JAN 10//GOLD CLOSED UP $1.00 TO $1874.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 21 CENTS AS THE BANKERS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO MAINTAIN THEIR SHACKLES ON THESE TWO KEY PRECIOUS METALS//PLATINUM IS DOWN $8.40 TO $1081.15/PALLADIUM IS DOWN ANOTHER $13.20 TO $1776.35 AND THUS THE RATIO OF PRICE ON PLATINUM/PALLADIUM CONTINUES TO RISE//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER: MUST READS TODAY/VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//MORE ON GOTTLIEB’S CENSORSHIP ON THE PFIZER VACCINE//MUST READS: TED BUTLER AND EGON VON GREYERZ//USA DATA: CREDIT CARD DEBT HITS ALL TIME HIGHS//INTERESTING CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS FOUND IN BIDEN’S PENNSYLVANIA SANCTUARY (THESE DOCUMENTS WERE FROM HIS TENURE AS VICE PRESIDENT AND HE CANNOT DECLASSIFY THEM)//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

Jan 10 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $1.00 at $1874,00

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.21  to $23.54

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1872.80

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.67

Bitcoin morning price:, 17,238 UP 4 DOLLARS   

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $17,454 UP  220  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1081.15 DOWN $8.40

Palladium price; closing 1776.35 DOWN $13.20

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2519.75 UP $14.50 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1545.08 UP 9.85 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1744,84 UP 5.88  euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,872.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/09/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/11/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
661 C JP MORGAN 7
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
880 C CITIGROUP 5


TOTAL: 15 15

JPM received 1/19 contracts  (stopped)

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   15 NOTICES FOR 1500  OZ  or  0.0466 TONNES

total notices so far: 758 contracts for 75800 oz (2.3576 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  816 for 4,080,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $1.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 915/33 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.65 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 352 CONTRACTS TO 132,893 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  FOR THE PAST WEEK, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.09 BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 475 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD A ZERO OZ OF AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS).  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPEC SHORTS AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG SCENARIO.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP  OF 5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.175 MILLION OZ //  V)   GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –50

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 3133 contracts:   OR 15.665  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (522 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 15.665 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   15.665 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 352 DESPITE OUR   $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 50 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 /  //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.150 MILLION OZ + EFR 2.5 MILLION = 6.675 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 402 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.01 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S RISE. 

 WE HAD  1  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  5,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 13,102  CONTRACTS  TO 476,332 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 629  CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (13,102 CONTRACTS) CAME WITH OUR STRONG  $8.60 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 25 CONTRACTS OR 2500 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 2.5069 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $8.60 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 14,876 OI CONTRACTS (46.277 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1774 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 476,352

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,876 CONTRACTS  WITH 13,102 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1774 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,876 CONTRACTS OR 46.27 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1774 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (13,102) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 14,876 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2500 OZ /NEW STANDING 2.5069 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4)   VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

16,337  CONTRACTS OR 1,633,700 OZ OR 48,227 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2722 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:48.227   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  48.227/3550 x 100% TONNES  1,35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    48.227 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 352 CONTRACTS OI TO  132,893 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 50 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  50 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 50 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 352  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 50 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 402 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.01 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 56.85 PTS OR 0.27%     /The Nikkei closed UP 201/71 PTS OR .78%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7814//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7979//    /Oil DOWN TO 75.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.88   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,102 CONTRACTS UP TO 476,352 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.60

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1774 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 1774 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1774   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED  TOTAL OF 14,876 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1774 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 13,102 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN  IN PRICE OF $8.60. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG AS THEIR FOLLY INTO SHORTING HAS ENDED.

// WE HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (2.5069)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

JAN/2023: 2.5069 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $8.60)  //// AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 14,876 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 48.227 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2500 oz  OR .0777 TONNES…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $8.60.  

WE HAD – 629 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14,876 CONTRACTS OR 1,487,600 OZ OR 46.277 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 210,618// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  265,660/  fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 10//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 883.065 oz
Brinks

 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
117,318.999  oz
Malca
3649 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today15 notice(s)
1500 OZ
0.0466 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  48 contracts 
  4800 oz
0.1493 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 758  notices
75800
2.3576 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i)Into Brinks:  883.065 oz

total deposits: 883,065 oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Malca:  883.065 oz)

Total withdrawals: 883.065 oz

total in tonnes: 0.027467  tonnes

Adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 63 contracts having GAINED 6  contracts

We had 19 notices served on Monday, so we gained 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump) 

February lost  20,189  contacts  to 340,883

March gained 29 contracts to stand at 548.

April gained 30,066 contracts up to 96,206.

We had 19  notice(s) filed today for 1900 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  15  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 7  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (758 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN. 63 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  15 x 100 oz per contract equals 80,600 OZ  OR 2.5069 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (758 x 100 oz+   (63 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (15} x 100 oz} which equals 80,600 oz standing OR 2.5069 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  2.5069 TONNES  (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,970,762.034 OZ   61.298 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,996,504.987 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:11,171,497.6431 OZ     (347,46 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,825,007.741 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,200,735 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 286,18 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 10/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory636,400.78 oz
CNT
HSBC
JPM





























 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory42,318.492 oz
Delaware














 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)19 contracts 
(95,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)816 contracts
 (4,080,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i)Delaware:  42,318.492 oz

Total deposits:  42,318.492 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 152.578 million oz/298.840 million =51.070% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of CNT:  440,461.040 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 2089.200oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 193,850.540 oz

Total withdrawals; 636,400.78 oz

adjustments: 3 dealer to customer

Brinks  310,593.42 oz

ii) Delaware:  5105.86 oz

iii) JPMorgan 870,193.280 oz

total adjustment dealer to customer: 1,175,680.840 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 298.840 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 20  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 3 NOTICES

FILED ON MONDAY SO  WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT(S) OR 5,000 OZ WERE  QUEUE JUMPED BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE. 

FEB> LOST 12 CONTRACTS TO 218 CONTRACTS

March LOST 764 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,056 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for  5,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  43,672//fair  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 51,600 contracts (  good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 816 x  5,000 oz = 4,080,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(20) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 816 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (20 – number of notices served upon today (1) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.150 million oz  + 2.5 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:48,685// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,160 contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00:  BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 915.33  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 509.65 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

 

“The Fed Should Be Irrelevant” – Peter Schiff Warns It’s “Not How Capitalism Is Supposed To Work”

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 03:25 PM

Authored by Liam Cosgrove via The Epoch Times,

Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, is famous for his bearish takes. A falling stock market, a deep recession, and a sovereign debt crisis were among his predictions in the past.

As the first trading week in January came to a close, The Epoch Times sat down with  Schiff to get his outlook for the new year. According to the libertarian economist, the outlook is grim and driven by two factors: inflation and the Federal Reserve.

“The last couple of times the Fed was able to orchestrate a pivot, it did it when inflation was 2 percent or less,” he told The Epoch Times. “Pivot” refers to the moment when the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates and begins cutting them again, historically done in response to severe financial stress.

Since the mid-1980s, monetary-easing cycles have been in low-inflation environments. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) still above 7 percent, what happens if the Fed pivots now?

”They are throwing gasoline on the fire,” Schiff warned.

“High inflation gets even higher, and in that environment, I don’t see financial assets as a group doing well.”

“I think bonds get killed.”

In addition, Schiff sees companies with high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios that do not turn a profit—typically referred to as growth stocks—will not be able to keep up with inflation, given their lack of pricing power.

“That’s important in an inflationary environment. You have to be able to raise your prices without destroying your sales.”

This could spell bad news for many unprofitable tech companies that rely on advertising revenue, because many advertisers will likely slash marketing budgets in the coming recession, Schiff said. Investors may shift their focus to less flashy companies with a steady revenue stream.

“If money is losing value much faster than 2 percent a year, you don’t want to wait 10–20 years to get your money,” he said.

“It’s not companies that are promising earnings in the future. It’s companies that have earnings right now.”

Like Warren Buffett, Schiff considers himself a value investor, meaning he invests in companies with a proven track record of profitability and a robust customer base. High inflation will wear down the consumers’ discretionary income, making it difficult for many businesses to maintain revenue.

“If your customers are spending a lot more money on food, on energy, on insurance, on rent, on taxes, and they have nothing left over, then it doesn’t even matter if you cut your prices. You don’t have any customers.”

Schiff laid the blame for the economic doom to come at the doorstep of the Federal Reserve. By distorting financial markets and the value of money, “the Federal Reserve has turned the market into a casino,” he said.

“It’s really helped undermine the productivity of the American economy, which is one of the reasons we have huge trade deficits.”

Many investors and wealth managers today structure their investment theses around trying to predict the Fed’s monetary policy. According to Schiff, this undermines the purpose of a stock market, which is to provide companies with much needed capital.

The Fed should be irrelevant. Nobody should be making investment decisions based on the Fed. Right now, the Fed is the only thing anybody cares about. ‘Are they going to raise rates? By how much?’”

“Everything is riding on the decision of a few guys sitting in a room in Washington, D.C. That’s not how capitalism is supposed to work.”

Schiff questioned the sanity of such a system. “They decide the price of money. They decide the quantity of money. Why?”

“That makes no more sense than putting together a bureau to decide the price of oil, or the price of milk, or the price of bread … That’s what the Soviet Union used to do, and it was a disaster.”

Read more here…

end

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

OMINOUS MILITARY and FINANCIAL NUCLEAR THREATS COULD ERUPT IN 2023

Egon von Greyerz
January 10, 2023

The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

More about these risks later in the article.

There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.

CURIOSITY AND RISK

With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.

Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.

As Einstein said:

The important thing is not to stop questioning.

Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”

There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.

I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.

Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.

The end of the 1980s was such an obvious period, especially in the property market. Stocks crashed in 1987 but if you are not leveraged, stock crashes normally don’t wipe you out. But in commercial property the leverage can kill a lot of investors and sadly did in the early 1990s.

The end of the 1990s was another period of very high risk in the tech sector. I was involved with a tech business in the UK and told the founder in late 1999 that we must sell the business for cash. This was the time when tech businesses were valued at 10x sales. Virtually none of them made a profit. So we managed to sell the business in 2000. We actually got shares as payment but were allowed to sell them immediately which we did. Thereafter the Nasdaq crashed by 80% and many businesses went bankrupt.

At those particular moments of extreme overvaluation, you do not have to be clever in order to get out and take profit. Super profits should always be realised when the valuation of businesses doesn’t make sense and the prospects don’t look good.

RISK OF MAJOR ESCALATION OF WAR

So let’s get back to the massive risks that are hanging over the world currently.

In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.

I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia.  Why would the US otherwise lead the initiative to sanction Russia and send weapons and money to Ukraine but send no peace keepers to Russia?

Let us just remind ourselves that ordinary people never want war. The American people doesn’t want war, nor do the Russians or Ukrainians. It is without fail always the leaders who want war. And in most countries, even in the so called democratic USA, the leaders have total power when it comes to starting a war.

Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe.  Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.

The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war but the situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.

The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skillfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.

The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. Russia’s main aim is for the Minsk agreement to be honoured whilst the US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.

The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE UNTHINKABLE

Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous. 

The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real.

There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.

Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.

FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.

I have in numerable articles (link) and interviews (link) outlined that the global debt expansion will end badly.

This can be illustrated in a number of pictures so let us look at two self explanatory graphs.

The first one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. That sounds like a sensational figure but the explanation is simple. Derivatives were around $1.4 quadrillion over 10 years ago as reported by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) in Basel. But with some hocus-pocus they reduced the figure to $600 trillion to make it look better cosmetically. The BIS decided just to take just one side of a contract as the outstanding risk. But we all know, it is the gross risk that counts. When a counterparty fails, gross risk remains gross. So as far as I am concerned, the old base figure was still $1.4Q.

 Since then derivatives have grown exponentially. Major amounts of debt are now created in the derivatives market rather then in the cash market. Also, the shadow banking system  of hedge funds, insurance companies and other financial business are also major issuers of  derivatives. Many of these transactions are not in the BIS figures. Thus I believe it is realistic to assume that the derivatives market has grown at least in line with debt but probably a lot faster in the last 10+ years.  So the gross figure is easily in excess of $2 quadrillion today.

When the debt crisis starts in earnest which could be today or in the next 2-3 years, major defaults in derivatives will become debt as central banks print money on an unprecedented scale in a futile attempt to save the financial system. This is how debt can grow to $3Q by 2030 as the graph illustrates.

US GDP GROWTH IS ILLUSORY

The second graph shows that the US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money.

In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.

The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. As the graph above shows, GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.

The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.

There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.

Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Finally mining shares are showing their leverage to the price of gold

(Brien Lundin0

Brien Lundin: As gold rises, mining shares are showing leverage to the price

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 13:13Section: Daily Dispatches

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities
Metairie, Louisiana
Monday, January 9, 2023

In a Golden Opportunities letter last week, I resorted to my oft-used “Happy New Year” headline to highlight yet another early-year gold rally.

As I noted in that issue, gold often bottoms in mid-December and continues to rally well into a new year.

It doesn’t always happen that way, of course, but this year it has played out largely to script. The big difference this year is that gold didn’t decline into December but bottomed in early November.

In fact, gold is up fully $200 since the lows in early November. This is a great thing but, as I also noted last week, you wouldn’t know it from the dour outlooks being professed by gold bugs in every corner of the internet.

Moreover, many of these gold watchers are bemoaning the fact that, even if gold has been climbing, the gold stocks have refused to respond. 

But nothing could be further from the truth. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

end

Why Jan believes that gold will finally rise into a bull market

(Jan Nieuwenjuijs//Koos Jansen)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Zoltan Pozsar, the four prices of money, and the coming gold bull market

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 17:23Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Gainsville Coins, Lutz, Florida
Monday, January 9, 2023

Over the past 100 years there has been a correlation between major equity bear markets, adjustments in one of the four “prices of money,” and gold bull markets. If we let history be our guide, the current equity bear market is signaling a new gold bull market, supported by changes in the price of money.

One of the more intriguing financial analysts of our times is Zoltan Pozsar, managing director and global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. In his writings in the past months, one of the things that caught my attention was his framework for multiple prices of money.

Remarkably, when I looked up big historical changes in the price of the U.S. dollar, they usually succeeded equity bear markets and introduced gold bull markets. 

Because equities are in a bear market as we speak, we can expect a gold bull market in the years ahead, enabled by the Federal Reserve changing the price of money.

First let’s see how changes in the price of the dollar have caused gold bull markets in the past 100 years. Then we will add the stock market. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/zoltan-pozsar-four-prices-of-money-coming-gold-bull-market

end

Ted Butler: A special note about silver

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-09 19:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ted Butler
Monday, January 9, 2023

For the first holiday-shortened trading week of the new year, gold turned in a very strong performance, ending higher by $40 (2.2%) while a late-day rally yesterday only resulted in silver narrowing its losses for the week to 18 cents (-0.7%). 

As a result of silver’s extreme relative underperformance, the silver/gold price ratio widened out by just over two full points to 78 to 1.

As far as trying to explain the surge in gold prices and silver’s failure to keep up over these past few days, let’s start with the obvious — namely, no one was selling long-term physical silver to convert to gold. 

Gold and silver prices are set by manipulative paper positioning on the Comex, so look no further for explanations. As I have warned of late, we must gird ourselves for deliberate manipulative smackdowns, such as seen this week in silver (complete with middle-of-the-night  non-economic price stabs to the downside). …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://silverseek.com/article/special-note

end

Ted Butler..

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(Special note – I hadn’t planned to publish this article to subscribers I sent as part of my twice-weekly subscription service ($34.95 per month), but a most trusted advisor, Jim Cook from Investment Rarities, Inc., strongly suggested I do so. Since Cook has never failed to provide solid advice for more than 20 years, I can’t cast his advice aside).                                        

For the first holiday-shortened trading week of the New Year, gold turned in a very strong performance, ending higher by $40 (2.2%), while a late day rally yesterday only resulted in silver narrowing its losses for the week to 18 cents (-0.7%). As a result of silver’s extreme relative underperformance, the silver/gold price ratio widened out by just over two full points to 78 to 1.

As far as trying to explain the surge in gold prices and silver’s failure to keep up over these past few days, let’s start with the obvious, namely, no one was selling long-tern physical silver to convert to gold. Gold and silver prices are set by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, so look no further for explanations. As I have warned of late, we must gird ourselves for deliberate manipulative smack downs, such as seen this week in silver (complete with middle-of-the-night  non-economic price stabs to the downside).

However, this takes nothing away from the surge in gold prices, where the recent changes in COMEX market structure and the still-extraordinary developments in the Bank Participation report, now including yesterday’s new release for positions held through Jan 3, still point to a “sea change” in the positioning of the banks. The fact is that the positioning on the COMEX was more bullish in gold than in silver.

Importantly, even though gold closed at six-month price highs on first day of trading of the new year and the cutoff day for yesterday’s COT and Bank Participation reports, the deterioration (managed money buying and commercial selling) feared failed to materialize and, essentially, didn’t exist at all in silver. Gold is now higher by $250 from the lows of early November and another $200 from here will put us at all-time highs and it’s still my impression that many don’t trust the current move higher (climbing a wall of worry). Same with silver. That’s music to a contrarian’s ears.

Let me run through the usual weekly format before turning attention to yesterday’s COT and Bank Participation reports. I did get an email from a subscriber shortly after the reports were published who asked, not about the details of the Bank Participation report, which he knew I would cover today, but just to give him a “thumbs up” or “thumbs down” on whether the report coincided with my recent conclusion of a serious and highly encouraging change in bank shorting. My answer to Greg was “thumbs up”.

The turnover or physical movement of metal either brought into or removed from the COMEX-approved silver warehouses snapped back sharply from last week’s subdued movement, despite this being another 4-day work week. This week, some 7.8 million oz were physically moved and total COMEX silver warehouse holdings rose by 1.6 million oz to 300.6 million oz. Holdings in the JPMorgan COMEX warehouse rose by a much-sharper 3.4 million oz to 152.8 million oz.

I know I have devoted much time discussing the extraordinary physical movement of silver in the COMEX warehouses, both recently and over the past near 12 years, but I also know this is an issue not widely appreciated. Truth be told, I count that as a personal failure of me not being able to communicate an issue that I have come to believe is every bit as important as to whether the big banks step aside in adding aggressively to short positions should this rally continue.

One thing that I believe is near universally-accepted by most proponents of silver is that when the physical shortage reaches the point where its existence can no longer be hidden or managed, that will be the point at which prices can no longer be contained by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, as has occurred for 40 years. It has recently occurred to me that the extraordinarily large COMEX silver warehouse inventory turnover – a phenomenon that exists in no other commodity –  is the purest sign possible that the physical shortage is very close at hand and it frustrates the heck out of me that I have been unable to convey that.

My dear departed friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, always referred to this point as the “moment of true”, as the certainty of too low of a price not causing a physical shortage at some point was impossible. Yet, aside from that basic truth, there was little to go on as indicating how close we might be to that moment. The start of the highly unusual physical movement of silver into and out from the COMEX warehouses began close to 12 years ago, almost precisely at the time Izzy no longer followed silver, so I have been left to ponder the meaning of the physical movement without the benefit of my mentor’s wisdom and input.

That said, let me state it this way – I believe the extraordinary physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses is the surest possible sign anyone could ever get in advance that the physical shortage is close at hand. I know that it has been 12 years since this physical movement began, so who the heck am I to suggest it is signaling we are close to the point where the silver shortage will soon be highly visible and unmanageable? I’d answer that, taken together with all the extraordinary developments over this time, from JPMorgan accumulating a billion oz silver and 30 million oz (maybe more) gold physical position, to then settling with the DOJ and double crossing its fellow big COMEX shorts, to more things than I can recite here.  It’s the totality of the issues.

I would point out that it has been nearly three months where total COMEX silver warehouse inventories, after declining sharply over the two prior years (by as much as 100 million oz), have now hovered around the 300 million oz level. Yet, the turnover persists. Without getting too deep into the weeds, this suggests to me that we may be actually at the point where only new stuff brought in can satisfy new demands for physical silver – and where the silver in the warehouses  are owned by those not interested in selling. Yes, this is very speculative on my part and it could easily turn out we’re not as close as I suggest. But would anyone prefer I hide my thoughts and only after the physical silver shortage becomes highly visible, then say it was on my mind?

The flows of physical metal continued to be steady in the gold ETFs, and this week, flows of physical metal into SLV, the big silver ETF, turned positive, to the tune of 1.5 million oz, as a result of last night’s near 3 million oz deposit. Even if the deposit was designed to reduce the short position , as I suspect, it won’t be reflected in Wednesday’s new short report, but I won’t be able to discuss it until the next weekly review (since the report comes out late that day). Should there be a sharp increase in the short position on SLV, I do plan to complain anew to the SEC and BlackRock.

Turning to yesterday’s reports, let me deal with the Commitments of Traders (COT) report first. Since gold did close at its highest price point  in six months on the cutoff on heavy trading volume (silver surged initially that day, but sold off pretty sharply into the close), it was not unreasonable to fear significant deterioration. Fortunately, that did not turn out to be the case.

In COMEX gold futures, the commercials increased their total net short position by 6200 contracts to 160,000 contracts. While this is the largest total commercial short position in six months, it still does not look excessive. There’s no way gold could rise more than $200 without market structure deterioration, much like there’s no way to make an omelet without cracking some eggs. Moreover, the changes by commercial categories weren’t alarming.

The 4 biggest commercial shorts added 2700 new shorts to a short position now at 130,324 contracts (13 million oz), and the next largest 5 thru 8 shorts added 800 more shorts, bringing the big 8 short position to 211,215 contracts (21.1 million oz). The raptors (the smaller commercials apart from the big 8) sold off 2700 long contracts, reducing their net long position to 51,200 contracts – still a very large net long position.

On the buy side of gold, the managed money traders were net buyers of 3704 contracts, consisting of the purchase of 2157 new longs and the buyback and covering of 1547 shorts. Given the price action, the managed money buying was quite muted and adds to my previous point of how unloved or disbelieved in the rally in gold has been so far. The net managed money long position is now 54,581 contracts (109,140 longs versus 54,559 shorts), up from the net short position of a few months back, but nowhere near close to the  dangerously-large net long positions of the past.

I’m starting to think, if the former big COMEX commercial shorts (the banks) are as devious as I believe them to be and they continue to refrain from adding aggressively to short positions, aside from continued raptor long liquidation, that the big managed money longs may wind up missing a major portion of a big gold rally.

Explaining the difference between what the commercial sold and the managed money traders bought was some net buying by the other large reporting traders and the smaller non-reporting traders – but keep in mind that there wasn’t significant positioning in this report.

In COMEX silver futures, the commercials increased their total net short position by a scant 1300 contracts, to 44,200 contracts. Actually, there was no new shorting, as the raptors sold off 1300 longs, in reducing their net long position to 22,100 contracts. The 4 big silver shorts bought back 100 shorts and held 44,085 shorts (220 million oz), while the big 5 thru 8 added 100 shorts, leaving the big 8 short position unchanged at 66,259 contracts (331 million oz). In this case, watching paint dry was good.

The managed money traders in silver actually sold 1039 net contracts, consisting of the purchase of 1907 new longs and the new short sale of 2946 contracts. The net managed money long position contracted a bit to 27,777 contracts (46,929 longs versus 19,152 shorts) – always good news. Both the other large reporting traders and smaller non-reporting traders were net buyers, mostly via short covering.

Turning to the new Bank Participation report, this month’s report featured a reversal of sorts from the prior report, in that the relative lack of bank selling was more pronounced in silver, whereas it was in gold in the prior report. From Dec 6 to Jan 3, while the total commercial net short position in gold increased by roughly 30,000 contracts, the banks in the BPR only accounted for 13,000 contracts of the selling, with non-banks (a variety of swap dealers), accounted for the balance of 17,000 contracts. A s a reminder, the price of gold rose about $80 over this time.

