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EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,660.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/28/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/30/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

132 C SG AMERICAS 12
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 10
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 234
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 151
880 H CITIGROUP 95
905 C ADM 8

TOTAL: 256 256
MONTH TO DATE: 12,269

JPMORGAN STOPPED

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:

256 NOTICES FOR 25600 OZ //0.7962 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,269 contracts for 1,226,900 oz (38.162 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 21 NOTICES FILED FOR 105,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 6805 : for 34,025,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $.85

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A DEPOSIT OF 3.30

TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.86 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.645 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 479.904 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 709 CONTRACTS TO 129,709 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.32 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.32) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF1538 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS WITH THE BANKERS CONTINUALLY ON THE BUY SIDE.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) CONTINUAL SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –59

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 days, total 14,630 contracts: 73.150 million oz OR 3.670 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (732 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 73.150 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 73.150 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 709 WITH OUR $0.32 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 770 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// NET SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1479 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 7.395MILLION OZ..

WE HAD 21 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 105,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

WE HAVE 1 MORE READING DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 175 CONTRACTS TO 457,236 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED — -402 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.30//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE HAD SMALL SPREADER LIQUIDATION// SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1000 OZ //NEW STANDING 38.158 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4967 OI CONTRACTS 15.483 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4803 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,236

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4978 CONTRACTS WITH 175 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4803 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI gain ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4978 CONTRACTS OR 15.483 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4803) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (175): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 4978 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SMALL ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1000 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/5/SMALL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

62,102 CONTRACTS OR 6,210,200 OZ OR 193,16 TONNES 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3105 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 193.16 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 193.16/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.43% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES (SLIGHTLY RISING THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 709 CONTRACT OI TO 129,709 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 770 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 770 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 770 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 709 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 770 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 15479 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.395 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.32

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.13% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 85.01 PTS OR 0.48% /The Nikkei closed UP 248.07PTS OR 0.95% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1252//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.1199// /Oil UP TO 82.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 89.44 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 175 CONTRACTS TO 457,236 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF $32.30 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4803 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4803 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :4803 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4803 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 4978 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4803 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 175 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR VERY STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $32.30. WE HAD SMALL SPREADER LIQUIDATION//WE HAD SPEC SHORT DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER BUT WITH BANKERS TAKING THE BUY SIDE, IT IS BECOMING DIFFICULT FOR OUR SHORTERS. THUS, WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS GOING MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE HUGELY LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS ONCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN TO ANNIHILATE THE SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (38.158),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $32.30) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4978 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER FROM THEIR SHORT POSITIONS WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS AS THE PRICE SKYROCKETED//WE HAD CONTINUING OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN OF 4978 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (38.158 TONNES)…

WE HAD -402 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4978 CONTRACTS OR 497,800 OZ OR 15.483 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 202,082/// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday 307,702/ fair

FINAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 29

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	23,245.180 oz BRINKS
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	256 notice(s) 25,600 OZ 0.7962 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	0 contracts 00oz 0.00 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,269 notices 1,226,900OZ 38.162 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks 23,245.180 oz

total: 23,245.180 oz

total in tonnes: 0.7230 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

JPM: dealer to customer; 30,479.124 0z

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 256 contracts having LOST 856 contracts .

We had 866 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we gained 10 contracts or an additional 1000 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September. This queue jump is actually the Londoners exercising efp’s and tendering them to the banks

for the physical!

October LOST a large 8582 contracts LOWERING TO 22,876. Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. We will probably have around 55 to 60 tonnes of gold initially stand for delivery but that will grow as the month of October comes to an end.

WE HAVE 1 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE ( FRIDAY SEPT 30.2022)

November GAINED 520 contracts to stand at 1448

December GAINED a huge 8183 contracts UP to 385,802

We had 256 notice(s) filed today for 25600 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 256 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 151 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,269) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 256 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 256 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,226,800 OZ OR 38.158 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (12,269) x 100 oz+ (256) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (256} x 100 oz} which equals 1,226,800 oz standing OR 38.158 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 38.158 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,218,731.290 oz 69.01 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 26,501,205.703 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,090,844.141 OZ (407.18 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,410,361,542 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,872,113 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 338.16 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 29//FINAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	524,610 oz CNT JPM
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1994.100 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	21 CONTRACT(S) 105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	00 contracts (NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6805 contracts 34,025,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 1994.100 oz

Total deposits: 199.100 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 162.946 million oz/313.609million =51.97% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 2

i)Out of CNT 2,078.100 oz

ii)Out of JPMorgan: 522,877.510

total withdrawals: 524,610.62 oz

adjustments: // 2

DEALER TO CUSTOMER:

i)HSBC 30,468.980 oz

ii) Delaware 10,329.47 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.645 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 313.609 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 21 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST409 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

43 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 28 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 313 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 16 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 227

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 828 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 114,184

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 21 for 105,000 oz

Comex volumes:81,613// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65,273 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6805 x 5,000 oz = 34,025,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(21) and the number of notices served upon today 21 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,805 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (21) – number of notices served upon today (21) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 34,025,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 42.645 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 34.025 MILLION OZ represents 79.78% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 39.535 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 42.645 million oz or 92.70% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:57,835// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,100contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ADEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 943.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 479 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Gold Is One Of The Best Performing Assets Of 2022

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Given historically high inflation, why haven’t we seen a big rally in gold and silver?

There are a number of factors that have weighed on precious metals, but as the World Gold Council points out, it’s important to put gold and silver’s recent price movements in a broader perspective.

In fact, gold has been one of the better-performing asset classes in 2022.

Gold has outperformed US bonds, foreign bonds, the S&P 500, foreign stocks, the NASDAQ, and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The only things that have outperformed gold are commodities, especially oil and agricultural goods, and the US dollar.

So, while gold has fallen more than 5% over the year, it has fallen far less than most other assets, and if you hold gold in your portfolio, it has helped hedge some of those other losses.

The Mighty Dollar

Dollar strength has been the story of 2022. As the World Gold Council put it, “Rising rates and a strong dollar have had a significant negative effect on gold’s performance despite support from geopolitics and inflation.”

We’ve seen the dollar index at 20-plus-year highs. This seems kind of crazy given the level of inflation. After all, high inflation means the dollar is devaluing, right?

Yes.

And it has.

Your purchasing power has decreased precipitously. In June, we reported that the average US household will spend about $5,200 more this year than they did last year on the same consumption basket. That breaks down to $433 extra in expenditures every single month. So, your dollar is worth considerably less.

But when we talk about dollar strength, we’re talking about the greenback compared to other fiat currencies. And over the last year, the dollar has been the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry. Other fiat currencies have devalued even more. As Mike Maloney put it, “The US dollar has strengthened so much and so quickly this year that it has become a juggernaut, trampling pretty much every other asset.

The question is how long can this last?

In a nutshell, it will last as long as the mainstream thinks the Fed can win this inflation fight.

Peter Schiff recently said Jerome Powell still thinks he can pull off the impossible. A lot of people agree. You can see this in the bond market. Yields indicate investors think the Fed will do whatever is necessary to bring inflation down, it will do so effectively, and it won’t crash the economy. Peter said the markets are wrong on all counts.

They’re wrong about the economy and they’re wrong about the inflation. The economy is going to be much weaker than investors think. But at the same time, inflation is going to be much stronger than investors think.”

And Peter said once the Fed can no longer deny this reality, it will go back to loose monetary policy.

I think when Powell is really confronted with how ugly this is going to be, then we’re finally going to get that pivot. But this is a giant game of chicken, and I think Powell is going to keep up this pretense as long as he possibly can.”

In the meantime, other central banks are playing catch up. The ECB has gotten much more aggressive in its inflation fight. Other central banks are tightening. Japan is the only country still dragging its heels. The World Gold Council argues that this will begin to curb dollar strength.

The fact the other central banks are being more resolute in their policy decisions – partly to curb inflation, partly to defend their currencies – should weigh on the US dollar.”

Looking at the longer term, dollar dominance continues to erode. Some analysts think we are rapidly approaching a post-dollar world.

Gold’s Underlying Strength

Despite the headwinds, gold has performed better than might be expected.

Based solely on interest rates and dollar strength, gold should have fallen about 30%, according to a WGC model.

Meanwhile, negative investor sentiment drove heavy gold ETF outflows and weak positioning in the futures market. This put additional pressure on gold. The World Gold Council argues that gold has held up remarkably well given these headwinds.

The fact that gold has performed as well as it has, all things considered, is a testament to its global appeal and more nuanced reaction to a wider set of variables.”

The World Gold Council highlights some of the underlying support for gold beyond a likely softening of the dollar in the near future.

Positioning in gold futures has turned net short again and this, historically, has not lasted long – often mean-reverting in subsequent weeks. At the same time, central bank demand for gold remains quite strong. Finally, as recessionary and geopolitical risks increase, investors may shift to more defensive strategies, looking for high-quality liquid assets such as gold to reduce portfolio losses.

Given these factors, the World Gold Council said it is optimistic that gold’s headwinds may start to subside, but that supportive factors will remain, “thus encouraging demand for gold as a long-term investment hedge.”

END

another good read from Peter Schiff..

Schiff gold

This Looks A Lot Like the Dot-Com Bust With One Big Difference – Inflation

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

This is starting to look a lot like the popping of the dot-com bubble with one big difference — inflation.

Beginning in mid-June, we saw a significant bear market rally in stocks. But the recent declines have wiped out those gains and more. For instance, the Dow jumped 14% during the 2-month rally. By the close on Friday, Sept. 23, it was once again down 20% from its all-time high. That same day, the NASDAQ closed just 2% off its June low after a 23% rally.

As WolfStreet points out, the collapse of this bear market rally was predicated on the fantasy of a Federal Reserve pivot.

The bear-market rally happened because markets – meaning folks and algos playing in them – had this fabulous reaction to the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike scenario: They began fantasizing about a Fed “pivot” and about rate cuts and some even about QE all over again. Asset prices began to jump and yields began to fall.”

WolfStreet points out that this bear market rally is reminiscent of the dot-com era. During a similar two-month rally from May 27 through July 17, 2000, the NASDAQ jumped by 33% without ever getting back to its old high. Ultimately, the NASDAQ collapsed by 78%.

That bear-market rally in the summer of 2000 suckered a lot of people back into the market, thinking that stocks would be going to the moon again, and they got crushed.”

The difference between then and now is we have a CPI over 8%.

The Fed has inflated an everything bubble. Since 2008, the central bank has pumped over $8 trillion into the economy. It got away with this inflation for a long time because most of that money wasn’t getting to consumers. Instead, we saw asset prices spike – particularly the stock market and real estate.

The Fed tried to normalize rates in 2018 and the air started coming out of those bubbles. It had already pivoted back to rate cuts and QE long before COVID. In a sense, the pandemic saved the Fed’s bacon. It gave the central bank an excuse to pump trillions of dollars in new liquidity into the economy and reinflate the bubbles. But the extent of the quantitative easing and the fact that the government handed out trillions to consumers changed the dynamics. Suddenly, the inflation started showing up in the CPI.

The Fed denied it for months, calling inflation “transitory.” But once it became impossible to deny, it launched its inflation fight. Predictably, the markets tanked until they decided the Fed was about finished tightening. Now, reality has set in again and we’re back to the bear market.

WolfStreet sums it up.

These artificially inflated markets cannot even maintain their level amid rate hikes and QT. Even little-bitty rate hikes, just four in a year, and small amounts of QT caused markets to tank, just like interest rate repression and QE had caused them to soar. It was becoming clear to everyone: QT was having the opposite effect of QE.”

The question remains: what will the Fed do. Will it hold the course? Or will it do what it has done in the past — pivot back to inflationary, loose monetary policy to rescue the economy, as it did after the dot-com bust (setting up the 2008 financial crisis).

WolfStreet argues that there will be no Fed pivot. He thinks the central bankers will be willing to tank the economy to get inflation back to 2%, just as Jerome Powell promises.

There have been lots of people who said that the Fed will keep doing QT “until something breaks.” Last time it did QT until the repo market broke. That was when the banks stopped lending to the repo market, which then blew out, which cause the Fed to bail it out in September 2019.

“But this time, the biggest thing that the Fed is in charge of has already broken: price stability. Inflation is the worst it has been in 40 years. And the Fed is tightening in order to fix this huge thing that has broken – to bring this inflation back under control and down to 2% (as per core PCE). This could be a long and tough slog. And other things that might break along the way are by comparison just minor inconveniences.”

This is where I part ways with WolfStreet’s analysis. I think the things that break will be far more and “minor inconveniences.”

Just consider the impact on the national debt. When you run the numbers, it becomes clear the US government can’t operate in a high interest rate environment. And the US government isn’t alone under a big pile of debt. Corporations are overleveraged and consumer debt is at record levels.

So far, the Fed has stayed resolute to follow through with its inflation fight. Peter Schiff said the Fed still thinks it can do the impossible, and it will ultimately pivot. But not until it can no longer deny the impacts of its tighter monetary policy.

I think when Powell is really confronted with how ugly this is going to be, then we’re finally going to get that pivot. But this is a giant game of chicken, and I think Powell is going to keep up this pretense as long as he possibly can.”

The mainstream has conceded a recession looms, although most people say it will be short and shallow. But as Peter Schiff said, the bust needs to be proportional to the boom.

We’ve never had a boom this big. We’ve never had interest rates this low for this long. We’ve never had an economy more screwed up than the one we have right now. We’ve never had bigger asset bubbles, bigger debt bubbles, more misallocations of capital and resources. So, we have more mistakes that we need to fix now than ever before. So, how are we going to do that with a short shallow recession? We’re not. It’s going to be a massive recession. And again, the Fed has no stomach for that, and that’s why the Fed is going to pivot.”

