MARCH 8/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.15 TO $1814.70//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 6 CENTS TO $20.09//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $5.45 WHEREAS PALLADIUM CONTINUES ON ITS DOWNWARD SPIRAL CLOSING DOWN $12.50 TO $1381.50//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//DR PANDA//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TODAY: 1.MATHEW PIEPENBERG (PLIGHT OF CALIFORNIA AND THE USA AND 2.ZERO HEDGE DISCUSSING THE PLIGHT OF CHINA’S FINANCES// 3.DR SCOTT ATLAS//TWO OF TAIWANS UNDERSEA CABLES CUT BY MAINLAND CHINA AND THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR TAIWAN//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA: EASTERN SECTION OF BUKHMAT NOW IN RUSSIAN HANDS//FRANCE UNDERGOES ANOTHER HUGE PROTEST WHICH BASICALLY SHUTS DOWN THE COUNTRY//REPUBLICAN SENATORS DEMAND DOCUMENTS ON INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE’S COVID ORIGIN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//VC FUNDS SEE MASS EXTINCTION IN 2023//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 101 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 91 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 321 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 307 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5 661 C JP MORGAN 41 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 20 4 880 C CITIGROUP 1 905 C ADM 2 2
TOTAL: 449 449 MONTH TO DATE: 2,618
JPMORGAN stopped 41/449 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 449 NOTICES FOR 0 OZ or 1.3965 TONNES
total notices so far: 2618 contracts for 261,800 oz (8.1368 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 35 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 175,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2892 for 14,440,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FORM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.684. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 5101 CONTRACTS TO 127,503 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.88 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER WAS SET AT 121,299 MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.88). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A PLANETARY GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 5826 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 725 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 115,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 14.860 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 15.860 MILLION OZ/ //// V) COLOSSAL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –225 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 2426 contracts: OR 12.130 MILLION OZ . (485 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 12.130 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 8.505 MILLION OZ//INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5101 DESPITE OUR $0.88 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 725 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 110,000 QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 15.855 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN OF 5826 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 35 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 175,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A COLOSSAL SIZED 17,020 CONTRACTS TO 458,474 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 345 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 17,020 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR HUGE $33.20 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 44,500 OZ (1.384 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $33.20 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 21,473 OI CONTRACTS (66.79 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4453 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 458,474
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MONSTROUS INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,473 CONTRACTS WITH 17,020CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4453 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,473 CONTRACTS OR 67.863 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4453 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (17,020) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 21,473 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 44,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.345 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) COLOSSAL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,022 CONTRACTS OR 1,902,200 OZ OR 59.166 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3170 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 59.166 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 59.166/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 59.166 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 5101 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,503 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2023.
EFP ISSUANCE 725 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 725 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 725 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5101 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 725 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A MONSTER GAIN OF 5826 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //29.130 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.88 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.85 PTS OR 0.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 483.23 PTS OR 2.35% /The Nikkei closed UP 135.43% PTS OR 0.48% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.78% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9591//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9638// /Oil DOWN TO 77.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.08 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN OUTER SPACED SIZED 17,020 CONTRACTS UP TO 458,474 DESPITE OUR GIGANTIC LOSS IN PRICE OF $33.20. THIS ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4453 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 4453 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4453 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED TOTAL OF 21,473 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4453LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD AN UNBELIEVABLY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 17,020 CONTRACTS..AND THIS MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $33.20. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (8.345) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 8.345 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $33.20) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN OF 21,818 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 66.79 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 44,500 OZ (1.384 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $33.20
WE HAD -345 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 21,473 CONTRACTS OR 2,147,300 OZ OR 66.79 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 257,855// //fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 298,127/// fair to good
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2618 notices 261,800 8.1368 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i) Into Brinks: 32.15 oz
(one kilobar)
total deposits: 32.15 oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: nil oz
in tonnes: 2 tonnes
Adjustments; 3
2 customer to dealer
i) Brinks: 1060.983 oz
ii) HSBC: 11,477.907 oz
and one dealer to customer JPMorgan:
i) 64,334.151 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 514 contracts having GAINED 444 contracts. We had 0 notices filed on Tuesday so we
gained another 445 contracts or an additional 44,500 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April lost 6182 contracts down to 312,165 contracts
May gained 20 contracts to stand at 117
We had 449 notice(s) filed today for 44900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 449 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2618 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 514 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 449 x 100 oz per contract equals 268300 OZ OR 8.345 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (2618 x 100 oz+ 514 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (449)x 100 oz} which equals 268,300 oz standing OR 8.345 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2892 x 5,000 oz = 14,440,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(115) and the number of notices served upon today 35 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 2892 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (115) – number of notices served upon today (35) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 14.860 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 15.860 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 906.62 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 477.684 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Central bank gold buying is relentless. Even city state powerhouse Singapore bought 45 tonnes in January
(Schiffgold)
Central Bank Gold Buying Takes Up Where It Left Off To Start 2023
Central banks globally added another net 77 tons to their gold reserves in January, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.
It was a 192% month-on-month increase from December and above the 20-60 ton range of reported purchases we’ve seen over the last 10 consecutive months of net buying.
A late report of a 45-ton gold purchase by Singapore in January bumped the numbers up from the initially reported 31 tons.
The Central Bank of Turkey was the biggest buyer in 2022 and continued to add gold to its reserves with another 23-ton purchase in January. Turkey now holds 565 tons of gold.
The country has been battling rampant inflation. Price inflation accelerated to as high as 85% last year and was at 64% in December. The Turkish lira depreciated by almost 30% last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms increased by 40% on an annual basis, according to Bloomberg.
China reported another 14.9-ton increase in its gold reserves on top of the 62 tons reported between November and December 2022.
The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent until it resumed reporting in November 2022. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.
There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
The European Central Bank reported a nearly 2-ton increase in its gold holdings in January. According to the WGC, this was related to Croatia joining the eurozone.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan increased its gold reserves by a modest 3.9 tons in January after selling over 30 tons in November and December.
The only prominent seller in January was Uzbekistan with a 12-ton decrease in gold reserves.
It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.
The World Gold Council projects that central banks will continue to buy gold through 2023, but it’s not unreasonable to expect that the rate of buying won’t match the record level of 2022.
Looking ahead, we see little reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive towards gold and continue to be net purchasers in 2023. However, by how much is difficult to call, as evidenced by our expectations at the start of 2022. But it is also reasonable to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach the level it did last year.”
Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.
According to the World Gold Council, there are two main drivers behind central bank gold buying — its performance during times of crisis and its role as a long-term store of value.
It’s hardly surprising then that in a year scarred by geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation, central banks opted to continue adding gold to their coffers and at an accelerated pace.”
World Gold Council global head of research Juan Carlos Artigas told Kitco News that the big purchases underscore the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system.
“Even though gold is not backing currencies anymore, it is still being utilized. Why? Because it is a real asset,” he said.
END
Solar energy production could require most of the global silver reserves by 2050
(Michael Maharrey/SchiffGold)
Solar Energy Production Could Require Most Of The Global Silver Reserves By 2050
Silver demand was at record levels in 2022 and there is reason to believe it will continue to run hot over the next several decades. One reason is the rapidly increasing demand for silver in the green energy sector. In fact, an Australian study projects solar cells may use most of the world’s silver reserves by 2050.
Due to its outstanding electrical conductivity, silver is an important element in the production of solar panels. It is used to conduct electrical charges out of the solar cell and into the system. Each solar panel only uses a small amount of silver, but with the demand for solar panels growing exponentially every year, those small amounts of silver add up.
According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.
According to data from the Silver Institute, silver offtake for photovoltaics reached a record 113.7 million ounces in 2021. That compares to only 50.5 million ounces in 2013. Final figures aren’t in for 2022, but analysts estimate solar panel production used about 127 million ounces of silver last year.
The paper also noted that more efficient ‘N-type’ technologies now being developed require even more silver than current ‘PERC’ cells that make up more than 80%of the current market.
Some argue demand for silver in solar energy production will eventually flatten as the industry develops cheaper alternatives to the white metal. But according to the paper, even if the industry reduces the use of silver, demand will still increase.
The results show that the current rate of reduction in silver consumption is not sufficient to avoid increasing silver demand from the PV industry and that the transition to high-efficiency technologies including TOPCon (a more advanced N-type silicon cell technology, first scaled in 2019) and SHJ (Silicon heterojunction solar cells, which are very efficient) could greatly increase silver demand, posing price and supply risks.”
Silver possesses the lowest electrical resistance among all metals at standard temperatures. According to a Saxo Bank report in 2020, “Potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel.”
Further, due to technical hurdles, non-silver PVs tend to be less reliable and have shorter lifespans, presenting serious issues for their widespread commercial development.”
The study said recycling silver also won’t significantly dent supply issues.
Over the longer term, the recycling of older solar modules could provide a significant source of silver. However, further investment and research is needed here, and it may still be several decades before the volume of PV waste processed each year is enough for more than a marginal contribution of new silver.”
In the fall of 2021, Australia, France, India, the US, and the UK announced the launch of the “One Sun, One World, On-Grid” initiative. The plan is to connect solar energy grids across borders. This could provide a big boost to silver demand.
With billions of government money pouring into renewable energy, the solar industry is somewhat shielded from economic downturns. Even if the economy goes south, governments will continue to fund solar projects and other green energy initiatives. This means the green energy sector will likely drive demand for silver into the foreseeable future.
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
Mathew Piepenburg
This is a good piece: California’s spending is now out of control compared to its tax revenue. The tech layoffs are killing the state
(Mathew Piepenburg)
California Dreaming – State Metaphor for a Failing Nation
Matthew Piepenburg March 8, 2023
Below we consider the State of California as the metaphor of a failed state as well as the failing state of the American Union, which is anything but a dream.
Metaphors
For those already familiar with my articles, interviews or even daily banter, I have an admitted affinity for metaphors and analogies, as they help draw the simple from the complex.
As for politicians and political issues, there is always the risk of partisan bias and offending those who cling to only one perspective.
Fortunately, my take on the left or the right of current politics is fairly agnostic, as I view nearly all politicos as crooked as a dog’s hind leg.
Thus, as I turn my lens toward the state of California and its failed governor, I hope readers of the left or right can dispense with politics and just stick to math so that we can all get past the swamp of red vs. blue opinions and respect the objective facts of red vs. black balance sheets.
And when it comes to the State of California, she’s deeply in the red, and serves, ironically, as yet another broader yet applicable metaphor of the world economy in general and the United States in particular.
So, let’s dig in.
California Dreaming?
Oh, how I have loved California. It is home to some wonderful personal memories as well as personal wipeouts—and not just the surfing kind.
Its sunny appeal, however, is universally seductive, and like that famous Eagles song, one indeed feels like you can check in any time you’d like, but you can never really leave California’s tempting horizons and mythical spell where dreams come true.
Nevertheless, folks are leaving California, and have been doing so to the tune of over 500,000 exits in the last 2 years alone.
Why?
For those on the political right, California’s big-headed Gavin Newsom is an easy target.
His over-the-top COVID hysteria (similar to other failed experiments in Seattle, Chicago or Portland…) and unsustainable tax policies coupled with San Francisco’s soft-on-crime nightmare (car-jacking capital) and L.A.’s recent fall from City of Dreams to Tent City are all classic symbols of a failed state.
I once lived on this beach…
But let’s leave that issue, debate and fall to the woke, the left, the right, the angry and the smug.
For me, the math of California (whose nominal GDP ranked as the 5th largest in the world) makes the discussion far easier to sift through.
The Hard Reality of Simple Math
Like nearly all cornered politicians, Newsom is driven by obfuscating the obvious and trivializing the momentous (Chicago’s recently failed mayor of the nation’s “murder capital” comes to mind…).
For example, his January projected budget deficit of $22.5B (an already embarrassing figure which he nevertheless tried to downplay) was in fact off.
Way off.
It turns out that even Newsom’s “sunny” forecast and optimistic math had overlooked a few pesky facts.
First, the state’s monthly tax revenue for January was almost $14B less than the revenue for the month prior.
Secondly, California’s fiscal year, which started last July, is moving at a pace of $23B in less income than the previous year.
In short: California’s income stream is running toward an emptiness equivalent to Newsom’s IQ, despite sunsets as consistent as his immaculate wardrobe and “Hollywood” smile (smear?).
But as many Californian’s know—it’s not how things feel, but how they look which counts.
For the top income bracket, however, California’s tax bills (and revenues) aren’t looking good.
Even those wealthy and beautiful (from Topanga to Belvedere Island) are starting to squirm under a state tax structure that feels and looks anything but “dreamy.”
State tax for Californians earning over $1M is 13.3%, and the top 0.5% of California’s tax payers are responsible for over 40% of the state’s total tax income.
Many, of course, are getting sick of paying taxes for increasingly expensive sunsets, even from Orange County’s row of waterfront mic-mansions.
Furthermore, for those wealthy left-coasters who’ve lost their jobs or capital gains at Google, Amazon, Facebook and countless other Silicon Valley enterprises of late, that tax income is openly drying up, which means so are the state’s revenues.
“screw your freedom,” suggesting that the unvaccinated were all anti-science “schmuks… “
What a guy. What a dream.
But had some of Cali’s former leaders indeed studied any form of economics, they’d likely understand that rising deficits and falling revenues is the opposite of a dream—it’s the historically-confirmed prelude to a nightmare.
Even the once-reliable WSJ has confessed that California’s budget has imploded and that January revenues are poised to be down by 40% y/y.
Uh-oh?
One wonders how long the top 0.5% of California will want (or be able) to pay that ever-increasing bill as profits in their tech-heavy portfolios creep ever closer toward a cliff steeper than Malibu’s Point Dume.
California as Metaphor
Unfortunately, California’s embarrassing combination of tanking revenues, increased spending and expanding deficits is not happening in a vacuum.
In fact, California serves as a mirror to a broader problem within the United States as whole (or debt hole) …
Like the failed state of California, the equally failed state of the US government has a problem with incoming tax revenues, an issue I’ve been tracing throughout 2022.
Like the Californian wealthy 0.5%, the wealthy 1% of the United States taken collectively are the ones paying 40% of the national taxes.
And like California’s wealthy in general, the nation’s wealthy in particular get a lot of that wealth from a bubbling risk asset market whose best days are largely behind us and whose worst days (and hence weaker capital gain receipts) are still ahead.
In short, and like California, the United States is facing less tax revenues combined with greater deficits and increased spending, making the Cali crisis a leading indicator of a national crisis.
Uncle Sam’s bar tab (i.e., True Interest Expense) returns to Covid crisis/pain levels reminiscent of a seemingly forgotten yesterday:
In other words, the United States (along with California…) are mathematically heading toward a bar-tab (i.e., interest expense bill) as painful as the one we saw in March of 2020, when markets tanked and the Fed was required to print trillions in less than 8 months just to keep Uncle Sam’s nose (and Treasury market) above water.
For now, however, the Fed is not printing trillions via QE, but tightening ala QT.
Or stated more simply, US debt obligations are sailing toward yet another debt iceberg, only now the issue is not about too few lifeboats, but no life boats at all.
As I see it, and have said many times prior, the US is trapped with no easy solutions as debt levels are rising and revenues falling.
The end result is obvious, even if the precise timing of the iceberg is not.
Whether Powell’s Fed continues to tighten into a debt iceberg, or eventually seeks to temporary melt (monetize) that iceberg with more QE, the nation is doomed either way in a Hobbesian choice between tanking markets (QT-driven) or skyrocketing inflation (QE-driven).
debt elephant in the room–and all that this toxic debt inevitably implies.
Once debt levels become fatal, the direction of credit, stock, property and finally currency markets are easy to diagnosis, though the time of death is not.
Gold, of course, loves dying currencies.
The price of gold today, or the strength or weakness of the USD tomorrow, are frankly silly questions in the short term for any who understand the broader context of the long-term.
Currencies are always the last bubble to pop, and given that gold is a store of value rather than an instrument of speculation, gold investors (i.e., those whose aim is wealth preservation not asset speculation) recognize that gold never rises, currencies just fall.
Investors in physical gold therefore measure their wealth in ounces, grams and kilos, not highly toxic, increasing debased and (forever debated) fiat currencies whose race to the bottom is literally happening right before our eyes in real time.
To dismiss such simple deductions from admittedly complex market forces as just “gold bug” thinking ignores math, history and gold cycles.
But again, no one likes to see bears, even when they’re staring at them from the Californian state Capital.
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9591
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9638
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.85 PTS OR 0.06%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 483.23 PTS OR 2.35%
2. Nikkei closed UP 135.43 PTS OR 0.48%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.62 Euro FALLS TO 1.0545 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.496!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 137.26/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6760%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.4870%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.700…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.4780//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1813.00//silver at: 20.08 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 0/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.02//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.15/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, LOWERS TO .4960% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9425–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9939well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.972% DOWN 0 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.875 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0405 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,94…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.8305% UP 1 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rebound After Powell-Inspired Rout
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 08:06 AM
US stock futures were muted on Wednesday, swinging between modest gains and losses, one day after a market rout was sparked by yesterday’s warning from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the pace of interest-rate increases may need to re-accelerate. S&P 500 futures down up 0.1% by 7:45 a.m. ET while Nasdaq futures were modestly in the green, showing marginal improvements in investor sentiment after Tuesday’s selloff, when the S&P 500 suffered the biggest decline in two weeks. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed near the highest in more than two months, as treasury yields climbed across the curve, pulling global bond markets along with them. Oil was flat while gold and Bitcoin fell extended their fall.
In US premarket movers, Crowdstrike rose after the cybersecurity software company reported results and a forecast that beat expectations. WeWork shares also gained after Bloomberg News reported that the workspace rental company is in talks to raise hundreds of millions in capital to support the business. Meanwhile, Tesla dropped after Berenberg downgraded the electric vehicle maker to hold from buy, saying the shares now have less upside potential and more limited room for disappointment; also impacting Tesla was an AP report that the NHTSA had opened a probe for steering wheels that can fall off. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Edwards Lifesciences slides 2% after Wells Fargo cut the recommendation on the medical technology stock to equal-weight from overweight.
Maxeon Solar jumps 14.7% after the renewable energy equipment provider delivered 4Q results and a bullish first quarter forecast that beat estimates. Morgan Stanley analysts say margin and order improvements are happening quicker than expected.
Rigel Pharmaceuticals surges 32% after the biotech’s earnings per share and total revenue for the fourth quarter beat analyst estimates. While analysts said that Rigel’s update was in line with January’s pre-announcement, they were positive on the prospects for the company’s two lead commercial treatments, a leukemia drug and a treatment of thrombocytopenia.
Shoals Technologies Group falls 8% after an offering of 24.5m class A shares by holders priced at $24.70 via Morgan Stanley.
SoundHound AI shares fell 11% after the artificial intelligence company reported wider net losses for the fourth quarter.
WeWork shares gain 7% after the workspace rental company was said to be in talks to raise hundreds of millions in capital to support the business.
Zymeworks jumps 9% after the biotech company’s revenue for the fourth quarter beat estimates, with Stifel highlighting that net income was better than expected and that the development of the company’s esophagus cancer drug is on track.
