NOV 14//GOLD AND SILVER CONTINUE TO ADVANCE: GOLD UP $7.30 TO $1773.45//SILVER UP ANOTHER 41 CENTS TO $22.05//PLATINUM DOWN 35 CENTS TO $1027.45//PALLADIUM UP $6.35 TO $2044.05//COVID UPDATES: CHINA CONTINUES WITH ZERO COVID POLICY//CHINA PIVOTS AS THEY PROVIDE MEGA FUNDS TO HELP THEIR AILING REAL ESTATE ECONOMY//VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//FOR FALLOUT FROM THE DEMISE OF FTX//MORE SIGNS OF A CRUMBLING GLOBAL ECONOMY//AMAZON TO LAYOFF THOUSANDS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

November 14, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP  $7,30 to $1773.45

SILVER PRICE CLOSE: UP $0.41  to $22.05

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1771.33

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.99

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $16,726 DOWN 0

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $16,254 DOWN 472

Platinum price closing  DOWN $0.35  AT  $1027.65

Palladium price; closing UP $6.35  at $2044.05

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2358.17 DOLLARS UP 13.31 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1507.09 POUNDS PER OZ UP 12.72 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1705,68 EUROS PER OZ UP 5.90 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,766.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 21
132 C SG AMERICAS 10 3
190 H BMO CAPITAL 12
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 100
661 C JP MORGAN 30 85
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 70 32
800 C MAREX SPEC 10 4
880 C CITIGROUP 8
880 H CITIGROUP 53
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 220 220
MONTH TO DATE: 6,12

JPMORGAN STOPPED  85/220

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    220 NOTICES FOR 22,000  OZ  or 0.6843 TONNES

total notices so far: 6121 contracts for 612,100 oz (19.039 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  357 :  for 1,785,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7.30

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.41

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.553 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 471.923 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1695 CONTRACTS TO 141,894 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.02  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY A TINY  $0.02)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2837 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD A SOME ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF  THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH MINOR SUCCESS .WE HAD MINIMAL  SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AS THE PRICE OF THE METAL REMAINED FLAT . // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. HUGE NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME ATTEMPTED (WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS)  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH ZERO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// HUGE NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:2,525,000 MILLION OZ/    / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -317

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 21,175 contracts: 105.88 million oz  OR 10.588MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2118 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 105.88 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 105.88 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1695 DESPITE OUR  $0.02 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 825 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2837 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 14.185MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS D WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ON THURSDAY.

 WE HAD 2  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  10,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUGE SIZED 13,001 CONTRACTS  TO 508,207 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -687  CONTRACTS.

.

THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $15.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY //  CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS TO NO AVAIL//(MAYBE SOME SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS IF THEY ARE STUPID ENOUGH), ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  WITH CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS. IT SEEMS THAT EVERYBODY WISHES TO BUY BUT NO SELLERS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GIGANTIC 21,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF  $15.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 15,113 OI CONTRACTS (47.00 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2112 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 508,207

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,207 CONTRACTS  WITH 13,001 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS FAILING TO GET OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 2112 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,113 CONTRACTS OR 47.00 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2112) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (13,001): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,113 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS.  WE  HAD ZERO SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 21,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 21.701 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

42,383 CONTRACTS OR 4,238,300 OZ OR 131.828 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4238EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 131.828 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  131.828/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.71% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  131.828 TONNES//INITIAL ( SO FAR MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1695 CONTRACT OI TO  141,894 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 825 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 825  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  825 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  GAIN OF 2012  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 825  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN  OF 2520  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.600MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.02….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY  NIGHT

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,001  CONTRACTS TO 508,874 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $15.25  IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2112 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT SEEMS THAT SPEC SHORTS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE COVERING THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2112 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :  2112  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2112 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED  TOTAL OF 15,113  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2112 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 13,001   CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $15.25//WE ARE FINALLY WITNESSING SOME SPEC SHORTS TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. BANKERS CONTINUE  AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS.  WE ALSO HAD HUGE ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR SPEC SHORTS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE  

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (21.701 TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 21.701 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $15.25) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 15,113 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD  ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND MINIMAL SPEC SHORT COVERINGS..  WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,113 CONTRACTS.//    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 47.00 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (21.701 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $15.25 

WE HAD -317  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,800 CONTRACTS OR 15,800  OZ OR  49.144 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 110,230//  awful//

final gold volumes/yesterday  282,121/  fair to good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 14

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 16,302.532oz

Brinks/JPM
5 KILOBARS


 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today220   notice(s)
22,000  OZ
0.6843 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)856 contracts 
85,600 oz
2.662 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6121 notices
612100
19.039TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:2

i) Out of Brinks:  160.75  (5 kilobars)

ii0 Out of JPMorgan:  16,141.582 oz

total:  16,302.532  oz

total in tonnes: .507 tonnes

Adjustments: 0//  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 1076 contracts having LOST 376 contracts.   We had  586 notices served on FRIDAY so we gained a strong 210

or an additional 21000 OZ (0.653 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December LOST A TINY 6,028 contracts DOWN to 270,021. DEC WILL BE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

JANUARY  GAINED 16 contract to stand at 238.

February gained 19,119 contacts up to 193,707.

We had 220 notice(s) filed today for 58600 oz 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  30  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 220 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 85 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6121) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 1076 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 220 x 100 oz per contract equals 697,700 OZ  OR 21.701 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6121) x 100 oz+   (1076)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (220} x 100 oz} which equals 697,700 oz standing OR 21.701  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  21.701 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,927,397.697 OZ   59.95 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,112,386.834 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,188,196.268  OZ (347.99 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,924,190.566 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,260,799OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 288.04 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 14//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,058,359.780 oz
Brinks
CNT
Loomis




 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory338,371.360 oz
Delaware



 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)2  CONTRACT(S)  
 (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)148 contracts 
(740,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)357 contracts
 (1,785,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks:  394,974.540 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  63,154.610 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 600,230.630 oz

Total withdrawals:   1,058.359.780 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 153.534million oz/297.012 million =51.68% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 

 adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35,322 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 297.012MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 150 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 8 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 90,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 5330 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 71,570

 (WE WILL HAVE A DANDY DEC. DELIVERY MONTH AS THE CONTRACTION IS GOING VERY SLOWLY)

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 31 CONTRACTS UP TO 1387 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:2 for 10,000   oz

Comex volumes:35,691// est. volume today// poor   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 95,236 contracts (  huge)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  357 x 5,000 oz = 1,785,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(150) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 357 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (150)  – number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 2,525,000 oz. 

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:49,371// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 101,267 contracts ( huge)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00:  BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 910.12  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//

NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 471.923 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff  .

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver end the week on an uptrend

With a Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Thursday suggesting that the U.S. inflation rate might at last just be beginning to turn down with a below expectation 7.7% annual increase in October, gold, equities and bitcoin all surged. The gains in equities and bitcoin – particularly the latter – were tempered somewhat on Friday, but gold continued to advance and ended the week above $1,770, its highest level since mid-August. The silver price climbed too and ended the week at close to $21.70, last achieved in mid-June. While equities and bitcoin look vulnerable to falls, to this observer at least, as global economies appear to be sinking into recession, and cryptocurrencies are mired in the FTX collapse, gold and silver may well be at the start of a continuing uptrend, or at least the bulls will be hoping so, although prices were dipping again this morning in Europe.

Certainly there has been a bit of momentum in their favour, though, after a time where they had been largely ignored by most investors. The U.S. dollar has been looking weaker on the forex markets, in part because the big Republican party gains in the U.S. midterm elections have not materialised and there’s even the news over the weekend that the Democrats may have retained control of the Senate, although will still probably lose their majority in the House of Representatives. A weaker dollar tends to benefit gold and silver prices. However we may have to wait until Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data release for confirmation of the inflation downtrend, although the PPI usually follows the lead of the CPI.

The markets, as demonstrated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fedwatch Tool, are now expecting the Fed to start easing its interest rate raising programme as soon as the next FOMC meeting, which is due December 13-14, with only a 50 basis point increase anticipated after an unprecedented four successive 75 basis point rises. The next CPI data release comes out right at the start of the December FOMC meeting, though, and this could have a late influence on the final deliberations on interest rates if this shows an unexpectedly high or low inflation level in November, as could the next Personal Consumption Expenditure Index release (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) due out on December 1st.

Assuming there are no huge surprises on the inflation front we would anticipate gold and silver prices moving in a positive vein, while equities and cryptocurrency prices look vulnerable to us as evidence mounts that the U.S. and global economies are destined for recession. For cryptocurrencies, confidence has been shaken by the FTX crypto exchange tribulations, and fears that this could spread, and this could continue for some time. Some see BTC falling to $13,000 or even much lower before there is any serious recovery.

In Europe, the Ukrainian success in re-occupying Kherson has raised hopes of some kind of ceasefire ahead. Alternatively, there is still considerable trepidation regarding Russia’s likely military response. It now seems to be heavily consolidating its positions on the east side of the Dnieper river from which it could well launch a counter-offensive against in-range Ukrainian targets and vice versa. The Ukraine military may be taking heavy losses in the east of the country though amidst seemingly increasing Russian resistance in Donetsk. There does seem to be something of an impasse developing as winter draws in.

Elsewhere tensions seem to be increasing in the Far East with North Korea testing missiles overflying them over Japan and China continuing with its belligerent claims of overthrowing the Taiwanese government by force if necessary. This latter could precipitate a U.S./China military conflict should it develop with the former committed to coming to Taiwan’s aid. Thus with tensions high in both Asian and Europe, the world remains a dangerous place geopolitically, which could benefit precious metals in the days and months ahead.

14 Nov 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Frank Giustra of the Toronto Star is not happy that Canada’s central bank owns no gold

(Frank Giustra/Toronto Star/GATA)

Frank Giustra: Almost alone, Canada’s central bank owns no gold, and it’s a mistake

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-11-12 09:29Section: Daily Dispatches

By Frank Giustra
Toronto Star
Friday, November 11, 2022

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2022/11/11/canada-should-rebuild-the-gold-reserves-it-sold-off-in-the-2000s-while-the-us-dollar-is-strong.html

Gold is money, full stop. It’s not a shiny pet rock, as the crypto crowd might want to believe. And it’s not some antique instrument that no longer serves a purpose in this new digital world. It has been used as money for thousands of years and while paper currencies have all come and gone (mostly to zero), gold has always retained its value.

For that reason, the central bank of almost every country in the world owns gold — some more than others — as part of their foreign exchange reserves.

Almost every country that is, except Canada.

Canada sold all of its gold holdings over the past 20 years, mostly at rock bottom prices in the early 2000s, much to the astonishment of the “hard-money” crowd and almost anyone who has read a book on economic history.

In a May 2022 interview with Kitco news, former Bank of Canada Gov. David Dodge explained the reasoning behind the bank’s decision to offload its gold holdings. 

“The issue is quite clear, that it costs to hold gold, whereas holding U.S. or Chinese or Euro bonds yields you a return,” said Dodge. “That was a strong view. And a view that our international monetary system was in a place that was sufficiently robust that holding this antique instrument of stability called gold really didn’t make any sense.”

To suggest he was flat-out wrong would be kind. 

While storage costs are a factor in holding gold, since 2000 gold has gone up sixfold and outperformed numerous assets, including the S&P 500. And worse still, the bond returns Dodge was referring to have hovered close to zero since Canada dumped its gold.

For some explanation as to why the Bank of Canada continues with its no-gold policy, I turned to Martin Murenbeeld for some answers. He specializes in gold and foreign exchange markets, as well as domestic-international financial and economic trends and publishes the weekly Gold Monitor. 

From his perspective, Canada does not need to own gold because, as he sees it, the Canadian dollar is a satellite currency to the U.S., making Canada part of a U.S. currency bloc. If the bank ever needed liquidity, it can tap into the swap lines it has with the U.S. Federal Reserve System.

Swap lines are agreements between central banks to exchange their countries’ currencies with one another, used to stabilize markets when markets become stressed. Given the U.S. has the world’s largest gold reserves, Murenbeeld reasons that we can basically ride on America’s coattails. 

Murenbeeld likens the “U.S. currency bloc” to Europe and its EU currency block. 

Fair point, but unlike Canada, even the smallest partners in the EU block own gold. Germany, the dominant economic partner in the EU, has 3,300 tonnes, and even tiny Portugal owns 382 tonnes.

Riding America’s coattails is all fine and well, but what happens if the U.S. experiences a U.S. currency crisis as a result of either its reckless debt growth or its massive money printing? Or worse still, an internal civil war? Should Canada go down with the ship? 

Murenbeeld believes that scenario is certainly possible and if that were to happen, the U.S. would be forced to provide some gold-backing once again to its currency, as it did prior to 1971. That’s why the U.S. will never sell its current gold reserves. 

That said, Canada and the Canadian economy would be banking on an America with a rational and functioning political system, which by today’s standards, is not a very comforting thought.

Also of concern is the prospect of a global monetary system reset, which I wrote about recently. Russia, China, and the other BRICS countries (Brazil, India, and South Africa) in general are jockeying to create an alternative trading currency to the U.S. dollar. They are soliciting and receiving interest from non-aligned countries in the Gulf and Global South. And what have all these countries been doing the past couple of decades, especially in the past 10 years? 

Accumulating gold and reducing their U.S. dollar holdings.

Since 1995, 46,000 tonnes of gold have gone from the West to the East. And the buying continues. Since 2010 central banks around the world have been stocking up on gold, recently at an accelerated pace. In Q3 of this year, a stunning 400 tonnes of gold were purchased by central banks — a lot of it anonymously. 

The likely buyers are the usual suspects; China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia. Why would they be doing this without some future purpose? 

A likely reason is that gold backing would give any new trading currency the credibility it would need to compete with the reigning U.S. dollar. (Keep in mind that even the dollar and every other currency invention in history needed gold backing in its infancy.)

I asked Randy Smallwood, chairman of the World Gold Council, why central banks own gold and continue to add to their reserves. The response is unsurprising to anyone who has studied economic history.

Gold provides a number of benefits. As a diversifier to other FX reserves, gold provides liquidity, safety, and return (when measured over long periods). Gold also has a low correlation to other traditional reserve holdings making it a great hedge asset. It is apolitical, since it is no one’s liability and therefore not associated with the politics of any specific country. It can be stored at home, providing a higher degree of safety from potential interference from a foreign power. 

And lastly, gold can be used as valuable collateral: In several recent episodes, gold has been pledged as collateral to obtain hard currency liquidity during periods of acute market stress.

Using the methodology by which the gold council analyses portfolio reserves of global central banks, I would propose that anything from 5% to 40% gold allocation would offer an optimal risk-to-reward ratio, although I don’t believe the upper range would be realistic for Canada. At 5%, it would represent about 100 tonnes of gold and at 40% it would be about 800 tonnes of gold.

Smallwood summed it by saying, “It’s time for Canada to grow up and act like an adult, building independent, real central-bank reserves that stand the quality test independently of the United States and its dollar. And what better time than today, when the U.S. dollar is so strongly valued relative to all other asset classes?”

That’s a worthwhile recommendation for the Bank of Canada to consider, given the likely prospects of either a U.S. dollar crisis or a bifurcation of the global monetary system.

—–

Frank Giustra is a Canadian businessman, global philanthropist, CEO of the Fiore Group, and co-chair of the International Crisis Group. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star.Canada sold all of its gold holdings over the past 20 years, mostly at rock bottom prices in the early 2000s, much to the astonishment of the “hard-money” crowd and almost anyone who has read a book on economic history.

In a May 2022 interview with Kitco news, former Bank of Canada Gov. David Dodge explained the reasoning behind the bank’s decision to offload its gold holdings. 

“The issue is quite clear, that it costs to hold gold, whereas holding U.S. or Chinese or Euro bonds yields you a return,” said Dodge. “That was a strong view. And a view that our international monetary system was in a place that was sufficiently robust that holding this antique instrument of stability called gold really didn’t make any sense.”

To suggest he was flat-out wrong would be kind. 

While storage costs are a factor in holding gold, since 2000 gold has gone up sixfold and outperformed numerous assets, including the S&P 500. And worse still, the bond returns Dodge was referring to have hovered close to zero since Canada dumped its gold.

For some explanation as to why the Bank of Canada continues with its no-gold policy, I turned to Martin Murenbeeld for some answers. He specializes in gold and foreign exchange markets, as well as domestic-international financial and economic trends and publishes the weekly Gold Monitor. 

From his perspective, Canada does not need to own gold because, as he sees it, the Canadian dollar is a satellite currency to the U.S., making Canada part of a U.S. currency bloc. If the bank ever needed liquidity, it can tap into the swap lines it has with the U.S. Federal Reserve System.

Swap lines are agreements between central banks to exchange their countries’ currencies with one another, used to stabilize markets when markets become stressed. Given the U.S. has the world’s largest gold reserves, Murenbeeld reasons that we can basically ride on America’s coattails. 

Murenbeeld likens the “U.S. currency bloc” to Europe and its EU currency block. 

Fair point, but unlike Canada, even the smallest partners in the EU block own gold. Germany, the dominant economic partner in the EU, has 3,300 tonnes, and even tiny Portugal owns 382 tonnes.

Riding America’s coattails is all fine and well, but what happens if the U.S. experiences a U.S. currency crisis as a result of either its reckless debt growth or its massive money printing? Or worse still, an internal civil war? Should Canada go down with the ship? 

Murenbeeld believes that scenario is certainly possible and if that were to happen, the U.S. would be forced to provide some gold-backing once again to its currency, as it did prior to 1971. That’s why the U.S. will never sell its current gold reserves. 

That said, Canada and the Canadian economy would be banking on an America with a rational and functioning political system, which by today’s standards, is not a very comforting thought.

Also of concern is the prospect of a global monetary system reset, which I wrote about recently. Russia, China, and the other BRICS countries (Brazil, India, and South Africa) in general are jockeying to create an alternative trading currency to the U.S. dollar. They are soliciting and receiving interest from non-aligned countries in the Gulf and Global South. And what have all these countries been doing the past couple of decades, especially in the past 10 years? 

Accumulating gold and reducing their U.S. dollar holdings.

Since 1995, 46,000 tonnes of gold have gone from the West to the East. And the buying continues. Since 2010 central banks around the world have been stocking up on gold, recently at an accelerated pace. In Q3 of this year, a stunning 400 tonnes of gold were purchased by central banks — a lot of it anonymously. 

The likely buyers are the usual suspects; China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia. Why would they be doing this without some future purpose? 

A likely reason is that gold backing would give any new trading currency the credibility it would need to compete with the reigning U.S. dollar. (Keep in mind that even the dollar and every other currency invention in history needed gold backing in its infancy.)

I asked Randy Smallwood, chairman of the World Gold Council, why central banks own gold and continue to add to their reserves. The response is unsurprising to anyone who has studied economic history.

Gold provides a number of benefits. As a diversifier to other FX reserves, gold provides liquidity, safety, and return (when measured over long periods). Gold also has a low correlation to other traditional reserve holdings making it a great hedge asset. It is apolitical, since it is no one’s liability and therefore not associated with the politics of any specific country. It can be stored at home, providing a higher degree of safety from potential interference from a foreign power. 

And lastly, gold can be used as valuable collateral: In several recent episodes, gold has been pledged as collateral to obtain hard currency liquidity during periods of acute market stress.

Using the methodology by which the gold council analyses portfolio reserves of global central banks, I would propose that anything from 5% to 40% gold allocation would offer an optimal risk-to-reward ratio, although I don’t believe the upper range would be realistic for Canada. At 5%, it would represent about 100 tonnes of gold and at 40% it would be about 800 tonnes of gold.

Smallwood summed it by saying, “It’s time for Canada to grow up and act like an adult, building independent, real central-bank reserves that stand the quality test independently of the United States and its dollar. And what better time than today, when the U.S. dollar is so strongly valued relative to all other asset classes?”

That’s a worthwhile recommendation for the Bank of Canada to consider, given the likely prospects of either a U.S. dollar crisis or a bifurcation of the global monetary system.

—–

Frank Giustra is a Canadian businessman, global philanthropist, CEO of the Fiore Group, and co-chair of the International Crisis Group. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star.

END

Bankrupt crypto storage firm FTX hit by mysterious outflow of about $662 million

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-11-12 10:33Section: Daily Dispatches

By Suvashree Ghosh
Bloomberg News
Saturday, November 12, 2022

Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt digital-asset exchange FTX was hit by a mysterious outflow of about $662 million in tokens in the past 24 hours, the latest twist in one of the darkest periods for the crypto industry.

Customers still coming to terms with the platform’s Friday plunge into Chapter 11 proceedings were subsequently confronted with what the general counsel of its U.S. arm, Ryne Miller, described as “abnormalities with wallet movements.”

