NOV 1/GOLD CLOSED UP $9.20 TO $1646.60//SILVER CLOSED UP 53 CENTS TO $19.68//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $17.25 TO $948.25//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $32.25 TO $1887.60//ANTI RUSSIAN ALLIANCE FALTERS AS JAPAN DECIDES TO STAY IN THE RUSSIAN SAKHALIN ISLAND PROJECT//IRAN SEIZES FOREIGN VESSEL//SAUDI ARABIA WARNS OF AN IRANIAN ATTACK//BOLSONARO REFUSES TO CONCEDE: SEEMS MASSIVE FRAUD IN THE “GANG DISTRICTS”/USA DATA: JOLTS: JOB OPENINGS SOAR//MANUFACTURING USA SURVEYS INDICATE A HUGE DOWNTREND//VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $9.20 to $1646.60

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $0.53 to $19.68

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1647.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.62

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $20,544 UP 175

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,481 UP 112

Platinum price closing  UP $17.25  AT  $948.25

Palladium price; closing UP $32.35  at $1887.60

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2244/72 DOLLARS UP 22/73 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1434.06 POUNDS PER OZ UP 22.87 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1667.47 EUROS PER OZ UP 10.34 EUROS PER OZ.

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX//NOVEMBER 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,648.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/24/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME IS

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,635.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/31/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/02/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 81
132 C SG AMERICAS 30 14
190 H BMO CAPITAL 43
323 C HSBC 43
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 75
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 38
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 98 169
690 C ABN AMRO 9 6
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 41 11
800 C MAREX SPEC 16 5
880 H CITIGROUP 2
905 C ADM 13


TOTAL: 350 350
MONTH TO DATE: 2,030

JPMORGAN STOPPED  781/1600 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    350 NOTICES FOR 35,000 OZ  or 1.0886 TONNES

total notices so far: 2030 contracts for 203,000 oz (6.314 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 73 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 365000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  84 :  for 420,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $9.20

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 920.57 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 53 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF OF .415 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.308 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1030 CONTRACTS TO 139,157 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.00 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.00)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1032 CONTRACTS.  HUGE SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS COVERED  THEIR SHORT POSITIONS /

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT STRONG SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS ON THE LOWER PRICE. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:    / //  V)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: — 2

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 0 contracts: 0.000 million oz  OR 0.000MILLION OZ PER DAY. (0 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 0 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 0 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1030 WITH OUR  $0.00 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A ZERO SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1030 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.15 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 73  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  365,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3144 CONTRACTS  TO 464,629 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -8  CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY //  ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS BUT MINOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //EXPECT HUGE QUEUE JUMPING BEGINNING ON 2ND DAY NOTICE: (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $4.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 459 OI CONTRACTS 1.427 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2705 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 464,633

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 459 CONTRACTS  WITH 3144 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2705 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 431 CONTRACTS OR 1.2305 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2705) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3144): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 459 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS// CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS WITH THE LOWER PRICE  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ///NEW STANDING FOR NOV 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 33,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 13.673 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

2705 CONTRACTS OR 270,500 OZ OR 8.413 TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2705 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 8.413 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  8.413/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  8.413 TONNES//INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED  1030 CONTRACT OI TO  139,159 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  GAIN OF 1030  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 0  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 1030  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.16MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.00

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 75.72 PTS OR 2.62%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 768.25OR 5.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 91.46 PTS OR 0.33%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.63%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2586 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.2627//    /Oil UP TO 88.33, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.69    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3144  CONTRACTS TO 464,629 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS   COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.00  IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2705 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2705 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 2705  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2705 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 459  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2705 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3136  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.00//WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS,  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG WITH THE LOWER PRICE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (13.673),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 13.673 TONNES/INITIAL

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.00) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES//// SPEC SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A VERY SMALL SIZED TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 459 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A VERY SMALL LOSS  OF 1.3406 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (13.673 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.00 

WE HAD -8  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 459 CONTRACTS OR 45900  OZ OR  1.427 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 199,696//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  204,080/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 1

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 233,455.564oz


Brinks
Malca
JPMorgan

includes
372 kilobars
and 759 
kilobars  









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today350   notice(s)
350,000  OZ
6.314 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)2366 contracts 
236,600 oz
7.359 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2030 notices
203,000
6.314 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:3

i) Out of JPMorgan  197,092.775 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 11,960.180 372 kilobars)

iii) Out of Malca: 24,402.609oz ( 759 kilobars) 

total:  233,455.097 oz

total in tonnes: 23.34 tonnes

Adjustments: 0//    

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 2716 contracts having LOST 1266 contracts.   We had 1600 notices served upon Monday so we gained a whopping 334

or an additional 33400 will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December LOST 4403 contracts UP to 358,108.

JANUARY  gained 2 contracts to stand at 2.

February gained 1960 contacts up to 71,645.

We had 350 notice(s) filed today for 350,000 oz on the first day notice  FOR THE NOV. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  98  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 350 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 169 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2030) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 2716 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 350 x 100 oz per contract equals 439,600 OZ  OR 13.673 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2030) x 100 oz+   (2716)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (350} x 100 oz} which equals 439,600 oz standing OR 13.673  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  13.673 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,996,891.215 OZ   62.11 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,726,208.097 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,331,325,357  OZ (352.45 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,394,882.740 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,334,444 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 290.034 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 1//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,743,491.260 oz



Brinks
Loomis
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Manfra









 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,286,986.070 oz
Loomis

 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)73 CONTRACT(S)  
 (365,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)189 contracts 
(945,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)84 contracts
 (420,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  6 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks 771m048.030 oz

ii) out of Loomis:  80,452.100 oz

iii) Out of CNT: 857,314.520 oz

iv) Out of Delaware 16,667.317 o

v) Out of Manfra  435,439.280 oz

vi_ Out of JPMorgan 580,570.100 oz

Total withdrawals:  2,743,891.262 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 155.309million oz/299.703 million =51.78% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 1

i) Into Loomis: 1,286,986.070 oz

total:  1,286,986.07-  oz

 adjustments: 3

    dealer  to customer

i./ JPMorgan  19,259.300oz

ii) Manfra  33,726.294 oz

customer to dealer

Delaware; 23,439.364 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.711 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.703 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 262 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 7 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 503 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 106,248

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 16 CONTRACTS UP TO 1144 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:73 for 365,000   oz

Comex volumes:53,927// est. volume today// fair   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,548 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  84 x 5,000 oz = 420,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(262) and the number of notices served upon today 73 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 84 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (262)  – number of notices served upon today (73) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,365,000 oz. . (CME CORRECTED OI FOR NOV)

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:51,533// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60.788 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920/57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 920.57 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.308 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Stocks Are Priced For Perfection In An Imperfect World

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 11:40 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Despite all kinds of economic bad news, as of Friday, the Dow Jones was on pace for the best October in history. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, this demonstrates the fact that for now, bad news is good news, and stocks are priced for perfection in an imperfect world.

Over the past month, we saw more air come out of the housing bubblePMI dip deeper into contraction, along with other signs of a deteriorating economy. Even the positive growth GDP print wasn’t really good news. But the markets shrugged it all off. As of Friday, Oct. 28, the Dow was up 14.4% on the month.

Peter called this a bear market correction.

He also noted that the rotation from growth to value stocks continued. This is evidenced by the losses in the NASDAQ.

Investors are moving out of hype and momentum into real value, into real dividends. And why is that happening? That is because interest rates have moved up, and so, we’re no longer pricing stocks based on a fantasy. Plus, we now have a cost of capital. There is an interest rate with which to discount future earnings.”

Peter said he thinks we’re just at the beginning of this rotation. In fact, it could last the rest of this decade. That means the indices heavy with momentum-oriented stocks have a long way to decline.

To show just how elevated markets are, Peter went back to 1995 and found the average price-to-earnings (before taxes) was 14.1. The current ratio is 19.6.

So, in order for the market to return to the normal ratio, we need another 28% decline from here. Not from the highs, but from where we are right now.”

The price-to-sales ratio also indicates an overvalued market.

Peter said the only way you can justify a market this expensive is if interest rates go back down.

The only reason we had such high multiples, whether it is price to earnings or price to sales — it was all a function of 0% interest rates. Well, we don’t have 0% interest rates anymore.”

If interest rates stay where they are, or continue to move higher, which the Fed is promising, the markets have a long way to fall to get back to normal.

But there is no reason why the markets should be priced at a normal valuation given the adverse circumstances that are now taking place. We have the highest inflation in 40 years, maybe the highest inflation ever. The Fed has a monumental task in front of it if it’s actually going to deliver on its promise to bring inflation down to 2%. So, if you believe the Fed – that they’re every bit as resolute in their commitment to bring inflation back down to 2%, and they’re going to do whatever it takes to achieve the goal, then you have to concede that the market is not going to fall to normal valuation, but a below normal valuation.”

Think about it. At times since 1995, these metrics have been lower than average. Why? Because during those times the markets were facing adverse circumstances.

Well, I can’t think of more adverse circumstances than the ones that the markets are operating under right now.”

So, we should see a market getting cheaper compared to those historical averages.

But not only is the market not cheap, not only is it not averagely or fairly valued, but it is still extremely expensive. So, we have a market priced for perfection and we have anything but perfection in the current circumstances.”

Peter said this tells him investors still don’t believe the Fed. Or they believe that the Fed will be able to quickly bring inflation back down to 2%, and then it will be able to return rates back to artificially low levels.

Because without 0% interest rates and QE, there is no way to justify the current valuation of today’s market. But if investors believe that, they are wrong.”

Peter said the Fed isn’t going to get inflation anywhere near 2%. And even if the Fed did manage to pull that off, it wouldn’t be able to return to abnormally low interest rates without inflation quickly spiking again.

Neither of those outcomes is possible. The only way the market could be correct in attributing these high valuations to today’s market is is if I’m right about what happens – that the Fed pivots and gives up the fight against inflation even though inflation never returns to 2%.”

Peter recently said it looks like the Fed has already made a “soft” pivot.

He said even under the environment he envisions, price-to-earnings ratios will still come down.

The only way to justify the current level is if the Fed is able to return to those artificially low interest rates and QE, and inflation goes back down to 2% and stays there. But as I said, that is impossible. So, there is no actual way that you could justify the current valuation of the US market. So, the actual valuation have to come down.”

In this podcast, Peter also talked about Amazon, Apple and Netflix’s disappointing earnings reports, Meta and Alphabet’s pain as advertising money dries up, the need for consumers to save no and buy later, and Elon Musk’s Twitter purchase.

end

Why Should You Be Bullish On Silver?

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 02:40 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

There are reasons to be bullish on silver, not just because of its role as a monetary metal and inflation hedge, but also due to its importance as an industrial metal. Doug Casey recently talked about silver’s many uses and what it means for the future with International Man.

The first question posted to Casey was what makes silver useful and valuable?

Casey said in the first place, silver has historically been money.

Throughout history, three metals have been used as money: gold, silver, and copper. All share the five qualities of good money—durability, divisibility, portability, consistency, and intrinsic value—but in different proportions. All three metals can be bought for the same reasons as well—each is a long-term store of value, a medium of exchange, and an interesting speculation, at least periodically. Gold has always been, and probably always will be used primarily as money. Copper will probably remain an industrial metal. Silver falls neatly in between them both in price, the way it’s used, and where it fits into your investment portfolio. It can be viewed both as a way to save—like gold—and a way to speculate—like copper.”

Silver possesses qualities that make it ideal for use in electronics, medicine, along with other technological applications. It is an extremely important element in the green energy revolution. As Casey pointed out, of the 92 naturally occurring elements, silver is the best conductor of both heat and energy. About 60% of silver is used in industrial applications.

Some argue that a slowing economy will drag silver down. But Casey says that’s not necessarily the case.

If the economy continues to slow down a lot, which I expect as we go into the Greater Depression, industrial metals are likely to get hurt. But silver has a few things that ameliorate that situation. As I said, more high-tech uses are being discovered all the time, helping the consumption side of the equation. The fact that it’s mostly a byproduct of industrial metals means that as their production drops in an economic downturn, the production of silver will drop as well. I’m much more bullish about silver than any other industrial metal—with the possible exception of uranium. At the same time, the fact that it’s a monetary metal is going to bring in a lot of buying from savers and speculators, further supporting its price.”

Casey alluded to the fact that there are very few standalone silver mines. Most silver production is a byproduct of the mining of other metals. This means that economic slowdowns will likely impact the supply side as much as demand.

Global silver production totals about 800 million ounces annually. That compares to about 80 million ounces of gold. But as Casey points out, there are no substantial silver inventories in the world.  On the other hand, most of the 6 billion ounces of gold mined over the course of history, are still in existence and being stored somewhere.

If you’re bullish on gold, you should be even more bullish on silver. Silver typically outperforms gold in a gold bull market. And the silver-gold ratio indicates that silver is significantly underpriced when compared to gold. Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.

Casey was asked why silver tends to outperform gold during gold bull runs.

Although about 80 million ounces of gold are produced every year, new production of gold is really unimportant to its price. That’s because all the gold that’s ever been mined, the 6 billion ounces that I mentioned before, is still above ground. What influences its price is the desire of people to hold it—not the roughly 1.3% added to its inventory every year. Gold is almost unique in this regard.

With silver, however, there’s not a huge relative amount of inventory to deal with. I don’t have that number, but it’s basically about new mine production. Silver inventories are in line with other industrial metals—very different from the days when the US government alone owned two billion ounces, not counting the billions more that used to be in US dimes, quarters, halves, and silver dollars. In relative terms, everything about silver is small, and small markets by their nature tend to be volatile.

There’s another thing: For many years, silver has developed a lot of fans who see it almost as a religious icon. Maybe they’re people that can’t afford gold, but silver has always, for some reason, been viewed as almost a magical element by some people, mostly Americans. They’re much more fanatical than gold bugs (among which I have to number myself).”

Casey said he is primarily bullish on silver, along with other commodities, because it is virtually the only sector in the financial markets that hasn’t been in a bubble.

If we get the kind of precious metals bull market that I’m anticipating, mining stocks, particularly silver stocks, could do phenomenally well. We’ll see them move 10-1 as a group, with some doing much better. It will have been worth the wait.”

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold price picks up strongly in Europe amid strong CB demand report.

We had thought things probably couldn’t get any worse for the gold investor until, that is, late October trade in the U.S. took the price down to the mid $1,630s. But respite now looks as though it may be in store for aficionados of the yellow metal, at least in European trade at the beginning of November. The start of the new month saw a sharp rise in price back to the $1,650 level and above, amid reports from the World Gold Council (WGC) of record Q3 gold demand from central banks. It remains to be seen whether this represents the sea change in sentiment towards the precious metal that the gold bulls have long awaited, or is yet another false dawn. They will also have gained some encouragement from reports of some gold ETF inflows, albeit small ones, into non-U.S. exchange traded funds, after seemingly months of constant withdrawals.

It is early days yet, but the WGC analysis suggests that Q3 central bank gold inflows totalled almost 400 tonnes, reckoned to be over four times the amount the central banks added to their reserves in Q3 2021. The WGC thus puts the central bank purchases year-to-date at the highest level since 1967, when the dollar was still backed by gold. This puts a potential new high on full year central bank gold accumulations, although the WGC does not yet necessarily know the full list of central banks so involved, although there have been several which have pointed to an intention to add significantly to their gold reserves, but not necessarily confirmed that they have already done so.

Some recent known gold buyers have included India, Turkey and Qatar but many buyers are so far unreported, although some of these will eventually disclose increases in gold reserves in their reports on their gold holdings to the IMF, assuming they are forthcoming in this. There are some nations, though, which could be adding significant amounts of gold to their forex reserves which are known non- reporters – or rather only report increases to their holdings when they feel it is politically expedient for them to do so. These include China and Russia. The latter used to be a regular reporter of its reserve increases, but now that it is involved in its military incursions into Ukraine considers this sensitive strategic information and is an avowed non-reporter.

Today is also the first day of the two days of the U.S. Fed’s November Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at which the U.S. central bank will set its short term interest rate policy. This is widely expected to see a 75 basis point (3/4%) increase in the Federal Funds rate.

