SEPT 30/FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR GOLD/SILVER CONTRACTS AT THE COMEX: GOLD CLOSED UP $3.75 TO $1664.35//SILVER CLOSED UP $31 TO $19.07//PLATINUM CLOSED UP 40 CENTS TO $867.30//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $33.55 TO $2182.85//MUST READ: TED BUTLER ON THE MANIPULATION INSIDE THE GOLD/SILVER COMEX//UPDATES ON THE EXPLOSION RE NORDSTEAM 1 AND TWO//RUSSIA ANNEXES THE OBLASTS AND THE WEST RESPONDS//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//PROBLEMS CONTINUE IN THE UK WITH PENSION FUNDS STILL LIQUIDATING//USA CORE PCE (FED’S INDICATOR FOR INFLATION) RED HOT//TWO USA STOCKS CRASH: CARNIVAL CRUISE LINES AND RENT- A -CENTER AND NIKE//UPDATES ON THE AFTER AFFECTS ON HURRICANE IAN AND THE UPCOMING ONSLAUGHT ATTACK ON SOUTH CAROLINA// SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 2000 553 072 H GOLDMAN 3900 104 C MIZUHO 13 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 715 118 H MACQUARIE FUT 173 323 C HSBC 19 323 H HSBC 2929 365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 2 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 48 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 865 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 862 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2418 661 C JP MORGAN 3912 6372 685 C RJ OBRIEN 5 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 9 686 H STONEX FINANCIA 382 690 C ABN AMRO 352 709 C BARCLAYS 7412 709 H BARCLAYS 2383 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 311 800 C MAREX SPEC 97 878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 4 880 C CITIGROUP 3845 905 C ADM 75
TOTAL: 19,828 19,828 MONTH TO DATE: 19,828
JPMORGAN STOPPED
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:
19,828 NOTICES FOR 19,828 OZ //61.67 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,828 contracts for 1,982800 oz (61.67 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 55 NOTICES FILED FOR 275,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 55 : for 275,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $3.75
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01
TONNES FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 31 CENTS
AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF OF 1.013 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 480.917 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 74 CONTRACTS TO 129,783 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.15) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 276 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS WITH THE BANKERS CONTINUALLY ON THE BUY SIDE.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) CONTINUAL SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ / // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –26
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 21 days, total 14,805 contracts: 74.025 million oz OR 3.523 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (705 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 74.025 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 74 WITH OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 175 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// NET SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION OZ .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 249 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.245MILLION OZ..
WE HAD 55 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 275,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3748 CONTRACTS TO 453,488 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED — -576 CONTRACTS.
.
THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.85//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE HAD FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION// SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.102 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //NEW STANDING 66.102 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.85 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 219 OI CONTRACTS 0.681 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3529 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 453,488
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 219 CONTRACTS WITH 3748 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3529 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 357 CONTRACTS OR 1.110 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3529) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3748): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 219 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SMALL ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.102 TONNES. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/5/FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
65,631 CONTRACTS OR 6,563,100 OZ OR 204.13 TONNES 21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3125 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 204.13 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 204.13/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.75% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 74 CONTRACT OI TO 129,783 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 175 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 175 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 101 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 175 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 249 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.245 MILLION OZ
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.82 PTS OR 0.55% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 56.96 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 484.84PTS OR 1.84% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1165//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.1260// /Oil DOWN TO 81.51 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.99 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3748 CONTRACTS TO 453,488 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.85 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3529 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3529EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :3529 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3529 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 219 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3529LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3748 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL DROP IN PRICE OF GOLD $0.85. WE HAD OUR CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION//WE HAD SPEC SHORT DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER WITH BANKERS TAKING THE BUY SIDE, IT IS BECOMING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR OUR SHORTERS. THUS, WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS CONTINUING TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE HUGELY LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS ONCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN TO ANNIHILATE THE SPECS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT (66.099),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 66.099 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $0.85) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 357 CONTRACTS // WE HAVE REGISTERED A SMALL LOSS OF 249 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SOCT. (66.099 TONNES)…
WE HAD -576 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 219 CONTRACTS OR 21,900 OZ OR 0.681TONNES
Estimated gold volume 165,761/// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 217,443/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 30
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
19,828 notices 1,982,800 61.67 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz
(5,000 kilobars)
total: 160,755.000 oz
total in tonnes: 5.000 tonnes
Adjustments: 1
Brinks: dealer to customer; 6462.351 0z
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT we have an oi of 21,252 contracts having LOST 1345 contracts .
Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this active delivery month of October is as follows:
21,251 notices filed x 100 oz per notice = 2,125,100 oz or 66.099 tonnes
This is a huge delivery for a generally poor delivery month.
November GAINED 643 contracts to stand at 2091
December LOST 4427 contracts DOWN to 381,375
We had 19,828 notice(s) filed today for 1,982,800 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 3912 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 19,828 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6372 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,828) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (OCT 21,251 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 19,828 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,125,100 OZ OR 66.099 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:
No of notices filed so far (19,828) x 100 oz+ (21,252) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19,828} x 100 oz} which equals 2,125,100 oz standing OR 66.099 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 66.099 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)
WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 55 x 5,000 oz = 275,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(316) and the number of notices served upon today 55 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 55 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (316) – number of notices served upon today (55) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 1,580,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES
SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES
SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES
SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//
SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES
AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 941.15 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///
SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 480.917 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
Hurricane Cleanup Will Stimulate The Economy? Not So Fast!
If the Keynesians are right, Hurricane Ian will create an economic boom here in Florida. After all, breaking windows creates demand and that stimulates the economy. And after this massive hurricane cut through Florida, there were a lot of broken windows — and much worse.
Now, you might be wondering what in the world I’m talking about. How does breaking windows create an economic boom?
I’m referring to the “broken window fallacy” first explained by French economist Frédéric Bastiat. And at some point in the next few weeks, more than one economist will try to put a positive spin on the destruction by claiming it will create economic activity. This is yet another common fallacy we run into whenever their is a disaster, right along with the hand-wringing over price gouging.
Imagine that somebody throws a rock through a shop window. Many economists will argue that’s good for the economy because the shop owner will have to pay the window fixer to repair the window. As Bastiat put it in his essay, “If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation: ‘It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?’
You see, the shopowner’s misfortune is the glass fixer’s good luck.
With the money he makes fixing the window, the glazier can go buy a new suit. The tailor will then have money in his pocket to go to a baseball game. The owner of the baseball team benefits from another fan in the seats, and on and on it goes. The broken window led to a string of economic transactions. As Bastiat put it, the careless child “spurred trade to the amount of six francs.”
On the surface, it does seem as if the broken window led to a small economic boom. But when you dig below the surface, it becomes clear that the boom is a mirage.
But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, ‘Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen.’”
What have we missed?
We don’t see the money that was never spent.
If the shopkeeper hadn’t had to spend 6 francs on a new window, he would have bought a pair of shoes. Now, that transaction won’t happen and the cobbler won’t receive that income. As a result, the cobbler will have to postpone buying a new book for his library.
Bastiat sums it up this way.
Let us take a view of industry in general, as affected by this circumstance. The window being broken, the glazier’s trade is encouraged to the amount of six francs: this is that which is seen.
“If the window had not been broken, the shoemaker’s trade (or some other) would have been encouraged to the amount of six francs: this is that which is not seen.”
A good economist always tried to account for the unseen. But sadly, most people aren’t good economists — and that includes a lot of economists.
It should be clear breaking a window does not make society better off. It becomes even more clear when you magnify the destruction to the level produced by Hurricane Ian. Yes, billions will be spent to repair and clean up. Roofers, builders and others will make a lot of money. But you have to stop and consider the cost to others. I doubt anybody in Ft. Meyers will claim they’re better off because their house lost a roof or filled up with water. And just stop and imagine whould would have been done with those billions had the hurricane never materialized.
Destruction isn’t progress. This is just silly, Keynesian claptrap.
Never forget the unseen.
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
end
END
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Your weekend reading material
Alasdair Macleod on the failure of the Bank of England….
Alasdair Macleod: Kwarteng and a job half done
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-29 10:53Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, September 29, 2022
Following the new Kwarteng/Truss economic policies revealed in last week’s mini budget for the United Kingdom, the widespread condemnation is a reflex Keynesian response from a world that has become hostage to erroneous economic and monetary groupthink in its major institutions.
Kwarteng has jogged the global statist establishment out of its complacent drift into totalitarianism. His is a wake-up call to markets everywhere, a catalyst for the unwinding of accumulated market distortions. Mounting criticism from all quarters is shooting the messenger, but the message has been delivered.
In one important respect, the criticism is valid. Kwarteng must address the budget deficit urgently by taking steps to reduce the size of the state as a proportion of the total economy. Only then can inflation be conquered and the pound stabilise. In another respect, the new policy is sensible: By plotting its own free market/Hayekian course, Britain can emerge out of the crisis sooner than other nations stuck in the current democratic-socialist paradigm.
If we assume that Kwarteng does address the size of the state and eliminate budget deficits as early as practically possible, he will have a practical plan for a post-crisis Britain. Economic recovery can than happen sooner rather than later, a major consideration given that the next general election is in a little over two years.
It is too late to avoid the gathering global crisis, the financial consequences of which are bound to devolve in large measure on London’s financial centre. Indeed, Kwarteng’s wake-up call may be the trigger for a financial avalanche. But what he is unlikely to realise is that the gathering crisis is so severe that even the continued existence of fiat currencies will be threatened, with the euro and sterling being particularly vulnerable.
In this article I also comment on the Bank of England’s failure as an institution, whose future role in monetary affairs should be strictly curtailed. And I advocate the abandonment of all trade tariffs, with the possible exception of agriculture for political reasons. These are fundamental reforms which must accompany free market policies.
We must proceed with our commentary ignoring the existential threat to currencies if it is to be relevant to the government’s economic policies and their global impact. …
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-29 11:02 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Julie Zhu Reuters Thursday, September 29, 2022
HONG KONG — China’s central bank has asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars for the local unit in offshore markets as it steps up efforts to stem the yuan’s descent, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.
State banks were told to ask their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review their holdings of the offshore yuan and ensure U.S. dollar reserves are ready to be deployed, three of the sources, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.
The simultaneous selling of dollars and buying of yuan could put a floor under the Chinese currency, which has lost more than 11% to the dollar so far this year and looks set for its biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified its official and market rates.
The UK’s crisis of confidence was years in the making
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-29 11:24Section: Daily Dispatches
By Philip Aldrick, Libby Cherry, and David Goodman Bloomberg News via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California Thursday, September 29, 2022
Britain is in a self-inflicted financial crisis, years in the making, that threatens to accelerate the economy’s dive into recession — and the country’s new prime minister is coming under intense pressure to blink.
In the week since the government unveiled the biggest tax cuts since 1972 with scant detail of how they will be financed, the pound has crashed to its lowest-ever level against the dollar, the cost of insuring British government debt against the risk of default has soared to the highest since 2016, and the Bank of England has been forced to intervene amid concerns about the nation’s pension funds.
What happens next will determine just how deep the looming recession proves. Central to that question is whether Liz Truss’s three-week old administration can restore its credibility with investors.
Friday’s mini-budget has become a flashpoint for not just investors’ short-term concerns about unfunded tax cuts at a time when inflation is running close to a four-decade high, or the Bank of England’s failure to contain price growth. It has given sharp focus to their long-held fears about Britain, its current-account deficit, its fractious relationship with its closest trading partner and, above all, a mistrust of what successive politicians promise. …
I have been pointing out to you for the past 6 months, large hedge funds going short while the bankers are going long
Butler explains it beautifully
(Ted Butler)
Ted Butler: The monetary metals bear trap: Is it finally set?
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-29 20:05Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ted Butler SilverSeek.com Thursday, September 29, 2022
What has been occurring in the gold and silver markets is nothing short of extraordinary. In the face of all objective and measurable conditions in the physical markets pointing to higher prices, instead prices have collapsed over the past six months by amounts comparable to the sharpest selloffs in history. From the price top of March 8, gold has fallen as much as $450 (22%), while silver has fallen by as much as $10 (36%) in recent dealings
Yet all visible signs point to extreme physical tightness, the likes of which I have never seen, in everything from the most persistent retail premiums in silver in history, to surging wholesale physical demand in India and China — all with no notable increase in actual supply.
To an extent never witnessed before, the past six months have featured the sharpest divergence between surging physical demand and a steep and highly counterintuitive historical price collapse. To any believer in the free market law of supply and demand, it has been the strangest (and most trying) time ever — or at least the strangest time in my near 50-year experience. …
What has been occurring in the gold and silver markets is nothing short of extraordinary. In the face of all objective and measurable conditions in the physical markets pointing to higher prices, instead prices have collapsed over the past six months by amounts comparable to the sharpest selloffs in history. From the price top of March 8, gold has fallen as much as $450 (22%), while silver has fallen by as much as $10 (36%) in recent dealings.
Yet, all visible signs point to extreme physical tightness, the likes of which I have never seen, in everything from the most persistent retail premiums in silver in history, to surging wholesale physical demand in India and China – all with no notable increase in actual supply. To an extent never witnessed before, the past six months have featured the sharpest divergence between surging physical demand and a steep and highly-counterintuitive historical price collapse. To any believer in the free market law of supply and demand, it has been the strangest (and most trying) time ever – or at least the strangest time in my near 50-year experience.
Of course, surging physical silver and gold demand and collapsing prices can’t occur for no reason and finding the reason is the responsibility of anyone interested in gold and silver. In fact, there is only one possible reason to explain the conundrum of surging demand and physical tightness and sharply lower prices and it is the same reason I have advanced for more than 35 years – an ongoing price manipulation on the COMEX. While I am gratified that more observers than ever seem to have come to grasp the basics of the long-term COMEX price manipulation; somewhat ironically, we appear to have reached (or are extremely close) the termination point of the long-running price manipulation, regardless of public awareness.
The key feature of the four decades-old COMEX price manipulation has been the ability of a tight-knit group of large traders, classified as commercials (mostly banks), to sell future contracts short in unlimited quantities to cap and contain silver and gold prices. This resulted in COMEX silver having the largest concentrated short position of any commodity for 40 years when compared to actual world production. A key component of the manipulative unlimited short selling was the refusal of the commercial short sellers to ever buy back and cover short positions on rising prices – only when prices fell. This was the key to absolute price control.
Limited (by choice) to only buying back short positions on lower prices (otherwise prices would explode higher), the only way for the COMEX commercial shorts to buyback and cover the maximum number of short contracts was to create the price environment most suited to getting other large COMEX traders to sell short and replace the commercial shorts. Fortunately for the commercial traders, there existed such a group of traders, classified as the managed money traders, willing to sell a large (but not unlimited) number of short contracts under the right technical conditions. The “right” technical conditions were, essentially, steadily falling prices and this was right up the commercials’ alley, since they had sufficient means of dictating prices (think spoofing).
Therefore, maximum commercial short-covering could only be met with maximum managed money short selling under a price selloff that was epic in both time and scope. The selloff had to be both pronounced, but also consistent and of such duration so as to entice the managed money traders to fully-load up on the short side. A selloff that could be termed the “mother of all selloffs” (as I recently termed it). It appears to me that the six-month selloff in COMEX gold and silver from the top on March 8 (the day of the LME nickel default), when gold hit its all-time high of $2080 and silver hit $27.50, fully-qualifies as the epic selloff required to induce maximum managed money shorting and maximum commercial short covering. Maybe there’s a bit more to go, but not much, in my opinion.
Since March 8, the total commercial net short position in gold has declined by more than 230,000 contracts (23 million oz) and by as much as 70,000 net contracts (350 million oz) in COMEX silver, among the largest reductions in history. Even more compelling is that the commercial concentrated short positions have declined, proportionately, even more, to the lowest levels in history. If you are looking for the reason explaining how gold and silver prices could decline as much as they have over the past six months, in the face of perhaps the strongest physical demand ever seen, then look no further. The COMEX commercials set out to induce the maximum amount of managed money selling (so that the commercial could buy) and succeeded masterfully. Now what?
Now we are at or extremely close to the point of maximum bullishness, where prices are quite capable of exploding higher in a manner none of us have ever really witnessed. Because there has been so much managed money shorting in gold and silver and because prices are so far below the key moving averages (particularly in gold), these traders know full-well that they will need to buy back the bulk of their short positions long before all the key moving averages are penetrated to the upside – otherwise the money risk is just too great, considering the size of the managed money short positions, to wait until all the key moving averages (the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages) are upwardly penetrated. We’ve seen this in silver recently, as $2 rallies resulted in significant short covering before prices were then rigged lower and the manged money shorts were enticed back in.
I suppose that it’s always possible for even more managed money shorting on even lower prices, or that the collusive commercials may toy a bit more with the managed money shorts (as they have in silver), letting a number out on a quick pop up in price, only to rig prices lower to bring those who bought back, right back onto the short side, but these short-term price wiggles are beyond prediction (at least for me). The important point is to not get hung up on the daily price gyrations at this point and consider the whole picture – which is bullish beyond words.
Thus, the stage has been set for a bear trap of epic proportions in gold and silver. For those unfamiliar with the term, here’s a quick description of the set up –
It goes without saying that the key to the next big move to the upside is entirely dependent on whether the former big commercial shorts in COMEX gold and silver add aggressively to new short positions as the rally unfolds. That goes hand-in-hand with the manipulation premise I have alleged for 35 years. While no one knows for sure what these big former commercial shorts will do, I’ve always held it generally doesn’t matter much in terms of prediction, as there is generally ample warning of what they are doing in the ongoing COT reports. But in addition to that, there is now the case that the physical market is so tight as to be a discouragement against renewed big commercial short selling. Plus, there’s another new factor arguing against aggressive short selling by the big commercial traders that I’m not sure if I’ve covered previously.
That additional factor is the cumulative weight on the big banks brought about by years of settlements and fines and convictions for manipulating gold and silver prices, largely as result of spoofing illegalities. Yesterday’s announcement of yet another major regulatory settlement involving unrecorded conversations between bank traders. Left out of the announcement was that the unrecorded conversations were designed to cheat other market participants and further proof of collusion – otherwise why weren’t they recorded?
It’s hard to come up with the name of single bank that hasn’t settled or been fined for such violations over the past several years, often accompanied by deferred criminal prosecution agreements – violation of which is even more serious. The fines and agreements start with the master precious metals criminal, JPMorgan, and extend from there. Of course, JPM is sitting pretty, having accumulated at least a billion oz of physical silver and upwards of 30 million oz of physical gold over a decade of stealth acquisition.
There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the US regulators (the CFTC and Justice Dept) stopped way short of charging JPMorgan and the other banks with the type of precious metals manipulation that would have put them out of business and instead stuck to spoofing and now improper communication charges, which allowed the banks to stay in business. Then again, it’s not possible that the too-lenient regulatory findings left the banks in a stronger position to continue the decades-old COMEX manipulation. Looking at the stock prices for some of the foreign banks which settled and paid fines for precious metals manipulation on the COMEX, they are basket cases.
My point is that the previous fines, settlements and agreements have made it even more unlikely for the crooked banks to operate as they have in the past and increase the likelihood that the big former commercial shorts will stand aside and not add to shorts on the next rally. Of course, time will tell, but I doubt more than ever that the former big commercial shorts will have the gall to re-short aggressively on the coming rise in prices and the commercial bear trap of the managed money shorts looks complete or nearly so.
Ted Butler
September 29, 2022
END
A good commentary from Frank Holmes showing that gold always is a great store of value
(Frank Holmes/GATA)
Frank Holmes: Gold has been a great store of value amid the ‘everything selloff’
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-29 21:55Section: Daily Dispatches
By Frank Holmes U.S. Global Investors, San Antonio, Texas Wednesday, September 28, 2022
“Gold is no longer a safe haven.”
“Gold isn’t an effective hedge against inflation.”
“Gold is dead.”
You may have heard and read these comments, and others like it, numerous times over the course of the recent “everything selloff.” This is staggeringly shortsighted to me. Gold is down only around 9.5% for the year despite surging bond yields and despite the U.S. dollar being at its strongest level ever relative to other major currencies.
Given these incredible headwinds, you would expect gold to have lost far more of its value than it has. But compared to other assets, from stocks to bonds to digital currencies, the yellow metal has been remarkably resilient.
And that’s gold priced in the U.S. dollar. When we price it in other currencies, gold has done even better, since many currencies have declined significantly in value relative to the greenback. This week the British pound fell to an all-time low against the dollar, as did the Chinese renminbi.
