NOV 2/GOLD CLOSED UP 55 CENTS TO $1647.15//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 9 CENTS TO $19.59//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $3.05 TO $945.20//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $28.70 TO $1858.80//FOMC DISAPPOINTS EQUITIES (REPORT BELOW)COVID UPDATES: CHINA REAFFIRMS ITS ZERO COVID POLICY AS YESTERDAY WAS A TOTAL LIE//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//BIRD FLU HITS THE UK BIG TIME AS WELL AS AN IOWA FARM//UKRAINE: CITIZENS LINE UP FOR FRESH WATER THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AS THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE WAS DESTROYED//WHEAT FALLS AS RUSSIA RESUMES WHEAT SHIPPMENTS THROUGH THE BLACK SEA//PRIVATE ADP REPORT SHOWS THE USA ECONOMY SLOWLY RECOVERING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $0.55 to $1647.15

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN 9 CENTS  to $19.59

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1636.90

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.26

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $20,442 DOWN 39

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,518 UP 39

Platinum price closing  UP $17.25  AT  $948.25

Palladium price; closing UP $32.35  at $1887.60

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2243.34 DOLLARS UP 0.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1436.44 POUNDS PER OZ UP 3.13 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1666,26 EUROS PER OZ DOWN 1.01 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX//NOVEMBER 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,648.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/24/2022

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,645.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/01/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/03/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 400
132 C SG AMERICAS 24
190 H BMO CAPITAL 122
323 C HSBC 77
323 H HSBC 373
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 362
690 C ABN AMRO 12
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 9 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 9
880 H CITIGROUP 121
905 C ADM 22


TOTAL: 787 787

JPMORGAN STOPPED  781/1600 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    787 NOTICES FOR 78,700 OZ  or 2.4473 TONNES

total notices so far: 2817 contracts for 281,700 oz (8.7620 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  91 :  for 455,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $0.55

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 920.57 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF OF .092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.216 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 282 CONTRACTS TO 138,875 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.53 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.53)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1905 CONTRACTS.  HUGE SPECS TRIED TO COVER  THEIR SHORTFALLS // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS/

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH NO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A POWERFUL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:1.125 MILLION OZ/    / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: — 47

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 2140 contracts: 10.700 million oz  OR 5.35MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1070 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 10.700 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 10.7 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 285 DESPITE OUR  $0.53 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 2140 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1905 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 9.525 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 7  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  35,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2651 CONTRACTS  TO 467,276 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -407  CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $9.20//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY //  ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS .   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 55,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $9.20 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED GAIN OF4981 OI CONTRACTS 15.49 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2330 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,276

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3058 CONTRACTS  WITH 3058 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2330 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4981 CONTRACTS OR 15,49 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2330) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2651): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 4981 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 55,300 OZ //NEW STANDING 15.393 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

5035 CONTRACTS OR 503,500 OZ OR 15.660 TONNES 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2517 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 15.660 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  15.660/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.439% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  15.660 TONNES//INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED  282 CONTRACT OI TO  138.875 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 2140 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 2140  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2140 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  LOSS OF 235  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2140  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 1858  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9.240MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.53

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.17 PTS OR 1.15%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 371.90 OR  3.41%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 15.53 PTS OR 0.06%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.12%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2811 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3010//    /Oil UP TO 88.41, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.65    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2651  CONTRACTS TO 467,276 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS   COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $9.20  IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2330 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2330 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 2330  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2330 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 4,981  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2330 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3058  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $9.20//WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORTS COVERINGS  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (15.393),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 15.393 TONNES/INITIAL

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $9.20) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES//// SPEC SHORTS COVERED A SMALL PORTION OF THEIR  POSITIONS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4981 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED  16.758 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (15.393 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $9.20 

WE HAD -407  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4981 CONTRACTS OR 498100  OZ OR  15.49 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 199,696//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  204,080/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 2

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 47,996.739oz


Brinks
Delaware
HSBC
includes 9 kilobars
 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today787   notice(s)
78,700  OZ
2.4973 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)2132 contracts 
213200 oz
6.6314 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2817 notices
281,700
8.7620 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:4

i) Out of Delaware  7499.956 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 289.35   (9 kilobars)

iii) Out of HSBC:  40,207.433 oz

total:  233,455.097 oz

total in tonnes: 1.49 tonnes

Adjustments: 1// customer to dealer  HSBC:  96.45 oz   

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 2919 contracts having GAINED 203 contracts.   We had 350 notices served upon Monday so we gained a whopping 553

or an additional 55,300 will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December LOST 7333 contracts DOWN to 350,775.

JANUARY  gained 50 contracts to stand at 52.

February gained 9085 contacts up to 80,729.

We had 787 notice(s) filed today for 78,700 oz on the first day notice  FOR THE NOV. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 787 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 362 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2817) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 2919 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 787 x 100 oz per contract equals 494,900 OZ  OR 15.393 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2817) x 100 oz+   (2919)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (787} x 100 oz} which equals 494,900 oz standing OR 15.393  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  15.393 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,996,891.215 OZ   62.11 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,678,211.358 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,331,421.807  OZ (352.45 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,346,789.551 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,334,444 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 290.034 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 2//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory846,339.904 oz



CNT
 INT  Delaware
JPMorgan
DELAWARE










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory581,884.170 oz
Loomis
Delaware

 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)134 contracts 
(670,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)91 contracts
 (455,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  4 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Int. Delaware  142,297.260 oz

ii) out of Delaware:  19,319.270 oz

iii) Out of CNT:  100,706,924 oz

iv)_ Out of JPMorgan 584,016.400 oz

Total withdrawals:  846,339.904 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 154,725million oz/299.439 million =51.77% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 2

i) Into Delaware 1996.950 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 579,882.220 oz

total:  581,884.120  oz

 adjustments: 0

    dealer  to customer

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.711 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.439 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 141 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 61 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 73 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 651 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,597

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 69 CONTRACTS UP TO 1213 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:7 for 35,000   oz

Comex volumes:53,927// est. volume today// fair   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,548 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  91 x 5,000 oz = 455,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(141) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 91 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (141)  – number of notices served upon today (7) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,125,000 oz. .(CME TOTALS CORRECTED AGAIN) 

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:51,533// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60.788 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

 

GLD INVENTORY: 919.12 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.216 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

-END-

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is huge!! Central bank buying of gold: 399 tonnes!! And this is real gold not paper gold

(Reuters/GATA)

Record central bank buying lifts global gold demand, gold council says

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-31 23:14Section: Daily Dispatches

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Tuesday, November 1, 2022

LONDON — Central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the third quarter of 2022, helping to lift global demand for the metal, the World Gold Council said today.

Demand for gold was also strong from jewellers and buyers of gold bars and coins, the gold council said in its latest quarterly report, but exchange traded funds storing bullion for investors shrank.

Gold is typically seen as a safe asset for times of uncertainty or turmoil.

But many financial investors sold shares in gold-backed ETFs as interest rates rose and pushed up returns on other assets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://tinyurl.com/448r8spe

END

Who are the mystery buyers?  For sure China and Turkey and maybe Russia 

(Bloomberg News//GATA)

Who are the mystery buyers responsible for central bank gold boom?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-01 07:50Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 31, 2022

Central banks bought a record amount of gold last quarter as they diversified foreign-currency reserves, with a large chunk of the purchases coming from as yet unknown buyers.

Almost 400 tons were scooped up by central banks in the third quarter, more than quadruple the amount a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. That takes the total so far this year to the highest since 1967, when the dollar was still backed by the metal.

Bullion prices have been pressured this year by aggressive U.S. interest-rate hikes as the Federal Reserve tackles soaring inflation, which have prompted exchange-traded fund investors to sell the non-yielding asset. But support has come from other areas, such as retail buyers in Asia and central banks.

Central banks including Turkey and Qatar were among recent buyers, as well as unreported purchases from institutions — which, the WGC said, while not uncommon, amounted to a “substantial” estimate. Not all countries report their gold purchases regularly, including major ones like China and Russia. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-01/central-bank-gold-demand-booms-driven-by-mystery-buying

END

For your interest..

USA Gold’s ‘News & Views’ letter for November

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-01 10:27Section: Daily Dispatches

10:27a ET Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USA Gold’s “News & Views” letter for November, published today, has excerpts from 15 analysts commenting on gold, currencies, and the economy. The letter is headlined “Steady Wins the Race” and it’s posted in the clear at USA Gold here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

(courtesy Chris Marcus/Andy Schectman)

Andy Schectman: Silver demand driving premiums higher

With the silver premiums continuing to rise, and many products now facing delays, Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin joins me on the show to provide an update of the conditions in the retail physical silver market.

In this call he talks about the delays that are being seen throughout the industry on most silver products, how the refineries continue to struggle to keep up with demand, and how the majority of his orders continue to favor silver over gold.

He mentions that the people who are calling in to purchase silver are concerned about the events they see going on in the world, the persistent inflation, and how they don’t see an easy way out for the Federal Reserve. So as a result, they continue to turn to silver as a means of protection.

Silver dealers throughout the industry have described intense buying unlike any previous time, and one can only wonder how much longer this can go on for before there’s movement in the underlying spot price. So to find out more, click to watch this video now! (below)

https://lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=18059

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

Can The Dollar Once Again Be Anchored By Gold? One Congressman Believes It Can

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute,

On October 7, 2022, US congressman Alex Mooney (a Republican from West Virginia) introduced a bill (the Gold Standard Restoration Act, H.R. 9157) that stipulates that the US dollar must be backed by physical gold owned by the US Treasury. The initiative clearly indicates that the increasingly inflationary US dollar is triggering efforts to get better money.

It should be noted that there have already been many legislative changes to make precious metals more attractive as a means of payment in recent years: in many US states, the value-added and capital gains taxes on gold and silver, but also on platinum and palladium, have been abolished. Mr. Mooney’s proposal is divided into three sections.

The first section of the bill establishes the need for a return to a gold-backed US dollar. For example, it is said that the US dollar—or more precisely, the bill refers to “Federal Reserve Notes”—that is, banknotes issued by the US Federal Reserve (Fed)—has lost its purchasing power on a massive scale in the past: Since 2000, it has dropped by 30 percent, and since 1913 by 97 percent. The bill also argues that with an inflation target of 2 percent, the Fed will not preserve the purchasing power of the US dollar but will have it halved after just thirty-five years. Moreover, the bill points out that it is in the interest of US citizens and firms to have a “stable US dollar.” The bill highlights that the inflationary US dollar has been eroding the industrial base of the US economy, enriching the owners of financial assets, while endangering workers’ jobs, wages, and savings.

The second section of the bill describes in more detail the technical process for reanchoring the US dollar to the US official gold stock. It states that (1) the US secretary of the Treasury must define the US dollar banknotes using a fixed fine gold weight thirty days after the law goes into effect, based on the closing price of the gold on that day. The Fed must (2) ensure that the US banknotes are redeemable for physical gold at the designated rate at the Fed. (3) If the banks of the Fed system fail to comply with peoples’ exchange requests, the exchange must be made by the US Treasury, and in return, the Treasury takes the Fed’s bank assets as collateral.

The third section specifies how a “fair” gold price in US dollar can develop in an orderly manner within thirty days after the bill has taken effect. To this end, (1) the US Treasury and the Fed must publish all of their gold holdings, disclosing all purchases, sales, swaps, leases, and all other gold transactions that have taken place since the “temporary” suspension of the redeemability of the US dollar into gold on August 15, 1971, under the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. In addition, (2) the US Treasury and the Fed must publicly disclose all gold redemptions and transfers in the 10 years preceding the “temporary” suspension of the US dollar’s gold redemption obligation on August 15, 1971.

What to Make of This?

The bill’s core is the idea of reanchoring the US dollar to physical gold based on a fair gold price freely determined in the market. (By the way, this is an idea put forward by the economist Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) in the early 1950s.) In this context, the bill refers to US banknotes. However, banknotes only comprise a (fractional) part of the total US dollar money supply. But since US bank deposits can be redeemed (at least in principle) in US banknotes, not only US dollar cash (coins and notes) could be exchanged for gold, but also the money supply M1 or M2 as fixed and savings deposits could be exchanged for sight deposits, and sight deposits, in turn, could be withdrawn in cash by customers, and the banknotes could then be exchanged for gold at the Fed.

As of August 2022, the stock of US cash (“currency in circulation”) amounted to $2,276.3 billion. Assuming that the official physical gold holdings of the US Treasury amount to 261.5 million troy ounces, and the market expected US cash to be backed by the official US gold stock, a gold price of about $8,700 per troy ounce would result. This would correspond to a 418 percent increase compared to the current gold price of $1,680. If, however, the market were to expect the entire US money supply M2 to be covered by the official US gold stock, then the price of gold would move toward $83,000 per troy ounce—an increase of 4.840 percent compared to the current gold price. Needless to say, such an appreciation of gold has far-reaching consequences.

All goods prices in US dollars can be expected to rise (perhaps to the extent that the price of gold has risen). After all, the purchasing power of the owners of gold has increased significantly. Therefore, they can be expected to use their increased purchasing power to buy other goods (such as consumer goods, but also stocks, houses, etc.). If this happens, the prices of these goods in US dollar terms will be pushed up—and thus, the initial purchasing power gain that the gold dollar holders have enjoyed by being tied to the increased gold price will melt away again. Moreover, if US banks were willing to accept additional gold from the public in exchange for issuing new US dollar, reanchoring the US dollar in gold would increase the upward price effect.

A reanchoring of the US dollar in the US official gold stock will result in a far-reaching redistribution of income and wealth. In fact, it would be fatal for the outstanding US dollar debt: US dollar goods prices would rise, caused by a rise in the US dollar gold price at which the US dollar is redeemable for physical gold, thereby eroding the US dollar’s purchasing power. In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar would probably appreciate drastically against those currencies that are not backed by gold and against currencies which are backed by gold not as fine compared to the fineness of the gold backing of the US dollar. The purchasing power of the US dollar abroad would increase sharply, while the US export economy would suffer. US goods would become correspondingly expensive abroad, while foreign companies gain high price competitiveness in the US market.

Once the US dollar is reanchored in gold, today’s chronic inflation will end; monetary policy–induced boom-and-bust cycles will come to an end; the world will become more peaceful because financing a war in a gold-backed monetary system will be very expensive, and the general public will most likely not want to bear its costs. However, there is still room for improvement. A “Gold Standard Restoration Act” will deserve unconditional support if and when it paves the way toward a truly “free market for money.” A free market in money means that you and I have the freedom to choose the kind of money we believe serves our purposes best; and that people are free to offer their fellow human beings a good that they voluntarily choose to use as money.

In a truly free market, people will choose the good they want to use as money. Most importantly, in a truly free market in money, the state (as we know it today) loses its influence on money and money production altogether. In fact, the state (and the special interest groups that exploit the state) no longer determine which kind of gold (coins and bars, cast or minted) can be used as money; the state is no longer active in the minting business and cannot monopolize it anymore; there is no longer a state-controlled central bank to intervene in the credit and money markets and influence market interest rates. That said, let us hope that the Gold Standard Restoration Act proposed by Mr. Mooney will pave the way to reforming the US dollar currency system—and that it will eventually move us toward a truly free market in money.

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: URANIUM/ENERGY

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2811 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.3010

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.17 PTS OR  1.15%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 371.90 OR 2.41% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 15.53PTS OR 0.06%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  111.14/Euro FALLS TO 0.9888

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.243!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 147,06/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.128%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.285%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.218%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.568//

3j Gold at $1655.85//silver at: 19.76  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 30/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.54//

3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 147,06DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9973– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9861well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.044% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.102% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4870%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

 Futures Steady Ahead Of Fed Decision

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 08:10 AM

US equity futures were unchanged after two days of declines in underlying gauges as investors brace for today’s 2pm Fed interest-rate decision along with its monetary policy outlook (although a potentially more surprising treasury buyback announcement could come as soon as 830am when the Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding announcement). Contracts on the S&P 500 were little unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York. Stocks have stabilized after a drop in the S&P 500 on Tuesday that was triggered by a surprise surge in job openings. European stocks erased earlier gains while US-listed Chinese stocks rallied in premarket trading and the Hang Seng Index rose in a session cut short by a storm warning as growing speculation over China’s reopening spurred another rally in Asia. The US dollar dropped for the second day as the yen strengthened in a sign traders anticipate a muted impact of Fed tightening on the currency; 10Y yields traded unchanged around 4.04%.

