SEPT 23/2022//CHAOS RUNS SUPREME AS A BLOODBATH IN ALL MARKETS//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $24.60 TO $1648.35//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 68 CENTS TO $18.72//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $54.40 TO $864.00//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $52.35 TO $2071.40//DOW CLOSED DOWN 486.27//BRITISH POUND COLLAPSES INTO THE 1.08 LEVEL TO THE DOLLAR///UK STOCK MARKET PLUMMETS ON TRUSS’S TAX CUTS AS THEIR ECONOMY ENTERS A RECESSION//RUSSIA ENGAGES IN REFERENDUM VOTES IN 4 PROVINCES (OBLASTS) SEEKING INDEPENDENCE FROM UKRAINE AND LOYALTY TO RUSSIA//RUSSIA WARNS THAT THEY WOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO DEFEND ANNEXED UKRAINE TERRITORIES//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $24.60 to $1648.35

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN 68 cents to $18.92

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1644.30

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 18.89

Bitcoin morning price: $18,890 DOWN $594

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $18,772 DOWN 692

Platinum price closing DOWN $54.40 AT  $864.00

Palladium price; closing DOWN $52.35  at $2071.40

END

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,670.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/22/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 124
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 22
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 221 575
690 C ABN AMRO 56
709 C BARCLAYS 502
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
880 H CITIGROUP 332
905 C ADM 10


TOTAL: 932 932

JPMorgan stopped  575/932 contracts

MONTH TO DATE: 9,505_____________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

932 NOTICES FOR 93,200 OZ //2.8989 TONNES

total notices so far: 9505 contracts for 950,500 oz (29.564 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 48 NOTICES FILED FOR 240,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6643 :  for 33,215,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF OF 0.507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.931 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 402  CONTRACTS TO 132,106   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR  GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.10 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10)  AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 900 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE DID HAVE A STRONG SILVER SHORT COVERING. THE SPECS ARE FLEEING  AS FAST AS THEIR LITTLE FEET WILL CARRY THEM. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 355,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +52

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 12,755  contracts:  63.775 million oz  OR 3.986 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (797 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 63.775  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 63.775 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 402 WITH OUR $0.10 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 550 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A//  CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 355,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 952 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.76MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL ARE BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 48  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  240,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 283 CONTRACTS  TO 465,884 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 125  CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $5.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 61,100 OZ //NEW STANDING 30.799 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $5.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5295 OI CONTRACTS 16.469 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5295 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 465,884

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5295 CONTRACTS  WITH 283 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5578 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5295 CONTRACTS OR 16.86 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5578) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (283): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5295 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP OF 61,100 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

44,868 CONTRACTS OR 4,486,800 OZ OR 139.56 TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2804 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 139.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  139.56/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 139.56 TONNES (SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS MONTH) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 402 CONTRACT OI TO 132,106 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 550 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 550  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  550 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 402  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 550  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 952  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.76 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.10

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20L54 PTS OR 0.66%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 214.68 PTS OR 1.18%    /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.92%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1198//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1312//    /Oil DOWN TO 80.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 87.68    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 283 CONTRACTS TO 466,009 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $5.20  IN GOLD PRICING  THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5578 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5578 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :5578 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5578 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 5295  CONTRACTS IN THAT 5578 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 158  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $5.20.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (30.799),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  30.799 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.20) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5295 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS  ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON   THEIR POSITIONS WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN  OF 5420 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (30.799 TONNES)

WE HAD 125  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5420 CONTRACTS OR 542,000  OZ OR 16.86 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 242,315///  fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  251,651/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 23

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz44,320.52 oz
BRINKS
Manfra
1685 kilobars
Manfra









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today932   notice(s)
93,200  OZ
2.8989 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)397 contracts 
39700 oz
1.2348
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9505 notices
950,500 OZ
29.564 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 54,174.440oz( 1685 kilobars)

ii) Out of Manfra:  206.08 oz

total:  54,320.520    oz   

total in tonnes: 1.68 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

JPM/ customer to dealer:  191,845.017  oz 

Brinks: dealer to customer;  35,398.251 0z 

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 1329 contracts having LOST 187 contracts .

We had 798 notices filed on THURSDAY so we  gained a whopping 611 contracts or an additional 61,100 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST ONLY 356 contracts LOWERING TO 41,689.  Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It WILL change!! (Look for a very unusually large Oct. delivery month.)

November GAINED 14 contracts to stand at 354

December GAINED 410 contracts UP to 376,833

We had 932 notice(s) filed today for 93200 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  220 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 932 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 575 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9505) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 1329 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 932 x 100 oz per contract equals 990200 OZ  OR 30.799 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (932) x 100 oz+   (1329)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (932} x 100 oz} which equals 990,200 oz standing OR 30.799  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  30.799 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,250,165.318 oz   76.21 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  26,779,401.170 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,143,659.393  OZ (408.82 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,635,741.747 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,893,494. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 338.83 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 23

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory899.277.167 oz
Brinks
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
Int.Delaware















 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,172,742.451 oz
HSBC
Loomis






 
No of oz served today (contracts)48 CONTRACT(S)
240,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)59 contracts 
(295,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6643 contracts
 33,215,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into HSBC: 572,711.481 oz

ii) Into Loomis:  600,030.970 oz

total deposit:  1,172,742.451l   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 164.074 million oz/316.610million =51.80% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

i) out of HSBC  637,623.472 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  14,471,870 oz

iii)Out of CNT  27,380.505 oz

iv)Out of Delaware:  22,929.340 oz

v) Out of Int Delaware:  206,871.980 oz

total: 899,277.980    oz

 adjustments: 1//   customer to dealer

i) Delaware 19,163.380 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 43.590 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 316.610 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 107 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 36 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

107 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 71 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

355,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 53 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 456 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 44 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 150

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 140 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 116,464

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 48 for  240,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,817// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 66,160 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6643 x 5,000 oz = 33,215,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(107) and the number of notices served upon today 48  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,643 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (107)  – number of notices served upon today (48) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,155,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 43.590 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.510 MILLION OZ represents 77.02% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 39.02 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 43.51 million oz or 89.68% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:50,941// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 43,847contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 950.13 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 481.931 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Chinese Gold Demand Appears To Be Picking Up Again

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 11:45 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold demand in China showed renewed strength over the last two months despite scattered COVID-19 lockdowns. Both gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in August and gold imports in July were up.

China ranks as the world’s number one gold consumer.

Gold withdrawals from the SGE totaled 166 tons in August. That represents a 3% month-on-month rise and an 11% annual increase. According to the World Gold Council, “This was impressive given COVID-19 resurgences and subsequent restrictions imposed on mobility in cities such as Sanya.”

Analysts say manufacturers are stocking up on gold ahead of the peak gold consumption season. This is a good sign that manufacturers expect healthy demand in the coming months. October is traditionally a big month for gold jewelry sales during the seven-day National Day Holiday early in the month.

The most recent gold import numbers also offer a reason for optimism. Imports rocketed upward, increasing by 71 tons in July. Year on year, imports were up by 111 tons. Total gold imports came in at 178 tons on the month. That was the highest July total since 2017.

China shipped in more than 80 tons of Gold from Switzerland alone in July, according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. Imports from the major refining hub more than doubled the June total and were eight times higher than in May.

The WGC said, “This reflects the combination of recent strong gold demand and a rising local gold price premium, which often incentivizes importers.”

The recent increase in gold import activity reverses the decline we saw in the spring. Import numbers dropped significantly in April and May, but rebounded to over 100 tons in June before the big surge in July.

According to Bloomberg“The data indicates that Chinese gold demand is picking up, after being hurt by lockdowns to control Covid outbreaks in several major cities. While the country’s purchases rarely have the power to drive prices higher, they can provide a floor when Western investors sell.”

Last year, China gave the green light to up gold imports. The report notes that China’s returning appetite for gold could potentially “support global prices.” Reuters called the size of the expected Chinese gold imports a “dramatic return to the global bullion market.”

Earlier this year, gold demand seemed to be maintaining the strength we saw in the market late last year, but it fell off dramatically in the spring with rising COVID cases and the government’s response. The big rebound in July indicates the Chinese gold market might be back on track.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

In light of today, this article is worth repeating

(Mathew Piepenburg)

Even A Weaponized Dollar Won’t Stop Gold’s Historical Turning Point

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 12:45 PM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

We have dedicated numerous articles and interviews addressing the dangerous strength of the USD on the heels of a deliberately hawkish Fed hiking rates into what is clearly a recession, official or otherwise.

Explaining the Inexplicable: Rising Rates into a Recession?

On the surface, such central bank tightening in the face of a tanking economy and increasingly volatile risk asset markets makes little sense, as a strong USD and higher interest expense (i.e., interest rate policy) crushes just about every asset class in its wake, from an empirically broken bond market and grotesquely over-valued stock market to the artificially repressed precious metals space.

So, why is the openly cornered Fed acting so openly at odds with the real world and the US economy after years of feeding it instant-liquidity at every “dip,” cough or market sniffle?

The Fake War on Inflation

The standard answer is to “fight” inflation (which the Fed’s own mouse-click money alone created).

But as we’ve also written and observed so many times, a Fed Funds Rate at 3%, 4% or even 5% is not only mathematically crippling to a nation which simply can’t afford such rates, it is equally impotent against a headline CPI print in the 8-9% range (and rising).

In short: Rate hikes won’t defeat money supply driven or supply-constraint driven inflation at all.

Thus, and again, what is the Fed really doing and thinking notwithstanding the official nonsense that makes the headlines or pours from their double-speaking lips?

A Weaponized Fed Running Out of Bullets

One answer: The Fed, like the SWIFT removals and FX reserve freezes, is just another weaponized tool against Russia and the seismic shifts (petrodollar, LBMA alternatives, mono-to-multi-currency trade agreements) resulting globally ever since the openly failed sanctions against Russia were commenced earlier this year.

To any who understand the origins, history and actual practices of the Federal Reserve, the notion that this cabal of private bankers is an “independent” entity is by now an open farce.

That is, the Fed is anything but “independent” and is not only a political fixture of the DC horizon, but rather a political hijacker of the American economy, markets and policy in ways the go far, way far, beyond its supposed “mandate” to simply manage U.S. inflation and employment.

It is my own strong belief that one of the primary motives behind the current rate policy to strengthen the USD has been to help the U.S. government break the financial back of Russia, which like all its prior policies/sanctions (based on the re-invigorated Russian currency, trade surpluses and multi-lateral trade agreements) is failing.

Toward this end, it is far more than likely that the Fed’s “weaponized” rate hiking will continue this week, much, frankly to the chagrin of a temporarily falling gold price.

What one has to ask however, is will this policy backfire as well (?), for it seems that this game of financial chicken with Putin is breaking the back of the US markets and economy (and its EU allies) with far greater effect.

Hubris Comes Before the Fall

I am once again reminded of the 2014 statement made by then U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, that Russia would run out of money long before the West ran out of energy.

Less than a decade after this classic example of American hubris was made, it seems Russia (as well as China, the BRICS and a string cite of emerging market economies) would beg to differ as the world shifts from a U.S.-led mono-currency system to an increasingly multi-national currency, trading and political new direction.

None of this, by the way, will be “orderly.”

Within the US markets and economy, conditions keep trending from bad to worse in every category– from risk assets, social division, and political impotence to the headline-making layoffs at Goldman Sachs, the tanking profits at FedEx and the destruction of the U.S. working class under the invisible tax of persistent rather than “transitory” inflation.

Meanwhile In Europe…

The price for blindly following the so-called “moral” lead of the US in its political and financial war against Putin (to save a less-than-moral thespian like Zelenskyy) is becoming increasingly high as the delusion that Putin has less leverage than the West becomes increasingly harder to sell, swallow or justify.

In addition to facing an extremely cold and expensive winter…

…the Europeans are seeing their currency at 20-year lows against an artificially inflated dollar.

But it’s not only Europe’s (or Japan or England’s) currency which is tanking, but their trade balances as well, which is otherwise atypical, as weakening currencies are supposed to improve rather than weaken export competitivity.

But not this time (see the EU’s trade balance, red line below).

At the End of the Day: Energy Matters

What the failed sanctions, policies and visions of the US-led West are now making abundantly clear is that energy matters, and folks, like it or not, Russia has more of it than the West as the US strangles rather than frees energy production in the US under a suicidal policy of a “green” new normal.

How the West Was Lost

In the immediate years after the Second World War, America’s greatest generation, as well as its dollar and Treasury bond, were undeniable leaders and influencers.

Those days, dollars, bonds and influencers, however, are no more.

But is it not comical to hear the IQ-challenged Governor of a failed state like California pushing electric cars as the new “solution” (?) — an example of open fantasy almost as comical as Christine Lagarde’s latest attempt to blame European inflation on climate change rather than her own bathroom mirror.

Having transitioned from a world of fair pricing, fair wages, gold-backed money, manageable bond obligations and strong exports, America has devolved into a modern feudalism of over-paid executives, a diminishing middle class, Wall Street socialism, a thin-air-backed dollar, a Fed-monetized (i.e., “zombie”) bond market, exported/outsourced labor and hence anemic productivity.

Once the world’s greatest producer and creditor, the US is now its greatest importer and debtor, and has not only exported US productivity to cheaper labor zip codes, but also exported its inflation, thereby destroying US credibility, trust and influence at the same rate America destroyed the inherent purchasing power of its so-called “strong dollar.”

The Real Cost of Only Bad Options Ahead

So, what can the Fed-directed/complicit U.S. do going forward in its pyric financial war against a changing, emerging East?

Well, it can send more debased money and scarce energy to its allies in the EU and Japan to avoid disaster there, which can only mean more not less inflation from sea to shining sea in the US.

Or, perhaps America’s allies in Brussels or Tokyo could cry “uncle” and reach a separate energy agreement with the Eastern nations who actually have the energy they need, an option which not only keeps the folks of the EU and Japan warmer, but improves their embarrassing trade imbalances (above) which resulted from the demands of Biden’s unofficial caretakers rather than the demands of realpolitik.

Of course, any such détente or separate arrangement would have to be paid for with printed euros and Yen, only adding to the global inflationary swamp our central bankers have created since the invention of the first mouse-click money printer.

As a final option, of course, Europe and Japan could simply stay the Western course and suffer an economic and currency crash (as the Yen hits 50-year lows) which would make 2020 or even 2008 seem like pleasant memories.

The West: Marching Toward a Breaking Point (and Pivot)

Without the benefit of a crystal ball or insider-influence within DC, Brussels or even Davos, one can only speculate rather than predict future events as dictated by current political charlatans.

Perhaps Japan and the EU will join the ever-increasing trend as well as crowd toward de-dollarization and reach a separate peace (i.e., trade arrangement) with the East on energy imports.

Equally likely, as well as mathematically essential, is that the Fed, after feigning concern for inflation (which they in fact needed to inflate away Uncle Sam’s bar tab), will pause and then pivot its failed QT policies by early 2023 and bring the USD and interest rates (via YCC) down to levels essential to combat a recession which they pretend doesn’t exist.

Despite all the fake, real, twisted, straight or bent words, facts and policies emerging today, the West in general and the US in particular cannot escape the natural laws of debt nor the hard realities (as well as consequences) of pretending that more debt, paid for with increasingly debased, mouse-clicked currencies, is a viable policy rather than an open comedy, as well as insult to the long-forgotten science of economics.

Once the reality of math supersedes the current DC policy of fluff, distraction and finger-pointing, the USD will come down, bond markets will be further “accommodated” and currencies will be increasingly debased.

At that looming turning point, of course, those holding gold will see its recent lows race toward record highs.

Why so certain?

Because, math, history and common sense have shown us (from the Ming Dynasty or 3rd century Rome, to 18th century France, 20th century Weimar and 21st century America) that all debt-soaked, decadent and fiscally wayward nations destroy their fiat currencies without exception, and the “modern” West will be no exception.

Not at all.

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your weekend reading material: the danger of high interest rates and problems with fiat currencies.

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Gold has never been so attractive

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-22 11:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, September 22, 2022

In our lifetimes we have not seen anything like the developing economic and financial crisis. Rising interest rates are way, way behind reflecting where they should be.

Interest rates have yet to discount the continuing loss of purchasing power in all major currencies. The theory of time preference suggests that central bank interest rates should be multiples higher to compensate for the current loss of currency purchasing power, enhanced counterparty risk, and a rapidly deteriorating economic and monetary outlook.