Miller said on Twitter that FTX had begun moving digital assets into cold storage — wallets that are unconnected to the internet — following its bankruptcy filing on Friday. The process was later expedited “to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.”Blockchain analytics firm Nansen, which gave the overall estimate of $662 million in withdrawals, said the coins flowed out of both FTX’s international and US exchanges. A separate analysis by Elliptic stated that initial indications showed almost $475 million had been stolen from the exchange in illicit transactions, with the stablecoins and other tokens that were taken being rapidly converted to Ether on decentralized exchanges — “a common technique used by hackers to prevent their haul being seized.” …… For the remainder of the report:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-12/ftx-us-s-counsel-says-platform-probing-abnormal-wallet-movementsMiller said on Twitter that FTX had begun moving digital assets into cold storage — wallets that are unconnected to the internet — following its bankruptcy filing on Friday. The process was later expedited “to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.”Blockchain analytics firm Nansen, which gave the overall estimate of $662 million in withdrawals, said the coins flowed out of both FTX’s international and US exchanges. A separate analysis by Elliptic stated that initial indications showed almost $475 million had been stolen from the exchange in illicit transactions, with the stablecoins and other tokens that were taken being rapidly converted to Ether on decentralized exchanges — “a common technique used by hackers to prevent their haul being seized.” …… For the remainder of the report:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-12/ftx-us-s-counsel-says-platform-probing-abnormal-wallet-movementsend

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Seems that FTX was whacked and all of their remaining 660 million dollar customer accounts have been stolen

(zerohedge)

FTX Hit By Mysterious $662 Million Outflow Amid Revelation That SBF Implemented Bookkeeping “Backdoor”

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 02:11 PM

Summary:

Sam Bankman-Fried’s now bankrupted crypto exchange FTX plunged into further chaos late Friday night and Saturday morning after the company detected unauthorized transactions. 

Bloomberg said the exchange was “hit by a mysterious outflow of about $662 million in tokens in the past 24 hours.” 

These outflows came just hours after FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday, and customers rushed to withdraw $6 billion over the last several days amid a failed Binance rescue deal. 

Ryne Miller, the exchange’s US general counsel, tweeted that FTX had begun moving digital assets into cold storage, adding the process was “to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.”

Bloomberg cited data from blockchain analytics firm Nansen, which said $662 million in withdrawals flowed out of FTX’s US and international exchanges. But in a separate analysis, research firm Elliptic noted $475 million had been stolen from FTX in transactions via stablecoins and other tokens that were converted into Ether. 

Reuters believes the amount of funds stolen from the exchange topped at least $1 billion. 

Nansen’s Alex Svanevik said, “It’s unclear exactly who’s making the transactions, but you wouldn’t expect to see these on-chain trades at this time.” He said FTX’s main wallet was entirely drained of FTT. 

In the bankruptcy filing, FTX said it had liabilities and assets between $10 billion and $50 billion. 

Bankman-Fried tweeted Friday:

“I’m really sorry, again, that we ended up here … Hopefully things can find a way to recover.”

FTX’s dramatic implosion comes as SBF had transferred $10 billion of customer funds to his trading arm, Alameda Research. 

Reuters said SBF had a “backdoor” in FTX’s book-keeping system, which allowed him to move customer money around without triggering internal compliance or accounting red flags. 

FTX was valued at $32 billion in 1Q22. Now the value is likely zero as restructuring specialist John J. Ray III, who handled Enron’s liquidation, has been hired to oversee the bankruptcy.

* * *

Update (1005ET): Amid speculation of a “hack” that may have drained the rest of bankrupt FTX’s remaining funds, founder Sam Bankman-Fried texted Reuters on Saturday, saying he was still in the Bahamas and denying social media rumors that he had hopped on a private jet to Buenos Aires.  

When asked by Reuters whether he had flown to Argentina, Bankman-Fried responded in a text message: “Nope.” He told Reuters he was in the Bahamas. 

The Reuters news follows rumors that SBF boarded a jet for a non-extradition country in South America as part of his fraudulent great escape. 

*  *  *

Update (0915ET): 

A post in FTX’s Telegram channel called the unauthorized transactions a “hack,” according to WSJ

Tom Robinson, the co-founder of blockchain analysis company Ellipticm, said at least $473 million in crypto appeared to be taken from FTX. He said the tokens were converted to ether. 

*  *  *

Another day, another plot twist in the FTX bankruptcy saga. 

FTX — which was clearly insolvent after the biggest fraud in crypto history — filed for bankruptcy on Friday. The official Twitter account of FTX retweeted Ryne Miller, the company’s US general counsel, who warned late Friday: 

Investigating abnormalities with wallet movements related to consolidation of ftx balances across exchanges – unclear facts as other movements not clear. Will share more info as soon as we have it.” 

Miller then tweeted:

Following the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings – FTX US and FTX [dot] com initiated precautionary steps to move all digital assets to cold storage. Process was expedited this evening – to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.

Then another twist emerged when an administrator on the Telegram support group for FTX stated: 

“FTX has been hacked . . . Don’t go on FTX site as it might download Trojans.”

“With all eyes on FTX, the late-night fund transfers on a Friday night raised questions about the company’s intent. While some blockchain investigators saw it as the start of the bankruptcy process, speculations around ill-intent or an external hack surfaced across the crypto ecosystem,” Cointelegraph explained. 

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried resigned yesterday and was replaced by John J. Ray, III – the lawyer who helped clean up Enron – as incoming CEO.

SBF’s crypto empire collapse resulted in Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index downgrading his net wealth from $15.6 billion on Nov. 4 to zero by Friday. 

Many on Twitter speculate SBF jumped on a private jet to Argentina. 

It remains unclear if the late-night fund transfers, totaling more than $600 million, according to CoinDesk, are part of the bankruptcy process or something more sinister, such as a hack. 

Reuters spoke with two people familiar with the matter who said upwards of $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from FTX. 

CoinDesk said, “Many FTX wallet holders are also reporting that they are seeing $0 balances in their FTX.com and FTX US wallets.”

Hmmm…

end

More on this huge fraud!

(zerohedge)

FTX Held Just $900MM In Liquid Assets Vs $9BN In Liabilities As Video Emerges Confirming Alameda Knew It Was Pilfering Client Funds

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 02:49 PM

On Friday, we first learned courtesy of a mystery twitter account belonging to an anonymous FTX insider, that the now bankrupt crypto exchange held just $900 million in liquid assets (including, among other things, a $7.3 million online bet by Democrat megadonor Sam Bankman-Fried for Trump to lose).Source: minigrogu

Of the $900 million in liquid assets, the largest portion – or roughly half – was in the form of $470mn of Robinhood shares owned by a Bankman-Fried vehicle not listed in Friday’s bankruptcy filing, which included 134 corporate entities. The liquid assets represent just 10% of the total assets (including $5.4BN in semi-liquid and $3.2BN in illiquid) and is a fraction of the $9 billion in liabilities at FTX which will now make their way through bankruptcy court for the next several years.

The document, which the FT also tracked down on Saturday and discussed here, and which was shared with prospective investors before the bankruptcy, provides a detailed picture of the financial hole in the FTX crypto empire and suggests customers of FTX international may face steep losses on cash and crypto assets they held on the exchange (and speaking of the 134 subs that FTX listed on its bankruptcy filing, the FT notes that the company had incorrectly listing entities it did not own in its initial filing, while as we reported earlier, the exchange suffered an apparent hack on Friday night that drained its balances to zero).

Aside from the spreadsheet shown above, the FT also noted another spreadsheet which references the $5bn of withdrawals last Sunday – which as everyone knows by know were precipitated by CZ telling the world he would pull his money after the “recent revelations” and sparking a bank run on FTX which the exchange did not have nearly the fund to defend against; the sheet also noted a negative $8bn entry described as “hidden, poorly internally labled ‘fiat@’ account”.

It is this entry that the prosecution’s case will revolve around, because Bankman-Fried told the Financial Times the $8bn related to funds “accidentally” extended to his trading firm, Alameda (he declined to comment further). Earlier this week, he tweeted that FTX international had $4bn in easily tradable assets when it faced Sunday’s $5bn surge of withdrawals. He has since deleted many of his fraudulent twitter misrepresentations.

“There were many things I wish I could do differently than I did, but the largest are represented by these two things: the poorly labeled internal bank-related acount [sic], and the size of customer withdrawals during a run on the bank,” the spreadsheet adds.

Shifting away from assets, in its now irrelevant investment materials, FTX Trading Ltd, the company behind the main international exchange, stated $8.9 billion in liabilities, the biggest portion of which is $5.1 billion of US dollar balances.

Healthy companies typically have assets that match or exceed their liabilities. The spreadsheet says FTX Trading had a total of $9.4bn of assets, but as it itself suggests, only 10% or so could be made liquid in case of a crisis.

Indeed, the vast majority of FTX Trading’s recorded assets were re either illiquid venture capital investments or crypto tokens that are not widely traded, according to the spreadsheet, which cautions that the figures “are rough values, and could be slightly off; there is also obviously a chance of typos etc. They also change a bit over time as trades happen.”

As shown in the spreadsheet above, the company’s biggest asset as of Thursday was $2.1bn worth of a cryptocurrency called Serum. Unfortunately, the market value of Serum was only $86 million on Saturday, according to CoinMarketCap, suggesting FTX’s holdings are a fraction of what was represented if sold into the market.

And while we now know that the endgame was bankruptcy, the FT reports that according to the latest set of investment materials SBF was seeking to raise $6bn-$10bn including from a convertible preferred stock paying a 10% dividend that could later be converted into common equity in FTX international at a valuation of between $12bn-$15bn. “This is just a lower bound on the terms investors can get,” the materials add.

What about the liquid assets? Well, the FT report goes on to notes that until Friday afternoon, Bankman-Fried was looking to sell the $472MM of Robinhood shares, the largest liquid asset listed for FTX Trading, in privately negotiated deals he was arranging on the messaging app Signal, according to an FT source. As a reminder, SBF acquired a 7.6% stake in Robinhood in May, a transaction which delayed (but did not halt) the company’s collapse into oblivion. As part of the attempted firesale, Bankman-Fried was entertaining offers at a 20% discount to Robinhood’s VWAP price, or about $9 per share, said an FT source, who ultimately declined to buy due to perceived legal risks.

But what is remarkable, is that the proceeds from the HOOD stock offering would not have gone to the now bankrupt FTX estate to satisfy prepetition claims; instead the Robinhood shares were held by an Antigua and Barbuda entity called Emergent Fidelity, which is personally controlled by Bankman-Fried, according to US securities filings. Emergent Fidelity is not among the entities listed in Friday’s bankruptcy filing.

In other words, SBF – who is most certainly on the run at this moment – was hoping to fill up his personal bank account by dumping his HOOD holdings, while giving FTX creditors the finger (again).

Finally, as we also noted on Friday, the FTX spreadsheet also noted that in addition to the $900mn of “liquid” assets, $5.5bn of “less liquid” assets consisting of crypto tokens, and $3.2bn of illiquid private equity investments…

… there was also an obscure $7.3 million bet for “Trump to Lose”. Which is part for the courtse for any Democrat criminal mastermind.

The good news for the rest of the crypto space: there are no bitcoin assets listed, despite bitcoin liabilities of $1.4BN. That means the company can not dump bitcoin in the open market, and it also means that the odds of continued selling pressure are now far less than previously speculated. Which is far more than one can say for Vlad Tenev whose Robinhood stock is facing a world of pain when it reopens on Monday.

And while the above will surely be Exhibit A for the prosecution, Exhibit B will be a video meeting in which Alameda Research’s chief executive and senior FTX officials confirm they knew that FTX had lent its customers’ money to Alameda to help it meet its liabilities.

Citing ‘people familiar with the video’, the WSJ reports that Alameda employees held a video conference late Wednesday Hong Kong time, in which 27-year-old Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison (also known as @carolinecapital) said that she, Bankman-Fried and two other FTX executives, Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, were aware of the decision to send customer funds to Alameda,

Singh was FTX’s director of engineering and a former Facebook employee. Wang, who previously worked at Google, was the chief technology officer of FTX and co-founded the exchange with Mr. Bankman-Fried.

Ellison said on the call that FTX used customer money to help Alameda meet its liabilities, the people said, assuring the 27-year-old teenager-lookalike of a lengthy prison sentence.

Hilariously, after tweeting out all the incriminating evidence the prosecution will need to slamdunk this case, neither SBF nor Caroline Ellison returned WSJ phone message and an email seeking comment. Singh and Wang didn’t respond to multiple messages seeking comment. Ryne Miller, FTX US’s chief legal officer, declined to comment.

Of course, by it’s not like they have anything to say that we don’t already know. Well, we take that back. Considering that FTX was instrumental in laundering bitcoin into Ukraine….

… we do wonder just how much crypto money-laundering between the US and Ukraine will emerge as a result of the bankruptcy discovery, and how long until we can safely claim that “Sam Bankman didn’t fry himself”?

end

Fortune magazine…

Fortune magazine:

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Fortune magazine:

FINANCECRYPTOCURRENCY

Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire ‘was run by a gang of kids in the Bahamas’ who all dated each other

Many are former co-workers from quantitative trading firm Jane Street, others SBF met at the MIT, his alma mater. All 10 are, or used to be, paired up in romantic relationships with each other.

BY

TRACY WANG 

 AND 

COINDESK

November 11, 2022 6:14 AM EST

Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive officer of FTX Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange, speaks during the Institute of International Finance (IIF) annual membership meeting in Washington, DC, Oct. 13, 2022. Ting Shen—Bloomberg via Getty Images

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

“Shocking” is a word that aptly describes the rapid fall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency empire. To a surprising degree, it’s a sentiment that pours out from people who worked for him, people who you’d think would’ve had a clue.

How can that be? It may have something to do with a luxury penthouse in the Bahamas. That’s where 30-year-old Bankman-Fried is roommates with the inner circle who ran his now-struggling crypto exchange FTX and trading giant Alameda Research.

Many are former co-workers from quantitative trading firm Jane Street, others he met at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his alma mater. All 10 are, or used to be, paired up in romantic relationships with each other. That includes Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison, whose firm played a central role in the company’s collapse – and who, at times, has dated Bankman-Fried, according to people familiar with the matter.

CoinDesk spoke to several current and former FTX and Alameda employees who agreed to talk on the condition of anonymity, citing ongoing harassment and death threats due to the exchange’s solvency issues. And they said essentially this: It’s a place full of conflicts of interest, nepotism and lack of oversight.

“The whole operation was run by a gang of kids in the Bahamas,” a person familiar with the matter told CoinDesk on the condition of anonymity.

FTX and Alameda employees CoinDesk interviewed say they have been kept in the dark about the events of the past week, adding that only CEO Bankman-Fried’s inner circle may have had knowledge that the exchange, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, siphoned customer funds into corporate sibling Alameda.

“It’s been radio silence from Sam,” a second Bankman-Fried employee told CoinDesk on Wednesday. “When we saw the CZ [CEO Changpeng Zhao] tweet saying Binance was going to buy FTX, we honestly thought it was fake. But then Sam’s tweet just confirmed it.”

Bankman-Fried finally addressed employees later on Wednesday — a week after a CoinDesk article set the crisis in motion — writing, “I completely understand if you want to step away,” per an internal message to employees viewed by CoinDesk.

Among his nine housemates are FTX co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Gary Wang, FTX Director of Engineering Nishad Singh and Ellison of Alameda, Bankman-Fried’s trading business that’s at the center of the current chaos and on which the Wall Street Journal reported got $10 billion of FTX customer money. The remaining six are also FTX employees.

“Gary, Nishad and Sam control the code, the exchange’s matching engine and funds,” the first person familiar with the matter said. “If they moved them around or input their own numbers, I’m not sure who would notice.”

A third person familiar with how the company operated said: “They’ll do anything for each other.”

Bankman-Fried and Ellison did not respond to a request for comment sent directly to them. Wang and Singh could not be reached for comment. A spokesperson for FTX was also asked to pass on CoinDesk’s request for comment to Bankman-Fried, Ellison, Wang and Singh.

Bankman-Fried’s father, Stanford Law professor Joseph Bankman, also plays a role at the company. He appeared on an episode of the “FTX Podcast” in August, describing charity and regulation-related projects in which he was involved.

Wang, Singh and Ellison also comprise the board of Bankman-Fried’s FTX Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the company. Several housemates, including Bankman-Fried and Ellison, are active participants in effective altruism, a movement that “aims to find the best ways to help others,” possibly through philanthropy.

In the Bahamas, FTX and Alameda’s offices are also located steps apart in a coworking compound in the Bahamas that also housed Solana developers and other crypto incubation projects.

“All of the stakeholders would have a hard look at FTX governance,” tweeted Bankman-Fried on Thursday. “I will not be around if I’m not wanted.”

While some FTX employees have voiced approval for Bankman-Fried’s more frequent communication of late, others are not so consoled.

“Some employees kept their life savings on FTX,” the second anonymous employee told CoinDesk. “We trusted that everything was fine.”

end

FTX scam

Robert Hryniak9:04 AM (38 minutes ago)
to



This is quite amusing … Democrats are now in the open as simply a party of thieves laundering money .. American public funds, let that sink in.…. It is where the money went via the Ukraine. It was only a matter of time before the evidence would come out. As all such scams have a expiry date. Some big names will suffer losing all creditability in this fiasco. 
They all have committed real crimes. I knew of their set up years ago and it was clear it would turn out to be the mess that it is. Unfortunately, Bahamas is breeding ground for such scams. And now they too will suffer the fallout in lost creditability.  Now the only question is whether anyone will be brought before justice or is this just another brick in the  wall of corruption emanating from Democrats? And just like Enron will anyone really be punished? 

Now ask yourselves why anyone is dying to cover up this scam of debt dollars sent to Ukraine? Do you really think that dying in the Ukraine is for liberty of Ukrainians? No one cares. Nor does anyone care about economies broken to cover the illusion, while mass theft occurs. Just look at the money Zelensky has accumulated from selling arms supplied with American tax dollars. When you can buy a Stinger for $30,000 with next delivery in any city in Europe it is time to wake up.  And it has nothing to do with Bitcoin values as it too is simply a tool used in the scam. It is why if you have Bitcoin you need to keep it close and be careful about who trust.

You can read more at the link; Hal Turner has nailed what has happened. 

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-ukraine-military-aid-from-usa-was-invested-in-crypto-ftx-by-ukraine

end

Monday

Greyerz – $32 Billion Implosion Of FTX May Usher In Collapse Of The Entire Global Financial System

November 13, 2022

Greyerz – $32 Billion Implosion Of FTX May Usher In Collapse Of The Entire Global Financial System

Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies and metals warned King World News that the $32 billion collapse of crypto exchange FTX may usher in a collapse of the entire global financial system.

Each week Egon von Greyerz articles are published first on King World News

November 13 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz, Managing Partner at Matterhorn Asset Management:  Is the $32 billion collapse of the crypto exchange FTX the catalyst for the fall of the financial system?

We will soon know but at least the GOLD – CRYPTO debate was settled last week for the ones who believed crypts represented wealth preservation.

I have always argued that cryptos are a binary investment. 

My view on Bitcoin has for years been that it can go to either $1 million or to zero.

So not a good risk and certainly not an investment for the fainthearted or for widows and orphans.

Not that I ever thought Bitcoin is worth $1 million or anything at all for that matter. But manias always go to excesses before they collapse.

Again we have learnt that cryptos are a lottery ticket. It can be worth a lot or nothing.

What was worth $24 billion a week ago is today worth ZERO, ZILCH, NADA!…


Listen to the greatest Egon von Greyerz audio interview ever
by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.


Not long ago, FTX, the ex second largest crypto exchange, was worth $32 billion but declined to $24b and now zero.

Ouch, that must hurt for all the investors who piled in to this Ponzi scheme. 

And it is not just any investor, names like Blackrock, Lightspeed Venture, Brevan Howard, Tiger Global, SoftBank and many more were major investors. 

Most of the bigger investors are Venture Capital or Hedge Funds so they understand the risk.

It is amazing how greed and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) can attract almost everybody from Presidents to sport stars. See Blair and Clinton below.

But sadly greed and FOMO also attract normal investors as well as greedy pension funds managers. For example the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan are investors. 

It is clearly totally unacceptable that pension funds should risk pensioners’ nest egg by investing in a Ponzi scheme with no assets, no real financials and just some unverifiable electronic entries on a number of computers.

Because so many recognised bigger investors jumped on the cryptowagon, pension funds clearly thought that this was a mainstream investment and therefore acceptable.

For the average pension fund manager, it is always safe to do whatever other major investors do regardless if a particular investment goes to zero. 

Our company has an associate in the US who knows many of the major pension funds investment managers. Interestingly no pension fund is interested in physical gold, in spite of gold not only being the perfect wealth preservation investment but also an excellent hedge to balance a portfolio.

More importantly in current times of high inflation and falling asset markets, gold acts as an excellent inflation hedge. 

But knowing pension funds, they will wait until gold goes up and is on the front pages. At that point many pension funds will jump on the goldwagon at much higher prices.

There was also an A-list of celebrities and major sport stars. The founder of FTX, Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) was a superstar in the Crypto business and even managed to get Tony Blair (ex UK Prime Minister) and Bill Clinton to attend his Crypto conference in the Bahamas in 2022. I don’t know if these two world leaders received any shares in FTX but they were most certainly very well paid for attending the event.

Apparently SBF had a backdoor to the FTX accounting software allowing him to take billions out without triggering any alerts or audits. 

