SEPT 15/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $30.20 TO $1663.80//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $.25 TO $1929//PLATINUM CLOSED UP 25 CENTS TO $908.99//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $23.25 TO $2145.80//ATLANTA FED LOWERS AGAIN 3RD QUARTER GDP TO ONLY .5% (EVENTUALLY IT WILL GO BELOW PAR)//RAILWAY STRIKE AVERTED BUT AT A HUGE LABOUR COST AND MOST LIKELY WILL INFLUENCE OTHER UNIONS TO SEEK HIGHER WAGE SETTLEMENTS//BELLWETHER STOCK FED EX WARNS AND WILL NOT GIVE FORWARD GUIDANCE: THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR TOMORROW’S TRADING//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE MANDATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1668.80 DOWN $30.20 

SILVER: $19.29 DOWN $0.25 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1664.50

SILVER: $19.17

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,139 UP 335

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,752 DOWN 57

Platinum price closing UP $0.24 AT $908.99

Palladium price; closing DOWN $23.25  at $2146.50

END

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,696.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/14/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/16/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 48
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 63
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 13
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 156 60
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 32 6
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 200 200
MONTH TO DATE: 4,864

JPMorgan stopped:   267/775

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

200 NOTICES FOR 20,000 OZ //0.622 TONNES

total notices so far: 4864 contracts for 486,400 oz (15.129 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 42 NOTICES FILED FOR 210,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6369 :  for 31,845,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.25

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.050 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A SMALL SIZED 135  CONTRACTS TO 135,665.   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.06 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.06) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 1045 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; WE DID HAVE SOME  MINOR  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.(SHORT COVERING)

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME MINOR/  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -17

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total 10,255  contracts:  51.275 million oz  OR 5.1275 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1026 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 51.275  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 51.275 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 135 WITH OUR  $0.06 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 893 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// MINOR SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1028 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.140MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 42  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  210,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 741 CONTRACTS  TO 464,415 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:—976  CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $7.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND /STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 36,980 OZ //NEW STANDING 15.7107 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $7.70 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3302 OI CONTRACTS 10.27 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2511  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 464M415

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3302 CONTRACTS  WITH 741 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2511 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3302 CONTRACTS OR 10.270 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2511) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (741): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3302 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 36,980 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

20,747 CONTRACTS OR 2,074,700 OZ OR 64.53 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2075 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 64.53 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  64.53/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 64.53 TONNES (MUCH LESS ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 135 CONTRACT OI TO 135,665 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 893 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 893  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  893 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 135  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 893  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1028  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.140 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.06

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.62 PTS OR 1.16%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.28 PTS OR 0.44%    /The Nikkei closed UP 57.29 OR 0.21%.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.15%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9909//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9999//    /Oil UP TO 87,08  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.93    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER  

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 741 CONTRACTS TO 464,415 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF $7.70  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2511 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2511 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2511 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2511 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 3302  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2511 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 741  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $7.70.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (15.7107),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  15.7107 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $7.70) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3302 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS ADDED TO  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 10.27 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (15.7107 TONNES)

WE HAD 976  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3302 CONTRACTS OR 330200  OZ OR 10.27 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 261,841///  fair//raid/

final gold volumes/yesterday  182,353/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 15

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz49,928.792 oz
Brinks
HSBC
JPMorgan
includes one kilobar



 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 1999.900 oz
Delaware
No of oz served (contracts) today200   notice(s)
20,000  OZ
0.622 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)187 contracts 
18,700 oz
0.5816TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4864 notices
486,400 OZ
15.129 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 32.151 oz  one kilobar

ii) Out of HSBC: 9648.678 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan 40,247.963 oz

total:  49,928.792 oz   

total in tonnes: 1.55 tonnes

Adjustments: 0  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 387 contracts having LOST 406 contracts .

We had 775 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we  gained  369 contracts or an additional 36,900 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST 53 contracts DOWN to 43,092 

November GAINED 128 contracts to stand at 317

December GAINED 773 contracts UP to 376,006

We had 200 notice(s) filed today for 20,000 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  156 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 200 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 60 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4864) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 387 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 200 x 100 oz per contract equals 505,100 OZ  OR 15.7107 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4864) x 100 oz+   (387)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (200} x 100 oz} which equals 505,100 oz standing OR 15.7107 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  15.7107 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,422,430.376 oz   75.34 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,170,221.801 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,379,878.715  OZ (416.17 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,790,343.080 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,957.448. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.82 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 15

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,324,980.731oz

BRINKS
Delaware

Loomis
JPMorgan









 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 535,868.762 oz
HSBC




 
No of oz served today (contracts)42 CONTRACT(S)
210,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)150 contracts 
(750,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6369 contracts
 31,845,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account

i)Into HSBC  535,868.762 oz

total deposit:  535,868.762   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 166.361 million oz/320.341million =51.92% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Loomis:  1,401,953.699 oz

ii) Out of jPMorgan: 904,654.520 oz

iii) Out of Brinks 16,405.820 oz

iv) Out of Delaware  1966.693 oz

total: 2,324,980.731    oz

 adjustments: 2//dealer to customer

Brinks 195,248.320 oz

and

Delaware: 19,984.281 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 45.688 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 320.341 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 192 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 10 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

23 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 33 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

165,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 552 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 54

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 351 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,775

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 42 for  210,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,106// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,127 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6369 x 5,000 oz = 31,845,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(192) and the number of notices served upon today 42  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,369 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (192)  – number of notices served upon today (42) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 32,595,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 45.688 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 32.595 MILLION OZ represents 71.34% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:24,471// est. volume today//    extremely poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 50,223contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 960.56 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 467.050 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Americans Continue To Pile On More And More Debt

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 08:48 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

American consumers continue to cope with rising prices and prop up the sagging economy using their credit cards.

Total consumer debt rose another $23.8 billion in July to a record $4.644 trillion, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve.

On an annual basis, consumer debt rose by 6.2%, moderating somewhat from the last few months as the CPI cooled thanks to a drop in energy prices.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans, but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, US consumers are buried under more than $16.2 trillion in debt.

Consumer credit grew by an average of $30 billion per month through the first seven months of the year.

Americans are burning up their plastic in order to make ends meet. Revolving credit, primarily reflecting credit card debt, rose by another $10.9 billion, an 11.6% annual increase. To put that into perspective, the annual increase in 2019, prior to the pandemic was 3.6%. It’s pretty clear that with stimulus money long gone, Americans have turned to plastic in order to make ends meet as prices continue to skyrocket.

Revolving debt now stands at $1.137 trillion – above the pre-pandemic record.

Americans, by and large, kept their credit cards in their wallets and paid down balances at the height of the pandemic in 2020. This is typical consumer behavior during an economic downturn and the trend was even more pronounced with pandemic stimulus checks. Credit card balances were over $1 trillion when the pandemic began. They fell below that level in 2020 with an 11.2% drop. We saw small upticks in credit card balances in February and March of last year as the recovery began, with a sharp drop in April as another round of stimulus checks rolled out. But Americans started borrowing in earnest again in May 2021. Since then, we’ve seen a steady increase in consumer debt.

Not only are credit card balances growing; consumers are trying to find ways to borrow even more. According to Fed data, Americans opened 233 million new credit card accounts in the second quarter of this year. That was the largest number of new accounts opened in a single quarter since 2008 – the beginning of the Great Recession.

Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $100 billion in Q2 and now stand at $4.22 trillion. That reflects the largest increase in more than 10 years.

Meanwhile, average credit card interest rates have eclipsed the record high of 17.87% set in April 2019. The average annual percentage rates (APR) currently stand at 18.03%. That’s up from 17.5% just a month ago.

The central bank is expected to push rates up another 75 basis points during its September meeting.

This is bad news for Americans depending on credit to pay their bills. With interest rates rising, Americans are paying higher and higher interest charges every month with minimum payments rising. With every Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the cost of borrowing will go up more, putting a further squeeze on American consumers.

Non-revolving credit charted a healthy jump in July, increasing by $12.9 billion, an 4.4% year-on-year jump. This includes auto loans and student loans. Total non-revolving credit now stands at $3.508 trillion.

For months, the mainstream has told us the massive growth in debt was a sign of economic health. Last month, MarketWatch reported, “How much credit households use is seen as a good window into the strength of the economy. Consumers tend to borrow more when times are good and cut back when the economy is weak.” Meanwhile. Fed chair Jerome Powell keeps telling us that “households are in very strong financial shape.” With the growth in debt moderating somewhat (although still high) does this mean the economy is getting shaky?

You probably won’t hear that narrative from the mainstream. But any slowdown in spending is bad news for an economy that relies on people buying stuff. Of course, the slowing of the debt increase likely just reflects slightly lower energy prices in July and not any real change in consumer spending.

The bottom line is that Americans continue to borrow at an excessive rate because they don’t have any other way to make ends meet. People don’t run up their Visa balance month after month to buy groceries when they are in “very strong” financial shape. The stimulus checks are long gone. Savings are being depleted. The average person has no choice but to pull out the plastic. Of course, this is not a sustainable trajectory. A credit card has this inconvenient thing called a limit.

end

Peter Schiff: The Fed Won’t Bend This Inflation Curve

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 12:01 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The CPI data for August came in hotter than expected, sparking the biggest market crash since the 2020 COVID lockdowns. The price of gold also dropped on the news in anticipation of the Federal Reserve taking interest rates higher. Peter Schiff talked about the inflation news on his podcast and said investors need to get gold now before the entry point rises a lot higher. Because at some point the markets are going to figure the Fed can’t bend this inflation curve.

After the CPI data came out, stocks plunged. The Dow Jones fell by over 1,276 points. It was the seventh-biggest drop (based on points) in history. Other stock market indices charted similar declines. The NASDAQ fell 5.16%.

As Peter noted, gold also fell, but not nearly as much as stocks. The yellow metal was off about 1.3%. But gold did manage to close above $1,700, although it traded below that level interday.

The dollar index charted a huge swing, moving from 107.68 prior to the CPI data and then rallying to close at 109.9. Peter said it was one of the biggest moves in the dollar he’s seen.

The markets were preparing for a softer CPI. Everybody was under the impression that inflation had peaked and that it was coming down, and that when we got validation that inflation was coming down by the August CPI, that would take a lot of pressure off the Fed — that it wouldn’t have to raise rates as much because the inflation problem was solved. That’s one of the reasons the dollar sold off. It’s one of the reasons gold and silver rallied. In fact, it’s one of the reasons the stock market had been rallying, because the Fed was going to be taken out of the game. Maybe not completely sidelined, but at least it was going to tone down its rhetoric and maybe not raise rates as much as people thought. But now that we got this hotter than expected number, people think the Fed is going to raise rates more than they thought.”

Peter said the markets still don’t understand that even if the Fed hikes by 100 basis points at the September meeting, it will not bend the inflation curve.

I don’t know why everybody continues to be surprised when the inflation numbers come out worse than expected. They assume that what the Fed is doing is going to work. It’s not going to work. The people who think it is don’t understand the nature of the problem.”

The numbers indicate that Fed can’t win this inflation fight. Part of the solution is positive real interest rates. If you look at all of the Fed tightening cycles since 1973, the central bank has never stopped tightening before the Fed funds rate was higher than the CPI.

As long as we have interest rates below the inflation rate, even if they’re higher, they’re still negative, and negative interest rates put upward pressure on inflation. You can’t fight inflation with negative interest rates. It’s like saying, ‘I’m going to fight this fire by pouring gasoline on it. It’s just that I’m only going to pour a little bit of gasoline, not as much gasoline as I was pouring on before.’”

Clearly, the fire will keep getting bigger.

But the markets don’t seem to get this. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be selling gold into rising inflation.

After all, gold is an inflation hedge. And if investors expect more inflation, they’re going to hedge with gold. And if you expect inflation to continue, gold is going to discount that future inflation into the present, and it’s going to be reflected in the current price of gold.”

The question is when will those expectations change?

How many more months can the CPI come out hotter than expected and investors still believe that inflation is going to go away? How many more rate hikes do we need that are ineffective at reducing inflation before investors figure out that it’s not going to work? And of course, how many rate hikes will the Fed be able to get away with without crashing the stock market? Without crashing the real estate market? Without causing a financial crisis?”

And if the Fed keeps pushing that envelope until it rips, will the Fed continue to hike rates? Or will the Fed pivot when it anticipates or acknowledges the next crisis?

As long as it pivots at all, that means inflation is going to run out of control. And if it is, the dollar needs to go way down and gold needs to go way up.”

Peter said he doesn’t personally think the Fed will get away with very many more rate hikes.

He pointed out that gold didn’t fall all that much given the plunge in stocks. In fact, gold didn’t even close on the lows.

Maybe that’s some indication that investors are beginning to question that narrative. They haven’t completely figured it out yet, but some of the selling may in fact have been exhausted.”

Peter said at some point there will be divergence and gold will start rising when inflation is worse than expected. The dollar will fall. And the long end of the bond market will start getting beat up.

If you’re waiting for a sign, some indication that everything is about to blow up, that’s what you should look for. You should look for a reaction in the bond market and the currency market and the precious metals market that is opposite of the reaction that we’ve been having.”

Peter said you shouldn’t wait for that signal to position yourself.

I think it’s possible that by the time we get that signal, it could be a much worse entry position than the one we have right now. Because the markets can start anticipating that signal before we actually get it. I know it’s going to happen eventually. But when it does happen, that’s when you’ll know the end has finally begun. But before it does, take advantage of other investors’ misunderstanding of what’s going on by increasing your exposure to both gold and silver, and gold and silver mining stocks.”

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Above expectation CPI raises prospects of 1% FOMC rate rise

Well the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure has come in at an above expectation 8.3% increase year-on-year but the Producer Price index (PPI) came in marginally lower year-on-year at 8.7% – lower than expected. But in both cases month –on-month core inflation rates rose sharply prompting prior expectations of a Fed 75 basis point rate rise over a 50 basis point one to switch to a likelihood of a 75 basis point increase over a 100 basis point one to 72:28 in the CME group’s Fedwatch Tool.

As a consequence markets all fell sharply as the likelihood of a looming U.S. recession, as we have been warning all along, grew ever closer. Indeed as we have expressed beforehand we may already be in one as the technical parameters for a recession of two successive quarters of negative GDP growth have already occurred.

The Dow has fallen around 1,400 points over the past couple of days and still appears to be falling. Bitcoin is down well over $2,000 over a similar period and the gold price is off around $35 – a much smaller fall in percentage terms than equities or bitcoin, demonstrating that precious metals tend to be a far safer investment in such times of economic meltdown.

Where does this leave the Fed? Fed chair Powell, and some of his colleagues, have reiterated in recent speeches that the Fed ‘will do what it takes’ to bring inflation down, even if it impinges negatively on some of the Fed’s other priorities of keeping employment levels as high as possible. This could well involve raising interest rates higher and faster than the markets had previously been expecting, and one thus can’t rule out a year-end rate of 4.5% or thereabouts which is definitely higher than had previously been anticipated and certainly, if implemented, could easily tip the U.S. economy into recession, if it were not there already,

One should expect the threat of higher U.S. interest rates to raise the dollar index on the international currency markets which would be a continuing negative factor for gold. However, the ever increasing likelihood that the U.S. economy is heading for recession may be acting as a counter to this and so far dollar strength seems to have been muted.

Ukraine’s recent apparent successes in recapturing some ground from the seemingly impregnable Russian advance has been leading some to suggest that the conflict there is entering a new phase which could lead to a Ukraine victory and a defeat for Putin. In our view this is an extremely dangerous assumption and could lead to Putin employing ever more dangerous weaponry and tactics to regain the military advantage. He is not known for backing down. If this should happen and Russia, for example, starts to use tactical nuclear weapons, who knows where that could lead, It could lead to a huge surge in safe haven assets prices, but equities and bitcoin could be left out in the cold. Hopefully such an eventuality is beyond the pale even for President Putin, but who knows what a wounded bear is capable of?

14 Sep 2022

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Suriname is fighting to give more rights to indigenous

(Lyons/Epinosa/GATA)

Can two new bills reshape indigenous rights and illegal gold mining in Suriname?

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-09-14 20:10Section: Daily Dispatches

By Charles Lyons and Charlie Espinosa
Mongabay.com, Menlo Park, California
Wednesday, September 14, 2022

“We’ve been fighting the government of Suriname for almost 25 years, for recognition of our land rights,” says Jupta Itoewaki, a leader of the Indigenous Wayana people. “The government and leaders don’t feel like they need to consult us.”

