NOV 3/ POST POWELL NON PIVOT REACTION:GOLD CLOSED DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.05//SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TO $19.43//PLATINUM DOWN $25.75 TO $922.50//PALLADIUM DOWN $72.00 TO $1815.60//COVID UPDATES: CHINA’S IPHONE CITY IN TOTAL CHAOS WITH THEIR ZERO COVID POLICY//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT, VACCINE INJURY/SLAY NEWS//UK RAISES RATES BY .75% BUT VERY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE RAISE//RUSSIA MOVING 70,000 CITIZENS FROM KHERSON BECAUSE OF FEAR OF A BOMBING OF THEIR DAM//USA RENTS TUMBLING BECAUSE OF THE DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY//ALSO DOWNDRAFT IN USA SERVICE INDUSTRY SERVICE ALSO PAINTS A PICTURE THAT THE USA IS IN A HUGE DOWNTURN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 298 132 C SG AMERICAS 41 190 H BMO CAPITAL 130 323 C HSBC 82 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 250 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3 661 C JP MORGAN 391 486 690 C ABN AMRO 74 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 9 737 C ADVANTAGE 28 45 800 C MAREX SPEC 9 11 880 H CITIGROUP 228 905 C ADM 15
TOTAL: 1,050 1,050 MONTH TO DATE: 3,86
JPMORGAN STOPPED 486/1050
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT: 1050 NOTICES FOR 105,000 OZ or 3.2659 TONNES
total notices so far: 3867 contracts for 386700 oz (12.0279 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 63 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 315000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 154 : for 770,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 920.57 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF .566 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 482.650 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 155 CONTRACTS TO 138,588 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.09)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 495 CONTRACTS. SOME SPECS TRIED TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER PRICES
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS SOME NO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:1.220 MILLION OZ/ / // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +32
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 2790 contracts: 13.950 million oz OR 4.65MILLION OZ PER DAY. (930 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.95 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 13.95 MILLION
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 155 WITH OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 650 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 QUEUE JUMP/ .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 495 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.415 MILLION OZ..
WE HAD 63 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 315,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 218 CONTRACTS TO 467,431 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -373 CONTRACTS.
.
THE TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY // ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS . // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 52,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2900 OI CONTRACTS 9.02 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2900 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,058
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2900 CONTRACTS WITH 218 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3118 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2900 CONTRACTS OR 9.020 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3118) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (218): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3273 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 52,200 OZ //NEW STANDING 17.017 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) TINY SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
8153 CONTRACTS OR 815,300 OZ OR 25.35 TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2717 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 25.35 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 25.35/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.714% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 25.35 TONNES//INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 155 CONTRACT OI TO 138,720 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 650 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 155 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 495 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.475MILLION OZ//
Last year, Nigeria launched its much-ballyhooed eNaira, Africa’s first central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Central bankers, academics, politicians, and an assortment of elites from over 100 countries hoping to launch their own CBDCs have closely followed the eNaira.
They used Nigeria—Africa’s largest country by population and size of its economy—as a Petri dish to test their nefarious plans to use CBDCs to enslave the people of North America, Europe, and beyond.
The jury is now in.
The eNaira has been a massive failure.
According to Bloomberg, only 1 in 200 Nigerians use the eNaira. That’s even after the government implemented discounts and other incentives as desperate measures to increase adoption.
This came as a surprise to the elites.
Nigeria has one of the highest Bitcoin adoption rates in the world—ranking #11 among all countries.
Bitcoin’s ability to bypass the government’s capital controls—which restrict the use of foreign currencies and sending and receiving money from abroad—was a big draw for Nigerians, as it is in other countries with these repressive policies.
A long history of rampant currency debasement in Nigeria—including six devaluations in recent years—also helped spur the adoption of Bitcoin, which is totally resistant to inflation.
In short, the elites have miscalculated. They figured Nigerians wouldn’t be able to differentiate between Bitcoin and the eNaira—they are both digital currencies, after all.
The Bloomberg article admitted, “Nigerians’ passion for cryptocurrencies doesn’t extend to the central bank offering.”
It also said Nigerians view the eNaira as “a symbol of distrust in the ruling elite” and that the people view the government as “hostile to them and therefore have no interest in anything it introduces.”
To all the Nigerians rejecting the eNaira, I say bravo!
The failure of CBDCs in Nigeria could throw sand in the gears of the elites’ plan to implement them worldwide. That would be a big positive for human freedom.
The flop of CBDCs in Nigeria is an encouraging development.
It also reveals an outcome that was probably the opposite of what the elites desired—increased Bitcoin adoption.
CBDCs and Bitcoin
Despite all the hype, CBDCs are nothing but the same fiat currency scam on steroids.
It’s doubtful CBDCs can save otherwise fundamentally unsound currencies—as I believe all fiat currencies are.
If the current fiat system is not viable, then CBDCs are even less viable as they enable the government to engage in even more currency debasement.
Would a CBDC have saved the Zimbabwe dollar, the Venezuelan bolivar, the Argentine peso, or the Lebanese lira?
I don’t think so.
The eNaira did not save the Nigerian fiat currency. And a CBDC won’t save the US dollar or the euro from their fates either.
There are a lot of bad things that come with CBDCs.
But there’s a silver lining…
CBDCs are going to introduce and familiarize people with using digital currencies. It’s then only then a matter of time before they discover Bitcoin.
CBDCs and Bitcoin share some characteristics. For example, they are both digital and facilitate fast payments from a mobile phone. But that is where the similarities end.
The reality is that CBDCs and Bitcoin are entirely different in the most fundamental ways.
You need the government’s permission and blessing to use a CBDC, whereas Bitcoin is permissionless.
Governments can (and will) create as many CBDC currency units as they want. With Bitcoin, there can never be more than 21 million, and there is nothing anyone can do to inflate the supply more than the predetermined amount in the protocol.
CBDCs are centralized. Bitcoin is decentralized.
Governments can censor transactions and freeze, sanction, and confiscate CBDC units whenever they want. Bitcoin is censorship-resistant. No country’s sanctions or laws can affect the protocol.
There is no privacy with CBDCs. However, with Bitcoin, if you take specific steps, it is possible to maintain reasonable privacy.
CBDCs are government money that are easy to produce and give politicians a terrifying amount of control over people’s lives. On the other hand, Bitcoin is non-state hard money that helps liberate individuals from government control.
In short, CBDCs are a pathetic attempt to compete with Bitcoin.
CBDCs make an inferior form of money even worse, but at the same time, it’s an excellent Trojan Horse for Bitcoin.
It doesn’t take much imagination to see that once governments inevitably inflate their CBDC units, censor transactions, freeze people’s accounts, and confiscates funds, it will push people to look for better digital alternatives, first and foremost Bitcoin.
That’s how, contrary to conventional wisdom, CBDCs could be an enormous catalyst for Bitcoin adoption. The failure of the eNaira in Nigeria is proof of this dynamic.
* * *
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.56 PTS OR 0.19% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 487.08 OR 3.08% /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.77% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.4166 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3104// /Oil UP TO 88.48, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 218 CONTRACTS TO 467,058 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3118 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3118EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC : 3118 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3118 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2900 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3118LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 155 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $0.55//WE HAD MINOR SPEC SHORTS COVERINGS WITH BANKERS AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV (17.017),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 17.017 TONNES/INITIAL
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $0.55) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES//// SPEC SHORTS COVERED A SMALL PORTION OF THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3273 CONTRACTS // WE HAVE REGISTERED 9.020 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (17.017 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55
WE HAD -373 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3273 CONTRACTS OR 327,300 OZ OR 10.180 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 270,466// fair to good//
final gold volumes/yesterday 250,501/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 3
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3867 notices 386700 12.0279TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
customer withdrawals:2
ii) Out of Brinks 2,154.120 (67 kilobars)
iii) Out of HSBC: 13,173.939 oz
total: 15,328.059 oz
total in tonnes: 0.476 tonnes
Adjustments: 1// customer to dealer Int Delaware: 96.45 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.
For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 2654 contracts having LOST 265 contracts. We had 787 notices served upon TUESDAY so we gained a whopping 522
or an additional 52,200 will stand in this non active month of November. We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.
This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.
December LOST 3688 contracts DOWN to 347,087.
JANUARY LOST 18 contracts to stand at 36.
February gained 1474 contacts up to 82,203.
We had 1050 notice(s) filed today for 105,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 391 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1050 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 486 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3867) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (NOV 2654 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1050 x 100 oz per contract equals 547,100 OZ OR 17.017 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of NOV.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:
No of notices filed so far (3867) x 100 oz+ (2654) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1050} x 100 oz} which equals 547,100 oz standing OR 17.017 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 17.017 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 154 x 5,000 oz = 770,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(153) and the number of notices served upon today 63 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 154 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (153) – number of notices served upon today (63) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,220,000 oz.
We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES
OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES
SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES
SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 915.07 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//
OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY 482.650 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
Economically Ignorant Americans Want More Stimmy Checks To Fight Inflation
Proving that most people have no idea what causes inflation, the majority of Americans in a recent poll said they want the federal government to hand out stimulus checks to combat inflation.
In the poll commissioned by Newsweek, 63% of the respondents said they agreed that the feds should issue new stimulus checks to tackle inflation. Forty-two percent said they “strongly agree” while only 18% disagreed. Fifteen percent said they neither agreed nor disagreed.
The results of this poll reveal the effects of redefining “inflation.”
Properly defined, inflation is an increase in the money supply. Rising consumer prices are one symptom of inflation. But the government has effectively redefined inflation as “rising prices.” In effect, most people think a symptom of inflation is inflation. As a result, most people have no clue where inflation comes from.
This was on purpose.
Of course, when you accurately define inflation, it becomes crystal clear who is to blame — the Federal Reserve and the US government.
Economist Ludwig von Mises explained exactly why this redefinition of inflation is so pernicious.
People today use the term `inflation’ to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. . . . As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy of increasing the quantity of money that must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation.”
Today, people aren’t even asking the government to fight inflation. They just want Uncle Sam to hand them money in order to mitigate the pain of rising prices.
Ironically, stimulus during the pandemic is one of the factors causing the high prices today.
The Federal Reserve pumped over $3 trillion into the economy after the 2008 financial crisis through quantitative easing.
It also stimulated credit creation with 0% interest rates that lasted more than a decade. During the pandemic, the Fed doubled down, pumping nearly $5 trillion more into the economy and dropping rates to zero again.
The federal government exacerbated the situation during the pandemic by handing out three rounds of stimulus money, along with trillions in other aid.
This enabled consumers to keep spending even though they were sitting at home playing Xbox and not producing anything. With more dollars chasing fewer goods and services, a massive spike in consumer prices was entirely predictable.
It’s no wonder people are clamoring for more stimulus. But it will only make the situation worse. In the first place, it will put more dollars in consumers’ hands without any corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services. That’s a recipe for even more price increases.
Furthermore, the US government doesn’t have any money to hand out. It just ran a $1.3 trillion budget deficit. In order to give everybody stimmy checks, the government would have to borrow more money. The Treasury market is already reeling due to rising interest rates. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly have to monetize that new debt with more quantitative easing. The only other alternative would be to let interest rates soar, making the interest payment on the debt even higher.
Stimulus checks might provide a little temporary relief, but they would ultimately make inflation worse and prices would rise even higher in the future. But most Americans don’t understand that. They don’t understand inflation. They just know they’re struggling and they want government to “make it better.”
The problem is the government never makes it better. It always makes things worse. And it’s important to remember you never get more government for free. You always pay.
You’re paying for your COVID stimmy checks today through the inflation tax. If you get another stimmy check tomorrow, that will mean an even bigger inflation tax increase down the road.
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
-END-
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
They could easily solve central bank and government solvency by revaluing gold. The uSA will not engage in this due to the fact that they probably
lost of their gold
(Jan. Nieuwenjuijs/GATA)
Dutch central bank governor admits gold revaluation can restore bank’s solvency
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-11-02 12:01Section: Daily Dispatches
12:11p ET Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs reports today that the governor of the Netherlands central bank, Klaas Knot, is talking publicly about an upward revaluation of gold to restore the bank’s solvency.
The central banker’s comments might remind you of the gold revaluation speculations of the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance and the Scottish economist Peter Millar, speculations GATA often has called to your attention:
Nieuwenhuijs’ report is headlined “Governor of Dutch Central Bank States Gold Revaluation Account Is Solvency Backstop” and it’s posted at the Gainesville Coins internet site here:
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-11-02 12:23 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard The Telegraph, London Wednesday, November 2, 2022
The eurozone credit crunch has begun in earnest. Lending conditions across the currency bloc are the tightest since late 2012, when the region was still crippled by the sovereign debt crisis.
The European Central Bank’s lending survey is a leading indicator of what is to come. Both the supply and demand for credit definitively buckled in the third quarter, even if the eurozone economy eked out a last gasp of legacy growth. Lending is deteriorating most rapidly in Italy and Spain.
“The tightening in financing conditions corroborates our view that the euro area is headed towards a sharp recession,” said Ludovio Sapio from Barclays. Trouble is baked into the pie already, whatever happens to Vladimir Putin’s war and global gas prices.
Banks are doing what they always do at the rumble of thunder: they are imposing tougher terms on households and small firms; they are rejecting loan applications. This is a self-fulfilling process that can spin out of control at turning points in the business cycle. …
This past week has been monumental week in the history of Australia.
Last week, against all odds, the Parliament of Australia established not one, but TWO parliamentary inquiries into the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and their handling of reports of alleged misconduct.
For those who may be slight confused with the events of the past week:
· one inquiry will be held by the Senate Economics References Committee – this inquiry was established by a 43-20 vote of the Australian Senate.
These two inquiries come on the heels of my two independent reports into ASIC’s handling of reports of alleged misconduct which I published and submitted to Federal Parliament on 6 and 24 October 2022.
Even though ASIC’s senior executive leadership called my analysis ‘simplistic’, both the Sydney Morning Herald and News.com.au have both credited me in the past week as being the catalyst for the dramatic actions of the Australian Senate. See the following links:
In the past week, a lot of people have congratulated me on achieving this amazing outcome.
It is not every day that a private citizen can write their own report about a government agency, call on the Federal Parliament to hold an extensive inquiry and then pull it off through a dramatic majority vote in the Australian senate.
However, the real battle will be in the coming 3 months.
The bureaucratic cockroaches (especially their executive leadership) at ASIC have largely survived the past 11 years despite multiple reviews, inquiries and the 2018-19 Banking Royal Commission.
According to their own numbers, they have witnessed a material decline in their own enforcement performance despite having more staff and financial resources.
Thus, we cannot go through the current inquiry and just expect things will change. Rather, we have to make things change.
We need to ensure that as many people in Australia know about the current inquiries and that they are encouraged to make a submission so that the Federal Parliament can have all the evidence it requires to hold ASIC finally to account.
This time around heads must roll.
In the coming months, I will be working with multiple stakeholders from across Australia who have explosive case studies about either ASIC’s failure to act or ASIC acting both inappropriately and disproportionately.
Ensuring that these case studies are submitted and that key witnesses testify to the committee is very important.
Thus, the next 3 months is when the REAL BATTLE will be fought.
HOW TO MAKE A SUBMISSION?
Today, Martin North and I posted our latest “In the Interests of the People” video titled: “Rest In Peace ASIC – 3 February 2022”.
In this episode, we explain how to prepare high quality submissions for the Senate Economics References Committee inquiry which has set the deadline for submissions to be 3 February 2022.
I highly recommend that you watch this episode and spread it to your network.
There may be people who may be wondering what happened to the “PACKAGE” which I spoke about with Martin North on In the Interests of the People back on 21 September 2022. See the following link: (29052) The Package That Will Shock Australia – YouTube
The ASIC official investigation into the allegations that I submitted back in April 2022 remain ongoing.
