February 9//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $10.90 at $1867.45

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.14 to $22.13

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1861.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.97

Bitcoin morning price:, 22,720 DOWN 162 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,966 DOWN 916 dollars

Platinum price closing $982.60 UP $6.10

Palladium price; closing 1654.25 UP 3.30

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,505.16 DOWN $15.75 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1536.51 DOWN 16.75 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1734.20 DOWN 15.57 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,877.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/08/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 02/10/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 3
104 C MIZUHO 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 100
132 C SG AMERICAS 10 3
323 C HSBC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 42
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN 17 48
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 4
880 C CITIGROUP 16
905 C ADM 1

TOTAL: 131 131
MONTH TO DATE: 12,85

JPMORGAN STOPPED 48/131

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 131 NOTICES FOR 13100 OZ or 0.4074 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,856 contracts for 1,285,600 oz (39.988 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :714 for 3,570,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

///SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 0.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.76. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 647 CONTRACTS TO 132,954 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.22 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.22. AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 347 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 300 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP O// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 3.670 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 5.445 MILLION OZ//// V) TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -769

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 days, total 7846 contracts: OR 39,230 MILLION OZ . (1120 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 39.23 MILLION OZ (HUGE)

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 39.23 MILLION OZ/INITIAL//HEADING FOR A RECORD MONTH OF ISSUANCE!!

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 647 DESPITE OUR $0.22 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 300 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,0000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: 3.670 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 5.445 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE AN GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 422 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE//

WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 790 CONTRACTS TO 438,965 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed – 251 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1041 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $6.15 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5100 OZ //NEW STANDING: 43.076 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.15 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1719 OI CONTRACTS (5.3468 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2760 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 438,965

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1970 CONTRACTS WITH 790 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2760 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1970 CONTRACTS OR 5.7013 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2760 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1041) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1719 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5100 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

24,852 CONTRACTS OR 2,485,200 OZ OR 77.300 TONNES 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3550 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 77.300 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 77.300/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 77,3 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 647 CONTRACTS OI TO 132,954 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 300 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 300 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 647 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 347 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.735 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.22 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.28 PTS OR 1.18% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 340.84 PTS OR 1.60% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 22.11 PTS OR 0.08% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .58% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7768 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7821// /Oil UP TO 77.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.55 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 1041 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 438,714 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.15

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2760 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2760 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2760 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1719 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2760 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1041 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.15. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (43.076)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 43.076 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $6.15) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING MANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1719 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 5.3468 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5100 OZ OR 0.1587TONNES//new standing INCREASES TO 43.076 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.15.

WE HAD -251 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1719 CONTRACTS OR 171,900 OZ OR 5.3468 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 174,104//poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday 142,555/// poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 9//

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	546.56 oz 17 KILOBARS DELAWARE .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	131 notice(s) 13100 OZ 0.4074 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	933 contracts 93,300 oz 3.086 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,856 notices 1,285,600 39.988 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: NIL oz

customer withdrawals: 0

Adjustments; DEALER TO CUSTOMER

i) Brinks: 18,718.856 oz

ii) HSBC: 4670.640 o

iii) Out of JPMORGAN: 13,213.818 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1,124 contracts having lost 115 contracts. We had 166 notices

filed yesterday so we gained 51 contracts or an additional 5100 oz will stand for metal at the comex

March gained 10 contracts to stand at 2194.

April lost 2746 contracts down to 359,316

We had 131 notice(s) filed today for 13100 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 17 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 131 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 48 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,856 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 1124 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 131 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,384,900 OZ OR 43.076 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (12,856 x 100 oz+ 1124 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (131)x 100 oz} which equals 1,384,900 oz standing OR 43.076 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 43.076 TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIF39CATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 1,812,504.867 OZ 56.37 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,198,698.693 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,063,541.226 (344.122 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,135,107.467 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,251,937 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 287.74 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 9/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,057,665.674 oz CNT JPMorgan Loomis Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	663,525.220 oz Delaware Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	4 CONTRACT(S) (20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	714 contracts (3,570,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 2995.200 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 599,925.020 oz

Total deposits: 663,525.220 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.933 million oz/291.573 million =50.42% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals: 4

i)Out of CNT: 618,717.574 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 357,014.700 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 21,328.400 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 60,405.000 oz

Total withdrawals; 1,057,665.675 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.784MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 291.573 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI: 24 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 4 CONTRACT(S.).

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL

STAND AT THE COMEX.

March LOST 7296 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 80,559 contracts

April GAINED 12 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 23.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:4 for 20,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 72,344//good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 72m674 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 714 x 5,000 oz = 3,570,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(24) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:714 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (24 – number of notices served upon today (4) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 3.670 million oz + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 5.445MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 920.82 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.76 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

tons.

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

The reason that England will not release Venezuela’s gold is simple; it is not there! It has been leased out never to return

(McEvoy)

Guaidó Is Gone But London Still Keeping Venezuela’s Gold

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by John McEvoy via DeclassifiedUk.org.

Four years ago, the UK government recognised Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president. He’s now gone, but the Bank of England is still holding some of the country’s key assets…

In late December, Venezuela’s leading opposition parties voted to oust Juan Guaidó as “interim president” and dissolve his parallel government.

This was clearly not the ending the UK government had in mind.

Four years ago, the British government made the bold decision to recognise Guaidó as Venezuelan president, and proceeded to facilitate his legal battle to seize roughly $2bn of gold held in the Bank of England.

Indeed, the UK government insisted at every turn that it recognised Guaidó – and not Nicolás Maduro – as Venezuelan president. In turn, Guaidó’s lawyers argued that he was authorised to represent and control the assets of the Central Bank of Venezuela held in London.

Throughout this time, Guaidó paid his UK legal costs by drawing on millions of dollars of his country’s assets originally seized by the US government. In other words, Guaidó tried to seize Venezuelan state assets with looted Venezuelan state assets.

Meanwhile, it seems certain that the Foreign Office also used a significant amount of public funds to sustain its backing of Guaidó.

Now that Guaidó has been ousted, the legal argument for transferring the gold to the Venezuelan opposition has effectively disintegrated. Despite this, the gold remains frozen in the Bank of England, with no clear resolution in sight.

Whatever happens next, this case sets a precedent which could have far-reaching consequences: the UK’s coup weapons now include asset stripping a foreign state, and transferring those assets to political actors engaged in regime change.

This will surely serve as a warning to any state which plans to store its gold in the Bank of England.

Recognising Guaidó

The recognition of Guaidó was a key prerequisite for the Bank of England’s refusal to release Venezuela’s gold.

Guaidó had never run for presidential office. Yet on 23 January 2019, he swore himself in as Venezuelan “interim president”, using Article 233 of the Venezuelan constitution to declare that Maduro had abandoned his post and thereby left an “absolute vacuum of power”.

This vacuum, claimed Guaidó, would have to be filled by the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly – a post occupied by Guaidó.

Without the support of the US government, Guaidó’s legal gymnastics would probably not have gotten him very far. However, the Donald Trump administration moved quickly to recognise Guaidó, and began pressuring the so-called “international community” to follow suit.

The day after Guaidó’s self-swearing in, then UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt visited Washington and met key members of the Trump administration including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Vice President Mike Pence, and National Security Adviser John Bolton.

The political crisis in Venezuela was high on the agenda. Before meeting with Pompeo, Hunt told the press that “the United Kingdom believes Juan Guaido is the right person to take Venezuela forward. We are supporting the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina to make that happen”. This was a strong statement – but not yet recognition.

Documents obtained by Declassified show that Hunt was privately thanked by Pompeo and Bolton for this. However, Britain’s contribution to toppling Maduro would go further.

‘Delighted’ to freeze Venezuela’s gold

The Foreign Office is refusing to say whether its officials or ministers have had discussions with counterparts in the United States on the Venezuelan gold stored in the Bank of England since 2019.

In response to a Freedom of Information request, it also claimed that “the release of information relating to this case could harm our relations with the United States of America and Venezuela”.

Yet according to Bolton, Hunt was “delighted” to help with Washington’s destabilisation campaign in Venezuela, “for example freezing Venezuelan gold deposits in the Bank of England”.

The Bank’s directors, however, were uneasy about the legal implications of freezing a foreign state’s assets. The Bank of England had already refused to release Venezuela’s gold in 2018, citing doubts over the legitimacy of Maduro’s government, though they were on shaky legal ground.

The Foreign Office worked to ease their nerves. On 25 January 2019, Alan Duncan, the minister of state for Europe and the Americas, wrote in his diary that he held a phone call with Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, about Venezuela’s gold. He wrote:

“I tell Carney that I fully appreciate that, although it’s a decision for the Bank, he needs a measure of political air cover from us. I tell him I will write him the most robust letter I can get through the FCO lawyers, and it will outline the growing doubts over Maduro’s legitimacy and explain that many countries no longer consider him to be the country’s President”.

In other words, the Bank of England required a robust legal rationale for keeping Venezuela’s gold frozen, and the Foreign Office was happy to provide it with one.

One week later, on 4 February, Hunt went one step further by issuing an official statement recognising Guaidó “as the constitutional interim President of Venezuela, until credible presidential elections can be held”.

With this, the UK government had committed to the Washington-backed coup effort. Hunt apparently declared: “Venezuela is in their back yard, and it’s probably the only foreign adventure they might just pursue”.

When the Foreign Office was asked in parliament this month whether it received legal advice in recognising Guaidó as president, it replied “We do not comment on when legal advice has been received”.

The legal battle

The UK’s recognition of Guaidó triggered a protracted legal battle over the gold.

In May 2020, the Maduro government sued the Bank of England over its refusal to release the gold. The issue then moved to the courts, centring on whether the UK government recognised Guaidó, and if the Bank of England could therefore act on instructions from his “ad-hoc board” of the Central Bank of Venezuela.

Throughout this time, the UK government consistently supported Guaidó’s case by emphasising its recognition of him.

In 2020, for instance, the Foreign Office provided a written certificate to the courts to confirm that the UK still “recognises Juan Guaido as the constitutional interim President of Venezuela”.

In 2021, the Foreign Office even acquired the services of Sir James Eadie QC and Jason Pobjoy (of Blackstone Chambers) and Sir Michael Wood and Belinda McRae (of Twenty Essex) – some of the country’s top lawyers – to present its case on recognition of Guaidó at the Supreme Court.

It thus looks certain that the UK government has spent a significant amount of public funds on this case. This casts obvious doubts on the UK government’s claim that this is merely a matter for the Bank of England or the courts: the UK has invested both political and seemingly financial capital into this case, with the explicit intention of overthrowing the Maduro government.

Declassified asked the Government Legal Department how much was spent in legal costs on this case. A spokesperson for the Department said: “We will not comment further due to ongoing legal proceedings”.

With each hearing, Guaidó and his representatives also incurred substantial costs. Recently published accounts suggest that Guaidó’s team spent over $8.5m on legal fees – roughly £7m.

Remarkably, Guaidó’s UK legal fees were paid with money which was originally appropriated from the Venezuelan state in the US.

Guaidó gone

Guaidó and his representatives never managed to get their hands on the gold.

In the most recent hearing, in October 2022, judge Justice Cockerill granted the Maduro board permission to appeal, declaring that the issues at stake were “effectively unprecedented”, and that “the consequences of the decision have the potential to affect all the citizens of Venezuela”.

Indeed, the freezing of Venezuela’s gold has served as a form of collective punishment.

In 2021, United Nations special rapporteur on sanctions, Alena Douhan, urged the UK “and corresponding banks to unfreeze assets of the Venezuela Central Bank to purchase medicine, vaccines, food, medical and other equipment, spare parts and other essential goods to guarantee humanitarian needs of the people of Venezuela”.

With the issue still in the courts, Venezuela’s main opposition parties voted in December 2022 to remove Guaidó as “interim president” and dissolve his parallel government.

The UK government announced that it would “respect the result of this vote”, adding that: “The UK continues not to accept the legitimacy of the administration put in place by Nicolás Maduro”.

The legal basis for freezing Venezuela’s gold and transferring it to the Venezuelan opposition has therefore largely crumbled. Further hearings are expected later this year.

Whether the gold will remain frozen until Venezuela holds elections which are to the satisfaction of the UK government, or the courts will find that the case for freezing the gold has now collapsed, remains unclear.

The issue would be immediately resolved if the UK normalised relations with the Maduro government – though this would entail an embarrassing climb-down and would have to be worked out alongside Washington.

What’s clear is that the sanctions regime against Venezuela has failed to remove Maduro, but has harmed ordinary Venezuelans.

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: NICKEL +

They are at it again. Mega crook Gupta has been found to send cargos of nothing instead of nickel

This may bring down the entire base metal industry. Thus the reason for gold/silver falling (margin calls)

(zerohedge)

Giant Commodity Trader Faces Massive Losses After ‘Missing Nickel’ Fraud Uncovered

The global nickel trading market is once again in the spotlight.

Having been at the epicenter of a massive short-squeeze that almost shuttered the London Metal Exchange (and remains mired in litigation), Bloomberg reports that the nickel market has been rocked once again as one of the world’s largest commodity traders, Trafigura Group, is facing more than half a billion dollars in losses after discovering metal cargoes it bought didn’t contain the metal they were supposed to.

The giant commodity trader has recorded a $577 million impairment as a result of the fraud, and fired the group’s head of nickel and cobalt trading, Socrates Economou (though the company made it clear that this was a systematic fraud committed against it by an outside party, and does not believe that anyone at the company was complicit in the fraud.).

Trafigura said in a statement that it has started legal action against Indian businessman Prateek Gupta and several companies connected to him including TMT Metals and subsidiaries of UD Trading Group.

“Since late December 2022, a small proportion of the containers purchased from these companies have been inspected as they reached their destination, and were found not to contain nickel,” Trafigura said in the statement.

“The majority of the shipments remain in transit awaiting further inspection.”

This is yet another black mark for the metals-trading industry, which in recent years has been beset by tales of fake warehouse receipts, duplicate shipping documents and containers filled with painted rocks.