All eyes will be on the Fed later, when the central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth time in a row; the question is what the Fed does in December and onward. Here is a summary of Fed rate-hike expectations from major banks for Sept and Dec:

  • Bank of America: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Barclays: 75 bps, 75 bps
  • Citigroup: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Deutsche Bank: 75 bps, 75 bps
  • JPMorgan Chase: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Goldman Sachs: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Morgan Stanley: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Wells Fargo: 75 bps, 50 bps

Goldman expects a more dovish 50bps Dec rate hike, but also a slower rise to peak as it has now added a 25bps rate hike in March which brings the Fed to 5.00%.

Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be key, especially after a 7.8% rally in the S&P 500 since Oct. 12, triggered mostly by expectations of easing in the central bank’s hawkish narrative given risks to economic growth. Our full FOMC preview can be found here.

“It’s a matter of balance here — the Fed doesn’t want to signal too much hawkishness, but also doesn’t want to sound too dovish as that would result in a huge leg up in share prices and too much of an easing in financial conditions,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Services. Oliver feels caution is still needed. “We may have seen the bottom in the share market and certainly sentiment has been very negative, but by the same token given recession risks and the yield curve continuing to invert in the US, that suggests risks are still high,” he said on Bloomberg TV.

“It’s a challenge for messaging because they don’t want to ease financial conditions significantly,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “They need tight financial conditions to keep cooling the economy off. So he doesn’t want to sound dovish, but he may want to go slower.”

“Continuation of the year-end rally is contingent on the Fed delivering on the pivot narrative,” said Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau, who see current market optimism as misplaced. “It feels premature for the Fed to loosen financial conditions via equity and bond markets — inflation is just too high.” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also warned that expectations the central bank would pivot were “badly misguided,” saying the Fed should “stay on the current course.”

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks rallied for the second day and were set to extend Tuesday’s gains, after new unverified social media posts claimed the government is considering a slew of changes to its Covid Zero policy, including a shorter quarantine period for inbound travelers. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices rose after topping profit estimates, but Airbnb slumped after its bookings outlook for the fourth quarter fell short of expectations. Apple shares slipped after China ordered a seven-day lockdown of the area around Foxconn Technology Group’s main plant in Zhengzhou, a move that will severely curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • AMD rose 4.9% after topping profit estimates as the semiconductor company’s expansion into the server processor market helped offset falling demand for chips used in PCs.
  • Airbnb shares decline 6% after giving a downbeat outlook for 4Q bookings. While analysts applauded the firm’s robust 3Q results, they also highlighted the moderately weaker prospects for the alternative accommodation specialist amid FX headwinds.
  • Arcturus Therapeutics shares surge 33% in US premarket trading after the biotech entered a collaboration and license agreement with a unit of CSL. The pact reduces execution risk, Cantor Fitzgerald says, prompting the broker to raise its price target.
  • Bally’s cut to hold at Stifel, which says macro, regulatory and development risks in the near-term force the broker into “capitulation” and a move to the sidelines. Shares decline 1.8%
  • Bandwidth shares jump 15% in US premarket trading after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue above the average analyst estimate and raised its full-year outlook.
  • Benefitfocus shares rise 48% to $10.35 in US premarket trading, after Voya Financial agreed to buy the company at $10.50 a share in cash.
  • Canada Goose cut its non-IFRS adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate. Shares declined as much as 3.6%.
  • Coty and L’Oreal declined after peer Estee Lauder’s second-quarter and full-year forecasts trailed consensus estimates, sinking the stock as much as 13% in premarket trading. Coty shares decline 2.8% and L’Oreal shares fell 1.7%.
  • Chegg jumps as much as 17.5% after the education-focused company reported better-than-expected third- quarter earnings and boosted its full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted Ebitda.
  • Match Group surges as much as 14.7% after the owner of dating apps including Tinder and OkCupid reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate and pledged to control costs. Analysts said that while 4Q and initial 2023 guidance were below expectations, they look achievable based on the current macro environment.
  • DuPont gain 3.6% in thin premarket trading after the company scrapped a planned $5.2 billion acquisition of Rogers Corp., a move which analysts say will bolster DuPont’s balance sheet and improve the scope for share buybacks.
  • Offerpad Solutions slump 3.8% in US premarket trading on Wednesday, ahead of the real estate firm’s third-quarter results due after the market close.
  • TFF Pharmaceuticals Inc. plunges 38% in premarket trading as studies of two inhaled powder therapies have been impacted by challenges tied to “staffing shortages, shipping, and global supply chain delays,” the company said in a release.
  • Tupperware shares plunged 33.4% after the company reported worse- than-expected third quarter results, including revenue and adjusted EPS that both missed analyst estimates.
  • Yum China shares jump 13.6% in US premarket trading after the restaurant operator reported flat same-store sales growth in the third quarter, enough to impress analysts who had expected a decline, given stringent Covid control measures in China.
  • ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) shares plunge as much as 22% as analysts cut their price targets following 3Q results. Despite a beat-and- raise, comments from the software company that the operating environment is becoming more challenging show that it could be susceptible to a slowdown in the economy, according to analysts, who see growth moderating next year.

European equities are mixed after euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since May 2020. Euto Stoxx 50 little changed, erasing earlier gains; the CAC 40 outperforms peers, while FTSE 100 and DAX lag. Healthcare stocks outperformed in Europe after Novo Nordisk A/S raised its operating profit and sales forecasts for the year; consumer products and personal care are among the best performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Sinch shares rally as much as 36% after 3Q results, with improved free cash flow, reduced net debt and prolonged short- term financing giving another boost to the heavily shorted stock.
  • Shares in Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas rose as much as 8.6%, the most since August, after positive pricing concealed a 3Q results miss which led to a 5.5% fall in early trading.
  • Novo Nordisk rises as much as 5.9%, hitting the highest since August, with analysts noting the Danish drugmaker’s guidance raise and its confirmation on the timeline for its Wegovy obesity treatment.
  • Hiscox climbs as much as 6.2%, the most since August, after the insurer reported smaller-than- anticipated Hurricane Ian losses and solid trading across the rest of its business.
  • Next Plc rises as much as 3.7% after maintaining its profit guidance, which is a “small positive read to the online retail space,” RBC said.
  • Demant falls as much as 15%, the most since mid August, after the company cut its full- year guidance.
  • VGP slumps as much as 12% after Barclays downgraded the real estate developer to underweight from overweight.
  • Maersk drops as much as 7.3%, with Citi noting that the shipping firm’s lower expectations for contract rates are likely to weigh on investor sentiment.
  • Smurfit Kappa declines as much as 5.1% in Dublin after results, with Goodbody analysts highlighting the company’s “challenging market conditions” and labor inflation pressures. Packaging peer DS Smith also slides.

Euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since 2020 and A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for global trade, cut its forecast for the global container market, saying inflation will persist even as demand drops as much as 4% this year. The company’s shares fell.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a three-day advance as growing speculation over China’s reopening spurred another strong rally, while traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, led by the consumer discretionary sector. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks drove gains in the region as investors scooped up shares following wide circulation of unverified posts outlining a loosening of the nation’s Covid Zero policy. Still, enthusiasm that sparked the rally in Chinese stocks could fade if authorities there don’t follow up on the speculation, Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note.

The Hang Seng Index had its best two-day run since March before the session was cut short by a storm warning; The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.8%, also capping its best two-day rally since March. Trading in Hong Kong closed earlier than usual due to a tropical storm.  Most other markets posted modest gains or declines as investors opted to wait and assess the Fed’s policy signals. Data on Tuesday showing a solid US labor market bolstered speculation that policy could remain aggressively tight even with the threat of a recession. The central bank is set to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row on Wednesday. 

In rates, Treasuries were mixed ahead of FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET, with long-end yields slightly cheaper on the day and front-end yields richer by ~3bp, steepening the curve as the 2-year yield fell by around 3bps and 30-year yields added 2bps. 10-year TSY yields were little changed around 4.04% as the curve steepens around the sector; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are wider by ~2bp and ~3bp on the day vs UK 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by ~9bp and ~13bp Broadly subdued price action compares with aggressive steepening in gilt curve, where 2- and 5-year UK yields are ~1bp richer on the day. Focus on Fed rate decision may limit price action over early US session; traders have been hedging prospect of Fed to hint at a slowdown in rate hikes for the December policy meeting over the past couple of weeks The quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am is viewed as having limited potential for auction size changes and may signal progress toward a buyback program. Bunds bear-flattened, as yields rose up to 4bps. Italian bond yields rose by around 5bps across the curve.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by around 0.2% as the greenback was steady or weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers amid positioning ahead of today’s Fed meeting. SEK and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and JPY outperform

  • The euro staged a slight rebound to trade around $0.99 after two days of losses against the dollar.
  • The pound was steady around $1.15 while front-end gilts rallied, sending 2- year yields down by around 11bps
  • The yen led G-10 gains along with New Zealand’s currency; the yen rose a second day versus the dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda told parliament the nation’s economy is no longer in deflation since the central bank started its current easing program, though added that inflation was seen slowing in fiscal year 2023; minutes of the BOJ’s September meeting noted it was desirable to keep an easing bias
  • The kiwi and sovereign yields advanced as unemployment stayed near a record low in the third quarter while wages surged.

In commodities, wheat futures fell after Turkey’s Erdogan said grain shipments via the Ukraine corridor would resume.  oil traded near $88 a barrel ahead of the Fed rate decision. West Texas Intermediate futures pared an earlier gain to trade little changed with prices stuck in a $12 band over the last month. Glencore Plc officials delivered cash in private jets to officials in west Africa, UK prosecutors said as they laid out a web of bribery and corruption orchestrated by the London oil trading desk. President Joe Biden’s threat to slap a tax on oil-company profits is more bluster than threat as the clock runs out on the administration’s efforts to tame fuel prices ahead of midterm elections. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $1,656/oz as traders mull the possibility of a rate-hike slowdown.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,877.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 416.07
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 139.99
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 448.01
  • Nikkei little changed at 27,663.39
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,940.46
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 15,827.17
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,003.37
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 60,846.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,986.66
  • Kospi little changed at 2,336.87
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.81/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,652.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 111.18
  • German 10Y yield up 0.5% to 2.14%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $0.9902

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Overnight volatility rallies for the major currencies as traders position for the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision later Wednesday. Pound hedging costs lead the race as the Bank of England also meets Thursday
  • The Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate increase with Chair Jerome Powell repeating his resolute message on inflation and opening the door to a downshift — without necessarily pivoting yet
  • Euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since the first Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 as record inflation and a weakening global economy erode demand for goods
  • German companies have never been so concerned about sales as they struggle with the energy crisis and a gloomy world economy, and they fear the worst is yet to come, a survey found
  • People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang gave an optimistic outlook for the economy on Wednesday, saying it remains “broadly on track” and he hoped the property market can achieve a “soft landing”

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious and price action mostly rangebound after the lacklustre handover from the US where strong JOLTS data spurred a more hawkish Fed terminal rate pricing and as markets await the FOMC. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors but with upside capped after PM Albanese rejected providing cash handouts and with the property industry pressured after home loans and building approvals fell. Nikkei 225 was indecisive as earnings releases remained in focus and officials continued their currency jawboning. KOSPI wiped out nearly all its early gains amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea reportedly fired at least 10 missiles and which was the first time its missiles fell near South Korea’s territorial waters. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually extended their recent rumour-driven surge regarding China reopening despite the denial by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson and with officials pledging policy support measures, while Hong Kong markets were closed after half-day due to a storm signal 8.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC Governor Yi said China’s economy is broadly on track and potential growth is to remain in a reasonable range, and noted that inflation remains subdued and accommodative monetary policy is to support the economy. PBoC Governor Yi added that they will continue to improve the business environment, while they will deepen supply-side reforms and step up targeted support for key and weak sectors, according to Reuters.
  • China state planner official said China’s foreign investment increased steadily so far this year and will encourage more foreign investment in the manufacturing industry, according to Reuters.
  • China locked down the area around the world’s largest iPhone factory, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ September Meeting Minutes stated a few members said they need to be vigilant to the impact monetary tightening by some central banks could have on global markets, while several members said a weak yen could hurt households, small firms and non-manufacturers. Members agreed that Japan’s economy is picking up and several members said the BoJ must communicate to the public its monetary policy does not directly target FX moves.
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that the financial system remains resilient but added some households and businesses will be challenged by the rising interest rate environment, while it also stated that there are increasing downside risks to the global economic outlook and the extent to which the economic activity will slow due to monetary policy tightening remains uncertain. Furthermore, the RBNZ later stated it will consider tightening policy faster or slower at the Monetary Policy Statement.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says it will expand the imports of advanced technology, key equipment and components, and increase imports of energy and agricultural products in short supply, via a Party Congress supplementary reading cited by Reuters.

European bourses are mixed as the initial positive bias faded amid downward PMI revisions and increasing geopolitical tensions, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%. Health Care is the outperforming sector after Q3 earnings from GSK (+1.6%) and Novo Nordisk (+4.5%), more broadly sectors are mixed with no overarching bias. US futures are similarly contained but have been less reactive to the geopolitical and PMI developments as participants remain firmly affixed on the Fed, ES Unch. & NQ +0.2%. A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) expect a slowdown of the global economy to lead to softer market in ocean. Cuts FY22 global container demand forecast to -2% to -4%. Freight rates have begun normalising during Q3; Maersk -5.0%. Moody’s downgrades the outlook for the banking sector in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, to negative from stable; citing energy crisis, high inflation, and rising rates, via Reuters.

Top European News

  • Germany’s DIHK says German companies are bracing for another economic slump in the next 12 months; 52% of firms see business worsening in the next 12 months; says German GDP should be +1.2% in 2022 and -3% in 2023,
  • Germany’s VDMA engineering orders in Sep -5% Y/Y (Domestic -4%, Foreign Orders +8%); in first 9M orders +1% Y/Y (Domestic -3%, Foreign +2%)
  • Next Sales Better Than Expected Despite UK’s Costs Crisis
  • Vestas Cuts Outlook Again as Wind Turbine Industry Spirals
  • North Korea Fires 17 Missiles in Biggest-Ever Daily Barrage
  • Novo Boosts Sales Forecast on Demand for Obesity Drug Wegovy
  • Sampo 3Q Pretax Profit Misses Estimates; Decides on Dual Listing
  • Britishvolt Says Loan Gives EV Battery Startup Weeks of Runway

FX

  • USD is under modest pressure as we count down to the FOMC, action which is benefiting peers across the board with the antipodeans and JPY currently the main beneficiaries.
  • DXY has slipped to a 111.12 low from earlier highs above the 111.50 mark, with brief respite for the USD occurring alongside the NY Times article re. Russia.
  • EUR/USD relatively unreactive to the morning’s PMI revisions, downbeat commentary and numerous surveys out of Germany featuring a similar narrative, single currency holding around 0.9900.
  • NZD outpaces and has lifted to a test of the 0.59 mark, where the current WTD peak resides, following domestic data which seemingly keeps hawkish impulses in focus.
  • JPY is the next best performer given its haven status and after BoJ Minutes noted several members said a weak yen could hurt; USD/JPY probing but yet to lose 147.00.
  • BoC Governor Macklem said they expect the policy rate will need to rise further and how much further rates will go up depends on how monetary policy is working, how supply chains are resolving and how inflation is responding to tightening. Macklem added that there are no easy outs to restoring price stability and reiterated the tightening phase will draw to a close and they are getting close but are not there yet.

