by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $0.70 to $1712.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSE: UP $0.11 to $20.61

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1712.60

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.67

New: early yesterday morning//very ominous:

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 12:15 p.m., a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board’s Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board’s offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. and by audio/video conference call, to consider the following matters of official Board business.

Bitcoin morning price: $20,242 UP 164 (from Tuesday)

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,035 DOWN 43

Platinum price closing DOWN 5.70 AT $925.50

Palladium price; closing DOWN $31.05 at $2278.80

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/closing ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2355.00 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ UP $18.50 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD INPOUNDS: 1534.05 POUNDS PER OZ UP 21.13 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1748.37 EUROS PER OZ// UP 14.60 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,711.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/05/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/07/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 33
132 C SG AMERICAS 12
323 H HSBC 6
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 341
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 109
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 166
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 9 25
880 C CITIGROUP 7

TOTAL: 365 365
MONTH TO DATE: 21,334

JPMORGAN STOPPED 166/365

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT: 255

365 NOTICES FOR 36500 OZ //1.123 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,334 contracts for 2,133,400 oz (66.357 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICES FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 253 : for 1,265,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $0.70

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A DEPOSIT OF 3,45

TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.11

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.300 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.617 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3357 CONTRACTS TO 126,167 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE $0.54 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.54). HOWEVER OUR SPEC SHORTS ARE DESPARATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE COMEX OI SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) CONTINUAL SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A 105,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/SPEC COVERING THEIR SHORTS.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –157

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 49,425 contracts: 29.65 million oz OR 4.94MILLION OZ PER DAY. (823 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.65 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.65 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3357 WITH OUR STRONG $0.54 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1650 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER ADDITIONS A// HUGE SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//SMALL NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS// /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 105,000 QUEUE JUMP .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1747 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.735MILLION OZ..

WE HAD 31 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 155,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3889 CONTRACTS TO 433,176 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED — -1211 CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.35//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY // SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 3,500 OZ//NEW STANDING 68.065 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.35 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1396 OI CONTRACTS 4.342 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2493 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 433,176

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1396 CONTRACTS WITH 3889 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2493 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1396 CONTRACTS OR 04.342 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2678) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3889): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1396 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3500 OZ QUEUE JUMP///NEW STANDING 68.065 TONNES//. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

12,507 CONTRACTS OR 1,250,700 OZ OR 38.90 TONNES 6TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2084 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 38.90 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 38.90/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 38.90 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3357 CONTRACT OI TO 126,167 AND FURTHER FROM TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1610 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1610 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1610 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3357 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1610 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1747 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.735 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.54

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 190.77PTS OR 0.78% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.04% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.0720// /Oil UP TO 87.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 93.01 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3357 CONTRACTS TO 434,387 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $10.35 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2493 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3785 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :3785 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3585 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY TINY SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 185 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2493 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3357 CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $10.35//WE HAD SPEC SHORTS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS WITH BANKERS TAKING THE OTHER SIDE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT (68.065),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 68.065 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $10.35) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY TINY SIZED TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 185 CONTRACTS // WE HAVE REGISTERED A SMALL LOSS OF 4.342 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (68.065 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING

WE HAD -1211 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1396 CONTRACTS OR 139,600 OZ OR 4.342 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 133,881// poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday 185,989/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 6

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	14,477,295 oz Brinks Delaware HSBC
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	365 notice(s) 36500 OZ 0.7932 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	549 contracts 54,900oz 1.707 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	21,334 notices 2,133,400 66.357 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

customer withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks: 96.46 oz 3 kilobars

ii) Out of Delaware: 2604.23 oz 81 kilobars

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 11,776.604 oz

total: 14,477.295 oz

total in tonnes: 0.4502 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

JPM: dealer to customer; 17,361,540 0z

and

Brinks: 5883.633 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an oi of 914 contracts having GAINED 280 contracts . We had 255 contracts

filed on Wednesday, so we gained 35 contracts or an additional 3500 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct.

We will gain gold oz standing on each and every trading day from this day forth until the conclusion of October.

(remember that queue jumping is really EFP’s exercised from London for gold underwritten by COMEX based bankers)

November GAINED 298 contracts to stand at 2793

December lost 6264 contracts down to 374,909

We had 365 notice(s) filed today for 36500 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 365 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 166 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,334) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (OCT 914 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 365 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,188,300 OZ OR 68.065 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21.334) x 100 oz+ (914) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (365} x 100 oz} which equals 2,188,300 oz standing OR 68.065 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 68.065 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,067,434.605 oz 64.30 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 26,255,834.279 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,003,776.116 OZ (404,447 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,252,058.163 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,936,342 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.166 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 6//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,673,074,.106 oz Brinks CNT Delaware Int Delaware JPMorgan Manfra Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,211,371/828 oz Delaware HSBC CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	31 CONTRACT(S) 155,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	76 contracts (380,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	253 contracts 1,265,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 8124.004 oz

ii) Into CNT: 580,371.460 oz

iii) Into HSBC 623,876.350

Total deposits: 1,211,371.828 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 161.406million oz/312.735million =51.61% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 7 (vaults very busy/demand high)

i)Out of CNT 10,329.474 oz

ii)Out of Brinks: 7627.02 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 21,870.848 oz

iv) Out of Int Delaware: 101,794.390 oz

v) JPMorgan: 585,464.120 oz

vi) Out of Manfra: 245m225.973 oz

vii) Out of Loomis: 700,762.280 oz

total withdrawals: 1,673,074.106 oz

adjustments: // 1

jpmorgan: dealer to customer 4965.800 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 40.150 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 312.735 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 107 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 119 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 140 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 21

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 405

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3890 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 108,630

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for 155,000 oz

Comex volumes:81,613// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65,273 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 253 x 5,000 oz = 1,265,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(107) and the number of notices served upon today 31 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 253 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (107) – number of notices served upon today (31) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 1,645,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:50,721// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 84,600contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DWEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTOTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 946.34 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 475.617 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

end

Lawrie Williams

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This will be good for the gold price: banks are diverting gold supply from India to China and Turkey

There is not enough gold to supply the gold hungry gang from India

(Reuters)

Banks divert gold supply from India to China and Turkey

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-10-04 16:37Section: Daily Dispatches

By Rajendra Jadhav
Reuters
Tuesday, October 4, 2022

MUMBAI — Gold-supplying banks have cut back shipments to India ahead of major festivals in favour of focusing on China, Turkey, and other markets where better premiums are offered, three bank officials and two vault operators told Reuters.

That could create scarcity in the world’s second-biggest market for gold, and force Indian buyers to start paying hefty premiums for supplies in the approaching peak-demand season.

Leading gold suppliers to India — which include ICBC Standard Bank, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered — usually import more gold ahead of festivals and store it in vaults.

But vaults now hold less than 10% of the gold they did a year ago, the sources said on Tuesday.

“Ideally a few tonnes of gold should be there in vaults during this time of the year. But now we only have a few kilos,” said one Mumbai-based vault official. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/exclusive-banks-divert-gold-supply-india-china-turkey-sources-2022-10-04/

END

GATA’s Ed Steer interviewed by Dave Russell of GoldCore

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-10-04 21:42Section: Daily Dispatches

9:42p Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, is interviewed today by GoldCore’s Dave Russell about the international financial markets, the depression he sees looming ahead, and the potential for the monetary metals and commodities to serve as havens against disaster.

The interview is 28 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0720

SHANGHAI CLOSED:

HANG SENG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed UP 190.77 PTS OR 0.70%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 111.41/Euro FALLS TO 0.98580

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.244/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.68/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: XX -// OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.018%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.76%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.197%…** DANGEROUS//ECB IS MANIPULATING ITALIAN BOND YIELD DOWN/ALL THE REST UP

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.705//

3j Gold at $1717.90//silver at: 20.70 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 6/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.23//

3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.68DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9842– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9710well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.769 UP 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.760 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,58…GETTTING DANGEROUS

end

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Slide As OPEC+ Cut Sparks Gas Inflation Fears And “Tighter For Longer” Fed

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 08:02 AM

Two days ago, when stocks were melting up even as oil was storming higher and threatened to rerate inflation expectations sharply higher, we mused that algos were clearly ignoring this potentially ominously convergence.

And while yesterday we saw the first cracks developing in the meltup narrative as oil extended gains following OPEC’s stark slap on the face of the dementia patient in the White House, it was only today that the “oil is about to push inflation sharply higher” discussion entered the broader financial sphere, with JPM writing this morning that “OPEC+ presents inflation risk”, Bloomberg echoing JPM that “OPEC+ alliance’s plan to cut oil supply stoked inflation fears and as traders awaited labor-market data to gauge the risk of recession” and Saxo Bank also jumping on the bandwagon, warning that OPEC+ supply cut will worsen global inflation which “raises the risk of inflation staying higher for longer” and “sends the wrong signal to the US Federal Reserve… It could send a signal that they have to keep on their foot on the brake for longer.”

And sure enough, with oil rising above its 50DMA for the first time since Aug 30, futures have slumped overnight as oil kept its gains, with S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures both sliding 0.5% as of 730am, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 erased an advance and traded near session lows. US crude futures held on to weekly gains of about 11% after the oil cartel said it would cut daily output by 2 million barrels. Treasuries were steady, the 10Y trading around 3.77%, with the 2Y rate hovering about the 4.15% level.

In pre-market trading, Credit Suisse jumped as much as 5.2% after JPMorgan upgraded to neutral from underweight, saying it sees $15bn as a minimum value for the lender, in-line with the estimated value of the Swiss legal entity. Shares were 2% higher by 13:20pm CET in Zurich, after Bloomberg News reported that the lender is trying to bring in an outside investor to inject money into a spinoff of its advisory and investment banking businesses, citing people with knowledge of the deliberations. Other banks did not do as well, and slumped in premarket trading Thursday, putting them on track to fall for a second straight day. Twitter shares fell as much as 1.1% to $50.75, trading nearly 7% below Elon Musk’s offer price of $54.20 as investors await progress in the revived deal. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

Pinterest (PINS US) shares jump as much as 5.8% in US premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the social networking site to buy from neutral on improving user growth and better engagement trends, even as the backdrop for digital advertising remains uncertain.
Biohaven Ltd. (BHVN US) shares rise 9.7% in US premarket trading, set to extend a 75% gain over the past two days as regular trading in the newly constituted drug developer began following an unusual deal with Pfizer Inc.
SurgePays (SURG US) shares soar as much as 11% in premarket trading after the company gave an update on subscriber numbers for its subsidiary SurgePhone Wireless.
Flutter (FLTR LN) gained 3.3% in premarket trading as it was initiated at outperform at Exane as the best-placed online gambling name, while Entain also at outperform and DraftKings started at underperform.
Richardson Electronics (RELL US) rose 8.2% in extended trading after reporting year-over-year growth in net sales and earnings per share for the fiscal first quarter.

While higher energy prices could stoke inflation, some have speculated that this will also divert discretionary income from core items thus pushing core inflation lower and hit company earnings — potentially encouraging the Federal Reserve to slow monetary tightening.

While such expectations fueled equity gains this week, several money managers are cautioning that the economic path to a less aggressive Fed could be painful: “If you want to preempt the Fed, you are playing a very high-stakes game,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA. “The Fed do not want financial conditions to loosen; they don’t want equity markets to take off and get too comfortable.”

That said, investors are wary of placing large-scale equity bets as they await a report on US initial jobless claims later Thursday and the official nonfarm payrolls data Friday. A Bloomberg survey shows the US economy will have added 260,000 jobs last month; a higher-than-anticipated number may spook markets.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 dropped -0.3% to session lows. Stoxx 600 outperforms peers, adding 0.2%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.5%. Energy and insurance underperform while real estate and travel lead gains. Here are all the notable European movers:

Imperial Brands shares rise as much as 4.7% after the tobacco company said it will buy back up to £1b worth of stock. The move was welcomed by analysts, with RBC calling it a “big deal” and Citigroup saying the announcement was earlier than expected.
Home24 SE gains as much as 126% to EU7.53 after XXXLutz offered to buy all outstanding shares in the German online furniture retailer for EU7.50 apiece. The bid is generous and the deal is straightforward from a regulatory perspective, according to Tradition.
Credit Suisse jumps as much as 5.2% after JPMorgan upgraded to neutral from underweight, saying it sees $15b as a minimum value for the lender, in-line with the estimated value of the Swiss legal entity.
CMC Markets climbs as much as 6.5% after the online trading firm said it sees first- half net operating income up 21% y/y, with market volatility in August and September boosting the results. Numis upgraded the stock to add from hold following the report.
Shell drops as much as 5% as analysts say the oil and gas major’s trading update looks “weak” and may mean that FY consensus proves too ambitious.
Kloeckner falls as much as 12% as the company faces a “high likelihood” of an imminent profit warning, Bankhaus Metzler says, double-downgrading the stock to sell from buy.
Swiss Re is among the weakest members of the Stoxx 600 insurance index on Thursday, declining as much as 4.0%, as Morgan Stanley lowers its price target ahead of third-quarter earnings.
Accor drops as much as 2.5% after the hotel chain owner was downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Barclays, which sees short-term risks as bigger for the company compared with peers and feels investors are looking more at potential negative factors heading into FY23 than 2022 upgrades.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a third day as hardware technology stocks in South Korea and Japan advanced on views they may have reached a bottom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.9%, lifted by TSMC, SoftBank and Sony. The benchmark trimmed gains later in the day, but remains on track to advance for the week, following a seven-week losing streak that was the longest since 2015.Korea’s Kospi Index was the region’s best-performing major benchmark, jumping about 1%. The advance was helped by chipmakers extending their gains amid Morgan Stanley’s bullish view on the sector. Hong Kong stocks retreated after Wednesday’s catch-up rally.

Trading volume in the region was light as mainland China remains closed for the Golden Week holiday. The MSCI’s Asian benchmark has rebounded this week from its lowest in more than two years. The move tracked a nascent revival in global equities on bets that the Federal Reserve may turn less aggressive in its tightening. In a potential harbinger of shifting market views, Morgan Stanley strategists upgraded emerging-market and Asia ex-Japan stocks to overweight from equal-weight. Investors are also optimistic that monetary policies in China and Japan, which have bucked the global wave of tightening to remain loose, could provide further support to the nations’ equities. “While the rest of the world is tightening, Japan and China are still easing, especially China where we are going to see more easing policies going forward,” Chi Lo, senior investment strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “That makes us more positive on EM Asia.”

Japanese equities gained for a fourth day as investors awaited domestic corporate earnings coming out later this month. The Topix rose 0.5% to 1,922.47 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.7% to 27,311.30. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 1.7%. Out of 2,168 stocks in the index, 1,564 rose and 490 fell, while 114 were unchanged. “There is relatively little concern about corporate earnings for Japanese stocks with the economy restarting and the yen weakening,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index consolidated within the recent day’s ranges, while Britain’s pound slipped 0.4% and gilt yields rose after Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on the nation to negative. The greenback advanced against most of its G-10 peers. The euro steadied just below $0.99. Euro hedging costs are on the rise again as traders position ahead of Friday’s payrolls print and next week’s US inflation report. Commodity currencies were the worst performers along with the pound. Australian and New Zealand dollars gave up an Asia-session advance. The yen traded in a narrow range.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve after paring declines led by gilts in London trading after a Bank of England survey found expectations for higher prices. Focal points of US session include several Fed speakers and potential for risk-reduction ahead of Friday’s September jobs report Friday. US yields cheaper by less than 2bp across the curve in bear- flattening move, 10-year by 2bp vs 17bp for UK 10-year, the downside leader in developed market sovereign bonds. German and Italian bond curves flattened modestly as yields on shorter-dated notes rose, while those further out fell.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $88 a barrel, while Brent crude held near $93.30. The output-cut plan drew a warning from the White House about negative effects on the global economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its fourth-quarter price target for Brent to $110 a barrel.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for August, the German and UK construction PMIs for September, Euro Area retail sales for August, and the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s account of their September meeting, as well as remarks from the Fed’s Evans, Cook, Kashkari, Waller and Mester, and the BoE’s Haskel.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,783.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 400.25
MXAP up 0.4% to 145.05
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 471.37
Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,311.30
Topix up 0.5% to 1,922.47
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 18,012.15
Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
Sensex up 0.6% to 58,403.02
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,817.52
Kospi up 1.0% to 2,237.86
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.05%
Euro little changed at $0.9886
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $93.62/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,716.69
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 111.24

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

UK bond markets face a potential “cliff edge” when the Bank of England exits the market at the end of next week, leaving traders to navigate a turbulent backdrop without the support of a buyer of last resort
Millions more Britons will be dragged into higher rates of income tax over the next three years, costing twice as much as Prime Minister Liz Truss’s personal tax cuts, according to calculations by the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Britain’s construction industry turned more pessimistic in September after rising interest rates and the risk of recession held back new orders
The European Union plans to examine whether Germany’s massive plan to shelter companies and households from surging energy costs respects the bloc’s rules on public subsidies, EU Commissioner Thierry Breton said
German factory orders dropped in August after the previous month was revised to show an increase, hinting at a lack of momentum as the economy stands on the brink of a recession
Societe Generale SA cut its exposure to counterparties on trades in China by about $80 million in the past few weeks as global banks seek to guard against any potential fallout from rising geopolitical risks in the world’s second-largest economy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed as the region partially shrugged off the lacklustre lead from the US where the major indices snapped a firm two-day rally and finished the somewhat choppy session with mild losses amid higher yields and as Fed rhetoric essentially pushed back against a policy pivot. ASX 200 lacked direction amid underperformance in the Real Estate and the Consumer sectors, although the downside was also limited by strength in energy after oil prices were lifted by the OPEC+ output cut. Nikkei 225 was positive with notable gains in exporter names and with Rakuten leading the advances as Mizuho looks to acquire a 20% stake in Rakuten Securities for USD 555mln. Hang Seng was lacklustre and took a breather after the prior day’s more than 5% jump with the mood also not helped after Hong Kong PMI slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 6 months.

Top Asian News

Haikou city in China’s Hainan imposed a COVID lockdown for Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
Malaysia PM May Propose Parliament Dissolution, Bernama Reports
Why Polio, Once Nearly Eradicated, Is Rebounding: QuickTake
Legoland Korea’s Default Flags Risks for Nation’s Developers
Paris Club Seeks China Collaboration in Sri Lanka Debt Talks
Yen Rout Is Over on Peak US Rate Hike Bets, Says Top Forecaster

European bourses are under modest pressure as sentiment broadly takes a slight turn for the worst amid limited newsflow as participants look to Friday’s NFP. Currently, European benchmarks are lower by 0.1-0.3% while US futures are posting slightly larger losses of circa 0.7 ahead of Fed speak.

