November 10, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $15.25 to $1766.15
SILVER PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $0.02 to $21.61
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1766.75
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.64
New: early yesterday morning//
Bitcoin morning price: $17,400 DOWN 9
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $16,726 UP 682
Platinum price closing DOWN $15.30 AT $1027.90
Palladium price; closing UP $66.10 at $2037.70
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: 2342.74 DOLLARS UP 6.79 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ
BRITISH GOLD: 1491.80 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 6.46 POUNDS PER OZ
EURO GOLD: 1705,68 EUROS PER OZ DOWN 13.50 EUROS PER OZ.
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,750.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/10/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
132 C SG AMERICAS 12
190 H BMO CAPITAL 37
323 C HSBC 22
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 120
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 346
661 C JP MORGAN 71 225
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 42 74
800 C MAREX SPEC 7 10
880 C CITIGROUP 24
880 H CITIGROUP 175
905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 586 586
JPMORGAN STOPPED 225/586
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT: 586 NOTICES FOR 58,600 OZ or 1.8227 TONNES
total notices so far: 5901 contracts for 590,100 oz (18.354 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 50,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 355 : for 1,775,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $15.25
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.02
AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.553 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 471.923 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1836 CONTRACTS TO 140,199 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $0.39 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY ONLY $0.39)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4361 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A SOME ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH MINOR SUCCESS .WE HAD ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AS THE PRICE OF THE METAL SKYROCKETED . // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. HUGE NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) SOME ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH ZERO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// HUGE NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 240,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:2,435,000 MILLION OZ/ / // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +–
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 20,350 contracts: 101.75 million oz OR 11.350MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2261 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 101.75 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 101.75 MILLION
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1836 WITH OUR STRONG $0.39 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2525 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 240,000 QUEUE JUMP/ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4837 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 24,185MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS D WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ON THURSDAY.
WE HAD 10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3949 CONTRACTS TO 495,950 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -902 CONTRACTS.
.
THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $40.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY // CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS TO NO AVAIL//ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS. IT SEEMS THAT EVERYBODY WISHES TO BUY BUT NO SELLERS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GIGANTIC 18,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $40.75 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8800 OI CONTRACTS (27.37 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4851 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 495,206
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8800 CONTRACTS WITH 3949 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS FAILING TO GET OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 4851 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8800 CONTRACTS OR 27.37 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4851) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3949): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 8800 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS. WE HAD ZERO SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 18,300 OZ //NEW STANDING 21.048 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
40,271 CONTRACTS OR 4,027,100 OZ OR 125.25 TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4474 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY9TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 125.25 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 125.25/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 125.25 TONNES//INITIAL ( SO FAR MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1836 CONTRACT OI TO 140,199 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 2312 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 2312 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2312 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1836 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2312 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 4361 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24.185MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $0.39….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.16 PTS OR 1.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1,224.62 OR 7.74% /The Nikkei closed UP 547.14 OR 1.97% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.86% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.1078 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.0943// /Oil DOWN TO 88.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.09 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3949 CONTRACTS TO 495,950 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $40.75 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (4022 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT SEEMS THAT SPEC SHORTS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE COVERING THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4851 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC : 4851 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4851 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8800 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4693 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 3949 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $40.75//WE ARE FINALLY WITNESSING SOME SPEC SHORTS TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD HUGE ADDITIONAL NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR SPEC SHORTS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV (21.048 TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 21.048 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $40.75) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 6808 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND MINIMAL SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8800 CONTRACTS.// WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 27.37 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (21.048 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF $2.00
WE HAD -902 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9544 CONTRACTS OR 9544 OZ OR 29.685 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 261,315// fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 380,402/ excellent
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 11
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 162,052.885oz Brinks 21 KILOBARS Loomis: 230 kilobars and JPM |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 586 notice(s) 58600 OZ 1.8227 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 866 contracts 86.600 oz 2.693 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5901 notices 590100 18.354TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
customer withdrawals:3
i) Out of Brinks: 675.17 (21 kilobars)
ii0 Out of JPMorgan: 153,955.837 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 7426.881 oz (230 kilobars)
total: 162.057.885 oz
total in tonnes: 5.04 tonnes
Adjustments: 0//
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.
For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 1452 contracts having LOST 234 contracts. We had 417 notices served on THURSDAY so we gained a strong 183
or an additional 18,300 OZ (0.569 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November. We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.
This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.
December LOST ONLY 16,667 contracts DOWN to 276,059. DEC WILL BE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH.
JANUARY GAINED 29 contract to stand at 29.
February gained 19,222 contacts up to 174,588.
We had 586 notice(s) filed today for 58600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 71 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 586 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 225 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5901) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (NOV 1452 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 585 x 100 oz per contract equals 676,700 OZ OR 21.048 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of NOV.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:
No of notices filed so far (5901) x 100 oz+ (1452) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (586} x 100 oz} which equals 676,700 oz standing OR 21.048 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 21.048 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,927,397.697 OZ 59.95 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 24,128,689.166 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,188,196.268 OZ (347.99 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,102,526.606 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,260,799OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 288.04 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 11//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 982,748.421 oz Brinks CNT Int. Delaware Manfra |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 338,371.360 oz Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 10 CONTRACT(S) (50,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 132 contracts (660,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 355 contracts (1,775,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 4 withdrawals out of the customer account
i) Out of CNT: 5023.08 oz
ii) Out of Int. Delaware: 60,722.150 oz
iii) Out of Manfra: 612,625.571 oz
iv) Out of Brinks 304,377.620 oz
Total withdrawals: 982,748.427 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 153.534million oz/298.070 million =51.51% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex deposits:
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35,322 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)
TOTAL REG + ELIG. 298.070MILLION OZ (also declining)
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 142 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 10 CONTRACT(S.)
WE HAD 58 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 48 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 240,000 OZ WILL STAND
FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 5593 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 76,900
(WE WILL HAVE A DANDY DEC. DELIVERY MONTH AS THE CONTRACTION IS GOING VERY SLOWLY)
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 19 CONTRACTS UP TO 1418 CONTACTS.
.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:10 for 50,000 oz
Comex volumes:89,156// est. volume today// strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 116,331 contracts ( huge)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 355 x 5,000 oz = 1,775,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(142) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 355 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (142) – number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 2,435,000 oz.
We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:49,371// est. volume today// poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 101,267 contracts ( huge)
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES
OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 911.57 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//
OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 471.923 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff .
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
MATHEW PIEPENBURG:
POLO METAPHORS, BOND FAILS AND GOLD’S PRICE DIRECTION
Matthew Piepenburg
November 9, 2022
Gold’s price direction is explained below.
From polo to hockey—it’s a known fact that the best players think three moves ahead.
Sadly, the same can’t be said of our financial elites…
But as playing conditions deteriorate across the bond, stock, property and currency markets, those with a “three-play- ahead” mindset will have the greatest advantage.
This is especially true for precious metal investors, regardless of their riding or skating skills.
More Horse-Droppings from the Treasury Dept.
One of the most important global players on today’s macro pitch is the credit market, and that horse is tired.
Last week, former Fed-Chair-turned-US-Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, told reporters that her office is “very focused” on Uncle Sam’s IOUs, and even confessed “concern” regarding “episodes of illiquidity” wherein it has been difficult to buy or sell US Treasuries, especially in large amounts.
Ultimately, however, the mule-riding Don Quixote, Janet Yellen, does not “see problems at this point in the U.S. Treasury Markets.”
Ahhhhh. That’s rich….
Apparently, Yellen has a very poor eye for the current playing field and is chasing windmills rather than the rules of a moving target.
Hiding Bond Liquidity with Verbal Liquidity
As we have been warning for months, these “episodes of illiquidity” are more than just a “concern.”
In fact, they serve as undeniable evidence that the world is running out faith in Uncle Sam’s bloated bar tab after years of monetary addiction to mouse-click money to pay for (monetize) the so-called “American way.”
In short, when GDP, tax receipts and good ol’ fashion productivity or trade surpluses no longer work, the US has become good at just borrowing and printing, a tactic (i.e., charade) that bought time, votes and even an appallingly ironic Noble Prize for Bernanke, but a ruse for which the rest of the world is now losing faith after years of importing American inflation.
In short, more and more of the world wants less and less of Uncle Sam’s sovereign debt, which means USTs are falling and hence yields and rates are rising.
And as previously reported, those rising yields are like rising shark fins approaching a debt-soaked global system already bleeding in the water.
Stated simply, when Yellen says she sees no problems, that’s precisely when you know there’s a problem.
Or as Otto von Bismarck (and Tree Rings) reminds: “Never believe anything in politics until it is officially denied.”
More Treasury Secretaries, More Mules Masquerading as Thoroughbreds …
Speaking of Treasury Secretaries (i.e., the worst players on the “cancha”), former Secretary Larry Summers is doing what he does best, namely: Causing problems behind the scenes (from repealing Glass Steagall to deregulating derivatives), denying/ignoring guilt, and then once those problems become obvious, making public warnings of the same to appear virtuous.
Like Minister Fouche under Napoleon, Summers blows in which ever direction the wind most suits his image.
Toward that end, he’s finally speaking of what most of us have known long ago: The US can’t afford rising rates in 2022 under Powell the way it could in 1980 under Volcker.
Thanks, again, Larry, for jumping on the band wagon long after it’s too late.
Given the foregoing realities, double-speak and just plain dumb out of DC’s lowest-goal but best-dressed players, the inevitable consequences of unloved Treasuries as a result of unimpressive Treasury Secretaries simply means an inevitable pivot toward more printed, debased and inflationary Dollars to keep Uncle Sam from defaulting on his bonds.
But politicians are clever foxes. They hide their addictions (and intentions) as cleverly as the BLS hides inflation facts.
Just More Backdoor QE Before the Real Thing
Just like politicos can deny a recession in a recession or deny inflation during inflation, they can pretend that QE is not QE, even when it is, well… QE.
Toward that end, we can expect the Treasury Department to start buying its own longer-dated bonds (USTs) by swapping them with shorter duration T-Bills.
Officially, this is not Quantitative Easing per se, but rather a “UST buyback.”
But why let fake semantics confuse honest math? The smart players are already three plays ahead of the Fed’s empty rhetoric and bad riding skills.
Like the daily repo support from the Fed, in the end, such “buyback” schemes are just QE under a different mask.
Powell’s Ruse Continues
Thus, as such shell games in DC continue to hide reality behind words, the Powell Fed will continue its ruse to fight inflation the “Volcker way” and likely announce and conduct additional (but 50 rather than 75 bps) rate hikes in the last chapters of 2022 and the early chapters of 2023 before the inevitable surrender to more QE.
Why the near-time rate hikes?
Powell knows that when the current recession becomes an official recession, he’ll need at least one tool in his ever-weakening toolbox.
In short: He’s only raising rates today so that he’ll at least have something to cut tomorrow.
And speaking of recession, the following (and inverted) yield curve is a screaming sign that a recession is coming, if not already here.
I See Serious Stagflation Ahead
As for fighting inflation, any short-term hopes of beating inflation will end once the money printers are spinning again at full speed to buy Uncle Sam’s increasingly unloved IOUs.
This will likely occur in 2023, but frankly, who the hell knows precisely when it will rain QE money? I don’t.
The key is recognizing the shark fins and getting a safe boat. And as warned previously, we are all gonna need a bigger boat.
Stated bluntly and simply, there’s no way to ever unwind the Fed’s balance sheet nor the nation’s $31T deficit in the face of a recession that will take that deficit many, many, many trillions higher.
These obvious and fatal inflationary realities will ultimately collide with the disinflationary forces of a long and painful (as well as Fed-engineered) recession.
Given that I see inflation as a monetary issue rather than just a bogus CPI print, the further and inflationary debasement of the USD under further QE ahead (despite the USD’s growing and ironic relative strength) will be a stronger force than a deflationary recession.
In simple terms, this means we need to prepare for (rather than debate) some serious stagflation ahead.
Toward that end, and as already implied by a number of DC insiders, we can expect the Fed to slowly alter its “target inflation” narrative from the comical 2% range to an equally comical 4% or higher range in the coming months and quarters—all of course, to be blamed on Putin or COVID rather than years of mouse-click money.
Powell, like most mediocre politicians (or polo players), is ego driven rather than Main Street responsible. His main fear today is not about keeping his post, but assuring his legacy.
Secretly, Powell fears looking like another Arthur Burns, who let inflation get too hot. Thus, Powell’s public image today is about fighting inflation.
But I’m not buying it. The real goal today is to inflate away debt.
Karma’s a B!7@#
In reality, and to repeatedly shout from the rooftops, the only way to handle $31T in US public debt is to “inflate it away” by eventually loosening rather than tightening monetary policy once it becomes obvious that US IOUs won’t find enough buyers unless there’s a money printer to do so.
Needless to say, such grotesque reliance on a money printer (i.e., money killer) is the economic Karma of far too many years living on debt rather than productivity, and far too many years of the US exporting its inflation to the world and clipping the wings of their own allies by making the USD too strong to repay, settle or compete.
By 2024, I expect a disorderly “reset” and central bank digital currencies as the USD loses what little respect it has left.
The World Turning a Slow Back on a Fast Dollar
Toward this end, and as forewarned too many times to count, the rest of the world (I.e., the BRICS) is either turning away from the steroid-ruined USD (slowly but surely) or turning toward their currency-debasing money printers (think Japan and the UK yesterday and the ECB and the Fed tomorrow).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is looking more toward China and less toward Biden to improve energy cooperation.
As warned, the Petrodollar system, so critical to the USD’s eminence (i.e., forced demand) in the world, is going to slowly unwind as Saudi starts accepting yuan rather than USD for its oil.
So yes, the world (and Dollar) is changing, and fast…
Poor Germany
Over the weekend, for example, I was in Munich, where inflation is already at 11.6% in a country which is considered Europe’s most reliable creditor.
But even Germany can’t seem to find any buyers for its bonds as Olaf Scholz scurries to raise $200B to pay for rising energy costs due to its blind (forced?) support for American sanctions against Putin in yet one more example of a long list of U.S. proxy wars on other peoples’ land.
But who wants to buy a German bond when the inflation rate is running some 900 basis points above the average interest rate, which means buyers lose almost 9% of their return to inflation the moment they bid?
In short, the reality of negative real yields (the hidden trick of all broke nations) is not only hitting the face of the average US citizen, but Germany’s as well.
Gold: Play the Direction of the Ball
As introduced above, all of these trends point not to where the golden polo ball or hockey puck sits currently, but toward where the ball or puck is headed…
Right now, and as explained at length elsewhere, an engineered and only relatively strong USD is taking the shine off gold. The current inverse correlation between gold and the USD is undeniable.
But that is where the ball sits now. Where it is headed is another matter, and great players, as well as investors, are always three plays ahead of the moment…
Stated more simply, as more and more currencies (including, yes, even the USD) weaken in a backdrop of inflationary realities and debasing consequences, gold is headed for an historical move, which means central bankers are about to get hit with a golden puck…
Toward this end, investors around the world are always asking Egon and I what the gold price will be in a month, a day, a year etc.
But gold price measured in what? In USD? Yen? Euros? Pound Sterling?
Folks, the simple point is why measure a fixed asset in an increasingly dying currency? Gold’s real measure is in ounces and grams, not fiat paper.
Or stated more simply: Gold doesn’t rise (see flat/constant top-line in graph below), it just holds its value as fiat currencies gyrate and then die like a fish flopping on the dock, which all fiat currencies have always done, throughout history, every time and without exception.
So, are you playing the ball where it lies now, or where it will be three plays ahead?
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A MUST READ OVER THE WEEKEND
KITCO FINALY ADMITS TO GOLD MANIPULATION!!
(zerohedge)
The End Times arrive! Kitco covers gold manipulation in some detail
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-11-10 13:51Section: Daily Dispatches
2:08p ET Thursday, November 10, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
More evidence that the End Times are here!
Yesterday Kitco News editor Michelle Makori moderated a discussion about gold market manipulation with mining entrepreneur Frank Giustra taking the position that the manipulation emanates from government and mining entrepreneur Rick Rule taking the position that it doesn’t.
Of course for gold market manipulation even to be mentioned at Kitco is highly unusual. But the End Times began when both Giustra and Makori began citing some of the documents of manipulation that GATA has been bringing to your (and their) attention for many year
Makori even displayed one such document, the transcript of the meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Undersecretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, Thomas O. Enders, at the State Department in April 1974. The transcript explains why U.S. government policy, to maintain the dollar as the world reserve currency, must push gold outside the world financial system and particularly must intimidate Western European countries, major gold holders, out of remonetizing gold:
https://www.gata.org/node/13310
Makori also mentioned Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony to Congress in July 1998 that central banks lease gold precisely to suppress its price:
Giustra and Makori also cited the constant involvement in the gold market of the Bank for International Settlements, a subject that, until yesterday, was the exclusive provenance of GATA.
Indeed, the discussion almost seems to have been prompted by your secretary/treasurer’s presentation last month to the New Orleans Investment Conference, which covered some of the documents cited at Kitco yesterday.
https://www.gata.org/node/22229
Elaborating on the documents, Giustra demonstrated a comprehensive understanding of central banking’s view of the challenges and opportunities of monetized gold, including its potential for becoming the bedrock of an alternative to the weaponized dollar system.
By contrast Rule did not respond to any of the documentation cited. He never has responded to it even as he long has ridiculed the idea that governments might be engaged in suppressing the gold price.
Of course the discussion at Kitco did not credit GATA even once for compiling and publicizing the documentation being cited, despite the many years of blacklisting GATA has endured from mainstream financial news organizations and Kitco itself. But quite without giving any credit, just feeling compelled to produce the discussion must have been humiliating enough for Kitco. Maybe the coin and bullion dealer at last has managed to cover its shorts.
The discussion is almost two hours long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Another important reading material for you over the weekend
(Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Legal definitions of money and credit
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-11-10 11:48Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, November 10, 2022
At these times of growing confusion over the future of currencies’ purchasing power, it is time to remove all doubt in the definitions of the differences between money, currency, and credit. This article traces the history and legal background to these relationships.
Despite the failure of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971 and the state propaganda that followed, the position is clear. Both historically and legally money is and remains metallic coin — principally gold — and the rest is credit.
As a result of statist puffery of their fiat currencies, the public now wrongly believes it is fiat currencies that are money and that currencies have no price, except against each other. I show that this is factually incorrect. However, in financial markets legal money is always priced in legal tender, usually U.S. dollar currency, when it should be the other way round. This inversion of the truth will turn out to be a costly error for those making this mistake.
In this article I also show that the adverse consequences for prices from changes in the level of total commercial bank credit are significantly less than they are for changes in the level of central bank credit. Now that we are on the verge of a severe contraction of commercial bank credit, governments and their central banks are sure to respond by ramping up inflation of their currencies in a vain attempt to avoid deflation.
