FEB 28//OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED AT LONDON/OTIC: GOLD CLOSED UP $12.10 TO $1829.50//SILVER CLOSED UP 26 CENTS TO $20.95//PLATINUM CONTINUES TO GAIN ON PALLADIUM: PLATINUM UP $14.00 TO $956.95 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $11.75 TO $1419.70//ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST A MUST SEE (KINESIS 111 LIVE FROM THE VAULT//)//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER/ VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//BRAZIL TO FORCE VACCINATIONS ON ITS CITIZENS//RAND PAUL FURIOUS: WANTS THE DECLASSICATION OF ALL COVID LEAK DOCUMENTS//IMPORTANT STUDY BY HEYES ON COVID 19 ATTACK ON THE IMMUNE SYSTEM:A MUST READ//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//MEDVEDEV ISSUES WARNING TO THE WEST//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 401 132 C SG AMERICAS 105 323 C HSBC 221 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 151 365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 53 523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 4 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 207 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 10 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12 661 C JP MORGAN 719 424 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 29 737 C ADVANTAGE 29 35 800 C MAREX SPEC 22 880 C CITIGROUP 256 880 H CITIGROUP 11 905 C ADM 76
TOTAL: 1,383 1,383 MONTH TO DATE: 1,383
JPMORGAN STOPPED 424/1383
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 1383 NOTICES FOR 138,300 OZ or 4.3017 TONNES
total notices so far: 1383 contracts for 138,300 oz (4.3017 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 1233 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 6,165,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1233 for 6,165000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $12.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//// A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 26 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.188. MILLION OZ (
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 613 CONTRACTS TO 124,567 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE NOW COMING CLOSE TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 124,080 OI CONTRACTS RECORDED FEB 22/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.15). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 480 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1093 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.9953 MILLION OZ//// V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL ADDED 3 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 days, total 20,021 contracts: OR 100.105 MILLION OZ . (1001 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 100.105 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 613 WITH OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1093 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 4.9953 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 480 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 1233 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 6,165,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2001 CONTRACTS TO 423,217 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 68 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2001 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $6.95 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.95 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 974 OI CONTRACTS (3.029 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1027 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 423,217
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 974 CONTRACTS WITH 2001CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1027 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 974 CONTRACTS OR 3.029 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1027 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2001) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 974 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
48,744 CONTRACTS OR 4,874,400 OZ OR 151.61 TONNES 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2437 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 151.61 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 151.61/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 613 CONTRACTS OI TO 124,567 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 124,080 CONTRACTS FEB 22/2023.
EFP ISSUANCE 1027 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1093 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1093 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 613 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1093 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR GAIN OF 480 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.400 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.15 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.66% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 157.57 PTS OR 0.79% /The Nikkei closed UP 21.60% PTS OR .08% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9380 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9562// /Oil UP TO 77.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.29 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2001 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 423,217 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.95.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1027 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 1027 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1027 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 974 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1027LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 2001CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED (DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.95). WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (4.9953)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 4.9953
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $6.95) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 974 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 3.029 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.95.
WE HAD -68 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 974 CONTRACTS OR 97400 OZ OR 3.029 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1383 notices 138300 4.2017 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of Brinks: 1832.610 oz 7 kilobars
total withdrawals: 1832.610 oz
in tonnes: 0.056 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1606 contracts having LOST 340 contracts. Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing for this non active delivery month of March is as follows:
1606 notices x 100 oz per notice
equals 160,600 oz or 4.9953 tonnes
April lost 4208 contracts down to 324,475
We had 1383 notice(s) filed today for 138,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 719 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1383 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped 424/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 3 and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1,383 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 1606 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1383 x 100 oz per contract equals 160600 OZ OR 4.9953 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (1,383 x 100 oz+ 1606 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1383)x 100 oz} which equals 1,535,000 oz standing OR 49953 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.. MY PREDICTION WAS 5.0 TONNES SO I WAS CLOSE.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1233 x 5,000 oz = 6,165,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(3116) and the number of notices served upon today 1233 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month:1233 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR 3116 – number of notices served upon today (1233) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 15.580 million oz +
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 917.61 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 481.188 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Javier Blas: The myth of the inevitable rise of the petroyuan
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-02-27 11:21Section: Daily Dispatches
Chris Powell comments:
The prediction drawn by this commentary may be accurate but the commentary is ridiculous for scorning China for commodity market manipulation as if the U.S. government hasn’t been doing the same thing for much longer. That’s a subject the writer’s news organization dares not touch and a failure that makes this commentary largely propaganda.
* * *
By Javier Blas Bloomberg News via The Washington Post Monday, February 27, 2023
In diplomacy, what’s left unsaid often matters more than what’s said. After Chinese President Xi Jinping met the king of Saudi Arabia in December, both nations issued lengthy readouts extolling the burgeoning Saudi-Sino relationship in “all fields.” But in more than 5,000 words, the statements were silent on the much-hyped idea of using the yuan to price oil.
The communiques said nothing at all about it. Zero. zilch. Nada.
The inevitability of a petroyuan has become a popular take in the financial blogosphere: China flexing its muscles as an emerging power, elbowing one of the most visible and enduring signs of the 75-year U.S. hegemony in the Middle East.
If you believe in conspiracy theories, the introduction of a petroyuan, and the ensuing collapse of the petrodollar, would be a first domino, potentially weakening the whole U.S. financial system. Very serious stuff. A redrawing of the global economic map. The backdrop to crisis and wars.
Astonishing as it is, the narrative is an illusion.
Ask quietly in government circles in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, or Doha about the petroyuan, and the response — even in the weeks following Xi’s visit to Riyadh — is unanimous: The petrodollar is here to stay.
On a recent trip to the region I didn’t hear a single official talking seriously about making preparations to introduce a new currency to the mix.
The answers sound a lot like this: What’s in it for us? The greenback is freely convertible, the yuan isn’t; the dollar is liquid, the yuan isn’t. That’s the polite version; the more candid answers sounded even more emphatic about the absurdity of turning to a managed currency produced by an opaque and unpredictable financial machine. …
The appetite among OPEC producers to price oil in yuan using a Chinese exchange is almost nil. Middle Eastern national oil companies closely watch how Beijing tries to manipulate local commodity prices such as iron ore, cotton, coal, or grains every time prices rise above its pain threshold. Having spent 60 years building a formidable cartel, why would Middle East nations cede pricing power to China? …
Russians are being probed for smuggling gold in Sudan. The West will now compete for influence
(Bloomberg/GATA)
Russians probed over gold in Sudan as West competes for influence
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-02-27 19:23Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mohammed Alamin and Simon Marks Bloomberg News Monday, February 27, 2023
Dozens of Russians working for a mining company in Sudan are being probed by authorities on suspicion of gold-smuggling, in a potential setback for Moscow’s ambitions in the resource-rich North African state.
Sudanese prosecutors arrested one and summoned many more Russian employees for questioning this year, including just before and after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit in February, according to people familiar with the events.
While his tour sought to shore up ties with friendly countries on the continent, Sudan’s moves were partly meant to appease Western powers concerned by Russia’s growing influence, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to comment. …
This is a must view. May special attention to the last 5 minutes. Here Andrew describes why the COT report has not been released by the CME. The report is prepared by Dublin based ION group. These guys were whacked by known Russian operatives no doubt with close ties to Putin for ransom ware. The COT report is nothing but position levels by the major players i.e. no big deal. However the ION group’s main function is a clearing house for London’s OTC/derivative trades. The total amount of derivative trades is in excess of 2 quadrillion dollars. You can imagine the mess if banks cannot clear their trades. Many expire at month’s end, so this will be something to watch. This may be payback for the uSA blowing up the Russian Nordstream one and two.
(Andrew Maguire/Kinesis)
Episode 111
4 days ago
Russia’s cyberattack exposes U.S. 2 quadrillion dollar dilemma
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire reveals the widely unreported details of Russia’s ransomware attack which has disrupted the CFTC platform, causing a month-long delay in their weekly COT Report submission.
The London wholesaler points out the magnitude of risk this cyberattack poses to the financial sector, explaining the effects of currency weaponisation in the deepening geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM +
Lithium Industry Reeling After China Shutters 10% Of Global Supply
MONDAY, FEB 27, 2023 – 06:00 PM
That’s a nice little EV industry you got over there in the US, it’s be a shame if suddenly it found itself without the most important commodity.
That’s one way to interpret what just happened in China; another – a less cynical – is the way Bloomberg described it, namely that China’s lithium industry itself is reeling as its top production hub – responsible for around a 10th of the world’s supply – faces sweeping closures amid a government probe of environmental infringements.
The crackdown in Yichun, Jiangxi province, also known as the country’s “Lithium capital” follows a local lithium frenzy over the past year as miners raced to feed rampant demand for the battery material — and to benefit from record global prices. Now, they’re grappling with a close-up inspection by environment officials sent from Beijing.
According to Yicai newspaper, ore-processing operations in Yichun have been ordered to stop as investigators probe alleged violations at lithium mines. That, Bloomberg notes, threatens somewhere between 8% and 13% of global supply, according to various analyst estimates, although it’s unclear for how long the immediate shutdowns will last.
The sudden probe injects a big dose of uncertainty into a lithium market that has seen prices drop, bringing some relief to EV manufacturers, as more global output emerges. Jiangxi province was expected to be a big source of extra supply, from a lithium-bearing mineral known as lepidolite.
“This supervision may mean that the inspection and control over lepidolite mining in China will be more stringent in the future,” said Susan Zou, analyst at Rystad Energy. Companies with operations in Yichun include major battery manufacturers Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. and Gotion High-Tech Co., whose shares both fell more than 1% on Monday.
Due to the ongoing probe, all lepidolite mining in Yichun aside from those by a state-owned company have been suspended, but refineries are still operational, Daiwa analysts Dennis Ip and Leo Ho said.
Global lithium prices soared to a record high last year as demand from China’s booming electric-vehicle industry outstripped production. And, as so often happens in commodities, where the cure to high prices is more supply, leading to lower prices, this high-profit, high-demand environment has encouraged miners to skirt regulations.
Some companies had already been targeted for infringements, including incidents of pollution, over the past year. This is a much wider crackdown, and involves officials from central government departments including the Ministry of Natural Resources.
Yucai added that Beijing will mainly look at violations at lithium mines and seek to guide the “healthy development” of the industry; they will largely target those mining without permits or with expired licenses.
Curiously, a recent Goldman report found that the Chinese car industry’s demand for lithium has fallen by more than half in recent months, a dramatic reversal that will drive a further slump in the market. Meanwhile, Chinese prices have dropped more than 30% from last year’s peak.
According to calculations form Citic Securities analyst Bai Junfei, a month-long mining halt in Yichun would reduce lithium output by an amount equivalent to around 13% of the world’s total. Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimated the amount at 8%.
“At present, the market speculation is that the probe may stop after the two sessions in China next month,” Rystad’s Zou said, referring to the annual parliamentary meetings due early March.
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.9380
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9562
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.66%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 157.57 PTS OR 0.79%
2. Nikkei closed UP 21.60 PTS OR 0.08%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.63 Euro FALLS TO 1.0608 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.497!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.76/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6455%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.484%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.684…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.401//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1808.85//silver at: 20.57 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 34/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 74.94//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.76/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .4997% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9379–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9948well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.936% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.943 UP 2 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.795 UP 1 BASIS PT
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,89…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.864% UP 5 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
S&P Futures Rise Above 4,000 On Last Day Of Turbulent Month
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 08:17 AM
US stock futures rebounded on the last day of a turbulent month for stocks which saw much of the January gains wiped out, and even with S&P futures inching above 4000 the S&P 500 was on course to post a monthly decline as investor fears about a hawkish Fed response to sticky inflation prevailed. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 rose 0.4% at 7:45 a.m. ET; the S&P 500 is set for a drop of more than 2% in February, trimming a sharp rally last month. Bonds sank in the wake of reports that showed accelerating inflation in France and Spain. The dollar reversed earlier gains and crypto rose.
Among notable movers in premarket trading, Zoom jumped after the video-conferencing software company issued an outlook for adjusted earnings that was much stronger than expected. Workday Inc. dropped after results, with analysts saying that the payroll software company’s outlook for subscription growth was cautious. Target rose after results beat expectations and Chevron expanded its stock buyback plans. Here are all the notable premarket movers:
Chevron shares gain 1.3% as the company increased its annual rate of share buybacks in a show of confidence in its cash-generation goals.
Dish Network Corp. shares are down 4.5% after BofA downgraded the satellite television company by two notches.
Hims & Hers Health gains 9.1% after the health-care software solutions company posted 4Q results and 2023 guidance that beat estimates.
Norwegian Cruise shares tumble about 6% after the company’s adjusted loss per share and adjusted Ebitda loss were worse than analysts expected in the fourth quarter. Peers Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) are trading about 1% lower.
Olaplex falls 15% after the maker of hair-care products issued weaker-than-expected forecasts for net sales and adjusted Ebitda for the current year, projecting that 2023 will be a “reset year.”
Progyny jumps 16% after forecasting 1Q revenue that beat the average of analysts’ estimates.
Tesla shares gain 2.2% as the electric carmaker closes in on the market capitalization of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. — the fifth most-valuable company in the S&P 500.
Target Corp. rises 1.3% after turning in a strong fourth-quarter performance, but the company offered a cautious financial forecast for this year as the retailer contends with shaky demand for discretionary goods.
Workday shares decline 2.4%, with analysts noting the payroll software company’s cautious outlook for subscription growth, defying expectations for a stronger outlook.
Zoom Video shares gain nearly 7% after the video-conferencing software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that was much stronger than expected.
After a strong start to the year, demand for US stocks has tapered in February as data showed inflation remained elevated, raising fears that the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer. The first quarterly decline in corporate earnings since 2020 has also hit risk sentiment. “The more upbeat sentiment that kicked off the week is ebbing away, with investors refocusing on risks ahead for the global economy,” said Susannah Streeter, head of markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Both US and European stocks ended last week with their biggest five-day drop this year on concern that central banks will ramp up their battle on inflation seemingly invulnerable to aggressive policy. Positioning data shows investors becoming more pessimistic as they amass short bets in both US and European equity futures, according to Citigroup strategist Chris Montagu who said investor sentiment toward stocks was starting to become pessimistic as they built short bets on S&P 500 futures last week. Other market strategists including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley have also warned that equities could see pressure in March from faltering earnings and higher valuations.
“Equity markets are not appreciating the macro challenges ahead,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc. “That is not to say we cannot have shorter term bouts of rally, like what we saw in January, driven by technical factors, driven by FOMO.”
European stocks are in the red but off their worst levels with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%. Healthcare and construction are the worst performing sectors while banks and insurance rise. European bond yields climbed as investors digested hotter-than-expected inflation prints in France and Spain, prompting traders to crank up wagers for the ECB deposit rate to hit 4% for the first time, sending the yield on two-year German debt to the highest since 2008. Here are the most notable European movers:
Monte Paschi falls as much as 13% after French insurer Axa launched a private placing of about 100 million shares through an accelerated book-building process at a price of €2.33 per share
Bayer shares slide 5.2% after the global agriculture and pharmaceutical company’s earnings outlook fell short of estimates due to declining prices for crop products
Ocado shares drop as much as 10% after the online grocer reported a full-year pretax loss that was bigger than analysts expected
Adecco shares drop as much as 3.6% following the staffing company’s fourth- quarter results, with analysts highlighting the impact of higher costs and potential for downgrades to consensus estimates
Travis Perkins shares drop as much as 8.7%, the most intraday since August, after the UK builders’ merchant’s full-year results missed expectations
Banco Santander shares gain as much as 3.2% after the Spanish lender unveiled a new 2023-2025 plan as it hosts an investor day in London on Tuesday
Man Group Plc shares surge as much as 11%, their biggest jump since March 2020, after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund defied the gloom in the industry
St James’s Place shares rise as much as 3.8% in early trading after the UK wealth manager’s underlying profit topped expectations
Worldline shares rise as much as 3.4% as Morgan Stanley raises the French payments company to overweight from equal-weight, saying it offers an “attractive and defensive growth” outlook
Saipem advances as much as 6.2% before paring some gains as the Italian oil-drilling specialist posted above- consensus guidance for 2023 after fourth-quarter Ebitda beat expectations
Asian stocks were headed for their worst month since September as a repricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy and an evaporating China rally weighed on the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5% on Tuesday, driven by consumer discretionary and communication shares. Hong Kong stocks declined the most even as the city said it will end its mask mandate. A late afternoon surge helped Chinese shares close in the green. The regional stock measure has fallen more than 6% in February, erasing a bulk of January’s advance. Catalysts appear stretched amid concerns over global monetary policy, while China investors await a key meeting of the nation’s political leaders starting this weekend for further clues.
