MARCH 10: THE 18TH LARGEST BANK IN THE USA SILICON VALLEY BANK FAILED AND NOW IN RECEIVORSHIP: SLB WAS A BANK TO ALL THE MAJOR VENTURE CAPITALISTS WHO ARE NOW SCRAMBLING TONIGHT; SLB WAS AN INHOUSE PROVIDER OF MAJOR FINANCIAL SERVICES, MORTGAGES ETC. TO OUR VENTURE CAPITALISTS// AND THIS CAUSED GOLD TO SKYROCKET UP $31.60 TO $1862.30//SILVER WAS MUCH MORE SUBDUED UP ONLY 36 CENTS TO $20.47//PLATINUM WAS UP $19.55 TO $960.50 BUT PALLADIUM SUFFERED AGAIN DOWN $30.90 TO $1373.05//USA JOBS REPORT WAS STELLAR BUT NOBODY PAID ATTENTION//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA/VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSA UPDATES//ESSENTIAL READING TONIGHT: ALASDAIR MACLEOD , JAMES RICKARDS & PAM AND RUSS MARTENS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
132 C SG AMERICAS 219 323 C HSBC 66 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 6 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 100 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 222 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 2 690 C ABN AMRO 21 737 C ADVANTAGE 6 6
TOTAL: 325 325
JPMORGAN stopped 2/325 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 325 NOTICES FOR 32500 OZ or 1.0108 TONNES
total notices so far: 3012 contracts for 301200 oz (9.3685 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2947 for 14,735,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $21.60
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//////(VERY STRANGE)
INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 36 CENTS
AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.879. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 56 CONTRACTS TO 128,467 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER WAS SET AT 121,299 MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.02). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 646 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 702 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.120 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.120 MILLION OZ/ //// V) TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –54 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 days, total 4137 contracts: OR 20.685 MILLION OZ . (517 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 20.685 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 20.685 MILLION OZ//INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 56 WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 702 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.120 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 646 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5164 CONTRACTS TO 454,259 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1302 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5,164 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $16.50 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 32,500 OZ (1.010 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $16.50 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2183 OI CONTRACTS (6.790 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2981 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 454,259
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2183 CONTRACTS WITH 5164CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2981 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2183 CONTRACTS OR 6.790 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2981 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5164) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2183 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 32,150 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 9.5707 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,082 CONTRACTS OR 2,608,200 OZ OR 81.125 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3260 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 81.125 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.125/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 81.125 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 56 CONTRACTS OI TO 128,413 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2023.
EFP ISSUANCE 702 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 702 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 702 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 56CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 702 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 646 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //2.009 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.02 PTS OR 1.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 605.82 PTS OR 3.04% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 479.18% PTS OR 1.67% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 2.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9518//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9573// /Oil DOWN TO 75.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.86 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5164 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 454,259 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.50.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2981 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2981 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2981 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2183 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2981LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 5164 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.50. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (9.5707) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 9.5707 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $16.50) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2183 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (MAKES NO SENSE WITH A STRONG GAIN IN PRICE???)
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 6.790 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 32,500 OZ (1.0108 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $16.50
WE HAD -1302 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2183 CONTRACTS OR 218300 OZ OR 6.790 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3012 notices 301,200 9.3685 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Into HSBC: 35,588.875 oz
total withdrawals: 35,588.875 oz
in tonnes: 1.10 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 390 contracts having GAINED 256 contracts. We had 69 notices filed on THURSDAY so we
gained another 325 contracts or an additional 32,500 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April lost 27,576 contracts down to 265,545 contracts
May LOST 15 contracts to stand at 156
We had 325 notice(s) filed today for 32,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 325 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3012 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 390 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 325 x 100 oz per contract equals 307700 OZ OR 9.5707 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (3012 x 100 oz+ 390 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (325)x 100 oz} which equals 307,700 oz standing OR 9.5707 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2947 x 5,000 oz = 14,735,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(81) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 2947 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (x81) – number of notices served upon today (4) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.120 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.120 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 903.15 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 478.879 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
END
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
JAMES RICKARDS>>>
Rickards explains perfectly in simplistic terms the Debt Ceiling debate as well as the budget debate and how both can cause the shutting down of Congress.
Remember Modern Monetary Theory or “MMT”? I first sounded the alarm back in 2018 and then again in 2021.
At the time, MMT was all the rage among monetary and fiscal policy wonks. It seemed to offer the best of all possible worlds. You can spend as much as you want without any downside.
The main tenets of MMT are that debt and deficits don’t matter because the Fed can monetize the debt by printing money. The Fed can just wire money directly to government contractors to pay bills.
But MMT gradually faded from the headlines.
The pandemic of 2020 changed everything. MMT was still not a topic of discussion. It didn’t matter, because MMT was being practiced, even if by stealth.
COVID relief and economic “stimulus” was Job One. Congress provided $2.7 trillion in new spending including $1,400 checks sent to every American. Then, on Dec. 21, 2020, Trump signed another $900 billion relief package that provided an additional $600 check to every American.
Wait, There’s More!
Not to be outdone, the new Biden administration passed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA), which provided another $1.9 trillion of deficit spending, and sent another $1,400 check to every American.
The runaway spending didn’t end there. On Nov. 15, 2021, Joe Biden signed the $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This was followed by $737 billion in new deficit spending for the Green New Deal in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) signed by Biden on Aug. 16, 2022.
The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from a dangerously high 106% at the start of the Trump administration to an astronomical 124% or so today, the highest in U.S. history.
For perspective, the other countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio in that range include Lebanon, Greece and Italy. The U.S. is now a full-fledged member of the deadbeat club.
Does this debt and deficit debacle mean that MMT has achieved its goals and is now the guiding light for fiscal and monetary policy?
The answer is: yes and no.
It’s Complicated
The “yes” answer is easy to explain. MMT says that spending doesn’t matter and deficits don’t matter. The U.S. can issue as much debt as it wants and spend as much money as it wants.
As long as the debt is denominated in dollars and the Fed has a U.S. dollar printing press, we can always monetize the debt with new money. Problem solved.
With $10 trillion of new debt in three years and a 124% debt-to-GDP ratio, the U.S. is certainly acting as if debt and deficits don’t matter. This is the essence of MMT.
The “no” answer is more nuanced and political. It’s true that we are acting in accordance with MMT, but the MMT advocates are keeping their heads down. Why shouldn’t they? They are getting exactly what they want and the Republicans have gone along with it.
Trump increased the deficit by $4.6 trillion in his last year in office, almost half the $10 trillion total increase under Trump and Biden together since 2020. There’s no need to push MMT or even discuss it if Republicans and Democrats are acting in accordance with it.
So the U.S. is implementing MMT without acknowledging or even understanding it. It now exists in practice, but it has not passed a political litmus test. The future of MMT hangs in the balance starting now.
The Debt Ceiling “Crisis”
We’re facing a debt ceiling “crisis.”
What is the debt ceiling exactly? It’s a numeric limit on the total debt that the U.S. Treasury is allowed to issue. There’s no debt ceiling in the U.S. Constitution. Instead, it’s imposed by statute. There’s no legal requirement for that statute.
The debt ceiling itself could be repealed by Congress at which point there would be no limit on the size of the national debt. Still, Congress likes the idea of a debt ceiling. It forces the White House and Treasury to come back to Congress from time to time to request increases as needed.
This gives Congress some leverage to ask for political concessions in return for raising the debt ceiling. So the debt ceiling is really a political football rather than a serious macroeconomic policy tool.
In the end, Congress always approves the ceiling increases. In a way, the debt ceiling debate is all for show. To be clear, the debt ceiling does not mean the Treasury cannot issue any new debt. It means that the Treasury cannot issue debt that increases the total outstanding above the ceiling.
The Looming “X-Date”
The “X-Date” is the day the Treasury is projected to run out of cash and can’t pay bills or pay off Treasury note holders. Right now, the X-Date is estimated to be around June 5, 2023, but even that is a guess. The real X-Date will depend on how much positive cash flow the Treasury generates during tax season around mid-April.