US stocks dropped on Tuesday after Powell said the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated after economic data came in stronger than expected. Powell speaks to Congress again later in the day, and for the March 21-22 Fed meeting futures trading suggests a 50 basis-point rate increase is more likely than 25 — the magnitude of the Fed’s last move, although JPMorgan’s Bob Michele says a Fed reversion to 50 bp hikes would be “pretty confusing.” Meanwhile, money markets are now pricing US interest rates to rise above 5.6% later this year.
“We would be foolhardy to expect we can’t reach 6% on Fed rates, and clearly that has an impact on asset markets across the globe,” Rabobank strategist Jane Foley told Bloomberg Television. If the Fed has to work harder to get inflation down, “that certainly does imply recession,” she added.
“The market now seems fairly convinced that there will be some sort of recession, but the employment data is still very strong,” said Roger Lee, head of UK equities at Investec Bank PLC. “There is this dilemma in the market; clearly recession risk is going up, because interest rate expectations are going up, but cyclicals have performed well this year, and that’s inconsistent with the yield inversion. There’s a tension there in the market causing a lot of uncertainty.”
Following the Tuesday selloff, the S&P 500 fell below 4,000, and a break below the 3,900 level can lead to an increase in selling pressure as this level has been a significant turning point for the US benchmark since May 2022, according to JPMorgan traders. It will all depend on the data, however: with US housing and employment data coming later today, and jobs data on Friday, investors will likely look to these as the next gage of probability for the path of interest rates. Meanwhile, rising US treasury yields are also putting further pressure on equities markets, with yield on the 2-year treasury note reaching 5% on Tuesday for the first time since 2007.
“In the US, bond yields versus S&P 500 yield are virtually the same, so equities look unattractive,” said Joachim Klement, strategist at Liberum Capital Ltd. “In the US, the risk premium for holding stocks has declined to levels seen around 2008, very low. Whereas in Europe, it is at levels pretty similar to 2015-16. That’s simply a reflection of the fact that Europe and UK haven’t hiked as aggressively as the US.”
European stocks were on course for a third consecutive decline following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish message. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% with real estate, chemicals and utilities the worst-performing sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:
Adidas shares drop as much as 2.4% after the sportswear maker slashed its dividend, missing analyst estimates, with analysts also disappointed by the lack of firm medium-term targets
Darktrace shares fall 7.1% at London open after the UK cybersecurity firm, under attack by short seller Quintessential Capital Management, reduced forecast for free cash flow
Thales shares drop as much as 3.7% after the French defense company’s fourth-quarter earnings, with strong free cash flow offset by weaker guidance for cash in 2023
London Stock Exchange Group falls as much as 2.6% after Blackstone, Thomson Reuters and other investors sold about $2 billion of shares at a discount
Geberit shares fall as much as 4.5% after it reported a 4Q Ebitda that Morgan Stanley called “a touch light,” saying that destocking challenges at wholesalers are reduced but ongoing
Admiral drops as much as 9.4%, reaching its lowest in four months, after delivering results which analysts say show headwinds in motor insurance similar to its peers
Restaurant Group slumps as much as 14% after results from the Wagamama parent that analysts said were largely in line with expectations
Legal & General shares fall as much 2.2% as Morgan Stanley highlighted frailty in the UK financial services firm’s underlying full-year earnings, even as solvency looks robust
Fincantieri plunges as much as 9.3%, the most intraday since July 27, after the Italian shipbuilder released full-year results and an outlook for 2023 that came in below expectations
Continental shares gain as much as 7.4% after the German auto-parts maker projected an adjusted Ebit margin of about 5.5% to 6.5% for this year, an improvement from the 5% it reported in 2022
TeamViewer rises 3.4% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades, citing improving free cash flow outlook as the software company is set to end sponsorship for Manchester United football club
Quilter shares jump as much as 6.7%, the most in more than three months, after the wealth management firm reported full-year results that analysts said were stronger than anticipated
Sanford C. Bernstein strategists led by Sarah McCarthy said that while the equity risk premium has fallen in recent years, European stocks are still more attractive relative to bonds but that’s no longer the case in the US. BlackRock Inc. and Schroders Plc are among those who are weighing in on the debate of what will happen if US rates peak at 6%.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities also fell as hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve hurt appetite for risk assets, with China’s technology shares bearing the brunt of the selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.5%, the most in three weeks, dragged by Tencent, Alibaba and Meituan. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. Traders have since hiked their estimates on the terminal rate, with expectations for it to peak at about 5.6% in September. Stock gauges in Hong Kong and South Korea led losses in the region, while Japanese benchmarks were in positive territory. Still, regional emerging markets should get some buffer from lower inflation and close-to-peak interest rates.
Developed market “tightening will lead to slower growth and, ultimately, to cyclical recessions in the US, Europe and the UK later this year or next year,” said Matthew Quaife, head of multi asset investment management for Asia at Fidelity International. Emerging Asia, on the other hand, has the advantages of “falling inflation, peak monetary tightening, and attractive valuations,” he wrote in a note. The MSCI Asia gauge has been falling for two days, with sentiment shaky after a selloff in February stalled its rebound. The measure is struggling to cross its 50-day moving average amid concerns over the Fed’s policy path and a lack of major catalysts from the National People’s Congress in China.
Japanese stocks climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks on interest rates weakened the yen to its lowest in more than two months. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 2,051.21 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 28,444.19. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 0.6%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,436 rose and 615 fell, while 109 were unchanged.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.8% to close at 7,307.80, weighed by declines in mining and energy shares. The broad-based selloff comes after hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hurt appetite for risk taking. Meanwhile, the RBA has a “completely open mind” about its April policy meeting and will be guided by key economic data on whether to raise interest rates further or pause tightening, Governor Philip Lowe said at a conference in Sydney. Read: RBA’s Lowe Has ‘Open Mind’ on April Rate Pause, Says Data Is Key In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,855.54.
Stocks in India were among few gainers in Asia as the benchmark Sensex advanced for a third consecutive session, helped by gains in index-heavy ITC and Larsen & Toubro. All of 10 companies controlled by the Adani Group advanced after prepayment of $902 million worth of borrowings by the founding family. The S&P BSE Sensex erased a loss of as much as 0.6% to close 0.2% higher at 60,348.09 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar measure. Thirteen of the 20 sector sub-gauges rose, led by utilities and power companies. Realty stocks were the worst performers. Tobacco and consume goods makers ITC contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.1%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose, while 13 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. Rabobank’s Jane Foley predicted that dollar strength would filter through to emerging economies, which could find themselves having to tighten policy further. “That leads to the impression global growth will also be slowing,” she said.
The euro was little changed at $1.0542 after earlier falling to $1.0525, the weakest level in two months and close to year-to-date lows. Still, options traders don’t expect another big move over the next five trading days.
Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies were the best G-10 performers, reversing earlier losses
The yen was the worst G-10 performer and fell for a third day ahead of the BOJ’s monetary policy meeting later this week. Options traders trimmed hedges against gains in the yen, with 1-week risk reversals rebounding from near the lowest levels in almost nine months; 1- week implied volatility reached its highest level since mid- January. Super-long government bonds declined following weaker- than-expected auction results of 30-year debt yesterday
A decline in China’s yuan saw the central bank signal its intention to support the currency.
In rates, treasury yields were slightly higher, erasing a bigger spike earlier in the session which briefly pushed the 10Y back over 4.0%, with losses led by front-end as two-year yields rise another 3bps at 5.04% after Tuesday’s aggressive flattening move was extended during Asia session and European morning. 2-year yields cheaper by 3.4bp, deepening inversion of 2s10s by 3bp to -107bps with 5s30s flatter by 1.6bp; 10-year yields around 3.97% slightly cheaper vs Tuesday’s close with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2bp and 3bp in the sector. 2s10s spread reached -107.9bp, a new four-decade lows, while 5s30s breached last year’s low reaching -47.4bp, deepest inversion since 2000.
UK and German two-year yields are both higher by 3bps; in UK, money markets price in a 5% BOE peak rate for the first time since October, while core European front-end trades cheaper tied to Treasuries repricing. Bunds and Italian bonds saw minor yield upticks in the front end of the curves while they were little changed further out. In the US, the Treasury auction cycle continues with $32b 10-year note reopening at 1pm, concludes with $18b 30-year reopening Thursday. WI 10-year at 3.975% is above auction stops since November and ~36bp cheaper than February’s result.
In commodities, oil held onto its losses following Powell’s hawkish coments; WTI hovered around $77.50. Diversey Holdings and Permian Resources are among the most active resources stocks in early premarket trading, gaining 39% and falling 4.1% respectively. Gas markets are mixed with TTF firmer while Henry Hub is softer but remains above the USD 2.50/MMBtu mark. Spot gold is flat near $1,1814
Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell again, who’s appearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Panetta and the BoE’s Dhingra. There’s also a policy decision from the Bank of Canada. On the data side, at 7 a.m., we got mortgage applications data which showed a 7.4% bounce after last week’s 5.7% drop, followed by the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. and JOLTs job openings figures are 10 a.m. The US will sell $32 billion of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. In Canada, the central bank is due to deliver a rate decision at 10 a.m. New York time. Over in Europe, we got German industrial production (which beat) and retail sales (which missed) for January.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,990.50
MXAP down 1.1% to 159.95
MXAPJ down 1.4% to 516.16
Nikkei up 0.5% to 28,444.19
Topix up 0.3% to 2,051.21
Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 20,051.25
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,283.25
Sensex up 0.1% to 60,295.62
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 7,307.77
Kospi down 1.3% to 2,431.91
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 459.59
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.71%
Euro little changed at $1.0540
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $83.09/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,814.19
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 105.73
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
BOE policy maker Swati Dhingra cautioned against raising interest rates further, saying that doing so could damage an already weak UK economy
Ignazio Visco openly criticized ECB colleagues for making statements about future increases in borrowing costs when officials had agreed not to give such guidance
Riksbank’s First Deputy Governor Anna Breman said there’s a risk that it will take longer to get Swedish inflation back to target than earlier expected and there needs to be a broader fall in inflation pressures for the central bank to stop tightening
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s deal to solve the bitter dispute with the EU over Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements has sparked hope in the City of London that the two sides could finally formalize a pledge to work together on setting rules for banks and financial markets
Hungary’s headline inflation, the EU’s fastest, slowed for the first time in 19 months, to 25.4% in February from 25.7% the month before. The data matched the estimate in a Bloomberg survey
Japan’s bond market dysfunction has only worsened since the central bank doubled its cap on benchmark yields in December, keeping speculation alive that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may surprise investors one last time on Friday
Japanese investors became net buyers of US sovereign bonds for the first time in five months in January, according to the Asian nation’s latest balance-of- payments data released Wednesday
The surge in government bond yields over the past year is boosting the potential allure of debt for investors, even as it heightens the risk that governments will get overwhelmed by the soaring cost of servicing what they owe
Australia’s central bank has a “completely open mind” about its April policy meeting and will be guided by key economic data on whether to raise interest rates further or pause tightening, Governor Philip Lowe said
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower amid headwinds from Wall St where risk assets suffered after Powell’s hawkish testimony in which he put a 50bps hike for March in play and flagged higher terminal rate projections. ASX 200 was negative with the declines led by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors, in particular, energy after a slump in underlying oil prices, while comments from RBA Governor Lowe failed to appease investors despite opening the door for a pause at the next meeting as he also noted that it will depend on the data and that further tightening is likely to be required to return inflation to the target. Nikkei 225 bucked the trend with the index kept afloat on currency effects and as record current account and trade deficits in Japan add to the case for a slow exit from the BoJ’s ultra-easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with Hong Kong heavily pressured by weakness in property stocks and tech amid the higher global yield environment and considering that the HKMA would have to move in lockstep should the Fed turn more aggressive. Foxconn (2317 TT) is reportedly in discussions with the Indian gov’t about setting up a plant on its own, without any gov’t assistance, via Economic Times.
Top Asian News
US House Speaker McCarthy confirmed plans to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai in the US this year but stressed the meeting doesn’t preclude a trip to Taiwan later, according to Bloomberg. Taiwan’s Presidential Office also said authorities are making plans and preparations for President Tsai’s foreign visit this year and will announce when decisions are made, according to Reuters.
US CDC is to lift COVID-19 testing travel restrictions from China on Friday, according to a Reuters source. South Korea is also to lift the pre-departure COVID-19 test requirements for travellers from China starting on March 11th, according to health authorities.
Chinese Embassy in Germany commented on the report that Germany could ban Huawei and ZTE from parts of 5G networks in which it stated that China is very puzzled and strongly dissatisfied with the rash decision by Germany with no factual basis if the report is true, according to Reuters.
Japanese Ministry of Finance said the January trade deficit was the largest on record and that the trade deficit tends to swing during the export-slowing month of January due in part to the Lunar Year Holidays in China, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Lowe said they are closer to the point where it will be appropriate to pause and the timing of the pause will be determined by data and assessment of the outlook, while he added further tightening is likely to be required to return inflation to the target. Lowe also stated there will be several data releases before the next board meeting and if the data suggests a pause, they will do that but if the data suggests to keep going, then that is what they will do and will have a completely open mind at board meetings.
European bourses are mixed within very narrow parameters with sentiment generally tentative post-Powell and ahead of US ADP and numerous Central Bank speakers. Stateside, futures are in-fitting with their European peers, ES +0.1%, with Powell due to testify to the House in which he is likely to repeat Tuesday’s hawkish Senate testimony. China PCA Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (Feb): 10.4% Y/Y (vs prelim 9.0% Y/Y; vs -37.9% Y/Y in January); CPCA says Tesla (TSLA) exported 40.5k China-made vehicles in February (prev. 39.2k MM)
Top European News
BoE’s Dhingra says overtightening poses a more material risk at this point, through potential negative impacts from increased borrowing costs and reduced supply capacity going forwards. A prudent strategy would hold policy steady amidst growing signs external price pressures are easing, and be prepared to respond to developments in price evolution. “My conclusion is that, given little evidence of further cost-push inflation, further tightening is a bigger risk to output and the medium-term inflation target.” Adds, the FX rate is less concerning than other factors.
UK Chancellor Hunt is considering providing British firms with additional tax relief on investment spending in an attempt to boost economic growth, according to Bloomberg sources.
Ireland Central Bank said significant uncertainty remains for inflation and it cut its 2023 HICP forecast to 5.0% from 6.3% but raised its 2024 forecast to 3.2% from 2.8%.
ECB’s Visco says monetary policy will need to remain prudent and should be guided by data as it comes available; adds, he does not appreciate colleagues statements on future and prolonged increases in interest rates.
ECB insider says slowing hikes to 25bps, but hiking for longer could be a compromise, Econostream reports.
Traffic on the French part of the Rhine River is at a standstill due to strikes, and international traffic has been disrupted, according to a union.
FX
The DXY continues to pick up and has made a fresh YTD peak of 105.88 (prev. 105.63, from Jan. 6th) post-Powell; amidst this, and as the index pauses off highs, G10 peers are mixed overall.
JPY is the standout laggard given yield action and pre-BoJ where Kuroda is expected to maintain the ultra-accommodative stance at his last meeting, USD/JPY at the mid-point of 137.09-137.91 parameters and above the 137.44 200-DMA.
Outperforming is the AUD, though the upside comes in the context of the magnitude of downside experienced earlier in the week post-RBA and exacerbated by Powell; AUD/USD inching above 0.66, NZD around 0.61.
CAD is essentially unchanged pre-BoC (newsquawk preview available) with an unconditional pause expected though options imply 60pips of break-even for the event.
GBP was unfazed by BoE’s Dhingra, who largely reiterated her stance from the February meeting by saying a prudent strategy would be to hold policy steady, remarks which are less-dovish than peer Tenreyro who has said a reduction is a possibility, though hasn’t specified when.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9525 vs exp. 6.9551 (prev. 6.9156)
Fixed Income
Benchmarks are attempting to tick higher, though are within a handful of ticks of the unchanged mark, in what is more an attempted consolidation than any concerted upside given the magnitude of Tuesday’s action.
Currently, Bunds are at the top-end of 130.77-131.39 parameters with Gilts attempting to mount 100.00 as Dhingra makes the case, once again, for no further tightening.
Stateside, Treasuries are similarly attempting to grind higher ahead of Powell part 2, data and 10yr supply; yields mixed and inverting further with the short-end firmer and long-end slightly softer.
Commodities
WTI and Brent front-month futures remain subdued around yesterday’s worst levels after both contracts settled lower by almost USD 3.00/bbl following the Powell-induced selloff.
Gas markets are mixed with TTF firmer while Henry Hub is softer but remains above the USD 2.50/MMBtu mark.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.8mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing unchanged, Gasoline +1.8mln (exp. -1.9mln), Distillate +1.9mln (exp. -1mln).
Strikes are continuing at Exxon’s (XOM) Port Jerome (270k BPD) and Fos Sur Mer (140k BPD) French refineries, via Union; action which is blocking fuel deliveries.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged after Tuesday’s marked selloff with the yellow metal above late-February lows and the 100-DMA of USD 1806/oz; base metals mixed, overall.
Geopolitics
Russian embassy to the US said US media leaks on sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines are intended to confuse. Furthermore, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said the Kremlin is wondering how US officials can suggest anything regarding the ‘terrorist’ attack on Nord Stream without an investigation, while he suggested it is strange and smells of a ‘monstrous crime’, according to RIA.
US Event Calendar
07:00: March MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -5.7%
08:15: Feb. ADP Employment Change, est. 200,000, prior 106,000
08:30: Jan. Trade Balance, est. -$68.7b, prior -$67.4b
10:00: Jan. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.5m, prior 11m
14:00: Fed Releases Beige Book
Central Banks
08:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Columbia, South Carolina
10:00: Powell Appears Before House Financial Service Committee
14:00: Fed Releases Beige Book
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from a surprisingly snowy Surrey this morning. My commute into London is going to be interesting as soon as I send this. Even rarer than snow in Southern England in March, it was another landmark day in markets yesterday, especially for the yield curve, as the US front end hawkishness revved up yet another gear after Powell’s first testimony of the week. US terminal has now gone past our street leading 5.6% forecast and closed at 5.624% (+14.8bps) last night (5.66% this morning). With US 2yr yields up +12.2bps and 10yr yields +0.06bp we saw a significant further inversion and the curve closed below -100bps (-104.9bps) for the first time since 1981. 2 and 10yr yields are up another +5.5bps and +3bps overnight with the curve breaking through -107bps.
Bear in mind that on all the previous occasions that the 2s10s has been more than -100bps inverted since data is available from the early 1940s (1969, 1979, 1980 and 1981) a recession has either been underway, or has occurred within a maximum of 8 months. To highlight the rarity of such an occurrence, there have only been 7-month end closes lower than -100bps in 80 years of available data. So we are in rarefied air.
In terms of the specifics of Powell’s comments, the biggest takeaway was his openness to larger hikes again, saying that “we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes” if the data indicated. And he also pointed to a higher terminal rate as well, saying that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
Those remarks from Powell mark a significant pivot for the Fed. Last year they signalled and then delivered a slowdown in rate hikes, moving away from four consecutive 75bp moves to 50bps in December, and then 25bps at the last meeting. Up to that point, all the indications had been that they wanted to move cautiously and assess the cumulative impact of what they’d delivered so far. In essence, the signal was that any further hikes would be at a 25bps pace until they stopped. But yesterday’s testimony explicitly opened the door to a more hawkish reaction function, which throws open several tail outcomes that had previously been closed off. See our economists’ review of his comments yesterday, and what it might mean for Fed policy here. Powell speaks again today at the House Finance Committee but it’s hard to see much new news coming after yesterday’s remarks. The JOLTS data today might be the most important event for monetary policy.
