AUGUST 17: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $12.00 TO $1763.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 32 CENTS TO $19.81//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $11.00 TO $926.60//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $16.15 TO $2138.65//RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER DESIRES TO OFFER A PHYSICAL EXCHANGE TO COMPETE WITH LBMA//COVID UPDATES: VACCINE IMPACT/VACCINE INJURY//UK CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE BY A HUGE 10.1% Y/Y/ GERMAN ELECTRICITY BILLS TO CONSUMER RISES AGAIN//IN USA MANY HOME OWNERS WALKING AWAY DUE TO FALLING PRICES AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES//TARGET ANNOUNCES POOR RESULTS AS ITS STOCK PLUMMETS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

 Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1763.00 DOWN $12.00

SILVER: $19.81 DOWN 32 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1762.40

SILVER: $19.80

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,758 DOWN 234

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,291. DOWN 701

Platinum price closing DOWN $11.00 AT$926.60 

Palladium price; closing DOWN $16.15  at $2138.65

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,773.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/18/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 H GOLDMAN 2
132 C SG AMERICAS 13
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 16
661 C JP MORGAN 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 1 1
880 H CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 14


TOTAL: 31 31
MONTH TO DATE: 32,519

JPMorgan stopped:   6/31

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

31 NOTICES FOR 3100 OZ //0.09642 TONNES

total notices so far: 32,519 contracts for 3,251,900 oz (101.147 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

96 NOTICES FILED FOR 480,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  923 :  for 4,615,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.32 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.113 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 2405  CONTRACTS TO 144,314.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.22 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.22) AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 1878 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF SPECULATOR SHORTS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -535

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 13 days, total 6550  contracts:  32.750 million oz  OR 2.729 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (467 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.75 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 31.43 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2405 WITH OUR  $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A ZERO SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2405 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 12.025 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 96  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  480,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1626 CONTRACTS  TO 453,960 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–70   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $16.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 19300 OZ//NEW STANDING 104.037 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $16.45 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1346  OI CONTRACTS 4.186 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3042  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 453,960

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1346 CONTRACTS  WITH 1626 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3042 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1346 CONTRACTS OR 4.186 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3042) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1696): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1346 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 19300 oz.    3) ZERO/ LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

30,960 CONTRACTS OR 3,096,000 OZ OR 96.30  TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2326 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 96.30 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  96.30/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 96.30 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2495 CONTRACT OI TO 144,314 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2405  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 0 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2405   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.025 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.22

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.45%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 91.93 OR 0.46%    /The Nikkei closed UP 353.86 OR % 1.23.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7794//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7966//    /Oil DOWN TO 86.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 91939//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1696 CONTRACTS TO 453,960 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $7.85  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3042 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3042 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :3042 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3042 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1346  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3042 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1696  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 16.45.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (104.037),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.037 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $16.45) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 4.186 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (104.037 TONNES)

WE HAD –70  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1346 CONTRACTS OR 134,600  OZ OR 4.186 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 126,180///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  100,614/extremely poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 17

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz64,653.041  oz

Brinks
Manfra





Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz32,079.431 oz
Brinks, HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today31   notice(s)
3100 OZ
0.09642 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)929 contracts 
92,900 oz
2.089 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month32,519 notices
3,251,900 OZ
101.147 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 2

i) Into Brinks:  98.241 oz

ii) Into HSBC:  31,981.190 oz

total deposits 32,079.431 oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Manfra  98.241 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 64,554.800 oz

total:  64,653.041 oz

total in tonnes: 2.01 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //1

Brinks:  578.718 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 960 contracts having GAINED  171 contracts .

We had 22 notices served upon yesterday so we gained a HUMONGOUS  193 contracts or an additional 19300 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August. 

.As promised, from this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.

Sept. LOST 31 contracts to 3628 contracts.

October GAINED 132 contracts UP to 39,315 

We had 31 notice(s) filed today for 3100 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 31 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (32,519) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 960 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 31 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,344,800 OZ  OR 104.037 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (32,519) x 100 oz+   (960)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (31} x 100 oz} which equals 3,344,800 oz standing OR 104.037 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  104.037 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,318,414,091 oz   72.11 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,702,865.929 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,505,435.039  OZ (451,18 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,197,430.890 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,187,021.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 379.06 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 17

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory583,880.900 oz
Delaware
Brinks
JPMorgan
 


Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory159,475.740 oz
Loomis
 
No of oz served today (contracts)96 CONTRACT(S)
480,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)52 contracts 
(260,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)923 contracts
 4,615,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account

i) Into Loomis:  159,475.740 0z

total deposit:  159,475.740   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 173.408 million oz/332.605 million =52.13% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks 1951.000 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 580,932.700  oz

iii) out of Delaware:  997.200  oz

total: 583,880.900   oz

 adjustments:  1  customer to dealer

HSBC: 451,088.200  oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.478 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 332.605 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 148 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 19 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY

SO WE GAINED 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 4819 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 58,228

OCTOBER GAINED  8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 114

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 96 for  480,000 oz

Comex volumes:53,774// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 52,184 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  923 x 5,000 oz = 4,615,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(148) and the number of notices served upon today 96  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 923 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (148)  – number of notices served upon today (96) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,875,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 992.20 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.113 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff Pans Joe Biden’s Unwarranted Inflation Victory Lap

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff appeared on the Newsmax Saturday Report along with former Rep. Peter King (R-NY) to talk about President Joe Biden’s unwarranted inflation victory lap.

The CPI for July came in slightly cooler than June’s sizzling 9.1%. But even at 8.5%, CPI remains near 40-year highs. But Biden focused on the unchanged month-on-month CPI to declare victory over inflation and claimed he’s building “an economy that works for everyone.”

Host Rita Cosby kicked off the interview by asking Rep. King his views on funding for 87,000 IRS agents in the “Inflation Reduction Act.” King said the spending in the bill will be bad enough and that it will cause “long-term consequences,” but the beefed-up IRS will cause even more damage. He warned the agency will be weaponized to go after political opponents.

Peter Schiff went a step further and said he doesn’t even think the US should have an income tax.

I think the government should fund itself with excise taxes. I don’t think subjecting Americans to these types of audits is the type of country that the founding fathers envisioned when they created this republic.”

Schiff also said he doesn’t think the IRS will use its new manpower to go after billionaires and millionaires.

They can avoid taxes legally. It’s the middle class, it’s small business owners, it’s people who are self-employed — that’s who’s in the IRS crosshairs. And their going to be hit not only with huge tax bills, but interest and penalties that will actually exceed what they owed in taxes.”

CBO analysis of the “Inflation Reduction Act” found that it would collect some $20 billion from people making under $400,000 per year. That breaks a Democrat promise not to raise taxes on people making less than $400K. But Schiff said it’s worse than that.

The inflation tax hits hardest those who earn the least. The fact that Biden is doing a victory dance, I want to throw a flag for taunting.”

Schiff pointed out that while gasoline prices fell last month, driving CPI lower, food prices went up, along with costs in a lot of other categories.

So, it wasn’t a good month. It was another bad month for consumers. It was just masked by a temporary drop in gasoline prices for one month.”

Rep. King wrapped up the interview, saying Biden is “going against reality.” He also pointed out that even though the president can’t control everything in the economy, “the wounds we suffered today are all self-inflicted by Joe Biden.”

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

A good read

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The convicted criminals of JPMorgan

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-08-16 21:07Section: Daily Dispatches

9:25p ET Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing tonight at Sprott Money, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report notes the inability of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to discover the manipulation of the gold and silver markets for which the U.S. Justice Department just achieved conviction of two former traders at bullion bank JPMorganChase.

Hemke adds that one of those former traders, Michael Nowak, was on the Board of Directors of the London Bullion Market Association until he was indicted — whereupon he hired as his criminal defense lawyer the former head of the CFTC’s ineffectual enforcement division, David Meister.


It’s called “regulatory capture” and embodies the comprehensive corruption of the U.S. governemt’s so-called financial regulators.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Convicted Criminals of JPMorgan” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/The-Convicted-Criminals-of-JP-Morgan-Craig-Hemke-August-16-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is a very important read:  Russian finance minister wants to break the LBMA monopoly on gold by creating a new international standard  , the Moscow World Standard

by using physical gold to fix prices.  This is where we are heading

(Vzglyad/Institute for Social Economic and  Political Studies/Moscow/GATA) 

Russian government plans to ‘break the LBMA monopoly’ on gold

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-08-16 11:30Section: Daily Dispatches

Treasury Proposes to Create Alternative to the London Precious Metals Standard

From Vzglyad
Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies, Moscow
Thursday, July 28, 2022

Via Google Translator

https://vz.ru/amp/news/2022/7/28/1169741.html

A new international standard for the precious metals market, the Moscow World Standard (MWS), should be created to become an alternative to the standard of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the Russian Finance Ministry said.

A letter from the Ministry of Finance to industry participants says that “an independent international infrastructure” is needed to “normalize the functioning of the precious metals industry.”

According to the department, it is “critically necessary” to create it, RIA Novosti reports.

It is proposed to “place a specialized international precious metals exchange headquartered in Moscow” using the “new international standard MWS” as the “basis of the structure.” It is also proposed to establish a Price Fixing Committee. Subject to the application of the MWS standard, it will include the central banks and the largest banks of the Eurasian Economic Union countries represented in the precious metals market.

According to the Russian department, it is necessary to “bet on fixing prices in the national currencies of the key member countries, or on new units of international settlements, such as the new unit of settlements proposed by the president of Russia within the member countries of the BRICS organization.”

The Ministry of Finance wants to make membership in this organization attractive to all foreign market participants, especially China, India, and Venezuela, Peru, and other countries of South America, as well as Africa. The agency expects that such a move will quickly break the LBMA monopoly and ensure the stable development of the industry.

Recall that the Council of the European Union  approved the seventh package of anti-Russian sanctions, including a partial embargo on gold, blacklisting 55 individuals and legal entities, expanding the list of dual-use goods prohibited from import. The largest producer of primary silver and the second-largest gold producer in Russia, Polymetal,  is exploring the possibility of selling Russian assets.

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: USA/COTTON

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7794

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7966

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 91.93 PTS OR  0.46%

2. Nikkei closed UP 353.86 OR 1.23%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  106.66/Euro FALLS TO 1.0160

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.183/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.15/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.105%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.331% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.24%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.495//

3j Gold at $1769.10 silver at: 19.85  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 60/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.31

3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and  91 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.15DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9532– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9684well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.893  UP 7  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.148  UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.96

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Tumble After UK Double-Digit Inflation Shock Sparks Surge In Yields

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 07:55 AM

Futures were grinding gingerly higher, perhaps celebrating the end of the Cheney family’s presence in Congress, and looked set to re-test Michael Hartnett bearish target of 4,328 on the S&P (which marked the peak of yesterday’s meltup before a waterfall slide lower when spoos got to within half a point of the bogey), when algos and the few remaining carbon-based traders got a stark reminder that central banks will keep hammering risk assets after the UK reported a blistering CPI print, which at a double digit 10.1% was not only higher than the highest forecast, but was the highest in 40 years.

The print appeared to shock markets out of their month-long levitating complacency, and yields – both in the UK and the US – spiked…

… and with yields surging, futures had no choice but to notice and after trading at session highs just before the UK CPI print, they have since tumbled more than 40 points and were last down 0.85% or 37 points to 4,271.

Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.9% signaling a selloff in technology names will continue. The dollar rose as investors awaited the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting for clues on policy makers’ sensitivity to weaker economic data.

In US premarket trading, retail giant Target slumped 4% after reporting earnings that missed expectations despite still predicting a rebound. Applied Materials and PayPal dropped at least 1.3%. Tech stocks are the forefront of the growing pessimism over equity valuations on the back of Fed rate increases. The S&P 500 had posted a small gain on Tuesday, aided by earnings reports from retailers Walmart Inc. and Home Depot. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Manchester United (MANU US) rises as much as 17% in US premarket trading before trimming most of the gains, after Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he was buying the English football club but later added that he was joking.
  • Hill International (HIL US) shares rise 61% in premarket trading hours after it announced Global Infrastructure Solutions will commence an all-cash tender offer for $2.85/share in cash, representing a premium of 63% to the last closing price.
  • BioNTech (BNTX US) was initiated with a market perform recommendation at Cowen, which expects demand for Covid-19 vaccines to mirror annual flu trends as the pandemic enters its endemic phase.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares surge 20% in premarket trading, putting the stock on track for its sixth day of gains. The home-goods company has helped reinvigorate a wave of meme stock buying
  • Agilent (A US) saw its price target boosted at brokers as analysts say the scientific testing equipment maker’s results were strong thanks to growth in biopharma and a recovery in China, while the company’s guidance was on the conservative side. Shares rose .
  • Jefferies initiated coverage of Waldencast Plc (WALD US) class A with a buy recommendation as analyst Stephanie Wissink sees 29% upside potential.
  • Sea Ltd. (SE US) ADRs slipped as much as 2.1% in US premarket trading, extending Tuesday’s declines, as Morgan Stanley cut its PT on expectations of slowing growth at the Shopee owner’s e-commerce business in the third quarter.
  • Weber (WEBR US) downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi, which says there are too many concerns to remain on the sidelines, including a decline in point-of-sale traffic and macro factors like inflation weighing on consumer demand

In the past two months, US stocks rallied on signs of peaking inflation and an earnings-reporting season that saw four out of five companies meeting or beating estimates. Boosted by relentless systematic (CTA) buying and retail-driven short squeezes, as well as a surge in buybacks, stocks recovered more than 50% of the bear market retracement. Yet, continuing rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession in the world’s largest economy are weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, concern is growing that Fed rate setters will remain focused on the fight against inflation rather than supporting growth.

“We expect the FOMC minutes to have a hawkish tilt,” Carol Kong, strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd., wrote in a note. “We would not be surprised if the minutes show the FOMC considered a 100 basis-point increase in July.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell after a strong start amid signs the continent’s energy crisis is worsening. Benchmark natural-gas futures jumped as much as 5.1% on expectations the hot weather will boost demand for cooling. In the UK, consumer-price growth jumped to 10.1%, sending gilts tumbling. Real estate, retailers and miners are the worst performing sectors. The Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index declined 2%, making it the worst-performing sector in the wider European market, as focus turned to UK inflation that soared to double digits for the first time in four decades and also to today’s FOMC minutes. German and Swedish names almost exclusively account for the 10 biggest decliners. TAG Immobilien drops 5.4%, Wallenstam is down 4.7%, Castellum falls 4% and LEG Immobilien declines 3.3%. The sector tumbles on rising bond yields, with 10y Bund yield up 11bps, and dwindling demand for Swedish real estate amid rising rates.

Earlier on Wednesday, stocks rose in Asia amid speculation that China may deploy more stimulus to shore up its ailing economy while Japanese exporters were boosted by a weaker yen. After a string of weak data driven by a property-sector slump and Covid curbs, China’s Premier Li Keqiang asked local officials from six key provinces that account for 40% of the economy to bolster pro-growth measures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.8%, with consumer-discretionary and industrial stocks such as Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda among the leaders on Wednesday. The benchmark Topix erased its year-to-date loss. Chinese food-delivery platform Meituan also rebounded after dropping more than 9% in the previous session on a Reuters report that Tencent may divest its stake in the firm. Chinese stocks erased declines early in the day, as investors hoped for more economic stimulus after a surprise rate cut on Monday failed to excite the market. Premier Li Keqiang has asked local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures.