There is no doubt that the majority of investors are not even aware of the true scale of danger that interest rates pose to their financial assets. Some wealthier, more prescient investors are only in the early stages of beginning to worry. 

But if you liquidate your portfolio, you end up with depreciating cash paying insufficient interest. What can you do to escape the fiat currency trap?

This article argues that having everything in fiat currencies is the problem. The solution is a flight into real money — that is only physical gold, as the rest is rapidly depreciating fiat credit. 

Owning real money is the only way to escape the calamity that is engulfing our current economic, financial, and fiat currency world. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold-has-never-been-so-attractive?gmrefcode=gata

end

For your interest…

(the Hill/GATA)

Trump was once paid in gold bars by leaseholder, book says

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-22 21:09Section: Daily Dispatches

By Zach Schonfeld
The Hill, Washington
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Former President Trump was once paid with dozens of gold bars to cover the lease of a Manhattan parking garage he owned, according to a new book.

New York Times journalist Maggie Haberman’s forthcoming book, titled “Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America,” includes an episode detailing the payment and other business practices, according to an excerpt shared with CNN.


The book, which comes out on Oct. 4, chronicles Trump’s life as a New York City businessman to his rise to the presidency. …

… For the remainder of the report:

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

andrew maguire

Harvey Organ <harveyorgan@gmail.com>9:37 AM (19 minutes ago)
t

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1198

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1312

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 20.54 PTS OR 0.66%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 214.68 PTS OR 1.18%

2. Nikkei closed 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  112.00/Euro FALLS TO 0.97448

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.230/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 142.83/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.025%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.28%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.16%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.64//

3j Gold at $1648.20 silver at: 19.08  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2  AND 02/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.79//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and  87 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 142.83DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9803– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9553well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.774  UP 7 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.675 UP 4 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,41…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Crash, Stocks At 2022 Lows; Yields, Dollar Explode As UK Stimulus Plan Sparks Global Market Panic

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 08:03 AM

One week after stocks suffered their biggest drop since June, futures are in freefall on Friday with the dollar soaring to the now default daily record high…

… 10Y yields exploding higher, surging more than 10bps so far today…

… in what appears to be the latest bond market flash smash which has pushed 10Y yields to the highest level since 2010…

… and S&P futures plunging over 1.4%, and the S&P set to open at a fresh 2022 low…

… with futures set to drop nearly 5% (or more) for a 2nd consecutive week, and down 5 of the past 6 weeks!

Besides the soaring dollar, two other drivers contributed to today’s widespread market panic:

  • first, the shocking UK mini budget saw the country’s new administration slash tax rates by the most since 1970s at a time when the country is about to enter recession and is battling with runaway inflation which crashed UK bonds and sent the pound tumbling to a 37 year low as markets priced in a more aggressive pace of tightening to offset the government’s growth plan,
  • second, traders also freaked out over a Goldman research report which slashed the bank’s S&P price-target to just 3,600 from 4,300, making the bank one of the biggest bears on Wall Street.

In premarket trading, Costco shares declined 3.3% as analysts flagged that volatility may remain high for the company’s shares. Analysts mostly welcomed its report of modest improvements in inflation and supply chains. here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • AMD shares dropped 1.5% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley trimmed price target to $95 from $102, citing a worsening PC end market and headwinds on the client business, including a collapse in gaming GPUs.
  • Tritium DCFC shares jumped 4% in postmarket trading, following six straight losing sessions, after the maker of electric-vehicle chargers reported sales orders of $203 million for fiscal year ended June 30, and revenue of $86 million.
  • CalAmp gained 3% postmarket after the maker of tracking devices posted fiscal 2Q revenue that beat estimates.
  • DocuSign edged higher in postmarket trading after announcing that the board of directors has hired Allan Thygesen as Chief Executive Officer.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped more than 1%, declining 20% from January record high, set to enter a new bear market. Energy, miners and real estate are the worst-performing sectors amid broad-based declines.  Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Credit Suisse shares declined as much as 9.4% to a record low for a second day running, even as the bank denied a report that it was considering an exit from its US operations
  • Ericsson falls as much as 6.1% to 2-year lows after a Radio Sweden report saying the communications equipment maker continued to send products to Russia after saying deliveries had been suspended
  • Energy is among the worst-performing sectors on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index on Friday, with the subindex falling as much as 2.6% to the lowest since July 27 as oil heads for a fourth weekly loss
  • European warehouse firms slide after Barclays issued a review on the sector, cutting target prices on average by 20%, downgrading Tritax Big Box REIT and Warehouses De Pauw to underweight
  • Bureau Veritas falls as much as 5% after Oddo cuts to underperform, saying the valuation gap with peers and recent stock performance seems to leave more downside than upside in relative terms
  • Nordic Semiconductor shares rise after DNB said it had found a component from the firm in the latest version of Apple’s AirPods Pro earphones which were released today. Varta, meanwhile drops as much as 13% after DNB found batteries from its rival Samsung in the new earphones
  • UK homebuilders, retailers and banks get a boost as Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announces several tax relief measures, with much of the sector trimming earlier losses

As reported earlier, UK stocks, bonds and the cable all plunged as traders ramped up their bets on Bank of England rate hikes, betting on a 50% chance of a 100-basis-point increase from the central bank at its next rate decision in November, as the government set out its most radical package of debt-financed tax cuts since 1972 and the Debt Management Office increased its gilt sales plan more than expected.  “The markets will do what they will,” said Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, when challenged in parliament on the mayhem in markets.

The European Central Bank will also forge ahead with increases in borrowing costs, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, even as recession risks rise across the continent.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, with investors continuing to flee riskier assets as Treasury yields surged following the Fed’s rate hike that increased recession fears. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped as much as 1.6% while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index was on course for its sixth weekly retreat, the longest losing streak since May. TSMC and Tencent were the biggest drags on both gauges as the tech sector led declines.  All markets in the region dropped, with several hitting grim milestones. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell to the lowest in more than a decade, while South Korea’s Kospi finished at its lowest since Oct. 2020. Australia’s benchmark fell nearly 2% as the country resumed trading after a holiday. Japan was closed. 

“The intense tightening by the Federal Reserve to go all-out against inflation heightened fears that it could destroy demand and cause a recession,” said Han Jiyoung, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul.    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lost about a third of its value from a 2021 peak as the Fed’s rate-hike campaign and the strengthening US dollar prompted an exodus of funds from emerging markets. China’s regulatory crackdowns and its strict Covid lockdown policies have also weighed on sentiment.   Hong Kong stocks ended in the red even as the city scrapped hotel quarantine for inbound travelers, the most substantial move yet in the city’s push to revive its status as a global financial center. “It’s optimistic to think a recession can be avoided and in our opinion any chance of a soft landing has evaporated,” said George Brown, an economist at Schroders. “We believe a recession will be needed to bring inflation under control.”

In rates, the yield on 10- year Treasuries exploded higher as bonds briefly flash crashed, sending the 10Y yields as low as 3.82% in a bear-flattening move that lifted front-end yields more than 10bp; 2-year and 3-year yields peak above 4.25% with all tenors reaching multiyear highs. Move follows soaring gilt yields where belly of the UK curve is cheaper by 50bp on the day into early US session, while the UK pound drops to a fresh 27-year low as mounting fiscal stimulus threatens to undermine Bank of England’s control on inflation. US yields are cheaper by 12bp to 5bp across the curve with front-end led losses flattening 2s10s by 3.5bp, 5s30s by 7.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.80%, outperforming gilts by ~20bp in the sector. 

In FX, the dollar rallied broadly, hitting a new all-time high against a currency basket and pushing the euro to a 20-year low wjhile the pound plunged to a fresh 35 year low just above 1.10 after the new UK government unveiled a massive fiscal stimulus plan to boost economic growth, which is sure to send inflation soaring even higher and force the BOE to do even more QT and so on. Safe-haven demand also boosted the greenback amid more signs of a slowing Chinese economy, which raised concerns about the outlook for global economic growth.  

  • Broad dollar strength pushed the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index as much as 0.6% higher, hitting its highest on record going back to 2005
  • The euro fell as much as 0.9% to 0.9751, its weakest level since 2002. The single currency extended losses after sizable stop-loss orders were triggered below 0.9800 and 0.9780, a Europe-based trader says. Options-related bids at $0.9750 and $0.9700 were seen offering near-term support.
  • The pound sank nearly 1% to 1.1151, a 35-year low, pushing the Bloomberg UK Pound Index to its a lifetime high. The UK currency trimmed losses as the UK government announced a massive fiscal stimulus plan to boost economic growth.

“For the USD to weaken meaningfully, the Fed has to get more concerned about growth than inflation-and we are not there yet.” Bank of America analysts write in a note. It adds that, for the euro to start appreciating, “the ECB needs not only to act, but also to communicate forcefully.”

In commodities, WTI drops more than 2% lower to trade just above $80, a level where OPEC+ production cuts are expected. Spot gold falls roughly $9 to trade near $1,662/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% near $19.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the September flash PMIs for Europe and the US. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the ECB’s Kazaks and Nagel. Remember the Italian election on Sunday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,752.25
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 145.59
  • MXAPJ down 1.6% to 470.98
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 27,153.83
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,916.12
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 17,933.27
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,088.37
  • Sensex down 1.6% to 58,191.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.9% to 6,574.73
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,290.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 396.36
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.93%
  • Euro down 0.8% to $0.9756
  • Brent Futures down 1.9% to $88.75/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,664.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.60% to 112.03

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • BofA Says Cash is King as Investor Pessimism Hits 2008-Era High
  • Goldman Slashes S&P 500 Target Citing Higher Fed Rates Path
  • UK Sets Out Biggest Tax Cuts Since 1988 to Boost Economic Growth
  • Era of Inflation Has Ended — for Asset Prices on Wall Street
  • Oil Set for Fourth Weekly Loss With Rate Hikes Darkening Outlook
  • Goldman to BofA Throw in the Towel on a Year-End Rally in Europe
  • Treasury Selloff Drives SOFR Spread Toward Record One-Day Drop
  • Wall Street’s Top Banks Are Backing Oil to Stage a Recovery
  • Nasdaq Increases Scrutiny of Small-Cap IPOs After Big Swings
  • Japan Has a Pile of Dollars It Can Tap Before Selling Treasuries
  • Chinese Money Pours Into Offshore Debt After Rare Yield Reversal
  • China Compares Taiwan Independence Push to Charging Rhino
  • China’s Most Locked-Down City Shows Perils of Endless Covid Zero
  • Crypto Outperforms Stocks for a Change as Correlation Breaks
  • Raytheon Beats Lockheed, Boeing on $1 Billion Hypersonic Job
  • Zelle Emerges as Lawmakers’ Surprise Foe at Bank Hearings
  • Alex Jones Renews ‘Deep State’ Claim at Defamation Trial
  • It’s Every Nation for Itself as Dollar Batters Global Currencies
  • Nikola Investor Lost $160,000 on Milton’s Hype, He Tells Jury
  • FedEx to Cut Costs, Hike Rates in Battle Against Flagging Demand
  • With Shelters Overflowing, NYC to Put Up Tents for Migrants
  • Senior-Care Provider Cano Health Said to Weigh Sale
  • Banks Dust Off Lockdown Plans to Beat Possible Power Blackouts

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks were negative in the aftermath of the rush of global central bank rate hikes during ‘Super Thursday’ and with risk appetite not helped by the absence of participants in Japan for the Autumnal Equinox Day. ASX 200 was heavily pressured on return from yesterday’s national day of mourning closure and took its first opportunity to react to the hawkish FOMC with the tech and consumer-related sectors the worst hit. KOSPI declined with the recent flurry of central bank rate hikes adding to the arguments for the BoK to continue on its hiking cycle as South Korean officials look to avert one-sided currency moves. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp slightly deteriorated throughout the session as the early support from reports regarding Hong Kong and Macau potentially easing restrictions for arrivals gradually waned, while US audit watchdog officials recently arrived in Hong Kong for audit inspections as firms seek to avoid delisting from US exchanges.

Top Asian News

  • White House Indo-Pacific coordinator said China clearly has ambitions in the Pacific which have caused concerns among Pacific Island leaders, according to Reuters.
  • Hong Kong will announce today the end of mandatory hotel quarantine for overseas arrivals, according to SCMP.
  • Japan PM Kishida said excessive yen movement repeatedly caused by speculation cannot be overlooked and they will take action should there be any excessive volatility in the yen, according to Reuters.
  • Yuan Weakens to Near Trading Band Limit as Pressure Mounts
  • China Junk Debt Ends Longest Rally of Year as Distress Mounts
  • Times China Told Bondholders It Hasn’t Paid Interest Due Thurs
  • Peak Pessimism Setting in for Chinese Stocks Ahead of Congress
  • Iron Ore Fluctuates as China Steel Hub Tangshan Lifts Lockdowns
  • JPM Analysts Liken UK Bank Deposit Speculation to Windfall Tax

European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5% Pressure that was exacerbated, particularly in the UK, on the mini-Budget and subsequent Gilt/BoE pricing, despite the measures being designed to stimulate the economy. Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentary.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Kazaks says they will continue to hike rates, via Bloomberg; adds, faster Fed hikes have weakened the EUR. His choice for the October ECB hike is either 50bps or 75bps.
  • UK COVID-19 hospitalisations rose 17% in a week which is the first significant increase since July and is sparking fears of a new wave, according to The Telegraph.
  • Credit Suisse Hits Fresh Low; Denies Report of Looming US Exit
  • UK Probably in Recession as Pound’s Weakness Boosts Inflation
  • UK Bonds Plunge as Debt Office Plans More Sales Than Expected
  • VW Warns of Production Shift From Germany Over Gas Shortage
  • Ericsson Governance Worries Mount After Russia Sales Debacle
  • European Watchdog Backs New Trading Halts for Energy Market

FX

  • DXY has surged to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board with the Yuan taking the strain.
  • GBP dented post-PMIs/budget despite initial support from BoE pricing as the USD’s surge continues.
  • Amidst this, EUR has been hit on the flash-PMIs and accompanying commentary around recession fears and a resurgence in price pressures.

Fixed Income

  • Gilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implications
  • Action that has sparked a surge in BoE pricing with markets now implying a 50/50 chance of a 100bp increase in November.
  • More broadly, EGBs and USTs are dragged down in tandem though seem to have reached a ‘floor’ ahead of the afternoon’s events.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears.
  • Additionally, participants are attentive to potential weekend developments with EU member states set to discuss Russian sanctions.
  • Russian President Putin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince MBS and discussed the question of coordination to ensure stability in the oil market, while they praised efforts within the OPEC+ framework and confirmed the intention to continue sticking to existing agreements, according to Reuters.
  • Metals dented across the board by the USD with base metals in particular hit amid broader sentiment with LME Copper slipping below USD 7.5k/T.

US event calendar

  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 46.1, prior 44.6
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 45.5, prior 43.7
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.0, prior 51.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s a bit of a broken record at the moment as markets have again been reeling over the last 24 hours, with another major selloff for bonds and equities taking place after central bankers showed no sign of letting up on their campaign of rate hikes to tackle inflation. The hawkish Fed decision on Wednesday set the backdrop for the slump, but that was compounded by further hikes yesterday in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines. Inturn, that led investors to expect an even more aggressive pace of rate hikes over the months ahead, with current market pricing for each of the Fed, ECB and the BoE indicating that a 75bps hike at the next meeting is now considered the most likely outcome for all three.

In terms of those market moves, equities lost ground across the board as the prospect that tighter monetary policy would trigger recessions moved increasingly into view. The S&P displayed a lot of volatility into the close, ultimately falling -0.84% and moving deeper into bear market territory and on track for its worst annual performance since 2008. Under the hood, sector performance had a consistent macro story, where there was an outperformance in defensives (health care led the way up +0.51%) and an underperformance in cyclicals (discretionary lagged at -2.16%).

In Europe the losses were even more severe as they finally got to react to the Fed’s announcement the previous evening, with the STOXX 600 (-2.09%) actually falling beneath its July lows to close at levels unseen in over 20 months. It’s fascinating that there’s hardly been any wider mention of the Italian election this Sunday even with the centre-right populists ahead in the polls. There are much bigger things to worry about to be fair and it seems that there is limited political appetite in Italy at the moment to deviate too far from EU fiscal rules. See here for our economists’ preview.