With a larger hike now in play for the next meeting, futures adjusted accordingly and a +40.7bps move is now priced in for March. That’s closer to 50 than 25, so it implies that investors view a 50bps move as the more likely outcome now. However, remember that before the next meeting in two weeks time, we’ve still got another jobs report on Friday as well as the CPI print next week, so there’s still plenty of evidence that could easily tip the 25 vs 50 debate one way or the other.
With more Fed hikes being priced in, as already briefly mentioned, Treasuries experienced a significant selloff, with the 2yr yield (+12.2bps) hitting 5.0% for the first time since June 2007 and closing at 5.01%. That said, for 10yr Treasuries, yields were basically flat on the day (+0.06bps) with the dramatic flattening likely pricing in the higher risk of a policy error and hard landing. The increase in fed futures pricing also saw inflation expectations reprice lower with the US 2y breakevens falling -10.4bps to 3.28%. That was the first meaningful drop since the first week of February when it was at 2.3%.
The prospect of more rate hikes took the steam out of the recent equity rally, with the S&P 500 (-1.53%) ending its run of three consecutive advances with its largest daily loss in two weeks. The declines were incredibly broad-based, with just 30 companies in the entire index moving higher on the day. Similarly to the day before, non-cyclical industries outperformed with consumer staples (-1.0%) the “best” performing sector while cyclicals such as banks (-3.6%), autos (-2.8%), and materials (-2.0%) declined. There were similar losses for both the NASDAQ (-1.25%) and the Dow Jones (-1.72%) as well. In Europe the STOXX 600 fell -0.77% and missed the last 0.5pp of the US equity sell-off.
Unlike in the US however, European sovereign bonds actually put in a fairly strong performance. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.7bps), OATs (-4.7bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) all saw a substantial decline on the day. That was driven in part by very good news on inflation expectations, with the ECB’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showing a decline in January. In particular, median expectations at the 3yr horizon came down to 2.5%, having been at 3.0% in December. That’s their lowest level since May 2022, although there are still big questions as to whether this will prove to be sustained, since the 1yr expectation only fell a tenth to 4.9% (vs. 5.0% in December).
Overnight in Asia, Japanese equity markets are the only bright spot with most of the region otherwise selling off amid the overnight advances in US rates. The Nikkei 225 (+0.44%) is posting solid gains just as the Hang Seng (-2.53%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.48%) and the Kospi (-1.26%) are sliding. US equity futures are steady, with S&P 500 contracts (+0.03%) almost unchanged.
There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, but German factory orders unexpectedly grew by +1.0% in January (vs. -0.7% expected). That was driven by a rise in foreign orders of +5.5%, whereas domestic orders fell by -5.3%.
To the day ahead now, and we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell again, who’s appearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Panetta and the BoE’s Dhingra. There’s also a policy decision from the Bank of Canada. On the data side, releases from the US include the ADP’s report of private payrolls for February, the JOLTS job openings for January, and the trade balance for January. Over in Europe, there’s also German industrial production and retail sales for January.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
DXY climbs & debt attempts to tick higher in tentative trade – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 06:35 AM
Equities are mixed within fairly narrow parameters given the tentative post-Powell sentiment ahead of ADP & numerous speakers.
DXY has lifted to a fresh YTD peak, with peers mixed as AUD outperforms and JPY lags.
GBP was unfazed by Dhingra reiterating a preference to pause tightening, in remarks that were not as explicit as dovish-peer Tenreyro.
Fixed income is attempting to tick higher, in what is more an attempted consolidation than any real upside move.
Crude benchmarks are relatively contained around Tuesday’s lows with Nat Gas mixed and spot gold essentially unchanged.
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, International Trade & JOLTS, Canadian Trade Balance, BoC Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Oracle.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed within very narrow parameters with sentiment generally tentative post-Powell and ahead of US ADP and numerous Central Bank speakers.
Stateside, futures are in-fitting with their European peers, ES +0.1%, with Powell due to testify to the House in which he is likely to repeat Tuesday’s hawkish Senate testimony.
China PCA Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (Feb): 10.4% Y/Y (vs prelim 9.0% Y/Y; vs -37.9% Y/Y in January); CPCA says Tesla (TSLA) exported 40.5k China-made vehicles in February (prev. 39.2k MM)
The DXY continues to pick up and has made a fresh YTD peak of 105.88 (prev. 105.63, from Jan. 6th) post-Powell; amidst this, and as the index pauses off highs, G10 peers are mixed overall.
JPY is the standout laggard given yield action and pre-BoJ where Kuroda is expected to maintain the ultra-accommodative stance at his last meeting, USD/JPY at the mid-point of 137.09-137.91 parameters and above the 137.44 200-DMA.
Outperforming is the AUD, though the upside comes in the context of the magnitude of downside experienced earlier in the week post-RBA and exacerbated by Powell; AUD/USD inching above 0.66, NZD around 0.61.
CAD is essentially unchanged pre-BoC (newsquawk preview available) with an unconditional pause expected though options imply 60pips of break-even for the event.
GBP was unfazed by BoE’s Dhingra, who largely reiterated her stance from the February meeting by saying a prudent strategy would be to hold policy steady, remarks which are less-dovish than peer Tenreyro who has said a reduction is a possibility, though hasn’t specified when.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9525 vs exp. 6.9551 (prev. 6.9156)
Benchmarks are attempting to tick higher, though are within a handful of ticks of the unchanged mark, in what is more an attempted consolidation than any concerted upside given the magnitude of Tuesday’s action.
Currently, Bunds are at the top-end of 130.77-131.39 parameters with Gilts attempting to mount 100.00 as Dhingra makes the case, once again, for no further tightening.
Stateside, Treasuries are similarly attempting to grind higher ahead of Powell part 2, data and 10yr supply; yields mixed and inverting further with the short-end firmer and long-end slightly softer.
WTI and Brent front-month futures remain subdued around yesterday’s worst levels after both contracts settled lower by almost USD 3.00/bbl following the Powell-induced selloff.
Gas markets are mixed with TTF firmer while Henry Hub is softer but remains above the USD 2.50/MMBtu mark.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.8mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing unchanged, Gasoline +1.8mln (exp. -1.9mln), Distillate +1.9mln (exp. -1mln).
Strikes are continuing at Exxon’s (XOM) Port Jerome (270k BPD) and Fos Sur Mer (140k BPD) French refineries, via Union; action which is blocking fuel deliveries.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged after Tuesday’s marked selloff with the yellow metal above late-February lows and the 100-DMA of USD 1806/oz; base metals mixed, overall.
BoE’s Dhingra says overtightening poses a more material risk at this point, through potential negative impacts from increased borrowing costs and reduced supply capacity going forwards. A prudent strategy would hold policy steady amidst growing signs external price pressures are easing, and be prepared to respond to developments in price evolution. “My conclusion is that, given little evidence of further cost-push inflation, further tightening is a bigger risk to output and the medium-term inflation target.” Adds, the FX rate is less concerning than other factors.
UK Chancellor Hunt is considering providing British firms with additional tax relief on investment spending in an attempt to boost economic growth, according to Bloomberg sources.
Ireland Central Bank said significant uncertainty remains for inflation and it cut its 2023 HICP forecast to 5.0% from 6.3% but raised its 2024 forecast to 3.2% from 2.8%.
ECB’s Visco says monetary policy will need to remain prudent and should be guided by data as it comes available; adds, he does not appreciate colleagues statements on future and prolonged increases in interest rates.
ECB insider says slowing hikes to 25bps, but hiking for longer could be a compromise, Econostream reports.
Traffic on the French part of the Rhine River is at a standstill due to strikes, and international traffic has been disrupted, according to a union.
DATA RECAP
German Retail Sales YY Real (Jan) -6.9% vs. Exp. -6.1% (Prev. -6.4%); MM Real (Jan) -0.3% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -5.3%)
German Industrial Output MM (Jan) 3.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -3.1%, Rev. -2.4%)
EU Employment Final QQ (Q4) 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%); YY (Q4) 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%)
EU GDP Revised YY (Q4) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
China’s Commerce Ministry says China has not received a proposal from Washington yet regarding US Commerce Secretary Raimondo’s visit to China; open to the visit.
GEOPOLITICS
Russian embassy to the US said US media leaks on sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines are intended to confuse. Furthermore, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said the Kremlin is wondering how US officials can suggest anything regarding the ‘terrorist’ attack on Nord Stream without an investigation, while he suggested it is strange and smells of a ‘monstrous crime’, according to RIA.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is modestly firmer, within relatively narrow ranges given the broader tentative tone and is yet to undertake a convincing/lasting breach the USD 22k mark.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly lower amid headwinds from Wall St where risk assets suffered after Powell’s hawkish testimony in which he put a 50bps hike for March in play and flagged higher terminal rate projections.
ASX 200 was negative with the declines led by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors, in particular, energy after a slump in underlying oil prices, while comments from RBA Governor Lowe failed to appease investors despite opening the door for a pause at the next meeting as he also noted that it will depend on the data and that further tightening is likely to be required to return inflation to the target.
Nikkei 225 bucked the trend with the index kept afloat on currency effects and as record current account and trade deficits in Japan add to the case for a slow exit from the BoJ’s ultra-easy policy.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with Hong Kong heavily pressured by weakness in property stocks and tech amid the higher global yield environment and considering that the HKMA would have to move in lockstep should the Fed turn more aggressive.
Foxconn (2317 TT) is reportedly in discussions with the Indian gov’t about setting up a plant on its own, without any gov’t assistance, via Economic Times.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US House Speaker McCarthy confirmed plans to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai in the US this year but stressed the meeting doesn’t preclude a trip to Taiwan later, according to Bloomberg. Taiwan’s Presidential Office also said authorities are making plans and preparations for President Tsai’s foreign visit this year and will announce when decisions are made, according to Reuters.
US CDC is to lift COVID-19 testing travel restrictions from China on Friday, according to a Reuters source. South Korea is also to lift the pre-departure COVID-19 test requirements for travellers from China starting on March 11th, according to health authorities.
Chinese Embassy in Germany commented on the report that Germany could ban Huawei and ZTE from parts of 5G networks in which it stated that China is very puzzled and strongly dissatisfied with the rash decision by Germany with no factual basis if the report is true, according to Reuters.
Japanese Ministry of Finance said the January trade deficit was the largest on record and that the trade deficit tends to swing during the export-slowing month of January due in part to the Lunar Year Holidays in China, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Lowe said they are closer to the point where it will be appropriate to pause and the timing of the pause will be determined by data and assessment of the outlook, while he added further tightening is likely to be required to return inflation to the target. Lowe also stated there will be several data releases before the next board meeting and if the data suggests a pause, they will do that but if the data suggests to keep going, then that is what they will do and will have a completely open mind at board meetings.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Current Account NSA JPY (Jan) -1976.6B vs. Exp. -818.4B (Prev. 33.4B); Trade Balance Customs Basis (JPY) (Jan) -1695.9B (Prev. -1431.7B)
WEDNSDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.85 PTS OR 0.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 483.23 PTS OR 2.35% /The Nikkei closed UP 135.43% PTS OR 0.48% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.78% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9591//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9638// /Oil DOWN TO 77.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.08 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/
Now we are witnessing protests break out in major Chinese cities. The local governments debt of $5 trillion equivalent is burying them. But also $10 trillion in off balance sheet is making the situation dire. Many street cleaners and bus drivers have not been paid for 7 months. China’s debt to GDP is now over 300%.
(zerohedge)
Protests Break Out As Chinese Cities Drown Under $10 Trillion In Debt, Fail To Make Payments
TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 05:45 PM
The last time we checked in on China’s debt, the IIF calculated that it was just shy of 300% its GDP, a record high, and more than double where it was a decade ago. So to say that China has a debt problem isn’t exactly a surprise.
What may surprise, however, is that as China has been busy trying to sweep all this massive, growth-crushing debt under the rug (yes, there is a reason why the Politburo’s latest GDP target was a disappoint 5% and it begins with “d” and ends with “ebt”), it is starting to run out of hiding spaces and as the WSJ reports overnight, China’s economy is “being weighed down by the colossal debts of its local governments, which swelled during the pandemic and are starting to come to a head” and nowhere is this more visible than at the city level.
Xi Jinping’s now defunct zero-Covid campaign buried cities under billions of dollars in unplanned expenditures for mass testing and lockdowns. At the same time, Beijing’s crackdown on excessive property-market leverage led to a sharp drop in land sales, depriving cities of one of their biggest revenue sources.
As a result, the WSJ notes that according to S&P Global calculations, two-thirds of local governments are now in danger of breaching unofficial debt thresholds set by Beijing to signify severe funding stress, with their outstanding debt exceeding 120% of income last year.
About a third of China’s major cities are struggling to pay just the interest on debt they owe, according to a survey by Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm. In one extreme case, in Lanzhou, the capital city of Gansu province, interest payments were the equivalent of 74% of fiscal revenue in 2021. This is rapidly approaching the infamous “Minsky Moment” now that debt has moved beyond “mere” Ponzi financing levels.
Making matters worse, big chunks of debt are coming due soon: according to research by Lianhe Ratings Global, a subsidiary of a large domestic rating agency, about 84% of the $84.2 billion in offshore debt owed by local government financing vehicles will mature between this year and 2025.
Still, as the WSJ, the main concern isn’t that cities will default and trigger a financial crisis – although that can certainly happen assuming Beijing let’s them fail, which is unlikely – it is that cities will have to keep cutting spending, delay investments or take other actions to keep creditors at bay, impairing growth for years.
In Zhengzhou, home to a Foxconn assembly site for Apple’s iPhones, bus drivers say their salaries were cut in 2021 and haven’t been restored. Street sweepers report to work even though some say they haven’t been paid in months.
“Our salary isn’t high. Why does the country even owe us this kind of money?” said Xu Aiqiang, 67, as she swept a park on the west side of Zhengzhou. She said her company, a city contractor, hasn’t paid her monthly salary of around $320 for seven months. “Even if they aren’t paying me, I’m still keeping my areas clean, so I can see it for myself.”
At the same time, teachers in the southern megacity of Shenzhen are complaining on social media about sharp cuts in bonuses, an important pay component. In January, a heating company in the rust belt city of Hegang in northeastern China told residents to prepare for a cutoff in heat after the company failed to get subsidies from the local government.
As a result of these spending cuts, protests have broken out in recent weeks in cities such as Wuhan (best known for being the site of the infamous Covid lab leak), Dalian and Guangzhou over public healthcare system overhauls that have included cuts in medical benefits due in part to strained government finances.
In response to this growing social unrest, on Sunday, at annual meetings of China’s legislature in Beijing, Chinese policy makers offered only modest support for local governments, signaling they want to promote fiscal discipline. While fiscal transfers from central authorities to local governments, which Beijing provides annually, are set to increase to around $1.5 trillion this year, the 3.6% increase in 2023 is a far cry from last year’s 18% increase. Municipalities will be allowed to issue around $550 billion worth of local government special-purpose bonds this year, down from last year’s actual issuance of $580 billion.
A few days earlier, Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun played down financial strains faced by local officials, saying on Wednesday that the situation remained mostly stable last year and is expected to further improve this year as the economy recovers.
The good news is that Beijing still has plenty of fiscal room to intervene in individual cases if necessary to prevent major defaults, according to economists. Local governments can also sell off assets, if they can find buyers. However, the central government’s balance sheet isn’t strong enough to bail out every contingent liability in China, wrote Nicholas Borst, director of China research at Seafarer Capital Partners, a San Francisco-based investment firm, in a research paper on local debt released this month.
“Moreover, a one-off series of bailouts would increase moral hazards and not change the underlying dynamics that led to the problem in the first place,” he wrote, encapsulating the problem facing not just China but every western central bank.
That means local residents—especially civil servants—may see more salary cuts and reduced services, as well as fewer infrastructure investments to power growth and employment.
Similar to Europe’s period of austerity, “the real cost of the debt won’t be a financial crisis but it’ll lead to many years of struggling to allocate the cost of that debt,” said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University.
Officially, China’s 31 provincial governments owe around $5.1 trillion, including bonds held by local and foreign investors. However, those figures don’t include a variety of off-balance-sheet debts typically raised through so-called local government financing vehicles, which have proliferated in recent years to fund infrastructure and other spending obligations. The debts from those vehicles are expected to reach nearly $10 trillion this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As the WSJ puts it in context, the debt from those vehicles is more than the combined government debt of Germany, France and Italy as of the third quarter of 2022.
Interest on the debts crowds out other spending. The Rhodium Group research found that interest costs accounted for at least a fifth of fiscal resources in 25 Chinese cities in 2021. Anything over 10% — the case in more than 100 cities—leads to “meaningful constraints,” Rhodium said.
As discussed before, local governments’ debt problems have been building since the global financial crisis. Many became addicted to launching projects—which juiced growth—and selling land and borrowing more to pay for all of it. In addition, China’s local governments must shoulder most of the costs of services such as public education and healthcare. Beijing restricts how they can raise money, compelling them to send most of what they collect in taxes to the central government, while limiting what they can borrow.
Zhengzhou, with nearly 13 million residents, has healthier finances than many other cities. Its streets are vibrant, with residents crowding eateries. Yet in the past three years, Zhengzhou’s fiscal revenue dropped by 14% on average each year while total debt grew by 14% annually. Its debt-to-fiscal income ratio rose to 178% in 2022, from 75% in 2019.
Another street sweeper told The Wall Street Journal he hasn’t been paid by his company, also a city contractor, since he joined nearly two months ago. Another two months’ worth of salary remains unpaid from his last job, at a local sanitation department. He said he was told the district government hasn’t sent his company the money to pay his salary, equivalent to around $370 a month.
“Sooner or later they’ll have to pay me,” he said as he kept picking up discarded tissue paper and dried leaves. He relies on his son, a truck driver, to assist him financially, he said.
In late February, a bus company in Shangqiu, a city about two hours’ drive from Zhengzhou with around 7 million residents, said it would suspend bus service starting March 1 due to a “lack of sufficient fiscal support” along with other factors. The decision was retracted after Shangqiu’s government apologized for “negative social impact.”
Similar scenarios have played out in at least three other cities, according to local media.
While some analysts believe the odds of a financial system meltdown are low, stress could spread if more local borrowers struggle to repay loans on time. In December, Zunyi Road and Bridge Engineering Construction Group, a local government financing vehicle based in Guizhou, one of China’s most indebted provinces, struck a deal with banks to get another 20 years to repay loans worth more than $2 billion. The deal raised fears that other banks could have to bear restructuring costs.
At the end of the day, the concern is that Beijing is unwilling to make changes that could put local government finances on a more stable footing, such as implementing a property tax to raise more funds, because doing so would be politically unpopular and could undermine central authorities’ control over localities. It would also lead to even more social upheaval and protests: the one thing Beijing is truly scared of.
end
CHINA/TAIWAN
This does not bode well! Two undersea internet cables cut by China ships
(zerohedge)
“Wartime Scenario” Unfolds As Taiwan Suspects Chinese Ships Cut Undersea Internet Cables
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 12:05 PM
According to Taiwanese authorities, on Feb. 2, a Chinese fishing boat damaged an undersea communications cable that connects Taiwan’s main island to Matsu Islands. About one week later, a Chinese cargo ship severed another cable.