Itoewaki has long been at the forefront of a battle to win legal standing for Indigenous and tribal groups, who make up about a quarter of the population of Suriname, the smallest country in South America. Along with Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname is the only Amazonian country or territory not to have ratified Convention 169, a 1989 treaty from the International Labour Organization that legally recognizes Indigenous and tribal peoples’ right to self-determination.

Such rights have not been recognized despite rulings in 2006, 2007, and 2015 by the Inter-American Human Rights Court against Suriname for violating the rights of Indigenous groups.

And as Indigenous activists in Suriname recently pointed out, even the United Nations continues to fail to be sensitive to the issue. 

On a trip to the country in July, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres celebrated Suriname’s record of preserving its forests, calling the country an example for the rest of the world. 

Two associations of tribal and Indigenous leaders, VIDS and KAMPOS, sent a letter to Guterres and the U.N. reminding them that Suriname’s environmental and human rights records have been far from the best and pleading for legislation to defend their rights. …

… For the remainder of the report:

END

This is terrific:  Money Metals Exchange is growing fast and it is now building a huge 40,000 sq foot facility

(MME/GATA)

Money Metals Exchange builds largest gold and silver depository in western U.S.

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-09-14 20:24Section: Daily Dispatches

From Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho
Wednesday, September 14, 2022

EAGLE, Idaho — Money Metals Exchange, a nationally focused precious metals company, announced today it is breaking ground on a 40,000-square-foot vaulting and fulfillment facility in Idaho.

The $21 million facility will be the largest private depository of its kind in the western United States. It could be expanded to 60,000 square feet.

“The overwhelming growth in demand for physical gold and silver as financial insurance combined with the great pricing, customer service, and content offered by Money Metals have led to dramatic growth in our business since 2019,” said Money Metals Exchange President Stefan Gleason.

“Americans are waking up to the risks we all face from growing attacks on our freedom and financial security, combined with a runaway inflation situation fueled by debt-funded government spending and Federal Reserve monetary debasement.”

The nationally acclaimed metals dealer has outgrown its existing facility, constructed in 2014, with its employee count rising from 25 to nearly 100 during the past three years.

Money Metals now ships more than 40,000 gold and silver orders across America each month, with thousands of other investors choosing to securely store their precious metals in individually segregated accounts at the Money Metals Depository. …

… For the remainder of the announcement:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/09/14/money-metals-breaks-ground-on-largest-gold-depository-in-the-western-united-states-002593

END

Unbelievable:  Biden funnels billions to the Taliban in Afghanistan via the BIS

(New York Sun/GATA)

New York Sun: Biden will funnel billions to Taliban via BIS

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-09-14 20:46Section: Daily Dispatches

The Folly of Biden’s ‘Afghan Fund’

From The New York Sun
Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Not since Robert Strange McNamara used the World Bank to steer funds backed by American taxpayers to the North Vietnamese has there been as outrageous a move as President Biden’s decision to set aside billions of dollars to fund Afghanistan in the Taliban era. 

Mr. Biden’s démarche, which involves a new Swiss-based entity called “The Afghan Fund,” defies credulity by vowing to aid the Afghan people without propping up the Taliban regime.

Mr. Biden insists that the money, some $3.5 billion, will not go to the Taliban. He claims that the funds will “be used for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan while keeping them out of the hands of the Taliban,” a Treasury statement today notes. 

This runs contrary to a basic rule of economics, the fungibility of money. Aid sent to the Afghan people relieves pressure on the Taliban, enabling them to prioritize their murderous intentions.

Yet the “Taliban are not a part of the Afghan Fund,” Mr. Biden blithely contends, “and robust safeguards have been put in place to prevent the funds from being used for illicit activity.” Such assurances are the rationalizations of the appeasement-minded, among them the deputy State secretary, Wendy Sherman, who vows that the billions will “improve economic stability for the people of Afghanistan while continuing to hold the Taliban accountable.”

It should reassure no one concerned about the ethics of this plan that the new “Afghan Fund” will operate out of that haven for transparency in financial transactions, Switzerland. The money in question, currently on deposit at the New York Fed, will now migrate into an account with the Bank for International Settlements, and the White House promises “an external auditor will monitor and audit the Afghan Fund as required by Swiss law.” …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.nysun.com/article/the-folly-of-bidens-afghan-fund

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: RICE

The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

This wasn’t supposed to happen.  For months, I have been writing article after article about the rapidly growing global food crisis, but even though drought is devastating so many other crops all over the planet I thought that there would be plenty of rice in 2023.  Unfortunately, I was wrong.  As you will see below, some of the biggest rice producers in the entire world are being hit really hard, and rice production is going to be way below expectations this year.  Of course rice is one of the primary staples that poor nations depend upon, and so this is a really big deal.  If there is a serious shortage of rice in 2023, that is going to have enormous implications for all of us.

An announcement that India just made should be front page news all over the globe right now.

India usually accounts for over 40 percent of all worldwide rice shipments, but now they have placed severe restrictions on all future exports this year…

India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice on Thursday as the world’s biggest exporter of the grain tries to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.

India exports rice to more than 150 countries, and any reduction in its shipments would increase upward pressure on food prices, which are already rising because of drought, heat-waves and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Did you catch that last sentence?

150 different nations depend on rice from India.

So where are they going to get their rice?

Normally, India exports more rice than the next four largest exporters combined

India’s rice exports touched a record 21.5 million tons in 2021, more than the combined shipments of the world’s next four biggest exporters of the grain: Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.

Europe certainly isn’t going to make up the difference.

Italy is the biggest rice producer in the European Union, and it is being projected that rice production in that nation will be down about 30 percent this year due to the endless drought that Europe is currently experiencing…

The unfavorable weather has already taken a serious toll on the rice industry. Estimates say farmers are expecting to lose around 30 percent of their yields this year, and the industry has already hemorrhaged around $3 billion as a result of the drought. Many of the most stricken fields are in the regions of Lombardy and Piedmont, which together produce around 90 percent of Italy’s rice.

Rice production is going to be way down in the United States as well.

California usually produces about 20 percent of all U.S. rice, but this year a severe lack of water for agricultural purposes is making things exceedingly difficult for rice growers in the state…

Rice farmers in Colusa County, 60 miles north of Sacramento, received 18% of the federal water shipments to which they are entitled, far less than normal and too little for many to grow the crop at all.

“Even in a drought, rice farmers have been able to get a fairly high percentage of the water they had rights to,” said Tim Johnson, chief executive of the California Rice Commission. “Now they are experiencing drought at a level they’ve never seen before.”

What we are witnessing is truly unprecedented.

I know that this may be hard to believe, but it is being reported that “about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest” in 2022.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

New satellite imagery shows a large swath of California’s rice fields has been left barren without harvest as fears of a ‘mini dust bowl’ emerge due to diminishing water supplies.

Kurt Richter, a third-generation rice farmer in Colusa, the rice capital of California, told San Francisco Chronicle that fields upon fields of the grain have already transformed into a “wasteland.”

A report via the US Department of Agriculture shows about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest. This could potentially drive up sushi prices nationwide because most of the rice produced in the state is for just that.

Of course many other crops are being hit extremely hard as well.

California normally produces approximately a third of our vegetables and about two-thirds of our fruits and nuts, and the lack of production this year is already starting to show up on our store shelves

High temperatures in the Western U.S. are hitting the produce industry, damaging crops, shrinking shipments, and leaving fewer leafy greens and fruits on supermarket shelves.

A California grower said some of his lettuce leaves are turning brown and melting in the fields because of crop diseases intensified by the high temperatures. In Pennsylvania, a retailer said its stores went a week without having strawberries to sell. A New York distributor has substituted honeydew melons for watermelons, which have become scarce.

Supermarkets say they are giving less shelf space to products with weather-induced discolorations, bruises or burns. Stores are cutting prices on poor-quality items to avoid getting stuck with them, and increasingly receiving products from Canada, Florida, New Jersey and Ohio instead of California, long the go-to source for U.S. grocers.

This crisis is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

I have been encouraging my readers to get prepared for a very long time, and I hope that you have taken that advice.

All over the planet, agricultural production is going to be way below original projections this year.  For example, just check out what is happening to olive oil production in Spain

In July, temperatures broke records to top 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) across parts of France, Spain, Italy and Portugal. By early August, sweltering heat and a lack of rainfall had pushed almost two-thirds of land in the European Union into drought conditions, according to the European Drought Observatory.

Olive oil producers have been hit hard. Kyle Holland, a pricing analyst for oilseeds and grains at Mintec, a commodities data company, expects a “dramatic reduction” of between 33% and 38% in Spain’s olive oil harvest that begins in October.

Spain is the world’s biggest producer of olive oil, accounting for more than two-fifths of global supply last year, according to the International Olive Council. Greece, Italy and Portugal are also major producers.

For a lot more data points on the rapidly growing global food crisis, please see my previous article entitled “A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages”.

None of us have ever faced anything like this.

The food that will not be harvested in the months ahead will not be on our store shelves in 2023.

Food prices are going to rise to absolutely ridiculous levels, and the head of the UN is already warning of “multiple famines” next year.

This is not a drill.  Food shortages really are coming, and our world will be changing in wild and unpredictable ways.

END

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.9909

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9999

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 37.62 PTS OR 1.16%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 83.28 PTS OR 0.44%

2. Nikkei closed UP 57.29 PTS OR 0.21% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  MOSTLY GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  109.35/Euro RISES TO 0.9988

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.248/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.35/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.743%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.08% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.89%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.23//

3j Gold at $1685.80 silver at: 19.37  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 25/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.64//

3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.33DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9562– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9552well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.453  UP 4  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.503 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,27

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Fall, Yields Rise Ahead Of Econ Data Onslaught

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 07:54 AM

Extremely illiquid US equity futures (top of book depth is between $1-2MM) dropped after trading flat for much of the overnight session, ahead of a packed data slate today including retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for August, the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for September, and the weekly initial jobless claims, as Treasury and Bund yield rose after Russian energy supplier Gazprom warned that nearly full EU gas inventories can’t guarantee a safe winter with money markets raise tightening wagers, pricing as much as 193bps of ECB hikes by July versus 186bps on Wednesday (and as much as 210bps of Fed hikes by March). As of 7:15am ET, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1% after a tumultuous few days of trading following the consumer price index reading; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%. Both underlying indexes had slumped on Tuesday after the report, nearly erasing a four-day rally, before slightly rebounding on Wednesday. European stocks were flat, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index reversed earlier gains to trade down. The dollar resumed its rise while the yuan dropped below the critically important 7.00 level against the greenback. Ethereum completed the merge and traded around $1600 without any big moves in either direction.

In US premarket trading, Netflix advanced 2.2% after Evercore ISI raised the stock to outperform from in-line, saying that Netflix’s launch of an ad-supported plan is one of the biggest catalysts in the internet sector over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, railway operators Union Pacific Corp and CSX Corp gained after the US government said railroad companies and unions representing more than 100,000 workers reached a tentative agreement in a breakthrough that looks to avert a labor disruption that risked adding supply-chain strains to the world’s largest economy. Here are some other notable premarket movers

  • Danaher (DHR US) shares rise 4.2% in premarket trading after the company says it will spin off environmental and applied solutions unit. Analysts responded positively to the news, saying a more streamlined Danaher has potential to unlock value.
  • Union Pacific (UNP US) shares rise 4.7% in premarket trading as US railroad companies and unions representing more than 100,000 workers reached a tentative agreement, the government said, a breakthrough that looks to avert a labor disruption.
  • Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) shares advance 3.2% in US premarket trading after the Chinese megacity of Chengdu said it had controlled the spread of Covid-19 and would start easing the lockdown.
  • Devon Energy (DVN US) declines 1% in premarket trading as the stock was cut to neutral at JPMorgan in note titled ‘E&P Fall Playbook,’ while EOG Resources (EOG US), Permian Resources (PR US) and Vermilion Energy (VET CN) shares were upgraded.
  • Watch US cryptocurrency-exposed stocks as digital tokens traded in tight ranges Thursday while Ethereum completed the crypto world’s biggest and most ambitious software upgrade to date. Keep an eye on shares including Coinbase (COIN US), Marathon Digital (MARA US), Riot Blockchain (RIOT US), Ebang (EBON US).
  • Watch department store shares as Jefferies says there are still selective opportunities within the sector, upgrading Nordstrom (JWN US) to buy and downgrading Kohl’s (KSS US) to hold.
  • Keep an eye on hotel operators as Berenberg upgraded Marriott (MAR US), Hyatt (H US) and Hilton Worldwide (HLT US) shares to buy, saying the accelerating recovery in lodging performance hasn’t yet been reflected in share prices of these companies.
  • Watch Phillips 66 (PSX US) stock as it was cut to peer perform at Wolfe, which said that competitors are better positioned to deliver catalysts for shareholder returns.

Traders have been extremely focused on US economic data, with a decline in producer prices providing some relief after Tuesday’s consumer inflation jolt saw wagers for rate increases ratchet higher and stocks slump the most in two years. Investors are now bracing for the Fed’s meeting next week, with some concerned that the central bank can hike rates by as much as 100 basis points. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on fresh jobs, manufacturing and retail numbers later Thursday for further clues on the path of monetary policy.

“It still seems unlikely the Fed will go by more than 75 basis points at this point despite the collective freakout of the past couple of days,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. Retail sales figures “could reinforce this hawkish narrative if we get another strong number.”

Swaps traders are pricing in a 75 basis point hike when the Fed meets next week, with odd for a full-point move dropping to 20% from almost 50% two days ago, after JPM said that it is unlikely that the Fed will rise a full percent. The continued rise in rate-sensitive Treasuries deepened the curve inversion to a level unseen this century.

Meanwhile, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy. A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday, which is odd since the market is already pricing in rates rising to well over 4%. But then again “cash is trash” or something…

“Markets seem torn between a bearish sentiment on one hand, supported by lingering macro threats in a tighter liquidity environment, and dip buyers on the other who continue to bet on the inflation peak,” said Pierre Veyret, an analyst at ActivTrades. “Most benchmarks aren’t registering strong and significant bullish corrections following Tuesday’s sell-off, but continue to trade sideways in a volatile manner, which highlights the ‘wait and see’ situation ahead of today’s new batch of US data, tomorrow’s EU CPI report and next week’s Fed decision on rates.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 index rose 0.2%. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.5%, CAC 40 underperforms. Banks, miners and health care are the strongest-performing sectors. European banks rose to a three-month high on Thursday, with Spanish banks among the best performers after a local website said the government is open to modifying the tax it plans to impose on windfall profits. Also boosting sentiment on the sector, Morgan Stanley upgraded its view on European banks to attractive

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks extended their recent weakness as investors remained cautious over tighter Federal Reserve policy, with losses in China weighing on the regional benchmark. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased earlier gains to fall as much as 0.4%, on track to fall for a third day. Financials and energy shares advanced the most, while technology stocks were the biggest drag.  Chinese stocks led declines in the region as a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nears, an event that traders say raises geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China’s kept its key rate unchanged while draining liquidity from the banking system. An easing of lockdown in the Chinese megacity of Chengdu was insufficient to provide reassurance. Asian markets were jittery ahead of the Fed’s policy decision next week, though a month-on-month decline in US producer prices offered some relief. Traders are expecting an outsized interest rate increase by the Fed to curb persistent inflation.

“Overall risk sentiments will continue to carry a cautious tone,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note. “The absence of any clear resolution in China’s Covid-19 policy and uncertainty on further moderation in economic conditions ahead remain a weighing block for risk sentiments.”  Markets in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong were among those in the green.

Japanese equities edged higher as investors assess the Fed’s hawkish stance and await further data that would provide clearer signals on the direction of the global economy.  The Topix Index rose 0.2% to close at 1,950.43, while the Nikkei advanced 0.2% to 27,875.91. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 0.9%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,100 rose and 926 fell, while 143 were unchanged. “US stocks have calmed down and there is a sense of relief buying,” said Masayuki Otani, a chief market strategist at Securities Japan. “But there is still a wait-and-see mood ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and US retail sales to be announced tonight, Japan time.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.2% to close at 6,842.90, boosted by gains in energy shares and banks.  Australian unemployment unexpectedly rose in August, the first increase in 10 months, a result that supports the Reserve Bank’s signal of a potential shift to smaller interest-rate increases. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 11,658.94. Shares of Wellington-listed Pushpay fell 11%, after a report that a pending buyout of the digital payments firm may be nearing collapse.