In the past week, new devastating evidence has come to hand which my legal and accounting team has reviewed with me. I was able to spend time with ASIC investigators this past Tuesday sharing our latest evidence and explaining its significance.
The more real and tangible evidence that my team and I provide ASIC investigators, the more ammunition law enforcement has to expose the grand crime which I spent 9 months and $50,000 covertly investigating.
However, I am one of the lucky ones.
While ASIC is investigating my report of alleged misconduct, however there are hundreds of legitimate cases which ASIC has failed to act on – thus, the need for the parliamentary inquiry into ASIC’s performance.
IN SERVICE OF THE AUSTRALIAN PEOPLE
My campaign against tackling financial crime and Australia’s ineffective financial police force (ASIC) has been an intense operation over the past 4 months.
It has taken me countless hours, late nights and around the clock intense focus (including working on weekends) to engineer this outcome.
This campaign has been unpaid and high risk given that the degree of difficulty to engineer two parliamentary inquiries has been especially high.
Nevertheless, in my customary style, I rolled up my sleeves, did the work, took on the financial burden and pushed the envelope. I am grateful that my campaign on this occasion was successful.
For those who wish to contribute to my important public initiatives that allows me to deliver these amazing outcomes for the Australian public, you can make a financial contribution either via:
– my Public Crusader Fund Go Fund Me account – see the following link:
Last year, Nigeria launched its much-ballyhooed eNaira, Africa’s first central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Central bankers, academics, politicians, and an assortment of elites from over 100 countries hoping to launch their own CBDCs have closely followed the eNaira.
They used Nigeria—Africa’s largest country by population and size of its economy—as a Petri dish to test their nefarious plans to use CBDCs to enslave the people of North America, Europe, and beyond.
The jury is now in.
The eNaira has been a massive failure.
According to Bloomberg, only 1 in 200 Nigerians use the eNaira. That’s even after the government implemented discounts and other incentives as desperate measures to increase adoption.
This came as a surprise to the elites.
Nigeria has one of the highest Bitcoin adoption rates in the world—ranking #11 among all countries.
Bitcoin’s ability to bypass the government’s capital controls—which restrict the use of foreign currencies and sending and receiving money from abroad—was a big draw for Nigerians, as it is in other countries with these repressive policies.
A long history of rampant currency debasement in Nigeria—including six devaluations in recent years—also helped spur the adoption of Bitcoin, which is totally resistant to inflation.
In short, the elites have miscalculated. They figured Nigerians wouldn’t be able to differentiate between Bitcoin and the eNaira—they are both digital currencies, after all.
The Bloomberg article admitted, “Nigerians’ passion for cryptocurrencies doesn’t extend to the central bank offering.”
It also said Nigerians view the eNaira as “a symbol of distrust in the ruling elite” and that the people view the government as “hostile to them and therefore have no interest in anything it introduces.”
To all the Nigerians rejecting the eNaira, I say bravo!
The failure of CBDCs in Nigeria could throw sand in the gears of the elites’ plan to implement them worldwide. That would be a big positive for human freedom.
The flop of CBDCs in Nigeria is an encouraging development.
It also reveals an outcome that was probably the opposite of what the elites desired—increased Bitcoin adoption.
CBDCs and Bitcoin
Despite all the hype, CBDCs are nothing but the same fiat currency scam on steroids.
It’s doubtful CBDCs can save otherwise fundamentally unsound currencies—as I believe all fiat currencies are.
If the current fiat system is not viable, then CBDCs are even less viable as they enable the government to engage in even more currency debasement.
Would a CBDC have saved the Zimbabwe dollar, the Venezuelan bolivar, the Argentine peso, or the Lebanese lira?
I don’t think so.
The eNaira did not save the Nigerian fiat currency. And a CBDC won’t save the US dollar or the euro from their fates either.
There are a lot of bad things that come with CBDCs.
But there’s a silver lining…
CBDCs are going to introduce and familiarize people with using digital currencies. It’s then only then a matter of time before they discover Bitcoin.
CBDCs and Bitcoin share some characteristics. For example, they are both digital and facilitate fast payments from a mobile phone. But that is where the similarities end.
The reality is that CBDCs and Bitcoin are entirely different in the most fundamental ways.
You need the government’s permission and blessing to use a CBDC, whereas Bitcoin is permissionless.
Governments can (and will) create as many CBDC currency units as they want. With Bitcoin, there can never be more than 21 million, and there is nothing anyone can do to inflate the supply more than the predetermined amount in the protocol.
CBDCs are centralized. Bitcoin is decentralized.
Governments can censor transactions and freeze, sanction, and confiscate CBDC units whenever they want. Bitcoin is censorship-resistant. No country’s sanctions or laws can affect the protocol.
There is no privacy with CBDCs. However, with Bitcoin, if you take specific steps, it is possible to maintain reasonable privacy.
CBDCs are government money that are easy to produce and give politicians a terrifying amount of control over people’s lives. On the other hand, Bitcoin is non-state hard money that helps liberate individuals from government control.
In short, CBDCs are a pathetic attempt to compete with Bitcoin.
CBDCs make an inferior form of money even worse, but at the same time, it’s an excellent Trojan Horse for Bitcoin.
It doesn’t take much imagination to see that once governments inevitably inflate their CBDC units, censor transactions, freeze people’s accounts, and confiscates funds, it will push people to look for better digital alternatives, first and foremost Bitcoin.
That’s how, contrary to conventional wisdom, CBDCs could be an enormous catalyst for Bitcoin adoption. The failure of the eNaira in Nigeria is proof of this dynamic.
END
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.3166
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.3484
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.56 PTS OR 0.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 487.08 OR 3.08%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 112.89/Euro FALLS TO 0.9737
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.246!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 148.28/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.244%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.415%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.318%…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.657//
3j Gold at $1617.45//silver at: 18.88 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 22/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 62.02//
3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 95 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 148,28DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.0139–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9873well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.191% UP 13 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.215% UP 9 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.5105%
end
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Tumble After Powell Rugpull, BOE Hike On Deck
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 07:55 AM
After Powell’s exquisite rugpull, where the most dovish Fed statement in almost one year was followed by the most brutally hawkish press conference where the Fed chair basically told markets to eat shit and die when he said that interest rates could go higher than previously projected, leading to the worst final 90 minutes of trading on a Fed day in history…
… US index futures extended their plunge on Thursday, signaling more losses for equities ahead of another 75bps rate hike (give or take) by the Bank of England. As of 730 a.m. ET, contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.9%, extending earlier losses.
Both underlying equity indexes have fallen for three straight days, with the S&P 500 losing 2.5% on Wednesday. The dollar gained as investors looked toward US jobs data, which may help to determine the pace of upcoming rate hikes. The pound fell more than 1% as concern mounted that a smaller-than-expected BOE hike could compound sterling’s drop, while Norway’s krone fell after its central bank delivered the smallest increase in its benchmark rate since June. 10Y Treasury yields soared to 4.20% while the 2s10s curve inverted the most in 2022, tumbling to -0.53%.
“Every time the market gets a little bit of dovish hope, it gets smacked on the nose with a rolled up newspaper,” said Scott Rundell, chief investment officer at Mutual Ltd. “There’s a lot of volatility still ahead.”
“There was perhaps a hint that the ‘jumbo’ rates increases are coming to an end, and this was sufficient for bond, credit and equity markets to initially at least perform well. The reality that the hiking cycle isn’t over yet is likely to limit the upside,” said Sandra Holdsworth, head of rates UK at Aegon Asset Management.
The Fed’s 75 basis-point increase is likely to be followed by a similar-sized hike from the Bank of England later on Thursday, though rates there are potentially limited by the risk of a severe recession. Powell disappointed traders betting on a pivot as the US economy remains resilient to stubbornly high inflation.
While Powell did his best to guide to lower future rate hikes while tightening financial conditions, investors haven’t found much respite in earnings either, with the season so far proving a mixed bag: both Moderna and Peloton imploded in premarket trading on poor earnings and a catastrophic outlook: Moderna plunged as much as 16% in premarket trading after cutting its vaccines purchase agreements guidance for 2022, while Peloton cratered 21% on a revenue miss and slashing Q2 revenue guidance. In other premarket moves, Qualcomm fell after maker of smartphone processors issued a weaker-than-expected forecast, citing the slowdown in phone markets. Rok also sank after offering cautious commentary about the advertising market. Etsy, EBay and Booking Holdings rallied after robust results. Here are some other premarket movers:
Cognizant shares fell around 10% in premarket trading following its third-quarter report as analysts say that the results and guidance reflect ongoing challenges the consultancy and outsourcing firm faces, which are now being complemented by a weakening macro picture.
Robinhood shares climbed as much as 4.8% in premarket trading. The online brokerage reached profitability earlier than expected, which analysts said was a positive sign that should increase investor confidence in the company’s strategy.
Lumen Technologies shares plunged as much as 16% in premarket trading, after the phone company reported earnings that fell short of expectations and eliminated its dividend, a move that which Wells Fargo analysts said was a “difficult” though a correct decision, that would allow the company to invest for growth.
Altice slumps 23% in premarket trading after the cable television provider reported worse-than-expected earnings per share in the third quarter and analysts drew attention to the company’s high levels of leverage and continued subscriber losses.
CF Industries earnings missed expectations on lower ammonia pricing, though analysts say the outlook for the fertilizer firm remains solid and a new share buyback is likely to be welcomed. CF shares fell 5.1% in premarket trading on thin volumes.
Fortinet shares fell about 13% in premarket trading as softer billings growth guidance and the cybersecurity firm’s decision to stop providing its closely-watched backlog number are both likely to be taken negatively, analysts say.
Booking (BKNG US) reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, as the online travel agency continues to see resiliency in demand despite macro headwinds. Shares were up 5.1% in US postmarket trading.
“Prospects for riskier asset classes look weaker as interest rate hikes continue to curtail economic growth worldwide,” Pictet chief strategist Luca Paolini said. “We therefore remain underweight on equities, whose valuations are even more difficult to justify after the recent market rally.”
European stocks fell as Fed Chair Powell’s warning of a higher peak rate continues to roil assets. Euro Stoxx 600 down 1.1%. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, while IBEX lags, dropping 1.4%. All major sectors were in the red, with real estate, travel, technology, construction and autos the main underperformers.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks snapped a three-day advance, with Hong Kong and mainland China shares losing ground after the government affirmed its Covid-Zero stance. China’s Caixin services PMI contracted more than expected. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index fell as much as 2.1%, led by consumer discretionary and tech shares. Nearly all markets in the region were down, with Australia slumping almost 2% and tech-heavy market Taiwan dropping nearly 1%. Japan was closed for a holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that tightening still has “some ways to go” were perceived to be more aggressive and hawkish than before, triggering a reversal in US shares that spilled over into Asia. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row.
“Investors may be disappointed that they did not get the pivot from the FOMC that they are wishing for, given the hawkish tone overnight,” Tai Hui, chief market strategist for APAC at JPMorgan Asset Management, wrote in a note. “This could keep some pressure on risk appetite in the coming weeks.” Declines in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks dragged the region lower after the nation’s top health body said the zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fight Covid-19. Shares in the market rallied earlier in the week as speculation grew over the nation’s reopening. “We expect the dynamic Zero-Covid strategy will stay, but there will be increasing flexibility of its implementation as authorities have now got more experience and confidence in quickly deploying control measures,” said Redmond Wong, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets
In fixed income, yields are higher across the board, led by Europe. US Treasuries hold losses as US trading day begins, extending the bear-flattening move unleashed by Wednesday’s Fed communications with Treasury yields adding 7bps to 11bps with the largest uptick seen in the short end of the curve. 2-year yield reached a new multiyear high, pushing 2s10s curve toward its YTD low. Yields across the curve higher by 7bp-10bp, 10-year around 4.18%; 2s10s little changed at -53bp after approaching -55bp, lowest since Oct. 14. US 2-year topped near 4.735%, fresh post-2007 high, 5-year at 4.423%, highest since Oct. 21, when YTD high 4.504% was reached. Dollar issuance slate empty so far after a quiet Wednesday; six issuers have sold $8 billion so far this week. Bunds and gilts trade broadly in line with Treasuries across the 10-year sector; money markets are pricing in around 72bp of rate hikes for the Bank of England meeting.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.2% as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. JPY and CAD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, while GBP tumbles ahead of the BOE. Crude futures decline.
The euro extended a decline to trade at an almost two-week low versus the greenback. Italian bonds lead euro-area peers lower as money markets raised ECB rate-hike bets in response to Wednesday’s hawkish Fed outcome.
The pound tumbled as much as 1.4% to 1.2337 per dollar before the Bank of England’s interest-rate meeting, as concern mounted that a smaller-than-expected hike could compound sterling’s drop. Gilt yields rose by around 8-10bps. The BOE is expected to raise interest rates 75bps to 3%. Options show that price action following the Bank of England decision has the potential to signal the pound’s direction into year-end
Norway’s krone pared losses after falling to a one-week low of 10.3710 per euro after Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, with estimates almost evenly distributed between a 25bps and a 50bps hike
Aussie yields climbed ~10bps across the curve. The Aussie fell more than 1% in European trading after earlier reversing an intraday loss as Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$12.4b in September from A$8.3b in August, exceeding economists’ forecast of A$8.8b
The yen held up best against the dollar among G-10 peers, with Japan on holiday
Commodities are under broad pressure given the continued post-FOMC advances in the USD, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 1.00/bbl. Metals are similar under USD-induced pressure, spot gold dropping further from the USD 1650/oz mark with LME copper below USD 7.5k/T once again. Spot gold falls roughly $14 to trade near $1,622/oz.
Bitcoin is modestly firmer on the session but continues to trade within fairly narrow parameters above the USD 20k mark post-FOMC as participants look to upcoming risk events.
Looking the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the BoE’s policy decision and Governor Bailey’s press conference. We’ll also separately hear from the BoE’s Mann and a range of ECB speakers including President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Kazaks, Panetta, Nagel, De Cos, Elderson, Villeroy, Visco, Makhlouf and Centeno. Data releases include the ISM services index from the US, the weekly initial jobless claims, and September data on the trade balance. Lastly, earnings releases include Starbucks, PayPal and Moderna.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,761.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 408.90
MXAP down 1.6% to 137.74
MXAPJ down 2.1% to 438.83
Nikkei little changed at 27,663.39
Topix up 0.1% to 1,940.46
Hang Seng Index down 3.1% to 15,339.49
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,997.81
Sensex down 0.3% to 60,705.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,857.88
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,329.17
German 10Y yield up 4.5% to 2.24%
Euro down 0.5% to $0.9767
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $94.92/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,627.50
U.S. Dollar Index up 1.17% to 112.65
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a “mild recession” is possible but that it wouldn’t be sufficient in itself to stem soaring prices
Wall Street money managers looking to pile back into Treasuries after months of losses will have to contend with a Federal Reserve that stands ready to raise the stakes every step of the way
Central banks bought 399 tons of bullion in the third quarter, almost double the previous record, according to the World Gold Council. Just under a quarter went to publicly identified institutions, stoking speculation about mystery buyers
Turkish annual inflation accelerated for the 17th month in a row in October to 85.5% y/y, driven by a surge in food prices and energy costs, to its likely peak during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two decades in power
A more detailed look at global market courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower with the global risk appetite subdued in the aftermath of the FOMC, while the risk tone was also not helped by a deterioration in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the absence of Japanese participants for Culture Day holiday. ASX 200 was pressured as underperformance in the mining-related sectors led the broad declines in the index and after the New South Wales Chief Health Officer warned of a looming wave of COVID infections. KOSPI was contained amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea’s recent record number of missile launches, while it continued firing missiles again today. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data worsened and with China’s National Health Commission reiterating adherence to zero-COVID policy, while the HKMA also raised rates by 75bps in lockstep with the Fed.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the base rate by 75bps to 4.25%, as expected, while the Macau Monetary Authority also raised its base rate for the discount window by 75bps to 4.25%.