Coming back to cryptos, exactly 12 months ago the total crypto market was worth $3 trillion.

Today, one year later the market is worth $885 billion, a fall of 70%. I obviously don’t mean that it is worth this amount but gullible investors clearly do. In my estimation it has no intrinsic value at all even though the market currently values cryptos at $0.9 trillion. Bitcoin dominates the crypto market and represents 39% of the total. 

Obviously anyone who bought Bitcoin anywhere between $10 and say $1,000 has made a fortune. But as we know, the biggest number of investors jump on the bandwagon very late. Therefore, most investors are today most probably losing on their BTC investment. 

The problem is that investors have already lost 75% of the maximum gain when the price of BTC was $70,000, and now like most greedy investors they are waiting and praying for the next move up.

The well known Bitcoin investor and ardent believer Michael Saylor bought through his Microstrategy company 130,000 BTC at an average of $30,600. With a current price of $16,600 he is sitting on a net loss of of $1.8 billion.  He might very well have bought these on margin in which case his position could be liquidated at any time.

Since Bitcoin is almost a religion for many investors, very few have got out but are instead hoping for the next rally to $100,000, $250,000 and much higher. 

They might be lucky or they might lose it all as the total market crashes.  

Although FTX was only 3% of the total crypto market, the total loss of $24 billion in a couple of days will change the crypto market forever. It might not ever be the same again except for the crypto fanatics. 

Since FTX had a very high profile, the repercussions will be major. Not long ago FTX was seen as a buyer of Goldman Sachs. 

Will we now see a continued rapid liquidation of all crypto assets as nervous investors realise that the whole crypto market could be a Ponzi scheme.

When the second biggest crypto exchange goes under overnight, there is nothing to guarantee that this will not happen to others. 

Remember that there is no saviour and no central bank that will step in. 

What is likely is that institutional investors will get out and stay out in the future. What is also probable is that cryptocurrencies will now be regulated in most major economies which defeats the object of this whole sector. 

PENSION FUNDS BUY CRYPTOS BUT NOT GOLD
My and our company’s position regarding cryptos has always been clear. We don’t consider that cryptos have an intrinsic value. 

At a time when most assets are in bubble territory, cryptos do not for us represent real value. They have become yet another bubble asset, although the aficionados obviously swear by their virtues. 

Since we still see a major risk of the financial and monetary system collapsing, we are totally convinced that wealth preservation is critical. 

Cryptos have by many been seen as a wealth preservation asset. We have always seen it as a highly speculative investment. I doubt that after the overnight collapse of a major crypto business, that many investors still see it as wealth protection. 

What we have just experienced with FTX confirms that digital entries on a number of computers with no physical asset backing can hardly be considered as genuine protection of assets. 

Also, if you lose the key, your cryptos can never be recovered. This has happened to many. 

CRYPTOS – JUST ANOTHER POPULAR DELUSION
Are we seeing the end of another Tulip Bulb speculative frenzy as described in “Popular delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay?

The overnight $24 billion collapse of the crypto exchange FTX is in my view just the first domino of a massive series of failures in a financial system built on delusions and madness. 

So is the crypto market just the first weak link in a global Ponzi scheme.

The whole financial system of $2.5 quadrillion is built on the illusion that digital entries on computers is real wealth as I write about in this article. 

I elaborated further on the massive risk the financial system represents in this interview with Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog.

The crypto market for example recently valued at $3 trillion (today $0.9b) in is real danger of either imploding or becoming a fringe investments for geeks.

Most asset classes are major bubbles inflated by free money printed by central banks and created by commercial banks. When paper money started, it would normally be backed on a 1 for 1 basis by gold. 

Now we have a $2.5 quadrillion debt bubble backed partly by massively overvalued assets but mostly by hope and air. Not really a solid foundation for the global monetary system. 

STOCKS, BONDS & PROPERTY – THE NEXT DOMINOS TO FALL
The next big dominos to fall rapidly will be stocks, bonds and property. This fall has obviously already started but is likely to accelerate now. 

For example, it looks technically like stocks will have a big fall until the end of the year. Medium/long term I would be surprised if stocks around the world don’t fall 75-90% from the top. 

Another bubble to implode will be bonds. Everyone seems to have so much faith in the Fed Pivot. Yes, at some point in the rate rising cycle, the Fed might panic due to the economy imploding. 

But firstly the Fed is determined to quash inflation at any cost. Remember that all the Fed’s actions have always damaged the economy since their timing is always wrong and that is without exception. 

But even if there is a short pivot by the Fed, the coming defaults in credit markets will cause massive sell offs in bond markets. At that point, the Fed and other central banks will lose control of interest rates. Then the vicious cycle of higher rates will cause more defaults which will lead to further liquidation of bonds, etc. until the bond market collapses.

I have always argued that central banks serve no purpose. Their actions have destroyed the efficient functioning of markets by constant manipulation. The natural laws of supply and demand are the best regulators and would have stopped the massive money creation combined with zero interest rates. 

It is really very simple, when demand for money is high, rates go up to stop credit bubbles. The reverse is of course also true. 

The property market is another super bubble fuelled by virtually unlimited free money. High interest rates are guaranteed to create an implosion of property values with major defaults following.

A DISORDERLY RESET
And so it goes on as I also discussed in a recent interview with As Good As Gold Australia about global markets failing .

But as I have said for years, the reset will not be the orderly one that Klaus Schwab of WEF fame and other proponents suggest. Any reset involving central bank digital currencies will at best just work temporarily. 

The real reset will be disorderly and violent. It will entail a collapse of global debt and the assets backed by this debt. 

The world can never grow soundly if the debt remains. It can’t be written off in an orderly way without the other side of the balance sheet declining at the same time. But since no government or central bank would dare to take that decision, the disorderly reset is the only likely outcome.

Remember that when the financial systems implode, the trigger is often what seems like a small event like the crypto market today.

NO CURRENCY HAS EVER SURVIVED IN HISTORY
Students of history will not be surprised to see another collapse of the monetary system. Remember that no currency has ever survived in its original form. 

Currencies always go to ZERO without fail. See Voltaire quote in the graph below.

So all currencies always lose all of their value. As the graph below shows, in relation to real money which is GOLD, all currencies have in this monetary era, since 1913, lost 97-99%. The remaining 1-3% fall is likely to take place in the next 2-5 years. 

But what is important to understand is that the final 1-3% fall since 1913 means a 100% fall from today.  So paper money or fake digital money is soon starting its journey to ZERO with ensuing hyperinflation.

For anyone who needs to be reminded of what that means, just look at Venezuela today or Zimbabwe, the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, John Law and  the South Sea Bubble in the early 1700s and the collapse of Roman money, the silver Denarius in the 2nd and 3rd century, etc. The list is of course endless. 

If we look at the pyramid below with $2.3 quadrillion of debt, derivatives (which can easily turn into debt) and unfunded liabilities, it rests on only $2 trillion (0.1%) of real money or gold. So a free market revaluation of gold is very likely.

I am not in favour of gold backed currencies since that would lead to continued manipulation by governments. Much better if we have Free Gold with no paper market. When the unbacked paper gold market collapses, the true value of gold will emerge, when not suppressed, by 100x or more of fake paper gold.  

Anyone who doesn’t hold physical gold and some silver will regret it in the next few years.

Also, as the graph below shows, gold is today, relative to US money supply, as cheap as in 1970 at $35 and in 2000 at $300. Remember that only physical gold outside the financial system is real wealth preservation.

This will link you directly to more fantastic articles from Egon von Greyerz CLICK HERE.

end

Cryptos Rebound After Binance CEO Announces Industry Recovery Fund, Calls For RegulationCryptos Rebound After Binance CEO Announces Industry Recovery Fund, Calls For Regulation

Following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in crypto market value (and spilling over into broader equity markets), with risks mounting that other exchanges could see similar bank runs, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao “CZ” unveiled that he was preparing a crypto recovery fund to industry players facing a liquidity crunch and called for regulations. 

“To reduce further cascading negative effects of FTX, Binance is forming an industry recovery fund, to help projects who are otherwise strong, but in a liquidity crisis,” CZ tweeted early Monday, adding that he welcomes “other industry players with cash who wants to co-invest. Crypto is not going away. We are still here. Let’s rebuild.” 

After tumbling earlier in the session, Bitcoin and Ethereum immediately jumped on the tweet that has received more than 48k likes and nearly 9.5k retweets. The upside move in Bitcoin was about 7%. 

At the G20 summit in Bali, CZ called for more regulations, according to Reuters.

“We do need to do this properly, we do need to do this in a stable way.”

“I think the industry collectively has a role to protect consumers, to protect everybody. So it’s not just regulators. Regulators have a role but it’s not 100% their responsibility.”

CZ’s tweet comes after rival FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. As of last Thursday, FTX Trading International only had $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities. Then there were reports over the weekend that hundreds of millions of dollars were stolen from FTX’s crypto wallets in a brazen hack. This led some in the crypto community to worry about the stability of other exchanges. 

Early last week, CZ abandoned a move to rescue FTX. After walking away from the rescue deal, Binance released this statement: 

“In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.” 

For now CZ’s announcement appears to have halted the death by billions of sell orders that have hit crypto but as many have warned in the past two days, it is only a matter of time before the next major crisis tests the faith of the bulls.

Following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in crypto market value (and spilling over into broader equity markets), with risks mounting that other exchanges could see similar bank runs, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao “CZ” unveiled that he was preparing a crypto recovery fund to industry players facing a liquidity crunch and called for regulations. 

“To reduce further cascading negative effects of FTX, Binance is forming an industry recovery fund, to help projects who are otherwise strong, but in a liquidity crisis,” CZ tweeted early Monday, adding that he welcomes “other industry players with cash who wants to co-invest. Crypto is not going away. We are still here. Let’s rebuild.” 

After tumbling earlier in the session, Bitcoin and Ethereum immediately jumped on the tweet that has received more than 48k likes and nearly 9.5k retweets. The upside move in Bitcoin was about 7%. 

At the G20 summit in Bali, CZ called for more regulations, according to Reuters.

“We do need to do this properly, we do need to do this in a stable way.”

“I think the industry collectively has a role to protect consumers, to protect everybody. So it’s not just regulators. Regulators have a role but it’s not 100% their responsibility.”

CZ’s tweet comes after rival FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. As of last Thursday, FTX Trading International only had $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities. Then there were reports over the weekend that hundreds of millions of dollars were stolen from FTX’s crypto wallets in a brazen hack. This led some in the crypto community to worry about the stability of other exchanges. 

Early last week, CZ abandoned a move to rescue FTX. After walking away from the rescue deal, Binance released this statement: 

“In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.” 

For now CZ’s announcement appears to have halted the death by billions of sell orders that have hit crypto but as many have warned in the past two days, it is only a matter of time before the next major crisis tests the faith of the bulls.

END

Alameda Frontran Crypto Tokens Ahead Of New Listings On FTX

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Another day, and one more shoe drops in the ongoing FTX scandal.

In the latest episode in this relentless scandal-drama, the WSJ reports that the trading arm of Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire, Alameda Research, was quietly amassing stakes in various cryptos ahead of announcements that FTX would be listing them for trade, a practice that is patently illegal.

Citing analysis of public blockchain data from analytics firm Argus, the Wall Street Journal reported that on the days FTX said it would be listing “new” tokens between 2021 and March of this year, Alameda had already amassed roughly $60 million worth of tokens ahead of time, arguably to sell into the burst of customer demand and make a huge risk-free profit.

This dollar amount was combined across 18 different coin listings tied to the Ethereum blockchain, according to the report, which goes on to note that while it’s unclear whether Alameda sold the tokens, the practice continues to raise questions about regulations in the world of crypto, where illegal frontrunning and other manipulative tactics have become a way of life. 

The report notes the obvious – that the listings on FTX added “both liquidity and a stamp of legitimacy” to tokens, which would then often boost their prices. 

Omar Amjad, co-founder of Argus, told the Wall Street Journal: “What we see is they’ve basically almost always in the month leading up to it bought into a position that they previously didn’t. It’s quite clear there’s something in the market telling them they should be buying things they previously hadn’t.”

Obviously, both Alameda and FTX did not respond to WSJ questions, although Bankman-Fried did tell the financial paper back in February that Alameda “had the same access to information as all other market makers on the platform and that its traders didn’t have special access to client information”.

Spoiler alert: they did.

END

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Ep. 99 Live from the Vault

https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/

Major Market Shifts. Gold Repricing Up Ahead? Feat Lyn Alden.

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Lyn Alden, world-renowned macroeconomist and investment strategist, joins Andrew Maguire to gauge catalytic opportunities in the bond and precious metals markets that reinforce the attractiveness of gold.

Lyn offers her thoughts on the global migration of gold from West to East, as more countries decide to repatriate their reserves to bolster their financial sovereignty.

Ep. 99 Live from the Vault

Major Market Shifts. Gold Repricing Up Ahead? Feat Lyn Alden.

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Lyn Alden, world-renowned macroeconomist and investment strategist, joins Andrew Maguire to gauge catalytic opportunities in the bond and precious metals markets that reinforce the attractiveness of gold.

Lyn offers her thoughts on the global migration of gold from West to East, as more countries decide to repatriate their reserves to bolster their financial sovereignty.

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.0700

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0591

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.89 PTS OR  0.13%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 294.05 OR 1.70% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 300.10  PTS OR 1.06%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  106.93/Euro FALLS TO 1.0291

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.236!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 140.28/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.111%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.154%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.154%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.338//

3j Gold at $1759.60//silver at: 21.50  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 6/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.47//

3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 140.28DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9464– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9742well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.887% UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.082% UP 4 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,60…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.316%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Stock Rally Fizzles Following Return Of Hawkish Fed Comments

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 08:06 AM

The rally in US index futures paused after Wall Street stocks posted their best week in several months, following comments from a Federal Reserve official that the fight against inflation has further to run. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 0.3% at 7:30 a.m. ET…

… while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that policymakers had “a ways to go” before ending interest-rate hikes. His comments also lifted 10-year Treasury yields by 9 basis points.

In premarket trading, beside the surge of Chinese stocks listed in the US following China’s announcement of a “rescue package”, Advanced Micro Devices shares also rose after brokers UBS and Baird upgraded the chipmaker to buy and outperform, respectively. Biogen (BIIB US) shares rise as much as 5% in premarket trading, after Roche’s Alzheimer’s drug, a potential competitor to Biogen’s, failed a pair of large studies.

On Monday, the dollar traded near its best levels of the day, pressuring all of its Group-of-10 counterparts. Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by 10-year rates that climbed for the first time in a week.  Oil fell with gold, while Bitcoin gains exceeded 2% after earlier sliding more than 3%; the drop in crypto was halted after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said the world’s largest digital-asset exchange plans to set up an industry recovery fund.

Last week, a big miss across the board in CPI data fueled bets that the US central bank would temper its hawkish narrative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week 2.1% short of recording a 20% gain off its Sept. 30 low — the technical definition of a bull market. The S&P 500 chalked up its biggest weekly rise since June, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9% for its best two-day gain since 2008.

“The burst of euphoria which erupted over US markets and spread more widely at the end of last week is ebbing away after fresh warnings that the fight against inflation is still a hard slog yet to be won,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst Hargreaves Lansdown.

That comes after a tumultuous weekend for rival FTX, which was once seen as among the best-run exchanges but has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Worrying details that have emerged include the fact that just before filing for bankruptcy, FTX Trading International held just $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Chinese stocks listed in the US also were also higher, and were set to extend their rally to a third day, after Beijing issued a 16-point plan to boost the real-estate market on Friday, the strongest sign yet that President Xi Jinping is turning his attention toward shoring up the world’s second-largest economy. The move pushed Chinese stocks into a bull market, even as the Hang Seng China gauge holds on to a loss of more than 25% this year.

After a dismal earnings season, which saw mega-cap tech stocks underperform while earnings growth waned, some are skeptical about the earnings outlook. “Investor euphoria over the prospect of a ‘Fed pivot’ contrasts with the deteriorating profit margins and darkening business outlook expressed by many S&P 500 firms,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin said in a note.

In Europe, stocks are steady, holding on to early session gains as personal care, telecoms and media outperform while travel and real estate lag. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%; Roche dropped after the news on its much-awaited experimental Alzheimer’s drug. Here are the most notable market movers:

  • Informa shares jump as much as 8.8%, the most in two years, after the company raised full-year revenue and operating-profit guidance, despite assuming zero revenue from live and on-demand events in China in November and December
  • German pharmaceuticals giant Merck KGaA rises as much as 6.4% after Bank of America upgraded to buy from neutral, flagging Phase III data for multiple sclerosis drug Evobrutinib which it says could be a “game-changer” for the company’s “perceived lackluster pharma business.”
  • Pepco Group soars as much as 19% in Warsaw after the discount retailer was added to MSCI’s global standard indexes in a semi-annual review published after markets closed on Nov. 10.
  • Teleperformance rises as much as 5.6%, clawing back more ground following the slump it suffered last week sparked by a report involving its Content Moderation unit in Colombia.
  • Rheinmetall climbs as much as 5.2%, touching the highest since Aug. 18, following the German defense company’s acquisition of Spanish ammunition maker Expal in a deal that Warburg says looks like a “good strategic fit.”
  • Close Brothers falls as much as 6.5% as the UK financial services firm is cut to sell from hold at Investec, which says the shares now look “a little too expensive.”
  • Tremor falls as much as 27%, the most since Aug. 16, after a “challenging 3Q market” led to reported revenue missing analyst estimates.
  • Ferrexpo slumps as much as 9.7%, the most since Oct. 24, after Credit Suisse downgrades the stock to neutral from outperform, citing a deteriorating operating environment in Ukraine.
  • Roche falls as much as 5.7%, the most since May, after the Swiss pharmaceutical company said its long-awaited Alzheimer’s treatment failed its phase 3 trial, with its research partner MorphoSys plunging as much as 33%, the most in two decades.

In Asia, Chinese stocks extended recent gains on hints of shifting Covid policy along with more support heading toward the property sector. US chipmakers could be in focus, with President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit.

Asian stocks were steady as weakness in markets such as Japan countered gains in China, where authorities issued a sweeping rescue package to bail out the property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared an earlier gain of as much as 0.8% to trade flat. While gauges in China pared a bulk of their early gains, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed up nearly 2%, taking its surge this month to 21%.

Vietnam’s benchmark was the worst performer in the region, while Japanese shares also slipped. SoftBank Group’s plunge weighed the most on the regional benchmark. China’s property stocks surged as financial regulators issued a 16-point plan to boost the real estate market. Along with Friday’s easing of some Covid controls, the measures gave traders confidence that China is finally taking concrete steps to tackle the two biggest sore points for its economy and markets — Covid Zero and the property crisis. READ: Chinese Stocks Storm Into Bull Market on Covid, Property Shifts The MSCI Asia index is up about 11% so far in November, heading for its first monthly gain since July. It is still down more than 21% this year. Traders will be closely watching any further progress on China’s reopening and whether the downshift in US inflation paves the way for a moderation in future Fed interest rate hikes. “We see next year as a much better one for Asia/EM equities, following the longest bear market in history,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note. The softer-than-expected US inflation will allow the Fed to finish hiking in January, while growth in the region will likely pick up from the second quarter of 2023 helped by China’s reopening, they added

Japanese equities ended lower as investors worried over the strengthening yen and possible cryptocurrency contagion risk amid FTX’s deepening woes.  The two factors overpowered the initial optimism over China’s moves to support eventual reopening and beleaguered property sector. The Topix Index fell 1.1% to 1,956.90 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined by a similar magnitude to 27,963.47.  SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline as it plunged 13%, the most since March 2020 after disappointing second quarter results. Out of 2,165 Topix members, 575 rose and 1,524 fell, while 66 were unchanged. “The Nikkei Stock Average last week rose sharply and recovered to the 28,000 yen level, and stocks are being sold off for profit-taking,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, strategist at Asset Management One. The strengthening of the yen is also playing into today’s move, he added. 

Key stocks gauges in India fell after benchmark Sensex surged to a record high on Friday, weighed by fast-moving consumer-goods companies while the country’s earnings season nears completion. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 61,624.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.1%. The 50-stock Nifty index is still less than 1% short of its record level seen in October last year.  Volatility in local stocks surged 3%, the most since Oct. 11, while the benchmark Sensex is trading at 14-day RSI of 66, close to levels that traders consider as overbought. Of 49 Nifty companies, which have so far reported earnings, 32 have reported profit in-line or above consensus estimates while 14 have missed. Oil & Natural Gas Corp will be releasing its number later today. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. FMCG firms ITC and Hindustan Unilever were also among prominent decliners

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar resumed its ascent after crashing last week, rising 0.5% as the greenback gained versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. CAD and EUR are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY underperforms, breaking above 140.40/USD.