The declines mentioned above for equities were just as dramatic for sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr Treasuries surging by +18.4bps to a post-2011 high of 3.71%. That was primarily driven by a rise in real yields, which similarly hit a high for the decade at 1.30%. We did get some positive data on the weekly initial jobless claims, which came in at 213k (vs. 217k expected) for the week ending September 17, and the previous week was revised down -5k. But that just compounded the selloff, since the fact that claims are on a firmly downward trend was seen as giving the Fed even more space to hike rates over the coming months without worrying about a sharp rise in unemployment. Those expectations of additional rate hikes were evident among Fed funds futures, which moved towards the more hawkish FOMC dot plot, with the rate implied by December 2023 up +10.0bps on the day to 4.33%.

Over in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+7.2bps), OATs (+7.8bps) and BTPs (+3.9bps) seeing fresh rises. Gilts were the biggest underperformer however, with 10yr yields up +18.1bps after the Bank of England hiked by 50bps for a second consecutive meeting, taking Bank Rate up to 2.25%. The decision was a 3-way split among policymakers, with 5 of the 9 MPC members in favour of the 50bp hike, 3 members wanting a larger 75bps move, and 1 wanting a smaller 25bps hike. They also voted (unanimously) to reduce the stock of gilts by £80bn over the next 12 months. Our UK economist sees this decision as slightly hawkish (link here), and sees the BoE as having opened the door for a larger rate hike in November. As a result, he now expects that the MPC will deliver a 75bps hike at the next meeting, although this is a very close call, with the terminal rate still reaching 4% in this hiking cycle.

Staying on the UK, it’s also an important day on the fiscal side as new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be unveiling the government’s Growth Plan in the House of Commons this morning. Ahead of that, we got confirmation yesterday that the 1.25pp increase in National Insurance (a payrolls tax) is going to be reversed from 6 November. Otherwise, it’s been widely reported that they’ll confirm that corporation tax will remain frozen at 19%, rather than increasing to 25% as had been planned, and recent days have also seen press speculation about a potential cut to stamp duty (the home purchase tax). Our UK economist has a preview of the event here.

On oil, the EU is apparently working on a new effort to impose a price cap on Russian oil in response to President Putin’s escalation and partial mobilisation announcement yesterday. However, the plan will still face hurdles given the dire energy situation in Europe and the need to arrive at an unanimous decision. Elsewhere, the Nigerian oil minister echoed previous remarks from other cartel members by saying OPEC may need to cut output if prices fell more. Brent crude prices were +0.70% higher, after being as much as +3.31% higher intraday but are back roughly to where they were 24 hours ago this morning in Asia.

Looking elsewhere, there was plenty of other monetary action to digest after Japan intervened to support the Yen for the first time since 1998. That came shortly after the BoJ’s latest decision we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which saw the yen weaken above 145 per US Dollar initially, before the intervention led to a sharp pullback that saw the yen close at 142.39. Confirmation came from Masato Kanda, Japan’s top currency official, who said that “The government is concerned about excessive moves in the foreign exchange markets, and we took decisive action just now”. In a statement from the US Treasury, a spokesperson said that “We understand Japan’s action, which it states aims to reduce recent heighted volatility of the yen.” George Saravelos writes here that the intervention is unlikely to work and could lead to an unnecessary loss of reserves and credibility.

Asian equity markets are limping towards a sixth weekly loss this morning. The Kospi (-1.59%) is the largest underperformer across the region mirroring Wall Street losses overnight followed by the Shanghai Composite (-1.08%), CSI (-0.96%) and the Hang Seng (-0.91%). Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with no trading of cash Treasuries in the Asian trading hours. US stock futures are pointing to further declines today with those on the S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.28%) both down.

Early morning data from Australia showed that the flash manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 53.9 in September from 53.8 in August while the services PMI came in at 50.4 compared to 50.2 in August.

In other news, Japan is ending its Covid-19 restrictions and opening the door back up to mass tourism in a move to revive the nation’s tourism industry as the Covid pandemic recedes. The new policies will come into effect on October 11.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, sentiment wasn’t helped after the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area fell to a record low of -28.8 in September on the preliminary reading. Bear in mind that series covers both Covid and the GFC so that’s a seriously negative print. Over in the US, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index fell to 1 in September (vs. 5 expected), marking its lowest level since July 2020.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the September flash PMIs for Europe and the US. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the ECB’s Kazaks and Nagel. Remember the Italian election on Sunday.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Contraction/recession concerns post-PMIs hit sentiment, Gilts sink post-Kwarteng – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 06:59 AM

  • European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction & resurgence in price pressures; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%
  • Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentary
  • Gilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the mini-Budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implications
  • DXY surging to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board, GBP pressure exacerbated post-Kwarteng
  • Crude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears; awaiting potential weekend updates
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs and a speech from Fed Chair Powell.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs and a speech from Fed Chair Powell.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

UK MINI-BUDGET

  • Click here for the newsquawk snap analysis and reaction to the mini-Budget.
  • Chancellor Kwarteng says to support the energy market, is announcing a financing scheme with the BoE; energy cap will reduce cost of servicing index-linked debt.
  • Estimated cost of energy plan is uncertain, total cost likely to be GBP 60bln over the next six-months; It is right to borrow to fund temporary support, like UK did in COVID pandemic.
  • Announced numerous wide-ranging tax reductions/incentives, to be worth GBP 45bln in total.Full details on the newsquawk headline feed
  • UK DMO says net financing requirement for 2022-23 is GBP 234.1bln (April revision: GBP 161.7bln); gross 2022-23 Gilt issuance seen at GBP 193.9bln (vs April revision of GBP 131.5bln). Increased Gilt issuance concentrated on shorter-dated Gilts, DMO to hold one additional conventional Gilt syndication in week of 31st October, for Jan 2038, DMO to hold 13 extra Gilt auctions in the rest of the 2022-23 year.
  • Cost of UK Chancellor Kwarteng’s fiscal package is GBP 161bln over a five-year period, via Bloomberg.
  • UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury says OBR forecast most likely to be published in December; says Government is sticking to its spending review which was published in 2021

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Referendums on Russian annexation begin in occupied Ukrainian territory, according to AFP News Agency.
  • Russia’s Kremlin says “The negotiation process with Ukraine is required to achieve our goals, but we see no signs of resuming it”, via Sky News Arabia.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • G7 Foreign Ministers’ statement noted there is no change in G7 policy positions on Taiwan and called for a peaceful resolution of China-Taiwan issues.

OTHER

  • US State Department senior official said they have hit a wall on the Iran nuclear deal because of Iran’s position and there has been nothing this week indicating Iranians are ready to change. The official said there will be more steps to come after Thursday’s sanctions on Iran which will be to help those who are trying to express themselves, while the US is committed to concluding negotiations on the release of detained US citizens in Iran regardless of the fate of the nuclear deal and there is still debate going on with Iran’s leadership on whether or not a deal is worth taking.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that he had a productive conversation with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kulubaev at the UN General Assembly on shared goals for regional peace, cooperation and prosperity.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%
  • Pressure that was exacerbated, particularly in the UK, on the mini-Budget and subsequent Gilt/BoE pricing, despite the measures being designed to stimulate the economy.
  • Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentary.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has surged to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board with the Yuan taking the strain.
  • GBP dented post-PMIs/budget despite initial support from BoE pricing as the USD‘s surge continues.
  • Amidst this, EUR has been hit on the flash-PMIs and accompanying commentary around recession fears and a resurgence in price pressures.
  • Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Gilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implications
  • Action that has sparked a surge in BoE pricing with markets now implying a 50/50 chance of a 100bp increase in November.
  • More broadly, EGBs and USTs are dragged down in tandem though seem to have reached a ‘floor’ ahead of the afternoon’s events.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears.
  • Additionally, participants are attentive to potential weekend developments with EU member states set to discuss Russian sanctions.
  • Russian President Putin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince MBS and discussed the question of coordination to ensure stability in the oil market, while they praised efforts within the OPEC+ framework and confirmed the intention to continue sticking to existing agreements, according to Reuters.
  • Metals dented across the board by the USD with base metals in particular hit amid broader sentiment with LME Copper slipping below USD 7.5k/T.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Kazaks says they will continue to hike rates, via Bloomberg; adds, faster Fed hikes have weakened the EUR. His choice for the October ECB hike is either 50bps or 75bps.
  • UK COVID-19 hospitalisations rose 17% in a week which is the first significant increase since July and is sparking fears of a new wave, according to The Telegraph.

DATA RECAP

  • EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.9) – “The surge in energy costs has meanwhile reignited inflationary pressures which, having shown some signs of cooling in prior months amid easing supply shortages, have reaccelerated.”
  • EU S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 49.6); Services Flash PMI (Sep) 48.9 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 49.8)
  • UK Flash Composite PMI (Sep) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 49.6) – “Inflationary pressures continue to run higher than at any time in over two decades of survey history prior to the pandemic.”
  • UK Flash Services PMI (Sep) 49.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.9); Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.5 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.3)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -49 vs. Exp. -42.0 (Prev. -44.0); lowest since records began in 1974.
  • German S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 45.9 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 46.9) – “a fresh surge in energy prices has seen business input costs rise at a faster rate for the first time in five months.. leading to a renewed acceleration in average prices”; “The German economy looks set to contract in the third quarter, and with PMI showing the downturn gathering in September and the survey’s forward-looking indicators also deteriorating, the prospects for the fourth quarter are not looking good either
  • French S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 51.2 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 50.4) – “Another worrying find from the latest survey was the pickup in inflationary pressures”; “…raising the risk of a recession in France“.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were negative in the aftermath of the rush of global central bank rate hikes during ‘Super Thursday’ and with risk appetite not helped by the absence of participants in Japan for the Autumnal Equinox Day.
  • ASX 200 was heavily pressured on return from yesterday’s national day of mourning closure and took its first opportunity to react to the hawkish FOMC with the tech and consumer-related sectors the worst hit.
  • KOSPI declined with the recent flurry of central bank rate hikes adding to the arguments for the BoK to continue on its hiking cycle as South Korean officials look to avert one-sided currency moves.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp slightly deteriorated throughout the session as the early support from reports regarding Hong Kong and Macau potentially easing restrictions for arrivals gradually waned, while US audit watchdog officials recently arrived in Hong Kong for audit inspections as firms seek to avoid delisting from US exchanges.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • White House Indo-Pacific coordinator said China clearly has ambitions in the Pacific which have caused concerns among Pacific Island leaders, according to Reuters.
  • Hong Kong will announce today the end of mandatory hotel quarantine for overseas arrivals, according to SCMP.
  • Japan PM Kishida said excessive yen movement repeatedly caused by speculation cannot be overlooked and they will take action should there be any excessive volatility in the yen, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

  • Australian Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 53.9 (Prev. 53.8)
  • Australian Services PMI Flash (Sep) 50.4 (Prev. 50.2)
  • Australian Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 50.8 (Prev. 50.2)
  • end

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20L54 PTS OR 0.66%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 214.68 PTS OR 1.18%    /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.92%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1198//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1312//    /Oil DOWN TO 80.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 87.68    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/RUSSIA

END

CHINA/

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

Truss’s plan revealed.  Pound tanks!

(Market Watch)

Bond yields spike, pound slides to 37-year low as U.K. unveils deficit-funded tax cuts that spark investor worries

Sept. 23, 2022 at 5:25 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

New Chancellor Kwarteng unveils plan that will require £62 billion of gilt salesBond yields spiked on Friday as the U.K. government cut a host of taxes and for the first time quantified the cost of capping energy bills, saying it will cost £60 billion over the next six months.The so-called mini-budget speech from Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng outlined a plan to scrap corporate tax hikes, cut the top rate of personal taxes and lift a cap on banker bonuses.The U.K. Treasury said the cost of the package would be financed by an additional £62 billion of gilt sales.The yield on the 2-year gilt TMBMKGB-02Y, 3.809% shot up 37 basis points to 3.87%. The yield on the 10-year gilt TMBMKGB-10Y, 3.701% jumped 25 basis points to 3.75%, hitting a new 12-year high, continuing a meteoric ascent from 2.6% not even a month ago.The moves are historic — according to data from FactSet, the 2-year yield hasn’t climbed that much since Oct. 3, 2008, when it soared 59 basis points.The pound GBPUSD, -1.57% wobbled after the budget and then skidded to its lowest level in 37 years, falling below $1.11.Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the tax cuts were the biggest since 1972. “That Budget is now known as the worst of modern times. Genuinely, I hope this one works very much better,” he said in a tweet.”The large fiscal spend just announced may boost growth a little in the short-term. But the bigger question is this: who will pay for it,” said George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank. The answer, given the U.K. twin deficits, is foreign savers.”It is extremely unusual for a developed market currency to weaken at the same time as yields are rising sharply. But, this is exactly what has happened since the new Chancellor’s announcement. We worry that investor confidence in the UK’s external sustainability is being eroded fast.”Added Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisor deVere Group: “The Chancellor may have refused to let the Office for Budget Responsibility – a government watchdog – release opinion and analysis about the mini-budget. But the markets have spoken – and they’re not impressed.”Here are the key provisions.Cuts the basic personal tax rate to 19% from 20%, and eliminates the top tax rate of 45% for those making above £150,000Cancels the national insurance hike of 1.25 percentage points from Nov. 6Eliminates a planned increase in the corporate tax rate of 25%, keeping the rate at 19%First-time buyers will only pay stamp duty on homes above £425,000, up from £300,000Freezes taxes on alcohol from February, it what estimates is worth £600 million annuallyThe broader FTSE 100 UKX, -1.93% dropped by over 2%.

END

UK

Early afternoon:

With the pound plummeting, the Bank of England must do a large emergency rate hike

(zerohedge)

Bank Of England Must Do A “Large” Emergency Rate Hike To Avoid Total Disaster, DB Warns

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 01:05 PM

On the one hand, the Bank of England just hiked rates by 50bps, reupped its warning of a recession, and warned that it will have to be much tighter for a long time to come. On the other, in an apparent complete failure in communication, the Truss government and its motley crew of cartoonish officials just cut taxes by the most in almost 50 years, a tax cut which will be funded with more debt. No wonder cable is plunging, gilts are imploding and global markets are cratering on fears that the “UK model” will soon be adopted by the rest of the world (just as Albert Edwards accurately predicted just yesterday).

So what is to be done to avoid a complete disaster? Well, according to DB FX guru George Saravelos, it’s time for central banks to panic, and to put ridiculous governments in their place. Specifically, the strategist writes in a note (available to pro subs) that “a large, inter-meeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week to regain credibility with the market.”

More from the note:

Both the pound and gilts have experienced historical drops today.

We are surprised to read some market commentary in recent hours suggesting that the appropriate monetary policy response to this extreme market volatility is for the Bank of England to reverse its planned sale of gilts.

In our view, such a policy response would make things worse. The market is giving very strong signals that it is no longer willing to fund the UK’s external deficit position at the current configuration of UK real yields and exchange rate.

He is right, of course, but the question is what happens when the market signals the same thing for the US? Actually we know what will happen: QE is back, baby. But we digress: here is Saravelos again:

A monetary policy response to prevent bonds from selling off would not only prevent the necessary rise in real yield to attract foreign buyers, but it would lead the central bank dangerously close to a path of fiscal dominance: a situation where decisions by the fiscal authority (large fiscal spending) and their consequences (higher yields), dominate over the central bank’s primary inflation objective.

In the view of this author, the policy response required to what is going on is clear: a large, inter-meeting rate hike from the Bank of England as soon as next week to regain credibility with the market. And, a strong signal that it willing to do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation down quickly and real yield in to positive territory.

Saravelos has a point, of course, but the bigger issue is that by this time next week the global market crash will be so profound, and so widespread, with tens of trillions in value vaporized, that central banks may have no choice but to do the opposite and resume QE because a few more days of soaring USD and yields and only idiots will be worried about inflation in the coming global depression.

Full note available to pro subs.

EU

How foolish of the EU: not giving asylum to Russians fleeing mobilization

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

EU Divided On Giving Asylum To Russians Fleeing Mobilization

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 07:25 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

An EU spokeswoman for the European Commission said Thursday that the bloc should give asylum to Russians fleeing the mobilization order, but the EU’s members are not on the same page.

Anita Hipper, an EU spokeswoman for migration, said that the situation is “unprecedented” and said work was ongoing between EU members to find a common approach.

The Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have already come out against giving refuge to Russians who are looking to avoid the draft. On Thursday, the Czech Republic said it wouldn’t grant humanitarian visas for Russians fleeing the mobilization.

“I understand that Russians are fleeing from ever more desperate decisions by Putin. But those running because they don’t want to fulfill a duty imposed by their own government, they don’t meet the criteria for humanitarian visa,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky.

In Germany, several officials have signaled Berlin would be willing to take in Russians who don’t want to be drafted.

“Deserters threatened with serious repression can, as a rule, obtain international protection in Germany,” said German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, according to DW.

Under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order for a partial mobilization, 300,000 reservists will be called up. Russian officials say that 300,000 is just 1% of its reserve force, signaling they could later expand the mobilization.

The order sparked protests across Russia, leading to the detention of over 1,300 protesters, according to the Russian human rights group OVD-Info

end.

Poland

Hal Turner Radio Show – NATO INTEL CLASSIFIED AS “SECRET” BEING GIVEN TO UKRAINE; SOME HAS COME INTO MY POSSESSION

Poland has enacted a new law called “Protection of People” .  This law contains provisions like mandatory quarantine; mandatory demolition of buildings; take over private property; no the demonstrations or gatherings allowed; mandatory evacuation a mandatory takeover of private buildings and apartments and mandatory prices for same. SAY GOODBYE to foreign investment in Poland either in industry or in real estate. Sounds much like one should expect of a Socialist Nation. One can ask is Poland returning to it’s past? And traveling to Poland takes on new risks in a uncertain time. 

This comes into effect on January 1, 2023 and presumably will be approved at any time. What is even more interesting is the timing. Because Poland has also commenced the public distribution of iodine pills and one can only assume that they expect some sort of nuclear radiation fallout whether it’s from nuclear plants in the Ukraine or tactical nuclear strikes or perhaps other considerations like attacks on Belarusian Power Plants. After all it is not a secret that Polish troops have trained to take such plants over. Given what has occurred thus far, what do you think a Belarusian or Russian response will be ? Remembering that Belarus now has S400 capability. And this is both a defensive and strike missile system and rumors of Iskanders should not be dismissed. As it is several thousand Polish troops have already died in the Ukraine. This is largely covered up. Do cover ups like this not smack of illicit actions taken by government while lying to the Public?

And what is now clear beyond any doubt is that the US and others are sharing satellite information on Russian troop formations and locations of equipment in the  Ukraine making them complicit in the killing of Russian troops and Chechens and the Donbas militia. This proof is now available on the web for all those interested to see for themselves. Call what you want but with Americans dying in the Ukraine and commanding and directing Ukrainian activities, denial of involvement is longer plausible. It is no different than American troops facilitating the theft of Syrian oil at a rate of 65,000+ barrels daily. That is not deniable, with photographic evidence. However, it seems this has been halted due to certain missile strikes destroying the oil field’s production capability. Notably, no American admission to the missile strikes have been made. But that long line of tankers into Iraq is at a standstill. Ask yourself, who has been profiting from this thievery? Because you can be sure it is not the American public.

When Russia informed the UN it was attacking the Ukraine under Article 51 of the UN charter, no challenge was made. Did America ever invoke this Article in any invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan, or even Vietnam? No they did not. One might call it a double standard of hegemony. 

One cannot predict where all this is going however we can be certain that escalations will occur and the world is becoming more fragile as recessive forces gather speed. And war with Russia will not mask the fallacies of inept politicians and dirty agendas. 

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/nato-intel-classified-as-secret-being-given-to-ukraine-some-has-come-into-my-possession

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Mobilization begins with a huge number against the war.

(zerohedge)

The Mobilization Begins – Scenes Around Russia: “What Are We Going For?”

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 06:00 PM

The day after President Putin’s partial mobilization order – wherein at least 300,000 Russian reservists have been called up – was met Thursday with some scenes of enthusiasm in Moscow, but also many instances of frustration and confusion in various parts of the country.

“Summons delivered to eligible men at midnight. Schoolteachers pressed into handing out draft notices. Men given an hour to pack their things and appear at draft centers,” The Guardian observed. “Women sobbing as they sent their husbands and sons off to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Putin’s speech had cited a “threat to the territorial integrity” of Russia, but in some places sparked immediate protest by local anti-war voices who complain that the country’s young men will be sent to front lines in Ukraine as “cannon fodder”.

This as Russian airports continue to be packed, and tickets abroad reportedly sold out for days or even weeks, as people with means exit the country on fears of being sent to fight…

Thousands of men across Russia were handed draft papers and NGOs helping conscripts were flooded with requests for help Thursday amid the military mobilization launched by President Vladimir Putin to provide extra manpower for the Ukraine war,” The Moscow Times reports Thursday.

“One Muscovite who was detained with her husband at an anti-mobilization demonstration told The Moscow Times that male protesters were given draft papers at the police station.”

Footage of men lined up on the tarmac of a military airbase, wearing civilian clothes while toting military gear bags, has emerged and was circulated on social media after being published by regional outlet Mash.

According to a further description of another scene wherein a Moscow woman watched her husband leave for war:  

“There was a military recruiting officer who gave the detained men draft notifications,” she told The Moscow Times. 

“When the first person was asked to go to a separate room, we did not understand what was going on — but when he returned with a draft slip, we just started crying.”

Recruitment and mobilization has reportedly been met with some pushback and controversy particularly in outlying ethnic minority regions of the Russian Federation.

Another regional report described of some clips being widely shared:

One video, reportedly taken in Yakutia, shows the management of local companies summoning their workers and loading them onto buses heading to recruitment offices.

Another video, taken in the province of Zabaykalsky Krai, north of Mongolia, shows local military enlistment officers “collecting cannon fodder” late at night.

Videos from Chechnya have also appeared. Local warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has seemingly decided to implement Putin’s decree as quickly as possible, gathering several hundred young men.

Tickets for travel abroad have skyrocketed in price, with most being for one-way flights out of the country. 

The Associated Press has meanwhile reported of ongoing anti-war protests popping up in various locales across the country, particularly in large cities

As protest calls circulated online, the Moscow prosecutor’s office warned that organizing or participating in such actions could lead to up to 15 years in prison. Authorities issued similar warnings ahead of other protests recently. Wednesday’s were the first nationwide anti-war protests since the fighting began in late February.

The state communication watchdog Roskomnadzor also warned media that access to their websites would be blocked for transmitting “false information” about the mobilization. It was unclear exactly what that meant.

Protests have been filmed in and around Moscow and St. Petersburg Wednesday night into Thursday, with hundreds of arrests reported…

One activist group was cited in The Guardian as saying of Putin’s Wednesday speech and military order related to Ukraine mobilization, “It’s not a partial mobilization, it’s a 100% mobilization.” 

Men boarding buses in the Belgorod region after being handed their orders…

Writes The Guardian: “During a televised interview on Wednesday, Shoigu said Russia would be targeting 300,000 draftees, mainly those with recent military experience. But the actual number in an order signed by Putin is secret.”

end

‘Return To Our Historical Motherland’: 4 Ukrainian Regions Vote In Referendums On Joining Russia

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 09:45 AM

On Friday Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine kicked off voting in referendums on joining the Russian Federation, according to announcements by a series of separatist leaders, in the biggest political development on the ground thus far in the seven-month long invasion.

These ‘popular referendums’ are taking place in four areas of Ukraine in the east and south, namely the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and in large parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – despite these not yet being under full Russian military control. The voting is expected to continue over a period of five days.

In total the four regions make up nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, and signals huge escalation given this week President Vladimir Putin vowed to use “all the means at our disposal” – including the potential of nuclear arms – to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity”. Of course, by bringing whole swathes of Ukraine into Russia, Putin effectively issued a ‘by all means’ declaration for military defense of these territories.

The Ukrainian presidency’s office denounced the move as illegal and a “propaganda show”, saying, “Today, there is no legal action called a ‘referendum’ in the occupied territories.” According to a statement by Zelensky adviser Mykhailo Podolyak:

There is only – 1. [A] Propaganda show for z-conscription. 2. The territory of Ukraine that needs an immediate release,” he added, citing the “Z” letter and symbol that has become synonymous with Russia’s offensive.

Ukraine’s Western backers have also dismissed the voting as a “sham” – even as there’s widespread acknowledgement the results will likely be overwhelming in favor of joining Russia, given these are by and large places of a concentrated pro-Kremlin and Russian speaking population (especially among those Ukrainians who’ve remained there under Russian occupation).

Western pundits are also seeing the move toward annexation as an act of desperation, following Ukrainian forces’ largely successful counteroffensive which has threatened Moscow’s grip on the east in particular.

But officials from the two breakaway republics in the Donbas in particular have pointed to years of shelling and atrocities conducted by Ukraine’s military and nationalist militias such as Azov battalion.

According to international figures, some 14,000 people had died in total among both sides of fighting in what was essentially a localized civil war since even before the current conflict, since 2014. The Ukrainian government has all along initiated polices in attempts to stamp out Russian language and culture.

The long-awaited referendum has started, which is designed to restore the fair course of things in our land, to return peace to our homes, to consolidate the status of Donbas as part of our historical Motherland – Russia,” Vladimir Bidyovka, head of the People’s Council of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic said in a statement on Friday’s referendum.

Map showing four regions where referendums being held over coming days, via Al Jazeera:

This appears to be a point of no return in the conflict, also following Putin’s ‘partial mobilization’ order this week, with Sky News on Friday quoting the Kremlin as saying, “The negotiation process with Ukraine is required to achieve our goals, but we see no signs of resuming it.”

END

RUSSIA

Russia now prepares to ramp up production of stealth jets

(zerohedge)

Russia Prepares To ‘Ramp Up’ Stealth Jet Production Amid Rising Threat Of War With West

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated this week when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of the country’s military and vowed to use “all available means” to deter future attacks against Russia — a reference to the country’s diverse nuclear weapons arsenal. 

Then Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, provided fresh warnings Thursday on the heels of Putin’s nuclear threats that “Hypersound [hypersonic weapons] will be able to reach targets in Europe and in the United States much faster, guaranteed.” 

Now there’s word that Russian state-owned defense corporation Rostec will increase production of Su-57 5th-generation stealth fighter jets. 

“The Russian Air Force will receive new Su-57 jet fighters this year,” Rostec head Sergey Chemezov said on the company’s Telegram channel. 

Chemezov said the “production speed” of the stealth fighter jets “will be increased.” He said the plant is based in Russia’s Far East and is undergoing expansion to ramp up output. 

The multirole fifth-generation fighter was first delivered to Russia’s Aerospace Force in 2019. A video surfaced in 2018 of the jets used in Syria for combat operations. 

Meanwhile, the US has been training for aerial warfare against Su-57s. We noted in 2019, Nellis Air Force Base had a General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon painted to mimic Russia’s fifth-generation stealth fighter

“The next world war will be fought with fifth-generation fighters and hypersonic weapons,” we said in 2019. 

end

RUSSIA

Good reason to knock the price of gold down and increase the price of the uSA dollar:  Russian nukes can be used to defend the annexed Ukraine according to the 

Kremlin

(zerohedge)

Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 04:45 AM

Once again Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has served the role of issuing more severe ‘read between the lines’ warnings and threats fresh off President Vladimir Putin’s Wednesday speech announcing partial mobilization of national forces and which confirmed referendums of occupied portions of Ukraine to join the Russian Federation. 

Putin’s most alarming line came when he said, “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” following with “It’s not a bluff.” He had also stressed Moscow is ready to use “all available” means to protect its “territorial integrity”. 

Medvedev has taken the president’s words further in Thursday statements, stressing that regarding Russian-seized territory and the move to vote in several areas – including the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions – “there is no going back” and that even a ‘nuclear option’ could be on the table.

“The Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia,” he posted to Telegram. That’s when the former president and top national security official doubled down on Putin’s nuclear warning, stating

Russia has announced that not only mobilization capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection.

Putin and Medvedev’s statements mark the first time any top Russian officials have affirmed readiness to bring newly acquired Russian territories under Moscow’s nuclear doctrine.

However, it remains that Russian forces do not yet control 100% of any of the four main territories where annexation votes are to be held – with some referendums set for early as this weekend according to prior reports. 

To review of the past 48 hours of Kremlin decision-making which is poised to escalate this war even further, here is the logical course of what just got enacted in the call-up of some 300,000 reservists:

  • Conscripts were previously told they won’t be sent to Ukraine to fight because they are stationed/defend inside Russia
  • Ukrainian-held territories are now about to vote to join the Russian Federation.
  • When these territories join Russian then they are “inside Russia.” They are Russian oblasts and attempts to defend (formerly) Ukrainian territory would then mark an invasion of Russian territory supported by NATO equipment. 
  • Thus Medvedev’s warning of ‘willingness’ to use nukes covers these territories inside Ukraine.

Putin’s emphasis of this is “not a bluff” notwithstanding, some analysts say this is all about posturing in order to scare NATO away from escalation

“I think it signals that he wants people to think he would risk nuclear war,” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “I don’t think it means he is any more likely to do it than he was yesterday.”

“If he says that any attack on soil that he calls Russia is going to be a nuclear tripwire, Ukraine’s already broken that in Crimea,” O’Brien added in comments given to NBC. Yet Washington says it is taking this nuclear rhetoric seriously.

As for the White House, President Biden in his Wednesday UN General Assembly speech in New York called out Putin’s “overt, reckless and irresponsible” nuclear threats, warning that such wars should “never be fought” and that Russia’s actions should make everyone’s “blood run cold”. He renewed his warning of “a nuclear war cannot be won” – saying the US does “not seek a cold war”.

end

LEBANON

Boatload from Lebanon to Syria capsizes . Lebanon is in crisis as there are no jobs 

(zerohedge)

‘No Jobs, No Hope’: Boat Carrying Lebanese Migrants Sinks Off Syria, Killing 71

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 01:45 PM

While there have been a number of tragedies over the years involving capsized migrant ships in the Mediterranean, typically coming from northern Africa or Syria amid regional wars, much less common are incidents involving boats from Lebanon.

But amid the last two years of economic collapse, a banking and political crisis, and runaway inflation – some Lebanese are now taking extreme risks. The latest example led to tragedy just off Syria’s coast on Thursday, according to Al Jazeera

Dozens of people have died after a boat carrying migrants and refugees from Lebanon capsized off Syria’s coast, according to the Syrian and Lebanese governments. On Friday, the Lebanese transport minister said that 71 people had died in Thursday’s disaster.

An estimated 120 to 150 had been on board when the boat capsized, with Syrian authorities saying that 20 survivors were pulled out of the water off the coastal city of Tartus, where bodies of the deceased also began appearing. The survivors are being treated in local Syrian hospitals.

The boat had departed Lebanon’s northern Minyeh region on Tuesday, attempting to make the dangerous voyage to Europe as so many refugees during the prior decade of war in Syria had done.

Likely in addition to Lebanese migrants – many reportedly from the impoverished Akkar region – there were Syrians and Palestinians as well, many of them fleeing prior conflict. Families, including children, had been on board.

Relatives are said to be in shock as they await news of their loved ones who were on the boat amid ongoing rescue and recovery efforts. The economic crisis in Lebanon will likely result in more such dangerous attempts to enter Europe by sea

Family members had explained to Khodr that the father had decided to try to go to Europe, despite the risks, because of the ongoing financial crisis in Lebanon, and the lack of opportunities there.

“We’ve spoken to people who’ve survived being in a boat that capsized and what they tell us is we’re going to keep doing it again and again, because there are no jobs,” Khodr added.

And further according to the AP, “Lebanon has a population of 6 million, including 1 million Syrian refugees, and has been in the grips of a severe economic meltdown since late 2019 that has pulled over three-quarters of the population into poverty.”

Russia’s military has been aiding in search and rescue efforts, particularly after bad weather made the mission more difficult, using military planes to locate bodies and any possible remaining survivors. 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//ISRAEL

Hitting all the Israeli newspapers:

Stunning op-ed by Israeli reporter YAFFA SHIR-RAZ: “Adverse Effects of the Pfizer Vaccine Covered Up by the Israeli Ministry of Health”; A leaked video reveals that in June, the researchers presented

serious findings to MOH indicating long-term effects, including some not listed by Pfizer & a causal relationship; MOH published a manipulative report, and told the public that no new signal was found

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 22
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

A leaked video reveals that in June, the researchers presented serious findings to the MOH, that indicated long-term effects, including some not listed by Pfizer, and a causal relationship. The Ministry published a manipulative report, and told the public that no new signal was found. 