RBNZ said there is high confidence that they can get inflation under control and that the labour shortage is the single most constraining factor for businesses in New Zealand, while Governor Orr also noted a laser-like focus on returning inflation to the 1%-3% target.
Earthquake shakes buildings within Tokyo, Japan, via Reuters citing witnesses; reports indicate an intensity of 4 and a magnitude of 5.2, epicentre in Chiba.
Malaysia Raises Key Rate by a Quarter Point Ahead of Vote
Kahoot Drops 17% After 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
China’s Top PC Maker Boosts Profit After Lowering Costs
Latest Fed Hike Reverberates Through Asia as Policy Makers React
Sharp Yen Swing Has Traders on Watch for Post-Fed Japan Reaction
European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as the post-Powell pressure reverberates across from APAC trade. Sectors are all in the red with the exception of banking names that are deriving some benefit from yields and conscious of numerous European earnings within the sector, including BNP and ING. Stateside, futures are lower across the board though only marginally so with a busy session ahead incl. BoE and ISM Services PMI; ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%. Morgan Stanley (MS) reportedly plans to begin layoffs in the coming weeks as deal making slows, according to Reuters citing sources. Cigna Corp (CI) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 6.04 (exp. 5.71), Revenue 45.3bln (exp. 44.76bln); raises FY22 outlook.
Top European News
Coal Gives Profit Boost to Offshore Wind Developer Orsted
BMW, Stellantis See Europe Demand Slowing as Inflation Bites
Rolls- Royce Falls as Engine Deliveries Hit Low End of Forecasts
Uniper Posts €40 Billion Loss as Russia Throttles Gas Supply
BNP Rides Rising Rates as Debt Trading Fuels Profit Beat
ING Plans €1.5 Billion Buyback as One-Off Charges Hit Profit
FX
USD continues to rise to the detriment of peers across the board following the FOMC/Powell-presser; DXY to a 112.91 peak from a 111.81 base.
JPY is the relative outperformer amid holiday outages for the region, the ever present possibility of intervention and perhaps some haven allure given broader risk aversion; though, USD/JPY is back above 148.00.
GBP is the standout underperformer given the USD action but also vs EUR, with EUR/GBP lifting past 0.8650 pre-BoE with the Pound unable to derive any real respite from upward PMI revisions.
NOK has been impaired by an as-guided but sub-market pricing 25bp hike from the Norges Bank; interestingly, Governor Bache hasn’t given much away on the likely December magnitude thus far.
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks under pressure across the board as yields continue to extend, particularly at the short-end of the UST curve.
Gilts are the relative outperformers, though still lower by over 50 ticks pre-BoE, as while 75bp is expected a ‘dovish’ surprise/dissent cannot be ruled out entirely.
Bunds are in-fitting with their US peer and significantly lower though they have held onto support at the 137.00 mark; for reference, numerous ECB speakers haven’t had much sway on EGB price action thus far.
Commodities
Commodities are under broad pressure given the continued post-FOMC advances in the USD, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 1.00/bbl.
Though, desks are cognisant of the substantial drawdowns in crude stockpiles this week as a potential cushioning factor.
Metals are similar under USD-induced pressure, spot gold dropping further from the USD 1650/oz mark with LME copper below USD 7.5k/T once again.
Urals and Siberian Light oil loadings from Novorossiisk set at 2.47mln/T for November (2.84mln/T in October), via Reuters citing sources
Central Banks
Norges Bank hikes by 25bps to 2.50% (exp. evenly split between 25bp & 50bp); the policy rate will most likely be raised further in December.. Click here for full details, reaction and newsquawk analysis.
ECB’s Kazaks says a EZ recession is already his baseline, but it should be shallow. Monetary policy must continue to tighten; rates need to go much higher, no need for a pause at turn of the year.
ECB’s Panetta says the medium term inflation outlook presents clear upside risks, further policy adj. is warranted. Need to bring inflation back to target as soon as possible, but not sooner.
ECB’s Lagarde says a recession is not sufficient to tame inflation.
ECB’s Centeno says a good part of rate hikes should already have occurred, EZ inflation should peak this quarter, via Publico.
Geopolitics
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a Russian plane fired cruise missiles on Wednesday which flew across the Black Sea corridor used to export grain, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Kremlin says Russia’s resumption of the grain agreement does not mean that it has been automatically extended and its results must be evaluated before a decision is made, via Al Jazeera.
South Korean military detected that North Korea fired one long-range and two short-range missiles, while it was reported that the North Korean missile went through a stage of separation but may have failed after the second stage separation, according to Yonhap.
US condemned North Korea’s ICBM launch and called on North Korea to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue, according to Reuters.
08:30: 3Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 4.0%, prior 10.2%
08:30: 3Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 0.5%, prior -4.1%
08:30: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 217,000
08:30: Continuing Claims, est. 1.45m, prior 1.44m
08:30: Sept. Trade Balance, est. -$72.2b, prior -$67.4b
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 46.6, prior 46.6
10:00: Oct. ISM Services Index, est. 55.2, prior 56.7
10:00: Sept. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
10:00: Sept. -Less Transportation, est. -0.5%, prior -0.5%
10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.5%
10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.6%, prior -0.7%
10:00: Sept. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
10:00: Sept. Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets could have saved themselves a lot of heartache and debate over the last 13 days as the WSJ article from Nick Timiraos was ultimately fairly accurate. However, the problem was that the market has been paying more attention the step-down debate Mr Timiraos hinted at rather than the rest of the article saying that the terminal rate may need to go higher. Even after the initial statement last night, the market focused on the former (with good reason). However, by the end of the press conference it was clear that this was a hawkish dovish pivot! If that makes any sense!
Let’s try to make sense of things. Firstly, the Fed of course hiked 75bps as virtually everyone expected. See our full US economics team’s wrap here.
Upon the release of the statement, markets quickly latched on to the inserted phrase that the “Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation” when assessing the path of future tightening. Market pricing assumed that this meant the Fed was teeing up a pivot, leading to a strong rally in yields and risk. The pivot/pause rally was short-lived, however, as Chair Powell stepped up to the mic and quickly disabused any interpretation that suggests a pause was forthcoming. He did so directly, saying that it was very premature to be thinking about a pause, and also by contextualising the new Statement language, highlighting that the hiking cycle had three important components: 1) the pace the Fed gets to terminal, 2) how high terminal needs to get, and 3) how long policy needs to stay restrictive. The new statement language only pertains to ‘1)’, and the Chair emphasized that the pace is not nearly as important anymore given how much tightening the Fed has done to date. Indeed, the Chair sounded more hawkish on the latter two points, noting that the data since September’s dots call for an even higher terminal rate, and that the Fed had a ways to go until achieving an appropriately restrictive stance. The tighter for longer restrictive policy stance also had the Chair bring his economic outlook closer to DB’s, as he downgraded the Fed’s prospects of achieving a soft landing, upgrading the probability he placed on a recession.
Powell was hawkish elsewhere in the presser, noting that it was still riskier to under- rather than over-tighten, given how precariously balanced inflation expectations are as core inflation continues to stay elevated. Over a longer time horizon, Powell noted that the historical record argued against prematurely loosening policy when inflation was this high. While some asked about greenshoots in the battle against inflation, Powell was much more focused on a labour market which remained historically tight and showing no signs of letting up.
The slower pace but higher terminal message (one that was reflected in that aforementioned WSJ article) was eventually well-understood by the market. Pricing for the December FOMC moved down -2.0bps to 56.5bps, while terminal pricing for May moved up +5.0bps to 5.10%, a new cycle high. Meanwhile, the rest of the Treasury yield curve and the S&P 500 fully retraced the post-statement pre-press conference rally, leaving 2yr yields +7.5bps higher and 10yr yields up +5.9bps, having climbed +18.7bps and +13.3bps, respectively, from the post statement lows. There is no cash trading of Treasuries in Asia this morning with Japan on holiday. (Meanwhile, the S&P 500 finished the day -2.50% having been +0.98% after the statement, making it the worst Fed day for the S&P 500 since January 2021. Likewise, the NASDAQ rallied into positive territory after the statement (+0.93%), only to take a sharp turn lower to end the day down -3.36%. In overnight trading, US futures are showing a small rebound with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (+0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.32%) both trading in positive territory. Qualcomm’s shares fell -7.10% after hours though following earnings where they lowered revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter on the back of slowing phone demand as well as continued Covid lockdowns in China.
Ahead of the Fed, European markets put in a pretty downbeat performance, with the major equity indices including the STOXX 600 (-0.29%) moving lower. That followed the release of the final manufacturing PMIs for October in Europe, which saw downward revisions relative to the flash readings and cemented the sense that Q4 had got off to a pretty weak start for the continent. For example, the manufacturing PMI for the Euro Area as a whole was revised down to 46.4 (vs. flash 46.6), with downward revisions in France and Germany too.
Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today as the BoE announce their latest decision, with a 75bps hike widely expected that would take Bank Rate up to 3% and its highest level since 2008. Since the BoE’s last meeting in September, an awful lot has happened in the UK, including a mini-budget that triggered market turmoil, a temporary BoE intervention to buy longer-dated gilts, a policy reversal on most of that mini-budget, and then Liz Truss’ replacement as PM by Rishi Sunak. That volatility has been reflected in market pricing for today’s decision as well. Straight after the last meeting, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 75bps hike, but at the height of the mini-budget turmoil they went as far as pricing in more than 200bps worth by today, including a decent chance of an intermeeting hike. However, as the situation has calmed down, pricing has returned to its original starting point of a 75bps hike again, which is what our UK economist is forecasting for today as well (link here).
Gilts strongly outperformed ahead of the BoE’s decision today, with the 2yr yield seeing a sizeable move lower of -17.3bps, whilst the 10yr yield was down -7.1bps. That contrasted with the rest of Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OATs (flat) and BTPs (+2.9bps) were all little changed.
The overnight sharp losses on Wall Street are echoing in Asia this morning with the Hang Seng (-2.82%) leading losses followed by the CSI (-1.23%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.63%) and the KOSPI (-0.31%). Additionally, China’s top health body, the National Health Commission reaffirming the government’s Zero-Covid stance is also weighing on sentiment after excitement earlier in the week that China was set to loosen restrictions. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday.
Data coming out of China showed that the Caixin services PMI for October further contracted to 48.4, the lowest reading since May after deteriorating to 49.3 in September thus underscoring the impact of strict COVID-19 restrictions sweeping the country. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus in September (A$12.4 bn) widened substantially from A$8.7 bn in August (v/s A$8.8 bn expected) led by a big surge in exports (+7.0% m/m) with little change in imports. Staying on Australia, bonds have tumbled with yields on the 3yr bond (+10.7 bps) climbing upwards, trading at 3.46% after the Fed.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US showed growth of +239k in October (vs. 185k expected). That comes ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, where our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have grown by +225k. Otherwise, German unemployment rose by +8k in October (vs. +12.5k expected), leaving the unemployment rate at 5.5% as expected.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the BoE’s policy decision and Governor Bailey’s press conference. We’ll also separately hear from the BoE’s Mann and a range of ECB speakers including President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Kazaks, Panetta, Nagel, De Cos, Elderson, Villeroy, Visco, Makhlouf and Centeno. Data releases include the ISM services index from the US, the weekly initial jobless claims, and September data on the trade balance and from the Euro Area we’ll also get the unemployment rate for September. Lastly, earnings releases include Starbucks, PayPal and Moderna.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Post-Powell risk-off continues; Norges hikes 25bps, BoE up next – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 06:42 AM
European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as the post-Powell pressure reverberates across from APAC trade.
Stateside, futures are lower across the board though only marginally so with a busy session ahead incl. BoE and ISM Services PMI; ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%.
USD continues to rise to the detriment of peers across the board following the FOMC/Powell-presser; DXY to a 112.98 peak from a 111.81 base.
NOK has been impaired by an as-guided but sub-market pricing 25bp hike from the Norges Bank
Core fixed benchmarks under pressure across the board as yields continue to extend, particularly at the short-end of the UST curve.
Commodities are under broad pressure given the continued post-FOMC advances in the USD, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 1.00/bbl.
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Composite/Services PMI (Final), Factory Orders & ISM Services, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Mann.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as the post-Powell pressure reverberates across from APAC trade.
Sectors are all in the red with the exception of banking names that are deriving some benefit from yields and conscious of numerous European earnings within the sector, including BNP and ING.
Stateside, futures are lower across the board though only marginally so with a busy session ahead incl. BoE and ISM Services PMI; ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%.
Morgan Stanley (MS) reportedly plans to begin layoffs in the coming weeks as deal making slows, according to Reuters citing sources.
USD continues to rise to the detriment of peers across the board following the FOMC/Powell-presser; DXY to a 112.91 peak from a 111.81 base.
JPY is the relative outperformer amid holiday outages for the region, the ever present possibility of intervention and perhaps some haven allure given broader risk aversion; though, USD/JPY is back above 148.00.
GBP is the standout underperformer given the USD action but also vs EUR, with EUR/GBP lifting past 0.8650 pre-BoE with the Pound unable to derive any real respite from upward PMI revisions.
NOK has been impaired by an as-guided but sub-market pricing 25bp hike from the Norges Bank; interestingly, Governor Bache hasn’t given much away on the likely December magnitude thus far.
Core benchmarks under pressure across the board as yields continue to extend, particularly at the short-end of the UST curve.
Gilts are the relative outperformers, though still lower by over 50 ticks pre-BoE, as while 75bp is expected a ‘dovish’ surprise/dissent cannot be ruled out entirely.
Bunds are in-fitting with their US peer and significantly lower though they have held onto support at the 137.00 mark; for reference, numerous ECB speakers haven’t had much sway on EGB price action thus far.
Norges Bank hikes by 25bps to 2.50% (exp. evenly split between 25bp & 50bp); the policy rate will most likely be raised further in December.. Click here for full details, reaction and newsquawk analysis.
ECB’s Kazaks says a EZ recession is already his baseline, but it should be shallow. Monetary policy must continue to tighten; rates need to go much higher, no need for a pause at turn of the year.
ECB’s Panetta says the medium term inflation outlook presents clear upside risks, further policy adj. is warranted. Need to bring inflation back to target as soon as possible, but not sooner.
ECB’s Lagarde says a recession is not sufficient to tame inflation.
ECB’s Centeno says a good part of rate hikes should already have occurred, EZ inflation should peak this quarter, via Publico.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt are planning to extend the windfall taxes on oil and gas companies to raise an estimated GBP 40bln over 5 years, according to The Times.
ECB’s Kazaks said inflation is very high in the eurozone and it is clear we need to raise interest rates, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final (Oct) 48.8 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.5); Composite PMI Final (Oct) 48.2 vs. Exp. 47.2 (Prev. 47.2)
EU Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.6%, Rev. 6.7%).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Elon Musk is planning to eliminate half of Twitter jobs in a cost-cutting drive, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin is modestly firmer on the session but continues to trade within fairly narrow parameters above the USD 20k mark post-FOMC as participants look to upcoming risk events.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a Russian plane fired cruise missiles on Wednesday which flew across the Black Sea corridor used to export grain, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Kremlin says Russia’s resumption of the grain agreement does not mean that it has been automatically extended and its results must be evaluated before a decision is made, via Al Jazeera.
