SEPT 6/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $9.40 TO $1702.00//SILVER CLOSED UP 1 CENT TO $18.00//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $19.90 AT $851.90//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $61.70 AT $1968.75//COVID UPDATES RE ZERO COVID MANDATE IN CHINA//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURY/ELIZ. TRUSS IS THE NEW BRITISH PRIME MINISTER//CHAOS RUNS SUPREME IN THE UK AND EUROPE DUE TO HIGH ENERGY COSTS//TRUSS REVAILS PLAN TO PROVIDE CITIZENS WITH MONEY TO OFFSET RISE IN PRICES//ALSO EUROPE HAS THE SAME TYPE OF PLAN//ARCELOR IN GERMANY TO CLOSE TWO PLANTS DUE TO HIGH GAS PRICES//RUSSIA SHUTS OFF COMPLETELY GAZPROM NO 1 AND WILL ONLY REOPEN IF SANCTIONS ARE LIFTED///MEGADROUGHT CONTINUES SURROUNDING THE COLORADO RIVER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

eave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1702.00 DOWN $9.40 

SILVER: $18.00 UP 1 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1702.20

SILVER: $18.01

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,902 DOWN 83

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,985 DOWN 31

Platinum price closing UP $19.90 AT $851.90

Palladium price; closing DOWN $61.70  at $19.68

END

DONATE

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,709.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/02/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/07/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 11
132 C SG AMERICAS 12
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 16
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 7 71
690 C ABN AMRO 2 3
709 C BARCLAYS 83
737 C ADVANTAGE 26 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 2
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 125 125
MONTH TO DATE: 1,935

JPMorgan stopped:   306/519

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

125 NOTICES FOR 12500 OZ //0.3880 TONNES

total notices so far: 18935 contracts for 193,500 oz (6.0186 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 180 NOTICES FILED FOR 900,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  5882 :  for 29,410,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.01

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 466.589 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A FAIR SIZED 509  CONTRACTS TO 138,102.   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.13 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.13) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1687 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; WE HAD MINOR  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME//STRONG  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 815,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//STRONG SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +18

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 3 days, total 3731  contracts:  18.655 million oz  OR 6.218 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1243 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 18.655  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 18.655 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 509 WITH OUR  $0.13 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 289 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// STRONG SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 815,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 798 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.99 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 180  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  900,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 802 CONTRACTS  TO 463,442 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–169   CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $13.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND SOME/STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG JUMP OF 6800 OZ //NEW STANDING 11.203 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF   $13.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1228  OI CONTRACTS 3.819 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1863  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 463,442

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1228 CONTRACTS  WITH 635 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1863 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1228 CONTRACTS OR 3.819 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1863) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (802): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1061 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 6800 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

8498 CONTRACTS OR 849,800 OZ OR 26.43  TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2832 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 26.43 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  26.43/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.75% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 26.43 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 509 CONTRACT OI TO 138,102 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 289 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 289  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 289 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 491  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 289 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 798   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.99 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.13

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 43.59 PTS OR 1.36%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.97 OR 0.12%    /The Nikkei closed UP 6.90 OR .03%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9604//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9722//    /Oil DOWN TO 86.52  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,88    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 802 CONTRACTS TO 463,442 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE OF $13.00  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1863 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1863 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1863 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1863 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1061  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1863 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 802  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $13.00.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (11.203),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  11.203 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $13.00) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERED SOME OF  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 3.300 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (11.203 TONNES)

WE HAD -169  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1061 CONTRACTS OR 106100  OZ OR 3.300 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 206,303///  poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  188,145/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 6

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz48,049.169  oz


Brinks (1 kilobar)
JPMorgan  




Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz oz
No of oz served (contracts) today125   notice(s)
12,500  OZ
0.3880 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1667 contracts 
166,700 oz
5.185 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month1935 notices
193,500 OZ
6.0196 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 32.15 oz (one kilobar)

ii) Out of JPmorgan:  48,017.018 oz

total:  48,049.169 oz   

total in tonnes: 1.494 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

jpmorgan:  23,561.621 oz dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 1792 contracts having LOST451 contracts .

We had 519 notices filed on Friday so we gained 68 contracts or an additional 6800 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October GAINED 977 contracts UP to 42,208 

November GAINED 0 contracts to stand at 6

December LOST 1793 contracts UP to 378,338.

We had 125 notice(s) filed today for 12,500 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  7 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 125 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 71 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1935) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 1792 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 125 x 100 oz per contract equals 360,200 OZ  OR 11.203 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1935) x 100 oz+   (1792)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (125} x 100 oz} which equals 360,200 oz standing OR 11.203 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  11.203 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,347,209.896 oz   7.300 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,720,350.028 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,661,163.518  OZ (424.91 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,059,176.510 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,313,954. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 351.911 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 6

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,073,332.450 oz
CNT
DELAWARE
JPMORGAN





 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 179,754.134 oz
Delaware


 
No of oz served today (contracts)180CONTRACT(S)
900,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)307 contracts 
(1,535,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)5882 contracts
 29,410,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account
i) Into Delaware:  179,754.134 oz

total deposit:  179,754.134   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 168.702 million oz/325.156million =51.89% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:3

i) Out of CNT:  474,045.390 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  973.620 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan  598,313.440 oz

total: 1,073,332.450    oz

 adjustments: 4/dealer to customer

Manfra: 552,270.245  oz

Brinks: 1,336,881.040 oz

JPMorgan: 4,980.630 oz

Loomis  28m812.007 oz

and one customer to dealer: 

delaware  119,217.831 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 47.464 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 325.156 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 487 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 62 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

101 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 163 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

815,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 668 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED ONE CONTRACT TO STAND AT 3

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 39 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 125,571.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 180 for  900,000 oz

Comex volumes:63,749// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65,687 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5882 x 5,000 oz = 29,410,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(487) and the number of notices served upon today 180  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 5,882 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (487)  – number of notices served upon today (180) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 30,945,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 47.464 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 30.945 MILLION OZ represents 65.400% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:71,745// est. volume today//    fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 66,045 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 973.08 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 466.587 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: We Can’t Postpone Inflation’s Day Of Reckoning Much Longer

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 03:35 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Jerome Powell and other central bankers at the Federal Reserve are still talking tough about their inflation fight even as the economy continues to deteriorate. Peter Schiff says we’re nearing an inflection point, but the markets don’t get it yet. As he explained in his podcast, the Fed’s monetary tightening is causing a recession, but ultimately, the central bank will surrender to inflation. There is a day of reckoning ahead and we can’t avoid it much longer.

Stock market indexes went into the holiday weekend with another big selloff. We still haven’t reached the June lows, but the markets appear to be heading in that direction. Peter said he thinks we are on our way to “a historic bear market” both in severity and longevity.

Not only are we starting from an unprecedented level of excess valuation, but it’s also happening at a time of unprecedented macroeconomic imbalances. The economy has never been weaker while stocks have been more overpriced.”

Peter said we are at an inflection point. In the past, every time the stock market got into trouble or the economy got shaky, the Federal Reserve came to the rescue with more cheap money.

Well, it can’t do that anymore. At least it’s claiming it’s not going to do that. And if it did do that, it would have dire ramifications. So, for now, it’s not doing it. And the markets still don’t understand what this means for the economy and what it portends for stock market prices.”

The stock market has been surfing a wave of liquidity. With every recession or stock market decline, the Fed floods the markets with liquidity.

Stock prices are floating on that sea of liquidity. The valuations are extreme. But now, the Fed is pulling the plug, draining the markets of that liquidity, at the time when the markets need it the most.”

Earnings are under pressure because we are in the early stages of a recession. As the recession continues, there will be more downward pressure on earnings. And as interest rates rise, the value of those diminished earnings is falling even faster as they are discounted with those higher rates. Meanwhile, rising interest rates themselves hurt earnings because corporations are carrying unprecedented levels of debt. Artificially low interest rates did their job, incentivizing not only corporations, but also individuals and governments, to take on more and more debt.

Because of the Fed, everybody is leveraged to the hilt. The economy has never been this leveraged and never been this dependent on the cheap money that the Federal Reserve is now taking away. So, we’re going to go through the mother of all economic withdrawals as the Fed is weaning us from this monetary heroin.”

As businesses have to pay more to service their debt, that reduces earnings. It also lowers dividends, and it also means less money for stock buyback schemes. That means stock prices will likely continue their downward trend.

Anybody who thinks we’re anywhere near the bottom just doesn’t understand the stock market. And anybody who thinks the Fed is going to win this inflation fight doesn’t understand inflation.”

But a lot of people don’t understand. You still hear people out there talking about a “soft landing.” Peter said we’ve already crashed.

The only thing is we haven’t burst into flames yet.”

There seems to be an ongoing debate about whether the Fed needs to cause a recession to tame inflation. Peter said that’s not what happens. The central bank doesn’t have to set out to cause an economic downturn. The recession is simply a consequence of the inflation fight.

So, it’s not about whether the Fed needs to cause a recession to fight inflation. The reality is the Fed can’t fight inflation without causing a recession.”

In fact, Fed policy led to both excessive debt in the economy and rising prices.

Because it left monetary policy so loose for so long and allowed the economy to get so leveraged, allowed inflation to get this out of control, it’s not about the fact that fighting inflation is going to cause a recession. It’s going to cause a financial crisis. There is no way around that.”

Why don’t more people understand this?

They don’t understand what caused the last financial crisis. They don’t understand that it was the Federal Reserve. And they also don’t understand that the Fed’s policies subsequent to that crisis, which were supposed to alleviate the problems, actually made them worse. The problems have been compounded. But they’ve been kicked down the road. And we are dealing with those problems now, but few people seem to grasp that understanding. Well, they are going to be in for a rude awakening.”

Peter said this is why any comparisons between current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and former chair Paul Volker fall flat. Powell will not succeed in this inflation fight.

Powell will surrender and inflation will win because when push comes to shove, and when we are in a financial crisis, Powell will not continue to fight inflation. He will give up that fight in order to save the economy and the markets from the consequences of that financial crisis. And that’s when inflation will cause an even greater crisis in terms of the US dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, a fate that, so far, the US has managed to avoid. But its ability to postpone that day of reckoning will rapidly come to an end.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the August non-farm payroll data, how gold is bucking the downtrend in stocks, and Biden’s Philadelphia speech.

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Australian annual gold output 317 tonnes – Surbiton

It is always a contentious point as to whether Australia or Russia is indeed the world’s second largest annual gold producer. The figures are extremely close and not helped by the fact that Australia assesses its annual output from June to June, whereas Russia’s is usually assessed on a calendar year basis, Indeed the latest figures from London consultancy, Metals Focus, definitely put Russia in second place behind China with 2021 gold output at around 331 tonnes, while the latest figures from Australian specialist gold consultancy, Surbiton Associates, would appear to confirm this putting Australia’s annual gold production in the latest 12-month period at 317 tonnes. However, Surbiton puts Australia’s June quarter figure at 83 tonnes, which would suggest an annual production rate of 332 tonnes, which if maintained for a full year could put Australia back in second place, particularly if Russian output is affected adversely by the ongoing sanctions programme.

We have always taken Surbiton’s figures for Australian gold output as being extremely accurate, given its on-the- spot analysis and access to the individual Australian mining company figures. “The industry treated about five million tonnes more ore in the latest quarter than in the previous three month period,” said Dr Sandra Close, a Surbiton director in the consultnacy’s latest press release. “Producers seem to have taken the opportunity to end the financial year on a high note, by pushing their treatment plants a little harder and treating higher grade ore.”

“The increase in total June quarter output came about in spite of continuing problems with the shortage of skilled workers and absenteeism resulting from COVID-19 infections.” Dr Close noted however that input costs are rising, leading to higher costs throughout the industry.

“Once again Australian gold producers benefitted from a weaker Australian dollar compared with the US dollar in the June quarter.” she commented – a point we made in a previous article on the gold price often advancing in other key currencies, although apparently falling in U.S. dollar terms.

“Local investors should always take note of the gold price in Australian dollars because producers’ costs are mostly in Australian dollars,” Dr Close said. “In the second quarter of 2022, the US dollar price of gold fell by US$125 per ounce but the Australian dollar gold price actually rose by almost A$42 an ounce due to a US 6 cent movement in the exchange rate.”

For those seeking more detail on Australia’s gold industry, Surbiton Associates has just released its second book on gold titled Australia’s Greatest Gold Boom. This covers developments in the Australian gold mining industry from 2001 to 2021. It is the sequel to the first book, The Great Gold Renaissance which covered the previous 20-years and explained the reasons why Australian gold production rose from less than 20 tonnes of gold in 1981 to more than 314 tonnes by 1998. Together the books cover a wide range of aspects of the industry and the people involved over a 40- year period.

“Australia’s Greatest Gold Boom” has taken over three years to research and write,” Dr Close said. “Australia’s third gold boom started in 1982 and is still continuing. In this period Australia has produced around 9,500 tonnes of gold and had become the world’s second largest gold producer.” However it may well now have been overtaken by Russia in this latter respect if the Metals Focus figures are correct.

Table: Australia’s largest gold producers for the 2021- 2022 financial year

05 Sep 2022

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Jim Rickards warns that central digital currencies are coming fast 

(Jim Rickards)

Jim Rickards: Biden’s most enduring legacy?

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-02 21:19Section: Daily Dispatches

By James G. Rickards
The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Central bank digital currencies are coming fast, and you need to be prepared for them because they’ll mark a major victory in the war against cash — and against your personal privacy.

You’ll see why today.

As the name implies, central bank digital currencies are digital, existing exclusively in electronic form. They’re not physical at all. Central banks would control them.

But it’s important to understand they’re not new currencies. They’re just digital forms of existing currencies. So the central bank digital currency of the European Central Bank will still be the euro. The central bank digital currency of the Fed will be the dollar. The Chinese yuan will be a digital yuan. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://dailyreckoning.com/bidens-most-enduring-legacy/

end

Ambrose has got it right.  Big trouble at the ECB as they just do not know what to do.  Inflation is running rampant in all parts of Europe and then you have

the ECB buying up worthless debt of Italy much to the annoyance of the German Bundesbank

(Ambrose Evans Pritchard)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Revenge of the Bundesbank spells big trouble for Italy

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-02 21:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Friday, September 2, 2022

The European Central Bank can either bail out Italy or save its credibility in Germany. It will struggle to do both.

With inflation running at a 50-year high in Germany, 14% in the Netherlands, and 25% in Estonia, it is politically impossible to keep mopping up Italy’s debt issuance under the guise of monetary policy. The euro’s crash to dollar parity has been the last straw. The Bundesbank has lost patience.

The ECB is in the worst internal disarray since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis. Hawks and doves are contradicting each other daily on fundamental strategy. Markets have no idea how the new ‘anti-spread’ tool (TPI) to protect Italy is supposed to work, or whether it is legal outside an emergency.  “It is a complete shambles. Christine Lagarde has lost control and is not showing any leadership,” said one source close to the Bundesbank.

Mrs Lagarde did not attend the central bankers’ forum in Jackson Hole. The vacuum has been filled by Isabel Schnabel, Germany’s member of the executive council, who has returned to her Bundesbank roots after a fateful dalliance with ultra-loose money. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/02/revenge-bundesbank-spells-serious-trouble-italy/

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

-END-

.

Russia & China’s ‘Financial War’ on the West

Today, Russia and China are offering the Global South, Africa and Asia a release from the Western ‘Rules’.

  • Russia & China’s ‘Financial War’ on the West

In the US National Interest magazine (a conservative-leaning journal), and, in an uncharacteristic outbreak of candour, Ramon Marks has a piece entitled: No Matter Who Wins Ukraine, America Has Already Lost

In it, Marks observes that “regardless of who wins the Ukrainian war, the United States will be the strategic loser. Russia will build closer relations with China and other countries on the Eurasian continent, including India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states. It will turn irrevocably away from European democracies and Washington. Just as President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger played the “China card” to isolate the Soviet Union during the Cold War, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will play their cards in a bid to contain U.S. global leadership”.

Well, apart from the ‘no matter who wins’ nod to the mandatory Western narrative — suggesting this still to be an open question — the gist of the National Interest piece is ‘spot on’, albeit whilst misconstruing the context completely.

Russia and China certainly are engaged in a bid to change the US ‘rules-based order’. Not to substitute one hegemony for another, but rather to create the pressure — short of war — that forces an existential transformation in the Western zeitgeist. A pressure that gives the West little option but to end its expansionist reach into other societies, forcing compliance with its ‘rules’ (otherwise known as neo-colonialism).

Yes, Russia and China are now playing their geo-strategic ‘cards’. And in one sense, they are very familiar ‘cards’. These are the principles of self-determination and respect for sovereignty that emerged from that 1955 Bandung meeting, which came to underpin the Non-Aligned Movement of that time. They reflected the conference sponsors’ then dissatisfaction at Western reluctance to listen, and instead, to impose their singularity of view on Asian states.

So, just as the US played its military-backed dollar dominance to the full in the years following the implosion of the Soviet Union to corral much of the world into its rules-based sphere, today Russia and China are offering the Global South, Africa and Asia a release from the Western ‘Rules’. They are encouraging the ‘Rest-of-World’ to assert its autonomy and independence — à la Bandung.

Russia, in partnership with China, is building these widespread political relationships on the control of global fossil-fuel supplies and much of the world’s food and raw materials. To further increase Russia’s influence over energy sources upon which the Western belligerents depend, Russia is stitching together a gas ‘OPEC’ with Iran and Qatar, and has also made welcoming overtures to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join together in taking greater control of all key energy commodities. 

Further, these big producers are joining with big buyers to wrest precious metal and commodity markets out of the hands of London and America – with a view to ending Western manipulation of commodity prices through derivative paper markets. 

The argument advanced by Russian officials to other states is both hugely appealing and simple: The West has turned its back on fossil fuels and is planning to phase them out entirely — in a decade or so. 
They have chosen this track under intense US pressure — a path which, in the case of Europe, will impose misery on their peoples for years to come. 

However, unpalatable though it be for some, the fact is that world economic growth still requires fossil fuel production. Without more investment and exploration, there is unlikely to be sufficient supply in the medium term to meet likely demand. What is not available anywhere, is a quick means for increasing the physical supply of energy.

Russia’s message to its partners is that you do not have to join with this masochistic ‘sacrifice politics’. You can have oil and natural gas at a discount to what Europe has to pay. The “Golden Billion” have enjoyed the benefits of modernity, and now they want you to forego it all, and to expose your electorates to extreme hardship, too.

Russia is saying simply, ‘It needn’t be like this’. Yes, the climate is a consideration, but fossil fuels are experiencing an acute lack of investment for ideological reasons, rather than running out per se.

The point here is that the original starting point to Bandung was that the West just does not ‘do listening’ – it directs and imposes. Western Green ideology, however, cannot simply be mandated for the Rest of the Word — against its wishes. This argument represents the pathway for Russia and China to switch much of the world to their camp.

Russia – through tightening the energy screw to give its argument bite — is serving a blunt warning to the EU that the Western European political class either can save its’ skin, through reverting to cheap Russian gas, or alternatively, it can stay aligned with Washington on Ukraine. The latter course, however, would mean it having to cast its’ electorates into misery. And to risk its’ leaders facing the ‘unpleasantness’ of an à la lanterne revolt. But the EU cannot do both.

What matters primordially is the nature of European metamorphose. Is it tactical, or a true ‘Damascene conversion’? Will we find, in wake of the Russian energy squeeze, an EU sufficiently chastened to embrace a non-ideological negotiation of the security and civilisational aspirations of others, as well as a grounded exchange on means to protect the planet from further depredation?

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.9604

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9722

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 22.97 PTS OR  0.12%

2. Nikkei closed UP 6.90 OR  0.03%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  109.94/Euro FALLS TO 0.99201

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.235/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 141.998/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.533%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.74%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.17//

3j Gold at $1713.55 silver at: 18.39  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 1/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.36//

3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 141.998DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9825– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9746well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.258  UP 7  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.395 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,22

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures, Global Markets Rise As Europe Unleashes Energy Hyperinflation Bailout Bazooka

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 07:51 AM

Following a flat Monday futures session when the US was closed for Labor Day and European stocks slumped as Russia confirmed it would halt NS1 pipeline flows indefinitely, on Tuesday European stocks and US equity futures rose as governments attempted to blunt the growing energy crisis, injecting tens of billions in fiscal stimulus to offset soaring energy prices and undoing central bank attempts to crush demand with tighter financial conditions. S&P futures rose 0.6% as Wall Street was set to resume trading after the long weekend, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.7%, ignoring – for now – news of more Chinese lockdowns. Meanwhile, as traders eyes the flood of fiscal “energy support”, Treasuries fell across the board, taking the two-year yield to 3.46%, while oil edged down reversing yesterday’s OPEC+ production cut gains on demand risks from fresh Chinese Covid lockdowns. The pound rebounded as traders assessed the agenda of incoming PM Liz Truss. European natgas prices eased with politicians scrambling to find solutions after Moscow switched off its main pipeline to the continent.

In premarket trading, Bed Bath & Beyond shares tumbled as much as 25% after Chief Financial Officer Gustavo Arnal fell to his death Friday from a Manhattan skyscraper. Other meme stocks were also drifting lower, including GameStop, which declined 5%. US-listed Chinese stocks also slumped premarket, with the drop led by Alibaba which tracked moves in Hong Kong-listed shares in the past two sessions, as lockdowns hit more cities amid an increase in Covid cases. Alibaba (BABA US) falls 2%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -1.3%, JD.com (JD US) -1.8%, Baidu (BIDU US) -0.6%Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • FedEx (FDX US) shares decline 1.7% in US premarket trading as Citi downgraded the stock to neutral, noting that it’s concerned about the pace of freight activity heading into year-end.
  • Ciena (CIEN US) shares drop as much as 1.4% in US premarket trading after JPMorgan downgrades the communications equipment company to neutral from overweight on “limited upside” for the stock.
  • Digital World Acquisition (DWAC US) shares slump as much as 33% in US premarket trading, after the blank-check firm that is set to merge with former President Donald Trump’s social media group reportedly failed to get enough shareholder support to extend the deadline to complete the deal.
  • Transocean (RIG US) gains 1.4% in premarket trading as the stock was upgraded to buy from neutral by BTIG, which said in a note that improving day rates in the floater market would help the company recharter rigs at higher levels.
  • CVS Health (CVS US) stock could be in focus as the company agreed to buy Signify Health for $30.50 per share in cash in a transaction valued at ~$8 billion.
  • Watch tanker shares as Jefferies says it remains positive on the outlook for the sector in a note raising PTs across its coverage and upgrading four stocks to buy. Euronav, Frontline (FRO US), Nordic American (NAT US) and Tsakos Energy (TNP US) upgraded to buy from hold, with PTs raised on all.
  • Keep an eye on Rollins (ROL US) stock as it was raised to outperform from sector perform at RBC, with the broker saying the pest-control firm offers a “recession- resilient” model against a tough current backdrop.

Soaring energy costs have added to the complexities for monetary policymakers attempting to manage surging price pressures and the risk of recession. The focus turns next to the ECB, with economists at some of Wall Street’s top banks expecting it to announce a hike of 75 basis points on Thursday.

“The global economy, and in particular the European economy is really faced with a number of very difficult challenges, of which energy is sitting at the heart of everything,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, said on Bloomberg Television. “It does unfortunately mean that Europe despite all the help that governments are trying to provide for families and businesses, it’s simply not going to be enough to stave off a pretty significant downturn.”

And speaking of Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.4%; Germany’s DAX outperformed peers, adding 0.7%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.1% despite a massive a massive energy bailout plan announced by the new PM, Liz Truss, which amount to over €170 billion, and is meant to freeze houshold energy bills as well as rescue small businesses. Retailers, travel and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Delivery Hero shares rally as much as 10% after Morgan Stanley raises the stock to overweight, saying the firm is set for the biggest margin improvement in the food delivery sector into 2023 and the most resilient top-line growth.
  • Consumer stocks Greggs rises as much as +7.6%, Asos +8.5%, J D Wetherspoon +6.8%
  • Volkswagen shares rise as much as 3.2% in Frankfurt after the German company decided to push ahead with its plan to list a minority stake in the Porsche sports-car maker this year.
  • Commerzbank shares rise as much as 5% on Warburg upgrade, with the broker seeing good earnings and revenue growth prospects for the German lender.
  • The Stoxx 600 Energy index falls, lagging the broader benchmark, as weaker gas prices and a stalled rally for crude weigh.
  • Gas-exposed names Equinor drop as much as -6.1% and OMV -3.5%, among the biggest decliners
  • Shell decline as much as -2.6% , BP -2.8%, TotalEnergies -2.2% and Eni -4.1% as Brent slipped following the OPEC+ meeting on Monday, with traders weighing the output cut alongside the impact of new lockdowns in China
  • Remy Cointreau shares drop as much as 3.4% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Richard Withagen cut the recommendation to reduce from hold, citing slowing global spirits-market growth.
  • BT shares fall as much as 2.8% to the lowest level since November 2021 after Berenberg downgraded the UK carrier to hold from buy, saying 1Q results raised “a multitude of questions” about the investment case.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks turned lower as concerns over global monetary tightening and the impact of Europe’s energy crisis kept risk appetite in check. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.4%, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.5%. Energy shares were the biggest advancers after oil rallied overnight, while most other sectors fell.  Stocks in China rebounded after days of losses, while key measures of Hong Kong equities were the biggest laggards in the region. Australian stocks declined after the central bank raised its key rate by 50 basis points. Indonesia’s benchmark narrowly missed a fresh record high. The threat of a global economic slowdown continues to weigh on market sentiment, along with worry over inflation amid climbing commodities prices. The most recent earnings season has done little to quell concerns around the region, with MSCI’s main Asia gauge on track for its fifth-straight quarterly loss and volatility surging. 

“Monetary tightening and accelerating inflation have weighed on investor sentiment and market returns,” Germaine Share, director of manager research of Morningstar wrote in a report. “We have also seen fund managers turn overweight China in the recent months to buy structural growth opportunities at attractive valuations.”

Japanese stocks closed mixed as uncertainty over the global economy countered optimism over the benefits of the weaker yen for exporters.  The Topix fell 0.1% to close at 1,926.58, while the Nikkei was little changed at 27,626.51. Oriental Land Co. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 6.3% as the stock failed to be added to the blue-chip Nikkei 225. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,002 rose and 1,014 fell, while 153 were unchanged. “The markets are assuming that the US and European economies are going to be facing difficult situations,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, a general manager at SBI Securities. “Japanese stocks are in a relatively more favorable situation as the country has been late in restarting its economy, so there is still much room for growth.”

Indian stocks ended marginally lower, after swinging between gains and losses for most of Tuesday’s session, as the US Fed’s tightening bias and concerns about a worsening energy crisis in Europe remained an overarching themes in Asia.   The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.1% to 59,196.99 in Mumbai, erasing gains of as much as 0.5%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped by a similar magnitude. Of the 30 members on the Sensex, 10 rose, while 20 fell. Twelve of 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a measure of power companies.  “Markets are still in a range and rotational buying across sectors is helping the index to hold strong amid mixed global cues,” Ajit Mishra, vice president for research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. “Since all sectors, barring IT, are contributing to the move, the focus should be more on stock selection.” 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased a decline as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. GBP and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and AUD underperform. Yen trades above 142 as Japan’s failed MMT experiment slowly comes to a close. The euro inched up to trade around 0.9950. Leveraged investors were heavily positioned for a lower euro versus the dollar, but they see scope to partially unwind some of that exposure and bet on further pound weakness. Sterling climbed as much as 0.8% to $1.1609 after sliding to the lowest since March 2020 on Monday. The rebound was fueled by a report that incoming UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has drafted plans to fix annual electricity and gas bills for a typical UK household at or below the current level of £1,971 ($2,300). The gilt curve bear steepened. Australia’s sovereign bonds gave back an advance after the central bank raised interest rates by a half- percentage point for a fourth consecutive meeting and signaled further hikes ahead in its drive to rein in inflation. The Reserve Bank took the cash rate to 2.35%, the highest level since 2015, in a widely expected announcement on Tuesday. The Australian dollar slumped. The yen fell to a new 24-year low against the dollar as rising Treasury yields highlighted the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Bonds were little changed.