Finally, Bloomberg reports that nickel is a popular metal with fraudsters. Its high value means that a single container full can be worth $500,000, yet it is traded in relatively large volumes and without the strict security that accompanies shipments of precious metals like gold.

end

and this from Business Standard…

Trafigura faces $577 million loss after uncovering nickel fraud in India

https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/trafigura-faces-577-million-loss-after-uncovering-nickel-fraud-in-india-123020901371_1.html

end

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

What is Britcoin and why is the Bank of England so keen on it? | This is Money

Another idea dead on arrival ?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/crypto/article-11722305/What-Britcoin-Bank-England-keen-it.html

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.7768

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7821

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.28 PTS OR 1.18%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 340.84 PTS OR 1.60%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 22.11 PTS OR 0.08%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.72 Euro RISES TO 1.0771 UP 55 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.490!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.73/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.367%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.097%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.289…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.147//

3j Gold at $1881.30//silver at: 22.35 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 56/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 72.87//

3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.73/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .490% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9184– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9889 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.584% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.646 UP 7 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,83…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.269% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

end

i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rebound As Dollar Slides, Yields Drop

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 08:07 AM

US stocks were set to rebound following Wednesday’s slide, after Walt Disney announced it would fire 7,000 sending its stock surging (alongside mediocre earnings) as investors assessed corporate earnings reports and awaited the latest US jobless claims data. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 1.1% at 7:30 a.m. ET while S&P 500 futures added 0.8%. Both underlying indexes slumped more than 1% on Wednesday following a barrage of hawkish commentary by Fed officials. European stocks also advanced after positive earnings updates from heavyweights Siemens and AstraZeneca, although a stinker from Credit Suisse soured the mood. Asia was also solidly in the green. The dollar slid, Treasuries edged higher after a strong rally yesterday and an index of commodities rose.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Disney shares rose as much as 6.7% after the media company announced restructuring that includes 7,000 job cuts and $5.5 billion in cost savings. It also reported first-quarter sales and profit that beat estimates; streaming subs missed. Analysts noted strength in its Parks business and were optimistic about its Media division’s profitability. ProspectsCorp. surged as the mobile application technology company’s results exceeded estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Tesla jumped as much as 3.3% to $208 in US premarket trading, it is poised to double in value from a January low, boosted by a breakneck rally for growth stocks and signs that big price cuts are working to spur a demand rebound for the electric-vehicle maker.
Robinhood rises 5.1% in premarket trading after the online brokerage reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda that beat estimates. Co- founders of the company also canceled about $500 million of their share-based compensation. Analysts were positive about Robinhood’s focus on achieving lean growth and eventually turning profitable.
AppLovin shares jump as much as 30% in premarket trading after the mobile application technology company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations on key metrics. Analysts said the results and the outlook displayed resilience, noting that its next generation AXON platform could drive further growth.
Digital Turbine sinks 19% in premarket trading after the online growth platform operator’s third-quarter adjusted earnings per share missed estimates. Roth Capital points to a weaker advertising market.
Guardforce AI and SoundHound AI (SOUN US) lead fellow artificial intelligence-related stocks higher in US premarket trading. On Wednesday, the cohort was boosted by AI- related announcements by Alibaba and NetEase.
MGM Resorts shares rise 6.2% in US premarket after the the casino operator posted better than expected 4Q adjusted EBITDAR and authorized additional $2 billion for share buybacks, with at least 2 analysts raising their PT as Macau recovers and Las Vegas surprised to the upside.
Wynn Resorts shares rise 5.7% in premarket trading after the casino operator reported operating revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. “Las Vegas is starting to sizzle,” Jefferies said, while the Macau market is rapidly recovering post-pandemic.
O’Reilly Automotive’s strong top-line performance should be enough to offset any concerns that arise around the auto parts retailer’s slightly softer margin guidance, analysts say. Shares rose 2.9% in extended trading.
Sonos (SONO US) rose as much as 15% in premarket trading on Thursday after the audio-products maker reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates. Raymond James analysts noted that promotions during the holiday quarter boosted demand for Sonos speakers.

US stocks have oscillated this week as optimism around an easing in central bank policy sparked by Powell’s Tuesday’s remarks was tempered by a string of Federal Reserve speakers who reinforced the idea that interest rates will need to keep rising to tame inflation. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said market volatility is expected to remain high amid the debate between “the bullish narrative of an imminent peak in rates and the bearish narrative of a higher terminal rate.”

After a much stronger-than-expected jobs report last week, focus today will be on the latest weekly jobless claims figures. Economists expect a small increase in claims compared with the previous week.

“Investors are shaking off another case of the jitters over how far interest rates will go in the United States, as a raft of better than expected corporate results came in after the bell,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. After this week’s hawkish chorus, Fed-funds futures markets are pricing in higher rates, with some options traders betting the US policy benchmark will reach 6%.

“I don’t think the Fed will cut within this year,” Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, said on Bloomberg Television. “The Fed was behind the curve in terms of putting up their interest rate and they certainly are going to be very slow in cutting the interest rate.”

European stocks advanced for a third session, reaching the highest in almost a year, as investors weighed a slew of corporate earnings and greeted a slowdown in German inflation. The Stoxx 600 Index was up 1%, trading at highest level since February 2022 lifted by better-than-forecast results from firms including Siemens AG and AstraZeneca Plc. Industrials and banking stocks led gains, while the food, beverage and tobacco subindex was the worst performer, weighed down by declines in British American Tobacco Plc after the firm’s decision to end a buyback program disappointed some investors. Adding to positive sentiment Thursday, data showed that German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months, with consumer-price growth easing to 9.2% from 9.6% in December.

Among other companies that reported earnings today, Delivery Hero SE slumped after the food-delivery company missed estimates for gross merchandise value, while Credit Agricole SA and AstraZeneca Plc both gained after profit beat estimates. Credit Suisse Group AG slid after the Swiss lender reported a fifth-straight quarterly loss, with clients pulling a record amount of funds. Here are the most notable European movers today:

Standard Chartered jumped as much as 12% after Bloomberg reported that First Abu Dhabi Bank is pressing ahead with a potential offer for the UK lender.
AstraZeneca gains as much as 5.5% after its 4Q earnings beat estimates and after its Covid-19 treatment Evusheld had stronger-than-expected sales.
Legrand jumps as much as 8.2% after the French electrical-equipment manufacturer reported solid 2022 results, including adjusted operating margins that beat estimates.
Unilever shares rise as much as 1.4% after results reassured investors, with the consumer goods giant’s pricing and volumes staying resilient.
Aegon shares advance as much as 5.8% after the company posted a strong set of numbers and announced a buyback and dividend plan that were well received by the market.
Ipsen shares rose as much as 5.9% after the French pharmaceuticals group published better-than expected 4Q results.
KBC Group’s shares rise as much as 5.2% after the Belgian bank and insurer’s guidance for revenue and costs implies a “meaningful” increase to consensus, according to RBC.
British American Tobacco shares tumbled as much as 6.4%, the most in nearly two years, after the firm’s decision to end a share buyback program disappointed some investors.
Credit Suisse shares fell as much as 6.9% after the Swiss lender reported a fifth-straight quarterly loss and endured record client outflows that KBW analysts described as “quite staggering.”
Zurich Insurance shares drop as much as 3.2%, with Morgan Stanley saying that investors could be concerned about a miss for key profit driver Property & Casualty.
Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 11% after the food delivery firm failed to offer an outlook for gross merchandise value for 2023, adding to investor concerns.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged higher as Chinese shares gave the region a boost, offsetting renewed concerns over the trajectory of US interest rates after hawkish comments made by Federal Reserve officials. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier loss of 0.4% to rise 0.5%. Shares in China and Hong Kong jumped, fueled by the tech sector, as recent market optimism in AI-related stocks continued despite a warning against speculative trades from an official media. Concerns on geopolitical tensions eased after President Joe Biden denied that relations with Beijing have suffered a serious blow following a US decision to shoot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Meanwhile, benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan fell after the most-recent string of Fed speakers reinforced the idea that US rates will need to keep climbing to quash inflation. Asian equities have lost momentum after a strong start to the year, after a US jobs report last week stoked concerns over borrowing costs. Shares will likely remain volatile over the next few months, as the “expected softness in the economic outlook for developed markets may weigh on externally exposed sectors and markets,” said Soo Hai Lim, head of Asia ex-China equities at Barings.

Japanese equities closed mixed, as investors assessed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials on the need for further rate hikes in the US. The Topix Index rose 0.1% to 1,985.00 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.1% to 27,584.35. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.4%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,141 rose and 900 fell, while 122 were unchanged. “Growing concerns about monetary tightening and the economy in the US are also affecting Japanese stocks,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management. “Investors are also watching the quarterly earnings results and the uncertainty is increasing amid potential slowdown in US economy.”

Indian stocks rose for a second session as software exporters continued to surge. Adani Group stocks resumed decline after a two-day rally as index firm MSCI said it was reviewing the amount of shares linked to the group that were freely tradable in public markets. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to 60,806.22 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.1%. Eight out of BSE 20 sector-gauges rose while rest declined. A gauge of commodities companies was the worst performer, followed by power producers. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose, while 13 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers while the Swedish krone outperformed after the Riskbank hiked rates 50bps and pointed to another increase in the spring. The euro rose for a first day in six and European bonds advanced, snapping a four-day run of declines, after German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months. Consumer-price growth eased to 9.2% from 9.6% in December

Sweden’s krona led G-10 gains and surged by as much as 1.3% to 11.2070 per euro, while the sovereign yield curve bear- steepened after the Riksbank announced it will begin to sell nominal and real government bonds with longer maturities at a nominal value of SEK3b and SEK0.5b respectively per month, starting in April. The central bank also raised its key policy rate by 50bps, to 3%, as widely expected. The central bank also said that “a stronger krona would be desirable”
Japanese yen dipped after Bloomberg report suggesting there would likely be division among the country’s ruling party if Hirohide Yamaguchi was to be appointed as next BOJ governor
Australian and New Zealand currencies both climbed with local yields as talk of a possible rate cut in China fed optimism

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve which steepened very modestly, led by core European rates, particularly bunds and gilts, after German inflation slowed more than the median estimate in January. US yields are richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve, new 10-year around 3.59% vs Wednesday’s 3.613% auction stop; bunds, gilts outperform by 9bp and 8bp in the sector following soft German inflation. European bonds are also in the green with German and UK 10-year yields both lower by 7bps. Focal point of the US session focus is conclusion of auction cycle with 30-year bond sale at 1pm New York time. The week’s refunding auction cycle concludes today with $21BN 30-year new Treasury issue; Wednesday’s 10-year stopped 3bp below the WI level with record low dealer allotment; WI 30-year yield at 3.670% is 8.5bp cheaper than January’ auction, which stopped 2.4bp through.

In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.3% to trade near $78.70. Russia’s Kremlin says there could be delays in the Turkish Gas Hub implementation following quakes, but plans will be fulfilled. Spot gold rises roughly 0.3% to trade near $1,882.

Coinbase CEO Armstrong said he’s heard rumours that the US SEC would like to ban cryptocurrency staking, but added that he hopes this is not the case as it would be a terrible path for the US if it happens, according to CoinDesk.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the delayed German CPI release for January, as well as the US weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, as well as the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, Nagel and de Cos. Lastly, an EU leaders’ summit will be taking place in Brussels.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,158.25
MXAP up 0.5% to 167.72
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 548.10
Nikkei little changed at 27,584.35
Topix little changed at 1,985.00
Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 21,624.36
Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,270.38
Sensex up 0.2% to 60,764.80
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,490.33
Kospi little changed at 2,481.52
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 462.87
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.32%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.0756
Brent Futures down 0.1% to $84.98/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,880.61
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 103.05

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Beijing lashed out at President Joe Biden for saying Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces “enormous problems,” underscoring the renewed tensions between the two nations since the US downing of a balloon in its airspace
Japan’s LDP Said to Be Divided If Kishida Seeks BOJ Pivot
Investors are piling into the longer end of the Treasuries market even in the face of increased anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish enough to substantially hike its benchmark interest rate in the coming months
The UK is in the final stages of negotiating a so-called Green Economy Framework agreement with Singapore, seeking to capitalize on its experience with new technologies to boost trade and investment post-Brexit
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said inflation in the euro area’s second- largest economy should peak in the first half and start to ease from the middle of the year
Italy is ready to support relaxing EU state aid rules to boost investments in green technologies in exchange for more flexibility on how to use EU recovery funds, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told Sole 24 Ore
Some traders in India’s bond market are betting that the central bank may have actually reached the peak of its rate hikes, even as the monetary authority sounded hawkish in its policy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness after the losses in the US where risk assets were pressured as markets focused on the hawkish aspects of the recent two-sided remarks from Fed officials. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and utilities with the latter not helped by a near-10% slump in AGL Energy after H1 generation volumes fell 7% Y/Y and it cut its FY guidance. Nikkei 225 was subdued with individual stock movers influenced by the slew of earnings results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were initially lacklustre amid the absence of any major catalysts but shrugged off the opening losses and edged higher after the PBoC’s liquidity injection which provided some relief against the rising funding costs from a recent jump in loan demand.

Top Asian News

PBoC injected CNY 453bln via 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 2.00% for a CNY 387bln net injection.
US President Biden answered no when asked if relations with China have taken a big hit, while he added that the US is going to compete fully with China but is not looking for conflict which has been the case so far, according to a PBS interview.
White House said Chinese balloons have been spotted over countries across five continents and the US has been in touch with allies on this issue, while Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said Japan is exchanging information with the US on China’s spy balloon, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry regarding Australia ordering checks on China-made cameras within defence offices, says they hope Australia provides a fair environment for Chinese Cos.; welcomes US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s willingness to visit China.
Chinese Defence Ministry says it declined a proposed phone call with the US because the US side did not create an appropriate atmosphere.

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, with the region benefitting from a particularly heavy earnings docket with heavyweights including Siemens and AstraZeneca particularly well received. As such, sectors are in the green and feature outperformance in Industrial and Healthcare names. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board as the region recovers from Wednesday’s Fed speak induced downside, NQ +1.2% modestly outperforms as yields ease.