Alan Greenspan was able to engineer a recovery after the dot-com bust with some rate cuts. Ben Bernanke was able to engineer a recovery after 2008 with rate cuts and QE. (And by recovery, I mean reinflate the bubbles.) But they didn’t have to contend with 8.3% CPI. Jerome Powell does. And that changes everything.

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Lawrie Williams: Gold fulfills expectations in the U.K. and elsewhere if not the U.S.

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-09-28 13:52Section: Daily Dispatches

By Lawrie Williams
SharpsPixley.com, London
Tuesday, September 27, 2022

If one reads all the headlines about gold, one could be forgiven for thinking that 2022 has been a pretty disastrous year for those banking on the yellow metal to preserve their wealth.

This is indeed the case for gold holders in the United States, here the gold price has declined around 9%, although that is less than half that seen in most U.S. equities since the beginning of the year — even more in the NASDAQ stocks. But in the case of UK gold holders and holdings valued in pounds sterling, it has been a very different story altogether due to the fall in value of the pound against the dollar so far this year.

This has been a similar experience in other areas of the world where local currencies have been in strong decline against their U.S. counterpart.

In pound sterling terms, the gold price has actually appreciated by no less than 13% while the FTSE all-share index for comparison has declined by around 10% over the same period.
With the Bank of England following the U.S. Federal Reserve with an aggressive interest rate raising policy to fight inflation, and commenting that the UK economy is probably already in at least a mild recession, one can anticipate further equity price slippage, while the gold price can probably still hold its own, making it a continuingly good wealth protection choice for investors.

Of course the UK is not the only country where the gold price has been appreciating in the local currency due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. There are many others.

We have already reported on the resultant strength of the Australian gold mining sector during the most recent quarter due to the almost A$42 per ounce gold price rise during Q2 resulting from a 6-cent movement in the exchange rate between the U.S. and Australian dollars. With producer costs mostly in Australian dollars the miners mostly saw some good cost benefits. Although these would inevitably close over time, the short term advantages will have been beneficial. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-in-the-uk-gold-is-living-up-to-expectations_24327.htm

end

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: ALUMINUM

Aluminum surges the most on record. The crazy and corrupt LME considers a ban on Russian supply

(zerohedge)

Aluminum Surges Most On Record As LME Considers Russia Ban

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 08:21 AM

The closer we get to year end, the more we are reminded of the turbulent days of February and March when commodity prices soared to record highs on fears Russian supplies would be permanently taken off the market. And while commodities as a whole are sharply below those levels, and in many cases are even down on the year, every now and then we get a reminder just how complacent the market has become when it comes to continued Russian commodity supplies.

Today was such a day for aluminum, which soared by a record 8.5% on the London Metal Exchange after Bloomberg reported the exchange plans to discuss a potential ban on new Russian metal supplies. Prices for the most widely used base metal spiked to $2,305 a ton in the biggest intraday gain on record. Nickel rallied 5% and zinc more than 4%, paring sharp losses for industrial metals so far this month, sparked by market fears that an imminent recession will collapse demand.

Citing sources, Bloomberg reports that “the LME plans to launch a discussion paper on whether and under what circumstances it should block new supplies of Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses.”

The reason for the resulting spike in prices is that any move by the LME to block Russian supplies could have significant ramifications for the global metals markets, as the country is a major producer of aluminum, nickel and copper. Fears that sanctions could disrupt Russian nickel exports helped trigger a massive short squeeze on the LME in March.

While launching a discussion paper doesn’t mean the LME has made any decisions about what it will do, the move marks a shift in approach. The exchange had previously said it did not plan to take any action outside the scope of sanctions, which have for the most part left large Russian metal producers like Rusal and Norilsk Nickel untouched.

“The LME continues to take the required action to ensure market stability in response to sanctions,” the bourse said in a statement Thursday. It will keep the situation under review as it prioritizes an “orderly market,” the LME said.

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1252

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1199

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 48.79 PTS OR 1.58%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.13%

2. Nikkei closed UP 248.07 PTS OR 0.95%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 112.78/Euro RISES TO 0.9738

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.65/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.285%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.65%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.44%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.90//

3j Gold at $1651.25//silver at: 18.66 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 89/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.68//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 89 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.65DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9796– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9538well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.830 UP 12 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.775 UP 9 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,54…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Stocks Slide, Ugly Mood Returns As Traders Ask ‘Did Anything Change’

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 08:08 AM

The brief post-BOE euphoria has worn off, and risk-off sentiment returned to markets as concern about inflation and the global economy overshadowed the Bank of England’s desperate attempt to restore calm by restarting QE, exacerbated by more hawkish central bank talk and defiance by British PM Liz Truss’s tax plan (which has been slammed from the IMF all the way to the White House). Treasuries resumed their slide with UK gilts, while US equity futures fell as European stocks extended a selloff that’s caused valuations to drop to their lowest since 2012. As of 730am, emini S&P futures slid 0.7% to 3704, recovering from losses as big as 1.5% earlier.

The dollar rose and Treasuries resumed their slump as investors focused on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to deliver aggressive interest-rate hikes. The pound snapped a two-day gain and UK gilt yields rose as Prime Minister Liz Truss defended a giant package of unfunded tax cuts that sent markets into turmoil.

“Other than the dollar, there are not many assets that are trading constructively,” said Julia Raiskin, Asia-Pacific head of markets for Citigroup Inc. “The markets are very pessimistic. Investors are fairly on the sidelines.”

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks drop in premarket trading, following in the footsteps of Hong Kong- listed peers as the Hang Seng Tech Index erased almost all gains since a March nadir. Alibaba (BABA US) -3%, Nio (NIO US) -2.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) -2.4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -2.6%, JD.com (JD US) -2.4%. Bank stocks also slumped after snapping a six-day losing streak the day earlier. Here are other notable premarket movers:

Coinbase falls 2.5% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo starts coverage at underweight, with operating results set to remain under pressure. Bakkt (BKKT US) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) are both initiated at equal-weight, with Riot declining 3% in premarket trading.
Altus Power (AMPS US) slumped 16% in premarket trading after the company’s secondary offering priced at $11.50 per share, below Wednesday’s record close of $14.23.
First Solar (FSLR US) gained 1.3% in premarket trading after Evercore ISI analyst Sean Morgan raised the recommendation to outperform from inline, saying the company is poised to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Apple (AAPL US) shares were down 2.6% in premarket trading, set to extend Wednesday’s decline, as BofA Global Research cut the recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy.

European stocks bounced off session lows amid heightened risk-off mood. Euro Stoxx 50 slumped as much as 1.2%. Autos, retailers and real estate are the worst performing sectors as all slump. European miners rose after news that the London Metal Exchange is launching a discussion paper that marks the first step toward a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. Porsche AG rose as much as 5.2% as its shares started trading in Frankfurt after parent Volkswagen AG set the final listing price for the sports-car maker at the upper limit of its offer range. Here are some other notable European movers:

Accor shares jumped as much as 8.1%, before paring gains, after the French hospitality company raised FY22 Ebitda guidance to a level which analysts said was above consensus estimates.
Rational rose as much as 16% after the German kitchen appliances manufacturer raised its sales and Ebit guidance, citing improvements in the supply chain picture.
Capricorn Energy shares rose as much as 8.9% to 261p amid a proposed merger with NewMed Energy that’s expected to deliver total value to Capricorn shareholders of 271 pence per share.
H&M shares dropped as much as 7.2%, heading for the lowest close since September 2004, after it reported 3Q results that missed estimates and highlighted “very negative” market conditions.
Next fell as much as 10% after the UK high street retailer cut its FY guidance, citing the cost of living crisis and saying the devaluation of the pound is set to prolong inflationary pressures.
Colruyt shares plunged 24%, the most intraday on record, after it said the consolidated net result for FY22/23, ex. one-offs, is expected to decrease considerably compared with last year.
Ubisoft shares fell after the video-game company pushed back its Skull & Bones title to March 2023 from November, despite maintaining FY guidance. Analysts say the decision raises concern.
Wacker Chemie shares dropped as much as 7.8% after Stifel cut its price target, saying lower silicone and polysilicon prices hit sentiment.
Hornbach shares dropped as much as 7% after it published its latest 2Q report. The home improvement retailer posted a worse-than expected Ebit decline y/y, Warburg said.
European auto stocks fell and were among the worst performing subgroups on the wider market, with Volkswagen and its parent Porsche Automobil Holding SE leading declines.

European bond yields also rose as investors digested the latest inflation data and commentary from European Central Bank officials. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to the lowest since 2020.

Investors are contending with threats posed by discordant moves from central banks over the past few days, with Fed officials adamant on further monetary tightening, the BOE unveiling a £65 billion ($71 billion) plan to support government debt and authorities in Asia trying to prop up weakening currencies.

“The central bank is in a very difficult position right now,” Julie Biel, Kayne Anderson Rudnick portfolio manager and senior research analyst, said of the BOE in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Everyone has been a little bit backed into a corner in seeing the volatility and market reaction.”

Former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney accused the UK government of “undercutting” the nation’s economic institutions, and said that its fiscal plans were to blame for the drop in the pound and bonds. Simon Wolfson, the boss of Next Plc and a Conservative peer, also appeared to blame the Tory government for a crash in the currency and a worsening outlook for UK inflation, which the company cited as it lowered guidance for sales and profits.

Separately, the European Commission announced an eighth package of sanctions that would include a price cap on Russia’s oil exports as Russia vowed to go ahead with the annexation of the parts of Ukraine that its troops currently control after UN-condemned votes, putting the Kremlin on a fresh collision course with the US and its allies.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks pared earlier gains spurred by the Bank of England’s unlimited bond-buying plan, as sentiment again turned cautious with fears over a global recession. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2%, having earlier gained as much as 1.2%. Benchmarks in Australia and Japan outperformed, while South Korea’s market closed almost flat. Gauges in Hong Kong and China ended in the red with tech stocks sliding near the lowest since to a sector index was introduced in 2020. Hang Seng Tech Index Slides Toward Lowest Since 2020 Inception The key Asian equity benchmark slumped Wednesday to its lowest since April 2020 on concerns over the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate hikes. While the the UK central bank’s intervention to avert a crash in the gilt market helped calm investor nerves briefly, few saw the rally as a signal for a full-fledged rebound.

“We remain very cautious on the markets and would exercise a degree of patience,” Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Central bank moves, inflation and “the looming risk of recession” need to be monitored, he said. Down almost 12% in September, the MSCI Asian benchmark is set to post its worst monthly performance since the pandemic-triggered crash in March 2020. An index of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan is on course for its fifth-straight quarterly loss, its longest losing streak in 21 years.

Japanese equities rose, rebounding along with global peers as investors assessed the Bank of England’s move to buy government bonds. More than 1,100 Topix stocks traded without rights to the next dividend. The Topix rose 0.7% to close at 1,868.80, while the Nikkei advanced 0.9% to 26,422.05. Out of 2,169 stocks in the Topix, 1,854 rose and 271 fell, while 44 were unchanged. “Though there is still a strong uncertainty in the US and UK markets over the rise in long-term interest rates, for now there is a sense of relief in the markets as government bond yields in the UK settled down due to the unlimited purchase plan,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.4% to close at 6,555.00, boosted by gains in mining shares and banks. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,200.04

Stocks in India declined for a seventh straight day in the longest losing streak since February, tracking a selloff across global markets amid worries over possible recession. The S&P BSE Sensex gave up an advance of as much as 1% to end 0.3% lower at 56,409.96 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.2% as both indexes posted their longest stretch of declines in seven months. The key gauges have dropped more than 5% each this month and are on track to record their worst monthly performance since the pandemic led crash of March 2020. Ten of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined Thursday led by the utilities gauge which has lost 11% for the month, making it the worst sectoral performer.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index first rose then fell, as Treasuries slumped to unwind some of the previous day’s swift rally. The euro fell as much as 1% to $0.9636, before paring losses. It’s significantly more costly to hedge against euro price swings compared to a week ago, as traders bet on wider ranges with risks skewed to the downside. The pound erased losses amid month-end flows, after earlier falling by as much 1.2% to $1.0763. UK bonds extended losses after Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos. Commodity currencies led declines among G-10 peers. Onshore yuan eked out the first gain in nine days following a stern PBOC warning against “one-sided” speculation, but offshore yuan weakened 0.4%

In rates, Treasuries pared Wednesday’s gains with yields cheaper by up to 11bp across the 5-year tenor into early US session, with the belly’s underperformance helped by a large block sale in 5-year note futures. Treasury 10-year yields near highs of the day at around 3.83%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 3.5bp and 4.5bp in the sector; belly-led losses cheapens 2s5s30s Treasuries fly by 7bp on the day. Moves follow a more aggressive bear flattening move in gilts, wit front-end yields are cheaper by 20bp on the day. US session focus on GDP and Fed speakers throughout the day. Bunds, Italian bonds dropped and money markets raised ECB tightening bets after German state CPIs rose in September while euro-area economic confidence dropped to 93.7 in September, the lowest since 2020. UK 10-year bonds decline after Truss doubled down on her economic package;