In rates, TSY 10-year yield rose 6bps to 3.25%, while front-end-led losses flatten 2s10s, 5s30s by 1bp and ~3bp on the day; in 10-year sector bunds outperform by nearly 10bp with 10-year German yields richer by ~3bp on the day. The yield on 10-year bunds is up about 1.4bps to 1.54% while German 2-year yields remain 10bp lower on the day following dovish comments from ECB’s Centeno, Kazaks and Stournaras. UK short-end bonds gain, benefiting from new PM’s plan to freeze energy bills, while long-end gilts declined amid concerns about how the proposal will be funded. Treasury cash market was closed Monday for US Labor Day holiday, and few events are slated for Tuesday. Wednesday has several Fed officials slated to speak. 

In commodities, brent fell 3% to near $93, paring its post-OPEC+ meeting gains, effective assuring that more production cuts are coming. Spot gold is little changed at $1,712/oz.

Bitcoin has been oscillating under the USD 20,000 mark throughout the European session.

Looking to the day ahead now, and in the political sphere the main event will be that Liz Truss succeeds Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get German factory orders for July, the German and UK construction PMI for August, and from the US there’s the final services and composite PMIs for August, and the ISM services index too.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,944.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 414.17
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 153.07
  • MXAPJ little changed at 503.42
  • Nikkei little changed at 27,626.51
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,926.58
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 19,202.73
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,243.45
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 59,320.84
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,826.54
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,410.02
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,714.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 109.68
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.57%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $0.9956

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • German factory orders fell for a sixth month in July. Demand slipped 1.1% from June, driven by a slump in consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical products. That’s worse than the 0.7% drop economists had predicted
  • European households will benefit from at least 376 billion euros ($375 billion) in government aid to stem whopping energy bills this winter, yet there’s a risk the smorgasbord of spending won’t bring enough relief
  • Switzerland and Finland joined Germany in offering credit facilities to energy companies as the worsening supply crunch and surging prices threaten to create financial havoc in Europe
  • China set a stronger-than-expected exchange-rate fixing for a 10th straight day and said it will allow banks to hold less foreign currencies in reserve, its most substantial moves yet to stabilize a weakening yuan
  • China sealed off parts of Guiyang, capital of the mountainous southern Guizhou province, as an increase in virus cases triggered a stringent response
  • Egypt’s government now favors a more flexible currency to support an economy that’s come under pressure from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a top official said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asaia-Pac stocks traded somewhat mixed following the holiday lull stateside and as participants braced for this week’s central bank decisions beginning with an expected 50bps rate increase by the RBA. ASX 200 lacked firm direction with strength in the energy and tech sectors offset by mixed data releases and an unsurprising 50bps rate increase by the RBA. Nikkei 225 was contained following disappointing household spending and softer wage growth data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Hong Kong pressured as losses in tech overshadowed the strength in property names, while the mainland was underpinned after further support pledges by Chinese authorities and with the PBoC cutting its FX RRR which is seen as a measure to stem the recent currency depreciation.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9096 vs exp. 6.9304 (prev. 6.8998)
  • China’s Shanghai reportedly added one high-risk area and two middle-risk areas Tuesday after report of one local asymptomatic COVID case outside of quarantine.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki confirmed fund requests from ministries for FY23 reached JPY 110tln and said they will decide on a fuel subsidy extension based on prices and other factors.
  • Japan is poised to shorted its COVID isolation time to seven days, Nikkei reported.
  • Japan Arrests Kadokawa Executives in Olympic Bribery Probe
  • MUFG to Sell $600 Million of Marelli Debt to Deutsche Bank
  • PBOC Seen Easing Monetary Policy Despite Yuan Slump
  • Evergrande to Exit Shengjing Bank in $1.1 Billion Forced Sale
  • Nomura India’s Head of Debt Shantanu Sahai Is Said to Leave

European bourses kicked off Tuesday’s trade in the green following a mixed APAC session, which saw no lead from Wall Street amid the US Labor Day holiday. Sentiment this morning was somewhat choppy and bourses trade off highs. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer and now portraying a mildly anti-defensive/pro-cyclical tilt, with Healthcare, Utilities, Telecoms, and Food & Beverages towards the bottom of the bunch. Stateside, US equity futures remain firmer across the board with the NQ narrowly outpacing the ES, YM, and RTY.

Top European News

  • Europe’s Lehman Warning on Energy Prompts Flurry of Cash Help
  • Retail Rally on Truss Could Be Short-Lived as ‘Storm Is Brewing’
  • UK Utilities Up on Truss Plans to Cap Electricity, Gas Bills
  • Handelsbanken Recruits From Citi, Penser, Dagens Industri
  • European Gas Drops as Governments Move to Fix Energy Crisis

FX

  • The Dollar and index lost upward momentum in low-key US holiday trade on Monday, but found underlying bids to keep the latter propped around 109.50
  • EUR sees some respite and consolidation on either side of 0.9950 against the USD, whilst several ECB headlines were released in the blackout period, albeit from a monthly publication.
  • JPY declined further on yield differentials, with USD/JPY rising above 141.00 and closer to 142.00.
  • Yuan came under renewed pressure irrespective of a firmer than forecast onshore midpoint fix, with China’s COVID situation continuing to be a headwind.
  • Russia’s Sberbank said they are beginning to lend the Chinese Yuan, seeing large demand for the currency, according to Reuters.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds are off recovery highs, but remain firm within 145.75-144.74 parameters for the Dec contract
  • Gilts have pulled back below parity after rebounding in sympathy to 106.79.
  • 10yr T-note remains depressed towards the bottom of a 116-00/27+ range awaiting the return of US cash markets from the long Labor Day weekend

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures have declined below the levels seen at the reopening of electronic trade, but divergence is seen in terms of intraday changes between the contracts as the former saw no settlement on account of the US Labor Day holiday.
  • Spot gold hovers around recent levels just above USD 1,700/oz – gold sees key support at 1699.1 and 1678.4, whilst resistance levels include 1,729 and 1,745.
  • Base metals are mostly firmer with 3M LME copper posting mild gains above USD 7,500/oz but off best levels.
  • France’s Aluminium Dunkerque is to cut production by one-fifth amid power costs, according to sources cited by Reuters

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Centeno said monetary policy must be patient, ECB may achieve inflation goal with slow normalisation via Eurofi Magazine.
  • ECB’s Kazaks said broad of protracted recession could slow rate hikes’ ECB will have above the neutral rate if needed via Eurofi Magazine
  • ECB’s Scicluna said determining when to use Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) is a major challenge, via Eurofi Magazine.
  • ECB’s Stournaras sees energy costs moderating and bottle easing; EZ inflation is close to its peak, inflation will start steady deceleration via Eurofi Magazine.
  • BoE’s Mann said a fast and forceful approach to tightening, potentially followed by a hold or reversal is better than a gradualist approach, while she added that a 75bps rate hike by the BoE is an important question and that they must ensure inflation expectations do not drift further from the target.
  • RBA hiked rates by 50bps to 2.35%, as expected. RBA reiterated that the board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to the target and it expects to increase rates further in the months ahead but is not on a preset path. Furthermore, it stated that the size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market, while it noted that the Australian economy is continuing to grow solidly and national income is being boosted by a record level of the terms of trade.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Aug. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 44.2, prior 44.1
  • 09:45: Aug. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 45.0, prior 45.0
  • 10:00: Aug. ISM Services Index, est. 55.4, prior 56.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US markets might have been closed for the Labor Day holiday, but there was plenty of action in Europe as markets finally reacted to the closure of the Nord Stream gas pipeline on Friday evening. Unsurprisingly it wasn’t a happy one and European assets slumped across the board, with the Euro itself falling beneath $0.99 for the first time since 2002 as we went to press yesterday, whilst the STOXX 600 managed to claw back its initial losses to “only” close -0.62% lower. Those countries most exposed to Russia’s gas were particularly affected, with the DAX falling -2.22% on the day. In the meantime, the prospect that the latest shock would force the ECB into even more aggressive rate hikes saw sovereign bonds yields move higher across the continent.

Of course, the one asset class these losses didn’t apply to were energy itself, and European natural gas futures surged by +14.56% on the day, albeit down from +35% up just after 9am London time. That still leaves them at €246 per megawatt-hour, which is still someway beneath their closing peak at €339 a week and a half ago, but is nevertheless almost five times the level they were trading at a year ago. German power prices for next year also rebounded +12.10% (after falling -48.35% last week), which came as Bloomberg reported people familiar with the matter saying that Germany was now unlikely to meet their target to hit 95% gas storage by November following the recent news on Nord Stream.

In terms of the next policy steps, EU energy ministers are set to meet on Friday, and EU Commission President von der Leyen tweeted that the Commission was “preparing proposals to help vulnerable households and businesses to cope with high energy prices”. She said the aim was to reduce electricity demand, as well as “Enable support to electricity producers facing liquidity challenges linked to volatility”. Let’s see what they come up with, but we also heard from French President Macron, who said he was in favour of an EU-wide windfall tax on energy profits.

Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil prices (+2.92%) moved higher for a second day after the OPEC+ group announced that they would cut production by 100k barrels per day next month. That reverses the increase from September that was one factor helping to lower oil prices, and won’t be welcome news for policymakers as Europe grapples with its own energy issues. In particular, it’ll be interesting to see how this week’s ECB forecasts are affected by the latest energy shock, and how long they expect it to take before inflation returns back to target. In early Asian trade, Brent futures (-0.74%) have reversed a bit of yesterday’s gains.

Speaking of the ECB, the latest shock from the Nord Stream headlines led markets to price in a further +6bps of rate hikes over the rest of 2022, which brings the total amount expected to +174.9bps. That takes the expected rate implied by year-end to its highest level yet, and means that markets are pricing the equivalent of a 75bps move this week, and then two further 50bps moves in October and December, so a pace unlike anything we’ve been used to seeing over recent years. And in turn, with investors expecting more aggressive rate hikes and faster inflation, sovereign bonds also sold off significantly, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps), OATs (+4.6bps) and BTPs (+10.8bps) all moving higher on the day.

Here in the UK, we got confirmation that Foreign Secretary Liz Truss would become the next Prime Minister today, after she defeated former Chancellor Rishi Sunak in the Conservative leadership election. Truss’ victory was somewhat narrower than recent polls had implied, with a 57%-43% win among party members, and it was also the smallest margin of victory for a new leader with Conservative members since the current system was brought in over 20 years ago. UK assets were unaffected by the news, since it had been widely expected in advance, but they’ve significantly underperformed over the last month as the contest has proceeded, with gilts down -8.2% over August (vs. -5.1% for Euro Sovereigns and -2.6% for Treasuries). Furthermore, since Prime Minister Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, sterling has been the worst performer among the G10 currencies, having fallen -4.21% against the US Dollar. Our FX strategist Shreyas Gopal even put out a report yesterday assessing the risks of a UK balance of payments crisis (link here).

In terms of what happens now, Truss will be invited to become PM by the Queen after Johnson resigns today. After that, she’s expected to deliver a speech from 10 Downing Street, and start putting together her new cabinet. The key post of Chancellor of the Exchequer (the UK’s finance minister) is widely expected to go to current Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who wrote in an FT op-ed on Sunday evening that the Truss government would “take immediate action” on the cost of living, and that there would “need to be some fiscal loosening to help people through the winter”. There were also some lines to reassure markets, saying that they would “work to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio over time”, and they “remain fully committed to the independence of the Bank of England”. Overnight all the newspapers are reporting that Truss is close to sanctioning the freezing of energy bills for the next 18 months which could cost an eye watering £130bn. For context the entire covid spending has been estimated at somewhere between £300-400bn.

Asian equity markets are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s announcement by Chinese officials that they will speed up stimulus efforts in the third quarter to boost the economy as evidence points to a further loss of momentum for an economy marred by pandemic related losses and a property slump. The RRR cut yesterday is also helping. As I type, Chinese stocks are leading gains across the region with the Shanghai Composite (+0.96%) and CSI (+0.54%) both moving higher while the Kospi (+0.10%) is also up. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.02%) is recovering from its earlier losses whilst the Hang Seng (-0.33%) is sliding after its opening gains this morning.

S&P 500 (+0.50%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.63%) futures are edging higher after the holiday. Meanwhile, 2 and 10yr US Treasuries are +6.8bps and +4bps higher respectively, following the global move yesterday.

In monetary policy news, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its official cash rate (OCR) to the highest level since 2015, increasing it by 50 bps to 2.35%, its fifth hike in a row to curb soaring inflation that is pushing up prices in the nation. In a statement, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe indicated that the central bank would continue to adjust rates as inflation continues to run above its 2%-3% target range. He added that prices are expected to increase further over the months ahead before peaking later this year. Our economists think the move and comments leans slightly more hawkish which is reflected by Aussie yields rising as I type.

In terms of data releases yesterday, we got the final services and composite PMIs for August from Europe, where there were generally downward revisions relative to the flash readings. In the Euro Area, the composite PMI was revised down to 48.9 (vs. flash 49.2), and in the UK, it was revised down to a contractionary 49.6 (vs. flash 50.9), which is the first time in 18 months that the UK composite PMI has been in contractionary territory. Otherwise, Euro Area retail sales grew by +0.3% in July (vs. +0.4% expected).

To the day ahead now, and in the political sphere the main event will be that Liz Truss succeeds Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get German factory orders for July, the German and UK construction PMI for August, and from the US there’s the final services and composite PMIs for August, and the ISM services index too.

.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

US Market Open: Firm trade across stocks, DXY trades north of 109.50; US returns from its long weekend – Newsquawk US Market Open

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TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 06:35 AM

  • European bourses kicked off Tuesday’s trade in the green following a mixed APAC session; US equity futures trade higher
  • DXY resides north of 109.50, EUR/USD consolidates, JPY further declined on yield differentials; Yuan came under renewed pressure
  • Bunds are off recovery highs but remain firm, Gilts have pulled back, 10yr T-note remains depressed awaiting the return of US cash markets
  • WTI and Brent futures have declined below the levels seen at the reopening of electronic trade; spot gold is flat and base metals are mostly firmer 
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Services PMI

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

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US Labor Day Recap

  • OPEC+ agreed on a 100k BPD cut in October quotas, taking quotas back to August levels. OPEC+ will be on standby and can call for a meeting at any time to further make changes to policy, Energy Intelligence reported. The August decision to increase production by 100k was only intended for the month of September, and not beyond that. OPEC+ decision was ‘symbolic’ sends the message that the group will intervene whenever necessary to bring stability to the market, according to a Gulf source.
  • Liz Truss won the contest to become the next UK Prime Minister, as expected; she said she will deliver tax cuts, and economic growth and will deal with issues regarding long-term energy supply.
  • PBoC announced it is to cut Forex RRR by 200bps for financial institutions to 6% from 8%.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • IAEA said Ukraine informed it that a backup power line between Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and a nearby power station was deliberately disconnected to extinguish a fire but the line was not damaged and the nuclear plant continues to receive the electricity it needs for safety from its sole operating reactor. IAEA said that it will issue a report about nuclear safety, security and safeguards situation in Ukraine on Tuesday.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes IAEA findings on the Zaporizhzhia plant will be objective and said new Russian shelling of the plant shows Moscow doesn’t care about IAEA opinion, while he added the new power cut from the station to grid means for a second time that the plant was a step away from radiation catastrophe, according to Reuters.
  • Russia is reportedly buying artillery from North Korea as global sanctions have hampered the Russian military’s supply lines, according to US intelligence cited by NYT.
  • US President Biden responded ‘no’ when asked if Russia should be designated a state sponsor of terrorism, according to Reuters.

IRAN

  • Iranian government spokesman says “we have not left the negotiating table to reactivate the nuclear agreement previously and we have no intention of doing so”, via Al Jazeera.

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB’s Centeno said monetary policy must be patient, ECB may achieve inflation goal with slow normalisation via Eurofi Magazine.
  • ECB’s Kazaks said broad of protracted recession could slow rate hikes’ ECB will have above the neutral rate if needed via Eurofi Magazine
  • ECB’s Scicluna said determining when to use Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) is a major challenge, via Eurofi Magazine.
  • ECB’s Stournaras sees energy costs moderating and bottle easing; EZ inflation is close to its peak, inflation will start steady deceleration via Eurofi Magazine.
  • BoE’s Mann said a fast and forceful approach to tightening, potentially followed by a hold or reversal is better than a gradualist approach, while she added that a 75bps rate hike by the BoE is an important question and that they must ensure inflation expectations do not drift further from the target.
  • RBA hiked rates by 50bps to 2.35%, as expected. RBA reiterated that the board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to the target and it expects to increase rates further in the months ahead but is not on a preset path. Furthermore, it stated that the size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market, while it noted that the Australian economy is continuing to grow solidly and national income is being boosted by a record level of the terms of trade.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses kicked off Tuesday’s trade in the green following a mixed APAC session, which saw no lead from Wall Street amid the US Labor Day holiday. Sentiment this morning was somewhat choppy and bourses trade off highs.
  • Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer and now portraying a mildly anti-defensive/pro-cyclical tilt, with Healthcare, Utilities, Telecoms, and Food & Beverages towards the bottom of the bunch.
  • Stateside, US equity futures remain firmer across the board with the NQ narrowly outpacing the ES, YM, and RTY.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The Dollar and index lost upward momentum in low-key US holiday trade on Monday, but found underlying bids to keep the latter propped around 109.50
  • EUR sees some respite and consolidation on either side of 0.9950 against the USD, whilst several ECB headlines were released in the blackout period, albeit from a monthly publication.
  • JPY declined further on yield differentials, with USD/JPY rising above 141.00 and closer to 142.00.
  • Yuan came under renewed pressure irrespective of a firmer than forecast onshore midpoint fix, with China’s COVID situation continuing to be a headwind.
  • Russia’s Sberbank said they are beginning to lend the Chinese Yuan, seeing large demand for the currency, according to Reuters.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9900 (792M), 0.9995-1.0000 (1.08BN)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6800 (722M), 0.6875 (1.06BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds are off recovery highs, but remain firm within 145.75-144.74 parameters for the Dec contract
  • Gilts have pulled back below parity after rebounding in sympathy to 106.79.
  • 10yr T-note remains depressed towards the bottom of a 116-00/27+ range awaiting the return of US cash markets from the long Labor Day weekend
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent futures have declined below the levels seen at the reopening of electronic trade, but divergence is seen in terms of intraday changes between the contracts as the former saw no settlement on account of the US Labor Day holiday.
  • Spot gold hovers around recent levels just above USD 1,700/oz – gold sees key support at 1699.1 and 1678.4, whilst resistance levels include 1,729 and 1,745.
  • Base metals are mostly firmer with 3M LME copper posting mild gains above USD 7,500/oz but off best levels.
  • France’s Aluminium Dunkerque is to cut production by one-fifth amid power costs, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin has been oscillating under the USD 20,000 mark throughout the European session.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Incoming UK PM Truss is considering freezing energy bills until the next election (expected 2024), according to The Telegraph. It was later reported that Truss is lining up a GBP 130bln plan to freeze energy bills, according to Bloomberg. Sky News understands that cost of UK PM Truss energy plan reportedly under GBP 100bln, potentially between GBP 60-70bln; plan not yet signed off.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • California ISO said forecasted loads are currently very high with Tuesday showing peak demand at a record 51,145 megawatts and it is projecting supply deficiencies of 400 – 3,400 megawatts between 17:00-21:00 local time on Tuesday, according to Reuters.
  • Biden admin has released plans for USD 50bln investment in chips, NYT reports; The Department of Commerce issued guidelines for companies angling to receive federal funding aimed at bolstering the domestic semiconductor industry.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the holiday lull stateside and as participants braced for this week’s central bank decisions beginning with an expected 50bps rate increase by the RBA.
  • ASX 200 lacked firm direction with strength in the energy and tech sectors offset by mixed data releases and an unsurprising 50bps rate increase by the RBA.
  • Nikkei 225 was contained following disappointing household spending and softer wage growth data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Hong Kong pressured as losses in tech overshadowed the strength in property names, while the mainland was underpinned after further support pledges by Chinese authorities and with the PBoC cutting its FX RRR which is seen as a measure to stem the recent currency depreciation.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9096 vs exp. 6.9304 (prev. 6.8998)
  • China’s Shanghai reportedly added one high-risk area and two middle-risk areas Tuesday after report of one local asymptomatic COVID case outside of quarantine.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki confirmed fund requests from ministries for FY23 reached JPY 110tln and said they will decide on a fuel subsidy extension based on prices and other factors.
  • Japan is poised to shorted its COVID isolation time to seven days, Nikkei reported.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q2) 18.3B vs. Exp. 20.8B (Prev. 7.5B)
  • Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q2) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -1.7%)
  • Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jul) -1.4% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 1.5%)
  • Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jul) 3.4% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 3.5%)
  • Japanese Total Cash Earnings YY (Jul) 1.8% (Prev. 2.2%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 43.59 PTS OR 1.36%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.97 OR 0.12%    /The Nikkei closed UP 6.90 OR .03%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9604//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9722//    /Oil DOWN TO 86.52  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,88    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/Taiwan

China warns of counter  measures after Biden approves  $1.1 billion arms sales to Taiwan.

(zerohedge)

China Warns Of ‘Counter-Measures’ After Biden Approves $1.1bn Arms Sales To Taiwan

SUNDAY, SEP 04, 2022 – 09:00 PM

China is “firmly opposed” to the Biden administration’s approval of more than $1.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, and says to expect “counter-measures” in response.

Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said on Saturday that the sales “severely jeopardize China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” and has called on Washington to “immediately revoke” them.

Full statement (via Twitter):

#Taiwan is an inalienable part of the #Chinese territory. The United States interferes in #China’s internal affairs and undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests by selling arms to the Taiwan region. It runs counter to international law and basic principles in international relations, and violates the one-China principle and provisions of the three China-US joint communiques, especially the August 17 Communique.

It sends wrong signals to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, and severely jeopardizes China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. China is firmly opposed to this.China urges the US side to honor its commitment, earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques,stop arms sales to and military interactions with Taiwan, and immediately revoke relevant arms sales to Taiwan, lest it should cause more damages to China-US relations and peace and stability across the #TaiwanStrait.

China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation.

Paging John Cena…

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have intensified since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last month, which China had warned against – and responded to by ordering military drills around the island nation after she had left.

On Saturday, Taiwan said it “highly welcomes” the arms, and thanked the Biden administration for “continuing to implement its security commitments to Taiwan.”

“In response to China’s recent continuous military provocations and unilateral changes in the status quo and creating crises, Taiwan’s determination to defend itself is extremely firm,” Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, adding “This batch of arms sales includes a large number of various types of missiles that are needed to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense, which fully demonstrates that the great importance the US government attaches to Taiwan’s defense needs, assisting our country to obtain the equipment needed for defense in a timely manner and to enhance our national defense capabilities.”

On Thursday, Taiwan’s military shot down a drone near one of its island outposts near the Chinese coast, which happened just one day after Taiwan was able to repel drones hovering over three of the islands it occupies near the Chinese port city of Xiamen.

end

CHINA

China cuts RRR to prop up its faltering currency

On shore yuan closed at 6.9350 to the dollar

(zerohedge)

China Slashes FX Deposit Requirement To Prop Up Yuan… But Only Delays The Inevitable

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 01:55 PM

With the yuan in freefall, on Monday morning China announced it will cut the reserve requirement ratio on FX deposits by 2% from 8% to 6%, effective September 15th, in a move aimed to stem its currency’s fall. This announcement came after more than 3% depreciation of the USDCNY since mid-August on the back of a stronger USD. This was China’s second FX RRR cut this year – on 25 April, PBOC cut the RRR on FX deposits by 1% from 9% to 8% after CNY depreciated by almost 3% against the USD in one week.

According to Goldman, this cut should help increase FX liquidity onshore, easing FX appreciation (i.e., CNY depreciation) pressures as a result. And while the actual liquidity impact from this cut looks modest by Goldman’s estimates – onshore FX deposits stood at $674BN as of July 2022, so a 2% cut implies $13BN liquidity release – this cut serves as a strong policy signal that the PBOC is uncomfortable with the rapid depreciation of the currency especially ahead of the 20th Party Congress in October; sure enough the USDCNH appreciated slightly immediately after this announcement.

Indeed, as Goldman’s Maggie Wei writes, the countercyclical factor (CCF) in the daily fixing also implies strengthening bias by the PBOC in recent days.

The bank found a similar pattern ahead of the previous 19th National Party Congress in October 2017, when policymakers leaned against CNY depreciation through more negative CCF ahead of the Congress, though policy signals were less obvious going into the Congress in 2017.

Looking forward, Goldman expects USD strength to continue in the near term, and local Covid outbreaks and property weakness to continue to drag on activity growth in China. As such, the bank expects USDCNY to depreciate to 7.0 over a 3-month horizon. After the 20th Party Congress, Wei adds that “policymakers might also have higher tolerance for CNY weakness” –  during a press conference this afternoon (September 5th), PBOC deputy governor Liu Guoqiang stated the exchange rate has been more flexible and acting as the automatic stabilizer of both the macroeconomy and the global balance of payments. He added that the exchange rate should demonstrate two-way fluctuations, and not necessarily stick to any fixed number. Goldman agrees, and thinks the PBOC might have tolerance for further CNY depreciation against the USD, especially as the broad USD continues to strengthen, though they might want to avoid continued and too fast one-way depreciation if possible.

Bloomberg’s Simon White agrees and writes that “the forces causing the yuan to decline are structural, and there is a mounting likelihood that China may eventually drop the fixed-exchange rate regime altogether.”

As White adds, Beijing’s FX RRR cut “is unlikely to be enough to countervail the structural problems in China putting pressure on the nominally-closed capital account. China’s response to the economic impact of lockdowns has been to aim stimulus at the predominantly export-facing SOE sector. The result has been a surge of almost $0.5 trillion in China’s trade surplus since 2020.”

Indeed, a look at the underlying drivers of the surplus gets to the heart of China’s main problem: the surplus grew not just due to a surge in exports, but a stagnation in imports. Stimulus in China comes at a cost to the household sector, a net importer. In a sign of the poor sentiment and pessimism in the household sector — driven by financial repression, lockdowns and collapses in property prices — new CNY loan growth for households has fallen to at least 13-year lows.

The bottom line, according to the Bloomberg commentator, is that China’s growth model is broken, as the loss in demand from the household sector is greater than any gain from the export sector, leading to lower growth overall, and thus greater pressure on the capital account. This is enough to push the yuan lower, but China also faces a mounting risk from its heavy debt load.  China has had the largest rise in private debt levels since 2010, and its debt-service ratio is through the danger level of 20%.

And while high debt when growth is strong and rising is manageable, it becomes much less so when growth is falling.

There are several levers China can pull to alleviate the growth impact from increased capital flight. One of these is allowing the yuan to weaken. But if the pain becomes too much, White believes that China may choose to abandon its fixed-rate regime altogether, which would have many profound (and dire for the status quo) implications, including for EM monetary policy and global supply chains.

end

CHINA

China’s zero COVID policy is nuts as the virus will never leave as it constantly mutates

Lockdowns in major cities continue

(zerohedge)

Zero-COVID In China: Lockdowns Of Major Cities Continue

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 11:00 PM

After the controversial, two-months long coronavirus lockdown of Shanghai, China has once again placed a city of more than 20 million people under house arrest.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, a coronavirus lockdown in Chengdu in Central China that had started on Thursday was prolonged Monday.

Mass tests are being carried out after the city saw 71 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday. While officials said the restrictions would continue until at least Wednesday, residents are uneasy due to similarities to the Shanghai lockdown, which was also announced in a piecemeal fashion. In April and May, almost 25 million people had been confined to their homes in Shanghai, with many suffering from inadequate food supply, lack of medical attention and psychological distress.

Infographic: Coronavirus in China: Lockdowns of Major Cities Continue | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Southern tech hub Shenzhen, a weekend lockdown was lifted while restrictions in some parts of the city continue. The announcement had led to panic buying Friday in the city that had been under a full lockdown for a week in March already and now fears a second confinement could happen. Shenzhen saw 87 new virus cases Sunday. In March, it was the biggest city China had locked down to-date after a surge in coronavirus cases not seen since the first wave of infections in early 2020 emerged there. The Southern tech hub and special economic zone is only about one hour away from Hong Kong, which also saw a record-breaking Covid outbreak around that time.

According to Our World in Data, China on Sunday recorded more than 3,000 new coronavirus cases. The highest-ever case count in the country occurred on April 14 of this year at around 29,500, almost double the 2020 high of 15,000 cases (February 13).

