JAN 19/GOLD CLOSED UP $16.95 TO $1922.15/SILVER CLOSED HIGHER BY 24 CENTS TO $23.75//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $8.75 TO $1034.20//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $36.50 TO $1755.90//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//DR PAUL ALEXANDER; A MUST VIEW TODAY//SLAY NEWS/UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//FRANCE GRINDS TO A HALT DUE TO GOVERNMENT’S ATTEMPT TO CHANGE PENSION STATUS FROM 62 YRS OLD CITIZENS TO AGE 64//USA HOUSING STARTS PLUMMET//HUGE BUYER CANCELLATIONS IN NEW HOME CONTRACTS HITTING 68%//HUGE CHARGE OFFS IN DISCOVER CARDS DUE TO MASSIVE DELINQUENCY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

jan 19 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $16.95 at $1922.15

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.24  to $23.75

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1931.95

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.85

Bitcoin morning price:, 20717 DOWN 142 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,144 UP 285  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1034.02 DOWN $8.75

Palladium price; closing 1755.90- UP $36.50

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2600.00 UP $27.60 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1559.33 UP 14.95 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1784.04 UP 18.04

  euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,904.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/18/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/20/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 400
132 C SG AMERICAS 21
365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 969
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 2
661 C JP MORGAN 27
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
880 H CITIGROUP 1419
905 C ADM 4 1


TOTAL: 1,424 1,424
MONTH TO DATE: 4,375

JPMorgan stopped 0/1424

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   1424 NOTICES FOR 142400  OZ  or  4,429 TONNES

total notices so far: 4375 contracts for 437,500 oz (13.608 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 16 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4,335,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  951 for 4,755,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $16.95

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD //

INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 24 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 498.05 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1058 CONTRACTS TO 132,920 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR THE PAST MONTH, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.41 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A MONSTROUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2174 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD ZERO  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 0 CONTRACTS) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3.75 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GIGANTIC  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 80,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.870 MILLION OZ + 3.75 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 8.62 MILLION OZ////  V)  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –146

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 6343 contracts:   OR 31.715  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (519 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 31.715 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   31.715 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1058 DESPITE OUR   $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 970 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 OZ. JUMP  /  //NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 4.870 MILLION OZ + EFR 3.75 MILLION = 8.620 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 2028 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.14 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS HAVE BEEN HURT BADLY WITH SILVER’S HUGE RISE LATELY.

 WE HAD  16  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  80,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3010  CONTRACTS  TO 487,132 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1676  CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (4686 CONTRACTS)  WITH OUR  $1.95 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 1024 CONTRACTS OR 102400 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 13.608 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  $1.95 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2758 OI CONTRACTS (8.578 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 7444 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,132

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2758 CONTRACTS  WITH 4686 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7444 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2758 CONTRACTS OR 8.578 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7444 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4686) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2758 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 102,400 OZ /NEW STANDING 13.648 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)    FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

47,657  CONTRACTS OR 4,765,700 OZ OR 148.23 TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3971 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:148.23   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  148.23/3550 x 100% TONNES  4,16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    148.23 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A  GIGANTIC  SIZED 1058 CONTRACTS OI TO  132,920 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 970 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  970 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 970 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1058 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  970 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A MONSTROUS GAIN OF 2028 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.140 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 41 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.87 PTS OR 0.49%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 27.02 PTS OR 0.12%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 385.89 PTS OR 1,44%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7858//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7881//    /Oil DOWN TO 78.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.42   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4686 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 487,132 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.45

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 7444 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 7444 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7444   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2758 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7444 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 4686 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS  IN PRICE OF $1.95. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (13.648)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

JAN/2023: 13.648 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $1.95)  //// BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4434 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 13.791PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 102,400 oz  OR 3.185 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $1.95.  

WE HAD – XX CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4434 CONTRACTS OR 443,400 OZ OR 13.791 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 228,536//fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  253,813///fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 19//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil oz




 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
92,209.068  oz
2868 kilobars
HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today1424 notice(s)
142400 OZ
4.429 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  13 contracts 
  1300 oz
0.0404 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 4375  notices
437500
13.608 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into HSBC:  92,209.068 oz

2868 kilobars

total deposits: 92,209.068 oz

 customer withdrawals: 0

Total withdrawals: nil oz

total  0 oz

total in tonnes: 0  tonnes

Adjustments:1 Brinks:  37,502.217 oz dealer to customer  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1437 contracts having gained 313  contracts

We had 711 notices served on Wednesday, so we gained 700 contracts or an additional 102,400 oz(3.185 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump) 

February lost  15,260  contacts  to 219,756

March gained 143 contracts to stand at 939.

April gained 9,133 contracts up to 210,956.

We had 1424  notice(s) filed today for 142400 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  27  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  1424  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4375 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN.1427 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  1424 x 100 oz per contract equals 438,800 OZ  OR 13.648 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4375 x 100 oz+   (1427 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1424} x 100 oz} which equals 438,800 oz standing OR 12.648 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 13.648 TONNES  (A VERY STRONG STANDING FOR METAL//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,920,041.721 OZ   59.72 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,873,418.145 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,039,578.731 OZ     (343,37 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,833,839.414 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,119,537 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.65 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 19/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory808,396.457 oz
CNT
JPM
Brinks
Loomis































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory54,771.130 oz
Delaware















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)16 CONTRACT(S)  
 (80,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)7 contracts 
(35,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)967 contracts
 (4,820,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware  92,209.068 oz

Total deposits: 92,209.068 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 151.398 million oz/294.538 million =51.39% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of CNT: 23m098.397 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 583,481.200  oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 997.400 oz

iv) Out of Loomis:  200,818.900 oz 

Total withdrawals; 808,396.457 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 294.538 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 23  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 70  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 86 NOTICES

FILED ON TUESDAY SO  WE GAINED 16 CONTRACT(S) OR 80,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  BY THE BANKERS TO OBTAIN SOME SILVER OVER HERE. 

FEB> GAINED 23 CONTRACTS TO 188 CONTRACTS

March GAINED 616 CONTRACTS UP TO 110,588 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:16 for  80,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  63,421//good  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 85,243 contracts ( strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 964 x  5,000 oz = 4,820,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(23) and the number of notices served upon today 16 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 964 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (23 – number of notices served upon today (16) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.870 million oz  + 3.75 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 8.62MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:59,231// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,646 contracts ( very good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 910.98  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 498.05 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

Here We Go Again! It’s Time For Another Debt Ceiling Fight

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 09:00 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Here we go again.

The clock is ticking down to another US debt ceiling fight.

According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US government will officially bump up against the debt ceiling Thursday (Jan. 19).

The debt ceiling is “the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare Benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds and other payments.”

On Dec. 16, 2021, a law went into effect setting the new debt limit at $31.381 trillion. Once the government hits that debt level, it can no longer sell Treasuries or other debt instruments to fund spending.

But this doesn’t mean the government will simply shut down. The Treasury Department can implement “extraordinary measures” in order to continue funding government operations.

According to a letter Yellen sent to Congress, the Treasury will redeem existing investments and suspend future investments in the Civil Service Retirement Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. It will also suspend investment in a federal employee retirement system savings plan. According to Yellen, these moves will “reduce the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit and temporarily provide extra capacity for Treasury to continue financing operations of the federal government.”

It’s not clear how long the government can continue operating using these extraordinary measures. Most analysts estimate it will give Congress until sometime in June. It will depend somewhat on how much revenue the IRS collects this spring.

HISTORY

Congress imposed the first debt ceiling in 1917. The Second Liberty Bond Act capped debt at $11.5 billion. This was supposed to put some kind of restraint on government borrowing. Of course, it didn’t. Every time the debt approaches the ceiling, Congress simply raises it. Between 1962 and 2011, lawmakers jacked up the debt “limit” 74 times, according to the Congressional Research Service.

In 2013, Congress came up with a new trick. Instead of raising the debt ceiling, it just suspended it. In 2014, Congress set the debt limit with a built-in “auto-adjust.” The auto-adjust ended in March 2015 with the debt ceiling set at $18.1 trillion. After that, Congress simply suspended the debt ceiling three times.

After Congress set the current debt ceiling in December 2021, it took just 46 days for Uncle Sam to dig itself another $1 trillion in the hole, pushing the national debt above the $30 trillion mark. Less than a year later, in October 2022, the national debt pushed above $31 trillion, setting the stage for yet another debt ceiling battle.

And this one might be a doozy with Republicans controlling the House, Democrats running the Senate, and Joe Biden in the White House.

LOOKING AHEAD

Make no mistake, Congress will raise the debt limit. It will posture. It will bluster. It will play a dramatic game of chicken. We might even have to endure another fake government shutdown. But when it’s all said and done, Republicans and Democrats will reach some kind of compromise. They will not leave the current debt ceiling in place. That would mean default – something nobody is seriously willing to contemplate.

In an honest world, the US would just go ahead and default. There is no way the federal government will ever pay off a $31 trillion-plus dollar debt. The government can’t even get its budget deficits under control. The Biden administration is spending money at a half-a-trillion-dollar per month clip, and any talk of spending cuts by the Republicans is nothing but window-dressing. The GOP had ample opportunity to slash spending during the first two years of Trump’s administration when it controlled both the White House and Congress. Instead, it ramped up spending and ran massive deficits.

As Peter Schiff noted in a recent tweet, the feds are running a Ponzi scheme to keep the government solvent.

Given that the debt ceiling has never meaningfully restrained borrowing and spending, why doesn’t Congress just scrap it altogether?

I think there are two reasons.

  • First, doing away with the debt ceiling would expose America’s fiscal irresponsibility to the world. We all know the federal government has a spending problem. But the debt ceiling creates the illusion of responsibility. It’s like a magic trick. We all know it’s not really magic. It’s an illusion created by the magician. But we like to believe it’s magic. It makes us feel good. The debt ceiling is an illusion that allows Americans to feel like their “representatives” are acting responsibly.
  • Second, the debt ceiling is ready-made for political theater. And there’s nothing politicians love more than political theater.

Republicans and Democrats are already jockeying for position in the debt ceiling fight. Republican leadership is demanding spending cuts before it will consider lifting the ceiling. A week ago, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said,  “We will not be doing any negotiation.”

“I think it’s arrogance to say: ‘Oh, we’re not going to negotiate about anything,’ especially when it comes to funding. If anyone had a child and their credit card kept hitting the limit, you’d want to change the behavior,” Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R) said.

Yellen warned that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would have dire consequences.

Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the US economy, the livelihoods of all Americans, and global financial stability.”

Yellen’s not wrong. And this is exactly why Congress will raise the debt ceiling – or simply kick the can down the road by suspending it again.

In the meantime, brace yourself for hot political rhetoric and a lot of finger-pointing across the political aisle. We may even get another mythical government shutdown. But trust me, they won’t shut down any of the important things. The NSA will keep spying on you. The IRS will continue to collect taxes from you. The wars will rage on. And members of Congress will continue to collect their paychecks. There’s always money available for the things the government really wants to do.

The whole debt ceiling debate is nothing but political gamesmanship. So, grab a chair. Pop some popcorn. And enjoy the show.

end

“Reports Of Gold’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated”: BofA

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 10:55 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold posted a small gain in 2022, and it was one of the best-performing assets of the year. Nevertheless, there has still a perception in the mainstream that gold is dead. But that perception may be changing. In a recent note, Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer said gold will be a “mainstay” in portfolios over the next several years.

The yellow metal faced significant headwinds in 2022. The Federal Reserve’s “war on inflation” meant higher interest rates and a strengthening dollar. Widmer said these dynamics have “prompted some soul-searching among market participants” when it comes to gold.

However, we think calling the death of gold is premature.”

Widmer said he is bullish on gold in 2023 and he thinks the bullish environment will persist for several years.

The macro backdrop is turning bullish gold; taking a longer-term perspective, our analysis also confirms that the yellow metal can be a potent portfolio diversifier.”

What exactly is that macro backdrop? Bank of America head of US economics Michael Gapen said he anticipates a mild recession in 2023 and that easing inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to pivot away from its tight monetary policy.

We anticipate the recession will be mild by historical standards, lasting two to three quarters before resolving by the end of the year. With inflation falling and unemployment rising, we think the Fed could begin to cut its policy rate beginning in December 2023.”

Peter Schiff agrees that there is a good chance the Fed will cut rates this year. And he thinks there is an even better chance the central bank returns to quantitative easing, whether it cuts rates or not. But Schiff said the Fed won’t pivot for the reason mainstream analysts such as Gapen think. It won’t be because of a victory in the war against inflation.

No. They’re going to surrender. Inflation is going to win that war. The Fed is going to run to fight another battle — at least it’s going to try to fight because it’s going to lose that battle too. That battle is going to be recession, maybe financial crisis, maybe a battle to try to prop up the US government whose insolvency is becoming a bigger problem with rising interest rates.”

But no matter the reason, any Fed pivot is bullish for gold, and that’s why Wilmer thinks investors will have renewed interest in the yellow metal.

Gold is a non-yielding asset, so tighter monetary policy raises opportunity costs, which in turn does not provide an incentive to increase exposure to the yellow metal. This has been a reason why price movements have been so muted in 2022. That said, we outlined in the past week that the macro-economic backdrop is now increasingly bullish gold, which meant that outflows from ETFs have subsided.”

With the big run-up of bitcoin over the last couple of years, many people proclaimed gold was dead. But Wilmer noted that gold and crypto are now following very different trajectories and have become essentially uncorrelated.

…gold and cryptocurrencies have sometimes been seen as competing for investor attention, with concerns that assets like Bitcoin (BTC) could cannibalise liquidity from the gold market.

Of course, both crypto and gold can be a means of payment, a store of value and are “no-man’s liability”.

We agree that BTC and gold share some similarities, but with various caveat, for instance around performance differentials. Meanwhile, with emissions becoming a focus, we highlight that the environmental damage from mining BTC relative to its value has been much larger than for gold.

Bottom line: the blockchain technology is evolving fast and there is more to crypto than BTC. Yet, for now, we think Bitcoin is not a direct challenger to gold.

The BoA note also referenced the recent surge in central bank gold buying and pointed out that some countries are diversifying away from the dollar. Gold can serve several functions, including serving as a means of payment and a store of value. It also mitigates counterparty risk.

With the world becoming multi-polar, the latter point is important for central banks, especially in emerging markets. To that point, in the run-up to the war in Ukraine, Central Bank of Russia had reduced USD holdings while at the same time boosting exposure to gold.”

While I find Bank of America’s macroeconomic analysis lacking, we end up drawing the same conclusion – the Federal Reserve will take its foot off the accelerator and return to loose monetary policy. After all, the global economy is built on easy money, debt, and money creation. It simply can’t operate without it. As Jim Grant said“Certainly, the slowing rate of the rise in inflation is to be celebrated. It’s nice, but we are still left with a system that is inherently inflationary.”

At the end of the day, inflation and loose monetary policy are bullish for gold.

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

end

4. Other gold/silver commentaries

Global South: Gold-backed currencies to replace the US dollar

Robert Hryniak4:45 PM (10 minutes ago)
to

The reality is energy intensive businesses are leaving Europe forever and going to China to survive in the long term. Thereby bypassing the US which is seen as on brink of decline.
It is why the US should run from the Ukraine instead of rushing in as only hurt will come by diminished hegemony.
Whether we in the West appreciate or like it the world moved and shook the day the US decided to take Russia off Swift which was colossal error. And now that genie released will never be put back.
This will be changed reality that comes to each of us going forward.

https://thecradle.co/article-view/20532/global-south-gold-backed-currencies-to-replace-the-us-dollar


end

Commodity commentaries//GLOBAL FREIGHT

END

IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:EGGS

Avian Flu Is Crushing Farmers

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 04:30 PM

Authored by Salena Zito via The Epoch Times,

The public’s pocketbooks have been hit hard by the skyrocketing cost of eggs in the last few months. Prices have doubled and, in some places, tripled over what they cost a year ago—if you can even find them in your local grocery store.

The average cost of a dozen eggs in the United States is over $4.25, more than twice what it was just a year ago. Options such as cage-free eggs or organic go for over $7. Inflation is a part of the reason, but the agriculture industry says the bigger cause is the outbreak of the avian flu here in the United States a year ago; nationwide, it has affected nearly 60 million birds—nearly 5 million of them here in Pennsylvania.

American consumers love their eggs. The food staple is highly regarded by every walk of life for its simplicity and accessibility; for some families, it is their major source of protein. For others, it is the most important ingredient in baking and the central element in preparing casseroles, pasta, and numerous other dishes.

For many of us, it is hard to make a meal without an egg, so of course consumers are deeply affected by this. However, there is another side of that story that we are not examining. That is the equally devastating economic impact this is having on American poultry farmers and all of those who work with them. Their lives, livelihoods, and family legacies have been upended and even destroyed by the avian flu, a worldwide outbreak that shows no signs of subsiding.

Stopping the spread of avian flu is like chasing a ghost.

The virus spreads easily through wild birds—in particular migratory birds that fly across the country, spreading it along the way with droppings that infect farm animals.

Farmers have to take drastic measures. Any interaction with the public is risky. And if even one bird is infected within a 6-mile radius of where an outbreak has occurred, the consequences can be devastating.

Chris Pierce, a member of a multiple-generation poultry farm family and president of the poultry management group Heritage Poultry in Annville, said he works with 120 poultry farms in Pennsylvania with management services that provide veterinarian nutritionists to assist the health and productivity of the farmer’s flocks that they service.

“The biosecurity measures all of the farmers infected or not, like not having visitors on your properties—covering your workers from head to toe in bio suits and constantly and meticulously disinfecting equipment, clothing, buildings, walls, tires—is expensive and mind-numbing,” he said. “Even the simplest thing such as a fertilizer truck or a delivery from UPS or Amazon or your children’s school bus can track the disease onto a farm and destroy their flocks, their income and their family’s legacy.”

“We’ve lost two of our family farms out of the 120 with the avian influenza in April of 2022,” he said. “If you are an area poultry farmer, your focus is on keeping birds healthy and caring for them because the birds cannot care for themselves. So that involves making sure all of the equipment in the barns, the feeders, the water system, the ventilation, the lighting systems is all safe because as an egg farmer, your No. 1 priority is the health and safety of your birds. It’s your income.”

Pierce says those are the things a poultry farmer can control. “When a disease you cannot control hits your farm, like the avian influenza, that can happen when there are 30,000 snow geese flying over your farm that have feces coming out. That’s when the uncertainty starts to unravel their lives and livelihoods,” he said.

Pierce also points to neighbors’ bird feeders and bird baths or homesteaders or families who purchase chickens to save money who don’t take the same stringent precautions as farmers do. These can inadvertently become a spreading source of the avian flu.

Pierce said having to isolate from everyone has devastated many of these farmers who rely on community and social gatherings such as church services, school functions, and festivals as part of their emotional well-being. The measures these farmers take are so drastic that many of them refuse to leave their farms for fear of picking up a particle on the tread of their tires or their shoes and then bringing it back to their farms and infecting their flocks.

“Then there is this constant fear and really a sense of hopelessness that despite all of the precautions, all of the economic and emotional toll, all of the hardships that this epidemic has had on poultry farmers, even more birds are going to die this upcoming season,” Pierce said.

Pierce is correct to be worried about the isolation, uncertainty, and fear that farmers are experiencing. These emotional impacts are rarely discussed in the farming community and in our culture, even though farmers and ranchers are nearly twice as likely to die by suicide as any other occupation, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Pierce said farmers are always affected by things that are out of their hands. “The weather, politics, global markets, commodities, trade, and the whims of newest food fad that influences the American consumer,” he explained. “The avian flu just adds to that uncertainty.”