Markets will be looking for hints that there might be a slightly less aggressive approach to the Fed’s interest rate policy ahead despite there being apparently little let-up in inflation. What short term effect this may have on the gold price remains to be seen, but any signs of easing in the interest rate policy in forthcoming FOMC meetings will probably be positive for the yellow metal. Whether this would be sufficiently so to take the gold price back above the $1,700 mark or higher is perhaps dubious unless there are definite signs that inflation may at last be peaking, but that may yet be too soon to hope for.

-END-

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Another mining company goes down due to higher costs and not enough revenue

Toronto/Globe and Mail

Pure Gold shareholders face wipeout after junior fails at Red Lake mine

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-31 22:23Section: Daily Dispatches

By Niall McGee
Globe and Mail, Toronto
Monday, October 31, 2022

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-pure-gold-files-for-creditor-protection-after-failing-to-turn-around/

Pure Gold Mining Inc. PGM-X shareholders face losing their entire investment with the junior miner filing for creditor protection after it failed to turn around its gold project in the notoriously hard-to-mine Red Lake district of Northern Ontario.

Last year Vancouver-based Pure Gold ran into trouble when it encountered both grade and production shortfalls at its Madsen mine soon after putting it into production.

The Red Lake region, which has been mined for nearly 100 years, is known for its high-grade underground gold deposits. While tantalizingly rich in grade, Red Lake is also renowned for gold that is not evenly distributed but instead routinely occurs randomly and erratically, meaning miners need superb technical skills to get it right.

Over the past 18 months Pure Gold had tried to salvage its project by replacing its chief executive twice, redoing a technical study that aimed to find a path to profitable mining, and keeping itself going by raising cash through dilutive equity issues. But last week the junior put shareholders on notice by revealing it failed to raise nearly as much cash as it needed from its latest funding effort. The company also ceased production at Madsen, since it was running dangerously low on funds.

On Monday Pure Gold said it applied for creditor protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) with the Supreme Court of British Columbia. When companies enter CCAA, typically it is only the debtholders who stand to salvage some of their holdings, while equity holders typically get wiped out.

Pure Gold, which at one point reached a market value of $685 million, closed today’s trading session on the TSX Venture Exchange worth almost nothing.

The company’s biggest shareholder is South African miner AngloGold Ashanti, with a 16.5% stake. Mark O’Dea, Pure Gold’s chief executive, has a 2.2% share. Mining financier Eric Sprott, who has myriad equity investments spread across many junior miners, is the second-biggest holder of Pure Gold with a 6.7% stake.

“I don’t think I lost $100 million, but it could very well be,” Mr. Sprott said in an interview. “At this point in time, the bigger the better, because it’s a tax write-off. Now that it’s worth nothing, please tell me I lost $100 million or $200 million. I’ll use the tax loss.”

Pure Gold holds only around $2 million in cash, compared with more than $200 million in liabilities. Sprott Resource Lending, which is owned by Sprott Inc. SII-T, a firm the billionaire investor founded, is its biggest creditor.

This isn’t the first time that the Red Lake district has claimed a junior miner. In 2016 shareholders at Rubicon Minerals Corp., which at one time had a market value of $1 billion, lost everything after the company’s mine ran into serious geological problems. A restructured version of the company, Battle North Gold Corp., was acquired by Australia’s Evolution Mining Ltd. last year.

In 2008 Goldcorp Inc., bought Red Lake exploration company Gold Eagle Mines Ltd. for $1.5 billion. The acquisition ended in disaster for Goldcorp, which was unable to put the project into production despite spending hundreds of millions in additional development costs.

Pure Gold’s Madsen project had previously operated for 40 years, producing 2.5 million ounces of gold, before it was shut down in the 1970s. Pure Gold’s founders, Mr. O’Dea and Darin Labrenz, acquired the defunct project in 2014 and their early development work indicated that a new iteration of the mine could produce an additional million ounces of gold. Eventually the pair attracted investment from the likes of Mr. Sprott and Robert McEwen, the founder of Goldcorp. While reviving dormant mine sites can be lucrative because upfront costs tend to be much lower than starting from scratch, they are far from risk-free.

“There probably was excessive optimism initially,” Mr. Sprott said. “Maybe things could have been done at a different level early on, when there was more market cap to work with, but c’est la vie.”

Despite the recurrent stumbles with Red Lake, it remains a gold district that generates excitement and lofty valuations. Last year Kinross Gold Corp. paid $1.8 billion to acquire Great Bear Resources Ltd., another Red Lake operator whose mining project hasn’t been built yet. The purchase price was one of the highest on record for the acquisition of a development company that has no proven reserves.

Evolution Mining had been mentioned by analysts as a possible buyer of Pure Gold before it filed for CCAA. Over the past few years the Sydney-based miner has invested heavily in the Red Lake region. In 2020 Evolution paid US$375 million to acquire Red Lake gold mines owned by U.S.-based Newmont Corp., assets that were previously owned and operated by Goldcorp.

end

European inflation hits a record 10.7%

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

Eurozone inflation hits record 10.7%

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-31 12:54Section: Daily Dispatches

By Martin Arnold
Financial Times, London
Monday, October 21, 2022

Eurozone inflation surged to a record high of 10.7% in October, keeping the pressure on the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates despite a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter.

The increase in eurozone consumer prices accelerated from 9.9% in September, which was already the highest in the 23-year history of the euro

The latest high, reported today by the European Commission’s statistics arm Eurostat, also outstripped the 10.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. It was the 12th consecutive month that inflation has set a record high in the eurozone, taking it to more than five times the ECB’s 2% target.

Claus Vistesen, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest inflation figures were “a proper Halloween nightmare for the ECB.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/d783e38e-7a58-4285-b68a-55e357bb8c4b

END

BIS swaps remain at its lows at 57 tonnes

(Robert Lambourne/GATA)

Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps stay very low for second month

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-31 20:31Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Monday, October 31, 2022

The recently released September statement of account of the Bank for International Settlements —

— shows little change in the bank’s use of gold swaps for the second month running. The gold swaps outstanding at September 30 are estimated to be 57 tonnes versus 75 tonnes and 56 tonnes as of August 31 and July 29, respectively. This recent level is much reduced from the level of swaps at June 30, which was 202 tonnes. 

As is clear from Table B below, the level of swaps had been significantly higher in the first half of the year. For example, at the end of January 2022 there were gold swaps of 501 tonnes.

Once again it is evident that the BIS remains an active trader of significant volumes of gold swaps on a regular basis, and the recent data indicates that a downward trend in the bank’s swaps is continuing. Certainly the current level of gold swaps is well below the levels reported in Table B below since August 2019.

The falling levels of gold swaps might indicate an exit from the swaps due potentially to “Basel III” regulations. As is usually the case with the BIS, it seems unlikely that any extra information on its use of gold swaps will be forthcoming.

… Historical context …

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-0 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. 

It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially create a mismatch at the BIS, which may end up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the establishment of the bank 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:

https://www.gata.org/node/11012

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines do seem to suggest this is changing.

As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in gold sight accounts at major central banks in the name of the BIS, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosure made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements remain large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant. 

No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010. 

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve. 

The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS is facilitating it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets to be returned to the central banks. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.

As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010. 

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) was higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 were at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.

—–

Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes
March 2022: 358 tonnes

—–

The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

—–

Table B — Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Sep-22………/57
Aug-22……./75
Jul-22………/56
Jun-22……./202
May-22……./270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

https://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS is almost certainly acting on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions. 

A report published by Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly on the Bank of Portugal’s use of its gold reserves reinforces this point as the Bank of Portugal confirms that 20 tonnes of its gold is stored with the BIS: 

https://www.gata.org/node/21950

This disclosure seems a little economical with the truth as the BIS has no gold storage facilities of its own. Gold held by the BIS on behalf of central banks is either deposited into a BIS gold sight (unallocated) account or a BIS earmarked (allocated) gold account and deposited normally with one of the central banks based at a major gold trading center, such as the Federal Reserve in New York. 

Since Manly shows that the Bank of Portugal is focused on earning income from its gold, it seems likely that this gold is held in a BIS sight account, though its ultimate location is unclear.

It is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market. 

* * *

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: URANIUM/ENERGY

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2586 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2627

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 75.72 PTS OR  2.62%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 768.25 OR 5.23% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 91.46PTS OR 0.33%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  110.65/Euro RISES TO 0.9945

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 147,05/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.035%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.129%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.098%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.518//

3j Gold at $1653.95//silver at: 19.97  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 5/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.41//

3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 147,03DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9918– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9863well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.941% DOWN 14 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.069% DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4755%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Surge Amid Speculation China Set To Ease Covid Zero; Dollar Tumbles

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 08:12 AM

US equity futures started off the new month with a bang, set to surge after Monday’s less than spooky declines, as investors awaited Wednesday’s Fed decision (where JPM sees one outcome pushing stocks 10% higher… and another sending them crashing 8%), while sentiment got a big boost from speculation that Chinese policymakers are making preparations to gradually exit the stringent Covid Zero policy. 

At 7:30am, contracts on the S&P 500 rose 1.0% while those on the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1% on the first day of November, a month that has seen the underlying benchmarks end in the green on average for the past three decades. Dow Jones futures climbed 0.6% after the underlying gauge wrapped up its best month since 1976. Treasuries were poised for their biggest jump in a week as 10Y yields dropped to 3.94%, alongside real rates and the dollar as hawkish Fed hike wagers are trimmed ahead of this week’s policy outcome; the yen, euro and cable surged.

Chinese stocks listed in the US surged in New York premarket trading, their gains fueled by speculation that Beijing is preparing to phase out Covid Zero policies, even as the country’s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of such a plan. The KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund, an exchange-traded fund holding more than 40 Chinese stocks, soared 7.7%. Also in the premarket, Tesla shares rose as much as 2.1% following a Reuters report that the EV maker plans to start mass production of its Cybertruck at the end of 2023. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Abiomed shares soared 51% in US premarket trading to $379.55 after Johnson & Johnson agreed to buy all its outstanding shares for an upfront payment of $380 per share in cash plus a CVR consideration of up to $35 if certain clinical and commercial milestones are achieved
  • GameStop shares rise as much as 5.6% in US premarket trading, with a meme-stock revival set to extend into a second day as other stocks popular with retail traders also rally. The video-game retailer also launched an NFT marketplace. Among other meme stocks AMC Entertainment (AMC US) +1.4%, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) +3.5%, Lucid (LCID US) +2.1%
  • Carvana shares jump as much as 15% in US premarket trading after JPMorgan upgraded the online used-car platform to neutral from underweight, with analysts saying that risks appear to be “better understood” and liquidity is “manageable.”
  • Macau casino stocks rise in US premarket trading amid speculation that China is planning to gradually exit its Covid Zero policies, even as the country’s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of any government committee that’s assessing ways to carry out the plan. Melco Resorts (MLCO US) +7.5%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) +4.1%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) +3.3% and MGM Resorts (MGM US) +2.3%
  • Stryker delivered a strong top-line that bodes well for the medtech group’s outlook, but questions remain on when that will translate into a stronger earnings performance, analysts say. Stryker shares fell 5% in postmarket trading after the update.

All eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday, when it’s widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth time but the question is how Powell will guide for December and his views on the terminal rate. His comments will also be key in understanding the trajectory of tightening in the US, where the policy is already having an impact on company earnings.

“What is important is the path Chair Powell lays out for next year. The Fed probably doesn’t want the market to start pricing in rate cuts, and this is what the market tends to do,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “It’s an open invitation to buy stocks in case we do get a Fed pivot or inflation starts abating and we get a huge asymmetrical move to the top side.”  

Strategists are expecting the US central bank to end tightening in the near term. Indicators including the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. Also, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is seeing signs boosting optimism that the global tightening cycle could end by early 2023, which of course is also market consensus.

“If the Fed does give us some indication that there is light at the end of the tunnel, we are very close if not already past peak dollar,” Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Julius Baer said on Bloomberg TV. “Then all the currencies which have declined like the euro will rebound.”

Meanwhile, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said Fed officials will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance this week, laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching 5% by March 2023, moves that seem likely to lead to a US and global recession. Nomura Holdings Inc. quantitative strategist Yoshitaka Suda said derivatives cues imply the pace of the ongoing rebound in the S&P 500 benchmark is likely to dwindle after the Fed’s decision. The comparatively low volatility ahead of the meeting shows that the options market is “increasingly optimistic” about the event, he said. A shift in options hedging by traders could also weigh on the market, he added.

European equity benchmarks rose over 1% as bond yields retreated lower. CAC 40 outperfoms while the DAX lags peers a bit. Mining shares led gains as most base metals trade in the green. European luxury stocks jumped, tracking an earlier rally in Chinese markets on speculation that the country’s policymakers are looking at gradually unwinding its stringent Covid Zero policy. LVMH rose as much as 3.9%. Shares in tech investor Naspers and its unit Prosus also surged, following Tencent higher as Chinese tech stocks rose after unverified social media posts circulated online that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said he’s unaware of a committee. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Oil advanced and BP Plc climbed after announcing a further $2.5 billion buyback. Here are Europe’s biggest movers: 
  • Ocado Group surged as much as 40% in a brisk short covering rally sparked by news the UK online grocer has entered a partnership to develop Lotte’s online business in South Korea.
  • Shares of European online retailers and food delivery firms rally on Tuesday after heavy selling this year, as yields on 10-year US Treasuries and German bunds slide. Delivery Hero rises as much as 15%.
  • Scor shares gain as much as 6.3% as Mediobanca upgraded the reinsurer to outperform in a reshuffling of its sector preferences.
  • ALKB- Abello fell as much as 7% after Danske Bank analyst Thomas Bowers cut the recommendation to hold from buy.
  • Fresenius Medical Care falls as much as 5.5% after Warburg downgraded the stock to sell from hold, citing increased uncertainties regarding the supply chain and macro factors despite 3Q figures slightly above estimates.
  • Rentokil shares drop as much as 4.5% after the company posted 3Q growth in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley noted that the firm’s maintained outlook implies more subdued progress on margins in 2H.

Asian stocks advanced ahead of a key US Federal Reserve rate decision, as Chinese shares staged a strong rebound on speculation of a potential reopening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.4%, the most in more than two weeks, as Chinese and Hong Kong gauges roared back from multi-year lows on speculation that policymakers are making preparations to gradually exit the stringent Covid Zero policy. The Hang Seng Index climbed more than 5%, with internet giants Meituan and Tencent Holdings the biggest contributors to the advance.

Unverified social media posts circulated online on Tuesday showed a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero. A Covid-induced economic slowdown in China has been one of the biggest overhangs for the region’s markets. “Obviously some people are betting big on China’s reopening,” said Willer Chen, an analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia. “At this level, it’s probably better to trade every rumor than ridiculing its authenticity.” Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve looks set to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday amid its most-aggressive tightening campaign in four decades. Investors will be watching for any signs that hikes may slow in the future. Asian equities fell 2% in October, capping a third-straight monthly decline, amid headwinds including China’s slowdown and global monetary tightening. The MSCI Asian benchmark is hovering near the lowest level since April 2020.

Japanese stocks rose as the yen’s weakness was seen providing earnings benefits for the nation’s exporters. The Topix rose 0.5% to close at 1,938.50, while the Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 27,678.92. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.4%. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 1,011 rose and 1,044 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks are holding firm as the market sees a positive impact of the yen’s depreciation reflected in the recent earnings,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management

Australian government bond yields reversed earlier gains and the nation’s stocks rallied to a seven-week high after the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter point as expected and signaled further tightening to come as it combats escalating inflation. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.7% to close at 6,976.90, the highest since Sept. 13, Mining and bank shares boosted the benchmark most, with all 11 sectors advancing.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,316.64

India’s key stocks posted its 11th advance in thirteen sessions, inching closer to record levels on robust earnings and resumption of foreign flows. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.6% to close at 61,121.35 in Mumbai, its highest since Jan. 17. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.7%. The gauges rose more than 5% each in October and are trading close to their peak levels seen a year ago.   All but one of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by power companies and utilities. Software exporter Infosys Ltd. provided the biggest boost to the Sensex, which is now close to trading at 14-day RSI of 70, a signal to some traders that the security is overbought.    Foreigners bought $186 million of Indian equities in the month through Oct. 28 after net withdrawals of $1.6 billion in September.    Corporate earnings for the September quarter have been mostly impressive. Of 32 Nifty companies which have so far reported, 21 have either met or exceeded average analyst estimates, while nine have missed. Agrochemicals maker UPL Ltd.’s quarterly numbers trailed the estimates on Tuesday, while three Nifty companies beat the consensus.   