The consequences for fiat currencies are likely to be calamitous for them.
That will be the penalty we all face for ignoring the wisdom and findings of the Roman jurors, thinking that we know better with our economic models, macroeconomic policies, and statist control of markets.
Over two millennia of their careful deliberations, it was the Roman jurors who thoroughly examined and properly defined the difference between money and credit, upon which all economics and modern banking depend. Current monetary and economic fashions are mere ephemera in that context. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/legal-definitions-of-money-and-credit?gmrefcode=gata
END
Uzbekistan is reversing its policy of backing away from gold by acquiring considerable amounts during this year
(Bloomberg)
A top gold-buying central bank plans to acquire a lot more
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-11-10 18:21Section: Daily Dispatches
By Nariman Gizitdinov and Maria Kolesnikova
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 10, 2022
The world’s second-biggest buyer of gold among central banks last quarter believes there’s hardly such a thing as too much bullion.
Uzbekistan has brought the share of the precious metal in its $32 billion reserves to almost two-thirds, in a reversal of a plan to cut it below 50% by buying U.S. and Chinese sovereign debt.
The proportion is now among the highest in developing economies tracked by the World Gold Council, even as total Uzbek reserves have grown by about a quarter since the central bank broached the idea of diversifying away from bullion more than three years ago.
“We thought about investing in Treasuries, but then the market itself didn’t let us do it,” the Uzbek central bank’s deputy chairman, Behzod Hamraev, said in an interview. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
4. OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES
Ep. 98 Live from the Vault
The COMEX Illusion Hides Massive Silver Load Out
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire investigates the ‘officially sanctioned’ PsyOps paper-sell operation disrupting the COMEX’s gold and silver price-setting mechanism.
The London whistleblower takes a detailed look at the staggering scale of EFP outflows draining paper market liquidity, as global buyers demand the physical delivery of their bullion.
5.OTHER COMMODITIES:
COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES
FTX files for bankruptcy.
This operation was nothing but a leverage scheme. Just like gold which is leveraged 100 to one, then FTX used the same principle.
(zerohedge)
FTX Files For Bankruptcy, Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns As CEO
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 09:22 AM
As widely expected, FTX – which was clearly insolvent after the biggest fraud in crypto history – has filed for bankruptcy, and its soon-to-be incarcerated boss Sam Bankman-Fried, f/k/a “the JPMorgan of his generation”, has resigned as CEO. SBF is being replaced with John J. Ray, III – the lawyer who helped clean up Enron – as incoming CEO.
Press release below:
FIX Group Companies Commence Voluntary Chapter 11 Proceedings in the United States Begin Orderly Process to Review and Monetize Assets for Benefit of Global Stakeholders John J. Ray III Appointed Chief Executive Officer; Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns
FTX Trading Ltd. (d.b.a. FTX.com), announced today that it, West Realm Shires Services Inc. (d.b.a. FTX US), Alameda Research Ltd. and approximately 130 additional affiliated companies (together, the “FTX Group”), have commenced voluntary proceedings under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code in the District of Delaware in order to begin an orderly process to review and monetize assets for the benefit of all global stakeholders.
John J. Ray III has been appointed Chief Executive Officer of the FTX Group. Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned his role as Chief Executive Officer and will remain to assist in an orderly transition. Many employees of the FTX Group in various countries are expected to continue with the FTX Group and assist Mr. Ray and independent professionals in its operations during the Chapter 11 proceedings.
“The immediate relief of Chapter 11 is appropriate to provide the FTX Group the opportunity to assess its situation and develop a process to maximize recoveries for stakeholders,” said Mr. Ray. “The FTX Group has valuable assets that can only be effectively administered in an organized, joint process. I want to ensure every employee, customer, creditor, contract party, stockholder, investor, governmental authority and other stakeholder that we are going to conduct this effort with diligence, thoroughness and transparency. Stakeholders should understand that events have been fast-moving and the new team is engaged only recently. Stakeholders should review the materials filed on the docket of the proceedings over the coming days for more information.”
The news sparked the latest bout of selling in crypto which is back under $17,000 unable to stage even a modest bounce amid the relentless negative newsflow…
And the price FTX Token (FTT) is tumbling…
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1078
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0983
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.16 PTS OR 1.68%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 1,224.62 OR 7.74%
2. Nikkei closed UP 547.14 PTS OR 1.97%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.69/Euro FALLS TO 0.99442
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.236!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 139.37/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.115%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.165%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.155%…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.505//
3j Gold at $1763.00//silver at: 21.63 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 13/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.39//
3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 96 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 139.37DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9544– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9844well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8112% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.059% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,53…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.383%
end
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Extend Gains As FOMO Spreads After China Eases Covid Measures
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 08:05 AM
One day after its best day since April 2020, when the S&P500 added 5.5%, or a near-record $1.8 trillion in market cap in one day, a rare 4-sigma move that has only occurred 10 times over the past decade, which essentially showed how wrong-footed the market was ahead of the inflation surprise.…
… the index was set to extend its gains as a FOMO panic started to spread among traders fueled by a softer-than-expected US inflation print and as China reduced the amount of time travelers and close contacts of virus cases must spend in quarantine, and pulled back on testing, in a significant calibration of the Covid Zero policy that has upended the world’s second-largest economy and raised public ire.
Contracts on the US stock benchmark advanced 0.3% to 3,974 at 730 a.m. in New York, having earlier risen as high as 3,997. Nasdaq 100 futures also gained 0.7%, while Treasury futures weakened, with the cash market closed for the Veteran’s Day holiday. Commodities also rallied while the dollar retreated for a second day.
Overnight Beijing announced that travelers into China will be required to spend only five days in a hotel or government quarantine facility, down from ten, followed by three days confined to home, according to a National Health Commission statement Friday. The latest news on China’s Covid policy tweaks “plays with the grain of the post-US CPI moves down in the dollar,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “The dollar is highly attuned to swings in risk sentiment, and for now that means dollar down.”
In US premarket trading, Chinese stocks listed in the US soared after Beijing made significant changes to the stringent Covid Zero policy that has bogged down the economy and dented appetite for the country’s equities. Alibaba and JD.com both advanced at least 3.6%. Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia also extended their Thursday gains with major US technology and internet firms. Health insurance provider GoHealth Inc slumped as much as 22%, on track for the worst day in three months if the move holds, after the firm’s net revenue for the third quarter missed analyst estimates. Here are some other premarket news:
- Doximity shares jumped as much as 19% in US premarket trading after its earnings beat expectations, putting the online healthcare platform on track for its best day in nine months if the move holds. Analysts were encouraged to see the company reiterating its guidance for the full-year amid robust demand from hospital clients.
- GoHealth shares slumped as much as 22% in US premarket trading, on track for the worst day in three months if the move holds, after the health insurance provider’s net revenue for the third quarter missed analyst estimates. The company held off providing full-year 2022 guidance after suspending it back in August, contributing to an uncertain outlook. GoHealth’s shares had bounced 16% this week ahead of its release, though remain down 87% for the year.
- Matterport shares surged as much as 32% in US premarket trading, with the stock set for its biggest gain since its July 2021 IPO, after the 3D camera maker’s results beat demonstrated the company is holding up well amid a difficult real estate market. Demand for its latest products set it up well for next year, analysts noted, while Matterport also narrowed its revenue guidance for the year. Its shares are down 85% year-to- date.
- Shares in cryptocurrency-exposed companies edged lower on Friday, with the price of Bitcoin under pressure amid the unfolding crisis at FTX. Coinbase -0.2%, Riot Blockchain -0.7%.
- Snail shares climb 83% premarket after the company announced a $5m-stock buyback plan. The repurchase plan represents 5.8% of the company’s current market value, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- AirSculpt Technologies (AIRS US) shares plunged as much as 26% in US premarket trading, putting the stock on track to hit its lowest level since its initial public offering, after the provider of a type of liposuction to remove unwanted fat cut its year outlook.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are poised for their best week since June, after official US data showed the consumer price index rose 7.7% in October from a year before, its smallest annual advance since the start of 2022 That fueled bets that the Federal Reserve would rethink how fast it needs to move with interest rate hikes, and also lowered the terminal Fed Funds rate to 4.90% suggesting less than 4 rate hikes are left until the Fed halts tightening.
The positive mood was reinforced after China reduced the amount of time travelers and close contacts must spend in quarantine, scrapped flight bans and pulled back on testing, in a significant calibration of the Covid Zero policy that has isolated the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese stocks listed in the US soared in premarket trading.
Thursday’s data not only spurred short covering as bearishly positioned investors bought back into the market, but it prompted the biggest one-day gain in such hated indexes as Goldman’s Non-Profitable Tech which exploded over 15% higher in one single day!
“Markets were not ready for good news, which is the key takeaway from yesterday’s market reaction. But having said that, inflation is still 7.7%. It doesn’t make a huge difference compared to 7.9% for the US consumer, and so the pressure is still very much there,” said Maurice Gravier, chief investment officer for the wealth management division of Emirates NBD Bank PJSC in Dubai.
Gravier expects volatility to continue until there is clarity about a Fed pause, which he says is slated for the middle of next year, he told Bloomberg TV.
In Europe, consumer products, miners and real estate are the strongest performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.7%. CAC 40 outperforms peers, adding 0.8%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.3%. Sterling reclaims $1.17. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Richemont reported 1H operating profit that beat estimates, as growth for the maker of Cartier jewelry and watches was led by retail. Shares rise as much as 21%, the most since October 2008, boosted along with peers as China eased some Covid measures.
- Prudential jumps as much as 9.5% to hit its highest level since Aug. 16, gaining alongside China-exposed sectors like luxury and mining
- European real estate stocks extend gains, following a surge in the previous session after US inflation data fueled optimism that the Fed might slow the pace of interest rate hikes. German landlord Aroundtown is among the biggest contributors to the gain at 10%
- Casino gains as much as 21% after the French grocer bought back €67m of Quatrim 2024 senior secured notes in the market, while as a highly indebted stock it also benefits from some relief following US inflation data.
- Defensive sectors retreat in Europe after Thursday’s softer-than-expected US inflation data and the easing of Covid restrictions in China triggered a market rotation into cyclical and growth stocks such as technology and retail. Thales is among the stocks leading the decline at 7.3% and Saab at 6.8%
- DKSH is initiated with a neutral rating and CHF70 PT at Credit Suisse, with the broker saying the risk-reward looks balanced for the distribution group. DKSH shares fall as much as 7.3%, the most since July.
- ACS declined as much as 3.7% on Friday after the Spanish infrastructure company reported earnings Thursday evening, which Renta 4 said showed pressure in the construction business margin.
- GSK is among the biggest laggards on the Stoxx 600 Health care subindex, falling as much as 5.5%, after UBS downgraded the shares to sell from hold, citing “uncertain times ahead still,” and seeing an “unattractive earnings scenario” after 2026.
Asian stocks also traded higher with gains as the region followed suit to the post-CPI global stock surge, while the adjustment of COVID protocols in China including a shorter quarantine for close contacts provided a late tailwind. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the heightened risk appetite with the Hong Kong benchmark frontrunning the advances as it gained by more than 1,000 points, while the mainland was also boosted in late trade on China relaxing its COVID protocols. Nikkei 225 jumped above the 28,000 level amid the risk-on mood and as participants digested a deluge of corporate earnings which have largely influenced the list of best and worst performers for the index.
Australian stocks soared to post the third weekly gain: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 2.8% to close at 7,158.00, the highest since June 6, with technology and real estate shares rallying most. The benchmark gained for a third straight week. The move followed a broad-based rally in Asian stocks after slower-than-projected US inflation spurred bets the Federal Reserve will moderate its aggressive rate-hike path. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 2% to 11,311.76.
In FX, the dollar extended Thursday’s steep drop, falling against most Group-of-10 peers and hitting its lowest against the yen since late August after China eased some of its quarantine restrictions for inbound travelers, helping to boost demand for higher-risk currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.9% after closing down 2% Thursday for its biggest fall since March 2009, when a softer CPI reading saw traders pull back bets on US rate hikes.
- USD/JPY fell as much as 1.6%, pushing below the psychologically key 140 level
- The euro rose to a three-month high of 1.0279 and headed for its best week since March 2020. Short-term bets turn bullish for the first time since Feb. 11 as shorts trim exposure
- The pound was among the worst-performing G-10 currencies. The gilt curve twist-steepened very modestly
- Australian dollar recovered from selling driven by leveraged funds trimming longs before the weekend. Bonds give back some of their opening gains in the wake of a softer core CPI reading that saw markets reprice the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate lower
In rates, cash treasury trading is closed for Veteran’s day; Treasury futures are open and are slightly lower on the day but remain near the top of the session range from Thursday, when the curve aggressively bull steepened following a lower-than-estimated CPI report. US futures losses are led by long-end of the curve, where long- bond contracts are around 21 ticks lower vs. Thursday close — 10-year futures around 112-08+, remain close to Thursday session highs. Gilts also lower on the day; BOE announced Thursday that the unwinding of emergency bond purchases will begin Nov. 29. Bunds are lower on the day, feeding through to weakness in Treasury futures, with German yields cheaper by 5.5bp to 9.5bp across the curve with losses led by belly. The German curve bear-flattened, while Italian bonds underperformed their German peers, with the 2-year yield rising by around 16bps. Money markets add to ECB tightening wagers ahead of a large slate of ECB speakers
Commodities from oil to iron ore and copper jumped after China eased some Covid restrictions, raising hopes over a demand recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said OPEC+ will remain cautious on oil production, weeks after the group angered the US by lowering output. WTI drifts 2.4% higher to trade around $88.53; commodities widely surge after China eased some Covid restrictions. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to above $1,762/oz
In crypto, Bitcoin is modestly softer intraday but holds onto USD 17,000+ status. FTX CEO Bankman-Fried is facing an SEC probe related to his crypto empire, according to Bloomberg. Crypto exchange BlockFi tweeted that it is unable to operate business as usual and is pausing client withdrawals, citing a lack of clarity from FTX.com.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November in the US, along with the UK’s GDP reading for Q3. From central banks, speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, Holzmann, Panetta, Lane, de Cos, Centeno and Nagel, along with the BoE’s Haskel and Tenreyro. Finally, the EU Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,979.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 433.01
- MXAP up 4.8% to 150.99
- MXAPJ up 5.5% to 485.10
- Nikkei up 3.0% to 28,263.57
- Topix up 2.1% to 1,977.76
- Hang Seng Index up 7.7% to 17,325.66
- Shanghai Composite up 1.7% to 3,087.29
- Sensex up 2.0% to 61,803.85
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.8% to 7,157.95
- Kospi up 3.4% to 2,483.16
- Brent Futures up 2.3% to $95.80/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,761.68
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.63% to 107.53
- German 10Y yield up 2.9% to 2.068
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.0249
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- The yuan has swung violently from one end of its tightly-managed trading band to the other like never before, as optimism toward a pivot from Covid-Zero evaporated concern about President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power
- SNB Governing Board member Andrea Maechler expects inflation in Switzerland to stay elevated for at least two more years, she told newspaper L’Agefi
- UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces an extraordinary balancing act in his autumn budget next week. He needs to appease financial markets with a package of spending cuts and tax increases, while also winning over disgruntled voters
- Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is preparing to cut planned public spending growth to 2% or lower after 2024-25, compared to a previous provisional plan of 3.7% growth, according to a person familiar with his thinking
- The BOE signaled it will move cautiously in selling off the £19 billion ($22 billion) of UK government bonds it snapped up in emergency action in recent weeks, outlining a “demand-led” approach to the sales
- A decade ago this week, former UK chancellor George Osborne declared that income from bonds the Bank of England acquired under its quantitative-easing program could be used to reduce government debt. Now, the government expects to send £11 billion ($12.8 billion) to the central bank to cover an anticipated shortfall on the portfolio in the months to April
- German lawmakers approved next year’s federal finance plan including net new borrowing of €45.6 billion ($46.6 billion), according to documents seen by Bloomberg
- EU officials in Brussels on Friday slashed their forecast for growth next year, predicting barely any expansion, and raised all their projections for consumer prices. They reckon the economy is now shrinking and will keep contracting during the first quarter
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded with firm gains as the region followed suit to the post-CPI global stock surge, while the adjustment of COVID protocols in China including a shorter quarantine for close contacts provided a late tailwind. ASX 200 was led by tech and the real estate sector amid the lower yield environment. Nikkei 225 jumped above the 28,000 level amid the risk-on mood and as participants digested a deluge of corporate earnings which have largely influenced the list of best and worst performers for the index. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the heightened risk appetite with the Hong Kong benchmark frontrunning the advances as it gained by more than 1,000 points, while the mainland was also boosted in late trade on China relaxing its COVID protocols.
Top Asian News
- China’s National Health Commission released adjusted protocols for COVID prevention and control with quarantine for close contacts cut to 5 days centralised isolation and 3 days home quarantine from 7 days centralised isolation and 3 days home quarantine. China is also to cut COVID quarantine for inbound travellers from 10 days to 8 days and it cancelled the circuit breaker for inbound flights, according to Reuters.
- China disease control researcher earlier said that China is to continually improve its COVID-19 policies and will not relax them while the virus mutates and the epidemic situation changes, according to Reuters.
- Haizhu district of Guangzhou extended its COVID lockdown until November 13th, according to Reuters.
- China is expected to take additional measures to support the economy by conducting the largest cash injection this year through MLF loans or by reducing RRR, according to Bloomberg.
- US customs said it had seized 1,053 shipments of solar equipment since June under the China forced labour ban, while the shipments are primarily from Longi (601012 CH), Trina (688599 CH) and Jinkosolar, according to Reuters.
- Arm IPO unlikely to take place by March 2023, according to Softbank (9984 JT) sources cited by Reuters.
Major bourses in Europe are mostly firmer following CPI-induced optimism which saw further gains on Wall Street after the European cash close, with the sentiment then reverberating in APAC before seeing another boost on reports that China is easing its COVID measures. Sectors in Europe are mostly in the green with the laggards comprising of defensives, whilst the top performers include Tech, Real Estate, Retail, and Basic Resources. US equity futures are trading sideways with modest gains across the board, with futures holding onto yesterday’s upside.
Top European News
- UK Real Estate Slumped to Worst Quarter Since 2009 as Rates Bite
- Richemont Surges on Record Profit and China’s Covid Easing
- European Gas Prices Soften as Storage Fill Limits Rationing Risk
- European Mining Stocks Jump as Metals Gain on China Covid Easing
- United Internet Said to Pick IPO Banks for Web Hosting Unit
- European Stocks Set for Best Week Since March on Fed Bets, China
FX
- DXY remained downtrodden amidst further fallout, or capitulation on the back of October’s comparatively soft CPI data that ramped up Fed pivot expectations.
