AUGUST 26//JACKSON HOLE REPORT FROM J.POWELL TODAY: GOLD PRICE AS EXPECTED FELL $20.60 TO $1737.60//SILVER PRICE FELL 39 CENTS TO $18.85//PLATINUM FELL $18.83 TO $868.15//PALLADIUM FELL $12.45 TO $2122.75//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER REPORTS//TED BUTLER A MUST READ RE SILVER SHORTS AT THE SLV//EXCELLENT REPORT ON CHINA’S WATER SHORTAGE AND HOW THAT IS EFFECTING THEIR COUNTRY AND THE GLOBE//EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS WITH A REPORT FROM ENGLAND, CZECH REPUBLIC , SPAIN AND GERMANY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

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GOLD;  $1737.60 DOWN $20.60

SILVER: $18.85 DOWN 39 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1738.10

SILVER: $18.90

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,170 DOWN 457

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,671 DOWN 956

Platinum price closing DOWN $18.34 AT $868.15

Palladium price; closing DOWN $12.45  at $2122.75

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,757.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/25/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/29/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
661 C JP MORGAN 32
690 C ABN AMRO 87
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
905 C ADM 4
991 H CME 57


TOTAL: 91 91
MONTH TO DATE: 33,684

JPMorgan stopped:   32/91

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

91 NOTICES FOR 9100 OZ //0.2830 TONNES

total notices so far: 33,684 contracts for 3,368,400 oz (104.771 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICES FILED FOR 110,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  1049 :  for 5,245,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.21

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 472.900 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 3600  CONTRACTS TO 137,108.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GIGANTIC LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.21 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.21) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 2697 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,   WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND SOME SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS AND COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION//SPREADER LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -6

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 20 days, total 11,385  contracts:  56.925 million oz  OR 2.850 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (569 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 56.925  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 56.925 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3600  DESPITE OUR   $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 897 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// SOME SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS BUT STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 2697 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 13.485 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 22  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  110,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2593 CONTRACTS  TO 457,023 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–1360   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $9.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 2200 OZ //NEW STANDING 105.179 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF   $9.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 111  OI CONTRACTS 0.34 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2452  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,023

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 111 CONTRACTS  WITH 2593 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2482 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 111 CONTRACTS OR 0.34 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2482) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2593): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 111 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 2200 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

52,161 CONTRACTS OR 5,216,100 OZ OR 162.24  TONNES 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2608 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 162.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  162.24/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.56% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 162.24 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3600 CONTRACT OI TO 137,109 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 897 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 897  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 897 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3600  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 897 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 27003   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.515 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.21

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.02 PTS OR 0.31%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 201.66 OR 1,01%    /The Nikkei closed UP 162.37 OR % 0.57.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.74%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.8627//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8674//    /Oil DOWN TO 93.68  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 100.63//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2593 CONTRACTS TO 457,023 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE OF $9.70  IN GOLD PRICING  THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2482 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2482 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2482 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2482 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 111  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2482 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2593  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 9.70.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (105.179),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:105.179 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $9.70) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 0.34 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (105.179 TONNES)

WE HAD -1360  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 111 CONTRACTS OR 11100  OZ OR 0.34 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 172,274///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  124,731/extremely poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 26

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz65,680.066  oz


Brinks
HSBC
Manfra




Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today91   notice(s)
9100  OZ
0.2830 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)131 contracts 
13100 oz
0.4074 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month33,684 notices
3,368,400 OZ
104.711 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 11,989.759 oz 

ii) Out of HSBC: 300.178 oz

iii) OUT OF MANFRA:  53,390.129 oz

total:  65,680.066  oz

total in tonnes: 2.04 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //3

i) Brinks 96,605.935 oz

ii) HSBC: 6,534.034 oz

iii) Manfra: 4675.731 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 222 contracts having LOST 342 contracts .

We had 320 notices served upon yesterday so we LOST 22 contracts or an additional 2200 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this very active month of August as they were EFP’d over to London.

Sept. lost 150 contracts to 2871 contracts.

October lost 1752 contracts up to 38,787 

We had 91 notice(s) filed today for 9,100 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 91 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 32 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,684) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 222 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 91 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,381,500 OZ  OR 105.179 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (33,684) x 100 oz+   (222)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (91} x 100 oz} which equals 3,381,500 oz standing OR 105.179 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  105.179 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,344,669.896 oz   72.92 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,386,338.315 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,724,316,329  OZ (426.87 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,622,021.980 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,379,647. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 353.95 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 26

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,307,727.224 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
Brinks
Loomis

 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory9659.627 OZ
Delaware
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 254,263.767oz


 
No of oz served today (contracts)22CONTRACT(S)
110,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)53 contracts 
(265,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1049 contracts
 5,245,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

i)Into Delaware:  9659.627 oz

total dealer deposits:  9,659.627 oz    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 254,263.767  oz

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 170.388 million oz/329.784 million =51.66% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:3

i) Out of CNT:  100,043.780 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  597,548.130 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 9942.880 oz

iv) Out of Loomis:  600,192.434 oz

total: 1,307,727.224    oz

 adjustments:  0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 52.025 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 329,784 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 75 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY

SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 10,605 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 21,364

OCTOBER GAINED 110 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 453

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 22 for  110,000 oz

Comex volumes:90,289// est. volume today//    very good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 74,989 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1049 x 5,000 oz = 5,245,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(75) and the number of notices served upon today 22  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 1049 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (75)  – number of notices served upon today (22) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 5,510,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 984.38 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 472.900 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Money Does Matter: The End Of The Gold Standard Led To A Lower Standard Of Living

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 04:25 PM

Authored by André Marques via The Mises Institute,

On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon announced that the US dollar (USD) would no longer be redeemable in gold. This was supposed to be temporary. And yet, fifty-one years later, here we are. The gold standard was gradually destroyed in the twentieth century.

Now people are experiencing the consequences: less purchasing power, more economic cycles, and a weaker economy.

In the chapter 4 of his book What Has Government Done to Our Money?, Murray Rothbard goes over the steps the government took to end the gold standard over the twentieth century, from the end of the classical gold standard to the closing of the gold window in 1971.

The Classical Gold Standard (1815–1914)

The classical gold standard tended to prevent the government from running budget deficits and going into debt, as it could not easily create inflation. In 1913, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was born. When the US entered the World War I, US dollars were printed at an excess of the gold reserves. At this point, the US got off the classical gold standard and this money printing contributed to the depression of 1920–21.

The Gold Exchange Standard (1926–31)

In this regime, the USD and the pound sterling (GBP) were the two currencies of reference (“key currencies”). The US went back to the classical gold standard (converting USD into gold). GBP and other currencies were not convertible into gold (except for large bars). The Great Britain converted GBP to USD and the other European countries converted their currencies to GBP. So, the Great Britain inflated GBP and the other European countries did the same with their respective currencies (a “pyramiding” of GBP on USD and of other European currencies on GBP). Consequently, as Rothbard stated:

Britain and Europe were permitted to inflate unchecked, and British deficits could pile up unrestrained by the market discipline of the gold standard…. Britain was able to induce the United States to inflate dollars so as not to lose many dollar reserves or gold to the United States. As sterling balances piled up in France, the United States, and elsewhere, the slightest loss of confidence in the … inflationary structure was bound to lead to general collapse. This is precisely what happened in 1931; the failure of inflated banks throughout Europe, and the attempt of “hard money” France to cash in its sterling balances for gold, led Britain to go off the gold standard completely. Britain was soon followed by the other countries of Europe.

Fluctuating Fiat Currencies (1931–45)

In 1933–34 the US abandoned the classical gold standard once again. The USD was defined as 1/35 of an ounce of gold and only foreign governments and central banks could convert it into gold. So, there was a certain link to gold, but the US was in a floating exchange rate regime. As Rothbard stated, by cutting the ties to gold, this regime

leave[s] the absolute control of each national currency in the hands of its … government [which can] allow its currency to fluctuate freely with respect to all other fiat currencies … [The flaw] is to hand total control of the money supply to [the government], and then to … expect that it will refrain from using that power.

the disastrous experience of … the 1930s world of fiat paper and economic warfare, led the United States authorities to [aim] the restoration of a viable international monetary order

Bretton Woods and the New Gold Exchange Standard (1945–68)

Thus, enter the Bretton Woods system (conceived and implemented by the US at a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in 1944, and ratified by the US Congress in 1945). It was similar to the gold exchange standard, but with the USD being the only “key currency,” priced at $35 an ounce of gold and being redeemable in gold only by foreign governments and central banks.

However, this system eventually met its end. The US inflated the USD (“pyramided” it on its gold reserves), and other governments held USD as their reserves and “pyramided” their currencies on those dollars. And throughout the 1960s, the US constantly inflated the dollar in absolute terms and relative to Europe and Japan. This decade was marked by the “War on Poverty,” the Vietnam War, and space programs.

To finance all this, the US started running large budget deficits, with the Fed monetizing the debt (expanding the money supply). However, the Western European countries that had adopted more solid monetary policies (Western Germany, Switzerland, France and Italy), started to oppose the obligation to accumulate dollars. Europe began to redeem dollars in gold, and the Bretton Woods system began to collapse in 1968 (ending in 1971, when Nixon suspended the redemption of the USD in gold).

The Closing of the Gold Window and the Rise of the Floating Exchange Rate Regime (1971–?)

In order to keep the redemption of the USD in gold, the US government had two options:

  1. Cut spending and taxes to reduce the budget deficit. The supply of money would decrease, and the USD would appreciate, which would allow prices to fall to levels that would be consistent with an ounce of gold at $35 and restore demand for the currency.
  2. Dollar devaluation. This would mean that the price of an ounce of gold would have to rise to a level that would be consistent with the supply of USD and the higher prices for goods and services. But this would require the government to reduce the budget deficit to prevent future devaluations.

Both options were inconvenient for the government. Thus, in February 1973, after two devaluations of the USD that raised the price of an ounce of gold to $42.22, the closing of the gold window became permanent. Therefore, the USD returned to the floating exchange rate regime (as in 1931–45, but with no link to gold).

As a result, the USD devalued and the 1970s were marked by stagflation. In 1980, the price of an ounce of gold was $850. The price of oil rose from just under $3 a barrel in 1970 to just under $40 in 1980. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was over 14 percent in 1980 (chart 1). It was only in the early 1980s that the CPI began to decline, when Paul Volcker, Fed chairman at the time, raised the federal funds rate to almost 20 percent (chart 2).

Chart 1: Consumer Price Index (1965–85)

Source: Trading Economics; author’s own elaboration.

Chart 2: Federal Funds Rate (1970–88)

Source: FRED; author’s own elaboration.

However, in 1980, the US federal debt was “only” $930.2 billion (chart 3). Thus, it was possible to significantly increase interest rates without causing major impacts on the economy. Today, the federal debt is above $30.5 trillion. The Fed can’t raise rates without crashing the economy. The US has gone from being the world’s biggest creditor in the early 1970s to the world’s biggest debtor today (the US has more debt than all other governments in the world combined).

Chart 3: Federal Debt for the United States (1970–2021)

Source: FRED; author’s own elaboration.

As the federal funds rate rose, the USD appreciated and there was a restoration of confidence in the currency. This (along with the fact that the US dollar was already the currency in which oil and other commodities were priced) allowed the USD to remain the main world reserve currency. And this, along with the fact that the USD has been unbacked since 1971, has allowed the US to inflate it over time, destroying its value. As of August 3, 2022, the ounce of gold costs $1765:

Chart 4: Price of Gold (In US Dollars)

Price of 1 Kg – 1Kg = 2.20462 Pounds (Left Axis); Price of an Ounce (Right Axis).

Source: goldprice.org; author’s own elaboration.

Conclusion

The consequences of the end of the gold standard began to be felt in the 1970s.

The devaluation of the USD substantially reduced Americans’ real wages. 

Before 1970, usually only one member of a family was able to support it.

From the 1970s onwards, this began to change to the point where today this is only possible for wealthier people. Despite all the technological advancements, the standard of living today is lower than in the 1950s and the 1960s, as today, in order to live and to buy things they want or need, people need to work a lot more (and even go into debt).

If the USD had not been devalued since 1913 (or even if it had been appreciated, which is what tends to occur when there is no monetary expansion), the standard of living would be much higher today.

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is a must read:  SLV is in a massive physical short position and thus the reason for silver price being under

pressure.  It cannot be resolved unless the price escalates considerably.

(Butler/GATA)

Ted Butler: Why silver went down when it should have gone up

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-08-25 13:36Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ted Butler
Butler Research, Jupiter, Florida
via SilverSeek.com

https://www.butlerresearch.com/

Two weeks ago it looked to me like silver was about to take off, following months of sharp price declines, yet we experienced the worst selloff in a couple of years.

Most puzzling was the cause of the sharp price declines. It didn’t appear to reside in Comex futures positioning. It was something else entirely. I’ve been (quite literally) agonizing over what was behind this completely unexpected selloff to no avail, almost to the point of questioning my sanity, until a simple question from Jim Cook, president of Investment Rarities, appeared to provide the answer.

Jim asked if the highly-counterintuitive selloff I was moaning about could be related to the short position in the exchange-traded fund SLV, and my head nearly exploded because it was so obvious that I couldn’t conceive why I hadn’t thought of it.  

Talk about being too close to the trees to see the forest. I had been so preoccupied with the excessive short position in SLV that I failed to make the most obvious connection.

Simply put, the most plausible explanation for the selloff in silver this week was the short position in SLV that I have been writing about. 

The excessive short position in SLV is the explanations for the truly putrid price performance in silver over the past two weeks.

What makes the short position in SLV such a big deal is that the most plausible reason for its existence is a wholesale shortage in silver of thousand-ounce bars. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://bit.ly/3ApBdNa

end

Why Silver Went down When It Should Have Gone Up

August 22, 2022

Profile picture for user Ted Butler

Ted Butler

Two weeks ago, it looked to me like silver was about to take off, following months of sharp price declines, yet we experienced the worst selloff in a couple of years.  Most puzzling was the cause of the sharp price declines. It didn’t appear to reside in COMEX futures positioning. It was something else entirely. I’ve been (quite literally) agonizing over what was behind this completely unexpected selloff to no avail, almost to the point of questioning my sanity, until a simple question from Jim Cook, president of Investment Rarities, appeared to provide the answer. Jim asked if the highly-counterintuitive selloff I was moaning about could be related to the short position in SLV and my head nearly exploded because it was so obvious that I couldn’t conceive why I hadn’t thought of it. Talk about being too close to the trees to see the forest. I had been so pre-occupied with the excessive short position in SLV that I failed to make the most obvious connection.

Simply put, the most plausible explanation for the selloff in silver this week was the short position in SLV that I have been writing about. The excessive short position in SLV is the explanations for the truly putrid price performance in silver over the past two weeks.  What makes the short position in SLV such a big deal is that the most plausible reason for its existence is a wholesale shortage in silver of 1000 oz bars. The short position exists because there is not sufficient physical silver available for deposit, as is required by the prospectus. The only reason for an AP (Authorized Participant) to short shares of SLV at a time of extremely low silver prices and low levels of commercial shorting on the COMEX is the lack of availability of physical silver to deposit for newly created shares.

So how do those short in the SLV get out of their short position? Prices have been rigged lower on the COMEX to make it easier for whoever is short SLV to buy back short positions in SLV on lower prices. Shorting more shares would have only dug their hole deeper. The only way the big short sellers in SLV could rig prices lower was by using the crooked and illegal price mechanism of rigging prices lower on the COMEX, so that the shorted shares of SLV could be bought back. In fact, there was no other way. For the big short sellers in SLV, to simply buy back shares without using the COMEX price mechanism to rig prices lower would have sent silver prices soaring – the very last thing the big SLV short sellers would desire. I can’t explain how I didn’t see this until Cook asked me the question – but better late than never.

The biggest question, of course, is where the heck are the regulators while this is going on? I have put the SEC on notice (and have received confirmations that my complaints were received), but, obviously, this is very much a matter for the CFTC and the CME Group, as well and I’ll send them this article as I have all along. The issues I’m raising are substantive and documented and every bit the big deal I claim them to be. Yet, nothing ever seems to be the done by the regulators.