In commodities, Brent rebounded from earlier lows, to trade near $89.50 following reports of OPEC+ considering production cuts. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $1,648/oz. Bitcoin is under modest pressure but lies within narrow ranges of less than USD 500 at present and well within recent parameters as such.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include German CPI for September, Italian PPI for August, and UK mortgage approvals for August (the calm before the storm). We’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, as well as the third estimate of Q2 GDP. From central banks, we’ll also hear from an array of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Simkus, Panetta, Centeno, Villeroy, Knot, Elderson, Rehn, Vasle, Kazaks, Muller and Lane. In addition, there’ll be remarks from the Fed’s Bullard, Mester and Daly, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden and the BoE’s Tenreyro.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 3,692.25
MXAP up 0.2% to 139.97
MXAPJ little changed at 453.71
Nikkei up 0.9% to 26,422.05
Topix up 0.7% to 1,868.80
Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 17,165.87
Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,041.21
Sensex down 0.3% to 56,446.56
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 6,554.97
Kospi little changed at 2,170.93
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.6% to 383.23
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.23%
Euro down 0.9% to $0.9650
Brent Futures down 1.2% to $88.23/bbl
Brent Futures down 1.2% to $88.23/bbl
Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,644.68
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.92% to 113.64

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Britain is in a self-inflicted financial crisis that threatens to accelerate the economy’s dive into recession — and the country’s new prime minister is coming under intense pressure to blink
The ECB should opt for a “big” increase in interest rates in October, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, who said in an interview that subsequent hikes are likely to be smaller. His Baltic counterparts Gediminas Simkus and Madis Muller also indicated they’d back significant moves, while Mario Centeno of Portugal called for a “measured and balanced” approach
The ECB must ensure pay pressures don’t get out of control in its efforts to keep expectations stable, according to Governing Council member Olli Rehn
The Riksbank believes it is very important that monetary policy continues to act for inflation to fall back and stabilize at the target of 2% within a reasonable time perspective, the Swedish central bank says in minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting
Japan’s capital markets suffered the biggest foreign outflow in three months last week as growing fears of a global downturn fueled a search for liquidity
China’s economy stabilized in the current quarter, and the final three months of the year will be key to the nation’s economic recovery, Premier Li Keqiang said
As doubts grow over whether Xi Jinping still prioritizes expanding China’s economy over other goals, he’s tipped to appoint a new economic adviser who’s vowed to put growth first
OPEC+ has begun discussions about making an oil-output cut when it meets next week, a delegate said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St where risk sentiment was buoyed and yields retreated following the BoE’s announcement to resume Gilt purchases. ASX 200 outperformed in which the commodity-related sectors led the broad advances across industries following the recent upside in energy and metal prices, while firm monthly CPI data did little to dent risk sentiment. Nikkei 225 was also positive but with gains initially capped as more than half of the stocks traded ex-dividend. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also firmer with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheaded by tech and energy stocks, while the mainland also digested reports that the PBoC is setting up a more than CNY 200bln re-lending facility quota for equipment upgrades which aims to expand market demand in the manufacturing sector.

Top Asian News

PBoC injected CNY 105bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injects CNY 77bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 180bln net injection.
Chinese President Xi told Japanese PM Kishida that they attach great importance to the development of China-Japan relations and he is willing to work with Kishida to build relations, while Kishida told Xi that bilateral relations are currently facing many issues and challenges but he hopes to build constructive and stable relations to boost peace and prosperity, in messages to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations.
Hong Kong’s Worst Trading Debut in 2022 Sends EV Maker Down 34%
US’s Harris Goes to DMZ Hours After North Korea Missile Launch
Japan’s First Bond to Help Ocean Planned by Major Seafood Firm
Best HK IPO Quarter in Year Ends With Disaster Debut: ECM Watch
Yuan Bears Bet China Is Powerless to Fight the Mighty Dollar
China Vows to Speed Up Delayed Homes With Special Loans

European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open. Sectors are in a sea of red with no clear theme. Autos kicked off the day as the outperformer as the Porsche AG IPO occurred at a premium to the guided price of EUR 82.50/shr. US equity futures are also trading with losses across the board, with relatively broad-based downside of 1.3-1.5% seen across the front-month contracts.

Top European News

UK PM Truss says the fiscal statement (i.e. mini-Budget) is the correct plan.
UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury says the growth plan will get the economy growing, one of the reasons growth plans included tax cuts was to alleviate the household burden. BoE intervention has had the desired effect. Disagrees with the IMF’s remarks.
US President Biden’s administration was reportedly alarmed by the market turmoil caused by the UK’s economic program and is seeking ways to encourage PM Truss’s team to dial back its tax cuts, according to Bloomberg.
France is reportedly considering proposals for up to two hour power cuts for parts of the country on a rotating basis, via Reuters sources; additionally, telecom names have highlighted power issues with the German and Swedish gov’ts.
German Network Regulator says recent gas consumption by households is too high to remain sustainable, via Reuters; gas savings of 20% are required to avoid an emergency.
German gov’t could make a “low three-digit billion amount” available for the gas price break, discussion of EUR 150-200bln, via Handelsblatt citing gov’t circles; will reportedly be announced today.
Europe Gas Eases With Traders Weighing Impact of Pipeline Blasts
Rational Jumps After Boosting Sales Guidance Above Consensus
Truss Says UK Tax Cuts Are the ‘Right Plan’ Amid Market Rout
German Economy Seen Shrinking Next Year Due to Energy Crisis
Profligate Government to Blame for Pound Drop, Says Wolfson

USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs and thus shy of the YTD/WTD peak at 114.78.
Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China’s state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore, sending USD/CNH to 7.1437 from circa. 7.20 pre-release.
Cable managed to ‘recover’ to a test of 1.09 but failed to breach the level with multiple BoE speakers in focus later.
EUR/USD moving at the whim of broader USD action and failing to glean any real traction from multiple speakers and German state/Spanish mainland CPI data.

Fixed Income

Core benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced ‘recovery’ seen yesterday, with numerous speakers due and the second BoE operation.
Specifically, Bund lies towards the bottom of a 200 tick range while Gilts are holding onto the 95.00 handle with the associated yield lifting further above 4.0%.
Stateside, USTs are similarly at the lower-end of parameters ahead of data and numerous speakers while the curve flattens further

Central Banks

ECB’s Simkus says his choice of hike for October is 75bp, says 50bp would be the minimum, via Bloomberg. A 100bp hike would be too much at this point.
ECB’s Centeno says decisions must be measured and balanced, still far from the neutral rate, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Rehn says prospect of recession in Euro Area is likely.
ECB’s Vasle says current hike pace is “appropriate” response to inflation; expects to raise rates at the next several meetings.
ECB’s de Cos says so far there is no clear evidence of de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Based on current models, median terminal rate value is at 2.25-2.5% (significant uncertainty).
ECB’s Kazaks says 75bp will likely be appropriate for October, via Bloomberg.
PBoC says they are to add more loans to ensure property delivery when required, via Reuters.
China’s state banks have reportedly been told to stock up for Yuan intervention offshore, according to Reuters sources, in a bid to defend the weakening Yuan.. State banks were asked to asked offshore branches, such as those in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review holding of the CNH to ensure dollar reserves are ready to be deployed.
RBI likely selling USD via state-run banks around 81.92-81.93 levels, according to traders cited by Reuters
NBH hikes one-week deposit rate by 125bp, to 13.00%.
Turkish President Erdogan says interest rates need to come down further; CBRT needs to lower rates at the next meeting, via Reuters.

Geopolitics

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said North Korea’s multiple missile launches are unacceptable and Japan will maintain close contact with allies including the US to monitor and deal with North Korea, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey will increase its military presence in northern Cyprus, according to Sky News Arabia.
EU Official expects an agreement on the next Russian sanctions package, or at least major parts of this, before the EU Summit next week. Expects the discussion to focus on referendums, possible annexation, nuclear threat and Nord Stream.
Russian State Duma representatives have received invitations to the Kremlin for Friday, September 30th at 13:00BST, via Ria.
Russian Kremlin says the ceremony on incorporating new territories will occur on Friday, September 30th – President Putin will speak.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
08:30: Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.39m, prior 1.38m
08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -0.6%, prior -0.6%
08:30: 2Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%
08:30: 2Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
08:30: 2Q GDP Price Index, est. 8.9%, prior 8.9%

Central Bank Speakers

09:30: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economic Outlook
13:00: Fed’s Mester and ECB’s Lane Take Part in Policy Panel
16:45: Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks at Boise State University

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

How could you have earned a 42% return yesterday from a AA-rated investment? Simple. At anytime between 8-11am all you had to do was buy 40yr Gilts before the BoE effectively restarted QE only days before QT was suppose to start (it’s been postponed until October 31st – ironically Halloween). The buying operation is aimed at restoring liquidity to a broken long end market and is temporary but it’s another stunning development to a stunning year. I’ve always felt that this debt supercycle would end up with central banks doing QE even if interest rates were positive. The reason being is that the economy can be growing and seeing inflation at a point when investors baulk at funding all the debt. I appreciate this BoE operation is slightly different and I would have never have guessed the series of events that got us here but it might not be the last time a central bank buys government bonds when not at the zero bound given how much debt there is and how much there’s likely to be going forward.

It’s becoming clearer the extent to which Tuesday’s rout at the long-end was exacerbated by collateral calls on LDIs (liability driven investments) that pension funds have typically used in some size in recent years. With these swaps moving so far out of the money, the risk was that investors would have to sell liquid assets to meet margin calls. If they didn’t have this (which a lot don’t), then obviously there would have been huge liquidity events. To understand the fears that were around over the last 48 hours, Sky News’ economics editor Ed Conway said yesterday that “I am told there were a swathe of pension funds that … would have essentially collapsed by this afternoon”. Whether that’s true, we’ll never know but it shows the level of fear.

Overall, this isn’t quite monetising debt in the purest sense but at the end of the day we have seen fresh central bank buying of debt after unfunded tax cuts pushed up yields dramatically. Despite the BoE’s insistence that these are targeted, temporary purchases designed to ease market dysfunction, global pricing reacted as if they were launching a new QE program to ease financial conditions. Global equities increased, with the S&P 500 (+1.97%) breaking a run of 6 consecutive losses and global bond yields fell across the curve.

In yield terms, 30yr gilts had been trading above 5% prior to the BoE’s announcement, but afterwards they staged a stunning turnaround to fall by an astonishing -105.9bps yesterday. That was easily the largest decline in the 30 years of available Bloomberg data, with the next two closest being a -39.7bps and -30.5bps decline in 1997 and 2009, respectively. It was also the largest absolute daily yield move in the 30yr, with the next two closest being Monday and Tuesday’s sell-offs. The decline takes 30yrs back to 3.92%, which is still above the c.3.5% level prior to the fiscal announcement last Friday but more within normal market reaction levels. Yields on 10yr gilts were down by a smaller -49.8bps, although that reflected the BoE only purchasing gilts with a residual maturity of more than 20 years. Sterling also managed to strengthen for a second day running, with a +1.45% gain against the US Dollar. But that overall performance hides some incredible intraday swings, with sterling moving sharply higher immediately after the BoE’s announcement before tumbling by -2.74% over the subsequent hour and a half before paring back those losses once again. It is down -0.75% in Asia as I type. Remember that markets are still pricing in around +150bps worth of hikes by the next BoE meeting on November 3, and implied sterling-dollar volatility for the next month remains at levels we’ve only previously seen around the GFC, the Covid pandemic and Brexit in the 21st century, so we certainly haven’t heard the end of the UK’s turmoil just yet.

That intervention from the BoE helped sovereign bonds across the world. Indeed, yields on 10yr US Treasuries had been trading just above 4% immediately prior to the intervention, before reversing course to close -21.0bps lower on the day at 3.71%, which is their biggest move lower since the wild intraday swings we had in March 2020 when the Fed was stepping in to buy Treasuries and MBS in unlimited size; sound familiar? Those gains came as investors moved to downgrade the likelihood that the Fed would be pursuing aggressive policy into next year, with the rate priced in for December 2023 coming down by -23.3bps. This morning in Asia, yields on 10yr USTs (+3.6bps) have edged higher again to 3.77% as we type. In terms of the Fed, we did hear from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said he favoured another 125bps of hikes this year, but Chair Powell didn’t comment on policy in an appearance at a Community Banking Research Conference.

Over at the ECB, we heard from an array of speakers yesterday, including President Lagarde who said that the ECB would “continue hiking rates in the next several meetings”. Multiple speakers separately endorsed another 75bps hike next month as well, including Latvia’s Kazaks who said that “I would side with 75 basis points”, Austria’s Holzmann who said that “I think 75 would be a good guess”, and Slovakia’s Kazimir who said that 75bps was “a good candidate to continue and keep tightening.” However, sovereign bonds still rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-11.1bps), OATs (-11.8bps) and BTPs (-22.2bps) all down significantly.

When it came to equities, yesterday also finally brought a reprieve from the heavy selling over recent days, which had taken a number of major indices to their lowest levels since late-2020. As mentioned at the top, the S&P 500 (+1.97%) ended its run of 6 consecutive declines with a strong advance that took the index back into positive territory for the week. Despite the rally, the Vix managed to finish above 30 again, as it has every day this week. Indeed, the Vix has finished above 30 on nearly 19% of trading days this year, which is the fourth most in the last 20 years, behind just the crisis years of 2008, 2009, and 2020. The count hides how skewed the distribution is as in ten of those years, the Vix never once finished the trading day above 30. Yesterday’s equity rally was less extreme in Europe, with the STOXX 600 (+0.30%), the DAX (+0.36%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.30%) seeing modest gains.

In Asia, the Hang Seng (+1.05%) is leading gains, rebounding from recent steep losses with the Kospi (+1.01%), the CSI (+0.50%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.24%) and the Nikkei (+0.25%) are trading higher. Stock futures in the US are pointing to a slightly more negative start though with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.22%) both in the red. As we go to print, the Swedish media is reporting that coast guards have found a fourth leak on the Nord Stream pipeline. What worries me is that if this can be done to this pipeline what stops it being done to a fully working pipeline.

Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stepped up its efforts to limit FX weakness by warning banks against betting on the yuan, after its rapid decline against the US dollar this week which pushed the Chinese currency to as high as 7.25 yesterday. Indeed, the US dollar index (+0.59%) at 113.27 is trending upwards this morning, after hitting a fresh two-decade peak yesterday before pulling back.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, although US pending home sales for August were down -2.0% (vs. -1.5% expected). With the exception of April 2020 during the lockdowns, that takes them to their lowest level in over a decade. In the meantime, the US goods trade deficit for August narrowed to $87.3bn (vs. $89.0bn expected), which is its smallest level since October 2021.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German CPI for September, Italian PPI for August, and UK mortgage approvals for August (the calm before the storm). We’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, as well as the third estimate of Q2 GDP. From central banks, we’ll also hear from an array of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Simkus, Panetta, Centeno, Villeroy, Knot, Elderson, Rehn, Vasle, Kazaks, Muller and Lane. In addition, there’ll be remarks from the Fed’s Bullard, Mester and Daly, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden and the BoE’s Tenreyro.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Wednesday’s BoE-induced ‘recovery’ stalls, multiple speakers due amidst inflation data – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 06:43 AM

European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open.
USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs
Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China’s state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore
UK PM Truss stuck to the Chancellor’s mini-Budget, saying it is the correct plan.
Core debt benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced ‘recovery’ seen yesterday
WTI and Brent front-month futures have been trimming losses throughout the European morning; LME metals buoyed by BBG sources
Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB’s Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Pill, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bullard & Mester.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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LOOKING AHEAD

German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB’s Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Pill, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bullard & Mester.

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB’s Simkus says his choice of hike for October is 75bp, says 50bp would be the minimum, via Bloomberg. A 100bp hike would be too much at this point.
ECB’s Centeno says decisions must be measured and balanced, still far from the neutral rate, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Rehn says prospect of recession in Euro Area is likely.
ECB’s Vasle says current hike pace is “appropriate” response to inflation; expects to raise rates at the next several meetings.
ECB’s de Cos says so far there is no clear evidence of de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Based on current models, median terminal rate value is at 2.25-2.5% (significant uncertainty).
ECB’s Kazaks says 75bp will likely be appropriate for October, via Bloomberg.
PBoC says they are to add more loans to ensure property delivery when required, via Reuters.
China’s state banks have reportedly been told to stock up for Yuan intervention offshore, according to Reuters sources, in a bid to defend the weakening Yuan.. State banks were asked to asked offshore branches, such as those in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review holding of the CNH to ensure dollar reserves are ready to be deployed.
RBI likely selling USD via state-run banks around 81.92-81.93 levels, according to traders cited by Reuters
NBH hikes one-week deposit rate by 125bp, to 13.00%.
Turkish President Erdogan says interest rates need to come down further; CBRT needs to lower rates at the next meeting, via Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said North Korea’s multiple missile launches are unacceptable and Japan will maintain close contact with allies including the US to monitor and deal with North Korea, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey will increase its military presence in northern Cyprus, according to Sky News Arabia.
EU Official expects an agreement on the next Russian sanctions package, or at least major parts of this, before the EU Summit next week. Expects the discussion to focus on referendums, possible annexation, nuclear threat and Nord Stream.
Russian State Duma representatives have received invitations to the Kremlin for Friday, September 30th at 13:00BST, via Ria.
Russian Kremlin says the ceremony on incorporating new territories will occur on Friday, September 30th – President Putin will speak.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open.
Sectors are in a sea of red with no clear theme. Autos kicked off the day as the outperformer as the Porsche AG IPO occurred at a premium to the guided price of EUR 82.50/shr.
US equity futures are also trading with losses across the board, with relatively broad-based downside of 1.3-1.5% seen across the front-month contracts.
Click here for more detail.

FX

USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs and thus shy of the YTD/WTD peak at 114.78.
Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China’s state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore, sending USD/CNH to 7.1437 from circa. 7.20 pre-release.
Cable managed to ‘recover’ to a test of 1.09 but failed to breach the level with multiple BoE speakers in focus later.
EUR/USD moving at the whim of broader USD action and failing to glean any real traction from multiple speakers and German state/Spanish mainland CPI data.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Core benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced ‘recovery’ seen yesterday, with numerous speakers due and the second BoE operation.
Specifically, Bund lies towards the bottom of a 200 tick range while Gilts are holding onto the 95.00 handle with the associated yield lifting further above 4.0%.
Stateside, USTs are similarly at the lower-end of parameters ahead of data and numerous speakers while the curve flattens further.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent front-month futures have been trimming losses throughout the European morning.
Over to metals, the complex was initially weighed on by the broader USD strength, with spot gold trading on either side of USD 1,650/oz.
Elsewhere, 3M LME copper has trimmed its earlier upside as the USD pulled back, with the contract now inching closer to USD 7,500/t to the upside, whilst aluminium spiked after Bloomberg sources suggested the LME is to consult on a potential ban of Russian metals.
OPEC+ commenced discussions around an output cut for the October 5th meeting, via Reuters citing OPEC source. One source said a cut is “likely”.
RBC sees a ‘significant chance’ of substantial OPEC+ supply cut and said OPEC+ may cut by 500k-1mln bpd at the October 5th meeting.
Senior EU official says ministers should hopefully adopt windfall profit levies on energy firms on Friday; ministers will discuss different options for a gas price cap tomorrow, via Reuters. Ministers will also discuss whether measures to cut gas demand further are required.
EU Commission will not put a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow’s emergency meeting of energy ministers, according to a working document cited by journalist Keating.
LME to consult on a potential ban of Russian metals, according to Bloomberg sources.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK PM Truss says the fiscal statement (i.e. mini-Budget) is the correct plan.
UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury says the growth plan will get the economy growing, one of the reasons growth plans included tax cuts was to alleviate the household burden. BoE intervention has had the desired effect. Disagrees with the IMF’s remarks.
US President Biden’s administration was reportedly alarmed by the market turmoil caused by the UK’s economic program and is seeking ways to encourage PM Truss’s team to dial back its tax cuts, according to Bloomberg.
France is reportedly considering proposals for up to two hour power cuts for parts of the country on a rotating basis, via Reuters sources; additionally, telecom names have highlighted power issues with the German and Swedish gov’ts.
German Network Regulator says recent gas consumption by households is too high to remain sustainable, via Reuters; gas savings of 20% are required to avoid an emergency.
German gov’t could make a “low three-digit billion amount” available for the gas price break, discussion of EUR 150-200bln, via Handelsblatt citing gov’t circles; will reportedly be announced today.

DATA RECAP

German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Sep) 10.1% (Prev. 8.1%); MM (Sep) 1.8% (Prev. 0.3%)
EU Consumer Confidence Final (Sep) -28.8 vs. Exp. -28.8 (Prev. -28.8)
EU Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 50.3 (Prev. 43.7, Rev. 44.6); Inflation Expectations (Sep) 41.3 (Prev. 36.8, Rev. 37.0)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

White House said US President Biden’s economic team reported that the US economy remains resilient in the face of global challenges, while President Biden directed his economic team to stay in touch with allies and key market actors, as well as brief him regularly on global financial and energy markets, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is under modest pressure but lies within narrow ranges of less than USD 500 at present and well within recent parameters as such.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St where risk sentiment was buoyed and yields retreated following the BoE’s announcement to resume Gilt purchases.
ASX 200 outperformed in which the commodity-related sectors led the broad advances across industries following the recent upside in energy and metal prices, while firm monthly CPI data did little to dent risk sentiment.
Nikkei 225 was also positive but with gains initially capped as more than half of the stocks traded ex-dividend.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also firmer with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheaded by tech and energy stocks, while the mainland also digested reports that the PBoC is setting up a more than CNY 200bln re-lending facility quota for equipment upgrades which aims to expand market demand in the manufacturing sector.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

PBoC injected CNY 105bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injects CNY 77bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 180bln net injection.
Chinese President Xi told Japanese PM Kishida that they attach great importance to the development of China-Japan relations and he is willing to work with Kishida to build relations, while Kishida told Xi that bilateral relations are currently facing many issues and challenges but he hopes to build constructive and stable relations to boost peace and prosperity, in messages to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

Australian Monthly CPI YY (Aug) 6.8% (Prev. 7.0%)
New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Sep) -36.7% (Prev. -47.8%)
New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Sep) -1.8% (Prev. -4.0%)

end

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

BANK OF ENGLAND//UK

This is important: huge moves in bond yields causes volatility shocks. Pension funds and insurance funds are purchasers of long bonds and use derivatives to augment their returns. There were massive margin calls on these underwriters causing the B.of E to intercede. Expect the Pound to lower again along with yields to rise

(Bloomberg)

Bond Portfolios In Var Shock Get BOE Help, But There’s Plenty More Action To Come

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 07:31 AM

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and commentator

The Bank of England did what it had to. But there’s plenty more action to come.

Yields spiraling out of control is bad enough, but when they skyrocket some 150 basis points in the space of just a week, that represents a value-at-risk shock of epic proportions. It hurts particularly if it happens at the long end, where pension funds and insurers are active. Of course, immunizing a bond portfolio is just par for the course for liability-driven investors, but when rate volatility is what it is these days, it can at best cushion the variance in the realized rate of return — not insulate your portfolio completely from the maelstorm.

Of course, the BOE’s purchases of bonds mean that fiscal and monetary policy, taken together, haven’t been this incongruous in a long, long time — a quantitative conundrum if you like. In any case, the backstop raises several questions. Among them:

Are we past the worst?

To the extent that the BOE’s bond purchases obviate the need for liability-driven investors to post additional collateral — a step that would force many of them to sell other parts of their portfolio and entrench a vicious market circle — the move certainly does the job of an doctor at an A&E. But what happens after Oct. 14, when the purchases are supposed to end? A whole lot depends on how Downing Street will respond between now and then. Will the chancellor, for instance, roll back some of the measures and heed the advice of the International Monetary Fund?

What does this mean for rate hikes?

Investors fully expect the BOE — already way behind the curve — to see the obvious and raise rates before its scheduled meeting. November 3 is just an arbitrary policy date, and there is hardly anything sacrosanct about it. Central banks need to change interest rates when they need to, not when the calendar says it’s time. Front-end yields are some 200 basis points higher than the policy rate, which sets a minimum hurdle for the BOE to clear.
It’s important to remember that the BOE’s backstop just papers over the cracks, but doesn’t undo any of the damage from a) a massive inflation problem that wasn’t addressed adequately before the present crisis brewed; and b) the still-considerable increase in yields since before the episode.

What happens to the pound now?

We aren’t done with the declines — considerable as they have been this year — in sterling. The pound is likely to hurtle toward parity as noted here in the coming months so long as the Fed keeps going, exposing inflation-adjusted yield differentials against other economies.
Against that backdrop, expect the pound to weaken against not just the dollar, but also against the euro. The euro is already trading about 1% higher against sterling in my model, a sign of speculation building in the cross.

GERMANY

The far right AfD party is now the strongest party in Eastern Germany

(Cody/Remixnews)

Conservative AfD Now Strongest Party In Eastern Germany, Rises To 15% Nationally

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Could conservatives also one day score a breakthrough in German politics? The Alternative for Germany party — which has faced extreme political pressure, including threats to ban the party entirely — is seeing a surge in support, particularly in what was once formerly East Germany. According to polling firm Insa, it is now the strongest political party in that entire region of the country, which is home to over 16 million people.

If there were federal elections next Sunday, AfD would reach 27 percent in the eastern federal states, while CDU would follow with one point less. SPD and the Greens would only get 15 and 14 percent, respectively.

Since FDP only achieved 7 percent, only 36 percent would vote for the traffic-light parties there. The Left party would come in at 8 percent.

However, AfD is also trending higher in western Germany where AfD now averages 12 percent. CDU holds the lead at 28 percent, while the Greens (21), and SPD (19) are also in front of AfD. FDP (8) and Left (5) trail behind. In Lower Saxony, where elections will be held on Oct. 8, AfD reaches 9 percent, according to Infratest dimap, one of its lowest results for AfD of any German state.

A total of 15 percent of Germans would vote for AfD, with the party’s support rising a point compared to just a week ago. The conservative party is now just three points behind the Social Democrats (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which now stands at 18 percent.

AfD has experienced a steady positive trend in polling over the last months, with the party serving as a vocal critic of the left-wing government’s sanctions policy against Russia. The party has also called for an opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany; however, such a policy is likely no longer possible for the foreseeable future following a suspected sabotage attack on the pipeline that will keep it offline for some time.

Specific cultural and economic factors have led AfD to be far more popular in the east of Germany than in the west. East Germans remain more skeptical of mass immigration and cultural trends from the West, but also tend to sympathize more with Russia. However, one of the greatest concerns in this region of Germany, which is driving popular support of AfD, is the current economic crisis, with inflation hitting east Germans far harder than those in the west of Germany due to the already lower incomes and poverty rates seen in the east.

The major parties in Germany have long said they would never form a coalition with AfD. However, the same cordon sanitaire applied to the Sweden Democrats (SD) in Sweden. And yet, after scoring over 20 percent of the vote earlier this month, SD has entered a power-sharing agreement that many in Swedish politics never thought would be possible.

END

GERMANY/NATURAL GAS

Germany is still in a mess as natural gas supplies lower

(zerohedge)

“Prices Must Come Down”: Germany Redeploys COVID Cash To Fight Inflation

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 10:35 AM

In the strange ‘upside down’ world of politicians, Germany is joining an array of other nations that have decided the way to ease the pain of (government intervention-enabled) inflation on their citizens is by throwing more money at it.