- G10s are firmer across the board against the Dollar, with the Japanese Yen the outperformer as USD/JPY fell under 140.00.
- The Yuan stands as the EM outperformer after China said it will ease some COVID measures.
Fixed Income
- US Treasuries are hovering midway between its 112-18/03+ overnight range ahead of prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations.
- Gilts pared more losses to get within 2 ticks of 105.00 having been down to 104.06.
- Bunds have recovered from a deeper low, at 139.38 and perhaps on technical grounds as 139.35 represents a 50% Fib retracement of Thursday’s rally.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are extending the gains seen overnight which were sparked by China easing its COVID measures.
- Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ will remain cautious on production, via Bloomberg; OPEC+ will not lose sign of what the oil market needs.
- Chinese refiners will reportedly reduce Saudi crude oil term volume loading in December, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- Spot gold extends its gains above its 100 DMA (1,714/oz) and above the USD 1,750/oz mark as the Dollar crumbles.
- Base metals also firmer across the board with added tailwinds from China’s easing of COVID measures – 3M LME copper eyes USD 8,500/t to the upside from a USD 8,271/t intraday base.
Geopolitics
- Russian Kremlin said goals of the special military operation can be achieved with peace talks but peace talks are not possible due to the Ukrainian position. Russian Kremlin said grain deal contacts ongoing, number of issues need to be resolved, via Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that he has directed another USD 400mln worth of arms and equipment from Department of Defense inventories to Ukraine.
- US issued a general licence authorising certain transactions relating to energy with some Russian banks. It was also reported that insurers said gaps in the G7/EU Russian oil price cap plan could leave tankers stranded at sea and disputes over compliance with the oil price cap could lead to a loss of insurance cover and refusal to discharge, according to Reuters.
- Chinese President Xi will meet with US President Biden, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to meet which PBoC Governor Yi Gang on the sidelines of the G20; to discuss global economic situation and hopes to learn more about China’s property sectors; Yellen to update Yi on US economic conditions, via Reuters.
- Russian President Putin to skip the APEC summit (13-17th Nov), according to a Thai official
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia-US Commission on New START treaty is to meet late November/early December in Cario, according to Ria.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.5, prior 59.9
- U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 62.8, prior 65.6
- U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 55.5, prior 56.2
- U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
- U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.0%, prior 5.0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
If ever we needed proof that the market is absolutely desperate for some good news on inflation, yesterday proved it in spades with the market moves up there with the most remarkable since the pandemic began thanks to a -0.2% miss in both headline and core inflation. Both measures missed by that much as recently as July so we have been here before not long ago, but one has to go back to August 2014 to find the last time both headline and core both missed by at least -0.2% before that.
Having said that it’s still a long, long, long path ahead towards anything resembling normal inflation, but with monthly core CPI running at its slowest pace in over a year, investors immediately latched onto hopes that the Fed wouldn’t need to be as aggressive in raising rates, leading to a massive surge across all the major asset classes. For instance, yields on 2yr Treasuries (-24.7bps) saw their largest daily decline since 2008, the S&P 500 (+5.54%) had its best day since April 2020, and the dollar index (-2.12%) suffered its worst daily performance since 2015. So definitely one for the history books.
I don’t think there is anything inconsistent in saying that markets continue to be set up for a rally (technicals, seasonals, better European near-term energy outlook etc.) while also thinking next year could ultimately be pretty bad. Back in April when we first said we thought the US would be in recession by the middle of 2023, the consensus expectation for CPI by Q4 2022 was 4.5%. The headline rate was still 7.7% yesterday. So our conviction remains the same.
Indeed, even with the surge in risk sentiment, the Fed’s preferred yield curve measure (18m3m – 3m) for predicting the cycle spectacularly entered inversion territory yesterday, falling -37.1bps to -13.7bps. When quizzed in the past about the veracity of 2s10s (my preferred yield curve signal), Chair Powell has deflected its recessionary signal, claiming it’s confounded with a number of other variables. Instead, the Fed’s preferred measure strips out the noise and sharply focuses on the near-term policy path, where inversion implies policy rate cuts due to recession. One wonders how he would respond now to questions on yesterday’s inversion.
When it comes to the full details of that report, monthly headline CPI surprised to the downside at +0.4% (vs. +0.6% expected), meaning that the year-on-year number ticked down to +7.7% (vs. +7.9% expected), thus continuing its descent from its June peak of +9.1%. What was even better from a market perspective was the deceleration in core CPI as well, where the monthly reading fell to +0.3% (vs. +0.5% expected). In fact, with core at +0.27% to two decimal places, that’s actually the slowest since September 2021, so an encouraging sign. And in turn, the year-on-year measure for core fell to +6.3% (vs. +6.5% expected), moving off its recent peak in September. One last piece of good news was that the decline in inflation was broad-based rather than being driven by outliers, and the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean measure saw its slowest monthly growth since April 2021 at +0.37%.
Even with an optimistic CPI report, Chair Powell has highlighted one of the most persistent sources of inflationary pressures would come from a too-hot labour market. There, yesterday, we got the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker which showed still sturdy wage gains, with the 3m moving average of yoy wage growth increasing +0.1% to 6.4%. That’s below the 6.7% peak, but above every other print on record outside of recent data. So, progress will be long in coming, and won’t be helped if financial conditions exhibit large knee-jerk easing trends in response to any optimistic news.
For now though with inflation surprising on the downside, investors moved to dramatically reprice their expectations for Fed tightening over the months ahead. In the near term, futures raised the chances that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate hikes to 50bps next month, moving away from the jumbo 75bps pace of the last 4 meetings. Indeed, the amount of hikes priced for the December meeting came down -5.5bps on the day, leaving it at just 50.9bps now. Looking further out, the terminal rate priced for Q2 came down from 5.04% the previous day to 4.89%. And when it comes to end-2023, the rate priced in came down by an even larger -31.4bps to 4.38%, signalling that investors are becoming more confident about the odds of rate cuts as we move deeper into next year.
In response to the CPI release, Fed officials struck their usual cautious tone, with San Francisco Fed President Daly saying it was “far from a victory”, and Dallas Fed President Logan saying it was “a welcome relief, but there is still a long way to go”. And to be fair to them, annualised CPI inflation was still running at +5.4% in October, so there are grounds for caution in spite of the market optimism. Nevertheless, Logan validated market expectations that we’re about to see a downshift in rate hikes, saying that “I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving”, although she also said she believes “a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy”. Philadelphia Fed President Harker struck a similar tone on slowing down, saying he expected they would “slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance”.
As investors moved to expect a more dovish Fed over the coming months, Treasuries surged across the board, with the 2yr yield (-24.7bps) seeing its largest daily decline since 2008, to close at 4.33%. Those declines were driven by a mixture of lower real rates and inflation breakevens, and the 10yr yield (-28.0bps) also saw its biggest daily decline since March 2020 at the height of the pandemic. This sense that central banks were about to be more dovish was evident in Europe too, and downgraded expectations of future ECB tightening sent yields on 10yr bunds (-16.2bps), OATs (-19.0bps) and BTPs (-27.9bps) sharply lower as well.
Equities surged alongside bonds on the back of these hopes about a central bank pivot. In fact, the S&P 500 (+5.54%) had its best daily performance since April 2020, which for now makes this rally an even more aggressive version of the other 6 Fed pivot trades we’ve identified over the last 12 months. Every sector group advanced on the day, but the cyclicals strongly outperformed, and the NASDAQ (+7.35%) had its best performance since March 2020. Unsurprisingly, the FANG+ Index outperformed even more, given the sensitivity of underlying valuations in the index to discount rates, increasing +9.39%, its best day since March of this year. That coincided with a marked reduction in the VIX index of volatility, which fell -2.56pts to a 2-month low of 23.5pts. In Europe there was also a marked turnaround, with the STOXX 600 leaping from marginally positive territory just prior to the report to end the day up +2.75%.
Ironically we were seeing risk assets pretty nervous prior to CPI given all that was going on in the crypto space. The latest here was that Alameda Research, the hedge fund linked to FTX – the crypto exchange whose issues started this week’s crypto route – would be winding down, while there was back and forth about whether FTX would ultimately be rescued. However a soft CPI shunted this into the weeds as Bitcoin closed +13.20% at $17,808, notably above the low during the Asian session of $15,618.
Whilst risk parity was having a great day, there were some marked shifts in FX, where the dollar index (-2.12%) fell to its worst daily performance since 2015, slumping against every other G10 currency. The Japanese Yen was a particular outperformer, gaining +3.90% on the day versus the dollar, as was the British pound which strengthened +3.15% to levels not seen since before the government’s mini-budget. Those moves leave the dollar index at its lowest closing level since mid-August, before Fed Chair Powell delivered his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.
This morning, equity markets in Asia are matching the upbeat mood, extending the overnight rally on Wall Street. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+7.06%) is leading gains with the Hang Seng Tech Index (+8.36%) echoing that outperformance we saw from US tech stocks, whilst other indices including the KOSPI (+3.36%), the Nikkei (+2.95%), the CSI (+2.86%) and the Shanghai Composite (+2.06%) are all noticeably higher. That was supported by the positive US inflation news, but there were also some developments on the Covid situation in China that bolstered sentiment, since they cut the quarantine time for inbound travellers to 8 days from 10, and also reduced the quarantine time for close contacts to 8 days as well, even as the total number of daily cases moved above 10,000 for the first time since April. Otherwise, US equity futures are pointing higher this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.40%, and the Japanese Yen (-0.43%) has fallen back slightly against the US Dollar after its +3.90% rise in the previous session. That follows data showing that Japan’s producer prices inflation fell to +9.1% year-on-year in October (vs. +8.8% expected), marking the slowest pace of growth since January.
Turning to the midterm election results, we didn’t get much in the way of updates yesterday, and the question of which party ends up controlling each chamber in Congress remains unconfirmed. However, as was the case 24 hours ago, it continues to look as though the Democrats have the stronger chance in the Senate. Indeed, it’s possible that the Democrats hit the 50-mark before the Georgia runoff on December 6 if they can win the two other races in Nevada and Arizona. Meanwhile in the House, the Republicans continue to have the edge, since although they’re not at the 218-majority mark just yet, they’re leading in enough of the outstanding districts to give them a narrow majority as it stands.
Back in Europe, our research colleagues in Frankfurt published their latest gas supply monitor yesterday, where they see an increased likelihood that Germany will be able to avoid rationing this winter. The key risk factors to that are a cold winter spell or pipeline disruptions that affect gas demand and supply respectively. It also looks forward to the EU energy ministers’ meeting on November 24, and points out that the EU Commission could present elements of its gas price cap proposal as early as today for a meeting of EU ambassadors, which is unlikely to include a hard cap but could still pave the way for a compromise. You can see the full report here.
Looking at yesterday’s other data releases, the US weekly initial jobless claims rose to 225k (vs. 220k expected) in the week ending November 5, which leaves the 4-week moving average at 218.75k (vs. 219k previously).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November in the US, along with the UK’s GDP reading for Q3. From central banks, speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, Holzmann, Panetta, Lane, de Cos, Centeno and Nagel, along with the BoE’s Haskel and Tenreyro. Finally, the EU Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Major bourses in Europe are mostly firmer following CPI-induced optimism, with added tailwinds from China easing COVID measures – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 06:41 AM
- Major bourses in Europe are mostly firmer following CPI-induced optimism, with added tailwinds from China easing COVID measures; FTSE 100 lags
- DXY tumbles with G10s all firmer against the Buck, whilst the Yuan outperforms in the EM-space
- Crude futures and base metals are extending the gains seen overnight which were sparked by China’s COVID update
- Chinese President Xi will meet with US President Biden, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry
- Looking ahead, highlights include Uni of Michigan Prelim survey, speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & Panetta, BoE’s Tenreyro, ECB’s Lane, US Veteran’s Day with Floor Trade on CME closed
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
11th November 2022
- Click here for the Week Ahead preview
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- Major bourses in Europe are mostly firmer following CPI-induced optimism which saw further gains on Wall Street after the European cash close, with the sentiment then reverberating in APAC before seeing another boost on reports that China is easing its COVID measures.
- Sectors in Europe are mostly in the green with the laggards comprising of defensives, whilst the top performers include Tech, Real Estate, Retail, and Basic Resources.
- US equity futures are trading sideways with modest gains across the board, with futures holding onto yesterday’s upside.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY remained downtrodden amidst further fallout, or capitulation on the back of October’s comparatively soft CPI data that ramped up Fed pivot expectations.
- G10s are firmer across the board against the Dollar, with the Japanese Yen the outperformer as USD/JPY fell under 140.00.
- The Yuan stands as the EM outperformer after China said it will ease some COVID measures.
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- US Treasuries are hovering midway between its 112-18/03+ overnight range ahead of prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations.
- Gilts pared more losses to get within 2 ticks of 105.00 having been down to 104.06.
- Bunds have recovered from a deeper low, at 139.38 and perhaps on technical grounds as 139.35 represents a 50% Fib retracement of Thursday’s rally.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are extending the gains seen overnight which were sparked by China easing its COVID measures.
- Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ will remain cautious on production, via Bloomberg; OPEC+ will not lose sign of what the oil market needs.
- Chinese refiners will reportedly reduce Saudi crude oil term volume loading in December, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- Spot gold extends its gains above its 100 DMA (1,714/oz) and above the USD 1,750/oz mark as the Dollar crumbles.
- Base metals also firmer across the board with added tailwinds from China’s easing of COVID measures – 3M LME copper eyes USD 8,500/t to the upside from a USD 8,271/t intraday base.
- Click here for more detail.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is modestly softer intraday but holds onto USD 17,000+ status.
- FTX CEO Bankman-Fried is facing an SEC probe related to his crypto empire, according to Bloomberg
- Crypto exchange BlockFi tweeted that it is unable to operate business as usual and is pausing client withdrawals, citing a lack of clarity from FTX.com.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said efforts to bring inflation under control are likely to take between 18-24 months, via BusinessLive; more rate hikes will be seen in the coming months.
- EU Commission forecasts EZ GDP to grow 3.2% in 2022, 0.3% in 2023, and 1.5% in 2024; EZ inflation seen at 8.5% in 2022, 6.1% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
- UK GDP Estimate MM (Sep) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.3%)
- UK GDP Estimate YY (Sep) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 2.0%)
- UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M (Sep) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.3%)
- UK GDP Prelim YY* (Q3) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 4.4%)
- UK GDP Prelim QQ* (Q3) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.2%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINE
- US judge declares President Biden’s plan to cancel student loans as unconstitutional, according to Reuters.
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk said that 2023 will probably be tough, but his companies are well positioned
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian Kremlin said goals of the special military operation can be achieved with peace talks but peace talks are not possible due to the Ukrainian position. Russian Kremlin said grain deal contacts ongoing, number of issues need to be resolved, via Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that he has directed another USD 400mln worth of arms and equipment from Department of Defense inventories to Ukraine.
- US issued a general licence authorising certain transactions relating to energy with some Russian banks. It was also reported that insurers said gaps in the G7/EU Russian oil price cap plan could leave tankers stranded at sea and disputes over compliance with the oil price cap could lead to a loss of insurance cover and refusal to discharge, according to Reuters.
OTHER
- Iran’s Foreign Minister held a call with the UN Secretary-General in which they discussed JCPOA talks, the Ukraine war and the contribution to extending the ceasefire in Yemen, while the Iranian Foreign Minister criticised some western states for encouraging the use of violence in Iran protests, according to a Twiter source.
- Chinese President Xi will meet with US President Biden, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to meet which PBoC Governor Yi Gang on the sidelines of the G20; to discuss global economic situation and hopes to learn more about China’s property sectors; Yellen to update Yi on US economic conditions, via Reuters.
- Russian President Putin to skip the APEC summit (13-17th Nov), according to a Thai official
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia-US Commission on New START treaty is to meet late November/early December in Cario, according to Ria.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded with firm gains as the region followed suit to the post-CPI global stock surge, while the adjustment of COVID protocols in China including a shorter quarantine for close contacts provided a late tailwind.
- ASX 200 was led by tech and the real estate sector amid the lower yield environment.
- Nikkei 225 jumped above the 28,000 level amid the risk-on mood and as participants digested a deluge of corporate earnings which have largely influenced the list of best and worst performers for the index.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the heightened risk appetite with the Hong Kong benchmark frontrunning the advances as it gained by more than 1,000 points, while the mainland was also boosted in late trade on China relaxing its COVID protocols.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s National Health Commission released adjusted protocols for COVID prevention and control with quarantine for close contacts cut to 5 days centralised isolation and 3 days home quarantine from 7 days centralised isolation and 3 days home quarantine. China is also to cut COVID quarantine for inbound travellers from 10 days to 8 days and it cancelled the circuit breaker for inbound flights, according to Reuters.
- China disease control researcher earlier said that China is to continually improve its COVID-19 policies and will not relax them while the virus mutates and the epidemic situation changes, according to Reuters.
- Haizhu district of Guangzhou extended its COVID lockdown until November 13th, according to Reuters.
- China is expected to take additional measures to support the economy by conducting the largest cash injection this year through MLF loans or by reducing RRR, according to Bloomberg.
- US customs said it had seized 1,053 shipments of solar equipment since June under the China forced labour ban, while the shipments are primarily from Longi (601012 CH), Trina (688599 CH) and Jinkosolar, according to Reuters.
- Arm IPO unlikely to take place by March 2023, according to Softbank (9984 JT) sources cited by Reuters.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1907vs exp. 7.1890 (prev. 7.2422)
i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.16 PTS OR 1.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1,224.62 OR 7.74% /The Nikkei closed UP 547.14 OR 1.97% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.86% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.1078 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.0943// /Oil DOWN TO 88.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.09 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3c CHINA
CHINA/ECONOMY
China’s economy slows. Loans are growing less than expected as a reflection of a weaker economy.
(Pang/ING bank)
Chinese Loans Grow Less Than Expected Again, A Reflection Of Weak Loan Demand And A Weak Economy
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 09:00 PM
By Iris Pang, Chief Greater China Economist at ING Bank
The fourth quarter is usually a quiet time for loans and credits, but this set of data for October is just too soft.
Overall credit growth was only CNY907.9 billion in October, lower than the previous month’s CNY3530 billion, and less than CNY1617.6 billion a year ago. Among all credit growth, yuan loan growth was CNY615.2 billion, also lower than the previous month’s CNY2470 billion. Outstanding yuan loans grew 11.1% year-on-year, slower than 11% in the previous month and 11.9% during the same month in 2021.
This indicates that demand for loans was weak in October. Together with PMI and trade data, we believe that there could be a deeper-than-expected slowdown during the month.
The housing market should still be quiet as mortgage loans, which are a big part of household long-term loans, grew only CNY33.2 billion.