Congress and the White House are also battling over the budget for fiscal 2024, which begins on Oct. 1, 2023. If a new budget is not passed by Sept. 30, 2023, the government will shut down at midnight.
It is possible that Congress could extend that deadline with a continuing resolution (CR) that permits government agencies to keep spending at existing levels for existing programs until Congress gets around to passing a budget.
Although the debt ceiling increase and the budget are separate issues with separate procedures, they are converging at about the same time. Mid-April is the date when markets will focus on this more intently because of the X-Date.
We’ll have better estimates of the X-Date by April, and a kind of “countdown to default” will begin.
Where does the MMT crowd stand in all of this?
Putting MMT to the Test
As noted, supporters of MMT have had the luxury of getting everything they want politically without having to stand up and defend MMT publicly. COVID and climate change (really, bogus climate alarmism) acted as the perfect cover for the Trump and Biden spending seemingly without having to worry about debt or deficits at all.
The mantra in Washington was “spend, spend, spend.” And they did.
Now that the pandemic is over and the Green New Scam is law (for better or worse), a day of reckoning has arrived. If the debt ceiling is raised and deficit spending is increased without serious reforms, it will be left to MMT’ers to explain why none of this matters.
They will rise to the occasion. Again, the main tenets of MMT are that debt and deficits don’t matter because the Fed can monetize the debt by printing money. If inflation emerges, the government can simply raise taxes to cool off the inflation.
Of course, MMT is nonsense. One can be reasonably sure that if members of Congress don’t understand MMT, they definitely do not understand the flaws in MMT. But that won’t stop the banner from being raised. Expect to hear a lot of commentaries that “deficits don’t matter,” and “debt doesn’t matter” as the debt ceiling and budget battles are being waged in the months ahead.
We can be sure of a few things…
There Will Be No Default
The Treasury will not default on its debt. You’ll be reading a lot of stories about a debt default in the coming months. Those stories will be used to scare voters into a “clean” debt ceiling increase.
Whatever your views on the debt ceiling, you can ignore these default stories. It won’t happen because it serves no one’s interest. A better way is to think of the debt ceiling debate as a game of chicken between conservative Republicans and the White House.
In the end, Republicans will get some (not all) of what they want and the debt ceiling will be raised. That will lay the issue to rest … until the next time.
Passing the budget is more complicated. The budget is huge and there’s a lot more at stake than just debt issuance. Spending increases, defense spending, support for Ukraine, social programs, tax increases and more are all on the table.
Although the budget deadline is Sept. 30, Congress will try to get something done over the course of July and August. This will happen at exactly the same time that the debt ceiling and X-Date crisis is playing out.
In the end, the debt ceiling will be raised, most likely in July. A government shutdown in late September is a real possibility. That will be another point of high volatility in stocks. All in all, it will be an interesting year.
At a minimum, investors should expect increased market volatility as default talk grows louder. It may be a good time to reduce equity exposure and increase your cash allocation.
END
Pam and Russ Martens: Bank stocks plummet as runs gain momentum at non-traditional banks
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-03-10 10:34Section: Daily Dispatches
By Pam and Russ Martens Wall Street on Parade Friday, March 10, 2023
If you keep a diary or news journal, be sure to write down March 9, 2023, as the day that a full-blown bank run began at non-traditional banks in the United States.
Bank depositors were already nervous after federally-insured Silvergate Bank (ticker SI) announced Wednesday evening that it was closing and liquidating. Its publicly traded stock had already lost over 90% of its market value over the prior 12 months.
Silvergate had made the fatal decision several years ago to become the go-to bank for crypto companies, including scandalized Sam Bankman-Fried’s collapsed house of frauds, FTX and Alameda Research. As details of its questionable activities related to Bankman-Fried’s enterprises emerged, 68% of its deposits related to crypto companies took flight in just the last quarter of 2022. After Silvergate confirmed in an filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 1 that an investigation of its conduct was underway at the U.S. Department of Justice, and that it had doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern, its fate was sealed.
Now for the second time in less than two weeks depositors are panicking over the fate of another federally-insured bank. This time it’s Silicon Valley Bank (ticker for holding company is SIVB) which, like Silvergate Bank, had become a go-to bank for a special niche customer. Instead of crypto, its niche was venture capital outfits and private equity firms.
Silicon Valley Bank is not a small bank. According to its regulatory filings, as of December 31 it held $161.4 billion in domestic deposits and $13.9 billion in foreign deposits. …
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Your weekend reading material:
Alasdair Macleod: Why credit needs a golden anchor
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-03-09 12:00Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, March 9, 2023
This article examines the relationship between credit and its anchor in value. Today that anchor is fiat currency, which is both parochial and unstable. Historically and in law the anchor has always been gold.
It is a common error to think of credit in a narrow sense, without realising that officially recorded credit in the form of banknotes and deposit accounts with the commercial banks is only a minor part of the total credit in an economy. This article takes a holistic view of credit.
The relationship between credit and whatever provides an anchor to its value is a far larger topic from that commonly discussed in economic journals. It involves an understanding of the relationships between currency credit and commercial bank credit, the consequences of which rarely occur to economic commentators.
There is evidence that changes in central bank credit have a greater impact on prices than an equivalent change in commercial bank credit – a new and important topic for our consideration.
This article draws on the history of law as it applies to banking, money, and credit. For both contemporary economists and the layman, it involves some concepts that may be novel to them. But given that they concern the very survival of contemporary currencies, they are worth making the effort to understand. …
Perth Mint faces LBMA review over gold ‘doping’ charge
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-03-09 20:08Section: Daily Dispatches
By Deep Vakil Reuters Thursday, March 9, 2023
The London Bullion Market Association, the top accreditor of gold refiners, said today it was reviewing allegations that Perth Mint had sold “doped” gold to China.
An Australian media report Monday said Perth Mint, the largest processor of newly mined gold, may have to recall a potential $9 billion worth of diluted or “doped” 1-kilogram gold bars sold to top consumer China.
The Australian gold refiner, a member of the LBMA, rejected those allegations Tuesday, saying there was no question about the value and purity of gold bars it had sold to customers in China, after it implemented new procedures following a 2021 review of its refining practices.
“Doping” or “alloying” is an industry-wide accepted practice to minimise the amount of pure gold above the 99.99% purity level in each bar. …
Stefan Gleason writs that many states are moving bills toward sound money legislation
(Stefan Gleeson/MMN)
‘Sound money’ bills moving forward rapidly in many states
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-03-09 20:41Section: Daily Dispatches
8:40p ET Thursday, March 9, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Writing for Money Metals News Service, Stefan Gleason tonight gives a summary of progress across the United States being made by “sound money” legislation, particularly in regard to eliminating sales and income taxes on the monetary metals and creating state gold reserves.
The summary is headlined “Sound Money Bills Moving Forward Rapidly in Many States” and it’s posted at Money Metals here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
Two Former Merrill Traders Sentenced To One Year In Prison For Precious Metal Manipulation
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 12:25 PM
Two former Merrill Lynch traders were each sentenced to a year and a day in prison Thursday for manipulating the precious-metals markets, the US Department of Justice said Thursday.
Edward Bases, 61, and John Pacilio, 59, used large “spoof” orders to push precious metal prices up and down for their own gain, the Justice Department said in a statement.
They were convicted in Chicago in 2021 for fraudulently pushing market prices up or down by placing large “spoof” orders in the precious metals futures markets that they did not intend to fill. As a result they manipulated the price of gold, silver and platinum prices in the direction they wanted from 2008 to 2014.
The government has been targeting alleged market manipulation since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to convictions of traders and settlements with big banks. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest US bank, agreed to pay $920 million in 2020 to settle Justice Department spoofing allegations, by far the biggest fine for any financial institution.