Top European News

UK Chancellor Hunt is under pressure from the CBI to provide tax breaks in the budget to avert a recession, according to The Times.
Germany’s DIHK expects the German economy to stagnate this year vs. prev. forecast of a 3% contraction; firms are also more optimistic about the outlook.
Leonteq Drops as ZKB Expects 2023 to Be More Difficult
Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Tours Europe With Calls for More Aid
Unilever Sees Consumer Backlash Worsening on Inflation

Central Banks

Riksbank raises its Policy Rate by 50bps vs exp. 50bps to 3.00%; decided to reduce Riksbank asset holding at a faster pace, effective from April; The policy rate will probably be raised further during the spring. Peak 3.33% (prev. 2.84%). adding, a stronger SEK would be desirable.
Riksbank’s Governor Thedeen says the rate path indicates either a 25bps or 50bps hike in April, recent weakness in the SEK is hard to explain.
BoE Governor Bailey says expects inflation to come down rapidly this year, very tight labour market. Current high level of inflation reflects the very high level of first-round effects, not second-round effects. Base effects will provide powerful negative trajectory on UK inflation in 2023.
BoE Chief Economist Pill says we are now seeing some signs of loosening in labour market data; expect some margin of economic slack to emerge. There is substantial monetary policy tightening still to come through as a result of lags in transmission; that said, there is no room for complacency. Inflation remains unacceptably high.
BoE’s Tenreyro says in her views rates are currently too high.
BoE’s Haskel says he finds his expectations for inflation to be towards the upper part of that distribution. Economic theory suggests that uncertainty around the persistence of inflation should be met with more forceful action, and so shall remain alert to indications that inflation is more persistent than we expected, and act forcefully if necessary.
Japan’s ruling LDP is said to be divided if PM Kishida seeks a BoJ pivot. Reports notes that people say Yamaguchi as BoJ head choice would be controversial. Elsewhere, the Japanese government plans to present nominees for new BoJ governor and officials with parliament early next week, according to NHK; TBS suggest February 14th.

Swedish Crown flies following hawkish Riksbank hike and comments from the new Governor, EUR/SEK breaches tech and psych supports on the way down from 11.3510 to sub-11.1600.
Dollar suffers fallout as DXY slips through 103.000 with additional loss of safety premium amidst buoyant risk appetite; down to 102.80 at worst.
Kiwi, Aussie and Pound post strong gains due to high beta and cyclical properties, NZD/USD scales 0.6350, AUD/USD above 0.6975 and Cable over 1.2150.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7905 vs exp. 6.7900 (prev. 6.7752)

Fixed Income

Core benchmarks are bid and at the top-end of the session’s ranges following the delayed release of sub-consensus German Prelim. CPI.
Specifically, Bunds have tested 137.00 at best while Gilts are just above 105.50 and USTs at the top-end of 113.23 to 113.13+ parameters.
Stateside, yields are lower across the curve after Wednesday’s upside following hawkish Fed speak and ahead of IJC and a 30yr outing.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are consolidating in relatively narrow sub-USD 1/bbl parameters after yesterday’s stronger settlement and amid a weaker USD and improving broader risk sentiment.
Spot gold has been meandering higher as the USD continues to retreat, though the yellow metals remains someway from USD 1900/oz near Wednesday’s USD 1886/oz peak.
Russia’s Kremlin says there could be delays in the Turkish Gas Hub implementation following quakes, but plans will be fulfilled.

Geopolitics

German Chancellor Scholz said will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, while he added Russia must not win the war and that Ukraine belongs to the European family, according to Reuters.
Russian Kremlin, on Ukraine’s request for UK fighter planes, says this will draw out the conflict.
North Korea unveiled a potentially new solid-fuel ICBM during a night-time parade, according to analysts citing commercial satellite imagery. Yonhap reported that North Korean leader Kim oversaw the military parade and North Korean state media later confirmed that a military parade was held in Pyongyang which displayed ICBMs and demonstrated the greatest nuclear strike capability, as well as featured tactical nuclear operations units, according to KCNA

US Event Calendar

08:30: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.66m
08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 190,000, prior 183,000

DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

Readers from yesterday’s EMR will be pleased to know the glamour of business travel is back after three very nice meals in Paris over the last 24 hours after a disastrous late-night trawl of the back streets for food the night before. I had to go to the gym at 5am and 6pm to offset it though. I suspect intake still exceeded output! We had a big DB macro dinner last night and the view I found most interesting was the bearishness on Euro government rates. A vast majority of the table voted for higher Euro rates over lower as the next move. It was a bit more neutral to slightly bullish for Treasuries. Our co-head of Euro rates sales warned that the retail flows we’re seeing in Euro Government bonds were relatively small in ticket size but relentless this year and maybe caution against the European trade a little.

So consistent inflows versus hawkishness seems to be sizing up to be a decent battle at the moment and over the last 24 hours the hawkish drumbeat from central bankers continued and a rise in yields and terminal was the prevailing theme for most of the day. As Europe went home, 10yr Treasuries hit 3.69% and US terminal 5.18% – a level that would have marked the highest close of the cycle had it held. However, after a surprisingly strong 10yr US auction, 10yr yields rallied -8bps into the bell and closed down -6.4bps on the day to 3.61%. The rally would have been bigger if not for higher inflation breakevens, with the 10yr breakeven up to a 2-month high of 2.356%, whilst the 2yr breakeven hit its highest level in nearly 3 months at 2.629%. So that fits into a picture of growing doubt over recent days about whether inflation will remain as calm as previously hoped, particularly given a few indicators like higher used car prices which we talked about in yesterday’s EMR and in our CoTD (link here).

Interesting the S&P 500 barely budged from European closing level even with the c.+8bps rally in 10yr US yields from that point. The damage from the earlier hawkish commentary held and we closed -1.11%. But even with this decline, it’s worth noting that the index is still just above the levels before Fed Chair Powell started speaking on Tuesday, so this is only bringing us back to that point. Even with the late rally in rates, the NASDAQ (-1.68%) also closed at around its European levels. US markets weren’t helped by Alphabet closing -7.68% after its new AI tool Bard showed inaccuracies in a demo. The company lost around $100bn of market cap in the process which shows the high stakes and competitive pressures of the new technology.

Back in Europe, equities here were an outperformer with the STOXX 600 hitting its highest intraday level since April before losing a bit of ground into the close to finish up just +0.28%.

In terms of the hawkish remarks themselves, New York Fed President Williams opened the day, saying that he thought a terminal rate of 5-5.25% was still a reasonable view. But he also commented the wage growth was still “well above” levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target, and acknowledged that “there’s definitely scenarios where inflation ends up being more persistent for various reasons”. Then Fed Governor Cook struck a similar tone to Fed Chair Powell last week, and said “I think we are not done yet with raising interest rates”. Later on in the day, Governor Waller joined the chorus and further noted that “It might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting.” Lastly, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter this year) told the Boston Economic Club that “There’s not yet much evidence, in my judgment, that the rate hikes that we’ve done so far are having much effect on the labor market…we need to do more”. He also stated that he needed to see wage growth around 3% to feel confident that inflation was coming back to trend.

Before the late US rally, yields on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps) and OATs (+2.2bps) both hit a one-month high. That followed a similar round of comments from ECB officials, including Vice President de Guindos who said that “it might well be that financial markets are too optimistic with regard to inflation and our monetary-policy response”. That was followed up with comments from the ECB’s Knot, who said that “if underlying inflation pressures do not materially abate, maintaining the current (50bps) pace of hikes into May could well remain warranted.” Watch out for the delayed German inflation numbers this morning just after we go to press.

The overnight losses on Wall Street are weighing on Asian equity markets this morning. As I type, the Nikkei (-0.32%) and the KOSPI (-0.15%) are in the red while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.56%) is also trading in negative territory. Bucking the negative trend are Chinese stocks with the CSI (+0.75%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.62%) and the Hang Seng (+0.34%) all edging higher, after reversing initial losses. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are showing a bit of a rebound with those on the S&P 500 (+0.22%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.27%) trading higher.

On the oil front, prices have somewhat stabilised overnight after advancing more than +6% over the last three trading sessions with Brent futures (-0.04%) trading at $85.06/bbl as we go to print.

Elsewhere, financial markets in Turkey have continued to slump following the devastating earthquake on Monday. Yesterday saw the BIST 100 index shed a further -7.09%, before trading on the stock exchange was suspended until February 15, marking the first time in 24 years that trading has been stopped. Furthermore, all trades executed yesterday before the closure were cancelled. Up until the closure, the index had been down -16.24% since the start of the week.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Sentiment is firmer across the board, DXY sub-103.00 as yields ease; SEK leads – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 06:33 AM

European bourses are firmer across the board with the region benefitting from a heavy earnings docket, heavyweights including Siemens and AstraZeneca were particularly well received.
Stateside, futures are firmer across the board as the region recovers from Wednesday’s Fed-speak-induced downside, NQ +1.2% modestly outperforms as yields ease.
DXY continues to pull back and is sub-103.00, with high-betas and cyclicals outperforming. SEK bolstered by a hawkish Riksbank hike.
EGBs are bid and at the top-end of the session’s ranges following the delayed release of sub-consensus German Prelim. CPI.
Commodities are consolidating somewhat, though are beginning to benefit from the USD’s pullback and broader tone.
Looking ahead, highlights include EU Leaders Summit, Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos, Supply from US, Earnings from L’Oreal, Euronext Phillip Morris, AbbVie, PayPal & Kellogg.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, with the region benefitting from a particularly heavy earnings docket with heavyweights including Siemens and AstraZeneca particularly well received.
As such, sectors are in the green and feature outperformance in Industrial and Healthcare names.
Stateside, futures are firmer across the board as the region recovers from Wednesday’s Fed speak induced downside, NQ +1.2% modestly outperforms as yields ease.
Click here for more detail.

FX

Swedish Crown flies following hawkish Riksbank hike and comments from the new Governor, EUR/SEK breaches tech and psych supports on the way down from 11.3510 to sub-11.1600.
Dollar suffers fallout as DXY slips through 103.000 with additional loss of safety premium amidst buoyant risk appetite; down to 102.80 at worst.
Kiwi, Aussie and Pound post strong gains due to high beta and cyclical properties, NZD/USD scales 0.6350, AUD/USD above 0.6975 and Cable over 1.2150.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7905 vs exp. 6.7900 (prev. 6.7752)
Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

Core benchmarks are bid and at the top-end of the session’s ranges following the delayed release of sub-consensus German Prelim. CPI.
Specifically, Bunds have tested 137.00 at best while Gilts are just above 105.50 and USTs at the top-end of 113.23 to 113.13+ parameters.
Stateside, yields are lower across the curve after Wednesday’s upside following hawkish Fed speak and ahead of IJC and a 30yr outing.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are consolidating in relatively narrow sub-USD 1/bbl parameters after yesterday’s stronger settlement and amid a weaker USD and improving broader risk sentiment.
Spot gold has been meandering higher as the USD continues to retreat, though the yellow metals remains someway from USD 1900/oz near Wednesday’s USD 1886/oz peak.
Russia’s Kremlin says there could be delays in the Turkish Gas Hub implementation following quakes, but plans will be fulfilled.
Click here for more detail.

CENTRAL BANKS

Riksbank raises its Policy Rate by 50bps vs exp. 50bps to 3.00%; decided to reduce Riksbank asset holding at a faster pace, effective from April; The policy rate will probably be raised further during the spring. Peak 3.33% (prev. 2.84%). adding, a stronger SEK would be desirable.
Riksbank’s Governor Thedeen says the rate path indicates either a 25bps or 50bps hike in April, recent weakness in the SEK is hard to explain.
BoE Governor Bailey says expects inflation to come down rapidly this year, very tight labour market. Current high level of inflation reflects the very high level of first-round effects, not second-round effects. Base effects will provide powerful negative trajectory on UK inflation in 2023.
BoE Chief Economist Pill says we are now seeing some signs of loosening in labour market data; expect some margin of economic slack to emerge. There is substantial monetary policy tightening still to come through as a result of lags in transmission; that said, there is no room for complacency. Inflation remains unacceptably high.
BoE’s Tenreyro says in her views rates are currently too high.
BoE’s Haskel says he finds his expectations for inflation to be towards the upper part of that distribution. Economic theory suggests that uncertainty around the persistence of inflation should be met with more forceful action, and so shall remain alert to indications that inflation is more persistent than we expected, and act forcefully if necessary.
Japan’s ruling LDP is said to be divided if PM Kishida seeks a BoJ pivot. Reports notes that people say Yamaguchi as BoJ head choice would be controversial. Elsewhere, the Japanese government plans to present nominees for new BoJ governor and officials with parliament early next week, according to NHK; TBS suggest February 14th.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

UK Chancellor Hunt is under pressure from the CBI to provide tax breaks in the budget to avert a recession, according to The Times.
Germany’s DIHK expects the German economy to stagnate this year vs. prev. forecast of a 3% contraction; firms are also more optimistic about the outlook.

DATA RECAP

UK RICS Housing Survey (Jan) -47 (Prev. -42.0)
German CPI Prelim YY (Jan) 8.7% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prev. 8.6%); MM (Jan) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.8%)
German HICP Prelim YY (Jan) 9.2% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 9.6%); MM (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -1.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US Treasury Secretary Yellen says that increases in interest rates are a drag on the federal budget although have been built into budget projections.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.

CRYPTO

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Armstrong said he’s heard rumours that the US SEC would like to ban cryptocurrency staking, but added that he hopes this is not the case as it would be a terrible path for the US if it happens, according to CoinDesk.

GEOPOLITICS

German Chancellor Scholz said will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, while he added Russia must not win the war and that Ukraine belongs to the European family, according to Reuters.
Russian Kremlin, on Ukraine’s request for UK fighter planes, says this will draw out the conflict.
North Korea unveiled a potentially new solid-fuel ICBM during a night-time parade, according to analysts citing commercial satellite imagery. Yonhap reported that North Korean leader Kim oversaw the military parade and North Korean state media later confirmed that a military parade was held in Pyongyang which displayed ICBMs and demonstrated the greatest nuclear strike capability, as well as featured tactical nuclear operations units, according to KCNA

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness after the losses in the US where risk assets were pressured as markets focused on the hawkish aspects of the recent two-sided remarks from Fed officials.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and utilities with the latter not helped by a near-10% slump in AGL Energy after H1 generation volumes fell 7% Y/Y and it cut its FY guidance.
Nikkei 225 was subdued with individual stock movers influenced by the slew of earnings results.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were initially lacklustre amid the absence of any major catalysts but shrugged off the opening losses and edged higher after the PBoC’s liquidity injection which provided some relief against the rising funding costs from a recent jump in loan demand.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC injected CNY 453bln via 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 2.00% for a CNY 387bln net injection.
US President Biden answered no when asked if relations with China have taken a big hit, while he added that the US is going to compete fully with China but is not looking for conflict which has been the case so far, according to a PBS interview.
White House said Chinese balloons have been spotted over countries across five continents and the US has been in touch with allies on this issue, while Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said Japan is exchanging information with the US on China’s spy balloon, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry regarding Australia ordering checks on China-made cameras within defence offices, says they hope Australia provides a fair environment for Chinese Cos.; welcomes US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s willingness to visit China.
Chinese Defence Ministry says it declined a proposed phone call with the US because the US side did not create an appropriate atmosphere.

