OCT 3/SPEC SHORTS CAUGHT OFF SIDE AS GOLD AND SILVER RALLY BIG TIME: GOLD RISES $29.30 TO $1693.40//SILVER UP A HUGE $1.46 TO $20.53//PLATINUM UP $35.30 TO $902.60//PALLADIUM UP $58.00 TO $2240.40//PREMIUS ON PHYSICAL SILVER RISING TO BETWEEN $9.50 AND $12.00 PER OZ//CREDIT SUISSE LOOKS TO BE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE AS ITS CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (A BET ON ITS SURVIVAL) SKYROCKETS//REVOLT BREWING IN ENGLAND AS PROTESTERS BURN THEIR ENERGY BILLS//UK PRIME MINISTER DOES A U TURN AND CANCELS TAX BREAKS//COVID UPDATES: SWEDEN NO LONGER RECOMMENDS VACCINATIONS FOR AGES 12 TO 1//DR MICHAEL HUDSON: A MUST READ ON THE FATE OF GERMANY//PEPE ESCOBAR PROVIDES MORE FUE TO THE STORY THAT IT WAS THE USA THAT BOMBED OUT NORDSTEAM ONE AND TWO//ISM MANUFACTURING (usa) FALTERS LAST MONTH/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP  $29.30 to $1693.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $1.46 to $20.53

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1699.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.70

New: early this morning//very ominous:

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 12:15 p.m., a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board’s Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board’s offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. and by audio/video conference call, to consider the following matters of official Board business.

Bitcoin morning price: $19,235 DOWN 496

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,491 DOWN 200

Platinum price closing UP 35.30 AT  $902.60

Palladium price; closing UP $58.05  at $2240.40

END

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,662.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/30/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/04/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 21
104 C MIZUHO 13
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 27
323 H HSBC 115
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 2
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 34
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 34
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 96
661 C JP MORGAN 266
685 C RJ OBRIEN 5
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 6
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 14
690 C ABN AMRO 101
700 C UBS 572
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 97 39
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 1
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 4
880 C CITIGROUP 151
905 C ADM 13 3


TOTAL: 813 813
MONTH TO DATE: 20,641

JPMORGAN STOPPED  266/813 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:   813  

20,641 NOTICES FOR 2,064,100 OZ //64.202 TONNES

total notices so far: 20,641 contracts for 2,064,100 oz (64.202 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICES FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  55 :  for 275,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $29.30

VERY STRANGE!!

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45

TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.46

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF OF 1.013 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 480.917 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2401  CONTRACTS TO 127,382 (ALL TIME LOW)    AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.31 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.31)  AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 2228 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE DID HAVE HUGE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS WITH THE BANKERS CONTINUALLY ON THE BUY SIDE. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) CONTINUAL HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A ZERO QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –53

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 50  contracts:  0.250 million oz  OR 0.250MILLION OZ PER DAY. (50 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 0.25  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2401 DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.31 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 50 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER ADDITIONS A//  NET SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 2351 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 11.755MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 3  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  15,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 21,464 CONTRACTS  TO 432,024 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED —  -186 CONTRACTS.

.

THE GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE  HAD HUGE FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION WHICH HAD NO EFFECT ON PRICE//  CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF  1800 OZ//NEW STANDING 66.155 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $3.75 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 17,778 OI CONTRACTS 55.172 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3726 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 432,024

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,738 CONTRACTS  WITH 21,464 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3726 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,738 CONTRACTS OR 54,59 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3726) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (21,464): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,738 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1800 OZ QUEUE JUMP///NEW STANDING 66.155 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/5/FINAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

3726 CONTRACTS OR 372600 OZ OR 11.58 TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3726 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 11.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  11.58/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.309% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  11.58  TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2401 CONTRACT OI TO  127,382 AND FURTHER FROM TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 50 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 50  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  50 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2401  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 50  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 2351  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11.755 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.31

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 143.32 PTS OR 0.83%    /The Nikkei closed UP 278.58PTS OR 1.07%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.33%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1471//    /Oil UP TO 83.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.48    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAK AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAK

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 21,278 CONTRACTS TO 432,210 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS HUGE  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF $3.75  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3728 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3726 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :3726 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3529 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 17,552  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3726 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 21,278  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $3.75.  WE HAD OUR FINAL CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION WHICH SURPRISINGLY HAD NO EFFECT ON THE GOLD PRICE//WE HAD SPEC SHORT DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER  WITH BANKERS TAKING THE BUY SIDE.   IT IS BECOMING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR OUR SHORTERS.  THUS, WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS CONTINUING TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE HUGELY LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS ONCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN TO ANNIHILATE THE SPECS. (SEE THE TED BUTLER ARTICLE ON THIS MATTER/FRIDAY//SEPT 30)

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (66.155),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  66.155 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $3.75) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,552 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A HUGE LOSS  OF 55,172 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SOCT. (66.155 TONNES)…ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THE CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION

WE HAD -186  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,738 CONTRACTS OR 1,773,800  OZ OR  55.172 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 165,761///  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  217,443/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 3

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz40,638.860 oz
Brinks











 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 18,560.923 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today813   notice(s)
81300  OZ
2.528 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1423 contracts 
142,300oz
4.435
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month20,641 notices
2,064,100
64.202 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks: 40,638.860 oz  

total:  40,638.600    oz   

total in tonnes: 1.264 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

JPM: dealer to customer;  32,118.822 0z 

JPM enhanced: customer to dealer:  41,736.838

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 1441 contracts having LOST 19,810 contracts . We had  19,828 contracts

filed on Friday, so we gained 18 contracts or an additional 1800 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct.

This is the second straight delivery month where we witness QUEUE jumping on day two of the delivery cycle.

We will gain gold oz standing on each and every trading day from this day forth until the conclusion of October.

(remember that queue jumping is really EFP’s exercised from London for gold underwritten by COMEX based bankers)

November GAINED 47 contracts to stand at 2138

December LOST 1978 contracts DOWN to 379,397

We had 813 notice(s) filed today for 81300 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 813 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 266 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,641) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 1441 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 813 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,126900 OZ  OR 66.155 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (20,641) x 100 oz+   (xx)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (813} x 100 oz} which equals 2,126,900 oz standing OR 66.155  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  66.155 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,057,668.110 oz   64.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  26,318,372.766 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,092,999.826  OZ (407.24 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,225,372.940 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,035.331 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 343.234 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 3//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,428,982.600 oz
Brinks

CNT
Delaware
HSBC
JPMorgan
Manfra


















 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,476,137.010 oz
HSBC
CNT







 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)
15,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)261 contracts 
(1,305,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)58 contracts
 290,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into HSBC:  581,708.100 oz

ii) Into CNT: 581,708.100 oz

Total deposits: 1,476,137.010 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 161.817million oz/313.059million =51.69% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 6

i)Out of CNT  122,116.340 oz

ii)Out of  Brinks: 595,746.250 oz

iii) Out of Delaware  15,288.988 oz

iv) Out of hSBC:  2051.440 oz

v) JPMorgan: 1,129,168.772 oz

vi) Out of Manfra: 564,010.810 oz

total withdrawals:  2,428,982.810  oz

 adjustments: // 5   

 DEALER TO CUSTOMER:

i)Brinks: 1,102,972.800 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 41.112 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 313.059 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 261 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 55 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 55 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY

SILVER CONTRACTS STANDING FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER GAINED 18 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 283

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2541 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 111,483

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for  15,000 oz

Comex volumes:81,613// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65,273 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  58 x 5,000 oz = 290,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(261) and the number of notices served upon today 3  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 58 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (261)  – number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 1,580,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:52,182// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 61,393contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 939.70 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 480.917 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Bank Of England Rings The Mother Of All Bells

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 12:25 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week, the Bank of England suddenly pivoted.

It gave up its inflation fight to rescue its pension funds and bond market. What exactly happened? And what does it tell us about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight? Peter Schiff explained it all on his podcast.

There is an old expression — “No one rings a bell” — meaning there’s no warning when there is a major top or bottom in the markets. But Peter said there often is a bell but nobody hears it. Last week, Peter said we got the “mother of all bells.”

It was literally Big Ben that rang because the bell was in England… The Bank of England was the first major central bank to blink in this global game of chicken.

Last week, the Bank of England pivoted and returned to quantitative easing.

Peter called this development “very significant.” Because up until the announcement, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was just as hawkish as Jerome Powell. The Bank of England raised interest rates from 0.1% last December to roughly 2.25%, including a 50 basis point rate hike in August. It was the largest BoE rate hike in 27 years.

He was talking tough about how resolute the Bank of England was to fighting inflation. They’ve got the highest inflation in Europe. It’s way above their 2% target. It’s a double-digit number. It’s above 10%.”

Bailey even said he was committed to bringing down inflation no matter the cost and said he was willing to endure some pain, just like Jerome Powell.

Well, that was all a bluff because we got some pain overnight and Bailey folded like a cheap suit. And instead of quantitative tightening, they’re back to quantitative easing. The rate hikes are probably permanently on hold because the Bank of England refused to allow a potential crisis to unfold as a result of rising interest rates.”

The crisis manifested itself in the UK pension system with plunging bond prices. CNBC summed up the problem.

In order to top up the collateral on these bonds, some funds had to raise cash. But due to the speed of this crisis, many funds were caught out and were forced to liquidate their next most liquid assets, long-term bonds or gilts, causing prices of bonds to fall even more.”

In order to stabilize bond prices, the BoE stepped in to buy long-term bonds, creating artificial demand and propping up prices.

This pension problem isn’t exclusive to the United Kingdom. Pensions systems worldwide face the same issue, including in the United States.

When interest rates fall to zero, bond holdings in pension funds don’t generate as much interest income. Pensions need this income to pay benefits. So, in order to boost their incomes, pension funds borrow money at low interest rates to buy new long-term bonds using existing bonds as collateral. They make up for lower yields by holding more bonds.

But when interest rates rise, the value of their bond portfolio collapses even as the interest on their debt rises.

All of the pension funds that had borrowed short to buy long-term bonds were getting crushed because the value of the bonds they owned was collapsing and the cost of servicing the debt was soaring, and they were in a position where they were going to get margin calls. Those margin calls were going to force an already collapsing bond market to fall even more and that would have wreaked havoc throughout the United Kingdom.”

In simple terms, instead of raising pension contributions or cutting pension benefits to deal with their shortfalls, pension managers took the easy, but reckless way out and borrowed money.

On top of that, the newly elected British prime minister rewarded voters with a big tax cut that threw even more gasoline on the inflationary fire.

Great Britain was looking at a potential crash in the bond market and the Bank of England rode in to save the day.

The Bank of England folded. They pivoted. They decided to launch a new QE program. Remember, yesterday, they were committed to quantitative tightening. Now they said they will buy whatever it takes. They have committed to another QE infinity in order to prop up the bond market. They now have to print British pounds to buy these gilts. So, instead of fighting inflation, which yesterday was public enemy number one – it had to be brought down at any cost – now, all of a sudden, when you see the cost, well, forget about that. We’re now going to create inflation.”

The central bankers in England claim this is not a monetary policy decision. It was a move to avert a crisis. But as Peter said, it is most definitely a monetary policy decision.

That’s the only policy they make — monetary policy. Deciding to launch QE is monetary policy. I don’t care what you want to pretend. That’s what it is.”

The BoE also said it just wants to maintain an orderly market.

Well, you can’t fight inflation and maintain an orderly market because the markets have been propped up by inflation. So, if you’re going to fight inflation, you’d better be prepared for a disorderly market. And until yesterday, the Bank of England was bluffing that they were. But now that their bluff has been called, they had to show their cards, and they’re holding nothing. And so, inflation won.”

You might think this has nothing to do with you if you’re reading this in the US. The problem is, the Federal Reserve is also bluffing. It’s only a matter of time before their bluff gets called.

Is the Federal Reserve, when confronted with the same situation, will they make a different choice than the Bank of England? Does the Federal Reserve have more integrity? Are these guys willing to allow a financial crisis? Because the same thing is going to happen here. We’ve got all sorts of leverage in our markets. We’ve got a bigger debt bubble than the British. It’s just that the day of reckoning for us is not going to come as early as it did for them because the dollar is going up.”

When that day of reckoning does come, Peter said he expects Jerome Powell to make the same decision as Andrew Bailey.

I don’t care how much he wants to bark about being tough on inflation. At the end of the day, he will not bite. The Fed is a paper tiger and it will fold just as quickly as the Bank of England when they’re confronted with an actual crisis.”

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

The Credit Default Swap mess of Credit Suisse:

Pam and Russ Martens

Here’s the Chart of the Global Bank Causing Panic in Markets This Morning

Chart 
of Credit Suisse as of Closing Price on Friday, September 
30, 2022

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 3, 2022

The Swiss global bank, Credit Suisse, which is a derivatives counterparty to major Wall Street banks and U.S. insurers, raised alarm bells in markets on Friday and is raising more anxiety this morning. Its 5-year credit default swap (CDS), a measurement of its risk of defaulting on its debt, jumped to 250 basis points on Friday and traded as high as 350 basis points in early morning trade today.

The big move in the CDS on Credit Suisse is further impacting the price of its common stock. The shares closed on Friday in New York at $3.92, just pennies away from its all-time low, then dropped another 11 percent in early morning trading in Europe today.

When a major derivatives counterparty begins to see a blowout in its credit default swaps, that impacts the stock prices of all major Wall Street banks with significant exposure to derivatives. It also raises the risk of systemic contagion — as occurred in the financial crisis of 2008 when Citigroup and Lehman Brothers were teetering and were major derivative counterparties. The chart above shows the dramatic declines in not just Credit Suisse over the past year but in Nomura (NMR), Deutsche Bank (DB), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Citigroup (C).

The reputation of Credit Suisse has taken major hits in the past few years. On March 26, 2021, the family office hedge fund, Archegos Capital Management, defaulted on margin calls to its prime brokers and went belly up, leaving major investment banks with more than $10 billion in losses. Credit Suisse took the lion’s share of those losses, acknowledging a loss of more than $5 billion.

To understand the nature of the wildly risky structure of the derivatives that led to the blowup of Archegos, see our report: Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules.

Credit Suisse was also deeply enmeshed in the Greensill Capital scandal and has suffered serious reputational damage as a result.

Making stock investors equally nervous is the fact that Credit Suisse admitted in its 2021 Annual Report that some of its billions in derivatives are difficult to accurately price. It writes:

“In addition, the Group holds financial instruments for which no prices are available and for which have few or no observable inputs (level 3). For these instruments, the determination of fair value requires subjective assessment and judgment depending on liquidity, pricing assumptions, the current economic and competitive environment and the risks affecting the specific instrument. In such circumstances, valuation is determined based on management’s own judgments about the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability (including assumptions about risk). These instruments include certain OTC derivatives, including interest rate, foreign exchange, equity and credit derivatives, certain corporate equity-linked securities, mortgage-related securities, private equity investments, certain loans and credit products, including leveraged finance, certain syndicated loans and certain high yield bonds.”

Under “Major Risks,” the 2021 Annual Report for Credit Suisse calls out the following risk for its Investment Bank:

“Loan underwriting and lending commitments to corporate clients, markets and trading activities including securities financing and derivatives products with global institutional clients, including banks, insurance companies, asset managers and hedge funds; through the use of derivatives clients may take positions that are exposed to movements in risk factors such as interest rates, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or equity prices.”

All eyes on Wall Street are going to be watching the price action of Credit Suisse and other major banks on Wall Street this week in an effort to discern which banks are most heavily exposed to Credit Suisse as a derivatives counterparty.

Derivatives by 
Counterparty Credit Rating Reported by Credit Suisse in 2021 
Annual Report

Derivatives by Counterparty Credit Rating Reported by Credit Suisse in Its 2021 Annual Report

end

Lawrie Williams

very important read, especially the last paragraph

Lawrie Williams: Gold and silver make gains in nervous markets

The gold price picked up nicely, and silver even more so in percentage terms, when markets opened in Europe and the U.S. on Monday, although it remains to be seen whether the gains so made can be sustained throughout the day, let alone the week ahead. The principal stimulus appears to have been renewed safe haven demand following President Putin’s announcement on Friday that Russia was annexing Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts as integral parts of the Russian state. This followed on from the hastily-arranged dubious referenda which had appeared to confirm, according to the Russians, that that was the will of the people in those regions by huge majorities. The outcomes of these referenda were largely dismissed as false and unrepresentative by the world at large.

However, the official annexation of these territories into the Russian state, even though some of them are only partially under Russian control, could give President Putin the excuse to describe any Ukrainian attacks on them as an ‘invasion’ of Russia itself and a reason for a massive escalation of hostilities. His partial mobilisation of reservists to support his existing forces could just thus be the beginning, but how the Russian people would see this could be something of a gamble. There already seems to be evidence of a growing build-up of opposition to the existing partial call-up – or is this just Western propaganda?

In any case, the prospects of an escalation of the Ukraine conflict, which currently, at least according to Western media, appears to be going badly for the Russians, has certainly given precious metals prices something of a boost. Equity and bitcoin prices were trending higher too with the U.S. dollar index falling. This had all come about given a sharp fall in market sentiment on the market’s view of the likelihood of yet another 75 basis point rate rise at the November 2nd FOMC meeting. This has now, according to the CME’s Fedwatch Tool come down to a near 50:50 chance of only being a 50 basis point rise and may well slip further during the month between now and the actual meeting date. This has been somewhat coloured by the Bank of England’s recent supportive move, seen by some as a return to Quantitative Easing, in support of the U.K. economy and the pound which had been on a sharp downturn following the recent budget announcement from the new UK Chancellor Kwasi Karteng. The BoE move seems to have stabilised the UK situation and one of the tax reducing measures in the original budget announcement – the withdrawing of the 45% higher tax rate for high earners – has been reversed and the pound has seen something of a recovery on the foreign exchange markets. Nonetheless, the fact that one of the world’s major central banks seemed to be returning to a more stimulative policy raised hopes that the U.S. Fed might consider doing so too.

In the U.S. though, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index figures were released. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and it didn’t make for happy reading, particularly as far as the core inflation index measure was concerned. This rose by 0.4% month-on- month indicating that the Fed’s interest rate raising programme is having little or no effect so far. As it is the core index level which will be of most concern to the Fed this does not suggest that it will likely consider any reduction in its approach to an aggressive interest rate raising policy unless there are strong signs of an inflation turn around within the time period before the next meeting takes place. This is certainly not outside the bounds of possibility, but it would probably be wise to play safe and steer clear of general equities for now. Recession is almost certainly upon us – it is only the depth thereof which is in doubt.

Meanwhile keep a close eye on the Ukraine war and the Russian reaction to any Ukrainian advances in the Russian- claimed territories. If Russia is prepared to seriously escalate its reactions, precious metals – or at least gold and silver – could see further advances, with gold back into the $1,700s and silver maybe into the $21s. There is also a rumour that the OPEC nations may cut oil output which could boost energy prices too. Still difficult times ahead as we enter the northern winter season.

03 Oct 202

-END-

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

An excellent video interviewing of Alasdair Macleod by Andrew Maguire

(GATA/Andrew Maguire)_

Eurasia will lead the world back to gold, Macleod tells Maguire

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-30 21:23Section: Daily Dispatches

9:25p ET Friday, September 30, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Discussing world financial affairs with London monetary metals trader Andrew Maguire on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod says a new world payment system is likely to arise from the Eurasian powers and that it will draw heavily on gold.

Additionally, Macleod notes the steady devaluation of many major currencies and says the entire fiat currency system well may collapse.

The interview is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

London gold dealer Blundell runs out of bullion as the Truss budget shocks Britons

(Spence/Bloomberg/GATA)

London gold dealer runs out of bullion as Truss budget shocks

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-10-01 09:01Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Saturday, October 1, 2022

When the pound slumped as Kwasi Kwarteng presented his mini-budget, some Britons rushed to the safety of a haven that has recently lost its luster: gold.

As the UK currency slid to an all-time low early Monday, bullion priced in pounds climbed close to a record. That would typically encourage selling and deter buyers, but this time round the turmoil in British bond and currency markets increased the allure of the precious metal

“Buying has increased exponentially,” said Ash Kundra, who runs coin dealer J Blundell & Sons in London’s historic Hatton Garden jewelry quarter. “I keep running out of coins. I keep running out of bars.”

The rush for gold in the UK contrasts with the bearish sentiment that has seen dollar prices for the precious metal slump by more than 20% from a March peak, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening makes the non-interest-bearing asset less attractive. Still, bullion’s status as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement is keeping demand from retail investors strong. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/london-gold-dealer-runs-out-of-bars-as-truss-budget-shocks

END

At least the Turkish central bank realizes the lira is in trouble so the country becomes the top gold buying this year.

(Daily Sabah/Istanbul/GATA)

Turkish central bank is top gold buyer among central banks this year

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-10-01 09:10Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Daily Sabah, Istanbul
Friday, September 30, 2022

The Turkish central bank has been the top gold buyer among its global peers so far this year, according to data from the World Gold Council.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye bought around 9 tons of gold in August, the council said Thursday, increasing its total purchases to 84 tons year-to-date

This brought its official gold reserves (central bank plus treasury holdings) to 478 tons, the highest level since the second quarter of 2020, the data showed.

Meanwhile, global central bank net purchases of gold slowed to 20 tons in August, halving month-over-month, Krishan Gopaul, a senior analyst at the gold council for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said in a blog. It marked the fifth consecutive month of net purchases from the central banking sector. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/finance/turkish-central-bank-top-gold-buyer-among-global-peers-this-year

END

Qatar boosts its gold reserves in one month by 14.8 tonnes, the largest per month its history.  It’s reserves now stand at 72.3 tonnes.

(Ronan Manly/Bullion star)

Qatar boosts gold reserves as FIFA World Cup nears

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-10-01 23:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Saturday, October 1, 2022

With many eyes across the world soon turning towards the Gulf State of Qatar as it hosts the 2022 FIFA World Cup later this year, now is a good time to look at another interesting development in the Qatari rmirate — the recent rapid growth of Qatar’s monetary gold reserves.

In August the Qatar central bank raised a few eyebrows when it announced that during July it had purchased about 14.8 tonnes of gold, thereby bringing the country’s official gold reserves to 72.3 tonnes.

This addition to Qatar’s gold holdings was significant because it was both the largest ever single monthly purchase of gold by Qatar’s central bank (or its predecessors), and it also raised Qatar’s monetary gold reserves to their highest level ever. In September the Qataris continued their gold buying, raising their gold reserve holdings to 77 tonnes. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/qatar-ramps-up-its-gold-reserves-as-fifa-world-cup-approaches/

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

LOWEST PREMIUMS FROM MME: IN SILVER $9.50 OVER SPOT

Money Metals News AlertOctober 3, 2022 – Gold and silver prices recovered last week. The Federal Reserve Note “dollar” lost a bit of ground in the currency markets late in the week, after rising to almost 115 on Wednesday. Stocks and bonds got pounded once again.
The metals are starting to show some strength in the face of the rising DXY. Silver, in particular, seems to have put in a bottom.

Silver traded from its low of $17.82/oz to $19.26/oz at the end of September.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded at 109.69 on September 1 and finished the month at 112.17.

10 Oz Silver BarsShop Now >>
The dollar just hit its highest level in 20 years, relative to other fiat currencies, but silver prices moved higher despite that pressure.

Now investors want to see gold prices confirm silver’s relative strength.
 Friday’s Close
(Weekly Gain/Loss)
Monday Morning
(Gain/Loss from Friday’s Close)
Gold$1,669 (+1.1%)$1,678 (+0.5%)Silver$19.26 (+1.0%)$20.42 (+6.0%)Platinum$882 (+0.7%)$901 (+2.2%)Palladium$2,243 (+4.6%)$2,273 (+1.3%)Gold : Silver Ratio (as of Friday’s closing prices) – 86.7 to 1
Mint Shortages Further Pressure Supply Amid High DemandShare this Article:
In August, demand for bullion had slacked a bit from the frenetic pace set over the past two years. But buyers came back with a vengeance during September, and inventories of the most popular products are showing the strain.
Premiums are back on the rise and delivery delays have returned for many items, with silver inventories being hardest hit. Money Metals’ weaker competitors are especially struggling.

Image
As buyers turn away from higher-priced silver coins (particularly the problematic Silver Eagle, one-ounce silver rounds and bars of various sizes are now experiencing supply issues.