Top European News

Fitch affirmed the UK at AA-; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable, while it stated that the fiscal package announced as part of the new UK government’s growth plan could lead to a significant increase in deficits over the medium-term, according to Reuters.
The UK Treasury is set to impose GBP 21bln of additional income taxes despite the “tax-cutting mini-budget”, according to a study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. (Times)
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2022; looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 9.5% one-year ahead, up from 8.4% in the August survey, and 4.8% in three years’ time.
BoE’s Cunliffe says the FPC will publish its next financial policy statement and record on October 12th, liquidity conditions in the run up to the BoE gilt intervention were “very poor”, MPC will make a full assessment of recent developments at its November 3rd meeting.
UK government has proposed easing the fee cap for illiquid assets in pensions, according to a rule consultation publication by the government.
Swedish Economy Shrinks More Than Estimated on Weak Industry
UK Tech M&A Spree Pauses as Buyers Pull Out Amid Chaotic Markets

USD benefits from the mentioned risk tone, with the DXY extending to a 111.35 peak to the modest detriment of peers.
However, EUR is relatively resilient and holding around 0.99 vs the USD as we await the ECB Minutes account for near-term guidance.
Cable faded sub-1.1400 and reversed through 1.1300 again amid the USD’s move and prior to a letter exchange from the BoE to Treasury re. the Gilt Intervention.
Antipodeans under pressure given the USD move and associated action in metals, while the Yuan initially lent a helping hand but this has since dissipated.
Given the broader tone, the traditional havens are holding near unchanged levels though yield dynamics are a hinderance.

Fixed Income

Gilts are once again the standout laggard following rating agency action and the BoE DMP showing inflation pressures were already elevated MM before the fiscal update.
As such, the UK yield has extended back above 4.10%; in the US, yields are also bid though to a much lesser extent before Fed speak and Friday’s jobs.
Back to Europe, Bunds are pressured though only modestly so vs UK counterparts awaiting the ECB’s September account

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer at present, extending marginally above yesterday’s best levels with fresh newsflow limited as participants digest yesterday’s OPEC+ action.
WTI and Brent are towards the mid-point of circa. USD 1/bbl ranges, though Brent Dec’22 briefly surpassed the 200-DMA at USD 94.11/bbl before moving back below the figure.
Acting Kuwaiti Oil Minister said the OPEC+ decision to cut output will have positive ramifications for oil markets, while they understand consumers’ concerns about prices increasing but added that the main motive in OPEC+ is balancing supply and demand, according to Reuters.
US National Security official stated the US sanctions policy on Venezuela remains unchanged and there are no plans to change the sanctions policy without constructive steps from Maduro, according to Reuters.
Norway’s Budget proposes changing the temporary tax rules for the petroleum sector, entails that the uplift is reduced to 12.40% (prev. 17.69%), via Reuters.
Saudi sets the November Arab Light OSP to N.W Europe at Ice Brent +USD 0.90/bbl; to the US at ASCI +USD 6.35/bbl, via Reuters citing a document; to Asia at Oman/Dubai +USD 5.85 (Unch.), via Reuters sources.

Geopolitics

North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles which were fired from Pyongyang and landed outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the South Korean military cited by Yonhap. Furthermore, North Korea said that its missile launches are counteraction measures against the US and South Korean military drills.
North Korean jets and bombers have been seen flying in an exercise, according to Yonhap; South Korean jets take off in response, via Reuters.
US State Department condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launch and said North Korea’s missile launches pose a threat to regional neighbours and the international community, while it added that the US remains committed to a diplomatic approach to North Korea and called on North Korea to engage in dialogue, according to Reuters.
The EU has approved the 8th round of Russian sanctions; as expected.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.35m, prior 1.35m
08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 204,000, prior 193,000

Central bank Speakers

08:50: Fed’s Mester Makes Opening Remarks
09:15: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in Moderated Q&A
13:00: Fed’s Evans Takes Part in Moderated Q&A
13:00: Fed’s Cook Speaks on the Economic Outlook
13:00: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Cyber Risk and Financial Stability
17:00: Fed’s Waller Discusses the Economic Outlook
18:30: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

After an astonishing rally at the beginning of Q4, markets reversed course yesterday as investors became much more sceptical that we’ll actually get a dovish pivot from central banks after all. The idea of a pivot has been a prominent theme over recent days, particularly after the financial turmoil during the last couple of weeks, thus sparking the biggest 2-day rally in the S&P 500 since April 2020 as the week began. But over the last 24 hours, solid US data releases have created a pushback against that narrative, since they were seen as giving the Fed more space to keep hiking rates over the coming months. And if markets had any further doubt about the Fed’s intentions, San Francisco Fed President Daly explicitly said yesterday that she didn’t expect there to be rate cuts next year, in direct contrast to futures that are still pricing in rate cuts from Q2. Indeed for a sense of just how volatile the reaction has been, 10yr bund yields were up by +16.3bps yesterday, which is their largest daily rise since March 2020 during the initial wave of the pandemic.

Looking at the details of those releases, it was evident that markets are still treating good news as bad news at the minute, since they sold off even as data pointed to a more resilient performance from the US economy than had been thought. For example, the ISM services index came in above expectations at 56.7 (vs. 56.0 expected), and the employment component moved up to a 6-month high of 53.0. So that’s a noticeably different picture to the manufacturing print on Monday, when there was a surprise contraction in the employment component. Furthermore, there was another sign of labour market strength from the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which came in at +208k in September (vs. +200k expected), and the previous month’s reading was also revised upwards. We’ll see if that picture is echoed in the US jobs report tomorrow, but there was a clear reaction to the ISM print in markets, as investors moved to upgrade the amount of Fed hikes they were expecting whilst the equity selloff accelerated.

Those expectations of a more hawkish Fed were given significant support by comments from Fed officials themselves. The most obvious came from San Francisco Fed President Daly, who was asked about the fact that futures were pricing in rate cuts, and said “I don’t see that happening at all”. In fact when it came to rates, she not only said that they were raising them into restrictive territory, but that they would be “holding it there” until inflation fell. Atlanta Fed President Bostic struck a similar tone, emphasising rate cuts in 2023 were not likely and that “I am not advocating a quick turn toward accommodation. On the contrary.” He said he wanted fed funds rates between 4% and 4.5% by the end of this year, “and then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react.”

That backdrop led to a sizeable cross-asset selloff yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic. The effects on the rates side were particularly prominent, with 10yr US Treasury yields bouncing back +12.0bps to 3.75%. And that move was entirely driven by real yields, which rose +15.1bps as investors moved to price in a more hawkish Fed over the months ahead. You could see that taking place in Fed funds futures too, with the rate priced in for December 2023 up by +8.9bps to 4.19%, thus partially reversing the -22.2bps move lower over the previous two sessions. This morning, 10yr yields are only down -1.0 bps, so far from unwinding those moves.

The hawkish tones also proved bad news for equities, with the S&P 500 taking a breather following its blistering start to the week, retreating -0.20% after being as low as -1.80% in the New York morning. European equities did not enjoy the benefits of a New York afternoon rally, leading to a transatlantic divergence, and the STOXX 600 was down -1.02% on a broad-based decline. The energy sector outperformed in both the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 following a rally in crude oil which saw both Brent crude (+2.81%) and WTI (+2.53%) oil prices hit a 3-week high. That followed a decision from the OPEC+ group, who cut output by 2 million barrels per day. Those gains have continued in overnight trading as well, with Brent Crude now at $93.48/bbl.

In Europe, the performance of sovereign bonds echoed that for US Treasuries, as yields on 10yr bunds (+16.3bps), OATs (+17.6bps) and BTPs (+29.0bps) all saw their largest daily increases since March 2020. As in the US, that reflected growing scepticism about a dovish pivot from the ECB, but another factor not helping matters was the rebound in energy prices, with natural gas futures up +7.25% on the day to close at €174 per megawatt-hour, alongside the oil rebound mentioned above. That’s been reflected in inflation expectations too, with the 10yr German breakeven up another +8.0bps yesterday to 2.15%, after having closed beneath 2% on Monday for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

Here in the UK, we also saw several key assets lose ground once again following their rally over the last week. For instance, sterling ended a run of 6 consecutive daily gains against the US Dollar to close -1.31% lower, closing back at $1.13. And that wasn’t simply a story of dollar strength, as the pound weakened against every other G10 currency as well. Gilts were another asset to struggle, with real yields in particular seeing significant daily rises of at least +30bps across most of the yield curve, including a +33.0bps rise for the 10yr real yield, and a +36.7bps rise for the 30yr real yield. That came as the Bank of England said they didn’t buy any gilts under their emergency operation for a second day running. In the meantime, there were fresh signs that the turmoil after the fiscal announcement was impacting the mortgage market, with Moneyfacts saying that the average 2yr fixed-rate mortgage had risen to 6.07%, which is the highest since November 2008. Last night that was then followed up by the news that Fitch had downgraded the UK’s outlook from stable to negative.

Overnight in Asia there’s been a mixed performance from the major equity indices. Both the Nikkei (+0.94%) and the Kospi (+1.25%) have recorded solid advances, which continues their run of having risen every day this week. In addition, futures in the US and Europe are both pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.49%. However, the Hang Seng is down -0.43% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down -0.05%, whilst markets in mainland China remain closed for a holiday. The dollar index has also lost ground overnight, falling -0.25%, which comes in spite of those hawkish comments from Fed officials pushing back against rate cuts next year.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the final services and composite PMIs mostly echoed the data from the flash readings. The composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised down a tenth to 48.1, and the US composite PMI was revised up two-tenths to 49.5. There was a bigger rise in the UK however, where the composite PMI was revised up seven-tenths to 49.1.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Risk sentiment dips in limited newsflow ahead of Fed speak with focus turning to NFP – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 06:33 AM

European bourses are under modest pressure as sentiment broadly takes a slight turn for the worst amid limited newsflow as participants look to Friday’s NFP.
USD benefits from the mentioned risk tone, with the DXY extending to a 111.35 peak to the modest detriment of peers; though EUR is relatively resilient.
Gilts are once again the standout laggard following rating agency action and the BoE DMP showing inflation pressures were already elevated MM before the fiscal update.
Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer at present, extending marginally above yesterday’s best levels with fresh newsflow limited as participants digest yesterday’s OPEC+ action.
Softer sentiment has led strength to the USD, to the detriment of metals with spot gold once again capped by the 50-DMA at USD 1722/oz.
The EU has approved the 8th round of Russian sanctions, as expected. While N. Korea fired missiles and bombers/jets have been seen.
Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester.

As of 11:10BST/06:10ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

LOOKING AHEAD

ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester.
Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles which were fired from Pyongyang and landed outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the South Korean military cited by Yonhap. Furthermore, North Korea said that its missile launches are counteraction measures against the US and South Korean military drills.
North Korean jets and bombers have been seen flying in an exercise, according to Yonhap; South Korean jets take off in response, via Reuters.
US State Department condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launch and said North Korea’s missile launches pose a threat to regional neighbours and the international community, while it added that the US remains committed to a diplomatic approach to North Korea and called on North Korea to engage in dialogue, according to Reuters.
The EU has approved the 8th round of Russian sanctions; as expected.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are under modest pressure as sentiment broadly takes a slight turn for the worst amid limited newsflow as participants look to Friday’s NFP.
Currently, European benchmarks are lower by 0.1-0.3% while US futures are posting slightly larger losses of circa 0.7 ahead of Fed speak.
Click here for more detail.

FX

USD benefits from the mentioned risk tone, with the DXY extending to a 111.35 peak to the modest detriment of peers.
However, EUR is relatively resilient and holding around 0.99 vs the USD as we await the ECB Minutes account for near-term guidance.
Cable faded sub-1.1400 and reversed through 1.1300 again amid the USD’s move and prior to a letter exchange from the BoE to Treasury re. the Gilt Intervention.
Antipodeans under pressure given the USD move and associated action in metals, while the Yuan initially lent a helping hand but this has since dissipated.
Given the broader tone, the traditional havens are holding near unchanged levels though yield dynamics are a hinderance.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Gilts are once again the standout laggard following rating agency action and the BoE DMP showing inflation pressures were already elevated MM before the fiscal update.
As such, the UK yield has extended back above 4.10%; in the US, yields are also bid though to a much lesser extent before Fed speak and Friday’s jobs.
Back to Europe, Bunds are pressured though only modestly so vs UK counterparts awaiting the ECB’s September account.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer at present, extending marginally above yesterday’s best levels with fresh newsflow limited as participants digest yesterday’s OPEC+ action.
WTI and Brent are towards the mid-point of circa. USD 1/bbl ranges, though Brent Dec’22 briefly surpassed the 200-DMA at USD 94.11/bbl before moving back below the figure.
Acting Kuwaiti Oil Minister said the OPEC+ decision to cut output will have positive ramifications for oil markets, while they understand consumers’ concerns about prices increasing but added that the main motive in OPEC+ is balancing supply and demand, according to Reuters.
US National Security official stated the US sanctions policy on Venezuela remains unchanged and there are no plans to change the sanctions policy without constructive steps from Maduro, according to Reuters.
Norway’s Budget proposes changing the temporary tax rules for the petroleum sector, entails that the uplift is reduced to 12.40% (prev. 17.69%), via Reuters.
Saudi sets the November Arab Light OSP to N.W Europe at Ice Brent +USD 0.90/bbl; to the US at ASCI +USD 6.35/bbl, via Reuters citing a document; to Asia at Oman/Dubai +USD 5.85 (Unch.), via Reuters sources.
Softer sentiment has led strength to the USD, to the detriment of metals with *spot gold *once again capped by the 50-DMA at USD 1722/oz.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

Fitch affirmed the UK at AA-; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable, while it stated that the fiscal package announced as part of the new UK government’s growth plan could lead to a significant increase in deficits over the medium-term, according to Reuters.
The UK Treasury is set to impose GBP 21bln of additional income taxes despite the “tax-cutting mini-budget”, according to a study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. (Times)
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2022; looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 9.5% one-year ahead, up from 8.4% in the August survey, and 4.8% in three years’ time.
BoE’s Cunliffe says the FPC will publish its next financial policy statement and record on October 12th, liquidity conditions in the run up to the BoE gilt intervention were “very poor”, MPC will make a full assessment of recent developments at its November 3rd meeting.
UK government has proposed easing the fee cap for illiquid assets in pensions, according to a rule consultation publication by the government.

DATA:

German Industrial Orders MM* (Aug) -2.4% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. 1.9%)
EU S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 45.3 (Prev. 44.2), German S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 41.8 (Prev. 42.6)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Twitter (TWTR) and Elon Musk agreed to postpone Musk’s Thursday deposition with no new time set, according to a source familiar with the litigation cited by Reuters.
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is modestly firmer a present but, once again, remains within fairly contained parameters and holding around the USD 20k mark.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region partially shrugged off the lacklustre lead from the US where the major indices snapped a firm two-day rally and finished the somewhat choppy session with mild losses amid higher yields and as Fed rhetoric essentially pushed back against a policy pivot.
ASX 200 lacked direction amid underperformance in the Real Estate and the Consumer sectors, although the downside was also limited by strength in energy after oil prices were lifted by the OPEC+ output cut.
Nikkei 225 was positive with notable gains in exporter names and with Rakuten leading the advances as Mizuho looks to acquire a 20% stake in Rakuten Securities for USD 555mln.
Hang Seng was lacklustre and took a breather after the prior day’s more than 5% jump with the mood also not helped after Hong Kong PMI slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 6 months.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

Haikou city in China’s Hainan imposed a COVID lockdown for Thursday, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

Hong Kong PMI (Sep) 48.0 (Prelim. 51.2)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Aug) 8.3B vs. Exp. 10.1B (Prev. 8.7B)
Australian Exports (Aug) 3% (Prev. -10%); Imports (Aug) 4% (Prev. 5%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

Three stations in Canada as well: China has set up dozens of unofficial police stations around the world.

Simply awful!

China Has Set Up Dozens Of Unofficial Police Stations Around The World: Report

TUESDAY, OCT 04, 2022 – 10:25 PM

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has opened dozens of unofficial police stations around the world, including at least three in Toronto, Canada, according to a September report from human rights NGO, Safeguard Defenders.

The report claims that China has been engaging in “long-arm policing” around the world in what has been dubbed the “110 overseas police stations,” named after the police emergency number in China; 110.

The report has identified 54 Chinese overseas police stations spanning 30 countries – which are under the jurisdiction of two local-level police services in China; the Fuzhou Public Security Bureau in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, and the Qingtian County police in Zhejiang Province.

More via the Epoch Times;

Peter Dahlin, founder and director of Safeguard Defender and co-author of the report, says that following the release of his organization’s findings, security police or related government agencies from North America and Europe have approached his organization asking “to sit down and have a briefing discussion” on the Chinese operations overseas.

“So they are certainly aware of it, at least in some countries,” Dahlin told The Epoch Times.

More Locations

While the Chinese authorities say these police stations are created to better serve its overseas nationals, the report noted that those stations have been used to “persuade” up to 230,000 Chinese nationals to “voluntarily” return to China to face criminal proceedings between April 2021 and July 2022.

“Persuasion to return” is a key method of the Chinese regime’s “involuntary returns” operations, which include its “Operation Fox Hunt” and the broader “Sky Net” campaign, according to Safeguard Defenders. Many of the targets for persuasion to return were overseas Chinese allegedly involved in telecommunication fraud, though the report said a number of non-suspects and their family members in China have also been targeted for police harassment and intimation.

Dahlin said that in addition to the three stations in Toronto—two in Markham and one in Scarborough, whose locations were published in a Chinese state media outlet—there are likely other unofficial Chinese police stations either existing or being established in Canada, though they have yet to be discovered.

“We’ve also seen a [Chinese] government notice that said that 10 different provinces should launch these types of operations on a pilot basis,” he told The Epoch Times, pointing to the report’s citation of a July 5, 2018, news release issued by the Chinese regime.

“So, we have two of these operations uncovered [in Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province]. There might be eight more provinces doing this that could have their own stations, and we have not been able to track down that information yet. That’s why we keep saying that … we believe and we have good reason to think that there are more [overseas Chinese police stations].”

The news release is in relation to the Chinese State Council’s 2018 “Work Plan for the Supervision of the National Special Struggle Against Gang Crimes.” A Chinese state media reported in January 2019 that Beijing had conducted a first-round one-month supervision training from July to September 2018 in the 10 provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

Another report that year, in April 2019, said the regime had completed a second-round training for another 11 provinces, including Zhejiang Province where the Qingtian police service is located.

Given the large Chinese diaspora population in Vancouver, Dahlin noted that he would find it “very strange” if the city didn’t have at least one 110 police station.

‘Transnational Repression’

Safeguard Defenders says its September report is part of its ongoing monitoring of China’s growing global transnational repression. Dahlin said the report came on the heels of another report by his organization, titled “Involuntary Returns—report exposes long-arm policing overseas.”

That earlier report, published in January 2022, looked at the Chinese regime’s claim in December 2021 that its Sky Net operations, along with partner Operation Fox Hunt, have successfully brought some 10,000 “fugitives” back to China from around the globe since 2014, when Fox Hunt was launched as part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.

Those operations target what Dahlin described as “high-value targets.” Officially, Sky Net says it only targets economic criminals and officials accused of crimes like corruption or bribery, according to the Safeguard Defenders report, but Dahlin said Sky Net has been found to also target human rights defenders. Operations against high-value targets are run by the Chinese central police, whereas those involved in lower-level crimes like fraud—who are considered low-value targets—are tracked by the local Chinese police, Dahlin said.

“The most common method to do this is to persuade them to return ‘voluntarily.’ We’ve also had a number of cases where [Beijing] sent agents—Chinese police officers, undercover—to the target countries; we have a number of people in the U.S. being indicted for this,” he said.

A third way, Dahlin said, is to use kidnappings. He noted that his organization has identified 22 cases of kidnapping.

Although his organization hasn’t found any cases of direct kidnapping in Canada, Dahlin said that in Canada and the United States, the Chinese regime does “a lot more [of] sending secret agents to intimidate people and that type of operations.”

When asked about the severity of the Chinese overseas operations, Dahlin said the impacts on Canada is “certainly worse than Europe.”