1.c THURSDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

3c CHINA /

CHINA/

From the debris, it looks like it was a spy balloon and that the Chinese military has targeted over 40 countries

(zerohedge)

US Links China’s Military To ‘Balloon Surveillance Program’ That Targeted Over 40 Countries

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 11:55 AM

As debris from the shot-down Chinese balloon recovered from the Atlantic Ocean presumably continues to be analyzed, US officials have been cited in Reuters and The Wall Street Journal to describe that the alleged spy balloon was part of a much bigger than previously believed “balloon surveillance program” by China which has targeted over 40 countries.

“The United States will also explore taking action against PRC entities linked to the PLA that supported the balloon’s incursion into U.S. airspace,” a senior State Department official said in a statement released Thursday.

“We are confident that the balloon manufacturer has a direct relationship with China’s military and is an approved vendor of the PLA, according to information published in an official procurement portal for the PLA,” the official said.US Navy: The Harpers Ferry class amphibious warfare ship USS Carter Hall sails in the background as Navy sailors recover a portion of the Chinese spy balloon’s envelope.

But notably, the State Department did not reveal whether ongoing examination of the actual wreckage from the balloon that passed over the United States late last week before it was shot down Saturday off the South Carolina coast is primarily informing the current assessment.

However, The Wall Street Journal does hint that the recovered debris points in the direction of it being a spy balloon:

The Chinese balloon that crossed the U.S. was outfitted with antennas likely capable of collecting communications, a senior State Department official said Thursday, adding that the Biden administration is preparing to take action against China’s surveillance program.

Providing details the U.S. has gathered since tracking and shooting down the balloon, the official said the balloon was also equipped with large solar panels capable of powering an array of intelligence-collection sensors. The manufacturer of the balloon has a direct relationship with the Chinese military, the official added.

The statements provide less than certainty, given the official used qualifiers such as it being “likely capable” of collecting communications, and further that its solar panels are “capable” of powering intelligence-collection sensors. At this point it seems a smoking gun has yet to be presented for public view based on the actual balloon shot down.

According to more via Reuters, describing the Chinese balloon manufacturer, “The company also advertises balloon products on its website and hosts videos from past flights, which appear to have overflown at least U.S. airspace and the airspace of other countries, the official said, without naming the business.”

“The official said the United States has collected high-resolution imagery of the balloon from U-2 aircraft flybys that revealed it was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations, the report continues. The official then said, “China had conducted similar surveillance flights over more than 40 countries on five continents.”

China has sarcastically quipped that the US has launched a “war on weather balloons” – continuing to reject that it was for spying…

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has also weighed in, telling CBS news that the Pentagon’s driving concern was protecting US nuclear capabilities. Confirming that Chinese balloons have flown over places like Texas and Florida in prior years, he said, “Certainly all of our strategic assets, we made sure were buttoned down and movement was limited and communications were limited so that we didn’t expose any capability unnecessarily.”

China has meanwhile blistered at President Joe Biden’s words related to the balloon incident, per Bloomberg:

Beijing lashed out at President Joe Biden for saying Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces “enormous problems,” underscoring the renewed tensions between the two nations since the US downing of a balloon in its airspace.

China’s Foreign Minister hasn’t wavered from its initial position expressed last week that it was nothing but a sophisticated weather “research” balloon which traversed errantly over North America. Beijing has claimed it simply blew off course, and that Washington exploited the incident for political purposes.

END

CHINA/USA

FBI Says Possible ‘Criminal Charges’ Over Chinese Balloon Components

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 01:17 PM

Update(1317ET): The US is looking very determined to seek retribution against China for the ‘spy balloon’ saga, with the FBI now talking criminal charges in an early afternoon announcement.

The FBI confirmed it is now in the process of “decontaminating some balloon remains” by removing sea water and salt. Further the FBI backed an earlier State Dept statement in describing the evidence from the balloon’s components “could be used for intelligence” and “possible criminal charges” could result.

At the same time, the House has unanimously approved a resolution which formally condemns China’s use of a spy balloon over US soil, calling it “a brazen violation of United States sovereignty.” The Hill details of the resolution:

The resolution — which cleared the chamber in a bipartisan 419-0 vote — came to the House floor five days after the U.S. shot down the Chinese spy balloon off the South Carolina coast, intensifying tensions between Washington and Beijing.

“An event like this, Mr. Speaker, must not happen again. And it cannot go unanswered,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and sponsor of the measure, said on the House floor during debate Thursday.

“They only understand one thing and that is force, and that’s projecting power, and we need to project power and force and strength against the Chinese Communist Party,” he added. “They must understand that we do desire peace, but infringing upon our sovereignty leads us down a dangerous path. Our adversaries must believe that any future incursion into American airspace by a spy balloon or any other vehicle will be met with decisive force. And that is why the House should pass this resolution.”

Meanwhile, as NYT wrote yesterday, this has plunged US-China relations to a new low in terms of open communications. A mere days ago Secretary Blinken was supposed to meet with President Xi, which the balloon saga disrupted, given the US side called off the important meeting.

Meanwhile, more from unnamed US officials:

“High resolution imagery from U-2 flybys revealed that the high-altitude balloon was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations,” an official with the State Department, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Epoch Times.

“The high altitude balloon’s equipment was clearly for intelligence surveillance and inconsistent with the equipment onboard weather balloons. It had multiple antennas to include an array likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications. It was equipped with solar panels large enough to produce the requisite power to operate multiple active intelligence collection sensors,” the official added.

* * *

However, The Wall Street Journal does hint that the recovered debris points in the direction of it being a spy balloon:

The Chinese balloon that crossed the U.S. was outfitted with antennas likely capable of collecting communications, a senior State Department official said Thursday, adding that the Biden administration is preparing to take action against China’s surveillance program.

Providing details the U.S. has gathered since tracking and shooting down the balloon, the official said the balloon was also equipped with large solar panels capable of powering an array of intelligence-collection sensors. The manufacturer of the balloon has a direct relationship with the Chinese military, the official added.

China has sarcastically quipped that the US has launched a “war on weather balloons” – continuing to reject that it was for spying…

China has meanwhile blistered at President Joe Biden’s words related to the balloon incident, per Bloomberg:

Beijing lashed out at President Joe Biden for saying Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces “enormous problems,” underscoring the renewed tensions between the two nations since the US downing of a balloon in its airspace.

Developing…

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

FRANCE//RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Idiot! Russia is winning.

(zerohedge)

Macron Says Russia Cannot Win Against Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 10:50 PM

After a surprise UK visit, Ukraine’s President Zelensky went to Paris immediately afterward in a whirlwind European tour to meet with Western leaders. In Paris he held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

Macron asserted during the visit that Russia cannot win the war against Ukraine. “Ukraine can count on France, its European partners and allies to win the war. Russia cannot and must not win,” Macron said before a working dinner among the three leaders at the Elysee Palace.Via Reuters

Just ahead of the meeting, Zelensky in an interview with Le Figaro hailed a change of heart in Macron. “I think he has changed, and changed for real this time,” Zelensky said. “After all, it is he who paved the way for the delivery of tanks. And he has also supported Ukraine’s membership to the EU. I think that was a real signal.”

Macron had angered Kiev when in June he said the West must not “humiliate Russia, so that when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means.”

Macron has also come under fire for being among the only Western leaders to hold frequent phone conversations with President Vladimir Putin, in order to attempt a diplomatic breakthrough towards ending the war. But Ukrainian leaders have suggested such diplomatic efforts are a form of ‘capitulation’.

As for Macron’s slow pivot away from pursuing a diplomatic offramp, the Associated Press now describes:

Macron has said France hasn’t ruled out sending fighter jets but set conditions, including not leading to an escalation of tensions or using the aircraft “to touch Russian soil,” and not resulting in weakening “the capacities of the French army.”

As for Scholz, he was cited in the following on Wednesday:

He added that Paris would “continue the efforts” to deliver arms to Kyiv. Mr Scholz also assured the Ukrainian president of enduring allied support.

“We will continue to do so as long as necessary,” he told reporters, noting Germany and its partners had backed Ukraine “financially, with humanitarian aid and with weapons”. He added that Ukraine belongs to the European family.

The US and UK too have lately signaled no options are off the table at this point. UK leaders took it further on Wednesday in saying Ukraine might expect Typhoon fighter jets in the longer-term.

After Paris, Zelensky is expected in Brussels on Thursday, where he will continue pushing for Ukraine to be fast-tracked into EU membership.

end

FRANCE

New protests as the EU courts ban the use of neonicotinoids for beet harvesting. They hit Paris streets with tractors. Also protests continue on the pension changes

(zerohedge)

Farm Convoy Of Tractors Hit Paris Streets To Protest Pesticide Ban

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Adding to the days of strikes and mass street demonstrations about French President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular plan to raise the retirement age, farmers have flooded the streets of Paris for an entirely different reason.

French farmers drove hundreds of tractors, if not more, into Paris on Wednesday to protest against a ban on pesticide use.

Ag website Agriland said the protest comes after a recent EU court ruling overturned a French rule that allowed sugar beet growers to use neonicotinoids, an insecticide. Farmers were livid by the EU courts because neonicotinoids are critical for sugar beet production. Agriland said at least 800 large farm tractors flooded Paris streets around Les Invalides.

Pictures from the farmers tractor convoy protests in Paris. #Paris pic.twitter.com/JcuoivUCWi— Live Not by Lies (@Dana35300026) February 8, 2023

“The protest has the backing of the country’s leading farm organization, the FNSEA, as well as organizations representing the sugar beet producing sector,” Agriland said.

Well before the EU court ruling, French sugar-beet yields were expected to slide by 5-7% for the next growing season, according to Bloomberg, citing Francois Thaury, an analyst at Paris-based adviser Agritel. Thaury said losses could not top 10%.

د فرانسې یوه ډله بزګرو د حکومت ځینو پالیسو خلاف مظاهرې په ترڅ کې خپل تراکتورونه د پاریس لارو کوڅو ته راوړي دي. یو له دغو پالیسیو څخه د حشره وژونکو او افت وژونکو په کارونې بندیز دی.#voapashto #voasocial #voaafghanistan #paris #farmers #protest #tractor pic.twitter.com/74MoRC70Xz— VOA Pashto (@VOAPashto) February 8, 2023

Meanwhile, in separate mass protests, hundreds of thousands of people nationwide took to the streets against Macron’s plans to raise the retirement age.

Protests come as Macron’s popularity has hit its lowest level. Spring is ahead, and that could mean additional protests as temperatures rise.

end

CREDIT SUISSE/SWITZERLAND

Mammoth outflow of cash and huge 1.39 billion Swiss franc loss.

This bank has some serious issues and mega derivative losses

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Craters After “Staggering” Bank Run And Warning Of Continued Losses

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 10:20 AM

Back in late 2022, when Credit Suisse stock cratered to never before seen levels after a series of dismal earnings reports and regulatory “missteps” sparked a staggering bank run, amounting to some $88 billion forcing the bank to seek emergency liquidity from the Fed via SNB swap lines, and which also led to a historic corporate restructuring which included the de facto closure of the bank’s investment bank coupled with mass layoffs and bonus cuts, many thought that would be as bad as it gets as the (rapidly changing) management had finally thrown out the kitchen sink.

Boy, were they wrong.

On Thursday, Credit Suisse shares tumbled as much as 12%, after the Swiss bank unexpectedly posted a bigger-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter and even more unprecedented client outflows, exacerbating the difficulty for new CEO Ulrich Koerner in returning to profitability by next year.

The second-largest Swiss bank (although it’s probably far smaller now) posted a fifth-straight quarterly loss of 1.39 billion Swiss francs ($1.5 billion), worse than consensus estimates of a 1.14 billion loss as revenue of 3.06 billion Swiss francs also handily missed expectations of 3.35 billion. But while the operating loss was hardly a shock for a bank which has been in a constant state of chaos and turmoil, what stunned analysts was what KBW analysts called a “quite staggering” level of customer capital outflows which hit a record 110.5 billion francs in the quarter, and although the bank said that some money has been coming back, it also concedes it’s now at a worse starting point for 2023.

That was also the big reason why Credit Suisse gave an outlook for the first quarter and the full year that one analyst has labeled as “bleak.” The bank said it will post a “substantial” pretax loss in 2023; the fact that it knows this just one month into the year is very concerning, and as Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said, the scale of outflows and a plunge in investment-bank revenue “frame the difficulties ahead.”

As Bloomberg notes, Koerner’s pledge to stem the decline hinges on a massive client outreach program to woo nervous clients and their cash back to the bank, while carving out the volatile investment bank and slashing costs. On Thursday, Credit Suisse reported progress in the steps needed to execute the plan, including the purchase of dealmaker Michael Klein’s boutique advisory firm, but only tentative signs that customer confidence is returning.

By “2024 I think we should be profitable,” Koerner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. “2023 will be a transformative year, and then we get better and better,” he said; of course he has no way of knowing that, and in the meantime, his guidance means that 2023 will be another year of losses; hardly the stuff that will inspire either employees to stay with the bank (especially since their bonuses are now well below street comps) or investors to buy the stock.

And while the bank’s decline has been duly documented here, here is the punchline: Credit Suisse’s total assets under management stood at just 1.3 trillion Swiss francs at the end of 2022, a decline of almost 20% from a year earlier.