Fixed Income

  • EGBs are modestly pressured with yields a touch higher as such, though the complex is currently relatively contained ahead of a busy PM docket incl. the FOMC.
  • USTs are essentially flat with yields incrementally steeper but similarly contained as such; note, the pre-FOMC docket is busy and features ADP alongside Quarterly Refunding.
  • Back to Europe, Bunds and peers haven’t been too reactive to the downbeat PMI releases/commentary, with Bunds also conscious of upcoming Green supply; 10yr yield continues to lift from 2.10%.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks have given up their USD and China induced APAC upside amid downbeat commentary from Maersk and the EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are incrementally softer on the session and in proximity to the USD 88/bbl and USD 94/bbl handles for WTI and Brent respectively.
  • Spot gold is deriving support from the USD’s pullback and renewed geopolitical focus on both N.Korea and Russia, with the yellow metal having surpassed its 10-DMA but currently capped by the 21-DMA at USD 1659/oz; base metals similarly firmer on the USD action and overnight trade.
  • Russia’s Kremlin exports of Russian fertiliser was an integral part of grain deal, but difficulties remain; says Russia’s participation in the deal remains suspended, via Reuters; prior to this, Turkish President Erdogan said the Russian Defence Minister told his Turkish counterpart the the grain deal will resume; grain deal will resume on mid-day Wednesday.
  • Most recently, Russia is to resume participation in the Black Sea grain deal, according to Reuters citing the Defence Ministry; it was possible to obtain written guarantees from Kyiv not to use grain corridor for military operations against Russia.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said they need reliable, long-term defence for the grain corridor and that Russia must be told it will receive a firm world response if it takes steps to disrupt Ukrainian food exports, according to Reuters.
  • Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to NYT citing sources, President Putin was not part of the conversations; “The intelligence about the conversations was circulated inside the U.S. government in mid-October.”.
  • North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total from the east and west coasts on Wednesday the initial rounds of which prompted South Korea to place its Ulleung Island under an air raid warning and was the first time North Korean missiles fell near the South’s territorial waters, according to Yonhap and YTN.
  • South Korean President Yoon ordered a swift and firm response and South Korea launched air-to-ground missiles which were fired towards the north of the maritime border, while South Korea closed some air routes off the east coast of the Korean peninsula after North Korea’s missile launches, according to the Transport Ministry cited by Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.7%
  • 08:15: Oct. ADP Employment Change, est. 185,000, prior 208,000
  • 14:00: Nov. FOMC Rate Decision

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we arrive at the latest decision day for the Fed, any remaining hopes of a dovish pivot continued to fizzle out over the last 24 hours, with futures once again pricing in a terminal fed funds rate above 5%. The main driver behind that was another round of US data yesterday, which showed that labour markets were tighter and the economy was in better shape than previously thought, which in theory should give the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. In turn, that prompted a big turnaround for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.41%) losing ground for a second day running, whilst 10yr Treasury yields shot up by more than +15bps intraday after the releases came out.

Ahead of those releases, there had actually been a strong rally across multiple asset classes thanks to speculation that China might ease up on their Covid restrictions (more on which below). But the latest data caused a sharp reversal shortly after US markets opened, particularly given the news that US job openings had unexpectedly risen in September to 10.717m (vs. 9.750m expected), alongside an upward revision to the August number. That means there were still 1.86 job openings per unemployed worker in September, which is creating significant inflationary pressures, and suggests that the decline in job openings in August to a one-year low might have been a blip. On top of that, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs (which is strongly correlated with wage growth) remained at 2.7% for a third month running.

Just as the labour market appeared to be in surprising strength, there was an additional dose of optimism about the economy from the ISM manufacturing reading for October, which came in at 50.2 (vs. 50.0 expected). Although it’s true that was the weakest reading since May 2020, it was still a touch better than expected and came amidst improvements in the employment (50.0) and new orders (49.2) components relative to last month, which gave further ground for optimism. In addition, the final manufacturing PMI for October was revised up half a point from the flash reading to 50.4, leaving it back above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction.

When it comes to today’s policy decision, the Fed are widely expected to hike rates by 75bps for a fourth consecutive meeting. But the more important question for markets today (and where there’s considerably more doubt) is whether the Fed might signal a downshift in the pace of hikes at subsequent meetings. This is a tricky balancing act for them, since any signal of a pivot risks leading to easier financial conditions that makes their job of bringing down inflation even harder. That was what happened after the July meeting, where investors interpreted matters in a dovish light, and the Fed had to reiterate their hawkish intent, culminating in Chair Powell’s August speech at Jackson Hole. Our US economists write in their preview (link here) that Chair Powell’s press conference will likely not pre-judge the outcome of the December meeting and will emphasise the data dependence of the decision, not least with another couple of CPI reports and jobs reports beforehand. They expect him to leave open the prospects of another 75bp hike in December, but present a strong base case for downshifting the pace of hikes by early 2023 at the latest.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, markets moved to ratchet back up their expectations of how high they’re set to take rates over the coming months. Indeed, the rate priced in by end-2023 moved up another +9.9bps to 4.66%, which brings its gains over the last 3 sessions to +37.1bps and means that the bulk of the move lower after October 21 thanks to Nick Timiraos’ WSJ article has now reversed. In light of that, 2yr Treasuries yield gained +6.2bps on the day to reach 4.54%, with the moves higher occurring entirely after those strong US data releases mentioned above. The 10yr Treasury yield (-0.6bps) did close slightly lower at 4.04%, but that was still more than +10bps above its intraday levels prior to the releases and in overnight trading they’re back up +0.9bps to 4.05%. Over in Europe, sovereign bonds followed a similar pattern over the day, with a sharp intraday reversal following the US data, although yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-0.1bps) and BTPs (-3.5bps) still ended the session lower.

Those expectations of a more hawkish Fed led to a reversal for equities too, and the S&P 500 (-0.41%) swiftly gave up its gains after the open to fall back for a second consecutive session. Tech stocks led the declines once again, and there was a significant milestone for the FANG+ index (-0.95%) of megacap tech stocks, with the index closing at a 2-year low, having now shed -45.65% since its peak just under a year ago. European equities ended the day in positive territory, albeit only after giving up a decent chunk of their earlier gains, with the STOXX 600 moving from an intraday peak of +1.51% to only close up +0.53%.

That earlier momentum had been propelled in large part thanks to speculation about a potential end to Covid restrictions in China, with that backdrop seeing the CSI 300 post its strongest daily performance since March yesterday. The moves were triggered by unconfirmed posts on social media that China was forming a committee which would look at relaxing restrictions, with a suggestion for reopening in March 2023. However, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that he was “not aware of what you mentioned” when asked about the issue at a press briefing on Tuesday.

Overnight in Asia, that continued speculation about a policy reversal has seen a fresh outperformance in a number of equity indices, with the Hang Seng (+2.50), the CSI 300 (+1.48%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.29%) all recording solid gains. That’s in spite of the absence of any official confirmation about a change in China’s policy. Elsewhere, some of the other indices have been more mixed, with the Nikkei (-0.10%) slightly lower and the Kospi (+0.24%) recording a modest advance, although US futures are pointing in a more positive direction, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.32% ahead of the Fed’s decision.

On the data side, there were some fresh indications of global inflationary pressures overnight, with South Korea’s CPI inflation seeing its first rebound in three months as it rose to +5.7% as expected, whilst core CPI surpassed expectations to hit a 13-year high of +4.8% (vs. 4.5% expected). In the meantime, we also heard from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda who reiterated their dovish policy, saying that they were not thinking of rate hikes or changing their yield curve control policies now.

Back in the US, we’re now less than a week away from the mid-term elections on Tuesday, and momentum has remained with the Republicans in recent days. According to FiveThirtyEight’s model, they now have a 51% chance of taking the Senate, which is up from 30% only six weeks ago, whilst the chances of them regaining the House now stand at 83%.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. In the meantime, ECB speakers today include Makhlouf, Villeroy and Nagel. On the data side, we’ll get October data on German unemployment, the final Euro Area manufacturing PMIs, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for the US. Finally, earnings releases include Qualcomm, CVS Health and Booking Holdings.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

European bourses are mixed; North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total; Russian-Ukraine grain deal resumes – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 06:42 AM

  • European bourses are mixed as the initial positive bias faded amid downward PMI revisions and increasing geopolitical tensions
  • US futures similarly contained and less reactive to the above factors pre-FOMC
  • DXY under modest pressure to the benefit of G10 peers with antipodeans and JPY outpacing, EGBs/USTs contained with a slight negative bias
  • Crude benchmarks have given up their USD and China induced APAC upside amid downbeat commentary from Maersk and the EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs.
  • North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total from the east and west coasts on Wednesday
  • Ags in focus amid two-way commentary from Russian and Turkish officials
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Services & Composite PMI (Final), FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are mixed as the initial positive bias faded amid downward PMI revisions and increasing geopolitical tensions, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%.
  • Health Care is the outperforming sector after Q3 earnings from GSK (+1.6%) and Novo Nordisk (+4.5%), more broadly sectors are mixed with no overarching bias.
  • US futures are similarly contained but have been less reactive to the geopolitical and PMI developments as participants remain firmly affixed on the Fed, ES Unch. & NQ +0.2%.
  • A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) expect a slowdown of the global economy to lead to softer market in ocean. Cuts FY22 global container demand forecast to -2% to -4%. Freight rates have begun normalising during Q3; Maersk -5.0%.
  • Moody’s downgrades the outlook for the banking sector in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, to negative from stable; citing energy crisis, high inflation, and rising rates, via Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • USD is under modest pressure as we count down to the FOMC, action which is benefiting peers across the board with the antipodeans and JPY currently the main beneficiaries.
  • DXY has slipped to a 111.12 low from earlier highs above the 111.50 mark, with brief respite for the USD occurring alongside the NY Times article re. Russia.
  • EUR/USD relatively unreactive to the morning’s PMI revisions, downbeat commentary and numerous surveys out of Germany featuring a similar narrative, single currency holding around 0.9900.
  • NZD outpaces and has lifted to a test of the 0.59 mark, where the current WTD peak resides, following domestic data which seemingly keeps hawkish impulses in focus.
  • JPY is the next best performer given its haven status and after BoJ Minutes noted several members said a weak yen could hurt; USD/JPY probing but yet to lose 147.00.
  • BoC Governor Macklem said they expect the policy rate will need to rise further and how much further rates will go up depends on how monetary policy is working, how supply chains are resolving and how inflation is responding to tightening. Macklem added that there are no easy outs to restoring price stability and reiterated the tightening phase will draw to a close and they are getting close but are not there yet.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9700 (1.1BN), 0.9725 (702M), 0.9790-00 (1.12BN), 0.9820-25 (1.0BN), 0.9850-60 (755M), 0.9870 (290M), 0.9900 (862M), 1.0000 (2.05BN), 1.0050 (438M), 1.0075 (647M)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs are modestly pressured with yields a touch higher as such, though the complex is currently relatively contained ahead of a busy PM docket incl. the FOMC.
  • USTs are essentially flat with yields incrementally steeper but similarly contained as such; note, the pre-FOMC docket is busy and features ADP alongside Quarterly Refunding.
  • Back to Europe, Bunds and peers haven’t been too reactive to the downbeat PMI releases/commentary, with Bunds also conscious of upcoming Green supply; 10yr yield continues to lift from 2.10%.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks have given up their USD and China induced APAC upside amid downbeat commentary from Maersk and the EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are incrementally softer on the session and in proximity to the USD 88/bbl and USD 94/bbl handles for WTI and Brent respectively.
  • Spot gold is deriving support from the USD’s pullback and renewed geopolitical focus on both N.Korea and Russia, with the yellow metal having surpassed its 10-DMA but currently capped by the 21-DMA at USD 1659/oz; base metals similarly firmer on the USD action and overnight trade.
  • Russia’s Kremlin exports of Russian fertiliser was an integral part of grain deal, but difficulties remain; says Russia’s participation in the deal remains suspended, via Reuters; prior to this, Turkish President Erdogan said the Russian Defence Minister told his Turkish counterpart the the grain deal will resume; grain deal will resume on mid-day Wednesday.
  • Most recently, Russia is to resume participation in the Black Sea grain deal, according to Reuters citing the Defence Ministry; it was possible to obtain written guarantees from Kyiv not to use grain corridor for military operations against Russia.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Germany’s DIHK says German companies are bracing for another economic slump in the next 12 months; 52% of firms see business worsening in the next 12 months; says German GDP should be +1.2% in 2022 and -3% in 2023,
  • Germany’s VDMA engineering orders in Sep -5% Y/Y (Domestic -4%, Foreign Orders +8%); in first 9M orders +1% Y/Y (Domestic -3%, Foreign +2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Oct) 6.6% (Prev. 5.7%)
  • German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Sep) 3.7B vs. Exp. 0.7B (Prev. 1.2B); Unemployment Rate SA (Oct) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.5%)
  • EU S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI (Oct) 46.4 vs. Exp. 46.6 (Prev. 46.6); “The eurozone goods-producing sector moved into a deeper decline at the start of the fourth quarter. The PMI surveys are now clearly signalling that the manufacturing economy is in a recession.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is in very tight parameters just above the USD 20k mark as broader market focus is firmly on the FOMC announcement later today.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said they need reliable, long-term defence for the grain corridor and that Russia must be told it will receive a firm world response if it takes steps to disrupt Ukrainian food exports, according to Reuters.
  • Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to NYT citing sources, President Putin was not part of the conversations; “The intelligence about the conversations was circulated inside the U.S. government in mid-October.”.

OTHER

  • North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total from the east and west coasts on Wednesday the initial rounds of which prompted South Korea to place its Ulleung Island under an air raid warning and was the first time North Korean missiles fell near the South’s territorial waters, according to Yonhap and YTN.
  • South Korean President Yoon ordered a swift and firm response and South Korea launched air-to-ground missiles which were fired towards the north of the maritime border, while South Korea closed some air routes off the east coast of the Korean peninsula after North Korea’s missile launches, according to the Transport Ministry cited by Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious and price action mostly rangebound after the lacklustre handover from the US where strong JOLTS data spurred a more hawkish Fed terminal rate pricing and as markets await the FOMC.
  • ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors but with upside capped after PM Albanese rejected providing cash handouts and with the property industry pressured after home loans and building approvals fell.
  • Nikkei 225 was indecisive as earnings releases remained in focus and officials continued their currency jawboning.
  • KOSPI wiped out nearly all its early gains amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea reportedly fired at least 10 missiles and which was the first time its missiles fell near South Korea’s territorial waters.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually extended their recent rumour-driven surge regarding China reopening despite the denial by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson and with officials pledging policy support measures, while Hong Kong markets were closed after half-day due to a storm signal 8.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC Governor Yi said China’s economy is broadly on track and potential growth is to remain in a reasonable range, and noted that inflation remains subdued and accommodative monetary policy is to support the economy. PBoC Governor Yi added that they will continue to improve the business environment, while they will deepen supply-side reforms and step up targeted support for key and weak sectors, according to Reuters.
  • China state planner official said China’s foreign investment increased steadily so far this year and will encourage more foreign investment in the manufacturing industry, according to Reuters.
  • China locked down the area around the world’s largest iPhone factory, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ September Meeting Minutes stated a few members said they need to be vigilant to the impact monetary tightening by some central banks could have on global markets, while several members said a weak yen could hurt households, small firms and non-manufacturers. Members agreed that Japan’s economy is picking up and several members said the BoJ must communicate to the public its monetary policy does not directly target FX moves.
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that the financial system remains resilient but added some households and businesses will be challenged by the rising interest rate environment, while it also stated that there are increasing downside risks to the global economic outlook and the extent to which the economic activity will slow due to monetary policy tightening remains uncertain. Furthermore, the RBNZ later stated it will consider tightening policy faster or slower at the Monetary Policy Statement.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says it will expand the imports of advanced technology, key equipment and components, and increase imports of energy and agricultural products in short supply, via a Party Congress supplementary reading cited by Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Building Approvals (Sep) -5.8% vs. Exp. -7.0% (Prev. 28.1%, Rev. 23.1%); Home Loans MM (Sep) -8.2% vs Exp. -3.0% (Prev. -2.7%)
  • New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q3) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.5%; Unemployment Rate (Q3) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.3%)
  • New Zealand Labour Cost Index – YY (Q3) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.4%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.17 PTS OR 1.15%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 371.90 OR  3.41%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 15.53 PTS OR 0.06%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.12%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2811 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3010//    /Oil UP TO 88.41, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.65    / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/RUSSIA

END

3c CHINA

CHINA

So much for that stupid rumour:  Beijing confirms zero Covid policy

(zerohedge)

China Reopening Rumors Dispelled As Beijing Confirms Zero Covid Policy

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 08:58 AM

Update:

So much for all those rumors on social media about China reopening…

China’s National Health Commission has just released a statement that said it would adhere to zero Covid policy. It will also strive to control epidemics with the smallest scope, shortest time, and lowest cost. 

It is necessary to thoroughly implement the CPC Central Committee’s “Decision on Earnestly Studying, Propagating and Implementing the Spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China”, refine the implementation plan based on the actual situation, and carry out in-depth learning and propaganda activities in various forms to fully demonstrate the study and implementation of the Party’s principles in the field of health and wellness. The profound thinking and vivid practice of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China have ensured that the cause of health care will always move forward successfully in the correct political direction.

The meeting called for the full implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and focus on the tasks of “promoting the construction of a healthy China”. We must be prudent and pay close attention to the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, unswervingly adhere to the general strategy of “foreign import, internal rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, resolutely implement the “four early” requirements, and strive to minimize Scope, shortest time, and lowest cost to control sudden outbreaks.

China ETF FXI trimmed gains to less than 1% on the news. 

This also led to a slump in US equity futures. 

* *  *

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks powered higher for the second session on unverified social media posts that claim a government committee has been established to roll out a plan to reopen China in March 2023. 

Bloomberg reported an unverified post, first shared on the instant messaging platform WeChat with analysts and fund managers, shared a screenshot that claimed Wang Huning, one of the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, held a meeting on Sunday at the request of the President Xi Jinping with Covid-19 experts, possibly paving the way to reopen China. 