SOURCE:

‘The Israeli MOH had no adverse events reporting system for the entire year of 2021. They commissioned a research team to analyze the reports from a new system implemented on December 2021. 

A leaked video reveals that in June, the researchers presented serious findings to the MOH, that indicated long-term effects, including some not listed by Pfizer, and a causal relationship. The Ministry published a manipulative report, and told the public that no new signal was found. 

“Here we will have to really think medical-legal. Why medical-legal? Because for quite a few adverse events we said: ‘OK, it exists, and there is a report, but still get vaccinated.’ I mean, we have to think about how to write it and how to present it correctly. So this will not yield lawsuits later: ‘Wait, wait, wait, you said everything will pass and you can get vaccinated. And now look what happened to me. The phenomenon continues.‘”

The speaker is Prof. Mati Berkowitz, a pediatric specialist, head of the Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology unit at Shamir Medical Center, and head of the research team appointed by the Israeli Ministry of Health (IMOH) to examine the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine. This crucial study was based on a new adverse event reporting system the MOH launched in December 2021 – 12 months AFTER rolling out the vaccines to the public, as the system was implemented in December 2020, as they now officially admit, was dysfunctional and did not allow an analysis of the data. 

In an internal Zoom meeting in early June, the recording of which was leaked to the press, Prof. Berkowitz warned MOH senior officials that they should think carefully how to present his study’s findings to the public, otherwise they may be sued, since they completely contradict the MOH’s claims that serious side effects are rare, short-term and transient. 

After analyzing the reports received over a period of 6 months, the research team found that many serious side effects were in fact long-term, including ones not listed by Pfizer, and established causal relations with the vaccine. Yet, instead of publishing the findings in a transparent manner to the public, the MOH withheld the findings for nearly two months, and when it finally released an official document, it misrepresented and manipulated the findings, minimizing the extent of reports, and stating that no new adverse events (“signals”) were found, and that the events that were detected were not necessarily caused by the vaccine, even though the researchers themselves said the exact opposite. 

As is well known, Israel was crowned, by none other than Pfizer’s CEO Albert Burla, “the world’s laboratory.” And for a good reason. Indeed, Israel has a very high vaccination rate and was the first in the world to give boosters to everyone. In fact, Pfizer’s request for the approval of the boosters was at least partially based on the so-called study conducted in Israel. Israel was also one of the first countries in the world to vaccinate pregnant women.

Yet, as the MOH now admits, during this entire critical year in which the vast majority of Israelis were vaccinated, most of them with 2-3 doses, the vaccine adverse events reporting system was dysfunctional and did not enable a reliable analysis of the data. 

In fact, since the beginning of the vaccination campaign, many Israeli experts have expressed serious concerns regarding the ability of the IMOH to monitor the safety of the vaccine and provide reliable data to the world. Nevertheless, the IMOH told the Israeli public, the FDA, and the entire world that they have a surveillance system, and that they are closely monitoring the data. For example, Prof. Retsef Levy from MIT, an expert in health systems and risk management, voiced serious criticism during a Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meeting on September 17 of last year which focused on the approval of the booster dose, stating that the system is dysfunctional and that the safety of COVID-19 vaccines is not monitored properly. In response, Dr. Sharon Alroi-Preis, the Health Ministry’s head of public services and a top COVID adviser to the Israeli government, claimed that she is “pretty surprised with Retsef Levi’s comment that Israel doesn’t follow adverse events.” Dr. Alroi-Preis stated: “It’s our data. I’m in charge of it. So I know exactly what is being reported to us.”

Only at the end of December 2021, a year after starting the vaccine rollout, did the MOH finally institute a proper system to coincide with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in children aged 5-11. The new system is based on a non-anonymous digital reporting form, which the Ministry asked all public HMOs (Health Management Organizations) to distribute among all patients after they had been vaccinated, so that those who suffered side effects could report them. At the same time, the ministry appointed Prof. Mati Berkowitz and his staff members to analyze the reports. The analysis was done on reports received from the HMOs in Israel over a period of 6 months – from the beginning of December 2021 to the end of May 2022.

The team examined both the close categories of side effects that were set by the MOH (there were 7 such categories), and the free text (they identified 22 categories of side effects). Due to limited time and resources, they decided to first analyze only the 5 most common side effects they identified: 1. neurological injuries; 2. general side effects; 3. menstrual irregularities; 4. musculoskeletal system disorders; and 5. digestive system/kidney and urinary system.

In early June, the researchers presented their findings to MOH senior officials, including Dr. Emilia Anis, head of the MOH’s epidemiological department. Here are their main findings and points:

  1. New signals – The research team identified and characterized side effects not listed by Pfizer, including neurological side effects such as hypoesthesia, paresthesia, tinnitus, and dizziness; back pain; and digestive system symptoms in children (abdominal pain). 
  2. Long-term events – The research team repeatedly stressed during the discussion that their findings indicate that, contrary to what we were told so far, in many cases, serious adverse events are long-term, last weeks, months, a year, or even more, and in some cases – are ongoing, so that the side effect still lasted when the study was over. These include menstrual irregularities and various neurological side effects, muscle-skeletal injuries, GI problems, and kidney and urinary system adverse events.

Re-challenge – The researchers found many cases of re-challenge – recurrence or worsening of a side effect following repeated doses of the vaccine. In fact, they identified cases of re-challenge in all the 5 most common side effects they analyzed – e.g., neurological injuries; general side effects; menstrual irregularities;  musculoskeletal system disorders; and digestive system/kidney and urinary system.

An important example that demonstrates the severity of these findings is menstrual disorders.

Long-lasting – In one of the slides, the researchers wrote: “Studies carried out on the above-mentioned subject noted short-term abnormalities (up to a few days) in the menstrual cycle. However, over 90% of the reports detailing the characteristics of the duration of this adverse event indicate long-term changes (emphasis in the original. Y.S). Over 60% indicate duration of over 3 months.”

Rechallenge – Then in ~10% of the cases, the problem recurred following additional doses.

Professor Retsef Levi, who is also a member of the Israel Public Emergency Council for the COVID 19 Crisis, said in an interview with GB News that the example of long-term menstrual disorders detected in the study also demonstrates the authorities’ response to the public’s reports. 

At first, they utterly deny any causal relationship between these disorders and the COVID-19 vaccines – in this case they denied it despite countless reports that flooded the internet from the very beginning of the vaccination rollout. Then, when the reports still continued and became impossible to deny, the authorities, and experts on their behalf, changed the narrative admitting there might be a relationship, but even if there is one, the symptoms are mild and transient. They only last a few days and they have no future implications on fertility.

The researchers’ conclusions: The findings establish causality, and may lead to lawsuits

1. Causality – The researchers emphasize that, according to the literature, these findings establish causal relations between the vaccine and the side effects.
As can be heard in the following clip, Prof. Berkowitz stresses that it increases the chances of causality “from possible to definite:” 

“One of the things that are strong here is the re-challenge. We know about medications. There is the Naranjo scale [the Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR) Probability Scale]. Naranjo, when there is an adverse event which recurs with the re-challenge, it turns from ‘possible’ to definite, to significant.”

2. Think Medical-Legal – 
as if all this wasn’t damning enough, Prof. Berkowitz warns the MOH officials, in reference to the long-lasting side effects, they should think carefully how to present his study’s findings to the public, since they completely contradict their claims that serious side effects are rare, short-term and transient.

The HMO’s are keeping the data close to their chests

The research team explained during the meeting that their study has one important limitation – they only got cooperation from one small HMO to share the data it received from the new reporting system. (Israel’s health system is divided into 4 different HMO-type organizations; each Israeli is signed up with one of them) None of the other 3 HMO’s shared their data, including Israel’s 2 largest ones – Clalit and Maccabi. Prof. Berkowitz said that they are keeping the data ‘close to their chests.’

The only HMO that did share the data (Meuchedet) is very small, representing only about 15% of the Israeli population, with a heavy religious population, which has lower vaccination rates than the general population, and seldom use smartphones, so most of them were not even able to receive the text message.

Two other limitations mentioned by the research team:

  • The most severe cases were not even included in the analysis. There were 173 cases of hospitalization and ER visits that were separately examined by a dedicated expert committee.
  • The researchers stressed they still have a lot of work to do , since they only analyzed the 5 top common side effects,  but there were 17 others (including cardiovascular, which was 6th most common) that they did not yet analyze.

     

‘The denominator report’ – concealment, manipulation and cover-up 

Although the IMOH was aware of these findings, they withheld them for 2 months, not only from the public, but even from their own expert committee that decided on June 30 to approve the vaccine for infants as young as 6 months. That decision was made 3 weeks after the IMOH had been warned about these results and their implications.

The formal report was finally released, on August 20, in a closed press briefing, and surprisingly, the MOH admitted in the report, black on white, that Israel did not have a functional adverse events reporting system until December 2021. The unbelievable explanation was: “As the vaccination operation progressed, data was received from the anonymous online form, but without the ability to process and professionally validate the data.”

Yet, even after receiving such serious findings and warnings, they manipulated the data and tried to hide crucial information to make the vaccine look safe.

  • ‘No new signal’ – The MOH went so far as to claim there were no new adverse events found in the study that were not already known – no new signals. What about the neurological injuries, which the researchers said are not even mentioned on Pfizer’s label? What about the long duration, or the re-challenge? None of these findings are anywhere to be found in the official report.

Manipulating the numbers – In order to promote the narrative of “rare adverse events,” the MOH divided the number of reports received with a denominator of the total number of doses given in Israel for the entire year and a half since the beginning of the vaccine rollout – ~18 million, hiding the fact that they only instituted the system in December 2021, and that the analysis was done on reports received during the 6 months until May 2022, from one small HMO.

This ignores the known fact that such passive reporting systems cover only a fraction of the actual events. That would still be true even if the system was operational throughout the entire vaccination period and used by all HMOs (which of course is not the current case). This manipulation – using the denominator of the total doses, was repeated in each of the categories of the side effects in the report.

Furthermore, it turns out that in order to downplay the rate of reports on menstrual irregularities, the MOH used a denominator of the total number of all adult doses – ~16 million – and thus, absurdly, included men in the equation of how common menstrual irregularities are.

Global implications

The discussion exposed in the leaked video has far-reaching and worrying implications at a global level. While Israel is a relatively small country, it was dubbed “the world’s laboratory.” The eyes of much of the world were on it, and the FDA and other regulators have repeatedly cited its experience with the vaccine as a basis for policy-making, including for boosters and mandates and much else.

So if Israel did not in fact have a functioning adverse event monitoring system in place and its data was a fiction, and even if when it did launch a proper monitoring system a year too late, with analysis of the system’s findings completely ignored and withheld – what was the FDA really relying on? What were all those regulators relying on?

Links to video clips from the leaked recording,  translated into English, on Rumble:

Israeleak part 1 – Medico-legal

Israeleak part 1B – Rechallenge

Israeleak part 1C

Israeleak Part 2 – Guilt

Israeleak part 3 – Menstrual cycle irregularities

Israeleak Part 4 – No new signals?

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

Sanctions on Russia is leading to higher ship emissions as they travel longer distances

(zerohedge)

Sanctions On Russia Lead To More Ship Emissions, Says Cargill

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The unilateral sanctions that Western countries slapped Moscow with are igniting even more man-made carbon-dioxide emissions from the shipping industry as Europe rejiggers energy supply chains away from Russia by sourcing energy products from far away.

Jan Dieleman, Cargill Inc.’s head of ocean transportation business, told Bloomberg that European importers are hiring tankers for long-distance hauls of energy products from countries halfway around the world. If it weren’t for the sanctions, natural gas and other refined energy products would flow via pipelines from Russia to Europe. 

But since Europe is hellbent on rapidly shifting its entire energy supply chain away from Russia. EU importers are hiring tankers to source liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Asia. 

In a recent note, we outlined the insanity behind the EU’s panic buying of LNG from China. It’s so idiotic because China is just reselling Russian LNG… 

Dieleman said higher fuel costs for vessels mean ship operators are switching to dirtier-burning fuels like diesel or crude oil on these long-haul trips. 

Meanwhile, EU countries are aggressively restarting fossil fuel power plants ahead of what could be a very dark and cold winter. Some governments have even asked residents to burn firewood to heat their homes as the energy crisis could induce rolling blackouts during peak demand hours. 

So the whole strong climate action EU has been promoting to decarbonize its grid to save the planet is at risk of unraveling this winter. 

The very fact that Europe has to source LNG from Asia on longer routes while vessels burn dirtier fuel is entirely hypocritical to the bloc’s stance about saving the planet. For some context, shipping is responsible for almost 3% of man-made carbon-dioxide emissions.

end

Albert Edwards has been without a doubt the most accurate predictor of the USA/Global economy.  After a long hiatus, he has come out with

this warning…..a must read!

(Albert Edwards/zerohedge)

Albert Edwards: The “Ice Age” Is Over, Replaced By The Great Melt And A Crushing “Beta Drought”

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 07:44 AM

After correctly predicting the collapse in the yen and yuan all the way back in March (see “The Biggest Story No-One Is Talking About”: Why Albert Edwards Expects “Something In The Market Is About To Snap“), SocGen’s Albert Edwards had taken a somewhat lengthy sabbatical, reemerging only occasionally to comment on the latest market developments. Which of course meant that all those who were craving his unique style of fire and brimstone were left unsatisfied (especially with Bob Janjuah lost somewhere in the wilderness for the past two years).

Which is why we were delighted to read Albert’s latest note in which he goes back to his maximalist (or is that minimalist) roots with a bang, and when mourning the death of that economic ideology that prevented politicians from breaking free from the shackles fiscal austerity, Edwards regards the “super-expansionary monetary policy” with which central bankers filled the economic void, and summarizes the current landscape as follows: “aggressive fiscal activism reigns supreme, most visible currently in the UK. This will bring higher growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates across the curve.”

What does this mean for investors? Well, according to Edwards, for them “the party is over” as is the Ice Age that defined markets according to the SocGen strategist. And as the coming “Great Melt” melts the ‘Ice’ in ‘Ice Age’, it will also “melt investor returns away too.”

The core pillar of Edwards’ latest note (available to pro subs in the usual place), are the recent events in the UK, where while world attention has been on passing of the late queen, financial market participants have been transfixed by the UK for a different reason: according to Edwards, “the new Conservative PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng have very publicly renounced the Davos-centric, ideological consensus that has dominated the G7 economics mainstream for so (too?) long. Such is the wish to shed this economic orthodoxy, the most senior civil servant at the UK Treasury was fired as soon as Kwasi Kwarteng stepped through the doors.”

To Edwards, the new UK Government’s “very visible shift in policy” is the natural manifestation of the economic earthquake which took place during and after the pandemic. As the SocGen strategist explains, “prior to the 2020 recession, he thought that once the longest cycle in US economic history ended (whenever that was), a policy Rubicon would be crossed because things would be so bad that all pretense at fiscal rectitude would just be thrown out of the window.” At that time, quiescent monetary authorities would shift from injecting newly printed money into the veins of Wall Street as they had done in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and instead inject the newly printed money directly into the veins of Main Street via fiscal largesse.

And, for all intents and purposes, Edwards was right as central banks were doing what the radicals of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) school of voodoo economics, led by Stephanie Kelton, had been advising governments to do for so long: expand the fiscal deficit and monetize it by growing the central bank balance sheet. It got so insane that Fed governors openly admitted they were effectively doing MMT.

But as Edwards notes, what should also have taken on board from that school of thought, was “the danger warning on the packet: that these policies should not be used with an economy at full capacity – which is exactly what the supply constraints brought about by the pandemic created.”

The resulting global inflation tsunami occurred long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threw petrol onto an already burning inflation fire.

In this context, fiscal austerity of the sort we saw between 2008-2020 was never coming back anyway, whether in the UK or any place else. By contrast, Edwards writes, “the post-GFC period saw the UK as one of the most fiscally austere of the G7 countries under Chancellors Osborne and Hammond. Back then, the priority for the UK, and all other G7 counties, was to regain control of fiscal deficits, which had ballooned out of control in the GFC.” Yes, the last traces of prudent fiscal policy…. and all it took was a fridge door not closing properly in Wuhan to throw it all away forever. 