“Canada has such a significant Chinese diaspora community—much bigger than pretty much all of Europe together—so certainly, there’s a lot more people at risk in Canada,” he said, adding that Canada, the United States, and Australia are “the big three” destinations when it comes to Chinese asylum-seekers and relocation.

end

CHINA/TAIWAN

ROBERT H.. TO US

Is it in the water ?

(COURTESY EPOCH TIMES)

This is going to be a disaster for the world as China will not acceptable this and if Taiwan attempts a military response you will see a conflict

ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC Taiwan Expands ‘1st Strike’ Definition, Will Retaliate Against CCP Air Incursions 0:00 Infinity:aN 1 Taiwan is expanding its definition of a “first strike” for the purposes of determining whether to militarily retaliate against Chinese aggression, according to a top defense official. The government of Taiwan now will consider significant incursions into its airspace by Chinese aircraft and drones to constitute a first strike in the same manner as a missile attack, defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told lawmakers on Oct. 5. Chiu said the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) recent aggression necessitated the expanded definition. He added that CCP crossings of the median line, the midpoint of the Taiwan Strait, are an effort to create a new norm for intimidation and harassment. “The median line was supposed to be a tacit agreement for everyone,” Chiu said. “That tacit agreement has been destroyed.” The median line was decided upon as a buffer zone by the United States in the 1950s as a means of de-escalating conflict between communist China and Taiwan. Since then, both sides generally have respected the boundary. Experience the best way to read The Epoch Times online. Try our free app for a limited time. However, in the past several months, CCP forces under Xi Jinping have initiated an aggressive campaign to “normalize” a military presence on Taiwan’s side of the waterway. MOST READ Election Software CEO Arrested Over Data Theft, Storing Data on Servers in China Read More Taiwan previously held that it wouldn’t strike militarily against China unless China struck first. Until now, that meant that CCP forces would need to strike the island with a missile. Chiu said on Oct. 5 that Taiwan would now respond to a broader range of threats. “We initially said we do not make the first strike … if they haven’t done the first strike, which means firing a projectile or a missile,” he said. “But the situation has obviously changed.” RELATED Former Officer Kills 38, Including 22 Children, in Thailand Day Care Rampage: Police “Of course, we have a red line,” he added. “We absolutely will respond.” Chiu also condemned the CCP for its efforts to unilaterally change the status quo through military force and intimidation and said that the Taiwanese people were prepared to defend themselves. “They want to build a new normal,” Chiu said. But “we will stand firm when they come. We do not give in.” Taiwan Will Defend De Facto Independence The CCP claims that Taiwan is a rogue province of China that must be united with the mainland by any means necessary. Its leadership has openly threatened to “start a war” to ensure that Taiwan’s independence isn’t internationally recognized. Taiwan has been a self-governing democracy since 1949 and has never been controlled by the CCP. Moreover, it boasts a thriving market economy and is the world’s leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors, which are used to build everything from pickup trucks to hypersonic missiles. In August, the CCP used a visit to Taiwan by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as a pretext to initiate unprecedented military drills. Those exercises included the firing of ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Taiwanese leadership has said that the exercises and the CCP’s ongoing military presence are preparation for an invasion of the island. Most Taiwanese reject the suggestion that the island should come under the control of the CCP, and the island has put up a spirited resistance to continued efforts to intimidate it into submission, such as the CCP’s campaign of air and sea incursions. To date, CCP forces have largely only made incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, in which aircraft are required to identify themselves to Taiwanese authorities. They haven’t launched a full incursion into the island’s airspace. Chiu’s comments indicate that if the CCP pursues such an aggressive course of action, Taiwan’s military could respond with lethal force up to and including a missile strike against the mainland.

Andrew Thornebrooke

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

EUROPE

Forecasters are predicting a colder winter and less renewable power

(zerohedge)

More Bad News For Europe: Forecasters Predict Colder Winter, Less Renewable Power

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Just days after we learned that Europe’s cell phone tower energy reserves will last 30 minutes during the upcoming mass blackouts, putting the entire European cellular system in jeopardy, the continent which will soon replace Russia with the US as its vassal master and energy sponsor, got even more bad news: according to Florence Rabier, director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), i.e., the European weather forecasting agency, early indications for November and December were for a period of high pressure over western Europe, which was likely to bring with it colder spells and less wind and rainfall, reducing the generation of renewable power.

This, as the FT translates, means that Europe could suffer a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, adding to the challenges for governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Needless to say, the forecast – which is based on data from the ECMWF and several other weather prediction systems including those in the UK, US, France and Japan – is a major problem for European politicians as they try to contain soaring energy costs for businesses and households owing to huge cuts in gas imports from Russia, and to moderate public anger and outrage at the coming freezing winter where Europe has somehow promised to cut demand by as much as 20% (nobody knows just how it will do that).

Adding insult to injury, however, is that Europe’s fascination with renewable energy will once again be a huge disappointment: “If we have this pattern then for the energy it is quite demanding because not only is it a bit colder but also you have less wind for wind power and less precipitation for hydro power,” Florence Rabier told the Financial Times.

Rabier said recent hurricanes across the Atlantic could cause milder, wetter and windier weather in the short term. But cooler weather later in the year would be consistent with the atmospheric conditions known as La Niña, a weather pattern derived from the cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, which drives changes in wind and rainfall patterns in different regions.

Of course, this could prove to be just another example of Europe being woefully wrong at forecasting, well, anything (just note the ECB’s track record). Weather in Europe is difficult to predict as the conditions are dictated by several remote factors including winds in the tropical stratosphere and surface pressure across the Atlantic.

In any case, there is a faint silver lining to Europe’s coming deep freeze: as Reuters’ reporter John Kemp reports, Europe is entering winter with a near-record volume of gas in storage after buying large volumes at almost any price over the summer to prepare for an interruption of supplies from Russia.

Gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU28) had climbed to 996 terawatt-hours (TWh) by Sept. 30, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). For the time of year, inventories were at the third highest on record, with higher volumes only in 2020 (1,074 TWh) and 2021 (1,067 TWh).

Storage had risen by around 700 TWh from its post-winter low, the second-fastest increase on record, as suppliers purchased as much gas as possible despite exceptionally high prices. As a result, stocks ended the summer refill season +98 TWh (+11% or +0.83 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year average.

This is a huge turnaround from the end of January, when they were -134 TWh (-23% or -1.34 standard deviations) below.

As Kemp forecasts, Inventories are likely to continue increasing for at least another three weeks until late October, but the build could persist into early November, depending on temperatures and how far high prices restrain consumption. Since 2011, the median date on which storage peaked was Oct. 26, but in two cases inventories continued rising into the first half of November.

Based on previous seasonal movements, storage is expected to peak around 1,025 TWh, with a likely range from 1,009 TWh to 1,053 TWh.

But the volume of gas in store is still increasing at an average rate of more than 2.3 TWh per day, implying it is likely to climb towards the top of the range.

Is it enough?

EU storage is more than 89% full and UK storage is more than 94% full, with extra stocks likely to be added over the next 3-6 weeks. Storage is well ahead of the formal target of 80% this year (preferably 85%) by Nov. 1 agreed by the EU in June (“Council adopts regulation on gas storage”, European Council, June 27).

According to Kemp, European governments have fulfilled their stated objective of maximizing the volume of gas in storage ahead of winter 2022/23 to reduce the impact of a disruption of pipeline supplies from Russia. But storage is intended to deal with seasonal variations in consumption, not provide a strategic reserve in case of an embargo or blockade.

Maximizing the volume of stored gas will alleviate the impact of any supply disruptions but it is not enough to guarantee supply security. In the event of a complete cessation of imports from Russia, a colder than normal winter such as the one forecast, or both, gas would become scarce before the end of March 2023.

Even if Europe scrapes through this winter, inventories are likely to end at very low levels, requiring another, perhaps even bigger, restocking next year ahead of winter 2023/24.

Bottom line: inventory accumulation has put Europe in a stronger position than at this time last year but regional supplies are still at risk which will require further action from the market and policymakers. Supply security depends critically on the ability to reduce consumption well below prior year levels – irrespective of temperatures and the level of heating demand. And if Europe has a truly cold winter, then all bets are off…

END

SWEDEN

Sweden braces for a winter of power shortages

(Nemzer/Remix)

Sweden Braces For A Winter Of Power Shortages

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 03:30 AM

By Magyar Nemzet of Remix news

Emergency scenarios are being prepared in Sweden in case of power cuts. The Scandinavian country has had a dry and windless summer, which has resulted in less electricity being produced from renewable energy, while its nuclear power plants are not ready to supply consumers. Meanwhile, the economic situation is worsening as inflation skyrockets and housing costs continue to rise.

Falling energy prices, a worsening economy, and a change of government have all contributed to the declining economic situation in Sweden, according to a recent study by the Hungarian Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation. Consumer inflation hit an all-time high in August, reaching 9.8 percent, the highest in 30 years. The biggest increases were in housing and transport costs.

The analysis points out that, unlike Hungary, Sweden did not seek to compensate energy and fuel prices, but cut taxes; however, this did not live up to expectations. The Swedish government expects the economy to slow further next year, with industrial production possibly stagnating.

Meanwhile, severe energy shortages loom. Emergency scenarios have already been drawn up.

The dry and windless summer has meant less electricity from renewable sources, and nuclear power plants are unable to supply the country.

In addition, with Russian gas cut off and oil exports stopped, Sweden is forced to buy from elsewhere, which increases the cost of electricity.

The state energy supplier is trying to prepare for the winter with austerity tips, for example, washing at night, installing LED light bulbs, and turning down the heating. They are also openly talking about the possibility of partial power cuts.

In this case, Swedes are asked to insulate windows, gather the whole family in a single room, and build a makeshift hut out of blankets.

“There are precise plans for the areas where supplies must be provided in all circumstances, for example, in hospitals, where a power cut would have serious consequences,” said Erik Ek, strategic operations director at state-owned utility Svenska Kraftnät.

The Moderate Party, which is about to form a new government, supports the expansion of nuclear power. They have already announced that they will spend 400 million Swedish krona (€36 million) on this, but it is certainly not a solution to the energy shortages expected this winter.

end

EU/IRAN

EU is ready to impose fresh Iran sanctions as protests enter its 3rd week and grow bolder.

(zerohedge)

EU Readying Fresh Iran Sanctions As Protests Grow Bolder

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 11:00 PM

In yet further confirmation that talks toward a restored JCPOA nuclear deal have completely unraveled, France says the European Union is eyeing new sanctions on top Iranian officials over the ongoing “anti-hijab” protests.

Multiple security officials could be targeted by the sanctions for leading a crackdown on protesters which has resulted in the deaths of over 130 Iranians, with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna telling lawmakers on Tuesday, “France’s action at heart of EU… (is) to target those responsible for the crackdown by holding them responsible for their acts.”

Colonna detailed this is likely to involve asset freezes and travel bans for the top security officials, due to their repeat human rights violations.

The protests, now in their third week, have been called unprecedented in size and numbers of cities impacted, now with universities becoming a battleground between demonstrators and police. The unrest began following the funeral 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody after being detained for improperly wearing her Islamic head-covering.

Among the early actions of the United States and Canada was to impose sanctions on Iran’s morality police and several officials leading law enforcement agencies – something which may be expanded by the EU sanctions.

Protests have clearly grown bolder in recent days, despite the severe crackdown by security forces…

President Biden said Monday in addressing the spiral situation that he’s “gravely concerned about reports of the intensifying violent crackdown on peaceful protestors in Iran, including students and women, who are demanding their equal rights and basic human dignity.” He also vowed more sanctions being prepared against Iranian officials.

Tehran, for its part, has blamed the US and Israel for planning and stoking the protests as part of efforts to fragment and ultimately overthrow the Islamic Republic. Recent statements by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the West’s regime change “schemes” won’t work.

Since near the start of the protests which have gripped dozens of cities and towns, crowds have chanted “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the dictator” while clashing with security forces, and also with allegations that police have used live ammunition to quell the demonstrations.

The White House has pledged to stand with the Iranian people, but as some skeptics have pointed out…

END

UK’s Braverman pledges that England will do whatever it takes to stop illegal immigration

(Zhou/EpochTimes)

UK’s Braverman Pledges ‘Whatever It Takes’ To Stop Illegal Immigration

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

British Home Secretary Suella Braverman on Tuesday vowed to do “whatever it takes” to stop illegal immigration across the English Channel.

In her first major speech as home secretary, Braverman told the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham that she wants to “cut [the] overall numbers” of immigration, adding the UK shouldn’t be “relying wholly on low skilled foreign workers.”

Invoking her own heritage as a second-generation immigrant, Braverman said her parents “embraced British values” and integrated into the community, which “didn’t mean abandoning their heritage.”

The home secretary said British people are “losing sight of the core values and the culture that made it so” and have been led “astray” by a combination of “unexamined drive towards multiculturalism as an end in itself” and “the corrosive aspects of identity politics.”

Channel Crossings

“We’ve got to stop the boats crossing the Channel,” Braver told the conference, referring to small boats carrying illegal immigrants who enter Britain by clandestinely crossing the English Channel from France.

According to Home Office figures, the number of people smuggled into the UK in small boats has soared in recent years, with 28,526 people detected in 2021, compared to 8,466 in 2020, 1,843 in 2019, and 299 in 2018.

By the end of September, some 32,807 people had made the perilous journey this year.

A group of illegal immigrants are brought in to Dover, England, by the RNLI, on Aug. 25, 2022. (Gareth Fuller/PA Media)

Braverman said there are “no quick fixes” to the “chronic” problem, pledging her “total and undeniable and unfettered and unconditional commitment to doing whatever it takes” to tackle the issue.

The home secretary said she would work with the French to ramp up actions on the French coastline and against people-smuggling gangs; find a way to make the Rwanda scheme work; get asylum seekers out of hotels, which she said costs £5 million a day; and “take back control” of the UK’s immigration policy from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).

People who “deliberately enter the United Kingdom illegally from a safe country” should be “swiftly returned” to their home country or relocated to Rwanda, she said.

Braverman’s predecessor Priti Patel signed a deal with Rwanda in April, allowing the UK to send illegal immigrants, including those who seek asylum, on a one-way flight to the African country.

But her first attempt to relocate people to Rwanda was frustrated by the ECHR in Strasbourg, which issued a last-minute injunction to ground the flight—a decision Patel said was made in an opaque way and was “politically motivated.”

Braverman praised Patel and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson for making the “groundbreaking” deal, saying the UK needs to “take back control” from the Strasbourg court.

She also said the UK’s modern slavery laws are “being abused by people gaming the system,” citing a 450 percent increase in modern slavery claims since 2014—many of which she said “are lies”—and anecdotes of foreign sex offenders blocking their removal by making modern slavery claims.

Braverman vowed to seek to introduce new legislation, saying, “UK policy on illegal migration should not be derailed by abuse of our modern slavery laws, Labour’s Human Rights Act, or orders of the Strasbourg Court,” and pledged to double down on enforcement.

Legal Immigration

Braverman also said she wants Britain to “cut overall numbers” in immigration, in an apparent departure from the previous government’s policy.

It comes after speculation that the government may loosen immigration rules for skilled immigrant workers to plug shortages in the labour market.

Braverman said there’s “absolutely no reason why we can’t train up enough of our own HGV drivers, or butchers, or fruit pickers,” adding, “The way we build a high-skilled, high-wage economy is by encouraging business to invest in capital and domestic labour, not relying wholly on low skilled foreign workers.”

Freight lorries queuing at the port of Dover in Kent, England, on Dec. 18, 2021. (Gareth Fuller/PA)

Earlier on Tuesday, Braverman said at a fringe event of the Conservative Party conference that it was her “ultimate aspiration” to fulfill the pledges of the Conservative governments under former Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron and reduce the number of net immigration to “tens of thousands.”

“I’m not going to commit to a number. I think we have got to definitely substantially reduce the number of students, the number of work visas, and in particular the number of dependents on those sorts of visas,” she said.

Ditching the previous Conservative government’s pledge to reduce immigration from “hundreds of thousands” to “tens of thousands,” Johnson campaigned on an “Australian-style” points-based immigration system in 2019.

Under the policy his government introduced, EU citizens could no longer move to the UK without visas from Jan. 1, 2021, but there was a liberalisation of immigration policies for skilled non-EU workers.

A record-high number of visas were granted in the year ending June 2022, but the size of post-Brexit net immigration is unknown, owing to an interruption of survey data collection during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Office for National Statistics’s (ONS’s) ongoing process of changing its estimation methods.

The latest ONS estimate said net immigration in the year ending June 2021 was around 239,000, slightly down from the year ending June 2020 (260,000), but these estimates were based on experimental methods and are subject to uncertainty.

In her main speech, which ended in a standing ovation, Braverman said it’s the “highest duties of [the] state” to keep British people safe and secure borders.

She pledged to tackle violent crime, voicing her support for the police while telling the forces to “get back to common-sense policing” instead of “pandering to identity politics.”

END

SWITZERLAND CREDIT SUISSE

They need money fast or trouble ahead

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Considering Outside Investor, IB Spinoff

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 09:46 AM

The ongoing – and potentially systemically threatening – saga of Credit Suisse took another turn this morning with Bloomberg reporting that the embattled bank is trying to bring in an outside investor to inject money into a spinoff of its advisory and investment banking businesses.

According to people with knowledge of the deliberations, Bloomberg says that talks on reviving the First Boston name for the spun-out businesses, which would get most of their revenue from the US, are also advancing.

A spinout of the dealmaking and underwriting unit would effectively break the troubled division into three pieces, with Credit Suisse keeping a shrunken trading unit while hiving off its securitized products group and other assets it wants to offload. And attracting outside investors would help answer how it will finance a major restructuring, questions that have weighed on the stock as the firm wants to avoid a share sale with the price near record lows.

Additionally, CS stock is up in the pre-market after JPMorgan upgraded to neutral from underweight, saying it sees $15b as a minimum value for the lender.

At the current valuation of 0.27x tangible book value and an $11b market cap, Credit Suisse “should look at every option available to avoid a significantly dilutive capital increase,” JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein wrote, adding that he doesn’t see a capital increase as a given outcome. Instead he sees two scenarios, both of which would lead to material long-term revaluation: Either,

1) the lender does a decisive restructuring of its investment banking business and focuses on being more of an asset gathering geared entity, or

2) it does a ‘half-hearted’ IB restructuring, in which case M&A speculation would increase.

For now, expect shares to remain volatile and headline driven.

While both CDS and stock prices are improving in the pre-market (lower spread and higher price respectively), there is still a considerable decoupling between the two this week…

Bigger picture, the equity market (green line below) is far more optimistic about the future state of CS than the credit market (red line)…

We look forward to another reassuring letter from the CEO this weekend.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//USA/

Interesting: the USA National Guard is gives service members the COVID 19 vaccine instead of the influenza shot in 2021

Nobody should be taking the influenza shot

(Stieber EpochTimes)

National Guard Gives Service Members COVID-19 Vaccine Instead Of Influenza Shot

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The National Guard administered the COVID-19 vaccine to multiple service members who were lined up for the influenza vaccine, including a member who objected to the COVID-19 vaccine on religious grounds, according to officials and one of the members.

The incident took place in late 2021.

During a vaccination clinic where both flu and COVID-19 vaccines were being administered, “three service members were accidently given a COVID vaccine,” Maj. Carl Lamb, a spokesman for the Maine National Guard, told The Epoch Times in an email.