In order to limit the impact of soaring energy costs – and avoid the social unrest that is now becoming discussed more loudly in the bureaucratic corridors of power in Brussels – Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration is preparing to redeploy funds from its COVID preparedness piggybank (which will be added to in order to reach the €200 billion ($194 billion) sum that the government believes is necessary) to put a lid of soaring gas prices.

“Prices must go down,” Scholz said at a press conference in Berlin.

“To reach this goal, we are opening a big umbrella.”

Lowering prices by decree?

This, of course, will do nothing to reduce consumption as winter is coming and shortages loom.

In fact, as OilPrice.com’s Irina Slav reports, Germany’s gas consumption rose too much last week to levels higher than in previous years, and without considerable gas conservation – including from households – Europe’s biggest economy will find it difficult to avoid gas shortages this winter, Germany’s Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur, said on Thursday.

Starting from today, the agency—the regulator to impose rationing in case of severe shortages—will publish weekly figures about gas consumption in Germany. Last week’s consumption from businesses and households at 483 GWh/week was well above the average seen throughout the 2018 to 2021 period when it was 422 GWh/week. Last week, German gas consumption rose by 14.5 percent compared to the average of the previous years, mostly because that week was colder than comparable weeks in the past four years.

However, the savings needed to avoid gas shortages should be achieved regardless of temperatures, the German regulator said today.

“Without significant savings, also in the private sector, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in the winter,” the agency’s president Klaus Müller said.

The past week’s gas consumption numbers are very sobering, he added.

Germany’s gas storage sites are over 91% full, but the country will survive the winter without rationing and shortages only under three conditions, Müller said.

First, bringing the projects for LNG imports online,
Second, gas supply in Germany’s neighbors remaining stable, and
Third, Germany conserving gas even when it gets colder as winter approaches, he added.

If the coming winter is colder than usual, Germany could see severe nationwide gas shortages, which it will not be able to predict more than two weeks in advance, Müller said earlier this month.

“I can’t give an exact forecast of where the risk of a shortage is the greatest,” Müller told German business daily Handelsblatt in mid-September.

“If we get a very cold winter, we have a problem.“

While little to no details of exactly how this will be achieved have been released, we can’t help but see the ugly reflections of UK’s Truss plan to cap energy bills with an unlimited exposure to the UK balance sheet.

Weimar here we come again?

The irony of all of this is that it comes as German inflation reached double digits for the first time since the euro was introduced more than 20 years ago, surging more than anticipated after temporary government-relief measures ended and Europe’s energy crisis worsened.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran has witnessed huge protests these past two weeks. Now Iran’s oil contract workers are threatening to strike unless the government ends its crackdown and violence against women. A woman was beaten and died after she did not wear a hijab.

(OilPrice.com)

Iran Oil Workers Threaten To Strike If Government Doesn’t End Crackdown

WEDNESDAY, SEP 28, 2022 – 06:20 PM

Submitted by OilPrice.com

Iranian oil industry contract workers have warned the government to end its crackdown on protesters or they will strike, a move that could cripple a key sector of the economy.

“We support the people’s struggles against organized and everyday violence against women and against the poverty and hell that dominates the society,” the Organizing Council of Oil Contract Workers said on September 26.

Iran has been roiled by unrest that has spread to more than 80 cities and towns, including in the northwest, where 22-year-old Mahsa Amini lived before eyewitnesses and family said she was beaten — and later died — after being seized by the morality police in Tehran on September 13.

Labor protests in Iran also have been on the rise in recent months in response to declining living standards and state support as crippling Western sanctions wrack the economy.

The outrage over Amini’s death also has reignited decades-old resentment at the treatment of women by Iran’s religious leadership, including laws forcing women to wear Islamic scarves to cover their heads in public.

The Iran Human Rights Organization said on September 27 that at least 76 people have been killed in anti-government protests across Iran.

END

RUSSIA/AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN)

Why not? Russia sells discounted Russian oil, gas and wheat to the Taliban

(zerohedge)

Taliban Signs Breakthrough Deal For Discounted Russian Oil, Gas & Wheat

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The American military machine saunters out after a 20-year occupation, and Russia darts in: “The Taliban have signed a provisional deal with Russia to supply gasoline, diesel, gas and wheat to Afghanistan, Acting Afghan Commerce and Industry Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters.”

The major deal was weeks in the making and negotiating, centered in Moscow with Taliban leadership, after Acting Afghan Commerce and Industry Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi led a delegation there last month.

Ironically, Moscow has yet to formally and fully recognize the Taliban government since it took power when it swept into the Afghan capital in August 2021 – amid a chaotic US evacuation from the airport – but Russia has been among a handful of countries to leave its embassy open in Kabul.

“Azizi said the deal would involve Russia supplying around one million tonnes of gasoline, one million tonnes of diesel, 500,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and two million tonnes of wheat annually,” Reuters detailed of the agreement.

The deal is “provisional” in that it stipulates an unspecified trial period, which if it goes well is to lead to the signing of a longer term, permanent deal.

Azizi described that the agreement involves a “discount to global markets on goods that would be delivered to Afghanistan by road and rail.”

Crucially, amid the backdrop of its war in neighboring Ukraine and corresponding US and EU-led sanctions which are bent on imposing total economic and political isolation on Russia, Moscow has set its sights on a pivot to Asia for badly needed emerging energy and commodities export markets:

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, “Asia-Pacific countries emerged as new centers of economic and technological growth” and it is necessary for Russia to follow the Asia-Pacific trend, generating a new domestic economic drive and a palpable alternative to Russia’s subordination to Europe and the United States in several fields. Simultaneously, Asia has become the cradle “of new centers of power” in the world, where Moscow seeks respects for its sovereignty, national values, and interests.

China too, has reportedly been attempting to make inroads into highly unstable and economically collapsed Afghanistan – but these reports have been focused on a military angle. For example, in the opening months after the US exit, there were even signs and speculation that China’s PLA was looking to take over the sprawling abandoned Bagram Air Base.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/DONBAS AREAS

Putin Gives “Major” Speech As Part Of Ukraine Annexation Ceremony

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 08:51 AM

Russia has announced it is holding an annexation ceremony on Friday for the four regions which just conducted a 5-day referendum on whether to join the Russian Federation. It will mark the final move declaring the territories effectively under Kremlin control and its citizens as now Russian.

“Tomorrow in Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace at 15:00 (12:00 GMT, or 8:00am US eastern) a signing ceremony will take place on the incorporation of the new territories into Russia,” a Kremlin statement previewed Thursday.

Additionally Putin is expected to make a “major” speech, according to the statement by Dmitry Peskov. Polls in the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, closed by Tuesday evening, and as expected returned an overwhelming “yes” vote.

The annexation will be formalized at the ceremony, and it’s likely that President Putin will reiterate warnings against Ukrainian forces attacking the newly declared annexed territories.

Putin said in a televised meeting with officials on Tuesday as voting closed in the four regions: “Saving people in the territories where this referendum is taking place… is the focus of the attention of our entire society and of the entire country.”

On Wednesday Russian media declared a huge sweep in favor of the four occupied regions becoming part of Russia. In some of the regions the “yes” vote was at 98% – which was somewhat expected especially in the breakaway Russian speaking republics where the dividing line had already be made clear through years of war going back to 2014.

A White House statement said in response to the “sham” referendums, “The United States will never recognize Ukrainian territory as anything other than part of Ukraine. Russia’s referenda are a sham – a false pretext to try to annex parts of Ukraine by force in flagrant violation of international law, including the United Nations Charter.”

It added, “We will continue to support the Ukrainian people and provide them with security assistance to help them defend themselves as they courageously resist Russia’s invasion.” About 18% of Ukraine will be claimed by Russia with this annexation announcement.

The US is said to be preparing further sanctions in response to the annexation move, also after the EU announced it has proposed an eighth package of expanded sanctions, including a potential oil price cap, which however is expected to be controversial within the bloc given Hungary’s long on-record objections.

developing…

END

USA/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

More munitions to Ukraine:

Another $1.1BN In Arms Ukraine: “We Will Not Be Deterred,” White House Says

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 11:14 AM

On Wednesday President Joe Biden approved $1.1 billion more in military aid for Ukraine, marking the 22nd such installment, and as the US is warning Russia against following through with annexation of four territories which wrapped a 5-day referendum on joining the Russian Federation.

According to the White House Press Secretary, this latest defense package consists of “18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, as well as munitions for those systems, 150 armored multipurpose vehicles, 150 tactical vehicles to tow weapons, 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment, two radars for unmanned aerial systems, 20 multi-mission radars as well as secure communication systems and body armor.”

The report continues, “Unlike a presidential drawdown authority, which pulls weapons directly from U.S. stockpiles, the latest security assistance package is authorized through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI, which uses funds appropriated by Congress.”

In total this brings US commitment of security assistance to more than $16.2 billion since February, when the Russian invasion began. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in announcing the fresh defense aid, “We will not be deterred from supporting Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, the West in general is likely about to hit some significant practical limitations concerning this vow of “not being deterred” – as Dave Des Roches, an associate professor and senior military fellow at the U.S. National Defense University, explained to CNBC:

“I’m greatly concerned. Unless we have new production, which takes months to ramp up, we’re not going to have the ability to supply the Ukrainians,” Des Roches told CNBC.

Europe is running low, too. “The military stocks of most [European NATO] member states have been, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said earlier this month.

Karine Jean-Pierre vowed further in the Wednesday briefing that the Biden administration will “provide them [Ukrainians] with the security assistance they need to defend themselves, for as long as it takes.” On this question of timeline, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl weeks ago explained that these deliveries could take months of even years based on the defense contracting process.

end

FINLAND/RUSSIA

Finland will BAN Russian tourists from TONIGHT to stem huge influx of civilians trying mobilisation | Daily Mail Online

Inbox

Watch the bans on all Russian citizens is bound to grow in all so called G7 countries with the excluding China. It will not stop with Finland.
Meanwhile the BRIC countries are working on a common currency to be used by them for all trade settlement and that will encompass India as well.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11262359/Finland-BAN-Russian-tourists-TONIGHT-stem-huge-influx-civilians-trying-mobilisation.html

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL/

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

Video: ‘Tucker Carlson Suggests Biden Admin Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Accuses U.S. regime of “environmental terrorism”; this is a very serious accusation by a serious person

What do you think of this piece by Tucker? I always find him informative and well researched. I find very troubling.

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 29

▷ LISTEN SAVE

SOURCE:

https://summit.news/2022/09/28/video-tucker-carlson-suggests-biden-admin-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines/

end.

I would put my money on the uSA blowing up the tubes to prevent Germany ever going back to Russian for natural gas

(zerohedge)

NATO Officially Blames “Sabotage” For Nord Stream Damage; Fourth Leak Discovered

Germany Believes High Explosive Devices Equivalent To “500 Kilograms Of TNT” Used To Destroy Nord Stream

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 09:54 AM

Update (0954ET):

German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that German security officials believe “highly effective explosive devices” were used to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

According to SPIEGEL information, it was calculated that explosive devices with an effect comparable to that of 500 kilograms of TNT must have been used to destroy the tubes. The seismic signals registered by various measuring stations were also included in the estimate.

The previously unknown estimates support the assumption that only a state actor can be behind the action. So far, the federal government has held back with speculation about the background to the interruption of the pipelines.

There is a lot of speculation that Russia is behind the action. The Russian leadership, however, described the process as international terrorism directed against Russia.

The federal government is hoping for more information from a more detailed examination of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which are interrupted to the north-east and south-east of the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm. In security circles it was said that divers or a remote-controlled robot could possibly assess the damage at the weekend.

In the best-case scenario, one could then draw initial conclusions about the type of explosion under water and the explosives used, according to security circles. However, it is difficult to predict how many traces can still be found. — Der Spiegel

The blasts were so large that the Swedish National Seismic Network detected a 1.9 on the Richter scale and another one that registered 2.3…

Two powerful underwater explosions were detected on Monday in the same area of sea as the Nord Stream gas leaks, according to the Swedish National Seismic Network.

The monitoring network said the first explosion occurred on Monday at 2:03 a.m. Swedish time with a magnitude of 1.9 on the Richter scale, followed by a second at 7:04 p.m. on the same day with a magnitude of 2.3.

To get an idea of what the bombs had to rip through to damage the tubes, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas shows NS1 and NS2 were inches thick of steel coated with tons of concrete on each section. Blas said each tube is ‘very strong’.

What sparked our attention is why did the CIA warn Germany of an attack on Nord Stream weeks in advance?

And now NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the Nord Stream attack “sabotage” and said it would be met with a “determined response.”

* * *

Update (0735ET):

Reuters quoted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday, saying attacks against EU critical infrastructure would be met with a “determined response.” He called the acts “sabotage. “

“All currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage.

“We, as Allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors. Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response,” a statement from the North Atlantic Council (NATO) read.

Separately Stoltenberg tweeted:

Stoltenberg nor NATO named the culprit behind the pipeline attacks, though some EU officials have suggested Russia.

There was no mention of how NATO “arrived at its assessment that the damage, which it said has caused substantial environmental fallout and shipping disruptions, resulted from the intentional attack,” WSJ noted.

NATO’s statement is a significant increase in tensions between Russia and the West ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to annex parts of eastern Ukraine.

More details on the fourth Nord Stream leak are below.

* * *

Sweden’s coastguard confirmed a new leak was discovered on the damaged Nord Stream pipeline system in the Baltic Sea on Thursday, according to Reuters. Add this to the three other leaks for a grand total of four that have been spewing natural gas into the water since Monday.

“Two of these four are in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone,” coast guard spokesperson Jenny Larsson told Svenska Dagbladet newspaper. He said the other two are situated in the Danish exclusive economic zone.