In Fx, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is flat. NOK and JPY are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, as CHF and EUR outperform. Asian currencies remained at risk from a strong greenback. The offshore yuan weakened above 7 per dollar for the first time since July 2020. The yen declined to trade around 143.6 per dollar after it rallied away from just under the closely-watched 145 level Wednesday on signs the Bank of Japan was preparing an intervention. Ominously, despite the plunge in the yen, Japan’s trade hit a record deficit in August.

  • The euro traded little changed, slightly below parity against the dollar.
  • The pound led G-10 losses, with focus turning to next week’s Bank of England decision. Demand for one- week sterling-dollar downside protection covering the BOE meeting is around the least since before the Feb. decision, perhaps reflecting the drop in spot. Cable one-week implied volatility touches 14.5%, a level unseen since Sept. 9, when the meeting was delayed
  • The yen fell as wariness over potential FX intervention from Japan receded, undermined by Japan’s trade deficits and expectations the US Fed will retain its hawkish stance. The government bond yield curve steepened after a weak 20-year auction
  • Japan’s unadjusted trade deficit expanded to 2.82 trillion yen ($19.7 billion) last month, the finance ministry reported Thursday. The gap was far larger than economists’ estimates and extends the sequence of red ink to 13 months, the longest stretch since 2015
  • Australia’s sovereign bonds extended opening declines after a government report showed employers added workers last month, even as the jobless rate rose. The Aussie traded in a tight range

In rates, Treasury futures traded near session lows after grinding lower during Asia session and European morning, leaving yields cheaper by about 5bp across long-end of the curve. US 10-year yields trade around 3.45%, cheaper by nearly 5bp vs Wednesday’s close; front-end outperforms slightly; 2-year German yields cheaper by 8bp on the day following hawkish remarks by ECB policy makers Holzmann and Kazaks late Wednesday. US session features packed economic data slate headed by retail sales. Corporate bond sales may go forward after some issuers stood down over past two days.

European bonds slipped: Bunds, Italian bonds fell as money markets wagered on a faster ECB tightening pace following hawkish remarks from policy makers Holzmann and Kazaks late Wednesday. Bund yields rise between 4-2bps across the curve. Gilts outperform bunds and USTs. Treasury 10-year yield up 3.8bps to 3.44%.

In commodities, oil fluctuated as traders grappled with concerns about global demand and assessed comments from the US on refilling strategic reserves. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.2% to near $88.33. Natural gas increased as traders assessed Europe’s steps to contain the energy crisis, with governments making plans to shut down power in some places to avoid a total collapse of the system this winter. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near $1,687/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% to around $19.

Bitcoin meanders around USD 20k and Ethereum fell under USD 1.6k after completing the Ethereum Merge.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for August, the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for September, and the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Centeno. Lastly, earnings releases include Adobe.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,949.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 418.54
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 152.10
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 499.22
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 27,875.91
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,950.43
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 18,930.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,199.92
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 60,020.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,842.89
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,401.83
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.75%
  • Euro little changed at $0.9980
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,688.07
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 109.73

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Shortly before invading Ukraine in February, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” friendship. Yet even as Russian forces suffer humiliating losses on the battlefield, Putin shouldn’t expect much help from Xi at their first meeting since the invasion
  • China is considering allowing its oil refiners to export more fuel in an attempt to revive its economy, in what would be a reversal from a focus on minimizing emissions
  • Investors in high-risk emerging-market debt are finally seeing positive returns as fears of an economic meltdown ease. In a reversal of fortunes from the first half of the year, junk- rated emerging corporate and sovereign bonds in dollars have returned 7.2% in the past two months, according to Bloomberg indices. That follows a brutal 18% slide until June, marking the worst year since the 2008 credit crisis
  • Germany will likely face “waves” of gas shortages this winter, Klaus Mueller, president of the country’s energy regulator, told Handelsblatt in an interview published on Thursday
  • Swedish long-term inflation expectations staying put in July offered a rare piece of good news for the country’s central bank, which looks set to step up interest-rate hikes after a string of higher-than-expected inflation outcomes
  • Swedish right-wing opposition parties are intensifying negotiations on forming a new government, after Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced her resignation on Wednesday

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia stocks mostly traded with mild gains after the slight reprieve on Wall Street where inline PPI data provided some solace from inflationary woes, although mixed data and hawkish central bank expectations scuppered a broad recovery. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and financials but with upside capped after the miss on jobs data. Nikkei 225 eked mild gains as expectations of looming stimulus and looser border controls offset the mixed trade data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the latest policy support pledges by China including an extension of tax reliefs for small firms and a CNY 200bln relending facility by the PBoC, while the easing of lockdown restrictions in some cities also failed to spur risk appetite as participants digest the PBoC MLF announcement in which it partially rolled over maturing loans and maintained the rate at 2.75%, as expected.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 400bln vs CNY 600bln maturing via 1-year MLF with the rate kept at 2.75%.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9101 vs exp. 6.9153 (prev. 6.9116).
  • Singapore to Create Up to 20,000 Finance Jobs in Five Years
  • Iron Ore Steadies as Easing of Chengdu Curbs Spurs Optimism
  • China Holds Key Rate, Withdraws Liquidity Amid Yuan Defense
  • Aluminum Leads Metals Up With China Energy Woes Hitting Supplies
  • Korea’s Housing Market Falls Most Since Global Financial Crisis
  • South Korea FX authorities were reportedly seen selling USD to curb the KRW’s fall, according to multiple dealers cited by Reuters.
  • China Securities Journal said the domestic economy is poised for a rebound in Q3.
  • Japan will drop a ban on individual tourist visits and remove a cap on daily arrivals with PM Kishida expected to announce changes in the coming days, according to Nikkei.

European bourses modestly extended on the gains seen at the open despite a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts, but ahead of Q3 quad-witching tomorrow. European sectors are mostly firmer but with no defensive/cyclical bias. Stateside, US equity futures trade sideways with a mild upside bias and a relatively broad-based performance seen across the major contracts.

Top European News

  • Europe Gas Surges as Traders Weigh Efficacy of EU’s Intervention
  • Stellantis May Make Own Energy as Europe Braces for ‘Chaos’
  • Eni CEO Says Italy Can Make It Through Winter Without Russia Gas
  • Ericsson Drops on Credit Suisse Double Downgrade; Nokia Raised
  • Iron Ore Steadies as Easing of Chengdu Curbs Spurs Optimism

FX

  • DXY has been waning off its 109.92 best towards 109.50, but the Buck extended gains against some EM currencies.
  • Divergence is seen between the traditional havens, with CHF gaining and JPY among the laggards.
  • The rest of the G10s are trading relatively flat against the USD.

Fixed Income

  • Choppy and erratic price action is seen in the complex.
  • The short end of the UK rate curve stages a more emphatic and impressive recovery to the extent that the ripples are reaching Gilts
  • Bunds sit midway between 143.63-142.83 parameters, OATs and Bonos have recouped some pre-French and Spanish auction downside
  • T-note is lagging within a 114-20+/115-01 range ahead of a very busy US agenda.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are choppy after settling higher yesterday,
  • Spot gold meanders just above its YTD low (USD 1,680.25/oz) and the 2021 trough at 1,676.10.
  • Base metals are flat/mixed in directionless trade, with 3M LME Copper in a tight range under USD 8,000/t.
  • Russia’s Gazprom says demand rises for long-term Russian gas export contracts including from Europe, via Al Jazeera

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 227,000, prior 222,000
    • Continuing Claims, est. 1.48m, prior 1.47m
  • 08:30: Aug. Import Price Index MoM, est. -1.3%, prior -1.4%; YoY, est. 7.7%, prior 8.8%
    • Export Price Index MoM, est. -1.1%, prior -3.3%; YoY, est. 12.4%, prior 13.1%
  • 08:30: Aug. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.4%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
    • Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
  • 08:30: Sept. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 2.2, prior 6.2
  • 08:30: Sept. Empire Manufacturing, est. -12.9, prior -31.3
  • 09:15: Aug. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.6%
    • Capacity Utilization, est. 80.2%, prior 80.3%
    • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.1%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: July Business Inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 1.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Following Tuesday’s dramatic slump after the US CPI release, global markets have shown signs of stabilising over the last 24 hours. It was hardly a great performance and was more driven by the absence of bad news rather than any actively good news, but the S&P 500 did manage to recover +0.34% on the day after its worst session in over two years. Treasuries also steadied to an extent, with some support from the fact that the PPI release yesterday wasn’t as bad as some had feared. Nevertheless, there are still a number of headwinds as markets turn their attention towards next week’s all-important FOMC meeting, and investors are continuing to price in an increasingly hawkish response from central banks across the world.

When it comes to that FOMC meeting next week, futures are still fully pricing in a third consecutive 75bps hike, but equities were supported by the fact that a bumper 100bps move is now perceived as less likely than it was shortly after the CPI release. In fact, looking at Fed funds futures, the peak pricing for next week’s meeting has come down from an intraday high of 87.0bps on Tuesday to 81.3bps by yesterday’s close. But while a 100bps hike next week is being seen as less likely, if you look beyond next week, it’s clear that markets are still expecting the Fed to remain hawkish, with the peak rate priced in for March 2023 actually rising by +7.3bps on the day to 4.39%, which implies more than 200bps of further tightening on top of where we already are.

Those diminishing expectations of a 100bps move were in part thanks to a somewhat weaker-than-expected PPI print from the US. Unlike the CPI, the headline monthly reading was in line with expectations and showed a -0.1% decline in prices, with the year-on-year measure falling back to +8.7% (vs. +8.8% expected). Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr Treasuries fell by -0.4bps to 3.41%, moving off from their intraday peak of 3.47% at one point, and yields have only seen a modest rise of +1.7bps again this morning. The decline was driven by lower real yields, with the 10yr yield down -3.4bps on the day to 0.93%, coming off its post-2019 closing peak from the previous session.

That decline in Treasury yields echoed what we saw in Europe yesterday, where those on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps) and OATs (-1.0bps) both moved lower. We did have some ECB speakers yesterday, including France’s Villeroy, who said that for the Euro Area “R* can be estimated as being as below or close to 2% in nominal terms, and we could be there by the end of the year”. Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Lane said that “it was appropriate to take a major step that frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly-accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will support a timely return of inflation to our target.” As with the Fed, markets were pricing an increasingly hawkish profile of rate hikes, and by yesterday’s close a further 135bps rate hikes were expected at the two remaining meetings this year.

Staying on Europe, we heard more on the EU’s energy plans for the winter ahead in Commission President Von der Leyen’s State of the Union address yesterday. The measures proposed included a temporary revenue cap on “inframarginal” electricity producers, which would be set at €180 per megawatt-hour, with surplus revenues above the cap used to support energy consumers. In addition, there was a windfall tax proposal on other activities in the oil, gas, coal and refinery sectors which would be applied on 2022 profits that are more than 20% above the average profits over the most recent 3 years. In the meantime, we heard that France would be capping the increase in energy prices for households to 15% from January, and the country’s power-grid operator said that they may have to issue alerts to encourage a reduction in energy consumption over the next six months. European natural gas futures continued to rebound from their one-month low on Monday, gaining +9.70% to €218 per megawatt-hour.

With oil and gas prices putting in a strong performance yesterday, that meant that the energy sector outperformed other equities on both sides of the Atlantic, supporting the S&P 500 to make its +0.34% gain on the day. Otherwise, tech stocks were another outperformer as they recovered some of their Tuesday losses, with the NASDAQ advancing +0.74%. Over in Europe, equities caught up with the late US losses from the previous session, and the STOXX 600 (-0.87%) and the DAX (-1.23%) lost ground for a second day running.

Here in the UK, gilts outperformed after the latest CPI release for August came in slightly below expectations. That marked a contrast with the upside surprise from the US the previous day, since year-on-year CPI fell to +9.9% (vs. +10.0% expected). However, there were similarities to the US in that some of the details were much less positive, with core CPI rising to +6.3% (vs. +6.2% expected). However, that didn’t stop gilts outperforming their counterparts elsewhere, with 10yr yields down -3.8bps on the day.

Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have also stabilised for the most part, with the Hang Seng (+0.46%) and the Nikkei (+0.17%) advancing after their sharp losses during the previous session, although the Kospi (-0.25%) has moved lower once again. The biggest underperformer are equities in mainland China this morning, where the Shanghai Composite (-1.01%) and the CSI 300 (-0.71%) have built on the previous day’s losses after the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.75% after being lowered by 10bps in August. Furthermore, they withdrew a net 200bn yuan via the MLF from the banking system as expected.The PBOC’s announcement to squeeze liquidity indicates their concern over capital outflows as the central bank is trying to reduce pressure on the yuan emanating from a divergent monetary policy with the Fed.

Otherwise in overnight trading, US stock futures are slightly higher with those on the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.05%) both advancing ahead of numerous economic indicators coming out today, including retail sales and industrial production for August. Speaking of data, Japan recorded a record trade deficit of 2.82tn yen in August (vs. 2.39tn yen expected) after higher energy prices and the weaker yen pushed up import costs.

Elsewhere, our colleagues in the European Leveraged Finance Research team have just published their quarterly top trade ideas. You can find the report here.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for August, the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for September, and the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Centeno. Lastly, earnings releases include Adobe.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

US equity futures trade sideways with a mild upside bias, but the overall tone of the market is tentative – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 06:48 AM

  • European bourses modestly extended on the gains seen at the open despite a lack of fresh fundamental; US equity futures trade sideways 
  • DXY has been waning off its 109.92 best towards 109.50, but the Buck extended gains against some EM currencies
  • Choppy price action seen in the fixed income and crude complexes; spot gold eyes multi-year lows
  • White House said the tentative railway labour agreement reached is an important win for the economy; union needs to ratify deal
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, SCO Summit

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

15th September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, SCO Summit
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
  • Click here for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit primer.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says ammonia pipeline exports were blocked by the Ukrainian side.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • China has lodged solemn representation with the US side on the US Senate panel to boost ties with Taiwan, according to Reuters.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

  • Armenia said an agreement on a ceasefire was reached and hopes Azerbaijan will keep the ceasefire, according to the National Security Council Secretary cited by OC Media via Twitter.

OTHER

  • South Korean President Yoon is to hold one-on-one meetings with US President Biden and Japanese PM Kishida next week, according to Yonhap.
  • Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan are to discuss deliveries of Russian gas and partial payments in TRY and RUB, according to Sputnik sources
  • Russian President Putin said work on a “strategic” Russia-Iran cooperation agreement are at a “final stage”, Sputnik reports.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses modestly extended on the gains seen at the open despite a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts, but ahead of Q3 quad-witching tomorrow.
  • European sectors are mostly firmer but with no defensive/cyclical bias.
  • Stateside, US equity futures trade sideways with a mild upside bias and a relatively broad-based performance seen across the major contracts.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has been waning off its 109.92 best towards 109.50, but the Buck extended gains against some EM currencies.
  • Divergence is seen between the traditional havens, with CHF gaining and JPY among the laggards.
  • The rest of the G10s are trading relatively flat against the USD.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Choppy and erratic price action is seen in the complex.
  • The short end of the UK rate curve stages a more emphatic and impressive recovery to the extent that the ripples are reaching Gilts
  • Bunds sit midway between 143.63-142.83 parameters, OATs and Bonos have recouped some pre-French and Spanish auction downside
  • T-note is lagging within a 114-20+/115-01 range ahead of a very busy US agenda.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent are choppy after settling higher yesterday,
  • Spot gold meanders just above its YTD low (USD 1,680.25/oz) and the 2021 trough at 1,676.10.
  • Base metals are flat/mixed in directionless trade, with 3M LME Copper in a tight range under USD 8,000/t.
  • Russia’s Gazprom says demand rises for long-term Russian gas export contracts including from Europe, via Al Jazeera
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin meanders around USD 20k and Ethereum fell under USD 1.6k after completing the Ethereum Merge.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • ECB’s Makhlouf said persistent inflation is damaging to economic stability, via Bloomberg.
  • ECB Vice President de Guindos noted that spreads are a little wider, but are under control. He said deteriorating inflation outlook with record-high inflation rates expected to stay elevated, well above our target, with risks primarily on the upside.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • White House said the tentative railway labour agreement reached is an important win for the economy; rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, peace of mind on health care costs, via Reuters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks mostly traded with mild gains after the slight reprieve on Wall Street where inline PPI data provided some solace from inflationary woes, although mixed data and hawkish central bank expectations scuppered a broad recovery.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in energy and financials but with upside capped after the miss on jobs data.
  • Nikkei 225 eked mild gains as expectations of looming stimulus and looser border controls offset the mixed trade data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the latest policy support pledges by China including an extension of tax reliefs for small firms and a CNY 200bln relending facility by the PBoC, while the easing of lockdown restrictions in some cities also failed to spur risk appetite as participants digest the PBoC MLF announcement in which it partially rolled over maturing loans and maintained the rate at 2.75%, as expected.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 400bln vs CNY 600bln maturing via 1-year MLF with the rate kept at 2.75%.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9101 vs exp. 6.9153 (prev. 6.9116).
  • South Korea FX authorities were reportedly seen selling USD to curb the KRW’s fall, according to multiple dealers cited by Reuters.
  • China Securities Journal said the domestic economy is poised for a rebound in Q3.
  • Japan will drop a ban on individual tourist visits and remove a cap on daily arrivals with PM Kishida expected to announce changes in the coming days, according to Nikkei.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Aug) -2.8T vs. Exp. -2.4T (Prev. -1.4T, Rev. -1.4T)
  • Japanese Exports YY (Aug) 22.1% vs. Exp. 23.6% (Prev. 19.0%)
  • Japanese Imports YY (Aug) 49.9% vs. Exp. 46.7% (Prev. 47.2%)
  • Australian Employment (Aug) 33.5k vs. Exp. 35.0k (Prev. -40.9k)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
  • New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ, SA (Q2) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -0.2%)
  • New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY, SA (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 1.2%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.62 PTS OR 1.16%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.28 PTS OR 0.44%    /The Nikkei closed UP 57.29 OR 0.21%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.15%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9909//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9999//    /Oil UP TO 87,08  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.93    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/TYPHOON

China issues the highest typhoon warning heading straight for Shanghai

(zerohedge)

China Issues Highest Typhoon Warning As Storm Approaches World’s Largest Container Ports

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 06:00 PM

China issued the highest tropical cyclone warning on Wednesday as Typhoon Muifa barreled toward Shanghai as Asia’s largest ports are at a standstill. 