For the first time in recent memory, poultry farmers in Pennsylvania, of which there are thousands, were not featured at the Pennsylvania Farm Show because of the deep precaution that local poultry farmers took to keep their flocks free of infection.

Chris Herr is the executive director of PennAg Industries, the trade group that represents over 500 agribusinesses and farms across Pennsylvania. He said he spent several days as a volunteer late last year euthanizing poultry whose farm had been infected. “It takes a toll on you, having to senselessly kill these birds,” he said, adding that he has spoken to several farm families who don’t know if they can take another year of this.

“The emotional impact of this isn’t just the killing of the poultry; it is also not being able to leave your farm. You know that fear is gripping to someone who understands that one trip to the store in town and a dropping from a migrant bird or something airborne might infect your entire livelihood.”

Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) was recently touring the massive Pennsylvania Farm Show with his newly named agriculture secretary, Russell Redding, a holdover from the Wolf administration. Both men said the issue remained a top priority heading into the new governor’s administration.

“There is the cost to the consumer, which is a big concern, but there is also the concerns of our poultry farmers that we our making our priority,” said Shapiro.

Pierce said that Redding, along with the state legislature, did a phenomenal job last Spring. “What they did and the challenges they had were handled very well. I am concerned as we head into what looks to be yet another year of this avian influenza this spring—can they do it again?” said Pierce.

This spring, the flu is expected to maintain its intensity across Pennsylvania. Indeed, Pierce mentioned that 20 percent of the testing done on the eggs in this country were conducted in the state’s labs.

“Our state is the No. 1 state in the country in USDA organic poultry,” Herr said. “This is an important industry, and it’s a point of pride for a lot of these farmers whose family has been doing this for two, three, four generations.”

Pierce says there are thousands of poultry farms in Pennsylvania alone. Some are small 30-acre farms; some are much larger. “There are a lot of niche markets in Pennsylvania,” he said. “We need to be able to have all of them communicate with each other. One outlier can take down an entire industry.”

-END-

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

END

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO  6.7858

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7881

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.87 PTS OR  0.49%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 27.02 PTS 0.12%  

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 385.89 PTS OR 1.44%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  102.06 Euro RISES TO 1.0816 UP 19 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.401!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.55/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.076%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.846%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.054…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.014//

3j Gold at $1907.60//silver at: 23.35  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  12/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.87//

3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and  84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 128.55/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .401% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9166– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9913 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.397% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.563 UP 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,80…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.3715 % UP 6 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Slide With Treasuries As Recession Fears Mount

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:05 AM

One day after the S&P had its worst day since Dec 15, failing to hold the 200dma, US equity futures entered Thursday extending recent losses with a third straight session in the red as renewed recession fears and the start of the earnings season weighed on risk appetite, sparking a risk-off tone that spread across global markets, from Japanese shares to oil contracts, sent bond yields lower and hit commodities. Pre-market Mega Caps and Metals/Miners were the biggest laggards. The dollar was flat, the VIX jumped above 21, and 10Y yields reversed earlier losses. The macro focus for today includes housing data, Philly Fed, and 3x Fedspeakers. Plus, there is a 10Y TIPS auction and NFLX kicks off MegaCap Tech earnings.

Contracts on the S&P 500 edged down 0.8% as of 7:30 a.m. ET and contracts for the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.7%.Stoxx 600 gauge halted a six-day rally. Most Treasuries erased gains, and the euro advanced, as hawkish remarks by ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot reaffirmed the central bank’s aggressive stance.

In pre-market trading, Discover Financial Services tumbled 6.4% as the company reported higher-than-forecast charges for the fourth quarter. Roblox Corp. slumped after the global gaming platform’s stock was downgraded to underweight from equalweight at Morgan Stanley, which expects slower bookings growth in the second half of the year. Freeport McMoRan also fell as copper resumed its losses. Philip Morris rose 1.2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy, citing the outlook for reduced-risk products in the tobacco industry. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Alcoa shares slide 6.5% in US premarket trading after the aluminum and bauxite producer’s adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter fell short of analyst expectations, stoking worries that lower prices for aluminum and higher material and production costs were taking their toll.
  • CureVac gains 10% as UBS upgrades the stock to buy and more than doubles its price target, calling the Jan. 6 announcement on messenger RNA vaccines for flu and Covid-19 a “major de-risking” event.
  • Keep an eye on Chegg Inc. as KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Jason Celino raised the recommendation to overweight from sector weight, citing Ebitda margin upside over the next 12 months.
  • Watch Alpine Immune Sciences after it was initiated with an overweight rating at Morgan Stanley, which said the biotech’s ALPN-303 treatment for autoimmune diseases is “underappreciated” and has broad potential.
  • Oppenheimer says it expects the US housing market to get worse before it gets better but that the backdrop is not as bad for homebuilder stocks as investors may expect. It initiates PulteGroup (PHM US) and Toll Brothers (TOL US) at outperform, Tri Pointe (TPH US) and DR Horton (DHI US) at perform.

The S&P 500 had gained more than 4% in the first two weeks of the year on bets of easing inflation and as China reopens from Covid restrictions, a near-record short squeeze – which is now reversing – also helped. But this rally is now beginning to fizzle as data releases signal a decisive slowdown in the rest of the world. Reports from the US showed declines in consumer demand and business investment, boosting the probability of a recession in the world’s largest economy. That, however, didn’t deter Federal Reserve officials from reaffirming the need for tighter monetary policy.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy was not yet in restrictive territory and projected a forecast rate of up to 5.5% by the end of the year in the Fed’s dot plot projections. is “almost” in restrictive territory but not quite. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed needs “keep going” and Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker repeated his view of lifting interest rates in quarter-point increments “going forward.”

“This weakness in equity markets will continue a bit longer in this first quarter of the year as the market reprices what the Fed will do,” Sailesh Jha, the chief economist and head of market research for RHB Banking Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

“We think it remains possible that the rally is a ‘head fake,’ and that economic data will ultimately disappoint,” said UBS Global Wealth Management strategists, including Mark Haefele. “It remains too early to assume that the inflation threat has fully passed.”

European stocks are lower and on course to snap a six-day winning streak – the longest streak of gains since November 2021 – as evidence mounts of a slowdown in global growth. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.1% with miners, energy and consumer products leading declines. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that inflation remains far too elevated, vowing that policymakers won’t let up in their efforts to return price growth to the target. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Belimo shares rise as much as 6.3% after FY22 sales beat consensus and the company’s own expectations, according to Baader, which expects another good year for the Swiss firm
  • Auto Trader shares rise as much as 3.4% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, citing appealing valuations and recovering auto sales revenue
  • Meltwater shares rise as much as 33%, to NOK17.65, after Altor and Marlin said they intend to offer NOK18 per share for the application software company
  • Deliveroo shares jump as much as 8.6% after the food delivery firm says its adj. Ebitda was almost breakeven in 1H, previously guided to be between 2H 2023 and 1H 2024
  • Hypoport rises as much as 9.7% on Thursday after Hauck & Aufhaeuser double upgrades to buy from sell and lifts price target by almost 180% on “game changing” messages in its 4Q report
  • Virbac shares jumped as much as 6.7% after the French health-care services provider reported positive fourth-quarter sales and outlook after the market close on Wednesday
  • Allfunds shares fall as much as 7.5% as HSBC cuts its rating on the wealth platform to hold from buy, saying 2023 is likely to remain challenging
  • Orsted shares drop as much as 4.1% after Oddo downgraded the Danish utility to neutral from outperform, citing a fairly uninspiring outlook and no margin for error in the last quarter
  • Boohoo shares drop as much as 8%, the most since Dec. 14, after the online clothing retailer said in a trading update that it would see a year-on-year decline in revenue
  • Metso Outotec shares slip as much as 3.1%, the most since Dec. 7, as Pareto cuts the mining and industrial equipment group to hold from buy after a strong recent performance

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as Japanese shares gave back the gains made after the central bank left policy settings unchanged Wednesday, while Chinese tech giants retreated on worries about insider selling. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9% on Thursday, poised to snap a two-day rally. Japanese equities were the biggest drags to the regional benchmark as weak economic data from the US raised concerns over a slowdown and as the yen strengthened. The Topix Index fell 1% to 1,915.62 as of the 3 p.m. market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.4% to 26,405.23. Toyota Motor contributed most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 596 rose and 1,436 fell, while 129 were unchanged. “In the end, it all comes down to the big question of how the US economy is doing,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Tokyo Securities. “The US earnings season has just started and we will watch the overall movement of US stocks.” A gauge of Chinese technology stocks fell more than 1% after Kuaishou Technology’s co-founder sold some of his stake, fueling concerns that corporate insiders may be cashing out after the sector’s recent rally.

“In general, the market is concerned about the perception of an insider opportunistically selling after a recent rally. This concern is compounded when someone significant like a co-founder is selling,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. The soft US retail sales in December also added to concerns about economic growth, countering optimism that the Federal Reserve may start to ease its monetary tightening. That might create headwinds for Asian equities after their outperformance over US and European peers in the past few months. “Tempering optimism with cautionis not just prudent, but arguably necessary,” said Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “Further tightening into 2023 will necessarily build on tail risks of a hard landing that accompanies a tightening cycle as pronounced as this one.”

Australian stocks gained: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,435.30, swinging from an earlier loss, after employment unexpectedly fell last month while the jobless rate remained unchanged, sending the currency and bond yields lower as traders pared bets on a February interest-rate increase. The benchmark closed the highest since April 22, boosted by strength in mining shares and banks.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 11,885.64. Earlier, the nation’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced she is stepping down in a shock resignation ahead of a general election later this year

India stocks declined as earnings of makers of consumer staples and durables continue to signal slowing consumption, while elevated costs weaken sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 60,858.43 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index eased by a similar measure. For the week, the gauges have ease risen nearly 1%, mainly helped by software exporters, as most of reported strong profit growth for the latest quarter.  Asian Paints fell 2.7% as India’s biggest paint producer reported December-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates, with the company saying that extended monsoon impacted its volumes, sapping sales. Reliance Industries will release numbers on Friday. Fourteen of the 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by utilities, while oil & gas index was the top gainer, helped by advances in state-run oil marketers that benefit from easing crude prices

In FX, the BBG Dollar Index was little changed and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, while the yen is the best performer among the G-10s, rising 0.4% versus the greenback; the euro adds 0.3% after ECB’s Knot said he expects multiple 50bps hikes. His comments also pushed German 10-year bonds into negative territory while the US and UK equivalents hold on to small gains.

  • The euro rose to a day-high and the region’s front-end yields extended a rise after ECB Governor Christine Lagarde reaffirmed ambitions to get inflation back to target. ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot earlier said there’ll be more than one half-point increase in interest rates, with the inflation situation still “not satisfactory”. Money markets rapidly added further tightening bets
  • The pound pared Wednesday’s rally. House prices in the UK slid for a third consecutive month in December according to a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which adds to concerns that the nation’s housing market is likely to tumble this year. The gilt curve twist-flattened
  • Norway’s krone pared losses after the central bank kept its policy unchanged, as forecast by the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey. It signaled a likely quarter- point increase in borrowing costs in March is still needed to bring inflation under control
  • The Aussie and Kiwi were the worst G-10 performers. The Aussie dropped nearly 1% to a one-week low of 0.6875, after data showed employers cut jobs in December, when economists expected a job gain of 25,000. Australia’s bonds extended opening gains and traders dialed back expectations of a February rate hike
  • The yen strengthened as US yields dropped. Japan’s bonds were mixed. An auction of new 20-year debt received strong demand
  • Foreign selling of Japan’s bonds accelerated in the past week as the yield on the benchmark 10- year government bond rose and the Japanese yen strengthened

In rates, Treasuries initially advanced across the curve, but later gave up the gains. As of 8:00am ET, Treasuries from belly to long-end are slightly cheaper on the day after erasing gains. Slide was led by bunds following hawkish remarks by European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot. Asia-session gains tracked a rally in Australian bonds sparked by weak employment data. US front-end yields are little changed with longer maturities cheaper by 1bp-2bp, steepening 2s10s spread by ~2bp; 10-year around 3.39% lags German counterpart by ~3bp. Treasury auctions Thursday include $17b 10-year TIPS sale at 1pm New York time. The dollar issuance slate includes two deals so far; Wednesday volumes were light given many corporate issuers are in self- imposed quiet periods before reporting earnings.

In commodities, oil fell for a second day as traders had to contend with US recession worries as well as another build in inventories. West Texas Intermediate dropped below $79 a barrel after declining almost 1% on Wednesday. IEA’s head Birol says he does not see tightness in (the oil) market currently but have to be aware of uncertainties, via Reuters; may see tighter markets in 2023, more than some others may think. If China’s economy rebounds this year as expected, will see stronger demand that will pressure the market. Russian oil exports seem more resilient than initially thought but will fall further in Q1 and beyond. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,910/oz. Copper fell 1.4% in London trading

Bitcoin is little changed overall with numerous speakers ahead including ECB’s Knot explicitly on crypto, currently holding within USD 20.6k-20.8k parameters.

Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot, Fed Vice Chair Brainard, and the Fed’s Collins and Williams. In addition, the ECB will be publishing the account of their December meeting. Otherwise, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, December’s housing starts and building permits, along with the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for January. Finally, earnings releases include Procter & Gamble and Netflix.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,930.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 454.23
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 166.17
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 544.50
  • Nikkei down 1.4% to 26,405.23
  • Topix down 1.0% to 1,915.62
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 21,650.98
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,240.28
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 60,889.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,435.31
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,380.34
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.03%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0821
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $84.30/bbl
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $84.30/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,911.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 102.17

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • UBS Asset Management and Schroders Plc are sticking with bets Japanese government bond yields will rise on the expectation the BOJ will eventually stop capping the 10-year benchmark at 0.5%, even after it kept the so-called curve control policy unchanged Wednesday. Torica Capital Pty also expects the central bank to fall in line and shift toward the global trend of raising rates
  • The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars
  • Strikes coordinated by French unions aim to bring much of the country to a standstill on Thursday in a protest against government plans to revamp the pension system and a test of president Emmanuel Macron’s ability to resist street pressure
  • Foreign funds sold a record amount of Chinese bonds in 2022 mainly due to the nation’s wide yield gap with the US. Analysts are now weighing the outlook for the nation’s debt amid a potential Federal Reserve pivot and a reopening-led jump in yuan bond yields

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with most major indices rangebound following the negative lead from Wall St, where risk sentiment deteriorated after a slew of disappointing US data and hawkish Fed rhetoric. ASX 200 climbed above 7,400 with the index led by miners after an increase in BHP’s quarterly iron ore output although gains were capped by disappointing jobs data and losses in the energy sector amid a pullback in oil prices and with Santos pressured due to a reduction in its FY output guidance. Nikkei 225 underperformed after markets mostly faded the BoJ-rally with many viewing the central bank’s decision to refrain from policy adjustments as a fleeting effort to delay the inevitable. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses with price action cautious as the upside in the property sector counterbalanced the notable weakness in the large tech names.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese President Xi expressed concern about the spread of COVID-19 to rural areas as China heads towards the Lunar New Year, according to FT.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said the government will scrap the quarantine order for people infected with COVID-19 from January 30th, according to Reuters.
  • New Zealand PM Ardern announced to step down on February 7th and the Labour party is to vote on a new leader on January 22nd which Deputy PM Robertson will not stand in. Furthermore, PM Arden said she no longer has enough in the tank to do the job justice and that the general election will be held on October 14th.
  • China is preparing for a new trading link with Hong Kong for foreigners to hedge bonds; PBoC shared draft riles for the Swap Connect to Chinese financial institutions last month, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, as ECB officials continue to pushback on dovish reports. Sectors are all in the red with Basic Resources and Energy names lagging given underlying commodity pricing. US futures are lower across the board, as the ES continues to move below 4k ahead of more earnings and key Fed speak, ES -0.5%.

Top European News

  • ECB’S Knot says market developments of late are not entirely welcome, via CNBC; ECB won’t stop after a single 50bp hike, planning to hike by 50bp multiple times. No signs of underlying inflation pressures abating; core inflation shows no signs of abating. Currently only focused on the risk of doing too-little. Will be in “tightening mode” until at least mid-year.
  • ECB President Lagarde says economic news has become much more positive; may only see a small contraction in GDP in the Eurozone; 2023 will be better than feared. Will stay the course with rate hikes.
  • Irish PM Varadkar has said the 25th Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement was not an absolute deadline in law for the EU and UK to secure agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, according to RTE’s Connelly.

FX

  • DXY was seemingly capped on approach to 102.50 amid a general downturn in risk with the USD facing pressure from the Euro and Yen.
  • With the JPY continuing its post-BoJ reversal and EUR/USD comfortably reclaiming 1.08+ in wake of ECB’s Knot pushing back on earlier dovish reports.
  • Antipodeans are the stand-out laggards with Australian labour data and the unexpected resignations of New Zealand’s PM contributing; AUD/USD sub-0.69 and NZD/USD sub-0.64.
  • NOK experienced modest gyrations around 10.75 against the EUR post-Norges Bank, with this perhaps just an unwinding of the minority hawkish positioning going into the announcement.
  • Norges Bank holds its Key Policy Rate at 2.75% (vs. split expectation for 25bps/Unch. but bias towards unchanged), decision was unanimous; “The policy rate will most likely be raised in March”. Subsequently, Governor Bache says they have not yet made new forecasts for rate developments beyond March.
  • CBRT holds its Weekly Repo Rate steady at 9.00% as expected.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7674 vs exp. 6.7680 (prev. 6.7602).

Fixed Income

  • EGBs and particularly Bunds have retreated from initial peaks and have dragged Gilts and USTs lower in tandem.
  • Downside that was initially sparked by ECB’s Knot sticking to his hawkish lines and thereafter irrespective of well covered French and Spanish issuance.
  • USTs themselves have been dragged down to unchanged levels, with attention turning to a busy docket of Fed speak, with Brainard perhaps the highlight.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent March’23 futures are softer intraday with prices meandering around USD 0.50/bbl above APAC lows of USD 78.10/bbl and USD 83.76/bbl respectively.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude 7.6mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline 2.8mln (exp. 2.5mln), Distillate -1.8mln (exp. 0.1mln), Cushing 3.7mln.
  • Qatar Energy set March-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 1.37/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the lowest in 21 months, according to Reuters citing traders.
  • IEA’s head Birol says he does not see tightness in (the oil) market currently but have to be aware of uncertainties, via Reuters; may see tighter markets in 2023, more than some others may think. If China’s economy rebounds this year as expected, will see stronger demand that will pressure the market. Russian oil exports seem more resilient than initially thought but will fall further in Q1 and beyond.
  • LME CEO says there is untapped demand for trading in Asian hours, via CNBC.
  • Spot gold mirrors Dollar action but the yellow metal found some overnight support around the USD 1,900/oz mark but remains off yesterday’s 1,925.79/oz peak.
  • Citi released some metal forecasts this morning and upgraded its 0-3month copper and aluminium forecasts to USD 10k/T (prev. 7.8k/T) and USD 2.7k/T (prev. 2.35k/T) respectively.