Investors have moved to price in a peak Federal Reserve rate of 5.4% amid elevated US inflation, pressuring riskier assets including those in Asian emerging markets. “It seems a lot of traders are not confident” as the economy still looks too strong for disinflation trends to resume, Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “The Fed has a lot more work to do and that should be a difficult environment for stocks.”
Japanese equities trimmed earlier gains amid cautious sentiment as investors came to terms with further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The Topix was little changed as of market close Tokyo time, paring most of its 0.4% advance. The Nikkei rose less than 0.1% to 27,445.56. Services were the biggest boost to the Topix among industry groups. Oriental Land contributed the most to the advance, rising 3.5%. US Business Equipment Orders Increase by the Most in Five Months “While stocks in Japan rose following US peers, the market is still cautious about the outlook,” said Shogo Maekawa, a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. “If US economic indicators continue to exceed market expectations and interest rates rise, that will create headwinds for both US and Japanese stocks.”
Australian stocks advanced; the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 7,258.40, reclaiming some of Monday’s decline as miners and energy stocks climbed. Even with Tuesday’s advance, the benchmark notched a 2.9% monthly loss. Disappointing earnings results and worries over the Fed’s outlook weighed on the gauge in February. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.9% to 11,894.58
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, and Treasury yields inched up; the British pound is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.1% versus the greenback. One-month risk reversals in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remain under pressure in the past couple of weeks and point to a bearish correction, yet long-term bets suggest this will be short-lived. Here is the full FX scoreboard:
The euro swung from a day low of 1.0582 to touch a high of $1.0625 following strong inflation readings from France and Spain. Euro-area bonds slid as traders bet the ECB will raise interest rates to a record high of 4%.
The pound led G-10 gains, climbing against both the dollar and the euro for a second day as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland provided support. Gilts fell as traders raised tightening bets as much as 5bps, wagering on a 4.89% terminal rate by November.
The Australian dollar erased Monday’s gain as broad greenback strength outweighed strong local economic data. Australian retail sales rebound, rising 7.5% from a year ago in sign of consumer resilience and keeping pressure on RBA. Bonds held opening gains.
The yen was among the worst G-10 performers and most Japanese government bonds gained, flattening the yield curve, as concern eased that the BOJ will change its stimulus program any time soon.
In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, following wider losses across core European rates after French and Spanish inflation data surprised to the upside, causing a new wave of hawkish repricing for ECB policy rate. US 10-year yields around 3.95%, cheaper by ~3bp vs Monday’s close, with bunds and gilts underperforming by ~4.5bp and ~1.3bp in the sector; front-end slightly outperforms, steepening 2s10s spread by 1bp on the day. Following France, Spain inflation data, euro-zone front-end repriced for a peak ECB rate of 4% for the first time. Bund futures fell; German 10-year yields are up 6bps on the day while two-year yields climb 8bps. Focal points of US session include potential for month-end flows and a packed economic data slate.
In commodities, oil was set for a fourth straight monthly decline as concerns about tighter monetary policy and swelling stockpiles in the US eclipsed optimism about rising demand in China. Crude future advance with WTI rising 1.1% to trade near $76.50; Gold headed for its worst month since the middle of 2021, and on Tuesday fell roughly 0.4% to trade near $1,810.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes January advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am New York time), 4Q house price purchase index and December FHFA house price index and S&P Case- Shiller home prices (9am), February MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), Richmond Fed manufacturing index, consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, the ECB’s Vujcic, and the BoE’s Cunliffe, Pill and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Target.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,978.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 460.78
MXAP down 0.4% to 157.58
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 510.36
Nikkei little changed at 27,445.56
Topix little changed at 1,993.28
Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 19,785.94
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,279.61
Sensex down 0.6% to 58,944.15
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,258.40
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,412.85
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.65%
Euro little changed at $1.0616
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $83.02/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,811.43
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.66
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Tuesday brushed aside the chance of an immediate overhaul of ultra-loose monetary policy, suggesting that any review of its policy framework could take about a year. RTRS
Investors and traders continue to ramp up their bullish bets on the yen, with one eye firmly fixed on looming Bank of Japan management changes: BBG
Ukraine’s head of military intelligence downplays talk of China supplying arms to Russia, saying he saw “no signs that such things are even being discussed”. SCMP
Apple’s suppliers are likely to shift production capacity out of China far faster than many anticipate given deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing. BBG
Euro-area bonds slid and traders bet the ECB will raise interest rates to the highest level on record amid signs inflation in some of the region’s biggest economies is not coming under control. Data showed French and Spanish inflation unexpectedly accelerated to an all-time high in February, spurring money-markets traders to fully price a 4% ECB terminal rate, which would exceed a peak in borrowing costs seen more than two decades ago. That compares to 3.5% expected at the start of the year, with traders now betting the ECB will keep raising rates through February 2024. BBG
Euro zone inflation pressures have begun to ease, including for all-important core prices, but the European Central Bank will not end rate hikes until it is confident price growth is heading back towards 2%, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said. RTRS
The ECB might hold borrowing costs at a high level for some time once they reach their peak, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane: BBG
Credit Suisse “seriously breached” risk management obligations in the Greensill affair, the Swiss banking regulator said as it opened enforcement proceedings against four unnamed former managers. Remedial measures include regular executive board-level reviews of key relationships for counterparty risks and recording the responsibilities of its 600 highest-ranking employees. BBG
META’s new AI-driven Advantage+ tool, designed to overcome Apple’s privacy restrictions, is “significantly boosting the performance of advertising campaigns”. FT
Chevron rose premarket after it raised its annual buyback rate to $17.5 billion beginning in the second quarter, up from a previously planned $15 billion. BBG
The Swiss economy unexpectedly failed to grow in the final months of 2022 as manufacturing output contracted and exports weighed on momentum. Separately, Switzerland’s KOF Economic Leading Indicator rose more than economists expected in February, to 100 versus estimate 98.0: BBG
The BOJ should take time over any future review if it undertakes one, according to deputy governor nominee Shinichi Uchida, a key engineer of the central bank’s easing program: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed heading into month-end and despite the early momentum from the positive close on Wall St where risk sentiment benefitted as yields softened amid mixed data. ASX 200 was led by strength in the mining-related industries and after mostly encouraging data releases including a stronger-than-expected rebound in retail sales. Nikkei 225 initially gained amid the upper house confirmation hearings where the BoJ Deputy nominees reiterated the need to continue monetary easing, although the gains were gradually pared as participants also digested mixed data including the largest monthly decline in industrial production in 8 months. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. failed to sustain opening advances despite a substantial liquidity injection and reports the White House is scaling back plans to regulate US investments in China.
Top Asian News
PBoC injected CNY 481bln via 7-day reverse repos at 2.00% for a CNY 331bln net injection.
White House is scaling back plans to regulate US investments in China with US President Biden expected to forego expansive new restrictions on American investment in China, according to Politico.
White House gave federal agencies 30 days to ensure they have TikTok bans on federal devices and systems, while it directed federal agencies to adjust contracts to ensure IT vendors keep US data safe by eliminating the use of TikTok on devices and systems, according to Reuters.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Uchida reiterated that the BoJ needs to continue monetary easing for the time being to support the economy and shouldn’t review easy monetary policy just because there are side effects. Uchida added the BoJ will conduct policy flexibly and will firmly continue monetary easing to lay the ground for companies to raise wages, while he added that it is too early to seek an exit from monetary stimulus and that widening the yield target band itself would weaken effects of easing.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Himino said NIRP has negative impacts on financial institutions’ profits and that they must be mindful of the impact to banks from negative rates but the focus now should be on keeping easy policy to support the economy. Himino stated that if conditions fall in place for BoJ to exit easy policy, that would be good for both the public and banks but added that the best approach is to support the economy with easy policy until inflation can achieve the BoJ’s price target excluding the impact of import price increases.
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the initial pressure from hot French/Spanish inflation readings has eased through the morning. Sectors, are mixed with Banking/Financial names outperforming as yields lift alongside specific stock updates. Stateside, futures are little changed overall with the morning’s action moving in-tandem with European performance ahead of earnings/Fed speak, ES +0.1% Foxlink, an Apple (AAPL) supplier, will not be able to resume full operations at its India plant for two months following a fire, via Reuters citing sources. Apple could potentially face disruptions in supply chain for iPhones due to Foxlink incident. Chevron (CVX) reaffirms higher returns and lower carbon objectives, lifts share buyback guidance to USD 10-20bln/year; increases targeted annual share buyback rate to USD 17.5bln from Q2. Apple (AAPL) probe by Brussels into the Co.’s restriction of certain apps has been narrowed, according to FT sources. The US is to prevent businesses from using cash for buybacks in the CHIPS Act, according to the Commerce Department; Additionally, cannot make new, high-tech investments in China or other “countries of concern” for at least a decade. A release that is in-fitting with recent press reports.
Top European News
ECB’s Lane says positive supply shocks since December and rate hikes have curbed inflationary pressures, forward looking indicators for food, energy and goods suggests inflation slowdown. Rate plateau should be held for some time, rates could be in restrictive territory for a number of quarters; hikes to end when it is clear inflation is heading to target.
Northern Ireland DUP leader Donaldson says the Stormont Break in the Northern Ireland deal at first glance does give Stormont the ability to apply the break. Continue to have some concerns with the deal.
EIB President proposes a new fund to see off US subsidies, via Der Spiegel; concerned that entire industries will migrate to the US given the subsidies on offer there.
FX
The DXY is firmer on the session, though remains closer to its 104.57 trough then the 104.90 high, a low that printed in wake of shortlived EUR upside following February flash CPI metrics from France/Spain.
Specifically, the price points lifted EUR/USD to a 1.0625 peak, though this has proved shortlived as the USD remains resilient and given unfavourable EUR/GBP action as the mood-music re. N. Ireland remains positive, on balance.
As such, GBP is the G10 outperformer with Cable testing the 1.21 mark vs a 1.2028 base following a favourable face-value take from DUP’s Donaldson; though, sources indicate the parties’ review could potentially take weeks.
JPY is the G10 laggard given unfavourable yield action and more dovish remarks from the BoJ deputy nominees; USD/JPY at the top-end of 136.12-84 parameters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9519 vs exp. 6.9515 (prev. 6.9572)
Fixed Income
Debt futures fade after the latest dead cat bounce and curves re-steepen.
Bunds hit a fresh 132.51 cycle low, Gilts down to 99.38 and T-note retreats within 111-21+/10 range, solid 2025 German auction, albeit after heavy concession helps Schatz pare some losses between 115.52-114.95 parameters.
JGBs outperform after more dovish testimony from BoJ nominees and decent 2 year sale.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are firmer on the session and currently reside at the top-end of narrow circa. USD 1/bbl parameters which are just about within Monday’s range, with newsflow limited and the complex seemingly continuing to consolidate.
Japan plans to emphasise the importance of investments into natgas, LNG, hydrogen and ammonia during its G7 presidency, according to a METI official.
LME announces immediate suspension of warranting, applicable to LME-listed warehouses located in the US of any new primary aluminium, copper, lead, nickel or aluminium alloy (in form of NASAAC). Currently Russian NASAAC on warrant, 400/T, in LME-listed warehouses within the US. Suspending use of such warrants for use in settlement of LME NASAAC futures.
Spot gold is a touch softer on the session as initial USD-induced upside has faded as the index moves back into positive territory, albeit only modestly so; more broadly, base metals are mixed given the USD’s resilience and inflation metrics weighing.
Geopolitics
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russia will not resume participation in START talks until Washington listens to Moscow’s position, while he added that NATO no longer acts as Russia’s conditional opponent but as an enemy.
Russian Defence Ministry said the US is planning provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals, according to TASS.
Russian domestic flights heading for St Petersburg are reportedly turning around, via Reuters citing a flight radar tracking site; Pulkovo airport has been closed to air traffic, due to an unidentified object with fighter jets responding, via BAZA. Airspace around the airport has subsequently reopened.
Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attempted to attack two Russian regions with drones overnight, via Ria.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
Jan. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
09:00: Dec. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 4.75%, prior 6.77%
Dec. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. -0.40%, prior -0.54%
Dec. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.1%
09:45: Feb. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.5, prior 44.3
10:00: Feb. Richmond Fed Business Conditions, prior -10
Feb. Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior -11
10:00: Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 108.5, prior 107.1
Feb. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 150.9
Feb. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 77.8
Central Bank Speakers
14:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Community College
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Regular readers won’t be surprised to learn that I have a new injury. As soon as I was fit to resume normal activities after my recent back operation I went back to weights. I only do this to be better at golf. In my first couple of sessions back 2 weeks ago, I overdid the bench press and to cut a long story short I now have a rhomboid muscle strain or tear. I’ve stupidly tried to continue playing golf with it and have made it worse. I’m now in a lot of pain and probably out from golf for a few weeks. I come away from it wishing that my mid-life crisis was more skewed towards fast cars, tattoos, or a hair transplant rather than golfing ambitions.
After a rough three weeks for equities, bonds and my shoulder, markets have started this one off in a better mood so far as we hit the last day of the month today. That’s a sixth of the year nearly gone! They have edged higher thanks to a positive round of US data, whilst pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate remained stable after a sustained stretch higher over recent days. This in turn gave markets a clearer run to positively respond to the data across bonds and equities.
Things had looked quite different earlier in the day. In fact, at one point the 10yr Treasury yield reached its highest intraday level since November at 3.977%, before moving lower in the US morning, and ultimately closing -2.9bps lower at 3.914%. In the meantime, expectations of the terminal rate had likewise been on track to hit a new closing high and moved as high as 5.43% intraday, before ending the session little changed at 5.404%.
In risk markets, positive US data without a rates repricing helped, with core capital goods orders up by +0.8% in January (vs. unch expected). On top of that, there was further evidence that housing activity might have bottomed, since pending home sales were up +8.1% in January (vs. +1.0% expected), which leaves the index at its highest level since August. However note that mortgage rates have gone back up in February so we’ll see how strong the nascent housing recovery is.
For equities, the S&P 500 (+0.31%) posted a steady advance led by cyclical and growth sectors. The NASDAQ (+0.63%) outperformed, and the FANG+ index (+1.51%) saw an even larger advance thanks to a solid gain from Tesla (+5.46%) which ended the day as the 4th best performer in the entire S&P 500. Defensives lagged, as bond-proxies such as utilities (-0.77%) and food staples (-0.54%) were the worst performing industries. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.07%) posted a decent broad-based recovery. Every sector of the index was higher, but like with the US, defensives lagged their more cyclical peers.
The exception to the pattern of positive data came from the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index for February, which came in at -13.5 (vs. -9.3 expected). Notably, there were also increases in the prices paid and prices received components, with both hitting a 5-month high. That topic of inflationary pressures in February is likely to stay in the spotlight today, since this morning we’ve got the flash releases from France, Spain and Portugal, ahead of the Euro Area-wide release on Thursday. Remember that our European economists expect Euro Area core inflation to hit a new record of +5.5%, although they see headline inflation coming down a bit further to +8.4%, which would be a 4th decline since the +10.6% peak back in October.
This concern about inflation meant that European markets performed a bit differently to the US yesterday, with sovereign bond yields rising to fresh highs in several countries. For instance, the 10yr bund yield (+4.5bps) closed at its highest level since 2011, ending the day at 2.582%. And in the UK, the 10yr gilt yields was up +14.6bps to 3.805%, marking its highest level since Liz Truss was still PM back in October. Those moves came as investors continued to price in a more hawkish policy path for the ECB, building on the shift over recent weeks. Indeed, overnight index swaps are now pricing in no rate cuts at all in 2023, and by the December meeting they’re now pricing in +137bps of further hikes.
That repricing of the ECB’s rate path was seemingly endorsed by Croatia’s Vujcic yesterday, who said that the repricing reflected the ECB’s moves, and that markets were right to price in 50bps next time as they’d indicated. He also said that as long as core inflation persisted, then the ECB must persevere. Meanwhile at the Fed, the only major speaker was Governor Jefferson (who previously spoke on Friday), but he offered little new information on the policy side. One thing he did say was that raising the Fed’s inflation target could hurt their credibility, and pointed out that the outlook for core services ex housing inflation (which Chair Powell has said they are following) remained uncertain. Yet in spite of his reiteration of the 2% goal, short-term US inflation expectations continued to move higher yesterday, with the 2yr breakeven (+3.4bps) hitting a fresh 6-month high of 3.088%. In a WSJ interview published yesterday, Cleveland Fed President Mester seemed to imply that the threshold to go back to 50bps hikes would be high. She noted that “this is a different situation now. We’ve already reduced it to 25 (basis points). That’s going to be part of the consideration.” However, she noted that the more pertinent discussion for the FOMC in March will be just how much further the policy rate needs to go.