Chinese state media said Muifa is expected to make landfall between the cities of Wenling and Zhoushan on Wednesday, dumping torrential rains, unleashing high winds, and battering coastlines with massive waves. The areas of impact include critical commercial zones to global supply chains. 

Source: Bloomberg 

Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan Ports are in the direct path of the storm. The twin port cities are some of the largest in Asia and the world in cargo handling and are at a standstill as waves up to 5 meters (16 feet) are expected Wednesday. 

US Joint Typhoon Warning Center said wind gusts over 100 mph are expected for the next 12 hours as it approaches Shanghai. 

China issued the highest-level typhoon warning on Wednesday for the first time this year, according to state media. 

Besides shipping disruptions, all flights in the region have been canceled for Wednesday, flight data platform Variflight told Reuters. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam said the storm could inflict almost a billion dollars in damage to coastal areas in eastern China. 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

EU/NATURAL GAS

EU NatGas Prices Jump As Plan To “Fix” Energy Crisis Underwhelms

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 01:10 PM

European nat gas prices jumped this week as the market’s initial euphoria and apparent confidence that Europe’s “emergency fix” to contain the energy crisis is big on jawboning and weak on… well… actually “fixing” the crisis.

EU benchmark futures have been on a tear after bottoming around 182 euros a megawatt-hour. Since Tuesday, prices have jumped 32% to 242 euros as traders aren’t convinced last Friday’s meeting among 27 EU energy ministers is enough to starve off a crisis in the months ahead. However, prices faded in the late Thursday session. 

We reported on Tuesday, right around the time EU NatGas bottomed, that the only thing the energy ministers “agreed on was implementing a ceiling on the revenues of power utilities that do not use NatGas to generate power.”

OilPrice’s Irina Slav pointed out there was more disagreement than agreements among the energy ministers. She explained: 

“What they did not agree on was everything else the Commission suggested last week, including a price cap on Russian gas, a cap on final energy prices, and a direct intervention in EU electricity markets. It’s hard to get 27 countries to agree on so many things without any compromise. This is why the EU’s survival plans for the winter may never work as intended.”

The EU’s 140 billion euros plan also includes bailouts for energy companies and provides payment assistance to households and businesses — but does very little on how to address immediate new sources of NatGas in an environment that is tighter than ever as Nord Stream 1’s supplies from Russia to Europe have fallen to zero. 

“The fact that they’ve gone quiet on the gas price cap is taking some risk out of the market,” said James Huckstepp, head of EMEA gas analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “And the plans to subsidize end-users is bringing demand destruction assumptions into question.”

Less than a week after the meeting, the German government warned Thursday that the threat of energy rationing in Europe is still increasing, and there will likely be NatGas shortages. 

“I expect waves: there are gas shortages, they go, they come back, they appear here, sometimes there, possibly throughout Germany,” Klaus Mueller, president of the country’s energy regulator, said. “If we get a very cold winter, we have a problem.”

Bloomberg pointed out that all eyes will be on the EU’s NatGas storage levels. The good news: storage is about 84%, above a five-year average, and Germany is at 89%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. 

Weather will be a significant factor as Central Europe’s average temperatures have been sliding since September, indicating cooler temperatures could increase heating demand by the end of the month.

“Europe will start seeing some heating demand picking up now,” said Niek van Kouteren, a senior trader at Dutch energy company PZEM NV. “If we do see a prolonged colder period though, that will really start impacting prices, and you might already have to start withdrawing some storages.”

Without drastically increasing new NatGas sources, EU leaders will have to continue enforcing mandatory electricity curbs on peak power demand periods. 

EU NatGas storage levels and weather conditions will be closely watched. A major problem will materialize if the continent has a freezing and prolonged winter. 

Europeans probably wish they had more global warming to avert an energy crisis.

UK

Bill Blain.. on the upcoming UK economic crisis

(bill blain)

Blain: UK Grieves As Economic Crises Loom

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 08:12 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Give ‘em the old razzle dazzle, give them an act with lots of flash in it..”

As London grieves we’re not paying much attention to politics and markets – but we should. The outlook is deteriorating. Confidence is declining and will likely get worse if the new government’s lack of awareness and sensitivity continues.

London this week has been extraordinary. It will become more so as literally millions of us are prepared to queue to pay our respects in whatever the weather throws at us. The great affection in which the Queen was held, and our hopes for King Charles, have come to the fore – giving the whole nation a sense of quiet dignity that has been lacking over the turbulent years of Cameron’s confabulations, May’s mayhem and Boris’ buffoonery. We Brits do pageantry rather well – politics? Not so much.

Unfortunately, dignity and waving flags do not pay the bills. Gentile national poverty could be around the next corner. Disneyland may yet get the chance to make a distressed bid for Ye Olde England Theme-park… Boris may be gone, but Government is still flolloping around like a mattress in a swamp… with all the massive implications for the economy that entails.

It’s all about confidence and communication.

When markets lose confidence in a nation – bad things happen, and can happen fast. The “Virtuous Sovereign Trinity” model describes how a nation with a well-run political economy (effective politics and a functional economy), a stable currency, and a strong and efficient bond market, will likely succeed in multiple ways such as attracting inwards investment, fostering strong labour/management outcomes to drive productivity and wealth creation, and avoiding inflation.

Get it wrong and the consequences explode, meaning it can all go to rack-sh*t in a heartbeat.

  • The collapse in sterling is not just a function of dollar strength, but genuine concern on where the UK is going post Brexit, Boris, Covid, Ukraine and now, Truss. A weakening sterling fuels inflation – which is why the UK is now expected to underperform Europe.
  • Doubts on the political economy are highlighted by raising industrial tension as workers demand pay rises to combat the cost of living crisis, and years of rising income inequality where wages barely increased but house prices rocketed. The UK is ill-prepared for the consequences of higher interest rates on consumer-debt, the housing market (the traditional gold standard of how the economy is faring) and commerce.
  • The recent rise in Gilt yields (the UK govt bond market) raises doubts on just what the UK will have to pay to finance itself.

Just over a week ago I wrote “Liz Truss has a week to avert a confidence crisis in the UK”. She has been given extra time by the Royal succession – but we are still asking: what is the programme? Bearing in mind she was predicted to win the Tory leadership back in June, and given all that time to prepare… what grand, carefully considered plan to restore the UK has she brought with her to Downing Street?

Er….

Truss, and her partner in the top spot, new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, still sit uneasy around her new Downing Street throne. She does not have a solid majority of MPs, or even the party. Lest we forget… she is the fourth Tory Prime Minister since 2010 – the rest having been dumped. Truss is not a great communicator – which is one reason tensions are rising.

Give Truss and Kwarteng credit for the broad-brush policies announced so far: the Energy Cap Bailout last week –a promise to support the economy from the effects of the Ukraine energy shock. Businesses will be offered “equivalent support” for 6 months and ongoing support for vulnerable industries – which will, apparently include pubs. A new round on oil and gas licences will be announced, and the production of UK shale gas. We will get a new Nuclear power outline that will generate 24 GW by 2050.

But all the above are just words.

We will get details on how it’s going to work after parliament reopens in October, including how energy bills at an average price of £2,500 will be frozen. The papers are leaking it may be November before businesses start to see money come in to cover their huge cost increases. We have no idea what the Treasury analysts believe the likely sums required to support industry and consumers will be.

There is also the problem the new Energy Cap bailout looks and is blindingly regressive– freezing energy bills at an average price of £2,500 won’t stop the poorest 6 million households in the UK remaining in fuel poverty after prices rose earlier this year. It will give a sop to Tory-voting middle classes who will be inconvenienced but can afford it. As the Tory’s have said before: no point fertilising fields that won’t vote for us. (As said about Liverpool – 1982.)

There were other less regressive and less expensive ways to address the crisis – windfall taxes, progressive energy subsidies forcing the rich to pay more and consume less, and schemes to limit energy to each household, meaning the rich pay more to consumer more. All have flaws and raise problematical consequences, but each is probably better than the simple.. “Don’t worry, we can fund it all through borrowing to buy the next election..”

The Tories are not daft. They know they’ve been in power for 12 years, meaning it’s too long ago to blame the last Labour Government for the present crisis in the economy. They have a narrative to build before the next election – which is due sometime before Dec 2024. That narrative is overlaid with talk about growth, growth, growth, a refocusing on cutting red-tape and inefficient government spending, and “making Brexit work”. (I hear we are about to announce a massive new trade deal with Tonga.) There is also a clear message to convey – cover up the failings of 12 years of Conservative dither by stressing the mantra: “A Labour government will be a disaster for the economy and markets”

Historically, not true. Strip out the last 12 years, and the record shows Labour and Conservative governments are pretty evenly matched when it comes to mismanaging the economy. They have both presided over booms and busts. But to be fair, the last 12 years have seen the longest period of anaemic growth – despite low interest rates, the lowest productivity gains, slowest internal investment, fastest widening of the inequality gap and income inequality, a widening in health outcomes between the poor and rich, and more families on low wages than since the industrial revolution. Hey, at least we got Brexit done!

I am quite sure Truss and Kwarteng understand what a poisoned chalice they have been given, but I would ask – who is advising them?

As I’ve said above – confidence in the Gilt market is absolutely critical for the nation. If the gilt market melts down, and rates rise (because the price is the price is the price), then the Virtuous Sovereign Trinity will tumble. The massive fiscal spending programme Truss and Kwarteng envisage (to enable them to cut taxes) has profound consequences.

But, there has been, as yet, no guidance on how the UK’s Debt Management Office (DMO) should factor in the sudden massively increased funding requirement into its carefully planned Gilt issuance strategy. The DMO is one of the UK’s greatest financial secret assets – running a very effective UK’s government Gilt issuance market. As I’ve written above – a properly functioning Government Bond market is a prerequisite to a strong economy.

Truss and Kwarteng could ask their civil servants in the Treasury office – but they won’t.  Its increasingly clear Truss understands what she wants to understand. Chancellor Kwarteng, has been described as “a man so fond of his own voice that his ears have been given a redundancy notice.”

Which means we should not be surprised the first act of the new Government when it took power on Tuesday last week was to sack the most senior civil servant at the Treasury, Sir Tom Scholar .. pour le encourage les autres, apparently. Kwarteng has lectured them about growth as their only priority.

There is nothing more British than a very angry letter to the Editor of The Times;

 “The sad fact is that in sacking Sir Tom Scholar, one of the ablest civil servants of his generation, the prime minister and chancellor have sent a clear message to the civil service that they are not interested in impartial advice and intend to surround themselves with “yes” men and women. That is a sure route to bad decision-making and weak government. It is also another small step on the road to politicising the civil service. It is disappointing that the cabinet secretary, whom the prime minister apparently now intends to retain has acquiesced in the sacking and once again failed to stand up for the values of the civil service.”

Sir David Normington, Home Office permanent secretary 2006-10; first civil service commissioner 2011-16

The UK faces a fundamental crisis in terms of its Virtual Sovereign Trinity – a potential collapse in the bond market, further weakening in sterling, and a failure by government to address the multiple crises facing the nation can only make things much, much worse. So how have the Tories approached it? By sacking one of lynchpins who understands how the system works, and alienating the staff.

Demonstrating just how deaf he is, Kwarteng’s second act as chancellor is proposing to scrap the Banker Bonus Cap imposed by the EU following the last Global Financial Crisis. He argues it will make London a more attractive place to base financial businesses. Goldman Sachs is applauding the move – the local food bank, less so. The man is politically deaf – but he wasn’t listening anyway.

Clever.. Not.

END

END

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/THE WEST

The changing world seen by few and denied by many

Robert Hryniak11:04 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

The world of globalization died the day the ship of fools decided to deny Russia the use of Swift for transfer of payments and receipts in USD. This clearly demonstrated use of currency as a hegemony weapon against a opponent. This was not lost on China and a host of other countries who have been long serving vassals where currency has been used to control trade and wealth transfers. Many nations in their desire to be uplift their economies had no choice but to use USD and in turn borrowed in the only currency globally accepted as a debt currency of choice by banks. This placed countries and companies into a form of captivity as dollar availability and rate of cost was control by the FED causing great stress when rates of interest rose and easy credit when rates declined. You might say the dollar became an addiction well used for decades. When Russia was thrown off Swift the unthinkable became reality and has forced a structural shift. As the saying goes, carry a big stick and speak softly. However when you use the stick you also have no other stick to use. So in a non military sense America’s biggest weapon was used, and for now has failed to produce servitude and collapse of the Russian State. And has served to unite many countries behind Russia and forged an even stronger bond of mutual benefit between China and Russia. Many nations now rush to side with what they see as an alternative to the American century of hegemony. After all historically such feelings are normal under any empire rule. 

This movement is using Russia as the military shield while other nations position as they have accepted correctly or not that only Russia can stand up to the Collective West and win. Countries like India and China both need Russia’s technology as a shield while they develop further independence both from a military and economic stance. And why they support Russia to have freedom of choice for their national development leading to future hegemony growth. Otherwise they will be vassal states for the next century. So one can expect all manner of dirty tricks from assassination attempts on Putin and others in Russia as well as in China. 

Nor did the DC crowd understand the true implications of what was done and even today are simply ignorant of real seismic shifts occurring and future implications as the usual party continues to fleece wherever possible failing to see what others see. It is why trust is long gone. It will only change if previous wrongs are righted as actions speak where words are no longer heard. And this will happen out of necessity to survive and with reluctance. 

Trump in many ways was against all odds and internal political infighting a breather for a time out for America to rethink itself and act accordingly to realities and not delusions. In many ways he could only buy time with a political class too blind to recognize the need to change or alter the thievery that was rampant. After the humiliating debacle in Afghanistan in August 2021, when the Americans were kicked out and NATO was routed, the Asian century arrived. The complete failure to exist with grace of a true Leading Nation was evident in the withdrawal and total disregard for equipment and people left behind. This was done in full global view for people to see. And no amount of denial or narrative can change what has been done. 

Recently, senior representatives from sixty-eight countries gathered at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok on Russia’s Pacific coast, a centre of the new multipolar world. They were there to listen to Moscow’s economic and political vision for the Asia-Pacific after the fall of the obsolete unipolar Western Empire. President Putin declared: “The new world order is based on the fundamental principles of justice and equality, as well as the recognition of the right of each state and people to their own sovereign path of development. Powerful political and economic centres are being formed right here in the Asia-Pacific region, acting as a driving force in this irreversible process”. While this rattles the Western hegemony controllers it is music to the ears of attendees. 