  • The euro fell to trade around $1.03 after earlier rising to $1.0367, the highest level since Aug. 10. Yields on Bunds and Italian bonds fell. ECB’s Guindos, Centeno and Nagel speak later. The new Italian government will likely miss its fiscal targets amid headwinds to growth, Moody’s said in a statement last week; Fitch reviews Italy, Moody’s reviews Portugal and S&P reviews Ireland on Friday
  • The pound pulled back from a 2 1/2-month high versus the greenback. The gilt curve bull-flattened ahead of the UK government’s Autumn Statement due later in the week The Office for Budget Responsibility expects government borrowing to rise to nearly £100b in 2026-27, Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing an “ally” of UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt
  • Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds fall across the curve on the hawkish Fed comments. The Aussie and kiwi both weakened on the back of broad-based US dollar strength
  • The yen was the worst G-10 performer and fell below 140 per dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it’s “very good” that rapid weakening of the yen has halted for now after one-sided moves

In rates, the Treasury yield curve steepened after the hawkish Fed comments and Friday’s moves in Bunds. The 10-year yield rose 6 bps after earlier adding 9bps to touch 3.90%, erasing a portion of Thursday’s historic gains sparked by softer-than-expected October CPI data. Treasury futures had erased a portion of the gains on Friday when the cash bond market was closed for US Veterans Day. Yields are higher by 5bp-8bp Monday, little changed from where they began the Asia session, after Fed Governor Waller, speaking during US evening hours on Nov. 13, said the central bank still has “a ways to go” before it stops raising interest rates, and that the market got “way out in front” after the inflation data. The 5-year TSY, higher by 7bp at 4%, is back in line with its 50-DMA after falling below it Thursday for the first time since Aug. 19. Interest-rate strategists at Goldman Sachs were among those saying the market reaction to October CPI was excessive; the yield declines are “likely overdone,” as risks remain skewed toward an extended Fed tightening cycle, they wrote. Gilts lead latest push, 10-year yields outperform bunds by about a basis point; USTs 10-year yields lag, rising 7bps as they catch up after being closed on Friday.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall below $88 as initial upside on the USD’s pullback dissipated with the DXY now back above 107.00. Benchmarks are near session lows on the above action and also amid a further strengthening of COVID measures within Beijing after the city reports the highest number of cases in a year. Janet Yellen said India can buy Russian oil at any price if it does not use Western insurance or maritime services, according to a Reuters interview, and said the existence of a G7 oil price cap will give India and other developing countries leverage in bargaining with Russia on oil. Yellen said they are happy for India, China, and Africa to get a “bargain” on Russian oil, inside or outside the price cap. An Indian government official said they do not believe India will follow the price cap mechanism and have communicated that to the countries. OPEC+ “may discuss adjustments to members’ oil production baselines in early December as many of them struggle to meet their agreed quotas”, according to Energy Intel. “Delegates said it is too early to predict what might happen in Vienna in terms of any potential changes to the alliance’s production policy or baseline adjustments. “

There is nothing on today’s economic calendar; we get earnings from Tyson Foods; Fed’s Williams and Brainard speak, ECB’s Panetta, Centeno and Guindos speak

Market snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,981.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 433.04
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 151.66
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 490.04
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,963.47
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,956.90
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 17,619.71
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,083.40
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 61,714.09
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,146.35
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,474.65
  • German 10Y yield down 0.9% to 2.14%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0323
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $95.38/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,759.48
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.51% to 106.84

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Further interest rate hikes are expected to ensure inflation’s return to our medium-term target of 2%, ECB’s governing council member Constantinos Herodotou says in an interview with Greece’s Naftemporiki website
  • Germany’s biggest labor union is locked in talks with employers over a pay deal for about 3.9 million workers, in one of the most significant domestic showdowns of Europe’s energy crisis so far
  • The ECB will probably receive several hundreds of billions of euros in early repayments of long-term loans this year after officials toughened the terms of the program to aid their fight against inflation
  • China issued sweeping directives to rescue its property sector, adding to a major recalibration of its pandemic response in the strongest signs yet that President Xi Jinping is turning his attention toward shoring up the world’s second-largest economy
  • The EU is “ready to go” with an effort to impose a price cap on Russian oil, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of its executive arm, said Mondayd

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mostly lower despite the positive lead from Wall Street on Friday.     ASX 200 was contained on either side of the flat mark with losses in Industrials, Telecoms and Healthcare offsetting the gains from the Metals, Mining, and Materials sectors. Nikkei 225 saw its losses lead by Softbank shares tumbling over 12% following its earnings on Friday, which saw the Co’s Vision Fund post a quarterly net loss. KOSPI eventually faded earlier gains following the trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea over the weekend, in which White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US, Japan, and South Korea have a coordinated response if North Korea carries out its 7th nuclear test. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded in the green for most of the session, with Hong Kong outperforming following source reports that the PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, with the Hang Seng Property index surging over 15% in early trade, but traders remain cognizant of the Biden-Xi meeting poised to take place on Monday at 09:30GMT/04:30EST.

Top Asian News

  • eijing authorities stated on Monday to further strengthen COVID prevention and control measures and reminded residents not to go out unless necessary. The measures are seen as a response to the mounting pressure of soaring cases in the city, according to Global Times.
  • China reported 1,794 new confirmed COVID cases in the Mainland on Nov 13th (vs 1,711 on Nov 12).
  • Beijing reported the highest number of local COVID cases in over a year, reporting 404 cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, according to Reuters sources. Bloomberg reported that China’s real estate rescue package consists of a 16-point playbook for finance officials across the country, according to sources.
  • China’s Securities Journal noted that China is expected to inject liquidity via a new MFL (unverified).
  • PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 3bln net drain.
  • PBoC issues a notice to further support the extension of loan repayments for small firms.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said the Japanese economy is picking up; now is the stage to continue monetary easing to support the economy, according to Reuters. Kuroda said they are closely watching the impact of raw material inflation and currency moves on firms and households. Kuroda said the BoJ and the government are closely monitoring the impact of FX, and market moves on the economy and prices; and said abnormally one-sided sharp JPY weakening appears to have paused, partly thanks to the government’s FX intervention.
  • Earthquake shakes buildings in Tokyo, Japan, via Reuters; prelim. magnitude of 6.1 via NIED. Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near the S. Coast of Honshu, Japan, via EMSC

European bourses are posting mild gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with participants awaiting the conclusion of the Biden-Xi meeting.
Sectors were predominantly in the green, though performance has turned more mixed as the session progresses.
Stateside, futures are pressured as the recent rally seemingly runs out of steam and also following Fed’s Waller pushing back on the post-CPI reaction, ES -0.4%.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Hunt said he will set out a long-term plan for energy, and said we do have to increase taxes and cut spending. He said he wants to make sure a recession is as short and shallow as possible if the UK falls into one. He added that he will be talking about constraints on the labour force in the budget plan, via Reuters.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt said the OBR forecasts will likely present a similar picture to recent BoE forecasts of a recession. Hunt plans to commit around GBP 20bln to extend the energy price guarantee scheme by six months from April and is eyeing a multi-billion-pound package to shield pensioners and benefit claimants from the increases in power bills, according to The Times.
  • UK Treasury discussing raising energy price cap from April; department considers making policy announcement in the autumn statement rather than waiting until spring, according to Guardian sources. It is understood that continuing some universal level of support, possibly in the form of a higher energy cap, is also on the table.
  • Germany’s IG Metall union has called for further strike action on Monday. Strikes will take place at targeted locations in the states of Hesse, Thuringia and Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the union cited by Reuters.
  • ECB’s Panetta says monetary policy needs to tighten so that inflation does not become entrenched, the consequences of possible errors may not be perceptible today, but they would become evident over time. It may then be too late to fully reverse them.

FX

  • DXY spent much of the morning attempting to reclaim the 107.00 mark, with peers deriving modest upside as such though this was mixed with EUR and GBP a touch softer, for instance.
  • However, the index has since surpassed the 107.00 handle and lifted to a 107.19 peak to the detriment of peers across the board, though EUR and GBP haven’t slipped much further and reside around 1.03 and 1.1750 respectively.
  • Traditional havens CHF and JPY are the current laggards, with the JPY particularly impaired and USD/JPY above 140.50 as such and was perhaps spurred by Governor Kuroda reminding that they are to continue with monetary easing.
  • Yuan drew much of the focus overnight after the PBoC set its strongest fix since late-September and amid two-way newsflow for the region regarding property support and COVID controls; CNY concluded the domestic session at 7.0378.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0899 vs exp. 7.0896 (prev. 7.1907); strongest fix since Sep 27th
  • RBI Governor Das said India has a major challenge with regard to inflation. He added that the RBI’s FX interventions are impacted by day-to-day developments, and the objective is to prevent excessive volatility. Das added that the RBI’s reserves are very comfortable, via Reuters.

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks were relatively rangebound in the European morning, with the benchmarks struggling to derive any lasting traction from brief forays some 30/40 ticks either side of the unchanged mark.
  • However, a concerted bid has been seen most recently in EGBs and Gilts; perhaps spurred by ECB’s Panetta who placed emphasis on the risk of policy errors.
  • Stateside, USTs are a touch softer and are playing catchup to the Veteran’s Day holiday on Friday and also conscious of remarks from Fed’s Waller who has pushed-back on the post-CPI pricing.
  • As such, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks towards the mid-point of 111.27+ to 112.06+ parameters with yields elevated though the 10yr is sub-4.00% and significantly shy of last week’s 4.24% peak.

In commodities

  • Crude benchmarks have been slipping throughout the European morning as initial upside on the USD’s pullback dissipated with the DXY now back above 107.00.
  • Benchmarks are near session lows on the above action and also amid a further strengthening of COVID measures within Beijing after the city reports the highest number of cases in a year.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said India can buy Russian oil at any price if it does not use Western insurance or maritime services, according to a Reuters interview, and said the existence of a G7 oil price cap will give India and other developing countries leverage in bargaining with Russia on oil. Yellen said they are happy for India, China, and Africa to get a “bargain” on Russian oil, inside or outside the price cap. An Indian government official said they do not believe India will follow the price cap mechanism and have communicated that to the countries.
  • OPEC+ “may discuss adjustments to members’ oil production baselines in early December as many of them struggle to meet their agreed quotas”, according to Energy Intel. “Delegates said it is too early to predict what might happen in Vienna in terms of any potential changes to the alliance’s production policy or baseline adjustments. “
  • Iraq’s Prime Minister said Iraq is keen to commit to OPEC policies and decisions but the OPEC production quota should be reconsidered by OPEC members. Iraqi PM added that Iraq needs to raise its oil production to generate more revenues and is keen to maintain stable oil prices of “not above USD 100/bbl”. Iraq said it will have a discussion with OPEC members to increase its production quota, via Reuters.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM) announced the first LNG cargo from the Coral South FLNG project in Mozambique, the floating production vessel is expected to produce up to 3.4mln metric tons of LNG per annum, via Reuters.
  • JPMorgan expects Brent to re-test USD 100/bbl in Q4-2022 and average USD 98/bbl in 2023, via Reuters.
  • Earthquake magnitude 6.4 hit around 20km North-west of Lebu, Chile, according to EMSC.
  • Both precious and base metals have succumbed to the USD’s relative resurgence with additional headwinds from the mentioned COVID controls. Specifically, spot gold has slipped back towards the USD 1750/oz mark.

Crypto

  • FTX was subject to a hack with “mysterious” outflows totalling over USD 600mln, according to CoinDesk. FTX said it has been hacked and instructed users not to install new updates and to delete all FTX apps.
  • FTX CEO John Ray said unauthorised access to certain assets has occurred. FTX is in the process of removing trading and withdrawal function to a new cold wallet custodian, via Reuters.
  • Hedge fund Galois Capital said that close to half of its capital is stuck on the FTX Exchange, according to FT.
  • Hong Kong’s AAX Exchange is suspending withdrawals for up to 10 days, as the failure of FTX reverberates through crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.
  • Crypto lender BlockFi has paused withdrawals and limited platform activity amid FTX collapse, according to Bloomberg
  • Crypto Exchange Huobi says it will continue to take all appropriate steps to withdraw crypto assets from FTX as soon as possible; the incident does not currently affect normal business operations of the group, according to Reuters.
  • Visa (V) has terminated its global debit card agreement with FTX, according to a Visa spokesperson via Reuters.
  • Binance CEO, on crypto exchanges, said there are still quite a lot of players that cut corners, via Reuters. Subsequently, says they are forming an industry recovery fund, to assist projects which are otherwise strong but are in a liquidity crisis.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister said Russian counterpart Lavrov has not asked for a meeting, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv’s forces have taken control of over 60 settlements in the Kherson region. He added that Ukrainian forces are holding firm as brutal battles take place every day in the Donetsk region, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov arrived in Indonesia for the G20 Summit, according to Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said some Russian sanctions could be extended beyond the end of the war in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they will determine the price level for the Russian oil price cap in the coming weeks, via Reuters.

US-China latest

  • US President Biden says US and China can manage differences and stop competition from turning into conflict, expects US and China to play a role in address climate and food shortages.
  • Chinese President Xi says has stayed in touch with US President Biden via video but it is no replacement for in-person meetings, both nations need to chart their course and find the right direction for the relationship and elevate it. Prepared to have a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the US-China relationship.
  • The White House said further engagement after the Biden-Xi meeting could include face-to-face meetings, according to Reuters. Stated prior to the meeting
  • US President Biden will make it clear in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that the US does not seek competition or conflict, and the meeting could last “a couple of hours”, according to Reuters citing the White House National Security Adviser Sullivan. Stated prior to the meeting
  • US President Biden underscored that freedom of navigation and overflight must be respected in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden will raise the issue of North Korea with Chinese President Xi at the G20 Summit, according to the White House. Biden will tell Xi that if North Korea continues, there will be more enhanced US military presence in the region.
  • Blackrock (BLK) has shelved its China bond ETF amid growing tensions between the US and China alongside a reversal in the China-US yield differential, according to FT.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen will ask for clarity on China’s plans to ease COVID restrictions alongside issues in the Chinese property market, in a meeting with the PBoC Governor, according to Treasury officials cited by Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will likely discuss export controls with Chinese officials, according to Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing scheduled

Central Bank Speakers

  • 11:30: Fed’s Brainard Discusses the Economic Outlook
  • 18:30: Fed’s Williams Moderates Panel at the Economic Club of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s feels to me we’re in a race against time for markets and the global economy over the next 12 months. Can inflation slow quickly enough for central banks to be able to slow down their hiking cycles enough to avoid systemic accidents? Last week was a great mini case study of the race to come as the bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX battled it out with a big downward surprise in US inflation. Ultimately the latter won out handsomely, but you can’t help thinking that the rate hiking cycle has claimed another victim with regards to FTX even if other things might also be at play with this company. In a world of free liquidity seen over the prior decade, lots of money has flowed into things that on the surface make little sense but have been transformed into multi-billion or even multi-trillion industries.

Most people I speak to don’t think the current crypto implosion is systemic and this could very well be correct. However, what’s next to unwind/unravel in a hiking cycle that’s not over yet even with slower US inflation last week? The way I like to think about it is that it’s much easier for things not to be systemic when US payrolls are still averaging +289k as they have been over the last 3 months. They averaged +444k in H1. Fast forward 6-9 months when they’re likely to be negative and things that break in the financial system could easily turn more systemic.

In the near-term the technicals and fundamentals continue to be more supportive. Impressive levels of European gas storage due to the weather, very short positioning in US equities, mid-terms being out the way, positive seasonals, less event risk in the Russian/Ukraine war, and now softer US inflation than expected are all helping. However, it’s completely feasible to see a year-end rally and still think risk markets will ultimately be a lot lower in 12 months’ time. Indeed, this morning my new Credit Strategy team have just updated a tactical bullish piece (link here) we put out at the end of October (link to that piece here) suggesting that spreads have room to rally through year-end and early Q1’23, especially with investors bearishly positioned into a period of bullish seasonals. We prefer cash credit over synthetic with banks the favoured sector. Our bearish YE 2023 targets haven’t changed since early April but we’ll be updating this in our 2023 outlook next week.

The most interesting thing about Friday was that European yields, which rallied hard with the US on Thursday, reversed their entire gains on Friday with 10yr Bunds -15bps and then +15bps. The China 20-point Covid restriction easing plan released earlier that day seemed to help. As the US bond market was closed on Friday it’s only responded this morning and 2 and 10yr yields are both around 8bps higher, trading at 4.41% and 3.89%, respectively, as we go to press. Helping that move, this morning in Sydney, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that policy makers still had “a ways to go” before stopping interest-rate hikes despite inflation softening in October. He added that the Fed would like to see a similar run of soft CPI readings to take a foot off the brake. He also seemed worried that the market reaction last week was similar to that seen in July where financial conditions loosened more than the Fed wanted. We’ll see how the other Fed speakers react to last week’s CPI later this week.

Elsewhere in the overnight session, not content with a 20-point Covid plan, China also released a 16-point plan to support the fragile domestic property sector. This came public over the weekend. So it seems that the passing of the party congress has led to a loosening of both restrictions and policies. With the new composition of the ruling party it wasn’t clear that this was going to be the case, so this is welcome news for anything China growth related, though the news need to be factored in against the increasing number of Covid cases recorded across the country.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, but with China risk leading the way. The Hang Seng (+2.92%) is leading gains with mainland Chinese equities also rallying with the Shanghai Composite (+0.75%) and the CSI (+1.16%) both edging higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.82%) is trading in negative territory as heavyweight SoftBank plunged more than -10% after its Vision Fund posted further losses while failing to announce a widely expected share buyback. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (-0.02%) is struggling to find direction. Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a negative start today, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.29%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.49%) edging lower. Crypto has remained under pressure as Bitcoin fell as low as $15,846, recording its lowest levels in around two years amid FTX’s deepening woes. It was over $20,000 early last week.

Looking forward and it’s not a blockbuster week for data but there are still some important potential highlights. The US consumer will be in focus, with retail sales (Wednesday) and major retailers’ earnings including Walmart and Home Depot (tomorrow) due amongst others. Other major US data releases will include housing market indicators and the PPI (tomorrow). In geopolitics, the G20 summit will run from Tuesday to Wednesday and the COP27 will end on Friday. The G20 will be watched closely for signs of how aligned the members are on the continued war in Ukraine and also for any headlines around Presidents Biden and President Xi’s side meeting.

China macro and micro will also be in focus with industrial production and retail sales data (both tomorrow), as well as earnings from major tech firms like Tencent and Alibaba. Japan’s GDP and inflation will also be due. In Europe, the UK will release inflation (Wednesday) and employment (tomorrow) data with the government’s autumn statement is taking place on Thursday. The latter is less important now that policy credibility has been restored but will still give us a lot of info about the direction for travel in UK policy.

In more detail on some of the main events now. The US PPI tomorrow deserves some decent attention as it will give some insight into the upcoming core PCE which clearly remains the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. October’s headline (+0.4% forecast vs. +0.4% previously) and core PPI (+0.3% vs. +0.3%) are expected to show similar gains to the prior month but the real focus will be on health care services series, which is a direct input into the core PCE deflator. This series has been very volatile of late but has shown signs of easing. So all eyes on this. Heath care was a huge downside surprise in last week’s CPI.

Speaking of inflation, housing data will also be in focus after this week’s CPI print showed some moderation in rental price pressures and also with mortgage rates having recently been at 22-year highs. Among indicators released will be housing starts and permits on Thursday and existing home sales on Friday.

In terms of corporate earnings, there won’t be many major American companies reporting aside from the aforementioned retailers with over 90% of the S&P 500 members having already released results. In tech, we will get NVIDIA and Cisco on Wednesday and Applied Materials and Palo Alto Networks on Thursday. Over in Europe, notable companies reporting include Vodafone and Infineon on Tuesday and Siemens on Thursday.

The day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual and as you’ll see it also includes numerous ECB and Fed speakers throughout the week, including President Lagarde (Wednesday and Friday).

Recapping last week now and it was yet another wild week that saw a US election, major battleground advances for Ukrainian forces, a major crypto blowup, and a below expectations CPI report that gave the market signs of a potential Fed pivot that it has been desperately hoping for. All in four days on a holiday shortened week for fixed income markets in the US.

Starting with bonds, Treasury yields rallied big this week following the below expectations October CPI report. That saw 10yr yields down -34.6bps and 2yr yields -32.6bps lower, the largest weekly decline in both tenors since the initial Covid onset in March 2020, as pricing for the December meeting finished the week just shy of 50bps at 49.8bps, while terminal pricing ended the week at 4.89% for next spring, its first close below 4.9% in two weeks.

10yr yields also fell in Europe, but lagged the US move, where bunds fell -13.5bps (+15.1bps Friday) and gilts were -17.9bps lower (+6.6bps Friday). European yields sold off Friday when Treasury trading was closed, following reports that China was easing more of their Covid restrictions and with University of Michigan inflation expectations over the next 5 years hitting their highest level in 5 months at 3%. The S&P 500 gained +5.90% (+0.92% Friday) while the Nasdaq +8.1% (1.88% Friday) outperformed with the index being comfortably lower for the week before Thursday’s CPI. European shares also climbed, with the STOXX +3.66% higher (+0.09% Friday) and the Dax up +5.68% (+0.56% Friday).