Overnight in Asia, major benchmarks are trying to catch up with yesterday’s price action in the US, with the Kospi (+0.64%) and the Hang Seng (+0.41%) outpacing the Nikkei (+0.13%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.07%). US futures are also in the green, led by the Nasdaq 100 (+0.18%) while the S&P 500 is flat (+0.01%). The 10y yield is marginally higher (+1.2bps), mirroring the move in the 2y (+1.5bps).
Back here in the UK, sterling strengthened (+1.00%) after the government reached a deal with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has been the most contentious part of the original Brexit deal. In essence, the Protocol was designed to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but in doing so placed checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, whilst Northern Ireland also remained aligned with the EU single market for goods. This has been opposed by unionists in Northern Ireland, who see the Protocol as placing an economic border with the UK, and the DUP (the largest unionist party there) have refused to enter a power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland because of it.
When it comes to the new agreement, it removes checks on goods that move from Great Britain into Northern Ireland that remain within the UK. It also enables VAT and excise changes to apply on a UK-wide basis in future, including to Northern Ireland. And a new mechanism was introduced that will allow the devolved Northern Ireland Assembly to decide whether or not changes to EU goods rules affecting Northern Ireland should apply. If this brake is pulled, the UK government would have a veto over the application of a new EU rule. Leader of the DUP, Jeffery Donaldson said his party needed to go over the finer points of the agreement over the next few days, but that “in broad terms it is clear that significant progress has been secured across a number of areas.”
To the day ahead now, and data releases include French CPI for February, Canada’s Q4 GDP, and in the US there’s the FHFA house price index for December, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for February, the MNI Chicago PMI for February, and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, the ECB’s Vujcic, and the BoE’s Cunliffe, Pill and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Target.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities recover from inflation-induced pressure, bonds remain underwater – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 06:33 AM
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the initial pressure from hot French/Spanish inflation readings has eased through the morning.
US futures in-fitting with the above ahead of Fed speak; AAPL lower on Foxlink, CVX higher post-buyback update.
DXY is firmer, but is closer to the session trough, while EUR has faded initial CPI-induced upside, GBP outperforms & JPY lags.
Debt futures fade with Bunds at a fresh cycle low and curves re-steepening, JGBs outperform following a 2yr sale and dovish BoJ nominee testimony.
Crude is firmer and seemingly continues to consolidate while metals generally are mixed given the above.
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, International Energy Week (1/3), Speeches from BoE’s Pill & Fed’s Goolsbee. Earnings from Target & HP.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the initial pressure from hot French/Spanish inflation readings has eased through the morning.
Sectors, are mixed with Banking/Financial names outperforming as yields lift alongside specific stock updates.
Stateside, futures are little changed overall with the morning’s action moving in-tandem with European performance ahead of earnings/Fed speak, ES +0.1%
Foxlink, an Apple (AAPL) supplier, will not be able to resume full operations at its India plant for two months following a fire, via Reuters citing sources. Apple could potentially face disruptions in supply chain for iPhones due to Foxlink incident.
Chevron (CVX) reaffirms higher returns and lower carbon objectives, lifts share buyback guidance to USD 10-20bln/year; increases targeted annual share buyback rate to USD 17.5bln from Q2.
Apple (AAPL) probe by Brussels into the Co.’s restriction of certain apps has been narrowed, according to FT sources.
The US is to prevent businesses from using cash for buybacks in the CHIPS Act, according to the Commerce Department; Additionally, cannot make new, high-tech investments in China or other “countries of concern” for at least a decade. A release that is in-fitting with recent press reports.
The DXY is firmer on the session, though remains closer to its 104.57 trough then the 104.90 high, a low that printed in wake of shortlived EUR upside following February flash CPI metrics from France/Spain.
Specifically, the price points lifted EUR/USD to a 1.0625 peak, though this has proved shortlived as the USD remains resilient and given unfavourable EUR/GBP action as the mood-music re. N. Ireland remains positive, on balance.
As such, GBP is the G10 outperformer with Cable testing the 1.21 mark vs a 1.2028 base following a favourable face-value take from DUP’s Donaldson; though, sources indicate the parties’ review could potentially take weeks.
JPY is the G10 laggard given unfavourable yield action and more dovish remarks from the BoJ deputy nominees; USD/JPY at the top-end of 136.12-84 parameters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9519 vs exp. 6.9515 (prev. 6.9572)
Debt futures fade after the latest dead cat bounce and curves re-steepen.
Bunds hit a fresh 132.51 cycle low, Gilts down to 99.38 and T-note retreats within 111-21+/10 range, solid 2025 German auction, albeit after heavy concession helps Schatz pare some losses between 115.52-114.95 parameters.
JGBs outperform after more dovish testimony from BoJ nominees and decent 2 year sale.
WTI and Brent are firmer on the session and currently reside at the top-end of narrow circa. USD 1/bbl parameters which are just about within Monday’s range, with newsflow limited and the complex seemingly continuing to consolidate.
Japan plans to emphasise the importance of investments into natgas, LNG, hydrogen and ammonia during its G7 presidency, according to a METI official.
LME announces immediate suspension of warranting, applicable to LME-listed warehouses located in the US of any new primary aluminium, copper, lead, nickel or aluminium alloy (in form of NASAAC). Currently Russian NASAAC on warrant, 400/T, in LME-listed warehouses within the US. Suspending use of such warrants for use in settlement of LME NASAAC futures.
Spot gold is a touch softer on the session as initial USD-induced upside has faded as the index moves back into positive territory, albeit only modestly so; more broadly, base metals are mixed given the USD’s resilience and inflation metrics weighing.
ECB’s Lane says positive supply shocks since December and rate hikes have curbed inflationary pressures, forward looking indicators for food, energy and goods suggests inflation slowdown. Rate plateau should be held for some time, rates could be in restrictive territory for a number of quarters; hikes to end when it is clear inflation is heading to target.
Northern Ireland DUP leader Donaldson says the Stormont Break in the Northern Ireland deal at first glance does give Stormont the ability to apply the break. Continue to have some concerns with the deal.
EIB President proposes a new fund to see off US subsidies, via Der Spiegel; concerned that entire industries will migrate to the US given the subsidies on offer there.
DATA RECAP
French CPI Prelim. YY NSA (Feb) 6.2% vs exp. 6.1% (prev. 6.0%); MM 0.9% vs exp. 0.7% (prev. 0.4%)
Spain CPI Flash (Feb): 6.1% vs exp. 5.7% (prev. 5.9%) YY; 1.00% (prev. -0.20%) MM
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russia will not resume participation in START talks until Washington listens to Moscow’s position, while he added that NATO no longer acts as Russia’s conditional opponent but as an enemy.
Russian Defence Ministry said the US is planning provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals, according to TASS.
Russian domestic flights heading for St Petersburg are reportedly turning around, via Reuters citing a flight radar tracking site; Pulkovo airport has been closed to air traffic, due to an unidentified object with fighter jets responding, via BAZA. Airspace around the airport has subsequently reopened.
Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attempted to attack two Russian regions with drones overnight, via Ria.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is unchanged on the session. Currently, residing within tight sub-USD 400 parameters with specific drivers limited and little fresh/pertinent commentary from BoE’s Cunliffe on crypto thus far.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed heading into month-end and despite the early momentum from the positive close on Wall St where risk sentiment benefitted as yields softened amid mixed data.
ASX 200 was led by strength in the mining-related industries and after mostly encouraging data releases including a stronger-than-expected rebound in retail sales.
Nikkei 225 initially gained amid the upper house confirmation hearings where the BoJ Deputy nominees reiterated the need to continue monetary easing, although the gains were gradually pared as participants also digested mixed data including the largest monthly decline in industrial production in 8 months.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. failed to sustain opening advances despite a substantial liquidity injection and reports the White House is scaling back plans to regulate US investments in China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 481bln via 7-day reverse repos at 2.00% for a CNY 331bln net injection.
White House is scaling back plans to regulate US investments in China with US President Biden expected to forego expansive new restrictions on American investment in China, according to Politico.
White House gave federal agencies 30 days to ensure they have TikTok bans on federal devices and systems, while it directed federal agencies to adjust contracts to ensure IT vendors keep US data safe by eliminating the use of TikTok on devices and systems, according to Reuters.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Uchida reiterated that the BoJ needs to continue monetary easing for the time being to support the economy and shouldn’t review easy monetary policy just because there are side effects. Uchida added the BoJ will conduct policy flexibly and will firmly continue monetary easing to lay the ground for companies to raise wages, while he added that it is too early to seek an exit from monetary stimulus and that widening the yield target band itself would weaken effects of easing.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Himino said NIRP has negative impacts on financial institutions’ profits and that they must be mindful of the impact to banks from negative rates but the focus now should be on keeping easy policy to support the economy. Himino stated that if conditions fall in place for BoJ to exit easy policy, that would be good for both the public and banks but added that the best approach is to support the economy with easy policy until inflation can achieve the BoJ’s price target excluding the impact of import price increases.
BoJ Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds; click here for more detail.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Industrial Production MM (Jan P) -4.6% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. 0.3%); Retail Sales YY (Jan) 6.3% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.8%)
Australian Current Account Balance (AUD) (Q4) 14.1B vs. Exp. 6.5B (Prev. -2.3B); Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -0.2%)
Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Jan) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -3.9%)
New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Feb) -43.3% (Prev. -52.0%); Own Activity (Feb) -9.2% (Prev. -15.8%)
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.66% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 157.57 PTS OR 0.79% /The Nikkei closed UP 21.60% PTS OR .08% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9380 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9562// /Oil UP TO 77.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.29 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/COVID
3c CHINA /
CHINA/
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
Hungary//Nordstream
It is quite possible that Russia has answered the scandalous attack on Nordstream with their ransomware against ION group
(Watson/SummitNews)
Hungary Demands UN Investigation Into “Scandalous” Attack On Nord Stream Pipelines
Hungary has called for a UN investigation into the “scandalous” attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, which journalist Seymour Hersh asserted were destroyed by the United States.
Three of the four natural gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany were sabotaged in September last year, an attack that must have been carried out by a state actor.
The attack left Germany and other European countries dependent on US energy, prompting them to support escalation of the war in Ukraine.
Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Hersh published an article earlier this month in which he asserted that the pipelines were destroyed by the US as part of a covert operation.
According to Hersh’s sources, the explosives were planted in June 2022 by US Navy divers under the guise of the BALTOPS 22 NATO exercise and were detonated three months later with a remote signal sent by a sonar buoy.
One source told Hersh that the plotters knew the covert operation was an “act of war,” with some in the CIA and State Department warning, “Don’t do this. It’s stupid and will be a political nightmare if it comes out.”
After China demanded that the United States “explain itself to the world” over the claims, Hungary has now added its voice to the call for a full and proper investigation.
“This is basically the first time when such a major European critical infrastructure was attacked. By whoever – but it was attacked,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told RIA Novosti.
Szijjarto added that the sabotage was a “scandalous” act of terrorism and the truth as to finding out who was responsible should be of the utmost international importance.
Budapest wants know “who committed it and why,” asking for a “comprehensive, deep, structured and detailed” probe conducted under the auspices of the UN.
“I think the UN should give a framework for such kind of an investigation,” said Szijjarto, adding that the international body should act as a “platform for countries to talk to each other, who even consider each other as enemies.”
As we previously highlighted, former NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden responded to the White House’s denial that US intelligence agencies were responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines by pointing out that they also once denied involvement in the Bay of Pigs invasion and other false flags.
end
Europe/ECB
ECB rate hike odds soar after huge increases in French and Spanish inflation
(zerohedge)
ECB Rate-Hike Odds Soar After French, Spanish Inflation Re-Surges
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 08:53 AM
The last week or so in the US has seen the disinflationistas get a gut punch from hot CPI, PPI, and PCE prints.
Today was Europe’s turn as consumer prices in France jumped by a euro-era record 7.2% from a year ago in February as food and services costs increased, and Spain saw a stronger-than-expected 6.1% advance.
Source: Bloomberg
French flash February HICP inflation was 7.2%yoy in February, 0.2pp higher than the January print and consensus expectations. The press release notes that energy price inflation cooled in February as the increase in regulated electricity prices is offset by a decline in petrol prices. CPI energy inflation cooled from 16.3%yoy in January to 14.0%yoy in February. CPI food inflation increased further to 14.5%yoy in February from 13.3%yoy in January, though the press release notes that sequential food price pressures are easing. Within core, year-on-year CPI goods inflation ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 4.6%yoy, while services inflation increased 0.3pp to 2.9%yoy. In sequential seasonally adjusted terms, manufactured products inflation in February was unchanged relative to January at 0.50%mom, while sequential services inflation increased sharply to 0.56%mom, up from 0.06%mom in January.
Spanish flash HICP inflation also surprised to the upside at 6.1%yoy in January, 0.2pp above the January print and four-tenths of a percentage point above consensus expectations. The press release notes that higher electricity prices pushed up inflation in February, and this was only partially offset by lower petrol prices. Core CPI inflation increased to 7.7%yoy in February, up two-tenths of a percentage point relative to January.
In response to this, Goldman raised their Euro area headline inflation forecast to 8.36%yoy, from 8.31%yoy previously, and marked up their core inflation tracking estimate by 11bp to 5.28%yoy, given today’s news of more sticky core services inflation pressures in France, and further core inflation pressures in Spain.
Bank of France chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau reckons soaring prices are nearing their peak. After next month’s likely 50 basis-point rate increase, there’ll be less “urgency” for the ECB to act, he said this month.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government will come under more pressure to keep a lid on prices in an election year in which he’s widely expected to seek another term.
But to both of their chagrins, the stronger readings from the euro zone’s second- and fourth-biggest economies will cement the half-point rate move the ECB is planning for March…
Additionally, today’s prints have prompted further repricing of the market’s expectations for the ECB’s terminal rate – now approaching a record 4.00%…
Bloomberg economist Ana Andrade noted:
“The increase in Spain’s headline EU harmonized inflation is another reminder that the path of price growth will be choppy and sticky on its way down, as underlying price pressures remain strong. While base effects will dominate over the next few months, bringing inflation meaningfully down by the summer, we still expect it to end the year at above 5%.”
Wherever it ends up, it may stay there for a while. Chief Economist Philip Lane said in remarks to Reuters published earlier Tuesday that officials may hold borrowing costs at a high level for some time once they hit the peak.
end
This should be quite enlightening!
(Thomas Brooke/Remix/)
Muhammad Was The Most Popular Boy’s Name In Irish City In 2022
It follows a trend being witnessed across northern Europe following years of mass migration from predominantly Muslim countries…
Muhammad became the most popular boy’s baby name in the Irish city of Galway last year, data published on Friday by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) revealed.
It is the first time the popular Islamic name has topped the list of baby names in an Irish city, and follows the trend of the U.K. and other European nations that have seen the name top the charts in recent years.
Jack and Noah dominated in other Irish counties, while James made up the top three. All three names retain their places in the top three from last year.
Emily, Grace, and Fiadh made up the top three most-popular girl’s names across the country.
The city of Galway can be viewed as something of an anomaly with Muhammad placed 86th in the nationwide ranking, although the name has grown in popularity and is up from 109th in 2021.
The different variations of the spelling can often conflate data, with Muhammed, Mohamed, and Mohammed all being acceptable alterations of the name, along with several others.
Mohammad has been the most popular boy’s baby name in the U.K. for the past six years, while it was the second-most popular name in the Netherlands last year.
WLZ Air is cancelling all flights in and out of Moldova mid March. Expect other carriers to vacate flying there. The Ukrainians have about 20,000 soldiers and armored vehicles massed at 3 points on the Ukraine/Transnistria border imagining they will seize 20,000 tons of Ammo to use in their conflict with Russia. And they would like to have faster access to transport of arms through Transnistria from Romania which they cannot obtain now. They are dead wrong!
Yes, like all good PR outfits Zelensky needs a distraction for the Ukrainians in Ukraine and something to sell abroad for all the money flowing in. Especially when the collapse of Bakhmut is official, which it will be within the next 2 weeks. The Ukrainians there will surrender or they will die, it is that simple. So yes a distraction is needed.