After the major lockdowns of Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province ended in late March and early April of 2020, China had successfully followed a zero-Covid strategy for most of 2020 and 2021. Ever since the more contagious Omicron variant emerged, however, it has challenged China’s approach of zero tolerance towards the disease.

end

This will hurt China economically: major earthquake in Sichuan province.

(zerohedge)

Deadly Earthquake Hits China’s Southwestern Sichuan Province

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 08:00 PM

A powerful earthquake rocked a mountainous region of China’s southwestern Sichuan province on Monday. At least 46 people are dead, in the latest problems mounting for the province hit by historic drought and Covid lockdowns

The 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Luding county in western Sichuan, about 120 miles west of the provincial capital of Chengdu, reported China Earthquake Administration. 

Videos posted on social media showed damaged building structures and landslides.

Various types of infrastructure, such as roads and power lines, also appear to be damaged. 

Tremors were felt in Chengdu, a megacity with 21 million people currently under Covid lockdown. Besides lockdowns, the metro area has already faced power rationings due to drought and heatwaves this summer. 

A question we have: When an earthquake strikes, can those under mandatory Covid lockdown exit their homes or condos to avoid danger?

Sichuan is located on a major fault and is considered one of the country’s most highly active quake areas. In 2008, Chengdu was hit by a devastating 8.2 magnitude quake, leaving more than 69,000 dead

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

EU.//GERMANY/ENERGY CRISIS/STEEL

The rise in energy prices are forcing Germany’s top steelmaker, Arcelor to close plants

(zerohedge)

“Exorbitant Rise In Energy Prices” Forces Europe’s Top Steelmaker To Close Plants

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Even though European power and natural gas prices have subsided this week, Germany, the largest economy in the bloc, still faces historically high energy costs that have forced cuts in industrial output. 

The latest example is the world’s largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, which released a statement Friday about shutting down two plants and idling one. 

Europe’s top steelmaker said two plants in Germany (one in Bremen and the other in Hamburg) would be partially closed at the end of September. A plant in Asturias, Spain, will also be idled. 

ArcelorMittal blamed the coming smelter shutdowns on “the exorbitant rise in energy prices,” which is devastatingly impacting the company’s “competitiveness of steel production.” The decision to reduce metal output was also based on “weak market demand and a negative economic outlook” as energy hyperinflation risks sending Europe into a deep recession.  

“As an energy-intensive industry, we are extremely affected. With gas and electricity prices increasing tenfold within just a few months, we are no longer competitive in a market that is 25% supplied by imports,” explained Reiner Blaschek, CEO of ArcelorMittal Germany. 

Blaschek asked lawmakers to address the historic energy crisis and get prices “under control immediately.” Elevated prices this summer have resulted in a series of smelter closures from other metal-producing companies because high energy costs made production uneconomical. 

In Germany, one of every six industrial companies feels forced to reduce production due to high energy prices, a survey by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, DIHK, showed at the end of July. Nearly a quarter of the companies forced to reduce production had already done so by end-July, and another one-quarter are in the process of scaling back production due to sky-high energy prices, according to the survey of 3,500 companies from all sectors and regions in Germany.

The energy-intensive industries and firms are particularly hit, as 32 percent of the companies plan to or have already started to reduce production and even halt entire production lines, the DIHK survey showed. — OilPrice.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova 

Runaway energy costs were halted this week as German year-ahead electricity futures plunged by half since Monday’s peak above 1,000 euros a megawatt-hour as the EU considers market interventions. EU NatGas prices closed down about 33% from the highs reached on Aug. 25. 

However, here’s where things get very dicey. After European markets closed, around the lunch hour in New York, news broke that Russian energy giant Gazprom won’t resume critical NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 tomorrow after an oil leak was detected. There’s no timeframe when NatGas supply will resume to the energy-stricken continent. 

Europe’s energy crisis could materially worsen, which means higher NatGas and power prices that will only curb more industrial output. Germany could fall into recession this winter, bringing the rest of the bloc down with it. 

end

/UK//EU//GAS PRICES/ELECTRICAL PROBLEMS

Europeans are warned of unprecedented power failures this winter

(Watson/SummitNews)

Darker & Colder: Europeans Warned Of “Unprecedented” Power Failures This Winter

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Europeans are being warned of ‘unprecedented’ power failures this winter as the energy crisis brings a foreseeable future that will be colder and darker.

“There is an increased risk of a lack of power this winter,” Klaus Winther, deputy director at Energinet, the Danish national transmission system operator for electricity and natural gas, told TV2.

Winther says the crisis will herald a new era of energy consumption predicated on rationing to prevent blackouts.

A “perfect storm” of soaring prices, a hot dry summer, and a collapse in the confidence of energy security means power grid failures are now a real possibility.

“The production of electricity cannot keep up with the demand, and this increases the probability of a power failure,” said Winther.

Although insisting that “power cuts are the absolutely last tool we have in the drawer,” Winther warned that individual distribution companies may be forced to shut off electricity supplies for hours at a time to avoid longer blackouts.

Meanwhile, Brian Vad Mathiesen, professor of energy planning at Aalborg University, said Danes may have to adopt a 1970’s oil crisis-style mentality and get used to living in colder and darker houses.

“We must create energy-saving campaigns on a scale we cannot imagine, and everyone must take responsibility,” he said.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Sweden, the prospect of sustained power outages has been increased from “low” to “real,” with the more populated areas most at risk.

“This winter, at its coldest, there is a real risk that we will have to interrupt electricity consumption in parts of southern Sweden,” strategic operations manager for Swedish power grid operator Svenska Kraftnät, Erik Ek, said in a press release.

As we document in the video below, all of this was avoidable.

There was a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia in place back in early April, but it was deliberately derailed by Boris Johnson and the Biden administration.

END

UK

Energy costs are expected to rise significantly  on Oct 1.  This is before the announcement of Truss  (see below)

(zerohedge)

Amid Unprecedented Cost-Of-Living Crisis, BoJo Tells Brits “Buy A New Kettle”

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 07:35 AM

As electricity bills hyperinflate due to dwindling natural gas supplies from Russia, half of all UK households risk being pushed into energy poverty in the coming months. Brits face a historic energy crisis that is morphing into a cost-of-living nightmare while disgraced and outgoing prime minister Boris Johnson told people this week to purchase a new efficient “kettle” to save on their power bill. 

“If you have an old kettle which takes ages to boil, it may cost you £20 to replace it – but if you get a new one, you’ll save £10 a year every year on your electricity bill,” Johnson said. 

The prime minister’s critics and the internet were quick to jump on his “out of touch” comment ahead of what could be one of the darkest winters Brits will face in more than a century as hyperinflating power prices will collapse living standards. 

One Twitter user said: “Boris Johnson says we should spend £20 on a new kettle which will shave a tenner off our energy bills, even now as the UK crumbles, as people beg, steal, borrow to survive (because of his party) it’s one big joke.”

A second said: “Sooooo spend £20 to save a tenner this year? Never mind the fact that it takes exactly the same amount of energy to boil water slowly as it does to boil it quickly.”

Many said his advice was “out of touch” with reality… “This is the best the prime minister of this country can come up with?” one person questioned.

Johnson’s comments come nearly a week after energy regulator Ofgem increased the cap on power bills to a record £3,549 ($4,189) beginning Oct. 1 from £1,971 ($2,330) at present. That cap is expected to rise to £5,439 ($6,427) by January and £7,272 ($8,594) by spring — all due to elevated wholesale NatGas and electricity prices caused by declining Russian energy supplies to Europe, made worse by Western sanctions that have backfired. 

News Friday that Russian energy giant Gazprom was expected to resume critical supplies of NatGas to Europe via Nord Stream 1 on Saturday has since been postponed because an undetected oil leakage could make things a lot worse for the UK and Europe. 

On Monday, a vote will decide who will replace Johnson — if it’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss or former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

END

UK

Liz Truss, (geography challenged) is now the new British Prime Minister

Liz Truss To Become UK’s Next Prime Minister, Faces Immediate Confidence Crisis

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 12:11 PM

After a drawn-out contest, the country’s ruling Conservative Party on Monday picked Liz Truss to be its new leader and the U.K.’s new prime minister.

Truss, until now the U.K.’s foreign minister, beat rival Rishi Sunak, the country’s former finance minister, to win the leadership race. With members of the Conservative Party asked to vote for their favorite candidate over the last few weeks, 81,326 members voted for Truss while 60,399 members voted for Sunak. Turnout was 82.6%

Truss does not automatically become prime minister on Monday as ritual dictates that the outgoing prime minister (in this case Boris Johnson) first has to tender his resignation to Queen Elizabeth II, who then appoints Truss.

Truss, a free-market Tory, was elected as an MP in 2010 and has served in the cabinets of David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. She will become the fourth Tory prime minister in little more than six years.

The 47-year-old incoming premier has promised a rightwing agenda of tax cuts – largely funded by borrowing – in an attempt to halt Britain sliding into a lengthy recession.

But, as Bill Blain warns this morning At MorningPorridge.com, the new UK Premier has 5 days – tops – to establish her new government and put in place the strategies and policies to restore confidence in the UK economy. If not, the Virtuous Sovereign Trinity will fracture. It needs sound communication and clear grasp of the problems behind the crisis. Truss hasn’t demonstrated either – yet.

New UK premier Lis Truss has, at most, 5 days to deliver a confidence turnaround in the UK economy. She has promised to deliver a plan – and we are all desperate to hear what it is. Expectations are not high.

It is not the Morning Porridge’s aim to comment directly on politics, but on how politics are likely to shift and nudge markets. It’s not my role to comment on the efficacy of policy proposals, like the ones she is apparently set to announce, but on whether the market will be convinced they are good and effective for the UK.

Simply put: If Truss fails to deliver a coherent strategy for the economy in the next few days – the UK risks an even steeper decline in sterling, an unravelling Gilts market (UK Government Bonds) and the undermining of the third leg of the Virtuous Sovereign Trinity; the political and economic strength that’s underlain the UK’s hard and soft power since the 17th Century.

The signs are not good. I suspect her goodie bag is empty.

Truss is not a communicator. Neither was Thatcher. Truss is not Thatcher.

Truss has refused to be interviewed one-on-one through the latter stages of the Tory leadership campaign. She finally had to face the music yesterday on the new Laura Kuenssberg BBC Sunday Morning Brekdrek Sunday Politics vehicle yesterday.

Truss presented herself as an heir to Margaret Thatcher, promising tax cuts and less regulation, insisting it was wrong to see all economic policy through “the lens of redistribution”.

I have watched pine logs after a personality by-pass come out a difficult interview in better shape.

It was a train-wreck – she answered nothing. She looked tired and haggered. She was a rabbit caught in the headlights, which is not a good look ahead of the most difficult and critical week in UK politics.

One of Kuenssberg’s panel, comedian Joe Lycett – self-identified fanatical Right Wing supporter (ahem..) – was very supportive: Lycett “praised” Truss for her “clarity”. He added: ‘I think the haters will say that we’ve had 12 years of the Tories and that we’re sort of at the dregs of what they’ve got available and that Liz Truss is the backwash of the available MPs. I wouldn’t say that because I’m incredibly right wing, but some people might say that.

Convincing sceptical markets the UK economy is in fine shape is going to require a gifted and trusted communicator. Yesterday, Rishi Sunak – the losing contender for the job – demonstrated he had it: an appealing mix of smarts and chutzpah to deliver the message. But, looking at the scale of the crisis and the impossibility of herding the fraxiously-riven Tory Party to deliver, Sunak must be delighted to have lost.

This morning, Truss’ Chancellor in Waiting, Kwasi Kwarteng gets the front page of the FT to explain what she was supposed to say yesterday: A Liz Truss Government would be unashamedly pro-growth.

As you would expect from a well-educated member of the Eton/Oxford Chumocracy, Kwarteng writes well and fluidly – explaining carefully the first challenge of helping households and businesses through the energy and inflationary price shocks brought on by “Putin’s War” in Ukraine. They will also address the second challenge of long-term issues, like taking “responsibility for the health and wealth of the economy and country”… which pretty much defines what we all expect our government to do… anyway.

Kwarteng will be the next Chancellor of the UK – the man pulling the purse strings, funding policies, and directing the spending on recovery. In his FT note this morning he lays out the bones of this plan to create confidence in the UK economy:

  • Fiscal loosening to support “people” through the winter – which I assume not only means helping people to survive the cold, but also bringing down the massive fuel bills threatening to close businesses across the UK? (Not much point surviving winter if there are no jobs left.)
  • Rowing back on Truss’s comments undermining the Bank of England’s independence – by confirming it will remain free. (Andrew Bailey resigning now would have strangled this new government’s credibility at birth. I hear it may have been on the cards unless a commitment was given. I guess he will stay now.)
  • Sound public finances and a strong economy. (No Sh*t Sherlock)
  • Pro-growth – conditions for investment and innovation to flourish. (NSS)
  • Unlocking investment and growth, rather than how we tax and spend. (NSS + Deflection)
  • Reversing stagnation and anaemic growth by improving productivity. (NSS)
  • Being decisive and doing things differently. (Really… how refreshing.)
  • Targeting 2.5% growth trend. (Achievable.)
  • No mention of Brexit anywhere.

Etc, etc, etc… Sound bites are no substitute for action.

For readers unfamiliar with Mr Kwarteng, the UK business secretary was assuring us that high gas prices in 2021 were not a problem. After earlier overseeing the closure of the Rough gas storage facility (which he is now desperately rushing to reopen), and that the UK could access gas on global markets at better prices, he assured us that: “Energy security is an absolute priority” last year So, how did that play out Kwasi?

I am not sure if Mr Kwarteng is aware, but his party have been in power since 2010, the effective end of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the beginning of the strongest stock market boom in history – largely fuelled by Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Easing. Over the 12 years since, the Conservative party has delivered us an economy when the productivity gains he blithely expects to generate have been… 0.4% per annum. Not a staggering success after more than a decade in power.

I am delighted to note that Mr Kwarteng has spotted the importance of productivity. Is he aware of how to generate improvements? I doubt it. The default Tory perspective is its feckless lazy workers not working hard enough… pay them less and they will work harder. That’s a dunderhead approach – it’s management who need to lead and provide the wherewithal in terms of plant, machinery, stimulus, incentives and conditions to improve productivity. It can be done – take a look at cooperative Scandinavian economies.

Truss (a former member of the Hayek Society) has surrounded herself with a curious pack of economic advisors, including Patrick Minford (Thatcher’s favourite monetarist) as her economic guru. His basic prescription for the economy is to borrow more to fund tax cuts on the basis it will boost business.

Have the Conservatives actually been looking at the UK economy these last 12 years? The effect of ultra-loose monetary conditions, and the great fiscal giveaways during the pandemic, was not primarily to create economic growth, innovation, new plant and new jobs, but to focus management on maximising their returns from the financial asset market – it being better to do things like stock buybacks (with the incidental higher bonuses to management), than invest in growth and productivity. Let corporates pay less tax, and there is no guarantee it will flow to new jobs and productivity – more likely into the pockets of the owners and managers to invest in financial assets.

But such is the basis of the Truss plan. The plan such as it is.. Let’s wait and hear the details.

Around the globe investors will be looking at the new Truss government and making decisions about what it means for investment in the UK. Truss and her Chancellor can make all the noise they can about how it’s a great time to invest in the UK, but the reality is not what they say… it’s what investors conclude from what they hear and see.

Maybe I am guilty of high treason for being suspicious there is no real plan – just a series of hashed up compromises between the factions of the Conservative Party that got Truss her new job. The Brexiteers will be demanding greater Brexit, the debt-doubters will be demanding she reigns back on spending, the feee-marketeers will be demand tax-cuts for businesses, and a clamp down on wage-demands in the face of the inflation shock. The workers will be blamed, and nothing will get done.

Unless I am very much mistaken, Sterling is going to end the week an awful lot lower, and Gilts will be yielding more

end

UK

60% of British factories are at risk of going bust as energy bills soar

(vaccine mandate)

60% of British Factories at Risk of Going Under as Energy Bills Soar

September 4, 2022 7:28 pm

Soaring energy bills are threatening to put six in 10 British manufacturers out of business, according to a survey that lays bare the extent of the crisis facing the next prime minister. MakeUK, the lobby group for UK factories, said that nearly half of manufacturers have experienced a jump in electricity bills of more than 100% in the past year. “The current crisis is leaving businesses facing a stark choice,” the report said. “Cut production or shut up shop altogether if help does not come soon.”

Read More…

end

UK

Leaked papers show that UK cops are preparing for greater civil unrest this winter.

(zerohedge)

Leaked Paper Shows UK Cops Preparing For “Greater Civil Unrest” This Winter

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 02:45 AM

New Prime Minister Liz Truss may have only weeks to deliver a confidence turnaround in the UK economy or face a surge in violent crime and breakdown in public order caused by a cost-of-living crisis.

The Times revealed police chiefs fear “economic turmoil and financial instability” has the “potential to drive increases in particular crime types,” such as shoplifting, burglary, vehicle theft, and online fraud and blackmail, as Brits face one of the worst collapses in living standards in a century amid energy hyperinflation. 

“Prolonged and painful economic pressure” could spark “greater civil unrest,” similar to the 2011 London riots, the leaked national strategy paper read. 

“Greater financial vulnerability may expose some staff to a higher risk of corruption, especially among those who fall into significant debt or financial difficulties,” it continued. 

One police chief noticed increased violent crime as inflation is stuck at multi-decade highs. This comes as energy regulator Ofgem increased the cap on power bills to a record £3,549 ($4,189) beginning Oct. 1 from £1,971 ($2,330). That cap is expected to rise to £5,439 ($6,427) by January and £7,272 ($8,594) by spring. 

Besides police, energy executives warned that mass civil unrest looms as people cannot afford their heating and electricity bills this winter. 

About 160,000 Brits have joined a movement against skyrocketing electricity bills, vowing not to pay come Oct. 1

Last Friday, Russia’s energy giant Gazprom PJSC halted flows via Nord Stream 1 to Europe, sending EU natural gas and electricity prices soaring on Monday. This means Truss hardly has any time to deliver a coherent strategy to save households from energy poverty and businesses from failing

The massive protest in Prague this past weekend, where tens of thousands of Czechs flooded the streets, offers a glimpse of the impending social unrest that could hit the street of the UK if power bills continue rising without government intervention. 

Published last week was a new report via Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm, warning there’s a high risk of social unrest in Europe later this year due to rising inflation. 

Europeans are finally waking up to how bad Western sanctions on Russia have backfired, as their governments sacrificed ordinary people over NATO’s proxy fight against Russia in Ukraine. These protests could spread like wildfire across Europe, and it appears the UK is preparing for the worst-case scenario. 

end

Europe

Yields soar in Europe as they unleash huge fiscal stimulus to cover mammoth rises in energy costs. Again, this will cause debt monetization and thus no QT, only QE


(zerohedge)

Nomura: Yields Soar As Europe Unleashes Fiscal Stimulus Tsunami Which Will Require Debt Monetization

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 10:33 AM

Equities are rallying, and yields are surging, with the 10Y rising above 3.30%…

… on what according to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott is one clear catalyst – the same one we laid out in “Europe Unleashes Energy Hyperinflation Bailout Bazooka” – namely Europe’s “moment of intervention” from various euro governments with regard to the Euro Energy crisis via mega-stimulus, while a report from MNI citing “ECB sources” and stating that President Lagarde is “likely to opt for 50” bps hike only at the upcoming meetingwhich is a de facto easing relative to recent expectations which have built for 75bps hike, certainly helping.

Regarding the EU / UK “Minsky Moment” Energy situation, which we profiled extensively over the weekendMcElligott writes that “the worse the crisis gets, the more asymmetric the crisis response becomes, and he we are now entering the “sovereigns take on the credit- and market- risk via stimulus and intervention” phase, as European and British leadership assume the fiscal bill (price caps, tariff deficits) and or directly engage in Energy markets.

In other words, from PPP for covid, we have shifted to PPP for energy hyperinflation.

Case in point on magnitude/scope of what they have to solve for, earlier we noted that the ongoing European bailout will have to pay at least $1.5 trillion in margin calls, according to Norgwegian energy giant Equinor (f/k/a Statoil):

“European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion, according to Norwegian energy company Equinor ASA.

Aside from inflating bills and fanning inflation, the biggest energy crisis in decades is sucking up capital to guarantee trades amid wild price swings. That’s putting pressure on European Union officials to intervene to prevent energy markets from stalling.

“Liquidity support is going to be needed,” Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. The issue is focused on derivatives trading, while the physical market is functioning, he said, adding that the company’s estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is “conservative.””

… or the even bigger shock, namely what we showed last night was Goldman’s estimate of a $2 trillion surge in European Energy bills by 2023, roughly 15% of Europe’s GDP (more in a subsequent post).

Here McElligott says that speaking pragmatically, he is “not really sure how fiscal stimulus works to address Energy supply shortage realities…but hey, I’m just a grunt laborer.”

In any case, with Europe now on a collision course with the hard, cold, commodity-free reality, one should get out of the way of governments according to the Nomura strategist (at least in the beginning), “because the left-tail scenario odds get slashed by “moving the goalposts,” “kicking the can” and re-writing the rules mid-game, despite likely unintended and / or second-order consequences of solutions which are normally associated with “money-printing” down-the-road.”

Here the x-asset strategist asks another rhetorical question, one which we – and rabobank – have been comtemplating this morning: “Honestly, how does one handicap the market impact of the reported Truss’ fiscal package upwards of £130B to cap energy bills for UK households and businesses, as it relates to Gilts and Sterling?” His answer:

On one hand, the govt is planning to somehow cut taxes while simultaneously and violently expanding their deficit…big yikes

And as Jordan Rochester notes, the UK / Truss plan as it relates to GBP could actually make trade flows WORSE as it supports consumption

But on the other, the outlook for CPI inflation will dramatically shift if the UK govt does indeed freeze energy prices, which then seemingly risks downside to current BoE hike trajectory

Being realistic regarding the eventual “footing the bill” for this largesse, Charlie says that it always “boomerangs” back to the central banks and quasi- “monetization”—so this will be an FX / Rates trade long-term, which locally then risks an unruly squeeze higher in US Dollar as the “cleanest dirty shirt.”

The more nuanced message is that with yields now blowing out as governments foot the fiscal stimulus to offset the massive costs, central banks will need to resume QE in the very near future to avoid a bond market collapse!

And separately, as we have seen throughout the life of this particularly idiosyncratic energy crisis, the Nomura strategist repeats what we first said yesterday, namely that nearly all of the response from governments and authorities have been forms of solutions (whether subsidies, price caps and tax unwinds) which perversely create “demand construction”…

… which not only offset what central banks are trying to do, but also contributing to higher likelihood of further shortages, as opposed to allowing for higher prices to do the work of “demand destruction” and force behavioral “consumption” change…

What does this mean for markets? Well, as McElligott notes, as this 1) “eventual monetization” relates to the current global interest rates trajectory zeitgeist, it’s just another source of negative pressure outside of 2) “higher for longer” global theme, 3) max cap US QT and 4) bearish Fall seasonality. Hence, Nomura sees G10 Bond Yields continuing higher yet-again, as “Shorts” are further emboldened, and indeed yields are surging this morning as markets now will demand central banks to start monetizing bonds again!

This too risks strengthening the global FCI tightening sledgehammer that is “higher US Dollar” (what currency do you want to be “long” on the other side?!), occuring alongside the recent surge in US Real Yields, both conspiring to further “choke-out” global inancial conditions

Finally, a part of this flow is likely showing-up in futures Spec positioning, with last reporting week (8/30) showing another sale of -$5.6mm / 01 and making seven consecutive weeks of selling—with the aggregate at ~-$180mm of Shorts being pressed (of course, a short squeeze is inevitable… but not yet).

UK

Truss, the new PM plans on a massive 130 billion pound plan to freeze UK power bills and prevent the rise scheduled Oct 1/

(zerohedge)

Incoming PM Truss Drafts Colossal £130 Billion Plan To Freeze UK Power Bills

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 08:25 AM

Liz Truss, the Conservative Party’s new leader and incoming prime minister, drafted plans for a massive £130 billion support package over the next 18 months to help struggling households and businesses lower energy bills, according to policy documents seen by Bloomberg.

Truss faces massive economic challenges as energy hyperinflation, and a cost-of-living crisis darkens the outlook, with a recession becoming more likely. She has to act swiftly to avert social unrest

On Oct 1, household energy bills were expected to jump 80% to £3,548 a year, forcing people into energy poverty as they must choose between heating their homes or putting food on the table. Under Truss’ new plan, the energy price hike would be canceled. Instead, her team would develop a new unit price that households would pay for electricity and natural gas. 

According to documents, energy suppliers would charge households at a lower rate for power, and the government would cover the difference with the utility. 

On Monday, Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is set to become Business Secretary, met with top executives of energy companies to discuss Truss’ new plan. A person at the meeting said the execs were more open-minded about this plan than being hit with a windfall tax. 

The new protections for households and businesses will be announced as early as the second half of this month and implemented in October. As for businesses, officials are in the process of drafting emergency legislation. 

“Limiting households’ bills could cost as much as £130 billion over the next 18 months … cost of the plan to protect businesses will range from £21 billion to £42 billion over six months, depending on how low the cap is set. Over a year, the estimated costs to the government range from £28 billion to £67 billion,” Bloomberg said. 

Truss will be arriving at Balmoral Castle in Scotland to meet Queen Elizabeth II ahead of taking office later today as the successor to Boris Johnson. 

Gilt yields across the curve retreated from highs on Truss’ proposed power bill support package. The pound responded well as one of the top G-10 performers today, and UK stocks are positive. 

Truss faces a colossal task to turn the UK around. Freezing power bills kicks the can down the road — but will do nothing to solve the worsening energy crisis as Nord Stream 1 NatGas flows to Europe came to a halt over the weekend. 

end

Trillions in support payments are going to be needed as Switzerland and Finland join Europe’s bailout brigade

(zerohedge)

Trillions In “Liquidity Support Is Going To Be Needed” As Swiss, Finns Join Europe’s Bailout Brigade

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 09:05 AM

As we detailed over the weekend, many companies are finding it increasingly difficult to manage margin calls, an exchange requirement for extra collateral to guarantee trading positions when prices rise…

Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Poszar published what may have been the most insightful snippet of the entire European energy crisis (to date) when he extended the infamous “Minsky Moment” framework to Europe, and specifically Germany, which he said “can’t cover its payments without Russian gas and the government is asking citizens to conserve energy to leave more for industry.” He then elaborated that “Minsky moments are triggered by excessive financial leverage, and in the context of supply chains, leverage means excessive operating leverage: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia… …that’s 100-times leverage – much more than Lehman’s.” 

(Zoltan’s entire note is a must read for everyone with a passing interest in what comes next).

But while Germany is front-and-center in this margin call malaise, many other European nations are suddenly succumbing to what Zoltan dubbed a “supply-chain Minsky moment.”

Over the weekend, we reported that Sweden and Austria had begun to bail out their energy suppliers:

  • Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the loan to Wien Energie was an “extraordinary rescue measure” to ensure its two million customers – mainly Vienna households – continue to receive electricity. It will run until next April.
  • Prime minister Magdalena Andersson said the government would offer hundreds of billions of kroner in support to electricity producers, the FT reported. The PM warned that, left unchecked, rising collateral demands for electricity producers could ripple through the main Nasdaq Clearing market in Stockholm and, in the worst case, spark a financial crisis…. just as Zoltan warned almost half a year ago.

And today, Reuters reports that Finland and Switzerland have joined the bailout brigade…

  • Finnish utility Fortum said it had signed a bridge financing arrangement with government investment company Solidium worth 2.35 billion euros ($2.34 billion) to cover its collateral needs. A Finnish government official told Reuters the support was in addition to the 10 billion euros of liquidity guarantees Helsinki announced for power companies on Sunday.
  • Swiss utility Axpo said it had received a credit line of up to 4 billion Swiss francs ($4.1 billion) from the government to help secure its liquidity needs. The Swiss government has lined up a 10 billion franc safety net for power firms, but decided to allocate the funds to Axpo even though the legislation is still before parliament.

The numbers are adding up fast but pale in comparison to what the final price could be if European governments decide this is their ‘whatever it takes’ moment.

Norwegian energy giant Equinor ASA warned European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion.

While the physical market is functioning, the derivatives market is beginning to show serious signs of systemic stress.

Bloomberg reports that Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview that “liquidity support is going to be needed,” warning that his company’s estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is “conservative.”