Located approximately 30 miles off the coast of China, the tiny island of Dongyin has quickly established a backup communication system, as reported by the WSJ. The new system uses a high-powered microwave radio to transmit data to Taipei. WSJ described the disruption as a “wartime scenario” and “in a potential preview of a Chinese attack.”
Taiwan has a network of fourteen undersea fiber-optic cables, some buried as shallow as 6 feet below the seabed. These cables are critical as they provide 95% of the island’s data-and-voice traffic.
If Western military planners learned anything from the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia made a considerable effort to severe internet infrastructure in the Eastern European country in the early days of the war.
The Ukraine war has demonstrated how vital the internet can be to a smaller country facing invasion, for both mustering global support and coordinating resistance. If China were to cut Taiwan’s cables, most of the island would be thrown offline, leaving it vulnerable. –WSJ
The loss of internet across the Matsu Islands has alerted Taiwan to the potential national security threat posed by Beijing, which considers the island nation part of China and has expressed intentions to take control of it.
WSJ said no evidence so far supports Beijing intentionally cut Matsu Island’s internet. Taiwanese officials have theorized that illegal Chinese sand dredging around the tiny island exposed the cables and allowed for accidental damage by vessels.
However, Taiwanese lawmakers warn:
“If an internet outage can happen on Matsu, the same could happen in Taiwan,” said Wen Lii, director of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Matsu’s Lienchiang county.
And there’s good news for Taiwan — just like Ukraine — satellite-based internet service Starlink offered by Elon Musk’s SpaceX provides high-speed internet that neither Russia nor China can fully disrupt.
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
FRANCE
The pension problem is still simmering: Today France was hit with massive strikes which brought the nation to a standstill
(zerohedge)
‘Bring Nation To Standstill’: France Hit By Massive Strikes Over Pension Reform
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 02:45 AM
As of Tuesday, a nationwide strike in France caused significant disruptions, such as halted trains, closed ports, empty schools, canceled and delayed flights, uncollected trash, and closed oil refineries. Over a million people participated in protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to raise the retirement age to 64. The strike is expected to continue through Wednesday.
“The idea is to bring France to a standstill,” said Fabrice Michaud of the railway workers’ branch of the CGT trade union.
Unions have called for a nationwide day of strikes for the sixth time this year. “Many protest rallies attracted bigger crowds than those organized since mid-January, including in Marseille, one of France’s biggest cities,” The Guardian said.
Marin Guillotin, an FO union representative at the Donges refinery in western France, emphasized:
“The real fight starts now.
“We haven’t been heard or listened to. We are using the only means we have left: it’s the hard strike … we are not going to give up.“
Macron’s proposition to prolong the retirement age has been met with considerable resistance from the public. The proposition seeks to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and increase the years of employment necessary to qualify for a full pension. Currently, it’s being deliberated in the French Senate.
END
EU
Now the EU is moving to form a natural gas buyers cartel
(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com))
The EU Moves Toward Forming A Natural Gas Buyers’ Cartel
The European Union will make its first move as a buyers’ group on the international gas market next month as it launches the first tender for suppliers.
The tender follows months of discussions on how best to secure natural gas supplies for the 27-member bloc in such a way as to avoid some member states outbid other member states because of their deeper pockets.
The solution was found in what would effectively be a buyers’ cartel, shopping for gas as one. According to Bloomberg, the first offers, from gas suppliers in the United States, the Middle East, and Africa are to be signed in June.
Price will be the sticking point in that joint buying exercise. One of the purposes of the whole endeavor was to keep gas prices low by buying in larger volumes. Besides, natural gas prices are currently a lot lower than they were a year ago. Yet the EU needs to buy a lot of gas and such bulk buying may very well push prices higher.
The total gas needs of the EU plus four neighboring countries amount to 24 billion cubic meters over the next three years, according to European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic. This is a lot of gas to be sourced on the global spot market.
“We clearly need to turn the economic tide in Europe,” Sefcovic told Bloomberg in an interview.
“I believe we’re creating a new system that will increase competition and bring in new suppliers and push energy prices down. Since we started this exercise, there’s enormous interest from international suppliers.”
According to him, some 50 gas suppliers have expressed interest in participating in the EU’s joint gas buying. There is also interest in joint buying from large industrial gas consumers in the EU, Sefcovic also said.
Price, however, remains of crucial importance. Europe has been paying a lot more for its gas than the U.S., for instance, and China, according to Sefcovic. This needs to change if the bloc is to remain competitive on the world stage.
“What is increasingly important is that we have to deal with prices. We can’t power our economy at such a huge price differential compared with the US or China,” the official told Bloomberg.
END
EUROPE/AFRICA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
The war is having a dramatic affairs re Africa.
(Gallagher//Naked Capitalism)
The Widening War: How The Nato-Russia Confrontation Is Playing Out In North Africa
Western officials are now openly admitting the war against Russia (and China) is worldwide and composed of competing blocs…
The colonial mindset comparison is apt as the West seeks to take control over African and Latin American resources. While this is nothing new, as the statements coming from the West make clear, countries that are friendly with Moscow and/or Beijing should expect even more concerted efforts at infiltration, sanctions, and any other means to restrict ties with the Russia-China bloc.
While some smaller states could benefit from being wooed by both sides, many will likely suffer as increased subversion and proxy conflicts are likely to play out in those countries. Take the comments from US officials to Bloomberg on Feb. 24 that the US, in year two of the war, is going to double down its efforts to “tighten the screws” on countries still keeping a foot in both camps.
This will be especially true in states that are resource rich – whether in oil, gas, or “green” commodities. These battles are already underway across Africa and are likely to intensify. North African countries have thus far been unwilling to help “isolate” Russia. The EU energy situation is still dire, which it is trying to remedy with a renewed push into Africa in search of oil and gas, as well as a race to control “green” resources. China does not want to give ground in Africa, and Russia, while seeking to prevent any isolation, can also sooner bring Europe to its knees if it throws a wrench in the EU-Africa energy plans.
Indeed, it’s hard to see how the West’s demand that states pick a side wouldn’t only isolate Europe further and exacerbate its energy woes, as I’ll discuss here regarding North Africa.
North Africa is also a promising place for the future production of green hydrogen, an energy source that is likely to be essential for the EU to fulfil its climate goals in hard-to-decarbonise sectors. And the region is also home to critical raw materials (CRMs) necessary for the energy transition, offering the EU the opportunity to further diversify its supply chains for clean energy technologies. North Africa’s young and well-educated workforce also offers the EU not only a potential workforce for technology manufacturing closer to home than Asian markets, but also the skills necessary for meaningful cooperation in areas such as research and development (R&D).
Algeria, just across the Mediterranean from Europe, is currently Africa’s largest oil and gas producer. It’s naturally a prime candidate to fill Europe’s gap in energy needs after the EU cut itself off from Russian supplies. Italy is trying to ramp up gas and energy imports and even locate electric vehicle industry in Algeria, but there are a myriad of problems.
First and foremost, the numbers just don’t add up. From GIS:
The entire African continent’s proven gas reserves are equivalent to 34 percent of Russian resources, and North Africa’s reserves equal only 10 percent of Russia’s. The African and North African gas production is 36 percent and 15 percent of Russia’s output, respectively. In 2020, total gas trade between Europe and Russia was nearly 185 bcm, about four and a half fold the trade with North Africa.
On the oil front, the same story that’s played out elsewhere is occurring in North Africa, which buys up Russian crude and increases supplies to Europe as a sanctions workaround. But back to gas: Europe, and Italy more specifically in its bid to transform into an EU energy hub, is trying to up imports from Algeria, but again there are infrastructure issues. During a Meloni trip to Algiers in January, Italy and Algeria signed agreements, including for the study and construction of an additional pipeline, as well as an underseas power cable, but those are years away. More from Natural Gas Intelligence:
To reduce dependency on Russian gas supplies following the invasion of Ukraine as others across Europe are doing, Algeria’s Sonatrach and Eni agreed to a supply deal in April. Algeria would deliver an additional 9 Bcm of gas in 2023 and 2024 via the Transmed Pipeline.
But the Transmed system connecting Algeria and Italy is not operating at full capacity. Algeria has had production issues. The country has not invested in new infrastructure to increase production in the past three decades, and it needs to divert gas to meet increasing domestic demand for electricity.
“The additional 9 Bcm from Algeria by 2023 is unrealistic, especially considering that Algerian supplies to Italy increased by 80% between 2020 and 2021, Giuli said.
Giuli said a large increase by 2023 can only occur if there is a diversion of flows from Spain to Italy. Algeria’s relations with Spain have been strained because Spain has sided with Morocco over a land conflict in the Western Sahara.
North Africa Pipelines to Europe. Source: Global Energy Monitor
So Italy is able to siphon off a little more gas because the flow to Spain has dwindled, but obviously this does nothing for Europe as a whole. The situation with Spain hints at the array of geopolitical issues that complicate efforts to turn North Africa into Europe’s new primary source of energy. More cross-border cooperation and energy trade (especially third-party pipeline access) would be beneficial to both North Africa and Europe, but the region is racked by divisions. NATO destroying Libya in 2011 certainly didn’t help matters, as Egypt is effectively cut off from its North African neighbors, but Algeria and Morocco also have their own rivalry. From the Barcelona Center for International Affairs:
Combined with Algeria’s traditional rivalry with Morocco, this has resulted in the closure of the pipeline which until last autumn carried Algerian gas to the Iberian Peninsula via Morocco, even as Medgaz has remained open, which carries Algerian gas directly to Spain. This closure was effective well before Spain’s change of position on the eventual status of the disputed territory of the Western Sahara [backing Morocco]. Algeria expressed its displeasure at the Spanish move but continues to value Spain as its second-largest gas client.
Spain, which has roughly twice the regasification capacity its domestic market requires, will only be able to contribute more to the EU’s overall gas security when France’s nuclear lobby lifts its longstanding veto on increasing the 7 bcm capacity of the gas line that carries gas northward across the Pyrenees. The Iberian corridor will then come into its own. Meanwhile, flows in the Maghreb–Europe pipeline restarted on June 28th 2022, with reverse flows of gas using the pipeline that closed on November 1st 2021 when Algeria cut off supplies to Morocco. The largest German energy company RWE has won the contract that allows Morocco to access Europe’s largest LNG market.
Meanwhile Morocco is developing other energy links beyond the EU with the United Kingdom. Energy tech pioneer Octopus Energy Group, in partnership with Xlinks, last May contracted to build the world’s largest subsea power cable to deliver renewable energy from Morocco to Devon in the southwest of the United Kingdom. This project fits with Morocco’s longstanding ambition to become a world leader in solar energy.
Currently Morocco is a net importer of energy, the majority of which comes from coal, but it could become a transfer point for the energy resources from further south in the Sahel. There are also big plans to make Morocco (and to a lesser extent, Tunisia and Egypt) a major supplier of green energy to the EU.
Beyond Natural Gas
Morocco’s Noor and Egypt’s Benban solar farms, two of the largest in the world, were originally meant to reduce the countries’ reliance on coal. But both (and many more solar farms and wind projects across North Africa) are now set to send their energy to Europe.
Additionally, both Egypt and Morocco are also planning to manufacture “green” hydrogen and ammonia, made with renewable power, for export to Europe. These plans don’t come without major environmental and social consequences for North African countries.
The “clean” power is destined for Europe rather than domestic or regional use in Africa. Desert ecosystems will be destroyed. Nomadic tribes will lose land and routes for their livestock pastures. The projects will also use up what little water resources are available in the areas they take root. The wider areas also typically become militarized with surveillance towers to guard the sites and the water. More from Yale Environment 360:
Atman Aoui, president of the Moroccan Association for Mediation, an NGO, sees large renewable projects such as the Noor solar park as part of a wider attempt to take control of desert regions that have previously been the domain of tribal groups. The sheer scale of the projects is “challenging assumptions that a low-carbon energy transition is inherently progressive,” he says.
Noting the scheme’s use of large amounts of water, he adds, “The irony that a project intended to mitigate climate change is only worsening the effects of climate change in one of Morocco’s poorest and most water-stressed regions is not lost on residents.”
Much like Algeria and Italy, Morocco has been negotiating with European electric vehicle battery manufacturers to set up a plant in the country, aiming to exploit its cobalt and phosphate resources. A large share of Morocco’s natural resources are located in the disputed territory of Western Sahara.
Citroen plans to double its production capacity Morocco within two years from 50,000 supermini electric cars. Morocco is home to production plants of Renault and Citroen parent company Stellantis with a current combined production capacity of 700,000. Plans are in the works to increase that number to one million. According to Reuters, Morocco’s automotive manufacturers and part makers were the country’s top exporters over the past seven years surpassing phosphate sales.
You can start to see how the Brussels brain is spinning: The clean energy comes in, and the and industry goes out where it’s joined by the mining – a better delineation of the garden-jungle boundaries, as EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell likes to describe it. More on that thought process from the European Council on Foreign Relations:
The European Green Deal aims to scale up the commercial application of breakthrough clean technology innovation. By diversifying supply chains in this sector, the EU hopes to reduce its reliance on the dominant players, including the United States and China. North Africa’s skilled labour force gives countries there the potential to become important partners in this endeavour. Europeans should seek to build secure, cost-effective, ethical, and sustainable supply chains for transition-related technologies under a common umbrella framework.
Horizon Europe, the EU’s research and innovation programme, could also be an important instrument to support R&D in North Africa. It contains a focus on climate change and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and offers a separate funding stream for research and innovation.
Using European funds to relocate industry outside the EU? That should play well with the proles.
Russia and China Involvement in North Africa
Russia has long standing close ties with Algeria, and Beijing and Algiers have also grown closer. Foreign Policy:
China has been the main exporter to Algeria since 2013, displacing former colonial power France, and the pair signed a second five-year strategic cooperation pact earlier in November. Meanwhile, Russia supplies around 80 percent of Algeria’s weapons, making Algeria Russia’s third-largest arms importer, after India and China. Algiers and Moscow held joint military exercises near the Moroccan border in November.
Algeria also applied in November to join the BRICS shortly after signed up to extend Belt and Road Initiative projects with China on infrastructure, energy, and space exploration.
Moscow has kept quiet on the increase in Algeria’s gas production for Europe, but many European MPs and US congress members are calling for sanctions on Algeria as a result of its ties with Russia. To do so would likely cut off another of Europe’s energy sources, however.
The US, fearful of Russia’s influence in Algeria, is planning to build a military-industrial base in Morocco. Additionally, the US announced a $1 billion arms sale agreement with Morocco in 2020 that included drones and precision-guided munitions, signed a 10-year military cooperation deal, and last year, the US sent wireless tactical and ground control systems to Rabat.
Still, Morocco is trying to maintain a foot in both East and West camps. Rabat abstained during a recent UN General Assembly vote to condemn Russian aggression, and ignored US efforts to join the western camp. The arrangement has benefits for Morocco. Middle East Eye explains:
Chtatou, the professor at Mohammed V University, told MEE that Morocco’s friendly relations with Russia were economically driven.
“Morocco has no choice but to remain neutral,” Chtatou said. “Basically, the country is an ally of the West but it also has good relations with Russia and China. As much as the country needs the U.S. and Europe for investment, it also needs the eastern world for technology and trade, so neutrality can pay.”
As Western countries limited their imports of Russian fossil fuels, Morocco increased its own. In 2022, the kingdom imported 735,000 tonnes of diesel fuel from Russia, 11 times more than in 2021.
International sanctions have also complicated the ability of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of fertiliser in 2020, to sell this crucial product. Morocco, the fourth-largest exporter that year, responded with plans to up its production of phosphates by 10 percent.
The Western Sahara Issue
Where the opposing blocs, the North African countries, and control of green energy resources really comes together is in Western Sahara. Morocco is increasingly extracting resources and erecting wind and solar farms beyond its southern border in Western Sahara despite the territory not being internationally recognized as part of Morocco. More from Yale Environment 360:
Morocco has already installed three large wind farms and two solar farms in Western Sahara, all hooked up to the Moroccan grid. The largest wind farm, comprising 56 giant turbines erected onshore by a Scottish company close to the coastal fishing village of Aftissat, is now to be doubled in size to more than 400 megawatts, following an agreement signed in 2021 by Morocco with a subsidiary of General Electric.
A war for liberation continues in Western Sahara, waged by guerillas at least partly based in Algeria, where many refugees live in camps. Despite its historic military and economic partnership with Algeria, Russia, is trying to placate all sides. While calling for a “just” and “mutually acceptable” solution to the conflict in Western Sahara, it is also seeking detente with Rabat. Morocco is not on Moscow’s list of pro-Atlantic states and continues to receive annual imports of wheat from Russia.
In recent years, the US got fully behind Morocco despite such a stance flying in the face of the “rules-based international order.” The details from The Progressive:
Western Sahara — formally known as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) — has been recognized at various points in time by 84 countries and is a full member state of the African Union. Morocco invaded that nation, then known as Spanish Sahara, just prior to its scheduled independence from colonial rule in 1975.
The United Nations Security Council, the U.N. General Assembly, and the International Court of Justice have all gone on record asserting Western Sahara’s right to self-determination. For decades, no international body or foreign governments have recognized Western Sahara as part of Morocco.
However, in his final weeks in office, former President Donald Trump formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the occupied country, including roughly 25% of Western Sahara still under the control of the SADR government. The Biden administration has rejected bipartisan calls to reverse Trump’s decision and the United States remains an international outlier.
Washington is now joined in its support of Morocco by other European countries such as Germany and Spain. The backing for Rabat comes despite UN legal counsel that exploiting the region’s region’s natural resources “in disregard of the interests and wishes of the people of Western Sahara would be in violation of the principles of international law”.
Hey sometimes the “rules-based international order” has just gotta do what it’s gotta do.
Assuming she’s talking about anything beyond the LNG profiteering, maybe this is part of the US promise to lend a helping hand to Europe after blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.
end
5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA/
USA trying to extricate itself from their culpability in the blowing up of the NordStream I and II
(zerohedge)
“Coordinated Media Hoax Campaign” – Russia Blasts NYTimes Report On Nord Stream “Monstrous Crime”
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 09:19 AM
As a reminder, last month, Pulitzer prize winning journalist Seymour Hershconcluded that the United States blew up the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September as part of a covert operation under the guise of the BALTOPS 22 NATO exercise.
Yesterday, four weeks after Hersh’s bombshell report, anonymous US intelligence officials told the NY Times that the saboteurs are likely “pro-Ukraine, possibly government-trained Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two,” but that “no American or British nationals were involved.“
In response, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of President Zelensky’s office said:
“Ukraine has nothing to do with the incident in the Baltic Sea and has no information about “pro-Ukrainian subversive groups.”
That should not be a surprise as the report goes on (multiple times) to claim that there’s “no evidence so far of the Ukrainian government’s complicity in the attack on the pipelines.”
“I wonder who allows such leaks, filling the media scene with them?” asked Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
“The answer is: those who do not want to conduct an investigation in the legal field and are going to divert the attention of the audience from the facts in every possible way.”