One might imagine that Russia cannot and will not allow ammo they produced to be captured by Zelensky and to be used against Russian troops. It is simply a none starter as to allow this would mean the hard liners would seize the upper hand in a push for the unthinkable. Thus, a solution exists and perhaps it will shock some reason into Europe.
A non nuclear ballistic missile strike on the main ammo depot would be equivalent of a nuclear blast. A blast whether it is non nuclear of such force would create a mass level of damage that will go outside of Transnistria affecting Moldova. Moldova has been warned by Russia and realities explained in blunt language. Sadly, they are caught in the middle and are most expendable in what comes.
Part of the delay in going in now, is the timing of the disclosed fall of Bakhmut and the time for Romania to move up it’s air defenses to engage such Russian aircraft that maybe sent to support the 10,000 Russian Peacekeepers in Transnistria
. Is this stupid? Yes, however if you wish to broaden the war all that is needed is for Romania as a NATO country to shoot down a Russian aircraft to trigger a response. Could or would Russia respond ? Odds are considerable that they just might as this maybe the one provocation too many. And to think they will flatten all bases in Romania alone is imagination or a fairytale. If and should such event occur, then Russia will have been attacked by NATO and WWIII will start with a bang heard around the world because it will not be an isolated response.
Even the attack in Belarus on the air base is a US warning to them not to get too close to China this week. As China intends to establish manufacturing plants there that will be used for civilian and military purposes. Belarus knows regime change smells when it sees them and is unlikely to roll over. China is getting up to speed on the true state of affairs losing any shred of hope for peace. Their last Russian briefing left no doubt of what the Russians see and their position. War is what the Neocons in America want and it is not only with Russia but China as well. Traveling to Europe this spring requires diligence and discretion.
END
5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
12 drones attack Russian cities
(zerohedge)
Mass Drone Attack Unleashes Chaos, Air Raid Sirens Inside Russia
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 09:15 AM
Russia has come under attack by multiple drones on Tuesday, with one of those drones reportedly causing a fire at an oil depot in the southern part of the country, and another hitting outside Moscow.
The attack on the oil facility happened in Tuapse, which lies about 150 miles southeast of the Crimean peninsula, with Reuters citing local media to report, “Emergency services put out a fire at an oil depot in southern Russia overnight after a drone was spotted flying overhead, the RIA news agency said on Tuesday.” Crucially, Tuapse is about 500 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian-held territory, which exhibits significant reach assuming the UAV was launched by the Ukrainians.
The fires which started at the facility at about 2:30am were extinguished after they spread to an area of some 200 square meters. “The oil tanks were not affected. There was no spill of oil products. No injuries,” a local official, Sergei Boyko, described.
Another drone crashed in the Moscow region on the same day, with Governor Andrei Vorobyov saying it was likely an operation to target civilian infrastructure.
“This happened near the village of Gubastovo, the target was probably a civilian infrastructure facility, it was not damaged. There are no casualties or destruction on the ground,” Vorobyov said on his Telegram channel, as translated by the Moscow Times.
“The FSB and other competent authorities are dealing with the situation, nothing threatens the safety of residents,” he added. The Moscow Times notes that unverified reports said the drone was a Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne manufactured by Ukrjet.
The Russian defense ministry in a statement made mention of another drone attack in southern Russia, close in time to the attack on the oil facility which it says was intercepted:
The attacks — in the Krasnodar and Adygea regions — had been “suppressed” and failed to inflict any damage, it said.
But it followed reports by Russian state news agencies of a fire at an oil depot in Krasnodar, around 240km south-east of the Crimean peninsula, after a drone was spotted flying overhead.
The Russian defense ministry stated that “The Kyiv regime attempted to use unmanned aerial vehicles to attack civilian infrastructure in the Krasnodar region and the Adygea Republic.” It claimed further, “The UAVs were neutralized by electronic warfare units.”
There may have additionally been a drone incident in the border area of the Belgorod region. The Daily Beast described it as a night of chaos for Russians:
The strikes were part of what local media described as a “mass drone attack” that appears to have intensified in the last 24 hours.
On Monday morning, residents of an apartment building in the Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine, were forced to evacuate in the middle of the night after one of four drones crashed into the building, according to Baza. Another drone landed on the roof of a supermarket and exploded, scorching the premises.
And possibly another attempted attack in St. Petersburg:
Hours later, St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport came to a standstill as authorities shut down the surrounding airspace, reportedly in response to an “unidentified flying object” spotted in the area.
Amid all the local reports coming out of Russia, there were in total possibly half-a-dozen to a dozen or more inbound drones which had been sent against various Russian cities overnight into Tuesday.
This comes after a past year which witnessed a number of sporadic drone and alleged sabotage attacks on sensitive Russian facilities, including military bases, as Ukraine and its backers grow more emboldened.
One December investigative report written by a US special forces veteran said the CIA was behind many of the covert sabotage operations happening with increasing frequency on Russian soil. President Putin has recently said he sees the conflict in Ukraine and West-backed proxy war there as a fight for the survival of the Russian people, alluding to it as an ‘existential threat’ in fresh comments.
The timing of these fresh, brazen attacks on Russians appears significant, given that just within the last few days there’s been some actual international momentum toward getting serious about an eventual brokered peace – this after China unveiled its 12-point plan for negotiated ceasefire on Friday. Will efforts at peace be sabotaged before a process can ever hope to get off the ground? If Russian soil keeps getting attacked, it’s very unlikely the two sides will even come close to seriously contemplating negotiations.
end
RUSSIA/WEST
Robert H to us:
Точки невозврата | Мнения | Известия
Today being Monday in Russia Medvedev warned that the West is risking nuclear war if they continue to supply Ukraine with weapons. This time the warning was published in an op-ed piece that appeared in the Izvestiya newspaper. This is far more meaningful than what he writes on his Telegram channel. Medvedev will eventually replace Putin is much more hardline that Putin. Putin is more of a historian and thus has had respect for Kiev for that was the birthplace (Kievan Rus ) of the Russians. And this point has been made to him by Krill as the leader of the Church. To Putin, nuking Kiev would be like Washington nuking London. Although today who knows with these DC fools. The Neocon crowd has no friends, only interests. In any the case, the Russian hardliners wanted to nuke Kiev long ago, to make the point to NATO and America. And it has been Putin who has held them back, playing for time as the Russian factories spit out modern weapons to be field deployed to protect the Russian people. It is why the latest defensive weapons have been deployed in plain view as a distinct warning of readiness to fight.
Medvedev has constantly been warning Putin, that this was NEVER a war with Ukraine, it has always been a proxy war with the USA and NATO. Putin has finally understood how badly he was fooled by the likes of Merkel and Macron over the Minsk Accords. And there is zero trust of anything said by the Ship of fools. The Ukrainian people have also been fools. Zelensky has sold their country as cannon fodder for a pocketful of silver and a luxury home waiting for him in Miami. Good luck to him in the enclave surrounded by Russians.
Medvedev is currently the deputy chairman of the powerful Security Council of Russia and today Putin can no longer be the historian but will be the leader he needs to be for his people.
Putin realizes his time to finish what has been started is shorter than longer and he will act, not waiting for succession. And this is not a good thing for the West. Because as much as crazed Neocons in DC believe Russia will not use Nukes, they are dead wrong. Many millions will perish for their hatred and insanity.
This march to a nuclear exchange is pointless and unnecessary. The problem is leadership and its vacuum. Sadly, all signs point a step too far.
Kremlin: West Pumping Weapons Into Ukraine Could Bring ‘Apocalypse’
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 12:30 PM
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has sounded off in a new Russian media op-ed, warning the west of the dire, worst-case scenario that awaits if it keeps escalating its support to Ukrainian forces.
His words published at the start of this week said the Western policy of arming Ukraine could lead to “apocalypse.” The former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council has never been shy about these types of warnings, frequently saying that nuclear war could result. The printed words also coincided with Janet Yellen’s Monday trip to Ukraine where she discussed $10 billion in new budgetary aid for Kiev, and announced the first $1.2 billion tranche.
He also stressed in the new piece that the West’s policy is bent on blocking the possibility of peace negotiations. “One could continue to pump weapons into the neo-fascist Kiev regime and block any opportunity to revive negotiations,” Medvedev wrote for the newspaper Izvestiya.
“Our enemies are doing just that, not wanting to understand that their goals obviously lead to a total fiasco. Lose for everyone. Collapse. Apocalypse,” he added.
“When the former life will have to be forgotten for centuries, until the smoky blockages cease to emit radiation.” Thus his words clearly have in mind a ‘nuclear apocalypse’.
His ominous words came within a week of President Putin declaring that Moscow has formally suspended participation in the New START nuclear treaty with the US. It is the last end of Cold War era treaty seeking to reduce, limit, and monitor the rival superpowers’ nuclear stockpiles.
Putin has also lately described the proxy war in Ukraine as constituting an existential threat to Russia, saying his people’s very survival is on the line, and stressing Moscow won’t back down until its military objectives are achieved.
But Russia’s declaration on the treaty is widely seen as temporary, with the US State Department days ago saying it’s ready to begin dialogue at any time, and conditioned on Russia’s readiness to deescalate.
END
Zelensky Hints At Withdrawing From Russian-Encircled Bakhmut: ‘Out Of Options’
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 01:50 PM
It was only in late January that Ukraine’s military General Staff emphasized that any potential forces withdrawal from the strategic city of Bakhmut in the east was “out of the question” as the situation was said to be under control.
But a month later, the narrative has dramatically shifted amid reports that the Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions around the clock, and as complaints from Ukrainian front lines scream of not enough ammo supplies to keep pace with the Russians. President Zelensky in fresh remarks on the situation has admitted that besieged Bakhmut is running out of options.
Within the past days he also said for the first time that he won’t seek to hold the city “at any cost” – strongly suggesting Ukraine has suffered a staggering loss in manpower.
“The situation is getting more and more difficult“…
“The enemy is gradually destroying everything which can be used to protect our positions,” Zelenskiy said in his address, stopping short of announcing a pullout.
There have been emerging repots of gun battles deep within the city itself, which is a new development, also as Russian forces have it nearly fully encircled, as the NY Times also confirms:
The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, on Tuesday described the situation around the city as “extremely tense” in a post on the Telegram messaging app.
And Reuters too for the first time presented a headline Tuesday which put the situation for the Ukrainian side in stark terms: “Russians tighten noose on Ukraine’s Bakhmut,” the news service reported.
On Monday Zelensky had described that “The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions for fortification and defense. Our soldiers defending the area around Bakhmut are true heroes.” Some soldiers cited in local reports are vowing to fight till the end, as military reports get more and more desperate.
Meanwhile the Biden administration is still resisting demands to give Kiev F-16 fighter jets… “for now” that is. John Kirby had described in a Monday interview that “At no time have the Russians ever achieved air superiority over Ukraine” – though by many military observer accounts, this is a highly dubious statement.
Russian forces are fast closing in on months-long efforts to have the sizeable city completely surrounded and cut off…
He emphasized that “we do want Ukraine to win” – speaking of the United States, however, he qualified that Ukraine’s leaders will determine what ‘winning’ looks like, which could be seen as a sign of creeping openness to negotiated settlement.
end
This is really well presented:
special thanks to Robert h for sending this to us;
Icarus defies hubris: Are Biden’s ‘Wings’ melting? | Al Mayadeen English
The reality is America cannot win in Ukraine even if American or NATO boots go in. All that can happen is escalation that leads to nuclear war that no one will win.
As for a united China/ Russia block that has already happened and the US has lost the ability to keep these nations from mutual defense with each having the others back. So what has America done? It does what it always has done by going the clandestine route about securing leadership that is friendly or controlled to serve. One such example is Lula in Brazil who just recently voted to condemn Russia at the UN. The reality is that he did not give a heads up to either China or Russia. This comes from a BRIC nation who is founding member. No doubt there will be measured consequences.
The Biden Show owns the fiasco that Ukraine is becoming and how far the foolishness of decision making goes to create more damage to foreign policy is remarkable. And the damage to the USD as a form of settlement currency maybe an even bigger disaster.
US citizen killed in spiraling West Bank violence. It started when two young Israeli brothers were shot in their car by a Palestinian gunman.
Settlers, taking revenge torched many Palestinian homes in the West bank.
(zerohedge)
US Citizen Killed In Spiraling West Bank Violence
MONDAY, FEB 27, 2023 – 08:00 PM
There’s been spiraling violence since Sunday across multiple West Bank towns and villages. Israeli settlers went on a rampage in the Nablus area – burning cars, businesses and attacking random Palestinians – after a Sunday night shooting wherein a Palestinian gunman killed two young Israelis in the Huwara area.
Palestinian officials have condemned what they called a “pogrom” which saw some 400 Palestinians injured. This resulted in more shootings by Palestinian gunmen on Monday, including of a motorist identified by US officials as an American.
According to Al Jazeera, “Palestinian media reported stabbings and attacks with metal rods and rocks. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said one person was in hospital after being beaten in the head with a rock, causing fractures to the skull. Another person suffered a beating with a metal rod to the face.”
There’s since been a series of tit-for-tat revenge attacks from either side, with the latest resulting in the death of an American citizen in his 20s.
He was shot Monday near the city of Jericho by Palestinian gunmen, the US State Department confirmed:
According to Reuters, the killing was part of several drive-by shootings conducted by Palestinians along a highway amid escalating violence this week.
Two Israeli settlers were shot dead on Sunday, reportedly by a Palestinian gunman, prompting other settlers to storm through part of the West Bank.
The State Department later condemned the killings and “the wide-scale, indiscriminate violence by settlers against Palestinian civilians.”
US ambassador to Israel Tom Nides issued a statement saying, “Sadly, I can confirm that a U.S. citizen was killed in one of the terror attacks in the West Bank tonight. I pray for his family.”
Israeli reports describe that gunmen drove up beside the man’s car and shot at him while also opening fire on other cars, and subsequently the gunmen abandoned their car, setting it on fire. No others in nearby vehicles were injured.
(Natural News) It looks like the more we learn about the China-produced COVID-19 virus, the worse the news gets.
According to the largest study of its kind, contracting COVID-19 may increase the risk of developing an autoimmune disease by 43 percent in the months following the infection, Live Science reported this week.
According to Anuradhaa Subramanian, a research fellow in health informatics at the University of Birmingham, who was not involved in the study, “The impact of this study is huge — it’s the strongest evidence so far answering this question of COVID-19 and autoimmune disease risk.”
Previous research has linked COVID-19 to an increased risk of autoimmune disease, a condition in which the immune system mistakenly attacks healthy parts of the body. However, these studies were limited to small samples and focused on specific conditions, such as autoimmune hemolytic anemia, which affects red blood cells, and Guillain-Barre syndrome, which affects nerve cells, the outlet reported.
But this new study analyzed the medical records of 640,000 people in Germany who tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020 and 1.5 million people who did not contract the virus to investigate the potential impact on the development of 30 autoimmune conditions. This is a much larger study than previous research, which focused on smaller cohorts and fewer conditions.
In order to explore the potential impact of COVID-19 on the risk of developing autoimmune conditions, researchers analyzed the health records of 640,000 individuals in Germany who had contracted the virus in 2020, as well as 1.5 million individuals who did not catch the coronavirus that year. The study examined the rate at which newly diagnosed autoimmune diseases occurred in the three to 15 months following a positive COVID-19 test, comparing these rates to those of the group that did not contract the virus. Approximately 10 percent of participants in each group had preexisting autoimmune diseases.
The study found that among those without a history of autoimmune disease, more than 15 percent of those who contracted COVID-19 developed an autoimmune condition for the first time during the follow-up period, compared to roughly 11 percent of those who did not contract the virus. In other words, the COVID-19 group had a 43 percent higher risk of developing an autoimmune disease compared to the control group. Among those with preexisting autoimmune conditions, the group that contracted COVID-19 had a 23 percent higher risk of developing an additional autoimmune disease during the follow-up period.
The research found that COVID-19 was most strongly associated with an increased risk of vasculitis, a condition that involves inflammation of the blood vessels. The group that had previously contracted the virus had a 63 percent higher rate of a specific type of vasculitis called arteritis temporalis compared to the uninfected group. Prior COVID-19 infection was also strongly linked to autoimmune-driven issues with the thyroid, psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis, a condition that causes joint swelling, the report continued.
“These findings just cannot be ignored,” Subramanian noted, according to Live Science. “We need to pursue research into how COVID-19 is potentially triggering autoimmunity because many people are continuing to suffer from the effects of COVID-19.”
According to the researchers, there are various hypotheses as to how COVID-19 could initiate autoimmunity, and it is possible that different mechanisms may impact different organ systems.
