jan 24 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $7.35 at $1934.00
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.21 to $23.65
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1937,30
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.66
Bitcoin morning price:, 22949 UP 104 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22973 UP 128 dollars
Platinum price closing $1058.00 UP $7.80
Palladium price; closing 1742.75 UP $31.55
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,581.82 UP $10.49 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1560.31 UP 6.37 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1776.57 UP 2.91 euros per oz
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,927.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/23/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/25/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL 100
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 91
661 C JP MORGAN 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 4
TOTAL: 103 103
JPMorgan stopped 8/103
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 103 NOTICES FOR 10,300 OZ or 0.3203 TONNES
total notices so far: 6084 contracts for 608,400 oz (18.923 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 987 for 4,965,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $7.35
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES INTO THE GLD //
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 21 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20.00 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 518.700 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2255 CONTRACTS TO 134,669 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GIGANTIC GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.40 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. FOR THE PAST MONTH, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.40. BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3825 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 700 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( 700 CONTRACTS//3.5 MILLION OZ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 7.25 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 500 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 25,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 4.955 MILLION OZ + 7.25 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 12.23 MILLION OZ//// V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –360
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 8965 contracts: OR 48.825 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (598 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 48.825 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 48.825 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2255 DESPITE OUR $0.40 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1210 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 4.055 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ. JUMP / //NEW STANDING RISES TO 4.955 MILLION OZ + EFR 7.25 MILLION = 12.23 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 3825 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 19.125 MILLION OZ.. PLUS THE 700 GAIN// CRIMINAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT
WE HAD 7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4992 CONTRACTS TO 502,492 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -1174 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (4992 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR TINY $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 213 CONTRACTS OR 21,300 OZ //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 19.6174 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6808 OI CONTRACTS (21.17 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1816 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 502,492
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6808 CONTRACTS WITH 4992 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1816 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6808 CONTRACTS OR 221.17 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1816 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4992) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6808 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 21,300 OZ /NEW STANDING 19.6174 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
59,836 CONTRACTS OR 5,983,600 OZ OR 186.115 TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3989 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:186.115 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 186.115/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 186.115 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2255 CONTRACTS OI TO 134,669 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1210 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1210 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1219 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2615 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1210 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 3465 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17.325 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 40 CENT LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 393.15 PTS OR 1.86% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.40% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7881// /Oil DOWN TO 81.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.11 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4992 CONTRACTS UP TO 502,492 DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1816 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 1816 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1816 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6808 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1816 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 4992 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $0.25. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan (19.6174)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES
JAN/2023: 19.6174 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $0.25) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6808 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 24.827PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 21,300 oz OR 0.6625 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.25.
WE HAD – 1174CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6808 CONTRACTS OR 680800 OZ OR 21.17 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 268,151//fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 256,724///fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 24//
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 160,755.000 oz JPMorgan 5000 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 103 notice(s) 10300 OZ 0.3203 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 233 contracts 23300 oz 0.7247 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 6084 notices 608500 18.923 TONNES* *new record for a January |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 160,755.000 oz
total in tonnes: 5.000 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 326 contracts having lost 1124 contracts
We had 1337 notices served on Monday, so we gained 213 contracts or an additional 21300 oz(0.6625 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this
very non active delivery month of January. (queue jump).
February lost 14,300 contacts to 181,149 (looks like Feb. is going to be a huge delivery month//not contracting fast enough)_
March gained 20 contracts to stand at 1144.
April gained 17,761 contracts up to 261,518.
We had 1337 notice(s) filed today for 133,757 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 103 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6084 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JANUARY 326 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 103 x 100 oz per contract equals 630,700 OZ OR 19.6174 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of January. This is a new record for gold standing in the month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (6084 x 100 oz+ (326 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (103} x 100 oz} which equals 630,700 oz standing OR 19.6174 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 18.955 TONNES (A HUGE STANDING FOR METAL AND A NEW RECORD FOR ANY JANUARY MONTH )//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,910,035.089 OZ 59.41 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,326,853.148 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,039,578.731 OZ (343,37 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,287,272.417 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,129,543 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.96 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 24/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 456,984.964 oz Delaware JPMorgan |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 504,774.404 oz CNT Delaware JPMorgan |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 7 CONTRACT(S) (35,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3 contracts (15,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 993 contracts (4,965,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i) Into CNT 294,416.590 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 208,431.470 oz
Total deposits: 504,774.404 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 150.959 million oz/292.789 million =51.57% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Delaware: 16,284.510 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan: 440,700.454 oz
Total withdrawals; 456,984.964 oz
adjustments: 1/JPMorgan: dealer to customer//4,951.000 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 292,.89 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 10 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 6 NOTICES
FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACT(S) OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL STAND OVER HERE
FEB> GAINED 26 CONTRACTS TO 217 CONTRACTS
March GAINED 1464 CONTRACTS UP TO 111,024 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:7 for 35,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 89,040//strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,992 contracts ( fair)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 993 x 5,000 oz = 4,965,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(10) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 993 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (10 – number of notices served upon today (7) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 4.980 million oz + 7.25 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 12.23MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:52,938// est. volume today// fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 96,020 contracts ( very good/excellent)
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 917.06 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: WHAT!! A MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/( OCCURED (LATE LAST NIGHT)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//
JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//
JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 518.7 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
A must read:
Peter Schiff: Easing Price Inflation Is Transitory
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 08:42 AM
Last week, the Producer Price Index data finally showed some cooling of wholesale prices. That coupled with better-than-expected CPI data further buoyed hope that the Fed is winning the war on inflation. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff emphasized that easing inflation is transitory. And a weakening dollar will be a big part of the story.
The markets liked this number and that was part of the reason for a rally that day — the reaction to this better-than-expected news on inflation. But you have to remember that all of this better-than-expected news on inflation is transitory. So, it wasn’t the increase in inflation that was transitory. That’s permanent. What is transitory is this slight decrease that we’re enjoying now.”
It’s important to remember that even though the rate of increase is slowing down, prices are still going up.
They’re just not going up as fast as they were. But all of that is temporary because the reason that we saw a decline in the rate of increase in prices was because we got a correction in commodities, in particular oil prices. We’ve also got a decline in longer-term interest rates. That has affected mortgage rates and probably other debt payments that are being made. That is helping to reduce somewhat the rate of increase in costs businesses are experiencing. But all these factors are temporary.”
Peter noted that commodity prices have already reversed their decline.
One of the reasons commodity prices fell was the strength of the dollar. But the dollar completely reversed in the fourth quarter. On Sept. 27, just before the start of Q4, the dollar index reached 114.11. That was the highest level of the year. From there the dollar index fell by nearly 8%. Today, the DIX is hovering just above 101.
Peter said he expects this dollar weakness to continue for the balance of the year.
I still think that 2023 could end up being one of the worst years ever, and maybe the worst year ever for the US dollar, and that weakness is going to help propel consumer prices much higher. So, I believe that after this transitory reduction in the acceleration of the inflation rate, I think we’re going to head higher again and that before the year is over, we’re going to be printing year-over-year increases in the CPI that will eclipse the high from last year.”
Peter also covered some of the most recent economic data that came out last week. For instance, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January came in weak. And existing home sales also underscored the growing weakness in the housing market. In 2022, existing home sales fell by 34%. That was the single biggest drop in home sales ever.
That means the drop is bigger than it was during COVID. It’s bigger than it was at any point during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.”
Peter said this has very ominous implications for the economy in 2023 because a lot of economic activity that shows up in GDP is related to home sales.
So, all those people who are still clinging to the false hope that the economy is going to experience a soft landing are not reading any of the very bold upper-case letters clearly written on this collapsing wall.”
In this podcast, Peter also talks about the rollover in growth stocks, gold making a 9-month high last week, job losses in the tech sector, the wasteful meeting in Davos, and how a Netflix documentary on Bernie Madoff proves more regulations won’t help us.
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
Central Banks Turn To Gold As Losses Mount
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 01:06 PM
In 2022, central banks will have purchased the largest amount of gold in recent history. According to the World Gold Council, central bank purchases of gold have reached a level not seen since 1967. The world’s central banks bought 673 metric tons in one month, and in the third quarter, the figure reached 400 metric tons. This is interesting because the flow from central banks since 2020 had been eminently net sales.
Why are global central banks adding gold to their reserves? There may be different factors.
Most central banks’ largest percentage of reserves are US dollars, which usually come in the form of US Treasury bonds.
It would make sense for some of the central banks, especially China, to decide to depend less on the dollar.
China’s high foreign exchange reserves are a key source of stability for the People’s Bank of China. But the high amount of US dollars ($3.1 trillion) may have been a key stabilizing factor in 2022, but it could be too much if the next ten years bring a wave of money devaluation that has never happened before.
Central banks have been talking about the idea of issuing a digital currency, which would completely change the way money works today. By issuing a digital currency directly into a citizen’s account at the central bank, the financial institution would have all access to savers’ information and, more importantly, would be able to accelerate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by eliminating the channels that prevent higher inflation from happening: the banking channel and the backstop of credit demand. What has kept inflation from going up much more is that the way monetary policy is passed on is always slowed down by the demand for credit in the banking system. This has obviously led to a huge rise in the prices of financial assets and still caused prices to go through the roof when the growth in the money supply was used to pay for government spending and subsidies.
If central banks start issuing digital currencies, the level of purchasing power destruction of currencies seen in the past fifty years will be exceedingly small compared with what can occur with unbridled central bank control.
In such an environment, gold’s status as a reserve of value would be unequalled.
There are more reasons why a central bank might buy gold.
Central banks need gold because they may be preparing for an unprecedented period of monetary devastation.
The Financial Times claims that central banks are already suffering significant losses as a result of the falling value of the bonds they hold on their balance sheets. By the end of the second quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve had lost $720 billion while the Bank of England had lost £200 billion. The European Central Bank is currently having its finances reviewed, and it is predicted that it will also incur significant losses. The European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Australian central bank all “now face possible losses of more than $1 trillion altogether, as once-profitable bonds morph into liabilities,” according to Reuters.
If a central bank experiences a loss, it can fill the gap by using any available reserves from prior years or by requesting help from other central banks. Similar to a commercial bank, it may experience significant difficulties; nevertheless, a central bank has the option of turning to governments as a last resort. This implies that the hole will be paid for by taxpayers, and the costs are astronomical.
The wave of monetary destruction that could result from a new record in global debt, enormous losses in the central bank’s assets, and the issuance of digital currencies finds only one true safe haven with centuries of proven status as a reserve of value: Gold. This is because central banks are aware that governments are not cutting deficit spending.
These numbers highlight the enormous issue brought on by the recent overuse of quantitative easing. Because they were unaware of the reality of issuer solvency, central banks switched from purchasing low-risk assets at attractive prices to purchasing any sovereign bond at any price.
Why do central banks increase their gold purchases just as losses appear on their balance sheets? To increase their reserve level, lessen losses, and foresee how newly created digital currencies may affect inflation. Since buying European or North American sovereign bonds doesn’t lower the risk of losing money if inflation stays high, it is very likely that the only real option if to buy more gold.
The central banks of industrialized nations will make an effort to shrink their balance sheets in order to fight inflation, but they will also discover that the assets they own are continuing to depreciate in value. A central bank that is losing money cannot immediately expand its balance sheet or buy more sovereign bonds. A liquidity trap has been set. Quantitative easing and low interest rates are necessary for higher asset values, but further liquidity and financial restraint may prolong inflationary pressures, which would then increase pressure on asset prices.
The idea that printing money wouldn’t lead to inflation served as the foundation for the monetary mirage. The evidence to the contrary now demonstrates that central banks are faced with a serious challenge: they are unable to sustain multiple expansion and asset price inflation, lower consumer prices, and fund government deficit spending at the same time.
So, why do they buy gold? Because a new paradigm in policy will unavoidably emerge as a result of the disastrous economic and monetary effects of years of excessive easing, and neither our real earnings nor our deposit savings benefit from that. When given the choice between “sound money” and “financial repression,” governments have forced central banks to choose “financial repression.”
The only reason central banks buy gold is to protect their balance sheets from their own monetary destruction programs; they have no choice but to do so.
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
end
end
4. Other gold/silver commentaries
RUSSELL CLARK
Russell Clark (prior CEO of Horseman), is one smart cookie. Pay attention to his long term prognostications
He believes we are going to have wicked inflation which will propel gold
His major trade: long gold//short bond etf (TLT)
(TLT= bond ETF)
Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China’s Storm?
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 10:00 PM
By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack,
As I and many of my subscribers have noticed, many of the key commodity drivers of inflation have seeming rolled over.
European gas prices, Chinese pork prices, oil prices, US corn prices among others have weakened to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strangely, weak commodity prices should be disastrous for my key trade, long GLD short TLT, and yet strangely it has breached new cycle highs. Why is this?
The first thing that should be said is that commodity investing is hard. Surprises in short term demand and supply can drive huge moves in spot markets. A good example is pork prices. Pork is particularly big driver of Chinese inflation. Chinese and US pork prices have recently fallen significantly.
I have no idea why pork prices have fallen. The reopening of China would have made me think short term demand for pork would be higher, and hence prices would be rising. That they are falling, suggests maybe supply is robust. Confusing the picture is that Chinese corn price have not weakened, meaning that profitability for pig farmers has collapsed. All a bit confusing to be honest.
However, my core argument is that China has turned into a net food importer, and this should be putting upward pressure on food prices, as long as China does not devalue. The data on China being a net food importer remains compelling. European exports of meat to China remain strong.
Chinese pork prices can be greatly effected by swings in supply. However during the African Swine Flu crisis, beef consumption in China grew significantly.
China grows very little beef (very little pasture land).
Robust pricing for beef would point to food inflation in China still having an upward bias in my mind.
The key argument of China becoming a food importer seems intact.
The other end of inflation argument you could make is that energy price inflation is done. European gas prices have collapsed in recent months. In part driven by a very warm winter.
Even more so than Chinese pork prices, natural gas prices are very susceptible to short term fluctuations in demand and supply. To get around this I look at 5 year forward futures on US natural gas. The long dated futures have yet to show an inflection in pricing to indicate we are going back to a sustained bear market.
What I think is happening is that in early 2022, the US seemed very determined to counter inflation through what ever measure were necessary. We saw the sharpest increase in short term rates in a generation. And we also saw the biggest sell down of the strategic petroleum reserve. This sell down added about 600k barrels a day of supply to oil markets.
As argued previously, food inflation forces wage inflation. And China becoming a food importer is creating food inflation globally.
This means that central banks have to run aggressive interest rate policy, or inflation will return.
GLD/TLT reflects that. When TLT is weak, which happens when the market pricing in aggressive interest rate policy, GLD is also weak. But as soon as TLT reflects a slackening of central bank resolve, GLD shoots higher. My best guess we are a short term lull in inflation, making short TLT and other bond trades look attractive here.
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:COPPER
China’s opening is certainly having an effect on copper. Expect a tight market and thus higher copper prices
(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)
Extremely Tight Market Could Push Copper Prices To Record Highs
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 03:30 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Retail and professional investors expect copper to be the top-performing commodity this year, outperforming gold, corn, and crude oil, according to Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey published on Monday.
A total of 45% of retail investors and 36% of professional investors see copper as the best-performing commodity asset this year, compared to 26% of professional and 21% of retail investors who picked crude oil as most likely to be the top commodity performer in 2023.
Copper prices have strongly rebounded in recent weeks, thanks to the reopening in China, which is expected to spur additional demand, and to the long-term bullishness of the market for metals necessary for the energy transition.
Copper prices are set for a new record-high in 2023 amid an “extremely” tight market, Goldman Sachs said last month.
“The sequential increase in policy targets and commitments to green transition, alongside a minimal supply response so far… have resulted in earlier and larger open-ended deficit conditions that essentially are already here, not beginning at some point in the future,” Nicholas Snowdon, metals strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in December, as carried by Financial Review.
Moreover, mining and commodities giant Glencore said in an investor update last month that a huge shortage of copper is looming, reiterating warnings from other industry players and analysts that a supply crunch could slow the energy transition.
According to Glencore’s estimates, under the net-zero emissions pathway of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will be more than 50 million tons short of copper between 2022 and 2030.
“But increasing mine supply is challenging given heightened country and operational risks and the industry remains wary of multi-billion dollar investment decisions,” Glencore said.
In the latest reporting week to January 17, copper, one of the best-performing commodities this month, attracted more bullish positions, and the net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—jumped to a nine-month high, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.
end
URANIUM:
North Korea’s only Uranium mine caves in. I guess Kim will go to Russia and China to import Uranium into his country
Sorry I missed this a few days ago. Special thanks to son #4 for bringing this to my attention.