“I believe policymakers have the tools to prevent a hard landing if needed,” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said in a note. “I find investors are overly pessimistic about Chinese stocks — which means there is the potential for positive surprise.” Asia’s stock benchmark is trading at mid-June levels as traders attempt to determine the trajectory of interest-rate hikes and economic growth globally — as well as the impact of China’s property crisis and Covid policies. Meanwhile, minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, out later Wednesday, will be carefully parsed. New Zealand stocks closed little changed as the country’s central bank raised interest rates by a half percentage point for a fourth-straight meeting. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,127.70, supported by materials and consumer discretionary stocks. South Korea’s benchmark missed out on the rally across Asian equities, as losses by large-cap exporters weighed on the measure

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the dollar gained versus most of its Group-of-10 peers. The pound was the best G-10 performer while gilts slumped, led by the short end and sending 2-year yields to their highest level since 2008, after UK inflation accelerated more than expected in July. The yield curve inverted the most since the financial crisis as traders ratcheted up bets on BOE rate hikes in money markets, wagering on 200 more basis points of hikes by May. The euro traded in a narrow range against the dollar while the region’s bonds slumped, led by the front end. Scandinavian currencies recovered some early European session losses while the aussie, kiwi and yen extended their slide in thin trading. EUR/NOK one-day volatility touched a 15.12% high before paring ahead of Norges Bank’s meeting Thursday where it may have to raise rates by a bigger margin than indicated in June given Norway’s inflation exceeded forecasts for a fourth straight month, hitting a new 34-year high. Consumer sentiment in Norway fell to the lowest level since data began in 1992, according to Finance Norway. New Zealand’s dollar and bond yields both rose in response to the Reserve Bank hiking rates by 50bps, while flagging concern about labor market pressures and consequent wage inflation; the currency subsequently gave up gains in early European trading. The Aussie slumped after data showing the nation’s wages advanced at less than half the pace of inflation in the three months through June, backing the Reserve Bank’s move to give itself more flexibility on interest rates.

In rates, treasuries held losses incurred during European morning as gilt yields climbed after UK inflation rose more than forecast. US 10-year around 2.87% is 6.5bp cheaper on the day vs ~13bp for UK 10-year; UK curve aggressively bear-flattened following inflation data, with long-end yields rising about 10bp. Front-end UK yields remain cheaper by ~20bp, off session highs, leading a global government bond selloff. US yields are higher on the day by by 4bp-7bp; focal points of US session are 20-year bond auction and FOMC minutes release an hour later. Treasury auctions resume with $15b 20-year bond sale at 1pm ET; WI 20-year yield at around 3.35% is ~7bp richer than July’s sale, which stopped 2.7bp through the WI level.

In commodities, oil fluctuated between gains and losses, and was in sight of a more than six-month low — reflecting lingering worries about a tough economic outlook amid high inflation and tightening monetary policy.  Spot gold is little changed at $1,774/oz

Looking at the day ahead, the FOMC minutes from July will be the main highlight, and the other central bank speaker will be Fed Governor Bowman. Otherwise, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s and Cisco Systems, and data releases include US retail sales and UK CPI for July.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,293.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 443.30
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 163.48
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 530.38
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 29,222.77
  • Topix up 1.3% to 2,006.99
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 19,922.45
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,292.53
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 60,168.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,127.68
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,516.47
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.06%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0178
  • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,775.21
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.50

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • More market prognosticators are alighting on the idea of benchmark Treasury yields sliding to 2% if the US succumbs to a recession. That’s an out-of-consensus call, compared with Bloomberg estimates of about a 3% level by the end of this year and similar levels through 2023. But it’s a sign of how growth worries are forcing a rethink in some quarters
  • The euro-area economy grew slightly less than initially estimated in the second quarter as signs continue to emerge that momentum is unraveling. Output rose 0.6% from the previous three months between April and June, compared with a preliminary reading of 0.7%, Eurostat said Wednesday
  • Egypt became a prime destination for hot money by tethering its currency and boasting the world’s highest interest rates when adjusted for inflation
  • Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, posted its biggest loss since the pandemic as rate hikes, surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred volatility. It lost an equivalent of $174 billion in the six months through June, or 14.4%

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks just about shrugged off the choppy lead from the US where markets were tentative amid mixed data signals and strong retailer earnings, but with gains capped overnight ahead of the FOMC Minutes and as participants digested another 50bps rate hike by the RBNZ. ASX 200 swung between gains and losses with the index indecisive amid a slew of earnings and with strength in the consumer sectors offset by underperformance in tech, energy and healthcare. Nikkei 225 climbed above the 29,000 level with the index unfazed by mixed data releases in which Machinery Orders disappointed although both Exports and Imports topped forecasts. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong led higher by tech amid plenty of attention on Meituan after reports its largest shareholder Tencent could reduce all or the bulk of its shares in the Co. which a Tencent executive later refuted, while the mainland was less decisive amid headwinds from the ongoing COVID situation and with power restrictions disrupting activity in Sichuan, although reports also noted that Chinese Premier Li told top provincial officials that they must have a sense of urgency to consolidate the economic recovery and reiterated to step up macro policies.

Top Asian News

  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 3.00%, as expected, while it stated that conditions need to continue to tighten and they agreed that maintaining the current pace of tightening remains the best means. RBNZ also agreed that further increases in the OCR were required to meet the remit objective and that domestic inflationary pressures had increased since May. Furthermore, the RBNZ raised its projections for the OCR and inflation with the OCR seen at 3.69% in Dec. 2022 (prev. 3.41%) and at 4.1% for both Sept. 2023 and Dec. 2023 (prev. 3.95%), while it sees annual CPI at 4.1% by Sept. 2023 (prev. 3.0%).
  • RBNZ Governor Orr stated at the press conference that they are not forecasting a recession but expected below-potential growth amid subdued consumer spending. Governor Orr also stated that they did not discuss a 75bps rate hike today and that 50bps moves have been orderly and sufficient, while he added that getting rates to 4% would buy comfort for the policy committee and that a Cash Rate of around 4% is unambiguously above neutral and sufficient to meet the inflation mandate.
  • Chongqing, China is to curb power use for eight days for industry.
  • China’s Infrastructure Boom Gets Swamped by Property Woes
  • Tencent 2Q Revenue Misses Estimates
  • Hong Kong Denies Democracy Advocates Security Law Jury Trial
  • UN Expert Says Xinjiang Forced Labor Claims ‘Reasonable’
  • Singapore’s COE Category B Bidding Hits New Record
  • Delayed Deals Add to Floundering Singapore IPO Market: ECM Watch

European bourses have dipped from initial mixed/flat performance and are modestly into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Stateside, futures are under similar pressure awaiting fresh corporate updates and the July FOMC Minutes, ES -0.6%. Fresh drivers relatively limited throughout the session with known themes in play and focus on upcoming risk events; stocks also suffering on further hawkish yield action. Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 4.68 (exp. 4.58), Revenue 27.47 (exp. 28.12bln); expect FY22 total & comp. sales at bottom-end of outlook range, Operating Income and Diluted EPS at top-end. Target Corp (TGT) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.72), Revenue 26.0bln (exp. 26.04bln); current trends support prior guidance.

Top European News

  • German Gas to Last Less Than 3 Months if Russia Cuts Supply
  • European Gas Surges Again as Higher Demand Compounds Supply Pain
  • Entain Falls; Citi Views Fine Negatively but Notes Steps by Firm
  • UK Inflation Hits Double Digits for the First Time in 40 Years
  • Crypto.com Receives Registration as UK Cryptoasset Provider

FX

  • Greenback underpinned ahead of US retail sales data and FOMC minutes, DXY holds tight around 106.500.
  • Pound pegged back after spike in wake of stronger than expected UK inflation metrics, Cable hovers circa 1.2100 after fade into 1.2150.
  • Kiwi retreats following knee jerk rise on the back of hawkish RBNZ hike, NZD/USD near 0.6300 from 0.6380+ overnight peak.
  • Aussie undermined by marginally softer than anticipated wage prices and lower RBA tightening bets in response, AUD/USD well under 0.7000 vs 0.7026 at one stage.
  • Yen weaker as yield differentials widen again, but Euro cushioned by more pronounced EGB reversal vs USTs, USD/JPY probes 21 DMA just below 135.00, EUR/USD bounces from around 1.0150 towards 1.0200.
  • Loonie and Nokkie soft amidst latest slippage in oil, USD/CAD closer to 1.2900 than 1.2800, EUR/NOK nudging 9.8600 within 9.8215-9.8740 range.

Fixed Income

  • Debt retracement ongoing and gathering pace ahead of Wednesday’s key risk events.
  • Bunds now closer to 154.00 than 156.00 and 157.00 only yesterday, Gilts not far from 114.50 vs almost 116.00 and 117.00+ earlier this week and T-note sub-119-00 vs 119-31 at best on Monday.
  • Sonia strip hit hardest as markets price in aggressive BoE hikes in response to UK inflation data toppy already elevated expectations.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are currently little changed overall, having recovered from a bout of initial pressure; newsflow thin awaiting fresh JCPOA developments
  • Spot gold is little changed overall but with a slight negative bias as the USD remains resilient and outpaces the yellow metal as the haven of choice.
  • Aluminium is the clear outperformer amid updates from Norsk Hydro that they are shutting production at their Slovalco site (175k/T year) by end-September, due to elevated energy prices.
  • OPEC Sec Gen says he sees a likelihood of an oil-supply squeeze this year, open for dialogue with the US. Still bullish on oil demand for 2022. Too soon to call the outcome of the September 5th gathering. Spare capacity at around the 2-3mln BPD mark, “running on thin ice”.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Gasoline -4.5mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillates -0.8mln (exp. +0.4mln).
  • Shell (SHEL LN) announced it is to shut its Gulf of Mexico Odyssey and Delta crude pipelines for two weeks in September for maintenance, according to Reuters.
  • Uniper (UN01 GY) says the energy supply situation in Europe is far from easing and gas supply in winter remains “extremely challenging”.
  • China sets the second batch of the 2022 rare earth mining output quota at 109.2k/T, via Industry Ministry; smelting/separation quota 104.8k/T.

Geopolitics

  • China’s military is to partake in a military exercise in Russia, their participation has nothing to do with the international situation.
  • Taiwan’s Defence Ministry says they have detected 21 Chinese aircraft and five ships around Taiwan on Wednesday, via Reuters.
  • Iran is calling on the US to free jailed Iranian’s, says they are prepared for prisoner swaps, via Fars.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.2%
  • 08:30: July Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 1.0%
  • 08:30: July Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 1.0%
  • 08:30: July Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 10:00: June Business Inventories, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
  • 14:00: July FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap

Starting in Europe, where the looming energy crisis remains at the forefront. An update from our team, who just published the fourth edition of their indispensable gas monitor (link here), where they note the surprisingly fast rebuild of German gas storage, driven by reductions in industrial activity, reduces the risk that rationing may become reality this winter. Many more insights within, so do read the full piece for analysis spanning scenarios. Keep in mind, that while gas may be available, it is set to come at a higher clearing price, which manifest itself in markets yesterday where European natural gas futures rose a further +2.64% to €226 per megawatt-hour, just shy of their closing record at €227 in March. But, that’s still well beneath their intraday high from March, where at one point they traded at €345. Further, one-year German power futures increased +6.30%, breaching €500 for the first time, closing at €507. Germany is weighing consumer relief measures in light of climbing consumer prices and also announced that planned nuclear facility closures would be “temporarily” postponed.

The upward energy price pressure and attenuated (albeit, not eliminated) risk of rationing pushed European sovereign yields higher. 10yr German bunds climbed +7.1bps to 0.97%, while 10yr OATs kept the pace, increasing +7.4bps. 10yr BTPs increased +15.9bps, widening sovereign spreads, while high yield crossover spreads widened +10.2bps in the credit space.

Equities were resilient, however, with the STOXX 600 posting a +0.16% gain after flitting around a narrow range all day. Regional indices were also robust to climbing energy prices, with the DAX up +0.68% and the CAC +0.34% higher. In the States the S&P 500 registered a modest +0.19% gain, with the NASDAQ mirroring the index, falling -0.19%. Retail shares drove the S&P on the day, with the two consumer sectors both gaining more than +1%, following strong earnings reports from Wal Mart and Home Depot.

Treasury yields also climbed, but the story was the further flattening in the curve. 2yr yields were +7.5bps higher while 10yr yields managed to increase just +1.6bps, leaving 2s10s at its second most negative close of the cycle at -46bps. 10yr yields are another basis point higher this morning. A hodgepodge of data painted a mixed picture. Housing permits beat expectations (+1674k vs. +1640k) while starts (+1446k vs. +1527k) fell to their slowest pace since February 2021. However, under the hood, even permits weren’t necessarily as strong as first glance, as single family permits fell -4.3% with gains in multifamily pushing the aggregate higher. Indeed, year-over-year, single family permits have now fallen -11.7% while multifamily permits are +23.5% higher. So the single family housing market continues to feel the impact of Fed tightening. Meanwhile, industrial production climbed +0.6% month-over-month (vs. +0.3%), with capacity utilization hitting its highest level since 2008 at 80.3%.

Drifting north of the border, Canadian inflation slowed to 7.6% YoY in July in line with estimates, while the average of core measures climbed to a record 5.3%. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem penned an opinion piece saying that while it looks like inflation may have peaked, “the bad news is that inflation will likely remain too high for some time.” In turn, Canadian OIS rates by December climbed +16.2bps.

In other data, the expectations component of the German ZEW survey fell to -55.3, its lowest level since October 2008 at the depths of the GFC. In the UK, regular pay (excluding bonuses) fell by -3.0% in real terms over the year to April-June 2022, its fastest decline on record.

On the Iranian nuclear deal, EU negotiators reportedly found Iran’s response constructive, though Iran still had some concerns. Notably, Iran is looking for guarantees that if a future US administration withdraws from the JCPOA the US will “have to pay a price”, seeking insulation from the vagaries of representative democracy.

Asian equity markets are trading higher after Wall Street’s solid performance overnight. The Nikkei (+0.76%) is leading gains across the region with the Hang Seng (+0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.23%) and the CSI (+0.51%) all rebounding from its opening losses this morning. US futures are struggling to gain traction this morning with the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) trading just below flat.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its official cash rate (OCR) for the fourth consecutive time by an expected +50bps to 3%, a seven-year high, while bringing forward the estimate of future rate increases. The central bank expects the OCR will reach 3.69% at the end of this year and expects it to peak at 4.1% in March 2023, higher and sooner than previously forecast.

Early morning data coming out from Japan showed that exports rose +19.0% y/y in July (v/s +17.6% expected) posting 17 straight months of gains while imports advanced +47.2% (v/s +45.5% expected) driven by global fuel inflation and a weakening yen. With the imports outweighing exports, the nation reported trade deficit for the 14th consecutive month, swelling to -2.13 trillion yen in July (v/s -1.91 trillion yen expected) compared to a revised deficit of -1.95 trillion yen in June.

In terms of the day ahead, the FOMC minutes from July will be the main highlight, and the other central bank speaker will be Fed Governor Bowman. Otherwise, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s and Cisco Systems, and data releases include US retail sales and UK CPI for July.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Debt retracement continues and DXY firmer with Retail Sales & Minutes due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 06:54 AM

  • European bourses have dipped from initial mixed/flat performance and are modestly into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%.
  • Stateside, futures are under similar pressure awaiting fresh corporate updates (LOW & TGT thus far) and the July FOMC Minutes, ES -0.6%.
  • USD bid but off best with Retail Sales and Minutes ahead, GBP pulls back from initial post-CPI gains, JPY hit on differentials
  • Debt retracement continues as yields climb while Sonia drops on further hawkish pricing after UK data
  • Crude benchmarks little changed overall awaiting JCPOA developments
  • Gold is softer as USD is the haven of choice currently, Aluminium outperforms at Slovalco to close amid elevated energy costs
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes, Supply from the US, and Earnings from Cisco.