Andrey Ledenev, Minister Counselor of the Russian Embassy in the United States, said the report served to protect the true culprits behind the attack.
“We have no faith in the “impartiality” of the conclusions of the U.S. intelligence. We perceive anonymous “leaks” as nothing more than an attempt to confuse those who are sincerely trying to get to the bottom of things in this egregious crime. Shift the blame from the statesmen who ordered and coordinated the attacks in the Baltic Sea to some abstract individuals,” Ledenev said.
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said the New York Times story had “instantly got a ‘green light’ in the local information field” and was intended to distract from the facts presented in Hersh’s piece.
“Obviously, those who have masterminded the [Nord Stream] attack want to divert attention. Obviously, this is a coordinated media hoax campaign,” he asserted.
Further, Peskov said the Kremlin is wondering how US officials can suggest anything regarding the ‘terrorist’ attack on Nord Stream without an investigation, while he suggested it is strange and smells of a “monstrous crime”, according to RIA.
Needless to say, the twitterverse mocked the clear distraction:
However, NakedCapitalism’s Yves Smith points out that even though the US has succeeded in burying the Sy Hersh story depicting Biden and his top foreign policy officials as the instigators of the bombing, it’s gotten traction in Germany.
The new claim is that some rather small sailing yacht, which would not even be able to carry the necessary equipment to perform such a deed, was the main instrument in this:
Following joint research by [German main public TV news unit] (ARD’s capital city studio), the ARD political magazine Kontraste, [German public TV] SWR and DIE ZEIT, it was possible to reconstruct to a large extent in the course of the investigation how and when the explosive attack was prepared. According to this, traces lead in the direction of Ukraine. However, investigators have so far found no evidence of who ordered the destruction.
…
Specifically, according to information from [these news sources], investigators have managed to identify the boat that was presumably used for the secret operation. It is said to be a yacht rented from a company based in Poland, apparently owned by two Ukrainians. The clandestine operation at sea is said to have been carried out by a team of six people, according to the investigation. It is said to have involved five men and one woman. According to the report, the group consisted of a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a female doctor, who are said to have transported the explosives to the crime scenes and placed them there. The nationality of the perpetrators is apparently unclear. The assassins used professionally forged passports, which are said to have been used, among other things, to rent the boat.According to the investigation, the commando set sail from Rostock on September 6, 2022. The equipment for the clandestine operation was previously transported to the port in a van, it is said. In the further course, the investigators succeeded in locating the boat the following day again in Wieck (Darß) and later at the Danish island Christiansø, northeast of Bornholm, according to the research. The yacht was subsequently returned to the owner in uncleaned condition. On the table in the cabin, the investigators were able to detect traces of explosives, according to the research. According to information from [the mentioned news sources], a Western intelligence service is said to have sent a tip to European partner services as early as in the fall, i.e. shortly after the destruction, according to which a Ukrainian commando was responsible for the destruction. Thereafter, there have allegedly been further intelligence indications suggesting that a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible.
No. You do not dive down to 80+ meter for an industrial size job, involving the placement of hundreds of pounds of explosives in eight individual charges on very sturdy pipelines, from a sparsely manned sailing boat. Such deep dives require special gases, special breathing equipment, special training, a decompression chamber for emergencies and lots of well trained people to maintain all that stuff.
There is the cynical take that the “blame it on people who like Ukraine” is meant to weaken Ukraine support. That seems unlikely. Pinning blame on mystery operatives with superpowers turns scrutiny as far as possible from government actors, and the big point is to exculpate the US, particularly its top brass. Conveniently, that sort of caper is such a staple of action movies that great swathes of the public have been pre-programmed to believe it.
But the alleged “link” may still blunt Germany sympathy for Ukraine:
But, as Yves Smith notes, before you get your hopes up, until Robert Habeck and Annelina Baerbock get lobotomies, I don’t see German policy changing. They are diehard hawks and still very much in the driver’s seat.
It’s clearly the US hope that this deflection will make the Nord Stream “whodunit” go away.
But Sy Hersh was already promising more stories on this case, and this mini-barrage gives him additional grist. Pass the popcorn.
As Summit News previously highlighted, both China and Hungary have called for a full international investigation into the pipeline attack under the auspices of the United Nations.
end
Very important; Russian claims control over Bakhmut’s east
(zerohedge)
Russians Claim Control Over Bakhmut’s East
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 10:00 AM
According to Reuters, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Wednesday his forces had taken full control of the eastern part of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut as one of the bloodiest battles of the year-long war appears close to ending. If the claim is true, it would mean Russian forces control nearly half the city in their push to secure their first big victory in several months.
The General Staff of the Ukraine’s Armed Forces said in its Wednesday morning report: “The enemy, despite significant losses, … continues to storm the town of Bakhmut.”
Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters, who have been spearheading the Russian campaign to seize Bakhmut, had now captured the city’s east. “Everything east of the Bakhmutka River is completely under the control of Wagner,” Prigozhin said on Telegram.
The river bisects Bakhmut city, which sits on the edge of a swathe of the Donetsk region that is already largely under Russian occupation. The city centre is on the west side of the river.
Wagner leader Prigozhin stands less than a kilometre from the centre of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. 8th of March, 2023.
Still, Ukrainian defenders remained defiant, and after indicating they are ready for “a tactical retreat” from Bakhmut last week, military and political leaders are now speaking of hanging on to positions and inflicting as many casualties as possible on the Russian assault force (and to the Ukraine military and mercenaries as well, of course).
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defence minister said Kyiv urgently needed huge supplies of artillery shells to mount a general counter-offensive against Russia’s invasion army, urging EU members to support an Estonian plan for joint procurement of munitions.
“We need to move forward as soon as possible,” Oleksii Reznikov told reporters before an EU defence ministers’ meeting in Stockholm.
Ukrainian military statements said earlier there may be “conditions” in Bakhmut for a Ukrainian offensive. “The main task of our troops in Bakhmut is to grind the enemy’s fighting capability, to bleed their combat potential,” Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern military command, told public television on Tuesday.
Russia has made progress in recent weeks around Bakhmut, but its winter offensive yielded little gains in assaults further north and south. It says that taking Bakhmut would be a step towards seizing the industrial Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. At the same time, western analysts say Bakhmut has little strategic value (see more here “Why the Stakes Keep Rising In the Battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine“)
Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said in comments on Ukrainian television that Russia’s strategy in east Ukraine remained the same – to take the remaining areas of Donetsk and Luhansk that it does not control.
“As for tactics – they understand that they are not able to make any rapid advance, so they have one tactic – they advance where they can. If they see that there is any success somewhere, they throw all the reserves into it,” he said.
“So far, in the directions of Kreminna, Svatove and Bilohorivka (all northwest of the regional capital Luhansk) they have had no strategic successes and are making no progress.”
The months of warfare in the east have been among the deadliest and most destructive since Russia invaded in February last year, adding Bakhmut’s name to a list of devastated cities such as Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
A Ukrainian military drone showed the scale of destruction in Bakhmut, filming apartment blocks on fire and smoke billowing from residential areas. Iryna Vereshchuk, a deputy Ukrainian premier, said fewer than 4,000 civilians – including 38 children – out of a pre-war population of some 70,000 remained in the city, which is now largely in ruins after months of bombardment.
“The situation in the city is difficult. The enemy actively storms our positions, however they don’t have any success and suffer colossal losses,” a Ukrainian border guard said in a video released by the State Border Service.
“Probably out of spite, they tried to blow up two bridges. But we still receive everything that we need. The city stands, because Bakhmut was, is, and will be Ukraine. We’ll stay in touch.”
The Ukrainian General Staff also said Russian forces made more than 30 unsuccessful attacks over the past day near Orikhovo-Vasylivka alone, 20 km (12 miles) northwest of Bakhmut. They shelled the areas around 10 settlements along the Bakhmut section of the front line, it said.
end
Robert H to us:
This is important as Russia is now taking control of the Ukraine-Russia war/ The data comes from the very reliable
Col .Douglas McGregor.
(courtesy Ria.ru)
The US reported that Zelensky secretly sent a distress signal to Biden FREE NEWS
When you have a clown for a leader and an actor who believes his own bullshit over advice of professional soldiers you get chaos and death. Because poor decisions not only kill people but waste the ability to battle and wage war. The Ukrainian effort to effectively wage war with Russia is ending soon. The spring offensive will result in another loss of at least 10-15,000 dead with another equal amount wounded and unable to return to the future battlefield. While we can safely say no one expects a senile fool to exhibit common sense, the Neocons have a real choice. Double down and send in NATO forces and watch them die risking a nuclear exchange or send the Poles to die to reflect. Whether there is anyone remaining amongst the ship of fools with common sense is a big question mark. But the cold reality is that an exit plan is needed to retreat from this fiasco before more hegemony is lost. As always the Neocon war efforts result in defeat and loss. This time Americans and the rest of the world are paying a price for this foolishness in the way of higher interest rates and a lowered standard of living caused by insane debt spending to fund a war that cannot be won. The notion that American dollars fund everything in Ukraine from pensions, to salaried civil servants to civil equipment to politicians in addition to war armaments without a blowback, is nuts. The Ukraine would not last 2 weeks without such largesse from a ship of fools called a US government. This spending is already sending interest rates higher and will continue to do so. And to say this is proxy war is a understatement; Ukraine as a nation is simply a bought and paid for mercenary to wage war against Russia because Neocons cannot declare war so war occasions with a nation bought as expendable cannon fodder instead. While one might question such stupidity, it seems Ukraine is not alone as today’s proxy wars are simply buying nations as a whole to act as warriors. And it seems nations want to sell themselves for American dollars into extinction. No empire in history has ever succeeded and America will not be an exception. With incompetence on full display and a high handed self absorbed attitude of doctoral foreign policy it is no wonder countries are ignoring America into irrelevance. Countries like China have no reason to hold US debt which is actually why they are dumping debt as fast as they can. Who buys what they dump? This too impacts higher interest rates as confidence in America wanes in being a responsible economy led by common sense. Instead what the world is seeing is a Hegemony of a nation being destroyed by foolishness and hubris. With this waste, goes the entire influence and stance of the West seemingly unable to escape the sinking of the ship of fools. So when Powell at the US Fed speaks of higher interest rates coming down the pike, he is really telling the world that this is price of Neocon foolishness and failure.
Almost all of America’s leaders have gradually pulled back their COVID mandates, requirements, and closures – even in states like California, which had imposed the most stringent and longest-lasting restrictions on the public.
At the same time, the media has been gradually acknowledging the ongoing release of studies that totally refute the purported reasons behind those restrictions.
This overt reversal is falsely portrayed as “learned” or “new evidence.” Little acknowledgement of error is to be found. We have seen no public apology for promulgating false information, or for the vilification and delegitimization of policy experts and medical scientists like myself who spoke out correctly about data, standard knowledge about viral infections and pandemics, and fundamental biology.
The historical record is critical. We have seen a macabre Orwellian attempt to rewrite history and to blame the failure of widespread lockdowns on the lockdowns’ critics, alongside absurd denials of officials’ own incessant demands for them.
In the Trump administration, Dr. Deborah Birx was formally in charge of the medical side of the White House’s coronavirus task force during the pandemic’s first year. In that capacity, she authored all written federal policy recommendations to governors and states and personally advised each state’s public health officials during official visits, often with Vice President Mike Pence, who oversaw the entire task force. Upon the inauguration of President Joe Biden, Dr. Anthony Fauci became chief medical advisor and ran the Biden pandemic response.
We must acknowledge the abject failure of the Birx-Fauci policies.
They were enacted, but they failed to stop the dying, failed to stop the infection from spreading, and inflicted massive damage and destruction particularly on lower-income families and on America’s children.
More than 1 million American deaths have been attributed to that virus. Even after draconian measures, including school closures, stoppage of non-COVID medical care, business shutdowns, personal restrictions, and then the continuation of many restrictions and mandates in the presence of a vaccine, there was an undeniable failure—over two presidential administrations—to stop cases from rapidly escalating.
Numerous experts – including John Ioannidis, David Katz, and myself – called for targeted protection, a safer alternative to widespread lockdowns, in national media beginning in March of 2020. That proposal was rejected. History’s biggest public health policy failure came at the hands of those who recommended the lockdowns and those who implemented them, not those who advised otherwise.
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 09: White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx speaks as (L-R) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia listen during the daily coronavirus briefing in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on April 09, 2020 in Washington, DC. U.S. unemployment claims have approached 17 million over the past three weeks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES
The tragicfailure of reckless, unprecedented lockdowns that were contrary to established pandemic science, and the added massive harms of those policies on children, the elderly, and lower-income families, are indisputable and well-documented in numerousstudies. This was the biggest, the most tragic, and the most unethical breakdown of public health leadership in modern history.
In a democracy, indeed in any ethical and free society, the truth is essential. The American people need to hear the truth—the facts, free from the political distortions, misrepresentations, and censorship. The first step is to clearly state the harsh truth in the starkest possible terms. Lies were told. Those lies harmed the public. Those lies were directly contrary to the evidence, to decades of knowledge on viral pandemics, and to long-established fundamental biology.
Here are the 10 biggest falsehoods – known for years to be false, not recently learned or proven to be so—promoted by America’s public health leaders, elected and unelected officials, and now-discredited academics:
1. SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has a far higher fatality rate than the flu by several orders of magnitude.
2. Everyone is at significant risk to die from this virus.
3. No one has any immunological protection, because this virus is completely new.
4. Asymptomatic people are major drivers of the spread.
5. Locking down—closing schools and businesses, confining people to their homes, stopping non-COVID medical care, and eliminating travel—will stop or eliminate the virus.
6. Masks will protect everyone and stop the spread.
7. The virus is known to be naturally occurring, and claiming it originated in a lab is a conspiracy theory.
8. Teachers are at especially high risk.
9. COVID vaccines stop the spread of the infection.
10. Immune protection only comes from a vaccine.
None of us are so naïve as to expect a direct apology from critics at my employer, Stanford University, or in government, academic public health, and the media. But to ensure that this never happens again, government leaders, power-driven officials, and influential academics and advisors often harboring conflicts of interest must be held accountable. Personally, I remain highly skeptical that any government investigation or commission can avoid politicization. Regardless of their intention, all such government-run inquiries will at least be perceived as politically motivated and their conclusions will be rejected outright by many.
Those investigations must proceed, though, if only to seek the truth, to teach our children that truth matters, and to remember G.K. Chesterton’s critical lesson that “Right is right, even if nobody does it. Wrong is wrong, even if everybody is wrong about it.”
* * *
Scott W. Atlas, MD is the Robert Wesson Senior Fellow in health policy at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, Co-Director of the Global Liberty Institute, Founding Fellow of Hillsdale’s Academy for Science & Freedom, and author of A Plague Upon Our House: My Fight at the Trump White House to Stop COVID from Destroying America (Bombardier Press, 2022).
END
This is interesting…..
(Stieber)
New WHO Chief Scientist Made Crucial Change To Paper Claiming COVID-19 Didn’t Come From Lab
Jeremy Farrar, the chief scientist, was credited in one message with helping guide the paper about the origin of COVID-19, according to one email released by the U.S. House select subcommittee on the coronavirus pandemic on March 5.
“Thanks for shepherding this paper. Rumors of bioweaponeering are now circulating in China,” Dr. Ian Lipkin, a Columbia University professor, wrote to Farrar in the message.
“Yes I know and in US – why so keen to get out ASAP. I will push nature,” Farrar responded.
In the early 2020 paper, Lipkin and four co-authors claimed: “It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.”
SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.
A draft of the manuscript, published by Nature, included a different word, the House panel found.
“Sorry to micro-manage/microedit! But would you be willing to change one sentence?” Farrar wrote to Kristian Andersen, who co-authored the paper, in an email just one day before publication.
Farrar asked to insert “improbable” in place of “unlikely,” the email showed.
“Sure,” Andersen responded.
The paper also stated that “SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct” and that the authors “do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.”
“This evidence suggests that Dr. Farrar was more involved in the drafting and publication of Proximal Origin than previously known and possibly should have been credited or acknowledged for this involvement,” the panel said.
Asked for a comment from Farrar, the World Health Organization (WHO) told The Epoch Times via email he hasn’t yet started in his new position.
The British scientist was, at the time of the messages, at the helm of the Wellcome Trust, which controls millions of dollars in funding for research in the UK.
The WHO announced on Dec. 13, 2022, that Farrar would be the next new chief scientist and that he would start in the second quarter of 2023. Wellcome, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, has stated that Farrar was due to leave in 2023.Dr. Anthony Fauci in Washington on Dec. 9, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
Secret Teleconference
Farrar helped arrange a secretFeb. 1, 2020, teleconference with Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to discuss the origin of COVID-19, previously released emails show.
Some of the participants said details of SARS-CoV-2 indicated it didn’t originate from nature, though others favored the natural origin theory.
Doctor mortality (younger ones) in Canada is increasing and massive TURBO cancers, aggressive unusual cancers out of the blue, very rare & very aggressive; spike protein is the CULTPRIT!
Watch now (10 min) | This is a 10-minute video clip from my recent interview on “Shots Fired” with DeAnna Lorraine on the Stew Peters Network. FULL INTERVIEW available here: We discuss why rapid (turbo) cancers are rising in young COVID-19 mRNA vaccinated individuals, what may be causing them, and why we are seeing a rise in all sorts of neurological injuries (blindness, hear…
‘Discuss why rapid (turbo) cancers are rising in young COVID-19 mRNA vaccinated individuals, what may be causing them, and why we are seeing a rise in all sorts of neurological injuries (blindness, hearing problems, tinnitus, paralysis, movement disorders, seizures, brain fog, migraines) and mental health issues after COVID-19 vaccination, including family members reporting changes in behavior in their COVID-19 vaccinated loved ones, erratic driving, increase in anger and other unusual behaviors.’
Discuss a 53% rise in Canadian physician mortality in 2022 compared to 2019, a 900% increase in the deaths of young Canadian doctors under age 30 and an increase in rapid (turbo) cancers among young 4x or 5x-vaccinated doctors that claim their lives in less than a year.’
a military program? is this why Fauci has been ‘UNTOUCHABLE’? was mRNA technology (and LNP) really a bioweapons program repurposed for COVID or rolled out as a bioweapon?
I think I (we are) am over the target, there is some aspects we do not know but we are flying deep into enemy territory, we are close; this is why questions must be asked and answered; this is shaping up to be a pure bioweapon injection and the system was built to carry payloads of toxins, poisons etc. Is mRNA technology really a poison? a toxin? who can answer this for us?
Energy (food) in must = energy out if weight is to be controlled moreover, its about cardiovascular health, not weight so much; More Than Half of the World Will Be Overweight or Obese by 2035 – Report
So much metabolic disorder now. It is very serious.
All those weight watchers, Jenny Craig diets are designed to fail and they know it, it will always fail, you must have physical activity in your life, daily. Do not diet, no restriction of food, just normal meals. Moderation and commonsense. When you diet, you disturb your basal metabolism and downregulate it. It resets to the new basal metabolism and then when you end the diet and resume normal food intake, you then put back on the weight. You body will store anything you take in as energy if you diet. Always its about moderation and commonsense. Energy in = energy out.
More countries are reporting a rise in excess mortality – just how bad is it?