OTHER
South Korean military detected that North Korea fired one long-range and two short-range missiles, while it was reported that the North Korean missile went through a stage of separation but may have failed after the second stage separation, according to Yonhap.
US condemned North Korea’s ICBM launch and called on North Korea to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly lower with the global risk appetite subdued in the aftermath of the FOMC, while the risk tone was also not helped by a deterioration in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the absence of Japanese participants for Culture Day holiday.
ASX 200 was pressured as underperformance in the mining-related sectors led the broad declines in the index and after the New South Wales Chief Health Officer warned of a looming wave of COVID infections.
KOSPI was contained amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea’s recent record number of missile launches, while it continued firing missiles again today.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data worsened and with China’s National Health Commission reiterating adherence to zero-COVID policy, while the HKMA also raised rates by 75bps in lockstep with the Fed.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the base rate by 75bps to 4.25%, as expected, while the Macau Monetary Authority also raised its base rate for the discount window by 75bps to 4.25%.
RBNZ said there is high confidence that they can get inflation under control and that the labour shortage is the single most constraining factor for businesses in New Zealand, while Governor Orr also noted a laser-like focus on returning inflation to the 1%-3% target.
Earthquake shakes buildings within Tokyo, Japan, via Reuters citing witnesses; reports indicate an intensity of 4 and a magnitude of 5.2, epicentre in Chiba.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Oct) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 49.3); Composite PMI (Oct) 48.3 (Prev. 48.5)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD) (Sep) 12.4B vs. Exp. 8.9B (Prev. 8.3B); Exports MM (Sep) 7% (Prev. 3%); Imports MM (Sep) 0% (Prev. 4%)
i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.56 PTS OR 0.19% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 487.08 OR 3.08% /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.77% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.4166 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3104// /Oil UP TO 88.48, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/RUSSIA
END
3c CHINA
CHINA/Zhengzhou (i-phone city)
Zhengzhou locks down the city as workers flee iphone Foxconn amid COVID chaos
(zerohedge)
China’s ‘iPhone City’ Locks Down As Workers Flee Factory Amid Zero Covid Chaos
WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 07:50 PM
A week-long lockdown was implemented around the world’s largest iPhone factory in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou. Beijing is ramping up its zero Covid policy despite internet rumors suggesting otherwise, only to be proven false this morning.
Zhengzhou officials posted a statement on WeChat stating that the lockdown in the metro area would last through November 9.
It [memo on WeChat] ordered people and vehicles off the streets except for medical or other essential reasons, a prohibition that threatens to cut off the flow of additional workers and components needed to rev up production ahead of the holiday-season crush. —Bloomberg
The lockdown could significantly impact Foxconn’s largest iPhone factory, producing four of five of Apple’s latest handsets.
Last month, Foxconn closed off the factory of 200,000 employees to the outside world due to an outbreak of infections, embracing a “closed loop” system, where workers live on campus and are prohibited from physical contact with the outside world – including family members.
As a result of the lockdowns, cafeterias at the manufacturing site were shut down, and workers on assembly lines were given “meal boxes.” Some employees have remained locked down in their dormitories and were given only instant noodles. Unrest is rising at the factory as workers are fed up with cramped living and working conditions.
There have also been reports of workers escaping from the factory. WaPo interviewed one worker named “Zhuo,” 19, who was among hundreds of others that busted out.
On Friday, Zhuo decided to make a run for it. He climbed a seven-foot wall, ducked under a fence through a hole dug out by workers who fled before him and walked almost 15 miles before getting a ride from a passerby.
“There were around 200 of us that evening. It was like a prison break movie,” Zhuo said by phone from a quarantine hotel near his home in Henan province. Zhuo did not give his full name out of security concerns.
The lockdown of the surrounding area and chaos in and around the factory comes as Apple just launched the iPhone 14.
Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam said the factory is responsible for 80% of iPhone 14 production and 85% of iPhone 14 Pro production.
There have been no reports of disruptions yet, and the factory is supposedly well-supplied with components to operate “for a while,” according to Bloomberg.
No wonder a growing number of US companies with manufacturing facilities in China are looking to rejigger supply chains elsewhere. What a mess China has become under zero Covid policies.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
UK
UK hikes rates by .75%, the most in 30 years and yet they pushed back against hawkish market expectations. In other words, interest rates are too high!
(zerohedge)
BoE Hikes Rates By Most In 30 Years, Pushes Back Against Hawkish Market Expectations
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 08:14 AM
The Bank of England hiked rates by 75bps as expected (7 voted for 75bps, 1 voted for 50bps, and 1 voted for 25bps) after CPI soared to a 40-year high in September.
This is the biggest BoE rate-hike in three decades (eighth hike in a row and the biggest since 1992), but we note that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) pushed back aggressively against the hawkish market expectations ahead.
…the peak in rates will be “lower than priced into financial markets”
The BOE is expressly dovish in trying to guide market expectations on interest rates lower:
“The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.”
Valentin Marinov, head of G10 currency research at Credit Agricole:
The BOE is “sending a clear signal that the Bank Rate path expected by the markets ahead of the policy meeting is too high. The outcome contrasts sharply with the hawkish message from Fed Chain Powell yesterday and could trigger further drop of the GBP-USD rate spread, adding to the headwinds for GBP/USD.”
BoE commented on recent market volatility:
There have been large moves in UK asset prices since the August Report. These partly reflect global developments, although UK-specific factors have played a very significant role during this period.
The MPC expects more economic pain ahead…and implies the UK is already in recession, and that GDP will fall for eight straight quarters until mid-2024.
GDP is expected to decline by around 3/4% during 2022 H2, in part reflecting the squeeze on real incomes from higher global energy and tradable goods prices.
GDP is projected to continue to fall throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending.
And while they see inflation rising, they forecast it to rise less than previously guessed:
CPI inflation was 10.1% in September and is projected to pick up to around 11% in 2022 Q4, lower than was expected in August, reflecting the impact of the EPG.
The risks around both sets of inflation projections are judged to be skewed to the upside in the medium term, however, in part reflecting the possibility of more persistence in wage and price setting.
Cable extended its losses…
2Y Gilt yields tumbled but then reversed…
The tone of the statement is a stark contrast from what we heard from the Fed’s Jerome Powell yesterday, and explains the move lower in the pound versus the dollar. It speaks to how the UK economy remains far more fragile.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, this is what we expected (courtesy of Bloomberg’s Ven Ram)…
Decision:
Interest-rate traders are well-positioned for a 75-basis point increase from the BOE, and it would be a shock if the central bank delivered a smaller hike. The big question will be whether the BOE will commit to keep going at a faster pace or signal that the move would be a strict one-off measure.
With the markets pricing a terminal rate of circa 4.70%, an underwhelming move would imply the BOE has to keep going longer.
Dissent:
Given where retail-price inflation is in the UK, the BOE’s policy may just be approaching neutral territory. So it was a surprise that we got one member pressing for just a 25-basis point increase at the previous meeting — before when the policy rate was even lower. In other words, one should perhaps expect such uber-doves to dissent again, though it’s not clear if a second member may join that chorus. We may get a 8-1 vote or a 7-2 in favor of a 75-basis point move.
Forecasts:
With the government’s fiscal plan having been deferred to Nov. 17, the BOE’s new macroeconomic forecasts may be moot before the ink dries on the print. Given the likely fiscal tightening and in light of Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent’s comments that rates perhaps don’t need to rise as high as the markets are pricing, inflation could be projected to fall below target, with colleague Dan Hanson estimating that the previous estimate for annual consumer-price inflation for mid-2025 may be below September’s 0.8% assessment. The BOE is also likely to lower its economic growth forecast given rising interest rates and a slowing housing market, among other things.
The front end of the gilts curve may dominate action in the aftermath of the decision, with the long end perhaps likely to display a more tentative intent ahead of Downing Street’s fiscal plan. Regardless of any knee-jerk reaction, the pound will continue to take its cue from what’s happening elsewhere in G-10.
end
POLAND/KALININGRAD
Poland begins construction of razor wire barrier along its western border with Russia’s exclave, Kaliningrad
(Roberts/EpochTimes)
Poland Begins Construction Of Razor-Wire Barrier Along Border With Russia’s Kaliningrad Amid Security Concerns
Poland has begun constructing a razor-wire fence on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad, where Moscow has a significant military presence, officials said on Nov. 2.
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak meet with service members near the frontier, as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian side of the border with Poland in an attempt to cross it, near Kuznica in Bialostocka, Poland, on Nov. 9, 2021. (Polish Prime Minister’s Office/Handout via Reuters)
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told reporters at a news conference that he has ordered the temporary barrier to be built immediately to ensure that Poland is secure. The barrier will measure 2.5 meters (eight feet) high and three meters (10 feet) deep along the 210-kilometer (130-mile) border.
Błaszczak cited security concerns as the reason behind the construction at the border, which comes amid ongoing tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Warsaw is also concerned that the Kremlin plans to facilitate illegal border crossings by Asian and African immigrants in an effort to destabilize Europe, concerns prompted by a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad.
The border area, which is patrolled by border guards, has no physical barrier. Polish soldiers specializing in demining began carrying out the initial prep work on Nov. 2.
The barrier is due to be completed by the end of 2023, Błaszczak said.
He referenced the 2021 crisis during which thousands of African and Middle Eastern illegal aliens attempted to cross the border of Belarus, a close ally of Russia, into Poland. Many of those border crossers died, and Poland subsequently erected a steel wall on the Belarus border to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. That border was completed in June.
At the time, Polish and other European Union leaders accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s government of encouraging immigrants from the Middle East to travel to Minsk and make their way into Europe.
Belarus officials denied those claims.
A member of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service stands near the border with Belarus and Poland in the Volyn region of Ukraine on Nov. 16, 2021. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)
Poland–Russia Border ‘Stable and Calm’
Human rights groups then accused Poland of double standards after the nation welcomed an influx of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion while simultaneously moving to prevent Middle Eastern and North African migrants from entering via the Belarus border.
“If you give a lift to a refugee at the Ukrainian border, you are a hero. If you do it at the Belarus border, you are a smuggler and could end up in jail for eight years,” said Natalia Gebert, founder and CEO of Dom Otwarty, or Open House, a Polish nongovernmental organization that helps refugees, according to a June report by The Associated Press.
Kaliningrad is a semi-exclave—a portion of a country that’s geographically separated from the main part by a surrounding foreign territory—that lies on the Baltic Sea and is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania and separated from Belarus by a border corridor.
Despite there being no barrier along the border, a spokesperson for the Polish Border Guard told Reuters that there were no illegal entries from Kaliningrad into Poland in October.
“The Polish–Russian border is stable and calm. There has been no illegal crossing of the border,” Polish border spokesperson Anna Michalska said. “We are not only there in times of peace. We are prepared for various crisis situations, and after what happened on the Polish–Belarusian border, we are even more prepared for everything, for all of the darkest scenarios.”
end
GERMANY/CHINA/USA
A MUST READ..
The contrarian view of Germany in China
Robert Hryniak
1:01 PM (29 minutes ago)
to
This comes via German Industrialists who had enough of American dictates; Scholz is going to China TO WORK OUT A PEACE DEAL WITH RUSSIA VIA BEIJING.
How crazy is that? Never forget, as I pointed out in the past, that Berlin and Moscow were keeping a secret communication back channel right to the minute the usual suspects, in desperation, blew up the Nord Stream2. Albeit not very well. The Truss twitter to Blinken saying it is done when no one knew 1 minute after the explosion raises many questions.
It is conceivable that Scholz delegation may be trying to start a process of replacing the US with China as an ally. Never forget that the China now are 25% owner of the Hamburg Port. A move made by Scholz over riding many cabinet objections.
Ponder this quote ”if this effort is successful, then Germany (EU), China and Russia can ally themselves together and drive the US out of Europe.” If this was to occur it would be seismic shift in American Hegemony in Europe and a direct challenge to the existence of NATO, as it currently stands. The game board is far wider than the Ukraine, which in of itself has caused global strife which is being exploited. And in addition this will potentially have a wide impact on all European countries left to find their own way out of a potential greater mess, than they are in now.
“Olaf Scholz is being accompanied on this trip by German industrialists who actually control Germany and are not going to sit back watching themselves being destroyed.” And this reality suggests that Germany may turn its’ back to the West to embrace what is referred as the Global South. Remember India has a huge stake in the outcome and has been kept in the loop by the Moscow.
While this maybe speculation by a one side of the tables it is clear by who is accompanying Olaf that he is on a short lease by industrialists who do not want to endanger their investments in China and want out from the boot of Americans. This is likely a Hail Mary because without a change of direction Germany is headed into a dark future. And if successful they will need Chinese might to counter the American boot. Whose stomp will be much harder than it has been as such a event would broadside American influence. This also implies a huge risk to both America and Britain where relationships are quickly becoming distant as on the ground affairs worsen. There are many cooks in this kitchen, all with varying agendas and it will be more than interesting to see what happens. Because if Germany can really bolt then the EU is finished far sooner than people think and perhaps they secretly will be admitted into the BRICS before it is publicly announced.
The times are a changing.
end
TURKEY
Lira Hits Record Low As Turkey’s Annual Inflation Soars To Two-Decade High Of 85%
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 01:26 PM
Turkey’s annual inflation has hit its highest level in 24 years, worsening the cost-of-living crisis facing the country, even as political opposition parties claim that real numbers are worse than official figures.
The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on an annual basis, hit 85.51 percent in October, according to a press release from the Turkish Statistical Institute on Nov. 3. This is the seventeenth consecutive month that inflation has risen in Turkey. It is up by 3.54 percent from the previous month. The lowest inflation rate was in the communication and education sectors, which both rose by over 30 percent.
The transportation sector saw the highest annual inflation, at 117.15 percent; followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages at 99.05 percent; furnishings and household equipment at 93.63 percent; and housing at 85.17 percent.
Istanbul city annual retail inflation accelerates to 108.77% in October from 107.42% in September, according to data published by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (thats basically 10% every month!).
According to independent economists from Turkey’s ENAG research institute, the 12-month CPI was at 185.34 percent in October. On a monthly basis, CPI is calculated to have risen by 7.18 percent for the month.
Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu insists that the Turkish government is hiding real inflation data due to the salary it owes to public employees.
“Why does the TUIK [statistics agency] disguise the real figure?” he asked last month, according to RFI.
“Because when it gives the real figure, the pensions will be determined accordingly. Workers’ wages will be determined accordingly. Civil servants’ salaries will be determined accordingly. If you show it low, it will give a low raise.”
Erdogan’s Contradictory Policies
Many economists blame Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies for having pushed the country into an inflation crisis. While traditional economic thought posits that raising interest rates will help control inflation, Erdogan believes that higher rates will result in higher prices.
As such, the Turkish president has been pushing to lower interest rates. In October, the country’s central bank slashed interest rates to 10.5 percent, the third straight monthly reduction. Erdogan has also indicated that he plans to implement more rate cuts and bring down rates to single digits.
Economists point out that the policy of lowering interest rates is hurting the national currency lira and adding upward pressure on inflation.
Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economics, wrote in an analyst note that the Turkish central bank will continue to remain under pressure from the president to follow a “looser policy,” according to CNBC.
“Although the CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey] said it will deliver one more 150 basis-point interest rate cut at its meeting later this month, there is a risk of further easing beyond that, adding more downward pressure onto the lira,” he said.
…new record lows.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA
this is important. There is a very important dam located in the Kherson region. If the Ukrainians bomb the dam, then over 100,000 Kherson citizens would drown. Russia is very fearful of this and they are now preparing to move 70,000 citizens from the region
(zerohedge)
Russia Preparing To Move 70,000 Civilians From Kherson Region
WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 09:10 PM
Russia is preparing to order a “compulsory” transfer of tens of thousands of residents in the Kherson region as the fight for the south heats up. This could involve as many as 70,000 civilians in what would mark a large-scale Russian withdrawal from the occupied Ukrainian city.