(Daily Mail)
North Korea’s nuke mine CAVES IN: Tunnel collapse at Kim Jong Un’s main source of uranium is so severe it can be seen on satellite photos
- The collapse of the Pyongsan mine was discovered in recent satellite images
- Satellite images captured the appearance of a depression near the entrance
- The ore can be refined into yellowcake and ultimately weapons-grade uranium
By MICHAEL HAVIS FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 03:38 EST, 19 January 2023 | UPDATED: 04:01 EST, 19 January 2023ents
The uranium mine that feeds North Korea‘s nukes has been rocked by a series of cave-ins, with the scale of the disaster visible from space.
Jacob Bogle, who has created a comprehensive map of the country from satellite photos, discovered the collapse in recent images of the Pyongsan mine.
The mine is the regime’s main source of uranium ore, which can be refined into yellowcake and ultimately weapons-grade uranium.
And it’s less than a kilometre away from the only operational plant in North Korea that can process the ore into yellowcake.
Jacob Bogle, who has created a comprehensive map of the country from satellite photos, discovered the collapse in recent images of the Pyongsan mine
The recent collapse at the Pyongsan mine appear to be progressive, moving towards the west in successive cave-ins from 2019 to 2021
Now the mine has been hit by disaster, with satellite photos capturing the sudden appearance of large depressions in the earth close to the mine entrance.
Mr Bogle said all the signs pointed to a collapse.
He said: ‘The Pyongsan mine is underground, so the only visible aspects of it should be tunnel entrances, surface facilities like crushing equipment, and piles of coal.
‘However, what has developed at the mine is a series of irregular pits with no associated activity – no trucks, no bucket excavators, and nothing to suggest they were created to facilitate mining.’
Two such pits, each more than 100 metres across, are clearly visible in satellite photos.
Mr Bogle continued: ‘This area of the mine was already weakened by a 100-metre-wide collapse that occurred at least two decades ago.
‘The recent collapses appear to be progressive, moving towards the west in successive cave-ins from 2019 to 2021.
‘This suggests that the mined out galleries had lost their structural support and water infiltration has weakened the site further, causing collapses that follow the paths of the galleries.’
+3
View gallery
The mine is the Kim Jong Un regime’s main source of uranium ore, which can be refined into yellowcake and ultimately weapons-grade uranium. Pictured: Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, January 1, 2023
The human cost of the cave-ins is unknown, but people are still working at the facility, evidence suggests.
With each new satellite photo, waste piles at the site have continued to grow, while new structures have been built above-ground.
Mr Bogle said: ‘The mine is still in use and the main tailings pile has grown each year for the last decade, indicating continuous operations.
‘And while the satellite imagery can’t tell us if the collapses have caused any injuries, there is an active mine shaft just 230 meters away from the area experiencing the cave-ins.
‘In fact, that shaft was refurbished and had additional structures built in recent years to facilitate greater activity.’
The Pyongsan mine is so big that – even after the recent collapses – the flow of uranium for Kim Jong-un’s nukes is likely to continue.
But Mr Bogle warned that these cave-ins could be just the beginning.
He said: ‘Mining is one of the most dangerous sectors in North Korea.
‘The country lacks modern equipment and isn’t known to use any advanced technologies to determine where mineral veins are, or to locate fissures in the rock that could pose safety risks.
+3
View gallery
The mine is less than a kilometre away from the only operational plant in North Korea that can process the ore into yellowcake
+3
View gallery
Satellite photos captured the sudden appearance of large depressions in the earth close to the mine entrance
‘Timber beams are the most common method used to support the ceilings, but without adequate planning or routine maintenance, the weight of the overlying rock can cause a collapse.’
He added: ‘Kim Jong-un announced in December that he wants to build ‘exponentially’ more nuclear weapons.
‘To do that, more ore has to be mined from Pyongsan.
‘Given the area’s track record, that can only mean even more accidents and cave-ins as greater and greater amounts of material is removed for processing.’
Pyongsan mine is 62 miles southeast of Pyongyang, and less than 30 miles from the South Korean border.
The Kim regime confessed it was extracting uranium from coal there during a visit by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in 1992.
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: XXX TO CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7881
SHANGHAI CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed UP 393.15 PTS OR 1.46%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.89 Euro FALLS TO 1.0847 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.409!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.26/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: XX-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.178%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.006%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.166…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.161//
3j Gold at $1930.90//silver at: 23.37 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 1/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.93//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 88 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.26/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .409% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9253– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0057 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.499% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.665 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,81…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.361 % DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Dip As Tech Rally Faces First Major Test With Microsoft Earnings
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 08:06 AM
The rally in US tech stocks and European markets paused on Tuesday as investors prepared for earnings updates from industry giants, including Microsoft and Texas Instruments. US equity futures fell after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posted its best two-day gain since November, as traders braced for the worst tech earnings slump since 2016. Europe’s region’s Stoxx 600 Index erased an early advance to fall into the red. At 7:30am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.2% lower and Nasdaq futures were down 0.3%; the tech-heavy benchmark is up8.5% in January, on pace for its best month since July even as profit estimates are declining and as Federal Reserve officials advocate for more policy tightening to combat inflation if at a slower, 25bps pace. The USD rose; Treasuries were unchanged while commodities were mixed with strength in natgas, nickel, oil and precious metals.
In pre-market trading, Alphabet shares fell slightly after a Bloomberg News report that the US Justice Department could file an antitrust lawsuit against Google as soon as Tuesday regarding the search giant’s dominance over the digital advertising market. Microsoft, which reports results today, was little changed. Yesterday the world’s largest software maker confirmed it is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, the owner of artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT. Advanced Micro Devices fell in pre-market trading, after Bernstein downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform, citing a worsening PC climate and “semi-destructive behavior” by rival Intel Corp. Here are the other notable pre-market movers:
- 3M forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2023; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate. Shares decline 4.9%.
- GE forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2023; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate. Shares gain 1.8%.
- Johnson & Johnson guided to stronger earnings for 2023 than analysts were expecting after a year in which the pharma division suffered because of waning demand for its unpopular Covid-19 shot. Shares rise 0.5%.
- Lyft shares gain 3.4% after KeyBanc upgrades the ride- hailing firm to overweight from sector weight, with broker saying data indicates that the firm is turning a corner, while cost-cutting could boost Ebitda.
- HighPeak Energy shares rise 15% after the oil producer’s board voted to initiate a process to evaluate strategic alternatives including a potential sale.
- Zions shares drop 2.7% after the bank’s total deposits fell short of Wall Street estimates, with analysts also disappointed by the firm’s forecast for net interest income which they said could put pressure on estimates amid a tough macroeconomic backdrop.
- Watch oil and gas stocks as Morgan Stanley says it’s increasingly selective in the sector as it continues to see a “mixed setup” for North American shares ahead of earnings. Upgrades Marathon Oil to overweight, and cuts APA and Ovintiv to equal-weight.
- Keep an eye on Target shares as Oppenheimer begins coverage at outperform, seeing potential for a “strong multi-year profit recovery” and opportunity for the discount retailer to capture market share.
- KeyBanc initiates coverage of Virgin Galactic Holdings at sector weight, saying the company could be highly profitable if it succeeds in ramping up its “next-generation” spaceship fleet, but that its performance hinges on execution.
- Amazon’price target and 2024 outlook cut at Telsey Advisory Group as the spending environment becomes more challenging and growth rates normalize after a couple of years of acceleration during Covid. Shares decline 0.3%.
- Cheesecake Factory downgraded at Raymond James to market perform from outperform reflecting concerns about the restaurant chain operator’s ability to recover pre-Covid margins. The brokerage also cut its rating on Dine Brands Global, the parent company of Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill + Bar and IHOP restaurants. Shares decline 1.8%.
- Cymabay Therapeutics gains 11% in premarket trading after the offering priced via Piper Sandler, Raymond James, Cantor Fitzgerald.
- Halliburton Co. boosted its dividend 33% as the world’s biggest provider of fracking services follows its oil-and-gas clients by expanding shareholder returns amid tight global supplies for crude. Shares gain 0.3%.
- HighPeak Energy (HPK) shares rise 17% after the oil producer’s board voted to initiate a process to evaluate strategic alternatives including a potential sale.
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) falls as much as 2.1% after Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman cut her recommendation on the athleticwear maker to underperform from market perform.
- PennantPark Floating (PFLT) drops 6.4% after an offering of 4.25m shares raised proceeds of $47.6 million, or $11.20 apiece, representing a discount to last close.
- Verizon Communications Inc.’s profit outlook trailed Wall Street estimates in a sign that consumer wireless business continues to weigh down performance as the company turns to costly phone giveaways to compete with its peers. Shares decline 2%.
In previewing this week’s barrage of tech earnings, JPMorgan writes that with MSFT earnings coming today, and the balance of the
FANG+ complex next week, “many are asking whether the US can reverse its underperformance. In the near-term, the answer seemingly lies with Tech earnings, which are expected to experience their largest decline since 2016, according to Bloomberg. Longer-term, a Fed pause may not be enough given the difference in growth rates of regions economies. The weakening USD has been a bigger benefit to international Equities than it has to create a domestic earnings tailwind. It may also be the case where the US is more vulnerable to margin compression than its international counterparts. Longer-term, if we do experience a Fed pivot this year, then would anticipate a strong, positive buying impulse for Tech.”
Wall Street has been slashing earnings estimates for months for the tech sector, which is projected to be the biggest drag on S&P 500 profits in the fourth quarter, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. The danger for investors, however, is that analysts still prove too optimistic, with demand for the industry’s products crumbling as the economy cools.
“We do not see much scope for markets to rally in the near term, especially given our outlook for continued pressure on corporate profit growth,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note echoing what is now a consensus view with identical sentiment shared by his peers at Goldman, JPM, and Bank of America. Haefele noted that UBS GWM’s S&P 500 target for both June and December, at 3,700 points and 4,000 points, were both below Monday’s 4,020 close. “In our view, the risk-reward trade-off remains unfavorable for broad US indexes, and we retain a least preferred stance on US equities and the technology sector,” he added.
European stocks also traded lower with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3%. Energy, miners and personal care are the worst performing sectors while insurance and media rise. The risk-off tone has benefited bonds with UK and German benchmarks rising and 10-year borrowing costs falling by 5bps and 2bps respectively. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Norwegian salmon farmers surge after a politician told newspaper Dagbladet the party is open to modifying a proposed resource tax to be levied on seafood producers in Norway
- Logitech shares edge up by as much as 2.4% as analysts highlighted better sell- through figures, market-share gains and solid 3Q cash flow from the computer-equipment maker
- Swatch shares rise 2.1% after analysts said China’s ending of its zero-Covid stance should mean a robust rebound in demand
- Topdanmark shares bounce as much as 4.9%, the most since February 2022, with a higher-than- expected special dividend the highlight of the Danish insurer’s results
- Marston’s shares gain as much as 8.7%, with analysts saying the trading update from the UK pub company shows some encouraging sales trends
- Senior Plc gains as much as 12% in early trading, after the company issued a trading update Monday showing a “strong finish” to the year, with profits ahead of expectations
- Ericsson shares fall as much as 2.9% after being cut to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs with the broker bearish on the telecoms-equipment group’s ongoing downside risks
- Associated British Foods shares slip as much as 1.7% after the food processing and retailing company posted a trading update noting a softer sugar segment offsetting strong performances elsewhere
- Direct Line shares fall as much as 3.2% as Citi switches to a new system to better value European insurance stocks, cutting the company to sell
- Dometic slides as much as 4.4% after Pareto Securities cut the Swedish recreational vehicle equipment maker to hold, with US demand in “free fall” in the short term
Meanwhile, European flash business activity data, while better than expected, highlighted ongoing weakness across the euro bloc and in Britain, while US figures later in the day will offer investors a snapshot of how the world’s largest economy is faring. Commenting on today’s PMI data, which came out as follows…
- Germany Jan. Flash Manufacturing PMI 47; Est 48
- Germany Jan. Flash Services PMI 50.4; Est 49.5
- France Jan. Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.8; Est 49.5
- France Jan. Flash Services PMI 49.2; Est 49.8
- UK Jan. Flash Services PMI 48; Est 49.5
- UK Jan. Flash Manufacturing PMI 46.7; Est 45.5
… Goldman writes that “the January flash PMIs showed significant improvements in future expectations and other forward-looking indicators like new orders also improved on the margin.” And some more details:
The Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 0.9pt to 50.2 in January, above consensus expectations. The increase in the composite index was broad-based across sectors, with the services sector surpassing the 50 threshold for the first time since July. Across countries, the improvement was led by the periphery and Germany, offset partially by a moderation in France. In the UK, the composite flash PMI decreased by 1.2pt to 47.8, well below consensus expectations. We see three main takeaways from today’s data. First, the upside surprise in the data today and the Euro area composite PMI surpassing the 50 threshold confirm our view that Euro area growth prospects have improved significantly recently. Second, cost inflation is moderating but the increase in output prices released today provided another reminder that underlying inflation remains sticky. Third, today’s data reinforce our expectation that the UK will underperform the Euro area even with falling energy prices.
PMI data aside, the upcoming wave of US corporate earnings — from tech giants such as Microsoft Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. as well as industrials such as GE — is likely to dominate attention.
“It’s all about earnings,” said Peter Kinsella, head of FX strategy at asset manager UBP. “Given that equities are trading at elevated levels, any earnings disappointment would justify a shift lower in stocks.” Kinsella said there was scope for bonds to rally and reckons that the dollar, already down about 1.7% this year against a basket of rivals, has likely seen its peak as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The US central bank bank is expected to cut rates by a smaller 25 basis points at a Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting.
“The market is saying inflation is done and dusted, which justifies a turn in tone from the Fed,” Kinsella added. “Overall I am off the view we saw the multi-year dollar peak last year.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks extended their recent rise in holiday thinned trading, as investors looked beyond expected near-term earnings weakness and rising US interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%, poised for a third straight day of gains, driven by industrial and technology shares. Japan led the advance for a second session, with China and much of the region still shut for Lunar New Year.
“With job cuts proceeding apace, the markets likely continue to ignore short-term earnings and look into next year,” a bullish scenario, analyst Mark Chadwick wrote in a note on Smartkarma. Growth stocks also benefit with “Fed hike risks out of the headlines and consensus now around peak rates at 5%.” Major Asian tech stocks reporting results this week include South Korean EV battery maker LG Energy Solution and Japanese robot maker Fanuc. In addition to the rebound in global peers, local shares have also gained on optimism over China’s reopening and easing corporate crackdowns
Japanese stocks rose Tuesday, gaining traction after a tech rally drove gains in US peers and amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve will be less hawkish than previously expected. The Topix Index rose 1.4% to 1,972.92 at the market’s close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 1.5% to 27,299.19. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s advance, increasing 1.9%. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Toyota Motor were other notable gainers. Among 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,713 rose, 369 fell and 79 were unchanged. “The rise in US stocks is positive to Japanese equities, especially with a fairly strong sentiment that US interest rate hikes might come to an end soon,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “In Japan, exporters are rebounding as concerns over yen’s appreciation cool and inbound demand continues to contribute to the rally.”
Australian stocks rose for a fifth session; the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to close at 7,490.40, led by gains in mining and real estate shares. The benchmark closed at the highest since April 21, extending gains for fifth session. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 11,932.92
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung to a gain in European session and the greenback rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and the Swedish krona. The pound fell to the bottom of the G-10 pile after PMI data highlighted the looming risk of a recession in the UK economy. Readings from France and Germany were more mixed but enough to prompt the euro to reverse an earlier advance. Traders position for a series of US data releases and the next meetings by the world’s major central banks, and the dollar meets topside demand through options.
- The euro climbed toward $1.09 only to reverse its gain after Germany’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell. Germany’s composite PMI however came in better than forecast, at 49.7, and the composite for the whole euro zone entered expansionary territory after rising to 50.2, versus expected 49.8. Separately, German February GfK consumer confidence improved to -33.9 versus estimate -33.3
- The pound fell against all of its G-10 peers and gilts outperformed Treasuries and bunds after S&P Global’s UK PMI fell to 47.8 in January from 49 the month before, well below economists’ forecasts for little change
- The yen advanced for the first time in three days and bonds fell. Investors were waiting for the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from its January meeting and Tokyo inflation data later this week to see if a further policy change was in store
- Australian sovereign bonds pared opening losses as markets parsed improved National Australia Bank business confidence, instead focusing on how components to business conditions softened. Australian and New Zealand dollars swung to losses in European trading
In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer with yields shedding 1-3bps across the curve, supported by a wider rally in gilts after lower-than-estimated UK PMI services gauge. The 10Y TSY is around 3.50%, richer by 1bp vs Monday’s close while lagging gilts by 2bp in the sector. The risk-off tone has benefited bonds with UK and German benchmarks rising and 10-year borrowing costs falling by 5bps and 2bps respectively. In core European rates gilts outperform in bull-steepening move where front-end and belly yields are richer by 5bp on the day. The US auction cycle begins at 1pm with $42b 2-year note sale, ahead of $43b 5- year and $35b 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. Focal points of US session also include January PMIs, along with 2-year note auction, first of this week’s three coupon sales.