In rates bunds, Treasuries and gilts all rallied across the curve. US yields are richer by 6bp to 10bp across the curve with gains led by intermediates, tightening the 2s5s30s fly by 4.5bp on the day; 10-year yields near lows of the day around 3.95%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 1.5bp and 3bp in the sector. The advance began during Asia session after RBA raised rates 25bp and lowered GDP forecasts. Gilts rally added support, with the UK government focusing on raising taxes to restore stability to public finances. In swaps market, Fed-dated OIS rates ease lower ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot index falls 0.6%, snapping three days of gains as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve to potentially turn less hawkish at this week’s policy meeting. DKK and EUR were the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and NOK outperform. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points this week and some analysts are beginning to believe that the most aggressive interest-rate hiking cycle in decades by global central banks is nearing an end “Markets may be attempting to front-run the Fed on bets they may not give an outsized rate hike at the meeting this week, which is buoying other currencies against the dollar,” said Mingze Wu, a foreign-exchange trader at StoneX Group in Singapore. The Australian dollar gained against the greenback after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps.  “While the market may interpret this as the central bank potentially signaling a pause in rate hikes, we think this would be wrong as the RBA is simply reinforcing its gradual approach of raising rates by 25bp rate hikes at its next few meetings,” says David Forrester, FX strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

In commodities, Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday but off best levels, deriving support in tandem with broader risk sentiment on the China COVID rumours and associated USD pullback. WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are around USD 87.00/bbl (85.92-88.24 range) and USD 93.50/bbl (92.33-94.74) respectively. WTI trades within Monday’s range, adding 1.7% to trade near $88-handle. Brent rises 1.6% to top $94. Spot gold is bolstered by the USD’s retreat and has surpassed the 10-DMA but met  resistance thereafter around USD 1650/oz amid the constructive risk tone. Base metals are firmer across the board on the China reports, with LME copper briefly extending past USD 7.6k/T for instance.

Bitcoin is firmer but in contained ranges above the USD 20k mark, while more pronounced upside is seen in the likes of ETH and Dogecoin.

Looking to the day ahead, data releases from the US include the ISM manufacturing reading for October and the JOLTS job openings for September. Otherwise, there’s the October manufacturing PMIs from around the world. Earnings releases include Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Uber. Finally in the political sphere, general elections will be taking place in Denmark and Israel.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 3,915.25
  • MXAP up 2.1% to 139.01
  • MXAPJ up 2.5% to 444.55
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 27,678.92
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,938.50
  • Hang Seng Index up 5.2% to 15,455.27
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.6% to 2,969.20
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 61,024.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,976.86
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,335.22
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 417.58
  • German 10Y yield down 3.3% to 2.07%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $0.9926
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $94.10/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,648.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.54% to 110.93

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Crispin Odey has closed his flagship hedge fund and two others to new clients, hoping to keep assets at a manageable level following a record year.
  • Chinese stocks roared back from a rout and the yuan strengthened as speculation mounted that policymakers are making preparations to gradually exit the stringent Covid Zero policy that’s been the biggest bugbear for investors.
  • UK house prices fell the most since the start of the pandemic in October as political and market turmoil sent shock waves through the property market.
  • Any bargain hunters hoping to snap up Credit Suisse Group AG now that the lender’s revamp has pushed its stock down yet again may find themselves getting short shrift in Zurich.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region shrugged off the losses on Wall St and with Chinese Caixin PMI data not as bad as feared, although some cautiousness remained ahead of the looming risk events. ASX 200 finished positive with all sectors in the green after the RBA rate decision whereby it stuck to a 25bps rate increase instead of reverting to a more aggressive pace. Nikkei 225 eked modest gains amid a slew of earnings releases which were the catalyst for the biggest movers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both positive with notable outperformance in Hong Kong amid a tech-led surge and  bargain buying after its brief retreat beneath the 15,000 level, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI data printed better than forecast despite remaining at a contraction.

Top Asian News

  • Bloomberg suggests that the gains in Chinese stocks are due to an unverified social media post that circulated online overnight that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit COVID Zero; subsequently, China’s Foreign Ministry says they are not aware of the situation.
  • Zhengzhou in C.China’s Henan said on Tue that the city will lift the temporary control for COVID-19 low-risk regions and gradually resume normal life “after over 10-day fight against the virus”, according to Global Times.
  • RBA hiked the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 2.85%, as expected. RBA said the board remains resolute in determination to return inflation to the target and expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, as well as reiterated that the size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. RBA also noted that the central forecast for GDP growth has been revised down a little with growth of around 3% expected this year and 1.5% in 2023 and 2024, while inflation is now forecast to peak at around 8% later this year and the central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 4.75% over 2023 and a little above 3% over 2024.
  • RBA Governor Lowe says the board has judged it appropriate to raise rates at a lower magnitude, will return to larger rate hikes if deemed necessary, will hold rate if the situation requires it.
  • Hong Kong Exchange is to to cut trading tariff on cash market to boost market efficiency, effective 1st Jan 2023.

European bourses are firmer across the board with commodity stocks leading the way on the overnight China COVID rumours, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.40%. Sectors are all in the green and show clear outperformance in Basic Resources while some of the more defensively inclined sectors lag, but remain positive overall. Stateside, futures are similarly supported though magnitudes a touch more contained ES +0.8%; NQ outperforms as global yields pullback post-RBA with key data and more Central Bank action looming.

Top European News

  • ECB President Lagarde said they have not reached the destination on rates yet and reiterated that the ECB is committed to doing whatever it takes to get inflation back to the 2% target, while she added that inflation is too high throughout the eurozone and the possibility of a recession has increased.
  • Europe is set for mild weather in November, via Bloomberg citing forecasters.
  • Sunak, Hunt Say ‘Inevitable’ All Britons Will Pay More Tax
  • Credit Suisse Top Wealth Executive Sommerhalder Leaving Firm
  • Ex-Deutsche Trader Asks Top Court to Quash Spoofing Conviction
  • Sasol Convertible Bond Books Are Covered, Terms Show
  • Ocado Deal With South Korea’s Lotte Shopping Boosts Shares

FX

  • USD pressured as risk rebounds and yields retreat, with new month and pre-FOMC positioning also potentially impacting; DXY sub-111.00 to a 110.80 low.
  • USD/JPY slumps amid fresh remarks from Finance Minister Suzuki, approaching a test of the 147.00 mark vs earlier 148.80 best.
  • Antipodeans benefit from the USD but NZD outpaces its AUD peer following the RBA sticking with a 25bp hike and Governor Lowe thereafter keeping their options open.
  • Both EUR and GBP benefitting from the USD’s dip with Cable reclaiming 1.15 after an upward revision to Manufacturing PMI while EUR/USD remains just shy of hefty OpEx at 0.9950.
  • Petro-FX benefits from benchmark pricing with Norwegian data adding impetus for the Scandi’s while the CAD awaits its own PMI release.

Fixed Income

  • Both core and periphery benchmarks are bid amid a broad pullback in yields post-RBA and as participants await upcoming Central Bank announcements and key data readings.
  • Gilts are the current outperformer and have topped 103.00 amid the latest reporting around the upcoming Autumn statement.
  • Specifically for the complex, today sees the commencement of the BoE’s QT with the first operation focused on the short-end.
  • Both Bunds and USTs are similarly supported in tandem with a busy afternoon and week-ahead docket stateside, USTs peaking at 111.15 thus far.
  • UK DMO reschedules the 0.35% 2025 Gilt to November 23rd (prev. November 16th).

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday but off best levels, deriving support in tandem with broader risk sentiment on the China COVID rumours and associated USD pullback.
  • Specifically, WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are around USD 87.00/bbl (85.92-88.24 range) and USD 93.50/bbl (92.33-94.74) respectively.
  • Russia Deputy PM Novak says Russia and Iran discussed an oil swap and gas supply, according to TASS.
  • Iranian Oil Minister says “our relations with Russia are closer than ever, and the level of cooperation will increase day by day”, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Libya’s NOC chief says oil output at 1.2mln BPD (vs 1.163mln BPD reported in September due to power issues).
  • Spot gold is bolstered by the USD’s retreat and has surpassed the 10-DMA but met resistance thereafter around USD 1650/oz amid the constructive risk tone.
  • Base metals are firmer across the board on the China reports, with LME copper briefly extending past USD 7.6k/T for instance.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.9, prior 49.9
  • 10:00: Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.75m, prior 10.1m
  • 10:00: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 50.0, prior 50.9
    • Oct. ISM Employment, prior 48.7
    • Oct. ISM New Orders, prior 47.1
    • Oct. ISM Prices Paid, est. 53.0, prior 51.7
  • 10:00: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.6%, prior -0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning again from NY. I’ve had to fly back for an important event after only landing back to London from NY on Friday. I had a load of emails and work to do on the plane but was told that their Wi-Fi wasn’t working. I hadn’t downloaded any films or research so after briefly working out what on earth I could do for 7 hours without any entertainment or work, I plumped for starting to write a surprise Xmas song for my family on the recording software on my iPad (note: with headphones). I now have two verses, a chorus, drums, some sleigh bells, Xmas strings and some heavy sampled guitar riffs. It’s either quite good or awful. I’m not sure which yet. I’ll aim to give it to them on December 1st. If you’re unlucky I’ll offer up a link to it then. You can see my short surprise Halloween song on my Bloomberg header page. It’s not for the faint hearted.

December is now only a month away as today welcomes in November. Since it’s the start of the month, Henry will be shortly releasing our usual performance review. October proved to be a much better month for financial assets after the disastrous performance over Q3, aided by hopes of a pivot from central banks, a stabilisation in Europe’s energy situation, as well as an end to the UK market turmoil. But we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, as the S&P 500’s +8.1% gain over the month in total return terms means it’s only partially recovered from its -9.2% loss in September, let alone its -23.9% loss over the first nine months of the year as a whole. There’s also some other interesting milestones, with gold having lost ground for a 7th consecutive month for the first time since 1869. The full report will be in your inboxes shortly.

When it comes to the last 24 hours in markets, investors have been in something of a holding pattern ahead of the Fed’s decision tomorrow, but previous hopes about an imminent central bank pivot have continued to fade. The latest catalyst was another upside inflation surprise from the Euro Area, albeit one flagged from some of the regional reports on Friday. Once again, the inflation report was bad news from whichever angle you wanted to look at it, with the headline CPI reading for October rising to +10.7% according to the flash reading, which was not only above the +10.3% expected (which may have been a bit stale after Friday), but also easily the highest inflation since the formation of the single currency. So that’s further bad news for the ECB, and points away from some of the more dovish signals they sent at last week’s press conference.

Even as headline inflation hit a new record, what’s concerning for policymakers is that the details suggest it’s increasingly impossible to just pin this on the energy shock, even if that has been the single biggest driver. In fact, CPI excluding energy hit a record +6.9%, and overall core CPI also hit a record +5.0%. In addition, the rises have been broad-based across the 19 countries that make up the single currency, and October marked the first month yet that inflation has been above 7% in every single Euro Area country at once. We did hear from a couple of the more dovish members of the ECB’s Governing Council yesterday, including Italy’s Visco, who warned that a worse-than-expected deterioration in the economic outlook “shouldn’t be underestimated”, and said that there were “no clear signs” that inflation expectations were becoming unanchored.

That backdrop prompted a decent selloff across European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.1bps), OATs (+6.3bps) and BTPs (+12.7bps) all moving higher on the day. That came as inflation breakevens in France hit their highest level since May, with the 10yr breakeven up +1.1bps on the day to 2.79%.

Those moves higher in inflation expectations were given further support by the latest moves in European natural gas prices, which continued to tick higher from their recent lows last week, gaining another +9.90% yesterday to hit €123 per megawatt-hour. That pattern was echoed more broadly, with UK natural gas futures up +22.04% after the Met Office released their latest 3-month weather outlook for the UK. Although the forecast said that their base case (60%) was that the coming season would be around average in terms of temperature, there was a larger chance than usual that it would be a cold season (25%), and a smaller than usual chance of a mild season (15%).

Over in the US, there was a similar unwinding in the pivot trade yesterday as investors looked forward to the Fed’s decision tomorrow. For instance, the peak terminal rate priced in for the May 2023 meeting rose by +7.1bps yesterday to 4.96%, which is the highest it’s been since the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos released his article on October 21 discussing the potential for a slower pace of rate hikes from December. And in turn, expectations of a more aggressive pace of rate hikes meant that Treasuries lost ground too yesterday. 10yr yields were nearly 10bps higher intraday, before rallying hard late on in what looked like month-end driven buying flows to finish the day just +3.6bps higher at 4.05%. Speaking of Timiraos though, a reminder that as we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, he wrote a further article on Sunday pointing out that cash-rich consumers with larger savings buffers could mean that interest rates need to move higher than anticipated given spending is less sensitive. So if you value him as an indicator of the Fed’s thinking, that certainly pointed in a more hawkish direction as well.

With the pivot trade unwinding, equities put in a weaker performance and the S&P 500 (-0.75%) moved off from its six-week high that it reached on Friday. It was a broad-based decline, but the more cyclical sectors and interest-sensitive tech stocks suffered in particular, with the FANG+ index (-1.81%) nearly reaching its recent low from mid-October. Over in Europe the main indices put in a somewhat better performance, with the STOXX 600 up +0.35%, but that in part reflected the fact that they hadn’t been open during the late US rally on Friday.

Overnight in Asia however, the major equity indices have put in a much stronger performance, with the Hang Seng (+3.43%) leading the way, followed by the CSI 300 (+2.00%), the KOSPI (+1.42%), the Shanghai Comp (+1.22%), and the Nikkei (+0.15%). That’s come amidst sizeable advances for tech stocks, with the Hang Seng tech index up by an even larger +4.71%. In the meantime, Australian equities have also rallied following the RBA’s decision to raise their cash rate target by 25bps to 2.85%, in line with expectations. Their statement said that the Board “expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead.” They also upgraded their inflation forecasts relative to last month, now saying they expected CPI inflation to be around 4.75% over 2023, having previously said they saw it “a little above” 4%. Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing higher as well, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.43%.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, Euro Area GDP grew a bit faster than expected in Q3, with the preliminary flash estimate showing growth of +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected). Otherwise, German retail sales unexpectedly grew by +0.9% in September (vs. -0.5% expected), and UK mortgage approvals fell by less than expected in September to 66.8k (vs. 63.7k expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM manufacturing reading for October and the JOLTS job openings for September. Otherwise, there’s the October manufacturing PMIs from around the world. Earnings releases include Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Uber. Finally in the political sphere, general elections will be taking place in Denmark and Israel.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

European bourses are firmer across the board with commodity stocks leading the way on the overnight China COVID rumours – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 06:46 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board with commodity stocks leading the way on the overnight China COVID rumours.
  • Stateside, futures are similarly supported though magnitudes a touch more contained ES +0.8%; NQ outperforms as global yields pullback.
  • Unconfirmed reports that a Chinese committee is being formed to assess how to exit COVID Zero; however, this was subject to push back
  • USD pressured as risk rebounds and yields retreat, with new month and pre-FOMC positioning also potentially impacting; DXY sub-111.00.
  • Core and periphery fixed benchmarks are bid with Gilts currently leading amid the latest fiscal musings and as we look to the BoE’s QT starting in the short-end
  • Commodities are lifted across the board in wake of the China COVID-related updates; crude complex remains attentive to ADIPEC
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, Earnings from Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Uber & AMD.