“Understanding how COVID-19 impacts autoimmune disease risk will help in executing the prevention measures and early treatments to prevent associated morbidity and mortality,” said Jagadeesh Bayry, a professor of biological sciences and engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, who also wasn’t involved in the study.
Noted Live Science: “Other viral infections, including influenza, have been linked to autoimmune disease, so more research is needed to establish what effects are specific to COVID-19,” Bayry said.
END
CDC Spreads False Information About COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Monitoring
A top U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official gave false information about COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring to the agency’s vaccine advisory panel, and a spokesperson for the agency refused to correct the misinformation.
Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, director of the CDC’s Immunization Safety Office, presented on COVID-19 vaccine safety to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on Feb. 24.
Shimabukuro went over updates to the safety signal for ischemic stroke following Pfizer bivalent booster vaccination that CDC officials detected in one of the agency’s monitoring systems.
After sharing the updates, Shimabukuro made the false statement.
“No safety signals were detected for ischemic stroke for the primary series or monovalent boosters for Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines in U.S. and global monitoring,” Shimabukuro said.
That’s not true. The CDC identified ischemic stroke as a safety signal following Moderna and Pfizer vaccination after analyzing reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a different system, which the agency co-manages.
Asked for comment, Shimabukuro did not respond. But a CDC spokesperson doubled down on the false claim.
“The statement from Dr. Shimabukuro’s slides is correct. There have not been any safety signals detected at this time in the U.S. for ischemic stroke for the primary series or monovalent boosters,” Katherina Grusich, the spokesperson, told The Epoch Times in an email.
Barbara Loe Fisher, president and co-founder of the National Vaccine Information Center, said what unfolded was concerning.
“Those of us who worked with Congress to secure vaccine safety informing, recording, and reporting provisions in the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act—of which VAERS was one—are deeply concerned that federal health officials are deliberately ignoring signals in VAERS and that mRNA COVID shots are causing ischemic strokes and other potentially fatal complications,” Fisher told The Epoch Times in an email.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines utilize messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology.
Bivalent boosters from both companies were authorized in the fall of 2022, but the primary series are still composed of the original vaccines, sometimes referred to as monovalent shots.
Shimabukuro’s statement had an impact. After his presentation, while the slide with the false information was on the screen, a member of the panel highlighted it.
“I think it’s important to note [the statement] for the public,” Veronica McNally, president and CEO of the Fanny Strong Foundation, said, before reading it in full.
Another False Statement
Dr. Helen Keipp Talbot, a member of the advisory panel, also offered false information about the safety signal.
but do not tell anyone this, ssshhh, official figures show that those classed as “fully,” “triple,” or “quadruple” vaccinated accounted for 9 in 10 of all COVID deaths in England over the past 2 years
Official figures show that those classified as “fully,” “triple,” or “quadruple” vaccinated accounted for nine in ten of all COVID-19 deaths in England over the past two years.
Listen to what they did to her after her first heart attack after the mRNA gene injection shot, listen to her describe this horrible treatment; they denied her medical care, denied heart care
Ohio Community Fights Back Against Globalists: “We’re Dying Slowly – They’re Poisoning us Slowly”
February 27, 2023 4:04 pm
After national celebrities have stopped off in East Palestine, Ohio, to get their photo-ops with the local residents who continue to suffer from the effects of blowing up derailed train cars carrying toxic chemicals, local residents are starting to form their own group, knowing that the news cycle will soon end with little to no help coming from the U.S. Government or the corporations that caused this disaster. Jami Cozza, a lifelong East Palestinian resident, has now teamed up with River Valley Organizing, and held their own “town hall” meeting with local residents. River Valley Organizing has already been in the community for years trying to fight back against corporate tyranny. Cozza has a message for her fellow residents, and it is a message that ALL of us in the United States need to hear right now if we are going to be successful in building community support to fight back against the Globalists, and that message is that we need to put aside our political differences and unite to fight back against the corporations we are all at war with today.
Over 96 Canadian Children Ages 2-19 have Died Suddenly or Unexpectedly in the Past 3 Months
February 27, 2023 5:18 pm
In the August 2022 James Gill paper titled “Autopsy Histopathologic Cardiac Findings in 2 adolescents following the second COVID-19 vaccine dose”, two teenage boys died in their sleep within the first week after receiving the 2nd Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose. Both boys were pronounced dead at home. Sudden deaths of Canadian children have skyrocketed in recent months. I have tracked these deaths since November 2022, when healthy Canadian children began to die from influenza, strep, myocarditis, blood clots, strokes, sudden deaths while playing sports and sudden deaths in their sleep! Due to the aggressive, unscientific and unethical rollout of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in Canadian children in 2021 and 2022, parents must be on guard for COVID-19 mRNA vaccine toxicity, which has been implicated in severe damage to the immune system, heart, brain, kidneys, liver, endocrine system, reproductive organs, as well as autoimmune diseases and cancers.
If you haven’t heard Pfizer is getting its latest vaccine ready – this time it’s for respiratory syncytial virus or RSV.
The new vaccine has been flagged by the Food and Drug Administration as posing a potential risk for Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurological condition. According to FDA documents two people in their 60s, who participated in Pfizer’s Phase 3 clinical trials were diagnosed with the illness. One person completely resolved after 3 months and the other person continues to show improvement.
There were also slightly more deaths in the vaccinated group, 52 vs 49 in the placebo recipients. According to Pfizer study investigators, none of the deaths were considered related to vaccination – the FDA agrees with the assessment.
Now this vaccine is on the same expedited timeline as the COVID-19 vaccine. Meaning the timeline for development from as many as eight years has been cut down to two years. Pfizer says it agreed to conduct a safety study (to further asses the risks of Guillain-Barre syndrome) “should the vaccine be approved.” This is exactly what happens when we try to fast-track these vaccines. Shouldn’t the vaccine be safety tested before FDA approval?
The Swine Flu Vaccine was pulled in 1976 after showing a 1 in 100,000 risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome.
GlaxoSmithKline, another protein-based RSV candidate, halted three maternal RSV vaccine clinical trials last year. Its decision was based on safety signals it observed during the trials. The adult version is pending the same fast-track approval as Pfizer.
For now, there are no approved RSV vaccines. We’ve tried before and they were initially ‘well tolerated’ but ultimately failed. The first RSV vaccine in the 1960’s ended up causing vaccine-associated enhanced disease. The vaccine, given to infants and toddlers, caused more serious RSV symptoms when they caught the virus – instead of protecting them.
The new Pfizer vaccine is protein-based and not mRNA. It’s a bivalent vaccine that contains proteins to stimulate immune protection against two types of RSV – RSA A and B.
Pfizer wants to focus their RSV vaccine on pregnant women. The idea is to vaccinate pregnant women and immunize their babies in the womb. They call this maternal immunization.
Trial data released in November shows almost 82% efficacy in protecting against severe disease in babies. Like most Pfizer products, immunity quickly decreases. The 82% efficacy only lasts for 90 days. According to Pfizer:
“If approved, RSVpreF (the vaccine’s internal name) would help protect infants at their first breath from the devastating effects of this infectious disease, which though well-known, has been particularly evident throughout this RSV season.”
The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) will meet today to discuss the approval of the vaccine. If approved it is expected to be available this summer. Would you get it?
Vermont Girls’ Basketball Team Reaches Limit, Refuses to Play Game against Transgender PlayerThe Mid Vermont Christian School (MVCS) girls’ basketball team has withdrawn from the state tournament after their opposing team includes a biologically male transgender player. MVCS refused to play in the Vermont Division IV state tournament because the team doesn’t want to play against male student-athletes. The No. 12 seed Eagles were scheduled to play a first-round game at No. …READ MORE
Nancy Pelosi Gets Heckled in San FranciscoFormer House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) didn’t get the welcome home she was hoping for when a heckler dropped the hammer on the Democrat congresswoman in a San Francisco restaurant.READ MORE
Brazilian President And WEF Member Lula Da Silva Pressures Population Into Total COVID Vaccination
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 01:10 PM
After three years of covid disinformation from governments and globalist institutions, western countries are finally starting to realize that the pandemic event was not much of a pandemic and that the majority of restrictions and mandates involved in the response had nothing to do with public health or safety. The establishment failed to implement vaccine mandates and passports in the west, but that does not mean they have given up on the agenda in other parts of the world. The nation of Brazil has become a prime target for further medical authoritarianism despite the fading mandate efforts in the US and Europe.
While data disproving the majority of covid claims is becoming widespread in North America, there is a fight brewing in South America to dismiss or censor scientific evidence and enforce vaccine requirements anyway. To recap, the “conspiracy theorists” were right about everything.
Don’t show any of this evidence to Lula Da Silva, the highly controversial convicted criminal president of Brazil – He says it’s all “denialism” designed to convince the Brazilian populace to remain unprotected from covid. Silva has made forced vaccination a centerpiece of his presidency, and his latest efforts smell of globalist policy influence.
Silva has launched a new covid vaccination initiative in 2023, three years after the covid outbreak and more than a year after most other nations gave up trying to pressure the citizenry to comply. The oddity of it is rooted in Brazil’s existing vaccine rate – According to “official data” Brazil already has an 80% vaccinated population. If this is true, why is Silva still trying to force the other 20% into compliance? In pure public health terms, Brazil has already achieved herd immunity (if the vaccines were actually effective as claimed). It would appear another motive is afoot.
Lula is a long time favorite associate of the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab. Lula has attended the WEF for at least 20 years, and the think-tank gave him a “Global Statesman Award” in 2010. The WEF has stated on numerous occasions that “vaccinating the entire world” using mRNA covid products is their goal.
The WEF member was convicted on corruption charges in 2018 and was supposed to serve a 12 year sentence. However, magically, the Brazilian Supreme Court reversed the prison sentence less than two years later. A coordinated corporate media campaign designed to clean up Silva’s image was then enacted so that he could run for president yet again. Silva claimed victory in the 2022 elections, though at least half of Brazil argues that the elections were rigged.
Ever since, Silva has made it his mission to vaccinate the whole of Brazil, using such measures as restricting access to welfare benefits for anyone that does not stay up-to-date on their boosters and parents that refuse to vaccinate their children.
Silva’s go-to narrative is to shame Brazilians into submitting to the vaccine by suggesting they are putting their children and relatives at risk. He claims that the vaccine is the “only guarantee of life.” All the scientific evidence says otherwise. With covid’s official median Infection Fatality Rate at 0.23% (even less when taking false positive deaths into account) covid is a non-issue for 99.8% of the public. But if the goal is to test how far the population can be pushed to accept globalist covid rules, then evidence will not mean much.
END
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USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3575 DOWN .0001 (CDN DOLLAR UP 1 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.66%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 157.57 PTS OR 0.79%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.52% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 157.57 PTS OR 0.79%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.57 PTS OR 0.66%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.52%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 21.60 PTS OR 0.08%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1808.40
silver:$20.53
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 104.63 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.9334)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9524
TURKISH LIRA: 18.88 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.493…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.934% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.937 UP 2 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.791 DOWN 1 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.55 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 57.95 PTS OR 0.73%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 1.50 POINTS OR 0.01 %
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 19.32 PTS OR 0.26%
Spain IBEX UP 84.20 POINTS OR 0.90%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 56.32PTS OR 0.20%
WTI Oil price 77,43 12: EST
Brent Oil: 83.67 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 74.97/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 37/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.64
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.849 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0582 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2035 DOWN .0028 or 28 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.870% UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.18 DOWN 0.147////YEN UP 15 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3641 UP .0065 (CDN dollar, DOWN 65 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.91
Brent OIL: 83.22
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 3.904%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 3.911%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.7909%
USA dollar index: 104.91 UP 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.89
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 74.97 DOWN 0 AND 37/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 232.39 PTS OR 0.71%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 15.67 PTS OR 0.13%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.70 DOWN .26 PTS (1.19)%
GLD: $169,78 UP 0.77 OR 0.46%
SLV/ $19.22 UP 0,22 OR 1.53%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Formidable Feb Data F**ks Bond Bulls As ‘Fed Pivot’ Puke Punks Stocks, Commodities
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 04:01 PM
2023 so far – a tale of two narratives…from ‘soft’ landing to ‘no’ landing…
February’s macro theme was the death of The Fed Pivot narrative as expectations for an H2 2023 rate-cut collapsed and the terminal rate outlook priced in rose significantly…
February’s micro theme was the ongoing intraday dominance of 0DTE trading with SPX 0DTE options making up over 50% of volume…
For example, there are 7 major options lines with Open Interest over 10k that expire in the next few days…
Source: Bloomberg
As Goldman’s traders noted, these are significant positions for a relatively quiet week with Q1 earnings mostly wrapped and no major economic data points. This is becoming the new normal.
And the impact of 0DTE is clearly seen here in the poster-child stock…
Source: Bloomberg
As Charlie McElligott explains, 0DTE options flows leading to an “intraday Vol only” dynamic (via market-maker Gamma hedging requirements creating “accelerant flows”… which then later see a ubiquitous “mean-reversion” from monetization of both bot 0DTE Calls and Puts), which leaves “close-to-close” volatility bleeding lower as any ‘intraday’ event is washed away. The latter of which helps explain why Vix and the market have decoupled in recent days…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, February was the unwind of January’s cross-asset-class trends… with Equities being the last to wake up to reality…
Source: Bloomberg
After an extremely strong January, February flopped with The Dow leading the swing lower, but all the US majors red in the month (Nasdaq briefly tagged green today for the month but could not hold it)…
This was The Dow’s worst month since Sept 2022.
Today ended ugly with some dramatic selling pressure with everything closing red on the day…
…but once again it was all about the 0DTE trend-runners with early action offsetting before 0DTE traders bid puts aggressively into the market rally but as 0DTE call-owners covered, stocks rolled over and accelerated lower into a smallish MoC sell wave.
That late push drove the S&P down to test the 50DMA once again…
That has left The Dow in the red YTD, while Nasdaq 100 remains up over 10% YTD…
Energy stocks were the month’s biggest laggard while Tech outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
After January’s biggest monthly short squeeze since Jan 2021, February saw ‘most shorted’ stocks actually sink
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were a bloodbath in February with yields at the short-end up a stunning 60bps (while the long-end outperformed, 30Y yields were still up 30bps on the month)…
Source: Bloomberg
While the 10Y Yield pushed up towards (but did not tag) the 4.00% level, the 2Y yield broke back above its November highs to its highest yield since July 2007…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) has never closed in a more inverted manner than now…
Source: Bloomberg
Also, we note that inflation expectations (1Y Inflation Swap) soared back to life in February…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar soared back into the green for the year in February, after four straight monthly declines…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin & Ethereum managed modest gains in February while Ripple and Solana ended the month lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities, broadly speaking, ended the month of February lower with Silver lagging and Energy the least bad (after NatGas roared back from its mid-month carnage)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the month in the red for the year, despite a decent surge higher today – but overall Feb saw 3 or 4 major selling waves…
Silver’s relative clubbing (down to a $20 handle today) has lifted the Gold/Silver ratio back above 85 to its highest since early Oct 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices remain rangebound with WTI trading in a $73-83 range for the last 3 months…
US NatGas prices have collapsed since early December but while the leg higher in the bottom right of this chart doesn’t look like much, it pushed Henry Hub back top almost unchanged on the month (after briefly tagging a $1 handle)…
Finally, amid all the chaos of the month, financial conditions have tightened notably (now back to unchanged YTD), slowly but surely catching back up to monetary policy’s tightness…
Source: Bloomberg
And as unimpressed as Powell pretended to be about this decoupling, the volume of FedSpeak uttered by his pals would argue very different.
Nomura’s Charlie McElligott issued a warning though this morning for the way forward:
The onus is now on even bigger upside surprise data to substantiate ongoing FCI tightening and pricing of higher terminal rates from here….and which increasingly looks like a tall order, now that Street economists are taking-up their growth and inflation estimates again in unison, AS WELL AS the fact that we actually HAVE seen financial conditions adjust appropriately MUCH “tighter” over the past month as a data “headwind”.
Said another way, the bar is getting very high for sustained economic data “beats” which has been the catalyst for the Rates / terminal repricing in recent weeks, which then knocked-on into the FCI tightening which had hit risk-assets over the past two weeks…which likely means that “downside surprises” should be expected soon, as is the natural “mean-reversion” in economic surprise indices (“upside surprise” vs low expectations, which causes a upwards revisions to conensus estimates, which then increases frequency of “downside surprises”—the cycle continues).