In commodities, crude futures are little changed while spot gold rises 0.3% to trade near $1,938/oz.
FBI said two hacker groups associated with North Korea were behind the USD 100mln theft from US crypto firm Harmony Horizon Bridge last June, according to Reuters.
Looking to the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the January flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, along with the ECB’s Knot and Vujcic. Earnings releases include Microsoft, General Electric, Danaher, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific and Verizon Communications.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,031.75
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 453.95
- MXAP up 0.6% to 168.43
- MXAPJ little changed at 551.68
- Nikkei up 1.5% to 27,299.19
- Topix up 1.4% to 1,972.92
- Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 22,044.65
- Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,264.81
- Sensex up 0.1% to 61,016.22
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,490.40
- Kospi up 0.6% to 2,395.26
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
- Euro little changed at $1.0867
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $87.73/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,935.75
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.11% to 102.03
Top Overnight News From Bloomberg
- The UK government sank deeper into debt in December as rising debt-interest payments and the cost of insulating consumers and businesses from the energy-price shock strained the public finances. The budget deficit stood at £27.4 billion ($34 billion), a record for the month and almost triple the £10.7 billion shortfall a year earlier
- Some UK homes are requested to curb power demand on Tuesday evening as the nation’s grid struggles for a second day to plug the gap left by a drop in wind generation
- The immense wealth coming from Norway’s gas and oil fields is underpinning a new refrain among market experts: it’s time for a big rebound in the krone
A more detailed summary of overnight events courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were positive and took impetus from the tech rally on Wall Street but with trade quiet amid a lack of fresh catalysts and as many participants in the region remained absent with markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam all closed for the holiday. ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in the real estate, tech and mining industries albeit with gains capped after a mixed NAB business survey and soft PMI data which showed a contraction in the manufacturing and services. Nikkei 225 continued its outperformance and climbed above the 27,000 level with the index unaffected by the latest preliminary PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI contracted for the 3rd consecutive month although Services and Composite PMIs improved with the latter back in expansionary territory, while reports also noted that Japan is considering early May for its planned downgrade of COVID policy.
Top Asian News
- US President Biden’s Administration reportedly confronted China’s government with evidence that suggested some China SOEs may be providing assistance to Russia’s war effort, according to Bloomberg.
- The first three days of the Chinese Spring Festival holidays saw bookings for domestic hotel and scenic spots increase by 56% and 79% Y/Y, according to data by online travel agency Tongcheng Travel cited by these Global Times; Domestic air ticket bookings rose by 30%, China’s passenger trips via railway, road, waterway and plane amounted 23.53 million on Monday, up 67.7% Y/Y.
- BoJ Governor Kuroda says markets moves are becoming more stable, via Reuters.
European bourses are a touch softer overall, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, and relatively unreactive to better-than-expected EZ Flash PMIs. Albeit, the FTSE 100 -0.4% is lagging slightly following its own PMIs, which point to a particularly grim start to the UK economy for 2023. Stateside, futures are a touch softer but contained overall, ES -0.2% but above 4k, ahead of data points and key earnings including MSFT.
Top European News
- Euro-Area Business Activity Unexpectedly Grows at Start of Year
- Britain and the EU are unlikely to make major changes to the underlying Brexit deal, according to a report by the academic body UK in a Changing Europe cited by Reuters.
- ECB’s Nagel said ECB is not done on far too high inflation, according to L’Express; additionally, Villeroy said the ECB probably will reach peak rates by summer.
- Judge Removed From HSBC Dispute Over Loan to Hot Yoga Studio
- UK Homes Asked to Curb Power for Second Day as Wind Fades
- Ukraine Latest: Stoltenberg Confident of Solution on Tanks Soon
Notable data
- EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.3); “The region is by no means out of the woods yet, however, as demand continues to fall – merely dropping at a reduced rate – and an upturn in the rate of inflation of selling prices for both goods and services will add encouragement to the hawks to push for further monetary policy tightening. The case for higher interest rates is fuelled further by the upturn in employment growth recorded during the month and signs of higher wages driving the latest upturn in price pressures.”
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 47.8); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 49.8)
- German S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 49.7 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.0); Click here for more detail.
- German S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 47.0 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 47.1); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.2)
- UK Flash Composite PMI (Jan) 47.8 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 49.0): “Jobs also continued to be lost as firms tightened their belts in the face of these headwinds, though many other firms reported being constrained by an ongoing lack of available labour.”
- UK Flash Services PMI (Jan) 48.0 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.9); Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 vs. Exp. 45.5 (Prev. 45.3)
- German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Feb) -33.9 vs. Exp. -33.0 (Prev. -37.8, Rev. -37.6)
FX
- The USD has benefitted from a PMI-induced decline in Sterling, with the DXY lifted to a 102.17 peak and Cable testing 1.23 to the downside.
- In contrast, the EUR was underpinned by Monday’s late-doors ECB speak though EUR/USD stalled on a test of 1.09 before contrasting EZ/regional PMIs.
- JPY is the marked outperformer having been below 130.00 against the USD, though it has given back some of this recovery momentum in face of the above USD action.
- CAD is contained pre-BoC with the Antipodeans equally rangebound ahead of inflation data.
- Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said President Lula and Argentina’s President Fernandez requested the creation of a clearing house with a common currency to settle accounts, but added it has no name or deadline and their idea does not seek monetary unification as is the case with the Euro, according to Reuters.
Fixed Income
- EGBs perhaps gleaned initial support on technical factors, though subsequent action was driven by a marked spike in Gilts to near 105.00.
- Much of the UK move was driven by the region’s PMI release though subsequent bearish fiscal developments served as a fleeting headwind for Gilts and, to a lesser extent, peers more broadly with Bunds continuing to slip post-PMIs.
- USTs are a touch firmer given the above action and ahead of its own data release and 2yr issuance.
- UK sells GBP 6bln 2053 Gilt via syndication, order book closed in excess of GBP 65bln, according to a bookrunner.
Commodities
- The crude benchmarks are little changed/slightly softer as a GBP-induced lift to the USD weighs on the complex.
- However, WTI and Brent remain underpinned overall by the broader improving demand picture amid the Lunar New Year holiday.
- US is weighing the cancellation of the next SPR sale, according to sources cited by Energy Intel.
- Dubai sets the official crude differential to DME Oman for April at a USD 0.20/bbl discount.
- Norwegian Energy Ministry plans a 2023 APA oil and gas licensing round, adding acreage to the Norwegian and Barents sea.
- 5.4 magnitude earthquake strikes Nepal, via EMSC.
- Spot gold has slipped from its intraday peak given USD action, though the yellow metal continues to glean support from the slightly softer equity tone while LME Copper has slipped from best but remains in proximity to USD 9.5k/T.
Geopolitics
- Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov said the new army plan considers threats such as Finland and Sweden’s desire to join NATO, and the use of Ukraine as a tool of hybrid war against Russia, according to TASS.
- Polish Defence Minister said Germany has now received Poland’s official request to re-export Leopard tanks to Ukraine; following the German Defence Minister saying there is no new position on the Leopard tanks.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -17.1, revised -12.8
- 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 46.4, prior 45.0
- 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 45.0, prior 44.7
- 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 46.0, prior 46.2
- 10:00: Jan. Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior 1
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Risk assets got the week off to a very strong start yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+1.19%) at a 7-week high as investors awaited a raft of earnings reports over the coming days. However, just as equities were surging to fresh highs for 2023, there were also growing concerns about a potential US recession, with the Conference Board’s leading index for December falling by a larger-than-expected -1.0% (vs. -0.7% expected). So that’s a further negative signal after last week’s downbeat releases on retail sales and industrial production, and one that will increase the focus on today’s flash PMIs for January.
In many respects, this divergence between more positive markets and weak economic data echoes what Jim and I published last week in our “Sweet Spot” note (link here). We pointed out how it was consistent to be tactically positive on risk assets whilst maintaining our (very) bearish view for H2 2023. In essence, since October markets have been less concerned about inflation and where rates might need to go, with terminal pricing for the Fed funds remaining steady around the 5% mark for a few months now. But we also haven’t reached the US recession that we’re forecasting for H2, which is giving markets scope to rally in the meantime. Indeed, we show in the piece this is also consistent with the historic pattern, with the S&P 500 only tending to turn significantly lower a few weeks before the recession on average.
When it came to that release from the Conference Board, the -1.0% decline in December marked the 10th successive monthly decline for the leading index. Furthermore, it means that it’s now down -6.0% on a year-on-year basis, the most since June 2020. Bear in mind that on every other occasion the index has been down by that amount in a single year, the US economy has either been in a recession or was just emerging from one. So clearly not a positive sign by historic standards.
For the time being at least, investors put aside their caution on a recession, with equities seeing a strong rally on both sides of the Atlantic. Tech stocks led the advance, which continues their very strong performance in January so far. The NASDAQ was up +2.01%, thus bringing its YTD gains to +8.58%. Meanwhile the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks saw even larger gains, with a +4.03% advance that brought its own YTD performance to +14.80%, and puts it on track for its best monthly performance since August 2020. After the close there was a Bloomberg report that the US Justice Department was set to sue Google’s parent company Alphabet as soon as today about their digital ad dominance. Alphabet shares were down -0.9% in after-market trading, but futures for the NASDAQ 100 more broadly saw little reaction, and are only down -0.02% this morning. Elsewhere, the cyclical sectors outperformed in line with the risk-on tone for the day, but there was a broader underperformance in Europe, with the STOXX 600 only up +0.52%.
Whilst equities were buoyant, sovereign bonds lost ground amidst the risk-off tone, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +3.1bps yesterday to 3.51%, followed up by a +0.7bps move overnight to 3.52% as we go to print. That was echoed in Europe too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.9bps), OATs (+3.2bps) and BTPs (+3.4bps) seeing similar rises of their own. Those moves came as there was some pushback from ECB speakers about the idea of slowing their rate hikes down from 50bps after the February meeting, with Slovakia’s Kazimir saying yesterday that “we need to deliver two more 50 basis-point moves”. After the close, we also heard from President Lagarde, who said that “We will stay the course to ensure the timely return of inflation to our target”.
Looking forward, the main highlight today will be the flash PMIs for January, since they’ll provide an initial steer on how the global economy is performing into 2023. Last month both the US and the Eurozone composite PMIs were in contractionary territory, thus adding to fears about a potential recession. However, the year so far has brought some relatively good news, with European natural gas currently around its lowest in over a year, alongside clear signs that consumer confidence has begun to recover. When it comes to the PMIs, our European economists think the positive impact of easing uncertainty is more likely to come in services than manufacturing.
Overnight, we’ve already had some initial PMI numbers from Japan and Australia, which have added to that picture that the global economy might be faring worse than feared. Starting with Japan, the composite PMI moved back into expansionary territory at 50.8, following two months beneath the 50 mark. The manufacturing PMI did remain in contractionary territory at 48.9, but services saw a stronger move higher to 52.4. Meanwhile in Australia, there was also a rise in the composite PMI overnight to 48.2 (vs. 47.5 previously), so still in contractionary territory but a change from three consecutive declines in the PMI.
Those more positive PMI releases along with the US equity rally has boosted sentiment in Asian markets this morning, with the Nikkei (+1.52%) as well as the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.44%) both trading in positive territory. However, several major markets across the region remained closed for the Lunar New year holiday. Elsewhere, equity futures suggest that US stocks will hold onto yesterday’s gains, with those on the S&P 500 basically stable at +0.02%.
Otherwise yesterday, there was a fair amount of optimism across different asset classes. For instance, Brent crude oil closed above $88/bbl for the first time in 2023 (+0.64% yesterday), which is a decent jump after trading beneath $78/bbl at the lows around the start of the month. Elsewhere, Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions showed they were at their most accommodative levels since last February. And we also saw the Euro move above $1.09 in trading for the first time since April, before closing back at $1.087.
Finally in other data yesterday, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in January rose to -20.9 (vs. -20.0 expected). That was beneath expectations, but still the strongest that reading has been since last February.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the January flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, along with the ECB’s Knot and Vujcic. Earnings releases include Microsoft, General Electric, Danaher, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific and Verizon Communications.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities slightly softer & USD bid post-PMIs ahead of US data and 2yr supply – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 06:30 AM
- European bourses are a touch softer overall, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, and relatively unreactive to better-than-expected EZ Flash PMIs.
- Stateside, futures are posting similar price action with the ES -0.2% but above 4k, ahead of data points and key earnings including MSFT.
- The USD has benefitted from a PMI-induced decline in Sterling while JPY is the marked outperformer but has eased from best levels.
- EGBs were initially bolstered by technical factors and marked Gilt outperformance, however Bunds have since faded post-PMIs and bearish UK syndication.
- Crude benchmarks are little changed/slightly softer having recovered from fleeting USD-induced pressure.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs. Earnings from Microsoft, Verizon, JNJ & General Electric, Supply from the US. Holiday in China & Hong Kong.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are a touch softer overall, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, and relatively unreactive to better-than-expected EZ Flash PMIs.
- Albeit, the FTSE 100 -0.4% is lagging slightly following its own PMIs, which point to a particularly grim start to the UK economy for 2023.
- Stateside, futures are a touch softer but contained overall, ES -0.2% but above 4k, ahead of data points and key earnings including MSFT.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- The USD has benefitted from a PMI-induced decline in Sterling, with the DXY lifted to a 102.17 peak and Cable testing 1.23 to the downside.
- In contrast, the EUR was underpinned by Monday’s late-doors ECB speak though EUR/USD stalled on a test of 1.09 before contrasting EZ/regional PMIs.
- JPY is the marked outperformer having been below 130.00 against the USD, though it has given back some of this recovery momentum in face of the above USD action.
- CAD is contained pre-BoC with the Antipodeans equally rangebound ahead of inflation data.
- Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said President Lula and Argentina’s President Fernandez requested the creation of a clearing house with a common currency to settle accounts, but added it has no name or deadline and their idea does not seek monetary unification as is the case with the Euro, according to Reuters.
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- EGBs perhaps gleaned initial support on technical factors, though subsequent action was driven by a marked spike in Gilts to near 105.00.
- Much of the UK move was driven by the region’s PMI release though subsequent bearish fiscal developments served as a fleeting headwind for Gilts and, to a lesser extent, peers more broadly with Bunds continuing to slip post-PMIs.
- USTs are a touch firmer given the above action and ahead of its own data release and 2yr issuance.
- UK sells GBP 6bln 2053 Gilt via syndication, order book closed in excess of GBP 65bln, according to a bookrunner.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- The crude benchmarks are little changed/slightly softer as a GBP-induced lift to the USD weighs on the complex.
- However, WTI and Brent remain underpinned overall by the broader improving demand picture amid the Lunar New Year holiday.
- US is weighing the cancellation of the next SPR sale, according to sources cited by Energy Intel.
- Dubai sets the official crude differential to DME Oman for April at a USD 0.20/bbl discount.
- Norwegian Energy Ministry plans a 2023 APA oil and gas licensing round, adding acreage to the Norwegian and Barents sea.
- 5.4 magnitude earthquake strikes Nepal, via EMSC.
- Spot gold has slipped from its intraday peak given USD action, though the yellow metal continues to glean support from the slightly softer equity tone while LME Copper has slipped from best but remains in proximity to USD 9.5k/T.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE DATA
- EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.3); Click here for more detail.
- “The region is by no means out of the woods yet, however, as demand continues to fall – merely dropping at a reduced rate – and an upturn in the rate of inflation of selling prices for both goods and services will add encouragement to the hawks to push for further monetary policy tightening. The case for higher interest rates is fuelled further by the upturn in employment growth recorded during the month and signs of higher wages driving the latest upturn in price pressures.”
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 47.8); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 49.8)
- German S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Jan) 49.7 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.0); Click here for more detail.
- German S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jan) 47.0 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 47.1); Services Flash PMI (Jan) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.2)
- UK Flash Composite PMI (Jan) 47.8 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 49.0); Click here for more detail.
- “Jobs also continued to be lost as firms tightened their belts in the face of these headwinds, though many other firms reported being constrained by an ongoing lack of available labour.”
