% above pre-pandemic levels.

Other than concrete, gypsum, paint, steel, transportation, and perhaps lumber (depending on passthroughs and time of orders), inflation is under control.

NAHB Sentiment and Price Cuts

The above charts explain why builders have only cut prices by 5 percent despite huge declines in orders and buyer traffic. 

High rise construction, more dependent on concrete and steel may be having a rougher go of it.

For further discussion please see NAHB Sentiment Declines Eighth Consecutive Month Into Negative Territory

*  *  *

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IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

END

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

SWAMP STORIES

Nothing but a witch-hunt

(zerohedge)

DOJ Opposes Release Of Underlying Affidavit For FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid

MONDAY, AUG 15, 2022 – 04:45 PM

The Department of Justice has opposed the release of the underlying FBI affidavit used to justify last week’s raid on Mar-a-Lago because they claim “it would serve as a roadmap to the government’s ongoing investigation, providing specific details about its direction and likely course, in a manner that is highly likely to compromise future investigative steps,” according to Politico‘s Kyle Cheney.

“The fact that this investigation implicates highly classified materials further underscores the need to protect the integrity of the investigation,” the DOJ said in a Monday court filing.

Trump and other Republicans stepped up calls on Sunday for the release of the affidavit after a search warrant released last week indicated that Trump had 11 sets of classified documents at his home – which he told journalist John Solomon were declassified before they were taken out of the White House. The DOJ convinced a judge that they had probable cause to conduct the search due to potential violations of the Espionage Act – which have nothing to do with classification issues.

That said, the DOJ says it intends to unseal additional documents related to the raid.

What’s more, the DOJ says the release of the FBI affidavit would “chill future cooperation” by witnesses.

Republicans are calling for more information on what persuaded an anti-Trump federal judge to issue the search warrant.

“I think a releasing the affidavit would help, at least that would confirm that there was justification for this raid,” GOP Senator Mike Rounds told NBC‘s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, adding that the DOJ should “show that this was not just a fishing expedition, that they had due cause to go in and to do this, that they did exhaust all other means.”

“And if they can’t do that, then we’ve got a serious problem on our hands.”

Separately on Sunday, the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Marco Rubio, asked the Justice Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to provide the seized documents on a classified basis.

A spokesperson for the committee, charged with oversight of the handling of classified information, said the two senators had also requested “an assessment of potential risks to national security” as a result of possible mishandling of the files.

Representative Mike Turner, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, said on CNN on Sunday that the Biden administration should provide more details on what led to the search.

Congress is saying, ‘Show us. We want to know what did the FBI tell them? What did they find?’” Turner said. –Reuters

Developing…

END

DOJ seized Trump’s passports? DOJ slaps down Trump’s claims that feds ‘stole’ three of his passports during Mar-a-Lago raid – as he warns the agency ‘terrible things are going to happen’ if it doesn’t

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 16

SOURCE:

DOJ slaps down Trump’s claims that feds ‘stole’ three of his passports during Mar-a-Lago raid – as he warns the agency ‘terrible things are going to happen’ if it doesn’t cool things down

CBO: Actually, The “Inflation Reduction Act” Will Cause More Audits For Working Class

MONDAY, AUG 15, 2022 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Jazz Shaw via HotAir (emphasis ours),

A disturbing pattern has emerged when it comes to the messaging we’re seeing out of the White House in general and the Press Secretary in particular. They seem to believe that if you keep saying something that’s wrong over and over again, it will eventually either become true, or at least people will start to believe it.

That’s truly been the case with the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” that just passed in the House on a party-line vote. ‘This bill will lower inflation.’ (No, it will probably increase inflation or possibly not affect it.) The bill will reduce the deficit.’ (Nope. That’s not what the models show.) This bill will raise GDP.’ (Care to try again?) And then there’s the latest claim that the massive army of new IRS agents, many of them heavily armed but not trained in firearms handling very well, will not result in more audits of working-class people and will only impact those making more than $400k. They’ve said it over and over again. But the Congressional Budget Office begs to differ. (Free Beacon)

A Congressional Budget Office report found that the Internal Revenue Service will collect billions of dollars from auditing low- and middle-income Americans under the White House-backed “Inflation Reduction Act,” contradicting Biden administration claims, according to Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee.

Fox News confirmed the report, finding the CBO informed congressional Republicans that, under the act, audits of taxpayers making under $400,000 will account for about $20 billion in additional revenue.

