Mar 1, 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $18.90 at $1838.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.04  to $20.99

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1837.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.99

Bitcoin morning price:, 23,828 UP 603 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,426 UP 207  dollars

Platinum price closing  $961.4 UP $4.45

Palladium price; closing $1446.10 UP $26.40

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,498.53 UP $7.55 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1529.02 UP 11.53 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1722.91 DOWN 3.05 euros per oz

COMEX DATA

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,828.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/28/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 03/02/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED323 C HSBC 5
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 22
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 32
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 57 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 22 3
880 C CITIGROUP 6
905 C ADM 1TOTAL: 79 79
MONTH TO DATE: 1,462

JPMORGAN STOPPED 32/79

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT:   79 NOTICES FOR 7900  OZ  or  0.2457 TONNES

total notices so far: 1462 contracts for 146,200 oz (4.547 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 943 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4,715,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  2176 for 10,880,000 oz 

 

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD  UP $18.90

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 4 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2,574 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.614. MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 667 CONTRACTS TO 123,900 AND FURTHER FROM THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.26 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED   OUR PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 124,080 OI CONTRACTS RECORDED FEB 22/2023. THUS NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER WAS SET 123,900 MARCH 1/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.26). BUT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 209 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GOOD  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 458 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  15.58 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP OF 660,000//NEW STANDING: 14.920 MILLION OZ/ ////  V)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  29 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 458 contracts:   OR 2.290  MILLION OZ . (458 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.290 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  2.290 MILLION OZ//INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 667 DESPITE  OUR  $0.26 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 458 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF  15.58 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 660,000 E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON   .. WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 209 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAD 943  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR   4,715,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD  SIZED 3673 CONTRACTS  TO 426,890 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 888 CONTRACTS. 

.

 WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 3673 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $12.10 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 33,700 OZ (1.048 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $12.10 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8884 OI CONTRACTS (27.63 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  5211 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 426,890

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8884 CONTRACTS  WITH 3673 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5211 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8884 CONTRACTS OR 27.63 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5211 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3673) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 8884  CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 33700 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 6.0435 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)   GOOD  SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

5211  CONTRACTS OR 521,100 OZ OR 16.208 TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5211 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  16.208   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  16.208/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.4507% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 16.208 TONNES/INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD  SIZED 667 CONTRACTS OI TO  123,900 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 123,929 CONTRACTS MARCH 1/2023. 

EFP ISSUANCE 458 CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY  458 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 458 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 638 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  458 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS  OF 209 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.045 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $0.26  GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32,74 PTS OR 1.00%    //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 833.77 PTS OR 4.21%      /The Nikkei closed UP 70.93%  PTS OR .26%          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN  0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8636 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8684//    /Oil UP TO 76.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.92   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3673 CONTRACTS UP TO 427,778 WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.10. 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5211 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  APRIL 5211 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5211   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 8884  CONTRACTS IN THAT 5211 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3673 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR  GAIN  IN PRICE OF $12.10. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    MAR  (6.0435) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  6.0435 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $12.10)  //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8884 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 27.63 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 33,700 OZ  (1.048 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $12.10.  

WE HAD -888   CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8884 CONTRACTS OR 888,400 OZ OR 27.63 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 185,289// //poor

final gold volumes/yesterday  201,997/// fair

//MARCH 1//

 MARCH  2023 CONTRACT

//

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	nil  oz     .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	79 notice(s) 7900 OZ 04.547 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	441 contracts    44100 oz 1.496 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	1462  notices 146200 4.547 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 0

total withdrawals: nil  oz 

in tonnes: 0.000 tonnes

Adjustments;  0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 560 contracts having LOST 1046  contracts. We had 1383 notices filed yesterday so surprisingly we

gained 337 notices or an additional 33700 oz will stand for metal on day 2 of the delivery cycle.  Usually we see an EFP jump on day 2. 

April gained 977 contracts up to 325,452 contracts

May gained its initial 14 contracts to stand at 14

We had 79  notice(s) filed today for 7900 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 79  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped  32/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account  3 and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1,462 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR. 560 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  79 x 100 oz per contract equals 160,600 OZ  OR 4.9953 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of MARCH. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1,462 x 100 oz+   560   OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (79)x 100 oz} which equals 194,300 oz standing OR 6.0435 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.. 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 6.0435 TONNES.   

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,789,729.416 OZ   55.67 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  21,651,865.517 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  10,889,770.731     (338,71 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,762,094.786 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,100,041 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.04 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAR/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	13,776.000 oz Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	943 CONTRACT(S)    (4,715,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	808 contracts  (4,040,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2176 contracts  (10,880,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i)Into  CNT  599,614.690 oz

ii) into Delaware  8649.04 oz

Total deposits: 608,218.730 oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 147.648 million oz/287.233 million =51.18% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Delaware:  13,776.000 oz

Total withdrawals; 13,776.000 oz

adjustments: 2

customer to dealer

JPMorgan: 3,586,897.900 oz

dealer to customer:

Delaware  14,614.185 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.785MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 287.233 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 1751   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1365  CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 1233 NOTICES FILED

YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST 132 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 660,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AND THESE GUYS DECIDED UP AN E.F.P. JUMP

TO LONDON.

April GAINED 102 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 512.

May GAINED 65 CONTRACTS UP TO 106,904.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 943 for 10,880,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  59,155//  fair//

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 65.924 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2176 x  5,000 oz = 10,880,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(1751) and the number of notices served upon today 943 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month:  2176 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (1751) – number of notices served upon today (943) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 14.920 million oz  +

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES 

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 915.30  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478/614 MILLION OZ.

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1  CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.614 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

PREPARE FOR 10 YEARS OF GLOBAL DESTRUCTION

Egon von Greyerz
March 1, 2023

The final stages of major economic cycles are always accompanied by the maximum amount of bad news as well as heinous events. This time is no different as the West is in the process of committing Harakiri (Seppuku). 

As Elon Musk said: 

“My mentality is that of a Samurai. I would rather commit Seppuku than fail.”

Sadly, the problem for the West is that it is both committing Harakiri and failing.

For at least half a century, the world has been in a process of self-destruction. 

As the decline accelerates, the next phase of 5-10 years will include major political, social, economic as well as wealth – destruction.

What can be more heinous than a total economic and financial collapse accompanied by a potential World War III that at worst could destroy the world totally. 

A recent article of mine discussed global fragility due to War, Debt and Energy Depletion.

In this article I outline the major risks today, financial and geopolitical and also discuss the best way to protect against these risks. Physical Gold is of course the ultimate wealth preservation investment. The next major move up in gold is not far away. See further on.

Biden’s recent visit to Ukraine and whistle stop tour of Europe confirmed that there is no desire to make peace but only war. More support of weapons and money from the US is forthcoming. And whatever the US dictates, Europe follows without considering the consequences. 

At the end of his Warsaw address Biden stated about Putin: 

“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”. 

Hmmm…. Hardly the talk of a peace maker

China on the other hand is trying to act as peacemaker but their proposal last Friday was cold shouldered by the West. 

More importantly, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an important policy document this week which is a very strong attack on the US hegemony called:

“US Hegemony and Its Perils”.

The attack starts in the introduction:

“Since becoming the world’s most powerful country after the two world wars and the Cold War, the United States has acted more boldly to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, pursue, maintain and abuse hegemony, advance subversion and infiltration, and wilfully wage wars, bringing harm to the international community.

It then goes on in detail to attack all the areas of US Hegemony like: Political – Throwing its Weight Around, Military – Wanton Use of Force, Economic – Looting and Exploitation, Technological – Monopoly and Suppression, Cultural – Spreading False Narratives. 

The document exemplifies in detail the hegemonic policies and attacks of the US. Although US politicians will totally reject its contents, it is difficult to argue with the facts put forward by China. 

As I mention regularly, I very much like America and its people but have difficulties accepting the policies of the Neocons who dominate US politics.

Here is an extract from the Conclusion in this Chinese document:

“The United States has been overriding truth with its power and trampling justice to serve self-interest. These unilateral, egoistic and regressive hegemonic practices have drawn growing, intense criticism and opposition from the international community. 

Countries need to respect each other and treat each other as equals. Big countries should behave in a manner befitting their status and take the lead in pursuing a new model of state-to-state relations featuring dialogue and partnership, not confrontation or alliance. China opposes all forms of hegemonism and power politics, and rejects interference in other countries’ internal affairs.” (Here is a link to the full document.)

It is difficult to argue with this conclusion. But we need to wear the moccasins of the US and rest of the world and look at China from that perspective. This is to follow my adage to walk three moon laps in somebody’s moccasins before you judge him. 

China is not attacking various countries in the world by force, but primarily using investments and trade routes to dominate the world like the Modern Silk Road called the Belt and Road Initiative. It sets out to connect 65% of the world’s population to China by creating a network of sea routes and land links. China is estimated to have spent $1 trillion so far but total estimates are as high as $8 trillion. It will most likely take decades to achieve and might become too costly as the world economy declines. 

However, what is clear is that China is investing heavily in infrastructure around the world both in Europe, Africa and South America. For example China is buying up ports in a substantial number of countries. They are also investing heavily in the resource sector globally. 

Another problem that the West has with China is their human rights record. 

Regardless, the trend is clear. The West is in a long term structural decline and the shift to China and the rest of the East and the South is inevitable as I discussed in the article“AS WEST, DEBT & STOCKS IMPLODE, EAST, GOLD & OIL WILL EXPLODE”

THE STRUCTURAL DECLINE OF THE WEST

All empires are ephemeral and this is what the US and Europe are currently experiencing.

The final stages of empires, like the Han, Roman, Mongol, Ottoman, Spanish and British always include the same ingredients some of which are: 

1. Excessive Debts and Deficits
2. Currency Collapse
3. Collapse of asset prices including property, bonds and stocks
4. Hyperinflation in the final stages, especially in food, commodities & services 
5. Migration
6. High Crime Rates & Breakdown of Law & Order
7. Moral Decadence
8. Social Unrest, Civil War  
9. Wars 

As the West is now falling (& failing), we can tick all the above events also in the current collapse. 

Global debt has exploded since 1971 to $2-3 quadrillion as I have explained in many articles like here.

If it wasn’t for the Petrodollar, the US would have collapsed years ago. But as more countries are considering trading oil in other currencies like Yuan, the dollar will first Gradually lose its value and then Suddenly to paraphrase Hemingway.

But remember that since Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971, all currencies have lost at least 97-99% of their value in real terms which is against gold.

Empires seldom die overnight so this process which started in 1971 could take another 5-10 years. But since we are now in the final stages, it could also happen Suddenly.

So let’s paint a potential scenario for the next 5-10 years.

In simple terms it will be more of the same if we look at the 9 points above. 

Debts and deficits will increase exponentially. I have for many years shown the growth in US debt which on average has doubled every 8 years since Reagan became president in 1981. 

On December 6, 2016, the chart below was included in a Family Office presentation I gave in London:

I projected then in 2016 that when Trump would reach the end of his first term in January 2021, US debt would be $28 trillion on the way to $40 trillion four years later in 2025. 

Interestingly, the debt was $28T in Jan. 2021. It doesn’t require a genius to project this figure as it is a straight extrapolation of the trend dating back 40 years. Still, I didn’t see anyone forecasting anywhere near the $28T debt in 2016. 

A couple of years ago, I raised my $40T debt in 2025 to $50T as the chart below shows:

So how is the US going to go from $32T to $50T in 3 years. Well, in the same way as bankrupt countries collapse with tax revenue falling precipitously and expenditure exploding. 

THE ROAD TO PERDITION FOR THE US & THE WEST

As the value of the dollar collapses, think:

• Much higher war costs, social security, and pensions. As pension fund assets implode, there probably won’t be any pensions. 
• Debt collapse both private and public with $2-3 quadrillion of derivatives turning into debt. 
• All bubble assets of stocks, bonds and property, only held up by fake money, collapsing  by 75-95% in real terms.
• Banks and financial institutions failing after initially having received $100s of trillions in printed, thus worthless, government support.
• With high inflation or hyperinflation, interest rates going to at least 20% or probably much higher. Financing a debt in the quadrillions at 20%+ will of course lead to even more money printing. The Fed and other central banks will clearly lose control of interest rates which will be determined by a market in panic.. 

WILL THERE BE A GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR?

The US has at this point stressed that there will be no uniformed US military in Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine has lost around 150,000 soldiers each. The problem for Ukraine is that this is around 50% of their regular soldiers whilst for Russia it is 13%. Also, a major part of the weapons and ammunition from the West is not forthcoming or substantially delayed. There just isn’t the spare capacity available to fulfil those promises. 

At this point, it looks like this war at best will be a very long drawn local conflict although Ukraine will find it difficult to sustain the war. In January 2022 the Ukraine population was 41 million and now 14 million are estimated to have left the country. 

In a war of this nature between two super powers, it is impossible to forecast the outcome. An “accident” or false flag can easily trigger the start of a nuclear war. 

Remember that this is a war between the US and Russia. So if there was a nuclear war, most missiles would be directed towards those two countries and potentially Ukraine. 

But if the world will see a nuclear war, all bets are off since some parts of the world would then be destroyed for decades. Therefore, it is not worth speculation about. 

WEALTH PRESERVATION & CBDCs

So assuming that this war remains a local conflict in Eastern Europe, how should people outside the war zone prepare financially?

Many countries are planing to introduce Central Bank Digital Money or CBDC. 

As the current monetary system in the West collapses, CBDC will only be another form of fiat money. The worst part about it is the ability to spy on and control people that it gives governments. As Western governments’ finances implode, CBDC is the perfect system for the likely socialist or Marxist economies that many Western countries are likely to have. 

For individuals who have the freedom to move, it would be preferable to leave the heavily indebted USA and Europe (especially the EU countries). 

One country in Europe still stands out as probably the best in the world both politically, economically and socially. This is of course Switzerland.

Yes, I have skin in the game here! I am Swiss from birth and pleased that I am. I was born and educated in Sweden and also like Sweden. 

But whilst Switzerland has remained a very sound country, Sweden has deteriorated dramatically. It now has one of the highest crime rates in Europe. As in the last 10-15 years Europe opened its borders for refugees from many poor and war struck countries, this has totally changed Swedish society.

There is nothing wrong with immigration. The world has always had migration. But until recent years, migrants had to look after themselves with no government subsidies. But in many countries in Europe and especially in Sweden, migrants arrive and get free housing and money to live. For many, there is no incentive to work and or to learn Swedish. Sadly an important percentage of men turn to crime and especially drug dealing. Fatal shootings between the immigrants are now happening daily in Sweden whilst 20 years ago, private weapons didn’t exist. 

The best proof of a sound country and economy is the currency.

When I, as a younger man, came to Switzerland in the late 1960s, 1 Swiss Franc cost 1.10 Swedish Kroner. Today it costs 11.20 Swedish Kroner to buy one Franc. So the Krona has lost 90% in the last 50+ years. 

The Swiss Franc has of course been strong against all currencies. The dollar for example has lost 80% against the Franc over 50 years. 

THE SUPERIOR SWISS ECONOMY AND POLITICAL SYSTEM

But Switzerland has so much more than a strong currency and economy like:

• Low debt, normally no deficits
• Lowest crime rate in Europe and in the world (excluding some Middle East countries. It is one of the few countries where you can walk safely in any town at night. 
• Rule of Law 
• Direct Democracy allowing the population to have a referendum on virtually any topic. If the referendum is approved by a majority, it becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament but only by another referendum. This is totally unique in the world. 
• For example there will be a referendum on stopping Switzerland from becoming cashless
• Whilst all  EU countries have decided to confiscate Russian assets, Switzerland has declared: “The expropriation of private assets of lawful origin without compensation is not permissible under Swiss law,” the government said on Thursday. “The confiscation of frozen private assets is inconsistent with the constitution,” it added, and “violates Switzerland’s international commitments”.
• The standard and quality of everything is very high, services, construction, communications etc
• Switzerland also has beautiful nature, and excellent food. 

RISK OF WAR IN EUROPE

Some countries are worrying about a war in Europe. Except for a nuclear war which would be global, the risk of a war on the ground in Europe is in my view minimal. 

Russia has been invaded many times with the most famous examples being Karl XII of Sweden in the early 1700s, Napoleon in the early 1800s and Hitler in the 1940s. But Russia has never made any serious invasion into Europe.  Their interest lies primarily within their former empire. There was a brief entry into Finland at the beginning of WWII which lasted 3 months. Also at the end of WWII the Russians drove the invading Germans back to Berlin. 

So in my view, there is absolutely no reason to fear a Russian invasion of Europe. 

WEALTH PRESERVATION & GOLD

To protect your wealth against all the risks that I have outlined above is absolutely vital. Anyone invested in conventional assets like stocks, bonds and property, which have been artificially inflated by printing fake fiat money will in the coming 5+ years experience a major collapse of their wealth. 

As I already said, for anyone who has the ability to move to a country outside the US and the EU, that would be the safest option. It is likely that these areas will have the biggest problems both in the economy and the financial system as well as socially. In that region, Switzerland will be an important exception. 

Parts of South America like Uruguay should also avoid many of the problems in the West but sadly crime is high in many of these countries. Many Americans live in Central America but with the coming economic downturn, many countries will become less safe and also poor. In Asia, countries like Singapore and Thailand are very good but if there is a conflict between the US and China after a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, these areas could become more precarious. 

The problem with Australia and New Zealand is that they are highly indebted with big asset bubbles, especially in property. The socialist policies are not a plus either.  But the biggest risk is that a conflict in Taiwan could make these countries very risky with Chinese aspirations. 

Many people are moving to Dubai today for tax reasons. Russians are moving there since Dubai doesn’t sanction them. The problem with the UAE is that conflicts in the Middle East occur with regular intervals. 

For the ones who can’t move for job or family reasons, a second passport is advisable. 

But the most important asset protection is having wealth preservation assets outside your country of residence. 

There is no totally safe country today in an unsafe world. 

For investors who want to preserve their wealth, the best asset is physical gold followed by the more volatile silver. Gold and silver shares have had a terrible 35 years but the good companies should perform spectacularly.  Since most stocks are held by custodians within the financial system, they are not the same degree of wealth preservation as physical metals that you have direct control of. 

So my own preference would be to own physical gold and silver that I have direct control of and can withdraw or sell with very short notice. 

It is also important to deal with a company that can move your metals at very short notice if the security or geopolitical situation would necessitate it. 

Our gold vault in the Swiss Alps is the biggest private gold vault in the world and is also nuclear bomb proof which is totally unique. This is for bigger investors. We also store gold in Zurich. Our second preference is Singapore with the reservations I have mentioned. We also have vaults in many parts of the world and as I have stated, this can be important if the situation in the world changes and the gold/silver needs to be moved.

The world is now moving towards troubled times. 