Finally, reports that FTX, the second-largest crypto exchange was going under, drove a route in crypto assets, that saw Bitcoin fall -20.72% over the week and -5.95% on Friday.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

DXY has reclaimed 107.00, US futures and USTs softer following Fed’s Waller – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses are posting mild gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with participants awaiting the conclusion of the Biden-Xi meeting.
  • Stateside, futures are pressured as the recent rally seemingly runs out of steam and also following Fed’s Waller pushing back on the post-CPI reaction, ES -0.4%.
  • DXY has surpassed the 107.00 mark to the detriment of the traditional havens while the Yuan continues to draw focus.
  • A concerted bid has recently been seen in EGBs, perhaps post-Panetta; however, USTs remain softer and attentive to remarks from Waller
  • Commodities have been slipping throughout the session, amid the USD’s relative resurgence and following renewed COVID controls in Beijing
  • Looking ahead, highlights include a speech from ECB’s de Guindos, BoC’s Macklem, Fed’s Williams & a BoE Short-term gilt sale.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are posting mild gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with participants awaiting the conclusion of the Biden-Xi meeting.
  • Sectors were predominantly in the green, though performance has turned more mixed as the session progresses.
  • Stateside, futures are pressured as the recent rally seemingly runs out of steam and also following Fed’s Waller pushing back on the post-CPI reaction, ES -0.4%.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY spent much of the morning attempting to reclaim the 107.00 mark, with peers deriving modest upside as such though this was mixed with EUR and GBP a touch softer, for instance.
  • However, the index has since surpassed the 107.00 handle and lifted to a 107.19 peak to the detriment of peers across the board, though EUR and GBP haven’t slipped much further and reside around 1.03 and 1.1750 respectively.
  • Traditional havens CHF and JPY are the current laggards, with the JPY particularly impaired and USD/JPY above 140.50 as such and was perhaps spurred by Governor Kuroda reminding that they are to continue with monetary easing.
  • Yuan drew much of the focus overnight after the PBoC set its strongest fix since late-September and amid two-way newsflow for the region regarding property support and COVID controls; CNY concluded the domestic session at 7.0378.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0899 vs exp. 7.0896 (prev. 7.1907); strongest fix since Sep 27th
  • RBI Governor Das said India has a major challenge with regard to inflation. He added that the RBI’s FX interventions are impacted by day-to-day developments, and the objective is to prevent excessive volatility. Das added that the RBI’s reserves are very comfortable, via Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks were relatively rangebound in the European morning, with the benchmarks struggling to derive any lasting traction from brief forays some 30/40 ticks either side of the unchanged mark.
  • However, a concerted bid has been seen most recently in EGBs and Gilts; perhaps spurred by ECB’s Panetta who placed emphasis on the risk of policy errors.
  • Stateside, USTs are a touch softer and are playing catchup to the Veteran’s Day holiday on Friday and also conscious of remarks from Fed’s Waller who has pushed-back on the post-CPI pricing.
  • As such, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks towards the mid-point of 111.27+ to 112.06+ parameters with yields elevated though the 10yr is sub-4.00% and significantly shy of last week’s 4.24% peak.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks have been slipping throughout the European morning as initial upside on the USD’s pullback dissipated with the DXY now back above 107.00.
  • Benchmarks are near session lows on the above action and also amid a further strengthening of COVID measures within Beijing after the city reports the highest number of cases in a year.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said India can buy Russian oil at any price if it does not use Western insurance or maritime services, according to a Reuters interview, and said the existence of a G7 oil price cap will give India and other developing countries leverage in bargaining with Russia on oil. Yellen said they are happy for India, China, and Africa to get a “bargain” on Russian oil, inside or outside the price cap. An Indian government official said they do not believe India will follow the price cap mechanism and have communicated that to the countries.
  • OPEC+ “may discuss adjustments to members’ oil production baselines in early December as many of them struggle to meet their agreed quotas”, according to Energy Intel. “Delegates said it is too early to predict what might happen in Vienna in terms of any potential changes to the alliance’s production policy or baseline adjustments. “
  • Iraq’s Prime Minister said Iraq is keen to commit to OPEC policies and decisions but the OPEC production quota should be reconsidered by OPEC members. Iraqi PM added that Iraq needs to raise its oil production to generate more revenues and is keen to maintain stable oil prices of “not above USD 100/bbl”. Iraq said it will have a discussion with OPEC members to increase its production quota, via Reuters.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM) announced the first LNG cargo from the Coral South FLNG project in Mozambique, the floating production vessel is expected to produce up to 3.4mln metric tons of LNG per annum, via Reuters.
  • JPMorgan expects Brent to re-test USD 100/bbl in Q4-2022 and average USD 98/bbl in 2023, via Reuters.
  • Earthquake magnitude 6.4 hit around 20km North-west of Lebu, Chile, according to EMSC.
  • Both precious and base metals have succumbed to the USD’s relative resurgence with additional headwinds from the mentioned COVID controls. Specifically, spot gold has slipped back towards the USD 1750/oz mark.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • FTX was subject to a hack with “mysterious” outflows totalling over USD 600mln, according to CoinDesk. FTX said it has been hacked and instructed users not to install new updates and to delete all FTX apps.
  • FTX CEO John Ray said unauthorised access to certain assets has occurred. FTX is in the process of removing trading and withdrawal function to a new cold wallet custodian, via Reuters.
  • Hedge fund Galois Capital said that close to half of its capital is stuck on the FTX Exchange, according to FT.
  • Hong Kong’s AAX Exchange is suspending withdrawals for up to 10 days, as the failure of FTX reverberates through crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.
  • Crypto lender BlockFi has paused withdrawals and limited platform activity amid FTX collapse, according to Bloomberg
  • Crypto Exchange Huobi says it will continue to take all appropriate steps to withdraw crypto assets from FTX as soon as possible; the incident does not currently affect normal business operations of the group, according to Reuters.
  • Visa (V) has terminated its global debit card agreement with FTX, according to a Visa spokesperson via Reuters.
  • Binance CEO, on crypto exchanges, said there are still quite a lot of players that cut corners, via Reuters. Subsequently, says they are forming an industry recovery fund, to assist projects which are otherwise strong but are in a liquidity crisis.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK Chancellor Hunt said he will set out a long-term plan for energy, and said we do have to increase taxes and cut spending. He said he wants to make sure a recession is as short and shallow as possible if the UK falls into one. He added that he will be talking about constraints on the labour force in the budget plan, via Reuters.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt said the OBR forecasts will likely present a similar picture to recent BoE forecasts of a recession. Hunt plans to commit around GBP 20bln to extend the energy price guarantee scheme by six months from April and is eyeing a multi-billion-pound package to shield pensioners and benefit claimants from the increases in power bills, according to The Times.
  • UK Treasury discussing raising energy price cap from April; department considers making policy announcement in the autumn statement rather than waiting until spring, according to Guardian sources. It is understood that continuing some universal level of support, possibly in the form of a higher energy cap, is also on the table.
  • Germany’s IG Metall union has called for further strike action on Monday. Strikes will take place at targeted locations in the states of Hesse, Thuringia and Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the union cited by Reuters.
  • ECB’s Panetta says monetary policy needs to tighten so that inflation does not become entrenched, the consequences of possible errors may not be perceptible today, but they would become evident over time. It may then be too late to fully reverse them.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK Rightmove House Price Index MM (Jun) -1.1% (Prev. +0.9%); Y/Y 7.2% (Prev. 7.8%).
  • EU Industrial Production MM (Sep) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.5%, Rev. 2.0%); YY (Sep) 4.9% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.5%, Rev. 2.8%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINE

  • Fed’s Waller (Voter) said the recent CPI report is “just one data point and markets are “way out in front”. Waller added that they will need to see a run of CPI reports to take the foot off the brake. He said 7.7% CPI inflation is “enormous” and the Fed still has a long way to go, rates will stay longer for a while. He said rate hikes so far have not broken anything, and he looks at potentially hiking 50bps at the next meeting or after. He noted that the US housing market will be okay and the household balance sheet remains in good shape. Waller said there was always going to be a communications challenge to signal the slowdown in the pace of hikes and the Fed is “not softening”. Waller added that the signal was to pay attention to the endpoint, not the pace of rate increases, and until inflation slows, that endpoint is “a way out“, via Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said it would be irresponsible not to raise the US debt ceiling, according to a Reuters interview.
  • US House Speaker Pelosi said it would be important to have either a permanent or a very large extension of the debt limit during the remainder of the congressional session, according to an ABC Interview. Pelosi said he has no plans to step away from Congress.
  • Goldman Sachs sees a significant decline in inflation in 2023, sees US core PCE measure falling to 2.9% from 5.1% currently by December 2023, via Reuters.
  • Disney (DIS) is reportedly planning a targeted hiring freeze and job cuts, according to CNBC.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

US MID-TERM ELECTIONS

  • Democrats will retain control of the Senate as NBC News projects that Catherine Cortez Masto wins the Nevada Senate race.
  • Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly defeated Republican Challenger Blake Masters in the race for the US Senate seat in Arizona, according to Edison Research.
  • Edison Research projects Democrats win another seat in the US House, bringing the total to 206; 218 needed for control.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister said Russian counterpart Lavrov has not asked for a meeting, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv’s forces have taken control of over 60 settlements in the Kherson region. He added that Ukrainian forces are holding firm as brutal battles take place every day in the Donetsk region, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov arrived in Indonesia for the G20 Summit, according to Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said some Russian sanctions could be extended beyond the end of the war in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they will determine the price level for the Russian oil price cap in the coming weeks, via Reuters.

US-CHINA

  • US President Biden says US and China can manage differences and stop competition from turning into conflict, expects US and China to play a role in address climate and food shortages.
  • Chinese President Xi says has stayed in touch with US President Biden via video but it is no replacement for in-person meetings, both nations need to chart their course and find the right direction for the relationship and elevate it. Prepared to have a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the US-China relationship.
  • The White House said further engagement after the Biden-Xi meeting could include face-to-face meetings, according to Reuters. Stated prior to the meeting
  • US President Biden will make it clear in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that the US does not seek competition or conflict, and the meeting could last “a couple of hours”, according to Reuters citing the White House National Security Adviser Sullivan. Stated prior to the meeting
  • US President Biden underscored that freedom of navigation and overflight must be respected in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden will raise the issue of North Korea with Chinese President Xi at the G20 Summit, according to the White House. Biden will tell Xi that if North Korea continues, there will be more enhanced US military presence in the region.
  • Blackrock (BLK) has shelved its China bond ETF amid growing tensions between the US and China alongside a reversal in the China-US yield differential, according to FT.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen will ask for clarity on China’s plans to ease COVID restrictions alongside issues in the Chinese property market, in a meeting with the PBoC Governor, according to Treasury officials cited by Reuters.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will likely discuss export controls with Chinese officials, according to Bloomberg.

OTHER

  • US President Biden does not plan a sit-down meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman during the G20 Summit, according to Reuters citing the White House National Security Adviser Sullivan.
  • South Korean President Yoon hopes for trilateral talks with China and Japan, according to Yonhap. Yoon added that if North Korea conducts another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test or its 7th nuclear test, the international community should respond with one voice.
  • South Korean President Yoon has called for a strengthening in extended deterrence in response to North Korea’s growing nuclear threats, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden said the US, Japan, and South Korea are more aligned than ever on North Korea. Biden said the US discussed with South Korea and Japan the strengthening of supply chains, via Reuters.
  • White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US, Japan, and South Korea have a coordinated response if North Korea carries out its 7th nuclear test, via Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin spoke to his Iranian counterpart and both leaders emphasised the need to intensify political, trade, and economic cooperation, according to a Kremlin statement.
  • Russian and US delegations are holding talks within Turkey, via Reuters citing Kommersant
  • Australian PM said he had a very positive and constructive conversation with China’s Premier, and added that Australia has an alliance with the UK and the US, but should cooperate with China where possible, via Reuters.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said China is stepping up actions that infringe on Japan’s sovereignty, according to JiJi.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said they are continuing to prepare a meeting with Chinese President Xi but no date has been set yet. Kishida said the US, China, and South Korea mainly discussed South Korea at its trilateral meeting and did not discuss other geopolitical issues such as Taiwan, via Reuters.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was in hospital for a checkup, has since left the hospital, via Bali governor. Note, the Russian Foreign Minister described this as fake news

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks eventually traded mostly lower despite the positive lead from Wall Street on Friday.
  • ASX 200 was contained on either side of the flat mark with losses in Industrials, Telecoms and Healthcare offsetting the gains from the Metals, Mining, and Materials sectors.
  • Nikkei 225 saw its losses lead by Softbank shares tumbling over 12% following its earnings on Friday, which saw the Co’s Vision Fund post a quarterly net loss.
  • KOSPI eventually faded earlier gains following the trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea over the weekend, in which White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US, Japan, and South Korea have a coordinated response if North Korea carries out its 7th nuclear test.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded in the green for most of the session, with Hong Kong outperforming following source reports that the PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, with the Hang Seng Property index surging over 15% in early trade, but traders remain cognizant of the Biden-Xi meeting poised to take place on Monday at 09:30GMT/04:30EST.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Beijing authorities stated on Monday to further strengthen COVID prevention and control measures and reminded residents not to go out unless necessary. The measures are seen as a response to the mounting pressure of soaring cases in the city, according to Global Times.
  • China reported 1,794 new confirmed COVID cases in the Mainland on Nov 13th (vs 1,711 on Nov 12).
  • Beijing reported the highest number of local COVID cases in over a year, reporting 404 cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, according to Reuters sources. Bloomberg reported that China’s real estate rescue package consists of a 16-point playbook for finance officials across the country, according to sources.
  • China’s Securities Journal noted that China is expected to inject liquidity via a new MFL (unverified).
  • PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 3bln net drain.
  • PBoC issues a notice to further support the extension of loan repayments for small firms.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said the Japanese economy is picking up; now is the stage to continue monetary easing to support the economy, according to Reuters. Kuroda said they are closely watching the impact of raw material inflation and currency moves on firms and households. Kuroda said the BoJ and the government are closely monitoring the impact of FX, and market moves on the economy and prices; and said abnormally one-sided sharp JPY weakening appears to have paused, partly thanks to the government’s FX intervention.
  • Earthquake shakes buildings in Tokyo, Japan, via Reuters; prelim. magnitude of 6.1 via NIED. Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near the S. Coast of Honshu, Japan, via EMSC

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.89 PTS OR 0.13%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 294.05 OR  1.70%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 300.10 OR 1.06%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.00%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.0700 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.0591//    /Oil DOWN TO 87.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94/64    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3c CHINA

CHINA/ECONOMY

China pivots as they issue a sweeping property rescue package to kickstart their economy

Beijing Pivots: China Issues Sweeping Property “Rescue Package” To Kickstart Economy

Just days after China unexpectedly eased covid zero restrictions, sending commodities across the globe soaring amid hopes that China’s covid crackdown may be finally ending, Bloomberg reported late on Saturday that Beijing has issued “sweeping relaxation measures on property and Covid controls”, in what the media outlet called the strongest signal yet that President Xi Jinping is now turning his attention on rescuing the economy.

Confirming that China is increasingly concerned about its sinking economy, not to mention the local property market which Goldman last year calculated was the world’s largest asset class…

… Bloomberg reported that Beijing issued its most extensive 16-point rescue package for the struggling real estate market, citing “people familiar with the matter”, marking a decisive effort to turn around an economy devastated by two years of Covid Zero curbs.

Specifically, the PBOC and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Friday jointly issued a notice to financial institutions laying out plans to ensure the “stable and healthy development” of the property sector. Unlike previous piecemeal steps which were purposefully vague, the notice included 16 measures that range from addressing the liquidity crisis faced by developers to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers.

As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust borrowings due within the next six months can be extended for a year, while repayment on their bonds can also be extended or swapped through negotiations, Bloomberg sources added.

The major policy shifts by Xi’s government, first on covid and now on property, will aid China’s growth outlook and add fuel to a market rally that sent a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong up 17% in the past two weeks. It also ends a long period of policy paralysis before last month’s Communist Party congress when Xi jockeyed for a third term.

It’s also a stark reversal from the gloom that descended over markets in late October, after Xi’s elevation of close allies to the highest rungs of power stoked concern that ideology would trump pragmatism for the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has now erased losses suffered in the immediate wake of the party congress, swinging from one of the world’s worst-performing stock gauges to among the best.

“It’s a meaningful easing,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie. “It seems that the room for policy change has widened on various fronts after the Party Congress, including for the two major headwinds to the Chinese economy: Covid Zero and property.”

As part of its attempt to kickstart the economy, on Friday Beijing also issued a set of measures to recalibrate their pandemic response, publicly outlining a 20-point playbook for officials aimed at reducing the economic and social impact of containing the virus, although as Bloomberg was quick to note, “the changes by no means signal the end of Covid Zero” and indeed, a day after releasing the new parameters, officials were quick to clarify that Covid rules were being refined, not relaxed, and a strict attitude toward stamping out infections remains China’s guiding principle.

The proposed changes take place just before Xi is set to meet US President Joe Biden Monday on the sidelines of a G-20 summit, in the first head-to-head meeting between the two heads of state since the pandemic began. Bloomberg adds that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will seek information on China’s Covid lockdown policies and the troubled property sector during a meeting with central bank Governor Yi Gang this week, according to senior Treasury Department officials.

Meanwhile, even with the rescue package, investors of Chinese property dollar bonds are still likely facing massive losses.

“The extreme pessimism in markets has finally led to a key policy change on the two biggest overhangs over the economy,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “It’s still hard to say whether this is going to be a turning point for the economy though.”

Authorities have sought to defuse the property crisis with a raft of (largely toothless) measures in the past few months, including cutting interest rates, urging major banks to extend 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of financing in the final months of the year, and offering special loans through policy banks to ensure property projects are delivered. None of those measures, however, have made any material dent in China’s rapidly slowing property market.  Last week, China also expanded a key financing support program designed for private firms including real estate companies to about 250 billion yuan, a move that could help developers sell more bonds and ease their liquidity woes.

One of the biggest policy changes in the latest notice is to allow a “temporary” easing of restrictions on bank lending to developers.  As a reminder, China began imposing caps on bank’s property lending in 2021, as authorities sought to tighten the reins on a bubble-prone industry and curb leverage at some of the nation’s largest developers. Banks not meeting the current restrictions will be given extra time to meet the requirement, said the people.

In addition, regulators encouraged lenders to negotiate with homebuyers on extending mortgage repayment, and emphasized that buyers’ credit scores will be protected. That may alleviate the risk of social unrest among homebuyers who have engaged in a widespread boycott on mortgage payments since July.

Meanwhile, China’s $2.4 trillion new-home market remains fragile and property debt defaults have surged, sparking increasingly concerns about social unrest. Price declines in the existing-home market were the most extreme in almost eight years in September, according to the latest official data. At banks, the proportion of bad loans related to property has surged to 30%, according to Citigroup estimates.

But while Chinese stocks have suffered depression-level declines in recent weeks, as a result of relentless home price declines, now in their second year…

… signs of easing property curbs and pandemic restrictions have led to a sharp rebound in China assets. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers’ stocks jumped a record 18% Friday, with Country Garden Holdings Co. surging 35%.

Still, Bloomberg cautions that the financial backstop is dwarfed by the looming debt maturities facing developers. China’s property sector has at least $292 billion of onshore and offshore borrowings coming due through the end of 2023. That includes $53.7 billion in borrowings this year, followed by $72.3 billion of maturities in the first quarter of next year.

So while Beijing’s move is welcome, much more will be needed to convince markets that systemic risk has been mitigated: “China developers are facing another peak in debt maturity next year, if regulators don’t make adjustments for property-related policies, developer liquidity will continue to deteriorate,” said Shen. “This will very likely trigger systemic financial risk.”

end

CHINA/COVID

This will be their death knell: continued zero COVID policy

(Wu/EpochTimes)

CCP Shortens Quarantines But Continues Zero-COVID Policy

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Chinese communist regime announced on Nov. 11 that it would relax some COVID-19 restrictions, but said it won’t change its zero-COVID policy. Meanwhile, the regime has been implementing more lockdowns in its southern megacity of Guangzhou.

The regime’s State Council and the National Health Commission announced 20 relaxation measures for COVID-19 epidemic control on Friday, including reducing the seven-day centralized quarantine to five days of at-home quarantine. It also canceled the controversial circuit breaker mechanism for inbound flights and reduce the two negative PCR test results within 48 hours needed before boarding a flight to one.

Despite the relaxation, China’s COVID-19 restrictions are still the most restrictive in the world, while other governments have basically allowed their residents to return to normal life.

Also on Nov. 11, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a press briefing that the regime will continue to “unswervingly implement the general policy of ‘zero-COVID.’”

This policy has weighed greatly on China’s economic development, and brought immense suffering and countless tragedies to the Chinese people. It has also triggered increasing domestic opposition to the government policies for strict COVID-19 control measures.

At the same time, the CCP’s official media have published commentaries blaming local authorities for the improper role-out of COVID-19 control measures while they are implementing CCP leader Xi Jinping’s “zero-COVID” policies.