What I have described is nothing less than the existence of a profound physical shortage in wholesale quantities of silver that is much closer to hitting the proverbial fan that anyone can imagine. While I wouldn’t attempt to try and pinpoint when the turn up may come, it seems impossible that silver prices, regardless of where they may go in the short run, will not be substantially higher in the not-too-distant future. I have always made it a practice not to underestimate the treachery and cunning of the commercial shorts on the COMEX and now in SLV, and this latest manipulative episode in the shorted shares in SLV only prove these crooks are relentless. That said, a physical silver shortage appears to be close at hand and based upon what has transpired, any other conclusion seems far-fetched. One thing of which I’m increasingly certain is that whenever the real move higher in silver gets initiated, it won’t be of the two steps forward, one step back variety. Instead, we go straightaway and with no looking back.

Ted Butler

August 22, 2022

www.butlerresearch.com

end

Your weekend reading material

(Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: Living with contracting bank credit

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-08-25 14:21Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, August 25, 2022

In this article we look at the consequences of contracting bank credit on the economy, financial markets, and commodities. It is a developing global condition.

Why is bank credit on the verge of a substantial contraction? 

The starting point is record bank balance sheet leverage in the Eurozone and Japan, high bank leverage rates elsewhere, and a sea change in the interest rate environment. In short, instead of being greedy for profits, senior bankers are now growing scared of risk and of their exposure to it.

The effect on the non-financial economy will be to cause nominal GDP to slump because every transaction that makes up GDP is settled through credit — nearly all of it is bank credit. Contracting bank credit will simply drive GDP into the ground.

But bank credit also drives financial activities, its long-term expansion having driven bond yields down, equities up, and expanding derivative markets to a $700 trillion monster. A credit contraction undermines financial asset values and associated derivative markets. This article looks at the inadequacies of Basel III regulations in this context.

Every 10 years or so there is a banking crisis because of bankers attempting to reduce lending risk. Fourteen years since the Lehman failure, this cycle’s downturn is now overdue.

The indications are that the cycle of bank credit contraction is just beginning…

… For the remainder of the analysis :

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/living-with-contracting-bank-credit?gmrefcode=gata

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Ep.88 Live from the Vault

Russia weaponizes gold – LBMA under siege!

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire highlights the possible implications of Russia’s plan to create its own international standard for the precious metals market by establishing a local LBMA-competing brand.

With global investors growing frustrated over the unnatural capping of the gold and silver prices, the London wholesaler provides further evidence of the COMEX’s broken pricing mechanism.

Play

Get the App

-END-

*SHOCKING Letter from US Mint Director

Just got a shocking letter (attached) from US Mint Director Ventris Gibson claiming…

“This year, we significantly increased production quantities of one of our most popular coins, the American Eagle One Ounce Silver Dollar, which will lead to broader availability to our customers!”

WOW! How is producing Silver Eagles at 25% of the Mint’s full year capacity “increasing production quantities?”

In 2015 the US Mint produced 47M Silver Eagles and 8 months into 2022 they’ve only made 12 Million!!

Must be another secret part of the “Inflation Reduction Act!”

Luckily, there are good people calling them out on their lies:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/08/26/congressman- criticizes-us-mints-management-of-silver-american-eagle- program-demands-answers-002581

end

Very important read:

Could new Russia metals exchange have an impact on gold prices?

By Indrabati Lahiri

Capital-com

Russia has just announced a new precious metals exchange called the Moscow World Standard

Russia has recently proposed its own precious metals exchange, provisionally called the Moscow World Standard (MWS), which is expected to join the ranks of other world- class metals exchanges. This plan has been long in the making, with the country specifically highlighting that it wants this exchange to be an alternative to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

Over the last few months, Russia has become increasingly insistent that the LBMA has engaged in artificial practices by manipulating the precious metals market and keeping prices low. This in turn, is seen as having a negative impact on precious metal exporters. These accusations have also become stronger since the LBMA banned Russian precious metals such as gold, platinum and palladium as part of the international Russia-Ukraine sanctions.

Russia is one of the biggest producers of gold worldwide

What do we know about the proposed Moscow World Standard so far?

Although seen as a kind of retaliatory gesture towards the LBMA, according to the Russian Finance Ministry, this move is key for “normalizing the functioning of the precious metals sector.” The exchange will be based on a special global precious metals brokerage, which will have headquarters in Moscow and will rely on the Moscow World Standard.

There is also likely to be a committee which will have major financial institutions and central banks from ex-USSR countries such as Armenia, Kyrgyztan, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which along with Russia, form the key Eurasian Economic Union.

The current plan is to peg precious metal prices to either one of the national currencies of the countries in the union or create an entirely new currency, inspired by the proposed BRICS currency. This will be used for international trade, smoothening processes outside the union.

Apart from that, Russia is also trying to get other major gold producing and consuming countries, such as Venezuela, China, India and Peru to support this new exchange. India has recently announced its own precious metals exchange, known as the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX), to compete with the LBMA as well, reportedly unhappy with the latter’s methods of practice too.

According to Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, the IIBX will “empower India to gain its rightful place in the global bullion market and serve the global value chain with integrity and quality.”

Investors speculate that Russia and India have started a movement, which could potentially sweep up other major gold and precious metals producing countries as well, inspiring them to open up their own exchanges soon too. This will go a long way in distributing the power of traditional metal exchnages a little more evenly throughout the world.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8627

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8674

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 201.66 PTS OR  1.01%

2. Nikkei closed UP 162.37 OR 0.57%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED MOSTLY RED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  108.37/Euro RISES TO 0.9989

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.215/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 137.02/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.341%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.64% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.53%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.91//

3j Gold at $1745.00 silver at: 19.23  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 14/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.00//

3m oil into the 93 dollar handle for WTI and  100 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.39DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9645– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9635well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.071  UP 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.281 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,18

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Drift Lower Ahead Of Action Jackson Hawk-nado

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 07:47 AM

The day we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived as Jerome Powell prepares for his keynote hawknado speech at the
“Action Jackson” Hole.

After yesterday’s unexpected last hour rally, US stock futures dropped and interest rates rose as jittery investor nerves took hold before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated (hawkish) speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. S&P futures dropped 0.4% in a subdued session, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% as of 7:15 a.m. ET. Both underlying indexes jumped Thursday, paring losses from earlier in the week, as bond yields dropped. Still, the benchmark S&P 500 is set for its second straight weekly decline as Fed policy makers sounded more hawkish about their outlook on rate hikes, even amid growing fears of a recession.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Affirm Holdings Inc. slumped after the payments company gave a revenue forecast for 2023 that missed the average analyst estimate. Shares of Dell Technologies also fell more than 4% following bearish remarks from the PC maker about the business environment for the second half. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Farfetch (FTCH US) rises 16% in premarket trading after the company posted a 2Q revenue beat, with analysts highlighting strong growth prospects for 2023 and resilient core results.
  • Gap (GPS US) gains 8% in premarket trading after the apparel retailer reported a surprise profit and improving sales trends.
  • Workday (WDAY US) rises 11% in premarket trading after the application software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and reiterated its forecast for the year.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL US) fell 1.4% in postmarket trading. The firm’s softer guidance is disappointing, with weakness in some key growth areas, analysts said.
  • Ulta Beauty’s (ULTA US) quarterly results beat on most metrics, prompting price-target raises for the beauty products retailer. The shares rose 3% in postmarket trading.

Of course, today’s main event is Powell’s speech scheduled for 10 a.m. Washington time, where the Fed chair is expected to restate the central bank’s resolve to keep tightening policy to fight elevated inflation. Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the stakes are high for what Powell signals today as inflation will likely drive the trajectory of stocks over the next year. “If the Fed’s incremental rate hikes are effective at cooling today’s rampant inflation, Powell could lead to market upside over the course of the next year,” Haefele wrote. “But if the Fed, or the market misjudge the direction and drivers of inflation, outcomes for investors would likely be much worse.”

“The reality is that the Fed will want to be sure that inflation is falling at a sustainable enough pace before it signals any sort of dovish shift or pivot,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “This puts Powell in the rather tricky position of having to let markets down gently.”

As Oanda’s Craig Erlam writes, there is “no doubt Powell will have chosen his words very carefully today, all too aware of the consequences of even the smallest deviation in his intended message. It’s a little ridiculous that markets put so much weight on such things but that is the situation we are in and I expect the Fed Chair will be very clear in the message he wants to send.  The difficulty for Powell stems from the fact that there’s the message investors desperately want to hear and the one they’ve repeatedly ignored since the July Fed meeting.”

Erlam adds that the “dovish pivot” played nicely into the hands of the perma-bulls that have waited impatiently for the stock market to recover this year. Despite policymakers’ best efforts, “attempts to correct this narrative have been brushed aside and the view today is that Powell may try to address this in a more forceful and convincing way.” But, if he fails or gives the slightest impression that there is any substance to the dovish pivot narrative, we could see yields slip and stock markets end the week on a high. That could come intentionally, or otherwise, but investors will be clinging to his every word for even the slightest hint. Especially in light of the recent inflation reading. No pressure.”

Duration and rate-sensitive tech stocks will be in particular focus in the aftermath of the J-Hole conclave after leading the sharp recovery in US stocks since mid-June. Higher interest rates mean a bigger DCF discount, hurting growth stocks with the highest valuations, including technology, and boosting cheap or so-called value shares. As Bloomberg notes, market watchers will be cautious about further gains for the sector after the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 20% from its June low, making valuations more expensive again. In the week to Aug. 24, technology funds saw the biggest outflows since November 2021, according to a note from Bank of America Corp. citing EPFR Global Data.

European equities tracked US futures, and turned negative after gaining in early trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.4% giving up earlier gains of as much as 0.5%. Miners and banks outperformed, while media stocks were laggards. Media, travel and food & beverages lag while miners, banks and autos outperform.  The summer rally in European shares has run into concerns that the Fed will continue raising rates to tame inflation despite fears of an economic slump. The main regional benchmark is set for a second week of losses. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • SKF shares rise as much as 7.2% after activist investment firm Cevian Capital boosted its stake in the Swedish industrial group. Analysts say the firm could be on the verge of meaningful change
  • European mining companies are the best-performing group in Stoxx 600 benchmark on Friday, as iron ore gained. Base metals also edged higher amid China’s efforts to stimulate its economy
  • GSK, Sanofi and Haleon shares all gain as Citi opens positive catalyst watches on GSK and Sanofi following a tentative ruling that could mean the settlement on Zantac is significantly lower than expected
  • Micro Focus International shares rise as much as 94% after Canada’s OpenText agrees to buy the UK software firm for 532p/share, implying an enterprise value of about $6b
  • Molecular Partners rises as much as 8.6% after the biotech reported 2Q results that came in line with expectations. RBC says the firm has a strong cash position, which remains the key financial metric
  • SFS shares are up as much as 6%, most since December 2021, after the company reported a sales beat, with analysts welcoming the new margin guidance, saying it represents upside to consensus estimates
  • Eurocommercial Properties shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most intraday since March 29, after the real estate investment firm reported better- than-expected net property income
  • RELX shares dip 3.7% and Wolters Kluwer shares drop 2.5% and drag on the Stoxx 600 Media index, with Citi flagging negative sentiment for the media groups from US Open Access plans
  • Lundbergforetagen slides, falling as much as 3.3%, as Handelsbanken warns of the risk that the Swedish property investment firm’s net asset value (NAV) discount could increase still further
  • H&M shares drop as much as 2.1% as price targets are cut at at least three more brokers, with analysts bearish on the outlook for the Swedish fast- fashion retailer amid a weaker consumer environment

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a second day, as technology stocks gained ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4%, trimming gains later in the day as US futures slipped. TSMC and Samsung were among the biggest boosts as global chipmakers rallied, while Alibaba and peers climbed after reports of talks to avoid delistings of Chinese stocks in New York. Australia stocks were among the biggest gainers, with the benchmark gauge up 0.8%.  Investors will monitor Powell’s remarks later Friday for clues on the path of the Fed’s interest rate hikes ahead of its September meeting. Recent comments by Fed officials have indicated the US central bank may focus on taming high inflation, triggering a selloff in equities earlier this week. Read: Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference Is Underway: Here’s What to Expect “To some degree, we are expecting Chair Powell may well push back against the ideas that we should expect the dovish pivot any time soon,” Audrey Goh, an investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank SG, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Whether this rally will extend, I think the key is really the dollar. We really need to see a weak dollar for risk assets to sustain recovery,” she said.  Friday’s advance following a jump in the previous session has helped the MSCI’s Asian stock benchmark finish the week almost flat. The gauge had slumped earlier in the week amid concerns that the Fed may ramp up its hawkishness and mixed corporate earnings. The gauge is down 17% this year, underperforming global peers on steep losses in Chinese shares

Japanese stocks tracked gains in US peers as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials which signaled a resolve to tighten further to tame inflation.  The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 1,979.59, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 28,641.38. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 1% as the company said it will increase PlayStation 5 console prices in certain countries. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 1,053 rose and 969 fell, while 148 were unchanged. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard said officials should act quickly and lift their policy benchmark to a 3.75% to 4% range by year end. Bullard spoke to CNBC in Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to make a speech Friday. “For Japan stocks the remarks will have a different aspect depending on the industry, with a more hawkish tone favorable for export-related stocks as interest rates rise and the yen will weaken,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. But, “overall, of course the more dovish the more favorable it will be for the markets.” 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.8% to close at 7,104.10, boosted by banks and mining shares. Soaring profits unveiled by Australian miners this week were a beacon of light amid the gloom dominating economic headlines.  The benchmark erased 0.2% this week, snapping five weeks of gains, in the lead up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors will monitor Powell’s remarks for clues on the path of the Fed’s interest rate hikes ahead of its September meeting. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,608.29

Stocks in India rose in line with Asian peers on Friday as Kotak Mahindra Bank and Larsen & Toubro gained. The key equity gauges still posted their first weekly drops since mid-July, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s commentary about monetary-policy outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.1% to 58,833.87 in Mumbai, paring its weekly loss to 1.4%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index climbed 0.2% on Friday. Among the 30 members on the Sensex, 19 gained and 11 fell. The gauge on Thursday took a surprise dive in the last hour of trade due to the expiry of the monthly derivative contracts.  Much of the advance in Indian stocks since June have been driven by purchases by foreign investors. However, the inflows moderated this week on risk-aversion ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which will help investors gauge the future course of rate hikes by the US central bank. Foreign investors have purchased $110m of Indian stocks this week through Aug. 24, compared with net buying of more than $1 billion for preceding three weeks.

In FX, the greenback pared gains against most of its Group-of-10 currencies. DKK and EUR are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and GBP underperform. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed after rising 0.3% earlier. As Powell delivers the much anticipated speech, “markets may find enough reason to push their peak rate pricing closer to the 4.0% mark today, which should ultimately offer some support to the dollar,” Francesco Pesole, a strategist at ING Groep NV wrote in a note.

Australian and New Zealand dollars fell the most among G-10 currencies as they were sold by fast money funds in last minute positioning ahead of Powell’s speech, according to Asia-based FX traders. “The Fed has been pretty clear in its messaging so I would be surprised if Powell suddenly changed direction or threw something else into the mix,” said Darren Langer, co-head of Australian fixed income at Yarra Capital

  • EUR/GBP up 0.3%; GBP/USD down 0.1%. The pound fell as much as 0.5% after the UK energy regulator raised the caps on energy prices, a move likely to escalate inflationary pressures
  • NZD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.621. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr forecast sharply slower economic growth to constrain demand and tamp down inflation while suggesting the central bank may be nearing the end of its aggressive hiking cycle
  • AUD/USD dropped 0.1% to 0.6955 after falling as much as 0.4%
  • USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 136.886

In rates, Treasuries were lower led by intermediates, re-steepening 2s10s spread back toward middle of Thursday’s range. Bunds and more notably gilts outperform Treasuries, while S&P 500 futures are also under pressure with European stocks. US 10-year yield 3.07% is cheaper by 5bp on the day, underperforming bunds by ~1bp, gilts by ~5bp; 2s10s is steeper by ~4bp with front-end Treasuries only marginally cheaper on the day. Bunds 10-year yield up about 2 bps to 1.33%, while gilts appear relatively muted in comparison as 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.61. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, and just $1.3b of new supply has been seen this week. Three-month dollar Libor +2.64bp to 3.06957%.