And Haugane confirms what we explained was driving the breakdown in market functioning in the (paper) energy markets:

“This is just capital that is dead and tied up in margin calls,” Haugane said in an interview at the Gastech conference in Milan.

“If the companies need to put up that much money, that means liquidity in the market dries up and this is not good for this part of the gas markets,” he said.

Sadly – but not entirely unexpectedly, Haugane says that EU plans to intervene would be “sensible” for derivatives trading. In other words, we are back to the ‘too big to fail’ arguments from 2008 when fears of the apocalypse (this time in real energy markets ahead of winter) prompted demands that government “do something” to save the over-levered from themselves… with the excuse being ‘if you do not rescue us, there will be hell to pay for the average EU joe’.

Finally, how exactly does this explicitly inflationary ‘bailout’ pair with ECB’s inflation-fighting mandate? We are sure Lagarde and Van der Leyen have all the answers… and if you dare ask, you are a Putin puppet (because remember decades of piss-poor policy decisions signaling as much virtue as possible led to this crisis point among the ‘green’ climate climaxers… Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was merely the final straw that Trump had warned about).

Without the ‘pain’ that Fed Chair Powell has warned about, no one will ever face the consequences of change their actions… but none of that accountability gets you elected, so don’t expect anything but more intervention. As Daniel Lacalle recently concludes, if there is one thing that this crisis shows us, it is that what Europe needs is more market and less intervention. Europe arrived at this crisis due to a combination of arrogance and ignorance on the part of the legislators who control the energy mix. The importance of a balanced mix, with nuclear, hydro, gas and renewables is more evident every day. Interventionist energy policy has failed miserably. More intervention is not going to solve it.

end

Re: Trillions In “Liquidity Support Is Going To Be Needed” As Swiss, Finns Join Europe’s Bailout Brigade | ZeroHedge

Robert Hryniak12:49 PM (6 minutes ago)
to

One slight problem… none of these Euro based countries have the liquidity of a sturdy balance sheet with current assets to backstop such a amount. As it is, they for the most part cannot cover interest payments on current outstanding debt, without the ECB buying 100% of all new debt creation. And there is no ability to retire any existent debt. Given the balance sheets of most banks in Europe are illiquid if not insolvent, they have no ability to move. Years of low interest or non existent interest rates have simply destroyed both the bond market and pensions. 

Thus, they print which drives inflation or collapse and neither keeps them warm or industry running. This has been evident for some time as real estate has largely become illiquid and Euro denominated debt has zero liquidity outside of Europe. Try raising a dollar in New York or Singapore against such debt.

Klaus and his followers at the WEF will have to seize all private property and face civil unrest or war or each country will be forced at some point to say goodbye to the Euro and revert to national currencies. You might say their hand has been forced by actions that even they did not see or know. It is why in the end no matter the carnage, they will fail. And why globalization is dead, to the chagrin of many and understood by a few for now. Wait until the bankers figure it out. It maybe other nations like Hungary will come out of this, way ahead of this calamity that found a place to happen. If England does not fall into the abyss, then London may see the opportunity of the century. Whether, they can escape the clutches of the WEF fast enough remains to be seen. The City will no doubt, but the country is up in the air at the moment. The British spirit is such that some parties will sacrifice for the greater good no matter the cost. Whether Europeans will, is a different story and if that is the case it will be new found leaders or people like Orban who are nationalists or simply patriots.

In a time of war when foolishness governs politics and fiscal country decisions a frosty winter will awaken reason or Europe will disintegrate into mass civil unrest and public violence. The West made the Ukraine their proxy to engage in a fight with Russia in the hopes of stealing Russian natural resources to bail out their fiscal misjudgments and greed.

 There is a new book coming out in November that has up until now classified materials from the Clinton era that will detail all of this in spades and the why and how of Neocons like Nuland and others in this veiled intrigue. This book will also describe how certain Russian oligarchs conspired with the West to do Russia in. Do not mourn their losses by seizure now as there is a darkness to their wealth. Not withstanding the ills of Putin, Yeltsin turned to him asking him to save Russia from this fate. So what you have is is stand-off that will be decided by common sense or by limited war or by theft. Recent arms shipments by the US will test further how far Russia will be pushed. Sadly, the ship of fools called a government in DC led by a teleprompter reader is incapable of common sense unless forced to act sensibly. Fortune has it that they have limited room now to move. And this time, the European public will have a voice by necessity, unless Europeans choose to become serfs again. One will not need to wait long before this is shown. And God knows what the migrants will do with real time collapsing industrial output because the cash is not there to support them. And they will unlikely sit quiet in their ghettos. 

As for the rascals and thieves supporting Zelensky, it was never about the Ukraine having sovereignty or decency but about the Ukraine being the sacrificial goat in a much larger game of hegemony. 

Wait for the book! 

END

SWEDEN/GERMANY//AUSTRIA

First, Germany’s gas company UNIPER and now Sweden and Austria start bailout out their own energy companies.  As i described to you, this is Europe’s “Minsky Momment”

Please pray tell how billions of loans will help these utilities when most citizens cannot pay their bills

(zerohedge>)

Sweden, Austria Start Bailing Out Energy Companies Triggering Europe’s “Minsky Moment”

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 01:00 PM

Last weekend, Credit Suisse repo guru published what may have been the most insightful snippet of the entire European energy crisis (to date) when he extended the infamous “Minsky Moment” framework to Europe, and specifically Germany, which he said “can’t cover its payments without Russian gas and the government is asking citizens to conserve energy to leave more for industry.” He then elaborated that “Minsky moments are triggered by excessive financial leverage, and in the context of supply chains, leverage means excessive operating leverage: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia… …that’s 100-times leverage – much more than Lehman’s.” (Zoltan’s entire note is a must read for everyone with a passing interest in what comes next).

But while Germany still pretends it can somehow avoid a devastating crisis this winter besides bailing out Uniper, one of the country’s biggest utilities (after all, admission would make Trump’s 2018 warning accurate and prescient, and everyone knows that according to Western intellectual snobs Trump can’t possibly ever be correct), other European nations are succumbing to what Zoltan dubbed a “supply-chain Minsky moment.”

On Wednesday it was Austria, which announced it would bail out the country’s main energy supplier with a two-billion-euro ($2 billion) loan, the AFP reported. Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the loan to Wien Energie was an “extraordinary rescue measure” to ensure its two million customers – mainly Vienna households – continue to receive electricity. It will run until next April.

Wien Energie asked for a bailout this weekend after suffering financial trouble amid soaring energy prices and speculation the company mismanaged their funds. Nehammer said Wien Energie, which is owned by Vienna, would have to answer questions as to how they got into trouble.

“The goal was to help people quickly… It has now been agreed that all of these questions, which are rightly raised, must be answered promptly by Vienna (and) the energy supplier,” he told reporters.

The company – almost entirely dependent on Russian gas – said earlier this week that it had been hit by the “price explosion” which it has not yet passed on to customers, assuring it remained solvent. As part of its rescue, the company is expected to pass through soaring costs, which means a historic price shock is coming to Austria next… and soon Sweden.

Following in Austria’s footsteps, on Saturday morning Sweden announced it will give emergency liquidity support to electricity producers after the government said it feared Russia’s decision to halt gas deliveries to Europe could place its financial system under severe strain.

Prime minister Magdalena Andersson said the government would offer hundreds of billions of kroner in support to electricity producers, the FT reported. The PM warned that, left unchecked, rising collateral demands for electricity producers could ripple through the main Nasdaq Clearing market in Stockholm and, in the worst case, spark a financial crisis…. just as Zoltan warned almost half a year ago.

Her remarks came after Russia said on Friday evening that it would no longer supply gas via the Nordstream 1 pipeline. That announcement came after energy markets had closed for the weekend.

“Yesterday’s announcement not only risks leading to a ‘war winter’ but also threatens our financial stability,” Andersson said, standing alongside Sweden’s financial regulator, central bank governor and finance minister at an emergency press conference on Saturday.

Sweden’s dramatic action underscored the seriousness of the situation facing Europe as it scrambles to secure enough energy ahead of the winter and tries to avoid the spread of distress among electricity producers.

As we reported previously, Germany already bailed out one of the country’s biggest utilities, Uniper, and its majority shareholder, Finnish energy group Fortum, in turn asked the government in Helsinki for support. Fortum warned on Monday that its collateral requirements had risen by €1bn to €5bn in the previous week, and that a default by a smaller player would cause “severe disturbances to the Nordic power system”.

Andersson said the support would apply to all Nordic and Baltic players, and would need approval by the Swedish parliament’s finance committee on Monday.  Even the country’s central bank was forced to chime in: “We need to isolate this in one market so it doesn’t infect the financial sector,” said Stefan Ingves, governor of the Riksbank.

While Swedish authorities said they saw no immediate risk to financial stability (translation: financial stability is on the verge of collapse), but were worried that otherwise-solvent companies could struggle to find enough liquidity, causing potential ripple effects. “Russia is waging an energy war against Europe to divide us. But we will not let Putin succeed,” Andersson said.

Andersson’s comments come a week before parliamentary elections in Sweden with polls pointing to a surge in the anti-Immigrant, Eurosceptic Sweden Democrats, who are set to become the nation’s 2nd largest party. She said her centre-left government stood ready to act, just as it did over the Covid-19 pandemic, but it’s unclear if she will even get the votes to be in majority.

Erik Thedéen, head of Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority, said power prices in Sweden had risen 11-fold in the past year, leading to a jump in collateral demands. He added that without liquidity support electricity producers could face bankruptcies and large losses that could lead to the collapse of the clearing house. “It is under very severe stress,” he said.

In hopes of easing Eurpope’s “Minsky Moment” energy crisis, last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Monday the bloc was preparing to take “emergency” action to reform the electricity market and bring prices under control. Also, on Friday, G7 members unanimously decided to impose price caps on Russian oil imports (an absolutely idiotic scheme as explained yesterday, and one which will send oil prices sharply higher). In response, Russia shocked markets when, late on Friday, it said that the previously scheduled resumption of natgas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline won’t happen due to an “accidental” oil leak. This ensures that European nat gas and power prices are set to hit new all time highs come Monday.

end

CZECH REPUBLIC/PRAGUE/ENERGY CRISIS

the energy crisis is spreading all across Europe. On Saturday a huge 70,000 strong protest in Prague

(zerohedge)

“Europe On The Brink:” 70,000 Czech Protesters Flood Prague Over Energy Crisis

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 02:00 PM

More than 70,000 Czechs are protesting in Prague, the capital, demanding the ruling coalition take a neutral stance on the Ukraine war to ensure energy supplies from Russia aren’t cut off ahead of winter. Protesters are outraged at the European Union for sanctions against Russia that have sparked soaring electricity bills and triggered a cost-of-living crisis. 

“The aim of our demonstration is to demand change, mainly in solving the issue of energy prices, especially electricity and gas, which will destroy our economy this autumn,” event organizer Jiri Havel told local news iDNES and quoted by Reuters

The protest, held at Wenceslas Square in the heart of the capital, comes one day after the Czech government survived a no-confidence vote over opposition claims of inaction to protect citizens against energy hyperinflation. 

Emerging political instability shows how Europe’s energy crisis fuels discontent among households. We noted a new study Friday that warned civil unrest could flare up in parts of Europe over the next six months because of the deteriorating macro backdrop of high inflation. 

Czechs are tired of Western sanctions on Russia that have sparked a devastating energy crisis. They want Czech interest first over the EU’s and demand cheap Russian gas and neutrality.

 “The entire Wenceslas Square demands the resignation of the government! We will demand that the current cabinet, which is working against us, resign”: A 70,000-strong rally was held in Prague Also demand lower gas and electricity prices and neutrality on the conflict in Ukraine

Smells like everybody is pissed off by NATO.

◾In Prague, 50 thousand people came to a rally: they demand that the authorities take a neutral position on the conflict in Ukraine ◾The rally that is taking place at these minutes is called “The Czech Republic first of all.”

Western sanctions are backfiring, and some Europeans are awakening to how their governments sacrificed their livelihoods for NATO’s proxy fight against Russia in Ukraine. What’s happening in Prague could spread like wildfire throughout the EU.

END 

EUROPE

Europe plans radical intervention including price settings, suspending derivatives as Europe implodes

(zerohedge)

As Europe Implodes, It Plans “Radical Intervention” Including Price-Setting, Suspending Derivatives Markets And Europe-Wide Margin Call Bailouts

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 08:11 AM

Just when you thought the narrative couldn’t get any more idiotic, Europe shocks just about everyone.

A few days after the EU threatened commodity traders it would stage an “emergency intervention” to crush energy prices which were rising at a pace of about 20% per day (perhaps Europe can now print nat gas and electricity in addition to monetizing all deficits while injecting trillions in the process)…

… a move which actually worked for a few days until Putin reminded Europe who’s boss late on Friday when Gazprom suddenly decided it would “completely halt” all Nord Stream 1 transit altogether due to an “oil leak“, with the news sending global stock markets plunging and threatening to push European gas and power prices back to all time highs when markets reopen on Monday as well as forcing Sweden to follow Austria and Germany in bailing out energy companies as Nordic authorities warned of a “Lehman” moment risk, late on Sunday Bloomberg reported that European ministers will discuss “special measures to rein in soaring energy costs – from gas-price caps to a suspension of power derivatives trading – as the bloc scrambles to respond to latest developments in the deepening crisis.” A draft document seen by Bloomberg News notes that the Czech Republic, which holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, is set to include those tools on a list of emergency intervention options to be discussed at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday.

While anything it does is doomed to fail, Europe has been scrambling to stave off an energy catastrophe that’s threatening to become an economic, social, and even financial crisis too.

European leaders have been working for months to try to offset the impact of Russia’s squeeze on gas — a move they describe as the weaponization of energy. But the decision late Friday by Gazprom PJSC to keep the crucial Nord Stream pipeline shut brought on a new sense of panic.

In response to soaring energy prices and rationing of firewood, over the weekend, Germany – the country most affected by the Nord Stream cutoff – unveiled a $65 billion package meant to boost demand and to protect consumers, with a levy on windfall profits, in effect completely undoing the ECB’s efforts to squash demand by hiking interest rates and ending QE, similar to what the Biden admin is doing to the Fed in the US.

At the same time, thousands of Czechs protesting in the streets this weekend served as a reminder of the social and political risks.

“It is clear that the upcoming heating season will test the resilience of the EU energy market,” the Czech presidency plans to tell member states, according to the draft document for the emergency meeting. “It is critical to take stock of market developments and identify possible measures to address high electricity prices driven by high gas prices.”

So what can Europe do? Nothing really, but it will pretend to be in control until the bitter end. The options the Czech presidency is set to suggest – according to Bloomberg – would complement measures floated by the European Commission in a policy note seen by Bloomberg last week. They included a power-demand reduction and price caps on renewables, nuclear and coal, all of which are of course dead-ends. The presidency is poised to propose similar “solutions” in the power sector and float the following additional tools:

To limit the impact of gas prices on power prices:

  • temporarily capping the price of gas used for electricity generation
  • putting a price ceiling on gas imported from Russia
  • temporary exclusion of power production from gas from merit order and price setting on the electricity market could also be an option

Uhm, someone should tell Europe that since Russia is already barely exporting any “weaponized” gas to Europe to destroy the continental economy, setting a price cap on whatever molecules of gas are left won’t really do anything at all. But this is what happens when Europe is run by absolute idiots.

It gets better: to increase liquidity in the energy market, where virtually nobody trades any more since there is simply no physical with which to hedge financial positions, Europe will propose:

  • an urgent Europe-wide credit line support for market participants faced with very high margin calls
  • capping the limits for margining or automatic price ceiling adjustment
  • temporary suspensions of European power derivatives markets.

In short, Pierre Andurand was not only absolutely spot on when he said the “oil market is completely broken” but now every other commodity market is about to be “regulated” to death. Which means paper prices may soon hit 0 as physical prices approach asymptote (i.e +∞).

The Czech presidency is also set to suggest an even more humiliating and laughable assessment of how the EU could use its “carbon market” to address high electricity prices and ensure a quick deal on a commission proposal earlier this year to sell some permits withdrawn from the market and kept in a special reserve. Such sales – Bloomberg reports – “would boost supply of emission permits, helping lower their prices.” Spoiler alert: they won’t do jack shit.

And in typical European word goulash style, the most hilarious idiocy was as usual saved for last: here it is from Bloomberg.

The planned intervention should be designed in a way to avoid an increase in gas consumption or jeopardize the efforts to cut gas demand. It should be simple to implement and coordinate across the bloc and be consistent with the bloc’s climate goals, the presidency said in the draft document.

Yup “simple to implement”, and this is where laughter breaks out. Why? Because as even Goldman said on Friday, nothing Europe does will lead to lower prices and if anything will send prices much higher. First, we excerpt from Goldman’s Damien Couravlin who explains – once again – why Europe’s “brilliant” plans always works in theory and collapse in practice (full note available to pro subs):

And while Europe’s increasingly cartoonish leaders live in a Never Never land where they sacrifice their populations to freeze so they can continue their pro-Ukraine virtue signaling, here is Goldman explaining why Putin’s response will lead to a “significant rally” in nat gas prices (full note here for pro subs).

end

ITALY/EUROPE

Salvini breaks ranks with the rest of Europe

(zerohedge)

Italy’s Salvini Breaks Ranks: ‘End Energy Sanctions Against Russia Because We Are On Our Knees’

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 04:15 AM

European solidarity continues cracking amid growing protests in different corners of the EU, with citizens angry at the collective policy of “standing up to Russia” in support of Ukraine at all costs. For example, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock days ago openly expressed that she’s committed to support Ukraine “no matter what German voters think.”

But elsewhere, Italy’s League party leader Matteo Salvini, (which the mainstream media consistently dubs as “far-right wing” – though he would describe his party as the government of “good sense”) on Sunday broke ranks with other European leaders who have lately seemed to echo some form of this ‘Ukraine first’ policy.

On Sunday Salvini urged an end to Russia energy sanctions which are only leaving Europeans “on their knees” due to higher energy bills and lack of supply. “Several months have passed and people are paying two, three, even four times more for their bills,” he said in an interview RTL radio. “And after seven months, the war continues and Russian Federation coffers are filling with money.”

He explained that not only are the sanctions not working, but they hit Italy harder. While saying he stands in solidarity with Ukraine, he’s not willing to stick with something obviously counterproductive where the blowback is felt more in Europe, Italy in particular with its soaring energy import prices, and not the intended target of the Putin government.

This was the same message he issued to a gathering of Italy’s political leaders on Lake Como, where he stressed that Russia’s export surplus of $140 billion is the direct result of these backfired sanctions.

“Do we have to defend Ukraine? Yes,” Salvini said. “But I would not want the sanctions to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.” Politico meanwhile noted his coalition is expected to win big in late September national elections

Salvini’s remarks come just weeks before Italians head to the polls on September 25 in a national election in which a right-wing coalition that includes the League is expected to win. His comments could therefore raise concerns about the future government’s resolve against Russia among other EU politicians, especially given one of Salvini’s allies in the coalition, Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni, has vowed to stand firm with NATO on tough measures against Moscow.  

Salvini called for a rethinking of current tactics, but still vowed that if in power his League party won’t stop backing Ukraine. “If we get into government will we change alliances? No. We remain deeply, proudly and firmly rooted in a free and democratic West that opposes war and aggression,” he explained. “But if we adopt an instrument to hurt the aggressor and after seven months of war it has not been hurt, at least considering a change seems legitimate to me.”

“We certainly need a European shield, like during COVID,” Salvini said of collective measures which could be more sensible in lowering energy prices and saving jobs:

“In place of sanctions, which were supposed to hurt the Russians, it would be better to protect the Italians and Europeans with a shield, a parachute,” Salvini said on the stump for the September 25 general election in the northern town of Bolzano.

“The only emergency in this moment are electricity and gas bills. It is serious that one side of politics does not understand this,” he said referring primarily to the center left. “It is a continental and national problem”.

Naturally (and just like is typical in US political discourse), the mere suggestion of backing down from any sanctions currently on the table resulted in his political opponents labeling Salvini essentially a Putin puppet.

Meanwhile, in the UK, where leaders have long demanded the population “sacrifice” for the sake of Ukraine

Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio of the Together for the Future party charged that Salvini’s comments stem ultimately from wanting to “do [Vladimir] Putin a favor.” Di Maio said in a Sunday media interview: “The issue of sanctions is very clear in the Italian right: They don’t have a line,” while at the same time Enrico Letta, the leader of the center-left Democratic Party, quipped: “I don’t think Putin could have said it better.”

But underscoring that the proverbial chickens are about to come home to roost, Reuters on Monday writes in the wake of Salvini’s warnings that “Italy’s net energy import costs are set to more than double this year to nearly 100 billion euros ($99.5 billion), the economy minister said, warning Rome could not spend indefinitely to cushion the blow on the economy.”

end

GREECE/TURKEY

Erdogan at it again: threatens military action against Greece

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Issues Threat Of Military Action Against Greece

SUNDAY, SEP 04, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a thinly veiled threat of military action against fellow NATO member Greece in Saturday comments. Erdogan reiterated the Turkish government accusation that Greece is militarizing islands near Turkey’s post in contravention of a historic treaty and international agreements.

“You occupying the islands doesn’t bind us,” Erdogan said. “When the time comes, we’ll do what’s necessary. As we say, we may come down suddenly one night.” He added: “Look at history, if you go further, the price will be heavy.”

“We have one sentence to Greece: Don’t forget Izmir,” Erdogan said in reference to the 1922 battle which saw Greek forces expelled from the western city. He also more broadly referenced 1919-1922 Greco-Turkish war while provocatively stressing that Greece is “occupying” islands off Turkey.

The fiery words were spoken on the occasion of Turkey’s military unveiling a new prototype of an unmanned fighter jet in the city of Samsun, and further days after Ankara has lodged a formal complaint with NATO headquarters, saying that Greece last month achieved radar lock on its F-16s which had been flying over the Mediterranean.

Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily announced last week that the defense ministry “will send the radar traces and pictures of the Greek harassment of the Turkish jets by the S-300 air defense systems to NATO as well as to all 30 allied countries, according to sources.”

Turkey has also charged that Greek jets have violated its airspace over 250 times in harassing maneuvers. “The ministry also informed that the Greek warplanes violated the Turkish airspace 256 times since the beginning of 2022,” the Hurriyet report said. “In addition, they harassed the Turkish jets 158 times this year, the ministry said. On the sea, the Greek coastal guards violated the Turkish territorial waters 33 times, it added.”

Greece’s foreign ministry has responded by denouncing the “outrageous daily slide” of threats and hostile rhetoric coming out of Ankara. “We will inform our allies and partners on the content of the provocative statements… to make it clear who is setting dynamite to the cohesion of our alliance during a dangerous period,” the foreign ministry statement said.

For years, Turkey, Greece and Cyprus have been at odds over expanding Turkish oil and gas drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is using its occupation of northern Cyprus to say that all waters encircling the island are fair game for its research and drilling vessels.

Other EU members, particularly France, have strongly supported EU-member Cyprus’ condemnation of incursions in its territorial waters. France has even conducted a series of joint exercises with Greece and Cyprus in solidarity. 

END

Tom Luongo

Luongo: There Is ‘More Than A Whiff Of Desperation & Fear” Emanating Across Europe

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

All I hear is that lonesome sound
The Hounds of Winter
They harry me down

– Sting

By a narrow margin Boris Johnson’s clownish Defense Minister Liz Truss will become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. She doesn’t have a lot of time to put together a government lest the U.K. have to suffer through yet another general election.

Truss, by virtue of her full-throated support for Ukraine against Russia, was the choice of those Tories committed to maintaining the UK’s relationship with the US, leaving it nominally more independent from the European Union.

Davos man-child Rishi Sunak, the darling of the Remainers of City of London the true hounds of winter here, failed to overtake Truss in the end. What started as a Davos-style decapitation of Johnson, who rightfully deserves to be jailed for his undermining Russian/Ukrainian peace talks in April, ended with the female version of him in office.

While I’d like to say I’m happy to see Davos lose another major conflict in Europe, empowering the US neoconservatives is not a win here. In the end, the deep ties between the US and UK intelligence and military services won out in the Tory leadership battle.

Again, there are no winners from our perspective, here.

Truss comes in vowing to fix everything, from lowering taxes (good) to dealing with an energy crisis she helped create by leading the charge to sanction Russian energy to hell and back. She’ll deficit spend like she’s supposed to because making peace with Putin or breaking with Davos over developing Scotland’s energy reserves is verboten.

She wants to be thought of as the new Thatcher, but she has neither the support Maggie had nor one-third her talent or smarts.

And she doesn’t have the trust of the London banks, who themselves are now rightfully staring at a black hole thanks to her manifest stupidity and belligerence.

Truss is a typical midwit just smart enough to know who’s giving the orders and how to make them manifest but not smart enough to rise above that. I remind everyone that this is a woman so unqualified for the job she had that she doesn’t know where the borders of Russia and Ukraine are but believes in the ‘territorial integrity of Ukraine.’

Like all good servants of the elites she represents, she was rewarded for her incompetence.

The choice between Truss and Sunak was another classic Hobson’s Choice — continued war with Russia across every vector (Truss) or the surrender of the UK to the EU and the reversing of Brexit (Sunak).

Either way there is not much hope this morning if you are a Brit.

At best she will be an even weaker leader than Johnson was, since she has no issue to rally the country around, like Brexit, which she won’t even discuss in public. This was reflected in the final party leadership vote where 20% of Tories stayed home.

So, even if Truss is able to cobble together a government and presents it to the Queen to rubber stamp, she will do so with the Tories having been thoroughly discredited as a party. Not that Labour is any useful opposition here.

While the old guard of British politics may have won this fight, it is a Pyrrhic victory for them. It’s still a country with no friends as long as Biden is in power.

British politics have been frozen for months because of this ridiculous affair. All it did was extend everyone’s misery as the UK warmongers cling to the vestiges of their former power.

What’s truly sad is that Johnson backed a Hail Mary in Ukraine surrounding the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) that may now have to be considered the British version of the Bay of Pigs, but with far vaster implications.

The massacre that occurred last week was a plan so retarded it reveals the mendacity and desperation of both British Intelligence and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson to escalate the conflict, remain in power and advance their ultimate agenda of weakening global support for Russia at the UN.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces, with significant help from British ‘advisors,’ staged a multi-pronged commando amphibious landing north of the ZNPP.  The goal was to attack it and take it over while the Russian garrison had been mostly removed while awaiting the IAEA inspectors.

The idea being to shame the Russians out of the ZNPP to show that it wasn’t being used as a military staging area and attack it while it was lightly defended. Then… and this is the insane part… take the entire IAEA delegation hostage but doing so POSING AS RUSSIAN TROOPS.

Here’s the link to the plan from Intel Slava Z’s Telegram Channel, of course salt to taste.

The Kremlin was aware of the plans of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take advantage of the arrival of the IAEA mission and carry out an amphibious landing in order to try to seize the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and make statements for days that it was Russian special forces.  Under ideal conditions for the work of the DRG, they calculated the task of taking the mission itself hostage and keeping the nuclear power plant under mines, making demands for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to the territory of Crimea.

Boris Johnson brought the plan of operation and some of the instructors with him as a demobilization chord of his premiership, but if the GUR was successful, he would have refused to transfer power, referring to an international emergency threatening a catastrophe on a planetary scale.  At the moment, 47 DRG fighters have been destroyed, three have been taken prisoner (!), Two are in serious condition between life and death.  A group of 12 people is blocked on three sides and cut off from the water and boats, by 15:00 CTO will be over.  Zelensky’s statement on this situation is expected in the late afternoon, the head of the IAEA Mission has already been notified of the situation, as well as UN Secretary General Guterres.  The operation was coordinated by MI6 officers from their headquarters in the suburbs of Kyiv.

All 64 DRGs have recently completed training in the UK and traveled from Warsaw to Odessa on 29 August.

Now, clearly this is a Russian version of events. But it is backed up by the statements coming from the UN in the aftermath, praising the Russian military for securing the safety of the IAEA inspectors, something they would never have done.

Even if the whole ‘impersonating Russians holding IAEA inspectors hostage’ plan failed, the story is still deeply disturbing, because this type of multi-pronged (5 different invasion points of the area) operation had to have been planned well in advance.

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s version of the story is similar if cleaner, for diplomatic reasons if nothing else. They leave out the ‘impersonating Russians’ part but leave in all of Ukraine’s attempts to insert friendly Western media into the delegation who would then give us the ‘official story’ of what happened.