Regarding the relaxation of some of the control measures, China Affair commentator Zhou Xiaohui pointed out in his column for The Epoch Times, “In the face of an increasingly uncontrollable situation, life under COVID-19 control has become increasingly unbearable for the people. And in a worsening social atmosphere, Xi and the communist regime had to loosen their grip a little to reduce public grievances and the domestic crisis that the regime may usher in by shifting the blame to the local authorities.”

International media, such as The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, citing analysts, also warned that the international community shouldn’t be overly optimistic about the relaxation, as the changes are just minor adjustments. They anticipate the Chinese regime’s “zero-COVID” policy will continue indefinitely.

Locking Down Another Megacity

Meanwhile, the Chinese regime continues to lockdown more cities and conduct mass COVID-19 testing.

Guangzhou, the provincial capital of Guangdong in south China, is now on the brink of a city-wide lockdown, with millions of residents undergoing mass testing and being shut in at home.

Haizhu District in the city has already been locked down since Nov. 11, according to official notice. All residents in the district must stay at home and undergo regular mass PRC testing.

One person in each household is allowed to go out once every day to buy basic necessities nearby.

Public transportation has been suspended, including subways, buses, taxis, and online car-hailing services. The entrances and exits of the highways in Haizhu District are closed, and temporary traffic control has been implemented across the district.

Mr. Chen (pseudonym), the owner of a barbecue restaurant in Haizhu District of Guangzhou City, has five or six employees who live in two dormitories. He told The Epoch Times on Nov. 11, “My restaurant is not allowed to open; food and supplies have not been distributed to us; only the large supermarkets can stay opened, which will have a great impact on the economy.”

Chen said that after the lockdown notice was issued, everyone went out to shop to stock up on food. “There are a lot of people shopping, and if they are slow, the goods will be gone, such as green vegetables are no longer available for grabs.”

Since Nov. 10, a number of high-risk areas and temporary control areas have been added to the lockdown list in other districts of Guangzhou.

Mr. Zhao (pseudonym), the owner of an art studio in Baiyun District of Guangzhou, told The Epoch Times on Nov. 11 that there have been COVID-19 cases reported in various districts in Guangzhou, and basically every village has shut down and many businesses have been suspended for almost a month.

“There are basically barriers on the streets everywhere to blockade various neighborhoods, no more than 500 meters (0.3 mile) away from each other,” Zhao described.

Xiao Lusheng and Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

UK Misery index to worsen as their economy shrinks more than expected

(zerohedge)

UK ‘Misery’ To Worsen As Economy Shrinks More Than Expected In September

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Britain’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday said the nation’s economy contracted 0.2% in the July-September period, the first quarterly contraction in over a year.

Commenting on the GDP data, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:

“I am under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead — one which will require extremely difficult decisions to restore confidence and economic stability”

The 0.2% contraction in the UK contrasts with the 0.2% expansion seen across the EU.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the UK economy had slipped to the back of the G7 pack again, “beset by more intense headwinds from fiscal and monetary policy, and substantial long-term supply-side damage from Covid and Brexit”.

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, ONS said that GDP fell 0.6% between August and September (worse then expected), reportedly impacted in part by businesses closing for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.

Finance spokeswoman for the main opposition Labour party described the third-quarter GDP numbers as “extremely worrying”.

As well as a recession, Britain is facing a cost-of-living crisis with UK inflation at a four-decade high above 10 percent, screaming ‘stagflation‘ – the central bankers’ nemesis.

In the quarter, real household expenditure fell 0.5% and output in consumer-facing services fell 0.8%. There were also widespread declines across most manufacturing industries.

Sanjay Raja, economist at Deutsche Bank, said the GDP contraction in the third quarter was the result of “continued weakness in household and business confidence, higher inflation and higher interest rates in the economy”.

But it gets worse…

As Bloomberg reports, Britain’s real estate sector recorded its worst return in more than 13 years in the third quarter of 2022 after a sharp rise in borrowing costs weighed on the industry.

The MSCI UK Quarterly Property Index, which tracks retail, office, industrial and residential property, plunged by 4.3% in the three months through September.

That’s the worst performance since the second quarter of 2009, according to research published by MSCI.

“The evaporation of property’s yield premium — amid the recent deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and rising inflation and interest rates — weighed on performance,” Niel Harmse, a senior associate in MSCI’s global real estate research team, wrote in the report.

All of this suggests that UK’s already “miserable” Misery Index is set to soar higher – worse than at any time in the last 30 years…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that this ugly data data comes ahead of the Conservative government’s crucial budget announcement next week aimed at bringing much-needed economic and political stability to Britain.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE//RUSSIA/POLAND/KALININGRAD

Hal Turner Radio Show – Trainloads of Armor and other NATO Military Gear in Poland, Moving Toward Kaliningrad

Robert HryniakSun, Nov 13, 7:39 PM (11 hours ago)
to

If Poland allows a NATO strike on Kaliningrad Poland will cease to exist in the state it is in. Russia will respond with tactical missiles, some could well be nuclear.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/trainloads-of-armor-and-other-nato-military-gear-in-poland-moving-toward-kaliningrad

end

UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA

IMPORTANT!!

BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Tens of Billions of US Dollars Were Transferred to Ukraine and then Using FTX Crypto Currency the Funds Were Laundered Back to Democrats in US ⋆ The Savage Nation

Robert HryniakSun, Nov 13, 8:13 PM (11 hours ago)
to

Usual suspects get their piece.

https://michaelsavage.com/breaking-exclusive-tens-of-billions-of-us-dollars-were-transferred-to-ukraine-and-then-using-ftx-crypto-currency-the-funds-were-laundered-back-to-democrats-in-us/

IRAN/RUSSIA

This is not good:  Russia is basically joining forces with Iran

(Pepe Esobar/Robert H)

Rewiring Eurasia: Mr. Patrushev goes to Tehran

Robert Hryniak9:13 AM (33 minutes ago)
to

Good article. With Germany headed for a 20-30% reduction in economic activity and with inflation running over 10% how does it help anyone with insane sanctions that hurt the imposter so much more than the intended party?
The world is shifting before our eyes while the West remains captive to ineptness  and the thievery of the highest order. Watch who gets royal treatment at the G20 because it will not be the West and it will be clear that life in the West will be readjusted as a result and change cannot be stopped.

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/18115

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

A new study from Israel, and you must pay attention to this: protection from 4th COVID vaccine wanes complete within a few months.  So why on earth should you

vaccinate and take the risks

(zerohedge)

Protection From 4th Dose Of COVID Vaccine Wanes Completely Within Months: Study

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 02:00 PM

Authored by Lia Onely via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An Israeli study found that antibody levels after a fourth dose of the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine returned to similar levels as after the 3rd dose after about four months.An Israeli nurse receives a fourth dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, on Dec. 27, 2021. (Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images)

The study, conducted among health care workers at the Sheba Medical Center, the largest hospital in Israel, found that the immunological protection of the 4th dose “was much smaller and had waned completely by 13 weeks after vaccination.”

It found “no substantial additional effectiveness over a third dose at 15 to 26 weeks after vaccination.”

The authors concluded that these findings suggest the 4th dose and possible future boosters “should be timed wisely to coincide with disease waves or to be available seasonally, similar to the influenza vaccine.”

The six-month follow-up study was published in The New England Journal of Medicine on Nov. 9.

The study led by Dr. Michal Canetti and Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, the head of the Infection Prevention and Control unit at Sheba, followed employees who did not fall ill before the study, beginning Dec. 27, 2021, to July 10, 2022, when the Omicron virus variant was dominant in Israel.

The researchers tested the immune response of 6,113 employees and performed a monthly follow-up of the antibody levels in their blood. In addition, they performed a vaccine effectiveness analysis of 11,176 employees after the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th doses.

The weekly levels of antibodies throughout the period after the receipt of the 3rd and 4th doses were found to be similar and the study said were higher than after receiving the 2nd dose.

Effectiveness of the fourth dose against infection started at just 52 percent during the first five weeks after administration and dropped to negative 2 percent at 15 to 26 weeks. A growing number of studies have detected negative effectiveness, which means the vaccinated are more likely to get infected.

Pfizer did not respond to a request for comment.

Read more here…

GLOBAL ISSUES:  FOOD INFLATION//SHORTAGES IN GENERAL

More evidence that the global economy is collapsing

(zerohedge)

Ports Clogged With Containers As World Trade Stumbles

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 10:30 AM

The latest Bloomberg Trade Tracker reveals an ominous outlook for world trade due to soaring interest rates, the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in the US economy, and zero Covid in China. A shortage of containers has entirely reversed into a glut as crashing shipping rates and canceled sails gain momentum during what is supposed to be the busiest shipping period of the year. 

“The world’s two biggest economies are feeling glum about the export outlook, with both the US and China gauges in contraction in October and the American one in “below-normal” range on the Tracker,” according to Bloomberg

Earlier this week, we explained that economic storm clouds are gathering worldwide as some of the largest shipping companies warn about decelerating global trade. US shipper FedEx and Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have been vocal about emerging signs of a global slowdown.

“Global trade is moving backwards this year,” Maersk’s chief executive officer Soren Skou told Bloomberg Television at the start of November. 

FedEx CFO Michael Lenz told an audience Tuesday at the Robert W Baird Global Industrial Conference earlier this week that his company parked planes cut costs in response to weak demand for package delivery. 

The Covid boom for goods has evaporated. Consumers have switched from buying computers and television to spending whatever money they have left on experiences. 

We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s now peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas. 

Trans-Pacific shipping rates are cratering

Slumping global demand and faltering world trade has led to another problem: a massive container glut at ports. 

“There is just not enough depot space to accommodate all the containers. With the further release of container inventory into the market (e.g., from the disposal of leasing fleets), there will be added pressure on depots in the coming months. 

“This will be a key challenge for some and a competitive advantage for others in the business, especially in China because of the empty container repositioning there,” Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said in an industry update this week. 

Italian container depot owner Sogese chief executive Andrea Monti told Container xChange:

“Whatever was coming in and out of, for instance, our Milan depot is quite stuck. And the container volume at the depots is increasing to an extent that we are returning some requests for depot service agreements. We are in a situation where we are not able to accept new clients for some locations.”

Monti told Container xChange that peak shipping season “technically did not happen this year” because of the global slowdown, as many retailers are left holding high inventory levels. 

Johannes Schlingmeier, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said:

“There is enough inventory with retailers. Once these inventories exhaust in North America and Europe, companies will order again, and demand for shipping capacity will pop back up. This won’t go back to max pandemic levels but certainly be back to the long-term average upward trend. What has happened now is that the cargo is “on time” again and hence you’ll see a slowdown in new ordering as companies adjust to this more efficient turnaround times in ocean freight delivery.

“For container owners, this could potentially mean a rise in container storage fee by depots as more containers pile up to disincentivize longer staying containers at the depots.”

The rise in canceled sailings was reported by maritime research company Drewry, indicated between late November and early December, 14% of sailings have been canceled on the world’s top shipping lanes. 

Container prices on the Los Angeles to Shanghai line and JP Morgan’s consolidated global manufacturing PMIs have declined since late 2021. 

This year’s monetary tightenings by global central banks take about 9-12 months to filter through the real economy, which means world trade will slow even more in the quarters ahead. The latest evidence of trouble ahead if a glut of containers at ports. 

end

Global food import prices soars to an alarming level.  Poor countries are on the brink of a huge crisis

(zerohedge)

Global Food Import Bill Soars To “Alarming Level” As Poor Countries On Brink Of Crisis

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 11:30 AM

A shocking new report via the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) revealed the world food import bill jumped to nearly $2 trillion in 2022 amid soaring inflation due to several factors, including currencies depreciating against the US dollar, the war in Ukraine, and La Nina-related climate change. 

FAO’s Food Outlook expects the tab for imports of wheat, rice, maize, vegetable oils, and all other farm goods will jump to an all-time high and about 10% increase over the record level of 2021, although the agency expects demand destruction in response to elevated food prices and depreciating currencies against the US dollar. 

Food-import bills are skyrocketing for developing countries, with most already in insurmountable debt. Many of these countries are quickly burning through dollar stockpiles at the fastest pace in two decades to defend their currencies against a rallying dollar. 

Falling emerging market currencies means the purchasing power of importing has declined. 

It comes as global food prices remain at lofty levels. 

“These are alarming signs from a food security perspective, indicating importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices,” FAO’s Markets and Trade Division warned in the report. 

Sri Lanka is a prime example of when a country ran out of reserves this year, defaulted on its overseas bonds, and couldn’t afford to import essential items such as food and fuel, which sparked social unrest

FAO also pointed out that wealthier nations will continue importing all sorts of foods while developing countries stick with staples. It also said fertilizers imports would soar to $424 billion in 2022, up 48% from the prior year and as much as 112% from 2020.

“Higher costs for imported energy and fertilizer are behind the foreseen increase. Both are particularly relevant in import bills, posing strains for the current accounts of low-income and lower middle-income countries,” the report said, adding that “As a result, some countries may be forced to reduce input applications, almost inevitably resulting in lower agricultural productivity and lower domestic food availability.”

FAO warned: “Negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security” will likely extend into next year. 

All signs point to a troubling 2023: There are several signs the global food crisis could intensify next year. Several countries could be on the brink of unrest.

end 

PAUL ALEXANDER

Remember this study by Doshi et al.: “Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults”; Secondary analysis of serious adverse events

reported in the placebo-controlled, phase III randomized clinical trials of Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in adults

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 12
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283

‘Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83).

The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI –23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).’

SOURCE:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283

‘Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83).

The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI –23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).’

end

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin: It is an incredible victory for the US that he was re-elected & we must celebrate Senator Johnson & support & reward him! He has been on the front; CONGRATULATIONS!

I was privileged and humbled to be invited to the Senate with Dr. McCullough, Dr. Risch, Dr. Marik etc. to sit with Senator Johnson and what an honor it was; we discussed COVID and reopening of US

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 11
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

IMO, one of the greatest American patriots and what is startling after you talk with him is how on top of the science he is! How much he really wants to help Americans and humanity. So humbled to know him!

4 of 4,522

Print allIn new windowFwd: UK Parliament debate (November 9th 2022) on COVID vaccines as to effectiveness and safety and this debate is eye o…InboxMilan Sabioncello12:00 AM (8 hours ago)to me———- Forwarded message ———
From: Dr. Paul Alexander from Alexander COVID News<palexander@substack.com>
Date: Fri, Nov 11, 2022 at 4:16 PM
Subject: UK Parliament debate (November 9th 2022) on COVID vaccines as to effectiveness and safety and this debate is eye o…
To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>
Open in app or onlineUK Parliament debate (November 9th 2022) on COVID vaccines as to effectiveness and safety and this debate is eye opening and you should listen; Dr. John Campbell’s video sharingUK Parliament vaccine debateDR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 11 SAVE▷  LISTEN SOURCE:

VACCINE IMPACT

Big Tech Crash! Twitter Near Bankruptcy, Amazon First Company to Lose $1 TRILLION, Facebook Fires 11,000 Employees

November 11, 2022 12:53 pm

I don’t think the technocrats will be developing any “transhumans” anytime soon. On Wednesday this week, Amazon.com became the first publicly traded company in history to lose $1 trillion in market valuation. And then yesterday afternoon, Elon Musk told Twitter employees at an “all-hands meeting” that the company is losing so much money that “bankruptcy is not out of the question.” All of this happened after the great cryptocurrency collapse of Tuesday, when the equivalent of a “bank run” happened when crypto exchange FTX saw $6 billion of withdrawals in a 72-hour span, resulting in them stopping the process of withdrawals. The other Big Tech news on Tuesday was that Facebook parent company Meta announced it is slashing more than 11,000 jobs, reducing its workforce by about 13 percent. This follows news that we reported about 2 weeks ago that the Department of Justice has started a probe into Tesla over their claims of having a “self-driving car.” At about the same time this news was reported, Ford and Volkswagen announced that they were halting further investments into AI self-driving vehicles, forcing Argo AI, an AV technology startup founded by Uber and Google veterans, to shut down. The Big Technology Crash of 2022 has started, and it will probably make the Dot-com stock market crash of 2001 look like a walk in the park when this crash hits bottom.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

Australian government says vaccine risk too high for people under 30 – The Counter Signal

Robert Hryniak2:26 PM (58 minutes ago)
to

Common sense prevails

end

Activating the Enemy Within: COVID Jabs Might Reactivate Virus and Diseases in Your Body

Robert Hryniak2:37 PM (48 minutes ago)
to Harvey

https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/activating-the-enemy-within-the-covid-jabs-might-reactivate-virus-and-diseases-in-your-body_4858112.html

Cheers
Robert

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Michael Every on the day’s most important events:

“Lehman > Bankman > Jail, Man”

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 01:05 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Jurassic Poo-ark

This week starts as last week ended, with US election month (because that’s what it now is) confirming the Democrats keep the Senate but narrowly lose the House, while markets grapple with FTX taking us down the meme path of Lehman > Bankman > jailman.

After all, the firm was allegedly using client deposits as a piggy bank to be traded by its Alameda Research arm. And not very well. As someone tweeted “It’s a real mystery how a company run by such a seasoned CEO could go bust” alongside the screenshot headline ‘CEO of Alameda Research is a 28-Year-Old Harry Potter Fan’, and a picture of someone who looks like they live at Hogwarts. Below are clips of her being interviewed in which she states she uses “elementary school math” to do her risk analysis, and cannot remember losing money trading. The risk of this kind of mess was always as obvious as the vast pile of dinosaur droppings in Jurassic Park to those of us who were called dinosaurs by the ones choosing to jump into it.

Honest appraisal and debate about crypto can now be held freely on Twitter – for as long as it is around. There, we’ve just seen a series of corporate imposters offer free insulin, to stop selling weapons, or pledge to be the world’s largest plastic polluter for the fifth year in a row. That’s what happens when you can buy accreditation for $8 a month while allowing free speech. Corporate advertisers are now embracing rival TikTok: the Chinese app that operates on wildly different principles there, harvests user data, and which Western hawks say is a national security threat needing to be banned. Go do that Jurassic doo-doo that you do so well.

The rest of the market is still showing a dinosaur-brained response to the weaker US CPI number last week. ‘Transitory’ trades are back with a bang: bond yields lower, except in Brazil, as post-election looser fiscal policy emerges(?), equities higher, while the dollar is trading like it’s 2009 when that fate is only befalling its crypto rivals.

To those who think looking at a Bloomberg screen is “understanding inflation”, note that there were some odd things in the October CPI report: energy prices going down when they actually went up; a drop in medical expenses that won’t be repeated; and a slump in used cars that hardly speaks to core services inflation continuing to head higher.

To those who think looking at a Bloomberg screen or the Fed-whispering of the Wall Street Journal counts as “understanding central banks”, note that loosening financial conditions like this is exactly the outcome that will risk Powell going 75bp in December, and having to continue to do even more. You push yields lower, he pushes rates higher. It’s not hard to grasp unless you were bullish FTX. To make that even clearer, Taylor, as in ‘The Taylor Rule’, just told a conference that ‘Fed May Need to Raise Rates to 6%’. Moreover, ‘Nickileaks’, as some are dubbing the WSJ Fed channel, who sometimes gets called by dovish Brainard, is now quoting the Fed’s Waller, who says of the October inflation number:

The market seemed to get waaaa-aaaay out in front…. I just cannot stress this is one data point…. We’ve still got a ways to go.” On the loosening of financial conditions that followed Thursday’s market reaction: “This is exactly the situation we had gotten into in July… a loosening of financial conditions that we were trying not to do.” Waller sees 7.7% y-o-y CPI inflation as “enormous,” and if inflation expectations were to become unanchored, you wouldn’t see it happening with a lot of advanced notice in the data: “You don’t pop a balloon slowly. Once it goes, it goes.” If you use a Taylor-type policy rule, short-term interest rates aren’t that high: “We’re not that tight. Real rates are barely positive a year out.” The FOMC statement in November was designed to signal a potential steep down to 50bp and “We knew the markets were going to jump for joy,” so Powell’s press conference was used to “drive the point home” that it’s the ultimate level for rates that matters. And that will only go up the more markets try to price for a pivot.

Yet there are more signals of pivots from China, which are inflationary. We just saw 20 measures that institutionalise Covid Zero further but take some of the edges off, and a further state bailout of the property sector. Of course, neither plan will work. Covid restrictions are just that; a property bailout needs consumers to absorb out of line prices and out of line supply, which is out of line with Common Prosperity. Yet the attempts suggest more inflation on the commodity side.

Meanwhile, promises to address income and wealth inequality, whispers of new tax units to target high income individuals, The Economist arguing ’Xi Jinping amends the Chinese Dream’, the Financial Times reporting ‘China’s elite seek safety abroad’, and Alibaba not reporting Singles Day sales (but some suggesting spending was -42% y-o-y), all lead to Bloomberg saying ‘Global Banks Are Quietly Cutting China Jobs as Big Bang Fizzles’. They add:

…a slump in deals and growing political tension force global banks to recalibrate their plans to conquer the $56 trillion financial market. In public, executives say they’re in for the long-haul, but behind the scenes banks… have jettisoned China-focused investment bankers. Some global banks expect to cut more next year and are prepared for major staff exits as bonuses vanish. Doubts are growing over whether China will ever become the deal and fee machine once envisaged. “It’s clear China can switch direction and crack down quickly as has been shown in many industries in recent years,” said Christopher Marquis, Sinyi professor of Chinese management at Cambridge Judge Business School and author of ‘Mao and Markets.’ “Particularly banking is tied to general national security, which has really been shown in recent years to be the dominant logic of Xi, above and beyond economic growth.”