Looking back from the BPR as of Nov 1, the total commercial net short position in gold increased by 85,000 contracts to Jan 3, as gold prices rose by $200, and the portion of total commercial selling by banks was 30,000 contracts, compared to non-bank commercial selling of 55,000 contracts. This is about the smallest bank selling in memory.

Thus, the “thumbs up” as far as my tentative conclusion of a sea change in bank shorting. Of course, I suppose the banks could come onto the short side at higher prices, so nothing is written in stone at this point. But let me run through silver first, before I offer yet another speculative conclusion worthy of the Twilight Zone.

From Dec 6 to Jan 3, the total commercial net short position in COMEX silver increased by 12,000 contracts, as prices rose more than $2. Yet, the banks accounted for less than 2000 contracts of that selling. From Nov 1 to Jan 3, the total commercial short position in COMEX silver increased by 34,000 contracts on a rally of more than $5. Yet the banks only accounted for little more than 10,000 contracts of the selling, with non-bank commercials (swap dealers) making up the vast bulk of commercial selling. Unusual, to say the least, and to this point, very much in sticking to my sea change premise.

Having acknowledged that all of this could be but a brief respite from the 40-year COMEX price manipulation, should the banks return to the short side in an aggressive manner, let me lay out a very different scenario that might border on fantasy to many. Here, I have to repeat that when I look at silver (and gold), I consider absolutely none of the things that many put into their mix – things like inflation, interest rates, the economy, the stock market, the real estate market, the fate of the ongoing horrific war in Ukraine or the political circus I can’t seem to escape.

Don’t take me wrong, all these things are important to me (and everyone else) to some degree as a citizen and fellow traveler of this journey we’re all on. But even if I, or anyone could predict the course of inflation, interest rates, etc., over the next year or so, when it comes to silver and gold, none of these things matter in the least. One doesn’t have to look further than the record changes in inflation and interest rates this year compared to flat gold and silver performance. I’ve spent too much of my life learning all these things don’t amount to squat in making any difference to the price of silver and gold. The only thing that matters is the state of the COMEX price manipulation; as in, does it continue or not.

I’ve laid out the critical factor of will the big commercials add aggressively to short positions on rallies too many times (and being wrong in guessing that they won’t), so that I don’t need to explain why I’m so excited about the recent evidence in the COT and Bank Participation reports  that the banks have been hanging back in adding shorts to this point. I further believe they may have very good reason for hanging back. I think it’s directly connected to incredible physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses, despite my inability to convey convincingly my argument.

I believe the decades of silver price suppression (nowhere near as evident in gold or any other commodity) has achieved one of the strongest dictates of the law of supply and demand, namely, in any consumable commodity, any prolonged and artificial price suppression must eventually end in a physical shortage or the inability of current supply to satisfy current demand. This is more sacrosanct and immutable than any of the teachings of the world’s great religions. The problem in silver, as opposed to any other commodity, is that enormous stockpiles of metal accumulated over time; so much so that it was impossible to know in advance how much silver could come to market before existing available inventories could no longer supplement current production. Let’s face it – it’s quite difficult to predict the exact timing of a seminal event occurring for the very first time.

That’s the real message of the unprecedented physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses – it has persisted and intensified precisely as the ability to draw from existing inventories has been steadily depleted. No one would argue that when the precise moment of truth arrives and no more significant physical quantities are available  at current prices – no known force in the world (except perhaps JPMorgan) – will be capable of providing physical silver – no government or commercial entity. And while JPM may be capable of forestalling the physical crunch by sacrificing its masterfully-acquired physical hoard, that’s about as far from how it normally rolls, as is possible.

Since those in charge of running the ongoing massive physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses are precisely the very same  banks on the COMEX which have come to be leery of adding new short positions as aggressively as in the past and since these guys don’t need me to explain to them how critical the physical situation in silver has become, there would appear to another connection hard to deny. Certainly, those in charge of the physical silver  turnover in the COMEX warehouses know as well as anyone that once the silver shortage suddenly hits with a force intensified by a 40-year violation of the law of supply and demand, there will be little anyone can do to prevent a price explosion of the ages.

Perhaps the most singular spectacular achievement of the 12-year intense physical movement in the COMEX silver warehouses is that it has succeeded in keeping the world’s industrial silver users and fabricators fully-supplied in this just-in-time world. The minute the on-time silver deliveries hit a snag, some users, in seeking to avert future delivery delays, will move to order extra or stockpile silver. This will set off a chain reaction. The miracle is that it hasn’t happened to this point.  Some may argue that it means it will never happen, but as supply chain difficulties have developed in a wide variety of various items over the past couple of years, it seems to guarantee a silver supply snag at some point – the difference being that any such “minor” snag in silver should rapidly escalate into a man against man free for all.

The only thing these banks, including JPMorgan, can possibly do when the physical silver storm hits is to batten down the hatches, with everyone seeking shelter, as trying to vanquish a physical shortage 40 years in the making is simply not possible. And that, my friends, is what I think is behind the sudden reluctance of the banks which have always been most comfortable on the short side, to be as heavily short as they have in the past. This is also very much in keeping with the massive positioning changes of the past year and just about everything important over the decades.

Look, I’m not trying to be a wise-guy with all the answers who will also be able to pinpoint accurately the precise moment of liftoff. As always, I’m just trying to make sense out of verifiable public data. At the same time, it’s high-time someone stands up to admit that  the unprecedented physical turnover in the COMEX silver warehouses is so unusual that ignoring it is no longer a legitimate option if one professes to have an interest in silver.

Ted Butler

January 7, 2023

4. Other gold/silver commentaries

A good one:  why China is hoarding gold. A must read!!

(zerohedge)

‘A Sanctions-Evasion War-Chest Ahead Of Taiwan Invasion’ – Why Is China Hording Gold Again?

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 03:45 PM

A month ago, we confirmed the identity of the “mystery” gold-buyer who had been suddenly hording the precious metal in recent months.

Specifically, we identified China as the hidden whale buying the barbarous relic when all around them are decrying it’s inflation-hedging help, remarking at the time that for China, the need to find an alternative to dollars, which dominate its reserves, has rarely been greater.

Tensions with the US have been high since measures taken against its semiconductor firms, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated Washington’s willingness to sanction central bank reserves. In other words, now that the US has shown it is ready to weaponize the dollar, any USD reserves held by the Fed, Western banks or any other counterparty, could and will be promptly confiscated if China does something unpalatable… like invading Taiwan. Which is why China is desperately seeking money without counterparty risk. Here it has just two choices: crypto or gold. For now, it has picked the latter.

Today, commodities strategists at TD Securities agree that the gold whale could be the Chinese official sector.

The rally in gold prices over the past two months has defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, including TD Securities. Yet, we see little evidence that the rise in gold prices is associated with a changing macro narrative. Given the bearish macro backdrop, speculative interest in gold has remained exceptionally lackluster as the world barrels towards a recession,” senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali writes.

“Armed with a flows-based approach, we present strong evidence that behemoth Chinese and official sector purchases may have single-handedly catalyzed a $150/oz mispricing in gold markets,” he adds.

Chinese traders have been the only directly observable underlying buyers. Our tracking of the top ten participants in Shanghai highlights a notable increase in net length from this cohort, equivalent to 100 tonnes in notional gold since December 20th. This was primarily driven by more than 16k SHFE lots of new longs acquired over this timeframe, continuing the trend of notable rise in Shanghai gold length since early November. The pace of gold purchases from Shanghai traders has yet to show any sign of slowing as traders’ net length approaches last-twelve-month highs.

Further, signs of Chinese interest in gold are also apparent in the yellow metal’s microstructure. Chinese gold premiums remain extremely elevated by historical standards, which points to strong underlying demand for the yellow metal.

While premiums are below the extreme levels seen over the summer of 2022, when Mainland gold supply was constrained by lackluster quotas, their recent strength is rather a symptom of outstanding demand.

In turn, rather than viewing gold’s resilience as a function of a changing macroeconomic narrative, Chinese demand at a massive scale is likely the main culprit behind the strong price action that has defied analyst and trader views over past months. This helps to explain the disconnect between gold and real rates, in favor of a tighter relationship with currencies.

However, Ghali notes that “what is less clear is what has driven these massive purchases.”

The TD Securities’ strategist has a few ideas:

  • Reserve Currency Ambitions: A contingent of market participants has suggested that gold is gaining market share as a reserve asset. After all, USD valuations have moved to extremes following the build-up in USD cash and associated stagflation hedges. European data surprises are surging with growth expectations on the rise as extremely mild weather helped the region fare with the ongoing energy shock, at the same time as a fast-paced Chinese reopening bolsters rest-of-world growth — factors which are all in support of a cyclical peak in USD value. Most importantly, however, is the rise in perceived sanctions risks associated with USD reserves held in the East, following the introduction of Western sanctions on Russia this year; these have likely bolstered official purchases. This is consistent with official purchases announced by Turkey, Qatar and other nations. Market participants have pointed to the rapprochement between China and Gulf nations to support the thesis that demand for USD reserves is indeed declining. President Xi attended the very first China-Arab States Summit in history, seen as an echo to FDR’s meeting with King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud in 1945 which cemented a new paradigm amounting to US security guarantees exchanged for oil sold in US dollars. Today, US incentives to provide security are likely to decline over the coming decade along with Western oil demand, whereas China’s growing demand for energy is likely to solidify trade with GCC nations over this timeframe. President Xi also spoke of a new paradigm — one of all-dimensional energy cooperation, which will entirely rely on RMB settlement for oil and gas trade over the next five years. While the long-term resilience of this thesis is difficult to rank in the present, this narrative is certainly consistent with price action associated with a steep accumulation of gold in support of the renminbi.
  • Hedging Sanctions: We previously discussed the rise in perceived sanctions risks associated with USD reserves held in the East, following the introduction of Western sanctions on Russia this year. A less likely scenario worth considering is whether a steep increase in gold reserves could be associated with the building of a sanction-evasion war chest tied to China’s geopolitical ambitions. Tensions between China and Taiwan have come to a boil over the past year with a heightened sense of fear of a military confrontation since the war in Ukraine. In turn, some market participants could plausibly fear that the steep accumulation of gold is preceding a military confrontation, but there is little concrete evidence to support this. Further, one could argue that this is inconsistent with an apparent détente with the West, highlighted by the recent lifting of China’s embargo on Australian coal and a notable shift in China’s foreign policy communications.
  • Chinese Reopening Demand: Our tracking of Shanghai gold positioning appears to loosely correlate with the frequency of Chinese reopening-themed news stories. Official sector purchases, however, are likely to have correlated more closely. After China’s widespread Q2 lockdowns had depressed jewellery, bar and coin demand, it is plausible that the comeback in sales observed during Q3 has gathered steam amid robust pent-up demand. While this is less appealing than a grandiose narrative about a change in geopolitical regimes, it is also consistent with the sharp recovery in gold demand observed with urban Indian consumers over the past year and with price action associated with a surge in Chinese demand. However, this thesis would clearly be more transient and would likely imply that gold prices are subject to a steep consolidation once Chinese pent-up demand is satiated and reverts to normality. This scenario would increase risks of a consolidation towards $1700/oz or below, given gold’s steep overvaluation relative to its recent historical relationship with real rates.
  • Restocking for Chinese New Year: Similarly, Chinese New Year has tended to seasonally buoy gold prices. Several market participants anticipate this trend, and it’s plausible that large pent-up demand for gold associated with Chinese New Year celebrations are tied to the end of Zero-Covid. Over the past five years, gold prices have rallied from November to year-end in every single instance, averaging a 3.25% gain. The exceptional 10.7% gain in gold prices observed in this time horizon for 2022 could plausibly be tied to extremely elevated demand tied to these celebrations. Unfortunately, we find little concrete evidence to support this view. Nonetheless, this scenario would also likely be associated with a sharp slump in demand as Chinese New Year approaches.

Lacking additional data, we don’t find sufficient evidence at this time to bolster our conviction on what has driven Chinese purchases. The massive demand impulse from the official sector certainly fits with China’s reserve currency ambitions and with the accumulation of a sanctions war chest, but the latter appears inconsistent with an apparent détente in foreign policy.

While central bank buying rarely drives sustainable gold rallies, it can provide an important pillar of support when prices fall. The precious metal has been under pressure this year from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening, though it has held up relatively well against moves in the dollar and Treasury yields.

“As deglobalisation accelerates, the non-G-10 nations are expected to ‘re-commoditize’ and ramp up gold holdings,” said Nicky Shiels, head of strategy at MKS PAMP SA.

Finally, as Zoltan Pozsar wrote most recently here (and in a must-read note last month), the role of gold may be changing as first Russia, then other countries (China) seek to force out the petrodollar and replace it with petrogold, a move which would finally lead to substantial price upside for the yellow metal which has gone nowhere in the past 2 years.

Remember Zoltan’s portfolio adviceCommodities should include three types of gold: yellow, black, and whiteYellow gold is gold bars. Black gold is oil. White gold is lithium for EVs.

5. Commodity commentaries/COAL

China finally eases its ban on Australian coal imports.  The fight begin two years ago after China spread the COVID 19 around the world

(zerohedge)

China Eases Ban On Australian Coal Imports, But Impact Will Be Mostly Symbolic

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 10:00 PM

China has allowed several large coal importers to resume purchases of Australian coal, easing an unofficial ban that has lasted more than two years, as Beijing looks to strengthen energy security after ditching the zero Covid policy. 

China enacted an unofficial ban on Australian coal in October 2020 after Australia backed a call for an international inquiry into the way China handled the initial COVID outbreak in early 2020. China’s decision to allow four big importers to restart imports of coal from Australia is a sign of a thawing in relations between the two nations and sparked hope that trade between the two could return to normal. 

As OilPrice notes, last week China’s National Development and Reform Commission discussed the idea to allow four large Chinese coal importers to make new purchases of Australian coal this year. These are China Baowu Steel Group Corp, China Datang Corporation, China Huaneng Group Co, and China Energy Investment Corporation.

China Energy Investment Corp has already placed an order for purchasing coal from Australia, and the first cargo could load as early as this month, according to Reuters. Moreover, the surge in Covid cases after the end of the restrictions has resulted in lower coal supply from China’s key coal-producing centers Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, traders told Reuters.

At the same time, Reuters also notes that China’s decision to allow imports of Australian coal after more than two years of an unofficial ban is one of those moves where the symbolic importance outweighs the practical impact. The partial easing of the ban will see three utilities and a major steelmaker given permission to resume imports from Australia, which used to be the second-biggest supplier to China prior to the curbs being imposed in mid-2020.

As Reuters adds, while there is likely to be some interest among Chinese buyers for cargoes from Australia, the likelihood of a return to prior levels of trade is limited as regional and global market dynamics have shifted substantially.

That doesn’t mean the move is without significance, but the impact is likely to be more about improving ties between China and Australia, which became strained when Canberra called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in China banning imports of several goods from Australia, including barley, wine and lobsters.

The partial easing of the ban will see three utilities and a major steelmaker given permission to resume imports from Australia, which used to be the second-biggest supplier to China prior to the curbs being imposed in mid-2020.

That said, there are several reasons why Australian coal won’t once again become a major factor in China, the world’s largest importer of the fuel used mainly for power generation or to make steel.

The first, and most important, is that Australian coal will struggle to compete on price in China, especially thermal grades used to make electricity.

Prior to the ban in July 2020, China was importing in the region of 3.5 to 4.3 million tonnes of thermal coal from Australia, with the 2020 peak coming in at 4.26 million in April of that year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

For that month, it gave Australia a market share of 21% of China’s total thermal coal imports, well behind the leader Indonesia, which had a share of 69%.

While the numbers did move around somewhat on a monthly basis, the April 2020 data is representative of the broader trend in China’s imports of thermal coal, namely Indonesia dominated and Australia was a distant second.

Once the informal ban came into effect, Australia’s share of China’s imports dropped to zero by early 2021.

It’s also the case that China’s overall imports slumped in the months after the ban was imposed, but they started to recover from November 2020 onwards and by June 2021 thermal coal arrivals were exceeding 2020 levels.

What effectively happened is that Russian cargoes replaced Australian, with seaborne thermal coal imports from China’s northern neighbour reaching 3.37 million tonnes by June 2021, having been just 1.07 million in April 2020, the peak month for imports from Australia that year.

China’s imports of Russian thermal coal have remained solid, with some seasonal variations, since then and were 2.96 million tonnes in December, according to Kpler.

The question is whether Australian coal miners can compete on price with Russian thermal supplies, and the answer is probably not. Chinese utilities previously imported lower grade Australian thermal coal, so the closest match is the 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg) assessment by commodity price reporting agency Argus. This was pegged at $132 a tonne in the week to Jan. 6, which is roughly similar to Russian thermal coal at the eastern port of Nakhodka, which was assessed by McCloskey at $130.

However, the freight rate strongly favours Russian supplies given the shorter distance to reach Chinese ports.

There is also more than price to consider.

Australian coal miners, as well as the region’s traders, shippers and bankers, will be wary of going back into the Chinese market, having been burnt by the unofficial ban back in 2020. This means they are likely to be willing to sell again to China, but will also be more demanding in terms of price and guarantees. They may also be reluctant to divert coal away from the buyers they gained after the Chinese ban, especially those in places like India and Vietnam.

In short, it will likely take some time to rebuild trust and trading relationships. Add in a likely price disadvantage and it’s hard to see Australian thermal coal charging back into China.

Where there is more scope is in metallurgical, or coking, coal, where Australian cargoes are likely to be more price competitive against those from Russia and the United States. Australia used to be China’s top supplier of imported seaborne coking coal, with imports peaking at 6.84 million tonnes in June 2020, for a market share of 94%. Russia was a distant second in June 2020, supplying just 409,916 tonnes, according to Kpler.

The unofficial ban on Australia coal saw China’s imports of seaborne coking coal plunge, and unlike thermal coal they have not recovered and were just 2.14 million tonnes in December 2022, or just under 30% of June 2020 levels. China has been forced to import more coking coal overland from neighbouring Mongolia and has also boosted domestic output to make up for the shortfall.

While Australian coking coal is likely to be more pricey than that from Mongolia, it can also be delivered to coastal steel mills more easily. Australian supplies may also be more costly than those from Russia, but Russia has limited capacity to supply more volumes, which means Chinese buyers may be willing to purchase Australian supplies to ensure security of supply.

But it may take some time for Australian coking coal to return to China in meaningful volumes for much the same reasons as thermal coal, a lack of trust, the need to rebuild trading relationships and a reluctance to cut off other buyers.

* * *

With demand for winter heating rising, China now looks to avoid another coal crunch. China has put more emphasis on energy security since the autumn of 2021 when power shortages crippled its industry. In 2022, China said it would continue to maximize the use of coal in the coming years as it caters to its energy security, despite pledges to contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions.

In recent months, China has significantly boosted its coal production, following government orders. China’s daily coal production hit a record high in November 2022 as demand for heating jumped, beating the previous record set in September 2022.  

END

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

Coinbase fires 20% of its workforce and warns of dark times in the crypto field

(zerohedge)

Coinbase Fires 20% Of Workforce; CEO Warns Of “Dark Times” In Crypto

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 09:22 AM

Coinbase is reducing its workforce again amid a collapse in its stock price, turmoil in crypto land, and broader macroeconomic headwinds. 

The cryptocurrency exchange will cut approximately 20% of its workforce, or about 950 jobs, in a second round of layoffs in less than one year. Coinbase had 4,700 employees at the end of September and had already slashed its headcount by 18% in June last year. 

“Therefore, I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce our operating expense(1) by about 25% Q/Q, which includes letting go of about 950 people(2). All impacted team members will be informed by today,” CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in a letter to employees.

Armstrong explained the company will be “shutting down several projects where we have a lower probability of success.” He said those teams have already had their access to internal systems stripped and will be contacted by the company today.

Affected team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and senior leader. Coinbase system access has already been removed. I realize this last step feels sudden and harsh, but I believe it’s the only prudent choice given our responsibility to protect customer information.

He added that the firings weren’t due to job performance but based on economic turmoil in the broader economy and the crypto space. 

To those of you who will be leaving, please know that this is not a reflection of your work or contributions to Coinbase. I believe we have an incredible team, and all of you have been important members of that. Instead, it’s a reflection of the current economic climate and crypto market. 

He continued:

Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line, and sometimes it can feel like we’re taking two steps forward and one step back. But just like we saw with the internet, the most important companies not only survive but thrive during down markets by being rigorous with cost management, and continuing to build innovative products.

Armstrong considers the current environment “dark times.” He warned last June:

We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom. A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period.

Coinbase shares in premarket trading are down nearly 3%. Since the IPO in the spring of 2021, shares have plunged 89%.

As for Bitcoin, it’s down nearly 75% since peaking at around $67.7k in late 2021. 

*  *  *

Here’s Armstrong’s full letter to employees:

Team,

In 2022, the crypto market trended downwards along with the broader macroeconomy. We also saw the fallout from unscrupulous actors in the industry, and there could still be further contagion.

Coinbase is well capitalized, and crypto isn’t going anywhere. In fact, I believe recent events will ultimately end up benefiting Coinbase greatly (a large competitor failing, emerging regulatory clarity, etc.), and they validate our long term strategy. But it will take time for these changes to come to fruition and we need to make sure we have the appropriate operational efficiency to weather downturns in the crypto market, and capture opportunities that may emerge.

Therefore, I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce our operating expense(1) by about 25% Q/Q, which includes letting go of about 950 people(2). All impacted team members will be informed by today.

I’d like to explain how we got here, what it will mean for those impacted, and how we’ll move forward. I also want to be clear that, while some of the factors that have brought us to this point are beyond our control, accountability rests with me as the CEO. We also reduced headcount last year as the market started to correct, and in hindsight, we could have cut further at that time.

How we got here

Every year we do our annual planning process where we run different scenarios for revenue: bull, base, and bear. The crypto industry is difficult to predict, but it’s important to have planning in place that ensures we can succeed as a business in multiple potential outcomes. Over the last decade, Coinbase has made it through multiple bear markets using this process. This is the first time we’ve seen a crypto cycle coincide with a broader economic downturn, but otherwise it is similar.

As we examined our 2023 scenarios, it became clear that we would need to reduce expenses to increase our chances of doing well in every scenario. While it is always painful to part ways with our fellow colleagues, there was no way to reduce our expenses significantly enough, without considering changes to headcount.

As part of a headcount reduction like this, we will be shutting down several projects where we have a lower probability of success. Affected teams will receive communication on this today. Our other projects will continue to operate as normal, just with fewer people on the team. We will share more detail publicly on our expense outlook in a public 8-K filing today and on our Q4 earnings call in February. 

Affected team members and transition support

Affected team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and senior leader. Coinbase system access has already been removed. I realize this last step feels sudden and harsh, but I believe it’s the only prudent choice given our responsibility to protect customer information.

To those of you who will be leaving, please know that this is not a reflection of your work or contributions to Coinbase. I believe we have an incredible team, and all of you have been important members of that. Instead, it’s a reflection of the current economic climate and crypto market. 

We will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. For those of you in the US, this includes a minimum of 14 weeks base pay (2 additional weeks per year worked), health insurance, and other benefits. We are also providing extra transition support for impacted employees on a work visa. Those of you outside the US will receive similar support in line with the employment laws of your country. 

We’re also giving everyone access to our Talent Hub to help connect you with your next career opportunity. Coinbase employees are among the most talented in the world, and I’m certain that your skills and experience will stand out, even in a challenging job market.

Moving forward

To everyone we’re losing, I want to sincerely thank you for everything you’ve done here. You’ve played a huge role in making crypto more trusted and easy to use, and our customers and the world are better for it.

To everyone who is staying, I know this is a challenging day. This latest downturn has caused plenty of fear and anxiety. Thank you for your resilience. Our mission is more important than ever, and these changes will ensure we build an enduring company during this period.

This is also a moment where I’d like us to focus on our startup culture, and remember what it feels like to have small, nimble teams that are able to get more done. As Coinbase grew so quickly in 2021, we all felt the coordination headwind that caused us to move more slowly. Over the past ten years, we, along with most tech companies, became too focused on growing headcount as a metric for success. Especially in this economic environment, it’s important to shift our focus to operational efficiency.