In August, the head of the JPMorgan’s precious-metals business and his top gold trader were convicted of fraud and market manipulation. Another trader was convicted in December. A trial in 2020 led to convictions of two former Deutsche Bank AG traders, who also got a year in prison.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9518
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9573
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.02 PTS OR 1.40%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 605.82 PTS OR 3.04%
2. Nikkei closed UP 479.18 PTS OR 1.67%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.14 Euro RISES TO 1.0594 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.402!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 136.63/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.501%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.301%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.534…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.302//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1834.05//silver at: 20.09 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 14/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.98//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.63/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, LOWERS TO .402% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9262–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9813well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.826% DOWN 10 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.807 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.767 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,96…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.716% DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Tumble As SVB Implosion Spark Global Banking Turmoil; Payrolls Loom
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 08:01 AM
US futures and European stocks pared broader declines earlier sparked by a rush to havens amid concerns about the health of the US banking system following the collapse of Silvergate and the rout that has crushed Silicon Valley Bank, sending it shares down 40% premarket after plunging 60% on Thursday amid a spreading liquidity crisis. The collapse of the lender was sufficiently traumatic to push today’s payrolls report – until yesterday the highlight of the week – off the front page.
S&P 500 futures fell slightly, erasing a bigger drop that pushed eminis briefly below 3,900 setting up the underlying index to extend a rout fueled by liquidity concerns in the banking sector and as investors prepare for the monthly payrolls report. The benchmark dropped the most in over two weeks on Thursday, with banks slumping as SVB Financial Group took steps to shore up its capital position following losses in its securities portfolio. Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity gauge dropped more than 1%, with an index of bank stocks sliding the most since June. Bond markets were also roiled by the SIVB news, sending yields plunging and reversing sharp gains earlier this week following Powell’s hawkish speech. Treasuries extended gains for a second day, driving 10-year yields down by as much as 11 basis points to a three-week low, while German 10-year government borrowing costs were at one point poised for their biggest slump since early February.
In premarket trading, Shares of SVB – a major lender to startup companies – dropped 46% after a record 60% plunge on Thursday after a surprise announcement from SVB that it was holding a $2.25 billion share sale after a significant loss on its portfolio, which included US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Other banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America also inched lower.
However, the big impact of SVB’s woes is that it has investors asking whether this be the start of a much bigger problem as attention turns to risks that may lurk in other financial institutions after the Fed’s steep rate hikes. Some market strategists said that the declines are likely to remain smaller Friday as the risk of contagion from SVB is relatively contained. Their thesis was not helped after several VC titans such as Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and others advised portfolio businesses to withdraw their money.
“The events around SVB highlight some of the additional risks of financial stress,” said Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. “There is a sense now of the bigger risks to the economy the more the Fed raises interest rates. At the margins it is raising the question of whether the Fed will indeed be able to do a 50 basis-point rate hike this month.”
“I suspect there’s some comfort that SVB’s troubles are not systemic as for the majority of banks — improving interest margins due to rising rates are offsetting losses on their long-duration investment portfolios,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.
Here Are some of the other notable premarket movers:
Roblox (RBLX US) shares rise 2.2% as Jefferies raises the online games designer to buy from hold, saying it expects continued growth through near-term macro and competitive pressures.
Caterpillar (CAT US) shares fall 2.1% as UBS cuts the construction-machinery maker to sell from neutral, saying its growth momentum is not good enough to justify its valuation.
Oracle (ORCL US) fell 4.5% after the software company reported cloud license and on-premise license revenue that was weaker than expected. Overall revenue was essentially in line with the analyst consensus, while adjusted earnings were slightly stronger.
DocuSign (DOCU US) fell 13% after the e-signature company gave a first-quarter billings forecast that is weaker than expected. Analysts noted that the fourth-quarter results were strong but the company was re- investing much of its cost savings.
Allbirds (BIRD US) shares slump 22% after the sneaker brand reported fourth-quarter net revenue that missed estimates. Analysts noted a lower-than- expected first-quarter outlook.
Meanwhile, all eyes today are on the jobs report for February, due at 8:30 a.m. in New York. Payroll growth has topped estimates for 10 straight months in the longest streak in decades, a trend that, if extended, will boost pressure on the Fed to keep hiking rates. Median estimate for February change in nonfarm payrolls is 225k after 517k gain in January, while crowd-sourced whisper number is 250k (our full preview is here).For today’s implied post-payrolls move, JPM’s Bram Kaplan estimates the options market is pricing a ~1.4% S&P 500 move for NFP. The bank’s chief economist, Mike Feroli, sees NFP to print around 200k vs 225k survey vs 517k prior and February Unemp rate to be same as Jan’s 3.4%, in line with consensus.
“For the Fed these ripples across the financial system will be something to monitor but they are much more focused on their inflation mandate,” said Georgina Taylor, head of multi-asset at Invesco. “A strong set of data “will keep pressure on the Fed,” she added.
In Europe, banks and financial services are the worst-performing stock sectors, leading the Stoxx 600 down by as much as 1.9%, while bond-proxy utilities was the only sector up. European banks stocks slid on Friday and underperformed the broader market after after US peers plunged following the collapse of Silvergate Capital and concerns around SVB Financial. The Stoxx 600 Banks index dropped as much as 4.9%, the most since June; subindex is down 3.6% at 1:03pm CET, compared to a 1.2% decline for the Stoxx 600 benchmark. Deutsche Bank was the biggest faller in the subindex, down as much as 9.8%; HSBC, Santander, BNP Paribas and ING the other major drags on the index. UBS fell as much as 5.4% to drag on the Stoxx 600 Financial Services index; private equity investors Partners Group and EQT also sink, while Credit Suisse shares plunged as much as 6.1% to hit a new record low. Credit Suisse analyst Jon Peace says the drop for European banks, driven by worries about unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios, offers a buying opportunity (of course he would say that). Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Daimler Truck drops as much as 4.8% in Frankfurt after its fourth- quarter earnings miss and a broader selloff in cyclical shares overshadowed its 2023 outlook
Schroders shares fall as much as 4.3% after being cut to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse as the broker sees the UK fund manager contending with headwinds
Bachem Holding falls as much as 8.5% after an offering of 1.25m shares priced at CHF86.50 apiece, representing a 5.9% discount to Thursday’s close
Kion falls as much as 6.7% after being cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley with the broker seeing an uncertain picture for price-volume dynamics at the forklift maker in 2023
Casino shares fall as much as 5.8% after the French grocer reported trading profit for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate
Mobilezone shares decline as much as 9.3% after it announced disappointing weaker gross and Ebit margins
OTP Bank shares decline as much as 1.9% after Hungary’s largest lender said 2022 profit fell after it booked a slew of charges linked to the war in Ukraine
Vodafone shares rise as much as 1.7% after Bloomberg reported that the UK telecom operator is at the final stages of talks to merge its British operations with Three UK
Breedon rises as much as 5% after Abicad Holding said it is acquiring about 5.3m ordinary shares at price of 75p apiece, representing a premium to the last close
U-blox shares climb as much as 11% after the Swiss position-systems provider reported strong profitability and free cash flow for 2022
Leonardo gains as much as 2.9% after the Italian defense group projected profit for 2023 that was slightly ahead of estimates
Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia tumbled, following US financial shares lower, after warnings from Silicon Valley bank led to concern about the broader sector, and the yen slides as the BOJ leaves policy unchanged. The Nikkei slumps 1.6% and Topix is 1.7% lower. China’s Shanghai Composite Index falls 1.2% and the CSI 300 slips 1.1%. Hong Kong shares also decline with the benchmark down 2.5% and Hang Seng Tech Index down 3.6%.
Japanese stocks had their biggest drop in more than five months as shares of the nation’s major lenders tumbled after the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave policy unchanged set off a plunge in bond yields. The Topix fell 1.9% to 2,031.58 as of the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, having its steepest drop since Sept. 26. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial contributed the most to the decline, falling 6.1%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 159 rose and 1,953 fell, while 48 were unchanged. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% to 28,143.97. The Topix’s gauge for banks slid the most in three years, with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Mizuho Financial each falling at least 4.9%. Banks also dropped after their US peers slumped on concerns that signs of trouble at a Silicon Valley-based lender may point to broader risks for the sector. “Perhaps some investors were hoping for a review of yield curve control after the BOJ’s monetary policy meeting,” said Tomoaki Kawasaki, a senior analyst at Iwaicosmo Securities Co. “There was probably some talk about Silicon Valley in the morning, and the stock market was falling a little.”