“Speeding up a conditional opening plan, with the goal of substantially opening by March next year,” the screenshot said. 

The post went viral in China and has garnered attention on Twitter. Hong Kong-based economist Hong Hao tweeted:

Another unverified post said Beijing is expected to hold a meeting at the end of the week to ease quarantine requirements.  

Traders have been searching for any excuse to buy beaten-down Chinese stocks — and apparently, unverified social media posts are all it took. Bloomberg data shows the multi-day rally has led to more than $450 billion in gains in the MSCI China Index. 

When stocks crashed last week after the Communist Party congress granted President Xi Jinping a third term, JPMorgan’s strategist Marko Kolanovic urged investors to buy the dip

Any confirmation about reopening by authorities could result in a more sustainable upside for Chinese stocks and strengthen the yuan. 

Investors are piling into Chinese stocks based on speculation and rumor. One must be cautious about investing in speculation. It can end very badly if not confirmed. But again, this is just another example of stock markets being giant casinos… 

end 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

All UK captive birds have been ordered to be indoors amid the largest ever bird flu outbreak

(zerohedge)

UK Orders All Poultry And Captive Birds Indoors Amid “Largest Ever” Bird Flu Outbreak

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Authorities in the UK have ordered all captive birds and poultry to be kept indoors due to concerns over avian influenza.

The stepped-up measures from the UK’s chief veterinary officer make the housing measures a legal requirement, and are accompanied by stringent biosecurity measures to protect flocks from disease, Sky News reports.

The rules come into force one minute past midnight on Monday, November 7th, giving owners one week to prepare.

It comes after the national risk of bird flu in wild birds was raised to ‘very high’, and the whole of Great Britain was made a bird flu prevention zone two weeks ago.

Chief veterinary officer Christine Middlemiss said: “We are now facing this year the largest ever outbreak of bird flu and are seeing rapid escalation in the number of cases on commercial farms and in backyard birds across England. -Sky News

“The risk of kept birds being exposed to disease has reached a point where it is now necessary for all birds to be housed until further notice,” Middlemiss continued. “Scrupulous biosecurity and separating flocks in all ways from wild birds remain the best form of defence.”

All bird owners must follow the rules, whether they keep ‘a few, or thousands,’ she added.

“This decision has not been taken lightly, but is the best way to protect your birds from this highly infectious disease.”

The Department for the Environment and Rural Affairs reports that housing birds reduces the risk of infection.

That said, housing alone will not protect the birds, and keepers are instructed to implement enhanced biosecurity measures laid out earlier this month to prevent the disease from spreading. The measures include restricting access for non-essential people on site, and ensuring that workers change clothing and footwear before entering bird enclosures. Vehicles must also be disinfected regularly.

The UK Health Security Agency says the risk to public health remains unchanged.

end

AUSTRIA

Times are changing as populist governments are gaining strength.  Now Austria’s anti immigration, anti sanctions freedom party,FPO, in a dead heat for first place in the polls

(Cody/Remix news)

Austria’s Anti-Immigration, Anti-Sanctions Freedom Party Now Tied For 1st Place In Polls

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Is Austria in store for a political earthquake?

As Europe faces the twin challenges of an economic and immigration crisis, parties across Europe known for their strong stance against mass migration are seeing a massive boost in popularity, and Austria is no different. Now, a new poll shows the conservative Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) tying for the top spot for the first time since 2017.

This summer, the left-wing SPÖ was still leading in all the polls by up to 8 percentage points, but the party is currently suffering a substantial drop in support, according to a wave of new polls, including one from the Lazarsfeld Society which shows the FPÖ party, led by Herbert Kickl, is now tied for first place with the SPÖ at 26 percent. In second is the conservative ÖVP at 21 percent, which currently rules the country in a coalition with the Green Party, which is at 11 percent.

Herbert Kickl, the leader of FPÖ, is enjoying a surge in support over his twin stances against migration and sanctions on Russia.

It is also not the only poll showing the FPÖ jumping in popularity, with Politico’s poll of polls putting the FPÖ within two points of the SPÖ.

As Remix News previously reported, the left-wing SPÖ performed poorly in regional elections in Tyrol, while the FPÖ outperformed, with the results there serving as a bellwether for the rest of the nation. However, since that vote last month, the immigration crisis facing the country has only worsened, and the parties in power have shown that they have few solutions to halt uncontrolled immigration into the country.

“Austria is currently heavily burdened by illegal migration. The contribution that we are making in Europe is disproportionately high. The EU’s migration policy has failed. There is still no strong protection of the European Union’s external borders, and the reality of the problem is being ignored,” the ÖVP leader, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, said earlier this month to Austrian newspaper Kronen Zeitung.

Austria had already received more than 56,000 asylum applications as of August and experts expect a new record of applications this year, even dwarfing the refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016.

FPÖ is only major party against Russia sanctions

However, it is not only the migrant wave that is driving support for the FPÖ. The party has been aggressively calling for an end to sanctions on Russia, even demanding a referendum on ending all sanctions be held.

“It’s finally time to appear in the EU and say: These sanctions harm us much more than Putin. Our people have to foot the bill for them,” said deputy FPÖ chairwoman Dagmar Belakovich in the plenary session of the National Council. 

The party’s leader, Herbert Kickl, has also pointed to the absolute necessity of Russian energy for Austria’s households and businesses. Inflation surged to 10.5 percent in September, mostly due to soaring energy prices.

“If you were honest, you would have to say to the population: We can’t do without this Russian oil and gas for a long time,” said Kickl. 

“We need this cheap energy for households, for heating, for cooking, for hot water, for manufacturing companies.” He has argued that the government cannot compensate for this.

In another worrying sign for the ruling government, 40 percent of Austrians want new elections, with only 20 percent of those surveyed currently considering the government’s cooperation to be “stable and good.”

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany has seen a similar bump in its polling numbers over the same issues of migration and sanctions, although its rise has not been as quite as dramatic. The FPÖ ultimately faces fewer obstacles to power in Austria, with far more support from the populace as well as a history of governing in coalitions in the past.

end

Ridiculous!

(Jonathan Turley)

EU Warns Twitter Not To Restore Free Speech Protections After Calls From Clinton & Other Democratic Leaders

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have been discussing how Democratic leaders like Hillary Clinton called on foreign companies to pass censorship laws to prevent Elon Musk from restoring free speech protections on Twitter. The EU has responded aggressively to warn Musk not to allow greater free speech or face crippling fines and even potential criminal enforcement. After years of using censorship-by-surrogates in social media companies, Democratic leaders seem to have rediscovered good old-fashioned state censorship.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) declared Musk’s pledge to restore free speech values on social media as threatening Democracy itself. She has promised that “there are going to be rules” to block such changes. She is not alone. Former President Obama has declared “regulation has to be part of the answer” to disinformation.

For her part, Hillary Clinton is looking to Europe to fill the vacuum and called upon her European counterparts to pass a massive censorship law to “bolster global democracy before it’s too late.”

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern recently repeated this call for global censorship at the United Nations to the applause of diplomats and media alike.

EU censors have assured Democratic leaders that they will not allow free speech to break out on Twitter regardless of the wishes of its owner and customers.

One of the most anti-free speech figures in the West, EU’s Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton has been raising the alarm that Twitter users might be able to read uncensored material or hear unauthorized views.

Breton himself threatened that Twitter must “fly by [the European Union’s] rules” in censoring views deemed misleading or harmful by EU bureaucrats. Breton has been moving publicly to warn Musk not to try to reintroduce protections that go beyond the tolerance of the EU for free speech. Musk is planning to meet with the EU censors and has conceded that he may not be able resist such mandatory censorship rules.

The hope of leaders like Clinton is the anti-free speech measure recently passed by EU countries, the Digital Services Act. The DSA contains mandatory “disinformation” rules for censoring “harmful” thoughts or views.

Breton has made no secret that he views free speech as a danger coming from the United States that needs to be walled off from the Internet. He previously declared that, with the DSA, the EU is now able to prevent the Internet from again becoming a place for largely unregulated free speech, which he referred to as the “Wild West” period of the Internet.

It is a telling reference because the EU views free speech itself as an existential danger. They reject the notion of free speech as its own protection where good speech can overcome bad speech. That is viewed as the “Wild West.”

Many of us are far more fearful of global censors than some whack job spewing hateful thoughts from his basement. That is why I have described myself as an Internet Originalist:

The alternative is “internet originalism” — no censorship. If social media companies returned to their original roles, there would be no slippery slope of political bias or opportunism; they would assume the same status as telephone companies. We do not need companies to protect us from harmful or “misleading” thoughts. The solution to bad speech is more speech, not approved speech.

If Pelosi demanded that Verizon or Sprint interrupt calls to stop people saying false or misleading things, the public would be outraged. Twitter serves the same communicative function between consenting parties; it simply allows thousands of people to participate in such digital exchanges. Those people do not sign up to exchange thoughts only to have Dorsey or some other internet overlords monitor their conversations and “protect” them from errant or harmful thoughts.

The danger of the rising levels of censorship is far greater than the dangers of such absurd claims of the law or science — or in this case both. What we can do is to maximize the free discourse and expression on the Internet to allow free speech itself to be the ultimate disinfectant of disinformation.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Civilians are now waiting in long lines for fresh water as all parts of Ukraine’s infrastructure has been destroyed.

Ukraine Civilians Wait In Long Lines For Fresh Water As Infrastructure Destroyed

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 05:45 AM

There is an old lesson of warfare that says “never believe your own propaganda.” 

After the initial Russian strikes against Ukraine’s power grids and infrastructure the general narrative was that Russian cruise missiles and drones were ineffective, inaccurate and that the country’s utilities would be back up and running in no time.  The message was reticent of previous propaganda out of Ukraine which requires constant theatrics of impending victory.  As long as they act as if they are winning, billions in NATO dollars will continue to flow.

Russian tactics were decidedly restrained in the early months of the conflict, with the Kremlin mostly avoiding precision attacks on vital resources, including power, water and internet.  This is a departure from traditional military doctrine, which the US followed when it invaded Iraq and decimated vast segments of their grid utilities at the onset of the war. 

The Russian pull-back to lines in the Donbas region was a clear indication that their strategy was about to change and that wider strikes were inevitable. 

Now, Ukraine’s grid amenities are being systematically destroyed, and it is reported that Ukrainians in major cities like Kyiv are lining up for blocks daily just to fill a few meager jugs with fresh water at city well pumps.

The lack of access to utilities changes the dynamics of the war drastically. 

With winter looming, millions of civilians will face cold months without electric heat, light or easy access to water and food. 

The predictable end result of this will likely be a flood of refugees into Europe. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-civilians-wait-long-lines-fresh-water-infrastructure-destroyed

END          

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Ukraine grain shipments resume as Russia rejoins the deal as wheat plummets in price

(zerohedge0

Ukraine Grain Shipments Resume As Russia Rejoins Deal, Wheat Futures Tumble

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 09:32 AM

Wheat futures tumbled on Wednesday morning statements from Russia saying it has agreed to return to the Turkey and UN-brokered grain deal to allow for the continued export of Ukrainian grain through a Black Sea ‘safety corridor’. 

Moscow said it has returned to the deal after receiving assurances that Ukraine will not use the maritime safety corridor for military purposes. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed it has received “sufficient” guarantees from the Ukrainian government that it will demilitarize the humanitarian corridor, following last week Russia saying its ships had come under drone attack.

“Russia considers that the received guarantees are at the moment sufficient and is resuming the implementation of the agreement,” the ministry said. The vital deal is set to be renewed in mid-November after nearly 10 million tons of grains and other foodstuffs have been sent through it since it was implemented in the summer. Russia announced it had pulled out on Saturday, resulting in a diplomatic scramble to find a way forward.

Further, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his parliament that “shipments will continue from 12:00 today as planned,” which had followed a call between Turkish and Russian defense ministers. 

A flurry of calls between capitals laid the groundwork for restoration of the deal, after the United Nations, the EU, and international food monitors warned that blockage of millions of tons of Ukraine grain exports could unleash famine on heavily dependent parts of the globe, such as in Africa and the Middle East. 

French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Zelensky, while Turkey’s Erdogan spoke to President Putin. The Russian leader conveyed to Erdogan in the Tuesday call that he’s seeking “real guarantees from Kyiv about the strict observance of the Istanbul agreement, in particular about not using the humanitarian corridor for military purposes.”

Bloomberg: Chicago wheat futures plunged as much as 6.3%, the most since July, after surging in the first two days of the week. 

Macron and Zelensky agreed that lack of an export safety corridor “again harms global food security” – while Kiev accused Russia of using security concerns in the Black Sea as a “false pretext” to withdraw from the deal.

Commenting on these allegations of Moscow ‘weaponizing food’, Oksana Antonenko, director at Control Risks in London, said “Putin wants to compel the West to negotiate with him as soon as possible to freeze the conflict, his direct proposals did not work, so he is resorting to other strategies like talking about Ukrainian dirty bomb, threatening nuclear escalation or pulling out from the grain deal…all to get them around the table with him. But it remains that “So far it did not work and I think will not work, at least in the near future.” Speculation over the fate of the deal has resulted in prior weeks of volatility and extreme uncertainty impacting agricultural markets.

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

US forces now on the ground in Ukraine

Robert Hryniak10:46 AM (2 hours ago)
to

Call what you want, many foreign troops are now in the Ukraine fighting in a undeclared war against Russia. And unlike so many countries before it, Russia 

is a nuclear power who is capable of defending itself. One does wonder if those Foreign troops fight solely for sport and money or really think that this is war against poorly equipped Opponents where they deliver the might. If one looks at Modern Warfare then they surely are tempting fate with their own lives. As Russian artillery and rockets do not care. This also suggests that the Ukrainians are running low on their own people to send to death.

In typical Russian fashion they are not hiding that they are prepared to defend themselves. We are getting very close to a Cuban Missile crisis Moment where political leadership is sadly absent. Who can believe that a Demented teleprompter reader can lead? And as for the European crowd their economies are failing faster than their ability to skate on balderdash. And in so doing they search for a simple scapegoat called War and Russia happens to be the first such target of aggression. So simple, they think to blame Russia for their past political and economic errors in the hopes of maintaining power. What remains forgotten is that all wars require economies to back up the effort. And in Europe’s case they are fast losing their ability to produce and with that their ability to have a standard of living remotely similar to what existed prior to Covid. With clear and visible deflationary forces at work all manner of European asset classes will soon circle the drain as liquidity dries up. And if actual announced war breaks out they Europe will be thrown back many a decade if it ever recovers. And no doubt this winter and next the bite of cold days and nights will take a toll as gas prices continue to be high and supply short. With nest winter likely to have lesser supply than this winter. 

Meanwhile in America the real impact of inflation an every day American life is such that half of the small businesses in America are suffering with rental increases that are least 10% higher than they were a year ago and 37% of all small businesses were unable to pay rent in October. This is a shocking number. And this is not consistent across the country has the largest number of businesses unable to meet their rental bills are in California and in New York. It is safe to assume that perhaps as much as 1/3 of all  small businesses are in danger of falling further into debt and being unable to pay their bills on a timely basis.  This is also occurring in the restaurant business we’re almost 50% of all restaurants run able to pay their rent in the month of October and this is even affect, car dealerships and repair shop owners who are defaulting on their rental bills in ever greater numbers.

And if you thought the problems are only in America or in Europe you may not have caught that the North Koreans decided to do some missile launches off the coast of South Korea yesterday. It is likely that you will see that we will all see continued provocations in the Pacific both by North Korea and by China. The one to watch is China because China is very well aware that if Russia were to fall or be splintered by current efforts they would be the next target. And so whatever they and others need to do to have Russia’s back one should realize that the world is more divided today than ever before. And at a time when little effort is being put into rebuilding economies and thus creating true value in the global economy. And in the case of China we have yet to see the real ramifications of their real estate mess. And no doubt this will impact global markets in ways not expected. The world economy is in a mess everywhere. 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//

A must view:  Nouriel Roubini warns of an economic catastrophe

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/roubini-world-war-iii-has-already-effectively-begun

“It’s Already Happening” – Roubini Warns “World War III Has Effectively Begun”

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 08:25 PM

Economist Nouriel Roubini, who’s been dubbed ‘Dr. Doom’ for his gloomy-yet-correct prediction of the 2008 market meltdown, is making headlines again during a series of interviews promoting his new book “Megathreats”.

“We have to worry about everything at the same time, as all these megathreats are interconnected…”

When asked if we’re “there again” in reference to the 2008 great financial crisis, Roubini replied: “Yes, we’re here again.”