Of the various gold prices shown in the chart below, only two — those priced in the dollar and Brazilian real — were negative for the year as of September 27. The others, including gold priced in the Canadian dollar, were positive. …
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1165
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1260
SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 16.82 PTS OR 0.55%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP56.96 PTS OR 0.33%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 484.84 PTS OR 1.84%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 112.51/Euro RISES TO 0.9754
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.238/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.55/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP -// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.071%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.51%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.25%…** DANGEROUS
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.81//
3j Gold at $1663.50//silver at: 18.96 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2 AND 34/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 54.86//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.55DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9807–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9567well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.696 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.635 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,55…GETTTING DANGEROUS
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
Bounce In Futures Fizzles As Dollar Surge Returns
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 08:10 AM
If yesterday markets made little sense, when the dollar and yields slumped yet stocks and other risk assets tumbled alongside them in a puzzling reversal of traditional risk relationships (a move which was likely precipitated by the plunge in AAPL and KMX), today things are a bit more logical with the dollar initially extending its slide helping futures rise to session highs just below 3,700, before the dollar surged just after 5am as sterling tumbled after Bloomberg reported that Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it was sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent which has pushed cable briefly above 1.12 overnight, wiping out a week’s worth of losses. As a result, after rising as much as 0.8%, S&P futures were flat, up just 0.1%, the same as Nasdaq futures. Government bonds rallied across Europe and the US, as the dollar strengthened after reversing its earlier loss.
In premarket trading, Nike shares fall 10% after the sportswear giant cut its margin outlook for the year while reporting surging inventory, fueling worries over consumers’ ability to spend as inflation takes a toll. Micron shares rose 3% in premarket trading, after analysts said the ongoing inventory correction was only a short-term hurdle and that the bottom is near, a potential relief for semiconductor stocks that have taken a beating this year. Amylyx Pharmaceuticals’s (AMLX US) shares soared as much as 13% in US premarket trading after winning FDA approval for its Relyvrio drug, for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in adults. Analysts said they expected the drug to see a strong launch given demand from patients. Xos jumped 6.3% in extended trading after delivering 13 battery-electric vehicles to FedEx.
Thursday’s bruising session took the S&P 500 down 2% to the lowest in almost two years and the Nasdaq 100 tumbling almost 4%. The S&P 500 Index has dropped on seven of the past 8 days, and is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-2009 and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index for the first time in 20 years. Fears of global recession are growing by the day as the threat of higher rates saps growth and as the Fed confirms with every speech that not even a recession will stop it. The case of the UK shows how faultlines between government and central bank policy on tackling inflation can erupt into a crisis. Hopes evaporated that the British government would succumb to pressure to back down from tax cuts that brought the pound to the edge of dollar parity.
“Today, everything is just oversold so you are seeing a rebound,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. “We are closer to bottoms and sentiment is so negative the downside is becoming more limited.”
Elsewhere, Global equity funds garnered inflows of $7.6 billion in the week to Sept. 28, according to data compiled by EPFR Global. Bonds had $13.7 billion of outflows in the week, while $8.9 billion flowed into US stocks, the data showed.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.9%. Real estate, energy and retailers are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
Krones shares rose as much as 2.7% to their highest intra-day level since Feb. 2022, after HSBC increased the German machinery and equipment company’s price target to EU102
Clariant shares rally by the most intraday since mid-May after Credit Suisse raises to outperform, partly as it expects Clariant’s new management team to boost performance
ABN Amro jumped as much as 6.3% after Goldman Sachs raised the stock to buy from neutral, citing its gearing toward higher interest rates, increasing estimates on net interest income
Zealand Pharma rise as much as 35%, the most on record, after the company announced positive data from its phase 3 trial of glepaglutide to treat patients with short bowel syndrome
Sinch shares rise as much as 24% after SoftBank sold its entire stake in Sinch AB following a share price collapse of more than 90% in the Swedish cloud-based platform provider
Adidas and Puma drop as their US peer Nike slumped in late trading Thursday after it said inventory buildup forced it to push through margin-busting discounts
Hurricane Energy shares drop as much as 5.6% after 1H earnings; Canaccord Genuity notes the results did not surprise, and flags lack of regulatory reassurance on gas-management approvals
Fingerprint Cards shares drop as much as 17% after saying it is raising fresh capital in order to strengthen the balance sheet and to address a forecasted covenant breach
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell again, putting the regional benchmark on course for its worst monthly performance since 2008, as a selloff spurred by concerns over higher interest rates and a global recession deepened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5% after earlier falling as much as 1% on Friday. Still down over 12% this month, the gauge has trailed global peers and is set to cap a seventh straight week of declines. That matches its losing streak from September 2015, which was the longest since 2011. Equities in Japan, which has the highest weight in the Asia index, were among the biggest losers on Friday, with the Topix falling 1.8%. Consumer discretionary and industrials were the worst sectors, while Chinese tech shares listed in Hong Kong also fell. READ: China Shares Plunge to Lowest Valuation on Record in Hong Kong Global funds have pulled almost $10 billion from Asian emerging-market stocks excluding China this month, as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed after Federal Reserve officials ramped up their rate-hike rhetoric. Taiwan’s tech-heavy market has suffered the bulk of the outflow from Asia. Its regulators tightened short selling rules as shares extended their slide.
“I think emerging markets as a whole are still going to have a pretty difficult six months until the Fed rate peaks,” Louis Lau, a fund manager at Brandes Investment Partners, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. How much damage is a strong dollar causing? That’s the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. It’s brief and we don’t collect your name or any contact information. Please click here to share your views. The turmoil in the UK has been another source of market volatility for Asia investors, who continue to grapple with the fallout from strict lockdowns in China, the region’s biggest economy. “There’s been some correlation (between risk assets and sterling) recently,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA. Overall, “the theme hasn’t changed. The scenario that the Fed will cut rates next year is breaking down. I think we could see further downside in stock prices towards November,” he said. Stocks in India gained after the central bank raised the benchmark rate by an expected 50 basis points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 4% this week and on course for its lowest close since April 2020
Japanese equities extended declines on Friday as a global market rout deepened, capping its worst month since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The Topix Index fell 1.8% to 1,835.94 as of market close Tokyo time, taking declines in September to 6.5%. The Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,937.21. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 4.2%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 299 rose and 1,823 fell, while 47 were unchanged. Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to rein in high inflation. “There are concerns that the economy will slow from further rate hikes while inflation doesn’t stop,” said Kenji Ueno, a portfolio manager at Sompo Asset Management.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.2% to close at 6,474.20, dragged by banks and industrials, after another plunge on Wall Street as the prospect of higher interest rates and turmoil in Europe stoked fears of global recession. The benchmark notched its third-straight week of losses. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.2% to 11,065.71
Stocks in India outperformed Asian peers after the Reserve Bank of India raised borrowing costs and exuded confidence to tackle inflation without any major impact to its growth projections. The S&P BSE Sensex added 1.8% to 57,426.92, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by 1.6% as the indexes posted their biggest single-day jump since Aug. 30. Despite the rally, the key gauges fell more than 1% each for the week and over 3% for the month, their biggest decline since June. India’s central bank raised its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, matching the expectations of most economists. The RBI trimmed the economic growth outlook for the financial year ending March to 7% while retaining it 6.7% forecast for inflation. The increase in the benchmark interest rate “mainly supports stocks of financial companies, which have been seeing strong credit growth,” said Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Securities.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded after sliding initially, as cable tumbled when it emerged that Liz Truss is not backtracking on its massive fiscal easing. Iniitlally, the pound advanced a fourth day, to briefly trade above $1.12, fully reversing the moves since last Friday, however it then tumbled, wiping out all gains after Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it’s sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent. Notable data: U.K. 2Q final GDP rises 0.2% q/q versus preliminary -0.1%. The Aussie and kiwi crept higher, but are still set for their biggest monthly declines since April as rising Fed interest rates and fears of a global economic slowdown sap demand for risk assets
In rates, Treasuries advanced, 10-year yield dropping 8bps while bunds 10-year yield drops 6bps to 2.11%. Treasury 10-year yields around 3.685%, richer by 10bp on the day — largest moves seen in UK front-end where 2-year yields are richer by 25bp on the day as BOE tightening premium fades out of interest-rate swaps. Short-end UK bonds surged amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals, while the pound regained its budget-shock losses. US session focus is on PCE data and host of Federal Reserve speakers while month end may add some support into long end of the curve. Long end of the Treasuries curve may find additional month-end related buying support over the session; Bloomberg index projects 0.07yr Treasury extension for October. Gilts rallied, with short-end bonds leading gains as traders trimmed BOE tightening bets amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals. Meanwhile in Japan, JGBs gained after the BOJ boosted purchases for maturities covering the benchmark 10-year zone. The Bank of Japan will buy more bonds with maturities of at least five years in the October-December period, according to a statement from the central bank
In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.3% to near $82.26. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $1,671/oz.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged and in very tight ranges of circa. USD 400 and as such well within the week’s existing parameters
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 3,686.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 387.83
MXAP down 0.5% to 139.25
MXAPJ little changed at 453.72
Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,937.21
Topix down 1.8% to 1,835.94
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 17,222.83
Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
Sensex up 2.0% to 57,539.66
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 6,474.20
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,155.49
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $89.55/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,671.56
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.52% to 111.67
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.10%
Euro up 0.3% to $0.9840
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Prime Minister Liz Truss is under pressure to cut spending on the same scale as George Osborne’s infamous austerity drive of 2010 in order to stabilize the UK public finances and win back the confidence of investors
Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng are holding talks Friday with the UK government’s fiscal watchdog, amid intense criticism over their unfunded tax cuts that roiled markets
A dash for cash among sterling investors after market turmoil sparked by pension fund margin calls is coming at a bad time, according to an M&G Investments executive
The ECB shouldn’t let concerns about its profitability obstruct decision-making over monetary policy, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus
The SNB trimmed its foreign-exchange portfolio in the second quarter as the franc gyrated against the euro before rising above parity for the first time since 2015. The central bank sold 5 million francs ($5.1 million) worth of foreign currencies in the three months through June
Norway’s central bank will increase its purchases of foreign currency to 4.3 billion kroner ($400 million) a day in October from 3.5 billion in September as it deposits energy revenues into the $1.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
Japan’s factory output expanded by 2.7% in August from July, according to the economy ministry Friday, beating analysts’ 0.2% forecast. The output of semiconductor and flat-panel making equipment hit its highest level in data going back to 2003, as the effect of lockdowns in China abated
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed the government Friday to come up with an economic stimulus package by the end of October to help mitigate the impact of inflation, as economists warned against over-sized spending
China’s factory activity continued to struggle in September, while services slowed, as the country’s economic recovery was challenged by lockdowns in major cities and an ongoing property market downturn. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 from 49.4 in August
An organization formed by China’s biggest foreign- exchange traders asked banks to trade the currency at levels closer to the central bank’s fixing at the market open, according to people familiar with the matter
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower after the negative performance across global peers amid inflationary headwinds and with risk appetite subdued heading quarter-end, while the region also digested mixed Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 declined amid weakness across most sectors and with tech the notable underperformer after the recent upside in yields and with Meta the latest major industry player to announce a hiring freeze. Nikkei 225 was pressured and fell below the 26,000 level with better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data releases overshadowed by the broad risk aversion. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after the PBoC conducted its largest weekly cash injection in more than 32 months ahead of the week-long closure in the mainland, while participants also digested mixed PMI data in which Official Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansion, but Non-Manufacturing and Composite PMIs slowed and Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at a wider contraction. NIFTY eventually notched mild gains in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision in which it hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90% as expected via 5-1 split and with the central bank refraining from any major hawkish surprises.
Top Asian News
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they want to compile an extra budget swiftly after the economic package in late October, while they will consider further support for hard-hit consumers and businesses in view of higher energy and food prices, as well as consider steps to promote wage hikes, according to Reuters.
Chinese Finance Ministry is to offer a tax refund for people who sell their homes and repurchases new ones by the end of 2023; additionally, China has told banks to provide USD 85bln in property funding by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.4); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.6 vs Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.6)
Chinese Composite PMI (Sep) 50.9 (Prev. 51.7)
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 48.1 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5)
Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Aug P) 2.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%); Retail Sales YY (Aug) 4.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.4%)
European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end. Sectors are firmer across the board with Real Estate outperforming peers in what has been a tough week for the UK property market. Stateside, futures are also attempting to recover from yesterday’s losses which saw a tough session for the tech sector after Apple shed the best part of 5%.
Top European News
UK OBR Chair Hughes says a statement will be released today after the meeting with UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng. On this, the UK Treasury has not sought to accelerate watchdog’s economic forecast, according to Bloomberg. Reminder, UK PM Truss to conduct emergency talks with the OBR on Friday after failing to calm markets, according to the Guardian.
UK cross-party MPs in the Treasury Select Committee called for Chancellor Kwarteng to release a full economic forecast from the OBR by end of October, according to Sky News.
UK PM Truss has confirmed she will attend next week’s European Political Community summit, via BBC.
Reports that technical level discussions between the UK and EU could resume as soon as next week, via BBC’s Parker; writing, that there has been a ‘warmer’ tone in recent weeks, some believe pressure from the US on the UK has had influence.
German VDMA, survey of members: majority expect nominal sales growth in 2022 and 2023.
FX
GBP’s revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected, a move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels.
USD is firmer overall but continues to retreat from YTD peaks, though the DXY is seemingly drawn to the 112.00 area.
Yuan derived further, fleeting, support from reports the FX body has asked banks to trade closer to the onshore fixing.
Elsewhere, FX peers are under modest pressure but more contained vs USD; EUR unfased by a record EZ flash CPI print of 10.0%.
Fixed Income
Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence.
Gilts lifted, but the 10yr yield remains above 4.0% ahead of the OBR statement.
Stateside, USTs are equally buoyed ahead of a packed PM agenda include PCE Price Index and Fed speak.
Commodities
The broader commodity market is benefitting from a pullback in the USD coupled with a broader risk appetite.
Metals are buoyed by the recent pullback in the Dollar with spot gold edging above its 10 DMA (USD 1,656.72/oz) and towards the USD 1,680/oz mark which coincides with the yellow metal’s 21DMA (USD 1,680.56/oz) and 200WMA (USD 1,680.20/oz).
Base metals are also firmer across the board with 3M LME copper back above the USD 7,500/t mark, whilst nickel and aluminium outperform on the exchange.
Central Banks
China loosened FX restrictions in response to the Fed rate hike and the yuan’s fall over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter cited by FT.
China’s FX body is reportedly asking banks to trade the Yuan closer to the PBoC fixing, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC injected CNY 128bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 58bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 184bln net daily injection and a net CNY 868bln weekly injection.
RBI hiked Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90%, as expected, via 5-1 vote and the Standing Deposit Facility was adjusted to 5.65%. RBI Governor Das said MPC is to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation and that the persistence of high inflation necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation. However, Das noted that the Indian economy continues to be resilient with economic activity stable and overall monetary and liquidity conditions still remain accommodative, while Real GDP growth forecast for 2022/23 was revised lower to 7.0% from 7.2% and 2022/23 CPI was seen at 6.7%.
RBI is reportedly encouraging state-run refiners to reduce USD buying in the spot market; asking to lean on USD 9bln credit line instead, according to Reuters sources.
BoE was reportedly warned about a looming catastrophe in the pensions sector within the next 5 years before it was forced to intervene to prevent a market collapse, according to The Telegraph.
Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said a downshift in economic activity and labour is needed to bring down inflation and additional rate increases are necessary and appropriate. Daly also stated that a myriad of risks narrows the path to a smooth landing but does not close it, while she added they have gotten rates to neutral and expect to raise rates further in coming meetings and early next year.
Norges Bank will purchase FX equivalent to NOK 4.3bln/day in October (3.5bln in September); reflecting an increase in projected NOK revenues from petroleum activity.
Geopolitics
Russian President Putin signed decrees recognising occupied Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent territories which is an intermediate step before the regions are formally incorporated into Russia, according to Reuters.
** Russia’s Kremlin says strikes against the new territories incorporated into Russia will be considered an act of aggression against Russia**; says Ukraine has shown no willingness to negotiate, via Reuters.
Russia’s Spy Chief says they have material which show a Western role in Nord Stream incidents, via Ifx.
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry says their Ministers and Azerbaijani counterparts will meet in Geneva on October 2nd, via AJA Breaking.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Aug. Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
Aug. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
Aug. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
Aug. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
Aug. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
Aug. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6%
Aug. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.3%
09:45: Sept. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 51.8, prior 52.2
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 58.9, prior 58.9
U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.5, prior 59.5
U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 59.9, prior 59.9
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
Central Bank Speakers
08:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Chamber of Commerce Event
09:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability
11:00: Fed’s Bowman Discusses Large Bank Supervision
12:30: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the Drivers of Inflation
16:15: Williams Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we arrive at the end of a tumultuous month in financial markets, there’s been little sign of respite for investors over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-2.11%) reversing the previous day’s gains to close at a 21-month low. There were a number of factors behind the latest selloff, but fears of further rate hikes were prominent after the US weekly initial jobless claims showed that the labour market was still in decent shape, whilst the PCE inflation readings for Q2 were revised higher as well. That came alongside fresh signals of inflationary pressures in Europe, where German inflation in September moved into double-digits for the first time in over 70 years. Thanks to some hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials on top of that, the result was that the synchronised selloff for equities and bonds continued. In fact, barring a massive turnaround today, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 are on course for their third consecutive quarterly decline, which is the first time that’s happened to either index since the financial crisis.
We’ll come to some of that below, but here in the UK there were signs that the market turmoil was beginning to stabilise slightly relative to earlier in the week. For instance, sterling (+2.09%) strengthened against the US Dollar for a third consecutive session, moving back above $1.10 for the first time since last Friday when the mini-budget was announced, and at a couple of points overnight was very briefly trading above $1.12. Indeed, it was the strongest-performing G10 currency on the day, so this wasn’t simply a case of dollar weakness. In the meantime, investors moved again to lower the chances of an emergency inter-meeting hike from the Bank of England, instead looking ahead to the next scheduled MPC meeting on November 3. That followed a speech from BoE Chief Economist Pill, in which he said “it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the fiscal easing announced last week will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.”
However, gilts continued to struggle yesterday following the massive Wednesday rally after the BoE’s intervention. Yields on 10yr gilts were up by +13.0bps by the close, a larger increase than for German bunds (+6.4bps) or French OATs (+8.0bps). Furthermore, the spread on the UK’s 5yr credit default swaps closed at its highest level since 2013, so there are still plenty of signs of investor jitters. That came as the government showed no signs of U-turning on their programme of tax cuts, with Prime Minister Truss saying “I’m very clear the government has done the right thing”. It’s also worth noting that one factor seen as supporting sterling overnight was growing speculation that Truss might come under political pressure to reverse course on the fiscal announcements, particularly after a YouGov poll gave the opposition Labour Party a 33-point lead, which is its largest in any poll since the late-1990s. We also heard from the Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, who tweeted that Chancellor Kwarteng should bring forward the November 23 statement on his medium-term fiscal plan and publish the independent OBR forecast as soon as possible.
Away from the UK, the broader selloff in financial markets resumed yesterday as investors priced in a more hawkish response from central banks over the months ahead. In the US, that followed a fresh round of data that was collectively seen as offering the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. First, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to a 5-month low of 193k over the week ending September 24. That was beneath the 215k reading expected, and the previous week was also revised down by -4k. Nor was this just a blip either, as the 4-week moving average is now at its lowest level since late May as well. In the meantime, we had an upward revision to core PCE in Q2, taking the rate up by three-tenths to an annualised +4.7%.
Those data releases came alongside some pretty hawkish Fed rhetoric, with Cleveland Fed President Mester saying that a recession wouldn’t stop the Fed from raising rates. And in turn, that led markets to price in a more aggressive Fed reaction, with the terminal rate expected in March 2023 up by +3.0bps on the day. Incidentally, we saw yet further signs that the Fed’s tightening was having an effect on the real economy, with Freddie Mac’s mortgage market survey showing that the average 30-year fixed rate had risen to 6.70%, which is their highest level since 2007. The more hawkish developments were reflected in US Treasury yields too, particularly at the front end, with yields on 2yr Treasuries up +5.8bps to 4.19%, and those on 10yr Treasuries up +5.4bps to 3.79%. Overnight in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs are fairly stable as we go press, seeing a small +0.3bps rise, whilst those on 2yr Treasuries are up +1.8bps to 4.21%.
Europe got a fresh reminder about inflation as well yesterday, after the German CPI release for September came in well above expectations. Using the EU-harmonised measure, inflation rose to +10.9% (vs. +10.2% expected), which marks the first time since 1951 that German inflation has been running in double-digits. Earlier in the day, the German government separately announced that they’d be borrowing another €200bn to cap gas prices, with the previously planned consumer levy not going ahead. Looking forward, it’ll be worth looking out for the flash CPI release for the entire Euro Area today at 10am London time, where the consensus is expecting we’ll see the highest inflation since the formation of the single currency. That would keep the pressure on the ECB, and markets are continuing to price in another 75bps hike as the most likely outcome at the October meeting.
With investors digesting the prospect of continued hawkishness from central banks, equities lost further ground over yesterday’s session. The S&P 500 fell -2.11%, meaning the index is now down by nearly a quarter (-24.10%) since its closing peak in early January. The declines were incredibly broad-based across sectors, but interest-sensitive tech stocks struggled in particular, with the NASDAQ (-2.84%) and the FANG+ index (-3.38%) seeing even larger losses. Those heightened levels of volatility were also reflected in the VIX index (+1.7pts), which closed at 31.8pts. For European equities it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-1.67%) closing at a 22-month low. Adding to the tech woes, Meta (-3.67%) joined the growing list of firms announcing a hiring freeze, with the tech giant also issuing a warning of potential restructuring, so it’ll be important to see if this is echoed more broadly and what this means for the labour market. In overnight trading, equity futures are pointing to further losses today, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) both moving lower.