There was some other tangential news reported by the bank, including:

The bank also confirmed a Bloomberg scoop by saying that it will slash its bonus pool by half compared with last year, raising questions about its ability to retain staff. It also unveiled a “transformation award” for a limited number of staff that’s one response to those concerns.
Additionally, the investment banking carve-out of Credit Suisse First Boston – yes, Credit Suisse is so ashamed of its name it hopes to gradually transition into the bank it bought two decades ago – is taking shape, with the absorption of Klein’s boutique firm in a deal valued at $210 million and an intention to publicly list or spin off the unit by the end of 2024. And on costs, Credit Suisse has managed to cut 4% of staff, inching towards the 17% or 9,000 total job cuts they plan by 2025.

But none of that mattered as investors were far more concerned by the ongoing erosion of the core franchise – if one even exists – and the continued barrage of bad news from the bank which just seems unable to “kitchen sink” its problems, and reacted with dismay to the announcements pushing Credit Suisse’s shares down by as much as by 6.1%, the steepest decline in three weeks, pushing the stock just a dime above its all time low.

Going back to KBW and its analyst Thomas Hallett (who has an underperform rating and CHF3.10 PT) he said that key focus areas such as flows, net interest income and trading materially missed expectation, adding that the outlook also screens poorly, and expects to see another wave of downgrades and sees no reason to own the shares (clearly the market agreed).

JPMorgan’s Kian Abouhossein poured more gasoline on the fire, saying that the franchise is deteriorating faster than expected, noting that the lower deposits and assets under management (AuM) are expected to cause reduced net interest income and recurring commissions and fees. And while this is likely to lead to a loss for wealth-management in 1Q23, performance for the remainder of 2023 will depend on ability to execute strategy, net asset flows and market conditions.

The bottom line for the Zurich-based melting ice cube: things are terrible and getting worse.

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE

This is a great explanation of what is occurring day to day while the West makes a mockery of itself as a foolish bully in a losing fight discrediting itself with actions not befitting a world class power.
The farce of the Ukraine while tragic, only hastens a fall in creditability of enablers to this fight. Even the Nord Stream fiasco now in plain view shows a lack of responsible behavior and increases the willingness of parties to avoid the use of USD in trade.
And not to be outdone debts owed by the Democratic lads and gals to China will not go unpaid without consequences. There is only a lost of face with the debtors. So is it a wonder why the administration finds itself in a position that the Chinese do not want to speak to them? A collapse of creditability is obvious even though there exists many attempts to swept such matters to the dustbin.
As Pepe says “ the train has left the station”, the only question is who wants to be left behind? And since it seems that the Global South is 80% of the world the majority seems destined to board the train.

https://thecradle.co/article-view/21245

PEPE ESCOBAR..

The Big Stiff: Russia-Iran dump the dollar and bust US sanctions

News of Russian banks connecting to Iran’s financial messaging system strengthens the resistance against US-imposed sanctions on both countries and accelerates global de-dollarization.

ByPepe Escobar

February 09 2023

Photo credit: The Cradle

The agreement between the Central Banks of Russia and Iran formally signed on 29 January connecting their interbank transfer systems is a game-changer in more ways than one.

Technically, from now on 52 Iranian banks already using SEPAM, Iran’s interbank telecom system, are connecting with 106 banks using SPFS, Russia’s equivalent to the western banking messaging system SWIFT.

Less than a week before the deal, State Duma Chairman Vyachslav Volodin was in Tehran overseeing the last-minute details, part of a meeting of the Russia-Iran Inter-Parliamentary Commission on Cooperation: he was adamant both nations should quickly increase trade in their own currencies.

Ruble-rial trade

Confirming that the share of ruble and rial in mutual settlements already exceeds 60 percent, Volodin ratified the success of “joint use of the Mir and Shetab national payment systems.” Not only does this bypass western sanctions, but it is able to “solve issues related to mutually beneficial cooperation, and increasing trade.”

It is quite possible that the ruble will eventually become the main currency in bilateral trade, according to Iran’s ambassador in Moscow, Kazem Jalali: “Now more than 40 percent of trade between our countries is in rubles.”

Jalali also confirmed, crucially, that Tehran is in favor of the ruble as the main currency in all regional integration mechanisms. He was referring particularly to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), with which Iran is clinching a free trade deal.

The SEPAM-SPFS agreement starts with a pilot program supervised by Iran’s Shahr Bank and Russia’s VTB Bank. Other lenders will step in once the pilot program gets rid of any possible bugs.

The key advantage is that SEPAM and SPFS are immune to the US and western sanctions ruthlessly imposed on Tehran and Moscow. Once the full deal is up and running, all Iranian and Russian banks can be interconnected.

It is no wonder the Global South is paying very close attention. This is likely to become a landmark case in bypassing Belgium-based SWIFT – which is essentially controlled by Washington, and on a minor scale, the EU. The success of SEPAM-SPFS will certainly encourage other bilateral or even multilateral deals between states.

It’s all about the INSTC

The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are also working to establish a stable coin for foreign trade, replacing the US dollar, the ruble, and the rial. This would be a digital currency backed by gold, to be used mostly in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Astrakhan, in the Caspian Sea, already very busy moving plenty of Iranian cargo.

Astrakhan happens to be the key Russian hub of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), a vast network of ship, rail, and road routes which will drastically increase trade from Russia – but also parts of Europe – across Iran to West Asia and South Asia, and vice-versa.

And that reflects the full geoconomic dimension of the SEPAM-SPFS deal. The Russian Central Bank moved early to set up SPFS in 2014, when Washington began threatening Moscow with expulsion from SWIFT. Merging it with the Iranian SEPAM opens up a whole new horizon, especially given Iran’s ratification as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and now a leading candidate to join the extended BRICS+ club.

Already three months before the SEPAM-SPFS agreement, the Russian Trade Representative in Iran, Rustam Zhiganshin, was hinting that the decision “to create an analog of the SWIFT system” was a done deal.

Tehran had been preparing the infrastructure to join Russia’s Mir payment system since last summer. But after Moscow was hit with extremely harsh western sanctions and Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT, Tehran and Moscow decided, strategically, to focus on creating their own non-SWIFT for cross-border payments.

All that relates to the immensely strategic geoeconomic role of the INSTC, which is a much cheaper and faster trade corridor than the old Suez Canal route.

Russia is Iran’s largest foreign investor

Moreover, Russia has become Iran’s largest foreign investor, according to Iranian Deputy Finance Minister Ali Fekri: this includes “$2.7 billion worth of investment to two petroleum projects in Iran’s western province of Ilam in the past 15 months.” That’s about 45 percent of the total foreign investment in Iran over the October 2021 – January 2023 period.

Of course the whole process is in its initial stages – as Russia-Iran bilateral trade amounts to only US$3 billion annually. But a boom is inevitable, due to the accumulated effect of SEPAM-SPFS, INSTC, and EAEU interactions, and especially further moves to develop Iran’s energy capacity, logistics, and transport networks, via the INSTC.

Russian projects in Iran are multi-faceted: energy, railways, auto manufacturing, and agriculture. In parallel, Iran supplies Russia with food and automotive products.

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is fond of reminding anyone that Russia and Iran “play complementary roles in global energy and cargo transit.” The Iran-EAEU free agreement (FTA) is nearly finalized – including zero tariffs for over 7,500 commodities.

In 2022, the EAEU traded more than $800 billion worth of goods. Iran’s full access to the EAEU will be inestimable in terms of providing a market gateway to large swathes of Eurasia – and bypassing US sanctions as a sweet perk. A realistic projection is that Tehran can expect $15 billion annual trade with the five members of the EAEU in five years, as soon as Iran becomes the sixth member.

The legacy of Samarkand

Everything we are tracking now is in many ways a direct consequence of the SCO summit in Samarkand last September, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in person, placed their bet on strengthening the multipolar world as Iran signed a memorandum to join the SCO.

Putin’s private talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Samarkand were all about deep strategy.

The INSTC is absolutely crucial in this overall equation. Both Russia and Iran are investing at least $25 billion to boost its capabilities.

Ships sailing the Don and Volga Rivers have always traded energy and agricultural commodities. Now Iran’s Maritime News Agency has confirmed that Russia will grant their ships the right of passage along the inland waterways on the Don and Volga.

Meanwhile, Iran is already established as the third largest importer of Russian grain. From now on, trade on turbines, polymers, medical supplies, and automotive parts will be on a roll.

Tehran and Moscow have signed a contract to build a large cargo vessel for Iran to be used at the Caspian port of Solyanka. And RZD logistics, a subsidiary of Russian railway RZD, operates container cargo trains regularly from Moscow to Iran. The Russian Journal for Economics predicts that just the freight traffic on INTSC could reach 25 million tons by 2030 – no less than a 20-fold increase compared to 2022.

Inside Iran, new terminals are nearly ready for cargo to be rolled off ships to railroads crisscrossing the country from the Caspian to the Persian Gulf. Sergey Katrin, head of Russia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is confident that once the FTA with the EAEU is on, bilateral trade can soon reach $40 billion a year.

Tehran’s plans are extremely ambitious, inserted in an “Eastern Axis” framework that privileges regional states Russia, China, India, and Central Asia.

Geostrategically and geoeconomically, that implies a seamless interconnection of INSTC, EAEU, SCO, and BRICS+. And all of this is coordinated by the one Quad that really matters: Russia, China, India, and Iran.

Of course there will be problems. The intractable Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict might be able to derail the INSTC: but note that Russia-Iran connections via the Caspian can easily bypass Baku if the need arises.

BRICS+ will cement the dollar’s descent

Apart from Russia and Iran, Russia and China have also been trying to interface their banking messaging systems for years now. The Chinese CBIBPS (Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System) is considered top class. The problem is that Washington has directly threatened to expel Chinese banks from SWIFT if they interconnect with Russian banks.

The success of SEPAM-SPFS may allow Beijing to go for broke – especially now, after the extremely harsh semiconductor war and the appalling balloon farce. In terms of sovereignty, it is clear that China will not accept US restrictions on how to move its own funds.

In parallel, the BRICS in 2023 will delve deeper into developing their mutual financial payments system and their own reserve currency. There are no less than 13 confirmed candidates eager to join BRICS+ – including Asian middle powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.

All eyes will be on whether – and how – the $30 trillion-plus indebted US will threaten to expel BRICS+ from SWIFT.

It’s enlightening to remember that Russia’s debt to GDP ratio stands at only 17 percent. China’s is 77 percent. The current BRICS without Russia are at 78 percent. BRICS+ including Russia may average only 55 percent. Strong productivity ahead will come from a BRICS+ supported by a gold and/or commodities-backed currency and a different payment system that bypasses the US dollar. Strong productivity definitely will not come from the collective west whose economies are entering recessionary times.

Amid so many intertwined developments, and so many challenges, one thing is certain. The SEPAM-SPFS deal between Russia and Iran may be just the first sign of the tectonic plates movement in global banking and payment systems.

Welcome to one, two, one thousand payment messaging systems. And welcome to their unification in a global network. Of course that will take time. But this high-speed financial train has already left the station.

end

//UKRAINE/USA

Gaetz is correct: how much more will the USA send to Ukraine in aid

(zerohedge)

Matt Gaetz Steps Out Of Line On Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 06:50 PM

Rep. Matt Gaetz early this week took an extremely unpopular position within the D.C. swamp, saying just before President Biden’s Tuesday night State of the Union address, “How much more for Ukraine? Is there any limit?”

From the swamp’s point of view, he has certainly “stepped out of line”… but from the point of view of average Americans struggling to pay rising grocery, utility, and housing costs as billions of US tax dollars remain flowing to a corrupt foreign government, Gaetz in his lonely but outspoken stance is saying precisely what needs to be said at this late stage.Getty Images

The Florida Republican went off in a House floor speech Monday: “How much more for Ukraine? Is there any limit?” And posed: “Which billionth dollar really kicks in the door? Which redline we set will we not later cross?”

He had earlier previewed Biden’s State of the Union address in saying: “Tomorrow, President Biden will tell us how much more we must do for Ukraine,” Gaetz said. “Look around your house. How much stuff is made in Ukraine, or even Russia for that matter?”

“So why Ukraine, a country that just rounded up dozens of senior leaders in its government over overt corruption?” Gaetz asked. “Perhaps the answer is as simple as the Hunter Biden life motto: the grifters gotta grift.”

He emphasized the huge risk of D.C. pursuing its policy of arming Ukraine at all costs while inching toward nuclear-armed superpowers clashing, while at the same time most Americans find the Biden administration’s rationale for the unprecedented defense aid for Kiev to be unclear.

“Why should we do more for a country that just rounded up dozens of its senior officials over overt corruption?” he asked the administration and its supporters.

For many months now going back to last spring, Gaetz has warned fellow lawmakers and the public of a “bipartisan push to go to war with Russia” – which could unleash nuclear apocalypse.

Ironically, Joe Biden himself in so many words has warned of the same thing, in an October speech admitting that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is the highest it has been for 60 years, since the Cuban missile crisis.

end

Turkey

Turkey, Syria Quake Death Toll Tops 17,000

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 09:26 AM

Tens of thousands of rescuers are pulling survivors out from the rubble of collapsed building structures, but more than 72 hours after the powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake rocked southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria, hope is quickly fading that more people will be found alive. The latest death toll figures in the region topped 17,000 on Thursday.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said 14,014 people were killed and more than 67,000 injured. In Syria, 3,577 died, and more than 6,300 were injured.

For 100,000-plus rescue personnel, the task is monumental, as there are thousands of collapsed buildings to search. Blocked roads and other logistical challenges have made it challenging for first responders. They’re also racing against time as a person’s survival probability drops due to a lack of food and water.

We noted yesterday that President Erdogan declared a three-month emergency for ten of Turkey’s 81 provinces. He said the measure is because of the widespread destruction in cities, some of which have an equivalent population size to small US cities.

Here’s the latest map detailing the quake-affected areas.

Since the powerful earthquake struck southeastern Turkey before dawn on Monday, there have been 650 aftershocks in the region.

And here’s more footage of the shocking aftermath.

Here’s a Bloomberg update on financial markets:

With Turkish stock trading halted, knee-jerk reactions in Turkish markets have subsided thanks to central bank policies curbing volatility in the lira as the country continues to grapple with disastrous earthquakes.

The lira was little changed, while the yield on both 2- and 10-year government bonds retreated for a second day. The one- month implied volatility on the USD-TRY pair, a measure of expected swings, hovered near the lowest level in three years.