The major constraint, once again, is in the capacity of mints and refiners to produce retail bullion products. While demand for 1,000 oz silver bars also appears strong, premiums for those large bars are holding steady.

Money Metals’ Vault Silver storage offering is by far the lowest premium way to acquire silver ounces right now.

If 1,000 oz bar premiums rise, it would be signaling a true shortage of silver. For now, though, the shortage is in the fabrication capacity of mints and refiners who convert large bars into smaller products.

The pressure on premiums has been driven, at least in part, by the U.S. Mint. Despite its obligation to produce coins in quantities “sufficient to meet public demand,” the Mint has done nothing to increase supply.
Demand spiked for bullion products two and a half years ago. Private mints and refiners have been steadily growing capacity, but the U.S. Mint is manufacturing excuses instead.

Congressman Alex Mooney (R-WV) sent a terse letter to Mint Director, Ventris Gibson, just over a month ago.

Ms. Gibson replied last week. She blamed issues on COVID and on the vendors who supply blanks.

ImageRep. Mooney recently chastised the U.S. Mint for mismanagement.
The U.S. Mint’s response letter was predictably long on excuses and short on solutions.

The top U.S. Mint bureaucrat says she hopes to add some new vendors who can produce blanks, rather than gearing up to produce blanks in-house.

There was no mention of plans to dramatically increase inventories during periods when demand is slower. If the Mint has plans to add any people, equipment or in-house capacity, Gibson didn’t discuss that either.
Until and unless the U.S. Mint gets its act together, it remains wise to avoid the extraordinarily high premiums that come with American Eagles – and even consider selling the Silver Eagles you have to Money Metals for $9.50 over spot to redeploy the funds into more ounces in other forms.

Rounds and bars offer much better value – as do many other silver coins.

As alluded to above, the lowest-cost way to own physical bullion is through Vault Silver and Vault Gold. Pricing there is based on large commercial bar premiums, which remain low and stable.

Vault Metals should get a serious look from any investor planning to have their metal stored in a depository. They will also be a good choice for investors who ultimately want to take delivery of metal, but don’t mind buying and storing low-premium metal until the high premiums for deliverable products subside.

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: ALUMINUM

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1471

SHANGHAI CLOSED:

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 143.32 PTS OR 0.83%

2. Nikkei closed UP 278.58 PTS OR 1.07%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  112.36/Euro RISES TO 0.9760

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.239/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.95/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   XX -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.002%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.43%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.20%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.85//

3j Gold at $1665.80//silver at: 19.42  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 57/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 57.88//

3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and  88 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.95DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9888– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9649well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.714 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.698 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,57…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Swing Wildly As Nervous Traders React To Every Rumor In Extremely Illiquid Markets

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 08:04 AM

After a disastrous September, stocks have started off the new month of October – which at least historically tends to do much better than its predecessor – in extremely jittery fashion, with global stocks falling to a two-year low and US equity futures first sliding as much as 0.6%, before rising as much as 0.7% in what can only be described as an extremely illiquid market where Emini top of book liquidity is now at or below 1 million. Nasdaq futures were flat, as was the dollar while 10Y yields slumped perhaps in response to Mark Cabana’s latest note predicting a Fed “Twist” operation is on the horizon as the TSY market faces “breakdown.” 

Risk got a boost after the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng dropped a plan unviled just 10 days ago, to abolish a 45% rate of income tax for the country’s highest earners, claiming it is helping to preserve credibility when in reality it achieved just the opposite. On the other hand, the continue blow out in Credit Suisse CDS, indicative of a potential “New Lehman”, pushed the company’s credit risk to new record highs, surpassing even the Lehman crisis wides, and sending the company’s stock to new all time lows as bets that the Swiss lender will blow up next soar.

In premarket trading, Tesla (TSLA US) fell as much as 6.5% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle maker missed third-quarter deliveries as it struggled to get its cars to customers. Shares of fellow EV makers are also under pressure on Monday as the ongoing supply- chain snarls might affect peers as they ramp up production. On the other end, energy stocks rose as the OPEC+ alliance considered its biggest production cut since the pandemic, sending West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to just over $83 a barrel. Chevron (CVX US) +2.9% and Exxon (XOM US) +2.9%

Other notable premarket movers:

  • Wells Fargo (WFC US) shares advance as much as 1.2% in US premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the investment bank to buy from neutral, while Citigroup shares drop as much as 1.1% after the broker downgraded it to neutral from buy.
  • Myovant Sciences (MYOV US) shares gain 26% after the company confirmed it has received a proposal from Sumitovant Biopharma and Sumitomo Pharma to acquire its outstanding shares for $22.75 per share in cash, according to a statement. .
  • Shares in LiveWire (LVWR US) gain 65% in US premarket trading. The move came after the standalone electric motorcycle brand spun out of Harley- Davidson raised $295 million on Sept. 27 after closing its merger with AEA-Bridges Impact Corp.
  • DocuSign (DOCU US) fell 3.5% in US premarket trading after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the stock to underweight from equal-weight, saying that increasing competition, e-signature commoditization and pricing pressures create incremental downside

As Bloomberg notes, global markets remain jittery over the potential impact of monetary tightening on the economy after central banks, including the Federal Reserve, reiterated their resolve to contain runaway inflation. US stocks ended the previous quarter with a third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009 after the Federal Reserve delivered a third jumbo hike last month. Traders now await US jobs data later this week to gauge the path of the economy and Fed policy.

“The Fed is actively trying to tighten financial conditions and weaker equity markets is one way you get there,” said Colin Asher, a senior economist Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “Because inflation is so high central banks will be wary of declaring victory just yet.”

In Europe, stocks fell as the region’s energy crisis threatened to escalate further;  the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.3%. The CAC 40 lags, dropping 1.4%. Tech, banks and financial services are the worst-performing sectors.  The pound and UK government bonds initially rallied after Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng withdrew a proposal to abolish the top 45% tax rate, before ceding some of those gains. The other big focus was Switzerland’s Credit Suisse Group AG, which slumped more than 11% as speculation mounted about the company’s future and its requirement for fresh capital. The cost of insuring against exposure to the company surged to a record high as investors shrugged off Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner’s efforts to calm the market. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • European energy stocks are in focus after oil surges on indications the OPEC+ alliance is considering slashing production by more than 1 million barrels a day when it meets this week. Shell rises as much as 1.9%, BP +2.5%, TotalEnergies +2.5%
  • UK homebuilders outperform as gilt yields ease, following news that Prime Minister Liz Truss has dropped a plan to cut taxes for the highest earners. Vistry gains as much as +3.2%, Crest Nicholson +3.6%, Bellway +3.4%.
  • Tenaris rises as much as 6.9% after the company held an investor presentation in New York on Sept. 30. Mediobanca highlights a “constructive message” from the event and other analysts also note positive indications.
  • Vodafone gains as much as 3.6%, leading European telecom stocks higher, after a Sky News report that the company has accelerated a talk with Three UK about a deal to combine their British operations.
  • Credit Suisse fell as much as 12% to new lows, even after CEO sought to calm markets as credit default swaps climbed to a record.
  • VGP drops as much as 33%, the most intraday on record, after the company and its joint venture partner Allianz Real Estate announced they postpone the seed portfolio closing of the Europa Joint Venture previously envisaged for November due to volatile market environment.
  • Banca Generali falls as much as 6.9% after Bloomberg reported Assicurazioni Generali has considered selling the unit to Mediobanca among options to help finance a potential deal, in a move questioned by Deutsche Bank.
  • Danske Bank slides as much as 8.4% as Barclays says the Danish bank is unlikely to meet its FY22 profit outlook.

Investors also waited to see how Brazil-linked assets would fare after the country’s presidential election headed to a run-off vote on Oct. 30. An early indication came from the Lyxor MSCI Brazil ETF in Paris, which jumped the most since July 7.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slid after capping their worst month since 2008, as cautious sentiment prevailed amid worries about global recession and higher interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, with consumer staples and utilities leading losses. A jump in oil prices also kept traders on edge due to its impact on inflation. Thin trading volumes heightened price moves as China, South Korea and Sydney were closed for a holiday.  The MSCI Asia gauge is trading at its most oversold level since March 2020 as concerns over China’s economic growth add to global headwinds. China remains closed this week for the Golden Week holiday, and any weakness in spending during the peak travel season may further disappoint traders already bruised from months of selloff. 

Japan was one of the only markets in the green on Monday, with stocks rebounding as the yen’s weakness continued to support the nation’s exporters (more below). Taiwan’s stock benchmark Taiex Index fell slightly even as tighter rules on short selling took effect. Gauges in Hong Kong declined, while Vietnam’s fell the most in the region as leveraged traders liquidated positions. “Some respite was seen in the US yields and the US dollar last week, but data due this week could bring further risk-off,” Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. READ: Relentless Dollar Rally Raises Bets on Interventions: MLIV Pulse US jobless claims, unemployment and factory orders are among the data that will be released later this week.

Japanese equities reversed earlier losses to advance as the yen’s weakness continues to support the nation’s exporters.   The Topix Index rose 0.6% to 1,847.58 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.1% to 26,215.79.   Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 3.5%. Out of 2,168 stocks in the index, 1,018 rose and 1,069 fell, while 81 were unchanged. The yen hit the 145-per-dollar psychological level during afternoon trading hour. Japan’s stocks were the biggest boost to the MSCI’s Asia equity benchmark.   “Automobiles are being bought on the back of the weak yen, and high-priced tech stocks are also in demand,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 6,456.90, as declines in technology and consumer stocks offset gains in energy and utilities. Sydney trading was impacted by a holiday in New South Wales. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1% to 10,959.45.

Indian equities resumed their slide on Monday as banking and information technology firms slumped, while worries over inflation and slowing growth continued to dampen global investor sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.1% to 56,788.81 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 1.2%. Both rose more than 1.5% on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India raised its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.90% and largely retained its growth and inflation estimates.  Despite the rally on Friday, the benchmarks posted their eighth drop in nine sessions mainly due to selling by foreign investors, who have offloaded $1.4 billion of local shares in the month through Sept. 29. For September, both gauges lost more than 3% each, the most since June. For the year, the Sensex is down 2.5% while the Nifty has lost 2.7%. All but two of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. declined on Monday, led by power and utilities companies.  “We believe that the market may remain volatile with possibility of near term correction given the sharp recent out-performance,” Antique Stock Broking analyst Pankaj Chhaochharia wrote in a note. He cited reduction in banking liquidity, a flattening of the yield curve and the deteriorating global growth outlook as factors that could drag Indian stocks. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers; JPY and SEK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and AUD outperform.

  • Sterling pared gains after earlier rallying as much as 1% to $1.1281 as Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng dropped a plan to abolish a 45% rate of income tax for the country’s highest earners. Still, options traders add weaker-sterling bets the more it rallies. UK bonds rose across all maturities, sending the 10-year yield below 4% for the first time since Sept. 23, and money markets eased BOE tightening wagers.
  • The euro steadied near $0.98 while bunds were little changed and Italian bonds fell.
  • The yen weakened back beyond 145 per dollar as traders test the government’s resolve to arrest declines in the currency. Bonds gained after the central bank boosted its planned debt purchases for the fourth quarter. An index of sentiment among Japan’s biggest manufacturers edged down to 8 in September from 9, worsening for a third-straight quarter, according to the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan report released Monday.
  • Commodity currencies were the best performers, led by Australian and New Zealand dollars amid rising oil prices. The Aussie-greenback’s one-week implied volatility jumped to the highest since April 2020 on Monday, with two key events in the coming days: an Australian policy review and US jobs data. Both RBNZ and RBA meet this week. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a fifth straight half percentage-point hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Oct. 4 to take the cash rate to 2.85%, before opting for smaller hikes going ahead

Treasuries rallied, perhaps in response to Mark Cabana’s warning that the Fed will soon have to do a new Twist (which pushing long duration bond yield lower), and paring much of late Friday’s steep selloff into month-end. Gains were led by the front-end of the curve, paced by bull-steepening in gilts after UK Chancellor Kwarteng drops plan to abolish 45% top tax rate. Treasuries bull steepened, with yields falling between 3-9bps as traders pared Fed tightening bets; Treasury yields richer by up to 14bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by more than 3bp; 10- year yields around 3.72%, richer by 10bp on the day and outperforming bunds by 4bp, gilts by 2bp. Gilts 10-year yield drops as much as 10bps to 3.99% before paring the move to 4.07% as money markets ease BOE tightening wagers. Bunds little changed at 2.1% while USTs 10-year yield drops 4bps to 3.78%.

In commodities, WTI rises 4.7% to around $83.20 on signals the OPEC+ group may opt for a production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day.  WTI futures jump on indications OPEC+ alliance is considering slashing production by

n-fitting with the last few sessions, Bitcoin is within narrow sub-500 ranges but is at the lower-end of these parameters and under modest pressure around USD 19.1k.

Looking at today’s US calendar we have US September ISM manufacturing index, total vehicle sales, August construction spending, Japan September vehicle sales; Friday brings the September jobs report.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,593.75
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 138.45
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 449.10
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 26,215.79
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,847.58
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 17,079.51
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
  • Sensex down 1.0% to 56,877.88
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,456.87
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,155.49
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.5% to 382.21
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.13%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $0.9818
  • Brent Futures up 4.0% to $88.55/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,664.59
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 111.97

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • UK Prime Minister Liz Truss dropped a plan to cut taxes for the highest earners just 10 days after announcing it, in a bid to fend off a mounting rebellion from Members of Parliament in her own Conservative Party
  • A corporate treasurer or finance minister looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 156 basis points higher on average than the coupons on existing securities, after that gap surged to a record in recent days. That all adds up to about $1.01 trillion in additional costs if all those securities were refinanced, according to calculations using a Bloomberg index tracking some $65 trillion of government and corporate debt across currencies
  • When pandemic inflation took off last year, it was seen as more likely to stick around in the US — where stimulus was much bigger and consumer demand stronger — than in Europe. But the energy crisis has upended that picture
  • The premium that holders of euros and yen need to pay to swap into dollars jumped as UK financial turmoil and Federal Reserve hawkishness gave a further tailwind to the greenback, with a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rising to another record last week
  • Turkish inflation accelerated last month to a level last seen in mid-1998, fueled by an experimental central-bank policy that has chased away foreign investors and eroded the lira’s value. Consumer prices rose 83.5% on an annual basis in September, according to data released on Monday by Turkey’s statistics agency, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Monthly inflation accelerated 3.1%, slightly less than expected in a separate poll
  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would strengthen the economy in a way that makes the most of the weak yen, including encouraging the building of chip and battery factories as well as pushing farm exports

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly lower as the region failed to shrug off the negative mood following last Friday’s losses on Wall St. and with risk sentiment in Asia also clouded by holiday closures ahead of this week’s key events.     ASX 200 was lacklustre with price action contained amid the quasi-holiday conditions in Australia. Nikkei 225 recovered from early weakness and reclaimed the 26,000 level despite the mixed Tankan data in which headline Large Manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for a 3rd consecutive quarter and printed its lowest level since March 2021, although Large All Industry Capex topped forecasts. Hang Seng was choppy in which the index briefly recouped initial losses as the property sector strengthened after the recent announcement by the PBoC to allow some cities to cut mortgage rates for first-time buyers, although the recovery was short-lived amid the absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows for a week-long closure.

Top Asian news

  • PBoC and other departments issued the overall plan for three pilot areas of inclusive financial reform, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ Summary of Opinions stated that Japan’s core consumer inflation is likely to accelerate towards year-end and narrow the pace of increase thereafter, while it added the Bank should maintain monetary easing and that it is desirable to maintain current forward guidance with a dovish bias as the impact of the pandemic is uncertain and inflation is likely to slow next fiscal year and onwards.
  • Morgan Stanley Says Likely Fed Pivot Won’t End Earnings Pain
  • Hong Kong’s Yuan-Stock-Trading Plan Gets Industry Support
  • Emerging-Market Eurobond Sales Drop to 11-Year Low in September

European equities have kicked the week off on the backfoot following the selling pressure seen on Wall Street on Friday whilst the APAC session saw holiday-thinned conditions with China away from market. Sectors in Europe are mostly lower with the exception of Energy and Utility names. To the downside, Banking names lag with Credit Suisse the worst performing stock in the Stoxx 600 amid ongoing speculation over the fragility of the Bank’s outlook. Stateside, US futures are more of a mixed bag with the tech-laden NQ incrementally lagging peers. Credit Suisse cuts their 2022 SPX target to 3,850 from 4,300; initiates 2023 target at 4,050 and Citi cuts their 2022 SPX target to 4,000 from 4,200; initiates 2023 target at 3,900, via Reuters.

Top European news

  • UK Gov’t confirms they will not go ahead with the abolition of the 45p rate of income tax. Follows multiple reports around this beforehand which sparked a bid in GBP; prior to this, there was two-way reporting around a u-turn and a delay.
  • UK PM Truss said that they would be in serious trouble on the economy if they hadn’t acted and that they also needed to act on other areas of taxation to make sure that the economy did not slow down any further. Truss also said that she wants to reassure people that they have a very clear plan, while she stands by the package they announced and thinks they made the right decision to borrow more this winter, according to Reuters.
  • UK government has been asked by the Chinese owner of British Steel for a rescue package of up to GBP 500mln to keep its vast steelworks in Lincolnshire open which has stoked fears of thousands of job losses and the prospect of the closure of some of the last blast furnaces in the UK, according to FT.
  • S&P affirmed the UK at AA; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable on Friday.
  • Credit Suisse CEO said the firm is at a critical moment and sees strength, as well as noted they have a strong capital base and liquidity in a recent attempt to calm nerves. Note, there were unsubstantiated rumours on social media that a major investment bank is on the brink with many pointing to Credit Suisse. The BoE is reportedly monitoring the situation at the Co. amid market turbulence. However, officials are satisfied that there have been no major developments at the Bank, according to the Telegraph.
  • Swiss Inflation Unexpectedly Slows to 3.3% on Energy Prices
  • Danske Bank Slides as Barclays Says Unlikely to Meet FY22 Target
  • ETFs Tracking Brazilian Shares Gain as Country Heads to Runoff
  • Accelleron Trades Near 18-Franc Opening Price After ABB Spinoff

FX

  • Activity currencies are on the front foot at the start of the new month and quarter, but more so on idiosyncratic factors as opposed to broader risk appetite.
  • Sterling saw a boost in the early hours as reports circulated that the UK would ditch plans to abolish the GBP 0.45 top tax rate (later confirmed by the Chancellor).
  • DXY has been edging higher in recent trade despite a lack of newsflow, but ahead of several central bank speakers and the US jobs report on Friday.
  • CHF, JPY, and EUR sit as the current laggards whilst the EZ Manufacturing Final PMIs suggested the “worst looks set to come” for the sector.
  • The offshore Yuan has been trading towards the top end of its intraday range as the PBoC omitted from setting a CNY fixing overnight amid the Golden Week holiday which is poised to end on the 7th of October.
  • Brazil’s electoral authority confirmed that the presidential election will go to a second-round runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula after none of the candidates achieved the 50% threshold although former President Lula received 48.2% and incumbent Bolsonaro received 43.4%, according to BBC.
  • RBI is likely selling USD via state banks around 81.85-81.90 levels, according to traders cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks lifted markedly alongside the commencement of Gilt trade following reports and the subsequent confirmation that the UK Gov’t is not moving forward with its plan to abolish the 45p tax threshold.
  • Lifting Gilts above 98.00 briefly and sending the yield below 4.00%; however, this proved short-lived with significant funding concerns still to be addressed.
  • Broader benchmarks lifted alongside this but have since reverted back to unchanged/negative territory ahead of numerous Central Bank speakers; USTs & Bunds essentially unchanged.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures gapped higher at the open amid reports over the weekend that OPEC+ could opt for target cuts deeper than 1mln BPD, whilst Saudi may also decide on an additional voluntary cut.
  • Spot gold has been edging lower in tandem with the Dollar picking up, but remains north of USD 1,650/oz.
  • LME metals are relatively mixed with 3M copper back under USD 7,500/t amid the downbeat risk tone and the absence of China due to the Golden Week holiday.
  • OPEC+ sources on Sunday said the group may opt for cuts over 1mln BPD. One source suggested cuts could also include voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, OPEC+ delegates indicated cuts of 1.5mln BPD or more under consideration, according to Energy Intel’s Bakr.
  • UK regulator will fast-track North Sea gas fields to boost domestic production, according to FT.
  • Italy’s Eni said gas supply to Italy from a Russian gas supplier has not been confirmed for Monday because Gazprom is unable to transfer gas through Austria with consequent zero flows and it expects the situation to remain the same until Tuesday, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.8, prior 51.8
  • 10:00: Aug. Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.4%
  • 10:00: Sept. ISM Manufacturing, est. 52.0, prior 52.8
    • ISM Employment, est. 53.0, prior 54.2
    • ISM Prices Paid, est. 52.0, prior 52.5
    • ISM New Orders, est. 50.5, prior 51.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the first business day of October. It was one of the weaker (if not the weakest in terms of breadth) Q3s and Septembers in most of our careers. Indeed, Henry has just published our monthly performance review with a comprehensive look back at the month and quarter. You can see it here. As a spoiler, in September just 2 non-currency assets out of the 38 we normally track managed to post a positive return on the month. In Q3 it was just one which is the worst since we started tracking all these assets in our monthly review back in 2007. Previously, the worse quarters saw 5 decliners (in Q2 this year and Q2 2020). So this remains an “everything down” market which given that (pretty much) everything went up for 40 years together to extreme valuations shouldn’t be a huge surprise now that the drivers have changed. This is something we discuss in the “How we got here and where we’re going” long-term study from last week. Please see it here. A webinar will follow soon. Watch this space for details.

The highlight in the first week of the final quarter of 2022 will be payrolls on Friday. We’ll also see the US ISMs and various PMIs from around the world and it’ll be fascinating to see how the UK Conservative Party conference goes this week given the political and market turmoil in UK assets.

Exploring the main highlights in more detail let’s start with payrolls. Our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have added +275k, versus +315k in August (consensus +275k), with the unemployment rate (3.6%) ticking down a tenth. Staying with employment the JOLTS data will be out tomorrow. We prefer it to payrolls as a guide to how tight labour markets are but it’s unfortunately a month lagging. ADP on Wednesday will also be interesting.

Today will see the manufacturing US PMI with services on Wednesday. Our US economics team sees both the manufacturing (52.2 vs 52.8 in August) and the services (56.5 vs 56.9 in August) gauges easing from previous readings. The employment indicators of these indices will also be closely watched especially given its payrolls week. This morning there’ll be plenty of European manufacturing PMIs to watch out for. Talking of Europe, our economists lifted their baseline call on the ECB terminal rate by 50bp to 3% on Friday. Earlier last week, they had identified the fiscal stance as a key upside risk to their ECB call and the larger-than-expected German fiscal package was the materialisation of this risk. See here for more. There are lots of moving parts at the moment and our German economists think this package will upgrade their 2023 growth forecast (from -3.5% to around -2%) and reduce their inflation forecast. See here for more.

In the UK, the Conservative Party conference has started and Chancellor Kwarteng will speak today at 4pm with Prime Minister Truss tomorrow morning. The Chancellor is also slated to be on TV this morning. This is going to be a very important week for the internal party dynamics and for the country’s traded assets. On Friday night, S&P placed the AA rating on negative outlook which shouldn’t mean much in the short term but adds another straw on that camel’s back. Late last night, reports came in from the Telegraph suggesting that British Prime Minister Truss could delay the vote on cutting the 45% additional rate of tax for higher earners until details from the Chancellor’s medium-term plan are released on November 23rd. This seems to be due to the fact that many government MPs are likely to vote against the measure. Sterling is -0.65% in Asia as I type.

Elsewhere, we have an OPEC+ decision on output when the cartel meet on Wednesday to address oil market weakness as Brent crude hovers around $90 per barrel, a level seen before the Ukraine crisis and down from the above-$120 peak this year. Given previous comments from OPEC+ countries’ officials regarding potential supply cuts if prices are perceived as too low, whether the group decides to carry out a significant adjustment will be important for inflation and growth dynamics worldwide.

Lastly, over in Asia, the highlight is likely to be September’s Tokyo CPI numbers tomorrow. The rest of the day-by-day calendar of events is at the end as usual which includes some of the central bank speak which is again plentiful.