Yuan loans made up nearly 68% of total new credit in the month of October. Most of the rest were net issuance of corporate and government bonds, which contributed nearly 26% and 31%, respectively, of total new credit.
Local government special bonds will raise funds for the 2023 quota in the fourth quarter of this year. The issuance amount for 2023 is likely to be higher than the issuance amount of around CNY4.15 trillion in 2022. We believe funding raised will be used on finishing uncompleted home projects, buying back land from some property developers, infrastructure projects that have already started, and Covid-19-related spending.
What will be interesting to find out is how much more local government bond quotas are set for 2023. We believe that both central government and local governments will be key supporters of the economy until there is more relaxation in Covid measures.
We are still keeping GDP growth at 3.3% for 2022 and USD/CNY at 7.4 by the end of the year.
end
CHINA/
Commodities soar after China finally eases quarantine rules. This is totally nuts: they shorten the time travelers with inbound flights to China must spend in quarantine from 10 days to 5 days. I am sure this will help them!! They announced this with news that COV 19 cases are escalating/
(zerohedge)
Commodities Soar After China Eases Quarantine Rules
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 06:44 AM
Commodities from Iron to crude to copper to soybeans soared after China made a significant change to the zero Covid policy that has caused nothing but trouble in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Almost all commodities, whether agriculture, energy, or metals, traded higher following the news of a 20-point playbook for officials that aims to reopen the economy, Bloomberg reported. One of the most notable shifts, laid out by the National Health Commission, is the amount of time travelers with inbound flights to China are required to spend in quarantine slashed to just five days in a hotel or government facility, followed by three days at home. The current rule is ten days is a total of ten days in quarantine, with a week in a hotel, then three at home.
The shortened quarantine length sent crude futures in New York and London up more than 3%. Iron ore in Singapore jumped as much as 8.2%, copper trading in London rose as much as 3%, and agricultural commodities gained across the board.
In a further pivot from zero Covid, the National Health Commission will discard a controversial system that punishes airlines for bringing infected passengers into the country. The new playbook is for all authorities and local governments to follow in containing future Covid outbreaks.
Remember, we pointed out (read: here & here) there were rumors on social media about Beijing preparing to roll back draconian zero Covid measures earlier this month.
This morning’s most significant moves in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) basket are nickel, crude, gasoline, copper, and soybeans.
BCOM is up more than 1.5% on Friday. The basket of commodities has been in a trading range for most of the year, and the news of the biggest overhaul of China’s virus approach since the pandemic is risk positive despite mounting global concerns about recession.
Commenting on the news is Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, who said commodity “bulls have been waiting for such a trigger … these events may be enough to wash out all the bears and set up a strong and sustained rally.”
Today’s news will “further fuel speculation over a broader relaxation of China’s Covid control measures, which is bullish for energy and commodities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, said if China were to reopen fully, it could increase oil demand by 500,000 barrels a day, just as OPEC+ reduced production and Russian supplies dwindled. Zero Covid has suppressed China’s crude and crude products demand this year, but that could soon all change.
Besides commodities, the yuan strengthened by more than 1%.
A basket of emerging-market economies jumped the most in six years on China easing quarantine rules.
And in Asian equities, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped a whopping 8% on the news as airlines and casinos soared.
Finally, we note that these easing actions take place despite surging cases across the country. The country reported 10,729 new cases on Friday.
China can’t afford to keep crushing its economy via zero Covid policies…
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
GERMANY/CHINA
And rightfully they shoud: Germany prohibits Chinese takeover of 2 semiconductor chipmakers. All nations should prohit Chinese takeovers unless they reform to capitalism.
(Roberts/EpochTimes)
Germany Prohibits Chinese Takeover Of 2 Semiconductor Chipmakers, Citing Security Concerns
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,
Germany’s government blocked on Nov. 9 the sale of two domestic semiconductor factories to Chinese-owned companies, citing security concerns.
“We have prohibited a non-Union investor from entering into business ventures in Germany,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck told reporters in front of the German chancellor’s office on Nov. 9.
Habeck noted that the decision came because the “security of order in Germany must be protected and critical production areas require special protection.”
Elmos Semiconductor, which makes chips for the automotive industry, was barred from selling its factory in Dortmund, Germany, to Silex, a Swedish subsidiary of China’s Sai Microelectronics.
In a Nov. 7 statement, Elmos stated that it had been warned by the German Economy Ministry that the sale to Silex would likely be prohibited, noting that this was a “recent development.”
The company said it would examine the details after receiving the decision and decide on what further steps to take.
Silex announced in December 2021 that it had signed a sale and purchase agreement with Elmos to buy the factory for 85 million euros ($85.4 million), with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2022, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
Rising Security Concerns
The decision by Germany’s government comes amid rising concerns over European countries’ dependence on Beijing and concerns that Chinese investment in its critical infrastructure could leave it exposed to national and economic security issues, as well as to political pressure from the Chinese communist regime.
Semiconductors are an essential component in everything from electronic devices such as mobile phones to electric vehicles.
Earlier this year, the European Union unveiled a multibillion-euro “Chips Act” aimed at bolstering Europe’s competitiveness and resilience in semiconductor technologies and applications and reducing its dependence on supplies from Asia.
“We must look very closely at company takeovers when it relates to important infrastructure or when there is a danger that the technology would flow to buyers from non-EU countries,” Habeck said, according to local reports.
He also noted that the sale of a second company had been turned down by the government, but he didn’t name the companies involved, citing “trade secrets.”
However, Germany’s minister for research, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, revealed the company to be Bavaria-based ERS Electronic, according to local reports. According to its official website, ERS Electronic supplies thermal wafer test technology to the semiconductor industry.
It’s unclear which Chinese company was interested in buying the German firm.
ERS Electronic hasn’t publicly commented on the matter. Company officials didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment by press time.
Germany’s decision to halt the sale of the semiconductor factories comes as the country is facing a recession that has been further exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis.
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a meeting that focused on business ties between the two nations as Germany’s relationship with Russia continues to deteriorate.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/KHERSON
Ukraine fly the EU flag in Kherson
(zerohedge)
Ukrainians Fly EU Flag In Kherson To Celebrate Russian Retreat
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 10:35 AM
A regional official has confirmed that the Ukrainian flag has been raised Friday over the contested city of Kherson, two days after Russian forces commander Gen. Sergei Surovikin announced a major withdrawal of his troops in a surprise admission being interpreted internationally as a major strategic defeat in the south.
Reuters has cited Ukrainian regional lawmaker Serhiy Khlan to say the “final stage of reclaiming the west bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region” is underway, after Russian forces moved to the opposite side in a draw down from the city. The flag of the European Union was also seen raised alongside the Ukrainian flag over the city’s central administrative building, with photos widely circulating on social media.
Gen. Surovikin had earlier in the week said that all civilians who wanted to evacuate, which the Russian side has estimated at 115,000 people, have been successfully brought to the left bank. This as Ukrainian forces had reportedly reclaimed dozens of settlements in the southern area while moving toward Kherson.
The Ukrainians are meanwhile alleging that not all Russian soldiers have fled the city but are instead changing into civilian clothing in order to hide within.
Without citing evidence, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s southern command told a press briefing that Russian troops “have been changing into civilian clothes for two weeks,” but that “the number of these people is not known.” According to further military statements:
He cautioned that many Russian troops “threw away their military uniforms, and are now hiding with civilian clothes on.”“They will be plotting provocations, false-flag operations in the city,” he said. “There is a lot of work ahead on de-mining and clearing the city.”
The Kremlin has remained silent on the rapidly unfolding events around Kherson, other than saying it has completed the Kherson withdrawal. There was some speculation earlier in the week even from Kiev officials over the possibility that the Russians were staging a trap by announcing a false withdrawal. But widely circulating footage of columns of Ukrainian troops marching into the city appear to confirm a total Russian retreat…
The aforementioned Ukrainian regional official, Serhiy Khlan, described the situation around the Dnipro further, “Our Armed Forces, under a fierce onslaught, destroyed most of the Russians who were fleeing like rats to the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro.” He added: “They were fleeing along the pontoons they had built under Antonivskyi bridge, leaving their equipment behind. Many Russians have drowned.”
Shelling and explosions have continued to be reported amid the movement of Russian troops to the opposite bank of the river. The Ukrainians also say they are sustaining fire on Russian positions.
“Now since our Armed Forces have actually taken control of the right-bank [western] part of the Kherson region, we can keep the left-bank [eastern] part of Kherson region under fire control, up to the Crimean isthmus,” Khlan said.
Crowds have continued to congregate downtown to celebrate Ukrainian forces re-entering after over seven months since Russian troops asserted control over the strategic city…
The retreating Russian forces are said to be destroying critical infrastructure as they pull out, with CNN reporting, “On Friday the main bridge across the Dnipro River linking Kherson city to the eastern part of the region was destroyed, which would make any attempts by the Ukrainians to pursue fleeing Russians across the river more difficult.”
Below: map of Ukraine-Russian lines in eastern and southern Ukraine as of Nov.9, via CNN.
Globally this is being seen as a huge blow to President Putin’s war aims. Additionally a total Ukrainian retaking of Kherson puts its missile systems, many which have been supplied by the US and NATO countries, within reach of nearby Crimea.
end
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/KHERSON
This is a must read: why the retreat and why the USA now wants a settlement!
(Pepe Escobar)
Sun Tzu Walks Into a Kherson Bar… — Strategic Culture
| Robert Hryniak | 10:30 AM (1 hour ago) |  | |
| to |
You only have understand supply planning to know why this is occurring and what comes next..
 | ReplyForward |
IRAN
If true, this is a dangerous development; Iran claims it has developed a hypersonic missile
(zerohedge)
Iran Claims It Developed A Hypersonic Missile
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 10:40 PM
Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Thursday issued a surprising statement claiming that it has developed a hypersonic missile “capable of penetrating all defense systems,” according to the words of the commander of the IRGC aerospace unit overseeing the project.
General Amirali Hajizadeh claimed in the statement cited in state-run Fars news agency, “This hypersonic ballistic missile was developed to counter air defense shields.” Hypersonic missiles can reach more than five times the speed of sound, and very few countries in the world possess the capability. Iran is now for the first time claiming to be among them.
“It will be able to breach all the systems of anti-missile defense,” said the general, stressing that no anti-air system has yet been developed by any foreign nation which is capable of intercepting them. “This missile, which targets enemy anti-missile systems, represents a great generational leap in the field of missiles,” the IRGC commander added.
Israel, the US, and the West more broadly is sure to take this as a shocking and dangerous development if confirmed, given already there’s been years of scrutiny placed on Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, amid ongoing threats to Israel especially.
The only three countries in the world believed to possess hypersonics include the United States, Russia, and China. It remains Russia that is likely most out front in testing its hypersonic arsenal, having touted multiple successful launches and even limited deployment on the Ukrainian battlefield.
North Korea last year also claimed to have tested a hypersonic missile, though there was little in the way of verification as to how far along its program really is. Some Western analysts think Pyongyang was bluffing, and this could be the current case with Iran as well.
While there remains cause for skepticism over the new hypersonics claim, in recent years Western defense officials have consistently underestimated Iran’s defense technology sector and capabilities…
Iran has within the last year launched ballistic missiles on neighboring Iraq, targeting what it called terrorist militia groups seeking to undermine the state, which had camps hosted in Kurdish areas. Washington has also accused Iran of launching attacks via proxies on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, specifically out of Yemen. “These attacks are a reminder that Iran’s development and proliferation of ballistic missiles pose a serious threat to regional and international security,” the US government said at the time.
More recently there have been rumors that Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia alongside drones for use in Ukraine. Tehran has vehemently denied it is giving missiles to Moscow, but has just this month belatedly admitted to supplying drones.
As for this new claim to possess hypersonic projectiles, if Israel sees any validity in it, Israeli forces could potentially see reason enough to launch preemptive strikes on the Islamic Republic’s missile manufacturing facilities. However, Iran has long tried to conceal aspects of its long-range missile program in deep underground bunkers.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
GLOBAL ISSUES: FOOD INFLATION//SHORTAGES IN GENERAL
Forsvaret av Norge kan bli styrt fra USA: – Norge blir enda viktigere
| Robert Hryniak | 9:55 AM (4 minutes ago) | | |
| to |
Ok now we have the picture. NATO members like Finland will be trained under the NATO banner by the US as apart of a global army.
And we are to think that long term investment in Europe is a good idea? While it does not matter that short term a recession has already taken root in Europe; this march to war in the future ensures that Europe will face much harsher difficult times ahead.
Already the BOE ( Bank of England ) has forecast contracting economic activity into mid 2024. This means that not only companies and households will suffer but so will pension plans. As it is if the BOE had not intervened the other month several pension plans would have collapsed due to their leveraged debt exposures attained while chasing elusive yields. When the 6th largest economy is declining ( dropped to 6th place with India now in 5th) the shift by focus is startling and clear to what directions should occur over what has occurred. However absence of sight and hearing suggests historical errors will be eagerly followed over a change of direction. Sadly, this is a much wider problem.
In Canada, the other day the insightful fool called Freeland who is Finance Minister declared that Canadians can buy cheaper French’s Mustard over Dijon to cope with the times. How disconnected is she from reality, when one in four people in cities like Toronto have difficulty putting food on the table? Sadly, folks like her seem to exist in larger numbers in political office. Reminds me of that famous quote of Marie Antoinette “let them eat cake”.
Nations expending capital on armies are simply not consuming nations rather it is money spent on “guns and not butter”. And we can readily see what is happening in the Ukraine which is not a positive billboard for more war. And as history repeats as it has so many times this training and money spent will be wasted. What of the training of Afghanistan troops to fight the Taliban, abandoned and forced to flee with their families? Who by the way are now being hired as mercenaries for Wagner to fight in the Ukraine on the behalf of Russia, while supporting their families. Is this the brilliance of foreign policy spending? This at a time when in America infrastructure is left to crumble as cities decay.
If voices do not cry for peace over war then economies and social order is headed into a darkness not seen before in a long time. And not to voice concern over dubious elections occurring now from America to Brazil suggests a real breakdown in a world we have known. It is a time when the demand for new technological advance by providing real jobs is needed over allowing a stagnation of nations and people’s aspirations. Otherwise the future will dim for youth who are relied upon to build the future and is a truly sad commentary about the baby boomer generation that did not do better. And allowed socialism to creep into democratic nations reducing them into fascism countries who destroy more than they produce.
end
PAUL ALEXANDER
Vitamin D: Is it that important in reducing mortality, even outside of the COVID disaster? Well, YES; “Vitamin D Deficiency Increases Mortality Risk in the UK Biobank”; Odds of all-cause mortality
in the genetic analysis were estimated to increase by 25% (odds ratio, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.35]) for participants with a measured 25-(OH)D concentration of 25 nmol/L compared with 50 nmol/L.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 10 |
SOURCE:
Vitamin D Deficiency Increases Mortality Risk in the UK Biobank
| Open in app or online“Temporary mild heart muscle cell damage after booster vaccination”; Müller, “We found elevated cardiac troponin levels in a higher proportion of vaccinees than expected. From the earlier, passive…passive observation of severe cases, out of 100,000 vaccinated, around 35 would develop heart muscle inflammation; myocardial cell damage in 22 of the 777 participants (2.8% & not expect 0.0035)DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 10 SAVE▷ LISTEN University of Basel and the University Hospital Basel‘We found elevated cardiac troponin levels in a higher proportion of vaccinees than expected. From the earlier, passive observation of the severe cases, it was concluded that out of 100,000 vaccinated people, around 35 would develop heart muscle inflammation. In our study, we found evidence of mild, transient myocardial cell damage in 22 of the 777 participants, which is 2.8 percent instead of the expected 0.0035 percent. SOURCE:Temporary mild heart muscle cell damage after booster vaccination‘An interdisciplinary research team from the University of Basel and the University Hospital Basel examined the effects of the Covid-19 booster vaccination on the heart muscle. Temporary, mild damage is more common than previously assumed, according to their result, which has not yet been reviewed by a specialist journal. In the conversation, the cardiologist Prof. Dr. Christian Müller enters the results…Our focus was on rare but relevant effects of the first Covid booster on heart muscle cells. So far, this phenomenon has only been passively observed and not actively sought. So there was only data from severe cases of heart muscle inflammation, especially in young men, who had to be treated in the hospital. Our question was how common damage to heart muscle cells actually occurs after the Covid booster. To do this, we measured a marker called “cardiac troponin” in the blood of employees at the university hospital three days after the booster vaccination. If the amount of cardiac troponin rises above the normal range, this indicates damage to heart muscle cells. We also wanted to investigate how long damage lasts.(Editor’s note: For more information on the study, see the context box.)See offer on FREE ‘Presidential Takedown’ book:Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s NewsletterURGENT on FREE Book ‘Presential Takedown, how Fauci & deepstate conspired to use pandemic & lockdowns to topple Trump’: FREE book as Christmas gift once you are paid annual or founding member, upgradeOffer ends: December 20th 2022 and again, for all annual and founding subscribers. I made the decision to also give the book to prior annual and founding members and not just those who subscribe now. I wanted to show my appreciation for your support…Read more |
VACCINE IMPACT
Ukraine’s Largest and Most Modern City has No Electricity or Running Water – Mission Accomplished?
November 10, 2022 12:32 pm
The plight of people living in Ukraine has taken a backseat to the theatrics of the U.S. mid-term elections for the past week or so, so if you have not seen any of the news reports coming out of Ukraine, it appears that the war is effectively over, as the capital city of Kyiv, along with other major urban areas, have had their infrastructure destroyed, as people face cold weather with no electricity, and have to line up for hours just to get water. And while just a few weeks ago the corporate media was whipping everyone up into a frenzy about possible nuclear strikes by Russia, or false flag attacks inside Ukraine which would have escalated the war, this week the corporate media is widely reporting that negotiations with Russia, by both the U.S. as well as Ukraine, are now back on the table. If such negotiations ultimately end up with Russia hanging on to their annexed territories that they now claim are part of Russia, does that mean Russia “won”? Well, that would depend on what your view is regarding why this conflict began in the first place. As we reported back in September, an alleged leaked document from the U.S. military think tank RAND Corporation that was published about 1 month before Russia invaded Ukraine, stated that a weakened Germany and weakened Europe would strengthen the U.S. economy, by exporting more energy to Europe in place of the cheap energy they were purchasing from Russia, and by increasing U.S. military spending. And that seems to be exactly what has happened. So from that point of view, the Billionaires on Wall Street that control Big Oil and private corporations with defense contracts raking in $BILLIONS to send weapons to Europe, are the big winners, regardless of the outcome of the war.
