Mar 7 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $33.20 at $1815.85

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.88 to $20.15

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1814.25

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.09

Bitcoin morning price:, 22368 DOWN 57 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,097 DOWN 331 dollars

Platinum price closing $936.10 DOWN $42.15

Palladium price; closing $1394.40 DOWN $53.10

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,495.50 DOWN $18.85 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1534.50 DOWN 0.95 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1720.02 DOWN 7.81 euros per oz

COMEX DATA

EXCHANGE: COMEX

COMEX//NOTICES FILED 0 oz of gold

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICES FOR 0 OZ or 0.00 TONNES

total notices so far: 2169 contracts for 216,900 oz (6.7465 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 59 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 295,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 2857 for 14,289,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.143. MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 360 CONTRACTS TO 122,402 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.13 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER WAS SET AT 121,299 MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.13). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 610 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 250 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 340,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 14.745 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 15.745 MILLION OZ/ //// V) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –29 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 1701 contracts: OR 8.505 MILLION OZ . (340 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 8.505 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 8.505 MILLION OZ//INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 360 DESPITE OUR $0.13 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 250 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 340,000 QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 15.745 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 639 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD 59 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 295,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3464 CONTRACTS TO 441,454 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1559 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3464 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR TINY $0.55 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 100 OZ (0.00311 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.55 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6099 OI CONTRACTS (18.970 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2635 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,454

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6099 CONTRACTS WITH 3464 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2635 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6099 CONTRACTS OR 18.97 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2635 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3464) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6099 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 6.9642 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 14,569 CONTRACTS OR 1,456,900 OZ OR 45.32 TONNES 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2913 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 45.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 45.32/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 45.32 TONNES/INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 389 CONTRACTS OI TO 122,431 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2023.

EFP ISSUANCE 250 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 250 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 360 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 610 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //3.05 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.13 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.93 PTS OR 1.11% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 68.61 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei closed UP 71.381% PTS OR 0.25% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.49% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9356 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9457// /Oil UP TO 79,89 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.71 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3464 CONTRACTS UP TO 441,454 DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.55.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2635 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2363 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2635 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6099 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2635 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 3464 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.55. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (6.9642) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 6.9642 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $0.55) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6099 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 18.97 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 100 OZ (0.003211 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.55.

WE HAD -1559 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6099 CONTRACTS OR 609,900 OZ OR 18.97 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 272,727// //fair

final gold volumes/yesterday 155,212/// poor

//MARCH 7/MARCH 2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	96,453.000 oz JPMorgan 2 tonnes 2,000 kilobars) .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ Brinks
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	0 notice(s) 0 OZ 0.00 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	70 contracts 7000 oz 0.2177 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	2169 notices 216,900 6.7465 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of JPMorgan; 96,453.000 o

(2,000 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 96453.000 oz

in tonnes: 2 tonnes

Adjustments; 1

i) Brinks: 23,417.201 oz dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 70 contracts having LOST 58 contracts. We had 59 notices filed on Monday so we

gained another 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will stand for metal at the comex

April lost 833 contracts down to 318,347 contracts

May gained 3 contracts to stand at 97

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for nil oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped 0 Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2169 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 70 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract equals 223,900 OZ OR 6.9642 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2169 x 100 oz+ 70 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0)x 100 oz} which equals 223,900 oz standing OR 6.9642 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 6.9642 TONNES.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 1,789,729.416 OZ 55.67 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,534,523.647 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,894,494.910 (338.86 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,640,0238.737 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,104,765 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.19 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAR 6/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	2.373,318.910 oz CNT Brinks Delaware HSBC JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1200,261.756 oz CNT Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	59 CONTRACT(S) (295,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	92 contracts (460,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2857 contracts (14,285,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 600,611.410 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 599,650.340 oz

Total deposits: 1200,261.756 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.605 million oz/285.730 million =51.22% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of CNT: 799,710.017 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 12,410.272 oz

iii) Out of Brinks 16,175.350 oz

iv) Out of HSBC 600,183.290 oz

v) Out of JPMorgan: 1,042,838.940 oz

Total withdrawals; 2,372,318.919 oz

adjustments: 1//JPMorgan: dealer to customer: 1,796,229.496 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 39.239MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 286.902 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 151 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 46 CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 114 NOTICES FILED

YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUGE 68 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 340,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

April LOST 10 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 400.

May LOST 689 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 104,962.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 59 for 295,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 70,202// strong//

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60,940 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2857 x 5,000 oz = 14,285,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(151) and the number of notices served upon today 59 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 2857 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (151) – number of notices served upon today (59) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 14.745 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 15.745 million oz

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 912.12 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FORM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.143 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: All Roads Lead To Hard Landing And Higher Inflation

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The markets still seem to believe the Federal Reserve can ratchet price inflation back down to 2% while bringing the economy to a relatively soft landing. In his podcast, Peter Schiff throws cold water on this hopeful narrative. He goes through the economic data that came out last week shows that all roads appear to lead to a hard landing and higher inflation.

The stock markets finished up last week thanks to optimism that the Fed will pause rate hikes this summer. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic stoked that optimism when he said he’s in favor of lower — and slower — rate hikes. “Right now I’m still in very firmly in the quarter-point move pacing.” Even though Bostic tempered his comments, saying he will go where that data takes him, Peter said that’s all the markets needed.

The bulls were grasping for straws and this is the one they grabbed.”

We saw big swings from Thursday’s lows to Friday’s highs in all the major stock indices.

Basically, all of the weekly gains were attributable to the Thursday-Friday rally, which was 100 percent the result of Fed-speak about the potential for a pause.”

There was quite a bit of weak economic data last week as well, including a 4.5% drop in durable goods orders. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -13, below the low end of expectations. The Chicago and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys were also weaker than expected. Meanwhile, the goods trade deficit was $91.5 billion.

We keep getting number after number that disappoints to the weak side on manufacturing. This flies in the face of a soft landing narrative, because it suggests that if we land at all, it’s not going to be soft. But maybe this is one of the reasons that investors are believing that we’re nearing the end of the rate hike cycle, and we’re going to get a pause followed by a pivot where we get our first cut.”

But Peter emphasized that just because we have a recession doesn’t mean inflation is coming down. In fact, it could be the exact opposite. Regardless, inflation certainly doesn’t appear to be cooling right now based on the productivity and cost numbers for the fourth quarter.

Anybody who is hoping that the Fed is winning the inflation battle, these numbers throw cold water all over that narrative.”

Productivity was down to 1.7% in Q4 from the 3.0% pace in Q3. Meanwhile, unit labor costs surged more than expected by 3.2%.

So, we have lower productivity and higher labor costs. This is not good if you think inflation is under control. The best way to control prices is with increasing productivity. But we’re not getting that. What we’re getting is increasing costs.”

Keep in mind that just because unit labor costs are rising doesn’t mean workers are getting paid more. Unit labor costs also include things like health insurance premiums, payroll taxes and regulations.

In fact, a lot of things the government does to increase labor costs results in fewer people getting hired. Because the government makes it so expensive to hire people that businesses try to avoid hiring where they can. So, they hire fewer people as a result of these rising labor costs.”

Peter reiterated that all of this flies in the face of the notion that inflation is coming under control.

And while there were a couple of better-than-expected economic data points, the rule was weak economic data.

But not only weak economic data, but inflationary data, not just with the weakness in productivity and spiking labor costs, but the fact that all of the manufacturing output is low. We need more supply. Well, we’re not getting it. We’re not producing more. We’re certainly consuming. So, where are we going to get the goods if we’re not producing them? We’re going to import them. That’s what you saw with the merchandise trade deficit. We’re importing the merchandise that we don’t have the industrial capacity to produce, and this is driving up our trade deficit, which will ultimately drive down the value of the dollar and push up domestic consumer prices.”

Peter said most of the optimism about the Fed slowing down its monetary tightening isn’t as much about the economy weakening as it is inflation weakening. But as Peter explained in a previous podcast, once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, it’s impossible to get it back in.

Peter reiterates this point by talking about inflation in the Eurozone.

What the markets still don’t get is even if we end up in a recession — in fact, even if we end up in a financial crisis — the inflation rate is not coming down. In fact, I believe the next recession will be a catalyst to send inflation to new highs. … They still don’t get the reality of stagflation. And they still don’t understand that you can have stronger inflation in a weaker economy. And in fact, this economy is going to be so weak that it’s going to supercharge inflation because the Fed is going to be forced to respond not only to the weakness in the economy, but in particular, the weakness in financial markets and the precarious fiscal position of the US government by unleashing massive inflation — maybe even more than unleashed during the lockdown periods of COVID, and that is going to send the inflation rate to new highs and bond prices to new lows.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-all-roads-lead-hard-landing-and-higher-inflatio

The fact that the ECB’s inflation goals were asinine.
The Fed will soon break its money-losing record.
Debt is going to spiral out of control.
Big money is leaving crypto.
Markets don’t get that inflation isn’t coming down.
end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

John Rubino:

This commentary is really good as Rubino explains how Japan will go bust and that will be followed by most other countries

(John Rubino)

How A Country Goes Bankrupt… In 10 Steps

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by John Rubino via Substack,

The past few decades of unnaturally easy money have created a world of “moral hazard” in which a ridiculous number of people borrowed far more than they should have.

Now, with money getting tighter, not just businesses and individuals but some governments are staring at the “suddenly” part of that old saying about bankruptcy.

Japan is the poster child for this slow walk towards – then quick rush over – a financial cliff.

Here’s how it works for a government, in 10 steps.

Step 1: Build up massive debt. A bursting real estate bubble in the 1990s confronted the Japanese government with a choice between accepting a brutal recession in which most of that debt was eliminated through default, or simply bailing out all the zombie banks and construction companies and hoping for the best. They chose bailouts, and federal debt rose from 40% of GDP in 1991 to 100% of GDP by 2000.

Step 2: Lower interest rates to minimize interest expense. Paying 6% on debt equaling 100% of GDP would be ruinously expensive, so the Bank of Japan pushed interest rates down as debt rose, thus keeping the government’s interest cost at tolerable levels.

Step 3: Continue to borrow at virtually no cost. While interest rates fell, the zombie companies soaking up public funds were joined by a growing number of retirees who began drawing on japan’s versions of Social Security and Medicare. Government spending, as a result, continued to rise and deficits kept growing, further intensifying the pressure to lower interest rates. The BoJ began buying bonds with newly-created yen to force interest rates down to zero and even below (meaning that the remaining private sector buyers of Japanese government paper actually paid for the privilege). Since the government now earned money by borrowing, there seemed to be no reason to stop, and debt soared to the current 262% of GDP, which might be the highest figure ever recorded by a major government.

Step 4: Experience sudden, sharp inflation. In 2022, all that new currency finally caused the inflation that critics of easy money had been predicting. Japan’s official cost of living is now rising at a 4% annual rate, making the real yield on a zero-percent government bond -4%.

Step 5: Experience a plunging currency. With most other central banks tightening to combat inflation, the BoJ kept buying bonds to keep its interest rates low. Investors noticed this yield differential and stopped buying yen-denominated paper, sending the yen’s exchange rate down sharply versus the US dollar.

Step 6: Reluctantly allow interest rates to rise. Also in 2022, the BoJ realized that unless it wanted to buy all the paper the government was issuing, it would have to let interest rates rise a bit. Which they very quickly did, from 0% to .25% and then .5%.

Step 7: Get swamped by interest expense. Now all the debt issued or rolled over by Japan’s government carries a cost. Let’s say the average yield rises to the current 0.5%. On debt equaling 260% of GDP, interest expense equals 1.3% of GDP, a crushing burden that adds to already massive deficits, raising overall debt and therefore interest expense going forward.

Now For The “Suddenly” Part

All of the above has either happened or is happening. The next steps are scheduled for the near future:

Step 8: Desperately try to lower rates. Recognizing that soaring interest expense spells national bankruptcy, the BoJ tries to stop and reverse the trend by buying even more government debt with ever larger amounts of newly created yen. But the world’s other central banks are much slower to ease, so the gap between yields on Japanese paper and that of, for instance, the US and Germany, continues to widen.

Step 9: Watch impotently as the yen craters. With government debt rising parabolically and no one other than the BoJ willing to buy the resulting tsunami of paper, Japan enters the realm of full-on Modern Monetary Theory, where the government just finances itself with newly created currency. The rest of the world, recognizing the inflationary implications, dumps the yen and the currency’s exchange rate goes into free fall. A falling currency raises the cost of imports, which increases inflation, which weakens the yen further, putting upward pressure on interest rates, and so on, in what headline writers call a “death spiral”.

Step 10: Game over. Japan is forced into an official devaluation/currency reset which limits its ability to spend and inflate going forward. Everyone who trusted the government and held the old currency is impoverished while those who recognized the scam and converted cash and government bonds into real assets are enriched. It’s a familiar story. But this time it’s happening to a serious country.

Questions

The possibility of a major country going off a financial cliff raises questions about how widespread the effects might be and how US investors might prepare. And of course: “How do we short Japan”? That discussion is coming in a separate post next week.

END

PAM AND RUSS MARTENS:

Over the Past Year, Inflation Eroded Your Purchasing Power while the Stock Market Ate Away Your Investment Gains

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 7, 2023

On Friday, March 4, 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,614.7971. Yesterday, one year later, the Dow closed at 33,431.44, a negligible loss of a fraction of one percent – but still a loss. The Dow is composed of just 30 stocks.

The S&P 500, a broader stock market index, includes the common stocks of 500 of the largest companies in the U.S. Over the past year, the S&P 500 fared even worse than the Dow. It went from 4,328.8729 on Friday, March 4, 2022 to yesterday’s closing price of 4,048.42 – a decline of 6 percent.

The tech heavy Nas daq Composite, which consisted of 3,607 component companies as of yesterday according to Nasdaq, delivered the worst performance of the three major indices over the past year. It traveled from 13,313.438 on Friday, March 4, 2022 to a closing price of 11,675.737 yesterday – a decline of 12.3 percent.

While the average American’s investment money was shrinking over the past 12 months, inflation was eating away at the purchasing power of their disposable income.

Among the most extreme examples of the toll of inflation on food costs was the price of eggs. As the chart below from the St. Louis Fed indicates, the average price of a box of Grade A, large eggs went from $2.046 in March of 2022 to $4.823 in January of this year.

The cold, hard facts on what the U.S. consumer’s money has been doing over the past 12 months raises puzzling questions about why consumer sentiment is holding up so well./p>

IIn June of last year, consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan Survey, slumped to the lowest recorded level since the University began collecting the data in November 1952. But as the chart below indicates, since that time consumer sentiment has made a puzzling climb back.

Another survey that takes the pulse of the U.S. consumer comes from the Conference Board. Its monthly Consumer Confidence Survey fell again in February for the second consecutive month./p>

The Conference Board’s Expectations Index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 69.7 in February from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January. The Conference Board notes that “the Expectations Index has now fallen well below 80 — the level which often signals a recession within the next year. It has been below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.”

Against this backdrop comes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifying before the Senate Banking Committee this morning on the Fed’s monetary policy. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate – the Fed Funds Rate – eight times since March 17 of last year, moving from a zero-bound interest rate policy to a current target range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent. Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee are expected to express concerns this morning that the Fed is going to crash the economy with continued rate hikes while Republicans are likely to press the Fed to reassure markets that it remains focused on bringing down long-term inflation trends.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

For your interest…

Agnico Eagle CEO mulls move to go big or get small in Australia

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-03-06 11:34Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jacob Lorinc
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Monday, March 6, 2023

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. is weighing what to do with its only Australian gold mine after landing two big takeovers within two years that turned the Canadian company into the world’s third-largest gold producer.

Agnico gained an Australian mine as part of its combination with Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd., giving it a foothold into a region beyond its North American focus.

Agnico’s latest deal, set to close this month, reinforces the Toronto-based firm’s homegrown roots by taking full control of the Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec.

Chief Executive Officer Ammar Al-Joundi said he’ll spend this year reviewing Agnico’s operations, which also includes a gold mine in Finland, to determine next steps. That, he said, will involve making a decision on a key question: “Do we get bigger in Australia or do we get smaller?”

“We like Australia, we have no intention to sell Australia, but it would be disingenuous for me to say that we’ve got this big competitive advantage in Australia when we’ve got one mine,” Al-Joundi said Friday in an interview at Bloomberg’s Toronto office. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/agnico-eagle-ceo-mulls-move-144000213.html

end

This is very interesting: the Perth Mint diluted its gold that it sold to China and others by a tiny bit

using silver or copper. The gold still was 99.99% but not .9999 that China wanted

(Australian Broadcasting Corp)

Perth Mint sold diluted gold to China, tried to cover it up

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-03-06 19:03Section: Daily Dispatches

By Angus Grigg, Ali Russell, Stephanie Zillman, and Meghna Bali
Australian Broadcasting Corp., Sydney
Sunday, March 5, 1013

The historic Perth Mint is facing a potential $9 billion recall of gold bars after selling diluted or “doped” bullion to China and then covering it up, according to a leaked internal report.

ABC’s “Four Corners” program has uncovered documents charting the Western Australian government-owned mint’s decision to begin “doping” its gold in 2018, and then how it withheld evidence from its largest client in an effort to protect its reputation.

While the gold remained above broader industry standards, the report estimated up to 100 tonnes of gold sent to Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) potentially did not comply with the exchange’s strict purity standards for silver content.

One Perth Mint insider, who asked not to be named and risk five years in jail if the insider’s identity is revealed, says it is a “scandal of the highest level.”

“I don’t know if I’ve ever seen one this big,” the insider says.