Remember that family and friends are your most important asset and treasure them profoundly. 

Also, except for family and friends, many of the best things in life are free like books, nature, music, and sports.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:  +

END

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

end

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 6.8636

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8684

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32.74 PTS OR 1.00%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 833.77 PTS OR 4.21% 

2. Nikkei closed  UP 70.97 PTS OR 0.26%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  104.10 Euro RISES TO 1.0684 UP 108 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 135.39/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6915%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.511%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.716…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.431//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)

3j Gold at $1839.05//silver at: 21.02  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  12/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.09//

3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and  82 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 135.39/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .5000% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9354– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9993well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9362%  UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.920 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.8305 UP 3 BASIS PT

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,89…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.84415%  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rebound As China Economy Roars Back, Dollar Tumbles

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 08:05 AM

US equity rebounded from Tuesday’s month-end pension and CTA selling boosted by overnight news that China’s economy was roaring back sparked growth optimism and outweighed concerns about sticky inflation that could keep the Fed on its hawkish path. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% at 7:40 a.m. ET, still hovering below the key technical support level of 4,000, while Nasdaq futures edged higher, up 0.4%. Sentiment was boosted by a sharp drop in the dollar which saw the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded down 0.5% near session lows, the biggest drop since Feb. 14, as the yuan stormed higher. Treasuries edged lower, mirroring moves in Europe after German states saw annual inflation accelerate in February. Oil fell, while gold gained with Bitcoin.

Boosting sentiment today was news that China’s economy is showing signs of a stronger rebound after Covid restrictions were abandoned, with manufacturing posting its biggest improvement in more than a decade. The big economic news overnight came from China’s random number generator, and specifically the manufacturing PMI which rose to 52.6 last month, the highest reading since April 2012. The Caixin manufacturing PMI also rose into expansion, to 51.6 in February from 49.2 in January. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI increased markedly to 56.3 in February from 54.4 in January, driven by an acceleration in both construction and service sectors. Both the NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs pointed to improvement in the manufacturing sector in February, as firm operations and customer demand recovered in February after the LNY impact dissipated and the post-Covid recovery gathered steam.

Some observations from Goldman on the Chinese data:

• The China NBS purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) survey suggested manufacturing activity improved significantly in February. The NBS manufacturing PMI headline index jumped to 52.6 in February from 50.1 in January, the highest reading since April 2012. The improvement was broad-based. Among major sub-indexes of NBS manufacturing PMI, the output sub-index rebounded to 56.7 from 49.8, the new orders sub-index increased sharply to 54.1 from 50.9, and the employment sub-index rose to 50.2 from 47.7. The suppliers’ delivery times sub-index rose notably to 52.0 in February from 47.6 in January, implying faster supplier deliveries and artificially depressed the headline PMI. NBS commented that business operations and customer demand accelerated on the dissipation of LNY impact and the removal of zero-Covid policy.
• The Caixin manufacturing PMI was released later in the morning. The headline index rose to 51.6 in February from 49.2 in January, on the relaxation of Covid restrictions. Surveyed companies mentioned that the increase in production was linked to easing Covid restrictions and recovery of business operations and client demand. Sub-indexes in the Caixin manufacturing PMI suggest expansion in output in February (53.3 vs. 49.0 in January), rising new orders (52.9 vs. 49.3 in January), stronger employment (50.6 vs. 48.4 in January), rising inventories in raw inputs (49.3 vs. 48.4 in January), faster suppliers’ delivery (51.2 vs. 49.3 in January), slightly stronger inflationary pressures in input and output prices (51.7 and 50.3 vs. 52.0 and 49.7 in January, respectively), and stronger new export orders (52.2 vs. 48.7 in January).
• Both the NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs reported expansion in new orders and output, stronger new export orders and faster suppliers’ delivery. Both manufacturing supply and demand expanded in February, as production quickly normalized, and domestic and external demand improved after the Covid policy change.
• The official non-manufacturing PMI (comprised of the services and construction sectors) rose to 56.3 in February (vs. 54.4 in January), driven by an acceleration in both sectors. The services PMI increased to 55.6 (vs. 54.0 in January). According to the survey, the PMIs of transport service industries such as postal, airline and road transport services were above 60 in February. The construction PMI rose in February to 60.2 (vs. 56.4 in January). NBS noted that the growth of the construction sector (presumably infrastructure-related) accelerated in February.

“US index futures are trying to rebound this morning following stronger than expected China figures suggesting the economy is responding positively to the reopening,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.

In premarket trading, Novavax shares plummeted more than 25% putting the Covid-19 vaccine maker on track for its worst day in more than two months, after fourth-quarter revenue missed analyst estimates and the firm said there is substantial doubt over its future. Reata Pharmaceuticals surged in premarket trading after winning FDA approval for a new drug. Meanwhile, Tesla is set to hold an investor day on Wednesday, where Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is poised to unveil his latest and much-hyped “master plan” for the electric-vehicle maker. Several Wall Street analysts turned more bullish on the stock in anticipation of the event, but after a nearly 70% surge in just two months of this year, further gains may require more fireworks than are expected. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• US-listed Chinese stocks stage a strong rally in premarket trading, rebounding from a recent slump, after a slew of data showed that China’s economy is on track for a stronger recovery. Alibaba (BABA US) +6.1%, Baidu (BIDU US) +6.8%, JD.com (JD US) +4.9%, Bilibili (BILI US) +9%, Nio (NIO US) +6%, XPeng (XPEV US) +7.4%
• Rivian (RIVN US) shares fell 8.1% after the electric-truck maker’s 2023 production forecast fell short of expectations amid supply-chain snags. Analysts at Truist cut their price targets on the stock, but noted that the lower outlook was mainly down to cost cuts, which should benefit the company in the long run.
• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US) gains 20% after saying that the FDA doesn’t plan to hold an advisory committee for the approval of its experimental gene therapy to treat Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• Monster Beverage (MNST US) shares drop 3.8% after the energy drink maker reported fourth- quarter results, with analysts highlighting the miss on revenue and earnings per share.
• BrightSpire Capital (BRSP US) shares fall 14% after holder DigitalBridge offered 30.4 million Class A shares in the mortgage finance company at $6 apiece, representing a 19% discount to Tuesday’s close.

The strong rally seen at the start of 2023 in US equities is showing signs of petering out, as inflation is proving stickier than expected, prompting investors to grow wary of the potential for hawkish central bank dynamics. The S&P 500 declined 2.6% in February, paring much of the strong year-to-date gains, but JPMorgan strategists believe this doesn’t capture the sharp increase in rates since the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and that the index at risk of further losses as a divergence with bonds is yet to close. Other strategists – in fact most of Wall Street – are similarly bearish

“The market is increasingly coming around to a more bearish view and previously expected rate cuts are being taken out of the curve and terminal rates are moving up,” Marija Veitmane, strategist at State Street Bank told Bloomberg. “Investors perceive any strong economic data as evidence that the Fed’s job is not yet done” while any poor data is sign of an imminent recession.

“Since the start of February, bond markets have been pricing in higher rate hikes from the Fed, but mixed economic data and lower decline in fourth-quarter earnings kept stocks afloat,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swiss Group. “Yet, US yields are poised to trend higher, and that will at some point pull equity valuations lower. A setting where yields and stocks rise together is not sustainable.”

Meanwhile, economic indicators are still running hot in the US, with official data on Monday showing that orders placed with US factories for business equipment increased in January by the most in five months. Wednesday’s data on construction spending, ISM manufacturing, and light vehicle sales will be watched closely by investors for further signs that the Federal Reserve might take as reason to tighten monetary policy more aggressively, or extend high interest rates for longer.

As a result, bond traders no longer view the odds of a Fed rate cut this year as better than-even, a shift from what they were expecting just a month ago. Market expectations also see the European Central Bank raising rates through February 2024, with a 4% ECB terminal rate fully priced. “February has poured cold water on hopes that policy makers may quickly tame inflation towards target,” Generali Investments strategists wrote in their monthly outlook. “We now have even higher peak rates in our books.” Watch this sentiment reverse with a bang the moment February jobs comes far below expectations next Friday..

On the other hand, contrary to expectations by Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson who has effectively staked his carrer on a forecast for a collapse in corporate profits, company earnings have proved more resilient than expected, even as traders question how long this can be sustained, given rising costs and the recessionary backdrop. In a sign that margins may yet be squeezed, asset manager Janus Henderson believes that dividend returns may be set to slow. Portfolio manager Jane Shoemake said she expects global dividend payouts to rise 2.3% to $1.6 trillion in 2023, a slower pace of growth compared with 8.4% last year, amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks.

European stocks are ahead, tracking gains in Asia after Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to its highest in almost 11 years. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.1% with miners, autos and consumer products the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Aston Martin surges 22%, climbing to the highest since June, after the carmaker released results that analysts say showed a strong finish to the year with guidance for 2023 positive
• Moncler shares jumped as much as 8.5%, their biggest rise since November, after the luxury group’s full-year results beat expectations and Citigroup noted upbeat comments about its outlook
• Weir Group shares rise as much as 8.6%, hitting the highest since February 2021, with analysts saying the results from the mining-equipment firm are strong across the board
• Adidas shares jump as much as 3% after the sportswear brand was upgraded at HSBC, which says the company is likely to “embark on an ambitious path to reconquer market share”
• Ferrovial gains as much as 2.4% after the operator of London’s Heathrow Airport reported full-year results and a plan to shift domicile to the Netherlands and eventually apply for a US listing
• Euronext shares gain as much as 7.8% after the exchange operator withdrew its offer for investment platform Allfunds, a deal that analysts had questioned
• BNP Paribas shares dropped as much as 4.6%, their biggest decline since June, after Belgium’s Societe Federale de Participations & d’Investissement announced the sale of a 2.7% stake
• Just Eat Takeaway falls as much as 9.3% after failing to offer a gross transaction value forecast for 2023, a move analysts say looks disappointing after peer Delivery Hero did the same

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were off to a strong start for March after China’s factory activity topped a decade high, spurring investor optimism ahead of an upcoming meeting of the nation’s political leaders. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.6%, the most since Jan. 9, lifted by communication and consumer discretionary shares. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped more than 5%, bouncing back from a recent selloff as strong manufacturing data underscores an acceleration in economic recovery.

“The latest economic data suggest China’s reopening has been working well,” said Nicolas Wang, senior equity advisor at Union Bancaire Privée.  Hopes that a stimulus plan will be announced at the National People’s Congress have been somewhat priced into stocks, according to Union Bancaire’s Wang. Economists expect Premier Li Keqiang — who will deliver his last government work report on Sunday when the annual event kicks off — to outline a target for gross domestic product growth for this year of higher than 5%. Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan advanced after traders returned from a two-day break, while Japan also edged higher. South Korean market was shut for a holiday.  Asian stocks on Tuesday capped their worst month since September amid concerns over higher US interest rates and ongoing geopolitical risks. Traders no longer view the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year as better-than-even, a shift from what they were expecting just a month ago.

Japanese equities rose, erasing early losses, after gauges of Chinese manufacturing beat economists’ expectations. The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 1,997.81, while the Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 27,516.53. The yen dipped about 0.1% against the dollar. Mitsui & Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.4%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,254 rose and 792 fell, while 114 were unchanged. “In addition to the cheaper yen, Japanese stocks are also benefiting from the rise in China and Hong Kong markets after the release of China’s PMI data,” said Yasuhiko Hirakawa, head of an investment department at Rakuten Investment Management. “Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were higher previously expected, and there is positive sentiment toward the strong recovery of China’s economy.”

Australian stocks edged lower with the S&P/ASX 200 index ending 0.1% lower after a volatile session as investors assessed a slowdown in Australia’s inflation and economic growth, and how the data will impact monetary policy.  The benchmark closed at 7.251.60 after swinging between gains and losses, weighed down by banks and property names.  Australia’s monthly inflation eased in January to 7.4%, sending the currency and government bond yields lower. Meanwhile, the economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the final three months of 2022, in a sign that the Reserve Bank’s rapid interest-rate increases are beginning to weigh on activity. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,876.35.

Stocks in India snapped an eight-day drop, the longest streak in more than three years, as investors looked for value after major benchmarks fell for a third straight month in February.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 59,411.08 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar measure. All of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-guages closed higher, led by metal and commodity related companies. All 10 companies that are part of the ports-to-power Adani conglomerate ended higher for the first time since the scathing report by US short seller Hindenburg Research was published on Jan. 24. The group is conducting a three-day roadshow this week to restore investor confidence. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 0.9%. All but two of 30 shares in the Sensex index rose.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.5%, the most since Feb. 14, as the greenback weakened against all its Group- of-10 peers, while the New Zealand dollar was the best performer.

• The New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains, rising as much as 1.3% to $0.6263, the highest since Feb. 17, and the Australian dollar swung to a gain after China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to the highest in more than a decade and exceeded economists’ forecasts. The Aussie had dropped earlier and bonds advanced following slower-than-expected local inflation numbers.
  • China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 last month, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. Both indexes beat economists’ expectations.  A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. Both indexes beat economists’ expectations
• The euro gained as much as 0.8% to $1.0662 and European bonds dropped, led by the front end, after stronger inflation figures from Germany. Options traders scaled back their bearish bets on the euro amid money-market wagers that the ECB’s terminal rate will be higher than previously expected
• The pound pared an advance and gilts erased an earlier drop as traders trimmed bets on the peak in the BOE’s key rate. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned markets against assuming a rates move in either direction, while acknowledging the impact that monetary tightening is having on the economy

In rates, treasury futures narrowly mixed after paring losses during European morning, following wider gains across gilts where front-end outperforms. Treasuries curve pivots around a little-changed 7-year sector with long-end yields richer by more than 1bp vs Tuesday’s close and 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter. 10-year TSY yields are little changed around 3.92% day with gilts outperforming by 3.5bp in the sector.  US curve extends Tuesday’s flattening move post month-end. Block flattener in futures adds to long-end outperformance over European session.

In Europe, Bund futures extended losses after the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia saw annual inflation accelerate in February, suggesting an upside surprise in the national reading later today. German 10-year yields are up 6bps while the UK equivalent falls 1bps. Gilts outperform following comments from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, who said Wednesday that “nothing is decided” on the future path of rates.

In commodities, Crude futures decline with WTI falling roughly 1.0% to trade near $76.25. Spot gold adds around 0.3% to trade near $1,832.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs for February and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Kashkari, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel and Visco. Finally, earnings releases include Salesforce and Lowe’s.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,983.00
• MXAP up 1.5% to 160.37
• MXAPJ up 2.0% to 521.54
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 27,516.53
• Topix up 0.2% to 1,997.81
• Hang Seng Index up 4.2% to 20,619.71
• Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,312.35
• Sensex up 0.8% to 59,414.51
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,251.60
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,412.85
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 461.44
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.71%
• Euro up 0.6% to $1.0642
• Brent Futures down 0.3% to $83.21/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,832.20
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.40% to 104.45

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• China’s NBS PMIs for Feb were very strong, with manufacturing coming in at 52.6 (up from 50.1 in Jan and ahead of the St’s 50.6 forecast) and non-manufacturing climbing to 56.3 (up from 54.4 in January and above the St’s 54.9 forecast). BBG
• After three years of turbulence under the Covid pandemic, China’s leaders are expected to lay out economic goals to get growth back on track, restore confidence and avoid a build-up of financial risks. Economists expect Premier Li Keqiang — who will deliver his last government work report on Sunday when the annual National People’s Congress kicks off — to outline a target for gross domestic product growth for this year of higher than 5%. That’s after the economy expanded just 3% last year, missing the official goal by a wide margin. BBG
• US M2 money supply fell 1.7% Y/Y in January, the largest decline on record and the first time it has contracted in two consecutive months (but, money supply is still 39% higher than it was before COVID, which means the Fed still has plenty of work ahead of it). Barron’s
• Demand for U.S. workers shows signs of slowing, a long-anticipated development that is showing up in private-sector job postings even while official government reports indicate the labor market keeps running hot. ZipRecruiter Inc. and Recruit Holdings Co., two large online recruiting companies, say their data show the number of job postings is declining more than Labor Department reports of job openings. Investors recently hammered shares of those companies after disappointing earnings reports. WSJ
• The European Central Bank should reach its peak interest rate by September, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. It would be unwise to expect the ECB to quickly reduce borrowing costs after their eventual peak, according to Governing Council member Madis Muller: BBG
• Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said he supports a more rapid reversal of the ECB’s bond-buying to help tackle inflation, with more large interest-rate increases also a possibility beyond a planned hike this month: BBG
• The White House is coming under increased pressure to give F16 fighter jets to Ukraine (the process to deliver the jets and provide training for them is a long one, and many feel it should be started now). Wa Po
• The prices of new homes in 100 Chinese cities held steady in February versus January having fallen for seven consecutive months, data showed on Wednesday, as a flurry of property market easing measures improved buyer confidence. The flat reading followed a 0.02% decline in January from December, showed data from the China Index Academy. RTRS
• EU negotiators reached a deal to establish a green bond standard, giving investors long-awaited clarity that their money is aligned with the region’s climate ambitions: BBG
• UK house prices fell at their sharpest annual pace since 2012 last month, steepening a downturn sparked by a jump in mortgage rates. The average cost of a home fell 1.1% from a year ago last month after a gain of the same size in January, Nationwide Building Society said Wednesday. It marked the sixth consecutive monthly drop in prices and the first annual decline since June 2020: BBG
• Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections will take place as planned on May 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said, quashing speculation over whether the vote would be postponed following the two deadly earthquakes last month: BBG
• Economists expect China Premier Li Keqiang — who will deliver his last government work report on Sunday when the annual National People’s Congress kicks off — to outline a target for GDP growth for this year of higher than 5%. That’s after the economy expanded just 3% last year, missing the official goal by a wide margin
• Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a close Russian ally, in talks watched closely for signs that Beijing is expanding coordination with Moscow and its supporters in their standoff with the West
• BOJ Board Member Junko Nakagawa says that she wants to watch financial markets for a while longer to discern the impact of December’s adjustments to the BOJ’s yield curve control program
• The US crude buildup continues. Inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week, API data indicated, in what would be a 10th straight gain if confirmed by the EIA later. In fuel markets, gasoline and distillate stockpiles both eased. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region digested a slew of data releases including the fastest pace of expansion for Chinese Manufacturing PMI in more than a decade. ASX 200 was initially pressured by weakness in telecoms and financials, but later pared the losses as the miss on quarterly GDP and softer monthly CPI data effectively eased some of the hawkish pressure on the RBA. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with price action confined to a narrow range around the 27,500 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were supported by the blockbuster official Chinese PMI data which printed its highest since April 2012 and Caixin Manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion territory. Furthermore, a surge in tech spearheaded the outperformance in Hong Kong, while advances in the mainland were somewhat moderated by US-China frictions as the Biden administration considers revoking export licenses issued to US suppliers for sales to Huawei and with the US also barring chipmakers from expanding capacity in China for 10 years if they are to receive some of the federal funding from the CHIPS Act. US equity futures (ES Unch.) were uneventful but moved off lows as sentiment in Asia gradually improved

Top Asian News

• Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun said proactive fiscal policy will be more forceful, while he added that China’s economy will continue its rebound and local governments will see better fiscal conditions.
• BoJ JGB market survey shows the index measuring market functioning deteriorating to -64 for February (prev. -51, Nov.), the lowest on record.
• China’s economy is recovering faster than expected by top officials, suggesting that the government might be restrained in rolling out new stimulus measures this year, according to Bloomberg sources.