Geopolitics

  • US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that the US announced an additional USD 125mln in funding to support Ukraine’s energy and electric grid against Russian attacks designed to leave millions without power during the winter months.
  • US is finalising a large package of military aid to Ukraine which officials said will likely total as much as USD 2.6bln, according to AP.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.63m
  • 08:30: Dec. Building Permits MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -11.2%, revised -10.6%
  • 08:30: Dec. Housing Starts MoM, est. -4.8%, prior -0.5%
  • 08:30: Dec. Building Permits, est. 1.37m, prior 1.34m, revised 1.35m
  • 08:30: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 214,000, prior 205,000
  • 08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -11.0, prior -13.8, revised -13.7
  • 08:30: Dec. Housing Starts, est. 1.36m, prior 1.43m

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Collins Speaks at Housing Conference
  • 13:15: Fed’s Brainard Discusses the Economic Outlook
  • 18:35: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Event in New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday saw the biggest risk-off move so far in 2023, with equities slumping and sovereign bonds rallying after the latest US data magnified recession concerns and raised the prospect the Fed wouldn’t be as aggressive with their rate hikes as expected. In particular, the US PPI for December surprised substantially on the downside, adding to hopes that inflation was durably on the way down. That theme was then cemented by weak reports on retail sales and industrial production, which only added to the arguments in favour of the Fed easing up over the coming weeks. In turn, that spurred a big surge for Treasuries, with the 10yr yield down -17.8bps to 3.37%, and a further -4.9bps move overnight down to 3.32%. That means it’s now more than -100bps beneath its intraday high for this cycle of 4.34% back on October 21, whilst the S&P 500 (-1.56%) saw its biggest decline in a month.

When it comes to the specifics, the PPI release for December came in at -0.5% on a monthly basis (vs. -0.1% expected), and the previous month’s growth was also revised down a tenth to +0.2%. This came as a big surprise to markets, since it was beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, and it was also the fastest decline in monthly prices since April 2020 at the height of the pandemic. Furthermore, it took the year-on-year change down to +6.2% (vs. +6.8% expected), which is its weakest level since March 2021.

Alongside the PPI reading, we also had the latest retail sales data for December, which also surprised on the downside at -1.1% (vs. -0.9% expected), along with a four-tenths downward revision to November’s reading, which now shows a -1.0% contraction as well. For industrial production it was much the same story again, with a worse-than-expected contraction at -0.7% (vs. -0.1% expected), and a downward revision to the previous month.

With that downside surprise on the PPI data and the weaker-than-expected numbers elsewhere, investors moved to price in a less aggressive pace of rate hikes over the months ahead. In particular, the terminal rate priced in for June came down by -5.4bps to 4.86%, its lowest level so far this year, with a further decline of -1.7bps overnight to 4.84%. And looking further out, the rate priced in by end-2023 came down by -9.5bps to 4.35%, which again is the lowest of the year so far, with a further -3.7bps decline overnight to 4.31%.

When it came to Fed speakers, we heard from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard yesterday, who continued with his normally hawkish tone. He said that the policy rate was not yet in what he would call restrictive territory and that “policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023.” He also noted that he expected fed funds to finish the year between 5.25% and 5.50%, and was in open to getting there quicker by increasing rates by 50bps at the next meeting. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged that pricing pressures were moving the right way across different metrics but also that rates need to get higher. Finally, the latest Fed Beige Book pointed to expectations of easing inflation, saying that “contacts across districts said they expected future price growth to moderate further in the year ahead.” The report also held key information with regards to employment saying “firms hesitated to lay off employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and planned to reduce headcount through attrition if needed.” This tracks with the recent economic data showing declining retail sales and robust payrolls.

The prospect of a less aggressive Fed led to a further rally in Treasuries, and as mentioned at the top 10yr yields came down -17.8bps to 3.37%. The moves were driven by lower real yields, with the 10yr real yield down by -13.6bps on the day to 1.24%. And the effects were evident elsewhere, with the dollar index (-0.03%) spending much of yesterday at its lowest level since May before recovering to finish with only a modest decline. Likewise, the Bloomberg index of US financial conditions eased to its most accommodative level since last February during European trading yesterday, before falling back as the risk-off sentiment took hold.

Although Treasuries were rallying, the risk-off tone meant that US equities were much less resilient, with the S&P falling back -1.56% as recession concerns mounted. That was echoed across the other major indices, with the NASDAQ (-1.24%) and the Dow Jones (-1.81%) falling back as well. However in Europe, the recent equity outperformance relative to the US continued, with the STOXX 600 (+0.23%) advancing for a 6th consecutive session. Looking forward, US futures are pointing to further losses ahead, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.06%) edging lower.

Staying on Europe, there was a significant bond rally there too, with yields on 10yr bunds (-7.2bps), OATs (-9.3bps) and BTPs (-13.4bps) all moving lower after the US data releases. In fact at the intraday lows, the German 10yr bund yield was back beneath 2%, and we also saw the spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds close at its tightest level since April, at just 174bps. In the meantime, we heard from some ECB speakers, with France’s Villeroy saying that President Lagarde’s guidance about hiking by 50bps for “a period of time” were still valid, even as he also said that “it’s much too early to speculate about what we will do in March”. That follows a Bloomberg article the previous day suggesting that the ECB might downshift their hikes to 25bps at the March meeting, following another 50bp move in February. Elsewhere, Finland’s Rehn said that “significant interest rate hikes in the near-term monetary policy meetings are justified in order to keep inflation expectations under control”.

One underperformer relative to the rest of Europe were UK gilts, where the 10yr yield only came down -1.0bps on the day. That followed the release of the UK CPI data for December, which showed an expected decline in CPI to +10.5%, but core inflation remained at +6.3%, which was a tenth stronger than expected. As a result, investors put increasing weight on the prospects of another 50bp hike at the February meeting, with overnight index swaps pricing a 46.1bps hike by the close yesterday, which is the highest so far in 2023.

This morning in Asia, equity markets have put in a mixed performance. In Japan the Nikkei (-1.46%) has slumped amidst a fresh appreciation in the Yen this morning, but other indices including the KOSPI (+0.29%), the CSI 300 (+0.17%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) have all advanced.

Meanwhile in energy markets, oil prices have moved lower overnight following their moves higher over recent days, with Brent crude (-1.24%) at $83.93/bbl and WTI (-1.48%) at $78.30/bbl as weak US economic data raised concerns over the demand outlook.

Finally in New Zealand, Prime Minister Ardern announced that she would step down by next month, having been in office since 2017. The New Zealand Labour Party will hold an election for a new leader, which comes ahead of a general election later in the year.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot, Fed Vice Chair Brainard, and the Fed’s Collins and Williams. In addition, the ECB will be publishing the account of their December meeting. Otherwise, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, December’s housing starts and building permits, along with the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for January. Finally, earnings releases include Procter & Gamble and Netflix.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities and bonds pressured following ECB’s Knot pushing back on earlier reports – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, as ECB officials continue to pushback on dovish reports.
  • US futures are lower across the board, as the ES continues to move below 4k ahead of more earnings and key Fed speak, ES -0.5%.
  • DXY was seemingly capped on approach to 102.50 amid a general downturn in risk with the USD facing pressure from the Euro and Yen while antipodeans lag.
  • ECB’s Knot says planning to hike by 50bp multiple times; Norges Bank and CBRT both left rates unchanged, as expected.
  • EGBs have retreated from initial peaks given the above, dragging USTs and Gilts down with them.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, IJC, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Brainard & Collins, ECB’s  Schnabel & Knot, Earnings from Procter & Gamble, KeyCorp, Fifth Third & Netflix.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, as ECB officials continue to pushback on dovish reports.
  • Sectors are all in the red with Basic Resources and Energy names lagging given underlying commodity pricing.
  • US futures are lower across the board, as the ES continues to move below 4k ahead of more earnings and key Fed speak, ES -0.5%.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY was seemingly capped on approach to 102.50 amid a general downturn in risk with the USD facing pressure from the Euro and Yen.
  • With the JPY continuing its post-BoJ reversal and EUR/USD comfortably reclaiming 1.08+ in wake of ECB’s Knot pushing back on earlier dovish reports.
  • Antipodeans are the stand-out laggards with Australian labour data and the unexpected resignations of New Zealand’s PM contributing; AUD/USD sub-0.69 and NZD/USD sub-0.64.
  • NOK experienced modest gyrations around 10.75 against the EUR post-Norges Bank, with this perhaps just an unwinding of the minority hawkish positioning going into the announcement.
  • Norges Bank holds its Key Policy Rate at 2.75% (vs. split expectation for 25bps/Unch. but bias towards unchanged), decision was unanimous; “The policy rate will most likely be raised in March”. Subsequently, Governor Bache says they have not yet made new forecasts for rate developments beyond March.
  • CBRT holds its Weekly Repo Rate steady at 9.00% as expected.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7674 vs exp. 6.7680 (prev. 6.7602).
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs and particularly Bunds have retreated from initial peaks and have dragged Gilts and USTs lower in tandem.
  • Downside that was initially sparked by ECB’s Knot sticking to his hawkish lines and thereafter irrespective of well covered French and Spanish issuance.
  • USTs themselves have been dragged down to unchanged levels, with attention turning to a busy docket of Fed speak, with Brainard perhaps the highlight.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent March’23 futures are softer intraday with prices meandering around USD 0.50/bbl above APAC lows of USD 78.10/bbl and USD 83.76/bbl respectively.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude 7.6mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline 2.8mln (exp. 2.5mln), Distillate -1.8mln (exp. 0.1mln), Cushing 3.7mln.
  • Qatar Energy set March-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 1.37/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the lowest in 21 months, according to Reuters citing traders.
  • IEA’s head Birol says he does not see tightness in (the oil) market currently but have to be aware of uncertainties, via Reuters; may see tighter markets in 2023, more than some others may think. If China’s economy rebounds this year as expected, will see stronger demand that will pressure the market. Russian oil exports seem more resilient than initially thought but will fall further in Q1 and beyond.
  • LME CEO says there is untapped demand for trading in Asian hours, via CNBC.
  • Spot gold mirrors Dollar action but the yellow metal found some overnight support around the USD 1,900/oz mark but remains off yesterday’s 1,925.79/oz peak.
  • Citi released some metal forecasts this morning and upgraded its 0-3month copper and aluminium forecasts to USD 10k/T (prev. 7.8k/T) and USD 2.7k/T (prev. 2.35k/T) respectively.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • ECB’S Knot says market developments of late are not entirely welcome, via CNBC; ECB won’t stop after a single 50bp hike, planning to hike by 50bp multiple times. No signs of underlying inflation pressures abating; core inflation shows no signs of abatingCurrently only focused on the risk of doing too-little. Will be in “tightening mode” until at least mid-year.
  • ECB President Lagarde says economic news has become much more positive; may only see a small contraction in GDP in the Eurozone; 2023 will be better than feared. Will stay the course with rate hikes.
  • Irish PM Varadkar has said the 25th Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement was not an absolute deadline in law for the EU and UK to secure agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, according to RTE’s Connelly.

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK RICS Housing Survey (Dec) -42 vs. Exp. -30 (Prev. -25, Rev. -26)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed’s Harker (voter) repeated that Fed needs to get the Fed Funds Rate north of 5% and that policy is nearing the end game, while he noted it is good to approach the terminal rate slowly and reiterated support for 25bp hikes ahead.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that the US announced an additional USD 125mln in funding to support Ukraine’s energy and electric grid against Russian attacks designed to leave millions without power during the winter months.
  • US is finalising a large package of military aid to Ukraine which officials said will likely total as much as USD 2.6bln, according to AP.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is little changed overall with numerous speakers ahead including ECB’s Knot explicitly on crypto, currently holding within USD 20.6k-20.8k parameters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mixed with most major indices rangebound following the negative lead from Wall St, where risk sentiment deteriorated after a slew of disappointing US data and hawkish Fed rhetoric.
  • ASX 200 climbed above 7,400 with the index led by miners after an increase in BHP’s quarterly iron ore output although gains were capped by disappointing jobs data and losses in the energy sector amid a pullback in oil prices and with Santos pressured due to a reduction in its FY output guidance.
  • Nikkei 225 underperformed after markets mostly faded the BoJ-rally with many viewing the central bank’s decision to refrain from policy adjustments as a fleeting effort to delay the inevitable.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses with price action cautious as the upside in the property sector counterbalanced the notable weakness in the large tech names.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese President Xi expressed concern about the spread of COVID-19 to rural areas as China heads towards the Lunar New Year, according to FT.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said the government will scrap the quarantine order for people infected with COVID-19 from January 30th, according to Reuters.
  • New Zealand PM Ardern announced to step down on February 7th and the Labour party is to vote on a new leader on January 22nd which Deputy PM Robertson will not stand in. Furthermore, PM Arden said she no longer has enough in the tank to do the job justice and that the general election will be held on October 14th.
  • China is preparing for a new trading link with Hong Kong for foreigners to hedge bonds; PBoC shared draft riles for the Swap Connect to Chinese financial institutions last month, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Trade Balance Total (JPY)(Dec) -1448.5B vs. Exp. -1652.8B (Prev. -2029.0B)
  • Japanese Exports YY (Dec) 11.5% vs. Exp. 10.1% (Prev. 20.0%); Imports YY (Dec) 20.6% vs. Exp. 22.4% (Prev. 30.3%)
  • Australian Employment (Dec) -14.6k vs. Exp. 22.5k (Prev. 64.0k, Rev. 58.3k); Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
  • Australian Participation Rate (Dec) 66.6% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)

 

1.c THURSDAY/  WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.87 PTS OR 0.49%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 27.02 PTS OR 0.12%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 385.89 PTS OR 1,44%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.7858//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7881//    /Oil DOWN TO 78.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.42   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED         ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

end

2B JAPAN

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/ECONOMY

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

GERMANY/RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE

How foolish can they be? Germany ups the pressure on Biden to provide tanks for Ukraine!

(zerohedge)

Germany Says US Must Lead Way On Tanks For Ukraine, As GOP Also Piles On Pressure

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 05:15 PM

Germany just upped the pressure on the Biden administration regarding growing calls to send Ukraine M1 Abrams tanks, which the White House has thus far resisted, fearing further escalation with Russia.

It comes as Germany just appointed a new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, after scandal-plagued Christine Lambrecht resigned the day prior, after also long being accused of representing weakness on arming Ukraine. The Scholz government said it will be up for the new defense minister to mull the question of tanks for Ukraine, as Kiev’s pleas grow louder.

“Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday,” according to fresh Wall Street Journal reporting.Western-made tanks like the Leopard have been seen as a “game-changer” should Ukrainian forces get them, Getty Images.

Multiple NATO countries have now expressed their willingness to send the highly sophisticated German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, namely, Poland, Denmark and Finland – but Berlin has to sign off on it first.

This month has witnessed for the first time in the 11-month long war growing political momentum to ship Western-made heavy tanks to the Ukrainian battlefield, instead of the infantry carriers and Soviet tanks thus far supplied. 

The German reluctance in approval comes after the opening months of the Russian invasion triggered an about-face in German foreign policy, as Berlin has now abandoned its historic neutrality. “One can’t differentiate between direct exports (of German-made tanks) and exports by third countries,” a senior German official was quoted in the WSJ report as explaining of Berlin’s stance.

But it seems Germany is now clearly signaling that Washington must lead the way in opening the flood gates of a heavy weapons system as significant as tanks onto the Ukraine battlefield. 

The timing of the WSJ’s German tank story is interesting, also given the same day top Republican committee chairs in Congress are ramping up the pressure on Biden, demanding that the US approve what are widely seen as ‘weapons needed to win’ against Russia.Boris Pistorius, Germany’s new defense minister, DPA via AP

“Leopard 2 tanks, ATACMS, and other long-range precision munitions should be approved without delay,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers said in a statement reported by Bloomberg. The pair of lawmakers at the same time criticized the “current indecision and self-deterrence” which they say will only prolong the conflict.

But Germany’s Scholz has consistently expressed a desire to avoid potential direct military escalation with Russia at all costs. Approving tanks would likely plunge Germany deeper in right alongside the US as things continue sliding toward direct confrontation.

Meanwhile, sabotage from Scholz?…

But here’s what Scholz told his peers at Davos today…

“…will support Ukraine for as long as necessary…”

END

FRANCE

France grinds to a halt over nationwide pension strikes.  France is upset that they are raising the retirement age by two years to 64!

(zerohedge)

France Grinds To Halt Over Nationwide Pension Strikes

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 07:47 AM

French refinery workers, teachers, train drivers, and other critical industry employees walked off their jobs in a nationwide day of strikes against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to increase the retirement age by two years to 64. AP News reported the strikes are “halting high-speed trains, disrupting electricity supplies,” and bringing major transportation networks to a screeching halt. 

Protests are underway in major French metro areas, including Paris, Marseille, Toulouse, Nantes, and Nice. Transportation networks have ground to a halt. Many workers who hit the street in protest of Macron’s planned increase to the minimum retirement are in sectors including railways, schools, hospitals, and air-traffic controllers. 

France’s eight largest labor unions coordinated today’s massive labor action. The CGT union and the head of the Communist party are expected to have at least a million workers protest today. 

“This will be a first day,” CGT head Philippe Martinez told local media France 2. He added: “When we say this, it means there will be others.”

Reuters noted before the strike that the CGT union “threatened to cut off electricity supplies to lawmakers and billionaires.” 

The challenge for Macron is to overhaul the pension system to keep it solvent. His administration has argued that the aging population and growing life expectancy have burdened the pension systems. However, the unions are upset with Macron’s plan amid increasing outrage over a cost-of-living crisis. 

Labour Ministry estimates show increasing the retirement age by two years would bring an additional 17.7 billion euros in annual pension contributions — allowing the pension fund to survive until 2027.

AP reported many forms of transportation are either delayed or halted today. 

A majority of trains around France are canceled, including some international connections, according to the SNCF rail authority. About 20% of flights out of Paris’ Orly Airport are canceled and airlines are warning of delays.

Bloomberg pointed out energy shipments might be affected. 

Fuel deliveries from French refineries, including those owned by TotalEnergies SE and Exxon Mobil Corp., will also be affected by the 24-hour strike. And as many as 70% of nursery and primary school teachers will stay home, closing many schools, according to unions in the education sector.

END

EUROPE/WEATHER

looks like Europe has “weathered” the storm: natural gas inventories will end up half full by the conclusion of winter

(zerohedge)

Europe Forecast To End Winter With NatGas Inventories Half Full

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Europe’s underground natural gas storage is forecasted to end the winter season above the 50% mark and might have enough supplies to replenish inventory back to adequate levels before the start of next winter. 

Europe is on track to end the winter with its gas inventories over 50% full and to have more than enough gas to completely replenish its storage by the start of next winter, according to the latest forecasts from BloombergNEF. This comes as the recent crash in prices is not expected to be enough to rekindle demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia, and demand destruction in Europe, particularly in the power sector, continues. — BloombergNEF. 

Mild weather has helped the energy-stricken continent overcome a sharp drawdown in supplies.

The European Union has severed energy trading with Russia. It’s no longer receiving coal and crude oil, and NatGas has been significantly reduced. The Bloc has rejiggered energy supply chains to receive shipments of liquefied natural gas from the US, Qatar, and other major producers. 

“The more gas we have in storage facilities at the beginning of the year, the less stress and cost we will face in filling them again for next winter,” said Klaus Mueller, head of Germany’s network regulator. 

Morgan Stanley recently noted that European NatGas consumption would be 16% below five-year average levels throughout the year. 

Benchmark NatGas prices have tumbled a staggering 80% since last August. 

However, colder weather swept across parts of the continent this week, boosting heating demand. 

Europe might be in a better position than once feared, but it is not yet out of the woods. 

end

ECB

Europe can ill afford rising yields

(Reuters)

Euro zone government bond yields rise after Lagarde comments

Jan 19 (Reuters) – Euro zone government bond yields rose on Thursday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde poured cold water on speculation about a slowdown in the monetary tightening path.