The mint is the largest processor of newly mined gold in the world, one of Perth’s top tourist attractions, and is well known for producing commemorative coins to mark everything from royal weddings to a new James Bond film.

Last year alone it sold A$20.3 billion in gold. It is the only mint in the world that has a government guarantee.

But in recent years the 124-year-old institution, officially known as Gold Corporation, has been plagued by a series of scandals. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

Special thanks to G. for sending this to us:

(Kitco/Neumeyer)

Silver mines will likely be bought by automakers like Tesla, silver to $125 per ounce – Keith Neumeyer

Cornelius Christian Monday March 06, 2023 10:21

Kitco News

Share this article:

(Kitco News) – Automotive companies like Tesla could soon purchase silver mines, as they seek to control supply over critical metals required for electric vehicles. That’s according to Keith Neumeyer, President and CEO of First Majestic Silver who forecasts that this, combined with other demand-driven factors, will send the price of silver up to $125 per ounce.

“They [automobile companies] aren’t really aware of the supply-demand fundamentals of the metal,” he claimed. “I think as they educate themselves and actually learn the challenges for the silver industry to supply the automotive sector, they will start looking at this industry a lot more aggressively… If I were Elon Musk, I’d be very active in this area.”

Neumeyer, who founded First Majestic in 2002 and has four decades of experience in the financial industry, claimed that there would be more vertical integration and consolidated supply chains as automotive manufacturers and the solar industry seek to decrease margins they pay for raw materials.

Speaking at the BMO Global Metals, Mining, & Critical Minerals Conference with Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, Neumeyer observed that 2023 is the first year that car manufacturers have been present at the conference. Some automotive companies have already bought stakes in minerals companies.

Neumeyer pointed to the fact that silver is needed for car batteries and solar panels to operate efficiently. Neumeyer observed that based on estimates, the average Tesla vehicle contains 1 kilogram of silver. As demand for electrification grows, the silver price is expected to rise.

“The estimated consumption in the solar panel industry is 160 million ounces of silver this coming year, 2023,” he claimed. “The electrical automotive sector is estimated to be slightly shy of 100 million ounces of silver… The Silver Institute is projecting an over 200-million-ounce deficit this year.”

Neumeyer forecast that silver could rise to $30 per ounce this year, while his medium to long term prediction is triple-digit silver. He suggested that a slowing economy would dampen the price of silver in the short-term

“I think silver is going to be somewhat delayed because of the economy, because it is an industrial metal,” he said. “I think we’re going to go to triple-digits [in the medium to long-term], and that has been my prediction for a couple of years now. Getting silver to $125 to $150, I think, is reasonable… we’re closer to that than we were a couple of years ago. The stars are aligning.”

To find out Neumeyer’s forecast for the gold price in 2023, watch the video above.

Silver Consortium

Neumeyer is a long-time advocate of silver miners forming a consortium so that they can sell silver directly to consumers, instead of going through derivatives markets like the COMEX and LBMA.

“[The mining sector] is at the mercy of banks, so if [banks] want to move these metals to whatever price they want to move them to, they can do it relatively easily” he claimed. “I wouldn’t necessarily call it manipulation. I think it’s just managing the book.”

The theory that the precious metals prices are manipulated to benefit the short position of commercial banks and governments has been advocated by a number of prominent voices, including mining mogul Frank Giustra.

Neumeyer suggested that this is not necessarily conspiratorial manipulation, as much as economic pressures from banks having to fulfill short positions.

To find out more about First Majestic Silver including its bullion products and mining operations, watch the video above.

Follow Michelle Makori on Twitter: @MichelleMakori

end

From Steve St Angelo: this is huge//all in costs are around $1576. per oz

Barrick and Newmont:

To the Group,

While we discuss this information, the Two Largest Gold Producers in the world, BARRICK & NEWMONT, saw their total production cost hit the HIGHEST EVER at $1,576 per oz in 2022. Maybe this doesn’t mean anything to anyone here, but I can assure you, these gold companies can’t produce gold at a loss for long, or they will go out of business.

Isn’t that quite interesting in the past 22 years, the Gold market price hasn’t gone below the Top two Gold Miners’ Total Cost of Production? A mere coincidence? 🙂

steve

Barrick-Newmont-Total-Production-Cost-vs-Price-2000-2022.png

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: +

END

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

end

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.9356

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9457

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.93 PTS OR 1.11%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 68.71 PTS OR 0.33%

2. Nikkei closed UP 71.38 PTS OR 0.25%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTYL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.77 Euro FALLS TO 1.0661 DOWN 24 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 136.15/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6745%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.4790%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.683…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.438//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)

3j Gold at $1839.75//silver at: 20.86 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 18/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.63//

3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.15/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .5000% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9339– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9958well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.936% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.872 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8695 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,92…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.840% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

end

i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rise Ahead Of Powell Senate Testimony

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 08:09 AM

US stock-index futures were fractionally higher on Tuesday erasing a modest gain earlier in the session, set for the fourth day of gains as investors waited more visibility on monetary policy from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who begins two days of testimony before the US Congress. Futures on the S&P 500 were 0.1% higher by 7:30 am ET after closing flat on Monday erasing a sizable earlier gain, while the Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 0.3%. Another positive session today would place the S&P 500 on its longest winning streak since mid-January. Helping the mood today were Treasury bond yields holding below the key 4% mark even as the dollar rose to session highs. Oil, bitcoin and gold all dropped.

In premarket trading Meta Platforms was the most notable mover, rallying 2% on news the Facebook-owner is preparing to cull thousands more employees. Cara Therapeutics dropped 30% after the biotech company’s fourth-quarter revenue missed estimates and it reported a wider-than-expected loss per share, stoking worries over demand for the company’s Korsuva kidney disease drug and prompting analysts to cut their targets on the stock. Here are other notable premarket movers:

Nutanix shares slumped as much as 9.1%, with analysts saying the delay of its 10-Q filling amid an investigation into its use of third-party evaluation software had eclipsed the cloud-platform provider’s strong preliminary results and raising of full-year guidance. Analysts said, however, that they don’t see the probe as having a big impact on the company.
Rivian Automotive shares fell 5.8% after the electric-vehicle maker announced plans to raise $1.3 billion through the sale of green convertible bonds.
Enlight Renewable Energy rose 1.2% after being initiated at Barclays and JPMorgan at overweight, and at Roth at buy, with analysts convinced of the US wind and solar project specialist’s long-term growth appeal, adding that the stock multiple is likely to rise closer to peers.

Today all eyes will be on Powell’s Senate testimony where he is expected to signal the Fed is ready to push rates higher than December’s dot plot indicated if inflation prints continue to exceed expectations, underscoring the FOMC’s resolve to get inflation under control. At the same time, he’ll acknowledge that the Fed’s dual mandate includes full employment, and that he retains hopes of achieving a soft landing for the economy (full preview here).

Many investors remain sidelined after being burnt repeatedly betting on an inflation peak, cooling US economy and Fed policy pivot. While the S&P 500 index is up 2% this month, recouping some of February’s losses – when stronger-than-expected economic and inflation data fueled concerns about a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve trying to keep price growth in check – traders are reluctant to push the gauge much higher, until they get more clarity on how high interest rates might go and whether the world’s largest economy will dodge recession.

Meanwhile, investors have upped their interest rates expectations and become more comfortable with the direction of monetary policy signaled by Powell, said John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud. “I don’t expect today’s testimony to change that,” he said, adding that the positive momentum for stocks is likely to endure. “Some will call it a bear market rally but in the meantime, that’s the direction of travel,” Plassard added.

“There have been some positive developments — growth has been better than expected and interest rates have adjusted higher without too much volatility on equities,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners. “We are at a point where the market is more or less correctly valued, so there is no need to be too negative on equities.” Savary expects the S&P 500 to stay in a range for the time being, noting that aside from the inflation question, “there are more challenges down the road on growth and it will be up to companies to show they can maintain earnings

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, there is some relief that bond yields have not extended their run higher. Ten-year US Treasury borowing costs stayed around 3.92%, unable to sustain last week’s run above 4%, with investors noting the attraction of that yield level for buyers. Retail investors are also piling into Treasuries, snapping up the most six-month T-bills in nearly 30 years at an auction.

Citigroup strategists said that the bullish positioning in S&P 500 futures last week rose, but weekly notional changes were relatively small, with positioning net long and marginally above longterm averages. They added that bearish sentiment in Nasdaq futures continued to develop despite the underlying index climbing. “Short positioning grew last week, alongside ETF outflows. With nearly all shorts offside, and losses extending, there’s an increasing risk of a near-term squeeze,” said strategists led by Chris Montagu in a note.

European stocks edge higher as surprise increase in German factory orders reinforced the picture of a resilient euro zone economy. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% with utilities, healthcare and media the strongest-performing sectors. European bonds rallied, as a European Central Bank survey showed inflation expectations declining to 2.5% for three years ahead. Here are some of Europea’s biggest movers.

Ashtead rises as much as 4.6% after the US-focused parent of the Sunbelt equipment rental firm predicts full-year results ahead of previous expectations
Premier Foods shares jump as much as 10%, reaching the highest since April, after the maker of Mr. Kipling cakes boosted its sales and profit expectations for 2023
Lufthansa shares gain as much as 1.9% in Frankfurt, wiping nearly all of the declines stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, after Barclays gave a Street high price target to the German airline
Wood Group shares jump as much as 17% after the consulting and engineering company said Apollo’s fourth proposal, at 237 pence per share, still undervalues the group
Dufry shares gain as much as 2.7% after the Swiss airport retailer’s full-year sales beat forecasts, thanks to the recovery in travel demand as well as its confirmation of mid- term targets
Zalando shares jump as much as 6% after the German online retailer delivered a profit outlook seen as slightly ahead of consensus, following 2022 earnings that beat estimates
HelloFresh shares slump as much as 13% after the meal- kit provider set profit outlook that missed expectations, with the firm pledging to shift focus away from cost mitigation to its customer base
Puma shares fall as much as 2.1% after UBS downgraded the sportswear brand to neutral from buy, saying the company’s strong market-share gains may be coming to an end
Carlsberg shares drop as much as 4% after Chief Executive Officer Cees ‘t Hart announced his decision to retire by the end of the third-quarter “at the latest”
Wincanton falls as much as 35%, the most ever, after the logistics firm says HM Revenue and Customs decided to move to another supplier for logistics services at inland border facilities
Vodafone shares fall as much as 2.3% after the CEO of top shareholder Emirates Telecommunications Group says it does not plan to bid for all of the telecom operator

Asian equities were set to snap a two-day gain as Hong Kong-listed stocks reversed an earlier advance following weak China trade data and a bout of profit-taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down as much as 0.2%, erasing an earlier advance of as much as 0.6%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed lower, with market players citing weak export data for the first two months and policy uncertainty during the National People’s Congress as possible reasons. “Net exports are likely to be hit this year,” Wendy Chen, senior investment analyst at GAM Investments said in a note. “There are fears that the strengthening Chinese RMB, geopolitical conflict, as well as a potential recession in the US and developed markets, could result in less demand from overseas.”

Chinese state-owned firms pared gains after a call for better access to funding by the general manager of Shanghai Stock Exchange boosted stocks earlier. Most other markets were in positive territory, with India’s closed for a holiday. Australian stocks climbed after the nation’s central bank lifted interest rates in line with estimates and said it expects goods inflation to moderate in coming months. Energy stocks were the biggest sectoral gainers in Asia as oil broke above its 100-day moving average.

Japanese shares climbed ahead of commentary by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later Tuesday and the Bank of Japan policy meeting later this week. The Topix Index rose 0.4% to 2,044.98 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 28,309.16. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.3%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,438 rose and 599 fell, while 123 were unchanged.

Australian stocks gained, the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.5% to close at 7,364.70, after Australia’s central bank signaled a pause in its tightening cycle after delivering a 25bps rate hike on Tuesday. “The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked,” RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement. “Recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another.” The focus on services inflation in the central bank’s statement gives “a sop to the hawks, as does the tight labor market, but a reluctance to over-tighten into a real sector slowdown looks a key factor for the RBA in what is a slightly dovish communication,” Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, wrote in a note. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 11,919.56

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung from a loss to a 0.1% gain as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the New Zealand dollar. The Australian dollar is the weakest among the G-10s, falling 0.9% versus the greenback after a dovish hike from the RBA.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0664. Bunds advanced, led by the belly of the curve, and outperforming Treauries as traders eased tightening wagers after an ECB consumer survey shows inflation expectations decreased “significantly” to 2.5% for three years ahead
The pound swung to a loss after BOE policy maker Catherine Mann said the pound could weaken further in the coming months as investors absorb the implication of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s plans to raise interest rates. Demand for low-delta exposure in cable remains in free-fall mode despite key risk events ahead. UK like-for-like retail sales climbed 4.9% from a year ago in February. It was well above the 12-month average of 1.6%
The yen was steady while dollar-yen 1-week implied volatility jumped as much as 1.49 vol to 17.11, the highest in a month, before BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s final policy meeting this week. Super-long government bonds fell after an auction drew subdued demand
Australian dollar reversed a gain, to drop against all of its G-10 peers, after the RBA hiked rates 25 basis points as expected but said that it now believes inflationhas peaked. Sovereign bond yields flipped lower

Treasuries were richer across the curve, unwinding Monday’s losses and following wider gains across bunds and gilts during European morning. TSY yields are richer by 2bp-3bp with spreads little changed on the day; 10-year around 3.94%, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 3bp-5bp in the sector, supported by a significant drop in euro-area consumer inflation expectations. German 10-year yields are down 7bps while UK 10-year borrowing costs fall 76bps. Bunds rally extended after an ECB consumer survey found inflation expectations declined “significantly” to 2.5% for three years ahead. German yields richer by ~8bp across belly of the curve with gilts long-end richer by ~7bp. Treasury auction cycle begins with $40b 3-year new issue, followed by $32b 10- and $18b 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield at 4.565% is above auction stops since 2007 and ~50bp cheaper than February’s, which tailed by 4bp. Focal points of US session include Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the Senate banking panel at 10am New York time and 3-year note auction at 1pm.

In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI down 0.2% to trade near $80.30. Spot gold falls roughly 0.2% to trade near $1,843.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Otherwise, data releases include German factory orders for January, and we’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,055.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 465.32
MXAP little changed at 162.31
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 524.63
Nikkei up 0.3% to 28,309.16
Topix up 0.4% to 2,044.98
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 20,534.48
Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,285.10
Sensex up 0.7% to 60,224.46
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,364.65
Kospi little changed at 2,463.35
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.65%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0662
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $85.97/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,845.90
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.39

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Dovish Hike. Australia’s central bank signaled a pause in its 10-month tightening cycle is in prospect, prompting a selloff in the currency after policymakers delivered an expected interest-rate increase on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate by a quarter-percentage point to 3.6%, the highest level since May 2012. Governor Philip Lowe said in his statement that in assessing “when and how much further” rates need to go up, the RBA will pay close attention to incoming economic data. Meanwhile Jerome Powell’s testimony will be scoured for views on the economic outlook, specifically inflation, wage pressures and employment, as well as clues on the Fed’s rate path. Any dovishness may spark aggressive short-covering in short-dated Treasuries. BBG
China’s trade numbers for Jan & Feb are mixed, with exports falling 6.8% YTD (vs. the St -9%) while imports drop 10.2% YTD (vs. the St -5.5%). WSJ
Conventional wisdom says the US will avoid a devastating federal payments default later this year. But conventional wisdom has proved spectacularly wrong months ahead of shocks that upended the world in recent years: the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2016 US election, the global spread of Covid-19. BBG
President Xi Jinping sought to rally China’s private sector to help overcome “containment” by the US and other countries, in rare direct criticism of the nation’s biggest trading partner. BBG
Japan wage numbers fall short of the St forecast, rising only 0.8% Y/Y in Jan (vs. the St forecast of +1.8% and down from +4.1% in Dec). RTRS
Philippines witnessed modest disinflation in Feb, with the CPI coming in at +8.6% (down from +8.7% in Jan and below the St’s +8.9% forecast). RTRS
Taiwan witnessed disinflation in Feb, with the CPI coming in at +2.43% (down from +3.04% in Jan and below the St’s +2.65% forecast) while the PPI fell to +4.1% (down from +5.61% in Jan). BBG
Thailand’s CPI witnessed disinflation in Feb, with the headline number coming in at +3.79% (down from +5.02% in Jan and below the St’s +4.1% forecast). BBG Inflation expectations drop in latest ECB survey, a development likely to bring some comfort to Lagarde and her colleagues ahead of next week’s meeting. ECB
White House will propose a plan to raise taxes on Americans earning more than $400K annually while cutting what Medicare pays for drugs in a bid to put the health program on a more sustainable fiscal footing. NYT
Meta will lay off thousands of employees this week, people familiar said. The move is driven by financial targets and is on top of the 11,000 jobs slashed in November. The plan is being finalized before Mark Zuckerberg goes on parental leave for his third child, which may be imminent. BBG
German factory orders rose 1% in January from the previous month, compared with a 0.7% decline predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The jump was due to capital goods, particularly aircraft and spacecraft construction and motor vehicle engines. BBG
Greece’s central bank governor Yannis Stournaras expects the country to regain its investment-grade credit rating within months, he told the Financial Times in an interview. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly higher although gains were capped as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data and with cautiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress. ASX 200 pared losses after the RBA rate decision where it hiked rates as expected but provided a slightly less hawkish tone in which it noted the Board expects further tightening of monetary policy will be needed which was a subtle tweak from its prior guidance that the Board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed, while it also noted that monthly CPI suggests inflation seems to have peaked. Nikkei 225 shrugged off the early weakness to trade marginally higher in the aftermath of the softer-than-expected labour earnings data including the largest decline in real wages since May 2014 which reduces the likelihood of a sooner exit from the BoJ’s ultra-easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy amid mixed Chinese trade data which showed a continued contraction in both dollar-denominated exports and imports, while it was also reported that the White House is considering pushing Congress on dealing with TikTok and that US Senators will announce a bill to comprehensively address the ongoing threat posed by technology from foreign adversaries.