We suspect the lira’s little change has been due to the Turkish central bank suppressing volatility.

What’s not halted is in New York, iShares MSCI Turkey Exchange Traded Fund, the largest ETF concentrated on Turkish stocks, is unchanged Thursday. Since the quake, the ETF has slid about 11%.

President Recep Erdogan said the quake is the country’s largest disaster since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake that killed upwards of 30,00 people.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Bivalent COVID Vaccines Perform Worse Against Variant Now Dominant In United States: Studies

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 01:35 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The new COVID-19 vaccines don’t work as well against XBB.1.5, the virus variant that’s now dominant in the United States, according to multiple studies.

In one of the papers, researchers found the vaccines boosted neutralizing antibodies, believed to be a measure of protection, but that the antibody levels declined to previous levels within three months.

Compared to the antibody responses to BA.5, the responses to XBB.1.5 were reduced 20-fold.

“Following bivalent mRNA boosting, responses to XBB.1.5 increase but remain low and wane within 3 months back to pre-boost levels. These data suggest that once a year boosters with the current mRNA vaccines may not provide adequate protection for an entire year for those at high risk of complications of COVID-19,” Dr. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and a co-author of the preprint study (pdf), told The Epoch Times via email.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines both utilize messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology. The updated versions of the vaccines are bivalent, targeting the Wuhan variant and a sublineage of the BA.4 and BA.5 strain. The new versions were cleared as boosters in the fall of 2022 despite no clinical data being available. They are poised to replace the original vaccines.

Other studies have also found that the bivalents induce a better response than the old, monovalent boosters, but that the response is reduced against XBB.1.5 or its parent, XBB, which comes from BA.2 lineages.

Kim Pegula, co-owner of Buffalo Bills NFL team (& Sabres) & player Damar Hamlin who suffered a cardiac arrest on the field (that could be due to COVID gene injection vaccine) suffers cardiac arrest

Kim’s daughter Jessica revealed this & we pray for Kim who has done so much for Buffalo & sports, we pray for Jessica & Mr. Pegula; we have not been told the reason for the cardiac arrest, we await

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 9

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

Ms. Kim Pegula is in our prayers and we wish er full speedy complete recovery. We await information on the cause.

SOURCE:

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/tennis/pegula-reveals-mother-cardiac-arrest-1.6740365

end

Huh? Exposure to children actually decreased the risk of severe COVID-19 in adults (Solomon et al.)?; But we told you this all along that even closing school hurt elderly, you lunatics didn’t care

Exposure to young children was strongly associated with less severe COVID-19; we already knew children were strongly protected from COVID due to cross-reactive immunity, less nasal ACE 2 receptors

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 9

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

SOURCE:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2204141119

Prior exposure to non-SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses that commonly infect children confers some resistance to severe COVID-19 illness.

Researchers in California (Solomon et al.) identified ‘3,126,427 adults (24% [N = 743,814] with children ≤18, and 8.8% [N = 274,316] with youngest child 0–5 years) to assess whether parents of young children—who have high exposure to non-SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses—may also benefit from potential cross-immunity.

In a large, real-world population, exposure to young children was strongly associated with less severe COVID-19 illness, after balancing known COVID-19 risk factors. This epidemiologic signal suggests endemic coronavirus cross-immunity may play a role in protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Abstract

‘Susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 infection vary widely. Prior exposure to endemic coronaviruses, common in young children, may protect against SARS-CoV-2. We evaluated risk of severe COVID-19 among adults with and without exposure to young children in a large, integrated healthcare system. Adults with children 0–5 years were matched 1:1 to adults with children 6–11 years, 12–18 years, and those without children based upon a COVID-19 propensity score and risk factors for severe COVID-19. COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and need for intensive care unit (ICU) were assessed in 3,126,427 adults, of whom 24% (N = 743,814) had children 18 years or younger, and 8.8% (N = 274,316) had a youngest child 0–5 years.

After 1:1 matching, propensity for COVID-19 infection and risk factors for severe COVID-19 were well balanced between groups. Rates of COVID-19 infection were slightly higher for adults with exposure to older children (incident risk ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, [1.05–1.12] and IRR 1.09 [1.05–1.13] for adults with children 6–11 and 12–18, respectively), compared to those with children 0–5 years, although no difference in rates of COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalization or ICU admission was observed.

However, adults without exposure to children had lower rates of COVID-19 infection (IRR 0.85, [0.83–0.87]) but significantly higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization (IRR 1.49, [1.29–1.73]) and hospitalization requiring ICU admission (IRR 1.76, [1.19–2.58]) compared to those with children aged 0–5. In a large, real-world population, exposure to young children was associated with less severe COVID-19 illness. Endemic coronavirus cross-immunity may play a role in protection against severe COVID-19.’

An important question: why did the CDC and NIH and governments with respective agencies in US not work to prevent nursing home staff from working multiple jobs and entering multiple care facilities daily, brining in infection to vulnerable residents?

end

Fauci now today in a published paper (CELL) says the COVID gene injection vaccine & similar respiratory vaccines were problematic to begin & likely DO NOT WORK & CANNOT work, NOT as is; What? AMNESTY?

I need to take up very heavy drinking to keep up with the absurdity & duplicity of this guy; Fauci is likely the most inept & destructive health official in America’s history, he causes DEATH!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 8

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

TITLE:

Rethinking next-generation vaccines for coronaviruses, influenza viruses, and other respiratory viruses

This CELL paper by Fauci is actually a real headache for him and implicates him in very destructive activities. I think it can help incarcerate him, Francis Collins, Bourla, Bancel, Walensky etc. Why? They know what they did, they know the vaccine failed day one! They knew about the risk of original antigenic sin (immune imprinting, immune fixation), paradoxical priming (auto-immunity), viral immune escape, and antibody-dependent enhancement of infection and/or disease.

There were never any randomized controlled trials to show the shot reduced hospitalization, death etc. and the observational studies have been poorly conducted, short duration, small sample sizes, small event outcome numbers, did not control effectively for natural immunity across comparative groups, nor early treatment, nor baseline differences, nor co-morbidities, and did not control for the ‘healthy vaccinee effect bias’ where vaccinated people are typically healthier to begin with.

To date, we have no definitive evidence that these shots ever reduced hospitalizations, severity, death. None.

Is Fauci now pleading for amnesty like Oster and this eugenics proponent and time fame grifter Kevin Bass? This paper tells us that vaccines on the whole CANNOT work against respiratory infections like common cold, flu, COVID. CANNOT. And those bringing it know and knew this, including Fauci. Fauci and Francis Collins knew that the flu vaccine was pure garbage and does not work, and that it is an annual lie perpetrated on people, especially to elderly.

This CELL paper by Fauci really tells us that the nation and world were taken on a Clown car ride by CDC, FDA, NIH etc. and that they are all frauds and malfeasants for the damage they have done. Fauci and Bourla and Bancel and Francis Collins pushed vaccines that drive and drove immune tolerance and damaged underlying immune systems. They knew. I repeat, the COVID gene injections must be removed from market and all players involved, all, from mRNA to vaccine, must be thoroughly investigated and must be jailed once definitive wrong is shown!

SOURCE:

https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(22)00572-8?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#%20

Let me begin this mind-blowing review of this CELL paper and I will highlight in italics, lines or passages that are important:

Abstract

Viruses that replicate in the human respiratory mucosa without infecting systemically, including influenza A, SARS-CoV-2, endemic coronaviruses, RSV, and many other “common cold” viruses, cause significant mortality and morbidity and are important public health concerns. Because these viruses generally do not elicit complete and durable protective immunity by themselves, they have not to date been effectively controlled by licensed or experimental vaccines. In this review, we examine challenges that have impeded development of effective mucosal respiratory vaccines, emphasizing that all of these viruses replicate extremely rapidly in the surface epithelium and are quickly transmitted to other hosts, within a narrow window of time before adaptive immune responses are fully marshaled. We discuss possible approaches to developing next-generation vaccines against these viruses, in consideration of several variables such as vaccine antigen configuration, dose and adjuventation, route and timing of vaccination, vaccine boosting, adjunctive therapies, and options for public health vaccination polices.

Because these viruses generally do not elicit complete and durable protective immunity by themselves, they have not to date been effectively controlled by licensed or experimental vaccines.

Did you read this statement by Fauci in the abstract and thus immediately, how this opens key questions about the COVID vaccine?

Until the emergence of COVID-19, influenza had for many decades been the deadliest vaccine-preventable viral respiratory disease, one for which only less than suboptimal vaccines are available. Over the years, influenza vaccines have never been able to elicit durable protective immunity against seasonal influenza virus strains, even against non-drifted strains…their effectiveness against clinically apparent infection is decidedly suboptimal, ranging from 14% to 60% over the past 15 influenza seasons.

What about that, does not give you any confidence in the flu shot, does it?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid development and deployment of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has saved innumerable lives and helped to achieve early partial pandemic control. However, as variant SARS-CoV-2 strains have emerged, deficiencies in these vaccines reminiscent of influenza vaccines have become apparent. The vaccines for these two very different viruses have common characteristics: they elicit incomplete and short-lived protection against evolving virus variants that escape population immunity.

Basically the COVID vaccine is junk.

In stark contrast, the non-systemic respiratory viruses such as influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV tend to have significantly shorter incubation periods (Table 1) and rapid courses of viral replication. They replicate predominantly in local mucosal tissue, without causing viremia, and do not significantly encounter the systemic immune system or the full force of adaptive immune responses, which take at least 5–7 days to mature, usually well after the peak of viral replication and onward transmission to others. SARS-CoV-2 “RNAemia” (circulation of viral RNA in the bloodstream, as is seen with most mucosal respiratory virus infections, as distinct from viremia, in which infectious viruses can be cultured from the blood), has been reported, and RT-PCR levels of viral RNA have been linked to severe disease, similar to studies of influenza RNAemia. As a result, the non-systemically replicating respiratory viruses, apparently including SARS-CoV-2, tend to repeatedly re-infect people over their lifetimes without ever eliciting complete and durable protection.

Here Fauci tells you in his own words that the systemic vaccinal antibodies (adaptive response) e.g. circulating IgG (neutralizing) have near zero chance of bumping up against virus residing in the respiratory mucosal layers (in nostrils, upper respiratory tract etc.). In other words, a vaccine-induced humoral response (in your blood stream after leaving injection site) cannot abrogate respiratory infections.

Taking all of these factors into account, it is not surprising that none of the predominantly mucosal respiratory viruses have ever been effectively controlled by vaccines. This observation raises a question of fundamental importance: if natural mucosal respiratory virus infections do not elicit complete and long-term protective immunity against reinfection, how can we expect vaccines, especially systemically administered non-replicating vaccines, to do so?

Again, Fauci, this after helping mandate these fraud injections on millions of people, is saying how could we expect vaccines like the COVID vaccine to work? It is administered systemically (deltoid muscle and vaccinal antibodies enters the systemic circulation) while the virus lands in the mucosa (nose mouth etc.). In short, they could have never worked and Bhakdi said this from day one!

Another important factor to consider is that although RNA viruses share a similar inherent RNA-dependent RNA polymerase error rate, different viruses (and different open reading frames within their genomes) differ in their tolerance for mutation. Mutational constraints can be related to frequent overlapping open reading frames or functional constraints on the acquisition of nonsynonymous mutations as is the case, for example, with measles virus. In contrast, the external influenza A virus hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins are comparatively plastic, and positively selected nonsynonymous mutations result in immunologically significant antigenic drift, by the acquisition of nonsynonymous mutations in antigenic epitopes, as well as by altering the N-linked glycosylation patterns. Rapid antigenic drift affects the control of annual influenza epidemics and complicates the effort to produce broadly protective, “universal” influenza vaccines. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein has shown a similar plasticity, with the emergence of multiple variants with altered antigenicity that has complicated its control through current vaccination strategies.

So Fauci is saying here that there are extensive mutations and thus a mismatch between induced vaccinal antibodies and the circulating sub-variants. Then why do and did they push vaccine that cannot work? For example, the now failed bivalent booster (contains original Wuhan strain and BA.5 sub-variant clade that is not predominant now e.g. XBB 1.5 is). Same with influenza vaccine. Failures. Then why force it and lie to the public?

The terms “disease tolerance” and “immune tolerance” refer to the still-incompletely characterized but distinct category of mammalian immune defense mechanisms that allow hosts to “accept” infection and other antigenic stimuli to optimize survival (reviewed in Medzhitov et al. and Iwasaki et al.)…The immunologic “Faustian bargain” between tolerance versus infection control, which permits transient, moderated infection by respiratory agents of low or intermediate pathogenicity to restrain the destructive forces of an immune elimination response may be problematic for vaccine control of respiratory viruses, not only in the local and systemic sensing of vaccine antigens but also in eliciting optimal immune responses.

Did Fauci know about ‘tolerance’ by the immune system and how destructive it could be? You bet he did!

As of 2022, after more than 60 years of experience with influenza vaccines, very little improvement in vaccine prevention of infection has been noted. As pointed out decades ago, and still true today, the rates of effectiveness of our best approved influenza vaccines would be inadequate for licensure for most other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Inspires confidence, does it not?

Remember this recent publication by Shrestha et al.? Its showed that the more doses you had, the more COVID and the unvaccinated (0 doses) fared best, see graph below.

VACCINE INJURY/

Evidence Indicates Govt Targeted Red States With Deadly Batches Of COVID Vaxxes

An awful assessment of what has occurred for political gain. And people wonder why America is divided ????

http://allnewspipeline.com/Govt_Targeted_Red_States_With_Deadly_Batches_Of_COVID_Vaxxes.php

end

James Cintolo, RN FN CPT on Twitter: “URGENT — Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel Admits Company Produced 100,000 COVID-19 Vaccine Doses In 2019 Before The Pandemic Started https://t.co/KukCd7yXDw” / Twitter

Inbox

And you think this was not orchestrated????