As we arrive at the final day of the month, Asian equities are similarly retreating this morning, putting a number of indices on course for their worst monthly performance in years. For instance, the Nikkei is currently on track for its worst month since March 2020, and the Hang Seng is on track for its worst month since September 2011. In terms of today, the Nikkei (-1.67%) is leading losses in the region with the Shanghai Composite (-0.21%), the CSI (-0.14%), the Kospi (-0.11%) and the Hang Seng (-0.07%) following after that overnight sell-off on Wall Street.
One source of better news came from the Chinese PMIs, with the official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly in positive territory in September with a 50.1 reading (vs. 49.7 expected), which is up from a contractionary 49.4 in August. The composite PMI was also in positive territory with a 50.9 reading. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly deteriorated further to 48.1 in September, so not every indicator was positive. In the meantime, Japanese data showed that industrial production growth came in above expectations with a +2.7% reading (vs. +0.2% expected), as did retail sales with growth of +1.4% (vs. +0.2% expected).
There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday. However, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area fell for a 7th consecutive month to 93.7 in September (vs. 95.0 expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Cable revived above 1.12 and core debt bolstered; US PCE Price Index/Fed speak ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 06:45 AM
European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end; US futures similarly bid
GBP’s revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected
A move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels; DXY sub-112.00 at worst, though still firmer overall.
Debt Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence.
EZ assets largely unreactive to HICP Flash YY hitting a record high 10.0% for September
Commodities broadly benefiting from the relative USD move, participants attentive to the EU Energy Meeting & Russian President Putin
Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Russian President Putin, Moody’s on Italy, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Brainard, ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, EU Energy Meeting & Russian President Putin
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
LOOKING AHEAD
US PCE Price Index, Russian President Putin, Moody’s on Italy, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Brainard, ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel.
CENTRAL BANKS
China loosened FX restrictions in response to the Fed rate hike and the yuan’s fall over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter cited by FT.
China’s FX body is reportedly asking banks to trade the Yuan closer to the PBoC fixing, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC injected CNY 128bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 58bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 184bln net daily injection and a net CNY 868bln weekly injection.
RBI hiked Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90%, as expected, via 5-1 vote and the Standing Deposit Facility was adjusted to 5.65%. RBI Governor Das said MPC is to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation and that the persistence of high inflation necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation. However, Das noted that the Indian economy continues to be resilient with economic activity stable and overall monetary and liquidity conditions still remain accommodative, while Real GDP growth forecast for 2022/23 was revised lower to 7.0% from 7.2% and 2022/23 CPI was seen at 6.7%.
RBI is reportedly encouraging state-run refiners to reduce USD buying in the spot market; asking to lean on USD 9bln credit line instead, according to Reuters sources.
BoE was reportedly warned about a looming catastrophe in the pensions sector within the next 5 years before it was forced to intervene to prevent a market collapse, according to The Telegraph.
Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said a downshift in economic activity and labour is needed to bring down inflation and additional rate increases are necessary and appropriate. Daly also stated that a myriad of risks narrows the path to a smooth landing but does not close it, while she added they have gotten rates to neutral and expect to raise rates further in coming meetings and early next year.
Norges Bank will purchase FX equivalent to NOK 4.3bln/day in October (3.5bln in September); reflecting an increase in projected NOK revenues from petroleum activity.
BoJ announces Q4 bond purchase plans, available here.
Japan spent JPY 2.8382tln on FX intervention between August 40th and September 28th, via Ministry of Finance.
GEOPOLITICS
Russian President Putin signed decrees recognising occupied Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent territories which is an intermediate step before the regions are formally incorporated into Russia, according to Reuters.
** Russia’s Kremlin says strikes against the new territories incorporated into Russia will be considered an act of aggression against Russia**; says Ukraine has shown no willingness to negotiate, via Reuters.
Russia’s Spy Chief says they have material which show a Western role in Nord Stream incidents, via Ifx.
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry says their Ministers and Azerbaijani counterparts will meet in Geneva on October 2nd, via AJA Breaking.
NATO Secretary General to host a press conference at 17:00BST today.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end.
Sectors are firmer across the board with Real Estate outperforming peers in what has been a tough week for the UK property market.
Stateside, futures are also attempting to recover from yesterday’s losses which saw a tough session for the tech sector after Apple shed the best part of 5%.
GBP’s revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected, a move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels.
USD is firmer overall but continues to retreat from YTD peaks, though the DXY is seemingly drawn to the 112.00 area.
Yuan derived further, fleeting, support from reports the FX body has asked banks to trade closer to the onshore fixing.
Elsewhere, FX peers are under modest pressure but more contained vs USD; EUR unfased by a record EZ flash CPI print of 10.0%.
The broader commodity market is benefitting from a pullback in the USD coupled with a broader risk appetite.
Metals are buoyed by the recent pullback in the Dollar with spot gold edging above its 10 DMA (USD 1,656.72/oz) and towards the USD 1,680/oz mark which coincides with the yellow metal’s 21DMA (USD 1,680.56/oz) and 200WMA (USD 1,680.20/oz).
Base metals are also firmer across the board with 3M LME copper back above the USD 7,500/t mark, whilst nickel and aluminium outperform on the exchange.
UK OBR Chair Hughes says a statement will be released today after the meeting with UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng. On this, the UK Treasury has not sought to accelerate watchdog’s economic forecast, according to Bloomberg. Reminder, UK PM Truss to conduct emergency talks with the OBR on Friday after failing to calm markets, according to the Guardian.
UK cross-party MPs in the Treasury Select Committee called for Chancellor Kwarteng to release a full economic forecast from the OBR by end of October, according to Sky News.
UK PM Truss has confirmed she will attend next week’s European Political Community summit, via BBC.
Reports that technical level discussions between the UK and EU could resume as soon as next week, via BBC’s Parker; writing, that there has been a ‘warmer’ tone in recent weeks, some believe pressure from the US on the UK has had influence.
German VDMA, survey of members: majority expect nominal sales growth in 2022 and 2023.
DATA RECAP
EU HICP Flash YY (Sep) 10.0% vs. Exp. 9.7% (Prev. 9.1%); Ex-F&E Flash YY (Sep) 6.1% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.5%)
EU HICP-Ex Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (Sep) 4.8% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.3%).
UK GDP QQ (Q2) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); YY (Q2) 4.4% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%)
UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Sep) 16 (Prev. 16)
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US Department of Education estimated that the Biden-Harris student debt relief is to cost an average of USD 30bln annually over the next decade, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged and in very tight ranges of circa. USD 400 and as such well within the week’s existing parameters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly lower after the negative performance across global peers amid inflationary headwinds and with risk appetite subdued heading quarter-end, while the region also digested mixed Chinese PMI data.
ASX 200 declined amid weakness across most sectors and with tech the notable underperformer after the recent upside in yields and with Meta the latest major industry player to announce a hiring freeze.
Nikkei 225 was pressured and fell below the 26,000 level with better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data releases overshadowed by the broad risk aversion.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after the PBoC conducted its largest weekly cash injection in more than 32 months ahead of the week-long closure in the mainland, while participants also digested mixed PMI data in which Official Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansion, but Non-Manufacturing and Composite PMIs slowed and Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at a wider contraction.
NIFTY eventually notched mild gains in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision in which it hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90% as expected via 5-1 split and with the central bank refraining from any major hawkish surprises.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they want to compile an extra budget swiftly after the economic package in late October, while they will consider further support for hard-hit consumers and businesses in view of higher energy and food prices, as well as consider steps to promote wage hikes, according to Reuters.
Chinese Finance Ministry is to offer a tax refund for people who sell their homes and repurchases new ones by the end of 2023; additionally, China has told banks to provide USD 85bln in property funding by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.4); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.6 vs Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.6)
Chinese Composite PMI (Sep) 50.9 (Prev. 51.7)
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 48.1 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5)
Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Aug P) 2.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%); Retail Sales YY (Aug) 4.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.4%)
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.82 PTS OR 0.55% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 56.96 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 484.84PTS OR 1.84% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1165//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.1260// /Oil DOWN TO 81.51 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.99 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
end
3c CHINA
CHINA/
Chinese youth unemployment is still near record highs putting a damper on their economy
(zerohedge)
Chinese Youth Unemployment Still Near Record High
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 04:15 AM
China’s jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds stood at 18.7% in August, stubbornly close to July’s record-high 19.9%.
The slight improvement came as the Chinese government unrolls a variety of stimulus measures — while also continuing to undermine the economy with draconian zero-Covid policies that are as destructive as they are quixotic.
With a record 10.8 million Chinese set to graduate from college by the end of the year, competition for positions is only getting fiercer. One unemployed 2021 graduate was recently alarmed to discover some job postings are now open only to 2022 and 2023 grads.
Of course, recent college grads aren’t the only ones looking for openings: Layoff victims are in the mix too.
Earlier this month, the Chinese government committed to a host of initiatives meant to boost employment prospects:
“China’s cabinet…said it would scale up support for start-ups to help create jobs, ordered banks to extend special loans to key internet companies and promised subsidies for college students yet to find work two years after graduation,” reports the South China Morning Post.
Those measures face stiff headwinds: While job applications soared a staggering 135%, job advertisements in the second quarter plummeted by 19%, compared to 2021.
Meanwhile, a broader sort of stagnation is setting in among Chinese youth. It’s encapsulated by a recently-popularized phrase in China: “tang ping,” which means “lying flat.”Similar to the American notion of “quiet quitting,” tang ping represents a lifestyle that embraces low expectations for professional and financial success.
The stagnation also seems to be affecting the institution of marriage. Marriages fell to a record low of 7.6 million last year, about half the record mark set in 2013. As we explained recently, that trend is weighing mightily on the housing market, feeding a vicious circle of economic and social malaise.
Speaking to the South China Morning Post, a 24-year old graduate of a top Shanghai university summed up the bleak situation confronting the young people of the world’s most populous country: “We’re in a pessimistic and helpless mood.”
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
EU/INFLATION
European inflation is red hot rising by double digits for the first time
(zerohedge)
Red-Hot European Inflation Hits A New Record, Rising By Double Digits For The First Time
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 07:40 AM
Another month, another red hot inflation print in Europe.
In the flash inflation release for September, Euro area headline HICP inflation rose 82bp to a record 10.0% (technically 9.96%), well above the median forecast of 9.7% and marks the fifth straight month the result has exceeded consensus. Before the inflation data, every one of the 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a record outcome this month, with four reckoning on 10%.
While energy and food once again drove inflation, an underlying measure that excludes them also topped estimates to reach an all-time high of 4.8%, above expectations of 4.70%, and piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
Here are the key flash numbers for September:
Euro area Core HICP: 4.79% Y/Y vs. consensus 4.7%, last 4.3%
Euro area Headline HICP: 9.96% Y/Y vs. consensus 9.7%, last 9.14%
France Headline HICP: 6.23% vs consensus 6.6%, last 6.56%
Italy Headline HICP: 9.46% vs consensus 9.4%, last 9.11%
Main points:
Euro area headline HICP inflation rose 82bp in September to 9.96%yoy, above expectations. Core HICP inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose 49bp to 4.79%yoy, also above expectations.
The breakdown by main expenditure categories showed services inflation rose five-tenths of a percentage point to 4.3%yoy, and non-energy industrial goods inflation rose 0.5pp to 5.6%yoy. Of the non-core components, energy inflation rose 2.2pp to 40.8%yoy, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation rose 1.2pp to 11.8%yoy.
In a separate release , French HICP headline inflation was 6.2%yoy in September, below consensus expectations. The press release notes a more marked seasonal downturn in travel-related prices as one of the drivers of the decline in inflation in September. In Italy, headline inflation surprised to the upside at 9.5%yoy, and the press release notes strength in non-durable and semi-durable goods, and food prices as the primary drivers of the increase.
The actual result masked considerable divergence across the euro region. In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, price growth surged much more than expected. The end of summer discounts on public transport and fuel helped drive a gain there to 10.9%, the highest headline rate seen in the Group-of-Seven industrialized economies since the energy crisis struck. Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium saw significant accelerations too. By contrast, price growth unexpectedly slowed in France and weakened much more than expected in Spain.
Europe’s inflation data have proven critical in driving momentum toward large rate hikes in previous months, and this result is likely to embolden calls for another large move at the next ECB decision on Oct. 27. Investors this week began pricing in a second straight 75 basis-point increase.
“The next step still has to be big because we are still far away from rates that are consistent with 2% inflation,” ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, said Wednesday in an interview in Vilnius, Lithuania, where price growth was 22.5%. “I would side with 75 basis points.”
While officials ramped up their aggression with a move of that size on Sept. 8, they’ve also sought to differentiate the euro zone’s experience with that of the US, insisting that inflation in their own region is far more supply-driven than the demand-propelled consumer-price situation across the Atlantic.
Even so, Bloomberg notes that policy makers will be nervous at yet another record reading. Boris Vujcic, the Croatian central-bank governor who will join the ECB Governing Council in January, warned in an interview published this week that “when inflation is high, when it nears double-digit levels, it can become a disease in itself.”
With Russia starving Europe of gas supplies and winter approaching, policy makers are bracing for an even more difficult few months. Price increases may yet accelerate further in some countries, while recessions are becoming increasingly likely.
The latest OECD forecasts chime with that view. Officials on Monday raised their projection for euro-zone inflation next year by 1.6 percentage points to 6.2%, noticeably exceeding the ECB’s own outlook. Hours later, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that her officials also see the danger of a higher outcome.
“The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside, mainly reflecting the possibility of further major disruptions in energy supplies,” she told lawmakers. “We expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.”
A relatively tight labor market may intensify such pressures. A separate report from Eurostat showed euro-zone unemployment held at a record-low 6.6% in August.
Looking ahead, Goldman now expects Euro area core inflation to peak at 5.0%yoy in December, and looks for headline inflation close to peak at 11.7%yoy in January.
UK
Government has no plans for reversal of fiscal stimulus
(zerohedge)
Pound Tumbles After Truss Signals No Reversal In Fiscal Stimulus Plans
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 08:20 AM
After surging for three days in a row, at one point unwinding all of its losses since last Friday’s shock mini-budget announcement, on expectations that UK PM Liz Truss may reverse on her fiscal policies and some speculating that Chancellor Kwarteng may exit the government…
… the pound resumed its plunge after 5am ET when it emerged the UK Treasury hasn’t asked its fiscal watchdog to accelerate its economic forecast, confirming that the government has no plans to backtrack on the economic strategy roiling markets.
As Bloomberg adds, there are also no plans to alter the timetable for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to publish a full forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility on Nov. 23, alongside his medium-term fiscal statement, the Treasury said Friday in a statement following a meeting between Truss, Kwarteng and OBR Chairman Richard Hughes.
The unusual meeting between Hughes and the government’s top two figures comes after Truss’s new administration came under heavy fire from economists and politicians for announcing last Friday the biggest set of unfunded tax cuts in half a century, while declining an offer from the OBR to provide an independent forecast.
The fallout was dramatic, with the pound plunging to a record low against the dollar earlier this week, and the Bank of England forced to intervene to prevent a meltdown in the bond market. Yet despite that, the outcome of Friday’s meeting shows Kwarteng and Truss are sticking to their guns, despite global from such places as the IMF and the White House.
Earlier on Friday, Andrew Griffith, a junior Treasury minister, sought to justify the lack of a forecast last week by saying the government had more plans to announce that needed to be factored in.
Following the news that the market was wrong in expecting a reversal, the pound fell against the dollar, having earlier risen on market expectations that the government might reassess its fiscal plans. It was 0.4% lower at $1.1075 as of 12:30 p.m. in London.
Still, some stability may be on deck: as Bloomberg notes, Truss will be hoping that visibly engaging with the fiscal watchdog will help to calm market nerves. Yet much depends on what the OBR makes of her economic plans, especially given the tax cuts were announced before accompanying policies were finalized. The government is still drawing up its medium-term fiscal plan, which is key to restoring its battered credibility with markets.
In Friday’s meeting, Hughes is likely to have run Kwarteng and Truss through the early forecast and indicated what savings the chancellor will need to bring debt down as a share of GDP in the fifth year of the outlook, a person familiar with the process said. However, the person said the OBR’s briefing is likely to have been uncomfortable for the government. In the 12 years since it was created, the watchdog has never increased its estimate of the UK’s long-term average growth rate — something Kwarteng is relying on to help close the budget deficit and bring the national debt under control. It is likely he will need to find tens of billions of pounds of savings, if he wants to stick with the announced £45 billion ($50 billion) of tax cuts and restore his party’s reputation for sound money.
The OBR said after Friday’s meeting that it would deliver the first iteration of its forecast to Kwarteng on Oct. 7. “The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the Government’s policies,” it said in a statement.
Meanwhile, amid the fallout from the market turmoil, the opposition Labour Party has soared to a record 33-point lead in YouGov polling, and while the next general election is not due for another two years, the atmosphere is febrile heading into the Tory party’s annual conference, which starts Sunday in Birmingham.
In a private WhatsApp message to Tory MPs, Kwarteng on Thursday pleaded with colleagues to back the government’s plans and not to air their criticism in public. “We need your support to do this as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party,” he said in the message seen by Bloomberg.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4 on Friday, senior Tory backbencher Geoffrey Clifton-Brown urged Truss’s government to bring forward “as much as possible” its next financial statement to give a full picture of its plans.
“We’ve got to give her a little bit of time,” said Clifton-Brown, who is also an executive of the 1922 Committee of rank-and-file Tories that decides party rules. “And time especially to try and reassure the markets that they know exactly what they want to do for the economy.”
As Bloomberg concludes, those kinds of remarks so soon into an administration will ring alarm bells for Truss, who has made the most turbulent debut of any British prime minister in peacetime.
end
Very clear collateral concerns caused the forced selling of everything. UK pension funds are still liquidating assets and seeking bailouts
(zerohedge)
“Forced Selling Of Everything” – UK Pension Funds Are Still Liquidating Assets, Seeking Bailouts
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 12:20 PM
UK pension funds are/have been servicing ever increasing margin calls driven by the extreme moves in real and nominal rates.
As BondVigilantes.com notes, they are on a hunt for liquidity (cash) to service these calls at the same time the liquidity (bid offer spread) of asset markets is extremely fragile. A sub layer to this dynamic is that pension funds are also a significant provider of gilts to the repo market (which they repo out to fund levered investments) and where we are now seeing some strain as these gilts are either withdrawn from repo programmes (to sell, as of yesterday to the BOE) or repo’d out to raise cash to fund said margin calls.
The timing could not be worse with quarter end looming, increasing demand for bank balance sheet from non-bank market participants and an ever increasing war chest of cash from the liquidity ‘Haves’ chasing collateral.
While The Bank of England stepped in to buy gilts on Wednesday, stabilising the market, The Financial Times reports that the pension funds are continuing to sell assets to meet cash calls.
“There’s a lot of pain out there, a lot of forced selling,” said Ariel Bezalel, fund manager at Jupiter.
“People who are getting margin called are having to sell what they can rather than what they would like to.”
He said the BoE’s intervention had helped to bring down yields in longer-dated bonds but other assets remained “under pressure” because pension schemes were “having to liquidate paper”. He added:
“We’re seeing really quality investment grade paper coming up for grabs…names like Heathrow, John Lewis, Gatwick, BT – solid fundamentals – to raise cash.”
Simeon Willis, partner at XPS Pensions Group, said:
“Pension schemes are selling equities and corporate bonds and using those assets to top up their hedges.”
“There could be many hundreds of schemes that have had their hedges reduced or removed. This means their funding positions are now much more vulnerable than they were a week ago.”
To fund the collateral calls, some pension schemes have resorted to asking employers backing their plans for cash. Outsourcing group Serco provided £60mn after a request from pension trustees, according to a person familiar with the matter, a highly unusual move for a well-funded corporate scheme. Sky News first reported the move.
While some schemes continue to rush to raise cash to fund their derivatives positions, others have had the positions terminated by LDI managers, including BlackRock, leaving them exposed to further moves in rates and inflation.
BlackRock, which sits between the pension schemes and banks on derivatives trades designed to hedge against adverse movement in interest rates and inflation, told its clients that it would no longer demand additional collateral but would instead liquidate holdings to meet margin calls that were soaring due to the extreme volatility in UK asset prices.
In a memo sent on Wednesday morning, BlackRock told clients using its liability-driven investing strategies that it would freeze “funds more at risk of assets being exhausted” and move the assets to cash.
The graph below shows the overall market value of available gilt collateral has fallen sharply over recent days…
BlackRock is “not proceeding with any further recapitalization events until further notice”, said the email to LDI clients, which was seen by the Financial Times and was sent at about 11am, before the Bank of England announced its emergency intervention to stabilise the gilt market.