As of 11:25BST/06:25ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes, Supply from the US, Earnings from Cisco.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

  • China’s military is to partake in a military exercise in Russia, their participation has nothing to do with the international situation.
  • Taiwan’s Defence Ministry says they have detected 21 Chinese aircraft and five ships around Taiwan on Wednesday, via Reuters.
  • Iran is calling on the US to free jailed Iranian’s, says they are prepared for prisoner swaps, via Fars.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses have dipped from initial mixed/flat performance and are modestly into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%.
  • Stateside, futures are under similar pressure awaiting fresh corporate updates and the July FOMC Minutes, ES -0.6%.
  • Fresh drivers relatively limited throughout the session with known themes in play and focus on upcoming risk events; stocks also suffering on further hawkish yield action.
  • Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 4.68 (exp. 4.58), Revenue 27.47 (exp. 28.12bln); expect FY22 total & comp. sales at bottom-end of outlook range, Operating Income and Diluted EPS at top-end.
  • Target Corp (TGT) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.72), Revenue 26.0bln (exp. 26.04bln); current trends support prior guidance.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Greenback underpinned ahead of US retail sales data and FOMC minutes, DXY holds tight around 106.500.
  • Pound pegged back after spike in wake of stronger than expected UK inflation metrics, Cable hovers circa 1.2100 after fade into 1.2150.
  • Kiwi retreats following knee jerk rise on the back of hawkish RBNZ hike, NZD/USD near 0.6300 from 0.6380+ overnight peak.
  • Aussie undermined by marginally softer than anticipated wage prices and lower RBA tightening bets in response, AUD/USD well under 0.7000 vs 0.7026 at one stage.
  • Yen weaker as yield differentials widen again, but Euro cushioned by more pronounced EGB reversal vs USTs, USD/JPY probes 21 DMA just below 135.00, EUR/USD bounces from around 1.0150 towards 1.0200.
  • Loonie and Nokkie soft amidst latest slippage in oil, USD/CAD closer to 1.2900 than 1.2800, EUR/NOK nudging 9.8600 within 9.8215-9.8740 range.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt retracement ongoing and gathering pace ahead of Wednesday’s key risk events.
  • Bunds now closer to 154.00 than 156.00 and 157.00 only yesterday, Gilts not far from 114.50 vs almost 116.00 and 117.00+ earlier this week and T-note sub-119-00 vs 119-31 at best on Monday.
  • Sonia strip hit hardest as markets price in aggressive BoE hikes in response to UK inflation data toppy already elevated expectations.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are currently little changed overall, having recovered from a bout of initial pressure; newsflow thin awaiting fresh JCPOA developments
  • Spot gold is little changed overall but with a slight negative bias as the USD remains resilient and outpaces the yellow metal as the haven of choice.
  • Aluminium is the clear outperformer amid updates from Norsk Hydro that they are shutting production at their Slovalco site (175k/T year) by end-September, due to elevated energy prices.
  • OPEC Sec Gen says he sees a likelihood of an oil-supply squeeze this year, open for dialogue with the US. Still bullish on oil demand for 2022. Too soon to call the outcome of the September 5th gathering. Spare capacity at around the 2-3mln BPD mark, “running on thin ice”.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Gasoline -4.5mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillates -0.8mln (exp. +0.4mln).
  • Shell (SHEL LN) announced it is to shut its Gulf of Mexico Odyssey and Delta crude pipelines for two weeks in September for maintenance, according to Reuters.
  • Uniper (UN01 GY) says the energy supply situation in Europe is far from easing and gas supply in winter remains “extremely challenging”.
  • China sets the second batch of the 2022 rare earth mining output quota at 109.2k/T, via Industry Ministry; smelting/separation quota 104.8k/T.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Foreign Minister Truss has commenced formal dispute proceedings against the EU, accusing the bloc of a “clear breach” of the post-Brexit trade agreement, according to the Telegraph.

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK CPI YY (Jul) 10.1% vs. Exp. 9.8% (Prev. 9.4%); 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.8%)
  • UK Core CPI YY (Jul) 6.2% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.8%); (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • UK ONS House Prices (Jun) +7.8% vs. prev. +12.8%

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden signed the USD 750bln health care, tax and climate bill known as the Inflation Reduction Act into law, according to CNN.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks just about shrugged off the choppy lead from the US where markets were tentative amid mixed data signals and strong retailer earnings, but with gains capped overnight ahead of the FOMC Minutes and as participants digested another 50bps rate hike by the RBNZ.
  • ASX 200 swung between gains and losses with the index indecisive amid a slew of earnings and with strength in the consumer sectors offset by underperformance in tech, energy and healthcare.
  • Nikkei 225 climbed above the 29,000 level with the index unfazed by mixed data releases in which Machinery Orders disappointed although both Exports and Imports topped forecasts.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong led higher by tech amid plenty of attention on Meituan after reports its largest shareholder Tencent could reduce all or the bulk of its shares in the Co. which a Tencent executive later refuted, while the mainland was less decisive amid headwinds from the ongoing COVID situation and with power restrictions disrupting activity in Sichuan, although reports also noted that Chinese Premier Li told top provincial officials that they must have a sense of urgency to consolidate the economic recovery and reiterated to step up macro policies.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 3.00%, as expected, while it stated that conditions need to continue to tighten and they agreed that maintaining the current pace of tightening remains the best means. RBNZ also agreed that further increases in the OCR were required to meet the remit objective and that domestic inflationary pressures had increased since May. Furthermore, the RBNZ raised its projections for the OCR and inflation with the OCR seen at 3.69% in Dec. 2022 (prev. 3.41%) and at 4.1% for both Sept. 2023 and Dec. 2023 (prev. 3.95%), while it sees annual CPI at 4.1% by Sept. 2023 (prev. 3.0%).
  • RBNZ Governor Orr stated at the press conference that they are not forecasting a recession but expected below-potential growth amid subdued consumer spending. Governor Orr also stated that they did not discuss a 75bps rate hike today and that 50bps moves have been orderly and sufficient, while he added that getting rates to 4% would buy comfort for the policy committee and that a Cash Rate of around 4% is unambiguously above neutral and sufficient to meet the inflation mandate.
  • Chongqing, China is to curb power use for eight days for industry.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Jul) -1436.8B vs. Exp. -1405.0B (Prev. -1383.8B, Rev. -1398.5B)
  • Japanese Exports YY (Jul) 19.0% vs. Exp. 18.2% (Prev. 19.4%, Rev. 19.3%)
  • Japanese Imports YY (Jul) 47.2% vs. Exp. 45.7% (Prev. 46.1%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jun) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -5.6%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jun) 6.5% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 7.4%)
  • Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q2) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q2) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.45%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 91.93 OR 0.46%    /The Nikkei closed UP 353.86 OR % 1.23.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7794//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7966//    /Oil DOWN TO 86.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 91939//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

.  

end

3c CHINA

CHINA//

Chinese factories ration electricity as the heatwave disrupts its hydropower generation

(zerohedge)

Chinese Factories Ration Electricity As Heatwave Disrupts Hydropower Generation

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 07:20 PM

China’s worst heatwave in decades is curbing hydropower generation in one of the country’s most populous provinces. Local authorities requested some factories in southwestern China to halt production to conserve electricity, adding to the financial pressures of an already rapidly slowing economy. 

Sichuan province has more than 80 million inhabitants and is home to a major manufacturing hub. The Washington Post said some factories had suspended production on request by the government due to high temperatures and drought, leading to declining water flows through local hydropower reservoirs. 

Jin Xiandong, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said on Tuesday that China has to increase coal-fired power output because of waning hydropower output. 

China’s inland Sichuan province is a major manufacturing hub that produces consumer goods from electronics, furniture, and food. Also, it’s home to the world’s largest crystalline silicon solar cell producer.

China Securities Journal said Foxconn’s plant in Sichuan that produces Apple products, such as iPads and Macs, wouldn’t be significantly impacted by power rationings. 

The province is highly dependent on hydropower, and high temperatures that could last through the end of this month might indicate more power restrictions for manufacturing plants. 

Fu Linghui, China’s National Bureau of Statistics spokesman, said the heatwave has sparked “adverse effects on economic operations,” adding that the economic recovery “has slowed down marginally.” 

On Sunday, we noted that China’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rates in a feeble attempt to prop up the failing economy weighed by Covid lockdowns, property downturn, and a crippling heatwave. The cut comes after July’s economic data was awful, pointing to an economic slowdown gaining momentum. 

Further power cuts in Sichuan will result in more production suspension and dampen the country’s souring economic outlook.  

END

Now add Toyota !! and the world’s top batter maker to halt factories in China amid the drought induced power crisis

(zerohedge)

Toyota And World’s Top Battery Maker Halt Factories In China Amid Drought-Induced Power Crisis

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 09:31 PM

Update (2130ET): Add Toyota Motor Corp. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., the world’s largest battery maker, to the growing list of companies shutting down factories in China’s Sichuan province as a drought-induced power crisis worsens, according to Bloomberg

Toyota closed its plant in the provincial capital of Chengdu until Saturday, a company spokesperson said, while Contemporary Amperex halted operations at its lithium battery factory in Yibin. 

Sichuan is one of China’s most populated provinces, with 80 million inhabitants, and is home to a major manufacturing hub heavily reliant on hydropower. 

However, a heatwave and drought have caused reservoir levels to drop, resulting in declining power generation and forcing local authorities to ration power for factories. 

The shutdowns add to a growing number in industries stemming from solar panels to aluminum smelting. Volkswagen AG said on Monday that its factory in Chengdu is affected by power shortages, but that it was only expecting slight delays in deliveries to customers. Foxconn Technology Co. also makes Apple iPads in the province, but said it was seeing only limited impact from the drought so far. -Bloomberg 

The drought-induced power crisis is another excuse Beijing can use to explain why its economy falters. 

* * * 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

UK

Huge increase in UK’s CPI at 10.1% set the stage for today’s bloodbath

(zerohedge)

Gilts Wake Up With A Scream After CPI, Have More Tears To Shed

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 08:20 AM

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live commentator and reporter

Those higher-than-forecast inflation numbers out of the UK are spurring interest-rate traders to firm up pricing for next month’s Bank of England review.

Every one of the key inflation measures for July came in higher than forecast, with retail-price inflation accelerating to 12.3% from 11.8% in June. (And you can only imagine what the numbers will be in the fourth quarter when we may have a new cap on energy prices.)

News of faster inflation comes just a day after the domestic labor market added more jobs in July than anyone thought. Little wonder that overnight indexed swaps are now fully pricing in a 50-basis point increase from the BOE when it meets next on Sept. 15.

With the BOE’s policy rate still not yet in neutral territory at a time when inflation is running amok, the BOE has little reason to balk away from another 50-basis point increase especially with the economy proving this resilient. Even though the BOE is essentially chasing the clock having lost valuable time earlier in the cycle by not having moved emphatically on rates to align demand in line with supply, it still has a narrow window to act before things go completely pear-shaped.

All these factors mean there is little solace in sight for front-end gilts, and what it heralds for curve inversion as Mark Cranfield says. As for those looking at the risk-reward equation on receiving meeting-dated swaps for next month, suffice to say that the BOE will find it hard to look away when inflation is burning all around.

Indeed, after pressing the snooze button incessantly, front-end gilts have at last woken up with a sense of dread about missing their tryst with destiny. It’s about time.

The writing has been on the wall for some time now, and those inflation prints from this morning have proved to be the immediate catalyst for today’s selloff at the front end. If inflation is running at more than a double-digit pace and the economy had the wherewithal to cope with rate hikes all this while, why would your policy rate be at less than neutral?

That’s why former BOE official Andrew Sentance reckons the BOE’s benchmark rate needs to climb to as much as 4%. While that may look daunting considering we are just at 1.75%, by moving in baby steps earlier on in the cycle when it ought to have gone faster, the BOE has to go faster later in the cycle to catch up.

Those factors mean that this year’s selloff in front-end gilts is far from done.

END

GERMANY//

A winter gas surcharge of 2.4 euros per kilowatt hour has just been set

(zerohedge)

German Consumers Just Learned How Much Extra They Will Have To Pay For Gas This Winter

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 02:45 AM

With millions of German facing a painful freeze in the coming months, a winter gas surcharge, which will come into effect in October for German households and businesses, was set at 2.4 euro cents per kilowatt hour on Monday, DW reported on Monday

Gas prices have been driven by German sanctions on Russian gas, prompting market concerns about energy security and also shortfalls in deliveries in some cases.  And while so far, consumers have been largely shielded from the increases, with companies unable to pass on their increased costs, all that is about to change. 

“It will get more expensive — there is no getting around that. Energy prices continue to rise. But: we are already unburdening citizens to the tune of €30 billion,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Twitter on Monday, soon after the announcement. “And we are working on a further relief package. We will leave nobody alone with these increased costs.” 

The decision on the amount of the levy fell to the company charged with overseeing and coordinating the German gas market, Trading Hub Europe.  The stated aim of the levy is to cover around 90% of the additional costs incurred by gas providers who are now paying higher prices to secure gas, in some cases from new sources other than Russia.

Just under half of German households are heated using gas, the most popular method by far in the country. German dependence on Russian gas has become notorious this year amid the war in Ukraine, both for household power and for industry

Government seeks sales tax exemption

Finance Minister Christian Lindner has already said he aims to soften the blow by appealing in Brussels for the right to waive sales tax on the new gas levy. Doing this would require the green light from the EU. “That will make a difference for people,” Lindner said.

The head of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries, Kerstin Andreae, argued that this did not go far enough. She told public broadcaster ARD it would be better to try to secure the reduced sales tax rate of 7% for all gas payments, saying that relief for consumers was “essential.” 

Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Monday after the announcement that if the plan to a sales tax exemption falters in Brussels, “we will come up with fitting mechanisms to balance this out.” Habeck called the levy a “bitter medicine,” but said that by imposing it, “we are securing supply in Germany.” 

“The levy must and will be accompanied by a further relief package,” Habeck said, in comments mirroring Scholz’s, particularly for low-income households liable to be hit hardest. Governnment spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann told reporters in Berlin that by the time the levy came into effect on October 1, such measures would “be prepared.” 

For a four-person household, the increase should mean an additional roughly €480 per year, excluding sales tax.

Industries rush to call for help

German businesses and trade unions quickly warned of the potential impacts on their operations. 

“The federal government must usher in a further relief package to protect people from energy poverty,” the chairman of major trade union Verdi, Frank Werneke, said in a statement. “Fiddling with income tax thresholds is no solution for this. Much more, we need rapid and effective relief particularly for people on low or medium incomes.”

The president of the German steelmakers’ association, Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff, said on Monday that the levy would cost  the German steel industry in the region of €500 million a year. He also said the industry would already incur costs of €7 billion because of rising prices for energy, even before the levy. Germany’s steel industry uses roughly 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year.

The German federation of chemicals industries called the decision “an extremely bitter pill” in a statement, calling on the government to subsidize the extra costs to limit the impact. 

The VDMA group of mechanical engineering companies said that the levy, coupled with gas prices expected to climb further, and concern among customers could conspire to put businesses at risk. 