As of 10:25GMT/06:25ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, Earnings from Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Uber & AMD.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board with commodity stocks leading the way on the overnight China COVID rumours, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.40%.
  • Sectors are all in the green and show clear outperformance in Basic Resources while some of the more defensively inclined sectors lag, but remain positive overall.
  • Stateside, futures are similarly supported though magnitudes a touch more contained ES +0.8%; NQ outperforms as global yields pullback post-RBA with key data and more Central Bank action looming.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • USD pressured as risk rebounds and yields retreat, with new month and pre-FOMC positioning also potentially impacting; DXY sub-111.00 to a 110.80 low.
  • USD/JPY slumps amid fresh remarks from Finance Minister Suzuki, approaching a test of the 147.00 mark vs earlier 148.80 best.
  • Antipodeans benefit from the USD but NZD outpaces its AUD peer following the RBA sticking with a 25bp hike and Governor Lowe thereafter keeping their options open.
  • Both EUR and GBP benefitting from the USD’s dip with Cable reclaiming 1.15 after an upward revision to Manufacturing PMI while EUR/USD remains just shy of hefty OpEx at 0.9950.
  • Petro-FX benefits from benchmark pricing with Norwegian data adding impetus for the Scandi’s while the CAD awaits its own PMI release.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9800 (1.6BN), 0.9860 (558M), 0.9900 (312M), 0.9950 (1.97BN), 0.9970 (274M), 1.0000 (1.17BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Both core and periphery benchmarks are bid amid a broad pullback in yields post-RBA and as participants await upcoming Central Bank announcements and key data readings.
  • Gilts are the current outperformer and have topped 103.00 amid the latest reporting around the upcoming Autumn statement.
  • Specifically for the complex, today sees the commencement of the BoE’s QT with the first operation focused on the short-end.
  • Both Bunds and USTs are similarly supported in tandem with a busy afternoon and week-ahead docket stateside, USTs peaking at 111.15 thus far.
  • UK DMO reschedules the 0.35% 2025 Gilt to November 23rd (prev. November 16th).
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday but off best levels, deriving support in tandem with broader risk sentiment on the China COVID rumours and associated USD pullback.
  • Specifically, WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are around USD 87.00/bbl (85.92-88.24 range) and USD 93.50/bbl (92.33-94.74) respectively.
  • Russia Deputy PM Novak says Russia and Iran discussed an oil swap and gas supply, according to TASS.
  • Iranian Oil Minister says “our relations with Russia are closer than ever, and the level of cooperation will increase day by day”, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Libya’s NOC chief says oil output at 1.2mln BPD (vs 1.163mln BPD reported in September due to power issues).
  • Spot gold is bolstered by the USD’s retreat and has surpassed the 10-DMA but met resistance thereafter around USD 1650/oz amid the constructive risk tone.
  • Base metals are firmer across the board on the China reports, with LME copper briefly extending past USD 7.6k/T for instance.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB President Lagarde said they have not reached the destination on rates yet and reiterated that the ECB is committed to doing whatever it takes to get inflation back to the 2% target, while she added that inflation is too high throughout the eurozone and the possibility of a recession has increased.
  • Europe is set for mild weather in November, via Bloomberg citing forecasters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • German Import Prices YY (Sep) 29.8% vs. Exp. 31.0% (Prev. 32.7%); MM (Sep) -0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 46.2 vs. Exp. 45.8 (Prev. 45.8)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • WSJ’s Timiraos reiterates that another 75bps FOMC rate rise is likely this week as the pace of future moves takes the spotlight.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is firmer but in contained ranges above the USD 20k mark, while more pronounced upside is seen in the likes of ETH and Dogecoin.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region shrugged off the losses on Wall St and with Chinese Caixin PMI data not as bad as feared, although some cautiousness remained ahead of the looming risk events.
  • ASX 200 finished positive with all sectors in the green after the RBA rate decision whereby it stuck to a 25bps rate increase instead of reverting to a more aggressive pace.
  • Nikkei 225 eked modest gains amid a slew of earnings releases which were the catalyst for the biggest movers.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both positive with notable outperformance in Hong Kong amid a tech-led surge and bargain buying after its brief retreat beneath the 15,000 level, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI data printed better than forecast despite remaining at a contraction.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Bloomberg suggests that the gains in Chinese stocks are due to an unverified social media post that circulated online overnight that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit COVID Zero; subsequently, China’s Foreign Ministry says they are not aware of the situation.
  • Zhengzhou in C.China’s Henan said on Tue that the city will lift the temporary control for COVID-19 low-risk regions and gradually resume normal life “after over 10-day fight against the virus”, according to Global Times.
  • RBA hiked the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 2.85%, as expected. RBA said the board remains resolute in determination to return inflation to the target and expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, as well as reiterated that the size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. RBA also noted that the central forecast for GDP growth has been revised down a little with growth of around 3% expected this year and 1.5% in 2023 and 2024, while inflation is now forecast to peak at around 8% later this year and the central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 4.75% over 2023 and a little above 3% over 2024.
  • RBA Governor Lowe says the board has judged it appropriate to raise rates at a lower magnitude, will return to larger rate hikes if deemed necessary, will hold rate if the situation requires it.
  • Hong Kong Exchange is to to cut trading tariff on cash market to boost market efficiency, effective 1st Jan 2023.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.1)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 75.72 PTS OR 2.62%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 768.25OR 5.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 91.46 PTS OR 0.33%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.63%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2586 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.2627//    /Oil UP TO 88.33, dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.69    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/RUSSIA

The anti Russian alliance breaks after Japan decides to stay in the Russian Sakhalin one energy project with Exxon

(zerohedge)

Anti-Russian Alliance Fractures After Japan Decides To Stay In Russia’s Sakhalin-1 Energy Project

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 06:48 AM

While Europe continues the unvarnished hypocrisy of pretending it is imposing draconian sanctions against Russian oil and gas, when instead it is merely buying the country’s natural resources via such middlemen as India and China (an exercise in virtue signaling that costs it a 20% mark-up to Russian prices), less than a year since the start of the Ukraine war, some countries have had enough of pretending.

Today, the Japanese government decided to officially screw the sanctions, and remain involved in the (formerly Exxon-led) Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia, as it seeks a stable supply of energy (who doesn’t) despite international sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, the Nikkei reported.

ExxonMobil, which held a 30% stake in Sakhalin-1, announced in March that it would withdraw from the project. But after vacillating for more than half a year, Japan decided not to follow in Exxon’s footsteps.

Meanwhile, Russia set up a new company to take over the project under a presidential decree that has in effect forced investors to choose sides. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is a stakeholder in Tokyo-based Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development — which owns 30% of Sakhalin-1’s current operator – along with other investors including Itochu, Japan Petroleum Exploration and Marubeni.

The Japanese consortium will make a final decision on whether to stay invested in the project after discussions with other stakeholders.

Why does this matter? Well, back in may, the G-7 nations decided to ban imports of Russian crude oil. Although the G-7 did not decide on a time frame, saying only that the ban will be enforced in a “timely and orderly fashion,” Japan’s continued participation in Sakhalin-1 would go against the consensus among fellow G-7 members.

In short, Japan would be the first “western” nation to officially breach the anti-Russia alliance.

Of course, there are reason: Japan relies on the Middle East for 95% of its crude imports, and sees ownership in Russian projects as essential to ensuring a stable supply of energy. But then again, one can say the same of most of the developed world, and certainly all of Europe, where Russian energy commodities serve as the basis for comfortable, modern life.

On October 7, Vladimir Putin signed a decree transferring Sakhalin-1 to a newly established company, which was registered on Oct. 14. Stakeholders in the project were given one month to decide whether to invest in the new company, and relevant Japanese agencies, including the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, have been considering their options. They have now decided.

A unit of Russian state oil company Rosneft is expected to operate Sakhalin-1 after ExxonMobil. Rosneft and India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp. each previously held 20% of the project.

As a result of the chaos, operations at Sakhalin-1 have been virtually shut down, and Japan has imported no oil originating from the project recently, so losing its stake will not have an immediate impact on the country’s fuel supply.

Russia has transferred operations of the Sakhalin-2 natural gas project to a new company as well. Japanese investors Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. decided to retain their stakes in the project, and their continued investment has been approved by the Russian government.

Translation: the upcoming G-20 will be rather awkward as Japan’s PM Fumio Kushida, an anchor pillar of the G7 in Asia, may decide to sit at the table next the Xi and Putin.

END

3c CHINA

CHINA

Probably a false rumour that China will exit COVID zero policy.  The rumour was shot down by Chinese government but still stocks skyrocket

(zerohedge)

Chinese Stocks Erupt On Covid Zero Exit Social Media Rumor

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 07:17 AM

Chinese stocks rebounded from extremely oversold territories amid speculation Beijing is preparing to roll back the draconian Covid Zero policy. The country’s Foreign Ministry denied such reports. 

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as much as 7% intraday, rebounding from their lowest levels since 2005 after unverified social media posts circulated a rumor about reopening the economy. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged as much as 9%, the most significant intraday move since April on the speculation. 

“Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen,” Twitter account “Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA” tweeted. 

Chinese equity indexes pared gains after China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said he was unaware of any committee preparing to end the Covid-zero strategy. 

“I’m not surprised by the rumor circulating online about a conditional reopening,” Liu Xiaodong, a fund manager at Shanghai Power Asset Management Co., told Bloomberg.

China stocks were in a severe rout last week after the Communist Party congress granted President Xi Jinping a third term. Stocks panic crashed the most since 2008 GFC on fears of Xi’s power consolidation and continuation of economically damaging Covid-zero policies. 

Meanwhile, last week, JPMorgan’s strategist Marko Kolanovic urged investors to buy the dip in Chinese stocks even though Xi’s tightening grip on power will exact a heavy toll on free enterprise and economic growth. 

The reopening speculation also led to a jump in Chinese stocks listed in the US. KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund is up more than 7% premarket, while shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Pinduoduo Inc., and JD.com Inc. are up between 6-8% premarket. 

Any confirmation about reopening by authorities could result in a more sustainable upside for Chinese stocks and strengthen the yuan. 

“One must be cautious about investing on speculation, particularly because much positive speculation about China Internet in recent months has proven unfounded,” said Adam Montanaro, investment director of global emerging-market equities at Abrdn.

CHINA//USA

China lashes out at USA’s export curbs.

(zerohedge)

China Lashes Out At Export Curbs In Blinken Call, Says US “Blinded By Ideology”

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 08:45 PM

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi lashed out over US export curbs in a Sunday phone call with his US counterpart Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The tense call underscored that significant obstacles remain as the two sides continue preparing for a potential Biden and Xi Jinping face-to-face meeting next month.

“The U.S. side should stop its containment and suppression of China and not create new obstacles to bilateral relations,” Wang said, base on a foreign ministry statement. “The US side introduced new export controls against China, restricting investments in China, seriously violating free-trade principles and seriously harming China’s legitimate rights and interests, which must be corrected.”

Additionally, per state media: “China’s diplomatic and domestic policies are open and transparent, and the US should not be blinded by ideology,” Wang said. The US was generally once again accused of suppressing China’s economic growth. 

It was the first direct contact since Wang became China’s top-ranked diplomat, having been promoted to the Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo during its major meeting earlier this month. 

Biden’s first ever sit-down meeting as president with President Xi is likely to happen at the Group of 20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia in mid-November. Washington efforts to restrict Chinese access to chipmaking technology, which it appears was a top pressing issue raised with Blinken by Wang, will likely be brought up by Xi as an area of deep contention later.

As for the US readout of the call, Blinken said the two agreed upon the need to “maintain open lines of communication” – with two main foreign policy issues also raised: Ukraine and Haiti. “The Secretary raised Russia’s war against Ukraine and the threats it poses to global security and economic stability,” an official US readout said. “The Secretary also noted the deteriorating humanitarian and security situation in Haiti and the need for continued coordinated action in support of the Haitian people.”

Currently, the US is attempting to put together a UN coalition that can lead a peace-keeping force into restive Haiti, at a moment the US-backed Acting President Ariel Henry is battling armed groups seeking his removal from power. China and Russia have signaled they would veto such a resolution at the UN Security Council, seeing in it another attempt at US-Western intervention in a foreign country’s internal affairs.

As for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Xi while entering a third term as China’s most powerful leader in decades is expected to deepen relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As a further sign of China’s growing willingness to stand behind Moscow even while Putin faces unprecedented global isolation over the war…

Last week, Reuters cited Wang’s words describing Beijing’s future outlook on its relationship with Russia as follows, “China is willing to deepen its relationship with Russia in all levels and any attempt to block the progress of the two nations will never succeed.”

“It is the legitimate right of China and Russia to realise their development and revitalisation, Wang Yi said in a telephone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov,” the report noted.

end 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

UK warns about a cold winter as the warm weather spell is set to end

(zerohedge)

UK Warns About Cold Winter As Warm Spell Set To End

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 02:45 AM

While many parts of Europe, from Germany and France to the UK, enjoy unseasonably warm weather, a new three-month forecast indicates the increasing possibility that ‘Old Man Winter’ is set to move in. 

Bloomberg reports UK’s Met Office’s three-month outlook shows a colder-than-normal winter is ahead. The forecast said there’s a 25% chance the season will be cold, a 60% chance of it being around average, and 15% of it being mild. 

“The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” the forecasts said.

Warm weather has been an important factor in plunging natural gas prices across Europe. Dutch natural gas futures, Europe’s benchmark, have fallen more than 70% since late August to 92.50 euros per megawatt-hour. 

We wrote a note a little more than a week ago titled “Germany May Stave Off Worst Of Energy Crisis As Mild Temps Forecast Through Mid-November.”

However, abnormally warm weather is set to dissipate by mid-November across North West Europe and be more in line with 30-year averages. 

Colder weather is also ahead for Germany. 

And the UK. 

The good news is EU NatGas storage is 94% full despite reduced NatGas shipments from Russia. Shipments via Ukraine are one of the last remaining Russian supply lines to western Europe after the bombing of Nord Stream pipelines. The US is set to ramp up LNG shipments this winter. 

“The weather is quickly becoming a major factor as an unusually hot October kept gas demand in check across Europe and brought some relief for policymakers. The start of the heating season has been pushed back, allowing more gas to be injected into storage sites. The safety buffer could play a key role when the temperatures do drop, and consumption picks up again,” Bloomberg said. 

Even with NatGas storage levels above a 10-year average for this time of year, colder weather in the second half of November could start drawing on inventories — and at some point, NatGas prices will reverse. 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA

Biden loses temper with Zelensky after the Ukrainian leader wants more aid

(zerohedge)

Biden Lost Temper In Zelensky Phone Call: “Show A Little More Gratitude” 

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 06:05 PM

Days after the Pentagon announced that total US military aid given to Ukraine so far has topped $18.5 billion, new reporting has revealed President Joe Biden briefly lost his temper in a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, after the latter kept pressing for more money and arms.

NBC has cited four officials familiar with a phone call which took place in June, who revealed for the first time on Monday“Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in U.S. military assistance for Ukraine when Zelenskyy started listing all the additional help he needed and wasn’t getting.”

At that point, “Biden lost his temper, the people familiar with the call said.” Not only has Washington handed Kyiv a record amount of military aid, but tens of more billions in humanitarian funding as well, as the country struggles to keep the lights on and keep civil services active amid mounting wartime debt as the Russian invasion continues. 

President Biden, reportedly showing his irritation, explained to Zelensky in that prior phone call, “The American people were being quite generous, and his administration and the U.S. military were working hard to help Ukraine, he said, raising his voice, and Zelenskyy could show a little more gratitude.”

The report followed by citing one source who said additionally that “Biden was direct with Zelensky” and reminded him that defense aid must be handled through the appropriate military channels. 

According to more from NBC, the two leaders’ communications have since improved

Administration officials said Biden and Zelenskyy’s relationship has only improved since the June phone call, after which Zelenskyy made a statement praising the U.S. for its generous assistance. But the clash reflects Biden’s early awareness that both congressional and public support for sending billions of dollars to Ukraine could begin to fade. That moment has arrived just as the president prepares to ask Congress to greenlight even more money for Ukraine.

Perhaps the two getting past those prior June tensions was the result of the White House continuing to essentially sign off on whatever Ukraine asks for. 

Last month, Zelensky boasted in a CBS “Face the Nation” interview that Washington is providing him with a whopping $1.5 billion per month for state coffers as the country piles up a large war-time deficit. 