Despite everything we’ve been through as a company and an industry, I’m still optimistic about our future and the future of crypto. Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line, and sometimes it can feel like we’re taking two steps forward and one step back. But just like we saw with the internet, the most important companies not only survive but thrive during down markets by being rigorous with cost management, and continuing to build innovative products.

Dark times also weed out bad companies, as we’re seeing right now. But those of us who believe in crypto will keep building great products and increasing economic freedom in the world. Better days are ahead, and when they arrive, we’ll be ready. Thank you for everything you’ve done to get us this far, and everything you will do to carry us forward.

Brian

END

Genesis is another crooked operation and will go down just like FTX

(Wright/CoinTelegraph)

“No Path Forward” – Gemini’s Winklevoss Blasts DCG’s Silbert Over “Carefully Crafted Campaign Of Lies”

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Recursive trades between Grayscale trust and the Three Arrows Capital hedge fund allegedly inflated assets and fees, according to open letter from the Gemini presidentimage.png

Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has penned an open letter to the board of Digital Currency Group, or DCG, saying CEO Barry Silbert was “unfit” to run the company.

In a Jan 10. letter, Winklevoss claimed Silbert and Genesis Global Capital — a subsidiary of DCG — had defrauded more than 340,000 users who were a part of Gemini’s Earn program.

The letter followed a Jan. 2 appeal on Twitter to Silbert directly, in which the Gemini co-founder said Genesis owed Gemini $900 millionaccusing the CEO of hiding “behind lawyers, investment bankers, and process.”

According to Winklevoss, Genesis lent more than $2.3 billion to Three Arrows Capital, a move which ultimately left the crypto firm with a loss of $1.2 billion once the hedge fund failed in June 2022.

In the letter Cameron Winklevoss explains, in detail, his accusations about Silbert’s actions using recursive trades between Grayscale Trust and Three Arrows Capital to inflate assets and fees…

How did we get here? Greed.

As a standalone business, it’s inconceivable that Genesis would have lent so much money to 3AC given the low quality of the collateral that 3AC posted. Genesis made these loans because it was one piece of a much larger scheme designed to enrich the greater DCG enterprise. More specifically, Genesis was willing to recklessly lend to 3AC because 3AC was using the money for the kamikaze Grayscale net asset value (NAV) trade – a recursive trade that ballooned the AUM of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker: GBTC) and, as a consequence, the fees earned by its sponsor, Grayscale Investments, LLC (Grayscale), a wholly owned subsidiary of DCG.

Genesis booked these interactions with 3AC as bona fide, collateralized loans. It is becoming clear, however, that this was not the case at all. In reality, 3AC was acting as a mere conduit for Genesis, allowing it to enter into what were effectively swap transactions of bitcoin for GBTC shares with the Grayscale Trust. In this transaction, Genesis was betting that shares would be worth more than bitcoin in the future. The 3AC “loan” was the bitcoin leg of the swap and the 3AC “collateral” was the GBTC leg of the swap. 3AC was a mule shuttling the assets between the parties, and as a result Genesis ended up owning massive risk.

Up until 2021, Genesis won this zero-sum trade because the GBTC shares were worth more than bitcoin. Starting in 2021, however, Genesis lost this trade because the shares were worth less than bitcoin. Normally, all things being equal, the gains and losses would cancel each other out. There is no free lunch. In other words, Genesis would participate in both the wins and losses. Astonishingly, however, it appears that Genesis never participated in the wins because it apparently always ceded them – the GBTC share premium – to 3AC. This meant that Genesis only participated in the losses, turning what would otherwise have been a zero-sum trade into a negative-sum trade. Crazy town.

Disturbingly, not only did Genesis not close out 3AC’s position when the NAV trade inverted (something any rational, independently operated business would have done), it continued to lend to 3AC on attractive terms and accept GBTC as collateral. For Grayscale, this had the desired effect of keeping GBTC shares from being sold into the market, which would have depressed the share price and further widened the discount to NAV. But for Genesis, this had the undesired effect of keeping its risk position open and allowing it to grow.

Why would Genesis enter into a toxic risk position where the best it could do was not lose money? Things only begin to make sense when you realize that the bitcoin this swap was stuffing into the Grayscale Trust like a Thanksgiving turkey is stuck there forever. It can never be redeemed (or at least until Grayscale, in its sole discretion, decides to implement a redemption program allowing GBTC shares to be converted back into bitcoin). As a result, Barry was comfortable with Genesis loading up more and more on this toxic trade because it was a gambit to feed the Grayscale Trust — Barry’s financial Hotel California that would print money for the DCG universe in perpetuity. The end would justify the means.

Original Accounting Fraud.

Instead of booking these swaps as the risky derivatives that they were, Genesis hid them by mischaracterizing the first and last legs of these swaps transactions as collateralized loans on its balance sheet. This made the Genesis balance sheet appear healthier than it actually was, fraudulently inducing lenders to continue making loans.

In June 2022, the music stopped. 3AC collapsed, laying bare the poisonous fruits of this radioactive trade.

Instead of stepping up to solve this self-created problem, and despite having earned more than a billion dollars in fees — all at the expense of Genesis lenders — Barry refused to take responsibility. Instead, he resorted to committing fraud to protect his ill-gotten gains.

He claimed Silbert, DCG, and Genesis orchestrated “a carefully crafted campaign of lies” starting in July 2022 in an effort to show DCG had injected the funds into Genesis.

“There is no path forward as long as Barry Silbert remains CEO of DCG,” said Winklevoss.

“He has proven himself unfit to run DCG and unwilling and unable to find a resolution with creditors that is both fair and reasonable. As a result, Gemini, acting on behalf of 340,000 Earn users, requests that the Board remove Barry Silbert as CEO.”

Read more here…

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO  6.7814

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7979

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR  0.21%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 56.88 PTS 0.27%  

2. Nikkei closed UP 201.71 PTS OR .78%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  103,12 Euro FALLS TO 1.0726 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.21/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.279%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.238%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.322…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.438//

3j Gold at $1871.95//silver at: 23.48  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 21/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 69.49//

3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and  79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.21

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9224– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9894 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.567% UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.678% UP 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,78…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.5975 % UP 7 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Slump Ahead Of Powell Speech

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 08:08 AM

US futures dropped as investors waited to see whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will differentiate himself from hawkish comments made by two policy makers on Monday when he speaks later at an event in Sweden at 9am ET. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped to session lows around 7:15am ET after trading little changed for much of the overnight session. Traders are also reluctant to take strong directional bets before US inflation data is published on Thursday and visibility clears up on the trajectory of interest rates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was near session after trading earlier in a tight range, while the rest of the currencies in the Group of 10 were mixed. Treasuries also broke out above a range, hitting session highs around 3.57% around the time stocks stumbled. Oil rose with gold and Bitcoin rallying for a seventh-straight day.

Among US premarket movers, Virgin Orbit slumped as much as 27%, putting the stock on track for its biggest drop since June 2022, after the failure of a rocket that Richard Branson’s satellite company launched from a Boeing 747. Among winners, Oak Street Health rose 33% after Bloomberg reported that drugstore operator CVS is exploring an acquisition of the primary care provider, in a deal which could exceed $10 billion, including debt. Shares in Frontline, listed both in the US and Norway, surged as much as 20% in Oslo after the shipping giant controlled by billionaire John Fredriksen walked away from its plans to acquire Belgium’s Euronav, which dropped 21% on the news. Bed Bath & Beyond shares also jumped as much as 20%, poised to continue its rebound from the previous session, ahead of its earnings report and after the troubled home furnishings retailer saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Boeing stock slides 2.7% as Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the planemaker to equal-weight from overweight, saying the stock is now approaching fair value following recent outperformance.
  • Frontline (FRO US) shares surge 22% after the company said it wouldn’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator Euronav. The decision not to proceed follows opposition from Belgium’s Saverys family – a major holder in Euronav.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares jump 20%, poised to continue their rebound from the previous session before its earnings report. The troubled home furnishings retailer also saw its long-term rating upgraded at S&P.
  • HP Enterprise shares were down 1.9% after Barclays downgraded them to equal-weight, taking a cautious view on IT hardware stocks in 2023 given a challenging macro backdrop. The broker also cut NetApp (NTAP US) and upgraded Keysight (KEYS US) shares.
  • Barclays expects a difficult 1H for US software stocks as estimates still look too high, even if valuation levels are “interesting.” The broker upgrades DoubleVerify (DV US) and Confluent (CFLT US), cuts Dynatrace (DT US).
  • RBC anticipates a challenging start for US software stocks in 2023, which will eventually give way to “green shoots” of optimism. The broker outlines its top picks in the sector and cuts Box (BOX US) to underperform.
  • Watch Chemours (CC US) after the stock was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC on expectations that a challenging fourth quarter for the chemicals firm will feed into the first half of 2023.
  • Keep an eye on PPG Industries (PPG US) as it was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC with limited upside seen for the paint-maker’s stock amid expectations that volumes will come under pressure.

Sentiment was dented on Monday, as a 1.4% gain in the S&P was fully reversed, after the San Francisco and Atlanta Fed presidents poured cold water on hopes that monetary tightening would soon ease off by calling for interest rates to rise above 5% and staying there, a scenario strategists believe would be negative for stock markets. It’s also what they have been saying for months, but the market is always happy to keep pricing in the same flashing red headline as if it was new.

“Sentiment is torn between the fear of missing out good news on inflation and, by opposite, angsts the Fed will be stubborn in its fight against inflation which reinforces the risk of a recession,” said Sarah Thirion, a Paris-based strategist at TP ICAP Europe. Fears about Covid in China and the trend of corporate guidance which will be unveiled during the next earnings season are also weighing on stocks, Thirion said.

“The same pattern keeps emerging, with investors clinging onto any data which appears to show the economy is cooling off, only to see their hopes dashed by policymakers who clearly believe the inflation-busting job is far from over,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Thursday’s US inflation report, which will come out almost a week after the latest jobs data showed wage growth has decelerated, will be among the last such readings Fed policy makers will see before their Jan. 31-Feb. 1 gathering.

European stock markets, which have outperformed Wall Street since September, were also in a cautious mood with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6% after hitting an eight-month high yesterday. Retailers, industrials and miners are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable European movers:

  • Orsted gains as much as 4.1% after being named among preferred picks in the renewables space by both Morgan Stanley and Exane.
  • Card Factory jumps as much as 9.4% after raising full-year pretax profit guidance in a trading update. Liberum said the greetings-card retailer delivered another “impressive” update.
  • Plus500 gains as much as 3% after giving an update for the year-end, with Liberum saying the trading platform saw an “excellent” performance in FY22.
  • AO World rises as much as 18% after raising guidance for FY adjusted Ebitda. Jefferies says the update shows that efforts to cut costs and improve margins are working.
  • European staffing stocks drop following a warning from UK recruiter Robert Walters and with Dutch peer Randstad downgraded by Degroof
  • Euronav slumps 21% after Frontline said it won’t make a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding shares of the oil tanker operator.
  • Husqvarna falls as much as 4.6%, the most since Dec. 15, after Danske Bank cut its recommendation to hold from buy, expecting a “challenging” first half of 2023.
  • Kahoot shares fall as much as 18%, the most since November, after the company published below-forecast fourth- quarter preliminary adjusted Ebitda on weak macro conditions.
  • Games Workshop falls as much as 6.9% after reporting 1H results that Jefferies said contained highs and lows, highlighting the challenges flagged by management.

Optimism for the region is rising with economists at Goldman Sachs no longer predicting a euro-zone recession after the economy proved more resilient at the end of 2022, natural gas prices fell sharply and China abandoned Covid-19 restrictions earlier than anticipated. GDP is now expected to increase 0.6% this year, compared with an earlier forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. Economists led by Jari Stehn warn in a report to clients of weak growth during the winter given the energy crisis, and say headline inflation will ease faster than thought, to about 3.25% by end-2023. As reported previously, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett said a new era may have started with the ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Stoxx Europe 600 breaking its 100-week moving average, a support that has held strong for more than a decade.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as Chinese equities halted their rally, which had pushed a key regional benchmark to a bull market, amid profit-taking and renewed caution on the Fed’s rate-hike path.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.3% as of 4:17 pm in Singapore, dragged lower by Alibaba and Ping An Insurance. Trading volume was about 4% lower than the three-month average, according to data complied by Bloomberg. Tuesday’s breather comes as Asia’s benchmark index a day earlier entered bull territory, driven by China’s reopening and a weakening dollar that lured investors back to the region after facing a downward spiral for much of 2022.  Benchmarks in Hong Kong posted moderate losses while stock gauges in India, Singapore and Indonesia dropped more than 1%. Indonesian stocks were on track to enter a technical correction as investors looked to cash out from one of Asia’s hottest markets for 2022.

Japanese equities climbed as traders returned from a holiday; as investors assessed the impact of China’s reopening and US job data that showed slower-than-expected average wage growth. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,880.88 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.8% to 26,175.56. Daikin Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 5.3%. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 1,092 rose and 953 fell, while 117 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks benefited from the belief that the Fed’s next rate hike will be more moderate,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “China’s reopening has a positive impact on Japanese stocks, and inbound demand will resume once regulations around Chinese tourists are eased.”

“After the sharp rally, Asian markets could see a bout of profit taking amid headwinds from tighter financial conditions and no respite in Fed rate-hike outlook,” said Nitin Chanduka, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.  Two Fed officials said the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. Still, the recent rally in Chinese equities may have more legs as consumption-driven firms drive the reopening rebound further and China shifts its focus to economic growth. Investors expect a strong 2023 for both Chinese stocks and the yuan as Asia’s largest economy bucks the global trend of weakening expansion. Morgan Stanley turned even more bullish on the market, raising price targets further and expecting China to top global equity-market performance in 2023.  “We remain of the view that Asian investors should use this volatility in 1Q23 as an opportunity to raise exposure,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia equity strategist at Nomura Holdings. 

Australian stocks nudged lower after Fed speakers dampened risk sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,131.00 as investors assessed hawkish commentary from Fed officials. The retreat halted the benchmark’s four-day run of gains. Miners and banks were the biggest drags on Tuesday. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,665.26

Stocks in India resumed a decline after bellwether Tata Consultancy’s quarterly earnings showed increasing caution over technology spending amid an uncertain economic outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1% to 60,115.48 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by an equal measure. Both the gauges are close to extending their losses from peak levels last month to 5% as investors resort to profit-taking at the start of the earnings season. Sixteen of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-gauges declined, led by telecom companies, while Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on the Sensex, plunging 1.5%. Tata Consultancy Services closed 1% lower after its net income for the fiscal third quarter trailed estimates. Foreign investors have been sellers of local shares this month, taking out about $602 million through Jan. 6 after $167m of outflows in December.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index jumped near session highs after the greenback initially slipped against most of its Group-of-10 peers. The dollar finds itself at a make-or-break technical moment, with its two-year rally under threat as key US inflation data looms.

  • The euro rose to a daily high of around $1.0750 in European session. The euro hit fresh cycle highs Monday and options pricing is coming to reflect a more constructive outlook in the short-term. Bunds and Italian bonds dropped, underperforming Treasuries
  • The Canadian dollar was steady. USD/CAD’s downward path is being refueled in the options space as traders position for an extended period of US dollar weakness
  • The Australian dollar was the worst G-10 performer. Sovereign bonds inched up
  • The yen was steady at 131.80 per dollar. Tokyo’s inflation outpaced forecasts to hit 4% for the first time since 1982, suggesting the underlying price trend is stronger than expected by economists, a factor that could further fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will adjust policy again

In rates, Treasuries ease lower, following wider losses across core European rates amid supply pressures and ahead of a Riksbank conference on central bank independence where ECB’s Schnabel, BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell are all scheduled to speak. US 10-year yield around 3.56%, cheaper by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 2.5bp and 2bp; long-end Treasuries outperformance flattens 5s30s by 1.5bp vs Monday’s close.  Front-end and intermediates lead slight losses in Treasuries, flattening 5s30s spread. After Powell appearance, the year’s first auction cycle begins at 1pm ET with $40bn in 3-year new issue, followed by $32b 10-year, $18b 30-year reopenings on Wednesday and Thursday.  European bonds are also in the red with Bund futures underperforming their UK counterparts. The Gilt curve bear steepens with 2s10s widening 2.1bps.

In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier drop to trade higher. WTI Has added 0.5% to trade near $75.00. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade near $1,877/oz.

Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.

Looking to the day ahea, at 9 a.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an event hosted by the Swedish central bank. Other speakers include  BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. An hour later, we’ll get the latest data on wholesale inventories. At 10:30 a.m., President Joe Biden will meet Canada’s Justin Trudeau, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland at 1:30 p.m. The US will sell $40 billion 3-year notes at 1 p.m.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,896
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 445.05
  • MXAP little changed at 161.72
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 534.27
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 26,175.56
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,880.88
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 21,331.46
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,169.51
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 60,097.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,131.00
  • Kospi little changed at 2,351.31
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0751
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.73/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $79.74/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,876.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.06

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Cost pressures in corporate Germany appear to be easing, with fewer companies planning price increases during the coming months. Price expectations for the whole economy fell to 40.3 points in December from 46.2 points the previous month, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute published Tuesday
  • Back in October equities and bonds were breaking from their normal settings to move together far more tightly than at almost any stage in history. Since then, the ties have only become tighter, as the prospects of an end to Fed rate hikes helps to drive gains for both Treasury futures and S&P 500 contracts
  • East European nations started 2023 with a flurry of dollar issuance, putting the region on track for a record year as it rediscovers the foreign-debt market beyond its traditional euro-denominated sales
  • Deflationary pressure in China worsened in the fourth quarter as the economy slumped, with price-growth likely to be subdued even when the economy rebounds later this year, according to China Beige Book International
  • Egypt’s urban inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in five years as several rounds of currency devaluation filtered through to consumers

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the risk appetite in the region stalled following a similar handover from Wall St where the major indices failed to sustain early gains despite a further dovish Fed repricing. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in industrials and mining stocks, although price action was rangebound amid the lack of any major fresh drivers. Nikkei 225 outperformed as it played catch-up to Monday’s advances on return from the extended weekend but with upside capped as participants also reflected on weak Household Spending and firm Tokyo CPI data releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the border reopening euphoria faded and despite reports that China will cut VAT for small businesses, while the PBoC also continued to drain liquidity.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese state media noted that the COVID-19 wave is past its peak in many parts of China.
  • China’s embassy in South Korea stopped issuing short-term visas for Korean citizens visiting China and said it will adjust policy subject to the lifting of South Korea’s discriminatory entry restrictions against China, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the embassies in Japan took the same step.
  • China’s State Planner publishes registration rules for mid- & long-term foreign borrowings by companies, aimed at promoting orderly offshore financing.
  • PBoC is to increase financial support for domestic demand and the supply system, to guide the balance sheets of high-quality real estate enterprises back to a safe range, ensure steady and orderly property financing.

European bourses are underpressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow. US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell. Amazon (AMZN) intends to close three UK warehouses (will impact 1,200 jobs), according to the PA.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Schnabel says greening monetary policy requires structural changes to our monetary policy framework rather than adjustments to our reaction function. Preliminary inflation data for December point to a persistent build-up of underlying price pressures even as energy price inflation has started to subside. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive.
  • Adyen, Nexi to Be Hit by Weaker Card Spending, Barclays Says
  • Teneo Is Said to Near Deal to Buy British PR Firm Tulchan
  • RBC Sees Good Growth For European Luxury and Premium Brands
  • Uniper Says CEO and COO to Resign After Government Takeover

FX

  • Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
  • Kiwi marginally outperforming as Aussie retreats with Yuan after some Chinese officials warn about 2-way volatility in 2023.
  • AUD/NZD cross reverses towards 1.0800 from 1.0860+, USD/CNH bounces from 6.7585 to almost 6.8000.
  • Euro consolidates on a 1.0700 handle vs Buck, but Pound runs into resistance pips from 1.2200
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7611 vs exp. 6.7613 (prev. 6.8265)

Fixed Income

  • Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
  • Bunds sub-137.00 and very close to Monday’s base, Gilts mostly under 102.00 and T-note below par within a 114-19+/11 range.
  • Focus on Central Bank speakers at a Riksbank symposium where ECB’s Schnabel has already been hawkish.
  • Saudi Arabia has begun marketing a three-part USD bond, via Bloomberg.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
  • Barclays remains constructive on the space reiterating its Brent 2023 forecast of USD 98/bbl; writing there is the potential for USD 15-25/bbl of downside if the slump in global manufacturing worsens..
  • Goldman Sachs cut its Summer 2023 TTF price forecast by EUR 80 to EUR 100/MWh, citing exceptionally warm realised and forecast weather, as well as strong energy conservation.
  • Iraq’s December crude production was unchanged from November at 4.43mln BPD; in-line with its OPEC+ quota.
  • Large Chinese nickel producer Tsingshan is in talks with struggling Chinese copper plants regarding processing its material which could double Chinese refined nickel output this year, according to Mining.com.
  • LME says further work will be required to prepare and communicate to the market a detailed implementation plan re. the Oliver Wydman review.
  • Spot gold and silver are diverging a touch and remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark in similarly narrow ranges, base metals are generally contained though the negative APAC bias remains in play.

Geopolitics

  • US Pentagon is mulling sending Stryker armoured vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Politico.
  • UK is willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine with PM Sunak supportive of Challenger II supply that could provide Ukrainian President Zelensky with a ‘knockout punch’, according to The Telegraph.
  • Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says Moscow will develop its nuclear triad and be the main guarantee of Russian sovereignty, according to Interfax.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: Dec. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.8; est. 91.5, prior 91.9
  • 10:00: Nov. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
  • 10:00: Nov. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 05:10: Bailey, Schnabel, Macklem Speak in Stockholm
  • 09:00: Powell Discusses Central Bank Independence at Riksbank Event

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets looked set to start the week off with a positive start across the globe yesterday until the last hurdle as the S&P 500 slipped around 1.5% from the European close to end -0.07%. The narrative explaining the reversal centred around more hawkish Fed speak but short-end markets didn’t move at all over this period so one has to be cautious on the reasons for the dip.

For the record though, Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that the Fed was committed to raising interest rates into a “5-5.25% range” and then holding there through 2024 in order to stamp down on excess demand in the economy. The length of time and the implication that rate cuts were not imminent seems to have been what the market grabbed on to, and this mirrors the comments from the FOMC minutes earlier this month, which indicated the Fed’s concern over a “pause” being mistaken by the market as a “pivot”. Bostic also was in favour of slowing rate hikes to 25bps in February if the inflation print on Thursday showed consumer prices cooling after the payrolls data last Friday showed slowing wage growth. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that she expected the fed funds rate to reach above 5% but that the final level is dependent on incoming inflation data, while highlighting how core services ex-housing has been a persistent source of pricing pressures. Neither Fed presidents are voting members this year, but offer a window into the FOMC’s thinking but as we said, Fed pricing was also little changed after these comments.

Those remarks come ahead of Fed Chair Powell today, who’ll be speaking at an event on central bank independence at 14:00 London time. It’s uncertain whether the topic in question will lead to an in-depth policy discussion, but if we do get any, a key question will be whether he entertains the prospect of a further downshift in the pace of rate hikes to 25bps. That’s currently the base case in markets, but clearly the CPI release on Thursday will be an influence on this and to future FOMC meetings too.

Most of the US session was more about pricing in less Fed hikes over the coming months with the 10yr yield down -2.59bps to 3.532% (fairly flat in Asia this morning). Investors also continued to downgrade their expectations for further hikes from the Fed, with the year-end rate at just 4.44%, down -4.2bps on the day. Those moves were given a further boost by data from the New York Fed, whose data on inflation expectations showed that 1yr expectations fell to a 17-month low in December of 5.0%. That said, the news wasn’t quite as positive when it came to longer time horizons, with 3yr expectations remaining at 3.0%, and 5yr expectations ticking up a tenth to 2.4%.