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of the APAC handover following strong Chinese PMIs; though, the region awaits mainland German prelim. CPI. Sectors are mixed with Basic Resources outperforming given benchmark pricing while Real Estate names lag following earnings and as yields continue to rise. Stateside, futures are similarly in the green though magnitudes are incrementally more modest given key data points loom. Tesla (TSLA) is reportedly preparing a revamp of its Model Y, via Reuters citing sources; named “project Juniper” with a production start target of October 2024; revamp reportedly includes the exterior and interior of the Model Y. Reminder, Tesla is holding an investor day on March 1st at its Texas facility.

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey says he would caution against suggesting either that the BoE is done with hiking rates or that BoE will inevitably need to do more; have to monitor carefully how the tightening already done is working its way through the economy. Further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided. The incoming data will add to the overall picture of the economy and the outlook for inflation, and that will inform our policy decisions. If BoE does too little with rates now, BoE will only have to do more later on. Must ensure that the situation does not get worse through homemade inflation taking hold.. Click here for more detail alongside analysis & reaction.
• ECB’s Villeroy expects growth in France to be slightly positive this year, desirable to reach terminal by the Summer i.e. September at the latest. France’s public debt ratio is not decreasing, unlike that of other major countries within the EZ.
• ECB’s Nagel says further significant rate hikes beyond March may be needed, favours a stepper reduction of the APP portfolio from July. Energy price decline has no essential bearing on the ECB’s medium-term inflation projections.

FX

• Dollar knocked back as punchy Chinese PMIs give the Yuan enough impetus to scale chart resistance, DXY down to 104.270 from just over 105.000, USD/CNY and USD/CNH both under 6.9000 and 200 DMAs.
• Sterling lags as BoE Governor Bailey sounds a word of caution about further hikes or calling time on the tightening cycle.
• Cable sub-1.2050 and EUR/GBP 0.8850+ as EUR/USD extends beyond 1.0665 vs Buck.
• Aussie underpinned by Yuan revival, but gains capped by soft GDP and CPI data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9400 vs exp. 6.9409 (prev. 6.0519)

Fixed Income

• EGBs are softer on the session given initially hot German State CPIs and commentary from ECB’s Nagel; however, Gilts have seen a marked bounce in the wake of BoE’s Bailey.
• Specifically for EGBs, Bunds dropped to a 131.86 trough with the 10yr yield at a fresh 2.72% YTD peak, though they are off-worst given the readacross from Gilts and as the State CPIs overall are more in-line with the prior.
• For the UK, Bailey’s remarks prompted marked two-way action with Gilts/STIRs eventually focusing on the dovish-elements, lifting Gilts to a 100.30+ peak vs a 99.37 initial low.
• Stateside, USTs remain soft within 111.08+ to 111.18 parameters ahead of Final PMIs, ISM Manufacturing and Fed’s 2023 voter Kashkari; yield curve elevated with action much more pronounced at the short-end.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have given up initial gains after Tuesday’s firmer settlement, with the initial more tentative European tone vs Asia and the Private Inventory build capping upside.
• Specifically, WTI Apr and Brent May are at the lower-end of USD 76.21-77.74/bbl and USD 82.68-84.20/bbl parameters respectively.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.2mln (exp. +0.5mln), Cushing +0.5mln, Gasoline -1.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillates -0.3mln (exp. -0.5mln).
• Nat Gas futures are firmer in Europe and the US, with technicians focusing on Henry Hub’s 21-DMA while TTF reclaims some last ground after recently dipping below EUR 50/MWh.
• Spot gold and metals more broadly are modestly firmer, benefitting from the softer USD while base metals outperform their precious counterparts following China’s strong PMI releases.

Geopolitics

• Turkish President Erdogan “indicates” that Presidential and Parliamentary elections will be held on May 14th.
• “Russia is concerned about information that a Kiev provocation using radioactive materials could take place near Transnistria”, according to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman cited by Tass.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications -5.7%, prior -13.3%
• 09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.8, prior 47.8
• 10:00: Feb. ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.0, prior 47.4
  • Feb. ISM Employment, prior 50.6
  • Feb. ISM New Orders, prior 42.5
  • Feb. ISM Prices Paid, est. 46.5, prior 44.5
• 10:00: Jan. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to March. Since it’s the start of a new month, we’ll shortly be releasing our regular performance review looking at how different assets performed over February. It was a pretty bad month on the whole, with losses across equities, credit, sovereign bonds and commodities. That came amidst growing concern about inflation, which led investors to ramp up their expectations for central bank rate hikes. For bonds in particular it was an awful month, with Bloomberg’s global aggregate bond index seeing its worst February performance since its inception back in 1990 after seeing its best January the month before. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.

That theme of the month continued into the final day yesterday, with another bond selloff thanks to European inflation data that came in hotter than expected once again. Specifically, French inflation hit a multi-decade high of +7.2% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +7.0% expected), whilst Spanish inflation unexpectedly rose to +6.1% using the same definition (vs. +5.7% expected). This is clearly not the direction that central banks or investors were expecting them to be moving at this point, so all eyes will now be on today’s German CPI release to see if that’s replicated, ahead of the full Euro Area release tomorrow.

For Germany DB continue to expect the headline rate to fall substantially during 2023. But core inflation is expected to remain elevated during H1 2023 (probably averaging around 5.5%) before starting to ease only gradually in H2. Our economists worry that there remains the risk that overly strong wage outcomes and second round effects keep core inflation in the 5%-plus range for much longer. With regards today’s preliminary print, DB expect the CPI index to rise by c. 0.8% mom, keeping the year-over-year rate unchanged at 8.7%. Core inflation at 5.9% YoY, (+0.7% mom – both DB) will be the main focus. See DB’s Sebastian Becker’s preview and overall German inflation views here. Just after we go to print, but before you read this, the North Rhine Westphalia region will have just published their inflation numbers so have a look out for that as it will give you clues for the national numbers out a few hours later.

Overnight we’ve seen a decent change in momentum for risk as upbeat China data has revived optimism for the reopening trade that has been flagging of late. As I type, the Hang Seng (+3.37%) is sharply up buoyed by a rally in Chinese listed tech stocks with the CSI (+1.36%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.7%) and the Nikkei (+0.16%) all trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, markets in South Korea are closed today for a holiday. In overnight trading, US equity futures have bounced from half a percent losses to be just positive as I type.

The market bounce has been due to the official China manufacturing index growing at the fastest pace in more than a decade with the index advancing to 52.6 in February (v/s 50.6 expected) from 50.1 in January indicating that the world’s second biggest economy improved markedly after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in December. At the same time, the official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 (v/s 54.9 expected) from 54.4 in January, notching the fastest pace of expansion since March 2021. The improvement was seen in the nation’s private gauge of manufacturing activity as the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.6 in February (ending six months of contraction) from 49.2 in January. Elsewhere, Australia’s GDP came in weaker than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022 with the economy expanding +0.5% (v/s +0.8% expected), down from the prior’s quarter’s revised reading of +0.7%, hinting that rate hikes are now weighing on the local economy.

Back to yesterday, and with inflation proving more resilient than expected yesterday, investors dialled up the amount of rate hikes they’re expecting from the ECB this year. In fact, overnight index swaps are now pricing in +149bps of further rate hikes by year-end, which implies a very significant chance that the deposit rate will climb as high as 3.9%. That’s pretty astonishing when you consider it was only a year ago (shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine) that there were genuine doubts about whether the ECB would be able to hike at all, and 10yr bund yields briefly moved back into negative territory.

We’ve come a long way since then, with yesterday seeing yields on 10yr bunds (+6.9bps) close at a post-2011 high of 2.65%, even if it was above 2.70% at the intraday peak. It was a similar story across the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs (+6.6bps) at their highest since 2012, and those on 10yr gilts (+2.1bps) at their highest since Liz Truss’ time as PM. Meanwhile at the front-end, 2yr German yields were up +6.3bps to 3.137%, which is something we haven’t seen since 2008. So a day of records across the board.

Over in the US, pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate was up to a new closing high of 5.424% for the September meeting, with the July meeting nearly identically priced. That drove a further repricing of the front end, with the 2yr yield finishing up +3.75bps to 4.816% – its highest closing level since 2007. There was a significant volatility into month-end, with 2yr yields as low as 4.785% just over an hour before the close. 10yr yields finished up +0.6bps to 3.920% (and are +1.17 bps higher overnight), after earlier breaking above the 3.98% mark intraday for the first time since November. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee made his first public speech since taking the position in January. He did not explicitly comment on monetary policy, but warned that policymakers should be careful to take too much of a signal from financial markets.

This backdrop on the rates side meant that equities struggled to gain much momentum, with the S&P 500 moving between small gains and losses all session until finally selling off in the last 2 hours of trading to finish down -0.30% and near the lows of the day. That left the index -2.61% lower over the month as a whole. The losses were driven by a mix of defensives (Utilities -1.7%) and more cyclical sectors (Energy -1.4%). Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.04%) and the FANG+ index (+0.08%) of megacap tech stocks were able to just finish above flat, while the Dow Jones ended the day down -0.71%, bringing its YTD decline to -1.48% now. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.32%) posted a modest decline, but the broader outperformance of European equities (particularly in the south) held into February, with Italy’s FTSE MIB advancing a further +0.12% yesterday, thus bringing its YTD gain to +15.91%.

Another factor that didn’t help on the rates side yesterday were the increases across a wide range of commodities. For instance, Brent crude oil prices were up +1.81% to $83.89/bbl, just as WTI advanced +1.81% to $76.61/bbl. It was much the same story for metals too, with copper prices up +1.75%, and gold advancing +0.54%. Clearly the European inflation numbers were the main factor behind the rates moves, but declining commodity prices have been a tailwind behind the falling inflation numbers over recent months, and any sign of a reversal would be bad news when it comes to the broader inflation picture.

Back in the US, we had a few lower-tier data prints yesterday ahead of the ISM prints this week. The pattern was generally an underwhelming one for the February releases, with the MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly falling to 43.6 (vs. 45.5 expected). We also had the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index, which was another that unexpectedly fell to -16 (vs. -5 expected). Bear in mind the last two occasions it got as low as that were during the Covid-19 pandemic and the GFC, with the latest reading being the lowest since May 2020. And finally, there was the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for February, which fell to 102.9 (vs. 108.5 expected), with expectations falling to a 7-month low of 69.7. Could higher yields over the last month have made an impact?

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs for February and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US. Otherwise, we’ll get Germany’s CPI and unemployment for February, and UK mortgage approvals for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Kashkari, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel and Visco. Finally, earnings releases include Salesforce and Lowe’s.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities and Yuan bid on Chinese PMIs, Bailey boosts Gilts; US ISM & Kashkari ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 06:43 AM

• Both European and US equity futures are firmer, in a continuation of the data-inspired APAC handover; US ISM & Fed speak ahead
• Specifically, the data released included the fastest pace of expansion for Chinese Manufacturing PMI in more than a decade.
• DXY has been pressured by marked Yuan action, while GBP lags post-Bailey and EUR outperforms ahead of German mainland CPI.
• EGBs are softer on the session, give state CPIs & Nagel, though the complex is off lows after Bailey sparked marked Gilt upside.
• Crude has given up initial gains while metals glean support from the softer USD and APAC data.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German mainland CPI (Prelim.), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Speeches from Fed’s Kashkari, Earnings from Salesforce & Hilton.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of the APAC handover following strong Chinese PMIs; though, the region awaits mainland German prelim. CPI.
• Sectors are mixed with Basic Resources outperforming given benchmark pricing while Real Estate names lag following earnings and as yields continue to rise.
• Stateside, futures are similarly in the green though magnitudes are incrementally more modest given key data points loom.
• Tesla (TSLA) is reportedly preparing a revamp of its Model Y, via Reuters citing sources; named “project Juniper” with a production start target of October 2024; revamp reportedly includes the exterior and interior of the Model Y. Reminder, Tesla is holding an investor day on March 1st at its Texas facility.
• Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW) Q4 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.28 (exp. 2.21), Revenue 22.445bln (exp. 22.69bln); FY EPS view 13.60-14.00 (exp. 13.73), FY Revenue view 88-90bln (exp. 97.34bln).
• Turkish President Erdogan “indicates” that Presidential and Parliamentary elections will be held on May 14th.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar knocked back as punchy Chinese PMIs give the Yuan enough impetus to scale chart resistance, DXY down to 104.270 from just over 105.000, USD/CNY and USD/CNH both under 6.9000 and 200 DMAs.
• Sterling lags as BoE Governor Bailey sounds a word of caution about further hikes or calling time on the tightening cycle.
• Cable sub-1.2050 and EUR/GBP 0.8850+ as EUR/USD extends beyond 1.0665 vs Buck.
• Aussie underpinned by Yuan revival, but gains capped by soft GDP and CPI data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9400 vs exp. 6.9409 (prev. 6.0519)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• EGBs are softer on the session given initially hot German State CPIs and commentary from ECB’s Nagel; however, Gilts have seen a marked bounce in the wake of BoE’s Bailey.
• Specifically for EGBs, Bunds dropped to a 131.86 trough with the 10yr yield at a fresh 2.72% YTD peak, though they are off-worst given the readacross from Gilts and as the State CPIs overall are more in-line with the prior.
• For the UK, Bailey’s remarks prompted marked two-way action with Gilts/STIRs eventually focusing on the dovish-elements, lifting Gilts to a 100.30+ peak vs a 99.37 initial low.
• Stateside, USTs remain soft within 111.08+ to 111.18 parameters ahead of Final PMIs, ISM Manufacturing and Fed’s 2023 voter Kashkari; yield curve elevated with action much more pronounced at the short-end.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks have given up initial gains after Tuesday’s firmer settlement, with the initial more tentative European tone vs Asia and the Private Inventory build capping upside.
• Specifically, WTI Apr and Brent May are at the lower-end of USD 76.21-77.74/bbl and USD 82.68-84.20/bbl parameters respectively.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.2mln (exp. +0.5mln), Cushing +0.5mln, Gasoline -1.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillates -0.3mln (exp. -0.5mln).
• Nat Gas futures are firmer in Europe and the US, with technicians focusing on Henry Hub’s 21-DMA while TTF reclaims some last ground after recently dipping below EUR 50/MWh.
• Spot gold and metals more broadly are modestly firmer, benefitting from the softer USD while base metals outperform their precious counterparts following China’s strong PMI releases.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey says he would caution against suggesting either that the BoE is done with hiking rates or that BoE will inevitably need to do more; have to monitor carefully how the tightening already done is working its way through the economy. Further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided. The incoming data will add to the overall picture of the economy and the outlook for inflation, and that will inform our policy decisions. If BoE does too little with rates now, BoE will only have to do more later on. Must ensure that the situation does not get worse through homemade inflation taking hold.. Click here for more detail alongside analysis & reaction.
• ECB’s Villeroy expects growth in France to be slightly positive this year, desirable to reach terminal by the Summer i.e. September at the latest. France’s public debt ratio is not decreasing, unlike that of other major countries within the EZ.
• ECB’s Nagel says further significant rate hikes beyond March may be needed, favours a stepper reduction of the APP portfolio from July. Energy price decline has no essential bearing on the ECB’s medium-term inflation projections.

DATA RECAP

• German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Feb) 8.5% (Prev. 8.3%); MM (Feb) 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%). The mainland German CPI is expected at 8.5% (prev. 8.7%) YY and 0.6% (prev. 1.0%) MM; HICP expected at 9.0% (prev. 9.2%) YY and 0.7% (prev. 0.5%) MM. Due for release at 13:00GMT/08:00ET. Overall, the skew of state CPIs have been firmer/in-line with their priors.
• EU S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI (Feb) 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)
• UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Manufacturing PMI FNL (Feb) 49.3 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.2)
• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Feb) 8.4% (Prev. 8.0%)
• UK Nationwide house price YY (Feb) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 1.1%); MM (Feb) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.6%)
• UK Mortgage Lending (Jan) 2.541B GB vs. Exp. 2.95B GB (Prev. 3.238B GB, Rev. 3.082B GB); Approvals (Jan) 39.637k vs. Exp. 38.0k (Prev. 35.612k, Rev. 40.54k)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Biden plans a relentless focus on the economy during his re-election race, even as much of the public doubts the country’s direction, according to Axios.
• A senior US Treasury Official reportedly travelled to Beijing, China recently, via WSJ citing sources; meeting was not aimed at setting up a trip for Treasury Secretary Yellen, meeting described as “constructive and friendly”.
• Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

• Turkish President Erdogan “indicates” that Presidential and Parliamentary elections will be held on May 14th.
• “Russia is concerned about information that a Kiev provocation using radioactive materials could take place near Transnistria”, according to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman cited by Tass.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin has experienced marked upside to a test of the USD 24k mark from a circa. USD 23k base, though it is yet to surpass the figure and remains someway shy of recent USD 25k+ parameters.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region digested a slew of data releases including the fastest pace of expansion for Chinese Manufacturing PMI in more than a decade.
• ASX 200 was initially pressured by weakness in telecoms and financials, but later pared the losses as the miss on quarterly GDP and softer monthly CPI data effectively eased some of the hawkish pressure on the RBA.
• Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with price action confined to a narrow range around the 27,500 level.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were supported by the blockbuster official Chinese PMI data which printed its highest since April 2012 and Caixin Manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion territory. Furthermore, a surge in tech spearheaded the outperformance in Hong Kong, while advances in the mainland were somewhat moderated by US-China frictions as the Biden administration considers revoking export licenses issued to US suppliers for sales to Huawei and with the US also barring chipmakers from expanding capacity in China for 10 years if they are to receive some of the federal funding from the CHIPS Act.
• US equity futures (ES Unch.) were uneventful but moved off lows as sentiment in Asia gradually improved

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun said proactive fiscal policy will be more forceful, while he added that China’s economy will continue its rebound and local governments will see better fiscal conditions.
• BoJ JGB market survey shows the index measuring market functioning deteriorating to -64 for February (prev. -51, Nov.), the lowest on record.
• China’s economy is recovering faster than expected by top officials, suggesting that the government might be restrained in rolling out new stimulus measures this year, according to Bloomberg sources.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.6 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.1); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 56.3 vs. Exp. 55.0 (Prev. 54.4)
• Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) 56.4 (Prev. 52.9); Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 49.2)
• Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q4) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%); YY SA (Q4) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 5.9%)
• Australian CPI YY (Jan) 7.4% vs Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 8.4%)

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32,74 PTS OR 1.00%    //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 833.77 PTS OR 4.21%      /The Nikkei closed UP 70.93%  PTS OR .26%          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN  0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8636 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8684//    /Oil UP TO 76.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.92   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/COVID

3c CHINA /

CHINA/

Parking Lot Of Container Ships Idle Off China On Recovery Bet

TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 10:25 PM

The global economy is proving resilient in the first two months of 2023. Supply chain snarls are easing, while demand conditions are neither hot nor cold. The post–Covid-19 recovery is on shaky ground as the world awaits a China recovery. 