On the first trading day of the quarter, equity markets in Asia are mixed in thin trading as a holiday-heavy week gets underway. As I type, the Nikkei (+0.67%) is recovering after falling more than -1% in early trade while the Hang Seng (-1.19%) is down. Elsewhere, markets in China are closed for the Golden Week holiday with South Korea’s market also remaining closed for a holiday.

US stock futures are trading lower in overnight trading with the NASDAQ 100 futures down -0.44% while futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.07%) are marginally lower. European futures are lower (Stoxx -1.6%), catching down to a weak US close and to the building concerns over the recent weakness in Credit Suisse.

Early morning data showed that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan corporate survey showed sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers worsened in the three months to September to a level of +8 (v/s +11 expected) from +9 in June as high material costs dampened the outlook of the export-reliant economy. At the same time, the non-manufacturers’ index rose to +14 in September (v/s +13 expected), up slightly from plus 13 in June to mark the second straight quarter of improvement.

Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (-4.63 bps) have moved lower to 3.78% overnight.

Now recapping last week. The week started with extraordinary sovereign bond volatility, with 30yr gilts registering their largest one-day yield moves on back-to-back days. The record was not retained for long, however, as the BoE’s announcement that they would delay the start of QT and engage in asset purchases to ensure market functioning and stave off financial crises led to a 100bp decline in 30yr gilts. All told, 30yr gilts ended the week -21.9bps lower (-14bps Friday). Yields increased at shorter-dated tenors, however, as the BoE’s operations only took place at the far end of the curve, and it became clear the BoE would need to hike rates all the more to counteract the inflationary impact of the fiscal expansion (let alone any financial conditions easing that the purchases create). 2yr gilts were +27.1bps higher (-16.4bps Friday) and 10yr gilts climbed +26.5bps (-5.0bps Friday). The market ended the week pricing in a super-sized +141bps of tightening at the November MPC meeting. Meanwhile, avoiding financial collapse temporarily boosted the pound, which rallied +2.70% versus the US dollar over the week, including +0.33% on Friday.

Geopolitically, leaks sprouted up in the Nord Stream pipeline, which western officials widely identified as sabotage. While there was an initial spike in European natural gas prices following initial reports of leaks, European natural gas prices ended the week just +1.78% higher (+0.60% Friday). Further, Russia staged a referendum in four occupied Ukrainian territories, using the “results” as support for annexing the territories. President Putin spoke to both chambers of Parliament on Friday making the annexation plans official, and upping the rhetoric, saying Russia would use all available means to defend the territories, raising the spectre of nuclear conflict.

Meanwhile on the data front, Eurozone, German, and US inflation all surprised to the upside, prompting central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic to double down on restrictive policy guidance. Notably, Cleveland Fed President Mester went so far to say even a recession would not stop the Fed from raising rates if that’s what it took. Hard to imagine a soft landing in that scenario.

The combined effect was a decline in bonds and stocks. 10yr bund yields climbed +8.4bps (-7.3bps Friday), while Treasuries were +13.2bps higher (+3.1bps Friday). Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 (-0.65% on the week, +1.30% Friday), DAX (-1.38%, +1.16% Friday), and CAC (-0.36%, +1.51% Friday) all finished the week lower but enjoyed a boost from falling bond yields on Friday and closed before a late US fall. Indeed, US equities enjoyed no such weekend turnaround with the S&P 500 (-2.89%, -1.48% Friday) having its worst month since March 2020 after falling -9.34% in September. The NASDAQ fell -2.69% (-1.51% Friday) while the DOW was -2.92% lower (-1.71% Friday). Each of the aforementioned US indices ended the week at YTD lows.

What will this week bring??

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Pound and Gilts buoyed by a UK U-turn; ISM & Central Bank speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 06:33 AM

  • European equities have kicked the week off on the backfoot following the selling pressure seen on Wall Street on Friday whilst the APAC session saw holiday-thinned conditions
  • US futures are more of a mixed bag with the tech-laden NQ incrementally lagging peers.
  • Cable lifted to a 1.1279 best sending DXY below 112.00; however, this action has since eased with peers heavily mixed vs. USD
  • Core benchmarks lifted markedly alongside the commencement of Gilt trade following the gov’t u-turn, upside which has since eased
  • Crude benchmarks bid on weekend/early-morning reporting around the potential OPEC+ cut magnitude
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

As of 11:00BST/06:00ET

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Lyman had been cleared of Russian troops and that the success of Ukraine’s soldiers is not limited to Lyman with the Arkhanhelske and Myrolyubivka settlements liberated in the Kherson region, while he also stated that the abduction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s Director-General is another instance of a clear act of Russian terror, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said its troops have left the east Ukraine stronghold of Lyman, according to RIA. It was also reported that Chechnya leader Kadyrov said that Russia should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after Russian troops were forced out of the eastern Ukraine town of Lyman, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit seven artillery and missile depots in the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and the Donetsk People’s Republic, according to Reuters.
  • Russian-installed official says Ukrainian forecast have made some breakthroughs in the Kherson region and have taken control of some settlements, via Reuters.
  • Germany, Denmark and Norway will buy 16 Zuzana-2 Howitzers for Ukraine for EUR 92mln with delivery to start next year, according to Reuters citing the German Defence Ministry.
  • IAEA chief Grossi is expected to travel to Kyiv and Moscow in the week ahead for talks regarding creating a protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Reuters.
  • NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said any deliberate attack on NATO critical infrastructure will be met with a firm and united response, while he added that any use of nuclear weapons will have severe consequences for Russia and said that Russian President Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and reckless, according to Reuters.
  • NATO sent an intelligence note to member countries that suggested Russia has moved the submarine K-329 Belgorod into Arctic waters for the first potential test of the Poseidon nuclear missile, according to Repubblica.
  • EU Ambassadors to meet at 08:00BST today, to discuss latest Russian sanctions package which includes a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports, via Politico; however, diplomats note that some nations are still opposing this. Diplomats believe it will take one or two more meetings to resolve issues, looking to sign it off before Friday’s leader’s meeting.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • US Defense Secretary Austin said the US does not see an imminent invasion of Taiwan by China and said that China is trying to establish a new normal with actions in and around Taiwan, according to a CNN interview. Furthermore, Austin said the US is working with partners to ensure a free Indo-Pacific region is maintained and will work to ensure that US-China military communications open up.
  • Taiwan Defence Ministry said four Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line on Sunday, according to Reuters.

OTHER

  • North Korea conducted another ballistic missile launch on Saturday involving two suspected ballistic missiles which it fired towards its east coast and landed outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to Reuters.
  • South Korea condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launch and President Yoon said North Korea’s nuclear program is a direct challenge to the world nuclear non-proliferation regime. Yoon added that North Korea will face an overwhelming response from the US and South Korea if it tries to use nuclear weapons and that South Korea will strengthen joint military drills with the US, while South Korea will also dramatically upgrade reconnaissance and strike capability against North Korea, according to Reuters.
  • Israeli PM Lapid said they are studying a draft US-brokered deal demarcating the maritime border with Lebanon and that the draft offer would fully preserve Israel’s security and economic interests, while they are open to Lebanon developing gas in the disputed field if Israel gets royalties from it, according to Reuters.
  • A regional country mediated between Iran and the US for a prisoner swap and billions of dollars of Iran’s frozen assets will be released soon, according to Iran’s Nournews.
  • Venezuela released 7 jailed Americans in exchange for the US freeing 2 relatives of Venezuelan President Maduro, while a senior US administration official said the US policy towards Venezuela has not changed and they continue to believe that a Venezuelan-led dialogue to the restoration of free and fair elections in the country is still the top priority, according to Reuters.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry says “There is still a chance to revive the nuclear agreement if Washington shows the necessary will”, according to Al Jazeera.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European equities have kicked the week off on the backfoot following the selling pressure seen on Wall Street on Friday whilst the APAC session saw holiday-thinned conditions with China away from market.
  • Sectors in Europe are mostly lower with the exception of Energy and Utility names. To the downside, Banking names lag with Credit Suisse the worst performing stock in the Stoxx 600 amid ongoing speculation over the fragility of the Bank’s outlook.
  • Stateside, US futures are more of a mixed bag with the tech-laden NQ incrementally lagging peers.
  • Credit Suisse cuts their 2022 SPX target to 3,850 from 4,300; initiates 2023 target at 4,050 and Citi cuts their 2022 SPX target to 4,000 from 4,200; initiates 2023 target at 3,900, via Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Activity currencies are on the front foot at the start of the new month and quarter, but more so on idiosyncratic factors as opposed to broader risk appetite.
  • Sterling saw a boost in the early hours as reports circulated that the UK would ditch plans to abolish the GBP 0.45 top tax rate (later confirmed by the Chancellor).
  • DXY has been edging higher in recent trade despite a lack of newsflow, but ahead of several central bank speakers and the US jobs report on Friday.
  • CHFJPY, and EUR sit as the current laggards whilst the EZ Manufacturing Final PMIs suggested the “worst looks set to come” for the sector.
  • The offshore Yuan has been trading towards the top end of its intraday range as the PBoC omitted from setting a CNY fixing overnight amid the Golden Week holiday which is poised to end on the 7th of October.
  • Brazil’s electoral authority confirmed that the presidential election will go to a second-round runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula after none of the candidates achieved the 50% threshold although former President Lula received 48.2% and incumbent Bolsonaro received 43.4%, according to BBC.
  • RBI is likely selling USD via state banks around 81.85-81.90 levels, according to traders cited by Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks lifted markedly alongside the commencement of Gilt trade following reports and the subsequent confirmation that the UK Gov’t is not moving forward with its plan to abolish the 45p tax threshold.
  • Lifting Gilts above 98.00 briefly and sending the yield below 4.00%; however, this proved short-lived with significant funding concerns still to be addressed.
  • Broader benchmarks lifted alongside this but have since reverted back to unchanged/negative territory ahead of numerous Central Bank speakers; USTs & Bunds essentially unchanged.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent futures gapped higher at the open amid reports over the weekend that OPEC+ could opt for target cuts deeper than 1mln BPD, whilst Saudi may also decide on an additional voluntary cut.
  • Spot gold has been edging lower in tandem with the Dollar picking up, but remains north of USD 1,650/oz.
  • LME metals are relatively mixed with 3M copper back under USD 7,500/t amid the downbeat risk tone and the absence of China due to the Golden Week holiday.
  • OPEC+ sources on Sunday said the group may opt for cuts over 1mln BPD. One source suggested cuts could also include voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, OPEC+ delegates indicated cuts of 1.5mln BPD or more under consideration, according to Energy Intel’s Bakr.
  • UK regulator will fast-track North Sea gas fields to boost domestic production, according to FT.
  • Italy’s Eni said gas supply to Italy from a Russian gas supplier has not been confirmed for Monday because Gazprom is unable to transfer gas through Austria with consequent zero flows and it expects the situation to remain the same until Tuesday, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK Gov’t confirms they will not go ahead with the abolition of the 45p rate of income tax. Follows multiple reports around this beforehand which sparked a bid in GBP; prior to this, there was two-way reporting around a u-turn and a delay.
  • UK PM Truss said that they would be in serious trouble on the economy if they hadn’t acted and that they also needed to act on other areas of taxation to make sure that the economy did not slow down any further. Truss also said that she wants to reassure people that they have a very clear plan, while she stands by the package they announced and thinks they made the right decision to borrow more this winter, according to Reuters.
  • UK government has been asked by the Chinese owner of British Steel for a rescue package of up to GBP 500mln to keep its vast steelworks in Lincolnshire open which has stoked fears of thousands of job losses and the prospect of the closure of some of the last blast furnaces in the UK, according to FT.
  • S&P affirmed the UK at AA; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable on Friday.
  • Credit Suisse CEO said the firm is at a critical moment and sees strength, as well as noted they have a strong capital base and liquidity in a recent attempt to calm nerves. Note, there were unsubstantiated rumours on social media that a major investment bank is on the brink with many pointing to Credit Suisse. The BoE is reportedly monitoring the situation at the Co. amid market turbulence. However, officials are satisfied that there have been no major developments at the Bank, according to the Telegraph.

DATA RECAP

  • EU S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI (Sep) 48.4 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)
  • German S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 47.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3)
  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI FNL (Sep) 48.4 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Tesla (TSLA) announced it delivered 343.8k vehicles in Q3 which was lower than the 359.0k expected, while the Co. cited an increasingly challenging environment for transport and logistics, according to FT.

CRYPTO

  • In-fitting with the last few sessions, Bitcoin is within narrow sub-500 ranges but is at the lower-end of these parameters and under modest pressure around USD 19.1k.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region failed to shrug off the negative mood following last Friday’s losses on Wall St. and with risk sentiment in Asia also clouded by holiday closures ahead of this week’s key events.
  • ASX 200 was lacklustre with price action contained amid the quasi-holiday conditions in Australia.
  • Nikkei 225 recovered from early weakness and reclaimed the 26,000 level despite the mixed Tankan data in which headline Large Manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for a 3rd consecutive quarter and printed its lowest level since March 2021, although Large All Industry Capex topped forecasts.
  • Hang Seng was choppy in which the index briefly recouped initial losses as the property sector strengthened after the recent announcement by the PBoC to allow some cities to cut mortgage rates for first-time buyers, although the recovery was short-lived amid the absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows for a week-long closure.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC and other departments issued the overall plan for three pilot areas of inclusive financial reform, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ Summary of Opinions stated that Japan’s core consumer inflation is likely to accelerate towards year-end and narrow the pace of increase thereafter, while it added the Bank should maintain monetary easing and that it is desirable to maintain current forward guidance with a dovish bias as the impact of the pandemic is uncertain and inflation is likely to slow next fiscal year and onwards.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

  • Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q3) 8 vs. Exp. 11 (Prev. 9); Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 9 vs. Exp. 11 (Prev. 10)
  • Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) 14 vs. Exp. 13 (Prev. 13); Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 11 vs. Exp. 15 (Prev. 13)
  • Japanese Tankan All Big Capex Estimate (Q3) 21.5% vs. Exp. 18.8% (Prev. 18.6%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 143.32 PTS OR 0.83%    /The Nikkei closed UP 278.58PTS OR 1.07%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.33%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1471//    /Oil UP TO 83.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.48    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAK AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAK

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK/TURKEY

Saturday:

Erdogan mocks the Pound blow up despite the lira continuing to collapse

(zerohedge)

Turkey’s Erdogan Mocks Britain’s Currency “Blow Up” As Lira Collapse Continues

SATURDAY, OCT 01, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Turkish President Erdogan’s battle against the central bankers’ holy scripture continued today as in the face of soaring inflation (over 80%), he told central bank decision-makers to continue lowering rates at its next meeting in October.

“My biggest battle is against interest. My biggest enemy is interest. We lowered the interest rate to 12%. Is that enough? It is not enough. This needs to come down further,” Erdogan said during an event, according to a Reuters translation.

“We have discussed, are discussing this with our central bank. I suggested the need for this to come down further in upcoming monetary policy committee meetings,” he added.

He told CNN Turk on Wednesday night, adding that he expects the country’s key rate, currently 12%, to hit single digits by the end of this year.

How’s that plan working out for you?

But, in what appeared to be an effort to deflect from his own countries collapse under his ‘odd’ economic perspective, Erdogan also took a swing at the U.K., saying that the British pound has “blown up.”

As The Fed raises its interest rate and the dollar grows stronger, Turkey’s many dollar-denominated debts, and the energy it imports in dollars, will only become more painful to pay for.

“With external financing conditions tightening, the risks remain firmly skewed to sharp and disorderly falls in the lira,” Liam Peach, a senior emerging markets economist, wrote in a note after Turkey’s last rate cut on Sept. 22.

“The macro backdrop in Turkey remains poor. Real interest rates are deeply negative, the current account deficit is widening and short-term external debts remain large,” he wrote.

“It may not take a significant tightening of global financial conditions for investor risk sentiment towards Turkey to sour and add more downward pressure on the lira.”

“Oh the irony, Erdogan giving Truss advice on the economy,” Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a not to CNBC.

“Turkey has 80% inflation and I guess the worst performing currency over the past decade. Lol. How low the U.K. has sunk.”

While on a year-to-date basis the two currencies relative weakness against the dollar is not miles apart (TRY -28%, GBP -18%)…

Since 1980, the Turkish Lira has lost 99.99% of its value against the greenback versus Sterling’s decline of around 50% in those 40 years…

Source: Bloomberg

Pot meet kettle?

end

UK

Truss does a U turn and scraps the tax cuts for top earners to store credibility.  The pound rises by 1%

(zerohedge)

UK’s Truss Pushed Into “Humiliating” U-Turn, Scraps Tax Cuts For Top Earners To “Restore Credibility”

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 07:19 AM

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was pushed into what the FT called a “humiliating” U-turn forced by growing discontent from members of her own Conservative Party, when she ditched her plan to slash taxes for the highest earners just over a week after announcing her shocking “mini-budget”  which set off an avalanche of selling in the sterling and gilts and nearly wiped out the UK pension system.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng tweeted, “I’m announcing we are not proceeding with the abolition of the 45p tax rateWe get it, and we have listened.”  He added that “It is clear that the abolition of the 45p tax rate has become a distraction from our overriding mission to tackle the challenges facing our country.”

The pound moved higher on Monday, rising as much as 1%, before giving up some of those gains. Last week, the pound plunged to a record low against the dollar after Kwarteng announced the debt-funded £45bn tax cuts on Sept. 23. 

UK government debt also rose in price following Truss’ backtracking on tax cut plans. The 10-year gilt yield is around 4.02% after hitting a high of 4.6% last week, which forced the Bank of England to purchase £65 billion of long-term debt to rescue the currency from a death spiral. 

The announcement of the unfunded tax cut for the wealthy at the same time when millions of lower-income Brits have been thrown into energy poverty and inflation rates run at multi-decade highs was bad optics. We noted Sunday that Truss faced mounting pressure to abandon the tax cuts as she threw Kwarteng under the bus, blaming him for the planned tax cut, saying “it was a decision the Chancellor made” rather than one debated by the entire Cabinet. It was also widely unpopular among many MPs. 

The Conservative Party has seen a plunge in polls; inversely, Labour Party received a boost since the proposed tax cuts were announced. 

According to Financial Times, Truss and Kwarteng held emergency talks in Birmingham over the weekend, citing government insiders. Truss faced a rebellion from Tory MPs who would’ve struck down the proposed tax cut during a vote. 

“The politics of this were just awful and I am amazed the idea has lasted as long as it did,” one senior minister said. 

One Tory MP representing a working-class seat described the proposed tax cuts for the rich as “deranged” while benefits and public services were planned to be cut. 

Kwarteng told BBC Breakfast on Monday:

“What was clear talking to lots of people up and down the country, talking to MPs, talking to voters, talking to constituents, was that the 45p rate was becoming a distraction on what was a very strong plan.”

The reversal might not be enough to restore credibility with markets. Here’s what big bank analysts said about the U-turn (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

 UBS Global Wealth Management 

“The UK remains a source of market volatility,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“The Prime Minister has suggested the more controversial policies were the Chancellor’s idea. So far, free markets have given a negative verdict whenever the Prime Minister or Chancellor has spoken.”

“The UK situation raises two investor considerations. Will the policy proposals actually pass Parliament? Normally a finance bill is considered a vote of confidence, but specific parts of the policy proposals are widely and strongly opposed. If the policies do pass Parliament, how long will they last? An election is due in 2024; if markets price a change of government (and policy), that may put a floor under asset prices.”

Nomura Holdings 

“The top rate of tax U-turn is only a symbolic gesture as it’s roughly just £2 billion,” said Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura Holdings.

“It’s a sign that they will listen to markets and politics perhaps but it doesn’t reverse the big pledges.”

Mizuho Bank 

“In terms of the amount of money, it’s still fairly small and won’t change the Office for Budget Responsbility’s assessment, which I am fairly sure will be damning,” said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho in London.

“What changes most is the optics of it — supporting bankers over nurses especially after Covid is a bad look and enough of (Kwarteng’s) Tory colleagues will have been prepared to vote against it.” 

“Remember the BOE is still supporting the gilt market so yields won’t be reflecting the full consequences of recent events, including the retention of the 45% tax band. There is still nervousness over what happens in two weeks time when we revert to the status quo. Today’s move on tax rates doesn’t change a huge amount and in short term bias remains for weaker sterling.”

Hargreaves Lansdown

 “The Prime Minister was hoping to carve out a reputation as the new Iron Lady, instead she will be seen as highly malleable,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

 “She has been manipulated into this U-turn after senior Conservatives yesterday were coming out in open revolt at the Treasury’s decision to scrap the 45p tax band for the wealthy while refusing to rule out cuts to welfare for the poorest.” 

“Admitting to a communication mistake rather than a serious policy mishap didn’t cut it. Now this embarrassing climb down, taking unfunded tax cuts off the table, which Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has called a distraction, will help reassure the markets a little that the more reckless nature of this new administration can be reined in by the Conservative party.”

MFS Investment Management

“The policy reversal clearly indicates there is some scope for shifts in the details but the overall fiscal approach seemingly remains in place,” said Peter Goves, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management.

“The market may infer that the package might not be as rigid as first thought but equally it also highlights that support for the measures wasn’t convincingly broad enough for it to be voted through Parliament.”

“The key point is the unfunded nature of the fiscal impulse. This is what concerns the market because it impacts sovereign debt metrics, has implications for inflation and monetary policy amid a growth slow down. The BOE’s return has brought some welcome market stability but gilt yields remain relatively high and are still searching for further clarity on the details of the package.”

ING Group 

“Cable has today returned to levels seen just before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered the infamous ‘fiscal event’ and it would now be hard to argue that cable should be trading much higher than that,” said Chris Turner, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING.

“But this does alleviate the risk of cable trading to parity in that it shows Downing Street will show greater respect to financial markets when considering policy options.”

Rabobank

“The current government, and Truss and her chancellor are viewed as being naive at best in terms of reading markets, and it’s going to very difficult if not potentially impossible to win back that credibility,” said Jane Foley, currency strategist at Rabobank.

“There are potential signs that her tenure as party leader could be extremely short because it’s almost a no-win situation for her.”

END

UK

Revolution in the air as Brits burn power bills as the energy crisis continues unabated

(zerohedge)

Revolution In Air As Brits Burn Power Bills Amid Historic Energy Crisis

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Energy prices for millions of households across the UK rose on Saturday. Soaring power bills amid the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation led to a continuation of growing discontent ahead of the dark winter. 

Thousands of Brits marched in London and other metro areas this weekend in protest of being thrown into energy poverty while inflation is at forty-year highs.

There were countless videos on social media showing Brits holding signs about their dire financial situation. “Can’t afford to live,” “Freeze profit, not people,” and “Eat the Tories,” read some of the signs people held. 

The protest was organized by Don’t Pay UK, an anonymous group spearheading the effort to have more than one million Brits boycott paying their power bills this winter (the movement is nearly 200,000 strong). 

“Millions of us simply won’t be able to keep our heads above water and many will freeze when the weather turns cold,” a spokesman for the campaign said.

The protest coincided with the new energy price cap that took effect on Saturday, increasing the power bill average per household from £1,971 to £2,500 annually. Without this government intervention, annual bills would’ve continued skyrocketing. 

New Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the government’s support for households and businesses shields them from energy hyperinflation. Meanwhile, Truss’ support is already in turmoil. Labour leads the Conservatives by a stunning 33%, according to a recent YouGov poll, up from 14% when she assumed power just three weeks ago. 

However, the price cap for a typical household has doubled since last year — the massive increase has sparked discontent among Brits who are crushed by a cost-of-living crisis. 

The UK Misery Index is at its worst level in three decades. We noted that Half Of UK Households Will Be In Fuel-Poverty By January last week. 

On a socioeconomic basis, we’ve outlined “Widespread Civil Unrest” Looming In UK Over Cost-Of-Living CrisisThe head of the International Monetary Fund recently said a harsh winter could exacerbate the energy crisis that may spark social unrest. And the head of the International Energy Agency said there’s a risk Europe could unravel.  

Europe is on the list of impending social unrest areas in the “next six months” by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm.

end 

UK

Shocking letter reveals UK blackout fear as natural gas supplies could be cut in an emergency)

((zerohedge)

Shocking Letter Reveals UK Blackout Fear As NatGas Supplies Could Be Cut In “Emergency”

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 09:52 AM

A letter from Ofgem, the UK’s power regulator, warned about the “significant risk” of a natural gas shortage this winter because of disruptions to energy markets following the war in Ukraine and undersupply of Europe. 

Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas tweeted a photograph of the letter focusing on technical changes in the UK electricity market. Blas highlighted the critical parts of the letter in the “background” section that detailed a dark and cold winter for the UK could be just ahead. 

Here’s what Blas outlined:

“Due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there is a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter 2022/23 in Great Britain (‘GB’). As a result, there is a possibility that GB could enter into a Gas Supply Emergency.”

… “In the event that GB reaches Stage 2 in this procedure, Firm Load Shedding of gas would be applied to the largest gas users connected to the gas system. This will likely be large gas-fired power stations which produce electricity to the National Electricity Transmission System (‘NETS’).”

Blas warned: “Winter is coming awfully quickly, and we are betting the house on a warmer-than-average season.” 

Blas is correct. The average UK temperatures are around 12 Celsius (53.6 Fahrenheit). The peak in mean temps occurred in early August. 

Heating degree days, a measurement designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building structure, is already rising across the country, indicating the heating season has begun. 

Blas concluded: “Maybe, maybe, maybe… it’s time for the UK government to seriously get a grip with the energy crisis, and start a public campaign for energy savings, before it is too late.”

END

trouble ahead!  Credit Suisse shares hit record lows and Credit Default swaps (bets on its survival) spike to record highs.

(zerohedge)

SWITZERLAND//CREDIT SUISSE

Credit Suisse Shares Hit Record Low, CDS Spike To Record High After CEO Letter Backfires

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 08:17 AM

Update (0800ET): Traders have woken up this morning to more systemic fragility as Credit Suisse debt and equity is dumped in an unceremonious rejection of the CEO’s letter of reassurance over the weekend.

Who could have seen that coming?

CS stock is down over 5% in pre-market trading (ADRs) to a new record low

And CS credit risk has spiked to record highs this morning, topping 280bps at one point – basically disallowing the company from any investment banking business. This is higher than the bank’s credit risk traded at the peak of the Lehman crisis…

While the credit default swap levels are still far from distressed and are part of a broad market selloff, they signify deteriorating perceptions of creditworthiness for the scandal-hit bank in the current environment. There is now a roughly 23% chance the bank defaults on its bonds within 5 years.

The relationship between debt risk, equity price (lower price, less asset value to cover debt, higher credit risk), and equity risk (higher equity risk, higher asset risk, higher credit risk) is a complex one – but one that nevertheless is tradable, by so-called capital structure arbitrageurs. The chart above shows a simple ‘implied spread’ derived from the the company’s equity price and volatility. As can be seen, it is well below the current spread trading in professional markets.

This means one or more of these three things: the credit risk premium in the market is too high, the equity price is too high, and/or the equity volatility is too low.

Take your pick.

We note that during a carefully worded and defensive segment this morning on CNBC, they cited sources as saying Credit Suisse liquidity position is strong.

Additionally, several market participants (and freshly minted experts in CDS that seemed to suddenly appear on Reddit) sough to dismiss the moves. However, we do note that infamous credit arbitrageur Boaz Weinstein did speak up too, suggesting there was scaremongery afoot…

Finally, it is worth mentioning, as Alasdair Macleod recently pointed out, Credit Suisse is not the only major bank whose price-to-book is flashing warning signals.

This list shows all G-SIBs with Price-to-Books of under 40%. A failure of one of them is likely to call the survival of the others into question.

Trade accordingly.

*  *  *

For the second straight week, Credit Suisse’s new CEO Ulrich Koerner sought to reassure investors (and in fact all global market participants) that the troubled Swiss bank is ‘safe’.

While conceding that there is a lot of uncertainty and speculation both within and outside the bank, the CEO said the bank is at a “critical moment” as it prepares for its latest overhaul.

Koerner told employees not to confuse the “day-to-day” stock price performance with the Swiss firm’s “strong capital base and liquidity position.”

The market – simply put – does not believe him as the credit markets are pricing in the chance of default at its highest level since the peak of the Great Financial Crisis

And it appears counterparties to the bank’s derivatives transactions are aggressively hedging their exposure to the Swiss bank’s possible failure to perform…

The bank – which has been hit with a corporate spying scandal, a record trading loss, shuttered investment funds and a deluge of lawsuits in recent years – is due to announce a major new strategic plan on Oct. 27 and as we recently noted has said that reports of a ‘bad bank’ split off to hold its high-risk (read low-quality) assets are “categorically false.”

In August, Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that paring back the investment bank while growing other business lines and strengthening its capital rations would leave a US$4bn hole in the group’s capital position.

“Running down other parts of the investment bank and selling smaller businesses across divisions could help over time, but this would likely come too late to avoid an equity raise,” wrote Deutsche analysts Benjamin Goy and Sharath Kumar Ramanathan.

As Bloomberg reports, Credit Suisse’s market capitalization dropped to around 10 billion Swiss francs ($10.1 billion), meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders.

The market value was above 30 billion francs as recently as March 2021.

Credit Suisse executives have noted that the firm’s 13.5% CET1 capital ratio at June 30 was in the middle of the planned range of 13% to 14% for 2022.

The firm’s 2021 annual report said that its international regulatory minimum ratio was 8%, while Swiss authorities required a higher level of about 10%.

So CS has a “strong capital base and liquidity position”? Like reports that “Bear Stearns was not in trouble”, “Lehman is well capitalized”, and “subprime was contained”?

Finally, as Larry MacDonald writes at The Bear Traps Report: Credit Suisse is NO Lehman, but it´s on par with Bear Stearns.

“We are well capitalized” comments from Alan Schwartz and Ulrich Koerner are 14 years apart but ominously appear nearly identical.

Must not forget, stocks puked lower into the Bear Stearns rescue and rallied 23% (NDX) on the follow. It is time to connect the dots – we now have Paul Krugman, Jeremy Siegel very publicly chastising Powell, and Harvard´s Greg Mankiw writing an opinion piece screaming, the Fed has indeed overcooked the Porter House. Oh, by the way, our favorite Fed pawn, Timiraos was sharing Mankiw´s sentiment early Sunday morning. Hmmm.

It all comes down to risk-weighted assets.

When Lehman and Bear failed, their core capital – U.S. Treasuries – were NOT dropping like a stone. In the last twenty years, our global banking system has NEVER faced a one-two punch of interest rate risk and credit risk combined.

Can you imagine being a board member of Credit Suisse? You take the Archegos and Greensill financial hits – then come war, an energy crisis-driven recession, and your foundation bedrock capital on the balance sheet, good old government bonds are dropping 10-30 points in a month. The CET1 ratio compares a bank’s capital against its assets. Additional Tier 1 capital is composed of instruments that are not common equity. In the event of a crisis, equity is taken first from Tier 1. It´s a measurement of a bank’s core equity capital, compared with its total risk-weighted assets.

With the declines in government bonds in Europe coupled with near certain recession risk – bank balance sheets look more like Credit “Swiss Cheese” than strong financial institutions.

end

Are we approaching a Lehman moment again ?????

Robert Hryniak1:30 PM (3 minutes ago)
to

Repeatably, i caution our people and friends that i have grave concerns about the solvency of Europe as a whole and have severed all Euro investments and have resisted the temptation to invest in certain real estate, even at Bargain like prices. And i am of the opinion the 1st major financial problem in Europe will arise either from Deutsche or Credit Suisse and spread quickly. And whether this stays a European problem is the big question in today’s interrelated markets. However, no Euro related debt holds any intrinsic value for borrowing in. New York by holders. This in of itself is a big red flag. Thus, it comes as no surprise, that Credit Suisse’s Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, a derivative instrument that allows an investor to swap their credit risk with another investor, surged on Friday, reflecting the market perception of increasing risk. Is this real or just perception is the key and many people will be apprehensive in this current climate.  

There was plenty of movement around Credit Suisse over the weekend. On Friday, CEO Ulrich Koerner sent around a memo saying that the bank had a “strong capital base and liquidity position”, whilst senior executives spent their weekend doing their best to reassure large clients, counterparties and investors, according to the Financial Times. Rumor is that the Arabs are done. If they even attempt to yank cash funds in quantity or refuse swap trades with other banks by decree and advice, the musical chairs will start quickly, leaving someone without a chair. Too few players with too many related interests is a unqualified risk that cannot be easily quantified or settled. 
Not to be left in the cold and out, watch for London to sell short across the board as a sign of real grieve, if this starts. Because, the broader question is on what basis can even the ECB honor its’ swaps with the Fed or other Central Banks ? This is a mess that is brewing with many participants and very few concrete verifiable answers forth coming . Memo’s and the like have all been seen before and like before serve little to comfort anxiety. 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/AUSTRIA/ITALY/NATURAL GAS

Now Russian natural gas stops flowing into  Tarvisio Italy with problems at  Austria. Natural gas deliveries from Russia total are only 10%

(zerohedge)

Russian Gas Stops Flowing To Italy After ‘Problem’ In Austria

SATURDAY, OCT 01, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Russian energy giant Gazprom PJSC suspended natural gas deliveries to Eni SpA, Italy’s largest oil company, on Saturday, reported Bloomberg

“Gazprom informed that it is not able to confirm the gas volumes requested for today, stating that it’s not possible to supply gas through Austria. Therefore, today’s Russian gas supplies to Eni through the Tarvisio entry point will be at zero. Eni will provide updates in case supplies will be restored,” Eni wrote in a statement on its website. 

An Eni spokesperson told Bloomberg that Austria is still receiving NatGas from Gazprom:

“We are working to check with Gazprom whether it is possible to reactivate the flows to Italy.” 

Gazprom said NatGas flows from Austria to Italy were suspended because the Austrian operator refused to confirm “transport nominations” after recent regulatory changes in the landlocked country in the southern part of Central Europe.

It’s important to note most of the Russian NatGas delivered to Italy flows through Ukraine via the Trans Austria Gas Pipeline to Tarvisio in northern Italy on the border with Austria. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Italy imported 95% of its NatGas, of which 45% came from Russia.

Those figures are drastically different today as Italy rejiggers its energy supply chain away from Russia and finds alternative supplies of NatGas from North Africa. Before this weekend, Russian NatGas accounted for only 10% of Italy’s imports. The new suppliers will help Italy boost storage levels ahead of winter. 

“Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi has been scouring the globe to secure gas supplies to protect Italy from potential supply interruptions from Russia, which has been putting pressure on the European Union over several rounds of sanctions in response to the invasion. Italy has been one of the most successful countries to source alternative supplies,” Bloomberg noted. 

Last week, Gazprom said one of two remaining routes carrying NatGas to Europe — via Ukraine — was at risk because of legal issues. 

Today’s news comes days after underwater explosions damaged Gazprom’s Nord Stream system in the Baltic Sea. And less than a day after Russia annexed four regions in Ukraine, as well as Ukraine, applied to join NATO. 

END

IRAN

uprisings!

Iran’s Ayatollah Breaks Silence On Anti-Government “Riots”, Calls Uprising A US-Israeli Plot

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Iran’s “anti-hijab” protests are now in their third week, with a Norway-based monitor, Iran Human Rights (IHR), saying that at this point at least 92 Iranians have died as a result of the ongoing security services crackdown. 

Demonstrations and unrest have gripped dozens of cities, including parts of the Iranian capital, following last month’s death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, which sparked a wave of anger, especially among women who are demanding equal rights. But on Sunday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has weighed in on the protests for the first time, after having remained silent since their beginningProtesters in Tehran, via Shutterstock

He laid blame on the United States and Israel for fueling the unrest as part of efforts to fragment the Islamic Republic and its government, implying an ongoing regime change plot.

“I say explicitly that these riots and this insecurity were a design by the US and the occupying, fake Zionist regime [Israel] and those who are paid by them, and some traitorous Iranians abroad helped them,” Khamenei said.

Interestingly enough, the scathing words were issued at a graduation ceremony for police cadets in Tehran. Top officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were also said to be present for the speech.

“In the accident that happened, a young woman passed away, which also pained us, but reactions to her death before investigations [take place] … when some come to make the streets insecure, burn Qurans, take hijabs off covered women, and burn mosques and people’s cars – they’re not a normal, natural reaction,” Khamenei said.

His fiery denunciation of the protests as an externally driven plot, which have in some cases led to clashes with police and reported instances of live ammunition used by state forces to quell the unrest, strongly suggests that the crackdown is about to get a lot worse.

The weekend saw rare protests take over Tehran University, leading to a police raid on the campus, with riot control measures deployed. It briefly led to a standoff, also as internet and social media platforms continue to be limited and in some areas blocked.

“Students were demonstrating inside the prestigious Sharif University of Technology in the capital on Sunday afternoon when riot police surrounded the university for several hours, trapping the students and leaving several injured, before arresting a number of them in the latest crackdown on protesters, according to an official university students’ association and reports on local outlets,” Al Jazeera reported.

“The campus was eventually cleared, but surrounding streets remained busy until after midnight. After Sunday’s events, Sharif University announced that all classes would be held online until further notice,” the report added, noting that demonstrations also broke out at large university campuses in Shiraz, Mashhad, and other large cities.

The Iranian Islamic ‘Supreme Leader’s’ fierce protest denunciation in the speech made before security services means things are more than likely about to get worse as police go “gloves off”. 

end

Pentagon Creates New Military Command Training Ukrainian Soldiers to Fight Proxy War Against Russia – Big League Politics

Robert Hryniak10:14 AM (2 minutes ago)
to

Weeks ago, i wrote that this was coming.

The reality is that the conflict in the Ukraine will intensify.
Recent Ukrainian gains in regaining territories have come at tremendous cost. Indeed 3000 Russian troops made up of Chechens and LDR troops held against 40,000 Ukrainians inflicting losses of at least 5000 killed and an equal number wounded before being withdrawn. A week ago, it was obvious a withdrawal was planned when the Russian command center was moved back 150 kilometers from Lyman.  And yes, mistakes were made by both sides with the Russians already changing commanders.
Before commenting on what is really underway, i will allow the next few days to bring into focus what comes. As i doubt the Russians are in retreat or lacking resources. It is simply not how they plan their logistics.
After tomorrow through the course of this week it will be clear what they do.

As for Europe as of this morning apparently only Hungary is receiving gas ( fixed price until 2036) by pipe while Italy is being supplied limited LNG from Russia. The truth of what happens in Europe as to described gas in storage will become clearer through the passage this month. So far, i have seen no explanation of how this stored gas will be supplied without a pressure source. And if i am correct they will run out of availed natural gas before Christmas, with all that this means.
Nothing should be taken for granted. And the Ukraine fiasco is tragedy that will fade into obscurity as the real pain comes to Western Europe causing major upheavals.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL/

Stieber/EpochTimes)

How foolish: FDA withholding autopsy results on people who died after getting COVID vaccines.

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines

SATURDAY, OCT 01, 2022 – 04:30 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to release the results of autopsies conducted on people who died after getting COVID-19 vaccines.Syringes containing a COVID-19 vaccine in Needham, Mass., on June 21, 2022. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

The FDA says it is barred from releasing medical files, but a drug safety advocate says that it could release the autopsies with personal information redacted.

The refusal was issued to The Epoch Times, which submitted a Freedom of Information Act for all autopsy reported obtained by the FDA concerning any deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System following COVID-19 vaccination.

Reports are lodged with the system when a person experiences an adverse event, or a health issue, after receiving a vaccine. The FDA and other agencies are tasked with investigating the reports. Authorities request and review medical records to vet the reports, including autopsies.

The FDA declined to release any reports, even redacted copies.

The FDA cited federal law, which enables agencies to withhold information if the agency “reasonably foresees that disclosure would harm an interest protected by an exemption,” with the exemption being “personnel and medical files and similar files the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

Federal regulations also bar the release of “personnel, medical and similar files the disclosure of which constitutes a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

The Epoch Times has appealed the denial, in addition to the recent denial of results of data analysis of VAERS reports.

‘Easily Be Redacted’

Kim Witczak, a drug safety advocate who advises the FDA as part of the Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee, said that the reports could be released with personal information blacked out.

The personal information could easily be redacted without losing the potential learnings from [the] autopsy,” Witczak told The Epoch Times via email.

People make the choice to submit autopsy results to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, Witczak noted.

“If someone submits their experience to VAERS they want and expect to have it investigated by the FDA. This includes autopsy reports,” she said.

Autopsies are examinations of deceased persons performed to determine the cause of death.

“Autopsies can be an important part of postmortem analysis and should be done especially with increased deaths following COVID-19 vaccination,” Witczak said.

FDA Responds

An FDA spokesperson noted that deaths following COVID-19 vaccination are rare, citing the number of reports made to VAERS.

As of Sept. 14, 16,516 reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination have been reported. Approximately 616 million doses have been administered in the United States through September.

The spokesperson declined to say whether the FDA would ever release the autopsy results, but pointed to a paper authored by researchers with the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Read more here…

end

SWEDEN/VACCINES

Sweden sees the light!! They have now stopped recommending COVID 19 vaccines to children 12 -17

(Philips/EpochTimes)

Sweden Stops Recommending COVID-19 Vaccines For Children

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Swedish Public Health Authority has stopped recommending healthy children between the ages of 12 and 17 receive the COVID-19 vaccine.

The general recommendation that healthy children aged 12 to 17 receive the COVID-19 vaccine ended after Oct. 31, according to the authority in a revision posted this weekend.

It cited the “very low risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19” in children and teens for the change. After Oct. 31, vaccination will be recommended for only certain children in vulnerable groups.

Soren Andersson, an official in the Swedish health agency, elaborated on the rule change to broadcaster SVT and said that “we see that the need for care as a result of COVID-19 has been low among children and young people during the pandemic” and added that the need for vaccines has “decreased since the virus variant omicron began to spread.”

“In this phase of the pandemic, we do not see that there is a continued need for vaccination in this group,” Andersson continued.

For people over the age of 18, the Swedish health authority is still recommending three vaccine doses. Four doses are recommended for people over the age of 65.

Unlike most other countries, Sweden refused to implement draconian COVID-19 lockdowns. Data and studies have shown that the highly developed Scandinavian nation may have experienced less harm from the virus and lockdowns as compared with nations that did implement those measures.

After seeing a relatively high death toll at the start of the pandemic, Sweden is now seeing fewer deaths per capita than the European average, according to the AFP news agency.

Denmark Makes Vaccine Change

In nearby Denmark, authorities issued a similar rule change and will not offer people under the age of 50 more COVID-19 vaccine boosters.

“The purpose of vaccination is not to prevent infection with COVID-19, and people aged under 50 are therefore currently not being offered booster vaccination,” the country’s health agency wrote in a Sept. 13 statement.

Denmark also explicitly dropped any pretense of stopping the spread of COVID-19 and said it will focus on protecting vulnerable individuals from developing severe symptoms.

Individuals under the age of 50, it said, “are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill” from the virus. At the same time, younger people are also “well protected against becoming severely ill” and a “very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected,” according to the authority.

The UK Health Security Agency said around the same time that children who hadn’t turned 5 by the end of August wouldn’t be offered vaccines.

end

Important message from Michael Yeadon to us all

must read

Dr. Michael Yeadon: The Most Important Single Message I’ve Ever Written

By Dr. Mike Yeadon

Global Research, September 02, 2022

Exposing the Darkness 1 September 2022

Theme: Science and Medicine

All Global Research articles can be read in 51 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version).

To receive Global Research’s Daily Newsletter (selected articles), click here.

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***

Dear everyone, who is nervously looking around and is asking “What the hell is going on?”

I hope this isn’t too controversial. It’s certainly frightening, but I believe we are still on the right side of disaster & if enough of us become aware of what is happening here & everywhere in the democratic world, we can recover the situation. We really don’t have long. I believe it’s likely things will change irretrievably over this coming winter. Hence this urgent and unusual request.

Everything that’s happened and is happening becomes much simpler and it all makes sense, only when you force yourself to think the impossible.

If you experimentally adopt the position that OUR GOVERNMENT IS ACTIVELY WORKING TO HARM US, TO DISMANTLE MODERN SOCIETY & ENSLAVE ALL PEOPLE IN A DIGITALLY CONTROLLED TOTALITARIAN WORLD, it all fits. Nothing is surplus.

Even if your immediate response is that this is absurd, please try it for a day or so.

I ask you further to adopt the experimental position that the media, controlled by just six global corporations, all allied to a single global organization you’ve all heard of, is relentlessly lying to you and has been doing so for over 2.5 years. Same for the internet, controlled by fewer global corporations, also all allied to that same global organization.

Because I am certain it’s true. I am certain because this all started with a scientific fraud relating to a virus, augmented it with a relentless campaign of fear, imposed measures known to be useless, which wrecked the economy and smashed civil society, then coerced most to accept useless, unnecessary, ineffective and deliberately dangerous injections. Obviously, this is an odious crime. Nothing like it has ever happened.

I’ve been 41 years in life sciences from training to successful biotech CEO and was worldwide research head and Vice President of Pfizer’s respiratory unit (1995-2011).

I have absolutely no incentive to say any of this if I wasn’t certain.

I am certain. This all took place “in my wheelhouse”, my domain of expertise.

Please consider what I’ve said.

’’I’ve given over 70 interviews, all censored. I’ve been foully smeared. It’s propaganda. It tells you what they’re capable of.

Here’s what Pfizer’s former board member wrote about my accomplishments: Turning Pfizer Discards Into Novartis Gold: The Story Of Ziarco

Do I sound like a fool?

Many have asked why people didn’t resist tyrants in the past. Partly it is fear. But it’s more than that. It’s that normal people, like you and me, simply cannot imagine being so evil. We trust in humanity. And so we should. Most people are good. Few are truly terrifyingly horrible. But some are. It’s the inability to believe it’s happening that really stopped people objecting when they should, when the evidence was unmistakable but had not yet quite reached their door, their family.

They are coming for you and your children. It is happening again. There’s ample evidence emerging of long-term, patient planning. I’m so sorry.

It’s now up to you. I genuinely don’t see what else I can do.

Best wishes & sincere thanks,

Dr. Michael Yeadon

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

This is a must read…

Michael Hudson on The Euro Without Germany

Posted onSeptember 30, 2022by Conor Gallagher

Conor: Germany’s swift demise reminds me of the German intelligence agent Bachmann in “A Most Wanted Man.” He’s led to believe he’s operating on an equal level with CIA and British intelligence only to realize too late he was being played the whole time.

Hudson gets to the bottom of what Germany’s downfall will mean for the euro and what the options are for Global South and Eurasian countries as they try to stand up to US hegemony.

By Michael Hudson, a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City, and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. His latest book is The Destiny of Civilization.

The reaction to the sabotage of three of the four Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in four places on Monday, September 26, has focused on speculations about who did it and whether NATO will make a serious attempt to discover the answer. Yet instead of panic, there has been a great sigh of diplomatic relief, even calm. Disabling these pipelines ends the uncertainty and worries on the part of US/NATO diplomats that nearly reached a crisis proportion the previous week, when large demonstrations took place in Germany calling for the sanctions to end and to commission Nord Stream 2 to resolve energy shortage.

The German public was coming to understand what it meant that their steel companies, fertilizer companies, glass companies and toilet-paper companies were shutting down. These companies were forecasting that they would have to go out of business entirely – or shift operations to the United States – if Germany did not withdraw from the trade and currency sanctions against Russia and permit gas and oil imports to resume, and presumably to fall back from their astronomical eight to tenfold increase.

Yet State Department hawk Victoria Nuland already had stated in January that “one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward” if Russia responded to NATO/Ukrainian accelerated military attacks on the Russian-speaking eastern oblasts. President Biden backed up U.S. insistence on February 7, promising that “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. … I promise you, we will be able to do it.”

Most observers simply assumed that these statements reflected the obvious fact that German politicians were fully in the US/NATO pocket. They held fast in refusing to authorize Nord Stream 2, and Canada soon seized the Siemens dynamos needed to send gas through Nord Stream 1. That seemed to settle matters until German industry – and a rising number of voters – finally began to calculate just what blocking Russian gas would mean for Germany’s industrial firm. 

Germany’s willingness to self-impose an economic depression was wavering – although not its politicians or the EU bureaucracy. If German policymakers were to put German business interests and living standards first, NATO’s common sanctions and New Cold War front would be broken. Italy and France might follow suit. That nightmare of European diplomatic independence made it urgent to take the anti-Russian sanctions out of the hands of democratic politics and settle matters by sabotaging the two pipelines. Despite being an act of violence, it has restored calm to international diplomatic relations between U.S. and German politicians. 