Top Asian News

China’s State Councillor says they are to establish a national financial regulatory administration, to advance the reform of PBoC branches; to downsize staff of central-level state institutions by 5%. Deepen reform of local financial regulatory system. To abolish the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, regulator to become an agency directly under state council.
China’s Housing Minister says full of confidence in the stabilisation and rebound in China’s property market; says confidence among market players is recovering. The resumption rate of many housing project has been greatly improved.
Chinese President Xi condemned US-led suppression of China, according to state media cited by AFP.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said US perception of China has seriously deviated and that the US thinks China is its main rival. Qin also stated that US so-called competition means containing and suppressing China, while he warned there will be conflict and confrontation if the US does not change its path but also stated that China is committed to promoting healthy and stable development of China-US relations, according to Reuters.
Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu said he is not aware of President Tsai meeting with US House Speaker McCarthy but added that if China makes a move, the military’s role is to fight. Chiu added that they don’t expect it to happen, but will not allow repeated provocations from China.
US Senators Warner and Thune are to announce a bill on Tuesday that will comprehensively address the ongoing threat posed by technology from foreign adversaries such as TikTok. In relevant news, the German government plans to ban telecom operators from using certain components of Huawei and ZTE in 5G networks.
RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected, while the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and expects further tightening of monetary policy will be needed which was a slight tweak from its previous guidance that the Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed, while it also noted that monthly CPI suggests inflation seems to have peaked. Furthermore, the RBA said growth in the Australian economy has slowed and the labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little and that uncertainties mean that there is a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.

European bourses are contained, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, and reside in contained ranges ahead of Fed Chair Powell. Sectors are mostly in the green, though the breadth of performance is narrow given the above. Stateside, futures are also in close proximity to the unchanged mark though they do have a slight upward-bias pre-Powell as yields ease; NQ +0.3%.

Top European News

Barclays said UK February consumer spending rose 5.9% Y/Y which was hit by a reduction in non-essential spending and higher food prices, while the sales growth was also affected by comparison to the base as there was a spike in spending in February 2022 after COVID restrictions were lifted.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Inflation Expectations: 4.9% 12-months ahead (Dec 5.0%); Nominal Income: 1.3% over the next 12-months (Dec +1.0%); Nominal Spending: 3.8% over the next 12-months (Dec +4.2%)
ECB’s Stournaras says he is confident that credit rating agencies will upgrade Greece’s bonds within months. Elsewhere, Stournaras would not pre-commit to specific further rate increases amid a backdrop of headline inflation declining; saying, it could increase rather than limit market confusion. (FT)
ECB’s de Cos says core inflation is to remain elevated in the short term, and thereafter ease gradually.
BoE’s Mann says more needs to be done with rates. Weak GBP is significant for inflation; could be more to go in terms of how much is priced into GBP.
Riksbank’s Thedeen says wants to see a stronger SEK; there is not a strong argument that the SEK should be weak or weaker because of the housing market. Underlying inflation has not turned, and is still too high.
TotalEnergies’ (TTE FP) Gonfreville refinery (240k BPD) is completely blocked; Exxon’s (XOM) Port Jerome (270k BPD) and Fos Sur Mer (140k BPD) refineries are on strike, via the union. Subsequently, TotalEnergies says there is no shortage of fuel within its gas stations, reserves at a high level.

The DXY continues to inch higher, but has seemingly hit a ceiling at 104.50 before Monday’s 104.69 best, with peers mostly contained/slightly softer vs USD pre-Powell.
Though, AUD bucks-the-trend and is markedly softer after the RBA hiked by 25bp and tweaked its accompanying statement, which has been taken as a dovish-adjustment by markets; AUD/USD at the lower-end of 0.6669-0.6747 parameters.
GBP and JPY are little changed despite familiar hawkish remarks from BoE’s Mann and a further easing of UST yields respectively; Cable holding at 1.20, where the 100-DMA resides, while USD/JPY has pulled back from a brief breach of 136.00.
CAD is rangebound on the eve of the BoC while the SEK has shrugged off more familiar remarks from Riksbank’s Thedeen on inflation and the SEK.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9156 vs exp. 6.9159 (prev. 6.8951)

Fixed Income

Bunds have moved within a handful of ticks of Monday’s best while Gilts eclipsed their peak following the latest ECB Consumer survey.
However, the benchmarks have since faded slightly from 131.78 and 100.62 respective peaks following lacklustre UK and German issuance.
Stateside, USTs are firmer and at the top-end of 111.00-111.12 ranges with yields softer and the curve slightly flatter pre-Powell and 3yr supply.
Retail orders for the new March 2028 BTP Italia reached EUR 5bln since the start of the offer, according to bourse data.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are in close proximity to the unchanged mark in-fitting with the broader tentative risk tone, WTI & Brent front-month futures reside within sub-USD 1/bbl parameters.
US energy envoy Hochstein said Russian oil price caps are working well and that Russian oil continues to flow which is selling at a discount, according to Reuters.
China’s average daily crude oil imports in January-February were at the highest since May last year, according to Reuters calculations based on customs records.
MMG’s Las Bambas mine is set to resume copper transportation, according to a minister.
Ukraine has begun bilateral online discussions with partners on extending the Black Sea grain export deal but not with Russia, according to a source in the Ukraine government cited by Reuters.
Gas futures are similarly contained with focus on Bloomberg reports that the EU will be making a move as a buyer’s group on international markets in April.
Spot gold is incrementally softer as the USD retains a positive-bias; yellow metal holding just above the 21-DMA at USD 1842.6/oz while base metals are softer given broader priced action and APAC price action following China’s trade data.

Geopolitics

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China-Russia relations are not subjected to interference by third parties and the more turbulent the world is, the more China-Russia relations must advance. Qin stated that China did not create the crisis in Ukraine and has not provided weapons to either side of the conflict, while he added that conflict, sanctions and pressures won’t solve the crisis. Furthermore, he said dialogue should begin as soon as possible and what is needed now is calmness and rationality.
North Korea said US and South Korean military actions have gone too far and leader Kim’s sister said North Korea will see it as a declaration of war if the US takes military action against strategic weapon tests, according to KCNA.
North Korea says South Korea launched 30 rounds of artillery on Tuesday near its border, KCNA reports. Subsequently, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry says “The danger of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula turns from fantasy into reality because of Washington and Seoul”, via Al Jazeera.
Syrian state media reported Israeli aggression targeting Syria’s Aleppo International Airport and a Syrian military source said Israeli aggression put Aleppo International Airport out of service.
South Korea spy agency says North Korea could test a new ICBM in March or April, according to Newsis.
Russia Defense Minister Shoigu says seizure of Bahkmut will allow further offensives in Ukraine, Interfax reports. Reminder, western officials have pushed back on the strategic importance of Bahkmut in recent sessions.
Belarus President Lukashenko says Ukraine, by order of the US, seeks to drag Belarus into the war.

US Event Calendar

10:00: Jan. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. -0.5%, prior 0%
10:00: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
15:00: Jan. Consumer Credit, est. $25.4b, prior $11.6b

Central Banks

10:00: Powell Appears Before Senate Banking Panel

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets looked set to start the week off on the front foot yesterday before US equities gave up virtually all their gains from the highs just as Europe went home. The S&P 500 closed +0.07% after being +0.8%. Sovereign bonds put in a weaker performance, especially from the highs after a European morning rally. A dovish hike from the RBA has helped reverse the momentum a little overnight though. This all comes ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today and tomorrow, which kicks off an important seven days ahead that includes the US jobs report this Friday, as well as the CPI release in a week’s time.

Starting with central banks, yesterday saw a number of new milestones reached, including the most hawkish market pricing for ECB rate hikes to date, with +156bps of further tightening now expected by year-end. A major catalyst for this were comments from the ECB’s Holzmann, one of the biggest hawks on the Governing Council, who said he assumed “that core inflation will not weaken significantly in the first half of the year” and that in this case “I expect we’ll hike rates by half a percentage point four more times this year”. That would imply the ECB is still hiking by 50bps in July, and if realised would take the deposit rate all the way up to 4.5%, which is a much higher number than other ECB speakers have been floating.

Those comments led to significant losses for European sovereign bonds, with the 2yr German yield up another +10.1bps to a post-2008 high of 3.315%, and the 10yr yield rising +3.4bps to 2.749% (but +11bps from the session lows). The latter being just shy of its recent closing high from last week. Those moves also led the Euro itself to strengthen further, hitting a 2-week high against the dollar of $1.0681. And there was further Euro support from natural gas prices, which fell to a fresh 18-month low in Europe of €42.15/MWh, thus continuing their consistent downward trend over the last three months.

Not to be outdone, pricing on the Fed’s terminal rate reached a new closing cycle high of 5.476% in September, up +3.3bps yesterday. This shift was seen across the curve as the rate pricing for the December Fed meeting rose +3.8bps to 5.345%, which is just shy of the cycle highs reached last Wednesday.

Attention now turns to the Fed today with Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 London time. This is the regular semi-annual testimony after the Fed’s submits its Monetary Policy Report to Congress, but all eyes will be on whether Powell uses the opportunity to strike a more hawkish tone, particularly given the strong data and upward inflation revisions since the last FOMC meeting. The question of most interest will be whether he indicates a preference to stick to the 25bp pace going forward, or if 50bp moves are still on the table. Futures are currently pricing roughly a 1 in 4 chance of a 50bp move at the next meeting, so confirmation that’s being considered could lead to a sizeable market reaction. Ultimately though, since we’ve still got another jobs report and CPI print before the March decision, there’s still several other factors that’ll influence that decision.

Ahead of Powell’s testimony, there was a fresh bout of yield curve flattening. Most noticeably, the 2s10s Treasury curve (-2.6bps) closed at a new post-1981 low of -93.5bps. The 2s30s curve moved below -100bps for the first time since 1982, closing at -99.7bps (down -1.3bps).

Back to equities and whilst we’ve discussed how the S&P 500 (+0.07%) was fairly flat, there was a large amount of differentiation between industries. There was a strong rally among non-cyclicals like Tech Hardware (+1.5%) and Software (+0.6%) as well as defensives such as Food & Staples (+0.7%) and Utilities (+0.4%). Cyclicals such as Autos (-1.8%), Materials (-1.6%), and Consumer Durables (-1.1%) were among the biggest laggards on the index. Notably, small-caps massively under-performed with the Russell 2000 down -1.46% on the day. Back in Europe, the overall performance was similar as the STOXX 600 (-0.02%) posted a marginal decline. However, the picture was pretty divergent by country, with the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.17%) losing ground, whereas the German DAX (+0.48%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.34%) were in positive territory.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+1.20%) leading gains across the region while the Nikkei (+0.44%) and KOSPI (+0.40%) are also in the green. Meanwhile, Chinese equities are swinging about a bit with the CSI (-0.14%) surrendering early gains whilst the Shanghai Composite (+0.16%) is slightly higher as I check my screens. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.54%) is rallying after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates but argued that inflation had peaked.

The 25bps increase to 3.6% was a record 10th consecutive hike but the RBA seem to be slightly guiding away from a series of hikes in the “months ahead” to a more vague “further tightening”. Following the decision, the Australian dollar lost ground dropping -0.53% to 0.6694 against the dollar before settling at $0.6713 while yields on the 3yr government bonds fell -12.7bps to trade at 3.39% as we go to press.

Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a decent start with those tied to the S&P 500 (+0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.35%) printing mild gains ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony.

Early morning data showed that China’s exports in the first two months of 2023 dropped -6.8% from a year before, while analysts expected it to decrease by -9.4%. Meanwhile, imports also fell -10.2%, higher than the market expected drop of -5.5% on an annualized basis.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, US factory orders fell by -1.6% in January (vs. -1.8% expected). We also got an interesting release from the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure index. That showed that for the first time since the pandemic began, global supply chain pressures were now below their historic average, with the reading in February at its lowest since August 2019. Finally, Euro Area retail sales grew by +0.3% in January, which was a bit beneath the +0.6% expected, but went alongside a decent upward revision to the December contraction, which is now at -1.7% (vs. -2.7% previously).

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Relatively rangebound action pre-Powell with yields softer, USD bid & AUD lags – Newsquawk US Market Open

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 06:30 AM

European bourses & US futures are contained in relatively narrow ranges pre-Powell, following firmer but ultimately capped APAC action on China trade data
DXY continues to inch higher but has stalled at 104.50 before Monday’s 104.69 best; AUD lags post-RBA
EGBs/Gilts initially tested/breached Monday’s best, but have pulled back slightly following relatively lacklustre auctions
USTs are firmer and at the top-end of their range ahead of Fed speak and 3yr supply
Crude benchmarks are pivoting the unchanged mark given the above, focus also on numerous geopolitical updates
Looking ahead, highlights include US Manheim index, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, BoE’s Dhingra, SNB’s Jordan, Supply from the US

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are contained, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, and reside in contained ranges ahead of Fed Chair Powell.
Sectors are mostly in the green, though the breadth of performance is narrow given the above.
Stateside, futures are also in close proximity to the unchanged mark though they do have a slight upward-bias pre-Powell as yields ease; NQ +0.3%.
Click here for more detail.

FX

The DXY continues to inch higher, but has seemingly hit a ceiling at 104.50 before Monday’s 104.69 best, with peers mostly contained/slightly softer vs USD pre-Powell.
Though, AUD bucks-the-trend and is markedly softer after the RBA hiked by 25bp and tweaked its accompanying statement, which has been taken as a dovish-adjustment by markets; AUD/USD at the lower-end of 0.6669-0.6747 parameters.
GBP and JPY are little changed despite familiar hawkish remarks from BoE’s Mann and a further easing of UST yields respectively; Cable holding at 1.20, where the 100-DMA resides, while USD/JPY has pulled back from a brief breach of 136.00.
CAD is rangebound on the eve of the BoC while the SEK has shrugged off more familiar remarks from Riksbank’s Thedeen on inflation and the SEK.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9156 vs exp. 6.9159 (prev. 6.8951)
Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

Bunds have moved within a handful of ticks of Monday’s best while Gilts eclipsed their peak following the latest ECB Consumer survey.
However, the benchmarks have since faded slightly from 131.78 and 100.62 respective peaks following lacklustre UK and German issuance.
Stateside, USTs are firmer and at the top-end of 111.00-111.12 ranges with yields softer and the curve slightly flatter pre-Powell and 3yr supply.
Retail orders for the new March 2028 BTP Italia reached EUR 5bln since the start of the offer, according to bourse data.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are in close proximity to the unchanged mark in-fitting with the broader tentative risk tone, WTI & Brent front-month futures reside within sub-USD 1/bbl parameters.
US energy envoy Hochstein said Russian oil price caps are working well and that Russian oil continues to flow which is selling at a discount, according to Reuters.
China’s average daily crude oil imports in January-February were at the highest since May last year, according to Reuters calculations based on customs records.
MMG’s Las Bambas mine is set to resume copper transportation, according to a minister.
Ukraine has begun bilateral online discussions with partners on extending the Black Sea grain export deal but not with Russia, according to a source in the Ukraine government cited by Reuters.
Gas futures are similarly contained with focus on Bloomberg reports that the EU will be making a move as a buyer’s group on international markets in April.
Spot gold is incrementally softer as the USD retains a positive-bias; yellow metal holding just above the 21-DMA at USD 1842.6/oz while base metals are softer given broader priced action and APAC price action following China’s trade data.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Barclays said UK February consumer spending rose 5.9% Y/Y which was hit by a reduction in non-essential spending and higher food prices, while the sales growth was also affected by comparison to the base as there was a spike in spending in February 2022 after COVID restrictions were lifted.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Inflation Expectations: 4.9% 12-months ahead (Dec 5.0%); Nominal Income: 1.3% over the next 12-months (Dec +1.0%); Nominal Spending: 3.8% over the next 12-months (Dec +4.2%)
ECB’s Stournaras says he is confident that credit rating agencies will upgrade Greece’s bonds within months. Elsewhere, Stournaras would not pre-commit to specific further rate increases amid a backdrop of headline inflation declining; saying, it could increase rather than limit market confusion. (FT)
ECB’s de Cos says core inflation is to remain elevated in the short term, and thereafter ease gradually.
BoE’s Mann says more needs to be done with rates. Weak GBP is significant for inflation; could be more to go in terms of how much is priced into GBP.
Riksbank’s Thedeen says wants to see a stronger SEK; there is not a strong argument that the SEK should be weak or weaker because of the housing market. Underlying inflation has not turned, and is still too high.
TotalEnergies’ (TTE FP) Gonfreville refinery (240k BPD) is completely blocked; Exxon’s (XOM) Port Jerome (270k BPD) and Fos Sur Mer (140k BPD) refineries are on strike, via the union. Subsequently, TotalEnergies says there is no shortage of fuel within its gas stations, reserves at a high level.

DATA RECAP

UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Feb) 4.9% (Prev. 3.9%); Total Sales YY (Feb) 5.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
German Industrial Orders MM (Jan) 1.0% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev. 3.4%)
Swiss Unemployment Rate Adj. (Feb) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

The White House will propose raising taxes on Americans earning more than USD 400k and reducing what Medicare pays for prescription drugs “in an attempt to ensure that the health-care program for seniors is funded for the next two decades”, WaPo reports.
Subsequently, US President Biden in the New York Times: “My Plan to Extend Medicare for Another Generation”. Click here for more detail.