“But in addition to the economic, monetary, and financial risks – and there are new ones – now we’re going towards stagflation like we’ve never seen since the 1970s.”

Private and public debt levels globally have exploded from 200 percent of GDP in 2000 to around 350 percent of GDP today, he said, blaming ultra-loose central bank policies that made borrowing cheap and encouraged households, businesses, and countries to take on ever greater debt loads even though many were barely solvent.

But now, facing persistently high inflation, central banks led by the Fed have embarked on aggressive rate hiking cycles, with Roubini predicting that highly indebted and operationally fragile “zombie” institutions are going to go bankrupt.

“That’s why we’re not only going to have inflation and stagflation but we’ll have a stagflationary debt crisis,” Roubini predicted.

In the 1970s, debt levels were far lower than today and so advanced economies didn’t suffer debt crises when the Fed jacked up rates to around 20 percent.

“Today we have the worst of the 70s with a massive amount of stagflationary negative supply shock,” he added.

Roubini has called predictions for a brief and mild U.S. recession “delusional.”

He told Bloomberg in an interview at the end of July that he expects the United States to be hit by a “severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis.”

Roubini said that, in addition to economic, monetary, and financial risks currently in play, the world faces higher geopolitical risks.

During an extensive interview with Der Spiegel, the economist said he preferred “Dr. Realist” as he detailed some of the world’s most acute problems.

When speaking about major global threats, Roubini mentioned the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, adding that Iran and Israel are “on a collision course” as well.

It is already happening. The U.S. has just passed new regulations banning the export of semiconductors to Chinese companies for AI or quantum computing or military use. Europeans would like to continue doing business with the U.S. and China, but it won’t be possible because of national security issues.”

“…just this morning, I read that the Biden administration expects China to attack Taiwan sooner rather than later. Honestly, World War III has already effectively begun, certainly in Ukraine and cyberspace.

He believes that a breakup of the globalized world is looming.

“Trade, finance, technology, internet: Everything will split in two,” he predicted.

Finally, Roubini said debt levels are higher than they’ve ever been, adding that all this represents a confluence of “mega trends” that he predicts will combine into a stagflationary storm that will engulf many of the world’s economies.

The economist said that the worst possible outcome would be if all eleven “mega trends” materialize and feed on each other, leading to a “dystopian future.”

“It’s not just the end of the world economy… it could be even global war.”

Recalling a recent event hosted by the IMF, Roubini referred to historian Niall Ferguson who “said in a speech there that we would be lucky if we got an economic crisis like in the 1970s — and not a war like in the 1940s.”

After all that, we think ‘Dr. Doom’ remains a more appropriate nickname.

*  *  *

Read the full Der Spiegel interview below:

DER SPIEGEL: Professor Roubini, you don’t like your nickname “Dr. Doom.” Instead you would like to be called “Dr. Realist.” But in your new book, you describe “ten megathreats” that endanger our future. It doesn’t get much gloomier than that.

Roubini: The threats I write about are real – no one would deny that. I grew up in Italy in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, I never worried about a war between great powers or a nuclear winter, as we had détente between the Soviet Union and the West. I never heard the words climate change or global pandemic. And no one worried about robots taking over most jobs. We had freer trade and globalization, we lived in stable democracies, even if they were not perfect. Debt was very low, the population wasn’t over-aged, there were no unfunded liabilities from the pension and health care systems. That’s the world I grew up in. And now I have to worry about all these things – and so does everyone else.

DER SPIEGEL: But do they? Or do you feel like a voice crying in the wilderness?

Roubini: I was in Washington at the IMF meeting. The economic historian Niall Ferguson said in a speech there that we would be lucky if we got an economic crisis like in the 1970s – and not a war like in the 1940s. National security advisers were worried about NATO getting involved in the war between Russia and Ukraine and Iran and Israel being on a collision course. And just this morning, I read that the Biden administration expects China to attack Taiwan sooner rather than later. Honestly, World War III has already effectively begun, certainly in Ukraine and cyberspace.

DER SPIEGEL: Politicians seem overwhelmed by the simultaneity of many major crises. What priorities should they set?

Roubini: Of course, they must take care of Russia and Ukraine before they take care of Iran and Israel or China. But policymakers should also think about inflation and recessions, i.e. stagflation. The eurozone is already in a recession, and I think it will be long and ugly. The United Kingdom is even worse. The pandemic seems contained, but new COVID variants could emerge soon. And climate change is a slow-motion disaster that is accelerating. For each of the 10 threats I describe in my book, I can give you 10 examples that are happening as we speak today, not in the distant future. Do you want one on climate change?

DER SPIEGEL: If you must.

Roubini: This summer, there have been droughts all over the world, including in the United States. Near Las Vegas, the drought is so bad that bodies of mobsters from the 1950s have surfaced in the dried-up lakes. In California, farmers are now selling their water rights because it’s more profitable than growing anything. And in Florida, you can’t get insurance for houses on the coast anymore. Half of Americans will have to eventually move to the Midwest or Canada. That’s science, not speculation.

DER SPIEGEL: Another threat you describe is that the U.S. could pressure Europe to limit its business relations with China in order to not endanger the U.S. military presence on the continent. How far are we from that scenario?

Roubini: It is already happening. The U.S. has just passed new regulations banning the export of semiconductors to Chinese companies for AI or quantum computing or military use. Europeans would like to continue doing business with the U.S. and China, but it won’t be possible because of national security issues. Trade, finance, technology, internet: Everything will split in two.

DER SPIEGEL: In Germany, there is a dispute right now about whether parts of the Port of Hamburg should be sold to the Chinese state-owned company Cosco. What would your advice be?

Roubini: You have to think about what the purpose of such a deal is. Germany has already made a big mistake by relying on energy from Russia. China, of course, is not going to take over German ports militarily, as it could in Asia and Africa. But the only economic argument for this kind of agreement would be that we could strike back once European factories are seized in China. Otherwise, it’s not a very smart idea.

DER SPIEGEL: You warn that Russia and China are trying to build an alternative to the dollar and the SWIFT system. But the two countries have failed so far.

Roubini: It’s not just about payment systems. China is going around the world selling subsidized 5G technologies that can be used for spying. I asked the president of an African country why he gets 5G technology from China and not from the West. He told me, we are a small country, so someone will spy on us anyway. Then, I might as well take the Chinese technology, it’s cheaper. China is growing its economic, financial and trading power in many parts of the world.

DER SPIEGEL: But will the Chinese renminbi really replace the dollar in the long run?

Roubini: It will take time, but the Chinese are good at thinking long term. They have suggested to the Saudis that they price and charge for the oil they sell them in renminbi. And they have more sophisticated payment systems than anyone else in the world. Alipay and WeChat pay are used by a billion Chinese every day for billions of transactions. In Paris, you can already shop at Louis Vuitton with WeChat pay.

DER SPIEGEL: In the 1970s, we also had an energy crisis, high inflation and stagnant growth, so-called stagflation. Are we experiencing something similar now?

Roubini: It is worse today. Back then, we didn’t have as much public and private debt as we do today. If central banks raise interest rates now to fight inflation, it will lead to the bankruptcy of many »zombie« companies, shadow banks and government institutions. Besides, the oil crisis was caused by a few geopolitical shocks then, there are more today. And just imagine the impact of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which produces 50 percent of all semiconductors in the world, and 80 percent of the high-end ones. That would be a global shock. We depend more on semiconductors today than on oil.

DER SPIEGEL: You are very critical of central bankers and their lax monetary policy. Is there any central bank that gets it right these days?

Roubini: They are damned either way. Either they fight inflation with high policy rates and cause a hard landing for the real economy and the financial markets. Or they wimp out and blink, don’t raise rates and inflation keeps rising. I think the Fed and the ECB will blink – as the Bank of England has already done.

DER SPIEGEL: On the other hand, high inflation rates can also be helpful because they simply inflate the debt away.

Roubini: Yes, but they also make new debt more expensive. Because when inflation rises, lenders charge higher interest rates. One example: If inflation goes from 2 to 6 percent, then U.S. government bond rates will have to go from 4 to 8 percent to keep bringing the same yield; and private borrowing costs for mortgages and business loans will be even higher. This makes it much more expensive for many companies, because they have to offer much higher interest rates than government bonds, which are considered safe. We have so much debt right now that something like this could lead to a total economic, financial and monetary collapse. And we’re not even talking about hyperinflation like in the Weimar Republic, just single digit inflation.

DER SPIEGEL: The overriding risk you describe in your book is climate change. Isn’t rising debt secondary in light of the possible consequences of a climate catastrophe?

Roubini: We have to worry about everything at the same time, as all these megathreats are interconnected. One example: Right now, there is no way to significantly reduce CO2 emissions without shrinking the economy. And even though 2020 was the worst recession in 60 years, green house gas emissions only fell by 9 percent. But without strong economic growth, we will not be able to solve the debt problem. So, we have to find ways to grow without emissions.

DER SPIEGEL: Given all these parallel crises: How do you assess the chances of democracy surviving against authoritarian systems like in China or Russia?

Roubini: I am worried. Democracies are fragile when there are big shocks. There is always some macho man then who says »I will save the country« and who blames everything on the foreigners. That’s exactly what Putin did with Ukraine. Erdogan could do the same thing with Greece next year and try to create a crisis because otherwise he might lose the election. If Donald Trump runs again and loses the election, he could openly call on white supremacists to storm the Capitol this time. We could see violence and a real civil war in the U.S. In Germany, things look comparatively good for now. But what happens if things go wrong economically and people vote more for the right-wing opposition?

DER SPIEGEL. You have become known not only as the crash prophet, but also as a party animal. Do you still feel like partying these days?

Roubini: I always hosted art, culture, and book salons, not just social events. And during the pandemic I rediscovered my Jewish roots. Today, I prefer to invite 20 people to a Shabbat dinner with a nice ceremony and live music. Or we do an evening event where I ask a serious question and everyone has to answer. Deep conversations about life and the world at large, not chitchat. We should enjoy life, but also do our bit to save the world.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

Roubini: All of our carbon footprints are much too big. A significant part of all greenhouse gas emissions alone come from livestock farming. That’s why I became a pescatarian and gave up on meat, including chicken.

DER SPIEGEL: You used to be famous for being on the road for three-quarters of the year.

Roubini: I still do travel nonstop. But I will tell you one thing: I love New York. During the pandemic, I didn’t flee to the Hamptons or Miami like many others. I stayed here, I saw the Black Lives Matter demonstrations, I volunteered to help the homeless. I saw daily the desperation of many artist friends who lost jobs and incomes and couldn’t afford their rent. And even if there is another hurricane like Sandy in New York that could lead to violence and chaos, I will stay. We have to face the world as it is. Even if there is a nuclear confrontation. Because then the first bomb would fall on New York and the next one on Moscow.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES:  FOOD INFLATION

Russell Clark is one smart cookie.  Please read what he has to say on food inflation

(Russell Clark)

Food Inflation Revisited

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 06:30 AM

By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack

Food inflation has continued to surprise to the upside in the US.

That food inflation has not calmed down in recent months is somewhat surprising as we have seen weakness in commodity food prices in recent months.

Taking a long-term view, you could also convince yourself that food prices have topped out, and food deflation is more likely.

However, well before Ukraine became an issue, Chinese food prices were driving global food prices higher. In 2019, China suffered from Asian Swine Flu which destroyed much of China’s pig herd. China has more pigs than the rest of the world combined

As China rebuilt its herd, but this required large imports of pork and corn. Pork is essentially processed corn, with 4kg of corn needed to produce 1kg of pork. China in 2021 became the biggest importer of US corn, but now these imports are falling.

Currently there is no sign of African Swine Flu returning to China, but in recent months we have seen Chinese pork prices surge again.

So why are pork prices rising? The simple reason is that Chinese pork prices fell too low versus domestic corn prices, and without corn prices falling, eventually pork prices had to rise.

So Chinese pork prices have normalised relative to Chinese corn prices. The problem for the US and the rest of the world is that China now draws on global pork markets. Despite its best efforts to boost domestic supplies, China is still a large importer of pork from the US.

Why does this matter? Because currently US producers of pork are disincentivised to produce pork with the US pork to corn ratio at levels where either pork prices rise, or corn prices have to fall.

With pork price in China now three times US prices, my guess is that pork prices rise, and push food prices higher again.

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Zachary Stieber, brilliant reporting as usual: “EXCLUSIVE: CDC Officials Told They Spread Misinformation but Still Didn’t Issue Correction: Emails”; FOIA, CDC officials were alerted that they spread..

misinformation about child COVID-19 deaths but still did not issue corrections, according to emails; they were told that statistics from a preprint study they shared were wrong; CROOKED CDC as usual!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 2
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
ENDIncreased cancer & COVID gene injection vaccine (especially mRNA Pfizer & Moderna): “Dr. Michel Goldman, immunologist, explains how Covid vaccine shot can worsen cancer (e.g. his); SHARYL ATTKISSONDr. Ryan Cole and Dr. Bhakdi are and were correct in that the COVID vaccines are deranging the immune system and causing an explosion of cancers in remission or causing massive metastasisNOV 2 SAVE▷  LISTEN

VACCINE INJURY/

Shock Swiss Study Shows All COVID Vaccine Recipients Have Some Heart Damage | Fellow American Daily

Robert Hryniak2:54 PM (37 minutes ago)
to

My goodness what had been done to society at large ?

END

The Mortality Rate Is Up 17% Across The Vaccinated World – GreatGameIndia

Robert Hryniak3:25 PM (7 minutes ago)
to

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Is the Public Being Conditioned for the Next COVID Scam with a “Lab Escaped” Killer Mutant Virus?

November 1, 2022 5:22 pm

“Viruses May Be Watching You – Lying in Wait Before Multiplying and Killing,” read a recent headline at SciTechDaily. The article goes on with its apocalyptic warnings: “Viruses may be ‘watching’ you – some microbes lie in wait until their hosts unintentionally give them the signal to start multiplying and kill them. Especially after more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, many people picture a virus as a nasty spiked ball – essentially a mindless killer that gets into a cell and hijacks its machinery to create a gazillion copies of itself before bursting out. For many viruses, including the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the mindless killer moniker is essentially true.” Wow! Who knew that viruses could be so intelligent, and actually participate in premeditated murder of its hosts? Well here’s the problem: it’s all fake. Stuff like this might happen in science fiction movies or TV series, but in real life there is zero evidence of such intelligence in viruses. The sole purpose of publishing such fiction in a pseudo-scientific publication is to create FEAR, which then can be leveraged to sell PRODUCTS, such as vaccines. And that might be exactly what is happening today, as recent headlines in the corporate media are claiming that “new strains” of the COVID “virus” are being developed in laboratories with deadly “kill rates” of up to 80%. With so many people carrying around blood clots and weakened hearts from the COVID-19 vaccines, it would be reasonable to expect that a surge in deaths and illnesses in the weeks ahead could be attributed by the “health authorities” to something new, like a lab-escaped “mutant virus” to bring about new emergency measures to develop new drugs and vaccines for this “new variant.” And these “leaked” news stories about lab-created “killer COVID-19 viruses” could very well be readying the masses in the public who still trust the corporate media and the corrupt government alphabet agencies to accept this new scam.

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Spikes After Pentagon Predicts Iran Attack On Saudi Arabia Likely In “48 Hours”, Iran Denies

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 12:21 PM

Following Tuesday’s WSJ report revealing that Saudi Arabia and its ally the United States are on high alert over a potential impending attack from Iran, the Pentagon has narrowed its assessment, saying there’s credible threat of an attack “soon or within 48 hours.”

Oil prices spiked more than $2 on this new “48 hours” intelligence, which the Pentagon reportedly received from the Saudis, hammering tech stocks further. A subsequent and quite expected denial from Iran…

*IRAN DISMISSES REPORTS IT’S PLANNING ATTACK ON SAUDI, REGION

…  because what will Iran say: “yup, you got us, we are about to launch an attack”, reversed some of today’s sharp gains.

The Biden administration reaffirmed that it will not hesitate to respond… “We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis,” the National Security Council said in a statement. “We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region.”

“We’re in regular contact with our Saudi partners, in terms of what information they may have to provide on that front,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told the AP in fresh statements. “But what we’ve said before, and I’ll repeat it, is that we will reserve the right to protect and defend ourselves no matter where our forces are serving, whether in Iraq or elsewhere,” he added.

According to more via the AP report:

One of the officials who confirmed the intelligence sharing described it as a credible threat of an attack “soon or within 48 hours.” No U.S. embassy or consulate in the region has issued alerts or guidance to Americans in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere in the Middle East based on the intelligence. The officials were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran has allegedly attacked northern Iraq with dozens of ballistic missiles and armed drones in recent weeks, one of which was shot down by a U.S. warplane as it headed toward the city of Erbil, where American troops are based. Tehran has publicly blamed Iranian Kurdish separatist groups based there for fomenting the unrest at home.