Australia’s stocks slumped the most in six months: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 2.3% to close at 7,144.70, posting its biggest decline since mid-September after concerns over a Silicon Valley-based lender sapped investor appetite. Banks were among the biggest drags on the Australian gauge, following their Wall Street peers lower as troubles at SVB Financial Group spurred concerns about the wider lending sector. Read: Asian Bank Stocks Drop to Two-Month Low on SVB Worries In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 11,727.04.
India’s banking stocks posted their biggest slump in more than a month to lead declines as the nation’s benchmark gauges joined a global selloff triggered by worries over the health of the US banking system. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.1% to 59,135.13 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 1%. Friday’s selloff saw both benchmarks end the week atleast a percent lower. For the year, the measures have lost 2.8% and 3.8%, respectively. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, with a 2.6% fall on Friday. Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 21 dropped and nine advanced. Fifteen of 20 sector gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. closed lower, led by the banking index which fell 1.9%, its biggest drop since Jan. 27. Banking and financial stocks, with nearly 40% weight in the benchmarks, have been among the prominent decliners recently with higher interest rates expected to impact margins as well as hurt demand for fresh loans.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower for a second day and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries extended a rally across the curve as money markets eased Fed tightening bets. Euro-area and UK bonds also rallied in early trade, with short-dated debt outperforming amid demand for haven assets and amid paring of central bank hikes. The euro rose to trade around $1.06. The cost of converting euro payments into dollars using cross-currency basis swaps rises at the European open as demand for the greenback surges
The pound rose, buoyed by stronger-than-forecast data on UK economic growth in January, which added to evidence of resilience in the face of a cost-of-living squeeze and widespread industrial unrest. Gilts followed moves in European bonds and Treasuries
Norway’s krone slumped after data showed the headline inflation rate declined to 6.3% in February, versus the median projection of 6.8% in a Bloomberg poll of analysts that was the same as the central bank’s estimate. Underlying inflation, the measure followed by Norges Bank, also declined from an all-time high to 5.9%, matching the central bank’s view, while analysts had expected a smaller slowdown
The yen reversed gains and government bonds advanced after the BOJ kept its policy settings for its negative interest rate and yield curve control program unchanged at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last meeting
Australian sovereign bonds extended opening gains after the BOJ left its key policy rates unchanged. Aussie dollar dips were bought into by exporters and leveraged funds squaring up before US jobs data later today
Global bonds broadly rally: Treasuries are richer across the curve, extending Thursday’s sharp rally, while off session highs reached during European morning as stock futures pare losses. Yields are richer by 3bp-6bp across the curve led by intermediates, steepening 5s30s spread by 3bp on the day and adding to Thursday’s aggressive bull-steepening move; 10-year yields around 3.85%, richer by 5bp vs Thursday’s after touching 3.797%, lowest since Feb. 16. Flight-to-quality backdrop remains a theme, supporting Treasuries, amid mounting worries about contagion in US banking system from SVB Financial’s slump. Treasury yields underperform gilts and bunds across the curve as they catch up to Thursday’s action. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany. Bloomberg dollar spot index is flat.
In commodities, WTI Crude continues its decline trading ~$75. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,834/oz.
Looking to the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report for February. Other releases include the UK’s GDP for January. And from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,910.75
MXAP down 1.9% to 156.95
MXAPJ down 1.8% to 502.93
Nikkei down 1.7% to 28,143.97
Topix down 1.9% to 2,031.58
Hang Seng Index down 3.0% to 19,319.92
Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,230.08
Sensex down 1.1% to 59,130.19
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.3% to 7,144.69
Kospi down 1.0% to 2,394.59
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 453.84
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.53%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0597
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $81.35/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,836.92
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.14% to 105.16
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
President Joe Biden and European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen will likely make their meeting at the White House on Friday convivial, despite trade tensions and the pressure of the war in Ukraine
UK GDP grew 0.3% in January, recovering part of a 0.5% decline in December when strikes halted activity, Office for National Statistics figures show. Economists forecast growth of 0.1% in January
Janus Henderson’s emerging-market hard currency debt fund has a “cautious overweight” on Argentina as the bonds are cheap and there’s expectation of a change in government at the October election, Thomas Haugaard says
The ECB will step up its fight against stubborn inflation by raising interest rates four more times and unwinding its €5 trillion ($5.3 trillion) bond portfolio at a quicker pace, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists
Japan’s broken bond market gave Governor Haruhiko Kuroda one last salute at his final policy meeting, when one of the 10-year tenors saw its yield turn negative
For the first time in years, the euro is poised to offer better returns than its Nordic counterparts. Should money-market wagers materialize, the ECB deposit rate will climb above the Norges Bank key rate for the first time ever and will surpass the Riksbank’s benchmark after five years lagging
Japan’s parliament gave a green light for veteran economics professor Kazuo Ueda to take the helm of the BOJ next month in the first change of governor in a decade
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks declined amid headwinds from the banking sell-off in the US owing to contagion fears related to Silicon Valley Bank in which shares of the group dropped more than 60% during Wall St trade and resulted in the four biggest US banks shedding a total of more than USD 50bln in market cap, while SVB suffered another 20% drop after-hours as funds advised companies to pull out of the lender. ASX 200 was pressured by losses in its largest-weighted financial industry on spillover selling from stateside peers and with the index also hit by weakness in the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 declined with risk sentiment dampened following mixed household spending data and with banking shares further hit after the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy settings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with Hong Kong underperforming amid a tech rout as JD.com shares suffer a double-digit drop despite beating on the bottom line, while property stocks are also in focus as shares in developer Kaisa initially dropped around 40% post-earnings and on return from a 12-month trading halt.
Top Asian News
China’s parliament elected Chinese President Xi for a third term as President and as Central Military Commission Chairperson, while the NPC also elected Zhao Leji as NPC Standing Committee Chairperson and Han Zheng as China’s Vice President.
US is working to close a loophole in the export ban related to China’s Inspur (000977 CH), while it was also reported that Senator Rubio introduced legislation seeking to block tax credits for batteries produced by the planned Ford (F) plant using Chinese technology.
BoJ kept policy settings unchanged, as expected, with rates held at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yields at around 0%, while it kept the band around the yield target at +/-50bps with the decision on YCC made by unanimous vote. BoJ also maintained its forward guidance on interest rates and said Japan’s economy is picking up with the economy expected to recover as the impact of the pandemic and supply constraints fade, while it stated that core consumer inflation is moving around 4% and inflation expectations are heightening.
BoJ’s Kuroda: premature to debate the specifics on the exit from monetary easing, policy rate and balance sheet the main things to consider when the debate begins; exit must be conducted only when 2% inflation is sustainably and stably achieved.
Japan’s upper house approved the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, while it approved the appointment of Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino as Deputy Governors, as expected.
European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, as contagion fears from SVB dents risk sentiment and weighs heavily on banks, SX7P -4.0%. As such, the Banking sector is underperforming with the exception of Utilities; aside from the above, pertinent movers on the upside are limited to Leonardo and Vodafone. Stateside, futures remain under pressure with the ES around 3900 while the NQ is the relative outperformer, and little changed overall, with yields lower amid haven action and as participants prepare for NFP.
Top European News
US President Biden and European Commission President von der Leyen have agreed to launch talks on critical mineral and subsidies, according to a senior US official; expects to discuss strengthening cooperation on Russian sanctions.
UK PM Sunak is to unveil up to GBP 5bln additional cash for defence, according to The Times.
Reuters poll showed all 60 economists surveyed unanimously forecast the ECB to hike the Deposit Rate by 50bps to 3.00% at its meeting next week, while expectations are for the Deposit Rate to peak at 3.75% in Q3 vs prev. forecast of a peak at 3.25% in Q2.
5.6 magnitude earthquake occurs in northern Colombia, via EMSC.
FX
The USD has failed to benefit from the broader risk tone, with the DXY underpressure though yet to test the 105.00 mark to the downside within 105.07-36 parameters.
JPY is the standout laggard, with USD/JPY testing 137.00 from a 135.82 base as hawkish positioning unwound following Kuroda’s last BoJ, where policy parameters were maintained.