Even though US equities gave up gains, Tech stocks outperformed with yields lower, with both the NASDAQ (+0.63%) and particularly the FANG+ index (+2.41%) holding on to larger gains. Tesla (+5.9%) was the best performing member of the large-cap index and reduced its YTD losses to -2.77%. And back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.88%) continued to move higher, bringing its 2023 YTD gains to +5.52%, and marking out European equities as one of the top 2023 performers so far.

However, one area that struggled yesterday were European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.8bps) and OATs (+1.1bps) both rising, even if both had come off their earlier session highs. That followed data showing that Euro Area unemployment remained at a record low of 6.5% in November, which points to a historically tight labour market that could lead to further wage and hence inflationary pressures. Gilts were one of the biggest underperformers, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps on the day amidst a speech from BoE chief economist Pill. In his remarks, he said that “the distinctive context that prevails in the UK… creates the potential for inflation to prove more persistent”.

In terms of currencies, the US Dollar index (-0.85%) weakened to its lowest level since early June, which brings its declines to almost -10% (-9.73%) since its peak in late-September, back when the UK mini-budget turmoil was at its height and global markets were selling off more broadly. This decline in the dollar very much leans into our strategists’ latest FX blueprint, where they write that various forces such as a reversal in the European energy shock and the economic reopening in China have bearish implications for the dollar with a target of $1.15 by year-end (current $1.07). You can read their full piece here.

That dollar weakness went hand-in-hand with noticeably tighter CDS spreads for most of the day, hitting levels we haven’t seen in months. For instance in Europe, the iTraxx Crossover tightened -8.4bps to 417bps, meaning it’s now more than -250bps beneath its own peak in late-September and the tightest since April. Meanwhile in the US, the CDX HY spread was down -10bps to 438bps at one point, its tightest level since August, before the late turn in risk assets saw CDX HY spreads wider (+1.9bps) on the day. A reminder that we revised our already bullish Euro Q1 credit spreads forecasts tighter over the weekend. See the piece here.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.34%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.18%) and the CSI (-0.10%) lower whilst the KOSPI (+0.31%) and Nikkei (+0.76%) are edging higher with the latter reopening following a public holiday. DM stock futures are pricing in a weaker start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.28%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) and the DAX (-0.85%) all trading in the red.

Early morning data showed broadening signs of inflationary pressures in Japan after Tokyo’s core consumer prices advanced +4.0% y/y in December – the fastest pace in four decades and beating market expectations of a +3.8% gain and against a +3.6% increase last month. With the core inflation figure staying above the BOJ’s 2% price target for the seventh consecutive month, it further heightens the possibility of an additional rise in the nationwide CPI.

There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday, although German industrial production grew by +0.2% in November (vs. +0.3% expected), and the previous month’s decline was revised to show a larger -0.4% contraction (vs. -0.1% previously).

To the day ahead now, and there are an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, BoE Governor Bailey, BoJ Governor Kuroda, BoC Governor Macklem, and the ECB’s Schnabel, De Cos, and Knot. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for November, and in the US there’s the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Tepid APAC tone continues with fresh drivers somewhat limited pre-Powell – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 06:32 AM

  • European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow.
  • Goldman Sachs lifts its 2023 EZ GDP forecast to 0.6% (prev. -0.1%), no longer expects a euro-area recession.
  • US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell; newsquawk primer available.
  • Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
  • Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
  • Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include a speech from Fed’s Powell & supply from the US.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are underpressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, in a continuation of the tepid APAC tone amid minimal newsflow.
  • US futures are similarly contained and are diverging slightly around the unchanged mark pre-Powell.
  • Amazon (AMZN) intends to close three UK warehouses (will impact 1,200 jobs), according to the PA.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Dollar is trying to regroup ahead of Fed Chair Powell, but DXY is heavy on the 103.000 handle and mixed vs majors.
  • Kiwi marginally outperforming as Aussie retreats with Yuan after some Chinese officials warn about 2-way volatility in 2023.
  • AUD/NZD cross reverses towards 1.0800 from 1.0860+, USD/CNH bounces from 6.7585 to almost 6.8000.
  • Euro consolidates on a 1.0700 handle vs Buck, but Pound runs into resistance pips from 1.2200
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7611 vs exp. 6.7613 (prev. 6.8265)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds retreat further from peaks in consolidation and consideration of heavy conventional and syndicated issuance.
  • Bunds sub-137.00 and very close to Monday’s base, Gilts mostly under 102.00 and T-note below par within a 114-19+/11 range.
  • Focus on Central Bank speakers at a Riksbank symposium where ECB’s Schnabel has already been hawkish.
  • Saudi Arabia has begun marketing a three-part USD bond, via Bloomberg.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning little changed, but have recently broken out of and eclipsed initial parameters, with upside of circa. USD 0.50/bbl as such.
  • Barclays remains constructive on the space reiterating its Brent 2023 forecast of USD 98/bbl; writing there is the potential for USD 15-25/bbl of downside if the slump in global manufacturing worsens..
  • Goldman Sachs cut its Summer 2023 TTF price forecast by EUR 80 to EUR 100/MWh, citing exceptionally warm realised and forecast weather, as well as strong energy conservation.
  • Iraq’s December crude production was unchanged from November at 4.43mln BPD; in-line with its OPEC+ quota.
  • Large Chinese nickel producer Tsingshan is in talks with struggling Chinese copper plants regarding processing its material which could double Chinese refined nickel output this year, according to Mining.com.
  • LME says further work will be required to prepare and communicate to the market a detailed implementation plan re. the Oliver Wydman review.
  • Spot gold and silver are diverging a touch and remain in close proximity to the unchanged mark in similarly narrow ranges, base metals are generally contained though the negative APAC bias remains in play.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Goldman Sachs lifts its 2023 EZ GDP forecast to 0.6% (prev. -0.1%), no longer expects a euro-area recession.
  • ECB’s Schnabel says greening monetary policy requires structural changes to our monetary policy framework rather than adjustments to our reaction function. Preliminary inflation data for December point to a persistent build-up of underlying price pressures even as energy price inflation has started to subside. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive.
  • WHO Emergency Committee to meet re. COVID on January 27th.

NOTABLE DATA

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Dec) 89.8 (Prev. 91.9)
  • UK BRC Retail Sales Like-For-Like YY (Dec) 6.5% (Prev. 4.1%); Total Sales YY (Dec) 6.9% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Barclaycard UK December consumer spending rose 4.4% Y/Y.
  • Norwegian Consumer Price Index MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%); YY (Dec) 5.9% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 6.5%)
  • Norwegian Core Inflation MM (Dec) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%); YY (Dec) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.7%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.
  • Click here for the Fed Chair Powell primer.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US Pentagon is mulling sending Stryker armoured vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Politico.
  • UK is willing to send battle tanks to Ukraine with PM Sunak supportive of Challenger II supply that could provide Ukrainian President Zelensky with a ‘knockout punch’, according to The Telegraph.
  • Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says Moscow will develop its nuclear triad and be the main guarantee of Russian sovereignty, according to Interfax.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is support above the USD 17k mark, holding towards the top-end of USD 17133-17294 parameters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the risk appetite in the region stalled following a similar handover from Wall St where the major indices failed to sustain early gains despite a further dovish Fed repricing.
  • ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in industrials and mining stocks, although price action was rangebound amid the lack of any major fresh drivers.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed as it played catch-up to Monday’s advances on return from the extended weekend but with upside capped as participants also reflected on weak Household Spending and firm Tokyo CPI data releases.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the border reopening euphoria faded and despite reports that China will cut VAT for small businesses, while the PBoC also continued to drain liquidity.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese state media noted that the COVID-19 wave is past its peak in many parts of China.
  • China’s embassy in South Korea stopped issuing short-term visas for Korean citizens visiting China and said it will adjust policy subject to the lifting of South Korea’s discriminatory entry restrictions against China, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the embassies in Japan took the same step.
  • China’s State Planner publishes registration rules for mid- & long-term foreign borrowings by companies, aimed at promoting orderly offshore financing.
  • PBoC is to increase financial support for domestic demand and the supply system, to guide the balance sheets of high-quality real estate enterprises back to a safe range, ensure steady and orderly property financing.

DATA RECAP

  • Tokyo CPI YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.8%)
  • Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.6%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Dec) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Japanese All Household Spending MM (Nov) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%); YY (Nov) -1.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.2%)

1.c TUESDAY/  MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 56.85 PTS OR 0.27%     /The Nikkei closed UP 201/71 PTS OR .78%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7814//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7979//    /Oil DOWN TO 75.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.88   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

2B JAPAN

Japan

end

3c CHINA /

CHINA/RUSSIA/BRI

END

CHINA/USA/RUSSIA/GLOBE

.

end

CHINA/TAIWAN

end

CHINA/COVID

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

SWEDEN/TURKEY/NATO

This is nuts:  Turkey must be thrown out of NATO despite INCIRLIK

(/Smith/NakedCapitalism)

Sweden Won’t Meet Turkey Demands To Win Its Vote On NATO Membership

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

Ooh, things are getting to be fun! Nothing like watching geopolitical jousting out in the open. Here, we have the US (and NATO) attempting to push around Türkiye, a country that holds far too many cards to meekly accept Western dictates. The immediate contratemps that has just heated up is Türkiye’s threat to block Sweden’s bid to join NATO, which any NATO member can bar. Türkiye demanded that Sweden stop supporting what Türkiye deems to be Kurdish terrorists and made specific requests, including extraditions. It seemed highly unlikely that Sweden would be willing to accede to all of Türkiye’s demands, and Sweden just said so:

Conventional wisdom is that Türkiye will eventually knuckle under and will waive Finland and Sweden in. It would be too monstrously embarrassing and would worsen rifts in the bloc otherwise. But Türkiye will need some sort of bribe to go along. And is has to be visible for the sake of Erdogan depicting that he go something in return for his partial climbdown on his Kurdish terrorist position. But what might that sweetener be?

If you were to read only, say, the likes of the Economist, you’d have the strong impression that Türkiye was a vassal state that doesn’t know its place.

For those of you new to this plot line, NATO offered super duper expedited membership to Sweden and Finland. NATO acted as if the two Nordic states would be voted in quickly. Türkiye almost as quickly said it would refuse to accept their application, but backed right before an end-of-June NATO meeting. From the Guardian:

After a period of intensive negotiations, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said on Tuesday evening: “I am pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join Nato.”

“Turkey, Finland and Sweden have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey’s concerns, including around arms exports and the fight against terrorism,” he added….

[Swedish Prime Minister Magdelena] Andersson said she had shown the Turkish leader changes in Sweden’s terrorism legislation set to come into force next month.

“And of course, we will continue our fight against terrorism and as Nato members also do so with closer cooperation with Turkey,” the Swedish premier said.

NATO and EU leaders acted as if everything was settled. But voting on accepting the application and voting to approve membership are two different matters. Türkiye and Hungary have not yet approved the Sweden/Finland ascension (Hungary’s is allegedly because its Parliament hasn’t gotten to it yet, but some commentators contend pro-Russian officials are throwing sand in the gears).

Erdogan held back Türkiye’s approval for Sweden because he wanted to see performance on Sweden’s commitments. One of Edogan’s asks that Sweden agreed to, which at the time struck me as something Sweden either would or could not deliver on, was the extradition of specific individuals. From EUObserver:

Turkey has demanded Sweden extradite 33 Kurdish separatists and people linked to “FETÖ” — Ankara’s name for followers of Fethullah Gülen, a US-based Muslim leader, whom Erdoğan blames for organising a failed coup in 2016.

Sweden has so far extradited two.

In fact, Sweden had signaled that it was unlikely to comply much if at all with the extradition part of the deal. Again from EUObserver:

“The Swedish government must comply with Swedish and international law in extradition matters, which is also made clear in the trilateral agreement,” Sweden said, referring to a three-way accord on Nato enlargement with Finland and Turkey.

The agreement to secure Türkiye’s vote for Sweden blew up over the attempt to extradite a publisher who is part of Fethullah Gülen and Erdogan sees as an important figure in the coup attempt against him. From Associated Press:

Sweden’s top court on Monday rejected an extradition request for a man wanted by Turkey, saying the Scandinavian country does not criminalize the act he is accused of committing.

In a statement, the Swedish Supreme Court said there were “obstacles to extradition because it is a matter of so-called political crimes, i.e. crimes that are directed against the state and that are political in nature.”

The court in Stockholm said there was “a risk of persecution based on the person’s political views” if he were returned to Turkey.

The court did not name the man who was the subject of Turkey’s request. Swedish news agency TT identified him as Bulent Kenes and said the Turkish government wants him in connection with a 2016 coup attempt.

Erdogan has made clear that Kenes was a priority. Again from Associated Press:

Erdogan singled Kenes out last month during a joint news conference with the Swedish prime minister in Ankara.

“There is one member of the (Gulen) terrorist organization in Sweden, whose name I will give: Bulent Kenes,” Erdogan said. “For example, the deportation of this terrorist to Turkey is of great importance to us, and we of course want Sweden to act with more sensitivity (on the issue).”

And in a development that doesn’t seem to have gotten much notice in the press, Erdogan raised his demands after the Kenes ruling. From the Stockholm Center for Freedom, four days after the Supreme Court ruling:

Turkish authorities have expanded the list of people, the majority of them political dissidents, whose extradition is demanded from Sweden, increasing the number from 33 to 42, Turkish Minute reported, citing Radio Sweden.

Sweden and Finland broke with decades of military non-alignment and applied to join NATO in response to Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine. Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO members yet to ratify the Nordic neighbors’ applications.

Turkey has accused Finland and Sweden, in particular, of providing a safe haven for outlawed Kurdish groups it deems “terrorists” as well as some political dissidents and has refrained from ratifying their NATO bids despite an agreement in Madrid in June.

According to Radio Sweden, the Turkish government’s list of people whose extradition is demanded from Sweden includes 16 alleged members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), 12 people with alleged links to the faith-based Gülen movement and seven people from leftist groups in addition to seven people who are accused of such crimes as smuggling.

Oddly, the article does not point out that the PKK is a recognized terrorist organization; the US put PKK on its list the same day it added Hezbollah and Shining Path. One would assume extraditing them plus the accused smugglers would be viable.1

However, Sweden said it is done with catering to Türkiye to get its NATO vote. From the Financial Times:

Sweden has said Turkey is demanding concessions that Stockholm cannot give to approve its application to join Nato as the prime minister insisted the country had done all it could to meet Ankara’s concerns.

Ulf Kristersson, the new centre-right leader, on Sunday threw down the gauntlet to Turkey in the clearest indication yet from Stockholm that it could do no more to help persuade Turkey to drop its opposition to Sweden and neighbouring Finland joining the western military alliance.

“Turkey confirms that we have done what we said we would do. But they also say that they want things that we can’t and won’t give them. So the decision is now with Turkey,” Kristersson told a Swedish defence conference.

Sweden is rubbing salt in Türkiye’s wound by misrepresenting what its Foreign Minister said. From Reuters in Turkey calls for more action from Sweden on extradition for NATO backing, three days after the Supreme Court ruling that blocked Kenes’ extradition:

[Foreign Minister Mevlut] Cavusoglu said Turkey appreciated Sweden’s steps so far. “However, there is no concrete development regarding the extradition of terrorism-related criminals and the freezing of their assets,” he said….

“If Sweden wants to be a NATO ally, we have to see concrete cooperation. The negotiations are carried out in a positive atmosphere, but the denial of extradition of Kenes has intoxicated this atmosphere,” Cavusoglu said at the press meet.

In other words, Türkiye clearly reminded Sweden that it had not delivered on its commitments. Türkiye reminded Sweden that it needed to follow through to get Türkiye’s NATO vote. But Sweden is now trying to present Türkiye as somehow having come around to Sweden’s position.

Where is the counter-offer? At a minimum, it sure looks like 23 people were good candidates for extradition. Using a high-profile single case as a basis for dropping the entire matter looks like bad faith. After all, 2/3 of the attempts so far had succeeded.

This is a very long winded introduction to a key point, that Türkiye has tons of leverage and therefore has and will continue to play the Collective West off against the rest of the world. The only way that stops would be if NATO manages to do an own goal on the order of the anti-Russia economic sanctions and gets Türkiye to hike out of NATO. There’s no process for removing a NATO member2 Türkiye very very much likes the advantage it gets against Russia by being in NATO, so it is extremely unlikely that Türkiye would depart of its own accord.

So Türkiye in NATO looks increasingly like those old pre-nup marriages, where both parties really would like to be done with each other but can’t afford to get divorced.3 Türkiye’s assets include:

The Dardanelles

Second biggest NATO army, and the biggest in the European theater:

Incirlik Air Base. This is the airbase the US uses for Middle Eastern operations. And reflecting Türkiye’s position, it’s not run on normal US-as-occupier airbase lines. From MilitaryBases.com:

The base is in Turkey, which means that it is operated by both the US and the Turkish governments, unlike other co-bases. Most other military installations are operated by the US government, but under the regulation of the hosting government.

Incirlik has held (as of 2016) and may still hold as many as 50 hydrogen warheads.

Things started to go very pear shaped with the US after the 2016 coup attempt. Aljazeera gives a very good overview. Erdogan is very unhappy that the US has refused to extradite Fethullah Gulen. While Türkiye apparently has not come up with strong enough evidence of Gulen’s personal involvement, it’s not hard to see that a Muslim cleric in the normally not very Muslim-friendly US having a very lavish compound would generate suspicion back home.

This is far from a complete list of dust-ups since then:

Calls in 2016 for Türkiye to be expelled from NATO due to its ouster of Gulen allies (mind you, the purge had started in 2013 but intensified greatly after the coup attempt)

Türkiye ordering Russian S-400 air-defense systems, now twice, leading the US to cancel F-35 sales to Türkiye.4 That might seem like a gift except Türkiye is listed as a funder of the program, which at a minimum means having invested in factories to make some parts. Note that Türkiye signed the deal in 2017. The US cut Türkiye out of the F-35 program the month after Türkiye accepted the first delivery, in 2019. The Trump Administration imposed additional sanctions on Türkiye in December 2020.

The afore-alluded-to 2019 fury when Türkiye launched Operation Spring, against Kurdish (as in American-backed) forces in Syria. Erdogan poured gas on the fire by threatening to stop barring Syrian refugees from entering Europe if he wasn’t allowed to have his way.

Türkiye making some of the right noises about Russia’s conflict in Ukraine but still maintaining and even expanding relations with Russia. Ankara has been explicit: Ukraine and Russia are neighbors and it intends to stay on good terms with both. Türkiye did supply Ukraine with much-touted Bayrakter drones….that wound up big time underperforming. And as we’ll flesh out a bit more below, the Collective West regards Türkiye as not doing its part to support the war against Russia.

However, Türkiye entered into a big economic deal with Russia. The West has tried to block some elements, such as Türkiye banks accepting the Mir card. Türkiye and Russia expect to have work-arounds in place by summer 2023.

The West also can’t be happy at the prospect of Syria and Türkiye teaming up, with Russia helping to broker the deal, to go against “terrorists” which will include pretty much all of the US cat’s paws.

On the Türkiye side, I suspect but can’t prove that one of the reasons for its tart opposition to the Sweden/Finland membership offers was that it was not consulted in advance.

Today, Conor Gallagher provides an important, long-form treatment of a development that Türkiye regards in and of itself as a huge betrayal: the US working with Greece to place missiles on Aegean islands that by treaty were pledged to stay unarmed. The US rationale is that Türkiye has not been an aggressive enough NATO operative, for instance, in its refusal to let warships enter the Black Sea, and more generally, declining to operate as a US/NATO hub in the war, so it is using Greece to get at Moscow. But Türkiye has repeatedly complained that it is also in Greek crosshairs, and Conor and other analysts believe the US moves are meant to punish pressure Türkiye.

Erdogan has reacted in his typical very impolitic manner, leading to further harrumphing that his words prove he’s not a fit member of civilized society. From the Express in mid-December:

Speaking during a town hall meeting with youths in the northern Turkish city of Samsun on Saturday, Erdogan said Turkey had begun making its own short-range ballistic missiles called Tayfun, which, he said, was “frightening the Greeks.”

”(The Greeks) say ‘It can hit Athens’,” said Erdogan, whose comments were aired late Sunday.

He added: “Of course it will. If you don’t stay calm, if you try to buy things from the United States and other places (to arm) the islands, a country like Turkey … has to do something.”

Let’s return to the headline issue: will this Türkiye threat over Sweden just prove to be a show of bluster, as most of the press has been treating it (as well as NATO itself, which has been inviting Sweden and Finland to meetings and extending other privileges normally afforded only to members)? In light of all of the above, that may not be such a safe bet.

Türkiye, interestingly like India, has been trying to navigated a geopolitically independent, self-interested course. But India is not a key member of a US dominated security alliance.

It is hard to calibrate Türkiye messaging compared to its intent. If Türkiye regards the arming of Greece as a serious security threat, which seems likely, it is logical to assume that Türkiye will continue to withhold its approval of Sweden and Finland until the US winds that program back at least to a degree. It’s a clear leverage point on a matter to which the West has hopelessly committed itself.5

However, the US has likely convinced itself that using Greece to mount a joint threat against Russia and Türkiye is strategically necessary. And since it is becoming hard to paper over that the Ukraine war is not going well (witness, for instance the recent Washington Post op-ed by Condoleeza Rice and Robert Gates, Time is not on Ukraine’s side), the US is likely to engage in displacement: since it isn’t getting what it wants in Ukraine, it is going to make damned sure it gets what it wants elsewhere. That means NATO expansion among other things. The odds appear high that the US would regard Türkiye as intransigent and at a time when it feels it can’t afford even an optical setback, as in further delay in getting the Nordic nations in NATO. But instead of giving Türkiye a sweetener, the US and NATO have been big on sticks. So I would expect things to get worse before they get better on this front. And they may not get better.

END

SWITZERLAND//SNB

The SNB lost 143 billion dollars last year

(zerohedge)

Massive Hedge Fund, Also Known As Swiss National Bank, Suffers Colossal $143 Billion Loss In 2022

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 06:55 AM

The last time we looked at the massive money-printing (literally) hedge fund that also moonlights as the Swiss National Bank, we were stunned to learn that its US equity holdings had exploded to a record $177 billion at the end of Q1 2022, orders of magnitude more than the mere $27 billion it held as recently as 2014.

Since then things haven’t gone exactly as planned for the massive asset gatherer, and the value of its US equity longs has tumbled by almost $50 billion from the record high in Q1 to $139.8 billion as of Q3, a two year low… and a huge loss despite the fact that all the SNB has to do is print some more Swiss Francs, sell them for dollars and then simply buy some more stonks to plug whatever P&L holes it has. 

But while we wait for the SNB’s year-end 13F which should be published in about a month’s time, we already know the damage suffered by the Swiss hedge fund in 2021 and it is staggering: on Monday, the SNB reported an annual loss of 132 billion Swiss francs, or $143 billion, for fiscal 2022, the biggest loss in its 115-year history as falling stock and fixed-income markets hit the value of its share and bond portfolio. The recent drop in the US Dollar also did not help.

Monday’s provisional figure, which marked a reverse from a 26 billion franc profit in 2021, was far bigger than the previous record loss of 23 billion francs chalked up in 2015, and according to Reuters, it is equivalent to slightly more than the annual GDP of Morocco.

According to the bank, the bulk of the loss, or 131 billion francs, was from its foreign currency positions – a broad term used to describe the more than 800 billion francs in stocks and bonds the SNB bought during a long campaign to weaken the Swiss franc. Indicatively, the amount is also almost precisely the same as the GDP of Switzerland.

The losses accelerated as global stock and bond markets tumbled in unison – 2022 was the first year in over a century when both stock and bond market suffered double digit losses – as central banks around the world, including the SNB, hiked interest rates to combat inflation. Meanwhile, the strong Swiss franc – which rose above parity against the euro in July – also led to exchange rate-related losses.