The Petrodollar-Saudi Axis Is Why Washington Hates Iran
November 10, 2022 1:26 pm
Why has Iran incurred such wrath from the American military-industrial complex establishment? The regime’s Sturm und Drang regarding Iran—and, for that matter, any state that even intimates that it will conduct trade in oil without the dollar, cf. Russia—is all about the petrodollar system. Just like the Federal Reserve system, the petrodollar cabal has to reign at or near the top of operative institutions that the vast majority of Americans have “kinda, sorta heard about” and yet possess no idea of the extent to which said things suppress American prosperity and prospects for the future. Most have no idea why or how the Saudis can fund everything from genocidal proxy wars against Iran to upstart professional golf tours.
VACCINE INJURY/
Watch this video as the lawyer investigating trucker protests collapses during proceedings! No doubt he was vaccinated.
(zerohedge)
Lawyer For Canadian Commission Investigating Trucker Protests Collapses During Proceedings
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 07:20 PM
Gabriel Poliquin, a lawyer for the Public Order Emergency Commission “investigating” the circumstances that led to Justin Trudeau’s recent use of emergency powers, violently collapsed during commission proceedings with no indication from his family or the Canadian media as to the cause.
The Commission is tasked with outlining the legality or illegality of the government’s attempt to use terrorist based laws to put pressure on the mass trucker protests in Ontario.
The protesters were using civil disobedience actions against covid mandates and vaccine passports.
Trudeau specifically targeted fundraising for the protests, threatening individuals and groups with possible charges of aiding and abetting terrorists, and froze bank accounts of those involved. The government also tried to confiscate goods and fuel brought to the protesters by sympathetic supporters.
If history is any indication, such government commissions are generally designed to justify federal trespasses and bury independent investigations before they can take place.
While it is not known what triggered Poliquin’s collapse during questioning, surely many people will be wondering if he is suffering from a new heart condition featuring myocarditis or blood clotting.
END
Listen to her story!
(Mayberry/EpochTimes)
‘We’re Not Permitted To Make The Connection’: Social Worker Shares Aftermath Of COVID Vaccine Injury
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 11:00 PM
Authored by Carly Mayberry via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
As a social worker known for her expertise when handling high-stress conflict management cases, Angela Loerzel Swafford figured she’d navigate her own concerns when it came to addressing her employers’ vaccination mandate last fall.
And she definitely had concerns.
Like many hospitals and health systems across the nation during that time, the hospital where the 46-year-old was and is still employed required their health workers to get the jab. But Swafford suffers from a venous malformation, a condition where veins in the body develop in an unusual way. Because the abnormality can increase the risk of developing blood clots and deep vein thrombosis, she was hesitant about getting the COVID jab.
Still, worried about the possibility of losing the job she loved, the licensed clinical social worker (LCSW) practicing in both Oregon and Washington, was willing to do what was needed to protect her patients from COVID-19.
“I love that job,” said Swafford who had always gotten the flu vaccine every year to protect the vulnerable patients she visits in hospice care. “I have this concern about my own safety but I also understand what I need to do to protect the community.”
“It stops with you,” she added, or so she had always been told.
No Space for Questions
Swafford reached out to a few of her health providers, asking which vaccine would be best for her situation. However, she claimed that she didn’t feel supported during her inquiry and decision-making process.
“I think there should be space that we can be curious and pause and ask questions,” she said, noting she did express her health concerns but that her employer and health providers didn’t really allow any questions. “I feel that the physicians had a script and I was not heard and was kind of pushed through.”
Seizure-like Symptoms, Blurred Vision
After being one of the last of her cohort of colleagues to receive the first Pfizer shot, what transpired next for Swafford was nothing short of horrifying.
Four hours later she started noticing pain in her upper body and difficulty charting her patients. Driving home that night, she lost orientation as to where she was.
“Taking the exit to my house, I remember it felt like my face was exploding in pinpricks–like I had all of these sharp needle feelings all over my face,” she recalled. “My tongue, lips, and face felt swollen, my vision was blurred and I wasn’t processing information.”
Once home, the strange sensations were followed by a repeated jerking of her whole body, what she said resembled Tonic-Clonic seizures. She also experienced blurred vision and terrible headaches.
“The biggest thing was my vision, confusion in my thinking, trying to walk with coordination and dizziness,” she went on. “I couldn’t figure things out.”
During some neurology psychiatry testing, Swafford said she fell under the two percentile of the people in her peer group when it came to her “processing speed” and “impaired ability to learn new information.”
“They found I’m not encoding new information–that my processing is really slow,” she explained.
Ultimately, Swafford was diagnosed with a severe adverse reaction to the mRNA vaccine.
Now, more than a year later after undergoing numerous lab tests, MRIs, CT scans, and a plethora of visits to healthcare professionals (including neurologists, an epidemiologist, an occupational medicine specialist, a speech therapist, and others), Swafford continues to suffer cognitively, from an abrupt change in her vision and sleep abnormalities. She doesn’t drive because of double vision and a loss of peripheral vision and hasn’t returned to work.
Doctors: Neurological Side Effects Have Been More Unusual
Meanwhile, despite cases of myocarditis having made the headlines in terms of adverse reactions to the vaccines, neurological side effects like the ones experienced by Swafford, haven’t gotten the same attention.
That, along with what she described as her health providers’ lack of acknowledgment, has been frustrating for both her and her husband.
“We kept running into providers in every system saying, ‘We’re not permitted to make the connection’ or ‘It doesn’t mean anything until studies support it’ or ‘It doesn’t exist until the scientific community writes about it,” recounted Swafford.
“One of the saddest things I see is the diagnosis of functional neurologic disorder (FND) lumped together for these patients,” said Dr. Diane Counce, medical director of neurology and neurodiagnostics in Alabama, noting that such a diagnosis makes patients feel like “it’s all in their head.”
Counce describes Swafford’s symptoms as neurological.
Data from the Center for Disease Control’s Vaccine Adverse Reporting System (VAERS) calculated through Oct. 28, 2022, has shown a total of over 37,000 reported neurological symptoms.
In terms of neurological symptoms similar to Swafford’s, there have been 4,659 cases of balance disorder, 10,190 cases of migraines, 5,192 seizures, and 573 seizure-like phenomena on VAERS. Also documented among many other neurological incidents were 4,737 cases of visual impairment.
“When you have a patient like Swafford who within four hours is having symptoms that she’s never experienced before, clearly this is not just a migraine,” added Counce, noting the number of physicians that aren’t willing to take on patients like her or don’t know how to treat such patients. “She’s one of the more severe cases I’ve heard of experiencing multiple things including confusion, headaches, visual, hearing, mood, and behavioral changes.”
After reviewing Swafford’s case, epidemiologist, professor, and author Daniel Halperin also concluded that as a young, healthy person who experienced these symptoms soon after receiving the shot, the most likely explanation for the health ailments must be vaccine-related.
Like many experts, Halperin, who has written myriad peer review education articles and the book, “Facing COVID Without Panic: 12 Common Myths and 12 Lesser Known Facts about the Pandemic: Clearly Explained by an Epidemiologist,” acknowledges that no vaccine is 100 percent safe.
“Early on, we thought vaccination was important not only to help people be protected from death or severe illness, but also because it could greatly cut down on the transmission of COVID,” Halperin said, noting the common sense approach and the belief that health professionals should get the vaccine not just for themselves but for their patients and others they might be exposed to.
“Now that we know they don’t actually do very much to prevent transmission, I’m not sure how convincing that argument is anymore,” he added.
Prescribing a Vaccine Injury Regimen
For her part, Counce is working with Swafford and has prescribed a regimen for her that includes intermittent fasting—known to have a strong effect on promoting immune system homeostasis, taking probiotics and certain supplements including vitamin D, resveratrol, melatonin, and omega-3 fatty acids.
“It’s frustrating we don’t have specific labs to check these things,” Counce added, noting that when she started seeing patients developing negative symptoms from the vaccinations, injuries seemed to be all over the place.
But, she said when she sees a vaccine-injured patient, she has ruled it down to about five different things that could be going on with their body. These include decreased immunity, autoimmune response, inflammatory/histamine response (similar to Mast Cell Syndrome), fibrin activation causing micro clotting, and amyloidosis (a disease that occurs when a protein called amyloid builds up in organs).
Counce said it’s been shown by an electron microscope that damage has been done to the cells’ mitochondria, which likely contributes to brain fog and fatigue that patients experience.
As a neurologist, she reported seeing an increasing number of vaccine-injured patients with personality changes, sleep issues, and nerve and muscle issues, among others.
“It’s hard to say,” said Counce, who has been treating Swafford for the last month, as to what her prognosis is and if she will ultimately improve or not.
“All vaccine injuries respond so differently,” said Counce. “This is a brave new world for us.”
‘I’m Really Out’
Meanwhile, Angela Loerzel Swafford and her family wish she could get a “do-over” when it comes to getting that jab.
“I did the shot to keep everything and more so to protect the community I work in because that’s what they were telling me, but in the end, I lost everything,” she said. “I am not the same.”
“Angela would like people to understand that there are folks out there that have actually suffered a vaccine injury and it’s totally okay to say ‘Yep, that happened,’” said her husband. “Too many doctors are willing to say ‘There are no studies to support that,’ instead of gathering the evidence.”
“I think it was either you’re vaccinated and you’re with us or you’re not,” recalled Swafford, regarding the mood at the time. Now, she said, most of her friends don’t know how to be with her because she’s so different from who she once was.
“It became you’re in or you’re out and I’m really out,” she said.
end
This is important: see the huge excess deaths recorded in thse various countries
(Robert H)
SpikeFree on Twitter: “
/14 Romania. https://t.co/opqSukWopR” / Twitter
Robert Hryniak
9:04 AM (16 minutes ago)toThe jabs hurthttps://twitter.com/_naturisti/status/1590347730194690048end
SLAY NEWS//
| READ MORERon Johnson Gets Massive Win for GOP, Beats Democrat Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin U.S Senate RaceRepublican Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has won re-election to a third term in Wisconsin, NBC News is projecting.READ MOREDeSantis ‘Rewrites Political Map’ with Landslide Victory, Declares ‘Florida Is Where Woke Goes to Die’Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared that voters have “rewritten the political map” in Florida by securing a landslide win that saw the formerly solid-blue Miami-Dade County turn red. END |
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK
Michael Every on the day’s most important events:
“Workouts Win Out”: Amid Soaring Inflation Households Increasingly Reassessing What To Spend Money On
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 01:25 PM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
As inflation continues to bite, households are increasingly reassessing what to spend their money on.
According to a YouGov poll, Britons are more likely to spend less on new clothes than they are to cut their gym memberships and TV subscriptions.
“Workouts win out”, as Bloomberg headlined this morning. However, isn’t this just demonstrating the fallacy of gyms? People sign up as a New Year’s resolution, only to be stuck with a membership for the remainder of the year.
Consumers’ spending cuts were clearly visible in UK’s Q3 GDP. The economy shrank 0.2% q/q. Although that is better than the expected decline, the GDP data gives a deceivingly positive picture. The more recent monthly GDP indicator shows a 0.6% m/m decline for September, pointing to a sharper decline in the underlying pace. And, as our UK strategist notes, the drop in GDP is predominantly driven by a fall in private consumption (0.5%). In fact, the output in consumer-facing services is now 10% lower than it was prior to the pandemic. On top of that, business investment fell by 0.5% q/q. So the two key components of domestic demand are weakening.
On the other hand, there have been increases in government spending, particularly for public administration and defence, and government investment.
If we look at external trade: export volumes increased by 8.0% q/q, though much of this was driven by an increase in non-monetary gold.
Import volumes fell by 3.2% in the latest quarter, driven by falls in chemicals, manufactures and other goods. So net trade adds to GDP, but for completely wrong reasons.
Whereas inflation is still a major headache for consumers, US CPI was a reason for markets to rally yesterday. Inflation euphoria struck traders as the US CPI print for October came in at ‘just’ 7.7%. That is a solid drop compared to September’s 8.2%. Moreover, the rate of core inflation decelerated to 6.3% y/y from the prior month’s 6.6%. Did anyone say ‘pivot’? Markets certainly seemed to think so – at least in terms of the implied expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike. Odds of a 75bp hike vanished from Fed funds futures, long-dated yields dropped, and equities rallied.
This renewed ‘pivot’-optimism was not contained to the US. European fixed income and equities rallied alongside their US counterparts, despite quite hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel.
The ECB executive board member presented a slide deck with the ominous title “Persistence of inflation in the euro area”, in which she noted that “the risk of inflation persistence has risen further” and that “only a deep recession with a sharp rise in unemployment would dampen inflation, but this is unlikely now.”
Ms. Schnabel concluded that the ECB cannot afford to pause and that their policy will have to move into restrictive territory. Is this the central bank fearing the start of a wage-price spiral?
Wage demands are increasing as households feel inflation squeeze their disposable incomes. And, thanks to a relatively tight labour market, some bargaining power seems to have shifted from employers to employees. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported on the latest trend this earnings season: large European firms warning for increased wage pressures next year – and the risk of strikes if these demands aren’t met.
Higher wage bills add to the price pressures companies were already facing, and many companies –particularly SMEs– will only have limited room to increase pay.
After all, productivity has hardly increased, so higher wages will erode profit margins. So any wage increases will probably come out of employees’ own pockets: Bloomberg continues that many of these European firms warn that they may have to raise prices again next year, but this time as a direct result of higher wages.
Even if wage demands are not met fully, this dynamic could still lead to a wage-price spiral that delays the return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% target.
In her slides, Schnabel referred to a new ‘wage tracker’ that has been developed by Indeed and the Central Bank of Ireland. It determines wage developments based on the texts of job advertisements, and the data is therefore much more timely than the ECB’s current indicators. Although the index is still new and could overstate wage dynamics as it only reports on ‘job changers’, it suggests that wage pressures have accelerated markedly in recent months.
So, while we are reluctant to call this a wage-price spiral yet, the ECB must be careful that the economy is not drawn into one. That could be as difficult to get out of as it is to get out of an annual gym membership.
END
7.OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC
end
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 1.0314 UP 0.01223 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY MIXED
USA/ YEN 139.37 DOWN 2.386 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.1781 UP 0.0085
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 51.16 PTS OR 1.68%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1,224.62 POINTS OR 7.74%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 2.86% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 1,224.62 PTS OR 7.74%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 51.16 PTS OR 1.68%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 2.86%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 547.14 OR 1.97%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1761.75
silver:$21.55
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 106.64 DOWN 1.40 POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.111% UP 16 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.233% DOWN 1 AND 2/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.04%// DOWN 18 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.03 DOWN 24 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.0195% DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0049 DOWN .0031 or 31 basis points//
USA/Japan: 146.06 UP 0.782 OR YEN DOWN 78 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.1404 DOWN .0148 OR 15 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0040 OR 40 BASIS pts to 1.3457
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP) AT 7.1870
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1937
TURKISH LIRA: 18.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.245
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 28 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.865% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.138 DOWN 18 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 108.53 DOWN 1.93 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 6.82 PTS OR 0.09%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 479.77 POINTS OR 3.51%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 126.26 PTS OR 1.96%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 92.80 OR 1.15%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 614.21 PTS OR 2.58%
WTI Oil price 86.68 12: EST
Brent Oil: 93.67 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 60.53// ROUBLE UP 0 AND 78/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.027
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.3115
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0353 UP .01618 OR 162 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1833 UP .01398 or 140 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.380%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.66 DOWN 3.077//YEN UP 308 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3255 DOWN 0.0077 (CDN dollar, UP 77 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 89.05
Brent OIL: 96.16
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS pts to 3.811%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 4.059%
USA dollar index:106.20 DOWN 1.84 POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.54
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.54 UP 0 AND 1/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 32.49 PTS OR 0.10 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 211.05 PTS OR 1.82%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.42 DOWN 1.11 PTS (4.72)%
GLD: $164.35 UP 1.09 OR 0.67%
SLV/ $19.95 DOWN $0.02 OR 0.10%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Dollar Collapses As Stocks Soar On Biggest Short-Squeeze Ever
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 04:00 PM
Cooling inflation, easing COVID lockdowns (maybe), and chatter around Russia-Ukraine ‘peace’ hopes were the triumvirate of bullish themes that outweighed any contagion from the Sam Bankrun-Fraud shitshow that sparked carnage in crypto this week.
Everything’s awesome again, right?
After yesterday’s avalanche of less-hawkishness (none of them were actually dovish), today was a small flurry of FedSpeak from Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the central bank has more work to do to tame inflation, but the risks that the US central bank goes too far have increased after a string of large interest-rate increases.
“I think that as we have raised rates that the risk of over tightening has increased,” Collins said Thursday during an interview with Bloomberg. She added:
“I do think we’re going to need to raise rates further.”
Collins said a smaller, more “deliberate” rate increase should not be confused for a sign that the Fed is backing down from the task of curbing price pressures.
So the message seems to be uniform – more to come but slowing pace and overtightening risk is a thing (which is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Powell said during the press conference). That FedSpeak on top of the cooling CPI sent Fed rate trajectory expectations dramatically dovishly lower on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
And that in turn sent stocks soaring to their best week since Nov 6th 2020, led by a 9% explosion in the Nasdaq. The Dow lagged, up “only 4%) on the week!
The S&P hit 4,000 today, breaking above the 50- and 100-DMAs on the week (200DMA is at 4080)…
On the week, tech (longest duration stocks) were the biggest gainers (up over 10%) while Utes lagged (up only 1.4%)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dash-for-trash exploded…
The last two days have seen the biggest short-squeeze on record, based on Goldman’s “Most Shorted” basket. The 19% surge from Wednesday’s close is bigger than March 2020’s rebound surge and Jan 2021’s meltup to the highs…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s nothing compared to ‘unprofitable tech’ stocks which exploded over 26% higher in the last two days…
Source: Bloomberg
While stocks and crypto have become increasingly correlated once again in recent weeks, the last two days, thanks to FTX contagion, have sparked a major decoupling…
Source: Bloomberg
US Treasuries were also aggressively bid this week with the belly down a stunning 45bps at the Thursday close (30Y -30bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Cash bonds were closed today but futures indicate some modest giveback with 10Y yields up around 4bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended yesterday’s plunge today for the biggest 2-day drop since March 2009. Down 5 of the last 6 days, the world’s reserve currency has lost over 5% against its fiat peers to 3-month lows, breaking below its 50- and 100-DMAs…
Source: Bloomberg
With the dollar tumbling, China’s yuan surged to one month highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Japan’s yen exploded higher, up 6 big figures in 2 days and dramatically off the intervention lows in October…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were a bloodbath this week after SBF and his girlfriend were exposed. Bitcoin & Ethereum were down over 20% on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin puked to a $15k handle at its lows this week, the lowest since Nov 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold soared this week, topping $1770 – its highest in 3 months. This was gold’s best week since March 2020…
Oil ended the week lower, despite gains in the last couple of days on the back of China possibly easing its Zero-COVID strategy…
Finally, we have seen these bear market rallies before…
Source: Bloomberg
And stocks appear to have priced in a dovish Fed without considering that a dovish Fed will only be that way if the economy shits the bed… and while the terminal rate is lower (back below 5%), it is still very high…
Source: Bloomberg
Is the third time the charm? Or will Powell piss in the punchbowl again next week?