At the other end of the spectrum is GBP, with firmer-than-expected headline GDP data and technicals via EUR/GBP assisting to lift Cable above 1.20; specifically, EUR/GBP moved below the 21- & 50-DMA’s of 0.8849 and 0.8838 in relatively quick succession.
Elsewhere, the CHF benefits on haven-flows while peers ex-JPY are generally firmer against the USD pre-NFP; CAD, ahead of its own jobs report, is litle changed in narrow 1.3823-3861 parameters.
Fixed Income
Core and periphery EGBs are benefiting from the glum risk tone; though, the benchmarks have eased from initial extremes as newsflow slows pre-NFP.
Specifically, Bunds are now below 133.00 within 132.37-133.82 ranges; Gilts back towards 101.16 vs 102.00+ best and USTs at 112.00 despite being 13 ticks above the mark earlier.
Amidst this, yields are lower across the curve with action in US yields most pronounced in the belly.
Commodities
Crude and base metals are dented by the deterioration in risk sentiment, with spot gold gleaning some modest upside from this.
Currently, WTI and Brent are just off initial lows within ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl while base metals are, broadly speaking, softer across the board with LME nickel particularly afflicted.
For gold specifically, the yellow metal briefly surmounted its 21-DMA and yesterday’s best at USD 1834/oz and USD 1835/oz respectively, but remains only modestly firmer overall.
Saudi Aramco is to supply full contract volumes of oil to at least four north Asian refiners in April.
North Korean leader Kim oversaw the fire assault drill on Thursday and the drill proved the capability to counter an actual war, while shells were aimed at simulated targets of enemy airport. Furthermore, North Korean leader Kim said the army should be ready to fight at any time citing ‘frantic war preparation moves’ by the enemy, according to KCNA.
US is to hold an informal meeting of UN Security Council members next week regarding human rights abuses in North Korea, according to Reuters.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says that Russia and the US remain in contact over the New START Treaty but progress is not expected from these contacts.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 225,000, prior 517,000
Change in Private Payrolls, est. 215,000, prior 443,000
Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 10,000, prior 19,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
Underemployment Rate, prior 6.6%
Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.4%, prior 62.4%
Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.6, prior 34.7
Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
14:00: Feb. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$263b, prior -$216.6b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
What do you get when you see one of the biggest hiking cycles on record, alongside one of the most inverted yield curves in history, at the same time as seeing one of the biggest tech bubbles bursting in history, coupled with runaway growth in private markets. The answer is that you get nights like yesterday where SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) Financial Group, closed -60.41% lower on the day, wiping out $9.6bn of market value. Although this story was brewing in the background for much of the day, it wasn’t until Europe went home that it exploded on the global macro stage as the S&P 500 went from around flat at that point to close -1.85%, with the KBW US bank index (-7.7%) seeing its worst day since June 2020. Rates saw a huge rally, especially at the front end as we’ll see below.
For background, SVB focuses on servicing emerging to middle-market growth technology companies that are usually backed by venture-capital firms. They announced that they had large losses on security sales and would be undergoing a stock offering to shore up its balance sheet. Silicon Valley Bank’s CEO pointed to the expectation of higher rates and persistent client outflows as to why the lender incurred a one-time $1.8bn loss on a security portfolio sale. Considering the client outflows are also likely driven by higher interest rates, it is not a stretch to say that this episode is emblematic of the higher-for-longer rate regime we appear to be at the start of, as well as inverted curves, and a tech venture capital industry that’s been seeing much tougher times of late. The perfect storm of all the things we’ve been worrying about in this cycle.
Sentiment across markets soured following the spreading of the SVB news. The KBW Bank index saw all of its 24 index member lower on the day with some high-profile names like JPM (-5.41%), BofA (-6.20%) and Citi (-4.10%) also much lower. The index has been down every day this week, with the 4-day performance (-12.31%) also the worst 4-day performance for US banks since June 2020.
We’ll have to see how this story develops but something always breaks hard during or after a Fed hiking cycle. Is this another mini wobble on this front or the start of something bigger? Tough to tell but I would be stunned if there weren’t many more casualties of this boom-and-bust cycle. Don’t forget, we haven’t been in recession yet. Imagine superimposing that on the leveraged world we live in.
It’s fair to say a new payrolls Friday comes at a fraught moment with today’s probably up there with the most closely anticipated in recent times. This is before we see US CPI next Tuesday and what both imply for the March FOMC the following week. With such an outsized beat last month (+517k vs. 189k expected) it’s fair to say no-one has any real idea of what random number will be churned out today. Having said that, both 25bps and 50bps are in play for the FOMC and today and Tuesday will probably be swing factors with Fed Chair Powell stressing that “no decision has been made on this” earlier this week. SVB has to be thrown into the mix too.
As we look forward to the jobs report, the recent momentum behind a 50bp hike actually stalled slightly yesterday even before the SVB story spread. This was driven by the latest round of weekly jobless claims data coming in beneath expectations. In terms of the specifics of the release, initial jobless claims came in at 211k over the week ending March 4 (vs. 195k expected). That’s their highest level so far in 2023, and marks an unusually large surprise on the upside as well, having come in above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. In absolute terms, the surprise of +16k above consensus is also the biggest weekly surprise on the upside in 9 months, so this isn’t the sort of report we see often. There was some weather distortions, with California (+10k) seeing a spike following massive snow storms and making up nearly a third of the increase in NSA claims (+35k). We will see how this evolves over the next couple of prints. And at the same time, there was a negative story from the continuing claims release as well, which came in at 1.718m over the week ending February 25 (vs. 1.660m expected).
With the labour market appearing softer than otherwise expected, investors moved to dial back the amount of rate hikes priced for the months ahead. Looking on an intraday basis, expectations of the terminal rate had been at 5.67% immediately prior to the claims report, but fell to 5.61% shortly after, before ending the day -15.9bps lower at 5.515% for the July meeting after the SVB story. At the highs of the day, there was a 74% chance of a 50bp rate hike later this March, before the risk-off sentiment took the probability of a 50bp hike back down to 56% by the close.
The broader sell-off across risk markets meant that the 2yr yield saw its biggest daily decline since January 6, thanks to a -20.0bps move to 4.87%. Longer-dated Treasuries also advanced, with the 10yr yield down -8.8bps to 3.90% and it even meant that the 2s10s curve steepened for the first time in a week as well, closing +11.4bps at -97.3bps. Both 2 and 10yr yields are down around another -8.5bps overnight.
Back to the S&P 500, every industry group was lower and only 26 index constituents were higher. Sector performance has tilted toward defensive non-cyclicals recently with utilities (-0.84%) and consumer staples (-0.95%) selling off less yesterday than cyclical peers such as materials (-2.54%) and autos (-4.76%). Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.22%) posted a small decline as well, though trading had closed before the deeper US sell-off.
The focus on the US labour market will of course be the main one today with the February jobs report. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that nonfarm payrolls will have grown by +300k in February, in part thanks to mild weather during the survey week. That would be some way above the +225k consensus view, and would keep the unemployment rate at a 53-year low of 3.4%, with a risk it could round down to 3.3% if participation contracts slightly. This report will be very important when it comes to the Fed’s meeting on March 22, as what we’ve heard so far suggests that both 25 and 50bp hikes are still in play. Indeed, Chair Powell went out of his way while in Washington DC on Wednesday to say “I stress that no decision has been made on this”.
On the topic of Washington, President Biden unveiled the administration’s initial 2023 budget proposal yesterday afternoon. The $6.9tr budget proposal is viewed as an opening bid to House GOP members, who are expected to negotiate it down in the upcoming debt ceiling negotiations. The proposal increases funding on an array of government programs, including making Medicare more solvent, lowering prescription drug prices, and trimming the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. The deficit cutting is mostly coming in the form of higher taxes on capital gains (25% on those making over $1mn), a new tax bracket of 39.6% on every dollar made over $400k, a minimum 25% on billionaires, and hiking the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Republicans have already called the proposal a non-starter, with Speaker McCarthy saying that he does “not believe raising taxes is the answer.” There was no House budget plan yet, as Speaker McCarthy said that Republicans wanted to analyse the White House’s budget first. The opening salvo does nothing to lower expectations of a protracted debt ceiling fight.