GEOPOLITICS

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China-Russia relations are not subjected to interference by third parties and the more turbulent the world is, the more China-Russia relations must advance. Qin stated that China did not create the crisis in Ukraine and has not provided weapons to either side of the conflict, while he added that conflict, sanctions and pressures won’t solve the crisis. Furthermore, he said dialogue should begin as soon as possible and what is needed now is calmness and rationality.
North Korea said US and South Korean military actions have gone too far and leader Kim’s sister said North Korea will see it as a declaration of war if the US takes military action against strategic weapon tests, according to KCNA.
North Korea says South Korea launched 30 rounds of artillery on Tuesday near its border, KCNA reports. Subsequently, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry says “The danger of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula turns from fantasy into reality because of Washington and Seoul”, via Al Jazeera.
Syrian state media reported Israeli aggression targeting Syria’s Aleppo International Airport and a Syrian military source said Israeli aggression put Aleppo International Airport out of service.
South Korea spy agency says North Korea could test a new ICBM in March or April, according to Newsis.
Russia Defense Minister Shoigu says seizure of Bahkmut will allow further offensives in Ukraine, Interfax reports. Reminder, western officials have pushed back on the strategic importance of Bahkmut in recent sessions.
Belarus President Lukashenko says Ukraine, by order of the US, seeks to drag Belarus into the war.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is slightly softer on the session, but remains steady overall within very narrow ranges given the broader risk tone.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mostly higher although gains were capped as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data and with cautiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress.
ASX 200 pared losses after the RBA rate decision where it hiked rates as expected but provided a slightly less hawkish tone in which it noted the Board expects further tightening of monetary policy will be needed which was a subtle tweak from its prior guidance that the Board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed, while it also noted that monthly CPI suggests inflation seems to have peaked.
Nikkei 225 shrugged off the early weakness to trade marginally higher in the aftermath of the softer-than-expected labour earnings data including the largest decline in real wages since May 2014 which reduces the likelihood of a sooner exit from the BoJ’s ultra-easy policy.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy amid mixed Chinese trade data which showed a continued contraction in both dollar-denominated exports and imports, while it was also reported that the White House is considering pushing Congress on dealing with TikTok and that US Senators will announce a bill to comprehensively address the ongoing threat posed by technology from foreign adversaries.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China’s State Councillor says they are to establish a national financial regulatory administration, to advance the reform of PBoC branches; to downsize staff of central-level state institutions by 5%. Deepen reform of local financial regulatory system. To abolish the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, regulator to become an agency directly under state council.
China’s Housing Minister says full of confidence in the stabilisation and rebound in China’s property market; says confidence among market players is recovering. The resumption rate of many housing project has been greatly improved.
Chinese President Xi condemned US-led suppression of China, according to state media cited by AFP.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said US perception of China has seriously deviated and that the US thinks China is its main rival. Qin also stated that US so-called competition means containing and suppressing China, while he warned there will be conflict and confrontation if the US does not change its path but also stated that China is committed to promoting healthy and stable development of China-US relations, according to Reuters.
Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu said he is not aware of President Tsai meeting with US House Speaker McCarthy but added that if China makes a move, the military’s role is to fight. Chiu added that they don’t expect it to happen, but will not allow repeated provocations from China.
US Senators Warner and Thune are to announce a bill on Tuesday that will comprehensively address the ongoing threat posed by technology from foreign adversaries such as TikTok. In relevant news, the German government plans to ban telecom operators from using certain components of Huawei and ZTE in 5G networks.
RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected, while the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and expects further tightening of monetary policy will be needed which was a slight tweak from its previous guidance that the Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed, while it also noted that monthly CPI suggests inflation seems to have peaked. Furthermore, the RBA said growth in the Australian economy has slowed and the labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little and that uncertainties mean that there is a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.

DATA RECAP

Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Feb) 116.88B vs. Exp. 81.8B (Prev. 78.0B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Feb) -6.8% vs. Exp. -9.4% (Prev. -9.9%); Imports YY (USD)(Feb) -10.2% vs. Exp. -5.5% (Prev. -7.5%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Feb) 810.3B (Prev. 550.1B)
Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Feb) 0.9% (Prev. -0.5%); Imports YY (CNY)(Feb) -2.9% (Prev. 2.2%)
Japanese Labour Cash Earnings YY (Jan) 0.8% vs Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 4.8%, Rev. 4.1%)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Jan) 11.7B vs. Exp. 12.5B (Prev. 12.2B)
Australian Exports (Jan) 1% (Prev. -1%); Imports (Jan) 5% (Prev. 1%)

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/USA

Chinese cranes at major USA ports have sensors and they make act for intelligence gathering

(zerohedge)

Pentagon Sees Chinese ‘Spy Cranes’ At US Ports As “Trojan Horse”

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 07:20 PM

US officials have voiced concerns that Chinese-manufactured cranes operating at major US ports and various military bases may serve as a “Trojan horse” for Beijing’s intelligence-gathering program, The Wall Street Journal reported.

According to national security and Pentagon officials, the ship-to-shore cranes, produced by China’s ZPMC, are equipped with advanced sensors capable of detecting and monitoring shipping containers, raising alarms that Beijing could gather intelligence about the materials being transported to or from the US ports or military bases.

“Cranes can be the new Huawei,” Bill Evanina, a former top US counterintelligence official, told WSJ. US officials have banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies from US communication networks on fears of spying. And he said the extent of the spying goes beyond Huawei into other forms, such as cranes.

“It’s the perfect combination of legitimate business that can also masquerade as clandestine intelligence collection,” Evanina said.

A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in Washington said the new panic around cranes is “paranoia-driven” and an attempt to obstruct trade and economic cooperation with China. The person added:

“Playing the ‘China card’ and floating the ‘China threat’ theory is irresponsible and will harm the interests of the US itself.”

The concerns about the alleged ‘spy’ cranes come after a recent dispute between the US and China regarding high-altitude balloons. In response to a recent spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina, the Biden administration deployed a stealth fighter that successfully shot down the balloon with a Sidewinder missile.

END

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

end

5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA/

Robert H to us:

US is Losing Another War – Ukraine | Armstrong Economics

Good writing, Armstrong lays in detail, what this conflict in Ukraine is really about . A Rabid hate for Russia by Neocons led by “Noodles Nuland” who with her infamous statement “Fuck the EU” laid bare her feelings about sacrificing Europe for the Neocon agenda of war. Why do Europeans not see that they do not matter to Neocons like Nuland? Are Poles or Romanians blind to their own apparent potential sacrificial destruction? Not withstanding that in so doing the fragile nature of Western economies have been put at risk and potentially into a long term decline. No doubt, Nuland’s sentiments about the EU characterize her feelings about everyone else. This is not uncommon with such mentality.
A time to give these Nut-bars the heave ho, before more needless damage is done to everyone’s lives. As we can be sure that higher interest rates are a reflection of the fact America has already spent more money on the Ukraine Neocon conflict than was spent in Afghanistan. No nation can afford such wasteful debt spending with nothing to show.
This will turn out to be a failure like all the other conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq which produced no material benefit to America or the rest of the world.
One can only mourn how far America has fallen led by a senile character of questionable repute while Congress sleeps to allow such blatant abuse of executive privilege not within the scope of conduct of a President. The only party who can declare war is Congress not the President. So if Samantha Powers, another Neocon says that America is at war with Russia using Ukraine as a proxy, then it reasons to conclude that this crowd has committed treason against America. However who is going to hold them to account?
America desperately needs to rebuild itself top regain a position in a multipolar world. Otherwise it will be lost to the juggernaut called China who is fighting a no holds barred fight to be the top Dog, instead of America. This is what is at stake and not some naive foolish feud real or imagined driven by the blindness of hate without reason.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/neocons/us-is-losing-another-war-ukraine/

end

Ukraine is going to lose – Asia Times

There was never a question of who would win. Only sheer arrogance and stupidity of blind hate filled Neocons who have never won any war led by a senile character of questionable repute wanting and lacking has led to this point.
Ukraine is finished as a nation and perhaps it is a good thing because the Russians will not tolerate the corruption there. Its cleanup is long overdue and will be a blessing for those people who remain living there. And no doubt, all the greedy hands eagerly buying Porsche’s and Mercedes in Kiev will creep westward into Europe and elsewhere to spend their ill gotten gains with their poisonous traits.
Whether Neocons get or not, their contoured and Manic path, should it continue unabated, or it escalates; it puts America’s own hegemony and existence at risk. NATO and even the Fed have now been put on the expendable list by this crowd. Actually NATO is dead, only acknowledgement remains to be made and its’ burial. And no doubt, enlightened nations and certain leaders are planning an exit strategy. And likewise, the EU is headed for the waste bin as a failed exercise. What remains to be seen is how painful the breakup will be. Even foolish attempts to limit farming and like for ill conceived notions of globalist control are failing in real time because they cannot control the timing of a looming train of pain cast adrift by the Neocon agenda that trumped theirs. Klaus thought he had control only to learn that the Neocons cared not as he was a useful tool and nothing more.
These geopolitical tremors and faults all lie with the demented Neocons of DC who have destroyed 70 + years of American goodwill and have wasted countless billions between the destruction of Ukraine and Afghanistan, Iraq etc. to take away American dreams and livelihoods for naught. What remains to be seen is what other nations will cast themselves on the fire burning to be destroyed as a cover.
A new BRIC”s currency for trade settlement is coming soon and it will be a direct broadside into dollar hegemony. And perhaps, it is time that the Federal Reserve Dollar ended its sunshine day to be replaced by a new American currency to compete within a new geopolitical order that cometh soon. Because with will come new capital realisms as banking and credit systems will be turned upside down in a set of rules which remain out of sight and are most undefined to be characterized by unfolding events.

Ukraine is going to lose

6.GLOBAL ISSUES/COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Omission Of Children’s COVID-19 Vaccine Deaths In Australia Raises Concerns

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Victoria Kelly-Clark via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An Australian senator has said he is concerned about the country’s therapeutic authorities’ delayed approach to updating Australia’s Database of Adverse Event Notifications (DAEN) after it was revealed the government body had neglected to include a number of deaths attributed to the vaccine, including that of two children aged 7 and 9.

This comes after a Freedom of Information request by an Australian doctor revealed the Australian pharmaceutical and drug administrator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), had not updated its DAEN with the deaths.

Australian Liberal Party senator, Gerard Rennick, told The Epoch Times that he was deeply concerned about the TGA’s failure to update DAEN and is calling for there to be some independent oversight on the TGA, given the conflict of interest.

“A third independent medical party should examine the evidence as the TGA has a conflict of interest because they approved the vaccines and would therefore be held responsible for the deaths of these children due to poor regulatory oversight,” Rennick said.

The senator noted that he was highly concerned that the TGA had soft-pedalled the risks involved with the COVID-19 vaccines, especially those around myocarditis and cardiac arrests.

“They are definitely downplaying the risks. They do not have enough information to rule it out given the known link between the vaccines and myocarditis and myocarditis and cardiac arrests,” Rennick said.

As of March 6, the DAEN states that since the beginning of the vaccination rollout in Australia, 137,576 adverse events have been reported relating to the range of COVID-19 vaccines. Of those, 134,224 are believed to be directly related to the vaccines, while 980 are vaccine-related deaths.

TGA Independent Review Board

The TGA does have a pre-existing independent review vehicle for vaccines called the Vaccine Safety Investigation Group (VSIG).

The group is meant to provide independent specialist immunisation (and other relevant) expertise to assist the TGA in investigating and managing Adverse Event Following Immunisation (AEFI) that require the services of national-level experts.

The group is described as a time-limited working group that can be convened when a single serious AEFI that is unexpected and without an obvious non-vaccine cause occurs. The TGA notes that an AEFI is considered unexpected when it is not listed in the product information document for the vaccine or is listed, but causality has not been established.

Djokovic Withdraws From Indian Wells; Still Banned From Entering Country Due To Vaxx Status

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 02:26 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

The world’s number one tennis player Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from Indian Wells and the Miami Open because he is still banned from entering the country owing to his vaccination status.

While the news is being reported as a “visa dispute,” the reason Djokovic cannot complete is because he refuses to take the COVID vaccine.

Djokovic has appealed for a special dispensation to play in the tournaments, given that the restrictions are slated to end in April anyway.

Djokovic requested a vaccine waiver, however it was rejected by the Homeland Security Department in a blatant move to once make an example out of the premier athlete.

Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio of Florida expressed support for the 22 time grand slam victor, and called on Congress to throw out Joe Biden’s “bogus vaccine mandate.”

“It has come to our attention that your administration is in receipt of a request to waive the current vaccine mandate for international travelers entering the United States from top-ranked men’s tennis player Novak Djokovic,” the Senators wrote in a letter.

“We write to urge you to grant the requested waiver, which is necessary to allow Mr. Djokovic to compete in the Miami Open professional tennis tournament held in our home state of Florida beginning March 19, 2023,” the pair added.

The letter continues, “In September 2022, you plainly declared to a national audience on 60 Minutes that ‘the [COVID-19] pandemic is over,’ and, earlier this year, Dr. Anthony Fauci published a professional article acknowledging the limited efficacy of vaccines in protecting against respiratory pathogens, like the novel coronavirus.”

“In light of these changing circumstances, and admissions by you and members of your own administration, the current restrictive vaccine mandate which you have maintained for international travelers entering the United States seems outdated and worthy of rescission,” the Senators urge.

They add, “Mr. Djokovic is a world-class athlete in peak physical condition who is not at high-risk of severe complications from COVID-19. It seems both illogical and misaligned with the opinions of your own administration to not grant him the waiver he requests so that he may travel to the U.S. to compete in a professional event.”

How long are they going to carry on with this?

Video: CNN’s Lemon Says Unvaccinated “Idiots” Like Novak Djokovic Shouldn’t Be Part Of “Polite Society”

Video: Australian Tennis Officials Order Group To Hand Over Novak Djokovic Signs In Arena Or Leave

Video: Reporter Asks White House “How Come Migrants Are Allowed To Come In Unvaccinated, But World-class Tennis Players Are Not?”

* * *
END

Robert H to us:

Dr. Sherri Tenpenny and CJ Grace discuss link between bras and breast cancer – Brighteon.TV – NaturalNews.com

There is a lot of truth here. Many years ago i did work on Playtex cross your heart bras.
When rolled out in the UK they were a hit; when introduced in France they failed. This was at the time due to the reality that French women did not shave their armpits and bras disintegrated. However, there was much to be learnt from from bras and how they affected breasts, just like girdles have an impact.
I am surprised it has taken so long for this to come out.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-03-06-dr-tenpenny-cj-grace-bras-breast-cancer.html

Cheers
Robert

end

Dr Paul Alexander

Did the COVID mRNA technology gene injection cause 20-Year-Old Model Claire Bridges to lose both her legs? The media blames this on the COVID virus but she was vaccinated; Is it the COVID injection?

I lean towards the COVID gene injection vaccine! You are being lied to, she is being lied to! This may well be vaccine-induced myocarditis with then 3 cardiac arrests & blood clots, cost her her legs

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 6

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

What about 17- year old Everest Romney?

SOURCE:

https://www.newsweek.com/fight-save-20-year-old-models-life-covid-doctors-will-amputate-legs-1674248

Claire Bridges, 20, had both her legs amputated after suffering complications from COVID-19. The Florida-based model was released from hospital last Thursday following a two-month stay.

17 year old Everest Romney, hospitalized with brain blood clots:

‘DRAPER, Utah (ABC4) – The day after his COVID-19 vaccine shot, 17-year-old Everest Romney felt his neck swelling. In the coming days, he suffered from severe headaches.

His mother, who tells ABC4 the pediatrician initially dismissed the symptoms as a pulled neck muscle, says she was convinced it was something else.

“He could not move his neck without the assistance of his hands,” says mother Cherie Romney…

Romney says she knew she needed to keep advocating to doctors that something wasn’t right.

Finally, after more than a week of the symptoms, the Corner Canyon High School basketball player and his family had answers: two blood clots inside his brain, and one on the outside.’

Dr. William Makis, MD shared this very troubling photo (20 year old, 48 hours after 2nd Moderna shot).

end

Stew Peters on FIRE! Zelenskyy Wants U.S. Troops SLAUGHTERED In Ukraine: TREASONOUS Politicians Waste Tax Dollars On Rothschild Backed BLOODY WAR; Stew is like a brother to me, SAGE!

Yes, Ukraine is a globalist takedown cabal!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

SOURCE:

Wang et al. in 2018 wrote about the harms & adverse effects of nano-particles (NPs) on human reproductive system, so why did CDC, FDA, Fauci, Walensky, Francis Collins, Njoo, Tam & medical doctors

disregard this? NP accumulation damages organs (testis, epididymis, ovary & uterus) by destroying Sertoli cells, Leydig cells & germ cells, causing reproductive organ dysfunction

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

‘NP accumulation damages organs (testis, epididymis, ovary, and uterus) by destroying Sertoli cells, Leydig cells, and germ cells, causing reproductive organ dysfunction that adversely affects sperm quality, quantity, morphology, and motility or reduces the number of mature oocytes (eggs) and disrupts primary and secondary follicular development. In addition, NPs can disrupt the levels of secreted hormones, causing changes in sexual behavior.’