In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.6% to around $93. Most base metals are in the green; LME nickel rises 1.6%, outperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $6 to trade near $1,752/oz. Bitcoin and ethereum both slumped, going back to levels last ween on Wednesday.

To the day ahead now, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Otherwise, data releases from the US include July’s personal income and personal spending, along with the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for August. From Europe, there’s the GfK consumer confidence index from Germany for September, as well as consumer confidence readings from France and Italy too for August.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,190.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 433.05
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 160.81
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 525.76
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,641.38
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,979.59
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 20,170.04
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,236.22
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 59,023.37
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,104.06
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,481.03
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.34%
  • Euro little changed at $0.9978
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $100.20/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $100.21/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,751.78
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 108.54

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • From canceling Friday night trips to the pub to pushing back soccer practice, global investors are pulling out all the stops to ensure they’re ready for the most important gathering of central bankers this year.
  • China is using China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp to ship millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil despite US sanctions, Reuters reports, citing three unidentified people and tanker tracking data
  • Europeans are taking colder showers, offices are turning down thermostats and stores are dimming lights to avoid blackouts and freezing homes this winter in the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine
  • The cost of French power jumped to a fresh record as its nuclear fleet faces further outages going into what’s set to be a very expensive winter. UK households will pay almost triple the price to heat their homes this winter compared with a year ago

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks took impetus from Wall St where stocks eventually shrugged off the initial choppy mood and ramped up heading into the close with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid a lower yield environment. ASX 200 was underpinned amid a slew of earnings releases and with the consumer-related sectors leading the gains after Australia’s largest retailer Wesfarmers reported a 9% increase in revenue. Nikkei 225 gained from the open with the index unfazed by firm Tokyo CPI data which printed its fastest pace of increase since 2014, as this is seen as unlikely to trigger an adjustment of BoJ policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood as participants digested a slew of earnings results including PetroChina’s record profit and with tech stocks buoyed after delisting concerns were soothed by reports that China and the US are nearing a deal regarding company audits.

Top Asian News

  • US suspended 26 US flights by Chinese carriers after China’s COVID action limited some US flights, according to the DOT cited by Reuters.
  • Chinese state planner official says domestic inflation is likely to quicken slightly later in 2022 and early next year.
  • China has asked some US-listed Chinese companies and their audit firms to make preparations for American inspections in Hong Kong, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chinese Financial Regulators have informally told lenders to make more loans, and raise some banks’ loan quotas and loan-growth requirements, according to Reuters sources.

European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell. Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside. US Chip software producer Synopsys is set to expand into Vietnam amid the Chinese tech war, according to the Nikkei. Panasonic (6752 JT) says they are considering various EV battery business strategies, nothing decided yet.

Top European News

  • Ofgem UK Energy Price Cap – Q4 2022 (GBP): Default 3549 (prev. 1971, exp. 3582), +80.06%; Standard Credit 3764 (prev. 2100), +79.2%; Prepayment Meter 3641 (prev. 2017), +80.5%.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss is considering plans to invoke Article 16 regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol within days if she becomes the next PM, according to government insiders cited by FT.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss has reportedly been meeting with the business secretary and her prospective chancellor regarding a significant support package to help with energy bills, according to The Times citing sources.
  • German Economy Ministry spokesperson says they are looking at changes to the gas levy.

FX

  • DXY fades earlier gains but trades within a 108.25-75 range throughout the morning.
  • EUR outperforms and has been resilient as EUR/USD sees large OpEx above parity.
  • GBP, AUD, CHF, and CAD are all relatively flat vs the Buck, whilst NZD and JPY lag.

Fixed Income

  • Despite fairly pronounced ranges, over 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters.
  • USTs are pressured, with yields elevated and the curve bear-steepening but, again, well within recent ranges.
  • SONIA strip takes a slight dovish skew, though Gilts unfased, following the as-expected Ofgem cap announcement.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent October contracts are consolidating following yesterday’s slide in prices.
  • Spot gold resides around USD 1,750/oz after dipping under its 10 DMA (USD 1,756.60/oz)
  • Base metals are mixed but copper prices remain supported and reside around USD 8,250/t.
  • UAE is supportive of the latest statement from Saudi Arabia on crude markets, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Four ships loaded with grain are leaving Ukrainian ports and another five ships are arriving for loading, according to Al Jazeera citing the Turkish Defense Ministry.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: July Personal Income, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
    • July Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 1.1%
    • July Real Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 08:30: July PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.0%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6.8%
    • 08:30: July PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%; PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.8%
  • 08:30: July Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 2.0%
    • July Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.8%
  • 08:30: July Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$98.5b, prior -$98.2b, revised – $98.6b
  • 10:00: Aug. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55.4, prior 55.1
  • Aug. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 55.0, prior 54.9
  • Aug. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 55.6, prior 55.5
  • Aug. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.0%, prior 5.0%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After much anticipation over the quiet summer season, today will finally see Fed Chair Powell deliver his annual speech at Jackson Hole. When we heard from Powell following the last FOMC meeting in July, markets interpreted his comments in a dovish light that helped send risk assets on a strong rally over the following weeks. That was given further fuel by the much weaker-than-expected CPI print a couple of weeks back too. But that narrative moved into reverse over the last week or so, in part due to mounting expectations that Powell could deliver a more hawkish message later today, and investors have responded accordingly. Indeed, the rate which Fed funds futures are pricing in for December 2023 is up by +75bps since the start of the month, as investors have shifted their expectations closer towards what FOMC officials have actually been saying about the future path of rates.

Irrespective of the leaning of Powell’s remarks, today is likely to mark a big divergence from the messages of recent years. It was only back in 2019 that Powell used his speech to comment that “Low inflation seems to be the problem of this era, not high inflation.” Then in 2020 as he discussed the Fed’s review of their monetary policy framework, he said that “The persistent undershoot of inflation from our 2 percent longer-run objective is a cause for concern.” And even in 2021 as inflation had risen above target, Powell discussed why the inflation spike was likely be temporary, citing factors such as the absence of broad-based price pressures. So we’ve come a long way since then.

In terms of what to look out for today, our US economists don’t expect that Powell will deliver explicit guidance for the September meeting given that we’ve still got another jobs report and CPI print beforehand. However, they do think he’ll likely to skew his remarks in a hawkish direction to ensure the Fed’s inflation-fighting credentials are unquestioned, not least after the comments from July were interpreted in a dovish light. You can read their full preview here.

With all that to look forward to, markets put in a very strong performance over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.41%) seeing its largest gain in nearly two weeks, just as sovereign bonds have also rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. Sentiment was boosted by hopes that Powell might not be as hawkish as some fear, along with better-than-expected data releases. They included the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week through August 20, which fell to 243k (vs. 252k expected), as well as the continuing claims for the previous week which fell to 1.415m (vs. 1.441m expected). On top of that, Q2’s GDP contraction was revised to show a shallower -0.6% annualised decline (vs. -0.9% previously).

Those more positive moves for key assets came in spite of the latest deterioration in Europe’s energy situation, as the continent experienced yet another day of record prices. Natural gas futures surged a further +10.02% to settle at a new high of €321 per megawatt-hour. And if that wasn’t enough, German power prices for next year saw their largest daily increase so far in 2022, with an astonishing +16.39% rise taking them to their own record of €748 per megawatt-hour. Meanwhile in France, EDF announced they were extending the return dates following a number of reactor outages, and power prices for next year rose +14.99% to €903 per megawatt-hour. Finally in the UK, today will see the energy regulator Ofgem announce the latest energy price cap that will apply from October, and as our UK economist has written (link here) we could see a rise of around 80%.

Unlike the pattern over recent days however, this latest inflationary impulse failed to knock sovereign bonds. Indeed, the moves brought a stop to a run of 7 consecutive declines for European sovereigns that’s taken 10yr bund yields up by +47bps over that time. By the close of trade, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.4bps), OATs (-5.6bps) and BTPs (-12.8bps) had all fallen back, and peripheral spreads also tightened in line with the broader risk-on move across asset classes.

Back in the US, Treasuries put in a similarly strong rally and 10yr yields fell -7.8bps to 3.03%, even as Fed officials continued to point in a hawkish direction ahead of Powell’s remarks today. Early in the day we heard from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said regarding the September meeting that “at this point, I’d toss a coin between the two” on whether to hike by 75bps again or 50bps. We then heard from Kansas City Fed President George, who said there was “more room to go” on hiking rates. And Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that “we don’t need to rush way up and then way down – we need to go up and sit for a while and let things play out”. So comments that point away from swift reversal after the hiking cycle has concluded. Finally, St Louis Fed President Bullard repeated his stance of moving rates to 3.75-4% by the end of the year, so 150bps higher than at present, and said that he favoured frontloading rate hikes.

Equities saw little reaction to any of the Fed commentary yesterday, although there was a strong rally in the final hour of US trading that helped the S&P 500 (+1.41%) record a broad-based advance where every sector moved higher on the day. The more cyclical sectors led the gains, with megacap tech stocks outperforming as the FANG+ Index rose +3.06%. In Europe, the main indices closed before that late surge, yet the STOXX 600 still posted a +0.30% gain.

That equity rally has continued in Asia this morning, where Chinese equities have been further supported by reports that regulators are making progress in talks over the delisting of companies in New York. Against that backdrop, the major indices in the region are all in positive territory, with the Nikkei (+0.72%) leading the way, followed by the Hang Seng (+0.70%), the KOSPI (+0.27%) and the CSI 300 (+0.02%). We also got some inflation data from Japan for August, where Tokyo’s CPI came in above expectations at +2.9% (vs. +2.7% expected). Looking forward however, the mood is a bit less optimistic, with S&P 500 futures down -0.13% this morning ahead of Powell’s speech later. 10yr Treasuries have also reversed course with a +2.4bps rise in yields to 3.05%.

With everything else going on, the release of the ECB minutes from their July meeting got somewhat less attention. Nevertheless, there were still some interesting headlines, including that “some members” were in favour of a smaller 25bp move at the last meeting, since that was what had been indicated in June, and that with “recession risks looming, an increase of 25 basis points was seen as more in line with a gradual monetary policy normalisation.” The minutes also pointed out how “there might be more persistence in the inflation process than embedded in models where parameters were maintained at the values that had been estimated in a low-inflation environment”. Separately, there were some negative comments about forward guidance moving forward, with the comment that “specific forward guidance” on rates “was seen as excessively constraining the Governing Council’s optionality, flexibility and data-dependence”.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, German GDP growth in Q2 was revised a tenth higher from the preliminary estimate to show a +0.1% expansion. Furthermore, the Ifo’s business climate indicator for August also held up better than expected, with the reading “only” falling back to 88.5 (vs. 86.8 expected), although it was still the lowest since June 2020. Otherwise, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for August fell back to 3 (vs. 10 expected), which was its lowest level since July 2020.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Otherwise, data releases from the US include July’s personal income and personal spending, along with the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for August. From Europe, there’s the GfK consumer confidence index from Germany for September, as well as consumer confidence readings from France and Italy too for August.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Contained trade overall with updates limited pre-Powell at Jackson Hole – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 06:48 AM

  • European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell
  • Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside
  • DXY fades initial gains with EUR marginally back above parity and peers generally contained though NZD & JPY lag
  • Despite fairly pronounced ranges, around 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters
  • Crude benchmarks consolidate; UAE reportedly, via Reuters, supportive of the Saudi crude statement
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, Speech from Fed Chair Powell (15:00BST/10:00ET)

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, Speech from Fed Chair Powell (15:00BST/10:00ET)
  • Click here for the Jackson Hole schedule/primers.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Turkish Defence Minister says discussions with the US on F-16s are positive and thinks the purchase will take place, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Swedish EU affairs minister doesn’t think that the council will decide to open EU accession talks with Ukraine & Moldova during the Swedish EU presidency in the 1st half of 2023, according to a journalist on Twitter.
  • Representative of Russia to the IAEA says intensive preparations are under way for the visit of the IAEA mission to the Ukrainian Zaporizhia nuclear plant, according to Sky News Arabia.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell.
  • Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside.
  • US Chip software producer Synopsys is set to expand into Vietnam amid the Chinese tech war, according to the Nikkei.
  • Panasonic (6752 JT) says they are considering various EV battery business strategies, nothing decided yet.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY fades earlier gains but trades within a 108.25-75 range throughout the morning.
  • EUR outperforms and has been resilient as EUR/USD sees large OpEx above parity.
  • GBPAUDCHF, and CAD are all relatively flat vs the Buck, whilst NZD and JPY lag.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9850 (536M), 1.0000-10 (2.0BLN), 1.0050-55 (1.08BLN), 1.0150 (1.75BLN)
  • USD/JPY: 135.00 (360M), 137.00-10 (1.3BLN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Despite fairly pronounced ranges, over 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters.
  • USTs are pressured, with yields elevated and the curve bear-steepening but, again, well within recent ranges.
  • SONIA strip takes a slight dovish skew, though Gilts unfased, following the as-expected Ofgem cap announcement.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent October contracts are consolidating following yesterday’s slide in prices.
  • Spot gold resides around USD 1,750/oz after dipping under its 10 DMA (USD 1,756.60/oz)
  • Base metals are mixed but copper prices remain supported and reside around USD 8,250/t.
  • UAE is supportive of the latest statement from Saudi Arabia on crude markets, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Four ships loaded with grain are leaving Ukrainian ports and another five ships are arriving for loading, according to Al Jazeera citing the Turkish Defense Ministry.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Ofgem UK Energy Price Cap – Q4 2022 (GBP): Default 3549 (prev. 1971, exp. 3582), +80.06%; Standard Credit 3764 (prev. 2100), +79.2%; Prepayment Meter 3641 (prev. 2017), +80.5%.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss is considering plans to invoke Article 16 regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol within days if she becomes the next PM, according to government insiders cited by FT.
  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss has reportedly been meeting with the business secretary and her prospective chancellor regarding a significant support package to help with energy bills, according to The Times citing sources.
  • German Economy Ministry spokesperson says they are looking at changes to the gas levy.

NOTABLE DATA:

  • German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep) -36.5 vs. Exp. -31.8 (Prev. -30.6, Rev. -30.9)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where stocks eventually shrugged off the initial choppy mood and ramped up heading into the close with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid a lower yield environment.
  • ASX 200 was underpinned amid a slew of earnings releases and with the consumer-related sectors leading the gains after Australia’s largest retailer Wesfarmers reported a 9% increase in revenue.
  • Nikkei 225 gained from the open with the index unfazed by firm Tokyo CPI data which printed its fastest pace of increase since 2014, as this is seen as unlikely to trigger an adjustment of BoJ policy.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood as participants digested a slew of earnings results including PetroChina’s record profit and with tech stocks buoyed after delisting concerns were soothed by reports that China and the US are nearing a deal regarding company audits.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US suspended 26 US flights by Chinese carriers after China’s COVID action limited some US flights, according to the DOT cited by Reuters.
  • Chinese state planner official says domestic inflation is likely to quicken slightly later in 2022 and early next year.
  • China has asked some US-listed Chinese companies and their audit firms to make preparations for American inspections in Hong Kong, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chinese Financial Regulators have informally told lenders to make more loans, and raise some banks’ loan quotas and loan-growth requirements, according to Reuters sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Tokyo CPI YY (Aug) 2.9% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 1.4% vs Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.02 PTS OR 0.31%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 201.66 OR 1,01%    /The Nikkei closed UP 162.37 OR % 0.57.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.74%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.8627//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8674//    /Oil DOWN TO 93.68  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 100.63//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/WATER CRISIS

A good commentary as zero hedge outlines that China has another major problem on its hands: a water crisis to go along with an energy crisis

(zerohedge)

China’s Water Crisis Could Trigger Global Catastrophe

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 11:20 PM

China’s water crisis is nothing new, but it’s gotten worse – and is now on the ‘brink of catastrophe and could trigger a global catastrophe, according to Foreign Affairs.

Given the country’s overriding importance to the global economy, potential water-driven disruptions beginning in China would rapidly reverberate through food, energy, and materials markets around the world and create economic and political turbulence for years to come. -Foreign Affairs

For starters, there’s no substitute for water – which is essential for food production, electricity generation and sustaining all life on earth.