Returning to the theme of central banks, overnight the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its key interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, while maintaining its YCC policy. In his last meeting as the BOJ’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda made no surprise move and lent support to the central bank’s long-standing ultra-dovish monetary policy. Following the decision, the Japanese yen lost ground, weakening as much as -0.6% against the dollar before cutting losses to trade at 136.53 per dollar as we go to press. Meanwhile, the Japan’s upper house in parliament has formally approved the appointment of Kazuo Ueda to be the next central bank chief in April. Additionally, the parliament also approved Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino as the next BOJ Deputy Governors.
Following a weak handover from Wall Street overnight, Asian stocks are also trading lower. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-2.46%) is sharply lower, wiping out all the YTD gains with the CSI (-1.12%), the Shanghai Composite (-1.15%), the Nikkei (-1.59%) and the KOSPI (-1.05%) also tumbling this morning amid contagion worries related to SVB. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating further losses with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.78%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.54%) quite weak for an overnight session. Bitcoin dropped below the key $20,000 mark in Asia trading hours for the first time since mid-January, reversing its strong 2023 uptrend.
Back in Europe yesterday, it was a fairly quiet day on the whole, with the focus now turning to next Thursday’s ECB meeting. Ahead of that, sovereign bonds rallied for the most part with very modest reductions for yields on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps) and OATs (-0.1pbs), alongside larger reductions at the front end. We will be set for a big rally this morning though given the late news last night. The only ECB official we did hear from yesterday was France’s Villeroy, who said “We will bring inflation toward 2% by the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025 – that’s a commitment, not just a forecast.” Investors have almost fully priced in a 50bps increase at the next meeting (97%), but there’s a bit more doubt over what they’ll do in May still, with 50bps considered the most likely as per our own House View, but with only a 74.7% chance of such a move.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report for February. Other releases include the UK’s GDP for January. And from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
SVB contagion fears weigh on sentiment in pre-NFP trade – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 06:27 AM
European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, as contagion fears from SVB dents risk sentiment and weighs heavily on banks, SX7P -4.0%.
Stateside, futures remain under pressure with the ES around 3900 while the NQ is the relative outperformer, and little changed overall, with yields lower.
USD has failed to benefit from the risk tone while JPY lags as hawkish bets unwind post-BoJ and GBP outperforms after data and aided by EUR/GBP technicals.
Core and periphery EGBs are benefiting from the glum risk tone; though, the benchmarks have eased from initial extremes as newsflow slows pre-NFP.
Crude and base metals are dented by the deterioration in risk sentiment, with spot gold gleaning some modest upside from this.
Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labor Market Reports and ECB’s Lagarde (Note, the ECB is in its quiet period).
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, as contagion fears from SVB dents risk sentiment and weighs heavily on banks, SX7P -4.0%.
As such, the Banking sector is underperforming with the exception of Utilities; aside from the above, pertinent movers on the upside are limited to Leonardo and Vodafone.
Stateside, futures remain under pressure with the ES around 3900 while the NQ is the relative outperformer, and little changed overall, with yields lower amid haven action and as participants prepare for NFP.
Click here for analysis on Silicon Valley Bank “SVB” (SIVB).
Mediatek (2454 TT) February sales -24.3% Y/Y at TWD 30.3bln.
The USD has failed to benefit from the broader risk tone, with the DXY underpressure though yet to test the 105.00 mark to the downside within 105.07-36 parameters.
JPY is the standout laggard, with USD/JPY testing 137.00 from a 135.82 base as hawkish positioning unwound following Kuroda’s last BoJ, where policy parameters were maintained.
At the other end of the spectrum is GBP, with firmer-than-expected headline GDP data and technicals via EUR/GBP assisting to lift Cable above 1.20; specifically, EUR/GBP moved below the 21- & 50-DMA’s of 0.8849 and 0.8838 in relatively quick succession.
Elsewhere, the CHF benefits on haven-flows while peers ex-JPY are generally firmer against the USD pre-NFP; CAD, ahead of its own jobs report, is litle changed in narrow 1.3823-3861 parameters.
Core and periphery EGBs are benefiting from the glum risk tone; though, the benchmarks have eased from initial extremes as newsflow slows pre-NFP.
Specifically, Bunds are now below 133.00 within 132.37-133.82 ranges; Gilts back towards 101.16 vs 102.00+ best and USTs at 112.00 despite being 13 ticks above the mark earlier.
Amidst this, yields are lower across the curve with action in US yields most pronounced in the belly.
Crude and base metals are dented by the deterioration in risk sentiment, with spot gold gleaning some modest upside from this.
Currently, WTI and Brent are just off initial lows within ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl while base metals are, broadly speaking, softer across the board with LME nickel particularly afflicted.
For gold specifically, the yellow metal briefly surmounted its 21-DMA and yesterday’s best at USD 1834/oz and USD 1835/oz respectively, but remains only modestly firmer overall.
Saudi Aramco is to supply full contract volumes of oil to at least four north Asian refiners in April.
US President Biden and European Commission President von der Leyen have agreed to launch talks on critical mineral and subsidies, according to a senior US official; expects to discuss strengthening cooperation on Russian sanctions.
UK PM Sunak is to unveil up to GBP 5bln additional cash for defence, according to The Times.
Reuters poll showed all 60 economists surveyed unanimously forecast the ECB to hike the Deposit Rate by 50bps to 3.00% at its meeting next week, while expectations are for the Deposit Rate to peak at 3.75% in Q3 vs prev. forecast of a peak at 3.25% in Q2.
5.6 magnitude earthquake occurs in northern Colombia, via EMSC.
DATA RECAP
UK GDP Estimate MM (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.5%); 3M/3M (Jan) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%); YY (Jan) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
ONS “Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.2% below its pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020).”
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
White House released the fiscal 2024 budget proposal that projects USD 6.883tln in total spending, USD 5.036tln in revenues and projects annual deficits of over USD 1tln each year through 2033.
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund advised companies to withdraw money from SVB (SIVB) and Y Combinator advised companies to limit SVB exposure, while Coatue Management, USV and Founder Collective also told companies to pull out funds from SVB, according to Bloomberg.
Pershing Square’s Ackman tweeted that a failure of SVB Financial (SIVB) could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash, while he added that if private capital can’t provide a solution, a highly dilutive government preferred bailout should be considered.
US Commerce Secretary says US is keeping an eye on China getting access to US technology and using it in its military.
GEOPOLITICS
North Korean leader Kim oversaw the fire assault drill on Thursday and the drill proved the capability to counter an actual war, while shells were aimed at simulated targets of enemy airport. Furthermore, North Korean leader Kim said the army should be ready to fight at any time citing ‘frantic war preparation moves’ by the enemy, according to KCNA.
US is to hold an informal meeting of UN Security Council members next week regarding human rights abuses in North Korea, according to Reuters.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says that Russia and the US remain in contact over the New START Treaty but progress is not expected from these contacts.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is under pressure as SVB, and the potential for contagion, continues to weigh on risk sentiment ahead of US NFP; currently, Bitcoin is at the lower-end of USD 19.7-20.4k parameters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks declined amid headwinds from the banking sell-off in the US owing to contagion fears related to Silicon Valley Bank in which shares of the group dropped more than 60% during Wall St trade and resulted in the four biggest US banks shedding a total of more than USD 50bln in market cap, while SVB suffered another 20% drop after-hours as funds advised companies to pull out of the lender.
ASX 200 was pressured by losses in its largest-weighted financial industry on spillover selling from stateside peers and with the index also hit by weakness in the commodity-related sectors.
Nikkei 225 declined with risk sentiment dampened following mixed household spending data and with banking shares further hit after the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy settings.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with Hong Kong underperforming amid a tech rout as JD.com shares suffer a double-digit drop despite beating on the bottom line, while property stocks are also in focus as shares in developer Kaisa initially dropped around 40% post-earnings and on return from a 12-month trading halt.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s parliament elected Chinese President Xi for a third term as President and as Central Military Commission Chairperson, while the NPC also elected Zhao Leji as NPC Standing Committee Chairperson and Han Zheng as China’s Vice President.