Iranian authorities have also publicly accused Saudi Arabia, along with the U.S. and Israel, of instigating the demonstrations.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

A dangerous escalation as the uSA deploys six nuclear capable B 52 bombers to Australia and lcose to the Chinese shores

(zerohedge)

end

BRAZIL

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.9888 DOWN    0.0011 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY RED

USA/ YEN 147.06   DOWN  0.827 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1501 UP   0.0012

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 34/17 PTS OR 1.15% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  UP 371.90 POINTS OR 2.41% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.12%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 371.90 PTS OR 2.41%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 34.17 PTS OR 1.15%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 15.53PTS OR 0.06%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1654.85

silver:$19.70

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 111.14 DOWN 0.22 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.13% UP B1  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% DOWN 0 AND 6/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.24%// UP 4 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.28  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.132%  UP 1 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98627  DOWN  .0015   or 15 basis points//

USA/Japan: 147.11 DOWN .806 OR YEN UP 81 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1452 DOWN .0037 OR  37 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0020 OR 20 BASIS pts  to 1.3640

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.2898

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.3171

TURKISH LIRA:  18.62  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at  4.038% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.086 DOWN 4  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 111.46 UP 10 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 37.82 PTS OR  0.53%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 80.90 POINTS OR 0.61%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 54.16 PTS OR 0.86% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 36.40 OR  0.46%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 14.70 PTS OR  0.06%

WTI Oil price 90.16 12: EST

Brent Oil:  96.04   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.80DOWN 0  AND 56/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.132

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.4245

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98445 DOWN .0034    OR  34  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1417 DOWN  .0017 or  17 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.415% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.78 DOWN0.104//YEN UP 10 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3689 UP 0.0066  (CDN dollar, DOWN 66 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 89.71

Brent OIL:  95.28

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.071%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 4.123%

USA dollar index:111.75 UP .39 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.62

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.80  DOWN 0 AND  56/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 506.43 PTS OR 1.55 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 382.61 PTS OR 3.39%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.77 DOWN 0.04 PTS (0.15)%

GLD: $152,39 DOWN 1.53 OR 1.01%

SLV/ $17.74  DOWN $0.43 OR 2.445%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Powell Pulls Rug Out From Euphoric Fed Statement Reaction, Terminal Rate Spikes

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 04:01 PM

US equity markets were weaker into the FOMC statement after ‘good’ news from ADP on the labor market. The FOMC statement was met with euphoria in stocks as traders saw hopes for a ‘pause’ but Powell pissed in that punchbowl during the presser with the following exchange:

“the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers” reinforces the notion that the Fed is looking at both employment and inflation as giving it plenty of reasons to keep tightening.

Powell reiterated previous comments that “at some point” it will become “appropriate to slow the pace of increases.”

But most notably pointed out that there is “significant uncertainty” around that end-point.

“We have some ways to go,” adding that the ultimate level of the terminal rate may be higher than previously expected.

“The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is now much less important than the question of how high to raise rates and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive.”

And after the initial euphoric reactions, markets all reversed as Powell basically hinted that rates will stay ‘higher for longer’:

“…pausing is not something we’re thinking about…”

Simply out, as Bloomberg’s Ed Harrison concluded, “the downshift in the pace of policy tightening is now irrelevant.”

Terminal rate expectations ended the day at new cycle highs (above 5.10%) and rate-cut expectations shifted hawkishly…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate hike expectations for Dec and Feb initially dropped but that all reversed after Powell’s comments with Feb 50bps hike odds now higher on the day (at 60% by the close)…

Source: Bloomberg

The market just keeps repricing rate expectations ‘higher for longer’ against its will…

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged stocks back down. Nasdaq and Small Caps puked over 3% (from up over 1% right after the FOMC statement). The S&P was down over 2%…

We note that the S&P stalled at its 100DMA and then tumbled back below its 50DMA…

The Dow broke back below its 200DMA…

As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie noted, Powell has just flipped his argument of risk management.

Prior to the pandemic, the Fed’s story line has been that they’d rather let inflation run hot, than allowing inflation to stay too low for too long. It’s easier to deal with inflation than deflation, so goes the argument.

Today, Powell says it’s the other way around. It has tools to clean up over-tightening rather than to let inflation stray from the target for too long.

Times have changed.

Powell discussed his favorite yield curve indicator – The 3-month/18-month forward spread – noting that it is something The Fed monitors. It is on the verge of inversion (currently implying a 31% chance of a recession in the next 12 months)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, he reiterated that they clearly would prefer to over-tighten than under-tighten:

  • *POWELL: IF WE OVERTIGHTEN, WE CAN SUPPORT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
  • *POWELL: IF WE UNDERTIGHTEN, RISK IS INFLATION ENTRENCHED

So the pain will continue until inflationary morale improves…

Treasury yields swung wildly on the day, diving dovishly on the statement then spiking hawkishly on Powell’s comments. The short-end underpeformed…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields briefly dropped below 4.00% before ripping back higher but the 5Y yield saw the biggest swings of all maturities today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar puked lower on the FOMC statement but completely reversed that on the ‘higher for longer’ tone from Powell…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tumbled back from an initial kneejerk higher to test back down to $20,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold pumped (on the FOMC statement) and dumped (on Powell’s hawk-tardishness)…

Oil managed to hold on to gains (Saudi/Iran headlines) on the day despite weakening on Powell’s hawkish tone…

Finally, one has to believe The Fed knew they were laying a trap for the markets today – confirming dovish narrative from the blackout period with the statement then pulling the rug out during the presser with hawkish rhetoric.

Arguably, one might believe The Fed wanted to get financial conditions back under their control…

and once again stomp on the over-enthusiastic hope of equity market dip-buyers…

And next week we have CPI and Midterms to look forward to!

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC

Fed Hints At ‘Slowdown’ After Most Aggressive Tightening In Over 40 Years

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 12:07 PM

Tl;dr: The Fed hiked 75bps as expected (Fed Funds at 4.00%, the highest since Dec 2007 and most aggressive monetary tightening since 1981) but surprised the market somewhat by hinting at a slow-down in the pace of rate-hikes ahead (due to the lagged effect of their cumulative monetary tightening).

Market participants are describing this as a ‘soft pivot’ but we note that while terminal rate expectations have dropped (dovishly) but rate-cut expectations have also dropped (hawkishly) – market is pricing higher rates for longer.

Rate-hike expectations are sliding for Dec and Feb…

Eric Winograd, senior US economist at AllianceBernstein, has this to say:

The statement is clear that they would like to slow the pace of hikes. In addition to looking at the data and looking at markets, they are also now considering the cumulative impact of what they have already done. And the lag with with that will hit the economy. Most estimates are that it takes 9-12 months for rate hikes to be felt, and 12-18 months for the maximum effect. We are only just now eight months past the first rate hike, so it makes sense to slow down.” 

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on September 21st, where The Fed hiked rates by 75bps for the 3rd time in a row, stocks and bonds have suffered most (the latter more than the former) while the USD gained and gold mirrored the dollar’s gains to the downside. Though we note that stocks have rallied for the last couple of weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

The market’s expectation for The Fed’s terminal rate has soared since the last FOMC meeting, now above 5.00% (in May 2023), but at the same time, subsequent rate-cut expectations have not changed (despite shifting notably dovishly in the last couple of weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks have decoupled from that tightening expectation…

Source: Bloomberg

While the market’s expectations of The Fed’s terminal rate have soared significantly since the last FOMC meeting, financial conditions have barely tightened thanks to the last few weeks of hope-fueled gains in risk assets…

Source: Bloomberg

That is not what The Fed wants to see, and neither is this – the labor market has done nothing but surprise to the upside in recent months, despite the massive monetary tightening…

Source: Bloomberg

The market was 100% pricing in a 75bps hike today but all eyes and ears will be any signals of an easing in the hawkishness. Ahead of the statement, the market priced the odds of a 75bps hike in December at 36%.

What The Fed Said…

The Fed raised the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points, as expected. (The Fed’s 4th 75bps hike in a row is the most aggressive monetary policy tightening since 1981.)

The Fed also reiterated that officials will keep hiking…

The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

But The Fed made a big dovish change suggesting a slowdown in the pace of hikes:

In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments

So will Powell walk back the excitement?

*  *  *

Read the full redline below:

end

“It Makes Sense To Slow Down” – Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s Unexpected “Soft Pivot”

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 02:36 PM

While the range of outcomes and market reactions to today’s FOMC statement ran the gamut from +10% to -8% (according to JPM), the prevailing consensus was more “autopilot” from the Fed, and any potential dovishness would come in Powell’s presser, certainly not codified in the actual statement. However, as noted earlier, it was with Powell explicitly adding language warning about the “cumulative” effect of monetary policy, which works with a “lag.” The immediate impact was to send futures surging, and the dollar and yields tumbling.

Below we have compiled several reactions from Wall Street strategists and traders, sharing their post-FOMC take.

 Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets:

  • “‘Cumulative tightening’ and ‘lagged impact’ suggest that this will be the last 75 bp hike and in December the move will most likely be 50 bp. We’re somewhat surprised to see the soft pivot’ in the statement itself and we expect that Powell will double down on this narrative at the press conference. Therefore, the bullish move has more room to run.”

Eric Winograd, AllianceBernstein

  • “The statement is clear that they would like to slow the pace of hikes. In addition to looking at the data and looking at markets, they are also now considering the cumulative impact of what they have already done. And the lag with with that will hit the economy. Most estimates are that it takes 9-12 months for rate hikes to be felt, and 12-18 months for the maximum effect. We are only just now eight months past the first rate hike, so it makes sense to slow down. I would think rates down, curve steeper, stocks up, based on the statement.”

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group:

  • “The front loading is essentially over and rate hikes from here will be more cognizant of the new economic environment we’re in with respect to the much higher cost of capital and economic clouds that are circling. This is the Fed’s way of telling us that a slowdown in the pace of future hikes is upon us.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence

  • “It makes sense for the Federal Reserve to get back to increasing rates in only 25-bp increments by February, regardless of where the terminal rate ends up. Having the ability to calibrate monetary policy is easier than if it’s moving in larger increments. Fed funds futures, however, took the statement as very slightly dovish.”
  • “Some may view a Fed pause as leading to the risk of inflation remaining elevated, however we think eventually the market adjusts its thinking toward a deeper economic slowdown in 2024, and price for no cuts in 2023, but deeper cuts thereafter.”

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities

  • Cumulative and Lag – they inserted language that they will take that into consideration – keeping my bet that we come out of this with smaller / fewer / more spaced apart rate hikes priced in – given that insertion and no dots to lean on, seems good bet that Powell will be equivocal, which is enough…but will find out when presser starts

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Capital

  • “Lael Brainard’s fingerprint are all over this. It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down.”

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz

  • “As widely expected, the Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points. As to what’s next: I suspect the entire focus will be on interpreting the additional language in the statement. Markets are not waiting for the press conference to interpret this as dovish. Will be fascinating.”

Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights:

  • “This statement is a nice compromise between the folks who think the terminal rate is higher and those, like Daly, George, Evans, and Brainard who think that the pace of hikes should moderate given the lags in policy. Frankly, I’m not sure this means that 50bps is the base case for December, and I’d be surprised if Chair Powell were to lean in that direction at the press conference. Instead, this says that the terminal rate could be higher (‘attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive’) but the pace at which they get to their destination could slow (‘take into account cumulative tightening’) as they get closer to that level. That said, the pace still very much depends on where that terminal rate is, and that could change in the December SEP depending on the data….Depending on how the inflation/unemployment data come out between now and December 14, you could potentially see that move up again, and in that case, you’d likely need to continue with 75bps in December, i.e. the data would warrant it.”

Diane Swonk, KPMG

“There’s a] growing minority within the Fed who are really looking at how they need to think about rate hikes, now that we’re in tight territory.”

ii) USA DATA/

ADP private employment report shows that the labour market strengthened in October

(zerohedge)

ADP Employment Report Shows Labor Market Strengthened In October

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 08:19 AM

Following the weakness in this week’s US manufacturing surveys’ employment sub-indices, analysts expected this morning’s ADP Employment data to show a slowdown in job gains in October. However, like JOLTS, the ADP data showed an improvement in the labor market with 239k jobs added in October (vs 192k added in September) and better than the 185k addition expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, things are notably less optimistic with goods-producing jobs tumbling 8,000 (with manufacturing down 20k), while Service-providing jobs rose 247,000 – all driven by gains in Leisure/Hospitality…

Small- and medium-sized businesses hired the most workers…

ADP wage growth indicator showed modest slowing in October:

  • Job-stayers 7.7%, vs Sept 7.8%
  • Job-changers 15.2% vs Sept 15.7%

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP, Says:

This is a really strong number given the maturity of the economic recovery, but the hiring was not broad-based. Goods producers, which are sensitive to interest rates, are pulling back, and job changers are commanding smaller pay gains. While we’re seeing early signs of Fed-driven demand destruction, it’s affecting only certain sectors of the labor market.”

…more ‘good’ news to sell?

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

A very important read…..

Robert Hryniak7:40 PM (29 minutes ago)
to Harvey



Fed has a huge problem. And one no one wants to discuss and certainly not brain dead or drug addicted politicians. 

According to its latest balance sheet, the Fed owns $8.3 TRILLION worth of bonds. 

Remember, though, that bond prices fall as interest rates go up. So as the Fed has been aggressively raising rates lately, they’ve managed to create enormous losses of their own bond portfolio.

In fact the Fed lost $3.2 billion just last week alone. And in the month of October, they lost $4.1 billion.

$4.1 billion constitutes roughly 10% of the Fed’s entire capital base, so it’s a LOT of money for them to lose, especially in a single month. And these losses are mostly the result of their interest rate hikes that have caused their bond portfolio to lose value.

At this pace the Fed will be completely insolvent by next spring, at which point they’ll require a bailout from the federal government. I’m sure America’s adversaries will be terrified by such a display of financial strength. 

And you wonder why they are combing the globe for real assets like gold to keep going? They are an empty suit and one that is crooked as they come. And like in the Wizard of Oz they are a blip in time loosing all power once the curtain is drawn open. What you see Russia and others doing now is a drawing back of the curtain. Did you catch that Qatar told Europe that if they impose a gas cap price on Russia they will not ship to the  EU. Domkoff pass the blankets will be their motto soon enough as they freeze in the dark. And even OLD DEMENTED KLAUS over the WEF has no gas to warm their toes. National treasuries are coming back and the old Western order is dying.


Desperate Democratic Lawmakers Lambast “Aggressive” Fed’s “Apparent Disregard For Livelihoods Of Millions Of Americans”

The ranks of rebellious treasonous Democrats willing to meddle in the “independent” machinations of The Fed is growing as the countdown to the midterm meltdown continues to accelerate.

Who could have seen this coming?

In early September, we warned that The Fed’s actions mean millions of Americans are about to lose their jobs… and Democratic lawmakers will not just quietly sit by:

…due to the recency bias of Biden’s trillions in stimmies, and a world where workers – whether working form home or the office – have virtually all the leverage, few today can conceive of a world where inflation is zero or negative and is instead replaced with millions in unemployed workers, an outcome which one could (or rather should) say is even worse for the ruling democrats than roaring inflation. At least, with runaway prices, most people have a job and their wages are rising (at least nominally, if not in real terms).

However, the higher rates rise, the closer we get to that inevitable moment when the BLS – unable to kick the can any longer – admits what has been obvious to so many for months: the US is facing a labor crisis of epic proportions with millions and millions of mass layoffs.

In “Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022“, Furman summarizes a paper written by Johns Hopkins macroeconomist Larry Ball with co-authors Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund released by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, whose conclusion is as follows: “To bring price increases down to 2%, we may need to tolerate unemployment of 6.5% for two years.

What does this mean in absolute numbers? 

Assuming a modest increase in the US labor force, a 6.5% unemployment rate in 2024 would translate into no less than 10.8 million unemployed workers, an 80% increase from the 6 million today!

Still think that politicians – and especially Democrats – will sit quietly and blindly ignore how high the Fed is hiking rates if it means that to normalize inflation back to 2% it means nearly doubling the number of unemployed Americans (and a crushing recession to boot). Spoiler alert: no, they won’t, and this may be one of the very rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is actually right to worry about what the coming mass layoff wave means for Democrats… and the 2024 presidential election.

Well, surprise, surprise, here comes Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib and the rest of the progressive panderers to pressure The Fed to take its foot off the throat of the “strong as hell” economy.