In China, which consumes ten billion barrels of water per day (approximately 700x its daily oil consumption), decades of economic and population growth have pushed northern China’s water system to unsustainable levels.

According to the report, the per-capita water supply around the North China Plain at the end of 2020 was nearly 50% below the UN’s definition of acute water scarcity at 253 cubic meters. Other major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, are at similar (or lower) levels. 

For comparison, Egypt had per-capita freshwater resources of 570 cubic meters, and has nowhere near as large of a manufacturing base as China.

Not fit for human consumption

Also worrisome, is that 19% of China’s surface water is not fit for human consumption according to China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Roughly 7% was deemed unfit for any use at all.

Groundwater was worse – with around 30% considered unfit for consumption, and 16% unfit for any use.

In order to utilize this water, Beijing will need to make major investments in treatment infrastructure, which will require a significant increase in electricity usage in order to power the equipment.

Working against progress is China’s farming and industrial industries, which dump contaminants into the country’s groundwater – potentially setting the stage for decades of additional impairments.

Data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization indicate that China uses nearly two and a half times as much fertilizer and four times as much pesticide as the United States does despite having 25 percent less arable land.

For decades, Beijing has generally chosen to conceal the full extent of China’s environmental problems to limit potential public backlash and to avoid questions about the competence and capacity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This lack of transparency suggests that an escalation to acute water distress could be far closer than most outside observers realize—increasing the chances that the world will be ill prepared for such a calamity. -Foreign Affairs

The core problem is the overpumping of aquifers under the Northern China Plain – which according to NASA GRACE satellites, are more overdrawn than those of the Ogallala Aquifer under the Great Plains in the US – which is one of the world’s most imperiled sources of agricultural water.

In some instances, groundwater levels have gotten so low that underground aquifers have collapsed – triggering a phenomenon called Land Subsidence, which can cause the ground to cave in over large areas, which in some case renders the aquifer unusable in the future.

In 2003, Beijing launched a $60 billion “South-to-North Water Transfer Project” to use waters from the Yangtze River to replenish the north.

Meanwhile, China has deployed cloud seeding technologies to lace the clouds with silver iodide or liquid nitrogen in order to stimulate rainfall. It’s also relocated heavy industries away from dry regions.

In April 2022, Vice Minister of Water Resources Wei Shanzhong estimated that China could end up spending $100 billion annually on water-related projects.

It might not be enough, however.

Despite highly innovative programs to improve water availability, some scholars estimate that water supply could fall short of demand by 25 percent by 2030—a situation that would by definition force major adjustments in society. Experiences to date on the North China Plain enhance concern and illustrate the scale of additional needed hydraulic intervention. Despite nearly a decade of importing Yangtze valley water supplies to high-stress areas such as Beijing, large-scale depletion of stored groundwater continues in other nearby areas, such as Hebei and Tianjin. -Foreign Affairs

The result of a worsening drought will, of course, mean less food.

60% of China’s wheat, 45% of its corn, 35% of its cotton and 64% of its peanuts come from the at-risk North China Plain – where, in the example of wheat, their annual production of more than 80 million tons is on par with Russia’s annual output, while their 125 million tons of corn is nearly 3x Ukraine’s prewar production.

In order to sustain these harvests, water is being pumped to farms faster than nature can replenish it. According to satellite data, between 2003 and 2010, Northern China lost as much groundwater as Beijing consumes annually – leaving farmers struggling to find new sources.

If the North China Plain suffers a 33% crop loss due to water insufficiency, China would need to import roughly 20% of the world’s internationally traded corn and 13% of the world’s wheat.

Although China has stockpiled the world’s largest grain reserves, the country is not immune to a multiyear yield shortfall. This would likely force China’s food traders, including large state-owned enterprises such as COFCO and Sinograin, into global markets on an emergency basis to secure additional supplies. This in turn could trigger food price spikes in high-income countries, while rendering key food items economically inaccessible to hundreds of millions of people in poorer countries. The impacts of this water-driven food shortage could be far worse than the food-related unrest that swept across lower- and middle-income countries in 2007 and 2008 and would drive migration and exacerbate political polarization already present in Europe and the United States. -Foreign Affairs

A shocking problem

China’s water woes go beyond agriculture – with around 90% of the country’s electrical grid reliant on extensive water resources – “particularly hydro, coal, and even nuclear generation, which needs large and steady water supplies for steam condensers and to cool reactor cores and used fuel rods” according to the report.

If China lost 15% of its hydropower production in any given year due to low water levels, it would have to increase electricity output via other means by an amount equal to what Egypt consumes in a year – something that only coal would be able to accomplish.

Except – the process of mining and preparing coal is also highly water intensive. And while seawater can be used to cool the limited coastal coal sources, much of the sooty resource is located inland and rely on groundwater, rivers and lakes.

Read the rest here…

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK/

Due to the energy crisis 70% of British pubs may not survive this winter

(zerohedge)

“Doomsday Scenario:” 70% Of British Pubs May Not Survive Winter As Power Costs Skyrocket

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 04:15 AM

A troubling survey commissioned by trade publication the Morning Advisor revealed the entire British pub industry could be on the brink of a tsunami of closures this winter if the government fails to intervene in power markets to ease cost pressures.

According to the survey, 70% of respondents say if electricity prices continue to soar, they will be unable to operate and forced to close up shop — this would dramatically alter the landscape of pubs by next spring. 

More than 65% of the pubs surveyed said power costs rose more than 100%, 30% said utility costs jumped 200%, and 8% experienced 500% increases. Most pubs warned they couldn’t afford the exponential rise in energy costs. 

One pub told The Guardian the utility company had quoted them a 600% increase in power costs versus their current contract. 

Heath Ball, managing director of the Frisco Group, which operates three pubs across the southeast of England, offered an apocalyptic warning that pubs were facing a “doomsday scenario” in just a few months when the cold season begins. 

“This energy bill crisis comes on the back of the most testing of times as businesses try to recover from the Covid crisis and I think it poses an even greater threat to the survival of pubs,” Ball told the Morning Advertiser.

He even said some pubs were being rejected new power contacts because utilities deemed them “high risk.” Ball said lawmakers need to resolve the energy crisis soon or “find a solution to this now or face mass pub and restaurant closures.” 

There are more than 46,000 pubs across the UK in 2021, according to British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), with about half of them being independents.

Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the BBPA, said:

“Rising energy bills are putting pubs in real jeopardy. Sudden, extreme price hikes are already forcing publicans to make tough choices, from reducing opening hours to cutting options on their menus. 

“We are experiencing a perfect storm that is not only shrinking but eradicating profitability margins. We urgently need an energy price cap for small businesses before extortionate bills cripple pubs and we lose them forever in communities across the country.”

Then there’s the supply of British pubs’ life and soul: beer. A shortage in fertilizer production due to soaring natural gas costs has slashed the availability of carbon dioxide, an essential ingredient in producing carbonated drinks, including beer. This will undoubtedly make the situation worse for pubs:

McClarkin told Fortune:

“A guaranteed supply of CO2 is essential for operations across pub and brewing businesses and this announcement comes at a time when they are already facing extreme rising costs, threatening to close businesses and damage people’s livelihoods.”

Without government support, a large swath of the UK pub industry could be wiped out this winter. When will Europeans wake up that Western sanctions are completely backfiring and crushing their way of life at the expense of NATO’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine?

end

Calls Between Energy Traders, UK Grid Operator Reveal Power Crisis Might Be Far Worse Than Expected

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 01:08 PM

Once a week, energy traders hop on a call with UK’s electricity network operator, National Grid, managers to ask a series of questions about the state of power markets. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas‘ latest opinion piece reveals some of these conversations between traders and managers that paint a rather dark winter for the UK. 

Here are a series of questions from power traders from last week’s call:

“Are you war-gaming possible options for if/when cross-border trading collapses under security of supply pressures this winter?”

 And another: “Can we have a session where we talk through the emergency arrangements?” 

Another participant said that the forecast for demand-and-supply electricity balance showed “how bad the winter could be for anyone who can do the maths.”

The same caller was blunt about the grid’s own predictions: “I don’t think you believe what you’ve written, and nobody else does.”

One trader asked a question about intervention during a winter crisis:

 “Based on where winter ’22 products are trading, where does this position yourself with respect to securing power over the winter?” asked one participant. 

Why are energy traders so concerned about grid instabilities in the months ahead? Well, UK power prices for winter are going parabolic at about £1,000 per megawatt hour, up from £242 in June. The move is due to declining Russian energy supplies to Europe ahead of winter. 

As Blas pointed out, the British government is offering an optimistic tone about there’s nothing to worry about: 

“Households, businesses and industry can be confident they will get the electricity and gas that they need over the winter,” Downing Street said earlier this week. “That’s because we have one of the most reliable and diverse energy systems in the world.”

Traders are also concerned that if a system-stress event hits a neighboring country and cross-border electricity flows are switched off, that could spark even more chaos for the UK grid. 

“Please, the market needs to understand more fully how interconnectors are to be used in periods of very high prices and potential generation shortfall,” one market participant said last week.

Traders also discussed demand destruction by households and businesses because of soaring power costs. 

“What level of demand reduction, demand destruction, are you forecasting for the winter ahead from commercial industrial consumers as a price response?” was one recent example.

Another repeated the request: “What demand destruction, if any, is included in your demand forecast for this winter for residential and industry?” 

Blas said grid managers could not forecast any figures related to demand destruction to the traders. 

He concluded with three critical takeaways after listening to several calls with traders and grid managers: 

 First, the looming power emergency is worse than many industry executives publicly acknowledge, and a lot more dangerous than the government admits. Second, high prices are a big problem, but security of supply is at risk, too. Third, time is running out to prepare before temperatures start to drop.

Blas warned: “European governments have a duty to come clean with their voters about the magnitude of the coming crisis.” 

END

CZECH REPUBIC/EUROPE

Now it its the Czech’s turn to warn:  the Czech President Zeman blames the “green madness” for the energy crisis and he is right

(Watson//SummitNews)

“I’m Afraid” – Czech President Blames “Green Madness” For Energy Crisis

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Czech President Miloš Zeman has blamed “green madness” for the energy crisis and warned that the abolition of cars with internal combustion engines will only prolong the agony.

Zeman said the primary cause of the crisis was not the Ukraine war, but “green fanaticism” that has left European countries dependent on energy sources that cannot meet demand.

“Whether it’s called the Green Deal or whatever, I’m afraid. However, I won’t be here anymore when we find out where the green madness will take us,” said Zeman.

“The abolition of cars with internal combustion engines will lead to the advent of far more demanding electromobility. The biggest consumers of electricity will be electric cars with a short range and a high price,” he added.

The comments were made amidst controversy in the Czech Republic caused by new government regulations which mandate schools, hospitals, and households reduce their temperature by up to six degrees Celsius to save energy.

Owners of care homes for the elderly complained that old people cannot live in a 20°C environment without it posing a threat to their health.

“It is not permissible for the elderly to spend 100 percent of their time in spaces at 20°C and below. It is life-threatening to bathe frail seniors in a room heated to only 20°C when they get cold quickly,” said Daniela Lusková, vice-president of the Association of Social Service Providers.

However, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health insisted that regulations were made in consultation with professional scientific opinion.

Similar rules have already been enforced in Germany, where thermostats in public buildings are being limited to 19 degrees Celsius, and in Spain, where at the height of summer, non-residential buildings can set the temperature no lower than 27°C.

Back in May, Italy began rationing electricity to ‘support Ukraine’, with public buildings banned from running air conditioning at lower than 25°C or heating higher than 19°C.

As we highlighted earlier, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles has warned that Europeans are about to endure a “winter of great suffering” as a result of Russia fully suspending gas supplies during the freezing months.

As we document in the video below, the disastrous pursuit of ‘net zero’ has partly caused the energy crisis because it has left many countries dependent on energy sources that are not fit for purpose.

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

end

SPAIN

Now it is Spain warning of a winter of great suffering

(Watson/SummitNews)

Spanish Official Warns Of “Winter Of Great Suffering”

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A top Spanish official has warned that Europeans are about to endure a “winter of great suffering” as a result of Russia fully suspending gas supplies during the freezing months.

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles made the comments during an appearance on Radio National.

“We are going to have a winter of great suffering,” said the cabinet member, adding, “In Europe, we have to work hard to be ready to deal with it.”

Robles made reference to deliveries by Russian energy giant Gazprom already being throttled and claimed it was politically motivated, although Gazprom claims the real reason is Ukraine refusing to allow the gas to run through its territory.

Despite the energy shortage coming partly as a result of NATO powers seeking to prolong the war between Russia and Ukraine, Robles insisted that support for Ukraine should continue.

Putin “cannot win,” according to Robles, who said, “I want to believe that the political forces will rise to the occasion.”

She added that many in Spain will find it difficult to support gas rationing, despite this being recommended for all member states by EU leadership.

As we previously highlighted, many European countries are already imposing energy rationing in the form of new rules that dictate thermostat controls.

In Spain, at the height of summer, authorities have controversially banned air conditioning from dropping below 27°C (80.6°F) in all non-residential buildings, including shops, cinemas and cafes.

Onerous fines for those who flout the rules run all the way up to €600,000 euros for “serious violations.”

As we document in the video below, a winter of discontent is building to a crescendo as a result of western support for ‘the current thing’ as well as disastrous net zero green energy policies.

END

GERMANY

Germany reports on a shortage of toilet paper amid the energy crisis (gas shortage)

(zerohedge)

Germany Is Venezuela? Toilet Paper Shortage Looms Amid Energy Crisis

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Driven by the imminent energy crisis accelerating across Europe, and policymakers’ refusal to acquiesce because “we have to save democracy in Ukraine”, the German paper industry is warning of supply bottlenecks for toilet paper.

As Focus.de reports, the paper industry is sounding the alarm: In the event of a gas shortage, it would no longer be possible to produce enough toilet paper.

For the “International Day of Toilet Paper” on Friday , the German paper industry warns of new bottlenecks.

Martin Krengel, Vice President of the Association “The Paper Industry”, said:

“We are particularly dependent on gas for the production of tissue paper. Without it, we will no longer be able to provide security of supply,” 

According to data provided by Die Papierindustrie, each German citizen uses an average of 134 rolls of toilet paper per year. 

“In the current energy crisis, our top priority is to provide people with this important commodity,” Krengel stressed.

The last time Germany suffered a toilet paper shortage was at the start of the pandemic, which led to hoarding.

Are hyperinflating electricity costs and toilet paper shortages a sign of things to come? What next? Eating flamingoes like the Venezuelans?

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

Russia/Ukraine

Zelensky Warns Of “Radiation Disaster” As Reconnected Nuclear Reactor Is Building Up Capacity

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 02:25 PM

A Friday statement by Ukraine’s Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom confirmed that “Today, on August 26, 2022, at 14:04, one of the Zaporizhzhia NPP’s reactors, which was stopped yesterday, has been reconnected to the power grid. It is building up capacity.”

This after multiple instances of damage to transmission lines resulted in the entire plant being disconnected from the energy grid the day prior (which is a first in the plant’s history), reportedly the result of fires which comes amid ongoing fighting and shelling. Some 500 Russian troops have controlled the complex since March, but it has continued supplying electricity to Ukraine, though some temporary regional blackouts were reported this week.

There were reported temporary disruptions into Thursday based on the hours-long power grid stoppage to the plant, signaling an increasingly dangerous and potentially volatile situation at the site. 

In a Thursday night address to the nation, Ukraine’s President Zelensky said, “I want to assure all Ukrainians: We are doing everything to prevent an emergency scenario.” He added: “It depends not only on our state. The key thing is that international pressure is needed to force the occupiers to immediately withdraw.”

He went further to say that Europe is facing a “radiation disaster”: “The world must understand what a threat this is: if the diesel generators hadn’t turned on, if the automation and our staff of the plant had not reacted after the blackout, then we would already be forced to overcome the consequences of the radiation accident,” Zelensky said in the televised speech. “Russia has put Ukraine and all Europeans in a situation one step away from a radiation disaster.”