Nothing that anyone could have noticed in advance, of course. (As an aside, I would suggest fleeing rich Chinese may avoid the UK, where the rich are now to be soaked with de facto tax hikes along with the middle class, rather than saturated with tax cuts, as austerity is embraced all over again into the face of a deep recession – and openly sold as necessary ‘because markets demand it’. Yes, this will end as well as you think it will.)

Against this kind of backdrop, today will see Biden and Xi meet at the G20 in Bali in an attempt to determine where their respective ‘red lines’ are drawn, according to the former – in short, an attempt at saying “C’mon, Man!” to settle things.

Those wanting to see détente, for example the authors of ‘How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World’, suggest the “existing, Western-oriented approach [to address] the many forces governing international power relations” is “no longer adequate” and another order that “accommodates non-Western powers and tolerate greater diversity” should be built. (Because the US is all about diversity, right?) The authors propose achieving a more stable multipolar world order is “not as hard as it might sound” if all adhere to “a simple, 4-part framework to guide relations among major powers.”

  1. Agreeing on prohibited actions, or “norms that are already widely accepted by the US, China, and other major powers“, to set “boundaries to acceptable actions“;
  2. Pushing for “actions in which states stand to benefit by altering their own behaviour in exchange for similar concessions by others“, like “bilateral trade accords and arms control agreements“;
  3. States are “free to take independent actions to advance specific national goals, consistent with the principle of sovereignty but subject to any previously agreed-on prohibitions.” On matters of national security, the framework “dictates that such actions must be well calibrated [and] proportional to the security threat at hand and not designed to damage or punish a rival.“; and
  4. States should collaborate on “issues in which effective action requires the involvement of multiple states“, like climate change or pandemics.

Et voilà – peace for our time! John Kerry and Henry Kissinger are already doing cartwheels in anticipation.

So will markets if they get the slightest sniff of this happening. Which will of course be inflationary. And loosen financial conditions. And set the Fed off on more aggressive hikes that destabilise the emerging new détente. Unless part of that détente is the Fed stepping back from either fighting inflation, or its global hegemony – in which case it won’t be happening voluntarily in Bali.

Ironically, one of the above authors is Dani Rodrik, who built on the ‘impossible trilemma’ of an open capital account, exchange rate stability, and independent monetary policy, which explains why our global Bretton Woods 2 blew up, with his ‘Globalization Paradox’ that it is impossible to attain economic hyperglobalisation, national sovereignty, and democracy simultaneously because only two of these things can be achieved at one time – which explains why hyperglobalisation is blowing up. He is now pushing for bilateral trade deals and climate agreements that have trade components attached (as the EU have noticed) as if this resolves problems he points out.

Indeed, the framework above, while laudable, makes as much real world sense as the often-heard foreign policy critique that “If only you agreed with me, there would be no disagreement!” It’s a well-intentioned milquetoast reiteration of centuries of international relations theories going back to Westphalia – when we are in an age of potential West failure. It arguably doesn’t capture the political reality of: war in Ukraine, as Russia retreats from Kherson, but Pepe Escobaw-Haw claims the next step is a sweeping advance to Odesa; street protests in Moscow calling for the use of nuclear weapons(!); US Treasury Secretary Yellen saying US sanctions will stay on Russia whatever happens; the impossibility of the US doing a sudden U-turn on its national security strategy or controls on Chinese access to high-end semiconductors; or the fundamental precepts of Marxist-Leninist theory that global investment banks won’t read but are now belatedly recognising.

There is also the fat tail-risk of a Biden-Xi meeting that goes as badly as the recent US-China one in Alaska. After all, Taiwan is a topic of conversation.

To conclude, the simple image to take away today is that of a Jurassic pile called FTX and crypto; that market cheer at last week’s CPI will ironically lead to them falling face first into it a similar pile instead; and that the geopolitical backdrop is an even larger pile, and yet where détente only raises the risks of more inflation, and so more face-first falls.

END

7.OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0291 DOWN    0.0038 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED

USA/ YEN 140.28  UP  1.519 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1786 UP   0.0053

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.89 PTS OR 0.13% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 294.05 POINTS OR  1.70% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.00%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 294.05 PTS OR 1.70%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.89 PTS OR 0.13%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.00% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 300.10 OR  1.0%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1758.50

silver:$21.50

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.93 UP .77 POINTS from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.14% UP 3  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.236% UP 0AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%// UP 16 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.16  UP 13   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.1490%  DOWN 15 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0344  UP  .0016   or 16 basis points//

USA/Japan: 139.89 UP 1.124 OR YEN DOWN 78 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1773 UP .0041 OR  41 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar  DOWN .0052 OR 52 BASIS pts  to 1.3295

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP) AT 7.0740

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.0411

TURKISH LIRA:  18.61  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.236

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.878% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.068  UP 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.38 UP .43 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 67.13 PTS OR  0.92%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 88.44 POINTS OR 0.62%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 14.55PTS OR 0.22% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 68.40 OR  0.84%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 141.52 PTS OR  0.58%

WTI Oil price 85.32 12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.63   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   DOWN TO:  60.55// ROUBLE UP 0  AND 2/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1490

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.38

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0344 UP .0016    OR  16  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1773 UP  .0041 or  41 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.380% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 139.89     UP 1.124//YEN DOWN 112 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3293 UP 0.0052  (CDN dollar, DOWN 52 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 85,32

Brent OIL:  92.63

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 3.878%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 4.068%

USA dollar index:106.38 U[ 43 POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.61

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.55  UP 0 AND  1/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 211.16 PTS OR 0.63 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 116.07 PTS OR 0.98%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.75 UP 1.23 PTS (5.46)%

GLD: $164.92 UP 0.37 OR 0.22%

SLV/ $20.24  UP $0.29 OR 1.45%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Technical Rally Runs Out Of Gas Despite Dovish Drawl From Fed’s #2

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 04:02 PM

Over the weekend, we said that with earnings season over, with the lower than expected CPI print in the rearview mirror, and with 4 weeks to go until the next FOMC where just a payrolls report (which may well be the first negative print since the wu-flu) looms, risk has collapsed, and as the following chart from Piper Sandler’s Danny Kirsch shows, the 1-week stradle in the SPX has been slashed in half, and now anticipates just over 2.1% in price movement over the next week, the lowest in almost three months.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1592248049069613057&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ftechnical-rally-runs-out-gas-despite-dovish-drawl-feds-2&partner=tweetdeck&sessionId=a0d0fa13cfa56ad73c2d447e15d62367b2bb6c41&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=a3525f077c700%3A1667415560940&width=550px

So with fundamentals now largely irrelevant for the next several weeks, what are traders to do? Why listen to Fed speakers, even if they contradict each other as today’s price action demonstrated so amply when first Fed Governor Christopher Waller spooked markets late on Sunday with his hawkish take that policymakers had “a ways to go” before ending interest-rate hikes, before his superior, the Fed’s #2 and vice chair, Lael Brainard, took the mic and whispered soothing words of dovishness, which immediately stopped the selling and sparked a rally that sent the S&P not only above 4,000 but to the highest level in the past two months, before stocks lost steam in the last hour of trading…

… and the Dow Jones pulled back as it was just shy, or less than 2%, from entering a new bull market from the October lows.

Looking beneath the surface, it was another day where energy outperformed…

… while most other sectors lagged.

Elsewhere, after a record two-day surge in Goldman’s most shorted basket, today’s the most shorted names dropped…

… with low-momentum stocks suffering a similar fate, and undoing some of their striking gains from last week.

On the other side of the trade, the chart below shows that high-momentum L/S funds suffered their 2nd worst 2-Day drop in the past 20 years according to Morgan Stanley.

Turning to other asset classes, after plunging last week, and being closed on Friday for Veteran’s day, cash Treasuries went nowhere on Monday …

… as did the dollar which was flat after suffering one of the biggest 2-day drops on record last week.

Finally, here is a chart of the one asset class that everyone is looking at and which prompted the last hour selling: namely cryptos, which were hammered to session lows just minutes before stocks were also hit, and while it remains unclear what prompted the selling – rumor of another exchange run, rumor of another blow up, rumor, rumor, rumor – it is unmistakable that any time cryptos sneeze (and plunge) they drag the rest of the financial world with them.

END

USA ELECTION RESULTS:

EARLY MORNING TRADING

ii) USA DATA

END

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

Big story!!

Amazon Plans To Cut 10,000 Employees

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 11:06 AM

Over the past month, technology companies have laid off tens of thousands of employees.

According to a new report via NYTimes this morning, Amazon could add to the count this week as approximately 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs will be slashed. 

*Developing 

end

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS///TRUCKING PROBLEMS///INFLATION WATCH

US NatGas Tumbles On Bloomberg Report That Freeport LNG May Extend Plant Outage

MONDAY, NOV 14, 2022 – 01:36 PM

Update (1336ET):

Now Bloomberg reports Freeport LNG told customers that outages at its Texas terminal, which has been closed since June and was scheduled to reopen by mid-November, could be delayed further. 

People with direct knowledge of the situation said LNG shipments for November and December are likely to be canceled as maintenance work continues on the liquefaction plant. Also, regulatory approvals could prolong the start date.

This comes as heating demand is set to surge across the Northern Hemisphere. The LNG export facility in Freeport, Texas, accounted for 15% of all US LNG exports, most of which were sent to Europe. 

Freeport said last week it was set to resume operations this month, though reliable timelines from the company have been hard to get, according to the people.  

Last Friday, US natural gas prices plunged after rumors circulated on social media about possible restart delays at Freeport. Then the company denied Twitter rumors late Friday which sent US Natgas prices higher early Monday to only plunge again, with now Bloomberg reporting possible restart delays. 

This is more bad news for Europe as the energy-stricken continent has to search elsewhere for LNG shipments. On the flip side, more NatGas will be injected into US storage ahead of winter. 

*  *  * 

Freeport LNG, a major liquefied natural gas exporter in Texas, rejected claims made on social media last Friday that its terminal would be closed for an extended period. 

US natural gas futures plunged as much as 7.4% on Friday as someone operating a Twitter account, identifying as a trader, said “cracked pipes” were discovered at the terminal, potentially delaying the company’s plans to restart exports by mid-month. The tweet was immediately deleted. 

“That speculation ratcheted up sharply Friday morning, when a Twitter account, @Lithium_Plays, made several unconfirmed statements regarding Freeport that were widely shared by other Twitter accounts, including a top, so-called energy Twitter influencer, an oil analyst for a major international bank whose account has 64,000 followers. But those tweets by @Lithium_Plays were then quickly deleted. 

Shortly thereafter, another account, @rr9b250, Tweeted a screenshot that seemed to look like it came directly from Freeport LNG, as it was on Freeport LNG letterhead with the same logo colors that one sees on Freeport’s official website. The statement ended with “Sincerely, Freeport LNG Public Relations.”” –Market Watch

After US NatGas futures settled, Freeport released a statement Friday evening, rejecting such claims calling it fake news:

“Any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate, official public information from Freeport LNG,” the company said in a statement. 

On Monday morning, US natural gas futures jumped more than 5.5% to as high as $6.25/mmbtu on Freeport dismissing reopening claims. 

The Texas terminal has been shuttered since June due to an explosion, with a reopening timeframe around mid-November. Any such reopening would boost NatGas prices because the liquefaction plant serves as a major export facility, serving European customers. 

It seems like traders have an issue verifying market-sensitive information on social media… 

END

SWAMP STORIES

Texas Governor Abbot has just sent his 300th bus of immigrants to Democrat run cities/state

(Roberts/EpochTimes)

Texas Gov. Abbott Says 300th Bus Of Immigrants Has Been Sent To Democrat-Run State

SATURDAY, NOV 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Texas has now sent around 300 buses of immigrants to predominantly Democrat-run areas of the country in an effort to deal with an influx of illegal aliens at the southern border.Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a news conference in Beaumont, Texas, on Oct. 17, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Gov. Greg Abbott announced the latest transportation of illegal immigrants to so-called “sanctuary” cities on Twitter on Nov. 11.

The 300th Texas bus of migrants just left for Chicago,” the Republican governor wrote. “As [President Joe] Biden does nothing, Texas will continue taking unprecedented action to relieve our overwhelmed border communities & secure the border.”

statement from Abbott’s office on Nov. 4 said that Texas has bused almost 8,300 illegal immigrants to Washington, D.C. since April, over 3,500 to New York City since Aug. 5, and more than 1,100 to Chicago since Aug. 31 as part of its effort to secure the border.

The governor’s office says the busing mission is “providing much-needed relief to our overwhelmed border communities.”

Abbott and other Republicans have criticized Biden’s open border policies for creating a crisis that has seen record-breaking numbers of illegal immigrants attempting to enter the United States.

Record Number of Arrests at Border

Roughly 4.9 million people have illegally crossed into the United States from Mexico since Biden took office in January 2021, according to a report released in August.

Meanwhile, more than 2.3 million illegal immigrants were arrested at the southern border during fiscal year 2022, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection published in September (pdf), the highest number ever recorded.

The uptick in illegal immigrants has also seen cartels bringing the deadly drug fentanyl across the border in record amounts.

However Democratic lawmakers have taken aim at Abbott’s busing program, and have accused Republicans of “human trafficking” the immigrants.

District of Columbia Attorney General Karl Racine has launched an investigation into whether Abbott and other GOP governors are misleading illegal immigrants into transporting them to places like Washington, Chicago, and New York.

According to a report by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune, Racine said that his investigators interviewed immigrants who “talked persuasively about being misled, with talk about promised services” by trip organizers before boarding buses to other states. Racine did not provide further information about the probe.

Read more here…

KING REPORT

The King Report November 14, 2022 Issue 6886Independent View of the News
China Eases Quarantine, Ends Flight Bans in Covid Zero ShiftMove is biggest pullback in strict Covid Zero playbook yetChinese assets rose on news as investors hope for reopeningChina reduced the amount of time travelers and close contacts of virus cases must spend in quarantine, and pulled back on testing…
    One of the most notable shifts will see the time travelers into China are required to spend in quarantine cut to five days in a hotel or government facility, followed by three days confined to home, according to a National Health Commission statement Friday. The current rules require 10 days quarantine in total, with a week in a hotel then three days at home…
    The fact that the changes come at a time when Covid cases nationwide have surged to a six-month high — with major outbreaks in Guangzhou and Beijing — reflects an unmistakable change in President Xi Jinping’s zero-tolerance stance…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-eases-quarantine-rules-flight-bans-in-covid-zero-pivot-1.1844943
 
Chinese stocks soared; commodities and ESZs rallied on China’s reopening.
 
@GordonJohnson19: What if I told you the CPI surprise yesterday was partially due to a periodic adjustment, that won’t be reflected in the Fed-favored “core PCE” that comes out right ahead of the Dec. Fed meeting? Well, that’s JUST what happened. That is, the CPI for health insurance, which accounts for 0.9% of overall CPI and 1.1% of core CPI), due to a “periodic adjustment”, PLUNGED -4.0% Oct.-to-Sep., or an aggregate +6.1% SWING from Sep’s +2.1% figure. And, this was BY FAR, the largest MoM fall in the BLS data going all the way back to 2005.
   We all know HEALTH CARE COSTS DIDN’T MAGICALLY COLLAPSE IN OCT. from SEP.! In fact, had health care costs stayed constant, Oct. CPI would have been ~5bps HIGHER vs. Sep. (i.e., 6.1% swing * 0.9% of total CPI = 5bps impact to Oct. CPI, offsetting some of the 20bps surprise)…
   Question you must ask yourself is: “Does the Fed not know all of this already, and fear the coming re-inflation of the energy space given the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (“SPR”) drawn-down will likely end soon given the elections are OVER”? Hmmmm.  https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1591062537264848896
 
WSJ: Health-Insurance Inflation Is Poised to Drop Sharply – The subindex of the consumer-price index is about to turn from a driver of inflation into a deflationary drag
    The Labor Department bases the price of health insurance in large part on health-insurer profits, which are reported with a lag of about 10 months. Thus, data in the October 2022 CPI reflect what happened in 2021…Moreover, the methodological quirk only affects the CPI. While that is closely watched by investors, the media and consumers, the Federal Reserve officially bases its 2% inflation target on the Commerce Department’s separate personal-consumption expenditure price index…
   “It feels like we’re likely to see higher medical services inflation in 2023 than we have in the last few years,” said Mr. Sharif. “The magnitude of how much higher it is, we just don’t know yet—and that is going to determine how much of the health insurance drag is going to get offset.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-insurance-inflation-is-poised-to-drop-sharply-11666655474
 
Nov. U of Michigan Sentiment: 54.7, exp. 59.5, prior 59.9; Current Conditions 57.8, exp. 62.8, prior 65.6; Expectations 52.7, exp. 55.5; prior 56.2; 1-year Inflation 5.1%, exp. 5.1% http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
    @amlivemon: ew…not a good number… Fed/Treasury can fake all the numbers you want but the street believes the economy is in the gutter
 
@MichaelMOTTCM: Reserve balances at the Fed have been stuck around $3 to $3.1 trillion for weeks, which means the S&P 500 likely stays stuck too. But the Treasury is likely to ramp up the TGA into year-end, which will drain reserves, and if reserve balances fall, stocks probably do too.
https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1591043294275911680
 
ESZs surged after China’s reopening reports.  They hit a peak of 3997.50 at 3:51 ET.  ESZs then decline to 3973.00 near 6 ET.  After a modest rally, ESZs and stocks went inert until they commenced a tumble at 9:10 ET.  Of course, traders bought the dip, creating a bottom at 19:41 ET.  ESZs and stocks then vacillated in a wide range until they spiked higher to 3989.75 at 10:23 ET.
 
ESZs and stocks then traded sideways until they broke down at 11:07 ET.  After bottoming near 11:30 ET, ESZs and stocks drifted higher into a Noon Balloon.  The rally accelerated when the afternoon arrived.  Traders played for the routine Friday afternoon rally that precedes expiration week.
 
The rally peaked with daily highs at 14:58 ET.  The S&P 500 Index hit 4001.48; sellers appeared.  After a 20-handle tumble, ESZs and stocks were forced higher to markup holdings for the weekend.  When the S&P 500 Index hit 3999.02 at 15:50 ET, sellers reappeared.  ESZs and stocks slid into the close.
 
The DJTA soared on Friday, on rapid buying of land transportation stocks.  Another delusion has arrived: China’s reopening means Chinese exports into the US will boom – even if the US moves into recession.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA surged on China’s reopening
 
Negative aspects of previous session
USZs sank as much as 1 2/32 even though the US cash bond market was closed
Industrial commodities rallied sharply
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will there be any more fallout from FTX’s bankruptcy?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3979.78
Previous session High/Low4001.48; 3944.82
 
Up to $2 billion in client money missing in crypto giant FTX collapse: reports https://trib.al/MoWTQKt
 
At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX – Reuters
In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a “backdoor” in FTX’s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software. They said the “backdoor” allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company’s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said. In his text message to Reuters, Bankman-Fried denied implementing a “backdoor”…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/exclusive-least-1-billion-client-funds-missing-failed-crypto-firm-ftx-sources-2022-11-12/
 
@SullyCNBC: FTX bankruptcy shows the company had 134 affiliates spread across the globe and may have liabilities of up to $50 billion. Enron had liabilities of $23 billion. FTX may be worse than Enron.
 
@johncardillo: Biden’s second biggest donor just collapsed in a $15 billion crypto Ponzi and no one in the trash corporate media is talking about the connection.
 
@alifarhat79: Jim Cramer: Elizabeth Holmes is the next Steve Jobs, April 2015
Jim Cramer: Sam Bankman-Fried is the next JP Morgan, September 2022
https://twitter.com/alifarhat79/status/1591025378143129601
 
Ukraine Partners With FTX, Everstake to Launch New Crypto Donation Website   March 14, 2022
https://www.aol.com/news/ukraine-partners-ftx-everstake-launch-171345958.html
 
Tens of Billions of US Dollars Were Transferred to Ukraine and then Using FTX Crypto Currency the Funds Were Laundered Back to Democrats in US (We see no evidence; it’s a theory.)
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/breaking-exclusive-tens-billions-transferred-ukraine-using-ftx-crypto-currency-laundered-back-democrats-us/
 
What we do know: Tens of billions of dollars of US aid go to Ukraine in 2022; Ukraine invests in FTX in 2022; FTX CEO/Founder is the 2nd largest Dem donor for the 2022 Elections.
 