“Increasingly out members are confronted with suppliers who consider new [gas] contracts to be so risky, that they are not making any tenders at all, or only offers with a minimum duration,” the VDMA’s Thilo Brodtmann said.

Fairness and effect on inflation questioned

Business-focused newspaper Handelsblatt on Monday featured a study from an economic institute with close ties to German trade unions. According to the Institute for Macroeconomics and Cyclical Analysis, the gas levy could end up accelerating inflation rates by as much as 2%, bringing them closer to 10%.

Commerzbank’s chief economist Jörg Krämer also considered increased inflation likely as a result. 

“Coupled with the expiry of the 9-euro [public transport] ticket and the discount at filling stations, this could push the inflation rate over 9% in October and November. It’s an enormous reduction in purchasing power for consumers,” Krämer told Reuters news agency. 

Germany, like many western economies, is facing its first period of rapid inflation in decades, with the most recent figures showing a slight dip to 7.5% year-on-year in July. 

A leading member of Germany’s socialist Left Party, Dietmar Bartsch, railed against the plan in a Monday newspaper interview. Bartsch called the levy an “impoverishment program for many people,” and argued that the government should cover any additional costs with the “rapidly rising sales tax revenues.” He also called for a bid to cover the increased costs in what he considered a more equitable manner. 

“It is irresponsible of the government that no effort is made to check what financial situation the consumers are in, instead approving this blanket levy for everybody,” Bartsch told the RND network of newspapers.

END

GERMANY

As indicated from the above commentary, German prices hit a record with the energy crisis worsening

(zerohedge)

German Power Prices Hit Record As Energy Crisis Worsens

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 06:55 AM

German power prices surged above 500 euros per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG for the first time as the energy crisis worsened.

German year-ahead power jumped 6% to 507 euros per megawatt-hour as there are no signs of the natural gas rally slowing down. 

Russia’s reduction of NatGas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and a scorching summer across Europe have been the main drivers of power prices. Since early June, power prices have risen 173%, pressuring households and businesses with unprecedented costs. 

“The longer these price rises go up, the more this will be felt across the economy,” said Daniel Kral, senior economist at consultant Oxford Economics. “The magnitude of the increase and magnitude of the crisis isn’t comparable to anything in the past few decades.” 

Meanwhile, Europe’s benchmark NatGas prices are at the highest intraday price since early March. 

“Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows,” Bloomberg said. 

The standoff continues between Germany and Russia over Nord Stream’s turbine stuck in transit after repair work was conducted in Canada. Russia cut the pipeline’s capacity to just 20% last month, citing technical problems.

Germany’s Economic Minster Robert Habeck warned Monday that Russia was weaponizing the pipeline as an “excuse” to reduce supplies to Europe ahead of winter. 

Germany wants to fast-track its path away from Russian NatGas though it may find it very hard because it’s used in everything from power plants to factories. It will be a tricky balancing act for the Germans to reduce Russian NatGas supplies as it would only mean higher power prices and heating costs due to tight supplies, which may force industrial shutdowns this winter and some households to resort to using firewood to heat their homes. 

END

GERMANY

We have been warning you that this might happen:  shipping halted on the Rhine River near Kaub, blocking waterway

(zerohedge)

Shipping Halted On Rhine Near Kaub Chokepoint Due To Distressed Barge Blocking Waterway

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 08:25 AM

The Rhine Waterways and Shipping Authority (WSA) said a vessel was blocking the Rhine River south of Cologne, Germany, on Wednesday after an engine issue caused it to run aground.

A section of Europe’s most important inland waterway for transporting fuel and other industrial goods, between St. Goar and Oberwesel, was closed, according to WSA. 

Bloomberg noted the affected vessel comprised of four parts, which must be independently towed away, and the stretch of the river may reopen sometime today. 

An alleged video on social media shows the distressed vessel being pulled aside. Also, the dangerously low water levels at this part of the river are pretty noticeable. 

The incident occurred near the closely watched Kaub chokepoint that is currently registering a depth of 34 centimeters (13.4 inches). Earlier this week, Kaub fell to 30 centimeters (11.8 inches), and below 40 centimeters (15.7 inches), many shippers find it uneconomical to operate barges past Kaub. 

Despite today’s incident blocking the part of the Rhine and shallow water levels that have made Kaub impassible for some barges (or at least restrict cargo weight on vessels to improve draft), the water level at the critical German waypoint is set to rise to 41 centimeters (16.1 inches) by Saturday, offering some relief to shippers. By Sunday, water levels could be as high as 49 centimeters (19.3 inches). 

Disruptions on the Rhine are bad news for Germany and the millions of tons of commodities and other goods shipped through inland Europe amid the worst energy crisis in decades. 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

TURKEY/SYRIA/KURDS

Turkey Strikes Northern Syria, Killing At Least 17, As Cross-Border Offensive Looms

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 01:05 PM

Tuesday into Wednesday has witnessed heavy fighting between Kurdish YPG and Turkish forces along the Syrian border town of Kobane, at a moment Turkish President Erdogan’s planned large scale cross-border offensive looms. Already there are Turkish media reports claiming that a Turkish military convoy has entered Jarablus, northern Syria – with unverified social media photos circulating that purport to show convoys amassing.

Turkish shelling of Syrian Kurdish positions has reportedly killed and wounded civilians including a 14-year old child. And a series of airstrikes have hit Syrian government border posts, killing 17. However, it’s unclear how many among these were Syrian national troops, Kurdish militia fighters, or pro-government militia members who fight alongside the army.

“Seventeen fighters were killed in Turkish air strikes that hit several Syrian regime outposts… near the Turkish border,” one pro-opposition war monitor told Middle East Eye. Turkish military officials have said they’ve killed five Kurdish militants in the fresh assault.

Turkey’s defense ministry said one of its soldiers was killed in a Kurdish counter-strike with artillery. A statement said that on the Syrian side of the border “Thirteen terrorists were neutralized” in “retaliation”.

A Syrian government statement said meanwhile that “Any attack on a military outpost run by our armed forces will be met with a direct and immediate response on all fronts,” according to state-run SANA.

So far throughout the war in Syria, Turkey has conducted three major cross border operations going back to 2016, in efforts to prevent any level of Kurdish autonomy from forming, as part of what it deems border stabilization efforts. At the same time it has long supported jihadist groups which seek to ethnically cleanse Kurds, while at the same time trying to topple the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad. 

Over the period, Turkey has seized hundreds of kilometers of Syrian sovereign territory and has effectively pushed the de facto border demarcating control some 30km deep into Syria. The United States, which has limited forces on the ground (most estimates are between 1,000 to 2,000 special forces soldiers), has tended to stay out of Turkey’s way, despite Kurds making up the bulk of the US-backed and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

Interestingly, all of this comes as over the past week there have been substantial rumors of official contacts and talks between the Syrian and Turkish foreign ministries. For example, last week Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu for the first time publicly urged reconciliation between the Syrian government and the so-called “rebel” groups, even though Turkey has long used the very same jihadist groups as proxies to wage war on the Syrian state.

His comments were seen as an apparent easing of Ankara’s longstanding hostility towards al-Assad’s government and enraged the Syrian opposition and rebel groups. But this latest Turkish attack on Syrian border posts strongly signals continued hostility and friction between Ankara and Damascus for the immediate future.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

WHO Renews Push for Global Pandemic Treaty, as World Bank Creates $1 Billion for vaccine passports.

Inbox

Robert Hryniak8:05 AM (8 minutes ago)
to

A corrupt organization pushes for control under the guise of health safety. What happened to national rights of citizenship and personal choice of health status?
With what is yet to come over the next several years this failing fiasco of delusional control will face extensive national upheavals. Leading to leave few countries that will escape chaos that ensues.

https://greenmedinfo.com/blog/who-renews-push-global-pandemic-treaty-world-bank-creates-1-billion-fund-vaccine-

Dr Paul Alexander..

Vaccine Impact/

Why You Should be Investing in Ancient Grains for Your Food Storage Preparations
August 16, 2022 7:07 pm
There is a certain dietary philosophy that has claimed in recent years that humans evolved from “hunters and gathers” and that modern agriculture was a recent development in human history over the last many billions of years, and this dietary philosophy began to condemn ALL grains as not fit for human consumption. The flaw to this belief, of course, is that it accepts Darwinian evolutionary biology as a fact, rather than just a theory about the origins of life. The history of the human race as recorded in the ancient writings of the Bible, however, shows that man was an agriculturist since the beginning, as God created the first man and woman to tend the Garden of Eden, where undoubtedly grains grew. “Gluten” is now blamed for many diseases, so that grains are categorically condemned as an “anti-nutrient” by some modern dietary thinking. Much of this belief comes from the field of laboratory diagnostics, where one today can be tested for “food allergies,” and if gluten shows up in your food allergy test, then you are diagnosed as “gluten intolerant” or having an allergy to wheat. However, you might be surprised to find out (or maybe not if you have now become aware of the corruption in the diagnostic testing field such as PCR tests to test for “viruses”), that there is currently no accepted test protocol to determine if one is allergic to gluten. Even if there was an accurate test to see if gluten is floating around in your body somewhere, what would it actually prove? It would only prove that your body is not processing gluten properly, and a just as reasonable conclusion to such a test, if it existed, would be to blame your digestive system for not processing it correctly, rather than blaming gluten. So for most people who believe they are allergic to gluten, it is usually based on the fact that if they eat any products that contain wheat and gluten, like their Krispy Kreme donuts, or their “breakfast of champions” highly processed cereal, and feel sick afterwards, then they must have an “allergy” to gluten. This is faulty reasoning, of course, because there are many factors to look at when one cannot consume highly processed grain products. Most of America’s grains, for example, are contaminated with the popular herbicide glyphosate, the active ingredient in RoundUp and the most widely used herbicide in the world, which is now linked to cancer. Glyphosate is known to seriously damage our digestive systems, and our “microbiome.” Ever since we found out that our certified organic grains from North America were contaminated, I have searched all over the world to find clean grains that are not contaminated, and focused on ancient grains that had not been hybridized to increase the gluten elasticity so coveted by bakeries to help breads rise quicker. Whole grains are a great investment for food security IF the grains are NOT contaminated! There are probably many places where you can order bulk food for long-term storage, but please make sure you are storing CLEAN and HEALTHY food. This will prove to be invaluable if a crisis hits where it is difficult to find food, and you want to make sure that the food you store will be food that can keep you healthy, and NOT make you sick!Read More…Wildfires As A Weapon: US Military Exposed as Corporate Media Predicts Killer Floods Worse than Earthquakes for California
August 16, 2022 8:17 pm
Dane Wigington of GeoengineeringWatch.org has released an explosive video discussing previously classified documents about how the U.S. Military has been using “wildfires” as a weapon for decades now. In the corporate media, a study was just published claiming that a disaster “larger than any in world history” faces California, and it is not an earthquake, but killer floods. They are blaming it on climate change, of course, but never mentioning the deliberate geoengineering programs that are probably really behind all of this. U.S.A Today reported: “A new study says that as the Earth warms, a massive California flood gets more likely — one that would swamp Los Angeles, displace millions and cause historic damage. Megadrought may be the main weather concern across the West right now amid the constant threat of wildfires and earthquakes. But a new study warns another crisis is looming in California: ‘Megafloods.’ Climate change is increasing the risk of floods that could submerge cities and displace millions of people across the state, according to a study released Friday.”Read More…
Sophia Media, LLC

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

Vaccine injury

 Groundbreaking Ruling: Italian Court Orders Analysis of Covid ‘Vaccines’ to Determine if ‘Harmful’ (Video) – RAIR

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello2:45 AM (4 hours ago)
to me, organm999

Groundbreaking Ruling: Italian Court Orders Analysis of Covid ‘Vaccines’ to Determine if ‘Harmful’ (Video) – RAIR

end

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every with today’s major stories

Michael Every…

“The West Is Really In Deep Trouble On Many Fronts – Many Self-Inflicted”

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 03:40 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Byron, Shelley, and Churchill

We have some wildly bullish markets out there right now. US equities have to be beaten back whack-a-mole style, it seems, as regardless of what happens it is ‘always time to buy stocks’. Especially when “important indicators” say it is; until “important voices” say it isn’t.  

Moreover, and running counter to that enthusiasm, natural gas prices just hit new 14-year highs in the US and close to record levels in Europe, as other energy sources literally dry up in the summer heat. After a lag, that will drag up other energy with it because of substitution, and then everything else will get dragged up too as a result. For example, zinc surged too yesterday after one of Europe’s largest smelters announced it would halt production in September due to higher energy costs. And lots of things use zinc.

The West is in trouble on the most fundamental level with Europe at the epicentre – as explored in ‘An unfolding gas crisis in Europe’, which concludes: “It it is all but certain that the European economy will face some hardship this winter.” And not only Europe.

We also have wildly bearish takes on such matters, however, among which the recent missive from Pepe Escobar, ‘The Second Coming of the Heartland’, takes the cake.

The title deliberately apes Yeats’ ‘The Second Coming’ and its infamous beginning: “Turning and turning in the widening gyre; The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere; The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst; Are full of passionate intensity.”  It also nods to Mackinder’s ‘Heartland Theory’ that who controls the Eurasian “World Island” controls the world. Then he quotes philosopher Byung-Chul Han, who directly channels Marx on the disruptive power of “financialization” to such a degree that the Bearded One might want to sue for plagiarism. All good points.

Yet the writing’s tone and passion leans towards Coleridge, Byron, and Shelley: “This unelected gaggle of insufferable mediocrities –from von der Leyden and Borrell to that piece of Norwegian wood Stoltenberg– may dream they live in the pre-1914 era, when Europe was at the political centre. Yet now not only “the centre cannot hold” (Yeats) but Eurocrat-infested Europe has been definitely engulfed by the maelstrom, an irrelevant political backwater seriously flirting with reversion to 12th century status.

The physical aspects of the Fall –austerity, inflation, no hot showers, freezing to death to support neo-Nazis in Kiev– has been preceded, and no Christianized imagery need apply, by the fires of sulphur and brimstone of a Spiritual Fall. The transatlantic masters of those parrots posing as “elites” could never come up with any idea to sell to the Global South centred on harmony and much less “community”…. We still do not have a post-Tik Tok Tintoretto to depict the collective West’s multi-wallowing in Dante-esque chambers of pop Hell. “

And you thought this Daily could get a bit colorful at times!

Of course, this West-bashing is contrasted with the marvels of the Silk Road (and, unspoken, its gas resources), its stalactites, and the spiritual-and-economic promise of a “community of shared future for mankind”. Indeed, all the piece really lacks is, “In Xanadu did Vlad Putin a stately pleasure dome decree.”

On which note, the Russian president just railed against the US-led “unipolar world order”, stating its time “has now come to an end”, and that the only way to diffuse global tensions is by reinforcing “the modern multipolar world system,” – or, to militarily escalate in order to deescalate. That’s as he also just used an arms expo to claim Russia’s weapons were “significantly superior” –read cheaper– than their western counterparts, as tried to plug them to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Meanwhile, in economic terms, he stressed: “[Western] hegemony means stagnation for the whole world, for the whole civilization. [It means] obscurantism, the abolition of culture, and neoliberal totalitarianism.”

Against this backdrop, many in the West are still focused on whether now is the time to buy frivolous stocks, assets, or housing.