Moscow has suggested that Kiev’s plan was to capture the nuclear plant and then use the staff of the UN nuclear watchdog as “human shields” to maintain control over it.

What this means is that the Johnson and the US Dept. of Defense/National Security Council (all staffed by the move virulent Neocons) have been planning something like this for months which is why they refuse to allow the Ukrainians to surrender.  

It’s also why the EU/Davos (who clearly want out of this insanity) are throwing Johnson under the bus for blowing up April’s peace talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin keeps tightening the screws on the energy-starved Europeans causing all kinds of havoc there politically.

The timing of his announcement Gazprom was shutting down Nordstream 1 indefinitely while the IAEA inspectors were at the ZNPP is yet another clue to what the real story was. Moreover, note that since this inspection went off without a hitch there was little to no breathless reporting on it.

It vanished from the media as quickly as the prospects for the UK’s economic recovery with the announcement of Truss’ big win.

The Brits under Johnson and Truss have been trying to create a false flag incident to justify official NATO involvement in the Ukraine conflict since the beginning of the war.

The excuse of a multi-country nuclear meltdown incident would more than provide that justification.

This was their big operation to finally turn the entire world against the Russians by saying that in order to suppress the real story at the ZNPP Russia kidnapped peaceful IAEA inspectors and used them as political hostages.  

Because even if Ukrainian forces stormed the plant, do you think the lying British media would tell you a story even remotely pro-Russian?

No. These are the same people who have been trying to convince you that Russia was shelling its own troops there for weeks now.

This may have allowed Neocon-backed Johnson to stay in power through emergency powers and set the precedent for Biden to do the same thing before the mid-terms. Truss’ election as the head of the Tories in the UK ensure this type of insanity will continue uninterrupted because she’s too stupid to see the obvious ploy to discredit both the UK and the US while Europe plays the victim.

Playing through their strategy, any kind of ‘accident’ at ZNPP can be coordinated with a collapse of capital markets as NATO officially gets involved in Ukraine and vast nationalization of whole swaths of the West’s industrial base then ensues.

Thankfully the Russians escorting the IAEA inspectors into the ZNPP and the amphibious assaults vaporized (which they have), this entire disgusting affair ends.  

I bring this up not because I believe the entire story. I don’t. But it is emblematic of the mindset of the people in charge.

There is more than a whiff of desperation and fear emanating from all across Europe, but especially from the UK as they have been brought to the edge of extinction by inept leadership refusing to accede to the reality that not only has the sun finally set on the British Empire, but it’s not likely to rise again anytime soon.

The only hope the UK had was in the US supporting its bid for independence from the EU via Brexit. Once Biden was selected that hope died, minus an Oliver Cromwell moment.

What they got was Liz Truss.

The reason I’m so set on my thesis about the Fed being against Davos is the actions of the UK in this conflict. It was clearly an operation that both the US/UK neocons and the Davos globalists saw common ground in using Ukraine to attack Russia.

Their interests aligned all during the eight year lead up to Russia’s invasion.

They really did believe their own clownish stories about the fragility of Putin’s government, Russia’s economy and the depth of the West’s financial and legal power to extract pain from those that defied them.

Once it became obvious that the economic ‘shock and awe’ campaign to isolate Russia had failed and Putin’s Energy Counter-Offensive began, the cracks in the relationship opened and the power of ‘Outside Money’ — gold, commodities — exposed the weakness of ‘Inside Money.’

The failure of the Biden junta to secure the Fed means that not only did the Davos/Neocon alliance crack but US sovereigntist forces saw the opportunity to take out City of London and Amsterdam in the chaos. Now both the UK and the EU are caught between the Fed draining them dry in the capital markets and the Russians refusing them much needed energy.

When I look at a long-term chart of the British Pound all I see is oblivion.

It’s on pace for the lowest close in history this year. And thanks to Gordon Brown there are no gold reserves left to back the currency nor any new energy sources to stabilize it. It, along with the Canadian dollar are the ultimate form of ‘Inside Money.’

And Inside Money is falling fast, first to the US dollar (USDX knocking on 110 and rising) and then to the broad commodity sector and eventually gold itself.

The Euro chart is worse.

Russia and Putin understand this and all they have to do is continue doing nothing, or more explicitly pumping nothing, and the collapse will finally be complete. All the Fed has to do is stay its course.

So, while City of London thought they were circling the Brexiteers and Russia going for the kill, they were themselves encircled by the real dogs of war.

Maybe Davos wants this collapse. Sure, they talk a good game about Building Back Better and the Great Reset, but they didn’t imagine it would be on someone else’s terms, namely both the Americans’ and the Russians’.

Yes, they are selling the carbon-free future to their people but at what price and with what capital?

Yes, they believe they can consolidate their financial problems in the ECB, a European-style Resolution Trust bad bank, then default through George Soros’ idea of Perpetual Bonds and emerge with a clean balance sheet. But who is going to invest in them ever again after the pain they put everyone through?

Not Russia. Not China. Maybe a weakened US. Europe will be a smoking ruin for decades if this happens.

Putin is not only interested in finally besting Russia’s centuries-old enemy, Britain. He’s also no longer smitten with the ideas of old Europe. If there is to be détente between Europe and Russia it will be on Russia’s terms, not Europe’s.

So far the EU is doubling down on its stupidity because it fits their plan, as stupid as it is, much as I expect Truss to double down on Johnson’s because of legendary British arrogance and stubbornness. Just don’t expect Putin or Powell at the Fed to come to their rescue anytime soon.

Liz Truss is a woman more bloodthirsty than Hillary Clinton with one-tenth of her gravitas. The British people certainly deserve better because no one should be treated to such depravity. She is a band-aid on an open wound festering as the hounds of winter circle in for the kill.

*  *  *

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THE WEST

The big news of the day:  Russia halts all Nordstream 1 gas shipments.  They demand sanctions lifted and then they will resume shipments.

(zerohedge) 

Russia Admits Weaponization Of Gas, Halts NS1 Shipments “Until Sanctions Lifted” As EU Prepares Response To Energy Crisis

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 01:05 PM

Putin is done playing around.

Two days after Russia indefinitely halted nat gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for the amusing reason that there was an “oil leak” (shown below)…

… on Monday Russia finally admitted what everyone has known since February – namely that it has weaponized commodities in response to the West’s weaponization of currencies (as Zoltan Pozsar has said all along),when the Kremlin said that Russia’s gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume in full until the “collective west” lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key pipeline, which delivers gas to Germany from St Petersburg via the Baltic sea.

“The problems pumping gas came about because of the sanctions western countries introduced against our country and several companies,” Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency. “There are no other reasons that could have caused this pumping problem.”

Peskov’s comments were the most stark demand yet by the Kremlin that the EU roll back its sanctions in exchange for Russia resuming gas deliveries to the continent. It also confirms that Russia no longer needs to pretend it needs to export commodities to Europe – after all it has more than enough demand in China and India – and is willing to give Europe just enough to rope to… well, you know the rest.

On Friday, Gazprom said it would halt gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault, which it blamed on difficulties repairing German-made turbines in Canada. We now know that was a strawman; and in the latest confirmation of who has the upper hand in the ongoing commodity feud, the EU had already rolled back some sanctions against Russia explicitly to allow the turbines to be repaired. European leaders have said there is nothing to prevent Gazprom from supplying the continent with gas and had accused Russia of “weaponising” its energy exports.

Meanwhile, as we reported over the weekend, Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine that have remained open despite the invasion, as well as the South Stream pipeline via Turkey. And in an ironic twist, the head of the Ukraine gas transit operator told Reuters that Ukraine could “technically” substitute full capacity of Nord Stream 1 via Ukraine’s Sudzha entry point.  In other words, Europe would pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine…

Of course, nothing in today’s “news” should come as a surprise: Russian officials have made little secret of their hope that the growing energy crisis in Europe will sap the bloc’s support for Ukraine. “Obviously life is getting worse for people, businessmen, and companies in Europe,” Peskov said. “Of course, ordinary people in these countries will have more and more questions for their leaders.”

One not so ordinary person was Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-right League party, who said that Western sanctions against Russia are not working and actually harm Italy, and suggesting allied countries should reconsider their approach. Speaking at a conference of political leaders Sunday on Lake Como, Salvini claimed the sanctions meant to punish Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine had in fact helped Russia, resulting in an export surplus of $140 billion, during the year ending July 2022. “Do we have to defend Ukraine? Yes,” Salvini said. “But I would not want the sanctions to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev was even more explicit than Peskov, and after German chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a €65bn aid package on Sunday to soften the blow of soaring energy bills, Medvedev, now deputy chair of Russia’s security council, said Germany was “acting as an enemy of Russia” by supporting sanctions against Moscow and supplying Ukraine with weapons. “They have declared hybrid war against Russia,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram. “And this old man acts surprised that the Germans have some little problems with gas.”

Of course, with neither side willing to ease back on its approach, moments after Russia’s comments, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, twitted that “Putin is using energy as a weapon by cutting supply and manipulating our energy markets”, which of course he is doing in response to the west’s weaponization of currencies and capital flows.

Adding that “He will fail. Europe will prevail”, Van Der Leyen confirmed what we reported yesterday, namely that “the @EU_Commission is preparing proposals to help vulnerable households and businesses to cope with high energy prices” and aims to:

  • Reduce electricity demand (peaks)
  • Price cap on Russian pipeline gas
  • Help vulnerable consumers & businesses with revenue from the energy sector
  • Enable support to electricity producers facing liquidity challenges linked to volatility

Will it work? Of course not, because Russia will never agree to sell to those imposing price caps (especially since China and India will never join), while ordinary Europeans will never agree to voluntarily sacrifice their own comfort without the knowledge that everyone else is also sharing in the burden. Which is why the announcement by French president Macron, calling for 10% reduction in country’s energy use to avoid rationing and cuts this winter, will achieve nothing at all and Europe will have no choice but to ration in a few months as the winter freeze arrives.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES/

Please note that we are now witnessing rare diseases surfacing.  Argentina notes an aggressive pneumonia deaths.  The reason: the vaccines caused people to have less immunity

(zerohedge)

Argentine Health Officials Link “Aggressive” Pneumonia Deaths To Legionnaires’ Disease

SUNDAY, SEP 04, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Argentine health officials announced on Saturday that a pneumonia of previously unknown origin has been linked to Legionnaires’ disease – a rare bacterial infection of the lungs, after four people in a clinic in northwestern Tucuman province died. Seven others are currently infected.

The cases have been linked to a single private clinic in the northwestern city of San Miguel de Tucumán, according to the WHO’s regional office, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).

Health Minister Carla Vizzotti told reporters in a Saturday statement that Legionnaires’ had been identified as the cause of double pneumonia in the four who died after the rare bacterial infection was initially ruled out, according to a Friday report by Reuters.

On Tuesday, five health care workers and a patient who required intensive care were reported with pneumonia of unknown origin. Their symptoms emerged between Aug. 18 – 22.

Then on Thursday, three more cases were reported by local health officials, bringing the total number to nine, and on Friday and Saturday Argentina reported the 10th and 11th cases.

The most recent death was that of a 48-year-old man with underlying health problems, which followed a 70-year-old woman who had undergone surgery in the clinic.

In total, 11 cases have been identified – nearly all involving clinic staff according to provincial officials. Of the seven under care, “four remain hospitalized, three of them under respiratory assistance, and three are under home surveillance, with less complicated clinical symptoms,” said provincial health minister Luis Medina Ruiz on Saturday, who added that “toxic and environmental causes” could not be ruled out – and that the clinic’s climate control systems were being checked.

Reported symptoms include fever, muscle and abdominal pain and shortness of breath, with several patients experiencing pneumonia in both lungs.

The disease first appeared in 1976 at a meeting of the American Legion veterans group in Philadelphia, PA, and was linked to contaminated water or unclean air conditioning systems.

When the outbreak first appeared in Tucumán, officials first tested for Covied-19, flu and hantavirus, ruling them all out. Samples were then analyzed by the Malbran Institute in Buenos Aires, which pointed to Legionnaires’.

Paul Alexander..

CATASTROPHIC COVID vaccination in US on ALL-CAUSE (‘excess’) mortality: “COVID-19 vaccination campaign did not reduce all-cause mortality during COVID. No deaths averted due to mass vaccination USA

Rancourt: The mass vaccination campaign was not justified in terms of reducing excess all-cause mortality; this tells us that excess deaths can be explained by lockdowns and the COVID vaccine itself

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 2

The argument I am making is that lockdowns and closures contributed (due to denied and delayed treatment, cancelling of elective surgeries and medical care, collateral damage of suicides in business owners, laid off workers, adults and children societally etc.) to the excess mortality across the entire pandemic period in the USA, outside of the impact of the mandated COVID vaccination program that this study looked at. The latter is a critical argument being made that is being studied yet the lockdowns can explain the excess deaths throughout the examination period, as the COVID vaccine itself caused harms and deaths.

We are clearly seeing this pattern across Europe and globally especially among younger age groups e.g. 25 to 55 years old where there is a surge in deaths after each administered COVID vaccine dose e.g. dose 1, 2, 3, and 4, particularly the boosters (3 and 4). When the virus abated and thus infections and deaths declined from virus, we were expecting that the excess mortality trends would be a declining one. We instead saw excess mortality remaining elevated and this was concerning and can be accounted for by the impact of the vaccine itself. We definitely see a surge in deaths across nations that track tightly with the vaccine roll out and with each administered dose. We even argue that there is immediate death post vaccine e.g. within the first 2 weeks and Kirsh argues for a 5 month delay and I argue a 6 month delay in death in some vaccinees post dose that accumulates.

end

Open in browserURGENT: over 1,000 Reports of Adverse Events After COVID-19 Vaccination in Children 5 and Younger, CDC Data Shows; & Why did Deaths among Female Children increase by 57% immediately after COVID shot?
Deaths in Female Children increased by 57% immediately after COVID injection, why?
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 5
SOURCE:More Than 1,000 Reports of Adverse Events After COVID-19 Vaccination in Children 5 and Younger, CDC Data Shows
S
Open in browserCDC changed it’s complete guidance on the COVID gene injection given that they realized the public was on to them & know they were fraudsters & openly lying; the third line is completely removed, why?
See if you can find the third bullet now in their guidance.
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 2
The third bullet below (and in the box above) is completely removed now from CDC site and you must ask yourself why, how come it took so long for this to be removed when we were giving the CDC the data all along that the vaccine was unsafe and what they said was wrong. How come? The issue is that the CDC knows and knew damn well they were lying and that the cells do not break down mRNA and get rid of it in days, no, we have research we gave the CDC showing it (mRNA) remains. They also knew the spike protein does not stay in our bodies for weeks, it stays for months and we argue forever as the studies only ran for months. If it ran for 5 years you will find spike for 5 years. Your immune response will never ever be switched off post vaccine and this will lead to immune exhaustion and many serious side effects.This is now completely removed by CDC from the website because they knew and know it was never true and the science is clear; they know serious litigation is coming:The mRNA and the spike protein do not last long in the bodyOur cells break down mRNA from these vaccines and get rid of it within a few days after vaccination.Scientists estimate that the spike protein, like other proteins our bodies create, may stay in the body up to a few weeks.
END
Open in browserYamamoto et al.: “Persistent varicella zoster virus infection following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the presence of encoded spike protein in the lesion”; means mRNA & spike remains!
CDC, NIH, FDA lied to you! They are devastating liars and this is why the CDC recently removed the lies from it’s website (see substack below) that the mRNA & spike does not remain in your body
Dr. Paul Alexander
Sep 3

Before you read this report, I must again state that these COVID gene injections that have been shown to be ineffective and harmful, MUST be stopped for everyone! None in children! The mRNA gene platform injection was and is very harmful, devastating. Something is not right with it and the vaccine makers did not conduct the studies for the proper duration so as to exclude harms. The FDA failed us. All of these people must be investigated and jailed if we show deliberate or reckless wrong! Too many have died as a result. Start with Fauci, Francis Collins, Bourla, and Bancel.Case report findings:“mRNA COVID-19 vaccination might induce persistent VZV reactivation through perturbing the immune system, although it remained elusive whether the expressed spike protein played a pathogenic role.Conclusion: We presented a case of persistent varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection (causes chickenpox) following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and the presence of spike protein in the affected skin. Further vigilance of the vaccine side effect and investigation for the role of SP is warranted.”
“The detected SP in the affected skin in our patient has never been described before. Indeed, the vesicular keratinocytes and the underlying dermal endothelial cells in the vesicle lesion expressed the SP. In addition, the SP was also found in the endothelial cells in the vasculitis lesion. Although the pathogenic role of the SP in the lesion remained unclear, a plausible hypothesis was that the stabilization of RNA by substituting methyl-pseudouridine for all the uridine nucleotides for BNT162b2 might result in long-time pro-duction of the encoded SP from any cells, persistently affecting the microenvironment for the protective immune system including the skin.”This statement above is critical for it is the substitution of pseudouridine for uridine nucleotides that we have written about extensively in prior substacks. Helped stabilize the LNP complex (with PEG) and the mRNA genome and helped hide it (mRNA) from the body’s immune system.You read this disturbing study below for it shows you what I and other scientists who are fighting the COVID vaccine fraud lies have been saying, that the mRNA and spike protein remains in you maybe even life-long. There is no ‘off switch’. The mRNA does not work as a ‘one-off’ and dissolved by cellular enzymes (RNAses) soon after the spike is translated. The mRNA remains churning out spike protein and the spike is going all over the body and is catastrophic to the blood brain barrier and the blood lung barrier. We have seen by the Patterson group of spike 16 months post infection and the CELL Roltgen study showed us spike in the body 2 months post injection.SOURCE:
Persistent varicella zoster virus infection following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the presence of encoded spike protein in the lesion

Open in browser

“More Than 400 Studies on the Failure of Compulsory Covid Interventions (Lockdowns, school closures, shelter-in-place, shielding, business closures etc.)”; BROWNSTONE, Dr. Paul Elias Alexander

The great body of evidence (comparative research studies and high-quality pieces of evidence and reporting judged to be relevant to this analysis) shows that COVID-19 lockdowns all failed, complete!

Dr. Paul Alexander

Sep 3

SOURCE:

More Than 400 Studies on the Failure of Compulsory Covid Interventions (Lockdowns, Restrictions, Closures)

Vaccine Impact//

Pediatric Cardiologist: COVID Vaccines are Damaging the Hearts of Children and Young People

September 2, 2022 1:57 pm

Kirk Milhoan is a pediatrician and board certified pediatric cardiologist for over 20 years. He has a PhD in cardiovascular physiology and pharmacology. His dissertation from the University of California in San Diego looked at the patho-physiology of the inflammation associated with myocardial ischemia. You would be hard-pressed to find someone more credentialed and experienced in heart disease in children and young people than Dr. Milhoan, who has just given, by far, the best presentation on how the COVID vaccines and spike protein are affecting the hearts of these young people, based on numerous studies now conducted and published all over the world. This is a MUST VIEW video! It is, by far, the best presentation on this issue I have seen so far, because he brings in the data from all the recent studies conducted around the world on the effects of the COVID vaccines on hearts. And the verdict is in: COVID vaccines are cardio-toxic! They have caused more cases of myocarditis and pericarditis that all previous vaccines COMBINED!

Read More…


America’s Secret Government by Proxy

September 2, 2022 5:53 pm

Security state agencies must justify their existence. There are 1,271 counterterrorist, homeland security, and intelligence organizations; 1,931 private sector analogues; 10,000 locations of these organizations; and ~854,000 people with top-secret security clearances as of 2010. To make matters worse, the line between private and public is obscure in this industry. Naturally, the need to justify the existence of government—propaganda—evolves into techniques to disseminate that propaganda in addition to censoring opposition to it. Therefore, a proxy government is established—a front for the actual government to do what it wants to do but otherwise cannot. The US government has incentivized a group of organizations to do just that. “Big tech censorship” and other control measures were not the result of free-market phenomena. The think tanks that refer to themselves as “counter-violent extremists” (CVEs) are America’s proxy government responsible for censoring, shadow banning, ad feed tampering, search result manipulation, and “racism/extremism” deception.

Read More…

Darker and Colder: Europeans Warned of ‘Unprecedented’ Power Failures This Winter as Russia Cuts Off Natural Gas PipelineSeptember 3, 2022 4:56 pm
Europeans are being warned of ‘unprecedented’ power failures this winter as the energy crisis brings a foreseeable future that will be colder and darker. “There is an increased risk of a lack of power this winter,” Klaus Winther, deputy director at Energinet, the Danish national transmission system operator for electricity and natural gas, told TV2. After a 3-day halt, Russian energy giant Gazprom was expected to resume critical supplies of nat gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1 tomorrow, but it appears that Putin who is enjoying the game of cat and mouse a little too much, had other plans and as a result, Russian gas flows toward Europe won’t be coming back any time soon, as moments ago Gazprom announced that it had “completely halted” transport of gas to Nord Stream until a previously undetected oil leakage is rectified. That could takes hours, days… or months. The “shocking development” is a massive blow to Europe, which is scrambling to fill up its gas storage ahead of winter and which has been trying to guess Moscow’s next steps in the energy war for weeks. As Bloomberg puts it, “it marks a dramatic escalation in Europe’s energy crisis — and comes just as prices were easing. If the shutdown persists, it puts households, factories and economies at risk, weakening Europe’s hand as it backs Ukraine in the war against Russia.” Said otherwise, millions of virtue signalers will be cold, hungry and in the dark this winter but at least they will have an Ukraine flag in their twitter bio.
Read More…Physician List & Guide to Home-Based COVID TreatmentSeptember 3, 2022 5:08 pm
Since 1943, AAPS has been dedicated to the highest ethical standards of the Oath of Hippocrates and to preserving the sanctity of the patient-physician relationship and the practice of private medicine. They offer a free patient guide on early treatments, and a list of physicians who provide early treatments for COVID through private medicine.Read More…Following the Science? – 159 Children dead, 1.2k disabled, 14.5k hospitalised & 55k injured due to COVID Vaccination in the USA according to CDCSeptember 5, 2022 5:38 pm
The latest figures published by the USA’s Centers for Disease Control reveal over 56,000 children have been injured due to Covid-19 vaccination across the USA, and sadly 1,174 of these children either suffered a life-threatening event or a permanent disability, while tragically a further 159 children sadly lost their lives.
Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

WHO: Disease outbreak mystery as 2 die from unexplained pneumonia of ‘unknown origin’; MYSTERIOUS new outbreak could be on the way, pneumonia of “unknown origin”; they are pulling out all stops!

Speaking of the latest person to die from the illness, the ministry said in a statement: “This is a 45-year-old male patient with comorbidities who had been hospitalized

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 3

SOURCE:

Disease outbreak mystery as two die from unexplained pneumonia of ‘unknown origin’

“So far, a total of six patients in Argentina have undergone testing after being struck by a mystery illness, as three patients are currently still hospitalized. Tests ruled out the presence of most common infections, like COVID-19, sparking concerns of a new disease outbreak. Health officials on Wednesday announced that two people in northwest Argentina died this week from a form of severe pneumonia of “unknown origin”.

end

Canada Govt DELETES 1,973 Adverse Events Of Special Interest: Myocarditis, Paralysis & More

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:41 AM (18 minutes ago)
to

No surprise
https://www.bitchute.com/video/R7xC3i24i98h/

BOOM! Candace Owens, boy oh boy! Gonads of all men in congress; Every time she punishes the filth in our society, she backs it up with another potent clarification; I mean, it cannot be any clearer!

“You will pay”! I just love it! We have to ensure all, every single one who did wrong in COVID, must pay…I PROMISE YOU, we will never stop until we investigate them all! proper legal inquiries!

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 5

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“Putin Has Pushed Europe Into An Inflationary Depression And Currency Collapse”

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 09:27 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Truss-itory” Inflation and Soviet Planning

With US markets closed yesterday for Labor Day all the action was in Europe – and given that Nord Stream 1 had been shuttered and the European Commission had floated war economy style regulations, and Russia then made clear that unless sanctions on it are dropped, no gas will *ever* flow through Nord Stream 1 again, it was no wonder Eurostoxx were down and EUR dipped below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years, as the Dollar wrecking ball momentum continued. (Forcing China to slash banks’ FX reserve requirement ratios from 8% to 6%, which won’t do anything to stop the ongoing slide in CNY for long, sitting at 6.9340 at time of writing this morning in Asia.)

Benchmark Dutch TTF gas was up hugely at first before closing ‘only’ 17% higher on open recognition that while much bad news is now priced in, Europe is really in the economic war I have been warning of.

As pointed out on Twitter, Russia’s move is so blatant there is no way Europe can fudge an agreement with it the way some might have over ‘technical issues’ with the pipeline. (As was Russian President Putin also approving a new foreign policy doctrine backing a “Russian world” covering all Russian speakers, including some in the EU, while building up relations with all the countries the USSR was friendly with to boot.) This is a gun to the EU’s head. So was OPEC+ agreeing on a token 100,000 barrel a day cut to production. So was Iran saying no to the nuclear deal unless the IAEA backs off from investigating the serious breaches of the last nuclear deal it didn’t stick to.

Assuming Europe cannot retreat, that means a severe recession with very high inflation, and if anything were to happen to gas flows via Ukraine, which could easily occur, Europe would need to make swinging cuts to demand in order to avoid unplanned ‘gas outs’. German Economy Minister Habeck just said: “Expect the worst.” As mentioned yesterday, existential choices now need to be made, because there may not enough energy to go round. The choices are obviously unappetizing.

First, Germany is to delay mothballing some nuclear reactors – so common sense at gunpoint.  

Yet Europe and the UK will not ration energy by price because it means the staggering bills already being seen, and then stagflation, incession, or ‘inpression’ (an inflationary depression). They will instead subsidize businesses and households even if that means wholesale energy prices march even higher. Germany’s latest EUR65bn energy bailout will do just that; so will Sweden’s and the Netherlands’ measures, and France’s and Spain’s: and Brussels is talking about an EU-wide energy price cap. Only part of these subsidies will flow from windfall taxes (which also remove the industry capital needed to invest in new energy supply). New UK PM Truss, just selected with an underwhelming 57% mandate of a tiny Tory electorate, has also floated Covid-furlough sized spending to cap business and household energy bills; and huge tax cuts; and a 2.5% trend GDP growth rate target. Good luck with the latter.

Borrowing or printing money to pay for imported energy (in dollars), while running rising twin deficits is a great way to destroy one’s currency – which means ‘Truss-itory’ inflation, not transitory. So, we must then ration by diktat: but how?

  • By sector: households or industry? Households freeze and vote. But industry employs households – or doesn’t. (As California tells its drivers who bought EVs to go green that they can’t now charge them because of grid power shortages.)
  • By industrial energy intensity and shut the ‘sinners’ down? But that ignores the value-chain impact on GDP and employment (i.e., no x, then no y, and if no y, so no z, etc.)
  • By industry in terms of external realpolitik, i.e., the sectors that produce defence-related goods come first?
  • By industry in terms of internal realpolitik? i.e., the sectors that employ the most people come first?
  • By industry for equity? i.,e., all sectors take the same cuts so there can be no favouritism, even if this is totally inefficient?

These are the kind of questions Soviet planned economies asked daily – and got wrong because they had no pricing mechanisms, interest rates, fully-fungible money, external trade, or business/consumer feedback mechanisms like the media or elections. And they all wanted to arm themselves to the teeth for the struggle against US imperialism of course.

This is not a joke.. This is not a blast from the past. This is not an abstract exercise. This is a thought process undoubtedly already underway at the highest levels of some governments, or which I hope to goodness already is. As I have alluded to before, I also hope someone from the army engineers is nearby to help steer the discussion away from the silliness of traditional economics and GDP by demand and towards a national security focused GDP by supply.

Indeed, we also need to invest in the supply side, not just cut it back. Without that, we remain trapped in this purgatory. Will the private sector do it? If they could, they would have, but they didn’t. Now they have windfall taxes too. That is why the European Commission is getting ready to tell them to do so. Presumably with state capital and printed money. Or the state can just do it directly.