US is working to close a loophole in the export ban related to China’s Inspur (000977 CH), while it was also reported that Senator Rubio introduced legislation seeking to block tax credits for batteries produced by the planned Ford (F) plant using Chinese technology.
BoJ kept policy settings unchanged, as expected, with rates held at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yields at around 0%, while it kept the band around the yield target at +/-50bps with the decision on YCC made by unanimous vote.BoJ also maintained its forward guidance on interest rates and said Japan’s economy is picking up with the economy expected to recover as the impact of the pandemic and supply constraints fade, while it stated that core consumer inflation is moving around 4% and inflation expectations are heightening.
BoJ’s Kuroda: premature to debate the specifics on the exit from monetary easing, policy rate and balance sheet the main things to consider when the debate begins; exit must be conducted only when 2% inflation is sustainably and stably achieved.
Japan’s upper house approved the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, while it approved the appointment of Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino as Deputy Governors, as expected.
DATA RECAP
Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jan) 2.7% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.1%); YY (Jan) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -1.3%)
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Feb) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.0%); YY (Feb) 8.2% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 9.5%)
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.02 PTS OR 1.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 605.82 PTS OR 3.04% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 479.18% PTS OR 1.67% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 2.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9518//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9573// /Oil DOWN TO 75.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.86 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/RUSSIA//USA
The Pentagon now alleges that Russia is supplying fuel to China for the purpose of aiding their nuclear warheads
(zerohedge)
Pentagon Alleges Russia Supplying Fuel For Chinese Nuclear Warheads
THURSDAY, MAR 09, 2023 – 10:00 PM
The Pentagon has voiced concern over “troubling” reports of increasing cooperation between Russia and China on Beijing’s efforts to build new nuclear warheads. On Wednesday and Thursday the US Department of Defense (DOD) circulated the claims to the point of making an official accusation.
“It’s very troubling to see Russia and China cooperating on this,” John F. Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy, said before a Wednesday House Armed Services’ strategic forces subcommittee hearing. “They may have talking points around it, but there’s no getting around the fact that breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons. So I think the [Defense] Department is concerned. And of course, it matches our concerns about China’s increased expansion of its nuclear forces as well, because you need more plutonium for more weapons,” Plumb added. However, as of Thursday the DOD still seemed confused as to precisely what’s being alleged here…
During the testimony Plumb referenced China diversifying its high tech weapons arsenal with help from Moscow, including high-altitude surveillance balloons and even nuclear-tipped hypersonic missiles.
Speaking on his area of expertise, Plumb said, “China is engaged in a significant and fast-paced expansion and diversification of its nuclear forces. Also, Russia and China view space as a warfighting domain.”
Congress members called for the administration to disrupt the weapons technology sharing relationship between China and Russia:
Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Doug Lamborn said he hoped the Biden administration would take steps to halt the Rosatom uranium transfers.
“I’m hopeful that we will see a comprehensive strategy from the administration to break this relationship — and ideally shatter Rosatom,” the Colorado Republican said.
The accusations come dangerously at a moment the New START arms treaty has practically collapsed, after Moscow pulled out last month, with Putin declaring his country is suspending participation.
On the issue of the defunct nuclear treaty, Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Doug Lamborn of Colorado said, “It is curious that we provide Russia with this benefit under the treaty when Russia is no longer reciprocating” – in reference to the exchange of treaty-required nuclear information.
Increasingly Washington hawks are viewing the Russian and China ‘threats’ as intertwined. Just at a point the Ukraine war recently hit the one-year mark, the US administration really dialed up the pressure on Beijing, also in the context of the ‘spy balloon’ incidents.
The China-Russia relationship has also been under the microscope given US intelligence allegations Beijing leadership is mulling transferring weapons to Russia. Last Sunday, for example, Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) told NBC’s Meet the Press that if this happened, there would be an “inexhaustible source of weapons” for Russia to use in its ongoing offensive against Ukraine.
“The problem with China entering this is because you’ve got the West giving weapons to Ukraine,” Turner said. “You’ve got Russia depleting their stores. We obviously — the West together have an ability to impact Ukraine greater than Russia alone does.”
All of this adds color to these current alarmist “reports say” accusations and headlines over plutonium and uranium being transferred to China. It’s all geared toward piling the pressure on Beijing over its ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UK/
Yesterday a French minister was charged for criticizing certain immigration people. Today a British minister faces new charges under the counter
terrorism laws for criticizing a trans woman
(Turley)
British Minister Faces New Charges Under Counter-Terrorism Laws For Criticizing A Trans Woman
In the meantime, a Christian street preacher was reportedly facing criminal charges in the United Kingdom for declaring that a trans woman was really a “gentleman” and a “man in woman’s clothing.”
The counter-terrorism unit arrested David McConnell, a Christian preacher who was already convicted last year for “harassment” in the incident last year.
For the earlier offense, McConnell was sentenced to a 12-month community order with 80 hours unpaid work.
However, according to the Daily Mail, he was also reported to the counter-terrorism unit and, according to McConnell’s probation officer, he is “viewed [as] persistently and illegally espousing an extreme point of view” with his preaching.
That is all that it takes now in the UK and most of Europe today: “an extreme point of view.”
So now he is akin to a terrorist for exercising free speech.
This case is reminiscent of the “toxic ideology” ruling in the Brock case.
While most of us find Brock’s views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room.
Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement: “I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.”
Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:
“[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…”
Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and “there was no evidence of disseminating to others,” he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views.
After the sentencing Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because he “showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation….We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security.”
“Toxic ideology” also appears to be the target in Ireland with the recently proposed Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) law. It would criminalize the possession of material deemed hateful. The law is a free speech nightmare. The law makes it a crime of “possession of harmful material” as well as “condoning, denying or grossly trivialising genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes against peace.” The law expressly states the intent to combat “forms and expressions of racism and xenophobia by means of criminal law.”
What is so striking about the law is that it allows for the prosecution of citizens for “preparing or possessing material likely to incite violence or hatred against persons on account of their protected characteristics.”
That could sweep deeply into not just political but literary expression.
Once you start as a government to criminalize speech, you end up on a slippery slope of censorship. What constitutes hate speech or “malicious communications” remains a highly subjective matter and we have seen a steady expansion of prohibited terms and words and gestures. We recently discussed a woman arrested for praying to herself near an abortion clinic.
Free speech is in a free fall in the West. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, and other Western powers have plunged headlong into censorship and speech crimes. This case is a sad demonstration of the loss of a critical core of constituents who demand the protection of this core liberty. Conversely, those who embrace censorship and criminalization today are blissfully content that their own views will never be deemed “toxic” or “extreme.” It is the siren’s call of censorship and more citizens are yielding to the temptation to silence (rather than debate) those with opposing views.
END
END
end
5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA/
A near at Zaporizhia nuclear plant
Another Near-Miss At Zaporizhia Nuclear Plant: ‘One Day Our Luck Will Run Out’
The largest nuclear energy plant in Europe, located in southern Ukraine, lost all off-site power for the sixth time in a year as Russian forces carried out a massive missile attack on Thursday, once again raising fears of a nuclear catastrophe with continent-wide implications.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, expressed dismay over the repeated near-misses at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and said he is “astonished by the complacency” in the face of such a threat.
“What are we doing? How can we sit here in this room this morning and allow this to happen? This cannot go on,” Grossi said in a statement to the IAEA Board of Governors. “Each time we are rolling a dice. And if we allow this to continue time after time then one day our luck will run out. I call on everyone in this room today and elsewhere—we must commit to protect the safety and security of the plant. And we need to commit now.”
Grossi noted that Thursday marked the first time since November that the nuclear plant has lost all off-site power, sparking the activation of emergency diesel generators. The IAEA chief said there is enough diesel at the facility to power it for just over two weeks.
A constant supply of power to the plant is necessary to prevent a nuclear meltdown. “This is the sixth time—let me say it again, this is the sixth time—that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has lost all off-site power and has had to operate in this emergency mode,” Grossi said. “Let me remind you—this is the largest nuclear power station in Europe.”