Bloomberg pointed out that “a large number” of container ships are “positioned near China, waiting for a renewed flow of exports as the world’s second-largest economy recovers from Covid Zero restrictions.” 

“It makes sense to be close to the main export centers, to be in a ready-to-go position,” Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at maritime consultant Drewry, said. 

Drewry data shows unused vessel capacity began inching up in the second half of 2022 and has since hit the highest level since late 2020. Source: Bloomberg 

A slowdown in shipping comes as major central banks sent interest rates sky-high to tackle out-of-control inflation. This has led to falling global demand for goods and services. 

Spot container freight rates have crashed in the last year. Source: Bloomberg 

Many investors have bet on a Chinese recovery since Beijing disbanded Covid restrictions late last year. But on Tuesday, the Chinese Communist Party warned the foundation of economic recovery is not yet solid, according to Reuters. 

After a three-day meeting, a communique released by the Communist Party’s Central Committee said the economy still faces triple pressures, including demand contraction, supply shock, and sliding expectations. 

FreightWaves pointed out last week, “an unprecedented flood of new container ships is about to enter service.” This would further increase unused vessel capacity as a welcoming sign of lower container rates. 

One thing is clear: The world has entered a period of immense economic uncertainty with no definitive timeline for a robust China recovery. Plus, ultra-hawkish central banks worldwide are dampening demand. 

Frank Andersen, head of Asia at maritime data provider Shipfix, believes a rebound in vessel use is coming, though “these will slowly get activated, although we could see that taking a few more months.” 

Perhaps the China recovery everyone has been expecting won’t be as strong as initially thought. 

END

CHINA

It sure looks like China is going to have a severe demographic problem just like Japan

(zerohedge)

China Scrambles To Save Plummeting Birth Rate With Pregnancy Perks

TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 11:45 PM

Last month Chinese officials announced that 2022 marked the first drop in total population in six decades, after 9.56 million people were born vs. 10.41 million who died.

Now, the country faces a population decline combined with a long-running rise in life expectancy, which could result in a wide-ranging demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy.

In order to counter the plummeting fertility rate, Chinese officials have loosened the country’s one-child policy, and offered incentives for families to reproduce – but nothing has worked.

Some provinces are trying to go further – including one which now encourages people to have as many babies as they want, even if they are unmarried. In most parts of the country, single mothers are denied government benefits often offered to married couples.

In the tech hub city of Hangzhou, home to Alibaba, the government is now giving parents of a third child 20,000 yuan, or $2,900 as a one-off subsidy. A second child will net parents around $720.

In South China, the city of Wenzhou is planning to offer new parents around $400 in subsidies per child, while the northeastern city of Shenyang is offering up to $72 per month until a child is three years old.

In Shanghai and Shanxi, officials have increased the number of paid marriage leave days – time off granted to couples if they get married – from three days to up to 30 days, according to the People’s Daily Health.

The problem, however, is that many young Chinese adults don’t want large families, and are pushing back on all sorts of incentives to reproduce in one of the most expensive countries in the world to raise a child, the NY Times reports, noting that “such incentives do little to address anxieties about supporting their aging parents and managing the rising costs of education, housing and health care.”

“The fundamental problem is not that people cannot have children, but that they cannot afford it,” said 26-year-old Sichuan nurse, Lu Yi, adding that she would need to earn at least double her currently monthly salary of around $1,200 (8,000 yuan) to even consider children.

Many countries around the world — from Japan to Russia to Sweden — have confronted the same demographic challenge, and their attempts to incentivize new babies with subsidies and other tactics have had a limited impact. But China has aged faster than other countries. The often harshly enforced one-child policy, which was aimed at slowing population growth, precipitated the steep decline in births and led to a generational shift in attitudes around family sizes.

Efforts by the ruling Communist Party to raise fertility rates — by permitting all couples to have two children in 2016, then three in 2021 — have struggled to gain traction. The new policy in Sichuan drew widespread attention because it essentially disregards birth limits altogether, showing how the demographic crisis is nudging the party to slowly relinquish its iron grip over the reproductive rights of its citizens. –NY Times

“The two-child policy failed. The three-child policy failed,” said University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher, Yi Fuxian, who studies Chinese population trends. “This is the natural next step.”

Beijing, we have a problem…

In a 2022 survey of around 20,000 younger Chinese people between the ages of 18 to 25, two-thirds said they don’t want children – with demographers suggesting that the pressures and costs associated with the Chinese education system is a major factor. They have suggested things such as shortening schooling by two years, and getting rid of the competitive exam to enter high school.

Meanwhile, with women pressured to step into careers instead of marriage, getting Chinese millennials to overcome issues such as costs might only be the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the current challenge.

“You need to go back to the things that have made marriage rates so low,” Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten, who specializes in population policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told Insider last year.

“If women are feeling: ‘This is such a bad move for my career or my life that I’m going to push it back as long as possible,’ then maybe that’s a symptom of other challenges, blockages, or malfunctions in society

END

BELARUS/CHINA

The West vs East axis is fully formed

(zerohedge)

Lukashenko Backs Xi’s Peace Plan In State Visit, Urges Unifying Russia-China-Belarus Industrial Policies

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 10:45 AM

Washington’s pressure campaign to dissuade China from deepening its ties with Moscow continues to come to naught, and America’s lack of influence over the situation was on full display Wednesday as Belarusian president and close Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko traveled to Beijing in a state visit.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping greeted Lukashenko in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, after which they discussed deepening their countries’ “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership”. During the visit the Belarusian leader received the honors of a ceremonial 21-gun salute, performed by China’s People’s Liberation Army in Tiananmen Square.

“The China-Belarus friendship is unbreakably strong,” Xi told Lukashenko, according to Xinhua. He’s the first European leader to visit China on a state visit since Xi secured his third term last year, CNN has noted. “China and Belarus are the joint guarantors of international justice,” Xi declared..

Crucially, some of these areas may include dual purpose tech development, usable in the defense industry. This is sure to grab the Pentagon’s and Biden administration’s attention, especially after the past week saw Secretary of State Antony Blinken issue repeat warnings against China getting in bed with Russia militarily. But now it seems Lukashenko is precisely calling for greater coordination in this area, albeit perhaps under the radar, given the appeal for unifying industries. The Kremlin is meanwhile said to be preparing to host a near future Xi visit to Russia – which will be a huge shot across the bow to Washington, given the symbolism of it happening as the war in Ukraine rages.

* * *

In a note this week, Rabobank highlights the important Xi-Lukashenko meeting and how it fits among some alarming global trends…

First, the new US House committee on the Chinese Communist Party’s threat to America is underway: as I type, witnesses are pushing for a massive increase in US military spending; an urgent investment in Taiwan’s defences; preventing US supply-chain vulnerabilities stemming from China; breaking China’s Great Firewall; and blocking Chinese investment in US agri. Second, the word on the street is that if the White House executive order to impose capital controls on US firms investing in China is more limited than first floated, Congress will impose its own tougher version. Third, the Wall Street Journal reports the US may revoke export licenses for Huawei. Fourth, any US chipmaker given part of the $39bn Federal funding for onshoring is to be banned from expansion in China for a decade.

But it gets worse. Ignored by the mainstream media and most of social media despite officially running in 2024, and some polls showing he could win, former President Trump just launched his trade plan that “takes a SLEDGEHAMMER to Globalism” via “Universal Tariffs” – “Total Independence From China” – “Patriotic Protectionism” – “Reviving Mercantilism for the 21st Century”. In short, his proposed “America First” policy would phase in a system of universal, baseline tariffs on most foreign products, the revenue from which would reduce taxation on firms producing in the US. Moreover, tariffs “would increase incrementally depending on how much individual foreign countries devalue their currency.”

Honestly, I am not shocked. I am sure no other markets Daily uses the word “mercantilism” as freely as this one has for around a decade – I had to explain the word in 2015, and then how pre-WW2 US presidents were mercantilists; when Trump floated his first tariffs, I argued phasing them in to allow onshoring FDI before imported goods got more expensive would be logical; ‘Weaker currency = higher tariffs’ was factored into our report on ‘Balance of payments -and power- crises’; and clearly there is still US momentum to change things even if means breaking things, which we factored into our ‘The World in 2030’ report  – which we may arrive at early; moreover, as argued last year, and this, ‘Bretton Woods 3 Won’t Work’.

As Twitter discussions over this topic continue in less Trumpian size-100 font-all-caps-bold-underlined form, I think @matthew_pines summarizes things, and the arguments in this Daily since 2014, when he notes:

“A key function of the economic system post China-in-WTO has been to allow western capital to (1) arbitrage labor costs & (2) grow FIRE sector to direct resulting USD mercantilist surpluses into scarce, desirable assets (NYC real estate, Ivy degrees, UST/Agencies, farm land).

(1) has just about reached its limit, and (2) will face headwinds (if not outright reversal) for national security and domestic political reasons. What new system will result? TBD, but these shifts typically don’t happen smoothly (or peacefully)…”

That’s as this weekend’s National People’s Congress in Beijing is set to see an overhaul of China’s government agencies, including the PBOC, key industries and sectors, bringing them all directly under the CCP in a “relatively intensified” manner, in Xi’s words. What this means is the CCP, not state institutions, will be running things openly from hereon out. These changes will affect the interests of many, he added. And not only in China.

Meanwhile, things are already the opposite of smooth and peaceful in Russia-Ukraine. Look at headlines like: ‘Lukashenko Proposes Unifying Russia, China, and Belarus’ Industrial Policies’; or ‘Russia’s Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland’s borders’; or ‘Putin orders tighter security at Russia-Ukraine border after spate of drone attacks’.

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

EUROPE

Protests galore throughout Europe protesting the war

(zerohedge)

European Antiwar Protests Grow As Fears Of NATO vs Russia Spiral

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Via The Libertarian Institute, 

A series of antiwar protests over the weekend saw Western European citizens in mass demanding their governments pursue diplomacy with Russia and halt arms shipments to Kiev. As the current conflict in Ukraine turned one year old, major demonstrations – which saw people united across the political spectrum – were seen in Germany, France, and Italy.

10,000 people gathered in Paris to protest against France’s membership in both NATO as well as the EU. Attendees also demanded an end to the French government’s military aid to Kiev. The demonstration, dubbed the “National March for Peace” was organized by the right-wing Les Patriotes party. According to the group’s leader Florian Philippot – who joined the Paris rally himself – similar but smaller protests were held at 30 other locations throughout the country on Sunday.

On Saturday, thousands of people participated in peace demonstrations in the Italian cities of Genoa and Milan. In Genoa, the rally focused on ending weapons shipments to Ukraine and was organized by union members and left-wing activists, whose slogan was “Lower weapons, raise wages.” 4,000 people from across Italy joined the Genoa protest, along with people from France and Switzerland as well, according to local media reports.

The Collective Autonomous Port Workers (CALP) helped organize the rally with the Italian communist party. They demanded the port of Genoa’s facilities no longer be used to facilitate arms shipments to Ukraine.

CALP’s Riccardo Rudino pointed out that “the conflict in Ukraine did not begin last year” but rather “in 2014, with the massacre of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass.”

Following the U.S. backed 2014 coup in Kiev – which overthrew the government of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych – Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, while over 14,000 people were killed, including thousands of civilians, in Kiev’s war on the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

In London, a large group carried out a similar demonstration calling for peace in Ukraine and an end to the British government’s weapons transfers to Kiev. The event was held by Stop the War Coalition at Portland Place in Central London and was attended by former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Many thousands of people participated in a massive protest in central Berlin, where attendees railed against German military aid to Kiev. The protesters, who were massed at the Brandenburg Gate, demanded additionally that their government engage Russia in peace talks and bring the war in Ukraine to an end.

The organizers say as many as 50,000 people joined the “Uprising for Peace” demonstrations. However, the police offered a lower-end estimate of 13,000 people in attendance. The event was organized by Sahra Wagenknecht, a member of the Links Party (the Left Party) in Germany, as well as a feminist author and campaigner Alice Schwarzer.

Wagenknecht declared neo-Nazis were not welcome at the protest, but anyone else who desired peace “with an honest heart” was welcome to attend. During her speech at the event, Wagenknecht declared the creation of a “new, strong peace movement in Germany.”

She also observed that the myriad protestors were united by the fact that they do not feel represented by the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, in their decision to supply Kiev with weaponry, including main battle tanks.In a reference to the drastic escalation of Berlin’s involvement in the war since last year, some banners read “Helmets today, tanks tomorrow, the day after tomorrow your sons.”

Other banners carried by the protesters bore such anti war slogans as “Stop the Killing,” “Not My War, Not My Government,” and “Diplomats instead of grenades.”

Two weeks prior to the protest, Wagenknecht and Schwarzer published a “Manifest for Peace” which demanded that Scholz “stop the escalation in weapons deliveries.” The petition has reportedly garnered more than 650,000 signatures, including some prominent intellectuals and political figures.

This weekend’s massive protests in Berlin followed a smaller demonstration at the end of January in Nuremberg, where participants rallied against Scholz’s decision to provide Leopard 2 battle tanks to Kiev. This month, around 10,000 people also protested in Munich during the Munich Security Conference, where Western leaders discussed funding, arming and training Ukrainian forces “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia.

Also on Sunday, in southwestern Germany, protesters gathered at the Ramstein air base – where the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s meetings on arming Kiev are held – calling for an end to the weapons deliveries while demanding the U.S. Air Force to “go home.”

In Nuremberg, protestors expressed their dire concerns that the German people were being dragged into another war with Russia. As one demonstrator commented “If we Germans get involved in a war, and I personally do not have a war with Russia, then for us Germans, based on history, it is the worst sign that we can send.” The demonstrator continued, “no war must go through Germany, neither with arms deliveries nor anything else, because otherwise, Germany will be in the middle of it again.” He believes this is just what “America wants.”

The latest protests in Germany took place against the backdrop of veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report “How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline.”

Before the war began, Russia provided roughly a third of Europe’s gas, while Germany depended on Moscow for more than half of its gas supplies. After the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to ship gas to Europe via an undamaged line in Nord Stream 2. This offer was quickly rejected by Berlin.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken celebrated the blasts in the Baltic Sea – which, according to Hersh, were caused by explosives planted by U.S. Navy divers and detonated with a sonar buoy dropped by a Norwegian spy plane. Blinken described the attack as a “tremendous strategic opportunity” to wean Europe off its dependency on cheap Russian energy “for the years to come.” Since the attack, which led to possibly the largest ever leak of methane gas, the U.S. and Norway have taken Russia’s place as Europe’s top natural gas suppliers.

As a result of the economic war on Russia led by the U.S., people across Europe have suffered skyrocketing gas prices and inflation, leaving some struggling to heat their homes during the frigid winter months. The strain is beginning to show, likely playing some role in motivating the spate of protest actions in recent days. Last year, tens of thousands attended similar demonstrations in Italy, Germany, France, and the Czech Republic, with many voicing outrage over pricey foreign aid to Ukraine as their living standards continue to plummet.

END

GREECE

My goodness: just take a look at this horrific train crash.  Many heads are going to roll on this one

(zerohedge)

Greece Train Crash Kills Dozens, Minister Resigns, Station Manager Arrested

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 10:50 AM

Update (1050ET):

Greek Infrastructure and Transport Minister Kostas Karamanlis announced that he would resign hours after the horrific train crash.

“When something this tragic occurs, we can’t go on as if nothing had happened,” Karamanlis said in a statement. 

“It’s a fact that we inherited the Greek railway in a state that is not fitting for the 21st century. 

“In those three and a half years we made every effort to improve this reality. Unfortunately, those efforts were not adequate to avert such a tragedy,” he added.

According to local authorities, a station manager has been taken into custody in relation to the crash, and a preliminary inquiry is currently ongoing. However, the individual’s identity has not been revealed.

WSJ quoted local officials who said, “the death is the highest for a train crash in Greece since at least the mid-1960s.” 

As of Wednesday afternoon, at least 38 people have been confirmed dead, and more than 80 injured.  

In a devastating accident on Tuesday night, two trains collided head-on in northern Greece, resulting in the deaths of at least 36 people and leaving dozens more injured, AP News reported. The accident occurred near the town of Tempe in northern Greece. 

According to reports, a passenger train carrying 350 passengers and a freight train collided on the same track. Rescue workers and emergency services arrived on the scene and found a mangled mess of carriages and freight cars. 

Rescuers have been combing through the twisted, smoking wreckage on Wednesday morning. Fire officials provided an update hours ago that 36 people had died in the crash, while another 66 were injured. 

AP spoke to survivors and one local about the horrific scene:

Survivors said the impact threw several passengers through the windows of train cars. They said others fought to free themselves after the passenger train buckled, slamming into a field near the gorge, about 380 kilometers (235 miles) north of Athens.

“There were many big pieces of steel,” said Vassilis Polyzos, a local resident who said he was one of the first people on the scene. “The trains were completely destroyed, both passenger and freight trains.”

He said dazed and disoriented people were escaping out of the train’s rear cars as he arrived.

“People, naturally, were scared — very scared,” he said. “They were looking around, searching; they didn’t know where they were.”

What’s clear is both trains were on the same track. As to why, well, that remains a mystery, and police are questioning rail officials. 

END

UK

UK is now set to ration vegetables

(zerohedge)

The UK Is “Rationing” Vegetables… & It’s All About Normalization

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

The past few days have seen certain fruits and vegetables “rationed” by major UK supermarkets.

Aldi, Morrisons, Tesco and Sainsbury’s have all put limits on customer purchases of peppers, tomatoes and cucumbers.

Just yesterday, Lidl added their own name to that list.

Many – including Justin King, former Sainsbury’s CEO – have jumped at the chance to lay the blame at Brexit’s feet.

But that doesn’t make much sense, since Morocco – whence the UK imports a lot of salad vegetables – obviously isn’t in the EU. Further, Ireland has been affected too, plus we’re only 5 months removed from France (and other EU nations) facing their own “catastrophic food shortages”

The other side of the Brexit divide is firmly set on blaming any shortages on the weather. Of course, that’s also helpful to the establishment narrative since the “bad weather” angle can be swiftly and easily parlayed into discussions about climate change. In fact, it already has been.