Citing Russian officials, The Wall Street Journalreports that “starting Sunday they would begin relocating residents from the Kakhovsky district on the east bank of the Dnipro River due to what they claim is the possibility of a Ukrainian attack on a strategic dam nearby.” Already evacuations have been ongoing for weeks from the city as fighting and heavy shelling encroach.
And the pro-Russian governor of Kherson Volodymyr Saldo confirmed preparations for a mandated evacuation ahead of advancing Ukrainian forces, which a Russian decree said will be “in a compulsory manner.” Russian officials say this is necessary because Ukraine forces are plotting a “massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric station” to flood Kherson.
Ukraine has denied these plans of course, and has in turn accused the Russian side of essentially using the large civilian transfer as one big “human shield”:
“They want to create the impression that this is a civilian evacuation. Surrounded by civilians they understand that they have a degree of safety,” said a spokeswoman for the southern command of Ukraine’s armed forces.
They say Russian military vehicles are intentionally mixing with civilian convoys as they exit the region.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian media sources are touting that the national armed forces have conductedat least 100 firing missions on Wednesday, conducted by artillery and missile units.
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck an extremely successful blow on the occupiers in Kherson, hitting the air defense systems at Spartak stadium, which were used to attack Mykolaiv,” a statement from an official with Ukraine’s Kherson Regional Council said on Facebook.
A report this week in the Associated Press said that many among the recently mobilized Russian recruits have been sent to Kherson front lines, despite official denials from the Kremlin.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UK/CRIMEA
Russia to present evidence that uK special forces are behind the Crimea attacks
(zerohedge0
Russia To Present ‘Evidence’ UK Special Forces Behind Crimea Attacks
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 04:15 AM
Moscow says it has firm evidence that Britain’s military assisted with last weekend’s large-scale drone attack on its Black Sea fleet off Crimea.
Russia said it plans to summon the British ambassador “in the near future” in order to present “evidence” the UK was behind the operation, which had threatened to collapse the UN-brokered Ukrainian grain export deal.
While Russia has on Wednesday announced it is re-entering the grain deal after receiving “guarantees” from Ukraine and Turkey, it is still pointing the finger at London for sending “specialists” to help Kiev forces launch Saturday’s drone attack.
Kremlin officials have yet to provide proof, but stated the following on Wednesday:
“The U.K. ambassador will be summoned and will be given the appropriate materials,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, adding the meeting would take place “in the near future.”
“The basic materials will be handed over as evidence to the British side and will also be shown to the general public,” she added.
Zakharova then said the evidence will be published for the world to see, following a blistering Saturday statement which alleged the Ukrainian army launched the drone attack “under the leadership of British specialists in the city of Ochakiv” in southern Ukraine.
As for the major drone operation, which likely damaged multiple Russian Navy vessels, The Guardian described based on videos which emerged of some of the attacks:
Russia’s Black Sea flagship vessel, the Admiral Makarov, was damaged and possibly disabled during an audacious Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend on the Crimean port of Sevastopol, according to an examination of video footage.
Open-source investigators said the frigate was one of three Russian ships to have been hit on Saturday. A swarm of drones – some flying in the air, others skimming rapidly along the water – struck Russia’s navy at 4.20 am. Video from one of the sea drones shows the unmanned vehicle weaving between enemy boats.
Ukrainian officials said it was unclear if the Admiral Makarov was badly crippled, or had escaped with light damage. Unconfirmed reports said its hull was breached and radar systems smashed. Social media recorded loud explosions in the southern part of Sevastopol, in an area known as Riflemen’s Bay. A Russian navy school is located nearby.
It should be noted that Russia has also of late accused British special operatives of helping to plan the September sabotage attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic. The US has rejected these charges as “false claims on an epic scale.”
November 3, 2022: The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday summoned British Ambassador to Russia Deborah Bronnert in Moscow concerning London’s suspected involvement on October 29 in connection with last week’s attack targeting Russian military and civilian vessels in Sevastopol with drones. Moscow said the incident was an act of terrorism and promptly freeze temporarily its participation in the Black Sea grain export deal with Kiev brokered by the United Nation.
The ministry on Thursday released a statement indicating that it had information that London transferred a number of unmanned underwater drones to Kiev, and that British specialists were actively involved in the training and supply of Ukrainian special operations forces, to include those involved in sabotage operations at sea.
The threatening actions by Britain to escalate the security crisis could lead to “unpredictable and dangerous consequences,” said Moscow, and is warning that such “hostile provocations” on London’s part were “inadmissible” and must immediately stop.
If the Brits were not not involved their Ambassador would not have been summoned. And one can be sure they have the evidence. Actually they caught the raw camera footage and the communications links as i have seen the footage
END
UKRAINE/USA//FINLAND
Looks at where some of the weapons from the west end up at:
(courtesy Mandiner/Remix news)
Some Weapons Destined For Ukraine Ending Up With Finnish Criminals
Organized crime is on the rise in Finland, and there’s a high demand for weapons. Criminal networks have already established weapon smuggling routes between Finland and Poland.
Europol, the European police cooperation organization, is reported to have warned in the summer that armed criminal groups could soon start smuggling weapons from Ukraine to EU member states.
According to Christer Ahlgren, superintendent of the Organized Crime Intelligence Unit of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation (Keskusrikospoliisi, KRP), Europol’s prediction has already become a reality in Finland:
“We are seeing signs that these weapons are already in Finland, (…) and we have already seen signs that weapons delivered to Ukraine have been found in Finland,” Ahlgren says.
The Finnish law enforcement official said this mostly means handguns and heavier weapons used by the military, such as machine guns. However, they know from their foreign colleagues that there is also great demand for explosive grenades and military drones, and “in other parts of Europe, we have also found anti-tank missiles from Ukraine.”
There are fears that the Javelin anti-tank missile could also make its way into the hands of Europe’s criminals. The missile was one of the keys to the Ukrainians’ successful defense in the early stages of the war, and the U.S. and Britain have been supplying Ukraine with countless quantities of this easy-to-handle weapon, which is highly effective against tanks. The missile reportedly appeared on the dark web for sale this summer, but there is no documented case of it being used in any attack outside of Ukraine.
Rifles, handguns and other weapons from Ukraine are not only landing in Finland, but have also turned up in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands
The smuggling routes are set
Ahlgren says that “the routes, processes and connections for the illegal smuggling of weapons from Ukraine to Finland are already in place.” The arms are mostly transported via the country’s international ports, which are considerably less protected than airports, and the smugglers are criminal gangs, such as the big international motorcycle gangs. One of them, Bandidos MC Ahlgren, which is also active in Finland, has branches in all major Ukrainian cities.
Yle reported on Sunday that Europol is already expecting criminal gangs to set up arms depots near Ukraine’s borders; it also knows of Ukrainian refugees who have paid for transportation to the border with weapons rather than money.
According to Ahlgren, the amount of weapons in question is much greater than during the Yugoslav war, when gangs in Sweden stockpiled weapons. Now, as a result of illegal migration, “we have clans based on blood ties and ethnicity that are engaged in criminal activity.”
Ahlgren said he believes that while supplying weapons to Ukraine is the right thing to do, it has consequences.
“Ukraine has received a tremendous amount of arms, and that’s a good thing, but we will be dealing with these weapons for decades, and we are paying the price here,” he said. “The decision-makers have forgotten that the war in Ukraine has also increased the workload of the police.”
end
RUSSIA/NATO
NATO has doubled troops on border – Russia — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
Huge Australian Die Off/ Genocide Intensifies: Govt Tries To Conceal MASSIVE & GROWING Death Spike
Robert Hryniak
9:32 AM (8 minutes ago)
to
This is ugly.
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//
The largest owner of container ships issues one of the best bellwether warnings on global trade
(zerohedge)
“Dark Clouds On Horizon”: Maersk Warns About Rapid Economic Deterioration
WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 06:40 PM
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest owner of container ships and one of the best bellwethers for global trade, lowered its outlook for the growth of 2022 global container demand and warned next year could be worse.
Maersk’s warning about a slowdown in container demand and economic turmoil ahead was conveyed in a third-quarter earnings report released today and in an interview by the company’s top executive on Bloomberg.
The Copenhagen-based company lowered its outlook for the growth of 2022 global container demand to decline 2-4% from the previous estimate of plus or minus 1%. The forecast sent Maersk’s shares tumbling nearly 6%.
“However, it is clear that freight rates have peaked and started to normalize during the quarter, driven by both decreasing demand and easing of supply chain congestion. As anticipated all year, earnings in Ocean will come down in the coming periods,” Maersk wrote in the earnings report.
“There are plenty of dark clouds on the horizon,” the company continued, adding, “this weighs on consumer purchasing power which in turn impacts global transportation and logistics demand.”
It then warned: “With the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, and a looming global recession.”
Maersk CEO Soren Skou joined Bloomberg TV this morning for an interview where he said, “it’s really hard to be very optimistic with a war on our doorstep and a bigger energy crisis this winter so that is impacting consumer confidence and therefore also demand.” He added:
“Global trade is moving backward this year.”
The company expects the global container market to be “broadly flat to negative” as risks in 2023 are “skewed to the downside” due to the macroeconomic headwinds. Skou noted in the interview that it is “clearly better for the economy and for our customers” to have lower freight rates.
Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.
Maersk’s warning comes as central banks are engaged in the most aggressive interest rate hikes in decades to quell inflation. Any overtightening could spark a global recession next year.
Perhaps, JP Morgan’s consolidated manufacturing PMIs suggest mounting recession risks and declining price pressure are a big theme in 2022
“Beijing: In what can come as a huge embarrassment for President Xi Jinping, a Chinese National Health Commission (NHC) document showed that the Chinese COVID-19 vaccines had caused leukaemia, a report stated.
The Chinese NHC has alerted the authorities about people complaining of having leukaemia after taking the COVID vaccines. The NHC copy has been sent to 18 provinces including Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi, and others, news agency ANI report said.”
“The World Health Organization (WHO) had validated the Sinopharm vaccine and Sinovac-CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccines for emergency use. Both the vaccines were developed by Chinese pharmaceutical companies.
WHO’s Emergency Use Listing (EUL) is a prerequisite for COVAX Facility vaccine supply and international procurement. It also allows countries to expedite their own regulatory approval to import and administer COVID-19 vaccines.
“If you help me win, I promise to subpoena every last document of Dr. Fauci’s unprecedented coverup,” said a Rand Paul fundraising email”; this time we need you to come through, Rand, we want JUSTICE!
‘The Kentucky senator, who has clashed with Anthony S. Fauci and other health officials throughout the pandemic, is in line to lead a Senate committee should he win reelection and Republicans retake the chamber next week. (While Paul is heavily favored in his own race, control of the Senate is viewed as a toss-up by pollsters.) GOP control would give the libertarian doctor — an outspoken critic of the government’s coronavirus policies — the power to lead investigations and help set legislative priorities next year, either as chairman of the Senate’s sweeping health committee or its more targeted government oversight panel.’
“The Old Party Paradigm Is Over, Much As Markets Refuse To Accept It”B
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 12:08 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The party is ending / The Party is starting
First, the important good news: the Ukraine grain deal is back on after Russia backed off. As our grains maven Michael Magdovitz comments, the Kremlin phone was probably ringing off the hook… and not from the West, but from hungry Russian allies. Now to the bad news.
The party is ending…
…and all those expecting the Fed to shift in a dovish direction yesterday are being shown up as a bunch of pivots.
The Fed raised 75bp to 4.00% yesterday, as expected. There was an initial market attempt to rally at language suggesting they were aware policy acts with a lag, which sounded pivot-y. Then Powell spoke, and crushed those hopes. True, he flagged the pace of rate hikes might slow from its breakneck pace: but he made it abundantly clear smaller rate hikes would continue for longer than many expected. Moreover, when a journalist pointed out to him that stocks were rising after his latest move, he deliberately underlined that if the FOMC had known in September what it knows now, it would have plotted its dots higher for where Fed Funds will peak. That means a higher terminal rate ahead –the market’s assumption is now 5.10% vs. 4.85% recently– and a deliberate attempt to jawbone markets lower, not higher.
You can make the argument that this is about a wage-price spiral, which Powell said he doesn’t see, despite the ADP report yesterday suggesting nominal wage growth is up to 7.7% y-o-y; or that this is about overheating; or that Powell is wrong, because things are cooling fast; or that he hates financialisation and loves the industrial economy – as the FT flags that the US will be sucking in EU industry crippled by rising power bills; or, relatedly, that this is about the geopolitics of power, and of commodities vs. the global role and value of the US dollar; or any combination of the above. It actually doesn’t matter, because the key conclusion is still the same:
Powell doesn’t want to see financial conditions ease. He doesn’t want to see higher equities. He doesn’t want to see lower bond yields. He doesn’t want to see a weaker dollar. The old party paradigm is over, much as markets refuse to accept it.
The Party is starting…
…and all those expecting a shift in a bullish stimulus direction are also being shown up as a bunch of pivots.
Speaking earlier yesterday at Hong Kong’s financial shindig, the UBS CEO stated he doesn’t read the US press, only the Chinese, and that global banks are “very pro-China” despite the 20th CCP Congress reiterating its belief in a Marxism-Leninism which says, “The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” One also has to wonder, if global banks are pro-China, but Western politicians are increasingly not, where does that logically leave said politicians vis-à-vis global banks?
True, money-over-ideology worked nicely for both sides for years. Yet it also did under Lenin’s New Economic Policy in the USSR in the 1920s until that ended with Stalinism, as Joe saw the 1940s coming, and decided to prepare. As unaware of that history as CEOs but perhaps indirectly echoing it, Bloomberg’s Shuli Ren bewails in ‘Hong Kong Bankers Fear for Their Careers’ that: “Xi, for one, doesn’t see bankers offering much value. Six of the 13 new members of the Politburo have backgrounds in science and tech. He Lifeng, widely tipped as the next economic tsar, is not a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body. For decades, financiers in Hong Kong have been China’s biggest cheerleaders and its bridge to developed nations. They advocated for economic growth and argued for a better relationship between the two superpowers when no one else was. Even they’re losing faith in Xi’s China.”
Indeed, Leland Miller of the China Beige Book notes despite screenshots(!) about Covid-Zero being zeroed (as fresh lockdowns hit Shanghai and the world’s largest iPhone factory), past high GDP growth is not coming back – for ideological reasons. “It is over because the Chinese government has identified a continuation of this economic growth model as a vulnerability to CCP rule,” he states. They know the model, which they actually borrowed or co-opted from the West, no longer works; they fear what happens if they add yet more debt, or try outright QE, or monetisation. The result is the structural growth slump we now all see, and few saw coming.
It is true that Soviet economies, and China pre-reform, had soft budget constraints, monetised debts, and repressed inflation. However, today’s China reads history and Marx carefully. Contrary to common misperception, Marx was opposed to the inflation of fiat currency as well as the stupidity and revolution-inducing inequality of “fictitious capital”, preferring the gold standard. Lenin ran dual currency systems in the USSR, one gold backed, one fiat, with dual circulation (external, internal): the gold one won out as long as Lenin was around.
China doesn’t want to see more financialisation or higher house prices. It doesn’t want to see higher equities for equities’ sake. It doesn’t want to see lower bond yields for bonds’ sake. It won’t be able to see a stronger CNY. The old Party paradigm is returning, much as markets refuse to accept it.
The Social Democrat party is starting to end…
…and Germans look like a bunch of pivots regarding a shift towards China.