The news comes after high-ranking Biden administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, assured Americans that the IRS would not increase audits of people earning under $400,000.

There was a time when the members of Congress didn’t generally make too many claims about the fiscal impact of new legislation until the CBO had scored it. Apparently, that quaint practice is no longer part of the day-to-day routine on the Hill. The CBO estimates that audits of people making less than Joe Biden’s claimed minimum income will produce an additional $20 billion in revenue for Uncle Sam. That’s a lot of money even in these days of freewheeling deficit spending. And it directly contradicts what the White House has been telling us. Of course, it’s too late now.

I will agree that there have been some inaccurate claims about this bill making the rounds, particularly in conservative circles. The nearly 90,000 new IRS workers will not be hired all at once, for example. They will be hired over a period of ten years and some of them will replace current agents who will retire. But there will still be tens of thousands of new workers and many will come in the door very soon.

The climate portion of the bill isn’t 100% hot garbage, though at least 90% of it certainly is. There will be some funding for improvements to the energy grid infrastructure and the easing of some regulatory hurdles for the construction of nuclear power plants. But most of those positive aspects of the plan will be effectively wiped out by all of the green energy subsidies and new fees imposed on the fossil fuel industry.

But at the end of the day, the claimed purpose of this legislation is little more than a bad joke being played on the taxpayers. The supposed “inflation reduction” claims have already been fully debunked. The Wharton School of Business concluded that the bill’s impact on inflation will be “statistically indistinguishable from zero.” And it will actually have a negative impact on GDP for many years to come.

These people in Congress and the White House are standing there on the world stage and lying to your faces in broad daylight. Yes, I realize that a story about politicians lying is generally a “dog bites man” type of report. But they could at least try a little harder to fool us, couldn’t they?

King report

The King Report August 16, 2022 Issue 6823Independent View of the News
The PBoC unexpectedly cut its 1-year rate on policy loans by 10bps to 2.75% and its 7-day repo rate to 10bps to 2% on Monday.  Disappointing China economic news was probably the catalyst.China July Retail Sales +2.7% y/y, 4.9% expectedChina July Retail Sales YTD -0.2% y/y, +0.1% expectedChina July Industrial Production +3.8%, 4.3% expectedChina Jan-July Fixed Investment +5.7% y/y, 62% expectedChina July Property Investment -6.4%, -5.7% expectedChina July Surveyed Jobless Rate 5.4%, 5.5% expected 
The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey suffered its 2nd largest decline in history.  The index plunged from 11.1 to -31.3 in August.   New Orders tumbled to -29.6 from +6.2; shipments plunged almost 50 points to -24.1; and the average workweek fell to -13.1.
 
The NAHB Housing Market Index for August fell to 49 from 55; 54 was consensus.
 
ESUs declined when China’s soft economic data appeared.  But ESUs and stocks traded sideways until they commenced a sharp decline when Europe opened.  ESUs hit a bottom of 4249.00 at 9 ET.  The rally for the NYSE opening then began.  When the NYSE opened, the usual suspects poured into ESUs and stocks.  ESUs went vertical until 9:55 ET.  Then, defensive asset allocators sold ESUs and bought USUs.
 
The ESU/stock decline ended at 11:13 ET.  ESUs for the second time jumped nearly vertical until 11:54 ET.  ESUs and stocks then plodded higher until peaking at 13:07 ET.  After a modest retreat, ESUs and stocks went inert until ESUs and stocks plodded to minor new highs at 15:20 ET.  ESUs and stocks then gently rolled over until ESUs spiked to a new high at 15:49 ET.  ESUs then sank 8 handles by the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Two vertical equity/ESU rallies during NYSE trading
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds rallied sharply; commodities tumbled on recession angst
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Can expiry manipulation trump recession angst this week?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4285.28
Previous session High/Low4301.79; 4256.90
 
@drsimonegold: A new study has found cardiovascular adverse effects in around a third of teens following Pfizer vaccination, and heart inflammation in one in 43, raising fresh concerns about the risks of vaccination for young people. This is beyond concerninghttps://t.co/QTOCguMBhB
 
@lhfang: Anita Dunn, the chief strategist of Biden’s presidential campaign and his close WH advisor for much of his first 6 months in office … finally, in Aug 2022, released an ethics disclosure. She secretly worked for Pfizer before joining the admin  https://t.co/XOuYxjQtvL
 