But what to invest in? One has to use the same thought process as for rationing, but in reverse. Do we want output for households or industry? Both need energy now. Do we plan energy from ‘sinful’ or ‘sin free’ sources? (As California tells its drivers who bought EVs to go green that they can’t now charge them because of grid power shortages.) But do we look at the crossovers? (i.e., you need sulphuric acid to extract ‘green’ metals like lithium; and you need fossil fuels to produce sulphuric acid; and you need fossil fuels to produce many renewables to some degree…. but the army engineering corps know all this.) Do we look at the downstream value-chain impact on GDP and employment? Do we look at the goods needed for external realpolitik? Do we look at lobbyists and internal realpolitik? Do we just aim for equity?

The Soviet planners had to juggle such output decisions daily – and usually got them wrong because they had no pricing mechanisms, interest rates, fully-fungible money, external trade, or business/consumer feedback mechanisms like the media or elections. And they all wanted to arm themselves to the teeth for the struggle against US imperialism of course.

If you have enjoyed a nice market career forecasting GDP by demand and making macro forecasts within traditional parameters on the back of it, I’m happy for you: what are you planning to do now that skillset becomes that of a Soviet apparatchik after 1991? Get with the plan, and get with the planning – and with the US imperialism!

Yes, we all know how badly governments plan. To which I say: have you met the private sector? And what do we do when the things we need most don’t make money, or won’t do so for decades? Yes, I know that doesn’t stop Silicon Valley – but they have the promise of being monopolists one day, or just selling out early to a greater fool or an existing monopolist.   

The central bank all of this is in focus for today, or rather is all a big blur for, is the RBA. The market expectation is that they will hike another 50bps again to take their overnight cash rate to 2.35%; and they still have another three meetings this year. Just weeks ago, the Reserve Bank was trying to peddle the view that the rates peak would be around 3%. The market rightly now sees 4% is far more sensible. Painful as that will be, Australia (where I was just called a “provocateur”, which is a badge I will wear with pride!) is still vastly better off than the UK or Europe. They have summer coming up when we have winter, for one. And they have stuff, even if they also have no planning.

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Saudi Arabia agrees on a 100,000 barrel production cut

(zerohedge)

From Fist-Bump To Fisted: Oil Surges After OPEC+ Agrees On 100Kb/d Production Cut

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 11:43 AM

And there it is: the half life of the infamous fist bump proved to be less than two months, with a delegate telling Reuters that OPEC+ has agreed to a 100kb/d reduction in oil output for October.

The small cut would reverse the 100,000 barrels a day that OPEC+ said it would add to the market last month after President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter.

… just as we predicted.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas summed up the situation succinctly (in case you hear US Treasury Secretary Yellen continuing to crow about their progress):

* * *

The much-anticipated OPEC+ meeting later on Monday has all options on the table for oil, Bloomberg’s Nour Al Ali writes, adding that whatever the decision is on production in October, the alliance has the upper hand, which is bullish for the oil futures market. 

A delegate has told Bloomberg that OPEC+ will discuss a range of oil-policy options at Monday’s meeting including a 100k b/d output cut – reversing last month’s just as symbolic output hike following Biden’s begging for more oil. Other options include maintaining production at current levels as well as an output cut before the next month’s meeting.  

That much appears to be priced into futures markets, which remained about 2.7% higher at around the $95-level in Brent crude futures.

As Al Ali reminds us, we know from Saudi Arabia, that perhaps oil at current levels isn’t a fair reflection of the physical market’s tightness. Historically, the leader of the alliance is known to view prices at around $100 as fair. 

Meanwhile, disruptions to global oil supply remain key. As the EU discusses a price cap on Russian oil, many members of the 23-nation alliance struggle to increase their output due to various reasons, and the outcome of a potential Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain. Technical experts at OPEC+ recently slashed forecasts for this year’s supply surplus in half, to 400,000 barrels a day, and expect a supply deficit in 2023. 

Finally, as volatility picks up, the futures market (which is now “completely broken” according to oil trader Pierre Andruand) poses a conundrum for the alliance. Even as bearish factors such as a looming global economic slowdown and reduced demand out of China push prices lower, the European energy crisis puts the alliance back in the driver’s seat as an oil-for-gas substitution might be needed to keep the continent warm this winter.

Here’s what else to expect from today’s OPEC+ meeting which takes place as the US is out on vacation.

Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a full preview of today’s JMMC and OPEC+ due at 12:00 BST

SCHEDULE: On September 5th, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will review the findings of the JTC and make a recommendation to the decision-making OPEC+ group. The JMMC is set to meet at 12:00BST/07:00EDT, with the OPEC+ ministerial meeting guided around 12:30BST/07:30EDT.

PRIOR MEETING: On August 3rd, OPEC+ agreed to hike total September quotas by 100k BPD. Split among most members, Saudi Arabia’s share was increased by 30k BPD, and the UAE’s by 7k BPD. The White House welcomed the decision, since it eases some pressure on Washington in the short term at least; the US Energy Department said at the time that it has seen a remarkable decline in oil prices, and wanted even lower prices.

LATEST SOURCES:

  • Sources briefed on Saudi’s thinking says Saudi has not yet made a decision to tweak OPEC+ policy, but the energy minister is under pressure to keep prices near USD 100/bbl, FT reported: but the range of complicating factors could make the Kingdom opt for a pause.
  • Russia doesn’t currently support an oil output cut and OPEC+ is likely to keep its output steady when it meets Monday, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ. Russia is said to be concerned that production cut would signal crude supply is outgripping demand, thus reducing leverage will oil consuming nations.
  • Reuters sources said OPEC+ is to weigh a rollover or small cut at its meeting on Monday Two out of five sources said the group could weigh a small cut of 100k BPD to bring quotas back to August levels. Five sources said existing policy could be rolled over.

RECENT SOURCES:

  • OPEC+ is reportedly not currently discussing the possibility of reducing oil production, and one source says it is too early to talk about reduction, according to TASS; note: this quote has subsequently been withdrawn from the article, without an explanation yet provided.
  • Reuters sources said OPEC+ might lean towards an oil output reduction when and if Iranian production returns, whilst warnings cuts may not be imminent. (23rd Aug)
  • WSJ reported Saudi Arabia and its allies are open to oil-output cuts to keep prices high, and the comments from the Saudi Energy Minister have been backed by some OPEC members, such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Algeria for now. (23rd Aug)
  • Five OPEC+ sources told Argus that a formal proposal to reduce production was not on the table, but another said cuts were possible “if needed”. (24th Aug)
  • Saudi Arabia and UAE could pump significantly more oil in the case of a winter crisis, but would only do so if supply worsened, according to Reuters; sources said OPEC members possess around 2.0-2.7mln BPD of spare capacity. (4th Aug)

NOTABLE COMMENTARY:

  • Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ may need to tighten output to stabilise the market and that the oil futures “disconnect” may force OPEC+ action. Furthermore, he stated OPEC+ will soon start work on a new accord for post-2022 and has the means to deal with market challenges including cutting production at any time and in different forms, while he also stated that the oil market is overlooking limited spare capacity and faces extreme volatility amid low liquidity, according to Bloomberg. (22nd Aug)
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russian oil producers support an extension of the OPEC+ deal after 2022. Russia and partners will discuss an extension in October.
  • UAE is supportive of the latest statement from Saudi Arabia on crude markets, according to Reuters citing sources. (26th Aug)
  • Iraq supports the statement from the Saudi oil minister on extreme volatility within oil markets and believes the OPEC alliance will take all necessary measures to achieve market balance, Bloombergsaid. Iraq said thin liquidity and extreme fluctuations in oil futures markets lead to prices being far from fundamentals, and OPEC has several tools to combat market fluctuations, due to discrepancies between futures and spot markets. (24th Aug)
  • OPEC President (Congo) said he is open to an oil production cut, according to WSJ. (25th Aug).
  • Algeria said it’s ready to balance oil market with OPEC+ partners; concerned about elevated oil price volatility which does not reflect a major change in fundamentals. (24th Aug)
  • US State Department says conversations will continue with OPEC+ and other partners. (22nd Aug)
  • Russia’s Gazprom CEO called for the OPEC+ deal to be extended, and geopolitics are behind high oil prices and OPEC+ is not to blame for it. (30th Aug)
  • OPEC Secretary General said fears of a Chinese slowdown have been taken out of proportion, “relatively optimistic” on the 2023 oil outlook. OPEC Sec Gen says he sees a likelihood of an oil-supply squeeze this year, open to dialogue with the US. Still bullish on oil demand for 2022. Too soon to call the outcome of the September 5th gathering. (17th Aug)

JTC FINDINGS: The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC), under a revised analysis due to underproduction by members, cut its 2022 surplus forecast by half to 400k BPD and flipped the forecast for 2023 to a deficit of 300k BPD. Assuming producers hit their quotas, the JTC sees the 2022 oil market surplus at 900k BPD, +100k BPD from the prior report; it also acknowledged the relevance of the Saudi Energy Minister’s comments on volatility and thin liquidity of crude markets, according to Reuters.

FACTORS IN PLAY

IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL:

The Iranian Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has been in a state of limbo following a string of unsuccessful negotiations between members, namely Tehran and Washington – who have resisted making concessions up until recently (a recent Newsquawk analysis can be found here). The Biden administration has attempted to revive the deal to bring energy prices down as the West shuns Russia’s oil and gas. In March 2022, the Iranian oil minister was cited saying Iranian oil production capacity can reach its maximum less than two months after a nuclear deal is reached. Iran pumped an average of 2.4mln BPD in 2021 and plans to increase output to 3.8mln BPD if sanctions are lifted, with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) chief also suggesting the possibility of over 4mln BPD by year-end. More recently, on August 31st, the EU’s foreign policy chief said on he was hopeful the Iran nuclear deal could be revived “in the coming days” after receiving “reasonable” responses from Tehran and Washington to his proposed text.

SPARE CAPACITY:

OPEC+ is burdened with limited spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE the members with the most output power left. As a reminder, the IEA estimates Saudi has a short-order capacity (reachable in less than 90 days) of around 1.2mln BPD, with the longer-term capacity predicted to be nearer to 2.1mln BPD. The argument OPEC watchers have been flagging is the state of confidence within the group (to stabilise the oil market) if they have no spare capacity, with oil traders warning of a potential upward spiral in oil prices if this “worst case” scenario was to occur.

GLOBAL GROWTH:

The COVID situation in China remains a headwind for global growth and overall demand. Several Chinese cities have tightened restrictions in recent days, with the latest major update being the Chinese metropolis of Chengdu, which will affect 21mln residents – this is China’s largest city-wide lockdown since Shanghai in June. Furthermore, Moody’s became the latest agency to downgrade its global economic growth forecast – “the risk of further energy shocks remains high. As for monetary policy, it will be tricky for central banks to navigate to an equilibrium where inflation falls but economic activity does not slip into a deep recession. China’s low tolerance for COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in its property sector pose risks to its growth outlook,” Moody’s said.

EU ENERGY MEETING:

The holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, the Czech Republic, has called for an emergency energy meeting on September 9th in Brussels to discuss a broader solution to the rise in energy markets. “The main task… is to separate the price of electricity from the price of gas, and thus prevent Putin from dictating to Europe prices of electricity with his shenanigans with gas supplies,” the Czech Industry Minister said. Power prices have been on an exponential rise in recent weeks, with French and German contracts breaching both EUR 1,000/MWh (note: natural gas prices have seen some pull-back recently after EU officials pledged to take action). The Czech Industry Minister expects draft proposals next week. One-fifth of European electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants. A Commission official also said the EU is looking at energy price caps as well as options for lowering electricity demand, including looking at windfall taxes in the context of high energy prices.

OIL PRICES & MARKET SHARE:

Oil prices have been volatile since OPEC’s last meeting, and somewhat unstable with Brent in a USD 15/bbl range. The Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ seeks to calm a “yo-yo” oil market that he views as a threat to energy security and the global economy. Some have also suggested the Saudi commentary indicates an “OPEC put”, i.e., a price floor – however, his comments were seemingly more related to volatility. Meanwhile, IEA’s Birol said a further strategic petroleum reserve release is not off the table, and Russian oil production has not fallen as much as previously expected.

Amid the shunning of Russian energy from the West, market share has been rejigged, with some Asian nations upping imports of Russian crude (see figure below via S&P Global). There have also been reports that Russia is mulling oil discounts of up to 30% with Asian nations in response to the price-cap push, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s SOMO said it can redirect more crude oil exports to Europe if needed, according to Reuters citing a SOMO source. SOMO began exports to Europe in June and said Iraq has adjusted export flows as a result of increased competition in Asian markets.

END

European natural gas prices soar after Moscow tightens the screws on supplies via Nordstream no 1

(zerohedge)

European NatGas Prices Soar As Moscow Tightens Screw On Supplies Via Nord Stream

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 11:00 AM

News that Russia’s energy giant Gazprom PJSC halted Nord Stream 1 pipeline flows to Europe sent natural gas prices soaring. European governments are preparing for a worsening energy crisis and the increasing probability of rationing.

Benchmark EU NatGas futures jumped as much as 35%, and electricity prices across the bloc soared. The unexpected cutoff also sent European equities into a downward spiral — the euro hit a two-decade low. 

Gazprom decided on late Friday not to restart the Nord Stream pipeline after three days of maintenance due to an oil leak detected at a turbine that helps pump NatGas. Traders are left with many uncertainties, such as no timeline on when Russia restarts the pipeline. 

Europe’s politicians are now rushing to pass additional emergency measures: Sweden and Finland will support struggling utilities with collateral requirements, a move to prevent a “Lehman-style” bust. Energy ministers from across the bloc will hold a meeting at the end of the week to discuss NatGas price caps and a suspension of power derivatives trading.

Moscow’s move will spark continued energy hyperinflation across Europe that will pressure households deeper into energy poverty — triggering even more discontent. Tens of thousands of Czechs protested in Prague this past weekend against European sanctions on Russia that have backfired, resulting in a cost-of-living crisis for ordinary people. 

“Obviously, life is getting worse for people, businessmen, and companies in Europe,” said Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman. He added, “Of course, ordinary people in these countries will have more and more questions for their leaders.” 

Peskov’s comments are the starkest yet by the Kremlin that the EU must roll back sanctions in exchange for Russian NatGas, or it’s going to be a very tough winter for the energy-stricken continent. 

And the deputy chair of Russia’s security council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Berlin was “acting as an enemy of Russia” by supporting sanctions against Moscow and arming Ukrainians. “They have declared hybrid war against Russia … this old man acts surprised that the Germans have some little problems with gas,” he said. 

Even though the EU has been rapidly building up NatGas stockpiles, those reserves could be drained during the heating season in a matter of months. 

“Given the gas supply tightness, one cannot exclude mandatory gas curtailment for non-essential industries or even’ rolling gasouts’ this winter depending on the weather,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note. 

Joachim Klement, head of the strategy, accounting, and sustainability at Liberum Capital, believes “the end of Russian gas deliveries to Europe mean that the German economy as well as the eurozone economy will drop into recession immediately.” 

With Nord Stream flows at zero, Russian flows via Ukraine remain stable. Meanwhile, Norwegian NatGas flows are curbed because of seasonal maintenance. 

END

Europe’s nightmare scenario: Energy bills to rise by 2 Trillion euros and reach 20% of disposable income

(zerohedge)

Europe’s Nightmare Scenario Comes True: Energy Bills To Rise By €2 Trillion, Will Reach 20% Of Disposable Income

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 02:25 PM

What is the scale of the energy challenge?

We got a very shocking sense of the staggering numbers involved in the existential, crippling European crisis earlier today when Norwegian energy giant Equinor echoed what Zoltan Pozsar said in March, warning that “European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion.” As Bloomberg put it, in its best non-Zoltan imitation, “aside from inflating bills and fanning inflation, the biggest energy crisis in decades is sucking up capital to guarantee trades amid wild price swings. That’s putting pressure on European Union officials to intervene to prevent energy markets from stalling.”

“Liquidity support is going to be needed,” Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. The issue is focused on derivatives trading, while the physical market is functioning, he said, adding that the company’s estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is “conservative.””

In other words, massive amounts of newly-printed funding (because with yields blowing up, Europe’s fiscal stimulus will be over before it started unless central banks step in and backstop the latest energy hyperinflation bailout plans) will be required to avert an energy disaster. Alas, the final number will be even more massive, because overnight Goldman’s research team published a must read note (available to pro subs), in which the bank looked at the scale of the energy bill challenge, potential European government responses and industry implications, and quantified the total damage. The numbers are staggering:

According to Goldman, Italian household energy bills could rise from ~€150 to ~€600 in 2023. Some more details:

“For most families and industrial customers, energy bills are renegotiated every twelve months; on our estimates, energy bills for most consumers will peak this winter. We estimate a c.€500/month cost for power and gas currently, implying a c.200% increase vs. 2021 when average bills were c.€160/month. Energy bills could approach €600/month in a zero flows (from Russia) scenario we believe (see here for more on this zero flows scenario). “

The trigger for this exponential surge in costs: since January 2020, 1-year forward gas and power prices – usually the reference when signing new energy supply contracts for families or industrial customers – have each increased by more than 13x. The following exhibit shows this evolution, rebased to 100.

For Europe as a whole, this would be equivalent to a near €2 TRILLION increase in gas and power spending (equivalent to c.15% of GDP).

Goldman next calculates that if current 1-year forward prices remain unchanged for the coming six months, supply contract renegotiations would lift the EU’s power and gas unitary bills by c.200%, vs. 2021. As a reference, the exhibits below show (using Italy as an example) the unitary cost of energy (€/MWh) evolution of gas and electricity, for both industrial users and households.

In this nightmare scenario, Energy bills would constitute over 20% of EU household gross disposable income.

The next table shows a sensitivity analysis in the surge in energy bills for Europe, depending on the development of gas and power prices.

And while Goldman does not say it, the biggest winner from this historic transfer of wealth – one which sees Europe’s standard of living implode as disposable income evaporates going instead into staples like power and heat… is none other than Vladimir Putin.

But we already knew that: last weekend Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Poszar published what may have been the most insightful snippet of the entire European energy crisis (to date) when he extended the infamous “Minsky Moment” framework to Europe, and specifically Germany, which he said “can’t cover its payments without Russian gas and the government is asking citizens to conserve energy to leave more for industry.” He then elaborated that “Minsky moments are triggered by excessive financial leverage, and in the context of supply chains, leverage means excessive operating leverage: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia… …that’s 100-times leverage – much more than Lehman’s.” 

Guess what: Russian gas will never cost $20 billion again, and meanwhile the margin call on that 100x leverage is now due.

So what solutions could governments use to cushion the consumer hit in Europe? According to Goldman, two come to mind:

Windfall tax on European utilities would have very little impact (only €30bn of income per year).

Price caps in power generation would be more effective and could save €650bn p/a. This is based on fact that a large part of power generation costs less than the marginal source of energy. These could follow the example set in Spain, where there are two co-existing caps:

  1. a cap on gas prices that CCGTs are permitted to translate to the electricity price (c.€70/MWhg, which compares with current TTF levels of c.€200/MWhg); and
  2. a cap on the level of remuneration fixed-cost technologies (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) are allowed to receive (c.€75/MWh).

But price caps would not fully solve the affordability issue, as the increase in gas and power bills would still be +€1.3 tn, or c.10% of GDP on the team’s estimates.

This is why Goldman believes that the introduction of a “tariff deficit” might eventually be needed, to spread the recent spike in bills over 10-20 years, and allowing the Utilities to securitize promptly these future payments. Although this scheme would limit demand destruction, it would smooth the increase in tariffs, limit the near-term decline in industrial production, and largely defuse regulatory risk.

Whatever the band aid solution that is applied, however, the reality is grim. And while we wait for the latest Zoltan note to quanity it in a way only he can, the math is simple: Europe can’t print more nat gas, oil, coal, etc, so one way or another, it will have to offset the surge in costs, first in commodities and then in all downstream chains, which in the very near future will mean governments will soon be subsidizing Europe’s cost of living as the alternative is a violent revolution. In short: we are about to see the printers go brrrr like never before, if only to prevent Europeans from going brrrr this winter…

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

END

Why The Russian Oil Price Cap Won’t Work

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 01:25 PM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • Reducing the availability of insurance services is seen by Western leaders as a way of reducing Russian crude exports.
  • Russia stated last week that it would not sell oil to countries with a price cap in place.
  • The ‘price cap coalition’ is simply not broad enough to make the cap work.

The chances of a G7 price cap on Russian oil being remotely effective are perhaps best summed up by a recent tweet from a Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist:  

“My friends and I have agreed to impose a price cap on our local pub’s beer. Mind we actually do not plan to drink any beer there. The pub’s owner says he won’t sell beer to anyone observing the cap, so other patrons, who drink a lot there, say they aren’t joining the cap. Success.”

First floated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the idea of capping Russian crude oil exports had a dual aim: keeping Russian oil flowing abroad, which would set a ceiling on prices, and at the same time reducing Russia’s oil revenues, which make up a sizeable portion of GDP and, according to G7, are what Russia is using to finance the war in Ukraine.

The price cap idea was taken up by the G7 leaders at their meeting in June where the seven vowed to find a way to enforce it. 

From the beginning, the most plausible way to apply price pressure on Russia was by reducing the availability of insurance for its oil tankers unless it agreed to sell its oil at a certain price.

In addition to the fact that 90% of the insurance market is in the hands of Western companies, the fact that Western companies are also some of the biggest players in the maritime shipping business was also going to be crucial for the price cap if the G7 wanted it to have any chance of success.

“Today we confirm our joint political intention to finalise and implement a comprehensive prohibition of services which enable maritime transportation of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products globally,” the G7 finance ministers said in a statement, as quoted by Reuters.

These services will be made available to Russian oil companies only if they agree to sell their oil at a price “determined by the broad coalition of countries adhering to and implementing the price cap.” And this is where the problems begin.

The first problem is that Russia, contrary to what the G7 were apparently expecting, did not take this latest attempt to “defund” it lying down. Russia said plainly—twice last week—that it would not sell oil to countries with a price cap in place.

“In my opinion, this is utterly absurd. And this is an interference in the market mechanisms of such an important industry as oil,” said Deputy PM Alexander Novak, who represented Russia at OPEC+.

“Companies that impose a price cap will not be among the recipients of Russian oil,” a Kremlin spokesman said on Friday, adding “We simply will not cooperate with them on non-market principles.” 

The proponents of the price cap argue that Russia will have no choice but to comply with the price caps because of that 90% of the insurance market and because of the “broad coalition”.

The truth is that the coalition is simply not broad enough to make the cap work. The coalition, despite the G7’s best efforts, does not include either China or India—Russia’s two biggest oil clients. The coalition itself is not a big importer, and two of its members—the United States and the UK—banned oil imports from Russia early on.

A third one, Japan, would be quite hard pressed to enforce the price cap, too, given its dependence on any and all sorts of energy imports. It was not a surprise, therefore, that while Japan’s finance minister Shinuchi Suzuki celebrated the G7 decision, on Friday, media noted, citing a Finance Ministry official, that oil from Sakhalin-2, the Russian project, which is exported to Japan, will be excluded from the price cap.

The proponents’ argument is that Russia cannot afford to stop selling oil to the G7 price cap enforcers. A skeptic might point out that Russia has already raked in much higher than normal revenues from its oil and gas exports because of the havoc wreaked on markets by Western sanctions. It could then afford to sit back and watch prices top $100 and more once again. Especially, with OPEC+ today deciding to cut production by 100,000 bpd for October in response to the price slide.

But here’s the thing. Russia was reportedly not on board with a production cut. According to unnamed sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, Moscow sees the decision to cut output as a sign for buyers that there is plenty of oil to go around, which could “reduce its leverage with oil-consuming nations that are still buying its petroleum but at big discounts”.

The G7 price cap is entering into effect on December 5 for crude oil and on February 5, pending the finalization of the price caps “based on a range of technical inputs”. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99201 UP  0.0029 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 141.998   UP  1.561 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1567 UP   0.0002

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 43.59 POINTS OR 1.36%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.97 PTS OR 0.12% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.26%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 22.97 PTS OR  0.12% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 43.59 PTS  OR 1.36% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.26% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 6,90 OR 0.03%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1711.90

silver:$18.40

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 109.94 UP 43  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.68% UP 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.236% UP 0    AND 8/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.79%// UP 7  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.94  UP 10   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.602% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.99118 DOWN  .0038   or 38 basis points

USA/Japan: 142.94 UP 2.502 OR YEN DOWN 250 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1532 DOWN.0033 OR 33 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts  to 1.3129

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.9544 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9690

TURKISH LIRA:  18.22  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.236

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 13  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.324% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.456 UP 11  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 110.15 UP 64 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 12.25 PTS OR  0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 102.04 POINTS OR 0.80%

Paris CAC CLOSED  UP 10.80 PTS OR 0.17% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 14.40 OR  0.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 8.85PTS OR  0.04%

WTI Oil price 86.62  12: EST

Brent Oil:  93.33 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.99  DOWN 0  AND 12/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.602

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9961 UP .0003     OR  3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1513 DOWN  .0034 or  34 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.14 UP 0.052//YEN DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3130 DOWN 0.0017  (CDN dollar, UP 17 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.94

Brent OIL:  93.01

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.199 DOWN 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.348  DOWN 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.22

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.58  DOWN 0 AND    27 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 173,14 PTS OR 0.55 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 87.13 PTS OR 0.72%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.87 UP 0.88 PTS (3.39)%

GLD: $158.33 DOWN .93 OR 0.58%

SLV/ $16.54 DOWN 3 CENTS OR 0.18%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Tech Tumbles To Worst Streak In 6 Years; Crypto, Credit, & Commodities Clobbered

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 04:00 PM

No rescue from Powell’s pain as Putin’s promises pissed off more people from Poland to Paris over the weekend…

US futures attempted a half-arsed rally overnight but that was all puked back as the cash markets opened…

This left Nasdaq down 7 straight days – its longest losing streak since Nov 2016

All the US majors attempted rally up to thjeir 50DMAs last week have now failed as fresh cycle lows and being made….

But the Nasdaq has further to fall to catch down to STIRs’ reality…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were also clubbed like a baby seal on the day, with yields up 13-14bps across the entire curve (only the short-end saw modest outperformance – up ‘only’ 10bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike (and subsequent rate-cut) expectations both tightened hawkishly today with the terminal rate now above 3.91% (March 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended recent gains to fresh highs against its fiat peers with the EU session seeing the biggest bid once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto crashed around 1300ET as some suggested (unsourced) this may be initial dump of MtGox holdings. This pushed Bitcoin down below $19k – testing the spike lows from 7/13…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold fell back after bouncing off $1700 late last week…

Oil prices slipped back after rallying yesterday on OPEC+ production cuts. WTI fell back after failing at $90 once again…

US NatGas plunged over 7% today, hitting a four-week low, as soaring output coupled with lower demand forecasts drags prices down, despite the fact that inventories are 11% lower than their five-year norm.

For context, European NatGas is now trading at around $400/bbl equivalent – triple that of US Natgas…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Dr.Doom himself is back with some ominous warnings. Nouriel Roubini said that stubborn inflation and the coronavirus pandemic might force the Fed to drive the US economy into an even deeper recession than the one it has avoided.

“I worry about a stagflationary debt crisis, because you have the worst of the ’70s in terms of supply shocks, and you have the worst of the global financial crisis because of too much debt, and that combination is dangerous,” he said.

“If you’re behind the curve, eventually the recession is going to be more severe, the loss of jobs and income and wages is going to be more severe,” the economist explained, referring to the Fed’s rate hikes relative to inflation. “You need to be ahead of the curve.”

What does that mean for stocks?

Source: Bloomberg

And Roubini says Fed actions will cause crashes across not just stocks, but bonds, housing, credit, private equity, and other assets in bubble territory. However, he warns, if the central bank gives up on fighting inflation, price increases could spiral out of control.

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

US Stocks & Bonds Are Getting Monkeyhammered…

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 10:11 AM

Well with Labor Day a distant memory, US markets are waking up to European pain and dumping any overnight gains in a hurry…

Nasdaq is now down 1.3% from Friday’s close, after being up over 1% in the pre-market…

Bonds are also being clubbed like baby seals….

Notably rate-cut expectations for next year are plummeting.

ii) USA DATA//

USA service sector which is 70% of GDP weakest since peak COVID lockdown or strongest since April depending on which metric you want to use

(zerohedge)

US Services Sector Weakest Since ‘Peak COVID Lockdown’ (Or Strongest Since April)

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 10:06 AM

After a mixed picture from the manufacturing side of the US economy (ISM stable, PMI weak), US services surveys were expected to both show more weakness in August.

