AUGUST 25//GOLD CLOSED UP $9.70 TO $1758.20//SILVER IS UP 21 CENTS TO $19.24//PLATINUM IS UP $9.19 TO $886.49//PALLADIUM IS UP $114.40 TO $2149.80//IMPORTANT READS: AMBROSE PRITCHARD-EVANS AND CONRAD BLACK//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER///CHINA RATIONS ENERGY AS BOTH TESLA AND NIO CHARGING STATIONS GO DARK//CHINA’S ECONOMY FALTERS CONSIDERABLY AS THE CPP INITIATES MORE STIMULI//UK: 1/2 HOUSEHOLDS IN FUEL POVERTY//FRANCE ALSO SOUNDS THE ALARM BELL//RUSSIA DUMA TO INITIATE REFERUNDUMS FOR CAPTURED TERRITORIES/BIG STORY; UKRAINE POWER PLANT SHUT DOWN DUE TO SHELLING AND THAT CAUSES MOST OF UKRAINE TO GO DARK//INITIAL CLAIMS USA CONTINUES ITS NORTHERLY PROJECTION//2ND QUARTER 2ND ESTIMATE STILL NEGATIVE AT -.6%/SWAMP STORY FOR YOU TONIGHT//

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GOLD;  $1758.20 UP $9.70

SILVER: $19.24 up 21 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1758.20

SILVER: $19.25

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,710 UP 169

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,627 up 86

Platinum price closing up $9.19 AT $886.49

Palladium price; closing UP $114.60  at $2135.20

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,747.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/24/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 1
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 263
661 C JP MORGAN 315
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
690 C ABN AMRO 42
905 C ADM 15


TOTAL: 320 320
MONTH TO DATE: 33,593

JPMorgan stopped:   315/320

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

320 NOTICES FOR 32,000 OZ //0.9953 TONNES

total notices so far: 33,593 contracts for 3,359,300 oz (104.488 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  3 NOTICES FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  1024 :  for 5,120,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $9.70 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.21

AT THE SLV// ://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 472.900 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 3659  CONTRACTS TO 140,688.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GIGANTIC LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL  $0.12 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.12) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 3030 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,   WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF SPECULATOR SHORTS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) MASSIVE  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 120,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//MASSIVE SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -329

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 19 days, total 10,488  contracts:  52.440 million oz  OR 2.760 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (552 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 52.440  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 52.440 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3659  DESPITE OUR SMALL  $0.12 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 300 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 120,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 3359 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 16.795 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 3  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  15,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 1854 CONTRACTS  TO 459,616 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–329   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $0.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP OF 4200 OZ //NEW STANDING 105.247 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF   $0.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2204  OI CONTRACTS 6.855 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 350  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 459,616

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2204 CONTRACTS  WITH 1854 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 350 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2204 CONTRACTS OR 6.855 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (350) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1854): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2204 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4200 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

49,679 CONTRACTS OR 4,967,900 OZ OR 154.523  TONNES 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2615 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 154.523 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  154.523/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 154.523 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3659 CONTRACT OI TO 140,698 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 300  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 300 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3659  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 3359   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16.795 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL DECLINE IN PRICE OF  $0.12

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.05 PTS OR 0.97%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 699.64 OR 3.63%    /The Nikkei closed UP 165.54 OR % 0.58.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.8523//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.8576//    /Oil UP TO 95.20  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 101.80//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 1854 CONTRACTS TO 459,616 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE OF $0.50  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (350 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 350 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :350 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  350 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 2204  CONTRACTS IN THAT 350 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1854  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 0.50.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (105.247),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:105.247 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.50) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 6.855 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (105.247 TONNES)

WE HAD -329  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3073 CONTRACTS OR 307,300  OZ OR 9.558 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 114,713///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  120,501/extremely poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 25

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz233,736.253  oz


Brinks
HSBC





Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today320   notice(s)
32000  OZ
0.9953 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)244 contracts 
24400 oz
0.7589 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month33,593 notices
3,359,300 OZ
104.488 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 189,530.145 oz (5895 kilobars)

ii) Out of HSBC: 44,206.108 oz

total:  233,736.253  oz

total in tonnes: 7.27 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 564 contracts having GAINED 26 contracts .

We had 16 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 42 contracts or an additional 4200 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August

Sept. lost 32 contracts to 3021 contracts.

October gained 144 contracts up to 40,539 

We had 320 notice(s) filed today for 32,000 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 320 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 315 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,593) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 564 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 320 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,383,700 OZ  OR 105.247 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (33,593) x 100 oz+   (564)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (320} x 100 oz} which equals 3,383,700 oz standing OR 105.247 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  105.247 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,344,669.896 oz   72.92 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,452,018.381 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,832,132.027  OZ (430.23 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,619,886.352 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,487,463. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 368.05 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 25

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,124,437.210 oz
CNT
JPMorgan
Brinks

 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz


 
No of oz served today (contracts)3CONTRACT(S)
15,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)74 contracts 
(370,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1027 contracts
 5,135,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  0  deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 170.985 million oz/330.828 million =51.69% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:32

i) Out of CNT:  1,891.740 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  585,547.470 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 536,998.000 oz

total: 1,124,437.210    oz

 adjustments:  0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 52.015 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 330.828 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 77 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 21 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 45 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY

SO WE GAINED 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 8614 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 32,169

OCTOBER GAINED 49 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 343

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for  15,000 oz

Comex volumes:70,597// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,885 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1027 x 5,000 oz = 5,135,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(77) and the number of notices served upon today 3  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 1027 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (77)  – number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 5,505,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 984.38 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 472.900 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Into The Black Hole – Six Months Of War With No End In Sight

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by James Rickards cia DailyReckoning.com,

The war in Ukraine has been dragging on for six months with no end in sight.

Russia is slowly and systematically advancing, while the Ukrainian military is being ground down in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

On balance, Russia is winning the war, although progress is slow.

Russia will next likely move to take Odesa, a strategically key Black Sea port. Russia has staged missile attacks on Odesa in recent days. If Russia ultimately takes Odesa, it removes Ukraine’s access to the sea, effectively rendering it completely landlocked.

But there don’t appear to be any plans for an imminent Russian attack on Odesa. At any rate, a negotiated peace settlement is nowhere in sight. Neither side will accept the other’s demands.

Meanwhile, a car bomb killed the daughter of “Putin’s brain” this past weekend near Moscow. Alexander Dugin is an ardent Russian nationalist whose thinking is said to have influenced Putin. His daughter was killed in the blast, although many suspect he was the intended target.

Russia blames Ukraine for the attack, which Ukraine denies. How Russia responds remains to be seen.

What’s the Endgame?

As the war drags on with no end in sight, there’s also no end in sight to the flow of U.S. aid to Ukraine. It’s an open-ended commitment with no clearly defined objective.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties support the spending, except for a minority who are vilified as Putin stooges and apologists.

Supporters talk about standing up for democracy, but Ukraine is a corrupt oligarchy that’s just about as corrupt as Russia. It’s far from a model democracy.

But the aid’s for a good cause, they say. We’re helping defeat aggression and assisting a weaker nation stand up against a much stronger attacker.

Well, that’s fine, but there’s little to no oversight to supervise the transfers. Where’s the U.S. aid to Ukraine going?

The aid is being stolen off the top or diverted to corrupt officials. Goods are often stolen and resold on the black market. Weapons are also sold on the black market. In all, very limited amounts of aid are actually going to the war effort.

Massive Corruption

One Ukrainian volunteer fighting in the Donbas has said:

In Ukraine, people cheat each other even in war. I’ve watched the medical supplies donated to us being taken away. The cars that drove us to our position were stolen. And we have not been replaced with new soldiers in three months, though we should have been relieved three times by now…

If I had known how much deception there was in this army, and how everything would be for us, I never would have joined. I want to go home, but if I flee, I face prison.

Here’s what a Ukrainian journalist has to say:

The corruption related to the war aid is shocking. The weapons are stolen, the humanitarian aid is stolen and we have no idea where the billions sent to this country have gone.

Of course, your tax money is paying for this swindle.

Wartime Sacrifice?

Here’s an idea of where at least some of the billions have gone. Last month, the Ukrainian parliament voted to give itself a 70% pay raise, while the army is collapsing and the Ukrainian people are suffering.

So much for wartime sacrifice. Moreover, Western admirers of Ukrainian president Zelenskyy have praised him as a modern Winston Churchill, defyingly resisting an evil aggressor.

But Zelenskyy is no Churchill.

He’s succeeded in presenting himself as a strong wartime leader, standing up to the big, bad Putin. But in reality, he’s a corrupt oligarch with millions of dollars hidden offshore. His acting skills have enhanced his propaganda efforts, but it doesn’t take much training to see how phony he is.

Innocent civilians, including women and children, are dying under his failed leadership and inability to come to terms with Putin before the invasion began.

The True U.S. Objective in Ukraine

But the same journalist who complained about the widespread corruption has figured out the real U.S. strategy in Ukraine:

It is obvious that the U.S. doesn’t want Ukraine to win the war. They only want to make Russia weak. No one will win this war, but the countries the U.S. is using like a playground will lose.

That’s exactly right. The U.S. has no vital interest in Ukraine worth going to war over. Its real aim is to weaken Russia through a protracted war in Ukraine. The longer it drags on, the better, no matter how many Ukrainians have to die in the process.

In other words, the U.S. is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

That may sound overly cynical, but it really isn’t. It’s just an objective assessment based upon the facts on the ground. But don’t take my word for it.

As Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said, “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

Sanctions Are a Complete Failure

Meanwhile, the sanctions regime against Russia has proven to be a complete failure. Sanctions have had zero impact on Russian advances on the battlefield and Russian goals in Ukraine. In fact, Putin has run rings around the sanctions.

Instead of the ruble collapsing, it has strengthened in the face of Western sanctions. And boycotting Russian exports of oil and natural gas was pointless because Russia just sold the same energy to China and India instead of Europe. It’s a world market, after all.

European countries like Germany are so dependent on Russian energy that they’re facing severe shortages and a bleak winter without it. Germany faces a catastrophic winter in which factories will have to be closed, homes will have to reduce heat to 50 F and hot showers may be a thing of the past.

It’s all because Germany made a political decision to side with the climate alarmists and Greens

despite the lack of scientific evidence supporting their claims. They became utterly dependent on Russia as a result.

When reality collides with ideology, reality wins every time. Now Germany will pay the price. Meanwhile, global food shortages and possibly famine are real possibilities this winter because Ukrainian and Russian grain won’t be delivered.

The tragedy is that all of this could have been prevented had the U.S. and NATO guaranteed Russia that Ukraine would never be invited into the alliance. That’s not a defense of Putin’s invasion, by the way, which I condemn. It’s just reality.

Now the world is living with the results.

END

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold on the rise as Fedwatch tool moves in favour of 75 bps increase

We recently commented on the volatile nature of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fedwatch Tool which analyses market sentiment on what the Fed’s most likely rate increase will be at the next FOMC meeting – still nearly a month away. This is a great day-to-day pointer to market sentiment on the state of the U.S. economy, and thus on short term market movements in all sectors that are dependent on such perceptions.

Over the past couple of days this has moved from favouring, only marginally, a 50 basis point rate increase being imposed at the September meeting to today’s 56.5:43.5 likelihood of the higher 75 basis point rise forthcoming. Of course this ratio is likely to be changed one way, or the other, by the latest U.S. GDP data, which has come out today, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index data out tomorrow and analysis of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s address to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, also tomorrow. We could thus see some sharp movements in the Fedwatch forecasts by the weekend.

But of course the actual FOMC meeting does not take place until September 20th – 21st, allowing ample time for other relevant data, both economic and geopolitical, to affect the final rate increase decisions. Not least among these will be the next U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release due out on September 13th which will give us some idea if the Fed’s relatively aggressive interest rate raising policies so far are having any effect on inflation at all – and even if overall inflation appears to be easing the conclusions may still be inconclusive given that one of the biggest inflationary elements, the oil price, has been moderating on influences entirely outside Fed involvement. A worrying factor here is that it seems to be picking up slowly again, albeit still remaining well below recent peaks. Analysis of the core inflation figure, which excludes the biggest variables of energy and food prices, may thus give a better indication of the true state of affairs

There is a theory among some well-respected analysts that the Fed will not be too displeased if the U.S. economy is indeed seen to be seen either already in recession, or heading there, and will possibly give this likelihood something of a boost by raising rates by the higher 75 basis points which will have a negative impact on corporate performance. Hence the latest movements in the Fedwatch tool. This would depress equity prices and could give the dollar index a further leg up. What this might do to precious metals prices is a little more uncertain.

In theory a stronger dollar would tend to signify a weaker gold price in dollar terms but this is not always the case as the safe haven aspects of gold also tend to come into play with such Fed moves suggesting a continuing worry about the inflationary impact on the U.S. economy. Gold is sometimes viewed as an inflation hedge so it could also benefit. Certainly its early performance today in European markets was positive, although that could also have been due to a slightly weakening dollar. As trade has progressed in the U.S. this morning the price has slipped although is still up on yesterday’s close, with U.S. jobless claims falling a little, contrary to expectations and the GDP figure confirming a small Q2 contraction.

The markets will take a little time to digest this, but will largely be waiting on Powell’s Jackson Hole address and the new PCE data figure, before it draws any new conclusions. But the FOMC meeting is still 27 days away leaving plenty of time, and relevant data release announcements, to influence sentiment in the meantime. Interesting times ahead as the summer holiday period draws to a close and market makers and influencers are all back at their desks!

25 Aug 2022

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Quite a story:  Ghana allows Chinese state mining operation Shaanzi Mining company steal and murder local residents

(Syndey Morning Herald)

Ghana lets Chinese gold mining company murder local residents, steal from adjacent mine

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-08-24 22:37Section: Daily Dispatches

Blood Gold: In Africa’s Gold Country an Australian Firm
Is Embroiled in a Bitter and Deadly $395 Million Dispute

By Eryk Bagshaw and Edward Adeti
Sydney Morning Herald
Thursday, August 25, 2022

The tunnel runs 150 metres underground. Inside, Australian mining manager Andrew Head is trudging through mud and muck. He only has a headlight to guide him as the temperature in this dark pit in western Africa hits 45 degrees.

The tunnel has gold running through its veins. Head, a rugged 48-year-old, father-of-three from Sydney’s northern suburbs is searching for gaps in the wall.

“It’s 100% humidity. There is water leaking everywhere and you’re wading all the time in human faeces,” he says. “It’s like a scene from ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark.'”

Two companies bought access to this barren patch of earth in Talensi, northern Ghana, in 2008 and 2014. Now one of them is hitting paydirt while the other is crying foul play.

Separated by 2½ kilometres of rock, rubble, and poverty above ground, the mines stand opposite each other. One is an Australian exploration mine run by Cassius Mining Ltd. The other is a Chinese state-linked mine run by the Shaanxi Mining Co.