🚨URGENT — Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel Admits Company Produced 100,000 COVID-19 Vaccine Doses In 2019 Before The Pandemic Started pic.twitter.com/KukCd7yXDw
— James Cintolo, RN FN CPT (@healthbyjames) February 7, 2023

VACCINE IMPACT

The Digitalization of Agriculture: Big Tech’s Plan to Take Over the Food Supply

February 8, 2023 9:16 pm

As I recently reported earlier this week, everything and anything related to digital computer technology these days is being labeled as “Artificial Intelligence” (AI), the new marketing buzzword for Big Tech to lure money from investors, so it should not surprise us that Big Tech is now attempting to apply AI to food production. A report published at the end of 2022 by The ETC Group does an excellent job of reporting just how Big Tech is planning on taking over the world’s food supply: Food Barons 2022 – Crisis Profiteering, Digitalization and Shifting Power. They report: “The vista of new digital initiatives in food and ag is dizzying. On the farm, it includes concerted attempts to impose digital agriculture, weaving in drone sprayers, Artificial Intelligence-driven robotic planters and automated animal-feeding operations tricked out with facial recognition for livestock. Big Ag giants such as Bayer, Deere & Company, Corteva, Syngenta and Nutrien are restructuring their entire businesses around Big Data platforms. Bayer’s ‘Field View’ digital platform, for example, extracts 87.5 billion datapoints from 180 million acres (78.2 million hectares) of farmland in 23 countries and funnels it into the cloud servers of Microsoft and Amazon. Deere, the world’s largest farm machinery company, now employs more software engineers than mechanical engineers.” This is the reason why billionaire technocrats, such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, are now among the largest owners of farmland in the United States. This is the future of the technology, and they know it. With Big Tech’s encroachment into agriculture, we have now moved from “Is this food safe to eat?” to “Is this even ‘food’ and is it edible?” If it is packaged and sold in fast food restaurants and grocery stores, most people just assume it is edible and not something that will poison and kill you, because “they wouldn’t do that.” But who are “they”? You mean regulatory agencies like the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that just authorized a population-reduction set of products called “COVID-19 vaccines”? Nah, of course not. “They” would never allow poisonous, inedible food that harms the public be sold commercially, would they?

SLAY NEWS//

The latest reports from Slay News

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Biden Pushes Billionaire Tax in SOTU Address, Quadrupling Stock Buyback Levy President Joe Biden urged billionaires and corporations to “pay their fair share” during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night.READ MORE

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Trump Responds to Biden’s SOTU: ‘End the Destruction of Our Country’President Donald Trump has issued a video response to Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. Trump released his video message shortly after the Democrat president’s speech on Tuesday night. A copy of the video, which Trump called the “real State of the Union,” was published by the Daily Caller. Trump’s speech focuses on the border crisis, inflation, and high …READ MORE

Bill Gates Says He Uses Private Jets to Fight ‘Climate Change’ Because He’s ‘the Solution’Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has claimed that it’s ok for him to use private jets to travel around the world to lecture people about their “carbon footprint” because he’s “the solution” to “climate change.”READ MORE

Biden Heckled & Booed for Pushing False Claims during State of the Union: ‘Liar!’Democrat President Joe Biden was met with immediate backlash as he pushed several false claims during his State of the Union address on Tuesday.READ MORE

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Study: Corporate Media Outlets Refuse to Cover Hunter Biden Scandals as Hearing Looms Several corporate media outlets are refusing to cover any scandals regarding Democrat President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, a new study has found.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Two Bears… And Nowhere Near Enough Cocaine

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 09:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Cocaine Bear

I get quite a lot of direct and indirect feedback to the Global Daily. Some of it is positive, some of it is negative – and a lot of that is downright unpleasant, and some of it is ‘eclectic’ – like a detailed analysis of the collapse of the economy of Atlantis. However, yesterday was the first time I was told I was “on cocaine” for arguing higher rates can, in some circumstances, lead to higher inflation. (For more on which, see here.)

However, the critic didn’t grasp the point I was making. As our own Fed Funds forecast rises to 5.50%, with upside risks of 6.0%, I was continuing the argument seen here since early 2022: that we risk even higher rates if the structure of the economy remains one of corporate concentration and “fictitious” bubbles in stocks, bonds, crypto, and/or commodities over “productive” capital investment in new supply chains. The ‘narc’ thought I was saying rates must tumble to protect those bubbles –as former BOE policy setter Blanchflower was arguing this week– when I wasn’t.

Interestingly, Bloomberg reports money is now piling into bets US rates will go as high as 6% as well as into opposite bets that rates collapse. In other words, two bears, but no Goldilocks. Indeed, her absence in 2023 was my own negative feedback to vanilla market year-ahead calls last month.

Even so, I guess I am a –totally teetotal– ‘Cocaine Bear’ of sorts. (Which is a B-movie by the way: “After ingesting a duffel bag full of cocaine, an American black bear goes on a killing rampage in a small Georgia town where a group of locals and tourists must join forces to survive the attack.”)

Once upon a time, and for a long time, I held the Blanchflower view. Using Kalecki and Marx’s critique of “fictitious” over “productive” investment, which parallels the Austrians’ and lives on in Minsky and post-Keynesians, I held that every lower rates peak had to be followed by a deeper rates trough, because labor was squeezed so hard by capital there was no end demand.

Coincidentally, at the launch of his book on ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism’, the economics editor of the Financial Times, Martin Wolf, stated: “You can’t be an intelligent social scientist unless you’re a Marxist.” I’d argue you can’t be one if you don’t understand what Marx argued, and where he was wrong.

However, in recent years geopolitics has been my dialectic, and the interface between it and Marxism-Leninism in particular. Regular readers will know I came to the view in 2016 that as FX Wars began and Cold war and Great Power struggles re-emerged, the economic and market game would change. Inflationary actions and policies unacceptable under a global neoliberal consensus would become necessary under a raw, geopolitical paradigm. That made me a ‘post-post-Keynesian’ saying global neo-mercantilism lay ahead.

Ironically, most of the most unpleasant feedback I get to the Daily again confuses my core argument. If you think the US needs to go back on gold, that implies it needs to sharply reduce its trade deficit, because that’s the only way to be stable on gold. That means either a collapse in living standards or onshoring and reshoring to trusted partners; and that means a strong military to ensure security and the flow of goods to and from trusted partners. Which is called neo-mercantilism (and means no asset bubbles and higher rates too, even if the Fed doesn’t set them). I just think we will try it without gold given the legacy hegemony advantages of the dollar, including that you can spend what you want on the military when needed.

Indeed, as the Pentagon says, “production is deterrence,” @LeeHudson_ at Politico notes the US DoD just entered into a Security of Supply Arrangement with Denmark’s Ministry of Defence, where both agree to provide reciprocal priority support for goods and services: Denmark joins Australia, Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the UK on that list.

President Biden’s State of the Union yesterday also talked about industrial policy in MAGA-nificent fashion, stressing, “I will make no apologies that we are investing to make America strong. Investing in American innovation, in industries that will define the future, that China intends to be dominating.” Xi Jinping spoke the same day to claim China’s “miraculous” development shows “modernisation does not equal Westernisation”, and call for more Marxism, “self-reliance”, and “social fairness.” That is called global neo-mercantilism.

As a result, a recent Reuters Events whitepaper (‘A generational shift in sourcing strategy: A global and European deep dive into near-sourcing, nearshoring and reshoring in the post-pandemic world’) showing:

67% of global retailers and manufacturers say that global supply chain disruptions have changed where they source materials and components from;
58% of those who have shifted sourcing say that further relocation remains a high priority, or the top priority, for their business;
76% do not expect supply chains to normalise in the 12 months following Q3 2022; and
37% are planning to change manufacturing locations.

This is called structural change, and that things are not as cheap as they used to be. If goods prices are going to trend higher, then services inflation needs to trend lower. That needs a central-bank interest rate response given where unemployment remains. Likewise, central banks need to encourage supply chains to move to them – and that means not allowing asset bubbles to divert capital from the productive to the fictitious.

Meanwhile, US journalist Seymour Hirsch reports, via an anonymous source, that it was the US and Norway, not Russia, which blew up Nord Stream – met by official White House denials. As I wrote the last time this rumor was floated, it doesn’t matter if it’s true or not in terms of how one should see markets. If Russia blew up the pipeline, we are in a dangerous geopolitical world where asset bubbles are no longer what The Establishment is most worried about. If Norway and the US blew it up then the same is true – on cocaine.

Indeed, let me refer back once again to the report we published on Friday on balance of payments -and power- crises, which showed if you assume a harsh geopolitical world of supply constraints, export constraints, no easy labour market rebalancing, and twin deficit constraints on fiscal and monetary policy for some economies, then their growth prospects are structurally undermined; rates are structurally higher; exchange rates are structurally lower.

Now imagine you are Europe, dreaming about an energy transition towards “strategic autonomy”, using minerals and technology you don’t have or control supply chains for, with growing twin deficits, and while reliant on US gas, US guns, and US Eurodollars… and you think maybe it was the US and Norway who blew up NordStream, while on the other side you have Moscow.

Two bears – and nowhere near enough cocaine?

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0771 UP .0055

USA/ YEN 130.73 DOWN 0.856/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2167 UP 0.0096

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 38.28 PTS OR 1.18%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 340.84 PTS OR 1.60%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.58% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 340.84 PTS OR 1.60%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.28 PTS OR 1.18%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .58%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 22.11 PTS OR 0.08%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1882.25

silver:$22.41

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 102.72 DOWN 55 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.147% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.490% UP 0 AND 2/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.322%// DOWN 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.126 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.303 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0747 UP 0.0031 or 31 basis points//

USA/Japan: 131.09 DOWN 297 OR YEN UP 30 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2145 UP .0074 OR 174BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0008 OR 8 BASIS pts to 1.3437

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.7807)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7889

TURKISH LIRA: 18.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.49…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.605% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.649 DOWN 6 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.92 DOWN 35 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 28.81 PTS OR 0.37%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 111.02 POINTS OR 0.72

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 66.86PTS OR 0.94%

Spain IBEX UP 23.20 POINTS OR 0.25%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 307.88 PTS OR 1.13%

WTI Oil price 77.36 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.16 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 73.00/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 70/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.303

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.329 UP 2 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0732 UP 0.0017 OR 17 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2117 UP .0047 or 47 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.317% UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.62 UP .228////YEN DOWN 23 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3459 UP .0014 (CDN dollar, DOWN 14 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 77,59

Brent OIL: 84,17

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 3.677%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 3.747%

USA dollar index:103.14 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.83

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 73.00 DOWN 0 AND 70/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 249.13 PTS OR 0.73%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 114.21 PTS OR 0.91%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.69 UP 1.06 PTS (5.40)%

GLD: $173.03 DOWN 1.38 OR 0.79%

SLV/ $20.18 DOWN 0.30 OR 1.46%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion And Bitcoin All Blasted Amid Broadbased Selling

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 04:10 PM

Unlike yesterday, when a triple whammy of Fed speakers (Williams, Kashkari, and Waller) all sung from the same hawkish hymn-sheet, saying there is ‘more work to do’, ‘higher for longer’, ‘no rate cuts this year’ and pushed terminal rate hike expectations for July to a new cycle high of 5.18%, today the hawkish Fed rhetoric took a break, and terminal odds dipped modestly…

… even as the implied number of rate cuts by year end has continued to shrink from ~2 pre-payrolls to just over one.

And yet, a day which started off on the front foot, with futures rising as high as 4,170 overnight on the back of solid European earnings and a burst of liquidity in China, drifted lower all session despite a dovish initial claims print, which not only rose from last week…

… but also from a year ago, a welcome inflection point to a labor market that seemingly refuses to bend or break no matter how many rate hikes the Fed throws at it.

But with little macro news, and no Fed speakers, markets turned to other indicators, and after briefly freaking out over a large 25K ES 2/17 4050 put trade (which hit on Wednesday, and which some have erroneously attribute to Carl Icahn), coupled with a very bearish note from one of Goldman’s most popular FICC trading desk bulls, the direction of stocks turned decisively lower sliding more than 1%…

… in the process breaching the recent upward channel to the downside…

… and undoing all post-FOMC gains…

… as all equity sectors turned red.

Meanwhile, in micro, Disney failed to keep its post-earnings surge, turning red late in the day…

… while the mauling in GOOGLE continued for a second day, the stock sliding as much as 5%, bringing the 2-day market cap loss to just shy of $200 billion, or over 12% – the biggest 2-day drop since Sept 2008!

With sentiment stomped, the most-shorted stocks which enjoyed a renaissance for much of the past month, sank for 5th straight day after last week’s epic squeeze…

The broader selloff pushed the VIX well above 20, but once again it was all about the VIXX (the expected vol of VIX) which extended its recent surge (as options traders begin to price in event risk around next week’s CPI print).

Despite the broader risk-off mood in stocks, which traditionally is benign for rates as capital seeks to hide, bonds were also aggressively sold off, with yields higher across the curve today fairly uniformly…

… driven by today’s terrible 30Y auction which pushed yields to session highs after the auction stopped with one of the biggest tails in recent years.

Finally, the pain was shared by crypto investors as well, and while bitcoin had managed to decouple with risk assets in recent days, today the convergence hit with a bang as Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptos tumbled after exchange Kraken settled with the SEC agreeing to end staking services, putting in question the viability of such exchanges as Coinbase. The selloff hammered bitcoin which dropped below $22K and breached support that held since late January.

Oh, and just in case anyone thinks that gold may have been spared from today’s mauling, one look at the chart below reveals that nothing was safe in today’s broad-based puke fest.

What was behind today’s sharp reversal across all asset classes? There was no clear catalyst although as JPM said, investors are prepping for Tuesday’s CPI given a dearth of catalytic information this week, and where yesterday’s sharply higher Manheim Used Car print (the bigget st increase since late 2021) appears to have shifted expectations toward a hotter print. Why has this print shifted expectations? JPM consumer-sector Cash Trader Brian Heavey says, “Used car vehicle index ticks higher MoM for first time since May. This has started to pop up in conversations (and while there is some seasonality here – i.e., dealerships front loading inventory for the year), this had been a big source of disinflation so something to watch”.