Note that Escobar’s and Putin’s latest offerings come just over a year since the collapse of Afghanistan’s pro-Western democracy; as Iran haggles like a bazaar merchant with the EU and US’s bizarre negotiating team over a nuclear deal – as it looks like the US is walking out without buying despite the EU flashing them a give-away look that says, “But honey, I really want it!”; as Russia embraces North Korea, whom nobody else will touch with a bargepole; as Turkey strikes a closer economic relationship with Moscow too; and as Taiwan remains in the headlines.

Things are really happening, and fast. And the West is really in deep trouble on many fronts – many self-inflicted. Frivolity and been the order of the day for far too long.

Yet if coloring in countries on maps was the key to success then the Soviets would have won the Cold War. Making geographical connections work economically is the key. As covered in ‘Why Bretton Woods 3 Won’t Work’, the countries lining up to forge a ‘Heartland’ are largely large, sparsely populated places that sell the same stuff. Turkmenistan can export gas to Kazakhstan, which can export gas back in return: both can export gas to Russia, in exchange for more gas. Only China stands out as a producer of things – and yet it still relies on Western markets to prop up its own economy and currency, given it has too little demand and far too much supply.

Indeed, not only are we seeing headlines about “multipolar world systems”, but ones saying ‘China’s Belt and Road initiative on brink of crisis as numerous projects fail’; and ‘G7 infrastructure plan to rival Belt and Road Initiative could force Chinese firms to ‘match global standards’’. (None of which surprises someone who years ago gave a presentation titled ‘One Belt, One Road?’)

Moreover, China’s grand strategy actually apes Mahan instead, who said the ‘World Island’ doesn’t matter: coastal areas and oceans do. Ironically, Byron and Shelley would have shared Mahan’s thoughts, through an opium fog, even though they lived before him, because that was the British grand strategy before it was the American or the Chinese. And it can be anyone’s again.

Even the far east of the West such as Australia, whose focus on Xanadu is all about the sad passing of Olivia Newton-John, is now aware of these ‘big picture’ issues. The US is passing bills to try to bring back high-tech industry, and regulations to stop China advancing in the same field. Europe is rearming, and talking about changing its environmental regulations to allow it to dig for home-sourced lithium, cobalt, and graphite. In short, things are starting to stir.

Moreover, rates are going to continue to rise to keep a lid on inflation and, whisper it, to keep capital flowing to the West. The RBNZ is seen going another 50bps today, despite signs of its housing market slowing sharply, though we will look to see if they back another two 50s after that to take rates to 4%. Expect the same trend from the Fed despite the poor US housing data seen twice this week(?) Let’s wait for the latest minutes later today and see. That said, Australia’s new monthly CPI measure sends the message that ‘local inflation has peaked’ according to Bloomberg: and the RBA are still among the least willing to wake up and smell the coffee despite their being replete with commodities making them a geopolitical winner.

In short, the West has made enormous strategic errors, is suffering for it, and will continue to. But that doesn’t mean it can’t get its act together long-term under the sudden realisation of the fight it is in. We’ve been here before, after all.

Churchill, writing on June 5, 1938 noted:

“There is at the present an almost total absence of defence… We have not got a dozen modern anti-aircraft guns in the country…. it is a delusion to think that for the next two or three years there will be any contribution to our defence from [scientists]. As to the R.A.F., it is at present less than one-third of the German Air Force, and the rate of production is at present less than one-third… The Germans know our position very accurately, and it is our own people who are living in a ‘Fool’s Paradise’.”

Yet the British turned it round to win WW2 – albeit with US and then USSR help after 1941. Then again, where is the British pound trading today?

The UK, and the West, must focus on the structural ‘Heartland’ challenge –however flawed that rival also is– and now scarce resources. That is what economics is supposed to be about: and it does NOT involve cutting interest rates to prop up meme-stonks, pictures of monkeys wearing sunglasses, frivolous consumption, rentier housing markets, or the price of commodities the West is still reliant on from “multipolar” rivals.

Neither is it about tax cuts. Churchill never said,  “All I have to offer you is blood, sweat, and tears, lower taxes, and higher house prices.”

There is me going down my own ‘Escobar’ path, perhaps. But I leave the last word to Shelley – and feel free to interpret it however you want:

“I met a traveller from an antique land,

Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone

Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,

Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown

And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command,

Tell that its sculptor well those passions read

Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,

The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.

And on the pedestal these words appear:

‘My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings: Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!’

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay,

Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,

The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0160 DOWN  0.0008 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 135.15   UP 0.857 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2066 DOWN   0.0026

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.64 POINTS OR .45%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 91.93 PTS OR 0.46% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.26%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 91.93 PTS OR  0.46% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS  OR .45% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.26% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 353.86 OR 1.23%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1769.15

silver:$19.84

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.66  UP 27  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.12% UP 14  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.195% UP 1    AND 6/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.22%// UP 13   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.30  UP 15   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.0845% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0168  DOWN  .0001   or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 135/42 UP 1.134  OR YEN DOWN 113  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2043  DOWN .0052 OR 52 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0079 OR 79 BASIS pts  to 1.2925

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7810  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7960

TURKISH LIRA:  17.96  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.195

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.900% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.155 UP 4  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.70 UP 31 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 19.85 PTS OR  0.26%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 284.67 POINTS OR 2.05%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 67.10PTS OR 1.02% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 82.100 OR 0.96%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 265.83 PTS OR  1.16%

WTI Oil price 86.71  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.50 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.34  UP 0  AND 56/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.0845

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0183 DOWN .0000     OR  0 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2088 UP .0014  or  14 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.02  UP .738//YEN DOWN 74 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2906 UP 0.0060 (CDN dollar,DOWN  60   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 87.60

Brent OIL:  93.32

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.893 UP 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.146  UP 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.96

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.75  UP 0 AND   15/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 171,29 PTS OR 0.50 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 164.35 PTS OR 1.21%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.09 UP 0.40 PTS (2.03)%

GLD: $164,35 DOWN $1.07 OR 0.65%

SLV/ $18.57 DOWN 32 CENTS OR 1.72%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Dump As Short-Squeeze Ammo Runs Dry At Critical Technical Level

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 04:00 PM

After an ugly overnight session turned uglier at the cash equity open, the US majors all spiked on the FOMC Minutes – for no good reason – then puked it all back into the close to end the day down relatively hard. Small Caps were the worst with the Dow the prettiest horse in the glue factory (but still lower on the day)…

The S&P 500 tagged its 200DMA today and reversed…

And for those who were alive in 2008 and trading stocks, here’s a reminder of what happened after the S&P tagged its 200DMA then…

It appears the ammo for the short-squeeze is running dry…

Source: Bloomberg

And meme stock mania appears to have also lost its appeal…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold across the board today with the belly underperforming. The long- and short-end of the curve were the least ugly horses in the glue factory despite an ugly 20Y auction. Notably Treasury yields dropped significantly after the FOMC Minutes…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield traded up to its 100DMA again today, but remains well below the 3.00% level…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended the recent gains, erasing all of the post-CPI losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto sold off today with Bitcoin back below $23500…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended higher on the day with WTI roller-coastering around $87-88…

Gold closed back below $1800 once again…

Finally, “You Are Here”…

Source: Bloomberg

I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MEETING IN FULL

FOMC Minutes: Anticipation For “Rate Increases” But Risk Fed Could Tighten “More Than Necessary”; Financial Conditions Already “Tightened Notably”

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 02:14 PM

As we wrote in our preview to the Minutes from the July FOMC, expectations were wide ranging: on one hand the minutes were expected to detail the Fed’s dovish breakaway from forward guidance (as the Fed, like the BOE, finally admitted it has no clue what will happen next week let alone net year). On the other, the market is looking for clues on the rate path and the terminal rate… or in other words, forward guidance.

Well, those hoping for some glimpse into what’s coming got just that when the Fed revealed moments ago that while “Fed Officials Judged Moving to Restrictive Stance Was Required” as “inflation was “unacceptably high” and inflationary pressures as broad based” and officials also “Judged That Bulk of Tightening Effect Yet to Be Felt” while “Playing Down Lower Commodity Prices Cooling Inflation”, there was a rather dovish twist in that nany Fed officials saw a risk to over-tightening, because of constant changes in the economic environment and the lag in the meffect of monetary policy, saying: “the committee could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability” and furthermore,  officials saw a “slower pace of rate hikes at some point.”

The question, of course, is when?

Here are some more highlights from the minutes:

POLICY

  • Several of the participants who commented on issues related to financial stability noted that, on balance, asset valuations had eased from elevated levels in recent months.
  • A few participants mentioned the need to strengthen the oversight and regulation of certain types of nonbank financial institutions.
  • Participants generally judged that the bulk of the effects on real activity had yet to be felt because of lags associated with the transmission of monetary policy, and that while a moderation in economic growth should support a return of inflation to 2 percent, the effects of policy firming on consumer prices were not yet apparent in the data.
  • A number of participants posited that some of the effects of policy actions and communications were showing up more rapidly than had historically been the case, because the expeditious removal of policy accommodation and supporting communications already had led to a significant tightening of financial conditions.

RATES

  • All participants agreed 75bps interest rate was appropriate.
  • Many officials saw Fed could tighten more than necessary.
  • Some participants said policy rate would have to reach a sufficiently restrictive level to control inflation and remain there for some time.
  • Participants concurred future rate hikes would depend on incoming information, judged that at some point it would be appropriate to slow pace of increases.

INFLATION

  • Participants agreed there was little evidence inflation pressures were subsiding and that it would take considerable time for situation to be resolved.
  • Participants emphasized that slowdown in demand would play an important role in reducing inflation.
  • Participants noted recent readings on inflation expectations were consistent with long-run expectations anchored at 2%.
  • Participants noted that expectations of inflation were an important influence on the behavior of actual inflation and stressed that moving to an appropriately restrictive stance of policy was essential for avoiding an unanchoring of inflation expectations.
  • Participants judged that a significant risk facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the Committee’s resolve to adjust the stance of policy sufficiently.

ECONOMY

  • Participants said strength of labor market suggests economic activity stronger than implied by weak Q2, raising possibility of upward GDP revision.

BANKS

  • Several participants noted that capital at some of the largest banks had declined in recent quarters.
  • These participants emphasized that it was important that the largest banks have strong capital positions and that appropriate settings of regulatory and supervisory tools can help deliver that outcome.
  • A couple of these participants highlighted the potential role that usage of the countercyclical capital buffer could play in this context.

As Bloomberg notes, inflation remains top of mind for the Fed despite market inflation expectations receding: there were 108 inflation mentions in the July minutes, a recent high up from 90 at the June meeting. Meanwhile 2-year breakevens fell from 4.42% at the June Fed meeting to 3.35% at the July meeting and have continued to fall to just 2.74% today.

But perhaps the most important comment for markets was the following:

Participants noted that the Committee’s credibility with regard to bringing inflation back to the 2 percent objective, together with its forceful policy actions and communications, had already contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions that would likely help reduce inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand.

This, as we noted, is a ridiculous lie since the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions index has eased by almost a record amount in the 20-some days since the July FOMC.

The Fed’s comment however makes it clear: the pivot has begun, at least until the next surge higher in gasoline prices, and as Vanda Research strategist Viraj Patel writes, “we’re at halftime in the Fed hiking cycle. And the Fed think the second half will be a lot less aggressive. Good for beaten-down risk sentiment. If the Fed hikes for longer… very possible… it’ll be because of strength in US economy. Rates & equities grind higher?

In summary, here is the Minutes takeaway by Bloomberg…

  • Many Fed officials saw a risk to over-tightening, because of constant changes in the economic environment and the lag in the effect of monetary policy, saying: “the committee could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability”
  • Fed officials saw inflation as “unacceptably high” and inflationary pressures as broad based
  • While recent declines in gas prices would help in the short term, they noted that “declines in the prices of oil and some other commodities could not be relied on as providing a basis for sustained lower inflation, as these prices could quickly rebound”
  • All Fed officials backed raising rates by 75 basis points at July meeting
  • “With inflation remaining well above the committee’s objective, participants judged that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the committee’s legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability”

… and by us:

Minutes TLDR: Fed only cares about gasoline prices and as long as these are flat or dropping, the S&P can go to 5000

But the best summary comes from Steve Chiavarone of Federate Hermes who said the Fed is trying to have it both ways:

“On the one hand they are calling inflation unacceptably high and inflationary pressures broad-based. On the other they are hinting at slowing the pace of rate hikes, thus allowing financial conditions to ease, well before there is any real evidence of a meaningful move back towards there 2% target. This leaves the market confused as to whether the Fed is likely to continue to raise rates well into 2023.”

ii) USA DATA//

USA headline retails sales as excepted due to gas price drops but core rises (ex Autos gas )

(zerohedge)

US Headline Retail Sales Drop In July, Core Soars

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 08:37 AM

A slow-down in headline retail price growth was expected due to falling gas prices, but ex-Autos/Gas, sales (notional remember) were expected to rise.

Analysts were almost right with the headline actually unchanged MoM (below the +0.1% expectation) but ex-Autos up 0.7% MoM vs +0.4% expected.

Source: Bloomberg

So pretty much everything was higher apart from autos, gasoline, and general merchandise stores…

Notional retail sales have not fallen for 7 straight months which pushed the YoY retail sales growth higher for both headline and core…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, after 4 straight months ‘real’ retail sales drops, real retail sales were flat in July (this is core retail sales minus CPI – which admittedly is not apples to oranges but is good enough for government work to get an idea of the actual changes in spending)…

Source: Bloomberg

Furthermore, notional retail sales are increasingly being funded by soaring credit card debt – not exactly a sign of confidence by the consumer; more a sign of desperation to maintain a standard of living.

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Interesting: a record number of homebuyers are walking away from contracts.  Builders are facing a glut of unsold houses.

(zerohedge)

Record Number Of Homebuyers Walk Away From Contracts As Builders Reel Amid Glut Of Unsold Houses

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 06:55 PM

Between cratering homebuilder and homerbuyer confidence

… record low home affordability

… a record number of new listing with price cuts (amid the collapse in demand).

… plunging housing starts…

… and so on, as the recent surge in mortgage rates has effectively pushed the housing market into a recession, which is now so widespread that 63,000 home-purchase agreements were called off in July, equal to 16% of homes that went under contract that month. According to Redfin, that’s the highest percentage on record, and only the brief spike during the covid crash – which the promptly reversed – was worse. It’s up from a revised rate of 15% one month earlier and 12.5% one year earlier.

The housing market is slowing as higher mortgage rates sideline many prospective homebuyers. With competition declining, the house hunters who are still in the market are enjoying newfound bargaining power, a striking contrast from just a few months ago, when buyers often had to pull out every stop in order to win. Today’s buyers are more likely to utilize contract contingencies that allow them to back out without financial penalty if something goes wrong. And with an increasing number of homes to choose from, they’re also more likely to call a deal off if a seller refuses to bring the price down or make requested repairs—a situation that has become increasingly common given that sellers are still adjusting to the cooling market.

“Homes are sitting on the market longer now, so buyers realize they have more options and more room to negotiate. They’re asking for repairs, concessions and contingencies, and if sellers say no, they’re backing out and moving on because they’re confident they can find something better,” said Heather Kruayai, a Redfin real estate agent in Jacksonville, FL. “Buyers are also skittish because they’re afraid a potential recession could cause home prices to drop. They don’t want to end up in a situation where they purchase a home and it’s worth $200,000 less in two years, so some are opting to wait in hopes of buying when prices are lower.”

Alexis Malin, another Redfin agent in Jacksonville, warns that there’s no guarantee buyers will be able to find better deals in the future. Annual home-price growth has started to slow—to 8% today from 17% a year ago—but prices are still on the rise and Redfin economists don’t expect them to crash.