Both came here to make their fortune by tapping into the rich veins of gold that run through this ancient terrain but competition soon turned to suspicion and hostility. Now they are involved in a bitter dispute over claims of trespass, theft, and the deaths of more than a dozen miners. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2022/blood-gold/index.html

END

A must read: Pritchard states that the Fed wants to crush stock markets to get inflation under control

(Ambrose Evans Pritchard)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Fed wants to crush stock markets, so ignore it at your peril

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-08-24 22:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Beware the wrath of the U.S. Federal Reserve at this week’s conclave of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed is determined to break Wall Street’s torrid and unwelcome rally, a bear-trap variant if ever there was one.

The presidents of the Richmond, St Louis, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Banks have scorched the ground in different ways over recent days, either warning that the Federal Open Market Committee is itching to raise rates by a further 75 basis points next month, or that the Fed will not hesitate to lurch into monetary overkill and inflict a deliberate recession if need be.

Even the ultra-dovish president of the Minneapolis Fed is breathing fire.

It would be extraordinary if Chairman Jay Powell did anything other than endorse this declaration of muscular intent at the Grand Tetons on Friday.

The Fed is openly irritated that markets have jumped the gun. It thinks investors have misunderstood the unscripted comments by Powell last month — easily misunderstood, it has to be said — as evidence of an early “pivot” in the interest rate cycle and a licence for fresh excess in tech stocks and frothy asset markets across the world. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://tinyurl.com/2p8pvz5v

There is every sign that the Fed actively wishes to crater equity prices in order to restrain demand through the wealth effect. It wishes to push up junk yield spreads and restore some Schumpeterian discipline to corporate finance. It wishes to tighten financial conditions as a mechanism for choking inflation. It is a “tug of war” between the Fed and the markets, says Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI.

The institution is willing to let the dollar index (DXY) vault to a 20-year high and tighten the tourniquet for emerging markets. It intends to accelerate the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) in September with $95bn of monthly bond sales. It intends to drain liquidity from the world’s dollarised financial system, and the rest of us can drop dead. Fight this Fed if you dare.

Bulls retort that US corporate profits have defied dire predictions. Earnings muddled through in the second quarter, although they fell by 4pc (year-on-year) sans energy, and revisions are coming in thick and fast. Factset says most S&P 500 companies that have spoken so far are issuing negative guidance for this quarter.

There is another catch. The next downturn will be different from past episodes. Companies are going to hoard labour to avoid the sort of reopening shortages we have seen since the end of the pandemic. “It’s what we always used to see in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s: consumption holds up better in the recession, but profits take the strain and collapse,” Albert Edwards from Societe Generale.

Furthermore, the equity rebound from mid-June to mid-August – 14pc for the S&P 500, 22pc for the Nasdaq, 7pc for the FTSE 100 – has been fuelled in part by what CrossBorderCapital calls the “Fed’s QT summer lull”.

This was caused by a quirk in the market for mortgage bonds held by the Fed. The effect will be overwhelmed once QT begins in earnest next month. That is when the real trouble begins. The Fed has repeatedly been caught off guard before by the potent effects of bond sales, chiefly because it disregards the quantity of money effect.

The Fed laid out its theory in a paper in June: the house model equates $2.5 trillion of QT to nothing more than two quarter point rate rises. This is contestable in monetary theory and empirically false if you live in the real world of the markets. If the Fed really thinks that $2.5 trillion of QT is little more than background noise, there is going to be blood on Wall Street and world bourses.

In essence, investors have been betting that US inflation has already peaked, that the Fed will soon roll over (whatever it says), and that the US economy remains in rude good health. This glorious combination opens the way for another leg of the bull market.

You can certainly paint such a rosy scenario. The US economy added over half a million jobs in July. If the US has one foot in recession, it is an odd sort of recession.

But be careful. The headline non-farm payrolls figure is a lagging indicator. “It is at odds with a rather impressive list of data. Could it be that payrolls are right and everything else is wrong?” said Tom Porcelli, a former New York Fed official now at RBC Capital.

Measures that catch turning points earlier are ominous. Weekly initial claims – unemployment filings – have been climbing since March. Full-time employment has dropped by 150,000 since then under the “household survey” measure. A string of industrial surveys have been dire. The New York Fed’s manufacturing index (Empire State) has collapsed to 2008 levels.

Yes, inflation is looking better behaved. The headline rate dropped from 9.1pc in June to 8.5pc in July, and was slightly negative on a month-to-month basis. This was not just because of falling oil and commodity prices. Clothing is in deflation too.

But, again, be careful. Inflation may fall too fast for comfort. The US money supply figures have swung from boom to bust. Over the last three months M1 money has contracted in absolute terms, and has been falling at a double-digit annual pace in real terms. If this does not lead to recession this winter, it will be a miracle.

The greatest danger is the behaviour of the Fed itself. The institution seems not to have learned any theoretical lesson from what has gone wrong. It clings to its old model. It persists in ridiculing money data. It is therefore in the process of repeating the mistake it made two years ago when it generated today’s inflation, but this time in the opposite deflationary direction through monetary overkill.

Never overlook the emotional element in central banking. Last year’s gathering at Jackson Hole saw much self-congratulation among the global monetary fraternity. Had they not printed their way through Covid with daring and panache? Had they not saved civilisation?

Mr Powell insisted then that there were no signs of “broad inflationary pressures” and that any jump in prices would prove “transient”. He stressed that inflation expectations remained “anchored” – as indeed they were, further evidence of the uselessness of that monetary lodestar.

A year later, the historical verdict is brutal. The 2021 forum was a humiliating fiasco: the requital for New Keynesian hubris, and the end of the superstar central banker as a Jupiterian deity.

Mr Powell and his colleagues are now on a mission to redeem themselves and prove that they can conquer inflation after all. Zeal is a dangerous thing. That is why I fear the Jackson Hole of 2022.

-END-

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

-END-

A very important read.

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: COFFEE

Could Poor Coffee Harvests Send Prices Even Higher?

WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Coffee prices have been in a tight trading pattern for much of this year and at the highest levels since the commodity boom a decade ago. Poor harvest outlooks and tighter global supplies could send prices even higher. 

Let’s first examine the world’s largest coffee exporter, Brazil — its top producing areas of Parana, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais are expected to produce poor harvests because of drought and frost. This means global supplies will tighten further, resulting in what could be even more coffee inflation for US consumers. 

“Very dry weather over Brazil’s major arabica-growing regions during the second half of August added to drier-than-normal conditions the region has seen” due to the La Nina weather phenomenon, the Hightower Report said. – Bloomberg

Meanwhile, adverse weather conditions have hurt coffee production in neighboring Colombia, another major producer. Producers in Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica also show crop stress signs. 

Across the world, in Vietnam, the second-largest coffee producer and top supplier of robusta, stockpiles will be halved by the end of September versus a year ago, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of traders.

Dwindling reserves and poor global harvest outlooks come as demand increases. The International Coffee Organization stated global demand would outpace supply for the second consecutive year. At the same time, Fitch Solutions said bean stocks in Intercontinental Exchange warehouses are at their lowest point this century. 

We noted last year that Caribou Coffee Co. stockpiled extra beans in late 2021.

Rabobank’s Carlos Mera warned in February that coffee prices might ‘soar out of control‘ due to dwindling stockpiles.

So far, Arabica coffee futures have been range bound since the beginning of the year after a 180% run-up from the early days of the pandemic.

The tight trading range between $2-2.50 per pound suggests a big move is coming — and if poor harvests continue in top producing countries with outsized global demand, this may imply prices could head higher. 

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8523

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8576

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 699.64 PTS OR  3.63%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 165.54 OR 0.58%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  108.22/Euro RISES TO 0.9986

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.39/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.338%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.55% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.51%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.90//

3j Gold at $1762.50 silver at: 19.31  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 9/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.79//

3m oil into the 95 dollar handle for WTI and  101 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.39DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9634– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9621well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.091  DOWN 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.298 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,16

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Jump As China Adds Fresh 1 Trillion Yuan Stimulus, But J-Hole Jitters Dominate

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 08:04 AM

Futures jumped overnight after China revealed its latest massive stimulus (which however is still woefully insufficient to prop up the country’s crashing housing sector) steadied nerves in the nervous wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s key speech at 8am tomorrow.

Shortly after 2am ET, China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that analysts quickly agreed won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump.  The State Council, China’s Cabinet, outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday, including another 300 billion yuan that state policy banks can invest in infrastructure projects, on top of 300 billion yuan already announced at the end of June. Local governments will be allocated 500 billion yuan of special bonds from previously unused quotas. However, as has been the case for the past 2 years with Beijing’s drip-drip stimulus, economists were downbeat on the measures, while financial markets were muted. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 2 basis points to 2.65%. China’s CSI 300 Index of stocks rose as much as 0.6% before paring gains to trade up 0.3% as of 2:28 p.m. local time. A similar reaction was observed in US futures which initially spiked by nearly 30 points, reaching a high of 4187.5 before fading most of the gains; emini futures traded +0.6%, or 25 points higher, at 7:30am  ET, while Nasdaq futures were up 0.85%.  Emerging-market stocks also rallied the most in two weeks on the Chinese stimulus news, only to see gains fade. Treasury yields and a dollar gauge dipped, while the crypto space rose on China’s stimulus.

The Chinese-inspired gains failed to stick as traders expect markets to remain volatile as they look to Powell’s comments due Friday at the Jackson Hole meeting for clues on the pace of US monetary tightening. Fed officials in the run-up to Jackson Hole have been clear they see more monetary tightening ahead, a message that’s eroded a bounce in stocks and bonds from mid-June troughs. The tension in markets is whether those assets will continue to head back toward the lows of the year.

“Powell is likely to push back on premature expectations of a dovish pivot, reiterating the focus on the fight against high inflation,” said Silvia Dall’Angelo, a senior economist at Federated Hermes Ltd. “Whether markets take him seriously amid an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy is yet to be seen.”

In premarket trading, Chinese stocks in the US rallied amid recent positivity over Beijing boosting stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan of funding, and as the country takes measures to shore up its currency. Tesla shares rose 2% as the electric-vehicle maker’s 3-for-1 stock split takes effect, confirming US markets remain dominated by idiots. Snowflake shares soared ~17% in premarket trading after the infrastructure software company reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for product revenue. On the other end, Nvidia shares slide ~4% in premarket trading after the chipmaker, which preannounced a month ago and gave a dire forecast, did it again and gave a third- quarter revenue forecast that was below expectations as demand for chips used in gaming computers slipped. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Salesforce (CRM US) shares are down 6.6% in premarket trading after the application- software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations but lowered its full-year forecast. Analysts note that the company’s forecast is being hit by FX headwinds and delays in closing large deals.
  • Teladoc Health (TDOC US) shares climb 5% in premarket trading after Amazon says it will close its primary care and telehealth service by the end of the year.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares rose as much as 6% in US premarket trading before turning lower. The fluctuation follows a report that the home furnishings retailer is nearing a $375 million loan deal with Sixth Street Partners.
  • Kinetik (KNTK US) initiated with an equal-weight recommendation and Street-high price target at Morgan Stanley, which says the midstream services company offers an “attractively positioned set of Permian midstream assets run by a growth-oriented management team.”
  • NetApp (NTAP US) shares were up ~4% in extended trading after the computer hardware company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and affirmed its forecast. Analysts note the company continues to see broad-based demand strength, despite supply challenges and FX headwinds.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, paring an earlier advance amid mixed economic data from the region’s biggest economy. Energy and basic resources stocks were the biggest gainers, with retailers underperforming. Sovereign bonds across Europe gained led by short-end bonds. IBEX outperforms, adding 0.6%, FTSE MIB lags, adding 0.1%. In fixed income, short-end bonds lead the move. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Harbour Energy shares jump as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, as analysts applaud an increased buyback and strong cash flows. Jefferies says 1H results “beat on all metrics”
  • Ambu rises as much as 11% on its latest earnings, which were in-line with figures released on Aug. 3. Handelsbanken sees a “no drama” report and DNB highlights a positive free cash flow
  • Rentokil gains as much as 2.7% after JPMorgan put the pest control company on a positive catalyst watch as the closing date for the Terminix acquisition nears
  • Hunting rises as much as 19% after the company posted better-than-expected profitability, while the outlook for the rest of 2022 and 2023 is positive
  • Yara gains as much as 2.8% as Citi flags rising demand for fertilizers. Yara earlier said it would cut production, citing record gas prices
  • Tessenderlo climbs as much as 8.1% to a level last seen in April after the Belgian chemicals company raised annual guidance again and said it sees adjusted Ebitda for the year rising 15% to 20%
  • Komax rises as much as 5% after Credit Suisse raises the wire processing machines maker to outperform, seeing its recent merger with Schleuniger as highly- accretive
  • Elekta falls as much as 11%  after the firm presented its latest earnings. Jefferies noted a “disappointing” drop in order intake, while Handelsbanken flags a soft outlook
  • Baloise drops as much as 7.6%, hitting the lowest since March, after the Swiss financial services firm reported solid, “yet unspectacular” results, according to Vontobel
  • Daetwyler falls as much as 6.3%, the most since May, as Credit Suisse cut its price target on the rubber components and seals maker following its results in the prior session
  • Grafton declines as much as 5.4% after reporting 1H profit that missed expectations. The company said the weakness was due to hot weather in the UK and less construction activity

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded strongly after a five-day loss to head for their biggest advance since the end of May, boosted by a late surge in Hong Kong shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.6% late in the Asian day, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent being the biggest contributors to its gain. The gauge’s increase earlier in the session was driven by export-heavy markets like Korea and Taiwan as the dollar weakened. The Hang Seng Index surged 3.6%, the most since April 29, leading the late regional rebound that some traders attributed to short-covering ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference. The morning trading session in Hong Kong was suspended due to a tropical storm warning. The amount of bearish bets against Hong Kong stocks rose to levels that could trigger a surge in share prices as traders rush to close out their positions, according to quantitative analysts at Morgan Stanley. A gauge of Chinese tech names listed in the financial hub soared 6%. It is still down about 25% this year. Markets have been edgy ahead of Powell’s speech, with the MSCI Asia gauge losing 3.1% in the last five sessions.

Thursday’s move looks like “pre-positioning,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are taking positions on expectations” of a less hawkish commentary from Powell, he said. Chinese stocks on the mainland also rose as the nation stepped up measures to bolster growth with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of stimulus. South Korean shares gained on foreign buying even after the nation’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, while Taiwanese stocks also climbed. “It may be a combination of risk-on sentiment across the region heading into Jackson Hole and the China support measures,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. “Growth, tech and offshore-listed China stocks are leading gains suggesting that Fed meeting may be playing a bigger role in the late-day move.”

Japanese equities advanced, with the Nikkei 225 posting its first gain in six sessions, as the market looked ahead to remarks Friday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting. The Nikkei rose 0.6% to close at 28,479.01, while the Topix added 0.5% to 1,976.60. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 4.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,445 rose and 597 fell, while 128 were unchanged. “Investors will continue to take a wait-and-see stance until after the speech by Chairman Powell scheduled for the 26th,” said Takashi Ito, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities. “After a round of buying, there is a possibility that there will be a small drop.” 