So why the hell did they allow mRNA-DNA technology gene injections to be given to pregnant women, women of child-bearing age; injected them with a biologically active agent with no safety testing? Criminals IMO!

end

US Congress Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, March 5, 2023 “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”; NIH & Fauci & Francis Collins knew that it was likely originated from lab but pushed lie

about proximal origin, wet market type origin to deny that it did in fact emerge from a lab (s); notice I did not say which lab for it is becoming clear likely it is a US lab with strong US leadership

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

SOURCE:

Click to access 2023.03.05-SSCP-Memo-Re.-New-Evidence.Proximal-Origin.pdf

end

US Congress Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, March 5, 2023 “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”; NIH & Fauci & Francis Collins knew that it was likely originated from lab but pushed lie

about proximal origin, wet market type origin to deny that it did in fact emerge from a lab (s); notice I did not say which lab for it is becoming clear likely it is a US lab with strong US leadership

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

SOURCE:

Click to access 2023.03.05-SSCP-Memo-Re.-New-Evidence.Proximal-Origin.pdf

end

The J6 Comm was a fraud. All about it. & everything they pushed was a fraud, a complete lie; Trump was right again, a fraud, so let the prisoners free; Hawley was smeared wrongfully; good work Tucker

“The surveillance footage we reviewed shows that famous clip was a sham, edited deceptively by the January 6th Committee. The clip was propaganda, not evidence. Tape shows Hawley never ran away

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

The Vigilant Fox @VigilantFox

The Josh Hawley Coward Tape Proves to Be a Lie After Further Review from the @TuckerCarlson Team “The surveillance footage we reviewed shows that famous clip was a sham, edited deceptively by the January 6th Committee. The clip was propaganda, not evidence. The actual videotape… https://t.co/vbrGyz9hi3

2:13 AM ∙ Mar 7, 202311,708Likes4,142Retweets

end

Dr Panda

VACCINE IMPACT//

JPMorgan Chase CEO Fights Deposition in Lawsuit Charging Chase Bank Being the Cash Conduit for Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Crimes

March 6, 2023 6:16 pm

In the Attorney General’s office of the U.S. Virgin Islands’ lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., which is being accused of knowingly funding Jeffrey Epstein’s pedophile sex operation, CEO Jamie Dimon is being deposed to testify under oath in the case, although his lawyers are trying to prevent him from testifying. Investigative journalist Whitney Webb has recently published a 2-volume book covering the work of Jeffrey Epstein, and she identifies the main businessmen who financed Epstein’s work: Billionaire Leslie Wexner who owns retail giants like Bath & Body Works and Victoria’s Secret, Billionaire Bill Gates, and Billionaire Donald Trump. Jamie Dimon is the CEO of Chase Bank which is allegedly where Epstein held his accounts.

Creativity and the Human Difference – Why AI Can Never Replace Humans

March 6, 2023 6:41 pm

From the late Stephen Hawking to Elon Musk, some of the smartest people on Earth have issued warnings about the looming danger posed by artificial intelligence. Not only is AI an amazing technology, they say, with the potential for uses both good and bad, but it threatens to replace and destroy humanity. The media love this particular concept and continually seek to scare us with it. Why? The episode calls out the idea for what it is: applied materialism. Materialism is the denial of a spiritual reality. It animates Darwinian thinking, and it drives the panic about AI. After all, if humans are no more than “meat machines,” then a superior machine, equipped with AI, could well choose to do away with us. However, as four notable scholars explain here, AI runs on algorithms, which are essentially a recipe. AI does only what it’s programmed to do. Humans transcend algorithms. We do things that computers will never be able to accomplish.

VACCINE INJURY//

SLAY NEWS

end

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

The History Of The World Part II

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 10:06 AM

By Michael Every, chief strategist at Rabobank

ANCIENT ROME – OUTSIDE THE ‘VNEMPLOYMENT INSVRANCE’ OFFICE

CLERK: Occupation?

COMICVS: Stand-up philosopher.

CLERK: What?

COMICVS: Stand-up philosopher. I coalesce the vapours of human experience into a viable and meaningful comprehension.

CLERK: Oh, a *BS* artist!

COMICVS: *Grumble*…

CLERK: Did you BS last week?

COMICVS: No.

CLERK: Did you *try* to BS last week?

COMICVS: Yes!

History is on my mind today. 96-year young Mel Brooks just released ‘The History of the World Part II’ to follow-up on 1981’s ‘The History of the World Part I’. The first wasn’t in the same league as his earlier films but still has the meme “It’s good to be the king!” (And, for Marjorie Taylor-Greene, “SEE – JEWS – IN – SPACE!”) It’s wonderful to still have Mel around regardless of what this new offering brings which, like the original, is apparently hit and miss: I liked the trailer joke where an early Christian threatens to cancel his subscription to Net-fish. We need people who remember the past, and who dare to laugh at it: we need less coalescing of the vapours of human experience. For example, the eight-part ‘Part II’ includes Stalin, played by Jack Black, as Reuters notes: ‘70 years after death, his polarizing legacy looms large’. That’s a line one would once only have imagined in a Brooks’ film, as with “Hitler, there was a painter! He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon … two coats!”

It reflects how little we learn from, or laugh at, history that there are still debates about both the economic backdrop and what the Fed will do next, as we watch the paint dry ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testifying to Congress, which the WSJ’s Timiraos suggests will be hawkish as economic data show the feared recession is ‘always six months away’. Indeed, even used car prices are soaring again.

It’s obvious that this is not the 1970s, both in that Mel Brooks is not making truly classic comedies, and that labor is in a far weaker position than capital, which is deflationary. However, it should be just as obvious that labor is earning better than it has for decades, as is Mel, and as we recently argued for the UK and Eurozone, alongside a similar US view that had already seen our Fed watcher Philip Marey flag risks of a 6% peak in Fed Funds, something which markets have now started to come round to. It’s ‘High Anxiety’ for those thinking yields will fall.

Moreover, few in markets, but some in central banks(?), are starting to grasp that the strength of capital can be inflationary too. One anecdote is higher mortgage rates being passed on by housing investors to renters: pay up or sleep in the streets. We called that ‘economic rent’ before it was rolled into capital when political-economy became more mathematical (and more dishonest) economics. Yes, that is eventually deflationary too –or feudal– but not for a long time if people borrow to keep a roof over their heads, which of course they will.

@IsabellaMWeber shows in more depth that high corporate concentration is triggering higher prices. US profit margins have reached levels not seen since post-WWII, when inflation last coincided with windfall profits, and firms which previously kept prices stable have now hiked them. Weber conceptualizes this as a Lerner-type sellers’ inflation where even giant firms are price takers on commodity prices, but four principles of price-hike decisions then emerge:

Firms tend to not lower prices to prevent price wars and raise prices to protect profit margins, if they expect other firms to do the same.
Sector-wide shocks can create tacit agreements between firms to hike prices, since all firms protect their profit margins and know that the other firms pursue the same goal.
Supply bottlenecks can grant temporary monopoly power which allows firms to hike prices to not only protect but increase profit margins.
Firms navigate demand as a ‘portfolio of risks’ and prices as a social relation with retail partners and customers. Emergencies can create a pretext to legitimize price hikes.

In short, Covid, then war, triggered upstream inflation shocks, and some demand shocks; as these flowed through supply chains, firms raised prices to protect or amplify their margins; then workers fought to retain their spending power through higher wage growth. “It’s good the be the king.”

The implications for monetary policy are profound. Higher rates hurt workers already suffering from high inflation, and they can’t help firms suffering higher input costs. Indeed, if firms are able to pass higher input costs on, then higher debt servicing costs can be passed on too! On the other hand, lower rates are no solution if they mean higher commodity prices, then passed on, and higher asset prices, which are also inflationary (i.e., everyone quits work to flip condos or trade NFTs again). That’s something even the San Francisco Fed now realises. (“We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably.” Slow hand-clap!)

In other words, the economy is in a deeper structural mess than most realise. If (i) supply shocks are structural, and (ii) firms collectively raise prices, and (iii) even uncollective workers raise wage demands, then inflationary psychology will persist, at least until it is beaten out of two sectors, not one.

We just discussed (ii); part (iii) is being written; but part (i) is clear – the ‘return of history’ means ongoing supply shocks. Indeed, Singapore’s top diplomat just stressed the post-WW2 peace dividend which fuelled global economic growth is over, and “The rules-based world order, the focus on economic integration, liberal economics, free trade, all that was a formula for peace and prosperity and now the faith in those pillars has been shaken. It’s a flight to safety in a way.”

Or flight or fight, the latter inflationary. On which: Der Spiegel says Germany’s Rheinmetall is in talks about building a tank plant in Ukraine; Germany says there will be a future defence guarantee for Ukraine; the White House triggered the Defence Production Act to force US firms to build hypersonic missiles; House Speaker McCarthy will meet Taiwan’s president in California, not Taipei, for fear of China’s wrath; the Wall Street Journal argues ‘The US is not yet ready for the era of ‘Great Power Conflict’’, and needs to do vastly more on production; and China’s latest 7.2% increase in defence spending was matched by new centralised security agencies overseeing R&D, and promises of “forceful measures” to ensure it keeps moving up the value chain. Relatedly, if the White House is close to capital controls on Chinese tech due to national security concerns, yet Beijing is involved in all key value chains, how long until *all* US FDI into China is flagged as dangerous? The US is reportedly now focusing on biotech too, making that point.

Meanwhile, billionaire China investor Mark Mobius complains he can’t get his money out. How much history did he read before putting it in?

Even ‘vanilla’ supply-chain issues linger despite the drop in the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). A great way for analysts to show they don’t understand complex logistical issues is for them to refer to the GSCPI as ‘proof’ that supply chains are ‘healing’. Try explaining that to those in the industry seeing the global tanker fleet shrink as they opt to ‘go dark’ and trade Russian energy. Or as the “Pentagon sees giant Chinese cargo cranes as possible spying tools.” This doesn’t mean ocean carrier rates are not falling – they are. However, ‘Shippers want stability and service, not rock-bottom freight rates’. Indeed, a procurement executive is quoted saying he had spot cargo moving at “below $1,000 per box”, and had been offered even lower rates, but doesn’t feel comfortable about it because, “At some stage, the rate is going to shoot right back up, there’s just no stability and we can’t budget.” That backdrop is not one where goods –or capital– flow, and inflation stays low, like before; that implies firms will keep acting to collectively raise prices; then workers will act up to try to keep up.

If US durable goods inflation drifts up to where it sat in an earlier phase of globalisation, it would average 4% y-o-y, not 2%. In which case, services inflation needs to come down much more, meaning far higher rates and far lower asset prices, or the inflation target will be repeatedly missed, or it may even have to be raised. Historic volatility lies ahead of us whichever way. (Indeed, despite 2023 market calls for a weaker US dollar, Bloomberg yesterday reported ‘World’s riskiest markets stumble into crisis with dollars scarce’, and Reuters noted ‘Chinese companies hang on to dollars, hedge to prepare for volatile yuan’.)

Of course, raising rates now more would be crazy given US drivers are fighting over expensive used cars and 15% of those who financed a new vehicle towards end-2022 are reportedly paying $1,000+ a month to do so. However, pausing rate hikes as a precursor to cutting rates again would be even stupider – indeed, the ECB’s Holzmann yesterday spoke of four more half-point hikes ahead(!)

Which is why, as I have repeatedly flagged, both logic and the history of the pre-1981 world show the only solution may be ‘rate hikes and QE’, i.e., some form of bifurcated monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy rather than a one-size all Fed easing or tightening. Some others are arguing for similar policy. If the San Fran Fed have woken up to the fact that lower rates don’t do any good, and higher rates may not either, than surely we can’t be too far away from seeing a new script for the first time in decades? Laugh at the idea if you want, but those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Powell will consider his own future position in it when he testifies today. Perhaps it isn’t always good to be the king.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0661 DOWN .0024

USA/ YEN 136.15 UP 0.149/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.1993 DOWN 0.0032

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3641 UP .0025 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 36.93 PTS OR 1.11%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 68.71 PTS OR 0.33%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .49% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 68.71 PTS OR 0.33%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.93 PTS OR 1.11%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.49%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 71.38 PTS OR 0.25%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1839.50

silver:$20.89

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 104.77 UP 15 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.565% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.500% UP 0 AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.719%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.524 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.684 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0578 DOWN 0.01077 or 107 basis points//

USA/Japan: 136.89 UP 0.898 OR YEN DOWN 90 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1857 DOWN.01672 OR 167 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .01204 OR 120 BASIS pts to 1.3737

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.9625)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9800

TURKISH LIRA: 18.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.5000…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3,960% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.871 DOWN 4 in basis points

USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.9580 UP 6 basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.34 UP 1.01 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 10.31 PTS OR 0.13%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 94.05 POINTS OR 0.62 %

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 33.94PTS OR 0.46%

Spain IBEX DOWN 99.90 POINTS OR 1.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 187.72PTS OR 0.67/%

WTI Oil price 78.82 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.09 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 76.03/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 58/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6890

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8515 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0555 DOWN 0.01308 OR 131 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1833 DOWN .0192 or 192 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.873% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137.12 UP .1.125////YEN DOWN 113 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3744 UP .01275 (CDN dollar, DOWN 128 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 77.39

Brent OIL: 83.17

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.970%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 3.873%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 12 PTS AT 5.0148%

USA dollar index: 105.55 UP 1.22 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.93

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.03 DOWN 0 AND 58/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 574.98 PTS OR 1.72%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 150.31 PTS OR 1.22%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.58 UP .97 PTS (0.65)%

GLD: $168.62 DOWN 3.00 OR 1.75%

SLV/ $18.45 DOWN 0,87 OR 4.50%

end)

1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

‘Hawkish’ Powell Pummels Stocks, Oil, & Gold; Yield-Curve Collapses As Terminal-Rate Soars

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 04:00 PM

A more hawkish than expected Jay Powell sparked chaos across markets that had desperately hoped for some dovish bones. Although Powell really didn’t say anything new at all, the reaction was visceral as hopes for a pause any time soon were destroyed with the market’s expectation for The Fed’s terminal rate soaring up to 5.65% (up a stunning 300bps from July 2022 expectations)… For context, the market is pricing an additional 105bps of tightening in Fed Funds before this is over…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman now expects that the median dot will rise by 50bp at the March meeting to show a peak rate of 5.5-5.75% in 2023; and has raised their own forecast of the peak rate by 25bp to 5.5-5.75% as well.

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the market has now priced in 75bps of hikes by May…

Source: Bloomberg

With March odds now above 60% of a 50bps hike…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks tanked on Powell’s prepared remarks, extended losses, but as soon as he stopped talking at the hearing, stocks bounced higher but that didn’t hold. The Dow was the biggest loser, followed by the S&P 500. Small Caps very modestly outperformed Nasdaq but everything was red…

Dow broke below its 100DMA…

S&P tested down to its 50DMA…

The machines battled hard to get the S&P back above its 50DMA for the close… but failed…

0DTE Call-buying surged right after the initial knee-jerk lower reaction to Powell’s hawkish prepared remarks. Stocks drifted down to their 50DMA and then some 0DTE call-buying (and put-selling) stepped in.

HIRO Indicator | SpotGamma™

Treasuries were mixed on the day with the long-end outperforming (and lower in yield) as the short-end blasted higher (2Y +13bps, 30Y -2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yield hit 4.00% and reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yield surged all day, topping 5.00% for the first time since June 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

2s10s broke below -100bps for the first time since Sept 1981 (-103bps today)…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, the 2s10s curve was over +150 two years ago (March 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2s30s curve extended its collapse too, down to -113bps (a record inversion)…

Source: Bloomberg

Powell’s strong anti-inflation stance did have some ‘positive’ effects, reducing the market’s short-term (1Y) inflation expectations (having hit the cycle highs yesterday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond market volatility has soared in recent days while equity market volatility has fallen… until today…

Source: Bloomberg

DXY Dollar Index rallied hard, breaking above its 100DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

China’s offshore yuan tumbled back above 6.99/USD to its weakest level of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was battered back down below $22,000… bounced… then was told to stay down one more time…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices crashed almost 4% with WTI back to a $77 handle – its biggest daily drop in two months…

Gold was clubbed like a baby seal today, suffering some issues overnight on Perth Mint headlines, a stronger dollar, and then Powell’s hawkishness…

Finally, to put the last month in context, the market’s expectations for The Fed’s terminal rate has shifted from June 2023 at 4.895% to Oct 2023 at 5.63%. Additionally, expectations for rates at 2023 year-end are up over 105bps to 5.535%…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is still expecting a Fed pivot however, but not until 2024… and very gently – quite a shift from the pivot and puke expectation just a month ago – before a big payrolls print.

i b)EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Powell’s ‘Hawkish’ Remarks Spark Cross-Market Chaos, Rate-Hike Odds Soar

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 10:18 AM

In his prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee this morning, Fed Chair Powell shifted back toward Jackson Hole-ish stance with two comments of specific note:

A shift in his ‘disinflation’ perspective…

…inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year but remains well above the FOMC’s longer-run objective of 2 percent… That said, there is little sign of disinflation thus far in the category of core services excluding housing, which accounts for more than half of core consumer expenditures.

And a hawkish warning…

…. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes… The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.

Ironically, none of this is new, but the market did not like being slapped out of its euoptian dream-state back to that ‘data dependent’ reality-check…

Terminal rate expectations exploded higher to 5.60%…

With the odds of 50bps rate-hikes in March and May spiking higher (50% and 36% respectively)…

Stocks immediately tanked…

Treasury yields shot higher, led by the short-end…

The 10Y Yield spiked up to 4.00% and stalled…

The dollar soared…

Gold puked more…

Crypto was hammered with Bitcoin back below $22,000…

So now we wait for a reversal on something Powell says? Or will a big NFP miss ‘fix’ all this?

end

II) USA DATA

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Important: the death of the Eurodollar market and the huge strength gained through SOFR trading

(Tom Luongo)

Luongo: The War For The Dollar Is Already Over, Part I

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

And the Fed has won. In the words of Ambassador Kosh from the classic television series Babylon 5, “The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.”