@VivekGRamaswamy: In 2008, Goldman mastered the art of crony capitalism: pay up for government protection & get bailed out when you need it most. That’s why Goldman got bailed out while Lehman didn’t. Crypto-dude Sam Bankman-Fried just tried to play the same game by donating $30mm+ to Democrats.   https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1591093110033063936
 
@elonmusk: SBF (FTX CEO/Founder) was a major Dem donor, so no investigation
 
Disney to Begin Layoffs, Targeted Hiring Freeze and Limiting Travel
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/disney-to-begin-layoffs-targeted-hiring-freeze-and-limiting-travel/ar-AA140WlA
 
Anyone that has been around for a few economic cycles realizes that the recent spate of announce layoffs from large companies is a harbinger of recession.  They also will remember that many large companies will do the dirty deed near yearend so they can take nonrecurring charges, claim the demerits are associated with the terminations, which allows the obfuscation of earnings gimmicks.
 
@WesleyJMattox: Days like today (Thursday) don’t happen in bull markets and it is by no means a signal to pile into stocks. In 2000-2002, the Nasdaq had 14 up days of 6% or more, and you would have been wrong 14 times if you thought the bottom was in.  https://twitter.com/WesleyJMattox/status/1590818680614461440
 
@agnostoxxx: If you are Long, you are Fighting the Fed & $95bn /month of QT.  If you are Short, you are Fighting against Wall Street’s greed to ramp markets for their Xmas bonus. If you are in Cash, you are watching 2 groups of junkies exchanging blows until a real trade shows up.
 
UK’s Hunt (UK finance minister) says he has to raise taxes to fix economy
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-says-budget-plan-likely-show-recession-ahead-2022-11-12/
 
Biden Launches ‘Climate Gender Equity Fund’ To Advance ‘Women-Led Climate Solutions’
https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-launches-climate-gender-equity-fund-to-advance-women-led-climate-solutions
 
The Dems will keep control of the Senate and as voting counting continues ED+3, the odds of Dems stealing the House increase.  These are House districts that are still counting votes, not state-wide offices.
 
@kylenabecker: The Democrats want a cheat-fest every election? Fine. Let’s have a cheat-fest. Burn it all down. The elections are a farce already. Let’s have a real clownshow!  Maybe then the idiots will want election integrity. That’s the end game to put a stop to this nonsense every election.
 
@EndWokeness: Obama brags about Dems being “in charge of the [voting] machines” (2008 election).
“It helps in Ohio that we got Democrats in charge of the machines.”
https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1554291327105466371
 
AZ Sec of State GOP Candidate @AbrahamHamadeh: 72%+ of the votes on Election Day in person were Republican. When you have 30% of the tabulating machines failing, causing people to leave the lines and give up.  This is voter suppression targeting a political party.
 
@Peoples_Pundit: It really doesn’t matter whether it was intended or not, the result of the issues that arose on Election Day in Maricopa effected turnout and disproportionately hurt Republican candidates. Data by congressional district is VERY clear. REPs were far more likely to report issues.
 
@CariKelemen: Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in Nevada’s US senate race. Election security cameras go out for 8 hours. Yah dah, yah dah, yah dah… The Democrat wins.
 
Clark County accepted my signature on 6 mail ballot envelopes
I had 11 people send me a picture of their ballot envelope. I then wrote their name in my handwriting… six were accepted… When I did this experiment in 2020 with nine voters, eight had their ballots accepted… Signatures aren’t a unique identifier. They morph over time… To verify absentee ballots, Georgia requires a unique identifier, such as the last four digits of a driver’s license number… What this proves is that Nevada’s mail ballots remain vulnerable to fraud… https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/victor-joecks/victor-joecks-clark-county-accepted-my-signature-on-6-mail-ballot-envelopes-2674184/
 
@barnes_law: A smart Republican leader would win Georgia, then get Manchin to flip (which is his only chance to still be in the Senate in 2025). Then it’s a Republican Senate.
 
Today – The key questions: Is the manic short covering over?  Did traders get too long for the expected expiry week rally? The S&P 500 Index failed twice at 4000 on Friday. 
 
Instead of buying on Sunday night for the expected Monday and expiry week rallies, ESZs are -13.00 at 20:00 ET because Fed Governor Waller voiced displeasure with the stock market rally.
 
@NickTimiraos: Waller on the loosening of financial conditions that followed Thursday’s market reaction.  “This is exactly the situation we had gotten into in July.”  Back then, there was “a loosening of financial conditions that we were trying not to do.”  7.7% CPI inflation “is enormous.”
 
Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to CPI data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’
“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go.” Waller said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-waller-says-market-has-overreacted-to-consumer-inflation-data-weve-got-a-long-long-way-to-go-11668381864
 
After Powell’s idiotic we’re near a neutral rate remark generated a manic equity rally, Fed officials for weeks spoke very hawkish to walk back Powell’s ill-conceived remark.  Did Waller just commence a parade of Fed officials that will issue hawkish remarks in coming days?  Fed VCEO Brainard at 11:30 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3792; 100-day MA: 3905; 150-day MA: 3966; 200-day MA: 4081
DJIA 50-day MA: 30,983; 100-day MA: 31,571; 150-day MA: 31,928; 200-day MA: 32,541
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4522.12 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3865.80 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3724.29 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3865.80 triggers a sell signal
 
Twitter erupts over CBS’s ‘The Good Fight’ finale which has character accuse DeSantis of being sex offender’ – The character admitted to fabricating allegations to give Trump a boost in the 2024 polls
https://www.foxnews.com/media/twitter-erupts-cbs-good-fight-finale-character-accuse-desantis-sex-offender
 
@ElectionWiz: Trump goes after Gov. Youngkin (R-Virginia), saying his name sounds “Chinese.”
 
Trump: Young Kin (Now that’s an interesting take.  Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it?)  I Endorsed him, did a  very big Trump Rally for him telephonically, got MAGA to vote for him – or he couldn’t have come close to winning.  But he knows that, and admits it.  Besides, having a hard time with Dems in Virginia – But he’ll get it done.  https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1591058837574135809/photo/1
 
@charliespiering: This Trump comment happened shortly after Fox and Friends noted this morning that Youngkin “might be running” (for president in 2024)
 
@therecount: “true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage, and the voters have given us that very clear message… I could not support him.” —VA Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) comes out against Trump’s 2024 candidacy
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590782275968720897
 
@washoecounty (Nevada): We know that our election livestream cameras went dark overnight. We investigated what happened and how to prevent it happening again. Learn more: https://bit.ly/3NSyDWg
    @EndWokeness: The new numbers just released from Washoe were unexpectedly good for Democrats.  Must be a coincidence
     @Peoples_Pundit: Unfortunately, this country is headed for a horrible outcome. No self-governing society can suffer the strain to civil society that comes from loss of regime credibility.  Not even the United States of America.
 
@robbystarbuck: Wow. In Arizona they discovered that some Republican ballots that were supposed to be counted after the tabulators failed ended up mixed in with ballots that were already counted instead.
@KariLake put it best “Our elections are a circus being run by a bunch of clowns”
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1591220256995151872
 
Delayed Results Are Killing Americans’ Trust in Elections
Confidence in our nation’s elections is at an all-time low. Yet swing states with key races now routinely prolong counting for days even though polling strongly suggests that severely undermines the public’s trust in elections… https://thefederalist.com/2022/11/11/delayed-results-are-killing-americans-trust-in-elections/
 
@TomFitton: Remarkable silence and disinterest by Republican leadership over election administration debacles in Arizona and Nevada.
 
Is it a coincidence that a federal judge halted Biden’s unconstitutional student loan forgiveness scheme just two days after an election that had a surge in young voters (2-1 for Dems)?
 
Senate GOP call for leadership election to be postponed (McConnell is on the ropes!)
Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Mike Lee of Utah, and Rick Scott of Florida have circulated a letter calling on their colleagues to sign onto a postponement of the elections, which are slated for Wednesday. 
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-senate-gop-call-for-leadership-election-to-be-postponed
 
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed.  First, we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.
 
@HawleyMO: Exactly right. I don’t know why Senate GOP would hold a leadership vote for the next Congress before this election is finished. We have a runoff in #GASenate – are they saying that doesn’t matter? Don’t disenfranchise @HerschelWalker.
 
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: It makes no sense for Senate to have leadership elections before GA runoff.  We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a majority & Herschel Walker deserves a say in our leadership.
Critically, we need to hear a specific plan for the next 2 yrs. from any candidate for leadership.
 
@kylenabecker: If Mitch isn’t controlled opposition, he’s done the most convenient sabotaging of the GOP that the Democratic Party could ever hope for out of its Senate leader.
 
‘Fuming’ Trump threatened to pull endorsement in key race because candidate didn’t call him a ‘great’ president – According to the Times’ report, the former president called the GOP chair at midnight on a Sunday evening to complain about Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of Clark County, who was running for governor… https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-threat/
 
@bonchieredstate: The difference between Trump 2016 vs. Trump 2024 is that the old version actually managed to care about voters and policies. New Trump just cares about revenge. Everything he says and does signals it’s only about his ego. That’s not the “America First” agenda we were promised.
 
Inside GOP, calls grow for party chair to resign in wake of midterms
Republican officials want Ronna McDaniel to step down after multiple disappointing elections.
    “We did not have an early voting strategy,” the official said. “Voters can vote a month early, but we’re still asking our voters to vote on [Election Day].”  Anuzis agreed the party didn’t handle early absentee voting well but clarified that’s “not necessarily” McDaniel’s fault. He noted that Michigan, where all registered voters can submit an early absentee ballot, sent the ballots out over a month before Election Day, but the state GOP failed to follow up with calls or mailers to check that people actually voted…
    According to a new analysis by Bridge Michigan, absentee ballots made up roughly 40% of all votes in Michigan, and Democrats proved far more likely to vote absentee, giving them a big lead before Election Day.  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/inside-gop-calls-grow-party-chair-resign-wake-midterms
 
@NEWSMAX: “Mitch [McConnell] failed to make this a referendum on why Republicans were better than the Biden agenda and the Democrats,” said David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth https://t.co/ctckYzVT3T
 
@ColumbiaBugle: @emeriticus And Tucker Carlson Blast the GOP Leadership for Their Lack of Vision And for Sabotaging America First Candidates https://t.co/iSNImiC45L
 
Mitch McConnell Get Blasted – ‘We Didn’t Pick Up a Single Seat?’ – Jesse Watters
https://t.co/CLEN3BbVKw
 
Given what occurred in 2020, how could the GOP not have a mail-in vote strategy?!?!  This is abject malfeasance!  This is unconscionable!  DeSantis had a mail-in vote strategy!
Mitch McConnell Claims, ‘We All Agree the Most Important Thing Going on in the World Right Now Is the War in Ukraine’   May 10, 2022 (Polls Ukraine did not register as an issue in 2022!)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-claims-we-all-agree-the-most-important-thing-going-on-in-the-world-right-now-is-the-war-in-ukraine
 
Please recall that several pundits saw the GOP disaster coming and asserted that McConnell and his ilk would rather lose elections and retain establishment power than win due to a base that they detest.
 
@bonchieredstate: Again, if Masters hadn’t publicly trashed McConnell, he would have gotten it.  But he did, which meant, from the beginning, that MAGA had to step up and fund him. Instead, Trump gave more to David Perdue against Brian Kemp than Blake Masters. Trump didn’t care about winning.
 
@lukerosiak: Is it true that McConnell tanked Senate races by not funding candidates like Masters? McConnell spent HUGE everywhere but AZ. Masters had Thiel so his outside spending was pretty good at $53M vs $57M for his opponent. But he got only 46% of the vote… Real issue is PA became a massive money-suck because of Oz being unpopular minus Trump’s endorsement…
    Masters’ campaign was the worst among Trump endorsees in terms of raising their own funds. Theil backed out of a $10M investment… Trump has $70M in political funds in the bank. He could have made it so Masters had double the super PAC spending of his opponent.  Instead, he created a “joint fundraiser” with Masters that actually gave $99 to Trump for every $1 that went to Masters…
    Many Masters supporters who used this option (unaware that 99% went to Trump because that was hidden unless you hit a toggle) may have refrained from donating directly to Masters because they were under the belief that they’d already done their part…
https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1591605752216559616
    
@OTheophilus777: Replying to @lukerosiak: He’s doing the exact same thing with @HerschelWalker in the GA runoff… is this all for his legal defense?
 
@JacobRubashkin: Trump just sent out a fundraising email for Herschel Walker that says “Contribute ANY AMOUNT IMMEDIATELY to the Official Georgia Runoff Fundraising Goal and increase your impact by 1200%” and then auto-defaults to splitting your donation 90% to Trump and 10% to Herschel Walkerhttps://t.co/06oAKpBwx7
 
Daily Mail: Embattled Trump rips McConnell for GOP spending but doles out little of his own cash https://t.co/5uIcVkeaLL
 
@AnnCoulter, author of “In Trump We Trust”: To Trump: You had your chance, with a Republican House and Senate. You handed domestic policy to your son-in-law and Gary Cohn. You handed foreign policy to your son-in-law and a country that gave your son-in-law $2 billion. Shut the f— up, forever.
(Cohn is a life-long Dem and ex-GS CEO that reportedly forbade employees to contribute to Trump)
 
@bonchieredstate: Do you want the perfect example of how self-destructive Trump is? There is no path to the presidency without Florida and Georgia.  Even if you hate DeSantis and Kemp for dumb reasons, attacking them ensures a 2024 loss if Trump is the nominee.
 
@bonchieredstate: Joe Kent, who won his primary after Trump labeled his primary opponent a traitor, has lost WA-03, a R+13 district. Brilliant.  Kent was a registered Democrat for 10 years prior to 2020.
 
Trump Blames GOP for Senate Loss, Says Voters ‘Despise McConnell’s Wife’
“It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault. Spending money to defeat great Republican candidates instead of backing Blake Masters and others was a big mistake. Giving 4 Trillion Dollars to the Radical Left for the Green New Deal, not Infrastructure, was an even bigger mistake. He blew the Midterms, and everyone despises him and his otherwise lovely wife, Coco Chow!” posted Trump on Truth Social. (on Sunday)
https://www.thefirsttv.com/don-sounds-off-trump-blames-gop-for-senate-loss-says-voters-despise-mcconnells-wife/
 
The Trump-McConnell/Establishment feud killed the Red Wave in 2022.  Both should disappear!
@YouGovAmerica: More Republicans & Republican-leaning Independents now say they prefer DeSantis (42%) as their 2024 presidential nominee over Trump than say they prefer Trump to DeSantis (35%). In an October poll w/@YahooNews, Trump was preferred, 45% to 35%. https://today.yougov.com/topics/politic
 
GOP Sen. from MO Josh Hawley: The old party is dead. Time to bury it. Build something new.
 
Vanity Fair: Jared and Ivanka Swear They Have No Intention of Helping Reelect Trump, So Please Invite Them to the Met Gala Now – The former first daughter and son-in-law seem to believe distancing themselves from the ex-president will boost their image…they’d like to be accepted by important people and beloved by little ones, which is why they’ve spent their time in relative exile trying to convince the world that they want nothing to do with Donald Trump…
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/11/jared-kushner-ivanka-trump-donald-trump-2024?s=02
 
@EricMMatheny: Imagine if the court had struck down Biden’s unconstitutional and unilateral student loan forgiveness before early voting; before Election Day. Lots of young folks sent in ballots and went to the polls under the guise that their student debt was going to be forgiven.
 
@bennyjohnson: The teleprompter is UNDEFEATED against Joe Biden.
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1591093753707925504
 
@greg_price11: Biden says that Ketanji Brown Jackson “is probably the smartest person on the Supreme Court.”   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1590810482981875712
 
What an insult!  The Big Guy called Hunter the smartest guy he knows!
 
Wrong country, Joe! Biden thanks the Prime Minister of COLOMBIA for hosting the ASEAN summit in Cambodia in his latest slip of the mind
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11420031/Biden-kicks-Cambodia-summit-referring-head-COLOMBIA-c.html
 
Babylon Bee: Fetterman Realizes American Dream of Living with Parents Til You’re 50 and Then Getting a Government Job https://t.co/0SersFHT
 
Après moi, le deluge.” – Louis XV   Fourteen years after Louis’s death, the French Revolution occurred.  Readers might recall that a few years ago, we stated, “après Trump, le deluge.”
 
US elections serve as a safety valve and as firewalls against chaos and violence.  Once a critical mass of one party feels that elections are fraudulent, there is no telling how people will react.
 
@CitizenFreePres: Chappelle on why Trump is “so loved” in Ohio (When debate moderator in 2016 asked Trump for evidence that the ‘system was rigged’, Trump responded that he exploited the rigged system.)
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1591780419418324993
 


 

GREG HUNTER REPORT/INTERVIEWING MICHAEL SNYDER

We Are in End Times – Michael Snyder

By Greg Hunter On November 12, 2022 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post) 

Journalist and popular author Michael Snyder says in his new book we are in “End Times.”  Few Christians would disagree.  So, where are we and what are we facing?  Snyder explains, “I believe we are living at the very end of a timeline.  I believe Jesus is coming back soon. . . .The Bible describes the End Times, the time just before Jesus comes back, as the most chaotic in all of human history.  In fact, Jesus told us there has never been a time like this before, and there will never be a time like this again.  Things are eventually going to get so bad that it is going to be the worst times in all of human history.  I also believe it will be the best time for the people of God.  There is no other time in human history that I would have rather lived than right now. . . .God put you here, if you are watching, here for a reason.  God put you here with a purpose and a destiny and a job for your to do.  If you understand that, you will be really excited about the future, even though things will be chaotic and wild. . . . Jesus said the time just before his return there would be wars and rumors of wars.  A couple of years ago, I came on your program and wrote a book and said there is going to be a war with Russia.  At the time, nobody was thinking about a war with Russia.  People told me, Michael you are crazy.  Of course, now we have a war with Russia. . . . We are getting dangerously close to a nuclear conflict.”

Snyder also mentions war with China, war between North and South Korea and war between Iran and Israel that are all boiling up right now, all at the same time.

Snyder also brings up starvation and famines talked about in the Bible that also point to “End Times.”  Snyder explains, “There have been droughts in different areas in the past.  We are seeing tremendous droughts affecting agricultural production all over the northern hemisphere.  Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the bread basket of the world, we have seen agricultural products restricted because of war with Russia.  We have this perfect storm for agricultural production.  Meanwhile, we have an energy crisis that is worse than any of us have ever seen.  It continues to get worse.  The price of natural gas has gone haywire because of this war between Russia and NATO.  Now, two thirds of all fertilizer production have already been shut down in Europe because the price of natural gas, and that is going to affect agricultural production next year. People need to realize that if we could not use fertilizer at all, we could not feed about half the world.  Half the world would instantly starve if there was no fertilizer used.  So, what we are facing is big-time global food shortages in 2023. . . . It’s going to be even worse even beyond that.  These things are going to intensify.”

On the economy, Snyder thinks the Fed will keep raising rates, and the real estate market will tank even further along with the economy.  Snyder predicts, “I don’t think the so-called pivot is close. . . . I think they are going to keep raising rates for now, and that is really bad news for real estate and for the economy because the economy is already being crushed right now.  We are already seeing a massive slowdown all over the economy. . . .I think the Federal Reserve is determined to get inflation down, but eventually they will be forced to pivot sometime in 2023.”

Snyder also says, “Basically, we are facing the collapse of everything.  We are already seeing mass extinctions all over the globe.  One study showed 32,000 species has declined by 69% over the last 50 years.  So, we are already seeing mass extinctions, and they are going to accelerate in the years ahead.  Natural disasters, wars and rumors of wars, pestilences and all the things we have been talking about are going to combine and create this perfect storm.  People will see their lives crumble.  Their lives, careers, what they planned for their future, their lives are going to crumble.  People are going to plunge into depression and despair, and they are going to see no hope.  Society will melt down all around them, and they won’t see any hope for the future.  If you want hope for the future, you need God.  You need the Lord Jesus Christ, not just to get you through what we are facing . . . but what we have in the end.  I read the book, and we win in the end.  We get to be with Jesus for all of eternity, and that is a really long time.  That is the most important thing beyond physical preparation.”

In closing, Snyder says, “Jesus warned us about all these things in advance so we wouldn’t be afraid.  We can look forward with courage.  Yes, bad things will happen, but it is when times are the darkest the greatest heroes are needed.  In the years that are coming, you have the chance to be a light and make a difference.  If you wanted to live in Biblical times, you are going to have that opportunity.  You are going to have a chance to do a tremendous amount of good in this world if you understand what is happening and be prepared in advance if you take advantage of this, that you rise up and be the people God created you to be.”

There is much more in the 43-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Michael Snyder, author of the new book “End Times.” 

(https://usawatchdog.com/we-are-in-end-times-michael-snyder/)

After the Interview:

Besides TheEconomicCollapseblog.com, Michael Snyder has another free website:  TheMostImportantNews.com.

Michael Snyder has also published six popular books. The latest is called “End Times” You can find all of Michael Snyder’s books by clicking here.

This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

Just a little note telling you that I am going to take a 3 week break

from writing my blogs, starting on the 16th of November.. I will write some of the major events but it will not be in detail

i am a little burnt out so i am taking a rest. Just a little note telling you that I am going to take a 3 week break

from writing my blogs, starting on the 17th of November.. I will write some of the major events but it will not be in detail

i am a little burnt out so i am taking a rest. 

SEE YOU TOMORROW.

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