And if “sustained better data = higher terminal repricing” is still part of your current Equities “bear-case” from here (after you already squeezed most of the blood from that stone over the past two weeks), you better be careful…
Sure, another big NFP could very well restart the “higher terminal / FCI tightening” spiral yet-again for markets in a week and a half… but for now, we are again “priced-to-perfection” across nearly all-assets following the multi-week positioning- and market narrative- reset.
For now, bonds are at their cheapest to stocks since the very peak in 2007…
There Is An Alternative after all
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
USA DATA
As expected, home prices continue their downfall for the 6th straight month in December
(zerohedge)
US Home Prices Tumbled For 6th Straight Month In December
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 09:07 AM
National home prices fell for 6 straight months up to December (the latest data from S&P Global’s Case-Shiller index), dropping more than expected (-0.51% MoM vs -0.40% MoM exp). This slowed the annual growth of prices to the weakest since July 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
The headline national home price index is at it lowest since March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
“The prospect of stable, or higher, interest rates means that mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may also constrain potential buyers,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
“Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
Asking rents are now tracking home prices lower…
Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities surveyed (although every city is seeing price growth slow)…
…but San Francisco prices are plummeting the fastest with prices down -4.2% YoY, the biggest annual drop since March 2012 to the lowest since July 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that these prices are extremely lagged (December) which is where mortgage rates began to flatten before turning up dramatically in February…
Source: Bloomberg
Do not expect any pause in home prices yet… and besides, that is not what The Fed wants.
END
conference board survey tumbles in February. This is a confidence measure
(zerohedge)
Conference Board Tumbles In Feb As ‘Hope’ Slumps
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 10:09 AM
Analysts expected The Conference Board’s Confidence survey to improve marginally in February with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print disappointed significantly (102.9 vs 108.5 exp), hurt by a big drop in Expectations (from a revised 76.0 to 69.7) while the Present Situation continued to rise (from 151.1 to 152.8). The Present Situation is at the highest since April 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s gauge of one-year inflation expectations tumbled (after a rebound in January) to its lowest since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, buying plans are tumbling…
The Conference Board’s sentiment remains notably decoupled from UMich’s sentiment measure…
Finally, the Conference Board’s measure of labor market tightness improved for the third month in a row (more jobs plentiful vs hard to get) in February…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s not what Mr. Powell wants to see.
END
Soft data reports continue to show contraction on the economy:
(zerohedge)
“Feckless Leadership… Is Killing Us” – ‘Soft Data’ Survey Data Continues To Disappoint
TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 10:47 AM
After Philly’s Fed business outlook survey collapsed, the string of regional ‘soft data’ has continued to weaken.
Chicago’s PMI disappointed, printing 43.6 (weakest since Nov), down from 44.3, and below expectations of a rebound to 45.5 with employment falling at a faster rate, new orders contracting, production’s slowdown accelerating, and prices still rising.
This is the 6th straight month of contraction (sub-50) for the Chicago PMI.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey notably missed expectations, tumbling from -11 to -16 (vs expectations of a rebound to -5) with shipments tumbling, new orders deep in contraction, number of employees and wages weakened, and capacity utilization weakening.
Additionally prices paid were flat while prices received slowed, signaling margin pressures and/or an inability pass on costs to consumers. We do note that Richmond Fed Services did pick up in Feb but remains in contraction for the 12th straight month.
Finally, The Dallas Fed Services Sector outlook improved modestly but remains in contraction for a 10th straight month.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in January, though pessimism waned. The general business activity index posted an eighth consecutive negative reading but moved up six points to -15.0. The company outlook index also improved from -11.0 to -8.3, while the outlook uncertainty index remained elevated at 20.0, above its series average of 13.4.
Price and wage pressures remained elevated, though there was some moderation in input price growth.
“The constant speculation of a recession is becoming a psychologically self-fulfilling prophecy.”
“The labor market is still very tight.”
“With the rising interest rates, cost of goods and inflation, our business has experienced a fall in revenue.”
“Interest rates and inflation are killing us.”
“The feckless leadership from the White House, the damaging energy policies and the electrical vehicle push are causing unneeded chaos in all parts of the economy. What will happen to the automobile manufacturers that have totally remade themselves if electrical vehicles are proven not to be the answer? And what about all the battery-making facilities that won’t be needed?”
“[We are] not really seeing any business activity pickup.”
“All our costs have increased significantly. Yet, selling prices have dropped significantly.”
“Retail activity is slowing at an accelerated pace.”
Mission Accomplished, Mr. Powell?
END
Chicago PMI sinks further into recession territory
(Market Watch)
Chicago business activity gauge sinks further into contractionary territory in February
Feb. 28, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Index falls to 43.6 versus forecast of 45
The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 43.6 in February from 44.3 in the prior month, according to a report from ISM-Chicago and MNI.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected a 45 reading.
This is the sixth straight reading below the 50 threshold that indicates contraction territory.
The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national ISM manufacturing data for February is released Wednesday.
Economists expect the ISM factory index to inch up to 47.6% from 47.4%. It would be the fourth straight month in contraction territory.
USA trade deficit rises again to a 3 month high of $91.5 billion
(Market watch)
U.S. trade deficit in goods climbs to three-month high of $91.5 billion
Feb. 28, 2023 at 8:43 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Imports of autos, food and consumer goods rise
The numbers: The trade deficit in goods rose 2% in January to a three-month high of $91.5 billion, reflecting high inflation as well as a steady U.S. appetite for new cars, food and consumer goods.
The trade gap in goods increased from $89.7 billion in the final month of 2022, the Census Bureau said.
Large deficits subtract from gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy. The trade gap in goods has tapered off since hitting a record $125.3 billion last spring, but it’s still historically high.
Read: The U.S. is a ‘build nothing’ country, says economist, earning an endorsement from Elon Musk
An advanced estimate of wholesale inventories, meanwhile, showed a 0.4% decrease in January. Retail inventories rose 0.3% in the month, according to an early estimate.
Big picture: The trade deficit has set fresh records for three years in a row, but it’s on track to narrow for the first time since 2019.
Since the pandemic, the U.S. has recovered faster than the the economies of most other countries. That’s fueled a surge in spending on imports and a slower though still- strong increase in exports.
By and large, the trade gap usually doesn’t reveal much about the health of the economy in the short run. The U.S. has endured high deficits through expansions and recessions and they aren’t going away anytime soon.
Key details: Imports of goods rose 3.4% to $265.3 billion in January. Auto imports posted an unusually strong increase. Food imports also rose, largely due to higher prices.
Exports climbed 4.2% to $173.8 billion. The U.S. exported more food, autos and consumer goods, mirroring the changes in imports.
Looking ahead: “Inventory accumulation and the trade deficit are on course to be negative for real GDP growth in the first quarter after being big supports in the fourth quarter of last year,” said chief economist Bill Adams of Comerica. “But the economy’s trend looks to be holding up and probably improving in early 2023.”
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
This will cause the USA inflation to subside. Rents slide across all cities with a crush of new supply. Renters in the uSA are having a tough time due to high cost of housing.
(zerohedge)
Apartment Rents Slide Across All US Cities Amid “Crush” Of New Supply
POWELL: POINT AT WHICH RENT INFLATION SLOWS IS STILL FAR AWAY
POWELL: AT SOME POINT YOU’LL SEE RENTS COMING DOWN
Fast forward to today when not just Powell but everyone at the Fed should be fully aware that rents have been sliding for almost half a year now, because as Powell’s favorite WSJ mouthpiece himself wrote today, “apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January, a trend that is poised to continue as the biggest delivery of new apartments in nearly four decades is slated for this year” while tenants are now maxed out on how much income they can devote to rent.
Citing our favorite real-time rental market indicator, listing website Apartment List whose data we used in Sept 2021 when we wrote “What Rental Hyperinflation Looks Like: “Soaring Prices. Competition. Desperation” to explain why rents are far higher than the CPI reports and why the prevailing groupthink consensus of “transitory inflation” was dead wrong, WSJ reported Nick Timiraos writes that renters with new leases in January paid a median rent that was 3.5% lower than they would have paid last August…
… “the first time in five years that rent fell every month over a six-month period, according to the same estimates.”
Realizing what our readers – if not the Fed – knew long ago, namely that to get an accurate picture of rents and inflection points in the apartment rental market one needs to look not at the CPI’s Owner Equivalent Rent data which is delayed by approximately 12 months, Timiraos says that four other market measures by housing-data companies also show that new-lease rents either fell or remained flat in January compared with the previous month, extending a streak of monthly rent declines that began at the end of the summer.
This can be seen in this Goldman chart which uses primary data from CoStar which also shows that rents peaked in August and have been declining since, even if they clearly have a long way to go to catch down to their pre-covid levels.
The softening rental market follows an unprecedented run for the apartment and home-rental industry put into motion by the pandemic. Pent-up demand for housing exploded in the months after the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines in late 2020 and a surge in people searching for apartments lifted rents 25% over two years.
But now that covid stimmies have long run out, the recent rental declines are a sign that many tenants have maxed out on how much of their income they can devote to rent, while the specter of layoffs has created new concerns for some. Other would-be renters who are living with family or friends, remain sidelined by prices that are still far too high for their budgets.
And while some seasonal stalling in rents is normal, Timiraos cautions that according to projections from CoStar, the market faces a significant headwind in the form of a supply “crush”, namely the biggest delivery of new supply since 1986: nearly half a million new apartments are coming on line this year as developers seek to cash in on the high rents that tenants have been paying. Indeed, as discussed over the weekend, countless renters facing the most unaffordable housing market in generations…
… are unable to to buy a home because of higher mortgage rates and steep prices, so rentals have been in high demand.
Rents, of course, are not alone, and they have retreated alongside sharper recent declines in home-sale prices, which fell 3.6% between June and November, according to the Case-Shiller. Soaring mortgage rates and softening buyer demand have been weighing on home prices, despite a period this year when lower rates sparked an uptick in buyer interest. Ironically, the more unaffordable home purchases have become, the greater the demand for rentals… at least until a tipping point of sorts was hit several months ago.
The good news is that with a long delay, the coming tidal wave of new apartment supply – especially in places where housing inventory remains unusually low to the benefit of home sellers – will give renters more choices, making it not only more difficult for landlords to raise rents at rates seen early in 2022, when rent growth was at a near-20% annual clip, but forcing many to cut rents outright.
Indeed, the supply of new rentals is already having an impact: according to software company RealPage, the share of apartment tenants who renewed leases declined in January to 52%, the lowest level for that month since 2018; the data suggests some tenants are finding better deals at other buildings.
“Renters facing lease renewals suddenly have a lot more options,” RealPage economist Jay Parsons said in a report. Landlords are likely to start dropping their renewal rents to prevent tenants from leaving, he added.
Ironically, asking rents are sliding just as the much-delayed shelter cost component of the CPI basket soared by oar 7.9% in January compared with the same month a year earlier. Of course, as we long ago noted, the impact of rent declines tends to lead what is expressed in the CPI by as much as 12 months. Furthermore, as we discussed recently, many renters are in the middle of leases signed before recent price drops. That is one reason why the rising cost of rent reflected in the CPI shows annual price growth that is still higher than market measures, which track new leases.
And while rent has been declining sequentially for five months now, rent growth still remains positive on an annual basis according to most data sources; even so the pace of growth is rapidly slowing and if it continues to decelerate beyond winter, it would help pull down services inflation figures, of which housing costs are the biggest component. New-lease rent growth ranged from about 2% to 6% in January compared with one year prior, according to most market reports, down significantly from the pace of growth in early 2022. As more leases expire, analysts expect CPI figures to better reflect the lower costs of new leases.
Where are the rental drops the biggest?
Citing the latest Apartment List data, Timiraos notes that in the months since August, new-lease rents have fallen most sharply in some of the nation’s biggest metro areas. Seattle rents have tumbled 8%, while rents in Boston and Las Vegas have fallen 6%, according to Apartment List.
The Seattle metro area’s median rent was $1,706 in January, while in the Boston metro area it was $1,879. Other measurements of rent with different sample criteria show much higher rent prices, but similar long-term trends in price movement.
Notably, none of the 52-largest metro areas tracked by Apartment List experienced positive rent growth over the period. Indianapolis and Miami were the best performing cities, with rental declines of just 1%. It was all downhill from there.
Rents for single-family homes, which had also increased sharply before last summer, now are stalling, too. The average national asking rent for a house rose just one buck in January, compared with December, to reach $2,070, according to data provider Yardi Matrix.
Assuring further rental declines, apartment vacancies have been rising since last fall, due to weaker demand from potential renters. Fewer people are flocking to Zoomtowns—communities that experienced a surge in population from an influx of remote workers—such as Boise, Idaho, or Phoenix compared with earlier in the pandemic, a recent report from listing website Zumper notes.
Of course, there is a lot of room to fall: even after a 3.5% decline in new-lease rents since last summer, rents in many cities remain 20% or 30% higher than they were when the pandemic began. Rents in the Tucson, Ariz., Tampa, Fla., and Miami metro areas are all 35% higher than in March 2020, according to an Apartment List report.
“Renters are still having a tougher time than they were even a year-and-a-half ago,” said Chris Salviati, economist at Apartment List. However, if the Fed keeps rising rates and ignoring the general economic malaise – which the Biden admin is doing everything to cover up – rents should be in freefall in just a few months, but don’t expect the Fed to respond: as usual it takes the US central bank about 6 to 9 months to realize it is always behind the curve.
END
More updates on the East Palestine disaster:
Buttigieg’s Derailment: NTSB Exposes East Palestine Claim As “Misinformation”
U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has been repeatedly criticized for transportation problems, including the holiday pile up at our ports that slowed delivery of goods in December. He was also criticized for his response to the recent airport shutdown. I have not joined in that criticism because I am not sure that he has direct responsibility for some of these problems. However, Buttigieg recently raised a legal claim to blame the Trump Administration for the train disaster in East Palestine, Ohio. The claim was not only manifestly false but Buttigieg knew or should have known it was false.
The implications are deeply disturbing.
When confronted with a disaster, Buttigieg not only made a false claim but attempted to weaponize a tragedy against political opponents.
That is a serious problem for a public figure and worthy of condemnation.
Buttigieg was criticized for his delay in responding publicly to the Ohio disaster and his even longer delay in going to the site. Again, while a politically tone deaf, I was not one of those critics. It is possible to respond to a tragedy without being at the scene. However, the Administration (including the President) were clearly losing ground in its response with many noting the absence of both the President and Transportation Secretary in Ohio after the wreck.
When Buttigieg finally made it to the scene, significant time had passed and many of the details were known publicly on the cause. Buttigieg presumably had even earlier and better information, including the statements of the train crew on the cause.
The crew of the freight train received a warning about an overheating wheel bearing and tried to slow the train in response. According to the report of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the wheel bearing was heating up for several miles before reaching 253 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the air temperature. The train engineer employed the brakes and the automatic braking system also activated, but fifty of the train’s 149 cars derailed with 11 carrying toxic chemicals.
Given his delay in visiting the site, Buttigieg had more information on the cause of the derailment than just the initial accounts. However, he falsely claimed that “we’re constrained by law on some areas of rail regulation,” and cited “the braking rule withdrawn by the Trump administration in 2018 because of a law passed by Congress in 2015.”
This false claim was picked up by various pundits and politicians, including figures like Joy Behar on the The View. That included Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) who went to the Senate floor and declared that, in 2017,
“the Trump administration repealed requirements for an electronic braking system because, according to them, the safety benefits were not worth the cost. I think the people of East Palestine now know that analysis was wrong and that they’re suffering the consequences of rail companies putting profits over people.”
Yet, politicians and pundits often weaponize tragedy.
A Secretary of Transportation is needed to establish the facts and assure the public that safety, not politics, is driving decisionmaking during a crisis. Buttigieg clearly failed that test in spectacular fashion.
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Chair Jennifer Homendy took the opposite approach and stated the facts dispassionately and without a political spin. She stated that the rule raised by Buttigieg would have applied only to trains classified as high-hazard flammable trains: “This means even if the rule had gone into effect, this train wouldn’t have had ECP brakes.”
Homendy sounded more like a cabinet member than Buttigieg when she declared “Enough with the politics on this. I don’t understand why this has gotten so political. This is a community that is suffering. This is not about politics.” Homendy added that anyone who says otherwise is “spreading misinformation.”
Of course, I would not censor Buttigieg. It is sufficient (as shown this week) that free speech allows for good speech to counter bad speech. However, it is another example of how subjective censorship can be when you go into the business of barring views deemed disinformation.
Even The Washington Post called out the claims of Buttigieg. In a Monday column, Glenn Kessler stated
“We decided to examine every possible regulatory change made under Trump that could be related to the accident and assess whether it could have made an impact. From our analysis, none of the regulatory changes made during the Trump administration at this point can be cited as contributing to the accident.”