The Russian future is marked by the development of the Russian Arctic and of the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic. On the Northern Sea Route the emphasis is on building a powerful, modern fleet of icebreakers, some nuclear-powered. There is a long-term plan up to 2035 to create infrastructure for safe shipping navigation and a transformation in Arctic navigation and shipbuilding that has been under way for the last few years. A second development for Russia is the International North-South Transportation Corridor with one of its main ports in Chabahar in Iran. Now for the first time India will be directly connected to Central Asia. An Iranian shipping line with 300 vessels which link to Mumbai is taking part in the development of this Transportation Corridor. The creation of such a transport corridor is also leading to the integration of national transit systems in several countries. This is not a new event as this was planned years ago and has real form and is without Western banking or capital. Hence no western control or influence. 

This week the Samarkand Summit of the multipolar Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) is taing place. Apart from the current full members – Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and now Iran – no fewer than eleven more countries wish to join, including Afghanistan and Turkey, making potentially twenty in all. The SCO Summit is to examine economic cooperation with the aim of solving health, energy, food security and poverty reduction issues. India too wants an Asian century, for which close cooperation between India, China and Russia is necessary. For now India is not competitive and needs to diversify to obtain improved access to Eurasia, thanks to logistical help from Russia. Russia will also play a vital role in the Indian Ocean with the need for close co-operation between ‘The Big Three’, Russia, India and China. So you see India is very much in the Russian camp wishing success and why India is more than willing to buy Russian oil and gas. In fact, India is taking up the actual reduction of supply that is no longer going to the West. Both India and China will act in concert to ensure a steady basis of supply for Russia because they need Russia to succeed. And one must appreciate that in reality such deals exclude the likes of Glencore etc. allowing Russia price flexibility since no margin goes to such commodity players and cuts out Western banks. 

Remember that Asia alone has over 25% of the world’s GDP and 50% of the world’s population. Asia is no longer a series of countries subject to colonisation by Europe and the USA, but the agent for planetary change. The Asian century is here. There is also a global movement to join the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan and Argentina. It all means that the Global Majority is no longer the US/CA/UK/EU/AUS/NZ and a few US colonies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. It is Afro-Eurasia-Latin America, 87.5% of the world. Equally important is that all trade in it will be in bilateral currencies, not in USD. The centre has passed from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the Atlantic is becoming a backwater. This is a New Age. And this is what the Ukraine conflict is really all about as to weaken Russia; break Russia up before this new reality goes too far to stop. And if Putin can be removed by a bullet or overthrow then all will be done to achieve this to stop this movement. And this is not new as it has been done often in the past. 

The Eastern Economic Forum showed how most Asian nations are either neutral or warm towards the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) in the Ukraine. They know that the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian State had been seeking peace and protection for those folks who prefer to speak Russian and culture in the Ukraine for eight years. The Operation was imposed by the incredible belligerence and arrogance of the West. Remember Nuland’s infamous words “fuck the EU” speaking to the American ambassador of the Ukraine.  Recently the British, US-backed and mercenary-led Kiev Armed Forces launched a counter-offensive to the south and east of the Ukraine towards Kherson and took many casualties for minor success. Kiev has been trying to compensate for that counter-offensive, where they lost two motorised brigades and over 300 tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery, with strikes to the north-west of Kharkov. But here too Kiev has been suffering such heavy losses that they have had to send reserves. The militia of the Donbas and Russians have trapped the Ukrainian Army and its mercenaries in the open. Do not believe the absurd propaganda that Russia is losing. This has a long way to going and tactical defeats are not strategic wins. In the past, we have seen too many reports of horrendous losses by Ukrainians not to conclude they have already lost. And no matter the number the number of NATO troops sent, their blood will serve to enrich the soil. Reality suggests Ukrainian losses are 10 fold to that of aligned Russian forces and most of that is Ukrainians from the Donbas and not Russians. 

The pain dial has been turned up in this conflict as we have seen recently. This will continue as there is no choice as Putin has been holding back hoping that a compromise was possible. And while that was never the case, NATO involvement and Kremlin pressure combines to raise the pain threshold. If Putin is killed or overthrown, expect Kiev to disappear in a nuclear strike within a short time to send a clear message of what is to come if NATO does not back off. What is cast is cast and Russia will not back down or accept defeat as either means a loss of hegemony and a collapse of this alternate structure taking place. Too many parties are becoming fully vested as will soon be publicly seen for there to be return to yesterday’s world order. 

The clock is running out for the Collective West as a United World Power block and this goes for Western banking. . It morphed from good intentions to being controlled by a parasitical elite with a pubic zombified, hoodwinked and betrayed by that elite’s lying propaganda. One only has to look to the recent Covid Scam that has created billions in profits for a few, while the public has been locked down and jabbed with who knows what, causing many people to suffer needless grief or death. There was no mass public benefit, only pain, debt and angst and global supply chain disruptions that will be with us for a long time. 

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//

This is huge!! The important medical journal the Lancet has now come out and suggested that the COOVID 19 could have orignated in USA labs

(the Lancet)

The Lancet Opens Pandora’s Box, Suggests COVID Could Have Originated In US Labs

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 04:40 PM

After providing a platform for a massive ‘Natural Origins’ Covid-19 disinformation campaign by EcoHealth Alliance head Peter Daszak, The Lancet appears to have done a 180 – suggesting Covid-19 may have originated “in US laboratories engaged in the laboratory manipulation of SARS-CoV-like viruses,” among other possibilities.

“No independent, transparent, and science-based investigation has been carried out regarding the bioengineering of SARS-like viruses that was underway before the outbreak of COVID-19,” writes The Lancet‘s Covid-19 commission, following two years of work.

Independent researchers have not yet investigated the US laboratories engaged in the laboratory manipulation of SARS-CoV-like viruses, nor have they investigated the details of the laboratory research that had been underway in Wuhan. Moreover, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has resisted disclosing details of the research on SARS-CoV-related viruses that it had been supporting, providing extensively redacted information only as required by Freedom of Information Act lawsuits.”

Regular readers will recall that four months before the Obama administration outlawed ‘gain-of-function’ research on US soil, EcoHealth landed a lucrative NIH contract to offshore the risky research to Wuhan, China – where he was tasked with manipulating bat COVID to be more transmissible to humans.

Daszak notably also wanted to create ‘chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily,’ but his $14 million request to DARPA was declined for being too risky.

Angus Dalgleish, Professor of Oncology at St Georges, University of London, who struggled to get work published showing that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had been carrying out “gain of function” work for years before the pandemic, said the research may have gone ahead even without the funding.

This is clearly a gain of function, engineering the cleavage site and polishing the new viruses to enhance human cell infectibility in more than one cell line,” he said. –Telegraph

And after Sars-CoV-2 broke out in the same town where Daszak was manipulating Bat Covid, The Lancet published a screed by Daszak (signed by over two-dozen scientists), which insisted Covid could have only come from a natural spillover event, likely from a wet market, and that the scientists “stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.” The Lancet only later noted Daszak’s conflicts of interest.

Now, The Lancet‘s Covid-19 Commission has kicked the door open to several new theories, including that Covid-19 could have been engineered in, or escaped from, US laboratories – and that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has “resisted disclosing the details of its work.

The full section in question:

As of the time of publication of this report, all three research-associated hypotheses are still plausible: infection in the field, infection with a natural virus in the laboratory, and infection with a manipulated virus in the laboratory. No independent, transparent, and science-based investigation has been carried out regarding the bioengineering of SARS-like viruses that was underway before the outbreak of COVID-19. The laboratory notebooks, databases, email records, and samples of institutions involved in such research have not been made available to independent researchers. Independent researchers have not yet investigated the US laboratories engaged in the laboratory manipulation of SARS-CoV-like viruses, nor have they investigated the details of the laboratory research that had been underway in Wuhan. Moreover, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has resisted disclosing details of the research on SARS-CoV-related viruses that it had been supporting, providing extensively redacted information only as required by Freedom of Information Act lawsuits.

In brief, there are many potential proximal origins of SARS-CoV-2, but there is still a shortfall of independent, scientific, and collaborative work on the issue. –The Lancet

As The Telegraph notes, the Lancet report comes as controversy swirls the Covid-19 Commission chair, economist Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, who said at a conference in Madrid earlier this year that he was “pretty convinced” Covid-19 “came out of a US lab of biotechnology, not out of nature,” a claim promoted by Chinese diplomats.

Sachs also appeared on an August podcast hosted by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – who has been criticized over his prominent anti-vaccine stance.

“Sachs’ appearance on RFK Jr’s podcast… undermines the seriousness of the Lancet Commission’s mission to the point of completely negating it,” said Prof Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization in Canada. “This may be one of the Lancet’s most shameful moments regarding its role as a steward and leader in communicating crucial findings about science and medicine,” she added.

Sachs stood by his previous comments, telling The Telegraph that he personally “oversaw this part of the work” on the emergency of Sars-Cov-2, after disbanding an initial task force headed by Daszak which was never re-formed.

“Everybody has signed off on the final text. The question of a possible laboratory release mostly involves the question of US-China joint work that was underway on Sars-like viruses,” he said.

The Lancet Commission‘s report also criticized the World Health Organization over its slow reaction in the early days of the pandemic, suggesting it “repeatedly erred on the side of reserve rather than boldness,” including a delay in calling a public health emergency, as well as a “hesitancy” to report that Covid spread via airborne transmission.

The UN health agency also “fell victim to the increasing tensions between the United States and China”, the commissioners warned, adding that better international collaboration will be key to prevent epidemics becoming pandemics in future. 

The WHO said it welcomed “the overarching recommendations”, but said there were “several key omissions and misinterpretations” around the agency’s initial response. 

The researchers analysed the varying approaches to the disease around the world, too. The Western Pacific “stands out for its very low average mortality rate,” possibly as the region’s experience of the Sars epidemic in 2003 had left it better prepared to tackle new pathogens. -The Telegraph

According to a Lancet spokesperson, the journal “regularly evaluated the work of each Task Force as scientific evidence about Covid-19 evolved, to ensure that the final peer-reviewed report will provide valuable new insights to support a coordinated, global response to Covid-19 as well as to prevent future pandemics and contain future disease outbreaks.”

CANADA

Quite a story:  Canadian National Railway executives new that their vaccine mandate was harming their workers.  They knew of severe reactions to the vaccine and have tapes to prove it.

Noe Cartier/Epoch Times

‘Insane’ That CN Imposed Mandate Knowing of ‘Severe Reactions’ to Vaccine, Says Lawsuit Organizer

By Noé Chartier

September 12, 2022Updated: September 14, 2022

biggersmaller

Print

People who are affected by Canadian National Railway’s vaccine mandate and are suing the company have started speaking out and releasing internal documents, one of which is a recording showing CN knew some of its employees were experiencing debilitating reactions to COVID-19 vaccination before it implemented the mandate.

Christian Jones, a key lawsuit organizer against CN, commented on the recording and said it was “insane” to think imposing the mandate was proper given what management knew.

Jones was a real estate manager for CN before being put on unpaid leave and then dismissed for refusing to disclose his vaccination status.

He says the company should have pushed back against the mandate imposed by Transport Canada in fall 2021.

The recently obtained recording relates to a virtual meeting that took place three days before Nov. 15, 2021, when CN’s vaccine mandate kicked in.

Various executives, managers, and human resources personnel discussed the policy and how to manage potential issues like unvaccinated employees attending their workplaces against the directive and making a scene, or vaccinated employees still catching COVID.

One meeting participant asked if an employee who falls ill after the second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine would get paid leave.

“That will continue to be managed like any other day-off under their agreement,” replied Yaritza Kon, director of human resources.

Rahim Karmali, chief engineer for supply chain and technology, was moderating the meeting and commented on Kon’s response based on his experience.

“I’ve had employees get severe reactions after the shot,” said Karmali, who reports to a vice president, explaining that these issues can be managed through the safety representative.

“But it’s not ‘Hey, I feel a little bit feverish.’ It’s ‘Hey, I’ve got something to the point where my body is unable to function. I’ve got muscle contractions’ and things like that. There’s documented symptoms that we will support for those types of issues when they do arise.”

Jones said he’s concerned by these comments based on the number of employees Karmali manages.

“That’s a huge percentage when compared to the 99.9 percent survivability rate associated with COVID-19 or even its severe cases,” he said.

Jones then noted the language used by Karmali where he said “when they do arise” instead of “if.”

“This is a guarantee from management that a large percentage of people who take these shots will have a severe event.”

“Simply, it’s insane to think this is a reasonable policy,” Jones said.

The Epoch Times attempted to reach Karmali but didn’t hear back. His identity was confirmed through a former CN employee and online profiles.

CN was also contacted to comment on the recording and to indicate if it kept statistics on adverse events caused by vaccination. The company was also asked how many employees were fired or quit because of the mandate. CN spokesperson Jonathan Abecassis declined to comment.

Staffing Issues

There is evidence the vaccine mandate had a negative impact on staffing at major railway companies.

A June secret briefing given to the Liberal cabinet before it made the decision to suspend the mandates said it was the most important factor impacting human resources.

“Class 1 railways are running with lower employment levels than a year ago: citing vaccination mandate as key impediment to staffing for critical operating positions like engineers and conductors, and maintenance—both in terms of keeping former employees on sidelines and making it difficult to recruit,” says the briefing.

According to Blacklock’s Reporter citing labour board records, Canadian Pacific (CP) didn’t impose too strict of a mandate to keep its trains running. CP said full compliance would “place critical operations of the railroad at risk.”

Some managers on the CN videoconference call expressed concerns about what the impact of the mandate would be on staffing.

One unidentified speaker said it was impossible to predict how many employees would not show up on Nov. 15.

“None of us really understand what the full impact of this will be,” he said. “We’ll make sure your track is protected properly, I can tell you that.”

The CN mandate fell after Ottawa suspended the mandates for domestic travel and federally regulated workplaces on June 20.

CN’s report on second-quarter results released in late July addresses the mandate, noting it led to the vaccination of “substantially all active CN employees.”

Lawsuit

What the report doesn’t say is that hundreds of CN employees were put on unpaid leave, were fired, or quit due to the mandate.

About 200 of them have launched a lawsuit against the company and more employees have started a second lawsuit. CP is also being sued.

The CN plaintiffs are each seeking $500,000 in damages for charter rights violations and another $500,000 for punitive and exemplary damages.

They claim loss of income, loss of sleep, emotional trauma, and loss of opportunity for future income, among other things.

Their statement of claim says the plaintiffs oppose attesting to their vaccination status and accepting vaccination absent informed consent.

Internal emails obtained by The Epoch Times show Jones challenged CN’s mandate policy and asked that it be revoked.

“The alternative starts with a very expensive formal letter from my growing team and I,” wrote Jones on Oct. 13, 2021.

“‘I’m going to bring an army after you,’” Jones says he told his management. “Obviously they didn’t believe me.”

The parties held a case management conference on Sept. 7 and the judge set April 2023 as the date of hearings to consider CN’s and CP’s motions to strike the lawsuits.

Transport Canada and the attorney general have pulled their own motion to strike.

“The issue of whether the Federal Court has jurisdiction over Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Railway will be determined before Canada brings any motion to strike,” Transport Canada spokesperson Hicham Ayoun said in an email statement.

end

Another case:  significant proof that the USA air force discriminated against troops seeking religious exemptions.  

a must read

(Zachary Stieber/EpochTimes)

‘Significant Proof’ Air Force Discriminated Against Troops Seeking Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate: Court

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Air Force members seeking religious exemptions from the U.S. military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate have provided “significant proof” that the military branch has discriminated against them, a federal appeals court ruled on Sept. 12.

A U.S. district court in July blocked the mandate for thousands of Air Force members who remain unvaccinated and have had their religious exemptions denied or not acted upon. In response, the government asked for an emergency stay. When that was denied, the government went to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, arguing that the ruling was wrong.

An appeals court panel said in its decision released Monday that plaintiffs had to provide significant proof that the Air Force had a policy to deny all requests for religious exemptions, and all indications are that they have.

“To establish a general policy … the plaintiffs need not show that the Department rejects 100% of requests for religious exemptions. And the Department’s own statistics show that, as of May 23, 2022, it had rejected more than 99% of them,” U.S. Circuit Judge Raymond Kethledge, a George W. Bush appointee, wrote in the 11-page order.

That the Department has granted only a comparative handful of religious exemptions, while granting thousands of medical and administrative ones, is itself at this stage of the case significant proof of discrimination,” he added.