However, at this point, Bloomberg is citing Energoatom to summarize the current status as follows:

There are no immediate safety concerns and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is being powered through a restored electricity line, Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear operator Energoatom said. Transmission lines from the plant have also been repaired, while one unit was also reconnected to the country’s grid, supplying electricity to the system, it said. After Russia seized the plant, two units out of six were operating.

The report also reviews that even amid the current standoff, there are multiple layers of safety systems in place: 

Nuclear power plants operate with multiple layers of safety systems. Zaporizhzhia has several high-voltage cables connecting the station to Ukraine’s electricity grid. A large substation at the complex can also convert power generated from the plant into electricity used for cooling systems. The last line of defense is diesel generators that can be used to prevent a meltdown.

Yet it very obviously continues to be a precarious and highly unpredictable situation, with an IAEA team said to be arriving to inspect the plant within the coming days.

Some Ukrainian government officials as well as Western leaders have been warning of “another Chernobyl” – also as the Biden administration has called for a demilitarized zone around it…

The earlier power disconnection was reportedly due to fires as nearby ash pits, which Energoatom in its initial statement on the crisis blamed on Russian forces: “The actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) from the power grid – the first in the history of the plant,” it stated.

If saner minds prevail, this situation alone is reason for all parties to pursue ceasefire talks at the same table as urgently as possible. But at the moment the possibility looks ever more distant, based on the prevailing rhetoric.

END

Combined Arms-A Look At Russian Air Ops in the Donbas – A Son of the New American Revolution

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:15 AM (51 minutes ago)
to

In the west, MSM is consistent in trying to tell the public that war is being won by the Ukrainians with so called magic weapons shipped there. Video’s of those same weapons being destroyed by drones and artillery paints a much different picture. Even video’s of Ukrainians leaving the dead and critically wounded to die and rot to be eaten by various carrion is beyond sickening. Armies historically look after the dead and wounded but not these folks. The other day the media and  Zelensky spoke of 22 dead but ignored reality that over 200 soldiers and their equipment were killed on the way to the front line at a railway station. Where is the truth in this terribly sad caper? Worse, one hears that the Yanks are now officially going to pick a 2 or 3 star General to officially call this a mission so that Rangers being sent can officially be described as killed in action on a mission. One supposes that the thousands of already dead Americans will be classed under this mission as KIA.  Totally tragic is this affair. And we can be sure we publicly we will not see truth. Truth itself is becoming scarcer by the day and daily trust and confidence is being lessened in governments globally. Watch what happens in Europe as the public confronts energy poverty and food scarcity. Pup life will be radically different. And violence from unchecked immigrants will find new levels of hurt.
As for the tragic nature of this conflict, the tempo is rising. For measured time now Russians have kept the front line troops pinned down with artillery while they have been attacking trained equipped troops far from the front lines to decimate their fighting ability. Everyone understands these front line troops are expendable and no match for hardened troops. So one day soon expect to see a massive 3 pronged strike that will shock because publicly people will have been lulled to thinking this is not in cards. And no amount of crying or yelling or noise will change what comes.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Main stream media reporting an increase in diseases due to the vaccine

(EpochTimes)

Drastic Increase In Non-Infectious Diseases In Military Explained As Data Glitch: Whistleblower

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Phillip via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A medical Army officer who discovered a sudden increase in disease coinciding with reports of side effects alongside COVID-19 vaccines—which the Army has dismissed as a data glitch—said he faces involuntary separation after being convicted but not punished for disobeying COVID-19 protocol.

In January 2022, First Lt. Mark Bashaw, a preventive medicine officer at the Army, started noticing some “alarming signals” within the defense epidemiological database.

The Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), which tracks disease and injuries of 1.3 million active component service members, showed during the pandemic a significant increase in reports of cancers, myocarditis, and pericarditis; as well as some other diseases like male infertility, tumors, a lung disease caused by blood clots, and HIV, Bashaw said.

All these illnesses are listed in FDA documentation as potential adverse reactions associated with COVID-19 vaccines, Bashaw told EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program in an interview on Aug. 1.

Seeing increases in cases of these illnesses as high as 50 percent or 100 percent in some situations, Bashaw stepped forward as a whistleblower to raise concerns about his findings.

Bashaw’s whistleblower declaration, submitted to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) who is facilitating the sharing of information from early investigations of COVID-19 products with Congress, said he saw the increasing incidence of these disorders observed in DMED as “very troubling.”

Specifically, the number of cancer cases among active service members in 2021 nearly tripled in comparison with the average number of cancer instances per year from 2016 to 2020, Bashaw said in his declaration.

Bashaw’s responsibilities as a preventive medicine officer, with a specialty in entomology, include “participating in fact-finding inquiries and investigations to determine potential public health risk to DoD [Department of Defense] personnel from diseases caused by insects and other non-battle related injuries.”

Glitch in DMED

A week after this information was brought out in January in a “COVID-19: Second Opinion” roundtable organized by Johnson, the data in DMED changed, Bashaw said, and all of these troubling spikes in diseases and injuries “seemed to have disappeared and been realigned with previous years.”

Curiously, the glitch didn’t affect the data from 2021, which remained the same. Instead, the corrected data saw the data for prior years increased, which made the 2021 data look normal and in line with the running average, Bashaw explained.

In response to the whistleblower claims, spokesperson for the health agency of the Department of Defense Peter Graves told PolitiFact that the data in DMED “was incorrect for the years 2016-2020,” so the system was taken offline to correct the root cause of the data corruption, which didn’t impact data from 2021.

After the roundtable, Johnson sent three letters to the Department of Defense (DoD) requesting an explanation of the sudden increase in medical diagnosis and the changes in the DMED data.

The concern is that these increases may be related to the COVID-19 vaccines that our servicemen and women have been mandated to take,” Johnson said in one of his letters.

The senator also sent a letter to the technology company that manages DMED asking for clarification of all data integrity issues uncovered in the database.

Although Johnson received some responses from the tech company, there has not been still a “solid, rational explanation” as to why a glitch occurred in the database and what it was, Bashaw said.

After the glitch, Bashaw pulled out data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) for injuries related to viral vaccines to compare to his findings on DMED. He compared the average of the last 24 years to data for 2021 and found an eleven-fold increase in the number of suspected adverse incidents reported in 2021.

I compared it to the average of the last 24 years, it’s a 1,100 percent increase in 2021. And the only difference we had in 2021 was the rollout of these experimental emergency use authorized COVID-19 vaccines,” Bashaw said.

VAERS is managed by agencies of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and serves as “a national early warning system to detect possible safety problems in U.S.-licensed vaccines,” according to HHS’s website.

Though reporting to VAERS is voluntary for individuals, “healthcare professionals are required to report certain adverse events, and vaccine manufacturers are required to report all adverse events that come to their attention,” the website says. However, non-professionals are also able to make entries.

Emergency Use Authorized Products

Bashaw tried to raise his concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccines to his leadership at the army through the proper channels, recommending that it change its risk communication strategy for the vaccine from ”safe and effective “ to “there might be some problems.”

However, his concerns were not addressed, Bashaw said. “And then, later, I was targeted due to my own [COVID-19] vaccination status.”

Bashaw said he was “forced into an experimental emergency use authorized testing protocol, which was only for the unvaccinated.”

He questioned the policy, saying that forcing unvaccinated individuals into such a testing regimen seems “coercive” and “kind of punitive.”

Bashaw invoked the provisions of the United States Code, which gives liability protection for epidemic products authorized for emergency use to manufacturers and distributors of the product, the government, and medical personnel who administer the product.

However, the perspective of the individual who chooses to use these products or to whom the product is administered is not considered by this law despite their taking on all the burden of risk. “For this reason, [they should have] the ability to accept or refuse these products,” Bashaw said.

“It’s my job as a medical officer in general, to warn individuals, or at least try to communicate [to them] what they might be getting themselves into with these products.”

Bashaw pointed out that the individual’s right to accept or refuse administration of these products and to informed consent has also been written down in the United States Code, specifically 21 U.S. Code § 360bbb–3.

Individuals to whom the product is authorized for emergency use should be informed “of the significant known and potential benefits and risks of such use, and of the extent to which such benefits and risks are unknown,” the said law stipulates.

This applies not only to the experimental vaccines but also to COVID-19 testing procedures and the wearing of masks, Bashaw said.

Targeted for Disobeying COVID-19 Rules

Bashaw has been court-martialed for disobeying the mandated COVID-19 protocol. He challenged the accusation saying that the order to follow the protocol disregarded the individual’s right to informed consent guaranteed by U.S. law.

The court convicted Bashaw, but the judge did not hand down any punishment and recommended to the commanding general to drop the conviction, Bashaw said, but the general upheld the conviction.

After the conviction, the Army initiated Bashaw’s involuntary separation from service after 17 years of honorable service. His expected promotion to captain was also withheld, the officer said.

The justification for his discharge was that the army lost trust in his “capabilities as an officer over the past seven months,” Bashaw explained.

Bashaw filed a rebuttal, hoping to reverse its course.

In addition, Bashaw filed a whistleblower complaint at DoD, but the decision was made that there was no retaliation against him, and the case was closed out. He said that he then filed another complaint which exercises his right guaranteed by the code of military justice to challenge such decisions.

Read more here…

END

Actually to tell you the truth: there is no benefit to anybody

(zerohedge)

Pfizer’s Paxlovid Shows No Benefit In Younger Adults: Study

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Pfizer’s Covid-19 pill, which President Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci all experienced “rare” rebound cases after taking, provides ‘little or no benefit for younger adults,’ according to the Washington Post, citing an Israeli study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The results from a 109,000-patient Israeli study are likely to renew questions about the U.S. government’s use of Paxlovid, which has become the go-to treatment for COVID-19 due to its at-home convenience. The Biden administration has spent more than $10 billion purchasing the drug and making it available at thousands of pharmacies through its test-and-treat initiative.

Researchers found that while the drug reduced hospitalizations among those aged 65 and older by around 75% when taken shortly after infection, those aged between 40 and 65 saw no measurable benefit

“Paxlovid will remain important for people at the highest risk of severe COVID-19, such as seniors and those with compromised immune systems,” said Dr. David Boulware, a University of Minnesota researcher and physician. “But for the vast majority of Americans who are now eligible, this really doesn’t have a lot of benefit.

The FDA authorized Paxlovid late last year for adults and children 12 and older who are considered high risk – which includes the obese, diabetics, and those with heart disease. Over 42% of US adults are considered obese – around 138 million people, according to the CDC.

Earlier this summer, Pfizer acknowledged that an independent study of Paxlovid showed no significant benefit in healthy adults – vaccinated or not.

Just under 4 million prescriptions of the 5-day treatment have been filled since it was authorized, according to federal records.

On Wednesday, White House spokesman Kevin Munoz did damage control for Pfizer – telling the Post in an email that Paxlovid helps reduce hospitalizations in people 50 and older according to several recent non-peer-reviewed papers.

“Risk for severe outcomes from COVID is along a gradient, and the growing body of evidence is showing that individuals between the ages of 50 and 64 can also benefit from Paxlovid,” said Munoz.

 

end

This is worth reading!

Research strongly suggests COVID-19 virus enters the brain | Newsroom

Inbox

Robert Hryniak8:48 AM (8 minutes ago)
to

Wow .. is there not a end to this horrible show ?
https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/research-strongly-suggests-covid-19-virus-enters-brain


Paul Alexander..

BOOM! Gloves coming off now! Australia waking up! ‘This was a whole load of bullshit! We have been had. We are going to hunt you down, the people who are guilty, we are going to hold you accountable..

we will expose your global agenda because I love my kids and grand kids and we are going to save this country so that the people of Australia can be free again’! Encouraging from a Commonwealth nation

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 25

SOURCE

end

Open in browserFauci said he did not order the CODE RED (shutdowns) when in fact it was Birx & Fauci who were architects of lockdown lunacy; FOX’s Hannity now says he never said to get vaxxed; wtf? Siegal? Cavuto?
What about the head vaccine shill Dr. Marc Siegel? FOX must be insane to try to lie that FOX was not a lead COVID vaccine shill with CNN; what about Neil Cavuto & his vaccine shilling for FOX!
Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 25

Fauci: ‘I Didn’t Recommend Locking Anything Down’ During COVIDTom Elliott @tomselliottFauci tells Cavuto “We need to make sure that your listeners understand, I didn’t shut down anything … I don’t think [the lockdowns] irreparably damaged anyone.”
August 23rd 2022551 Retweets1,540
Likes

Yet we have this:”When it became clear that we had community spread in the country, with a few cases of community spread — this was way before there was a major explosion like we saw in the Northeastern corridor driven by New York City metropolitan area — I recommended to the president that we shut the country down,” Fauci told students
 at his alma mater when asked about the most crucial decision he’d made. “Unfortunately, since we actually did not shut down completely the way China did, the way Korea did, the way Taiwan did, we actually did see spread even though we shut down.”So we know Fauci and Birx ordered the lockdown CODE RED, he did and we will hound this person down legally, in a proper court, must be proper allowed processes, proper hearings, he will be able to defend all his actions legally, this is a good governance society, so we operate in a civil manner, and we want the truth and he ordered the CODE RED lockdowns! we know we have FAUCI by his SHORT AND CURLIES, we do…we just got to be brave and go after these people legally in proper legal forums. All of them, Fauci, Hahn, Birx, Francis Collins (top dog), Bourla, Bancel, Azar, Walensky, Redfield etc. Proper public inquiries.FOX’s Hannity, Cavuto, and Siegal are the biggest vaccine shill freaks, crazy idiots who may themselves have caused deaths of people who listened to these idiots!Yes Emerald, FOX’s Sean Hannity is America’s dumbest Pfizer salesman.“And it absolutely makes sense for many Americans to get vaccinated. I believe in science, I believe in the science of vaccination.” — Sean Hannity, July 2021
source
see Emerald Robinson (support her)
end
Of excess-mortality & vaccine: dramatic rise in US excess death shortly after booster rollout early 2022; alarming U.S. Insurance Report Shows Double Excess Mortality in 35-44 Age Group in Q3 2021
In 2020, after the pandemic struck, before vaccines came, a surge in COVID-19 related excess mortality seen & 25% of all excess mortality is not COVID; points to deaths from lockdown & school closure

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 25



Now to excess deaths in America broken down by age; 25 to 54 year olds, take a look at the excess deaths in America. This 3rd Q of 2021 was the peak of vaccine mandates in the US.The U.S. Society of Actuaries Research Institute has issued a report on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic which includes around 90% of all Group Term Life insurance, thus providing quite a broad picture of excess mortality among the insured during the period up to and including Q1 2022.As might be expected, 80% of the excess claims over the period are related to COVID-19. In 2020, after the pandemic struck, but before vaccines were available, we see a surge in COVID-19 related excess mortality, but interestingly around a quarter of all the excess mortality is not COVID-19 related. This suggests that lockdowns and restrictions were already having a strong impact on mortality. The vaccination programme started in December 2020 but really took of in Q1 2021 when 172 million doses were administered. The cumulative growth in COVID-19 cases was much slower in Q1 2021 than towards the end of 2020, but interestingly we see a large spike in COVID-19 related excess mortality during this period.The most interesting period in 2021 however is Q3, where not only COVID-19-related but Non-COVID-19 excess mortality spikes up to almost 9%, then falls in Q4 and remains at around 5% throughout Q1 2022, which is an alarming figure.When those figures are broken down by age we see a staggering rise in excess mortality in younger age-groups, close to and even up to double the expected mortality for people between 25 and 55. The report does not provide a deeper analysis of this, such as breaking it down according to cause of death. So, what might cause the deaths of twice as many people in their prime of life compared with what might be expected in a normal situation? What was different?The report provides good data on mortality during the pandemic and it will be interesting to see how Q2 this year plays out, given that we see indications of worrying excess mortality not explained by COVID-19 in many countries. Further analysis, especially of the staggering mortality figures among younger people, is urgently needed. It is high time to recognize and honestly start focusing on the potentially devastating effect of the mass-vaccination drive.’
SOURCE
end


Stew Peters Exclusive: Trump HHS Senior Pandemic Official Dr. Paul Elias Alexander: “I Was Brought To Washington by Congress & Senate Members To Help Dismantle & Re-organize The CDC for the Better”
The secret request came from members on both sides, democrats & republicans which was very gratifying & showed me that there were people in government trying to fix the corrupted health agencies

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 26//

My official position was ‘Senior COVID Pandemic Advisor to the Trump administration’. My unofficial position reported (quietly) to government officials (congress and senate) and tasked with a report for congress that would culminate in hearings that would initiate the re-organization (re-make) of CDC (other health agencies to follow), given it’s known near 2 decades of operating as a political government tool, dramatic errors, politicization, bias, and epidemiological failings.SOURCE:Breaking Exclusive: Trump HHS Senior Official: “I Was Brought To Dismantle The CDC”CDC’s ROCHELLE, why the epiphany? Why the ‘come to Jesus’ now? Admitting CDC’s ‘pretty dramatic’ mistakes is breath taking for you yourself attacked me & the fraud Birx; huge HUGS Rochelle! props!Walensky to staff: “A watershed moment, CDC has made pretty dramatic mistakes & CDC has to make dramatic systemic changes to protect the safety and health of all Americans’; give the lady a prize!
Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 25
SOURCE:

To be frank, we are responsible for some pretty dramatic, pretty public mistakes. From testing, to data, to communications,” Walensky said to the camera in front of a blue CDC backdrop.”
CBS Evening News @CBSEveningNewsCDC ADMITS MISSTEPS: CBS News has obtained video that CDC Director Rochelle Walensky shared with internal staff this week, in which she admitted her agency made “pretty dramatic” mistakes in handling the COVID pandemic. August 19th 202223 Retweets48 Likes

Vaccine Impact



GLOBAL ISSUES// COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

For your interest…..