David Fogarty, a professional trustee with Dalriada, a trustee firm, said:
“If you run out of collateral they were saying, ‘we will close the position’, without going back to ask for more money from the fund. It is protecting their positions against contagion but it is not protecting their pension funds.”
In summary, as BondVigilantes.com notes, there are very clear collateral strains for some sterling market participants and demarcation of the liquidity ‘Have and Have Nots’. The urgent question (with an unclear answer at the moment in my view) is whether this could spill over into a broader liquidity breakdown as the various actors seek to right-size or further shore up their defensive cash stocks during these unprecedented markets. One thing that goes without saying is that cash really is king at the moment.
ITALY
Pepe Escobar on the new PM for Italy, Meloni
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: Giorgia (Meloni) On Our Mind
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Grab the Negronis and the Aperol Spritz; it’s show time…
It’s tempting to interpret the Italian electoral results this past Sunday as voters merrily hurling a bowl of lush papardelle with wild boar ragu over the collective bland faces of the toxic unelected Euro-oligarchy sitting in Brussels.
Well, it’s complicated.
Italy’s electoral system is all about coalitions. The center-right Meloni-Berlusconi-Salvini troika is bound to amass a substantial majority in both the Parliament’s Lower House and the Senate. Giorgia Meloni leads Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”). The notorious Silvio “Bunga Bunga” Berlusconi leads Forza Italia. And Matteo Salvini leads La Lega.
The established cliché across Italy’s cafes is that Giorgia becoming Prime Minister was a shoo-in: after all she’s “blonde, blue eyes, petite, sprightly and endearing”. And an expert communicator to boot. Quite the opposite of Goldman Sachs partner and former uber-ECB enforcer Mario Draghi, who looks like one of those bloodied emperors of Rome’s decadence. During his Prime Ministerial reign, he was widely derided – apart from woke/finance circles – as the leader of “Draghistan”.
On the financial front that otherworldly entity, the Goddess of the Market, the post-truth equivalent of the Delphi Oracle, bets that PM Giorgia will insist on the same old strategy: debt-funded fiscal stimulus, which will turn into a blowout in Italian debt (already huge, at 150% of GDP). All that plus a further collapse of the euro.
So the big question now is who’s going to be Italy’s new Finance Minister. Giorgia’s party has no one with the requisite competence for it. So the preferred candidate shall be “approved” by the usual suspects as a sort of enforcer of “Draghistan lite”. Draghi, by the way, already said he’s “ready to collaborate”.
Marvels of gastronomy apart, life in the EU’s third largest economy is a drag. Long-term growth prospects are like a mirage in the Sahara. Italy is extremely vulnerable when it comes to the financial markets. So a bond market a-go-go selloff in the horizon is practically a given.
In case of a – nearly inevitable – financial catfight cage match between Team Giorgia and Christine “look at my new Hermes scarf” Lagarde at the ECB, the European Central Bank will “forget” to buy Italian bonds and then, Auguri! Welcome to a new round of EU sovereign debt crisis.
On the campaign trail, sprightly Giorgia incessantly pledged to keep the massive debt under control. That was coupled with the requisite message to placate the woke crypto-“Left” and its neoliberal banking owners: we support NATO and sending weapons to Ukraine. In fact everyone – from Giorgia to Salvini – supports the weaponizing, having signed a letter during the previous legislature, in effect until the end of 2022.
Deconstructing a “semi-fascist”
The Atlanticist woke/neoliberal sphere, predictably, is fuming with the advent of “post-fascist” Italy: oh, these people always voting the wrong way… The discombobulated think tank crowd is pointing to the latest in a cycle of populist waves in Italy; they don’t even know what “populist” means. But they can’t be too hysterical because Giorgia, after all, is a product of the Aspen Institute.
Giorgia is a complex case. She is essentially a trans-Atlanticist. She abhors the EU but loves NATO. In fact, she would love to undermine Brussels from the inside, while making sure the EU does not cut off those crucial flow of funds to Rome.
So she does confound primitive, crypto-“Left” American “experts”, who blame her at best for “semi-fascism” – and thus more dangerous than Marine Le Pen or Viktor Orban. Then she gets immediate redemption because at least vocally she proclaims to be anti-Russia and anti-China.
But then again, the temptation to burn her at the stake is too great: after all she’s appreciated by Steve Bannon, who proclaimed four years ago that “you put a reasonable face on right-wing populism, you get elected.” And she keeps terrible company: Berlusconi is dismissed by the woke/neoliberal Americans as a “Putin buddy” and Salvini as a “firebrand nationalist”.
It’s imperative to imbibe a strong dose of reality to form a clear picture of Giorgia. So let’s turn to a fine Turin intellectual and author, Claudio Gallo, now benefitting from being far away from the toxic fog of Italian mainstream media, mostly a fiefdom of the dreaded Agnelli/Elkann family.
Here are Gallo’s key takeaways.
On Giorgia’s popular appeal: Her support “among working people is a fact. We can see that in every survey. However, this is not a new tendency, and it started in the time of Berlusconi. At this moment, the working class began to vote for right-wing parties. But I believe this is not an Italian-only trend. If you look at France most of the representatives of the traditional working class vote for Le Pen, not the socialist parties. It is a European trend.”
On the “Draghi agenda”: “You can figure out the kind of governments we just had as a European Troika with one man only – Mario Draghi. They have proposed the most brutal economic reforms inspired by Brussels, such as extreme flexibility and fiscal austerity. These are policies that affect mainly the middle classes and poor people (…) The Draghi government decreased welfare spending by 4 billion euros next year and another 2 billion in two years. It means 6 billion less will be available for healthcare in two years. There were cuts also in the school system. Polls show that more than 50% of Italians did not support Draghi and his program. Draghi comes from the most powerful part of society, the banking sector. In the leading Italian media, it is impossible to find any critics of this agenda.”
On a possible Berlusconi power play: “He has quite a huge audience. He is accredited with roughly 8% of the vote. After all these years and all his judicial difficulties, it is still a lot (…) A few months after the election, we can imagine a situation in which Meloni is forced to resign because she cannot cope with the harsh winter (cost of living out of control, social unrest). It will be the time of a Grosse Koalizion to save the country, and Berlusconi, with his strong stance on NATO and Europe, is ready to play his cards. Berlusconi would be the key to a new coalition. He is always ready to get any compromise done.”
On “firebrand” Salvini: “He is the leader of a very divided party. He used to have a populist agenda, but at the top of his party you can also find some technocratic figures like Giancarlo Giorgetti, a staunch defender of the interests of the North Italian Confindustria. Salvini is losing consensus within his electoral base, and Meloni stole his votes along with Movimento Cinque Stelle. His party is divided between old politicians that dreamed of some federation to strengthen the autonomy of the Northern regions and others more inspired by Marine Le Pen’s right. It’s a volatile mixture.”
On Giorgia under pressure: “The pressure of the economic issues, inflation, price of gas and so on, will make Meloni, a very tough politician but not an expert statesman, probably resign. In Italy, there is a political stalemate; like everywhere in the West, democracy doesn’t work correctly. All parties are pretty much the same, with some cosmetic differences; everyone can still make a coalition with anybody else, without any regard to principles or values.”
“The more things change…”: “The man behind the foreign policy of Fratelli d’Italia is an ex-ambassador in US and Israel, Giulio Terzi di Sant’Agata. I cannot see how his opinion differs from Draghi’s. The same neoliberal and Atlantistic background, the same technocratic resume. Meloni is simply capitalizing that she didn’t participate in the last government, even if she doesn’t offer any alternative. Meloni repeats that nothing will change; we will send money and arms [to Ukraine]. She sends a lot of signals to NATO and the EU that they can count on her when it comes to foreign policy. I think she is sincere: she is surrounded by the people who will make it real. It is very different from the situation a couple of years ago when Meloni published a book in which she said we need to have a good relationship with Putin and build a new European order. Now she has completely changed her position. She wants to be seen as a trustworthy future premier. But the polls say that 40-50% of Italians don’t like to send weapons to Ukraine, and support every diplomatic measure to end the war. The cost of living crisis will strengthen this position among the people. When you cannot warm your house, everything changes.”
The real cage match
No one ever lost money betting on the EU oligarchy always behaving like a bunch of self-entitled, stubborn, unelected pricks. They never learn anything. And they always blame everyone except themselves.
Giorgia, following her instincts, has a decent shot at burying them even deeper. She is more calculating and less impulsive than Salvini. She won’t go for a euro exit and much less an Italexit. She won’t interfere with her Finance Minister – who will have to deal with the ECB.
But she remains a “semi-fascist”, so Brussels will want her scalp – in the form of cutting off Italy’s budget appropriations. These Eurocrats would never dare doing it against Germany or France.
And that brings to the political set up of the – supremely undemocratic – European Council.
Giorgia’s party is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists bloc, along with only two other members, the PMs of Poland and Czech Republic.
The Socialists & Democrats bloc has seven members. And so does Renew Europe (the former “liberals”): that includes the president of the European Council, the supremely mediocre Charles Michel.
The center-right European People’s Party has six members. That includes Ursula “My Grand Dad was a Nazi” von der Leyen, the sadomaso dominatrix in charge of the European Commission.
The prime catfight cage match to watch in fact is Giorgia versus dominatrix Ursula. Once again, Mediterranean swagger against the Teutonic techno-barbarians. The more Brussels harassment of Giorgia, the more she will counter-attack, with full support of her post-truth Roman legions: Italian voters. Grab the Negronis and the Aperol Spritz; it’s show time
END
Good bye to the European economy if this gets cut off.
Robert Hryniak
9:05 AM (2 minutes ago)
to
When everyone knows this is fight for control of oil and gas in dollars for hegemony on the wane, it is clear that being a brother’s keeper is trumping all else.
September 29, 2022: Days after explosions damaged Nord Stream 1 and 2, Oleg Aksyutin, CEO of South Stream Transport BV, said that if TurkStream natural gas pipeline is damaged, they won’t be able to mount repairs, because the Dutch government has revoked a key license due to EU sanctions against Russia, according to the US state-run RFE/RL (Radio Free Europe) on Thursday. And has informed the company’s managers to stop all work and cancel contracts with Western suppliers. According to the letter dated September 14, and said that the Netherlands, where the company is registered, had canceled its operating license effective September 17.
The TurkStream is operated by South Stream Transport, a pipeline finalized in 2020, running under the Black Sea to Türkiye and then on to Serbia and Hungary. It’s annual capacity is 33 billion cubic meters of gas, and Reuters said SouthStream had confirmed on Thursday that its license was revoked, but said it had requested a resumption and “will continue gas transportation.”
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Russia/Annexed 4 Oblasts (Eastern Ukraine)
Putin declares the annexation of Eastern Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Putin Declares Annexation Of Eastern Ukraine
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 08:18 AM
Just ahead of a Friday ceremony declaring the official annexations of the four occupied Ukrainian regions which held controversial referendums, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed two decrees which recognized the “independence” of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
“Recognize the state sovereignty and independence” of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions “effective from the day of signing,” the two decrees stated. This paved the way for Friday’s ceremony where he’s expected to give a major speech which will incorporate those two territories plus Donetsk and Luhansk. WATCH Putin’s speech declaring annexation live:
According to Russian state media, “In the documents, Putin refers to the universally recognized principles and norms of international law, and the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, enshrined in the UN Charter.”
In contrast to this Kremlin perspective, Western officials and media sources are slamming the big ‘land grab’ – which comes at a moment the entirety of these territories are not yet under Russian military control. A White House statement said in response to the “sham” referendums, “The United States will never recognize Ukrainian territory as anything other than part of Ukraine. Russia’s referenda are a sham – a false pretext to try to annex parts of Ukraine by force in flagrant violation of international law, including the United Nations Charter.”
Putin said in a televised meeting with officials on Tuesday as voting closed in the four regions: “Saving people in the territories where this referendum is taking place… is the focus of the attention of our entire society and of the entire country.”
But according to the latest battlefield update from Reuters, which cites pro-Russian officials in the breakaway eastern republics, things aren’t going well on Donetsk amid the ongoing large Ukrainian counteroffensive:
The pro-Russian leader of occupied areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk province acknowledged his forces had lost full control of Dobryshev and Yampil villages, leaving Moscow’s main garrison in northern Donetsk half-encircled in the city of Lyman.
In response to the declared Kremlin annexation of the four territories, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has convened an emergency meeting of top officials on Friday in which “fundamental decisions” will be taken, according to a Ukraine official cited in Reuters.
Preempting likely Ukrainian escalation against the newly absorbed territories, the Kremlin has once again reiterated that“Any strikes targeting the new areas after their accession to Russia will be considered aggression against us,” in a new Friday statement. Putin’s speech is being delivered to a large audience of top officials in Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace.
end
Putin Declares 4 Annexed Regions “Ours Forever”, Blames US For Nord Stream Attacks
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 10:23 AM
Update(10:23ET): With the ink drying on the official annexation declarations newly signed by the heads of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Friday’s historic ceremony – the key takeaway from President Putin’s lengthy speech is that he declared a “mission accomplished” of sorts. He said these eastern and southern provinces are now part of Russia “forever”. He even touted that the referendums were accomplished in line with the UN charter on self-determination for all peoples, and vowed “They have made their choice… this is the only path to peace. We will protect our land using all our forces and we will protect their security. We will of course rebuild all destroyed towns and continue building hospitals, theaters, and schools.”
Putin bluntly informed the large audience of top officials at Saint George’s Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace of Moscow that there are now “four new regions of Russia” – a fait accompli that the Ukrainian government and its Western backers are rejecting, also on fresh reports that pro-Kremlin forces have suffered more setbacks in Donetsk in particular. Earlier in the week Moscow acknowledged that its “special operation” will continue until at least all of Donetsk is captured. At this point, none of the entirety of each of the four regions are yet under total Russian military control, the overwhelming “yes” votes among citizens in favor of joining the Russian Federation notwithstanding.
This means Kiev is of course unlikely to accept Putin’s essential assertion of we’ve taken the four territories, now let the negotiations begin[our paraphrase]. “We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately stop hostilities and sit at the negotiating table,” Putin said.
Certainly Washington and London will seek to ensure Kiev isn’t enticed by this – also as the weapons shipments continue to ramp up, with longer range missile systems in the pipeline to boot. As for the newly annexed territories, Putin made clear in his speech that we “won’t negotiate the status of the annexed territories” and further that he “won’t discuss” the now finalized results of the referendums. This follows Crimea having long been taken off the table since its own popular referendum and annexation in 2014.
And with all eyes on the devastating sabotage against the Nord Stream pipelines, he pointed the finger squarely at Washington: “They are destroying European energy infrastructure… it’s clear who benefits.” According to his statements:
Putin blamed the United States for this week’s unexplained explosions at the Nord Stream pipelines that have left the damaged pipelines leaking huge amounts of natural gas into the Baltic Sea.
“It’s obvious to everyone who did it,” he said.
On the issue of dwindling energy supplies and soaring costs headed into what’s sure to be a rough, frigid winter for European populations, he slammed Western elites for a problem of their own making…
“They print money, but you cannot warm your homes with this printed money… They have to convince their citizens to shower less, eat less, and put on warm clothes.”
“The Western elites.. it’s a crisis due to their own fault.” He described that the goal of the “hybrid war” in Ukraine has a “Goal to break Russia at any costs.”
“The dictatorship of the Western elite is directed against all societies, including against the peoples of those Western countries themselves. It’s a challenge for all. This means the total negation of the human, the overthrow of religion and traditional values as the crushing of freedom becomes to look like the opposite of religion – open Satanism,” he said, repeating a familiar theme of his, and while rejecting “LGBT”/gender ideology as a threat to Russian society which the West seeks to impose…
“Do we really want to have a parent No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 instead of mom and dad in Russia? Do we want children to be told that there are other genders besides men and women? Is this the future we want for our children? For us, this is unacceptable,” the Russian president said.
All eyes were also on the lookout for any references to Russia’s nuclear stance, with The Moscow Times relating his words as follows:
He also slammed Washington’s past use of nuclear weapons, comments that follow his warning last week that he “wasn’t bluffing” about resorting to “any means necessary” in Ukraine.
“The U.S. is the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons,” Putin said. “Creating a precedent.”
As Putin spoke in the Kremlin, hundreds of Russians gathered in Red Square in front of a stage emblazoned with the words “Donetsk. Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia. Kherson. Russia!”
In the latest sign that following the annexation declaration things are only going to escalate from here, Ukraine’s President Zelensky has on Friday responded to Putin’s speech by requesting “accelerated” entrance into the NATO alliance.
end
UKRAINE
Ukraine responds//wants accelerated move for NATO membership
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Applies For “Accelerated” NATO Membership, Stoltenberg To Speak Soon
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 11:01 AM
Ukraine’s government has responded to Russia’s formal annexation of the four eastern and southern regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on Friday by saying it has applied to become a member of the NATO military alliance.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced his country is submitting an “accelerated” application to formally join NATO. This could mark a huge escalation and turning point in the war, largely dependent on NATO leadership’s response, given the question of NATO expansion right up to Russia’s border remains a central motive in the Kremlin launching and continuing the invasion.September 30th photo, via Ukrainian President’s Office
Of course, looming large over Brussels is the fact that based on Article 5, any acceptance of Ukraine into NATO would automatically trigger a Russia-West world war, and follows increasing nuclear rhetoric out of Moscow.
Zelensky was quick to put out a response to Putin’s major Friday speech wherein he referred to Ukraine as already a de facto part of NATO, saying:
“Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure… We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession to NATO.”
With the four territories now “forever ours” – as the Russian president had put it pointedly in his speech, he seems ready to negotiate a winding down of the conflict, calling on Kiev to lay down its arms. But Zelensky’s response to this was quickly issued:
Ukraine offered Russia “to agree on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified, and fair terms,” but this is impossible with “this Russian president.” “We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia.”
According to Ukrainian regional media, “NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will hold a briefing on Sept. 30 at 7 p.m. The topic hasn’t been announced.”
Is Brussels ready to answer in the affirmative? Or will cooler heads prevail and walk back from the brink?
However NATO chooses to respond, the reality remains that NATO has already been at Russia’s doorstep in Ukraine for years at this point, with weapons shipments and military infrastructure continuing. Increasing, there looks to be no off-ramp as both sides keep doubling down on threats and action.
end
NATO responds: state that the annexation is the most serious escalation.
(zerohedge)
“Most Serious Escalation” Since War’s Start, NATO Says Of Annexation Move, But Putin ‘Failing’ On Battlefield
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 12:30 PM
Update(12:30ET): “NATO’s door remains open,” Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded when asked by a Ukrainian journalists about President Zelensky’s declared intent to apply for expedited NATO membership. Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO countries will not in any way recognize Russian sovereignty over the four newly declared annexed territories during remarks in response to Putin’s speech.
He stressed in the press briefing from Brussels that “the area seized by Russia is an area roughly the size of Portugal…illegally seized by Russia at gunpoint.”
“These lands are Ukraine,” he stressed, adding that “Crimea is Ukraine”. He said, “This is the second time Russia has taken Ukrainian territory by forces… it does not change our commitment to support Ukraine.”
“NATO is not a party to conflict,” he said, stressing that the alliance will remained undeterred in supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion. He called the annexation the “Most serious escalation since the start of the war.”
He called Putin’s annexation ceremony and speech from hours prior “an admission that the war is not going to plan, and that Putin has failed in his strategic objectives.” He explained, “If Russia stops fighting there will be peace, if Ukraine stops fighting, it will cease to exist.” We will remain resolute “for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg emphasized. He also said if Putin wins in Ukraine, then it will be “dangerous” for the NATO alliance. He said “we haven’t seen any changes in their nuclear posture,” speaking of Russian forces.
Even though this is a “first” for Zelensky (formally launching an application to the NATO military alliance), the whole thing remains largely symbolic, given NATO need unanimous consent when it comes to admission of new members. If just one country says no, such as Turkey or Hungary, then it’s a “no”.
During Stoltenberg’s speech, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a separate statement calling Putin’s earlier blaming the Untied States for the Nordstream pipeline attacks as “absurd”.
end
Robert H
Why do we condone innocent killing of civilians
While many parties argue for conflict and many more profit from the death and destruction. This not limited to arms manufacturers or governments as Bankers do short sell countries and companies to profit while funding reconstruction or even arms deployment. One supposes that killing an opponent is fair game in a conflict because only death of another allows you to live until your time is up. However, what about civilians? Yes, civilians die in the ordinary course of conflict. But what about deliberate killing of civilians? Is this excusable because a conflict is on or is this murder? Normally, in war deliberate killing of civilians is considered a crime by a soldier.
So what can be said about the Ukrainian soldiers who now for 2 days in a row killed 60 people each time. This is women and children in car convoys going to visit relatives in areas that now have become part of Russia while still many kilometers from such a dividing line. Borders made by men, have no historical relevance in how or where relatives and families live in countries like the Ukraine. Who will speak or sound alarm over such indiscriminate killing, which most deliberate and intentional? And where is court of justice where charges can be brought?