The funeral service is booming. While we may not be able to trust the official numbers put out by our authorities – we look to other sources to verify our information. One example is Service Corporation International.
Service Corporation International or SCI is the largest provider of ‘deathcare’ products and services in North America. Their fourth-quarter results are out and business is booming, so good in fact, it exceeded expectations, again. Generating $826 million for the full year 2022. A 26% increase over 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
People are not dying from COVID-19 anymore
SCI had its best year ever in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19. At the end of 2021 SCI CEO Thomas Ryan said he was expecting revenue to drop in 2022. SCI predicted business would go back to normal. Was he assuming the vaccines were working?
Whatever the case is – it didn’t happen.
2022 ended up “significantly exceeding” their expectations. While COVID-19 deaths made some impact on their earnings the big increase came from a “higher number of other excess deaths.” Full quote from their Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results and 2023 Guidance:
We are proud to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 for the fourth quarter of 2022. These results were below the prior year quarter that was materially impacted by the effects of COVID-19. However, they significantly exceeded our expectations as we continue to experience some impact from COVID-19 as well as a higher number of other excess deaths.
What is to blame?
No mRNA vaccines were mentioned for the cause of excess deaths – of course. But he did mention “heart disease and diabetes among other causes.”
“Ripple effects” on health from the pandemic lockdown were the also reasons mentioned for the excess deaths.
Excess deaths are not an exclusive problem for the United States – many countries in the world are experiencing this spike – Does anyone know what these countries have in common?
Second thought – If the booster uptake is low – shouldn’t the excess deaths be returning to normal levels?
Third – Why is the media silent – they went crazy for a virus with a 99.9997% survival rate – but excess deaths explode and crickets…
end
VACCINE IMPACT//
Big Tech Crash Accelerating in 2023 – Billions Lost on AI, Bank Failures, CHAOS!
March 7, 2023 7:10 pm
The Big Tech Crash of 2022-2023 is accelerating here in 2023, and yet almost nobody is sounding the alarm as to just how significant the crash is going to affect everyone’s lives. Instead, we are pummeled every day with reports in both the corporate and alternative media about how the technology is advancing, and that AI is poised to take over the world and replace humans. Nothing could be further from the truth. While it is easy to collate the news and come to this very simple conclusion, that Big Tech is crashing, I have yet to see one other journalist refer to what we are now seeing as a “Big Tech Crash” which is very rapidly making the Dot.com technology crash of 2001 look like a walk in the park by comparison. According to Layoffs.fyi, there have now been 125,977 layoffs in Big Tech for the first two months of 2023. There were 161,411 layoffs in Big Tech in all of 2022. As we complete just the 1st week of March, 2023, things are only getting worse, much worse.
Yesterday’s Daily, Grauniad-style, mixed up the linear order of Mel Brooks’s ‘The History of the World Part I and II’. However, its core arguments that: (1) inflation is more complicated than “it’s demand!”, which it clearly isn’t, or “it’s supply!”, which it also clearly isn’t; and (2) that US firms are collectively raising prices because they can, and then workers are trying to match via higher wages, gets things in the right order. Linking that argument and typos, while Bloomberg covers yesterday’s hawkish semi-annual testimony as ‘Bond Traders Fear Powell Willing to Break the Economy’, I would say the key message was actually, “If it ain’t Bork-en, don’t fix it.”
Bloomberg was talking about further repricing of Fed Funds futures higher and the US yield curve flatter that followed Powell (indirectly) flagging that not only could Fed funds indeed hit 6% this year, but that a step back up to a 50bps move again is a real possibility in March. ‘Who knew?’, says the guy mocking disinflation and pivot calls since the start of the year. And as our also never-timorous Fed watcher Philip Marey argues in ‘Be prepared’, this Friday’s payrolls report and then Tuesday’s CPI print will determine whether we get a 25bps or 50bps hike at the March 21-22 FOMC meeting. Moreover, he adds:
“For those who are getting fear of heights, we would like to point out that a 6.0% federal funds rate may seem high, but when core CPI inflation stands at 5.6%, it is only barely positive in real terms. In fact, the current real federal funds rate is still negative. More importantly, if we look at interest rates that are relevant to aggregate demand, a 10-year US treasury yield of close to 4% is still a negative rate in real terms. So what is all this talk of a restrictive monetary policy stance?
And who is still afraid of heights? In fact, if longer term interest rates remain too low to slow down the economy and squeeze inflation out of the system, the federal funds rate may even have to go higher than most of us can currently imagine. A federal funds rate of 7 or 8% may seem incredible right now, but how long ago was it that 6% seemed impossible?”
My “Bork-en” comment refers to the legacy of US jurist Robert Bork, who believed bigger was always better in firms for consumers, and who set the tone for a generation or more of neoliberal refusal to act on US anti-trust ‘because lower prices’. His argument always made as much sense to me as the Swedish Chef –“We poot de oligooopoly in de pooot… we get de leew inflootion in de poot… bork, bork, bork!”– but I wasn’t setting US regulatory policy, just watching The Muppets. Now we have such concentrated corporate power that large firms can collectively raise prices when supply shocks give them cover, and are able pay higher nominal wages too. So, roughly, +10% on commodities > +10% on shelf prices > +7% on wages = +10% in nominal sales growth with a little consumer credit…. and let the economists and central banks worry about the ‘real’ problem.
Bloomberg says markets fear Powell will see the economy broken, and indeed oil, stocks, short-dated Treasuries (2-year yields hitting 5% for the first time since 2007), and non-dollar FX plunged as he spoke, so he hit all his ducks except the US long end (for now). Yet what stocks should fear is things being fixed so they aren’t Bork-en, which involves smashing corporate concentration like crypto was. The oligooopoly argument means there isn’t any other choice if you want to bring inflation down and keep it down. Otherwise, firms can continue to collectively raise prices every time supply shocks give them cover – and such supply shocks are here to stay.
Breaking up corporate concentration is not a process monetary policy can drive, even via a deep V-shaped recession: such a downturn could even increase corporate power as smaller firms go under. What is needed is a grinding process of antitrust de- and re-regulation. Yet from the Fed’s perspective, it still implies very high rates for a very long time: the latter still seems to be confusing markets, who have only just woken up to the former.
Of course, some see supply shocks are over, which would help central banker: but I disagree. For example, the RBA tried to please mortgage holders yesterday by dovishly hiking 25bps to 3.60% and saying “inflation had peaked”. As flagged ahead of time, such a ‘pivot’ already looks silly given what Powell just said: yet Governor Lowe followed it up with a speech today saying he is close to a pause and won’t follow the US lead. A$ is responding as one would expect, now down at 0.6588 (and heading to its recent low of 0.6199?), helping to push imported inflation up.
The concentrated power of mortgages was underlined by the Sydney Morning Herald’s and The Age’s shocking early Tuesday front pages –“Red Alert: War Risk Exposed” and “Australia ‘must prepare’ for threat of China war”, which former Aussie PM Keating attacked as “the most egregious and provocative news presentation of any newspaper I have witnessed in over fifty years of active public life.”– both switching to cover the extra 25bps on monthly bills, or rents, ‘because landlords can’. Indeed, The Age flipped to noting “Lowe to meet mental health body as home-owner stress rises” But that five national security experts claim Australia could find itself at war with China within three years, is totally unprepared for it, and is being misled about this fact by its leaders, suggests supply-side inflation, and demand-side to Das Boot, will linger longer than Lowe will admit.
So does the fact that concentrated corporate power is one of the key reasons another report says the US is not fit for a Great Power struggle; and that just as China’s new foreign minister yesterday warned the US and China could face “confrontation and conflict” if the White House does not change course away from “all round suppression and containment.” Leland Miller of @ChinaBeigeBook yesterday went so far as to state on CNBC that policymakers and businesses need to take the tail risk of a “catastrophic” confrontation over Taiwan seriously, that contingency measures need to be taken urgently, and “if you don’t have a Plan B right now, you are off on a ledge, and on a dangerous ledge.”
On which, China –where imports continue to fall and the trade surplus climb– just unleashed its largest regulatory revamp in decades, as the press puts it: but they called Common Prosperity “regulatory reform”. There will be a new agency to police all data; a new financial regulator separate from the PBOC for most assets; and a far greater focus on self-reliance in science and technology, with 5% of positions in central government departments to be cut(!) to allow reallocation to focus on strategically important areas. Consider the enormity of that and tell me things are going back to the new normal. Yes, separately China is flagging support for private businesses – if they are “healthy and high quality”; as decided by the CCP, against a background of whole-of-economy resistance to US economic encirclement.
Just because the Fed doesn’t talk about all of this, doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter for the US economy and the FOMC: obviously it does. And it doesn’t argue for lower rates or sustained lower inflation ahead, even if the economy slumps, because our global system is both broken and Bork-en. I wish somebody could fix it.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0545 DOWN .0004
USA/ YEN 137.26 down 0.128/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.1840 UP 0.0013
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3747 DOWN .0003 (CDN DOLLAR UP 3 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.85 PTS OR 0/06%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 483.23 PTS OR 2.35%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .78% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 483.23 PTS OR 2.35%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.85 PTS OR 0.06%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.78%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 135.03 PTS OR 0.48%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1814.40
silver:$20.12
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.62 UP 3 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.9515)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9632
TURKISH LIRA: 18.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.498…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3,952% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.857 DOWN 3 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 5.0553 UP 4 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 105.63 UP 3 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 10.44 PTS OR 0.13%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 72.34 POINTS OR 0.46%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 14.51PTS OR 0.20%
Spain IBEX UP 55.00 POINTS OR 0.58%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 149.95PTS OR 0.54/%
WTI Oil price 76.50 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.33 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 76.03/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.645
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.7960 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0546 DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1844 UP .0018 or 18 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8195% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137.29 DOWN 0.094////YEN UP 9 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3796 UP .0045 (CDN dollar, DOWN 45 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.78
Brent OIL: 82.49
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 3.983%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 3.884%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 5.0659%
USA dollar index: 105.63 UP 1 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.95
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.03 DOWN 0 AND 0/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 58.06 PTS OR 0.18%
NASDAQ 100 UP 63.16 PTS OR 0.52%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.05 DOWN .54 PTS (2.76)%
GLD: $168.62 DOWN 0.06 OR 0.036%
SLV/ $18.40 DOWN 0,05 OR 0.27%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Good News Is Bad News Again: Jobs Data Jolts Markets, Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Good news was definitely bad news for markets today as ADP and JOLTS data both beat expectations, sending rate-hike expectations soaring to new cycle highs at 5.70%…
Source: Bloomberg
In fact, the market is now pricing in 70%-plus odds of a 50bps hike in March (and 40% odds of 50bps in May)…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which piled up on the back of equity traders, pushing all the majors into the red, led by The Dow and Small Caps. A panic-bid MOC program hit with 20 mins to go lifting everything, and pushing Nasdaq and S&P green. Dow underwhelmed, closing red…
“Most Shorted” stocks fell for the 3rd straight day…
Source: Bloomberg
0DTE traders did their best to hold the S&P above the 50DMA (every dip below it saw positive delta flows), but around 1245ET they gave up and started selling…
However, with about 20 mins to go, a wave of 0DTE positive delta flows ripped the S&P back up to its 50DMA (before reaching neutral positioning and reversing)
But, while the S&P 500 did briefly get back above its 50DMA, it couldn’t hold it…
Bond market volatility expectations continue to soar while equity vol expectations remain subdued…
Source: Bloomberg
But in the short-term, equity vol is notably elevated ahead of this week’s payrolls data and next week’s CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
On a side note, VIX calls (implicitly a bearish position, expecting higher volatility) have soared relative to VIX puts (but we do note that this level is perhaps just post-Fed normalization after the COVID chaos)…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields were higher across the curve today, with the short-end underperforming, but the market saw a massive swing intraday after overnight strength evaporated into US-session selling. By the close, the long-end was basically unchanged while 2Y was up 6bps…
Source: Bloomberg
An ugly 10Y auction did not help as yields surged back from overnight lows after the strong labor market data. But the 10Y did not get back up to 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s10s) continued to invert even deeper, hitting -111bps at its lows today…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day practically unchanged after overnight gains gavce way into the US open before boucing back…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended very modestly higher after a late day jump lifted it back off $22,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil Prices chopped around all day but ended lower after a crude draw with $77 WTI an apparent pivot…
Gold ended the day unchanged, giving back all of the early US session gains…
Finally, today’s WTF Chart Of The Day. While ‘soft’ survey data and ‘hard’ industrial data has been notably disappointing since the start of the year, US labor market data has shown no signs of weakness at all…
Source: Bloomberg
Just how much longer can the Biden administration keep this depression alive with its fake jobs numbers?
i b)EARLY MORNING TRADING//
Futures Briefly Jump Above 4,000 After Powell Clarifies “No Decision” Has Been Made On Speeding Pace Of Rate Hikes
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 10:54 AM
While the 2nd day of the Fed chair’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony – the one before the House Financial Services committee – is traditionally widely ignored as there is nothing new in the prepared remarks, while the House questions are even dumber than those in the Senate (after all Maxine Waters is asking some of them), that was not the case today: the reason – Jerome Powell stressed that policymakers had not yet made up their minds on the size of their interest-rate increase later this month and said it would hinge on incoming data on jobs and inflation.
While the Fed chief repeated his prepared remarks from Tuesday that the US central bank is likely to take rates higher than previously anticipated and that it could move at a faster pace if economic data keeps coming in hot, on Wednesday he diverged slightly from his prepared remarks to qualify the statement by adding that “no decision” had been made.
“If — and I stress that no decision has been made on this — but if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we’d be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” he said.
The bolded text was not present in his original comments.
The moment Powell’s WSJ mouthpiece Timiraos underscored what the Fed chair said at 10:24am eminis spiked to session highs rising briefly above 4,000, erasing their post-JOLTS drop.
And just to make sure the he was hear loud and clear he told the House Financial Services committee that “we have not made any decision about the March meeting.”
Still, it’s hardly an all clear from Powell, who added that not only would the Fed keep an eye on the JOLTS report – which as noted earlier again came in hotter than expected, for the 27 of the past 29 months, but also said he would be keeping an eye on Friday’s payrolls report and next week’s CPI/PPI: “They’re going to be important in our assessment” the Fed chair said, adding that “we’ll be carefully analyzing them”…
… clarifying that “we have not made any decision about the March meeting” as the Fed is “not on a preset path.”
end
end
II) USA DATA
The usually bullish ADP reports wage growth slowing but it did show job gains
(zerohedge)
ADP Reports Wage Growth Slowing Despite Job Gains
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 08:24 AM
After tumbling last month to its lowest in two years (blamed on weather), ADP’s employment report was expected to show a rebound in Feb, adding 200k jobs. The actual print was even higher at +242k (with January’s revised up to +119k).
Source: Bloomberg
Large companies dominated the beat…
Business Services and Construction sectors saw job losses…
ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson said of the January weakness, “we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week.”
Richardson’s comments for February:
“There is a tradeoff in the labor market right now. We’re seeing robust hiring, which is good for the economy and workers, but pay growth remains quite elevated. The modest slowdown in pay increases, on its own, is unlikely to drive down inflation rapidly in the near-term.”
However, pay growth for job stayers slowed to 7.2 percent in February, the slowest pace of gains in 12 months. Pay growth decelerated for job changers, too, falling to 14.3 percent from 14.9 percent.
As a reminder, ADP has dramatically under-forecast BLS ‘official’ job gains for months…
Source: Bloomberg
Equity bulls better start hoping for a big ugly print in payrolls soon or The Fed’s hawkish dreams may come true sooner rather than later. All eyes now turn to JOLTS data (and the potential for a big miss).
END
This number is generally fictitious: however they reported strong job openings which beat expectations. However there was a huge plunge in the number of quits
(zerohedge)
Stubbornly Strong Job Openings Beat Expectations Despite Plunging Number Of Quits
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 10:29 AM
So much for Goldman’s expectation – not to mention every 3rd tracking service – that today’s JOLTS report would finally tumble and reflect the reality observed by services such as Indeed and Opportunity Insights, both of which have seen a sharp drop in job openings.
Moments ago the DOL reported that in January (as a reminder JOLTS is always one month delayed vs payrolls), the US had 10.824 million job openings, which while a 410K drop from an upwardly revised 11.234MM in December (vs the 11.0MM pre-revision print), was not only well below the consensus estimate of 11.546MM but the drop was tiny compared to Goldman’s expectation for an 800K drop in the number of job openings.
This was the fifth consecutive beat of expectations in the series, and an unprecedented 27 of the past 29 prints (!), just another garden variety ten-sigma event by the “never political” BLS.
According to the BLS, in December, the largest decreases in job openings were in construction (-240,000), accommodation and food services (-204,000), and finance and insurance (-100,000). The number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+94,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (+50,000)
The modest drop surge in job openings means that there are now 5.13 million more jobs than unemployed workers, which is not that far off from the all time high of 6.055 million in March 2022.
Said otherwise, there were 1.90 job openings for every unemployed worker, down from a near record 1.96 last month. Needless to say, this number has a ways to drop to revert to its precovid levels around around 1.20…
One place where the labor market appeared to be showing modest weakness was in the number of quits, traditionally seen as a “take this job and shove it” indicator as it reflects confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere: in january, the number of quits tumbled by 207K – the biggest drop since May 2021 – to 3.884MM, the lowest level since June 2021.
So what to make of this ‘data’ which as not only UBS, but also the NFIB…
The answer is simple: well over half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate has tumbled to a record low 31%
In other words, more than two thirds, or 70% of the final number of job openings, is estimated!
And at a time when it is critical for Biden to maintain the illusion that the labor market remains strong when everything else in Biden’s economy is on the verge of recession, we’ll let readers decide if the admin’s Labor Department is plugging the estimate gap with numbers that are stronger or weaker.
As for the Fed, the number was clearly hot (i.e., “labor market remains strong, thank the president), and the only dovish twist was the big drop in quits, although as Bloomberg notes, “that’s a pretty slender thread on which to hang a “dovish Fed” narrative,” and the market’s view shouldn’t really change much at all ahead of the big payroll and CPI reports, which will likely determine the Fed’s decision in two weeks.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
It will not work: Biden pitches a tax hike on high earners to solver the huge Medicare shortfall funding crisis. Once government gets into the pricing of pharmaceuticals, pharmacies income will go down and many will go out of business
(zerohedge)
Biden Pitches Tax Hike On High-Earners To Solve Medicare Funding Crisis
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 07:45 AM
President Joe Biden on Tuesday proposed raising taxes on Americans earning over $400,000 per year, and granting the government new power to negotiate prescription drug prices as part of an attempt to keep Medicare afloat for the next two decades.
“The budget I am releasing this week will make the Medicare trust fund solvent beyond 2050 without cutting a penny in benefits,” Biden(‘s team) said in a Tuesday op-ed in the NY Times shortly before the announcement. “In fact, we can get better value, making sure Americans receive better care for the money they pay into Medicare.”
“If the MAGA Republicans get their way, seniors will pay higher out-of-pocket costs on prescription drugs and insulin, the deficit will be bigger, and Medicare will be weaker,” the statement continues.
Biden’s budget, set for release on Thursday, proposes raising Medicare taxes from 3.8% to 5% for those making above $400,000, and would eliminate a loophole used by business owners and high-earners to avoid additional taxes, according to a White House fact sheet.