What Droughts Have Revealed

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Severe droughts are happening all around the world at the moment, and as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, as rivers and lakes are drying up and reservoirs grow emptier, droughts have revealed historical sites that have long laid underwater as well as new discoveries – some relevant to scientist and others to forensic units.

Infographic: What Droughts Have Revealed | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Spain, the Czech Republic, Italy, Iraq and China, sites of historical value are once against visible – some of them dating back to Roman times or even the Bronze Age.

Archeologist have at times scrambled to take advantage of the droughts, like in the case of the ancient site of Kemune in Iraq. 

Some newer reveals happened when reservoirs drained more recently abandoned villages in Galicia and Catalonia, Spain, and Hesse, Germany.

A new discovery is probably the oldest of the bunch: At Dinosaur Valley State Park in Texas, fossilized dinosaur track that are estimated to be 113 millions years old emerged from a dried-up riverbed.

Also in the U.S., several bodies have been discovered in May, July and August when the water levels of Lake Mead sank. One of the remains was identified as a homicide victim that might be tied to Mafia violence in Las Vegas in the 1950s and 60s.

Another haunting discovery are the so-called hunger stones that are once again visible in the river bed of the Elbe near Decin in the Czech Republic. Inscriptions – likely from the 15th century – tell of a severe past drought and the famine it caused.

The quote “If you see me, weep” is a stark reminder of the power and the horror of natural disasters.

end

Vaccine injury

(Dangers on masking)

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello1:48 AM (6 hours ago)
to me

https://www.theepochtimes.com/albertas-chief-medical-officer-allegedly-withheld-information-on-dangers-of-masking-children-justice-centre-says_4686839.ht

end

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Bas van Geffen

Europe Is Now “Powerless” And Its Inflation And Recession Are About To Get Even More Brutal

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 08:24 AM

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

In yesterday’s daily, we noted how an increasing number of US households is struggling to pay their utility bills. Yet, this situation pales in comparison to the price hikes that European consumers are facing. As a case in point, the OFGEM, UK’s energy regulator, lifted the energy price cap to £3,549 as of 1 October (from £1,971), adding a warning that prices could get “significantly worse” through 2023.

Indeed, yet another sharp move in European energy prices took benchmark rates to new record-highs. The 1 month forward Dutch TTF contract jumped to €311/MWh, while the 1 month French electricity contract reached a mindboggling €750/MWh. The fact that nobody wants to be short power right now certainly doesn’t help either as it reduces liquidity in the market – which may have been exacerbated by ICE’s decision to increase margin requirements on European gas futures.

These unfathomable price rises are adding pressure on European leaders to come up with a solution for the unfolding energy crisis that will stress many households. The Czech Prime Minister said he wants to push for an EU-wide response. One of the options that is being considered is a price cap on gas, but that leaves many risks and questions regarding the design and implementation of any such proposals.

All in all, these developments in the energy complex in Europe suggests that the acceleration in inflation that we pencilled in for Q4 may get more brutal – but so may the recession, if companies shut down production ‘voluntarily (i.e., due to production being uneconomical) or because they are forced to (i.e., rationing).

Even though monetary policy is powerless in such a situation –in the sense that higher rates will not solve the energy shortage– central bankers continue to debate over the value (or damage) of going an additional 25bp at their next policy meeting. The accounts of the July ECB meeting suggested that the central bank won’t slow its pace in the near-term as inflation continues to elude the central bank and risks becoming entrenched in expectations.

Yesterday’s accounts noted that “a very large number of members agreed that it was appropriate to raise the ECB’s key interest rates by 50 basis points”, although “some members argued in favour of 25bp” as this would be consistent with the Council’s earlier communication. As we already concluded after the meeting, this suggests that there was an intrinsic desire even amongst moderate doves to implement a bigger hike, and that it wasn’t a trade-off with the hawks in return for a more potent Transmission Protection Instrument. And even though President Lagarde described the 50bp move as ‘frontloading’, there was nothing in the accounts that suggested that this frontloading should be limited to just the previous meeting or that the ECB is now done with 50bp moves.

In fact, if anything, the discussion regarding the inflation outlook sounded quite hawkish. In summary, the Council concluded that inflation risks had intensified. But whereas Lagarde’s press conference mostly seemed to focus on increased short-term risks, the accounts show growing concern about the medium-term inflation outlook. According to some, even a recession would not necessarily diminish upside risks to inflation – and we would agree to the extent that higher gas prices are now the driving factor behind the worsening outlook for both prices and growth.

The ECB is clearly worried about inflation becoming entrenched in expectations. Although the Council concluded that there were no signs of significant second-round effects yet, repeated upward inflation surprises are increasing the probability of such effects. The ECB particularly seemed concerned about the latest surveys and market-based indicators of inflation expectations: “The probability that markets assigned to high inflation outcomes of above 4% over a five-year horizon five years ahead had risen steadily since the start of the year”, and nearly 20% of the SPF respondents saw inflation remain above 2.5%.

Moreover, the ECB acknowledged that the weak EUR/USD rate is currently mostly a headwind to the Eurozone, as more expensive energy outweighs the benefits of exporters becoming more competitive globally. Interestingly, some members seem to believe that they can prop up the currency with tighter policy. The ECB estimates that about half of the EUR’s depreciation since the start of the year could be attributed to the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. This could be another reason for the ECB to maintain -or even increase- the pace of hikes ahead. However, we still believe that this is futile. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, it’s hard to see how bigger ECB hikes would fundamentally support the EUR – although the ECB may be able to stem the currency’s bleeding.

Day ahead

To that extent, Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole today will be closely watched for hints of direction. With markets still somewhat hopeful that the Fed will make a “dovish pivot” before next summer, Powell’s remarks could make for an unwelcome hawkish wake-up call. That would also be a challenge for the ECB, to the extent that they continue to subscribe to the view that monetary policy differentials –rather than the weak Eurozone outlook and global risk aversion–are a key force behind EUR’s weakness, and hence imported inflation .

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Climbing USA natural gas prices could force the uSA to slash exports of LNG to Europe in order to contain prices domestically

(Slav/OilPrice.com)

Climbing Natural Gas Prices Could Force US To Slash Exports To Europe

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • The United States has emerged as a top natural gas supplier to Europe.
  • High domestic prices could force the United States to curb exports.
  • If imports from the United States slowed, Europe’s energy crisis could worsen.

Natural gas prices in the United States hit the highest in 14 years this week, with the Henry Hub benchmark temporarily topping $10 per million British thermal units. And demand is not going down anytime soon.

The United States has emerged as the biggest supplier of natural gas to troubled Europe, as the latter first slipped into a gas crunch after demand outstripped supply last year. Then it slapped seven packages of sanctions against Russia—its main supplier—for its invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. gas, liquefied and transported to the LNG import terminals in Europe, has been instrumental in filling up Europe’s gas storage caverns ahead of schedule. At the same time, it has highlighted Europe’s vulnerability in the gas supply department: it has virtually no alternatives to U.S. gas, and this has pushed its gas bill ten times higher than what European countries normally spend on gas.

The vulnerability was also highlighted by the production outage at Freeport LNG, which supplies about a fifth of U.S. LNG and which has now said it will not restart production before November. Prices continue higher.

“Virtually all of our fundamental and technical indicators continue to flash green lights toward higher price levels,” Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note cited by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week.

The trading firm also said that U.S. natural gas prices could climb further up as well, close to $12 per million British thermal units in the not-too-distant future.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported this week that LNG prices in Europe had hit a record discount to the European benchmark: the TTF hub in the Netherlands where the gas gets delivered. A discount normally sounds like good news, but this time the discount was the result of a sharp surge in TTF prices after Gazprom said it would be shutting down Nord Stream 1 for unplanned maintenance of its one remaining compressor.

[ZH: For context, EU NatGas is trading at around $500/barrel oil equivalent – around 3x the price of US NatGas…”

Yet because of the surge in U.S. natural gas exports to Europe, U.S. gas prices have become a lot more vulnerable to various events, too. Just this week, the news about the delay in the Freeport LNG restart pushed U.S. gas prices down by 5 percent. The longer-term outlook, however, remains bullish.

Earlier this year, investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg forecast that U.S. natural gas prices were about to take off after European ones before too long. The reasons for the surge were overall tight gas supply and U.S. producers’ new central role as biggest suppliers to Europe. Also, Goehring & Rozencwajg predicted U.S. gas production was nearing a plateau.

“Asian and European natural gas prices stand at $35 per mmbtu, versus $8.20 per mmbtu here in the United States. Given the underlying fundamentals that have now developed in US gas markets, we believe prices are about to surge and converge with international prices within the next six months,” Goehring & Rozencwajg said in May.

This week, Asian LNG prices started the week at some $60 per mmBtu, while European prices for October LNG cargos traded at a little over $60 per mmBtu. This is an almost twofold increase from May, and prices are unlikely to go back down as the race to secure enough gas for the heating season heats up.

This means domestic U.S. gas prices will remain under upward pressure, too, and that will last for a while as well. Reuters reported this week that U.S. producers of liquefied natural gas had closed contracts for the delivery of some 48 million tons of LNG in total, which would lead to an increase in total LNG exports of as much as 60 percent if all planned new terminals are built.

Meanwhile, because there are not enough LNG export terminals to satisfy current demand, gas inventories in the U.S. are on the decline, and it might turn out yet that Goehring & Rozecwajg were right, despite an uptick in gas production.

“We are beginning to see a lag in storage builds that could lead to a precarious situation during the draw season in the event of a harsher-than-expected winter,” Neal Dingmann, energy equities analyst at Truist Securities, told the Wall Street Journal.

“There is potential for a winter U.S. superspike.”

A superspike in gas prices in the U.S. will be really bad news, and not just for the U.S. itself. Europe literally depends on American liquefied gas as it seeks to sever all trade ties with Russia.

But if gas prices rise too high in the U.S., export curbs may be in order as gas is still widely used in the U.S. for electricity generation, and no one wants voters with sky-high electricity bills ahead of the November midterms. And this means Europe will be left in the ditch with not enough gas to last it through winter. For prices, the sky will be the limit.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.9989 UP  0.0018 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY RED 

USA/ YEN 137.02   UP  0.454 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1818 DOWN   0.0005

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.02 POINTS OR 0.31%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 201.66 PTS OR 1.01% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.74%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 201.66 PTS OR  1.01% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.02 PTS  OR 0.31% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.74% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 162.37 OR 0.52%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1744.40

silver:$19.18

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 108.37 DOWN 7  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.37% DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.214% UP 0    AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.58%// UP 11  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.68  UP 13   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.394% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA1.0003 UP  .0003   or 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 137.19 UP 0.628  OR YEN DOWN 63  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1778  DOWN.0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0057 OR 57 BASIS pts  to 1.2995

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.8708 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8838

TURKISH LIRA:  18.19  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.214

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  3.030% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.211 DOWN 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 108.46 UP 3 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 53.02 PTS OR  0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 304.60 POINTS OR 2.30%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 115.71 PTS OR 1.81% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 127.37 OR  1.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 533.55 PTS OR  2.38%

WTI Oil price 92.00  12: EST

Brent Oil:  99.45 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.39  DOWN 0  AND 25/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.394

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9965 DOWN .0006     OR  6 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1738 DOWN  .0084 or  84 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137.44 UP 0.875//YEN DOWN 88 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3032 UP 0.0093  (CDN dollar, DOWN 93 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 92.94

Brent OIL:  100.80

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.041 UP 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.204  DOWN 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.18

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.50  down 0 AND    36 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 1,008.38 PTS OR 3.03 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 538.42 PTS OR 4.10%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.68 UP 3.90 PTS (3,03)%

GLD: $161.76 DOWN $1.99 OR 1.22%

SLV/ $17.63 DOWN 37 CENTS OR 2.09%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

‘Pain Is Coming’: Pro-Powell-Pivot Positioning Pummeled As Hawks Hammer Markets

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 04:00 PM

“Don’t Fight The Fed!”

Powell said he’s prepared to cause some pain to bring down inflation:

“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics:

“Chair Powell’s speech forcefully reiterated the Fed’s intention to tighten policy enough to bring inflation down to target and then keep it here, acknowledging that this likely means ‘…some pain to households and businesses.’ The Fed appears frustrated by market expectations — which we have never shared — of easing next year.

Here’s why Powell was pissed off – thanks to the rip higher in stocks, financial conditions are now easier than when The Fed started tightening!!

Source: Bloomberg

However, Americans face an opposing force:

  • Powell: pain is coming; we are going to crush demand.
  • Biden: midterms are coming, we are going to boost demand, discharge debt and come up with stimmies and new definitions

Short-Term Interest-Rates (STIRs) never bought the ‘pivot’ bullshit and both rate-hike expectations and rate-cut expectations have been pushing hawkishly for two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

September rate-hike odds shifted hawkishly from pre-Powell levels to around a 66% chance of 75bps, 33% of 50bps…

Source: Bloomberg

So the sudden realization among Wall Street’s best and brightest that there is no ‘Powell Pivot’ and never was, sparked mayhem across markets.

Stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today. Nasdaq suffered the biggest drop -4% since early-June (thanks in part to an ugly day from AAPL on anti-trust headlines). The S&P was down 3%…

On the week, Nasdaq was the ugliest horse in the glue factory, dropping almost 5% (worst week since June)…

Today’s hammering sent The Dow, S&P and almost the Nasdaq down to their 100DMAs…

The Dow dropped 1000 points intraday today, back below 33k…

“Most Shorted” stocks were hammered today, erasing all the week’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy was the only sector to end the week green while Tech was wrecked…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were very mixed on the week with the long-end dramatically outperforming (2Y +16bps, 30Y u-1bp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sparked dramatic flattening (further inversion) in the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ripped higher on Powell’s hawkishness today, back into the green for the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were slammed after Powell’s hawkish comments with Bitcoin tanking back below $21,000 to its lowest in six weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the week higher amid OPEC headlines on supply cuts which dominated any recessionary demand threats…

The rise in crude (and wholesale gasoline) suggest the charge lower in pump prices could be set to stall very soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week lower, back around $1750, after being monkeyhammered lower today on Powell’s hawkishness…

Finally, in case you were wondering where this ends. Short-term, the ‘Powell-Pivot’ rally will go (notice that STIRs never fell for the pivot bullshit)…

Source: Bloomberg

And then this?

Source: Bloomberg

Wondering what the catalyst could be? There is $155BN ($36BN in S&P) of CTA selling over the coming month in a down tape..

Will that be enough “pain” for Powell to pivot?