While it is easy to forget about these poor souls and say who cares. We have watched this happen not just in the Ukraine, but in places like Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq etc. when does a court of justice hold such parties to account for their crimes against humanity. Yes, many such criminals have been brought into enabling nations and offered refugee from such a bloodied past. While such parties seem to escape civilized justice their souls will not be fortunate. What does this say about us, if we ignore such behavior, and do nothing?
As for the rest of us, as we go about our affairs and deal with challenges daily, do we simply note such death and move on or is time we question why we allow such actions to go unpunished? Because the geopolitics of energy where countless lives are lost or destroyed continue unabated until we say NO MORE. Sadly, being silent means one day it could us. And who then will write or care.
Cheers Robert
What Does The Yuanization Of The Russian Economy Mean For The Dollar?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is aiming to fully de-dollarize the Russian economy.
Russia is aiming to funds in currencies of so-called “friendly countries,” such as the Chinese yuan.
Russian experts fear that, with 17 percent of foreign exchange reserves in yuan, the Kremlin will not be able to pull money promptly when needed, thereby becoming trapped by China.
On September 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that, given mounting economic sanctions, full “de-dollarization” of the Russian economy is only a matter of time (RBC, September 12). Putin`s remark was preceded by a statement from Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev, who argued that “Russia no longer needs the US dollar as a reserve currency.” Instead, Russia must accumulate funds in currencies of so-called “friendly countries,” such as the Chinese yuan, which is playing a key role in this regard (RBC, September 8).
The idea of departing from the US dollar as a reserve currency is by no means new to Russia: It was first entertained in the 1990s. By 2018, Moscow had devised a “plan on the de-dollarization” of its economy. Prior to the outbreak of Russia`s war against Ukraine on February 24, Dmitry Medvedev stated that, if the Kremlin`s operations with US dollars were to be restricted, Moscow could fully switch to the yuan and euro instead (Vedomosti.ru, January 27). However, following Russia`s attack on Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, and other large economies have effectively barred Moscow from using their national currencies. As a result, aside from the Turkish lira, the United Arab Emirates` dirham and the Indian rupee—each of which cannot be fully relied on due to a number of factors—Russia has been reduced to the use of the yuan as an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar and euro.
Growing popularity of the yuan in Russia reached an intermediary zenith in August 2022, when sales of the Chinese currency skyrocketed (Quote.ru, September 8). Importantly, business giants, including Rosneft, Rusal, Polus and Metalloinvest, dramatically increased their investments in yuan bonds. As stated by Alexander Frolov, deputy director of the National Energy Institute, it makes perfect sense for Rosneft (and other resource-producing companies) to strengthen cooperation with the Chinese side via increasing the yuan’s use in their operations (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 8).
Yet, while many Russian experts and officials are applauding the decision to increase the yuan’s use in financial operations, other experts and officials share serious doubts and concerns. For instance, during the Moscow Financial Forum, Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov and Maxim Oreshkin, current economic adviser to Putin, disagreed on the yuan’s role as a reserve currency. While the former stated that currencies of foreign “friendly countries” should become a key factor in diversification of assets (1prime.ru, September 8), the latter disagreed, arguing that all monetary reserves must remain in Russia’s national currency (Rossiyskaya gazeta, September 8). Interestingly, even one of Russia’s main proponents for “de-dollarization,” Andrey Kostin, chair of the VTB Bank management board, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum (September 5–8) in Vladivostok, argued that, while there are many positive aspects related to the use of the yuan, other negative aspects reveal the risks of overreliance on the Chinese national currency, which is stipulated by “distinctive features of Chinese financial legislation” (1prime.ru, September 6).
From his side, well-known Russian economist Stanislav Mitrakhovych indicated three main risks Russia could face when increasing reliance on the yuan.
First, the Russian Federation does not have the necessary skills and infrastructure to work with the Chinese currency. Although manageable over the long term, for now, the Russian financial system is ill-equipped and largely unprepared for the challenges of relying more on the yuan.
Second, a high level of nonmarket regulations will make the process incredibly difficult. Unlike Russia’s previous experience of dealing with foreign currencies—both the US dollar and euro are currencies of free-market economies—the yuan’s price is regulated by the Chinese state. Thus, when in need, Beijing can easily manipulate the price of the yuan (say, to create favorable conditions for foreign trade). This could leave Russia as a “hostage” to Chinese interests.
Third, despite China’s growing trade power and economic might, the yuan has not yet become a fully independent currency, remaining tight to other leading global currencies. Thus, it should be remembered that—at least in the short term—the yuan will still be tight to the US dollar, meaning that the Chinese national currency might become an excellent investment tool for the future. For now, however, “making a bet solely on yuan could be a risky enterprise” (Gazeta.ru, September 8).
Other Russian economists have also drawn attention to the fact that operations with the yuan could pose multiple risks. For instance, even ultra-conservative Russian information outlets have argued that the People’s Bank of China (PBC) could easily devalue China’s national currency, which could result in serious challenges for Beijing`s partners who are investing in the yuan. Thus, despite its decreasing volatility, the yuan remains a somewhat challenging investment tool, whose exchange rate is almost fully dependent on the PBC (REGNUM, September 6). Interestingly, now—only after Russia was barred from operations with the US dollar and euro—Russian economists are starting to realize that it is much safer and more beneficial to work with transparent reserve currencies. For instance, Sofia Donets, an economist at Renaissance Capital specializing on Russia, complained that, if before, Russian economists and finance experts could easily access and read all regulations in “plain English,” now, working with the Chinese side, regulations are opaque and unclear (Vedomosti.ru, August 18).
In truth, some of the challenges feared by Russian economists and finance experts regarding Russia’s growing involvement with the yuan are coming true. The Russian side has been compelled to admit that Moscow’s inquiry to China to strengthen their partnership in the realm of financial cooperation has not been strongly supported by Beijing. In effect, Chinese authorities are unwilling to change domestic regulations to allow its investors to operate with Russia-issued bonds. Instead, China is more comfortable with foreigners investing in its so-called “panda bonds,” which are sold only in the internal Chinese market (The Moscow Times, September 8). Moreover, Russian experts fear that, with 17 percent of foreign exchange reserves in yuan, the Kremlin will not be able to pull money promptly when needed, thereby becoming trapped by China (The Moscow Times, September 4).
END
RUSSIA/USA/KALININGRAD
Pentagon increases surveillance of Kaliningrad, an exclave of Russia
(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)
Pentagon Increases Surveillance Of Russia’s Kaliningrad As Nuclear Tensions Heighten
The United States has carried out multiple surveillance flights this week around Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave located on the Baltic Sea coast. The American spy planes are likely assessing Moscow’s nuclear weapons activity as the two sides step up threats and warnings over the ongoing war in Ukraine.
During the past week, at least three Boeing RC-135s have circled Kaliningrad – a small piece of land sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland – according to data collected by flight tracking site RadarBox.Image: US Air Force, Boeing RC-135
The territory has become a potential flashpoint in recent months, as members of the US-led military bloc have threatened to cut it off from mainland Russia, with which it shares no border.
Earlier this year, NATO announced that it would welcome Finland and Sweden into the alliance. Moscow warned it could increase its military presence in the region as a response to any future strategic weapons deployments within the territory of new members.
All but two of NATO’s 30 signatories have formally approved membership for Stockholm and Helsinki, with Turkey and Hungary now the only remaining hold-outs.
Additionally, Russia and Lithuania’s relationship degraded after Vilnius blocked Moscow from transporting goods from the homeland to its exclave. After receiving threats from the Kremlin and pressure from the European Union, however, Lithuania relaxed most of the restrictions.
The increased surveillance flights come as Western leaders voice concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a nuclear strike on Ukraine or one of its neighbors. Politico recently reported that Western intelligence agencies “are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal that Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons.”
end
END
PRAGUE RISING: THOUSANDS Protest in Czech Republic Against NATO and EU Destroying Their Way of Life – Demand End to Hostility Toward Russia (VIDEO)
Inbox
Robert Hryniak
4:51 PM (4 minutes ago)
to
Not everyone is blind to what inept fools are trying to accomplish by seeking energy hegemony dominance.
We have not even begone to see the protests that are coming.
PRAGUE RISING: THOUSANDS Protest in Czech Republic Against NATO and EU Destroying Their Way of Life – Demand End to Hostility Toward Russia (VIDEO)
Thousands of citizens protested in Prague, Czech Republic on Wednesday under the motto “Czechia First.”
The protesters rallied against NATO and the EU elites destroying their way of life. The group was organized by a group who call themselves “politically unaffiliated citizens.”
The protesters want direct gas supply negotiations with Russia at low prices.
There were rallies in several cities on Wednesday.
Thousands of people gathered on Prague’s Wenceslas Square to protest against the policies of the Fiala government on Wednesday. The protest in Prague held under the motto “Czechia First” is organized by a group who describe themselves as “politically unaffiliated citizens”. pic.twitter.com/XI1sVKYmXr
Prague Czech Republic Stunning Scenes Thousands gather in protest against soaring inflation directly attributed to NATO and EU Policies that are destroying their lives…. It’s happening Everywhere pic.twitter.com/iZbfOQQe9a
As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier — In July, Czech households paid the highest price in Europe for electricity; and yet, something many Czechs see only as a cruel joke, the country remains among the largest exporters of electricity in the world.
Czech leaders continue to export electricity as their own citizens fall further into debt.
People living in Prague pay the highest price for electricity in all of Europe, according to the purchasing power parity of the currency. This index includes member states and countries outside the EU, such as Switzerland, Norway, and Russia.
According to the study, the people of Prague paid roughly 52 euro cents per kilowatt-hour in July. That is roughly twice as much as what residents of Bratislava pay and approximately three times more compared to the costs of residents of Budapest or Moscow.
Prague’s residents also pay almost four times more than households in the Swiss capital of Bern and over four times as much as households in Oslo, Norway.
The Czechs have the highest electricity prices in Europe today. Via Prague Morning.
The anti-sanctions protest:
The movement in the Czech Republic, which managed to rally 70,000 people in Prague a month ago, calls on its supporters to demonstrate at Wenceslas Square at 2PM this Wednesday.
The sabotage of Nordstream no 1 and two propels disaster capitalism to a whole new level
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: Nord Stream Sabotage Propels ‘Disaster Capitalism’ To New, Toxic Level
THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 10:20 PM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
The sabotage of the Nord Stream (NS) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipelines in the Baltic Sea has ominously propelled ‘Disaster Capitalism’ to a whole new, toxic level.
This episode of Hybrid Industrial/Commercial War, in the form of a terror attack against energy infrastructure in international waters signals the absolute collapse of international law, drowned by a “our way or the highway”, “rules-based”, order.
The attack on both pipelines consisted of multiple explosive charges detonated in separate branches close to the Danish island of Bornholm, but in international waters.
That was a sophisticated operation, carried out in stealth in the shallow depth of the Danish straits. That would in principle rule out submarines (ships entering the Baltic are limited to a draught of 15 meters). As for prospective “invisible” vessels, these could only loiter around with permission from Copenhagen – as the waters around Borholm are crammed with sensors, reflecting fear of incursion by Russian submarines.
Swedish seismologists registered two underwater explosions on Monday – one of them estimated at 100 kg of TNT. Yet as much as 700 kg may have been used to blow up three separate pipeline nodes. Such amount could not have possibly been delivered in just one trip by underwater drones currently available in neighboring nations.
The pressure on the pipelines dropped exponentially. The pipes are now filled with seawater.
The pipes on both NS and NS2 can be repaired, of course, but hardly before the arrival of General Winter. The question is whether Gazprom – already focused on several hefty Eurasian customers – would bother, especially considering that Gazprom vessels could be exposed to a possible NATO naval attack in the Baltic.
German officials are already spinning that NS and NS2 can “potentially” be out of commission “forever”. The EU economy and EU citizens badly needed that gas supply. Yet the EUrocracy in Brussels – which rules over nation-states – would not follow, because they have been dictated themselves by the Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder. A case can be made that this Euro-oligarchy should one day be tried for treason.
As it stands, a strategic irreversibility is already self-evident; the population of several EU nations will pay a tremendous price and suffer serious consequences derived from this attack, short, medium and long term.
Cui bono?
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson admitted that was “a matter of sabotage”. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen admitted “it was not an accident”. Berlin agrees with the Scandinavians.
Now compare it with former Polish Defense Minister (2005-2007) Radek Sikorski, a Russophobe married to rabid US “analyst” Anne Applebaum, who merrily tweeted “Thank you, USA”.
It gets curiouser and curiouser when we know that simultaneously to the sabotage the Baltic Pipe from Norway to Poland was partially opened, a “new gas supply corridor” servicing “the Danish and Polish markets”: actually a minor affair, considering months ago their sponsors were in trouble finding gas, and now it will be even harder, with much higher costs.
NS2 had already been attacked – in the open – all along its construction. Back in February, Polish ships actively tried to prevent the Fortuna pipe-laying vessel from finishing NS2. The pipes were being laid south of – you guessed it – Bornholm.
NATO for its part has been very active on the underwater drones department. The Americans have access to long distance Norwegian underwater drones which can be modified with other designs. Alternatively, professional navy clearance divers could have been employed in the sabotage – even as tidal currents around Bornholm are a serious matter.
The Big Picture reveals the collective West in absolute panic, with Atlanticist “elites” willing to resort to anything – outrageous lies, assassinations, terrorism, sabotage, all out financial war, support to neo-Nazis – to prevent their descent into a geopolitical and geoeconomic abyss.
Disabling NS and NS2 represents the definitive closure of any possibility of a German-Russia deal on gas supplies, with the added benefit of relegating Germany to the lowly status of absolute US vassal.
So that brings us to the key question of which Western intel apparatus designed the sabotage. Prime candidates are of course CIA and MI6 – with Poland set up as the fall guy and Denmark playing a very dodgy part: it’s impossible that Copenhagen was not at least “briefed” on the intel.
Prescient as ever, as early as in April 2021 Russians were asking questions about the military security of Nord Stream.
The crucial vector is that we may be facing the case of a EU/NATO member involved in an act of sabotage against the number one EU/NATO economy. That’s a casus belli. Outside of the appalling mediocrity and cowardice of the current administration in Berlin, it’s clear that the BND – German intel – as well as the German Navy and informed industrialists sooner or later will do the math.
This was far from an isolated attack. On September 22 there was an attempt against Turkish Stream by Kiev saboteurs. The day before, naval drones with English language IDs were found in Crimea, suspected of being part of the plot. Add to it US helicopters overflying the future sabotage nodes weeks ago; a UK “research” vessel loitering in Danish waters since mid-September; and NATO tweeting about the testing of “new unmanned systems at sea” on the same day of the sabotage.
Show me the (gas) money
The Danish Minister of Defense met urgently with NATO’s Secretary General this Wednesday. After all the explosions happened very close to Denmark’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). That may be qualified as crude kabuki at best; exactly on the same day, the European Commission (EC), NATO’s de facto political office, advanced its trademark obsession: more sanctions against Russia, including the certified-to-fail cap on oil prices.
Meanwhile, EU energy giants are bound to lose big time with the sabotage.
The roll call includes the German Wintershall Dea AG and PEG/ E.ON; the Dutch N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie; and the French ENGIE. Then there are those which financed NS2: Wintershall Dea again as well as Uniper; Austrian OMV; ENGIE again; and British-Dutch Shell. Wintershall Dea and ENGIE are both co-owners and creditors. Their fuming shareholders will want serious answers from a serious investigation.
It gets worse: there are no holds barred anymore on the Pipeline Terror front. Russia will be on red alert not only for Turk Stream but also Power of Siberia. Same for the Chinese and their maze of pipelines arriving in Xinjiang.
Whatever the methodology and the actors who were in the loop, this is payback – in advance – for the inevitable collective West defeat in Ukraine. And a crude warning to the Global South that they will do it again. Yet action always breeds reaction: from now on, “funny things” could also happen to US/UK pipelines in international waters.
The EU oligarchy is reaching an advanced process of disintegration at lightning speed. Their window of opportunity to at least attempt a role as a strategically autonomous geopolitical actor is now closed.
These EUROcrats now face a serious predicament. Once it’s clear who are the perpetrators of the sabotage in the Baltic, and once they understand all the life-changing socio-economic consequences for pan-EU citizens, the kabuki will have to stop. Including the already running, uber-ridiculous subplot that Russia blew up its own pipeline when Gazprom could simply have turned off the valves for good.
And once again, it gets worse: Gazprom is threatening to sue the Ukrainian energy company Naftofgaz for unpaid bills. That would lead to the end of Russian gas transiting Ukraine towards the EU.
As if all of that was not serious enough, Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030.
Just say no? They can’t: Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. And it’s already happening: because of sanctions, Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.
All the devils are here
Now it’s painfully clear the imperial velvet gloves are off when it comes to the vassals. EU independence: verboten. Cooperation with China: verboten. Independent trade connectivity with Asia: verboten. The only place for the EU is to be economically subjugated to the US: a tawdry remix of 1945-1955. With a perverse neoliberal twist: we will own your industrial capacity, and you will have nothing.
The sabotage of NS and NS2 is inbuilt in the imperial wet dream of breaking up the Eurasian land mass into a thousand pieces to prevent a trans-Eurasia consolidation between Germany (representing the EU), Russia and China: $50 trillion in GDP, based on purchasing power parity (PPP) compared to the US’s $20 trillion.
We must go back to Mackinder: control of the Eurasian land mass constitutes control of the world. American elites and their Trojan Horses across Europe will do whatever it takes not to give up their control.
“American elites” in this context encompass the deranged, Straussian neo-con-infested “intel community” and the Big Energy, Big Pharma and Big Finance that pays them and who profits not only from the Deep State’s Forever War approach but also wants to make a killing out of the Davos-concocted Great Reset.
The Raging Twenties started with a murder – of Gen Soleimani. Blowing up pipelines is part of the sequel. There will be a highway to hell all the way to 2030. Yet to borrow from Shakespeare, hell is definitely empty, and all the (Atlanticist) devils are here.
* * *
Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties. He’s been politically canceled from Facebook and Twitter. Follow him on Telegram.
end.
The Bombing of the Nord Stream Pipeline: Who Benefits? – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization
Robert Hryniak
10:30 AM (11 minutes ago)
to
The unspoken reality is that Germany started to have behind the curtain serious talks with Russia about turning the gas back on, without American consent. Germany was and is trying to look beyond today. Surprised? Can any government official admit this publicly, without retribution? As it is relationships are seen in a new light and it is cold one with resentment bordering on hatred. And the prospect of resistance grows as realities sink in.
Agendas trump all else in a game of hegemony, where survival rises above previous hegemony muscle. And the discourse of national opinions and grudges bares the light of day to be seen in full view. Dividing what unity existed by nationalist interests and grudges solidifying wounds that do not heal. Europe has never been one singular European culture, rather it is historical collective of national cultures in a melting pot where family, culture and religion has been stamped upon to create a uniform homogenous culture. It simply has been a failure in the inability to recognize and understanding human behavior. No one having a taste of the good life, willing gives it up for Socialism. It is why it always fails and why Klaus and gang are more worried and desperate, as they are failing in their grand plan. Even Neocons fail to grasp the folly of plans not working as people rebel. The human spirit always fights to survive and Germans want to survive. Just like many other people want to live a peaceful life with a prospect of a better tomorrow. When you take that away, you muster the human spirit to resist as it has through centuries of existence.
And just like American hegemony or imperialism died the day Russia was thrown off Swift because there will never will be a return to the norm that existed. With repercussions that can’t be avoided for the Western world. And why the collective of Russia, China, India and the SCO and the BRIC have and will formalize the Swift alternative, which really is the abandonment of the USD in trade. Attempts at military solutions to mistakes of State are too lame and too late to make a difference. And America cannot win against the forces it unified and created as competition without the destruction of civilization. As it is no nation will escape the fallout of changes that are occurring. One can only accept and navigate the uncharted waters of economic and societal change that are coming.
Talk to every day people in Germany and you will learn that trees are being cut down everywhere for firewood. It is not about the economy any more, it is about survival and that means not freezing in the dark of winter. One imagines the Greens will be shouting as smoke rises from the mass burn of wood this winter to hollow ears. Did you see anyone planting new trees? However, what comes after winter?
No one knows the horrors that will be unleashed by events in the making. However be certain those who can will leave or have left and capital drain out of Europe is accelerating. The curtain is falling on the Europe once known and enjoyed and loved by many. When the chaos comes as it always does with economic decline and societal strife, the outcome is not controllable by current enablers as chaos breeds its’ own control and retribution with a vengeance.
· Net Worth: The Fauci household disclosed net worth increased from $7.6 million (January 1, 2019) to over $12.6 million (December 31, 2021).
· Top Paid: Fauci continued to be the most highly compensated federal employee earning $456,000 in 2021 and $480,000 in 2022. Fauci out-earned the president, four-star generals, and roughly 4.3 million other federal bureaucrats.e to paid
· Big Awards: In 2021, Fauci augmented his government income with nearly $1 million in prizes from non-profit organizations across the world. For example, the Dan David Foundation, based in Israel, awarded $901,400 for “speaking truth to power” and “defending science” during the Trump administration.