@ClayTravis: Moderna’s CEO says they are throwing away 30 million covid shots because no one anywhere in the world will take them. Yeah, no kidding, the shot is garbage. And everyone is slowly realizing it. It’s why no parents are getting it for their kids too:
 
USC, UCLA Doctors: Masks Not Effective in Stopping the Spread of COVID
https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2022/08/14/usc-ucla-doctors-masks-not-effective-in-stopping-the-spread-of-covid-n612161
 
A Deeper Dive into the CDC Reversal
The wording was chosen very carefully, not to say anything false outright, much less admit any errors of the past, but to imply that it was only possible to say these things now…
    Not one word of the CDC’s turgid treatise was untrue back in the Spring of 2020. There was always “infection-induced immunity,” though Fauci and Co. constantly pretended otherwise. It was always a terrible idea to introduce “barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.” The vaccines never promised in their authorization to stop infection and spread, even though all official statements of the CDC claimed otherwise, repeatedly and often… 
    Dr. Rajeev Venkayya is widely credited with coming up with the idea of lockdowns while he was working for the Bush administration back in 2005. He had no training at all in public health or epidemiology. He later marveled that it fell to him, a young desk-dwelling White House bureaucrat, to “invent pandemic planning.”…
    How many people on the planet have now been acculturated to top-down control, socialized to live in fear, accept whatever comes down from above, never to question an edict, and expect to live in a world of rolling man-made disasters? And was that the point after all, to breed low expectations for life on earth and relinquish the soul’s desire for a full and free life?
https://brownstone.org/articles/a-deeper-dive-into-the-cdc-reversal/
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie: The COVID vaccines were a failure. They failed to prevent spread of the disease and they became an impediment to developing vaccines that would actually prevent spreadThey became an excuse not to develop treatments. They have side effects that weren’t disclosed.
 
@ClayTravis: CEO of Pfizer, a company that has made tens of billions off mandated covid shots, tests positive for covid after four shots. Legislation should be introduced to recoup all profits for covid shots & money should go to back to taxpayers. A huge fraud has been perpetrated on us.
 
@ArtValley818_: FAUCI: “It’s called ‘the Fauci effect’…people go to medical school and go into science…because I symbolize, integrity, and truth” https://t.co/FLynafvFQh
 
Growth of physicians vs. growth of medical administrators (+>3500%) in the USA since 1970
https://twitter.com/Saikmedi/status/1556370213297201157/photo/1
 
Biden’s CIA Director Employed Undisclosed Chinese Communist Party Members While Heading Elite DC Think Tank – Carnegie employed at least 20 CCP members while Burns was president…
    “Either he appears to have allowed government-linked experts from a hostile power to affiliate with an organization boasting many former and future U.S. appointees or he didn’t know or bother to check — a remarkable lapse in operational security for a highly-cleared former U.S. official and pretty disqualifying for a director of Central Intelligence,” said Yates. “If you can’t track who was in your think tank, running a much larger intelligence agency is the wrong line of work.”…
https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/14/william-burns-cia-carnegie-cusef-marco-rubio/
 
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told wealthy clients there’s a chance the US is heading into ‘something worse’ than a recession – The categorization is an apparent downgrade from Dimon’s previous comments in June when he warned of an “economic hurricane.”…
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/business-insider-jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-told-wealthy-clients-theres-chance-us-heading
 
Jamie Dimon: There’s ‘truth’ to China’s claim US is ‘incompetent and lazy’ https://trib.al/3ys6Hqd
 
The FBI confiscated DJT’s passports.  WHY?  Last night, the DoJ said it will return the passports.  The DoJ admitted that the FBI seized material that is coverage by privilege, and will those items in 2 weeks.
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/doj-admits-it-took-trumps-passports-offers-return-them
 
@RichardGrenell: Trump team published the email *to prove* that @NBCNews & @NorahODonnell
were wrong – and that DOJ absolutely took (not “obtained”) the President’s passports.
 
Rumors have one sealed indictment on DJT, with more charges pending!  We cannot fathom the ramifications if Trump is indicted by a DC composed of Democratic grand jurors. 
 
@seanmdav: Biden’s corrupt AG Merrick Garland is going to use a corrupt DC grand jury taken from a pool of 95% hardcore Democrat partisans to indict Trump.  He’ll then use a corrupt DC trial jury from the same rigged pool to convict Trump. Dems want a constitutional crisis, so buckle up.
 