For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?”

When I asked that question it was just days after musing to my Patrons on the eve of the June 16th, 2021 FOMC meeting that the Fed would have to step in and defend the US dollar. The dollar’s weakness during the Trump presidency couldn’t last forever. Even then I didn’t have a good answer as to how they would do it.

I just knew, intuitively, that they had to.

Back then there was no indication that the Fed was ready to begin raising rates. But by raising the Reverse Repo payout rate 0.05% above the Fed Funds Rate the Fed started the avalanche of US dollar strength that has persisted through to today.

And the pebbles screaming, “Pivot!” have been consistently overrun by the reversal of flow of US dollars from overseas back home, now getting extinguished at an unprecedented rate.

It was that extreme response by the market to the RRP rate that led to my asking that question. Nothing more, nothing less.

The implications of that question were far reaching. It led to a whole series of questions as to the knock-on effects. I wrote about some of these in the days after the Geneva summit where President “Biden” and Vladimir Putin hashed out a ceasefire over Ukraine. In that article I didn’t get everything right, but the main point, that the Fed was no longer willing to go along with the destruction of the private formation of capital, has more than held true.

Here’s the most important point:

The Fed is now ready, I think, to go to war with Davos over the future of money and they aren’t ready to hand over the keys to the candy store to a bunch of European commies, at least while also cutting Wall St. out completely of the New World Order…

…The plan {Davos’} is pretty obvious at this point: hand over the keys to capital formation to the central banks and destroy all risk assessment. Commercial banks aren’t needed. Only socially acceptable projects going forward will get funded. This is what Christine Lagarde wants with her new all-European Green Stock Exchange she introduced at Ankara last week.

But what’s clear to me now is that Davos went for the boob too fast on Prom Night at the Eschaton. It’s too much, too soon and the acceleration is exposing its flanks. Why would China and the U.S. go to war over COVID-19 and trade issues when they are being manipulated into it by a bunch of feckless Eurocrats with delusions of adequacy?

It was the possibility that the Fed, who ultimately answers to US commercial banking interests, is pursuing its own agenda that I explored in a recent podcast with Danielle Dimartino Booth, hoping to get her perspective on this widened lens of Fed policy rather than just focusing on inflation. In my opinion, Danielle more than delivered.

One of the biggest complaints about the Fed’s policies since the 2008 financial crisis has been that it has acted as the Central Bank of the World, rather than the Central Bank of the US. What I find hilarious, honestly, if not a little pathetic, is that the moment the Fed starts acting like a domestic central bank, the wailing and gnashing of teeth comes from all corners.

I expect that from globalists and vultures who love taking the Fed’s zero-cost dollars and levering them up to feather their own nests to build their own private empires in the shadow banking system. I didn’t expect that from the alternative economics space, however.

It’s like the Fed had just become everyone’s punching bag and that was that.

Ok, rant off. Back to the avalanche at hand.

Think back to 2021, or even the beginning of 2022, and remember that no one could even conceive of where we’d be today – the Fed Funds Rate at 4.75%, likely going to 5% in less than two weeks, and the term structure of dollar futures markets reluctantly admitting to a terminal rate between 5.50% and 5.75%.

I argued strenuously that in order for FOMC Chair Jerome Powell to make this new sovereign US monetary policy stick, he would have to ‘pull a Volcker’ and raise rates aggressively. This would expose the lies of the “Biden” administration about deflation and the need for trillions more in COVID-19 relief funds — the Build Back Better bill.

It would uncover who on Capitol Hill was aligned with the Fed and the New York Banks it represents, or, at least, who had their backing — Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D_WV) — and who was actively working against them. — Joe Biden, Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Lael Brainard, the Democratic Party and most of the Republican Party and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Even as I was making these arguments I never thought Powell would actually do it.

Then he did it.

And here we are today (well, March 3rd’s closing).

When I say markets reluctantly acceded to the Fed’s program I mean that just one month ago these curves were all signaling a Fed “Pivot” at 5% and that it would happen in June. Now the Fed Funds Futures is essentially flat at 5.45% until December.

But these curves are highlighting for me exactly what I’ve been preaching for the past two years. The Fed, through aggressive rate hikes and fundamental changes to its transmission of monetary policy, has placed the biggest burden on on US dollar markets overseas, not domestically.

Moreover, every major shift in policy, the statements coming from Powell, and the upcoming changes to US dollar markets themselves have supported this idea.

All of this was taking place against a gradual change in the foundation of US dollar markets phased in over a five-year period; the shift from LIBOR as the debt-indexing rate in US dollars globally to SOFR.

As of today there are three major futures markets to coordinate the supply of US dollars through time, the Eurodollar, the Fed Funds, and now SOFR.

But all of these ultimately were subservient to LIBOR because that’s where the overnight money markets took their cues directly from. The futures markets reacted to the LIBOR call out.

Remember in January 2022, the penultimate phase of SOFR’s replacement for LIBOR took place. That was when all new US debt had to reference SOFR as the baseline rate, rather than LIBOR. LIBOR was ending in June 30th, 2023.

Keep that date in mind. Because it looms large over everything currently happening.

Go back to what I’ve been saying for over a year, the Fed is not raising rates to combat inflation.

The Fed is raising rates to drain offshore dollar markets and force the offshore dollar trade to take its cues from the domestic cost of dollars as priced by SOFR, not LIBOR.

If you still haven’t been convinced of this argument, fair cop, but then why is the Eurodollar futures curve, at the first sign of bond markets finally believing the Fed is serious about not “pivoting,” trading significantly above both the Fed Funds and the SOFR futures markets? (see graph of yield curves above).

The spread being positive (26 basis points positive!) means the demand for US dollars overseas is far greater than the demand for them domestically. That spread is the pain threshold not for the Fed but for, primarily, the ECB and the Bank of England.

As much as we would like to blame the Fed for everything happening, creating scapegoats are simply a coping mechanism for being unable or unwilling to reconcile what is happening versus what we would like to see happen.

They are a reflection of our anxiety about that which we can’t control. And you can argue that I’ve done that with my incessant invoking the Davos bogeyman lurking behind the scenes, and, again, fair enough.

But that’s why we go deeper and ask the questions necessary to map out where everyone’s incentives are and how they would react to specific pressures changes in policy or personnel.

Bye Bye Eurodollars, Hello SOFR

Two years ago the idea that SOFR would successfully replace Eurodollars as the global market yield curve for US dollars was laughable. When SOFR was introduced in 2017 it was phased in with a five-year rollout plan, culminating in January 2022’s mandate. SOFR was the indexing rate of the US and that was that.

In December of 2021 SOFR futures traded around 290,000 contracts per day. By this report by IFR going from numbers from the CME, volume surged to 964,000 contracts.

Average daily volumes in SOFR futures reached 964,000 contracts in the two weeks ending February 4, according to derivatives exchange CME Group, up from about 290,000 in December and more than five times higher than their September level.

That was last year, less than a month before Powell began squeezing the Eurodollar markets to death.

Oh, but wait there’s more from Feb 2022:

But SOFR futures have also closed the gap this year to Eurodollar futures, the Libor-linked contracts that have long been a mainstay of rates trading markets and that SOFR futures are set to supplant altogether from the middle of 2023. SOFR futures volumes as a share of Eurodollar contracts have reached as high as 37% this month, compared with an average of 10% in the final quarter of 2021.

“There’s been a significant change in behaviour over the last few months and we’re now seeing exponential growth in SOFR futures activity. Records are being broken almost daily,” said Mark Rogerson, head of interest rate products for EMEA at CME Group.

“We thought there’d be an acceleration moving into 2022 when the regulatory guidance provided a catalyst. We’re now at a point where we’ve achieved critical mass in SOFR futures: liquidity is more than sufficient for almost all customers’ needs.”

Still not convinced? Why would you be, a year ago SOFR was doing 37% of the mighty Eurodollar’s business. Then let’s flash forward to February of this year with a press release from the CME itself.

CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, today announced new milestones in the growth of its SOFR derivatives contracts, with a single-day record of 7,558,467 SOFR futures and options traded and record open interest (OI) of 35,698,298 contracts on January 12…

…In the first two weeks of January 2023, the average daily volume (ADV) of SOFR futures and options traded reached 4,674,007 contracts. Month-to-date January 2023 SOFR futures ADV is equivalent to 572% of Eurodollar futures ADV and SOFR options ADV is equivalent to 1,334% of Eurodollar options ADV.

Ooops.

If this was a prize fight they would have called it on a technical knockout two rounds ago.

Oh, but wait, they already did. You see, this is why I sandbagged you for this entire article. One, because I’m an asshole and two, because so are the guys running the CME.

The CME announced back in October that it was suspending trading in its former champion Eurodollar Futures and Options on Futures contracts dated after (wait for it) June 30th, 2023. The last day of trading will be April 14th. For a little more fun you can check out the CME’s daily SOFR Futures report.

I think that avalanche is now so loud it could be heard from space. Poor pebbles.

SOFR knocked out the Eurodollar because that was the Fed’s and New York’s ultimate goal; to replace the global rate for dollars with a domestic one where the capital would have to trade here.

The globe takes its cues, not from what Europe or Hong Kong wants, but what America needs.

This stabilizes our banking system, taking back power the Fed had ceded under Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen and reminding everyone else just who runs Bartertown.

Most importantly, it pulls liquidity from around the world back into US markets, providing a foundation for a future where Davos doesn’t control DC. There are further implications of this but I’ll leave that for Part II.

The question I leave you with is the following, “Is there another, bigger avalanche further up the mountain?”

END

Dr Lacalle on why student loan debt relief is worse than we think

(Dr LaCALLE)

Why Student Loan Debt Relief Is A Worse Idea Than You Think

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 05:03 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The U.S. Supreme Court has heard different arguments from supporters and opponents of President Joe Biden’s student debt forgiveness program. It is probable that the justices will rule before June. However, it is important to remember a few challenges.

Student loans are an essential tool to help maximize the number of citizens that have access to the best and most exclusive tuition. American universities are among the top in the world and high-quality tuition comes with an elevated cost. To help the disadvantaged access top universities it is important to have a thriving and affordable loan system, a solid grant program and an open market that supports the majority, including those who are not in university yet.

We must aim to make the current system better, not maintain it disguising the problem with a deficit-financed subsidy.

A student loan debt relief program does nothing to solve the cost of tuition. It justifies it and will likely make fees rise again as universities see that the government subsidizes those that may take a difficult-to-pay loan. Furthermore, by providing a subsidy to the already indebted, banks may have an incentive to give loans to students with less probability to repay them. It is likely to create a wave of non-performing loans predicated on the view that this scheme will be prolonged and even increased. The reader may say that I am exaggerating, which I find interesting when we are living every day the result of debt accumulation excess.

A student loan debt relief program is a subsidy to take risky debt. It penalizes those that paid their loans and those that access new tuition, and it incentivizes others who did not take student loans and worked their way through college to take a risky loan. It may sound like a clever idea on paper, but it helps an exceedingly small proportion of citizens while hurting everyone else. Why? Because the loan relief program is paid with higher deficit, which means higher taxes and more inflation now and in the future. There is no revenue measure that finances this scheme because the government already runs a massive deficit. One cannot think of this measure without considering that the Federal budget runs an unsustainable deficit and that there has been no discussion of any budget cuts to finance this program, let alone the structural deficit.

Providing a subsidy to students that cannot pay their loans does not help them consume more. First, even if that were the case, the impact on total consumption of those that receive the relief compared to the negative effect for those that suffer higher taxes and persistent inflation does not even move the needle. However, I believe that the impact on consumption even for those benefitted by the program will be limited. It is unlikely that a partial bailout of the debt of a citizen is going to make a complete reversal of that person’s credit score. A partial debt release will make a small impact on one family or citizen, but extraordinarily little to consider this a stimulus for the economy.

If the debt relief of students is considered a stimulus for the economy that will boost consumption, why do the same proponents ask for constant increases in taxes for those that can consume and invest?

Would it not be easier to provide a tax deduction scheme that allows all those who take student loans to benefit from lower personal income burdens? Furthermore, would it not be better to agree with the financial system on support to help re-finance and re-structure non-performing loans in order to provide a market-oriented relief instead of a subsidy to excess debt?

The problem of the debt relief program is that it needs to be a subsidy so that the ones that receive it think that it was the government who helped them, not the taxpayers and consumers, who are the ones that pay for it in higher inflation and taxes. Any other, and more reasonable, alternatives do not create votes. If we looked for better alternatives, we would be thinking of providing support through a market-based re-structuring of debt and avoid the negative consequences of perpetuating and increasing tuition fees and elevated inflation as well as penalizing those that paid their debt. This student loan relief helps a few thousand to hurt millions.

There are numerous ways to facilitate a re-structuring of high debt burdens and the financial system can help to make it quickly and efficiently.

Of course, there must be ways of support to those students that took loans they cannot repay today. It must be a tailored, ad-hoc re-structuring that does not create negative perverse incentives for everyone else to take credit they cannot afford. It can include tax deductions for talented students.

The same students that think it is a promising idea to receive this relief will also pay for it in high inflation and higher taxes for longer.

end

Low income Americans are angry at mile long food lines forming after Pandemic benefits ended

(zerohedge)

‘The Government Is Trying To Kill Us Now’: Low-Income Americans Fume In Mile-Long Food Lines After Pandemic Benefits End

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 06:00 PM

Over the past year, 18 US states have officially ended pandemic-era states of emergency – including the covid food benefit, while a December mandate from Congress will end aid in March for the other 32 states, along with the District of Columbia, the US Virgin Islands and Guam.

The collective return to pre-pandemic policies includes enhanced unemployment benefits and child tax credits, as well as a rollback adjustment to Medicaid that boosted enrollment.

Now, people are waiting up to nine hours in mile-long lines for free food – some of whom say they can only afford to eat once per day, while others say they limit expensive food items such as meat for specific family members, such as growing teenage boys.

“I thought, ‘Wow, the government is trying to kill us now,” said 63-year-old Danny Blair of Kentucky. Blair, who lives in a mobile home with his wife, survives on his Social Security disability check, the Washington Post reports.

“They are going to starve us out,” Blair continued, apparently unaware that government assistance provided during the pandemic wasn’t permanent.

Blair and his wife hop into their truck twice a month at 4 a.m. to ensure they get a few staples at the Hazel Green Food Project’s giveaway. On a recent Friday, they waited nine hours until local prisoners on work duty started loading bags of meat and vegetables, potato chips and cookies into vehicles in one of the nation’s most impoverished communities.

From the front to the back of the line, the sea of despair and hardship along this desolate Kentucky highway foreshadowed what may be in store for millions of Americans as the federal government ended the remaining pandemic increase in monthly food stamp benefits this week. -WaPo

As the Post frames it, the pullback of pandemic-related aid could pose a setback to the Biden administration’s efforts to ‘slash poverty’ while building a ‘healthier and more sustainable middle class’ – none of which were the stated goals of the temporary aid.

“We saw positive benefits from this and less hardship, including for families with children,” said Dottie Rosenbaum, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who points out that all the free money helped reduce childhood poverty rates in 2021. “We can expect that to reverse now.”

Following the reduction in benefits, the average SNAP recipient’s benefits are expected to drop by around $90 per month, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. That said, an even greater reduction is in store for seniors and the working poor who receive assistance from other government programs, and will likely qualify for less.

In Kentucky, many seniors on food stamps saw their monthly benefit drop from $281 to $22 last year after the state ended the pandemic emergency in May, according to local food bank network, Feeding Kentucky.

Other states are preparing for the same

“We are bracing, and our agencies, member food banks, food pantries and soup kitchens are not prepared for what is about to hit them,” Said Ohio Association of Foodbanks executive director, Lisa Hamler-Fugitt. “This reduction, and end of the public health emergency, could not be coming at a worse time.”

Even before the benefits retired this month in Ohio, Hamler-Fugitt said demand at food banks soared last year as retail food prices rose by 11.4 percent nationwide, more than five times the historical annual average. She said Ohio charities and foodbanks served 3.1 million people in the last quarter of 2022, which she called a record and about 600,000 more than were served during the same period in 2021.

Now, Hamler-Fugitt expects many of the state’s 1.5 million recipients will also be scrambling to find food assistance, adding she projects the benefit reductions will remove $120 million from Ohio’s retail economy each month. -WaPo

“We estimate we would have to increase our distribution by 15 times to even begin to address this, and we don’t have the resources to do that,” said Hamler-Fugitt. “So hunger rates are going to increase among our seniors, and families, and our children are going to fall behind academically because they are not going to be able to concentrate on empty stomachs.”

Is this practical?

In Kentucky, GOP lawmaker Sen. Donald Douglas said during debates that it wasn’t practical to live “under a constant state of emergency.”

“Let’s ask yourself, should SNAP benefits be a way of life?” he asked. “Now we know it is for some. Should it be a way of life for adults?“

END

This is interesting: 13 counties in Oregon want to join Idaho

(zerohedge)

Is The Greater Idaho Movement A Model For National Divorce From The Political Left?

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 11:20 PM

They said it was an absurd waste of time, but now, the progressive coastal regions of Oregon and Democrats in Idaho are getting a little worried about the “Greater Idaho Movement,” with at least 11 eastern Oregon counties officially voting to leave the state and join their more conservative neighbors in Idaho. Democrats were saying that the move was impossible, but with momentum growing they are now suggesting that the break-up is “bad for the country.”