Australia,’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,048.10, driven by gains in banks and mining shares. The materials sub-gauge rallied to its highest level since June 16, amid advances in iron ore prices.  Uranium company Paladin was the top performer, surging after Japan said it is planning a dramatic shift back to nuclear power more than a decade on from the Fukushima disaster. City Chic was the biggest decliner after it flagged an uncertain outlook.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,627.14

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The Aussie led G-10 gains, jumping as much as 1.1% against the greenback as traders turned more optimistic after China announced fresh economic stimulus with a further $146 billion of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending. Australia’s dollar outperformed the kiwi after New Zealand reported disappointing retail sales data. The euro rose to briefly trade above parity against the dollar. Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine; the initial reading was 0%. Separately, German Aug. Ifo business confidence came in at 88.5 vs est. 86.8. The gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4, but better than forecast 79.0. Yen rose on flows-driven trade amid a decline in US yields and general dollar weakness during Asian hours

In rates, Treasury futures were off session highs into the early US session, although yields remained richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve, following wider gains across UK gilts where 10s rally as much as 7bp on the day. US 10-year yields around 3.09%, richer by ~1bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 5bp in the sector; curves steady with gains seen across maturities. US auctions conclude with 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time. European bonds advanced in a rally that was led by Italian bonds. Gilts outperform USTs and bunds; gilts 2-year yields drop ~10bps to 2.81%. USTs push higher, led by the belly.  Bunds 2-year yield down about 5.5bps to 0.85%. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 5.1bps to 225.7bps.  Benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed to its highest in more than a month. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds rises the most since June 27 after the State Council outlined a 19-point policy package to stimulate the economy. The 10-year yield advanced 3bps to 2.66% while the 30-year note yield gained 3bps to 3.14%.

Bitcoin is essentially unchanged but closer to the top-end of circa. USD 500 parameters that reside well within the USD 21k area.

WTI jerked drifts 0.4% higher to around $95 after the WSJ reported that the OPEC president is open to cutting oil production. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $13 to trade near $1,764/oz.  Natural gas has surged to fresh highs, intensifying an energy crisis that threatens the euro-area economy and hence the global outlook.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 4,179.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 435.05
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 160.34
  • MXAPJ up 2.0% to 523.18
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,479.01
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,976.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.6% to 19,968.38
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,246.25
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 59,385.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,048.13
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,477.26
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.0004
  • Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,765.17
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.45% to 108.18

Top overnight news from Bloomberg

  • China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending, support that likely won’t go far enough to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump
  • As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls
  • European natural gas extended its blistering rally as the worst supply crunch in decades boosts pressure on politicians to do more to rescue industries and households. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 8.1%, after closing at a record on Wednesday
  • The good news is that Ukraine’s crucial grain is leaving its ports again. The bad news is that farmland lost to the war and weak local prices are threatening its next wheat harvest
  • Climate change is having a “clear impact” on inflation in the euro area, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview
  • The current state of the economy and prices doesn’t allow the Bank of Japan’s easing bias to be shifted to neutral, board member Toyoaki Nakamura tells reporters

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St but with gains capped as attention remained on the looming Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was led higher by commodity stocks after the recent upside in energy and precious metals. Nikkei 225 was underpinned as the government mulled a further loosening of COVID rules and is expected to extend local travel incentives through next month. Shanghai Comp was initially choppy amid the absence of Stock Connect flows after morning trade in Hong Kong was cancelled, although the mood gradually improved with Hong Kong opening for the afternoon session after the storm signal 8 was dropped and following the recent support pledges by China.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Industry Ministry says will accelerate research and development of new types of batteries including sodium-ion batters and hydrogen energy storage batteries; will improve supply capabilities of key resources including lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum.
  • Some of China’s sate-backed financial firms are said to be pushing back on calls to support the Chinese property sector amid the exposure risk on their balance sheets, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • BoK hiked its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BoK said inflation will remain high for the time being and export growth is to slow, while Governor Rhee said strong inflation could last longer than previously seen. Furthermore, Rhee noted that policies will continue to be inflation-focused for a while and said there will be no change in the 25bps rate increase stance for the foreseeable future.
  • China Human Resources Ministry official said they will focus on expanding jobs and will promote fiscal, monetary and industrial policies to support job market stabilisation, according to Reuters.

European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated since. Fresh drivers have been slim with the German Ifo release sparking a brief extension on initial gains of circa. 50 points in Euro Stoxx 50, for instance. Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).

Top European News

  • ECB’s Lagarde says “we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.”.
  • Private Jet Shortage Hits English Football’s Pre-Match Prep
  • Veolia Must Sell 3 Businesses to Complete Suez Deal, UK Says
  • Germany Aug. IFO Business Confidence Index 88.5; Est. 86.8
  • London’s Stock Market Misery Grows as Delistings Add to IPO Woes

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent October contracts consolidated in the early hours following a session of gains yesterday.
  • Spot gold is edging higher in tandem with the decline in the Dollar, with the yellow metal approaching its 50 and 21 DMAs.
  • Base metal futures are mostly firmer amid the softer Dollar, with 3M LME copper making its way further above USD 8,000/t.
  • Caspian Pipeline Consortium says the SPM-3 inspection has completed, mooring point is fine to work, via Reuters.
  • Italian government to update emergency plan for gas next week; will not announce gas rationing plan for now, according to Reuters citing government sources; to include tougher measures in case of further cut or stop of Russian gas flows.
  • German Network Regulator VP says is on right track with gas storage but more must be done; will reach 85% storage by October 1st

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks have derived a pronounced upward bias, despite pronounced pressure alongside initial equity strength and post-Ifo.
  • Pressure which has dissipated and given way to modest across the board strength with Bunds eyeing 151.00, Gilts above 111.00 and USTs firmer by 4 ticks.
  • Yield dynamics are mixed and are modestly off earlier WTD peaks given the above action, US 7yr due,

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Lagarde says “we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.”.
  • BoJ Board Member Nakamura says JPY has weakened significantly so far this year, high volatility has had big impact on Japan’s economy; premature to tweak the BoJ’s dovish guidance now, there are pros and cons to soft JPY, therefore will watch carefully but there is not much the BoJ can do as moves are driven by changes in US economy.
  • South Korean Presidential Office says closely monitoring forex markets, will take timely measures to stabilise the market.
  • Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter) says he has not decided whether a 50bp or 75bp increase is appropriate in September, at this point it is a coin toss, via WSJ. Key employment and inflation reports are due prior to the meeting, if data remains strong and inflation clearly doesn’t soften then it may make the case for another 75bp move. Too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked, some hopeful signs. Cautioned that expectations the Fed could reverse course in short-order and reduce rates fairly soon is misguided. Upbeat on the economic outlook.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.7%, prior -0.9%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 1.5%, prior 1.0%
    • GDP Price Index, est. 8.7%, prior 8.7%
    • PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%
  • 08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 252,000, prior 250,000
    • Continuing Claims, est. 1.44m, prior 1.44m
  • 11:00: Aug. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 10, prior 13

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been an eventful 24 hours for markets, with sovereign bonds selling off again as investors keep ratcheting up their expectations for central bank rate hikes over the months ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow could throw some more light on how far they’ll go, but the rise in yields has shown no sign of relenting ahead of that, not least since the energy situation in Europe keeps getting worse. In turn, that’s adding to fears that “peak inflation” might not actually have arrived yet for some countries, whilst policymakers are about to face some unenviable choices as they grapple with the worst stagflation we’ve seen in decades.

In terms of the specific moves yesterday, European natural gas futures (+8.59%) settled at another record high of €292 per megawatt-hour amidst growing supply concerns as we head towards the winter months. That wasn’t helped by the news after the European close the previous day, as Freeport LNG said that their natural gas terminal in Texas wouldn’t restart until early to mid-November, having previously been aiming for October. In addition, there’s also the usual Russian supply issues of late to contend with, and there are serious worries that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline might not resume at all following maintenance for three days from August 31. There wasn’t much respite to be found elsewhere either, as German power prices for next year hit a fresh record of their own at €643 per megawatt-hour.

With these supply shocks continuing to fester, investors moved to price in an increasingly aggressive response from central banks. In fact for the ECB, the hikes now priced in for 2022 are the most rapid we’ve seen to date, with an additional +133bps priced by year-end on top of the +50bps we already had in July. And looking further out, overnight index swaps are pricing in +194bps of hikes by June 2023 relative to today, which is up by +9.1bps on the day before. So it was little surprise that sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.2bps), OATs (+6.8bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) all moving higher.

Here in the UK those moves were even more pronounced, with gilts underperforming European sovereigns for a 7th consecutive session. That continues a pattern we’ve seen since the release of the stronger-than-expected UK CPI print last week, as investors have also moved to price in faster rate hikes from the Bank of England. Unlike their continental counterparts however, gilt yields are now at multi-year highs once again, with the 10yr gilt yield (+12.2bps) closing at its highest level since 2014, at 2.69%. Furthermore, the 2s10s curve in the UK flattened a further -9.7bps, leaving it deeper in inversion territory than at any time since 2008.

Over in the US, all attention is on what Fed Chair Powell might say tomorrow at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Nevertheless, the performance for Treasuries echoed what happened in Europe, with 10yr yields up +5.8bps on the day to 3.10%, which is their highest level since late June. They’ve remained fairly stable around those levels overnight too, coming down just -0.9bps. Given the US faces a more favourable situation on the energy side, the moves in central bank pricing weren’t as pronounced as in Europe yesterday. But the peak rate priced in by Fed funds futures for March 2023 still rose +3.5bps on the day as investors continued to adjust their policy expectations closer towards the more hawkish rhetoric from FOMC officials.

Equities weren’t too affected by those developments on the rates side yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.29%) paring back its initial losses to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tech stocks were a big outperformer, with the FANG+ index (+0.96%) of megacap tech stocks seeing sizeable gains, while the NASDAQ (+0.41%) also put in a decent performance. A number of European indices did lose ground on the day however, including the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.22%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (-0.35%), although the broader STOXX 600 did manage to advance +0.16%.

That trend from the US has continued in Asian markets overnight, where equities are broadly trading higher. One supportive factor has been a further package of measures from China’s State Council that includes 1 trillion yuan focused largely on infrastructure spending. That’s bolstered the Shanghai Composite (+0.41%) and the CSI (+0.13%), although both are lagging the Nikkei (+0.56%) and the Kospi (+0.89%). The latter has seen strong gains after the Bank of Korea only hiked rates by 25bps overnight, marking a step down from the 50bps hike at the July meeting, yet the South Korean Won has still strengthened +0.43% against the US Dollar this morning. The Bank of Korea also moved their forecasts in a stagflationary direction, raising their inflation projection for this year to 5.2%, and cutting their growth forecast to 2.6%. Looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards additional gains today, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.35%.

Back on the energy scene, another notable trend over the last week has been a decent recovery in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+1.0%) closing at its highest level so far this month, at $101.22/bbl. And this morning it’s seen further gains as well, up +0.56% to $101.79/bbl. Bear in mind that early last week it had closed at $92.34/bbl, so that’s a recovery of just over +10% since that point. That echoes the recovery we’ve seen in commodities more broadly over recent weeks as well, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+0.67%) closing at a 2-month high yesterday.

Separately, we heard from President Biden yesterday, who announced student debt relief of up to $10,000 for those with an individual income of less than $125,000. For Pell Grant recipients, the relief would be up to $20,000. Furthermore, the current pause on federal student loan repayments is being extended again through the rest of 2022, taking that beyond the mid-term elections in November. Speaking of the midterms, there are signs that the Democrats’ political fortunes are continuing to rise after they won the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district, which had been a closely watched swing race. In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Senate now gives the Democrats a 64% chance of retaining control, their highest number to date. For the House, their model puts them at a 22% chance of retaining control.

On the data side yesterday we had a mixed set of releases from the US. On the positive side, the preliminary reading for core capital goods orders in July showed a +0.4% gain (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month also saw an upward revision of two-tenths to +0.9%. Durable goods orders were unchanged (vs. +0.8% expected), although excluding transportation they were up +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected). Finally, pending home sales fell -1.0% to their lowest level since April 2020. That was better than the -2.6% decline expected, but if you exclude April 2020 during the lockdowns then you’ve got to go back to September 2011 to find a lower reading for that index, which echoes the decline in various housing indicators we’ve seen recently.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity in index. In Germany there’s also the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator for August. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the account of the ECB’s July meeting.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Initial pronounced price action has eased somewhat as we await Jackson Hole – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 06:56 AM

  • European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated.
  • Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).
  • DXY remains on a softer fitting from the APAC session, peers broadly benefitting though magnitudes differ; Antipodeans outpace, EUR lags
  • Another session of two-way action for core debt, which has ultimately resulted in a pronounced move higher
  • Crude benchmarks consolidate, awaiting updates to the Iranian nuclear deal; gold bid on USD downside
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes, supply from the US.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes, supply from the US.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US State Department said planned tribunals in Russia-controlled Mariupol are illegitimate and a mockery of justice, according to Reuters.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that Russia’s missile strike on a train station full of civilians in Ukraine fits a pattern of atrocities, while he added the US will continue with partners to stand with Ukraine and seek accountability for Russian officials.
  • US President Biden should take urgent action to make the deteriorating Zaporizhia, Ukraine nuclear situation an admin. priority, via WSJ citing a bipartisan letter.
  • IAEA’s Grossi says we are very, very close to reaching an agreement on access to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, via France 24TV.

OTHER

  • WSJ’s Norman regarding the US response to the Iranian proposal, says “hearing this morning that the US response to Iran was much firmer than the Iranians had hoped. But that doesn’t mean Iran will say no.”
  • Ukrainian Presidential Office says negotiating with Russia to end the war now is inappropriate and any temporary truce will mean continued aggression, according to Al Jazeera.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB’s Lagarde says “we can no longer rely exclusively on the projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years.”.
  • BoJ Board Member Nakamura says JPY has weakened significantly so far this year, high volatility has had big impact on Japan’s economy; premature to tweak the BoJ’s dovish guidance now, there are pros and cons to soft JPY, therefore will watch carefully but there is not much the BoJ can do as moves are driven by changes in US economy.
  • South Korean Presidential Office says closely monitoring forex markets, will take timely measures to stabilise the market.
  • Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter) says he has not decided whether a 50bp or 75bp increase is appropriate in September, at this point it is a coin toss, via WSJ. Key employment and inflation reports are due prior to the meeting, if data remains strong and inflation clearly doesn’t soften then it may make the case for another 75bp move. Too soon to say the inflation surge has peaked, some hopeful signs. Cautioned that expectations the Fed could reverse course in short-order and reduce rates fairly soon is misguided. Upbeat on the economic outlook.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated since.
  • Fresh drivers have been slim with the German Ifo release sparking a brief extension on initial gains of circa. 50 points in Euro Stoxx 50, for instance.
  • Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has been on a softer footing since APAC hours and briefly dipped under 108.00.
  • G10s are broadly firmer vs the USD but to varying degrees, with the EUR and GBP towards the bottom of the bunch.
  • Antipodeans stand as the current outperformers amid the softer Dollar and rise in base metals.
  • JPY is firmer against the USD, relatively flat vs GBP and EUR, and softer vs the AUD.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks have derived a pronounced upward bias, despite pronounced pressure alongside initial equity strength and post-Ifo.
  • Pressure which has dissipated and given way to modest across the board strength with Bunds eyeing 151.00, Gilts above 111.00 and USTs firmer by 4 ticks.
  • Yield dynamics are mixed and are modestly off earlier WTD peaks given the above action, US 7yr due,
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent October contracts consolidated in the early hours following a session of gains yesterday.
  • Spot gold is edging higher in tandem with the decline in the Dollar, with the yellow metal approaching its 50 and 21 DMAs.
  • Base metal futures are mostly firmer amid the softer Dollar, with 3M LME copper making its way further above USD 8,000/t.
  • Caspian Pipeline Consortium says the SPM-3 inspection has completed, mooring point is fine to work, via Reuters.
  • Italian government to update emergency plan for gas next week; will not announce gas rationing plan for now, according to Reuters citing government sources; to include tougher measures in case of further cut or stop of Russian gas flows.
  • German Network Regulator VP says is on right track with gas storage but more must be done; will reach 85% storage by October 1st
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK car production rose for a 3rd consecutive month with output up 8.6% Y/Y to 58k units in July, according to SMMT.