- UK Flash Services PMI (Jan) 48.0 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.9); Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 vs. Exp. 45.5 (Prev. 45.3)
- German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Feb) -33.9 vs. Exp. -33.0 (Prev. -37.8, Rev. -37.6)
- UK PSNB, GBP (Dec) 26.581B GB (Prev. 21.196B GB, Rev. 18.819B GB); Ex Banks GBP (Dec) 27.402B GB vs. Exp. 17.75B GB (Prev. 22.017B GB, Rev. 19.640B GB)
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Britain and the EU are unlikely to make major changes to the underlying Brexit deal, according to a report by the academic body UK in a Changing Europe cited by Reuters.
- ECB’s Nagel said ECB is not done on far too high inflation, according to L’Express; additionally, Villeroy said the ECB probably will reach peak rates by summer.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- USTR office said US officials continue to engage with Mexican counterparts at the highest levels to address grave concerns with Mexico’s biotechnology policies, while US officials made it clear it will consider all options including formal steps to enforce its rights under the USMCA if the issue is not resolved.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov said the new army plan considers threats such as Finland and Sweden’s desire to join NATO, and the use of Ukraine as a tool of hybrid war against Russia, according to TASS.
- Polish Defence Minister said Germany has now received Poland’s official request to re-export Leopard tanks to Ukraine; following the German Defence Minister saying there is no new position on the Leopard tanks.
CRYPTO
- FBI said two hacker groups associated with North Korea were behind the USD 100mln theft from US crypto firm Harmony Horizon Bridge last June, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were positive and took impetus from the tech rally on Wall Street but with trade quiet amid a lack of fresh catalysts and as many participants in the region remained absent with markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam all closed for the holiday.
- ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in the real estate, tech and mining industries albeit with gains capped after a mixed NAB business survey and soft PMI data which showed a contraction in the manufacturing and services.
- Nikkei 225 continued its outperformance and climbed above the 27,000 level with the index unaffected by the latest preliminary PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI contracted for the 3rd consecutive month although Services and Composite PMIs improved with the latter back in expansionary territory, while reports also noted that Japan is considering early May for its planned downgrade of COVID policy.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US President Biden’s Administration reportedly confronted China’s government with evidence that suggested some China SOEs may be providing assistance to Russia’s war effort, according to Bloomberg.
- The first three days of the Chinese Spring Festival holidays saw bookings for domestic hotel and scenic spots increase by 56% and 79% Y/Y, according to data by online travel agency Tongcheng Travel cited by these Global Times; Domestic air ticket bookings rose by 30%, China’s passenger trips via railway, road, waterway and plane amounted 23.53 million on Monday, up 67.7% Y/Y.
- BoJ Governor Kuroda says markets moves are becoming more stable, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Jan P) 48.9 (Prev. 48.9); Services PMI (Jan P) 52.4 (Prev. 51.1)
- Japanese Composite PMI (Jan P) 50.8 (Prev. 49.7)
- Australian Manufacturing PMI (Jan P) 49.8 (Prev. 50.2); Services PMI (Jan P) 48.3 (Prev. 47.3)
- Australian Composite PMI (Jan P) 48.2 (Prev. 47.5)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Dec) -1 (Prev. -4); Conditions (Dec) 12 (Prev. 20)
1.c TUESDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 393.15 PTS OR 1.86% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.40% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7881// /Oil DOWN TO 81.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.11 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
Japan has been having a demographic problem for many years. Now they are starting to worry! Why? their large debt is covered by fewer people
It is stated that by 2045 Japan’s population will fall to 95 million from today;s 125 million\
(zerohedge)
“Now Or Never”: Japan PM Warns Of Dire Consequences Over Plummeting Birth Rate
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 04:15 AM
The Prime Minister of Japan says the country is in a precarious position as a society over its plummeting birth rate.
“Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society,” said Fumio Kishida, saying that the situation was a case of “now or never.“
“Focusing attention on policies regarding children and child-rearing is an issue that cannot wait and cannot be postponed,” he added.
The island nation currently has a population of 125 million, and had just 800,000 births last year. For comparison, that figure was north of 2 million in the 1970s.
And while other Asian nations have experienced similar slowing birth rates, Japan’s issue is particularly acute as life expectancy has risen at the same time – meaning there are a larger of older people, with a declining pool of working-age people to support them.
In fact, Japan has the world’s 2nd highest percentage of people over the age of 65, after the tiny state of Monaco, the BBC reports, citing data from the World Bank.
The comments come as Kishida’s cabinet approval rating has dropped another 2.7% from last month to 26.5% – the lowest since he took office in Oct. 2021, according to Jiji, citing its latest poll conducted Jan. 13-16. The poll also found that just 40.9% of people approve of the government’s response to coronavirus, while 31.2% say they disapproved.
Kishida added that eventually he wants the Japanese government to double its spending on child-related programs, and wants a new government agency set up by April to focus on the issue. That said, previous strategies to lift the birth rate have been met with limited success.
Falling birth rates are driven by a range of factors, including rising living costs, more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.
…By 2050, it could lose a fifth of its current population.
Yet its hostility to immigration has not wavered. Only about 3% of Japan’s population is foreign-born, compared to 15% in the UK. In Europe and America, right-wing movements point to it as a shining example of racial purity and social harmony. -BBC
Meanwhile, real wages in Japan haven’t grown in 30 years, while incomes in South Korea and Taiwan have caught up and overtaken the country.
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/COVID
As we outlined before: China states that now over 80% of its population is infected with COVID. They may reach herd immunity: it depends on what the vaccination did to many of the Chinese
(zerohedge)
China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 11:00 PM
Remember when rational voices asked why, instead of locking down its economy every time there was even a small breakout of the Wu-flu, China (or the US for that matter) didn’t simply do the right thing and allow covid to sweep through the land, creating a buffer of natural immunity and burn out on its own? Well, after bizarrely resisting the inevitable (one day we hope to have an answer why Xi Jinping pushed so hard for the now defunct Covid-zero policy) for so long, that’s precisely what China has now down and on Saturday, a prominent government scientist said that the possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have now been infected, reaching the herd immunity threshold.
While the mass movement of people during the ongoing Lunar New Year holiday period may spread the pandemic, boosting infections in some areas, a second COVID wave is unlikely in the near term, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on the Weibo social media platform, according to Reuters.
Hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling across the country for holiday reunions that had been suspended under recently eased COVID curbs, raising fears of fresh outbreaks in rural areas less equipped to manage large outbreaks.
To ease widespread if groundless fears which had been mercilessly stoked by Beijing for the past three years, a National Health Commission official also addressed the nation on Thursday saying that China has passed the peak of COVID patients in fever clinics, emergency rooms and with critical conditions.
According to “government data”, which in China means propaganda, nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospital as of Jan. 12, roughly a month after China abruptly dismantled its zero-COVID policy. But some experts said that figure probably vastly undercounts the full impact, as it excludes those who die at home, and because many doctors have said they are discouraged from citing COVID as a cause of death.
While over a billion Chinese having survived covid is good news, it’s terrible news for those pharma companies that held the world hostage for the past three years: after all, just how will Pfizer and Moderna be able to afford more yachts if they can’t sell their constantly changing, taxpayer-funded mRNA cocktail to the world’s (now 2nd) largest population. As for the world’s most populous country, India, it knew what was up more than a year ago when in Sept 2021 its government said it would not buy any shots from Pfizer and Moderna, thus depriving its population of countless complications from myocarditis and pericarditis.
END
CHINA/RUSSIA
Not good; Russian warship armed with hypersonic missiles to join China in the South Africa hosted drills
(zerohedge)
Russian Warship Armed With Hypersonic Missiles To Join China In South Africa-Hosted Drills
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 09:00 AM
The Russian navy is set to participate alongside the Chinese and South African navies in exercises set for February off South Africa, Russia’s state TASS has announced.
Importantly, the Russian frigate named ‘Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov’ is armed with hypersonic cruise missiles, after it entered deployment in the Atlantic Ocean three weeks ago.The frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov, via TASS
“‘Admiral Gorshkov’ … will go to the logistic support point in Syria’s Tartus, and then take part in joint naval exercises with the Chinese and South African navies,” TASS reported.
The South African National Defense Force has also confirmed the drills, which will run February 17-26 and be located off the port cities Durban and Richards Bay, describing that the exercise aims “to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China.”
The South African military also pointed out it will be the second joint drills involving the three countries, after a 2019 exercise.
Interestingly, the timing of the new drills will correspond with the one year anniversary of Russia’s Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine. Given that it remains a US ally, South Africa is coming under heavy criticism for hosting the drills, and for also allowing Russian warships at its ports.
South Africa had been among the some three dozen countries to abstain from a UN vote last year to condemn Russia’s annexation over the four eastern Ukrainian territories.
The New York Times reported of the US reaction as follows:
The United States, which has fostered a decades-long strategic partnership with South Africa, immediately expressed disapproval. David Feldmann, a spokesman for the United States Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa, said in a statement, “We note with concern” the plan by South Africa to move ahead with the joint exercises “even as Moscow continues its brutal and unlawful invasion of Ukraine.”
“We encourage South Africa to cooperate militarily with fellow democracies that share our mutual commitment to human rights and the rule of law.” Feldmann said further.
The NY Times further notes on the significance of South Africa’s defiant and independent stance: “The naval drill is a show of diplomatic independence for South Africa, analysts said.” And further, “South Africa is part of an alliance with Brazil, Russia, India and China — known by the acronym BRICS — and this naval exercise reasserts South Africa’s position that it will not allow the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to dictate its diplomatic relations.”
.
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
GERMANY/UKRAINE//USA/WEST/RUSSIA
Background stuff from the weekend….
ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany’s Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of “Global Catastrophe”
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 07:40 PM
A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we’re keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above…
The start of this week saw no less than four top level Russian officials warn of impending “global catastrophe” if the West keeps ramping up heavier arms to Ukraine, now as the decision of Germany to sign off on sending its Leopard II tanks looms.
State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, asserted in fresh remarks that NATO providing more weapons to Ukraine risks “global tragedy that would destroy” Western countries. “Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said. “If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons.”
And one can read further ultra dire warnings from Moscow’s point of view… specifically from Lavrov, Peskov, and Medvedev… all statements issued on Monday. The red line is being laid out quite brightly.
As for whether these escalatory scenarios will come to pass, with Russia and the West continuing to slide toward direct military confrontation, the question of whether or not Germany resists the growing pressure from allies for it to lead the way on sending its Leopard 2 main battle tanks looms. Can Berlin resist? Will Kremlin warnings be heeded by Berlin? And for how long? Despite a growing political rift both within the Scholz government among NATO allies more broadly, it’s not looking good. Germany has already bowed to pressure early in the conflict, given it walked away from its historic neutrality. The outcome to the tank question is likely to be decided by month’s end.
To gain a sense of the gloomy, apocalyptic outlook from Moscow on a looming war with NATO and the future course of the Ukraine conflict, see the above weekend Russian state TV segment with a panel of officials moderated by editor-in-chief of RT, Margarita Simonyan. Very serious talk indeed.
* * *
Below are global developments we are closely following this week…
Russia-Ukraine
- Poland ramping up pressure on Berlin to send German tanks to Ukraine: DW
- Warns Germany of “international isolation”… could send without approval?: DW
- Broader NATO pressure (and division) mounts over tank issue: AW
- State Duma official says “global catastrophe” coming due to ramped up Western arms: RTRS
- German Intelligence: Ukraine losing hundreds of soldiers daily: AW
- Russia touts gains around Bakhmut, smashes Ukrainian lines with artillery: TASS
- US media cites anon officials to claim spate of mail bomb attacks at embassies in Europe the work of Russian intelligence: NYT
- The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun: MofA
- Former PM Boris Johnson makes yet another visit to Kiev: RTRS
- NATO Baltic members Estonia & Lithuania boot Russian ambassadors, downgrade relations: RTRS
- Very dark Russian state TV segment predicts worst-case spiral: Video
- Norway holding Wagner deserter, will not deport to Russia: DW
- Pentagon extends airborne troop deployment in southeast Romania: AW
China-Asia
- US National Guard training Taiwan troops in expanded program: Nikkei
- GOP House Speaker McCarthy planning Taiwan visit: PN
- Will China view it differently than Pelosi’s visit, given he’s in ‘opposition’? SCMP
- Germany eyes ‘China lite’ future that is less dependent: Nikkei
- China will join Russia and South Africa for February naval drills: SCMP
- Beijing issues another veiled warning over Taiwan: VOA
- Yellen in Africa talks China threat: FT
- China’s biggest oil trading firm goes on a buying spree: OP
Middle East/World
- Pressure on US occupation in Syria ramping up with drone attacks: Hill
- Lebanese pound crashes to new low of 50,000 against the dollar: NA
- Hardline Israeli govt risks triggering another Gaza flare-up: NA
- Soaring inflation in Egypt… on the brink of another uprising? MEE
- Israel-Saudi normalization efforts off to rocky start: JPost
- 130,000 Israelis protest govt’s anti-democratic reforms: Haaretz
- Pentagon can’t account for $220BN of gear given to contractors: Reason
- Abraham Accords not so popular on ‘Arab street’: RS
- Saudi goods allowed in Syria after 11 years of trade ban: MEE
- Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support: BBC
- South Africa likely to use China and Russia as “bargaining chips” in its dealings with US: SCMP
Energy
- Massive blackout in Pakistan impacts some 200 million people: BBC
- UK’s National Grid to pay people to use less power as cold snap bites: RTRS
- Musk agrees with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that it will take 50 years to transition to green energy: FOX
- Italy to wean itself off Russian gas within two years: OP
- US energy chief says Biden would veto House Republican bill on oil reserve: RTRS
- Oil market braces for fresh turmoil as EU prepares to cut off Russian diesel: FT
end.
GERMANY/UKRAINE
As we have pointed out to you, German intelligence is alarmed at Ukraine losing hundreds of soldiers every day
(Anzalone/Antiwar.com)
German Intelligence “Alarmed” Ukraine Losing Hundreds Of Soldiers Every Day
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,
The German foreign intelligence service assesses that Kiev is losing a “three-digit number” of soldiers daily, according to a report in Der Spiegel. Berlin informed politicians of the assessment during a secret meeting this week.
Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is “alarmed” by the high number of losses Ukraine is suffering. The report says Berlin believes Ukraine was losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day during the battle of Bakhmut with Russian forces. The BND informed German politicians of the high number of injured and killed Ukrainian forces during a covert Bundestag meeting last week.Ukrainian soldiers prepare barricades in Bakhmut, via AP.
The BND believes the Ukrainian casualties will have severe consequences during future battles. The German intelligence service also believes that Russia is suffering high casualties and using its soldiers as “cannon fodder.”
Reuters reported officials in Washington believe Kiev spent significant resources attempting to defend Bakhmut. The White House is currently advising Ukraine not to launch any major counteroffensives to recapture the city.
The Joe Biden administration is additionally advising Kiev that continuing to pour soldiers into defending Bakhmut is preventing Ukrainian forces from attacking Russians defending other cities.
Ukraine is seeking tanks from its NATO partners. However, many countries, including the US and Germany have resisted sending their modern tanks to Ukraine.
Bakhmut is located in the Donetsk region. The BND believes if Russia takes the city, it will open the door for additional gains. Bakhmut has seen fierce fighting for several months, but the intensity picked up last week. Russian forces have made some gains in the city.
end
GERMANY//EUROPE//GLOBE
Germany’s Leopard 2: Where The Tank Is In Use
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The German government continues its hesitancy to allow buyers of its Leopard 2 battle tank to pass their stock on to Ukraine.
While it is usual that producers of defense goods keep the final say in resales, the Germans’ stance has been met with puzzlement given the interest of major buyer Poland as well as Denmark and Finland to supply the tanks.
As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, new German defense minister Boris Pistorius has merely ordered a tally of available stock of the Leopard 2. The country also said earlier that refurbished Leopard 2 tanks could only be supplied from Germany itself by 2024. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, much has been written about Germany’s reluctance to appear too involved in the military side of the conflict, but an even more sinister reason could be at play in the country’s latest snub. The resupply of tanks to European countries who passed their Leopards on could be snapped up by U.S. companies, German-language newspapers have been theorizing, as Germany’s own defense industry would not be up to the task of a quick restocking.
The U.S. meanwhile said it didn’t plan to supply a comparable tank, the M1 Abrams, since its engine that runs on jet fuel instead of diesel would not fit well into existing Ukrainian resupply operations. If the U.S. would supply tanks as well, this would reportedly set German officials more at ease, but as things are, a meeting at U.S. airbase Ramstein in Germany ended without a resolution on the deliveries Friday.
Leopard 2 tanks would be the first Western-made tanks supplied to Ukraine, potentially together with the British Challenger II.
Downing Street said on January 14 that it would send the weapons but didn’t provide a timeline. So far, European countries have merely passed on their older stock of Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine.
Poland has suggested it might break its agreement with Germany and supply the tanks nevertheless. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock to more puzzlement from observers said she would let the move slide.
According to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, around 1,900 Leopard 2s have been exported from Germany since 1992, including refurbished ones.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Germany sold a particularly large number of tanks in the 2000s, but recently only a few Leopards were exported abroad as its production has wound down and concentrated on countries outside of Europe.
The largest buyer over the past 20 years have been Turkey, Poland, Chile, Greece and Singapore.
Despite Turkey’s and Greece’s membership in NATO, exports to Ukraine are less likely from these countries as they are in an (inactive) conflict with one another.
end
UK POUND
United Kingdom finances not doing too good@
(Market Watch)
U.K. public sector borrowing spikes as PMI data shows economy faltering
Jan. 24, 2023 at 5:54 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
U.K. public borrowing in December was the highest for the last month of the year in at least 29 years, as separate data showed the British economy deteriorating.
Public sector borrowing reached £27.4 billion ($33.7 billion), the highest for December since monthly data started in 1993 and £16.7 billion above the year-ago level, according to the Office for National Statistics. The statistics agency blamed the cost of energy support measures for both households and businesses, as well as an increase in debt interest.
That was well ahead of consensus expectations for £17.3 billion of borrowing.
The ONS said public sector debt was 99.5% of gross domestic product, a ratio last seen in the early 1960s.
Separately, the U.K. flash purchasing managers composite index fell to a two-year low of 47.8 in January, from 49 in December and expectations of a slight rise to 49.1. The S&P Global/CIPS data was weighed down by the services sector, and purchasing managers noted higher interest rates and low consumer confidence weighing on activity.
Any reading below 50 indicates deteriorating activity.
The British pound GBPUSD, -0.72% was at $1.2311, vs. $1.2379 on Monday, and the yield on the 2-year gilt TMBMKGB- 02Y, 3.397% fell 5 basis points to 3.39%
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//USA/GERMANY
This is a huge escalation: USA will send 30 Ma Abram banks to Ukraine followed by Germany suppling Leopard 2 A 6 tanks. Doomsday clock moves to 90 seconds before midnight
(zerohedge)
Battle Tanks For Ukraine Approved On Same Day Doomsday Clock Hits Closest Point To Midnight In History
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 02:12 PM
Update(1412ET): The Biden administration has said it will send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, in a significant breakthrough and escalation after weeks of debate, as well as division over the issue within the NATO alliance.
Politico’s national security correspondents Alex Ward and Hans von der Burchard are further reporting that with the US ready to pull the trigger, Scholz’s Germany has followed by approving Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Germany is planning to send 14 of its Leopard 2 A6 tanks to Ukrainian forces.
Ominously, this comes on the very same day that the war in Ukraine has pushed the Doomsday Clock to its closest point to midnight in history, as The Hill details:
Russia’s war in Ukraine has significantly raised the risk of global self-annihilation, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warned Tuesday, moving forward the Doomsday Clock to its closest point to midnight ever.
The Doomsday Clock is meant to measure the gravest risks to human existence to pressure world leaders to recommit to addressing extinction-level challenges, such as the threat of nuclear weapon use, but has grown to include the dangers of climate change and biological risks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
The clock has moved to 90 seconds before midnight, 10 seconds closer than when it was last set in January 2022, shortly before Russia launched its invasion against Ukraine on Feb. 24.
“It is now 90 second to midnight”…
* * *
Now the US is “leaning” toward sending Ukraine its advanced Abrams M1 tanks, reports The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. “The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said,” the report indicates.
At the moment, a reluctant German government is coming under immense pressure to allow its Leopard 2 main battle tanks to be transferred to Ukrainian forces. Poland is leading the way in this pressure campaign. Image source: US Army
“The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations,” WSJ continues. “It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.”
Earlier this month Berlin signaled that would authorize the Leopards if Washington made the first move and took the initiative on sending the Abrams.
As of Tuesday the Polish government says it has formally submitted its request to Berlin to send the tanks. Germany by law must first authorize these transfers of its German-manufactured military items by other nations.
“The Germans have already received our request for consent to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine,” Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak confirmed on Tuesday. “I also appeal to the German side to join the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.”
Despite prior signals that Berlin would not be approving the transfer anytime soon for stated reasons of wishing to avoid escalation with Russia, as predicted it looks as if Germany is weakening under pressure.
Bloomberg reports Tuesday that “Germany is expected to give Poland approval as soon as Wednesday to re-export its German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the decision is private.”
This despite repeat warnings from Russian officials this week that ‘global catastrophe’ could be unleashed if the West keeps pumping heavier weapons in the conflict, also amid nuclear escalation warnings.
end
Ukraine
What else is new in this most corrupted sovereign on the planet?
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Rocked By Corruption Scandal, Wave Of Top Officials Resign: Sports Cars, Mansions & Luxury Vacations As People Suffered
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 11:50 AM
The Ukrainian government on Tuesday confirmed the resignation of multiple high ranking officials amid large-scale corruption allegations, in what’s being called the biggest mass resignation and graft scandal since the Russian invasion began.
Some dozen officials have quit their posts after a huge political shake-up over allegations and probes into cases ranging from bribery, to mismanagement of aid funds for purchasing food, to embezzlement, to driving expensive cars while common people suffer under wartime conditions.
A top presidential adviser and four deputy ministers – among these two defense officials, along with five regional governors were forced out of their posts. And among the regional governors to step down included officials overseeing regions which have seen intense fighting, including the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, where Russian forces have lately reported gains.
In reference to the announcement by a senior government official, Oleg Nemchinov, international reports detail the following list:
- Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
- Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukeryu
- Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
- Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenk
- And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson
And separately, “the defense ministry had earlier announced the resignation of deputy minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who was in charge of the army’s logistical support, on the heels of accusations it was signing food contracts at inflated prices.”
In this case regarding the food contracts, Shapovalov is accused of signing a deal with an unknown, shady firm. In his role as deputy defense minister, his is the most notable and visible resignation. Crucially he would have had no small part in overseeing the billions of dollars flowing from the pockets of US and European taxpayers as authorized defense aid.
He purchased military rations at inflated prices in what appears a scheme to line the pockets of contractors, and potentially involving kickbacks to himself.
While the defense ministry is still trying to downplay it as a “technical error” – Politico reviews of the details to the scandal:
An exposé from the Ukrainian news website ZN.UA revealed last week that the defense ministry purchased overpriced food supplies for its troops. For instance, the ministry bought eggs at 17 hryvnias per piece, while the average price of an egg in Kyiv is around 7 hryvnias. According to ZN.UA, a contract for food procurement for soldiers in 2023 amounted to 13.16 billion hryvnias (€328 million).
This is two to three times higher than current rates for such food items, reports say. Shapovalov’s resignation letter indicated he’s stepping down so as “not to pose a threat to the stable supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a result of a campaign of accusations related to the purchase of food services.”
There’s also deputy head of the Zelensky administration Kyrylo Tymoshenko, who stands accused of living a lavish wartime lifestyle. Many current mainstream media reports on Tuesday are burying some of the key verified details. For example, BBC writes simply that “Tymoshenko was implicated in several scandals during his tenure, including in October last year when he was accused of using a car donated to Ukraine for humanitarian purposes.”
But starting in early December local Ukrainian outlets, angered at the posh lifestyle of Ukrainian leaders at a moment tens of millions are without power amid Russian aerial bombardment of the nation’s power grid, began confirming that Tymoshenko drove high-end sports cars in and out of the capital, to and from mansions which typically range in cost from $10,000 to $25,000 per month. Deputy Head of the President’s Office 34-year-old Kirill Timoshenko
Below are photos published by The New Voice of Ukraine, republished in Yahoo News, in early December of last year, showing Tymoshenko frequently behind the wheel of a shiny new Porsche Taycan…
One outlet published a photo series entitled Not the “martial law” of Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of Ukraine’s Office of the President
US taxpayer dollars at work in Ukraine…
As another example of Western MSM seeking to downplay or soften this latest wave of graft-related forced resignations, the AFP writes, “Ukraine has long suffered endemic corruption, including among the political elite, but efforts to stamp out graft have been overshadowed by Moscow’s full-scale war that began in February.” And yet officials like Tymoshenko were spotted around Kiev and oligarchs’ neighborhoods driving luxury sports cars for months throughout the war.
Additionally, there’s this laughable and embarrassing line out of the AFP report: “Kyiv’s Western allies, who have allocated billions of dollars in financial and military support, have been pushing for anti-corruption reforms for years, sometimes as a precondition for aid.”
From a government supposedly “pushing anti-corruption reforms for years” to over $100 billion in US defense and foreign aid being pledged to Kiev’s coffers over the past year… to now this from within the heart of the Zelensky administration:
It doesn’t stop at posh and expensive cars, but the controversy has even extended to luxury vacations abroad as Ukrainians suffer the deprivations of war at home. “The departure of Symonenko, a deputy prosecutor general, comes after media reports that he spent a holiday in Spain this winter, reportedly using a car belonging to a Ukrainian businessman.” The government has as a result now reportedly barred top officials from vacationing abroad as a result of the scandal.
Just prior to the wave of resignations, another official named Vasyl Lozynskiy was accused of receiving bribes to “facilitate” the purchase of generators at greatly hiked-up prices. Crucially, Lozynskiy as Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Communities Development would have also been directly involved in overseeing how billions of dollars in Western humanitarian and infrastructure assistance gets doled out.
Commenting on this, mainstream media is now belatedly acknowledging a fact that’s long been well-known, but which would get a person ‘canceled’ in public discourse if they dared pointed it out:
“Transparency International ranked Ukraine 122 out of 180 in its corruption ranking for 2021,” the AFP now writes (the second most corrupt in Europe, with Russia the most at 136.)
And now Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov is under scrutiny related to the growing probe and scandal. Meanwhile, as news of the widening scandal hits world headlines..
END.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA
Is Russia trying to warn NATO from self induced slaughter ?
| Robert Hryniak | 4:48 PM (26 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
In modern war electronic warfare is where it is at and without an edge you simply lose and end up dying as a result.
It is important to remember that all wars are banker wars and not that of nations anymore as banking cartels control what nations do to further collapsing agendas. It is what we see with the WEF and other such globalist groups. Debt based national financing has run the course and affects Banks who hold debt that cannot be repaid.
In the past, we have seen 2 examples of an American Destroyer “Donald Cook” engaged in the Black Sea and rendered useless as all EW (electronic systems) was fried by a Russian jet. Clearly indicating that secret weaponry does exist and can be used to indicate warning by turning off all electronic ability. Actually Iran has a slightly different version of this that they never have shown.
We have also seen how Russian paratroopers landed unseen by EW behind Ukrainian lines in Soledar , effectively attacking such troops from the rear, and ending up, saving the lives of hundreds of Ukrainian troops by destroying the Azov enforcers in the rear designed to ensure that the front line troops fight. It was front line soldiers who surrendered while the AZOV troops were killed. No one heard or saw the helicopters who delivered the troops. Most recently, there was a large missile strike on the Ukraine. American AWAC”S and satellites were blind to the attack until such time it occurred, unable to give warning to Ukrainians. it is why more AWAC’s have been sent. NATO which includes Americans still are in denial as to reality. In the past on more than one occasion we have illustrated and commented on Russian ability to make a battlefield go dark. When there is no real satellite imagery and the like, one fights blind as the only sight is that of eyes and sounds. It is thought these examples seen are simply a warning of what will happen when Russians really engage. Because NATO troops will not fare better than Ukrainians. And the Russians have provided ample warning of what to expect. Assuming that anyone cares to see.
Here is a video on Penicillin which is wiping out Ukrainian used artillery systems. An unstoppable detection system which efficiently destroys artillery. And it is making Ukrainians void of artillery across the front lines. There is no way to resupply such losses to date and only fractional future capability is possible and that too will be destroyed.
> https://youtu.be/KmjXGG-l3zE
>
> One of the largest electrical substations destroyed in Odessa and no one knew until it happened. Should we not ask why? Because such destruction unknown until it occurs leaves no counter ability to avoid it.
> https://avia-pro.net/news/v-odesse-unichtozhena-odna-iz-krupneyshih-elektropodstanciy
END
RUSSIA/ESTONIA
How to start a war
My goodness: this is dangerous. Estonia is blocking Russian shipping to and from St Petersburg.
(AviaPro/Robert H)
1/23/23
1/23/23
By Avia Pro
The Estonian authorities have decided to introduce a coastal “contiguous zone” in the Gulf of Finland, which will block Russian shipping through it. Formally, the passage in the Gulf of Finland will be free for Russian ships, however, only on the conditions stipulated by the authorities of this country. A similar position was voiced by the head of the Estonian Foreign Ministry.
“The introduction of the ‘contiguous zone’ makes it possible to verify compliance with Estonian legislation within 24 nautical miles of the Estonian territorial sea baseline ,” said Reinsalu.
It is known that the Estonian authorities intend to inspect Russian ships, and if they carry any sanctioned cargo, or refuse to present the cargo itself, the passage of Russian ships will be limited and blocked in both directions.
The Russian side has not yet commented on the decision of the Estonian authorities to block the Gulf of Finland, however, it is obvious that Russia is categorically against any restrictions. However, the Convention on the Law of the Sea allows for a “contiguous zone” of up to 12 miles from the outer territorial maritime boundary. In the Gulf of Finland, it can stretch for three miles of free navigation.
Source:
Подробнее на: https://avia.pro/news/estoniya-blokiruet-finskiy-zaliv-dlya-rossiyskih-korabley
The distance at the narrow point between Estonia and Finland is approximately. 40 miles. Russia ships have been using that route for hundreds of years. In fact, It is the only route to reach St.Petersburg, Russia. This kind of restriction could cause a major incident at sea, in which the Russians will respond militarily against any nation that tries to blockade their ships. The 12,000 NATO troops there are cannon fodder if war breaks out.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
Russia’s newest tank!
BMP-3
| Robert Hryniak | 10:26 AM (26 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
Battle tested in Syria and Eastern Ukraine and in serial production for export … clearly capacity exists for domestic needs …
Meanwhile SU-35’s start being delivered to Iran in late April in the 1st batch. Pilot training already underway in Russia on existent aircraft.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
This is huge!!
Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Goes Into Liver Cells and Is Converted to DNA: Study
The messenger RNA (mRNA) from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is able to enter human liver cells and is converted into DNA, according to Swedish researchers at Lund University.
The researchers found that when the mRNA vaccine enters the human liver cells, it triggers the cell’s DNA, which is inside the nucleus, to increase the production of the LINE-1 gene expression to make mRNA.
The mRNA then leaves the nucleus and enters the cell’s cytoplasm, where it translates into LINE-1 protein. A segment of the protein called the open reading frame-1, or ORF-1, then goes back into the nucleus, where it attaches to the vaccine’s mRNA and reverse transcribes into spike DNA.
Reverse transcription is when DNA is made from RNA, whereas the normal transcription process involves a portion of the DNA serving as a template to make an mRNA molecule inside the nucleus.
“In this study we present evidence that COVID-19 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 is able to enter the human liver cell line Huh7 in vitro,” the researchers wrote in the study, published in Current Issues of Molecular Biology. “BNT162b2 mRNA is reverse transcribed intracellularly into DNA as fast as 6 [hours] after BNT162b2 exposure.”
BNT162b2 is another name for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine that is marketed under the brand name Comirnaty.
The whole process occurred rapidly within six hours. The vaccine’s mRNA converting into DNA and being found inside the cell’s nucleus is something that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said would not happen.
“The genetic material delivered by mRNA vaccines never enters the nucleus of your cells,” the CDC said on its web page titled “Myths and Facts about COVID-19 Vaccines.”
This is the first time that researchers have shown in vitro or inside a petri dish how an mRNA vaccine is converted into DNA on a human liver cell line, and is what health experts and fact-checkers said for over a year couldn’t occur.
The CDC says that the “COVID-19 vaccines do not change or interact with your DNA in any way,” claiming that all of the ingredients in both mRNA and viral vector COVID-19 vaccines (administered in the United States) are discarded from the body once antibodies are produced. These vaccines deliver genetic material that instructs cells to begin making spike proteins found on the surface of SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 to produce an immune response.
Pfizer didn’t comment on the findings of the Swedish study and said only that its mRNA vaccine does not alter the human genome.
“Our COVID-19 vaccine does not alter the DNA sequence of a human cell,” a Pfizer spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “It only presents the body with the instructions to build immunity.”
More than 215 million or 64.9 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated as of Feb. 28, with 94 million having received a booster dose.<img class=”wp-image-3275950 size-large” src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2020/03/17/15fd38df02025104_ttl7dayhzP_49584124196_f5871078c6_k-1200×900.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”640″ height=”480″ /> A 3D print of a spike protein of SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—in front of a 3D print of a SARS-CoV-2 virus particle. (Courtesy of NIAID/RML)
Autoimmune Disorders
The Swedish study also found spike proteins expressed on the surface of the liver cells that researchers say may be targeted by the immune system and possibly cause autoimmune hepatitis, as “there [have] been case reports on individuals who developed autoimmune hepatitis after BNT162b2 vaccination.”
The authors of the first reported case of a healthy 35-year-old female who developed autoimmune hepatitis a week after her first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine said that there is a possibility that “spike-directed antibodies induced by vaccination may also trigger autoimmune conditions in predisposed individuals” as it has been shown that “severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection are characterized by an autoinflammatory dysregulation that contributes to tissue damage,” which the virus’s spike protein appears to be responsible for.
Spike proteins may circulate in the body after an infection or injection with a COVID-19 vaccine. It was assumed that the vaccine’s spike protein would remain mostly at the injection site and last up to several weeks like other proteins produced in the body. But studies are showing that is not the case.
The Japanese regulatory agency’s biodistribution study (pdf) of the Pfizer vaccine showed that some of the mRNAs moved from the injection site and through the bloodstream, and were found in various organs such as the liver, spleen, adrenal glands, and ovaries of rats 48 hours following injection.
In a different study, the spike proteins made in the body after receiving a Pfizer COVID-19 shot have been found on tiny membrane vesicles called exosomes—that mediate cell-to-cell communication by transferring genetic materials to other cells—for at least four months after the second vaccine dose.
The persistence of the spike protein in the body “raises the prospect of sustained inflammation within and damage to organs which express the spike protein,” according to experts at Doctors for COVID Ethics, an organization consisting of physicians and scientists “seeking to uphold medical ethics, patient safety, and human rights in response to COVID-19.”
“As long as the spike protein can be detected on cell-derived membrane vesicles, the immune system will be attacking the cells that release these vesicles,” they said.
Dr. Peter McCullough, an internist, cardiologist, and epidemiologist, wrote on Twitter that the Swedish study’s findings have “enormous implications of permanent chromosomal change and long-term constitutive spike synthesis driving the pathogenesis of a whole new genre of chronic disease.”
Whether the findings of the study will occur in living organisms or if the DNA converted from the vaccine’s mRNA will integrate with the cell’s genome is unknown. The authors said more investigations are needed, including in whole living organisms such as animals, to better understand the potential effects of the mRNA vaccine.
“At this stage, we do not know if DNA reverse transcribed from BNT162b2 is integrated into the cell genome. Further studies are needed to demonstrate the effect of BNT162b2 on genomic integrity, including whole genome sequencing of cells exposed to BNT162b2, as well as tissues from human subjects who received BNT162b2 vaccination,” the authors said.
Meiling Lee is a health reporter for The Epoch Times. Contact her by emailing meiling.lee@epochtimes.nyc
end
As we have discussed many times: masks are useless!
(zerohedge)
Australians Were Once Prosecuted For Claiming Face Masks Worked Against Viruses
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 10:40 PM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
Australians who tried to sell surgical face masks on the back of claims they worked against viruses were once threatened with prosecution and massive fines by the government.
Yes, really.
An article titled ‘Farce mask: it’s safe for only 20 minutes’ published by the Sydney Morning Herald in 2003 explained how, “Retailers who cash in on community fears about SARS by exaggerating the health benefits of surgical masks could face fines of up to $110,000.”
The article quotes a public health experts who said that face masks are largely useless at stopping the spread of viruses and could even worsen the situation.
“Those masks are only effective so long as they are dry,” said Professor Yvonne Cossart of the Department of Infectious Diseases at the University of Sydney.
“As soon as they become saturated with the moisture in your breath they stop doing their job and pass on the droplets.”
Professor Cossart said that the masks would need to be changed every 15-20 minutes to be in any way effective.
Her sentiments were echoed by John Bell from the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, who said that masks only offered “marginal benefit” and were largely psychological in their level of protection.
The story is noteworthy because during the COVID pandemic, the Australian government imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world and used face mask mandates as a brutal tool of population control.
As we previously highlighted, authorities in Melbourne used high-tech surveillance drones to catch people outside not wearing masks.
At the height of the hysteria, there were numerous instances of police in Australia physically attacking people for not adhering to mask wearing rules, including one incident when a woman was placed in a chokehold by a male police officer.
Another video showed an elderly woman being arrested for not wearing a mask while sitting on a park bench.
Yet another clip showed police pepper spraying pre-teen children for not wearing face masks.
Another clip showed an elderly man suffering a suspected heart attack after he was arrested by police for not wearing a mask outside while exercising.
During the early months of the COVID pandemic, health authorities advised against wearing masks, only to subsequently do a 180 once face coverings became a convenient psychological tool of population control.
* * *
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end
GLOBAL ISSUES;/
PAUL ALEXANDER
As predicted:
We expected this, no surprise to us: BQ & XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, rendering inactive all authorized antibodies (Wang); immune escape, fixation, tolerance
BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, & XBB.1 are most resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants to date; Serum neutralization was markedly reduced, including with the bivalent booster; All clinical monoclonal antibodies inactive
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 23 |
Simply put, the booster is a failure and is causing serious harms too. Must be pulled, must be stopped as there is no conferred benefit.
As long as we keep vaccinating with a sub-optimal non-neutralizing (non-sterilizing) gene injection platform (some call it a vaccine and I do not) that does not sterilize the virus, and roll it out into the teeth of a pandemic where there is massive infectious pressure (circulating virus pressing down on the population), then natural selection (selective pressure) will select for more immune evading infectious sub-variants (“fitter, hardier”) and this will happen. It has happened.
We are seeing clear evidence of original antigenic sin (I call the sin ‘mortal’ given there is no reversal of the initial primed response that devolves into immune escape and severe illness to the vaccinated), viral immune escape, immune tolerance (IgG4 class-switching), immune fixation/prejudicing/imprinting. There is also the risk of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (and of disease) and pathogenic priming (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292901/).
This is designed to happen this way, the pandemic will never end IMO for 100 more years, with infectious variant after another driven by the COVID gene injection itself, and thus the need to keep extending the emergency powers. This is it. The emergency powers will never end because variants keep emerging, yet the variants are emerging due to the gene injection. What a perverse ingenious scheme they have devised. This is a slow-kill bioweapon, IMO, and if I wanted to develop such a bioweapon, a biological weapon, I would bring this type of sub-optimal vaccine just the way it has been developed, and roll it out in the very same manner in the midst of a pandemic.
SOURCE:
Please see my prior substack on this, as it is clear, the bivalent booster has failed catastrophically and there is constant evidence being published of the failure (see prior study by Miller et al. that supports this one by Wang et al.):
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter
2 hours ago · 42 likes · 24 comments · Dr. Paul Alexander
Remember what I had written prior:
Five devastating aspects of the COVID gene injection today (mRNA & DNA platforms):
i)There are significant adverse effects from the COVID gene injection (mRNA & DNA platforms) e.g. bleeding, blood clotting, myocarditis, paralysis, anaphylaxis etc. including death
ii)There is clear evidence that the COVID gene injection (mRNA & DNA platforms) drives original antigenic sin, viral immune escape, and immune fixation, priming; We are seeing clear evidence of original antigenic sin (I call the sin ‘mortal’ given there is no reversal of the initial primed response), viral immune escape, immune tolerance, immune fixation/prejudicing/imprinting. There is also the risk of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (and of disease) and pathogenic priming (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292901/).
iii)There is substantial risk that the antigen-specific ‘high-affinity’ vaccine induced antibodies subvert and sideline, outcompete the broadly protective lower-affinity innate antibodies of the naïve innate immune system of the young child that needs training and education as the maternal antibodies wane. This sets the child up for auto-immune disease as the training to recognize ‘self’ from ‘non-self’ (& nuances self-like, self-mimicking) components in the child is subverted (this involves sub-optimal training of the natural killer cells (NK))
iv)The sub-optimal non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies in the teeth of a pandemic when there is constant elevated infectious pressure drives natural selection (selective) pressure to select for more infectious sub-variants and a potentially more lethal virulent one
v)The vaccine induced antibodies are giving the virus infectivity properties it prior did not have, causing the vaccinated to become infected, with increased illness, hospitalization, and death; the vaccinated no longer could contribute to herd immunity and are transmitting virus to other vaccinated as well as unvaccinated persons; See Fantini et al (Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?): https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/)
end
Do COVID mRNA injections (Pfizer and Moderna), e.g. the toxic mRNA itself and/or the deadly lipid-nano-particles (LNP) directly contribute to giant cell arteritis and ruptured aortic aneurysm? Likely?
There is even a link between the influenza vaccine and giant cell arteritis ( GCA), what say you? see these 3 studies for consideration.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 24 |
Let me tee up some evidence to help you ask critical questions as to the potential that these dangerous ineffective and deadly COVID gene injections vaccines can kill via ruptured aortic aneurysm. I am only asking you to put some wings to your thoughts. We are not stupid people, us societally, and you have shown to be very critical and even more technically sound that academic scientists and medical doctors. We have learnt lots about the fraud lockdown lunacy response and the ineffective and very harmful COVID gene injection. So here goes.
Study 1 for consideration:
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
What does this study say? Its showed that persons with giant cell arteritis (GCA) have ‘a markedly increased risk of developing thoracic aortic aneurysms (AA)’. Yet is it due to Aortitis?
Study 2 for consideration:
What does this study say and can we link it (aneurysm) to the mRNA vaccines directly? I say yes, we can.
Look at this study by Liozon et al. on the link between the influenza vaccine and giant cell arteritis ( GCA):
Study 3 for consideration:
Now look at this Anzola et al. study in 2022 pointing to a potential direct link between the COVID mRNA gene injection and GCA:
This paper is catastrophic for it points a finger directly to the COVID mRNA injection as a likely contributor to GCA and ruptured aortic aneurysm. If not directly, then tangently.
Anzola et al. reported that ‘one of the hypotheses on the pathophysiology of GCA highlights the role of an infectious agent. This conjecture derives from the seasonal incidence of the disease, viral antigens on temporal artery biopsies, and several reports regarding viral entities such as varicella-zoster [9] and, more recently, SARS-COV-2 as possible GCA triggers. Likewise, a relationship with the influenza vaccine has been described [10]. In a recently published case of GCA related to the mRNA vaccine, a similar observation was made regarding these vaccines and their ability to induce cross-reactivity and trigger self-recognition using different mechanisms [2].’
Anzola went on to say that while ‘the overall incidence of vaccine-triggered autoimmunity is low, vaccinations should continue as planned.’ These researchers are calling on rheumatologists worldwide to recognize this risk and to be aware of autoimmune diseases as a new potential adverse event of mRNA vaccines.
Five devastating aspects of the COVID gene injection today (mRNA & DNA platforms): 1)causes adverse effects 2)original antigen sin, immune imprinting, tolerance 3)subverts innate antibodies driving
auto-immune disease 4)drives emergence of infectious variants due to selective pressure on the antigen 5)causes the vaccinated to become infected with risk of illness, hospitalization and death
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 24 |
Five devastating aspects of the COVID gene injection today (mRNA & DNA platforms):
i)There are significant adverse effects from the COVID gene injection (mRNA & DNA platforms)
ii)There is clear evidence that the COVID gene injection (mRNA & DNA platforms) drives original antigenic sin, viral immune escape, and immune fixation, priming; We are seeing clear evidence of original antigenic sin (I call the sin ‘mortal’ given there is no reversal of the initial primed response), viral immune escape, immune tolerance, immune fixation/prejudicing/imprinting. There is also the risk of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (and of disease) and pathogenic priming (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32292901/).
iii)There is substantial risk that the antigen-specific ‘high-affinity’ vaccine induced antibodies subvert and sideline, outcompete the broadly protective lower-affinity innate antibodies of the naïve innate immune system of the young child that needs training and education as the maternal antibodies wane. This sets the child up for auto-immune disease as the training to recognize ‘self’ from ‘non-self’ (& nuances self-like, self-mimicking) components in the child is subverted (this involves sub-optimal training of the natural killer cells (NK))
iv)The sub-optimal non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies in the teeth of a pandemic when there is constant elevated infectious pressure drives natural selection (selective) pressure to select for more infectious sub-variants and a potentially more lethal virulent one
v)The vaccine induced antibodies are giving the virus infectivity properties it prior did not have, causing the vaccinated to become infected, with increased illness, hospitalization, and death; the vaccinated no longer could contribute to herd immunity and are transmitting virus to other vaccinated as well as unvaccinated persons; See Fantini et al (Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?): https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/)
end
Compare the two countries:
Japan & South Africa: tale of 2 nations, one took massive COVID gene injection (mRNA-DNA platforms), the other did not; one used early treatment & prophylaxis; what do you see with infections? INNATE!
We see this consistently across the world where the highly vaccinated nations & those that denied use of early treatment have massively elevated infection, hospitalization & death; Africa has WON!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 23 |
One nation (and generally the African continent) allowed it’s population TIME to more properly train and educate and inform it’s innate immune system (via the potent role of natural innate antibodies and natural killer cells) and to be exposed, with recovery and natural immunity, and now look how it has responded to omicron and all sub-variants/clades. Africa has won! The continent knew the key role of the anti-helminth anti-parasitic drugs worked for near one century and applied them lavishly. They seemed to understand the impact of ivermectin on RNA dependent RNA polymerase enzyme and viral replication etc. Look at the result, coupled to the younger populations. They understood the role of the anti-virals when used in combination and sequenced.
The western world was happy with its enshrined sick, twisted racism and colonial mentality and discrimination of brown and black peoples and snickered and sneered at Africans and Asians who could not even afford the vaccines. It is that poverty and questioning by the Africans, it is that racism by the western nations of Canada, US, Britain and Europe, who hoarded and stuck gene injections out of their eyeballs and up their colonial slave arses, that now is haunting them for the Pfizer and Moderna COVID injection has failed, the mRNA and DNA platform does not confer sterilizing immunity, has damaged the immune systems of vaccinated people, is driving infectious variants (and potentially virulent ones) to emerge, causes the vaccinated to become infected and worse still. Hospitalization and death faces them.
Yet the hubris, the arrogance, the absurdity, the non-sensical, illogical, irrational mentality of the west, the ex cathedra mentality of non-brown, non-blacks, the duplicity and malfeasance of the pharmaceutical companies with the death shot, has laid bare the filth of it all and showed us that Africa, love the black person or not, HAS WON! I say praise the Lord! Praise the Lord for the black man and woman as they told you take your western death shot and shove it! The immune system of the African person is the prize, as is the immune system of the unvaccinated westerner, your unvaccinated western child. Protect it with your life.
I hear the elites in the west and Europe will fly to anywhere you tell them to come too, polluting God’s earth with their jets, and pay big money for your blood and immune system. Ha ha ha! Oh how I love it! The irony of it all!
One thing is for sure, COVID has settled the dust and showed us the sickness and malfeasance of humans, of sordid banal behavior, and sadly, even in the COVID movement itself. I would argue that the most putrid poorly behaved holier than thou yet most inept and stupid corrupted people I have met, not all, are in the COVID freedom fighter movement.
Thank you Africa and Asia, for there is still hope! You helped us crystalize human behavior in a time of crisis.
“It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine & it’s the innate immune system, stupid, it’s the innate immune system!”
More bad news for COVID gene injection vaccine with Substantial Neutralization Escape by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants BQ.1.1 & XBB.1 (Miller); immune imprinting, fixation, immune escape, antigenic sin
These findings suggest that the BQ.1.1 and XBB.1 variants may reduce the efficacy of current mRNA vaccines
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 23 |
See Figure 1, Frames B, C, & D for before and after boosting for the neutralizing antibody titers for BQ 1.1, and XBB 1.1. Look at WA 1/2020 and the impact of boosting.