At a time of tragedy, presidents ideally try to rally a nation to a common cause and shared suffering. They do not always succeed. However, cabinet members are expected to show complete detachment from politics in dealing with tragedies to assure the public that public safety is not being balanced against political expediencies. That is why this false claim is so serious. One of the first major statements made by Buttigieg at the scene was to attack the former president and the expected opponent to President Biden in 2024.
Buttigieg went off the tracks with this political spin. He should apologize.
end
3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//
USA COVID//
(Watson/SummitNews)
Rand Paul Calls For Declassification Of COVID Lab-Leak Documents
Senator Rand Paul has demanded that the Biden Administration declassify documents purporting to show that The Energy Department concluded that the likely cause of the coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak in Wuhan.
“Classified documents leaked (they should be declassified!) showing scientists at DOE believe COVID leaked from Wuhan Lab,” Paul, who is now the ranking member of Senate Homeland Security Committee, tweeted along with a link to the Wall Street Journal story on the documents.
The revelation came in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.
The Energy Department conclusion adds to the State Department, the National Intelligence Council, and the FBI’s apparent agreement that the bio lab in Wuhan was the likeliest source of the outbreak.
Senator Josh Hawley also said Sunday that he intends to introduce legislation to declassify intelligence findings about the likely origin of the outbreak.
“The American people deserve the full truth about #COVID origins. No more whitewash. I will again introduce legislation to make the U.S. government’s intelligence reports on COVID more open to the public,” Hawley tweeted.
Other Republicans have also called for a renewed focus on the origins of the pandemic. Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday refused to say if the Biden administration will release an “unclassified version” of the Chinese lab leak assessment:
NSC spokesman John Kirby also refused to give direct answers:
end
(Steve Watson/SummitNews)
Cruz: “Abominable” Fauci Has “Hurt Millions Of Kids”
Senator Ted Cruz blasted Anthony Fauci in a fresh interview Monday as new documents came to light highlighting yet another U.S. government agency’s belief that the coronavirus pandemic was caused by a lab leak.
“Dr. Fauci’s behavior on this has been abominable,” Cruz said in an appearance on Fox Business.
“I think he has done more damage than any bureaucrat in the history of the United States,” Cruz continued, adding “He has championed policies that have hurt millions of Americans, hurt millions of school kids in particular.”
“And he has also done more to damage the credibility of the United States government when it comes to medical and scientific advice because Dr. Fauci allowed his advice to be politicized,” Cruz further urged.
“We know Dr. Fauci in writing asked Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook to suppress references to the origin of COVID being from a Chinese government lab,” the Senator continued, adding he did so because “there’s a very real possibility that Fauci himself bears culpability.”
“I believe Dr. Fauci has lied to Congress, which is a felony, when he has stated that the federal government did not fund gain of function research in in the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” Cruz asserted.
“Since then, the National Institutes for Health in writing has contradicted that. And if the Biden Justice Department were enforcing the law, they ought to be investigating Dr. Fauci for lying to Congress, which is a federal crime. To date, the Biden DOJ has been too political to hold Dr. Fauci accountable,” Cruz charged.
It emerged earlier this month that Fauci is now profiting handsomely from speaking engagements months after leaving his position in the Biden administration, to the tune of up to $100,000 per appearance.
end
SWAMP STORIES
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report February 27, 2023 Issue 6956Independent View of the News US Economic Data Released on FridayJan Personal Income 0.6% m/m, 1.0% expected, 0.3% priorJan Spending 1.8%, 1.4% expected -0.1% priorJan Real Spending 1.1% as expected, -0.3% priorJan PCE Deflator 0.6% m/m, 0.5% consensus, 5.4% y/y, 5% expected, 0.2% & 5.3% priorJan Core PCE 0.6% m/m, 0.4% expected, 4.7% y/y, 4.3% expected, 4.6% priorJan New Home Sales 670k, 620k consensus, 625k priorFeb UM Sentiment 67, 66.4 expected, 66.4 priorFeb UM Current Conditions 70.7, 72.7 consensus, 72.6 priorFeb UM Expectations 64.7, 62.5 expected, 62.3 priorFeb UM 1-Year Inflation 2.95 as expected and prior US PCE Inflation Accelerates, Adding Pressure for More Fed Hikes – BBG Fed’s preferred price index rose 5.4% (y/y) in January, core up 4.7% Consumer spending, adjusted for prices, jumped 1.1% from the prior month, the most in nearly two years, after consecutive declines… The PCE price index increased 0.6% from a month earlier, the most since June… Ex- food and energy, the core PCE price index also climbed 0.6%. Both… exceeded projections… https://www.yahoo.com/now/fed-preferred-inflation-gauge-accelerates-135729762.html
Cleveland Fed: By omitting outliers (small and large price changes) and focusing on the interior of the distribution of price changes, the median PCE inflation rate can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend than either the all-items PCE price index or the PCE price index excluding food and energy (Core PCE price)… https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-pce-inflation
Fed’s key gauge of US inflation surges at fastest rate since June “Reaccelerating price pressures, coupled with a still-strong labor market… will keep the Fed on track to hike rates further over coming meetings,”… https://t.co/rUNuZHIfGl
January PCE rises 0.6%; Biden says economy improving despite ‘setbacks’ “As I’ve long said, there may be setbacks along the way, but we face global economic challenges from a position of strength,” he said… Loretta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Friday that “very high inflation… Incoming economic information shows that our monetary policy actions are having the intended effect of slowing demand and reducing price pressures. In addition, supply chain disruptions are easing,” she said. “But inflation remains too high.”…https://t.co/I0uS9Om02K
Cleveland Fed President Mester: “I see the risks to the inflation forecast as tilted to the upside and the costs of continued high inflation as being significant,” Mester said at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York. “So in my view, at this point, with the labor market still strong, the costs of undershooting on policy or prematurely loosening policy still outweigh the costs of overshooting.”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-inflation-fight-longer-pce-index-173353572.html
Fed Needs to Hike ‘Significantly,’ Perhaps to 6.5%, Study Says – BBG New research… was sharply critical of the central bank’s initially slow response to rising prices. In a paper presented Friday at a conference in New York, a quintet of Wall Street economists and academics argue that policymakers still have an overly-optimistic outlook and they will need to inflict some economic pain to get prices under control… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/fed-may-need-to-hike-to-6-5-to-cool-prices-new-study-says
Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows (Same study as noted above) The authors found that over 16 episodes of “disinflation” engineered by central banks in the United States, Germany, Canada and the United Kingdom, “we find no instance in which a significant central bank-induced disinflation occurred without a recession.” The researchers included Brandeis International Business School professor Stephen Cecchetti, who is a former top economist at the Bank for International Settlements; Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan; and Columbia Business School professor Frederic Mishkin, who is a former Fed governor and longtime research collaborator with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke… https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/fed-needs-recession-win-inflation-fight-study-shows-2023-02-24/
ESHs and bonds tumbled after the ugly US PCE data. They hit a bottom at 10:55 ET on buying for the European close rally and because St. Louis Fed President Bullard said a soft landing is possible due to the Fed’s inflation credibility. The remark is absurd and risible, but it helped foment a 31-handle ESH rally.
Bullard’s full speech: Credible and Incredible Disinflations Bullard noted that the Volcker disinflation was costly but “incredible”—initially, few believed that the Fed was serious about reducing inflation at that time. The current situation for the U.S. seems to fall more closely under the rubric of a “credible disinflation,” Bullard said. “Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that the Fed may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,” he said. The path to the soft landing requires a credible switch of monetary-fiscal policy to the policy regime that existed before the pandemic, he added… https://t.co/7Fx3OdhDaN
The European close-Bullard rally ended at 11:47 ET. ESHs retreated 23 handles by 13:08 ET. Then, the Friday afternoon rally began. The rally paused when the final hour arrived. The volume on SPY 0DTE 396 calls was 455k at 15:20 ET; SPY was 396.50. ESHs and stocks broke down near 15:30 ET. ESHs and stocks flatlined from 15:37 ET until they spiked higher at 15:54 ET. SPY closed at 396.38.
@WSJAsia: China’s leader is preparing to install associates to run the central bank and revive a Communist Party body to tighten political control over financial affairs, say people familiar with the discussions https://t.co/WRYx7YreKY
Even JPMorgan Is Lashing Out at Ridiculous Seasonal Adjustments in Key US Data Job Openings – is either intentionally or accidentally inflated, and that when look at third party data, the real number of job openings is about a third of what the monthly JOLTS report indicates… Both the Philadelphia Fed and the BLS itself (!) recently found that the monthly NFP data is useless. Here is UBS economist Jonathan Pringle explaining why: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the net change in private sector jobs in 2022Q2 was -287K. In contrast, in the monthly employment report, private nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) is estimated to have risen 1.045 million!… Plus, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia staff published a paper last month estimating NFP overstated the employment gains in 2022Q2 by more than 1 million… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/even-jpmorgan-lashing-out-ridiculous-seasonal-adjustments-key-us-data
For well over a year, we have incessantly warned that Team Biden has crafted better economic data than reality by fooling with seasonal adjustments. Others are starting to recognize the scheme.
Positive aspects of previous session Late morning and afternoon rallies during NYSE trading
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds got hammered in early US trading
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big of a risk is the ugly geopolitical situation to dollar-denominate assets?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3963.79 Previous session High/Low: 3978.25; 3943.08
@SteveGuest: Sen. Ted Cruz blasts Biden and Zelenskyy Ukraine theater: “What makes for good TV, let’s sound the air raid sirens… If there actually was a real air raid siren, they would be running. And if he wasn’t running, the Secret Service would have run & grabbed him and put him in a shelter … https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1628936198331723776
4. Has the U.S. learned anything about “endless wars?” The American public is naturally war-weary after decades of failed regime change wars and moralistic nation-building crusade boondoggles. There is simply no political appetite right now for a dramatically prolonged military engagement—especially one in Europe, while our actual top geopolitical threat, China, flies spy balloons over our continent unimpeded and tests nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles… The Washington uniparty’s desire for escalation in Eastern Europe may aid rapacious Beltway defense contractors, but it is manifestly contrary to the expressed interests of the American people… In every way, the Biden administration’s current approach is “America Last,” not “America First.”… https://www.newsweek.com/questions-washington-uniparty-ukraine-one-year-later-opinion-1783521
@TuckerCarlson: It’s a measure of our media’s total corruption that no one ever asks Biden what the United States is hoping to accomplish in Ukraine. “As long as it takes” to do what? Now the objective appears to be winning World War Three against both Russia and China. https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1628935118583910400
@greg_price11: Zelensky says it is “dangerous” for Americans to question the amount of aid being given to Ukraine because “if Ukraine loses, Russia is going to enter Baltic states, NATO member states and the U.S. will have to send their sons and daughters to war and they will be dying.”
GOP Sen @BasedMikeLee: Anyone who says it’s “dangerous” for Americans to ask questions about how $113 billion in U.S. assistance was spent doesn’t understand Americans, and certainly shouldn’t be lecturing them for asking.
GOP Sen @HawleyMO: My message to congressional Republicans: you can either be the party of Ukraine & the globalists or you can be the party of East Palestine & the working people of America. https://t.co/A3SjyKE7PC
Are we prepared for ‘eternal war’ in Ukraine? Over the past few weeks I have spoken to officials at the most senior levels of the British government… For many in London, Berlin and Paris, today, Ukraine’s best-case scenario is to stabilise the front sufficiently to allow it to emerge as a viable, independent state, able to defend itself… The unstated goal, in other words, is to grasp towards a temporary settlement which eventually becomes a permanent reality even if no one ever officially recognises it as such… The question Western diplomats are now asking themselves is what this “minimal breathable scenario” now looks like for Ukraine? I’m told it consists of three basic factors: first, giving Ukraine the capability to be able to stop Russia’s constant aerial bombardment beyond a future ceasefire; second, to ensure Ukraine’s free access to the Black Sea, and third, to secure a stable front. “This is the minimum Ukraine needs before it can even consider talking,” one official put it to me. The problem is that the pre-conditions for Ukraine to emerge as such a functioning, independent state are not in place. And so, the war will drag on — potentially for a long time yet… The fear in London and Paris is that Gerasimov’s appointment, combined with Putin’s mobilisation, will allow Russia to bring to bear its two most important advantages: numbers and the ability to escalate. Over time, Russia’s numerical supremacy will begin to show on the battlefield… In Paris, there is particular concern about this “double asymmetry”…In Berlin, a similar sense of fatalism has taken hold… most believe Putin’s plan is to play it long — to simply outlast the West… In the United States, attention will quickly turn to the 2024 presidential election…There is a concern that his (DJT) magnetic pull on the Republican party will drag rivals into promising to bring the war to an end on whatever terms… The goal that many in the West now privately aspire to, then, is to “asphyxiate” the conflict by strangling Russia’s hope of victory before the West loses interest.https://unherd.com/2023/02/are-we-prepared-for-eternal-war-in-ukraine/
President Biden says there’s no evidence of China siding with Russia in war with Ukrainehttps://t.co/rgNRIppab2
China releases 12-point peace plan for Russia-Ukraine war Respecting the sovereignty of all countries; Abandoning the Cold War mentality; Ceasing hostilities; Resuming peace talks; Resolving the humanitarian crisis; Protecting civilians and prisoners of war; Keeping nuclear power plants safe; Reducing strategic risks; Facilitating grain exports; Stopping unilateral sanctions; Keeping industrial and supply chains stable; Promoting post-conflict reconstruction… https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-releases-12-point-peace-plan-russia-ukraine-war
China calls for peace talks, cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine (12-point plan) US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman… “My assessment is the PRC [People’s Republic of China] is trying to both increase its standing in the international community by saying that it’s willing to mediate and help bring this horrifying invasion to an end. And at the same time, they are committed to their no-limits partnership with Russia… And we have, certainly, concern and growing concern about that partnership and the PRC’s support for this invasion,” she added. https://nypost.com/2023/02/23/china-calls-for-peace-talks-cease-fire-between-russia-and-ukraine/
Zelenskyy on Friday afternoon ET said he would meet with China Dictator Xi. The best outcome for China is for the US and Russia to diminish each other over Ukraine.
@ArthurM40330824: Polish media accidently recorded Zelensky’s double when they covered Biden’s visit to Kyivhttps://t.co/F2ufQk76z0
@elisabethbraw: Two commercial Chinese vessels have severed the two undersea cables connecting the Matsu Islands to Taiwan proper (and the world). Coincidence? Or a practice run?
@Jkylebass: China continues to sever undersea cables near Taiwan as a precursor to a full invasion. A Chinese general has suggested the first move of the PLA should be to cut off all internet/smartphone connectivity. The PLA can then ravage the good people of Taiwan without pesky video.
Natural Immunity Better Than COVID-19 Vaccination Against Omicron: CDC Study Natural immunity, or postinfection immunity, provided 76% protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations while Omicron was the dominant virus strain…the researchers found. A primary series of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, in people without a prior infection, provided just 39 percent protection… https://www.theepochtimes.com/natural-immunity-better-than-covid-19-vaccination-against-omicron-cdc-study_5076666.html
@SKMorefield: Dr. James Thorp, co-author of a new peer-reviewed paper on the Covid ‘vaccine’ and dramatic increases in miscarriages, fetal deaths, and menstrual abnormalities, speaks to Tucker Carlson: “The pushing of these experimental Covid-19 vaccines globally is the greatest violation of medical ethics in the history of medicine, maybe humanity.” https://twitter.com/SKMorefield/status/1628942187672088577
@KanekoaTheGreat: Woody Harrelson hosted Saturday Night Live and used his opening monologue to criticize Big Pharma’s response to COVID-19: “The biggest drug cartels in the world get together and buy up all the media and all the politicians and force all the people in the world to stay locked in their homes and people can only come out if they take the cartels’ drugs and keep taking them over and over… Who’s going to believe that crazy idea?…https://t.co/i0PfNrlcGd
Fruit and veg purchase restrictions in retailers to last ‘weeks’ (UK)
Millions of men are leaving the workforce. Here’s the lasting impact that has on the economy. In January, the share of 25- to 54-year-old men working or job-hunting was at 88.5%, below the pre-pandemic mark of 89.2%. By contrast, the participation rate for women in that age group had climbed to 76.9%, effectively back to its pre-pandemic level of 77%… If the participation rate for prime-age men was at its 1990 level, there would be an additional 2.7 million of them in the workforce… Non-college-educated men have left the labor force in greater numbers as the shortfall in their wages compared with those of college-educated men has increased, the study says. From 1980 to 2019, non-college-educated men’s median weekly earnings fell 17% after adjusting for inflation, while pay for their college-educated counterparts increased by 20%…he lower self-esteem associated with a lower social status has caused some men to simply drop out rather than cope with the stress… https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/02/23/men-leaving-workforce-economy-fed-interest-rates/11326201002/
Warren Buffett delivers clear inflation warning, slams ‘disgusting’ business leader behavior in annual letter – “Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences,” – “Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well,” he said. “That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required.” https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/warren-buffett-inflation-warning-slams-disgusting-money-manager-behavior-letter
Chinese lab leak likely behind COVID-19 outbreak: US Energy Departmenthttps://trib.al/94IIaRd
@AshleyRindsberg: On Feb. 17, 2020 @nytimes & @washingtonpost ran nearly identical stories calling lab leak a “fringe” idea and “conspiracy theory.”… Why has the media’s approach to lab leak and pandemic response aligned so neatly with the narrative m the CCP was pushing?…
Today – Thursday’s Outside Day for the S&P 500 Index was resolved to the downside on Friday. Nevertheless, many traders will play for the standard Monday rally and February performance gaming. No impact Fed officials are scheduled to speak. ESHs are +6.25 at 20:35 ET on Sunday night buying.