Mathew Bouchard, who is no longer with the Guard, has identified himself as one of the members.

Bouchard said he was ordered to receive an annual flu vaccine and went to the clinic to get that vaccine. He verified his name, date of birth, and part of his social security number, and told officials at the clinic he was there for the flu vaccine. But he was injected with a dose of a messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccine, officials told him.

“‘You know how you went in for the flu shot? Well, that wasn’t a flu shot. That was a COVID-19 vaccine,’” Bouchard told The Epoch Times, recounting the meeting with superiors.

“I think, in my mind, at that point, it was like, I completely didn’t know if I trusted any people in the military,” he added.

Religious Objections

Each branch of the military ordered members to get vaccinated, after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a Biden appointee, in August of 2021 directed them to do so.

Under federal law, medical and religious exemptions can be sought. The military has been using form letters with striking similarities to deny many religious exemption requests, federal judges have found, and several branches are blocked from taking punitive action against religious objectors.

Bouchard says he was pursuing a religious exemption due to his Christian faith when he was injected with a vaccine against his will. At the time, he only had several months left before his enlistment was over.

Bouchard believes the vaccine mixup was intentional, noting how the military has aggressively tried to pressure members to get vaccinated. The purpose would be to get members to re-enlist, he thinks.

“I think what they did was they thought soldiers who don’t want it and they accidentally get it are just going to come around and continue their service. So I feel like that was a way to vaccinate people,” Bouchard said.

Newly Obtained Emails Shed More Light On CDC’s False Vaccine Safety Monitoring Statements

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 02:25 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Newly obtained emails show the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) made a false statement on COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring in 2021, months before agency officials gave false statements on the matter to The Epoch Times.

The emails also show top officials in the agency discussing performing safety monitoring on a key database for myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation that has been linked to the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.

The CDC promised in 2021 in a set of operating procedures to perform a type of analysis called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) on reports of adverse reactions following COVID-19 vaccination. The reports are submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which officials have described as “the nation’s early warning system” for post-vaccination adverse events. The CDC also said in an updated set of operating procedures in 2022 that it would perform the analysis.

But the CDC has made false statements three times this year on PRRs, initially saying such analysis was outside the agency’s purview, then saying the analysis was performed starting in 2021, then saying the analysis did not begin until 2022. The newly obtained emails show that an official falsely said the CDC does not perform PRR analysis to an editor in 2021.

John Gregory, a health editor at NewsGuard, wrote to the CDC on Oct. 19, 2021, asking for a comment regarding a claim that the CDC’s PRR analysis cannot accurately identify when a vaccine causes adverse events, one of the emails shows. Martha Sharan, a CDC spokeswoman, sent the query to Dr. John Su, who leads the CDC’s VAERS team, and Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, who also works on vaccine safety.

Their responses were redacted apart from a comment on NewsGuard. Sharan then wrote that she’d spoken to Gregory.

“I spoke to the reporter and explained that CDC does not do PPR analysis. The reporter is not going to pursue this any further!” she wrote, adding later that she meant PRR.

That contradicts the operating procedures, which state that the CDC “will perform Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) analysis” on VAERS reports.

“We let our published content speak for itself,” Gregory told The Epoch Times in an email when notified that the CDC does actually perform PRRs.

‘That’s a New One to Me’

In June 2022, the CDC falsely told Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit, that PRR analysis is “outside of th[e] agency’s purview.” An Associated Press reporter, Angelo Fichera, flagged a Children’s Health Defense article on the statement to the CDC, asking whether the CDC had ever performed the analysis, according to the newly obtained emails.

Kristen Nordlund, another CDC spokeswoman, forwarded the query to Sharan. “Martha—thoughts on this one?” she asked.

“That’s a new one on me—proportional reporting ratios’—I need to send this one to John,” Sharan responded.

Sharan later sent a statement about PRRs to The Associated Press and the Washington Examiner.

The Associated Press and NewsGuard never published stories on the topic. After The Epoch Times reported on contradictory statements from the CDC, the Examiner published an article about the developments.

Fichera, Sharan, and Su did not respond to requests for comment for this article.

The emails were obtained by The Epoch Times and an independent researcher through FOIA requests.

“The CDC claims to be vigilantly and transparently monitoring the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, but when it comes to Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) analysis, the CDC’s broken promises, inconsistent statements, stonewalling, and double standards tell a different story,” Mary Holland, president and general counsel of Children’s Health Defense, told The Epoch Times via email.

“When asked about PRR analysis in connection with COVID vaccines—through FOIA, media, and congressional requests—CDC has made conflicting statements, some of them false. When confronted about the statements, the CDC claimed, essentially, that PRR analysis is not worth doing. And for the few months of PRR the CDC now says it has completed, the CDC has failed to make the results public, despite requests from multiple sources.”

“Children’s Health Defense calls on the CDC to do the right thing: do the analysis, and make the results available,” she added.

Timeline of CDC emails and statements. Some are being reported for the first time in this story, which continues below.

“I spoke to the reporter and explained that CDC does not do PPR analysis. The reporter is not going to pursue this any further!” – Martha Sharan to CDC colleagues, Oct. 19, 2021. (source: FOIA response to independent researcher)
“Correction – that should say PRR.” – Martha Sharan to CDC colleagues, Oct. 19, 2021. (FOIA response to independent researcher)
“[P]rogram staff within the Immunization and Safety Office inform me that no PRRs were conducted by CDC. Furthermore, data mining is outside of th[e] agency’s purview.” – Roger Andoh, June 16, 2022. (letter to Children’s Health Defense)
“That’s a new one on me – proportional reporting ratios’ – I need to send this one to John.” – Martha Sharan to CDC colleagues, June 22, 2022 (FOIA response to The Epoch Times)
“[P]rogram staff within the Immunization and Safety Office inform me that no PRRs were conducted by CDC. Furthermore, data mining is outside of the agency’s purview.” – Bruno Viana to Roger Andoh, June 30, 2022 (FOIA response to The Epoch Times)
“CDC has been performing PRRs since Feb 2021, and continues to do so to date.” – Dr. John Su, July 18, 2022 (statement to The Epoch Times)
“CDC has revisited several FOIA requests and as a result of its review CDC is issuing corrections. … In reference to Proportional Reporting Ratios (PRRs) – CDC performed PRRs from March 25, 2022 through July 31, 2022.” – Martha Sharan, Aug. 8, 2022. (statement to The Epoch Times)
“CDC performed PRR analysis between March 25, 2022, through July 31, 2022. CDC also recently addressed a previous statement made to the Epoch Times to clarify PRR were not run between February 26, 2021, to September 30, 2021.” – Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Sept. 12, 2022 (letter to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.))

Other Emails

Several other messages add to the timeline of the CDC’s internal and external statements regarding PRR.

Two weeks after Andoh falsely told Children’s Health Defense that data mining is outside of the CDC’s purview, Bruno Viana, a CDC records employee, sent emails to Andoh about the response.

Viana quoted word-for-word portions of the letter that Andoh sent to the group.

The context of the emails is unclear.

An email to Viana requesting more information returned an away message. The CDC records office declined to comment, saying a new FOIA request would be necessary to obtain the information.

Another set of internal emails showed Su and Shimabukuro involved in responding to The Associated Press and the Washington Examiner.

“With the above background, I might suggest the following response,” Su said in one heavily redacted email.

“John’s edits look fine to me. Thanks,” Shimabukuro later wrote.

And other emails featured Su and Sharan talking to and about The Epoch Times’ queries, including a followup query noting that an initial response did not make clear whether the CDC had, in fact, performed PRRs.

Su was attributed with the false statement that the CDC had started PRRs in February 2021. One of the missives indicates the statement did come from him. That portion of the email is redacted, but the length of the text aligns with the actual response.

Analysis on Myocarditis

Clinical trials for the vaccines turned up no evidence of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, or a related condition called pericarditis. But real-world evidence of the conditions began emerging in early 2021.

Cargo Shipowners Cancel Sailings, Container Spot Rates Plunge Amid Reversal In ‘Bullwhip-Effect’

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 09:00 PM

In May, we outlined that a reversal of the “shortage of everything” bullwhip effect was nearing, as skyrocketing inventories (the result of Covid-era overordering due to snarled supply chains) was about to hit a faltering economy, and prices of goods would decline as companies would be forced to liquidate excess inventories into a recession (see “Bullwhip Effect Ends With A Bang: Why Prices Are About To Fall Off A Cliff” from May 23). We reminded readers about this a few times over the summer (“Bullwhip-Effect Reversal Is The Major Downside Growth Risk” and “Container Rates Slump As “Bullwhip Effect” Enters Terminal Phase“).

Last week, the reverse bullwhip was apparent in Nike’s ‘shocking‘ quarterly report after shares plunged more than 10% following the announcement of deteriorating earnings, and the margin outlook for the year was slashed. We warned retailers building inventory at a rapid clip this year was going to be disastrous, which is precisely what the sportswear giant reported.

It’s not just Nike. Across the board, retailers are dealing with multi-decade highs in the inventory-to-sales ratio, which has caused importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.

Reduced demand fo foreign goods has led to an increase in container lines canceling dozens of sailings in some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes ahead of the year’s biggest shopping season.

WSJ pointed out, “the October cancellations are a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, when scarce shipping space pushed freight rates higher and carriers’ profits to record levels.”

Trans-Pacific shipping rates are cratering. The Shanghai-Los Angeles freight rate for containers has plunged a whopping 73% since peaking this time last year.

WSJ cited data that showed for the first two weeks beginning on Oct. 3, about 40 scheduled sailings between Asia and US West Coast were canceled. On average, there are about 2-4 sailings a week scrapped for this time of year.

Carriers have also canceled key shipping routes between Asia and Europe:

“In the first week of October, one-third of previously announced capacity will be blanked and for the second week, it will be around half.

“The downturn pace in recent weeks has been very fast and it looks like carriers misread the low volumes of a nonexistent peak season,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping-data providers Xeneta and Sea-Intelligence.

“The global economy has thrown a few curveballs this year, and our outlook on future demand is uncertain and tepid. Overcapacity will likely become an issue from the middle of 2023 through to 2024 and potentially beyond,” said Jonathan Roach, a container analyst at Braemar.

Last month, FedEx Corp.’s CEO Raj Subramaniam delivered a chilling message while speaking with CNBC’s Mad Money with Jim Crammer: The global economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

Besides the terminal phase of the bullwhip effect resulting in retailers liquidating excess inventory, it has also produced a harsh environment for shippers canceling sailings that have sent container rates plunging.

END

However, LBG shipping rates are escalating at 500,000 dollars per day. Europe is being destroyed with these high costs

(Miller/Freightwaves)

LNG Shipping Rates “Shooting For The Stars” At $500,000 Per Day

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 07:20 PM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

On Sept. 26, Pareto analyst Eirik Haavaldsen predicted that liquefied natural gas shipping rates could top $1 million per day in the fourth quarter. At least some deals are already halfway there, according to a report on Monday.

Paying a million a day may sound crazy. But it all comes down to the profit a shipper can make on a cargo. If a shipper can make $200 million in profits moving a single shipload of LNG, it will pay six figures a day in freight. Or if Pareto is right, seven.

New high for LNG shipping rates

It’s not even winter yet and short-term LNG shipping rates are already in record territory, not just for LNG shipping but for any commercial shipping sector ever. And these rates are expected to keep climbing.

Clarksons Securities put average voyage rates for the most efficient LNG carriers — those with two-stroke propulsion known as MEGI or XDF carriers — at $313,000 per day as of Monday. Benchmark tri-fuel, diesel engine (TFDE) carrier rates were assessed at $276,700 per day.

“LNG carriers are shooting for the stars. Spot earnings have reached dizzying heights,” Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal wrote. “According to brokers, owners can now achieve three-way economics, which means they are compensated not just for a regular round voyage but also for positioning voyages. As a result, earnings on a round-trip basis might be around $500,000 a day.”

Even without the three-way economics, voyage charter rates are soaring.

S&P Global Commodity Insights told American Shipper that over the past week, the LNG carrier Yiannis was reportedly fixed to Shell at $400,000 per day for an intra-Atlantic Basin voyage and the Schneeweisschen was booked for early November at $360,000 per day by India’s GAIL.

War effect

Rates have gone into the $300,000s per day on occasion in the past two winters. But the current market situation is unprecedented. Gas supplier Russia is at war, it has shut off supplies to Germany, and someone just sabotaged two pipelines in the Baltic.

The number of LNG ships available for spot deals is exceptionally limited. As a result, the spot market is extremely thin. Almost all of the world’s LNG fleet is locked up on on long-term charters. In the past, more of those vessels may have been “relet” into the spot market to take advantage of skyrocketing rates. This time around, the profits from buying and selling the cargo itself is more attractive.

According to Mørkedal, “Brokers note that charterers and holding onto tonnage instead of subletting due to the exceptionally high cargo profits, which makes the optionality of having a vessel ready more lucrative than subletting the vessel in the spot market.”

Meanwhile, more ship capacity is getting tied up with floating storage. “From the beginning of October until the end of November, LNG cargo markets have a strong contango structure of $10 per million Btu,” Morkedal explained. “This is increasing interest in floating storage. A large number of laden LNG carriers are now reportedly waiting offshore of southern Europe as a result.”

The upper limits of spot rates

Extraordinarily high day rates have been seen in multiple bulk commodity shipping markets through the years.

Rates for very large crude carriers reached $200,000 per day in the fall 2019 and spring 2020. Rates for Capesize bulkers reportedly surpassed $200,000 per day in June 2008.

In container shipping, spot freight rates topped $30,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit last year. That’s around 30 times as high as rates during some years pre-COVID. It sparked an outcry among containerized cargo shippers, leading to accusations that rates were “unfair” and represented “price gouging.”

In bulk commodity shipping — which has far more experience with rate spikes caused by supply-demand imbalances — there is no such pushback. When the freight rate reaches the point where it erases the profit margin on the commodity cargo, the shipper simply refuses to book the trip.

Asked how high product tanker rates could theoretically go, Hafnia Tankers CEO Mikael Skov told attendees at the Capital Link New York Maritime Forum on Sept. 21, “Once you have full utilization, there’s nothing that prevents rates to go to any level, other than if freight becomes so much of the total that it kills it. There’s really no cap until the freight becomes really, really high.”

Scorpio Tankers President Robert Bugbee noted that his company fixed tankers on individual voyages this summer at over $100,000 per day “and not one time have we had phone calls from the heads of BP or Shell ringing up and saying, ‘What the hell are you doing screwing our guys over?’”

END

This is your most important read of the day. Our expert Pepe Escobar lays out who sabotaged the Gazprom one and two and how Russia will fight back against the west

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: The Whole Chessboard Is About To Be Radically Changed

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 12:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

There’s no question that future unbiased historians will rank Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address on the Return of the Baby Bears – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – on September 30 as a landmark inflection point of the Raging Twenties.

The underlying honesty and clarity mirror his speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, but this time largely transcending the trappings of the geopolitical New Great Game.

This was an address to the collective Global South. In a key passage, Putin remarked how “the world has entered a period of revolutionary transformations, which are fundamental in nature. New development centers are being formed, they represent the majority.”

As he made the direct connection between multipolarity and strengthening of sovereignty, he took it all the way to the emergence of a new anti-colonial movement, a turbocharged version of the Non-Aligned Movement of the 1960s:

“We have many like-minded people all over the world, including in Europe and the United States, and we feel and see their support. A liberating, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is already developing in various countries and societies. Its subjectivity will only grow. It is this force that will determine the future geopolitical reality.”

Yet the speech’s closure was all about transcendence – in a spiritual tone. The last full paragraph starts with “Behind these words stands a glorious spiritual choice”.

Post-post-modernism starts with this speech. It must be read with utmost care so its myriad implications may be grasped. And that’s exactly what tawdry Western spin and a basket of demeaning adjectives will never allow.

The speech is a concise road map to how we got to this incandescent historical crossroads – where, to venture beyond Gramsci, the old order refuses to acknowledge its death while the new one is inexorably being born.

There’s no turning back. The key consequence of a largely documented fact – “a hybrid war is being waged against Russia because it stands in the way of the neocolonial world order” – is that Russia is getting ready for an all-out collision with the Empire of Lies.

Alongside top Eurasian powers China and Iran. Imperial vassals in this case are at best collateral damage.

Moreover, it’s quite telling that Putin’s speech followed India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, stressing the “pillaging of India by the colonial power” at the UN General Assembly.

Putin’s speech and Russia’s resolve to fight the – hybrid and otherwise – war against the collective West set up the Macro Picture.

The Micro Picture regards the see-saw in the battlefields in Ukraine, and even the blow-up of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines: a desperate gambit, a few days before the result of the referendums and their official recognition on September 30.

Where’s Osama when we need him?

As working hypotheses swirl on how the deed was done, a few things are quite clear.

Russia had absolutely no motive to destroy billions of dollars of Gazprom’s energy infrastructure: they could always use it as leverage; and they could just turn it off – as they did, because of the sanctions dementia – and re-route the gas to Asian customers.

A White House “led” by a senile teleprompter reader, mired in a black politico-economic void, was most certainly clueless.

The prime suspect is a rogue National Security/State Department faction – part of what is known in the Beltway as The Blob. Call them Straussians or neo-con fanatics, these are the players who are conducting a US foreign “policy” whose central premise is the destruction of Russia – with the European “allies” as collateral damage.

An inevitable – certainly unforeseen – consequence is that in this new twist in the War of Economic Corridors, all bets are off: no pipeline or undersea cable, anywhere in the world, is now safe and may become fair game in retaliation.

So the blow-up of the twin pipes – NS and NS2 – is 9/11 remixed Pipeline Terror. With no Islamist with a Kalashnikov hiding in an Afghan cave to take the fall.

Financial losses will involve quite a few weighty players. The shareholders of Nord Stream AG are Gazprom (51%); Wintershall Dea AG (15.5%); PEG Infrastruktur AG, a subsidiary of E.ON Beteiligungen (15.5%); N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie (9%) and Engie (9%).

So this is an attack not only against Russia and Germany but also against major European energy companies.

NS2 is an engineering marvel: over 200,000 pipe segments coated with 6” of concrete, each weighing 22 tons, laid out on the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

And just when it seemed that all was lost, well, not really. The engineering marvel theme resurfaced: the pipes are so strong they were not broken, but merely punctured. Gazprom revealed there’s an intact string of NS2 that may “potentially” be used.

The bottom line is that reconstruction is possible, as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stressed: “There are technical possibilities to restore the infrastructure, it requires time and appropriate funds. I am sure that appropriate opportunities will be found.”

But first, Russia wants to conclusively identify the perpetrators.

Henry Kissinger, sore loser

US establishment oracle cum notorious war criminal, Henry Kissinger, could not get rid of his trademark Return of the Living Dead act, saying Russia has “already lost the war” because its capacity to threaten Europe with conventional attacks, which it had enjoyed for decades or even centuries, “has now been demonstrably overcome.”

Moscow was not “threatening” Europe with anything conventional or otherwise; it was trying to do business, and the Americans blocked it with a vengeance, even resorting to Pipeline Terror.

This American tactical victory was achieved in only seven months, and cost next to nothing. The results may seem impressive: US hegemony over the whole EU spectrum is now undisputed, as Russia lost its economic leverage. But that will only deepen Moscow’s resolve –as stressed by Putin’s speech – to take the fight against the Empire and its vassals to the limit.