In fact, it’s the same loophole the Bidens used to dodge as much as $500,000 in taxes..
In addition to the higher Medicare tax rate on income above $400,000, Biden’s plan would eliminate a loophole that allows certain business owners who receive income through an S corporation, limited liability company, or limited partnership to avoid paying Medicare taxes on some of their income.
The plan would also dedicate the proceeds from a tax created as part of Obamacare — known as the net investment income tax — to the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund. While doing so would not impact the overall federal deficit, since it amounts to diverting an existing revenue stream, the proposal does allow the administration to say it is extending the program’s solvency. -Bloomberg Law
“The Budget’s expansion of Medicare drug negotiations will not only save money for the federal government — it will also cut beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket costs by billions of dollars,” the plan states.
That said, as the Washington Post notes, “The administration is introducing the measures as part of the White House’s broader 2024 budget proposal, but it faces an unlikely path to passage through a Republican-controlled House of Representatives.“
Republicans are sure to rule out all of the new proposed taxes in the administration’s plan, and some budget hawks are adamant that the White House should be pushing spending cuts as well. Biden’s plan is also likely to elicit further rebuke from the pharmaceutical industry, which has alleged restrictions on federal spending discourage research and innovation in groundbreaking medicine. -WaPo
According to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the GOP isn’t targeting Medicare or Social Security – while conservatives have long said that raising the net investment income tax to fund Medicare is a bad idea.
Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says that a better approach would be to raise what workers pay into the Medicare trust fund from dedicated payroll taxes, vs. relying on investment income which can fluctuate greatly depending on the year.
Currently workers pay 6.2% into Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare, while employers pay the same amounts.
“It can distort savings and investment decisions, which a payroll tax does not do,” said Pomerleau. “And capital gains can be a somewhat unreliable tax base.”
According to the most recent estimate from the Medicare trustees, the program’s “Part A” – which includes reimbursements for hospital care, will be insolvent by 2028, while the Congressional Budget Office said that would occur in 2030.
END
Student loan lender SoFi sues the Biden administration to end the pause extension
(zerohedge)
Student Loan Lender SoFi Sues Biden Admin To End Payment Pause Extension
A major banking institution and federal student loan refinancing company has called on a federal court to end the Biden administration’s pause on student loan payments, arguing that the moratorium has no legal basis.
San Francisco-based SoFi Bank and SoFi Lending Corp.—a student loan refinancing company—sued the Department of Education (DOE) on Friday, according to a complaint (pdf) filed in the District Court for the District of Columbia.
That complaint asked that President Joe Biden’s latest extension of the student-loan payment pause be deemed “invalidated and set aside” or, at a minimum, that the DOE be ordered to require repayment by borrowers who are not eligible for student-debt cancellation.
It also asked that the court issue a permanent injunction preventing the administration from “enforcing, applying, or implementing the eighth extension of the loan moratorium.”
Biden announced in November that his administration would extend its moratorium on student loan repayments, interest, and collections through June 30, 2023, marking the eighth extension.
In its filing with the court, SoFi Bank argued that the moratorium has no legal basis and has cost the bank, along with its refinancing business, millions of dollars in profits.
Specifically, SoFi Bank and SoFi Lending Corp. said the pause violates the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) because the department failed to follow notice-and-comment procedures, through which the administration should have first sought the public’s input or comment on the program.
Headquarters of the American online personal finance company SoFi Technologies Inc. in San Francisco in June 2021. (Google Maps/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)
SoFi Says Loan Refinancing Business Declining
Additionally, they argued that Biden does not have the authority to continue extending the moratorium under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students (HEROES) Act of 2003 because it provides “limited authority to relieve transitory burdens for federal student borrowers who are temporarily unable to make payments on their loans due to active military service or national emergencies.”
The HEROES act allows the DOE to grant waivers or relief to recipients of student financial aid programs under Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 in connection with a war or other military operation or national emergency.
“But the eighth extension applies to all federal borrowers in the country, not just those suffering hardship as a result of the current phase of the pandemic,” the SoFi complaint says.
“Indeed, the eighth extension does not even attempt to redress harm from the pandemic at all, but rather to alleviate ‘uncertainty’ caused by the debt-cancellation litigation—a justification that the Act does not recognize or allow.”
SoFi claimed that the loan moratorium has caused its federal student loan refinancing business to “decline dramatically” by approximately $9 million to $11 million in total revenues and $6 million to $8 million in profits since the eighth extension went into effect.
SoFi expects to lose $40 million to $45 million in total revenues and approximately $25 million to $30 million in total profits if the latest extension remains in effect through August, the company said.
House Republicans will use its spending power to restrict funding to the FBI, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), head of the lower chamber’s Judiciary Committee and its weaponization subcommittee, said on Sunday.
Jordan said on Fox New’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that Republicans in the lower chamber will use its “power of the purse,” or spending power designated to it by the Constitution, to restrict federal funding sent to the FBI, as the weaponization subcommittee progresses further in investigations into FBI conduct.
“We’re going to look to propose legislation, and in the end, the real power of Congress, the real power of the legislative branch, is the power of the purse,” Jordan told host Maria Bartiromo.
“And we’re going to have to use that both on this issue where we think the government’s been targeting the very people it’s supposed to serve. But also, frankly, on the border—I think we’re going to have to look at ways to use the appropriation process to deal with the border situation.”
‘Egregious Behavior’
Driving the Republican lawmaker’s proposed move is a long list of what Jordan describes as “egregious behavior” by the FBI.
A recent example was revealed when FBI Special Agent Garret O’Boyle told lawmakers that the FBI created “threat tags” to target pro-life protesters, the lawmaker said, citing Boyle’s interview with Fox published on March 2, 2023. Before using the tags to track pro-lifers, the FBI used the threat tags to track potential threats to the Supreme Court following the court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Boyle told Fox.
“A tag is merely a statistical tool to track information for review and reporting,” the FBI said in a statement to Fox.
“The creation of a threat tag in no way changes the long-standing requirements for opening an investigation, nor does it represent a shift in how the FBI prioritizes threats.”
A seal reading “Department of Justice Federal Bureau of Investigation” is displayed on the J. Edgar Hoover FBI building in Washington on Aug. 9, 2022. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
Other allegations Jordan touched on in the Sunday interview include the FBI’s involvement in alleged political censorship on social media, the agency’s lack of transparency with intelligence on COVID-19 origins, alleged targeting of parents protesting at school boards and traditional Catholics, and suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal, which Jordan characterized as election interference.
As a response to these allegations, the Judiciary Committee is laying the groundwork and collecting relevant information before eventually approaching the compulsory subpoena process targeting the FBI, the lawmaker said. He added that the legislative branch could prohibit the FBI from using federal funding for certain purposes.
“[We can] say, this funding can’t be used for X, this funding can’t be used for Y, or limit the funding overall,” Jordan said. “Those are things you have to do, or you don’t have the leverage to change, again, this egregious behavior we’re seeing from these agents.”
FBI Whistleblowers
Jordan said the committee has spoken to three FBI whistleblowers who are willing to go public with their interviews and a couple of dozen others who choose to remain anonymous.
Currently, the Judiciary Committee is seeking to speak with 16 FBI employees for “transcribed interviews,” to inform potential legislative reforms to the FBI’s operations and activities, according to a March 3 letter Jordan sent to FBI Director Christopher Wray. The letter was first reported by Breitbart News.
The Epoch Times has contacted Jordan’s office for comment.
The J. Edgar Hoover FBI Building in Washington on July 21, 2022. (Chung I Ho/The Epoch Times)
Agency Response
In response to a press inquiry from The Epoch Times on Jordan’s claims, a spokesperson from the FBI said the agency does not “conduct investigations based on a person’s views.”
“The men and women of the FBI devote themselves to protecting the American people from terrorism, violent crime, cyber threats, and other dangers,” the FBI spokesperson said.
“We focus on violence, threats of violence, and other illegal activity regardless of the underlying motivation or what side of an issue a person is on. We do not conduct investigations based on a person’s views. While outside opinions and criticism often come with the job, we will continue to follow the facts wherever they lead, do things by the book, and speak through our work,” the spokesperson added.
end
This is good: Republican senators request all records behind the COVID origins report by the USA intelligence chief (Avril Haines)
(zerohedge)
Republican Senators Request All Records Behind Intel Chief’s COVID Origins Report
In a March 6 letter (pdf), the senators—led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Md.)—asked that Haines provide the “memoranda; emails; interim and final assessments provided by each IC [intelligence community]; and any other information” that her office considered in developing its assessment by March 20.
Other senators who signed their names to the letter include Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).
“Congress should be able to review the independent evaluations without filters, ambiguity or interpretations of the intelligence,” the lawmakers wrote. “There is clear bipartisan support in Congress to make these assessments available immediately in full as evident by the unanimous March 1, 2023 Senate passage of the COVID-19 Origin Act to declassify information related to the origin of COVID-19.”
Yet the White House asserted on Feb. 28 that there is “no consensus” in the U.S. government on the origins of the pandemic, echoing the inconclusive messaging of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) previous assessment (pdf).
Biden To Propose 5.2% Raise For Federal Employees; Republicans, Unions Slam
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 11:25 AM
One day after President Biden proposed raising taxes on high-earning Americans to keep Medicare afloat, the Washington Post reports that Biden is now expected to float a 5.2 percent pay raise for federal employees, the largest salary boost since Jimmy Carter was president.
The raise, which would apply to 2.1 million workers, would go into effect in January as part of Biden’s fiscal year budget that starts Oct. 1, according to an anonymous senior federal official. It would be the largest since Jimmy Carter’s 9.1 percent increase in 1980, but would still fall short of the 8.7 percent raise called for by Congressional Democrats and federal employee unions.
Republicans slam
“President Biden is continuing to ensure that federal workers’ pay and benefits are insulated from the price-tag of inflation, but it will be paid for by American taxpayers who continue to be harmed by the Biden Administration’s inflationary policies,” said House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) in a statement.
“We should be putting American taxpayers first, not the federal bureaucracy.”
Unions want more
The federal government’s largest unions say Biden’s proposal falls short, and say their members should receive an even larger increase.
“While we recognize the significance of this pay raise, more must be done to keep up with inflation and to begin to make serious progress in closing the double-digit pay gap between federal employees and their private sector counterparts,” said Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees which represents 750,000 federal and D.C. employees.
Kelley says Congress should pass legislation for an 8.7 percent raise.
National Treasury Employees Union president Tony Reardon called the proposal a “solid first step” in the upcoming budget debate on Capitol Hill over the debt ceiling, but that the 8.7% increase would track the 2023 cost-of-living increases received by Social Security recipients.
“We believe rising costs and previous years of inadequate pay increases warrant the average 8.7 percent adjustment called for in the FAIR Act,” said Reardon, referring to the Federal Adjustment of Income Rates Act.
Biden’s recommendation for the notably largepay boost underscores his administration’s tight partnership with federal employee unions, who can bargain over working conditions but not wages, which are set by Congress. The unions have enjoyed significant clout in his administration, in contrast with the Trump administration, which often clashed with civil servants and their representatives. -WaPo
On Tuesday we noted that Biden proposed raising taxes on Americans earning more than $400,000 per year as he seeks to shore up entitlement programs and address budget deficits.
Biden’s budget, set for release on Thursday, proposes raising Medicare taxes from 3.8% to 5% for those making above $400,000, and would eliminate a loophole used by business owners and high-earners to avoid additional taxes, according to a White House fact sheet.
Slashing deficits
Biden is also expected to propose specific measures to reduce the deficit by at least $2 trillion over a decade, Bloomberg reports.
Republicans are certain to seize on whatever his budget proposes as deficit spending in the coming 2024 fiscal year to accuse the White House of gimmickry. Senator Chuck Grassley, the top budget committee Republican, said before the release that the president should propose to cut 2024 spending to 2020 levels plus inflation.
Republicans say they will seek at least $150 billion in fiscal 2024 reductions, with the ultimate goal of eliminating budget deficits over 10 years — all without touching Social Security or Medicare. The Biden budget increases pressure for Republicans to detail their plans, and spell out what government services they would slash. -Bloomberg
According to the Biden team, their plan will protect Social Security – which, without intervention, is predicted to be insolvent by 2033 per the latest official estimate.
And of course, Biden’s budget is not expected to outline the next tranche of assistance to Ukraine.
This is not good for the USA economy as many see mass extinction for startups in 2023.
(zerohedge)
VC Funds See “Mass Extinction Event” For Startups In 2023: “It Will Make The Financial Crisis Look Quaint”
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Leading venture capital players are predicting a “mass extinction event” for early- and mid-stage startups that will make the global fiscal collapse in 2008 “look quaint” by comparison. According to Globest, a new survey has found that 81% of early-stage startups are facing a failure in 2023 because—as of the end of October—they had less than 12 months of capital left to keep going because VC funds turned the spigot off last year on a flood of seed funding.
An international survey of 450 startup founders in the US and Europe was conducted between August and October 2022 by research firm January Ventures, with 61% of respondents from the US and 32% from Europe. The founders who participated in the survey also were categorized by the level of funding for the startup: 48% of respondents said they had raised pre-seed funding, 32% said they had raised seed funding and 16% hadn’t started raising funding.
The survey found that four out of five startups are at risk of failure this year, with less than 12 months of “runway” left—defined as “enough capital to keep the lights on” (in the dot.com era they called this a “burn rate,” a reference to the amount of VC capital a startup was burning through before generating any revenue).
An extinction event that extinguishes more than 80% of early-stage startups would be the largest since an asteroid in the form of a housing collapse hit the global financial system in 2008.
In a Twitter post after January Ventures’ findings were released—in, of course, January—Mark Suster, a partner of Los Angeles-based venture capital firm Upfront Ventures concurred with the survey’s findings, estimating that half of the 5,000 early-stage startups his company has funded over the past four years currently are at risk of going out of business.
Suster said that the number of startup failures has been “held artificially low” over the past seven years due to the market being flooded with excess capital, London-based InvestmentMonitor reported.
“Loss ratios in the last seven years have been artificially low due to excess capital. The pendulum will swing too far in the other direction,” Suster said, according to IM’s report.
In the same Twitter thread, Tom Loverro, a venture capitalist at Silicon Valley-based investment firm IVP predicted a “mass extinction event” for early- and mid-stage startups that will be worse than the epic collapse in 2008. His full twitter thread is added at the bottom of this story.
“There’s a mass extinction even coming for early- and mid-stage companies. Late ’23 & ’24 will make the ’08 financial crisis look quaint for startups,” Loverro tweeted.
The total for global venture capitalism dropped 32% in 2022, dropping below $300B from the $513B total of 2021, according to GlobalData. The fact that deal volume only showed a dip in 2022 from 21.7K to 19.2K is indicative of a prevalence of bigger deal sizes with far less seed funding rounds for early state ventures.
In the fourth quarter growth stage deals took a big hit, with a 24% drop in deal volume, GlobalData reported.
There’s a mass extinction event coming for early & mid-stage companies. Late ’23 & ’24 will make the ’08 financial crisis look quaint for startups. Below I explain when, why & how it will start & offer *detailed advice to founders* on surviving the looming die-off. /1
First, context: “great” startups will always get funded, albeit not on 2021-style terms. Many “good” startups will endure down or flat rounds. Many merely “ok” and pre-product-market-fit startups will die – at a greater rate than anything we’ve seen since 2008. /2
Many startups raised ~2 years of cash in 2021 and 2022. They cut burn in H2 2022 to extend that runway. But no matter what, they’ll need to raise again (or sell, or become a ) in late 2023 and 2024. /3
4 in 5 very early-stage companies have fewer than 12 months of runway, according to a survey of 450 founders last fall by January Ventures. /4
All of this points to a FLOOD of startups coming to market to raise capital beginning in H2 2023 and continuing through 2024. More will seek capital than will get funded. What you hear now is the quiet before the storm. /5
Late 2023 into 2024 will be worse than the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-9 for venture-backed startups. GFC was centered on Wall St. Private startup valuations, round sizes & burn didn’t go bananas in the years leading up to the GFC. /6
This time is different. 2021, for startups, was more toxic than the GFC. The hangover will start later this year and will be more severe than that from the GFC. /7
You’ll see a flood of startups raising $. Gun-shy VCs w/ alligator arms will slow their pace, take less risk and fund the startups with the most concrete traction. Timid LPs will hide under desks. /8
Meanwhile, reluctant insiders will debate doing pro rata in bridge rounds. Many rounds will involve structure. Layoffs, firesales and shutdowns will ensue. /9
But we’re not going back to 15x+ fwd revenue multiples even for excellent companies in the public markets. (We’re currently at ~4.5x for most companies and 8x-12x for the elite.) Private mkt multiples may not match the public markets but they will come a lot closer! /10
“Oh, but Tom, what about all the talk of dry powder that will make valuations go back up?” FALSE for the following reasons: /11
A. Funds won’t deploy their capital in 1 yr (unlike 2021) but rather in 3+ yrs, dividing that powder by 3 or 4! Yikes!
B. Many funds have already been partially or mostly invested; their next funds might be smaller and take 2x as long to raise, b/c of LP constraints. /12
C. 2001-2004, there was also “a lot of dry powder”, but valuations still plummeted and words like “structure”, “ratchet” and “pay-to-play” were commonplace. Look them up if you need to. For instance here. /13
To survive, here’s 7 steps early-stage founders should take: /14
Raise $ now or sooner than you expected, before the Great Flood of 2023. If you fail, you can always try again later. But if you wait, try later & fail, well… /15
You did a layoff & cut burn? Great. Now cut burn even more. Cut what’s “good to have” but continue to fund core R&D. /16
Focus on survival, not valuation. Don’t let your ego or anchoring bias kill you. Public company stock prices go up and down every microsecond. Your stock price fluctuating isn’t fatal. Running out of money is. /17
For mid and later stage startups, bring on seasoned operators in C-level roles and for some companies of scale, it might even mean bringing in professional CEOs. Done right, this allows founders to play to their strengths. /18
Trade better unit economics for growth. Growth rates are coming way down for everyone this year. It’s all relative when you’re raising money. If you can nail your unit economics, you can always ramp burn and growth later. /19
Play your cards right, survive & go on OFFENSE. The best time to build & take market share is when your competition is dead/in retreat. 2021 felt like the best year to build a startup but it also felt like the best year to buy high-growth stocks 😉 Now is the time! /20
Be decisive. Half-measures rarely succeed. /
END
end
A sign of the times; Adidas to cut dividend 80% after losing a huge $1.3 billion.
(zerohedge)
Adidas To Cut Dividend 80% After Losing $1.3 Billion Severing Ties With Kanye West
WEDNESDAY, MAR 08, 2023 – 12:45 PM
Adidas announced on Wednesday that it would slash its dividend by 79% because severing ties with “Yeezy” designer Kanye West has decimated earnings to the tune of $1.3 billion.
Last month we noted that shares of Adidas AG crashed on the German exchange after it warned that it’s sitting on a $1.3 billion pile of unsold Yeezy products, and were ‘reviewing’ options for utilizing the inventory.
Adidas terminated its partnership with Ye in October, after the rapper formerly known as Kanye West repeatedly made antisemitic comments on social media.