And while the SNB lost money in pretty much everything there was one solitary asset class that generated a profit (take a wild guess which one): that’s right, the SNB’s gold holdings which stood at 1,040 tonnes at the end of 2021, gained 400 million francs in value during 2022.

The 2022 loss meant the central bank will not make its usual payout to the Swiss central and regional governments, it said. Last year the SNB paid out 6 billion francs. In fact, if the SNB followed similar accounting rules and logic as any other bank, it would have been wiped out with a loss that obliterated all of its equity capital. But in the magical world of seigniorage, where central banks are assumed to be able to print – again, literally – their way out of everything, the bank never loses and the SNB will continue its merry existence as if nothing happened.

Still, the loss is unlikely to have an impact on SNB policy. It hiked interest rates three times in 2022 as Chairman Thomas Jordan moved to stem high Swiss inflation, analysts said.

“The SNB’s colossal losses will not change its monetary policy at all,” said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin. “The high reputation of the SNB helps that it doesn’t have to change anything.”

Well, it may have a record loss that’s bigger than the GDP of most medium-sized countries, but at least it has its “high reputation” earned courtesy of years of laborious and exhausting… money printing. And yes, because we live in a kangaroo world in which there are never any adverse consequences for colossal central bank stupidity, the SNB’s monetary policy will most certainly not change at all.

end

GERMANY/UKRAINIANS

How long can Germany keep this up?

Robert Hryniak12:45 PM (52 minutes ago)
to

There are up to 1 million Ukrainians coming to Germany, and they are alowed to stay and get money from German government. 

Until November 2021, 85 000 people from Ukraine came to Berlin as refugees, only a thousand Ukrainians in Berlin are working. Germany has no place for more refugees. There are lots of Ukrainian men among the refugees as well. Lots of Roma people are coming as Ukrainian refugees but in reality they are from the Balkans. Also thousands of black people come from Ukraine as refugees calling themselves ”students”. 

EU is paying for the transportation of wounded soldiers to German hospitals. Treatment of Ukrainian soldiers is paid by the German health insurance. As long as these Neocon parties are in power, German will send more weapons, even for 20 years. It is a vassal of America. Disagree, then ask yourself why how and why Jake Sullivan demands that Italy send its’ best air defense systems for free to Ukraine? Not that it will change anything but it is better than the Patriot system. 

Can there be government change in the US? Maybe the USA loses the interest to fight war in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine is possible to solve only in diplomatic way. Ukraine needs to start diplomatic initiative, not just for itself but for Europe too. And the fools who lend money will take a write down. As for the Ukraine the population has been reduced to 18-20 million now. It will never recover.

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/RUSSIA//SYRIA/USA/UAE

This is bothering the uSA to no end:  Erdogan hints at a Assad meeting amid Moscow reconciliation talks.  Tom Luongo discussed this very topic with us yesterday

(the Cradle)

US Alarmed As Erdogan Hints At Assad Meeting Amid Moscow Reconciliation Talks

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Via The Cradle,

During a speech in Ankara last Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that a meeting with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad may soon take place, “as part of efforts for peace.” He added that a tripartite meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Russia and Syria is scheduled to be held in the near future for the first time since 2011.

Erdogan said, “As Russia-Turkey-Syria, we have launched a process through the meeting of our intelligence chiefs and defense ministers in Moscow. Then, God willing, we will bring our foreign ministers together trilaterally. Then, depending on the developments, we will come together as leaders.”Via Reuters

The upcoming meeting aims to enhance communication after Russian-sponsored talks between the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers were held in Moscow on 28 December. The meeting was the highest-level of official meetings between Ankara and Damascus since the start of the Syrian war.

In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 5 January, Erdogan called on the Syrian government to ‘take the steps to achieve a tangible solution concerning the case of Syria.”

The US sis seeking to establish a middle ground between Ankara and the SDF in order to prevent Turkish-Syrian reconciliation.

The Syrian-Turkish rapprochement via declared Russian mediation was paralleled by Emirati-Syrian rapprochement – the latest of which was a “brotherly” meeting aimed at strengthening cooperation and restoring historical relations between Assad and Foreign Minister of the UAE Abdallah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, according to SANA.

Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported that the UAE seeks “to join Russia in sponsoring Syrian-Turkish relations at a high level,” noting that the Emirati foreign minister’s visit to Damascus sought to arrange Turkiye’s participation in the tripartite meeting of Syrian-Turkish-Russian foreign ministers, making it a quadripartite meeting.

The meeting is meant to pave the way for a presidential meeting between Erdogan and Assad in the presence of Putin. Reportedly, the UAE has offered to host this summit, with a possibility of a high-level UAE official being present at the meeting if it will be held in Moscow.

Asharq Al-Awsat added that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu plans to visit Washington on 16-17 January to brief US officials on the developments of Turkish-Syrian normalization, his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mikdad, and the “roadmap” sponsored by Moscow in the context of security, military, political and economic fields – as agreed upon by the defense ministers as well as the intelligence chiefs in Syria, Turkiye and Russia over the past weeks.

As Turkey has been launching successive operations against Kurdish groups both on the Turkish-Syrian border as well as within Syria itself under ‘Operation Claw Sword,’ a Western official informed Asharq Al-Awsat that a high-ranking US official will be visiting Ankara in the coming hours as part of efforts to mediate between Turkiye and the SDF in northeastern Syria.

Ankara has demanded that Moscow and Washington commit to the implementation of the bilateral military agreements signed at the end of 2019. The agreements stipulate the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to beyond 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, and from the areas of Manbij and Tal Rifaat, in addition to the withdrawal of all heavy weaponry.

The SDF says that it has fulfilled its obligations, and will not withdraw its police force – known as the Asayish – nor dismantle its local councils, despite Turkiye’s insistence on dissolving all Kurdish military and civil institutions in the area.

Meanwhile, Cavusoglu told media on 29 December that Ankara is willing to withdraw from the territory it occupies in northern Syria and hand it over to Damascus in the event that “political stability” is reached – after cooperation in “neutralizing ISIS members, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the YPG.”

The Saudi newspaper’s report stated that US mediation seeks to reach a “compromise” between the Kurdish groups and Ankara without a new Turkish incursion taking place ahead of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections in mid-2023. This mediation seems to be an attempt at circumventing the imminent Syrian-Turkish reconciliation.

Another official source disclosed that Ankara was “uncomfortable with the leaks following the meeting of the Syrian, Turkish and Russian defense ministers in Moscow, and that it had agreed to a full withdrawal.” However, the source confirmed that, “it is true that Ankara and Damascus consider the PKK a common threat, and will work against any separatist agenda, because it is an existential threat to both countries,” adding that the two countries will “work to open the Aleppo-Latakia Highway.”

Following the UAE’s visit to Damascus, which came after the US called on its allies and international partners to refrain from normalizing ties with SyriaAsharq Al-Awsat quoted an official as saying that the US has been the only western country to issue a statement against normalization, and is working alongside Paris, Berlin, and London to assume a united stance against normalization with Syria.

Communication is currently underway for a meeting between the representatives of Paris, Berlin, London, and Washington and UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pederson in Geneva on 23 January. This meeting will take place before Pedersen’s visit to Damascus to meet with the Syrian foreign minister to “confirm the position against normalization, and support the provision of funding for electricity projects within the timeline of early recovery,” stipulated by a resolution for international aid that will be extended before 10 January.

Asharq Al-Awsat said that the UAE has proposed to contribute to the funding of economic and electrical projects in Syria – within the confines of the Caesar Act.

Simultaneously, Jordan, who was the first to open high-level channels of communication with Damascus, is leading efforts alongside other Arab countries to reach a “united Arab position that defines Arab demands in order to make normalization possible.”

The newspaper quoted another western official as saying that Jordan is calling for coordination to put pressure on Damascus to provide political and geopolitical steps for the coming phase in southern Syria, as Amman confirmed that there has been an increase in the smuggling of Captagon, weapons and ammunition across the Syrian border following the start of the normalization process. Additionally, Amman has said that the Iranian presence in southern Syria near the Jordanian border has not diminished, and that there has been an expansion of ISIS activity in the area, according to the official.

Syria’s Arab League membership was suspended in November of 2011 following the start of the Syrian war, and it has been excluded ever since.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Ukrainian dominoes fall: Russians sweep Soledar and enter Blagodatnoye, Paraskovievka – Seversk-Bakhmut-Slaviansk communications cut off – WarNews247

Robert Hryniak10:32 AM (3 hours ago)
to

The reality is that the Russian meat grinder is slowly advancing with a combined Integration of artillery, robotics, drones and common weaponry deployment. This is what modern war is about. IT IS NOT what Ukrainians have trained for. Nor is it a killing field by superior NATO weaponry against a sandaled ill equipped opponent, like in Afghanistan ( which America lost). Rather this is a conflict with what is a peer or superior opponent with advantages in all manner of equipment. It is actually a painful event because the outcome can be forecast with stark clarity.

So why does anyone expect anything more or less than defeat on the battlefield? In the past i have written about how both sides are using the fighting to develop newer systems to gain advantage/ the key differences are in the fact that Russia is and has developed counter measures to the equipment being sent faster than any new advances by the West, who lacks a war time production capacity. Therefore, new targeting systems like “Penicillin” ( picks up HIMAR and the like within 2 minutes with a targeting solution sent to artillery batteries) are deadly and effective. It helps the Ukies sold a HIMAR system to the Russians for $100,000 so they could take it apart and study it. And now that South Korea has sent its’ artillery shells,  Pakistani comes up next for delivery to Ukraine of another 159 containers of shells by boat. Does anyone not understand that it will be a Russian decision as to whether these containers make to front lines as a calculation of how many need to die? Surely, Russia can destroy such supply at will.

While there may be a winter campaign by the Russians, one might opinion, better to let NATO and America to come forth to be gutted in old style war tactics that do not work on a modern battlefield. This is lost cause regardless, that will only kill many more soldiers and civilians in days to come. And continue to exhaust Europe through ongoing sanctions.

And while one wonders about the wisdom of projected hegemony failing in real time. The fact that American borders go undefended against a gang war occurring in Mexico is really crazy. What few people know is that the Chinese military has taken over part of the Mexican drug business and is pushing its’ production into America and Canada fighting with local Mexican gangs. Chinese military guard these production facilities. One would think this would be more pressing a American priority than trying to fight a proxy war with Russia that America cannot win. What can occur as it is now that Ukraine gets exhausted with Poland stepping up to be the next sacrifice on the altar of collapsing hegemony.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses: Pidhorodne and Krasnaya Gora fell in Bakhmut – Ukrainian soldier: “The situation is dramatic” – WarNews247

Robert Hryniak10:38 AM (2 hours ago)
to

Soon the whole line will collapse … new Ukrainian recruits last 6 days on the front before being killed…. Pointless slaughter .

end

IRAN

Protests galore in the west as Iran executes a 22 year old karate champion.  They are set to execute more young men arrested in protests.  The west should pull their diplomats

(zerohedge)

Iran To Execute More Young Men Arrested In Protests As West Weighs Diplomatic Expulsions

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 07:20 PM

Since the start of the September ‘anti-hijab’ protests triggered by the death in police custody of Mahsa Aimini, Iran has launched a major crackdown which has included the arrests of many thousands, but more recently has involved unprecedented protest-related executions.

Four Iranian citizens have been executed so far for what state authorities have dubbed ‘terrorist’ acts. There are widespread reports that two more detainees are about to be executed at a prison in the suburbs of Tehran, after hasty trials.

Protesters gathered outside a prison near the Iranian capital on Sunday night in an attempt to prevent the rumored imminent execution of two young detainees found guilty of running over a police officer in a car during protests in November,” The Guardian reports Monday.Undated photo of political detainees in an Iranian prison, via Iran International

Family members of one of the men, 22-year-old Mohammad Ghobadlou, have reportedly joined protests outside the prison. He along with the other prisoner, Mohammad Boroughani, were reportedly transferred to solitary confinement which has sparked fears of their imminent execution, given this is typical treatment of death row inmates just prior to execution.

This comes after two men were executed only two days ago on Saturday, with The New York Times describing that they were hanged:

Iran on Saturday hanged two men, a 22-year-old national karate champion and a 39-year-old poultry worker, who participated in antigovernment demonstrations and whose executions were condemned as a ploy by the government to use violence and sow fear to crush the protests.

The men, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, the karate champion, and Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, the factory worker, were hanged at dawn on Saturday in the city of Karaj near the capital, Tehran, after hasty trials on charges that they participated in the killing of a member of the Basij paramilitary group in November, according to the judiciary.

Various Western countries have reportedly summoned the respective Iranian ambassadors in their capitals, demanding explanation. For example, France condemned the “appalling” Saturday executions and ongoing severe crackdown on ‘anti-hijab’ protesters.

Human rights groups have called it “open murder” and claimed that inmates are not receiving fair trials and face trumped-up charges. Iran’s foreign ministry has remain staunchly entrenched in defending the nation’s judicial process: “Remarks of self-styled defenders of human rights are replete with racist thoughts,” a statement posted to the foreign ministry’s website said.

Meanwhile, some countries like Canada are going so far as to mull expelling Iranian diplomats, saying that Islamic Republic ambassadors don’t truly represent their people. There have been growing calls in Germany to do the same.

Detained Iranian demonstrators have continued to receive harsh sentences, including years in prison, sometimes for what the rest of the world would deem mere exercise of free speech. But this has not yet served to stamp out the protests, but has in many cases only enraged people in the streets.

6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries



Why Do Vaccinated People Represent Most COVID-19 Deaths Right Now?

Photo Credit: Shutterstock

In Sept. 2021, President Joe Biden declared a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” and blamed this on the roughly 80 million Americans who failed to get the COVID-19 shot.

However, by 2022, vaccinated people made up the majority of the population, with about 79 percent of adults having completed at least their initial shots.

The most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data now find the majority of adults dying of COVID-19 are vaccinated or boosted.

60 Percent of COVID-Related Deaths Among the Vaccinated

An alarming trend has become apparent: Vaccinated and boosted individuals account for a sharply increasing proportion of deaths from COVID-19.

Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) showed in an analysis posted on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, that about 4 in 10 COVID-related deaths were among the vaccinated or boosted by January 2022.

The most recent analysis of CDC data by KFF finds 6 out of 10 COVID-related deaths from April to August 2022 were among people with some level of vaccination.

According to KFF, this is due to a variety of factors relating to how many people were vaccinated earlier in the pandemic when the shots were first made available.

When the vaccines were first rolled out, people who received their initial series of injections represented only a small share of total deaths, because they were such a small number compared to the unvaccinated majority.

But that share was expected to rise as vaccinated people represented a growing share of the U.S. population. Ultimately, if everyone in the United States was vaccinated, then vaccinated people would represent 100 percent of COVID-19 deaths. The same would be observed among those who received a booster dose.

This is because some people who are up to date with vaccines will still get COVID-19, incidents which are considered “breakthrough infections.” As the CDC states, COVID-19 vaccination is effective at preventing severe illness and death, but the shots are not perfect.

Vaccine Benefit Has Become Marginal

The rising share of the vaccinated population is only one factor and doesn’t seem to explain all the increased deaths among vaccinated people over the last year.

KFF concluded that vaccination rates have only grown slightly during this time, yet the number of vaccinated people dying rose more steeply.

Another possible reason we’re seeing increased deaths among the vaccinated is that even in 2021, one study showed vaccine effectiveness waned significantly over time for all adults.

This effect was most pronounced in the older age groups, particularly in those between 40- and 59-years-old, and in those 80 and older.<img class=”size-medium wp-image-4965981″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2023/01/06/F3.large_-600×486.jpg” alt=”Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines BMJ ” width=”600″ height=”486″ /> Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Delta phase by age group and priority risk category, Italy, July 19 to Nov. 7, 2021. The British Medical Journal

“The data is suggesting that at this point, with the vast majority of the population having had contact with either the infection or the vaccine, the effects of the vaccine are marginal,” Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, an expert in long COVID and post-viral chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia, told The Epoch Times.

An Israeli study found vaccine efficacy dropped to the same as three doses just months afterward, while research funded by Moderna found their COVID vaccine’s effectiveness actually became negative over time.

Is Modern Medicine Causing More Harm Than Good?

The updated (bivalent) booster shots became widely available in September 2022, and uptake of those vaccinations has been slow throughout the country.

Dr. Robert G. Lahita, director of the Institute for Autoimmune and Rheumatic Disease at Saint Joseph Health, said the new booster is a tough sell because people are sick of vaccinations.

“People were told that the vaccine would prevent infection and it did not,” he continued. “The man in the street sees only his family and friends sick over and over again and they have all been vaccinated, so he says ‘what’s the point?’”

Teitelbaum also pointed out the possible limitations of modern medicine.

He said there are four areas where modern medicine has clearly been of benefit: antibiotics, acute surgical care, correctly used vaccines (smallpox, tetanus), and public hygiene.

“For many of the others, it’s often a toss-up whether our modern medical system causes more harm than good,” he said. Regardless, Lahita noted that turning our population—and especially our children—into “pincushions for more and more vaccines” isn’t the best idea.

“What I have found in my 50 years in medicine is that, as people take more and more boosters of the same vaccine, I see greater toxicity,” he noted.

An example of this would be the hepatitis B vaccine, where receiving more than two doses was associated with a number of cases in which Teitelbaum observed patients develop chronic fatigue syndrome.

Teitelbaum considers the two initial COVID-vaccine doses reasonable for people over 50 or who have diabetes, cancer, or other severe illnesses, or for children with leukemia or other severe diseases. However, he thinks it’s a mistake to give the vaccine to healthy children because their risk of death from infection is so low and the risks of the vaccines are still unknown.

Optimizing Your Immunity

Experts still have no idea why some people, vaccinated or not, have more severe COVID infections.

Lahita said this might be due to factors like genetics and a person’s overall lifestyle.

For example, obesity is associated with impaired immune function, as is type 2 diabetes. Both conditions are common in the United States and are lifestyle-related.

More severe COVID infections may also involve factors like someone’s individual gut microbiome, his or her environment, or particular immunogenetics (genetic basis of our immune response), said Lahita.

The recent COVID-19 outbreak in China also raises concerns.

China’s current COVID-19 outbreak is led by the Omicron subvariants BA.5.2 and BF.7, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Jan. 4, 2023. Chinese data also show no new coronavirus variant has yet been identified, while also underrepresenting how many people have died in the rapidly spreading outbreak.

According to the most recent data, nearly 90 percent of the Chinese mainland population has been fully vaccinated.

“The Chinese outbreaks are worrisome,” explained Lahita, “because the virus tends to upregulate and mutate in large infected groups.” This could bring about a new spike in COVID-19 infections worldwide, as new variants appear—against which we’ll have no naturally acquired or vaccine-induced protection.

“I expect a new and possibly lethal variant for the near future,” Lahita warned.

Teitelbaum emphasized the importance of optimizing our immunity. He said this could easily be done by:

  • Sleeping a full eight hours every night, as sleep deprivation is a powerful way to suppress immunity.
  • Staying hydrated, but not with sugary drinks, which can suppress immunity.

Several key nutrients, especially zinc and vitamin D, are critical for dramatically improving immunity and outcomes in infections in general, especially in COVID-19.

“Personally, during COVID outbreaks (or when I had the infection), I take a mix of elderberry along with these nutrients,” said Teitelbaum.

George Citroner

George Citroner is a health reporter for The Epoch Times.

END

This Censorious Pfizer Board Member Was A Major Influence On Lockdowns

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via the Brownstone Institute (emphasis ours),

The latest of the Twitter Files is reported by Alex Berenson, who was granted access to messaging systems from the times before Elon Musk took over. His first round of reporting concerns the role of Scott Gottlieb, who is a perfect example of an influencer who is technically outside of government but might as well be a powerful official within it. 

Gottlieb’s main gig now is as a senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, but he also serves as a board member of Pfizer. Before joining AEI and Pfizer, he headed the Food and Drug Administration under Trump from 2017 to 2019. Before that, he was at Health and Human Services as a member of its Federal Health IT Policy Committee from 2013 to 2017. 

You probably know him from TV because he has been a ubiquitous presence since the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns, defending the government’s actions and pushing the vaccines from the company whose board he serves. 

In August 2021, he wrote Twitter to complain about a tweet from his successor at the FDA, Brett Giroir. Giroir wrote to report the results of a study in Israel that clearly demonstrated what most anyone could have known even without the study: natural immunity is superior to vaccinated immunity. 

Gottlieb complained that the tweet is “corrosive” and might “go viral.” Twitter acted by slapping a “misleading” tag on the tweet, one that still remains to this day. 

Here is the email. 

Now, one might observe that Gottlieb is merely a private person and that it was certainly his right to object to anyone’s opinions. Maybe that’s true, except that he served Pfizer at the time and his company enjoyed billions in subsidies to make its product which not only gained a patent but benefitted from product-liability protection that is conventional with such vaccines. In addition, the product was only distributed thanks to an Emergency Use Authorization that bypassed the usual federal standards. 

That aside, he had been massively influential on lockdown policies from the very beginning, urging the Trump administration to be as extreme as possible in its attack on civil liberties and freedoms. 

We know this because Jared Kushner’s book reports every detail. He led the effort to present the guidelines for lockdowns that occurred on March 16, 2022, and he did it with the help of two tech executives he tapped to hang around the White House. Kushner reports:

As we dealt with the shortage of cotton swabs and other supplies, we faced another problem: the need to develop public health guidelines. Given that people across the country were confused and concerned, Birx and Fauci had been discussing the need for a unified set of federal standards to help Americans understand what they should do to keep themselves safe and slow the spread of the virus. They insisted that these guidelines would help prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. Despite all the talk over the past week, no one had taken steps to produce a document. When Nat Turner flagged the issue, I asked him to coordinate with Derek Lyons to produce a draft and encouraged him to call Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the FDA and a renowned public health expert. I had been trying to persuade Gottlieb to come back into government for a short-term stint to help us better organize our response and support our effort to develop a vaccine. 

When we called Gottlieb, he was grateful that we were preparing guidelines. “They should go a little bit further than you are comfortable with,” he said. “When you feel like you are doing more than you should, that is a sign that you are doing them right.”

So here we have a former government official now working as a board member for one of the companies chosen to produce and distribute vaccines who was directly involved and hugely influential in crafting a policy for the Trump administration that ended up not only dooming the Trump presidency but setting the entire country on the course to recession and a public health crisis. Still Pfizer benefited, obviously. 

Sure enough, he got his way and the Trump administration issued the draconian guidance: “bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

And why call out Gottlieb alone when many thousands of serious scientists and medical professionals would have strongly advised against locking down?

This is why what Berenson reports here is so significant. Gottlieb was anxious not only to lock down the entire country but also to censor any report on what used to be common-sense observations about natural immunity, even when it comes from credentialed experts and cites peer-reviewed studies. 

After his lockdown advocacy, and before his intervention to pull down a tweet celebrating natural immunity, but only after the vaccine came to market, he took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to say that the CDC had gone too far, especially with its enforcement of social distancing: “The reliance on a flu model caused public-health authorities to underestimate and overestimate Covid in important ways.”

The person and role of Gottlieb is a paradigmatic case of why and how unraveling the mysteries of the lockdowns and vaccine mandates is such a complicated undertaking. It’s not just about government intervention and it’s not just about private corruption. It’s about a complicated relationship between the two, involving a range of public and private actors in and out of government who seized control of the policy machinery to achieve private ends at enormous public expense. 

end

This was a very disturbing move by the FDA and they should be hanged for causing huge numbers of deaths

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. drug regulators acknowledged deviating from the normal vaccine approval process when dealing with Pfizer’s COVID-19 shot, according to newly disclosed documents.A sign for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration outside of the headquarters in White Oak, Md., on July 20, 2020. (Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images)

Weeks after Pfizer and its partner BioNTech announced they started a rolling submission of documents for approval of their COVID-19 vaccine, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration official penned a memorandum authorizing the release of a Biologics License Application (BLA) number for the shot even as regulators weighed whether to approve the BLA, one of the documents shows.