On the Ukraine battlefields, that means forcing them to the negotiating table on Russia’s terms. And then force them to agree to a new European “indivisibility of security” arrangement.

And to think that all that could have been accomplished with a simple phone call in late 2021, when Moscow sent letters to Washington proposing a serious discussion.

In fact, it’s the US that has “already lost the war”: at least 87% of the world – including virtually the whole Global South – has already concluded this is a rogue, rudderless empire.

“Losing”, Kissinger-style, also means that in only 7 months, Russia annexed 120,000 km2 – or 22% of Ukrainian territory – that produces nearly 90% of GDP and has over 5 million citizens. Along the way, the allied forces basically destroyed the Ukrainian army, which they continue to do 24/7; billions of dollars of NATO equipment; accelerated the demise of most Western economies; and evaporated the notion of American hegemony.

As for Stupidistan Unplugged, the Oscar goes to Secretary Blinken, who gave away the game by saying the blow-up of the twin pipelines was a “tremendous strategic opportunity”.

Just like 9/11 was a “tremendous strategic opportunity” for indiscriminate invasion/bombing/killing/plunder across the lands of Islam.

Shock’n Awe is back

The EU is on the way to surefire Trade Devastation.

From now on, any possibility of energy trade with Russia would have to be a consequence of the collapse of both NATO and the EU. That may happen, but it will take time. So what next?

The EU cannot rely on Asia: far away and impossibly expensive in terms of LNG liquefaction and re-gasification costs.

Any pipeline – for instance, from Kazakhstan – would be crossing Russia or coming from China via Russia. Forget about Turkmenistan; it already ships its gas to China.

The EU cannot rely on West Asia.

Turk Stream is fully booked. The whole production of the Persian Gulf is already bought. If – and that’s a major “if” – there was more gas available, it would be a small amount from Azerbaijan (and Russia might disrupt it). Iran remains sanctioned by the Empire – a fabulous own goal. Iraq and Syria are still plundered by the US.

That leaves Africa – where, as it stands, France is being unceremoniously kicked out, nation after nation. Italy may eventually pipe gas to German industry from Algeria, Libya and the Cyprus-Israel fields. There will be an absolutely mad scramble for Saharan gas fields and gas in central Africa – from Uganda to South Sudan.

The Baltic may be a NATO lake, but Russia could easily decide to make waves, for instance transporting LNG in barges to German ports via Kaliningrad – which is ice-free during winter. If Lithuania would try to block it, Mr. Khinzal could settle the issue by presenting his business card. Russia could also use the Gulf of Finland, not a problem for those massive Russian icebreakers.

This means Russia could easily destroy the competition – as in absurdly expensive LNG coming from the US.

After all, St. Petersburg to Hamburg is only about 800 nautical miles; and from Kaliningrad, only 400 nautical miles.

The whole chessboard is about to be radically changed before the arrival of General Winter. 9/11 led to the bombing, invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. Pipeline 9/11 is leading to a Shock’n Awe on NATO – to take place in Ukraine. Blowback is back – with a vengeance.

end

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

China has set up police stations in Canada? Is this real? “Unofficial Chinese Police Stations in Canada Likely Number More Than 3”; Chinese regime has established more unofficial overseas police

The report, titled “110 Overseas: Chinese Transnational Policing Gone Wild,” identified 54 Chinese overseas police stations in 30 countries, including 3 in Toronto. Then the question is, WHY?

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6

▷ LISTEN SAVE

‘While the Chinese authorities say these police stations are created to better serve its overseas nationals, the report noted that those stations have been used to “persuade” up to 230,000 Chinese nationals to “voluntarily” return to China to face criminal proceedings between April 2021 and July 2022.

end

Not so fast Dr. Fauci: “Fauci admits he should have been ‘more careful’ on pandemic messaging”; ‘messaging’? Little man, you are a criminal, Lara Logan is right, he is the ‘Mengele’ & Hess of our time

we need Fauci in docket, under oath, & proper legal inquiry, judge etc., & you must be jailed & all your money taken, pension, all, if shown you killed people, you & all like you must be investigated

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Such a weasel, a slimy weasel, this guy, this bench pipetting scientist had no role leading the pandemic response and he killed people with his lockdown lunacy and his remdesivir lunacy and all of his lunacy with Birx. These two. Every single statement he made was wrong, and we blame Trump for not firing him. To now subject us to this malfeasant trying to rewrite his devastating actions? He seems to not know there is a track record. Every word and action.

Yes, Lara Logan is right, he is the Mengele of our time.

END

Open in browser Israeli report: “the mRNA experimental vaccine from Pfizer killed “about 40 times more (elderly) people than the disease itself would have killed” during a recent five-week vaccination period”

Haim Yativ and Dr. Seligmann declare that for them, “this is a new Holocaust,” in face of Israeli authority pressure to vaccinate citizens; Pfizer and Bourla did this to Israel, a 2021 ‘KILLING FIELDS
Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6 ▷ LISTEN SAVE
A re-analysis

of published data from the Israeli Health Ministry by Dr. Hervé Seligmann, a member of the faculty of Medicine Emerging Infectious and Tropical Diseases at Aix-Marseille University, and engineer Haim Yativ reveal, in short, that the mRNA experimental vaccine from Pfizer killed “about 40 times more (elderly) people than the disease itself would have killed” during a recent five-week vaccination period. Among the younger class, these numbers are compounded to death rates at 260 times what the COVID-19 virus would have claimed in the given time frame.
’SOURCE 1:

This sub variant BA 4.6 is gaining on BA 5 and a little more deadly

(Paul Alexander)

Omicron sub-variant clade BA.4.6 is apparently gaining ground on BA.5, now at roughly 13%.

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 6

▷ LISTEN SAVE

END
Open in browser Could the rise in deaths we recorded from February 2020 NOT have been due to the virus but due to the way frail elderly & poor persons were TREATED with morphine, Remdesivir, midazolam, ventilation?Thus could it be that virus was around us for 2 years prior yet powers at be, for their dark reasons, in February 2020 ‘detected’ it with fraud PCR to them sedate & ventilate, causing massive deaths?Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 5 ▷ LISTEN SAVE Did we and the right public health officials disregard all the history about coronavirus and respiratory infections and illness as it pertained to COVID-19? Why?I am trying to argue that the rise in deaths we saw post February 2020 is not due to novel new virus circulating, and yes, our frail elderly were dying principally, bit that the virus was always circulating, and we had massive background natural immunity already, cross-reactive etc. It was not the first time our immune systems had seen this pathogen GLOBALLY. What changed was the use of the PCR test to now ‘detect’ it, but it was always there. That was a fraud step as part of this great disaster. So now we are detecting it and then medicalizing everyone and place our elderly parents and frail ‘IMMUNO-SENESCENCE’ grand parents into nursing homes where the COVID protocol was implemented in mass e.g.1)admit2)declare COVID positive with flawed over-cycled PCR false positive test (beyond cycle count thresholds of 24 to 25 that then detects viral dust and fragments and NOT infectious pathological virus), so now they are COVIDized3)sedate with diamorphine and midazolam4)restrain and intubate then ventilate5) administer the deadly standard of care ‘REMDESIVIR; that is liver and kidney toxic6)then the persons dies and the hospitals collect $500,000 from the governmentIn other words, were the spikes in deaths NOT due to COVID virus, but more so due to the handling of the patient, how they were treated in the medical system?

VACCINE IMPACT/

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A MUST READ.

EVERY IS BANG ON!

“OPEC’s Action Is Testimony To A Staggering US Geopolitical And Geoeconomic Error”

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 10:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday was all about oil, geopolitics, and geostrategic errors; and, in the background, domestic politics, accepting past errors, and trying to make amends for them. Ironically, it all happened on Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement, which back in 1973 jump-started a Middle East war, and then the energy crisis that led to the collapse of the post-WW2 Western political-economy model, and ushered in global neoliberalism.

OPEC+ lined up with Russia to slash output by 2m barrels a day from November and through 2023, pushing energy prices up, and seeing a slew of calls for oil to again top $100 in the near future. That was as US gasoline inventory data dropped 4.7m barrels to the lowest level since November 2014 despite apparent demand destruction.

The White House response was furious. The official statement said President Biden was “disappointed by the short-sighted decision” to cut production. The White House Press Secretary accused OPEC+ of “aligning with Russia” Off the record the response was probably blunter given such a cut had been flagged as a “hostile act”. Yet Saudi Arabia’s message to the White House also couldn’t have been blunter.

The Saudis have moved from swing producers who help the US at times of trouble to ones who cut to keep prices high; under a leader building Western-style tourist resorts and holding raves(!) That’s testimony to a staggering US geopolitical and geoeconomic error, compounded by its multi-layered domestic energy policy failures. The longer-term question is if it will prove to be the same kind of massive error for OPEC+ to have made itself a geostrategic problem for the US.

The near-term US policy responses underway are to double down on what is not working:

Another 10m barrels will be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is not bottomless, and may be needed in a geopolitical emergency at some point.
To “explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term.” But there is no immediate private-sector response possible if the longer-term outlook is still to shut fossil fuels down.
Calling on US energy companies to bring pump prices down by closing the historically large gap between wholesale and retail gas prices – which is already slim for most retailers.
To consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices. This is even whispered to include the so-called NOPEC bill floated in 2007 but never enacted, which is designed to remove the state immunity shield and allow the international oil cartel, OPEC, and its national oil companies, to be sued under US antitrust law for anti-competitive attempts to limit the world’s supply of petroleum.
To accelerate the clean energy transition, without the minerals or supply chains to do so, by increasing “reliance on American-made and American-produced clean energy and energy technologies”.
Despite the White House’s Kirby talking about ‘reducing dependence on foreign oil production’, the Wall Street Journal reports the ‘US Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil’: so a tiny gain in oil and a massive loss of deterrent power and loss of face.

Do you see the geopolitical and geoeconomic tectonic plates shifting? Do you see how this influences markets? If not, you are in the wrong game.

No Fed pivot is possible against a backdrop where oil prices march higher on supply destruction in response to demand destruction as monetary policy is tightened. The Fed’s Daly and Bostic both made that clear yesterday –“no cuts in 2023”– but the geopolitics does the work for them if you choose to see it. Indeed, that backdrop, together with decent ADP employment and the ISM non-manufacturing report, saw bond yields up as a result: US 2s were up from 4.08% to 4.19% before closing at 4.14%; 10s were up from 3.62% to 3.78% before closing at 3.74%.

So to further atonement.

Some draw comparisons between Biden, who has apparently decided to run again in 2024, and Carter. Both preside(d) over soaring inflation led by energy prices. So did Nixon, whose problems started with the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the massive, deliberate, geopolitical supply-destruction-led surge in oil prices that followed it.

Carter tried to get US hostages out of Iran by force, and failed, while the Arab press reports Biden is about to send $7bn to a cash-strapped Tehran regime failing to keep its own people under control as a quid pro quo for the release of two US hostages.

But more importantly, Carter, a progressive, started the US neoliberal journey, while Biden, far less of a progressive, has appointed figures determined to take policy in a less Borkian (“bigger is always better”) direction. And while Nixon ‘went to China’, Biden is going back home.

As journalist @lhfang argues of the US, “There’s a consensus around a desire for an economy that is less dominated by the rich and special interests, less monopoly power, less greed and mindless consumerism. You see this sentiment on the left and right, but there’s no clear language to describe this sentiment.” To which area expert Matt Stoller replies, “The anti-monopoly movement spans both parties, and is changing policy on trade and antitrust. There isn’t yet a shared political language.”

Recall what I have been arguing about our need for an ideological “-ism” that explains what to do in a chaotic world where nothing works the way it used to? And how until you settle on one, you have difficulty moving ahead with the policy you need to see? In the interim we will continue to get starkly different responses that won’t work… as we see on the combination of US energy and foreign policy.

In the long run, the “-ism” that will work best for the US is going to be a dressed up, watered down version of mercantilism. Even the green energy policies it is promoting are that.

In the UK, we see the opposite reaction to the failure of the consensus: fundamentalism – of the neoliberal variety. (Such an impulse is often the case with religions like neoliberalism.)

PM GaLizriel gave a Party Conference speech in which she said ~~“I have a Tempest in me!”~~ she would get the UK “through the Tempest”. Well, someone is using magic to conjure a storm and torment the survivors of a shipwreck, as happens in the Shakespeare play of the same name. Her key policy pitch was: “I’m not going to tell you what to do, or what to think or how to live your life. I’m not interested in how many two-for-one offers you buy at the supermarket.” So, we will fight a geopolitical and geoeconomic war individually, fuelled by biscuits: how empoweringly British!

In Europe, there is still not enough atonement. Germany’s Economic Minister came close to accusing the US and other allies of “war-profiteering” over the prices at which it is selling them LNG to keep them warm this winter. As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas points out, Europe is outbidding poorer, Asian buyers for LNG to compensate for its own enormous geostrategic and energy policy errors, so far less well-off people are suffering for it: and yet it still has the temerity to suggest it should be given ‘mates’ rates’ to ease its own pain.

Things also do not sit well within the EU either over Germany’s EUR200bn energy subsidy, on top of their previous EUR65bn subsidy. Rather than planning one EU ‘war economy’ with rationing, we instead face 27 rival European war economies all fighting each other for market share. Germany is saying its deeper pockets, the product of having benefitted most from the euro, mean it can out-subsidise its energy-uncompetitive industry while everyone else in Europe loses theirs. Is it any surprise that following the lead of Italy, Spain and Belgium are both warning of risks to the Single Market from such German actions?

The same is true if the ECB steps in to help along some of the lines being muttered about: if it is going to keep its balance sheet constant by selling some assets (i.e., German debt?) to buy others (i.e., Italian debt? Which it is already the main buyer of) then it is an extension of the differentiated credit regime I have been arguing will become inevitable in my “MMT *and* higher rates” view. Yet the ECB would differentiate between countries, not sectors within a country. That will be desperately political and desperately unpopular with some.

Do you see the geopolitical and geoeconomic tectonic plates shifting? Do you see how this influences markets? If not, you are in the wrong game.

But there is still time to atone.

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Historic deal: OPEC + agrees to a 2 million barrel per day production cut totally shunning Biden

(zerohedge)

Oil Rallies As OPEC+ Agrees Historic 2 Million B/D Production Cut, Shuns Biden

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 09:11 AM

As was well-telegraphed – and despite The White House’s sabre-rattling – OPEC+ JMMC has recommended the cartel to go ahead with a historic 2 million b/d production cut.

One delegate has confirmed this cut is from baseline levels. This means the production cut is less than 2 million b/d directly since current actual production levels are already below quota. However, it is still a sizable cut.

As ArgusMedia reports, the extent to which any cut to November quotas will reduce actual supply will depend on how OPEC+ members fare in meeting their targets this month and how the cut is distributed.

The group as a whole fell 3.58mn b/d below its collective ceiling in August, according to an average of secondary source estimates.

If agreed by ministers at their meeting in Vienna today, it will mark the biggest cut since the group reduced its collective quota by 9.7mn b/d during the early stages of the Covid crisis in 2020.

WTI is extending gains on the news, rallying back above $87 at 7-week highs…

This is not good news for the American consumer as gas prices are about to start accelerating again…

And that is not good news for President Biden’s approval rating…

We await The White House statement ‘mulling’ a reaction to this clear dissent of the unipolar order.

As we have detailed recently, this is a direct message to The Fed and The White House…

END

Yemen/Saudi Arabia

Houthis warn oil firms to leave Saudi Arabia and UAE after their 6 month truce deal ends.

Kern/OilPrice.com

Houthis Warn Oil Firms To Leave Saudi Arabia And The UAE

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Yemen’s Houthis have warned oil companies operating in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to pack up and leave as the warring sides in the Yemeni conflict failed to reach an agreement to extend the six-month truce.

Fighting in Yemen has been ongoing for over seven years now after the Iran-affiliated Houthis overturned the elected president, which prompted Saudi Arabia to wage war on the rebel group. In response, the Houthis have made Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities their preferred target of attacks.

Yemen’s Armed Forces’ spokesman Yahya Saree wrote on Twitter this weekend, warning oil firms to organize and leave Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“As long as the American-Saudi aggression countries are not committed to a truce that gives the Yemeni people the right to exploit their oil wealth in favor of the salary of the Yemeni state employees, the armed forces give oil companies operating in the UAE and Saudi Arabia an opportunity to organize their situation and leave,” Saree wrote, adding “forewarned is forearmed.”

“If the Saudi and Emirati coalition continue to deprive our Yemeni people access to their resources, our military forces can, with God’s help, deprive them of their resources,” the Yemeni military spokesman added.

Meanwhile, UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg said on Sunday that he regrets “that an agreement has not been reached today, as an extended and expanded truce would provide additional critical benefits to the population.”

“As negotiations continue, the UN Special Envoy calls on the parties to maintain calm and refrain from provocations or any actions that could lead to an escalation of violence,” the UN statement reads.

Two months ago, Yemen’s Houthi-led government accused the country’s Saudi-backed coalition forces of siphoning off $13 billion in Yemeni oil revenues over the past five years, with reports claiming that another $180 million in looted oil left the country on a Greek oil tanker in August.

In a tweet published by local media sources, Houthi National Negotiation Delegation official Abdul Malik Al-Ajri claimed that the $13 billion “looted” from Yemen’s oil revenues is based on figures from OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) and maritime traffic data.

end

The real story on high gas prices

a must read.

(Zhong/EpochTimes)

Industry Insiders On Real Story Behind High Gas Prices: Structural Problems, Hostile Policies, And Inaction

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 01:05 PM

Authored by Allen Zhong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

High gas prices in America are caused by a mismatch between U.S. oil production and refining, bad policies or political hostility, and the Biden administration’s inaction, according to experts and oil industry insiders.

Inflation in the United States has been running high since March when the yearly Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 8.5 percent, the highest level since 1981.

A dramatic increase in energy prices has drawn special attention.

Between May and August, energy prices rose between 20 percent to 40 percent year-over-year.

President Joe Biden and the Democrats have proposed different solutions to the high energy prices, including a windfall tax for oil companies, urging gas stations to cut prices, imposing an oil export ban, and allowing countries to buy Russian oil with a price cap.

However, oil industry insiders and experts said most of those proposed measures either will not work or won’t lower the gas prices in America permanently.

Michael Wirth, chairman and CEO of U.S. oil giant Chevron, rejected the idea of taxing oil companies’ profits.

“Windfall profits taxes have been tried before in this country. They didn’t achieve the goal that was desired. It is pretty basic that if you want more of something, you tend not to tax it. If you want less of something, you put taxes on it,” he said during an interview with CNN on Sept. 13.

Oil Export Ban Could Be Disastrous

As inflation soared, Democrats have been calling for the White House to impose an oil export ban. But experts and a refinery owner warned this will not cut gas prices and may bring disastrous results.

U.S. crude oil exports have been increasing since 2011, and decreasing oil imports during the same time period caused net crude oil imports to decrease.

However, most of the oil in the recent export surge is light sweet oil which is also known as “shale oil.” However, the refineries in the United States were designed to refine heavy crude oil, aka conventional oil, Senior Vice President of American Energy Alliance Dan Kish told The Epoch Times.

According to an analysis by the Dallas Federal Reserve, the United States exported on average 3 million barrels of mainly light sweet crude oil per day at the end of November 2021 and imported more than 6 million barrels of mostly heavier crude oils from Canada and other foreign suppliers each day.

The U.S. refiners don’t have the capacity to process the exported crude oil, the authors of the analysis said.