There is no more uncertainty about whether or not Europe will break away from U.S. New Cold War aims by restoring mutual trade and investment with Russia. That option is now out. The threat of Europe beaking away from the US/NATO trade and financial sanctions against Russia has been solved, seemingly for the foreseeable future, as Russia has announced that as the gas pressure falls in three of the four pipelines, the infusion of salt water will irreversibly corrode the pipes. (Tagesspiegel, September 28.) 

Where do the euro and dollar go from here?

Looking at how this trade “solution” will reshape the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the euro, one can understand why the seemingly obvious consequences of Germany, Italy and other European economies severing trade ties with Russia have not been discussed openly. The “sanctions debate” has been solved by a German and indeed Europe-wide economic crash. To Europe, the next decade will be a disaster. There may be recriminations against the price paid for letting its trade diplomacy be dictated by NATO, but there is nothing that it can do about it. Nobody (yet) expects it to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. What is expected is for its living standards to plunge.

Germany’s industrial exports were the major factor supporting the euro’s exchange rate. The great attraction to Germany in moving from the deutsche mark to the euro would avoid its export surplus from pushing up the D-mark’s exchange rate to a point where German products would be priced out of world markets. Expanding the currency to include Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and other countries running balance-of-payments deficit would prevent the currency from soaring. And that would protect the competitiveness of German industry.

After its introduction in 1999 at $1.12, the euro did indeed sink to $0.85 by July 2001, but recovered and indeed rose to $1.58 in April 2008. It has been drifting down steadily since then, and since February of this year the sanctions have driven the euro’s exchange rate below parity with the dollar to $0.97 this week. The major factor has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying its US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals – will rise, squeezing their profits.

This is not the kind of depression that “automatic stabilizers” can work “the magic of the marketplace” to restore economic balance. Energy dependency is structural. And the eurozone’s own economic rules limit its budget deficits to just 3% of GDP. This prevents its national governments supporting the economic by deficit spending. Higher energy and food prices – and dollar-debt service – will leave much less income to be spent on goods and services. 

It seems curious that the U.S. stock market soared – 500 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday. Maybe it was simply the Plunge Protection Team intervening to try and reassure the world that everything was going to be all right. But economic reality raised its ugly head on Thursday, and the stock market gave back its phantom gains.

It is true that the end of German industrial competition with United States is ended on trade account. But on capital account, depreciation of the euro will reduce the value of U.S. investments in Europe and the dollar-value of any profits that these investments may still earn as the European economy shrinks. So reported earnings by U.S. multinationals will fall.

As a final kicker, Pepe Escobar pointed out on September 28 that “Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030. … Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. … Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.” It looks like a long court battle before money will change hands – but Germany’s ability to pay will be steadily weakening.

For that matter, the ability of many countries’ ability to pay already is reaching the breaking point.

The effect of U.S. sanctions and New Cold War outside of Europe

International raw materials are still priced mainly in dollars, so the dollar’s rising exchange rate will raise import prices proportionally for most countries. This exchange-rate problem is intensified by the US/NATO sanctions forcing up world prices for gas, oil and grain. Many European and Global South countries already have reached the limit of their ability to service their dollar-denominated debts, and are still coping with the Covid pandemic. They cannot afford to import the energy and food that they need to live if they have to pay their foreign debts. The world economy is now exceeding its debt limits, so something has to give.

On Tuesday, September 27 when news of the Nord Stream gas attacks became known, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shed crocodile tears and said that attacking Russian pipelines was “in no one’s interest.” But if that really were the case, no one would have attacked the gas lines.

I have no doubt that U.S. strategists have a game plan for how to proceed from here, and to do so that indeed is in what the neocons claim to be in the U.S. interest – that of maintaining a unipolar neoliberalized and financialized global economy for as long as they can. 

They have long had a plan for countries that are unable to their foreign debts. The IMF will lend them the money, conditional upon the debtor country raising the foreign exchange to repay the (increasingly expensive) dollar loans by privatizing what remains of their public domain, natural-resource patrimony and other assets, mainly to U.S. financial investors and their allies.

Will it work? Or will debtor countries band together and work out ways to restore the seemingly lost world of affordable oil and gas prices, fertilizer prices, grain and other food prices, and metals or raw materials supplied by Russia, China and their allied Eurasian neighbors? 

That is the next great worry for U.S. global strategists. It seems less easy to solve than was done by the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2. But the solution seems to be the usual U.S. approach: something military in nature, new color revolutions. The aim is to gain the same power over Global South and Eurasian countries that American diplomacy wielded over Germany and other European countries via NATO.

Unless an institutional alternative is created to the IMF, World Bank, International Court, World Trade Organization and the numerous UN agencies now biased by U.S. diplomats and their proxies, the coming decades will see the U.S. economic strategy of financial and military dominance unfold as Washington has planned.

The problem is that its plans for how the Ukraine war and anti-Russian sanctions have worked out so far have been just the reverse of what was announced. That may give some hope for the world’s future. The opposition and even contempt by U.S. diplomats to other countries acting in their own economic interest and social values is so strong that they are unwilling to think through just how these countries might develop their own alternative to the U.S. world plan.

The question is thus how successfully these other countries may develop their alternative new economic order, and how they can protect themselves from the fate that Europe has just imposed upon itself for the next decade.

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This entry was posted in CommoditiesCurrenciesEconomic fundamentalsEnergy marketsEuropeRussia on September 30, 2022 by Conor Gallagher.endGLOBAL ISSUESCANADAlooks like Canada will have a food affordability problem(Charlebois/EpochTimes)

Canada Has A Food Affordability Problem

FRIDAY, SEP 30, 2022 – 08:25 PM

Authored by Sylvain Charlebois via The Epoch Times,

Did you know that there is a global food security index? The well-known magazine The Economist has just published its 11th edition.

The Global Food Security Index comprises a set of indices from more than 120 different countries. Since 2012, the index has been based on four main pillars: food access, safety, sustainable development, and affordability.

The approach is quite comprehensive and robust. Index indicators include nutritional standards, urban absorptive capacity, food consumption as a percentage of household expenditure, food loss and waste, protein quality, agricultural import tariffs, dietary diversification, agricultural infrastructure, volatility of agricultural production, public spending on agricultural resource and development, corruption, risks to political stability, and even the sufficiency of supply. In short, anything goes.

Finland ranks first this year, followed by Ireland and Norway. Canada is well-positioned compared to other countries around the world since we are ranked seventh globally, the same as last year. Not bad. The United States is 13th.

In terms of food access—which measures agricultural production, farm capacities, and the risk of supply disruption—Canada ranks sixth, which is not too surprising. Despite our recent episodes of empty shelves and stockouts, Canada can boast about its food abundance. We produce a lot and are part of a fluid North American economy focused on cross-border trade, which allows for better food access.

Another pillar focuses on sustainable development, the environment, and climate adaptability. This pillar assesses a country’s exposure to the impacts of climate change, its sensitivity to risks related to natural resources, food waste management, and how the country adapts to these risks. In this regard, Canada is ranked 29th, far behind Norway and Finland, who are first and second in this category. Food waste remains Canada’s Achilles’ heel, as we waste more than just about anyone else on the planet.

But with higher food prices, more than 40 percent of Canadians, according to a recent study, are wasting less than they were 12 months ago.

When it comes to food safety and quality, Canada ranks first in the world. Canada is ahead of everyone, even Denmark and the United States, both renowned for their proactive approaches to food safety. Food safety in Canada is perhaps the facet most underappreciated by consumers.

Despite a few momentary failures and periodic reminders, sanitation practices in the country are exemplary. Canada has consistently ranked well for years, except perhaps when traceability is measured. We have a long way to go, but the industry and public safety regulators are performing relatively well.

But the area where Canada’s performance is of some concern is food affordability. This measure is dedicated to consumers’ ability to purchase food, their vulnerability to price shocks, and the presence of programs and policies to support consumers when shocks occur.

Canada fell one spot again this year and sits at 25th in the world. Australia, Singapore, and Holland top the list for affordability. Given the resources and food access we have, Canada should do better. Since July 2021, food inflation has always exceeded general inflation in the country, and everything is already costing more these days. Higher food prices at the grocery store over the past year have been difficult for many of us to accept. Canada needs a food autonomy policy, a more robust food processing sector, and better logistics domestically.

And with winter coming and our dollar visibly weakening against the U.S. dollar, we could see significant price jumps again, especially in the produce and non-perishables sections. As wages stagnate and food prices rise, it’s hard to predict when Canada will do better in terms of affordability. Specific fiscal measures such as tax reductions to help consumers would be more than timely.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

important to dead!! record deaths from COVID 19 despite fully vaccinated. Why? loss of immunity

(zerohedge)

Record Deaths in Australia from COVID-19 Despite 96.4% of 16+ Fully Vaxxed; Despite the fact that the population of Australia is nearly universally vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2

Australia is one of the most vaccinated populations in the world against COVID-19 yet as TrialSite reported earlier this year has experienced unprecedented pandemic related deaths. Vaccine anyone????

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 30
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://www.trialsitenews.com/a/record-deaths-in-australia-from-covid-19-despite-96.4-of-16-fully-vaxxed-9cff928d

Despite the fact that the population of Australia is nearly universally vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, TrialSite has reported that record numbers of deaths accumulated at the beginning of 2022. This is despite the universal protection of the vaccine. Yet breakthrough infections led to growing numbers of deaths in the most at-risk cohorts such as the elderly.

Now, mainstream media starts to acknowledge the trend. Recently, the 
Sydney Morning Herald reports in “COVID complications Push Australian deaths to highest number in 40 years,” that based on an analysis of the Australian Bureau of Statistics population data that total deaths nationwide are 18% higher in the quarter when compared to the prior year, rising from 36,100 to 46,200 deaths. 

Labeled as “COVID-19’s hidden impact,” more people have died in Australia in the March quarter than any time in the last 41 years.  Half the deaths in this period were from COVID despite an overwhelming  vaccination rate. See the rates below:

Age Cohort

%

One Dose 16+

98.1%

Two Dose 16+

96.4%

Three Dose 16+

71.8%

Australia is one of the most vaccinated populations in the world against COVID-19 yet as TrialSite reported earlier this year has experienced unprecedented pandemic related deaths.  Does this trend evidence a failure of the COVID-19 vaccines?

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Very true!! sperm concentration and mobility damaged by vaccine

H.

by Paul Alexander.

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Open in browserUK Health Security Agency Ambulance Syndromic Surveillance System, Week 30′; ambulance call-outs relating to immediate care required for debilitating condition affecting heart nearly doubled in 2021
This chart is daily number of 999 calls requesting an ambulance due to suffering cardiac arrest in England vs the expected rate (black dotted line); daily number of calls has been way above average
Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 2 
▷  LISTENSAVE What does this chart tell you or signal? Do you think it could be related to the vaccine roll-out? I say 100%. These people, in UK, US etc. must prove it is not.

SOURCE:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pfizergate-official-government-reports-prove-hundreds-thousands-people-dying-every-single-week-due-covid-19-vaccination/5790262

Sperm concentration & motility damaged by COVID vaccine: “Covid-19 vaccination BNT162b2 temporarily impairs semen concentration and total motile count among semen donors” (Gat & Baum)

Do not worry though guys, the paper is written typical ‘woke’ BS style, researchers report and potentially devastating outcome due to the vaccine yet says “it’s temporary likely, prognosis looks good”

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 30
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

I covered this topic before but it is important for those wanting the new ineffective failed and harmful bivalent Pfizer 5th shot, just in case you missed the prior stack:

SOURCE:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/andr.13209

interesting!!!

Open in browser

Peer-review scam in medical Journal Publishing (in NATURE journal); the scam involved publishing behemoths Elsevier, Springer, Taylor & Francis, SAGE and Wiley, as well as Informa

dated, but highly applicable to the corrupted garbage biased low quality untrustworthy journal editors out today, the entire process is a scam and medical journal publishing is DEAD, COVID killed it

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 30
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://www.nature.com/articles/515480a

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Open in browser

Medical JOURNAL curruption: Hindawi and Wiley to retract over 500 papers linked to peer review rings; you know what that means, they are admitting corruption in THEIR publishing circle, THEM

After months of investigation that identified networks of reviewers & editors manipulating the peer review process, Hindawi plans to retract 511 papers across 16 journals, Retraction Watch has learnt

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 30
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

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Are you hiding mass MURDER, FDA? FDA refused to release Pfizer documents for 75 years until judge ordered; and now “FDA Refuses to Release Autopsy Results on People Who Died After COVID Vaccines”

The U.S. FDA said it’s barred from releasing the results of autopsies conducted on people who died after getting COVID-19 vaccines, why? There is a way to release confidentially, FDA knows this

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to release the results of autopsies conducted on people who died after getting COVID-19 vaccines.

The FDA says it is barred from releasing medical files, but a drug safety advocate says that it could release the autopsies with personal information redacted.

The refusal was issued to The Epoch Times, which submitted a Freedom of Information Act for all autopsy reported obtained by the FDA concerning any deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) following COVID-19 vaccination.

Reports are lodged with the system when a person experiences an adverse event, or a health issue, after receiving a vaccine.

The FDA and other agencies are tasked with investigating the reports. Authorities request and review medical records to vet the reports, including autopsies.

The FDA declined to release any reports, even redacted copies.

The FDA cited federal law, which enables agencies to withhold information if the agency “reasonably foresees that disclosure would harm an interest protected by an exemption,” with the exemption being “personnel and medical files and similar files the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

Federal regulations also bar the release of “personnel, medical and similar files the disclosure of which constitutes a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

The Epoch Times has appealed the denial, in addition to the recent denial of results of data analysis of VAERS reports.

‘Easily be redacted’

Kim Witczak, a drug safety advocate who advises the FDA as part of the Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee, said that the reports could be released with personal information blacked out.

“The personal information could easily be redacted without losing the potential learnings from [the] autopsy,” Witczak told The Epoch Times via email.

People make the choice to submit autopsy results to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, Witczak noted.

“If someone submits their experience to VAERS they want and expect to have it investigated by the FDA. This includes autopsy reports,” she said.

Autopsies are examinations of deceased persons performed to determine the cause of death.

“Autopsies can be an important part of postmortem analysis and should be done especially with increased deaths following COVID-19 vaccination,” Witczak said.

FDA responds

An FDA spokesperson noted that deaths following COVID-19 vaccination are rare, citing the number of reports made to VAERS.

As of Sept. 14, 16,516 reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination have been reported. Approximately 616 million doses have been administered in the U.S. through September.

The spokesperson declined to say whether the FDA would ever release the autopsy results but pointed to a paper authored by researchers with the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, analyzed the approximately 9,800 reports of death to VAERS following COVID-19 vaccination lodged from Dec. 14, 2020, to Nov. 17, 2021.

Researchers found that reporting rates were lower than the expected all-cause mortality rates.

“Trends in reporting rates reflected known trends in background mortality rates. These findings do not suggest an association between vaccination and overall increased mortality,” the researchers wrote.

The researchers noted that prior studies have found that adverse events reported to VAERS are an undercount of the true number of events.

SOURCE:

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Open in browserRand Paul to Fauci: “You killed millions of people!” Heated Moment in Congress as Rand Paul EXPOSES New Facts on Fauci, September 28th 2022; near 95% of children have had COVID infection, so why vax?Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1 ▷  LISTENSAVE SOURCE:

Interesting!!

Pfizer’s CEO pulls out of testifying to EU Parliament COVID panel; High-level contacts between Bourla & European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before multibillion-euro vaccine deal

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla has pulled out of an appointment to testify before the European Parliament’s special committee on COVID-19, at which he was expected to face tough questions

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Pharmaceutical Executives Testify At Senate Finance Committee Hearing On Drug Prices

SOURCE:

https://www.politico.eu/article/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-pulls-out-of-testifying-to-eu-parliament-covid-panel/

Dr. Harvey Risch: “Doctors Must Be Free to Practice Medicine with Independence”

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

By Harvey Risch
September 26, 2022

When the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, Ashish Jha, noted that “G-d gave us two arms” as part of a coordinated push encouraging both the flu and Covid vaccines, it represented more than an offhand quip. Jha’s statement showed that even as the global pandemic recedes, the “government-knows-best” mentality of the last two and a half years is here to stay.

In today’s climate, it may not be easy, but doctors must be willing to demonstrate professional independence. Doctors should always trust their own instincts and expertise, drawing from the full spectrum of observational, academic, and personal evidence to offer treatment to patients as they think best, without fear of reprisal or political pressure.

This is especially difficult at a time when certification boards and even states threaten doctors who exercise independent judgment. The California State Senate has passed legislation—which is sitting on Governor Newsom’s desk—that would take legal action against medical practitioners deemed guilty of “mis-informing” patients about Covid vaccines. But the vaccine risks have been carefully enumerated. Why should doctors who discuss these facts with patients be threatened with the loss of their livelihoods? Don’t patients have the right to receive informed consent? Isn’t that obligatory for doctors to provide?

Science is not static. It is always evolving. The pandemic has shown time and again that theories dismissed one day as fringe can become established, and then even further refined. Early in the pandemic The National Institutes of Health emphatically recommended against the use of corticosteroids to treat Covid, then a few months later it reversed course. And of course, Fauci has flip-flopped on masks and on lockdowns since March 2020—and regrets nothing. Most important of all, for a year and a half, CDC maintained that the Covid EUA vaccines strongly reduced population risk of infection transmission. Full stop. Any other message was deemed “misinformation.” Remarkably, on August 11, CDC itself publicly admitted that taking two vaccine doses does not prevent transmission, and that booster doses provide only transient and waning benefit. That is, that the vaccines have failed as a public health response to limiting Covid infection. Many scientists and doctors already observed this failure six-to-nine months ago. Should telling that fact to patients have been illegal then but allowable now?

Punishing or delegitimizing doctors who exercise independent judgment flies in the face of hundreds of years of medical practice. Some are fighting back. The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons has just filed suit in the Southern District of Texas against the American Board of Internal Medicine, the American Board of Obstetrics & Gynecology, and the American Board of Family Medicine, who have been threatening to de-certify doctors for expressing independent judgment. Several doctors have sued the FDA for unjustly influencing their independent medical practices.

The trust between patient and doctor must be repaired as soon as possible, and especially ahead of the next major public health crisis. We need to learn from two years of avoidable mistakes that have inflicted untold pain and cost lives needlessly.

Telemedicine has important roles to play in this process. The practice, which is essentially a virtual face-to-face visit with a medical professional, makes it easier for patients to access doctors, as well as to obtain second opinions. More than 20 percent of Americans already use telemedicine for their health needs. With 74 percent of doctors practicing in tightly controlled hospital or corporate medical environments, telemedicine provides patients with a pathway to access independent-minded doctors who exhibit critical thinking and draw from a broader range of evidence and practice to treat individual needs and circumstances.

Not all telemedicine groups allow unfettered doctor expertise and independence. But the recognition that a large fraction of doctor-patient interactions can be carried out by telemedicine, and that patients benefit by saving substantial travel and waiting time and have access to a wider geographic distribution of care, has stimulated its broader use. It’s a major opportunity to reverse the trend of increasing straitjacket corporatism of medicine and return ability back to independent doctors who use their considered expertise to do the best for their patients.

With the pandemic waning, I hope that more doctors will rediscover their intellectual independence and practice medicine freely without fear.

VACCINE IMPACT/

Red Cross Admits They do Not Separate Vaccinated from Unvaccinated Blood – Mother Claims Baby Died from Blood Clots of Donated Blood

September 30, 2022 2:25 pm

Earlier this month (September 2022), the Red Cross admitted that they don’t label blood products as originating from COVID-19 vaccinated people or blood from unvaccinated people. The reason they don’t separate or apparently distinguish blood from COVID-19 vaccinated or unvaccinated people is because they believe that “the COVID-19 vaccine does not enter the bloodstream & poses no safety risks to the recipient.” As Kyle Becker of Becker News recently pointed out, this statement by the Red Cross that the COVID-19 vaccine does not affect the bloodstream is contradicted by several published studies. The Gateway Pundit recently published the story of Cornelia Hertzler of Hot Springs, Montana, who gave birth to a baby boy on January 3, 2022 who died just a month later on February 17, 2022 from blood clots just after receiving a blood transfusion. Mrs. Hertzler believes that her one-month-old baby died from a blood clot caused by receiving “COVID-vaccinated blood” during a blood transfusion. There is no indication that Mrs. Hertzler was able to receive any information about the vaccination status of the person who donated their blood that was used in her baby, and she perhaps was just drawing conclusions based on the fact that about 80% of the U.S. population has now received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and that COVID-19 vaccinated people who have now died commonly have strange blood clots, according to reports from funeral home embalmers. Either way, we are surely going to see more tragic stories like this one until someone steps forward to provide blood that is clearly marked as coming from either COVID-19 vaccinated people, or unvaccinated people. And if the Red Cross is not going to do this, then it sounds like there is a potential lucrative business opportunity for others to step in and fulfill.

Read More…

Has WWIII Begun? What the U.S. Corporate Media is not Reporting about Russia’s Annexation of Ukraine Regions

October 2, 2022 4:41 pm

If one is only getting their “news” about the current war in Ukraine from the United States Corporate Media, they are getting a very slanted view which basically states that Russia is in trouble and is losing the war, and is getting desperate. Someone who does not take the time to read Russia’s perspective from their English news sources, as well as other perspectives from both western and non-western sources that disagree, may be totally unprepared for what is about to happen next. The recent referendum votes and the “annexation” of certain regions in Ukraine by Russia, an action that is almost the same move Russia took on previous Ukraine regions that started the war back in February this year, is a perfect example of how the U.S. media is reporting this move, and how Russia and others are saying things that are very different. Since this affects us all, it is prudent that we look at both sides of this issue, because the non-U.S. Corporate Media sources are almost all saying that Russia clearly has the upper hand over Ukraine, and that they are about to start the next phase of this war that some are claiming is the beginning of WWIII.

Read More…


The Dystopian Vision of the Health Information Police – California Bill Seeks to Censor and Punish Dissenting Doctors

September 30, 2022 4:20 pm

Assembly Bill 2098 would empower the Medical Board of California to go after the licenses of physicians who disseminate “misinformation” or “disinformation” regarding Covid-19. The bill in its latest iteration defines misinformation as “false information that is contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus contrary to the standard of care.” The inscrutability of this definition lies at the core of the bill’s opponents concerns.  No clear scientific consensus exists with respect to this novel virus, and even if it did, it may be proven incorrect later. Without clear guidance regarding what would constitute “misinformation,” physicians can only guess if they risk losing their licenses for expressing their good-faith disagreements with positions of public health officials. Even if in practice, the Medical Board only applied the law to speech that the First Amendment does not protect, the law’s vagueness would render it unconstitutional, because it would tend to cause doctors to censor themselves.

Read More…

20-Year-Old Medical Student from Kansas Dies from Heart Attack ONE DAY After COVID Vaccine

October 1, 2022 1:47 pm

The family of a 20-year-old medical student in Kansas is reeling after she succumbed to a cardiac arrest within one day of receiving a Covid-19 vaccine. In a tragic Facebook post Tuesday, the family of Regan Lewis commented they “can’t say for sure there is a link” between her untimely death and the Covid shot she received one day prior in order to take part in nursing school clinical studies. “I can’t say for sure that there is a link, but our beautiful 20 year old healthy daughter, Regan Lewis had a Covid shot yesterday so she could participate in her clinicals,” Regan’s mother Connie wrote on Facebook. “Today, she went into cardiac arrest and has been flown to Kearney. She is on a ventilator and is fighting for her life. PLEASE PLEASE PRAY FOR HER!” In subsequent updates, Connie later revealed her daughter “coded,” meaning her heart rate flatlined, and she passed away shortly thereafter.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

DEMOCIDE?! Australia Mass Die Off Continues/ Huge Surge Unabated. Deaths Up 20-50%+

Robert Hryniak11:25 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

If this follows in other countries, the problem will be available trained people for anything. Besides people who are ill do not consume.
While i watch this insane march to war over waning hegemony i wonder how anyone thinks a real fighting force can be maintained while the ranks of able bodied people is declining with no thought of a supply of replacement personnel.
As it is pilots are in short supply and will become a thinner rank able to to fly in months ahead.