“The United States gives us $1.5 billion every month to support our budget to fight” against Russia the Ukrainian leader explained, but pointed out there remains “a deficit of $5 billion in our budget.” Of course, in that interview he immediately pivoted to repeating Kyiv’s longtime complaint that it’s not enough – because it’s never enough, apparently.

end

IRAN

Iran seizes another foreign fuel tanker in the Persian Gulf

(zerohedge)

Iran’s IRGC Seizes Foreign Fuel Tanker In Persian Gulf

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 07:25 PM

Iran’s military has seized a foreign-flagged tanker on suspicion of illegal smuggling operations, state media announced Monday.

While the tanker or flag it is flying under hasn’t been identified by Tehran authorities, it was said to be carrying 2.9 million gallons of “smuggled fuel” – worth an estimated $6.6 millionaccording to a statement of an Iranian official. 

The country’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) boarded and took control of the vessel in the Persian Gulf. Tehran has long complained about and tried to crackdown on what it has described as persistent smuggling of its oil and fuel to Gulf states.

“The captain and crew of this foreign tanker are also detained as investigations and legal procedures are being completed,” Iran’s judiciary chief of the southern province of Hormozgan, Mojtaba Ghahremani, said in a video address.

“All vessels which have delivered fuel to the violating tanker will also be subject to prosecution,” Ghahremani added.

State media showed a clip of the seized vessel with IRGC operatives approaching it. This practice of intercepting foreign vessels in the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway has put Iran’s navy on a crash course with the US military presence in the region. Of late, the IRGC has sought to seize US sea drones in the region.

Interestingly, Iran is further alleging that smugglers seek to steal national assets with the help of foreigners

“The criminal acts by fuel smugglers who plunder national assets in coordination with foreigners will not be hidden from the sight of Judiciary officials and officers, and the perpetrators of such crimes will be punished severely and without leniency,” Ghahremani said additionally in his statement, according to PressTV.

END

SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN

Saudi Arabia on high alert after warning of an imminent Iranian attack

(zerohedge)

Saudis Arabia, US On High Alert After Warning Of Imminent Iranian Attack; US Prepared To Respond

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 12:35 PM

With oil prices set to soar after the midterms as the SPR drain ends and markets no longer have desperate democrats to help fulfill their immediate energy needs, moments ago the WSJ unveiled another potential oil price powder keg, so to speak, when it reported that according to Saudi and U.S. officials, Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom, putting the American military and others in the Middle East on an elevated alert level.

The report goes on to note that Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September.

In response to the warning, Saudi Arabia – which until recently was on the Biden admin “naughty list” after the crown prince snubbed Biden’s demands for no OPEC+ output cut – the U.S. and several other neighboring states have raised the level of alert for their military forces, the officials said. They didn’t provide more details on the Saudi intelligence.

Separately, the White House National Security Council said it was concerned about the warnings and ready to respond if Iran carried out an attack.

“We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis,” said a National Security Council spokesperson. “We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region.”

It wasn’t exactly clear how attacking Saudi Arabia and launching a war with a far better armed opponent would “distract attention” from Iran’s internal troubles, but what is very clear is that if Saudi Arabia wanted to send the oil price soaring, it wouldn’t use another OPEC+ cut but would simply take production offline indefinitely; and if it can arrange Iran to help out… well, why not.

Iran has allegedly attacked northern Iraq with dozens of ballistic missiles and armed drones in recent weeks, one of which was shot down by a U.S. warplane as it headed toward the city of Erbil, where American troops are based. Tehran has publicly blamed Iranian Kurdish separatist groups based there for fomenting the unrest at home.

Iranian authorities have also publicly accused Saudi Arabia, along with the U.S. and Israel, of instigating the demonstrations.

While there is no indication at this point that this report is anything more than just Intel agency jawboning and propaganda, if it does in fact escalate into another Persian Gulf powder keg, watch how high the price of oil will shoot to.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

We brought this to your attention in earlier commentaries but it is worth repeating: a potential lethal new strain of COVID was created in a London lab

(Watson/SummitNews)

Potentially Lethal New Super Strain Of COVID Created In London Lab; Report

https://WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM/COVID-19/POTENTIALLY-LETHAL-NEW-SUPER-STRAIN-COVID-CREATED-LONDON-LAB-REPOR

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A potentially deadly new strain of COVID has been created in a University lab in London, according to a report.

The Daily Mail reports that researchers at Imperial College London have hybridised the original Wuhan strain of the disease with both the Omicron or Delta variants separately.

The College is yet to reveal how effective the strain they have created is, and has denied that the work constitutes gain of function, the process now widely believed to have been responsible for the original strain in Wuhan.

Molecular biology expert Dr. Richard Ebright warned that the new mutant strain, which was injected into hamsters in London, “is insanity, both in terms of the redundancy and waste,” and that it has zero “foreseeable practical applications.”

“This should be a wake-up call,” the biologist urged, adding “If the world wishes to avoid new pandemic waves and pandemics caused by lab-generated enhanced potential pandemic pathogens, then it is urgently necessary to restrict senseless high-risk, low-benefit research that creates enhanced potential pandemic pathogens and to implement effective national oversight, with force of law, on such research.”

Dr. Ebright further warned that the development is huge “especially, in terms of the risk of triggering a new pandemic wave upon accidental or deliberate release of the laboratory-generated viruses.”

The development comes after Boston University created a new strain with an 80 percent KILL RATE in a similar fashion.

A former director of the Israeli Government’s Institute for Biological Research, Professor Shmuel Shapira, described the research as “playing with fire.” 

Last week, a new interim report released by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions concluded that the origins of Covid-19 more likely than not came from a “research-related incident,” rather than “natural zoonotic spillover.”

“While precedent of previous outbreaks of human infections from contact with animals favors the hypothesis that a natural zoonotic spillover is responsible for the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident,” the report states, while conceding that “This conclusion is not intended to be dispositive.”

*  *  *

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//CANADA

Alberta;s new premier, Danielle Smith is refusing to associate with the WEF and any of their policies much to the anger of Trudeau and other globalists.

(zerohedge)

Alberta’s New Premier Under Attack For Refusing To Associate With WEF

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 10:05 PM

Recently noted as an opponent of vaccine and mask mandates, new Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is breaking previously established ties with the World Economic Forum, which has been deeply involved in a “health consulting agreement” revolving around the province’s covid response.

“I find it distasteful when billionaires brag about how much control they have over political leaders,” Smith said at a news conference Monday after her new cabinet was sworn in. “That is offensive … the people who should be directing government are the people who vote for them.”

The United Conservative Party premier said she is in lockstep with federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has stated he and his caucus will having nothing to do with the World Economic Forum.  Earlier this month, on her first day as premier, Smith stated that people not vaccinated against covid are the most discriminated group she has seen in her lifetime.  

In response, the Canadian mainstream media is pursuing a thorough hatchet campaign against Smith, consistently referring to all opposition to the WEF as being based in “conspiracy theory.”  As they say, if you want to know who is really in power, all you have to do is find out who you are not allowed to criticize.

After two years of authoritarian lockdowns and attempts to enforce vaccine passports in Canada, Alberta was one of the only regions in the country that asserted political opposition to executive dictates.  This helped to support the anti-passport protests by truckers and other Canadians, and led to Justin Trudeau using provisions for terrorism to confiscate donations to the movement.  Alberta’s covid averages in terms of infections and deaths are no worse than provinces with strict mandates, proving once again that the mandates achieved nothing in terms of safety, but everything in terms of control.

The Canadian Press and other media outlets claim that criticism of the WEF is built on “online conspiracy accusations, unproven and debunked, that the forum is fronting a global cabal of string-pullers exploiting the pandemic to dismantle capitalism and introduce damaging socialist systems and social control measures, such as forcing people to take vaccines with tracking chips.”

Every “conspiracy” noted in that statement is true – none of them have been “debunked” except perhaps the “tracking chip” claim, which is unnecessary because the WEF was already encouraging governments to use cell phone tracking apps to monitor the vaccine status and movements of their respective populations.  Many of these apps were approved by the CDC in the US, and in countries like China they are mandatory.

The World Economic Forum, acting as a kind of globalist think-tank for future policy initiatives, was instrumental in promoting many of the failed restrictions used by various national governments during the pandemic.  

WEF head Klaus Schwab specifically mentions in his writings that the institution saw covid as a perfect “opportunity” to implement what he calls the “Great Reset” which includes the concept of the “Shared Economy,” a global socialist technocracy meant to replace free markets and end capitalism as we know it.  As the WEF states, you will “own nothing, have no privacy” and you will like it.

This is not conspiracy theory.  This is openly admitted conspiracy fact.  It is undeniable. 

The use of the “conspiracy theory” label is generally a tactic designed to circumvent fair debate based on facts and evidence.  If the Canadian Press was forced to defend their position based on the information at hand, they would lose.  So, they instead try to inoculate their readers to opposing arguments by calling them “conspiracy theory” in the hope that those readers will never research the information further.  

The Canadian media then cites quotations that specifically argue that not working with the WEF would put the Alberta public at a disadvantage because it would cut them off from information that the WEF provides.  

It’s important to mention that there is no evidence that the WEF has provided any life saving health information to date concerning the covid pandemic.  In fact, there is no evidence that the WEF is useful to the Canadian public in any way.  The mainstream media’s bizarre and antagonistic reaction to Smith’s shunning of a foreign organization of elitists that has no loyalty to the Canadian citizenry suggests that they may be operating from a foundation of bias.     

Danielle Smith’s bravery in cutting off WEF influence from Alberta is being met with a dishonest media response, but in the long run, she is making the best decision possible.  Taking advice from a potential parasite is not good leadership. 

end

Robert Hryniak10:49 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

Three cheers for Danielle Smith for giving the finger to the WEF and their globalist agenda of populace dominance and control. Whether she succeeds or not she is standing up against tyranny and agenda which does not serve the public interest. 

These same nut-bars at the WEF hope to implant a chip in people’s brains to understand individual behavior and thoughts to have control. And in this quest they will fail like all the other fools that tried and in the process will destroy countless lives in their failed ideology.

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Why has the COVID gene vaccine failed? Setting aside lab manufacture of COVID, possible motives, & lockdown lunatic failed responses, was the jab doomed from day 1? Systemic vs mucosal immunity is key

Mucosae: For this simple reason, one cannot expect that vaccination will inhibit airway infection. Indeed, the utter failure of the vaccines to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection is today solidly documented

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 1 SAVE▷  LISTEN 

end

Russell Gonnering: A Profound Rotting Evil has entered medicine. Unless it is decisively and completely excised it will continue to destroy our profession. We now have so-called medical ethicistswho proclaim publicly that it is a moral duty to refuse care to individuals who are not “vaccinated” even though we now know vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission.DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 1 SAVE▷  LISTEN 
Emergency Room Nurse speaks out: “Vaccine Carnage In The ER”Lee Mueller shared this with me and I decided to share Gab TV; this is a very gut wrenching videoDR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 1 SAVE▷  LISTEN

VACCINE IMPACT/

VACCINE INJURY

The latest reports from Slay News
Bill Gates & WEF Staged Pandemic ‘Simulation’ Just before Covid HitShortly before COVID-19 first emerged in 2019, Bill Gates’s organization and Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF) staged a coronavirus pandemic “simulation” event, according to reports.READ MORE
‘2000 Mules’ Investigators Arrested by U.S Marshals for Refusing to Reveal SourceThe two investigators behind the “2000 Mules” election fraud film have been arrested by U.S. Marshals, according to reports.READ MORE
Bubba Wallace Greeted with Loud Boos from NASCAR Fans during First Race after Suspension“Woke” NASCAR driver Bubba Wallace got a rude welcome back from fans during his first race after serving a suspension for attacking rival Kyle Larson.READ MORE
Texas Mom Opens Fire on Home Intruder to Save Children, Sends Him Running A thug got a lot more than he bargained for when he targeted the home of a Texas mom and her children.READ MORE
Colorado Republican Leader Hugh McKean Dies Suddenly of Heart Attack at 55Colorado’s Republican House Minority Leader Hugh McKean has died suddenly at his home after suffering an unexpected heart attack, according to the late lawmaker’s family.READ MORE
UK Scientists Use ‘Gain-of-Function’ to Create Deadly Mutant Covid StrainScientists in the United Kingdom have used dangerous “gain-of-function” research to create a deadly mutant strain of COVID-19, according to reports.READ MORE
Grammy Award-Winner with Hit Song about Saying ‘What You Wanna Say’ Quits Twitter over Elon MuskGrammy award-winning artist Sara Bareilles, who had a hit song about being “brave” enough to “say what you wanna say,” has quit Twitter over Elon Musk’s pledge to restore free speech on the platform.READ MORE
Top Democrat Prosecutors Warn ‘Woke’ Criminal Justice Reform Law Will ‘Destroy’ IllinoisTop Democrat prosecutors are warning that Illinois’ new “woke” criminal justice reform law will “tie the hands” of law enforcement and “destroy” the state.READ MORE
Elon Musk to Charge ‘Blue Check’ Users a Monthly Fee, Keep Twitter Free for Everyone ElseTwitter’s new owner and CEO is planning to start charging “blue check” users a monthly fee to display the verification badge on their accounts, according to reports.READ MORE
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Beaten by Corrupt Socialist Lula in Presidential ElectionBrazil’s conservative President Jair Bolsonaro has been beaten in the nation’s presidential election by the notoriously corrupt far-left socialist challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

War; Economic War; War; Military; War; Economic War – Do You Spot A Pattern?

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 09:50 AM

by Michael Every of Rabobank

The times are not just a-changin’ – they have changed. Let’s take six of the top seven headlines in the Financial Times this morning in Asia as Exhibit A:

  • ‘Biden claims oil companies are ‘war profiteering’ as he floats windfall tax’
  • ‘The Long View. Is Europe winning the gas war with Russia?’
  • ‘Military Briefing: Russia and Ukraine prepare for the rigours of winter war’
  • ‘The Big Read. Egypt and the IMF: will Sisi take the economy out of the military’s hands?’
  • ‘The nuclear threats that hang over the world’
  • ‘Live news updates: Putin says grain deal ‘suspended’ not terminated’’

Do you spot a pattern? War; economic war; war; military; war; economic war. Are you incorporating them into your forecasts? I can assure you that the vast majority of analysts still aren’t because this is apparently ‘exogenous’. If so, what is endogenous is irrelevant. Anyway, on we go into those murky waters, via a mini-edition of the Global D’Oily.

The White House has come out all guns blazing against Big Oil, calling them war profiteers (which the US is no stranger to: **cough** The 2003 Iraq War **cough**), and threatening windfall taxes. President Biden gave a public address and specifically tweeted that: “The oil industry has a choice. Either invest in America by lowering prices for consumers at the pump and increasing production and refining capacity. Or pay a higher tax on your excessive profits and face other restrictions.” Recall when in 2016 I talked of geopolitical ‘Thin Ice’ we could fall through, after which markets would no longer operate the way they used to? Well, it wasn’t just about tariffs: the US is now laying down the law to not only the Russian energy industry, but its own.

Public anger at firms making huge profits during periods of high inflation and low growth is understandable: just wait for high unemployment too and then see how angry the atmosphere gets. Yet saying a private firm can make a fixed % return on the nominally-priced volume of a product it sells –until it exceeds an unclear threshold that is no longer “a fair return on hard work”– is not neoliberal laissez-faire. The last time we saw that in the US was 1980. (And if we saw it again now, who might be next, as commodity trading house profits echo those of Big Oil?)

The way the tweet is worded, could we see the use of the Defence Production Act to force Big Oil to build more refineries, which will take years to come on line, or key pipelines, including the one which the White House put the kybosh on early in this administration? The industry itself claims aggressive federal regulations aimed at preventing it growing, and in favour of a green transition, are the real culprit. Or is Big Oil expected to directly subsidise energy prices from current profits, as well as to increase production against a backdrop of lower prices? Or might we see export bans, which would make energy cheap in the US, but extortionate elsewhere? Or is this just a sham?

Since the news broke, oil has failed to fall back – which is what has happened in most other economies where governments lean on their energy sectors to “step up” and help the public by “lowering prices at the pump”. Indeed, the Saudis are still pressing ahead with their 500km-long, glass-walled, linear city called Neom, which looks like something from Logan’s Run. (But, I suspect, won’t age as well as the inhabitants of that movie’s city.)