Despite our new geopolitical era, Berlin still wants to do more trade with Beijing. Chancellor Scholz, now in China, not only ignored an open letter from 186 Chinese intellectuals and dissidents asking him not to go, but has stressed he is looking to “collaborate” wherever possible. There was a waiting list of 100 top German firms wanting to tag along – a dozen did. In the eyes of critics, including the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, this makes Germany look like a particularly stupid dinosaur gawping up at a falling meteor and wondering if it wants to be friends.
Germany’s problem is not just what is happening in China, which it takes a “global bank” view of, but what is happening in an EU looking at this latest mercantilism with very mixed feelings after Berlin’s self-serving energy-price subsidies and relative lack of action re: Ukraine.
Moreover, the US selling Germany LNG and protecting it is watching too. Do you think there might be more or less desire to pull German industrial supply chains into the cheap-energy US economy now? Or to prevent German capital stock in China exporting back to the US? USTR Tai just made an offer to the EU to join them in green industrial policy, subsidies, and presumably future tariffs against China. Say no and see what happens. And meanwhile the Fed is ensuring global demand for German goods tanks – just as the Germans don’t have any of their own tanks.
The Social Democrat Party paradigm is over, much as it refuses to accept it.
The Twitter party is ending…
…and the latest headline in a never-ending sequence from this bunch of pivots is that we’ll get an edit button – and half of all jobs there are to go. Hey! That means lower US rates, right?!
END
OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC
This is how oil is transferred from Russia to the USA
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)
SDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 09:30 PM
I describe the roundtrip process in which Russian oil refined in Italy makes its way to to the US. It’s a real hoot…
With an upfront ad, that is a free WSJ video link.
The Lukoil Connection
Image composite from WSJ video
Sanction Avoidance Process
US sanctions are on crude oil, not refined products.
Lukoil, Russia’s second largest oil and gas company was not sanctioned by the US.
Lukoil’s refinery in Sicily is the second largest in Italy and fifth largest in Europe.
A Lukoil refinery in Italy once processed crude from multiple countries. Now it inputs are 93 percent from Russia.
After refining, the country of origin is Italy, not Russia. This is due to longstanding practice of changing the country of origin to where oil is refined.
The refined product then makes its way to Exxon and Lukoil plants in New Jersey and Texas.
Lukoil still has a gas station presence in the US and it distributes products to eleven states.
Lukoil Stations in 11 US States
Image composite from WSJ video
Note: Most of the 230 Lukoil gas stations in the US are owned by individual American franchisees, not the oil giant itself.
Understanding the Process
The US has sanction exclusions for oil “substantially transformed into a foreign-made product.”
US refiners cannot process Russian crude, but Italian refiners can, then distribute the product here.
In return, US can send its refined products to the EU, completing the round trip!
Lukoil is 6th largest refiner in Europe. It went from processing 30% Russian oil to 93%. That’s a pretty big sieve even if amounts to US are small.
Conveniently timed for the US election, European bans on Lukoil do not come into play until December 5.
Unless the EU backs down, this could lead to another surge in the price of gasoline in December.
Meanwhile, In eleven US states, people are filling up their tanks in part with Russian oil products via the above convoluted means.
The US Treasury department refused to comment on this process. Gee, I wonder why.
Biden says this is all Putin’s fault, while traipsing the globe begging Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for more oil.
Finally, after Biden told both OPEC and the US oil industry of its intent to kill the industry, the president now threatens both the US and Saudi produces with tax hikes and unspecified consequences.
An article published on the blog of international Arabic news television channel Al Arabiya on Thursday claims that an Iran state-linked Telegram channel has posted a video purportedly showing a simulated attack on Saudi Arabia.
Al Arabiya says the video was posted by an IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel with over 350,000 subscribers, and shows a simulated drone attack against Saudi Arabia national oil company, Saudi Aramco’s, oil facilities.
On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia had shared intelligence with Washington warning of an imminent attack from Iran against the Kingdom. Iran has rubbished these claims, terming reports of Iranian threats against Saudi Arabia as “baseless accusations.”
If true, the alleged imminent attacks have a recent precedent.
Three years ago, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis launched a drone attack on Aramco oil facilities in Eastern Saudi Arabia, cutting Saudi oil production in half and taking off a good 5% of global supply off the market. The claims add a fresh twist to the Russian war on Ukraine considering that Russia has been using Iranian drones in Ukraine. Just a day ago, CNN reported that Iran is getting ready to send ~1,000 additional weapons, including more attack drones and surface-to-surface short range ballistic missiles, to Russia.
The new alleged intelligence of a potential Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities comes as the U.S. is in the middle of a heated debate about defense provisions for Saudi Arabia. Earlier in October, Democrats were calling for the suspension of transfers of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia, as relations continued to sour.
Shortly afterwards, U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, lambasting Saudi Arabia and the cartel for taking sides with Russia. Biden vowed to “consult with Congress” on ways to “reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices,” bringing the specter of the NOPEC bill, once again, to the forefront.
END
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.9757 DOWN 0.0077 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED
USA/ YEN 148.28 UP 0.328 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.1242 DOWN 0.01413
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.56 PTS OR 0.19%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 487.68 POINTS OR 3.08%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.77% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 487.08 PTS OR 3.08%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.56 PTS OR 0.19%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.77%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1617.45
silver:$18.88
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 112.89 DOWN 1.64 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.3018
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.3298
TURKISH LIRA: 18.62 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.246
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 4.145% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.157 UP 3 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 112.65 UP 1.45 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 18.10 PTS OR 0.25%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 151,34 POINTS OR 1.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 45.87 PTS OR 0.73%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 129.30 OR 1.62%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 174.90 PTS OR 0.77%
WTI Oil price 88.73 12: EST
Brent Oil: 95.22 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 62.07DOWN 0 AND 27/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.337
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.4245
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.97598 DOWN .0054 OR 54 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1169 DOWN .02148 or 215 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.5275%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.237 UP 346//YEN DOWN 35 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3729 UP 0.0013 (CDN dollar, DOWN 13 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 88.10
Brent OIL: 94.62
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 4.134%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 4.162%
USA dollar index:112.77 UP 1.54 CENTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.62
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 62.10 DOWN 0 AND 30/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 146.51 PTS OR 0.46 %
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 215.74 PTS OR 1.98%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.22 DOWN 0.64 PTS (02.47)%
GLD: $151.81 DOWN 0.58 OR 0.38%
SLV/ $17.94 UP $0.21 OR 1.18%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
No Relief From Powell’s Hawkish Hangover: Tech Wrecks, VIX Vexed, Yield Curve Crushed
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 04:01 PM
The day started with a hangover from Powell’s rug-pull; then the Bank of England hiked rates as expected, warned of a longer recession, and told the market its expectations were too hawkish; Challenger printed the highest number of job cuts since the pandemic lockdowns…
…then Services surveys showed the economic situation in the US is growing uglier at the same as unit labor costs grew at the fastest pace in over 40 years.
The result was stocks (mostly tech) and bonds lower in price, the dollar stronger, gold weaker, and Fed terminal rate expectations higher-er (to 5.20% in June 2023), as subsequent rate-cut expectations hawkishly declined (rates ‘higher for longer’ just as Powell wanted)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the day, The Dow and Small Caps desperately tried to stay unch, the S&P lost further ground, and Nasdaq was monkeyhammered (down 2%). Things traded sideways for much of the afternoon until the last 15-20 mins when everything went pear-shaped and puked…
The Nasdaq is down over 6% from the highs yesterday right before Powell started speaking (that’s over $800 billion in market cap)…
VIX closed lower today despite equity weakness…
…as hedges were monetized?…
As SpotGamma noted earlier, Powell seemingly didn’t give traders a reason to buy stock yesterday, but didn’t do enough to bring new levels of fear – there wasn’t enough hawkishness to lead traders to “pay up” for puts, as is clear from the fact that the S&P’s vol skew plunged to new record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries extended their (price) losses today with the short-end dramatically underperforming (2Y +8bps, 30Y +1bps). We do note that bonds were bid during the US session however (until the EU close), having dumped overnight (during the EU session as Japan was closed)…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yields at their highest since 2007
Source: Bloomberg
The 2s10s curve hit its most inverted level since 1982…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended its surge off the dovish lows from yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
As cable was pounded lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold extended yesterday’s losses today (ending down another 1%) but was bid during the US session…
Oil prices extended yesterday’s losses with WTI back down to $88…
And NatGas prices tumbled even more…
Finally, now that Powell has removed the hope once again, stocks have a long way to catch down to bonds’ reality…
Source: Bloomberg
And next week is chock-full of event risk with elections and CPI… and this should send a shiver of fear up market participants’ backs…
Source: Bloomberg
Something bad is going in the market’s pipes – as one wizened old credit trader remarked to us: “The thing about trying to break the economy is that you always break the market first…”
I) / LATE MORNING// TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC
end
ii) USA DATA/
The Fed is using stale dated data on USA rents. USA rents have tumbled themost on record as the uSA economy craters
(zerohedge)
Don’t Tell Powell, But US Rents Just Tumbled The Most On Record As Economy Craters
WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 06:00 PM
There was a remarkable moment during today’s Jay Powell post-FOMC presser, which revealed once again just how out of touch the Fed is when it comes to correctly evaluating the broader economy. Asked about the ongoing devastation in the housing market in general, and rent inflation in particular, Powell’s response was the following:
*POWELL: POINT AT WHICH RENT INFLATION SLOWS IS STILL FAR AWAY
*POWELL: AT SOME POINT YOU’LL SEE RENTS COMING DOW
Here, Powell is doing two things; i) he is referring to the latest shelter/OER (owner equivalent rent) inflation data as reported by the CPI and which is indeed soaring…
… and ii) is dead wrong by making the exact same mistake that so many economists made last year when they did not realize just how high rent inflation will soar as it tracks real-time rental metrics, something we first explained last summer in “”What Rental Hyperinflation Looks Like: “Soaring Prices. Competition. Desperation“, when we showed – without a shadow of a doubt – why inflation was not transitory (we now know that was the correct interpretation).
What about the actual state of rents? For the answer we go to the latest monthly report from Apartment List which we have used consistently since early 2021, and where we find something stunning: rents just tumbled by the most on record!
As the AL blog writes in its latest monthly note, “the national index fell by 0.7 percent over the course of October, marking the second straight month-over-month decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017.”
More details:
These past two months have marked a rapid cooldown in the market, but the timing of that cooldown is consistent with a seasonal trend that was typical in pre-pandemic years. Going forward it is likely that rents will continue falling in the coming months as we enter the winter slow season for the rental market.
Despite the monthly decline, rent growth over the course of this year continues to outpace the pre-pandemic trend, even as it has slowed significantly from last year’s peaks. So far in 2022 rents are up by a total of 5.9 percent, compared to a record 18 percent at this point in 2021. Year-over-year growth has decelerated rapidly since the start of the year, but it’s still likely that 2022 will end up being the second fastest year of rent growth since the start of our estimates.
The cooldown in rent growth is being mirrored by continued easing on the supply side of the market. Our vacancy index now stands at 5.5 percent, after a full year of gradual increases from a low of 4.1 percent last fall. In the past two months, this easing of the vacancy rate has picked up steam again, after plateauing a bit over the summer. That said, today’s vacancy rate remains below the pre-pandemic norm.
The recent slowdown has been geographically widespread. Rents decreased this month in 89 of the nation’s 100 largest cities in October. Boise, ID – one of the first rental markets to explode in the early phases of the pandemic – saw the sharpest rent decline among the nation’s 100 largest cities this month (-3.5 percent). At the metro level, we are continuing to see an ongoing cooldown in many of the recently booming Sun Belt markets. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, and Riverside have all seen rent growth of more than 30 percent since March 2020, but none of these metros has seen rents increase by more than 2 percent over the past twelve months.
Summarizing the above, Apartment List writes that “the national median rent increased by a record-setting 17.6 percent over the course of 2021. This rapid growth in rent prices is a key contributor to overall inflation, which is currently rising at its fastest pace in 40 years.” Furthermore, now that virtually all economists – not just this website – refer to the Apartment list index, the consultance writes that “with inflation top-of-mind for policymakers and everyday Americans alike, Apartment List rent index is particularly relevant, since movements in market rents lead movements in average rents paid. As a result, our index can signal what is likely ahead for the housing component of the official inflation estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
Thankfully, the Apartment List authords write, for the country’s renters, the national rent index has shown month-over-month growth decelerating quickly in recent months. “In fact, for the past two months, our index has actually been declining.”
What does this mean for the CPI’s OER and, eventually, the Fed which continues to just watch this badly lagging index while ignoring real-time indicators? Here is the answer:
Translation: we are not only two months away from rents not only sliding a record-tying 4 months in a row, but we are also two months away from rent inflation turning flat (or negative) on the year. And the paradox: in two months is precisely when the (6-9 month delayed) OER inflation will peak and the Fed will be hiking with gusto and signaling that the market the terminal rate is 5% or more. This will happen just as the economy goes into freefall. A few months (or weeks) later the Fed will finally be scrambling to undo the biggest mistake it has ever done by pushing the US economy into a quasi-depression. Unfortunately, that particular U-turn won’t have a happy ending.
end
USA productivity growth barely rebounded but labour costs soar by the most in 40 years/ This will have a pround effect on CPI
(zerohedge)
US Unit Labor Costs Soar By Most In 40 Years Amid Dismal Productivity
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 08:43 AM
US Productivity growth barely rebounded in Q3 (+0.3% QoQ vs -4.1% QoQ in Q2), but this was slower than the 0.5% QoQ expected, after two quarters of huge weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, US Productivity is down for the 3rd straight quarter (and 4th quarter of the last 5)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the mirror image of productivity, unit labor costs rose 3.5% QoQ (a notable slowing from the 8.9% QoQ growth in Q2). This was the 6th quarter in a row of rising unit labor costs (but was less than the +4.0% QoQ expected)…
However, on a YoY basis, that is the fastest growth since Q3 1982…
Source: Bloomberg
Simply put, we can’t have job growth and solid productivity when you make up numbers all the time.
end
Services in the USA is 70% of GDP. Latest report not good. Also export orders collapse and this is no doubt due to the higher dollar
(zerohedge)
US Services Surveys “Paint A Concerning Picture” Into Year-End, Export Orders Collapse
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 10:07 AM
Following the disappointing drops in US Manufacturing surveys, this morning’s US Services surveys were also expected to show declines.
S&P Global’s Services PMI final print for October was 47.8 (better than the flash print of 46.6 but lower than September’s 49.3). This is the 4th straight month of contraction according to this signal.
ISM Services fell from 56.7 to 54.4 in October (worse then the 55.3 expected). This is the weakest print since May 2020.
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of the Services PMI print, new export orders collapsed and employment contracted…
Source: Bloomberg
Anthony Nieves, ISM Chair warned:
“Growth continues at a slower rate for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 153 months. The sector had a pullback in growth for the second consecutive month in October due to decreases in business activity, new orders and employment.”
Four out of seven US sectors monitored by S&P Global PMI data recorded lower business activity during October with Financials the worst-performing sector for the fifth month in a row…
“Service sector firms faced a challenging start to the final quarter of 2022, as a renewed contraction in new business dragged output down further. Demand conditions were hampered by tighter financial conditions and elevated rates of inflation, leading to reports of postponements and the delayed placement of orders as customers assess their spending.
“Subdued demand and weaker confidence in the outlook for output led to a near-stagnation in employment. Reports of the non-replacement of voluntary leavers brought signs that firms were evaluating costs and future demand more closely before advertising vacancies and expanding staffing levels.