Even if the DoJ has evidence of real crimes, how will the Establishment square a Trump indictment with the excused venality of Hunter and Joe Biden, the Clintons, FBI & DoJ Russiagate actors, etc.?  How do ‘they’ square an indictment with a NYT report that Biden was pressing Garland to indict Trump or the report that Hillary has been pressing for a Trump indictment for at least a year?  After 6 years of trying to get Trump by all means, will a critical mass of Americans believe any evidence against Trump? 
 
The Biden DoJ opposes the release of the affidavit that was the predicate of the raid on Mar-a-Lago “to protect the integrity of an ongoing law enforcement investigation that implicates national security.”  Like the Steele Dossier, FISA warrants, Ukraine whistleblowers, etc., etc., etc.!
 
Just a few days ago, AG Garland said he wants to be “transparent”?
 
CNN commentator says Justice Department has to indict Trump or lose credibility: ‘No going back’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-commentator-justice-department-indict-trump-lose-credibility-going-back
 
Tucker Carlson: This is unprecedented, something awful.  You can feel it. Even Donald Trump can feel it… He asked for calm… This could get very bad, very fast for our country.  The Biden people know that perfectly well.  They know what can happened if they continue down the path of using law enforcement to cling to power.  But they don’t care, because they are facing a repudiation from voters, and they are desperate, and they will do anything… https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1559338848475291648
 
Today is the last trading day for August VIX options.  Walmart earnings and guidance, due before the NYSE open, could early impact trading.
 
Watch SPY August options for a good clue as to the disposition of impact trading entities.  147,870 SPY August 430 calls traded on Monday.  SPY closed 428.87.  The highest put volume was 53,310 for the SPY August 425 put.  Someone wants to push stocks higher to squeeze shorts and expiring August calls.
 
Expected economic data: July Housing Starts 1.53m, Permits 1.65m; July Industrial Production 0.3% m/m, Mfg Production 0.4%, Capacity Utilization 80.2; Expected Retailer earnings: HD 5.00, WMT 1.63
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3953; 100-day MA: 4108; 150-day MA: 4215; 200-day MA: 4329
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,757; 100-day MA: 32,658; 150-day MA: 33,273; 200-day MA: 33,905
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3810.39 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4138.86 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4265.73 triggers a buy signal
 
GOP Rep Jim Jordan said on Fox that up to 14 FBI agents have come forward as whistleblowers over Justice Department and FBI misconduct.
 
GOP @repdarrellissa: No one is buying that Biden just happens to be vacationing out of sight. He’s being hidden from public view on the anniversary of his catastrophe in Afghanistan.
 
@RepJimBanks: President Biden dismissed the threat of a Taliban takeover and General Milley provided him cover. They must be held accountable for their gross negligence.
 
Ex-Navy Intel officer @JackPosobiec: Obama and Hillary were running guns from Libyan jihadists to Syrian jihadists (Benghazi scandal) and when they got caught, they let an ambassador and an entire CIA site get wiped out rather than admit it. (Called off military rescue teams)
 
Ex-British Amb. @CraigMurrayOrg: Assange is also charged under the US Espionage Act.  The “tangible proof” of that came from a witness, Siggi Thordarson, who has convictions for fraud and for pedophile activity, was paid $10,000 by the FBI for his “testimony” and has since told a magazine he made it all up.
 
Jan 6 Pipe Bomber’s Mechanical Timer Detonates Fedsurrection Lie
Witnesses saw the pipe bomber planting the bombs on January 6, not at 8 p.m. on January 5? What’s going on here? Don’t we have a video of the pipe bomber planting the pipe bomb, so we can verify the truth here?  Indeed, as we conclusively demonstrated in our previous bombshell piece, the FBI absolutely has the money shot surveillance footage of the pipe bomber allegedly planting the DNC pipe bomb. For some reason, however, the FBI is refusing to release this critical piece of footage to the public…
    When James Ray Epps Sr. first called the FBI regarding his January 2021 activities in Washington D.C., he didn’t mention how he implored protesters in several locations to go inside the Capitol, but he later told an agent that he expected a bomb would detonate on a side street near the Capitol…
    This means that Ray Epps was not just the only person on camera caught repeatedly urging people to go into the Capitol as early as January 5th, he also according to this interview claims to have some sort of advance knowledge or “intuition” that bombs would be planted near the Capitol. And sure enough, pipe bombs were found on January 6th only blocks away from the Capitol, and their discovery was timed perfectly to coincide with the initial 12:53 breach of the West side of the Capitol of which Ray Epps appears to have been a key orchestrator… we’ve only begun to scratch the surface of the FBI’s mendacity regarding Epps, the pipe bomb, and the Fedsurrection.
https://www.revolver.news/2022/08/jan-6-pipe-bombers-mechanical-timer-detonates-fedsurrection-lie/
    