NOTABLE DATA

  • German Ifo Business Climate New (Aug) 88.5 vs. Exp. 86.8 (Prev. 88.6, Rev. 88.7); Expectations New (Aug) 80.3 vs. Exp. 79.0 (Prev. 80.3, Rev. 80.4); Current Conditions New (Aug) 97.5 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 97.7)
  • Ifo: A recession remains on the cards; expect Q3 GDP to shrink by around half a percentage point, almost half of companies intend to increase prices in the coming three months, good news is that supply chain bottlenecks have eased significantly; not yet an all clear on bottlenecks.
  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (Aug) 37 vs. Exp. -7.0 (Prev. -4.0).

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is essentially unchanged but closer to the top-end of circa. USD 500 parameters that reside well within the USD 21k area.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St but with gains capped as attention remained on the looming Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by commodity stocks after the recent upside in energy and precious metals.
  • Nikkei 225 was underpinned as the government mulled a further loosening of COVID rules and is expected to extend local travel incentives through next month.
  • Shanghai Comp was initially choppy amid the absence of Stock Connect flows after morning trade in Hong Kong was cancelled, although the mood gradually improved with Hong Kong opening for the afternoon session after the storm signal 8 was dropped and following the recent support pledges by China.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • New Zealand Retail Sales YY (Q2) -3.7% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • New Zealand Retail Sales QQ (Q2) -2.3% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.9%)
  • Japanese Services PPI YY (Jul) 2.1% vs Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.0%)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Chinese Industry Ministry says will accelerate research and development of new types of batteries including sodium-ion batters and hydrogen energy storage batteries; will improve supply capabilities of key resources including lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum.
  • Some of China’s sate-backed financial firms are said to be pushing back on calls to support the Chinese property sector amid the exposure risk on their balance sheets, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • BoK hiked its base rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BoK said inflation will remain high for the time being and export growth is to slow, while Governor Rhee said strong inflation could last longer than previously seen. Furthermore, Rhee noted that policies will continue to be inflation-focused for a while and said there will be no change in the 25bps rate increase stance for the foreseeable future.
  • China Human Resources Ministry official said they will focus on expanding jobs and will promote fiscal, monetary and industrial policies to support job market stabilisation, according to Reuters.

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.05 PTS OR 0.97%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 699.64 OR 3.63%    /The Nikkei closed UP 165.54 OR % 0.58.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.8523//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.8576//    /Oil UP TO 95.20  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 101.80//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/POWER CRISIS

This will certainly hurt China’s economy as Tesla and Nio EV charging stations go dark as China rations power

(zerohedge))

Tesla, Nio EV Charging Stations Go Dark As China Rations Power

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 09:25 AM

The sprawling municipality of Chengdu in Sichuan province and nearby Chongqing (all located in southwestern China) — where scorching heatwaves and lack of rainfall slashed hydropower generation, resulting in weeks of power rationings at some of the largest factories in the country, have reportedly spread to EV charging stations. 

Bloomberg reported that some Tesla Inc. and Nio Inc. charging stations in Chengdu and Chongqing (both metro areas have a combined +46 million people) had been turned off because of power conservation measures, leaving drivers unable to charge their EVs.  

Nio’s charging app informed owners that some of its Chengdu battery-swap stations are “offline” this week because of a “severe overload on the grid under the persisting high temperatures.” 

Dozens of Telsa super-charging stations in the two cities switched off or had restrictive services, leaving only two operational during the night. 

The crux of the electricity shortage in the province is that it relies on hydropower for 82% of its power generation and is experiencing the worst drought in decades as triple-digit temperatures and lack of rainfall reduce water levels in main reservoirs. 

The impacts have also led to power cuts for manufacturers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and battery producer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., which have shuttered operations. 

With an unstable power grid, China’s race to electrify its future with EVs will be challenging. The only way for a stable grid is nuclear power.

end

Even with huge stimulus already announced, it is still not enough

(zerohedge)

“It’s Not Enough”: A Deeper Look Inside China’s Latest 1 Trillion Yuan Stimulus

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 11:28 AM

A few days ago we mocked the relentless China newsmill, saying that “Every day there are 5 stories about some new imminent stimulus out of China and every day nothing at all happens.”

Well, it appears that someone in Beijing heard us because just days later we got not one but two major “stimmy” developments:

The first one hit early on Monday when we learned that to contain the collapse of China’s critical housing sector, which at $62 trillion is the world’s largest asset class…

… Beijing would offer 200 billion yuan ($29.3 billion) in “special loans” to ensure stalled housing projects are delivered to buyers. This new lending program “would make it the biggest financial commitment yet from Beijing to contain a property crisis that’s seen home prices slump and real estate sales plummet, at a time when growing housing market instability also means a growing threat to political stability during the sensitive run-up to the Communist Party’s leadership transition later this year.

The second stimulus hit overnight, when China unexpectedly stepped up its economic stimulus with a further 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) of funding focused on infrastructure spending, support which analysts quickly calculated won’t go nearly far enough to either counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump, or to reboot the struggling Chinese economy which has is on the verge of contraction.

On Wedneseday, the State Council – China’s Cabinet – outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday, including another 300 billion yuan that state policy banks can invest in infrastructure projects, on top of 300 billion yuan already announced at the end of June. Local governments will be allocated 500 billion yuan of special bonds from previously unused quotas.

At a meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, the State Council vowed to make use of “tools available in the toolbox” to maintain a reasonable policy scale in a timely and decisive manner, and announced a series of growth supportive measures, including an additional 300bn yuan credit support by policy banks and RMB 200bn bond issuance by power generating central SOEs. Li also pledged to accelerate infrastructure investment project approvals, and urged local governments to better utilize the RMB500bn local government bond issuance allowance accumulated from previous years’ unused quota.

The Chinese Premier also urged local governments to distribute RMB10bn subsidies to the agricultural sector, and further urged relevant government institutions to announce detailed implementation plans for these measures; and stated that policymakers would approve a batch of infrastructure investment projects (though he also required policymakers to ensure the quality of these projects).

The 19 measures came on top of several recent stimulus steps: policy banks have been allocated a total of 1.1 trillion yuan of financing for infrastructure projects since June; the central bank delivered a surprise 10 basis-point interest rate cut last week; and in May, Beijing announced about 1.9 trillion yuan of support measures in a 33-point policy package, including targeting small businesses. The State Council on Wednesday also pledged to approve a batch of infrastructure projects. Local authorities are encouraged to use city-specific credit policies to support reasonable housing demand, it said.

However, to counter speculation that Beijing is finally turning the tide on years of fiscal frugality, the State Council also said the economy won’t be flooded with excessive stimulus, and that China won’t “overdraw” on the room it has to take more policy action to protect longer-term growth – reiterating the cautious stance officials have taken toward stimulus in recent years.

The meeting sent a signal: “Don’t expect massive additional stimulus,” according to Bruce Pang, head of research and chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. He added that the language used in the announcement suggested “the possibility of adopting extraordinary tools such as special sovereign bonds or increasing official budget deficit has decreased.”

Commenting on the stimulus, Goldman said that in its view, the RMB300bn credit support (equivalent to around 0.3% of GDP) is a new supportive measure, while the RMB 500bn potential local government special bond issuance echoes the statement in the July Politburo meeting, but was significantly smaller than the RMB 1.5tn difference between the allowed total LGSB outstanding (RMB 21.8tn) and the actual outstanding (RMB 20.4tn). Whether the RMB200bn bond issuance by power generating central SOEs represents incremental policy support remains to be seen.

The bank also believes that these measures could help offset the sharp contraction in government revenue and support infrastructure investment growth to some degree in coming months. However, with a very weak property sector, and headwinds to activity growth from local Covid outbreaks and related control measures, barring major policy easing measures, we think overall growth would remain sluggish during the rest of this year (Goldman recently downgraded its 2022 full-year GDP growth to 3.0% yoy).

“We’re getting easing, but it’s not quickly enough to keep up with the pace of deterioration in the broader economy,” said Andrew Tilton, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Goldman Sachs, in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “More domestic policy easing and improved growth and domestic demand is going to be key as we get into 2023.”

Others agreed: Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu wrote that “China’s latest package isn’t enough to turn the economy around. It will create more public demand that will partially fill a growing hole left by a retreating private sector — giving some support to growth. What it won’t do is deliver a confidence boost that’s needed to prompt households to spend more and companies to invest more.”

The 500 billion yuan in additional local government special bonds this year is smaller than what some analysts had expected, given the estimated amount of unused quota could be as high as 1.5 trillion yuan. Local authorities have accelerated their issuance of the bonds — a major source for infrastructure investment — this year compared with previous years, and have used up most of the 3.65 trillion yuan in official quota set early this year.

Nomura economists led by Lu Ting said Thursday the measures aren’t “game-changers.” That’s partially because the property sector is still in deep trouble, they wrote in a research note, pointing out that in previous easing cycles, real estate played a major role in pumping up credit demand among households, companies and local governments.

Indeed, Despite the surprise one-two stimulus punch out of China this week, economists were downbeat on the measures, while financial markets were muted. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 2 basis points to 2.65%. China’s CSI 300 Index of stocks rose as much as 0.6% before paring gains to trade up 0.3%.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK/

Half of UK households will be in fuel poverty by this January

(Slav/OilPrice.com)

Half Of UK Households Will Be In Fuel-Poverty By January

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via Oilprice.com,

As many as half of British households may be facing fuel poverty because of the inexorable rise in energy prices, EDF, the French utility that also has business in the UK, has warned.

“When you look at the figures more than half of UK households will be in fuel poverty in January, meaning they will have to spend more than 10% of their disposable income on their energy bill,” Philippe Commaret, managing director of customers at EDF told a BBC TV program, as quoted by Energy Live news.

The UK’s energy market regulator Ofgem is set to announce the latest energy price cap this week, which will see electricity bills for millions of Britons rise considerably.

The price cap, aimed to protect households from excessively high bills by capping the price increases that providers can pass on to them, normally gets adjusted twice a year.

In April this year, the cap was raised by more than 50%, doubling the number of fuel-stressed households in the UK overnight. But the UK hasn’t seen the worst of its cost-of-living crisis as energy bills were expected to soar by another 42% in October when the energy regulator will raise the energy price cap again.  

The UK Misery Index is at its worst level since the start of John Major’s term as Prime Minister…

But the adjustment looks like it would be even higher than previously expected, with the latest forecasts seeing bills topping 6,500 pounds annually for millions of households next year, all because of higher natural gas prices. This is equivalent to about $7,600 per year.

The UK imports gas from Europe, which has made it vulnerable to the effects of EU political action despite Brexit.

“The impact has been exacerbated by high electricity prices in Europe, where drought conditions have affected hydro power plants and unplanned outages have reduced French nuclear output,” a senior VP from Moody’s told CNBC this week in comments on the UK’s energy situation.

END

UK

UK government warned by energy executives of civil unrest over citizens inability to pay energy bills

(Watson/SummitNews)

UK Government Warned Of “Civil Unrest” Over People’s Inability To Pay Energy Bills

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Energy executives in the UK have warned the government that the country faces the prospect of mass civil unrest as a result of people being unable to afford their heating and electricity bills this winter.

The government is being asked to approve “radical” COVID-style bailouts for small businesses which face total ruination as a result of soaring energy costs.

“Energy company bosses have warned ministers they fear civil unrest if nothing is done to cushion the blow of rising bills,” reports the Telegraph.

One senior industry figure said that when people “realize how bad this is going to get,” they could take their anger to the streets in the form of violent demonstrations.

The comments are similar in nature to those made by campaigner Tom Scott, who is urging people to refuse to pay their bills, and says social disorder is on the horizon.

“There was a major riot in London [in 1990],” said Scott, referring to the poll tax riots.

“That’s not something I would like to see, but I think it’s almost inevitable that unless the Government does take much more effective action to help people, there will be widespread civil unrest.”

Despite the warnings, Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to insist that Brits should maintain their support for ‘the current thing’ – by prolonging the war in Ukraine.

“We also know that if we’re paying in our energy bills for the evils of Vladimir Putin, the people of Ukraine are paying in their blood,” said Johnson.

“And that’s why we know we must stay the course. Because if Putin were to succeed, then no country on Russia’s perimeter would be safe, and… (that) would be a green light for every autocrat in the world that borders could be changed by force,” he added.

Even as many Brits struggle to pay for basic necessities, with food inflation also soaring, Johnson just approved a further £54 million of taxpayer money to be sent to Ukraine to buy new weapons systems.

Energy bills are set to soar to £6,522 by next April, a level that threatens to push a third of the country into poverty.

“Consultancy Auxilione said the price cap will be three times the current limit of £1,971-a-year,” reports the Daily Mail, with bills having been closer to £1,000 a year before the start of the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the UK continues to pursue disastrous ‘net zero’ green energy policies that are unfit for purpose while refusing to allow fracking, which would solve the country’s energy crisis in a heartbeat.

Perhaps many Brits will choose to keep warm this winter by lighting fires on the streets instead of paying their heating bills at home.

*  *  *

end

FRANCE

Now it is France’s Macron turn to warn of the end of abundance as a difficult winter approaches

(zerohedge)

“End Of Abundance”: Macron Warns Of “Major Tipping Point” And “Great Upheaval” As Difficult Winter Approaches

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 06:55 AM

With much of Europe facing a cold winter thanks to the war in Ukraine, various leaders have been sounding the alarm over the ‘sacrifices’ people are going to have to make in order to maintain opposition to Vladimir Putin – who’s betting on fracturing the EU due to Russia’s immense leverage over energy.The equestrian statue of Frederick the Great on Unter den Linden Avenue in Berlin after the illumination was switched off on July 27. (Omer Messinger/Getty Images)

On Wednesday we reported that that both EU policy Chief Josep Borrell warned that “wary” EU populations would have to endure deep economic pain and a severe energy crunch – while calling on the citizenry to “bear the consequences” with continued resolve.

The same day, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo went much further – suggesting that “the next 5 to 10 winters will be difficult.”

“The development of the situation is very difficult throughout Europe,” De Croo told Belgium broadcaster VRT. 

“In a number of sectors, it is really difficult to deal with those high energy prices. We are monitoring this closely, but we must be transparent: the coming months will be difficult, the coming winters will be difficult,” he said. 