While neither NS1 nor NS2 was operational during the suspected undersea explosions earlier this week, they were filled with NatGas to Germany, with Denmark estimating the leaks would dissipate by Sunday.

There are two massive gas bubbles on the surface of the Baltic above the damaged pipelines in Sweden’s economic zone. One gas bubble measures a staggering 2,950 feet in diameter, while the other is about 600 feet.

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 07:34 AM

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

Excess mortality/deaths (all-cause mortality) in Germany: ask yourself a simple question, why would the excess death curve track so tight with COVID vaccine shots? 2020 vs 2021, difference is vaccine

We see excess deaths high ranging from 15 years to 79 years (red bars) in 2021 yet we know that deaths were down in this age band and high for persons >80 years? How come so different to 2020 data?

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 28

▷ LISTEN SAVE

What happened in 2021 that did not happen in 2020? Seems with COVID deaths down in 2021, something caused deaths to surge in 2021. What? Is this explained by deaths due to delayed medical procedures in 2020? Maybe some. But we know why, and the word begins with ‘V’.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362777743_Excess_mortality_in_Germany_2020-2022

end

Rising Covid-19 cases in the UK may be a warning for the US; of course ‘rising’, this is the trend in heavily vaccinated nations & moreover, not only will vaccinee get infected, but also ill & deaths

We also have BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 clades rising and this will make the fraud worthless bivalent Pfizer (based on legacy Wuhan and BA4 & BA.5 clades) shot even more worthless; Walgreens data below

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 29

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Sub-clades 4.6, 5.2, and 5.2.1 are emerging and again, the new bivalent booster is already DOA.

SOURCE:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/health/uk-fall-wave-covid-us/index.html

“Generally, what happens in the UK is reflected about a month later in the US. I think this is what I’ve sort of been seeing,” said Dr. Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at Kings College London

Open in browser Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s CEO, accused me, McCullough, Vanden Bossche, Risch et al. of being criminals, his words, but who is more of a criminal than Bourla pushing a gene injection that fails & harmful
listen carefully at minute 1:12 when he calls us criminals, this criminal saying this because we have raised credible questions about his fraud shot that, now he has COVID twice, 4 shots
Dr. Paul Alexander
Sep 28
▷ LISTEN SAVE S

VACCINE IMPACT/

VACCINE INJURY/

Rise In Child Death Rate Linked To COVID Shot | NaturalHealth365

Inbox

Robert Hryniak

12:08 PM (0 minutes ago)tohttps://www.naturalhealth365.com/unprecedented-amount-of-excess-deaths-among-children-linked-to-covid-shots-european-data-reveals.html

The latest reports from Slay News

Top Cardiologist Warns Public about Soaring Heart Attacks: ‘Stop Vaccines Immediately’
One of the world’s leading cardiologists has spoken out to issue a warning to the public over the alarming rise in people being admitted to hospital with heart attacks.
READ MORE

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A MUST READ

(Michael Every)

“QE + Rate Hikes” This Is The Way To Lehman, Bubbles Or MMT

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“This is the Way” to Lehman, bubbles, or MMT

Yesterday saw more *wild* market action.

It started with a key Tory official arguing not with the EU, but markets (“Tory Peer Lord Frost Doesn’t Think ‘Anything Has Gone Wrong’ As Pound Touches Record Low: The former chief Brexit negotiator dismisses market turmoil since the mini-budget as “unwarranted” and an “over-reaction) while Tory supporters argued on social media with the IMF (“Embarrassed for the IMF. This is the IMF self-declaring as a left-wing body. The UK should now withhold its IMF contributions.”)

There were rumors, long heard on the Street, that Janet Yellen is out as Treasury Secretary after the mid-term elections. Who, without a key role at present, has been all over the press talking about the need for higher rates? Larry Summers. So who is next in line, perhaps? What a shock for markets that would be. From someone who once ran the Fed to someone who wanted to run the Fed. How apt given the increased link-up between fiscal and monetary policy.

While GBP was around 1.07, EUR was at 0.9550, CNY at 7.23, AUD below 0.64, and NZD lower than it’s Covid trough. In bonds, Europe –which sadly cannot keep burning Angela Merkel’s reputation for heat forever– heard the ECB’s Holzmann hold up the UK up as an example of how he would carry out QT – like ripping a plaster off a wound.

Pension funds long Gilts were getting crushed, with the 30-year yield at 5.10%, and a spiral of events beginning that threatened an imminent Lehman-like event (as Yellen told us would never happen again in her lifetime: just don’t mention what FRA-OIS spreads are doing again).

Then the BOE announced it would buy unlimited long Gilts, which is now apparently to be GBP5bn a day for 13 days, just ahead of when it was supposed to be selling them, to prevent “a material risk to UK financial stability”.

Down went UK long yields, the 30-year closing at 3.93%; down went yields everywhere – the US 10-year was at 4% yesterday morning and went straight back to 3.75% (potentially blowing up anyone who was short); and up went global equities.

After all, if the BOE could U-turn, surely the ECB and the Fed could too? Indeed, earlier in the day, the ECB’s Lagarde did not make it entirely clear to all listeners whether she was a buyer or a seller of bonds, or both, when she spoke around the issue and her long list of pet acronyms.

For those not paying attention, what we just got was something I believe only this Daily has been flagging all year (but do please correct me if I am wrong on that claim) – QE and rate hikes.

Of course, as a colleague pointed out, it was not the MMT plus rate hikes I have been saying is inevitable, because the BOE action was “not intended to be useful”: ironically, the budget behind the extra Gilt issuance also isn’t useful. Yet the BOE action was useful for markets, as there were no other buyers at that point. It was therefore an emergency pension fund bailout.

The market reaction shows they think “This is the Way”. Watch everyone start saying QE and rate hikes can work together, and expecting their own bailouts. I will be in the corner wishing I had printed T-shirts saying “QE + rate hikes”, like the “DM = EM” ones I also didn’t make, and which I would not have accepted sterling for if I had. (Sorry, dollars only.)

Yet the problems with assuming we are now ‘saved’ are:

We just saw another huge easing of financial conditions that means central banks need to raise rates even more – and they are determined to do so. As Bloomberg reports today, “Some big bond investors say don’t be deceived by the Treasury market’s torrid rally Wednesday. The hawkish signals still coming out of the Federal Reserve are what matters. The rest is noise.” Indeed, otherwise there is no point in inflation targeting and independent central banks at all.
The market will smash currencies of those doing QE. While GBP closed higher despite the BOE de facto paying for rich people to buy more stuff(!), the DXY dollar index collapsed on the mere idea that the Fed might start doing QE again too. That is as the US leans on a strong dollar to suppress inflation
Brent leaped 3.5% on the day even as physical demand is faltering and recession looms, while Bitcoin and gold leaped too. This is the yields-down-so-commodities-up *SO YIELDS ARE WRONG* argument I have been making this year.
Central banks won’t watch a systemic crisis unfold (and Summers being quoted on Bloomberg as backing the BOE move only underlines that he is likely to fill Yellen’s shoes) but large market losses as they raise rates are clearly fine in their/his eyes. It may not be “Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate”, but there must still be a lot of liquidation, or else we can’t remove inflation now supply chains are “geopolitical” and workers are “political”.

I stand by my view that MMT plus rate hikes will be “the Way” because there is nothing else on the table. Unless we want to go back to bubbles, which the market clearly does because that is all it does. (As another colleague yesterday quipped, people who think they are a solution to our problems also think we can house the homeless in the Metaverse.)

Emergency actions aside, on QE vs. MMT, the BOE’s actions wouldn’t be bubble-blowing if it bought bonds from the government directly, not the secondary market. That way there would be no lower yields except in as much as the total bond supply hitting the market is partly absorbed. That would also force differential borrowing costs within the economy to reallocate resources to the supply side: the state borrows for free to do so, the private sector borrows at whatever the non-emergency bond yield is plus the usual spread to do what it wants to do.

Part of the “QE is not MMT” argument also rests on a view QT will soon reverse QE: but can that really happen now? The BOE just cancelled a speech on balance sheet contraction pencilled in for today. But if so then the imperative must surely be NOT to do more of the same old QE, when everyone can see what vast nothingness its trillions of dollars have bought us in our unequal, inflation-struck, and geopolitically-unprepared real economy?

To hammer that home, ask critics of the UK what they would do instead. “Not this” is not a policy. Watch the realisation slowly sink in that there is nothing that logically could be done from here BUT rate hikes and supply-side MMT. Apart from just suffering for years.

Meanwhile, China and UK both just said “This is NOT the Way” via warnings to speculators not to bet against their currencies. In neither case will this work while the dollar is still going up, which it soon will be again – especially with Summers in the background. Yet that parallel warning makes sense given both economies are likely going to end up with similar MMT-led supply-side policies… once all the others have been tried and failed. After all, Bloomberg reports today that the likely next China ‘economic czar’ will be He Lifeng, who favours more credit and more growth, which will likely mean de facto MMT either on or off book. Which, by the way, will be hugely inflationary for everyone from the commodity side.

So, don’t think the volatility is over yet: vastly more lies ahead. Especially since the word is the British government absolutely refuses to accept that this is a crisis, or driven by its own actions in any way, or is something that the general public is either noticing or worried about(!)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97380 UP 0.0032 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED

USA/ YEN 144.65 UP 0.240 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.0869 UP 0.0040

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.13%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 85.01 PTS OR 0.49%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.51% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 85.01 PTS OR 0.49%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.13%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.51%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 248.07 PTS OR 0.95%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1650.20

silver:$18.69

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 112.78 UP 27 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.27% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.248% UP 1 AND 4/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.38%// UP 5 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.65 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.188% UP 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.97714 UP .0067 or 67 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.52 UP 0.102 OR YEN DOWN 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1025 UP .0195 OR 195BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0079 OR 79 BASIS pts to 1.3708

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP 7.1200

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.1170

TURKISH LIRA: 18.52 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.248

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.757% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.708 UP 3 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.28 DOWN 0.23 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 141.32 PTS OR 2.02%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 225.56 POINTS OR 1.85%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 97.01 PTS OR 1.68%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 147.10OR 1.98%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 518.61PTS OR 2.49%

WTI Oil price 80.70 12: EST

Brent Oil: 88.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 57.73 UP 0 AND 19/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.188

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98007 UP .0095 OR 95 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1082 UP .0252 or 252 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.40 DOWN .014//YEN UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3693 UP 0.0096 (CDN dollar, DOWN 93 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 81.48

Brent OIL: 88.40

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.767%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 3.708%

USA dollar index:112.06 DOWN 0.44 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.49

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 57,21 UP 0 AND 33/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 456.14 PTS OR 1.54 %

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 329.05 PTS OR 2.86%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 31.87 UP 1.69 PTS (5.60)%

GLD: $154.67DOWN 0.02 OR 0.01%

SLV/ $17.37 DOWN 0.08 CENTS OR 0.46%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

The Crash Just Won’t Stop But Today Something Changed

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 04:05 PM

After yesterday’s euphoric, BOE-inspired, short-squeezed meltup, today was supposed to be a continuation rally courtesy of one of the most oversold markets in history.

It didn’t quite work out that way, and stocks opened into an absolute rout, with the NYSE TICK indicator not turning positive until almost one hour into trading after one of the biggest negative ticks of 2022.

As a result, those who expected yesterday’s BOE “temporary QE” pivot would be enough to push stocks higher for at least a few more days – here even some of the biggest pessimists expected this bear market rally to last for 2-3 days at least – were promptly disappointed as stocks tumbled all day, dropping almost to new 2022 lows…

…. in a broad, and high-volume selloff which dragged every sector lower.

The selling which for all intents and purposes pushed stocks to 2022 lows (and the lowest since Nov 2020), meant that spoos are now down 7 of the past 8 days, with today’s drop more than wiping out all of yesterday’s gains.

But unlike recent selloffs which were mostly catalyzed by surging yields, or a soaring dollar, today we have seen neither, as both 10Y TSY yields (as 30Y gilts have gone nowhere)…

… and the Bloomberg dollar index slumped all day in what would otherwise have been a huge relief for risk assets.

One possible reason for the continued USD weakness: after a modest attempt to rebound, Nov Fed hike odds slumped again, and after pricing in nearly 90% odds of a 75bps in Nov, the odds are back to just 63% and dropping.

But while oil did indeed enjoy the slide in the dollar, avoiding an even bigger rout thanks to a Reuters report that OPEC+ would cut output by 500K-1MMb/d next week…

… the same can not be said for US stocks obviously, as instead of macro traders today were focused on the micro, with Apple tumbling for a second day in a row, and one of its biggest slides in the past year…

… this time following a rare downgrade from BofA.

The continued implosion in AAPL and other tech names has pushed Goldman’s most-shorted tech index to March 2020 levels, and is about to take out that particular support, bringing the index back to Dec 2018 levels.

Additionally, the absolute disintegration in used car retailer, Karmax, which lost a quarter of its market cap today following catastrophic earnings and a dire assessment of the industry, certainly did not help the apocalyptic investor sentiment.

In any case, whatever prompted today’s sell off – and as Goldman explained there is much more selling to come – one thing is certain: stocks can keep crashing 10% every day in perpetuity and thanks to Zeno’s paradox, they still won’t hit bottom.

END

I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//

Aaaand It’s Gone…

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 09:53 AM

No-show from The Bank of England this morning to ‘save the world’ and some ‘good news’ from US labor markets – not at all what The Fed wants to see – and the result is a plunge-gasm in US equity markets, erasing all of yesterday’s meltup/short-squeeze gains…

…as rate-hike expectations are on the rise again (Fed must try harder to hammer the jobs market).