The central bank will continue raising interest rates and leave them in restrictive territory for as long as it takes to bring down inflation to its 2% target, Lagarde said.

According to Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, markets may be underestimating planned rate hikes and investors should take more seriously European Central Bank (ECB) guidance to raise rates in multiples of 50 basis points (bps).

The ECB on Dec. 15 pledged further rate hikes, triggering a bond sell-off which drove Germany’s 10-year yield from around 2% to its highest since July 2011 at 2.569%.

The account of the meeting, published on Thursday, showed policymakers struggled to compromise on a 50 bp interest rate hike in December, but concluded strong hints about future increases were as good as a bigger rise immediately.

The German 10-year yield dropped earlier in January as a cooling of inflation on both sides of the Atlantic triggered speculation about slower monetary tightening.

It was up 5 bps at 2.057% by 1550 GMT on Thursday.

Bond yields are rising “following generally hawkish remarks by ECB officials, including President Lagarde,” said Francesco Maria Di Bella, fixed-income strategist at UniCredit.

“We think that some investors are also taking profit from the recent EGB (euro zone government bonds) rally,” he added.

Weak U.S. economic data on Wednesday nudged investors toward safe assets supporting a fall in bond yields.

Italy’s 10-year yield rose 4 bps to 3.779% on Thursday, after hitting its lowest since Dec. 13 at 3.691% on Wednesday.

The spread between German and Italian 10-year government bond yields, a gauge of investor confidence in the more highly indebted countries of the euro zone, was at 171 bps after briefly narrowing to its tightest level since April 2022 of 163.80 bps.

Some investors argued a turning point for peripheral euro zone government bonds was expected, as more attractive yields and an ECB backstop would rein in the risk premium for Southern European debt.

The German yield curve remained at its deepest inversion since 1992 with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields at around -46 bps.

The gap between U.S. and German yields is also in focus even if it has been range-bound since tightening to around 135 bps the days after the ECB’s hawkish policy meeting in December.

“The case for UST (U.S. Treasuries) outperformance versus Bunds remains compelling with the Federal Reserve talking open-minded about slower rate hikes and the latest U.S. data providing cracks in the soft landing expectations,” said Michael Leister, head of interest rates strategy at Commerzbank.

Bond prices move inversely with yields.

The yield spread between U.S. and German 10-year bonds was last at around 134 bps, having earlier tightened to 129 bps.

END

EUROPE/GLOBALISTS(W.E.F.)/RUSSIA/USA

What the globalists at the WEF talked about

(zerohedge)

Escobar: ‘Fragmented World’ Sleepwalks Into World War III

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 12:15 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The self-appointed Davos “elites” are afraid. So afraid. At this week’s World Economic Forum meetings, mastermind Klaus Schwab – displaying his trademark Bond villain act – carped over and over again about a categorical imperative: we need “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”.

While his diagnosis of “the most critical fragmentation” the world is now mired in is predictably somber, Herr Schwab maintains that “the spirit of Davos is positive” and in the end we may all live happily in a “green sustainable economy.”

What Davos has been good at this week is showering public opinion with new mantras. There’s “The New System” which, considering the abject failure of the much ballyhooed Great Reset, now looks like a matter of hastily updating the current – rattled – operating system.

Davos needs new hardware, new programming skills, even a new virus. Yet for the moment all that’s available is a “polycrisis”: or, in Davos speak, a “cluster of related global risks with compounding effects.”

In plain English: a perfect storm.

Insufferable bores from that Divide and Rule island in northern Europe have just found out that “geopolitics”, alas, never really entered the tawdry “end of history” tunnel: much to their amazement it’s now centered – again – across the Heartland, as it’s been for most of recorded history.

They complain about “threatening” geopolitics, which is code for Russia-China, with Iran attached.

But the icing on the Alpine cake is arrogance/stupidity actually giving away the game: the City of London and its vassals are  livid because the “world Davos made” is fast collapsing.

Davos did not “make” any world apart from its own simulacrum.

Davos never got anything right, because these “elites” were always busy eulogizing the Empire of Chaos and its lethal “adventures” across the Global South.

Davos not only failed to foresee all recent, major economic crises but most of all the current “perfect storm”, linked to the neoliberalism-spawned deindustrialization of the Collective West.

And, of course, Davos is clueless about the real Reset taking place towards multipolarity.

Self-described opinion leaders are busy “re-discovering” that Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain was set in Davos – “against the backdrop of a deadly disease and an impeding world war” – nearly a century ago.

Well, nowadays the “disease” – fully bioweaponized – is not exactly deadly per se. And the “impending World War” is in fact being actively encouraged by a cabal of US Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons: an unelected, unaccountable, bipartisan Deep State not even subject to ideology. Centennary war criminal Henry Kissinger still does not get it.

A Davos panel on de-globalization was rife on non-sequiturs, but at least a dose of reality was provided by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

As for China’s vice-premier Liu He, with his vast knowledge of finance, science and technology, at least he was very helpful to lay down Beijing’s five top guidelines for the foreseeable future – beyond the customary imperial Sinophobia.

China will focus on expanding domestic demand; keeping industrial and supply chains “smooth”; go for the “healthy development of the private sector”; deepen state enterprise reform; and aim for “attractive foreign investment.”

Russian resistance, American precipice

Emmanuel Todd was not at Davos. But it was the French anthropologist, historian, demographer and geopolitical analyst who ended up ruffling all the appropriate feathers across the collective West these past few days with a fascinating anthropological object: a reality-based interview.

Todd spoke to Le Figaro – the newspaper of choice of the French establishment and haute bourgeoisie. The interview was published last Friday on page 22, sandwiched between proverbial Russophobic screeds and with an extremely brief mention on the bottom of the front page. So people really had to work hard to find it.

Todd joked that he has the – absurd – reputation of a “rebel destroy” in France, while in Japan he’s respected, featured in mainstream media, and his books are published with great success, including the latest (over 100,000 copies sold): “The Third World War Has Already Started”.

Significantly, this Japanese best seller does not exist in French, considering the whole Paris-based publishing industry toes the EU/NATO line on Ukraine.

The fact that Todd gets several things right is a minor miracle in the current, abysmally myopic European intellectual landscape (there are other analysts especially in Italy and Germany, but they carry much less weight than Todd).

So here’s Todd’s concise Greatest Hits.

  • A new World War is on: By “switching from a limited territorial war to a global economic clash, between the collective West on one side and Russia linked to China on the other side, this became a World War”.
  • The Kremlin, says Todd, made a mistake, calculating that a decomposed Ukraine society would collapse right away. Of course he does not get into detail on how Ukraine had been weaponized to the hilt by the NATO military alliance.
  • Todd is spot on when he stresses how Germany and France had become minor partners at NATO and were not aware of what was being plotted in Ukraine militarily: “They did not know that the Americans, British and Poles could allow Ukraine to fight an extended  war. NATO’s fundamental axis now is Washington-London-Warsaw-Kiev.”
  • Todd’s major give away is a killer: “The resistance of Russia’s economy is leading the imperial American system to the precipice. Nobody had foreseen that the Russian economy would hold facing NATO’s ‘economic power’”.
  • Consequently, “monetary and financial American controls over the world may collapse, and with them the possibility for the US of financing for nothing their enormous trade deficit”.
  • And that’s why “we are in an endless war, in a clash where the conclusion is the collapse of one or the other.”
  • On China, Todd might sound like a more pugnacious version of Liu He at Davos: “That’s the fundamental dilemma of the American economy: it cannot face Chinese competition without importing qualified Chinese work force.”
  • As for the Russian economy, “it does accept market rules, but with an important role for the state, and it keeps the flexibility of forming engineers that allow adaptations, industrial and military.”
  • And that bring us, once again, to globalization, in a manner that Davos roundtables were incapable of understanding: “We have delocalized so much of our industrial activity that we don’t know whether our war production may be sustained”.
  • On a more erudite interpretation of that “clash of civilizations” fallacy, Todd goes for soft power and comes up with a startling conclusion: “On 75 percent of the planet, the organization of parenthood  was patrilineal, and that’s why we may identify a strong understanding of the Russian position. For the collective non-West, Russia affirms a reassuring moral conservatism.”
  • So what Moscow has been able to pull off is to “reposition itself as the archetype of a big power, not only “anti-colonialist” but also patrilineal and conservative in terms of traditional mores.”

Based on all of the above, Todd smashes the myth sold by EU/NATO “elites” – Davos included – that Russia is “isolated”, stressing how votes in the UN and the overall sentiment across the Global South characterizes the war, “described by mainstream media as a conflict over political values, in fact, on a deeper level, as a conflict of anthropological values.”

Between light and darkness

Could it be that Russia – alongside the real Quad, as I defined them (with China, India and Iran) – are prevailing in the anthropological stakes?

The real Quad has all it takes to blossom into a new cross-cultural focus of hope in a “fragmented world”.

Mix Confucian China (non-dualistic, no transcendental deity, but with the Tao flowing through everything) with Russia (Orthodox Christian, reverencing the divine Sophia); polytheistic India (wheel of rebirth, law of karma); and Shi’ite Iran (Islam preceded by Zoroastrianism, the eternal cosmic battle between Light and Darkness).

This unity in diversity is certainly more appealing, and uplifting, than the Forever War axis.

Will the world learn from it? Or, to quote Hegel – “what we learn from history is that nobody learns from history” – are we hopelessly doomed?

END

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

(Mike Whitney/Robert H)

Robert H to us:

The astute person would run from this and not embrace it. American hegemony and dominance will die in the Ukraine if American or NATO troops enter the Ukraine. Are we ready for this? Clearly brain dead Neocons sitting in comfortable chairs have never considered Mr. Zircon come calling.
Ukraine is finished and the sooner this is over the sooner the world may return to rebuilding itself. Otherwise all of Europe will fall into abyss of grief not seen since WWII.


And you wonder why real estate in Europe is collapsing. In value?

Ukraine: Is the Hammer About to Fall?

MIKE WHITNEY • JANUARY 17, 2023

 

“Here’s something you must understand. We were not given any opportunity to act differently.” Vladimir Putin

The plan to engage Russia militarily is a tacit admission that the United States can no longer maintain its global dominance through economic or political means alone. After exhaustive analysis and debate, western elites have settled on a course of action aimed at dividing the world into warring blocs in order to prosecute a war on Russia and China. The ultimate strategic objective of the current policy, is to tighten the grip of western elites on the levers of global power and to prevent the dissolution of the “rules-based international order.” But after 11 months of nonstop warfare in Ukraine, the US-backed western coalition finds itself in a worse position than when it began. Aside from the fact that the economic sanctions have severely impacted Washington’s closest European allies, the West’s control of Ukraine has plunged the economy into a protracted slump, destroyed much of the country’s critical infrastructure and annihilated a sizable portion of the Ukrainian Army. More importantly, Ukrainian forces are now suffering unsustainable casualties on the battlefield which is laying the groundwork for the inevitable splintering of the state. Whatever the outcome of the conflict may be, one thing is certain: Ukraine will no longer exist as a viable, independent, contiguous state.

One of the biggest surprises of the current war, is simply the lack of preparedness on part of the US. One would assume that if the foreign policy mandarins decided to “lock horns” with the world’s biggest nuclear superpower, they would have done the necessary planning and preparation to ensure success. Clearly, that hasn’t happened. US policymakers seem surprised by the fact that the economic sanctions backfired and actually strengthened Russia’s economic situation. They also failed to anticipate that the vast majority of countries would not only ignore the sanctions but proactively explore options for “ditching the dollar” in their business transactions and in the sale of critical resources.

We see the same incompetence in the provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine. How do we explain the fact that the NATO nations have been frantically scraping the bottom of the barrel to find weapons for Ukraine? Did our leaders really start a war with Russia not knowing whether they had sufficient supplies of weapons and ammo to fight the enemy? That appears to be the case.

And were our leaders so sure that the conflict would be a low-intensity insurgency that they never planned for a full-blown, combined-arms, ground war? Once again, this appears to be true.

These aren’t trivial mistakes. The level of incompetence in the planning of this war is beyond anything we’ve ever seen before. It appears that all the preparation was focused on provoking a Russian invasion, not on the developments that would happen soon afterwards. What’s clear, is that the Pentagon never “gamed out” the actual war itself or the conflict as it is presently unfolding. Otherwise, how does one explain these glaring errors in judgement:

  1. They never thought the sanctions would backfire
  2. They never thought they’d run out of weapons and ammo
  3. They never thought Russia’s oil receipts would skyrocket
  4. They never thought that the majority of countries would maintain normal relations with Russia
  5. They never figured they’d actually need a coherent military strategy for fighting a ground war in eastern Europe.

Is there anything they got right?

Not that we can see.

The “Rules-Based Order” in one photo: From Ben Norton Twitter

The “Rules-Based Order” in one photo: From Ben Norton Twitter

Take a look at this excerpt from an interview with ex-Brigade General Erich Vad who served as Angela Merkel’s policy advisor from 2006 to 2013:

Question– You too have been attacked for calling for negotiations.

Brigade General Erich Vad–Yes, as did the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, who, like me, warned against overestimating the Ukrainians’ regionally limited offensives in the summer months. Military experts – who know what’s going on among the secret services, what it’s like on the ground and what war really means – are largely excluded from the discourse. They don’t fit in with media opinion-forming. We are largely experiencing a media synchronization that I have never experienced in the Federal Republic…

Military operations must always be coupled with attempts to bring about political solutions. The one-dimensionality of current foreign policy is hard to bear. She is very heavily focused on weapons. The main task of foreign policy is and remains diplomacy, reconciliation of interests, understanding and conflict management. I miss that here. I’m glad that we finally have a foreign minister in Germany, but it’s not enough to just use war rhetoric and walk around in Kyiv or Donbass with a helmet and flak jacket. This is too little….

Brigade General Erich Vad–Then the question arises again as to what should happen with the deliveries of the tanks at all. To take over the Crimea or the Donbass, the martens and leopards are not enough. In eastern Ukraine, in the Bakhmut area, the Russians are clearly advancing. They will probably have completely conquered the Donbass before long. One only has to consider the numerical superiority of the Russians over Ukraine. Russia can mobilize up to two million reservists. The West can send 100 martens and 100 leopards there, they don’t change anything in the overall military situation. And the all-important question is how to end such a conflict with a warlike nuclear power – mind you, the most powerful nuclear power in the world! – wants to survive without going into a third world war….

You can continue to wear down the Russians, which means hundreds of thousands of deaths, but on both sides. And it means further destruction of Ukraine. What is left of this country? It will be leveled to the ground. Ultimately, that is no longer an option for Ukraine either. The key to solving the conflict does not lie in Kyiv, nor does it lie in Berlin, Brussels or Paris, it lies in Washington and Moscow…. A broader front for peace must be built in Washington…. Otherwise we wake up one morning and we’re in the middle of World War III.” (“Erich Vad: “What are the War Aims”, Emma)

Let’s summarize:

  1. The media is “overestimating the (effect of) Ukrainians’ regionally limited offensives”. In short, the Ukrainians are losing the war.
  2. The Russians are winning the war. (“The Russians are clearly advancing. They will probably have completely conquered the Donbass before long.”)
  3. Weapons alone will not change the outcome of the war. (“the martens and leopards are not enough.”)
  4. There is no evidence that the west has clearly defined strategic objectives. (“Do you want to achieve a willingness to negotiate with the deliveries of the tanks? Do you want to reconquer Donbas or Crimea? Or do you want to defeat Russia completely? There is no realistic end state definition. And without an overall political and strategic concept, arms deliveries are pure militarism…Military operations must always be coupled with attempts to bring about political solutions.”)

This is not just an indictment of the way the war is being conducted, but of the strategic objectives which remain murky and poorly-defined. NATO is being led around by the nose by Washington, but Washington has no idea what it wants to achieve. “Weakening Russia” is not a coherent military strategy. It is, in fact, an aspirational phantasm nurtured by hawkish neocons playing armchair generals. But that is why we are in the predicament we are today, because the policy is in the hands of deranged fantasists. Does anyone seriously believe that the Ukrainian army will recover the territories in east Ukraine that have been annexed by Russia?

No, no serious person believes that. And, yet, the illusion that the “plucky Ukrainians are winning” persists, even while the casualties mount, the carnage increases and millions of Ukrainians flee the country. It’s beyond belief.

(Above) At the United Nations—China’s critique of Washington’s “rules-based international order”, which is designed to circumvent international law through violent unilateralism

(Above) At the United Nations—China’s critique of Washington’s “rules-based international order”, which is designed to circumvent international law through violent unilateralism

Remember the Powell Doctrine? “The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States:

  1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?
  2. Do we have a clear attainable objective?
  3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
  4. Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
  5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
  6. Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
  7. Is the action supported by the American people?
  8. Do we have genuine broad international support?

The former Secretary of Defense Colin Powell developed his Doctrine to avoid any future Vietnams. And while the Biden administration has not yet committed US combat troops to Ukraine, we think it’s only a matter of time. After all, the media is already beating the war drums while demonizing all-things Russia. That is traditionally how they prepare the public for war. (“Russophobia … is all about dehumanizing one’s opponents to make killing more acceptable (and destroying) all the mental restraints that keep men from barbarism.” Gilbert Doctorow)

Meanwhile, the US continues to pump Ukraine full of weapons while the Pentagon has begun training Ukrainian servicemen in Germany and Oklahoma. It looks like the decision has already been made to embroil the US in another conflict for which there is no vital national security interest and no clear path to victory. In other words, the Powell Doctrine has been shrugged off and replaced with another lunatic neocon plan aimed at dragging Russia into a bloody “Afghanistan-type” quagmire that will drain its resources and prevent it from blocking US expansion into Central Asia.

And how is the neocon plan working so far?

Here’s what Colonel Douglas MacGregor said in a recent interview:

“There are now 540,000 Russian troops stationed around the outskirts of Ukraine preparing to launch a major offensive that I think will probably end the war in Ukraine. 540,000 Russian troops, 1,000 rocket artillery systems, 5000 armored fighting vehicles including at least 1,5000 tanks, hundreds and hundreds of tactical ballistic missiles. Ukraine is now going to experience war on a scale we haven’t seen since 1945.”

And if that wasn’t bleak enough, here’s more from a recent video with Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou:

Alex Christoforou–“There is just a general panic that is gripping the Ukrainian military, NATO and the west. … The Russians have been masterful in concealing their fighting forces …so you have 500,000 thousand military (combat troops) waiting in the wings which leaves Ukraine wondering, “What do we do? We’re bogged down in this Bakhmut-Soledar area when these 500,000 Russian troops could be planning to hit us from any direction and we have no idea where the attack is going to come from?