The prime minister’s comments suggest replacing Russian natural gas imports could take years, exerting further economic doom on the region’s economy in the form of energy hyperinflation.

And in yet another ominous warning in what must have been coordinated messaging, French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday went even further  – warning at his first cabinet meeting after the summer holidays that the French should expect to make deep sacrifices in what he called the “end of abundance.”

Speaking before ministers at the Élysée, Macron said that the country was at a “tipping point” as it faced a difficult winter and a new era of instability due to climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to The Guardian.

What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance … the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available … the end of the abundance of land and materials including water,” he said, adding that France and the French felt that they’ve been living under a series of crises, “each worse than the last.”

“This overview that I’m giving, the end of abundance, the end of insouciance, the end of assumptions – it’s ultimately a tipping point that we are going through that can lead our citizens to feel a lot of anxiety. Faced with this, we have a duty, duties, the first of which is to speak frankly and clearly without doom-mongering,” Macron continued, adding that France, Europe and the world had possibly been too “insouciant” about threats to democracy and human rights – while warning of the “rise of illiberal regimes and strengthening of authoritarian regimes.”

Tone deaf?

According to the report, Philippe Martinez, the secretary general of the powerful CGT union criticized Macron’s comments as being “misplaced” – adding that many French citizens have never known abundance.Philippe Martinez, pictured here in June 2022. Photograph: Luc Nobout/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock

“When we talk about the end of abundance, I think of the millions of unemployed, the millions of those in a precarious situation. For many French people, times are already hard, sacrifices have already been made,” he said.

The president’s warnings came as it was revealed that the dividends paid out by major French companies reached a record €44bn in the second quarter of 2022, as a result of what were described as exceptional profits in 2021. The economic newspaper Les Echos said the dividend payout was almost 33% up on the previous year and was the result of a post-Covid economic catchup.

Macron, who was re-elected for a second five-year term in April but lost his parliamentary majority in the subsequent general election, and his government are facing a rocky rentrée, the traditional September return to work and school after the long summer break in France.

After months of successive election campaigns, his newly appointed government had little time to establish itself before the holidays, putting this year’s return to parliamentary business under particular scrutiny. -The Guardian

During a commemoration ceremony for the allied invasion of Provence in 1944, Macron warned that this autumn and winter would be a difficult one – with the risk of energy shortages and high prices due to Russia’s war on Ukraine – which he referred to as “the price to pay for freedom.”

end

GERMANY

What a novel idea!! Bring back Nordstream No 2 to solve the energy crisis

(zerohedge)

German MP Says Russia’s Nord Stream 2 “Only Sensible Solution” To Energy Crisis

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 10:45 AM

The Russian energy giant Gazprom is set to reduce its natural gas supply to Germany further at the end of the month, sending power prices to record highs this week. To address the historic energy crisis, one German member of parliament has dreamed up a novel solution: Russia’s Nord Stream 2 NatGas pipeline could help solve the crisis

“Even if the gas storage facilities are full, there will be enough for about three months this winter. And then what? Ideology has to give way to a real fact-oriented policy… The only sensible solution is to launch Nord Stream 2,” Bundestag MP Steffen Kotre told Russian state-owned news agency TASS, who is a member of the German parliamentary committee on energy and climate protection. 

Kotre’s comments come as the cost of powering Germany has jumped to a new record high on Thursday. German power prices for next year soared 13% to a mind-numbing 725 euros ($726) a megawatt-hour, piling even more financial pressure on households and businesses. 

To put that in context with global energy costs, German power prices are trading at an equivalent to a $1,200 barrel of oil – far worse than the prior cold season, highlighting the debilitating economic impact on the country. 

Tighter NatGas from Russia is driving the exponential rise in power prices as capacity on Nord Stream 1 has been reduced to 20% and soon could be slashed to zero on Aug. 31. Some fear next week’s temporary cut on the pipeline may not resume. 

The German government affirmed earlier this month there are no plans to launch the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. It was completed last year but never awarded certification to operate.

Some German politicians are waking up to the absurdity of the whole ‘stick it to Putin’ by ditching cheap Russian energy supplies is a bad idea because it will mean a very dark winter of people freezing, energy hyperinflation, and recession risks where cold and hungry citizens could result in social instabilities. 

This may suggest growing discontent in German government that sacrificing the economy and households for NATO’s proxy fight against Russia in Ukraine might not be in their best interest. The question remains if Germany folds into winter. 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

Russia

Russia to begin referendums in the Ukraine asking the citizens to join Russia.  The White House is angry

(zerohedge)

White House Says Russia’s “Sham Referendums” In Ukraine To Begin In Days

WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 – 08:00 PM

The White House said Wednesday that it has information that Russia is imminently planning “sham” referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories, which is expected to come in weeks or even days. The US has learned that Russian leadership has instructed officials to begin preparing to hold sham referenda, particularly in Kharkiv, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters in a briefing.

“We have information that Russia continues to prepare to hold these sham referendum in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and the so called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics,” Kirby introduced. “We’ve also learned that the Russia leadership has instructed officials to begin preparing to hold a sham referenda, particularly in Kharkiv as well.”

“And these referenda could begin in a matter of days or weeks. In fact, we can see a Russian announcement of the first one or ones before the end of this week.” Kharkiv Oblast broadly is currently scene of heavy fighting, while Kharkiv city itself – which is Ukraine’s second largest – has this week been coming under heavy aerial bombardment.

“We expect Russia to try to manipulate the results of these referenda under the false claim of the Ukrainian people wanting to join Russia. It will be critical to call out and counter this disinformation in real time,” Kirby continued.

“Russian officials themselves know that what they’re doing will lack legitimacy, and it will not reflect the will of the people. The Ukrainian people, in any free and fair referendum, would vote overwhelmingly against joining Russia,” he added.

Washington and Ukraine had previously accused Moscow of the same tactics when it came to the 2014 Crimean status referendum. During a July briefing, Kirby had referenced Crimea is alleging that Russia’s goal is to roll out an annexation playbook for captured territories. Russian forces are currently slowly struggling to secure all of the Donbas.

Some reporting, including in The New York Times days ago, have strongly suggested a “static” of “stale-mated situation along the front lines of late. But Moscow on Wednesday offered an explanation, claiming that it had deliberately slowed its “special operation” out of a desire to protect local civilians

Everything is being done to avoid casualties among civilians,” Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday. “Of course, this slows down the pace of the offensive, but we are doing it deliberately.”

But countering this narrative, according to Reuters

Ukraine’s top military intelligence official said on Wednesday that Russia’s military offensive was slowing because of moral and physical fatigue in their ranks and Moscow’s “exhausted” resource base.

Casualty counts on either side has also been a source of skepticism and controversy, with both Ukrainian and US intelligence consistently saying Russia has lost into the many tens of thousands of troops, while the Kremlin has given much lower official figures.

end

More money to Ukraine as America falls apart

(Ron Paul/)

More Billions To Ukraine As America Falls Apart

WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

There is a video clip making the rounds showing President Biden speaking at a recent NATO summit about the seven billion dollars the US government had – at that time – provided to Ukraine. Attached to that is another clip showing the horrific state of several US major cities, including in Pennsylvania, California, and Ohio. The video of American cities is shocking: endless landscapes of filth, trash, homelessness, open fires on the street, drug-addicted zombies. It doesn’t look like the America most of us remember.

Watching Biden bragging about sending billions of dollars to corrupt leaders overseas with American cities looking like bombed-out Iraq or Libya is US foreign policy in a nutshell.

The Washington elites tell the rest of America that they must “promote democracy” in some far-off land. Anyone who objects is considered in league with the appointed enemy of the day. Once it was Saddam, then Assad and Gaddafi. Now it’s Putin. The game is the same, only the names are changed.

What is seldom asked, is what is in this deal for those Americans who suffer to pay for our interventionist foreign policy. Do they really think a working American in Ohio or Pennsylvania is better off or safer because we are supposedly protecting Ukraine’s borders? I think most Americans would wonder why they aren’t bothering to protect our own borders.

A reported 200,000 illegals crossed the border into the US in July alone. You can believe they are learning quickly about the free money provided by the US government to illegals. They’ll probably get a voting card as well.

Last Friday the Pentagon announced that yet another $775 million would be sent to Ukraine. As Antiwar.com reported, it was the eighteenth weapons package to Ukraine in six months. Has there ever been a more idiotic US intervention in history?

Supporters of this proxy war may celebrate more aid to Ukraine, but the reality is that it is in no way aid to Ukraine. That’s not how the system works. It is money created out of thin air by the Fed and appropriated by Congress to be spent propping up the politically-connected military-industrial complex. It is a big check written by middle America to rich people who run Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Americans watch their budget being stretched to the limit while the Beltway fat-cats loosen their belts to continue enjoying the gravy train.

Bloomberg reported earlier this summer that inflation is costing the average American household more than $5,200 this year. Inflation is a tax on middle class and poor Americans. The wealthy – like those who run Raytheon and Lockheed Martin – always get the new money first, before prices go up.

The rest of us watch as the dollar buys less and less.

As Washington salivates over fighting Russia in Ukraine, the rest of America feels like we’re becoming Zimbabwe.

How long until it takes a trillion dollars for a loaf of bread? Will there be a run on wheelbarrows?

There is a way out. It’s called “non-interventionism.” The war in Ukraine was caused by the US regime change in 2014 and the neocon insistence that Ukraine join NATO. The State Department and CIA thought it was a great victory to overthrow the elected government, but meanwhile the rest of us get the bill.

No NATO and not one more penny for Ukraine!

END

This is good: Ukraine exports 720,000 tonnes of food to the world under the grain export deal

DeCamp/Antiwar.com

Ukraine Exports 720,000 Tonnes of Food Under Grain Export Deal

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry reported Tuesday that a total of 33 cargo ships carrying about 720,000 tonnes of foodstuffs have left Ukraine since a deal to facilitate the export of grain out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports was implemented.

The numbers show that the deal between Russia and Ukraine that was brokered by the UN and Turkey and signed in July has been a success. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said that in addition to the 33 ships that have left, another 18 are loading and are preparing to depart from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.Image source: EPA via Shutterstock

The grain deal established a coordination center in Istanbul that is manned by officials from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN. The coordination center said the total amount of grain and foodstuffs exported since the deal was signed has reached 721,449 tonnes.

Under the deal, Ukraine agreed to escort ships out of its heavily mined ports and Russia agreed not to attack the areas while vessels were moving. Both Turkey and the UN have said they hope the grain deal could lead to more negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and, ultimately, a peace deal.

This week UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that “Getting more food and fertilizer out of Ukraine and Russia is critical to further calm commodity markets and lower prices for consumers.”

But there are no signs that peace talks will happen anytime soon as the US and other Western countries are pouring weapons into Ukraine and Ukrainian leadership insists they will take back the territory Russia has captured since February 24.

On top of sending billions in arms into Ukraine, the US has abandoned diplomacy with Russia and played no role in brokering the grain deal.

END

Dangerous indeed!
(zerohedge)

Ukrainian Nuclear Plant Was Cut From Power Grid For 1st Time In History

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 12:21 PM

Things have gone from bad to worse at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with the looming scenario of much of Ukraine facing a giant blackout. 

“The last two working reactors at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were disconnected from Ukraine’s electricity grid on Thursday after nearby fires damaged overhead power lines, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said,” Reuters reports, further giving subsequent confirmation that the whole power plant has been disconnected from the power grid Thursday for the first time in its history.

The connectivity monitoring group NetBlocks is also confirming a major disruption to all communications at the plant following Ukrainian state enterprise Energoatom announcing its been completely disconnected from the power grid. 

Reportedly the disconnection was due to fires as nearby ash pits, which Energoatom in its statement blamed on Russian forces: “The actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) from the power grid – the first in the history of the plant,” it wrote.

But in follow-up, the Russian-installed regional governor announced that “at the moment, the power supply to all cities and districts of the Zaporizhzhia region has been restored” following the disruptions, suggesting that there was a major temporary power outage across the region. It appears the power supply disruption was temporary:

IAEA SAYS UKRAINE TOLD IT THAT ZAPORIZHZHIA AT LEAST TWICE LOST CONNECTION TO THE POWER LINE DURING THE DAY BUT THAT IT WAS CURRENTLY UP AGAIN

According to further statements being reported by CNN:

In a separate statement, Ukraine’s State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation, which cited the nuclear operator Energoatom, said a power line from the plant was disconnected due to hostilities in the area.

As a result, one of the nuclear power units at the plant had also been disconnected, it said.

Among the Zaporizhzhia plant’s six reactors, only two are currently said to be operational. All of this comes amid a backdrop of negotiations for an IAEA emergency team to visit the complex.

While Russian President Putin said he has approved such a UN-IAEA visit, it’s yet to get off the ground. The latest statement from the nuclear inspection watchdog indicated the trip could come in “days”. 

“I’m continuing to consult very actively and intensively with all parties,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi had said Tuesday“The mission (to Zaporizhzhia) is expected to take place within the next few days if ongoing negotiations succeed.”

The greatest of all fears has been a ‘Chernobyl-style’ meltdown or event given for weeks there’s been active fighting and the site and shelling on sensitive parts of the facility, including which has in recent days taken out transformers.

Meanwhile, fears of larger blackouts as a result of these events and destabilization in Zaporizhzhia’s operations loom…

end

Escalation and rumor

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:54 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

The shut down of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant may avoid a dangerous melt down and radiation disaster throughout Europe. It is well known that the Ukrainian military has been shelling the power plant on a daily basis. In addition to that, they sent in sabotage groups that damaged a critical water coolant line, and also started fires in the surrounding area that were approaching the nuclear plant. This decision to shut the plan down, seemed to coincide with Putin’s emergency visit to the Duma and the released statement on the increase of military troops available for the military project in Ukraine. This is no doubt is not for the current daily artillery shelling of 60,000 + rounds or ground encounters. And there is no sign of Russia running out of ammo as is being announced daily. The take away should be that Russia has wartime capacity and capability, while the West does not. The ability of any Western ground action will be limited as the warehouses are no longer full. Nor is the supply chain there to fill them up.  And soon Ukraine will be put on a ammo diet. So expect anything and everything to be sold off as quickly as possible. To say that only 30% makes it while the rest is sold off questions what this proxy fight is all about. 

And this may have something to do with the notice to Rangers to deploy to Kiev, the other day. Yes, this deployment is likely to defend Kiev or to evacuate personnel there who likely will have waited too late. The question unanswered is how many thousands of American troops have already died in the Ukraine? As it is, a notice to Americans there has been in effective to leave by any means possible. And that should be clear enough. It is well known that the 1800 kilometer front line will collapse shortly. And with this collapse there is little to stop a leisurely advance to Kiev. Ukrainians collectively describe that front line as hell, and most would leave or escape, if they could. The lucky ones get to surrender and express their desire not to be exchanged back to western Ukraine. The unfortunate ones either suffer or die and are left to eaten by various carrion. NO Ukrainians do not bury the dead or even evacuate the seriously wounded. So imagine you have a relative or family member there knowing what awaits them. If Zelensky over stays, he will will be torn apart and fed to pigs. There is tremendous growing and escalating hatred towards him and his enablers. And this seems to increase daily now. They all face a day soon of running for their lives. Perhaps Florida or London will welcome them with their ill gotten blood stained wealth. The Ukrainian SBU is doing everything to silence anyone writing or openly dissenting from the territory of the Ukraine. And we have seen how the mass PR campaign targets politicians and/or countries who do not support the narrative. Even the neutral countries like Austria and Hungary who have chosen to stay out the fight are villains of a corrupt regime called the Ukraine. Perhaps their history has brought them wisdom not to doom their nations to the unearned lessons of their own history. 