Kethledge was joined by Circuit Judges Eric Murphy and John K. Bush, both Trump appointees.

Plaintiffs

The plaintiffs are all members who sought religious exemptions and were deemed by chaplains to hold sincere religious beliefs, but the military rejected many of their requests anyways. The others haven’t received final decisions but expect to be rejected, based on the treatment of like-minded airmen.

The group has said that evidence shows the military systemically denied requests for religious exemptions, denying federal law and the U.S. Constitution.

This order by the Court of Appeals affirms that the Department of Defense and the Air Force violated religious free exercise rights of service members which is protected under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the First Amendment,” Mat Staver, founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, which is representing the plaintiffs, said in a statement.

“This is a great victory for religious freedom, especially for these Air Force service members who love God and love America. These mandates will continue to crumble one by one in the courts,” he added.

Read more here…

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Denmark advises people under 50 to not get COVID 19 boosters

(Philips/EpochTimes)

Denmark Government Advises People Under 50 Not to Get COVID-19 Boosters

By Jack Phillips

September 14, 2022Updated: September 14, 2022

Denmark will not offer those under the age of 50 more COVID-19 vaccine boosters, the Danish Health Authority announced this week.

“The purpose of vaccination is not to prevent infection with COVID-19, and people aged under 50 are therefore currently not being offered booster vaccination,” the agency wrote in a Sept. 13 statement.

The Scandinavian country also explicitly dropped any pretense to halt the spread of COVID-19 and announced it will focus on protecting vulnerable individuals, including people with compromised immune systems and the elderly. Those people, it said, are the most at risk of developing severe COVID-19 cases.

Instead, the agency has an “aim to prevent serious illness, hospitalization, and death,” the statement said.

The Health Authority noted that people under the age of 50 “are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill” from the virus.

Younger people “are well protected against becoming severely ill” and a “very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected” with COVID-19, it said.

“There is consequently good immunity among this part of the population,” the agency said. “It is important that the population also remembers the guidance on how to prevent the spread of infection, including staying at home in case of illness, frequent aeration or ventilation, social distancing, good coughing etiquette, hand hygiene, and cleaning.”

Denmark was one of the first countries in the world to stop giving COVID-19 vaccines to healthy children. The UK has recently followed suit and ended giving COVID-19 vaccines to most children aged 11 and under.

Children and young people who are at risk of developing COVID-19 cases can still receive the vaccine in Denmark if recommended by a doctor, the health agency said last month.

“The Danish Health Authority does not currently plan on recommending vaccination to persons under the age of 18 as a group,” Lotte Baelum, a spokesperson for the Health Authority, told The Associated Press. “Children and young people who are at increased risk of a serious course of COVID-19 will continue to have the option of vaccination after individual assessment.”

The UK Health Security Agency said in September that children who hadn’t turned 5 by the end of August wouldn’t be offered COVID-19 vaccines, noting that the COVID-19 vaccine offer for kids aged 5 to 11 was a temporary directive.

In the United States, about two months after federal health officials authorized COVID-19 vaccine doses for young children and infants, only a very small percentage of children have received the first dose, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

———- Forwarded message ———
From: Epoch News Alert<newsletter@theepochtimes.com>

end

USA navy quietly cancels vaccine requirement order for Navy seals

(zerohedge)

US Navy Quietly Cancels Vaccine Requirement Order For SEALs

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 07:20 PM

The US Navy quietly rolled back Trident Order #12, an order denying religious exemptions for covid vaccinations, a few months after an injunction was issued by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in early 2022 as part of an ongoing lawsuit brought by First Liberty Institute.  The suit was initiated on behalf of 35 active-duty SEALS and three reservists seeking exemptions to the mandate due to the possibility of covid vaccines being developed using cells and tissues from aborted fetuses. 

This information has only become publicly available after a new filing in the case this week.  Trident Order #12 made any non-compliant SEALS and other troops impossible to deploy and designated them as medically disqualified.  This development runs in tandem with a growing trend among government institutions; they back away from their original draconian mandates but in a manner that reduces media exposure and avoids any admission that the mandates are unconstitutional.

A communication order was circulated by the Navy on May 23 with the subject: “NSWC CLOSEOUT TO TRIDENT ORDER #12 – MANDATORY VACCINATION FOR COVID-19.” NSWC refers to the Naval Special Warfare Command:

“This order rescinds reference A,” it states, referring to “Ref A” as “Trident Order #12 on COVID-19 Vaccinations.”

The May 23 communication order also said Navy commands “will continue to follow guidance, as appropriate, regarding COVID-19 vaccination, accommodation requests, and mitigation measures.”

The Navy along with every other branch of the US military is facing a severe recruitment crisis, with a record low number of Americans eligible to serve.  In particular, far too many potential recruits are unable to meet the physical requirements to complete basic training.  This has led to discussions on lowering standards, but even this would not solve low recruitment numbers for special operations and SEALS, which require highly capable candidates regardless.

An implosion in recruitment may have partially contributed to the Navy’s abandonment of vax restrictions, along with the flood of scientific evidence showing that the vaccines make very little difference in immunity and mortality, especially for young and fit individuals, when compared to natural immunity.  Numerous studies show superior immunity among unvaxxed people that have already had covid.

The US government continues to refuse to acknowledge natural immunity as an acceptable status for the military or federal employees, though their attempts to enforce proof of vaccination (vaccine passports) have all but failed anyway.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

END

Paul Alexander..

Open in browserDow Jones near 1,300-point drop, stocks record worst day; 1.3 trillion $ drop; SINGLE moms are decimated; US Army point soldiers to food stamps; inflation food price highest since 1979

Inflation now 8.3% and if we modelled similar to 1980s, inflation would be 16-17%; Biden really is so clued out and his administration knows because he does not understand what he says, ‘he can say it

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 14 
  LISTEN SAVE 
Single mothers are hardest hit by the inflation and rising costs even while holding down a job. Devastating single mothers. They cannot make ends meet and Biden is in la la land. I am convinced listening him today he has no idea where he is or what he is saying. They dress him up, put on the aviators and roll him out. Had he understood the reality in the nation, and what he is saying, he would not say it. He can say the stuff he says because he is unaware of what he is saying. He has the type of mental deficit where every word must be written on a prompter for him to read. He cannot initiate sentences on his own. It must be written.
SOURCE:
Dow books near 1,300-point drop as stocks record worst day
The U.S. Army has released guidance for soldiers as they fight inflation, including a suggestion that they take advantage of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps.
SOURCE
Inflation has infected every part of society. As a result, the prices for everything have skyrocketed. Not one person nor a single business is immune to inflation’s permeating effects. Even in a strong labor market where some companies, like Costco, have raised wages to attract new workers, Inflation’s choking grip serves to nullify any benefits that would come from higher pay. In some way or another everyone is suffering. However, there are some feeling inflations effects much stronger than others. Single moms have been among the hardest hit. SOURCE
BLS: Inflation in Price of Food Highest Since 1979SOURCE

VACCINE IMPACT/

VACCINE INJURY/

John Cody/Remix news

Mysterious Increase In Deaths Seen Across Europe

teaser image

“Neither Covid nor heat waves explain what’s happening here…”

END

/VACCINE IMPACT

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Europe’s “State Of The Union”: A War Economy, Without The Guns To Support It

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 09:51 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Ursula von der Leyen gave a muscular State of the Union address yesterday. There was no shirking from the outset: “Never before has this Parliament debated the State of our Union with war raging on European soil….From that very moment, Europeans neither hid nor hesitated. They found the courage to do the right thing.” Some of the right things, as critics even within the EU might point out, and much slower and on a much smaller scale than the US, for example.

There was a clear warning: “The months ahead of us will not be easy. Be it for families who are struggling to make ends meet, or businesses, who are facing tough choices about their future.” Europe was about to be tested, she said, and much was at stake, for it and the world at large. But that was about all she said about the tough choices or struggling from then on.

VDL opted for geopolitics over economics: “This is not only a war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values and a war on our future. This is about autocracy against democracy.” That sounds very much like the economic war and systemic metacrisis warned of here all year, and which touches just about everything.

She stressed that Russia’s financial sector is on life-support and “Nearly one thousand international companies have left the country. The production of cars fell by three-quarters compared to last year. Aeroflot is grounding planes because there are no more spare parts. The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors. Russia’s industry is in tatters.” It isn’t the only one facing that fate, sadly: regardless, “I want to make it very clear, the sanctions are here to stay.”

EUR100m was offered to Ukrainian schools: a down-payment on the estimated EUR300-400bn it might take to rebuild the country. Then VDL pointed out the EU has connected Ukraine to its electricity grid: “And today, Ukraine is exporting electricity to us. I want to significantly expand this mutually beneficial trade.” I am sure Europe would love more electricity from Ukraine, though it is odd that a shattered country should have to do that kind of lifting.

She stayed geopolitical, via energy: “We should have listened to the voices inside our Union – in Poland, in the Baltics, and all across Central and Eastern Europe,” and spoke of new investments in renewable energy, LNG terminals, and interconnectors, noting “This costs a lot. But dependency on Russian fossil fuels comes at a much higher price.”

Gas prices have risen by more than 10 times compared to before the pandemic. Making ends meet is becoming a source of anxiety for millions of businesses and households.” Yet that pain has only just started to be felt. It remains to be seen if her assertion that “Europeans are also coping courageously with this” will remain true, as she offered Stakhanovite stories of ceramics factories in central Italy that have moved their shifts to early morning, to benefit from lower energy prices. Such sacrifice! But any others are just going to close completely. Indeed, although VDL proclaimed that “We were in the deepest recession since World War 2. We achieved the fastest recovery since the post-war boom,” some now fear the deepest recession since World War 2 all over again, especially as US shale warns Europe that it won’t be able to step up to fill demand gaps this winter.

Indeed, as France capped energy price hikes at 15%, VDL proposed electricity rationing, without details of how; she merely added that defraying the higher bills that are looming with windfall taxes and revenue caps: so where does the capital come from to invest in all this new energy supply? No answers. The TTF gas market will also be shaken up to establish a more representative benchmark – based on what?

The EU will also now take into account the specific nature of its relationship with energy suppliers, labelling them in a ‘traffic lights’ system from unreliable to reliable: and what if many are red or amber, given Europe has not yet gone green? VDL acknowledged the EU is short of the metals it needs for that transition, and that “almost 90% of rare earths and 60% of lithium are processed in China.” In response, she announced a European Critical Raw Materials Act, which will identify strategic projects all along the supply chain, from extraction to refining, from processing to recycling, and build up strategic reserves where supply is at risk. Many of us can point to where all this green stuff is on a map; and who owns the mines; and which direction the commodities flow; and how rough this Great Game is on the ground. It’s doing something about it that is hard and expensive.

Apparently all is well though, as VDL noted: “Five years ago, Europe launched the Battery Alliance. And soon, two third of the batteries we need will be produced in Europe.” How soon? And what energy source will be powering all this cars switching from oil? She also boasted: “Last year I announced the European Chips Act. And the first chips gigafactory will break ground in the coming months.” So, years from completion. And what energy will be powering it, as at least one EU national leader worries about “de-industrialisation”?

Then it was back to valuesThis watershed moment in global politics calls for a rethink of our foreign policy agenda. This is the time to invest in the power of democracies. This work begins with the core group of our like-minded partners: our friends in every single democratic nation on this globe. We see the world with the same eyes. And we should mobilize our collective power to shape global goods. We should strive to expand this core of democracies.“ VDL will find most of the countries selling most of the green goods the EU needs most are not democracies. And note her pledge that: “I want the people of the Western Balkans, of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to know: You are part of our family, your future is in our Union, and our Union is not complete without you!” Russia will love that. So will China.

VDL also spoke of the Global Gateway investment plan announced in last year’s SoTU. Apparently this has already built two factories in Africa to manufacture mRNA vaccines: two. Not quite the Marshal Plan. Indeed, the scheme “requires investment on a global scale, so we will team up with our friends in the US and with other G7 partners to make this happen.”

Then there was another geopolitical message: “We should not lose sight of the way foreign autocrats are targeting our own countries. Foreign entities are funding institutes that undermine our values. Their disinformation is spreading from the internet to the halls of our universities… These lies are toxic for our democracies. Think about this: We introduced legislation to screen foreign direct investment in our companies for security concerns. If we do that for our economy, shouldn’t we do the same for our values? We need to better shield ourselves from malign interference. This is why we will present a Defence of Democracy package. It will bring covert foreign influence and shady funding to light. We will not allow any autocracy’s Trojan horses to attack our democracies from within.

In short, the SoTU sounded like a Cold War-era US equivalent – without the guns behind itWhat the EU is promising is not just a semi war/planned-economy from energy and green supplies up, but muscular liberal-democratic mercantilism from the top down. Such a policy shift was 100% predictable years ago (in this Daily!) without the help of dialectical materialism; all one needed was realpolitik, materialism, and the empiricism of why we had empires and “-isms”

The problem is the EU doesn’t have the muscles to match yet. Indeed, VDL failed to address the full scale of the multidimensional challenges, and sacrifices, the EU will face if it is to thrive in a realpolitik world. The energy crisis will rage for years, with untold pain and at unknown cost: and Europe will simultaneously have to rearm, even as its industrial production will slow. Indeed, as she was speaking, Armenia and Azerbaijan slipped closer to war, the former calling on Russia for help, the latter likely on NATO member Turkey. Shortly after she spoke, Ukraine proposed the EU and US should offer it defence guarantees without NATO membership – and Russia responded that implied a nuclear holocaust.

It may have been expected, and necessary, for VDL to have been ‘laying down the law’ in the way she did: but if you want to be sheriff then you have to accept that there are real bad guys out there, and High Noons. “Long live Europe”, as she concluded – but not by denying that fact.

VDL wasn’t alone in that deliberate oversight though. Markets slept through the whole SoTU as if none of this matters, is already priced in, or won’t happen. The main action was instead the BOJ threatening to intervene to prop up JPY at the same time as the government announced a new fiscal stimulus program – policies that lean in entirely different directions.

Japan (and Australia and New Zealand) echo Europe’s experience of waking up to a cold, harsh, more lawless geopolitical world, and thrashing around for a policy framework that matches.

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

The Energy Market’s Next Crisis: Oil Tanker Shortages

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • As the EU ban on Russian oil and fuels looms, demand for tankers – particularly ice tankers – has been climbing.
  • In early August, the average profit for an oil product tanker jumped to the highest level since 1997, and it is likely that profits have increased since then.
  • Fuel markets worldwide are also tight which, combined with soaring tanker prices, will only add to inflation fears.

In the new era of energy shortages, one aspect of the situation has tended to get overlooked: the transport of energy.

Demand for tankers has been on the rise since the European Union slapped sanctions on Russia in the spring, and this trend is only going to intensify in the coming months as the EU embargo on Russian oil and fuels enters into effect.

Bloomberg reported this week that shipping companies were scrambling to get their hands on as many ice-class tankers as they could ahead of the embargo, which comes into effect in early December for crude oil and two months later for fuels.

The vessels will be necessary to continue moving Russian oil and fuels in non-European directions, the report noted, as the EU would no longer be able to buy them, even though European buyers are currently stocking up on Russian oil and fuels in anticipation of the embargo.

The war in Ukraine and the EU’s response to it have already livened up the global tanker market considerably – and with it, freight costs for hydrocarbons.

Since the February 24 invasion, demand for tankers has spiked and is likely to remain robust in the observable future, not least because supply is quite limited, Svelland Capital’s Tor Svelland told CNBC in August.

Few tankers have been built in the past few years, and since this is not something the industry can reverse overnight, supply will probably remain tight, pushing the cost of transporting oil and fuels higher.

Indeed, in early August, Bloomberg again reported that the global tanker market was seeing the strongest demand in more than two decades. Citing data from Clarkson Research Services, the report said the average profit for an oil product tanker in the two weeks to August 8 had jumped to $400,000 – the highest since 1997.

By now, this figure is likely even higher, and it will continue up as demand for fuels outpaces supply in the coming months. The fuel market is already tight, but with the entry into effect of the EU fuel embargo against Russia, it is only going to become tighter, further intensifying competition for a limited fleet of fuel tankers.

“The EU ban on Russian oil products from February 2023 will spark a recalibration of the oil trade ecosystem,” Danish shipping company Torm said in a statement quoted by Bloomberg.

“Some of this trade recalibration has already started.”