This deviation from our normal practice is done to facilitate product labeling and distribution and is consistent with other Center practices to facilitate vaccine delivery during the declared Public Health Emergency,” Christopher Joneckis, the FDA’s associate director for review management, wrote in the June 17, 2021, memo. “When providing the license number, we should communicate that this license number does not constitute any determination by FDA on the application.”

Joneckis said the decision stemmed in part from the FDA having granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the shot in late 2020. That means the FDA “is familiar with and has reviewed much of the information provided in the BLA application,” which primarily consisted of data used in the application for emergency clearance, he said.

EUAs can be granted if a public health emergency has been declared and the FDA determines it’s “reasonable to believe” that the vaccine or other product in question “may be effective” in preventing, diagnosing, or treating the disease or condition caused by the public health threat. BLAs require a higher threshold of evidence, demonstrating that a product is “safe, pure, and potent.”

A separate document made public this week showed that the license number was given to Pfizer even though no approval decision had been made after Pfizer requested it.

“The Applicant requested a U.S. License Number for BioNTech Manufacturing GmbH with agreement that they will not use it until after the BLA is approved,” the document, a summary of a June 29, 2021, FDA meeting discussing Pfizer’s application, stated.

The summary noted that Joneckis wrote the memo authorizing the release of the number “in advance of the typical notification in the approval letter.” After that, the FDA “generated the license number which will be provided to the Applicant, after filing, in an email message.”

The FDA granted a BLA to Pfizer’s vaccine for individuals 16 and older on Aug. 23, 2021. The vaccine was later approved for children as young as six months of age. The FDA has also authorized or approved multiple boosters due to the vaccine performing poorly against newer variants.

The documents were released by the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), which successfully convinced a court to order the FDA to produce documents related to its actions on the COVID-19 vaccines after the agency had claimed it would take decades to do so. The government has been providing ICAN documents in response to the suit and Freedom of Information Act requests.

Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing the network, told The Epoch Times in an email that the new documents are “another piece of evidence that supports that licensure of this product quickly became a foregone conclusion.”

The FDA did not respond to a request for comment.

Advisory Committee Meeting ‘Not Needed’

The FDA only held one meeting with its advisory panel, the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), after Pfizer and BioNTech lodged their BLA request. That meeting focused on whether to clear vaccines for younger populations, and not the new application.

During the meeting, multiple panelists expressed confusion about when they would be consulted on any BLA requests.

Read more here…

end

This is a good read

Bill Rice/Brownstone

Where’s The Woodward And Bernstein Of The COVID Scandals?

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Bill Rice via The Brownstone Institute,

I was just a kid, but I’m old enough to remember Watergate. As I grew older, I learned more specific details about this historic event. Here’s my Watergate takeaway, which I think is the accepted “narrative” on this historic event:

Watergate was the biggest political scandal of the century. The fallout or denouement caused President Nixon to resign from office and sent several “conspirators” to prison. 

It also made Woodward and Bernstein the most famous journalists of all time. 

Few people had heard of these journalists when they began compiling relevant facts about the original Watergate crime and obligatory cover-up, but this changed over the span of about two years.

Based in part on these two journalists doing their jobs, Congressional officials decided to also do their jobs and before you knew it, most of the sordid story was known to the world. 

Woodward and Bernstein, who were already minor celebrities, really cashed in with the publication of their best-selling book All the President’s Men, which was adapted into an Academy Award-winning movie starring Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman, two of the biggest stars of our era.

After filling their mantles with every journalism prize, the Washington Post scribes parlayed this fame and success into a lifetime of speaking gigs. By “breaking” the Watergate scandal, they also acquired the panache that allowed them to play leading roles in future investigations that resulted in even more best-selling books.

Today, the names of both journalists are literally in the history books, where their journalistic accomplishments will live forever. 

Every ambitious journalist who followed wanted to be the next Woodward and Bernstein and break some huge scandal that might elevate them onto a similar professional pedestal. 

The employer of Woodward and Bernstein, the Washington Post, built most of its reputation on the fact it was the newspaper that did more than any other to expose Watergate.

So … It pays handsomely – directly and indirectly with benefits that will last a lifetime – to be the journalists or news organization that breaks the “scandal of the century.”

Which leads to THE question: Given all of the above, why doesn’t any journalist, editor or publisher want to be the next Woodward and Bernstein when it comes to Covid scandals? 

The Covid scandals that could be exposed by an enterprising journalist(s) are vastly larger and more important than those involving Watergate.

To cite one difference … nobody died in Watergate.

In way of comparison, the disease Covid – as well as all the calamitous responses to Covid – must have killed and injured 10, 20, 50 million (a billion?) people by now. And these casualty figures are still growing.

Nor did Watergate cripple the economy nor lead to rampant inflation. 

Nor did it lead to mass censorship and the evisceration of civil liberties. 

Also, the Watergate conspiracies and cover-ups included only a small group of Nixon loyalists in the White House, plus a few people who actually did the “dirty tricks.”

It takes no Woodward and Bernstein for the Man on the Street to realize that Covid crimes and cover-ups must have involved practically every agency in government by now. 

NIH, NIAID, CDC, FDA, the Pentagon, the FBI, the CIA, the White House, the Department of Homeland Defense, Congress, the Justice Department, the courts , judges, governors, mayors, OSHA, the Departments of Transportation, Commerce, Labor, HHS … local police departments, all the state and local health agencies, colleges, school boards … almost all of these agencies went “all in” on the bogus Covid narratives and requisite cover-ups.

Then we have all of the private sector cronies and conspirators. 

In Watergate, at least that I am aware of, Big Pharma was not implicated. With Watergate, none of the world’s major corporations signed onto the program. 

With Covid, as far as I can tell, every big company endorsed the CDC’s policy guidebook and did their patriotic best to make sure the conspiracy went off without a hitch. 

When you stop and think about it, there’s no way a “Woodward and Bernstein” could tell the story of the Covid Scandal. There’s simply too many scandals that would have to be exposed. It would take an army of Woodward and Bernsteins to break the pieces down into individual, sub-scandal components. 

Still, the journalists who provided the public with a few key answers to what really happened and why, journalists who told the world the names of the people who committed the biggest crimes and cover-ups, would surely go down in history as the most important journalists of world history. 

That is, Woodward and Bernstein would have to move down to second place. 

Which isn’t their fault. It’s just that, compared to Covid, Watergate seems like a scandal to fix a few parking tickets. 

But, still, not ONE mainstream media journalist nor one mainstream media news organization has shown any interest in exposing any parts of the scandal of all time. 

How does one explain such a surreal reality? 

If saving lives and exposing corrupt (I’d say evil) officials doesn’t motivate today’s journalists, one would think that the All-American values of wanting to become rich and famous would get the adrenalin of a few crackerjack journalists flowing.

But, no. 

As it turns out, nobody wants to be the next Woodward and Bernstein. Nobody cares about earning that spot in the history books and making their children and grandchildren proud. (“My Dad scored four touchdowns in a high school football game.” “… Well, my Dad broke the Covid scandal …”)

Why doesn’t any journalist want to expose the real truth about the myriad Covid scandals? 

The answer to this puzzler seems pretty obvious to me. The watchdog press must be a part of the conspiracy. The conspiracy must be that vast. This is the only possible answer I can come up with.

The reason Woodward and Bernstein were able to tell the the world that Nixon’s White House was full of crooks is because the Washington Post wasn’t part of that conspiracy.

In fact, the journalists and their employer were part of a massive group effort involving hundreds of news organizations that were working around the clock, trying to expose the crimes and cover-ups.

When you realize this, you realize that Nixon and his team never had a chance of getting away with it. 

But skip forward 50 years to Covid times and we see that the scales of journalism have completely flipped.  

The key to the modern-day scandal is …

Of course everyone will get away with their miscellaneous crimes and misdemeanors because nobody who could expose the crooks is trying to do this. 

The lesson here is a big one: If you want to get away with “crimes against humanity,” you better make sure you’ve fully captured the watchdog press. (Even Woodward and Bernstein, who are still alive and cranking out stories, don’t care about no Covid scandals.)

How the Bad Guys were able to capture and control approximately 40,000 mainstream journalists would itself be one heck of a story.

But who’s going to tell that story?

Don’t laugh, but I guess it will end up being someone like me.

In the past, I would never have considered that some small-time freelance journalist could break some big, historic scoop. I mean, I can’t even get one government official to return my calls or emails (“Dr. Fauci, Bill Rice, Jr. on the phone …”)

Nor do I have a partner like Woodward helping me with any digging.

But, I’ll say this: I’m not like today’s other 40,000 mainstream journalists. Becoming rich and famous wouldn’t bother me. If I could save a few lives and help put a few diabolical crooks into prison, this would check my “I did something meaningful with my life” box.

Plus, I’ve had this thought: Nobody else is really on the case. Even today, Woodward and Bernstein – with some research help from some of theWashington Post’s army of interns – could expose some of these scandals in three weeks … if they tried. 

But we all know these guys are sitting this scandal out. 

Breaking this scandal would make them even richer and more famous, but it would also prove all the conspiracy “kooks” were right all along. The embarrassment and professional stigma would be too great for them to bear. The mean tweets from former colleagues (“Why did you go and do that? You’re not in our club anymore!”) wouldn’t be worth the cost.

As it turns out, for reasons that boggle the mind, the amateurs on Substack have been granted complete monopoly rights to investigate the Story of All Time. 

What the heck. If the Big Leaguers don’t want play, I say, “Put me in, Coach …” 

Anyway, if anyone reading this happens to be a potential whistleblower with information that would tell your fellow citizens what really took place with Covid, please contact me via this Substack site.

I also know this. In 2023, Covid’s version of Deep Throat would be wasting his breath to call anyone at theWashington Post. But every real journalist at Substack would take that call and run with it. 

*  *  *

Reposted from the author’s Substack

GLOBAL ISSUES;//

PAUL ALEXANDER

SHOCKING (I remind you) that FDA published a study (Wong et al.) using surveillance data finding Pfizer COVID vaccine increases risk of lung blood clots by 50%; not one media outlet ran it, NOT one!

Media censorship: 18 million COVID-19 Pfizer vaccinees, 4 outcomes met the threshold for a statistical signal including pulmonary embolism (PE; RR = 1.54), acute myocardial infarction (AMI; RR = 1.42)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 10
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Not one, it is as if this study does not exist! To increase lung clots by 50% and no one covered it?

Did you know of these findings? This study? Of course you did not had you not been following my stacks. Why? Because the government, academia, media, deepstate, alphabet health agencies and big pharma, do not want you to know these results.

Look, it was all a lie! Everything we were ever told on COVID pandemic, lockdowns, or COVID gene injections!

They looked at 14 outcomes of interest following COVID-19 vaccination using the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) data covering 30,712,101 elderly persons. The CMS data from December 11, 2020 through Jan 15, 2022 included 17,411,342 COVID-19 vaccinees who received a total of 34,639,937 doses.

Four outcomes met the threshold for a statistical signal following BNT162b2 vaccination including pulmonary embolism (PE; RR = 1.54), acute myocardial infarction (AMI; RR = 1.42), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC; RR = 1.91), and immune thrombocytopenia (ITP; RR = 1.44).’

‘This early warning system is the first to identify temporal associations for PE, AMI, DIC, and ITP following BNT162b2 vaccination in the elderly.’

Re-post:

SOURCE:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22014931

end

Everything the government told us about COVID, from the virus, to lockdowns, to the COVID gene injection vaccine was a lie, 100% lie! PCR test was a lie, over-cycled, its a process, not a test!

in US, ran at 45 cycles but anything over 24 detects viral dust, NOT COVID;

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 10
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

i)once cycles go to 24 and above, then you detect viral junk and non-culturable virus, non-infectious, non-lethal; that is, each cycle doubles the material in the test until they can identify the sample; in other words, we closed schools and locked society with a near 95%-97% false positive; declared positive but you never were; this was done to get you hysterical and scared when you were never infected or even infectious

In my opinion, this was deliberate

ii)they lied by saying natural immunity is inferior to vaccine immunity, a pure lie

iii)lied that there was asymptomatic transmission; people without symptoms cannot infect

iv)they lied that there was no early treatment

v)the lie that there was equal risk of severe outcome and death if exposed and infected, despite age and risk profile

vi) lied about recurrent infection pre Omicron era

vii)they lied that the vaccine would stop infection and transmission

viii)they lied about how dangerous the virus is and was, for it was always at or below seasonal influenza; Ioannidis showed that the IFR for those 70-75 years and below is 0.05%

ix)the mean and median age of death for COVID is 82 to 83 years yet life expectancy is about 79 years and as such, COVID did not cut life short and kills beyond life-expectancy; it killed and kills persons who are elderly and with medical conditions, always did and still does.

Every single aspect of the pandemic response was a lie! All of it!

Please consider ordering my book ‘Presidential Takedown’:

Order via this LINK

END

THIS IS IMPORTANT!!

Dying just before dawn’ due to catecholamine surge signally it is time to wake (rise); same happens in physical exercise as well as waking from sleep & heart damaged by myocarditis due to vaccine or

infection is at risk to this dopamine, epinephrine surge (exercising or waking from sleep); McCullough has written about this as a cardiologist and expert on COVID, see substack

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 10
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

“Dying just before dawn”; the sudden and unexpected deaths we are seeing in young people are most likely from undiagnosed or asymptomatic vaccine-induced myocarditis; catecholamine surge!

If you have not listened to Peter McCullough (a cardiologist who is board-certified in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease), you should. I think when this settles out, he will get a Nobel Prize for medicine, for his work on early treatment (I am proud to be part of his team on that) and his move and success in saving lives across this fraud pan…

Read more

SELLERS: Top 10 Conspiracy Theories that Will Be Validated in 2023

In the spirit of New Year’s predictions, I will boldly assert that the same may be true of 2023’s future word of the year, “conspiracy theory.”

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 10
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 
  1. The role that the intel community and the Justice Department played in fomenting violence through psy-ops on Jan. 6, 2021, will be exposed.  Sadly, in their expected counter-investigation responding to the Pelosi-run Jan. 6 committee, even House Republicans may withhold state secrets from us. But the FBI’s damaging partisan conduct has generated a multitude of whistleblowing defectors who should be willing to shed light on the dubious allegations of right-wing extremism and violence at the U.S. Capitol—and in the 2017 Charlottesville riot that was its dress rehearsal.
  2. The deadly impact of the COVID vaccines will become undeniable. Initially, I had considered writing about how the GOP House will expose Anthony Fauci’s role in developing the COVID-19 virus, but that already has been scrutinized to death, and without any accountability to back it up, it makes no difference. But there are plenty of other COVID abuses that will keep on yielding new storylines. And none may be greater than the decision by pharmaceutical companies to suppress therapeutics and overplay the importance of their untested and experimental new vaccines. The evidence is mounting that the vaccines themselves may have been as deadly and damaging as the virus—something to which many life-insurance actuaries may be able to attest. Whether the vaccines do, indeed, have nanobots that self-assemble and transmit wi-fi, there is a lot of reason to suspect that they are harmful on some level.
  3. The scope of China’s control over the U.S. government will become clearer. We know about the various financial ties between the Biden family and the CCP. We know that other top leaders, including Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell are heavily invested in Chinese industry. But what we have yet to fully explore is the way that China-linked companies like BlackRock have also completely infiltrated the White House and are effectively writing U.S. foreign policy.
  4. The true nature of David DePape’s relationship with Paul Pelosi will be revealed. While court hearings have kept a tight lid on the evidence in the Paul Pelosi assault case, including body-cam footage, it will be harder for Nancy Pelosi to flex her authority after stepping down as House speaker. It is very clear that the assailant, David DePape, is no right-wing extremist and that there is more going on that meets the eye.
  5. We will find out what Trump’s purloined Mar-a-Lago files really contained. Punting the DOJ probes that resulted in the unprecedented raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort to corrupt special counsel Jack Smith was a good way to keep them out of the reach of GOP oversight in the U.S. House. But, eventually, the clock will run out and it will be necessary to explain why, exactly, this norm-violating measure was taken. Odds are it was a CYA operation by the FBI to prevent Trump from exposing the Russia-hoax documents that he already had publicly declared to be declassified.
  6. We will learn what the Democrats intend to do with Joe Biden and who will be tapped to replace him. Will it be Michelle Obama, as I and others have long predicted? Or could they pull out another yet-unknown figure who has been carfully vetted and groomed in secret, like her husband, Barack? Once the Democrats finally decide that Biden has outlasted his usefulness, their reasons for installing him in the first place may become clear. When Barack Obama was overheard telling a Democrat donor “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f**k things up,” there is a good chance it was a sales pitch more than a warning.
  7. We will discover the truth about the U.S.–Ukrainian partnership to research and develop bioweapons. Congress has allocated in excess of $100 billion to defend something in Ukraine, but it sure ain’t democracy. While their personal investments in Burisma—or in weapons manufacturers like Raytheon—may be prime motivators, all indications are that the country is a rat’s nest of CIA operations.
  8. The Left’s plans to normalize and mainstream pedophilia will come to fruition. The initial push to sexualize and groom children in schools and on kid-friendly mediums like Disney may have fallen flat, but leftists will only redouble their efforts to foist this onto the population because the ability to control and manipulate young minds is pivotal to their long-term plans for control. By acclimating children to sex at an early age, they can add it as another weapon in their quiver, which also includes cultivating ignorance and racial grievances, so that the plebian class is as pliable as possible.
  9. The World Economic Forum will lead the way in trying to turn humans into glorified Matrix-style batteries. The convergence of artificial intelligence technology, the metaverse, the decline of office culture, growing clamor about digital passports and currencies, guaranteed incomes and an ever-increasing scarcity of resources suggest that the global plans to collectivize all nations under a one-world government are being gamed out as we speak.
  10. As the relationship between Big Tech and the spy agencies becomes clearer, we will learn that our personal devices are tracking our every move. Knowing what we know about the interest that the FBI and the CIA have in manipulating technology companies to perform extralegal operations, and what we know about the reprehensible virtue signaling of Google and Apple, is there really any doubt that they have empowered our intel community to conduct warrantless domestic surveillance from any device at any time and that our phones are being used to monitor us, in true Big Brother fashion, around the clock?

SOURCE:

END

Let me weigh in on censorship at the White House & Trump administration & Biden’s: I sat there & heard my bosses tell appointees & federal officials any censorship, they will be fired on the spot;

I can speak on the Trump administration, not Biden’s. They were told & it was the practice of my bosses at HHS to not muzzle Diva Fauci or anyone; my job was to get them to stop lying to the public!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 10
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

By using the real data and evidence! My job was to get Fauci and NIH and CDC to follow the science and to quote and use the accurate data, not the lies and mis-information they conjured up in their statements and via their bogus MMWR political reports.

It was only me and Dr. Scott Atlas and also Dr. Navarro though, fighting them on the inside, so it was very very difficult. Working in DC is like working in hell.

Now I can tell you that I grew to learn that these people in Trump administration that his peoples appointed, based on meetings I attended, hated him, were there for fame, the money, to help him get re-elected to keep their job and transition to K-street for big salaries etc. But hated him too. So I am not surprised that for the wrong reasons, they, in the Trump administration, would have engaged in censorship to the American people via TWITTER, Facebook etc. Both administrations. Trump did not authorize any censoring, they did, for their reasons. To keep the truth about the lockdowns and vaccines hidden. The real truth. So he would be re-elected. Yet they were battling to keep him there for the wrong reasons, as others we trying to remove him for their reasons. One POTUS had like 10 coups on him ongoing at once.

Not surprising to me. I may have also been on the list to be censored and worse, for I was waging holy jihad on them from within, for I knew the devastation by the lockdown lunacy on minorities, on blacks, on women especially poorer, on minority children, on the muslim community, e.g. south Asian community etc. and was hammering HHS, FDA, NIH, CDA, Fauci etc. I was hated by these untermensche. They cared (and do not care) not one second in these alphabet health agencies, for health and well-being. CDC and NIH and FDA to this day, has and will never care for minorities and their health. Black Americans are an after thought to these officials in these health agencies.

Those in the Trump administration who engaged in censoring, did so in part, to keep their jobs and helping Trump get re-elected to keep a job. Hated him. Very ideologically driven too. Lockdown lunatics they were and were very concerned if he lost, they would need a job. They told me in my face.

/VACCINE IMPACT

The U.S. Government Does not Want You to Know the Truth About How the COVID Shots are Killing and Injuring People

January 9, 2023 5:17 pm

With almost half of the American public now convinced that the increase in “sudden deaths” is linked to the COVID-19 shots, it is time to understand that the U.S. Government does NOT serve and protect the people, but instead serves and protects the interests of Big Pharma, Big Tech, and the rest of the Wall Street Billionaires and bankers. The evidence now is overwhelming that the U.S. Government completely violated the First Amendment of the Constitution of the United States that allows for dissenting information and the right to criticize those in public office, by partnering with the Big Tech companies that control Social Media, such as Google/YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter to censor information about the COVID-19 “vaccines” that contradicted the U.S. Government’s propaganda. These are criminal actions that have led to the deaths and injuries of millions of people. And this was not an accident. This was premeditated murder, as the U.S. Military funded and operated the entire campaign of unleashing weapons of mass destruction on their own citizens, all in the name of “population control” and “saving the planet.” As has almost always been the case throughout human history, the side of TRUTH is almost always the minority side, and to take a stand for TRUTH is to sacrifice oneself for the cause of liberty. The compliant ones are the ones who are now dead or crippled, the defiant ones are the ones still standing and telling the truth. The U.S. Government is not on your side. They are your enemy, because they serve Big Pharma and Big Tech, not you.

Read More…


55 Performers Collapsing or Dying on Stage or Live Camera in Late 2022 through 2023

January 9, 2023 8:56 pm

There are 55 documented cases of performers collapsing, dying, or falling ill in late 2022 through 2023 in this video. And in almost all of these cases, the media will say: “We don’t know what caused this, but it was definitely not the COVID vaccine.” Really? And we saw this happening prior to the roll-outs of the COVID “vaccines”?

Read More…

end

USA Government behind the vaccine development (dept of defense)

Special thanks to Neil A for sending this to us;

Background picture on what occured in order for jabs to be rolled out without proper testing

‘Redacted’ podcast with Former Pharmaceutical Research contractor Executive

SLAY NEWS

American Heart Association: mRNA Shots Linked to MyocarditisThe American Heart Association (AHA) has published research that suggests mRNA shots are linked to cases of myocarditis.READ MORE
Fauci Panics as Elon Musk’s ‘Fauci Files’ Looms, Claims ‘Disinformation’ Is the ‘Enemy’Dr. Anthony Fauci appears to be panicking after Elon Musk recently teased that he plans to release files that will expose the former top federal health official.READ MORE
Greg Abbott Gives Biden Plan to Secure Border: ‘Under Your Watch, America Suffering Worst Illegal Immigration in History’Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott has called on Joe Biden to do his job after the Democrat president finally made his way down to the southern border.READ MORE
Rapper Cardi B Reaches Limit with Inflation: ‘I Could Only Imagine What Middle Class People Thinking’Rapper Cardi B has reached her limit with rising inflation in Biden’s America.READ MORE
Trump Calls for Adam Schiff to ‘Be Prosecuted for Damage He Has Done to Our Country’President Donald Trump has called for Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) to “be prosecuted for the damage he has done to our country.”READ MORE
Satanic Temple Dedicates ‘Largest Gathering in History’ to Boston’s Democrat MayorThe Satanic Temple is dedicating its upcoming SatanCon 2023 event to Boston’s Democrat Mayor Michelle Wu.READ MORE
Kayleigh McEnany Announces Upcoming Book ‘Serenity in the Storm: Living Through Chaos by Leaning on Christ’President Donald Trump’s former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has announced she’s writing a new book.READ MORE
American Airlines to Drop Services in 3 Cities amid Reduced Demand and Pilot ShortageAmerican Airlines is dropping service in three cities starting this Spring because of reduced demand and an ongoing pilot shortage.READ MORE
Heartbreaking Update on Ex-NFL Star in ICU after Saving Kids from Drowning: ‘Family Asks You All to Pray’The family of Peyton Hillis, the ex-NFL star who is fighting for his life in the ICU, gave reporters a heartbreaking update on his condition yesterday.READ MORE
Capitol Police Officer Sicknick’s Girlfriend Sues Trump over Claims of Wrongful DeathLate Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick’s girlfriend is suing President Donald Trump for millions of dollars over claims of wrongful death.READ MORE
17-Year-Old Athlete Dies Suddenly after ‘Freakish Medical Situation’A 17-year-old athlete has died suddenly in Wyoming after suffering a “freakish medical situation,” according to reports.READ MORE
Prince Harry’s U.S Visa ‘at Risk’ after Drug Use Admission“Woke” British royal Prince Harry has put his U.S. visa “at risk” over his recent admission of drug use, according to reports.READ MORE
College Soccer Player Wins $100K Settlement after Team Benched Her for Refusing to Kneel for BLMA former Virginia Tech women’s soccer player has won a $100,000 settlement after she was benched by her team for refusing to kneel in protest for Black Lives Matter (BLM).READ MO

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Russia Restores Output At Sakhalin-1 Oil Project After Exxon Exit

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 05:00 AM

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Russia has ramped up oil production from the Sakhalin-1 project and expects the field to soon pump at the full level of 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) after the project’s previous operator, U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil, quit Russian operations, an industry source with knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Monday.