“Nonetheless, momentum in previously soaring inflation slowed again. Hikes in costs softened, as service providers and manufacturers saw slower upticks in supplier and input prices. Meanwhile, private sector firms sought to boost demand through a slower increase in selling prices. Although softening, further elevated rises in prices paid by consumers present obstacles to firms in an already challenging demand environment and paint a concerning picture as we head towards the end of the year.“
Finally, The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 48.2 in October, down from 49.5 in September.
Not a pretty picture for US economic growth in Q4.
end
U.S. trade deficit jumps to three-month high as strong dollar dents exports
Nov. 3, 2022 at 8:58 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Exports recede in September from record high
The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit jumped almost 12% in September to a three-month high of $73.3 billion, as a falling oil prices and a strong dollar dented U.S. exports.
The deficit expanded from $65.7 billion in August, which was the smallest gap in a year and a half.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a $72.3 billion shortfall.
Exports dropped 1.1% in to $258 billion from a record $260.8 billion in the prior month. Imports rose 1.5% to $331.3 billion.
Key details: Exports of U.S. industrial supplies, oil, food, and soybeans all declined. Semiconductor exports rose.
The U.S. imported more cell phones, drugs, computer chips and aircraft.
Big picture: The trade deficit has fallen sharply from a record high earlier in the year, giving a boost to gross domestic product in the third quarter. Yet the U.S. is still on track to post another record trade gap in 2022.
Both imports and exports could slow in the months ahead, but for different reasons. The U.S. economy is expected to get weaker and reduce demand for imports. The strong dollar has also made American exports more expensive for foreign customers.
-END-
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
PORTLAND
Portland is the highest homeless city in the uSA. The mayor of the city calls the situation a catastophe
With the homelessness crisis cited among their top concerns, Oregon voters are taking note of Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler’s declaration of a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the state’s largest city.
Oregon has among the highest homeless populations in the nation per capita. According to DHM Research, 9 of 10 voters statewide identify homelessness as a “very big problem” as Election Day draws near.
In the Portland metropolitan area alone, an estimated 6,000 people are experiencing homelessness, according to Multnomah County’s 2022 point-in-time count, an annual census of the unhoused.
“The magnitude and the depth of the homeless crisis in our city is nothing short of a humanitarian catastrophe,” Wheeler said in an Oct. 26 city council meeting.
Portland Commissioner Dan Ryan described homelessness as the city’s “No. 1 problem” and painted a bleak picture of its impact during the meeting
“It is inhumane to watch the homeless suffer,” Ryan said. “It is also irresponsible to not to address the safety concerns of neighbors and business owners who are deeply impacted by the consequences of untreated behavioral and mental health issues and drug addiction.”
He described disturbing trends in the City of Roses.
“Declining enrollment in Portland Public Schools means families are moving away,” Ryan explained.
Population growth is flat.
“People are not choosing Portland as their home as often as they used to,” Ryan said.
“Portlanders report they don’t feel safe allowing their children to access our parks. Elders don’t feel safe strolling along the riverfront or simply walking to the local grocery store.”
“Portland businesses with a long history in the city have closed because their employees don’t feel safe doing their jobs, walking to lunch, or commuting on public transportation.”
“Our county, state, and region cannot move forward without addressing this issue.”
At the meeting, Wheeler and Ryan proposed five “resolutions” to try to reduce homelessness.
The first involves building 20,000 housing units by 2023. The city currently has a five-year waitlist for people to get into affordable housing.
A proposed workforce program aims to “find non-standard” paid work for unhoused people—work that better fits their needs so that they can sustain those jobs.
Their plan will also ban unsanctioned camping, but increase access to other camping options with mental health and sanitary services. Reports indicate that the first camp would not open for 18 months.
Another resolution entails working with the local district attorney to create a “diversion program” that gives people who are homeless and cited for low-level offenses “more opportunity to address their legal issues and get them resolved.”
Wheeler says the city will rework its budget to prioritize affordable housing and connect the homeless with mental health, sanitary, and substance abuse recovery services.
The cost to taxpayers was not discussed.
The council will work to refine the proposals before voting on them on Nov. 3.
Wheeler acknowledged that previous government “solutions” have sometimes exacerbated the problem.
Just last month, a group of Portlanders filed suit against the city, claiming that tents were blocking the sidewalks in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Weeks later, the lawyers for the suit learned that Multnomah County’s Joint Office of Homeless Services had distributed 6,550 tents and 27,000 tarps to the homeless in 2021.
The lawyers argued those very same tents could be the ones blocking the sidewalks.
“The city has been trying to address ADA issues and the recent lawsuit makes it clear that we have not done enough,” Wheeler said. “These are important concerns and ones that we need to address as a city.”
In May, Wheeler banned camping on the sides of “high-crash” roadways after learning that 19 of 27 pedestrians killed by cars in Portland last year were homeless. People in at least 10 encampments were given 72 hours to leave.
“Nearly 800 unsanctioned encampments spread out over the 146 square miles of the City of Portland,” Wheeler said. “Something needs to change.“
But many Portlanders have lost faith in city leaders.
In a recent poll conducted by The Oregonian, nearly 75 percent of Portland voters said the city is “on the wrong track.”
And 81 percent believe the 2020 George Floyd protests and more than 100 days of unchecked riots, even as Wheeler announced the defunding of police by $12 million, harmed the city.
Still, Wheeler called on other Oregon officials to join him and “declare a statewide emergency.”
Elon Musk to fire half of Twitter employees on Friday
(zerohedge)
Elon Musk To Fire Half Of Twitter On Friday
WEDNESDAY, NOV 02, 2022 – 08:32 PM
Taking a page out of Thanos’ playbook (or is that Zorg), in two days Elon Musk will finally do what he has repeatedly warned he would do: unleash mass layoffs at the company he just acquired.
According to Bloomberg, the world’s richest man will eliminate 3,700 jobs at Twitter – roughly half of the company’s entire workforce – in a bid to drive down costs following his $44 billion acquisition; Musk will inform affected staffers Friday, said the Bloomberg sources. Oh, and all those masked snowflakes who previously raged against the previous management’s “draconian” demand to come back to the office, you’re out of luck too: Musk intends to reverse the company’s existing work-from-anywhere policy asking what few employees remain to report to offices.
Musk and a team of advisers have been weighing a range of scenarios for job cuts and other policy changes at San Francisco-based Twitter, the people said, adding that the terms of the headcount reduction could still change. In one scenario being considered, laid off workers will be offered 60 days’ worth of severance pay, two of the people said.
With the “liberal and tolerant” left putting Musk under the financial deplatforming squeeze, as various woke advertisers are pressured by vocal ultra-left radicals to drop Twitter unless the social media platform is fully MSNBC’ed…
… which will leave advertisers showing their ads to a handful of socialist-preapproved media outlets catering to those whose entire income comes from the government, who pay zero taxes, and can’t really afford to buy anything, Musk is under pressure to find ways to slash costs of a business for which he overpaid.
To be sure, the mass exodus won’t come as a surprise: Twitter employees have been bracing for layoffs ever since Musk took over last Thursday and fired the top executive team, including CEO Parag Agrawal and top censor, Vijaya Gadde. Over the weekend, a few employees with director and vice president jobs were cut, while other leaders were asked to make lists of employees on their teams who can be cut, Bloomberg reported, adding that senior personnel on the product teams were asked to target a 50% reduction in headcount. Engineers and director-level staff from Tesla reviewed the lists.
Layoff lists were drawn up and ranked based on individuals’ contributions to Twitter’s code during their time at the company. The assessment was made by both Tesla personnel and Twitter managers.
END
Layoffs galore as the economy is faltering. Dec jobs report with the huge firing of Twitter employees and Stripe will be awful
(zerohedge)
Stripe Firing 14% Of Employees To Slash Costs During The Recession
THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 09:34 AM
With Twitter set to Thanos half its employees tomorrow, the axe is now swinging hard across Silicon Valley, where moments ago Bloomberg reported that one of the world’s most valuable startups, Stripe, will cut 14% of its entire workforce, some 1000 jobs returning headcount to the almost 7,000 total from February, as the company seeks to slash costs during the coming recession. The news was shared with the rest of the company in an email from co-founders Patrick and John Collison who vowed to trim expenses more broadly as they prepare for “leaner times.”
“We were much too optimistic about the internet economy’s near-term growth in 2022 and 2023 and underestimated both the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown,” the Collison brothers said in the email. “We grew operating costs too quickly. Buoyed by the success we’re seeing in some of our new product areas, we allowed coordination costs to grow and operational inefficiencies to seep in.”
The Collisons said the headcount changes wouldn’t evenly impact the business, noting that the recruiting business would be disproportionately impacted since the company plans to hire fewer people next year. Departing employees will receive at least 14 weeks of severance, and the brothers vowed to pay annual bonuses and unused paid time off for all workers affected by the cuts.
Stripe and its money-losing publicly traded peers have seen their valuations crater as the growth in online spending slowed in the aftermath of the pandemic, just as supply-chain disruptions and once-in-a-generation inflation also hurt activity. According to Bloomberg, the company in July told staffers that an internal valuation for the company dropped to about $74 billion, compared to the $95 billion it received in its most recent fundraising.
“Stripe is not a discretionary service that customers turn off if budget is squeezed,” the Collisons said. “However, we do need to match the pace of our investments with the realities around us. Doing right by our users and our shareholders (including you) means embracing reality as it is.”
Translation: here’s a pink slip, consider it for the “greater good”. As for the November and December payrolls report, it will take some seriously seasonal adjustment magic to avoid a -200K (or worse) print.
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH
SWAMP STORIES
My goodness: this great cardiologist faces his medical board ready to strip him of his license to practice for providing “misinformation” on the injuries to the vaccines
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Medical Board Moves To Strip Dr. Peter McCullough Of Certifications
A medical board has moved to strip top cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough of his certifications in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease, claiming that he provided misleading medical information to the public about COVID-19 vaccines.
The American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) informed McCullough of the action in a recent letter.
The board stated that McCullough’s statements questioning COVID-19 vaccination for healthy people younger than the age of 50 and pointing out that Americans have died after getting a COVID-19 vaccine triggered a review, which led to a recommendation that McCullough’s board certifications be revoked.
The ABIM’s Credentials and Certification Committee found that McCullough had “provided false or inaccurate medical information to the public,” the letter states.
“By casting doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines with such seemingly authoritative statements, made in various official forums and widely reported in various media, your statements pose serious concerns for patient safety,” it reads. “Moreover, they are inimical to the ethics and professionalism standards for board certification.”
McCullough was given until Nov. 18 to appeal.
If he appeals, the matter will be considered by a panel designated by the ABIM’s Board of Directors and at least one hearing would be held. The panel could accept the recommendation, rescind it, or impose an alternative punishment.
McCullough told The Epoch Times in an email that he’ll appeal.
Allegations
In a May notice of potential disciplinary measures, the board said it had learned that McCullough made “numerous widely reported and disseminated public statements about the purported dangers of, or lack of justification for, Covid-19 vaccines.”
As an example, the board cites McCullough’s March 10, 2021, testimony before a Texas Senate panel in which he said that people who have recovered from COVID-19 have “complete and durable immunity” and that there was no rationale for vaccinating such a person.
McCullough also said at the time that there was “no scientific rationale” for people who are healthy and younger than 50 to receive one of the vaccines.
In a declaration in a court case, meanwhile, McCullough said that more than 18,000 COVID-19 vaccine deaths had been submitted to the U.S.-run Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and that the number of reported deaths was far above that of all other vaccines combined.
ABIM says the statements might violate the board’s policy on false or inaccurate medical information, which states that “providing false or inaccurate information to patients or the public is unprofessional and unethical” and could lead to sanctions.
To back up his statements on COVID-19 vaccination, for instance, McCullough referenced data that shows people younger than 50 have a minuscule risk of death after contracting the illness, particularly if they don’t have serious underlying medical conditions.
He also noted the availability of COVID-19 treatments, that the COVID-19 vaccine spike protein has been linked to problems such as blood clotting, and that the vaccines have provided poor protection against infection and no protection against transmission.
McCullough also referenced researchthatfound people who have natural immunity—a group excluded from the vaccines’ clinical trials—are at higher risk of side effects from the vaccines and have better protection than the vaccinated.
He said that based on his medical opinion, drawing from his medical education, clinical experience, and review of scientific information, people who have recovered from COVID-19 “have robust and durable immunity against the severe outcomes of adjudicated COVID-19 hospitalization and death recognizing that the Omicron variant has broken through natural immunity.”
He also said that there “is no medical necessity or clinical indication for vaccination of a COVID-19 recovered patient since they have already had the condition for which the vaccines are indicated to prevent” and that the scientific evidence doesn’t support vaccinating people younger than the age of 50.
END
San Francisco DA Won’t Release Police Bodycam Video, 911 Calls From Paul Pelosi Attack
San Francisco’s top prosecutor confirmed Wednesday her office will not release police body camera footage or 911 calls from the alleged Paul Pelosi attack late last week.
Authorities said that David DePape, 42, allegedly broke into the San Francisco home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her husband Paul during the early morning hours of Oct. 28, according to court documents, before he allegedly struck Pelosi with a hammer. No security camera footage, police body camera footage, or 911 calls have been released.
When pressed about releasing more evidence in the case, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins told NBC News that her office will not.
“Are you planning to release the 911 call or any body camera video [from the Paul Pelosi attack]?” asked NBC’s Kristen Welker on Wednesday.
“Not at this time,” replied Jenkins. “We’re going to find out today the speed at which this case will proceed once he’s arraigned. We’ll make decisions about what evidence gets played in court, during any hearings, or during the trial,” Jenkins added.
The San Francisco Police Department denied a public records request from The Epoch Times for body camera footage from the officers who responded to the Pelosi home, stating that “disclosure of information may endanger successful completion of the investigation.”
Requests for the 911 call and the police incident report are pending.
According to court documents, prosecutors said that DePape allegedly told investigators that he was on a “suicide mission” and sought to break Speaker Pelosi’s kneecaps, although she was not there at the time of the attack. DePape pleaded not guilty in a state court on Tuesday.
“I’m sick of the insane … level of lies coming out of Washington, D.C. I came here to have a little chat with his wife,” DePape also allegedly told officials, adding, “I didn’t really want to hurt him, but you know this was a suicide mission. I’m not going to stand here and do nothing even if it cost me my life,” according to the documents.
The U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) also wrote on Nov. 2 that it has cameras at the Pelosi home but said they weren’t being monitored when DePape entered the residence. The agency said cameras aren’t “actively monitored” unless Nancy Pelosi is at home.
Authorities at the USCP’s Command Center didn’t see anything unusual at the Pelosi home until they noticed police activity.
While Democrat officials have claimed that DePape was a right-wing radical, his neighbors and the mother of his children painted a different picture. On Wednesday evening, President Joe Biden, in a midterm stump speech, tied alleged threats to U.S. institutions to the attack targeting Pelosi’s longtime husband.
Independent Michael Shellenberger wrote that he went to the alleged former home of DePape in Berkeley, a city located near San Francisco that has long been a center of left-wing activism.
“And, as I discovered yesterday, DePape lived with a notorious local nudist in a Berkeley home, complete with a Black Lives Matter sign in the window and an LGBT rainbow flag, emblazoned with a marijuana symbol, hanging from a tree. A closer look reveals the characteristics of a homeless encampment,” he wrote in a Substack article.