The recalibration will involve not only more tankers to carry Russian fuel and crude to non-European destinations but also more tankers to supply Europe with oil and fuel from non-Russian locations, including, very likely, places like China and India that process Russian crude into fuels they then export to, among others, Europe.

On top of this expected tightness of the tanker market, which will have a palpable effect on fuel prices, the global fuel market is also tight and likely to remain so in the coming years.

According to a Reuters report citing S&P research, the reason is a record slump in global refining capacity, by 3.8 million barrels daily between March 2020 and July 2022, according to a Reuters report citing S&P research.

While refining capacity shrunk, fuel demand increased by 5.6 million bpd, creating a sizeable gap with supply based on refining capacity. New refining capacity of some 2 million bpd should come on stream by the end of next year unless delays occur, which is quite likely, according to the S&P research.

Further capacity increases are much less likely as refiners are suspicious that the energy transition push will turn potential new refineries into stranded assets before too long.

In this situation, the future does not look good for fuel affordability or wide availability. As the EU oil and fuel embargo enters into effect, Russia will turn to new clients in Asia, Africa, and, according to Bloomberg, Latin America. The EU itself will need to source its fuels from places like the Middle East, the U.S., and, as noted, India and China.

Because of the tight supply situation, which would certainly add a premium to fuel prices, it is not inconceivable that countries importing fuels from Russia, such as the two Asian giants and Saudi Arabia, could choose to do what China does with Russian LNG: resell it to Europe at a premium.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is experiencing its own constraints with fuel inventories, notably middle distillate inventories, diesel and jet fuel. What this means for Europe is that the help it can expect from the U.S. in the form of higher fuel exports would be limited: there is simply not enough diesel fuel to export. This could add a further premium to fuel prices this winter.

Tankers and fuels between them are about to make fuel costlier this winter as the world tries to fight inflation. Tankers and fuels won’t help that fight.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99880 UP  0.0003 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY GREEN 

USA/ YEN 143.31   UP .425 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1552 DOWN   0.0029

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 37.66 PTS OR 1.16%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.28 PTS OR 0.44%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.15%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 83.28 PTS OR 0.44% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.66 PTS OR 1.16% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.15% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 57.29 OR 0.21%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1686.95

silver:$19.42

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 109.35 DOWN 2  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.78% UP 14  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% UP 0    AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.89%// UP 5  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.04  UP 6   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1743% UP 6 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.99930 UP  .0011   or 11 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.43 UP .503 OR YEN  DOWN 50 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1491DOWN .0053 OR 53 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0040 OR 40 BASIS pts  to 1.32000

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DWN 6.9945 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0079

TURKISH LIRA:  18.26  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.453% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.479 UP 1  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.39 UP 2 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 4.77 PTS OR  0.07%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 7.34 POINTS OR 0.55%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 64.57 PTS OR 1.04% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 29.30 OR  0.37%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 47,64PTS OR  0.21%

WTI Oil price 84.82  12: EST

Brent Oil:  90.86   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.24  DOWN 0  AND 35/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.743

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9992 UP .0010     OR  10 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1464 DOWN  .0080 or  80 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.53 UP 0.612//YEN DOWN 61 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3238 UP 0.0078  (CDN dollar, DOWN 78 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 85,02

Brent OIL:  90.67

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.453 UP 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.472  UP 1 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.26

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.80  UP 0 AND  8/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 173.27 PTS OR 0.56 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 206.91 PTS OR 1.71%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26,92 UP 0.36 PTS (1.41)%

GLD: $154.97 DOWN 2.96 OR 1.87%

SLV/ $17.63 DOWN 37 CENTS OR 2.06%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

“I Love The Smell Of Liquidation In The Morning…”

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Economic data this morning was mixed enough to perhaps be goldilocks for The Fed (better than expected claims data and Empire Fed survey trumped by weak and revised down retail sales, weaker industrial production, and falling capacity utilization): not bad enough to warrant a pause and not strong enough to encourage The Fed to hike 100bps next week. This sent Sept odds of a 100bps hike down, but odds of a 75bps hike in Nov higher…

Source: Bloomberg

But saw overall rate-hike expectations tighten further

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, with traders facing $3.2 trillion of options expiration and the beginning of the buyback-blackout window tomorrow, it is perhaps not surprising that we puked hard today as derisking was the name of the game and the early action had the stench of liquidation across many markets.

The Nasdaq was the day’s worst performer, down 1.7% with The Dow the prettiest horse in the glue factory (down 0.5%)…

Interesting that this morning saw a quick and hard 3effort to ignite a short-squeeze… but that failed really fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher on the day but the long-end significantly outperformed while 2Y blew out further…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) continued to invert even deeper (its most inverted since Sept 2000)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar drifted modestly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Helped in large part to a puke in Chinese yuan (back above 7/USD once again)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Canadian Dollar tumbled to pre-pandemic plunge levels today…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was dumped across the board with Ethereum hit hardest – after its successful ‘Merge’ – back to $1500 (3 week lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold prices were monkeyhammered even deeper below $1700 to their lowest since April 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

For the gold-bugs, let’s hope real-yields are being mispriced here…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude tumbled lower on the day…

And finally, how does S&P 500 at 2000 sound?

Source: Bloomberg

Or Nasdaq 10,000 in the short-term?

Source: Bloomberg

Still think The Fed would never allow that?

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

Everything’s Suddenly Puking… Except Bonds

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 11:06 AM

It’s unclear what the catalyst for this leg lower is – US macro data was mixed at best with labor signals better while manufacturing was weaker and surveys confused – but markets are puking after an early bid…

Stocks have erased all of the late-day panic-bid in stocks yesterday and more…

Crude is getting clubbed like a baby seal…

Gold is tanking, unable to hold $1700…

Ethereum plunged at the same time…

Notably, some early weakness was seen when the Chinese Yuan broke above 7/USD…

And while rate-hike expectations continue to rise…

…Treasury yields are not ‘suddenly’ stressed like the rest of the market (with all the selling coming during the Asian hours)…

Perhaps the overnight rise in yields was the last straw for long-duration assets?

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

Atlanta Fed slashes 3rd quarter GDP down to only .5%

(zerohedge)

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Estimate Despite Surge In Government-Spending

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 12:37 PM

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.5 percent now, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1.

Downward revisions to July retail sales data and weakness in the control group weighed on growth in Q3 with weak import and export prices, as well as disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization numbers also dragging down estimates.

The Atlanta Fed breaks down the driver of the reduction – and the fact the government is all that’s left to keep the dream alive… as they are supposed to be fighting inflation:

After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent.

So to summarize – we are just fractions away from a 3rd negative quarterly GDP print with only two weeks left in the quarter.

Finally, remember, it’s not a “recession”, it’s a “special economic operation”

end

Core retail sales disappoint in August with July revised down due to unaffordability

(zerohedge)

Core Retail Sales Disappoints In August, July Revised Down

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 08:38 AM

While consensus expected a 0.1% drop in headline retail sales in August, BofA was more optimistic (due to inflation – remember retail sales data is ‘notional’ not ‘real’)…

BofA was correct on the headline retail sales print – which rose 0.3% MoM – but we note that July was revised down to a 0.4% drop (from unchanged initial print)

Source: Bloomberg

But core (Ex-Autos) tumbled 0.3% MoM (against expectations of unch) and Ex-Autos and Gas also disappointed (+0.3% MoM vs +0.5% MoM exp)…

Once again, all these numbers need to be adjusted for inflation – which surprised to the upside in August – and that suggests demand pressures on a volume basis.

Gas stations saw sales tumble 4.2% MoM (as prices dropped) but motor vehicles & parts dealers saw sales rise 2.8% MoM…

Online sales dropped for the first time since March…

Finally, the Control Group – which feeds through to GDP – was very disappointing. Against expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise, it was unchanged in September.

END

Employment scare seems over as initial jobless claims crash to 53 yr lows and continuing claims flat

(zerohedge)

Non-Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims Crash To 53-Year-Lows

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 08:58 AM

Judging by the data, it appears the employment scare from Q2 is over as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first fell to just 213k last week and continuing claims were flat at 1.403mm…

Texas and California saw the biggest drop initial claims while Massachusetts and Indiana saw the biggest weekly rise…

Finally, and even more shocking for many – amid the record low consumer sentiment, widespread layoffs, and now crashing stocks – is that non-seaonally-adjusted jobless claims plunged last week to the lowest since 1969!

This is not good news for bulls hoping for Powell to pivot as this suggests the labor market has never been tighter?…

end

But industrial production dropped in August. It does not look like a healthy economy

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Dropped In August

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 09:26 AM

US Industrial Production fell in August, dropping 0.2% MoM (vs 0.0% expected) and saw July revised lower also. August was the biggest MoM drop since Sept 2021

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 3rd monthly drop in 4 months as utilities fell 2.3% in August (after dropping 1.2% in July).

Manufacturing managed a small monthly gain in August…

Capacity utilization dropped modestly from 80.2% (revised down from 80.3%) to 80.0% in August

Not exactly the picture of a healthy recovering economy…

iii)USA economic commentaries

Always look to Fed Ex to determine how the economy is faring: It plunges to a two year low after withdrawing earnings guidance

(zerohedge)

FedEx Plunges To 2-Year-Lows After Withdrawing Earnings Guidance

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 04:41 PM

In a surprise pre-announcementFedEx said it’s withdrawing its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast as a result of the preliminary 1Q financial performance and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment.

First quarter results were adversely impacted by global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter. FedEx Express results were particularly impacted by macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe, leading to a revenue shortfall in this segment of approximately $500 million relative to company forecasts. FedEx Ground revenue was approximately $300 million below company forecasts.

Specifically for Q1:

  • FedEx prelim 1Q adj EPS $3.44, est. $5.10
  • FedEx prelim 1Q Rev. $23.2B, est. $23.54B
  • FedEx prelim 1Q Adj. oper income $1.23B, est. $1.74B

As a result of the preliminary first quarter financial performance and expectations for a continued volatile operating environment, FedEx is withdrawing its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast provided on June 23, 2022.

Additionally the firm said it was moving to cutting costs:

“While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets.”

As part of these cost-cutting initiatives, FedEx will close 90 office locations, close five corporate office facilities, defer hiring efforts, reduce flights and cancel projects.

Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations,” said Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Corporation president and chief executive officer.

“While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets.”

FDX is down 14% after hours to its lowest since Aug 2020…

As @Knowledge_vital noted:

A “horrible, miserable report… It’s a bit strange to hear $FDX speak so negatively following… conference presentations when no one else hinted at an environment like this. .. However,.. investors should assume EPS estimates across the board are at risk.”

Just remember – it’s still definitely not a recession!

end

First Sanders blocks proposal which would avoid the rail strike

and 

then a tentative deal to avert the strike

(zerohedge/two commentaries)

Bernie Sanders Blocks Proposal Which Would Avoid Rail Strike

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 05:49 PM

Update (1750ET):

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) blocked a Republican effort to require railroad employees and companies to accept recommendations of a nonpartisan panel in order to avoid a strike which, if it goes through, will impact millions of Americans.

The GOP resolution – introduced by Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pension Commission Ranking Member Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MI), would have required railroad workers to adopt the outlines of a labor deal, The Hill reports.

According to the Vermont Senator, railroad companies are making ‘huge profits’ and should treat employees more fairly.

“The rail industry has seen huge profits in recent years and last year alone made a record breaking $20 billion in profit,” he said. “Last year the CEO of CSX made over $20 million in total compensation while the CEOs of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern made over $40 million each in total compensation.”

Sanders contrasted that to freight rail workers who are “entitled to a grand total of zero sick days.”

According to GOP Senators, their resolution would have avoided a “disastrous” rail strike, which could bring rail travel and freight shipments grinding to a halt across the country.

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Democrats were putting the economy at risk.

“If a strike occurs and paralyzes food, fertilizer and energy shipments nationwide, it will be because Democrats blocked this bill,” he tweeted.

The GOP plan would adopt resolutions from President Biden’s Presidential Emergency Board, which recommended a 24% wage increase, retroactive to 2020, as well as annual bonuses of $1,000 and additional paid leave.

“This is the president’s bipartisan emergency board that he set up that came back with a recommendation to the Biden Administration and said here is the solution to this. It should be adopted,” said Burr.

Wicker, meanwhile, said that “The last thing we need is a shutdown of this nation’s rail service, both passenger and freight. And yet, that is what we are facing in less than a day and a half from this moment, a massive rail strike that will virtually shut down our economy.”

According to a GOP aide who spoke with The HillSanders “wants a strike.”

END

Railroads And Unions Reach “Tentative Agreement” To Avert Rail Strike

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 06:31 AM

Update (0751ET):

WSJ noted the White House didn’t provide details of the tentative agreement between freight rail companies and unions. 

The latest headlines show the tentative agreement goes back to unions for a vote:

  • RAIL PARTIES AGREE TO COOLING OFF PERIOD AS PART OF DEAL, A STANDARD PART OF RATIFICATION PROCESS IN CASE VOTE FAILS IN ORDER TO AVERT ANY SHUTDOWN -SOURCE
  • TENTATIVE U.S. RAIL DEAL GOES BACK TO UNIONS FOR A VOTE -SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE SITUATION

Some more good news is Amtrak “is working quickly to restore canceled long distance trains” following the announcement of the tentative deal this morning, avoiding a rail strike Friday. 

*  *  * 

A rail stoppage that threatened to unleash widespread economic damage by snarling critical supply chains appears to have been averted after freight rail companies and union leaders reached a tentative agreement. 

“Following 20 consecutive hours of negotiations at the Department of Labor, rail companies and union negotiators came to a tentative agreement that balances the needs of workers, businesses, and our nation’s economy,” according to a Labor Department statement Thursday morning. 

It was a “hard-fought, mutually beneficial deal,” the statement said. “Our rail system is integral to our supply chain, and a disruption would have had catastrophic impacts on industries, travelers, and families across the country.”

President Biden commented on the agreement between railroads and unions:

“The tentative agreement reached tonight is an important win for our economy and the American people.”

A White House statement said:

“These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned. The agreement is also a victory for railway companies who will be able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come.”

The breakthrough tentative agreement was announced one day before more than 100,000 rail workers were set to strike. Even though most rail unions already agreed on labor contracts, multiple unions holding out represented a large swath of rail workers. Such a disruption would’ve cost the US economy $2 billion per day, shuttering about 30% of domestic freight traffic and stoking inflationary pressures. 

Railroad companies are moving higher premarket on the news. 

Norfolk Southern is up 1.5%, with shares in Union Pacific surging nearly 5%. CSX is up about 2%.

END

As we indicated to you yesterday ,once the mortgage rates climb to 6% that would turn the housing market into a free fall.

(zerohedge)

“This Is The Sharpest Turn In The Housing Market Since The 2008 Crash” As Mortgage Rates Soar Above 6%

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 11:40 AM

And the hits just keep on coming for the US housing sector.

Three months after hitting the highest level in 14 years, on Thursday mortgage rates hit a fresh post-financial crisis high when they topped 6%, a jolt to home buyers who last year were paying less than half that.

The latest mortgage lender survey by Freddie Mac found that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.02% this week, up from 5.89% last week and 2.86% a year ago. The last time rates were this high was in the heart of the financial crisis in November 2008, when the U.S. was deep in recession.

The jump in mortgage rates – a welcome development by the US central bank which now wants to unleash a crippling recession on the US economy – is one of the most pronounced effects of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to curb inflation by lifting the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses and crush demand for all levered purchases.

Already, it has ushered in a sea change in the housing market by adding hundreds of dollars or more to the monthly cost of a potential buyer’s mortgage payment, slowing what was a red-hot market not so long ago. Higher rates are forcing some would-be buyers to continue renting. Since the start of the year, the average mortgage payment has risen 38.5% to $2,306 from around $1,700 at the start of the year.

Other buyers are skimping elsewhere to make their mortgage payments.

Rising mortgage costs have been among the largest factors hampering affordability in the housing market recently. While home prices and rents have risen swiftly this year, rising mortgage costs have tipped the scales in favor of renting for many Americans.

The swift reversal in rates this year has brought tough times to the mortgage industry. Originations topped $4.4 trillion last year, but are expected to drop to just over half that in 2022, according to forecasts by the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group. Refinancings in particular have slowed down because higher rates erode the benefit for most homeowners. Refinancing activity is down more than 80% from a year ago, MBA said. Just 452,000 homeowners would be good candidates for a refinancing that lowers their rate by at least 0.75 percentage point, according to an analysis by Black Knight Inc., a mortgage technology and data provider. That is down from a peak of over 19 million in late 2020.