The real reason there are shortages – supposing there are real shortages, not just psy-op nonsense like the toilet paper fiasco at the beginning of the “pandemic” – is that, one way or another, they have been engineered.

The cost of producing, harvesting and transporting all crops has spiked because the cost of oil and gas was deliberately inflated. The cost of growing crops has increased because there is a “shortage” of fertiliser – likewise purposefully created.

Both of these are “blamed” on the war in Ukraine, but the war but both the energy crisis and fertiliser crisis predate the war in Ukraine (see here and here). We covered this in detail last spring when “food shortages” first hit the headlines.

Speaking of Ukraine, it’s currently easier to get tomatoes in war-torn Kherson than in London. That’s the reality we’re being presented with.

In short, the rationing is just another narrative that doesn’t make internal sense. It’s due to Brexit but isn’t. It’s due to the weather, but not everywhere. It’s a in some stores and not others and apparently in some places but not others and apparently only affecting major supermarkets.

According to one farmer, these supermarkets could make up the shortfall in imports by buying domestically grown produce, but are refusing to incur those costs. Further evidence that the food shortage narrative must be serving a purpose.

And all the while empty shelves and rationing are being normalised.

Neil Oliver nailed it in his most recent monologue:

They’re rationing tomatoes in the supermarkets. We’re told it’s about supply chains, bad weather and the price of heating, but right now, in terms of the messaging, I suspect it’s more about pushing the word – rationing. Less about any believable shortage of food and more about getting us used to hearing the word.

No doubt, if experience is anything to go by, the rest will come later. My money says the rationing app for our smartphones is already sitting on a hard drive somewhere, ready when we are.

For now, it’s more of a familiar process of psychological manipulation. Get us acquainted with the general idea of food scarcity so that we’re well-primed when the planned reality is unrolled.

We were given the same treatment with words like “lockdown” and “pandemic”, “mandate” and “denier”. Nudge, nudge. Rationing is a word from our parents’ and grandparents’ generation, a bit like “War in Europe” and “Fascist” and now they’re back in fashion once more. Rationing, I ask you, while the landfills swell with fresh food dumped every day.

That’s all it’s about. And it is carefully calculated.

Just as Roald Dahl is the first little taste of retroactive censorship – made acceptable by both his controversial legacy and the fact he wrote for children – this is the thin end of the rationing wedge. It’s just tomatoes, after all. No hardship is it?

And yet the head of the UK’s Farmers Union said it would likely get worse, calling it “the tip of the iceberg” (he wasn’t even making a lettuce pun, which is an awful wasted opportunity).

Maybe we should all eat insects or lab-grown paste instead of importing vegetables, amiright?

end

GERMANY

Germany reports hotter than expected CPI and that causes stocks and bonds to falter

(zerohedge)

Stocks & Bonds Dive After Hotter-Than-Expected German CPI

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 08:56 AM

Coming on the heels of yesterday’s hotter than expected inflation prints in France and Spain, this morning’s German CPI printed hotter than expected (+9.3% YoY vs +9.0% exp vs +9.2% prior) as the continued slowing of inflation narrative busts.

The hot German CPI prompted Goldman to upgrade their Euro area headline inflation forecast to 8.46%yoy, from 8.36%yoy previously, and mark up their core inflation tracking estimate by 10bp to 5.38%yoy. This raises their estimate for seasonally adjusted Euro area core inflation to 0.47%mom, 9bp above January’s 0.38%mom

The reading for Europe’s biggest economy puts more pressure on the ECB to hike higher for longer, prompting markets for the first time to price a 4% peak in the ECB’s deposit rate which currently stands at 2.5%.(as we detailed yesterday)…

As Bloomberg economist, Martin Ademmer, noted,“For the ECB, a sequence of upside surprises to readings for the euro area’s biggest economies is awkward. That the bulk of the misses are accounted for by food and energy is cold comfort.”

The expected terminal rate in Europe has risen by almost 90 bps since mid-January…

As Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, further inflation pressures from China would only embolden the ECB, but with a still-fragile European economy, the bank could end up doing too much, too late – the ghost of Trichet’s 2011 rate hikes lurk in the background.

Addressing reporters in Frankfurt earlier Wednesday, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that core price pressures remain very elevated and that the inflation rate is only likely to retreat gradually — averaging between 6% and 7% in Germany this year.

“One thing is clear: the interest-rate step announced for March will not be the last,” he said in a speech. “Further significant interest-rate steps might even be necessary afterwards, too.”

…and that is knocking into US yields…

And dragging US stocks into the red…

It appears the inflation monster is more sticky than the ivory tower believed.

end

.

 5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/EUROPE

Pepe is bang on….a must read!

Escobar: The Stage Is Set For Hybrid World War III

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 12:05 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

A powerful feeling rhythms your skin and drums up your soul as you’re immersed in a long walk under persistent snow flurries, pinpointed by selected stops and enlightening conversations, crystallizing disparate vectors one year after the start of the accelerated phase of the proxy war between US/NATO and Russia.

That’s how Moscow welcomes you: the undisputed capital of the 21st century multipolar world.

A long, walking meditation impregnates on us how President Putin’s address – rather, a civilizational speech – last week was a game-changer when it comes to the demarcation of the civilizational red lines we are all now facing.

It acted like a powerful drill perforating the less than short, actually zero term memory of the Collective West. No wonder it exercised a somewhat sobering effect contrasting the non-stop Russophobia binge of the NATOstan space.

Alexey Dobrinin, Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Russia, has correctly described Putin’s address as “a methodological basis for understanding, describing and constructing multipolarity.”

For years some of us have been showing how the emerging multipolar world is defined – but goes way beyond – high speed interconnectivity, physical and geoeconomic. Now, as we reach the next stage, it’s as if Putin and Xi Jinping, each in their own way, are conceptualizing the two key civilizational vectors of multipolarity. That’s the deeper meaning of the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership, invisible to the naked eye.

Metaphorically, it also speaks volumes that Russia’s pivot to the East, towards the rising sun, now irreversible, was the only logical path to follow as, to quote Dylan, darkness dawns at the break of noon across the West.

As it stands, with the wobblin’, ragin’ Hegemon lost in its own pre-fabricated daze, the real runners of the show feeding burning flesh to irredeemably mediocre political “elites”, China may have a little more latitude than Russia, as the Middle Kingdom is not – yet – under the same existential pressure Russia has been put under.

Whatever happens next geopolitically, Russia is at heart a – giant – obstacle on the warmongering path of the Hegemon: the ultimate target is top “threat” China.

Putin’s ability to size up our extremely delicate geopolitical moment – via a dose of highly concentrated, undiluted realism – is something to behold. And then Foreign Minister Lavrov provided the sweet cherry on top, calling the hapless US ambassador for a hardcore dress down: oh yeah, this is war, hybrid and otherwise, and your NATO mercenaries as well as your junk hardware are legitimate targets.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, now more than ever relishing his “unplugged” status, made it all very clear: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.”

And the message is even more acute because it represents the – public – cue to the Chinese leadership at the Zhongnahhai to understand: whatever happens next, this is the Kremlin’s unmovable official position.

The Chinese restore the Mandate of Heaven

All these vectors are evolving as ramifications of the bombing of the Nord Streams, the only military attack – cum industrial terrorism – ever perpetrated against the EU, leave the Collective West paralyzed, dazed and confused.

Perfectly in tandem with Putin’s address, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs chose the geopolitical/existential moment to finally take the gloves off, with a flourish: enter the US Hegemony and its Perils essay cum report, which became an instant massive hit across Chinese media, examined with relish all across East Asia.

This blistering enumeration of all the Hegemon’s lethal follies, for decades, constitutes a point of no return for trademark Chinese diplomacy, so far characterized by passivity, ambivalence, actual restraint and extreme politeness. So such turnaround is yet another proud “achievement” of the outright Sinophobia and mendacious hostility exhibited by American neocons and neoliberal-cons.

Scholar Quan Le notes that this document may be regarded as the traditional form – but now filled with contemporary wording – the Chinese Sovereigns used in their millenary past before going to war.

It is in fact an axio-epistemo-political proclamation justifying a serious war, which in the Chinese universe means a war ordained by a Higher Power capable of restoring Justice & Harmony in a troubled Universe.

After the proclamation the warriors are equipped to strike mercilessly at the entity judged to be troubling the Harmony of the Universe: in our case, the psycho Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons commanded as rabid dogs by the real American elites.

Of course in the Chinese universe there’s no place for “God” – much less a Christian version; “God” for the Chinese means the Beauty-Goodness-Truth trinity, Timeless Heavenly Universal Principles. The closest concept for a non-Chinese to understand is Dao: the Way. So the Way to the Beauty-Goodness-Truth trinity represents symbolically Beauty-Goodness-Truth.

So what Beijing did – and the Collective West is completely clueless about it – was to issue an axio-epistemo-political proclamation explaining the legitimacy of their quest to restore Timeless Heavenly Universal Principles. They will be fulfilling the Mandate of Heaven – nothing less. The West won’t know what it hit them until it’s too late.

It was predictable that sooner or later the heirs of Chinese civilization would have had enough – and formally identify, mirroring Putin’s analysis, the upstart Hegemon as the premier source of chaos, inequality and war across the planet. Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder, in a nutshell.

To put it bluntly, in streetwise language, the hell with this Americana crap of hegemony being justified by “manifest destiny”.

So here we are. You want Hybrid War? We will return the favor.

Back to the Wolfowitz Doctrine

A former CIA advisor has issued a quite sobering report on a pebble along the rocky way: a possible endgame in Ukraine, now that even some elite-run parrots are contemplating a “way out” with minimal loss of face.

It’s never idle to remember that way back in 2000, the year Vladimir Putin was first elected as President, in the pre-9/11 world, rabid neocon Paul Wolfowitz was side by side with Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski in a huge Ukraine-US symposium in Washington, where he unabashedly raved about provoking Russia to go to war with Ukraine, and committed to finance the destruction of Russia.

Everyone remembers the Wolfowitz doctrine – which was essentially a tawdry, pedestrian rehash of Brzezinski: to keep permanent US hegemony it was primordial to pre-empt the emergence of any potential competitor.

Now we have two nuclear-powered, tech savvy peer competitors united by a comprehensive strategic partnership.

As I finished my long walk paying due respect by the Kremlin to the heroes of 1941-1945, the feeling was inescapable that as much as Russia is a master of riddles and China is a master of paradox, their strategists are now working full time on how to return all strands of Hybrid War against the Hegemon. One thing is certain: unlike boastful Americans, they won’t outline any breakthroughs until they are already in effect.

END

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Bakhmut is now completely encircled.  Sadly, most Ukrainian soldiers are killed within the first 4 hours of them arriving to the front.

(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)

Most Ukrainian Soldiers On Bakhmut Front-Line Killed ‘Within 4 Hours’

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

A retired American Marine fighting in Ukraine told ABC News the frontlines are a “meat grinder” where soldiers survive an average of “four hours.” 

Troy Offenbecker is fighting alongside Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region. Moscow and Kiev have been battling around Bakhmut for several months as Russia’s forces have slowly made gains around the city. Artillery vehicle fires near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, via AP.

In January, Germany estimated Kiev was losing a “three-digit number” of soldiers daily fighting for Bakhmut. At that time, the White House believed President Volodymyr Zelensky was committing too many lives and resources to defend the city. 

Offenbecker’s commentary suggests that the situation may be getting worse for Ukrainian soldiers. “It’s been pretty bad on the ground. A lot of casualties.” He assessed, “the life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline.”

He said the Russian attack on the city is not letting up and had turned into a “meat grinder.” “[The artillery] is nonstop.” Offenbecker explained the Russian forces are fighting around the clock. “[The Russians] have maybe run into a shortage of shells lately, but the past couple of weeks, it’s been nonstop. All day and night,” he told ABC.

Meanwhile, Kiev’s Western backers have expressed to Zelensky in recent weeks that NATO countries are struggling to find artillery shells to send to Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the US will train Ukrainian forces on fighting methods that use fewer munitions. 

The Kremlin ordered a mobilization of 300,000 troops last year. Western leaders have anticipated Moscow will order an offensive this winter. Ukrainian officials say that the Russian offensive is now underway, and Offenbecker agrees. “With the amount of shelling, the amount of armor that they’ve brought in, I think it’s started,” he explained to ABC. Troy Offenbecker. Source: Instagram/@tiger_in_ukraine

Due to Moscow’s and Kiev’s tight control over their countries’ presses, it is unclear how substantial the death toll is for each country. Since the start of the war, Zelensky has nationalized Ukraine’s media, outlawed his political opposition and jailed citizens who opposed his administration. 

Commenting on the state of journalism in Ukraine, press-union leader Serhiy Guz explained, “We never know what’s the basis of these accusations, what’s the pro-Russian link…It starts to look like a political accusation rather than a genuine crime.” 

“A lot of journalists self-censor now,” he added. 

END

SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS DOWN TO US:

Ukrainian drones shot down over Belgorod carried explosives with striking elements

Poking the bear.



https://en.topcor.ru/32577-v-nebe-nad-belgorodom-sbity-tri-ukrainskih-bespilotnika.html

END

Zelensky Floats ‘Strategic Pullback’ From Bakhmut After Pouring In Huge Amount Of Reserve Forces

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 01:25 PM

Zelensky officials are now openly talking about a possible ‘strategic pullback’ from the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut. This comes after Zelensky himself said he’s not ready to order a continued defense of the city at all costs. By all accounts both sides are suffering huge casualties, but Russia has the superior artillery fire, which has been sustained around the clock, also as Kremlin forces have the city almost completely surrounded. According to The Hill:

A Ukrainian presidential adviser on Tuesday said troops may “strategically pull back” from the town of Bakhmut, the focus of intense and brutal fighting for the past few months.

Alexander Rodnyansky told CNN the Ukrainian army has not yet pulled out of the city, but Kyiv may soon decide the cost of holding Bakhmut “outweighs the benefits.”

“Our military is obviously going to weigh all of the options,” the Zelensky aide told CNN. “So far they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing.”

President Zelensky has also admitted defense of the town has proven “most difficult” for his forces. However, in rare comments, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said Ukrainian forces continue putting up a fierce resistance on Wednesday. So far they’ve been throwing an immense amount of manpower into Bakhmut, he said. 

“The Ukrainian army is throwing extra reserves into Artyomovsk and trying to hold the town with all their strength,” Prigozhin said, using the Russian name for Bakhmut, in an audio message published by Wagner’s press service. “Tens of thousands of Ukrainian army fighters are putting up furious resistance. The bloodiness of the battles is growing by the day.”

Indeed recent footage from inside the city shows a war-torn wasteland of rubble…

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As we reported previously, a retired American Marine fighting in Ukraine told ABC News this week that the frontlines are a “meat grinder” where soldiers survive an average of “four hours.”

In a Tuesday address Zelensky said something similar of the Russian side: “Russia does not count people at all, sending them to constantly storm our positions,” and acknowledged, “The intensity of fighting is only increasing.”

A variety of updated battle maps circulating among war monitors have consistently shown the Russians have the Ukrainians nearly surrounded…

6.GLOBAL ISSUES/COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

a must view:

(Tom Ozimek)

FDA Finds Rare Neurological Disorder Is ‘Potential Risk’ With Pfizer RSV Vaccine

HEALTH & SAFETY

Tom Ozimek

Feb 25 2023

biggersmaller

A person poses with a syringe in front of the Pfizer Inc. logo on Dec. 11, 2021. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)

0:003:151 

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) stated that two older adults who received Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine during a clinical trial were subsequently diagnosed with the rare neurological disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome.

Briefing documents (pdf) released on Feb. 24 ahead of this week’s meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee flagged the two cases of the disorder and stated that Pfizer’s vaccine poses a potential risk.

“Given the temporal association and biological plausibility, FDA agrees with the assessments of the investigators that these events were possibly related to study vaccine,” the FDA stated in the documents. “Therefore, [Guillain-Barré] is being considered an important potential risk.”

Two people in their 60s who received the RSV vaccine were diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome in a phase 3 trial, which involved 20,000 recipients of the vaccine. There were no instances of the neurological disorder in people who received a placebo.

One of the people who experienced the illness made a full recovery after three months and another was showing improvement after half a year.

The briefing documents show that the FDA asked Pfizer to conduct a safety study if the RSV vaccine is approved in the spring.

The advisory committee is scheduled to meet on Feb. 28 and discuss RSV vaccines from Pfizer and British drugmaker GSK for adults aged 60 and older.

Pfizer stated in its own briefing document (pdf) that the cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome have possible explanations unrelated to its vaccine.

No safety concerns were identified by Pfizer during the trial and the company stated that it would carry out a safety study on its RSV vaccine if approved.

The FDA’s briefing documents state that Pfizer’s RSV vaccine was 85.7 percent effective at preventing severe illness.

What Is Guillain-Barré Syndrome?

Guillain-Barré syndrome is a rare neurological disorder in which the immune system attacks one’s own nerves. The first symptoms are weakness and tingling in the hands and feet. Severe cases can lead to paralysis or death.

There’s no cure for the syndrome, although most people make a full recovery in a process that can take several years.

The cause of the disorder is unknown, but about two-thirds of patients report symptoms of an infection about a month and a half before the onset of the illness.

The infections preceding Guillain-Barré syndrome can include the Zika virus, gastrointestinal and respiratory infections, and COVID-19.

What Is RSV?

RSV is a virus that causes flu-like symptoms and is highly contagious. Older people tend to have more severe symptoms when afflicted with RSV, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates (pdf) kills about 14,000 people older than 65 each year in the United States.

The CDC estimates that there are roughly 2.2 million symptomatic RSV illnesses each year and about 177,000 hospitalizations.

RSV is about as severe as influenza, which the CDC believes is associated with 12,000 to 43,000 deaths each year in people aged 65 and older.

While there are currently no approved vaccines against RSV, that could change if Pfizer’s and GSK’s vaccines get the nod from the advisory panel.

We hope you enjoy our coverage! As you are visiting us today, we’d like to ask you one question —  How much do you think news media outlets actually impact your life? 

…Probably more than you realize.

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end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Kill the unvaccinated, shoot them all dead! This is the view of democrats? Well, a top Florida Doctor (Democrat) Calls for Unvaccinated To Be Shot to Death in Executions, so says Dr. Daniel B. Case

This is the madness we face, this is life under the Biden administration with its mandate madness! This Florida doctor is a stark raving lunatic madman, Dr. Daniel B. Case, wants Nazi-style executions

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 28

SAVE▷  LISTEN

“So I asked him ‘Really Dr. Case?? You really saying this stuff??!’ Then he said ‘When you guys get fired then we’ll have a party and Darwinism will do it’s [sic] work.’ Then I said ‘that’s [sic] sounds kind of Fascist of you to say such a thing! Are you a Fascist??’ Then he said ‘see that’s why they should take you guys to the firing line.’”