At least grains are moving out of Odessa as quickly as the ships can be loaded which no doubt will serve to stave off hunger and starvation in parts of the world. So far 34 ships have left and another 18 are being loaded. So likely most of the grain available to be shipped will be shipped. And what, if any of current grains being grown is harvested et alone shipped in the future remains unknown. 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

 Fauci Claims Lockdowns Have Not “Irreparably Damaged Anyone”

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 12:45 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

In addition to claiming he has nothing to hide and was not responsible for shutting down anything, Anthony Fauci claimed Thursday that COVID lockdowns have not “irreparably damaged anyone”.

Fauci made the comments in an interview with FOX News host Neil Cavuto, who asked “do you regret that it went too far, whatever your original intentions were… particularly for kids who couldn’t go to school, except remotely, that it’s forever damaged them?”

In his response, Fauci even suggested that he tried to get kids back into schools, stating “I don’t think it’s forever irreparably damaged anyone. But I think, obviously, and you — if you go back — and people selectively, Neil, pull things out about me. I was also one of the people that said we have got to do everything we can to get the children back in school.”

Fauci is obviously preparing for the inevitable investigation coming his way.

Fauci’s claims that children have not been damaged run contrary to a mountain of studies and evidence highlighting how lockdowns and masking in particular have had massively detrimental impacts.

A study in Britain found that many children entering elementary school have severely underdeveloped verbal skills, with many are unable to even say their own name.

According to speech therapists, mask wearing has caused a 364% increase in patient referrals of babies and toddlers.

Another study revealed how mean IQ scores of young children born during the pandemic have tumbled by as much as 22 points while verbal, motor and cognitive performance have all suffered as a result of lockdown.

study published in the Royal Society Open Science journal found that lockdowns in the UK caused around 60,000 children to suffer clinical depression.

Figures show that 400,000 British children were referred to mental health specialists last year for things like eating disorders and self-harm.

Education experts have asserted that forcing schoolchildren to wear face masks has caused long lasting psychological trauma.

An Ofsted report also warned of serious delays in learning caused by lockdown restrictions.

“Children turning two years old will have been surrounded by adults wearing masks for their whole lives and have therefore been unable to see lip movements or mouth shapes as regularly,” states the report.

Another study out of Germany which found that the reading ability of children has plummeted compared to pre-COVID times thanks to lockdown policies that led to the closure of schools.

A study out of the renowned Johns Hopkins University earlier this year concluded that global lockdowns have had a much more detrimental impact on society than they have produced any benefit, with researchers urging that they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

*  *  *

end 

Paul Alexander..

Thank God! New York Times (NYT) Carroll is going nuts for only 5% or so of US parents have fallen for the fraud of the COVID jab for their kids! Damn Right there is loss of trust! JAILING time Fauci!

Carroll: ‘But as of early August, around 5 % of eligible children under 5 had received the first dose of the vaccine series. Worse, the number of them being immunized has been decreasing.’ AMEN!

Dr. Paul Alexander

17 hr ago

12342

This is sweet for US parents have caught on and are protecting their healthy kids from this fraud and they will see in time, that what they did was save the potent critical ‘innate immune system’ in children. This precious gift kids come with. They have bought time for the innate antibodies in their COVID unvaccinated children to bind to live virus and thus in turn educate and train and instruct the innate immune system, especially the natural killer cells (NK cells) in their role of ensuring the innate immune system of children and young persons can recognize ‘self’ from ‘non-self’. This will ensure these unvaccinated kids do not die of auto immune disease etc. This is a huge victory and all these malfeasants like Fauci and Walensky and Francis Collins and Bourla etc. know this is a fraud and about money and getting kids on the booster treadmill.

Say NO!

Aaron E. Carroll writes:

You would think that vaccination sites would have been swamped with parents rushing to vaccinate their young children against Covid after the Food and Drug Administration authorized the vaccines for the under-5 age group in June. But as of early August, around 5 percent of eligible children under 5 had received the first dose of the vaccine series. Worse, the number of them being immunized has been decreasing.

What does it say, then, that most parents have not vaccinated their children against Covid‌? ‌‌Even if, as the data would suggest, they’ve vaccinated themselves at much higher rates? ‌

I fear that it’s indicative of Americans’ loss of trust in the public health system of the United States. Much of that is because of misinformation and disinformation spread about the safety and efficacy of vaccinations. But some of it is the result of inconsistent and often suboptimal science communication by public health experts.

SOURCE

Vaccine Impact



GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

Vaccine injury

The “Sudden Deaths” in New Jersey are Mounting in 2022…

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:22 PM (20 minutes ago)
to

Wild
https://rumble.com/v1ha7yn-the-sudden-deaths-in-new-jersey-are-mounting-in-2022.html

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“Does It Even Matter If The Fed Hikes 50 Or 75bps? It Won’t Prevent The Multiple Trainwrecks Coming Our Way”

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 10:27 AM

By Elwin de Groot and Bas van Geffen, Macro Strategists at Rabobank

When reading the financial press these days, one could be forgiven for getting the impression that right now it’s “all about the Fed’s next move and what Powell is going to say on Friday”. Our colleague Philip Marey gave his views in yesterday’s Global Daily and with his key message basically being that it is time now that market participants are to be told ‘the truth’. And the truth, unfortunately, is not a happy message: inflation is already so much entrenched now that the Fed cannot afford to take its foot off the brakes, no matter what the economy or the labor market do in the foreseeable future.

Yet in the grander scheme of things, one could also ask: does it even matter whether the Fed adds another 75bp or 50bp? It would neither speed up nor prevent the multiple trainwrecks that seem to be coming our way. Although Joseph Stiglitz, in an interview in Germany, argued that too forceful rate hikes could even exacerbate inflation if higher interest rates slow down the necessary investments to alleviate supply shortages. Is he now in the Erdogan camp? But it is difficult to argue against his observation that rate hikes don’t solve energy and food shortages; a point we have been making from the start of this crisis.

So the awful truth is that it’s real and potentially (very) bad, not matter how you twist or turn things. The current scorching European summer is likely to end up in the history books as one of the driest in centuries. Those who have visited the south of Europe in recent months can probably attest: extremely dry fields, trees shedding their leaves, the closure of nuclear plants due to lack of cooling water, and water-saving measures all around. The impact on harvests could be significant and the impact on electricity prices is already a fact. The French 1m forward baseload power contract briefly hit EUR 700/MWh on Monday, where some EUR 50/MWh was the norm in the five years up to 2021 (an average household in France uses about 5.5MWh per year).

But now China has also joined the Drought Club or, rather, the country is dealing with both drought and floods. Heavy rainfalls in the north of the country have triggered severe flash foods, whereas high temperatures have caused significant water shortages in the south. The latter is not only affecting hydropower output in the region (18% of its energy production in 2020), forcing greater use of coal, but also puts food production at risk. Particularly along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, where around half of the nation’s rice is produced, the situation is said to be perilous. Xinhua news reported that, as of Monday, drought has affected 3.4 million people and 48.48 million mu [3.23 million hectares] of farmland in 10 provincial-level regions in the Yangtze River basin, including Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.”. China’s Cabinet said it will set aside CNY 10bn to support rice production.

However, should the droughts force China to increase food imports, this could put further pressure on global food commodity prices. The sharp decline in the FAOs food price index in July –albeit after even sharper gains since January– was met with some relief last month. But this index has probably risen again in August, underscoring that the risk of global food shortages has not receded. Far from that, actually. And the recent rise in natural gas prices is only aggravating the longer-term risks. Yesterday, CF Industries Holdings Inc., a major fertilizer producer, said that its UK unit intends to temporarily halt ammonia production as it’s “uneconomical” at current gas and carbon prices. This obviously spells more trouble ahead. According to the UN’s FAO nearly 30% of the global population was experiencing modest to severe food insecurity (up from 25% in 2015) and it’s hard to believe that this trend has reversed in the past two years.

As we have noted before, the squeeze on households’ incomes is real. And Western governments are looking at ways to soften the blow. Yesterday, US President Biden has announced plans to forgive up to $10,000 in student loans, which are a burden for many Americans. The amount of federal student debt outstanding amounts to $1.6 trillion, and then there are the loans that were issued by private parties. About one in five Americans has a student loan, although the amounts will be relatively small for most of them (less than $20,000). That said, these borrowers often find it hardest to repay their debt – simply because these smaller amounts are held by former students that moved on to lower paying jobs. So Biden’s policy will certainly help many US households. The Biden administration boasted that 90% will go to those earning under $75,000 per year. Technically, that may be true. However, it will mostly go towards the middle class, while the lowest income quintile benefits much less – simply because this group is less likely to have attended tertiary education.

Meanwhile, there are concerns that this waiver could further boost inflation. After all, it gives these households a little more disposable income. And that burden would also partly fall on the shoulders of lower income households, many of which are already struggling to cope with higher prices, e.g. for electricity. Although the increase in US energy bills pales in comparison to the price hikes faced by Europeans, there are now 20 million households in arrears on their utility bills, which could see the power being shut off (temporarily) for many Americans. Yet, the US government does not seem to be in a hurry to offer any assistance on that front – unlike the quick measures that are taken as soon as prices at the gas station rise significantly.

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

OPEC President hints at possible production cuts

(zerohedge)

Oil Spikes As OPEC President Hints At Possible Production Cuts

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 07:54 AM

For the 3rd day in a row, headlines in the energy complex are reiterating the possibility of an OPEC production cut in the face of the decoupling between (tight) physical crude markets and dropping futures prices.

OPEC’s rotating president told The Wall Street Journal that the Saudi energy minister’s proposal to consider a reduction in light of market volatility was “in line with our views and objectives.”

While the OPEC presidency doesn’t have decision-making power, the holder of the position often voices consensus emerging in the organization.

“We think the return of Iranian barrels would be a qualifying event for a collective strategy shift,” among OPEC members, said Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC Capital Markets. She added that if an OPEC production cut reduced the oil-price benefits from the Iran agreement, that could erode the political gains for the Biden administration from the controversial deal.

Notably, the idea of a production cut appears to be gaining momentum as Azerbaijan, Libya, Algeria, and Congo all supported the idea in order to reduce volatility and add stability to the oil market.

Meanwhile Iran appears to be positioning itself as anti-Russia:

Iran’s state oil producer will try to win back customers in countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey in the event sanctions targeting its energy industry and economy are eased, according to people with knowledge of Iran’s strategy

WTI spiked back into the green on the news…

So all we need now is a competing “Iran Nuke Deal Is Imminent… Again” headline to take us back down… but as the OPEC leader said, that will merely trigger the production cuts – hence the ‘stabilizing’ threat.

Who could have seen this coming?

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.9986 UP  0.0018 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 136.39   DOWN  0.699 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1844 UP   0.0054

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 31.05 POINTS OR 0.97%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 699.64 PTS OR 3.63% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.69%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 699.64 PTS OR  3.63% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.05 PTS  OR 0.97% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.69% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 165.54 OR 0.58%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1764.65

silver:$19.34

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 108.22 DOWN 40  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.39% DOWN 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.224% UP 0    AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.49%// DOWN 7   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.55  DOWN 13   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.323% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA0.9968 UP  .0007   or 7 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.69 DOWN 0.408  OR YEN UP 41  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1818  UP.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0031 OR 31 BASIS pts  to 1.2938

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.8492 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8547

TURKISH LIRA:  18.17  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.224

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.076% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.265 DOWN 5  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 108.49 DOWN 13 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 11.13 PTS OR  0.15%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 37.84 POINTS OR 0.29%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 7.28 PTS OR 0.11% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 19.90 OR 0.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 24.701 PTS OR  0.11%

WTI Oil price 93.97  12: EST

Brent Oil:  101.02 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.03  DOWN 0  AND 14/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.323

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9971 UP .0003     OR  3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1833 UP  .0042  or  42 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.52 DOWN 0.581//YEN UP 58 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2933 DOWN 0.0037  (CDN dollar, UP 37 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 93.20

Brent OIL:  100.16

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.033 DOWN 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.247  DOWN 7  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.17

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.14  down 0 AND    26 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 322.55 PTS OR 0.98 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 225.72 PTS OR 1.75%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.87 DOWN 0.95 PTS (5.60)%

GLD: $163.25 UP $0.50 OR 0.31%

SLV/ $17.63 UP 10 CENTS OR 0.57%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Stocks Bid Despite Rate-Hawknado Ahead Of J-Hole Pow-Wow

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Another wave of hawkish FedSpeak today (George, Bostic, Harker, and Bullard in increasingly ominous policy terms) prompted further tightening in STIRs…

Source: Bloomberg

…but stocks (once again) just shrugged it off as hope remains that Powell punts tomorrow…

Source: Bloomberg

If there is still anyone left believing that Powell will pivot tomorrow, they are in cloud cuckoo-land – he would have to completely reject the words of at least six Fed presidents in the last two days who have expressed nothing but ‘higher for longer’ rates as a possibility.

Will Powell go ‘full Leeroy Jenkins’ on the market?

The market is pricing a peak terminal rate for this cycle at around 3.79% in March 2023 before rate-cuts begin (but all the FedSpeak today signaled that was unlikely – more aggressive hikes then pause was the narrative, not a hike and cut flip-flop)…

Source: Bloomberg

Why are they desperate? Simple – financial conditions are now ‘easier’ than when The Fed actually started ‘tightening’…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow lagged on the day (thanks to weakness in Salesforce) but had a positive performance while Nasdaq and Small Caps led the pre-Powell surge. In the last hour, the “we know something you don’t know” panic-buying accelerated into the close. Futures were bid aggressively at both the EU cash open and the US cash open…

“Most Shorted” stocks surged once again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Very strong 7Y auction (after ugly auctions earlier in the week) helped extend gains in bond land today… but the short-end (2Y) dramatically underperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield dropped back near 3.00% today…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which flattened the yield curve (2s30s) dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday’s slide, but was bid into and across the European open (like it has been for the last few days)

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around today to close practically unchanged around $21500…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices slipped lower today…

European NatGas continued its explosion higher, now trading at a stunning $533 per barrel of oil equivalent…

Source: Bloomberg

And some more context, Germans are paying the equivalent of $1200/barrel of oil for their electricity demands (1Y ahead)…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the discount for Russian (Urals) crude below Brent is tightening…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed modest gains on the day with overnight gains being dumped as US opened…

Finally, Bloomberg reports that a measure of aggregate profit margins improved in the period to 15.5% — the most since 1950 — from 14% in the first three months of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

This won’t last… unless government intervention has finally killed capitalism.

END

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

END

ii) USA DATA//

Initial Jobless Claims Resume Uptrend, Massive Divergence From Payrolls

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 08:38 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time dropped to 243k last week, down very modestly from a revised lower 245k the prior week (and better than the 252k expected). The 4-week average resumed its uptrend…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims data improved marginally from 1.434mm to 1.415mm.