That is despite the looming COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, who got that FT mention today, and are hosting the Green Team while building a new Pharaonic capital city that includes a vast public park in the middle of a desert, backed by earnings from LNG exports. Saint Greta of Thunberg says she, like UK PM Sunak, will not be attending this year because, in so many words, she sees it as ‘Sham el-Chic’ (hat tip to Michael Magdovitz for that one).   

Also in the energy mix, the US is to exempt Russian oil loaded before 5 December from its price cap (just to clarify, that’s a price cap on Russian, not US oil), with a deadline of 19 January 2023 before it is imposed on unloaded cargo. How this will all work out in practice also remains to be seen. Sham is very much the word on the energy street.

More deliberate shambles, 90% of Kyiv is now reportedly without running water and/or electricity – and winter is coming. Are we really going to see a modern European city of millions having to see its population melt snow with firewood to get by? Perhaps, yes; or millions of refugees.

On the upside, several ships departed from Ukraine laden with grain yesterday despite the Russian threat of a blockade: that’s some relief for food prices, if so – but let’s wait and see.

Yet given the Eurozone inflation numbers yesterday –October headline CPI was 1.5% m-o-m, taking the y-o-y rate up to a record high of 10.7% vs. consensus estimates of 10.3%, and even core CPI was 5.0% y-o-y– there may yet be some other Europeans having to rely on firewood in 2023 too.

Sadly, those who think of this is as ‘exogenous’ sadly includes ECB President Lagarde, who gave an interview on Irish television in which she stated the “energy crisis is causing massive inflation,” and that said inflation came from “pretty much nowhere.

I guess that’s true if you don’t understand the real physical economy, or economic theory, or economic history, or geopolitics, which is true of most of the economics trade. They too specialise in Sham el-Chic

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

A dangerous escalation as the uSA deploys six nuclear capable B 52 bombers to Australia and lcose to the Chinese shores

(zerohedge)

“Dangerous Escalation”: US To Deploy Six Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers To Australia

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 11:25 PM

America’s great power competition against China is gaining momentum as the Pentagon plans to deploy a fleet of nuclear-capable B-52 bombers in northern Australia in what is being dubbed a “signal” to Beijing, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported. 

“Having bombers that could range and potentially attack mainland China could be very important in sending a signal to China that any of its actions over Taiwan could also expand further,” Centre for New American Security’s Becca Wasser told the ABC. 

The Australian broadcaster’s current affairs show, Four Corners, revealed the US documents detailing up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers were set for deployment at the Tindal air base, south of Darwin in Australia’s Northern Territory. The airbase would also receive $100 million in upgrades for the maintenance and parking areas for the bombers, expected to be finished by 2026. 

“The ability to deploy US Air Force bombers to Australia sends a strong message to adversaries about our ability to project lethal air power,” the US Air Force told Four Corners.

Meanwhile, Greens Senator David Shoebridge tweeted: 

“This is a dangerous escalation. It makes Australia an even bigger part of the global nuclear weapons threat to humanity’s very existence — and by rising military tensions it further destabilises our region.” 

The long-range heavy bombers send a clear “signal to the Chinese” that the Americans and its allies are “planning for a war with China,” Richard Tanter, a senior research associate at the Nautilus Institute and anti-nuclear activist, explained to Four Corners. 

A recent op-ed in the Australian Financial Review titled “Australia’s alliances in Asia are a tale of two regions” points out that the Biden administration’s chip restrictions on China to crush its technological capabilities “is unambiguously a new cold war.” He said Australia has a complicated juggling act of catering to its top trading partner China and its top security partner, the US, while Washington pressures Canberra and other countries in the region to distance themselves from Beijing.

Besides the bombers, Australia, the UK, and the US recently announced a new security deal known as AUKUS, allowing the Australian military to procure a fleet of nuclear submarines by 2040. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian responded to the news Monday and wasn’t all too thrilled:

“The US’s move escalates regional tensions, gravely undermines regional peace and stability, and may trigger an arms race in the region.” 

The US military’s expanding footprint in northern Australia shows Washington’s quest to build a ‘friends circle’ of bombers and stealth fighter jets around China. 

end

BRAZIL

Bolsonaro still has not yet conceded as supporters block roads

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bolsonaro-supporters-block-roads-brazilian-president-silent-after-election-loss

Bolsonaro Supporters Block Roads As Brazilian President Silent After Election Loss

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 08:25 AM

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has still not acknowledged his loss with any public statements over a day after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was declared winner of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election held Sunday.

Local media says President Bolsonaro, who is now expected to leave office by January 1st, has not so much as issued any official comments to government ministers. Lula da Silva said in front of a crowd of supporters while celebrating the historic win Sunday night, “Anywhere else in the world, the president who lost would have called me by now and conceded.”

Lula said he remains “part happy, part worried” about the transfer of power, given that “He still hasn’t called, I don’t know if he will and I don’t know if he will concede.”

As we detailed earlier, already many world leaders including those previously considered key global allies of Bolsonaro have called to offer their congratulations to Lula, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, among many others, as well as US President Joe Biden. 

CNN notes that the formal process of certifying the vote is underway: “It is Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court that officially validates election results and communicates them to the Senate, Chamber of Deputies and State Assemblies.”

However that validation process is not completed yet: “A press officer for the Electoral Court told CNN that the vote’s results are already considered validated, since the court’s declaration of the outcome on Sunday. A court session at a later point will formally confirm the win, but no date has been set for it yet, he said,” according to the CNN report. 

Protests by Bolsonaro supporters against the election results – which saw Lula receive 50.9% to Bolsonaro’s 49.10% of the vote – have popped up reportedly in more than 100 locations

Bolsonaro supporters are claiming the election was “stolen”…

BBC reports Tuesday morning, “Lorry drivers in Brazil loyal to President Jair Bolsonaro have blocked roads across the country, after his poll defeat to leftist rival Lula.” The report describes, “Blockages were reported in all but two states, causing considerable disruption and affecting food supply chains.” And more:

By Monday night, the federal highway police reported 342 such incidents, with the biggest protests going on in the country’s south. Some of the blockages were later cleared by police.

…Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes on Monday ordered the police to disperse the roadblocks immediately. He warned that all those still blocking the roads on Tuesday would be each fined 100,000 Brazilian reals (£16,700: $19,300) per hour.

Bolsonaro has recently expressed concern over the potential for the country’s voting machines to be manipulated or tampered with, something that his political opponents have dismissed as “Trump-style” election denial rhetoric. 

Into Tuesday morning, nothing has been posted to Bolsonaro’s official social media accounts since the night before Sunday’s vote.

His last last tweet came shortly before midnight on the eve of the election. He quoted from the Bible, the book of Ephesians, which says “Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil…”. Some are taking this as a sign he could be readying to not go down without a political fight contesting the election results.

The New York Times is meanwhile reporting that Presient Bolsonaro is expected to give a speech on Tuesday, but it’s unclear when or precisely what he will say.

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.9945 UP    0.0059 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 147.03   DOWN  1.713 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1559 UP   0.0092

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 75.72 PTS OR 2.62% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  UP 768.25 POINTS OR 5.23% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.63%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 768.26 PTS OR 5.25%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 75,72 PTS OR 2.62%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.63% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 91.46 PTS OR 0.338%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1655.50

silver:$19.94

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 110.65 UP 0.77 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.12% DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% UP  1 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.25  DOWN 6   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.125%  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98750  DOWN  .0010   or 10 basis points//

USA/Japan: 148.08 DOWN .664 OR YEN UP 664 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1465 DOWN .0005 OR  5 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0026 OR 26 BASIS pts  to 1.3638

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(UP) AT 7.2774

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.2919

TURKISH LIRA:  18.62  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at  4.068% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.114 DOWN 9  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 111.44 UP 2 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 84.74 PTS OR  1.34%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 72.23 POINTS OR 0.55%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 56.51 PTS OR 0.91% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.80 OR  0.53%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 123.44 PTS OR  0.54%

WTI Oil price 88.10 12: EST

Brent Oil:  94.38   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.24 UP 0  AND 24/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.125

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9879 DOWN .0007    OR  7  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1482 UP  .0015 or  15 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.464% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148,22 DOWN0.504//YEN UP 51 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3625 UP 0.0014  (CDN dollar, DOWN 14 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 88.37

Brent OIL:  94.53

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.063%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.125%

USA dollar index:111.41 DOWN .02 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.58

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.24  UP 0 AND  24/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 79.75 PTS OR 0.24 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 116.62 PTS OR 1.02%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.20 DOWN 0.18 PTS (0.70)%

GLD: $153.46 UP 1.53 OR 1.01%

SLV/ $18.05  UP $0.43 OR 2.445%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Stocks Battered As ‘Good’ JOLTS Print Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Weak ISM and PMI data (and a big drop in prices within them) was shrugged off by the market which focused on a notable headline JOLTS beat (a two-month-old metric that’s likely manipulated ahead of the midterms) sparking a ‘good news is bad news’ reaction in markets, punching rate-trajectory expectations dramatically more hawkish just a day ahead of the FOMC decision. The market is now pricing in a cycle-high terminal of 5.06%…

Source: Bloomberg

And while tomorrow’s 75bps hike is a lock, the odds of a 75bps hike in Dec jumped today and the odds of a 50bps hike in Feb also jumped notably today…

Source: Bloomberg

There was one weird headline today (that sparked consternation among many Fed watchers) as White House economic advisor was interviewed on Bloomberg TV and told the anchor that “President Biden has endorsed The Fed’s policy pivot.” Did Bernstein just front-run tomorrow’s announcement? How does Bernstein know that Powell is pivoting given that the FOMC meeting just started? Is Bernstein explicitly signalling to pressure Powell and the independent Fed to ‘pivot’?

No, none of the above, Bloomberg headline writers ‘corrected’ their report to note that Bernstein was merely confirming that Biden endorsed The Fed’s pivot to tightening this year. Pretty big difference there, Bloomberg!

US equity market had been grinding higher overnight but puked on the JOLTS data and Nasdaq extended losses while Small Caps caught a BTFD bid back into the green…

AMZN was ugly today, losing as much today as it did after earnings last week, and falling back below $1 trillion market cap for the first time since April 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields followed a mirror path, sliding overnight then spiking dramatically on the JOLTS data. The long-bond remains a significant outperformer on the week (-2bps) while the short-end is getting slammed (+13bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields broke back below 4.00% overnight but by the close were back to unchanged at around 4.05%…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened dramatically with the 3m30Y spread inverting for the first time since 2019 and now the most inverted since April 2007 (its also the 3rd consecutive inverted close in 3m10Y)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar mirrored everything else with overnight weakness instantly reversed on the JOLTS data…

Source: Bloomberg

The Brazilian Real extended its massive short-squeeze today (to its strongest against the dollar in 7 weeks) but then faded a little after Bolsanaro’s quasi-concession. That was a 32-handle rally in 2 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin roundtripped (higher then lower) to end practically unch today…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices jumped today after the JOLTS data, ahead of tonight’s API data

NatGas prices plunged on warmer weather hopes…

Gold held on to some gains on the day after tumbling on the JOLTS data…

Finally, despite tomorrow’s huge event risk, VIX has continued to press to one-month lows, decoupling from stocks in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

As SpotGamma notes, the thing which most catches our eye this morning is IV, which continues to decline lower despite tomorrows FOMC. Below we’ve plotted VIX, VOLI, SDEX, VVVIX – they’re all at 1 month lows. Further, our RiskReversal metric remains at -0.04 which is reflecting puts being sold and/or calls being bought.

It’s always a bit surprising to us when volatility is crushed into a catalyst like FOMC. This serves to both “pull forward” some of the potential rally-fuel (via vanna) and also expose the market to more of a violent downside reaction. The point here is that its harder for well hedged markets to crash, and we’re no longer well hedged with IV readings at relative lows and the 3600 Put Wall a full 300 points lower.

So do you feel lucky again?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1587425978577555456&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbonds-stocks-battered-good-jolts-print-sends-rate-hike-odds-soaring&sessionId=fa168d7d6c20a0ad9576983a64840a449798fd02&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

Is this what happens next?

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING//AFTER HOURS

ii) USA DATA/

looks like the uSA economy is faltering badly

(zerohedge)

Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar In 2nd Best Month Of 2022, Despite Plunge In Hiring, Quits

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Less than a month after the most recent JOLTS report (for the month of August, recall JOLTS is 2-months delayed) showed a near record plunge in job openings – in line with Fed hopes for a slowing economy and the reality of the slowing labor market – moments ago the BLS, perhaps carried away by next week’s midterms and the relentless taps on the shoulder from various Biden appartchiks, reported that in September – some two months before the midterms – job openings shockingly soared by 437K from a (upward revised) 10.280MM in August (10.053MM pre-revision) to 10.717MM. This was the second highest monthly increase of 2022 and the highest since  the 511K added in March!

And with expectations of a notable drop back under 10MM, this was the third biggest beat of expectations on record!

According to the BLS, the largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services (+215,000); health care and social assistance (+115,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+111,000). The number of job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-104,000) and in finance and insurance (-83,000

Coming a time when the number of unemployed workers allegedly continue to shrink, the surge in job openings meant that we are back to 5 million more job openings (10.717MM) than unemployed people (5.753MM), just shy of the all time high 5.9 million hit in March of 2022.

This means that there were almost 2 job openings for every unemployed worker, or – alternatively – the number of workers competing for every job opening slumped again, and was down to just shy of record lows, at 0.54.

Curiously, while job openings soared, hiring tumbled and in September the BLS reported that total hires dipped to 6.082 million which was the lowest since Feb 2021.

The trend here is clear: down and to the right. According to the BLS, hires decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-57,000) and in state and local government education (-40,000).

And more bad news: the number of quits – or the “take this job and shove it” indicator – continued to deteriorate, and in Sept dropped by 123K to 4,061MM, the second lowest since July 2021.

Yet despite these two clear disappointments, the market will be focused primarily on the sharp reversal in job opening trends, and needless to say, while last month’s huge JOLTS miss sparked a frenzied rally, today’s shocking beat is not helping risk sentiment because if anything, the Fed will have to once again come out as hawkish, as the Fed’s WSJ mouthpiece was quick to remind us.

end

Manufacturing Surveys Signal Slowdown Continues; New Orders, Prices Plunge

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 10:05 AM

Despite better-than-expected US macro data in the last few weeks, the ‘soft’ survey data on the Manufacturing side of the economy has been rapidly losing momentum.

However, according to this morning’s final October print for S&P Global’s PMI, things improved throughout the month from a 49.9 (contractionary) preliminary print to a final of 50.4 (still notably down from September’s final print of 52.0). That is the weakest print since June 2020.

The ISM Manufacturing survey also printed slightly better than expected at 50.2 (50.0 exp) but was lower than the September print of 50.9. That is the weakest since May 2020.

Source: Bloomberg

This comes after the overnight session saw China and UK PMIs remain in contraction (deepening in the latter).

The PMI data showed the sharpest drop in new orders since May 2020, but on the positive side, inflationary pressures softened further.

On the ISM side none of the major components are in expansion with new orders at 49.2 and employment at 50.0, but, like PMI, prices plunged to 46.6

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories and production added very marginally to PMI…

Source: Bloomberg

ISM Respondents did not sound upbeat at all:

  • Flat business activity: continued electronics market challenges.” (Computer 8 Electronic Products]
  • Customers are canceling some orders. Inventories of finished goods increasing. Expect some bounce back as some customers may be waiting for commodity prices to decline (further).” (Chemical Products]
  • “Challenges with labor and parts delivery are easing. Order levels are slowing down after pent-up demand in the previous month.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • Growing threat of recession is making many customers slow orders substantially. Additionally, global uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine (war) is influencing global commodity markets.” (Food. Beverage 8 Tobacco Products]
  • “We have seen a general pullback in available capital budgets from our customers, and that is having a significant impact on our sales in the fourth quarter.” (Machinery]
  • Housing market is down, so our business is affected. Capacity has increased over the last two years due to high orders of consumer goods and appliances, so now we re trying promotions to get our orders up to where we can use all our capacity.” [Electrical Equipment. Appliances 8 Components]
  • Customer demand has been slower for two months. Production is decreasing our inventory and (we are) implementing forecasts carefully. The headwind seems to be very strong, so we need to be prepared for that.” (Fabricated Metal Products]
  • International conditions loom large and seem very foreboding. Overall, we still think 2023 will be a positive year, with at least some moderate growth.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • “Lead times are improving. Plastic prices are coming down.” [Plastics 8 Rubber Products]
  • “Prices are continuing a slight decline. Suppliers are trying to hold off decreases, but competition is increasing.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

Looking forward, things are bleak as output expectations for the coming 12 months weakened in October. Although still generally upbeat, the degree of confidence was the lowest since May 2020 as firms expressed concerns regarding inflation and overall demand conditions.

Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

October PMI data signalled a subdued start to the final quarter of 2022, as US manufacturers recorded a renewed and solid drop in new orders. Domestic and foreign demand weakened due to greater hesitancy among clients as prices rose further and amid dollar strength. As such, efforts to clear backlogs of work, rather than new order inflows, drove the latest upturn in production.

“Confidence in the outlook waned as underlying data also highlighted efforts to cut costs and adjust to more subdued demand conditions in the coming months. Input buying fell sharply and resilience in employment stumbled, as the pace of job creation eased to only a marginal rate.

“On a more positive note, input costs rose at the slowest pace in almost two years amid signs of reduced disruption in supply chains. Lower demand for inputs was a contributing factor to this, however. Nevertheless, softer hikes in costs were reflected in a slower uptick in output charges, as firms sought to pass on cost savings where possible to try and boost sales.”

Finally, this ISM print is important as JPMorgan warned this morning:

“The Fed may have comments on economic risks becoming more balanced between growth and inflation; in that regard, ISM numbers matter as once the US falls into contractionary territory, the market will increasingly look for a change to the Fed’s hawkish behavior.

The question is – are these ISM/PMI prints on the day the FOMC begins its deliberations enough to spook Powell into pausing or ‘stepping down’?

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

Musk neuters Twitters’ ministry of truth

(zerohedge)

Musk Neuters Twitter ‘Ministry Of Truth’ Ahead Of Midterms

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Fans of Star Trek: The Next Generation may recall the episode where extra-dimensional dickhead “Q” is stripped of his powers for spreading chaos throughout the universe.

Well, Elon Musk just did that to Twitter’s content moderation thought police with just weeks to go before midterms – cutting the number of employees who can access censorship tools from hundreds to around 15 people last week, and reducing their ability to influence discussion on the platform.

According to Bloomberg, Musk and his ‘war cabinet‘ have frozen some employee access to internal tools used for content moderation and the enforcement of other policies, neutering staff’s abilities to ‘alter or penalize accounts that break rules around misleading information, offensive posts and hate speech.’

They also won’t be able to banish highly credentialed doctors and researchers posting divergent Covid-19 narratives.

All but the most ‘high-impact violations set for manual review’ will remain on the platform, according to people familiar with the matter.

Twitter staff use dashboards, known as agent tools, to carry out actions like banning or suspending an account that is deemed to have breached policy. Detection of policy breaches can either be flagged by other Twitter users or detected automatically, but taking action on them requires human input and access to the dashboard tools. Those tools have been suspended since last week, the people said.

This restriction is part of a broader plan to freeze Twitter’s software code to keep employees from pushing changes to the app during the transition to new ownership. Typically this level of access is given to a group of people numbering in the hundreds, and that was initially reduced to about 15 people last week, according to two of the people, who asked not to be named discussing internal decisions. Musk completed his $44 billion deal to take the company private on Oct. 27. -Bloomberg

On Sunday,Twitter employees had limited access to the internal tools to police Brazil’s presidential election.

Meanwhile, the company is still using automated enforcement technology as well as third-party contractors.

The restricted ability to restrict free speech has given Twitter’s Trust and Safety Team the vapors – with employees worried that the company will be short-handed during the runup to the Nov. 8 midterm election. Recall the Trust and Safety Team was headed by now-fired Vijaya Gadde – who would have had a large role (perhaps even the final decision) to ban ZeroHedge in February, 2020 for suggesting that Covid-19 was the result of a lab leak (and that we ‘doxxed’ a Wuhan lab employee using publicly available data – aka not doxxing).

Internally, employees say, Musk has raised questions about a number of the policies, and has zeroed in on a few specific rules that he wants the team to review. The first is Twitter’s general misinformation policy, which penalizes posts that include falsehoods about topics like election outcomes and Covid-19. Musk wants the policy to be more specific, according to people familiar with the matter.

Musk has also asked the team to review Twitter’s hateful conduct policy, according to the people, specifically a section that says users can be penalized for “targeted misgendering or deadnaming of transgender individuals.” -Bloomberg

On Monday, Yoel Roth, Twitter’s head of safety and integrity, tweeted on Monday that the company was addressing an increase in offensive posts.

“Since Saturday, we’ve been focused on addressing the surge in hateful conduct on Twitter. We’ve made measurable progress, removing more than 1500 accounts and reducing impressions on this content to nearly zero,” he wrote, adding “We’re primarily dealing with a focused, short-term trolling campaign.”

In short: please seehttps://www.zerohedge.com/political/musk-neuters-twitter-ministry-truth-ahead-midterms

END

END

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

end

SWAMP STORIES

Outrage ensues after the liberal newspaper Atlantic suggests amnesty for pandemic authoritarians

we are coming close to the end..

(zerohedge)

“You Murderous Hypocrites”: Outrage Ensues After The Atlantic Suggests ‘Amnesty’ For Pandemic Authoritarians

TUESDAY, NOV 01, 2022 – 10:40 AM

The Atlantic has come under fire for suggesting that all the terrible pandemic-era decisions over lockdowns, school closures, masking, and punishing an entire class of people who questioned the efficacy and wisdom of taking a rushed, experimental vaccine – for a virus with a 99% survival rate in most, should all be water under the bridge.

We need to forgive one another for what we did and said when we were in the dark about COVID,” writes Brown Professor Emily Oster – a huge lockdown proponent, who now pleads from mercy from the once-shunned.

“Let’s acknowledge that we made complicated choices in the face of deep uncertainty, and then try to work together to build back and move forward,” she continues.

Except, they weren’t “in the dark” about Covid.  There were numerous sources pointing out the actual science that ran contrary to the mandate claims, and they were deliberately silenced by a vast media campaign.  Evidence suggests that media platforms worked in tandem with Big Tech, the CDC and the Biden Administration.  It was not a simple matter of overreaction, there was collusion to remove all counter-information.  

Nice try, Emily.

As the Daily Sceptic‘s Michael P. Senger puts it: “There’s a lot wrong here. First, no, you don’t get to advocate policies that do extraordinary harm to others, against their wishes, then say, “We didn’t know any better at the time!” Ignorance doesn’t work as an excuse when the policies involved abrogating your fellow citizens’ rights under an indefinite state of emergency, while censoring and cancelling those who weren’t as ignorant. The inevitable result would be a society in which ignorance and obedience to the opinion of the mob would be the only safe position.”

And look at that ratio:

In one epic Twitter thread, Claremont Institute Senior Fellow Matthew J. Peterson (@docMJP) excoriates Oster’s entire premise;

Hey—sorry you lost your job b/c of the vax that doesn’t work and your grandmother died alone and you couldn’t have a funeral and your brother’s business was needlessly destroyed and your kids have weird heart problems—but let’s just admit we were all wrong and call a truce, eh?

It’s too bad we shut the entire economy down & took on tyrannical powers that have never been used before in this country—looking back, you should have been able to go to church and use public parks while we let people riot in the streets—but it was a confusing time for everyone.

Hey I’m sorry we scared the hell out of you & lied for years & persecuted & censored anyone who disagreed but there was an election going on & we really wanted to beat Donald Trump so it was important to radically politicize the science even if it destroyed your children’s lives.

OK, yes we said unvaccinated people should die & not get healthcare while never questioning Big Pharma once but we are compassionate people which is why even though we shut down the entire economy we also bankrupted the nation & caused inflation. You’re welcome! Let’s be friends.

As QTR’s Fringe Finance notes, Oster’s plea for the decency that her ilk failed to offer up to most Americans during the throws of the pandemic comes at a point where the Covid narrative has been all but lost by the Democrats and the mainstream media.

There have been several recent large wins for the unvaccinated who had the constitution and backbone to stand up for themselves throughout a year of being constantly berated and ferociously scorned as second class citizens.

A majority of the media and Democrats had demanded that these people be removed from society and generally subject to scorn and ridicule. Now, in a moment that many of us knew would eventually be coming, apologies are being made around the world for how the unvaccinated were treated.

As Fox News wrote last week:

“The premier of Alberta, Canada, said she is working on a plan to pardon residents who were fined or arrested over breaking coronavirus protocols, and apologized to unvaccinated Canadians who faced ‘discrimination.’“

In New York, a Supreme Court judge recently reinstated all employees who were fired from their jobs for being unvaccinated:

The court found Monday that “being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting COVID-19.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams claimed earlier this year that his administration would not rehire employees who had been fired over their vaccination status.

* * *

The problem was not people’s ignorance of the facts, it was the organized antagonism and censorship against anyone presenting data that was contradictory to the mandate agenda. This is setting aside proclamations like those from the LA Times, which argued that mocking the deaths of “anti-vaxxers” might be necessary and justified.  After two years of this type of arrogant nonsense it’s hard to imagine people will be willing to pretend as if all is well.

The active effort to shut down any opposing data is the root crime, though, and no, it can never be forgotten or forgiven.

People are livid

Arizona Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) wants investigations.

As QTR further notes, many Americans whipped themselves up into such a terrified hypnotic frenzy that they found themselves clinging to big government to impose their will, advocating for the same draconian and fascist-sounding policies they always claim to be fighting against.

For example, Ramussen reported in January 2022 that Democratic voters supported the following Covid policy ideas (my annotations in bold, Rasmussen in normal text):

  • Fines for the unvaccinated: Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters would oppose a proposal for federal or state governments to fine Americans who choose not to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
  • House arrest: Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic voters would favor a government policy requiring that citizens remain confined to their homes at all times, except for emergencies, if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Imprisonment for questioning the vaccine: Nearly half (48%) of Democratic voters think federal and state governments should be able to fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing COVID-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications.
  • Forced quarantine: Forty-five percent (45%) of Democrats would favor governments requiring citizens to temporarily live in designated facilities or locations if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Stripping people of their children: Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Democratic voters would support temporarily removing parents’ custody of their children if parents refuse to take the COVID-19 vaccine. That’s much more than twice the level of support in the rest of the electorate – seven percent (7%) of Republicans and 11% of unaffiliated voters – for such a policy.

Unsurprisingly, American Federation of Teachers chief Randi Weingarten, who ‘flunked the pandemic‘ by pushing for school shutdowns as long as she possibly could before parents revolted, is a big fan of amnesty.

One cannot help but notice that the timing of the Atlantic’s appeal for passive forgetfulness coincides with the swiftly approaching midterm elections, in which polls suggest a much greater chance of a conservative upset than Democrats previously expected.  Though the Atlantic doesn’t admit it, there is a growing political backlash to the last two years of meaningless lockdowns and mandates, and Democrats were instrumental in the implementation of both.  A large swath of the population sees one party as the cause of much of their covid era strife.  

Perhaps the mainstream media is suddenly realizing that they may have to face some payback for their covid zealotry?  “We didn’t know! We were just following orders!”  It all sounds rather familiar.

END

Pelosi Attacker Charged With Assault, Attempted Kidnapping; Intended To “Kneecap” Nancy “If She Lied”

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 05:46 PM

The man who allegedly attacked the husband of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was charged Oct. 31 with assault and attempted kidnapping.

David DePape, 42, was charged with assaulting Paul Pelosi, 82 and attempting to kidnap Nancy Pelosi, 82.

DePape was charged in U.S. court in northern California three days after he allegedly broke into the Pelosi residence in San Francisco and attacked Paul Pelosi.

He faces up to 50 years in prison if convicted on both counts.

As The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber reports, San Francisco officers responded to a 911 call from Paul Pelosi in the early hours of Friday and witnessed, after the door was opened, DePape and Paul Pelosi each with a hand on the same hammer.

At 2:31 a.m., San Francisco Police Department (“SFPD”) Officer Colby Wilmes responded to the Pelosi residence, California and knocked on the front door.

When the door was opened, Pelosi and DEPAPE were both holding a hammer with one hand and DEPAPE had his other hand holding onto Pelosi’s forearm.

Pelosi greeted the officers.

The officers asked them what was going on.

DEPAPE responded that everything was good.

Officers then asked Pelosi and DEPAPE to drop the hammer.

Officers located zip ties in a bedroom in the home and inside of a backpack, they found a journal, a roll of tape, a hammer, a pair of gloves, and white rope.

Officers found signs that DePape broke into the home through the rear of the building.

A witness told officers that he saw a person wearing all black and carrying a large black bag walking near the Pelosi residence. Paul Pelosi, meanwhile, said that he was asleep when DePape entered the bedroom and said he wanted to talk to Nancy Pelosi. DePape said that he would wait, even after Paul Pelosi said his wife would not be home for several days.

Paul Pelosi called 911 from the bathroom.

According to dispatch audio, Paul Pelosi said that he was with a man he described as “a friend” and that the man was going to wait for his wife.

The dispatcher sent officers to the home after receiving the call.

DePape told officers hours after being detained that he intended to hold Nancy Pelosi hostage and that he would break her kneecaps if she did not tell the truth.

As the criminal complaint breaks down, in a Mirandized and recorded interview of DEPAPE by San Francisco Police Department Officers, DEPAPE provided the following information:

a.    DEPAPE stated that he was going to hold Nancy hostage and talk to her. If Nancy were to tell DEPAPE the “truth,” he would let her go, and if she “lied,” he was going to break “her kneecaps.”

DEPAPE was certain that Nancy would not have told the “truth.”

In the course of the interview, DEPAPE articulated he viewed Nancy as the “leader of the pack” of lies told by the Democratic Party.

DEPAPE also later explained that by breaking Nancy’s kneecaps, she would then have to be wheeled into Congress, which would show other Members of Congress there were consequences to actions.

DEPAPE also explained generally that he wanted to use Nancy to lure another individual to DEPAPE.

b.    DEPAPE stated that he broke into the house through a glass door, which was a difficult task that required the use of a hammer.

DEPAPE stated that Pelosi was in bed and appeared surprised by DEPAPE. DEPAPE told Pelosi to wake up. DEPAPE told Pelosi that he was looking for Nancy. Pelosi responded that she was not present. Pelosi asked how they could resolve the situation, and what DEPAPE wanted to do. DEPAPE stated he wanted to tie Pelosi up so that DEPAPE could go to sleep as he was tired from having had to carry a backpack to the Pelosi residence.

Around this time, according to DEPAPE, DEPAPE started taking out twist ties from his pocket so that he could restrain Pelosi. Pelosi moved towards another part of the house, but DEPAPE stopped him and together they went back into the bedroom.

c.    While talking with each other, Pelosi went into a bathroom, where Pelosi grabbed a phone to call 9-1-1.

DEPAPE stated he felt like Pelosi’s actions compelled him to respond.

d.    DEPAPE remembered thinking that there was no way the police were going to forget about the phone call.

DEPAPE explained that he did not leave after Pelosi’s call to 9-1-1 because, much like the American founding fathers with the British, he was fighting against tyranny without the option of surrender.

DEPAPE reiterated this sentiment elsewhere in the interview.

e.    DEPAPE stated that they went downstairs to the front door. The police arrived and knocked on the door, and Pelosi ran over and opened it. Pelosi grabbed onto DEPAPE’s hammer, which was in DEPAPE’s hand.

At this point in the interview, DEPAPE repeated that DEPAPE did not plan to surrender and that he would go “through” Pelosi.

f.    DEPAPE stated that he pulled the hammer away from Pelosi and swung the hammer towards Pelosi.

DEPAPE explained that Pelosi’s actions resulted in Pelosi “taking the punishment instead.”

DePape and Paul Pelosi were both taken to a hospital for treatment.

Paul Pelosi underwent surgery for a skull fracture and injuries to his hands, according to Nancy Pelosi’s office. Paul Pelosi’s condition “continues to improve,” Nancy Pelosi said in a statement over the weekend.