Currently, oil production at Sakhalin-1 is around 150,000 bpd, or 65% of its capacity, according to Reuters’ industry source. Output is set to hit the 220,000 bpd peak level in “three to four weeks,” the source added.

Exxon announced at the start of March 2022 that it was going to withdraw from Sakhalin-1 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Exxon said it would exit the venture, as well as all its Russian projects, and make no new investments in Russia. In April 2022, Exxon declared force majeure on the Sakhalin-1 project due to Western sanctions against Moscow. Before the war in Ukraine, the project exported some 273,000 barrels daily of Sokol crude, with the main destination for the shipments being South Korea. Sakhalin-1 crude was also shipped to Japan, Australia, Thailand, and the United States.

After Exxon abandoned the project, oil production at Sakhalin-1 collapsed. 

In October, Russia removed Exxon as a shareholder from the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project and transferred its stake to a Russian business entity. Exxon had a 30-percent stake in Sakhalin-1, but Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree with which a new entity was set up to manage the operations of the Far East oil and gas project. The decree allowed the Russian government to distribute the stakes in the project and kick out foreign partners if they saw fit.  

Russia has decided to let Japanese firms keep their stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil project in Russia’s Far East as Moscow reshuffled ownership of domestic oil and gas projects after a mass exodus of Western firms following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.     

end

Andurand: Oil Prices Could Exceed $140 If China’s Economy Fully Reopens

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

  • Hedge fund manager Andurand: full reopening of Chinese economy could send oil prices past $140 per barrel.
  • Andurand: The market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost.
  • Andurand did say last week that oil demand will be limited somewhat by a growth in the EV sector.

Crude oil prices could exceed $140 per barrel yet this year if China’s economy fully reopens, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said on Friday.

Andurand sees the possibility of crude oil demand growing by more than 4 million barrels per day this year—a 4% increase over last year. This far exceeds crude demand growth set out for 2023 by other oil market forecasters.

I think oil will go upwards of $140 a barrel once Asia fully reopens, assuming there will be no more lockdowns, Andurand said, adding that the “market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost that it will bring.”

Andurand’s forecast goes against the trend that crude oil prices set so far this year. During the first week of the year, crude oil prices tumbled by 9% in the first two trading days in what was the worst start to a year since 1991.

Last week, Andurand said in a tweet that oil demand could increase between 3 and 4 million bpd this year, aided by the switch from oil to gas.

China’s reopening has been on the oil industry’s radar ever since it employed its zero-covid policies and locked down much of its economy. China only recently made significant changes to its covid policies, abandoning its strict measures in favor of relaxed testing requirements and travel restrictions. But China’s reopening has been plagued with a new wave of Covid, spooking many oil bulls off what would be their rejoicing at what should be a significant bump in demand.

Andurand did say last week that oil demand will be limited somewhat by a growth in the EV sector, as EVs have the potential to displace 600,000 bpd of oil demand.

END

8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.

BRAZIL

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0726  DOWN  .0006 

USA/ YEN 132.21 UP  0,493/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  RISES//

GBP/USA 1.2142 DOWN   0.0042

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR 0.21% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 56.88 POINTS OR 0.27% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.26%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 56.88 PTS OR 0.27% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.58 PTS OR 0.21%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .26% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 201.71 PTS .78%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1871.95

silver:$23.47

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.12 UP .37  BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.244% UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.500% UP 0 AND 2/100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.323%// UP 6  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.201 UP 3   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.298% UP 7 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0736 UP 0.0004  or 4 basis points//

USA/Japan: 132.16 UP 0.423 OR YEN DOWN 42  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2165 DOWN .0019 OR  19 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar  DOWN .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts  to 1.3421

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 6.7785

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7877

TURKISH LIRA:  18.78  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.500

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 11 IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.628% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.762 UP 11 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.01 UP 27  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 32,91 PTS OR  0.43%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 22.11 POINTS OR 0.15%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 40.50  PTS OR 0.59% 

Spain IBEX UP 24.90 POINTS OR 0.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 15.92 PTS OR  0.06%

WTI Oil price 74.92   12: EST

Brent Oil:  79.63  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  69.80/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 19/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.298

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5770  UP 5 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0735  UP .0003    OR 3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2155 DOWN   .0029  or  29 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.585% up 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.24    UP 0.509/YEN DOWN 51 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3423 UP .0029 (CDN dollar, DOWN 29 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 75.02

Brent OIL:  79.93

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 3.608%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 3.740%

USA dollar index:102.99 UP 26  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.78

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  69.80  UP 0 AND  19/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 186.45 PTS OR 0.56% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 97.33 PTS OR 0.88%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.72 DOWN 1.28 PTS (5.69)%

GLD: $174.74 UP 0.66 OR 0.38%

SLV/ $21.73 DOWN .01 OR 0.05%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Squeeze Higher After Powell ‘Nothingburger’, Bonds Dumped

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 04:01 PM

The day started on a down note with a disappointing drop in Small Business Optimism, back near COVID-lockdown-lows, but all eyes and ears were glued to what Powell would say at 0900ET and if he would jawbone down the “unwarranted” easing of financial conditions that is occurring…

Source: Bloomberg

…and he basically said… nothing… Barely any comment on current monetary policy at all and that was all the market needed to adjust to ‘pausing’. Interestingly, Fed rate-trajectory expectations drifted modestly hawkishly today…

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks wanted higher and higher they went ahead of Thursday’s CPI event risk. Small Caps outperformed while The Dow lagged. The last few minutes saw the major indices meltup into the cash close…

S&P was trapped between its 50- and 100-DMA today for much of the day but the machines wanted to run the 50DMA stops and did so…

Multiple attempts at short-squeezes today finally triggered a breakout…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal, tumbling back to a 20 handle…

Bonds were battered today broadly-speaking but a strong 3Y auction put a relative bid under the short-end (3Y +2.5bps, 30Y +8bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3Y yields dropped back below 4.00% after the auction…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index is inching ever closer to a death-cross (likely tomorrow or Thursday), but was flat on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied today (as we note the discount on GBTC is compressing)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed modest gains today, holding the jump from last week

Oil prices rallied (amid some intraday volatility) with WTI back above $75…

NatGas prices plunged again – roundtripping the ramp from the last few days…

Finally, we note that the recent dollar weakness has not been supportive for commodities…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems the weaker commodity to weaker inflationary pressure to weaker monetary policy pressure transmission mechanism is in play.

END

EARLY MORNING TRADING/

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

Another good indicator that the economy is faltering: USA used c ar prices record their largest annualized decline

(zerohedge)

Used-Car Prices Record “Largest Annualized Decline In Series’ History”

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 02:40 PM

Cox Automotive reported that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), which tracks the auction prices of used cars, plunged the most on record in December from a year ago as the auto market cools. 

MUVVI increased 0.8% in December from November and rose slightly to 219.3, but was down 14.9% from a year ago. “This was the largest annualized decline in the series’ history,” Manheim wrote in a statement. 

Despite the most significant yearly decline on record, used car prices at auction houses remain 14% below record highs. 

Manheim wrote that all eight segments of the used car market recorded lower seasonally adjusted prices year over year in December. They noted, “vans had the smallest decline at 12.0%, followed by pickups, sports cars, and compact cars at 12.2%, 12.6%, and 13.5%, respectively.” 

December’s plunge surpassed November’s decline of 14.2%, which was the largest decline at the time

Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke recently explained, “new inventory is finally starting to build, and that’s producing momentum in new retail sales, but that momentum appears to be at the expense of used retail. Especially it’s the traditionally used car buyer that’s most impacted by payment affordability.” 

Cooling of the used car market comes as the interest rate paid for used car loans hits the highest rate in more than a decade, sparking a price affordability crisis for buyers. 

During the virus pandemic, Americans used the most debt to fund record car prices — fast-forwarding to today, used car prices have dropped, and the economy is weakening, which might signal recession. We outlined last month the US could be on the cusp of a crushing auto loan crisis, unleashing a wave of repossessions and loan defaults. 

The good news is that runaway inflation in 2021 and 2022 is cooling. Remember when soaring car prices were the leading indicator of red-hot inflation prints? Now the opposite is happening. 

end

Another strong indicator of trouble ahead in the USA financial world

(zerohedge)

Flashing Red Alert: Near Record Surge In Credit Card Debt Just As Rates Hit All Time High

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 03:33 PM

Another month, another glaring reminder that most US consumer spending is funded by credit cards.

The latest consumer credit report was published by the Fed today at 3pm and it showed that in November, total credit increased by $27.962BN to $4.757 trillion, above the $25BN consensus estimate, and a number which would have been bigger than last month’s pre-revision increase of $27.1BN, had it not been revised modestly higher to $29.12BN.

While the number was big, it wasn’t nearly as big as some recent monthly increases, and that had to do with the composition: starting with non-revolving credit, or student and auto loans, the November increase was a relatively modest $11.5BN, the lowest since August, and below the LTM average of $16.7BN.

Then again, with $3.57 trillion in non-revolving debt already, a modestly slowdown is certainly welcome even if next month we are confident we will see a more than compensative surge in auto and student loans.

The more notable change in consumer credit in November, or the month when holiday spending really kicks in, was in revolving credit, i.e., credit card debt. And it is here that the US consumer again showed what happens when there are no stimmies to fund America’s favorite pastime, shopping.

According to the Fed, the November increase in credit card debt was a whopping $16.5 billion, more than 60% higher than October’s $10 billion, and also the 4th highest monthly print this century, with just March 22, April 22, and August 22 modestly higher.

But while we have previously discussed the danger of soaring credit card debt, the far more scarier component in today’s consumer credit report is the disclosure on average credit card interest rates: the data series, a relatively new addition to the Fed’s G.19 statement, showed that in Q4 2022, the avg rate on all credit cards soared to 19.07% (and while the actual rate on credit card accounts assessed interest was even higher at 20.40%, we picked the former to be conservative), the highest since records exist in 1995.Source: Federal Reserve

The combination of record high credit card debt and record high credit card interest is nothing short of catastrophic for both the US economy, and the strapped consumer who has no choice but to keep buying on credit while hoping next month’s bill will somehow not come. Unfortunately, it will and at some point in the very near future, this will also translate into massive loan losses for US consumer banks; that’s when Powell will finally panic

end.

(zerohedge)

end

CALIFORNIA/

Torrential rains batter California

(zerohedge)

Torrential Rains Trigger Flash Floods Across California

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 07:50 AM

Since the end of December, a ‘parade of cyclones’ has swamped California. The latest round of torrential rain has caused flooding in Los Angeles County, and still unclear in the early morning hours of Tuesday the extent of the destruction, though social media video on Monday evening shows flooded streets, overflowing streams and rivers, and mudslides in what is usually a dry, sunny place where residents have to worry about drought.

National Weather Service said 34 million people are under flood alerts across Southern and Central California through early Tuesday. In Los Angeles County, a flood warning is in effect through the evening. 

Forecasters estimate the latest round of rain could bring upwards of 5-10 inches in some areas by the end of this week. 

More stormy weather is forecasted for today. NWS said heavy precipitation is expected this morning and will begin to taper later in the day, warning a new and “energetic” low-pressure system was becoming more powerful offshore.

Officials said Los Angeles and San Diego residents faced an increased risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm-strength winds were also forecast for San Luis Obispo County. Parts of Highway 101, which runs up and down the West Coast, were closed due to flooded-out sections of the major roadway. 

Santa Barbara County told residents to shelter in place and closed public schools today. Officials told wealthy residents of Montecito, such as Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, to evacuate because of the flooding.   

And it was just only six months ago ‘global warming’ alarmists and celebrities were complaining about droughts… 

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that storms had caused 14 deaths. He said that figure was higher than deaths caused by “wildfires in the past two years combined.”

The endless deluge is due to an atmospheric river leaving low altitudes with record amounts of rain and high altitude with feet of snow. In the Sierra Nevada, a mountain range in Eastern California, some areas received 1 to 4 feet of snow. 

Most of California has seen rainfall totals in the past few weeks up to 600% higher than average, according to NWS. AccuWeather said the storms have already caused more than $1 billion in losses and damages. 

end

The markets will break before the Fed its 6%

(zerohedge)

Jamie Dimon In Favor Of A Fed Rate Hike Pause, Sees 50% Odds Rates Hit 6%

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 10:15 AM

One day after two Fed speakers spooked markets (which have a 15 millisecond memory and are constantly surprised by the exact same things they have priced countless times already) by saying something they have said on many previous occasions, namely that the Fed will have to hike above 5% and hold there for a long time (which, of course, a casual glance at the latest dot plot made very clear, even if the market keeps mocking the Fed’s always wrong predictions), the second most influential voice in US finance after Powell, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, chimed in saying that while the Fed’s rate hikes might need to go beyond what’s currently expected (markets currently expect the terminal rate at just below 5%), he’s in favor of a pause to see the full impact of last year’s increases.

There’s a 50% chance current expectations are correct in assuming the Fed will boost its benchmark rate to about 5%, and a 50% chance that the central bank will have to go to 6%, the JPM chief executive officer said in an interview aired Tuesday on Fox Business.

“I’m on the side that it may not be enough,” Dimon said. “We were a little slow getting going. It caught up. I don’t think there’s any harm done by waiting three or six months.”

Dimon spoke two days ahead of the December CPI data due at 830am ET on Thursday, and fourth-quarter results from top banks beginning Friday. Fed officials slowed their rate hikes last month, raising borrowing costs by 50 basis points after four consecutive 75 basis-point increases.

As Bloomberg notes, the wide-ranging interview took place Monday at JPMorgan’s annual health-care investment-banking conference in San Francisco — the first time it’s been held in person since before the pandemic. Dimon, who has been an advocate for employees coming into the office, said about 60% of JPMorgan’s workforce does so full-time and “about the rest” are there half the time.

On the economy, Dimon reiterated comments he made throughout much of last year, saying that while the consumer is still strong, heightened risks remain. He cited the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and quantitative tightening.

Unlike peers such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley, both of which have been aggressively laying off employees, JPMorgan remains “in hiring mode,” Dimon said, adding that he understands why firms are being cautious. He said wage pressure has waned a bit as attrition levels ease.

END

Mises talks about the lying on the jjobs data:

Biden Is Lying About The Jobs Data

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 02:05 PM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

The personal savings rate is near seventeen-year lows. Credit card debt is at record levels. Millions of prime-age workers have quit the job market, and full-time employment continues to wither.

On the other hand, the Biden Administration wants you to think things have never been better. 

Last week, following the release of December’s jobs data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden crowed that “Real wages are up in recent months … and we are seeing welcome signs that inflation is coming down as well.” Biden concluded by saying “it’s a good time to be a worker in America.”

Unfortunately, things aren’t nearly as good as the White House and its accomplices in the corporate media would have us believe. 

It’s only a “good time” to be a worker in America if one equates falling real wages and falling full-time employment with “robust” employment conditions. 

Moreover, the numbers that the administration continued to cherry-pick to burnish its political image are themselves quite suspect. Response rates to employment surveys sent out by the BLS have gone into steep decline, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve has recently accused the BLS of vastly overstating employment growth in 2022. 

A more sober look at broader economic trends continues to point toward economic pain in 2023, and there is less reason than ever to think that the Federal Reserve will engineer a fabled “soft landing” for the economy after years of record-breaking monetary inflation. 

Falling Real Wages, Falling Full-Time Employment 

In spite of what Biden may say, real wages in the United States fell, year-over-year from April 2021 to November 2022. That’s likely to also be the case for December once we get the inflation growth numbers for December. Put another way, wages are falling in real terms because the inflation rate has been outpacing wage growth during all that time. Nominal wage growth actually slowed in December according to the new BLS numbers, so unless the inflation rate suddenly collapsed to below 4.5 percent in December—which is unlikely—we will find that real wages fell in December for the twenty-first month in a row. 

Another factor pointing to weakness in job markets is the fact that the number of full-time workers fell in December. Nearly all of the gains in workers were part time.

Specifically, full-time employees dropped by 1,000 workers while part-time workers rose by 679,000 (month-over-month). The total gain in all workers for the period was 717,000. Moreover, the overall trend since 2021 is one in which growth in full-time work in general is falling—and turning negative in some months—while part-time employment represents most of the growth. 

What does this mean overall? David Rosenberg summed it up in a recent tweetthese are jobs “gains” characterized by part-timers, side giggers, and multiple job holders:

An important aspect of the “household survey” Rosenberg mentions is that it considers part-time workers and barely-employed self-employed people as among the “employed” on a par with full-time workers. Yet, when we consider the reality of slowing wages combined with a lack of growth in full-time workers, one suspects that the employment situation isn’t exactly lucrative for a great many workers. There is also good reason to believe that many workers who are now taking on part-time work are doing so because the cost of living has increased substantially. For example, over the past year, the average hourly wage increased 4.6 percent while CPI prices rose 6.4 percent. Workers are falling behind, and it’s hard to square this with Biden’s claim that workers are doing unusually well.

Stagnant Labor Force Participation

Another reason to suspect the labor market isn’t as great as we’re being told is the fact that total prime-age (i.e., age 25-49) workers are hardly flocking to join the labor force. People leaving the work force could be a sign of a very robust economy, of course, as people can scale back working hours when real wages surge.  But its extremely unlikely that’s what’s happening in our current period of rising costs, falling wages, and rising debt. 

In fact, the number of prime-age workers “not in the labor force” is still up from where it was before the covid panic of 2020. In January 2020, about 21.3 million workers labeled themselves “not in the labor force.” That is, these people reported not working for market income at all during the previous year. As of December, the number had risen to 22.2 million. Since the Great Recession began in late 2007, the number of workers not in the labor force is up by more than a million. Biden may think it’s a great time to be a worker in America, but apparently many prime-age workers don’t agree. 

This all reflect a larger historical trend in which workforce participation has fallen, with men especially prone to leaving the work force. This all helps to push down the unemployment rate as the pool of potential unemployed workers continues to shrink. 

“Jobs” vs. Employed People

But why is it that we keep hearing about how there is so much job growth? Those “good” numbers are based mostly on a separate job survey which looks only at the number of jobs created, as opposed to the number of employed persons. This means a large number of part-time jobs could be created, with few new employed persons, and this could be reported as robust job growth. In fact, in terms of cumulative employment growth since January 2021, we find a persistent gap between the two surveys. This gap narrowed in December 2022, but, as noted above, this was mostly driven by part-time work. In every month since April 2022, this unexplained gap between employed persons and “new jobs” has ranged from 96,000 up to 1.8 million:

This gap could theoretically be explained by a rising number of multiple job holders, but it seems this need not explain all of the gap, as it seems the establishment survey has been overestimating job growth considerably. According to a new report released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve the total number of new jobs added during the second quarter was closer to 11,000 than the 1.1 million that the establishment survey had shown. This doesn’t tell us much about the second half of the year, of course, but it does suggests there’s something very wrong with the survey that’s been repeatedly used to “prove” the job market is excellent.

The iffy numbers might have something to do with declining response rates to the BLS’s surveys. Since the covid panic, the surveys used to collect this data have seen sizable drops in response rates. The establishment survey (CES) response rate has fallen from 59 percent in early 2020 to 45 percent today. The “JOLTS” survey, which produces many rosy estimates about job openings, has fallen to a 30-percent response rate since 2020. In contrast, the Household Survey (CPS) still has a response rate over 70 percent. 

Without parsing the data sources, it’s impossible to guess how much the establishment survey’s narrowing data sources are affecting the numbers. In any case, the establishment survey is increasingly delivering estimates that appear questionable given larger economic indicators. The “good” employment data still leaves us wondering why the savings rate is falling and why disposable income is below trend. Why is credit card debt mounting if households are enjoying the fruits of a “strong” labor market? 

The writers of Biden’s press releases offer us no answers. Once we take a broader view, however, the numbers point to recession and declining fortunes for a great many of America’s workers. In November, the money supply actually fell, continuing a trend of rapidly falling money-supply growth. That’s a strong recession signal. An even more reliable recession signal is the yield curve showing the 3-month/10-year yield spread. When this goes negative, a recession has been assured in every case for decades. This spread is now the deepest in negative territory it’s been in more than 40 years

Misplaced Trust in the Federal Reserve

At this point, Wall Street and the regime are both banking on the hope that the Federal Reserve will engineer a “soft landing” through its monetary policy. The idea here is that the Fed will somehow figure out how to allow interest rates to rise just the perfect amount to rein in inflation while also not triggering a recession. This is hope based on fantasies, however. It’s entirely possible a recession may somehow be averted this year or next, but if that occurs, we hardly have any reason to assume the Federal Reserve planned it all. After all, the Fed has made it abundantly clear in the past two years that it has absolutely no special insights when it comes to economic trends or how monetary inflation will affect the economy. After record breaking amounts of monetary inflation in 2020 and 2021, Fed economists were still insisting that price inflation would be no problem and would be “transitory.” Numerous Fed economists from Neel Kashkari to Jerome Powell continued to state that the Fed should keep interest rates low well into 2022, or even into 2023.

By the end of 2021, however, it was clear the Fed has been very wrong about price inflation and was forced to raise rates and promise monetary tightening. Now, they continue to insist they can do so without triggering a recession. The Fed also continued to insist it has no data predicting a recession. This is just par for the course for the Fed which has always predicted good economic times even when the country is in recession. Ben Bernanke, for example, was still denying there would be any recession at all in 2008, even after the US had been in recession for months. 

In other words, the Fed is winging it, and the data points to both anemic jobs data and a stagnating economy. The Fed has given us every reason to believe it doesn’t even know what’s going on, and we certainly should not assume it has a secret plan to assure a robust economy into the future

USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES

SWAMP STORIES

This ought to be fun: classified documents found at President Biden’s think tank in Pennsylvania.

Some of the documents were labelled top secret and were dated when he was Vice president.  The Vice President cannot declassify documents

(zerohedge)

Classified Documents Found At President Biden’s Think Tank

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 07:00 PM

Classified documents from Joe Biden’s tenure as Vice President were found in early November at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, CBS News reports, citing two sources with knowledge of an inquiry launched by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

The investigation into the roughly 10 documents will be conducted by the US Attorney in Chicago (shocking!), according to the sources.

The classified material was identified by personal attorneys for Mr. Biden on Nov. 2, the day before the midterm elections, Richard Sauber, special counsel to the president confirmed. The documents were discovered when Mr. Biden’s personal attorneys “were packing files housed in a locked closet to prepare to vacate office space at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, D.C.,” Sauber said in a statement to CBS News. The documents were contained in a folder that was in a box with other unclassified papers, the sources said. The sources revealed neither what the classified documents contain nor their level of classification. A source familiar told CBS News the documents did not contain nuclear secrets. -CBS News

Remember when the DOJ raided former President Trump and made a huge deal about classified documents having been commingled with not-classified documents? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

According to Sauber, the White House counsel’s office notified the National Archives on the same day the material was discovered, after which the Archives took possession the next morning.