S&P Global’s US Services PMI did indeed fall and disappoint, printing 43.7 vs 44.1 expected (and below its flash print) and well below its 47.1 print for July – that is the lowest since May 2020.

Of course, in keeping with the utter insanity of the ‘baffle em with bullshit’ data we are seeing, US ISM Services unexpectedly rose in August – extending July’s unexpected rise – at 56.9 (above 55.4 expected) and its highest since April.

Source: Bloomberg

Take your pick – either US Services are contracting at the fastest pace with the lockdowns or are expanding at their fastest pace in 5 months… and the picture was the same mixed view in Manufacturing…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“August saw the US economy slide into a steepening downturn, underscoring the rising risk of a deepening recession as households and business grapple with the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions.

“Businesses are reporting a deterioration in output and order books of a degree exceeded since the global financial crisis only by that seen during the initial pandemic lockdowns.

“While orders are being lost across the board as a result of rising prices and the cost-of-living squeeze, the steepest downturn is being recorded in the financial services sector, reflecting the additional impact of higher interest rates and worsening financial conditions.

“Jobs growth has meanwhile cooled as companies grow increasingly reluctant to expand in the face of falling demand and an uncertain outlook, which will serve to further dampen growth in the coming months.

One positive form the survey was a substantial fall in the rate of input cost inflation, which should help to moderate consumer price growth in the months ahead, albeit with the rate of increase remaining stubbornly elevated.”

Overall, the S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 44.6 in August, down from 47.7 in July, to its weakest since peak COVID lockdown.

The US is now the weakest on a composite PMI basis of all the majors…

This signals a sharp contraction in business activity across the private sector.

Despite the degree of confidence rising to a three-month high, weak client demand led to a softer increase in employment in August.

iii)USA economic commentaries

The true USA economic numbers

(Michael Snyder)

12 Numbers That Show That We’re Getting Dangerously Close To An Economic Crash As The Fall Of 2022 Approaches

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

You have heard me say it over and over again.  What we are witnessing right now reminds me so much of 2008, and we all remember what happened in the fall of 2008.  That doesn’t mean that this new crisis will unfold exactly the same way that the last one did.  Ultimately, every economic downturn is unique.  But the fact that we are seeing so many parallels between what is transpiring now and what transpired 14 years ago should deeply alarm all of us.  We appear to be on the precipice of another economic crash, and all of the “solutions” that our leaders give us just seem to make things even worse.

Hopefully someone out there can find a way to pull a miracle out of a hat and a worst case scenario can be averted.

But I wouldn’t count on that happening.  The following are 12 numbers that show that we are getting dangerously close to an economic crash as the fall of 2022 approaches…

#1 The government is telling us that the unemployment rate only went up to 3.7 percent in August.

#2 According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used the real rate of unemployment in the United States would be over 24 percent.

#3 About half of all U.S. companies say that they will be eliminating jobs within the next 12 months.

#4 The government is telling us that the inflation rate in the United States is only 8.5 percent.

#5 According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the real rate of inflation would be somewhere around 17 percent right now.  That is worse than anything that we experienced during the Jimmy Carter era.

#6 At one company, the number of Americans taking out short-term loans for groceries has nearly doubled this year.

#7 One out of every five home sellers in the United States dropped their asking price last month.  This is more evidence that home prices are starting to rapidly move in a downward direction.

#8 Sales of previously-owned homes were about 20 percent lower this July than they were last July.

#9 One recent survey found that 3.8 million Americans believe that they could be evicted from their homes within the next two months.

#10 According to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, approximately 20 million U.S. households are currently behind on their utility bills.

#11 The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen for three weeks in a row.  We also witnessed this sort of a gradual slide just prior to the big crash of 2008.

#12 In August, a whopping 2,150 corporate executives sold off shares in their companies.  Are they trying to cash in while they still can?

Gustavo Arnal was one of the corporate executives that recently sold off large amounts of stock.

Now he is dead

The man who jumped to his death from the 18th floor of the famous ‘Jenga’ tower in lower Manhattan’s Tribeca neighborhood Friday has been identified as a Bed Bath & Beyond executive.

Gustavo Arnal, 52, was the Chief Financial Officer of Bed Bath & Beyond, a company that has been going through struggles of late due to high inflation and a sagging economy. The company announced plans to close 150 stores, of its roughly 900, and lay off 20 percent of staff just two days before Arnal’s death.

He reportedly sold over 42,000 shares in the company, oft-identified as a ‘meme stock’, for $1million just over two weeks ago, according to MarketBeat.com.

It appears that Arnal was involved in a “pump and dump” scheme, and he may have decided that he didn’t want to spend much of the rest of his life locked away in prison

The executive vice president and chief financial officer of Bed Bath & Beyond who plunged to his death from the 18th floor of a New York City skyscraper on Friday was the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging that he and majority shareholder, GameStop Chairman Ryan Cohen, had artificially inflated the company’s value in a “pump and dump” scheme.

Gustavo Arnal, 52, and Cohen, are listed as defendants in the class-action lawsuit filed last month in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia.

Sadly, I think that we will see quite a few more people jumping off of buildings before this whole thing is over.

Of course most Americans would never do such a thing.

Most Americans will just suffer through whatever comes even as their standard of living is being systematically destroyed.

For example, CNN recently interviewed one young mother that couldn’t even afford to buy a backpack for her preschooler…

As Sarah Longmore finished her back-to-school shopping, the mother of five looked at a $25 backpack for her preschooler. Soaring inflation had crunched the family’s budget, and she decided her daughter could make do with a hand-me-down. She put the backpack back.

Unfortunately, she is not alone.

In fact, one recent poll found that only 36 percent of all parents will “be able to pay for everything their kids need this school year”…

Just 36% of parents said they would be able to pay for everything their kids need this school year, according to Morning Consult’s annual back-to-school shopping report. That’s down sharply from 52% in 2021, when inflation was lower and stimulus checks plus advance child tax credit payments helped some families.

Are things really this bad already?

If so, what will conditions look like six months or a year from now?

2023 is less than four months away, and the stage has been set for an economic implosion of absolutely epic proportions.

Do you remember the extreme pain that our nation went through in 2008 and 2009?

Many believe that what is ahead will be even worse.

The greatest debt bubble in the history of the world is starting to burst, and central banks all over the globe are starting to panic.

If you always wanted to live in “interesting” times, you are going to get your wish.

But for most people, the times that we are moving into will not be fun at all.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

END

Colorado River//Lake Powell/Lake Mead//Megadrought

This is very catastrophic

(Spence/EpochTimes)

Megadrought Threatening Millions Of Americans With Loss Of Water And Power

FRIDAY, SEP 02, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Colorado River Basin meanders through seven U.S. states and supplies water to Lake Powell in the Upper Basin and Lake Mead in the Lower Basin. In turn, these reservoirs deliver water and power to millions of Americans.Photos of the Colorado River showing drought at the Overton Arm between 2000 and 2022. (Compilation of NASA photos)

They’re also going dry.

Indeed, on Aug. 16, 2021, the Bureau of Reclamation issued the first Level One Shortage Condition in the Lower Basin when Lake Mead fell below 1075 feet.

Then, in March 2022, the bureau reported that Lake Powell fell below the target elevation of 3,525 feet for the first time since the 1960s.Lightning strikes over Lake Mead near Hoover Dam that impounds Colorado River water at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Ariz., on July 28, 2014. (John Locher/AP Photo)

Pointedly, these drops threaten hydropower generation and municipal water needs for 40 million Americans.

And while Congress has taken steps to address the flagging water supply, a 20-year megadrought and unsustainable allotments are hampering its efforts.

In 1999, Lake Powell averaged a water elevation of almost 3,681 feet, and Lake Mead was almost near capacity at 1,220 feet near the dam.

After more than 20 years of drought, the West has officially entered a megadrought (meaning 20 or more years), and Lake Powell’s water level is down almost 150 feet. Lake Mead’s water level is down nearly 176 feet.

Indeed, the period from 2000 to 2021 was the driest on record for many states in the West.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) designated 63 out of 64 Colorado counties as natural disaster areas due to drought and declared natural disaster areas in several Wyoming counties.A dead fish sits on cracked earth above the water level on Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, on May 9, 2022. (John Locher/AP Photo)

In Mancos Valley, an area considered a Colorado agricultural utopia with cooler weather and “plenty” of water, streams ran at half the average flow, reducing water for hundreds of farmers and ranchers.

Moreover, headwaters for the Colorado River Basin start in Colorado and Wyoming, meaning the lack of water didn’t just affect the two states.

“Water conditions on the river depend largely on snowmelt in the basin’s northern areas [of Colorado and Wyoming],” states a Congressional Research Service report (CRS).

Still, it could probably pull through if the megadrought was the only problem facing the Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately, federal and state mismanagement compound the megadrought, driving the river to the brink of disaster.

Unsustainable Drains

In 1922, the Basin States of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, and California established the Colorado River Compact to release water from the lakes based on basin storage conditions.

Specifically, under the compact, each basin is allocated 7.5-million-acre feet (MAF) per year—one-acre foot equals about 326,000 gallons—and a certain percentage goes to the Basin States based on water levels in the dams.

At its peak, Glen Canyon Dam on Lake Powell can store 26.2 MAF, and Hoover Dam on Lake Mead can store 26.1 MAF, according to CRS.Lake Powell and the Glen Canyon Dam. (Beverly Mann)

In 1944, the United States entered a treaty with Mexico to provide an additional 1.5 MAF from the basin to Mexico.

Markedly, at the onset of the compacts, federal and state governments assumed that river flows would average 16.4 MAF per year, states CRS. But that turned out to be a deeply flawed assumption.

From 1906 to 2020, the actual river flows averaged 13.9 MAF, but consumption and losses averaged approximately 15 MAF. Demand outpaced supply.

Drought and Hydroelectric Plants

According to the Department of Energy, hydropower is primarily used for ramping energy flexibility and represents less than 6.7 percent of U.S. electricity generation capacity.

In other words, if an area relies on solar and exceeds capacity, or the sun sets, hydropower can “ramp up” energy production quickly—hydropower provides approximately 40 percent of black start resources (restoring a power station to operation without relying on the external electric power transmission network after a total or partial shutdown).

It’s also considered one of the “cleanest” and “cheapest” forms of energy.

However, hydroelectricity generation depends on funneling large amounts of water from elevated heights through power plants typically found inside dams, according to the Water Resources Research Center, making significant river systems a vital resource.

Read more here…

end

California declares a grid emergency as blackout risks surge

(zerohedge)

California Declares Grid Emergency (For 5th Straight Day) As Blackout Risks Surge

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 05:15 PM

For the 5th straight day, California Independent System Operator (California ISO) declared a grid emergency Monday afternoon. The grid operator forecasts record high demand on Tuesday, with the possibility of ‘rotating outages’ as early as today. A menacing statewide heatwave has sparked huge demand for electricity while generating capacity remains subdued. 

The historic heat bearing down on California will push the state’s electricity system to its limit. Millions of homes and businesses are cranking air condition use to the max, contributing to what could be record high electricity demand tomorrow. 

The grid operator is preparing for electricity demand to hit 48.9 GW on Monday, the most since 2017, with a record high expected on Tuesday. 

Notably, despite 5 days of warnings, the virtuous Californians are using more electricity today than at any time during the week…

Bob Oravec, a senior branch forecaster with the US Weather Prediction Center, told Bloomberg many areas in the state would register in triple-digit territory early this week. 

Much of California is under an excessive heat warning for the next four days. Sacramento could reach 113 on Monday and 115 on Tuesday shattering records for those days, Oravec said. Downtown Los Angeles reached 103 on Sunday, which was the first time the temperature broke 100 this year. – Bloomberg 

Daily high temps across the state should peak by mid-week. 

Power prices in the southern part of the state jumped above $200 per megawatt hour. 

California ISO warned that ‘rotating outages’ are possible Monday, adding customers need to reduce energy consumption even more, to keep the lights on.

State officials continue to ask residents not to charge EVs to help with grid stability

end

Gov. Gavin Newsom Signs Fast Food Bill Decried As “California Food Tax”

TUESDAY, SEP 06, 2022 – 12:05 PM

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday announced that he signed legislation targeting some fast food franchises to lift minimum wages to $22 per hour and change working conditions. Opponents have described the bill as “hypocritical” and “ill-considered.”

The bill will create a 10-member Fast Food Council appointed by Newsom, a Democrat, and other state lawmakers.

“California is committed to ensuring that the men and women who have helped build our world-class economy are able to share in the state’s prosperity,” Newsom said in a statement.

“Today’s action gives hardworking fast-food workers a stronger voice and seat at the table to set fair wages and critical health and safety standards across the industry. I’m proud to sign this legislation on Labor Day when we pay tribute to the workers who keep our state running as we build a stronger, more inclusive economy for all Californians.”

The council members who are bureaucrats, fast food restaurant employees, franchisees, and franchisors will be appointed by the governor. The state assembly speaker and Senate Rules Committee speaker will each appoint one member as an advocate for fast food restaurant employees, according to the legislation.

The California Restaurant Association (CRA) argued that the bill unfairly targets some franchises to the detriment of others and the community.

“By signing AB 257 into law, Governor Newsom has not leveled the playing field but instead targeted one slice of California’s small businesses and consumers who rely on counter service restaurants to feed their families,” a statement from the organization reads.

“As individual employers and neighborhood restaurants across the state, we will use every tool at our disposal to protect our consumers, workers, and other job providers from the pain and havoc that will result from enacting this bill.”

CRA also decried the signing of the bill while inflation in the United States is at record high levels, saying that consumers and small business owners will pay a 20 percent increase “to fund the outsourcing of the legislature’s duties to union-led bureaucracy.”

“By arbitrarily singling out a sliver of the restaurant industry, California’s approach imposes higher costs on one type of restaurant while sparing others, putting some workers at a disadvantage and picking clear ‘winners’ and ‘losers.’

“Governor Newsom ignored the arbitrary and haphazard nature of this bill and signed into law a reckless precedent which will have far-reaching harmful impacts beyond the state’s borders,” the organization said.

McDonald’s USA President Joe Erlinger, a California native, said that the state government has been driving businesses out of California with its policies. 

Erlinger said he supports wage increases and noted that McDonald’s operates well in jurisdictions with high minimum wage regulations in the United States and around the world.

But he said that the approach California has taken “targets some workplaces and not others.”

It imposes higher costs on one type of restaurant, while sparing another. That’s true even if those two restaurants have the same revenues and the same number of employees,” he said in an open letter

“If you are a small business owner running two restaurants that are part of a national chain, like McDonald’s, you can be targeted by the bill,” he added.

“But if you own 20 restaurants that are not part of a large chain, the bill does not apply to you. For unexplainable reasons, brands with fewer than 100 locations are excluded. Even more mystifying, the legislation excludes certain restaurants that bake bread. I can only conclude this is the outcome of backroom politicking.”

Erlinger said the bill is “lopsided, hypocritical and ill-considered” and noted that economists have warned that it will “drive up the cost of eating at a quick service restaurant in California by 20 percent at a time when Americans already face soaring costs in supermarkets and at gas pumps.”

Read more here…

SWAMP STORIES

Whistleblower Lawyer: FBI Agents Have Lost Confidence In Director Wray

FRIDAY, SEP 02, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A lawyer representing several unnamed FBI whistleblowers said Wednesday that agents have lost confidence in the bureau’s leadership amid recent controversy.FBI Director Christopher Wray is sworn in during a hearing before Senate Judiciary Committee at Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Aug. 4, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The FBI and the Department of Justice (DOJ) have faced Republican criticism over the raid of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago, while a number of whistleblowers have provided testimony to GOP lawmakers about alleged political bias at the bureau. Over the past weekend, high-ranking FBI agent Timothy Thibault departed the agency amid whistleblower complaints.

I’m hearing from [FBI personnel] that they feel like the director has lost control of the bureau,” Kurt Siuzdak, a lawyer and former agent who represents FBI whistleblowers, told the Washington Times on Wednesday. “They’re saying, ‘How does this guy survive? He’s leaving. He’s got to leave.’”

Siuzdak told the paper that FBI agents have told him they’ve “lost confidence” in FBI Director Christopher Wray. “All Wray does is go in and say we need more training and we’re doing stuff about it, or we will not tolerate it.”

In March, Siuzdak told the New York Post that he left the FBI after a 25-year career as an agent due to what he says is a lack of accountability among FBI managers and the bureau’s leadership. He blamed it on political biases held by top managers and leaders.

Whistleblowers, Siuzdak told the paper this week, have alleged that Wray didn’t take action on a variety of matters, including sexual harassment claims and agents being forced to sign fake affidavits. Trump nominated Wray in 2017 after firing former Director James Comey.

When contacted by The Epoch Times last week about recent whistleblower claims, the FBI issued a statement that the “men and women of the FBI do their jobs with rigor, objectivity, and a fierce commitment to our mission.”

“All FBI employees are held to the highest standards of professional and ethical conduct. Allegations of misconduct are taken seriously and referred to the Inspection Division or the Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General. Through the disciplinary process, the FBI will continue to hold employees accountable for any substantiated misconduct,” the agency added.

The FBI on Wednesday appeared to send the same statement to the Washington Times about Siuzdak’s interview. The Epoch Times has contacted the agency for additional comment.

More Details

Last week, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said he’s received new whistleblower complaints from FBI employees, calling for a new investigation.

The guy told me that he loves the bureau, that he doesn’t want to see the bureau defunded or destroyed, but that he really feels a need to come forward so that there’s a focus on the things they ought to be doing, not trying to affect political outcomes,” the GOP lawmaker said.

Read more here…

end

Former US Intel Chief: FBI ‘Didn’t Find What They Were Looking For’ In Trump Raid

SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022 – 12:30 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said he believes the FBI “didn’t find what they were looking” for during last month’s raid on former President Donald Trump’s home.

“I was a former federal prosecutor, United States attorney. Let me tell you what this is about. Good prosecutors with good cases play it straight. They don’t need to play games,” Ratcliffe told Fox News on Wednesday, referring to officials within the Department of Justice (DOJ). “They don’t need to shop for judges, they don’t need to leak intelligence that may or may not exist.”A law enforcement officer outside Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 8, 2022. (Giorgio Viera/AFP/Getty Images)

Because of the DOJ’s arguments against having Trump appoint a special master to review allegedly classified documents, it “tells you that the government didn’t find what they were looking for,” Ratcliffe said. “There weren’t nuclear secrets” kept at Mar-a-Lago, he added, “and they’re trying to justify what they’ve done. They’re not playing it straight before the American people. I think that that’s going to play out.”

Ratcliffe, a former Texas congressman who later headed the Office of the Director of National Intelligence under Trump, did not provide any specific evidence for his claims and appeared to be speculating on the DOJ’s case.

Since the Aug. 8 raid on Mar-a-Lago, neither the DOJ nor the FBI has revealed what materials agents were trying to find. A heavily redacted affidavit used to obtain the search warrant last week provided few details, but it said prosecutors believed there were allegedly classified documents being kept in Trump’s Florida residence.

The former president and some former White House aides say that Trump had a standing order to declassify any materials that left the Oval Office and were taken to Mar-a-Lago.

Court Hearing

A photo included in the latest DOJ filing appeared to show documents—some marked “TOP SECRET” and “SECRET”—scattered on the floor during the raid. Trump wrote Thursday that it was the agents who took the documents and put them on the floor, while former White House aide Kash Patel suggested the picture appears to have been staged to mislead the public about the incident.John Ratcliffe, (R-TX), is sworn in before a Senate Intelligence Committee nomination hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, on May 5, 2020. (Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)

Prosecutors argued Tuesday that the 45th president “has no property interest in any presidential records (including classified records) seized from the premises” and said that a former president cannot assert executive privilege against the executive branch itself.

Read more here…

end

Judge Halts FBI Use Of Mar-a-Lago Raid Docs, Appoints Special Master To Review

MONDAY, SEP 05, 2022 – 12:15 PM

A federal judge on Monday granted former President Trump’s request for a third-party expert to review materials seized by the FBI from his Mar-a-Lago residence.

US District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, said in a Sunday ruling released on Monday that a so-called special master would review the seized property, manage assertions of privilege, as well as make recommendations regarding the investigative value of materials – and what property should be returned to Trump, Bloomberg reports.

Details of the review process will be decided after both sides submit proposals.

As Jonathan Turley noted last week;

Such an appointment should have been done before the Justice Department reviewed the material. The Department sought a ridiculously broad search warrant and Magistrate Paul Reinhart simply signed off on the order without considering the wide array of privileged material that could be seized. It adopted language so broad that it was the legal version of Captain Jack Sparrow’s “Take what you can … Give nothing back.” It allowed the seizure of any box containing any document with any classification of any kind — and all boxes stored with that box. It also allowed the seizure of any writing from Trump’s presidency.

However, a special master could still serve the same interests of transparency and legitimacy. The special master could divide these documents in classified material, unclassified but defense information, and unclassified material outside of the scope of the alleged crimes. The last category would then be returned.

That accounting could also offer basic descriptive information on the material without revealing their precise content or titles. The special master could describe material as related to national defense or nuclear weapons (as was previously leaked government sources). The government has already leaked that there was nuclear weapons material being sought. Confirming such general details can be done without giving details on the specific information or even titles for the documents to protect national security. In national security cases, including cases where I have served as counsel, such indexes and summaries are common.

Once again, as with the release of the redacted affidavit, Garland could have taken these steps to assure the public that the Department was not acting for political or improper purposes — or using excessive means to achieve those goals. He has refused every opportunity to do so while chastising those who question the integrity of his Department.

The release of the redacted affidavit shows that what Garland and his Department told the public was untrue about the inability to release a redacted affidavit without endangering the case or national security. As discussed yesterday, the redacted affidavit confirmed various key points on the legal and factual background. After opposing the release of even a single line, the government released whole pages that were manifestly suitable for public disclosure.

Once again, Garland waited to be forced to take this step rather than act on his own to address widespread concerns. His department has a documented history of officials misleading courts and filing false material in Trump-related investigations. This is yet another example of how Attorney General Garland has done little to earn the trust of almost half of the country. In this and other controversies, he has demanded respect but refused to take even modest measures to justify it.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 6 2022 Issue 6837Independent View of the News
People were be ridiculed, scorned, and cancelled for advocating Ivermectin to treat Covid.  Why?  Because it might help Trump and it reduced the need for Big Pharma vaccines. It was all a scam!  We noted more than once that by law, a vaccine could NOT gain emergency use if a viable treatment existed.
 
Fauci’s Red Guards: Lawsuit Reveals Vast Federal Censorship Army
“This evidence suggests we are uncovering the most serious, coordinated, and large-scale violation of First Amendment free speech rights by the federal government’s executive branch in US history.”
    By simultaneously threatening both the federal bureaucracy and social media companies, a handful of high-level officials could effectively transform the federal government into a sprawling censorship army reminiscent of Mao’s Red Guards, silencing any opposition to tin-pot public health policies with increasing detachment and certitude as this systematic silencing falsely convinced them that the regime’s policies were just and good…  https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/faucis-red-guards-lawsuit-reveals
 
WSJ: Look Who’s Rushing Covid Vaccines Now – The FDA authorized the new ‘bivalent’ mRNA shots without any trials of their efficacy or analysis of their risk
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rushing-covid-vaccines-bivalent-pfizer-moderna-risk-harm-sickness-shots-pandemic-fda-skeptics-11662149144
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Early and late US equity rallies; bonds closed sharply higher
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Large, negative equity reversal – on a Friday; The NY Fang+ Index declined 1.91%
Energy commodities rallied sharply on Russia’s latest export halt to Europe
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will recession arrive?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3949.63
Previous session High/Low4018.43; 3906.21
 
@charliebilello: The last 5 times US Inflation peaked above 5% it took a much higher Fed Funds Rate and a recession to bring it back down. Is this time different? via @ycharts (We said this months ago.)
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1566067694973116420
 
Colorado utility company locks 22,000 thermostats in 90-degree weather due to ‘energy emergency’
The Colorado customers ‘chose to be part of’ the program that locked their thermostats…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/colorado-utility-company-locks-22000-thermostats-in-90-degree-weather-due-energy-emergency
 
Czech Republic: Thousands take part in Prague anti-government demonstration
Dubbed “Czech Republic First,” the protest highlighted rising inflation fueled by a rise in energy prices, Covid-19 vaccinations, and immigrants (Make Czech Republic Great Again – MCRGA!)
https://www.dw.com/en/czech-republic-thousands-take-part-in-prague-anti-government-demonstration/a-63012178
 
(On Monday) Russia will not resume gas supplies to Europe until sanctions lifted, says Moscow
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/05/russia-will-not-resume-gas-supplies-to-europe-until-sanctions-lifted-says-moscow
 
EU to Discuss Gas-Price Caps, Derivatives Halt Amid Crisis – from natural gas price caps to a suspension of power derivatives trading, as the bloc races to respond to the deepening crisis…
To limit the impact of gas prices on power prices:temporarily capping the price of gas used for electricity generationputting a price ceiling on gas imported from Russiatemporary exclusion of power production from gas from merit order and price setting on the electricity market could also be an optionTo increase liquidity on the market:an urgent Europe-wide credit line support for market participants faced with high margin callscapping the limits for margining or automatic price ceiling adjustmenttemporary suspensions of European power derivatives markets… (Could create a market crisis)https://www.yahoo.com/now/eu-debate-radical-energy-intervention-181036265.html
 
@RobinBrooksIIF: The Euro zone narrative is shifting. A few months ago it was: “there won’t be recession.” Recently it shifted to: “there’ll be recession, but it’ll be shallow.” This weekend we began to make the final shift: “we’re heading for deep recession.” Euro is going to fall a lot more
 
Macron Backs EU-Wide Windfall Tax on Energy Company Profits
EU energy ministers will meet Sept. 9 to discuss special measures to rein in soaring energy costs, from natural gas price caps to a suspension of power derivatives trading. Macron said a special tax could be implemented in France if the EU agrees to it.  Europe is fighting to stave off an energy catastrophe that’s threatening to become an economic and social quagmire… Gas prices surged more than 35% on Monday… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/macron-backs-eu-wide-windfall-tax-on-energy-company-profits
 
AP: Macron calls for 10% reduction in country’s energy use to avoid rationing, cuts this winter.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-macron-climate-and-environment-14313550b4fbd77a1f67c36203b881a9
 
Markets on MondayOPEC+ announced a 100k B/D production cut; so, WTI Oil surged as much as 4%Liz Truss became UK Prime MinisterAsian bourses declined modestly; European bourses sank of the deepening energy crisisThe Euro Stoxx 50 hit -2.8% at 3:53 ET but closed -1.53; the euro hit a low of .9878/$The DAX hit – 3.3% at 3:53 ET and closed -2.22%SPUs traded sideways, mostly in positive territory, and closed +11.75 on safe haven buyingUSZ high: 134 30/32 at 18:14 ET, low: 133 18/32 (-1 1/32) at 8:21 ET and close: -17/32 
Japan’s services sector shrinks (49.5) for 1st time in five months in August – PMI https://t.co/lA6TMSqB6O
 
Today – Given the escalating European energy crisis, it is astounding that equity prices on Monday did not plunge.  With US investors and traders returning today, it will be interesting to see what happens to stocks.  History shows that investors and traders underestimate the severity of crises – see 2007-2008.
 
Eventually, the omniscient equity market ‘gets it’; then it plunges.  This maxim has remained true for ages: “… gradually, then suddenly.”  In recent decades, government and central bank intervention has elongated the ‘gradual’ process.  ESUs are +1.25 from Monday’s close at 20:00 ET.  The 2-yr is 3.431%.
 
Expected economic data: Aug S&P Global US Services PMI 44.2, US Composite PMI 45
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4020; 100-day MA: 4048; 150-day MA: 4174; 200-day MA: 4290
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,172; 100-day MA: 32,371; 150-day MA: 33,038; 200-day MA: 33,665
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4110.40 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3981.73 triggers a buy signal
 
Disney Airs Sick Satanic Cartoon “Little Demon” Plot Features Demonic Pagan Rituals and a Single Mom knocked up By Satan  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/disney-airs-sick-satanic-cartoon-little-demon-plot-features-demonic-pagan-rituals-single-mom-knocked-satan/
 
Judge grants Donald Trump’s request for special master, halts government review of seized Mar-a-Lago documents https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/judge-grants-donald-trumps-request-special-master-halts/story
 
US District Judge Aileen Cannon (West Palm Beach, FL) ruled that the special master will be tasked with reviewing documents the FBI seized that could be subject to attorney-client and executive privilege.  Of the 11,000 documents seized, only ~100 contained classified markings, but not necessarily classified.
 