Alexander Mercouris–“You are exactly right. The Russians have completely gained the strategic initiative. They’re keeping everyone guessing, and to increase the sense of panic in Kiev even more, a Russian general Sulukov has just visited the Russian grouping in Belarus which is growing in size all the time… Does that mean the Russians are planning to advance south from Belarus? We don’t actually know…. But there is this enormous buildup taking place on every front on an order of magnitude greater than anything we’ve seen before. Not just hundreds of thousands of troops deployed, but hundreds of tanks…infantry fighting vehicles, ammunition, artillery pieces…and it’s building up on an enormous scale ….and the fighting in Donbass in the last couple of weeks has been the work of two bodies that are not part of the regular Russian army (The Wagner Group and the Donbas Militia) The main force of the Russian army which has been building up in extraordinary numbers, has not yet been committed to the battle to any great extent. So, I think everybody is expecting that some big blow is coming. No one knows for sure where it will happen. I don’t know (but) the Russians have managed again to keep it all extraordinarily secret. … No one knows what they are going to do, but what we can see is these vast numbers of forces gathering around Ukraine where they Ukrainians are obviously panicking (because it looks like something is going to hit on a huge scale (but) I don’t know where it will come from.” (“Russia’s next move, keeps collective west guessing”, Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, You Tube, 15:25 minute)

end

BIDEN GOING DOWN. WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS, THEY TAKE YOU TO WAR – YouTube

Robert Hryniak3:46 PM (1 hour ago)
to

He is spot on …. Today in Moscow the Pantsir-S air defenses are being installed on the roofs of government buildings. This system is a integrated closer range platform which integrates with the S400 and S500 systems which have been placed around Moscow and elsewhere. The combination is one of the most formidable anti- aircraft, anti- missile multilayered defense systems in the world. And yet what has been provided in the West?  Zero! Although today the EU set up its’ 1st stockpile to respond to nuclear emergencies in Finland. Sure, this reserve will include medical countermeasures but using it means many people will have already died. Further, today Russia cancelled all treaties with the Council of Europe. Not a surprise as why they would want pay into this is a mystery. However, it does confirm that Russia is ending its’ relationship with the West. And it is clear that all of Europe is a vassal of America so there is no point in having a relationship with Europe. Real powers talk to one another and not minions. You can bet there will be no gas or oil coming to Europe soon, so higher prices will become a stable of existence for a long time as energy costs stay high. One might question what happens if the Saudis no longer accept the Euro in trade and prefer Yuan instead. OPEC will soon reprice oil, this is a reality and not fiction. And how events play out in conflict in the  Ukraine and beyond will have a distinct bearing and influence.

It is quite clear that Russia expects or anticipates future possible strikes on Moscow over an expanded war that goes beyond the Ukraine or escalates with missile systems being provided. Why i say this is because Ukraine has no inherent ability to hit Moscow unless such systems are provided or launched from other locations. So when shortly Russia launches a real campaign to end the conflict we should anticipate a NATO response that will escalate matters quickly. And while it is clear that the West cannot supply a extended battlefield with ammunition for any length of time, the possibility of direct nukes at Moscow becomes a distinct reality, no matter how crazy it sounds. We can also be certain that in event such a strike occurs or even in error is seen to be the case, there will be a response that will chill. Whether at that point anyone exists to talk to or not will determine just how bad things become. The likes of Macron and Merkel blew creditability with their admission that they lied about the Minsk Accords to buy time to train and arm the Ukrainians. It does not say much about good intentions and Putin has admitted he was conned as was the intention.  March is likely a telltale sign because the conflict in Ukraine should well be on the to a end. And May is likely when we will see how lucky or stupid the world is.

6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Moderna And Regulatory Agencies Caught Leaving Out Bivalent Vaccine Data, Physicians Skeptical Of Timing

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:20 AM

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Moderna and regulatory agencies did not present clinical data on bivalent shots at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) committee meetings in June and September 2022, respectively.A pharmacist holds a vial of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in West Haven, Conn., on Feb. 17, 2021. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Presentations to the FDA and CDC advisory committee excluded data from Moderna’s own clinical study that showed bivalent boosters may be no better at preventing infections than previous booster shots.

The data showed that among people who were never infected, 3.2 percent who took the bivalent booster got infected afterward, while 1.9 percent who took the monovalent booster were later infected.

Advisors to the FDA and CDC expressed concerns of lack of transparency.

Dr. William Schaffner from Vanderbilt University, a nonvoting member of the CDC advisory committee, said that he was disappointed that the data were not presented.

I think in the interests of transparency, those data should have been presented,” Schaffner said, “though they were very limited, and early data.”

FDA advisor and a professor of clinical pediatrics at the University of California San Diego, Dr. Mark Sawyer, said that he understands people’s concern with the data being excluded, but not all information can be presented.

The committee has limited time, so the information presented must be relevant to the big picture.

“Seeing that data would not have changed my opinion about the outcome,” said Sawyer, “and it would certainly have distracted from the discussion.”

The four advisors for the FDA and CDC who were contacted by The Epoch Times agreed that if the data were presented, it may have prolonged the discussion, but would not have changed the voting outcomes.

Both the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting and the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting approved Moderna bivalent boosters.

The excluded data come out of a small Moderna study with 772 participants. The study primarily investigated the safety and immunogenicity of boosters, but also looked into the infection and reactogenicity of the subjects.

Immunogenicity, the focus of the study, is defined as the ability of the vaccine to trigger an immune response. Though the study authors reiterated that the trial does not examine vaccine efficacy, the authors acknowledged that immunogenicity has been used to infer efficacy.

Three days before the FDA VRBPAC meeting on June 28, 2022, Moderna published the study as a preprint, and in September, published the study in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

Both the preprint and peer-reviewed study included data on immunogenicity, safety, reactogenicity, as well as infection.

Moderna’s spokesman Christopher Ridley also told CNN that the company shared the infection data with the FDA and published the study before the FDA panel meeting.

At the VRBPAC meeting, Moderna president Stephen Hoge made several references to the study’s immunogenicity data, which showed that people who took the bivalent shots had a higher antibody level than those who took the monovalent booster, as an argument for the bivalent booster’s superiority.

Hoge also made references to the same study’s data on safety and reactogenicity, but infection rates were excluded.

The FDA’s documents provided to the committee panel on the same day, also referenced the study’s data on immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity, yet the infection data were similarly excluded.

According to CNN, the FDA spokesman explained in an email that the data on infection were not included, as “the FDA received the preprint less than a day prior to the advisory committee meeting,” and “generally the FDA only discusses data at advisory committee meetings that the agency has had the opportunity to substantively review.”

This means that the FDA could review the study’s data on immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity, but had no opportunity to examine infection data.

VRBPAC member and professor of microbiology and immunology from the University of Iowa, Dr. Stanley Perlman, said that with the absence of these data, there is always the concern that the public will lose trust in the health care system.

At the end of the meeting, the VRBPAC committee ruled in favor of using the Omicron variant’s mRNA in boosters to produce the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines in a 19-2 motion.

The CDC’s meeting with members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) on Sep. 1, 2022, presented by Moderna staff Dr. Jacqueline Miller, also excluded data on infection rates in the presentation (pdf).

Hours into the CDC meeting, voting member of the ACIP Dr. Sybil Cineas asked whether there were any data on breakthrough infections between two experimental groups.

Miller said that between the overall cohort of people who received the bivalent vaccine, the infection rate was 2.5 percent, and for the monovalent group, the rate of 2.4 percent.

However, she failed to mention that for people who never had a previous infection, 3.2 percent of those who took the bivalent vaccine became infected, while 1.9 percent of subjects who took the monovalent developed an infection.

The ACIP members approved Moderna bivalent boosters being made available to people aged 18 and over in a 13-1 vote.

Limitations of Study

Dr. Cody Meissner, a VRBPAC member and a professor in the division of infectious diseases and international health from Dartmouth Health Children’s, also pointed out that the infection data came out of a non-randomized and non-blinded study.

This introduces the risk of bias into the study, as those assigned to bivalent or monovalent boosters were not based on random chance, and trial administrators would know what booster participants received.

While this possibly discounts the significance of the data on infection rates, it can also affect the validity of the findings on immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity.

Biochemist and mRNA platform inventor Dr. Robert Malone raised the point that immunogenicity data that only look at antibody levels are not good surrogate measures for vaccine efficacy.

Antibody levels are also not a good measure of immunity, as antibodies will and should wane with time. The long-term immunity they provide is therefore unknown.

It is also unconfirmed if the antibodies produced are neutralizing antibodies that can block the virus and spike proteins, or if they may actually prevent the immune system from killing and controlling the virus, a scenario known as antibody-dependent enhancement.

Increasing Scrutiny of Bivalent Boosters

Bivalent boosters have come under increasing scrutiny for their rapidly declining effectiveness.

A December 2022 preprint study on bivalent vaccines, authored by the Cleveland Clinic, found that the higher the number of previous vaccinations, the greater the risk of contracting COVID-19.

In a letter to the editor (pdf) published in the NEJM, researchers from Columbia University compared antibody serum responses among people who received bivalent boosters, monovalent boosters, and those who were infected.

The authors found that there was no significant difference in neutralizing abilities among these groups when tested against Omicron and other variants.

Dr. Paul Offit, an advisor on the VRBPAC committee who voted against bivalent boosters at the meeting, also published a commentary, saying that young and healthy people shouldn’t get the latest boosters.

“I believe we should stop trying to prevent all symptomatic infections in healthy, young people by boosting them with vaccines containing mRNA from strains that might disappear a few months later,” wrote Offit, also an FDA vaccine panel adviser and professor of pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, in the NEJM on Jan. 11, 2023.

In his article, Offit cited two studies suggesting that bivalent boosters, which target the original COVID-19 strain and two Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA. 5, do not “elicit superior immune responses.”

Why did the strategy for significantly increasing BA.4 and BA.5 neutralizing antibodies using a bivalent vaccine fail?” he asked.

“The most likely explanation is imprinting. The immune systems of people immunized with the bivalent vaccine, all of whom had previously been vaccinated, were primed to respond to the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2. They therefore probably responded to epitopes shared by BA.4 and BA.5 and the ancestral strain, rather than to new epitopes on BA.4 and BA.5.”

Meissner, likewise, expressed that healthy people younger than 65 years of age may not need bivalent boosters.

“We don’t know … how many or how often boosters are necessary. And could there be consequences from giving multiple vaccine doses that we don’t fully understand at this time?”

A peer-reviewed study published on Jan. 12 in Germany also showed that people who received higher numbers of mRNA vaccines had a higher IgG4 antibody response. The authors did not further discuss what these antibody levels may indicate, but studies have associated IgG4 antibodies with immune tolerance, which is when the body reduces its immune response to fight off an infection.

Read more here…

Get a load of this;

special thanks to G for sending this to us;

CAUGHT HIM! Rebel News pummels Pfizer CEO with questions at World Economic Forum — Why can’t Bourla answer these questions? because he knows he is dead wrong !!

https://www.rebelnews.com/caught_him_rebel_news_pummels_pfizer_ceo_with_questions_at_world_economic_forum

G

Inbox

end

GLOBAL ISSUES;//

No question about it: disinformation is the most existential problem facing the planet

(Jonathan Turley)

Sulzberger: Disinformation Is The “Most Existential Problem” Facing The Planet Today

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 09:35 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There has been much coverage over the resurfacing of former CNN host Brian Stelter as the host for a panel at the World Economic Forum on alleged disinformation and “hate speech.” Stelter previously called for censorship under a “harm reduction model” and led a panel at a conference where Democrats discussed how to shape the news.

He was confronted over his own dissemination for false stories targeting Republicans on CNN.

Yet, I was most struck by a statement from New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger who described “disinformation” as the “most existential” problem the world is facing today. Sulzberger insisted that disinformation is the reason why there is a loss of “trust” today. He ignores his own history in eroding that trust in the media through flagrantly biased decisions at the New York Times.

Former  NYT editor Jill Abramson also slammed the participation of Sulzberger and the New York Times at Davos, denouncing it as a “corrupt circle-jerk” between media and business. She said that “the coverage was a sweetener to flatter the CEOs by seeing their names in the NYT.”

The panel was titled, “Clear & Present Danger of Disinformation” included panelists: New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger, Vice-President of the European Commission Vera Jourová, CEO of Internews Jeanne Bourgault, and Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass.

The entire conference was notable in its omission of free speech advocates while inviting long advocates for censorship like Stelter.

Stelter asked his panel, “How does this discussion of disinformation relate to everything else happening today in Davos?”

Sulzberger responded:

“Well, first, thanks for having me is as part of this conversation. As you can imagine, this is something I really care deeply about. So, I think if you look at this question of disinformation, I think it maps basically to every other major challenge that we are grappling with as a society, and particularly the most existential among them. So, disinformation and in the broader set of misinformation, conspiracy, propaganda, clickbait, you know, the broader mix of bad information that’s corrupting information ecosystem, what it attacks is trust.

And once you see, trust decline, what you then see is a society start to fracture, and so you see people fracture along tribal lines and, you know, that immediately undermines pluralism.

And the undermining of pluralism is probably the most dangerous thing that can happen to a democracy. So I really — I think if if you’re spending this week thinking about the health of democracies and democratic erosion, I think it’s really import to work your way back up to where this starts.”

It was a telling statement. Sulzberger suggested that allowing some opposing views undermines “trust.” Indeed, allowing opposing views on Covid or election or global warming does erode trust in the media and the government. Society would be so less “fractured” if information is controlled and consistent.

There is a perfectly Orwellian element to Sulzberger’s words.

Democracy is being threatened because there is too much “disinformation,” “misinformation,” “bad information,” and other harmful views being expressed. 

After all, without such views, there was be less “fracture” and most “trust.”

That was precisely the point of the earlier conference.

What is striking about the comment, however, was the date. This is after many of those censored and blacklisted in the media and social media have been vindicated in the questions over masks or vaccines.

Those who questioned the efficacy of masks were suspended or banned but now have been seemingly vindicated. Among the suspended were the doctors who co-authored of the Great Barrington Declaration, which advocated for a more focused Covid response that targeted the most vulnerable population rather than widespread lockdowns and mandates. Many are now questioning the efficacy and cost of the massive lockdown as well as the real value of masks or the rejection of natural immunities as an alternative to vaccination.  Yet, these experts and others were attacked for such views just a year ago. Some found themselves censored on social media for challenging claims of Dr. Fauci and others.

Likewise, the New York Times was one of those newspapers suppressing stories like the Hunter Biden laptop. It only admitted that the laptop was authentic roughly two years after the election.

Some of us have been raising concerns the emergence of a “shadow state” where corporations carry out censorship the Constitution bars the government from doing.

What’s striking is leading Democrats have been open about precisely this type of corporate manipulation of political speech on social media. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called upon these companies to use enlightened algorithms to protect users from their own bad reading choices.

Even President Joe Biden called for such regulation of speech and discussions by wise editors. Without such censorship and manipulation, Biden asked, “How do people know the truth?

The last year has shown how media censorship resisted scientific debate and buried legitimate stories. Yet, Sulzberger is still unrepentant and views disinformation rather than censorship as the problem…Indeed the world’s most existential problem.

Sulzberger’s position is nothing if not consistent. He was involved in one of the lowest moments in modern media when the newspaper turned not only on a U.S. senator but its own editor to yield to the mob.

Former New York Times editorial page editor James Bennet recently said Sulzberger “set me on fire and threw me in the garbage” in the Cotton column controversy.

The treatment of the Cotton column shocked many of us. It was one of the lowest points in the history of modern American journalismDuring the week of June 6, 2020, the Times forced out Bennet and apologized for publishing Cotton’s column calling for the use of the troops to restore order in Washington after days of rioting around the White House.

While Congress would “call in the troops” six months later to quell the rioting at the Capitol on January 6th, New York Times reporters and columnists denounced the column as historically inaccurate and politically inciteful. The column was in fact historically accurate, even if you disagreed with the underlying proposal (as I did).

Reporters insisted that Cotton was endangering them by suggesting the use of troops and insisted that the newspaper should not feature people who advocate political violence. Writers Taylor Lorenz, Caity Weaver, Sheera Frankel, Jacey Fortin, and others also said that such columns put black reporters in danger and condemned publishing Cotton’s viewpoint.

Critics never explained what was historically false (or outside the range of permissible interpretation) in the column.

In a breathtaking surrender, the newspaper apologized and not only promised an investigation into how such an opposing view could find itself on its pages but promised to reduce the number of editorials in the future:

“We’ve examined the piece and the process leading up to its publication. This review made clear that a rushed editorial process led to the publication of an Op-Ed that did not meet our standards. As a result, we’re planning to examine both short term and long term changes, to include expanding our fact-checking operation and reduction the number of op-eds we publish.”

Bennet reportedly made an apology to the staff.  That however was not enough. He was later compelled to resign for publishing a column that advocates an option used previously in history with rioting.

Bennet recently told the new media outlet Semafor that Sulzberger

“blew the opportunity to make clear that the New York Times doesn’t exist just to tell progressives how progressives should view reality. That was a huge mistake and a missed opportunity for him to show real strength. He still could have fired me…I actually knew what it meant to have a target on your back when you’re reporting for the New York Times.

None of that mattered, and none of it mattered to AG. When push came to shove at the end, he set me on fire and threw me in the garbage and used my reverence for the institution against me,. This is why I was so bewildered for so long after I had what felt like all my colleagues treating me like an incompetent fascist.”

These controversies are the reason why trust in the media is at an all-time low. However, figures like Sulzberger still blame too much free speech as opposed to his own role in biased coverage that has undermined that trust.

That is why, in 2023, it is so glaring to see Sulzberger is being interviewed by Stelter on how disinformation is the greatest existential threat to the planet. Not nuclear proliferation, over-population, war, famine. It is the danger of allowing too much free speech that undermines “trust.”

The key however is that there was no “fracturing” at the World Economic Forum. It was the same figures voicing the same criticism of free speech as the scourge of our time. The problem is the vast global unwashed who fail to put their trust in the right people and sources. Fortunately, all the right people are gathered at Davos to show the way.

end

A MUST VIEW:

Bis Black swan warning

Milan Sabioncello1:31 PM (31 minutes ago)
to me

PAUL  PAUL ALEXANDER

This is big!!

You knew that the FDA wanted court approval to have up to 75 years to publicly disclose information; the FDA wanted to hide the vaccine data for 75 years & the court said hell NO! Produce it now!

I know you would have heard of this ruling but in case, this was critical & showed us malfeasants in the FDA and pharma (Pfizer etc.) that they wanted data to be released only when we were dead & gone

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 18
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Siri is a smart, strong lawyer and has been key to our fight. As seen above, I was humbled and privileged to be among a group of doctors and scientists suing to get the FDA to release the vaccine information.

‘With that promise in mind, after the vaccine’s licensure in August2020, Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency, a group of highly credentialed scientists submitted a FOIA request to the FDA for the data submitted by Pfizer. The scientists explained that, until all the data is produced, a proper review cannot be conducted because missing even a single data set could throw off any analysis.

In response, the FDA produced nothing. Therefore, in September 2021, the scientists, represented by their attorneys at Siri & Glimstad, sued the FDA demanding it produce this data by March 2022.’

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/why-a-judge-ordered-fda-to-release-covid-19-vaccine-data-pronto

end

This is big!

Myocarditis & Lethal Arrhythmias, Adolescent Palpitations & Syncope after COVID-19 Gene Injection Vaccination: Dr. Peter McCullough tries to wake up the population on passing out after the COVID shot

if someone you know has had palpitations or passed out taking the COVID-19 vaccination, be sure to suggest a cardiovascular evaluation; ‘no athletic activity until myocarditis is ruled out’

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 19
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

Adolescent Palpitations and Syncope after COVID-19 Vaccination

By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH Passing out or losing consciousness is called “syncope” and in general has three causes: cardiac, neurological, or other category. The most serious cause is a cardiac arrest which commonly starts with an arrhythmia from from the ventricles called ventricular tachycardia. The rhythm is sufficiently fast where the heart d…

Read more

3 days ago · 183 likes · 13 comments · Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH™

This is based on a case report by Han et al. and McCullough is saying that there is the chance of underlying cardiovascular complications due to the shot and do not take the passing out lightly or transiently.

The case of a 17-year-old woman who presented with chest pain and syncope following the first dose of the messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccine. The patient’s heart function was impaired, and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia was frequent. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging satisfied the criteria for myocarditis. Despite the administration of immunomodulatory drugs, the patient’s heart function was not fully restored, and the concentration of cardiac enzymes remained above the normal range. Persistence of late gadolinium enhancement was observed on short-term follow-up CMR imaging.’

end

This is big!!