@julie_kelly2: You’ll notice the media’s interest in this story has completely evaporated. The Jan 6 committee has barely mentioned it. And there’s no report from the FBI on its alleged “investigation” into the devices:  And thanks to Revolver for including my piece on Karlin Younger, the woman who just HAPPENED to find the alleged bomb outside the RNC RIGHT BEFORE the joint session commenced on Jan 6.  You won’t believe who she worked for–or maybe you will.
    Younger was a project manager for FirstNet Authority, a public-private partnership between AT&T and first responders to prioritize emergency communications during an attack or disaster. Standing board members for FirstNet include the attorney general and secretary of Homeland Security. Several federal agencies, including the Justice Department, use FirstNet services. And a few weeks before January 6, FirstNet received its largest-ever commitment from a law enforcement agency, a $92 million contract for FirstNet’s services. That agency was the FBI.
 
Ex-Time reporter: The day I knew journalism had died in America
I was fired by Time in 1994 for investigating a story that threatened President Bill Clinton and many senior officials in his administration did I begin to understand that the mainstream media was dead…
    I returned to the States after 18 years overseas to work for Congressional Democrat Tom Lantos as a specialist on weapons of mass destruction, and subsequently joined a new investigative team at Time magazine. Sources in the AFL-CIO Machinists Union tipped me off to strange doings at the B-1 bomber plant in Columbus, Ohio, midnight visits by Chinese intelligence officers, and frustrated US Customs agents. As I investigated, encouraged by Time editors, I uncovered and documented a massive effort by China to buy sensitive military production gear from US weapons plants, seemingly with the benediction — or at least, a blind eye — from Clinton administration officials
    Time’s editors showed in July 1994 that they believed their job was not to uncover the truth but to provide political cover to Democrats in Washington…
https://nypost.com/2022/08/06/kenneth-r-timmerman-reflects-on-the-day-journalism-died-in-us/?s=02
 
Victor Davis Hanson: Democrats and The Media Are Destroying the Rule of Law in America
Whether you’re targeted or exempt depends on your ideology. So in the past, when there was a dispute over the archives, the presidential papers, Barack Obama just said, “I’m not going to turn them over” to the Freedom of Information [Act]. He spent over $30 million dollars resisting efforts to do that…
    The second thing is this January 6th committee… is sort of like a French Robespierre “Committee on Public Safety.” To be on that committee, you have to have one criteria — you had to vote to impeach Donald Trump… And finally, I never thought I would say this. The FBI is beyond redemption.
    All of its bureaus and institutions have to be farmed out and broken up. If you have a warrant, an FBI warrant, there’s no guarantee that that has not been altered If you subpoena, and you want FBI records on phones with Mueller, they will be wiped clean
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/08/14/victor_davis_hanson_democrats_and_the_media_are_destroying_the_rule_of_law_in_america.html
 
@DonaldJTrumpJr: So, in Los Angles they just disqualified almost 30% of ballot signatures BUT they expect you to believe that LESS THAN 1% of Ballots were faulty in the 2020 Presidential Election!
 
Does This Photograph Show Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush, and George Wallace?
CBS News included the photograph in a gallery of images from Wallace’s political career and reported that the photograph was taken in 1983, at Bush’s residence in Kennebunkport, Maine.  At the time, Bush was serving as vice president under Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton was the governor of Arkansas, and George Wallace was at the beginning of his final term as governor of Alabama…
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/photograph-clinton-bush-wallace/
 
The Poison of Participation Trophies (Ike’s fruit salad vs. Milley’s) https://t.co/U008Nr1z87
 
Atlantic op-ed claims Catholic rosary has become ‘an extremist symbol
https://www.foxnews.com/media/atlantic-op-ed-claims-catholic-rosary-become-extremist-symbol

Greg Hunter 

end

see you tomorrow 

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