SOURCE:

https://newspunch.com/top-democrat-doctor-calls-for-unvaccinated-to-be-shot-to-death-in-nazi-style-executions/

end

We knew of natural immunity for 2,500 years, all the way back to the Athenian plague, I remind you of this substack “The same man was never attacked twice and certainly not fatally”

That one statement is natural immunity in all of it’s glory 2,500 yr; this is natural immunity, yet these morons, these malfeasants, these inept corrupted CDC, NIH, FDA, Health Canada people pretended

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 1

SAVE▷  LISTEN

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

Natural exposure immunity evidence existed even historically from the Athenian plague of 430 BC whereby historical documents showed that recovered persons were protected when re-exposed to infection

Read more

BOOM! Dr. Joe Ladapo, Surgeon General of Florida steps up the game writing to Drs. Califf & Walensky on the harms & deaths of mRNA COVID gene injection; now Dr. Malone is to explain to the medical &

Read more

FBI chief Christopher Wray says China lab leak ‘most likely’ – BBC News

to : me

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903

end

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) following COVID-19 vaccination; Twenty-seven (27) cases of AIH emerged indicating evidence of autoimmune reactions in response to various COVID-19 vaccine (Zheng et al.)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 1

SAVE▷  LISTEN

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36505482/

There has been a noticeable increase in cases of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) after COVID vaccination. Researchers reported in twenty-seven (27) cases of AIH.

This research provides ‘emerging evidence of autoimmune reactions in response to various COVID-19 vaccines, including in patients with special disease backgrounds such as primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), liver transplantation, and previous hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. Molecular mimicry, adjuvants, epitope spreading, bystander activation, X chromosome, and sceptical hepatotropism of SARS-CoV-2 may account for, to some extent, such autoimmune phenomena. Immunosuppressive corticosteroids perform well with or without azathioprine in such post-COVID-19-vaccination AIH. However, determination of the exact mechanism and establishment of causality require further confirmation.’

‘The possible mechanisms that may occur behind the scenes include molecular mimicry, adjuvants, epitope spreading, bystander activation, X chromosome, and sceptical hepatotropism of SARS-CoV-2. For ordinarily developed AIH, initial treatments include high doses of immunosuppressive corticosteroids, which are then tapered gradually using azathioprine to minimize adverse effects (81). This fundamental treatment still works when extended to the more complex situation of AIH following COVID-19 vaccination.’

DR PANDA

He Would Have Gotten A Clean Bill Of Health If He Had A Pulse

Mets minor-leaguer dies suddenly

DR PANDAMAR 1

SAVE▷  LISTEN

When are people going to wake up?

Matt Probereko, who was a former Mets Minor League pitcher, died suddenly on Monday. He was 31. Just like many others the autopsy revealed nothing. From the NBC News article:

“He just dropped, and that’s all we know,” Daniel Pobereyko said. “We don’t know. There’s nothing outstanding on the autopsy. But from what I understand, he would have gotten a clean bill of health if he had a pulse.”

“There were no suspicious circumstances to report, and an autopsy conducted the following day did not reveal anything further.”

So it seems he dropped dead of ‘nothing’. Young, healthy people don’t drop dead from ‘nothing’. Yes, people die, we all know that but not at this rate. Something is going on.

Of course he was vaccinated. I feel for the family – they know nothing and suspect nothing. If they dig a little deeper with a private autopsy they may find out the truth.

---

---

Take a look at a tweet from Ed Doud, who analyzes and finds patterns in life insurance data. Here is the preliminary Society of Actuary excess death numbers for life insurance in quarter four of 2022. It shows group life insurance claims rise each month. December is 44% higher than the baseline, pre-pandemic.

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

Thread: Preliminary SOA excess death numbers for group life claims in units for Q4 by month excess to baseline. Report comes out in May. Oct Nov Dec 0-44 13% 21% 43% 45-64 4% 16% 35% Being told Jan and Feb higher than Dec7:35 PM ∙ Feb 28, 20231,884Likes946Retweets

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

We call this acceleration on Wall Street and it’s a big problem. Source: Industry Insider Additionally the incident report has the all-other/unknown category above baseline for the years 20, 21 & 22 as the following 20: 9% 21: 10% 22: 30% In other words “Cause Unknown”7:35 PM ∙ Feb 28, 2023770Likes200Retweets

The report comes out in May. It will be interesting to see if these numbers hold up.

The medical autopsy is the most reliable and thorough means to determine the cause of death. Why is it failing us now?

Scary stuff.

Thanks for reading!

VACCINE IMPACT//

Is the U.S. Preparing to go to War Against China?

February 28, 2023 3:45 pm

While China recently laid out a peace plan for the Ukraine conflict, the U.S. is sending signals that they are about to go to war against China, claiming that China is about to join the war in Ukraine. Adding to the demonizing rhetoric against China the past few days, now all of a sudden it is OK to blame China for creating the COVID-19 “virus” in a laboratory where it allegedly leaked out, something that the corporate media has been proclaiming is a “conspiracy theory” for the past couple of years. Clayton and Natali Morris of Redacted News do a great job of analyzing all of this propaganda and showing how the U.S. Government is lying, and in some cases even admitting that they have been lying to the public. Is China a real danger to attacking the U.S., or is the U.S. spreading propaganda as a pretext to drawing China into a military confrontation?

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY//

Robert H to us;

PiE_r on Twitter: “U.S MILITARY NOW BEING TESTED FOR AIDS Attorney Todd Callender They put 3 HIV proteins in these shots and gave the world vaccine induced AIDS  The DOD database reports a 500% increase in HIV in 2021 https://t.co/QFTSuzevjc” / Twitter

So mandatory jabs for US military and they get VAIDS … and you think they are fight capable?

https://twitter.com/Megohelie1/status/1630519168192901120

end

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Ted Cruz: Fauci Lies Have ‘Hurt Millions of Kids’Republican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has slammed Dr. Anthony Fauci for lying about the pandemic and covering up the origins of Covid.READ MORE

Tom Cotton Slams Liberal Media over Covid Cover-Up: ‘Acting Like Lawyers for Chinese Communists’Republican Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has slammed the liberal corporate media over the coordinated effort to cover up reports on the origins of the Covid pandemic.READ MORE

Biden’s EPA Refuses to Test for Chemical Compounds in East Palestine after Toxic Train WreckDemocrat President Joe Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is refusing to test for chemical compounds in East Palestine following the toxic train derailment disaster in the small Ohio town.READ MORE

Hollywood Star Admits Climate Activism Hurt Career: ‘I Gave People the Creeps’Hollywood star Ed Begley Jr. has come clean and admitted that his climate activism hurt his career over the years.READ MORE

Marjorie Taylor Greene ‘Attacked’ in Restaurant: ‘They Turned into Demons’Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) said she was “attacked” on Monday night to while sitting in a restaurant with her staff.READ MORE

Rand Paul Demands Documents on Covid Lab Leak Are DeclassifiedRepublican Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has fired back after Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration finally admitted that COVID-19 most likely leaked from a lab.READ MORE

House Votes to Force Manufacturers to Tell Consumers about Microphones, Cameras in DevicesThe House of Representatives has voted in support of a bill that would force manufacturers to tell consumers if Internet-connected devices have a built-in camera or microphone.READ MORE

1.2 Million Voters Removed from Los Angeles Voter Rolls since MidtermsLos Angeles County has removed 1.2 million inactive voters from its voter rolls since the 2022 midterm elections, according to reports.READ MORE

30-Year-Old Cop Suffers Heart Attack, Dies Suddenly While Working Out in GymA 30-year-old police officer has tragically died suddenly after suffering a heart attack while working out in the gym.READ MORE

LA’s Democrat Mayor Pushes to Lower Bar for Police Force to ‘Diversify’ LAPDLos Angeles’ Democrat Mayor Karen Bass is pushing to lower the bar for police recruitment in an effort to “diversify” the LAPD.READ MORE

Satanic Video Game Encourages Players to ‘Sacrifice Friends to Demons’A new video game has just been released that encourages players to perform Satanic rituals.READ MORE

Washington Post: No Evidence Trump to Blame for East Palestine Toxic Train WreckThe Washington Post’s “fact checker” has responded to allegations from Democrats and their allies in the media that President Donald Trump was to blame for the recent toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.READ MORE

Twitter Flooded with Calls for Katie Hobbs’ Arrest over Allegations of Cartel Links, Money Laundering, Election RiggingTwitter users have been flooding the social media platform with calls for the arrest of Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s recently installed governor, after explosive allegations emerged against the powerful Democrat.READ MORE

end

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0684  UP .01077

USA/ YEN 135,39 DOWN 0.953/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2068  UP   0.0025

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3587 DOWN .0058 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 58 PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 32.74 PTS OR 1.00% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 833.77 PTS OR 4.21% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  .03%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL  GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED  UP 833.77 PTS OR 4.21%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32,74 PTS OR 1.00% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.03% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 70.97 PTS OR 0.26% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1838.65

silver:$21.10

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 104.10 DOWN 73  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.575% UP 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.500% UP 0 AND 3/100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.752%// UP 8  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.569 UP 7   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.715 UP 7 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0678 UP 0.01006 or  100 basis points//

USA/Japan: 136.00 DOWN 0.339 OR YEN UP 34 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2020 DOWN.0014 OR 14 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0033 OR 33 BASIS pts  to 1.3612

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP ..(6.8691) 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8809

TURKISH LIRA:  18.89  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.5000…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  3.993% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.976 UP 4 in basis points

USA 2 yr bond yield:  4.872 UP 8 basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.35 DOWN 48  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 38.65 PTS OR  0.49%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 60,12 POINTS OR 0.39 %

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 33.68 PTS OR 0.46% 

Spain IBEX  DOWN 71..70 POINTS OR 0.76%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 163.29PTS OR  0.59/%

WTI Oil price 76.73 12: EST

Brent Oil:  83.24 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  75.15/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 18/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7155

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.872 UP 8 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0661  UP 0.0085    OR 85 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2013 DOWN .0019  or  18 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.852% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.16 DOWN 0.187////YEN  UP 19 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3602 DOWN .0042 (CDN dollar, UP 42 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 77,70

Brent OIL:  84.36

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 3.998% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 3.959% 

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 9 PTS AT 4.883%  

USA dollar index: 104.41 DOWN 42  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.89

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  75.15  DOWN 0   AND  18/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 5.86 PTS OR 0.02% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 103.53 PTS OR 0.86%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.56 DOWN .14 PTS (0.08)%

GLD: $170.76 UP 0.98 OR 0.58%

SLV/ $19.29 UP 0,07 OR 0.36%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Bonds & Big-Tech Dump As Stagflation Signs Soar

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 04:01 PM

March Madness is off with chaos in oil prices today, wild swings in stocks, gold and crypto spiking, and bonds battered as stagflationary fears roared back.

Hotter than expected inflation print out of Germany (after yesterday’s hot prints in France and Spain) sparked a pre-open ramp in yields and dump in stocks. Hawkish Kashkari comments did not help out of the gate and Manufacturing surveys confirmed stagflation fears with a resurgence in inflation and a slowing of production/orders, dragging stocks to fresh lows for the day.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both broke down to their 200DMA and bounced…

…thanks to 0DTE-Call-Buying (highlighted in the orange box). The afternoon saw an aggressive swing positive in gamma positioning with 0DTE call-buying and put-selling (even as the market sold off – green box)…

A clearer picture of the use of 0DTE options to lift the S&P off its 200DMA is below…

HIRO Indicator | SpotGamma™

But it wasn’t enough as stocks faded back towards the lows and the key technical levels. Nasdaq was the biggest loser on the day along with the S&P, but The Dow and Small Caps managed to get back into the green…

“Most Shorted” stocks were squeezed at the cash open and faded back (again)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were dumped across the curve with the belly underperforming (30Y +3.5bps, 5Y +9bps, 2Y +7bps). On the week, the short-end (2Y) is the biggest loser…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield topped 4.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

…for the first time since November’s CPI print…

Source: Bloomberg

The market priced in a 5.5% terminal Fed rate for the first time this cycle (Sep 2023) with any hopes of rate-cuts basically gone…

Source: Bloomberg

Also of note, expectations for The ECB’s terminal rate rose above 4.00% for the first time today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was dumped overnight after China’s strong PMIs but strengthened a little during the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged up to test $24k, faded back, then as the last hour of equity trading began, BTC dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were chaotic today, swinging wildly on China PMIs, German inflation, yet more crude inventory builds, and US PMIs…

Gold extended yesterday’s bounce, topping $1850 intraday…

Finally, financial conditions continue to tighten back towards monetary policy reality…

Source: Bloomberg

With a 2-3 week lag, that would suggest that US Macro data is going to start surprising to the downside soon…

Source: Bloomberg

…which will then prompt pivot talk… which will rally stocks and bonds… which will loosen financial conditions… rinse, repeat.

EARLY MORNING TRADING//

II) USA DATA

4TH straight month of contraction.  Both PMI’s report contraction and with a resurgence of stagflation in February

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation Resurgence In February

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 10:03 AM

Despite the market’s ‘tightening’ of policy, February saw US Macro data surprising dramatically and serially to the upside and while many of the regional Fed surveys have signaled economic slowdowns, the national Manufacturing survey data from ISM and PMI today were expected to rise (but both to remain in contraction sub-50).

S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI February final printed 47.4, below the flash 47.7, but above January’s 46.9

ISM’s US Manufacturing February printed , versus expectations of 48.0, from January’s 47.4

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 4th straight month of US Manufacturing contraction (sub-50 prints) with S&P Global seeing slowing orders, weaker production, and prices re-accelerating. ISM data also showed a huge jump in Prices Paid, back above 50, while new orders rose but remain below 50 for the 6th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

All of the ISM Manufacturing’s drivers were negative MoM…

Which is reflected in the respondents’ comments:

• “Expect the first half of 2023 in the U.S. to be slower than the second half. Expect slower orders throughout 2023 for Europe.”
• “A slowdown in new housing construction and concerns of a slowing economy have customers delaying purchases in an effort to destock.”
• “Business and new orders are softening, and customers are pushing out current orders.”

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“US manufacturing remained under intense pressure in February. Although the PMI rose slightly, it continues to signal the steepest downturn outside of pandemic lockdown months since 2009.

“Moreover, some of the improvement in output could merely be attributed to faster supplier delivery times, which quickened to the greatest extent since 2009 to facilitate higher production and enable factories to work through previously placed orders. The worry is that new order inflows continue to fall sharply as many companies report disappointing sales, linked in part to a sustained trend towards cost-saving inventory reduction and low levels of confidence at their customers, both at home and abroad. None of this points to a healthy economic situation.

“There was some brighter news in that factory jobs growth picked up slightly amid reports of greater success in filling vacancies, and the improvement in supply chains helped reduce input cost inflation. However, rising wage pressures and efforts to raise margins meant average prices for goods leaving the factory gate rose sharply once again, the rate of inflation accelerating for a second straight month to hint at stubbornly high price pressures.”

So, slower growth and re-accelerating inflation – that’s not what The Fed ordered!

END

U.S. construction spending falls in January

WASHINGTON(Reuters) – U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in January as investment in single-family homebuilding continued to decline.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that construction spending dipped 0.1% in January after dropping 0.7% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending rising 0.2%. Construction spending increased 5.7% on a year-on-year basis in January.

Spending on private construction projects was unchanged after decreasing 0.8% in December. Investment in residential construction fell 0.6%, with spending on single-family housing projects dropping 1.7%. Outlays on multi-family housing projects rose 0.4%, boosted by strong demand for rental housing.

The housing market has been hammered by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, with residential investment contracting for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009.

There are, however, signs that the housing market is stabilizing, with pending home sales rising by the most in more than 2-1/2 years in January and new home sales hitting a 10-month high. But mortgage rates have resumed their ascent, which could delay a turnaround.

Outlays on private non-residential structures like gas and oil well drilling increased 0.9% in January. Spending on public construction projects fell 0.6% after slipping 0.2% in December. Investment in state and local government construction projects tumbled 1.4%, while federal government construction spending surged 8.6%.

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

A good sign showing the rapid deterioration of the  USA economy

(zerohedge)

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2009

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 07:45 AM

For the past year, both the Biden White House and the Fed have been desperate to usher in a (mild) recession in the US to break the back of runaway inflation and the wage-price spiral with little success. But judging by the surge in bankruptcy filings, they are about to get their wish.

One month ago, when looking at the recent pace of large bankruptcy filings (those with more than $50MM in liabilities), we noted a troubling trend: in the first month of the year, the number of US bankruptcies topped 20, the highest in any other January dating back to 2010. Back then, 25 filings were seen as the economy was still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC.

The spike in defaults was not a fluke, and according to Bloomberg data, one month later – as of the end of February – no less than 39 large companies had filed for bankruptcy in the US so far this year, as February’s pace matches that of January; the YTD total represents the fastest pace of companies filing for bankruptcy since the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. By comparison, US bankruptcy courts had seen 63 large filings at this point in 2009.

Last week’s seven large filings — those tied to at least $50 million of liabilities — include the liquidation of generic drugmaker Akorn and the Chapter 11 filing of Covid-19 testmaker Lucira Health

This year, some of the most notable bankruptcy filings have been festive retailer Party City Holdco Inc, mattress maker Serta Simmons Bedding LLC, and cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Holdco. 

The pile of dollar-denominated corporate bonds and loans in the Americas trading at distressed levels rose to $237.2 billion in the week ended Friday, about a 1.63% increase from $233.4 billion a week earlier, according to BBG data.

Some more details from Bloomberg:

• The US accounts for the greatest volume of distressed debt in the Americas

• The media sector had the greatest amount of distressed debt as of the latest week

• Bausch Health Cos. had the most distressed debt outstanding of any issuer as of Feb. 17, data compiled by Bloomberg shows

end

Trouble ahead as the USA’s largest grid supplier warns of an energy shortage due to sstupid undeliverable mandates by Biden’s administration

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

Largest US Grid Supplier Warns Of An Energy Shortage Due To Undeliverable Mandates

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 11:45 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let’s discuss the warnings of PJM Interconnect, the operator of the nation’s largest competitive market for electricity.

Before reviewing the PJM Interconnect February 2023 report, let’s take a look at policies and regulations.