Fazlollahi et al.: “Cardiac complications following mRNA COVID-19 vaccines: A systematic review of case reports and case series”; the plot thickens

Sixty-nine studies, including 43 case reports & 26 case series, were included; a review of only case reports & case series is a limitation of this examination yet the findings are potent & informative

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 19
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34921468/

end

Pay attention this this:

Tamandjou et al. (French study): the boosters (second booster or 4th dose) devastating for vaccinee with surge in risk of re-infection; FAR LESS effective than 1st boost, regardless of time points

The gain in protection offered by the second booster was lower than the protection observed with the first booster, at equal time points since last vaccination.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 19
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

French researchers sought to assess the effectiveness of the second booster relative to the first booster and the protection conferred by a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, against symptomatic Omicron BA.2 or BA.4/5.

Key finding:

‘We included symptomatic ≥60 years old individuals tested for SARSCoV-2 in March 21-October 30, 2022. Compared to a 181-210 days old first booster, a second booster restored protection with an effectiveness of 39% [95%CI: 38% – 41%], 7-30 days postvaccination This gain in protection was lower than the one observed with the first booster, at equal time points since vaccination.’

SOURCE:

Key finding below (Figure 1):

‘A statistically significant decrease in the rVE, across time intervals since last vaccination, was observed for both booster 1 and booster 2. However, at similar vaccination time points, the gain in protection measured by the rVE offered by the second booster was lower than the protection offered by the first booster. For instance, rVE of the second booster 91-120 days ago was 8% [5% – 10%] whereas at the same time interval, the rVE of the first booster was 33% [32% – 35%] (Figure 1).’

In figure 2 below, ‘compared to people without previous infection, the more recent was the previous infection, the higher was the protection against symptomatic infection (Figure 2). For instance, the adjusted protection associated with a 61-112 days old previous infection which occurred during the Omicron BA.2 dominant period was 95.6% [95.0%–96.1%] whereas a 321-467 days old previous infection from the Delta-predominant period was associated with protection of 61.7% [57.5%–65.5%].’

‘Myocarditis/myopericarditis and pericarditis were the most common adverse events among the 243 reported cardiac complications, post mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

Males with a median age of 21 years had the highest frequency of myocarditis.

Almost three quarters (74.4%) of cases with myocarditis had received the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) vaccine and 87.7% had received the second dose of the vaccine.

Chest pain (96.1%) and fever (38.2%) were the most common presentations. CK-MB, troponin, and NT-proBNP were elevated in 100%, 99.5% and 78.3% of subjects, respectively.

ST-segment abnormality was the most common electrocardiogram feature.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which is the gold-standard approach for diagnosing myocarditis, was abnormal in all patients diagnosed with myocarditis.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were the most prescribed medication for the management of myocarditis.

Apart from inflammatory conditions, some rare cases of Takotsubo cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries, and isolated tachycardia were also reported following immunization with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

Myocarditis was the most commonly reported adverse cardiac event associated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, which presented as chest pain with a rise in cardiac biomarkers. Further large-scale observational studies are recommended.’

END

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to step down in February: why do you think? Do you think she suspects that soon, she will be on the hot seat as people REALLY understand the crimes she did?

This Prime Minister must be investigated as to all her policy decisions for none of them had any science to support them, all were lies and all failed, every single one; People died due to her!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 19
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/jacinda-ardern-step-down-zealand-010053286.html

“WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced that she will not contest this year’s general elections.

Fighting back tears, Ardern told reporters in Napier that Feb. 7 will be her last day as the country’s leader.

“I am not leaving because it was hard. Had that been the case I probably would have departed two months into the job. I am leaving because with such a privileged role, comes responsibility, the responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead, and also, when you are not. I know what this job takes, and I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It is that simple,” she said.”

end

Yes! ‘Nevada county considers banning Covid, flu vaccines!’ Elko County health board to consider banning COVID, flu vaccines pending “further investigation & results of the Florida Supreme Court case’

This is good, this is the type of news we must be hearing broadly; “You have the right to work with your doctor and choose which vaccines you should and should not get. … Not some rural commissioner

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 19
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

end

Reminder of the massive 17% increase in cardiovascular symptoms in teens following the 2nd Pfizer dose (Chiu et al.); & parents must understand that there is no benefit to these shots in healthy kids

The time is way past to say NO, just say NO to these COVID gene injections that are very harmful and causing deaths

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 18
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

Shock: 17% of teens had cardiac symptoms, MASSIVE surges in Cardiac Symptoms following Second Pfizer COVID Injection dose: Chiu et al.: “Cardiac symptoms are common after second dose Pfizer vaccine”

51 students presented with marked substantial changes in ECGs post the second Pfizer injection. ‘Abnormal ECGs were obtained in 51 (1.0%) of the students’. The alarm with findings such as these is when you extrapolate them to millions of Americans who took the COVID gene injection (mRNA) (and especially young persons, note alarming research is showing fe…

Read more

7 days ago · 101 likes · 33 comments · Dr. Paul Alexander

Chiu SN, Chen YS, Hsu CC, Hua YC, Tseng WC, Lu CW, Lin MT, Chen CA, Wu MH, Chen YT, Chien TH, Tseng CL, Wang JK. Changes of ECG parameters after BNT162b2 vaccine in the senior high school students. Eur J Pediatr. 2023 Jan 5:1–8. doi: 10.1007/s00431-022-04786-0. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 36602621; PMCID: PMC9813456.

/VACCINE IMPACT

ALERT! International Medical Billing Codes Used by the U.S. Government and Private Insurance Now Track Your COVID-19 Vaccination Status

January 18, 2023 3:38 pm

Leo Hohmann has just published a special report about how the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes used by the medical industry for billing purposes under Medicare-Medicaid and the private insurance companies, now include a code for COVID-19 “vaccination status.” This means that if you visit a medical doctor, or are admitted to a hospital, they will ask you whether or not you are up-to-date on your COVID shots, and enter that into your medical records. Hohmann’s report confirms that this code is now being implemented and has started. This is yet another reason why it is imperative to STOP using the medical system. If you don’t use their services, they cannot track you.

Read More…


Non-Profit TRAC Provides 150 Million Records of Money Transfers in U.S. to Law Enforcement

January 18, 2023 4:29 pm

Over 600 US law enforcement have accessed a little-known database tracking every money transfer above $500 for almost a decade, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday citing an investigation by Senator Ron Wyden. The Oregon Democrat is alarmed that Homeland Security used the tool to get six million records while looking for illegal immigrants. The Transaction Record Analysis Center (TRAC) is a nonprofit set up in 2014 by Western Union, as part of a settlement with the state of Arizona. Originally intended as a way to crack down on money laundering by Mexican drug cartels, the tool has since become a way for federal, state and local police to track money transfers without a court order, the Journal reported.  In a letter requesting a federal investigation into the database, Wyden described it as “an all-you-can-eat buffet of Americans’ personal financial data” the government can access “while bypassing the normal protections for Americans’ privacy.”  TRAC reportedly contains more than 150 million records of money transfers from the US to over 20 foreign countries, but also between Americans domestically. US laws require federal agencies to get a subpoena for bank records, and banks to report suspicious activity. Those laws do not apply to money service companies such as Western Union, MoneyGram, Euronet, DolEx and Viamericas – all of which have reportedly sent data to TRAC.

Read More.

VACCINE INJURY

Funeral Homes In Fully-Vaccinated Norway ‘Overwhelmed’ With Corpses – News Punch

Inbox

Robert Hryniak7:41 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

Does no one ask the obvious question about the safety of recent vaccinations. When WEF attendees demand unvaccinated pilots for concern of failure in the cockpit; what does that tell us about vaccine safety? It also is indicative of unspoken concerns that should be asked about the state of all pilots civilian or military as a result. And what about personal safety in flying these days? It was something taken for granted in the recent past.
As it is a vast majority of folks who had shots now tell of getting Covid, so what was the point? The creditability of big Pharma is in the toilet. Society has been let down by companies who gave up social responsibility for the sake of sheer profit over the well being of a populace who believed. And whether by design or ignorance, or incompetence government and health officials are implicated a failure of responsibility and office.
As we move forward this year, the chaos from a general lost of trust in such companies and over prescription of various drugs and a loss of government creditability is sure to cause chaos in all manner  of affairs. As one wanders the world in search of stability, it becomes scarcer to find as upheaval seems to be everywhere with few constants. Even weather is no longer constant, no matter where you travel.

SLAY NEWS//

The latest reports from Slay NewsFAA Quietly Suggests Covid Shots Damaged Pilots’ HeartsA new report from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) quietly suggests that large numbers of pilots have suffered heart damage after being pressured to receive Covid shots.READ MORECanada Launches Major Taxpayer-Funded Effort to Censor the Public OnlineCanada’s government has launched a major taxpayer-funded effort to censor the Canadian people online, arguing that “disinformation” is threatening the nation’s “democracy.”READ MORECNN ‘Medical Analyst’ Admits Covid Deaths and Hospitalizations Have Been Vastly OvercountedCNN’s “medical analyst” Dr. Leana Wen has admitted that the numbers for Covid deaths and hospitalizations have been vastly overcounted by the U.S. government.READ MOREPhiladelphia Flyers’ Player Boycotts Team’s Pride Celebrations on Religious Grounds, Faces BacklashPhiladelphia Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov refused to show up for his team’s “Pride Night” warmups on Tuesday night, mounting a boycott on religious grounds.READ MOREFamily Gives Update on Georgia Boy Mauled by Pit Bulls: ‘He Just Wanted to Say Thank You to Everyone’The family of a boy in Georgia who was mauled by pit bulls has given an update on his recovery.READ MOREGreenpeace Slams WEF Elites for Flocking ‘to Davos in Ultra-Polluting, Socially Inequitable Private Jets to Discuss Climate’Environmental activist group Greenpeace has slammed elites gathering for the World Economic Forum’s summit this week for flocking “to Davos in ultra-polluting, socially inequitable private jets to discuss climate.”READ MORETim Allen Mocks Biden over Classified Document ScandalHollywood star Tim Allen has broken his silence on Joe Biden’s classified documents scandal by mocking the Democrat president.READ MOREMoving House in the Dead of Winter Is Best Time for Bargains, New Study FindsA new study has found that moving house in the dead of winter has its advantages because it’s a good time to find bargains.READ MOREJudge Ends New York’s ‘Orwellian’ Vaccine Mandate: ‘Null, Void, No Effect’A state Supreme Court judge has shut down New York’s Covid vaccine mandate, blasting the order as “Orwellian” and ruling that the order is “null, void, and of no effect.”READ MOREBrian Stelter Warns World Economic Forum Elites about ‘Disinformation’Former CNN anchor Brian Stelter made an appearance at the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual summit in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday where he warned global elites about the alleged “danger” of so-called “disinformation.”READ MOREU.K Government Steps In to Block Scotland’s ‘Woke’ Transgender LegislationThe United Kingdom’s government has stepped in to block Scotland from implementing a new “woke” transgender legislation.READ MOREBuffalo Bills QB Describes ‘Spiritual Awakening’ after Damar Hamlin Collapse: ‘God Is Real’Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has described experiencing a “spiritual awakening” after his teammate Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field while suffering a cardiac arrest mid-game.READ MOREBorder Patrol Union Calls for Kamala Harris to ‘Be Fired for Doing Nothing While Illegal Immigration Explodes’The Border Patrol union has slammed Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris for doing “nothing while illegal immigration explodes” in America.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Glad to see Michael Every back.  This is a must read!

(Michael Every)

From “Goldilocks” To “Dreadlocks”: 2023 Has Its Own Surprises For Us

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 09:40 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

2023 has its own surprises for us

Surprise! New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinta Ardern just quit. She “no longer has enough left in the tank to do the job,” apparently, and will be gone after 7 February. There was no immediate reaction in the NZD, and the Kiwis are hardly the mighty All Blacks on the global stage, but it does show that 2023 can contain real surprises.

A larger shock was dealt yesterday by BOJ Governor Kuroda, who showed Yield Curve Control still has lots left in the tank: and JPY and JGB yields tumbled. As mentioned briefly yesterday, the pre-BOJ trade pricing higher yields and JPY strength looked questionable even before the terrible core machine orders data that proceeded that central bank blast. Inflation in Japan, as the BOJ laid out, is not at the ‘sustainable 2%’ target –CPI is out tomorrow– and won’t get there for years, or ever. There are valid reasons for expecting a policy reversal: the change of governorship in months; everyone else hiking; and the BOJ soon struggling to find JGBs to buy in a zombified market. However, how does an economy so indebted survive higher yields? Plus, if Japan runs trade surpluses again (unlike today’s deficit data, with imports surging more than exports) it will be able to run an undeclared MMT-lite, as before; and if it can’t, JPY would sink anyway, as local yields could never compete with global rates. In short, over the long term it’s hard to be a JPY bull, even if you can try to risk being a JGB bear if you enjoy the pain trade.

The larger-than-expected slump in US PPI and retail sales was not a surprise of the same magnitude, but took some air out of balloons expecting a ‘Goldilocks’ growth deceleration, inflation decline, and rates pause. Rather, alongside Fed calls for both a 25bp and a 50bp hike next, those data suggests the ‘dreadlocks’ scenario of higher rates and a recession.

The Fed’s Beige Book had a shock too, if you read it right: retailers noted high inflation continued to reduce consumers’ purchasing power, particularly for low- and moderate-income households; selling price increases were moderating; and “little growth” was seen ahead. Most importantly, many firms were hesitating to lay off employees even as demand slowed, and planned to reduce headcount through attrition instead. That’s related to the Bloomberg story yesterday flagging new research on the US –echoed globally– underlining how Covid has changed the labor market: the urban working poor, hit by the rich decamping to work from home, decamped too – and they won’t go back to the labor pool while it treats them like a labor camp. Imagine the shock to markets if unemployment refuses to rise, and so rates have to keep doing so until something eventually breaks, which it will (with shadow banking top of the list of vulnerabilities). Meanwhile, jobs layoffs are ironically coming for the decamped rich in US tech and vanilla banking.    

In Australia, the key December jobs data this morning were also a shock, with full-time jobs up 17.6K and part-time jobs -32.2K, dragging the total figure to -14.6K, and the unemployment rate up a tick to 3.5%. Obviously, AUD didn’t like that; but the RBA, sweating bullets over rate hikes, did. I have no intention of squandering my carefully-built professional reputation for not taking these data seriously. Yes, the looming mortgage cliff in 2023 could prove a massive shock to the economy; no, it’s unlikely to be happening already. At least not when retail sales were booming the month before, every anecdotal report is that if you can fog a mirror you can have a job; and the new Labor (stress LABOR) government is going to allow 300,000 permanent migrants in to fill critical skills gaps.

Treasury Secretary Yellen’s ‘surprise’ meeting with China’s Liu He in Zurich far from surprisingly saw her state that she will visit China soon: after all, both sides are currently pretending that we are back in 2015, even if underlying issues are nowhere near being resolved. (As the new US House Committee focused on China makes clear.)

So, what surprises will today spring? If you listen to some rumors, potentially Russia declaring the end of its Special Military Operation…. and declaring war instead: President Putin is to give another major speech today commemorating the 80th anniversary of the breaking of the Nazi siege of Leningrad, and that is part of the speculation of what he might say.

Would this actually matter, given the West is already calling it a war (while no longer covering it much in the day-to-day headlines)? Yes. Russia is still not operating a war economy that would direct all of its efforts towards Ukraine. In fact, until now Putin has taken pains to try to ring-fence the conflict from day-to-day life, most so for Moscow and St. Petersburg. By declaring war and/or mobilising, far more men, resources, and national energy would be targeted westwards, and more extreme measures could be taken internally, where rumours are again of border closures.

Some in the West are taking this possibility seriously. Stars and Stripes, says: ‘NATO warns of Russia’s long war in Ukraine, vows to be ready’. However, Western markets are playing ‘Happy Xmas (War is Over)’ by John Lennon deep into January.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov yesterday stated that Ukraine is being used as proxy by the West, or are “waging war against our country with the same task: the ‘final solution’ of the Russian question…Just as Hitler wanted a ‘final solution’ to the Jewish question, now, if you read Western politicians…they clearly say Russia must suffer a strategic defeat.” In contrast, Western foreign policy analyst Ulrich Speck recently put it that “Either Russia’s defeat will deal a decisive blow to its imperial ambitions, or any Russian achievements in the war will encourage it to continue reshaping the continent by force.“ Where is the Lennon in all this Nazism vs. Imperialism?

In Davos, Henry Kissinger says Ukraine should now join NATO, and neutrality is no longer an option, reversing his previous stance after seeing what happened with Finland and Sweden. Germany says it will only supply Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and allow them to be sent there by anybody else, if the US provides Abrams tanks too: NATO either goes all in, or it doesn’t go in at all, is Berlin’s message. So, which will it be, if Russia declares war and/or mobilises?

Consider the economic impact of a further escalation. The war would shift from military inventories to military production, and between a war economy and an anything-but-war economy. Yet the CSIS already point out it will take 2.5 to 18 years to rebuild key US arms inventories Ukraine is depleting even before any escalation. Another report notes ‘The US Can’t Make Enough Plutonium Triggers for Its Nuclear Warheads’, as Russia and China accelerate their nuclear arms programs.

Of course, defense spending in most Western countries is small beer compared to the rest of the economy – but that is the point: it would need to rise rapidly, and stay high. And it would do this in a very tight labour market: would those losing tech jobs producing trigger warnings have to be reallocated to producing triggers? The point is a serious one behind the pun.

Even if all this scares you or bores you into focusing only on what stocks or bond yields did yesterday, consider the rate implications of military escalation needing more production; and broader political-economy structural questions, given high debt levels; and global systemic ones, given the risks to markets from economic war of various forms. Or don’t – but you don’t then get to act all surprised again.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

END

8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.

NEW ZEALAND

Glad this COVID mandate witch is gone

(zerohedge)

Ardern Out: Tearful New Zealand Prime Minister Unexpectedly Announced Resignation

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 08:35 PM

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, one of the best known and longest faces of the globalist menace that steamrolled all personal rights and liberties during the period of world history known as “covid fascism” while arresting countless non conformists just so she could impose universal lockdowns and to enable the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to become stinking rich, said she would step down by Feb. 7 after more than five years as leader because she “lacks the energy” to do the job ahead of an election later this year.

“I believe that leading a country is the most privileged job anyone could ever have, but also one of the more challenging,” a tearful Ardern said. “You cannot and should not do it unless you have a full tank plus a bit in reserve for those unexpected challenges.”

“I know what this job takes, and I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice,” the now former prime minister said. “But I absolutely believe and know there are others around me who do.”

She added: “This has been the most fulfilling five and a half years of my life. I am leaving because with such a privileged job comes a big responsibility.”

Opinion polls have shown Ardern’s center-left Labour Party trailing the opposition National party, although her own standing with voters was higher than other political leaders. Results of one survey released last month by 1 News Kantar showed support for Labour had fallen to 33%, from 41% around a year earlier. National topped that poll with 38%.

Translation: some huge scandal is about to emerge.

She said she is proud of what she has accomplished during her time as leader, citing progress on responding to climate change, addressing child poverty, easing access to education, improving worker conditions and dealing with issues of national identity

Labour lawmakers will elect a new leader of the party — and the country — in three days’ time, Ardern said.