Why is it bad for the country if a handful of conservative counties decide to freely walk away from the state of Oregon and join with Idaho? Leftists do not explain the assertion, but one can deduce from their behavior a number of probable conclusions.

Common arguments Democrats in Oregon and Idaho make against the move are usually an attempt to dissuade Idaho citizens from wanting to pursue secession measures. The core claim is that the state of Idaho would have to subsidize the new counties, with Dems suggesting that rural areas are a drain on high revenue centers like Portland.

This stems from the leftist argument that red counties and states “cannot survive” economically when detached from blue regions.

It’s simply not true.

Firstly, if rural counties are a financial sinkhole for progressive states, then why are they so opposed to rural counties leaving? Would this not enrich blue counties beyond belief? While at least one study shows that Idaho would incur expenses such as Medicaid costs, it also shows that the state actually stands to gain an extra $170 million in net revenue with the new counties in place, along with an even greater conservative majority population, all without people being forced to relocate.

Secondly, if we are talking about economic usefulness, it’s important to remember that the majority of people that grow food, produce goods, repair goods and keep the supply chain running are conservative leaning. Leftists produce very little other than complaints and misery.

The big question Democrats are not asking is why so many Oregon counties want to leave the state at all? They don’t ask because they don’t care. Diplomacy and reconciliation with the conservative population has never crossed their minds. Only now with the secession movement gaining traction are they suddenly interested.

Let’s use the mega-leftist sanctum of Portland as an example of why conservative regions want to break away from progressive controlled regions:

In 2021 alone, Portland witnessed a 38% spike in violent crime including homicides and rapes. Property crime rose by 17%. The city also set an all time record for number of homicides in 2021. In 2022, the city breezed past the homicide record once again. Portland was once listed among the safest cities in America – Not anymore.

Crime rates skyrocketed almost immediately after Portland embraced the far-left BLM and Antifa calls to “defund the police.” The city had to reverse course on this stance 18 months later as the program proved to be a dismal failure.

On the indoctrination end of things, the Oregon Board of Education has advised schools to “keep student gender identities hidden from families.” This is on top of the already expansive agenda to inject gender identity politics into classrooms in Oregon. So, what they are saying essentially is that “we are going to brainwash your children with woke ideology, and we are going to lie to you about our curriculum to keep you in the dark.”

Public school policies in Oregon revolve around dictates drafted in progressive controlled counties. Rural counties can fight back by putting pressure on their local school boards, but it will be a constant battle with losing prospects unless they break from leftist influence completely.

Another big factor in making conservatives want to leave Oregon was the recent draconian covid lockdowns and mandates enforced by the Democrat controlled state government. Many conservative county officials fought back against these mandates while enduring threats of legal retribution and even arrest. The leftists revealed their true authoritarian natures during the pandemic event and a number of people ranging from conservative to independent suddenly realized how bad the situation can really get if they remain under the governmental oversight of Democrats.

It makes perfect sense for red counties to want to break away from blue states after the kinds of chaos leftists have created within our nation in the past few years alone. When Dems say this would be “bad for the country” what they really mean is that it will be bad for them. The Greater Idaho Movement may have a very slim chance of success in the long run, but it puts the issue of national divorce front and center in the public consciousness, and they don’t like that.

Democrat representatives like Ned Burns in Idaho asserts that the political system works best “When there’s a balance of different viewpoints,” arguing that efforts “to build a one-party state lead to extremism and that can be very dangerous.”

Idaho Democrat Senate Minority Leader Melissa Wintrow echoed this sentiment:

“While there are vast political differences in our region, Greater Idaho is not the proper remedy for those differences,” said Wintrow. “Our democratic republic depends on level heads coming together to find solutions to the issues that impact our citizens. Dividing state borders to create enclaves of politically like-minded people is the opposite of a healthy America.”

But we already have extremist regions of the country in the form of blue states, we saw that clear as day during the covid mandates. Not only that, cooperation within the status quo only seems to be the Democrat rally cry when progressives are in power. Only five years ago leftists in states like California widely called for secession from the US over the election of Donald Trump. Today, they rail against a few counties seceding, not from the country, but merely from Oregon.

The political left views everything through the lens of collectivism. They see people as property of their model of society, which they consider the only model for society. If Americans are allowed to walk away, then this might reflect badly on progressive society as a whole. If people are allowed to build their own systems elsewhere they might prove that the leftist system is frail, oppressive and unstable. If people have the ability to choose and take their county and their land with them, why would they stay under the governance of a leftist dominated place?

The ability to walk away would completely destroy the leftist socialist dynamic. They can only survive if they are able to force people to participate in their model while requiring those same prisoners to adopt woke beliefs. They see conservative congregation and secession as a threat to their aims to absorb the entire nation; not just half of US states, but all of America. The rest of the US would do well to take the Greater Idaho Movement seriously as it represents a feeling that is growing across the country – We are at an impasse.

There are two completely separate cultures in America today and they cannot coexist.

END

More tech layoffs coming

(zerohedge)

Meta To Cut More Jobs As Soon As This Week

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 08:47 AM

Meta Platforms Inc., the owner of Facebook and Instagram, is preparing to carry out another round of layoffs this week as part of its efforts to enhance organizational efficiency, according to Bloomberg.

The upcoming job cut is part of cost-cutting measures known as “flattening,” as per anonymous sources familiar with the matter. These insiders revealed that Meta had asked directors and vice presidents to compile lists of employees who could be terminated. This comes as the world’s largest social networking company has experienced a decrease in advertising earnings and dialed back investments in the metaverse.

The job cut, which could start as early as this week, will add to the November layoffs of approximately 13% of its workforce (equivalent to around 11,000 employees). Sources said the job cut would be ready before CEO Mark Zuckerberg goes on parental leave for his third child.

Zuckerberg has previously indicated 2023 will be a “year of efficiency.” He told analysts in February he is focused on “cutting projects that aren’t performing or may no longer be crucial” and plans on “removing layers of middle management to make decisions faster.”

According to the Financial Times, Meta team leaders and project managers allegedly have trouble planning their workloads due to the lack of transparency regarding the imminent headcount reduction.

As the prospect of new job cuts looms, workers at Meta have reportedly informed the Financial Times that no work is being completed.

“The year of efficiency is kicking off with a bunch of people getting paid to do nothing,” another employee said, adding that day-to-day work “is a mess.”

Headcount reduction at tech companies continues full steam ahead in 2023. Website job tracker Layoffs.fyi show 461 tech companies have slashed 125,677 jobs so far this year.

Here are the some of the largest tech job cuts over the last several years.

There’s no slowdown in tech layoffs.

3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

end

3c East Palestine train disaster//updates

USA COVID//

END

Looks like the USA will invade Mexico to get rid of all their gangs

(zerohedge)

Two Americans Kidnapped In Mexican Border Town Dead, Two Others Found Alive

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 02:10 PM

Two of four Americans kidnapped in a Mexican border town last Friday when their white minivan was ambushed in a shootout were found dead, according to AP News, citing a top Mexican official. The other two were found alive, with one wounded.

Tamaulipas Gov. Americo Villarreal Anaya said that one of the individuals found alive had been injured in last week’s violent abduction. “Right now, the ambulances and the rest of the security personnel are going to give the corresponding support,” he said, providing few details about the wounded person’s injuries and no information about where the US citizens were found.

Tamaulipas Attorney General Irving Barrios confirmed the developments in a tweet:

“Derived from the joint search actions, the four American citizens deprived of their liberty last Friday were found.

“Unfortunately, two lifeless. Investigation and intelligence work continues to capture those responsible.”

CNN said the group of Americans, traveling from South Carolina to Mexico so one of them could get a medical procedure across the border, were likely abducted at gunpoint in Matamoros, across from Brownsville, Texas, over mistaken identity by Mexican cartel gunmen.

Latavia “Tay” Washington McGee, 33, drove to Mexico with Shaeed Woodard, Zindell Brown, and their friend Eric Williams for the procedure, but she never made it to her doctor’s appointment on Friday, her mother Barbara Burgess told CNN.

On Sunday, Burgess said she was informed by the FBI that her daughter had been kidnapped and was in danger. “They said, if she calls me, to call them,” she said. –CNN

The kidnapping of the Americans underscores how the immigration policies of the Biden administration have exacerbated the crisis along the US-Mexico border.

SWAMP STORIES

This is exactly what we expected: the Jan 6 committee hearings were a sham

(zerohedge)

“They Lied To Us All”: Tucker Exposes January 6 Fraud And Kangaroo-Court Cover-Up

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 07:45 AM

On Monday night, Fox News‘ Tucker Carlson dropped unseen footage from the January 6, 2021 Capitol protest which revealed that the entire Democrat / RINO / MSM narrative underpinning the event was a complete lie.

For starters, the surveillance footage show Capitol Police calmly escorting the so-called “QAnon Shaman,” Jacob Chansley, throughout the Capitol complex, and even helped him find open doors.

“The tapes show the Capitol police never stopped Jacob Chansley,” said Carlson. “They helped him. They acted as his tour guides.”

Chansley, shirtless, adorned in red, white and blue face-paint and wearing a furry bison-head hat, emerged as one of the most iconic symbols of Jan 6. He was sentenced to 41 months in federal prison for “obstructing an official proceeding.”

The video of Chansley is jarringly inconsistent with the leftist characterization of Jan. 6 as an “insurrection.” Far from thwarting Chansley’s ambition to reach the Senate chamber, two Capitol police officers escorted him there.

Along the way, the trio passed a large group of Capitol police officers, who appear disinterested in Chansley, even despite his flamboyant attire.

The video shows Chansley and his police escorts approaching various doors to the chamber, with a police officer pushing and pulling them to see if they’re unlocked.

In light of the new video, it’s clear that a Nov 2021 Department of Justice press release hailing Chansley’s prison sentence gave a grossly misleading description of how the Navy vet and Arizonan reached the Senate chamber: “Chansley continued into the building through a broken door at approximately 2:14 p.m. He kept moving, reaching the Gallery of the Senate and then the Senate floor.”

“We counted at least nine officers who were within touching distance of unarmed Jacob Chansley,” said Carlson on Monday. “Not one of them even tried to slow him down.”

“The one very serious regret that I have [is] believing that when we were waved in by police officers that it was acceptable,” 33-year-old Chansley said in an interview aired by Carlson.

“I was told the QAnon shaman was leading an insurrection not the one who is being led by police throughout the capital building. No wonder all the footage was kept from us for 2 years,” tweeted Donald Trump Jr. “As always they lied to us all!“

Carlson also revealed that uncharged agitator Ray Epps lied during his sworn testimony.

“Epps testified that when he sent the text messages to his nephew, he had already left the Capitol grounds to return to his hotel room. That is not true,” said Carlson.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-lied-us-all-tucker-exposes-january-6-fraud-and-kangaroo-court-cover

The January 6th panel also lied about Sen. Josh Hawley being a coward.

“The actual videotape shows that Hawley was one of many lawmakers being ushered out of the building by Capitol Hill police officers, and in fact, Josh Hawley was at the back of the pack. The coward tape was a lie — one of many from the January 6th Committee.”

We also learned that they lied about the death of Officer Brian Sicknick.

“The January 6th Committee knew perfectly well that Brian Sicknick was walking normally through the Capitol after he was supposedly murdered by Trump supporters. And they know that because they saw this tape. We can be sure because the footage contains an electronic bookmark that is still archived in the Capitol’s computer system,” said Carlson.

See new Tweets

Conversation

Simon Ateba

@simonateba

BREAKING – TAPE 2:

@TuckerCarlson

Tonight begins releasing Capitol surveillance footage from the Jan. 6 protests showing that most protesters were very peaceful, were even helped by the police. Here is the lie about the death of Officer Brian Sicknick.

WATCHhttps://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1632926881413513216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1632926881413513216%7Ctwgr%5Eadccb81851d6f8be08547917e918a45c071b786c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fthey-lied-us-all-tucker-exposes-january-6-fraud-and-kangaroo-court-cover

Carlson will air part two of the previously unseen January 6th footage on Tuesday night.

END

Robert H to us:

Tucker Carlson Shows Footage of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick Walking Around on Jan. 6

No wonder the Democrats are in damage control today.
The only question is what else have they lied about?
And yes, with this ship of fools it is no wonder why the Fed says it will have to raise rates. Why, else would anyone send money to buy debt without a premium?

https://www.theepochtimes.com/tucker-carlson-shows-footage-of-capitol-police-officer-brian-sicknick-walking-around-on-jan-6_5104979.html

Joe Rogan Says Biden Is Mentally “Gone”

TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 10:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Podcaster Joe Rogan says he would rather vote for Trump than Biden because the president is “mentally gone” and his whole administration is a “sideshow of diversity”.

Rogan, who previously said he was a “bleeding heart liberal” who would never vote Republican, pointed to the White House hiring infamous luggage thief Sam Brinton as an example of the absurdity that surrounds the administration.

Energy Department official Brinton, a self-proclaimed “non-binary” man who wears lipstick and dresses, was charged with stealing women’s clothes from airports.

“That one person who stole all the women’s clothes. That Sam Brinton. That’s a diversity hire,” said Rogan, adding, “Look at this, a man who dresses like a woman, but has a beard and wears lipstick, you look and say “this is perfect for us.”

‘I don’t give a fuck what this guy’s good at or bad at, I don’t give a fuck what their credentials are, this makes us look like we’re inclusive.”

‘This makes us look like we’re on the right side.”

“You can’t have those kind of people running a Ben & Jerry’s. You certainly can’t have those kind of people running the most powerful government the world has ever known. It’s nonsense,” Rogan asserted.

The podcaster told guest Russell Brand that Biden clearly picked his cabinet based on politically correct tokenism and not on who would do the best job.

“I knew his cabinet would be this fucking sideshow of diversity — which is exactly what it is,” said Rogan.

The UFC commentator said he would “vote for Trump before I would vote for Biden” because “he’s gone, you know he’s gone.”

As we highlighted yesterday, First Lady Jill Biden slammed concerns about her husband’s mental competency as “ridiculous” in response to presidential hopeful Nikki Haley calling for such tests to be administered to political candidates above the age of 75.

The First Lady appeared to be confused as to the difference between questions over Biden’s physical and mental health, asserting that his ability to travel internationally proves he is mentally competent.

end

Victor Davis Hanson…the death of America!

Victor Davis Hanson: Life Among The Ruins

MONDAY, MAR 06, 2023 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

American society is facing three existential crises not unlike those that overcame the late Roman, and a millennium later, terminal Byzantine, empires.

Premodern Barbarism

We are suffering an epidemic of premodern barbarism. The signs unfortunately appear everywhere. Over half a million homeless people crowd our big-city downtowns.

Most know the result of such Medieval street living is unhealthy, violent, and lethal for all concerned. Yet no one knows—or even seems to worry about—how to stop it.

So public defecation, urination, fornication, and injection continue unabated. Progressive urban pedestrians pass by holding their noses, averting their gazes, and accelerating the pace of their walking. The greenest generation in history allows its sidewalks to become pre-civilizational sewers. In a very brief time, we all but have destroyed the downtowns of our major cities—which will increasingly become vacant in a manner like the 6th-century A.D. Roman forum.

All accept that defunding the police, no-cash bail, Soros-funded district attorneys, and radical changes in jurisprudence have destroyed deterrence. The only dividend is the unleashing of a criminal class to smash-and-grab, carjack, steal, burglarize, execute, and assault—with de facto immunity. Instead we are sometimes lectured that looting is not a crime, but lengthy incarceration is criminally immoral.

We have redefined felonies as misdemeanors warranting no punishment. Misdemeanors are now infractions that are not criminal. Infractions we treat as lifestyle choices. Normality, not criminality, is deemed criminal. We all know this will not work, but still wonder why it continues.

Many among the middle classes of our cities who can flee or move, do so—like 5th-century equestrians who left Rome for rural fortified farms before the onslaught of the Ostrogoths and Visigoths. For most of our lives we were lectured that the old southern states—Florida, Tennessee, Texas—were backward and uninviting. Now even liberals often flee to them, leaving behind supposedly cosmopolitan Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Chicago, Baltimore, and New York. The more people leave the blue states, the more those states praise themselves as utopian.

The less well-off, without the means to leave, hope that their environs have hit bottom so things can only improve. The elite who caused this premodern catastrophe assumes they will always have the money and wherewithal to ensure that themselves and their own can navigate around or even profit from the barbarism they unleashed. For them the critic, not the target of criticism, is the greater threat.

The hard urban work of the 1990s and early 2000s—cleaner, safer subways, secure nightlife downtown, clean sidewalks, low vacancy rates, little vagrancy, and litter-free streets—so often has been undone, deliberately so. We are descending to the late 1960s and 1970s wild streets—if we are lucky the mayhem does not devolve even further.

A mere 10 years ago, if an American learned that a man was arrested for clubbing, robbing, or shooting innocents, and yet would be released from custody that day of his crime, he would have thought it an obscenity. Now he fears that often the criminal will not even be arrested.

A once secure border no longer exists. Joe Biden and Alejandro Mayorkas simply demolished it and allowed 6-7 million foreign nationals to cross illegally into the United States without audits—to the delight of their apparent constituent, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

What would shame a Biden or Mayorkas? What would change their minds? Billions of dollars spent on social services for the lawbreaking at the expense of the American poor?

Would 100,000 annual lethal overdoses—12 times more than those who died over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined—from drugs that flow across the open border sway them? Or would it take 200,000, or 300,000 deaths before Joe Biden relented and ceased his chuckling?