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Vaccines | Free Full-Text | A Case Report: Multifocal Necrotizing Encephalitis and Myocarditis after BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccination against COVID-19

Robert Hryniak4:46 PM (18 minutes ago)
to

Insanity

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/10/1651

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MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A MUST READ

(Michael Every)

From Useful Idiots To Useless Idiots

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 11:25 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

From Useful Idiots to Useless Idiots

As bullets fly, if you are someone who only responds to bullet points, try these two:

  1. We may be on the verge of a replay of 2008 – but we can’t use the same central bank policy responses without creating massive inflation, global Arab Springs, and global chaos.
  2. It took a special kind of thinking to get us into this mess, and an equally special kind of thinking is not helping extract us from it.

Before explaining in more detail, first a hat-tip for today’s title to an @andreapitzer tweet: “Noticing the rise of a new category of pundit: the useless idiot.” Her joke refers to the Leninist phrase “Useful idiot”, the definition of which is: “a political insult that describes a person who, through manipulation or not, is useful to a political cause that is not their own despite not fully realizing their role. This makes them “an idiot,” an unwitting and useful pawn of a propagandist.” If you didn’t know that the odds of you being one are exponentially higher than if you did.

For examples, try those who have run the West’s energy, foreign, trade, fiscal, and monetary policy. Too harsh? Well, how else did we end up in this crisis? Following the Ukraine war, the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2, and Gazprom cutting off gas supplies to Italy, such useful idiots are shifting…. but only to show that they are useless idiots.

The EU is to agree 5% power demand reductions in peak periods: how? Eenie-meenie-miney-moe? It may have enough energy for this winter – if no further pipelines its underfunded navies are now rushing to protect are sabotaged. But EU energy will not be cheap for many years. Germany’s fiscal largesse to prevent outright deindustrialisation, already dividing Europe, is going to require WW2-scale fiscal deficits for as long as WW2. That as Bloomberg reports Biden Officials Float Fuel Export Limit in Meeting With Refinersgreat – let’s have a global shortage of fuel too!

Yet the IMF is advising tighter fiscal policy and cuts to social spending into a recession(!)

The UK government says its voters have been living in a “Fool’s paradise” and welcomes a new “age of austerity” – into a biting recession. History shows us that will likely play out.

As an anecdote of how much of an EM the UK now is, my cousin took a coach from Glasgow to London on Saturday because the trains were on strike (as was the postal service). The coach got as far as Newcastle before dumping the passengers with no explanation. He shared a taxi the rest of the 250 mile (472 km) journey; arrived in London to find street protests against government spending cuts, driven by insufficient energy supplies; and then all four of the bridges over the Thames leading to his accommodation closed by protestors saying the UK should stop using oil. Yesterday, another protestor poured urine and faeces over a memorial to a selfless WW2 pilot to protest executive private jets. And @lewis_goodall adds: ““Senior government source” quoted in today’s Times: “Nobody understands gilts, nobody understands the bond markets unless you’re in it. Certainly no MPs do. We are not running a hedge fund, we are running a government. We are thinking about the long term.”” Wrongly: but ‘long term’ does not seem to apply anywhere else.

The BOE were just forced to step in to save UK pension funds using leverage and derivatives to juice low returns following the GFC caused by funds using leverage and derivatives to juice returns. Even though central banks had made it abundantly clear they would raise rates, such trades sat there until a yield surge almost brought down the financial system (again).

Bullet dodged? Maybe. But WE ARE IN A WAR: lots of bullets are flying! The markets will test the BOE again. It will have to act again, in a ‘not QE and not MMT’ manner. It surely will not carry on with QT. That changes our political-economy, unless you are too useful an idiot to see it. And if the BOE acts, GBP will slump, which would be inflationary; and if it doesn’t act, markets will slump, and GBP could still follow.

This is not a British but a global problem everyone could see coming: how do you raise rates when there so much debt has been created by so many years of so low rates?

Is it any surprise that this weekend saw rumours a major investment bank is about to fail? Or that there is talk of European and US pension funds risk being dragged into exactly the same position as the UK, because none were aligned for rates to ever really rise, even as inflation shot up?

Accordingly, while the BOE now has to do more on rates, Bloomberg and @CGasparino suggest a growing split within the FOMC. The latter notes: “@federalreserve officials getting increasingly worried about “financial stability” as opposed to inflation as higher rates begin to crush bonds, several big investors tell me. Fed growing worried about possible “Lehman Moment” w a 4% FF rate as Bonds and derivatives tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause.”

However, while Fed Deputy Governor Brainard is watching financial market stability outside the US, and Daly does not want to ‘do too much’, their message is still that US inflation is the priority  given the PCE deflator numbers on Friday, and initial claims numbers Thursday. Indeed, Brainard stated: “Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target.. .For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”

So, CNBC can scream ‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world’ – but that does not mean that things can’t and won’t break.

Importantly, even if the Fed wanted to pivot now, it perhaps couldn’t. We see a domestic wage-price spiral underway; and there is a battle over the global financial architecture.

Friday, President Putin gave a vitriolic speech obviously a call to arms against a colonialist, racist, apartheid, perverted hypocrite West in a hybrid war against Russia; claim there is no rules-based order; that the US has created a “precedent” for use of nukes; the West is stealing Ukraine’s grain; blew up Nord Stream; and a new global alliance will rise up against it. Frankly, if you haven’t read at least a summary of it you are edging towards useless idiot territory. You don’t think it matters that the leader who just lost the key city of Lyman to Ukraine, who is facing calls to use tactical nukes there, and who can act on energy, commodities, and in the ‘grey zone’, just railed against “Anglo-Saxon” global financial hegemony in woke fashion, while simultaneously extoling Russian fascist Ivan Ilyin? After all, Putin just said:

  1. “People cannot be fed with printed dollars and euros. You can’t feed them with those pieces of paper, and the virtual, inflated capitalisation of western social media companies can’t heat their homes… you can’t feed anyone with paper – you need food; and you can’t heat anyone’s home with these inflated capitalisations – you need energy.”
  2. The West ‘benefitted from WW1 and WW2(!)’, and “in order to free itself from the latest web of challenges, they need to dismantle Russia,” or
  3. “They will try to trigger a collapse of the entire system, and blame everything on that, or, God forbid, decide to use the old formula of economic growth through war.” That collapse may now loom – but from trying to correct the problems previously created. The talk of millenarian expectations of a looming war vs. Russia are a real worry.
  4. The battlefield to which destiny and history have called us is a battlefield for our people, for the great historical Russia… We must protect them against enslavement and monstrous experiments that are designed to cripple their minds and souls.” In short, they are in this to the bitter end. It remains to be seen who is with them in that struggle.

If you feel the painful (part) truths about the West above outweigh the Big Lie that Russia is a champion of human dignity and freedom offering a true global alternative, then you are a useful idiot. Sadly, that seems to include good minds on the Left and Right so sick of neoliberalism that they are prepared to swallow anything that isn’t it.

As Russia rails against “paper dollars and euros” and extolls the strength of commodities, can the West slash rates or do endless QE to bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world?

As I put it before, the US choice is hedge funds or hegemony. The latter means higher rates, and things blow up in markets. The former means lower rates, and things blow up physically.

Meanwhile, useful not-idiots are trying to repair some of the damage. ‘The dangerous depletion of US weapons’ again underlines the US and West are not prepared for the kind of global confrontation Russia just flagged. Forget spending 2% or 3-4% of GDP on defence: what about the factories to make the military goods needed on scale?

Relatedly, ‘Senators propose China ‘Grand Strategy’ commission to guide US policy’. It seems the machinery of state is finally swinging behind this geopolitical rivalry, and away from Wall Street and “because markets”.

To conclude, isn’t it amazing that just as a proposed ban on stock trading in Congress moves closer to actualisation, following one at the Fed, that both Congress and the Fed are prepared to take actions ostensibly far healthier for the long-run good of the country, even if they are deleterious for stocks? Or am I an idiot for thinking that?   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

It is no wonder that Denmark is one of the countries behind the blowup of Gazprom one and two.

They benefit from the new pipeline flowing through Denmark Norway and the North sea.

(Ozimek/EpochTimes)

Gas Starts Flowing To Poland Via New Baltic Pipe From Norway

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 – 10:30 AM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Natural gas started flowing to Poland through the new Baltic Pipe pipeline from Norway via the Baltic Sea on the morning of Oct. 1, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said.

“Promises made over six years ago have been kept,” Gaz-System said, according to a translation of its Oct. 1 statement.

Gas started flowing at 6:10 a.m. on Oct. 1 via the Baltic Pipe pipeline, with nominations—or requests for sending gas through the pipeline—totaled 62.4 million kilowatt-hours (kwh), the company added.

“This is a historic moment and one that we’ve been awaiting for many years,” Anna Moskwa, Poland’s minister for climate and the environment, said in a statement.

The pipeline is at the center of Poland’s long-standing strategy to diversify its gas supplies away from Russia.

Construction of the Baltic Pipe system, which has an annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters, resumed in March after a 33-month hiatus over environmental concerns.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February not only forced European countries to rethink their reliance on Russian energy but also added impetus to completing the construction of the Baltic Pipeline linking Poland to Norwegian gas fields.

Construction of the pipeline was completed on Sept. 27, with Polish President Andrzej Duda calling it “one of the most significant days since 1989,” referring to the toppling of communism in the Eastern European country.

“This is a great day. A great day for Poland, for Denmark, Norway, and the entire European Union. It’s a great day for our part of Europe, for building security, peace, and for strengthening our sovereignty,” he said, according to the Office of the President.

Moskwa said in a statement that by diversifying gas supplies, Poland has become “energy secure” and that completion of Baltic Pipe is a symbol of Poland’s “energy sovereignty.”

Russia cut gas supplies to Poland in April when it refused to pay in roubles.

The gas leak in the Baltic Sea from Nord Stream photographed from the Coast Guard’s aircraft on Sept. 27, 2022. (Swedish Coast Guard via AP)

Baltic Pipe was officially inaugurated a day after leaks were detected in the subsea Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe.

Earlier this week, researchers with seismology agencies in Denmark and Sweden found that the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines was most likely caused by explosions and ruled out the possibility of natural causes.

According to data released by a team of seismologists, the blasts occurred in the vicinity of the location of the pipelines. Both Danish and Swedish seismic agencies picked up the alleged explosions on Sept. 26.

end

A must read:

Why it was the USA with help from Poland and Denmark who blew up Nordstream one and two

Pepe Escobar

Escobar: Who Profits From Pipeline Terror?

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

Secret talks between Russia and Germany to resolve their Nord Stream 1 and 2 issues had to be averted at any cost…

The War of Economic Corridors has entered incandescent, uncharted territory: Pipeline Terror.

A sophisticated military operation – that required exhaustive planning, possibly involving several actors – blew up four separate sections of the Nord Stream (NS) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipelines this week in the shallow waters of the Danish straits, in the Baltic Sea, near the island of Bornholm.

Swedish seismologists estimated that the power of the explosions may have reached the equivalent of up to 700 kg of TNT. Both NS and NS2, near the strong currents around Borholm, are placed at the bottom of the sea at a depth of 60 meters.

The pipes are built with steel reinforced concrete, able to withstand impact from aircraft carrier anchors, and are basically indestructible without serious explosive charges. The operation – causing two leaks near Sweden and two near Denmark – would have to be carried out by modified underwater drones.

Every crime implies motive. The Russian government wanted – at least up to the sabotage – to sell oil and natural gas to the EU. The notion that Russian intel would destroy Gazprom pipelines is beyond ludicrous. All they had to do was to turn off the valves. NS2 was not even operational, based on a political decision from Berlin. The gas flow in NS was hampered by western sanctions. Moreover, such an act would imply Moscow losing key strategic leverage over the EU.

Diplomatic sources confirm that Berlin and Moscow were involved in a secret negotiation to solve both the NS and NS2 issues. So they had to be stopped – no holds barred. Geopolitically, the entity that had the motive to halt a deal holds anathema a possible alliance in the horizon between Germany, Russia, and China.

Whodunnit?

The possibility of an “impartial” investigation of such a monumental act of sabotage – coordinated by NATO, no less – is negligible. Fragments of the explosives/underwater drones used for the operation will certainly be found, but the evidence may be tampered with. Atlanticist fingers are already blaming Russia. That leaves us with plausible working hypotheses.

This hypothesis is eminently sound and looks to be based on information from Russian intelligence sources. Of course, Moscow already has a pretty good idea of what happened (satellites and electronic monitoring working 24/7), but they won’t make it public.

The hypothesis focuses on the Polish Navy and Special Forces as the physical perpetrators (quite plausible; the report offers very good internal details), American planning and technical support (extra plausible), and aid by the Danish and Swedish militaries (inevitable, considering this was very close to their territorial waters, even if it took place in international waters).

The hypothesis perfectly ties in with a conversation with a top German intelligence source, who told The Cradle that the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND or German intelligence) was “furious” because “they were not in the loop.” 

Of course not. If the hypothesis is correct, this was a glaringly anti-German operation, carrying the potential of metastasizing into an intra-NATO war.

The much-quoted NATO Article 5 – ‘an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us’ – obviously does not say anything about a NATO-on-NATO attack. After the pipeline punctures, NATO issued a meek statement “believing” what happened was sabotage and will “respond” to any deliberate attack on its critical infrastructure. NS and NS2, incidentally, are not part of NATO’s infrastructure.

The whole operation had to be approved by Americans, and deployed under their Divide and Rule trademark. “Americans” in this case means the Neo-conservatives and Neo-liberals running the government machinery in Washington, behind the senile teleprompter reader.

This is a declaration of war against Germany and against businesses and citizens of the EU – not against the Kafkaesque Eurocrat machine in Brussels. Don’t be mistaken: NATO runs Brussels, not European Commission (EC) head and rabid Russophobe Ursula von der Leyen, who’s just a lowly handmaiden for finance capitalism.

It’s no wonder the Germans are absolutely mum; no one from the German government, so far, has said anything substantial.

The Polish corridor

By now, assorted chattering classes are aware of former Polish Defense Minister and current MEP Radek Sirkorski’s tweet: “Thank you, USA.” But why would puny Poland be on the forefront? There’s atavic Russophobia, a number of very convoluted internal political reasons, but most of all, a concerted plan to attack Germany built on pent up resentment – including new demands for WWII reparations.

The Poles, moreover, are terrified that with Russia’s partial mobilization, and the new phase of the Special Military Operation (SMO) – soon to be transformed into a Counter-Terrorism Operation (CTO) – the Ukrainian battlefield will move westward. Ukrainian electric light and heating will most certainly be smashed. Millions of new refugees in western Ukraine will attempt to cross to Poland.

At the same time there’s a sense of “victory” represented by the partial opening of the Baltic Pipe in northwest Poland – almost simultaneously with the sabotage.

Talk about timing. Baltic Pipe will carry gas from Norway to Poland via Denmark. The maximum capacity is only 10 billion cubic meters, which happens to be ten times less than the volume supplied by NS and NS2. So Baltic Pipe may be enough for Poland, but carries no value for other EU customers.

Meanwhile, the fog of war gets thicker by the minute. It has already been documented that US helicopters were overflying the sabotage nodes only a few days ago; that a UK “research” vessel was loitering in Danish waters since mid-September; that NATO tweeted about the testing of “new unmanned systems at sea” on the same day of the sabotage. Not to mention that Der Spiegel published a startling report headlined “CIA warned German government against attacks on Baltic Sea pipelines,” possibly a clever play for plausible deniability.

The Russian Foreign Ministry was sharp as a razor: “The incident took place in an area controlled by American intelligence.” The White House was forced to “clarify” that President Joe Biden – in a February video that has gone viral – did not promise to destroy NS2; he promised to “not allow” it to work. The US State Department declared that the idea the US was involved is “preposterous.”

It was up to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to offer a good dose of reality: the damage to the pipelines posed a “big problem” for Russia, essentially losing its gas supply routes to Europe. Both NS2 lines had been pumped full of gas and – crucially – were prepared to deliver it to Europe; this is Peskov cryptically admitting negotiations with Germany were ongoing.

Peskov added, “this gas is very expensive and now it is all going up in the air.” He stressed again that neither Russia nor Europe had anything to gain from the sabotage, especially Germany. This Friday, there will be a special UN Security Council session on the sabotage, called by Russia.

The attack of the Straussians

Now for the Big Picture. Pipeline Terror is part of a Straussian offensive, taking the splitting up of Russia and Germany to the ultimate level (as they see it). Leo Strauss and the Conservative Movement in America: A Critical Appraisal, by Paul E. Gottfried (Cambridge University Press, 2011) is required reading to understand this phenomenon.

Leo Strauss, the German-Jewish philosopher who taught at the University of Chicago, is at the root of what later, in a very twisted way, became the Wolfowitz Doctrine, written in 1992 as the Defense Planning Guidance, which defined “America’s mission in the post-Cold War era.”

The Wolfowitz Doctrine goes straight to the point: any potential competitor to US hegemony, especially “advanced industrial nations” such as Germany and Japan, must be smashed. Europe should never exercise sovereignty: “We must be careful to prevent the emergence of a purely European security system that would undermine NATO, and particularly its integrated military command structure.”

Fast-forward to the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, adopted only five months ago. It establishes that Kiev has a free lunch when it comes to all arms control mechanisms. All these expensive weapons are leased by the US to the EU to be sent to Ukraine. The problem is that whatever happens in the battlefield, in the end, it is the EU that will have to pay the bills.

US Secretary of State Blinken and his underling, Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland, are Straussians, now totally unleashed, having taken advantage of the black void in the White House. As it stands, there are at least three different “silos” of power in a fractured Washington. For all Straussians, a tight bipartisan op, uniting several high-profile usual suspects, destroying Germany is paramount.

One serious working hypothesis places them behind the orders to conduct Pipeline Terror. The Pentagon forcefully denied any involvement in the sabotage. There are secret back channels between Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

And dissident Beltway sources swear that the CIA is also not part of this game; Langley’s agenda would be to force the Straussians to back off on Russia reincorporating Novorossiya and allow Poland and Hungary to gobble up whatever they want in Western Ukraine before the entire US government falls into a black void.

Come see me in the Citadel

On the Grand Chessboard, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan two weeks ago dictated the framework of the multipolar world ahead. Couple it with the independence referendums in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye, which Russian President Vladimir Putin will formally incorporate into Russia, possibly as early as Friday.

With the window of opportunity closing fast for a Kiev breakthrough before the first stirrings of a cold winter, and Russia’s partial mobilization soon to enter the revamped SMO and add to generalized western panic, Pipeline Terror at least would carry the “merit” of solidifying a Straussian tactical victory: Germany and Russia fatally separated.

Yet blowback will be inevitable – in unexpected ways – even as Europe becomes increasingly Ukrainized and even Polandized: an intrinsically neo-fascist, unabashed puppet of the US as predator, not partner. Vey few across the EU are not brainwashed enough to understand how Europe is being set up for the ultimate fall.

The war, by those Straussians ensconced in the Deep State – neocons and neoliberals alike – won’t relent. It is a war against Russia, China, Germany and assorted Eurasian powers. Germany has just been felled. China is currently observing, carefully. And Russia – nuclear and hypersonic – won’t be bullied.

Poetry grandmaster C.P. Cavafy, in Waiting for the Barbarians, wrote “And now what will become of us, without any barbarians? Those people were some kind of a solution.” The barbarians are not at the gates, not anymore. They are inside their golden Citadel.

end

Former Pentagon Advisor Says US Likely Attacked Nord Stream Pipelines To Isolate Germany

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A former Pentagon advisor says the most likely culprits behind the Nord Stream pipeline blasts are the United States and Britain, and that the attack was carried out to prevent Germany from bailing on the war in Ukraine.

Retired US Army colonel Douglas Macgregor made the comments during an appearance on the Judging Freedom podcast.

Macgregor said a process of elimination rules out Germany, because they are dependent on Nord Stream for their energy security, while it also served no benefit for Russia to have sabotaged its own infrastructure.

“Would the Russians destroy their own pipeline? 40 percent of Russian gross national product or gross domestic product consists of foreign currency that comes into the country to purchase natural gas, oil, coal and so forth. So the Russians did not do this. The notion that they did I think is absurd,” Macgregor said.

Referring to Polish MEP Radoslaw Sikorski’s infamous deleted tweet in which he wrote, “Thank you, USA,” Macgregor noted, “Who else might be involved? Well the Poles apparently seem to be very enthusiastic about it.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1576643356267978752&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fformer-pentagon-advisor-says-us-likely-attacked-nord-stream-pipelines-isolate-germany&sessionId=ecb139bb2556ef9589e08f7d30d0419ba3068ba0&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

However, citing reports that more than 500 kg of TNT had been detected in both explosions, the former Pentagon advisor suggested only the United States and British Royal Navy had the capability to pull off the attack.

“Then you have to look at who are the state actors that have the capability to do this. And that means the Royal Navy, the United States Navy Special Operations,” said Macgregor.

“I think that’s pretty clear. We know that thousands of pounds of TNT were used because these pipelines are enormously robust. You have several inches of concrete around various metal alloys to move the natural gas. So it’s not something that you could simply drop a grenade down at the end of a fish line and disrupt. That means it takes a certain amount of sophistication,” he added.

Macgregor suggested that the motive behind the attacks was to prevent Germany from bailing on the Ukraine war after Berlin began “to give the impression that they were no longer going to go along with this proxy war in Ukraine.”

“I’m hesitant to say ‘we know it must have been Washington’. I can’t say that because we just don’t know. But it’s very clear that we have foreclosed Berlin’s options. Berlin was drifting away from this alliance. [Chancellor] Olaf Scholz said ‘I’m not sending any more equipment, I won’t send any tanks’. Now he’s in a bind because the United States has simply robbed him of the option of bailing out. Who’s going to supply him gas and oil and coal and everything else if he bails out? Where does he turn now? And remember, the Germans, who are facing terrible consequences at home refuse to restart nuclear power plants,” the former official said.

As we previously reported, the CIA warned Germany of potential attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea weeks before Nord Stream 1 and 2 were targeted.

Both Joe Biden and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland asserted that Nord Stream 2 wouldn’t be allowed to operate if Russia attacked Ukraine.

END

A good read

special thanks to John Little for sending this report ot us;

Professor Sachs on Bloomberg is Telling the Truth, US sabotage of Nord Stream pipeline

3:47 PM (1 hour ago)

Spartacus was a gladiator that led an army of enslaved people.

Rome was very stratified. There were various levels of citizenship and wealthy people had significant advantages over everyone else. Just like today where members of

The US Congress won’t face prison for insider trading (after hearing classified intelligence briefings and buying “war stocks”) 

The ruling class held over 98% of the wealth, and all along the sociological spectrum, there

were profound delineations indicating differential access to wealth, power, and prestige. 

Like all societies, the main work was performed by cheap labor and enslaved people. But there was hope.

Spartacus was a military commander leading the slave revolt representing an opportunity to defeat the ruling class.

The crucifixion of Spartacus’ army

In 73 BC, a slave revolt (known as the Third Servile War) under the ex-gladiator Spartacus began against the Romans. Slavery accounted for roughly every third person in Italy.

Spartacus defeated many Roman armies in a conflict over two years. However, while trying to escape from Italy, Spartacus unknowingly moved his forces into the historic trap at Calabria.

The Romans were well acquainted with the region. Legions were brought home from abroad, and Spartacus was pinned between armies. Finally, the ex-slave army was defeated at the Siler River by Marcus Crassus.

The Romans judged that the enslaved people had forfeited their right to live and were sentenced to death by crucifixion. 

In 71 BC, 6,000 enslaved people were crucified along the 200-kilometer (120 mi) Via Appia from Rome to Capua. 

This mass execution served two distinct functions.

1/ It was punishment for the slave revolt

2/ More importantly, it served to warn everyone what would happen if you challenged the ruling class.

 Imagine the horror of hearing the cries of agony from tortured slaves hanging on wooden crosses over a 120-mile stretch of road. This road was the main road with the most visibility. This

act by the Roman state delivered a dire statement; stepping out of line would be met severely and swiftly. The ultimate deterrent. 

Segue, 

Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Economics Professor, today laid out his simple case as to why US was the guilty party in sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline. 

He was yanked off the air while appearing as a guest expert on Bloomberg TV.