During the ongoing pandemic year of 2021, the Fauci’s household income, perks and benefits, and unrealized investment gains totaled $2,832,876 — including federal income and benefits of $903,497; outside royalties and travel perks totaling $919,205; and $910,174 in investment gains.
Here are the numbers as compiled by our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com, an organization I lead. This analysis uses information we previously unearthed plus the newly released disclosures.
Investment Gains: $910,174
Disclosures show $910,174 in gains within the Fauci stock, bond, and money market portfolio during 2021 – in 2020, the portfolio gained $794,369. The total value of Dr. Fauci’s investment account was $10,271,626 and his wife’s investments totaled another $2,405,887, as of 12/31/2021.
These funds were held in a mix of trust, retirement, and college education accounts. Fauci has an IRA worth $706,219 (up $67,700); a defined benefit brokerage account totaling $2,551,210 (up $147,688); and a revocable trust worth $7,014,197 (up $1,718,299). His wife’s revocable trust is worth $2,269,225 (up $306,406) and an IRA totaling $136,662 (up $16,385).
The disclosures show that he’s invested in fairly broadly targeted mutual funds, with no reported holdings of individual stocks. The Fauci’s deposited an additional net $1,346,304 in savings during this period.
Fauci’s 2021 disclosures show that he continues with an ownership stake in a San Francisco restaurant, Jackson Fillmore, worth between $1,000 and $15,000: but received minimal income from the restaurant.
Gifts And Awards: $919,205
In January 2021, Fauci received a $1 million prize for the prestigious Dan David Prize affiliated with Tel Aviv University for “speaking truth to power” and “defending science” during the Trump administration. Disclosures show that Fauci kept $901,400 of that prize with roughly 10-percent awarded to handpicked scholarship winners.
Fauci also collected awards of $12,500 from the Eliot Richardson Prize in Public Service on July 31, 2021 and the Abelson Prize from the American Association for the Advancement of Science on February 8, 2021.
Two years ago, Fauci was named Federal Employee of the Year at the 2020 Samuel J. Heyman Service To America Medals awards program and he was paid $5,198 for the virtual star-studded event.
(Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) Last night, our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com received Dr. Anthony Fauci’s FY2021 financial disclosures from the National Institutes of Health. The documents contain a wealth of previously unknown information. For example, the Fauci household’s net worth now exceeds $12.6 million – up $5 million from 2019 t…
cholesterol and does so prior to inhibiting cathepsin-L. HCQ clinical trials and animal studies will need to account for tissue cholesterol levels when evaluating dosing and efficacy.
‘In order to test a membrane-disruptive mechanism for HCQ inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 viral entry, we compared HCQ to anesthetics (tetracaine and propofol) which are known to be membrane-disruptive. HEK293T cells overexpressing ACE2 were infected with a retrovirus pseudotyped with the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SARS2-PV). A segment of the spike protein binds to ACE2 and recapitulates viral entry47,48. A luciferase encoded in the pseudotyped virus is then used to quantitate viral entry (Fig. 1b–d).
Treatments with HCQ, tetracaine, and propofol all robustly reduced SARS2-PV entry into HEK293T cells overexpressing ACE2 (Fig. 1b). The cells were first treated with drugs (50 µM) for 1 h, then the drugs were removed. After the treatment and subsequent drug removal, SARS2-PV was applied such that the virus was never exposed to the drugs, thus avoiding potential direct effects of cholesterol on the viron. HCQ had the greatest effect on viral inhibition with almost a 90% reduction in SARS2-PV luciferase activity (Fig. 1b). We used 50 µM since that concentration was previously shown to be the minimum concentration that fully inhibited viral entry3.’
We told you so, but what is also troubling is the inference that this can be used as a passive immunization. This can severely hamper the innate immune system, the immune training in young children if vaccinal antibodies (potentially neutralizing as well as non-neutralizing antigen-specific) are transferred via breast milk.SOURCE
FDA Food Police want to Dictate What Foods are “Healthy” in New Guidelines Criminalizing Traditional Fats Like Butter and Coconut Oil
September 29, 2022 7:13 pm
The criminal U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday published new proposed rules dictating when food products can have the word “healthy” on their packaging and when they cannot. The problem is that you should not trust the FDA to tell you which foods are healthy and which foods are not, anymore than you should trust them when they claim that COVID-19 vaccines are “safe and effective.” The FDA does NOT exist to protect you, the public, but corporate America and the Globalists that control Wall Street and the Bankers. Just as the FDA serves the interests of Big Pharma and their interests in promoting vaccines and other highly toxic and dangerous drugs, so too they serve the interests of Big Food and Big Ag, and the three main cash crops that each year are heavily subsidized with American tax dollars to achieve world food dominance which are: corn, soybeans, and wheat. So is it any coincidence that FDA dietary nutritional advice places a heavy emphasis on foods developed from these three cash crops? Not only are these three cash crops used to attain world dominance in cheap export foods that local economies in poorer nations cannot compete with by growing their own native crops, these three crops from the U.S. are also the most polluted and contaminated crops in the U.S., as over 90% of all corn and soybeans grown are genetically modified (GMO) varieties that are heavily sprayed with herbicides and pesticides, including glyphosate which is known for causing cancer. And while wheat so far does not have any GMO varieties being grown commercially, most varieties are grown in the northern states such as the Dakotas and Wyoming, where the crops are “desiccated” at harvest by spraying them with glyphosate-based herbicides which kill them and allow them to be harvested more conveniently before the first snow fall. So ignoring more than 2 decades of peer-reviewed studies published in the medical journals on the government’s own NIH-funded website that conclusively show that a low-fat and high-carb diet that is promoted by the FDA and USDA is harmful to the nation’s health, and that natural and traditional saturated fats that have been in the food chain for thousands of years, such as butter and coconut oil, are “unhealthy,” while the newer “polyunsaturated vegetable oils” from corn and soy which have only been in the food chain since WWII and the invention of “expeller-pressed” technology which allows oil to be extracted from corn and soy and are heavily processed to make them shelf-stable are considered “healthy,” the FDA continues to promote Big Ag and Big Food profits by promoting dietary guidelines that are destroying America’s health.
Fake Meat Sales Plummet On High Prices, Woke Messaging
September 29, 2022 7:26 pm
A few years ago, life was good for the fake meat industry. Beyond Meat had been given vast amounts of real estate in grocery stores, and had scored a deal with Burger King to sell “Impossible” Whoppers. McDonald’s rolled out a McPlant burger (which was quietly shelved last month). Snarky woke advertisements permeated the airwaves and interwebs as plant-based ‘meats’ were on the rise. In fact, Beyond Meat waas valued at over $10bn in 2019, more than Macy’s or Xerox – with the most bullish investors claiming that plant-based meat would make up 15% of all meat sales by 2030. Now, as Bloomberg reports, the fake meat industry is getting ground into hamburger – and that doesn’t include cannibalistic nose-biting execs, according to Deloitte Consulting, LLC. Year-to-date, Beyond Meat stock is down 77%.
Rat feeding study suggests the Impossible Burger may not be safe to eat
September 29, 2022 7:37 pm
The Impossible Burger is a plant-based burger, the key ingredient of which is a protein called soy leghemoglobin (SLH for short), derived from genetically modified (GM) yeast. It’s already being sold in restaurants and supermarkets in the US. In 2019 the manufacturing company, Impossible Foods, applied for permission to market the burger in the EU and the UK. However, the results of a rat feeding study commissioned by Impossible Foods and carried out with SLH suggest that the burger may not be safe to eat. SLH is the substance that gives the burger its meaty taste and makes it appear to bleed like meat when cut. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initially refused to sign off on the safety of SLH when first approached by the company. The rat feeding study results suggest that the agency’s concerns were justified. Rats fed the GM yeast-derived SLH developed unexplained changes in weight gain, changes in the blood that can indicate the onset of inflammation or kidney disease, and possible signs of anaemia.
PfizerGate: Official Government Reports prove Hundreds of Thousands of People Are Dying Every Single Week Due to COVID-19 Vaccination – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization
Robert Hryniak
9:12 AM (3 minutes ago)
to
This is shocking article and it makes to understand why so many people are over whelming the health systems.
We Will Now Find Out What Putin Does When It Is “Sovereign Russia” That Is Being Attacked
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 03:45 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Really Trussing Up
Yesterday saw stocks slump and key bond yields rise slightly, the US dollar remain on the back foot, and commodities –or at least oil– fail to go anywhere. We also got some market-moving events and statements: we just haven’t seen the matching moves happen yet.
Russia announced it will annex parts of Ukraine today. This will then introduce a global split between the likely small number of states that will recognise this decision, given the doors it opens to other contested borders being changed by force, and the entire western world, which will reject the move. Then we find out what Russia will do when it is “sovereign Russia” that is being attacked. Risk is unlikely to be on as a result, especially into a weekend.
Far from unrelated, the EU saw major developments in its energy crisis. Even if the Twitterfication of it might have been unfairly reductive, how about: “EU official: President of the EU Council Michel believes the EU needs to tackle high gas prices and electricity prices; it’s up to the experts to figure out the details.” Such royal hand-waving unlinked to how reality works is how we got into this mess in the first place. But things were figured out. Not, as former BOE Governor Carney said of the UK, a needed rush for nuclear power. Rather, Germany –where inflation hit 10.9%, and the government warned the energy crisis is becoming a broader social crisis– offered a EUR200bn “protective shield” to keep the price of electricity down.
That means massive state subsidies and debts; for years; with no energy rationing in place; as the country starts to run dreaded twin deficits; and as the ECB raises rates. Those Europeans talking about Schadenfreude looking at the UK should be aware that while Nos. 10 and 11 are acting like the Mad Hatter and March Hare at the Tea Party, Europe is also living in Wünderland.
In fact, it’s hard to make an argument that the EU is not risking becoming the UK with a lag. To hammer home the point, the ESRB regulators report the EU faces ‘severe risks’ to its financial system, with the Ukraine war possibly (only possibly?!) creating a combination of slow growth, falling prices, and market stress. I don’t think the dollar will be down, or the EUR up, for long.
Of course, the same is true for GBP. More so when Pill yesterday claimed the BOE did not intervene in the Gilts market to push yields lower (as 30-years collapsed 106bp!), and will not do QE or Yield Curve Control; and neither will it fund the government, or MMT. The only logical function left is a bailout: except that is supposed to be on Bagehot terms: “Lend without limit, to solvent firms, against good collateral, at high rates.” I didn’t see that – did you?
As if that was not enough UK “More Tea! More Tea!”, and as suggested earlier this week, PM Truss is now going to push for aggressive state spending cuts to show markets that she is serious about fiscal discipline. So, tax cuts for the rich remain and bankers’ bonuses are back, etc., but we will see huge real-terms declines in social spending across the board into a recession, and even on “geoliberalism” UK soft power like the BBC World Service. In the ultimate marketplace of ideas, democracy, Labour is now up between 17 and 33 points up in the polls, which would imply the Tories will be entirely wiped off the political map.
Following the lead of using Macron as a verb in Russian (“Macronit” meaning to talk a lot and then do nothing useful), yesterday saw market chatter of how “to Truss” or to “Truss up” might be used in idiomatic English. (“They really Trussed that up, didn’t they?”) All I would add is that it also works with a Germanic “Truß” – with a lag.
Meanwhile, the Fed sent the message rates are going to keep rising regardless, even if we see a recession, that UK wobbles have as little to do with it as the UK claims its budget has to do with its wobbles, and whispers are that may include only a hairshirt “the discount window is available if you need it” Bagehot safety net ahead. This is revolutionary stuff for markets coddled with liquidity since Greenspan.
Are they Trussing up too? Larry Summers, who is being mentioned so often it surely cannot be a coincidence, is saying he sees the present backdrop looking like August 2007. Some think August 2008.
In either case, the PBOC is now leaning back towards bubbles again regardless, allowing nearly two dozen cities to lower mortgage rates for purchases of a primary property. The problem is that everyone can see that aside from a few hotspots, property is over-priced and over-supplied, and prices are going to fall anyway now the mania has faded – so why rush to buy? The other problem is that if the PBOC succeed, it means inflation for everyone else. The PMI reading of 50.1 today, up from 49.4, is neither here nor there, but the private Caixin PMI at 48.1 vs. 49.5 expected was there not here.
As Mexico just hiked rates 75bp to 9.25%, Bloomberg also notes the RBA faces an uphill battle to not be as hawkish as everyone else. (And does not note “because housing.”) It quotes there are “some lingering issues around credibility and communication,” which reminds me of the quip from Gandhi: “What do you think of Western civilisation?” “I think it would be a good idea.”
Of course, the BOJ is still doing its own sweet thing, boosting regular bond purchases this morning to try to cap upwards pressure on yields – which can only mean downwards pressure on JPY.
I would write more, but it’s been a hell of a week for me personally, and I am too Trussed up to do so. End of the month, end of the quarter, end of our tethers.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP 7.1160
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.1290
TURKISH LIRA: 18.53 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.239
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.738% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.715 UP 2 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 112.10 DOWN 0.10 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 18.92 PTS OR 0.27%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 132,81 POINTS OR 1.11%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 82.94 PTS OR 1.46%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 76.50OR 1.05%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 294.25PTS OR 1.45%
WTI Oil price 80.22 12: EST
Brent Oil: 86.40 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 58.42 DOWN 1 AND 21/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.106
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.97992 DOWN .0030 OR 30 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1158 DOWN .0014 or 252 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.77 DOWN .353//YEN UP 35 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3809 UP 0.01339 (CDN dollar, DOWN 134 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.71
Brent OIL: 85.28
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.814%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 3.766%
USA dollar index:112.16 UP 0.05 basis pts
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.49
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 58.45 DOWN 1 AND 24/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 500.10 PTS OR 1.71 %
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 193.56 PTS OR 1.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.25 UP 1.41 PTS (4.43)%
GLD: $154.47 UP 0.01 OR 0.01%
SLV/ $17.37 UP 0.13 CENTS OR 0.75%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Pivot-Hope-Punisher Powell Leaves Q3 Global Market Bloodbath In His Wake
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 04:00 PM
What a week, month, quarter, year! Q3 saw the end of the beginning of the end of the fun and games and Powell peeing in the punchbowl at Jackson Hole went full Leeroy Jenkins on global markets…
The S&P 500 Index is ending this quarter deep in the red (back below 3600), fully erasing an earlier 14% gain that occurred in July through mid-August. All the majors are back in bear market territory, but Small Caps and the Nasdaq are the ugliest horses in this glue factory… (Nasdaq is now below the June 16 lows)
As Bloomberg notes, this will mark the first time since 1938 that the benchmark is closing a quarter with a negative return after earlier rising more than 10% and posting the biggest drawdown from a quarterly high in recent decades.
The turnaround shows how much hawkish central banks and economic fears are weighing on risk assets, making any rally susceptible to a quick burnout.
The S&P 500 has lost $10 trillion in market value…
The global bond market is currently undergoing its worst drawdown ever… by along way!
Source: Bloomberg
While weakness spread across global bonds, it was the US Treasury market that led the way in September with the short-end up over 70bps in yield…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Fed Pivot’ hopes were dashed mid-quarter, sending yields surging higher and the yield curve deeper into inversion…
Source: Bloomberg
As BofA’s rates guru Marc Cabana warns:
“Thin UST liquidity & limited demand may make the US market vulnerable to a market functioning breakdown, similar to UK…. Fed could follow BoE in event of extreme UST market functioning breakdown”
Rate-hike expectations surged during the quarter, and at the same time, expectations for subsequent recession-saving rate-cuts languished…
Source: Bloomberg
And as yields rose – and rate-hike expectations soared – stocks tumbled unable to find enough ‘bad news’ in macro to prompt more hype/hope of a pivot in September…
But the quarterly performance for stocks shows the real swing around Powell’s Jackson Hole speech…
Source: Bloomberg
This week saw all the majors trade lower (despite BoE saving the world midweek briefly) with a notable decoupling between Small Caps (outperforming) and the rest…
European stocks were just as ugly in September with UK’s FTSE suffering worst…
Source: Bloomberg
Q3 is the 3rd quarter in a row during which a ‘balanced’ stock/bond portfolio lost money (if it wasn’t for July’s gains, this would have been the worst quarter ever for a stock/bond portfolio)
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rose for the 4th straight month (and 8th of the last 9) to its strongest since April 2002…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, Russia’s Ruble was the best performing currency (along with the Mexican Peso) while the rest of the world’s fiat faded against the greenback…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos ended the quarter higher with Ripple and Ethereum outpeforming (bitcoin was the laggard)…
Source: Bloomberg
In commodity-land, the strong dollar weighed on everything with Bloomberg’s Spot Commodity Index down for the 3rd month of the last 4 and back at its lowest since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude and Copper were down hard in September amid global growth fears and hawkish monetary policy talk. Silver managed gains on the month, significantly outpeforming gold…
Source: Bloomberg
After dropping 13% and 9% respectively in July and August, Americans pump prices for gas were unchanged in September and are now up 10 days in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that US financial conditions have tightened dramatically in the last quarter as Powell punched the ‘pivot-hopers’ in the face…
“This week has told us a lot about the transitions going on,” said El-Erian, who is also president of Queens College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.
“The next few weeks are going to be pretty volatile.”
And for all those hoping for a pivot, El-Erian has a few short words: “be careful what you wish for…”
“This pivot only happens if you have an economic accident or a financial accident. And the journey to an economic accident or a financial accident is a very painful journey.”
END
I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING
ii) USA DATA/
The Fed’s favourite indicator on inflation surges
(zerohedge)
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Unexpectedly Surges As Personal Spending Jumps
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 08:54 AM
There goes any hope that despite the US economy sliding into a recession and global markets turmoiling, that inflation would finally relent.
Moments ago the BEA reported that in August, personal income and spending came in 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, the former in line with expectations (0.3%) and slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in July, while the latter, spending, printing well above the consensus forecast of 0.2% and far above July’s -0.2% decline…
… which meant that the personal savings rate was unchanged on the month, and sticky at just above post Lehman record lows.
And even though as the next chart show, the frenzied growth in spending is slowing…
… there is still more than enough to keep inflation red-hot, and indeed the punchline from today’s report is that both PCE and core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric – came in well above expectations. To wit, on an annual basis, headline PCE printed 6.2% Y/Y, above the 6.0% expected (below July’s 6.4%), while core PCE came in at 4.9%, also above the 4.7% expected, and unchanged from an upward revised July print.
But where the PCE data truly stood out was on a MoM basis, where the core print of 0.3%, came in far above last month’s -0.1% drop and also well above consensus expectations of 0.1%, while the headline print of 0.6% unexpectedly came just shy of record highs, and above the expected 0.5% print.
Needless to say, this is not what the Fed had wanted to see, as it means even more hiking, even more things breaking in the market, and as a result futures slumped in kneejerk response even as 10Y yields slid to session lows, anticipating that even more tightening from the Fed will lead to inevitable recession.
As a bonus, here is Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir’s take on the PCE numbers:
Expectations on Bloomberg were for PCE Core Deflator YOY to be 4.7%, with the “whisper” number at 4.8% led by Nick Timiraos from the WSJ (believed by many to be the unofficial voice of the Fed). It came in a touch high at 4.9%, but just like European bonds largely held their own after a high Eurozone CPI of 10%, treasuries holding firm here – a sign that so much is priced in.
Spending was better than expected this month, but was ratcheted down last month – so take that with a grain of salt.
On the Core, for last month, it was reduced from 0.1% to 0.0%, but the YOY number was revised upward, meaning they found other revisions in even earlier months (a sign of just how “accurate” this data is).
Real personal spending has averaged 0% change for the last 2 months – showing signs of the consumer slowing?
Remember too, this is all as of end of August when the 10-year averaged 2.89% rather than the 3.5% it averaged this month (look at mortgage rates, credit spreads, and auto loan levels, and they all got worse in September).
The S&P 500 averaged 4,158 in August versus 3,868 in September, so any “wealth effect” should have hit the data.
I don’t pay close attention to individual stocks, but I went to the transcripts of their earnings calls. Inventory as a constraint was mentioned a couple of times back in the summer of 2021, and not at all in the most recent call.
The Manheim Used Car Index is likely to show a price decline YOY when the end of September data comes out.
We get Michigan sentiment data, but it would be surprising if inflation expectations went higher.
With AAII sentiment survey still 3:1 bears to bulls, the CNN fear and greed index near extreme fear, and QQQ RSI, as one example, at the oversold point, high put to call ratios, I’m adding risk here – specifically U.S. equity risk. (It doesn’t hurt, in my opinion that the GBP and EUR are off their lows from earlier this week).
By no means do I think we get a soft landing, but too much Fed based negativity is priced in, and the data could start tilting towards lower inflation than the market (and Fed) have been fixated on.
I continue to believe, the ultimate lows will be in a true “risk-off” scenario, where bonds rally while stocks fall, but I think for now, both can limp into month-end and get some strength.
end
University Michigan inflation expectations tumbled in Sept.
UMich Inflation Expectations Tumbled In September
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 10:12 AM
The headline from the UMich Sentiment survey continues to be inflation expectations which fell once again in September’s final data to 4.7%.
However, that is above expectations of 4.6% and above the flash print of 4.6% from early September.