END

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//JACKSON HOLE

Stocks Drop As Rate-Hike Odds Pop After Powell’s Brief Message

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 10:31 AM

While reactions to Fed Chair Powell’s 8 minute message are varied, the markets’ response seems sure – hawkish-er than expected…

The odds of a 75bps hike in September are back above 60%…

The short-end of the yield curve is spiking relative to the long-end…

The yield curve is flattening/inverting even further…

And stocks are sliding fast on the not-dovish-enough message…

The dollar is higher post-Powell…

But the question is – will this hawkish/recession-implying reaction hold in these illiquid markets?

END

Fed’s Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain to households and businesses in Jackson Hole speech

Those looking for Powell to back off from a continuing to fight inflation stance were sorely disappointed. The DOW went from higher to down more than 400. As always, yet again, pitiful silver would be buried by a slumping DOW and was back at lowly S19. JP Morgan continues to do whatever they wish to this market.

And that was the good news for gold and silver as the cabal forces continue to do their thing. Gold took out $1740 to the downside and pitiful silver blew through $19.

The gold open interest fell 2,593 contracts to 457,023. The silver open interest fell another 3,600 contracts to 137,908 contracts. Disgusted investors continue to be forced out of the precious metals arena.

The net of the day so far, and AGAIN, is that the precious metals were to be battered on a Powell FedSpeak day. They never had a chance, which is why gold was so weak this morning despite a weak dollar.

Never had a chance indeed. As the dollar corrected back up, gold was trashed to $1733, the pitiful one got more so, dropping to $18.75. Make that $8.66. Each time I check in the PM prices worsen. Same drill with silver, day after day, year after year. The DOW can soar and it means nothing for silver, But have the tank, now down over 600, and it is all she wrote its price. The hypocrisy of it all is nauseating.

The gold/silver ratio rose to 92.32

ii) USA DATA//

Slight drop in the pCE deflator

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Cools Modestly From 40-Year-Highs, Savings-Rate Hits 13-Year-Low

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 08:37 AM

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – PCE Deflator – was expected to slow in July data and it did with the headline dropping from +6.8% YoY to +6.3% YoY (cooler than the +6.4% YoY expected). Core PCE also slowed from +4.8% YoY to +4.6% YoY (also below expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, headline PCE remains very close to 40 year highs, though this is the first MoM drop in the headline PCE since the peak of the COVID lockdown crisis in April 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Americans’ personal income and spending (on a notional basis) were expected to rise in July and they did but missed expectations dramatically, rising just 0.2% MoM and 0.1% MoM respectively (vs +0.6% MoM and +0.5% MoM respectively). That is the weakest MoM growth in incomes since January and weakest spending since December…

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, both private sector and govt wage growth slowed in July:

  • Private worker wages up 11.0% Y/Y in July, down from 11.4% and lowest since March 2021
  • Govt worker wages up 4.1% Y/Y in July, down from 5.0% and lowest since March 2021

Finally, all of this means the savings rate fell further to 5.0% – the lowest since August 2009

Source: Bloomberg

And we suspect Powell’s messaging of further hikes and more pain to come will mean less saving and more credit card spending to cover the cost of living… and that doesn’t end well for anyone.

END

UMich Inflation Expectations Ease Further, Consumer Sentiment Bounces Off Record Lows

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 10:08 AM

While sentiment should be front-and-center (dragging near record lows), thanks to Fed Chair Powell’s previous comments, all everyone wants to know is what University of Michigan survey respondents think will happen to inflation.

UMICH inflation expectations eased more intra-month from +5.2% in July to +5.0% flash August to +4.8% final August…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, this is the final print for August (after the preliminary data showed a small uptick from record lows).

Away from that component, UMICH headline sentiment was expected to modestly increase in the final print from the flash print and it did with the headline beating expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Most of this increase was concentrated in expectations, with a 59% surge in the year-ahead outlook for the economy following two months at its lowest reading since the Great Recession

Source: Bloomberg

The gains in sentiment were seen across age, education, income, region, and political affiliation, and can be attributed to the recent deceleration in inflation.

Lower-income consumers, who have fewer resources to buffer against inflation, posted particularly large gains on all index components. Their sentiment now even exceeds that of higher-income consumers, when it typically lags higher-income sentiment by over 15 points.

Finally, while the market will focus on the drop in inflation expectations, here is what UMICH says about the drop: “Uncertainty over expectations rose considerably, particularly among lower-educated consumers.”

iii)USA economic commentaries

Good indicator of problems in the housing sector as Blackstone halts home purchases in 38 cities

(zerohedge)

The Other Shoe Drops: Blackstone Landlord Halts Home Purchases In 38 Cities As Market Crashes

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 08:00 PM

One month after we reported that home prices finally dropped for the first time in year, an observation echoed yesterday by Black Knight which also found that home prices had fallen for the first time in 3 years last month – in the biggest decline since 2011 – we knew the other shoe in the ongoing housing crash was set to drop any minute.

We didn’t have long to wait, because just after the close today, all those who had defended housing as backstopped by Wall Street’s biggest firms and thus unlikely to crash, were suddenly silenced when Bloomberg reported that Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone, the largest residential and commercial landlord in the US, will stop buying homes in 38 US cities, becoming the latest institutional investor to back away from an overheated housing market.

The company, which was acquired by Blackstone in June 2021 for $6 billion, told customers that as of Sept. 1, it is pausing applications and property submissions in Boise, Idaho; Fresno, California; Memphis, Tennessee, and 25 other areas. The company will go on hiatus in 10 additional cities on Oct. 1 (incidentally, Boise, ID is the city which saw explosive price increases during the covid pandemic, and has since then seen an unprecedented plunge with Redfin reporting that a record 70% of home sellers had dropped their asking price in July).

“We assessed several factors such as home price appreciation, state and local regulations and market demand to guide our investment plans to best serve consumers,” Home Partners of America said in an announcement on its website. “We hope to resume purchasing homes in these markets in the future.”

According to Bloomberg, Home Partners of America, which operates in more than 80 markets, stands out from other large single-family landlords because it’s designed to give tenants a pathway to homeownership. Customers apply for the program and, if approved, can submit homes they would like to eventually buy. Home Partners purchases the property in cash, then rents it to the customer, who gets the right to purchase the home at a predetermined price.

Under the new policy, customers who have been approved but don’t submit a home by the cutoff date will be withdrawn from the program and have their application fee refunded, according to the announcement.

Home Partners isn’t the first Wall Street institutional investor to back away from the US housing market, which reached a frenzied bubble during the first half of the year, a bubble which has since popped with both new and existing home sales collapsing at near record rates. As we reported last month, Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, and KKR’s My Community Homes are among landlords that have slowed purchases during a period of high home prices and rising financing costs.

Mynd Management, a real estate platform that helps investors find, buy, lease, manage, and sell residential investment properties, advised institutional clients to dial back acquisitions and wait for housing prices to readjust to the interest rate shock. In an interview, Mynd’s CEO Doug Brien told Bloomberg that market conditions could improve in the fall as “buying opportunities” emerge. He said, for the time being, “let’s tap the brakes and watch the markets.”

Only instead of tapping the breaks, they were slammed full force…

END

Major USA retailers are now warning that lower income consumers are in trouble because of costs

(zerohedge)

Major US Retailers Warn: Lower-Income Consumers Are In Trouble

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 10:40 PM

President Biden and his top advisers have been adamant that the consumer is exceptionally strong this summer despite the economy slumping into a technical recession. Well, maybe in aggregate, the consumer appears healthy, but numerous retailers pointed out that less-affluent ones are tapped out. 

Earlier this summer, we saw the first signs of consumer cracking as people maxed out their credit cards and depleted savings amid 16 months of tumbling real wages due to the highest inflation in forty years. 

Companies from McDonald’s Corp. to Costco Wholesale Corporation to Burlington Stores, Inc. to Nordstrom, Inc. to Macy’s to Advance Auto Parts, Inc. to AT&T Inc. to even Dollar Tree, Inc. have all echoed a very alarming message that low-tier consumers are scaling back purchases as inflation bites. 

In July, McDonald’s offered a grim warning about the consumer’s state: Customers traded down for less expensive menu items. Lower-tier customers ditched combo meals for value offerings. 

Also, in July, Costco CEO Craig Jelinek said, overall, “the consumer isn’t doing bad,” but also mentioned, “a lot of people, right now, they’re in a recession because they’re just trying to survive by just buying gas and making house and rent payments.” 

Sounds confusing, right? But it’s not. With some clarification, Jelinek said wealthier households still have “discretionary income to buy goods,” which means the lower tier consumers are perhaps tapped out. 

Clothing retailer Burlington Stores this week offered even more insight into the state of the consumer. Michael O’Sullivan, the CEO, stated:

“We believe that the external factors – economic pressure on lower-to-moderate income shoppers, and very high levels of promotional activity – will continue well into the second half of the year. Accordingly, we are taking down our full-year sales and earnings outlook.”

Another retailer Nordstrom outlined the impacts on inflation between affluent and less-affluent consumers, which was also echoed by Macy’s. 

Then car-repair retailer Advanced Auto Parts said that soaring fuel prices and elevated inflation led to declines in do-it-yourself demand.

Retailers are having a tough time as low-tier consumers appear exhausted. Even Dollar Tree slashed its full-year profit outlook, citing a higher cost of living and inventory woes due to economic pressure on low-tier consumers. 

Remember that Walmart had already cut its profit outlook as consumers purchased less-profitable groceries.

Also from the summer was AT&T when CEO John Stankey said customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills. 

And then there’s the figure of at least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their power bills. 

Retailers warning about the souring state of less-affluent consumers is troubling, despite Biden and his senior aides reaffirming every week that everything is wonderful ahead of the midterm elections in November. 

END

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

Iowa Crop Tour Reveals “Underwhelming” And “Disappointing” Cornfields Ahead Of Harvest

FRIDAY, AUG 26, 2022 – 03:05 PM

Crop scouts have wrapped up their four-day Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour across the western crop belt. Earlier this week, scouts revealed that menacing heatwaves and drought this summer had damaged corn and soybean crops. One of the last legs of the survey was farmland in Iowa on Thursday. What the scouts found was nothing short of “underwhelming,” “disappointing,” and just “not great,” according to Bloomberg

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Iowa is the top producing state for corn output in the US, the world’s leading exporter. That’s why the state of corn in Hawkeye State is critical to understand during the tour. 

What scouts uncovered yesterday as they inspected farmland were large swaths of cornfields damaged by heat and dryness. Some said many of the fields they visited were in worse shape than last summer. 

“Iowa was disappointing on my route, especially on corn,” said Mark Bernard, a crop consultant for Agro-Economics. He was one of the scouts that inspected the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. 

Pro Farmer Iowa’s results show that 2022 harvests are expected to be below 2021 levels and barely above a three-year average. 

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Other crop scouts pointed out corn was stressed. 

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Reuters’ ag specialist Karen Braun examined fields and found corn harvests will likely be below last year’s harvest levels. 

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Here’s another crop scout:

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Corn futures in Chicago have risen all week as the scouts made their way across the western crop belt. We noted earlier this week that scouts in Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, and South Dakota were “shocked it’s as bad as it is” because heat and lack of rainfall damaged corn ahead of fall harvests. 

The news from Iowa and other top producing states of drought-stricken cornfields is discouraging as the world banks on the North American growing season to produce a bumper harvest this year as food disruptions and inflation remain troublesome. 

end

SWAMP STORIES

A big story:  Zuckerberg outlines in a Rogan interview, election interference by the FBI in the censored Hunter Biden laptop story

(zerohedge)

Election Interference: Zuck Tells Rogan Facebook Censored Hunter Laptop Story After FBI Request

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 06:33 PM

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed on Thursday that the FBI warned Facebook about “Russian propaganda” shortly before the Hunter Biden laptop story broke at the NY Post.

“Basically, the background here is the FBI, I think, basically came to us- some folks on our team and was like, ‘Hey, just so you know, like, you should be on high alert…  We thought that there was a lot of Russian propaganda in the 2016 election. We have it on notice that, basically, there’s about to be some kind of dump of that’s similar to that. So just be vigilant,” Zuckerberg told Rogan.

As a reminderHunter Biden abandoned his laptop at a Wilmington, Delaware repair shop on April 12, 2019. The owner, John Paul Mac Isaac, walked into the Albuquerque FBI office, where he explained what he had, but was rebuffed by the FBI. He was told basically, get lost. This was mid-September 2019.

Two months passed and then, out of the blue, the FBI contacted John Paul Mac Issac. Two FBI agents from the Wilmington FBI office–Joshua Williams and Mike Dzielak–came to John Paul’s business. He offered immediately to give them the hard drive, no strings attached. Agents Williams and Dzielak declined to take the device.

Eight months later, Isaac provided a copy to then-President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who provided a copy of the hard drive to The Post.

Back to Rogan – Zuckerberg expressed regret about suppressing a story that turned out to be the truth.

“Yeah, yeah. I mean, it sucks,” he said, before defending the platform for letting others share the NY Post story, unlike Twitter.

“It’s probably also the case of armchair quarterbacking, right?” replied Rogan, adding “Or at least Monday morning quarterbacking… because in the moment, you had reason to believe based on the FBI talking to you that it wasn’t real and that there was going to be some propaganda. So what do you do?” Rogan said. “And then, if you just let it get out there and what if it changes the election and it turns out to be bulls—, that’s a real problem. And I would imagine that those kinds of decisions are the most difficult.” (h/t Fox News).

In a letter from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) to Inspector General Michael Horowitz this week, Johnson revealed that an FBI whistleblower claims that agency leadership gave orders not to investigate the laptop.

“Allegations provided to my office appear to indicate that there was a scheme in place among certain FBI officials to undermine derogatory information connected to Hunter Biden by falsely suggesting it was disinformation,” wrote Sen. Grassley in a separate letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray.

Talk about running cover…

END

Lawsuit filed seeking the removal of the Judge (Reinhart) who approved the warrant for FBI  raid on Trump

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Lawsuit Seeks Removal Of Judge Who Approved Warrant For FBI Trump Raid

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tea Party Patriots Action filed a federal complaint against the judge who approved the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

Judge [Bruce] Reinhart has a conflict of interest and a pattern and history of hostility to President Trump,” said the filing (pdf).

The lawsuit then listed several examples including purported Facebook posts that show Reinhart had criticized Trump while praising the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.). Reinhart also reportedly donated to former President Barack Obama and to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush when he was running against Trump in 2015, the lawsuit said, citing publicly available reports.

The lawsuit seeks to have Reinhart, a U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida judge, removed from the case or even removed from his position.

Judge Reinhart should be disciplined and removed as a federal magistrate because of his failure to meet the standards of ethical conduct and character necessary for the public to have confidence in the nonpartisan role of a judge in a matter of this extreme public interest,” the suit contended.

“Clearly,” it further said, “Judge Reinhart is a partisan and has publicly expressed his partisan views against former President Trump” and that his “antipathy for the former President is such that he should have recused when presented with the search warrant for the highly problematic search of President Trump’s home in Florida.”

Days after signing off on the FBI search warrant, Reinhart ultimately released the warrant and property receipt to the public.

During a hearing last week and on Monday, Reinhart suggested that he would release the affidavit the Department of Justice used to seek the warrant after the agency submits the document with redactions. He gave the Justice Department, which has sought to block the release of the affidavit, until Thursday at 12 p.m. to submit the redacted version.

The Tea Party lawsuit also cited a case involving Hillary Clinton in which Reinhart had recused himself, arguing that he should have done so with the FBI search warrant.

Read more here…

END

A good read

(Alan Dershowitz)

“Get Trump!” Damn The Constitution

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Alan Dershowitz via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Many of my friends on the left fear [Trumpism] as much as many on the right feared Communism in the 1950s. And they may have a point. But not enough of a point to destroy a century of progress in civil liberties, free speech, due process, and the rule of law.
  • Articles are now frequently appearing in the mainstream media demanding compromises with important rights in the name of “Getting Trump.”
  • My former colleague Laurence Tribe, who taught constitutional law for half a century now seems willing to weaponize the Constitution to serve his partisan end of “Getting Trump.” Incredibly, he has advocated prosecuting Trump for the “attempted murder” of former Vice President Pence. To do so would require retroactively and unconstitutionally expanding the law of attempts to fit Trump’s ill-advised actions and inactions with regard to Pence. But apparently that doesn’t matter to Tribe and his followers who care more about achieving their “noble” ends than they do about the ignoble means they are willing to employ.
  • The ACLU, which has long objected to the overuse of search warrants instead of subpoenas, is silent about the search of Mar-a-Lago. As long as the goal is to get Trump, anything goes including hypocrisy, inconstancy and unconstitutionality.
  • I would give everyone “the benefit of law,” but not only “for my own safety’s sake,” but for the sake of future generations. Once the Constitution and civil liberties are “cut down” it is difficult to regrow them and the “winds that would blow them” might prevent us from “standing upright” against new tyrannies from the extreme left and right.
  • This important right [to vote ] should not be taken away by unconstitutional means, even if the result were to be the unlikely re-election of Trump. That is the price of democracy.