Even if the U.S. bans oil exports, which are mostly shale oil, it’s impossible for refineries to update their facilities to refine shale oil after decades of political hostility against the oil industry.

Updating the facilities means the refineries need to invest billions of dollars and get extra emission-related permits.

It’s an impossible task under the Biden administration, Kish said.

“They’ve made the fossil fuel business in North America the enemy of the people, that’s why the prices keep trending up,” he said.

*John Catsimatidis, chairman and CEO of the Red Apple Group, at his office in New York City on Sept. 27, 2022. (Adhiraj Chakrabarti for The Epoch Times)*

John Catsimatidis, a billionaire who is also an oil refinery owner, holds a similar view.

“Why should anybody spend a billion, two billion, three billion, if you’re not sure of the policy of the country you’re doing business in the next five, ten years? Because you have to get a return on investment. So it’s the way the United States succeeds, the way companies succeed, if you have confidence in Washington, if they have confidence in the administration that if they spend a billion dollars or two billion dollars, that there’s going to be return of investment,” he told The Epoch Times.

Kish warned that an oil export ban will have disastrous results.

“If there’s a ban on exports, what would happen is we would end up with endless amounts of oil in the Gulf Coast. The oil couldn’t efficiently be used by our refineries. In order to make those refineries take that kind of oil, we would have to invest huge amounts of money which would drive up the price of the gasoline and the diesel on the jet fuel,” he said.

The two biggest oil companies in the United States, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, already voiced objections to the proposed oil export ban.

“The risk in an action like that has unintended consequences. And, in fact, the U.S. is both an exporter and importer of products. An export ban runs the risk of taking supplies that are needed in other parts of [the] world and reducing those, which can drive oil prices up, which then can affect the price of imports into this country,” Wirth responded to a call for banning oil exports from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and congressional Democrats.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods also rejected the call for an oil export ban in a letter to the Energy Department citing the same reasons, reported The Wall Street Journal.

The only ones who would temporarily benefit from an oil export ban are those refiners who specialize in refining light sweet crude oil, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve.

However, “as the price of domestically produced crude oil declines and storage fills, it would not be long before some domestic oil producers become unprofitable and cease operations,” reads the analysis.

Biden Suspended Critical Infrastructure

On his first day in the White House, President Joe Biden signed an executive order to revoke President Donald Trump’s permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline.

It turned out to be one of the most fatal moves for U.S. energy security and gas price stability because Canada is one of the most important sources of the conventional crude oil that most U.S. refineries can handle and the Keystone XL pipeline is what is needed to transport the Canadian crude oil.

“Keystone XL pipeline was going to supply about 800,000 barrels a day of Canadian oil and about 100,000 barrels a day of North Dakota oil, which is the right oil [heavy oil],” Kish said.

end

A must read:

(zerohedge)

War Breaks Out As “OPEC+ Takes On The Entire West”

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 11:48 AM

This time, it’s war.

One day after we wrote that “OPEC Is Taking On The Fed“, the oil cartel did just that when it announced that it was cutting output by 2mmb/d the despite a furious diplomatic campaign by the White House hoping to avoid the inevitable, and warning that any cut would be seen as a “hostile act” by the Soros administration. Of course, despite Biden’s fondest wishes that OPEC+, which of course counts Russia among its members, would help Democrats win the midterms by keeping the price of gas low, this was not going to happen…

… and not just for political reasons, but also due to the Fed’s increasingly challenging monetary policy. Yesterday, we summarized the dynamic as follows:

Fed hiking rates to crush oil demand and send US economy into recession fast.
OPEC+ cutting supply to offset reduced US oil demand and send US economy into recession even faster so Fed is forced to cut rates.

This morning, Rabobank’s Michael Every expanded on this, laying out the feedback loop OPEC and the Fed find themselves in:

Fed pivot is possible against a backdrop where oil prices march higher on supply destruction in response to demand destruction as monetary policy is tightened…

So what happens next? For one answer we go to Goldman Sachs which overnight expanded on the “OPEC+ takes on the Fed” concept and revised it to “OPEC+ takes on the West” (available to pro subs in the usual place)…

…. in which Goldman writes that the OPEC+ cut represents a return to the Old Oil Order, where core-OPEC acts under the rational behavior of a dominant producer with pricing power: “In that sense, while exceptional, this cut is also logical as it maximizes the group’s revenues today with minimal sacrifice of future profits.” In addition, Goldman notes that “the speed at which such an agreement was formed suggests the accord was a political statement as well” adding that various OPEC+ members have expressed their displeasure at US SPR releases, broader Western price caps/’Buyers’ cartel’, as well as security concerns and a potential return to the JCPOA.

Bottom line for traders: Goldman raises its 4Q22-1Q23 oil forecasts “conservatively” by $10/bbl, to $110/$115 respectively, “but acknowledge price risks are skewed potentially even higher.” Why? Because as Goldman notes, “recent fundamental developments reinforce these clear upside risks. Global stocks are reversing their recent builds, especially adjusting for soaring oil on water related to the redirection of Russian flows. China remains drawing at an unsustainable rate, merely delaying this tightening to ex-China balances. The latest DOE US demand estimate confirm that this summer’s demand soft patch was seasonal (WFH related), with demand rebounding since. Further, comments by Russia on the side of the OPEC+ conference comfort us in our expectation that exports are likely to decline as Europe implements both its physical embargo as well as its price cap (we expect Russian production to sequentially decline by 0.6 mb/d by spring 2023, even more conservative a forecast than the Russian oil ministry itself at -0.8 mb/d).”

Of course, Goldman warns that such a large OPEC+ effective cut will “likely warrant another response from the US administration”; and according to Michael Every some possible responses include:

Another 10m barrels will be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is not bottomless, and may be needed in a geopolitical emergency at some point.
To “explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term.” But there is no immediate private-sector response possible if the longer-term outlook is still to shut fossil fuels down.
Calling on US energy companies to bring pump prices down by closing the historically large gap between wholesale and retail gas prices – which is already slim for most retailers.
To consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices. This is even whispered to include the so-called NOPEC bill floated in 2007 but never enacted, which is designed to remove the state immunity shield and allow the international oil cartel, OPEC, and its national oil companies, to be sued under US antitrust law for anti-competitive attempts to limit the world’s supply of petroleum.
To accelerate the clean energy transition, without the minerals or supply chains to do so, by increasing “reliance on American-made and American-produced clean energy and energy technologies”.
Despite the White House’s Kirby talking about ‘reducing dependence on foreign oil production’, the Wall Street Journal reports the ‘US Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil’: so a tiny gain in oil and a massive loss of deterrent power and loss of face.

To these, Goldman would also add a coordinated IEA SPR release (should prices go high enough) as a possibility. Under the current ‘energy emergency’ conditions, there are minimal constraints on the current US administration in releasing additional barrels.

However, as the 2023 fiscal year begins, it provides access to c.70mb of future budgetary planned sales. These sales are typically given a drawdown window (e.g. FY 23-25) but no constraints on the distribution of the inventory releases over this time.

To this end, the Biden administration has already announced they will continue releasing the SPR “as appropriate” as well as saying it would work with Congress to potentially enable the “NOPEC” bill that has circulated through Congress since 2008.

Needless to say, as this increasingly hot war between OPEC+ and the West (i.e., Fed) escalates, the total amount of oil available to the West will go down, not up, forcing the Fed to hike even more to offset the decline in supply with even less demand (and perhaps even forcing to US to turn “kinetic” in delivering Democracy to Ryadh), a cycle which will go on until the Fed finally breaks something in the hyperfinancialized US economy in which financial assets were 630% of GDP at least check…

… or in other words, OPEC+ doesn’t have to defeat the entire west: just its weakest financial institution whose collapse will drag down everything else. At that point global commodity producers, including Russia, will have effectively defeated the world’s former superpower.

Much more from the full must-read Goldman note available to pro subs.

END

Biden Made Secret Offer to Buy Tons of OPEC+ Oil at $80 a Barrel in Exchange for Not Cutting Production – Got Rebuffed

Talk about a clueless bunch with limited creditability.
In today’s world of Fiat currency( printed scrip with no intrinsic backing) the only thing that gives rise to currency value is the productive output of a nation and confidence in the value of that currency to be acceptable desired payment for labor/ efforts. Confidence is measured in part by the creditability given to a nation’s leadership.
Today, there is little confidence in the Biden gong show which is not even representative of a larger government bureaucracy but a limited number of State actors.
This action by OPEC is a clear, piss off moment for the Biden regime. This will not be lost on the global community of nations who are watching.

https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=63384

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Venezuela//USA

Shunned by OPEC, Biden is now dealing with Maduro and offers them a deal for their high cost crude

(zerohedge)

Shunned Biden Flip-Flops On Dealing with ‘Dictator’ Maduro, Offers Venezuela Deal For Crude Production Hike

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Having been shunned by the Saudis (who are now “colluding with Russia to hurt low income countries” according to a White House spokesman this morning on CNBC), President Biden has lurched all the way to negotiating with another “dictator”.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the Biden administration proposed a deal that will ease sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron to pump oil in the country after OPEC+ unveiled its largest production cut since COVID (despite Biden’s begging).

According to people familiar with the proposal, in exchange for significant sanctions relief (and the potential reopening of US and European markets for Venezuelan crude exports), the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would resume long-suspended talks with the country’s opposition to discuss conditions needed to hold free and fair presidential elections in 2024

Officials have reportedly also worked out a deal that would free up hundreds of millions of dollars in Venezuelan state funds frozen in American banks to pay for imports of food, medicine and equipment for the country’s battered electricity grid and municipal water systems.

Chevron spokesman Ray Fohr didn’t comment on the proposed deal, but said that in Venezuela, “we have dedicated investments and a large workforce who are dependent on our presence.” He said the company is in compliance with the current sanctions framework.

This is an interesting shift given that in Feb 2021, the Biden administration will continue recognizing Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president of the country and won’t negotiate anytime soon with President Nicolás Maduro.

“I certainly don’t expect this administration to be engaging directly with Maduro,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing with reporters Wednesday.

It seems resurgent gas prices and re-plummeting approval ratings ahead of the Midterms (and a record low 22 days of supply left in the SPR) are just the recipe for the memory hole of all the Biden rantings against Trump dealings with Maduro.

Simply put, the fact that Biden is going cap-in-hand to Venezuela to offer them a deal to increase crude production (despite Maduro being a “narco terrorist”), confirms the message that Saudi Arabia was implicitly sending with yesterday’s OPEC+ decision that they are the boss when it comes to the world’s most prized commodity – which despite the outcry continues to be crude oil.

Summing things up quite succinctly, @BradHuston noted on Twitter: “So basically Biden is saying that domestic producers are more evil than Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro.”

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.98680 DOWN 0.0045 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED

USA/ YEN 144.68 UP 0.243 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1261 DOWN 0.0095

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED LAST DOWN 16.82 PTS OR .55%

Hang Seng CLOSED LAST DOWN 75.88 POINTS OR .42%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.04% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED LAST DOWN 75.88 PTS OR .42%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED LAST DOWN 16.82 PTS OR .55%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.04%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 190.77 PTS OR 0.70%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1716.10

silver:$20.60

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 111.41 UP 40 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.17% UP 28 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.244% UP 2 AND 1/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.28%// UP 24 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.51 UP 31 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.087% UP 17 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98204 DOWN .0093 or 93 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.85 UP 0.416 OR YEN DOWN 41 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1199 DOWN .01757 OR 176 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .01207 OR 121 BASIS pts to 1.3717

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0800

TURKISH LIRA: 18.58 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.244

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.816% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.772 UP 1 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 111,91 UP .89 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 55.35 PTS OR 0.78%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 46.40 POINTS OR 0.37%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 49.04 PTS OR 0.82%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 65.30OR 0.86%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 220.17PTS OR 1.03%

WTI Oil price 88.17 12: EST

Brent Oil: 93.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 60.89 DOWN 0 AND 73/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2,087

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9797 UP .01130 OR 113 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1155 DOWN .02011 or 201 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.037 UP .594//YEN DOWN .594 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3744 UP 0.01472 (CDN dollar, DOWN 147 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 88.83

Brent OIL: 94.72

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.824%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 3.796%

USA dollar index:112.14 UP 1.12 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.59

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.91 DOWN 0 AND 73/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 346.93 PTS OR 1.25 %

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 87.68 PTS OR 0.76%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.51 UP 1.96 PTS (6.87)%

GLD: $159.63 DOWN 0.18 OR 1.41%

SLV/ $19.04 UP $.05 OR 0.26%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Stocks Falter On Flood Of FedSpeak, Payrolls Paranoia

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 04:01 PM

From the avalanche of FedSpeak today, there was no sign at all of a ‘pivot’ or ‘pause’…

Overnight: BOSTIC: To those who think the Fed is going to begin cutting rates in 2023, “Not so fast.”
0850ET: MESTER SAYS US IS IN AN UNACCEPTABLY HIGH INFLATION ENVIRONMENT
0915ET: KASHKARI: ALMOST NO EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED, WE ARE QUITE A WAYS AWAY FROM A PAUSE IN RATE HIKES
1300ET: EVANS: INFLATION IS VERY HIGH, ISSUE IS TOP OF MIND FOR THE FED, CAN SEE THE FED SHOULD HAVE HIKED RATES SOONER
1300ET: COOK: FED LIKELY TO KEEP POLICY ‘RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIME’, CRITICAL TO STOP INFLATIONARY PSYCHOLOGY FROM TAKING HOLD, QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING ‘IS THE RIGHT PATH’

And there’s more tonight:

1700ET: Waller
1830ET: Mester

And after all that, the market shifted hawkishly once again… as everyone holds their breath for tomorrow’s payrolls print…

Source: Bloomberg

UK risks reared their ugly head again as cable and gilts were monkeyhammered lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Pension funds are selling billions of pounds worth of assets to rebuild their cash buffers before the Bank of England removes critical market support next week that it introduced to prevent the collapse of the UK’s government bond market.

US Treasury yields spiked higher amid a sizable futures block trade early in the day. Lots of chatter of a significant rate-lock as MS started to market the TWTR deal debt…

Source: Bloomberg

By the close, yields had basically risen back to unchanged on the week (with 30Y underperforming)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is noteworthy since bond yields have dramatically decoupled from stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks have also decoupled from the market’s hawkish expectations of The Fed’s terminal rate…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw US equity markets trading chaotically ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls print with overnight weakness suddenly met with a panic bid back to the overnight highs at the cash open, only to slapped back lower by the European close. Losses extended after 1430 (margin call time). The Dow was the laggard on the day, falling back below 30,000…

On the week, all the majors are still up 4-5% (with The Dow the laggard)…

Once again today, S&P stalled at 3800…

VIX rallied back above 30 ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls print…

The dollar rallied once again, erasing the early week’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped sideways, clinging to $20k…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices continued to rise with WTI testing up near $89…

Gold also closed green, with futures holding above $1700…

Finally, as a reminder, five of the last six monthly payrolls prints have ended with the S&P lower on the day (whether the data beat or missed)…

Source: Bloomberg

So will good news be bad news or bad news be good news tomorrow?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING

ii) USA DATA/

Initial jobless claims suddenly jump

(zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Suddenly Jumped Last Week

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 08:35 AM

After Q2’s significant weakening in the labor market (surging jobless claims), the last two months have seen seasonally-adjusted initial claims data revert optimistically lower.

However, the last week saw claims increase from a revised lower 190k to 219k, which upticked the 4-week average for the first time in 8 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

We don’t know but wonder if this shift is related to Hurricane Ian in any way.

Additionally, as the chart above shows, the number of Americans on continuing claims, which has also been trending lower, ticked up last week from 1.346mm to 1.361mm.

This is not the magnitude of ‘bad’ news that’s required to get The Fed off its ‘hawks to the moon’ seat, but it is worth keeping an eye on as it perhaps represents a trend change.

This small increase is interesting in context of other reports.

U.S.-based employers announced 29,989 cuts in September, a 46.4% increase from the 20,485 cuts announced in August. It is 67.6% higher than the 17,898 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

September marks the fifth time this year that cuts were higher in 2022 than in the corresponding month a year earlier.

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

The huge glut of New York office space sparks a $453 billion value loss

(zerohedge)

NYC Office Space Glut May Spark $453 Billion In Value Loss, Study Warns

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 06:55 AM

While the Biden administration reinforces the narrative that the economy is robust ahead of the midterm elections, one overlooked sector of the economy could be on the brink of turmoil. That is, commercial real estate.

After more than two years, the virus pandemic upended the world of work, signs of distress in commercial real estate are reemerging. We have pointed this out multiple times this summer, NYC Office Space Glut Made Worse By Remote Work As Older Towers Face High Vacancy and Office Space Market Faces “Economic Downturn” Due To Perfect Storm Of Factors.

Validating our concerns is a new report via Bloomberg, citing a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research that outlines NYC office buildings may experience a massive wipeout in valuation, upwards of $453 billion.

NBER said the value of office buildings plunged 45% in 2020 and is forecasted to remain around 39% below pre-Covid levels due to remote working, companies shrinking corporate workspaces, and some firms gravitating to newer buildings.

Even though Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other Wall Street firms have pushed for a return to the office after the Labor Day holiday, NYC’s office-occupancy trends are still below half, according to card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems.

The problem with NYC is a glut of decades-old office buildings sitting partially empty. This is becoming a multibillion-dollar problem for building owners.

Office vacancy rates in the metro area are some of the highest in the world.

For a deeper dive into the commercial real estate market, Senior REIT Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence Jeff Langbaum shows office REIT share prices have plunged this year “as fears over long-term tenant demand weigh on landlords. REITs focused in California fared the worst in 3Q, catching up to their New York peers who’ve fallen the most year-to-date even though leasing volume continues to show elevated demand for top-quality space.”

Vornado Realty Trust, a real estate investment trust with massive exposure to the NYC office, is one of the worst performing REITs year-to-date, down about 42%.

Langbaum pointed out that NYC REITs’ valuations continue to slide as there’s no improvement in the demand picture anytime soon.

Will it only take a recession to trigger a bust in NYC commercial office space?

end

USA national debt blows past $31 trillion

(zerohedge)

US National Debt Blows Past $31 Trillion

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 07:00 PM

For the old timers in here, it seems like just yesterday that the US national debt was “only” pushing $6 trillion. Then, between the ‘war on terror’ and QE which made a mockery of moral hazard, America has now reached a grim financial milestone – as the national debt tops $31 trillion for the first time, according to a new Treasury Department report.

The record-high debt comes as historically low interest rates have turned into higher borrowing costs, as the Fed attempts to tame the inflation they, the banks, and the ‘blank check’ dinosaurs leading the country – have caused.

And, of course, the only reason they’ve been able to pull this off without (until recently) massive, consumer-scorching inflation is because the dollar is still the global reserve currency.

“So many of the concerns we’ve had about our growing debt path are starting to show themselves as we both grow our debt and grow our rates of interest,” said Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, in a statement to the NY Times. “Too many people were complacent about our debt path in part because rates were so low.“

Higher rates could add an additional $1 trillion to what the federal government spends on interest payments this decade, according to Peterson Foundation estimates. That is on top of the record $8.1 trillion in debt costs that the Congressional Budget Office projected in May. Expenditures on interest could exceed what the United States spends on national defense by 2029, if interest rates on public debt rise to be just one percentage point higher than what the C.B.O. estimated over the next few years.