END
USA ELECTION RESULTS:
What a banana republic; In Nevada a key vote counting facility went dark
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Cameras Go Dark At Vote Counting Facility In Key Nevada County
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 10:50 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Cameras at the vote counting facility in a Nevada county still counting midterm election votes stopped broadcasting overnight, officials said on Nov. 10.
The livestream computer application that provides the feeds “lost connection with” the cameras at 11:24 p.m. on Wednesday, according to Bethany Drysdale, a spokesperson for Washoe County.
All staff members left for the night about an hour before the issue and none returned until 7 a.m. on Thursday morning, county officials said.
The connection was restored just before 8 a.m. on Nov. 10.
The Washoe County security administrator was said to have reviewed security cameras at the building, which run on a different system. The cameras showed that no person entered the ballot room or Registrar’s Office while the live feeds were cut off.
Security personnel are working to make that footage public.
A review of staff badges also indicated that no one entered the ballot room or office.
“In the future we will look for a solution that would prevent software disruptions or simply not offer a courtesy livestream feed,” Drysdale said in a statement. “Washoe County has been at the forefront of trying to innovate election transparency, but we have moved from an election night to a much longer election timeframe. The technology we are using to provide this livestream cannot keep up with these demands. We suggest enhancing transparency with security cameras rather than courtesy livestream cameras in future elections.”
Washoe County is among multiple counties in Nevada that have not yet completed tallying for the midterms, even though polls closed on Tuesday night.
Some 100,000 ballots, all cast by mail, remained uncounted as of Thursday afternoon, the Reno Gazette Journal reported. That included more than 50,000 ballots in Clark County.
State law requires election officials to count absentee ballots as long as they were postmarked by Election Day and received by Sunday.
In the latest tranche of votes, reported Thursday by Washoe County and other jurisdictions, Democrats Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Nevada Secretary of State hopeful Francisco Aguilar gained more votes than their rivals, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Republican Jim Marchant, according to KOLO-TV.
Laxalt still leads Cortez Masto by about 9,000 votes while Aguilar has about 5,350 more votes than Marchant, according to results posted by the office of the Nevada Secretary of State.
Laxalt and the senator have each said they’re confident they will be the winner when the vote count is finally done.
That race could end up determining which party controls the Senate, which is currently split 50–50. Democrats can break ties through Vice President Kamala Harris, the president of the upper chamber.
Two other races—Arizona and Georgia, the latter heading to a runoff—remain uncalled. The race in Alaska is uncalled but Republicans have the top two vote-getters.
EARLY MORNING TRADING
ii) USA DATA
Not good for the Fed as inflation expectations are rising and confidence crashing
(zerohedge)
Powell’s Favorite Sentiment Signal Shows Inflation Expectations Rising, Confidence Crashing
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 10:09 AM
After yesterday’s exuberant response to a very slight rollover in core CPI from 40 year highs, all eyes are switched to Jay Powell’s latest signal of public willingness to believe The Fed has this ‘inflation thing’ under control – UMich inflation expectations – which unexpectedly rose in October.
The preliminary November data shows that inflation expectations rose for the second straight month with 1Y exp up from 5.0% to 5.1% and 5-10Y exp up from 2.9% to 3.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
Analysts expected preliminary November headline sentiment to slow, led by a drop in current conditions. They were right but the order of magnitude is considerable as the headline print plunged from 59.9 to 54.7 (59.5 exp) led by a collapse in current conditions.
This has erased over half the gains during the rebound since June.
Source: Bloomberg
All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices.
The report showed that nearly half of consumers said inflation was eroding their living standards, leading many from lower- and middle-income families to change their spending habits.
“Higher-income consumers, whose outlooks were darkened by continued turbulence in stock and housing markets, will likely pull back their spending going forward,” Hsu said.
“With overall sentiment remaining low, these factors highlight the risk of recession in the quarters ahead.”
Homebuying conditions crashed to a new record low…
Source: Bloomberg
“Continued uncertainty over inflation expectations suggests that such entrenchment in the future is still possible,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
JPMorgan warns that the FTX crypto exchange will spark a cascade of margin calls The balance sheet of Almeida and FTX are under question
(zerohedge)
JPMorgan Warns FTX Collapse Will Spark “Cascade Of Margin Calls”
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 06:00 PM
Unlike the high profile crypto-linked blowups earlier this year, JPMorgan believes that there is something different about the ongoing FTX implosion.
First the bad news: as JPM flows and liquidity strategist Nick Panigirtzoglou writes overnight, “given the size and interlinkages of both FTX and Alameda Research with other entities of the crypto ecosystem including DeFi platforms it looks likely that a new cascade of margin calls, deleveraging and crypto company/platform failures is starting similar to what we saw last May/June following the collapse of Terra.”
Then again, this is the same Panigirtzoglou who just a few weeks ago was busy praising crypto’s nascent recovery. Nothing like a one-off event to totally U-turn your entire thesis.
To be sure, that doesn’t mean he is wrong, and this is how he frames the current quandary facing the crypto space – the $8bn of Alameda Research liabilities reported in the press “is big enough to create a similar wave of deleveraging to that seen following the $20bn Terra USD collapse last May. And similar to what we saw after the collapse of Terra USD, this deleveraging is likely to last for at least a few weeks unless a rescue for Alameda Research and FTX is agreed quickly.”
Yet what makes this new phase of deleveraging more problematic is that the number of entities with stronger balance sheets able to rescue those with low capital and high leverage is shrinking within the crypto ecosystem. If nothing else, SBF was frequently referred to as the next JPMorgan (not any more). FTX and Alameda Research had emerged last May/June as the main entities with apparently strong balance sheets to rescue weaker and more leveraged entities such as BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius.
But now that the balance sheet strength of Alameda Research and FTX is under question only a few months after being perceived as strong balance sheet entities, it creates a confidence crisis and reduces the appetite of other crypto companies to come to the rescue.
What is certain, according to Panigirtzoglou, is that the collapse of Alameda Research/FTX will increase investor and regulatory pressure on crypto entities to disclose more information about their balance sheets, to safeguard client assets, to limit asset concentration and will induce more diligent risk management including management of counterparty risk among crypto market participants.
Paradoxically, FTX had been preferred over Binance by institutional clients such as hedge funds, so the past days’ events will likely change the way institutional investors interact with exchanges to ensure their assets are protected.
In this context, JPM notes that it is encouraging that nine exchanges including Binance, Gate.io, KuCoin, Poloniex, Bitget, Huobi, OKX, Deribit and Bybit have issued statements that they would publish their Merkle tree reserve certificates to increase transparency. Merkle trees allow Exchanges to store each user account’s hash value of assets in the leaf nodes of the Merkle tree. Assets on a leaf node can be audited and verified by a third party
On the positive side, and while it might take several weeks until the current deleveraging cycle peaks, the JPM strategist believes that “the hit to crypto market cap is likely to be smaller than post Terra given previous deleveraging.”
One metric to quantify the previous deleveraging is shown in the chart below, which depicts JPM’s position proxy for CME bitcoin futures: this position proxy stands close to levels last seen in January 2020 pointing to rather advanced deleveraging.
The deleveraging phase that followed the Terra collapse had induced a 50% decline in crypto market cap from around $1.7tr at the beginning of May to a low of $0.86tr by mid-June. With the crypto market cap standing at just above $1tr before the FTX/Alameda Research collapse, JPM’s guess is that the crypto market will find a floor above $500bn in the current deleveraging phase.
Another way of thinking about the downside from here is the bitcoin production cost which historically acted as a floor for the bitcoin price. At the moment, this production cost stands at $15k but it is likely to revisit the $13k low seen over the summer months. A production cost of $13k implies 25% downside from here which would bring the crypto market cap to a low of $650bn.
More in the full JPM report available to pro subs in the usual place.
end
My goodness: Twitter bleeding cash badly and may seek bankruptcy protection
(zerohedge)
“Difficult Times Ahead”: Musk Says Twitter Bankruptcy Possible As FTC Expresses “Deep Concern”
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 06:20 PM
Twitter boss Elon Musk told employees at a recent all-hands meeting that the company is losing so much money that “bankruptcy is not out of the question,” according to The Information.
Twitter, which hasn’t turned a profit since 2019, has seen a “massive drop” in revenue according to Musk, as advertisers step back from spending campaigns.
Musk also suggested during the meeting that the company’s future depends on the success of the revamped $8 per month Twitter Blue subscription service – which is currently being bombarded by bots, scammers, and impersonators.
“The reason we’re going hardcore on subscribers is to keep Twitter alive,” Musk said, according to The Information, adding “Without significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will not survive the upcoming economic downturn.“
Musk also announced that the company’s “work from anywhere” policy is now canceled, telling Platformer “If you can physically make it to an office and you don’t show up, resignation accepted.”
Banks balking at holding debt?
As Bloomberg notes, Wall Street banks that lent Musk $13 billion to fund Musk’s buyout have been quietly approaching hedge funds to see if they would be interested in chunks of buyout debt at deeply discounted prices as low as 60 cents on the dollar – which would mark one of the deepest discounts in a decade.
The lukewarm investor reception shows just how big of an albatross the Twitter debt is becoming for a Morgan Stanley-led cohort that committed to finance Musk’s acquisition of the social-media firm back in April, before credit markets cratered. The seven banks are now saddled with risky loans that they never intended to keep on their books, and face an increasingly uphill battle to minimize losses. -Bloomberg
In particular, the banks want to unload their $6.5 billion leveraged loan portion of the financing, and if the loans are trading at 60 cents, that implies everything below the secured tranche in the cap structure is impaired (more or less a donut), and the EV on the company is around $8 billion.
Meanwhile, the Federal Trade Commission has sounded the alarm over an exodus of top employees from the social media giant – the latest of whom was the company’s head of moderation and safety, Yoel Roth, who – as a longstanding left-leaning executive, provided some level cover for Musk.
The government watchdog agency said that it was “tracking the developments at Twitter with deep concern,” and that it’s considering taking action to ensure that the company is complying with a ‘consent order’ which requires the company to comply with certain privacy and security requirements related to allegations of past data misuse.
Twitter was first put under a consent order in 2011, and it agreed to a new order earlier this year. If the FTC finds Twitter is not complying with that order, it could fine the company hundreds of millions of dollars, potentially damaging the company’s already precarious financial state. -WaPo
“No CEO or company is above the law, and companies must follow our consent decrees,” said FTC director of public affairs, Douglas Farrar. “Our revised consent order gives us new tools to ensure compliance, and we are prepared to use them.”
According to the report, FTC staffers said they were most concerned about the rapid rollout of new features which have yet to undergo full security reviews governed by the FTC consent decree. The agency also objected to Musk requiring staff to work in the office at least 40 hours per week, effective Thursday.
Former FTC officials warned that the departures of key privacy and security officials, as well as some of Musk’s proposed changes to Twitter products, opened the company to serious regulatory peril. -WaPo
Employees were not happy in the company’s slack channel following the all-hands meeting.
“What’s the motivation? Work hard or get fired?” asked one employee.
“How do you plan to restore totally destroyed trust?” asked another.
“I am ethically not okay with making the richest person in the world even richer. Also not okay with this alpha dog mentality – it’s already trickling down.”
end
FTX’s BankmanFried faces SEC probe as their assets are frozen by a Bahamas regulator
(zerohedge0
Bankman-Fried Faces SEC Probe, FTX Assets Frozen By Bahamas Regulator
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 06:27 PM
Update (1945ET): Things just went to ’11’ for the Dem darling crypto billionaire as Bloomberg reports that, according to a person familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is being investigated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for potential violations of securities rules as the regulator deepens its probe into his crumbling FTX crypto empire.
The SEC is scrutinizing Bankman-Fried’s involvement in recent moves that helped push FTX into a liquidity crisis, said the person, who asked not to be named discussing the confidential inquiry.
FTX, the American platform FTX US, and Bankman-Fried’s trading house Alameda Research are already under investigation by the SEC, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. The Justice Department is also looking into the situation.
* * *
The Bahamas Securities Commission has frozen the assets of FTX Digital Markets “and related parties” and has appointed a provisional liquidator as the Bahamas securities regulator seeks to place the beleaguered crypto exchange into receivership, i.e. bankruptcy, the agency said in a statement issued late on Thursday.
The lockdown comes just hours after Sam Bankman-Fried said that he is closing his affiliated trading house at the center of the FTX scandal, Alameda Research, and after FTX said it may halt trading in FTX US, the remote US-based platform which has so far avoided scrutiny.
An asset freeze was “the prudent course of action” to preserve assets and stabilize the company, the agency said.
“The commission is aware of public statements suggesting that clients’ assets were mishandled, mismanaged and/or transferred to Alameda Research. Based on the commission’s information, any such actions would have been contrary to normal governance, without client consent and potentially unlawful” it warned
Meanwhile, while unconfirmed but certainly not unlikely, a rumor emerged on Twitter also late on Thursday that SBF had been arrested on the tarmac at the Bahamas airport.
I have no way of confirming this. Also, perhaps he went on his own volition. Also, perhaps not true.— Kevin Abosch (@kevinabosch) November 10, 2022
The Bahamas crackdown comes as Japan’s government also ordered FTX.com’s local subsidiary to suspend some operations, saying it has no structure in place to properly offer cryptocurrency exchange services to users.
And while authorities finally crackdown on the biggest crypto fraud in history, who may or may not have been arrested, investors are starting to count their money, or rather lack thereof.
Take the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which said it had “invested” $95 million in Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX International and FTX.US since October 2021. Pension plan initially invested $75 million in two FTX entities Oct. 2021 and made a follow-on investment of $20 million in January in FTX.US
The fund wanted to gain small-scale exposure to an emerging area in the financial technology sector, it says in a statement
“Naturally, not all of the investments in this early-stage asset class perform to expectations.”
The pension fund, realizing that the money is gone… all gone, was quick to add that any financial loss on this investment will have limited impact on the fund. FTX investment represents less than 0.05% of fund’s net assets.
Late on Thursday we also learned that the FTX-linked loss at Genesis Trading, an institutional crypto market maker, was nearly double, or $175 million “in locked funds” in its FTX account.
And speaking of “gone… all gone”, it is ordinary retail investors who poured their life savings into crypto, for whom the stunning demise of FTX.com is a worst-case scenario.
“I’m done and I think a lot of retail traders are done,” said Christ Keuchkerian, a 36-year-old FTX.com customer in Quebec who works in IT and hadn’t been able to withdraw his funds as of Thursday. “I don’t think at this point I want to put any more money into this.”
Keuchkerian first started using FTX about a year ago, investing approximately C$4,500 ($3,360) in tokens like Bitcoin and Ether. He considered the platform “too big to fail.” When he heard the Binance deal fell apart, his heart started palpitating.
“If I’ve learned anything, it’s that centralized exchanges are dead,” he said. “The philosophy behind this movement was great, but the execution has been horrible. The people running the exchanges have been horrible.”
It’s not just FTX customers who may be hurt by Bankman-Fried’s downfall. The billionaire agreed to bail out Voyager in a $1.4 billion deal in September, as part of his distressed crypto buying spree, but the transaction still hasn’t closed. Voyager declined to comment on the status of the deal on Thursday.
John Gould, a 45-year-old software developer in Birmingham, Alabama, had about $2,000 in his Voyager account, mostly in altcoins, when the platform froze withdrawals. When FTX first announced it would acquire Voyager’s assets, he was optimistic he would be able to cash out, but he doesn’t think that will happen now.
“This is a like domino effect,” he said. “It’s definitely shaken my faith in exchanges.”
As Bloomberg adds, some retail traders who plan to keep investing in crypto say they no longer trust the exchanges and are moving their tokens to offline wallets. Considering that this is precisely what this website and other exchange skeptics have been saying for years is the only proper protocol, one can only say better late than never. If only it didn’t take massive losses to make people realize just what’s at stake.
end
Mises’s McMaken delves through the election
(McMaken/Mises)
The Election Won’t Change Much In DC. The Real Battle Is Now In The States
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 07:40 PM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,
The votes are still being counted, but one thing is already clear: very little will change in Washington after this election.
The House of Representatives will likely be controlled by Republicans, but the majority enjoyed by the GOP in the House will be small. This will provide a veto over some of the worst legislation being pushed by the Biden administration, but history has made it abundantly clear that the GOP is more than willing to compromise and “work with” Democrat administrations rather than simply kill bills.
As for the US Senate, we’re still waiting on the results in Nevada and Arizona. Georgia is headed to a runoff election. But it’s clear that the Senate will again be close to a 50-50 split. If the GOP manages to eke out a majority, that will help sink some of the worst legislation and some of the worst presidential appointees. But the direction of policy will not fundamentally change.
After all, so much of federal policy is now determined by the executive branch that moderate changes in party leadership in Congress will do very little to change the course of the nation’s administrative agencies such as the EPA, the IRS, and the FBI. These agencies have immense power over the daily lives of countless Americans, yet even sizable majorities of so-called conservatives have shown little stomach for doing much to rein in this power. Certainly, the small GOP majority now headed for the House will do little.
From Global Warming to Money Printing to Foreign Policy, Expect Little Change
This all combines to mean we should expect very little change on policies at the federal level. For example, we can expect to keep hearing plenty about the evil of fossil fuels. The administration will continue to press for less drilling for oil and gas, and the war on coal will continue. The administration will continue to issue new edicts for “fighting global warming.” This, of course, will continue to drive up the cost of living.
On foreign policy, it was clear nothing much would change short of an overwhelming victory by “America First” types in Congress. That hasn’t happened, so we can expect more of the same foreign interventionism we’re seeing now. The US regime will add to the $65 billion it has already sent to Ukraine, and will continually ratchet up its involvement in the region as with a recent deployment of US troops near the Ukraine border. Even worse, the US will likely continue to flirt with nuclear war, as the Pentagon now has more leeway in using nuclear arms in the regime’s new National Defense Strategy document. The US will not, any time soon, remove the approximately 900 American troops that are currently conducting a regional occupation in Syria.
Naturally, as far as social spending goes, we can expect zero change. Under Donald Trump, Republicans signed off on massive new spending increases, and were headed towards approving trillion-dollar deficits even before 2020. With covid, of course, spending exploded even more, and only a small handful of Republicans expressed doubts. (Trump naturally threw a tantrum about even this small bit of opposition.) The only disagreements we’ll see in Washington in the next two years will be over how exactly to run up the next massive annual deficit.
Indeed, if the economy continues to slide as we’re now seeing it do—with thousands of new layoffs coming from the tech sector just this week, and with real estate falling—we can expect a new bipartisan consensus in Washington calling for a wide variety of new “stimulus” programs. Neither party will want to be seen as the party of austerity.