We joke, but it was those “tight” fiscal policies around the world that benefited financial markets hugely because, as Edwards explains, “the resulting weak economic growth ‘necessitated’ (we were told) super-accommodative monetary policy, including QE – pure financial market catnip.”

Well, we are now at the other end of that spectrum, and according to the SocGen bear, the UK Government extremes of fiscal largesse will undoubtedly be countered by even more aggressive monetary tightening and QT, because of runaway inflation, rather than the monetary facilitation we saw in the pandemic.

Orthodox economists such as the leading Financial Times journalist Martin Wolf, are screaming that these policies court financial ruin. Certainly, the UK Government’s move to aggressively expand the fiscal deficit at a time of rapid inflation, tight labour markets and a central bank tightening monetary policy seems, how shall I put it… brave (a euphemism from the ‘Yes Minister’ BBC series).

But there again, as billions of ordinary people who never took part in the massive wealth accumulation by the top 0.1% will attest, “the last few decades of economic orthodoxy saw almost constant fiscal tightening, offset by G7 central banks hosing confetti money into financial markets.” This is seen by many, including Edwards and this website, as a failed policy – something we have criticized since 2009 when we first said that it was central bank policies that are the root of the global inequality epidemic and all the downstream resulting evil – causing as it has a huge gulf in terms of inequality, and also said by many to have exacerbated social division and popularism, among other things.

But As Edwards notes, investors shouldn’t care about such subjective analysis of what is the ‘right’ policy. they should leave that to others. All market strategists – and real traders – should be doing is predicting what will happen without judgment, and what the subsequent market consequences might be (and how to profit from all of it, of course).

The problem, however, is that there is very little money to be made in the next several years. According to Edwards, Downunder Daily author Gerard Minack, hit the nail on the head recently: he thinks the US is entering what he termed a “beta drought” where asset-class returns are negative or negligible for an extended period. “Prior droughts have been due to rising inflation and/or high market valuation. The US is now at risk from both.”

Minack continues:

“US investors have enjoyed munificent beta for a dozen years: a 60:40 equity/bond portfolio generated a 10½% annual average return between March 2009 and January 2022. But there have been four beta droughts since 1900: extended periods of little or no beta return. Three of the four historical beta droughts – in the 1910s, 1940s and 1970s – were caused by rising inflation, typically decade-average CPI inflation of over 5%. Those three inflation episodes were associated with WW1, WW2, and the 1970s oil shocks. The 2010s beta drought was due to excess equity valuation… (like we have seen recently too). The US may now be entering another beta drought. US returns are at now risk from both the prospect of higher inflation, AND the headwind to returns from high starting-point valuations.”

Not surprisingly, the rather (always) bearish Edwards thinks that Minack is right as the world is “likely set for a decade or more of poor financial returns exacerbated by the current ongoing economic ideological shift, which effectively means that interest rates and inflation will rise on a secular basis – i.e. The Great Melt.”

In conclusion, the SocGen strategist takes a quick stroll down memory lane, and writes that “one of the most amazing things working as an economist in the financial sector for 40 years is how policy dogma comes and goes”:

When I started out in finance in 1982, monetarism was in the ascendency and the single most important data item for the markets was the US weekly M2 data. But fashions come and fashions go and more recently central bankers such as Fed Chair Powell have explicitly dismissed money supply as not worthy of their attention. That was clearly a mistake (see WSJ article here). Yet leading monetarists are still considered to be dinosaurs by the economics establishment and generally an object of pity – but less so in the financial markets where investors still understand the power of liquidity.

Why does this matter? Because the UK is now paving the way for politicians in other G7 countries to stop even pretending they are subject to fiscal budget constraints. But to remind readers just how economics fashions come and go, take a look at this famous video clip of UK PM Jim Callaghan lecturing the 1976 Labour Party Conference.

In echoes of the current backdrop, after the oil price shock, the 1976 Government was trying to bring down inflation, the fiscal deficit was high, and the pound was plunging. PM Jim Callaghan told sullen-faced party delegates

, “We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step”.

As Edwards concludes, it is “funny how people forget the past”, and not just forget it but repeat the same mistakes over and over..

end.

PAUL ALEXANDER…

Until this COVID Pfizer & Moderna gene injection vaccine is stopped, then the pandemic will not end; never end & Francis Collins, Fauci, Bourla etc. know it; it is selecting for more lethal virulence

We warned them, Vanden Bossche did, Yeadon did, I did, McCullough did, we did, that non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies pressure the spike & drives infectious & more virulence; it is happening now!

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 23
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Be warned. This fraud failed ineffective and harmful gene injection must be stopped and never ever must you allow them to inject your child. Defend your child as the parent, grand-parent. Take them out of school, move if you have to. Protect them for Azar ensured they all had liability protection BUT your child. So now it is up to you parents!

VACCINE IMPACT/

Worse than Monkeypox? Multiple Cases of Skin Diseases Following COVID-19 Vaccination Start Appearing in the Medical Journals

September 22, 2022 6:24 pm

More and more COVID-19 vaccine injuries are starting to make their way into the medical journals. Several recent published case studies focus on skin diseases, and we are publishing a few of them here today as a service to the public, since the corporate media will seldom, if ever, cover this news. Since there is already a plan in place to promote a monkeypox outbreak as one of the next big “pandemics” (see: Plandemic II Launched to Keep Pandemic Funds Flowing to Big Pharma: MonkeyPox), it is important to document these existing skin diseases that are already occurring following the mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. It would not surprise me one bit if the criminal government “health” agencies such as the FDA and CDC started publishing photos like you see in these studies and label them all as some new variant of “monkeypox” which would cause fear and panic in the public, when in fact these skin conditions are more likely COVID-19 vaccine side effects.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

end 

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Russia’s Oil Exports Are Set To Plunge Next Year

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 09:25 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com (emphasis ours),

Nearly seven months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil exports have been quite resilient and just 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) below pre-war levels.  

But come December, Russian oil supply could plunge by more than one million bpd after the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force. In February, another one million bpd could then come offline due to the EU’s fuel embargo.

So far this year, Russia has managed to divert a lot of cargoes previously sent to Europe to buyers in Asia, predominantly China and India. As of December – and two months later when the EU oil product embargo kicks in – Russia will have to find a home for 2.4 million bpd of its oil if it is to keep its oil exports at current levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Report last week.

The global oil market will have to prepare itself for a loss of 2.4 million bpd supply when the EU embargo kicks in; an additional 1 million bpd of products and 1.4 million bpd of crude will have to find new homes. This could result in deeper declines in Russian oil exports and production, the IEA said. The Paris-based agency expects oil production in Russia to fall to 9.5 million bpd by February 2023, which would be a plunge of 1.9 million bpd compared to February 2022.

Around half of the Russian supply that will have to find new buyers could be diverted to Asia and the Middle East this winter, according to research by energy data firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg.

Some 1 million bpd of Russian oil could go to some Middle Eastern countries and Indonesia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in Asia, as well as Brazil and South Africa, according to Kpler’s estimates.

If this happens, there would be another major shift in global oil trade flows. Indonesia could replace some of the oil it’s currently importing from OPEC member Nigeria, while Pakistan could import lower volumes of Arab Light, the flagship crude grade of OPEC’s top producer and the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, the energy research firm says.

In the Middle East, “The temptation might be to feed Urals into the refineries and let the likes of Arab Light flow freely in Asia,” Kpler notes.

Currently, Europe imports over 1 million bpd of Russian crude, attempting to fill up before the EU-wide embargo on Russian oil imports by sea comes into effect.

Going forward, the EU and the G7 hope to keep Russian oil flows coming with a price cap that would allow maritime transportation services for Russia’s oil if that oil is sold at or below a certain price. 

While clever in theory, the price cap plan could lead to much higher oil prices because trade flows will be upended again, tankers are in short supply, and Russian oil exports—still remarkably resilient—would plunge, analysts say.

Yet, Putin can simply make good on his promise to halt all energy supply—including crude, fuels, natural gas, and coal—to the countries that sign up to cap the price of Russian oil. This would tighten the market and send oil prices surging.

“It’s unclear how and where the storm will land, “but it is looming,” Rystad Energy said in research last month.

EU imports of Russian crude are expected to dwindle to just 600,000 bpd by December 2022—a nearly 2.5 million bpd drop from the 3 million bpd before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy research firm said.

Yet, Rystad Energy expects that Russia will be able to redirect a significant portion of crude volume—or 75% in a base-case scenario—to Asia and other markets.

Regardless of how much crude and products Russia manages to place with non-EU buyers later this year, the next disruption of global oil flows is now looming.

* * *  

Continuing to expand on OilPrice’s note on the “looming” threat that global oil markets will get even tighter next year because plunging Russian oil output would only mean oil price pain worldwide will be prolonged

Last month we noted oil prices could be set for a comeback despite “bearish sentiment” amid recession threats as global central bankers aggressively tighten monetary policy to combat the highest inflation in decades. 

Goldman Sachs recently told clients its Brent price forecast for this quarter was revised to $110 a barrel, down from a previous projection of $140 per barrel, though the investment bank still believes the case for higher oil prices could materialize in 2023. 

Goldman also revised its fourth-quarter Brent price forecast to $125 a barrel from $130 per barrel. As for the 2023 projection, it left prices unchanged at $125 per barrel.

“We believe that the case for higher oil prices remains strong, even assuming all these negative shocks play out, with the market remaining in a larger deficit than we expected in recent months,” the analyst said.  

With that in mind, SPR releases are set to end this fall, and OPEC has struggled with spare capacity issues to bring on new production.

This could suggest crude may soon find a bottom. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka will get deeper in debt as they are considering buying from China and India  (solar panels). This country is hopelessly in debt up to their eyeballs

(EpochTimes)

Sri Lanka Mulls Taking On More Debt From China, India To Pay For Energy

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Sri Lanka is considering purchasing solar panels through a credit line from India and China to offset rising electricity tariffs, Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekara said on Tuesday.

The Sri Lankan government raised electricity tariffs by 75 percent in August, the first increase in nine years, triggering protest among local Buddhist clergy who were struggling to pay their electricity bills.

The Central Provincial Sangha of the Ramanya Nikaya said it would switch off the lights in all temples in the province on Poya Day—a Buddhist holiday—to protest against the increase in electricity costs, Daily Mirror reported.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Wijesekara proposed using renewable energy sources and installing solar panels for religious institutions, particularly those that pay higher electricity charges.

“We have the problem of foreign exchange, making it difficult to pay for imports. One solution we have to think is to have a credit line from India or China as panels are imported from them,” he said, according to the Press Trust of India.

The state-owned Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) is heavily in debt, owing more than 80 billion rupees ($225 million) in fuel costs and another 46 billion rupees ($129 million) to renewable energy suppliers.

Daily Power Cuts

Sri Lanka’s population of 22 million people has been struggling with hours-long daily power cuts due to the government’s acute lack of foreign currency to pay for essential imports.

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) reportedly scheduled an 80-minute power cut on Tuesday and Wednesday, citing inadequate power generation caused by a fuel shortage.

A few weeks earlier, PUCSL imposed power cuts on Aug. 27 and Aug. 28, and later extended to Aug. 29 for the same reason. Sri Lanka also imposed a nationwide 13-hour power cut in March, according to local reports.

CEB Engineers Union President Anil Ranjith said at a press conference on Sept. 15 that Sri Lanka’s ongoing power cuts could continue for at least three years if the government refused to increase the nation’s electricity supply.

“The demand peaks at night times. The power mainly comes from hydro, thermal and, if there is wind, then from wind power plants. If we don’t have coal or oil, then we have to go for power cuts,” he said, Economy Next reported.

“Until we increase our supply, through thermal, wind, [liquefied natural gas], coal or solar, and store our energy, the power cuts will continue,” Ranjith added.

IMF Agreement

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier approved a $2.9 billion bailout fund under a new 48-month Extended Fund Facility to help restore Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.

The IMF said that its deal with Sri Lanka is contingent on approval by IMF management and the executive board, as well as on financing assurances from Sri Lanka’s creditors, including China, Japan, and India.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe told reporters on Monday that Sri Lanka will hold talks with major creditors India, China, and Japan, as well as private creditors.

“While we look at our issues of debt, we also have to repay what we have borrowed. This means we need 25 years from now to 2048. Then we will be 100, by then will be a prosperous society,” Wickremesinghe said in his speech.

Sri Lanka defaulted its debt in May. The island nation has $10 billion in bilateral debt as of August, of which 44 percent is owed to China, according to the Finance Ministry (pdf). Japan holds 32 percent of Sri Lanka’s debt, while India holds another 10 percent.

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97448 DOWN   0.0094 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 142.83   UP  0.551 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1041 UP   0.02216

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.54 PTS OR 0.66%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN214.68PTS OR 1.18%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.92%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN214.68 PTS OR 1.18% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.54 PTS OR 0.66% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.92% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1647.60

silver:$19.09

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 112.00  UP 89  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.06% UP 16  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.230% DOWN 1  AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.18%// UP 7  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.34  UP 14   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.028% UP 5 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.97186 DOWN  .01200   or 120 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.182 UP 0.920 OR YEN DOWN 92 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.0917DOWN .0345 OR 345BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0097 OR  97BASIS pts  to 1.3569

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.1284 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1373

TURKISH LIRA:  18.41  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.230

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3  IN basis points from THURSDAY at  3.736% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.662  UP 3  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.46 UP 1.36 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 140.82 PTS OR  1.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 237.40 POINTS OR 1.89%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 132.79 PTS OR 2.24% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 185.20OR  2.38%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 720.35PTS OR  3.30%

WTI Oil price 79.09  12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.35   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  57.57  UP 1  AND 26/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.028

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9689 DOWN .01490     OR  149 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.0872 DOWN  .03911 or  391 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.29 DOWN 1.204//YEN DOWN 121 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3590 UP 0.01188  (CDN dollar, DOWN 119 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 78.88

Brent OIL:  86.33

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.41

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  57.92  UP 1 AND   92/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 486.27 PTS OR 1.62 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 190.40 PTS OR 1.46%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.67 DOWN 2.32 PTS (8.48)%

GLD: $153.01 DOWN 2.69 OR 1.73%

SLV/ $17.36 DOWN 0.73 CENTS OR 4.04%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crash

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 04:15 PM

No cute videos today, just one photo summarizes the absolute carnage today and this week.

A week that started off with a huge chip on its shoulder after last week’s dramatic post-CPI plunge, and which was the worst since June, only got worse, as stocks tumbled a jarring 5% this week, which together with last week’s 4.7% means that in just the past two weeks the S&P has lost 10% of its value!

And while the catalyst for the plunge is clear – and as highlighted on the chart below it was all about the unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the 2024 dot came in at 4.6%, hotter than even the biggest hawks had expected – the result was a non-stop liquidation scramble as Powell finally made it clear that he will keep hiking well into the recession and beyond.

To be sure, we’ve had powerful selloffs before in 2022, but today was the first time since June that the VIX finally spiked above 30. For it to achieve that when everyone in the institutional community is super-hedged with puts, is certainly remarkable.

Today’s selloff was so broad-based and uniform that not only was everything deep red…

… but TICK barely made it above 0.

While everything was red, not every sector was pummeled equally – energy stuck out like a sore thumb….

… and the XLE plunged by almost 7%, its second biggest drop since May 9, when oil unexpectedly crashed in what appeared like a government-mandated intervention.

Today’s plunge in energy was driven not only by the now-certainty of a looming recession – even as most energy stocks now trade as if oil was priced in the low $50 – but also by the sudden collapse in the price of oil, which saw WTI tumble below $80 for the first time since January, and on pace to lose all of 2022’s gains!

The plunge in oil was also a direct result of the now laughably exponential surge in the US dollar, where one look at the Bloomberg dollar index – where the USD is hitting new record highs every single day – shows all one needs to know.

It wasn’t just the Fed’s tightening plans that were behind the relentless surge in the dollar, which alone were enough to push the market’s pricing of the May Fed Funds rate to a whopping 4.7%…

… there was another key catalyst: today’s “mini budget” unveiled by the Liz Truss cabinet in the UK, which proposed the biggest tax cuts since the 1970s funded mostly with new debt sales, sent both gilts and the cable crashing…

… with the former tumbling to 1.0872, or levels not seen since February 1985. And with whispers of parity getting louder, it’s only a matter of time before we test new record lows for the british currency.