Building on what Senate Baking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown recently warned last month:

“For working Americans who already feel the crush of inflation, job losses will make it much worse. We can’t risk the livelihoods of millions of Americans who can’t afford it. I ask that you don’t forget your responsibility to promote maximum employment and that the decisions you make at the next FOMC meeting reflect your commitment to the dual mandate.”

Warren et al. slam the implications of The Fed’s projected job losses from its official projections and its intention to continue raising interest rates at an “alarming pace”:

“You continue to double down on your commitment to ‘act aggressively’ with interest rate hikes and ‘keep at it until it’s done’…”

The lawmakers remind Powell that his tools are limp in the face of Putin’s price-hikes and corporate gouging…

Your “overarching focus” on “using [the Fed’s] tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal” no matter the cost is particularly troubling given the limits of interest rate hikes in addressing key drivers of today’s inflation, including lingering supply chain snarls, corporate price gouging, and the war in Ukraine.

Then they conclude with the same language that Brown used:

“These statements reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices”

They end with a series of questions that pointedly highlight the economic impact (and inequity) of The Fed’s actions, awkwardly bring up former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida recent comments that “Until inflation comes down a lot, the Fed’s really a single-mandate central bank,” asking Powell “Do you agree with that assessment?”

Circling back to our initial thoughts, remember The Fed is apolitical and independent and anyone who tries to sway them is a treasonous traitor.

When President Trump publicly spoke about The Fed cutting rates, some former Fed officials were not happy:

“I am not pleased,” said Carl Tannenbaum, a former Chicago Fed official and chief economist at Northern Trust.

“The remarks certainly aren’t an immediate threat to Fed independence, but they break with the tradition of respectful distance.”

Randall Kroszner, a former Fed governor, said the central bank has withstood political pressure before and will continue to do so under Mr. Powell’s leadership.

“The Fed has often faced political pressures — from Congress, presidents, Treasury secretaries and innumerable outside groups,” said Mr. Kroszner, an economics professor at the University of Chicago.

“My experience at the Fed is consistent with what Jay Powell recently said — being non-political is deep in the Fed’s DNA — and I believe that Jay will keep it that way.”

But hey, it’s different this time… because “this economy is strong as hell”…

For now the market is reacting ‘with’ the politicians and shifting rate-trajectory expectations dovishly:

END

Another good article:  The author points out that a threat to the uSA power grid could plunge the country into darkness

(John Mac Ghlionn/EpochTimes)

A Surprising Threat To The US Power Grid Could Plunge The Country Into Darkness

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 10:45 PM

Authored by John Mac Ghlionn via The Epoch Times,

The importance of a strong power grid cannot be emphasized enough. Often, when a grid fails, the results are terrifying. Of all the major power grids in the world, the United States’ is one of the more vulnerable to attack.

State-sponsored hackers from the likes of Iran, Russia, and, unsurprisingly, China pose a real threat to the United States’ electrical transmission lines. However, there’s another (far less obvious) threat to the grid: electric vehicles (EVs).

Yes, you read that right.

The Biden administration is desperate to consign the internal combustion engine to the dustbin of history. In this radical shift to embrace a new, zero-emission world, Americans are being told to embrace EVs. Such an embrace, however, requires a stellar power grid, the very thing the United States lacks.

Just to be clear, the U.S. power grid (or electric grid) involves a huge network of transmission lines, power plants, and distribution centers. The United States has three major grids: the Eastern Grid, the Western Grid, and the ERCOT Grid, otherwise known as the Texas Grid. Of the three, the Eastern Grid is the largest.

Although the three grids can operate independently, they’re also connected. A failed grid means no power for tens of millions of citizens and prolonged periods of darkness. Imagine a power grid failure in the likes of Los Angeles or New York. The two cities are already riddled with crime; grid failures would make things many times worse.

Attacks Since 2016

In 2018, the Department of Homeland Security announced that Russian hackers had hijacked the control rooms of various electric utilities. This allowed the hackers to disrupt power flows and cause blackouts.

Rather alarmingly, the DHS conceded that the attacks had been occurring since 2016, the same year the Russians started attacking Ukraine’s grid. Although the Russians have strenuously denied the attack, such denials appear to conflict with reality.

As tensions between Russia and the United States escalate, and tensions between China, another hacker-friendly country, intensify, expect more disruptions to the grid.

A photo illustration shows a background of electric power infrastructure with an Apple iPhone showing an Emergency Alert notification from CalOES urging the public to conserve energy to protect health and safety as the electricity grid is strained during a heat wave in Los Angeles, Calif., on Sept. 6, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

However, as mentioned, Americans must concern themselves with more “benign” threats. A recent paper, published in Applied Energy, discussed the threat of electric cars to the grid. Currently, there are 2.5 million electric vehicles in the United States; four in five owners opt to charge their cars overnight. This decision, according to the researchers, is putting a considerable strain on power grids.

By 2025, the United States will have more than 20 million EVs on its roads. By 2030, according to Bloomberg, more than half of car sales will be electric. The strain is increasing, and power grids are ill-equipped to shoulder the load.

If Bloomberg’s projection proves to be correct, then, as the researchers note, it will take 5.4 gigawatts of energy storage to charge EVs. To put 5.4 gigawatts into perspective, one nuclear power plant produces 1 gigawatt of energy. The United States currently has 55 power plants. To facilitate the new EV revolution, the United States requires many more. Considering California, the largest state in the country, has moved to ban the sale of gas-powered cars, and other states are considering introducing similar measures, the United States needs to get a move on. Time is very much of the essence.

What would happen if, say, the power grid was to fail in EV-crazed California? To answer that question, we need only rewind a few months. This past summer, plagued by scorching hot temperatures, the Golden State’s power grid came incredibly close to collapsing.

It survived, but only just.

The grid will be tested again. With California’s desire to push the sales of EVs, the next test could prove to be an unmitigated disaster. Energy is a finite resource, a fact that seems to be lost on so many EV enthusiasts.

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto on Feb. 13, 2019. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

In truth, the nation’s power grid is already on its last legs. It has been for years. In a sobering piece for Smithsonian Magazine, Dr. Massoud Amin, a professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) at the University of Minnesota, explained the many ways in which the country’s power grid, “the most complex” one ever assembled, could fail. The grid, he wrote, “underpins our economy, our quality of life, our society.” Without it, society will be brought to a screeching halt. Crime will rise. Lives will be lost. Chaos will reign supreme.

By 2025, according to the American Society for Civil Engineers, the inability of the United States to maintain its many power lines will cost the country dearly—$130 billion, to be exact. EVs, so often hailed as the best thing since sliced bread, come with a whole host of sizable problems.

Across the United States, as the author Ben Guess recently noted, there are currently 21 EVs per public charging port. By 2030, to keep up with EV purchasing trends, the United States must install almost 500 charging ports every day for the next 8 years.

Does this sound realistic to you?

Even if the United States does somehow manage to install enough ports, the grid simply isn’t strong enough to support the battery-related demands. This is a point that needs to be emphasized, repeatedly and unapologetically. Yes, state-sponsored hackers are a threat, but state-sponsored EV initiatives aren’t exactly harmless. In the blind embrace of all things green, we must not lose sight of the bigger picture, the objective realities that stare us straight in the face

END

Another very important commentary; is there a possibility that the Fed will blow up the economy

(zerohedge)

The Mainstream Is Increasingly Accepting The Possibility That The Fed Will Blow Up The Economy

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Not more than a year ago it was generally thought impossible among mainstream economists and retail investors that the Federal Reserve would commit to raising interest rates and ending stimulus.  After 14 years of predictable QE and near zero rates, it’s not surprising that they would refuse to acknowledge the possibility that the Fed would abandon them.  Well, as with the seasons, all things must change.

At first they refused to admit that inflation was a problem, now mainstream outlets are openly discussing the idea that the Fed will have to “blow up the economy” in order to stop rising prices, with another 75 bps rate hike expected this week.  As CNN noted recently in an article titled The Fed May Have To Blow Up The Economy To Get Inflation under Control:

“It’s unclear what all this tightening will do to the economy. The housing market is already starting to show some signs of strain. Bond yields have spiked due to the Fed. And mortgage rates, which tend to move in tandem with the benchmark 10-year Treasury, have skyrocketed this year as a result.

There is also a growing chorus of lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are warning Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed members to slow down the rate hikes because they fear even tighter monetary policy will lead to a recession.”

In the past, the immediate reaction by media pundits would be to suggest that a Fed “pivot” to stimulus was coming soon.  This is no longer suggested and the economists are now accepting the reality that pivot hopes are fading.

As as new Slate article admits:

“…Some economists think it’s almost impossible for the Fed to be too hawkish right now. If people believe that the Fed will do whatever it takes to get inflation down—including making unemployment rise—that will shift public expectations in a way that actually helps keep inflation down. Paradoxically, that could reduce the amount of tightening the Fed ultimately needs to do and spare us additional economic pain.”

The narrative shift is dramatic, and it’s almost as if the media is now preparing markets as well as the public for tightening to continue for far longer than they initially expected.  But why the sudden change in tone?  

From 1972 to 1980 the US witnessed a stagflationary avalanche that resulted in the Fed eventually raising interests rates to 20%.  This led to the recession of 1981-1982 and an unemployment rate of around 11%.  The effects of the recession persisted through the rest of that decade.  

At that time, the stagflation crisis was triggered primarily by the complete removal of the US dollar from the gold standard by Richard Nixon and the Fed.  The Fed claimed that the move was designed to “stop inflation”, which makes little sense given that removing all commodity backing to the dollar resulted in a historic stagflationary crisis only a few years later.  

It’s important to note that in the 1980s the country had not just witnessed tens of trillions of dollars in fiat stimulus created by the central bank on top of a doubling of the national debt in the span of eight years.  In other words, the economic conditions today are much worse than they were back then.

Another event in which the Fed raised interest rates aggressively into economic weakness was in the early years of the Great Depression, which Milton Friedman argued was the actual cause of the long term crisis.  In 2002, Ben Bernanke agreed with him.

The point is, the Fed has done all of this before and it has no reluctance about engineering a recession or even a depression in the face of inflation.  The greater threat, though, is that none of these measures will actually create stability.  Rather, they may only lead to greater instability given the unprecedented factors involved.  Furthermore, the media either doesn’t understand or doesn’t want to talk about the Fed’s culpability for the existing crisis.  

For now, they are presenting inflation as a consumer “demand issue”, which is only a side note to the bigger issue of central bank fiat money creation.  It should not be forgotten that the Fed dumped over $8 trillion on the economy in the span of two years through covid stimulus measures, and this is when prices truly skyrocketed.  That was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

How many more rate hikes will it take to deal with that level of monetary inflation?  We have no idea because such a thing has never happened in the US before.  With the latest GDP print coming in at 2.6%  and CPI prints remaining high, there is no indication that tightening will stop anytime soon.  The implication is that a far reaching deflationary effort would be required, and the Catch-22 is that this effort could cause the same kind of chaos as inflation would.  

In another year, we might find the media finally admitting that it was a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario all along.

end     

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

Now we have bird flu attacking the USA.  Bird Flu strikes an Iowa egg farm with million hens

(zerohedge)

“Possibility Of Additional Outbreaks:” Bird Flu Strikes Iowa Egg Farm With Million Hens

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 07:05 PM

The unseasonable return of avian influenza or bird flu continues to wreak havoc on the US poultry industry. Iowa agriculture officials announced Monday that the first infection since April was detected at a large commercial egg-laying farm, AP News reported.

Iowa Department of Agriculture officials said the commercial farm with 1.1 million chickens in Wright County (central Iowa) just detected the highly contagious and deadly virus.

All chickens at the facility were culled and disposed of to avoid spreading the disease. Iowa has been hit hard by bird losses this year, with more than 13 million killed. On a national level, 47.7 million birds have been affected in 43 states. 

Bird flu continues “to be a significant threat across the country,” Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig told The Des Moines Register. He added:

“We have been preparing for the possibility of additional outbreaks,” working closely with producers and the US Department of Agriculture.

“With migration ongoing, we continue to emphasize the need for strict biosecurity on poultry farms and around backyard flocks to help prevent and limit the spread of this destructive virus.” 

In late September, we noted there was concern that the fall migration of wild birds could spread the virus. That appears to be correct. 

The culling of tens of millions of birds has dented national egg supplies, sending prices sky-high and above 2015 outbreak levels (last major bird flu) to about $3 per dozen at the supermarket. 

Retail egg prices have doubled since August 2020, straining consumers’ wallets as breakfast inflation soars. What used to be a cheap source of protein in the morning has become expensive. 

Besides eggs, turkeys have also been impacted by bird flu, sending prices to record highs ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. 

end

DIESEL…

What’s Throwing The US Diesel Market Out Of Whack: A Primer

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 08:30 AM

By Housley Carr of RBN Energy

The U.S. market for distillates has been crazy the past few months — especially in PADD 1 —(East coast)  and given all that’s going on, it’s likely to stay that way for months to come.

Inventories of ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil and other distillates are at their lowest levels for this time of year since before the EIA started tracking them 40 years ago and diesel prices are in the stratosphere, all despite diesel crack spreads being in record-high territory — a strong incentive for refineries to churn out more distillate. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the many factors affecting distillate supply, demand, inventories and prices and take a look ahead at where the market may be headed next.

It may be true (technically speaking) that everything that comes out of a refinery is a distillate – after all, the first step in refining (after removing salt from crude oil) is boiling the oil and running it through an atmospheric distillation unit to separate crude into diesel oil, kerosene, heavy naphtha, light naphtha and other distilled products. But when we talk about distillates, we’re really talking about “middle distillates” – so-named because they condensate in the middle of the fractional distillation tank. These would include diesel and heating oil and usually jet fuel/kerosene, while vacuum gasoil (VGO) is not included.

(The terminology here can get a bit tricky as our friends outside the U.S. typically use the word “gasoil” to refer to middle distillates generally, while Americans often use the word “gasoil” to refer to VGO specifically.)

Middle distillates typically account for 25% to 50% of a refinery’s yield, depending on, among other things, the facility’s equipment and the qualities of the crude slate used. Refiners can tweak their operations and their crude slates to ramp up (or down) how much middle distillate they produce.

The events that have roiled energy markets over the past couple of years – COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. economic recovery and (more recently) talk of a recession, to name a few – have also altered the dynamics of the U.S. distillates market, nationally but especially in PADD 1 (East Coast).

PADD 1 isn’t just a leading consumer of distillates – it’s pretty much tied with PADD 2 (Midwest) for the #1 spot – it’s also the region most dependent on others for its supply.

As in other parts of the U.S., distillates are used to fuel trucks, tractors, trains and marine vessels of every size.

They are also used in manufacturing, as a backup fuel at power plants that can be fired by either natural gas or diesel, and – importantly – for residential and commercial space heating, especially in the Northeast.

We’ve mentioned in a number of blogs that East Coast refining capacity (concentrated primarily in New Jersey, the Philadelphia area and Delaware) has been declining over the past several years. As a result, only about one-sixth of the ~1.2 MMb/d of distillates that PADD 1 consumes (annual average) is produced in-region — the rest is brought in from elsewhere. Large volumes are piped in from PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) via the Colonial and Products pipelines (the latter formerly known as the Plantation Pipeline) and much smaller volumes are piped in from the Midwest. To help meet its prodigious demand, PADD 1 also is the recipient of distillate imports, mostly from Canada, the Persian Gulf, India, Europe and Latin America.

As we said in the introduction to today’s blog, the standout issue regarding the PADD 1 distillates market right now is that inventories are at a historically low level. As of the week ended October 21, they stood at a hair under 24 MMbbl (right end of red line in Figure 1), compared to more than 38 MMbbl at this time last year (blue line) and more than 60 MMbbl in mid-October 2020 (purple line).

(The average for the third week of October during the 2010-19 period was just over 50 MMb/d, or more than twice the current mark.)

Over the past three Octobers and Novembers (2019-21), implied distillate demand within PADD 1 (based on EIA’s “distillates product supplied” data) averaged 1.2 MMb/d, which suggests that East Coast inventories are only sufficient to meet about 20 days of demand — an extraordinarily thin cushion, particularly as the winter heating season begins in a region that depends heavily on heating oil.

(About 18% of households in the Northeast use heating oil as their primary space-heating fuel, down from 25% a decade ago, according to EIA.)

We’ve heard that 20 days’ supply is a low in the post-WW2 era, which if true is quite a statement.

SWAMP STORIES

This is good: Pennsylvania Supreme Court orders all undated, wrongly dated ballots not to be counted.