The Fed, which slashed rates to near zero during the pandemic, has since begun raising them to try to tame the most rapid inflation in 40 years. Rates are now set in a range between 3 and 3.25 percent, and the central bank’s most recent projections saw them climbing to 4.6 percent by the end of next year — up from 3.8 percent in an earlier forecast. -NYT

As Michael Maharrey of SchiffGold notes; So What?

[T]here is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight. In August alone, the US government ran a massive $219.6 billion budget deficit.

While spending has slowed somewhat with the end of pandemic-era programs, the Biden administration continues to burn through roughly half-a-trillion dollars every single month. With one month left in the fiscal year, the government has spent just over $5.35 trillion.

And there is more spending coming down the pike.

The US government is still handing out COVID stimulus and it wants more. Congress recently pushed through another massive spending bill. Meanwhile, the US continues to shower money on Ukraine and other countries around the world. And we haven’t begun to see the impact of student loan forgiveness.

On top of increased spending, rising interest rates will balloon the debt even more.

Every increase in interest rate raises the federal government’s interest expense. So far in fiscal 2022, the US Treasury has forked out $471 billion just to fund the government’s interest payments.

To put that number into context, at this point in fiscal 2021 the Treasury’s interest expense stood at $356 billion. That represents a 30% year-on-year increase. Interest expense ranks as the sixth largest budget expense category, about $250 billion below Medicare. If interest rates remain elevated or continue rising, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, this is exactly what will happen. It projects interest payments will triple from nearly $400 billion in fiscal 2022 to $1.2 trillion in 2032. And it’s worse than that. The CBO made this estimate in May. Interest rates are already higher than those used in its analysis.

Most people just shrug off the ever-growing national debt. When we talk about the soaring debt, the answer is, “So what?” They figure if it hasn’t mattered yet, it won’t matter tomorrow. But you can only kick the debt can down the road so far before you run out of road.

The Problem of Debt

James Madison considered debt part of a trifecta of tools government uses to oppress the people.

Armies, and debts, and taxes are the KNOWN INSTRUMENTS for putting the many under the domination of the few.”

So, how will this enormous massive debt actually impact our lives?

In the first place, a large national debt stunts economic growth.

According to the National Debt Clock, the debt to GDP ratio is 125.12%. Studies have shown that a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90% retards economic growth by about 30%. This throws cold water on the conventional “spend now, worry about the debt later” mantra, along with the frequent claim that “we can grow ourselves out of the debt” now popular on both sides of the aisle in DC.

More immediately, the national debt is a big problem for the Federal Reserve as it drives up interest rates hoping to tame inflation.

The US government can’t keep borrowing and spending without the Fed monetizing the debt. It needs the central bank to buy Treasuries to prop up demand. Without the Fed’s intervention in the bond market, prices will tank, driving interest rates on US debt even higher.

That means the Fed can’t win this inflation fight. And that means you had better get used to spending more on everything.

A paper published by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank acknowledged that the central bank can’t slay inflation unless the US government gets its spending under control. In a nutshell, the authors argue that the Fed can’t control inflation alone. US government fiscal policy contributes to inflationary pressure and makes it impossible for the Fed to do its job.

Trend inflation is fully controlled by the monetary authority only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans. When the fiscal authority is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances, the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt. As a result, a large fiscal imbalance combined with a weakening fiscal credibility may lead trend inflation to drift away from the long-run target chosen by the monetary authority.”

This clearly isn’t in the cards.

In other words, when it comes to fighting inflation, the Fed is bluffing because it’s holding a losing hand. The rising interest on the debt will force the national debt will force the central bank to surrender to inflation.

In the long run, unbridled borrowing and spending will drive inflation to the point that people lose faith in the dollar. There is already talk of a “post-dollar” world.

The bottom line is debt isn’t without consequences. And the consequences will be severe when the chickens come home to roost.

END

USA seafood industry reeling from high tariffs and inflation

(zerohedge)

US Seafood Industry Reeling From High Tariffs And Inflation

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Faced with trade-war tariffs and sky-high inflation, the US fishing industry is getting ‘crushed’ right now.

Much of it is due to the amount of offshore processing done in China after fish are caught in US waters – which means the US companies catching them are paying high duty rates on various types of seafood, including salmon, tilapia, and tuna, crab and shrimp, according to the Epoch Times, which notes that American companies have been sending their ocean harvests to China for processing for more than a decade in order to take advantage of historically cheaper labor and operating costs.

In fact, some 65% of the estimated 6.3 billion pounds of seafood consumed by Americans every year is reimported – a move which saves US companies around 80 cents per pound of fish in labor costs. Given the roughly 30 million pounds of salmon alone being sent to Chinese processing plants, the savings add up.

The industry’s trawlers—launching from picturesque harbors over the past decade—represent 1.8 million jobs, $255 billion in sales, and $117 billion in value-added impacts. -Epoch Times

That said, despite the savings there are expensive lessons in dependency on cheap labor.

In 2018, when the Trump administration slapped at 25% duty tax on Chinese imports, Beijing hit 128 American imports with retaliatory tariffs – much of which were grocery items, including seafood. As a result, some seafood shipments are currently being hit with duty rates of up to 45%.

And what did some US seafood suppliers do after the China tariffs? They turned to Russian fish imports in 2018. Russia, as it stands, is the fifth largest wild-caught fish producer and the leading global producer of seafood. It exports a massive amount of Pollock – used in things like fast food sandwiches and fish sticks.

Last year, the US imported $1.2 billion of Russian seafood products, as they offer cheaper prices on various species of whitefish according to the report – however in March, President Joe Biden banned Russian seafood imports as part of sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine.

More via the Epoch Times,

Compounding this is inflation this year. Seafood has outpaced other grocery products on inflated price tags, hitting an almost 17 percent increase as of July.

Financial expert and CEO of The Smart Investor, Baruch Silvermann, told The Epoch Times soaring inflation is taking a toll on all industries, including America’s fishing and seafood.

“This is particularly noticeable in exports as the dollar is stronger against other currencies. Since the dollar is stronger, it means that exports are less competitive and demand may continue to be weak,” he explained.

“For example, while one euro may have provided $1.20 last year, now, it is providing less than $1. This is a potential drop in profits of 20 percent,” Silvermann noted.

When it comes to imports and exports, Salvatore “Sal” Stile II knows his way around the yard. He’s the president of the Valley Stream-based shipping and customs clearance company Alba Wheels Up International in New York.

Stile says America’s fishing industry is “absolutely getting crushed” by a combination of tariffs, inflation, and port logistics.

“Basically, it works both ways. The China tariffs are impacting American fisheries because most American fish is sent to China for processing,” Stile told The Epoch Times.

After paying import duties upon arrival to China, American seafood is then returned for sale after processing. Once it reaches U.S. shores again, the fish becomes subject to a second tax.

And while consumers are seeing some of that cost burden in grocery stores, the vast majority is absorbed by industry workers.

“Our fishermen are fishing off small family owned vessels here in the North Pacific. The cost of fuel, bait, ice, and transportation costs are astronomical,” James Johnson, executive director of the Deep Sea Fishermen’s Union of the Pacific, told The Epoch Times.

The union is the oldest of its kind in the United States—founded in 1912—and claims the distinction of being the only U.S. maritime union that represents the concerns of crewmen.

Inflation and tariffs aside, Johnson explained the overhead and operating costs for boat crews are extremely high to begin with.

“And then what proceeds are left are paid back to the crew and if there’s any profit at the end then it’s divided by the crew and the ownership.

Fishing is kind of like a weird model,” he said.

“Every fisherman is an independent contractor, they’re not employees … so they bear a lot of the cost and responsibility directly. So I think when we see the cost of inflationary pressures it’s because it’s borne by the fishermen.”

Exacerbating this are ongoing logistical complications at maritime terminals.

The Parking Problem

According to Stile, even when American fishermen have the opportunity to sell their products, they face hurdles like long wait times, lack of space, and skipped ports of call.

Lack of container space and congestion in U.S. ports garnered attention since the onset of the pandemic due to reduced operating capacity and the ability to export or receive containers from overseas.

The situation has improved some this year, but the same challenges remain.

“Some ports on the west coast are still suffering this issue. Some are not only skipped; empty containers aren’t being put back on the ships,” Stile explained.

The space availability dilemma for empty containers in American ports creates a chain reaction that also impacts the struggling seafood industry. Stile explained the empty container problem works, in essence, just like a parking garage.

“If you don’t have enough cars coming out, you can’t park.”

The empty container debacle also gets expensive fast, leading to canceled stops altogether to avoid heavy “detention” fees.

“You’re being charged for the unreturned containers. I had one client that couldn’t return containers, it cost him tens of thousands of dollars,” he said.

Keeping It Local

While commercial fishing largely suffers from high tariffs, the roughly 35 percent of the industry that keeps its production local isn’t experiencing any China-U.S. trade fallout.

Up in Alaska, fishing is as much a part of life as scenic mountain vistas and grizzly bears.

As of 2020, the fishing industry generated more than $13 billion annually in economic output for the state and employs nearly 100,000 people full-time. That amounts to almost 14 percent of Alaska’s population.

Charlene Jones drives a propane truck in the city of Haines, which is located along the stunning and isolated Lynn Canal in the southeastern coastal region. When asked how important the fishing industry is in her area, Jones told The Epoch Times, “It’s critical.”

Read the rest here…

END

Gasoline prices keep climbing as gas station margins plunge. Many are now underwater

(Athrappuly/EpochTimes)

Gasoline Prices Keep Climbing, But Retail Gas Station Margins Plunge, With Many Now ‘Under Water’

WEDNESDAY, OCT 05, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Despite gas prices rising over the past weeks, retail gas stations are seeing their margins decrease, putting a strain on such businesses.

The national average price of regular gas, as of Oct. 5, was $3.831 per gallon, up $0.26 from the previous day, $0.66 from a week back, and $0.45 a month ago, according to data from American Automobile Association (AAA). In contrast, profit margins of gas stations have gone down.

“OPIS MarginPro shows retail gas margins are ~18cts/gal nationwide. That’s down 17cts/gal in a week; 25cts/gal in a mo.; and 54cts/gal lower than end 1Q 2022. When one considers operating costs (labor, credit card fees, etc.), many stores are under water,” noted Tom Kloza, an expert on North American fuel markets, a tweet. on Oct. 4.

In 2021, the gross margin on gasoline was $0.309 per gallon, or 10.2 percent of the $3.03 per gallon average price, according to global trade association NACS. In the previous five years, retail gross margins on gas averaged $0.272 per gallon, which comes to 10.7 percent of the gas price.

An analysis of weekly rolling average profit margin of 30,000 U.S. gas stations published at Fortune found that they only make a net profit of around $0.03–0.07 per gallon after factoring in costs such as labor, credit card transaction fees, insurance, and utilities.

The net profit of gas stations comes to less than 2 percent, which is very low when compared to other high-profit industries like the banking sector, which is estimated to net around 30 percent margins.

Blaming Gas Stations and Companies, Strategic Reserve Release

While gas stations are dealing with low profit margins, the Biden administration is blaming rising gasoline prices on these businesses.

During a White House meeting on Sept. 26, President Joe Biden insisted that gas stations and oil companies are making a “lot of profit” due to which the public is paying the price of high inflation.

“To the companies running gas stations and setting those prices at the pump: Bring down the prices you’re charging at the pump to reflect the cost you pay for the product. Do it now,” the president said.

Meanwhile, two leading oil industry groups have raised concerns that the Biden administration might limit or ban the export of refined petroleum products to build domestic inventories of gasoline.

If implemented, such a move will limit the markets for refiners, curb capacity, and push up gas prices in the long run, noted Patrick De Haan, an oil expert, in a tweet on Oct. 5.

Under the Biden administration, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 422.858 million barrels of oil, as of Sept. 23, from 617 million barrels on Oct. 1, 2021. This is the lowest level since 1984.

In an interview with Just the News, Tim Stewart, the head of the U.S. Oil and Gas Association, pointed out that the United States is selling more oil from its reserves than the production of medium-sized OPEC nations like Angola or Algeria are selling.

“We’re selling twice as much per day than we’re producing out of Alaska. That puts us somewhere between Exxon and Conoco in terms of … the impact we’re having on the daily supply—and this is happening without new oil going in to replace it,” he said.

END

After the market closed AMD made a catasrophic preannuncement and this will drag down the entire chipsector tomorrow.

(zerohedge)

AMD Tumbles After Catastrophic Preannouncement, Drags Down Chip Sector

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 04:59 PM

Chip giant Advanced Micro Devices slumped, and dragged peers such as Intel and others lower in after hours trading after the company released preliminary Q3 results which fell were a disaster, some 20% below analyst the company’s own guidance from just two months ago, and sparking fresh concerns about a sputtering market for personal-computer chips which has sent Intel to the lowest level in seven years.

AMD reported that Q3 revenue was about $5.6 billion, which was +29% Y/Y, was far below the average estimate $6.71 billion.

The company said that “preliminary results reflect lower than expected Client segment revenue resulting from reduced processor shipments due to a weaker than expected PC market and significant inventory correction actions across the PC supply chain.”

And in the latest confirmation that the inventory and margin-crushing bullwhip effect is now everywhere and about to unleash a deflationary tsunami (just as we warned back in May), AMD said that non-GAAP gross margin will be approximately 50%, down sharply from the company’s previous guidance of 54% announced just two months ago.

AMD blamed the gross margin shortfall on “lower revenue driven by lower Client processor unit shipments and average selling price (ASP). In addition, the third quarter results are expected to include approximately $160 million of charges primarily for inventory, pricing, and related reserves in the graphics and client businesses.“

“The PC market weakened significantly in the quarter,” said AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su. “While our product portfolio remains very strong, macroeconomic conditions drove lower than expected PC demand and a significant inventory correction across the PC supply chain. As we navigate the current market conditions, we are pleased with the performance of our Data Center, Embedded, and Gaming segments and the strength of our diversified business model and balance sheet. We remain focused on delivering our leadership product roadmap and look forward to launching our next-generation 5nm data center and graphics products later this quarter.”

AMD stock plunged on the latest dismal report, but has since recovered more than half the drop.

Other names hit by the ugly preannouncement include INTC and NVDA, which will likely be next to preannounce catastrophic Q3 results.

Tyson Foods moves out of Chicago and heads to red state Arkansas

(zerohedge)

Tyson Joins Chicago Corporate Exodus; Moves “All Employees” To Arkansas

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Companies are finding it increasingly difficult to operate in the Chicago metropolitan area after progressive policies and defunding the police rhetoric have transformed the area into a violent mess. The latest company with operations in Chicago to run towards the exit door is America’s top meat company, Tyson Foods Inc.

Tyson announced Wednesday plans to move “all its corporate team members from the Chicago, Downers Grove, and Dakota Dunes area corporate locations to its world headquarters in Springdale, Arkansas.”

“The move will foster closer collaboration, enhance team member agility and enable faster decision-making, positioning Tyson to win with its team members, customers, and consumers. Team members will begin the phased relocation in early 2023,” Tyson continued in a statement.

Bloomberg pointed out that 1,000 employees from downtown Chicago and surrounding regional offices, as well as those in Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, will be relocated to Springdale.

Donnie King, President & CEO of Tyson, said the move was about bringing their corporate team closer “together under one roof unlocks greater opportunities to share perspectives and ideas, while also enabling us to act quickly to solve problems and provide the innovative products solutions that our customers deserve and value.”

Even though Tyson and King say the move is to enhance their corporate team, it comes as an exodus of companies is leaving Chicago due to out-of-control violent crime and high taxes.

Weeks ago, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said Chicago is a “city in crisis” and that recruiting is especially challenging at the company’s downtown headquarters.

“It has become increasingly difficult to operate a global business out of the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois,” Kempczinski said.

A Tyson spokesperson told Bloomberg the transition out of Chicago wasn’t related to crime or high taxes. Yeah, okay…

Over the summer, billionaire Ken Griffin announced he was moving Citadel’s headquarters from Chicago to Miami. He likened the city to “Afghanistan, on a good day, and that’s a problem,” adding bullet holes riddled the building he lived in.

Boeing and Caterpillar have also announced the move of a corporate headquarters from Illinois in the past two months.

Meanwhile, as the exodus of businesses and people is only gaining momentum from the failed liberal city (and state), the mayor of Chicago continues to party on

END

Shoplifting In California Is Out Of Control Due To Zero Consequences: District Attorney

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 03:20 PM

Authored by Jamie Joseph and Siyamak Khorrami via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Shoplifting in California is getting out of control because of recent criminal justice reform laws, a district attorney told EpochTV’s “California Insider.”

District Attorney of El Dorado County Vern Pierson said that while property crimes, including shoplifting, are illegal, state laws such as Proposition 47 and Proposition 57 allow many criminal activities to go undeterred.

Passed by voters in 2014, Prop. 47 downgraded certain thefts and drug offenses from felonies to misdemeanors. Its most well-known statute raised the minimum amount of stolen goods from $400 to $950 for a theft case to be classified as a felony, which critics consider to be the main cause of a rise in petty theft across the state.

It also allows felons currently serving prison terms to petition for resentencing under the new classifications. Those who have already served their terms can also have their past convictions reclassified as misdemeanors.

“The practical reality is that most retailers have learned if they call law enforcement for a theft of less than $950, either law enforcement will not respond, or if they respond at most, what they will do is issue a citation [for court appearance],” Pierson said.

He noted that most theft suspects don’t show up in court, for which there are little or no consequences.

As such, most retailers in California have a policy that prevents their employees from reporting low-level property crimes, which is why the data for such incidents may be inaccurate, according to Pierson. Some stores stop reporting petty theft altogether because police “can’t do much.”

A store can be sued by an attempted robbery suspect who’s physically confronted by its employees.

“We’re a very litigious society here in California, and the stores and their insurance carriers really are afraid of being sued for trying to stop a crime that has little or no consequence,” he said.

Prop. 57, passed in 2016, allows certain criminals who are classified as “non-violent” to be released early. It also prohibits prosecutors from charging juveniles as adults without a judge’s approval and those who were tried as adults for crimes committed when they were juveniles to appeal their sentences.

As an emergency measure to reduce the jail population during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Judicial Council of California in April 2020 removed cash bail for some defendants. Although the statewide zero-bail order expired in June, courts still have to consider each defendant’s ability to pay while setting bail amounts, following a California Supreme Court ruling in March 2021.

The Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group, reported upticks in the number of property and violent crimes last year in four of the state’s largest cities—Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego, and San Francisco.

An analysis by the group also found “some evidence” that Prop. 47 affected property crime, as personal property thefts grew by 9 percent from 2014 to 2016, with thefts from motor vehicles accounting for about three-quarters of this growth.

“We have this increased lawlessness that comes from [the perception that] ‘I can take other people’s property because nothing will happen to me,’” Pierson said.

He noted that data generated by car insurance companies will be able to show a more accurate picture of property crimes statewide since they require individuals to file a police report when making a claim.

“What we’ve seen in the last six or seven years is … auto burglaries and auto thefts are up dramatically,” Pierson said. “And that’s a truer set of data for where crime actually is in California.”

III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//GASOLINE REPORTING

TOTALLY CROOKED REPORTING:

US Gasoline Demand Unexpectedly Soars To Highest In Five Years As Inventories Crater

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 02:46 PM

Two months ago, amid some major discrepancies in key points, the energy market was swept with speculation that the Biden admin – in this case the Department of Energy – was publishing “very crooked numbers“ to artificially represent gasoline demand as much lower than it really was in order to depress the price of oil (considering the lengths to which the Soros administration has gone to keep gas prices low ahead of the midterms, even threatening OPEC+ that it had committed a “hostile act” for daring to put its own interest ahead of the Democrats’ chances of winning the midterms). What made the manipulated “data” even more absurd is that gasoline demand had somehow collapsed below levels hit in 2020 when the US economy was largely shut down by covid.