There is a movement afoot to “Get Trump,” at any cost.

The goal is to prevent him from running in 2024. Many in this movement are willing to use any means to attain what they believe to be a necessary and admirable goal.

“Democracy is at stake,” they claim. They are prepared to sacrifice constitutional rights, civil liberties, principles and the rule of law to stop Trump.

This is a familiar argument to me. I fought against it in the 1950s, when decent people who believed that Communism was a grave danger to democracy were willing to trample on the Constitutional rights of alleged communists and fellow travelers in order to prevent them from destroying our democracy.

Although back then the fear was more exaggerated than it may be now, there was genuine concern about the increasing influence of communism throughout the world. The Soviet Union controlled all of Eastern Europe and was making inroads in central Europe and Latin America. Communists controlled China. Khrushchev boasted “We will bury you.” There was concern, albeit exaggerated, about the influence of Communism in the American media, academia, and government bureaucracies. McCarthyism was intended to rout out these Communists and to prevent the spread of their anti-Democratic agenda. McCarthyites, and even some moderates, were prepared to trash the Constitution in order to achieve what they regarded as a noble pro-democracy goal.

Today the fear is Trumpism. Many of my friends on the left fear it as much as many on the right feared Communism in the 1950s. And they may have a point. But not enough of a point to destroy a century of progress in civil liberties, free speech, due process, and the rule of law. Articles are now frequently appearing in the mainstream media demanding compromises with important rights in the name of “Getting Trump.” Sam Harris essentially said he was willing to break democracy to save democracy. His dangerous words speak for the actions of many on the hard left. My former colleague Laurence Tribe, who taught constitutional law for half a century now seems willing to weaponize the Constitution to serve his partisan end of “Getting Trump.” Incredibly, he has advocated prosecuting Trump for the “attempted murder” of former Vice President Pence. To do so would require retroactively and unconstitutionally expanding the law of attempts to fit Trump’s ill-advised actions and inactions with regard to Pence. But apparently that doesn’t matter to Tribe and his followers who care more about achieving their “noble” ends than they do about the ignoble means they are willing to employ.

Leftists who railed against the breadth of the Espionage Act of 1917 now want to expand it to cover Trumps alleged misconduct. The ACLU, which has long objected to the overuse of search warrants instead of subpoenas, is silent about the search of Mar-a-Lago. As long as the goal is to get Trump, anything goes including hypocrisy, inconstancy and unconstitutionality.

A scene from the film “A Man for All Seasons” well illustrates the current debate:

William Roper: “So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!”

Sir Thomas More: “Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil?”

William Roper: “Yes, I’d cut down every law in England to do that!”

Sir Thomas More: “Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned ’round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man’s laws, not God’s! And if you cut them down, and you’re just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I’d give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety’s sake!”

Today on the left, there are more Ropers than Mores. Today’s devil is Trump, and today’s Ropers are willing to “cut a great road through the law to get after [today’s] devil.” Like More, I would give everyone “the benefit of law,” but not only “for my own safety’s sake,” but for the sake of future generations. Once the Constitution and civil liberties are “cut down” it is difficult to regrow them and the “winds that would blow them” might prevent us from “standing upright” against new tyrannies from the extreme left and right.

There is a legitimate way to stop Trump from being elected in 2024, just as he was not elected in 2020: a fair election defeated him once, and it can do so again – without cutting down the Constitution and weakening the rule of law. But it will take hard work, not unconstitutional shortcuts.

I voted against Trump twice. If he is renominated, I plan to vote against him a third time. That is my right in a democracy, just as it is the right of Trump supporters to vote for him. This important right should not be taken away by unconstitutional means, even if the result were to be the unlikely re-election of Trump. That is the price of democracy.

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 26, 2022 Issue 6831Independent View of the News
 China Adds 1 Trillion Yuan ($146B) More of Stimulus to Rescue Growth
China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending… https://www.yahoo.com/now/china-adds-1-trillion-yuan-011558214.html
 
BOJ’s Nakamura stresses need to maintain ultra-loose policy
Board member Toyoaki Nakamura also ruled out the chance of tweaking Japan’s ultra-low interest rates to stem the yen’s falls against the dollar, saying there was not much the BOJ can do to reverse a trend largely driven by U.S. rate hikes…  “It’s not right for Japan to join the global rate hike competition now,” Nakamura said, stressing the BOJ’s resolve to keep supporting the economy… https://t.co/QKKEn4r91P
 
@MNIMarketNews: Philadelphia Fed President Pat Harker (’23 voter) is most recent with a broadly similar view to the market, told MNI he wants rates above 3.4% by year-end – coincidentally the June SEP’s median end’22 dot – and to sit at restrictive ‘for a while’ before rate cuts.  Harker: Still a long way to get inflation under control… https://twitter.com/MNIMarketNews/status/1562812487262617601
 
Harker said he has NOT yet decided on 50bps vs. 75bps for the Fed rate hike in September.
 
KC Fed Pres Ester George, the hostess for Jackson Hole, asserted that it is unclear how much the Fed should hike rates in September; and it is not out of the question that the Fed would hold rates above 4%. 
 
China shipments are way down, but U.S. ports are still strugglingAn increase in container vessels anchored off of Savannah and Houston is one sign of a global shipping industry that has moved more cargo away from the U.S. West Coast.A big beneficiary is East and Gulf coast warehousing, where higher container delivery volume is pushing up prices.Ocean carriers are canceling sailings as result of U.S. port congestion, and even as container volume from China is way down, U.S. ports continue to have productivity issues.More complications for East Coast ports are anticipated as a result of the strike at Felixstowe, which may hit U.S. imports once the backlog starts to get sorted out…   https://t.co/M2MNjcCUX6
 
@OilandEnergy: Europe’s multi-billion government packages to support consumers amid soaring energy prices could only intensify inflationary pressures and burn through government finances as efforts to lower energy bills could make the energy crisis even worse.  https://t.co/UlzLwm84EB
 
US Economic Data Released on ThursdayUS Q2 GDP -0.6% from -0.9%; -0.7% expected; GDP Price Index +0.2 to 8.9%, 8.7% consensus; Core PCE 4.4% as expected; Consumption unchanged at 1.5%KC Fed Mfg Index for August is 3, down from 13 in July.  10 was expected.Initial Jobless Claims 243k, previous 245k, 252k consensus 
Tesla’s split was effective on Thursday.  TSLA traded at its NYSE high of 302.96 at 9:31 ET.  It then sank to 291.60 at 11:17 ET.  Tesla hit 307.95 at 4 ET.  TSLA short interest is only 2.9% of float now! 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/short-interest/
 
ESUs traded modestly higher during early Asian trading.  After dipping to unchanged at 20:02 ET, ESUs commenced a rally that ended with the Nikkei close at 1 ET.  After a modest retreat during the final hour of Chinese trading, ESUs went vertical at 2:13 ET due to the Y1T increase in China’s stimulus scheme.
 
ESUs then traded sideways until they commenced a decline at 5:12 ET.  The drop ended, of course, 4 minutes after the NYSE open.  ESUs then soared 38 handles by 10:48 ET. Alas, sellers appeared; ESUs sank 28 handles by 11:23 ET.  The standard rally for the European close appeared; it was modest.
 
No Noon Balloon for you!  ESUs and stocks rolled over when the noon hour arrived.  When the afternoon arrived, ESUs rallied for 50 minutes.  They then traded sideways until someone juiced ESUs 35 handles, hitting the daily high at the close.  Does someone know something about Powell’s speech?
 
USUs traded between small gains and losses during Asian trading.  They jumped higher when Europe opened.  USUs then traded sideways until they sank when the US bond market opened at 8 ET.  After hitting a low of 136 at 8:42 ET, USUs rallied sharply, hitting 137 9/32 at 11:51 ET.  Were seasoned traders getting long for the expected rally that we mentioned tends to occur when the first two tranches of a Treasury Auction are disappointing?
 
The 7-year Treasury Auction (We erroneously said 10-yr in Thursday’s missive) went smashingly: $37B at 3.130% vs. 3.158% WI.  The early USU rally portended the good auction.
 
St. Louis Fed President Bullard (an FOMC voter) remarks that began about 14:25 ET
Inflation likely to be more persistent than expected
Favors front loading rate hikes; Sees rates at 3.75% to 4% by yearend
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks, bonds, & precious metals rallied sharply.  Does someone know something about Powell’s speech?
Chinese Fangs led the rally.  The NY Fang+ Index soared 3.06%: Baidu +8.73%, Alibaba +7.97%
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The Street is set up for a major disappointment if Powell is hawkish.
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is recession here?  If not, is it on the way?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4182.42
Previous session High/Low4200.54; 4147.59
 
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook suppressed the distribution of the Hunter Biden laptop story in 2020 after a visit from the FBI.  Zuckerberg told Joe Rogan that the FBI had been warning Facebook to beware of incoming “Russian propaganda” before the New York Post released the report on Hunter… https://www.outkick.com/zuckerberg-rogan-fbi-hunter-biden-laptop/
 
Zuckerberg’s confession comes only a few days after FBI whistleblowers told GOP Senators that FBI supervisors told agents to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story.  What else and who else has the FBI requested to be censored?   How pervasive is USA fascism?  Is Zuckerberg preparing a defense for likely GOP inquiries into social media censorship & the FBI?  Zuck should increase his security.
@greg_price11: The 2020 election was riggedBig Tech & the Deep State worked together to rig the election for Biden and they’re gonna do it again unless the GOP does something to stop it.
 
@RichardGrenell: Who from the FBI? Republican Senators need to haul (Zuck) in and ask for specifics.
 
8 in 10 Think Biden Laptop Cover-Up Changed Election
https://tippinsights.com/shock-poll-8-in-10-think-biden-laptop-cover-up-changed-election/
 
The Fed Balance Sheet increased $1.674B for the week ended on Wednesday.
 
Today – The known world anxiously awaits Powell’s 10 ET speech at Jackson Hole, WY.  The market anticipates a slightly hawkish tone due to Jerome’s enormous ‘neutral rate’ gaffe in July. 
 
If Powell is only slightly hawkish, there could be a relief rally.  It is one of the last summer Fridays; guppies and conditioned traders want to play for a rally.  Traders on Thursday afternoon ignored the three Fed presidents that issued hawkish remarks during NYSE trading.  Did someone trade on nonpublic information about Powell’s speech?  We will soon find out.
 
China, and Japan to a lesser degree, are creating a huge problem for Powell and the Fed.  China is trying to rejuvenate its economy via wanton fiscal policy.  When the US did this after the Covid Shutdown, historic inflation appeared.  Massive fiscal stimulus can be helicopter money; it gets into the real economy quickly.  Monetary policy flows to big banks and Street; the masses get crumps. 
 
On Thursday, Chinese Fangs led US Fangs higher, which in turn boosted the general stock market.  If China reflates commodities and stocks, Powell and the Fed will have a difficult time arresting inflation.
 
ESUs are -7.50 and USUs are -10/32 at 20:20 ET.
 
Expected economic data: July Advance Goods Trade Balance -$98.5B; July Wholesale Inventories 1.3% m/m, Retail Inventories 1.3% m/m; July Personal Spending 0.5%, Income 0.6%, PCE Deflator 0% m/m, 6.4% y/y, PCE Core Deflator 0.2% m/m, 4.7% y/y; Aug UM Sentiment 55.3
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3991; 100-day MA: 4079; 150-day MA: 4190; 200-day MA: 4310
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,002; 100-day MA: 32,541; 150-day MA: 33,140; 200-day MA: 33,795
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4257.90 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4141.93 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden Student Loan Amnesty a Windfall for DC Staffers
There is more outstanding student debt in Washington than in any other city in the countryThe average debtor in D.C., according to a 2021 breakdown by… AdvisorSmith, owes $54,982 in unpaid student loans. This includes many political staffers at the Department of Education, senior advisors as well as junior aides who moved to that agency from the Biden campaign
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/08/25/_biden_student_loan_amnesty_a_windfall_for_dc_staffers_148099.html
 
Biden student loan handout to cost roughly $500B, according to Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget  https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-student-loan-handout-cost-roughly-500b-committee-responsible-federal-budget
 
Washington Post columns condemn Biden’s student loan handout as ‘ill-conceived’ and ‘extremely regressive’ – The Post editorial board and columnist Megan McArdle claimed the plan will hurt lower income American… “It takes money from the broader tax base, mostly made up of workers who did not go to college, to subsidize the education debt of people with valuable degrees.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/washington-post-columns-condemn-bidens-student-loan-handout-ill-conceived-extremely-regressive
 
WSJ Editorial Board: Biden’s Half-Trillion-Dollar Student-Loan Forgiveness Coup
His student-loan write-off is an abuse of power that favors college grads at the expense of plumbers and FedEx drivers… Worse than the cost is the moral hazard and awful precedent this sets… It’s important to appreciate that there has never been an executive action of this costly magnitude in peacetime..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-half-trillion-dollar-student-loan-executive-coup-joe-biden-debt-forgiveness-white-house-11661378933
 
Poli Sci prof @EddieZipperer: Like 16% of people in Ohio have student loan debt. 15% in GA. 12% in Arizona. 14% in Colorado. In swing state Senate races, this debt transfer from a small number of people to all taxpayers is likely to be a huge loser of an issue.   Is Biden trying to lose the Senate? If I were Warnock, Ryan, Bennet, or Kelly, I would not want to have to shoulder the weight of Biden’s student loan transfer in my Senate race.
 
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich to WH Press Sec: “The HEROES Act hinges on student debt cancellation being tied to the pandemic, and that being a national emergency. But the administration argued in court that the pandemic is over at the southern border to lift Title 42…How is this a national emergency?”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1562862278650736640
 
Two people plead guilty in theft of diary of Ashley Biden, daughter of president
The duo shopped the diary to the campaign of then-President Donald Trump, which told them to take it to the FBI, court records show…occurred weeks before the 2020 election… https://t.co/Jlzk6zssIs
 
Confirmed: Ashley Biden’s Diary is Real — Two Defendants Just Plead Guilty to Federal Charges for Trying to Sell It   https://beckernews.com/confirmed-ashley-bidens-diary-is-real-two-defendants-just-plead-guilty-to-federal-charges-for-trying-to-sell-it-46559/?s=02
 
Zero Hedge: Are we allowed to talk about the ‘probably inappropriate showers’ now?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/two-plead-guilty-stealing-ashley-bidens-inappropriate-showers-dad-diary
 
The regime media spiked the Ashley Biden story due to the sordid allegations about The Big Guy’s disturbingly creepy behavior toward his daughter.  Undoubtedly the DoJ eagerly arranged a plea deal to prevent the creepy details from the dairy being entered into a court record and the public domain.
 
@johncardillo: If Ivanka Trump’s diary was found and it had damning info on DJT it would be public knowledge with DOJ defending the constitutionality of the disclosure… (The MSM would be gaga!)
 
Joe Biden Rejects Urgent Phone Call from Israeli PM over Iran: ‘On Vacation
According to Israel’s Channel 13, Lapid sought to speak with Biden in an attempt to prevent a return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear pact but U.S. officials denied the request, informing Lapid Biden “is on vacation.”… (Is Joe getting his special R&R treatments or continuing Team Obama’s anti-Israel bent?)
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/08/25/biden-rejects-phone-call-from-lapid-over-iran-says-hes-on-vacation-really-3am/
 
Jeffrey Epstein associate Steven Hoffenberg is found dead in his apartment aged 77 – There were no visible signs of injury to his body but a cause of death remains unconfirmed…  https://t.co/F6vzG087BL
 

 

Greg Hunter interviewing 

end

See you MONDAY

Harvey

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