Local prosecutors have said they also plan to file a slew of felony charges against DePape, including  attempted murder, assault with a deadly weapon, burglary, and elder abuse.

As if that was not enough, a source with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) told Fox News that DePape was an illegal immigrant and a “longtime” visa overstay, meaning he arrived in the United States by legal means but did not leave after his visa expired and was never repatriated. DePape was born in Canada and has resided within the U.S. for roughly 20 years.

So in summary, a Berkeley nudist and illegal-immigrant, with a pedophile ex-wife, leaves his BLM-adorned, LGBT-supporting home and attacks the Pelosi residence with the goal of getting the “truth” from the Speaker and “fighting against tyranny”.

What’s weird about that?

end

Open in app or onlineThe Gateway Pundit: “BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Evidence Shows David DePape Could Never Fit Through the Hole in Broken Window in the Rear of Pelosi Home #Pelosigate”; Then the entry was consensual.
The broken glass doors were not the entry point into the house. This is evident from the photos on Friday morning. Why would Paul Pelosi go downstairs, greet the man, and bring him up to the bedroom?
DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 1 SAVE▷  LISTEN 
People are beginning to ask and I have no answer for it: what does Paul Pelosi, Jussie Smollett, and Bubba Wallace have in common? I told one person I did not know when I was asked and he then said “they are all fabricated stories, the real truth will come soon for Paul”. I told him I did not know. I find it all intriguing.SOURCE:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/breaking-exclusive-evidence-shows-david-depape-never-fit-hole-broken-window-rear-pelosi-home/
end
BREAKING: 2000 Mules Investigators Gregg Phillips and True the Vote Founder ARRESTED and Taken Into Custody One Week Before Mid-Term Election [VIDEO]Inbox
END

Robert Hryniak9:34 AM (23 minutes ago)
TO Brave people in a unjust system bringing truth. If you watch the film 2000 nukes your view of the 2020 so called election becomes tainted with distrust of the whole system.
Even most recently in the Brazil election there are many questions about election integrity and perhaps the reason the military is taking to the streets.
https://100percentfedup.com/breaking-2000-mules-investigators-gregg-phillips-and-true-the-vote-founder-arrested-and-taken-into-custody-one-week-before-mid-term-election-video/

KING REPORT

The King Report November 1, 2022 Issue 6877Independent View of the News
Japan’s factory output falls for first time in four months as firms battle rising costsSeptember output falls 1.6% m/m vs forecast -1.0%Auto production down 12.4% m/m, biggest fall since JanuaryGlobal slowdown is downside risk to output -METI officialSeptember retail sales post y/y rise for seventh monthA 12.4% decline in auto-related production – the sector’s steepest fall in eight months – drove down the overall index…Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to fall another 0.4% in October and rise 0.8% in November… While the annual consumer inflation rate was at 3.0% in September, the prices firms charged each other rose 9.7% in the same month…  https://t.co/wQ1n3biIZN
 
@FaceTheNation: The Federal Reserve can’t risk not getting on top of inflation, The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos says.  “Even though the risk of doing too much is a recession, the risk of not doing enough is that inflation just stays high and you have to have a bigger downturn later.”
https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1586758780414459905
 
Instead of rallying for Monday, end of October, and start of Fed Week, ESZs and US stocks declined – because perceived Fed conduit, Nick Timiraos, decimated the Fed pivot narrative on Sunday.
 
The early equity decline on Monday was led by techs and Fangs.  Land transport stocks rallied sharply, driving the DJTA to a triple digit-gain by the European close.
 
ESZs traded negatively but sideways during Asian trading.  After a modest decline after the European open, ESZs had an A-B-C rally that produced an 18-handles jump for ESZs by 7:28 ET.  ESZs and stocks then sank until a daily low appeared at 10:09 ET.  After trading sideways for an hour, ESZs and stocks were manipulated higher for the European close.  The rally persisted until 11:54 ET.
 
ESZs and stocks declined on a report that Biden would propose a windfall profit tax on Big Oil and other penalties if they do not lower gasoline prices.  Dopey traders and algos sold energy stocks because they cannot understand the GOP will, at the least, control the House.  Stocks rallied anew when the clock struck 13:00 ET.  It was time to get the manipulation to game October performance underway.
 
The moderate afternoon rally ended at 14:40 ET.  ESZs broke down at 14:56 ET.  A 22-handles ESZ drop ended at 15:10 ET.  The manipulation to game October performance began in earnest at 15:30 ET.  The 19-handle ESZ manipulation ended at 15:41 ET.  ESZs sank 15 handles into the close.
 
Looking for a Fright? Here Are Some Chilling Markets ChartsHousing costs, unemployment numbers also concern analysts‘Yield curve has taken on a ghostlike appearance’: Longo“Prior to the pandemic, the equilibrium of the US labor market was defined, on average, by wage inflation of 3.3% with 4.7 million more unemployed workers than job openings. Currently, wage inflation is running as high as 6.7%, with 4 million more job openings than unemployed workers.”
    “With wage inflation serving as the biggest driver of persistent inflation, this implies that in order to get inflation back down to the Fed’s target, we need to see an increase in the labor supply (less likely) or an increase in unemployment (more likely) of roughly 8.7 million jobs. Given a 159-million-person US labor force, this would imply a potential increase in unemployment of over 5% in order to re-establish labor market equilibrium.”…
    “Hopes of a Fed pivot have to contend with high rental inflation. While leading indicators of rent inflation have crashed to negligible levels around 1% annualized, the construction of rent indices in CPI means that index is lagged.” “At 40% of core CPI, rent inflation needs to decline dramatically to get monthly core prints close to 2% annualized.”…
    QT Winds – “The Fed’s balance sheet has only declined roughly to start-of-year levels, and the monthly declines have been quite modest compared to the gains we saw in late 2020 through 2021 (not to mention the early 2020 explosion).”…      
    Missing Fear – “Despite recent earnings, rising inflation fears, geopolitical headwinds and tail risks, we are just not seeing fear and demand for hedges. This is why equity volatility has dramatically underperformed rates/FX volatility.” “The SDEX Index gauges the market’s willingness to accept a one standard deviation loss by comparing the cost of ATM [at-the-money] options to the cost of OTM [out-of-the-money] puts struck one standard deviation OTM — in options speak, the ‘skew.’ Skew remains extremely low.”…
    Capex Collapse – “The Fed has shot residential investment, but there is not much evidence of weakness outside housing. Could business investment be next?”… “Our tracker of capital spending intentions from the various regional PMIs points to slowing ahead. Over the last six months core durable goods shipments have been flat. Look for this to go negative.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/-rolling-recession-qt-headwinds-wall-street-s-chilling-charts
 
More Than a Third of US Small Businesses Couldn’t Pay All Their Rent in October
About 37% of small businesses, which between them employ almost half of all Americans working in the private sector, were unable to pay their rent in full in October. That’s according to a survey from Boston-based Alignable, a network of 7 million small business members. It’s up seven percentage points from last month and is now at the highest pace this year, the survey showed…
    About 49% of restaurants were unable to pay their rent this month, up from 36% in September, while 37% of real estate agents couldn’t pay their rent, up from 27% last month…
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/more-third-us-small-businesses-182310888.html
 
After the close, Biden Calls on oil, gas companies to stop ‘war profiteering, threatens windfall tax
The oil industry “has not met its commitment to invest in America and support the American people,” he said. They’re not just making a “fair return” he said, they’re making “profits so high it is hard to believe,” Biden said… (What about Pfizer, Apple, Amazon, Google, etc.?)
    “Their profits are a windfall of war… I think it’s outrageous,”… If they passed those profits on to consumers, gasoline prices would be down about 50 cents, he said.  “If they don’t, they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits, and face other restrictions,” he said. The White House will work with Congress to look at these options and others. “It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering.”… https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-address-oil-company-profits-430-pm-remarks-2022-10-31/
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA rallied 8.81 points
Bonds rallied in the afternoon, cutting a 1 5/32-point loss to close -8/32
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Fangs got hammered again
Ex-the DJTA, major equity indices declined on the rally day of October
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Was Monday’s unexpected equity decline due to Nick?
Did a Fed official whisper to Nick in order to disabuse The Street of Fed Pivot delusions?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3876.30
Previous session High/Low3893.73; 3863.18
 
Truth Cops – Leaked Documents Outline DHS’s Plans to Police Disinformation
    Prior to the 2020 election, tech companies including Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Discord, Wikipedia, Microsoft, LinkedIn, and Verizon Media met on a monthly basis with the FBI, CISA, and other government representatives. According to NBC News, the meetings were part of an initiative, still ongoing, between the private sector and government to discuss how firms would handle misinformation during the election…The Hunter Biden laptop story was only the most high-profile example of law enforcement agencies pressuring technology firms. In many cases, the Facebook and Twitter accounts flagged by DHS or its partners as dangerous forms of disinformation or potential foreign influence were clearly parody accounts or accounts with virtually no followers or influence…
     “When the government suggests things, it’s not too hard to pull off the velvet glove, and you get the mail fist,” said Adam Candeub, a professor of law at Michigan State University. “And I would consider such actions, especially when it’s bureaucratized, as essentially state action and government collusion with the platforms.” “If a foreign authoritarian government sent these messages,” noted Nadine Strossen, the former president of the American Civil Liberties Union, “there is no doubt we would call it censorship.”  https://theintercept.com/2022/10/31/social-media-disinformation-dhs/
 
@nataliegwinters: Representatives from JPMorgan Chase attended virtually all DHS meetings about federal government efforts to censor disinformation on social media. Are they laying the groundwork for “de-banking” to become an (even more) mainstream strategy?  https://documentcloud.org/documents/2317
 
@greg_price11: The FBI & DHS were working directly with tech companies to police what information the American people could see during the 2020 election. But if you say it was riggedyou’re a dangerous election denier and if you protested it on J6, you earned a one-way ticket to the gulag.
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: FBI officials describe being taken off international terrorism details and reassigned to warrantless monitoring of Americans. Turns out there are also ongoing meetings between the FBI, Big Tech, and major media outlets on speech.  This abuse must be stopped. Investigations on this unprecedented abuse of Americans’ speech & privacy are coming in the Senate. Biden officials: preserve all your documents & prepare to testify.  
 
NEW COVID BOOSTER SHOTS DON’T WORK AS WELL AS ‘EXPERTS’ CLAIMED
Researchers at Columbia University and the University of Michigan measured antibodies from people who received the bivalent boosters against those who received three or four doses of the original vaccinations.  And — surprise, surprise — after just a few weeks, antibody levels amongst those who received the new boosters are exactly the same as those who received the original series.
     “At ~3-5 weeks post booster shot, individuals who received a fourth vaccine dose with a bivalent mRNA vaccine targeting BA.4/BA.5 had similar neutralizing antibody titers as those receiving a fourth monovalent mRNA vaccine against all SARS-CoV-2 variants tested, including BA.4/BA.5,” the document reads.  That last sentence is the most important takeaway…
https://www.outkick.com/new-covid-booster-shots-dont-work-as-well-as-experts-claimed/
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie: Pfizer’s original vaccine trial which contained 1200 participants with evidence of prior infection, showed no benefit from their shots for those who had evidence of prior infection@CDC lied, said study showed it was 92% efficacious for those w/ evidence of prior infection.
https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1587055742967861255
 
CDC boss tests positive for Covid AGAIN: Rochelle Walensky is diagnosed with virus just days after being given the all-clear – Walensky is suffering from a ‘Paxlovid rebound’ after the drug initially cured her… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11374893/CDC-boss-tests-positive-Covid-Rochelle-Walensky-suffers-Paxlovid-rebound.html
 
Elon Musk responds to LeBron James’ tweet about ‘scary AF’ racial slurs on Twitter
Roth wrote that the increase came over the last 48 hours from “a small number” of accounts posting “a ton of tweets.”  “More than 50,000 Tweets repeatedly using a particular slur came from just 300 accounts,” Roth tweeted…”Nearly all of these accounts are inauthentic,” Roth continued. “We’ve taken action to ban the users involved in this trolling campaign — and are going to continue working to address this in the days to come to make Twitter safe and welcoming for everyone.”…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-responds-lebron-james-181401520.html
 
Today – Traders will try affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, abetted by expected start-of-November buying at or near the close.  The window for a rally is open until tomorrow when the FOMC Communique is released at 14:00 ET.  Barring news, traders will buy dips and play for a rally.
 
ESZs are +9.50 at 20:30 ET. XOM +0.14%, and Chevron +0.46% after Biden’s impotent threats! 
 
Expected economic data: Oct S&P Global US Mfg PMI 49.9; Oct ISM Mfg 50, Prices Paid 53; Sept JOLTS Job Openings 9.625m; Sept Construction Spending -0.5% m/m; Oct Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.3m; 2-day FOMC begins
 
Expected earnings: MPC 7.09, CNP .30, PFE 1.40, NEM .35, LLY 1.93, MDLZ .69, PRU 2.03, CLX .76, FMC 1.11, MCK 6.05, AIZ 1.47, AIG .55, AMD .68
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3835; 100-day MA: 3901; 150-day MA: 4009; 200-day MA: 4109
DJIA 50-day MA: 30,911; 100-day MA: 31,380; 150-day MA: 32,049; 200-day MA: 32,628
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3694.70 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3847.29 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid
Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in military assistance when the Ukrainian president started listing all the additional help he needed…
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
 
@johngramlich: % of registered voters who see violent crime as a very important voting issue this year
Black Democrats: 82%; White Democrats: 33%  https://pewrsr.ch/3Wleags
 
Congressional Republicans deploy election observers to tight races, investigate irregularities
Rodney Davis, top Republican on House Administration Committee, organizes nationwide monitoring army and peppers federal and local officials with oversight letters…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/congressional-republicans-deploy-election-observers-tight-races
 
Attempted kidnap, assault charges filed against suspect in Pelosi husband attack (Details/confession)
https://news.yahoo.com/attempted-kidnap-assault-charges-filed-185034288.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
 
Alleged Paul Pelosi attacker is an illegal immigrant, ‘longtime’ visa overstay: report
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/alleged-paul-pelosi-attacker-illegal-immigrant-longtime-visa-overstay-report
 
ABC: Former partner of accused Paul Pelosi attacker DePape reveals new details about suspect
He is mentally ill. He has been mentally ill for a long time,” said Taub, who last year was found guilty on 20 counts, including the attempted abduction of a 14-year-old boy near his Berkeley high school…
    Taub told ABC7 News that she and DePape met more than 20 years ago. Together they raised their two sons and her daughter until about seven years ago.  She described a time DePape returned home after disappearing for a year…”He came back in very bad shape. He thought he was Jesus. He was constantly paranoid, thinking people were after him,” Taub said… “…he was very much in alignment with my views and I’ve always been very progressive. I absolutely admire Nancy Pelosi.”…
https://abc7news.com/gypsy-taub-david-depape-san-francisco-pelosi-assault-who-attacked-paul-conspiracy-theory/12396990/
 
Tucker Carlson on Monday night listed the inconsistencies in various Paul Pelosi attack narratives and highlighted the fact that the SFPD adamantly asserted that it will NOT release body-cam videos.  Carlson noted that the criminal complaint states the door was opened for the SFPD but does not state by whom.  PS – Carlson added that Paul Pelosi is a very nice man and is that way to everyone he encounters.
 
US District Court Criminal Complaint: 10. At 2:31 a.m., San Francisco Police Department (“SFPD”) Officer Colby Wilmes responded to the Pelosi residence, California and knocked on the front door. When the door was opened, Pelosi and DEPAPE were both holding a hammer with one hand and DEPAPE had his other hand holding onto Pelosi’s forearm. Pelosi greeted the officers. The officers asked them what was going on. DEPAPE responded that everything was good. Officers then asked Pelosi and DEPAPE to drop the hammer…  https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1548106/download 
 
@julie_kelly2: Capitol Police opened a field office (!) in San Francisco. Never mind there’s no Congressional authorization for the department to expand outside of DC but here we are.  What exactly were USCP agents doing if not watching/protecting the Speaker’s home?
https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/uscp-fbi-san-francisco-police-joint-threat-investigation

 

GREG HUNTER REPORT 

Advertisement

16 comments

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: