JAN 25//OUR BANKERS& SHORT SPECS CANNOT STOP GOLD’S MOMENTUM: GOLD UP $7.55 TO $1941.55 AFTER BEING BLASTED LAST NIGHT//SILVER ALSO RESPONED IN KIND UP 19 CENTS TO $23.84//PLATINUM FELL $15.10 TO $1041.90//PALLADIUM WAS BELTED $40.15 TO $1702.60//SCHIFF GOLD ON HUGE INDIAN SILVER DEMAND///COVID UPDATES:ROSS POMEROY ON WHY MILLENIALS ARE HAVING HUGE NUMBER OF STROKES AFTER BEING FULLY VACCINATED// VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: USA AND GERMANY DECIDE TO SEND ABRAMS 1 TANKS AND LEOPARD 2 TANKS TO UKRAINE//CHINA’S ECONOMY FALTERING DUE TO LACK OF SEMI CONDUCTOR CHIPS//

jan 25 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $7.55 at $1941.55

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.19  to $23.84

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1945.95

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.90

Bitcoin morning price:, 22683 DOWN 290 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22912 DOWN 67  dollars

Platinum price closing  $1042.90 DOWN $15.10

Palladium price; closing 1702.60 DOWN $40.15

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,605.03 UP $1591 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1569.98 DOWN 1.68 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1782.34 UP 3.77 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,933.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/24/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 01/26/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 52
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 178
661 C JP MORGAN 55 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 3
880 H CITIGROUP 186


TOTAL: 243 243

JPMorgan stopped 10/243

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT:   243 NOTICES FOR 24,300  OZ  or  0.7558 TONNES

total notices so far: 6327 contracts for 632,700 oz (19.679 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  987 for 4,965,000  oz



END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7.55

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES INTO THE GLD //

INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 19 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.3 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD!!!

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 521 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

IN THE LAST TWO DAY: A GAIN OF 22.3 MILLION OZ (WHERE ON EARTH WERE THEY GOING TO GET THAT QUANTITY OF METAL)

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 253 CONTRACTS TO 134,922 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  FOR THE PAST MONTH, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.21. AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 894 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0 OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 7.25 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GOOD  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 375 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  4,055. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 25,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 5.005 MILLION OZ + 7.25 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 12.255 MILLION OZ////  V)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –257

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 9340 contracts:   OR 46.700  MILLION OZ PER DAY. (583 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46.700 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   46.700 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED)

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 253 WITH OUR  $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 375 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF  4.055 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ. JUMP  /  //NEW STANDING RISES TO   5.005 MILLION OZ + EFR 7.25 MILLION = 12.255 MILLION OZ.  .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 894 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES

 WE HAD  7  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  35,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2565  CONTRACTS  TO 499,927 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -684 CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 2565 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG  $7.35 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 198 CONTRACTS OR 19,800 OZ  //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 20.227 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $7.35 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 737 OI CONTRACTS (2.297 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1828 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 499,927

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 737 CONTRACTS  WITH 2565 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1828 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 737 CONTRACTS OR 2.297 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1828 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2565) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 737 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) SMALL INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 2.1710 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 19,800 OZ /NEW STANDING 20.227 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)    FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :

61,664  CONTRACTS OR 6,166,400 OZ OR 191.800 TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3854 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES:191.800   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  191.800/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.40% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    191.800 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 253 CONTRACTS OI TO  134,922 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 375 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 375 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1219 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 519 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  375 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 628 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.14 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//CORN

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED    //Hang Seng CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed UP 95.82 PTS OR 0.35%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.29%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7794//    /Oil DOWN TO 80.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.04   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED  ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2565 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 499,927 DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.35

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON-ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1828 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 FEB: 1828 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1828   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 737 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1828 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2565 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  ADVANCE  IN PRICE OF $7.35. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG .

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING Jan  (20.227)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL  THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

JAN/2023: 20.227 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $7.35)  //// AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD ONLY A  SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 737 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  //    WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI  OF .1648 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (2.1710 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 19,800 oz  OR 0.5536 TONNES… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $7.35.  

WE HAD – 684 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 737 CONTRACTS OR 73700 OZ OR 2.297 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 238,560//fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  299,543///good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  JAN 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 25//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 12,024.474. oz

HSBC
374 kilobars





 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
32.15 oz
Brinks
one kilobar
No of oz served (contracts) today243 notice(s)
24,300 OZ
0.7558 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  176 contracts 
  17,600 oz
0.5536 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 6327  notices
632700
19.679 TONNES*
*new record for a January
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Brinks 32.15 oz

(one kilobar)

total deposits: 32.15 oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of HSBC:  12,024.474. oz (374 kilobars)

Total withdrawals:  12024.474 oz

total in tonnes: 0.374  tonnes

Adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 421 contracts having gained 95  contracts

We had 103 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 198  contracts or an additional 19,800 oz(0.6158 tonnes) will stand for delivery in this

very non active delivery month of January.  (queue jump). 

February lost  34,445  contacts  to 146,704  (looks like Feb. is going to be a huge delivery month

March gained 38 contracts to stand at 1182.

April gained 27,042 contracts up to 288,560

We had 243  notice(s) filed today for 133,757 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  55  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  243  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 10  notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6327 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JANUARY 421 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  243 x 100 oz per contract equals 650,300 OZ  OR 20.227 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this    non active month of January. This is a new record for gold standing in the month of January.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6327 x 100 oz+   (421 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (243} x 100 oz} which equals 650,300 oz standing OR 20.227 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JAN..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 20.227 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR METAL AND A NEW RECORD FOR ANY JANUARY MONTH )//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,910,035.089 OZ   59.41 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,314,858.672 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,020,481.037 OZ     (342.78 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,294,377.788 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,110446 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.37 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 25/2023//INITIAL JAN. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory586,499.848 oz
Brinks
CNT

Delaware
JPMorgan

































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory979,124.672 oz
CNT
Delaware

















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)1 contracts 
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1000 contracts
 (5,000,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT  599,916.022 oz

ii) Into Delaware:  379,208.650 oz

Total deposits:  979,124.672 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 150.528 million oz/293.182 million =51.23% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Delaware: 480.498 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 114,616.570 oz

iii) Out of CNT  35,451.520 oz

iv) Out of JPMorgan:  431,481.160 oz 

Total withdrawals; 586,499.748 oz

adjustments: 1/JPMorgan: dealer to customer//4,951.000 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 292,.89 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN/2023 OI: 8  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2  CONTRACT(S.). WE HAD 7 NOTICES

FILED ON TUESDAY SO  WE   GAINED  5 CONTRACT(S)  OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL STAND OVER HERE

FEB> LOST 23 CONTRACTS TO  194 CONTRACTS

March LOST 1488 CONTRACTS UP TO 109,536 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:7 for  35,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  56.523//fair  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 56,539 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1000 x  5,000 oz = 5,000,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN(8) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2023 contract month: 1000 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN (8 – number of notices served upon today (7) x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN. contract month equates 5.005 million oz  + 7.25 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 12.255MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:52,938// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 96,020 contracts ( very good/excellent)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/

DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES

DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 917.34  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.000 MILLION OZ

JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: WHAT!! A MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/( OCCURRED (LATE LAST NIGHT)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.70 MILLION OZ//

JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//

JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//

JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/

JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/

DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//

DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//

DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 521.000 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

A must read:

Indians have always been a hoarder of gold; now they are settingh records for importing silver.  They have imported more than 1/2 of annual production

(SchiffGold)

Indian Silver Imports Set Record In 2022

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 05:45 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

India’s love for gold is well-known. It is the second largest gold-consuming country in the world behind China. But Indians also have an affinity for silver.

Last year, silver imports into India hit a new record of  304 million ounces. That crushed the previous import high of 260 million ounces set in 2015.

More than half of the silver flowing into India is used in jewelry and silverware, and about one-third of India’s silver demand comes from investors in physical metal including silver bars and silver coins.

According to a report published by the Silver Institute, since 2010, Indian retail investors have bought around 730 million ounces of silver (22,700 tons). To put that into perspective, that represents about 90% of 2022’s total global silver mine production.

Over the last decade, the only years that silver investment demand fell in India were in 2016 and during the pandemic in 2020.

Silver investment in India was muted during the pandemic years but charted a healthy rebound in 2022. Investment in physical silver jumped to 79.4 million ounces last year, the highest level since 2015.

Indian silver demand is highest in rural and semi-urban areas. According to the Silver Institute report, this is a reflection of the relatively low entry price.

Furthermore, even fabricators and wholesalers buy silver as an investment during periods of low prices to be later converted into jewelry or silverware, or just to sell back when the price is high to take profits. Given the profile of investors, physical silver investment has so far been largely immune to competition from other asset classes, such as equities.”

The proliferation of silver exchange-traded products (ETP) in India has also spurred investment demand in the white metal.

The first Indian exchange-traded product was launched in September 2021. Currently, there are seven ETPs and five silver ETP Fund-of-Funds (FoFs, which invest in ETPs). As of the end of 2022, silver ETF holdings in India stood at an estimated 8 million ounces.

The Indian government’s crackdown on the gold market has boosted silver investment. According to the Silver Institute report, “The Indian government’s ongoing tough stance towards unaccounted money and the increased vigilance on gold transactions have benefited silver as investors have moved out of gold and in favor of silver.”

The Silver Institute report underscores the importance of India in the global silver market.

As the world’s sixth-largest economy and foremost silver fabricator, India also plays an essential role in silver and gold investment demand, historically recognized in that market as savings and investment assets, a reflection of the low penetration of banking and other financial products. Today, with new investment products available to Indian investors, India’s role in silver investment has the potential to grow even further.”

Increasing demand for silver in India is good news for the broader silver market.

Based on preliminary data, silver demand in 2022 is expected to chart a new all-time high of 1.21 billion ounces. That would be a 16% increase from 2021.

With mine production only projected to increase by 1%, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive annual deficit in 2022. At 194 million ounces, this will be a multi-decade high and four times the level seen in 2021.

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Jim Rickards is correct: huge demand for physical gold coming from central banks

(Jim Rickards)

Jim Rickards: Gold’s breakout is central banking’s doing, not inflation’s

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-24 11:51Section: Daily Dispatches

By James G. Rickards
The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Monday, January 23, 2023

Most assets have a poor record over the past year. Gold is one of the few assets that posted a gain — not a major gain, but a gain.

Gold has really taken off since late October, from below $1,630 to almost $1,930 today. That’s a major move. What’s going on?

You might want to argue that it has to do with inflation. The trouble with that argument is that (official) inflation has been coming down for the past few months. Meanwhile, gold seemed to massively underperform with respect to the very serious inflation we saw earlier last year.

So again, why are we seeing a gold spike now? The most likely answer lies with central banks and geopolitics.

Central banks as a whole, led by Russia and China, purchased 399 metric tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2022. (Fourth-quarter data are not yet available.)

That’s the most gold ever purchased by central banks in a single calendar quarter. It represents over 1% of all the gold held by all central banks combined.

If that pace continues or increases, it would amount to an increase of over 4% per year in central bank gold reserves. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://dailyreckoning.com/golds-breakout-its-not-the-inflation/

end

As we explained a few days ago China and Russia have been importing gold like crazy.  Switzerland is the world’s greatest refiners of gold

We now know that China and Russia have accumulated 50,000 tonnes for the former and 10,000 tonnes for the latter

(Reuters)

Switzerland sent 524 tonnes of gold to China last year, most since 2018

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-24 14:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
via Nasdaq.com, New York
Tuesday, January 24, 2023

LONDON — Swiss exports of gold to countries including China, Turkey, Singapore, and Thailand surged to multi-year highs last year, Swiss customs data showed today, as low prices boosted demand from consumers in Asia and the Middle East.

Rising interest rates caused many financial investors in Europe and North America to sell gold in 2022, releasing large amounts of metal from storage and pushing down prices.

This allowed bullion to flow to Asian markets, which are more focused on retail of jewellery and small gold bars to consumers who typically buy more when prices drop. Economic instability also spurred demand for gold, which many see as a safe investment, particularly in Turkey, where inflation has rocketed.

Switzerland is the world’s biggest gold refining and transit hub. It imports bullion from mines and storage centres around the world for processing and re-export. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://tinyurl.com/mrxubbh8

end

4. Other gold/silver commentaries

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:COPPER

.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

END

.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: XXX TO  CLOSED

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7794

SHANGHAI CLOSED 

HANG SENG CLOSED 

2. Nikkei closed UP 95.82 PTS OR 0.35%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  101.77 Euro FALLS TO 1.0867 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.4046!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129.69/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   XX-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.086%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.986%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.086…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.101//

3j Gold at $1925/35//silver at: 23.45  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  2/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.98//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and  86 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 129.69/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% RISES TO .446% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9215– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0015 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.425% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.581 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,82…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.3281 % DOWN 8 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Slide On Ugly Microsoft Outlook, Renewed War Escalation Fears

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 07:55 AM

US equity futures slumped on Wednesday after Microsoft started off the tech giants’ earnings parade by pulling off the old pump and dump, first jumping on Azure/Cloud results which beat estimates, but then erasing all gains and slumping during the company’s conference call after the company’s guidance disappointed, forecasting slower earnings and weaker demand (separately, hours later customers reported difficulties across multiple regions in accessing Microsoft 365 services, which the company attributed to networking issues). Earnings reports from companies such 3M, Boeing and chipmaker Texas Instruments also reinforced concerns about the health of corporate America and added to investors’ jitters as they await updates from the likes of Tesla and IBM. Fears also grew that a decision to send German and US tanks to Ukraine would provoke an escalation in the war.

As a result, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3% at 7:15 a.m. ET while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.8%, and traded right around 4,000. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, leading to mixed trading in Group-of-10 currencies. Treasuries edged higher, mirroring gains in most UK and German government bonds. Brent crude was little changed, while gold and Bitcoin fell.

Southwest promises refunds over snow chaos

In premarket trading, all eyes were on Microsoft which fell after saying revenue growth in its Azure cloud-computing business will decelerate in the current period and warned of a further slowdown in corporate software sales. Amazon and Alphabet also fell in sympathy, dragging other cloud stocks lower (Amazon.com -1.6% and Alphabet -1.1%; Snowflake -3.1%, Datadog -4.0%, Adobe  -1.4). Texas Instruments suffered its first sales decline since 2020 and gave a tepid forecast for the current quarter. Microsoft comprises about 12% of the Nasdaq 100, while Texas Instruments has a weighting of 1.4%. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH US) declines 4% after it was cut to neutral from overweight at Piper Sandler as demand for residential solar loans dipped more than the broker expected.
  • Precigen (PGEN US) drops 16% after an offering of shares priced at $1.75 apiece, representing a 20% discount to the last close. Proceeds to be used to fund the development of product candidates and for other general corporate purposes.
  • Block (SQ US) declines 4% as Oppenheimer cuts the stock to market perform from outperform, saying the firm looks less defensively-positioned than other payments names.
  • Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG US) falls 8.9% as the medical tech firm’s quarterly results are overshadowed by the company saying it won’t launch a new multiport robotic system in FY23, which analysts say removes a positive catalyst for the stock.
  • Capital One’s (COF US) slumps 3.3% following the release of results. Its earnings slightly missed expectations and analysts flag a quicker-than-expected acceleration in net charge-offs for the company.
  • Keep an eye on Stryker (SYK US) as it was initiated by KeyBanc at sector weight, which says the US med-tech firm’s valuation “reflects an above-average growth rate with some risk of mean reversion over time.”

A weak earnings outlook, fears of US recession as well as the potential escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war were all contributing to the market pullback, according to Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale. “The market is definitely worried about slowing earnings growth especially on tech, so there has been a sense the market wants to keep selling tech and the dollar,” Broux said. “But a huge tail risk now is what happens in Ukraine, if there is an escalation in the conflict and Europe gets drawn into the conflict.”

While today’s drop will hurt, the Nasdaq 100 Index has surged 8.3% this year, on track for the best January since 2019. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot away from its hawkish policy have aided the rally, though strategists are increasingly preferring non-US equities this year as they hunt for cheaper valuations and grow concerned about a US recession. Investors are now parsing earnings statements for the impact of the economic slowdown on results.

“The main focus is clearly on US big tech,” said Fabio Caldato, a partner at Olympia Wealth Management. “How can those bulls in a China shop reassure the financial community? Just showing growth. We remain very cautious on this aspect and prefer to underweight the whole sector.”

Next, all eyes will be on Tesla when the electric-car maker reports results after the market closes on Wednesday. Investors will focus on demand, profitability and 2023’s expected pace of deliveries. They are also keen to learn whether Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk will name a new CEO of Twitter.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.6% and on course for its first back-to-back declines of the year. Shares in major European software firms such as SAP SE and Sage Group Plc. feeling the heat from Microsoft and Dutch chip-tool maker ASML Holding NV falling after posting a profit miss. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • EasyJet shares rise as much as 12% after the budget carrier reported 1Q revenue that was 8% ahead of consensus and projected strong trends will continue into the second quarter
  • Aviva shares gain as much as 3.5%, the most since October, with JPMorgan saying the general insurance underwriting update from the group will provide some reassurance
  • Caverion shares rise as much as 4.1% after the Bain-led consortium increased its offer for the Finnish building-maintenance-services firm following a rival bid from private equity firm Triton
  • Hill & Smith rises as much as 2.2% after delivering an unscheduled trading update guiding to operating profit above expectations, which Jefferies describes as “pleasing to read”
  • ASML shares fall as much as 2.3%, trimming a recent rally, after the Dutch chip-tool giant’s profitability target missed higher Street expectations despite its bullish sales growth forecast for 2023
  • Netcompany shares plunge as much as 23%, the most on record, after the Danish IT consultant’s Ebitda margin guidance for 2023 missed expectations
  • Aroundtown shares dropped as much as 7.4% after Societe Generale cut its recommendation to sell from buy as part of a more cautious view on REITs
  • Gjensidige shares fall as much as 9.9% with analysts saying the Norwegian insurer’s results were weak across the board and that the lack of a special dividend will disappoint

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a fourth straight daily gain as tech stocks rose amid lighter trading volumes and holidays in China and Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.4% to its highest since early June. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance as Korea traders returned from the Lunar New Year holidays. “With the global growth outlook narrative shifting more toward a soft landing rather than recession, we are seeing the tech sector come back in favor for now,” said Charu Chanana, strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “But caution is warranted as inflation risks are back on the horizon with China’s reopening.” 

Tech investors also assessed Microsoft’s second-quarter earnings release, which showed profit beat estimates although the company gave a downbeat revenue forecast. Traders are now turning their attention to Tesla’s result announcement later Wednesday. Singapore stocks led gains in Asia Pacific alongside their South Korean peers.

Japanese stocks rose as investors continued to assess the overall economy and shifted their focus to upcoming earnings. The Topix rose 0.4% to 1,980.69 at the close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 27,395.01. The yen weakened 0.2% to 130.44 per dollar. Keyence contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 1.7%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,342 rose and 699 fell, while 120 were unchanged.  “Global economic recession risk has declined sharply as China and Europe demand is expected to improve this year,” said Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities Korea. “Overall tech demand including capex investments of global corporations isn’t slowing down much.”

Stocks in India fell ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts on Wednesday. Adani Group shares were among major decliners after activist investor Hindenburg Research shorted the group. The S&P BSE Sensex slid 0.9% to 60,404.47, as of 11:09 a.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 1%. All but one of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-indexes declined, led by a gauge of service industry stocks.  HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.8%. All but three of 30 shares in the Sensex dropped.  All stocks controlled by Adani Group fell after Hindenburg Research accused firms owned by Asia’s richest man of “brazen” market manipulation and accounting fraud. Representatives for the Adani Group didn’t immediately respond to calls and emails seeking comment, saying the company would issue a statement in response later.

Meanwhile, Australian stocks dropped after data showed that domestic inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 32 years in the final three months of 2022. Trading volumes have been light in Asia this week as markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam remain closed for the new-year break. A blackout period on communications ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting next week has supported risk appetite, with the MSCI Asia gauge up about 25% from an October low

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index was little changed even as the greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers, with notable outperformance in the Aussie dollar after CPI surprised to the upside. Kiwi dollar is the weakest among the G-10’s.

  • The pound fell for a third day and gilts rose, led by the belly, after data showed UK factories’ fuel and raw material costs rose at the slowest pace in almost a year. Input prices rose 16.5% in December from a year ago, down from a peak of 24.6% in June. Money markets went to fully price in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year
  • The euro fell a first day in six against the US dollar, though moves were limited to a narrow range. Bunds advanced, outperforming Italian notes.
  • The Canadian dollar was little changed while overnight volatility in dollar- loonie rose to its highest level since Jan. 12 as traders position for the Bank of Canada policy decision. The implied breakeven of around 84 pips may be understating the possibility of outsized swings in the pair.
  • Australian dollar rose against all of its G-10 peers, to trade at the highest level since August versus the greenback, and the nation’s bonds tumbled after 4Q inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 32 years in the final three months of 2022. The outcome of 7.8% from a year earlier exceeded forecasts of 7.6% and prompted money markets to price in an interest-rate hike at next month’s central bank meeting.
  • Kiwi dollar was the worst G-10 performer as New Zealand inflation held near three-decade high at 7.2% but undershoot RBNZ’s forecast.

In rates, the risk-averse tone benefited bonds, with UK and German 10-year yields falling by 8bps and 6bps respectively. Treasuries also rose as the Treasury curve bull-flattened modestly and as futures extending through Tuesday’s highs, following wider gains across gilts after soft UK factory price inflation data.  Treasury yields richer by around 2bp from belly out to long-end with 10-year at 3.42%, lagging gilts by almost 4bp in the sector after sharp rally across UK bonds. The US auction cycle resumes at 1pm with $43b 5-year sale, before Thursday’s $35b 7-year notes; strong 2- year auction Tuesday traded through the WI by 1.3bp.

In commodities, oil prices are little changed with WTI hovering around $80.10. Spot gold falls roughly 0.6% to trade near $1,926/oz

Bitcoin is back below the USD 23k mark, though remains just above the WTD trough set on Monday at USD 22.3k.

On today’s calendar, we get data on US mortgage application (up 7.0%, vs up 27.9% last week). The EIA will release figures on oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. The US will sell $24 billion of two-year floating-rate notes and $36 billion of 17-week bills at 11:30 a.m., followed by $43 billion of five-year notes at 1 p.m. From central banks, the main highlight will be the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision. Finally, earnings releases include Tesla, Boeing, IBM, AT&T and Abbott Laboratories.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,011.25
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 169.09
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 553.07
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,395.01
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,980.69
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 22,044.65
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,264.81
  • Sensex down 1.3% to 60,174.06
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,468.30
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,428.57
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 451.94
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.11%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0884
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $86.56/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,930.94
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.93

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • A gauge of German business expectations by the Ifo institute rose to 86.4 in January from 83.2 the previous month. That’s the fourth consecutive improvement and a bigger increase than economists had anticipated. A measure of current conditions slipped, however
  • European natural gas headed for a third day of declines as ample supplies and reserves, along with the return of milder weather, help to ease the region’s energy crisis
  • With the Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 interest-rate decision a week away, traders in the options market are contemplating a scenario in which the rate hike it’s expected to deliver ends up being the last one of the tightening cycle
  • Japan’s broken bond market continued to throw up anomalies with central bank ownership of some government debt exceeding the amount outstanding, according to its latest data
  • Japan’s government cut its monthly view of the economy for the first time since February 2022, reflecting gathering concerns over the outlook for the global economy

A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after the indecisive performance stateside owing to the varied data releases and geopolitical tensions, while the region also digested firmer-than-expected inflation data from Australia and New Zealand. ASX 200 failed to sustain an initial foray above 7,500 with the index subdued by hot CPI data which printed its highest since 1990 and boosted the market pricing for the RBA to continue with its hiking cycle next month. Nikkei 225 gradually edged higher with trade uneventful in the absence of any pertinent drivers although Dai Nippon Printing outperformed after Elliot Management built a stake in the Co. of slightly under 5%. KOSPI was among the biggest gainers on return from the Lunar New Year holiday with the index also driven by strength in top-weighted stock Samsung Electronics.

Top Asian News

  • US Secretary of State Blinken is likely to warn China against aiding Russia when visiting Beijing, according to SCMP.
  • Australian PM Albanese said there is increased engagement at different levels between Australian and Chinese agencies, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea ordered a 5-day lockdown of its capital Pyongyang due to increasing cases of an unspecified respiratory illness, according to South Korean-based NK News.
  • Japan lowers its overall economic view in January; first time in 11 months.
  • Japanese Gov’t official, citing BoJ’s Kuroda, says the BoJ will resolutely keep monetary environment easy; BoJ aims to regain market functionality by tweaking YCC operations and maintaining an easy monetary environment.

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, after a sluggish post-MSFT start to the session and thereafter a further waning in the general risk tone. Within Europe, a strong update from ASML has been overshadowed by the MSFT pressure, while the likes of Ryanair and IAG are buoyed by easyJet. Stateside, futures are all in the red with the NQ -1.2% lagging and the ES Mar’23 below 4k and its 200-DMA at 3999, to a 3996.5 session trough. NYSE said it is thoroughly examining the glitch and that the exchange ended Tuesday with a normal close, while a regular open is expected on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Top European News

  • German Economy Minister sees 2023 German GDP at 0.2% (vs -0.4% in Autumn forecast); 2023 inflation seen at 6% (vs prev. 7%); “we do not see signs of marked recession as feared by many observers”. In-fitting with earlier reports via the likes of Bloomberg and Reuters in recent sessions.
  • French Regulator Set to Provisionally Close Government EDF Offer
  • Traders Reverse Course to Bet BOE Will Cut Rates Before Year-End
  • UK’s Growth Potential Falls, Reducing Hunt’s Room for Tax Cuts
  • Renault Gets Two Upgrades, Shares Rise as Nissan Deal Nears
  • Ukraine Latest: Allies to Send Tanks; Kishida Pressed to Visit
  • UK Parliament Seeks Power to Scrutinize Finance Regulators

Notable US Headlines

  • US House Speaker McCarthy said they need to have a responsible debt ceiling and called for eliminating wasteful spending, while he added debt is the greatest threat to the nation and that President Biden needs to stop playing politics on the debt ceiling.
  • US President Biden is close to naming the next National Economic Council head, Fed Vice Chair Brainard has emerged as the top contender, according to Washington Post sources; current NEC Director Deese is expected to leave soon, no decision made yet.
  • US Senator Manchin is to reportedly introduce a bill to delay EV tax credit due to disagreements over how to implement the programme, according to WSJ.

FX

  • The DXY has spent the morning in close proximity to the 102.00 mark and has most recently extended to fresh session highs of 102.12 amid a general decline in the risk tone.
  • AUD is the standout outperformer after much hotter-than-expected CPI while the NZD was only able to derive fleeting support from its own inflation data, at best AUD/USD and NZD/USD above 0.71 and 0.65 respectively.
  • JPY has settled down somewhat after Tuesday’s pronounced action and was relatively resilient to Japan downgrading its economic assessment for the first time in almost a year.
  • The aforementioned decline in sentiment that bolstered the USD did so at the expense of Cable and EUR/USD which moved below and further below 1.23 and 1.09 respectively.

Fixed Income

  • Core EGBs have continued to extend with the Bund comfortably above 139.00, though the upside seemingly stalled after a brief breach of Fib resistance.
  • An easing/pullback that was perhaps spurred by mixed German auction results; though, benchmarks remain elevated overall with Gilts once again outperforming and closer to 106.00 vs 105.08 low (current high 105.79).
  • Stateside, USTs are firmer though lagging their EZ peers a touch ahead of a USD 43bln 5yr outing.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures trade with no firm direction in early European hours, similar to yesterday’s price action, as market participants await the next catalyst for the complex.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.4mln (exp. +1.0mln), Cushing +3.9mln, Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. +1.8mln), Distillate -1.9mln (exp. -1.1mln)
  • US Treasury issued a license allowing Trinidad and Tobago to develop Venezuela’s Dragon offshore gas field.
  • Spot gold and base metals have been impacted by the general risk tone with the yellow metal unable to glean any haven support as the USD remains firm.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia is readying for new aggression and that Ukraine will prevent further Russian actions, while he added Russia is intensifying its offensive towards Ukraine’s Bakhmut.
  • Russian Ambassador to the US said Washington’s possible deliveries of tanks to Ukraine would be a blatant provocation and it is clear Washington is trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us, according to Reuters.
  • EU ambassadors have now formally given green light to roll over all the EU’s economic sanctions on Russia for an additional six months, via Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak.
  • German government is to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Germany is to approve re-export of Leopard 2 tanks.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, 7.0%, prior 27.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There’s been a little bit of a bias towards risk-off sentiment over the last 24 hours, thanks partly to some weaker-than-expected earnings releases that added to growing concerns about a potential US recession. The S&P 500 (-0.07%) came off its 7-week high from the previous day, oil prices took a sharp turn lower, and sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. After the close, Microsoft did report better-than-expected earnings due to strength from their cloud-services business (Azure) even as their consumer businesses faltered. Their shares initially traded 4.5% higher before reverting late last night and are now down -1% in after-market trading after news came out during the earnings call that Azure sales could slow in Q1. S&P and NASDAQ futures are -0.46% and -0.78% down respectively as I type.

Those small equity losses in the normal trading session came as the flash PMIs for the US showed the economy still in contractionary territory at the start of the year. To be fair, the numbers were a bit better than expected, but even with the upside surprise the composite PMI was only at 46.6 (vs. 46.4 expected), which is its 7th consecutive month beneath the expansionary 50-mark. Looking at the details, the US PMIs also showed that input price rises had increased in January after 7 months of moderating, so that adds to some other indicators so far this quarter suggesting price pressures might be a bit more resilient than thought. The more negative tone from the data was then cemented by the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index, which came in at a post-Covid low of -11 (vs. -5 expected).

Although the US numbers continued to point towards contraction, there was some better news from the Euro Area as the flash composite PMI came in at 50.2 (vs. 49.8 expected). That’s the first time it’s been above 50 since June, and came amidst upside surprises in both the services (50.7 vs. 50.1 expected) and manufacturing PMIs (48.8 vs. 48.5 expected) as well. The readings offer yet more evidence that the European economy has been faring better over recent months, echoing the rise in consumer confidence we saw the previous day.

With all this positive news out of Europe lately, our economists updated their forecasts yesterday (link here) and are no longer expecting a recession in 2023 as flagged in our German upgrade two weeks ago. That comes amidst falling gas prices, lower inflation, and declining uncertainty, which means our economists now expect the Euro Area to grow by +0.5% in 2023. They’ve also lowered their headline inflation outlook for 2023 to 5.8%, and now see 2024 at just 1.8%. Nevertheless, they don’t think the ECB can take their foot off the hawkish pedal just yet, since an improved growth outlook and stronger domestic demand raises the threat of more persistent underlying inflation.

Speaking of the ECB, yesterday saw a fresh round of commentary as the Governing Council debate how long to keep hiking rates by 50bps. On the one hand, Lithuania’s Simkus said that “there’s a strong case for staying on the course that’s been set for the coming meetings of 50 basis-point increases.” However the Executive Board’s Pannetta, one of the biggest doves on the council, said that beyond the next meeting in February “any unconditional guidance … would depart from our data-driven approach”. For now, investors are continuing to price in two 50bp moves as the most likely outcome, with +92.1bps worth of hikes priced over the next couple of meetings.

As this debate was ongoing, sovereign bonds rallied strongly on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -5.7bps to 3.45%. That was led by a sharp decline in real yields, which fell -7.6bps on the day. However, near-term policy expectations from the Fed were little changed ahead of their meeting a week from today, and the terminal rate priced for June was down just -0.1bps, whilst the 2yr Treasury yield fell -1.7bps to 4.21%. In Asia 10yr Treasury yields have moved back +1.29bps higher as we go to press. Back to yesterday, and there was a stronger rally in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.1bps), OATs (-6.9bps) and BTPs (-11.1bps) all seeing a sharp decline.

As mentioned at the top, it was a bit of a battle for equities, with the major indices struggling to gain much traction after their recent rally. That left both the S&P 500 (-0.07%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.24%) with modest declines, although that was partly down to a drag from energy stocks after prices took a significant hit yesterday. For instance, Brent crude oil prices (-2.34%) had their worst day in nearly three weeks, falling to $86.13/bbl, whilst natural gas prices in Europe fell -11.71% to €58.27 per megawatt-hour as they closed in on the lows from last week. In the US, one of the worst performing industries for the S&P was Media & Entertainment (-1.02%), whose losses were partially due to the -2.09% pullback by Alphabet as the US Department of Justice did indeed sue the ad-giant under US anti-trust laws. This is the second such suit and a resolution could take years according to legal experts cited by Bloomberg.

Asian equity markets are continuing with their winning streak even with US futures lower. As I type, the KOSPI (+1.27%) is surging as trading has resumed after the Lunar New year holiday while the Nikkei (+0.43%) has rebounded after opening lower in morning trade. Markets in China and Hong Kong remain closed for the holidays. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.12%) is in negative territory following disappointing inflation data out from Australia.

Australian inflation rose to +8.4% y/y in December from +7.3% in November while surpassing market expectations for a rise of 7.7%. With inflation pressures broadening, its implication for policy rates pushed 10yr bond yields sharply higher (+5.2 bps) to settle at 3.52%, as we go to print. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (+0.75%) is trading higher, hitting a 5-month high against the US dollar to trade at $0.7099.

Back to yesterday’s data, and the flash PMI releases were the main data highlight, but we did also get the UK’s public finance statistics for December. That showed public sector net borrowing (ex-banking groups) at £27.4bn (vs. £17.3bn expected), which was driven by more spending on energy support along with higher debt interest. Meanwhile, the latest flash PMIs from the UK weren’t as optimistic as their counterparts in the Euro Area, with the composite PMI falling to 47.8 (vs. 48.8 expected). That’s the lowest reading on that measure in two years, back when the economy went into lockdown again at the start of 2021.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Ifo’s business climate indicator for January from Germany. From central banks, the main highlight will be the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision. Finally, earnings releases include Tesla, Boeing, IBM, AT&T and Abbott Laboratories.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Sentiment slips with the ES Mar’23 below the 200-DMA, DXY bid but USTs off best – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, after a sluggish post-MSFT start to the session and thereafter a further waning in the general risk tone.
  • Stateside, futures are all in the red with the NQ -1.2% lagging and the ES Mar’23 below 4k and its 200-DMA at 3999, to a 3996.5 session trough.
  • DXY has benefitted from the decline in sentiment, to the detriment of GBP and EUR while AUD outperforms post-CPI.
  • Core fixed benchmarks have continued to extend though with upside in Bunds capped by technicals/supply, USTs lagging in comparison pre-5yr supply.
  • Crude benchmarks are little changed overall, relatively resilient to the above tone, while the USD has capped any haven allure for spot gold.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Policy Announcement, BoJ SOO, Supply from the US. Earnings from AT&T, Tesla, Boeing, IBM & Abbott. Holiday in China (Lunar New Year).

 View the full premarket movers and news report.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, after a sluggish post-MSFT start to the session and thereafter a further waning in the general risk tone.
  • Within Europe, a strong update from ASML has been overshadowed by the MSFT pressure, while the likes of Ryanair and IAG are buoyed by easyJet.
  • Stateside, futures are all in the red with the NQ -1.2% lagging and the ES Mar’23 below 4k and its 200-DMA at 3999, to a 3996.5 session trough.
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.32 (exp. 2.30), Revenue 52.70bln (exp. 52.99bln), Co. Intelligent Cloud revenue USD 21.51bln (exp. 21.43bln), while it stated that Azure and other cloud revenue growth of 31% was driven by strong demand for consumption-based services. However, it noted growth is to slow in its commercial business for the rest of FY23 and that FY operating margins are expected to decrease around 2% Y/Y excluding Q2 charge and a favourable impact from the change in accounting method. -2.4% in the pre-market
  • ASML (ASML NA) Q4 2022 (EUR): Revenue 6.43bln (exp. 6.38bln). Net 4.29bln (exp. 4.25bln). Sees Q1 2023 net sales 6.1-6.5bln (exp. 6.07bln); ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2022 of EUR 5.80/shr. Click here for more detail. -1.5% in the pre-market
  • NYSE said it is thoroughly examining the glitch and that the exchange ended Tuesday with a normal close, while a regular open is expected on Wednesday, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The DXY has spent the morning in close proximity to the 102.00 mark and has most recently extended to fresh session highs of 102.12 amid a general decline in the risk tone.
  • AUD is the standout outperformer after much hotter-than-expected CPI while the NZD was only able to derive fleeting support from its own inflation data, at best AUD/USD and NZD/USD above 0.71 and 0.65 respectively.
  • JPY has settled down somewhat after Tuesday’s pronounced action and was relatively resilient to Japan downgrading its economic assessment for the first time in almost a year.
  • The aforementioned decline in sentiment that bolstered the USD did so at the expense of Cable and EUR/USD which moved below and further below 1.23 and 1.09 respectively.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core EGBs have continued to extend with the Bund comfortably above 139.00, though the upside seemingly stalled after a brief breach of Fib resistance.
  • An easing/pullback that was perhaps spurred by mixed German auction results; though, benchmarks remain elevated overall with Gilts once again outperforming and closer to 106.00 vs 105.08 low (current high 105.79).
  • Stateside, USTs are firmer though lagging their EZ peers a touch ahead of a USD 43bln 5yr outing.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures trade with no firm direction in early European hours, similar to yesterday’s price action, as market participants await the next catalyst for the complex.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.4mln (exp. +1.0mln), Cushing +3.9mln, Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. +1.8mln), Distillate -1.9mln (exp. -1.1mln)
  • US Treasury issued a licence allowing Trinidad and Tobago to develop Venezuela’s Dragon offshore gas field.
  • Spot gold and base metals have been impacted by the general risk tone with the yellow metal unable to glean any haven support as the USD remains firm.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE DATA

  • German Ifo Business Climate New (Jan) 90.2 vs. Exp. 90.2 (Prev. 88.6); there probably will not be a recession but GDP will probably shrink slightly in Q1.
  • Inflationary pressures are easing with the balance of companies wanting to increase prices falling to 35.4 from 40.1, companies export expectations have somewhat brightened and cautious optimism is spreading.
  • German Ifo Expectations New (Jan) 86.4 vs. Exp. 85.0 (Prev. 83.2); Current Conditions New (Jan) 94.1 vs. Exp. 95.0 (Prev. 94.4)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • German Economy Minister sees 2023 German GDP at 0.2% (vs -0.4% in Autumn forecast); 2023 inflation seen at 6% (vs prev. 7%); “we do not see signs of marked recession as feared by many observers”. In-fitting with earlier reports via the likes of Bloomberg and Reuters in recent sessions.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US House Speaker McCarthy said they need to have a responsible debt ceiling and called for eliminating wasteful spending, while he added debt is the greatest threat to the nation and that President Biden needs to stop playing politics on the debt ceiling.
  • US President Biden is close to naming the next National Economic Council head, Fed Vice Chair Brainard has emerged as the top contender, according to Washington Post sources; current NEC Director Deese is expected to leave soon, no decision made yet.
  • US Senator Manchin is to reportedly introduce a bill to delay EV tax credit due to disagreements over how to implement the programme, according to WSJ.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia is readying for new aggression and that Ukraine will prevent further Russian actions, while he added Russia is intensifying its offensive towards Ukraine’s Bakhmut.
  • Russian Ambassador to the US said Washington’s possible deliveries of tanks to Ukraine would be a blatant provocation and it is clear Washington is trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us, according to Reuters.
  • EU ambassadors have now formally given green light to roll over all the EU’s economic sanctions on Russia for an additional six months, via Radio Free Europe’s Jozwiak.
  • German government is to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Germany is to approve re-export of Leopard 2 tanks.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is back below the USD 23k mark, though remains just above the WTD trough set on Monday at USD 22.3k.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mixed after the indecisive performance stateside owing to the varied data releases and geopolitical tensions, while the region also digested firmer-than-expected inflation data from Australia and New Zealand.
  • ASX 200 failed to sustain an initial foray above 7,500 with the index subdued by hot CPI data which printed its highest since 1990 and boosted the market pricing for the RBA to continue with its hiking cycle next month.
  • Nikkei 225 gradually edged higher with trade uneventful in the absence of any pertinent drivers although Dai Nippon Printing outperformed after Elliot Management built a stake in the Co. of slightly under 5%.
  • KOSPI was among the biggest gainers on return from the Lunar New Year holiday with the index also driven by strength in top-weighted stock Samsung Electronics.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • US Secretary of State Blinken is likely to warn China against aiding Russia when visiting Beijing, according to SCMP.
  • Australian PM Albanese said there is increased engagement at different levels between Australian and Chinese agencies, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea ordered a 5-day lockdown of its capital Pyongyang due to increasing cases of an unspecified respiratory illness, according to South Korean-based NK News.
  • Japan lowers its overall economic view in January; first time in 11 months.
  • Japanese Gov’t official, citing BoJ’s Kuroda, says the BoJ will resolutely keep monetary environment easy; BoJ aims to regain market functionality by tweaking YCC operations and maintaining an easy monetary environment.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian CPI QQ (Q4) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.8%); YY (Q4) 7.8% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 7.3%)
  • Australian CPI YY (Dec) 8.4% vs Exp. 7.6% (Prev. 7.3%)
  • New Zealand CPI QQ (Q4) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 2.2%); YY (Q4) 7.2% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.2%)
  • RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index (Q4) 5.8% (Prev. 5.4%)

1.c WEDNESDAY/  TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED    //Hang Seng CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed UP 95.82 PTS OR 0.35%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.29%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7794//    /Oil DOWN TO 80.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.04   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED  ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

3c CHINA /

CHINA/ECONOMY

China’s economy not doing too good: their chip sales inside China are plunging which is causing manufacturing to suffer. The USA has refused to sell

semi conductor chips to China.

(EpochTimes)

Chip Sales Plunge In China, Buffeting Global Industry

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Anne Zhang and Lynn Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Chip sales in China have tumbled at a whopping rate, as productivity in the semiconductor-related sector has contracted dramatically, indicating that the country’s manufacturing industry is shrinking, according to the latest industrial report.

The Washington-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) released data on Jan. 9 indicating that compared to the same period in 2021, China’s chip sales plummeted by 21.1 percent in November of 2022. Meanwhile, in the United States, chip sales rose by 5.2 percent; sales in Europe increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year; and sales in Japan went up by 1.2 percent.Workers producing LED chips at a factory in Huaian, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province, on June 16, 2020. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

China’s Industrial Recession Buffets Global Data

According to SIA statistics, in 2021, China alone made up $192.3 billion, or 34.6 percent, of $555.9 billion in global semiconductor industry sales, ranking first in the world.

As the world’s largest chip market, the Chinese market’s sharp decline has dragged down the yield of the global industry, with November 2022 seeing global semiconductor industry sales slide to $45.5 billion. That is 2.9 percent less than the previous month and 9.2 percent less than the same period of the previous year, respectively.

“Global semiconductor sales decreased in November [2022], largely due to market cyclicality and macroeconomic headwinds,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO of SIA.

The SIA represents most U.S. semiconductor companies and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. semiconductor companies.

Chip Imports Decline

China’s chip imports have faced a serious decline since last October when the United States imposed sanctions on Chinese semiconductor companies.

Chinese customs data showed that China imported 40.5 billion integrated circuits in November 2022, a 25.3 percent drop from 54.22 billion units in November 2021.

Last October, the United States issued a semiconductor and equipment export control order against the Chinese Communist regime. The new ban restricts exports to China of logic chips below 14/16 nanometres, DRAM memory chips below 18 nanometres, and NAND flash memory chips above 128 layers, as well as related manufacturing equipment.

The move could be a heavy blow to a wide range of manufacturing areas, including automobiles, mobile communications equipment, and computers.

Industry Output Declines

In November 2022, China’s output of microcomputer equipment plunged by 27.9 percent; and mobile communication handheld devices dropped 13 percent, including a 19.8 percent decline in the production of smartphones from the same period last year, according to data released by China’s Statistical Bureau.

In addition, the manufacturing of railroads, ships, aerospace, and other transportation equipment, computer, communication, and electronic equipment, and general equipment manufacturing declined 0.9–2.9 percent year-over-year.

Manufacturing Prospects Fall to Record Low

A Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing and service sectors, according to industrial statistics methods. This gloomy data was seen for most of last year in China.

China’s Bureau of Statistics published a report on Dec. 31 saying that China’s PMI remained under 50 for most of last year, with the exception of January, February, June, and September, which were slightly higher than 50. In the fourth quarter of last year, China’s PMI fell sharply for three consecutive months, with its December PMI hitting a record low of 47.

Read more here…

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

GERMANY/UKRAINE//USA/WEST/RUSSIA

GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER just said the quiet part out loud on Ukraine:   she sated that the allies are fighting a war against Russia.

(zerohedge)

German Foreign Minister Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud On Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 01:09 PM

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock bluntly stated in fresh remarks that Western allies are fighting a war against Russia. The remarks came during a debate at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on Tuesday amid discussions over sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

While Baerbock’s words were largely ignored in mainstream media, a number of pundits on social media noted with alarm that the German foreign minister just essentially declared war on Russia.

Ironically other German officials have long sought to emphasize their country is not a party to the conflict, fearing uncontrollable escalation.

Contradicting this official stance, Baerbock said the quiet part out loud, and introduced the comments with: “And therefore I’ve said already in the last days – yes, we have to do more to defend Ukraine. Yes, we have to do more also on tanks.”

And that’s when she asserted: “But the most important and the crucial part is that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in Europe, because we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.”

Interestingly, both Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his former defense minister who recently resigned, Christine Lambrecht, have been seen as weak on arming Ukraine – repeatedly declaring an unwillingness to get pulled deeper into the proxy war aspect to the conflict. But now it seems the more hawkish Baerbock is willing to at this point be much more open with the reality of what’s happening.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova seized on the comments, saying this is yet more proof that the Western allies were planning a war on Russia all along…

“If we add this to Merkel’s revelations that they were strengthening Ukraine and did not count on the Minsk agreements, then we are talking about a war against Russia that was planned in advance. Don’t say later that we didn’t warn you,” Zakharova said.

One thing is for sure, things are moving fast…

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA/

We knew that this would happen: Russia is furious that the uSA and Germany are sending advance tanks to Ukraine. One small problem, who is going to man the tanks and it will take at least 6 months to teach them

(zerohedge0

Russia Furious Over ‘Absurd, Extremely Dangerous’ Decision To Send Tanks To Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 11:05 AM

As expected, Russia is furious over the decision of the United States and Germany to authorize Western-manufactured advanced tanks for Ukrainian forces, calling it “extremely dangerous” and pointing out the unprecedented decision blows past Kremlin “red lines”.

The Russian Embassy in Berlin communicated to the German government that the dangerous move “takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation.” The statement asserted that it “contradicts the statements of German politicians about the unwillingness of the FRG [Federal Republic of Germany] to be drawn into it [the war]. Unfortunately, this happens over and over again.”Via ReutersAccording to the latest media statements by US officials, the Pentagon is preparing plans to send approximately 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a $400 million deal. While the official White House announcement of the tank transfer is likely imminent, it’s unlikely the tanks will be seen on the battlefield anytime soon.

It takes multiple months to over six months or more to train crews to effectively operate the Abrams. The same could also go for Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks which will be provided. Both are considered sophisticated main battle tanks.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed his country’s decision to send 14 tanks at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Crucially Germany will also allow other countries to send theirs, which is likely to provide the bulk of Leopard tanks. According to the latest from Politico:

Germany and its European partners plan to “quickly” send two Leopard 2 tank battalions to Ukraine — suggesting about 80 vehicles — the government in Berlin announced Wednesday, adding that Germany would provide one company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks “as a first step.”

Other countries likely to send Leopards to the war against Russia include Poland, Spain, Norway and Finland.

Alongside the Abrams, the initial transfers is also expected to include special recovery vehicles which assist in repair of tanks on the battlefield, or else which are capable of removing stalled tanks. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that this development shows that Ukraine and the West “has unequivocally stated its desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.” A ministry statement echoed his words in the following:

“There is a hybrid war going on against our country, which Foreign Minister [Sergei] Lavrov spoke about in detail just recently. Arguments about the red lines are a thing of the past,” the foreign ministry told state news agency Tass, in comments translated by Google.

“The United States has unequivocally stated its desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. It is impossible not to notice the reality,” the ministry added, Tass reported.

And separately Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov underscored the “absurdity” of plan by NATO allies to send tanks. He said in a Wednesday briefing, “now we can only state that there are currently no prospects for entering the diplomatic path.”

“Unfortunately, we see a lot of manifestations of the conviction of a number of politicians, a number of experts, the military and so on, who believe that it is by continuing the war that the security of the continent can be ensured. This is an absurd belief,” Peskov added.

Specifically addressing the US and German tank escalation, he said: “I am convinced that many experts understand the absurdity of this idea too. It’s just that, in terms of technological aspects, this plan is quite a failure, and most importantly, it is a clear overestimation of the potential that it will add to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

This is a must read!!

The Most Egregious Mistake — Strategic Culture

Robert Hryniak6:22 PM (5 hours ago)
to

Over decades of time, we have seen outright thievery by a corrupt and crooked Federal Reserve acting as the referee of what is called the Reserve Currency; the USD exerting American hegemony by requiring settlement of trade in USD. And the world has watched the Enforcer called Military punish all those who resisted the call, like Libya or Iraq into submission. And with such historical ignorance of yesterday’s empires led to the creation of what is occurring today.

This atmosphere has allowed the fertile growth of fanatical Neocons like Kagan, Nuland, Kristol and many others to espouse and direct actions of State well beyond understanding or capability or capacity to manage resulting in a blindness of Ideological folly not seen in centuries.

The actual egregious act was taking Russia off Swift not understanding that America and combined West has lost its’ manufacturing capability and capacity to support a war effort. It is why the scurrying for artillery shells around the world to send to the Ukraine when no domestic ability to supply on a timely basis exists. What is worse the failure to recognize that America’s so called greatness is much by financial asset activity while manufacturing is only 12% of the economy. In real economies, real production matters. However one might expect fanatics rarely see beyond the nose of hatred and narrowness of pursuit. With no counter in play this group has run a muck while apparently the Biden Crowd  has no moral ability to bail out the direction by having no standing to do so. So a ship now out of control with no visible ability to navigate runs smack into an Iceberg called Russia.

This madness of frenzied fanatical purpose has put at risk not just hegemony but is carrying the USD into oblivion by continuing down a path where a change of direction is required before the ship is too far beyond repair. Because a collapse is not singular to America but to the entire western world we have known. This is the really what is at stake now and time is not friendly to continuance. Frankly, both the Neocons, the Biden crowd and Ukraine have to be throw under the bus for both hegemony and the USD to survive as mainstay player midst a changing landscape of trade settlement in alternative currencies to the USD. And similarly America must use the lessened time, a result of the errors made have produced, to rebuild itself or it will disappear along with the West giving up western control and hegemony to Asia very quickly. The opportunity is Asia is not ready, although eager to try to seize the day. However a continued proxy or direct war with Russia will result in a Western collapse. Each day brings more attention to inherent western weakness and a lack of capability. The sooner the end of this fiasco comes, the better for everyone except those who are benefiting short term. And they have always been expendable in the big picture.

Perhaps, this rolling up of the sidewalks has already commenced to give way to a settlement that allows everyone to walk away licking wounds readying for the either a another round or a change of direction to seek a new model. One imagines that starting to be one’s brother over one’s keeper maybe a good start if one can rebuild in time. As it is time waits for no one. And that will require both a cleanup in aisle one in America and a rebuilding of productive capacity with new technologies. It seems the rolling up of sidewalks started last week with Burns of the CIA visiting Zelensky and seeing the deaths of people since and the corruption previously ignored being brought to light about Ukraine and its’ administration. No doubt American misdeeds will be swept away in the dust.  And European solidarity will become more divided, as divisions are exploited with purpose. Especially, since in late 2021 Russia called for a return of NATO to 1997 border status. This would change NATO dramatically and perhaps for the better for America and not so much for Europe, and would open new opportunities to all actors to pursue.

And while pitiful to watch, perhaps somewhere the lightbulbs have been turned on. Time will tell the tale.

end

to

It is puzzling why anyone is surprised by this. The regime in Kiev is principled in the same blood thirst its’ roots held where anyone not of pure blood and the right beliefs should be killed and always discriminated against. There is zero press freedom or even political opposition as it is banned or suppressed. This is not so different than what one might expect to find in North Korea.
Today, on the streets people are picked up and fastened to lamp posts to be made examples of and in many cases simply picked up and thrown into vans to be sent to fight or be beaten or simply disappeared.
How one justifies support for such a regime is mind boggling. But then again,, it is clear that war with Russia is sought to cover the failures and thievery of yesterday expecting a bright outcome. There will not be one. Trying to have a digital IMF currency as a Reserve Currency, another WEF brain wave, will not work and a direct confrontation wit Russia will cause much pain.
There is no wisdom in banging your head against the wall when all you get is headache.

https://en.interaffairs.ru/article/ukrainian-chronicle-kiev-continues-the-religious-war-against-christianity/

TURKEY/SWEDEN/FINLAND/NATO

Belligerent Turkey is at it again:  They angrily cancel a key NATO talk with Sweden and Finland

I am not in favour of Sweden and Finland joining NATO as it is totally unnecessary.  However Turkey should be thrown out

(zerohedge0

Turkey Angrily Cancels Key NATO Talks With Sweden & Finland

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 09:45 PM

As expected Turkey on Tuesday announced it has indefinitely postponed any future rounds of talks with Sweden and Finland regarding their NATO membership bids. 

A major meeting was expected to take place in Brussels in February, but this has been dramatically canceled, Turkish state broadcaster TRT reported based on diplomatic sources. Via AFP

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was supposed to attend the talks, and when it was planned the two countries were widely perceived as very close to their NATO accession being approved.

President Erdogan himself on Monday lashed out at Sweden in particular, blasting Swedish authorities for allowing a far-right activist to burn a Quran in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm over the weekend. 

Erdogan stated bluntly that Sweden should no longer expect support from Turkey to join NATO given it allows “terrorists” in its midst. Turkey has also expressed deep dissatisfaction at both Nordic countries’ failure to crack down on Kurdish groups banned by the Turkish state.

Amid continuing Turkish anger, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has said a diplomatic “time-out” is now needed in order to reassess. 

At the same time, Finland has suggested it could seek NATO membership without Sweden, after the two earlier indicated a joint membership bid process.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Why Are Millennials Having So Many Strokes?

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 10:45 PM

Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClear Wire,

Strokes commonly strike the old.

The average age for the devastating condition – in which blood supply to a part of the brain is blocked or when a blood vessel in the brain bursts – is around 71.4 years in men and 76.9 years in women.

Millennials, however, are starting to bring those averages down.

Now ranging in age from 27 to 42, Millennials are suffering strokes at higher rates than their forebears did at the same agereversing a 40-year decline in stroke deaths.

Between 2003 and 2012, there was a 32% spike in strokes among 18- to 34-year-old women and a 15% increase for men in the same age range, according to CDC researchers.

When Scientific American further parsed the data, they found that the hike was mostly centered in the West and Midwest, where stroke rates among young people rose 70% and 34%, respectively, with particularly sharp increases in urban areas. Now, about one in ten people who has a stroke in the U.S. is under the age of 45.

Younger stroke victims

There are many potential explanations for this disconcerting trend. Rising stress, falling physical activity levels, and fewer doctor visits among Millennials could all play a role. One narrative rises to the forefront, however. As cigarette use in the U.S. declined from an alarming high of around 45% in the 1950s to just 12.5% in 2020, all Americans collectively reaped the benefit of less smoke in public places, which manifested in reduced rates of lung cancer, heart disease, and stroke. But since the 1970s, the public health benefits from reduced smoking are being eroded by rising obesity and its related health complications.

Childhood obesity is particularly noxious in regard to early stroke, and Millennials were the first generation to truly be affected by this alarming trend. The rate of childhood obesity more than tripled from 5% in 1978 to 18.5% in 2016, leaving many more children burdened by associated conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, which can lead to a stroke.

There is good news. Thanks to improved medical care, stroke fatality rates have fallen significantly between 1975 and 2019, about 65% for hemorrhagic stroke (caused by a burst blood vessel) and 80% for ischemic stroke (caused by a blood vessel blockage). And with greater brain plasticity, young people are more apt to recover. Still, strokes can leave Millennials with lasting complications, such as occasional seizures, incontinence, cognitive impairment, hindered speech, and diminished muscle control, not to mention a sharply elevated risk of a future stroke.

Increased stroke isn’t the only health issue that Millennials are contending with. The rates of many cancers, especially those tied to poor diet, are rising for people under age 50.

Diet and exercise

The best solution to reverse the rise in early stroke is for Millennials and future generations to eat right and exercise, especially from a young age. Schools and parents have a vital role to play here.

Obesity’s grasp can be hard to break if it takes hold at a tender age, but if healthy lifestyle practices are instilled early, it’s likely they will remain second nature.

This article was originally published on Big Think.

END

Australia Sees Heart Attacks Increase By 17% In 2022 – “Experts” Blame Pandemic

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 05:45 AM

The public has been bombarded with a stream of news stories in recent months seeking to explain the steady rise of heart attacks in western countries in the past two years.  The epidemic is most concerning due to the large number of young and otherwise healthy people that are being stricken with heart problems otherwise reserved for older or clinically obese patients.  

Explanations for the trend blame everything from video games to climate change.  Of course, these scapegoats do not explain the statistical leap in heart failure in the past two years.  The most common narrative is that the covid virus is the cause – The problem with this theory is that there is zero evidence to support the claim that covid causes potential heart ailments.  In fact, studies show that there is no such thing as “covid heart”, a false concept spread by the mainstream media at the onset of the pandemic.

Are the “experts” baffled?  Or, are they trying to avoid the obvious culprit.

Australia is reporting a 17% increase in heart attacks in the first eight months of 2022 alone, and establishment paid researchers seem to be deliberately avoiding any mention of the covid mRNA vaccines.  Instead, they are continuing to blame covid infection along with numerous peripheral and indirect triggers associated with the lockdowns.  

Multiple studies now show a direct relationship between vaccine status and Myocarditis, specifically in young people, and the attempts to suppress such information by Big Pharma and governments are failing.  If side effects are related to developing auto-immune disorders triggered by mRNA as some researchers suspect, then symptoms in many vaccinated people may not become visible for months or years.  But, as time passes, the extent of the damage will become clear to the public. 

Pro-vaccine studies related to the dangers often do not include unvaccinated people as a control group for determining side effects, which suggests a desire to hide health risks associated with covid vaccination.  Eventually the questions and the deaths are going to become too prominent for the mainstream to ignore.  Are torches and pitchforks the inevitable end for vaccine enforcers and Big Pharma? 

GLOBAL ISSUES;/

PAUL ALEXANDER

KA-BOOM!!! natural immunity WINS again over vaccine in children! Lin et al. “Effectiveness of Vaccination & Previous Infection Against Omicron Infection and Severe Outcomes in Children Under 12 Years”

Study is clear: Children with natural exposure immunity way better protected from COVID-19 infection & hospitalization when compared to vaccinated kids (Omicron or subvariant clade) North Carolina

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 24
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.18.23284739v1.full

This study covered all lineages of the omicron variant, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, BA.5, BQ.1/BQ.1.1, and XBB/XBB.1.5.

The data appears to show and adds to the existing evidence that those children with natural exposure immunity were much better protected from COVID infection and hospitalization (and I would argue death) than then children who were vaccinated.

Researchers used vaccination records as well as clinical outcomes for 1,368,721 North Carolina residents 11 years of age or younger from October 29, 2021 to January 6, 2023.

Statistical methods used were ‘Cox regression to estimate the time-varying effects of primary and booster vaccination and previous infection on the risks of omicron infection, hospitalization, and death.’

‘For children 5–11 years of age, the effectiveness of primary vaccination against infection was 59.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.5 to 61.2), 33.7% (95% CI, 32.6 to 34.8), and 14.9% (95% CI, 12.3 to 17.5) at 1, 4 and 10 months after the first dose;

the effectiveness of a monovalent or bivalent booster dose after 1 month was 24.4% (95% CI, 14.4 to 33.2) or 76.7% (95% CI, 45.7 to 90.0); and the effectiveness of omicron infection against reinfection was 79.9% (95% CI, 78.8 to 80.9) and 53.9% (95% CI, 52.3 to 55.5) after 3 and 6 months, respectively.

For children 0–4 years of age, the effectiveness of primary vaccination against infection was 63.8% (95% CI, 57.0 to 69.5) and 58.1% (95% CI, 48.3 to 66.1) at 2 and 5 months after the first dose, and the effectiveness of omicron infection against reinfection was 77.3% (95% CI, 75.9 to 78.6) and 64.7% (95% CI, 63.3 to 66.1) after 3 and 6 months, respectively.’

Researchers said the study showed that “previous SARS-CoV-2 infection induced strong immunity against future infection, although the immunity waned gradually over time” and that “omicron infection induced strong immunity in both vaccinated and unvaccinated children.” SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19.

Personal communication (electronic) from Dr. Peter McCullough:

‘No vaccine, no matter how theoretically compelling, should be in public use with these symptomatic side effects. Vaccines should have acceptable safety profiles with <5% having any significant short-term symptoms, be safe over the long term, provide at least 50% protection against a disease, inhibit transmission, and last at least a year. Faulty vaccines that underperform or make our kids sick should be rejected by parents and removed from the market to protect public safety.’

The Wellness Company

END

Retired US Coast Guard Vice Admiral Pens ‘Open Letter’ On Covid Vaccines, Calling On Other Flag Officers To Fight Mandate

Retired Coast Guard Vice Admiral William “Dean” Lee has written an open letter to his fellow flag officers, calling for the end to the DoD ‘vaccine mandate’.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 25
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

October 3, 2022

‘As many of you know, I have advocated publicly for seven cadets who were recently discharged from the USCGA for failing to comply with DOD’s vaccine mandate.   Each had applied for, and had been denied, a religious exemption.   I have been publicly rebuked, harshly, for doing so.  This letter will explain the facts and circumstances underlying my actions. 

I am not now, nor have I ever been, anti-vaccine.  I took both shots and advised a number of officers and enlisted members who sought my counsel to do the same.  I find no fault in the decisions made by operational commanders at the height of the pandemic who judged it necessary to make the vaccine mandatory.   I would have done likewise.   But, as with any new disease, with time, scientific understanding has markedly increased, treatments for those infected have been developed, and the effects on both the general population and specific cohorts of the population are better known and predictable.  Unquestionably, the risks of prolonged and severe disease, and of adverse outcomes, are now reduced, particularly for those of military age and who are otherwise healthy.  

The American people have moved on.  The President himself has declared “the Pandemic is over.”   Yet, we continue with an outdated mandate and to purge good people, even though we struggle to meet our recruiting goals.   The legality of the order itself is under significant scrutiny, with at least three federal injunctions in place.  The CDC just issued new guidance that advises that the vaccinated and the unvaccinated need not be treated differently.    

It’s time to pause and reevaluate whether, for some demographics at least, the cure has become worse than the (diminishing) disease, and, in the case of the military’s mandate, whether material violations of law have occurred.  Science has rapidly moved forward, but DOD inexplicably is not keeping up.  Vaccine protocols, in practice, require demographic stratification in order to keep up with the science, particularly where the risk-benefit analysis necessarily depends on demographic considerations.

Bringing this issue into the public domain is not easy for me, for I’m keenly aware that I may appear to some to be the dissident in a club that expects blind loyalty and whose rules require that retired Flag Officers go home and shut up, leaving the service in the capable hands of those behind us.  That was my plan.  But I am not blind, and there comes a time when prior leaders should question, and seek accountability of, those responsible for maintaining the core values and culture put in place by the chiefs and officers who preceded them.  I believe now is such a time.    

The men and women in the bowels of the ship are becoming uncomfortable.  Trust is eroding as our sailors question the motives and judgment of those who, despite the evidence, are sticking to a mandate that is no longer necessary; who have resorted to apparently unlawful measures to continue enforcing it; who have embraced a culture with ideologies antithetical to unit cohesion; that divides people into identity groups; and that promotes the acceptance – without question – of flags and symbols that may be offensive to men and women of faith.  They have no voice.  There is shoal water ahead, and the ship’s bridge isn’t listening to the lookouts on the fo’c’sle.’

END

Bivalent Boosters Creating Adverse Childhood Experiences in Kids Ages 5-11 with Injections that Evoke Symptoms Our Children Will not Forget; Dr. Peter McCullough (John Leake) clarion call: stop shots!

Big praise for Dr. McCullough for he is focusing on an aspect of the COVID fraud gene injection that is failing clinically with no basis as children bring statistical zero risk to the table, near zero

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 25
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

‘Vaccines should have acceptable safety profiles with <5% having any significant short-term symptoms, be safe over the long term, provide at least 50% protection against a disease, inhibit transmission, and last at least a year. Faulty vaccines that underperform or make our kids sick should be rejected by parents and removed from the market to protect public safety.’

The Wellness Company

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

Bivalent Boosters Creating Adverse Childhood Experiences in Kids Ages 5-11

By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH We often remember events from our childhood that came from physical experiences such as a broken arm or falling into a stream. Most patients from yesteryear remember childhood rheumatic or scarlet fever. Parents bringing their children age 5-11 years for COVID-19 vaccination may be creating adverse childhood experiences…

Read more

END

Where is Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of CDC? Why is she hiding from the public? Questions are piling up Rochelle, and we need you, so can’t you come out to play? Has Biden BANNED you? V-Safe?

Is it incompetence? Malfeasance? that CDC lies too much & not even the Biden White House can explain the lies? Why are you not in front of us right now as you were initially? Is it 5th or 6th shot?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 25
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Which is it Dr. Rochelle Walensky? I have to be honest, I had high hopes for her given her strong resume etc. I was impressed. Yet even that means nothing today for the most Ivy league resumes turned out to be purely incompetent across COVID, corruptible, inept, and purely stupid and easily incentivized to harm innocent healthy people and children with fraud lockdowns and forcing vaccine mandates along with denial of early treatment and natural immunity. Yet I held out hope she would rise above the typical technocrat buffoon. I have been disappointed.

Where are you Dr. Walensky? And as you answer that, can you Dr. Walensky, Director of the CDC, tell me, tell us, why these 15 adverse events of special interest (see table below), which are listed in the V-Safe protocol and survey (that the CDC oversees), were NOT, I say again, NOT included in the actual surveys?

You Dr. Walensky, and all of your people at CDC, NIH, FDA etc. knew, you knew full well that the COVID gene injection (mRNA-DNA platforms and specifically Pfizer and Moderna) was linked to deaths, to serious harms, to bleeding, to myocarditis, to blood clots, to pericarditis, to paralysis and a host of serious conditions up to and including death. You knew it yet it is my contention that you colluded with others at CDC and NIH and FDA to obfuscate and hide the actual data. How else can you explain this? I have looked at the protocol and survey and the low-level symptoms like headache, chills and nausea etc. are listed in a manner ‘in your face’ and would allow for easy tabulation. You then placed the real conditions of interest, the ‘patient-important’ ones at the end of the survey (table below, page 50 of 50 pages). It seems to me, that CDC hid it and you did not collect the information clearly.

end

Fauci’s NIH Remdesivir was deadly, never worked, failed NIH trial & Fauci is a criminal, a real criminal, FDA EUA was criminal, kidney & liver toxic, criminal to approve for infants, newborns & above

A failed EBOLA drug and for the FDA to approve it for infants 7 pounds and above (as young as 28 days old), January 21st FDA approved it for all newborns, FDA is a criminal agency

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 25END

/VACCINE IMPACT

Up to 70% of “COVID-19 Deaths” Were Due to Ventilators

January 24, 2023 6:37 pm

In a jaw-dropping article published by the Wall Street Journal, (Hospitals Retreat From Early Covid Treatment and Return to Basics) physicians admit to ventilating patients who did not need it as a step in their protocol – get this – not as a treatment that was likely to benefit the patient, but rather as a fruitless and callous way of attempting to stop the spread of COVID-19. Yes, euthanizing humans is illegal. Especially for the benefit of other patients. It should feel awful. If you are a doctor who has been persecuted for doing the right thing, perhaps you lost your license or it is being threatened, send this Wall Street Journal to your lawyers – and thank you for not acquiescing to the demands that you kill patients on ventilators and with strong sedatives.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

SLAY NEWS//

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MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

“That’s Highly Illogical, Captain”

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Perhaps nobody gets original Star Trek memes anymore, and I am showing my age. Then again, it seems nobody gets original logic anymore, and trying to use any also shows one’s age.

The market continues to price for a dream scenario of inflation having peaked then coming down sharply, but not overshooting to the downside; only the very mildest of recessions by any historical standards; a rise in US unemployment to ease wage pressures and supply-side overheating globally, but again the smallest ever seen in a recession; a near-term US rates peak below 5%, despite repeated Fed calls otherwise, then rapid rate cuts; that the US keeps cutting while the rest of the world hikes; and the rest of the world doesn’t cut rates even more than the US despite net exporting to it, and the historical record that when the US sneezes, everyone else catches cold… at a time when China is still catching Covid.

As a conversation yesterday noted, partly this is due to the relatively good news that has come out in 2023 so far against 2022’s ultra-gloomy backdrop and projections. However, as was also stressed, the range of scenarios ahead is truly broad, and yet the market seems to have settled for a happy median that seems the least likely to transpire.

Spock of course knows a thing or two about probability as well as logic:

  • What if unemployment is sticky, and so core services inflation is sticky, and so we see a rates pause, but then they have to go up again in H2 2023?
  • What if unemployment surges after a lag like it always has done in a US downturn so far, and we get a recession and deflation as the backdrop to those ‘nice’ rate cuts?
  • What if supply-side goods inflation picks up again before services inflation cools? After all, China is reopening, and its appetite for commodities may grow again; the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase, perhaps disrupting agri-commodity flows, as the US and Germany agree to both send tanks – but Germany is only sending 14(!), the kind of deliberate inaction that still risks a longer, grinding war with more destabilising effects; and won’t energy prices rise as the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is rebuilt, and far more so if energy demand doesn’t fall back because we don’t have a recession?
  • What if current market pricing for rate cuts pushes commodity prices higher as the US dollar falls, and as commodities emerge as a geopolitical/inflation hedge?
  • What if the Fed actually wants to see lower asset prices and keeps acting until it does, the inverse of the past pattern?
  • What if the US stumbles into recession, but others globally outright crumble?

None of this is being answered substantively by markets, where the possibly correct expectations for any one asset class are not being carried over with any kind of internal logic to all others. Then again, they can’t even get the NYSE to work properly now, so why listen to them anyway?

I don’t know how much more often or how much higher I can raise one eyebrow, original Nimoy-Spock style. (On which note, Nimoy wrote two autobiographies: “I am not Spock” in 1975, and “I am Spock” in 1995.) However, it seems I will have to keep practising as the market keeps indulging in highly illogical and improbable thinking. Indeed, let’s recall some classical logic errors evident almost every day in markets:

  1. This is true because it has not yet been proven false.
  2. This must be true because if it were false that would be horrible.
  3. This is true because people say it’s true.
  4. That idea is bad because bad people believe it.
  5. This is true because that smart person says it’s true.
  6. If this is not 100% true, then it must be 100% false.
  7. This happened after that, therefore that caused this.

For one example, global yesterday’s PMIs can be seen as backing a stagflationary view of the world, not a happier outcome. That was not how they were dressed up by markets.

For a second example, in New Zealand we see a Bloomberg headline this morning saying, ‘Kiwi Bonds Surge After NZ CPI’. All well, and good. Except that CPI number was 1.4% q-o-q in Q4, down from 2.2%, but higher than the 1.3% expectation; y-o-y inflation was an unchanged 7.2%, a tick higher than expected; tradeable CPI was 1.4% q-o-q vs. just 0.8% expected, despite lower commodity prices in Q4 already being reversed in 2023 as China reopens; and only non-tradeable CPI was 2 ticks weaker than expected at a still staggering 1.5% q-o-q, so 6% annualised, or three times the RBNZ’s CPI target. Yet the tiny Kiwi bond market indeed surged before someone who has watched original Star Trek started to sell. How many of the above logic errors were made in that early trading and pre-release market consensus call?

For third example, Aussie Q4 CPI was far higher than expected, making a mockery of claims that Down Under inflation is over. Instead, we saw q-o-q CPI hit 1.9%, almost a y-o-y figure, and well above 1.6% consensus. The y-o-y rate hit 7.8%, up from 7.3%, and vs. a 7.6% expectation. More worrying, the trimmed mean was 1.7% q-o-q and 6.9% y-o-y, the weighted median was 1.6% q-o-q and 5.8% y-o-y, and December m-o-m CPI was 8.4% y-o-y vs. a 7.7% market call. Worse, this was all before China reopened, before commodity prices started to push higher again, and before yields dipped, breathing new life into local ‘buy the housing dip’ headlines. But don’t worry, Aussie rates will still peak at a low enough level not to harm the housing market,… right? Perhaps, but it’s both highly illogical and improbable, Captain.

If only I could give markets the Vulcan nerve pinch – but more Aussie data like today will do the job for me, I think.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.

BRAZIL

Brazil spirals into a inflationary abyss!

(zerohedge)

Brazil’s Central Bank On The Verge Of Raising Its Inflation Target As It Spirals Into The Inflationary Abyss

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 08:45 PM

Over the past year, we have repeatedly said that the endgame for this particular episode in central bank stupidity will be when the Fed is dragged, kicking and screaming, into hiking the US inflation target (read thisthis and this).

And while it will take at least a few more years before the Fed admits defeat – should it pause and/or pivot it will take far shorter – one place where a central bank inflation target increase is imminent, is Brazil.

To be sure, Brazil is a bit of a basket case, having had its share of close encounters with terminal socialism, most recently in October when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) defeated Bolsonaro to became president for a second time (and a first-ever third term) while promising all the irresistible delights of socialism, if not communism. And like every self-respecting socialist, Lula quickly figured out that what he needs first and foremost, is control over the central bank.

The problem, as everyone knows, is that giving access of a country’s money printer to a true-blue socialist is sovereign suicide, and in Brazil It took decades of cajoling and lobbying by the financial community to finally shield the central bank from political meddling.

So when President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, just three weeks into office, questioned the need for an autonomous central bank during a national TV interview last week, it didn’t go over well in markets… even if nobody was really surprised. Swap rates surged and the currency tanked following his remarks. Cabinet members entered the field and managed to halt the plunge that day, but the episode left many investors increasingly alarmed about a Lula presidency they are finding to be vastly different than the one that oversaw an economic boom back in the first decade of the new the century.

As Bloomberg notes, as part of his socialist overhaul, Lula has packed his economic team with “left-wing loyalists, lambasted fiscal rules and now, with his thinly veiled attack on central bank autonomy, taken a posture that raises doubts about the government’s commitment to quelling consumer prices increases in a country with a long history of nasty inflation outbreaks.” Which is ironic since so much of the US establishment was openly rooting for a grand ole socialist time under Lula and was so very happy when Bolsonaro lost by the narrowest of margins.

And like every socialist (or despotic tyrant for that matter) who promises the sun, moon and stars… if only he had access to an infinite supply of (soon to be devalued cash), Lula quickly grasped that what he needs is to strip the central bank of its independence. As such, his saber-rattling is born in large part out of frustration, investors say, with the growing clash between their fiscal policy – aimed at boosting a sputtering economy – and the central bank’s high interest-rate policy –  designed to bring inflation back down to target.

But what if one goes for the classical Faustian bargain: let’s make life a little bit easier for everyone if we all agree on just a little more inflation? Well, that’s precisely what Lula is doing.

Last Wednesday, in a wide-ranging interview with Globo TV, Lula downplayed the importance of an independent central bank, and addressed the country’s soon-to-be-raised inflation target.

Taking a page right out of Erdogan’s playbook (as a reminder, in Turkey the central bank has lost all of its autonomy in recent years as Turkey’s dictator appointed close friends and allies to run it under fear of immediate termination if they refuse to follow orders), Lula said that “there was a lot of discussion in this country to have an independent central bank, believing that it would be better,” (during Lula’s initial two terms in office, the bank’s chief, Henrique Meirelles, said the president had given him de-facto autonomy to set monetary policy). Lula then said that “it’s silly to think that an independent central bank governor is going to do more than when the president appointed him.”

Which, of course, is precisely what he would say when considering his bigger goal, which is – drumroll – raising the Brazilian inflation target. As Bloomberg noted, during the interview, Lula defended moves to raise the country’s inflation target and said that he would be forced to tighten economic conditions to reach the target and questioned why not set higher than the current 3% goal established for 2024, mentioning 4.5% as a possibility.

And since every radical monetary overhaul needs a social crisis, the CIA Brazil conveniently had just that a few days prior. The president said in the interview that he views the storming of the presidential palace, the congress and the Supreme Court building on Jan. 8 to have been “the beginning of a coup” and that the rioters were acting “according to the order and guidance that Bolsonaro gave for a long time.”

“His decision to keep quiet after losing the election, weeks and weeks of not saying anything; his decision not to hand the sash to me, to leave for Miami as if he were running away in fear of something; and his silence even after what happened here, gave me the impression that he knew everything that was happening, that he had a lot to do with what was happening,” Lula said.

Ah yes, implementing revolutionary monetary policy overhaul at a time when a group of people (without military support) storms the local center of power, and the former president is constantly used by the media and the deep state as an endless propaganda distraction from what matters… it’s almost as if we’ve seen that particular play before.

So what happens next? Well, since there is nobody that can prevent Lula from achieving what he wants (see Turkey) it’s only a matter of time before Brazil becomes the first quasi-modern central bank to raise its inflation target during this particular monetary cycle.

The soon-to-be-toothless central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto himself addressed concerns about Lula’s intervention several times, saying such moves could “reduce the power” of monetary policy and reinforcing that policy makers “won’t hesitate” to raise interest rates if needed.

Meanwhile, as foreign investors watch the Brazilian socialist tragicomedy unwind in real time terrified of what the outcome for the country’s inflation will be, they have been avoiding local assets. Vista Capital had flagged an attack on the central bank’s autonomy as a “relevant risk” being underestimated by markets in a note at the end of last year, but the topic became ubiquitous following the interview, with money managers now expecting the administration to force a change in Brazil’s inflation goals. The government is expected to set 2026’s target in June, and will almost certainly revise the current goal of 3% for 2024 and 2025 to 4.5% as Lula hinted.

“Lula’s decision to publicly state twice that the inflation target should be higher did not go unnoticed, and may further reinforce increasing inflation expectations over longer periods” in the central bank’s weekly survey, JPMorgan economist Cassiana Fernandez wrote in a note as Bloomberg reported. Sure enough, analysts in the survey have raised estimates for 2023 inflation six weeks in a row, and also see consumer prices rising above target through 2025.

Campos Neto seemed to mostly shrug off Lula’s remarks, acknowledging interest rates were currently high while also reiterating the bank will continue to act independently — something that’s helped curb volatility in markets, he said late last week, at least until Lula makes it very clear that he is in control of the central bank. As such, locals are watching for what they say is the first true test to the bank’s autonomy: the appointment of a replacement for Bruno Serra, who’s expected to step down as monetary policy director in February.

Campos Neto plans to suggest a name for the post, with Banco Santander’s Sandro Sobral gaining momentum among the possibilities, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked for anonymity discussing private information. But ultimately it’s up to the president to name Serra’s replacement, and it will most likely not be the most qualified candidate but instead some crony of Lula’s.

What happens next? Look to Argentina for clues. As for all those in the US deep state and assorted hanger-on billionaires who backed Lula over Bolsonaro, they are following events in Brazil most closely, knowing well that once the inevitable economic crash pans out – as it does every time a socialist is in charge – it will be only a matter of time before they can buy up Brazil’s vast riches at pennies on the real.

END

CANADA

This will spread to all central banks:  Bank of Canada hikes  25 basis points and will hold rates as it assesses impact. Canada is now in a deep recession

(zerohedge)

The First Pause: Bank Of Canada Hikes 25bps As Expected, Will Hold Rates As It “Assesses Impact”

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 10:23 AM

The Bank of Canada joined the “one and done” bandwagon moments ago when the central bank hiked rates by 25bps – as expected by most strategists – for an eight consecutive, but also perhaps final time, because the central bank says it “expects to hold” rates “while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.” The hike brought the benchmark overnight rate to 4.5%, the highest level in 15 years… and where it was back in 2007 when it rapidly plunged to a record low one year later.

Previously, the BOC’s guidance said that “the Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target.”

And while this is likely the BOC’s final hike for a long time, now that central banks around the world are rapidly pausing their tightening cycle at a time when a global recession is the modal outcome, most analysts didn’t see the central bank explicitly declaring a potential end point.

In the quarterly monetary policy report published alongside the decision, officials said the economy is still overheating but growth is expected to decelerate rapidly as rate hikes weigh on household spending and help to bring inflation back within the bank’s control range by the middle of this year.

Looking ahead, the Bank said its “ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate.” It added that “if economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level.”

At the same time, the BOC cautioned that more hikes may be needed if economic data surprise to the upside. The bank “is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target.”

In their report, officials raised their estimate of economic growth in 2022 to 3.6% and forecast a 1% expansion this year, up from 3.3% and 0.9% in their October projections. The chances of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, a so-called technical recession, are nonetheless seen as “roughly the same” as a small expansion in 2023.

Policymakers also flagged slowing 3-month measures of core inflation as evidence underlying price pressures have peaked. Global supply chain conditions and lower energy prices are also reasons the central bank sees inflation coming down “significantly” this year. Officials flagged sticker services price inflation as the biggest upside risk to their outlook which is why it will be up to the data to justify the expectations that inflation will “come down significantly this year.”

The BOC’s conditional pause –  the first among Group of Seven central banks according to Bloomberg – suggests “policymakers are convinced the current rate is restrictive enough to restore price stability.

As Bloomberg adds, the Bank of Canada, which led its global peers in raising rates rapidly last year, could now be laying out a blueprint for how they pivot to pausing. This comes at a confusing time: globally, the economic outlook is improving amid Europe’s resilience during an energy crisis, China’s reopening, and subsiding inflationary pressures from declining commodity prices and easing supply challenges.

Despite the so-called economic rebound, Canadian households, which are among the most indebted among advanced countries, are feeling the crushing pain of higher rates and rising prices for shelter and food. The nation’s housing activity has slowed considerably, and consumption spending is expected to decline further.

“There is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending,” the bank said in its statement.

Wednesday decision marks the first time in the Bank of Canada’s history that the public will get a glimpse of its interest-rate setting process, joining central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England in sharing records of their policy meetings. A minutes-like summary of the bank’s deliberations will be published on Feb. 8.

In kneejerk response, and even though the BOC move was widely expected and telegraphed, the Loonie dropped to 1.34 vs the USD

END

INDIA

Meet your next Madoff: Adani.  Hindenburg rarely misses

(zerohedge)

Short-Seller Hindenburg Targets India’s Richest Man For “Brazen Stock Manipulation”

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 11:45 AM

Short seller Hindenburg Research, best known for publishing a scathing report on EV startup Nikola, which brought down the founder, is pursuing its biggest target yet: India’s richest man. 

Late Tuesday, Hindenburg issued a lengthy report titled “Adani Group – How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In Corporate History.”

“Today we reveal the findings of our 2-year investigation, presenting evidence that the INR 17.8 trillion (US $218 billion) Indian conglomerate Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades,” the report said. 

Gautam Adani, Founder and Chairman of the Adani Group, has soared up the Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index in the past year to become the fourth-wealthiest person in the world. 

Adani “has amassed a net worth of roughly $120 billion, adding over $100 billion in the past 3 years largely through stock price appreciation in the group’s 7 key listed companies, which have spiked an average of 819% in that period,” the report said. 

Hindenburg noted that Adani Group had already been investigated for corruption, money laundering, and theft of taxpayer funds. They allege the companies are extremely overvalued: “The 7 key listed companies have 85% downside purely on a fundamental basis owing to sky-high valuations.”

Hindenburg said it was shorting Adani Group companies through US bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments. They noted their short thesis was developed after speaking with “dozens of individuals, including former senior executives of the Adani Group, reviewing thousands of documents, and conducting diligence site visits in almost half a dozen countries.” 

Bloomberg provided a quick snapshot of Hindenburg’s main allegations:

  • Identified 38 Mauritius shell entities controlled by Adani’s brother, Vinod Adani, or his close associates plus entities controlled by him in other tax havens.
  • The offshore shell network seems to be used for earnings manipulation.
  • Adani Group has previously been the focus of 4 major government investigations relating to allegations of fraud.
  • Adani Enterprises and Adani Total Gas Ltd. appear to be audited by a tiny firm, with no current website, only 4 partners and 11 employees which has audited just one other listed firm.
  • The auditor “hardly seems capable of complex audit work” when Adani Enterprises alone has 156 subsidiaries and many more joint ventures.

The seven India-listed companies, which include Adani Enterprises and Adani Transmission, fell between 1% and 8% on Wednesday. Even India’s main equity index slid about 1% S&P BSE Sensex. 

Avinash Gorakshakar, head of research at Profitmart Securities, told Reuters that the slide in Indian stocks was due to a “combination of factors – the report on Adani group stocks, the monthly expiry of January derivatives series and the fading off of the pre-budget rally.” 

Adani Group dismissed the allegations. They accused Hindenburg of ‘sabotage’ ahead of a planned $2.5 billion stock sale on Friday.

“We are shocked that Hindenburg Research has published a report …without making any attempt to contact us or verify the factual matrix,” Jugeshinder Singh, Adani Group’s chief financial officer, said in a statement. He said the short report was full of misinformation and “baseless and discredited allegations.”

Last year, Adani launched a hostile takeover of Indian broadcaster NDTV to build a media empire. The billionaire might use his media outlet to hit back at Hindenburg’s short attack. 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/and interest rate settings/Wednesday morning 7:30 am 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0867  DOWN  .0023 

USA/ YEN 129.69 DOWN  0.534/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2324 DOWN   0.0008

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

 Hang Sang CLOSED 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.29%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.29% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 95.82 PTS OR 0.35%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1926.75

silver:$23.46

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 101.77 UP 10  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.0022% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.441% UP 0 AND 4/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.130%// UP 1  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.07 UP 14   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.156% UP 2/10 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0896 UP 0.0006 or 6 basis points//

USA/Japan: 129.70  DOWN .509  OR YEN UP 51  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2368 UP.0037 OR  37 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0048 OR 48 BASIS pts  to 1.3419

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(XXX) AT LUNAR HOLIDAY

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7808

TURKISH LIRA:  18.81  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.441…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at  3.473% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.627 UP 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 101.59 DOWN 8  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 12.49 PTS OR  0.16%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 11.47POINTS OR 0.08%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 6.60 PTS OR 0.09% 

Spain IBEX   DOWN  9.60 POINTS OR 0.11%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  DOWN 9.01  PTS OR  0.03%

WTI Oil price 80.89   12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.49  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   DOWN TO:  69,00/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 8/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.154

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.309  DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0911  UP .00212    OR 21 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2393 UP   .0062  or  62 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.265% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 129.614   DOWN 0.599////YEN  UP 60 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3385 UP .0014 (CDN dollar, DOWN 14 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 80.54

Brent OIL:  86.42

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 3.453%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.604%

USA dollar index:101.43 DOWN 24  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.80

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  69.31  DOWN  0 AND  31/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 9.75 PTS OR 0.03% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 31.96 PTS OR 0.27%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.21 UP 0.01 PTS (0.052)%

GLD: $181.08 UP 0.79 OR 0.44%

SLV/ $21.97 UP .21 OR 0.97%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Wash-Out, Rinse Weak-Hands, Repeat The Squeeze: Gold Rips As Equity Traders Buy The F**king Dip

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 04:01 PM

The word of the day was “WTF” (or is that three words) as that term dominated the MSGs we got from traders everywhere as equity markets dumped and pumped today with Microsoft the flag-bearer for the WTF-iness.

Solid headline earnings sparked a bid after the close, but the CFO slashed the outlook and had nothing positive to say at all sending the mega-tech firm’s share price reeling and extending into the cash close. But, as the 30-minute mark hit (10amET), dip-buyers swarmed back in and lifted Mr.Softy all the way back into the green…

WTF indeed.

The S&P followed a similar path, reversing its downtrend at the 200DMA and surging back into the green…

All the majors followed a similar path today. sliding after the MSFT conference call, accelerating weakness during the European session, diving at the US cash open… and then panic-bid from 10amET onwards. Nasdaq was the only index that was unable to get back to unchanged intraday…

“Most Shorted” stocks puked at the open but at 10amET (no headline catalyst, sorry), everything went just a little bit turbo as ‘most shorted’ stocks squeeze all the way back to unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott highlighted today, Equity CTA positioning recently swung back notably “long”, and is now a potential source of ‘supply’ rather than squeeze higher ammunition…

Additionally, a lot of positive $Delta has been added in recent days, especially in Nasdaq/QQQ options – now also a source of de-risking flows…

Before we move on from stocks, we note that Fed rate trajectory expectations slipped dovishly lower today, likely helped by BoC’s “pause” comments…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the belly outperforming thanks to the strongest 5Y TSY auction ever while the longer-end of the curve saw yields end higher. All yields are lower on the week however with the wings outperforming (2Y, 30Y -3.5bps) while the belly is lagging (5Y very marginally lower)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar drifted lower today, stalling around the CPI lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the day unchanged, rallying back up to $23,000 after some overnight weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back up to cycle highs after early weakness, almost tagging $1950 today

Hovering at some significant historical resistance levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended higher after a choppy day with WTI finding support at $80…

NatGas tumbled another 6% today, now at its lowest since June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that while the S&P is back above 4000, forward-earnings-expectations remain elevated (decoupled?). However, we do also note that while US money supply has been weakening, our global money supply proxy (in USD) has surged back up near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and remember, all stimulus/money-supply is fungible.

Which we will probably need again soon to be able to afford gas prices at the pumps…

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mr.Biden

END

EARLY MORNING TRADING/

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

END

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Living standards have declined dramatically in the USA

(Jeffrey Tucker/EpochTimes)

Your Living Standards Have Declined Dramatically

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

In the old days, shopping for groceries used to be a joy. By old days, I mean two years ago. Now, it is shocking and miserable. You look at these prices and wonder if you can even afford normal foods we took for granted.

Everyone knows about the egg problem, which is being chalked up to a bird flu, just as Putin was responsible for the gas price and greedy meat processors caused beef prices to soar. Sorry but this is ridiculous. The price of eggs is up dramatically because all the costs associated with making them available to consumers are up.

At first, there was just a shortage because grocery chains resisted price increases. Once they came back to the shelves, the cost dramatically rose. You are going to pay more for the worst eggs than the best egg cost only one year ago. Unless you know someone with chickens or have them yourself, you are stuck with thin shells and light-yellow yokes forever, while paying through the nose for them.

The bottom line is undeniable: in a mere two years, many of the things you loved, healthy food for your families—I’m not talking about the all-carb diet they want us to adopt—has now doubled in price.

Some is up 50 percent and some is up 150 percent. This damage is absolutely not captured in the CPI, which has huge drawbacks by being calculated on an annual basis and for being a weighted index number that fails to capture the reality on the ground.

The reality you see on the shelves of your local store. The grocery prices tell the truth that you are being pillaged.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

The pillaging is not limited to this problem however. And by the way, this is NOT going to improve. It would take a dramatic deflation to restore our living standards. The Fed will never permit that. At best, their intention is to take down the inflation rate to 2 percent per annum. It now stands at about 6 percent, maybe. So even if it happens to fall to zero, all prevailing prices will stick. That means that you have been robbed.

The fundamentals of household finance are even worse. Credit card balances are way up. Savings is way down. And real income (which is adjusted for inflation) has been falling now for 21 months straight. Truly, it’s panic time but people are so beaten down and exhausted that they are not panicking. Most people have acquiesced in exhaustion of the shock and awe to which they have been subjected.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

These charts portend terrible things for our future. It truly means the end of prosperity. In fact, middle-class people barely remember what that was like even though we experienced it as recently as 2019. We didn’t have to choose between eating good food and heating our homes, paying our cell phone bill and going on vacation, drinking good wine and joining a gym. We could do all of those things.

No more. Our living standards have been taken down a peg or several. Of course it doesn’t affect the very wealthy that gathered this week in Davos for the World Economic Forum. They have all the resources they need and can continue to live as always. It’s the rest of us who are being ground down into the dirt.

Note too the smaller packages of everything, with producers shaving off ounces every few weeks. Try to buy the big packages like three years ago and you are likely out of luck. My favorite Turkish coffee is the same price but half the size. Did humanity suddenly desire smaller quantities of things? No, this is just a way to disguise price increases without letting the consumer know.

The other day I bought movie tickets but the bottom-line price was higher than the units. That’s because the software added a $5 “convenience fee.” So great to know that now I have to pay an extra fee for delivery of an electronic good.

Remember when Uber and Lyft were cheap and even a good alternative to owning a car? Those days are long over. Now it costs $40 just to get across town in D.C. And New York City, forget it. The prices are astronomical while the subways are more dangerous than ever. Might as well not go.

This is what is happening to us.

Now, to the critical question. How was all this accomplished, this massive increase in taxation by surreptitious means? Please understand: this was accomplished not by Putin or greedy corporations but by the Federal Reserve. They have the legal power to counterfeit. They do it by buying government debt with money that had not previously existed. This new money makes it way through the economy, watering down the value of existing money.

It’s like this. Let’s say you are holding a kids’ birthday party and have only one can of frozen lemonade. But it turns out that 50 kids show up. You do what is possible to stretch the lemonade but each serving gets weaker. At some point it is just water. The kids start to notice. You have to explain that you bumped into the physical limits. The lemonade has become ever less valuable.

It’s the same with the Fed. It does not matter that the dollar can buy more foreign currencies than ever. That has nothing to do with anything. What matters is not how much foreign currency it can buy but how many goods and services it can buy. The reason it buys far less traces to the outrageous monetary expansions of 2020 and 2021. That’s the whole reason. At one point, monetary expansion was running 26 percent per year!

They robbed you to fund their outrageous lockdown experiment and put as many businesses and people on the payroll as possible. They might as well have dropped money from helicopters. Now we are paying the price for this monetary malfeasance.

And now?

For the first time ever, M2 is actually falling. How do you think that is going to work out? The mismanagement of our nation’s money stock is breathtaking.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

And did you see the idea of a $1 trillion coin floating around again? This has to be the biggest monetary hoax in history. You can’t just mint a round coin, out of any material, even platinum, and cause new wealth to come into existence. The idea keeps popping up but nothing comes of it simply because the alchemy is too obvious even for the power elite to pull off.

Our rulers in D.C. have got themselves into a real fix. The people are furious about what is happening and everyone wants to know why. There is a growing populist movement out there that simply will not go along. We aren’t giving up our gas stoves. We aren’t going to eat bugs. And we aren’t going to give up our birthright to freedom just because a bunch of partying clowns in Davos tell us we have to.

We really do face a choice right now. If we do not act and do not choose wisely, we face a future of growing impoverishment, ill-health, and deprecated living standards. We are not doing this to ourselves. They are doing it to us, and they will continue on this path so long as they can get away with it.

END

Earthquake rattles Los Angeles

(zerohedge)

“Shaken Awake”: Earthquake Rattles Los Angeles, Followed By Multiple Aftershocks

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 06:55 AM

A preliminary 4.2-magnitude earthquake rattled people awake across Los Angeles Wednesday morning. 

The quake struck around 0200 local time and was centered offshore about 10 miles south of Malibu Beach and west of Los Angeles, at a depth of 9.2 miles, according to USGS.

Three minutes later, another quake struck with a 3.5 magnitude aftershock. At 0222 and 0238 local time, two progressively weaker aftershocks were recorded. 

The quakes prompted the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) to enter “Earthquake Mode.” Crews surveyed all major “areas of concern” across the metro area and found “no damage or injuries.” 

However, social media was flooded with comments by residents who were jolted awake by the quakes. 

Around 2 a.m., I was shaken awake by a 4.2. There have been three aftershocks since: 3.5, 2.8 and 2.6. Only the first two quakes were felt significantly in The South Bay.#Earthquake #California #SouthernCalifornia #LosAngeles #SouthBay #BeachLife pic.twitter.com/HfxEwyPAYg— Geri Mars (@GeriMars) January 25, 2023

Wide awake after #earthquake and an aftershock in #LosAngeles— Sallie Olmsted (@Salliemeta) January 25, 2023

All of Los Angeles is awake now lmao— not jen (@heeey_jen) January 25, 2023

Just got jolted awake by a quick but powerful #earthquake. I am in San Pedro (Los Angeles)— Rick Nuthman (@nuthman) January 25, 2023

For years, seismologists have warned the public that Southern California is long overdue for a massive earthquake.

END 

USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES

Dow component Boeing in big trouble again with an unexpected Q4 loss as high costs are hitting earnings

(zerohedge)

Boeing Tumbles On Unexpected Q4 Loss As High Costs Hit Earnings

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 08:45 AM

Boeing reported an unexpected loss to end 2022 as the planemaker grappled continued to grapple with high costs that threaten to slow further its already moribund recovery. The aerospace giant reported an adjusted EPS loss of $1.75 in the fourth quarter, missing estimates of a 26c profit on revenue of just under $20 billion, roughly in line (but below) the average estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

Here are the Q4 details:

“While we have made meaningful progress, challenges remain and we have more work ahead to drive stability in our operations and within the supply chain,” Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dave Calhoun said in a separate memo to employees. “This will be another important year for us as we look to steadily increase our production rates, further improve performance, progress in our development programs and deliver on our commitments.”

The disappointing Q4 results underscore the work Boeing still has to do to return its factories to full gear and fully capitalize on soaring demand for air travel. The US aviation titan has already endured a difficult few years marked by the grounding of the cash-cow 737 Max and Covid-19 pandemic, before recent signs of recovery.

On the other hand, Boeing made good on a cash-flow recovery promised by executives, generating $3.1 billion in the quarter thanks to a late-year flurry of jet deliveries. That was better than the $2.89 billion Wall Street had expected for the period, and lifted the company to its first positive cash flow on an annual basis since 2018. Boeing had burned through more than $28 billion over the three-year stretch before the 2022 rebound.

The free cash flow in 2022 was a welcome change, and while total debt was unchanged around $57BN, net debt declined thanks to a nearly $3 billion increase in cash and marketable securities to $17.2BN.

The planemaker said that it was starting to step up jet deliveries and chip away at its growing stockpile of hundreds of already-built Max, 787 Dreamliners and 777X jetliners. Boeing has been hobbled by shortages of critical components such as engines and too few trained workers on its production lines.

Increasing deliveries bolsters cash, although Boeing also faces the added expense of bringing the aircraft out of storage and making repairs so they meet the latest airworthiness standards, according to George Ferguson, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. He estimated that the company had 229 undelivered Max in its storage lots as of December.

“When you start delivering airplanes that have already been built, obviously it turbocharges cash flow because you didn’t have to spend cash to build the airplane,” Ferguson said of Boeing’s cash surge in an interview before the earnings report. “But you have to spend some to get it out of inventory – before you can grab all that cash.”

As Bloomberg adds, airlines have been snapping up new jets as they emerge from Covid, and Boeing’s 737 Max has an opportunity to make headway against a rival Airbus SE model that’s largely sold out until 2029. But the US planemaker has been slow to crank up work in its factories as it contends with shortages of engines, particularly for its 737 Max, and supplier hiccups for everything from computer chips to lavatories.

Some more comments and context from the Q4 results, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • CEO: Demand Across Our Portfolio Is Strong
  • 737 Program Stabilizing Production Rate at 31 Per Month
  • 787 Program Continues at A Low Production Rate
  • To Ramp 737 Production to 50/MO in 2025/2026 Timeframe
  • Plans to Ramp 787 Program to 5/Month in Late 2023
  • Total Co. Backlog at Quarter-End $404B
  • Plans to Ramp 787 Production up to 10/Month in ‘25/’26
  • Total Backlog Including Over 4,500 Commercial Airplanes
  • Generates Positive Fcf for Year for First Time Since ‘18

Looking ahead, Boeing kept its financial objective unchanged, centered around a goal of $10BN in free cash flow in 2025/26.

The company forecast adjusted free cash flow of $3.0 billion to $5.0 billion, in line with the consensus estimate of $4.01 billion. It also sees operating cash flow $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, which also is in line with the estimate of $5.54 billion.

There is more in the company’s Q4 presentation and press release.

The shares fell more than 3% as of 8:30 a.m. before the start of regular trading (when the NYSE may or may not have another freak out). The stock traded at $206, roughly where it traded a year ago. Through Tuesday’s close, Boeing’s stock had risen 11% this year.

Calhoun and CFO Brian West are expected to provide an update on the status of the undelivered jets, efforts to stem defense program losses and discuss another potential earnings catalyst — China’s reopening travel market — during an earnings conference call later Wednesday morning. The bulls will be hoping that Boeing won’t pull another Microsoft then.

end 

USA COVID//

SWAMP STORIES

This is nuts! Landlords must be going crazy

(zerohedge)

Los Angeles Extends Rent Protections After COVID-Era Moratoriums Set To Expire

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times,

The Los Angeles City Council voted unanimously Jan. 20 to make some COVID-era protections for renters permanent, less than two weeks before they were set to expire.

“Today was a huge victory,” recently-elected Councilmember Katy Yaroslavsky posted to Twitter after the vote.

 “The Los Angeles City Council just unanimously adopted several common sense tenant protections that will protect thousands of Angelenos facing eviction, and help make our work around homelessness and reducing poverty that much easier.

The council approved moratoriums for renters – including no-fault evictions and nonpayments – beginning at the height of the pandemic and were to expire Feb. 1.

Previously, tenants eligible for such protection were those who had experienced a loss of income due to COVID, including reduced work hours, and who needed financial assistance with childcare and medical expenses.

The new rules will give protections for renters living in non-rent controlled units—meaning those built after 1978—and include preventing landlords from evicting tenants unless there is unpaid rent or evidence of breaking a lease’s rules. That “just cause” policy provision—which states that a landlord must have a valid reason, such as a violation of a lease, for evicting a tenant—goes into effect after six months or when a lease is expired, whichever comes first.

But some, including small-scale landlords, are wondering how they can keep covering property, utility costs, and mortgages without rent paid by tenants.

Stickers for rent cancelations are pasted to a light fixture in front of Los Angeles City Hall on Nov. 8, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

The Coalition of Small Rental Property Owners founding member Diane Robertson told The Epoch Times the council’s vote has “additional handcuffs” on small mom-and-pop landlords.

“There are so many of us who are strongly considering leaving the housing industry in Los Angeles … and to be frank, if that happens, properties are going to be sold to corporate owners more than likely and in the long run, that is not going to bode well for renters,” she said.

Property owners in rent-controlled areas, Robertson said, also struggle to keep up with rising inflation costs.

“Prices for everything needed to maintain our properties have increased,” Robertson said.

“Plumbers, electricians, gardeners—these things are essential for us to provide housing that tenants want to live in.”

Most renters in Los Angeles already have “just cause” protections, but the council’s vote expanded the number of households covered.

The new provision also prevents landlords until February 2024 from evicting tenants who have prohibited pets and additional residents not listed on their lease.

Despite their support, Councilmembers Traci Park, Monica Rodriguez, and John Lee expressed concern over the new provisions, arguing small landlords will need to have a fair pay-back program for unpaid rent.

“I’d like to dispel the notion heard so often that this council has done nothing to help tenants throughout this pandemic. In my opinion, that could not be further from the truth,” Lee said during the meeting.

“… [But] we can also set up a timeline for rental repayment that is fair and manageable,” for landlords and tenants alike.

In response, the council added an amendment for when landlords must receive rent that went unpaid during the pandemic.

For such incurred between March 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021, tenants will have until Aug. 1 to pay. For that between Oct. 1, 2021, and Jan. 31, 2023, until Feb. 1, 2024.

The council additionally voted for the city administrator to provide recommendations within 30 days for a relief-assistance program for small mom-and-pop landlords.

END

They can do fine without the debt ceiling raised

(zerohedge)

Biden Says He Won’t Let GOP ‘Wreck’ Economy While McConnell Says McCarthy Needs To Craft Debt Ceiling Deal

(zerohedge)

TUESDAY, JAN 24, 2023 – 07:05 PM

During a Tuesday meeting with Congressional Democrats, President Joe Biden said that he has “no intention of letting the Republicans wreck our economy.”

“Nor does anybody around this table,” he continued, nodding to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

“[We] want to build this economy from the bottom up, the middle out,” said Biden, adding “We also want to talk about the extreme Republican economic plans.”

The president appeared to sarcastically refer to some of the plans Republicans have to cut costs.

“Apparently, they’re genuinely serious about cutting Social Security, cutting Medicare,” Biden said. “I love their 30 percent sales tax.”

Democrats, he said, are looking forward to talking “a lot about that.” –WaPo

Meanwhile on the other side of the aisle, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said on Tuesday that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) needs to spearhead crafting a solution to the debt ceiling.

“I can’t imagine any debt ceiling provision passed out of the Senate with 60 votes could actually pass this particular House,” McConnell told reporters on Tuesday. “So I think the final solution to this particular episode lies between Speaker McCarthy and the president.”

McConnell said it would be ‘reasonable’ for McCarthy to consider spending cuts as part of a plan to extend the debt ceiling before a June 5 deadline that the Treasury Department says needs to be me, lest the country face ‘economic calamity.’

According to McConnell, it’s “entirely reasonable for the new speaker and his team to put spending reduction on the table. “I wish him well in talking to the president. That’s where a solution lies.”

McConnell’s remarks raise pressure on McCarthy, who is seeking to navigate demands from House GOP hard-liners to force aggressive spending cuts as part of any debt ceiling extension. While McConnell has negotiated past deals with Biden, including when he was vice president, McCarthy has little experience negotiating complicated deals with Democrats. It’s not clear what, if anything, can get the votes to pass the House, where Republican control a narrow majority. –NBC News

Biden and the Democrats, however, say they won’t entertain cuts or other negotiations.

According to Schumer, the ball is indeed in McCarthy’s court.

“McConnell made the argument for us. He says the House has to go first,” Schumer told reporters. “We’re just taking that one little step further and saying yes, not only that to go first, they have to show us a plan.”

Earlier Tuesday, Schumer said that “default would be a catastrophe for American working families. It’s not an abstract issue. It’s going to affect every American family severely and adversely,” adding “And playing brinksmanship, taking hostages is being risky and not caring about average people. If MAGA GOP stops paying our nation’s bills, Americans pay the price.”

Translation; prepare for more chaos.

end.

About time!

(zerohedge)

Hawley Introduces ‘PELOSI Act’ To Stop Insider Trading In Congress

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 10:20 AM

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced legislation Tuesday aimed at preventing insider trading by members of Congress by barring them from trading individual stocks.

The Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments (PELOSI) Act would require lawmakers and their immediate family members to use qualified blind trusts – a method of investing in which an independent manager buys and sells assets without the knowledge or consent of the owner in order to avoid real or perceived conflicts of interest.

Under Hawley’s act, members who refuse to do so would be required to forfeit their stock to the US Treasury.

For too long, politicians in Washington have taken advantage of the economic system they write the rules for, turning profits for themselves at the expense of the American people,” Hawley said in a statement. “As members of Congress, both Senators and Representatives are tasked with providing oversight of the same companies they invest in, yet they continually buy and sell stocks, outperforming the market time and again.”

Last July, former Dallas fed president Richard Fisher slammed then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her husband Paul over allegations of insider trading.

Clearly people have taken advantage of inside information forever,” Fisher told CNBC, responding to a report from Punchbowl News. “I’m sorry to see that Paul Pelosi and Nancy Pelosi and others appear to have taken advantage of inside information.”

The Pelosis have repeatedly come under fire for the trades which appeared to be based on nonpublic information.

Recall, the last we wrote about Pelosi’s suspiciously good timing with her stock trades, we noted she had punted on several names heading into 2023. Prior to her trades being carefully scrutinized, Pelosi had a knack for minting cash from her stock trades, which we detailed here

In March of 2021, the Pelosis scored $1.95 million on Microsoft call options less than two weeks before the tech giant secured a $22 billion contract to supply US Army combat troops with augmented reality headsets, while in January of the same year, Paul Pelosi bought up to $1 million of Tesla calls before the Biden administration announced plans to push electric vehicles.

Pelosi notably opposed bans on stock trading in the 117th Congress.

Although some Democrats, including Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, supported a ban on trading in the 117th Congress, Democrats ultimately postponed voting on a package and did not pass legislation. Then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy promised the issue would be a priority for the GOP in the 118th Congress. -Daily Caller

The former Speaker has of course denied everything.

There is absolutely no reason for these two characters being on the house Intel committee

(zerohedge)

McCarthy Formally Rejects Schiff, Swalwell From House Intel Committee

WEDNESDAY, JAN 25, 2023 – 08:59 AM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday officially rejected Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) for seats on the House Intelligence Committee after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) nominated them on Saturday.

McCarthy has publicly stated that he wants to remove Schiff and Swalwell from the panel, arguing that Schiff has “lied to the American public” and that Swalwell’s past connection to a suspected Chinese spy makes him a security liability.

“I appreciate the loyalty you have to your Democrat colleagues, and I acknowledge your efforts to have two Members of Congress reinstated to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,” McCarthy wrote in a letter to Jeffries he shared on Twitter. 

“But I cannot put partisan loyalty ahead of national security, and I cannot simply recognize years of service as the sole criteria for membership on this essential committee. Integrity matters more.”

“As such, in order to maintain a standard worthy of this committee’s responsibilities, I am hereby rejecting the appointments of Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Eric Swalwell to serve on the Intelligence Committee,” he continued.

McCarthy told Jeffries the panel had been misused during the previous two Congresses, which had “severely undermined its primary national security and oversight missions—ultimately leaving our nation less safe.”

He added that he was committed to returning the panel to “one of genuine honesty and credibility that regains the trust of the American people.”

As speaker, McCarthy has the power to appoint “all select, joint, and conference committees ordered by the House,” according to the rules (pdf) of the House of Representatives. 

The House Intelligence Committee is a permanent select committee; Schiff and Swalwell served on it during the last Congress, with Schiff as chairman.

“Schiff has lied to the American public. He should not be on Intel,” chided McCarthy.

‘Denial of Seats’

Over the weekend, Jeffries urged McCarthy to accept the return of Schiff and Swalwell to the panel, saying that denying them seats runs counter to the panel’s mission.

“I write today to submit for renomination two eminently qualified legislators to continue their service on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence: Ranking Member Adam Schiff and Representative Eric Swalwell of California,” Jeffries wrote in a letter (pdf) on Jan. 21.

“It is my understanding that you intend to break with the longstanding House tradition of deference to the minority party Intelligence Committee recommendations and deny seats to Ranking Member Schiff and Representative Swalwell,” he continued.

“The denial of seats to duly elected Members of the House Democratic Caucus runs counter to the serious and sober mission of the Intelligence Committee.”

McCarthy indicated his intention to remove the pair in June last year if the GOP won the House, and in interviews with media on Jan. 9, said he’d remove Schiff, Swalwell, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from their committee assignments.

“Swalwell can’t get a security clearance in the private sector,” McCarthy told AP and Punchbowl, likely referring to reports that Swalwell was targeted by a suspected Chinese spy.

“I’m not going to give him a government security clearance.”

Precedent Disputed

According to House rules, no more than 13 members of the same party can be on a panel. Typically, the speaker of the House has given the minority leader the power to choose members for the panel, but this time, McCarthy has not done so, claiming that Democrats set this precedent in the past.

“The Democrats have created a new thing where they’re picking and choosing who can be on committees,” McCarthy told Breitbart News on Jan. 9.

“Never in the history [of Congress] have you had the majority tell the minority who can be on committee. But this new standard, which these Democrats have voted for—if Eric Swalwell cannot get a security clearance in the private sector, there is no reason why he should be given one to be on Intel or Homeland Security. He will not be serving there.”

Jeffries addressed this reasoning in his Jan. 21 letter, arguing that the two Republican members were removed from their committee assignments by a bipartisan vote in the House for “directly inciting violence against their colleagues.”

“This action was taken by both Democrats and Republicans given the seriousness of the conduct involved, particularly in the aftermath of a violent insurrection and attack on the Capitol,” Jeffries wrote.

“It does not serve as precedent or justification for the removal of Representatives Schiff and Swalwell, given that they have never exhibited violent thoughts or behavior.”

In 2021, the House voted to remove Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) from their committee assignments because of social media posts they had made that were considered controversial.

Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), then-speaker, also rejected McCarthy’s nominations of Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) for the Jan. 6 Committee, prompting McCarthy, then-minority leader, to withdraw the rest of his nominations in protest.

In his letter, Jeffries did not mention that dispute but said he believed there was a lack of consistency, as Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who recently faced criticism for misrepresenting his education and work experience, has been given positions on two committees. Jeffries wrote that this inconsistency “risks undermining the spirit of bipartisan cooperation that is so desperately needed in Congress.”

Schiff, Swalwell and Omar said in a statement that McCarthy “capitulated to the right wing of his caucus” and “struck a corrupt bargain in his desperate, and nearly failed, attempt to win” the Speakership.

“Despite these efforts, McCarthy won’t be successful. We will continue to speak out against extremism and doggedly defend our democracy.”

McCarthy:

THE KING REPORT

The King Report January 25, 2023 Issue 6934Independent View of the NewsBOJ Owns More Than 100% of Some Debt as Bonds Go Round and Round – BBGIncrease in BOJ bond lending leads to ownership discrepancyBOJ will have to end yield target sooner or later: SMBC Nikkohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/boj-owns-more-than-100-of-some-debt-as-bonds-go-round-and-round
 
Japan 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Rise to 2-Week High – BBG
The 10-year CPI-linked bonds rose 3 basis points to 0.69% on Tuesday…
 
FTSE 100 dips after weak economic data fans recession fears
UK PMI falls at fastest rate in 2 years…   http://reut.rs/3HuCvuW
 
The S&P Global/CIPS flash composite UK PMI fell to 47.8 in January from 49.0 in December; 48.8 was expected.  The UK Mfg PMI rose to 46.7 from 45.3; 45.5 was consensus.  The UK Services PMI sank to 48 from 49.9; 49.5 was expected.  The Jan CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Trends Total Orders index dropped to -17 from -6; -8 was consensus.
 
UK stocks ignored the S&P Global/CIPS PMIs; but they declined smartly on the negative CBI.
 
Justice Dept. sue Google over digital advertising dominance
The government alleges that Google’s plan to assert dominance has been to “neutralize or eliminate” rivals through acquisitions and to force advertisers to use its products by making it difficult to use competitors’ products… https://apnews.com/article/justice-department-sues-google-c6afce17327b30a098b1bd6a7e947b81
 
Glitch at NYSE halts trading in dozens of blue-chip stocks(>75 stocks effected)
Companies including ExxonMobil and McDonald’s among ‘subset’ affected by problems
https://www.ft.com/content/f53e3159-ab98-4926-ab41-63a577355825
 
Tuesday’s King Report: Traders got too jiggy on Monday as evinced by the midday tumble.  The usual late rally kept stocks buoyant.
 
ESHs traded lower for most of Nikkei trading; a modest late rally pushed ESHs into positive territory.  However, after the Nikkei closed, ESHs retreated into negative territory.  ESHs and European stocks did a slow rollover until they broke lower near 4:40 ET.  The decline persisted until the pre-NYSE open rally.
 
ESHs hit a bottom at 9:38 ET.  ESHs then gyrated wildly as the usual suspects aggressively bought the opening dip and sellers ‘fed the fishies.’   At 10:48 ET, ESHs broke higher, but the rally ended quickly.  ESHs and stocks then went back to gyrating in a wide range.  At 13:39 ET, traders pushed ESHs above its upper range bound to a minor new daily high.  ESHs quickly retreated into the prior range.  The pre-last hour rally pushed ESHs 1.50 from the high.  The rally stalled when the close struck 15:00 ET.
 
ESHs and stocks then rolled over.  At 15:15 ET, ESMs and stocks went inert.  At 15:30 ET, ESMs broke down.  At 15:50 ET, someone juiced ESHs to embellish their marks for the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJIA rallied while the other major indices declined
USHs rallied as much as 1 9/32; the DJUA rallied 0.763%
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Activity was listless, and the DJTA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the NY Fang+ declined
Precious metals continue to rally
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
If stocks soar into the Feb 1 FOMC, what will the Fed do?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4012.20
Previous session High/Low4023.92; 3989.79
 
GOP Sen. Hawley introduces Pelosi Act banning lawmakers from trading stocks https://trib.al/6uLaLDF
 
@Scutty: Market-based inflation measures starting to perk up again.  5Y5Y breakevens +20bps in quick time. Not the kind of move normally associated with rampant risk takinghttps://t.co/qigVQaYBSQ
 
@MichaelAArouet: And just like that financial conditions are where they were before rate hikes (BBG) https://t.co/PatXGc5KXB
 
After the close, Microsoft reported EPS of 2.32 (2.30 exp) and Revenue of $52.75B, $52.93B expected.  MSFT soared 5% on the 2-cent EPS beat.  The revenue miss was ignored cuz cloud sales were +18%.  But in a conference call the MSFT CFO said Cloud sales would slow.  MSFT tumbled to a 1% loss.
 
@charliebilello: Microsoft’s revenues increased 2% over the last year, the slowest YoY growth rate since Q2 2017https://t.co/xkprg5A5cd
 
@Stephanie_Link: MSFT:  Pretty sure I am not buying something that sells at 24x forward EPS with GAAP OI down 8%, NI down 12% and EPS down 11%.  Non-GAAP just as bad.  No touch for now.
 
Texas Instruments’ Sales Drop for the First Time Since 2020
Revenue in the first quarter will be $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion, the company said Tuesday, compared with an average of analysts’ estimates of $4.41 billion. Profit will be $1.64 to $1.90 a share, versus a prediction of $1.86… https://www.yahoo.com/now/texas-instruments-sales-drop-first-212107137.html
 
Today –Traders are extremely bullish and believe that upward seasonal biases can thwart most negatives.  However, the midday decline on Monday and the last-hour weakness on Tuesday suggest that stocks are tired.  Equities need organic buying in coming days to keep the rally robust.
 
A key for today could be how Microsoft & Fangs perform.  Many traders are beaucoup long Fangs!
 
ESHs are -21.25 at 20:35 ET on MSFT and TXN.  What will traders do with all those Fang holdings?
 
Expected earnings: ADP 1.93, GD 3.54, FCX .43, ABT .91, TXT 1.07, BA .29, HES 1.68, USB 1.04, NSC 3.43, T .56, KMB 1.51, IBM 3.58, PKG 2.23, TSLA 1.12, CSX .47
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3933; 100-day MA: 3864; 150-day MA: 3911; 200-day MA: 3966
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,592; 100-day MA: 32,237; 150-day MA: 32,842; 200-day MA: 32,363
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3889.17 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3987.47 triggers a sell signal
 
Legal experts slam FBI’s failure to search Biden’s Rehoboth home as classified documents pile up
Turley: “It’s hard to understand why the FBI is still deliberating on whether to search the Rehoboth residence. There is a clear pattern here. The president has left a trail of classified documents wherever he has worked or lived. Yet the FBI does not appear sufficiently motivated to check one of his main residences.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/legal-experts-slam-fbis-failure-search-bidens-rehoboth-home-classified-documents-pile-up
 
House Judiciary Com Chair @Jim_Jordan: Joe Biden’s attorneys and DOJ had a shared understanding about keeping the classified documents scandal quiet.  In other words, they tried to cover it up.
 
Classified documents found at Pence’s Indiana home (Is Obama sacrosanct?)
A lawyer for former Vice President Mike Pence discovered about a dozen documents marked as classified at Pence’s Indiana home last week, and he has turned those classified records over to the FBI…
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/pence-classified-documents-fbi/index.html
 
@RepMattGaetz: There’s probably not a single presidential library in America that’s not out of some sort of technical compliance with the Presidential Records Act, which makes the FBI raid on Mar-A-Lago all the more ridiculous.” (September 2022)
  As I said in September, America has bigger problems than library disputes. The only reason criminality appends to paperwork kerfuffles is because they thought they could get Trump.
 
In prison interview, Ghislaine Maxwell argues that Epstein didn’t kill himself: ‘He was murdered’
https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/prison-interview-ghislaine-maxwell-argues-epstein-didnt-kill-himself-he-was-murdered
 
@DailyCaller: Tucker Carlson: “If you knew the details of their personal lives, you would understand their politics.  This is the party of weak men and unhappy women.”
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1617696308244156416
 
@TuckerCarlson: It didn’t take long for some Republicans to betray their voters. https://t.co/AANXw2TdIq
 
GOP @RepMTG: Antifa are the ground troops for the Democrat Party. Democrat House Minority Whip Katherine Clark’s son was arrested at another organized Antifa terrorist attack. No, not Atlanta, it was Boston.  Democrats not only support Antifa, they give birth to them and raise them.
 
Biden DOJ Behind Failure to Arrest Activists Illegally Protesting at Justices’ Homes, Experts Say
Why does [Attorney General] Merrick Garland still refuse to enforce federal law on the books, especially after the attempted assassination of Justice Kavanaugh?”…
https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/01/24/biden-doj-behind-failure-to-arrest-activists-illegally-protesting-at-justices-homes-experts-say/
 
@DrEliDavid: A new more dangerous Covid variant has been detected. It’s called BS-24/7. It attacks common sense and destroys evidence-based medicine. It’s spread via mainstream media, Fauci, & CDC.
 
Ukraine Rocked By Corruption Scandal, Wave Of Top Officials Resign: Sports Cars, Mansions & Luxury Vacations As People Suffered
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-rocked-corruption-scandal-wave-top-official-resignations-sports-cars-mansions
 
WSJ: Juvenile Crime Surges, Reversing Long Decline. ‘It’s Just Kids Killing Kids.’
Violence among children has soared across the country since 2020. One consequence: a mounting toll of young victims… In the U.S., homicides committed by juveniles acting alone rose 30% in 2020 from a year earlier, while those committed by multiple juveniles increased 66%. The number of killings committed by children under 14 was the highest in two decades…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/violent-crime-rate-juvenile-11674485556
 
‘Retire now or get fired’: Senate predictions spell trouble for Democrats in 2024
The election analysis (from left-leaning Cook Reportconsiders three Democratic seats to be “toss-ups” – held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio – all in states that former President Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/retire-now-get-fired-senate-predictions-spell-trouble-democrats-2024
 
Bill Gates has joined a slew of billionaires investing in an Australian climate tech startup that has plans to stop cows from burping methane https://t.co/sSsaAIvMFF
 
Trump declares himself the winner of his own club championship – in the Trumpiest way ever
The former president said he played a strong round two days before the tournament and decided that would count as his first-round score.  Competitors were surprised to see Trump ahead by 5 on second day… Trump says his “win” proves his “strength & stamina”… despite not playing the first round of the tournament…  https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/sports/2023/01/24/donald-trump-declares-himself-winner-of-his-own-golf-championship/69835418007/
 
The Catholic Church has been in de facto civil war for almost two decades.  The civil war is getting hot.
 
Secret Pope Benedict book is published blasting progressive Pope Francis, reveals US Catholic seminaries are havens of ‘gay clubs’ – Much of this activity is specifically in the United States, he wrote… According to leading Vatican analyst John Allen, the books contribute to “impressions of a mounting civil war in the Church following the death of Benedict XVI,” reports The Telegraph…
https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-secret-pope-benedict-book-is-published-blasting-progressive-pope-francis-reveals-us-catholic-seminaries-are-havens-of-gay-clubs
 

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter  interviewing Bill Holter// a must view

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=DmwnWsCPbRpPqbxJmbQrjKJqDdRndxQFWDQLdRVSLkstSlpRDsBlFZFRWSzKcwmkRBxtGGmPpTKG

One Giant Financial STD and Everybody is Infected – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On January 24, 2023 In MediaNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter said last summer that the Fed rate increases would tank the economy.  Everywhere you look you see the economy falling apart.  House prices and sales are down.  Banks are clocking record losses, vehicle prices are falling and unemployment is rising.  The economy has not completely crashed, but it will.  Holter explains, “There are over $2,000 trillion worth of derivatives outstanding on a global economy . . . that has maybe a little more than $500 trillion in asset values.  So, you have this dog walking around with a gigantic tail that will shake the dog.  When derivatives go, it’s a 48-hour event. Who do you think holds all these derivatives?  You’ve got the big banks, all the big brokers, all the big insurance companies and they are all going to go down.  It’s like one giant financial STD, and everybody is in bed together and everybody is infected.”

Add to this the announcement from Saudi Arabia that it will now accept payment in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and you have the makings of a destabilizing hyperinflationary catastrophe for America.  Holter says, “There will be other Arab nations to follow, and that is a huge hit to the artificial demand for the dollar.  You had nations all over the world who were forced to buy dollars to buy oil, and that is no longer.  Going one step further, these nations who have stockpiled huge dollar portfolios are no longer required to use dollars.  What do you think is going to happen to them?  Those dollars are going to come back to the U.S., and that will be a hugely inflationary event.  It will add many multiples to the dollar pie that thus will dilute the value.”

What is the Fed going to do?  Holter says, “The Fed is in a box. . . . They will have to make a choice to save the dollar or save the financial system.  They can’t save everything.  Something has to break.  I have said this for years, and that is there are already losses out there, but somebody has to own up to them.  Nobody has had to take the losses because everything has been papered over for so many years where losses were just kicked down the road, and there is no more road.”

Holter goes on to say, “The best way to sum it up is the facade that we have lived our lives through is ending and will completely end.  The reality is going to blow people’s minds.  That will be a depopulation event because people will be starving. . . . The Fed has always feared a deflationary collapse where it cannot inflate the system.  Credit is the foundation to the whole system.   If credit cracks and credits collapses, it means the foundation collapses and thus the entire house.”

It everything is collapsing in price, what happens to gold and silver prices.  Holter says, “Gold and silver are the only real money on the planet that cannot or will not default.”  Holter likes them both and adds, “Silver is the most undervalued asset out there right now.”

There is a lot more in the 48-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 1.24.23.

(https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=DmwnWsCPbRpPqbxJmbQrjKJqDdRndxQFWDQLdRVSLkstSlpRDsBlFZFRWSzKcwmkRBxtGGmPpTKG)

After the Interview: 

Bill Holter starts his new website early next month.  It will be BillHolter.com.  Be on the lookout for it

I will see you TOMORROW

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2 comments

  1. Harvey: DO you want to be a financial analysis and news site or a covid vaxcine and ukraine war misinformation site?

    Maybe you’d be better off having two separate blogs, one covering real news and info and one covering fake news and conspiracy bullshit.

    I’m serious

    Like

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