Source: Bloomberg
At 2.7%, median long run inflation expectations fell below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021.
Inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively unstable in the months ahead, as consumer uncertainty over these expectations remained high and is unlikely to wane in the face of continued global pressures on inflation.
But it does confirm the plunge in inflation expectations across other markets and surveys…
So having got that out of the way, the rest of the survey shows sentiment for consumers across the income distribution has declined in a remarkably close fashion for the last 6 months, reflecting shared concerns over the impact of inflation, even among higher-income consumers who have historically generated the lion’s share of spending.
Finally, the actual headline sentiment survey showed very little progress and in fact weakened intra-month with expectations sliding from 59.9 flash to 58.0 final.
CHICAGO PMI
Chicago PMI plunges into contraction
(zerohedge)
Chicago PMI Plunges Into ‘Contraction’ – Weakest Since June 2020
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 09:53 AM
The Chicago PMI survey plunged unexpectedly back into contraction in September (to 45.7 versus 51.8 expectation). That is the lowest print for the survey since June 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
None of the underlying components rose relative to last month:
Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Inventories rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Just add it to the list of recession red flags…
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
NIKE
A good indicator on the collapse of worldwide demand
(zerohedge)
A “Shocked” Wall Street Reacts After Nike Plummets On “Unexpected” Inventory Surge
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 09:13 AM
It was all the way back in May when we first warned that a reversal of the “shortage of everything” bullwhip effect was coming, as soaring inventories (the result of covid-era overordering due to snarled supply chains) are about to hit a slowing economy brick wall, and prices are about to fall off a cliff as companies are forced to liquidate said inventories into a recession (see “Bullwhip Effect Ends With A Bang: Why Prices Are About To Fall Off A Cliff” from May 23), a point we also made repeatedly in the months that followed (“Bullwhip-Effect Reversal Is The Major Downside Growth Risk“; “The ‘Bullwhip Effect’ Will Frustrate The Fed“). And while the market largely ignored what was coming with the occasional exception…
… it wasn’t until last night’s Nike earnings “shock” that the full extent of the reverse bullwhip became apparent.
For those that missed it, NKE shares plunged some 10% overnight, their biggest post-earnings drop in 20 years, after the sportswear giant cut its margin outlook for the year while reporting precisely what we warned would happen as the reverse bullwhip effect kicks in, namely surging inventory, fueling worries over consumers’ ability to spend as inflation takes a toll. And even though all of this was perfectly visible for those who bother to look, the market was so shocked that Nike stock is in freefall this morning, suffering one of its biggest post-earnings drop on record.
And, as they always do after the fact, analysts slashed their targets on the retailer, saying that even a big brand like Nike isn’t immune to macro pressures, even if the longer-term outlook is rosier. Here is what analysts are saying:
Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT cut to $120 from $129)
Analyst Alex Straton flags high macro and supply chain volatility, full- year numbers falling, and long-term targets pushed out
While Nike’s discounted valuation feels fair, it also makes for a potentially attractive entry point for long-term investors
Guggenheim (buy, PT cut to $135 from $155)
Analyst Robert Drbul continues to believe that many of the issues Nike is facing are transitory, including “bloated” inventory levels and supply/demand imbalance, with “significant” gross margin pressure
RBC (outperform, PT cut to $115 from $125)
Excess inventories in North American have been the main “fear” among investors in recent weeks and months, writes analyst Piral Dadhania
Nike’s results show that it too isn’t immune, with material inventory build, lower than expected gross margin and a guidance cut
Keeps outperform rating on strong revenue growth and potential China recovery
Stifel (buy, PT cut to $110 from $130)
Nike’s demand strength was overshadowed by ballooning inventories that will weigh on margin, analyst Jim Duffy says
Among positives, highlights solid back-to-school, and better-than-feared Greater China results
Citi (neutral, PT $93)
While the inventory buildup is mainly due to supply chain timing issues, Nike must walk a fine line between heavy liquidation sales and protecting the health of its brand near and longer-term, analyst Paul Lejuez writes
Risk remains even for a strong brand like Nike, especially if macro environment weakness further
BMO Capital Markets (outperform, PT cut to $110 from $128)
Analyst Simeon A Siegel notes Nike beat on revenues and EPS, missed margins and lowered its guidance
Jefferies (buy, PT cut to $115 from $130)
Analyst Randal Konik notes Nike still has strong demand and remains attractive in the long term, but cuts its PT on near-term volatility
Points to healthy top-line performance, EPS beat driven by cost discipline as positives for the quarter. Elevated inventories and below-consensus China sales were cited as negatives
Wells Fargo (overweight, PT $130)
Analyst Kate Fitzsimons pointed to revenue upside and cost controls, but noted gross margin missed on outsize freight and logistics costs, FX headwinds and higher markdowns
Commenting on the collapsing price, Bloomberg technician William Maloney writes that NKE is in long-term downtrend from November peak; and is already well below the pre-pandemic high. Chartists will note that a potential initial support zone is $84- $86, and if $84 fails, next potential support $78, $81.
While it is unclear if NKE will plunge that far, one thing is certain: get ready for a whole lot of 50%-off deals on Nike sneakers.
end
Ian Strengthens Back To Hurricane, Takes Aim At South Carolina After Decimating Southwest Florida
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 09:50 AM
After making landfall in southwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon and being downgraded to a tropical storm on Thursday traversing the central part of the state, Ian entered the Atlantic Ocean the overnight and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it barreled toward South Carolina.
Heavy rain and high winds are beginning to hit South Carolina and North Carolina coasts early Friday as the dangerous storm is located about 140 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. The storm is moving north-northeast at 9 mph; Ian has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
“Hurricane-force winds are expected across the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
“Hurricane conditions are possible tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina where a hurricane watch is in effect,” Eric Blake, a forecaster at NHC, wrote in a daily update.
The Carolinas are expected to experience “life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions” today as the storm is expected to make landfall this afternoon.
Mike Doll, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, said when the Ian makes landfall north of Charleston, areas can expect a 4-7 feet storm surge and rainfall totals up to 8 inches.
According to a White House statement, President Biden declared an emergency in South Carolina and ordered federal assistance ahead of the storm’s landfall.
Ian’s imminent South Carolina landfall comes after leaving a destruction trail across southwest Florida. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the storm unleashed a “biblical storm surge” that decimated city streets, buildings, and residential homes around the Fort Myers area.
end
Another indicator of a huge downturn in the economy: First, Rent a Center crashes
(zerohedge)
“You Will Rent Nothing And You Will Be Happy”: Rent-A-Center Crashes After Pulling Guidance Due To Collapsing “Economic Conditions”
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 11:40 AM
How bad is it out there? So bad Americans can’t even afford to rent any more, or as Biden would put it: “the strongest economic recovery in recent history.”
In addition to the previously discussed implosion at Nike, whose stock is getting crushed by the bullwhip effect sending inventories soaring as US consumers hit a recession brick wall, a middle-American staple is getting hammered even harder: yes, Rent-A-Center is down as much as 20% today…
… one of its biggest one-day drops on record, which has pushed the stock back to April 2020 levels.
What happened? Well, the floor fell out after the rent-to-own store chain operator’s adj. EPS forecast for the third quarter fell far short of analyst estimates, lowered Q3 guidance citing macroeconomic headwinds – which impacted retail traffic and customer payment behavior – and most ominously, the company didn’t reaffirm its 2022 guidance, prompting brokers to cut their targets on the stock.
Some details:
RCII expects Q3 adj. EPS of $0.85-$0.95, missing consensus estimate of $1.16. Its prior outlook was $1.05-$1.25.
Q3 revenue is projected to be $1B-$1.02B vs. consensus estimate of $1.03B. Its earlier forecast was $1B-$1.055B.
Oh yeah, and the CFO just quit.
Commenting on the disastrous results driven by a collapse in demand, RCII CEO Mitch Fadel said “external economic conditions continued to deteriorate over the past few months… recent inflationary conditions have been especially challenging for customers.” Or, again, as Biden would say: “the strongest economic recovery in recent history.”
The Company said it was not updating or reaffirming its previously reported consolidated guidance for the full year 2022, and will provide an update on the fourth quarter 2022 with its earnings announcement that is expected in early November.
“External economic conditions have continued to deteriorate over the past few months,” said Mr. Fadel.
“This has affected both retail traffic and customer payment behavior, so we are updating third quarter guidance to reflect the impact of those trends on our business.”
Translation: Americans can’t even afford to rent stuff any more, let alone buy.
And like in the case of Nike, sellside research was shocked:
KeyBanc (overweight, cuts PT to $37 from $41)
Analyst Bradley Thomas is “disappointed” by the degree of near-term challenges at RCII, though notes that they do align with weakness seen in some of co.’s channels
While analyst continues to see near-term risks, believes RCII’s Acima segment can benefit from long-term secular growth trends
Janney (buy, PT cut to $44 from $52)
Given RCII’s management did not reaffirm 2022 guidance, the clear indication is that it will be cut when they report 3Q22 EPS, analyst John Rowan says
While the announcement is “disappointing,” the stock is undervalued
What happens next? Why those same lower/middle consumers who can’t even afford to rent stuff due to soaring prices, are about to lose their jobs too as the Fed and the puppet Biden regime push the US economy into all-out collapse.
and
Then Carnival shares (Carnival Cruise ships) crash and rebound sinks
(zerohedge)
Carnival Shares Crash As Cruise Rebound Sinks
FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM
Carnival Corp. shares crashed Friday morning as fuel prices and inflation delayed its return to profitability. There’s concern that the cruise ship rebound post-Covid has stalled amid waning consumer demand.
The world’s largest cruise ship operator missed EPS and EBITDA estimates for the third quarter. It expects advance bookings for the fourth quarter to fall below average trends — a surprise to estimates just weeks ago.
The cruise ship operator has been discounting tickets and increasing advertisements to attract passengers. Still, the occupancy rate for the third quarter was 84%, coming in short of the 86.5% average estimate analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
“We are continuing to close the gap to 2019 as we progress through the year, building occupancy on higher capacity and lower unit costs,” said CEO Josh Weinstein.
Revenue in the third quarter increased to $4.31 billion from $546 million in the same quarter last year but missed Wall Street analysts’ average estimate of $4.90 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Net losses were $770 million, or 65 cents per share, from $2.84 billion, or $2.50 per share, a year earlier. Revenue has missed expectations for ten consecutive quarters.
Similarweb travel and leisure analyst Jim Corridore told Reuters the downward revision to the fourth quarter is not as much due to slowing demand or revenue problems but rather soaring costs to operate vessels, such as higher fuel, food, and labor prices.
Carnival expects 2023 bookings “slightly above the historical average and at considerably higher prices” than 2019 when normalized for future cruise credits.
The demand outlook is very ominous. Here’s what the Miami-based company said:
Events and conditions around the world, including war and other military actions, such as the current invasion of Ukraine, inflation, higher fuel prices, higher interest rates and other general concerns impacting the ability or desire of people to travel, have led, and may in the future lead, to a decline in demand for cruises, impacting our operating costs and profitability.
The stock crashed as much as 23% this morning to levels not seen since 1993.
Also, several of Carnival’s bonds were the largest decliners in the junk bond space. Equity and bond prices for other cruise liners also fell.
This is the latest example of consumer-sensitive companies warning about downbeat earnings, inflationary woes, and weakening consumers.
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//Turkey, Eggs, Butter
Supplies extremely tight
(Michael Snyder
This Thanksgiving, Supplies Of Turkey, Eggs, & Butter Will Be Extremely Tight In The US
If you love to cook, this upcoming Thanksgiving may be a real challenge for you. Thanks to a resurgence of the bird flu, supplies of turkey are getting tighter and tighter. Sadly, the same thing is true for eggs. And as you will see below, reduced milk production is sending the price of butter into the stratosphere. Thanks to soaring prices, a traditional Thanksgiving dinner will be out of reach for millions of American families this year, and that is extremely unfortunate. Of course all of this is happening in the context of a horrific global food crisis that is getting worse with each passing day. Yes, things are bad now, but they will be significantly worse this time next year.
The bird flu pandemic that has killed tens of millions of our chickens and turkeys was supposed to go away during the hot summer months, but that didn’t happen. And now that the weather is starting to get colder again, there has been a resurgence of the bird flu and this is “devastating egg and turkey operations in the heartland of the country”…
Turkeys are selling for record high prices ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday as a resurgence of bird flu wipes out supplies across the US.
Avian influenza is devastating egg and turkey operations in the heartland of the country. If just one bird gets it, the entire flock is culled in order to stop the spread. Millions of hens and turkeys have been killed in recent weeks. As a result, prices for turkey hens are nearly 30% higher than a year ago and 80% above pre-pandemic costs. Just as concerning are inventories of whole turkeys, which are the lowest going into the US winter holiday season since 2006. That means there will be little relief from inflation for Thanksgiving dinner.
In the months ahead, we could see tens of millions more chickens and turkeys get wiped out.
Egg prices have already tripled in 2022 and the price of turkey meat is up 60 percent. Unfortunately, this is likely just the beginning…
Turkey hens are $1.82 a pound this week, according to Urner Barry, compared to $1.42 last year and $1.01 before the pandemic. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are at $3.62 a dozen as of Wednesday, the highest ever, up from a previous record of $3.45 a dozen set earlier this year, said John Brunnquell, chief executive officer of Egg Innovations, one of the biggest US producers of free-range eggs. Consumers have seen prices for eggs at grocery stores triple this year, while turkey meat rose a record-setting 60%, according to a Cobank report.
Meanwhile, supplies of butter are steadily getting tighter as well…
Lower milk production on U.S. dairy farms and labor shortages for processing plants have weighed on butter output for months, leaving the amount of butter in U.S. cold storage facilities at the end of July the lowest since 2017, according to the Agriculture Department.
Tight supplies have sent butter prices soaring at U.S. supermarkets, surpassing most other foods in the past year. U.S. grocery prices in August rose 13.5% during the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 1979, according to the Labor Department. Butter outstripped those gains, rising 24.6% over the same period.
The trends that are driving up the price of butter aren’t going away any time soon, and so we are being warned to brace ourselves for “elevated” prices for the foreseeable future…
The forces at work in butter highlight the challenge of curtailing inflation. Economic pressures fueling high prices for livestock feed, labor shortages and other factors could persist, keeping prices for the kitchen staple elevated longer term.
To me, slathering a piece of warm bread with a huge chunk of butter is one of the best things about Thanksgiving.
And most of us will continue to buy butter no matter how high it goes.
But the truth is that rapidly rising food prices are forcing vast numbers of Americans to adjust their shopping habits. Here is one example…
For Carol Ehrman, cooking is a joyful experience.
“I love to cook, it’s my favorite thing to do,” she said. She especially likes to cook Indian and Thai food, but stocking the spices and ingredients she needs for those dishes is no longer feasible. “When every ingredient has gone up, that adds up on the total bill,” she said.
“What used to cost us $250 to $300 … is now $400.” Ehrman, 60, and her husband, 65, rely on his social security income, and the increase was stretching their budget. “We just couldn’t do that.”
The global food crisis is starting to hit home for many ordinary Americans, and we need to understand that this crisis is still only in the very early chapters.
David Beasley is the head of the UN World Food Program, and he is actually using the word “hell” to describe what is potentially coming in 2023…
“It’s a perfect storm on top of a perfect storm,” Beasley said. “And with the fertilizer crisis we’re facing right now, with droughts, we’re facing a food pricing problem in 2022. This created havoc around the world.”
“If we don’t get on top of this quickly — and I don’t mean next year, I mean this year — you will have a food availability problem in 2023,” he said. “And that’s gonna be hell.”
The World Food Program keeps sounding the alarm, but very few of us in the western world seem to be taking those warnings very seriously.
People are literally dropping dead from starvation in some areas of the globe right now, and a new report that the WFP just released says that there are 19 “hotspots” where we could see a “huge loss of life” between October and January…
World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) are out with a new report outlining countries that “are either already starving or on the brink of disaster.”
WFP and FAO found 19 hunger hotspots worldwide, with most countries in Africa, the Middle East, and even some in Central America. They call for urgent humanitarian action between October 2022 and January 2023 to avoid “huge loss of life.”
Afghanistan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen, and Haiti are labeled “hotspots of highest concern,” facing catastrophic hunger levels.
The sort of famines that we were warned about are already starting to happen right in front of our eyes, but most people simply will not care as long as they are not going hungry themselves.
What those people do not realize is that this global food crisis is going to continue to spread.
As supplies of food get tighter and tighter, prices will continue to soar and shortages will become more common.
We truly are in unprecedented territory, and the pain that is ahead will greatly shock all of the lemmings that just kept assuming that everything would work out just fine somehow.
It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.
END
Orange juice prices could increase substantially as the hurricane pummeled Florida’s top citrus growing areas
(zerohedge)
Orange Juice Prices Could “Increase Substantially” As Hurricane Pummels Florida’s Top Citrus Grow Region
Donald Keeney, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies Inc., told Bloomberg that 90% of the state’s citrus crop is in Ian’s path, including three top-producing counties.
“There’s not a thing in the world you can do to protect crops.
“All the areas are going to have impact. It could be the the final straw for some Florida growers,” said Raymond Royce, executive director at Highlands County Citrus Growers Association in Sebring, Florida.
November orange juice futures contracts are trading as high as $1.90 per pound Thursday morning and have risen 7% since Monday. $2 per pound appears to be a multi-decade resistance level.
On Monday, we pointed out OJ prices were set to rise due to the tropical threat with storm path projections for Tampa. But landfall was about two hours south near Fort Myers, suggesting more widespread damage to citrus crops.
“The only problem is that as much as the crop could be blown off the trees, the high prices and tighter supply will also shrink demand,” said Judy Ganes of J Ganes Consulting.
To get an idea of where the storm made landfall and top producing citrus counties in the state, the US Department of Agriculture’s map is an eye opener of the severe damage that could’ve hit citrus groves (there are still no official crop damage reports but assessments should be underway).
The University of Florida estimated that 375,000 acres of citrus could be impacted.
Combine the storm’s potentially devastating blow to an industry already suffering from citrus greening, and Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio laid out to CNN about the disaster ahead:
“The citrus industry in Florida is already teetering on the brink because of citrus greening.
“They lose this year’s crop and a bunch of trees, you can’t just restart that.”
With that being said, crop damage reports could likely surface in the coming days or weeks and may push prices higher on increased supply woes. The $2 per pound mark will be in focus.
Did we mention Florida is one of the top-producing citrus states?
Floridians are starting to assess the damage created by Hurricane Ian a day after it slammed into the Gulf Coast as a massive Category 4 storm. By Thursday morning, Ian had been downgraded to a tropical storm, but a threat remains as it continues to bring heavy winds and rain to the state.
As of 11:54 a.m. EDT, more than 2.6 million Floridians were without power, with some counties, including Hardee, almost completely in the dark.
Nearly 20% of Tampa gas stations have reported fuel shortage and access issues.
As previously reported, the logistics impacts could last for weeks — or longer.
Here’s the latest as of 11:30 a.m. EDT:
Roads and bridges
In a news conference Thursday morning in Tallahassee, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is working to make sure roads and interstate highways are open.
Most of Interstate 75 remains open, according to FDOT, with some interruptions.
“Alligator Alley on I-75 across into Collier and Lee County is open and flowing,” DeSantis said. “I-75 south through Charlotte County is open and flowing. Portions of Lee County they are still looking at.”
Additionally, part of the Sanibel Causeway Bridge, a major bridge that connects Fort Myers to Sanibel Island, has been washed out.
DeSantis added that 100 inspectors, working in teams of two, will assess bridges. Once determined to be safe, they will reopen, but the governor added that he anticipates more bridges to be damaged.
Storm affecting key ports
Port Tampa Bay, a major facility for fuel that is mostly barged over from refining centers on the Gulf Coast, remains shut down.
With Tropical Storm Ian expected to move toward Georgia and the Carolinas, the Georgia Ports Authority said Wednesday that the Port of Savannah’s Garden City Terminal will provide day operations through Thursday, with truck gates opening at 4 a.m. EDT and closing at 6 p.m.
There will be no night gates in Savannah on Thursday. The cutoff time for container pickup on Thursday will be 4:30 p.m., and 5 p.m. for container drop-offs.
Savannah’s Ocean Terminal will operate as normal from 7 a.m.-5 p.m. through Thursday. The Port of Brunswick will also maintain normal operating hours from 7 a.m.-5 p.m. through Thursday.
The Georgia Ports Authority will open truck gates at Garden City Terminal from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Friday. Its regular Saturday gate hours of 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. will be in effect. Gates at the Ocean Terminal in Savannah will be open from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. Friday.
Vessel service in Savannah will resume Saturday morning.
Savannah could feel Ian’s effects soon. Everstream Analytics’ meteorologists are forecasting wind gusts of more than 70 mph, 6-to-8 inches of rain and a 3-to-5-foot storm surge at the Port of Savannah, the fourth-largest container port in the country, for Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the South Carolina Ports Authority said all marine terminals will operate at normal hours Thursday, but all will be closed Friday. The North Carolina Ports Authority reported normal gate and vessel operations will continue Thursday at the Port of Wilmington, Port of Morehead City and the Charlotte Inland Port.