SOURCE:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36652339/
‘Our data show that the BQ.1.1 and XBB.1 variants escaped neutralizing antibodies substantially more effectively than the BA.5 variant by factors of 7 and 17, respectively, after monovalent mRNA boosting and by factors of 7 and 21, respectively, after bivalent mRNA boosting. The neutralizing antibody titers to BQ.1.1 and XBB.1 were dramatically lower than titers to the WA1/2020 strain by factors of 53 and 127, respectively, in the monovalent booster cohort and by factors of 80 and 232, respectively, in the bivalent booster cohort. These findings suggest that the BQ.1.1 and XBB.1 variants may reduce the efficacy of current mRNA vaccines’
/VACCINE IMPACT
35,702 Vaccine Deaths in VAERS Since 1990 – 32,052 of those Deaths Followed COVID Shots in Last 2 Years
January 23, 2023 6:06 pm
A search of all recorded deaths following vaccines in the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) for the past 32 years, starting in 1990 when the VAERS database was setup, shows 35,702 deaths for those 32 years, with 90% of those deaths, 32,052, occurring in the past 2 years following the emergency use authorized (EUA) COVID-19 “vaccines.” This is a human tragedy of unprecedented magnitude. How has the FDA responded to these statistics which clearly show how deadly the EUA COVID shots have been? Today, they recommended that all Americans be injected with COVID shots every year.
VACCINE INJURY
SLAY NEWS//
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK
“Rate Cuts *And* QT?”
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 10:05 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
It was a quiet day yesterday with Asia out, reflected in the fact that Bloomberg had ‘TikTok Restrictions Are Irking US College Students’ as one of its daybreak headlines before replacing it with US warnings to China over the latter’s aid to the Russian war effort. Of course, as just shown, there are far more important things to discuss than a lack of TikTok:
- In economics, the Wall Street Journal’s Timiraos (whispering again?) has noticed that if China opens up and stimulates, it complicates the inflation picture for central banks.
- In politics, a key FBI figure in ‘Russiagate’ has been arrested for colluding with a Russian; and
- In political-economy, there was discussion over a recent statement by the Fed’s Waller that appears to suggest the FOMC may carry out QT even when rates are being cut. If true, this severs the traditional link between the direction of rates and QE/QT.
Why is this political-economy not monetary economics? Because the Fed would be deliberately trying to steepen the yield curve to help the real economy while not blowing asset bubbles. That is as political as economy can get: a deliberate choice of one sector over another. In this case, of labor and production over capital – as even the Wall Street Journal today warns ‘US Weapons Industry Unprepared for a China Conflict, Report Says’. Let me also add that this is also completely compatible with the view repeated here over much of 2022: that rates can rise, and QE continue, in a form, in order to achieve the same real economy > financial economy effect.
Of course, that’s the opposite of the last 40-plus years of unofficial official policy, and so of the market’s current assumptions about the near future. The fact that this was relegated far behind the news that the Fed is, as Philip Marey already projected, now likely to switch to 25bp hikes, should not really be a surprise: markets see what suits markets best. However, it doesn’t mean they are right to ignore such things. Especially when we see not only ‘Bretton Woods 3!” fist-pumping, but the Financial Times at Davos asking, ‘The Era of Markets Ended in 2019: What Comes Next?’, and Wolfgang Munchau noting, ‘As globalisation fragments, politics is again reigning supreme over economics.’
Coincidentally, @michaelxpettis yesterday underlined something key: that economics is always political rather than neutral – but we deliberately choose not to see it, because of vested power interests.
Linking back to those college students, how is it possible that in an era in which all Western disciplines, even knitting, are seeing calls for “decolonisation”, that economics appears to be untouched, even when shifting geopolitical and political-economy sands are so very evident? After all, if there is one ‘science’ that is both political, directly vested in institutional power structures, and linked to the worst of Western excesses, it is modern, neoclassical economics.
It’s no coincidence that in learning economics today you don’t need to learn any economic history or the Classical Economists.
Do I even need to mention Marx, and his labor vs. capital? Or his analysis that economies are based on a flow of Money > Commodity > Commodity transformed by Means of Production > Commodity-plus > Money-plus that includes banks/credit and “real” vs. “fictitious” capital in a way central banks’ DSGE models still don’t? Indeed, try to adapt a modern model to encompass political economy and see if doesn’t end up looking close to the one Marx provides in Das Kapital.
Even a market-favored Classical Economist like Smith was a moral philosopher: what he said about “The Invisible Hand” bears no correlation to the reductive manner in which it is employed today. He actually says it leads capitalists to patriotically only invest at home. Ricardo –free trade’s intellectual father– shoots it down himself in also saying it doesn’t work with free movement of capital: he therefore assumes no free movement of capital. Both views gets censored by the few universities who ‘bullet point’ Smith and Riccardo summaries, while avoiding Marx. So does the fact that Riccardo’s brother worked in a bank issuing letters of credit, so the more free trade done, the more money he made. In that respect, Classical Riccardo was classically neoclassical and neoliberal.
With the emergence of neoclassical economics under Walras and Jevons, et al., political-economy was jettisoned and replaced with ‘equilibrium’ maths and ‘logical’ twaddle – as well as the historical record that the worst parts of Classical economics carried over into the neoclassical were the linked to Western imperialism: free trade (and colonialism) were spread by the British literally at gun point. In fact, as Adam Tooze underlined this week in a reference to Slobodian’s ‘Globalists’ this week, neoliberal, neoclassical economics, partially emerged from the collapse of the Habsburg Empire post-WWI, where: “Austrian economists of the 1920s saw the democratic nation-state as a threat to the free flow of resources that had been previously secured by Imperial power. A new political economy was required to encase the economy and insulate it from democratic national sovereignty.” In short, it was an excuse to keep political-economy vested-interest power structures in place before voters could get a say and redistribute any capital.
It also goes without saying that a later economic giant like Keynes was a political-economist, before he got ‘synthesized’ into silly maths and illogic too. So was Hayek. So was Schumpeter, who produced the epic ‘History of Economic Analysis’ going all the way back to the ancient Greeks; moreover, he later rejected neoliberalism and embraced corporatism, backing a Catholic doctrine of Quadragesimo anno that replaces markets-as-god with the view that God likes self-restraint in markets. Friedmann was a political-economist, wearing a better mask, with far worse logic. Minsky was a political-economist, if you read between the lines, because he had read and understood the better parts of Marx. Krugman is a political-economist not wearing a mask at all.
Somehow, the US college students irked about less access to the inanities of TikTok in days full of curriculum decolonisation have so far not turned their sights fully on economics; ironically, it’s no joke to say US economics departments are perhaps the only ones where self-described Marxists are not heavily over-represented: which perhaps then says something about power and vested interests? However, in the real world, real questions are being asked, about the real economy, and require real solutions. And really soon. (And it would be nice if all the key players, like the Fed and the Treasury, were lined up the same way for once while doing so.)
The key lesson is that economics is politics, and politics is economics; and geopolitics is geoeconomics, and geoeconomic is geopolitics. The key fiscal and monetary policy decisions that are going to be made ahead are not happening in a (geo)political vacuum, but in a (geo)political maelstrom. To presume they will look like those of the recent past, i.e., Fed rate cuts and QE, presumes the world still looks like that of the recent past. If it doesn’t, why not a (geo)political/(geo)economic risk of rate cuts and QT ahead, or rate hikes and QE?
“Because markets”? You make my point for me!
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
US NatGas Prices Soar After Freeport “Completed Repairs” Of Damaged Terminal, Aims For Partial Restart
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 05:20 PM
US natural gas futures jumped late in the session after news hit that Freeport LNG, a major liquefied natural gas export terminal on the Texas coast which has been closed since an explosion last summer, said repairs to the terminal are complete and is seeking approval for restart.
Freeport wrote a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requesting permission to restart the terminal that accounts for about 15% of all US LNG exports.
Pursuant to your letter dated June 30, 2022, Freeport LNG Development, LP (“Freeport”) must obtain written approval from FERC before restarting any non-emergency operations in existing facilities, constructing new or modified facilities, and commissioning and placing any facilities back into service.
As further described herein, Freeport has completed repairs to the Export Facility on Quintana Island, Texas, performed safety reviews, revised various procedures, implemented new safety systems and performed necessary training in order to safely begin to resume initial operations at its Export Facility.
NatGas surged 9% to $3.45 per million British thermal units.
NatGas prices will need to hold the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level ($3.41) if further upside is to be achieved.
In recent weeks, we’ve pointed out Freeport flows were indications the plant was nearing a restart:
- NatGas Flows Start To Freeport LNG’s Long-Shut Export Plant
- Freeport LNG Export Facility’s Power Flows Surge For First Time Since Explosion
However, Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research had this to say:
Criterion’s weekly analysis of progress at Freeport LNG indicated that repair work was still taking place as of last week, so it’s unclear what Freeport means when it cited that they have “completed repairs.” We don’t believe feed gas will be flowing in January, and February still seems to be an optimistic time frame for strong nominations. Based on prior announcements, once they get the green light to restart, Freeport’s timeline pinned down a ramp from zero to 2 Bcf/d over an approximately two-month period.
Here’s Freeport’s full letter to FERC:https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=DmwnWrRspxgLgssgbnJjRdsrdbvcxVQMVtQZPXVjffFNfTsGSDBXPmhxbnbVFDDRTjjNTFVDkTJb
Any February cold weather across the Lower 48, plus the Freeport export restart, could be bullish catalysts for reversing months of sliding NatGas prices.
end
Netherlands to shut down Europe’s largest gas field due to risks of earthquakes
(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)
Netherlands To Shut Down Europe’s Largest Gas Field
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 02:00 AM
By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com
The Dutch government plans to close the Groningen gas field this year despite Europe’s precarious supply position. Groningen is the largest gas field in Europe.
The field is dangerous, a government official from the Hague told the Financial Times, and the government has no plans to boost production from it.
“We won’t open up more because of the safety issues,” Hans Vijbrief told the FT.
“It is politically totally unviable. But apart from that, I’m not going to do it because it means that you increase the chances of earthquakes, which I don’t want to be responsible for.”
Production from Groningen has been curtailed substantially, and there were plans in place to phase out production altogether because of increased seismic activity in the vicinity of the field even before the energy crisis began in 2021.
As gas prices began to climb in the autumn of 2021 and then took off in the spring of 2022, some began speculating that the Netherlands could keep the field operating to contribute to filling the gap in gas supply left by Russian pipeline deliveries.
The Dutch government was skeptical about that from the start and instead suggested production be extended, although at a minimum rate of some 2.8 billion cu m. Now, this, too, is being reconsidered.
“It’s very, very simple: everybody who has some knowledge of earthquake danger tells me that it’s really very dangerous to keep on producing there. I’m quite convinced it’s wise to close it down,” Vijbrief told the FT.
Since the 1980s, the FT notes, there have been some 100 earthquakes annually around Groningen, resulting in more than 150,000 claims for property damage. The operator of the field, a Shell-Exxon joint venture, was ordered to start reducing output in 2013 with a view to shutting the field down eventually.
end
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
END
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0847 DOWN .0004
USA/ YEN 130.26 DOWN 0.342/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2288 DOWN 0.0091
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Sang CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.40% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.40%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 393.15 PTS OR 1.48%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1934.30
silver:$23.45
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.89 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.0005% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.408% UP 1 AND 2/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.121%// DOWN 8 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.914 DOWN 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.154% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0979 UP 0.0007 or 7 basis points//
USA/Japan: 130.05 DOWN .549 OR YEN UP 55 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2335 DOWN.0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.3360
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..(XXX) AT LUNAR HOLIDAY
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7839
TURKISH LIRA: 18.81 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.408…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.484% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.641 DOWN 5 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 101.70 UP 3 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 27.31 PTS OR 0.35%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 9.84POINTS OR 0.07%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 18.46 PTS OR 0.26%
Spain IBEX UP 23.00 POINTS OR 0.23%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 62.86 PTS OR 0.24%
WTI Oil price 80.12 12: EST
Brent Oil: 86.76 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 69,00/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 8/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.154
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.309 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0883 UP .0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2332 DOWN .0046 or 46 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.306% DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 130.01 DOWN 0.496////YEN UP 50 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3369 DOWN .0002 (CDN dollar, UP 2 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.01
Brent OIL: 86.14
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 3.466%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS PTS to 3.620%
USA dollar index:101.87 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.80
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 69.00 DOWN 0 AND 8/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 104.40 PTS OR 0.31%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 25.90 PTS OR 0.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.16 DOWN 0.65 PTS (3.278)%
GLD: $180/28 UP 0.65 OR 0.36%
SLV/ $21.76 UP .18 OR 0.83%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Short-Squeeze Stalls Amid Equity Market Mayhem; Bonds & Bullion Bid
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 04:01 PM
Richmond Fed affirmed recent weakness in ‘soft’ data (at six month lows) while ‘hard’ data has been sustained (and the S&P Global US PMIs were both ugly – despite small beats – remaining in contraction)…
Source: Bloomberg
But the big headlines were made at the cash open when 100s of stocks failed to open ‘correctly’ with major gaps higher or lower everywhere before trading was halted…
VZ +7%…
WFC -11%
That created a massive shit-sandwich around the cash open, but given the algos’ confusion the chaos continued for a while and markets definitely traded with less fluidity today. The last hour saw a wave of selling hit (no obvious headline catalysts) but that was met with a last minute panic-bid. The Dow was the day’s only green close while Nasdaq and Small Caps lagged…
Goldman’s ‘Soft Landing’ Basket stalled today…
Source: Bloomberg
As did ‘Most Shorted’ Stocks, which double topped at last week’s highs which happen to coincide with pre-December-CPI levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were bid today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -6bps, 2Y -1.5bps). On the week 10Y and 30Y Yields are lower while the rest are higher led by 2Y (though a strong auction helped the short-end bounce back a little)…
Source: Bloomberg
The kink in the T-Bill curve remains a signal that the market is not shrugging off the debt ceiling debacle…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continued to drift sideways-to-gently-lower since the CPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin also trod water, hovering around $23,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold dumped and pumped intraday (at exactly the same time as yesterday and Friday) but ended higher…
Oil prices tumbled most in 3 weeks – not helped by weakness in the US PMIs – with WTI falling back to a $79 handle…
Finally, despite hope for a ‘soft landing’ or for a ‘pause’ by The Fed, the market’s expectations for Fed rate trajectories has continued to drift hawkishly this last few days…
Source: Bloomberg
And while Feb odds of anything over 25bps are dwindling, the odds of a 25bps hike are rising in March…
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg notes a build up – although small in size – of dovish options bets on Fed trajectory in recent days (such as a Sept 23 bet that rates will be up 25bps – the market is currently pricing in around 45bps), but June remains the market’s expectation for the terminal rate (around 4.92%) before rate-cuts begin quickly…
Source: Bloomberg
“Given the timing of the window between the February and March FOMC meetings, the Fed will have a much greater understanding of the performance of the US economy when it meets late in Q1,” Ian Lyngen, the head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York, wrote in a note Monday.
“We don’t anticipate the information gained during the next intermeeting period will be sufficient to prevent a quarter-point move in March, but it could take a May hike off the table.”
Indeed, with financial conditions so drastically (and loosely) decoupled from monetary policy (and The Fed’s dotplot)…
Source: Bloomberg
…we suspect Powell won’t just sit there and take this “unwarranted easing” without a Jackson-Hole-esque pushback.
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//
ii) USA DATA
USA PMI’s show a huge and steep decline. This is a major release and shows that the USA is in deep trouble with their economy
(zerohedge)
US PMIs Decline “Among The Steepest Since The Global Financial Crisis” In January
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 09:56 AM
The preliminary US PMI data was slightly better than expected but remains in contraction:
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (January Flash) 46.8 vs 46.0 exp vs 46.2 prior – 7th monthly print below 50
- S&P Global US Services PMI (January Flash) 46.6 vs 45.0 exp vs 44.7 prior – 3rd monthly print below 50
Both remain below 50 (i.e. in contraction)
Source: Bloomberg
The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.6 in January, up from 45.0 at the end of 2022.
The contraction in activity was solid overall, but the slowest since last October. Goods producers and service providers recorded similar rates of decline, with service sector firms indicating a notable slowdown in the pace of decrease since December. Nonetheless, companies continued to highlight subdued customer demand and the impact of high inflation on client spending.
Not a good sign for US economic growth…
Commenting on the US flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since the global financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.
“Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers than evident throughout much of last year, reflecting a hesitancy to expand capacity in the face of uncertain trading conditions in the months ahead. Although the survey saw a moderation in the rate of order book losses and an encouraging upturn in business sentiment, the overall level of confidence remains subdued by historical standards. Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages.
Europe and Japan saw their Composite PMIs rise back into ‘expansion’ territory overnight (over 50 barely) but, while the US Composite inched higher, it remains the worst-performer among the global major economies and still in contraction (below 50).
Finally, Williamson points out a more problematic theme: “the worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.”
Stagflation to start the new year?!