Policies and Regulations

• EPA Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR): The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated national minimum criteria for existing and new coal combustion residuals (CCR) landfills and existing and new CCR surface impoundments. This led to a number of facilities, approximately 2,700 MW in capacity, indicating their intent to comply with the rule by ceasing coal-firing operations, which is reflected in this study.
• EPA Effluent Limitation Guidelines (ELG): The EPA updated these guidelines in 2020, which triggered the announcement by Keystone and Conemaugh facilities (about 3,400 MW) to retire their coal units by the end of 2028. 14 Importantly, but not included in this study, the EPA is planning to propose a rule to strengthen and possibly broaden the guidelines applicable to waste (in particular water) discharges from steam electric generating units. The EPA is expecting this to impact coal units by potentially requiring investments when plants renew their discharge permits, and extending the time that plants can operate if they agree to a retirement date.
• EPA Good Neighbor Rule (GNR): This proposal requires units in certain states to meet stringent limits on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which, for certain units, will require investment in selective catalytic reduction to reduce NOx. For purposes of this study, it is assumed that unit owners will not make that investment and will retire approximately 4,400 MW of units instead. Please note that the EPA plans on finalizing the GNR in March, which may necessitate reevaluation of this assumption.
• Illinois Climate & Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA): CEJA mandates the scheduled phase-out of coal and natural gas generation by specified target dates: January 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045. To understand CEJA criteria impacts and establish the timing of affected generation units’ expected deactivation, PJM analyzed each generating unit’s publicly available emissions data, published heat rate, and proximity to Illinois environmental justice communities and Restore, Reinvest, Renew (R3) zones. For this study, PJM focuses on the approximately 5,800 MW expected to retire in 2030. 

Solar Projects On Hold

Next, consider the Inside Climate News report The Largest U.S. Grid Operator Puts 1,200 Mostly Solar Projects on Hold for Two Years

The nation’s largest electrical grid operator has approved a new process for adding power plants to the sprawling transmission system it manages, including a two-year pause on reviewing and potentially approving some 1,200 projects, mostly solar power, that are part of a controversial backlog.

Over the last four years, PJM officials have said they have experienced a fundamental shift in the number and type of energy projects seeking to be added to a grid, each needing careful study to ensure reliability. It used to be that PJM would see fewer, but larger, fossil fuel proposals. Now, they are seeing a larger number of smaller, largely renewable energy projects.

A new approval process will put projects that are the readiest for construction at the front of the line, and discourage those that might be more speculative or that have not secured all their financing.

Then, an interim period will put a two-year delay on about 1,250 projects in their queue—close to half of the total—and defer the review of new projects until the fourth quarter of 2025, with final decisions on those coming as late as the end of 2027. 

Energy Transition in PJM

Now let’s now take a look at Energy Transition in PJM: Resource Retirements, Replacements & Risks released February 24, 2023.

Our research highlights four trends below that we believe, in combination, present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry under a possible “low new entry” scenario:

The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region. Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known. PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation. 

The analysis shows that 40 GW of existing generation are at risk of retirement by 2030. This figure is composed of: 6 GW of 2022 deactivations, 6 GW of announced retirements, 25 GW of potential policy-driven retirements and 3 GW of potential economic retirements. Combined, this represents 21% of PJM’s current installed capacity.

In addition to the retirements, PJM’s long-term load forecast shows demand growth of 1.4% per year for the PJM footprint over the next 10 years. Due to the expansion of highly concentrated clusters of data centers, combined with overall electrification, certain individual zones exhibit more significant demand growth – as high as 7% annually.

For the first time in recent history, PJM could face decreasing reserve margins should these trends continue. The amount of generation retirements appears to be more certain than the timely arrival of replacement generation resources and demand response, given that the quantity of retirements is codified in various policy objectives, while the impacts to the pace of new entry of the Inflation Reduction Act, post-pandemic supply chain issues, and other externalities are still not fully understood. 

Recent movement in the natural gas spot markets across the U.S. and Europe add another degree of uncertainty to future operations. In 2022, European natural gas supply faced many challenges resulting from the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the EU and the U.K. in the first half of 2022 increased 66% over the 2021 annual average, primarily from U.S. exporters with operational flexibility. This international natural gas demand is a new competitor for domestic spot-market consumers, resulting in significantly higher fuel costs for PJM’s natural gas fleet. 

Along with the energy transition, PJM is witnessing a large growth in data center activity. Importantly, the PJM footprint is home to Data Center Alley in Loudoun County, Virginia, the largest concentration of data centers in the world. PJM uses the Load Analysis Subcommittee (LAS) to perform technical analysis to coordinate information related to the forecast of electrical peak demand. In 2022, the LAS began a review of data center load growth and identified growth rates over 300% in some instances. 

Additionally, PJM is expecting an increase in electrification resulting from state and federal policies and regulations. The study therefore incorporates an electrification scenario in the load forecast to provide insight on capacity need should accelerated electrification drive demand increases.

Impacts of Electrification and Data Center Loads

What Does This Mean for Resource Adequacy in PJM?

Combining the resource exit, entry and increases in demand, summarized in Figure 7, the study identified some areas of concern. Approximately 40 GW PJM’s fossil fuel fleet resources may be pressured to retire as load grows into the 2026/2027 Delivery Year. 

The projected total capacity from generating resources would not meet projected peak loads, thus requiring the deployment of demand response. By the 2028/2029 Delivery Year and beyond, at Low New Entry scenario levels, projected reserve margins would be 8%, as projected demand response may be insufficient to cover peak demand expectations, unless new entry progresses at a levels exhibited in the High New Entry scenario. This will require the ability to maintain needed existing resources, as well as quickly incentivize and integrate new entry 

The 2024/2025 BRA, which executed in December 2022, highlighted another area of uncertainty. Queue capacity with approved ISAs/WMPAs is currently very high, approximately 35 GW-nameplate, but resources are not progressing into construction.

There has only been about 10 GW-nameplate moving to in service in the past three years. There may still be risks to new entry, such as semiconductor supply chain disruptions or pipeline supply restrictions, which are preventing construction despite resources successfully navigating the queue process. 

About that Queue

After applying the logistical regression model for 10 years of historical project completion (Y-queue to present) without project stage, approximately 15.3 GW-nameplate/8.7 GW-capacity were deemed commercially probable out of 178 GW of projects examined. 

The model results for thermal resources were reasonably in line with expectations. However, the model produced extremely low entry from onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, solar-hybrid and storage resources.  

Mish Synopsis 

• Expect to pay much higher prices for electricity 
• Expect brownouts
• Expect missed targets 
• Expect most of the thousands of project requests on hold to be economically unviable.
• Expect many economically unviable projects to continue anyway paid for by taxpayer subsidies.
• Expect much higher inflation. 
• Don’t expect any of this to do a damn thing for the environment.

Question of the Day – How Fast Will the Shift to EVs happen?

In case you missed it, please consider Question of the Day – How Fast Will the Shift to EVs happen?

The faster the shift, the higher and faster the inflation.

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 3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

“You Are Killing Us!”: Southern California Gas Seeks 13 Percent Monthly Bill Increase

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The pain might not be over for southern California gas customers.

As millions recover from exorbitant utility bills, the state is considering Southern California Gas Company’s (SoCalGas) request to raise monthly rates by 13.2 percent next year for the 5.9 million households and businesses it serves.

Although the increase is a routine request made by SoCalGas every four years, it comes at a time when many residents are paying as much as 300 percent more for gas.

Skyrocketing costs for natural gas sent bills soaring in February because of inventory shortages strained by the Ukraine conflict, restrictions on licensing and drilling, and increased national electric power needs.

“SoCalGas files this [rate increase] during a time of transformative change,” SoCalGas President Maryam Brown said in a release in May. “Events in California and around the world have shown us that maintain[ing] the safety, reliability, and affordability of our local energy systems remain critically important.”

The revenue increase is expected to cost an average customer about $8.30 more for each bill and will cover operation, maintenance, and upgrade costs, according to the company. SoCalGas doesn’t make money on the natural gas it supplies customers.

News of the possible rate increase has sparked some opposition from residents who commented on the state’s utility commission website.

“I am vehemently against the proposed increase and feel that it borders on being criminal,” a Cathedral City man wrote. “I would encourage the [California Public Utilities Commission] to look at other ways [of managing expenses] to prevent such an increase.”

A Riverside resident on a fixed income told the commission her bill had already increased to $650.

“You are killing us! We need the heat in order to live,” the woman wrote. “This is just price gouging your customers and forcing people to live miserable lives. Stop the insanity.”

According to SoCalGas, about 58 percent of the increase will be spent to modernize and upgrade infrastructure, including paying for safety-related costs. Another 34 percent will pay for growth and development of clean fuels to help meet the state’s environmental goals, and improvements to customer service. The remainder will cover increased personnel costs to fund the company’s compensation programs.

SoCalGas and the California Public Utilities Commission will host two online public forums March 6 and March 15 to hear public comments and concerns about the increase.

The public can also provide written comments to the state’s utility commission. About 15 people commented by Feb. 27.

A judge assigned to the case will consider proposals and evidence presented during the hearing and is expected to decide whether to approve the application.

If approved, the rate increase would show up on bills beginning Jan. 1, 2024.

USA COVID//

The narrative is coming out fast and furious:  Sen. Daines of Montana states that he has seen enough evidence to conclude China’s cover up of the Covid 19 origins

(EpochTimes)

WHO Was ‘Complicit’ In China’s Cover-Up Of COVID-19 Origins: Sen. Daines

TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 05:25 PM

Authored by Samantha Flom and Melina Wisecup via The Epoch Times,

The World Health Organization (WHO) was “complicit” in helping China’s communist regime cover up the origins of COVID-19, according to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.).Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) questions U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he testifies at a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 3, 2022. (Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images)

Speaking with NTD News, The Epoch Times’ sister outlet, Daines on Feb. 27 suggested that the WHO could not be trusted due to its compliance with in China’s attempts to hide the truth of how the pandemic began.

“Based on what we are seeing in the latest intelligence reports about the origin of COVID—that there’s credible evidence now that it may indeed have been a leak out of the Wuhan lab, given the role that WHO played in many ways of being complicit with the Chinese and covering up what happened in Wuhan—I think … you’re going to see a lot of new questions as the evidence continues to come out of Wuhan as to what really happened to the origins of the COVID,” the senator said.

Daines’ remarks came amid calls from his fellow senators for the Biden administration to declassify a U.S. Energy Department report that concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated from a Wuhan laboratory leak.

According to a Feb. 26 Wall Street Journal report, the assessment was described in a document update by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. The report added that officials who had access to the classified report said the judgement was made with “low confidence,” given the lack of access to China. The FBI, in its own 2021 assessment, came to the same conclusion but with “moderate confidence,” the WSJ said.

As news of the report has spread, cries for transparency have erupted on Capitol Hill, including from Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), and Mike Braun (R-Ind.), all of whom said they felt the information should be declassified.

“The Biden administration has new ‘intel’ pointing to a lab leak,” Braun wrote in a Monday tweet. “The American people deserve to see it!”

The Senate Republicans’ concerns were also shared by their counterparts in the House, as House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) called on the Energy Department, State Department, and the FBI to provide documents and testimony on the matter.

“Since April 2, 2020, Committee on Oversight and Accountability Republicans have been investigating the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s role in obscuring the truth regarding the initial outbreak, and whether any U.S. taxpayer dollars funded the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s (WIV) dangerous gain-of-function research,” the lawmakers wrote in letters to the three departments. “The Select Subcommittee is now the only Committee in Congress with explicit jurisdiction to conduct this wide-ranging and important investigation.”

Uncovering the truth, the congressmen added, “is vital to U.S. national security, critical to the prevention of future pandemics, and will bring some semblance of closure to the families of those who lost loved ones during the pandemic.”

At a White House press briefing on Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby addressed the subject, noting that the president agreed that determining the source of the pandemic was important, but added, “There is not a consensus right now in the U.S. government about exactly how COVID started.”

Braun, responding to that comment via Twitter, said: “Let the American people decide for themselves. Declassify all COVID origins intel.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the World Health Organization for comment.

end

Moron!!

Biden Supports ‘Safe And Secure’ Gain-of-Function Research, White House Says

TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

While the White House reported Monday that the U.S. intelligence community has not yet reached a “consensus” on the origins of the COVID-19 virus, the Biden administration voiced support for the practice of gain-of-function research, so long as it was done safely, securely, and with transparency.

As complicated as it is complex, such research generally refers to the intentional manipulation of viruses to make them more transmissible, and therefore more dangerous, in order to study them. Critics argue the risks outweigh any potential reward if this kind of research goes wrong.

Congressional Republicans, led by Sens. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, and Rand Paul, say that the coronavirus likely leaked from a Chinese research facility in Wuhan that was engaging in that kind of research and have called for a moratorium on federal funding to any university or organizations conducting gain-of-function studies.

When RealClearPolitics asked Monday if President Biden thought gain of function was “prudent,” John Kirby, the president’s National Security Council spokesman replied that he did.

“He believes that it’s important to help prevent future pandemics, which means he understands that there has to be legitimate scientific research into the sources or potential sources of pandemics so that we understand it so that we can prevent them and we prevent them from happening obviously,” Kirby said before adding that the president believed any such research “must be done in a safe and secure manner and as transparent as possible to the rest of the world.”

To sum up, Kirby then told RCP, “I think that’s a fancy way of saying ‘yes.’”

The Obama administration reached a different conclusion in 2014 and halted taxpayer funding for such research. Three years later, during the Trump administration, the National Institute of Health lifted that moratorium.

Republicans have accused the NIH of funding gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology through an intermediary, the American biomedical company EcoHealth Alliance. Dr. Anthony Fauci, formerly the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress in May of 2021 that NIH “has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

Critics have returned to that controversy in light of new reporting by the Wall Street Journal that the Energy Department has concluded the COVID-19 most likely arose from a laboratory leak. That theory was first posited during the Trump administration and widely dismissed at the time as a conspiracy theory. It increasingly seems plausible after a separate earlier analysis by the FBI concluded that the lab in Wuhan was the “likely” origin of the virus.

“If we have learned anything from this pandemic, it’s that risky virus-enhancing research – like the type conducted in Wuhan that was funded by the U.S. government – needs more oversight and regulation,” Rand Paul told RCP.

A physician and a vocal critic of Fauci, Paul added that “worldwide approximately 15 million people died – the memory of their deaths demands that we have more scrutiny of this dangerous research.”

Congressional Republicans already promised more oversight and investigations into the issue, especially after the Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General wrote in a report last month that “NIH did not effectively monitor or take timely action to address” whether EcoHealth Alliance complied with reporting requirements. 

The White House did not confirm the WSJ report but reiterated that Biden had “doubled down” and ordered that considerable resources are put behind “getting to the bottom of the origins of COVID-19.” Republicans, meanwhile, continue to argue that Biden is going soft on Beijing.

“The Biden White House won’t have credibility on safe scientific research so long as it continues to dismiss the growing evidence that COVID came from a gain-of-function lab accident in China,” Marco Rubio, the ranking member on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told RCP.

Biden drew the ire of Republicans last summer when his administration declined to say whether the president personally urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to cooperate with international investigations of the pandemic’s origin. So far, Beijing has not done so, blocking the World Health Organization, for instance, from conducting additional on-the-ground probe.

Asked if the president has broached the issue, Kirby noted how the administration has regularly called on Beijing to be more transparent and told RCP that Biden called for additional cooperation “when he met with President Xi in Bali just a couple of months ago.” A White House readout of that meeting, as the New York Post reported at the time, did not include any mention of the origins of COVID.

Controversy continues on the gain-of-function front. The National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NASB) recommended sweeping new changes to how the government regulates gain-of-function experiments last month. As the New York Times reported, the decision now rests with the Biden administration as it seeks to balance the apparent need for research to prevent a pandemic with the possibility of that kind of research inadvertently jumpstarting a plague.

“If the government implements the spirit of what they’ve written,” Gregory Koblentz, a biodefense specialist at George Mason University, told the Times, “this would be a major overhaul of dual-use research oversight in the United States.”

That kind of research remains “vital for ensuring the United States is prepared to rapidly detect, respond to, and recover from future infectious disease threats,” Acting NIH Director Lawrence Tabak said last year. What is needed is balance, he explained in a February 2021 statement announcing the review by the NASB board. “Such research can be inherently high risk given the possibility of biosafety lapses or deliberate misuse,” Tabak said. “However, not doing this type of research could impair our ability to prepare for and/or respond to future consequential biological threats.”

As the New York Times noted, the White House will soon decide whether to adopt the new recommendations for how gain of function should be handled. Biden, as Kirby told RCP, believes that kind of research can be done prudently.

end

Woody Harrelson Doubles Down, Slams COVID Mandates: US Is “Not A Free Country”

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 03:00 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Following a 30 second bit on SNL where he branded big pharma as a ‘cartel’ forcing it’s drugs on people with government consent, actor Woody Harrelson has further spoken out against COVID mandates.

In an interview with the New York Times, Harrelson warned that America is no longer a free country, branding COVID protocols as “rather absurd.”

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When asked what was “absurd about the COVID protocols,” Harrelson replied, “The fact that they’re still going on!”

“I don’t think that anybody should have the right to demand that you’re forced to do the testing, forced to wear the mask and forced to get vaccinated three years on,” the Zombieland star asserted.

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“I’m just like, let’s be done with this nonsense,” Harrelson continued, adding “It’s not fair to the crews. I don’t have to wear the mask. Why should they? Why should they have to be vaccinated? How’s that not up to the individual? I shouldn’t be talking about this [expletive].”

“It makes me angry for the crew. The anarchist part of me, I don’t feel that we should have forced testing, forced masking and forced vaccination,” he continued.

“That’s not a free country,” he further warned, adding

“Really I’m talking about the crew. Because I can get out of wearing a mask. I can test less. I’m not in the same position they’re in, but it’s wrong. It’s three years. Stop.”