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is waiving hours-of-service restrictions in eight states for motor carriers moving emergency relief supplies, equipment and fuel into states affected by Hurricane Ian.
The emergency order covers Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee, waiving the 14-hour driving window, 11-hour driving limit and other HOS rules covered under Title 49 of the Code of Federal Regulations. The order expires on Oct. 28 or until the emergency is over.
FedEx, UPS, U.S. Postal Service and XPO Logistics are reporting delivery delays across the Southeast.
Logistics providers caution that truckload capacity in Florida will continue in the immediate aftermath of the storm. Many carriers will switch to bringing in items for clean-up and repairs and hauling necessities such as water. Some freight may need to be held because of power outages or impassable roads at destinations, and many LTL carriers continue to have limited to no service in Florida.
Storm cancels, delays flights
Although Miami International Airport remains open, multiple flights have been delayed or canceled due to Tropical Storm Ian. The thousands of flight cancellations are likely to create ripple effects on airline networks across the country.
Airports in Orlando and Tampa are closed.
Other impacts being felt
CSX shut down several railroad facilities in the Tampa area, in addition to its intermodal hub in Winterhaven and other centers across Florida.
Tropical Storm Ian is tracking northward toward key automotive, agriculture, textile, food processing and industrial hubs in northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, posing potential challenges for major producers.
AIT Worldwide Logistics reported office closures in Orlando and Tampa, and employees are working remotely. Its Miami facility is fully operational but will not deliver to Naples or Fort Myers until Monday at the earliest, the company said.
152
NEVE
SWAMP STORIES
“Historic Levels Of Fraud”: US Watchdog Estimates $45.6 Billion Bilked From Pandemic Unemployment Program
THURSDAY, SEP 29, 2022 – 06:00 PM
A federal watchdog has found that $45.6 billion may have been scammed out of the nation’s unemployment program during the pandemic, as fraudsters used a variety of methods to commit fraud – including using the Social Security numbers of dead people, hard-to-trace emails, and the identities of prisoners who were ineligible for aid.
According to the Washington Post, a Thursday report by the inspector general for the Labor Department reveals that the program – which helped some 57 million families in the first five months of the crisis – became an easy target for criminals.
To siphon away funds, scammers allegedly filed billions of dollars in unemployment claims in multiple states simultaneously and relied on suspicious, hard-to-trace emails. In some cases, they used more than 205,000 Social Security numbers that belonged to dead people. Other suspected criminals obtained benefits using the identities of prisoners who were ineligible for aid.
But officials at the watchdog office warned their accounting still may be incomplete: They said they were not able to access more updated federal prisoner data from the Justice Department, and acknowledged that they only focused their report on “high risk” areas for fraud. The two factors raised the prospect that they could uncover billions of dollars in additional theft in the months to come. -WaPo
At least 1,000 individuals have been charged with unemployment fraud and related crimes, according to a Thursday announcement. DOJ director of covid-related enforcement, Kevin Chambers, described the situation as “unprecedented fraud,” while the IG’s office says it’s opened roughly 190,000 related investigative matters since the beginning of the pandemic.
The new report highlights challenges faced by government watchdogs and regulators, two years after what became roughly $5 trillion in (inflationary) pandemic aid was printed in response to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Last week, federal prosecutors charged 47 individuals from the Minnesota Somali community for allegedly bilking $250 million in Covid-19 federal funds meant for a child nutrition program, in what the DOJ described as the largest single fraud case related to pandemic aid to date.Twitter via @LouRaguse
Meanwhile, federal investigators are looking into roughly $1 trillion in loans an grants designed to help small businesses.
“Hundreds of billions in pandemic funds attracted fraudsters seeking to exploit the UI program — resulting in historic levels of fraud and other improper payments,” said Labor Department inspector general, Larry Turner.
Turner’s office found that between March and October 2020, there were roughly $16 billion in potential fraud in key high-risk areas.
One lawmaker actually who’s actually pursuing the fraud is Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), who chairs the Senate Finance Committee. Wyden praised the “strong effort to identify criminals,” but stressed the need to overhaul the jobless benefits system.
“I’ve long said we need a national set of technology and security standards for state systems to better prevent this kind of fraud, and we’re going to keep working to get our reforms passed,” he added.
END
DOJ Seeks Another Delay In Turning Over Documents From Mar-a-Lago To Trump
The DOJ was supposed to provide electronic copies of the documents to Trump attorneys and U.S. District Judge Raymond Dearie, the special master in the case, no later than Sept. 26. But the government sought and received a delay of four days for the production.
DOJ lawyers said that the delay was warranted because of issues contracting a vendor to scan and store the materials.
Those issues have not been resolved, DOJ lawyers said in a new filing entered late Sept. 27.
None of the five vendors proposed by the government “were willing to be engaged by Plaintiff,” the lawyers said, citing attorneys for Trump.
To try to avoid further delay, the government is moving to contract directly with a vendor, instead of having Trump’s team do so.
“Based on its prior experience and discussions today with the vendors, the government is highly confident at least one vendor will respond” and agree to perform the work, according to the DOJ.
Seven-Day Delay
But because vendors still need to respond to the government’s work request, the government says it doesn’t know when the vendor will have the materials ready for Trump’s lawyers.
Below is today’s column in Fox.com on the new disclosures in a new book on the Trump impeachment. The authors allege that House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., and his staff raised virtually the same procedural objections that I made in my history about the House abandoning both historical precedent and due process guarantees. The book directly contradicts public statements made by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff.
Here is the column:
“They’re going to argue we don’t have due process for Trump. Why make that argument real?” Those words from House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., stand out in the shocking disclosures in the recently released book, “Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’s Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump,” Politico Playbook co-author Rachael Bade and Washington Post reporter Karoun Demirjian recount how House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff and Speaker Nancy Pelosi overrode objections from Nadler that the lack of witness testimony was a denial of due process for then President Donald Trump. He put it plainly and correctly: “It’s unfair, and it’s unprecedented, and it’s unconstitutional.”
It was a strikingly familiar objection. I testified at the first Trump impeachment before Nadler and criticized the lack of any factual witnesses or Judiciary Committee hearings supporting the articles of impeachment. The book details a position of the House Judiciary that is strikingly similar to my own testimony.
The book, however, has not brought a sense of vindication as much as frustration. Nadler publicly toed the line with Pelosi to support a process that he reportedly viewed as abusive and “unconstitutional” even as some of us were set upon by a legion of irate liberal pundits. Worse yet, the book indicates that the bar on witnesses was not compelled by the schedule as claimed by Pelosi and Schiff, but raw politics. It was, I wrote, a decision to follow the rule of Franz Kafka’s character that “my guiding principle is this: Guilt is never to be doubted.”
On the second impeachment, they went one better. They jettisoned any witnesses (including legal experts) in what I called a “snap impeachment.”
During the impeachments, I suggested that the reason was not any limitation of time but tactical advantage. In both rushed impeachments, Pelosi then held back the articles of impeachment before sending them to the Senate – destroying even the pretense of exigency as the reason for abandoning due process.
The book appears to confirm the Katkaesque logic. It states that neither Pelosi nor Schiff wanted to risk a witness or member going off script by allowing true due process. When Nadler raised historical and constitutional objections, Schiff reported barked back that he needed to what “his tone” and complained “you’re putting us in a box.”
That box is an effort to guarantee fairness and Nadler reportedly and correctly observed that “if we’re going to impeach, we need to show the country that we gave the president ample opportunity to defend himself.”
In my testimony in the only hearing held by the Judiciary Committee in the two impeachments, I objected that “this is wrong. It is not wrong because President Trump is right…No, it is wrong because this is not how an American president should be impeached.”
I relied primarily on the Nixon and Clinton cases to show how far the House was far outside any historical navigational beacons. It turns out Nadler and his staff reached the same conclusion and cautioned Schiff and Pelosi to “Stick close to the Nixon and Clinton cases.” They refused.
Dan Goldman, Schiff’s lead counsel and the Democratic nominee to represent New York’s 10th District in the House, scoffed and mocked Nadler: “Jerry Nadler? With him, everything is negotiable.” When Nadler’s team argued for an approach (as I did) “more like Nixon,” Schiff’s team reportedly dismissed due process and said, “F— Donald Trump.”
People can disagree on the merits of the impeachments, but both impeachments were an abusive use of the Article I authority in the denial of any substantive hearings before the Judiciary Committee. While it was constitutional in the sense that there is no required process, it was wrong from both a historical and procedural perspective. Of course, the public was not allowed to either hear from witnesses or know that even Democrats like the Judiciary Chair objected on these same grounds.
Indeed, when the House elected to pursue the January 6th investigation, they followed the same playbook with Schiff as a member. Traditionally, each party is allowed to pick its own members on such committees. However, Pelosi rejected two of the Republican members and the rest of the party (except outgoing Reps. Lynne Cheney and Adam Kinzinger) boycotted the hearings. The result was the same one-sided production without a hint of fairness or balance in exploring possible defenses or counterarguments.
What is most sad about this account is that for a critical moment Nadler rose to the occasion. He defended not just the historical authority of his committee but the constitutional norm, even for a president despised by Democrats. That twilight moment of clarity was soon lost. The book recounts how Nadler made an “effort to get back into Pelosi’s good graces.”
When I testified, there was not a hint of concern or dissent.
Nadler and the Democrats scoffed at the notion that the impeachment departed from core historical precedent or legal protections.
They had, as Nadler predicted, made the due process arguments “real,” but no one cared. To paraphrase Goodman’s reported observation, in Washington, “everything is negotiable.”
KING REPORT
The King Report September 30, 2022 Issue 6855
Independent View of the News
German CPI in North Rhine-Westphalia hit 10.1% y/y in September, the highest inflation since WWII.
The DAX sank as much as 2.6% (10:37 ET), but a late rally truncated the loss to -1.8%.
BBG’s @JavierBlas: *GERMAN COALITION AGREES CAP ON GAS PRICES *SCHOLZ: GOVERNMENT TO INJECT €200B INTO STABILIZATION FUND *HABECK: GERMANY IN CRITICAL SITUATION, GAS USE MUST DECLINE *LINDNER: WE CAN NO LONGER EXPECT TO RECEIVE GAS FROM RUSSIA
CNN: Germany will borrow nearly $200 billion to cap consumers’ energy bills
The pound got hammered during Asian trading but rebounded to a 1.6% gain against dollar 20 minutes before the European close– probably on Q3 performance gaming and some covert hectoring.
BoE: Recent developments in the economy and markets − speech by Huw Pill (BoE chief economist) The intervention announced yesterday by the Bank is intended to facilitate an orderly adjustment in the positions and structures that were threatening to generate dysfunction in that market segment. By acting in the gilt market to facilitate the necessary reduction of leverage – or at least creating an environment where that reduction can take place – the Bank is preventing a self-sustaining vicious spiral of collateral calls, forced sales and disappearing liquidity from emerging in a core segment of the financial markets. Restoring market functioning helps reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses. The intervention is targeted specifically at that market segment where problems were emerging. And it is time-limited, because the Bank buys assets in order to sell them on afterwards, thereby helping the orderly re-shuffling of holdings of and exposures to longer-dated gilts that needs to take place… They are not intended to cap or control longer-term interest rates or to offer more favourable underlying financing conditions to the institutions involved – or, for that matter, to the Government – than would have prevailed in an orderly market environment… That is why yesterday’s intervention is a “temporary and targeted financial stability operation”. It is intended to allow the inevitable and necessary re-pricing of financial assets stemming from recent macroeconomic news – including last week’s fiscal announcements – to take place in an orderly way. So, yesterday’s intervention was not a monetary policy operation. The temporary and targeted character of the Bank’s intervention is key to the distinction between financial stability and monetary policy that I have emphasised here… (Beaucoup malarkey in Pill’s comments!) Recent fiscal announcements will, on balance, provide a stimulus to demand relative to supply in the short to medium term. We will come to our more complete assessment in November… https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2022/september/huw-pill-speech-at-the-institute-of-directors-dinner
The BOE’s chief economist says the central bank will need to mount a “significant” response to government tax cuts when policymakers next meet in Novemberhttps://t.co/IcLPzyRl39
US Q2 GDP was the expected -0.6%. Consumption was revised to 2% from 1.5%. The GDP Price Index was revised to 9% from 8.9%; and Core PCE was revised to 4.7% from 4.4%. Gross domestic income was revised downward by $47.4 billion to $305.7 billion.
Jobless claims hit five-month low despite Fed’s efforts to slow labor market The drop to 193,000 was below the estimate of 215,000…Central bank officials specifically have pointed to the tight labor market and its upward pressure on salaries as a target of the policy tightening. Stocks plunged following the report while Treasury yields were higher… https://t.co/y5ndg1voJh
WSJ Fed whisper @NickTimiraos: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard explains how to think about the Fed’s new FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) framework. There are two branches to this: If the US is in a low inflation environment, then FAIT is operative. If the US is in a high inflation environment, “See Volcker.” FAIT isn’t operating
St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s remarks on ThursdayWe have quite a bit of inflation in the USJob Market Extremely Strong, Latest Claims ‘Super-Low’It is imperative to avoid ‘70s inflationVery tight labor market no matter how you cut itBad Idea to Change Fed’s Inflation TargetNeed some time to assess impact of balance sheet runoffWe will probably need “higher for longer” interest rates than markets previously anticipatedFed will have to be careful to overestimate a drop in inflation as it returns to 2% The usual suspects keep complaining that the Fed is hiking rates too fast. Of course, these are traders and money managers that are losing money on their holdings. Where were these people when the Fed was monetizing MBS during a housing bubble?
ESZs traded sideways mostly in negative territory during Asian trading. At 1:35 ET, ESZs broke down. A 39-handle decline ended at 3:51 ET. The ensuing rally took ESZs from 3677.25 to 3710.50 at 7:21 ET. ESZs sank 30 handles after the US Initial Jobless Claims showed a surprising decline. However, the usual rally for the NYSE open appeared. It ended at 9:20 ET.
ESZs and stocks tumbled after the NYSE open. ESZs hit a daily low of 3631.25 at 10:13 ET. Dip buying conflated with Q3 performance gaming for the European close to produce a 33-handle ESZ rally by 11:05 ET. ESZs and stocks then peaked at 11:54 ET. It was downhill until a bottom appeared at 14:20 ET.
The late afternoon rally on the usual manipulation plus Q3 performance gaming generated a 35-handle ESZ rally by 15:37 ET. After a modest respite, ESZs and stocks inched higher into the close.
Positive aspects of previous session The pound rallied sharply after declining smartly during Asian trading
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks got hammered and bonds sank (-27/32) despite BoE intervention on Wednesday Commodities soared, led by energy commodities Apple (-6% at low) got crushed; this killed Fangs and sent QQQs (Naz 100 ETF) to a 52-week low There is something very dangerous lurking in the global financial system
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who else is in trouble? How many are in trouble?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3645.96 Previous session High/Low: 3697.01; 3610.40
Parents were demonized for demanding schools reopen sooner. Now, we know they were right. https://t.co/QF5pfiO0iv
Central banks have bailed out governments, banks, industries, investors, and pensions for decades. Now, CDSs, especially on England, indicate that the next crisis is sovereign debt – and inflation is present now!
@Convertbond: 2008: Banking Credit Crisis; 2022: Sovereign Credit Crisishttps://t.co/LvAhCUqhCD
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: US investment-grade bond funds suffered their third-largest cash exit on record, with investors yanking $10.3 billion out of the funds in the week ended Sept. 28; Refinitiv Lipper. It marks the sixth straight week of withdrawals, via @TheTerminal https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1575583113606209536
Today is the end of Q3; the need to game Q3 performance is extremely high. Traders and money managers will try to push stuff higher, especially after being thwarted on Thursday by events and news.
Traders want to play for the Friday rally and Q3 performance gaming. ‘Tis why ESZs are +11.50 and the pound is 1.1161 at 20:00 ET. USZs are -14/32. The trends are clear; the magnitude and depth of ‘the problems’ is not clear. Be safe! The markets are in a perilous technical and psychological state.
Expected economic data: Aug Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Sending 0.2%, PCE Deflator 0.15 m/m, PCE Core Deflator 0.1% m/m; Sept Chicago PMI 51.8; UM Sentiment 59.5, Current Conditions 58.9, Expectations 59.9; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8:30 & 12:30 ET, Fed Gov. Brainard 9 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 11 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 16:15 ET
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4739.37 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4180.10 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3830.66 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3706.96 triggers a buy signal
@charliespiering: No press briefing on the WH schedule today after @presssec Karine Jean-Pierre’s embarrassing attempt to explain Joe Biden’s “Where’s Jackie” moment yesterdayhttps://t.co/7GooCQHk9D
@RRHElections: As a deadly Category 4 hurricane is slamming into Florida President Joe Biden is off attending a political fundraiser. Americans are literally dying in FL & Biden is literally off raising money to try & unseat the Governor who is dealing with the crisis. https://t.co/hr1f02IoYO
Politico Co-Founder Says Constitution Must Be Rewritten to Stop Donald Trumphttps://t.co/eCiSIxPnAo
FBI seized almost 200,000 pages of documents from Trump at Mar-a-Lago, lawyers say in court filing (That’s a multiple more than the 11k the FBI/DoJ claims.) https://t.co/M5M3yskwuW
30 ex-FBI agents stand up to support whistleblower who exposed agency’s political bias “It’s time to stop the FBI from being the enforcer of a political party’s ideology,” says Ernie Tibaldi, a retired agent from San Francisco. “We need to re-establish the FBI as the apolitical and independent law enforcement entity that it always was.”… “No real FBI agent would defend the position of using SWAT teams to arrest non-violent senior citizens and others with political opinions not currently tolerated by this administration, compounded by the idea that many of these cases involve misdemeanor criminal charges… https://nypost.com/2022/09/28/30-ex-fbi-agents-stand-up-to-support-whistleblower-who-exposed-agencys-political-bias/
WSJ: Merrick Garland and a Michigan Mother The Attorney General’s 2021 memo to the FBI is still causing mischief for parents. Sandra Hernden’s son Conor has special needs, and since the Covid pandemic she’s been complaining that the board’s policies—from closures to virtual learning—led to her son’s GPA dropping to 1.5 from 3.5. Board members responded to her criticism by reporting her first to her then-employer, the Harper Woods police department, and then to the Department of Justice… More disturbing is how school board president Frank Bednard reacted. He alerted his fellow board members that he’d forwarded to DOJ an email from Ms. Hernden along with a complaint about her and Mothers of Liberty (an apparent reference to the conservative Moms for Liberty, which Ms. Hernden had joined). It’s notable that Mr. Bednard’s email was dated Oct. 5, 2021. That’s the day after Mr. Garland’s memo directing the FBI to investigate complaints of threats to school officials… https://www.wsj.com/articles/merrick-garland-and-a-michigan-mother-sandra-hernden-national-school-boards-association-parents-fbi-memo-11663875697
@greg_price11: Biden wanders away from the podium as his FEMA administrator attempted to lead him in another direction. https://t.co/vpmqMBLaK4
WaPo: In a first, U.S. appoints a diplomat for plants and animals (Not a parody) Monica Medina (The wife of Biden’s CoS) is taking on a new role as special envoy for biodiversity and water resources, the State Department announced Wednesday… (Have you discerned what is occurring?) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/29/first-us-appoints-diplomat-plants-animals/
@RNCResearch: Kamala Harris at the DMZ (to GIs) : “Have you seen the photographs from the Webb telescope? We invested in this telescope and the images just came back, and they show us 3 billion years back… galaxies we didn’t know existed…” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1575579769575448582
Anyone can misspeak. However repeatedly misspeaking is a problem for high government officials – and the frequent WH excuses or gaslighting for the misspeaking is insulting.
President Trump is openly warning about the possibility of nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Trump has offered to negotiate a peace deal, but no one is taking him up on his offer. Instead, the U.S. Congress has approved a fresh $12 billion to keep it all going. There are zero peace talks going on now, and Biden and NATO do not want them. They want war, and it’s only a matter of time with the latest blowing up of the Nord Stream Pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia to Germany.
Hurricane Ian has landed in Southwest Florida, and it has caused severe damage. Governor Ron DeSantis said it brought a 500-year flood to some parts of the Sunshine State. Estimates are up to $40 billion in damages that were caused by the hurricane. The mayor of Fort Myers Beach says the city is 90% gone, and there is nothing to come home to.
The vax keeps killing and maiming people, and they keep injecting this bioweapon into unsuspecting people. The latest death was a one-month only baby that needed a routine blood infusion and got vaxed blood. It killed the child, according to his mother. Now, we find out the American Red Cross is not separating vaxed blood from unvaxed blood. Could this be as deadly and damaging as the injections? To the mother of the one-month old given vaxed blood, the answer is sadly, yes. The vax is still finding a way to kill even if it is not injected.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.30.22.
Three-time, best-selling author Nomi Prins will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Prins will talk about her new book “Permanent Distortion.” She will explain the problems we have are permanent because of all the money printing by world governments and what comes nex
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