The Biggest Changes Will Be at the State Level
While Washington will keep up with the same disastrous policies, the real change we’ll see will be at the state level. The GOP did not do especially well in this election with state level offices, and the Republicans lost control of legislative chambers in at least Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, the GOP gained supermajorities in both the house and senate in Florida, plus supermajorities in the state senates of North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Moreover, Nevada’s state house is trending toward the GOP. Republicans still control a majority of statehouses and have even added to the tally of state GOP control in recent cycles prior to 2022.
What all this likely means is a continued divergence between places like Washington State, New York State, and California on the one hand, and Florida, Texas, and Ohio on the other. On matters like abortion, schools, immigration, guns, and energy policy, the differences between the two blocs will only continue to grow. Covid helped illustrate the importance of state-level policy and the very different legal environments that actually exist between so-called red states and blue states. This has not been forgotten, and many state policymakers will increasingly see themselves as the last defense against federal power. As one GOP operative put it in Politico: “With minimal gains at the federal level, the Republican power we held and gained last night in the states will be all the more important for stopping Joe Biden’s disastrous agenda.”
In a column titled “Red states are building a nation within a nation” this was noted by Ronald Brownstein at CNN who clearly disapproves of efforts within red states to separate themselves from federal political trends. He writes:
[R]ed states, supported by Republican-appointed judges, are engaging in a multi-front offensive to seize control of national policy even while Democrats hold the White House and nominally control both the House and Senate. The red states are moving social policy sharply to the right within their borders on issues from abortion to LGBTQ rights and classroom censorship, while simultaneously working to hobble the ability of either the federal government or their own largest metro areas to set a different course.
To a degree unimaginable even a decade ago, this broad offensive increasingly looks like an effort to define a nation within a nation – one operating with a set of rules and policies that diverge from the rest of America more than in almost any previous era.
Brownstein frames it all as a sinister plot against the Left’s favorite interest groups, and he no doubt exaggerates the magnitude of it all. But he is right that red states’ governments do have the ability to set up obstacles to federal policy. Gone are the days when state governments simply fell into line every time the federal government demanded some new capitulation. One example of this is the recent conflict between the Biden Administration and the Arizona government on the matter of border security. The state government had places shipping containers along the border to form a makeshift wall. The administration demanded their removal. The state refused to move them.
National Divorce Is Inevitable
We should expect more of this type of thing in which state governments simply refuse to play along with federal policy. Democrat-controlled state governments have done this for years, of course, with policies like creating “sanctuary cities” for immigrants or legalizing recreational marijuana. (The latter has not become virtually mainstream thanks to state level resistance.)
But the fact is that state governments do have the ability to push back against federal policy makers. States can interfere with federal education policy. States can refuse to enforce federal gun laws. States can make their own abortion policy. States can refuse to do what they’re told.
Over time, this will serve to further build cultural and legal differences between different states, just as the covid lockdowns and mask mandates made it clear that there were real differences between states. As the differences become more evident, this will even encourage residents to relocate to places that better suit their political preferences. For example, we’re even now hearing that American leftists are leaving the lefty enclave of Austin, Texas. It turns out Austin is in the middle of Texas, and Texas has become too “red” for some people. It’s hard to guess how numerous these cases really are, of course, but relocating for political reasons does appear to be far more meaningful than it used to be.
Over time, this will continue to build a real cultural divide that will inevitably lead to de facto political division between these blocs of states. “E pluribus unum” was never more than a political slogan. It’s becoming less convincing every day. “National divorce” will increasingly be evident on the horizon.
In the short term, with Washington, DC poised to change so little, policy changes will increasingly come within the context of state governments defining themselves as being either against national elites (as in Florida), or for them (as in California.) This is where the real political action will be.
end
Another indicator of faltering demand: loan demand crashes to depression levels
(zerohedge)
Loan Demand For Mortgage Loans Crashes To Depression Levels
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 08:00 PM
In all the chaos over the past few days, we missed the release of the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey which came out Monday. The results were striking: as one would expect from an economy in recession (and in some cases, depression), in nearly all categories, banks are reporting both tighter lending standards and sliding demand for new loans…
… and nowhere more so than in mortgages, both qualifying and otherwise, where demand has collapsed to “depression” levels as a result of the fastest every surge in interest rates.
While C&I loans are still doing ok, and demand for credit card debt is still near record highs – to be expected at a time when revolving credit debt is soaring at the fastest pace in history, record APRs be damned – it’s only a matter of time before these two core credit categories follow mortgage loan demand into purgatory at which point the US economy will be a complete disaster.
Here are some more details courtesy of Goldman:
- Lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans tightened in 2022 Q3. 39% of banks on net tightened lending standards for large and medium-market firms (vs. 24% on net in the previous quarter), while the number of banks tightening lending standards for small firms increased to 32% (vs. 22% on net in the previous quarter). 30% of banks on net widened spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds for large firms (vs. 12% on net in the previous quarter), while 25% on net widened spreads for small firms (vs. 13% on net in the previous quarter).
- For banks that tightened credit standards or terms for C&I loans or credit lines, all cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook as playing a role; 61% cited reduced tolerance for risk; 59% cited a worsening of industry-specific problems; 39% cited decreased liquidity in the secondary market for these loans; 26% cited less aggressive competition from other lenders; 20% cited a deterioration in their bank’s current or expected capital position; and 20% cited a deterioration in their current or expected liquidity position as playing a role.
- Demand for C&I loans from large- and medium-sized firms weakened in Q3. 9% of banks on net reported weaker demand for C&I loans for large and medium-market firms, compared to 24% on net reporting stronger demand in the previous survey. 22% of banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans from small firms, compared to 18% reporting stronger demand the previous quarter.
- Standards for commercial real estate (CRE) loans tightened in 2022Q3. 58% (+10pp) of banks on net reported tightening credit standards for construction and land development loans, and 40% (+10pp) on net reported tightening lending standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties. The number of banks that reported tightening standards for loans secured by non-farm non-residential properties increased to 53% (+11pp). Demand for loans secured by multifamily residential properties, loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties, and construction and land development loans all decreased.
- Credit standards on mortgage loans tightened somewhat. Standards eased slightly or were basically unchanged for non-jumbo, non-GSE eligible (-3.4pp to -3.4%) and GSE-eligible mortgages (flat at +1.7%). Meanwhile, standards tightened for Qualified Mortgage jumbo (-0.1pp to +5.2%); non-Qualified Mortgage jumbo (+3.8pp to +7.4%); non-Qualified Mortgage non-jumbo (-1.8pp to +3.8%); and subprime residential mortgages (-1.4pp to +11.1%).
- Banks’ willingness to make consumer installment loans decreased in Q3 (-7% on net vs. +5% on net previously). The portion of banks tightening credit standards for approving credit card applications increased (+19pp to +19%), and 2% of banks on net tightened standards for auto loans (flat). The portion of banks reporting stronger demand for credit card loans decreased but remained positive (-7pp to +11% on net), while demand for auto loans also declined (-12pp to -28% on net).
But loan supply and demand aside, the punchline from the survey is that “most banks assigned probabilities between 40 and 80 percent to the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months, with no bank reporting a probability less than 20 percent. Although banks in general assigned relatively high probabilities to a recession occurring in the next 12 months, most banks reported expecting the recession to be mild to moderate, should one occur. In addition, most foreign banks assigned a probability between 40 and 80 percent that a recession would occur in the next 12 months.”
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS///TRUCKING PROBLEMS///INFLATION WATCH
Huge trucking giant laying off thousands. This is the largest layoff in the history of freight brokerage
(zerohedge)
C.H. Robinson Announces Largest Layoff In The History Of Freight Brokerage
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 08:40 AM
It’s not just tech giants and Wall Street firms any more. As FreightWaves reports, truck brokerage giant C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. is laying off between 1,000 and 1,200 employees, most of whom are at the vice president and general manager level, according to sources familiar with the situation. The move, as FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller reports, “might be the largest layoff in the history of freight brokerages, not related to a bankruptcy or acquisition.“
The move comes a week after the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company reported weaker-than-expected, third-quarter results and strongly hinted at impending labor cost reductions to combat the impact of slowing demand and increased costs.
“We got ahead of ourselves in terms of head count,” said Bob Biesterfeld, Robinson’s president and CEO, on a post-earnings call. Robinson employs nearly 17,000 people.
Biesterfeld said he did not forecast truckload demand declining as rapidly as it did, as well as spot market and contract rates deflating considerably.
In a statement Wednesday night, the company would not confirm the number of layoffs and disputed the number cited by sources, adding:
“As we said last week in our Q3 earnings, changes in market conditions, coupled with many successful endeavors on our digital roadmap directed at scaling our model to be more efficient, mean we are in a position to reduce our overall cost structure.
“As a result, we’re eliminating some positions at C.H. Robinson. These are not easy decisions, because we recognize the significant contribution of the impacted employees. We have tried to approach this with as much respect and empathy for our former colleagues as possible and are providing transition assistance.”
In late February, Robinson entered into a cooperation agreement with Ancora Holdings Group LLC, an activist investor group. It also named Henry Maier, a former CEO of FedEx Ground, the U.S. ground delivery unit of FedEx Corp., (NYSE: FDX) and Jay Winship, a financial executive, as independent directors.
In addition, Robinson’s board formed a four-member capital allocation and planning committee, which the company said would recommend capital allocation, operations and strategies, including enhanced transparency and disclosures to shareholders. The panel is chaired by Winship and initially includes Scott Anderson, the company’s chairman, as well as Biesterfeld and Maier.
END
SWAMP STORIES
My goodness: Maricopa County may take until early next week to process just 400,000 ballots?
(zerohedge)
Arizona’s Maricopa County To Take Until “Early Next Week” To Process 400,000 Ballots
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 05:00 PM
While Brazil can count tens of millions of ballots in a matter of hours after any given election, Maricopa County, Arizona is trying its darnedest to make America look like a banana republic – given that most Americans remember entire elections being called in one night up until 2020, hanging chads notwithstanding.
On Thursday, the Chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors told CNN that it’s going to take until “early next week” to count 400,000 ballots.
Simple math suggests it would take 100 people, hand-counting at a snail’s pace of 10 ballots per minute, less than a day to count all of the ballots – but we digress. Instead, Maricopa County appears to have 6 people sitting around a table giggling like school girls.
“The hand count audit has begun,” wrote Maricopa County’s election department on Twitter on Wednesday.
What they lack in speed, they make up for in interesting hair!
Oh…
As the Epoch Times notes, They added that it is “an important step in ensuring the accuracy of the 2022 General Election results.”
The reason behind the hand-count audit is to “compare the results of the original count to the hand count to assure that the tabulation equipment is working properly” and counting votes in an accurate manner, says the Arizona secretary of state’s website.
Voters in Arizona are still awaiting the final results of the gubernatorial and Senate races. The secretary of state’s office estimates that there are about 400,000 uncounted ballots that are still outstanding.
On Tuesday, top Maricopa County officials stated that vote tabulating equipment had problems processing ballots. Later in the day, authorities blamed the problem on a “printer issue” after telling voters to place their completed ballots in a drop box.
County Supervisor Bill Gates said that about 7 percent of ballots that were cast on Election Day were put in drop boxes after the tabulators suffered problems.
“There is no perfect election. Yesterday was not a perfect election,” Gates said. “We will learn from it and do better.”
Arizona and Maricopa officials have received a bevy of criticism from Republicans over the exceptionally slow counting process. Authorities said they might be finished by Friday.
Candidates Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Katie Hobbs, the Democrat secretary of state, maintain narrow leads over their Republican counterparts. GOP candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters are challenging in the governor’s race and Senate race, respectively.
“We’re going to go back to small precincts where it’s easier to detect problems and easier to fix them and it’ll be easier to hand count votes as well,” Lake told Fox News on Wednesday night. “These are some of the things I’d like to see happen. I’ll work with the Legislature.”
end
Trump’s tax case before the Supreme Court
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Biden Admin Tells Supreme Court To Let House Democrats Have Trump’s Taxes
THURSDAY, NOV 10, 2022 – 08:20 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
President Joe Biden’s administration is urging the Supreme Court to let House Democrats get access to former President Donald Trump’s tax documents.
In a 30-page brief filed Nov. 10, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar said that earlier rulings finding House Democrats’ request had legitimate legislative intent were correct, and that the nation’s top court should not diverge from them.
U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, said the request from House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) served a valid legislative purpose because Neal says he will use the returns to examine whether new or adjusted legislation is needed for the IRS program that audits presidents.
An appeals court later upheld the ruling.
Trump then lodged an emergency application for a stay to the Supreme Court, which triggered a temporary block on Neal’s panel obtaining the documents.
Supreme Court Justice John Roberts, a George W. Bush appointee, entered the stay and asked the government to respond to Trump by Nov. 10 at noon.
Trump’s lawyers said there is “a fair prospect” that the Supreme Court will stay the lower court rulings and deny the Democrat request, and that without a stay Trump will suffer issues such as a loss of confidentiality.
Prelogar, a Biden appointee, argued Trump had not met the bar for a stay, which includes an applicant showing a reasonable probability that four justices will agree to review the appeals court ruling and showing there is a fair prospect that a majority of the court would reverse the ruling.
Because the appeals court relied on Supreme Court precedent, including Trump v. Mazars, there’s no need for the Supreme Court to review the ruling, Prelogar asserted.
“The court of appeals’ factbound application of the Mazars factors does not warrant further review. And this case would be a particularly poor vehicle for elaborating on the Mazars analysis,” she said, noting that the two lower courts “each took somewhat different approaches to the separation-of-powers questions presented here, but all of them reached the same conclusion—and none of them regarded the case as particularly close.”
“The application should be denied,” she added.
Roberts has not yet indicated whether he will solicit a reply to the brief from Trump’s lawyers.
Roberts is handling the application because he oversees the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
He can keep the stay in place or lift it on his own, or choose to refer the matter to the full court for consideration.
If the stay had not been imposed, the IRS was under orders to transmit Trump documents from tax years 2015 to 2020 to Neal.
end
What an idiot!!
(Vadem/EpochTimes)
Supreme Court’s Sotomayor Denies NYC Workers’ Bid To Halt Vax Mandate
FRIDAY, NOV 11, 2022 – 09:05 AM
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,
Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor turned away an emergency application on Nov. 10 to halt New York City’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate that applies to firefighters, police officers, and other government employees.
The appeal was from workers who were fired after the city refused their requests to be exempted on religious grounds. Many people object to the various COVID-19 vaccines for religious reasons because aborted human fetal cell lines were involved in their testing, development, or production.
The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), a public interest law firm specializing in religious freedom cases, argued in the application filed on Nov. 2 that it was unfair that unvaccinated adult entertainers and athletes were exempted from the mandate while other unvaccinated workers were forced into compliance, and were fired if they refused the jab.
While pandemic-era restrictions have been easing in recent months, some remain.
The Supreme Court threw out a major federal vaccination mandate in January.
The high court voted 6–3 on Jan. 13 in National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) v. Department of Labor to block the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s private-sector vaccination regime. On the same day, the court ruled the opposite way in Biden v. Missouri, voting 5-4 to uphold a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services rule requiring more than 10 million employees at health care facilities that participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs to be vaccinated against COVID-19.
Sotomayor decided the matter on her own, without referring the case to the full Supreme Court, which is her prerogative as a justice after receiving an emergency application. She provided no reasons for her ruling. The case is New Yorkers for Religious Liberty v. City of New York, court file 22A389.
ADF had argued in a brief supporting the application that the employees urgently needed relief because they are “suffering the loss of First Amendment rights, are facing deadlines to move out of homes in foreclosure or with past-due rents, are suffering health problems due to loss of their city health insurance and the stress of having no regular income, and resorting to food stamps and Medicaid just to keep their families afloat.”
John Bursch, senior counsel and vice president of appellate advocacy at ADF, said when the application was filed that “these city heroes have dedicated their lives to serving their neighbors and keeping their city running safely and efficiently, yet New York City officials suspended and fired them because they cannot take the COVID-19 vaccine without violating their sincere religious beliefs.
“But for athletes, entertainers, and strippers, the city found a way to loosen its mandate.”