“Some buyers who are backing out of deals have this mindset that the market is crashing and they’ll be able to get a home for $100,000 less in six months. That’s not necessarily the case,” she said. “Homes in many parts of Florida are still selling for a pretty penny, so I warn my buyers that the grass might not actually be greener on the other side.”

Some buyers may also be backing out due to 5%-plus mortgage rates. Those who started their search months ago, when rates were closer to 3%, may be realizing the type of home they wanted before is now out of budget since monthly mortgage payments have soared nearly 40% year over year.

“Home-purchase cancellations may begin to taper off as sellers get used to a slower-paced market,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Sellers have already begun to lower their prices after putting their homes on the market. They’ll likely start pricing their properties lower from the get-go and become increasingly open to negotiations.”

And just to confirm how bad the US housing market is, even the morbidly slow rating agency Fitch Ratings said the likelihood of a severe downturn in US housing has increased (although since rating agencies are never allowed to rock the boat, it said that its rating case scenario provides for a more moderate pullback that includes a mid-single-digit decline in housing activity in 2023, and further pressure in 2024.) Fitch also notes that although it recently affirmed the ratings and Stable Outlooks for our US homebuilder portfolio, “ratings could face pressure under a more pronounced downturn scenario that would likely include housing activity falling roughly 30%, or more, over a multi-year period and 10% to 15% declines in home prices.”

* *  *

The biggest losers from the latest housing crash aren’t sellers however, but rather homebuilders, who are suddenly finding themselves with a glut of unsold houses.

As Bloomberg notes, with this year’s surge in mortgage rates tossing buyers to the sidelines, the waitlists for new houses are gone  and new-home sellers – such as Kevin Brown, who works just south of Houston, are on the front lines of a massive shift. While Brown used to have back-to-back appointments, buyers now just trickle in to his Saratoga Homes sales office. Meanwhile, he’s got 55 houses under construction and five that are complete, all without deals.

“There’s a bit of pressure on us,” Brown said. “Builders have got to hit goals and make their profit, and they don’t like inventory just sitting on the ground.”

An abrupt halt to the pandemic housing boom has left builders that started construction months ago scrambling to adapt. The US supply of new homes relative to sales in June was the highest since the midst of the last crash in 2010. And by early July, buyer traffic to homebuilder websites and sales offices had plunged to the lowest level for the month since 2012, according to a survey of builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders.

The new-home pile up underscores a broader shift that’s wreaking havoc in the market. A national housing shortage contributed to years of bidding wars and desperation among buyers who bid up prices to record levels for fear of missing out. But this year’s surge in borrowing costs has now pushed affordability to a breaking point and eased some of the scarcity.

At the same time, the stage is set for longer-term supply constraints as builders pull back. A decade of underbuilding and a bulging population of young people aging into homeownership threatens to prolong the affordability squeeze.

“Despite the fact that there aren’t enough housing units in the country, builders are not willing to take the gamble that’s required to build them,” said Jerry Howard, chief executive officer of the homebuilders group. “They’re afraid that, in a recessionary environment, they won’t be able to sell them.”

In June, 824,000 single-family homes were under construction in the US, more than at any time since October 2006, according to an NAHB analysis of government data. Unsold inventory has ballooned in part because of supply-chain disruptions and labor constraints that created bottlenecks in the production pipeline.

Now, with the economy entering a recession, or already in one, builders are cutting back on starts, trying to avoid having too many completed homes sitting empty. They’re also applying for fewer building permits, which for single-family homes fell in June to a two-year low, according to data from the government.

Not every market is cooling fast. But the change is stark in the pandemic boomtowns where builders piled in to meet demand for out-of-state arrivals, who often bid up prices beyond the reach of locals.

“It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, which tracks new-home production. “We may see a period where supply may actually exceed demand for a while in some of the markets that were the most feverish over the past two years.”

Boise, Idaho, is one of those areas where a pandemic bubble is bursting. Remote workers arrived from pricier states such as California, seeking open spaces and fewer virus restrictions. But now Covid restlessness is giving way to fears that the Federal Reserve’s cure for inflation — higher rates — will tip the US into a recession.

Idaho’s biggest builder, CBH Homes, has had about a third of buyers cancel contracts in the past few months, nearly twice the level at the start of the year, according to Corey Barton, the company’s president. He’s got 200 unsold finished homes, compared with 75 at the end of last year, and said he’ll probably surpass the 350 he was left with after the last crash 15 years ago. In a sense the inventory was there all along — it was just hidden, he says.

Builders had been deliberately holding back houses, waiting until they were a couple months from completion before releasing them for sale. That’s because they couldn’t build fast enough to meet sky-high demand. By waiting, they could charge the current market price as materials costs climbed.

But now, the market is getting flooded with listings, Barton said. Homes are finishing or are getting listed earlier in the construction process.

Meanwhile, CBH has cut starts by about half. Subcontractors involved in the early stages of construction, digging out basements or pouring foundations are already feeling it, he said.

“The movement from out of state caused a false market,” Barton said. “We have to accept things for the way they are. It’s going to get tough.”

Builders of new homes find themselves in an especially trick spot, because while most traditional sellers can afford to wait or even postpone a sale if conditions deteriorate, builders will have to discount until they find the market-clearing price, said Benjamin Keys, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

“The homebuilders have an understandable incentive to pull back right now and Americans need more affordable housing,” Keys said.

At Saratoga Homes’s Glendale Lakes sales office, marketing director Christina Nuon said she’s making cold calls to agents and hosting happy hour events to boost sales. The company has a menu of incentives to bring down costs for its entry-level buyers, from $12,000 toward closing costs to a subsidized 30-year mortgage rate of just under 4%.

“Buying down rates, it’s kind of going to be our incentive probably from now on out,” Nuon said. “Just because that’s the only way we can help buyers. We can’t reduce the price any lower.”  

Brown, the sales consultant, says the incentives have helped put a dent in inventory: “I am trying to find one buyer at a time,” he said, “and not get overwhelmed by what I have coming up.”

He worries that at the end of a potential recession, continued underbuilding will help keep prices elevated.

END

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

A good indicator that the economy in the uSA  is in real trouble as Target’s inventory glut compounds with consume spending shrinking

(zerohedge)

Target Slumps Amid Growing Inventory Glut As Consumer Spending Continues To Shrink

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Unlike Walmart, whose stock yesterday soared the most in years after reporting solid earnings which beat (repeatedly slashed) expectations and even raised its (dismal) guidance, following not one but two kitchen-sinking earning warnings, its top bricks and mortar competitor, Target, did not fare quite as well and its stock slumped after the retail giant reported profit which badly lagged Wall Street estimates in the second quarter, even as the retailer ratcheted up the pressure on its fiscal second half by sticking with its forecast of a dramatic rebound in its results, almost as if the bottom half of the US population isn’t in a staggering recession. In other words, the company has bet its reputation and credibility that there will be a second half rebound.

Here is a summary of what Target reported:

  • Sales $25.65 billion, +3.3% y/y, missing estimates of $25.84 billion
    • Customer transactions +2.7%
    • Average transaction amount 0%, missing estimates of +0.15%
  • Adjusted EPS 39c vs. $3.64 y/y, missing estimates of 72c and also missing the lowest Bloomberg estimate.
  • Comparable sales +2.6%, missing estimates of +2.84%
  • Gross margin 21.5% vs. 30.4% y/y, missing estimates 23.9%
  • Operating margin 1.2%, missing estimates of 2.41%
  • Operating income $321 million, missing estimates $534.9 million
    • EBIT $329 million, -87% y/y
    • EBITDA $979 million, -68% y/y, estimate $1.19 billion
  • Digital sales as share of total sales 17.9% vs. 17% y/y
  • Total stores 1,937, estimate 1,947
  • SG&A expense $5.00 billion, estimate $5.15 billion

Net earnings were just $183 million, compared with $1.8 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose, boosted by strong sales of food and beverage, beauty and household items and more shopper visits but missed expectations. Comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels operating at least 12 months, rose 2.6% from a year earlier; this too missed expectations.

Adjusted earnings tumbled to 39 cents a share during the three months ending July 30, hit by an aggressive push to reduce inventory. That number trailed the lowest analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

Operating margin declined to 1.2% in the quarter ended July 30, Target said in its quarterly earnings report Wednesday. In June the company predicted it would shrink to roughly 2% for the period as it rapidly worked through a glut of inventory. The company cited a swift reversal of buying behavior, with shoppers cutting spending on discretionary items as inflation pressured their spending and product shipments arrived late.

The decision to quickly move through excess inventory “had a meaningful short-term impact on our financial results,” Target Chief Executive Brian Cornell said on a call with reporters. He said the company didn’t want to spend years dealing with excess inventory, potentially degrading the customer and worker experience; however it looks like the company is still not done eliminating said excess inventory.

“While the company is planning cautiously for the remainder of the year, current trends support the company’s prior guidance for full-year revenue growth”, CEO Brian Cornell said, adding that “today the vast majority of the financial impact of these inventory actions is now behind us.” The company expects operating margin to grow to 6% in the second half of the year. Good luck with that.

“The vast majority of our inventory right-sizing costs have already been incurred,” Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke said in a briefing with reporters. “We feel really good about our inventory position heading into the back half of the year.”

Remarkably, despite the crushing quarterly earnings, the company said that it still sees full-year revenue growth “in the low- to mid-single digit range”, suggesting it now sees second half consumer spending getting supercharged somehow. How that happens is a mystery.

The comments were similar to Walmart which said Tuesday that sales rose as prices rose, and it continues to see signs that shoppers are reducing spending on nonfood items as prices rise. The company has discounted goods to move through its own glut of inventory as people spend more on food and other goods. Those efforts ate into last quarter’s profits and will continue in the current quarter, executives said Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, Home Depot said that sales rose in the most recent quarter, in part due to higher prices, while traffic fell. Walmart said sales rose, also helped by higher prices, while traffic increased 1%.

That said, target executives said traffic gains and overall strength of its core shoppers are evidence that the retailer can put the inventory issues behind it. The retailer believes it is gaining market share by unit sales in all major categories, executives said. “We’ve got a guest that is still out shopping,” said Mr. Cornell.

Target executives said the company is cautiously buying discretionary categories that it has worked to unload in recent months, such as furniture and some apparel, and buying aggressively in categories like food that shoppers are spending more on.

At the same time, the retailer has imported some seasonal goods early to make sure shelves are stocked. “We continue to see a choppy supply-chain environment,” Finance Chief Michael Fiddelke said. “You will see us continue to take that approach in the back half of the year.”

Target’s inventory rose nearly 10% in the second quarter to $15.3 billion as it prepares for fall and holiday shopping, he said. Revenue rose 3.5% to $26 billion. The retailer maintained previous estimates for the full year of percentage revenue growth in the low-to-mid single digits.

“The company reduced its inventory exposure in discretionary categories while investing in rapidly growing frequency categories,” Target said in the statement.

Target’s latest miss follows a string of cuts to the company’s profit forecast. In March, the Minneapolis-based retailer said operating income would amount of 8% of sales this year. In May, the company lowered that to 6%. In early June, it said it would attain the 6% goal only in the second half — the same line in the sand it maintained in its latest earnings statement, even as it plunged to just 1.2% in Q2.

Looking at the sellside reactions to the company earnings, Citi sees the “door open” for more additional cuts, while DA Davidson says “this should be the bottom.” Still-high inventory is also a hot topic among Wall Street analysts.

Citi (buy, $184)

  • Investors won’t like combo of a 2Q miss and no reduction to second-half operating margin expectations because it “leaves the door open for more disappointments,” writes analyst Paul Lejuez
  • Even with cutting guidance on June 7, TGT still “significantly” missed its lowered forecast, mostly due to gross margin pressure resulting from efforts to “clear inventory,” plus higher freight/transportation costs, although TGT doesn’t provide “‘a lot of detail about what changed vs its 6/7 expectations”
  • Inventory levels are still “extremely high” despite management noting that it has meaningfully reduced exposure to discretionary categories
  • Focus on call will be around inventory composition and current trends

DA Davidson  (buy, PT $185)

  • “We knew TGT’s second quarter would be down significantly,” and disappointing 2Q operating margins and adjusted EPS aren’t as important as the fact that TGT aggressively worked to right size its inventory, writes analyst Michael Baker
  • Maintaining 2H guidance should support shares as it “alleviates fears that yet another guide down was coming even as full year estimates will come down on the 2Q22 miss”

Baird (outperform, PT $180)

  • “An ugly margin quarter, though directionally as expected,” writes analyst Peter Benedict
  • Says TGT is “making progress” on reducing exposure to discretionary categories — via markdowns, cutting fall receipts — and management reaffirmed its prior 2H EBIT margin guidance of ~6%

RBC (outperform, PT $231)

  • This was a “tough quarter,” writes analyst Steven Shemesh
  • Says investors should focus on 2 questions: 1) Are we past the worst of the problem?; and 2) What’s the path/timeline back to 7-8% operating margins?
  • “If we can get conviction on these two questions, we believe investors will be willing to look through near-term volatility,” he says

Navellier & Associates

  • “Although TGT had a big earnings miss because it was dumping overstocked inventory, the company was optimistic about the upcoming months and holidays,” founder and Chief Investment Officer Louis Navellier tells Bloomberg in an emailed statement
  • “Bottom line is TGT will likely surprise moving forward, especially in the wake of WMT’s upbeat sales outlook”
  • Navellier expects TGT shares to recover over the next few days

Wells Fargo (overweight, PT $195)

  • “It’s clear the cost to clear excess product was even higher than management anticipated, and there is still plenty of work to do,” writes analyst Edward Kelly
  • Still, the 2Q “pain” should help the back half of the year, he adds, noting the canceled $1.5 billion of fall receipts, though acknowledges the high inventory may suggest added markdown risk in 2H
  • “Overall, there were puts and takes to the Q2 results and near-term uncertainty remains, but we saw nothing to change our positive view around the 2023 recovery story”
  • Tells clients to use weakness to buy shares

Target shares were down about 2.3% premarket after, erasing an even bigger drop.

SWAMP STORIES

Congressman: “Tyranny” Is Coming “Right Into Everyone’s Living Room Very Very Shortly”

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

GOP Pennsylvania Representative Scott Perry warned Sunday that everyday Americans should now plan for “tyranny” to enter their homes in the form of federal agents if they refuse to play nice with the authorities.

Perry, the House Freedom Caucus chair, revealed how the FBI recently seized his phone, just hours after the feds raided President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago complex.

“A day after the raid on the president’s home FBI agents showed up when I was traveling with my family, my wife and our two small children, my in-laws, extended family,” Perry stated in an appearance on Fox News.

The Congressman related how the feds “showed up and demanded my cell phone they said they were going to image it they were not going to search it and and then they eventually did return it.” 

Perry, who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, further declared to “have always supported law enforcement. I always have, we have revered the FBI, but this is an abuse of power.”

“There’s been no accountability,” Perry continued, explaining that “James Comey, the director of the FBI used classified information improperly to get a second special counsel, no, no, no accountability for that.”

“Whether it’s John Eastman, whether it’s Scott Perry, whether it’s President Trump, and with passing a bill that will pay for hiring of 87,000 IRS agents, tyranny is going to come right into everyone’s living room very, very shortly,” Perry proclaimed.

While the 87,000 figure is disputed, the Senate last week approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, with $45.6 billion for “enforcement”.