What evidence led Professor Sachs to state that US was to blame? 
Enough for a tenured professor to risk his reputation on Bloomberg TV

-Why would Russia do it? all they have to do is turn off a valve.

-There is radar footage of US equipment and helicopters near the incident.

-US had threatened months ago that they had this desire and ability.

-Sec of State Blinken bizarre comment that the “Nord Stream disaster is an opportunity for EU to ween itself from Russian gas.”

Professor Sachs is not alone in this belief. Most geo-political analysts have come to the very same conclusion. Nevertheless, Professor Sachs is very brave to express his views. 

On the downside, it is hoped he will not be “visited” by the Deep State enforcers. 

On the bright side, at least he won’t be crucified along the highway connecting Silver Springs Maryland, and Washington DC


To your decimated Freedom and Liberty

Jon Forrest Little

——
PUBLISHED THIS WEEK BY MONEY METALS
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/09/28/unsound-money-is-to-blame-002601

A MUST READ

(IRINA SLAV/OILPRICE.COM)

Europe’s Winter Energy Preparations: Too Little Too Late?

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 10:36 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • The EU has managed to fill its gas storage ahead of the deadline, and above target levels.
  • The Financial Times: some European Union members actually think the measures proposed so far do not go far enough to tackle the crisis.
  • EU countries are walking a fine line between rising inflation and energy bills and rising debt.

Windfall taxes, power rationing, and price caps on imported gas: these are the main ideas the European Union has produced as it struggles to contain an energy shortage that has spiraled out of all reasonable proportions. The block has managed to fill its gas storage ahead of the deadline and above target levels, and this is perhaps the only piece of good news this year. The EU has also managed—voluntarily and not so voluntarily—to reduce its gas imports from Russia from 41 percent to 9 percent.

It has paid a steep price for that, however, and is still paying it: costly LNG imports make for more expensive gas-fired electricity generation and less competitive products of processes involving natural gas. With energy inflation still running wild, the question now is whether the EU has done enough to survive the winter without too much pain. 

“Europe’s energy crisis is only now really starting to hit home, because increases in wholesale prices are still feeding through into firms’ and households’ bills,” Simone Tagliapietra, an energy specialist at Belgian think-tank Bruegel, as quoted by the FT this week.

“The cost for the economy will get way bigger.”

European governments are frantically searching for ways to reduce this pain before it really hits, including French president Emmanuel Macron advising French businesses not to sign new power supply contracts with “crazy prices.” He argued that the government would succeed in defeating energy inflation. French businesses seem skeptical.

Meanwhile, the FT reports that some European Union members actually think the measures proposed so far do not go far enough to tackle the crisis. Yet their calls for more action heighten the risk of social unrest, which is the last thing European governments would want on their hands in a winter of increasingly unavoidable recession.

“There are definitely people around the table who think this is not enough and more needs to be done,” the FT quoted an unnamed EU diplomat as saying.

“We have no interest in energy prices causing instability in member states — it would be a recipe for disaster.”

Apparently, the main idea of those calling for more to be done is imposing a price cap on all gas imports into EU—an idea that the Commission has warned against, saying it posed a “risk of triggering supply disruptions.” In other words, gas sellers might well refuse to sell at a capped price.

While politicians rack their brains for solutions, there are already protests. Tens of thousands of Czechs are protesting again, focusing on their government’s foreign policy, which the protesters are blaming for exorbitant energy bills.

Germans were also protesting earlier this month, and although those protests are a fraction of what’s happening in the Czech Republic, they do suggest governments need to be extremely careful with the measures they implement to deal with the crisis.

France has avoided any major protests so far by pouring billions into energy price caps for households and businesses. It plans to offset some of this expenditure with the windfall tax on energy producers. But even Paris’s pockets are not bottomless, and few expect the crisis to be over before winter 2023.

In fact, a recession for Europe is already all but certain. The president of the World Bank, David Malpass, said in a speech this month that the likelihood of stagflation in Europe was increasing and so was the risk of a recession.

Malpass noted the combination of high interest rates, high inflation, and slowing growth as the components of a perfect storm engulfing the continent and most of the world.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, said this month that recession is virtually a certainty for the European Union because of the absence of a clear plan on how to deal with the supply crunch that has hit European countries.

Business surveys from early September suggested the eurozone, for one, was almost certain to slip into a recession, Reuters reported at the time, noting record-high zone inflation of 9.1 percent for August and a grim outlook for economic activity.

So, Europe is entering a perfect storm of inflation, rising interest rates, energy shortage, and a lack of many realistic options for tackling the storm. It’s quite a plateful, and Europe is clearly struggling to handle it. But while the immediate problem is this winter and surviving it without governments getting overthrown, the bigger problem is that there is no end of the crunch in near sight.

Most expert commentators appear to be in agreement that the crisis will last a few years, with market data supporting this. Rystad Energy, for example, recently forecasted a gas supply gap in Europe for the three years between 2023 and 2025 because of Europe’s ambition to fully replace Russian gas supplies with LNG.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., gas producers are struggling to respond to the level of demand for their product while getting pressured by inflation. What’s more, record LNG exports are pushing up local prices, and this is not making Americans happy. And the best the EU can do is suggest capping the price that European buyers pay for U.S. LNG.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97560 DOWN   0.0031 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 144.35   UP  0.374 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1206 UP   0.0071

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 278.58  PTS OR 1.07%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.21%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 143.32 PTS OR 0.83% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.33% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 278.58 PTS OR 1.07%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1665.30

silver:$19.41

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 112.36 UP 28  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.17% DOWN 10  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.239% DOWN  AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.28%//  DOWN 10 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.51  DOWN 14   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.106% DOWN 8 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9793 DOWN  .0036   or 36 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.68 UP 0.271 OR YEN DOWN 27 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1142 DOWN .0029 OR  29 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0054 OR 79 BASIS pts  to 1.3728

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 7.1160 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.1290

TURKISH LIRA:  18.53  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.239

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.738% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.715  UP 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.10 DOWN 0.10 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 18.92 PTS OR  0.27%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 132,81 POINTS OR 1.11%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 82.94 PTS OR 1.46% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 76.50OR  1.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 294.25PTS OR  1.45%

WTI Oil price 80.22  12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.40   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  58.42 DOWN 1  AND 21/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.106

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98225 UP .0036     OR  36 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.13164 UP  .01794 or  179 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.67 UP ,084//YEN DOWN 8 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3628 DOWN 0.01774  (CDN dollar, UP 177 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 83.39

Brent OIL:  88.70

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 15 BASIS pts to 3.658%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 3.707%

USA dollar index:111.57 DOWN 0.52 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.54

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  58.86  DOWN 0 AND   41/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 764.52 PTS OR 2.66 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 258.43 PTS OR 3.76%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.16 DOWN 1.46 PTS (10.00)%

GLD: $158.43 UP 3.76 OR 0.01%

SLV/ $19.10  UP 1.60 CENTS OR 0.75%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Pivot Dreams Spark Panic Bid As Lehman-Suisse Forgotten

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 04:01 PM

A weekend full of reports suggesting a Powell Pivot is close – but admittedly most suggesting considerable more downside pain is needed to force that through – combined with a weak PMI print (including a deflationary price impulse) prompted dovish shifts in market expectations for The Fed:

Rate-cut expectations for Q1 2023 are back

Source: Bloomberg

And Terminal Rate expectations are falling fast (down 45bps from last week’s highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

FedSpeak today offered absolutely no signs of a shift in tone from Barkin or Williams:

“Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures, but our job is not yet done,” Williams said Monday in remarks prepared for a speech in Phoenix.

“It will take time, but I am fully confident we will return to a sustained period of price stability.”

“What if we are in a new era — one in which we face inflationary headwinds?” Barkin said in his prepared remarks.

“History may be less of a precedent for appropriate policy.

“As a result, our efforts to stabilize inflation expectations could require periods where we tighten monetary policy more than has been our recent pattern,” Barkin said.

“You might think of this as leaning against the wind.”

The UN begged The Fed to stop pushing the global economy into recession (meddling?) as one could be forgiven for thinking politicians are starting to feel the pain:

“There’s still time to step back from the edge of recession,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said.

“We have the tools to calm inflation and support all vulnerable groups. But the current course of action is hurting the most vulnerable, especially in developing countries and risks tipping the world into a global recession.”

But, the ‘pivot’ trade spread like syphilis through European porn stars to every asset class with the dollar down while stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, and crypto all bid.

However, before we get on to that excitement, Credit Suisse stole all the headlines from a systemic risk perspective and while CS stock price bounced back from an ugly pre-open, its CDS kept pushing to new record wides intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

No obvious knock on effect in other market stress signals (FRA/OIS did not worsen today) as everything else was bid and shurugged off CS credit risk.

Futures were lower overnight but lifted into the open and then exploded higher as cash started trading…

This was close to the S&P’s best since the peak of the COVID crash rebound.

Was a rally ever in doubt…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1575879107912486916&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fpivot-dreams-spark-panic-bid-lehman-suisse-forgotten&sessionId=2168c2963f4e5269a4b0864298606e63aa849039&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

This was not a classic ‘short squeeze’ (yet)…

Source: Bloomberg

As all of last week’s Put delta was vaporized today…

Source: Bloomberg

And there was one big loser today in equity-land (TSLA), as it missed expectations for deliveries…

Exxon’s big surge today took its market back above that of Meta…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were also aggressively bid with yields in the belly of the curve dropping over 30bps at the trough today. The long-end underperformed but it was still a huge day for bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar lost some ground today, hitting a 7 day low…

Source: Bloomberg

The Brazilian Real surged after Bolsanaro’s better than expected performance over the weekend…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable also rallied, erasing all of last week’s chaotic losses, after Truss folded on her tax cut for the rich…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied on the day, testing back above $19500…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver soared almost 9% today…

Gold gained over 2%, with futures back above $1700…

Silver drastically outperformed Gold, sending the ratio of the two back to 5-month lows (from 95x at the end of August to 82x today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil soared today as dovish hopes combined with chatter that OPEC+ will slash production dramatically this week. WTI surged back above $80…

Finally, if you’re buying this dip in stocks, seasonals are in your favor…

Payrolls on Friday… do you feel lucky, punk?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

Bad news is good news:  anticipation of a Fed pivot

Stocks, Bonds, & Silver Are Soaring

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 10:20 AM

Anticipation of an imminent pivot again? Extreme positioning squeeze? ‘Bad’ news is good news? Who knows!

Stocks are surging…

Bond yields are plunging with the belly down over 20bps…

Market expectations for The Fed’s terminal rate are dovishly dumping…

And silver is soaring, back above $20 and its biggest daily jump since Feb 2021…

As the gold/silver ratio collapses…

Gold is also gaining though, back near $1700…

Never mind Credit Suisse threatens global financial stability and the Bank of England could only sell £22 million (yes million) of gilts today.

AFTERNOON TRADING

ii) USA DATA/

USA manufacturing ISM falters in Sept

(zerohedge)

ISM Manufacturing Unexpectedly Slides In September; New Orders, Jobs Shrink

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 10:08 AM

Expectations were mixed ahead of this morning’s Manufacturing sector survey data (ISM expected lower, PMI expected higher), but both were only marginal shifts at best amid rising macro surprise data.

  • S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.5 in August to 52.0 for the final September print (above the flash print of 51.8)
  • ISM’s Manufacturing survey headline fell from 52.8 in August to 50.9 in September (well below expectations of 52.0)

Source: Bloomberg

PMI data showed new orders rising for the first time in four months, but new export orders fell further as challenging economic conditions and a strong US dollar weighed on foreign customer demand.

More problematically, the pace of charge inflation ticked up from August as firms sought to pass through higher cost burdens to clients.

Under the ISM hood, things were very different with new orders, employment, and prices all falling in September

Source: Bloomberg

Worse still, the ISM data showed New Orders relative to inventories tumbling once again

Source: Bloomberg

Worse-est-er even – This was also the biggest drop in ISM employment since the COVID lockdown collapse (second biggest monthly drop in the last decade)…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“With US manufacturers reporting a return to growth of order books for the first time in four months, as well as improved job gains, the September survey brings welcome news that business conditions are starting to improve again. However, even with the latest improvement, the weakness of the data in recent months still point to manufacturing acting as a drag on the economy in the third quarter, and demand will need to revive further if any meaningful positive contribution to GDP is going to be seen in the rest of the year.

“The brightest signs of life are coming from the domestic market, with producers of both consumer goods and, most notably, business equipment reporting improved sales to the home market. Manufacturers across the board are, however, reporting further export losses, linked to weaker economic growth abroad and the dollar’s strength.

“While the strong dollar is curbing exports, a beneficial effect from the greenback’s strength is being seen via lower import costs. With supply chain delays also easing substantially again in September and shipping costs falling, upwards pressure on firms’ costs has moderated sharply, which will feed through to lower goods prices to consumers.”

So once again, take your pick – PMI ‘good’, ISM ‘bad’ – and is it bad enough to prompt an ‘easier’ Fed?

end

Home Prices Crash At Fastest Pace Since Lehman Bankruptcy

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 – 02:45 PM

The housing market is finally getting unglued: less than a week after Case Shiller (which reports home prices with a substantiakl laga) reported the first negative monthly change in home prices…

… today Black Knight confirmed that the US housing market has turned decidedly ugly with the two biggest monthly declines since the global financial crisis.

According to a Monday report from mortgage-data provider, median home prices fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier, following a 1.05% drop in July.

The two periods marked the largest monthly declines since January 2009. In fact, at the current pace of declines, we may soon see a record drop in home prices, surpassing the largest historical slide hit during the global financial crisis.

The report noted that July and August 2022 mark the largest single-month price declines seen since January 2009 and rank among the eight largest on record.

“The Black Knight HPI for August marked the second consecutive month that prices pulled back at the national level, with the median home price now 2% off of its June peak,” said Graboske. “Only marginally better than July’s revised 1.05% monthly decline, home prices were down an additional 0.98% in August. Either one of them would have been the largest single-month price decline since January 2009 – together they represent two straight months of significant pullbacks after more than two years of record-breaking growth. The only months with materially higher single-month price declines than we’ve seen in July and August were in the winter of 2008, following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent financial crisis.

The report also noted that the monthly rate of home price decline is now rivaling that seen during the Great Recession – the question is how long it will continue to do so, and how far off peaks prices will fall.

Separately, the August report also found that after rising sharply from May through July, for-sale inventory levels stalled in August, growing at just 1/10th the rate of recent months, as sellers appeared to take a step back from the market, perhaps waiting for mortgage rates to plunge as the recession arrives. 

The national inventory deficit held relatively steady at -44%, with the market remaining more than 600K listings short as compared to pre-pandemic levels. For its part, Black Knight suggests that sellers are likely being deterred by both falling demand and prices, along with a growing disincentive to give up historically low interest rate mortgages in a sharply rising rate environment.

That said, and as is the case with Case Shiller, while prices are falling on a month-over-month basis, they’re still significantly higher than a year earlier when the buying frenzy was just getting started: In August, home prices were 12.1% compared to a year ago, if sharply lower from the 20% Y/Y change hit earlier this summer.

The sharpest correction in August was in San Jose, California, down 13% from its 2022 peak, followed by San Francisco at almost 11% and Seattle at 9.9%, the company said.

Yet as home prices tumble, there are no surprises in the list of most affordable housing markets, where the usual suspects – those cities where a walk down a street almost guaranteed a gunshot wound – dominate: St Louis, Detroit and Kansas City.

Alternatively, while prices may have dropped, the three most unaffordable MSAs remain on the west coast: Sacramento, Seattle and Riverside.

Full Black Knight report below (pdf link):

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

A MUST READ..

(ZEROHEDGE)

The huge rise in yields on the 10 USA bond is causing the Fed voters to split on their rate hikes as the Fed is losing control of the yield curve

(zerohedge)

Fed “Begins To Split” On Rate Hikes As “Chaotic Market Breakdown” Looms

SATURDAY, OCT 01, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Back in early 2018, around the time the Fed was confident it could hike its way to around 4% without an accident, and with balance sheet QT on “autopilot”, we first warned that every fed tightening cycle leads to a crisis.

A few months later, in late December, this was confirmed when the Fed panicked and ended its tightening cycle very prematurely. Shortly after it started restarted (NOT) QE, which was then followed by the liquidity supernova that was the covid global lockdowns, and everyone knows the rest.

So fast forward to the start of 2022, when just as the Fed was setting off on its latest tightening campaign, we again reminded readers that “every Fed tightening cycle ends in disaster and then, much more Fed easing.”

While this warning was (again) ignored for far too long, with global central banks hiking rates no less than 294 times since Aug 2021 (vs 1302 rate cuts since Lehman), last week the Bank of England confirmed that this time won’t be different when it quickly ended its QT and restarted QE (“temporarily” of course) to avoid a brutal collapse of the US pension system (which for some bizarre reason, had been allowed to use margin to hedge duration exposure). And while so far the Fed has shown it is confident it is immune to the crushing consequences of the biggest ever tightening cycle and reversal in global liquidity…

… recent events are starting to make some high-profile financial luminaries nervous, starting with Mohamed El-Erian, who openly agreed with us on Friday saying that an “economic accident” would precede any central bank pivot…

… an “accident” which Bank of America’s credit strategists warned could be imminent when they said that “credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management“, and unless the Fed slows down its hiking pace, it is about to break the all-important corporate bond market, to wit:

With credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management. This means slower pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented, but still working its way through the financial system’s plumbing. Failure to do so raises the risk of credit market dysfunction, which, if occurred, would be difficult to contain and fix.

Or maybe we are wrong and the Fed is finally becoming aware that it its actions are about to break the economy and market again. That’s what Charlie Gasparino reported yesterady when he tweeted that, according to several big investors, “federal reserve officials getting increasingly worried about “financial stability” as opposed to inflation as higher rates begin to crush bonds.” Gasparino continued that the Fed was growing “worried about possible “Lehman Moment” with a 4% FF rate as Bonds and derivatives tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause.

While that may sound like a lot of wishful thinking by the “big investors” it is becoming increasingly clear that Bank of America’s warning is certainly starting to resonate with Fed officials. As a reminder, the BofA team warned that to avoid “credit market dysfunction”, the Fed should slower “the pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented.”

It now appears that they are doing just that, because according to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve officials “are starting to stake out different views on how fast to raise interest rates as they balance hot inflation against rising stress in financial markets.” Translation: here come the cold feet.

As Bloomberg elaborates, “with Fed target range now at 3% to 3.25% and only a few moves from reaching their forecast peak, officials are starting to speak differently about the urgency with which they need to get there. Hawks like Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester say they must keep raising rates aggressively to win the battle against inflation even if that causes a recession.” However, Vice Chair Lael Brainard has offered a slightly softer assessment while continuing to stress the need to tighten policy. Brainard’s speech Friday — the first from Fed board leadership since officials met last week — said policy will need be restrictive for some time and avoid the risk of prematurely pulling back.

But unlike her hawkish colleagues, “she injected a note of caution about how fast they need to go, while discussing a number of ways in which the global rate-hiking cycle could spill over on the US economy.” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly also highlighted the cost of doing too much — as well as too little — to cool prices.

As Bloomberg notes, their comments injected a slight variation into what has been a uniformed stream of insistence from regional Fed presidents declaring unflinching resolve to crush inflation.

To be sure, the costs to the economy have already been telegraphed in the form of falling asset prices with the S&P 500 plunging 9.3% in September – the worst September since 2008 – as markets have now lost over $10 trillion from the all time high.

But it’s the elusive economic collapse that is seen as the greenlight for any Fed pivot – just two days ago Loretta Mester went so far to say that not even a recession would stop the Fed from hiking further…

  • *MESTER SAYS RECESSION WON’T STOP FED FROM RAISING RATES

… a view which seems dangerously naive and ignores the political fallout (for the Democratic party) that millions of lost jobs will lead to. Furthermore, while bond and stock values have cratered, for now the financial system – at least in the US – seems to be working just fine.

But if the BofA strategy team is correct, that’s about to end with a bang. Indeed, even Bloomberg brings attention to what we reported last night, saying that “Bank of America Corp. says credit stress is at a “borderline critical level” beyond which dysfunction begins. That’s something the Fed wants to avoid because market breakdowns are difficult to control and can accelerate downturns.”

In any case, the growing divisions among officials showed up in their forecasts released Sept. 21 that showed 8 officials estimating they would finish the year with rates in a 4% to 4.25% range while nine were a quarter point higher. Their 2024 forecast was even more bizarre and clueless.

Another novel narrative to emerge in Brainard’s speech, was her warning that it will take time for the full extent of tightening to bite down broadly across the economy, another way of arguing for some patience starting now.

“Uncertainty is currently high, and there are a range of estimates around the appropriate destination of the target range for the cycle,” she told a conference hosted at the New York Fed on financial stability. “Proceeding deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening.”

That contrasts sharply with Fed hawks. In fact, Mester has argued aggressively against down-shifting into more deliberative policy, as officials have done in past tightening cycles when high uncertainty lead the central bank to inch rates up a quarter-point at a time. At a time when inflation is too high, and the direction of inflation expectations is hard forecast, overshooting is better than undershooting, Mester said:

“Some results in the literature suggest that when policymakers confront more uncertainty either in their data or in their models, they should be more cautious in acting, that is, be more inertial in their responses,” she said in a Sept. 26 speech. “Subsequent research has shown that this is not generally true.”

“It can be better for policymakers to act more aggressively because aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcomes from actually coming about,” she added.

Ironically, just as she read those words, the Bank of England capitulated and pivoted back to QE.

Yet while a fissure is finally emerging within the FOMC over how fast to hike to peak rates, so far not a single official is talking about easing rapidly once they get there. Labor markets are strong with forecasters estimating another 250,000 jobs added in September, while the latest inflation report was discouraging. But expect all that to change and soon, because as Bloomberg summarizes, “What ultimately determines the pace might be just whether markets remain orderly or not.

This matters because while the Fed’s favorite economic indicators are backward looking and lag anywhere between 6 and 9 months, the market still anticipated key turning points and traders accordingly.

“They have made the decision they are going to tighten more rather than less, which guarantees they will over-tighten. How are we going to see it? You are going to see it in financial conditions,” said former Fed staffer, Julia Coronado, founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives.

“I don’t think they really understand” the risk of chaotic market breakdowns, she added. “When you say we are hellbent on being the fastest car on the road, that encourages a lot of positioning that is one way.”

And speaking of chaotic market breakdowns, it is not just the credit market that is on the edge: according to another former NY Fed staffer, and current rates strategist at Bank of America, Mark Cabana who on Friday wrote a must read note (available to pro subscribers), in which he warned that Treasury “market functioning breakdown is a growing risk & may see long-end duration sell-off + curve bear steepen. The Fed is unlikely to tolerate a UST market functioning breakdown for long; if the UST market doesn’t work, broader markets likely don’t work.

Here, one look at the record low liquidity…

… and exploding volatility in the Treasury market which was already blown above the 2020 covid crash and is on the verge of surpassing Lehman levels…

… suggests that the Fed has already lost control of the Treasury market which is no longer functioning properly. How long until the Fed admits this, and how much additional pain it will tolerate before it capitulates, is a different question.

end

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report October 3, 2022 Issue 6856Independent View of the News
  The Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it would increase the amount of bonds that it would monetize in Q4 to ¥550B of 5 to 10-year notes from the previously announced ¥500B, ¥250B of 10-20 years from ¥125B, and ¥100B of more than 25-year from ¥50B.
 
Eurozone September CPI surged 10.0% y/y and 1.2% m/m; 9.7% y/y and 0.9% were consensus.  Core CPI is 4.8% y/y, 4.7% expected, 4.3% prior (August)
 
@Schuldensuehner: Good Morning from Germany, where supermarket prices are rising much faster than in other Eurozone countries. Food CPI jumped 19% YoY in Sep, the highest food price inflation since the start of the statistic.   https://t.co/jAmC7AL2s1
 
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauges were stronger than expected in August.  The PCE Deflator increased 0.3% m/m and 6.2% y/y; 0.1% and 6% respectively were expected.  The PCE Core Deflator jumped 0.6% m/m and 4.9% y/y; 0.5% and 4.7% respectively were consensus.
 
ESZs traded higher during early Asian trading but turned negative during the Nikkei’s 2nd Session.  There was a modest rally during the final 30 minutes of Nikkei trading to boost Q3 performance.  The rally intensified before and after Europe opened.  The rally peaked two minutes before EZ CPI was released.
 