The Yeezy line accounted for 7% of Adidas’ total sales last year according to analysts from S&P Global Ratings.
The sportswear giant added Wednesday that it will have to write off around 500 billion euros ($530 billion) worth of Yeezy sneakers if it can’t find buyers for the inventory it currently holds. It might be forced into “literally burning the shoes,” industry experts told the Washington Post. -Insider
“2023 will be a transition year to build the base for 2024 and 2025,” said Bjørn Gulden, who took over as Adidas’s CEO in January, and promised to rebuild the company’s reputation. “We need to reduce inventories and lower discounts. We can then start to build a profitable business again in 2024.”
As FT notes, Gulden is disinclined to burn the shoes or give them away, both of which would entail a €500mn write-off. Instead, he suggested selling the trainers and donating the profits to charity.
Backing out Yeezy’s operating profit in 2021 suggests Adidas is starting from margins in mid-single digits. The current year should be one of transition. Dispiritingly, guidance points to negative sales growth as the company pushes inventory out of the door. –FT
“We will bring it back to be the best sports brand in the world once again,” he added.
end
3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//
end
3c East Palestine train disaster//updates
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Elon musk is getting under the skin of Democrats: he might put a propaganda warning label of CNN tweets
(zerohedge)
Elon Musk Says He Might Put A Propaganda Warning Label On CNN’s Tweets
Twitter owner Elon Musk suggested Monday that he may be compelled to place propaganda warnings on tweets posted by CNN after it emerged that the network actively discouraged staff not to look into or share any COVID lab origin information.
Fox News reports that an inside source at CNN has charged that the former president Jeff Zucker gave the order to everyone at CNN to back off any talk about COVID having originated in a Chinese lab, labelling it a “Trump talking point.”
After a bombshell leak revealed that the Department of Energy has concluded, in addition to the State Department and the FBI, that the virus did likely leak from the Wuhan lab, the CNN insider said “People are slowly waking up from the fog,” adding “It is kind of crazy that we didn’t chase it harder.”
Not only did CNN back off the lab leak theory, it began actively trying to debunk it with minions like Oliver Darcy writing stories headlined “Here’s how to debunk coronavirus misinformation and conspiracy theories from friends and family.”
With all of this in mind, Musk responded Monday to a Twitter user who asked him, “When are you going to label CNN as State Affiliated Media?”
Musk also responded to a tweet from Dr Jay Bhattacharya, noting that Fauci “egregiously betrayed the public trust,”:
Musk previously called for prosecuting Fauci, before releasing a host of Twitter Files in December that exposed how the Biden government attempted to control the pandemic narrative with censorship and suppression of information.
unbelievable!! the Democrats are undergoing shameful case of weaponization. Now it is the FTC going after Musk for tweets/discussions between him and journalists. Free speech is dead and private communications between journalists is in jeopardy.
(zerohedge)
“Shameful Case Of Weaponization”: Musk Responds To FTC Demands For Journalist Info
TUESDAY, MAR 07, 2023 – 07:45 PM
Update (2002ET): Elon Musk has responded to the Journal‘s report on the invasive FTC probe, as revealed by the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.
“A shameful case of weaponization of a government agency for political purposes and suppression of the truth!” Musk tweeted Tuesday evening.
Musk called the Biden administration’s ‘casual violation of the First Amendment’ (as Jay Bhattacharya put it), calling it a “serious attack on the Constitution by a federal agency.”
* * *
The Federal Trade Commission has demanded that Twitter hand over internal communications related to owner Elon Musk, including detailed information about mass layoffs he instituted shortly after his purchase of the social media giant.
And what did the FTC cite as justification? Concerns that staff reductions could compromise the company’s ability to protect users, the Wall Street Journal reports.
In 12 letters sent to Twitter and its lawyers since Mr. Musk’s Oct. 27 takeover, the FTC also asked the company to “identify all journalists” granted access to company records and to provide information about the launch of the revamped Twitter Blue subscription service, the documents show.
The FTC is also seeking to depose Mr. Musk in connection with the probe. -WSJ
“We are concerned these staff reductions impact Twitter’s ability to protect consumers’ information,” wrote an FTC official in a Nov. 10 letter to Twitter attorneys, shortly after the company’s initial wave of layoffs.
The demand letters were obtained by the GOP-led House Judiciary Committee which published limited excerpts in a Tuesday staff report concerning the ‘weaponization’ of federal agencies.
As recently as January, the FTC felt that Twitter was engaging in a “troubling pattern of ongoing delay” which raised “serious concerns about its compliance.”
In response to the Journal‘s questions, FTC spokesman Douglas Farrar said that “Protecting consumers’ privacy is exactly what the FTC is supposed to do,” adding that the agency is “conducting a rigorous investigation into Twitter’s compliance with a consent order that came into effect long before Mr. Musk purchased the company.”
The FTC inquiries have raised concerns over whether the company can comply with a $150 million settlement related to allegations of privacy violations which predated Musk’s purchase of the company.
According to the Judiciary Committee report, “There is no logical reason, for example, why the FTC needs to know the identities of journalists engaging with Twitter,” adding “There is no logical reason why the FTC, on the basis of user privacy, needs to analyze all of Twitter’s personnel decisions. And there is no logical reason why the FTC needs every single internal Twitter communication about Elon Musk.”
According to a November statement from Musk to Twitter employees, the company will follow both the letter and the spirit of the 2022 FTC settlement. In December, he announced that the company’s headcount had been reduced from roughly 8,000 employees to 2,000.
In letters ranging from Nov. 10 through Feb. 1, the FTC asked Twitter to quantify the number of layoffs and resignations, and requested an in-depth accounting of what new executives are responsible, and who would be overseeing privacy and security matters.
One letter pressed for an explanation of the departure of Jim Baker, the former Justice Department official who until December was a senior Twitter lawyer with responsibilities for ensuring compliance with the FTC order.
The FTC also asked for all internal Twitter communications “related to Elon Musk,” or sent “at the direction of, or received by” Mr. Musk.
Mr. Musk was scheduled to be deposed by the FTC on Feb. 3 but had a potential conflict related to court testimony in a securities lawsuit, according to a Jan. 24 FTC letter. The deposition hasn’t happened, said a person briefed on the matter. -WSJ
On Dec. 13, the FTC asked Twitter for information regarding journalists Musk has granted access to view internal communications as part of the so-called “Twitter Files” disclosures. The agency asked Twitter to describe the “nature of access granted each person,” and explain how allowing access “is consistent with your privacy and information security obligations under the Order.” They also asked if Twitter conducted background checks on the journalists, as well as whether they could access the personal messages of Twitter users.
Finally, as The Wall Street Journal points out,the Judiciary panel’s report accuses the FTC of overstepping its authority at the urging of progressive groups unhappy with Mr. Musk’s acquisition of the company.
Given the depth of the demands above, it is hard not to see their point.
end
Unbelievable: Schumer demands Murdoch pull Fox’s Tucker Carlson off the air
From Mitch McConnell to Mitt Romney, and every RINO and uniparty member in between, Carlson was pilloried using the standard ‘conspiracy theory’ narrative – though oddly, not one those that spoke out actually refuted any of the never-before-seen footage.
And yet, the so-called ‘mainstream media’ – which ate up every second of the January 6th Committee’s endless charade, fell silent:
But one man stood above it all and demanded this horrific show of free speech be brought to an end – enter Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stage left…
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen an actor treat the American people and American democracy with such disdain,” Schumer said.
“And he’s going to come back tonight with another segment. Fox News should tell him not to.”
Then with trembling voice, Schumer set forth his demands…
“These lies continue tonight, Rupert Murdoch, who has admitted they were lies and said he regretted it, has a special obligation to stop Tucker Carlson from going on tonight, now that he’s seen how he has perverted and slimed the truth, and from letting him go on again and again and again,” Schumer said.
“Not because their views deserve such opprobrium, but because our democracy depends on it.”
Schumer concluded by claiming that Carlson manipulated his audience by cherry-picking sequences.
To that we simply say – Pot meet Kettle, Chuck, old boy.
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report March 8, 2023 Issue 6963
Independent View of the News
Powell: Fed Is Prepared to Increase Pace of Rate Hikes if Warranted by Data – BBG 10:00 ET Powell: Latest Economic Data Has Been Stronger than Expected – BBG 10:00 ET Powell: Ultimate Rate Peak Likely to Be Higher than Expected – BBG 10:03 ET Powell: The Challenge Now Is in Core Services Excluding Housing – BBG Powell: Core Inflation Has Not Come Down as Fast as Hoped, Has Long Way to Go – 10:42 ET Powell: We Are Very Far from Price Stability Mandate – BBG 10:47 ET Powell: Fiscal Policy Not Big Factor Currently Behind Inflation – BBG 10:49 ET (The Big Lie!) Powell: Big Banks Don’t Have Large CRE Loan Exposure – BBG 11:05 ET
BBG 10:11 ET: Fed Swaps Reprice to Favor 50BP Hike in March over 25BP
Fed likely needs to raise rates higher and possibly faster, Powell tells lawmakers “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Powell said in prepared remarks for a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee… “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” Powell said… In a comment that may well be seized on by some Senate Democrats, Powell suggested that the labor market might have to weaken for inflation to fall across the broad services sector, a labor-intensive part of the economy where prices continue to rise. “To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions,” Powell said… https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-hill-appearance-update-views-status-disinflation-2023-03-07/
Powell: “This big service sector…that’s really the source of the inflation we have now, which didn’t have much to do with the supply chains. That’s where the challenge is now.”
WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) began the Fed hearing warning against overusing monetary policy to address high inflation, but he is using his five-minute Q&A with Powell to address other issues, such as regulatory policy and crypto assets. The second Democratic lawmaker to question Powell, Sen. Bob Menendez, focuses initially on the debt limit and the Biden administration’s focus on diversity in central bank nominees. Monetary policy comes up briefly at the end. Powell’s exchange with Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.) is notable insofar as Kennedy tried to get Powell to say that fiscal policy is not helping the Fed in its inflation fight. Powell was reluctant to concede the point to Kennedy. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) asks Powell what he would say to 2 million people losing their jobs if he keeps raising rates? A testy exchange leads to this Powell redirect: “Will working people be better off if we just walk away from our jobs and inflation remains 5%-6%?”
ESHs, stocks, and commodities tumbled but bonds rallied on Powell’s more hawkish than expected comments. The dollar soared.
The usual suspects bought the first stock drop, creating a bottom at 10:06 ET. ESHs jumped 27 handles by 10:34 ET. Sellers then overwhelmed buyers, ESHs and stocks sank to new lows. Conditioned traders fomented a Noon Balloon; ESHs rallied 23 handles in 18 minutes. Alas, sellers got more aggressive; ESHs and stocks tumbled to new lows. The decline inexorably worked lower until 14:57 ET. It was time for the last-hour upward manipulation. A 15-handle ESH rally ended at 15:38 ET.
Powell, some Fed officials, the financial media, many traders and numerous investors erroneously believed that inflation was arrested due to collapsing energy prices. They missed what is even more salient: wage and core services inflation. Now, inflation expectations are rising because a critical mass of The Street ‘gets it.’
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied moderately
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks tumbled; short-term yield rose; the dollar soared The US 2-year note hit 5%, the highest yield since 2007
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Powell issue at least one bullish remark that generates a manic rally?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4005.56 Previous session High/Low: 4050.00; 3980.31
NYT: Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say New intelligence reporting amounts to the first significant known lead about who was responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe… They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it, leaving open the possibility that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services…Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British nationals were involved… https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
China accuses U.S. of containment and warns of potential conflict “Western countries—led by the U.S.—have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” Mr. Xi was quoted by state media as saying… Top leaders in China rarely single out other countries or leaders by name for criticism… “The U.S. claims it wants to ‘compete to win’ with China and does not seek conflict. But in fact, the so-called ‘competition’ by the U.S. is all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death,” Qin said… “Why does the U.S. ask China not to provide weapons to Russia while it keeps selling arms to Taiwan?” Qin said… https://www.npr.org/2023/03/07/1161570798/china-accuses-u-s-of-containment-warns-of-potential-conflict
China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Qin Gang leveled criticism directly at the United States for its policies on China, Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, and Ukraine, to name a few. He even blasted the recent string of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, designed to curb inflation at home, for creating debt crises in other countries… “When the U.S. says it wants to ‘install guardrails and have ‘no conflict’ in China-U.S. relations, it really means that the U.S. requires China not to fight back when hit or scolded, but this cannot be done!” he said… “If the United States does not hit the brakes, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation,” he said… “By directly pointing to the U.S. as the source of major problems around the world, by name, you feel like that sets the possibility for China to potentially take substantive actions that they haven’t beenwilling to take before,” he (Scott Kennedy, Center for Strategic and International Studies) said. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/07/1161570798/china-accuses-u-s-of-containment-warns-of-potential-conflict
@RyanDetrick: New highs in casinos, steel, lodging, building materials, travel, auto manufacturers, etc. Just like every recession in history, said no one ever. We’ve been in the no landing camp and this type of leadership confirms Mr. Market isn’t buying what the economists keep selling.
Today – Powell gives his semiannual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Powell is likely to repeat his comments and concerns. Typically, the House is more hostile to Fed Chairs than the schmoozers in the Senate. It is possible that GOP House members will press Jerome on his fib that the trillions of dollars in spending is not responsible for current inflation.
Powell is unlikely to be more hawkish than he was yesterday. Ergo, the odds of a relief rally are high, as are the odds of Powell issuing an idiotic but dovish remark. ESHs hit -1.25 at 21:15 ET.
Expected economic data: Jan JOLTS Job Openings 10.584m; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8 ET, Powell testifies at the House Financial Services Committee 10:00 ET
@TuckerCarlson: Virtually no one in Washington, Republican or Democrat, wanted to see this tape released tonight. (Carlson’s Monday night monologue) https://t.co/YfpvaIZTbn
Dems. RINOs & the MSM are livid over Carlson’s Jan. 6 videos release. Some say the videos promote a false narrative. They are asking, “Who are you going to believe, us or your lying eyes?”
@ColumbiaBugle: They’re Freaking Out Big Time – Senator Schumer went to the Senate Floor this morning to: Condemn Tucker Carlson’s January 6th Tapes Segment last night; Call for Fox News and Rupert Murdoch to stop Tucker Carlson from releasing another report on the January 6th Tapes tonight (“Democracy depends on it”); Repeats the lie about the death of Officer Brian Sicknick https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1633136398382297088
@cspan: @LeaderMcConnell: “With regard to the presentation on Fox News last night, I want to associate myself entirely with the opinion of the chief of the Capitol police about what happened on January 6th.”https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1633188384150548480 @LeaderMcConnell: “It was a mistake in my view for Fox News to depict this in a way that’s completely at variance with what our chief law enforcement official here at the Capitol thinks.” https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1633188684378849283 @elonmusk: I keep forgetting which party he (Mitch) belongs to. (The Establishment Uniparty)
Despite the Establishment’s palpable panic and polemics, Carlson on Tuesday night roasted Schumer & Mitch for trying to censor facts about Jan. 6.
@VigilantFox: Tucker Rips Chuck Schumer’s Attacks on J6 Tapes: “In Free Countries, Governments Do Not Lie About Protests”. “Those videos touch a nerve because they’re a threat to the lies that Chuck Schumer has been telling for the last 26 months.”https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1633275314594824192
@MZHemingway: Tucker calls out both Schumer AND McConnell for attacking journalism and calling for censorship — notes that this tells you they have same policy goals. Says that they only put forth an illusion of being in different parties.
@seanmdav: Tucker just blasted McConnell, Tillis, and Romney for “degrading themselves” and “peddling lies.” “McConnell, Tillis, Romney, Schumer: they’re all on the same team!” Tucker then blasted McConnell for living a life of luxury thanks to Chinese cash.
Carlson torched Pelosi for the security failures on Jan. 6, noting there were ample warnings that Nancy eschewed and hid from the front-line security people.
@greg_price11: Former Capitol Police Officer Tarik Johnson tells Tucker that when the building was breached on January 6, he requested permission to evacuate the Senate but didn’t get a response and did it on his own. https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1633275296202870795
@DC_Draino: One of the biggest takeaways from Tucker’s J6 segment was how Pelosi & McConnell turned down repeated requests for police backup & National Guard reinforcements *after* the chaos broke out. America is now learning what many of us have known for 2 years; J6 was a setup.
@seanmdav: One reason so many people believe that Feds helped incite J6 protests is that the Feds helped incite J6 protests, which is why the Feds refuse to tell us how many people they had on the ground pretending to be protesters.
@elonmusk: Besides misleading the public, they withheld evidence for partisan political reasons that sent people to prison for far more serious crimes than they committed. That is deeply wrong, legally and morally.
Carlson’s exposure of MSM/Dem/RINO lying and deceit over Jan. 6 and the reprehensible Jan. 6 Committee has generated outrage from the exposed. What if there were more Carlsons in the media?
@Twinity5, Jan 7, 2021: 1) First off, I watched this plain clothes (no MAGA gear like most) guy go around and methodically cut down all the fences and pull out their posts by himself. Maybe he’s just helpful?2) I first saw him doing it near the 2 portapotties to the right of the Capitol building. In this clip you’ll see him by the platforms near the front tearing down more fences and posts as the S. Korean/Japanese parade forged its way towards the front…https://twitter.com/Twinity5/status/1347346207547551744 @JackPosobiec: Why has the FBI never identified the man who cut down the fences at Jan 6?
GOP Rep @laurenboebert: Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney knew the truth about January 6th all along and LIED to the American people. They are shills for extreme liberals! Many of us have received violent threats because of their lies. Even worse, we have American citizens still imprisoned simply because two fake Republicans refused to expose the Democrats. They’ve assisted in Nancy Pelosi’s propaganda and destroyed people’s lives. They are TRAITORS of the highest order!
@mrddmia: Dear Senate Republicans: Stop lighting yourselves on fire, by attacking @TuckerCarlson. Yes, the January 6th protests clearly got out of control. No, it was not an insurrection. It was a riot.Americans’ eyes aren’t lying to them when they watch the surveillance videos. The Democrats have politicized and weaponized January 6th, to hunt down and destroy their political enemies. They went too far. Stop being hysterical.
‘Weaponization’ subcommittee highlights FTC ‘harassment’ of Musk-owned Twitter “The timing, scope, and frequency of the FTC’s demands to Twitter suggest a partisan motivation to its action,”… “There is no logical reason, for example, why the FTC needs to know the identities of journalists engaging with Twitter,” the subcommittee asserted. “There is no logical reason why the FTC, on the basis of user privacy, needs to analyze all of Twitter’s personnel decisions. And there is no logical reason why the FTC needs every single internal Twitter communication about Elon Musk.”https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/weaponization-subcommittee-highlights-ftc-harassment-musk-owned-twitter
GOP @RepGosar: The Mexican Cartels are terrorists who kidnap, harm, rape and kill American citizens. They profit off our suffering through drug smuggling and human trafficking. The Cartels declared war on us long ago. The Left did nothing to stop them. We don’t have to live like this… – Our southern border should be militarized. – Fentanyl dealers need to receive the death penalty. – Trump’s wall must be completed. – We need an immigration moratorium.
Wagner leader Prigozhin stands less than a kilometre from the centre of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. 8th of March, 2023.
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
) in late 2023 and 2024. /3
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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