Ardern said she had informed party members of her decision earlier in the day. She said would remain a member of Parliament for her electorate in the city of Auckland until April, in order to avoid the need for a by-election.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0816  UP  .0019 

USA/ YEN 128.55 UP  0.080/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2342 DOWN   0.0005

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 15.87 PTS OR 0.99% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 27.02 POINTS OR 0.12% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.51%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 27.02 PTS OR 0.12% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.87 PTS OR 0.49%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.51% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 385.89 PTS OR 1.44%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1908.65

silver:$23.40

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 102.06 DOWN .04  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.878% UP2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.405% DOWN 1 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.001%// UP 5  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.7356 UP 2   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.048% UP 3 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0796 DOWN 0.0002 or 2 basis points//

USA/Japan: 128.46  DOWN 0.080 OR YEN UP 8  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2363 UP.0017 OR  17 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts  to 1.3487

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 6.7769

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7815

TURKISH LIRA:  18.80  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.405…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.386% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.560 UP 2 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.08DOWN 3  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 83.41 PTS OR  1.07%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 261.44 POINTS OR 1.72%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 131.52 PTS OR 1.86% 

Spain IBEX DOWN 142.70 POINTS OR 1.60%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  DOWN 456.11  PTS OR  1.75%

WTI Oil price 81.78   12: EST

Brent Oil:  87.04  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  68,80/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 5/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.048

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.309  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0831  UP .0034    OR 34 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2392 UP   .0045  or  45 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.344% UP 6 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 128.43   DOWN 0.114/YEN  UP 12 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3458 DOWN .0037 (CDN dollar, UP 37 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 80.45

Brent OIL:  86.23

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 3.401%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 3.569%

USA dollar index:101.80 DOWN 31  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.79

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  68.80  DOWN  0 AND  5/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 252,40 PTS OR 0.76% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 114.62 PTS OR 1.00%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.30 UP 0.16 PTS (0.79)%

GLD: $179.89 UP 2.82 OR 1.59%

SLV/ $21.98 UP .38 OR 1.76%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Gold Jumps, Dow Dumps YTD Gains As ‘Hard Landing’ & Debt-Ceiling Fears Surge

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 04:00 PM

The Fed has a problem – as the ‘economy’ trends towards recession, the ‘labor’ market is refusing to take any notice of monetary policy and hawkish jawboning…

Source: Bloomberg

The risks of a hard-landing recession are soaring as the yield curve inversion (Powell’s favorite indicator is the 3m bill yield 18 m fwd spread to the current 3m Bill) deepens to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And on top of that, the debt-ceiling fears are back, with a notable kink appearing in the T-Bill curve around June/July

As Jeffrey Frankel opined, ‘this debt-ceiling fight may be different’:

As Washington gears up for yet another partisan showdown over whether to raise the debt ceiling, with congressional Republicans seeking concessions from Democrats in exchange for their votes, many are understandably nonchalant about it. Americans feel they have seen this movie before, and the story usually ends with the bickering politicians reaching a last-minute compromise. So, no need to ring the alarm bells. But this reboot could have a different, tragic ending. In the 1955 movie Rebel Without a Cause, James Dean’s character survives a deadly game of “chicken” by jumping out of his car at the last moment while his rival miscalculates and drives off a California cliff. With the US economy barreling toward the cliff’s edge, it is clear that intransigent Republicans have no intention of hitting the brakes. This could mean a once-unthinkable US government default. Unfortunately, letting Republicans drive the US economy off a cliff may be President Joe Biden’s best option right now. But the US still has at least five months to jump out of the car… By then, hopefully, crashing securities markets, outraged beneficiaries, and shifting voter attitudes would finally persuade enough holdouts to raise the debt ceiling. In the meantime, we have no choice but to let this game of chicken play out.

But judging by the market’s sudden bid for USA Sovereign credit risk protection (back near record highs), we suggest things are a little more serious this time…

Source: Bloomberg

Piling on, Fed vice-chair Brainard piled on noting that “rates need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time” and claimed that financial conditions have tightened significantly (true but the last 3 months have seen financial conditions ease back dramatically)…

Source: Bloomberg

Futures drifted lower overnight, accelerating losses during the European session and then again accelerating as the US cash markets opened. The European close, coincided with Fed’s Brainard’s comments and stocks rebounded but all the majors ended the day in the red for a second day…

The Dow has erased all of its gains YTD…

The S&P 500 opened back below its 50DMA, rallied up to it but stalled and sold off into the close…

The Nasdaq also broke back below its 50DMA today…

“Most Shorted” stocks tumbled for the second day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold today – though only modestly (with the whole curve 3-4bps higher). The whole curve remains lower in yield on the week though, led by the belly…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-end (STIRs) shifted modestly hawkishly today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar trod water most of the day but limped lower after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied back above $21,000 today…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, bitcoin and big-tech have de-correlated in the last couple of days…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied on the day, despite a major crude build, as China re-opening fears trumped US domestic recession fears today…

Gold surged to new cycle highs above $1930 – the highest since April 2022…

Finally, the market remains almost 75bps (3 x 25bps) more dovish than The Fed for where rates are at the end of this year…

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed fold? Again?

EARLY MORNING TRADING/

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

Powell will not like this: initial jobless claims plunge to 8 month lows

(zerohedge)

Despite Mass Layoffs, Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 8-Month Lows

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:50 AM

The US labor market appears to about as strong as it has ever been as the number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits plunged to 190k (well below the 214k expectation) – its lowest level since April 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The non-seasonally-adjusted level of initial claims also reversed lower.

Want to know what drove this unusual drop in claims? Simple – New York saw jobless collapse – a massive outlier…

This has to be storm-related in some way.

Continuing jobless claims rose last week, up from 1.63mm to 1.647mm…

Source: Bloomberg

This is very much not the picture that Jay Powell is hoping to see… At the start of last year, monetary policy transmission was working – jobless claims were rising as financial conditions tightened… then it all broke!

And now… Financial conditions easing and the labor market tightening.

Does that sound like a time for a ‘pause’?

end

END

A strong indicator as to the lousy USA economic scene.  Housing is a major component of GDP

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts, Building Permits Plunged In December… And It’s About To Get Worse

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 08:41 AM

US Housing Starts and Building Permits both declined in December (-1.4% MoM and -1.6% MoM respectively) with starts better than expected but forward-looking permits below expectations. This is the 3rd straight month of declines in permits and 4th straight drop in starts…

Source: Bloomberg

Total Starts and Permits hit new cycle lows, back to the 2020 COVID lockdown levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Single-family Building Permits tumbled for the 10th straight month (while multi-family starts rebounded notably in December). The pictyure was the opposite for Housing starts where single-family starts soared 11.3% MoM while multi-family starts plunged 18.9% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Judging by homebuilder sentiment, building permits are not bouncing back anytime soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, to summarize, in 2022, about 1 million one-family houses were started, down 10.6% from 2021.

Is that what Jay Powell wants? More scarcity, less supply?

end

Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge remains in negative territory for 5th straight month in January

Jan. 19, 2023 at 8:48 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Index improves a bit to negative 8.9 versus negative 13.7 in prior month

The numbers: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity rose slightly to negative 8.9 in January from negative 13.7 in the prior month. Any reading below zero indicates improving conditions. This is the fifth straight negative reading and the seventh in the last eight months.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected a negative 10 reading in January.

Key details: The barometer on new orders increased 11 points but remained at negative 10.9 in January. The shipments index rose12 points to 11. Employment measures strengthened in the month. The measure on six-month business outlook rose to 4.9 in January from negative 0.9 in the prior month.

Big picture: The Philadelphia Fed index is one of several regional manufacturing gauges that offer timely reads of the manufacturing sector.

Earlier this week, the similar Empire State survey released by the New York Fed showed manufacturing activity sank 21.7 points to negative 32.9 in January.

Both readings are followed by investors because they are seen as early indicators of national manufacturing activity. The national ISM manufacturing index contracted in December for the second straight month, falling to 48.4% from 49% in the prior month.

Some economists are saying the factory sector has entered into recession territory due to the strong dollar, weak demand for goods and a weak global economy.

-END-

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Wow!! this is huge: a massive 68% cancellation rate on all new home contracts initiated in the 4th quarter.

Buyer Cancellation Rate At Top US Homebuilder Surpasses 2008 Levels 

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 05:55 PM

The latest evidence that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s most aggressive interest rate hikes in a generation and spiking mortgage rates might trigger a housing “reset” is the latest earnings report from KB Home, one of the nation’s largest publicly traded homebuilders.

What caught our attention in the report was the skyrocketing buyer cancellation rate in the fourth quarterThe rate spiked to 68%, up from 35% in the third quarter and up from 13% in the fourth quarter of 2021. 

“Current conditions remain challenging. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation, together with an uncertain economy, have made homebuyers more cautious since the middle of last year. As such, in the fourth quarter, we prioritized delivering our large backlog and protecting our high margins over taking steps to stimulate additional sales during this seasonally slower time frame,” KB Home told investors. 

For some context, a 68% cancellation rate surpasses even the darkest days of the 2008 housing crash. The average back then was about 47%. 

Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of real estate Reventure Consulting, expanded more on the KB cancelation rate crisis. He said the people walking away from their contracts could spark a massive inventory pile-up. This is a good thing, considering housing inventories nationwide are tight, though too much supply could send home prices tumbling because of an affordability crisis. 

Here’s more from Gerli:

This is scary. KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory. Last year the Cancel Rate was only 13%.

1) This type of Cancellation Rate is even worse than what happened in 2008 Crash. Back then builders like DR Horton peaked at a 50% Cancel Rate. And we already blew past that in late 2022.

2) The result is a massive pile-up of New Home Inventory. Data from Zonda shows that National Quick Move-In Inventory is now around 32,000. That’s up 200% from one year ago. And up 50% from pre-pandemic, 2019 levels.

3) And there’s even more New Homes coming in 2023. Because even as builders have cut back on starts, they are still building nearly 800k single-family homes actively under construction. Near the highest level of all-time. Many of which will hit the market in 2023.

4) So here’s the fact pattern for Builders: 

  • Horrible buyer demand. 
  • Record Cancellations.Current inventory highest since 2015
  • Future inventory even higher based on homes under construction 

You would think based on that, Builder Stocks would be tanking right? WRONG.

5) KB Homes, the builder with 68% Cancellations, is actually UP on stock price over the last month. And also up over the last 6 Months.

6) DR Horton, the largest builder in America, is trading near their all-time high at $95. And they’re up 85% over the last 5 Years.

7) Home Builder stocks are in a massive BUBBLE right now. Homebuyer Demand is literally at its lowest levels since 2008 Crash. Yet Builder stocks are trading near all-time highs. Makes no sense.

8) Until you look at the P/E Ratio for builders. And you realize they’re actually “cheap” based on Earnings. DR Horton: 5.8x P/E KB Homes: 4.1x P/E So investors say to themselves, “wow, I can get good value by buying builder stocks. Even in a Housing Crash/Recession.”

9) The problem: Home Builder Earnings lag by about 12-18 Months. Through most of 2022, when builders announced earnings, it was income based on contracts signed from buyers in 2021. During the peak of the Housing Bubble. Creating low P/E Ratios and the illusion for “value”.

10) But now that the calendar is in 2023, and we’ve had six months of suppressed sales, and cancel rates are high, builders are going to have some BRUTAL earnings reports coming up. Expect more 50%+ cancel rates. Expect huge YoY declines in earnings.

11) The Builder Stock Bubble is a great example of the mania that still exists today in the market. Fundamentals are clearly saying: big issues for Housing Market and Builder Earnings in 2023. But investors are completely ignoring it.

Recall the National Association of Home Builders Confidence is at its lowest reading since mid-2012

Gerli’s latest blog post on Reventure indicates this is a “recipe for a Builder Stock Crash in 2023. Prepare for big declines.” 

And perhaps the second housing bubble of the 21st century has not just peaked but is over

end

This is huge!! the USA consumer has definitely cracked.  The Discover credit card issuer reports that they will have a gross 5% charge off due to delinquency

(zerohedge_

The US Consumer Has Cracked: Discover Plunges After “Shocking” Charge-Off Forecast

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 01:05 PM

One week ago we looked at the latest consumer credit data where we found not one but two flashing red alerts:

  • First, the total amount of credit card debt hit a new all time high, which however was to be expected from one of the most consistently increasing series across all US economic data, and one which predictably is correlated to the US savings rate which is at all time lows.

  • Second, thanks to the Fed’s crusade to spark a great recession, the average rate across US credit cards just rose to an all time high 19%+

Summarizing these ominous trends we concluded that…

The combination of record high credit card debt and record high credit card interest is nothing short of catastrophic for both the US economy, and the strapped consumer who has no choice but to keep buying on credit while hoping next month’s bill will somehow not come. Unfortunately, it will and at some point in the very near future, this will also translate into massive loan losses for US consumer banks; that’s when Powell will finally panic.

And while the big US banks are diversified enough – and flooded with enough reserves for now – to deflect attention from spiking charge offs rates on their balance sheets, even though as we discussed last week the credit loss provisions (a hedge against a spike in bad debt) across the Big Four banks did in fact jump the most in a decade (excluding the covid shock)…

… some of the smaller credit-card companies can no longer avoid the reality that the US consumer has finally cracked and a wave of defaults is coming.

Presenting Exhibit A: Discover Financial Services (DFS), a credit card issuer which traditionally targets to low to middle-income households, and which yesterday reported earnings that were so scary, Wall Street has uniformly dubbed them “shocking.” But while the bulk of the company’s historical results were actually not all that bad, it was its forecast that a stunner: in a presentation on its website, DFS forecast that its charge offs would climb as high as 3.9% this year (it gave a range of 3.50% to 3.90%) which is more than double the 1.82% net charge off rate it booked for all of 2022 and was about 100bps higher than the 2.8% consensus estimate.

Cutting to the chase, this is what the company’s historical and projected charge offs look like:

And since this is a net number, the gross number will likely hit 5% or more, a level not seen outside of painful recessions.

As Bloomberg explains, credit cards typically reach their peak loss rates about 18 months after origination. That means that Discover is expecting losses to tick up this year on accounts it started in 2021, which was a much bigger year for credit-card growth than 2020, when the pandemic forced the company to curtail new business. Starting last year, Discover began gradually tightening underwriting standards by offering smaller lines of credit to new customers, although the combination of a recession plus tapped out consumers will ensure a surge in charge offs for that and any one vintage. 

Wall Street was predictably unhappy with this doubling in the company’s charge off forecast. Here is a summary of analyst reactions:

Piper Sandler, Kevin Barker

  • While DFS’s topline was stronger, it missed estimates mainly because of an increase in provisions due to outsize growth, along with higher operating expense growth
  • Analyst notes the “rapid” net charge-off (NCO) growth will likely be an issue across the industry due to outsize growth the past two years

Oppenheimer, Dominick Gabriele

  • “Consensus shocker” is DFS’s NCO guidance; even to reach the low end, it likely means charge-offs near 5%
  • Peers may not share DFS’s expected NCO normalization/ramp, yet it will likely make investors incrementally cautious on low FICO players, analyst says
  • Notes that management team is generally conservative and believes that some investors will see the guidance as too bearish

KBW, Sanjay Sakhrani

  • Says that it was a better-than-expected quarter but the outlook for net charge-offs is likely weighing on the stock
  • Notes that the forecast “likely contemplates a range of scenarios on the macroeconomic backdrop”
  • Adds that while investors are “nervous” about credit quality, the guidance isn’t “thesis- changing”

Citigroup, Arren Cyganovich

  • “We expect DFS shares to underperform peers on Thursday given a much higher expected 2023 net-charge off guide than the street”
  • Says rest of the company’s guidance was mixed but notes that “earnings materials lacked details of assumptions included in the guidance, which would appear to us to imply the beginnings of a mild recession assumed”
  • “While likely a positive long-term, investors will likely question growing consumer loans by double digits as we likely enter into a recession”

Chief Executive Officer Roger Hochschild tried to put some lipstick on the big, and told Bloomberg that “The losses are going up from artificially low levels,” adding that “overall, we feel really good about what we’re seeing in our portfolio” the market did not share his sentiment and DFS shares tumbled as much as 7.7%, their biggest drop in 6 months before recovering some losses. The company’s results also weighed on rivals Capital One and Synchrony, with all three credit-card issuers among the worst performers in the 67-company S&P 500 Financials Index.

As for the company’s charge off forecast, we can assume that it was made with the company not making a recession its base case. So throw a recession in, a tapped-out consumer with a record low savings rate which means most middle class spending is now funded on credit, and you have an extremely explosive mixture just waiting for a match.

end

Car-mageddon?? Auto Insider Predicts Car Prices To Fall This Year

THURSDAY, JAN 19, 2023 – 01:25 PM

Via Wealthion.com,

Car prices went bananas after COVID hit — propelled by inventory shortages from disrupted supply chains & the unprecedented stimulus sent to businesses & households.

Now here in 2023, the boom is looking over.

Used car prices, which nearly doubled post-COVID, fell for most of 2022 — though they still remain much higher than their pre-pandemic lows.

Also, lax lending standards in extending auto loans during the recent boom are coming back to bite lenders — the percentage of loans that are at least 60 days delinquent are at their highest in more than a decade.

Where is the auto market headed from here?

Will patient buyers be rewarded with better values in 2023?

To find out, Wealthion’s Adam Taggart interviewed Lucky Lopez, an automotive industry YouTuber whose boots-on-the-ground reporting has recently propelled him into the mainstream media’s spotlight.

Watch the video below to hear Lucky’s insider take:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/car-mageddon-auto-insider-predicts-car-prices-fall-year

For more free interviews like these with top Money & Markets experts, visit Wealthion’s YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/wealthion

end

What numbskulls: Biden administration  urging judges to lift stay on CDC airplane mask mandate

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Biden Administration Urges Judges To Lift Stay On CDC’s Airplane Mask Mandate

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 10:55 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden’s administration in a court hearing on Jan. 17 urged judges on a federal appeals court to overturn a ruling from a lower court that struck down the administration’s airplane mask mandate.Travelers walk through Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on April 19, 2022. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had “good cause” to impose the mandate and bypass the notice- and comment period required by the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), Brian Springer, an attorney for the government, told judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit.

At the time the mandate was imposed, in early 2021, “there were variants that had just been detected that showed signs of increased transmissibility, and people were starting to travel again,” Springer said. “In those circumstances, the CDC had good cause to issue this order, particularly when the CDC detailed the reasons why in this particular environment, namely in the transportation sector and in transportation settings, COVID had a specific tendency to spread among people who are traveling together because they’re standing together in lines and sitting together on conveyances.”

One of the judges expressed skepticism with the line of thinking, accusing the CDC of issuing “boilerplate” language to impose the mandate without a notice and comment period. Under a ruling in a separate case, boilerplate statements that COVID-19 exists and that there’s a public emergency aren’t sufficient to satisfy the “good cause” exception to the APA. Springer disagreed, saying the CDC’s statement provided rationale that met the standard.

U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, a Trump appointee, said in her 2022 ruling that the CDC violated the APA by only issuing a single conclusory sentence to support ducking the notice requirements.

She noted that at the time the order was issued, around a year had passed since the beginning of the pandemic, and COVID-19 cases in America were on the decline.

Brent Hardaway, arguing for Health Freedom Defense Fund, which brought the case, said that the mandate was “very strange” given that airplanes and many airports already had mandates in place, in addition to the decline in cases.

Does the CDC Have Authority to Mandate Masks?

Other portions of the hearing went over arguments as to whether the CDC has the authority to mandate masks.

U.S. code gives the federal government the power to enforce regulations judged as “necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the States or possessions, or from one State or possession into any other State or possession.”

The government, to enforce such measures, “may provide for such inspection, fumigation, disinfection, sanitation, pest extermination, destruction of animals or articles found to be so infected or contaminated as to be sources of dangerous infection to human beings, and other measures, as in his judgment may be necessary,” the statute says.