As the WSJ reports, would-be buyers like Desi Duncker and Victoria Lauture Duncker are waiting for the market to settle down before moving ahead. They and their daughter moved from Manhattan to Bloomfield, N.J., last year and rented while he introduced his family to the area, where he grew up.

They would like to buy but have been derailed by higher mortgage rates, rising home prices and a decline in the value of their investments, including bitcoin, Mr. Duncker said. Stocks and cryptocurrencies are down sharply this year, slowed in part by the Fed’s higher rates.

“Every possible factor that could have gone against buyers since January has happened,” Duncker said. He keeps a Google Doc with notes about buying and in June began noting that mortgage costs were becoming a problem. They might look to rent an apartment near the train station for now. He commutes into New York City for his job in finance at a tech company.

Meanwhile, despite the soaring mortgage rates, home prices continue to show large gains from a year ago, and as of July the median sales price for an existing was around $400,000 although it has dropped sharply since. Existing-home sales fell for six straight months through July, and the pace of price growth has decelerated.

And signs are pointing to an even sharper slowdown: the good news – so to speak – is that the Fed’s dream of sparking a crash is about to come true: in the four weeks that ended Sept. 4, homes on average sold for 0.3% below their final list price, according to Redfin, a real-estate brokerage. For the year-and-a-half before that, homes were generally selling above list price.  The firm also said that home-touring activity is down 38% from the beginning of the year.

“This is the sharpest turn in the housing market since the housing market crash in 2008,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s Chief Economist.

“We haven’t seen interest rates this high since 2008, 2007, so it is a big change from the housing market we’ve all gotten used to,” Fairweather said.

“Buyers just don’t have the 40% extra money to put towards housing every month,” Fairweather said. “A lot of homebuyers had to  drop out and go to the rental market instead or choose not to buy that second home or investment property.” Redfin said larger cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles are seeing the greatest impacts from this.

“When you’re talking about a $1.5 million home, that’s an extra thousand dollars a month towards a mortgage payment.”

In New Orleans, the president of the Metropolitan Association of Relators David Favret said there’s more homes on the market in his area than in the last two years.

On the flip side, Redfin also said now is still a good time to buy if you qualify for a mortgage because you can always refinance when mortgage rates go back down.

“If you find a house that meets all your needs and you’re going to stay in it for at least 5 years, it’s still a great time to buy,” Fairweather said.

Finally, when asked if we could enter another housing financial crisis, Redfin – which is in the housing business after all – said it’s unlikely.

“People who own homes right now are in a good financial position generally,” Fairweather said. “The criteria for getting a mortgage is really high. It’s not like during the housing market crash when people were getting mortgages they had no business getting.”

Fairweather did say, however, that if we do enter another recession, homebuyers need to consider if they’ll still be able to afford their home if they unexpectedly lose their job. The answer here should be obvious, and is why we are about to see a housing crash that will match if not surpass the bursting of the first housing bubble.

How can you maintain a military force if the military need food stamps to survive

(Martin Armstrong)

Food Stamps For US Soldiers

THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 – 10:27 AM

Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

Washington acts perplexed as to why recruitment is nearing a record low.

Food inflation is on the rise across the world, increasing 10.9% in the US over the last year. This marks the largest 12-month spike in food prices since 1979. The food at home index spiked 15.8%, cereals and bakery goods rose 15%, and dairy products rose 14.9% in the past year alone.

Service members who rely on government pay, not adjusted for inflation, are struggling.

This may come as a surprise – the Pentagon believes 24% of enlisted personnel are food insecure. How on Earth could the US expect to maintain a strong military when nearly a quarter of members cannot provide their families with food? The military budget is certainly not hurting for funds.

The US Army is now recommending that service members apply for food stamps. So, instead of using the funds from the military budget, the government wants to take those funds from a program designed for low-income individuals.

With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” the guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads.

“Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”

Grinston goes on to recommend resources for managing debt, spending, and taxes. Soldiers can request to receive a 6% interest rate cap on debts incurred prior to serving. This includes credit cards, loans, and mortgages. Take advantage of this service and any military benefits if you have the opportunity.

It is a shame that the men and women fighting for our country are surviving on food stamps. Maybe instead of paying off military contractors, sending endless funds to foreign nations, and “10% to the big guy,” the US government can help those who risk their lives to serve and protect our diminishing freedoms. 

SWAMP STORIES

Funny!!

Ron DeSantis: Florida governor takes credit for sending migrants to Martha’s Vineyard – BBC News

Robert Hryniak8:47 AM (2 minutes ago)
to

If more politicians did this the problem would be fixed.
Even Toronto buses homeless to smaller cities like Windsor with one way fares
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62911630

KING REPORT

The King Report September 15, 2022 Issue 6844Independent View of the News
 Apparently, retail investors and guppy traders were buyers during Tuesday’s equity tumble.  They have been conditioned to buy all dips and will continue to do so until sufficient punishment disabuses them of the harmful behavior.  Yes, Virginia, this is behavior that Fed has cultivated of many years.
 
@GunjanJS: The most popular buys among individual investors on Fidelity yest were Tesla and Apple shares–lots more big tech on the list https://t.co/py9ioqBXKT
 
Markets Keep Making the Same Mistake About Inflation (Powell shares culpability)
The danger is that stocks and bonds have further to fall because investors are still clinging to the vestiges of the belief that inflation will soon be conquered
    Investors made a huge mistake over the summer, misreading the economy and, even worse, misreading the Federal Reserve. The scale of the mistake became obvious on Tuesday and led to the biggest one-day selloff in more than two years.   But the error—a belief that peak inflation will allow the Fed to ease after reaching peak rates early next year—continues to underpin bond, stock and futures prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-keep-making-the-same-mistake-about-inflation-11663163494
 
Germany Weighs Nationalizing Uniper as Energy Crisis WorsensStruggling gas giant hit by 12 billion-euro loss in first halfGovernment also considering lifting Uniper stake above 50%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/germany-mulls-nationalizing-uniper-as-energy-crisis-worsens
 
Germany’s Uniper says government might take controlling stakeGermany could take 88% stake -BernsteinShares fall 20%, hit all-time lowhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-weighs-nationalizing-uniper-energy-crisis-worsens-bloomberg-news-2022-09-14/
 
EU Seeks to Raise $140 Billion Clawing Back Energy Profits – Bloc’s executive arm plans to publish proposals on Wednesday but blueprint still needs approval from member countries
https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-seeks-to-raise-140-billion-clawing-back-energy-profits-11663153885
 
US August PPI -0.1m/m as expected, 8.7% y/y (8.8% expected); Core PPI 0.4% m/m (0.3% expected), 7.3% y/y (7% expected)
 
ESZs trade sideways, in mostly positive territory, during Asian trading on Wednesday.  The rally for the European open occurred on schedule; but it peaked at 3:09 ET, must 9 minutes after the open.  ESZs and stocks then sank until the US bond market opening at 8 ET.
 
The rally for the NYSE open commenced on schedule.  But selling appeared on the NYSE open.  Someone then juiced ESZs from 3949.25 at 9:34 ET to 3975.50 at 9:45 ET.  Alas, sellers were in the market; ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 3936.50 at 10:27 ET.
 
Someone wanted to drive ESZs and stocks higher, perhaps for the usual Weird Wednesday manipulation to squeeze expiring call options.  ESZs soared to a daily high of 3981.25 at 11:12 ET.  An A-B-C decline developed; it ended with a Noon Balloon.  After a modest midday rally, stocks broke down at 13:22 ET.
 
After dropping 35 handles, ESZs bottomed 3mintues before the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.  After a 16-handle rally, ESZs broke lower on this: AMTRAK CANCELING ALL LONG-DISTANCE TRAINS STARTING SEPT. 15   14:51 ET
 
Despite the looming US rail workers strike, the usual last-hour manipulation commenced on schedule.  The rally was brief; ESZs and stocks sank to new daily lows.  With 25 minutes remaining in NYSE trading, someone manipulated ESZs 39.00 higher by the close.  Where’s the SEC?
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Early Euro & US equity trader rallies, abetted by threats of yen intervention and expiry manipulation
Blatant upward manipulation appeared during the final 27 minutes of NYSE trading
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds traded mostly between small gains and losses
There were three significant ESZ declines for the day
Energy commodities rallied sharply
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How low will stocks go?  How high will the Fed go?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3940.09
Previous session High/Low3961.94; 3912.18
 
The Biggest Looming Crisis You’ve Heard Almost Nothing About
Starting sometime Friday — perhaps as early as just after midnight — U.S. freight-rail workers could go on strike or experience a lockout, and the economic consequences could be far-reaching…
    The American Association of Railroads said this week that it’s begun taking steps to secure the shipments of hazardous and security-sensitive materials, such as chlorine used to purify drinking water and chemicals used in fertilizer. It also warned that “other freight customers may also start to experience delayed or suspended service over the course of [this] week, as the railroads prepare for the possibility that current labor negotiations do not result in a resolution and are required to safely and securely reduce operations.”
    At noon today, Norfolk Southern will close all gates to intermodal traffic — that means anything using multiple modes of transportation such as rail, ship, aircraft, and truck. BSNF Railway, one of the largest freight railroads in North America, stopped accepting intermodal traffic as of 12:01 a.m. this morning.  Amtrak has already suspended most cross-country routes… What Americans will notice is all kinds of products getting scarcer and more expensive (again)…
    In case you’re wondering, no, trucks cannot pick up the slack. The American Trucking Association says it simply doesn’t have the spare trucks or manpower…
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-biggest-looming-crisis-youve-heard-almost-nothing-about/
 
Putin’s limousine is ‘hit by loud bang’ in possible ‘attack’ – but Russian leader is left unharmed – according to anti-Kremlin sources who revealed health scares…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11212515/Putins-limousine-hit-loud-bang-possible-attack.html
 
Top House Republican roasts ‘fool’ Joe Biden for celebrating passage of spending bill as inflation rises https://t.co/kaLPiQLjg6
 
Nancy Pelosi nudges audience to clap during White House lawn event: ‘That’s an applause line’
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the audience to clap while praising President Biden for ‘extraordinary leadership’   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nancy-pelosi-nudges-audience-clap-during-white-house-lawn-event-applause-line
 
CNN cuts away from Biden inflation reduction party as stocks plunge https://t.co/P3iuiyXRHw
 
Biden tests out luxury vehicles as inflation saps US wages and savings https://trib.al/OnogbDQ
 
@seanmdav (on why The Big Guy keeps scurrying to Delaware): Biden does this when he doesn’t want his guests to show up on White House visitor logs.
 
@McClellanOsc: Why is 2022 seeing a bear market? Short answer: Liquidity. Fed is taking away the punch bowl, and Congress is taking too much money out of the economy in the form of taxes. Every time taxes go above 18% of GDP (since the 1930s) we have gotten a recession. Every time.
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1569782700936151041
 
US 2-to-30 Curve Reaches Most Inverted Level This Century (>33bps)
Eclipsing the levels seen in August.  The last time it went further than that was back in 2000… The two-year Treasury rate… climbed as high as 3.83%…
 
Today – A blatant expiry-related ESZ manipulation appeared during the final 25 minutes of NYSE trading on Wednesday.  The compelling question for traders is: Was the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation?  Today shapes up as a contest between expiry manipulators and those caught long going into the CPI report versus fundamental sellers that might be eager to unload ahead of a rail strike.
 
ESZs are +2.50 at 20:25 ET.  Given tomorrow’s option and futures expiry, today is a crapshoot.
 
Expected economic data: Sept Retail Sales -0.1% m/m, ex-Autos 0%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.5%; Initial Jobless Claims 227k, Continuing Claims 1.478m; Sept Empire Mfg -12.8; Phil Fed Biz Outlook 2.5; Aug Import Prices Index -1.3% m/m, .7% y/y, ex-Petroleum -0.6%; Export Price Index -1.1% m/m, +12/5% y/y; Aug Industrial Production 0.0% m/m, Mfg Production -0.1% m/m, Capacity Utilization 80.2
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4041; 100-day MA: 4018; 150-day MA: 4150; 200-day MA: 4266
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,242; 100-day MA: 32,1958 150-day MA: 33,867; 200-day MA: 33,523
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3919.52 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4018.52 triggers a buy signal
 
FL Gov. DeSantis sent two planes with illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard on Wednesday.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ron-desantis-sends-two-planes-illegal-immigrants-marthas-vineyard
 
GOP Senators Scott, Cruz, and Lee: Republicans must stop caving to Democrats. America needs clean bill to fund government until new Congress
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/republicans-stop-caving-democrats-america-clean-bill-fund-government-until-new-congress
 
Tucker Carlson: Voters Must Make Democrats Pay for Out of Control Crime
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/09/13/tucker_carlson_voters_must_make_democrats_pay_for_out_of_control_crime.html
 
Durham: The FBI Had Danchenko on Payroll as An Informant During the Russian Collusion Investigation – Jon Turley
    The FBI showed a zeal to investigate Trump and his campaign that seemed to border on the blind obsessive…the apparent eagerness of then-FBI Director James Comey and others only magnifies concern over the bureau’s alleged bias or predisposition on the Trump investigation …
    I have previously written about the prominent role of Brookings in spreading the Russian collusion claims and hiring an array of people who played critical roles in these investigations. That also included former FBI general counsel James Baker.  For some, it seemed like not just friends but “friends with benefits.” It seems that everyone in this scandal was six degrees from Brookings.
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/09/14/durham-the-fbi-had-danchenko-on-payroll-as-an-informant-during-the-russian-collusion-investigation/
 
FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell on Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car and Seizes Cell Phone
Trump supporter and 2020 election integrity skeptic Mike Lindell (MyPillow) says he was stopped by the FBI Tuesday and had his cell phone seized… “I can’t even imagine that you can take someone’s phone because they want me to be a witness in the Tina Peters case. But I’m not a witness, they just want my phone.”… Interesting how the Biden DOJ waited more than 18 months – right before midterms – to initiate legal action against Trumpworld.  And Biden said he wouldn’t weaponize the Justice Dept.  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-tracks-down-mike-lindell-hunting-trip-surrounds-his-car-and-seizes-cell-phone
 
@realDonaldTrump: Mike Lindell, “THE Pillow Guy,” was just raided by the FBI. We are now officially living in a Weaponized Police State, Rigged Elections, and all. Our Country is a laughing stock all over the World. The majesty of the United States is gone. Can’t let this happen. Take Back AMERICA!
 
@newsmax: A federal judge appointed by former President Barack Obama has denied a request for the public disclosure of records regarding Hunter Biden’s gun that allegedly was thrown into a trash can in 2018http://bit.ly/3BOYf21
 
@JesseKellyDC: The biggest indictment of the GOP is how unafraid the communists are. They’re conducting themselves as if there will never be any pushback. That’s 100% on the GOP. Don’t ask the biting dog to control himself. Someone must do it for him.
 
@julie_kelly2: My reminder of the women running this show (Biden) behind the scenes.  Lisa Monaco and Avril Haines do NOT want a special master to review what they claim are classified docs. Haines worked for John Brennan (nuff said) and then entered Obama’s inner circle:  Obama-Era ‘Sisters’ Circle Trump – Will the trio of Susan Rice, Avril Haines, and Lisa Monaco get their target or will their exaggerated sense of self finally catch up with them? https://amgreatness.com/2022/08/30/obama-era-sisters-circle-trump/
    Monaco was Mueller COS when he was FBI Director. Tight with Obama, served as his last Homeland Security Advisor, and helped hatch (with Rice and Haines) Russia collusion hoax.  Only 2 GOP senators voted against her confirmation, as I reported 4/21.  My 4/21 column on Haines’ bogus “IC report” on threat of domestic violent extremists.  She’s not authorized to look beyond foreign threats but she doesn’t care. Now she’s leading an “IC review” of Trump docs? Pray the judge finally calls BS on this cabal.
 
Capitol Police whistleblower memo lays out Jan. 6 ‘intelligence failures’ on Pelosi watch
Three days after the Jan. 6 riot, a Capitol Police intelligence analyst sent a blistering email to supervisors, blowing the whistle on a failure to heed clear intelligence that right-wing rioters planned to storm the Capitol… https://t.co/b3Oj3sGCK6
 
Army suggests food stamps for soldiers battling inflation (But billions for Ukraine?)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/army-suggests-food-stamps-soldiers-battling-inflation
 

 

Greg Hunter..interviewing 

See you tommorow

Harvey

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