(Ly/EpochTimes)

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Orders Undated, Wrongly Dated Ballots To Not Be Counted

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 07:20 AM

By Mimi Nguyen Ly of The Epoch Times

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered counties to not count any ballots that are in undated or incorrectly dated envelopes in the upcoming Nov. 8 elections, siding with national and state Republican groups in a lawsuit filed just over two weeks ago.

“The Pennsylvania county boards of elections are hereby ORDERED to refrain from counting any absentee and mail-in ballots received for the November 8, 2022 general election that are contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes,” the court said in its order (pdf).

It added, “We hereby DIRECT that the Pennsylvania county boards of elections segregate and preserve any ballots contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes.”

Court justices were split 3–3 on whether not counting these ballots would violate 52 US Code section 10101 (a)(2)(B), a voting provision under the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

The provision states that “no person acting under color of law shall deny the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relating to any application, registration, or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified under State law to vote in such election.”

Chief Justice Debra Todd, and Justices Christine Donohue and David Wecht—all Democrats—would find a violation of federal law if ballots were thrown out based on requiring a date, the court order states. Meanwhile, Justice Kevin Dougherty, a Democrat, and Justices Sallie Updyke Mundy and Kevin Brobson, both Republicans, would not find a violation of federal law. The court is down one member after Chief Justice Max Baer died in September.

The court said that opinions for the decision are “to follow.”

Republicans Sought Expedited Review

The latest court decision comes after the Republican National Committee (RNC), the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), and the Republican Party of Pennsylvania in October joined in filing a lawsuit to block undated mail-in ballots and absentee ballots from being counted, even if they are received on time.

In a petition, the group asked for an expedited review, which requires the court to use its special power to bypass the lower courts in taking up the case. On Oct. 21, the court granted the request, a move that suggested it regards the matter as urgent and important.

Pennsylvania Department of State officials argued that state law between 1945 to 1968 had directed counties to set aside mail-in ballots when the date on the envelope was later than the election day. But in 1968, the state law was changed, resulting in the deletion of a section in the law that required counties to set aside ballots based on the date on the return envelope, the officials noted.

Republicans asked the justices to rule on the language of Pennsylvania’s law, which states that an absentee or mail-in voter “shall … fill out, date and sign the declaration” printed on the outer envelope of the ballot. They asked the court that if it doesn’t order counties to throw out the undated or incorrectly dated ballots, then it should at least order counties to segregate the ballots.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Tuesday dismissed the individual petitioners from the case due to lack of standing, while determining that the RNC, NRCC, and the Pennsylvania GOP have standing.

Prior to the latest legal fight, the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had ruled in May that having dates on the return envelope is not mandatory, and that mail-in ballots without the date had to be counted in a 2021 Pennsylvania judge race.

The ruling was welcomed by Democrats, including the Pennsylvania Department of State under the administration of Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat. It immediately adjusted its nonbinding guidance to say that counties should count undated ballots.

But the U.S. Supreme Court in October vacated the decision by the appeals court, and dismissed the case as moot.

Pennsylvania state law requires that voters handwrite a date on the outer envelope when they send in mail ballots. However, the date that’s handwritten on the envelope is not used to verify whether a ballot has been received on time for the election, because the ballots are supposed to be time-stamped when they arrive at county offices.

END

Watch: Rand Paul Accuses Dems Of Using Pelosi Attack For Political Gain

WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 03:31 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on Fox News Tuesday night, Senator Rand Paul accused Democrats of politicising the mysterious attack on Paul Pelosi in order to ‘misdirect’ voters away from the state of the country ahead of the midterms.

“I think we should have some compassion for Paul Pelosi and not make anything about politics,” Paul noted, adding “But I see today and yesterday, all the left wing is doing, all the Democrats are doing, are trying to make this about politics.”

“I think it is a misdirection thing to get away from all of the things that they’re doing so terribly with the economy, with crime and everything else,” Paul further asserted.

The Senator urged that he hasn’t even seen much compassion from the left, noting “There’s an eagerness on the left to make this political and immediately to start blaming Republicans. But where’s the sympathy even from the left for Paul Pelosi?”

“I mean, I’m sure he’s suffering today. He’s been through this horrific assault, and nobody’s really talking about him because even the left is talking about making this political and blaming it on Republicans,” Paul proclaimed.

“I will tell you sincerely, I do want Paul Pelosi to make a speedy recovery. And I know what it’s like to go through the pain. And I know he’s in pain today. And I think we should see him as a human being,” Paul said, alluding to his own experience with being brutally attacked in 2017 by his own neighbour.

The Senator noted that at the time, when he was in hospital after almost dying from fluid filled infected lungs, Nancy and Paul Pelosi’s daughter Christine tweeted that the attacker Rene Boucher “was right.”

Paul also noted that his political opponents have continued to use the attack on him, even in campaign ads.

“Another one of my opponent’s campaign leaders actually put my address up and then puts pictures of me injured. And the implication is, I guess, this is where he is if you want to finish the job,” the Senator posited.

*  *  *

KING REPORT

The King Report November 2, 2022 Issue 6878Independent View of the News
@HAOHONG_CFA: Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
 
Chinese Stocks Erupt on Covid Zero Exit Social Media Rumor
Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as much as 7% intraday, rebounding from their lowest levels since 2005 after unverified social media posts circulated a rumor about reopening the economy. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged as much as 9%, the most significant intraday move since April on the speculation… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-stocks-erupt-social-media-rumor-covid-zero-exit-china-denies
 
Offshore Yuan Slips as China Sets Weakest Fixing Since 2008
The offshore yuan declined, edging closer to its weakest on record, as China signaled a looser grip on the currency by weakening the fixing. The currency dropped as much as 0.3% to 7.3567 per dollar, after the People’s Bank of China set its fixing at a near 15-year-low…  https://t.co/6drjaqKd8k
 
ESZs surged from a low of 3881.75 at 18:03 ET to a high of 3928.00 at 8:31 ET on China’s equity rally.  ESZs and US stocks then tumbled, with ESZs hitting a daily low of 3855.00 at 10:58 ET.
 
A major factor in the equity tumble during early US trading: September JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 10.717m from an upwardly revised 10.28m (from 10.053m).  9.75m was expected.  Mr. Market quickly surmised that there can be NO Fed Pivot when wage inflation and job openings continue to accelerate.
 
Perceived Fed conduit @NickTimiraos: The number of job openings in September rose by 437,000 to 10.7 million (and the August figure was revised up by 200,000). The Fed would like to see the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers decline, and it ticked up in September to 1.86 from 1.68.
 
@YahooFinance: JOLTS data suggested there’s still plenty of economic momentum behind us, and I think that’s why it’s going to be so challenging for the Fed to ultimately communicate what we think will be a rate hike pause at some point in 2023,” PIMCO U.S. Economist Allison Boxer says.
 
After a 28-handle ESZ rally induced by manipulation for the European close and an erroneous report about Biden endorsing a Fed Pivot, ESZs and US stocks peaked at 12:05 ET.
 
White House’s Economic Adviser Bernstein said Biden endorsed the Fed’s pivot to tighten this year.  Numerous outlets initially reported the story as ‘Bernstein: Biden endorsed Fed pivot.’
 
ESZs dropped 21 handles after the ‘Biden endorsed Fed Pivot’ headline was amended.  ESZs and stocks then went inert.  At 14:52 ET, ESZs moved higher on anticipation of start-of-November buying at or near the close.  The rally ended at 15:08 ET.  ESZs rolled over modestly and then went inert into the close.
 
USZs hit a high of 122 28/32 at 8:59 ET.  They sank to 120 25/32 by 11:05 ET.  USZs then went inert into the close.  Commodities rallied sharply on the hope that China is reopening its economy.
 
Bank of England successfully kicks off QT with oversubscribed £750m bond sale
https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-successfully-kicks-off-qt-with-over-subscribed-750m-bond-sale/
 
Saudi Arabia, U.S. on High Alert after Warnings of Imminent Attack – WSJ
Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran… on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-u-s-on-high-alert-after-warning-of-imminent-iranian-attack-11667319274
 
Elon Musk accuses Twitter board of ‘deliberately’ hiding evidence from court: ‘Stay tuned’
“Wachtell & Twitter board deliberately hid this evidence from the court,” Musk tweeted… He included a screenshot of internal messages from a Twitter executive referencing “fraudulent metrics.”… Proof of “fraudulent metrics” at Twitter may serve as a basis for arguments that Musk significantly overpaid in the $44 billion deal…   https://t.co/XwFRkL9VpC
 
Twitter Limits Content-Enforcement Tools as US Election Looms
Twitter has frozen some employee access to internal tools used for content moderation and other policy enforcement, curbing the staff’s ability to clamp down on misinformation ahead of a major US election…
    Typically this level of access is given to a group of people numbering in the hundreds, and that was initially reduced to about 15 people last week…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-01/twitter-limits-content-enforcement-tools-as-us-election-looms
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Early ESZ and USZ rallies on rumors that China will reopen its economy
 
Negative aspects of previous session
ESZs and USZs sank after a stronger than expected September JOLTS Job Opening report
Amazon sank 5.52% to a valuation below $1 trillion
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much inflation will China generate if it reopens its economy?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3870.54
Previous session High/Low3911.79; 3843.80
 
U.S. military inspectors in Ukraine to keep further track of weapons and equipment
The inspectors appear to be among the first U.S. military members to officially enter Ukraine since Russia invaded. Their work comes to light as concerns rise about the possibility of U.S. weapons arriving on the black market… (The US military is in Ukraine.  What possibly could go wrong?)
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-military-inspectors-ukraine-keep-track-weapons-equipment-rcna54891
 
@JackPosobiec: Anti-war protesters storm Obama rally in Detroit accusing him of overthrowing the govt of Ukraine in 2014 and leading us into WW3 
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-obama-heckled-in-detroit-stop-provoking-nuclear-war-with-russia
 
CNBC Pro: BlackRock’s Rieder says bond yields have not peaked and Fed will lean hawkish Wed.
 
@CGasparino on Friday: Economists at @BlackRock are telling financial advisers that they expect “pivot language” at the next @federalreserve meeting when they expect Powell to announce a 75 BP FF hike followed by two smaller ones and a pause to get us to around 4.75%.
 
 
Today – Barring news, early US trading should be muted as traders and investors prepare for what some believe will be a pivotal FOMC Communique.  Stocks are extremely overbought, so a more hawkish than expected FOMC Communique and/or Powell press conference could induce spirited selling.  If this transpires, the best hope for bulls would be Friends of the Program (for Dems) intervention.
 
ESZs are +1.75 at 20:35 ET.  Expected economic data: FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Presser 14:30 ET; 75bp Fed Funds rate hike to 3.75% is expected; Oct ADP Employment Change 180k
 
Expected earnings: CVS 1.99, YUM 1.15, HUM 6.26, TWTR .01, ROK 2.97, CHRW 2.19, MRO 1.17, ALL -1.59, APA 1.86, IR .59, MGM .24
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3829; 100-day MA: 3899; 150-day MA: 4049; 200-day MA: 4105
DJIA 50-day MA: 30,903; 100-day MA: 31,383; 150-day MA: 32,032; 200-day MA: 32,610
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3847.29 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden fakes a Southern accent while talking health care
https://justthenews.com/nation/culture/biden-fakes-southern-accent-while-talking-health-care
 
@greg_price11: Biden says to Democrat House member Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz: “I have no better friend in the United States Senate.”   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1587520656765222915
 
Biden says he ‘spoke to’ man who ‘invented’ insulin, who died before president was born
Insulin, a hormone produced in the body, was never invented, but was discovered by Frederick Banting. The late physician and scientist died at the age of 49 on Feb. 20, 1941.  Biden was born on Nov. 20, 1942.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-says-spoke-man-invented-insulin-died-before-president-born
 
@charliespiering: Joe Biden in Florida: “Inflation is a worldwide problem right now because of a war in Iraq and the impact on oil and what Russia’s doing, excuse me, the war in Ukraine. I’m thinking of Iraq because that’s where my son died.” (Biden repeatedly issues this lie.  Beau died from cancer.)
 
The San Francisco DA and police department will not say if the Pelosi’s have an alarm system on their home.  It would raise questions as to why the alarm did not respond to the break in.  They will also not release a mug shot, DePape’s rap sheet, the 911 call, or the SFPD body cam videos.  The DA said they are withholding the info because it could lead to disinformation.  This is Orwellian logic!!!
 
WaPo: Alleged assailant filled blog with delusional thoughts in days before Pelosi attack
The San Francisco Bay area man arrested in the attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband filled a blog a week before the incident with delusional thoughts, including that an invisible fairy attacked an acquaintance and sometimes appeared to him in the form of a bird, according to online writings under his name… In another post on Oct. 24, four days before the attack on Pelosi, DePape shared images of a wooden birdhouse he said he had purchased for an invisible fairy he communicated with that had begun interfering with his life. “He appears in a form that makes sense in my reality because I can’t see fairies. He’ll do things to let me know its him and he o[f]ten appears as a bird,” he wrote.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/10/29/david-depape-blog-pelosi-fairies/
 
@ChrisStigall: Fox affiliate in SF retracts report that Pelosi and the suspect were found in their underwear. NBC News retracts report there were 3 people in the house. Politico retracts a third party opened the door to let cops in. Now the media calls us names for BELIEVING them
 
@RogerSeverino_: Sotomayor just mistook de jure (legal) segregation for de facto (in fact) segregation. Alito called her out on it, and she doubled down! It’s an elementary mistake no competent 1st yr law student would make. (Harvard racial preference case)
 
Chicago mass shooting: Several children among at least 14 injured in drive-by on city’s West Side
https://www.foxnews.com/us/chicago-mass-shooting-several-children-among-least-14-injured-drive-citys-west-side
 

 

GREG HUNTER REPORT INTERVIEWING EGON VON GREYERZ

A must view….

sawatchdog.com/2-5-quadrillion-disaster-waiting-to-happen-egon-von-greyerz/

$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen – Egon von Greyerz

By Greg Hunter On November 1, 2022 In Market Analysis9 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest private gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. EvG is a financial and precious metals expert.  EvG is a former Swiss banker and an expert in risk.  He says the risk in the global markets has never been this high.

EvG explains, “Credit has increased dramatically through derivatives.  All instruments being issued now by banks, pension funds, stock funds, it’s all synthetic.  There is no real underlying payments in anything almost.  Therefore, my estimate for derivatives would be at least $2 quadrillion, and I think that is probably conservative.  Then, we have debt on top of that of $300 trillion, and we also have a couple hundred trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities.  So, we are talking about $2.5 quadrillion, and that’s with a global GDP of $80 trillion.  So, there is a disaster waiting to happen, and especially because all this created money has created no value whatsoever. . . . I always knew this would collapse, and it’s taken longer than I expected, but I think we are at the end of a major era. . . . These derivatives, at some point in the coming few years, will actually turn into debt.  Central banks will have to cover all the outstanding liabilities of the commercial banks as we are seeing now with Credit Suisse, Bank of England and etc.  This is going to happen across the board.  Whether it’s called derivatives or called debt, as far as I am concerned, it’s the same thing.  It will have the same effect on the world financial system, which will be disastrous, of course.”

EvG says the derivative markets were simply a way for financial institutions to carry debt and not show it on their balance sheets.  In the end, everything will balance out.  EvG goes on to say, “Nobody can repay the debt, and they can’t even pay interest. . . . So, therefore, when the debt implodes, so will the assets that were financed by this debt.  So, both sides of the balance sheet have to come down.  Whether it comes down by 50%, 75% or 90%, I don’t know. . . . All I think about is risk, and the financial system will not survive in its present form.  Central banks only use one kind of medicine, and that is more printed money.  Now, you are getting negative returns on printed money.  So, that is not going to save anything.  Sadly we are looking at a situation when this system will start to implode . . . . The rich are still rich, but the poor are really poor. . . . Overall in the UK, Germany and most European countries, people don’t have enough money to live.  This is a human disaster already.  With food costs going up 25% and energy going up the same and gasoline, interest rates and rents, people don’t have enough money, and that is happening now.  It’s a human disaster of mega proportions.  It’s so sad, and governments will have no chance of doing anything about it.”

In closing, EvG says, “This is why it is getting closer for implosion because the whole system can’t take this. . . .The risk is increasing exponentially.  So, I think people should be prepared . . . Most asset markets have lost money, and it is going to get worse.”

There is much more in the 43-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management, which can be found on GoldSwitzerland.com for 11.1.2

(Usawatchdog.com/2-5-quadrillion-disaster-waiting-to-happen-egon-von-greyerz/)

After the Interview:

There is free information, analysis and original articles written by EvG and others on GoldSwitzerland.com.

To get a copy of EvG’s new book “Gold Matters,” click here.

This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

SEE YOU TOMORROW

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