As JPM concludes, “we may be in store for a choppy next few trading sessions as, in 2022, bond vol tended to its largest increases around both the CPI and Fed Days. Given that yesterday’s Fedspeak attempted to put 50bps hikes back on the table, if necessary, a hotter than expected print could produce stronger than expected outcomes.”And don’t look now, but 2y Breakevens are starting to rise…

EARLY MORNING TRADING

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//

END

ii) USA DATA

Total US Jobless Claims Near One-Year High

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 08:38 AM

Initial and Continuing jobless claims rose last week (from 183k to 196k and from 1.65mm to 1.688mm respectively), although the trend of initial claims continues to trend down despite the layoffs…

Both adjusted and unadjusted initial claims data rose last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Initial claims actually shifted higher on a YoY basis last week…

Source: Bloomberg

California was by far the state with the largest increase in claims while Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas saw initial claims decline…

Regular State rolls increased by the most…

Leaving total jobless claims near one-year highs…

But, for some context, here is the labor market macro data surprise index relative to industrial macro data surprise index…

Source: Bloomberg

One of these things is not like the other!?

END

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

TEXAS

Texas Sues Biden Admin Over ‘Pharmacy Mandate’ To Dispense Abortion Drugs

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 09:30 PM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Texas filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration on Tuesday to block federal health guidance that allegedly forces pharmacies to dispense abortion-inducing drugs.Pro-life activists demonstrate in front of the U.S. Supreme Court after the Court announced a ruling in the Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization case in Washington on June 24, 2022. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

The Biden administration in July 2022 released guidance requiring pharmacies to supply women with abortion-inducing drugs or risk losing Medicaid and Medicare funds, even if certain state laws prohibit the procedure.

Texas argues in its lawsuit, which refers to the guidance collectively as the “pharmacy mandate,” that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has attempted to impose, via executive fiat, a federal right to abortion. The lawsuit said this was a part of the Biden administration’s “war against” the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision. That ruling reversed a 1973 ruling that made abortion legal nationwide.

“But whether the Biden Administration likes it or not, the question of abortion is up to the people’s elected representatives—not unelected bureaucrats,” the lawsuit states (pdf). “The Biden Administration’s attempt to inject itself into that question is both procedurally and substantively illegal.”

The HHS guidance, which involved roughly 60,000 U.S. retail pharmacies, claims that federal anti-discrimination law requires pharmacies to provide these drugs. The guidance was released on July 13, 2022, a few days after President Joe Biden, a Democrat, signed an executive order that made it easier to obtain abortion services following the Dobbs decision.Mifepristone, one of the two drugs used in a chemical abortion, can be dispensed by brick-and-mortar pharmacies via online prescriptions—if permitted under state law. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Patently False’: Paxton Pushes Back

However, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, argues that Title IX’s anti-discrimination protections don’t require companies to provide abortions, and instead protect any person or entity from being forced to aid in the provision of abortions.

“Not A Sustainable Model”: AZ Hospital ‘On Brink Of Collapse’ After Spending $20 Million On Migrants

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 08:10 PM

A hospital in Yuma, Arizona is reportedly on the brink of collapse after providing $20 million in care for what has become a constant stream of illegal migrants.

Dr. Robert Transchel, president and CEO of Yuma, Arizona’s Regional Medical Center, told Fox News that the problem is not new.

“It’s been a long journey,” he said. “We’ve been at this for well over a year now. We tracked our uncompensated care for a period of over six months, and we calculated that we’ve provided over $20 million in uncompensated care to the migrants crossing the border.“

According to Transchel, despite approaching state officials and Department of Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas for aid, neither the city, state, or the federal government have stepped up to help to pay for the migrant care.

“We just don’t have a payer source. Everybody is sympathetic, and everybody lends a listening ear, but nobody has a solution,” he told “Fox & Friends Weekend.”

“We’ve provided $20 million in care to the migrants that are crossing the border and we just don’t have a payer source for those individuals. It’s not a sustainable model to have these continued rising expenses without a revenue source to offset that.”

Transchel said the hospital will keep functioning, adding that most hospitals operate on a “very thin margin.”

“We’re fine today, and we’ll be fine tomorrow. The problem is, if this continues, it’s gonna build up, and it’s gonna continue to be a problem.”

He added that the $20 million care cost fails to encompass the full scope of losses the facility has suffered since migrant patients became a problem, pointing to flight costs for some, as well as expenses associated with increased staffing. –Fox News

“The infrastructure that we’ve had to add is uncompensated as well,” he added.

END

This is awful: a second councilman shot dead in one week

(zerohedge)

Second NJ Councilman Shot Dead One Week After Dwumfour Slaying

THURSDAY, FEB 09, 2023 – 01:55 PM

A Republican New Jersey municipal council member was found shot dead in his car on Wednesday, exactly one week after Councilwoman Eunice Dwumfour – also a Republican, was gunned down while driving her car.

51-year-old Russell Heller was found just after 7 a.m. in the parking lot of his workplace, PSE&G, located in Somerset. Former employee Gary Curtis, 58, was identified as a suspect – and was found dead in his own car from a suspected self-inflicted gunshot wound around 3.5 hours after the murder, the NY Post reports.

“The investigation remains ongoing to determine motive,” said prosecutors, adding that “Heller was the intended target.”

Gov. Phil Murphy sent “thoughts and prayers” to Heller’s “family and friends in the wake of this tragic act of gun violence.”

US Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), whose district includes the area, said he was “shocked and saddened by the tragic murder” of his fellow Republican.

“Russell was an outstanding public servant who proudly represented the river town he loved,” Kean tweeted. -NY Post

“Russell was a dedicated and valuable member of the Milford and Hunterdon County community whose leadership and commitment will be sorely missed,” said Zachary Rich, the director of the county board of commissioners. “More importantly, however, Russell was a loving and caring father to his daughter and a dedicated and loyal friend to all of those who had the pleasure of knowing him.”

The murder appears to be an “isolated incident” according to authorities, who have not linked it to the murder of Eunice Dwumfour.

Dwumfour, 30, was found dead in her white Nissan SUV last Wednesday, having suffered multiple gunshot wounds. A witness told the NY Post that her car was hit with around 12 shots, and crashed near the Camelot at La Mer apartment complex in Sayreville.

“She was slumped over the wheel with a black hoodie with brown fur covering her head, her hands were down by her side. There was one bullet hole in the passenger door and a bunch of bullet holes in the driver door. Some other neighbors said they saw someone running away with a mask on,” said the witness.

end

3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

for your interest..

Cargo Thefts Spike 15% Across US, Canada In 2022

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 08:50 PM

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

The end of 2022 saw a surge in cargo thefts that pushed the yearly total to above an estimated $223 million worth of goods stolen across Canada and the U.S., according to recent data from CargoNet.CargoNet’s 2022 data showed California led the way with 417 cargo thefts in 2022, followed by Texas with 223 and Florida with 153

The Verisk Analytics-owned data firm, which tracks voluntarily reported cargo thefts, recorded 1,778 “supply chain risk incidents” in Canada and the U.S. in 2022, a 15% jump compared to 2021.

“The No. 1 commodity [for cargo theft] was household goods for all of 2022, electronics was No. 2, and then food and beverage commodities were No. 3,” Scott Cornell, transportation lead and crime and theft specialist at Travelers, told FreightWaves.

California led the way with 417 reported cargo thefts in 2022, a 41% year-over-year increase, followed by Texas with 223 and Florida with 153.

CargoNet’s 2022 data showed the average value of cargo stolen in a theft was $214,104, a 20% increase compared to 2021.

Cargo theft hot spots are typically areas around major ports, as well as intermodal facilities, distribution centers and truck stops.

“When we look at the hot spots in general for cargo theft, they tend to be port areas,” Cornell said. “If you look at the heat map that CargoNet puts out, you’ll see California is always No. 1. California definitely has several ports in that state, then Florida, another port state, Texas, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, that’s really considered an inland port because of the rail yards, same thing for Memphis, almost sort of an inland port because of the rail yards.”

Danny Ramon, an intelligence and response manager at Overhaul, a real-time visibility and risk management platform based in Austin, Texas, said wherever there is a density of cargo and large populations there are going to be thieves “targeting low-hanging fruit.”

“Whenever you’ve got a lot of cargo, somebody’s going to be the low-hanging fruit. Somebody didn’t actually get to park inside the parking lot that’s gated, somebody had to park outside of the coverage of the streetlights or the CCTV cameras, somebody at the truck stop was going to leave their load alone for more than more than 10 or 20 minutes, giving thieves the opportunity to steal the entire tractor-trailer,” Ramon said.

Organized crime rings can react quickly to market trends

Cornell said nine out of 10 times a cargo theft incident occurs, it’s usually perpetrated by an organized crime group.

“Most of the time, cargo theft is committed by organized rings and those rings are usually fulfilling orders,” Cornell said. “They have orders that they’re filling, trying to meet the needs of their customers that they have within their own supply chain that have asked them for electronics or energy drinks, cleaning supplies, things like that.”

According to CargoNet, cargo theft in Georgia increased 34% year over year, partly due to organized crime groups that took advantage of increased traffic at the Port of Savannah.

Cornell said one of the most common methods of cargo theft is surveilling a truck or shipments outside of busy distribution centers.

“[Cargo thieves] know the distribution centers for what they distribute,” Cornell said. “So if they know that this distribution center distributes energy drinks — they know that from gathering intel — they know if they follow a truck out of that warehouse, there’s a pretty good chance they’re going to get energy drinks.”

Ramon said organized cargo theft rings and the black market can often react more quickly to market demand than normal supply chains.

“These criminals can react, turn on a dime, react to market trends very quickly,” Ramon said. “Anything that has retail purchasing restrictions is going to be big. Anything that’s bearing a bigger brunt of inflation or product shortages, for whatever reason, whether that’s because of flooding in California or avian flu, anything causing things to go up and desirability to go up in price because there’s a shortage is definitely going to be targeted.”

Strategic thefts, fictitious pickups, double brokering on the rise

Both Cornell and Ramon said they have seen an increase in more sophisticated methods of cargo theft, such as strategic thefts, which include identity theft, fictitious pickups and double brokering scams.

“Strategic theft by definition is when cargo thieves basically trick you into giving them the cargo,” Cornell said. “Within strategic theft, the most common one tends to be identity theft, and that’s where they basically steal the identity of a legitimate trucking company, they pose as that company on load boards or the internet or by calling a freight broker.”

Thieves posing as a legitimate trucking company, called ABC Trucking, will negotiate a price for a load with brokers, pick up the load and then disappear, Cornell said.

“If you’re a freight broker, you call ABC Trucking a couple days after the loads are picked up. You say, ‘Hey, you guys picked up these loads the other day and they were never delivered,’” Cornell said. “Then ABC Trucking says, ‘Yeah, we never picked those up. We don’t know who you dealt with but it wasn’t us.’”

Ramon said identity theft and fictitious pickups used to be more common at West Coast ports but moved to East Coast facilities in 2022.

“Overhaul just put out a bulletin to our customers and clients talking about how primarily this has been a Southern California modus operandi, this fraudulent effort or strategic cargo theft,” Ramon said. “We’re starting to see some of the same actors actually branch out to the East Coast, as well as Indiana and Illinois.”

USA COVID//

SWAMP STORIES

73-Year-Old Arizona Rancher Held On $1 Million Bond For Killing Illegal Alien On Property

WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 10:30 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A 73-year-old Arizona rancher has been arrested and charged with first-degree murder for the killing of an illegal alien who has been tentatively identified as a Mexican citizen.Border Patrol agents patrol the border in Nogales, Ariz., on July 29, 2019. The city of Nogales, Mexico, abuts the border fence to the right. (CBP)

Full details about the shooting have not been made available, and it is unknown whether the rancher, George Alan Kelly, and the deceased, Gabriel Cuen-Butimea, 48, knew each other. The killing occurred on Jan. 30, and Kelly’s arrest was preceded by authorities finding the dead body of Cuen-Butimea on Kelly’s cattle ranch. Cuen-Butimea’s was identified from a Mexican voter registration card he carried.

Kelly is being held at the Santa Cruz County Jail in Nogales, Arizona, and his bail was set at $1 million by Justice Emilio Velasquez. Kelly has requested the judge to reduce his bail in order to go back home and take care of his wife.

“She’s there by herself… nobody to take care of her, the livestock or the ranch,” he said, according to Nogales International. “And I’m not going anywhere. I can’t come up with a million dollars,” he said.

Meanwhile, Cuen-Butimea has entered the United States multiple times illegally and was deported repeatedly, according to reports.

The Shooting

The incident happened in the Kino Springs area just outside Nogales, according to Sheriff’s Chief Deputy Gerardo Castillo. A call came in at about 2:40 p.m. Monday, regarding a shooting in the Sagebrush Road area, per Nogales International. There were reports of a commotion at the scene but the deputies found nothing on arrival.

However, around 6:00 p.m., the sheriff’s office received another call about shots fired at the property. This time, deputies found the deceased body of Cuen-Butimea with a visible gunshot wound 100–150 yards from Kelly’s house.

Kelly lived 1.5 miles north of the border with Mexico, roughly three-quarters of a mile southeast of Kino Springs Road. Kelly was arrested because the body was found on his property.

According to the outlet, Kelly requested a reduction in the bond amount but Judge Velasquez said that it would be determined by the County Attorney’s Office. Kelly was cordial with the officers when he was brought to court.

At present, Kelly, who appears to be a self-published fiction writer based on the Nogales International news report, is being held at the Santa Cruz County Jail and is set to appear in court on Wednesday.

Stand Your Ground

A person can fight, and even kill, in order to protect himself or others based on Arizona law.

The state’s Justification statute, which is similar to Florida’s “stand your ground” law, says “a person is justified in threatening or using physical force against another when and to the extent a reasonable person would believe that physical force is immediately necessary to protect himself against the other’s use or attempted use of unlawful physical force.”

The burden lies on prosecutors to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant was not justified in using deadly force during self-defense.

As of December 2022, the number of illegal immigrant encounters along the southern border was at 251,487, a new monthly record, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The earlier record was in May at 241,136 encounters.

THE KING REPORT

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

I am repeating this important interview in case you missed it yesterday

Greg Hunter interviewing Dr Pierre Kory

(https://usawatchdog.com/people-are-dying-from-the-cv19-vax-its-preventable-dr-pierre-kory/)

I will see you tomorrow

Harvey

Robert Hryniak	7:45 AM (24 minutes ago)
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Robert Hryniak	9:28 PM (1 hour ago)
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Robert Hryniak	9:32 PM (1 hour ago)
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