While it was sterling that stole the currency spotlight today, yesterday it was the yen’s turn, as the Japanese currency plunged after the BOJ affirmed it will keep buying billions in bonds for years to protect YCC, only to then turn around and intervene in the FX market for the first time since 1998, selling an unknown amount of dollars in the tens of billions for an intervention that has barely achieved anything at all!

Of course, the FX fireworks also meant lots of excitement in the US bond market, where the 10Y yield today briefly spiked to the highest level since April 2010, when it touched a high of 3.8248% before retracing most of the move.

And as the 10Y yield keeps rising, so does the real 10Y, which just hit 1.32%, well above the 2018 highs when the Fed was forced to pivot. And since the fwd P/E tracks the real rate, this suggests there is much more downside for stocks as the following chart shows.

Meanwhile, the 2Y remains sticky, and is now trading around 4.20%, which means that the 2s10s is now inverted some -52bps…

… and just shy of a new record inversion, one which screams not recession but full-blown depression.

And speaking of the coming depression, remember, the Fed won’t stop until it breaks something…

… and after this week there are so many more things that “something” can be: Japan, the UK (which may be locked out of the market sooner even than Italy), as well as things closer to home such as Junk bonds or even Investment Grade securities: don’t look now, but the LQD just took out its March 2020 covid crash lows when the Fed stepped in to bail out corporate debt by buying it directly…

… or maybe it will be a certain bank again that catalyzes the next crash…

… or just maybe the next mega-crash will be the 640 trillion yuan panda in the room.

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

ii) USA DATA/

iii) USA economic commentaries

Goldman’s Permabull just throws in the towel on the USA economy and slashes S and P to 3,600 and warns of a crash

(zerohedge)

Goldman Throws In The Towell: Slashes S&P Price Target To 3,600… Warns Of Recesion Crash To 3,150

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 06:40 AM

Less then a week after Goldman slashed its 2022 GDP forecast to stagnation (i.e. 0% growth) hinting that a recession was on deck…

…and just two days after we reported that Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin launched a trial balloon, telling clients that even as he still has a 4300 year-end price target on the S&P500, he saw the broad index tumbling as low as 2,900 in a recession, when we commented that “and there is your bogey: within 2-3 months, right after the BLS discovers the “mistakes” it had been making in its labor model and rectifies them sending the US in a brutal recession, expect Goldman to slash its optimistic 4,300 price target to one at or below 3,000 as a recession now becomes the bank’s base case scenario”, overnight Goldman did just that, and while it has yet to cut to 3,000 – after all a recession is still not the bank’s base case, but it will be in a few weeks – David Kostin, who has been dead wrong about pretty much everything over the past year (his initial 2022 year-end forecast was 5,100 set last November) just slashed his year-end S&P target from 4,300 to a whopping 3,600, which is not just almost 20% lower but is below the market’s current price!

And while there is a lot of detail in the full pdf (available to pro subs in the usual place), detail which clearly wasn’t relevant as recently as yesterday when stocks were plunging and Goldman still was forecasting a bounce to 4300, the bottom line according to Kostin is that it’s all the surging interest rates’ fault and more specifically, real yields, to wit: “the expected path of interest rates is now higher than we previously assumed, which tilts the distribution of equity market outcomes below our prior forecast.” Here, laughably Kostin pretends he was actually right all along, saying that “the S&P 500 index actually reached our previous year-end target of 4300 in mid-August”, even though rather sadly Kostin never told clients to sell there.

In any case, since the rate complex subsequently shifted dramatically, the Goldman strategist now says that “the higher interest rate scenario that we now incorporate into our valuation model supports a P/E of 15x (vs. prior forecast of 18x) and implies a year-end (3-month) S&P 500 target of 3600 (-5%) and 6-month and 12-month forecasts of 3600 (-5%) and 4000 (+6%).

Some more details from the Goldman report:

Equity valuations have closely tracked real interest rates until recently. Real yields have soared from 0.4% to 1.3% during the past month and could reach 1.5% by year-end. For context, real yields were negative 1% at the start of the year when the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high of 4800 and traded at a P/E of 21x. The tightest yield gap between equities and rates since the pandemic further tilts the balance of risks to the downside.

Indicatively, this is a chart we have shown frequently in recent weeks, and here is the latest incarnation. Needless to say, it suggests much more pain in store:

Anyway, back to the Goldman report which looking ahead, says that “the outlook is unusually murky” and that most of the bank’s clients expect a hard-landing:

The forward paths of inflation, economic growth, interest rates, earnings, and valuations are all in flux more than usual with a wider distribution of potential outcomes. Based on our client discussions, a majority of equity investors have adopted the view that a hard landing scenario is inevitable and their focus is on the timing, magnitude, and duration of a potential recession and investment strategies for that outlook.

Finally, and as we warned earlier this week, Goldman once again very strongly hints that in a recession scenario – which is now inevitable and just a matter of Goldman flipping a switch once it gets the green light from the corner office – the S&P would tumble as low as 3,150:

We previously published that in a recession falling S&P 500 EPS could cause the index to decline to 3150 (-17%). A 11% drop in EPS would be consistent with modestly negative real GDP growth and the 13% median EPS drop during prior recessions. Under a “hard landing” scenario, the yield gap would rise and the 3-, 6-, and 12-month S&P 500 targets would be 3400 (-10%) / 3150 (-17%) / 3750 (-1%).

Some more details on this “hard landing” scenario:

In a recession, we forecast earnings will fall and the yield gap will widen, pushing the index to a trough of 3150. Our economists assign a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months and note that any recession would likely be mild given the lack of major financial imbalances in the economy. As we previously outlined, in the event of a moderate recession, our top-down model indicates EPS would fall by 11% to $200. However, prices move faster than analyst estimates, so we assume the market prices earnings of $220, halfway between consensus today and our recession earnings. Our 2024 EPS estimate assumes a 15% recovery in EPS to $230 which is similar to prior post-recession profit rebounds. From a valuation perspective, we assume real rates would fall to 0% as the Fed moves to cut rates and our yield gap model suggests a widening to 700 bp. The implied forward P/E multiple of the index would equal 14x.

For context, a 34% peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 index during a recession would only be slightly worse than the historical average of 30%. We see two risks that would create a more dramatic sell-off in equities during a recession. First, if inflation concerns were to limit the degree of monetary or fiscal policy support and interest rates did not fall, it could lead to even lower valuations or even larger economic and earnings growth declines than we model. Second, concentrated sector weakness, such as Information Technology in 2001 and Financials in 2008, could lead to an even sharper earnings and price decline.

Actually, Kostin may not know, but one of his global equity strategist colleagues, Dominic Wilson has an even lower S&P target of as low as 2,900 in a global recession scenario, one is now inevitable, but as we said before, Goldman will wait the requisite 2 months until after the midterms before it tells the truth about what is coming.

Here is the full breakdown of Goldman’s soft and hard-landing scenarios…

… as well as the visual breakdown of how the S&P’s “path” over the next year looks like according to Goldman:

One final point: looking ahead, Kostin finally fully agrees with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson – who long ago predicted the collapse in P/E multiples and has been focusing instead on the plunge in earnings – and writes that “in the near term, investor focus will soon turn from valuation to earnings. The surprisingly high August inflation reading was a pivotal event for macro investors regarding the path of Fed hikes. The analogue for stock investors is 3Q earnings season where record high profit margins will be under scrutiny.”

Couple final observations: while it will come as news to many that Goldman has flip-flopped from one of the most bullish to one of most bearish banks on Wall Street, those who had been reading the notes and comments that we publish from the bank’s Sales and Trading and flow desk, knew long ago that this bearish pivot was coming and none of this should come as a surprise. Perhaps more importantly, now that even Goldman has turned bull bear, the bottom may finally be in sight, because if Goldman’s base case is to urge all, not just a handful of its best clients, to sell, then the bank’s traders are officially buying everything that is thrown their way…

More in the full report available to pro subs.

end

Another important read;  The Fed is beginning to see the magnitude of the mess they created

(Mises/McMaken)

The Fed Is Finally Seeing The Magnitude Of The Mess It Created

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

When asked about price inflation in his Sunday interview with 60 Minutes, President Biden claimed that inflation “was up just an inch…hardly at all.” Biden continued the dishonest tactic of focuses on month-to-month price inflation growth as a means of obscuring the 40-year highs in year-over-year inflation. This strategy may yet work to placate the most ignorant voters, but people who are paying attention know that price inflation continues to soar.

Thus, while Biden may be pretending that it’s all no big deal, the Federal Reserve knows it better do something about price inflation which even the Fed now admits shows no signs of even moderating. 

Another 75 Basis Points

On Wednesday, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee announced that it will again raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points. According to the FOMC’s press release

Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. …

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

This is, by far, the most hawkish announcement yet out of the Powell Fed and no doubt reflects the fact the Fed has finally come to terms with the fact that inflation is not transitory—as the Fed long insisted—and is now impossible to deny. Last month, CPI inflation rose 8.2 percent, year over year, marking six months of year-over-year price inflation rates over 8 percent and near 40-year highs. 

Moreover, in its summary of economic projections, many FOMC committee members said they expected the target policy rate to reach or exceed 4.25 percent this year, and exceed 4.5 percent in 2023.  Projections of economic conditions, however, continued to be relatively rosy with the report suggesting that GDP growth will stay above zero for the foreseeable future while unemployment maxes out at only 5 percent. 

In spite of two quarters in a row of shrinking GDP over the past year, and in spite of many indicators of brewing recession—such as falling home prices and an inverting yield curve—the committee is still clinging to the idea that the Fed can steer a “soft landing” in which inflation will be reined in with no more than some moderate slowing in economic growth. 

Although the recent hikes in the target fed funds rate suggest an increasingly hawkish position, the Fed nonetheless continues to take only the most tepid steps when it comes to reducing the size of the Fed’s portfolio. Such a move would directly reduce the money supply by reversing QE, and it would also reduce asset prices by producing a small deluge of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities flowing back into the market. 

While the Fed is allowing some government bonds to continue to roll off the portfolio, we shouldn’t expect any drastic moves here. It’s been nearly four months since the Fed announced plans to reduce the portfolio, yet the actual reduction continues to be miniscule. Moreover, in Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, when asked about selling off the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities, Powell responded “It’s something I think we will turn to, but that time — the time for turning to it has not come … It’s not close.” 

Even now, after immense and rapid price inflation over the past two years, the Fed is still too afraid of fragility in the housing market to put much of its $2 trillion MBS portfolio back into the private sector. 

This sends a mixed message as to how much the Fed is really committed to reducing price inflation, but it’s clear Powell was trying to project a hawkish tone on Wednesday overall. 

Powell spoke of “significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet” and also emphasized that ending the current bout of inflation will require pain in the form of job losses. He also emphasized that there is no short-term solution, strongly implying that the current effort to end inflation could possibly take years. 

Powell expressed fears that price inflation will become much harder to address once the population comes to expect inflation as routine. He also noted that price inflation in housing “is going to remain high for some time.” Powell then reiterated that there is no way to “wish away” inflation, but that the only way he sees the Fed can do something about inflation is by “slow[ing] the economy.”  (See 1:35:00 here.) 

The question remains, however, as to whether or not the Fed and the federal government can politically tolerate a sizable period of rising interest rates and a decline in the monetary growth rate. 

A decline in the monetary growth rate is trouble because it points to recession. Our bubble economy is now so addicted to easy money, that even a slowing in monetary expansion can send the economy’s many zombie companies into a tailspin. Rising rates are a problem because they can lead to sizable increase in the federal government’s debt-service payments. This could lead to a fiscal crisis without cuts to popular government spending programs. Virtually no one in Washington wants that. 

Some key warning signs are already flashing “recession,” such as the inverting yield curve. For example, the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield has been negative since July, and at the most negative level since the early 1980s.

This will amount to immense pressure on the Fed—from wealthy Wall Streeters, elected officials, and corners of the economic Left—to return to quantitative easing. 

Expect more attacks on the Fed’s tightening policy, but most of these attacks get things backward when it comes to understanding the problem with Fed policy. As even Fed economists are now beginning to understand, the Fed must tighten now or risk truly galloping inflation in the near future. Many casual observers will then view this tightening as the “cause” of the economic pain that will follow. 

Yet, the Fed’s real incompetence is already behind us. That came over the past decade when the Fed absolutely refused to end its quantitative easing efforts even as the economy was clearly in an accelerating expansion. This was especially obvious after 2017, and yet Powell stuck with the usual monetary inflation, because that was the popular thing to do. Then, when the covid crisis, came, all restraints on monetary inflation were completely abandoned. 

Now, thanks to Powell’s mistakes, price inflation is supercharged, and even he admits it could take years of economic stagnation or decline to bring it under control. The sheer level of ineptitude would be shocking if it were not so common for central bankers. For those people, their entire “strategy” can be summed up—as Peter St. Onge puts it—”Hike til it breaks, cut til it inflates.” There’s not much more to it than that. That’s the best all those PhD’s at the Fed have managed to come up with. Thanks to Powell and Yellen and Benernake and Greenspan, we’ve living with the consequences of the Greenspan Put, followed by a decade of QE, followed by the “panic and print money” mania of the past two years. It’s great that Powell is finally figuring out what the real world looks like. Unfortunately he’s years behind.

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS

The global food supply crises may worsen due to poor uSA harvest

(Jung/EpochTimes)

Global Food Supply Crises May Worsen Due To Poor US Harvest

FRIDAY, SEP 23, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

U.S. agriculture has been facing a poor harvest this year, aggravating the global food supply crisis, industry executives have said.

The supply of food worldwide has been tight, since Russia’s war in Ukraine cut off vital shipments of resources needed to make fertilizer and grain products from the region.

Several high-level executives from big agricultural firms such as Bayer, Corteva, Archer Daniels Midland, and Bunge, told The Wall Street Journal that it will take at least two more years of good harvests in North and South America to ease the supply pressures.

“The current market expectation is that global grain and oilseeds markets need two consecutive normal crop years to stabilize global supplies,” said Chuck Magro, chief executive of Corteva, at an investor presentation this week.

This year’s grain harvest has fallen below normal yields in the West, hindering efforts to restock global crop supplies he explained.

The United States and South America, two of the world’s major crop exporters,  faced persistent drought conditions this summer.

The hot summer worsened drought conditions in states throughout the U.S. Grain Belt, which saw a major reduction in the harvest due to lack of water and a wet spring planting season earlier in the year.

The Agriculture Department announced on Sept. 12, that it had lowered its nationwide corn production estimates to 13.9 billion bushels.

This is 3 percent lower than its projections in August, about 8 percent lower than the total amount harvested last year.

Projections for soybean production estimates in September were down 3 percent from August, down slightly from 2021.

Maintaining a Food Truce

Global recession fears have also weighed on food commodity markets and the prolonged conflict in Ukraine has not helped matters.

Wheat price futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have risen 17 percent over the past 12 months, according to the WSJ.

Corn is up by about 28 percent, while soybeans jumped 14 percent.

Food prices skyrocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.

Crop prices began to ease after a July agreement between Russia and Ukraine—brokered by Turkey through the United Nations—allowed more than a million tons of grain stored in Ukraine to be exported via the Black Sea.

Around 15 percent of grain stocks in Ukraine have been lost since the invasion in February, according to the Ukraine Conflict Observatory, a U.S.-based NGO.

Ukraine was only able to export about 40 percent of the grain it normally shipped during that period before the Black Sea agreement, according to Juan Luciano, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland, at a September investor conference.

A combine harvests wheat in a field near the village of Zghurivka, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine on Aug. 9, 2022. (Viacheslav Musiienko/Reuters)

Luciano said the deal has allowed the country to boost shipments to about 60 percent of previous capacity and that it could be boosted to 80 or 90 percent if the agreement holds.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, said earlier this month, that his country may pull out of the deal, accusing the West of diverting Ukrainian grain to their own countries instead of allowing it to arrive in countries in the developing world that needed it most.

Putin’s statement led to the latest jump in wheat prices, which had been declining since the deal.

Western leaders immediately accused the Kremlin of spreading misinformation about the destination of Ukrainian grain that was to be shipped out of the Black Sea

“Contrary to Russian disinformation, this food is getting to Africa, the Middle East and Asia,” said European Commission President Charles Michel at a U.N. conference.

Russian officials said that items in the agreement that allowed their country to sell its fertilizer and other agricultural products amid sanctions were being violated.

Experts are warning that disruptions in fertilizer shipments due to the war are seriously affecting harvests around the world.

Agriculture executives have strongly urged that the deal be renewed by late November when it expires, to avoid pressure on global food stockpiles.

Global Food Crisis

The U.N.’s Global Food Security Summit on rising food insecurity on Sept. 20, warned of a devastating crisis next year if the war continues.

Representatives from the United States joined officials from the European Union and the African Union to discuss the effect of the conflict in Ukraine on food prices.

“As we’ve seen over the last years as a result of Covid, before that climate change and, more recently, conflict—notably Russia’s aggression against Ukraine—profound food insecurity touches well over 200 million people on this planet, including, of course, in Yemen,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who urged renewal of the Black Sea agreement.

The executive director of the U.N. World Food Program, David Beasley, told the U.N. Security Council last week, that the world is now facing “a global emergency of unprecedented magnitude,” with a real risk of “multiple famines” this year.

He said that 345 million people are facing starvation, with 70 million directly affected by food shipments disrupted by the war in Ukraine.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently said that while enough food is being produced worldwide, the main problem was distribution.

This summer, UNICEF and the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said that between 702 and 828 million people were impacted by hunger last year, due to disruptions caused by the pandemic.

Guterres stated that if the current situation in Ukraine does not stabilize in 2022, “we risk to have a real lack of food” by 2023.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Pennsylvania County Sues Dominion Voting Systems Over ‘Severe Anomalies’ In 2020 Election

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Officials in Fulton County, Pennsylvania have sued Dominion Voting Systems, alleging “severe” issues with voting data discovered after the 2020 US election, Just the News reports.

The lawsuit, filed Tuesday, claims that county officials “became aware of severe anomalies in the Dominion Voting Systems due to the inaccuracy and/or inability to reconcile voter data with votes actually cast and counted” by the company’s proprietary system at or about the time of the 2020 election.

Officials cite a report from earlier this month which revealed that “security measures necessary to harden and secure” Dominion’s systems had not been performed, and that “external USB hard drives had been inserted in the machines on several occasions” when there was “no known list of approved external drives that could have been or were used or inserted into the machines.”

The county allegedly discovered that a “python script” had been installed on one device, which was “connected to an external device on an external network” reportedly located in Canada.

The script “can exploit and create any number of vulnerabilities including, external access to the system, data export of the tabulations, or introduction of other metrics not part of or allowed by the certification process.”

Officials also claim that the machines were running a July, 2016 version of Windows Defender, which would have left the machine vulnerable to “viruses or malicious software” created after that date.

The suit alleges “breach of contract and breach of warranty, and breach of other common-law and statutory duties, by Dominion,” which the county says entitles it to “all fees, expenditures and costs made in reliance upon and in consideration for the provision by Dominion of a serviceable product that was fit for its intended purpose and use.”

end

KING REPORT

The King Report September 23, 2022 Issue 6850Independent View of the News
 Japan intervenes in FX market to stem yen falls after BOJ keeps super-low ratesBOJ keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidanceJapan’s FX diplomat said took ‘decisive’ actionConfirmation of intervention sends dollar sliding over 2%Analysts doubt whether Tokyo can keep propping up yenThe move sent the dollar plunging over 2% to around 140.3 yen, after trading more than 1% higher earlier on the BOJ’s decision to stick to its super-loose policy stance, bucking a global tide of monetary tightening by central banks fighting soaring inflation…The dollar/yen later pared losses and was down about 1% at 142.76 as of 1043 GMT… “The first Japanese currency intervention in near a quarter century is a significantbut ultimately doomed step to defend the yen,” said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at Etoro in London…  https://t.co/hsd2o5BcBk
 
Central Bank Thursday ResultsThe Bank of England increased its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 2.25%, in a 5-4 decision. Three officials wanted 75 bps, and one wanted 25 bps.The BOE confirmed that it will do QT by reducing its £850B of bonds to ~£758B in 1st year.The Swiss National Bank ended its NRIP by hiking its benchmark rate 75 bps to zero.Norges Bank (Norway) raised its benchmark rate 50 bps to 2.25%. 
BOE Raises Rates by a Half-Point as Push Begins for Bigger Moves
BOE policy makers also unanimously endorsed plans to start reducing the mammoth government bond holdings built up since the financial crisis over a decade ago. Active sales, the first carried out by a major central bank, will start on Oct. 3, and be in the region of £10 billion a quarter. Adding the impact of expiring gilts, it expects its total stock, which still amount to almost £850 billion, to decline to around £758 billion in the first year…
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/boe-raises-rates-by-a-half-point-as-push-begins-for-bigger-moves/47921400
 
The big story on Thursday was the destruction in bonds.  USZs tumbled as much as 2 19/32.  The US 10-year hit 3.7%; the 2-year traded at 4.15%.
 
ESZs hit a low of 3765.75 at 21:12 ET.  They rallied moderately during the remainder of Asian trading.  After a dip into the European open, ESZs and stocks soared after the BoJ intervened in the yen.  ESZs hit a daily high of 3833.00 at 4:44 ET.  After declining to 3791.50 at 7:28 ET, the rally for the NYSE open appeared.  ESZs rallied to 3820.25 at 8:53 ET.  But the yen weakened after the intervention, so ESZs slid to a daily low of 3763.75 at 11:22 ET.
 
After the obligatory Noon Balloon, ESZs and stocks traded sideways, in a wide range until the final-hour upward manipulation appeared.  The rally peaked at 15:47 ET; ESZs tumbled 37 handles by the close.
 
US August LEI -0.3%, 6th consecutive decline, -0.1% expected; July revised to -0.5% from -0.4%.
 
Tesla recalls nearly 1.1 million US vehicles to update window reversing software https://t.co/dQDyTcFMj0
 
Positive aspects of previous session
US afternoon equity rally, a staple after an early US decline on negative international news
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds got hammered; USZs closed -2 13/32
For the 1st time in 24 years, Japan intervened in the yen – with modest success
The DJTA sank 2.33% and fell below its June low
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will Fed officials walk back Powell’s dovish MBC QT remark?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3766.11
Previous session High/Low3790.90; 3749.45
 
@Rover829: Bloomberg: South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol was overheard insulting American lawmakers as “idiots,” after briefly meeting Biden to discuss issues including US electric-vehicle subsidies that South Korea wants to change.  Bloomberg: “What an embarrassment for Biden, if these idiots refuse to grant it in Congress,” video broadcast on South Korean television showed Yoon telling Foreign Minster Park Jin in New York.  The comments were caught on a microphone as Yoon and Park were leaving a brief chat with Biden at a Global Fund event.
 
@RNCResearch: WATCH: Reporters try to ask Joe Biden a few questions. Biden just stares blankly ahead.   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1572974350638190595
 
WSJ: FedEx to Raise Shipping Rates by 6.9% as It Combats Slowdown
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-fdx-q1-earnings-report-2023-11663789784?st=trd46kxjmhmvysd
 
Fed Balance Sheet: -$15.957B; US Treasuries -$13.112B
 
Bonds soared on Wednesday due to recession angst; they tumbled on Thursday.  No, recession angst did not just disappear or dissipate.  The likely reason for the bond tumble is that cost to carry for traders is now projected to go up much higher than big brokers, hedge funds, and traders modeled.  This means levered positions, and the Street employs enormous leverage in their debt book, are under pressure.
 
Today – Part of the Thursday’s afternoon rally was traders getting long for the expected Friday rally and Powell’s remarks at 14:00 ET.  The fact that ESZs and stocks tumbled with 13 minutes remaining in the NYSE session evinces the notion that the rally was largely traders and there are few organic buyers.
 
Equity rallies can appear at any moment; but the trend is clearly down.  The next window for a rally will appear on Thursday when Q3 performance gaming should commence.
 
ESZs are +6.50 and USZs are -1/32 a 20:10 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Sept S&P Global US Mfg PMI 51, Services PMI 45.5, Composite PMI 46.1; Powell gives opening remarks at Fed Listens Event 14:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4040; 100-day MA: 3995; 150-day MA: 4124; 200-day MA: 4244
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,184; 100-day MA: 31,983 150-day MA: 33,690; 200-day MA: 33,402
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4765.16 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4273.61 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3873.61 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3844. 15 triggers a buy signal
 
Michigan Attorney General Calls for ‘Drag Queen in Every School’ (Cult of depraved ideals?)
“I say this: a drag queen for every school! That — that is what would be fun for kids… You know what’s not a problem for kids who are seeking a good education? Drag queens. Okay? Let me say this, drag queens, not only are drag queens not hurting our kids, drag queens make everything better.”…
https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/09/22/watch-michigan-attorney-general-calls-drag-queen-every-school/
 
Biden calls on Americans to ‘fight back against extreme MAGA Republicans’ just days after killing of MAGA teen – In a video posted to Twitter, President Biden said “extreme MAGA Republicans” are to blame for the nation’s woes. This just days after 41-year-old Shannon Brandt ran over 18-year-old Cayler Ellingson with his car claiming he was a “Republican extremist.” https://thepostmillennial.com/biden-calls-on-americans-to-fight-back-against-extreme-maga-republicans-just-days-after-killing-of-maga-teen
 
The left condemns hate speech while ignoring fallout from Biden branding Trumpers fascist: Victor Davis Hanson – In one case, Shannon Brandt allegedly killed a ‘Republican’ teenager in North Dakota
Watters said he hopes there are at least a few journalists left in the White House press corps who might ask the Biden administration — in light of officials’ charged rhetoric and the like — about Brandt’s alleged vehicular attack on the Republican teenager.   https://t.co/DLwx3Ebbzp
 
FBI hero paying the price for exposing unjust ‘persecution’ of conservative Americans
Bombshell allegations by FBI Special Agent Steve Friend contained in a whistleblower complaint filed late Wednesday with the Department of Justice inspector general reveal a politicized Washington, DC, FBI field office cooking the books to exaggerate the threat of domestic terrorism, and ­using an “overzealous” January 6 ­investigation to harass conservative Americans and violate their constitutional rights.  Friend, 37, a respected 12-year veteran of the FBI and a SWAT team member, was suspended Monday, stripped of his gun and badge, and escorted out of the FBI field office in Daytona Beach, Fla…
    Among Friend’s allegations: The Washington, DC, field office is “manipulating” FBI case management protocol and farming out J6 cases to field offices across the country to create the false impression that right-wing domestic violence is a widespread national problem…
     FBI domestic terrorism cases are being opened on innocent American citizens who were nowhere near the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, based on anonymous tips to an FBI hotline or from Facebook spying on their messages. These tips are turned into investigative tools called “guardians,” after the FBI software that collates them.
     The FBI has post-facto designated a grassy area outside the Capitol as a restricted zone, when it was not restricted on Jan. 6, 2021, in order to widen the net of prosecutions.
     The FBI intends to prosecute everyone even peripherally associated with J6 and another wave of J6 subjects are about to be referred to the FBI’s Daytona Beach resident agency “for investigation and arrest.”
     The Jacksonville area was “inundated” with “guardian” notifications and FBI agents were dispatched to conduct surveillance and knock on people’s doors, including people who had not been in Washington, DC, on Jan. 6, 2021, or who had been to the Trump rally that day but did not go ­inside the Capitol…
    Friend says he was punished after complaining to his bosses about being dragged into J6 investigations that were “violating citizens’ Sixth Amendment rights due to overzealous charging by the DOJ and biased jury pools in Washington, DC.”…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/21/fbi-hero-paying-the-price-for-exposing-unjust-persecution-of-conservative-americans/
 
Flip-flop: Heading into midterms, Dem candidates scramble to walk back far-left positions
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/flip-flop-heading-midterms-dem-candidates-walk-back-far-left-positions
 
Pro-choice activists are upset with CBS News and other media outlets that ran the following story.
 
@CBSNews: Fetuses are big fans of carrots but not leafy green vegetables – and you can tell by the look on their faces… Researchers at Durham University in northeast England said the findings were the first direct evidence that babies react differently to various smells and tastes before they are born
https://t.co/CrhlrvySm7
 
@TODAYshow: These images from researchers show that babies in the womb can possibly react to flavor.  https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1572935961482522626
 
NBC’s ‘Today’ stuns, delights pro-lifers with segment referring to ‘babies in the womb’ https://t.co/k3GrQ0c6Io
 
@RNCResearch: Georgia Democrat (Gov candidate, and liberal icon) Stacey Abrams: “There is no such thing as a heartbeat at six weeks. It is a manufactured sound designed to convince people that men have the right to take control of a woman’s body.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1572742298168958977
 
Stacey Abrams faces backlash for claiming 6-week fetal heartbeat is ‘manufactured sound’ https://t.co/GyeenPwL9B
 
Due to liberal privilege, Abrams won’t be canceled, harassed, or banned on social media for being a science denier and conspiratorialist.
 
Stacey Abrams promotes conspiracy theory that fetal heartbeats are ‘manufactured’ to control women   https://t.co/1FpdVLBPib
 
Pennsylvania county sues Dominion Voting Systems over alleged ‘severe anomalies’ in 2020 voter data – claims “inaccuracy and/or inability to reconcile voter data with votes actually cast and counted.”   https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/fulton-county-pa-sues-dominion-voting-systems-over-alleged-severe-anomalies
 
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declares Mexican drug cartels terrorists, calls on Biden to do the same
In one year’s time, fentanyl killed nearly 20 times more people than those killed in terrorist attacks over decades…  https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/abbott-declares-mexican-drug-cartels-terrorists-calls-biden-do-same
 
@emeriticus: Jared Kushner and his allies ruined the America First agenda while privately thumbing their noses at Trump’s base. These people formed the America First Policy Institute and are waiting to rejoin the White House for a second term. I spoke with an insiderhttps://t.co/6iGyqt1Ouk
 
Jared Kushner slams Ron DeSantis: “We have to remember that these are human beings, they’re people, so seeing them being used as political pawns is very troubling to me.” https://t.co/sLaeJM6xvl
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1572960861064679424
 
Volcano Blast in Tonga Was Unusual and Could Even Warm the Earth, Scientists Say
They estimated the eruption to be even bigger, adding around 150 million metric tons of water vapor to the stratosphere — three times as much as Voemel’s study found…  https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/volcano-blast-in-tonga-was-unusual-and-could-even-warm-the-earth-scientists-say/3078743/
 
@JohnBasham: A single volcano blast in Jan did more to warm the Earth in 1 day than human actions over the last 50 years!

END

Greg Hunter

Russia May Nuke, Dems Will Cheat, Economy Already Tanking

By Greg Hunter On September 23, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups20 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 548 9.23.22)

Putin is making some serious moves to put Russia on a war footing in what is being called a “partial mobilization of national forces.”  Some reports say they are calling up 1 million people for a possible future war effort.  Maybe this is why many military aged Russians are trying to escape the country.  Meanwhile, a top Russian Security Council member is hinting that nuclear warfare is an option to defend recently annexed parts of Ukraine.  There are zero peace talks, and the only thing you are seeing is more money for war from the west.  It is now only a matter of when, not if, there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO.   Lord, please help us.

A Bill passed in the House of Representatives that will make it easier for Dems to win another presidential race by limiting grounds for electors to object.  The Bill also opens up the possibility of voting after Election Day.  Of course, post-Election Day voting can only happen if there is some sort of “catastrophe.”  So, I guess we can expect a “catastrophe” every presidential election from now on.  The Dems continue to look for other ways to cheat and intimidate voters who don’t vote for them.  There are some bright spots for voter integrity that are continuing.  There are also more and more top Democrats telling Democrat voters to vote for a Republican.  One example is Dems are rallying around Republican candidate for Governor Lee Zeldin from New York.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see the economy tanking before our eyes.  Housing data is trending down, and inflation is trending up.  According to Nerd Wallet, it now costs the average family an extra $11,500 to live this year over last year.  Meanwhile, the Fed just raised rates again, and it is on track to raise them again and again and again to fight inflation, or is the Fed crashing the economy?  Maybe it’s both.  I think the Fed is really just supporting the U.S. dollar and the hell with everything else.  If the dollar crashes and loses reserve currency status, it’s game over.  Buckle up.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.23.22.

After the Wrap-Up:

Renowned geopolitical and economic cycle expert Martin Armstrong will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  It will be an important update on war and the economy.

See you on MONDAY

HARVEY

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