What does a people do when its highest officials simply renounce their oaths of office and refuse to enforce laws they don’t like? Everyone knows the border will eventually have to become secure, but none have any idea whether it will take another 20, 30, or 50 million illegal entrants and 1 million more fentanyl deaths to close it.

Polls show race relations have hit historic lows. Much of the ecumenicalism of the post-Civil Rights movement seems squandered—almost deliberately so.

The Left now rarely mentions Martin Luther King, Jr. or even the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964. Perhaps it knows it has violated the spirit and legacy of both.

Today, our identity politics leaders believe that the color of our skin, not the content of our character, certainly matters more. The practitioners of the new tribalism in some sense fear outlawing segregation and discrimination by race. They know to do so would end racially restricted houses and safe spaces, racially exclusive graduations, and race-based admissions, hiring, and promotion on campus.

Read Professor Ibram X. Kendi and his message is implicit. For him, the problem with a Jim Crow-like system was not segregation or racial chauvinism per se, but merely who was doing the victimizing and who were the victims: so the original racism was bad; but racism in reverse is good.

We abhor violence, racism, and misogyny—in the abstract. Yet the entire hip-hop industry would find no audience—or so we are told by its appeasers—if rappers refrained from “ho” misogyny, brags of violence against law enforcement, and self-described proprietary use of the N-word.

Most know that young black males under 30 commit violent crimes at well over 10 times their 3-4 percent demographic of the population—so often victimizing the nonwhite. All know that reality must remain unmentionable even as its causes need to be debated and discussed if lives are to be saved. Yet the greater crime seems not the crime itself, but even mentioning crime.

Postmodern Abyss

Postmodernism in our age is deadlier even than premodernism. Sexually explicit drag shows that allow the attendance of children 20 years ago would have been outlawed—by liberals worried over the trauma of the young watching performance-art simulated sex.

Now the children come last and the performers first—as ratified by the same liberals. But to fathom the new transitioning, simply learn from ancient transitioning and gender dysphoria, an unhappy classical theme from Catullus’ Attis poem (stimulatus ibi furenti rabie, vagus/ devolsit ili acuto sibi pondera silice/ itaque ut relicta sensit sibi membra sine viro) to Giton in Petronius’ Satyricon.

Current “science” is now synonymous with ideology, religion, or superstition. Lockdowns, mRNA vaccinations, masking, transgenderism, “climate change,” and green power brook no dissent. They are declared scientifically correct in the manner that the sun used to revolve around the earth, and any dissenting Galileo or Copernicus is cancel-cultured, doxxed, and deplatformed.

It is now verboten to cite the causes of the current upswing. We must remain silent about the classical exegeses that cults, pornography, and constructed sexual identities, when not biological, were the manifestations of a bored culture’s affluence (luxus), leisure (otium), and decadence (licentia/dissolutio).

The classical analyses of an elite collapse focus on a falling birth rate, a scarce labor force, ubiquitous abortion, an undermanned military, and a shrinking population. We suffer all that and perhaps more still.

Millions of young men are detached and ensconced in solitude, their indebted 20s too often consumed with video-gaming, internet surfing, or consumption of porn. Many suffer from prolonged adolescence. Many assume that they are immune from criticism, given that the alternative of getting married, having children, finding a full-time job, and buying a house is society’s new abnormal.

Rarely has an elite society become so Victorian and yet so raunchy. A slip with an anachronistic “Gal” or “Honey” can get one fired. Meanwhile, grabbing one’s genitals while pregnant on stage before 120 million viewers is considered a successful Super Bowl extravaganza.

Our army is short of its annual recruitment by 25 percent. We all suspect but do not say out loud the cause. The stereotyping of poor and middle-class white males as both raging and biased, and yet expected yet to fight and die in misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, has finally convinced the parents of these 18-year-olds to say, “no more.”

Need we say anything about the lack of efficacy or morality of the Department of Justice, FBI, or CIA?

Or rather is there anything the FBI will not do?

Doctor court evidence? Hire Twitter to suppress the news? Monitor parents at school board meetings? Allow directors to lie under oath or “misremember” before Congress?

Swiping clean subpoenaed phones? Hiring fakers to compile dirt on a presidential candidate—and then using that known smear to hoodwink a judge to allow spying on Americans?

Suppressing evidence on a laptop to warp an election? Raiding an ex-president’s home with a SWAT-like team? Spying on Catholics in mass? Storming a home full of children of a man accused of a politically incorrect misdemeanor?

The more the military has been stalemated in Iraq, humiliated in Afghanistan, and dreading what China will soon do or what Iran will even sooner let off, the more it insists our priorities should be diversity, equity, and inclusion. Will that escapism ensure more lethal pilots, tank commanders, and Marine company commanders?

The mindsets of too many of our new generations of command are twofold: first to be promoted by virtue signaling woke policies that they must know eventually will hamper combat readiness, and then in the future to rotate at retirement into multimillionaire status by leveraging past expertise for defense contractors. Keep that in mind and almost every publicly uttered nonsense from our highest in the Pentagon makes perfect sense.

Them

There is a third challenge. Our enemies—illiberal, deadly, and vengeful—have concluded we are more effective critics of ourselves than are they. They enjoy our divided nation, torn apart by racial incivility, dysfunctional cities, and woke madness. (Notice how even the communists long ago dropped deadly Maoist wokeism, or how the Russians viewed the Soviet commissariat as antithetical to their military and economic agendas.)

Iran believes that this present generation of Americans would likely allow it to nuke Israel rather than stop its proliferation. China assumes that Taiwan is theirs and the only rub is how to destroy or absorb it without losing too many global markets and income. Russia conjectures that the more we trumpet its impending defeat, the more it will destroy Eastern Ukraine and call such a desert peace.

Our “friends” can be as dangerous as our enemies.

A visitor from another world might conclude Mexico has done more damage to America than North Korea, Iran, and Russia combined. It has, by intent, flooded our border with 20 million illegal aliens. It has allowed cartels with Chinese help to conduct multibillion-dollar profiteering by killing 100,000 Americans per year (did the Kremlin ever match that tally in a half century of the Cold War?).

Mexico drains $60 billion from its expatriates on the expectation that American subsidies will free up their cash to be sent home. The more the cartels run wild, the more money trickles down—while their top drug enforcement official Genaro García Luna was found guilty in a New York courtroom for collusion with the cartels.

How did all of this so quickly erode our great country? Our crisis was not the next generation of foreign Hitlers and Stalins. It was not earthquakes, floods, or even pandemics. It was not endemic poverty and want. It was not a meager inheritance from past generations of incompetents. Nor was it a dearth of natural resources or bounty.

Instead our catastrophe arose from our most highly educated, the wealthiest and most privileged in American history with the greatest sense of self-esteem and sanctimoniousness. Sometime around the millennium, they felt their genius could change human nature and bring an end to history—if only they had enough power to force hoi polloi to follow their abstract and bankrupt theories that they had no intention of abiding by themselves.

And then the few sowed the wind, and so the many now reap their whirlwind.

end

THE KING REPORT

The King Report March 7, 2023 Issue 6962

Independent View of the News

@MarketWatch: Shares of Apple surged toward a third straight gain Monday after Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng urged investors to buy, as a growing installed base of users provides opportunity for nearly 30% upside: https://t.co/9DJ07QKdmK

Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he cannot take money out of China
“I have an account with HSBC in Shanghai. I can’t take my money out. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country,” Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business…
   “The bottom line is that China is moving in a completely different direction than what Deng Xiaoping instituted when they started the big reform program,” he said, referring to the former Chinese leader. “Now you have a government which is taking golden shares in companies all over China. That means they’re going to try to control all of these companies … So, I don’t think it’s a very good picture when you see the government becoming more and more control-oriented in the economy.”…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/billionaire-investor-mark-mobius-says-he-cannot-take-money-out-china-fox-2023-03-05/

Chinese Stocks Decline as Congress Sets Modest Growth Target
Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth goal of around 5% for this year, below most estimates, as the NPC kicked off on Sunday. The absence of more aggressive steps to boost growth is seen likely to weaken the momentum of a nascent rebound in Chinese shares last week following the release of robust manufacturing data… https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-markets-set-weak-showing-075312322.html

ESHs traded modestly lower during the Nikkei’s 1^st Session. They spiked higher at 21:37 ET. The rally ended three minutes later. ESHs and stocks declined until 3:16 ET. Traders, of course, bought that opening dip in Europe. The ensuing rally ended at 3:51 ET. Selling pushed ESHs lower until a rally developed after the US repo opened at 7 ET.

Traders aggressively bought stuff for the expected Monday rally. After the NYSE open, another up leg appeared. ESHs and stocks peaked at 11:19 ET. European traders liquidated for their close. After a Noon Balloon, ESHs and stocks sank. ESHs bottomed at 15:31 ET and rallied modestly until 15:50 ET.

@gammalab_tweets: JPM estimates that a market shock of -1 to -5% would cause a 0DTE delta unwind of -7 to -14B, which would translate into a -4 to -8% move. In the worst-case scenario, a -5% market shock could lead to -$30B of delta selling and a -20% crash.

Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks rallied sharply in NYSE morning trading; the DJIA rose 40.47

Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks tumbled in NYSE afternoon trading; the DJTA fell 139.14
Bonds declined

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will Powell issue at least one bullish remark that generates a manic rally?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4057.16
Previous session High/Low: 4078.49; 4044.61

Matt Hancock’s plan to ‘frighten the pants off everyone’ about Covid – Leaked WhatsApp messages reveal how health secretary hoped to shock public into complying with ever-changing lockdown rules
   Throughout the course of the pandemic, officials and ministers wrestled with how to ensure the public complied with ever-changing lockdown restrictions. One weapon in their arsenal was fear. “We frighten the pants off everyone,” Matt Hancock suggested during one WhatsApp message with his media adviser.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/04/project-fear-covid-lockdown-files-matt-hancock-whatsapp/
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/03/05/matt-hancocks-plan-to-frighten-the-pants-off-everyone-about-covid/

Millennials’ workplace trend ‘Bare Minimum Mondays’ tackles ‘burnout’ of ‘hustle culture,’ TikToker says – The idea is for workers to prioritize themselves personally at the start of their workweek, viral TikToker Marisa Jo says
https://www.foxnews.com/media/millennials-workplace-trend-bare-minimum-mondays-tackles-burnout-hustle-culture-tiktoker-says

The Rise of Kickback Capitalism
What the government does best is throw your tax money at favored constituents.
   Real capitalism is, by definition, a meritocracy in which money flows to those providing the highest returns. No modifiers needed. Collectivism always fails for lack of meritocracy. America’s rugged individualism makes it most compatible with real capitalism. Sure, the U.S. always has had some patronage and cronyism. Elections are expensive, after all. But now we’ve entered an era of kickback capitalism, which has created a mangy mob of meritless mooches…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rise-of-kickback-capitalism-american-rescue-plan-government-benefits-debt-chips-act-inflation-reduction-act-smoot-hawley-e2a74ba8

Fed’s Powell faces Wall Street firing line on Capitol Hill
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), joined by nine other Republicans, told the Fed chair in a letter Friday that there’s no reason to hike capital requirements for the banks. (GOP stooging for big banks, again!)
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/06/fed-powell-wall-street-congress-00085649

Today – Powell gives his semiannual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. He will appear at the House Financial Services Com on Wednesday. Professional traders probably unloaded stuff after the early US rally because they want to be flat into Powell’s testimony. The Street expects Powell to have a modestly hawkish tone today.

For months, Jerome has issued hawkish testimony, speeches, and remarks. However, in his appearances, Powell tends to make an idiotic but dovish remark that unleashes manic buying. Recent history shows that when Powell, or other Fed officials, issue a tsunami of hawkish remarks, if they include even one obliquely dovish remark, most traders are so bullish that they incontinently buy stuff.

ESHs hit +9.25 at 21:15 ET.  There could be a relief rally after Powell’s testimony.

Expected economic data: Jan Wholesale Trade Sales-0.5% m/m, Inventories -0.4%; Jan Consumer Credit $25.35B (Prior $11.565B); Powell testifies at the Senate Banking Committee 10:00 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3992; 100-day MA: 3932; 150-day MA: 3946; 200-day MA: 3940
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,540; 100-day MA: 33,133; 150-day MA: 32,631; 200-day MA: 32,373

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4047.43 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4031.05 triggers a sell signal

On Monday night, Tucker Carlson displayed Jan. 6 videos that destroys the DEM/MSM narrative.
“It proves beyond doubt that democrats in Congress, assisted by Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney, lied about what happened that day. They are liars. That is conclusive.” – Tucker Carlson
https://twitter.com/July041776/status/1632913829662212097

Footage shows Capitol cop Brian Sicknick uninjured on Jan. 6 (Dems/MSM say he was slain.)
Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick still is described as a victim of January 6, murdered by Trump supporters rioting at the Capitol, despite an autopsy report which shows he died of a stroke the following day… To this day, media accounts claim Sicknick was “slain” on Jan. 6, and powerful Democrats, including Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi have continued to cite his death as evidence of a “deadly insurrection” at the Capitol that day.
   But hitherto unseen surveillance footage from inside the Capitol, aired by Fox News host Tucker Carlson Monday night, contradicts that claim. It shows Officer Sicknick walking through the building “after he was supposedly murdered by the mob outside.” Sicknick appears to be healthy and walking normally in the footage.  He gesticulates to protesters to move out of the building, and bends down to move a placard behind a statue. He also is wearing a helmet so, as Carlson points out, “it’s hard to imagine he was killed by a head injury… https://trib.al/XukSaQ8

Jan. 6 footage shows Capitol cops escorting QAnon Shaman to Senate floor
The footage aired on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show Monday night shows the officers closely following Chansley as he wanders the corridors of the Capitol… “The tapes show the Capitol police never stopped Jacob Chansley. They helped him. They acted as his tour guides.”… their footage has been vetted by congressional authorities to ensure it does not pose a security risk. They further point out that the January 6 committee aired footage of the evacuation routes of VP Mike Pence and Hawley…
   “Taken as a whole, the video record does not support the claim that January 6 was an insurrection,” says Carlson… In fact, it demolishes that claim, and that’s exactly why the Democratic Party and its allies in the media stopped you from seeing it. By controlling the images you were allowed to view from January 6, they controlled how the public understood that day. They could lie about what happened and you would never know the difference. Those lies had a purpose. They created a pretext for a federal crackdown on opponents of the uniparty in Washington.”…  https://trib.al/B49jafp

@greg_price11: Remember the infamous video of Josh Hawley running away from the chaos on January 6? Never before seen J6 footage shows he was in fact one of many lawmakers running away from the chaos in that moment and was actually at the back of the pack. (Jan 6 Com Dems called him a coward)
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1632919882890084352

@joelpollak: Tucker Carlson add that Ray Epps appears to have lied to the January 6 Committee because he was still in the Capitol, contrary to his statements, after he told a nephew via text that he had left after having “orchestrated” the riot.

@JMichaelWaller: “Carlson’s team says the J6 committee added audio to silent CCTV footage, inserting screams and other crowd mayhem sounds, to make it seem more ominous.”

GOP @SenRonJohnson: Truth is beginning to be revealed. Thank you @SpeakerMcCarthy, Tucker Carlson & company for showing America the rest of the Jan. 6 story. When will judges begin applying justice equally? Doesn’t look like “thousands of armed insurrectionists” to me.
https://twitter.com/SenRonJohnson/status/1632924556116541441

Biden stumbles again on Air Force One, almost falls on Alabama trip https://trib.al/PqiPERw

@realDailyWire: Kamala: “I went home one day and I said, ‘Why are conservatives bad, Mommy?’ because I thought we were supposed to conserve! Ha ha ha! I couldn’t reconcile it. Now I can! Ha ha ha.” (What the heck is wrong with her? One heartbeat from the presidency! Be afraid, be very afraid!)
https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1632866155432931333

@greg_price11: One of the Antifa members arrested on domestic terrorism charges in Atlanta last night is a staff attorney with the Southern Poverty Law Center. The FBI has historically used the SPLC as a source for who should be considered domestic terrorists.

@jeffreyatucker: Trump tells everyone today at Mara Lago that he left covid policy to the states. People listen and nod their heads. Sadly for him, he has not cleaned up his Twitter.
   @realDonaldTrumpa Apr 13, 2020: For the purpose of creating conflict and confusion, some in the Fake News Media are saying that it is the Governors decision to open up the states, not that of the President of the United States & the Federal Government. Let it be fully understood that this is incorrect…. It is the decision of the President, and for many good reasons. With that being said, the Administration and I are working closely with the Governors, and this will continue. A decision by me, in conjunction with the Governors and input from others, will be made shortly!
   @realDonaldTrump Apr 30, 2020: Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

Trump bashes Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp again over opening state  April 23, 2020
https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/trump-bashes-georgia-gov-brian-kemp-again-over-opening-state/

@realDonaldTrump Jul 20, 2020: We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

@emeriticus: Trump 2024 is Trump saying he’s gonna do things he promised to do in 2016 but didn’t. It’s a wonder why so few people on the new right are asking why we didn’t do mass deportations, why Paul Ryan got everything he wanted from Trump, or why Karl Rove advised the 2020 campaign.

The US is plagued with cult politics. People follow certain politicians regardless of the politicians’ venality, stupidity, or lack of integrity.

@CBSNews: All skin tests doctors commonly use to check for food allergies can provide false negative results, the Food and Drug Administration has concluded. https://t.co/Em2qP94ti9 (But the settled science!)

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter

I will see you tomorrow

Harvey

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LONG LINE UPS IN THE USA TO GET FOOD WITH THEIR DWINDLING STAMPS – altnews.org · March 8, 2023 - 10:05 am · Reply→

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