The discovery of these documents was made by the President’s attorneys,” said Sauber. “The documents were not the subject of any previous request or inquiry by the Archives. Since that discovery, the President’s personal attorneys have cooperated with the Archives and the Department of Justice in a process to ensure that any Obama-Biden Administration records are appropriately in the possession of the Archives.”

In charge of the investigation is John Lausch, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, who will seek to determine how the classified material ended up at the Penn Biden Center (which received $54.6 million in Chinese donations after the Biden Center was announced in 2016).

end

Investigating The Investigators

MONDAY, JAN 09, 2023 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

With House Republicans having decided on the Speaker, one of their next items of business is one that is well overdue: the formation of a new subcommittee on the “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” which would conduct a thorough investigation of abuses by federal law enforcement and national security agencies.  

According to a recent interview with Rep. Chip Roy, Speaker Kevin McCarthy has “committed to giving the subcommittee at least as much funding and staffing as the House special committee in the last Congress that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.”

It’s about time.

Of course, the very name of the subcommittee – the “Weaponization of the Federal Government” – suggests a wide-ranging inquiry that could look into the actions of a number of federal agencies – the FBI/DOJ, Department of Homeland Security, the CIA and NSA, etc. It would include efforts by the Biden Administration and FDA/CDC to eliminate unapproved speech about COVID-19 and how the FBI made sure social media companies, including Twitter, took down alleged misinformation about the 2020 election and had a part in the suppression of the Hunter Biden story.

And that’s just the more recent history of governmental abuses. What else is out there, still waiting to be uncovered? There is sure to be more. We just haven’t heard of it yet.

Then there are the federal abuses of their investigative powers, starting with the Russiagate fiasco. Yet even with Russiagate there’s much we don’t know. It’s either hidden under layers of classifications or kept secret as part of federal investigative steps. Or the evidence remains with the DNC and Crowdstrike, assuming it hasn’t been destroyed.

But if we could suggest areas of Russiagate-related focus for Congressional investigators – a long list that we’ve had to narrow down to things we’re personally most curious about – here’s where we would start. 1

  1. The DNC “Hack”

Topping the list is the holy grail of them all, the purported Russian hack of the DNC servers. Initially leading the investigation and response to the hack was no other than Michael Sussmann, the DNC/Hillary Campaign lawyer who would later draw charges from Special Counsel John Durham for lying to the FBI about other Russian information: the Alfa Bank/Trump connections.

As has been documented here and elsewhere, the investigation into the DNC hack was bungled from the start. The FBI never took possession of the DNC servers, instead relying on conclusions formed by DNC contractor Crowdstrike (which, by the way, was hired by Michael Sussmann on behalf of his clients). The FBI never obtained the complete reports from Crowdstrike. And even Crowdstrike had no direct evidence of exfiltration. As explained by Aaron Mate, the manner in which the Russian attribution is described by US intelligence officials signals that they “lacked concrete evidence for their Russian hacking claim.”

Part of the DNC hack inquiry would be further documentation of who at the FBI raised red flags about the investigation’s scope and seemingly pre-determined outcome. It would also get into who made the decisions. That gets us to the next topic.

  1. Corrupted Leadership of the FBI and DOJ

This is an admittedly broad category, covering years of investigative and prosecutorial decision. But its importance is underscored by what we have learned about how the dubious investigations they decided to pursue (like how they targeted Flynn) and how that leadership’s killed necessary investigative into witnesses damning to their “collusion” narrative.

With respect to the FBI, the Michael Sussmann trial revealed how FBI headquarters ordered there to be a “full field investigation” opened into the Trump-Alfa Bank allegations. This decision was made by the FBI’s 7th floor, including Director James Comey. And it was a significant step according to one FBI Special Agent: “In order to open a full field investigation, we would need specific and articulable facts that a threat to U.S. national security has occurred or there’s been a violation of federal law.” Based on what information did Comey possess to make that order?

The Sussmann trial also demonstrated that FBI Headquarters disapproved the request from FBI agents investigating the Alfa Bank allegations to interview the source of the information. Which FBI leader denied that request?

  1. Corruption of Special Counsel Mueller

Regarding the Mueller Special Counsel, one former FBI Intelligence Analyst testified that members of the Mueller Special Counsel took the position “to not investigate Mr. [Charles] Dolan.” (If you recall, Dolan was a Clinton ally who ended up being a source for the Steele reports.) This former FBI Intelligence Analyst explained:

“We had been instructed at SCO not to take further action on the matter involving Mr. Dolan and Mr. Danchenko’s relationship.”

By that time, the Mueller Special Counsel was aware the connection between Dolan and Danchenko and there were suspicions, if not direct knowledge, that Dolan had informed the Steele reports. The FBI asked Danchenko about Dolan on June 15, 2017 – before Mueller asked for the 4th FISA warrant on Carter Page, which was submitted to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court on June 29, 2017.

Later on, the Mueller Special Counsel would prevent the FBI agents under its supervision from investigating Dolan. One FBI Agent compiled a comprehensive report on Dolan and corroborated Dolan’s involvement in the Steele reports. She submitted that report to the Mueller Special Counsel and requested further investigation of Dolan. She was told that investigation “was not going to be opened.”  

It’s hard to overstate the importance of this inquiry. The instructions by Team Mueller to not investigate the Dolan-Danchenko relationship, and to shut down the investigation of Dolan himself, are informed by Team Mueller’s understanding of the consequences of those investigative steps: blowing up the Carter Page FISA warrants, exposing the deception to the FISA court, and the accountability from the FBI/DOJ/Mueller that would come from revealing the truth.

That’s just scratching the surface. Other matters that deserve inquiry include the wiping of Special Counsel phones (a potentially criminal act).

  1. The DARPA Connection

As documented by our friends Undead and Margot Cleveland, “The U.S. Department of Defense and private individuals pumping the Alfa Bank hoax also assisted former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump for supposed collusion with Russia.”

But there’s more to it than that, as provided by Cleveland in this must-read. There’s the allegation that these researchers helped assist with the “DNC attack attribution.” This raised a question from a member of Special Counsel John Durham’s team:

“Do you believe that DARPA should be instructing you to investigate the origins of a hacker (Guccifer_2.0) that hacked a political entity (DNC)?”

  1. The FBI’s 2018 deceptive letter to the FISA Court

In this letter, the FBI assured the FISA court that they found Danchenko to be “truthful and cooperative.” This was written after the FBI knew that Danchenko had lied to them, with his deception starting in January 2017.

That letter was purportedly reviewed by the FBI, which “confirmed its factual accuracy.” It still must be determined who at the FBI reviewed that letter and who vouched for the accuracy of Danchenko. Hopefully we can be provided answers.

  1. The CIA Collecting Information on President-Elect Trump

As we detailed in this article, in February 2017 the CIA received manipulated information and data from Michael Sussmann that purported to show that Trump, or Trump associates, “had suspicious interactions with internet protocol (IP) addresses affiliated with a Russian mobile phone provider.”

Currently, we don’t know what the CIA did with that information. Maybe they analyzed the data. Maybe that simply passed it on to the FBI. But, at a minimum, we should ask why the CIA was so willing to accept a meeting and take possession of information from a DNC lawyer that was allegedly damning to the President-elect. And there’s another important question: what else did they collect on American soil?

  1. Current Conflicts within the Office of Attorney General Garland

As we’ve reported, Jake Sullivan is a witness in the Durham inquiry, being there for the Clinton Campaign’s Fusion GPS misconduct. He was mentioned during the Michael Sussmann trial as one of the campaign staffers who received updates on the Fusion GPS “opposition research.”

Sullivan’s wife is Margaret Goodlander, who servers as counsel to AG Garland. We have strong reason to believe that Goodlander is keeping tabs on the Durham investigation. There’s a serious concern that she’s being provided non-public information on what happens in the Durham investigation. Totally improper for a government official who happens to be the spouse of a witness.

  1. Release the materials, the unredacted reports and 302s.

Let the public see what happened for themselves.

  1. Finally, and this one is unrelated to Trump/Russia – but how about House Republicans demand all CIA and FBI documents on Jeffrey Epstein?

We know they’re out there.

*  *  *

1. We’re limited on space and couldn’t include everything that should be investigated. We also note that Special Counsel Durham is looking into some of these very same issues. His report, whenever its submitted, may answer many of these questions.

Subscribe here…

END

As expected, Schiff, Swalwell and Omar are to be booted from their various committees as McCarthy cleans house.

(zerohedge)

Schiff, Swalwell And Omar To Get Boot From Committees As McCarthy Cleans House

TUESDAY, JAN 10, 2023 – 11:25 AM

Following the Monday passage of the House rules package, the next order of business will be “populating” the chamber’s committees.

And after Democrats weaponized Nancy Pelosi’s gavel over the last two years – booting GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar off committees over QAnon wrongthink and posting memes – Republicans are set to return the favor, with McCarthy expected to boot Reps. Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell and Ilhan Omar from their committees

Democrats are expected to name Schiff and Swalwell to the Intelligence Committee, and place Omar on Foreign Affairs, according to Punchbowl News, citing multiple Democratic leadership sources.

“Swalwell can’t get a security clearance in the private sector. I’m not going to give him a government security clearance,” newly minted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Punchbowl. “Schiff has lied too many times to the American public. He should not be on Intel.”

“I made all [three] cases before. It’s not like it’s anything new… Remember, this is what Nancy Pelosi, this is the type of Congress she wanted to have,” McCarthy added.

Swalwell notably banged an alleged Chinese spy who helped him fundraise in 2014. After an FBI briefing on the woman, the top Democrat said he cut all ties with the woman – Christine Fang, also known as Fang Fang.

In 2020 when the news broke, McCarthy called for Swalwell to be “removed from Congress.”

Schiff, of course, vehemently peddled the Russiagate hoax and played a large role in both impeachments of former President Trump (and claimed there was ‘more than circumstantial’ evidence that Trump colluded with Russia).

When asked about losing his seat, Schiff told Punchbowl that McCarthy “will adhere to the wishes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.”

And the Somali-born Omar has made anti-Semitic comments and probably married her brother in an immigration scam, according to the Daily Mail.

More via Punchbowl News:

Also: Texas GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington is the new Budget Committee chair. Arrington beat Reps. Buddy Carter (Ga.) and Lloyd Smucker (Pa.) to win the gavel in just his fourth term in the House.

Recap: Missouri Rep. Jason Smith is the new chair of the Ways and Means Committee. He beat Reps. Vern Buchanan (Fla.) and Adrian Smith (Neb.). North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx won another term as chair of the Education and the Workforce Committee. Check out our full coverage in Monday’s Midday and PM editions.

Isn’t this fun?

END

THE KING REPORT

he King Report January 10, 2022 Issue 6924Independent View of the News Stocks and bonds rallied smartly on Monday.  Unfortunately, commodities soared on China’s economic reopening (inflating).  Copper, WTI Oil, and gasoline jumped 3% or more. Grains prices soared on Brazilian unrest over what some Brazilians perceive as a fixed presidential election.
 
China issues second set of 2023 oil import quotas, up from 2022
China issued a second batch of 2023 crude oil import quotas, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter and documents reviewed by Reuters on Monday, raising the total for this year by 20% compared to the same time last year. According to the document from the Ministry of Commerce, 44 companies, mostly independent refiners, were given 111.82 million tonnes in import quotas in this round.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-issues-second-set-2023-oil-import-quotas-up-2022-2023-01-09/
 
Two other reasons for the rally on Monday: Q4 earnings season commences on Friday, with JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Delta, and United Health reporting results.  Traders have been conditioned to buy stocks, especially tech stocks & Fangs for earnings season.  Secondly, bulls expect the December CPI, released on Thursday, to be unchanged or negative.
 
Nasdaq leads Wall St higher as interest rate worries ease http://reut.rs/3Zm4Nic
 
The NY Fang+ Index soared as much as 4.8% on Friday.  The usual suspects are getting long Fangs and call options on Fangs because their PCs tell them to do so.  For decades, the pattern has been to buy Fangs and techs ahead of quarterly results because the companies almost always reported boffo earnings.
 
Fangs have been in a bear market for the past several months.  Short-term traders are getting long now solely on pattern trading – even though the underlying reason for past rallies might now be invalid.
 
In a WSJ article that appeared on Friday night, Nick Timiraos reported that retiring Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, an uber dove, said he hopes milder inflation data will allow the Fed to return to raising interest rates in the more traditional 25-basis-point increments starting with its February 1 meeting.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/retiring-chicago-fed-president-sees-path-for-slower-pace-of-rate-rises-11673045388
 
Two of the Fed’s biggest liberals, SF Fed President Daly and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, indicated that the Fed should hike rates only 25bps on February 1.  The usual suspects heralded the remarks – even though the market expects the Fed to hike rates only 25bps on February 1.  Fed fund futures show a 77% chance of a 25bp rate hike on February 1.
 
Please note the trend of Fed liberals issuing a dovish remark or two among their hawkish warnings.
 
Daly: Core Serviced Inflation Hasn’t Come Down Yet as Fed Would Like – BBG 12:34 ET
Daly: Declaring Victory Early and Stopping Could Worsen the Economy – BBG 12:42 ET
Daly: It’s Too Soon to Declare Victory and Stop Rate Hikes – BBG 12:44 ET
Fed’s Daly: We Don’t Need to See Inflation Get Down to 2% before We Hold – BBG 12:45 ET
Daly: We Don’t Know How Long the Lags in Monetary Policy Are – BBG
Daly: Terminal Rate above 5% Going to Be Likely – WSJ 12:48 ET
Daly: Raising Inflation Target Not on the Table Right Now – WSJ 13:04 ET
SF Fed President Daly Says 50 BPS or 25 BPS Are on Table for Next FOMC – BZG 12:50 ET
 
Bostic: Services Inflation Has Surpassed Goods Inflation as Problem – BBG 12:54 ET
Bostic: A Cooler CPI Report Could Put 25 BPS Hike on the Table –
Fed’s Bostic: I Think Inflation Can Fall to About 3% This Year, Though It Will Take Time for the Fed’s Policy Change to Play Out
Bostic Favors Hiking Rates to 5-5.25% Then on Hold Through 2024 – BBG 13:04 ET
 
ESHs and stocks soared early in NYSE trading.  Unfortunately, they peaked at the European close.  ESHs and stocks then methodically declined until 15:56 ET.  The S&P 500 Index fell below 3900, despite repeated attempts to resurrect it during the final 45 minutes of NYSE trading.
 
The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
A line from the minutes of the central bank’s December policy meeting released Wednesday afternoon was taken by analysts and economists as a warning to financial market participants that bets on a policy pivot in 2023 aren’t welcome….
   Here’s the line: “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”  In plain English? “Translated from Fedspeak, the FOMC members do not like stock market rallies, since they fear it could result in potentially inflationary consumer spending,” said Louis Navellier, president and founder of Navellier & Associates, in a Thursday note…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-doesnt-like-stock-market-rallies-11672945830
 
@NickTimiraos: New Fed research on economic news coverage. Three findings:
1) There is no significant negativity bias in economic news coverage
2) Consumption reacts to bad news but not to good news
3) Bad news is more informative and affects expectations more   https://t.co/KI8inthYR9
 
SEC fines former McDonald’s CEO for misleading investors about his firing https://t.co/njZxCu0soP
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks and bonds rallied smartly in early US trading
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks peaked at the European close and declined until 15:56 ET
The S&P 500 Index breakout did NOT generate a lasting rally
The possibility that the equity indices had a false breakout is high due to the persistent decline
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How can the Fed pause or pivot with the US Unemployment Rate at only 3.5%?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3916.83
Previous session High/Low3950.57; 3890.42
 
The US Keeps Offering China Its Covid Vaccines. China Keeps Saying No (Why?)
China has rebuffed repeated US offers to share advanced vaccines (mRNA)… China has never lacked access to mRNA shots… https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/news/world_nation/us-keeps-offering-china-its-covid-vaccines-china-keeps-saying-no/article_03ca87c0-47ed-5e7d-aacc-c7cf32e04e88.html
 
CDC Finally Released Its VAERS Safety Monitoring Analyses for COVID Vaccines via FOIA
And now it’s clear why they tried to hide them.  CDC’s VAERS safety signal analysis based on reports from Dec. 14, 2020 – July 29, 2022 for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines shows clear safety signals for death and a range of highly concerning thrombo-embolic, cardiac, neurological, hemorrhagic, hematological, immune-system and menstrual adverse events (AEs) among U.S. adults…
https://jackanapes.substack.com/p/cdc-finally-released-its-vaers-safety
 
@VigilantFox: RFK Jr Explains Why Fauci Had Such a Problem with Early Treatment: “There’s a little-known federal law that says, ‘You cannot give an emergency use authorization to a vaccine if there is any medication approved for any purpose that is shown effective against the target disease.'” https://t.co/FCiXokP5Lb
 
From the Twitter Files: Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb secretly pressed Twitter to hide posts challenging his company’s massively profitable Covid jabs
   On August 27, 2021, Dr. Scott Gottlieb – a Pfizer director with over 550,000 Twitter followers – saw a tweet he didn’t like, a tweet that might hurt sales of Pfizer’s mRNA vaccines. The tweet explained correctly that natural immunity after Covid infection was superior to vaccine protection. It called on the White House to “follow the science” and exempt people with natural immunity from upcoming vaccine mandates…It came not from an “anti-vaxxer” like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but from Dr. Brett Giroir, a physician who had briefly followed Gottlieb as the head of the Food & Drug Administration. Further, the tweet actually encouraged people who did not have natural immunity to “Get vaccinated!” No matter…
   Gottlieb stepped in, emailing Todd O’Boyle, a top lobbyist in Twitter’s Washington office who was also Twitter’s point of contact with the White House. The post was “corrosive,” Gottlieb wrote. He worried it would “end up going viral and driving news coverage.”…
  A week later, on Sept. 3, 2021, Gottlieb tried to strike again, complaining to O’Boyle about a tweet from Justin Hart…“Sticks and stones may break my bones but a viral pathogen with a child mortality rate of <>0% has cost our children nearly three years of schooling,” Hart had written. Why Gottlieb objected to Hart’s words is not clear, but the Pfizer shot would soon be approved for children 5 to 11, representing another massive market for Pfizer, if parents could be convinced Covid was a real threat to their kids…
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/from-the-twitter-files-pfizer-board
 
Moderna considers pricing COVID vaccine at $110-$130 – WSJ (original vaccine $15 to $16 per dose in supplier contracts…) https://news.yahoo.com/moderna-considers-pricing-covid-vaccine-185759883.html
 
New House GOP majority eyes select committee to push back against China threat
Republicans seek bipartisan cooperation in campaign to combat Beijing’s influence on a range of fronts, from Taiwan to Tik Tok… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/china-features-front-and-center-house-gop-agenda
 
CBS: U.S. attorney reviewing classified documents from Joe Biden’s vice presidency found at Biden think tank – Attorney General Merrick Garland has assigned the U.S. attorney in Chicago to review classified documents found at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement in Washington… The material was identified by personal attorneys for Mr. Biden on Nov. 2, just before the midterm elections (Covered up!)  (Has the scheme to keep Joe from running in 2024 commenced?)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-center-classified-documents/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=196611442
 
House Oversight chairman says discovered Biden classified docs displays ‘two-tier’ justice system
A stark contrast to the FBI’s raid of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home last year in search of classified documents…”This is further concern that there’s a two-tier justice system within the DOJ with how they treat Republicans versus Democrats…certainly how they treat the former president versus the current president,” Comer added… (Only a president can declassify materials, not a VP.)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-oversight-chairman-says-discovered-biden-classified-docs-displays-two-tier-justice-system
 
Today – As noted above, traders got very jiggy for Monday’s session due to Friday’s equity breakout, China’s new reinflation cycle, and pattern/conditioned buying for the imminent reporting of Q4 results.  The rally for earnings results tends to peak when the last of the Fangs issues results.
 
Unfortunately for trading bulls, organic buyers are still more concerned with recession than missing out on the next equity bull market or Fed Pivot.  After the early surge on Monday, equities declined sharply; the S&P 500 Index almost retreated into its prior trading range.  This jeopardizes the Friday equity breakout.  A down session for equities will increase the odds that the Friday equity rally was a false breakout.  ESHs are -6.50 at 20:45 ET because Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food is 4.0% y/y, 3.8% was expected; and Japan Household Spending, 2 or more person Households, declined 1.2%, +0.5% was consensus.
 
Expected economic data: Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.5; Nov Wholesale Trade Inventories 1.0% m/m, Sales 0.2% m/m; Powell, Bank of Canada Governor Bailey, ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel speak at Riksbank (Stockholm) 4:30 ET; Powell speaks again at 9:00 ET in Stockholm
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3906; 100-day MA: 3882; 150-day MA: 3908; 200-day MA: 3993
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,380; 100-day MA: 32,186; 150-day MA: 32,056; 200-day MA: 32,417
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3932.06 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3890.07 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden visits Mexico as House GOP eyes Hunter, bro’s below-border biz
Hunter Biden visited Mexico on apparent business trips at least six years in a row — from 2011 through 2016 — while his father was vice president, according to laptop records, and communications include references to his father, though details remain vague on the amount of money that changed hands and Joe Biden’s specific involvement…
   Cooper is a key potential witness who could illuminate the Biden family’s Mexican business interests and whether Joe Biden corruptly used his office to win financial benefits for his family. Cooper is a wealthy asbestos litigation lawyer and his business links to the Biden family date back to at least 2005…
   Cooper and Hunter Biden proceeded to partner on Mexican business pursuits involving the Slim and Aleman families.  Since at least 2011, Hunter hobnobbed with Mexican telecom billionaire Carlos Slim, who at one point was the world’s richest man…Then-Vice President Biden in 2015 hosted in Washington both Slim and the wealthy Mexican Aleman family, whom Hunter Biden and Cooper separately were courting… There are other Mexican threads involving the first family’s business ventures, including Jim Biden’s involvement and the unclear outcome of various pursuits, and Hunter’s relations with other Mexican businessmen… https://nypost.com/2023/01/09/biden-visits-mexico-as-gop-eyes-role-in-familys-below-border-biz/
 
@gekaminsky: Lobbyists for TikTok — which faces heightened scrutiny in Washington over national security concerns — have scored at least eight visits to Biden’s White House since July ’21, according to records reviewed by @dcexaminer
 
@Breaking911: Biden to Salvation Army worker: “I spent some time with the Secret Service in Poland and Ukraine… Sorry… I mean the Salvation Army..”  https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1612541379086880770
 
@RNCResearch: THROWBACK to the time Joe Biden claimed he almost walked on to an NFL team.  “I thought maybe I could make it in the pros.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1612538117860515840
 
Colorado Secretary of State Admits Mailing Over 31,000 Voter Registration Instruction Cards to Non-Citizens https://t.co/Ftpz6VsxzY
 
GOP Rep @claudiatenney: With a GOP majority in the House, this year is our chance to truly fight back and demand election integrity for all citizens in our nation.  As Co-Chair of the Election Integrity Caucus, that is going to be my focus every day.
 
Babylon Bee: Biden Declares The Southern Border As Secure As America’s Elections
https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-declares-the-southern-border-as-secure-as-americas-elections
 
Rep Gosar: ‘We Will Conduct an Investigation into Attempted Coup by Traitor Gen. Mark Milley and Pelosi’- “Milley’s treasonous sell-out to China will be investigated. Pelosi not warning members about intel of impending violence will be exposed.”… Gosar comments about Gen. Milley being a sell out to China comes a week after the Gateway Pundit reported that Bob Woodward’s new book Peril reveals “General Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chairman, told China in a secret phone call that he would give advance warning if the US was ever going to attack.”… https://t.co/mUtckiRuAR
 

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter  interviewing John Titus

After the Interview: 

I will see you TOMORROW

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