Not exactly what stocks are pricing in…
Seems like the only hope is that The Fed folds first… because ‘soft landing’ this is not!
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
An excellent read!
(Victor Davis Hanson:)
Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico Is Not Really An American Friend
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 – 11:20 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson, op-ed via Townhall.com,
Left-wing Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador recently praised a visiting President Joe Biden:
“Just imagine: There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States – 40 million who were born here in Mexico, (or) who are the children of people who were born in Mexico!”
Why wouldn’t Obrador be delighted? Since Biden took office in January 2021, America has allowed some 5-6 million illegal entries across its southern border.
Obrador further congratulated the malleable Biden whom he sees as a kindred but complacent left-wing spirit:
“You are the first president of the United States in a very long time that has not built even one meter of wall.”
Translated that means Mexico is delighted the United States now cares little about the security of its border, the disappearance of which is wonderful news for Mexico.
Note that Mexico itself facilitates illegal transits across its southern border – as long as such Central American and other global migrants keep heading northward into the United States.
But when or if they pause, try to stay in Mexico, commit crimes, or expect Mexican social services, then almost immediately Mexico City sends thousands of troops to close its border with Guatemala, deports the illegal crossers, and revives talk of building a border wall of its own.
Biden has demolished America’s southern border. His illegal nullification of U.S. immigration law is music to Obrador’s ears.
But it is a nightmare to Americans who poll overwhelming disapproval of the subversion of their border security. They are exhausted by the influx of death-dealing drugs. And they are furious over the hundreds of billions of dollars diverted from their strapped social services to attend to the needs of foreign nationals who have broken their laws.
Even overwhelmed blue sanctuary cities that once boasted of nullifying federal immigration law are now beginning to object to Biden’s complicity in Mexico’s manipulation of the border.
Obrador is delighted that Biden is the first White House occupant who in matters of the shared southern border grants all of Mexico’s wishes, but almost none of his citizens.
That reality raises the question that if Mexico were a declared enemy of the United States, how would it behave any differently than it is now?
Take drugs, for example. American overdoses due to fentanyl and other opioids are nearing 100,000 deaths per year.
Almost all such lethal opiates are manufactured in factories operated by drug cartels in Mexico that enjoy de facto immunity from prosecution. The Mexican opioid industry was designed solely for lucrative export to the United States – with zero concern over the death and destruction its products cause here.
Well aside from human trafficking and smuggling, cartel drugs indirectly earn the Mexican economy somewhere between $35-45 billion each year.
A hostile China profits by selling Mexicans the raw product. Beijing gains satisfaction that at the present death rate, more Americans will perish this decade alone from imported Mexican drugs than all the combat deaths in all the wars since America’s founding.
In that sense, Mexico is doing more damage to America than all our prior enemies combined.
Obrador is equally callous in bragging that he exports his own poor. Left unsaid is that a naturally rich Mexico either will not, or cannot, adequately employ, feed, shelter, and protect its impoverished citizens.
So instead, it cynically sees its people as a lucrative export commodity while holding U.S. laws in veritable contempt.
Currently, Mexican nationals are sending nearly $60 billion a year in remittances from the United States to Mexico to aid friends and families who do not find enough succor from their government in Mexico City. Untaxed remittances far and away constitute the largest source of Mexico’s foreign exchange income.
Much of that gifting is made possible by generous American state and federal subsidies to illegal aliens. Frequent subsidized housing, healthcare, legal assistance, education, and food in the United States are often used to free up cash for illegals, who then send it to Mexico.
Mexico sees this export of its people as a win-win-win-win proposition.
Illegal immigration to America exempts Mexico from covering the social welfare costs of its poorest.
In safety-valve fashion, it exports the volatility of social inequality rather than spending large sums to address it.
Mexico sees its huge and growing expatriate community as a valuable lobbying lever inside America, given the longer Mexican nationals are absent from Mexico, the more they romanticize the country they fled.
Finally, Mexico is a left-wing nation. The more it sends its poor to the United States, the more it feels Democratic politicians who grant concessions to Mexico will gain valuable new political constituents – ensuring still further concessions.
One sure sign of historic national decline is the collective inability of a government and its people to defend their borders and national sovereignty.
Mexico would happily agree.
END
Mattress giant Serta succumbs to its death bed: files for 2nd bankruptcy in two years
(zerohedge)
Mattress Giant Serta Simmons Files For Second Bankruptcy In Two Years
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 03:40 PM
Atlanta-based mattress giant Serta Simmons Bedding filed for bankruptcy protection late on Monday in an effort to trim its debt load following a 2020 out-of-court restructuring which clearly did not trim nearly enough debt.
The Atlanta-based mattress maker filed in the Southern District of Texas on Monday, listing assets of $1 billion to $10 billion and liabilities in the same range in its petition. The company’s debt, which stems from a roughly $3 billion leveraged buyout by Advent International in 2012, has hobbled the retailer. Confidential talks over a restructuring plan started late last year, Bloomberg earlier reported.
Serta’s financial woes were exacerbated during the pandemic, while more recently the explosion in inflation weighed on the mattress retailer, which has a sizeable debt load maturing this year.
The Chapter 11 filing allows Serta to continue operating while implementing a deal, backed by a majority of lenders and shareholders, to cut its debt to $300 million from $1.9 billion, the company said in a statement. The company’s restructuring plan, which is subject to court approval, includes an $125 million debtor-in-possession asset-based loan, court papers show. The firm has also secured a commitment of $125 million in the same form once its exits bankruptcy. As Bloomberg notes, Serta requested approval to pay back suppliers either during the bankruptcy or after it completes the process. Nearly all of its top unsecured creditors are suppliers, with the top creditor owed more than $17 million, the filings show.
Serta agreed on a previous restructuring with creditors in 2020 that added $200 million of fresh capital while allowing some lenders to jump to the front of the repayment line. Other lenders were pushed back, a process known as priming. A group of funds including Angelo Gordon & Co. and Apollo Global Management sued Serta and rival lenders in the hopes of invalidating the transaction. In retrospect it was all for nothing.
Serta is working with advisers Weil, Gotshal; Evercore Group and FTI Consulting, while Gibson Dunn and Centerview are advising creditors; Ropes and Gray are working with Advent.
The case is Serta Simmons Bedding LLC, 23-90020, US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas.
END
TEXAS warns energy operators to prepare for cold snap
(zerohedge)
Texas Warns Energy Operators To Prepare For Cold Snap
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 10:25 AM
Oil and natural gas operators in west Texas, including the Permian Basin, have been warned by the state energy regulator to prepare equipment for a cold snap and snowfall on Tuesday.
The National Weather Service predicts cold weather and snow for parts of west Texas to the Panhandle. The Lone Star State’s fossil fuel and petrochemical industries are prone to freeze-offs when temperatures plunge.
The US-based Global Forecast System, or GFS, and the European ECMWF weather models suggest colder temperatures for the Permian Basin to Dallas to Amarillo through the end of the month into early February.
“Not only will this [cold snap] bring several waves of bitterly cold air to the Lower 48 [US states] during the first week of February, which notably could spike heating demand, but it could also produce more gas well freeze-offs in Texas, Louisiana, and portions of the Appalachian region,” Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets trading firm, wrote in a note to clients.
The latest round of cold weather plus news of Freeport LNG seeking approval to restart operations could be enough to rebound NatGas futures after months of heavy losses.
However, “this late in the withdrawal season, gas market bears contend that, no matter how intense an Arctic outbreak may be, gas inventories will be more than adequate to meet the demand for the remainder of the winter,” Gelber&Associates added. This might limit upside for NatGas prices if a rebound is seen.
end
3M tumbles after huge miss and slashing guidance
(zerohedge)
3M Tumbles After Huge Miss Despite Slashing Guidance Twice, Fires 2,500; Sees “Significant” Decline In Electronics Demand
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 11:03 AM
Consumer manufacturing giant 3M reported disappointing earnings on Tuesday (Q4 Adj EPS 2.28, exp. 2.36), said it plans to cut about 2,500 manufacturing jobs citing persistent economic hurdles, and forecast profit for this year that fell short of Wall Street estimates (now sees Q1 revenue of $7.2-7.6BN, exp. $8.4BN) as its CFO warned he sees electronics demand down “significantly” in 2023. The stock tumbled.
“We expect macroeconomic challenges to persist in 2023,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Roman said in a statement Tuesday.
The planned job cuts are “a necessary decision to align with adjusted production volumes,” he said.
The maker of assorted consumer goods such as Post-it notes, surgical supplies and touch-screen displays sees full-year adjusted earnings for 2023 in a range of $8.50 to $9.00 per share, excluding special items. That’s below the average analyst estimate. Worse, with the company missing on its adjusted operating margin for the Q4 period, it also warned that organic sales could fall as much as 3%: the industrial and consumer-goods conglomerate forecast Q1 EPS of $1.25-1.65, roughly 50% below the $2.56 consensus estimate.
end
USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES
end
USA COVID//
SWAMP STORIES
This is nuts!1
(zerohedge)
Classified Documents Found At Mike Pence’s House
TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 12:29 PM
A ‘small number’ of documents with classified markings were discovered at former Vice President Mike Pence’s home in Indiana last week, officials confirmed Tuesday.
On January 18, Pence’s team notified the National Archives that the documents were “inadvertently boxed and transported” to the former VP’s house at the end of the Trump administration, and that Pence was “unaware of the existence of sensitive or classified documents at his personal residence,” according to his lawyer.
So – we imagine the new narrative will be that everybody does it, so it’s no big deal – and nevermind all that ‘treason’ and ‘walls are closing in’ talk when it was just Trump. We’re sure many committees will be launched to get to the bottom of the ‘classified document problem.’
Developing…
end.
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report January 24, 2024 Issue 6933Independent View of the NewsFangs soared on Monday as pattern buyers poured into trading sardines because their results are about to appear. Microsoft reports today; Tesla reports tomorrow. Tesla rallied as much as 1.5% and Microsoft rallied as much as 2% on Monday. Forty percent of the DJIA reports results this week. Tech Ebullience Drives S&P 500 UP 12% from Its Low – BBG Marquee names like Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. are set to report results this week… pessimism has recently faded, however, as tech firms shift their focus to cost cuts and inflation shows signs of easing, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing over 2%… Now one thing to keep in mind — especially when it comes to corporate profits — is that stocks aren’t necessarily cheap at this stage. In fact, the S&P 500 may look expensive compared with historical levels considering that earnings estimates have been falling for months… Investors are failing to price in a backdrop of weakening economic data and earnings, according to Morgan Stanley’s strategist Michael Wilson… https://www.yahoo.com/now/asia-stocks-sentiment-buoyed-tech-221323028.html Elon Musk testifies at fraud trial that Saudis wanted to take Tesla private https://trib.al/nuxAtzv ‘420 price was not a joke.’ Elon Musk testifies again in trial over controversial tweet Tesla CEO Elon Musk took the stand again on Monday morning in a California courtroom to testify for a second day in the lawsuit over his controversial “funding secured” tweet from 2018. Musk, Tesla and company directors are facing the shareholder lawsuit over the tweet, in which the billionaire said that he was thinking about taking Tesla private for $420 a share and had “funding secured.”… https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/business/tesla-trial-funding-secured-elon-musk/index.html ESHs traded modestly lower in early Asian trading and then went inert until a modest rally on the European open appeared. ESHs quickly retreated into negative territory and tight range that developed during Asian trading. The rally for the NYSE open appeared right on schedule. After a modest dip on the NYSE open that push ESHs into negative territory, ESHs soared 61 handles from 9:31 ET to 11:20, ten minutes before the European close. After a 14-handle A-B-C decline, ESHs commenced another rally at 12:12 ET. ESHs hit a daily high of 4056.75 at 13:38 ET. ESHs then tumbled 38 handles by 14:53 ET. A moderate A-B-C rally then persisted into the close. The December LEI is -1.0%; -0.7% was consensus. This is the third consecutive -1.0 or lower reading. The last time 3 consecutive -1.0% readings appeared was in 2009. Keep buying stocks for the pivot! @jsblokland: Equity markets are pricing out a recession and Federal Reserve rate hikes at the same time. The Fed’s easing financial conditions problem has worsened and is likely to get even worse in the coming 7 to 8 sessions – and with the Fed in a blackout period, officials cannot talk down stocks. @OilandEnergy: Gasoline prices continue to climb for the fourth straight week, rising 32.7 cents over the last month as crude oil prices rise, data from AAA showed on Monday. (+1.53% on Monday) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Gasoline-Prices-Continue-To-Climb.html Bitcoin is +48.5% from its November low. The Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF is up 115% YTD. Gold is 2.5% from $2000 and is at its highest level since April 2021 – when Fed Funds were 0.50%! Guess what happens if the Fed goes dovish or pivots after Q1? Positive aspects of previous session Fangs soared; MSFT and TSLA report results this week Traders are extremely bullish Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined as much as 29/32, low at 8:48 ET Energy commodities rallied sharply, again. The higher equities go, the worse it gets for the Fed Ambiguous aspects of previous session If stocks soar into the Feb 1 FOMC, what will the Fed do? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4010.20 Previous session High/Low: 4039.31; 3971.64 DOJ Poised to Sue Google over Digital Ad Market Dominance DOJ could file Google antitrust lawsuit as soon as Tuesday https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/doj-poised-to-sue-google-over-digital-ad-market-dominance#xj4y7vzkg Today – Traders got too jiggy on Monday as evinced by the midday tumble. The usual late rally kept stocks buoyant. Traders are extremely bullish and believe there is nothing on the horizon that can thwart their buying and upward manipulation. Will the DOJ upset the Fang applecart by suing Google? ESHs are -3.25 at 20:15 ET in quiet trading. The BoJ conducted an expected JGB monetization. Expected earnings: HAL .67, DHI 1.25, TRV 3.40, GE 1.15, RTX 1.24, PCAR 2.21, MMM 2.36, LMT 7.40, DHR 2.49 JNJ 2.23, VZ 1.19, UNP 2.80, TXN 1.97, MSFT 2.30, COF 3.79 Expected economic data: Jan S&P Global US Mfg PMI 46, Services 45, Composite 47; Jan Richmond Fed Mfg Index -5 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3933; 100-day MA: 3864; 150-day MA: 3911; 200-day MA: 3966 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,592; 100-day MA: 32,237; 150-day MA: 32,842; 200-day MA: 32,363 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3889.17 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3987.47 triggers a sell signal FBI official who investigated Trump ties to Russia was just arrested for illegal ties to Russian oligarch – “ “As alleged, Mr. McGonigal and Mr. Shestakov, both U.S. citizens, acted on behalf of Deripaska and fraudulently used a U.S. entity to obscure their activity in violation of U.S. sanctions. After sanctions are imposed, they must be enforced equally against all U.S. citizens in order to be successful. There are no exceptions for anyone, including a former FBI official like Mr. McGonigal.”… https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-fbi-official-who-investigated-trump-ties-to-russia-was-just-arrested-for-illegal-ties-to-russian-oligarch @HansMahn>https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/press-release/file/1563516/download @DianaGlebova: What the White House Counsel said today on the call with reporters: 1. Biden’s team asked the DOJ to search his Delaware house. 2. Biden’s lawyers have kept him informed as material has been found. 3. White House Counsel will not televise Q&A with reporters due to “many” media figures seeking attention. 4. Just reiterating that the investigation is ongoing and that Biden is cooperating. Hillary Clinton went far beyond either Biden, Trump in mishandling of classified docs: Former DOJ official – Hillary…was running all the classified emails from the State Department through her —- that went to her through a private unsecured computer server… https://t.co/YcgXVnZuZl House Democratic leader’s daughter arrested for allegedly assaulting police officer, spray-painting monument – Boston police said an ‘officer was hit in the face and could be seen bleeding from the nose and mouth’… The Boston Police Department referred to the suspect as “Jared Dowell.” Clark has spoken in the past about how one of her children is non-binary… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-democratic-leaders-daughter-arrested-allegedly-assaulting-police-officer-spray-painting-monument Attacks against Catholic churches approach 300 incidents since May 2020: report https://www.foxnews.com/us/attacks-catholic-churches-approach-300-incidents-may-2020-report @GovRonDeSantis: Education is about the pursuit of truth, not the imposition of ideology or the advancement of a political agenda. (Should this be a moot point?) Now Aretha Franklin’s song Natural Woman is deemed OFFENSIVE to trans women: Outrage as ‘activists’ demand song is removed from Spotify and Apple Music https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11666981/Now-Aretha-Franklins-song-Natural-Woman-deemed-OFFENSIVE-trans-women.htm | |
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter interviewing Karen Kingston// a must view
I will see you TOMORROW
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