“This is about intimidating anyone who refuses to bend the knee to the narrative,” the Congressman further warned.

“This is an abuse of power,” Perry claimed, “and of course they’re using these taxes tactics to intimidate people to coerce people.”

Referring to Hillary Clinton, Perry said “People that BleachBit their their phones and hit him with hammers, smash them with hammers and those types of things have something to hide. People that keep the same phone a year and a half after the election aren’t worried about what’s on their phone, and so that’s me, but apparently they want to destroy me politically.”

“Anybody that doesn’t bend the knee, that isn’t intimidated, that isn’t parroting the narrative is now subject to these kind of third world Banana Republic tactics politically,” Perry stressed.

Elsewhere during the interview, Perry told viewers that “It should be pretty apparent to anybody that’s been alive for the past 5 years that the Biden family is completely compromised by the Communist Party of China.”

* * *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjws

END

Eric Trump Says He’ll Release FBI Raid Surveillance Tape

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump’s son Eric revealed that the family will release surveillance tapes that show FBI agents raiding his Mar-a-Lago property last week.

“Will you—you still have the surveillance tape, is that correct? Will you—are you allowed to share that with the country?” Fox News host Sean Hannity asked Eric Trump on Monday night.

The younger Trump replied, “Absolutely, Sean,” adding that the video will be released “at the right time.” He said that law enforcement officers, including FBI agents, should wear body cameras for total transparency.

That’s why cops wear body cams. They don’t tell you to turn off cameras—they want transparency, and that’s not what happened here,” Trump said, referring to the raid.

In an interview with the Daily Mail last week, Eric Trump said that lawyers were told by FBI agents to turn off security cameras in Mar-a-Lago. But they didn’t, and a lawyer for Donald Trump, Alina Habba, later revealed that the former president and family watched the FBI raid via CCTV cameras last week.

Another lawyer, Christina Bobb, told Real America’s Voice last week that surveillance cameras were turned off for a short period of time while the FBI agents spoke with the former president’s lawyers. However, she said the family saw “the whole thing,” referring to the raid, while they were in New York.

Meanwhile, Bobb recalled to the outlet that she was “stuck in the parking lot” of Mar-a-Lago and was “there to collect paper and answer questions.”

The FBI and others from the Federal Government would not let anyone, including my lawyers, be anywhere near the areas that were rummaged and otherwise looked at during the raid on Mar-a-Lago,” former President Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.

Unsealed Documents

Following the raid, the Department of Justice and FBI have remained relatively tight-lipped about why the agents searched Mar-a-Lago or what they were investigating. Three days after the raid, Attorney General Merrick Garland told a news conference that he personally signed off on the FBI’s attempt to obtain a warrant, which was approved by U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart.

Republicans and Trump have called on the agencies to unseal an affidavit in the case. The move would show why the FBI launched the raid.

The warrant and property receipt were unsealed a day after Garland’s news conference, showing that FBI agents recovered several boxes of allegedly classified or top-secret documents and other material. It’s not clear what the documents entailed.

Read more here…

END

14 FBI Whistleblowers Have Come Forward: Rep. Jordan

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 10:15 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Fourteen FBI whistleblowers have come forward to provide information to Republican congressional investigations, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said on Aug. 14, about a week after the FBI raided former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

“Fourteen FBI agents have come to our office as whistleblowers, and they are good people,” Jordan told Fox News. “There are lots of good people in the FBI. It’s the top that is the problem.”

Some of these good agents are coming to us, telling us … what’s going on—the political nature now of the Justice Department … talking about the school board issue, about a whole host of issues,” he added.

Two months ago, Jordan said that six FBI whistleblowers approached the committee. Two came forward about a memo related to alleged violence and intimidation at school board meetings and four in connection to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach. In the Senate, meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said in July that whistleblowers had come to his office to provide information, including disclosures relating to investigations into Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings.

It’s becoming a well-worn trail of agents who say this has got to stop, and thank goodness for them and that American people recognize it, and I believe they’re going to make a big change on Nov. 8,” Jordan said, referring to the midterm elections.

In June, Jordan sent a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray warning that several former FBI officials were coming forward, while alleging the agency is “purging” employees who have conservative views.

In one such example, the FBI targeted and suspended the security clearance of a retired war servicemember who had disclosed personal views that the FBI was not being entirely forthcoming about the events of January 6,” Jordan wrote in a statement. “The FBI questioned the whistleblower’s allegiance to the United States despite the fact that the whistleblower honorably served in the United States military for several years—including deployments in Kuwait and Iraq—valiantly earning multiple military commendation medals.”

It comes as Republicans stepped up calls on Aug. 14 for the release of an FBI affidavit showing the justification for its seizure of documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.

Read more here…

END

Liz Cheney voted out of Congress.

(zerohedge)

Neogone: Liz Cheney Voted Out Of Congress, Trump Takes Victory Lap

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 10:24 PM

Update 2020ET: In a widely expected outcome, former President Donald Trump’s highest-profile GOP critic, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, has been voted out of Congress.

Her challenger, Harriet Hageman, was ahead by more than 30% with 13% of the votes counted – enough for NBC News to call it for her.

Cheney, the daughter of former vice president Dick Cheney, had been the #3 ranked Republican in the House – easily winning her last election in 2020. Things changed, however, when she became one of 10 Republicans that voted to impeach Trump – who Democrats accused of inciting the January 6th riot. She later joined the January 6th committee, on which she currently services as Vice Chair.

And look at what happened to the rest of the anti-Trump Republicans who voted to impeach:

“Congratulations to Harriet Hageman on her great and very decisive WIN in Wyoming,” Trump said in a statement on Truth Social. “This is a wonderful result for America, and a complete rebuke of the Unselect Committee of political Hacks and Thugs. Liz Cheney should be ashamed of herself, the way she acted, and her spiteful, sanctimonious words and actions towards others. Now she can finally disappear into the depths of political oblivion where, I am sure, she will be much happier than she is right now. Thank you WYOMING!”

*  *  *

If recent polls are any indication, neocon Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is about to lose her seat in today’s primaries, after going on a poorly-received crusade against former President Donald Trump.

In one recent poll, Cheney challenger Harriet Hageman – who disputed the legitimacy of the 2020 US election – was leading Cheney by nearly 30 points. Of note, 70% of Wyoming voters chose Trump in 2020 – the highest percentage of any state in the nation.

Cheney, 56, sparked conservative backlash against her by choosing to die on hill of election fraud and the January 6th committee, of which she’s the vice chair. Unsurprisingly, her warmongering father’s laughable campaign ad  in which he said there’s ‘never been a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump’ didn’t do Liz any favors.

“She’s almost certainly toast,” said American University political scientist, David Barker. “My guess is that she knew that the second she decided to really join the Jan. 6 committee and pursue the president in that way.”

“She hasn’t just been kind of a passive member of the committee,” he added. “She’s been really leading the whole charge and doing so in the most provocative and high-profile ways.”

Cheney doesn’t care

“America cannot remain free if we abandon the truth. The lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen is insidious — it preys on those who love their country,” she said in a closing argument campaign video released Thursday. “It is a door Donald Trump opened to manipulate Americans to abandon their principles, to sacrifice their freedom, to justify violence, to ignore the rulings of our courts and the rule of law.”

“This is Donald Trump’s legacy, but it cannot be the future of our nation.”

At least one supporter held out hope, according to the Associated Press.

“I’m still hopeful that the polling numbers are wrong,” said Landon Brown, a Wyoming state representative and vocal Cheney ally. “It’ll be a crying shame really if she does lose. It shows just how much of a stranglehold that Donald Trump has on the Republican Party.”

Her likely defeat on Tuesday has raised speculation over her next move – including a potential run for president in 2024, which she hasn’t ruled out.

If one simply reads the room, however, it’s clear that Cheney would be up against a tide of Trump supporters, who largely view her as a traitor.

“My sense is that if it is [her plan], she’s going to have a long wait,” said Bill Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “I don’t think that Donald Trump supporters will ever forgive her, nor do I think they’re going away.”

“Where else would they go?”

END

Former IRS Whistleblower Says Middle Class Americans Will Be Targeted Under Inflation Reduction Act

TUESDAY, AUG 16, 2022 – 11:05 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A former Internal Revenue Service (IRS) whistleblower has said that the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will see the government target middle-income Americans with increased scrutiny and audits.

William Henck previously worked as a lawyer for the IRS for 20 years until 2017, when he was terminated for allegedly revealing sensitive information to the media about how the IRS had reportedly failed to identify a multi-billion-dollar corporate tax credit scheme involving a source of energy known as burning pulp byproducts, or black liquor.

Speaking to Fox Business, Henck disputed claims by the IRS and other officials who have said that increased funding for the agency under the IRA, which is set to be signed into law by President Joe Biden this week, would only lead to more audits for wealthy millionaires and billionaires and large corporations.

The idea that they’re going to open things up and go after these big billionaires and large corporations is quite frankly [expletive],” Henck said in the interview on Aug. 15. “It’s not going to happen. They’re going to give themselves bonuses and promotions and really nice conferences.”

“The big corporations and the billionaires are probably sitting back laughing right now,” he said, adding that it was “insane” to double the IRS budget.

Henck also said he believes that the agency will go after businesses that don’t have enough money to hire Washington lobbyists.

‘Absolutely Not’ Being Used to Target Middle-Income Americans

The Democrat-controlled House passed the IRA in a strictly party-line vote on Aug. 12. It includes nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, including $45.6 billion for “enforcement.”

A Treasury Department report from May 2021 (pdf) estimated that such an investment would enable the agency to hire roughly 87,000 employees by 2031.

Amid mounting fears, the IRS has said it will “absolutely not” be using the extra money to increase audit scrutiny on small businesses or middle-income Americans.

IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig stated in a letter to members of the Senate on Aug. 4 that the extra resources will instead serve to help the agency in “challenging” areas such as audits of large corporate and global high-net-worth taxpayers.

“These resources are absolutely not about increasing audit scrutiny on small businesses or middle-income Americans,” Rettig wrote in the letter. “As we’ve been planning, our investment of these enforcement resources is designed around the Department of the Treasury’s directive that audit rates will not rise relative to recent years for households making under $400,000.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre have also doubled down on their rhetoric regarding reports about the extra funding being utilized to target middle-income Americans, stating that there would be no new audits for individuals earning less than $400,000 per year.

Henck disagrees.

‘Unlimited Resources And No Accountability’

“There will be considerable incentive to basically to shake down taxpayers, and the advantage the IRS has is they have basically unlimited resources and no accountability, whereas a taxpayer has to weigh the cost of accountants, tax lawyers—fighting something in tax court,” he told Fox Business.

Read more here…

King report

The King Report August 17, 2022 Issue 6824Independent View of the News
Walmart sticks with second-half outlook after earnings beat expectations (7:13 ET)
Earnings per share: $1.77 adjusted vs. $1.62 expected
Revenue: $152.86 billion reported vs. $150.81 billion expected
Walmart’s net income for the quarter rose to $5.15 billion, or $1.88 per share, compared with $4.28 billion, or $1.52 per share a year earlier.
  Same-store sales for Walmart U.S. grew 6.5% in the second quarter, excluding fuel, compared with the year-ago period. That was higher than the 5.9% growth that analysts expected… E-commerce sales rose 12% compared with the year-ago period and 18% on a two-year basis…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q2-2023.html
 
Highlights from WMT’s conference call – CFO John David RaineyWMT is attracting more middle & high-income shoppers due to inflation. ~3/4 of Walmart’s market share gains in food came from customers with annual household incomes of $100K+40% of the $11B of higher inventory reflects increased costs of goods from inflation.Wage inflation “will be with us basically forever
Walmart has “canceled billions of dollars in order to help align inventory levels with expected demand” Inventory is about 15% of WMT’s above the levels that it wantsEPS for 2022 are expected to drop 8% to 10%, excluding divestitures, ups from the 10% to 12% drop it forecast on July 25.“The swings that we’ve seen in consumer behavior have been difficult to predict and the pace at which they’ve happened has been sharp.”Consumers adjusted their food purchases with less spending on higher-priced deli meats and more spending on canned tuna, hot dogs and chicken. Purchases of the company’s private label food brands also grew, with those brands growing twice the rate Walmart saw in the first quarter. 
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon: “We expect inflation to continue to influence the choices that families make… Regardless of the inflation level and as we work through the places we have too much inventory.”… https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/16/business/walmart-earnings/index.html
 
@LizYoungStrat: July housing starts came in at -9.6% vs.  -2.1% est, building permits also negative but better than expectations at -1.3% vs. -3.3% est. Sharpest drop in housing starts since early 2020… although neither compares to the 2007/2008 collapse.
 
US July Industrial Production +0.6% m/m (03% exp); Mfg Production 0.7% (0.3% exp); Capacity Utilization 80.3%, 80.2% was consensus.  Ex- autos, factory production increased 0.3%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-output-increases-first-133458432.html
 
ESUs traded sideways in negative territory from the Asian open until they sank after the NYSE opening.  ESUs hit a bottom of 4278.75 at 10:34 ET.  Then ESUs went vertical for the 2nd consecutive day.   ESUs hit their first peak at 11:58 ET.  After inching higher until 12:19 ET, ESUs retreated until 13:00 ET.
 
As we averred in yesterday’s missive, “Someone wants to push stocks higher to squeeze shorts and expiring August calls.”
 
Then, ESUs rallied from 4306.75 at 13:00 ET to 4327.50 at 14:00 ET.  At the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, August VIX options would finish trading.  We noted in the previous two missives, that Tuesday was the last TRADE Day for August VIX options.  The VIX expiry is today.
 
Guess what happened after the VIX Fix on Tuesday?  ESUs tumbled to 4291.50 by 14:49 ET!  ESUs and stocks then traded sideways until someone juiced ESUs at 15:22 ET. The rally ended in 6 minutes.  Another ESUs manipulation appeared at 15:41 ET; it ended within 5 minutes.  ESUs sank into the close.
 
Median yahoos attributed the late morning rally to Walmart.  This is absurd!  Walmart released results at 7 ET.  ESUs and stocks sank until they bottomed at 10:34 ET – over 3.5 hours later!
 
Apple lays off contract recruiters (~100) in a rare move, as it reins in spending and hiring…  https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/apple-lays-off-contractbased-recruiters-in-hiring-slowdown–bloomberg-432SI-2873896
 
Iran Sends EU Nuclear Deal Response and Signals Pact Is Near
West Texas Intermediate dropped near $87 a barrel, falling as much as 5.7%…
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2022-08-16/iran-sends-eu-nuclear-deal-response-and-signals-pact-is-near-7000626.html
 
US State Department: “We have received Iran’s comments through the EU and are studying them.  We are sharing our views with the EU.”
 