ESZs jumped 17 handles in one minute at 8:26 ET, just 4 minutes before the US PCE data was released.  Traders anticipated good news.  Alas, September PCE was worse than expected, ESZs sank 37 handles in one minute.  ESZs sank until 8 minutes after the NYSE open.  The usual suspects then poured into ESZs and stocks to game woeful September performance.  Traders drove ESZs to 3684.00 at 11:09 ET.  Then, European traders headed for the exits.  ESZs and stocks slid until 12:22 ET; ESZ lost 41 handles.
 
After a modest Noon Balloon, ESZs and stocks sank anew.  Putin, via his Ukraine annexation speech, probably contributed to the equity decline on Friday.
 
Putin Says Annexation Is Forever, Defends Ukraine Land Grab
He demanded Ukraine stop fighting and begin talks but refused to negotiate about the territories he’s absorbing. “We will use all means available to us to defend our lands,” he said. The United Nations has denounced the annexation as illegal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy condemned it, vowing to press ahead with his counteroffensive. Dialog “is impossible with this Russian president,” he said…
    The Russian leader devoted much of the 37-minute address to reiterating his denunciations of the US and its allies for allegedly trying to turn Russia into a “colony. ” Lashing out at what he described as the “pure satanism” of Western liberal valueshe said Russia has its own views on the issues of gender and family… https://www.yahoo.com/now/putin-formalize-annexation-occupied-ukraine-092748416.html
 
Putin says U.S. created nuclear PRECEDENT by bombing Japan and vows to ‘smash’ the ‘satanic’ West: Rants that America is STILL occupying Germany, ‘Anglo-Saxons’ blew up Nord Stream and warns he’ll use ‘all forces’ to defend annexed Ukraine regions
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11266907/Putin-United-States-created-nuclear-precedent-bombing-Japan.html
 
Putin declares holy war on Western ‘Satanism’
“They [the West] are moving toward open Satanism,” he said in a speech broadcast to millions online. Western elites were teaching “sexual deviation” to children who changed their gender, he said. “We’re fighting for historical Russia, to protect our children and grandchildren from this experiment to change their souls,” he added… https://euobserver.com/world/156188
 
Biden said Americans will not be intimidated by Putin and warned Putin that there will be a severe cost to the annexation of Ukrainian lands.  Other western leaders condemned Putin and the annexation.
 
Biden on Friday: “America is fully prepared, with our NATO allies, to defend every single inch of NATO territory.  So, Mr. Putin, don’t misunderstand what I’m saying.
 
Biden warns Russia that the US will ‘defend every inch of NATO territory’ and says he is moving US troops into the Baltics   Feb 22, 2022
https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-troops-to-baltics-defend-every-inch-of-nato-territory-2022-2
 
On Friday, some Street bulls, notably JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, joined the bearish camp due to the possibility that the Ukraine-Russia War will escalate into something worse.
https://www.stl.news/jpmorgans-kolanovic-increasingly-worried-about-central-bank-policy-errors/546897/
 
Russian bombers capable of carrying nukes detected near Finland – The Jerusalem Post
Israeli intelligence firm ImageSat International (ISI) has detected an “irregular presence” of Russian TU-160 and TU-95 strategic bombers deployed to the Olenya Airbase near Finland.  According to satellite images taken by the firm, four TU-160s were detected on August 21rst and three TU-95s were detected on September 25th. There were no strategic bombers present at the airbase on August 12th…
https://m.jpost.com/international/article-718618
 
ESZs hit a daily low of 3613.50 at 15:28 ET.  It was time for the final Q3 performance gaming attempt.  ESZs jumped 19 handles in 3 minutes.  They quickly rescinded most of the rally.  ESZs sank to a new low of 3595.25 at the NYSE close.
 
Other US Economic Data Released on FridayUS August Personal Income: 0.3% m/m as expected; Spending 0.4%, 0.2% expected.Sept Chicago PMI 45.7, 51.8 expected, 52.2 in AugustSept UM Sentiment 58.6, 59.5 expected and prior; Current Conditions 59.7, 58.9 expected and prior, Expectations 58, 59.9 consensus and prior 
USZs traded negatively during Asian trading, hitting a low of 126 13/32 near the Nikkei’s opening.  After China closed at 2 ET, USZs commenced a rally that persisted until 6:28 ET (128 1/32).  USZs vacillated wildly before and after the US PCE release.  They eventually broke down during the latter part of the first hour of NYSE trading.  USZs hit a daily low of 126 1/32 (-1 1/32) at 15:26 ET.
 
@RobinBrooksIIF: The UK bond market blow-up is far from over. The Bloomberg liquidity index – which measures deviations from a hypothetical “smooth” yield curve – the UK (orange) has now risen to levels approaching Italy (black). Major yield curve dislocations – on par with Italy – remain… https://t.co/uJ2Il7QUzO
 
The pound rallied after Europe opened.  It sank when UK PM Truss averred that the UK would proceed with its fiscal stimulus.  After hitting a low near 8 ET, the pound soared on a report that Truss and FM Kwarteng met with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) chief to mollify the financial markets.
 
UK PM Truss meets fiscal watchdog in attempt to calm fears – 8:43 ET
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/uk-news/uk-pm-liz-truss-meets-fiscal-watchdog-in-attempt-to-calm-fears-articleshow.html
 
(S&P 500 Index -9.34% for September is the worst monthly decline since March 2020.)
 
@IAPolls2022: The S&P 500 is down 24.8% in the first 188 trading days of 2022 — 4th WORST start to a year in history.  Nasdaq is down 32.4% in the first 188 trading days of 2022 — THE WORST start to a year in history.
 
@unusual_whales: This is the first time stocks and bonds have fallen in tandem for three consecutive quarters since 1976, according to Strategas Research.
 
BlackRock Moved to Unwind Trades at the Center of Gilt Selloff
BlackRock said it would reduce or cut leveraged exposure in so-called liability-driven investment, or LDI, funds and move assets to cash rather than ask for additional collateral to meet margin calls, according to a memo the US asset manager sent customers Wednesday morning… (Is there more to the story?)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/blackrock-moved-to-unwind-trades-at-the-center-of-gilt-selloff
 
Gross Domestic Income revised downward, undermining WH recession claims
The average of GDP and gross domestic income in the second quarter was revised downward from 0.4% growth to -0.3% after the GDI was revised downward from 1.4% to 0.1%… The average of the GDP and GDI, known as Gross Domestic Output, in the first quarter was also revised into negative territory… https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/gross-domestic-income-growth-revised-downward-undermining-wh-recession-claims-heritage
 
On Thursday night, Nike reported EPS of .93 (.92 exp) and revenue of $12.69B ($12.31B exp).  However, it announced inventories of $9.7B as of August 31.  Nike plunged as much as 13.45%.
 
Inflation has yet to peak, CFOs say, and recession is already here or soon to hit
The CNBC CFO Council Survey is a sample of views… including responses from 21 CFOs… A majority of CFOs (57%) said that they do not think inflation has peaked (48%) of CFOs polled said they expect a recession in the first half of 2023, down from the previous quarter’s survey when 68% cited the first two quarters of next year as the most likely start of a recession, as more CFOs move recession expectations closer in time. Nineteen percent of CFOs now say they expect a recession in the fourth quarter of this year, up from 13% in Q2… another 19% of the CFOs said that the U.S. economy is in a recession now…  https://t.co/7QRArSuNr0
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Q3 performance gaming in over-owned Fangs kept equities from larger losses
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks got hammered and bonds sank, again
Russia, Russia, Russia is becoming a market factor
There is something very dangerous lurking in the global financial system
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Who else is in trouble?  How many are in trouble?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3614.01
Previous session High/Low3671.44; 3584.13
 
‘Just Kidding’: Biden Yanks Student Loan Forgiveness from 770,000 Borrowers
On Thursday, however, the Department of Education — without fanfare or a press conference — changed the rules by adding this content to its website: “As of Sept. 29, 2022, borrowers with federal student loans not held by ED cannot obtain one-time debt relief by consolidating those loans into Direct Loans.”…
    “This is a gut punch, to say the least,” tweeted Betsy Mayotte, president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors. “This is one of the most harmful decisions I’ve seen come out of the Ed in a long time.”…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/psyche-biden-yanks-student-loan-forgiveness-770000-borrowers
 
Kamala Harris Blasted for Pushing ‘Racist’ Policy in Response to Hurricane Damage
It is our lowest income communities and our communities of color that are most impacted by these extreme conditions and impacted by issues that are not of their own making,” Harris claimed. “And so, we have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equityunderstanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity, understanding not everyone starts out at the same place.” She added, “And if we want people to be in an equal place, sometimes we have to take into account those disparities and do that work.”…
    AEI fellow Sadanand Dhume responded, “Why do they make everything about race and gender?…
    Political commentator Ken Gardner tweeted: “This has to violate at least a dozen federal and state anti-discrimination laws. Not to mention the 14th Amendment.”…  
    “If journalists were any good at doing their jobs they’d be hammering Kamala Harris on the remarks she made today about how white families affected by Hurricane Ian won’t be getting any federal funds because the money will be diverted to ‘communities of color’ before all else,” writer Ian Miles Cheong tweeted.  https://www.dailywire.com/news/kamala-harris-blasted-for-pushing-racist-policy-in-response-to-hurricane-damage
 
DeSantis aide @ChristinaPushaw:  @VP’s rhetoric is causing undue panic and must be clarified. FEMA Individual Assistance is already available to all Floridians impacted by Hurricane Ian, regardless of race or background. If you need assistance visit https://t.co/x9X8AstnzL or call 1-800-621-3362.
 
Biden announces new sweeping sanctions on HUNDREDS of Russians in response to Putin’s annexation of four Ukraine regions https://t.co/WmEg3ojcDM
 
‘The pound has plummeted!’ Biden administration hits out at Truss tax cutting tactics
Tensions between the UK and US governments have come to the surface as the Biden administration publicly criticised Trussonomics… https://t.co/x7gxV5imuv
 
Biden Says Italy’s Democratic Election Threatens Democracy. Pardon? https://t.co/o9ou8sM22c
(“Threat to Democracy” = Threat to Democrats and/or their ideals)
House Democrats asked airlines to avoid stock buybacks after pandemic-era restrictions end this month, saying they should focus instead on meeting growing travel demandhttps://t.co/23HvAJdGB1
 
Rumors about Credit Suisse, closed at 3.92 on Friday, intensified over the weekend.  Chart at link:
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1575982933667565574
 
@HedgeyeDJ: Credit Suisse CDS (credit default swaps) close to surpassing levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis. Tick, tick … boom!  https://twitter.com/HedgeyeDJ/status/1576172725902905344
 
Credit Suisse has strong capital base and liquidity -CEO memo
Reuters reported last week that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash as it attempts a radical overhaul of its investment bank…
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/credit-suisse-has-strong-capital-base-liquidity-ceo-memo-2022-09-30/?taid=63375fe09efa6c000188e064
 
Other banks that are under scrutiny: Softbank, Barclays, Deutsche Bank
https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1576214676710432773
 
@LeutholdGroup: The Norm S&P 500 PE closed yesterday at 23.4x— exactly ten points above the median of the last 12 bear market lows. We know that “valuations aren’t timing tools,” but bulls should be cognizant that if the market were to bottom here, it would represent the “priciest” bear market.
https://twitter.com/LeutholdGroup/status/1575866065749303297
 
@zerohedge: Just in case it wasn’t bad enough: “24% of active mutual fund AUM has an October fiscal year end. Funds seeking to reduce their tax liabilities may sell some of their stocks in the coming month… some tax loss selling may already be under way.” – Goldman Sachs
 
OPEC+ to hold Oct. 5 meeting in person in Vienna
Sources have told Reuters talks on an oil output cut are focusing on a potential reduction of 500,000 barrels per day to 1 million bpd to support the market… (What if oil prices starting rallying?)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-hold-oct-5-meeting-person-vienna-opec-source-2022-10-01/
 
Gazprom Cuts Off Supplies of Russian Gas to Italy
    Company cites regulatory issue in Austria for gas cut-off
    Gazprom, Eni both say they are working to resolve the issue
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/gazprom-won-t-deliver-any-russian-gas-to-italy-on-saturday-eni
 
Russia withdraws troops from Lyman, strategic town in region Putin annexed
Russia suffered another setback during Ukraine’s counteroffensive, confirming it withdrew troops from the eastern town of Lyman, within the newly annexed Donetsk region…
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-war-russia-withdraws-troops-lyman-strategic-town-region-putin-annexed
 
@mhmck: The Russians were decisively defeated at Lyman. They’ll attempt to stabilize on the Kreminna-Svatove line but won’t hold out there for long. The Russians made a fatal mistake trying to hold Lyman at all costs and deploying most of their operational reserves to that doomed effort.
 
Today – Organic sellers overwhelmed Q3 performance gamers on Thursday and Friday.  Traders want to play for the Monday rally and start of the month buying.  Equities are extremely, even historically, oversold.  However, sometimes this extreme condition presages plunges.  The trends are clear; the magnitude and depth of ‘the problems’ is not clear.  Be safe!  The markets are in a perilous technical and psychological state. 
 
ESZs are -23.00 (were +12.00 at 18:21 ET); USZs are +4/32; and WTI Oil is +2.17 at 20:20 ET. 
 
Expected economic data: Sept S&P Global US Mfg PMI 51.8; Sept ISM Mfg 52.4, Prices Paid 52, New Orders 50.5, Employment 53; Aug Construction Spending -0.1% m/m; Sept Wards Total Vehicles Sales 13.55m; Richmond Fed Pres Bostic 9:05 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 15:10 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4012; 100-day MA: 3966; 150-day MA: 4098; 200-day MA: 4213
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,922; 100-day MA: 31,755; 150-day MA: 33,512; 200-day MA: 33,208
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4745.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4065.22 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3809.22 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3690.22 triggers a buy signal
 
@bennyjohnson: Would Joe Biden even be able to remotely operate without his caretaker Jill and his flashcards? Watch as Jill nudges eternally confused Joe Biden off stage.
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1575908361161392128
 
@greg_price11: Biden (on Friday – You can’t make this up!): “When I ran, I said one of the reasons I was running was to restore the soul of America. Bring back some decency and honor in the way we talk about one another and deal with one another.” https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1575884518275194883
 
@bennyjohnson: Biden: “Hispanic history is American history. As a matter of fact, as they say, ‘Y’all’ were here before we were.”   https://t.co/stODme6IuK
 
Biden phones hero Coast Guard diver to congratulate him – just days before he will FIRE him for being unvaccinated as 20,000 members of military face axe https://trib.al/qG5yJte
 
Pelosi decimated for claiming illegal immigrants need to stay in Florida to ‘pick the crops down here’ (racist) https://www.foxnews.com/media/pelosi-decimated-claiming-illegal-immigrants-need-stay-in-florida-pick-crops-down-here
 
@bennyjohnson: PELOSI: “Disaster relief, some of that needed right away for Iran, uh, Ion, uh, Ian…”
Is she getting high off Paul Pelosi’s supply?  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1575882531181731842
 
Outsourced censorship: Feds used private entity to target millions of social posts in 2020
Biden administration gave millions in tax dollars to groups after election, records show. Election Integrity Partnership says it had 35% success rate getting tech platforms to label, remove or restrict content… Three liberal groups — the Democratic National Committee, Common Cause and the NAACP — were also empowered like the federal agencies to file tickets seeking censorship of content. A Homeland-funded collaboration, the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, also had access… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/biden-administration-rewarded-private-entities-got-2020-election
 
Enemies list? Fed-backed censorship machine targeted 20 news sites – Just the News, New York Post, Fox News, Epoch Times and Breitbart were identified among the “most prominent domains” whose election coverage was cited in tweets flagged by the Election Integrity Partnership and its collaborators.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/watchdogs/news-organizations-targeted-fascist-public-private-partnership-stamp-out
 
@nytimes: A Michigan poll worker in the Aug. 2 primary has been charged with tampering with an election computer at a voting precinct, though the breach had no influence on the outcome of the primary election, state and local officials said. (But there is no election fraud in the US!) https://t.co/51xr9w8yfO
 
@MaximeBernier: It was revealed today that the giant consulting firm McKinsey, which also has as clients the WHO, Pfizer, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, secretly managed the Quebec government’s response to covid. Are conspiracy theories still a thing?
 
CAQ leader defends paying millions to U.S. consulting firm during pandemic -CBC
The political opponents of Coalition Avenir Québec Leader François Legault took aim at him on Friday after it was revealed his government awarded a major American consulting firm $35,000 a day for strategies on managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Legault said McKinsey & Company advised the government on best practices from around the world as Quebec faced a pandemic for the first time in a century. The advice from the company “saved lives,” the CAQ leader said…
    In the United States, McKinsey has faced a conflict-of-interest investigation in both houses of Congress because of its role advising health regulators while also working for opioid drugmakers on boosting sales of painkillers.  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/caq-legault-mckinsey-pandemic-consulting-1.6602374
 
WSJ: France’s Macron Under Fire for Hiring McKinsey for Covid Vaccine Rollout 3/31/2022
The French Senate released a report earlier this month detailing how the government spent €893.9 million, equivalent to $993 million, last year on consultants, including McKinsey & Co., to help French officials navigate the pandemic and other challenges. That was a sizable increase on the €379.1 million spent in 2018, Mr. Macron’s first full year in power, the report said…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-macron-under-fire-for-hiring-mckinsey-for-covid-vaccine-rollout-11648742872
 
For Obama, One Trump Term Wasn’t a Big Worry, but ‘Eight Years Would Be a Problem’
Transcript of private discussion with reporters released
Obama said his No. 1 concern about the incoming Trump administration was the potential politicization of law enforcement. He advised reporters at the time to pay close attention to the Justice Department. “I would be like white on rice on the Justice Department… I’d be paying a lot of attention to that. And if there is even a hint of politically motivated investigations, prosecutions, et cetera, I think you guys have to really be on top of that.”…  (Accuse others of what you are doing.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/obama-on-trump-1-presidential-term-is-okay-but-8-years-would-be-a-problem
 
‘Train Wreck’: Obama Blamed Comey, Clintons for Trump Win During Private Press Convos https://t.co/PbgKMLRejZ
 
Book reveals secret meeting between Adam Schiff’s aides and Ukraine whistleblower attorney
Claims by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) that he had no contact with the intelligence community whistleblower at the center of the first impeachment of then-President Donald Trump are disputed in a new book.  In Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’s Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump, authors Rachael Bade and Karoun Demirjian reveal a meeting between the whistleblower’s attorney, Andrew Bakaj, and lawyers working for the House Select Committee on Intelligence. This occurred in the run-up to the fall 2019 launch of an impeachment inquiry into Trump over allegations he demanded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to initiate corruption investigations into now-President Joe Biden in exchange for U.S. military aid already promised to Kyiv…
    That Sept. 9, 2019, meeting occurred prior to revelations about the phone call surfacing in the press and got underway before the whistleblower complaint had been forwarded to Congress, lending some credence to Republican charges, made during the impeachment inquiry, that the California Democrat was secretly coordinating with the whistleblower from the very beginning…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/secret-meeting-adam-schiff-aides-ukraine-whistleblower-attorney
 
US Army falls 25% short of recruiting goal (Woke might play in some spots, but not the military.)
Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy dip into pools of delayed entry applicants to meet goals
https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-army-falls-25-percent-short-recruiting-goal?intcmp=tw_fnc
 
Yom Kippur is Wednesday.  As a rabid Baby Boomer baseball fan as a youth, we will always associate Yom Kippur with Sandy Koufax.  In 1965, Koufax refused to pitch in Game One of the World Series because it was Yom Kippur.  We can’t recall anyone that brought more awareness for Yom Kippur.
 
Sandy Koufax’s (“The left arm of God”) refusal to pitch on Yom Kippur still resonates   Sep 21, 2015
So, Strom… like countless other Jewish fans, never forgot the significance of Koufax’s decision.
    “For kids growing up then, there was a sense of, ‘Here is someone on the world stage,'” Strom says. “… But if not pitching was that important and the right thing to do, that ought to tell the rest of us something.
   “He was important for all of us from then on because he made that commitment.”…
    “There was no hard decision for me… It was just a thing of respect. I wasn’t trying to make a statement, and I had no idea that it would impact that many people.”… (Koufax was the best pitcher at the time.)
    “What struck me [about his decision], as an 18-year-old, was that America must be a very great place,” Thorn says. “That a Jew cannot only profess his faith openly but take a stance for his religion in opposition to the national religion — and baseball is America’s national religion.”… “Koufax is still absolutely revered,” Thorn says. “And not merely by Jews.”… https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/13710996/los-angeles-dodgers-legend-sandy-koufax-decision-not-pitch-game-1-1965-world-series-yom-kippur-re

Greg Hunter interviewing Naomi Prins

(https://usawatchdog.com/massive-central-bank-ponzi-creates-permanent-distortion-nomi-prins/)

Massive Central Bank Ponzi Creates Permanent Distortion – Nomi Prins

By Greg Hunter On October 1, 2022 In Market Analysis2 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Three-time, best-selling book author Nomi Prins says the reason why there is so much uncertainty and chaos in the global economy comes down to one simple theme, and that is a couple of decades of central bank money printing has created the biggest Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen. Prins explains, “The Fed and other central banks have created basically this idea, and put it into practice, whenever there is real crisis, however they deem it, they are going to print money, and a lot of money. . . and pushing this envelope forward on the back of a very artificial fabrication of money. That is the Ponzi scheme here. The Ponzi scheme is actually the money that is sloshing around and is somehow owed more to reality. That it is owed to actual profits, actual production, actual growth in the economy, which it isn’t. . . . Look at the way money gets printed . . . as we saw and everybody woke up from the pandemic. Look at all the closures in the economy, and the economy still has not gotten back to where it was. It is still not stable. People are still facing economic angst, but the Fed created four and a half trillion dollars of money basically overnight. That’s a Ponzi scheme. That is something that is going to keep going whenever there is a crisis, and that is going to paper over the fact we are not actually healthy. . . . That’s the definition of a Ponzi scheme when you always have new money coming in, and in this case, it’s new money being created by the central banks. It will replace any cracks, any faults, any problems that are emerging along the way. . . The Fed doubled its balance sheet and did not double the economy. . . . That’s a Ponzi.”

Prins goes on to say, “We are not retiring $30 trillion in U.S. debt. We are not retiring $287 trillion in debt around the world. That is not happening. . . . Yes, there are indications we could have a massive crash, but to me . . . I think there is a treadmill that is spinning here that is going to keep spinning instead of completely crashing. That’s why I think there is going to be a lot of mini crashes, followed by mini rallies along the way. I don’t think we are in a period, which is why I call this a permanent distortion, where there is going to be a backing off of all the money that is being created. . . . I don’t see one massive crash. I see massive turbulence, which is this permanent distortion. . . .I don’t see an end point unless there is an external factor. . . .There are things that are coupled with the instability we have in the markets relative to this money being printed . . . and if they come at the same time, yes, we could have a massive crash, we absolutely could.”

Meanwhile, in the real economy, the struggles for common people will continue to get worse. Prins says, “Right now, about 20 million families in the United States are behind by one or more payments on their electric bill because they cannot afford them at these levels relative to rent and food and all these other things that are going up. 20% of Americans are using their credit cards now to pay their utility bills, and they are starting to get behind on those credit cards for which rates have gone up. So, we are in this situation where all these problems are happening at the same time for most real people in the real economy. . . .Raising interest rates so quickly is hurting people way more than people leveraged in the markets.”

Prins’ advice for common people is to stay away from debt, buy gold, silver and other metals, and hold on to some cash. Prins says, “I do think the dollar will weaken from its high levels, but I think it is going to strengthen first. . . . When we get to the Fed three-part pivot (smaller rate increases, followed by neutral policy and then more money printing), we are going to see a weakening of the dollar.”

There is much more in the 55-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with three-time, best-selling author Nomi Prins to talk about her upcoming book called “Permanent Distortion,” as she explains why there is no going back to the way things were.


(https://usawatchdog.com/massive-central-bank-ponzi-creates-permanent-distortion-nomi-prins/)

After the Interview:

You can pre-order “Permanent Distortion” on the home page of NomiPrins.com.

See you  TOMMOROW

HARVEY

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