DJ@TomFitton: US District Court: Biden gang seized medical records, tax material and accounting records in unprecedented raid on Trump’s home: “the seized materials include medical documents, correspondence related to taxes, and accounting information.”  (Page 9) https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763/gov.uscourts.flsd.618763.64.0.pdf
 
Biden ordered the FBI to get DJT’s documents: “On May 10, 2022, NARA informed Plaintiff that it would proceed with “provid[ing] the FBI access to the records in question, as requested by the incumbent President, beginning as early as Thursday, May 12, 2022” [ECF No. 48-1 p. 9]. (Pages 2-3 of filing)
 
@mrddmia: The Court made clear that Trump has been cooperative with the Biden Justice Department:
https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/1566877091890507777
 
The Babylon Bee: After Using FBI To Suppress Son’s Crimes and Raid Political Rival’s Home, Biden Warns Democracy in Danger – “Folks, I’m using the feds as best I can to destroy my political opponents, but let me be clear: I’m going to have to break more laws and seize even more power if I’m going to stop fascism,” yelled President Biden, lighted in blood-red and surrounded by soldiers. “I don’t care if that means a federal takeover of elections, an overthrow of the judiciary – heck I don’t care if I have to use F-15s to carpet bomb every single Republican neighborhood in the country. We will forcibly commandeer every lever of power and communication our nation has – to, you know, defeat fascism.”
https://babylonbee.com/news/after-using-fbi-to-suppress-sons-crimes-and-raid-political-rivals-home-biden-warns-democracy-in-danger/
 
The fallout from Biden’s unpresidential/demonic speech on Thursday night resonated all weekend.  Social media wise guys used Benito Biden, Il Douche, POTUS 666, etc. to mock The Big Guy.
 
Some leftists hailed the speech, calling it a war declaration.  Some leftists said Joe didn’t go far enough.
 
MSNBC’s Eugene Robinson describes Biden speech as ‘urgent wartime address,’ as network keeps evoking civil war – MSNBC’s Tiffany Cross has claimed ‘it feels like the civil war is here’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbcs-eugene-robinson-describes-biden-speech-urgent-wartime-address-network-keeps-evoking-civil-war
 
WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin: “Biden’s Philadelphia speech met the moment.  Mass arrests should come next.”  This is NOT a parody.  Rubin deleted the tweet after beaucoup outrage and ridicule.
https://twitter.com/sdamnja1/status/1565525102145536002/photo/1
 
However, the outrage, including criticism from media allies, forced The Big Guy and WH to walk back Joe’s spiteful remarks: Joe: I don’t consider any Trump supporter to be a threat. I do think anyone who calls for the use of violence and fails to condemn violence when its used, refuse to acknowledge an election has been won… That is a threat to democracy.”  WH Polling must be abysmal.
 
Biden on Thursday night: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.” “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans are a threat to the very soul of this country.” “The Republican Party today is dominated, driven, intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans. And that is a threat to this country.”
 
President Biden @POTUS (on Saturday): The MAGA ideology looks at America and sees carnage and darkness and despair.  I see an America with an unlimited future. An America that is about to take off.
(“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.” – Joseph Goebbels)
 
@ChadPergram: Dem MI Rep Dingell on Fox: I do think that President Biden is trying very hard to bring this country together. It was unusual for him to give the kind of speech that he did on Thursday night. And I don’t believe that he is not taking a paintbrush and tarring all Republicans.
 
Vulnerable Democrats avoid Biden’s anti-MAGA speech, Trump-backed candidates fire back at divisive remarks  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vulnerable-democrats-avoid-biden-anti-maga-speech-trump-candidates-divisive-remarks
 
The WaPo Editorial Board slammed the Big Guy’s rant, admonishing Biden that you cannot “persuade people by scolding or demeaning them…”
    Mr. Biden was wrong to conflate upholding the rule of law with his own partisan agenda…
    Mr. Biden’s clarion call for democracy would carry more credibility if he were willing to call out his own party for its cynical effort to elevate some of the same “MAGA Republicans” he now warns will destroy democracy if they prevail in the general election. During the primaries, Democrats spent tens of millions helping dangerous election deniers defeat better-funded “mainstream Republicans,” including in Pennsylvania, where Mr. Biden, not coincidentally, chose to speak…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/02/biden-philadelphia-speech-democracy-midterms/
 
Ex-Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris on Biden’s speech: “It was one of the two most important unforced errors by an incumbent President since World War II… (Jimmy Carter’s Malaise Speech in 1979)… a huge mistake, an historic mistake… Why did he give the speech?   The Democratic strategy is to make Donald Trump the issue; not Joe Biden.  https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1566082923706695683
 
WH Press Sec Jean-Pierre: The presence of the marines at the speech was intended to demonstrate the deep and abiding respect the president has for these service members… It is normal… to give speeches in front of members of the military.”  https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1565742591915790336
 
Biden promised in 2020 he would ‘never’ use military as a ‘prop’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-biden-promised-2020-he-would-never-use-military-prop
 
Biden slammed by veterans group for using Marines ‘as props’ in partisan speech: It ‘erodes trust’ in military https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-slammed-veterans-group-using-marines-props-partisan-speech-erodes-trust-military
 
Wash Times’s @mrglenn on Friday: The public affairs brass here in the Pentagon cancelled a press briefing this afternoon. Some of the journos here think they don’t want to face questions about the Marines who were used as a stage prop by President Biden at his speech in Philadelphia.
 
CNN anchor hits Biden for having Marines behind him at anti-MAGA speech: Military is supposed to be apolitical – Critics slammed Biden’s use of the military during his political speech in Philadelphia
    CNN anchor Brianna Keilar offered rare criticism of President Biden over his use of Marines in the backdrop of his highly-political speech… CNN correspondent Jeff Zeleny, similarly drew attention to Biden’s use of the Marines… CBS News Radio White House correspondent Steven Portnoy retweeted a CBS News tweet and said, “On federal land, flanked by US Marines, President Biden ramps up his argument against his political opposition, warning of the perils of Trump-inspired politics.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-anchor-hits-biden-having-marines-behind-him-anti-maga-speech
 
@JonathanTurley: The Washington Post is reporting that the White House made the “conscious decision” to use the Marines to frame Biden in his speech for the “symbolism.” https://foxnews.com/media/white-houses-conscious-decision-use-marines-biden-speech-called-unwise-military-scholars-wapo
The story only magnifies the concern of use of the Marines as props.
 
@StephenM: Gen Milley wanted to resign after Pres Trump visited law enforcement to thank them for protecting the WH grounds and a historic church from a violent marxist BLM mob. Yet, no word from Milley after Biden uses Marines as a prop to attack millions of patriotic law-abiding citizens?
 
@BuckSexton: The pathetic walk back won’t work, we can’t unsee Biden going full dementia Stalin, using marines and beelzebub mood lighting as props.  They messed up, and they know it…
 
@JonathanTurley: Professor and NBC analyst Jon Meacham was reportedly one of the authors of Biden’s controversial MAGA speechhttps://t.co/5PKoGZapEC  If so, the inflammatory rhetoric is hardly surprising. Meacham has called all Trump voters as relying on “lizard brains.” https://t.co/gqi6io0JzH
 
GOP House leaders excoriated Biden; but Mitch McConnell and his ilk remain silent as of Monday night.  GOP Rep Jim Jordan: “He came across as a sad, angry, bitter old man.
 
Tucker Carlson slams Biden’s ‘obvious dictatorial ambitions’ and claims the president was calling for a ‘one-party state’ during Pennsylvania speech that was ‘turning point in American history’      For hundreds of years the U.S. has had a political system comprised of two competing parties.  ‘If you declare one party criminal, what would you be left with? You would be left with a one-party state. That’s what Joe Biden is calling for tonight. A one-party state. It’s shocking,’… https://t.co/jLRqrZBVsk
 
Ari Fleischer rips Biden’s record of ‘vitriolic’ attacks on Republicans: ‘He is so bitterly divisive’
Biden has a history of controversial political attacks, many involving race…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/ari-fleischer-rips-bidens-record-vitriolic-attacks-republicans-bitterly-divisive
 
Republicans mock ‘demagogic’ Biden speech on threats to democracy with ‘blood red lighting backdrop’ – “demagogic,” “shameful” and with a “background that looks like the Soviet Union and Hitler had a baby.”… Ben Shapiro (virulently anti-DJT)…  the “most demagogic, outrageous, and divisive speech I have ever seen from an American president…”
    Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy tweeted, “Every time I think Biden and crew can’t be dumber, they outdo themselves… who gives a speech warning people about how dangerous Republicans are to Democracy while having a background that looks like the Soviet Union and Hitler had a baby?”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-mock-demagogic-biden-speech-threats-democracy-blood-red-lighting-backdrop
 
CNN… LIGHTENED ‘demonic blood-red’ background of Biden’s furious ‘soul of the nation’ – despite new CEO vowing to lose the liberal bias and win back trust
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11178603/CNN-softens-background-color-Joe-Bidens-furious-soul-nation-speech.html
 
Trump: He threatened America, including with the possible use of military force. He must be insane or suffering from late stage dementia!”…  https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1565558753407246336
 
@ScottMGreer: The product of extremely online politics. Biden staffers love the Dark Brandon meme and wanted to make it real. Most offline Americans will be weirded out by this.
 
WH fires back at journalists who call Biden speech ‘political,’ uses media’s own reporting against them – Reporters from CNN, CBS, Reuters offered mild criticism of Biden’s anti-MAGA speech
https://www.foxnews.com/media/wh-fires-back-at-journalists-who-call-biden-speech-political-uses-medias-own-reporting-against-them
 
@RNCResearch: Karine Jean-Pierre: To “cut taxes on the middle class” is an “extreme” MAGA Republican proposal   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1565488322138472449
 
The Big Guy and his puppet masters relentlessly demean and admonish Americans that do not accept the 2020 election results.  Joe emphasized this in his ‘Enemies of the State’ speech on Thursday.
 
Joe Biden says he ‘absolutely agrees’ with comment that Trump is an ‘illegitimate president’
https://www.insider.com/joe-biden-says-he-agrees-trump-is-illegitimate-president-2019-5
 
Biden CoS and co-president @RonaldKlain: People frequently tell me that I should “get over” the 2000 election and recount.  I haven’t, and I don’t think I ever will.  Sep 6, 2019
 
WH Press Sec @K_JeanPierre: Stolen emails, stolen drone, stolen election ….. welcome to the world of unpresidented Trump  Dec 17, 2016
 
@RNCResearch: Here’s something Joe Biden DOES NOT want you to see.  WATCH: 10 minutes of Democrats denying election results.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1565480585715408896
 
“Since When Can We Not Ask Questions About Our Elections?” – Kari Lake (to) Hypocrite Reporter – “I distinctly remember many people just like you asking a lot of questions about the 2016 election results, nobody tried to shut you up. Nobody tried to tell Hillary Clinton to shut up. Nobody tried to tell Kamala Harris when she was questioning the legitimacy of these electronic voting machines.”… https://www.lifezette.com/video/2022/09/since-when-can-we-not-ask-questions-about-our-elections-kari-lake-pulverizes-hypocrite-reporter/
 
Biden’s hateful rhetoric against Americans presents the GOP with a sterling opportunity
Whenever political leaders lose all political capital due to their misgovernance and have no real issues to base their campaign on, they often resort to focusing on the symbolic — usually referring to “the soul of the nation.”… Instead of being humble and conceding their mistakes, they attack voters for thinking of voting against them while overlooking the myriad catastrophes they presided over
    Most Americans disapprove of Biden; that number is likely to rise after his hateful rhetoric…
    The Democrats have broken every immutable norm in recent times; they already attempted to overthrow the 2016 election; they could very well do this for the midterms…
    Make no mistake: this isn’t the Democrats fired up and ready for war.  This is the rage of the rejected and the dejected.  It is now up to the GOP to make adverts carrying excerpts of Biden’s toxic rhetoric to fire up not only GOP voters but independent voters who may not have watched the entire speech. https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/09/bidens_hateful_rhetoric_against_american_presents_the_gop_with_a_sterling_opportunity_.html
 
Trump held a massive rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.  Trump’s remarks:“Getting permission from a highly political magistrate that the handpicked, the Biden Administration trampled upon my rights and civil liberties… like we are third world nation.”“They rifled through the First Lady’s closet, draws… and did a deed and ugly search of my 16-year-old son’s room”“The FBI and Justice Department have become vicious monsters, controlled by radical left scoundrels lawyers, and the media… who tell them what to do and when to do it.” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1566215045519900672We witnessed one of the most shocking abuses of power by any administration in American history. The shameful raid and break-in of Mar-a-Lago made a mockery of American principles. The world was shocked. The Biden Administration raided the home of their chief political opponent – who is destroying him in all the polls!”  https://twitter.com/RealAmVoice/status/1566215924721541120“Joe Biden gave the most vicious, divisive speech, vilifying 75 million Americans… you’re all enemies of the state. He’s an enemy of the state if you want to know the truth. The enemy of the state is him and the group that controls him… Then the next morning he forgot what he said.”“The danger to democracy is from the radical left. Not the right.”His speech was hatred and anger; BTW the next morning he forgot it…How’d you like the red lighting behind him, like the devil.”“We are going to end the Nancy Pelosi political career, the Biden political career. We’re going to end it. Our country’s going to hell.” (Dig at Biden’s speech)“I will clean this mess up again.”The 2020 Election was rigged and stolen. Republicans must get tougher and stronger and fast.” 
DJT vilified the raid and predicted a monstrous backlash: https://twitter.com/RealAmVoice/status/1566218848969400320
 
@bennyjohnson: Donald Trump and Joe Biden Both held rallies in Wilkes-Barre Pennsylvania this week.
Here is what they looked like back-to-back.  Incredible.  (DJT filled an arena, Joe had a sparce crowd)
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1566230943693676544
 
@JackPosobiec: Biden is considering issuing a ‘preemptive pardon’ to Trump over classified material handling, according to WH staff. (To foster leniency for Hunter and himself when the GOP takes over?)
 
FBI seized wardrobe items, magazines, books and 47 classified folders that were EMPTY during infamous Mar-a-Lago raid – as well as 11,000 documents and photos… unsealed documents reveal
At least 14 items found in the raid are clothing or gift items…
    By far the largest makeup of the materials seized were photographs and documents without classification markings, of which there were thousands found and taken from Trump’s estate…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173719/FBI-took-classified-folders-photographs-clothes-books-Mar-Lago.html
 
Trump FBI raid: DOJ releases more details on documents taken from Mar-a-Lago
List includes classified documents, empty folders with classified markings (The staged pics!)
    A wide assortment of other items, including over 1,000 documents that did not have classified markings, several “Article of Clothing/Gift Item” entries and hundreds of printed news articles… It’s also not clear why investigators seized items labeled “Article of Clothing/Gift Item.” In all, the DOJ said it took 18 such items…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-fbi-raid-doj-releases-more-details-documents-taken-mar-a-lago
 
MSM leftists had a meltdown over the revelation that file covers marked ‘Classified’ were empty.
 
Why Did the FBI Raid Mar-a-Lago?
The FBI raided Trump’s home to seize documents exposing the crimes that the FBI and Justice Department have been committing since 2016…
    The story of the Mar-a-Lago raid begins at the end of Trump’s presidency, when he declassified documents related to Russiagate. Those records contain evidence of how the FBI spied on Trump’s campaign, presidential transition team, and administration. The documents reportedly include transcripts of FBI intercepts of Trump aides Patel has told the press that what Trump declassified on Jan. 19, 2021, constitutes the remainder of the Russiagate records—which is what the FBI was apparently after… With hours left in Trump’s presidency, the DOJ raised “privacy concerns” about Trump’s declassification, and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows agreed to submit the documents for a final review…
    Biden’s DOJ, which was tasked with conducting that review, is staffed with key operatives who targeted Trump starting in 2016, like Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. As Barack Obama’s Homeland Security adviser, Monaco met in the White House with Haines, then deputy national security adviser (and former deputy CIA director), and National Security Adviser Susan Rice, who is now director of Biden’s Domestic Policy Council, to push the Trump-Russia narrative. As far as Monaco and her confederates were concerned, once Meadows turned over the declassified documentsthe national security establishment was in the clear: The documents would never be seen again…
    Did Trump have them? It seems the Justice Department was determined to find out…
    On June 21, Patel announced that he and Solomon had been appointed by Trump to obtain the declassified Russiagate documents from the archives: Patel said he was going to post them on his website. DOJ, however, already knew what Patel and Solomon would only discover a month later: The archives didn’t have the declassified documentsSo, if Patel said he would post them, law enforcement may have wondered, where would he get them from?…
    President Biden told aides he wanted his top law enforcement officer to target Trump. Garland finally resolved to pull the trigger. On Aug. 5, the FBI got the warrant for the raid, which took place three days later… it’s not clear if the agents found them. According to the Times story, the safe in Trump’s closet “did not contain the materials investigators sought.”…
    If the former president does have the documents… and posts them, it might bring the house down on the U.S. national security apparatus and the Democratic administration that it shields…
    The effect of the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago is therefore to obscure the real scandal: U.S. spies committed a series of crimes in their effort to unseat a U.S. president, and then ignored the lawful orders of that president in order to keep their crimes hidden from the American public…
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/fbi-raid-mar-a-lago-trump-russiagate-lee-smith?s=02
 
@mrddmia: President Clinton taped his “oral history of his 8 years in office.”   He hid the 79 audio tapes in his sock drawer. These tapes include the most classified secrets imaginable.  Q. Why wasn’t he charged for espionage, theft of gov’t property, or obstruction?  A. The President.
https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/1565830805229735936/photo/1
 
@Shem_Infinite: AG Barr: “Prosecuting corrupt FBI and DOJ agents that tried to overthrow President Trump would set a terrible precedent.”  Also Barr: “Raiding President Trumps home for documents he already declassified is completely above board and non political”
 
GOP: Treasury ‘runs cover’ for Hunter Biden as it withholds banking docs https://trib.al/HzGuhhB
 
Top Justice Department lawyer was partners with Hunter Biden’s attorney https://trib.al/EJaULGO
 
FBI agent Timothy Thibault hid intel from whistleblower on Hunter and the ‘Big Guy’ Joe Biden
Whistleblowers alleged to Sen. Chuck Grassley that, in the same month as Bobulinski’s FBI interview, then-Assistant Special Agent in Charge Thibault ordered that an investigation into Hunter Biden’s alleged “criminal financial and related activity” be closed…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/04/fbi-agent-timothy-thibault-hid-intel-from-whistleblower-on-hunter-the-big-guy-joe-biden/
 
@julie_kelly2: While Bill Barr spouts off on Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified docs, a little reminder that he punted on prosecuting Comey for provable crime of stealing classified records.
 
DOJ declines to prosecute Comey despite finding that he leaked info Aug. 29, 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-russia-comey/doj-declines-to-prosecute-comey-despite-finding-that-he-leaked-info-idUSKCN1VJ1UO
 
@julie_kelly2: Barr also declined to prosecute Andy McCabe for illegally leaking classified info to the media and lying to investigators about ithttps://t.co/YMXZTqEiuW
 
Comey and Mc Cabe are Swamp/Deep State; so is Barr, another horrible Trump hire.
 
Jon Turley: With Hillary Clinton selling “But Her Emails” hats at $30 a pop, Merrick Garland will have to explain the prospect of one politician going to jail while the other goes retailhttps://t.co/8LYa5qYTJY
 
Evidence appears almost daily that refutes Pelosi, Biden, Garland, and Dems’ incessant but hypocritical incantation: “nobody is above the law.”
 
@WallStreetSilv: When You’ll Read ANYTHING Off a Teleprompter
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1566273289806397442
 
Whoever runs Biden’s twitter on Sunday doubled down on Joe’s ‘enemies of the state shtick: @POTUS: MAGA proposals are a threat to the very soul of this country.   The MAGA agenda represents an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.  It doesn’t respect our Constitution.  It doesn’t believe in the rule of law.  And it doesn’t recognize the will of the people.
 
Biden on Monday in WI: “I want to make it clear up front, not every Republican is a MAGA Republican, not every Republican embraces that extreme ideologyBut the extreme MAGA Republicans in Congress have chosen to go backwards, full of anger, violence, hate and division. But together, we can and we must choose another path.”  https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1566854755149905921
 
@bennyjohnson: Joe Biden shakes and screams [“We beat pharma.”] in Wisconsin… as bewildered audience looks on in terror.  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1566851200645042179
 
@joelpollak: How does @JoeBiden think he “beat Pharma”? He just mandated a vaccine made by Big Pharma and fired people who didn’t take it. I’m pro-vaccine, and I like our pharmaceutical industry for the innovative work it does, but this is just political propaganda delivered by an angry man.
 
Biden met with heckles in poorly attended Wisconsin Labor Day speech
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-biden-met-with-heckles-in-poorly-attended-wisconsin-labor-day-speech
 
@ChadPergram on Sun, Sep 04, 2022: GOP WI Sen Johnson on Fox: The folks on our side are also tired of being called semi fascists. We’re tired of being called potential domestic terrorists. Now, this is the classic tactic of the left. They falsely accuse their opponents of doing exactly what they do.
 
Liberty Arms (gun dealer) billboard: Statistically you are more likely to be killed by Hillary Clinton than an AR-15.  https://twitter.com/AnneNonneemouse/status/1566495550215798786
 
To understand the workings of American politics, you have to understand this fundamental law: Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil.” — Charles Krauthammer
 
Biden brings in John Podesta to look after $370 BILLION in green spending
He served as Bill Clinton’s chief of staff – Also chaired Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11174249/Biden-brings-John-Podesta-look-370-BILLION-green-spending.html
 
Podesta, a Russiagate figure, will dole out billions of dollars from a slush fund to ‘friends of the program’.
 
@JunkScience: August NASA satellite temps in. No warming in almost 8 years — despite lots more CO2August 2022 same temp as August 1998. Climate is a hoax.  https://drroyspencer.com/2022/09/uah-gl
 
@BigJoeBastardi: Flat out horrible year for the phony climate war agenda as major. LARGE SCALE talking points they love to weaponize are opposite of their missive. Global TC activity down again 3rd straight year. Tornadoes under 25th percentile. Artic sea ice 10 year high, Greenland way above SMB
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566449607952957440
 
@EpochTimes: “It has been surprisingly and freakishly quiet in the Atlantic.” There were a total of zero named tropical storms or hurricanes between July 3 and Aug. 30—the first time such a phenomenon has occurred in over 80 years, forecasters notedhttps://t.co/y69q99Edlf
 
NYT: What is the impact of climate change on hurricanes?  June 29, 2022
Scientists say that unusually warm Atlantic surface temperatures have helped to increase storm activity. “It’s very likely that human-caused climate change contributed to that anomalously warm ocean,” said James P. Kossin, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/29/climate/climate-change-hurricanes.html
 
@AlexEpstein: Undeniable climate fact 4: Rising CO2 leads to diminishing warming – Mainstream climate science is unanimous about a conclusion that the public is, shamefully, not made aware of: the “greenhouse effect” of CO2 is a *diminishing* effect, with additional CO2 leading to less warming. (This was ‘the science’ in the seventies and much of the eighties.)
https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1565009939671678976?s=02
 
We’d bet that some greenies will now aver that the lack of hurricanes is a sign of global warning.  Just like when its unseasonably hot, it’s climate change.  When it’s unseasonably cold, it’s climate change.
 
Amazon temporarily shuts down solar rooftops at all US facilities due to fires https://t.co/VcHeIqhemJ
 
With mucho data showing the harm to students due to Covid shutdowns and masks, plus woke agenda outrage, teacher union president Weingarten is trying to divert blame to politicians.  She knows the movement for education vouchers has hit critical mass; so ‘big education’ is facing a crisis. 
 
Randi Weingarten claims politicians make teachers ‘social justice warriors’
Many teachers “can’t teach” certain topics or books, answer children’s questions, and “have to be masks police,” leading to burnout… And that’s not parents. That’s politicians. Parents just want the best for their kids. And so do the teachers,” Weingarten added…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/randi-weingarten-claims-politicians-make-teachers-social-justice-warriors
 
A Black Lives Matter leader is accused of stealing $10 MILLION from the organization
https://notthebee.com/article/a-black-lives-matter-leader-is-being-accused-of-stealing-10-million-from-the-organization
 
Army general declares Americans too fat or criminal to fight in rebuke of service leaders
“This is not an Army problem, this is an American problem.”
    Brunson’s comments run counter to what Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville wrote in a July memo, which stated the service has been unable to win the “war for talent” and find ways to make the Army more attractive to young Americans…
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-general-declares-americans-too-fat-or-criminal-to-fight-in-rebuke-of-service-leaders/
 
‘These Kids Are Dying’ — Inside the Overdose Crisis Sweeping Fort Bragg
A staggering total of 109 soldiers assigned to Fort Bragg died in 2020 and 2021. Dozens have lost their lives there to drug overdoses. Now, their families are demanding answers — and accountability
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/inside-the-overdose-crisis-sweeping-fort-bragg-1396298/
 
Las Vegas investigative journalist stabbed to death outside his home – Las Vegas police say they have leads… German’s reporting covered a wide range of issues, from city inspection standards to the 2017 mass shooting at the Mandalay Bay hotel… https://t.co/lQwleTETnF

 

Greg Hunter..interviewing Dr Pierre Kory

Global CV19 Vax Propaganda Means Mass Casualties – Dr. Pierre Kory

By Greg Hunter On September 3, 2022 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

World renowned CV19 critical care and pulmonary expert Dr. Pierre Kory thinks the CV19 vax is a “humanitarian catastrophe,” and it is being “ignored . . .suppressed and censored” through a well-organized global propaganda campaign.  This propaganda will be responsible for millions of deaths that have already happened and many more millions of CV19 vax deaths in the future.  Dr. Kory explains, “We have data screaming at us everywhere we look.  You can start with the life insurance data, India’s data, Germany’s data, and we know people are dying at unprecedented rates.  That is one thing.  We know that disability is through the roof.  No one has seen VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) with the numbers it is screaming.  Now, we . . . are seeing buried miscarriage rates and spontaneous abortion rates 70% and up to 90% in pregnant women. . . . We are still seeing propaganda and all of these messages to get your (CV19) shot even though there is no logic to it. . . . Maybe people are blindly following these instructions and there is no more critical thinking or the control of the information is leading to mass casualties.  This is literally a humanitarian catastrophe. . . . We have never seen this.  This is a global condition. . . . We have a global catastrophe because the (bad) information has infected almost every country on earth. . . . Wherever you look the data is so ominous.  The myocarditis and dropping dead is incessant.  It’s from every country in the world.  You hear everyday reports of young people doing normal fun activities, like going to the beach or going to the park, and they are dropping dead.”

Dr. Kory is actively trying to find treatments for people harmed by the CV19 vax, but that is not the biggest problem he faces.  Dr. Kory says, “People are being told things (like getting CV19 booster shots) that are putting them at grave risk.  I don’t know how to combat a global technological propaganda instrument.  We have never had that before.  I don’t think we have ever had the same messages and the same stories being shot out 24/7.  I have been saying this for a while, and the world has gone mad because of unrelenting propaganda and censorship.  We have never had this much power and this much propaganda . . . never the same story being told to the entire globe at the same time and the same lie.”

Dr. Kory says, “Not only no more shots, but I would say we need a national cry to stop the vaccine campaign. . . It’s not going to start in America because this is the United States of Pharma.”

This is why cheap, effective drugs such as Ivermectin are being banned here in America and around the world.  Dr. Kory says, “We are at war here.  You cannot have Ivermectin in the marketplace.  It threatens the vaccine, Paxlovid, monoclonal-antibodies and Remdesivir.  Ivermectin is a drug that is the biggest financial threat to the biggest market in pharmaceutical history.”

There is much more in the 49-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Pierre Kory, one of the top pulmonary and Covid Critical Care experts on the planet, who is co-founder of the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (flccc.net) and author of the upcoming book “The War on Ivermectin.”

After the Interview:

All the information is free on the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance website flccc.net.

If you want to preorder Dr. Kory’s book (coming out in October) “The War on Ivermectin,” click here, or click here.

If you want donate to the FLCCC Alliance, click here.

Donate by snail mail below:

FLCCC Alliance

2001 L St NW Suite 500

Washington, DC 20036

end

See you tomorrow

Harvey

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