KING REPORT
| The King Report for November 11, 2022 Issue 6885 | Independent View of the News |
| A two-tenths better than expected October CPI (0.3% m/m & 7.7% y/y) induced manic buying of financial assets on Thursday. This underscores two points: The Street is extremely bullish and has been looking for any excuse to pour into stocks for weeks. Secondly, even though the Fed has aggressively hiked rates at its past four FOMC Meetings, monetary policy is still extremely promiscuous. Fed Funds are still deeply negative, as are US bond yields; and there is still way too much liquidity in the system. Daily, institutions park over $2 trillion of excess funds in the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility. There are $3.0678 trillion of reserve balances at Fed banks. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20221110/ The higher stocks go, the harder it is for the Fed to slow rate hikes. Surging equity prices only add to the extreme amount of inflationary kinder in the US and global financial systems. Within 30 minutes of the NYSE open, the S&P 500 was up over 4%. Within 40 minutes of the NYSE open, Nasdaq jumped 5% and the Nasdaq 100 soared 5.6%. Amazon hit +14.56% at 10:54 ET. The dollar/yen plunged 3.1%, the biggest one-day decline since 2016. USZs jumped over 3%. Pundits explained the incontinent rally on the notion that the Fed will reduce its rate hike pattern. For months, the market has been expecting the Fed to reduce its rate hike to 50 bps on December 16! Perceived chief Fed Whisper @NickTimiraos: The October inflation report is likely to keep the Fed on track to approve a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase next month. Officials had already signaled they wanted to slow the pace of rises and were somewhat insensitive to near-term inflation data. Fed officials have signaled they would prefer to see evidence that inflation is moderating before they pause rate rises. The hot August and September CPI prints restarted the clock on gathering a string of sequential moderations in inflation. Powell last week said he “never thought” that a string of lower inflation readings was necessarily the “appropriate test” to identify the terminal rate. But he also said he thought estimates of terminal rate were higher because recent data hadn’t been breaking the right way. https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1590720425721737216?s=02 Media and economists issued mixed reviews on the significance of the October CPI decline. Market Watch: Shelter costs — the biggest services’ component in the CPI that account for roughly one-third of the overall index — rose 6.9% on the year and saw the largest monthly rise since 1990… Inflation holds grip on US economy in October as prices remain stubbornly high “Even as we see a slowdown, prices remain elevated and have a long way to go before normalizing.“… https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/inflation-holds-grip-us-economy-october-prices-remain-stubbornly-high Inflation remains stubbornly high at 7.7 percent – Used car prices… fell 2.4 percent from September… And energy services prices declined, thanks to a 4.6 percent monthly drop in the price of natural gas utilities… However, gasoline price ticked up 4 percent from September to October, reversing three straight months of monthly decreases… https://t.co/r7rQ1xNors Closing results: Nasdaq + 7.35%; Nasdaq 100 +7.49%; S&P 500 Index +5.54%; Ny Fang+ +9.39%; USZs were +4 18/32 at the NYSE close! Gold was +45.80. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Index surged 10.89%!!! The Dollar Index was -2.42% at 16:15 ET, the worst decline in ten years. @bespokeinvest: The last 5 sessions have seen the fourth-largest drop in the USD (Bloomberg USD Index) since at least 2005; only larger declines were in December 2008, April 2009, and April 2020. The explosive financial market rally alarmed and frightened the Fed. Several high Fed officials tried to dispel Fed Pivot and similar narratives. They reiterated Powell’s warning that rates must go higher albeit at a slower pace. Powell explicitly told the known universe a week ago that the pace of rate hikes would slow but the duration of hikes could be longer and the peak rate higher than people expect. Philly Fed President Harker: Inflation Still Remains Too High “What we really need to see is a sustained decline in a number of inflation indicators before we let up on tightening monetary policy” @Jenniferisms: Dallas Fed Pres Lorie Logan says Oct’s CPI data “were a welcome relief, but there’s still a long way to go.” She thinks it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes to assess progress on the economy, but says a slower pace shouldn’t be taken to mean easier policy. Kashkari Says Fed Will Do What Is Needed to Curb High InflationMinneapolis Fed chief says ‘entirely premature’ to talk pivotSays Fed policy acts with a lag, central bank on a good pathMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says policymakers are trying hard to achieve a soft landing for the US economy but will not flinch from curbing high inflation… https://t.co/jjeKyWwOFa Fed’s Kashkari: talk of pivot ‘premature,’ on good policy path “At the next meeting, which is mid-December, I don’t know what we are going to do,” he said. “There’s a lot of talk in the public about might we raise rates by 50 basis points, might we raise rates by 75 basis points – those are certainly going to be on the table, but could it be something beyond that? It’s possible too.”… https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kashkari-any-talk-pivot-is-entirely-premature-2022-11-10/ Kashkari: Our traditional economic models aren’t working very well right now Fed’s Daly, despite ‘welcome’ CPI data, still wants to raise benchmark rate above 4.5%-4.75% range – San Francisco Fed president says doesn’t want to make the mistake of ending rate hikes too soon like the 1970s… “It is indeed good news that inflation moderated. One month of data does not a victory make,” she added. An annual inflation rate of 7.7% is “very limited relief” to consumers, Daly added… In September, the Fed penciled in a terminal rate of 4.5%-4.75%. Daly said she thought the Fed would have to “tighten a little more than that to be “sufficiently restrictive,”… https://t.co/ZboJJbHGcc Fed’s Daly: I Don’t See Anything in the incoming data that alters the trajectory of rate increases…I would prefer to move a little too high on rates, then not enoughWe don’t want to overtighten, but do want to do the job completely KC Fed President George: CPI Inflation is declining but remains uncomfortably high.It might take higher interest rates for a while to persuade households to keep their savings.Early signs suggest the labor market may be cooling, but it will be some time before we see a persistent slowdown in wage growthIt is important to avoid unnecessarily contributing to financial market volatilityThe degree of tightening required is determined by the economy and inflation dynamics, and cannot be predictedIt is advantageous to increase interest rates gradually and deliberately Cleveland Fed President Mester: Inflation is still widespread and service prices are not slowing.Fed needs to press forward on rate rises to cool inflationInflation will moderate and reach the Fed’s target in 2025Main risk on inflation is that Fed doesn’t hike rates enoughThe labor market is still very tight The Cleveland Fed notes that its inflation model is running hotter than BLS’s CPI! @ClevelandFed: The October monthly readings of median CPI and trimmed mean CPI were 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, lower than in recent months, but still pointing to an elevated underlying trend in inflation. See the data: http://clefed.org/CPI Bident said the CPI Report shows a much-needed break in inflation ahead of the holidays. As Biden celebrates election results, corporate America lays off workers with recession looming Twitter… laid off half its workforce last week… Intel is cutting thousands of employees, perhaps 20%. Microsoft laid off about 1,000 workers this week. Ride-hailing firm Lyft said it will lay off about 13% of its workforce. Digital payments firm Stripe is cutting its staff by about 14%… Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers increased 13% to 33,843 in October, the highest since February 2021, according to a recent report by the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas… https://t.co/LL3BI2rBkx Positive aspects of previous session Rapid financial asset rally on renewed Fed Pivot hope & hype Negative aspects of previous session Fed officials en masse warned that Fed Pivot narratives are delusions Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long will the incontinent rally last? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3924.86 Previous session High/Low: 3958.33; 3859.89 Apple Limits iPhone File-Sharing Tool Used for Protests in ChinaCompany puts 10-minute cap on receiving files in AirDropChange is made in China, but will eventually expand globallyApple Inc. has limited the AirDrop wireless file-sharing feature on iPhones in China after the mechanism was used by protesters to spread images to other iPhone owners… https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/apple-limits-iphone-file-sharing-tool-used-for-protests-in-china Does US firms’ wokeism/virtue signaling in America provide expiation for fealty to the CCP? LA drops charges against Konnech CEO over storing data on Chinese servers https://t.co/hlaab0R6Hg (Who ‘dropped a dime’ on the LA DA?) ZH: CPI Miss Sparks Third Biggest Short Squeeze Ever https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fading-cpi-fedspeak-spark-panic-bid-stocks-bonds-bullion-dollar-crashes The Fed Balance Sheet: +$2.016B Today – The bond market is closed for Veterans’ Day. This contributed to the ginormous short squeeze yesterday. Due to yesterday’s titanic financial asset explosion, there is no telling what will transpire today. The estimated 3+ Sigma move in stocks and bonds has put prices at extremely overbought levels – but there could still be a sizable amount of short covering today. Plus, volatility should remain elevated. ESZs are +6.00 at 20:15 ET. Expected econ data: UM Sentiment 59.5, Current Conditions 63.5, Expectations 55, 1-yr Inflation 5.1% S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3791; 100-day MA: 3900; 150-day MA: 3973; 200-day MA: 4085 DJIA 50-day MA: 30,897; 100-day MA: 31,506; 150-day MA: 31,940; 200-day MA: 32,546 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4528.64 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3805.09 triggers a sell signal Last night, Trump might have committed political suicide by unleashing a vile attack on DeSantis. Trump Launches… Attack on DeSantis, Who Is Busy Helping Florida Prepare for Hurricane NewsCorp, which is Fox, the Wall Street Journal, and the no longer great New York Post… is all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious, an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations, who didn’t have to close up his State, but did, unlike other Republican Governors, whose overall numbers for a Republican, were just average—middle of the pack—including COVID, and who has the advantage of SUNSHINE… Ron came to me in desperate shape in 2017—he was politically dead, losing in a landslide to a very good Agriculture Commissioner, Adam Putnam… Ron had low approval, bad polls, and no money, but he said that if I would Endorse him, he could win… so I said, “Let’s give it a shot, Ron.”… I also fixed his campaign, which had completely fallen apart… after the Race, when votes were being stolen by the corrupt Election process in Broward County… I sent in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys, and the ballot theft immediately ended, just prior to them running out of the votes necessary to win. I stopped his Election from being stolen… (Can’t wait to see DeSantis use ‘Donald Chump!’) https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/11/trump-launches-lengthy-attack-on-ron-desantis-who-is-busy-helping-florida-prepare-for-hurricane/ @RealSaavedra: Trump is going to cost Repubs the Georgia runoff election again, like he did in 2020. Trump Has 3 Choices: Good, Bad, & Ugly for The Republican Party Victor Davis Hanson explains, Trump has three choices; good (step away having ‘paved the way for a new republican agenda’), bad (stay in the running and shift attention from himself to agenda – which is hard because he is divisive for many), and ugly (be himself and run as himself being bigger than the party and seeking vengeance for 2020) in 2024… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-has-3-choices-good-bad-ugly-republican-party Republican caucus says Kevin McCarthy does NOT have the votes to be House Speaker… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11413451/Republican-House-Freedom-Caucus-Kevin-McCarthy-House-Speaker.html It’s Election Day +3 yet Arizona and Nevada have still NOT counted thousands of ballots! Arizona’s Maricopa County begins hand count audit as estimated 400K ballots unprocessed https://t.co/CeOTlQaOaF @EricMMatheny: Katie Hobbs has created more election deniers than QAnon ever could. (AZ Sec of State Hobbs is also the Dem candidate for Governor – and she is officiating her own election!) @charliekirk11: In the last 24 hours we have received…. 62,000 new vote totals from Maricopa County. This is third world stuff. Where are the “democracy” people in the media right now? @LisaMarieBoothe: If Democrats actually cared about “democracy,” wouldn’t they want votes counted on Election Night? @KariLake Governor candidate, AZ: “One of the reasons that I will win is the voters in Arizona are tired of shoddy elections that are run by imbeciles. And that’s going to change.” https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1590559526419255296 Clark County with thousands of uncounted votes as nation eyes Nevada Senate race https://t.co/rCAclAIMPT @EndWokeness: 50k ballots left in Clark County, Nevada and it will take 3 days to count them. TUCKER CARLSON: Why did Republicans underperform in the midterms? In Arizona, for example, there is no declared winner in the Senate race or in the governor’s race… Officials in Arizona told CNBC today that they are “prepared to work through Thanksgiving and possibly Christmas as well.”… It seemed easy a week ago, an unpopular president, a faltering economy, an open border, the looming risk of nuclear war (How about that?) put all those together, how could there not be a massive Republican win nationally?… Well, there weren’t—some exceptions—but overall, there weren’t. Joe Biden was not punished back. He was out there bragging about himself today… You want the Republicans to win not simply because they’re so great, but because Democrats are so very bad… We’re speaking specifically of the Republican leadership of the House and the Senate and of the RNC… they took hundreds of millions of dollars to paint the map red and they didn’t. It doesn’t mean they’re evil… It does mean they shouldn’t be promoted. No one should ever be rewarded for failure… You do not reward mediocrity and when you do, things fall apart… All the Twitter pundits are telling you now the candidates were subpar and that was the problem… How much does it matter? Well, let’s see. Joe Biden got elected president two years ago from his basement. John Fetterman became a U.S. senator last night. Does anyone think John Fetterman was a quality candidate?… He won anyway. What does that tell you? It tells you that in some cases, candidate quality is not actually the most important thing. What is? Well, the mechanics of an election… matter sometimes more than any individual running in the election… The rest of the American media amounts to a gigantic filter designed to distort what Republicans are saying. It’s a campaign apparatus and only the Democrats have it…Democrats have far more control of the election machinery and almost total control of the American media and Republicans don’t… Two and a half years ago, the last administration, its Republican allies in Congress, watched passively, seemingly in glassy eyed sedation as the Democratic Party used the pretext of COVID to rewrite election laws around the country in order to get its own candidates into office. They didn’t do it by accident. They knew what they were doing. Last night those laws, many of which are still on the books, paid off generously. John Fetterman bombed in his one public debate. You saw it. He humiliated himself. He made a mockery of the election, but it didn’t matter by that point… Nearly 70% of Democrats had voted early in the Pennsylvania races. Only 20% of Republicans did… These are fixable problems. You can get your message out. You can force the other side if you try hard enough to agree on fair election rules, but you can’t do any of that unless you acknowledge these problems exist… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-republicans-underperform-midterms @johnrackham82: 52% of Fetterman’s votes were mail in ballots. Do you understand what they do now? @realJoelFischer: Over 500,000 of Kathy Hochuls votes were mail in ballots pre-filled, all you had to do is sign. Do you understand what they do now? DeSantis won an historic blowout win in Florida partially because in Florida, ballot harvesting is outlawed; voters need IDs, and DeSantis created an election policing entity. @EddieZipperer: According to Cook Political Report, GOP is ahead in the generic Congressional vote by 6.1 points, which means they exceeded all of the final polls. Even Trafalgar and Rasmussen only clocked it at R+5. https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022 Republicans Have Won 6 Million More Votes than Democrats in House Races, But Gained Relatively Few Seats – The mismatch… reflects the polarized nature of congressional maps. It also reflects the fact that Republican losses against many Democratic incumbents were very narrow. However, it could also suggest that Democrats ran a more effective campaign, concentrating resources where they were needed to defend their vulnerable positions… https://t.co/RLbJ7WaxeL Big Picture, 2022 Midterm Elections Highlight the Distinct Difference Between Ballots and Votes Since the advent of ballot centric focus through mail-in and collection drop-off processes, votes have become increasingly less valuable amid the organizers who wish to control election outcomes. As a direct and specific result, ballot collection has become the key to Democrat party success. The effort to attain votes for candidates is less important than the strategy of collecting ballots… Republicans are running around trying to convince people and win votes. Meanwhile, who needs voters? Democrats have skipped all of that old fashioned stuff and modified all of their electioneering systems to quietly and efficiently collect ballots. Yesterday you saw the outcome… https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/09/big-picture-2020-midterm-elections-highlights-distinct-difference-between-ballots-and-votes/ GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Washington Republicanism lost big Tuesday night. When your “agenda” is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal (“infrastructure”), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose. What are Republicans going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street. Unrig the system. @greg_price11: Mitch McConnell dumping $9 million into Alaska so pro-abortion RINO Lisa Murkowski could beat an America First Republican instead of spending it in Arizona for Blake Masters, whose race is going down to the wire, should be the nail in the coffin for his time as Leader. @LouDobbs: @LeaderMcConnell has got to go! Here is the breakdown of money spent in some battleground senate seats: AZ – Masters $9m vs Kelly $73m; GA – Walker $32m vs Warnock $76m; NV – Laxalt $12m vs Cortes $47m; NH – Buldoc $2m bs Hassan $36m Babylon Bee: Republican Party Staves Off Red Wave “Everyone knows the key to being a good Republican is to muddle your message and make it really squishy so no one knows what you stand for and everyone will like you. Duh!”… At publishing time, Republican strategists were researching ways to keep their power in D.C. without achieving so much power that they’d actually have to become compelling leaders… https://t.co/NilJVsJ2oN Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow: 5. Rove, McConnell, the GOP establishment, etc., have a bad habit of attacking the GOP’s base. They did the same after the red tsunami in 2010, when the Tea Party delivered over 60 GOP seats to the House. 6. They blamed the Tea Party for choosing poor candidates in the GOP Senate primaries; otherwise, it was contended, the GOP would have picked more Senate seats. Truth be told, this crowd was also anti-Reagan decades ago, and supported Gerald Ford, another electoral disaster. 7. It’s time for McConnell and this gang to go. They take credit for raising and spending hundreds of millions of dollars and then blame conservatives (the base) when their efforts fall short. We don’t need any lectures from them. https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1590715251242110976?s=02 @sunnyright: McConnell’s group spent nearly a quarter-billion dollars supporting Republican nominees Trump’s PAC spent little of what it raised, totaling about $15 million in support funds. https://twitter.com/sunnyright/status/1590718543053869057?s=02 (DJT’s) Save America raised $135.2 million from its inception to June 30, 2022, according to FEC data. https://news.yahoo.com/trumps-save-america-pac-raised-090154193.html The NY Post cover yesterday depicted Trump as Humpty Dumpty: Trumpty Dumpty – Don (Who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall – can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again? https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1590533520128356354 Ex-chief investigator for GOP Senator @seanmdav: A lot of Republican consultants and a lot of media buyers… make insane amounts of money to spend insane amounts of money and still lose. There’s a reason Republicans spend so much money on ads and so little on infrastructure, and it’s a huge problem. MSNBC’s Katy Tur suggests Fetterman could run for president: ‘Makes you wonder about his future’ https://t.co/ahT3q1kBJQ @julie_kelly2: SCOOP: Chris Wray announcing new head of DC FBI field office right after the election. As I reported a few weeks ago, Steven D’Antuono—responsible for agents, informant in Whitmer then promoted to DC—is retiring this month. Obviously an attempt to thwart congressional inquiries: D’Antuono led investigation into Jan 6; still hasn’t found the “pipe bomber”; sent agents to arrest Peter Navarro at Reagan airport; sent agents to Mar A Lago raid. Now he’s hightailing it out of the bureau before GOP (likely) takes House. https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1590721870331928576?s=02 Judge strikes down Biden student loan forgiveness plan as unconstitutional “An unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power and must be vacated.” https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/judge-strikes-down-biden-student-loan-forgiveness-plan-unconstitutional |
GREG HUNTER REPORT
Election Psyop, Trump WON, Economy Still Tanking | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog Weekly News Wrap-Up 11.11.22
Election Psyop, Trump WON, Economy Still Tanking
By Greg Hunter On November 11, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups4 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 555 11/11/22)
If you listen only to the lying legacy media (LLM) you would think the 2022 Midterm Election was a huge loss for President Donald Trump. Trump won big despite the cheating, glitches ballot drops (for losing Dems) and the huge psyop that carried on after election day. If you question the cheating, which few do on the LLM, you are an “election denier.” How dare anyone question or object to the massive cheating that has been taken to a well-oiled art form. The “Swamp” or “Uni-party” consisting of Communist Democrats and RINO Republicans work together for a common goal. The two parties just take turns ripping us off.
Trump won because he crisscrossed the country on his own dime backing candidates in the House and the Senate that would try to “Make America Great Again.” Yes, MAGA! To the elite like Schumer, McConnell, Pelosi and the rest of the treasonous political weasels that attack “We the People,” that is crazy talk. Trump’s election record of backing candidates in the 2022 election is a lopsided 219 Wins to only 16 Losses, and it’s hard to tell if the losses were only because of the massive cheating campaign that even LLM dog FOX News will not mention. The Republicans owe Donald Trump a huge thank you for winning back the House and the Senate!!! Let’s hope the Uni-party doesn’t pull another mysterious ballot dump and “win” by cheating again.
Inflation cooled, according to the latest government numbers, to 7.7%. The markets rocked higher, and everyone is once again talking about a Fed pivot to stop the rate hikes and continue the easy money for a few more years. Don’t count on the party to last this time. Layoffs are rocking the country, and mortgage applications just hit an all-time low. The real economy is still sinking, and the numbers don’t lie.
There is much more in the 55-minute news cast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 11.11.22.
Election Psyop, Trump WON, Economy Still Tanking | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Weekly News Wrap-Up 11.11.22
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After the Interview:
Top selling book author and founder of TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com, Michael Snyder, will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Snyder will talk about the huge problems in the economy and his new book called “End Times.”
Just a little note telling you that I am going to take a 3 week break
from writing my blogs, starting on the 17th of November.. I will write some of the major events but it will not be in detail
i am a little burnt out so i am taking a rest.
SEE YOU MONDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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