Elsewhere things are relatively quiet: Bonds are only up around 3-5bps in yield, the dollar is flat, and gold is down only modestly.

end

AFTERNOON TRADING

ii) USA DATA/

Powell’s Plan Is Not Working – Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 5-Month Lows

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Well this is not going to help fight inflation…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time dropped back below 200k last week (193k) – the lowest number since April…

Continuing Claims also fell to its lowest in 3 months.

Fed Chair Powell will not be happy that his cunning plan to fight inflation by easing the tightness in the labor market – by raising rates and crushing the economy – does not seem to be working.

Presumably this means more higher and more longer rate-hikes are to come…

Which explains why futures are tumbling.

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Hurricane Ian expected to unleash up to $70 billion in losses and cause great devastation to the insurance market

(zerohedge)

Hurricane Ian To Unleash Up To $70 Billion In Losses, Insurance Market Devastation And Even Bigger Spike In Inflation

WEDNESDAY, SEP 28, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Just three weeks ago we observed how the 2022 Hurricane season had neared its halfway point without any hurricanes making landfall on the coast of the United States.

All that is about to change and with a bang: As the powerful Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida which is rapidly evacuating ahead of landfall, it threatens to further destabilize a homeowners-insurance market already teetering on the edge of disaster.

The storm is expected to make landfall along the southwest Florida coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, and could send seawater coursing through the streets of Tampa.

While Ian’s strength and trajectory are subject to change in the coming days, one early estimate pegs potential damage and economic losses in the Tampa Bay region at $50 billion to $70 billion, according Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research.

That price tag, according to Bloomberg citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, would make Ian among the costliest storms in US history, as the top end of that range would rank Ian as the sixth-costliest US hurricane. Difficulties in getting needed material and supplies to victims due to snagged supply chains are likely to raise costs even further.

Some insurers will likely not survive: Ian is arriving in the wake of six insolvencies among insurers that write homeowner policies in the state. According to Bloomberg, the largest insurers largely pulled back from the market after taking a beating from natural disasters, and the smaller firms still active there have struggled to endure losses.

“It’s kind of the worst timing for the storm, especially if it hits Tampa Bay,” Logan McFaddin, vice president of state government relations for the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, said in an interview.

Flood damages aren’t typically covered in home policies. Instead, they fall under policies managed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“If this is a major flood event, that could leave many homeowners vulnerable,” said Mark Friedlander, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute. “If there were major windstorm losses, other companies could be pushed in the direction of potential insolvency as well.”

State-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp. accounts for slightly more than 10% of the Florida homeowners insurance market by premiums written. The market share is somewhat higher in some of the counties surrounding Tampa, according to Michael Peltier, a spokesman for Citizens. The insurer has been forced to take on more market share as other firms fold or cease writing policies due to rampant litigation and scams lawmakers have struggled to subdue.

Progressive has said it doesn’t want renew about 60,000 policies in the state, citing efforts to “limit growth in the coastal and hail-prone” areas while focusing on regions less prone to catastrophe losses. Florida has passed legislation that would make those exits harder; meanwhile, the company is charging more for insurance, particularly for homes with older roofs.

As part of its preparations for the storm, Citizens is setting up catastrophe-response teams and getting ready to deploy vehicles equipped to assess damage and assist customers who lose internet access.

“It’s no secret that the private market has been facing some challenging times here in Florida,” Peltier said. “Having a hurricane come ashore certainly doesn’t help.”

And then there are those insurers who will survive, only to make the US inflation problem even worse: the massive losses will likely lead insurance companies to join sovereigns such as Japan in selling some of their Treasury holdings to raise money to pay claims, which in turn will help spur inflation. This takes place amid an already strapped supply chain and high inflation. The storm appears likely to intensify food inflation as Ian takes direct aim on crucial orange-growing and fertilizer-manufacturing zones.

In short: a perfect storm in the worst possible time.

end

Supply chain disruptions could linger for weeks

(Freightwaves)

Supply Chain Effects From Hurricane Ian Could Linger For Weeks

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 07:20 AM

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

The risk to manufacturing, agriculture and distribution sectors in Florida is rapidly intensifying as powerful Hurricane Ian takes aim at the state’s southwest coast. But the economic ripple effects are likely to be felt well beyond the storm zone.

Experts are predicting severe disruption to supply chains from flooding, power outages and wind damage that could stall factory and farm production, as well as freight movement through major port, airport, highway and rail nodes. The Tampa-to-Orlando corridor is chockablock full of huge retail and e-commerce distribution centers.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Noru is similarly upsetting supply chains in Southeast Asia as it barrels across the South China Sea toward Vietnam.

Ian is expected to make landfall in western Florida on Wednesday, according to forecasters. Major flooding from the storm surge is expected for communities along Tampa Bay.

The storm could impact up to 2,800 manufacturing firms in aerospace, automotive components, heavy machinery, chemicals and plastics, as well as about 7,000 health care producers in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, diagnostics and other fields, Everstream Analytics, which uses predictive software to help customers like Apple and Schneider Electric manage supply chain risk, said in a weather update Tuesday.

“Even just a couple hours of downtime at a major production site or industrial zone means additional time making repairs, spinning up machinery and restarting work,” said analyst Anthony Yanchuk.

According to Resilinc, which maps customers’ supply chains and provides early warning of potential disruptions, Ian’s impact could be much wider and long-lasting.

More than 4,500 factories, warehouses and distribution centers, which produce or distribute about 74,000 parts for everything from electronics to chemicals, are in the projected storm zone, Resilinc CEO Bindya Vakil told FreightWaves.

Nearly $20 billion in revenue is at risk just for companies Resilinc monitors.

Companies in other states could face shortages of truck capacity in the coming days if many motor carriers shift resources to provide logistics support for recovery efforts through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, humanitarian aid groups or state governments, said Vakil.

It will take an average of nine weeks for business to recover to pre-Ian run rates, based on historical experience with similar weather events and what suppliers in Resilinc’s network are communicating, she said in the interview. Production and shipping ability could be hindered by damage to buildings, equipment or inventory. The length of downtime will be influenced by whether businesses have alternative sites and redundant manufacturing.

“A lot of times people sort of know where the warehouse that they place their orders is, but they don’t know where the factories are actually located, and how the different factories connect into their supply chain,” Vakil said. “That’s, that’s really important because if companies are not monitoring their suppliers that are in Florida right now, then three weeks later, they might have a critical supplier who says, ‘Hey, remember that hurricane that actually knocked down power and my factory went down for two weeks and now I can’t ship you something.’

“When you have companies who know that they have factories in the region, they are picking up the phone right now, before the hurricane even made landfall, they know exactly how much inventory they have, where it is, and they can start to control and allocate in a right way and and control the usage. But if you’re not aware, then you’re reacting three weeks from now. And that’s too late,” Resilinc’s CEO said.

Everstream Analytics said the sector facing the biggest harm is agriculture. The storm could cause extensive crop damage ahead of the harvest season, which starts in November. Concerns have increased as the storm’s track shifted further south in the last 24 hours toward more orange-producing counties.

South Florida produces 70% of U.S. citrus. High winds could blow down oranges before they are picked and fields could be flooded. As Ian moves north, it could also degrade cotton crops and soybean and tobacco production in the Southeast, according to Everstream.

Truckers face the possibility of less business if there are reduced crop volumes to move, and consumers could see higher produce prices, exacerbating already high inflation.

Freight transport constraints

Power outages and high water are expected to paralyze traffic on major highways, especially Interstates 4 and 75, the Everstream forecasters said.

Expedited trucking company Sterling Transportation said its shippers should expect delays due to facility closures and that it may hold cargo at origin instead of sending it into the storm area until conditions are considered safe.

Vessel traffic is already being halted. Port Tampa Bay and Seaport Manatee, which handles large quantities of steel, fertilizer and other noncontainerized goods, both closed Tuesday so workers could secure equipment and vessels could get out to sea. Port Tampa Bay specializes in imports of food and beverage products, as well as fuel.

Port Miami’s two main container terminals are closed on Wednesday and Port Everglades, in Fort Lauderdale, has stopped accepting inbound traffic on the expectation of high winds from Ian as it passes to the west. And the ports of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, have issued advisories for tropical force winds later this week. Depending on Ian’s path and strength, they could be forced to shut down too.

All four ports handle large amounts of container traffic.

Freight railroads haven’t revised their schedules yet but are monitoring conditions.

As for air cargo, Tampa International Airport shut down at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday and Orlando International Airport is shutting down at 10:30 A.M. Wednesday.

Delta Airlines said no cargo can be picked up or delivered Tuesday until after midnight at many airports in Florida, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa and Orlando. The service stoppage is likely to change Wednesday as the storm’s path becomes clearer.

Miami International Airport said it is open, but some flights are delayed or canceled due to the weather. Worldwide Logistics Group said in a customer notice that local drayage drivers in Miami are considering adding 48 hours to current cut off windows for receiving freight due to expected delays from weather and heavy traffic

Shippers with global supply chains are also closely tracking Typhoon Noru, which has strengthened and is headed toward central Vietnam after slamming through the Philippines. Everstream Analytics is warning of major disruptions to industries such as transportation and agriculture, with the key logistics hub of Da Nang expected to take a direct hit. Heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides are expected.

Vietnam closed airports and hundreds of flights were canceled Tuesday, according to Reuters.

end

Used car prices plummet which is good for inflation numbers but bad for the economy

(zerohedge)

“Horrendous” CarMax Results Confirm Fed Has Successfully Pushed US Economy Off A Cliff

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 12:14 PM

So much for that used-car price bubble, one of the main drivers – pardon the pun – behind the inflationary surge of 2022.

Shares of US auto dealers cratered today after CarMax’s Q2 reported catastrophic results which wildly missed estimates, sparking concern about the whole group. EPS of only 79c, almost half the $1.40 consensus estimate, shocked markets, while net sales of $8.14 billion also missed expectations. The stock lost a quarter of its value on Thursday.

A soundbite from the Vital Knowledge newsletter set the tone: it said that KMX “horrendous report” was bad for the stock and autos, but would be welcomed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell as proof the Fed has successfully pushed the economy into a recession. That’s because vehicle affordability issues stemmed from inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and low consumer confidence.

On the other hand, the results will exacerbate concern about the automotive industry. Indeed, the entire US automotive industry is being hammered by soaring interest rates and a stretched consumer. GM and Ford are also among the biggest decliners with Ford warning last week on inflation costs.

The silver lining: used car prices – which as noted above had an outsized contributed to high inflation – are finally tumbling as the next Manheim Used Car index update will undoubted show. But, as Bloomberg notes, the overall pain in a cyclical industry will outweigh that point. The auto complex and cruise lines (another consumer proxy) made consumer discretionary the worst performer in early US trading. Tech and real estate continue to get smacked by rising yields. This is just the latest confirmation that crushing inflation comes at a cost, which is usually a collapse in demand and a recession.

There was another silver lining: since it was unbridled consumer spending (thanks trillions in Biden stimmies) that prompted the Fed’s erratic response to crush the economy, observing first hand just how hard the US consumer is being crushed by soaring rates (as a reminder, the average mortgage just rose above 7% for the first time in 22 years earlier this week), may finally force the Fed to recognize that nuking inflation in a world where there is nothing more than smoldering, recessionary rubble, may not be the best strategy.

end

US Rail Volumes Fell 4.4% In Latest Week

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 02:20 PM

By Progressive Railroading.

U.S. freight-rail traffic declined 4.4% to 489,111 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending Sept. 24 compared with the same period in 2021, according to Association of American Railroads data.

The railroads logged 231,258 carloads, down 3.2%, and 257,853 containers and trailers, down 5.4%.

Three of the 10 carload commodity groups that AAR tracks weekly posted increases. They were motor vehicles and parts, up 1,610 carloads to 13,165; coal, up 819 carloads to 70,697; and nonmetallic minerals, up 372 carloads to 34,436.

Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2021 included metallic ores and metals, down 3,405 carloads to 20,708; grain, down 2,276 carloads to 19,540; and chemicals, down 1,758 carloads to 30,261.

For the first 38 weeks of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021:

U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 18,782,988 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.7%;
Canadian railroads reported 5,499,480 carloads, containers and trailers, down 2.4%;
Mexican railroads reported 1,417,850 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, up 2.5%.

Meanwhile, Canadian railroads posted 79,152 carloads for the week, down 1.2%, and 68,448 intermodal units, down 3.6%. Mexican railroads reported 22,855 carloads, up 22.4%, and 15,718 intermodal units, up 15.3%.

III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//

SWAMP STORIES

Court Orders Production Of Seth Rich Laptop

THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, a federal judge ordered the FBI to “produce the information it possesses related to Seth Rich’s laptop.”

This case involves a multi-year fight by attorney Ty Clevenger to obtain records relating to the FBI/DOJ investigation of Seth Rich, particularly whether Rich was involved in the hack of the DNC or had communicated with Wikileaks.

This fight dates back to 2017 and includes two FOIA lawsuit. In the first lawsuit, the FBI produced no responsive documents. The parties knew the FBI had something, and so this sparked a second lawsuit – where the FBI somehow found 20,000 pages of potentially responsive documents. The court explains:

Of those 20,000 pages, the government found 1,596 pages of responsive documents, of which the government withheld 1,469 pages under various FOIA exemptions (privacy, law enforcement exemption, etc.).

The FBI also withheld the contents of Seth Rich’s personal laptop, which it possesses, in its entirety, alleging the privacy of Rich’s family in “preventing the public release of this information” outweighs the public interest in disclosure.

The court rejected that argument, stating “the FBI has not satisfied its burden of showing more than a de minimis privacy interest that would justify withholding information from Seth Rich’s laptop.”

It concluded:

What will the laptop reveal? Time will tell. (Time is especially relevant becausethe DOJ will appeal and drag this out.)

What might be more interesting is the FBI’s complete records on Seth Rich. The FBI has fought production of those records – first by failing to “find” its own documents, and now by alleging documents must be withheld due to “national security grounds” and the “basis that disclosure of the information would threaten intelligence-gathering efforts.”

The information in the FBI’s possession includes that which was “provided by foreign government agency authorities under an implied assurance of confidentiality.” It also may – or may not – include whether the FBI used a “code name” associated with Seth Rich. And, if FBI representations are to be believed, it also includes “details of intelligence activities, sources, and methods related to national security.”

Unfortunately, the court won’t require the production of this information. Some questions will remain unanswered. Read the full order here.

KING REPORT

The King Report September 29, 2022 Issue 6854

Independent View of the News

Apple is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize https://t.co/2snGtB9lj5

ESZs rallied during early Asian trading, hitting a high of 3674.00 at 29:13 ET. Then, Apple announced that it would not increase production of new iPhones due to slack demand. ESZs tumbled, hitting a low of 3613.00 at 5:19 ET. USZs traded similarly to ESZs and hit a low of 123 30/32 at 6:01 ET.

Then, the Bank of England panicked – hours after Janet Yellen proclaimed, “markets are functioning well.”  The BoE announced that it would perform unlimited QE (debt monetization) to save gilts. Obviously a very big, systemically important entity (or more) was in trouble.

BoE: “As the Governor said in his statement on Monday, the Bank is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of UK and global financial assets… Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability… In line with its financial stability objective, the Bank of England stands ready to restore market functioning and reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses… the Bank will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 September…The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to affect this outcome.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bank-england-statement-purchase-long-dated-bonds-2022-09-28/

Bank of England intervenes in UK bond market to stem rout
The Bank of England said on Wednesday that it would buy as many long-dated government bonds as needed between now and Oct. 14 to stabilise financial markets, after a slump in British gilt prices since a government fiscal statement on Friday.  Citing potential risks to UK financial stability, the BoE also said it would delay the start of a programme to sell down its 838 billion pounds ($891 billion) of government bond holdings, which had been due to begin next week. https://t.co/L6Nv31wWrz

FT: Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets (Best account of what was happening)
Central bank to spend £5bn a day for 13 days as it warns of ‘material risk to UK financial stability’
“At some point this morning I was worried this was the beginning of the end,” said a senior London-based banker, adding that at one point on Wednesday morning there were no buyers of long-dated UK gilts. “It was not quite a Lehman moment. But it got close.”…
https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e

30-year Gilt yields rallied from 5.142% to 3.874%!!! The usual suspects quickly surmised and proclaimed that the Fed would be the next central bank to panic and resume QE. The odds of a 75bp rate hike at the Fed’s November 2 soiree sank to 40% from 90%.

King Report on Wednesday: We must reiterate that when historic or black swan moves appear, there is a high probability that some levered entities are ‘in trouble.’ It would be extremely unusual if no one is ‘in trouble’ now. Eventually, the problems will be revealed.

FT economics editor @ChrisGiles: This is now financial crisis territory…. limited to the UK. BoE will seek to stabilise – as it did after Brexit vote – let’s hope so.

Harvard’s @jasonfurman: The Bank of England is now rescuing fiscal policymakers from their recklessness. This is how fiscal dominance starts, fiscal dominance ends w/ high inflation & currency collapse. The UK will probably be able to avoid that–but not if it continues on its current course.

Please recall that first responses to crises seldom resolve ‘the problem’ – see Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG. Also, the first problem, is usual just the start – like when Bear Stearns’ hedge funds blew up in June 2007.

The BoE’s excuse to intervene is pension funds. This is a reason. Is it THE reason? PS – Why did England allow pensions to lever up on debt like hedge funds? Central banks’ miniscule and negative interest rate policies induced entities to buy debt on extreme leverage to generate yield.

The Pension Problem That Threatened to Wreck the Gilt MarketThe Bank of England intervened in the gilt market on WednesdayBOE was concerned that margin calls would cause a gilt crashFund managers running billions for pension funds faced collateral calls on strategies meant to give them exposure to long-dated assets to help match obligations that can extend decades. The so-called liability-driven investment, or LDI, funds were forced to post more collateral after receiving margin calls when gilt prices collapsed… The size of the LDI market has exploded over the past decade. The amount of liabilities held by UK pension funds that have been hedged with LDI strategies has tripled in size to £1.5 trillion in the 10 years through 2020…
    LDI collateral buffers are partly set using historical data to build models based on the likely probability of gilt price movements, according to Shalin Bhagwan, head of pension advisory at DWS Group. The sudden recent surge in gilt yields “blew through the models and the collateral buffers,” he said… (Exactly what we warned was occurring!)  https://t.co/L9H0JKAxYu

ECB President Christine Lagarde says borrowing costs will be raised at the next “several meetings” to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored and price gains return to the target https://t.co/fc3zVdjjop

@LynAldenContact 5:48 PM · Sep 27, 2022: The Fed’s QT in 2019 ended on a random day via the repo spike. I see it probably playing out similar this time (but certainly flashier so far) where some financial plumbing thing pops and forces a partial re-liquification that is mostly unrelated to the economy itself.

@albertedwards99 (less than 6 hours before the BoE panic): With G7 bond markets (ex-Japan) in free-fall, led by the UK, we are probably a few short weeks before something financial blows up. Central Banks will be forced to abandon QT and in extremis resume QE.

The abandonment of QT or rate hikes during the past two decades or more occurred with tame inflation. This is no longer the case. Intervention is now more dangerous and less effective.

@LiveSquawk: Bank of England Cancels Speech on Balance Sheet Reduction by Andrew Hauser, Which Had Been Due on Sept. 29

BOE Says It Purchased About £1b of Gilts, Less Than £5b Limit; received £2.588 in offers: BBG

@zerohedge: Again and always: every attempt to channel Volcker and crush inflation always ends the moment a fund manager makes a phone call to the central bank begging for a bailout.

The US 30-year rallied as much as 3 points; the 10-year yield fell 26bps, the largest drop since 2009!

ESZs and USZs soared after the BoE intervention; the dollar tumbled. The need and desire to game Q3 performance aided and abetted the stock and bond rallies on Wednesday. ESZs peaked at 15:49 ET.

White House mulling potential Yellen departure after midterms
White House officials are quietly preparing for the potential departure of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen after the midterms, the first and most consequential exit in what could be a broad reorganization of President Biden’s economic team… in addition to Yellen, officials are also considering the possibility that Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, will leave early next year..
   Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is also expected to return to her academic post in the spring of 2023, opening up another Cabinet-level economic position…
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/janet-yellen-treasury-midterms-shuffle

Positive aspects of previous session
Massive bond and stock rally on BoE intervention

Negative aspects of previous session
The BoE had to intervene to prevent a systemic problem
Commodities soared, led by energy commodities

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Who else is in trouble? How many are in trouble?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3710
Previous session High/Low: 3736.74; 3640.61

Researchers study whether child vaccines and asthma are linked
A federally funded study may have found a correlation between aluminum in vaccines and persistent asthma  https://t.co/O43PmrRkZD

Vaccination Increases Infection Risk by 44%, Oxford Study Finds
Two doses of COVID-19 vaccine make you 44% more likely to be infected, a study from Oxford University has found, contradicting the basis of global vaccine policy, which assumes vaccination significantly cuts incidence and transmission…
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/28/vaccination-increases-infection-risk-by-44-oxford-study-finds/

@RobertKennedyJr: After realizing his COVID booster shot may have sent his cancer into overdrive, Dr. Goldman, professor of immunology + pharmacotherapy at the Université libre de Bruxelles in Belgium, said going public with the information was the “right thing to do.”  https://t.co/943huibHq0

Today – After significant central bank intervention in which markets make massive readjustments, the markets tend to become quiet in the ensuing session or two. Traders know that panicky transactions were made, and prices are at artificial levels. Saner angels realize that initial interventions seldom change the trend; but another intervention can appear at any moment. But the need to game Q3 performance is extremely high. So, traders and money managers will try to push stuff higher today and on Friday. After Q3 performance gaming, and beaucoup short covering, the downtrend could reappear.

Wiser guys want to know if the Fed is vexed by the BoE’s intervention, which contravenes Fed policy. The problems that are lurking and growing will not dissipate on a single BoE intervention. Be careful!

ESZs are+2.50; USZs are -20/32; and the pound is 1.0822 at 20:05 ET.

Expected economic data: Q2 GDP -0.6%, Consumption 1.5%, GDP Price Index 8.9%, Core PCE 4.4%; Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims 1.385m; St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 9:30 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester & ECB’s Lane 13:00 ET, SF Fed Pres Daly 16:45 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4031; 100-day MA: 3979; 150-day MA: 4111; 200-day MA: 4228
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,041; 100-day MA: 31,827; 150-day MA: 33,574; 200-day MA: 33,274

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4739.37 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4180.10 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3848.97 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 3659.82 triggers a sell signal

US Embassy in Moscow tells Americans to leave immediately   https://t.co/SaCcnwYW9d

The Times: Russia probably bombed Nord Stream pipeline with underwater drone, says defence source.  https://t.co/rhrE6SXD9r

At White House conference, Biden appears to search for House Rep. who died last month
“I think she was going to be here,” president said… The president then added “Rep…Jackie, are you here?” while staring out into the audience. “Where’s Jackie?” he added. “I think…she was going to be here.” The “Jackie” appears to be a reference to Rep. Jackie Walorski, an Indiana representative who died last month in a car crash…
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/white-house-conference-biden-appears-call-out-house-rep-who-died-last-month

@KatiePavlich: Big yikes. Biden released a statement about Congresswoman Jackie Walorski when she died in August. How is this not another massive red flag? This is why the WH won’t make Biden’s doctor available for questioning. Just last month Biden officially acknowledged Walorski’s death & ordered flags at half-mast in her honor. A bill renaming a VA hospital after her is on his desk. https://twitter.com/KatiePavlich/status/1575156639203823618

After Joe’s mental malfunction, the WH pulled the plug on the commemorative video for Rep. Walorski.

The Big Guy’s mental lapse was so alarming the regime media peppered WH Press Sec KJP about it.

ABC’s @CeciliaVega: “He said, ‘Jackie, are you here? Where is Jackie? She must not be here.'”
KJP: “No, I totally understand. I just–I just explained. She was on top of mind. You know, this was–what we were able to witness…at this event was…her focus on…food insecurity.”
     CNN’s @Phil_Mattingly: “I’m trying to get my head around the response. [Walorski] was top of mind for [Biden] & her family was…here & that’s what he was thinking about? Why was he looking for her?”
KJP: “I think people can understand…when someone is at top of mind.”…
    @CBSNewsRadio’s @StevenPortnoy: “I’m sorry to do this, but I’m compelled to ask…one more time…the question about Congresswoman Walorski.” KJP: “I’m not sure why. Why? Why one more time?” Portnoy: “Frankly…the memory of [Walorski] & history requires some clarity here.”…
    WashPost’s @MViser: “I think we all…get why [Walorski’s] top of mind. You’ve made that case pretty effectively…[W]hy…does [Biden]t think…she’s living & in the room?” KJP: “I don’t find that confusing. I think many…can speak to [that]…That is not an unusual scenario”…
    CHAOS in the Briefing Room as KJP tries to escape Walorski Q’s w/help from lapdop USA Today reporter…Other reporter: “These moments of confusion are happening w/increasing frequency.” EWTN’s Owen Jensen: “Why don’t you just apologize? Sounds like you’re making excuses.”
https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1575187294667022338

@realDailyWire: Dr. Jill has to direct Biden offstage (in WH garden). He still looks lost.
https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1575151361318166528

Biden says he spoke with Florida governor about Hurricane Ian http://reut.rs/3DWKoIh
Biden also warned oil companies not to use the storm as a pretext to raise gasoline prices…

Ex-Democratic congressman sentenced to prison in yearslong Pennsylvania election fraud scheme
Expelled former Democratic congressman Michael “Ozzie” Myers has been sentenced to 30 months in prison for federal election fraud dating back to 2014, the Justice Department said Tuesday.
    Myers, 79, pleaded guilty in June to conspiracy to deprive voters of civil rights, bribery, obstruction of justice, falsification of voting records, and conspiring to illegally vote in a federal election as part of scams to stuff ballot boxes for certain Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania elections between 2014 and 2018, the DOJ said in a news release…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/politics/michael-ozzie-myers-election-fraud-prison-sentenced/index.html

Government Disclosed Jan. 6 Activities of Five Confidential FBI Sources: Defense Lawyer
The U.S. government has acknowledged for the first time that five FBI confidential informants were involved with the Oath Keepers, but prosecutors failed to disclose that none of the sources provided evidence of guilt, a defense lawyer said on Sept. 26… FBI officials have repeatedly declined in congressional hearings to say whether there were agents or confidential human sources (CHSes) in the crowd when the U.S. Capitol was breached on Jan. 6, 2021…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/government-disclosed-jan-6-activities-five-confidential-fbi-sources-defense-lawyer

@gustavocnn: The water is almost gone from the bay in Tampa. The rotation from #hurricaneian is pulling the water towards the Gulf of Mexico.  https://twitter.com/gustavocnn/status/1575152388935241728

The destruction in southwest Florida from Hurricane Ian is unimaginably horrific. Prayers and best wishes for the people in

Greg Hunter

See you on TOMORROW

HARVEY

Robert Hryniak	2:58 PM (49 minutes ago)
to