In striking down the CDC’s moratorium on evictions, the Supreme Court found that the agency overstepped the authority outlined in the law. But the court also said the law empowered the CDC to impose measures that “directly relate to preventing the interstate spread of disease by identifying, isolating, and destroying the disease itself.”

The decision “recognized that conventional measures to identify, isolate and destroy communicable diseases fall within the statute,” Springer said. “The CDC’s mask order was a very modest way to, and a traditional way to, prevent this interstate spread of disease that falls directly within the heartland of what the Supreme Court told us that this statute covers.”

Springer asked the court to narrow the district court’s decision from applying to all travelers to just the five individuals that brought the case. If the court agrees, it would enable the mask mandate to take effect again for virtually all Americans inside airports, airplanes, and some other transportation settings.

Mizelle has ruled that mask mandates don’t fall under sanitation and that the “other measures” were limited, based on a reading of the history of the law and court rulings.

“The mask mandate is best understood not as sanitation, but as an exercise of the CDC’s power to conditionally release individuals to travel despite concerns that they may spread a communicable disease (and to detain or partially quarantine those who refuse). But the power to conditionally release and detain is ordinarily limited to individuals entering the United States from a foreign country,” Mizelle wrote, noting that a part of the law only allows for the detention of a person traveling between the states if that person is “reasonably believed to be infected” and is actually found “upon examination” to be infected.

That means the CDC exceeded its authority in issuing the mandate, the judge said.

Hardaway, in court on Tuesday, said that the law does not give the CDC the ability to impose mask mandates, though one of the judges questioned whether that was true.

“It just seems strange to me that an agency like the Center for Disease Control doesn’t have the authority to require travelers to wear a mask when they travel as a way to prevent the spread of communicable disease in the context of a global pandemic,” the judge said. “If they don’t have that authority, what authority do they have?”

Hardaway said the eviction ruling showed why it was not odd and urged the judges to look at the law, which has been used by the government to impose various measures.

“Their reading of sanitation is basically any measure that may promote sanitation,” he said. “It’s basically going to have the same kind of sweeping implications of the rule that the Supreme Court rejected.”

USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES

SWAMP STORIES

About time:

McCarthy rejects the White House demand for a “clean” debt ceiling hike

Tapscot/EpochTimes

McCarthy Rejects White House Demand For “Clean” Debt-Ceiling Hike

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 07:35 PM

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) rejected President Joe Biden’s demand that Congress increase the nation’s debt ceiling without attaching any conditions such as the spending cuts that virtually all congressional Republicans are demanding.Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks at a news conference in Statuary Hall of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 12, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

In an informal news conference with reporters just outside the Capitol, McCarthy said “we’re six months away, approximately, and what I would like to do is sit down with all the leaders, especially the President, and start having the discussion.”

The Speaker said Biden’s refusal to discuss anything other than a “clean” increase in the debt ceiling, which limits federal borrowing, is “a sign of arrogance that he would say he wouldn’t even discuss it. I mean think about what the Democrats have done just in four years, they’ve increased discretionary spending by 30 percent. When Republicans were in control for eight years, discretionary spending didn’t go up one dollar.”

Noting the national debt is nearly $32 trillion, McCarthy asked “why would you do this to any future generation in anything we do? Why wouldn’t you sit down and talk, especially with something as serious as a debt limit; why would you want to wait until the end? Who wants to put the nation through some type of threat at the last minute with the debt ceiling? Nobody wants to do that.”A Peterson Foundation billboard displaying the national debt is pictured on K Street in downtown Washington on Feb. 8, 2022. (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Peter G. Peterson Foundation)

McCarthy added that “any household that was mis-spending, the first thing they would do is sit down and set a budget. Why wouldn’t we request the House and Senate to do a budget … why wouldn’t we now set a budget, set a path that will get us to a balanced budget? And let’s start paying this debt off and make sure future generations have as many opportunities as we do.”

Medicare, Social Security and the military would not be subject to spending cuts, according to McCarthy, who said Biden’s demand for a debt ceiling increase without strings is “off the table.”

Biden Responds to Demand for Cuts

McCarthy’s comment follows Biden’s Jan. 16 remark describing Republican demands that the debt ceiling increase be combined with significant cuts in federal spending as “fiscally demented.” The interest costs of servicing the national debt are in excess of $500 billion annually.

Congress approved and Biden signed into law a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill in late December that keeps the government funded through September. The immediate problem is that federal borrowing to pay for the omnibus bill technically will hit the debt ceiling Jan. 19, according to Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.

As a practical matter, the Treasury department has ways of avoiding a default on the debt interest payments that would give Biden and the Congress several months in which to work out a deal involving a boost in the ceiling combined with some level of specific spending cuts sought by House Republicans.President Joe Biden speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, on Jan. 11, 2023, as he accompanies First Lady Jill Biden to Walter Reed hospital. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

House Republicans are backing McCarthy’s demand for spending cuts. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) issued a Jan. 17 statement in which he says “every major piece of financial legislation ought to come with some incremental, responsible spending cuts to keep us moving along a trajectory towards a balanced budget.

That’ll take time and effort of course, but whether it’s a normal appropriations bill or something like a debt ceiling increase, every step along the way represents another opportunity to cut a little more spending to help balance the budget within 10 years.

Concerns Over National Debt

Similarly, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) issued a warning to her GOP colleagues and an unexpected vow, saying, “Our national debt is approaching a level not just harmful to economic growth and irresponsible to future generations, but dangerous to our national security today. We are entering treacherous waters and must couple any debt ceiling increases with real reforms.”

The Indiana Republican continued, saying “huge amounts of politically directed spending and crony capitalism have created a significant oligopoly problem in nearly every market sector—not much different from oligarchs ruling in post-socialist countries. Health care monopolies lobbied by special interest groups, like hospitals, is one of the major examples.

Read more here…

END

Fantastic commentary on the documents and Hunter Biden’s nefarious activities

(Michael Shellenberger)

Classified Docs Were At Biden House While Hunter Took Millions For “Representing F**king Spy Chief Of China”

WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 – 08:15 PM

Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Public,

For the last week and a half, defenders of President Joe Biden have said that the way he allegedly mishandled classified documents was not as dangerous, illegal, or inappropriate as the way former President Donald Trump allegedly mishandled classified documents.

But we now know that Hunter Biden was taking millions of dollars from businessmen tied to Chinese military intelligence while living at the home of his father, President Joe Biden, where classified documents, including ones relating to foreign nations, were recently found.

We additionally know that Hunter Biden was in the grip of a debilitating addiction to cocaine and alcohol and that he experienced frequent blackouts and loss of memory.

There is no evidence that Hunter Biden, willingly or unwillingly, sober or intoxicated, took classified documents from his father’s residence in Delaware and gave them to his client, a Chinese businessman named Patrick Ho.

There’s no evidence that Hunter Biden accessed the documents, but — God-forbid — the opportunity existed for him to do so,” said investigative journalist Peter Schweitzer, who has tracked the Biden family’s business ties to the Chinese government, including military intelligence, over the last five years.

During the time that Hunter lived in his father’s residence, between 2017 and 2018, Hunter and the entities he and his uncle, James Biden, President Biden’s brother, controlled received at least $4.8 million from a Chinese energy conglomerate called CEFC, which is tied to the Chinese military. Hunter Biden received an additional $1 million from Patrick Ho, a CEFC official.

“After Ho is arrested in late 2017, the first phone call he makes is to James Biden, the president’s brother, because he’s looking for Hunter,” said Schweitzer.

Why is that? What was going on between the Bidens and the Chinese government, exactly? And what does it all mean?

Hunter’s former client Patrick Ho is a criminal convicted and sentenced to three years in prison. Ho was sentenced for his role in a multimillion-dollar effort to bribe leaders from Chad and Uganda. That appears to be what Ho was attempting to do with Hunter: bribe him in order to buy protection from his powerful father. A CEFC intermediary reached out to Hunter Biden in December 2015 to set up a meeting between Hunter and Ye Jianming, the founder and chairman of CEFC, according to emails from Hunter Biden’s laptop hard drive. Hunter Biden at one point said he was working for Ye. Hunter, in a voicemail found on his laptop, tells a colleague,  “I’m representing the f**king spy chief of China.”

What does it all mean? The evidence strongly suggests that the Chinese government was seeking to bribe the Biden family to gain advantages both in terms of energy and also to protect its sources.

Subscribers to Public can read the rest here…

end

THE KING REPORT

The King Report January 19, 2023 Issue 6030Independent View of the News
The Bank of Japan maintained its yield curve control policy, its large-scale JGB monetization scheme, its ~0% 10-year JGB target, and its benchmark rate of -0.1%.  ESHs soared 30 handles on the BoJ’s refusal to halt its funny money ways.  USHs jumped 1 10/32 and the yen/$ tanked 2.1% on the announcement.
 
The BoJ asserted, “[The bank] will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if neededit also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.”
BOJ Statement on Monetary Policy: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2023/k230118a.pdf
BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Priceshttps://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2301a.pdf
 
Microsoft to axe thousands of jobs in latest cull by tech giant
Contemplating cutting roughly 5% of its workforce, which if accurate would equate to approximately 11,000 jobs Salesforce, the cloud software provider, said it would cut 8,000 jobs, while Meta, the owner of Facebook, is reducing its workforce by approximately 11,000 roles…
https://news.sky.com/story/microsoft-to-axe-thousands-of-jobs-in-latest-cull-by-tech-giant-12788916
 
US Economic Data for December released on Wednesday was clearly recessionary.Retail Sales -1.1% m/m, 0.9% expected; Nov revised to -1.0% from -0.6%Ex-Auto Sales -1.1% m/m, -0.5% consensus; Nov revised to -0.6% from -0.2%Ex-Auto & Gas Sales -0.7%, unchanged expected; Nov revised to -0.5% from -0.2%PPI -0.5% m/m & 6.2% y/y, -0.1% & 6.8% expected; Nov revised to 0.2% m/m from 0.4%Core PPI +0.1% m/m & 5.5% y/y, 0.1% & 5.6% consensusIndustrial Production -0.7% m/m, -0.1% consensus; Mfg Production -1.3% m/m, -0.2% expCapacity Utilization 78.8%; 79.5% expected 
The BLS somehow got food prices DOWN 1.2% m/m in December.  Energy prices tumbled 7.9% m/m.  Goods prices sank 1.6% m/m while Services increased only 0.1% m/m.  Did the BLS also change PPI methodology, like it did for CPI, to educated, AKA politically motived, estimates?
 
Prices Will Keep Rising Despite ‘Peak Inflation’ Chatter, Warns Unilever CEO
“We know for sure there’s more inflationary pressure coming through in our input costs,” he said of Unilver. “We might be, at the moment, around peak inflation, but probably not peak prices,” he said…
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/prices-will-keep-rising-despite-peak-inflation-chatter-warns-unilever-ceo
 
What is the jabberwocky about having “peak inflation, but probably not peak prices?”  Is this an oblique reference to government stats showing lower inflation but actual prices still inflating?
 
Fed Beige, released yesterday: “Retailers noted that high inflation continued to reduce consumers’ purchasing power, particularly among low- and moderate-income households.”
 
@fcastofthemonth: The Q4 CPI data showed moderation in price pressures, but there are a few reasons to suspect that Q1 core inflation readings will temporarily move higher.  1) Residual seasonality; 2) Rents: higher for longer; 3) Used car px drops moderate; 4) Higher medical care services prices.
 
@NickTimiraos: Interesting observations here on upside inflation risks. Similarly, economists at Goldman Sachs last week noted the potential for an “echo effect” in January as many labor and supplier contracts are reset or renegotiated to reflect the previous year’s price changes.
 
@NickTimiraos: Bullard said his SEP rate projection for 2023 would take the funds rate to 5.25%-5.5% this year.  He sounded open to raising rates by 50 basis points on Feb. 1.  He likes the idea of taking out “insurance” against developments that could keep inflation high.  https://t.co/8rEpAvXNfk
 
Bullard also said, “We’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive – we’re not quite there yet.”  The usual suspects hyped ‘almost at restrictive rates’ instead of “not quite there yet.”
 
Fed’s Mester: Rate hikes have begun to quell US inflation
We’re not at 5% yet, we’re not above 5%, which I think is going to be needed given where my projections are for the economy… I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do.”…
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-system-cleveland-business-96e1eaf7d0f1a460e58226c0dabf1bd8
 
AP emphasized Mester’s comment that inflation has begun to quell by inserting it into its headline – instead of highlighting Mester’s comment that rates “need to keep going” higher.
 
Business Leaders Survey – A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
   Activity continued to decline significantly in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s January 2023 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell four points -21.4, its lowest level in nearly two years. The business climate index came in at -41.8, suggesting the business climate remains much worse than normal. Employment growth slowed to a crawl, though wage increases remained widespread. The pace of input price increases continued to trend lower, while the pace of selling price increases moved slightly higher. Looking ahead, firms do not expect conditions to be better in six months….
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview
 
Bonds soared on the BoJ’s continued promiscuous JGB monetization.  Bonds jumped even higher after the recessionary US economic data appeared.  ESHs and stocks sank on organic selling, including defensive asset allocation.  There was no Weird Wednesday equity rally!
 
JB Hunt propelled the DJTA sharply higher early on Wednesday even though JB Hunt issued mixed results.  JB Hunt tumbled 5.3% in pre-NYSE trading when it reported EPS of 1.92 with 2.44 expected.  Revenue grew 4.4% to $3.65B, but $3.81B was expected.  Operating expenses, AKA inflation, jumped 6.1% to $3.37B.  Intermodal volume fell 1% but revenue increased 11% on a 12% increase in revenue per load, AKA inflation.
 
Street shills, AKA analysts, heralded JB Hunt’s intermodal strength.  So, lemmings poured into JB Hunt, reversing the 5.3% tumble into a 6.1% surge.  You can’t make this up!
 
After jumping 20 handles on the BoJ Communique, ESHs rescinded most of their rally.  They rallied modestly during the final hours of Japanese and Chinese trading.  After a modest rally into the European open, ESHs rolled over and then went inert.  They rallied when the US bond market opened at 7 ET. 
 
ESHs spiked higher on the PPI release at 8:30 ET.  They quickly retreated on the other negative US economic data.  However, the usual suspects and conditioned traders bought ESHs for the pre-NYSE open rally.  ESHs and stocks slight a tad on the NYSE open.  But the usual suspects bought the dip.  ESHs then hit the daily high of 4033.50 at 10:06 ET.
 
ESHs and stocks then commenced a sharp decline that ended with ESHs at a daily low of 3956.50 at 13:11 ET.  After a 15-handle rally, ESHs rolled over at 13:50 ET.  ESHs and stocks then had an A-B-C decline into the final hour of trading.  After an 8-handle ESH spike at 15:08 ET, ESHs and stocks rolled over and declined sharply into the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA rallied sharply early in the session on analysts’ JB Hunt touts.
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks sank while bonds soared (USHs +2 12/32) on US recession concerns.
Commodities only declined modestly
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Did the rally for earnings results get traders too long? 
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3956.50
Previous session High/Low4014.16 3926.59
 
Former New York Times editor bashes paper for presence at Davos: ‘Corrupt circle-jerk’
‘Of course, the coverage was a sweetener to flatter the CEOs,’ she told Semafor
   Abramson told Semafor that while she was at the New York Times, the paper didn’t care about Davos. She added that her predecessor wanted to “ban reporters” from the event, according to Semafor.   “I noticed (after I was gone), much more ‘news’ coverage in the Times of Davos, quoting the attendees and speakers at those endless panels. Of course, the coverage was a sweetener to flatter the CEOs by seeing their names in the NYT so that they would then speak at high-dollar NYT conferences and — of course — get phony news stories from the conferences into the paper.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/former-new-york-times-editor-bashes-paper-presence-davos-corrupt-circle-jerk
 
Republicans introduce ‘Pandemic Is Over’ act after Biden’s ‘unacceptable’ extension of COVID emergency https://t.co/RV62J328QD
 
@ElectionWiz: Fully vaccinated and boosted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who once said Covid vaccinations are the key to the US economic recovery, tests positive today for COVID-19. Fed reports chair is experiencing “mild symptoms.”
 
Pfizer, Fauci staffers sign off on research finding mRNA COVID vaccines produce worse antibodies
Second study in a month to find “class switch” to so-called IgG4 antibodies, known for their mild immune response, in mRNA recipients alone. Future of Johnson & Johnson’s traditional vaccine unclear as demand craters…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/pfizer-fauci-staffers-sign-research-finding-mrna-covid-vaccines-produce
 
The FAA has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal. We should be concerned. Very concerned.  (Tucker Carlson noted this on Tuesday night.)
   After the vaccine rolled out, the FAA secretly widened the EKG parameter range for pilots so they wouldn’t be grounded. It looks like the vax gave at least 50M Americans heart damage.
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly
 
@TheChiefNerd: CNBC Hosts Are Amazed Moderna Was Working on a COVID Vaccine So Early
The last time we were here in Davos it was January 2020…and you were talking about how you were working on a vaccine for COVID. And at that point COVID-19 didn’t really exist in our minds. It’s amazing!”  https://t.co/FqRyFNXcFq
 
U.S. Warms to Helping Ukraine Target Crimea – The Biden administration is considering the argument that Kyiv needs the power to strike at the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html
 
The White House averred that there will be NO debt ceiling negotiations with House republicans.
 
After the close, Alcoa reported Q4 EBIDTA of $29m, $106.9m was consensus.  AA sank 5%.
 
Today – Recession angst on Wednesday torpedoed stocks and the usual expiry week upward manipulation.  Numerous irrationally exuberant traders got massively long on the inflation peak, the Fed Pivot, the New Year Rally, the expiry week manipulation, and Q4 earnings season.  Now, bulls must find someone to absorb their equity longs.  ESHs are -6.00 at 21:00 ET.
 
The risk for today is that Wednesday’s technical and psychological damage foments momentum selling of equites and expiring January puts going into the money produces ‘gamma to death’ liquidation.
 
Expected economic data: Dec Housing Starts 1.358m, Permits 1.365m; Phil Fed Business Outlook -11.0; Initial Jobless 214k, Continuing Claims 1.655m; Phil Fed Pres Harker 9 ET, Fed Gov Waller 13:00 ET; Expected earnings: PG 1.60, FAST .42, NFLX .42
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3923; 100-day MA: 3868; 150-day MA: 3906; 200-day MA: 3975
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,559; 100-day MA: 32,214; 150-day MA: 32,124; 200-day MA: 32,385
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3889.17 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3983.64 triggers a buy signal
 
Biden classified documents: 2019 photos from Delaware mansion show DESERTED Secret Service post… at the same time classified documents were believed to be in his garage… https://t.co/EXizjI5DXa
 
@paulsperry_: Subpoena-wielding House GOP investigators eyeing Biden researcher/ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer for questioning in classified docs scandal. Sources say Zwonitzer accessed Biden records for 2017 book hyping Ukraine workBiden unlawfully removed secret Ukraine docs from WH.
 
@elonmusk: Why did American media go from questioning the State and “speaking truth to power” to doing their bidding?
 
One percent of U.S. counties account for 42% of nationwide murders, study shows
Five percent of counties account for 73% of all murders while having less than half of the U.S. population, the study states…  In 2020, Cook County, Ill., had the most murders, 775. Los Angeles County, Calif., was No. 2, with 691 murders. Other counties with high numbers of homicides include Harris County, Texas; Philadelphia County, Pa.; and New York City…
https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/worst-1-counties-account-42-us-murders-study-shows

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter  interviewing 

I will see you TOMORROW

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