EU weighs up Iranian response to ‘final text’ on nuclear deal
Officials seek to prevent pact’s total collapse and avert fresh crisis
   The main obstacle to an agreement was Iran’s insistence that Joe Biden’s administration provides guarantees relating to the economic benefits Tehran expects to receive from sanctions relief and its concerns that a future US administration could unilaterally abandon the accord… https://www.ft.com/content/b0538fb0-d083-4cbd-84e0-c2499d4a3b96
 
Reuters: A $430B climate plan… Biden is due to sign today aims to incentivize consumers to buy cars that rely on cleaner energy. But eligibility for up to $7,500 in tax credits undercuts environmental goals… incentives to buy electric vehicles are too limiting… The plan includes standards that favor domestic production, like requiring that final assembly take place in North America… https://reut.rs/3plwLtx
 
Biden’s Inflation Bill Made $7,500 Electric Vehicle Tax Credits. Ford and GM Just Raised Their Prices by the Same Amount…  Citing “significant material cost increases and other factors,” Ford’s announcement revealed price hikes between $6,000 and $8,500 for its electric vehicles. The F-150 Lightning Pro, for example, will sell for $46,974 — a $7,000 increase from the $39,947 charged for last year’s model. GM likewise increased the cost of its electric Hummer by $6,250 last month…
https://www.dailywire.com/news/bidens-inflation-bill-made-7500-electric-vehicle-tax-credits-ford-and-gm-just-raised-their-prices-by-the-same-amount
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Two sharp ESU rallies during NYSE trading aided & abetted by expiry manipulation
Oil & gasoline declined again on the prospect of an Iran nuclear deal
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined modestly
The NY Fang+ Index declined 0.68% due to Baidu (-2.42%), Alibaba (-1.65%), and Netflix (-1.37%)
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Has the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation appeared?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4302.75
Previous session High/Low4301.79; 4256.90
 
White House climate official sanctioned by key science body
The National Academy of Sciences has barred Jane Lubchenco, a key White House climate aide, from involvement in NAS publications and activities for five years for violating its code of conduct before joining the administration, the organization said… stems from section 3 of its code of conduct. It states that members “shall avoid those detrimental research practices that are clear violations of the fundamental tenets of research.”… the data underlying the analysis was not the latest available, and because she has a personal relationship with one of the authors (her brother-in-law)…
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/16/white-house-climate-official-sanctioned
 
Social Media Haw Acted More Government Agency Than Private Industry
The Biden administration pressured social media platforms to act as a government agency to silence critics of its rule…  https://www.outkick.com/twitter-government-agency-alex-berenson-biden-social-media/
 
@mschlapp: Of course Joe Biden’s handlers kept him on vacation on the anniversary of his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan that resulted in 13 American soldiers dying, hundreds of Americans stranded, and billions of dollars of military equipment left for the Taliban.
 
@MarketWatch: Shares of AMC Entertainment and GameStop have risen 98.4% and 76%, respectively, over the last three months, compared with the S&P 500 index’s 5.7% rise.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zombie-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-could-feel-the-cash-burn-says-new-constructs-11660675221
 
Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q3 declined to 1.8% from 2.5%.
 
Today is expiration for August VIX options and Weird Wednesday, which normally marks the peak intensity of the upward expiry manipulation.  If stocks are strong into the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, which is the settlement price for August VIX options, be alert for a reversal thereafter.
 
King Report on Monday: Since 2020, when there have been strong rallies into expiry week and guppies have been gluttonous buyers of stocks and options, expiry week starts strong but declines in latter days on guppy liquidation.
 
SPY closed at 529.65.  SPY August 430 calls presaged the rally on Monday & early Tuesday.  However, the volume in that option was 107,932 on Tuesday with most of the volume occurring before ESUs sank.
 
SPY August 425 puts traded 124,404.  SPY August calls above 430 had modest volumes.  The game today will be defined by SPY action above 430 or below 425.  These are the key thresholds.  The NY Fang+ Index decline is a notable event.  Trading sardines are prized stocks for the expiry manipulation.
 
Expected economic data: July Retail Sales 0.1%, ex-Autos -0.1%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.4%; June 1.4% m/m; FOMC Minutes July 27 14:00 ET; Fed Gov Bowman 9:30 & 14:20 ET
 
Expected Retailer earnings: LOW 4.61, TJX .67, TGT .73, BBWI .46
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3959; 100-day MA: 4104; 150-day MA: 4210; 200-day MA: 4326
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,7595; 100-day MA: 32,647; 150-day MA: 33,245; 200-day MA: 33,889
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3810.39 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4164.00 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4284.27 triggers a buy signal
 
Eric Trump says the Trumps will share surveillance tapes of the Mar-a-Lago raid ‘at the right time’
https://news.yahoo.com/eric-trump-says-trumps-share-044734180.html
 
Trump: The RAID was Politics, the Midterm Elections, and 2024. It’s another form of Election CHEATING – That’s all the Radical Left Democrats know what to do. They use the FBI & DOJ to try and dirty up their opponents, but the people of our Country are wise to them like never before…”
 
Our guess is that Trump wants to expose DoJ/FBI venality as close to the Midterms as possible.
 
Team Obama-Biden is repeating the MO of Russiagate: Someone in the Deep State aided and abetted by key Dems leaks a damaging story to the MSM.  Some regimen media outlet runs the dubious story; and the FBI/DoJ use the flimsy story to get search warrants and/or FISA warrants!
Ex- Navy Intel officer @JackPosobiec: The DOJ affidavit is based on that NY Times article Maggie H wrote a while back, mixed in with hearsay and innuendo. That’s why they won’t release it.
(Last week, this is exactly what we opined was the catalyst for the search warrant.)
Judge Reinhart delays decision on releasing Trump search warrant affidavit
Opted to schedule an Aug. 18 hearing to hear in-person arguments for and against…
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/judge-reinhart-delays-decision-releasing-trump-search-warrant-affidavit
 
@newsmax: Alan Dershowitz: “We’re living in an age where progressives and radicals on the left believe you can do anything, you can trash the Constitutionyou can destroy the rule of law as long as the goal is to get Donald Trump. (The fact the McConnell and other RINOs are mum on this speaks volumes!)
 
Boomerang? DOJ admission it over-collected evidence in Trump raid creates new legal drama
Former top FBI official says search appears to have been overly broad and gives Trump lawyers an avenue for appeal.
    Kevin Brock, who served as FBI assistant director for intelligence under former Director Robert Mueller, said the new revelations raise legitimate questions about over-collection of evidence that could lead to significant legal challenges. Trump lawyers are weighing whether to ask a federal court to name a special master to review sensitive documents and protect the president’s 4th amendment, executive and attorney-client privileges… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/doj-admits-it-took-trumps-passports-offers-return-them
 
Trump spox torches CBS News for claiming FBI did not have former president’s passports
O’Donnell, host of “CBS Evening News,”… “According to a DOJ official, the FBI is NOT in possession of former President Trump’s passports,”…  Taylor Budowich, director of communications for the Save America PAC and Donald J. Trump… sharing a screenshot of an email sent earlier in the day by Jay Bratt, an official in the National Security Division of the DOJ… https://t.co/mV9fQQ1U9Y
 
Norah O’Donnell’s ‘desperate’ Trump passport tweet not up to CBS reporting standards
CBS News… has a strict two-source protocolangry CBS sources told The Post. They added that the tweets also made it sound like O’Donnell was calling a former president a “liar.”…
https://nypost.com/2022/08/16/norah-odonnells-passport-tweet-not-up-to-cbs-standards-sources/
 
@bonchieredstate: Understand that the FBI was content to keep lying about the passports via leaks to the press until Trump embarrassed them with that email. That speaks volumes.
 
@JonathanTurley: The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Garland took weeks to approve the application for a search warrant on Mar-a-Lagohttps://wsj.com/articles/merrick-garland-weighed-search-of-trumps-mar-a-lago-for-weeks-11660601292?mod=djemalertNEWS
Yet, the DOJ has argued that vital secrets were at risk and time was of the essence.
 
Rep. Comer: I plan on going to war with some of these federal agencies… as a result of their bias and corruption… “The deep state is real,” Comer stated. “And what we have are these federal bureaucracies that are fighting back. They see the tide is turning. They see the American people are gonna go out in waves — hopefully, in a few months, and vote for a new majority in Congress.”…
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/rep-comer-i-plan-going-war-some-these-federal-agencies
 
@julie_kelly2: Back to Whitmer fednapping – Defense breaking down cash payments made to “Big Dan” the main informant. FBI paid him for 17 weeks of “lost wages” for working full time as informant. (He was truck driver for USPS) He was only paid in cash by FBI… Big Dan again admits by August 2020 there wasn’t a plan to kidnap Whitmer. Defense: There was no plan to kidnap the governor? Big Dan: NoClaim the FBI infiltrated militia group to thwart kidnapping plan is a lie. This operation began in March 2020–no plan 5 months later…
     Defense gets Dan to admit he purchased laptop 3 days before he set up the arrest ruse in Oct 2020 which ended the mission. Dan brought targets to arrest site where FBI Hostage Rescue Team, snipers were at the ready. Dan told men to go to back of his truck where he gave them the lower receiver of a rifle to hold as FBI descended. Agents also used flashbangs.  Dan told the targets they’d be buying military gear from Red, the undercover FBI agent. Sounds like FBI also used MRAP a military tactical vehicle.  THIS IS WHY TOP FBI OFFICIALS MUST ANSWER Qs
 
@lavern_spicer: After tonight there will no longer be anyone with the name Cheney, Bush, Clinton, Obama, Kennedy or McCain in office. Trump killed off ALL these political dynasties in seven years.
 
@IngrahamAngle: Watching the other networks lionize Liz Cheney, whose father they branded a war criminal, is knee slappingly funny.
 
The Clown Prince of Pennsylvania Avenue – “Jared Kushner did more damage to the presidency and the Trump agenda during his four-year reign of error at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue than anyone.”
    Kushner came to the D.C. swamp on the coattails of his wife as… run-of-the-mill liberal New York Democrat with a worldview totally orthogonal to the president… Jared would boast about how he had brought the president back from whatever he considered the brink to be that day—whether it was securing the southern border, leaving NAFTA, or slapping tariffs on China… he was derailing, deterring, and delaying Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda in real-time…
    Ultimately, the biggest failure of the 2020 election was the failure of the Trump campaign itself. The campaign went from the beautifully orchestrated Steve Bannon masterpiece in 2016, with 20 people on Trump Force One barnstorming flyover country, to the ugliest equivalent of Hillary Clinton’s beyond bloated Hindenburg of a campaign in just four years… Brad Parscale (the putative campaign manager) and Kushner himself (the actual campaign manager)… squandered hundreds of millions of dollars on ridiculous baubles like Super Bowl ads and a massively bloated payroll…
    In the final weeks before November 3, the Trump campaign—the most well-funded in history—would have to pull its ad expenditures in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin because it was out of cash; and the Biden campaign would outspend Trump by about $75 million in this critical home stretch by Peter Navarro  https://t.co/O326QMg7wm
 
Merrick Garland Must Address His Role in Dropping Charges Against Capitol Bomber
On June 17, 2009, the Obama Justice Department alarmingly moved to quash Duke’s arrest warrant and dismiss the indictment, without stating any reasons. The motion was summarily granted by Obama-appointed Magistrate Judge Deborah Robinson who falsely signed the dismissal as an Article III U.S. District Court Judge and falsely stated it was based on reasons given by the prosecutor when in fact no reasons were offered
    On January 15, 2014, Chief Judge Merrick Garland summarily dismissed a judicial misconduct complaint against Magistrate Robinson for her unlawful action stating it “lacked sufficient evidence to raise an inference that misconduct has occurred,” when in fact the misconduct was clear when the magistrate signed the order as a District Court Judge and falsely stating it was based on reasons given by the prosecutor when the transcript of the proceedings showed no such reasons were offered..
https://www.nlpc.org/current-projects/merrick-garland-must-address-his-role-in-dropping-charges-against-capitol-bomber/
 
@aaronstrauss: If you want to understand why accurate polling is so difficult and often biased toward Dems, look no further than this UNF survey. They aimed for 31% college-educated, and the raw data gave them **71%** https://t.co/7YFHSuNLIB
 
Minneapolis Will Fire ‘White Teachers’ First – MPS Violates Civil Rights Act
Minority teachers “may be exempted from district-wide layoff[s] outside seniority order,” and will also be given priority during reinstatement…
https://thechalkboardreview.com/report-minneapolis-will-fire-white-teachers-first/
 
‘Woke’ Military Policies to Blame for Recruitment Crisis, Servicemembers Say
The U.S. Army is expected to fall nearly 40,000 troops short of its recruiting goals over the next two years. Fiscal year 2022 is expected to miss the mark by 10,000 troops, while the number in fiscal year 2023 could reach 28,000… this year is on track to be the Army’s worst recruiting year in almost 50 years… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/woke-military-policies-blame-recruitment-crisis-servicemembers-say
 
Sky News: The RAF has effectively paused making job offers to white male recruits in favour of women & ethnic minorities to meet “impossible” diversity targets, sources claim. The head of @RoyalAirForce recruitment has resigned in protest, they said.  https://t.co/JHcu7LbyUW
 
Private Jet Usage “Flies” to Record Highs, Even among Climate Outrage https://t.co/WsXtgBXMkk

Greg Hunter 

Radical Drought Caused by Military Weather Weapons – Dane Wigington

By Greg Hunter On August 16, 2022 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com. 

Last month, climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington predicted “40 million in West would be without water in 2023.”  Looks like the U.S. government is just as worried as Wigington about the extreme drought conditions.  The Bureau of Reclamation just announced a first-ever forced water cut plan as the Colorado River dwindles to a trickle in Western America.  Wigington contends the severe drought in the West and around the world is not a natural event but caused by man-made weather modification called geoengineering. Wigington explains, “What do we see around the globe?  It’s not just Europe and not just the Western U.S., but South America also.  We are seeing radical protracted drought that is crushing crops everywhere while Las Vegas is being deluged in an engineered scenario.  This is all technology.  They control the spigot, period.  We have said this at GeoEngineeringWatch.org for a decade and a half.  Everything is manifesting itself.  What are we seeing?  While Vegas is being flooded, we are seeing in the bread basket in the Midwest and California 110 degree temperatures, single digit humidity in some places, and crops are virtually imploding here.”

Who is responsible for the biggest drought in the last 1,200 years?  Wigington says documents show it is the U.S. military.  Wigington says, “Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to Presidents Johnson and Carter, stated on the record that climate modification operations were the exceptional covert weapon of the U.S. military to make countries and their populations more compliant.  Climate modification is the Crown Jewel weapon of the Military Industrial Complex.  It’s not just for foreign adversaries, but for their own populations.  They can bring them to their knees without them ever knowing they are under assault.  Think how absurd this is when we have climate modification operations cutting off precipitation to tens of millions in the U.S., and nobody seems to have a clue.  Nobody is willing to acknowledge this elephant in the sky.”

The military is also using forest fires as a weapon too.  Wigington says, “We have found a document that is titled ‘Forest Fires as a Military Weapon.’   (Wigington also has produced a video with the same title.)  It actually names the processes or road map to prepare for intense consideration.  What is most damning about this document is it specifically cites not only many locations in the U.S., including Mount Shasta where I live, it also cites the ‘prime burn windows’ for other U.S. allies that are on fire now such as Portugal, Spain and Greece.  How much more damning can a document be?  This is business as usual for the U.S. military.  Think about the insanity of this.  You incinerate forests as a military weapon and inflict damage on your own citizens.”

Wigington says there is a short window to fully wake people up to stop geoengineering, but the most important group is the U.S. military.  Wigington says, “Our military personnel are unknowingly participating in this . . . .  They are being told they are doing something for the greater good.  It’s something that is saving the planet when it is, in fact, killing the planet.”

Wigington talks about all the contaminated rain water, nuclear war, nano lipid particles, aluminum in your body and how much time we have left before the entire ecosystem implodes because of man-made weather modification called geoengineering.

There is much more in the 36 min interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with climate researcher Dane Wigington, founder of GeoEngineeringWatch.org, with an update to the ongoing global drought calamity for 8.16.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/radical-drought-caused-by-military-weather-weapons-dane-wigington/)

After the interview:

end

see you tomorrow 

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