Expected economic data: Jan Durable Goods -3.9%, ex-Trans 0.1%, Nondef ex-Air 0.0%; Jan Pending Home Sales 0.9% m/m; Feb Dallas Fed Mfg Activity -9.5; Fed Gov Jefferson 10:30 ET
@alx on Friday: Q: “Are you planning on traveling to East Palestine?” BIDEN: “At this moment not. I was, I did a whole video, I mean, uh, you know, the uh, what the Hell? On Zoom. All I can hear every time I think of Zoom is that song of my generation, ‘Who’s Zoomin’ Who?’” (Not an SNL skit!) https://twitter.com/alx/status/1629256968547233796
@RNCResearch: “So do you plan to travel [to East Palestine] and have you talked to the mayor?” BIDEN: “I can’t recall… I’ve talked to everyone there is to talk to”https://t.co/kvVbtlmIKo
@simonateba: Journalists who traveled with First Lady @DrBiden from Namibia to Kenya were again surprised moments ago that while she took no questions from them after making a brief comment on Ukraine during the flight, @CNN was allowed to go to the forward cabin to interview her in her office mid-air. On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, she read other journalists this statement before inviting CNN to interview her, “So I just wanted to say on the one-year anniversary of Ukraine that not a day goes by that I don’t think of President Zelensky, Olena, their family, and all the people in Ukraine and what they are going through and how hard they’re fighting to keep their freedom. So thank you.” Your reaction.
Man in the middle: Emails show how cooperating Hunter Biden associate could dish on Joe Rosemont business associate had critical access to Joe and Hunter Biden during the first family’s push to discover “earnings potential” overseas. Contemporaneous emails gleaned from the laptop show (Eric) Schwerin handled some tax matters for both the future president and his son, engaging in conversations about everything from Joe Biden’s private earnings potential to his son’s unpaid taxes. He also witnessed discussions about some of the family’s most controversial overseas business deals ranging from Hunter Biden’s remuneration from the Burisma Holdings natural gas firm in Ukraine and a plan to make money off the name of a Russian oligarch to dealings with the CEFC energy firm in communist China… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/holdemails-show-why-biden-business-partner-eric-schwerins
@ShawnWitzemann: Never Before Seen J6 Video from Anonymous Source. Has anybody identified this very excitable boy, who just so happened to be standing next to the fake gallows, while running his mouth about insurrection to anyone who would listen? https://twitter.com/ShawnWitzemann/status/1613425979141283841 @pepesgrandma: Yes, he is wearing a yellow bracelet on his right wrist. @kylenabecker: In another clip, an officer explains how to spot the undercover agents working the Jan. 6 crowd. “They will have a wristband. Their guns will have a candy stripe on the barrel…. I don’t know the wristband color, but they’ll have a wristband somewhere.” https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1627852258586107904
@TomBevanRCP: After two years of not caring at all, the media is suddenly, urgently interested in full transparency of surveillance footage from Jan 6. (The MSM & Dems’ narrative is about to be debunked!)
Biden judicial pick suggested criminalizing speech against ‘oppressed groups’ https://trib.al/7s0Ir78
Scientists discover ‘monster galaxies’ near dawn of the universe: ‘Mind-blown’ “The revelation that massive galaxy formation began extremely early in the history of the universe upends what many of us had thought was settled science,” Leja said in a statement. “It turns out we found something so unexpected it actually creates problems for science. It calls the whole picture of early galaxy formation into question.”… https://nypost.com/2023/02/23/scientists-discover-monster-galaxies-near-dawn-of-universe/
Over the past few weeks, social media has teemed with videos of school violence from around the US.
Video shows 6-foot-6 student beat teacher unconscious for taking Nintendo Switch The rampaging student, who lives in a group home, began spitting in the teacher’s direction, telling cops that he was “going to kill her” when he returned to school… https://trib.al/j9XWksl
@BryanLeibFL: It brings me no joy to share this video of POTUS in Poland. He is clearly very disoriented and confused…for a photo opp. Who is really our Commander-in-Chief? Sure isn’t Biden… https://twitter.com/BryanLeibFL/status/1628415548416458753
Ex-DoD intel operative @T_S_P_O_O_K_Y: It is clear @JoeBiden projects total incompetence and weakness…it is this sort of weakness that Jimmy Carter projected that resulted in the Iranian Hostage Crisis…and here we see unfolding the total catastrophe of the Biden administration…
Pentagon panel says military bases should stop selling guns to troops under 25 to fight suicideshttps://trib.al/F4MRhqO (Wouldn’t it be more humane and appropriate to ascertain the suicide causes?)
DeSantis’s office says he will boycott NBC, MSNBC over Andrea Mitchell question on Black history “There will be no consideration of anything related to NBC Universal or its affiliates until and at least Andrea Mitchell corrects the blatant lie she made about the governor,” DeSantis’s press secretary, Bryan Griffin, said in an email to the network that he posted on Twitter… Mitchell later said her questioning was “imprecise” but did not explicitly apologize. The Hill has reached out to NBC for further comment… https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3871445-desantiss-office-says-he-will-boycott-nbc-msnbc-over-andrea-mitchell-question-on-black-history/
@CBSNews: A passenger jet was forced to abort its landing Wednesday at Hollywood Burbank Airport in the Los Angeles area after another jet had been cleared to take off from the same runway, federal authorities said. (A similar incident occurred two weeks ago!) https://t.co/pPAL1G66AR
TUESDAY The King Report February 28, 2023 Issue 6957Independent View of the NewsESHs rallied moderately during the Nikkei’s 1st session; but during the 2nd session, most of the gain was rescinded. ESHs turned a tad negative during late Chinese trading. After China closed at 2 ET, ESHs staged the expected rally for the European open.
ESHs and stocks spiked higher on the European open, then plodded higher until 5:10 ET. ESHs and stocks went inert until the pre-NYSE opening rally began. ESHs and stocks peaked at 8:53 ET. They then sank until a bottom formed at 9:45 ET. The usual suspects eagerly and manically bought the early NYSE decline. ESHs surged higher, hitting a daily high of 4024.75 at 10:09 ET.
Alas, sellers appeared; ESHs and stocks tumbled until 12:22 ET. A belated Noon Balloon developed; it became an A-B-C rally that ended at 14:12 ET. After the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESHs and stocks sank. US stocks hit session lows at 15:38 ET. The expected late manipulation pushed ESHs 11 handles higher.
US Durable Goods sank 4.5% m/m in January, the biggest m/m drop since 2020 Covid lockdowns. -4.0% was consensus. Durables ex-Transport increased 0.75 m/m, +0.1% was expected. Nondefense, ex-Air orders increased 0.8%; unchanged was consensus. Shipments are +1.1%, 0.2% was expected.
Jan Pending Homes Sales surged 8.1% m/m; +1.0% was expected. Unseasonable mild January weather is producing better economic metrics than expected. Is it appropriating future economic growth?
February Dallas Fed Mfg. Activity -13.5 -9.3 consensus, -8.4 prior
Spending shocker: CBO’s latest debt projection should stun even Washington The current debt the U.S. owes is $31.4 trillion. But the CBO estimates the federal government will accumulate an eye-popping $19 trillion in debt over the next decade… It was dangerous for the federal government when the debt began climbing decades ago. But it really took off after 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The financial turndown of 2008 didn’t help matters. We mentioned the tax cuts. And the profligate spending of COVID catapulted projected debt to frightening levels… https://t.co/XCx858Wryd
Positive aspects of previous session Rallies for the European open, the NYSE open, after the NYSE opening dip, and at midday Over-owned Fangs and techs led the February performance gaming rally Bonds rallied modestly; the DJTA rallied sharply
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks rescinded most of their rallies; the Feb. performance gaming attempts mostly failed
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big of a risk is the ugly geopolitical situation to dollar-denominate assets?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3991.28 Previous session High/Low: 4018.05; 3973.55
@EpochTimes: Ohio Gov. @MikeDeWine—who authorized an end to the evacuation order of East Palestine 2 days after a controlled burn sent toxic vinyl chloride into the air—has for years received financial support from Norfolk Southern, an investigation revealed… WSYX reported that Norfolk Southern and its political action committee have contributed more than $20,000 to DeWine’s gubernatorial campaigns and his 2019 inauguration… https://t.co/apkiV5OXs4
@JackPosobiec: BILL GATES: The Ukrainian government is one of worst in the world… corrupt, controlled by a few rich people…”https://t.co/TwsrjnCJNe
China Outmaneuvers Biden – Putin and Zelensky say they now want to meet with China This week, President Biden watched as President Xi of China presented a peace plan to the world that the Communist nation said it hoped would lead to a peaceful resolution of the year-long war in Ukraine. Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky immediately complimented the peace plan with Zelensky saying he welcomed a meeting with the Chinese diplomatic team to discuss the next steps. The move by China embarrassed Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken for spending the last year failing to come up with an American plan for ending the deadly conflict… For Blinken, the top diplomat for the United States and the man who outlines the priorities for American Foreign Service Officers (FSO), it was another example of being side-lined.
Republicans question ‘suspicious’ CCP ties to Biden ally: ‘The American people must know’ “We’ve known for a long time that Biden Inc. is deeply intertwined with the CCP,” said Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn. “It is not surprising that those associated with the Bidens, including former Ambassador Baucus, are also involved in potentially shady dealings with Beijing. We must put an end to the never-ending methods Communist China utilizes to peddle influence in the USA.”… “The ties to money with China have always been there, they are a huge source of money… As these shady business dealings continue to be revealed, the American people must know the extent of Joe ‘Big Guy’ Biden’s involvement and what it means for our national security.”… The Baucus Institute currently offers a China study abroad program, called the “Baucus Institute-Wanxiang Fellow Summer Study Abroad Program,” which sends University of Montana students to Hangzhou. Co-hosting the program with the Baucus Institute is the China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF), which was founded by top CCP official Tung Chee-hwa… https://t.co/iqXmiANBL7
@VivekGRamaswamy: We thought we could export Big Macs & Happy Meals and spread democracy to China. We thought we could use our money to get them to be more like us. Instead, they used our money to get us to be more like them. And it worked.
As Republicans start investigating Biden, the White House war room is ready to fight There’s an ornate suite of rooms deep inside the Eisenhower Executive Office Building that, in an earlier era, was used by the Secretary of War. These days, a team of about two dozen White House lawyers, strategists and Capitol Hill veterans gathers regularly in that suite to plan their strategy for dealing with a barrage of oversight demands launched by House Republicans: an investigations ‘war room’ that is literally working out of a war room…The White House posture is to let Biden stay above the fray, talking about his administration’s accomplishments and goals… https://www.npr.org/2023/02/27/1159343005/as-republicans-start-investigating-biden-the-white-house-war-room-is-ready-to-fi
White House scales back plans to regulate U.S. investments in China (Why reward bad behavior?) A planned executive order is expected to focus largely on transparency, and prohibit only new investments in Chinese semiconductor firms… (10% for The Big Guy keeps paying dividends!) https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/27/white-house-investments-china-00084473
@AP: John Kirby, National Security Council spokesman, said there’s “not a consensus” on COVID’s exact origins… (Team Biden keeps stooging for China. Why? 10% for The Big Guy?) https://twitter.com/AP/status/1630353335000637441
@amuse: The latest edition (4th) of Biden’s Art of War: The Wisdom of Joe Tzu… “Store your most sensitive secrets in an office paid for by your nation’s enemies.” – Joe Tzu; “Allow your enemy to buy your farmland and control your food supply.” – Joe Tzu; “Replace your military’s most skilled fighters with individuals with diverse pronouns.” – Joe Zsu https://twitter.com/amuse
‘I may be a white boy, but I’m not stupid’: Biden at Black history event The Divine Nine are the nine Black fraternities and sororities founded between 1906 and 1963 at HBCUs. “I know real power when I see it… “By the way, I may be a White boy, but I’m not stupid. I know where the power is. You think I’m joking, but I learned a long time ago about the power of the Divine Nine,” Mr. Biden continued to a smattering of awkward laughter and applause… (Joe Biden, conspiracy theorist!) https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/27/joe-biden-i-may-be-white-boy-im-not-stupid/
EU and UK strike Brexit deal on Northern Ireland Sunak maintains the deal will slash trade bureaucracy and reduce the role of EU law and the European Court of Justice in Northern Ireland, as well as giving the region’s assembly at Stormont a say over new EU rules… https://www.ft.com/content/2017842b-eedd-4acd-91a9-22271bf8ddfa
Today – Traders expected more performance gaming because February was a tough month for stocks and bonds. The manipulations to boost stocks yesterday to embellish February performance largely failed. Nevertheless, traders want to be long for expected manipulation to game February performance.
ESHs are +8.50 at 20:55 ET.
Expected economic data: Jan Advance Goods Trade -$91.0B; Jan Wholesale Inventories 0.1% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.2% m/m; Dec FHFA House Price Index -0.2% m/m; Dec S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.4% m/m. +4.7% y/y; Feb Chicago PMI 45.3; Feb Richmond Fed Mfg Index -5; Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence 108.5; New Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 14:30 ET.
(AZ Gov) Katie Hobbs accused of receiving Sinaloa cartel bribes – A California-based law firm has accused Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, Runbeck Election Services, and a slew of other election officials, mayors, judges, city councilman, and county supervisors in the state of receiving bribes from the Sinaloa cartel… “In 2018, Mr. Thaler discovered, incidental to another matter, a series of trust deeds evidencing that cash laundering through single family residences in Arizona was pervasive and ongoing,” Breger continued. “With that, a new investigation began with the focus being on money laundering and related racketeering activities in Maricopa County and several other Arizona counties. The Harris/Thaler office currently represents several parties directly damaged by the racketeering activities.”… https://thepostmillennial.com/katie-hobbs-accused-of-receiving-sinaloa-cartel-bribes
Child Labor Today – A Times exposé has revealed that young teenagers work long shifts, sometimes for nationally known brands. What can be done?… “Migrant children, who have been coming into the United States without their parents in record numbers, are ending up in some of the most punishing jobs in the country,” Hannah writes. Many children have worked on products for big-name companies, including Whole Foods, Walmart, J. Crew and Frito-Lay. “It’s not that we want to be working these jobs,” said Kevin Tomas, 15, who was recently stacking cereal boxes at a factory. “It’s that we have to help our families.”…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/briefing/migrant-child-labor.html
@simonateba: @PressSec Karine Jean-Pierre says the @JoeBiden @WhiteHouse and administration are finally beginning to crack down on child labor afterheartbreaking report exposed the horrific treatment of children being trafficked to the United States from the Southern border. https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1630302524035964928
Woody Harrelson cracks joke at expense of lockdowns and big pharma on SNL, liberals lose their minds – “The last people I would trust with my health is Big Pharma and big government because neither one of those strike me as caring entities,” the actor said, and later added “billions of dollars” was made in the Covid pandemic. He added, “Ivermectin got made into a horse tranquilizer. Hydroxychloroquine got made ridiculous, and there was only one thing that could work, and that’s the vaccine, and ultimately, because of that, billions of dollars were made.”… https://t.co/cTrDSHLGCm
@NewsBecker: Marc Thiessen: “The media didn’t just downplay this, they made fun of people who said it came from a lab leak. The reason is because at the time it was the 2020 Election, and any effort to blame China was an effort to deflect against blame from Donald Trump.” https://t.co/Bu3nstfElz
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