And so, after we raised a big stink, and after the DOE was caught revising its weekly number substantially higher on at least two occasions, things are back to normal, and according to the latest DOE data, US gasoline demand is magically roaring back just as the US economy is actually sliding into a recession and just as OPEC+ moves to cut global oil supplies. As shown below, according to the latest EIA release, weekly gasoline supplied – a proxy for demand – hit the highest level this year, surging not only past the five-year average but also the highest level in the past five years…

… while gasoline inventories plunged to the lowest since November 2014, according to the EIA.

Worse, petroleum inventories fell by -16 million bbl in the week to September 30 (reductions in crude (-8 million), gasoline (-5 million), distillate fuel oil (-3 million) and jet fuel (-1 million)). Including the SPR, total inventories have depleted by 480 million bbl since the start of July 2020 and are now at the lowest seasonal level since 2004:

While we are delighted to have gotten to the bottom of yet another government data “intervention” coverup, it goes without saying that surging demand in a time when supply is collapsing is a scenario that could intensify the Soros administration’s worries over pump prices heading into November elections.

SWAMP STORIES

FBI Sued For Withholding Records Of Facebook Censorship Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

Amid mounting questions over an FBI warning that prompted Facebook to suppress a story about Hunter Biden’s laptop, the federal agency now faces a lawsuit seeking to compel it to publicize conversations it had with the social media giant.

The lawsuit was filed Tuesday by America First Legal (AFL) at a Washington D.C. District Court. The non-profit group, founded by longtime Donald Trump adviser Stephen Miller, said Americans deserve to know what the FBI and the social media giant were up to as the November elections approached.

According to the complaint (pdf), the AFL requested in August that the FBI make public all of its communications with Facebook between Oct. 1, 2020, and Nov. 15, 2020. However, the FBI turned down that request, claiming that it was so “overly broad” that it couldn’t be done “with a reasonable amount of effort.”

AFL’s complaint said: “Barely a month before the 2022 midterm election, FBI officials continue to suppress information of great interest to American voters and stonewall AFL’s request for records relating to the FBI’s collusive scheme with Facebook to censor news and information about the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop.”

Zuckerberg’s Podcast Comments

Facebook has drawn much scrutiny after Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, told popular podcast host Joe Rogan that the platform did algorithmically suppress a New York Post story on emails allegedly recovered from a laptop owned by then-presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son. Those emails, according to the Post, showed a direct link Biden had with his son’s dubious business dealings in China and Ukraine.

File image of then Vice President Joe Biden walking out of Air Force Two with his granddaughter Finnegan Biden and son Hunter Biden at the airport in Beijing, China on Dec. 4, 2013. (Ng Han Guan-Pool/Getty Images)

Zuckerberg said this apparent censorship only happened after the FBI approached Meta with warnings about “Russian disinformation.”

“The background here is that the FBI came to us—some folks on our team—and was like, ‘Hey, just so you know, you should be on high alert. We thought there was a lot of Russian propaganda in the 2016 election, we have it on notice that basically there’s about to be some kind of dump that’s similar to that,’” he told Rogan in the Aug. 25 interview.

The FBI didn’t specifically mention the laptop story, Zuckerberg said, but Facebook thought it “fit that pattern” the FBI described and decided to limit its reach.

Despite Zuckerberg’s claims, the AFL insists that there was a “comprehensive collusion” between the FBI and Big Tech to censor and control critical information in an effort to put Joe Biden into the White House.

“The evidence is that during the 2020 Presidential election campaign, the FBI conspired and combined with large corporations, including Facebook, to censor and suppress the damning evidence of Biden family corruption and influence peddling found on Hunter Biden’s laptop,” said AFL Senior Counselor Reed Rubinstein.

“This was done to help Joe Biden and the Democrats win the 2020 election.”

Republican Sens. Chuck Grassley (Iowa) and Ron Johnson (Wis.) agreed. In their letters to Zuckerberg and FBI Director Chris Wray, the senators asked for names of the government and Facebook employees involved in those conversations about “Russian disinformation.”

“The American people deserve to know whether the FBI used Facebook as part of their alleged plan to discredit information about Hunter Biden,” the senators wrote.

END

Feds Have Enough Evidence To Slap Hunter Biden With Tax, Gun Charges: WaPo

THURSDAY, OCT 06, 2022 – 03:00 PM

Federal investigators looking into Hunter Biden’s dealings have enough evidence to charge him with tax crimes and a false statement related to a gun purchase, the Washington Post reports.

The investigation into Hunter Biden began in 2018, and became a central focus for then-president Donald Trump during his unsuccessful 2020 reelection effort. Initially, the investigation centered around Hunter Biden’s finances related to overseas business ties and consulting work. Over time, investigators with multiple agencies focused closely on whether he did not report all of his income, and whether he lied on gun purchase paperwork in 2018, according to the people familiar with the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing case. -WaPo

Of course – this reeks of a containment strategy to avoid implicating the sitting President, as the feds apparently haven’t been looking into ill-gotten gains from a massive international influence-peddling operation while his dad was VP, for which there is ample evidence.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1577470595201208320&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Ffeds-have-enough-evidence-slap-hunter-biden-tax-gun-charges-wapo&sessionId=aac019f71d52d3fff5dd4133f949c9b9ada3ecaa&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

Hunter’s lawyer, Chris Clark, accused investigators of leaking information.

“It is a federal felony for a federal agent to leak information about a Grand Jury investigation such as this one,” he said in a written statement. “Any agent you cite as a source in your article apparently has committed such a felony. We expect the Department of Justice will diligently investigate and prosecute such bad actors. As is proper and legally required, we believe the prosecutors in this case are diligently and thoroughly weighing not just evidence provided by agents, but also all the other witnesses in this case, including witnesses for the defense. That is the job of the prosecutors. They should not be pressured, rushed, or criticized for doing their job.”

In any event, it seems like Hunter may face ‘justice’ over a sliver of his actual questionable dealings.

KING REPORT

The King Report October 6, 2022 Issue 6859

Independent View of the News

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ cartel recommended on Wednesday that the group should cut 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production for November.

White House launches last ditch effort to dissuade OPEC from cutting oil production to avoid a ‘total disaster’ – Some of the draft talking points circulated by the White House to the Treasury Department on Monday that were obtained by CNN framed the prospect of a production cut as a “total disaster” and warned that it could be taken as a “hostile act.”  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-launches-last-ditch-effort-to-dissuade-opec-from-cutting-oil-production-to-avoid-a-total-disaster/ar-AA12BqPj

FT: UAE likely to support oil production cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia at Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting in a blow to US efforts to try to stop the deal

US Gasoline Inventory Falls to Lowest Level in 8 Years – Bloomberg News (BN)
US Gasoline Inventory Falls, -4.7M Bbl, Lowest Since Nov. 2014… EIA Says… SPR Drain -6.194M

@EddieZipperer: Biden’s on track to practically empty our strategic oil reserves to get Democrats elected in November.  Cancelling the Keystone Pipeline was a history-book-level screw up.
https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1577658417807859712

The Big Guy will soon refill the SPR with oil that costs triple digits.

Biden Says OPEC+ Oil Output Cut Was Unnecessary: CNN
“I need to see what the detail is. I am concerned, it is unnecessary,” he said in response to a question from CNN’s Arlette Saenz as he departed the White House for Florida…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts

DOE to Deliver Another 10M BBL from SPR Next Month: White House – BBG 11:30 ET
Biden Will Continue SPR Releases as Appropriate: White House – BBG 11:31 ET (WH in panic!)

Reuters @davidshepardson: White House after OPEC+ decision: “At the President’s direction, the Department of Energy will deliver another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the market next month, continuing the historic releases the President ordered in March.”
https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/status/1577682114887270401/photo/1

Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: WH statement says POTUS will continue to direct releases from the strategic petroleum reserve as appropriate. Yesterday, @PressSec said such a move was not being considered.

The Big Guy suppressed oil and gasoline for political expediency. OPEC+ will now elevate oil and gasoline prices as a matter of self-interest and as political retaliation as The Big Guy’s SPR release.

White House Takes Closer Look at Controversial Gasoline Export Ban Option
White House officials have asked the US Energy Department to analyze the possible impacts of a ban on exports of gasoline, diesel and other refined petroleum products, an indication that the controversial idea is gaining traction in some parts of the Biden administration.
     The request follows a tense meeting between top administration officials and oil industry executives and comes amid growing concern that high gasoline prices pose a political threat to Democrats in the November elections… Recent polling shows gasoline prices, which remain stubbornly high in western states such as California, are a drag on Democratic candidates. Biden administration officials also have been concerned about low fuel inventories in the Northeast US…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/white-house-seeks-gasoline-export-limit-study-amid-price-fears

Biden Directing Energy Secretary to Explore Additional Responsible Actions to Increase Domestic Production – White House: BBG (Palpable panic!)

Biden Administration to Consult with Congress on Additional Tools and Authorities to Reduce OPEC’s Control over Energy Prices: White House (WH panic mushrooming!)

White House eyes antitrust action against OPEC: Argus
U.S. Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil – WSJ
BBG: Biden Calling on U.S. Energy Companies to Bring Gasoline Pump Price Down: White House

Gasoline Demand Rebounds in US Just as OPEC+ Moves to Cut Supply – BBG
Weekly gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, hit the highest level (9.465m Bbl) this year, surging past the five-year average, while gasoline inventories plunged to the lowest since November 2014…

BBG’s @annmarie: White House @PressSec: “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement.”

Russia could cut its oil production by as much as 3 million barrels per day if the EU and US proceed with a plan to cap prices, market experts have warned – Bloomberg

US Oil and Gas Association @US_OGA: “OPEC said no. The SPR option is all but gone now.   The White House has one option left. It’s the one they should have never turned away from in the first place. The US Oil and Gas industry and its workers. Life comes at you pretty fast….”

Fed’s Daly Says Future Market Wrong in Seeing 2023 Rate Cuts “I don’t see that happening at all…”

@unusual_whales: The last time the Fed fell this far behind the curve on inflation was 1975, and it took 8 years to bring under control: PIIE https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1577671995793330176

@zerohedge: According to ADP, median change in Annual Pay (for job-stayers) was 7.8% in Sept, up from 7.7% in Aug (revised from 7.6%) (See sticky wages!) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1577635097704124418

Bonds got hammered early on Wednesday. USZs hit -2 10/32 at 10:16 ET. The dollar soared; precious metals sank. Oil rallied modestly. As we noted in Wednesday’s missive, the afternoon reversal in bonds suggested that some type of top had formed.

ESZs hit a low of 3734.00 (-69.25) at 10:30 ET. They soared after Biden and the White House’s palpable panicky proposed and active intervention in the energy market. ESZs rallied almost vertically from noon ET (3747.25) to 13:22 ET (3799.25). The rally was so manic (~2% ❤ hrs.) that traders wondered if ‘friends of the program’ were active on behave of someone.

S&P 500 Well Off Lows as ‘Chunky’ Trade Hits Tape
“Around noontime a chunky derivatives trade hit the tape,” Wells Fargo & Co. strategists led by Christopher Harvey wrote. “Our desk characterized it as ‘one of the biggest trades I have seen in my career from a contracts perspective.’ The greeks of the trade are likely what gave a midday pop to the S&P 500.” The US equity benchmark trimmed a slide that approached 2% earlier in the day, with energy giants joining gains in oil after OPEC+’s big production cut…
https://www.yahoo.com/now/asian-stocks-extend-gains-us-002618059.html

One Big Option Trade Fueled S&P 500’s Midday Jump, Wells Fargo Says
The trade included buying 20,000 S&P 500 calls expiring in October with a strike price of 4,500 and 14,000 bullish contracts expiring in March at a strike of 4,300, while selling 48,000 calls maturing in January with an exercise price at 4,500 — a bet that essentially says stocks would rally in coming months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/wells-fargo-says-one-big-option-trade-fueled-s-p-500-midday-jump

Why would anyone execute a monstrously large derivatives trade on Yom Kippur when liquidity is anemic? Because someone wanted to force equities higher! Qui bono?

ESZs and stocks went inert after the ginormous derivative trade that was executed to blatantly push ESZs and stocks higher. Traders wondered who did trade and on whose behave was it done?

At 14:45 ET, ESZs and stocks inched higher for the pre-last hour rally. ESZs spiked higher when the final hour arrived. ESZs topped at 3820.00 (15:19 ET). They rolled over and then plunged into the close.

Swiss National Bank monitoring Credit Suisse situation – Maechler
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is following the situation at Credit Suisse closely, SNB Governing Board member Andrea Maechler told Reuters on Wednesday… “We are monitoring the situation,” Maechler said… “They are working on a strategy due to come out at the end of October.”…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/swiss-national-bank-monitoring-credit-suisse-situation-maechler/ar-AA12Ddst

GM delays return-to-office mandate after employee backlash
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/gm-delays-return-to-office-mandate-after-employee-backlash.html

A long-lasting problem from the Covid shutdowns and Team Biden’s socialism is the tumble in US productivity. It will take many years to rectify this problem.

Positive aspects of previous session
Team Biden’s announced and proposed intervention in the energy market saved stocks
A blatant manipulation via a ginormous options trade generated a 3%+ S&P 500 rally

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds got hammered
Team Biden is in panic over gasoline prices
Oil rallied 1.40 despite Team Biden’s interventions – Goldman forecasts $110 oil in Q4

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How high will oil and gasoline rise in coming weeks?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3771.07
Previous session High/Low: 3806.91; 3722.66

BN: Chicago Loses Another Corporate Presence with Tyson Departure – The move comes as Chicago struggles with rising crime, and with fewer downtown workers post-pandemic…

“Be Afraid, Be Actually Afraid”: Reporters Panic at The Thought of Twitter Restoring Free Speech Protections – Jon Turley
    The news that Musk might bring an end to Twitter’s extensive censorship system had previously drawn people back to the platform. However, the media is in full panic mode that the control over speech could be loosened with Musk. Twitter employees also previously panicked at the thought that they might lose some of their control over the speech of others.
    NBC News reporter Ben Collins quickly raised the most immediate concern that the sudden ability to speak freely on Twitter could impact the midterm elections: “For those of you asking: Yes, I do think this site can and will change pretty dramatically if Musk gets full control over it. No, there is no immediate replacement. If it gets done early enough, based on the people he’s aligned with, yes, it could actually affect midterms.”  Consider that for a second: the loss of control over political speech could mean a loss of control over the midterm elections. There is, of course, no concern by Collins that Twitter (and other social media companies) have long been “aligned” with Democrats and the Biden Administration…
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/10/05/be-afraid-be-actually-afraid-reporters-panic-at-the-thought-of-twitter-restoring-free-speech-protections/

GOP @RepMattGaetz: Many users are reporting several thousand lost followers on Twitter today. My account lost 16k.  Cleaning up bots before @ElonMusk’s purchase or another mass wave of censorship?

Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.7 percent on October 5, up from 2.3 percent on October 3… the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth (probably an inventory surge) increased from 0.7 percent and -4.1 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and -3.6 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 2.21 percentage points to 2.24 percentage points… (75bps rate hike getting backed in for Nov. 2) https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

HHS (US Dept. of HHS) purchases drug for use in radiological and nuclear emergencies
https://aspr.hhs.gov/newsroom/Pages/ARS-Oct2022.aspx

Today – Afternoon trading could be restrained by the looming September Employment Report. Astute traders will be very cautious today given the very bearish fundamentals being offset by Team Biden intervention in the energy market and the mysterious intervention in equities via a huge options trade.

After peaking at 3806.91 at 15:19 ET, the S&P 500 sank to 3777.75 at 15:59 ET. 3800 was decisively rejected by the market. 3800 on the S&P 500 Index will be the Maginot Line for traders today.

ESZs are +22.00 and USZs are +4/32 at 20:15 ET. Traders clearly understand that someone steadfastly wanted equities to trade higher on Wednesday; and traders wonder if they will be active today.

Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 203k, Continuing Claims 1.35m; Chicago Fed Pres Evans, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari, and Fed Gov Cook 13:00 ET, Fed Gov Waller 17:00 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4000; 100-day MA: 3960; 150-day MA: 4086; 200-day MA: 4199
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,810; 100-day MA: 31,699; 150-day MA: 33,438; 200-day MA: 33,122

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4745.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4065.22 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3806.04 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3696.21 triggers a sell signal

Ex-Hunter Biden business partner: FBI ‘altered history’ in handling of laptop before 2020 election
Tony Bobulinski suggested a net 21,500 voters in 3 states could have flipped the election to Trump in the absence of the Hunter’s story suppression
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hunter-biden-business-partner-fbi-altered-history-handling-laptop-before-election

@RNCResearch: Biden: “We didn’t lose our whole home, but lightning struck and we lost an awful lot of it.” According to a 2004 AP report, it was “a small fire…contained to the kitchen” that “was under control in 20 minutes.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1577737913164603395

@thejcoop: Yes, Joe Biden really stood in the wreckage of a historic hurricane and compared those folks’ experience with a kitchen fire he had once.

@RealMacReport: Wow!! Was that a (Biden) sniff? https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1577734451014008834

@townhallcom: Biden: “I got raised in the black church.”
“I got my education…in the black church.”
“I probably went to shul more than many of you did.”
“I was sort of raised in the Puerto Rican community at home, politically.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1577701247444201472

Biden’s Delaware visitors shrouded in mystery as Secret Service insists no records exist
Secret Service deputy director Faron Paramore wrote in a letter dated Sept. 27 that “the agency conducted an additional search of relevant program offices for potentially responsive records.” “This search also produced no responsive records… Accordingly, your appeal is denied.”…
     “If the Secret Service is doing its job, there has to be visitor records,” said Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch. “If there aren’t any records, the scandal is much bigger than just a lack of transparency.”…  https://nypost.com/2022/10/05/biden-delaware-visitors-shrouded-in-mystery-by-secret-service/

GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene @RepMTG: Dems have been coordinating with National Archives and Records Administration about documents leaving the WH since Dec 2020 and using NARA for more political warfare. And Biden’s DOJ has told NARA not to talk to Committee Republicans. NARA is on notice. Buckle up in ‘23.   https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1577439603820138496

CEO of US election software firm Konnech arrested for storing data on servers in China
Eugene Yu, the CEO of the software firm Konnech, has been arrested in connection to the storage of data on servers in China…
    It was on Monday that The New York Times ran an article claiming that “election deniers” had made Konnech the center of a “conspiracy theory.” The article claimed that these “election deniers” had used “threadbare evidence” to suggest that Konnech “had secret ties to the Chinese Communist Party and had given the Chinese government back door access to personal data about two million poll workers in the United States.”…
    On Tuesday, the Times had to write that Yu had been arrested, and that data collected by Konnech had indeed been stored on servers in China… https://t.co/zDw8zkxn4S

@PeterDClack: Carbon dioxide lags temperature by 800 years: making it impossible for this trace gas to cause global warming. Ice core studies show that CO2 – 4 molecules in every 10,000 – does not ’cause’ warming… it is a consequence of naturally occurring changes in the atmosphere. https://t.co/DweVnRswZ0

Greg Hunter

HARVEY