China Reopening Rumors Dispelled as Beijing Confirms Zero Covid Policy China’s National Health Commission: … We must be prudent and pay close attention to the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, unswervingly adhere to the general strategy of “foreign import, internal rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, resolutely implement the “four early” requirements, and strive to minimize Scope, shortest time, and lowest cost to control sudden outbreaks… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-reopening-rumors-dispelled-beijing-confirms-zero-covid-policy
Tesla closes its first showroom in China in retail strategy shift – sources Electric vehicle giant Tesla has closed what had been its flagship showroom in China, a move sources described as one aimed at paring retail costs in its second-largest market. Tesla confirmed the closure of the showroom in Beijing’s upscale downtown shopping centre Parkview Green to Reuters on Wednesday. It said it had relocated the store to another mall called Raffles City… https://t.co/uB87fN2oa7
Perceived Fed conduit @NickTimiraos yesterday morning: The Fed is trying to tighten financial conditions and keep them tight. Talk about a Fed “pivot” can be confusing because a slowdown in the pace of hiking doesn’t necessarily mean an earlier end to hikes given the need to keep financial conditions tight…Several analysts have argued that the one true pivot—the capital P pivot—comes when the Fed shifts away from focusing solely on inflation to focusing on balancing risks on both sides of the mandate. Market pricing suggests this is still many months away… A pivot is when I get off the freeway. What people are talking about is getting out of the carpool lane, turning on the turn signal, and getting over a couple of lanes so you maybe don’t completely miss your exit (or overshoot it by miles and miles). You’re still on the freeway.
ESZs went flat during early Asian trading; rallied for an hour and then went flat again. After China closed, ESZs sank. ESZs and stocks declined modestly when Europe opened. Eventually ESZs rallied to a daily high of 3881.50 at 4:26 ET. After a slow roll over, ESZs and stocks retreated until the US repo market opened at 7 ET. After rallying moderately for an hour, ESZs rolled over. They sank on the unexpectedly ‘hot’ October ADP Employment Change.
ESZs and stocks bottomed near 10:30 ET. After a modest rebound, ESZs and stocks rolled over and then went inert. Traders went on Fed Watch; ESZs treaded water until they broke to a new low at 12:16 ET. ESZs bottomed at 12:38 ET (3833.00). The Fed Day Rally commenced. ESZs hit 3858.25 by 13:51 ET.
Oil and gasoline soared on lower US inventories and fear that Iran would strike Saudi Arabia.
As expected, the Fed hiked its funds rate 75bps to 3.75% – 4.00%, and Interest on Reserves 75bps to 3.9%. The Fed stated, “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
ESZs soared to 3899.50 in minutes. Bulls proclaimed the pivot is imminent. The usual suspects proclaimed that the Fed would now only hike rates by 50bps in December.
As we have repeatedly emphasized, the market has expected a 50bp rate hike in December for months. CNBC’s Steve Liesman warned bulls that he sees no big change by the Fed and the markets have been pricing a 50bp rate hike for December for months. Steve sees, at best, a modestly lower pace of rate hikes in 2023 with the Fed pausing in the spring – like the market has been forecasting for months.
ESZs lost 27 handles and USZs lost 20/32 by 14:17 ET as more people realized little had changed. ESZs rallied to a new high into Powell’s presser; USZs retreated.
FOMC Communique Highlights Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of MBS and Treasuries as planned Jobs gains remain robust, unemployment remains low Inflation remains elevated; it is attentive to inflation risks Fed expects ongoing rate hikes to be ‘sufficiently restrictive’
Powell Press Conference HighlightsStrongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2% goalPrice stability is the bedrock of the economyWill significantly reduce the size of our balance sheetUS economy has slowed significantly from last year’s rapid paceHousing and spending have slowed as has business investmentThe labor market continues to be out of balanceInflation remains well above our 2% goal; Prices pressure remains across a range of services“Restoring price stability will likely require a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”Ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate to return inflation to 2%It will take time for the full effects of monetary policy to impact inflation – that’s why we noted this in the FOMC Communique“At some point…it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases…We still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.”(ESZs sank to 3841)We will stay the course and not prematurely stop rate hikes Powell Q&A HighlightsWe need inflation to come down decisivelyPowell dodged a question about rate hikes for December (50bps of 75bps)Will discuss slowing rate hikes at the Dec 16 FOMC (ESZs soared to 3889.50 from 3841.00)“The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is now much less important than the question of how high to raise rates and how high to keep monetary policy restrictive.”“It is very premature to be thinking about pausing – very premature.”The labor market is overheated; demand exceeds supply; wages are not falling“The risks are asymmetric. If the Fed does too much, it can cut. If it doesn’t tighten enough, then you’re in real trouble.If we do not tighten enough, inflation may become entrenched.” Powell clearly wanted to disabuse the markets of the notion that a pivot is nigh. He emphasized that the market should not be focused on the magnitude of rate hikes but on the duration of the hiking cycle. Powell also appeared to be more concerned about under hiking rates than over hiking rates.
ESZs and USZs tumbled to new lows during Powell’s Q&A was as hawkish as his prepared remarks. When the final hour arrived, ESZs and USZs bounced. Powell’s presser ended near 15:15 ET; ESZs, stocks, and USZs then sank to new lows. The ESZ decline persisted to the close. USZs bounced a tad.
Russian military generals recently had conversations to discuss when and how Russia might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, US Intelligence shows – The New York Times “The fact that senior Russian military leaders were even having the discussions alarmed the Biden administration because it showed how frustrated Russian generals were about their failures on the ground, and suggests that Mr. Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons might not just be words,” the Times reported… https://news.yahoo.com/russian-generals-reportedly-discuss-using-121709202.html
US officials divided over new intelligence suggesting Russian military discussed scenarios for using nuclear weapons – some officials believe the conversations reflected in the document may have been taken out of context, and do not necessarily indicate that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon…https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/us-russia-nuclear-weapon-intelligence/index.html
White House Deletes Tweet Bragging About Bump in Social Security Checks After Fact Checkers Obliterate Narrative – The White House tweeted that “seniors are getting the biggest increase in their Social Security checks in 10 years through President Biden’s leadership.” Twitter added a fact check to the tweet, noting that while Seniors will receive an increase in their social security benefits, it’s “due to the annual cost of living adjustment, which is based on the inflation rate.” CNN’s fact-checker Daniel Dale called the White House’s claim “quite the spin.” “The size of Social Security checks is linked, by law, to inflation. This year’s increase is unusually big because the inflation rate is unusually big.”… https://dailycaller.com/2022/11/02/white-house-fact-checked-social-security-tweet-inflation/
A WH intern that runs The Big Guy’s Twitter thought framing the largest COLA increase in 40 years as a gift from Biden was a good idea. Instead, it focused attention on the biggest inflation in 40 years.
Positive aspects of previous session Huge rally after FOMC Communique was released
Negative aspects of previous session ESZs and USZs tumbled after Powell stated that rate hikes would go higher and for longer than expected
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will bulls promote now? The GOP capture of Congress?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3810.54 Previous session High/Low: 3894.44; 3758.68
Today – Powell has killed the delusional notion that a Fed Pivot is nigh. Bulls must now find another dynamic to hype. Normally the day before an employment report would have muted activity. However, Powell has made it clear that the October Employment Report, barring a disaster, will have no effect on Fed policy in the near term. Powell explicitly stated that the Fed is focused on inflation data for the foreseeable future; and it will take evidence that inflation is decisively under control to foment a pause.
The risk today is that a critical mass of investors and traders that harbored the notion that the Fed Pivot is nigh realize that they are wrong and hurriedly stampede the exits. ESZs are -10.50 at 20:15 ET.
Expected economic data: Sept Trade Balance -$72.3B; Q3 Nonfarm Productivity 0.5%, Unit Labor Costs 4.0%; Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.45m; Oct S&P Global US Services PMI 46.6, Composite PMI 47.3; Oct ISM Services Index 55.3; Sept Factory Orders 0.3%, ex-Trans 0.0%; Sept Durable Goods Orders 0.4%, ex-Trans -0.5%, Nondef ex-Air -0.6%
Expected earnings: CVS 1.99, YUM 1.15, HUM 6.26, TWTR .01, ROK 2.97, CHRW 2.19, MRO 1.17, ALL -1.59, APA 1.86, IR .59, MGM .24
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3916.31 triggers a buy signal
@ElectionWiz: Panic is starting to set in for Democrats… In multiple key states, Democrats are not hitting the Early Vote + VBM numbers they need to counteract an Election Day Red Wave.
@townhallcom: Biden on the Paul Pelosi attack: “He woke him up, he wanted to tie him up…the assailant entered the home, asking ‘where’s Nancy’…the very same words used by the mob when they stormed the United States capitol on January the 6th.” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1587944487858458625
@townhallcom: Biden accuses “extreme MAGA Republicans” of trying to “suppress the right of voters and subvert the electoral system itself…and deciding whether your vote even counts. Instead of waiting until an election is over…they’re starting now.” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1587946464742973440
More of Biden’s acrimonious rhetoric: “Election deniers are on the ballot this year… We can’t take democracy for granted… Make no mistake, democracy is on the ballot… In some cases, we won’t know the winner of an election until a few days after the election.”
@ABC: Biden: “There are candidates running for every level of office in America…who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections that they’re running in. That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented, it’s unlawful, and it’s un-American.” (Hillary & Joe are deniers) https://abcn.ws/3zG6eNj
Biden: Gore ‘was elected president’ June 12, 2013 “This man was elected president of the United States of America,” Biden said at a fundraiser that Gore also attended. “No, no, no. He was elected president of the United States of America. But for the good of the nation, when the bad decision in my view was made, he did the right thing for the nation.”… https://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/06/12/biden-gore-george-w-bush-2000-election/2414933/
GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: President Biden is trying to divide and deflect at a time when America needs to unite—because he can’t talk about his policies that have driven up the cost of living. The American people aren’t buying it.
@jacobkschneider: Easily one of Biden’s worst speeches as president — angry, pointless, and hopelessly out of touch with just about everybody. It’s just pathetic and embarrassing for Biden at this point.
@BuckSexton: This speech is a total disgrace. Don’t vote on policies, the senile president says, vote knowing that “our democracy is in peril.” Democrats failed utterly in every way so now they try absurd, cheap emotional manipulation. Pathetic.
By now, everyone knows that Dems have been employing Orwellian language. Their ‘threat to Democracy’ whining means ‘threat to Democrats’ or ‘threat to usual Dem election fraud.’ Joe reportedly will invoke Jan. 6 in a futile and cynical attempt to induce Americans to forget their top concerns: Crime, inflation, the economy, and illegal immigration. Yes, Virginia, Dems are that desperate!
@RNCResearch: Biden just wrapped up a primetime speech six days before the election. Here are the number of times he mentioned: Border: 0, Crime: 0, Inflation: 0, Supply chain: 0, Gas prices: 0, China: 0, Education: 0, Military: 0, Police: 0, Fentanyl: 0
Tucker Carlson last night: Political realignment is at hand because Democrats failed spectacularly. Biden gave his ‘demented, desperate’ speech from Union Station in DC, which is in shambles.
@SteveGuest: Tucker Carlson: “Standing at this monument to his own failures [Union Station], Biden proceeded to do what he now so commonly does, bark at the rest of us for our moral failures. The guy who showered with his daughter is telling you you’re a bad person.” https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1587959923559768064
The Hill (left leaning): Is a 25th Amendment removal in Joe Biden’s future? We frequently see him, after he has delivered a speech, wander off as if he doesn’t know where he is or where he’s supposed to go. Someone hurries over and takes his arm and points him in the right direction. At times he’s lucid and in control, but at other times he seems baffled and confused… Would Vice President Harris ever take such a step? It strikes me as very unlikely. More likely, I think, would be a full-court press by Democratic leaders to convince Biden not to run for reelection. How successful that effort would be is anyone’s guess. People in mental decline are often the last to concede the fact…So, if Democratic leaders feel Biden isn’t up to running again, they could use the 25th Amendment provision as leverage to get him to agree… Democrats spent four years waving the 25th Amendment flag at Donald Trump, mostly because they didn’t like him or his policies. It was an exercise in futility that further angered and divided the country. But the day may be coming when the country will have to turn to Section 4 of the 25th Amendment for the good of the nation. https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3714038-is-a-25th-amendment-removal-in-joe-bidens-future/
Dems and/or Biden’s handlers are under the delusion that forcing one of the most unpopular POTUS in history and a serial liar that has apparent cognitive impairment to appear regularly during the final days of the Midterm Campaign will benefit Dems.
Just two weeks ago, Dem pollster, Stan Greenberg, warned that Team Biden’s gaslighting and lying were counterproductive. For the past several days, Biden has DAILY issued his routine lies and new lies – because the regime media tolerates and enables Biden’s lies – and have done so for decades. PS – The NY Times called Biden’s lies ‘verbal fumbling’!
@KyleMartinsen_: Joe Biden just claimed he’s “cut the federal DEBT in half!” The national debt is $31 trillion. Fact checkers???https://t.co/lhLp3sbZxW
@NewsBecker: Joe Biden: “In the last 6 months this country has gone through Hell.” Freudian Slip? Biden admits America’s gone through hell under his leadership. https://t.co/4KNUqreC3n
@greg_price11: Biden: “The batteries that we have now, you know, a lightning storm takes out all the electricity in the house. Guess what? You can plug your car into the house and make it light up. Not a joke.. It really is kind of exciting.” https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1587887766775681024
@bonchieredstate: Donald Trump walked down a ramp slowly and the news media spent months speculating he was senile. Yesterday, after a dementia-ridden speech, pictures showed Biden has been receiving an IV and they haven’t said a word about it.
Photo of Biden’s Hand Is Raising Questions President Biden made a series of embarrassing blunders during campaign events in Florida on Tuesday that even The New York Times is writing about… A photo taken by AP photographer Evan Vucci of the president’s hand is raising new questions about Biden’s health… What are they injecting into his hand? Not making a diagnosis here, but those marks on Mr. Biden’s hand do resemble the residua of punctures. Usually blood draws are done from the antecubital (inside of elbow) vein. Intravenous lines are often inserted in the hands. Anything we need to know? https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/11/02/why-new-questions-are-being-raised-about-bidens-health-n2615346 Close up photos: https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1587939274829303812/photo/1
Did the FBI Tamper with the Frame Rate of the Jan 6 Pipe Bomb Footage? In August 2022, we definitively proved the DNC camera footage from the FBI’s September 2021 release should have captured the “money shot” of the pipe bomber taking the bomb out of the bag and planting it near a park bench in front of the DNC building. But for some reason, the FBI censored the tape so that the public could not see the alleged criminal walk back into the camera frame to commit the actual criminal act. Over the past two months, we took a closer look at the DNC surveillance footage the FBI provided to the public. What we found was even more bizarre, and more damning than our initial discovery that the FBI is withholding critical footage of the pipe bomber actually planting the bomb… There are only 16 distinct frames in these 13 seconds, yielding an average frame rate of just 1.2 frames per second. This is so low that it is essentially “stop motion.”… The average industry frame rate for most CCTV security cameras currently in use is about 15 frames per second. Modern security cameras are typically 30 fps and higher-end ones shoot 60 fps footage. Some very old dinosaur security cameras on decades-old systems shoot at around 8 fps… https://www.revolver.news/2022/11/did-the-fbi-tamper-with-jan-6-pipe-bomb-footage-frame-rate/
@ggreenwald: The US corporate press is trying to train Americans to believe the first and most solemn duty of citizenship is instantly accept whatever institutions of authority tell you to believe. No wanting to see evidence, no noting contradictions: just happily recite what you’re told.
Several articles or tweets appeared yesterday that blames Dems’ looming election carnage on ‘messaging’. Obviously, this is the talking point that Dem capos distributed to their crews..
Fox’s Jesse Waters last night said SFPD sources say body-cam footage of Paul Pelosi’s attack is not being released because it shows that Paul opened the door and precious seconds were lost because the cops hesitated in addressing the situation when they entered.
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[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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[…] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]
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[…] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]
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[…] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]
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[…] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]
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[…] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]
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