So, what the hell is going on with the payrolls data?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we detailed previously, while the chart above shows a serious decoupling between two ‘labor market’ indicators, PwC recently indicated an even greater discrepancy between the hope-filled pre-Midterms non-farm payrolls data and the reality among America’s corporations and workers.

end

Q2 GDP is revised higher but still remains in recession territory at -.6%

(zerohedge)

Q2 GDP Revised Higher To -0.6%, As Price Index Soars To Highest Since March 1981

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 08:54 AM

While few will care about the second revision to Q2 GDP which as of today ended nearly three months ago and all attention has shifted to the current quarter which concludes in a month, it was notable that for Q2, the BEA revised the GDP number which came in well above what it reported in its preliminary, first estimate and also what Wall Street expected, as the economy shrank “only” 0.6% in Q2, an improvement to the -0.9% reported initially and better than the -0.7% consensus expectation. Still, the data confirms that for all intents and purposes, the US remains in a technical recession.

The second-quarter decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in inventory investment, housing investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Exports and consumer spending increased. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Some more details:

  • The decrease in inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail trade (led by “other” general merchandise stores) and wholesale trade.  
  • The decrease in housing investment primarily reflected a decrease in brokers’ commissions.  
  • The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending
  • The decrease in state and local government spending was led by a decrease in investment in structures that was partly offset by an increase in compensation of employees of state and local government. 
  • The increase in imports reflected an increase in services (led by travel). 
  • The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (led by industrial supplies and materials) and services (led by travel). 
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services (led by food services and accommodations as well as “other” services) that was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by food and beverages)

Compared to the initial GDP print, the revisions were as follows:

  • Consumer Spending was boosted from 0.70% to 0.99% of the bottom line GDP print
  • Fixed Investment on the other hand was revised modestly lower, from -0.72% to -0.84%
  • The closely watched change in private inventories number ended up being revised higher, from -2.01% to -1.83%, which means that the inventory destocking likely has more to go in Q3, and is in fact bad news for the current quarter.
  • Net exports (exports less imports) was unchanged at 1.43%, the same as the initial estimate.
  • Finally, government consumption subtracted -0.32% from the final GDP print, essentially unchanged from the -0.33% reported one month ago.

And visually:

Separately, the report found that corporate profits had fallen 2.2% in prior quarter, while on a Y/Y basis, profits rose 8.1% in 2Q after rising 12.6% prior quarter.  Financial industry profits declined 4.8% Q/q in 2Q after falling 9.3% prior quarter; Federal Reserve bank profits down 8.4% in 2Q after rising 11.1% prior quarter; Nonfinancial sector profits rose 9.4% Q/q in 2Q after falling 0.3% prior quarter.

And while none of the above could move the needle, what is notable is that inflation came in hotter than expected again, with Gross domestic purchases prices, rising 8.4% (revised) in the second quarter after increasing 8.0 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 6.8 percent (revised) after increasing 6.9 percent.  Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 7.1 percent (revised) in the second quarter, the same rate as the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 4.4 percent (revised) after increasing 5.2 percent.

As for the reason why yields spiked and futures slumped after the GDP print, look no further than the deflator: the GDP Price Index, came in red hot at 8.9%, above the 8.7% expected which was also the number reported in the first revision.

Printing at a fresh 41 year high, it means Powell will see even more pressure to come off as hawkish.

iii)USA economic commentaries

Not good:  4.9 million illegal aliens  (along with drugs) have crossed the uSA border during the past 18 months that Biden has been in office

(Li/EpochTimes)

4.9 Million Illegal Aliens Crossed US Border In 18 Months Since Biden Took Office: Report

WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly 5 million illegal immigrants have crossed U.S. borders in the 18 months since President Joe Biden took office, according to a new report.Illegal immigrants walk from Mexico into the United States on their way to await processing by the U.S. Border Patrol in Yuma, Ariz., on May 23, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

A total of 4.9 million illegal aliens, including some 900,000 “gotaways” who evaded apprehension and have since disappeared into American communities, have entered the country by the end of July, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) said in a statement on Aug. 16.

“Roughly the equivalent of the entire population of Ireland has illegally entered the United States in the 18 months President Biden has been in office, with many being released into American communities,” FAIR President Dan Stein said in the press release.

He blamed Biden for putting the unprecedented surge down to external factors, not the administration’s own “sabotage” of immigration laws. After rolling back key Trump-era policies, Biden presided over the largest number of apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border in a calendar year in history, recording almost 1.9 million arrests last year.

“The endless flow of illegal aliens and the incursion of lethal narcotics pouring across our border will not end until this administration demonstrates a willingness to enforce our laws,” Stein said.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

New Surge

Two million illegal aliens have entered the country in the first 10 months of this financial year, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). In June, more than 207,000 illegal immigrants were apprehended attempting to cross the U.S.–Mexico border, making this the highest number of June apprehensions in history.

Although July saw a slim decline in CBP encounters at the southwest border of nearly 200,000, it turned out to be the 17th straight month with more than 150,000 encounters, representing a 325 percent increase over the average number of July apprehensions under the Trump administration, the statement reads.

Among the more than 213,000 illegal aliens deported from the border in July, only 37 percent of the arrests led to expulsions under Title 42—a 7 percent drop from last month. Border agents processed the majority of the rest under Title 8, which oftentimes lets illegal aliens be released into the U.S. interior while their cases sit in backlogged immigration courts.

Read more here…

END

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

A very important read:  Charles Hugh Smith/

This is where we are heading

Charles Hugh Smith….

What’s Worse Than Inflation? Depression + Inflation

THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 – 08:21 AM

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If “markets” controlled by the rich are allowed to distribute essentials, the result will be civil disorder and the overthrow of regimes.

What’s worse than inflation? Depression + Inflation. And that’s where we’re heading. As I explained yesterday in The Fed Can’t Stop Supply-Side Inflation, central banks are trying to reduce inflation by crushing demand. This works in eras of abundance, but not in eras of scarcity in which supply constraints drive inflation.

If the FEW essentials–food, energy and fresh water–are supply-constrained, monetary tightening won’t reduce inflation. Jacking up interest rates to crush demand won’t increase supplies, it only exacerbates the destabilizing inequality of who gets their fill (the rich) and who doesn’t (everyone else).

Food shortages caused by drought and other extremes of weather don’t stop humans from getting hungry, and neither do central bank-created depressions.

And Depression is what we’ll get if central banks continue pursuing their fatal misdiagnosis of the cause and fix of inflation. Central banks can trigger a Depression by jacking up rates and tightening financial conditions, but this won’t put an end to humanity’s needs for the essentials soaring in price due to scarcity.

Central banks crushing demand won’t reduce wages, either, as workers need a living wage or there’s no point in even showing up.

After 45 years of losing ground, the worm has finally turned.

The highly unpopular (and misunderstood) solution to supply-constrained inflation is rationing so everyone gets enough to get by regardless of their wealth or income. Without rationing, the rich and powerful engorge themselves as usual, soaking up scarce supplies with their wealth. Those without wealth do without or are pushed into insolvency, generating civil instability that will eventually threaten the integrity of the entire system the wealthy control with such self-satisfaction.

Rather than cut off the water to the poor who are unable to pay soaring utility bills, it’s the wasteful rich who should be cut off and fined a couple hundred thousand dollars for squandering resources.

If central banks think causing a Depression will reduce supply-constrained inflation, they will be proven tragically wrong. Depletion and scarcity are not temporary and the central bank “solution”–impoverishing the already poor and laying waste to the economy to reduce demand–won’t actually fix supply constraints caused by forces beyond the reach of financial manipulations.

If “markets” controlled by the rich are allowed to distribute essentials, the result will be civil disorder and the overthrow of regimes by those left bereft while the wealthy squander resources because they have the financial means and political power to do so.

What’s worse than inflation? Depression + Inflation. What’s worse than Depression + Inflation? Depression + Inflation + civil disorder triggered by mass impoverishment and wealth inequality.

*  *  *

end

SWAMP STORIES

This is a must read.  Conrad Black always gets it right:

The Biden regime has its man (Trump) and now all that they need is a crime 

(Conrad BLACK/American Mind)

Conrad Black: The Regime Has Its Man – All It Needs Now Is The Crime

WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Conrad Black via The American Mind (emphasis ours),

A week after the invasion and nine-hour occupation of former President Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, it is becoming clearer every day that there was no plausible legal reason for it.

It may have been, as has been widely alleged, a fishing expedition to try to find something useful for Nancy Pelosi’s January 6 kangaroo court inquiry into the “insurrection,” but if so, this was a desperation play, and since no such objective was specified in the warrant nor presumably mentioned in the affidavit supporting the warrant, such a fishing expedition is not legal, though on recent precedent, legal relevance is the last criterion this regime would take into account.

These are, if not the identical authors, certainly kindred spirits in the law enforcement bureaucracy of those who inflicted upon the much-wronged and disserved people of the United States the Trump-Russia collusion fraud, the whitewash of Hillary Clinton’s destruction of 33,000 subpoenaed emails and reckless and illegal use of a home server for confidential official information, the two spurious impeachments, and the scandalous mishandling of the Biden family’s financial shenanigans, and many other triumphs of malice and incompetence.

The burden of the deluge of semi-official leaks pipelined through the docile Trump-hating media last week gradually back-pedaled from the lofty insinuations of those elusive “high crimes and misdemeanors” equivalent to treason, to an archival dispute of the kind that all departing presidents have. The climb-down spiked briefly with the absurdity of misuse of nuclear military information in contravention of the Espionage Act, and wound up the week as a toothless, general-purpose, normal legal precaution. The normal Democrat practice in this kind of perversion of the prosecutorial apparatus is to rely upon the docile and rabidly partisan national political media to transmit a Niagara of dishonest official leaks. The New York Times, usually reliable as an administration source, has revealed that President Biden pressured the attorney general to prosecute Trump. The best he could do, apparently, was this burlesque of due process, with a feeble and belated acknowledgment that he had approved the invasion and that, of course, the fact of an investigation in progress prevented him from saying anything about it.

In this case, the spigots of leaks shut down after a few days, and in an agile act of improvisation, the anti-Trump media has taken to accusing the former president and his followers of inciting disrespect for the justice system and betraying a sense of unease at having Trump’s papers and conduct closely examined, thus inciting the inference that he must have been guilty of something. This is the familiar reasoning of people so possessed by hate that they wish to charge somebody with something, and in failing to find any useful evidence, they cite the absence of the evidence as illustrative of the fiendish cunning of the targeted person, in hiding or destroying the evidence.

This was the basis of the late Christopher Hitchens’ accusation against Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger of being responsible for the death of Chilean president Salvador Allende in 1973. And it was the essence of journeyman historian Michael Beschloss’ comments that while it was true that what was being done to President Trump was unprecedented, that was only because Trump was so obviously more criminally dishonest in his behavior than any previous American president, and so there was no need to elaborate upon it.

The fact that there is no evidence against Trump of having done anything illegal, despite years of obsessive and frequently illegal official persecution of him to unearth such evidence, merely confirms the satanic depths of his wickedness. Next we will have historian-for-hire John Meacham give us another chorus about Joe Biden’s resemblance to Franklin D. Roosevelt (who in four terms as he led the country out of the Great Depression and to the brink of victory in World War II never had one day of a negative public approval rating).     

The Wall Street Journal, which has been quite professional and even-handed in its treatment of Donald Trump as a politician, warned on the weekend that it would damage his credibility if he objected to the publication of the warrant for the intrusion at his house. They need not have worried: Trump was happy to have it made public and the shoe was now on the other foot, as the Justice Department is reduced to lame excuses for not releasing the affidavit on the basis of which the judge-shopped, professedly Trump-hating, magistrate to whom the affidavit was submitted, authorized the intrusion.

Legally, it need now hardly be pointed out that the execution of the search warrant at Trump’s home was an outrage. Justice should have proceeded by subpoena, and cannot explain why it waited for 19 months since Trump left office, during which Trump claims he cooperated entirely with it, to take this step. Even if there was some dispute on the matter of the subpoena, one hardly needs to launch a major raid to handle the disposition of such a non-urgent matter. Since a president can declassify anything he wants, the regime’s media apologists are reduced to claiming he must have declassified some things incorrectly.

This is all of a piece with six years of perversion of the highest legal and intelligence offices to persecute a political opponent. The seizure of the former president’s three passports is the crowning imbecility: that the most famous person in the world is a flight-risk is a hard sell-even to the most pathological Trump-haters, and the passports are being returned, (with extensive executive and lawyer-client privileged material it is implicitly acknowledged was also seized improperly).  

The only conceivable explanation for this action is not to be found in the farrago of nonsense in the deluge of official leaks; it is that the Democratic strategists believe that their only hope for retaining control of the U.S. Senate at the midterms is to shift the conversation from the fiasco of the Biden administration and focus it on the chaos that regularly erupts around Trump, even though that chaos is usually generated by his enemies and not by him. The former president seems to have recognized the intention behind this impotent pseudo-legal nonsense and has been relatively restrained in his response and has called for the de-escalation of overheated spirits.

The Democrats, who until recently subscribed to the wishful fantasy that Trump’s support was melting away, have effectively confirmed him as commander of the Republicans. They may also have finally generated some independent voter empathy for him, and enabled him to appear in a more generous light than he has had at any time in the last six years. The legal farce is de-escalating, and it will be a real challenge even for the totalitarian legions of media Trump-haters to maintain a straight face and unwavering inflection as they try to provide a legal justification for this preposterous flim-flam job.   

Conrad Black is a Canadian-born British peer, and former publisher of The London Daily Telegraph, The Spectator, The Chicago Sun-Times, The Jerusalem Post, and Canada’s National Post, of which he was founder. An acclaimed author and biographer, his latest book is Donald J. Trump: A President Like No Other (2018).

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 25, 2022 Issue 6830Independent View of the News
 US July Durable Goods Orders tumbled from 2.2% (revised from 2%) in June to unchanged.  +0.8% was consensus.  Ex-Transport Orders were unchanged at 0.3; 0.2% was expected.  Nondefense, ex-Air Orders increased 0.4% (Previous 0.9%); 0.3% was expected.  Shipments grew 0.7%; 0.5% was expected.
 
US July Pending Home Sales declined 1.0% m/m and 22.5% y/y.  -2.6% m/m and -21.4% y/y were exp.
 
US new vehicle prices to hit record high (+11.5% y/y) despite rising interest rates https://t.co/dw432WIkCd
 
US rents hit a record high for the 17th month in a row (+12.3% y/y, BLS has July ‘rents’ +6.3% y/y)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/us-rents-hit-a-record-high-for-the-17th-month-in-a-row/ar-AA112vOf
 
‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’ Looms with 1 in 6 Late on US Energy Bills
Surging electricity prices spur worst-ever crisis in late utility payments… propelled by the soaring cost of natural gas…
    California’s PG&E Corp. has seen a more than 40% jump since February 2020 in the number of residential customers behind on payments… The average price consumers pay for electricity surged 15% in July from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month increase since 2006…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/can-t-pay-utility-bills-20-million-us-homes-behind-on-payments-facing-shutoffs
 
Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler says don’t worry unduly about inflation expectationsFew signs households pushing for big pay rises, Thaler saysRates are being raised to keep price expectations in check   https://t.co/gSDsJsuAiG 
Stiglitz Says Rate Hikes That Are Too Steep May Worsen InflationHigher rates make solving supply snarls harder, he saysCompanies, landlords may be passing on rising interest costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/stiglitz-says-rate-hikes-that-are-too-steep-may-worsen-inflation
 
The Nobel Committee is hopelessly misguided/political!  From the guys that blew up LTCM to Gore to Obama to Krugman to Stiglitz to Thaler, you couldn’t make this many woeful selections on purpose!
 
Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth… in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.4 percent on August 24, down from 1.6 percent on August 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -3.5 percent to -4.7 percent… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
 
California to finalize plan to ban sale of new gas cars by 2035
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/california-hold-final-hearing-banning-sale-new-gas-cars-2035
 
Biden cancels $10,000 in federal student loan debt for most borrowers… Biden will also cancel up to $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grant…The relief will be limited to Americans earning under $125,000 per year, or $250,000 for married couples or heads of households…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/biden-expected-to-cancel-10000-in-federal-student-loan-debt-for-most-borrowers.html
 
Court challenges to Biden debt forgiveness edict loom.  If The Big Guy’s debt forgiveness is NOT unconstitutional, can presidents modify any loans?  This is a divisive ploy and a cynical bribe.
 
@ClayTravis: Joe Biden has no constitutional authority to unilaterally strike down student loan debt.  Congress must act to allow this to occur. The Supreme Court will strike down this move. The Biden administration knows this. Which is why this is simply a craven political move for midterms
    The president is acting unilaterally outside his own powers, & he knows it, for entirely political reasons. Media should do a better job explaining this. But they won’t… media are Dem cheerleaders.
 
Nancy Pelosi Praises Biden for ‘Bold Action’ She Said He Didn’t Have the Authority to Take
In April, Pelosi answered a press conference question about student loan debt by saying “people think that the President of the United States has the power for debt forgiveness — he does not. He can postpone, he can delay, but he does not have that power,” Pelosi explained of the nonexistent power — “that has to be an act of Congress” — she praised Biden for using this week…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2022/08/24/nancy-pelosi-praises-biden-for-bold-action-she-said-he-didnt-have-the-authorit-n2612190
 
Top universities sitting on over $200B in endowments while taxpayers foot bill for Biden student debt handout – Biden’s plan to give out at least $10,000 to many individuals with student loan debt, meanwhile, has an estimated price tag of about $330 billion
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/top-universities-sitting-200b-endowments-while-taxpayers-foot-bill-biden-student-debt-handout
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Biden owes Americans an explanation on why a truck driver who didn’t go to college is now responsible for the student loans of a rich lawyer… Transferring rich lawyers’ debt to poor Americans should put to rest the narrative that Scranton Joe cares about the working class.
 
Vulnerable House Democrat rebukes Biden’s $300 billion student loan handout plan: ‘No way to make policy’  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vulnerable-house-democrat-rebukes-biden-300-billion-student-loan-forgiveness-plan
 
Student loan handout: Even liberal CNN, MSNBC, NBC point out critical flaws in Biden’s plan
Networks noted the plan enraged both Democrats and Republicans (Progressives want bigger handout)
https://www.foxnews.com/media/student-loan-handout-liberal-cnn-msnbc-nbc-point-out-critical-flaws-bidens-plan
 
@ctlyle1: The 2003 law @POTUS is using to justify student loan forgiveness was explicitly designed for members of the military who were volunteering to sacrifice their lives after 9/11. 
https://twitter.com/ctlyle1/status/1562529504261984263/photo/1
 
The Big Guy jetted to DC to make the debt forgiveness announcement and then jetted back to his vacation home.  Do you still think climate change is a dire crisis?  Jill has Covid again!  How can this be?
 
A soft $45B US 5-year note auction (3.23% vs 3.22% WI) sent the 10-year note yield to a two-month high of 3.105%.  5-year results: 20.6% primary dealer, 61.2% indirect (foreign), and 18.2% direct bidders.
 
US Treasury: During the July – September 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $444 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion.[3] The borrowing estimate is $262 billion higher than announced in May 2022, primarily due to changes to projections of fiscal activity and the estimated impact of Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($120 billion)… https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0902
 
ESUs traded mostly in negative territory from the Asian open until 10:10 ET.  Conditioned US traders bought stuff on and after the NYSE open.  The early US rally ended within 15 minutes.  After a moderate retreat over 15 minutes or so, someone juiced ESUs and stocks to game the European close.
 
The rally progressed after the European close and peaked at 11:54 ET.  ESUs then declined until they got near unchanged for the day at 13:30 ET.  The usual suspects then bought stuff until 15:38 ET.  Then, traders tried to liquidate.  Alas, there are few organic buyers in the market; ESUs sank into the close.
 
Yesterday’s King Report: The window for a TRADING rally ends on tomorrow’s close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Two equity rally legs during US trading but trading was listless
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined again
Energy commodities rallied
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is recession here?  If not, is it on the way?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4139.10
Previous session High/Low4156.56; 4119.97
 
@ClayTravis: Dr. Fauci claimed yesterday he never advocated for lockdowns or shutting down anything. Except he’s on tape advocating for both. Fauci is a complete and total lying fraud:
https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1562477469885554690
 
Trump White House exerted pressure on FDA for Covid-19 emergency use authorizations, House report finds – to sway voters before the 2020 election  https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/trump-white-house-exerted-pressure-on-fda-for-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-house-report-finds-00053428
 
TDS has induced many US institutions to engage in self-destructive behavior.  It is a huge benefit for the USA.  Now, in their insatiable zest to ‘get Trump’, Teams Obama & Clinton have set the Democratic Party, and most of the US Establishment, on a path of self-immolation ‘to get Trump’.  This might foster the ‘best case’ outcome for the USA.  The worst case is if totalitarianism is firmly established in the USA.
 
Russia eyes Iran for sanctions-busting oil sales – Russia plans to use Iran as a backdoor to circumvent international sanctions over Ukraine if Tehran’s nuclear accord with world powers comes back into force… https://t.co/01lrTFcPgs
 
Pelosi Capital Management does it again – sells NVDA before disappointing Q3 guidance appeared.
 
Nvidia earnings fall short, Q3 forecast misses by $1 billionRevenue: $6.7 billion versus $6.7 billion expected; Adj. EPS: $0.51 versus $0.50 expectedNvidia also announced Q3 revenue projections that fell short of expectations, saying it will bring in $5.9 billion in the quarter. Wall Street was looking for $6.9 billion…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-q2-earnings-2023-194714803.html
 
Lockstep Markets Primed for All-or-Nothing Sweepstakes on Powell
    Cross-asset correlation almost doubles as focus turns to macro
    ‘Risky assets face a reality check,’ Barclays strategists warn
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/lockstep-markets-primed-for-all-or-nothing-sweepstakes-on-powell
 
Today – It was easy to forecast that traders would foment a rally on Wednesday because there was a window until today’s close to buy stuff before Powell speaks on Friday morning.  Outside of the two rally legs, action was listless as saner angels and wiser guys wait for Powell’s speech.
 
Barring a surprise in Q2 GDP, a similar pattern to Wednesday should develop.  The last leg of the Treasury’s Refunding, 10-year notes, is today.  When a Treasury Refunding goes poorly in the first two auctions, be alert for a rally after the final auction, no matter the results, as dealers mark up their inventories to unload on ‘Muppets’.
 
Goldman Sachs ‘muppet’ trader says unsophisticated clients targeted   Mon 22 Oct 2012
Greg Smith, the former Goldman Sachs employee who infamously quit Wall Street via a New York Times article in March, says the investment bank routinely took advantage of charities and pension funds in order to increase its profits… https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/oct/22/goldman-sachs-muppets-greg-smith-clients
 
ESUs are +1.50 and USUs are -2/32 at 20:05 ET in very quiet trading.  Today could be a listless session.
 
Expected economic data: Q2 GDP -0.7%, Consumption 1.5%, GDP Price Index 8.7%, Core PCE 4.4%; Initial Jobless Claims 252k, Continuing Claims 1.441m; KC Fed Mfg Activity 9; KC Fed Jackson Hole Summit begins at 20:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3982; 100-day MA: 4082; 150-day MA: 4192; 200-day MA: 4313
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,944; 100-day MA: 32,556; 150-day MA: 33,150; 200-day MA: 33,810
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4259.15 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4164.23 triggers a buy signal
 
Biden Didn’t Step Out of His Beach House for Three Days, and The Media Didn’t Care…
“All week/weekend long, the White House reporters camped out in Rehoboth Beach, Del., waited for Biden to leave for a nice bike ride or walk on the beach… But after decamping from Wilmington for his beach house in Rehoboth on Saturday evening, the president didn’t do much of anything,” Politico’s writers observed. “As of this newsletter’s publication, he hasn’t been out in public for three days.”…
https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-didnt-step-out-of-his-beach-house-for-three-days-and-the-media-didnt-care-pretty-weird-huh
 
FBI whistleblower claims bureau leaders ordered staff NOT to investigate Hunter Biden laptop and told them ‘the FBI is not going to change the outcome of the election again’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11142735/New-FBI-whistleblower-comes-forward-claiming-bureau-told-staff-not-look-laptop-hard-drive.html
 
How Barack Obama set the legal path for the FBI’s Trump raid – 2009 executive order stripped prior presidents’ standing to maintain executive privilege. Court hearing Friday in Navarro case could challenge that… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/how-barack-obama-set-legal-path-fbis-trump-raid
 
CBS: Biden administration moves to formalize DACA and shield it from legal challenges
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-daca-biden-federal-regulation-dreamers/
 
@FirebrandPAC: Tucker: “Turns out, the symptoms of societal decay are universal. The men become weak, the leaders get decadent, law enforcement gets politicized, the currency gets devalued. And then, things begin to come apart. Pretty soon the society can’t perform its most basic function.”
https://twitter.com/FirebrandPAC/status/1562234703926771712
 
Chicago Public Schools’ Radical Agenda Gets Uglier: ‘Equity’ Video Promotes Looting & Burning
Here is a school system where three quarters of students can’t demonstrate basic competency on reading and math on state tests and the SAT. Yet the district would have us believe… there is no winning at all or that “winning” comes from looting, arson, and property destruction…The video, added to the CPS website in late June, features black author and filmmaker Kimberly Jones. In the video, she is speaking days after George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis by police…
    “If the social contract is broken why the f*** do I give a s*** about burning the f****** Football Hall of Fame, and burning the f******Target…f*** your Target, f***your Hall of Fame. As far as I’m concerned they can burn this b**** to the ground. And it still wouldn’t be enough.”…
    Anger is destructive and encourages hopelessness and poor decisions. Chicago lives with the wreckage of poor personal decisions – often resulting in violent crime – every day. Yet CPS endorses the anger and discouragement and hopelessness evident in this video. “Yes. You should loot stores. You should steal. Light things on fire. You’ve got no other options, really.” That’s the message…
https://wirepoints.org/the-chicago-public-schools-radical-agenda-gets-uglier-equity-video-promotes-looting-and-burning/
 
@rawsalerts yesterday: Chicago high school on lockdown after shooting outside school.  Multiple authorities are responding to a shooting outside Carl Schurz High School where 3 juveniles, 1 adult were shot in front of the high school, a shelter in place was issued
 
@CWBChicago: As an aside, the Chicago Police Department classified knocking a man off a CTA platform and onto the tracks below as a “simple battery” instead of an aggravated battery. If applied more widely, classification decisions like that would help reduce the CTA’s violent crime stats.
https://twitter.com/Jenna_Barnes/status/1562552142720036864
 
Fake economic stats, fake criminal stats, fake warrants, fake news – It is “1984” in the USA!
“We’re losing our Republic to election integrity, or the lack thereof. We’re losing it to censorship.  We’re losing it because we have these national security agencies that are treating their political opposition as if they were criminals.” — @JackPosobiec – Human Events Daily
 
@robbystarbuck: Nashville’s School Board is insane. They spent their last meeting discussing equity for all aspects of school, advancing gender theory, renaming words that offend them and cackling like Kamala over the removal of a school board member who voted against forced child masking.
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1562550287273177089
 
To avoid today’s wokeness, parents are enrolling their kids in Catholic school
Faith-based education is helping parents avoid woke agenda
https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/avoid-wokeness-parents-enroll-kids-catholic-school
 
Aspiring GOP Leader Sen. John Thune Backs Cartel Bill Bailout for Discredited Fake News Media
The JCPA would create a cartel of media companies in the U.S., with the power to collectively negotiate with Big Tech companies for special favor… including suppression of their competitors, artificial amplification in algorithms and search results, and billions of dollars in licensing fees…
    The GOP leadership in the House of Representatives has condemned the bill, with GOP leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy calling it the “antithesis of conservatism.”…
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2022/08/24/aspiring-gop-leader-sen-john-thune-backs-cartel-bill-bailout-for-discredited-fake-news-media/
 
Trump Is Right. Mitch McConnell and Elaine Chao Spent Decades Getting ‘Rich on China’
For decades, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his wife Elaine Chao have maintained a glaring conflict of interest, conducting extensive government business despite the Chao family’s deep ties to China through a maritime shipping company For years, the McConnell and Chao families have maintained a symbiotic relationship that grants opportunities to the Chaos’ shipping company, Foremost Group, which largely operates in and on behalf of communist China…
     Not only are a majority of Foremost’s ships built in state-owned shipyards, but some are even financed by the Chinese Communist Party…
    In 2021, months after she resigned from the Trump administration, the Office of Inspector General for the Department of Transportation released a report confirming that Chao “used her official position and taxpayer resources for the benefit of herself and her family.”  Evidence of wrongdoing in the OIG report was communicated in a criminal referral to the Department of Justice U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and the DOJ Public Integrity Section, but none of the agencies decided to open an investigation…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/24/trump-is-right-mitch-mcconnell-and-elaine-chao-spent-decades-getting-rich-on-china/
 
@realDonaldTrump: The Democrats have Mitch McConnell and his lovely wife, Elaine “Coco” Chao, over a barrel. He and she will never be prosecuted, as per the last paragraphs of this story, as long as he continues to give the Radical Left the Trillions and Trillions of Dollars that they constantly DEMAND. He was afraid to use the “Debt Ceiling Card” in order to stop the most expensive waste of money in our Country’s history, to be spent on the Green New Deal, which will only cause one thing, a Depression…
    Mitch McConnell is not an opposition leader; he is a pawn for Democrats to get whatever they want.
He is afraid of them… A new Republican leader in the Senate should be picked immediately.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/108880263911466699
 
Trump has escalated his public feud with McConnell to Defcon 2 by alleging that Dems and the establishment are blackmailing McConnell over his and his wife’s dubious CCP dealings.
 
@RichardGrenell: The counterculture is now conservative.  Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Business, our Universities, Hollywood and all of the media are Democrats.
 
Climate experts believe the next ice age is on its way” – 1978
https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1562117567577309184

 

Greg Hunter interviewing 

end

See you tomorrow

Harvey

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