Cue the normie backlash…

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*  * *

END

Face-Masks & Lab-Leaks No Match For Progressive Ideology

WEDNESDAY, MAR 01, 2023 – 04:20 PM

Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com,During much of the COVID pandemic, progressives intimidated, insulted, and sought to censor those who questioned the efficacy of face masks or wondered if the virus might have leaked from a lab in China.Displaying their trademark belief that they always possess the truth, progressive politicians, activists, and journalists attacked those who opposed mask mandates as enemies of science and smeared lab leak proponents as peddlers of a fringe “conspiracy theory.”Now their tattered narrative regarding COVID-19 is being ripped apart even more by the insistent foe of ideology – reality. On Sunday we learned that the Department of Energy has concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic probably began with the leak of the virus from a Chinese lab. This comes on the heels of an authoritative new study that found face masks have provided no measurable protection to the public.In fairness, neither piece of information is the final word on these subjects.The DOE reportedly has “low confidence” in the classified intelligence reports informing its view; the FBI expressed “moderate confidence” in its 2021 determination that a lab leak likely caused the pandemic.The mask study’s conclusion – based on a review of many other studies on masks by the well-respected Cochrane Review – was more robust, as its lead author, Oxford’s Tom Jefferson, stated: “There is just no evidence that they make any difference. Full stop.” But other respected experts argue that the study is not definitive.These developments – along with previous studies questioning the effectiveness of lockdowns – should provoke deep soul-searching for progressives who were as wrong as one can be on matters of profound consequence. They will not, because of the left’s anti-democratic impulses.To begin, the problem with the progressives’ response to COVID was not that they were mistaken during a time of fog and murk, or even that they used their power to push questionable policies. Such failings are an expression of the human condition. It was, instead, their illiberal assault on the core values of free and open debate that – when allowed to work properly — allow us to identify, address, and overcome those failings.American democracy has thrived because of its optimistic humility regarding human understanding. We’ve been driven by the recognition that knowledge is ever evolving, that there is always a better way. Putting these ideas into action requires free speech and open inquiry, as well as the belief that good ideas can come from any Horatio Alger quarter, and that the best ones will triumph in the rough and tumble marketplace of ideas.This approach is necessarily fractious; human beings instinctively resist change and resist making room for others. Indeed, our country has failed when it has turned its back on this hurly-burly freedom in the name of rigid ideologies and beliefs.Sadly, many of today’s progressives, who control most of the levers of power, largely reject this fact-based tradition.Embracing an ideology that hinges on the faith that they know best – that they are duty-bound to lead the masses who aren’t equipped to make good decisions – they cast themselves as secular popes who know the truth on every matter.Because their authority rests on their expertise, progressives are largely incapable of admitting error.When their policies fall short – Lyndon B. Johnson said his Great Society programs aimed “not only to relieve the symptom of poverty, but to cure it and, above all, to prevent it” – they inevitably blame a lack of resources or resistant people. Give them any intractable issue, from health care to education, and they will insist that they know what works; all that’s holding them back is money, will, and power.When their failures are more cut and dried, they try to minimize the damage by rewriting history. For example, despite unequivocal proof that Donald Trump did not conspire with Vladimir Putin to steal the 2016 election, they still suggest that he did. In response to these recent COVID revelations, I predict progressives will claim that they did the best they could with the information they had, all the while purging our collective memory of the ways they limited the range of permissible facts and ideas.My mind has changed about progressives as they have become even more radical in recent years. Once I despaired that Godot would arrive before the scales fell from their eyes. But at least that thought contained a ray of hope. Now I see that they know what’s going on and just don’t care. Like so many figures now on the ash heap of history, they choose ideology over experience every time.

SWAMP STORIES

Lori Lightfoot loses her re election bid coming in third place.  To tell you the truth, i am amazed she garnered 16% of the vote.

(zerohedge)

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot Loses Re-Election, Comes In Third-Place

TUESDAY, FEB 28, 2023 – 10:30 PM

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot – who claimed last year to have the biggest dick in the city, lost her bid for re-election Tuesday after failing to advance to a runoff in the Chicago mayoral race, according to AP.

The loss makes her the first Chicago mayor to lose re-election since 1983.

Lightfoot finished third with 16.4% of the vote, while former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas finished at 35.02%, and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson at 20.25%. The two will now advance to the April 4 runoff as the two candidates who got the most votes.

“Obviously, we didn’t win the election. But, I stand here with my head held high and my heart full of thanks,” Lightfoot told supporters right before 9 p.m., the Chicago Sun Times reports.

“You will not be defined by how you fall. You will be defined by how hard you work and how much you do for other people.”

Or, in Lightfoot’s case, she will be defined by the following:

• “F**k Clarence Thomas!” Shouts Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot During Pride Parade
• Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot Granting Interviews “Only To Black Or Brown Journalists”
• Did Chicago Punish Car Dealership Rocked By $1 Million Theft After Lightfoot Called Owner An “Idiot”?
• Chicago’s Ex-City Attorney Brands Mayor Lori Lightfoot A ‘Disaster’ After $2.9 Million Settlement Over Botched Police Raid
• Chicago Homicide Crisis Worsens As Mayor Lightfoot Fails To Quell Violence
• Illinois Sheriffs Reject Mayor Lightfoot’s Urgent Plea To Cover Police Shortage In Crime-Hit Chicago

“I haven’t been this happy since my son returned from Afghanistan,” said Vallas, adding “We will have a safe Chicago. We will make Chicago the safest city in America.”Chicago mayoral candidate and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas speaks to a customer at Manny’s Deli in the West Loop on Election Day. Pat Nabong/Sun-Times

Johnson, meanwhile, “appears to have claimed a large share of undecided African-American voters who were “searching” for an alternative to Lightfoot,” according to the Sun Times.Chicago mayoral candidate and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson greets Mayor Lori Lightfoot at Manny’s Deli in the West Loop on Election Day. Pat Nabong/Sun-Times

What’s next for Lightfoot?

end

THE KING REPORT

The King Report March 1, 2023 Issue 6958Independent View of the News French February EU Harmonized CPI increased to 7.2% y/y and 1% m/m; 7% & 1% were consensus.  Food inflation increased to 14.5% y/y in February from 13.3% in January.  February CPI rose to 0.9% m/m from 0.4%; 1% was expected.  Y/y Cpi increased to 6.2% from 6%; 6.1% was consensus.   Spain’s February EU Harmonized CPI jumped to 1.0% m/m from -0.4%; 0.9% was expected.  Y/y EU Harmonized CPI increased to 6.1% from 5.7%; 5.9% was expected.  CPI jumped to 1% m/m from -0.2%; 0.7% was consensus.  Y/y CPI increased to 6.1% from 59%; 5.8% was consensus.   Surprise Jumps in French, Spanish Inflation Heap Pressure on ECBFrench consumer prices rose 7.2% in February, Spanish 6.1%Numbers are part of raft of European inflation data this weekInvestors boosted bets on the peak for European Central Bank interest rates to 4% for the first time after inflation in France and Spain came in unexpectedly hot… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/french-inflation-hits-record-heaping-pressure-on-ecb-and-macron   US Consumer Confidence Drop on More Pessimistic OutlookThe Conference Board index decreased to 102.9 in February (108.5 exp, 106 prior from 107.1)Measure of expectations fell to 69.7 (76 prior, revised from 77.8), lowest since Julyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/us-consumer-confidence-drops-on-more-pessimistic-outlook   February Chicago PMI 43.6 (44.3 in Jan), 45.5 expected Dec FHFA House Price Index -0.1% m/m, -0.2% consensus Dec S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.51% m/m & +5.76% y/y, -0.4% m/m expected   ESHs traded higher during early Nikkei trading; but the entire gain was rescinded by the Japanese close.  ESHs sank after France and Spain’s troubling CPI reports.  ESHs and stocks hit daily lows at 3:16 ET.  Traders and money managers then aggressively bought stuff to embellish February performance.   ESHs and stocks hit daily highs at 7:18 ET.  ESHs and stocks then sank until the rally after the NYSE opening appeared.  But sellers reappeared at 10:06 ET.  ESHs and stocks then retreated until they got near the NYSE opening lows.  After a spike higher, ESHs and stocks peaked at 11:18 ET.  ESHs and stocks then sank into the European close.  There were too many trading longs for organic buyers to absorb.   After a retreat, a robust Noon Balloon developed; it ended when the afternoon arrived.  ESHs and stocks then flatlined until a declined materialized after 14:00 ET.  ESHs and stocks tumbled into the close.   USHs hit a low of 124 9/32 at 9:38 ET.  They rallied steadily, peaking at 125 15/32 (+5/32) at 15:38 ET.   US attaches childcare strings to chip-maker subsidies Companies seeking to tap a new $40bn (£33bn) pool of government subsidies for the semiconductor industry will be required to submit plans for how they will provide workers with childcare.  The condition marks an unusual use of the federal government’s powers…  https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64792718   WSJ Editorial Board: Biden’s Regulatory Deluge Gridlock in D.C.? Nope, the administrative state is at full throttle.  President Biden is leading an unprecedented expansion of the administrative state. In two years, his Administration has imposed 517 regulatory actions with some $318 billion in total costs… By the same point in his Administration, President Obama had imposed 740 comparable rules with a cost of $208 billion. Across four years President Trump imposed 1,340 rules at a cost of $64.7 billion… https://t.co/C6I1yMPOOp   Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied 1 7/32 from their low Fangs rallied on February performance gaming   Negative aspects of previous session Feb. performance gaming attempts mostly failed on Thursday and totally failed on Friday   Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big of a risk is the ugly geopolitical situation to dollar-denominate assets?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3978.88 Previous session High/Low: 3997.50; 3968.98   China’s CCP warns Elon Musk against sharing Wuhan lab leak report (Truth hurts?) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/28/chinas-ccp-warns-elon-musk-against-sharing-wuhan-lab-leak-report.html   Fauci discussed ‘chimeras’ with Wuhan research collaborator in Feb. 2020, email suggests Research team finds novel coronavirus with MERS spike protein in Wuhan “rice sequencing study,” undermining argument denying COVID lab manipulation…    Anthony Fauci discussed “the outbreak and chimeras” — fragments from different viruses stitched together into a new creation — with an American scientist collaborating with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in February 2020, Freedom of Information Act documents suggest… A new preprint study, not yet peer-reviewed, found a “novel coronavirus contaminating agricultural rice RNA sequencing datasets from Wuhan, China,” whose composition suggests gain-of-function research related to Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, caused by a coronavirus from the same family as COVID-19… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fauci-discussed-chimeras-wuhan-research-collaborator-feb-2020-email   Cardiac testing at Washington public event found 53% myocarditis rate, including 2 active duty US military pilots  (News8 WTNH removed the story from their web site) https://makismd.substack.com/p/cardiac-testing-at-washington-public    @btysonmd: They deleted the link, but here is screenshot of the story.  Why the media continues to censor the truth blows my mind. https://t.co/0RNm2ibi8E   FBI director says COVID pandemic ‘most likely’ originated from Chinese lab https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-director-says-covid-pandemic-most-likely-originated-chinese-lab   GOP comes out swinging at China: 5 hearings, votes on a dozen bills aimed at CCP https://t.co/H2F50IQIFz   NYT: Biden Deploys High-Powered Aides, Plus More Aid, to Bolster Ukraine Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to Kyiv the day before Secretary of State Antony Blinken was to visit Central Asia in a show of American solidarity with Ukraine in its battle with Russia…    Mr. Blinken was to arrive on Tuesday in Kazakhstan to urge senior Central Asian officials from the former Soviet republics convening there to maintain their independence from Russia and China and not to be complicit in Moscow’s attempts to evade sanctions… For Ms. Yellen, Monday’s unannounced trip to Kyiv highlighted how intertwined national security and economic security have become…    There is growing political resistance from Republicans, who are increasingly arguing that the amounts of aid going to Ukraine are risking becoming unaffordable.  Ms. Yellen’s visit was intended to counter that sentiment a month after Mr. Zelensky vowed to take action against corruption in the wake of an official’s dismissal for embezzlement…    “We will continue to work with our international coalition to provide military, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine,” Ms. Yellen said. “And we will continue to impose severe costs on the Kremlin for its illegal war.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-yellen-blinken-russia.html   Janet Yellen Claims U.S. Taxpayers Have ‘Duty’ to Defend Ukraine’s Border from Invasion Yellen said the American support “is motivated, first and foremost, by a moral duty to come to the aid of a people under attack.”… (How about the Constitutional Article IV duty to defend US borders?) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/02/27/janet-yellen-claims-u-s-taxpayers-have-duty-defend-ukraines-border-invasion/   Ukraine finds stepping up mobilisation is not so easy Military recruiters are accused of rough tactics as they try to boost the headcount    Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year… https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy    @ggreenwald: Zelensky, even with martial law declared, is having so much difficulty finding Ukrainian men willing to fight and die in the war that they are using extreme and often violent means to conscript unwilling soldiers. Corruption is one of the few ways out.   Fire put out at Russian oil depot after drone seen overhead Russian officials have often blamed Kyiv for sending drones into Russian territory. Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for similar incidents, while sometimes hinting it was behind them. https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-depot/fire-put-out-at-russian-oil-depot-after-drone-seen-overhead-ria-idUKL8N3582UB   FAA investigating ‘close call’ between JetBlue flight, Learjet at Boston airport (on Monday) FAA says Learjet took off ‘without clearance’ at Logan International Airport (Why is this recurring?) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/faa-investigating-close-call-jetblue-learjet-boston-logan-airport   Fed might raise policy rates to 6% – BofA Strong U.S. consumer demand and a tight labor market would force the central bank to battle inflation for longer…  http://reut.rs/3Zt9x4U   @NickTimiraos: Directors of three Fed banks (Cleveland, St. Louis and Minneapolis) sought a 50-bps increase in the discount rate in mid-January https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20230228a1.pdf   Today – Traders will play for a start of March rally even though the manipulations to embellish February performance were greatly disappointing.  The S&P 500 Index high on Tuesday was 3997.50.  4000 is important resistance.  The S&P 500 Index closed 9 handles below its 50-day moving average.   With the sharp late NYSE tumble and ESHs hit -19.50 at 20:00 ET, traders are trapped on the long side.   Expected economic data: Feb S&P Global US Mfg PMI 47.8; Feb ISM Mfg 48, Prices Paid 45; Jan Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; Feb Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.7m; Min Fed Kashkari 9 ET   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3979; 100-day MA: 3919; 150-day MA: 3947; 200-day MA: 3940 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,551; 100-day MA: 32,978; 150-day MA: 32,606; 200-day MA: 32,350   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4077.17 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4014.91 triggers a buy signal   Pennsylvania Republicans demand Fetterman either appear on camera or else resign Senator has been hospitalized for two weeks due to alleged depression. https://justthenews.com/government/pennsylvania-republicans-demand-fetterman-either-appear-camera-or-else-resign   Social media rumors allege Fetterman was hospitalized for another debilitating injury and not the alleged depression.  Fetterman’s wife and children unfathomable went to Canada when the senator was hospitalized.  Reports suggest (we can’t verify) that if Fetterman resigns or cannot perform his duties before August 18, a special election, that the GOP would be favored to win, must occur.  After August 18, PA’s democratic governor can appoint a person to the senate seat.   Newsweek: John Fetterman’s Wife Leaving the Country Raises Questions https://www.newsweek.com/john-fetterman-wife-leaving-country-raises-questions-1784308   GOP Rep @mtgreenee: I was attacked in a restaurant tonight by an insane woman and screamed at by her adult son.  They had no respect for the restaurant or the staff or the other people dining or people like me who simply have different political views. They are self-righteous, insane, and completely out of control.  I was sitting at my table, working with my staff, and never even noticed these people… People used to respect others even if they had different views. But not anymore. Our country is gone.   @GOPoversight: It’s alarming @POTUS is nominating Julie Su as the next @USDOL Secretary.  At least $32 billion in unemployment insurance was lost to fraud on her watch in California.  Now she’s being handed the keys to the entire UI program.  “In fact, murderers, people on death row, deceased individuals, and organized crime members in China and Russia fraudulently amassed extraordinary amounts of money on her watch…” https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-bidens-labor-secretary-nomination-alarming-for-taxpayers%ef%bf%bc/   Biden Administration Asks Congress to Reauthorize Warrantless Surveillance Law Facing steeper political headwinds than past cycles, the executive branch is packaging the spying authority known as Section 702 as more than a counterterrorism tool. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/us/politics/biden-warrantless-surveillance-section-702.html   Biden admin grilled over $23 bln in licenses for blacklisted Chinese firms (Just in Q1 2022!) The Biden administration approved more than $23 billion worth of licenses for companies to ship U.S. goods and technology to blacklisted Chinese companies in the first quarter of 2022, a Republican lawmaker said on Tuesday… (China owns Joe!) https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-approved-23-bln-worth-licenses-ship-us-tech-blacklisted-chinese-companies-2023-02-28/   US Marshals hit with ‘major’ hack, sensitive data compromised  https://t.co/h8rStPb643

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter  interviewing Alex Newman

Deep State Absolutely Wants to Kill You – Alex Newman

Deep State Absolutely Wants to Kill You – Alex Newman

By Greg Hunter On March 1, 2023 In Political Analysis4 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular books “Deep State” and “Crimes of the Educators,” predicted at the beginning is this year that the Deep State demons will have one crisis after another to keep people confused and afraid.  The latest crisis is the economic and ecological disaster in East Palestine, Ohio.  Newman says expect many more disasters and explains, “All across the country we are seeing very bizarre things happen.  Factories and chemical plants going up in flames, food processing facilities blowing up, airplanes crashing in mysterious ways, and I think we are heading into an era of really serious crisis.  Last summer, I was putting together the wave of crises that the Deep State was preparing for us, and one of the terms I used was ‘polycrisis.’  Then, right before the World Economic Forum meeting this year, they actually put on their website is 2023 the year of the polycrisis?  Of course, it will be the year of the polycrisis.  I think we are prepared and being groomed for cyber-attacks, currency crisis, economic crisis and, of course, Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan.  I think all of this is going to be used for a series of never-ending crises until we are ready to give up our freedoms, give up our national sovereignty and self-government, and move towards this crazy totalitarian, technocratic system they want.”

Newman says it’s not going to be a kind transition for most people.  Newman says, “The thing that is so hard for people to understand is that there are very powerful people that are working together, and they absolutely want to kill you.  That is not speculation.  These people have been openly saying for a century that they believe there are too many people on this planet. . . .  The eugenics movement never died.  Margaret Sanger, the Rockefellers, Dr. Joseph Mengele was funded by the Rockefeller dynasty.  These people are very much still around.  Bill Gates is the perfect example.  His dad was on the board of Planned Parenthood, the largest butcher of unborn babies in America. . . . Bill Gates says openly and frequently that there are too many people on this planet.  He wants to use vaccines and healthcare to reduce the number of people on the planet.”

Newman has a dark warning for America and explains, “Now that they are done with America and we are no longer useful and an obstacle to this global agenda, they need to knock us out.  They may not want to resort to nuclear bombs, but if they did, it would not surprise me. . . .  America is founded on very important ideals, and these are, once again, making a resurgence.  Our self-evident truths that are enshrined in our Constitution, that God created us equally, that God gave us the right to property.  God gave us our right to life.  Government exists to protect these rights.  These are Biblical ideas distilled into a political document. . . . These are ideals that are fundamental to liberty, and as long as the United States exists in its present form . . . . America is a major threat to this agenda.  I don’t think we should put it past them that they would use nuclear bombs against us.  I also think there is a fifth column in Washington that would be more than happy to collaborate.

There is much more in the 35-min interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the book “Deep State” for 3.1.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/deep-state-absolutely-wants-to-kill-you-alex-newman)

After the Interview:

Newman’s website is called LibertySentinel.org.  There is lots of free information and articles.

To get a copy of “The Great Reset” DVD, click here.

To get a copy of “Transhumanism: War on Humanity & God” DVD, click here.

For a copy of Alex Newman’s popular book “Deep State” click here and for Crimes of the Educators, click here.

I will see you  tomorrow 

Harvey