Russian forces currently control the nuclear facility, which IAEA inspectors visited in September following months of grave safety concerns. In the wake of the trip, the United Nations agency issued a report warning that “any further escalation affecting the six-reactor plant could lead to a severe nuclear accident with potentially grave radiological consequences for human health and the environment in Ukraine and elsewhere.”
Last March, Greenpeace released an analysis similarly cautioning that a Zaporizhzhia disaster could “render vast areas of the European continent, including Russia, uninhabitable for decades.”
Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy operator, told the Associated Press on Thursday that the power supply to Zaporizhzhiacan be restored “within a day or two” and that emergency fixes to a disconnected power line are underway.
Energoatom has accused the Russian forces occupying the plant of compromising its physical integrity. Citing the nuclear energy firm, The New York Times reported earlier this week that “Russian soldiers have recently set up machine guns on the grounds of the plant, placed military equipment in engine rooms, covered windows with sandbags, and even carried out indoor welding work that has set off fire alarms.”
“Those actions come on top of damage from shelling last summer, including to an area where spent nuclear fuel is stored; disruptions to the plant’s management in power struggles with Russian occupiers; and the shutdown of the complex’s six reactors,” the Times noted.
During Thursday’s barrage, Russia reportedly launched more than 80 missiles in the direction of Ukrainian cities—dozens of which were intercepted, according to Ukrainian officials. AP reported that “the Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were in retaliation for a recent incursion into the Bryansk region of western Russia by what Moscow claimed were Ukrainian saboteurs. Ukraine denied the claim and warned that Moscow could use the allegations to justify stepping up its own assaults.”
The bombardment came as the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the war in the near future appeared virtually nonexistent after more than a year of deadly fighting, with Russia continuing its assault on Ukraine while western governments—principally the United States—continue to pump weapons into the war zone.
It is likely Poland will take the Western part, west of Kiev … Zelensky is on board with the idea and Polish industry has been investing there at cheap prices for some time, with natural hand offs to Zelensky. Another 20-40, 000 dead and an equal number wounded never to return to a battlefield should do it. And there is no particular hurry on the part of Russia. By autumn what remains of current Ukrainian will be surprising little.
Not good but how long will this détente last? They have been enemies for centuries, the Shias vs the Sunnis!
Archrivals Iran & Saudi Arabia Restore Ties In China-Brokered Deal
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 09:16 AM
Iran and Saudi Arabia announced that the two longtime rivals and enemies are restoring diplomatic relations following years of tensions, which involved each side charging the other with state-sponsored terrorism. Crucially, China helped see the deal through and hosted meetings of the two sides in Beijing.
NBC describes that “The deal, which will see the two countries reopen embassies in each other’s capitals, was sealed during a meeting in China — a boost to Beijing’s efforts to rival the United States as a broker on the global stage.” Indeed this is the message China is quick to emphasize:
SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN TALK IN BEIJING IS VICTORY OF PEACE: WANG YI
A joint communique confirming the restoration of relations from was issued by Riyadh, Tehran, and Beijing – and was first published in state-run Saudi Press Agency (SPA). The statement emphasizes “a shared desire to resolve the disagreements between them through dialogue and diplomacy, and in light of their brotherly ties.”
It spells out that the next step is for foreign ministers from both countries to “meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations.”
Representing the Iranian side in the Beijing talks was Ali Shamkhani, a close adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni. On the other side was Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, with the two engaging in intense negotiations.
Not only has the regional rivalry, which intensified most during the decade of the proxy war in Syria which began in 2011, been set amid a centuries-long divide over correct interpretation of Islam (Shia Iran vs. Sunni Saudi Arabia), but it has also spilled over in places like Yemen, scene of another grinding proxy war which pit Shia rebels against a Saudi-backed government.
The Saudis and Iranians also clash in supporting rival political factions inside Lebanon, with Tehran being the Shia paramilitary group Hezbollah’s biggest backer. For these reasons, accusations of supporting terrorism have been frequently hurled back-and-forth over the years. Iranian state media, for example, has long charged the Saudis with being a prime covert backer of the Islamic State (ISIS) in their drive to overthrow President Assad in Syria.
The detente is also a surprise given the warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, based on attempts to bring Riyadh into the Abraham Accords. Very likely, this new agreement which was helped along by China will delay any possibility of the Saudis and Israelis establishing official relations on an accelerated timeline.
Riyadh, March 10, 2023, SPA — In response to the noble initiative of His Excellency President Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, of China’s support for developing good neighborly relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran;
And based on the agreement between His Excellency President Xi Jinping and the leaderships in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, whereby the People’s Republic of China would host and sponsor talks between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran; Proceeding from their shared desire to resolve the disagreements between them through dialogue and diplomacy, and in light of their brotherly ties;
Adhering to the principles and objectives of Charters of the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and International conventions and norms;
The delegations from the two countries held talks during the period 6-10 March 2023 in Beijing – the delegation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia headed by His Excellency Dr. Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, Minister of State, Member of the Council of Ministers, and National Security Advisor, and the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran headed by His Excellency Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The Saudi and Iranian sides expressed their appreciation and gratitude to the Republic of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for hosting rounds of dialogue that took place between both sides during the years 2021-2022. The two sides also expressed their appreciation and gratitude to the leadership and government of the People’s Republic of China for hosting and sponsoring the talks, and the efforts it placed towards its success.
The three countries announce that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, that includes an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months, and the agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states. They also agreed that the ministers of foreign affairs of both countries shall meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations. They also agreed to implement the Security Cooperation Agreement between them, which was signed on 22/1/1422 (H), corresponding to 17/4/2001, and the General Agreement for Cooperation in the Fields of Economy, Trade, Investment, Technology, Science, Culture, Sports, and Youth, which was signed on 2/2/1419 (H), corresponding to 27/5/1998.
The three countries expressed their keenness to exert all efforts towards enhancing regional and international peace and security.
Issued in Beijing on 10 March 2023. For the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Shamkhani For the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban Minister of State, Member of the Council of Ministers, and National Security Advisor For the People’s Republic of China Wang Yi Member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Director of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee –SPA
6.GLOBAL ISSUES/COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
The damage of the vaccines is now coming out in full bloom!
At first slowly but in recent weeks with seemingly gathering pace, two trends have emerged.
On the one hand, many of the core claims behind lockdowns, masks, and vaccines are unravelling and the prevailing narrative has been in retreat on all three fronts.
But there is still a long way to go, as indicated by the cussed refusal of the Biden administration to let Novak Djokovic play at Indian Wells.
On the other hand, the explosive lockdown files in the UK have blown apart the official narrative. We the sceptics were right in our dark suspicions of the motives, scientific basis, and evidence behind government decisions, but even we did not fully grasp just how venal, evil, and utterly contemptuous of their citizens some of the bastards in charge of our health, lives, livelihoods, and children’s future were. “Hell is empty, And all the devils are here” (Shakespeare, The Tempest) indeed. They will have to build a new circle of hell to accommodate all the perpetrators of evil let loose upon the world since 2020.
A mistake is when you spill coffee or take the wrong exit ramp off the highway. Lockdown was a policy pushed hard by politicians and health chiefs even against scientific dissent and substantial public opposition, using tools from every tyrants’ playbook of disinformation and lies whilst attacking and censoring truth. The depth of public opposition went unrecognized because the fear-peddling media colluded in not reporting on protests.
Genuine mistakes were few and are forgivable. Most were deliberate distortions of reality, outright falsehoods, and a systematic campaign to terrorize people into compliance with arbitrary diktats interspersed with efforts to vilify, silence, and cancel all critics by using the full powers of the state to co-opt, bribe, and bully. All in pursuit of the most maddening public policy insanity of modern times because it ignored existing canons of pandemic planning in blind panic just when calm was most needed. To call lockdown a mistake is to trivialize the shock to society.
Before coming to that, a few preliminary observations to summarize where we are at.
What is Now Known and Generally but Not Universally Admitted
Covid is now endemic. It will circulate throughout the world and keep returning with mutating variants. People who have been infected and/or vaccinated can contract and transmit it. Consequently we have little choice but to learn to live with it. What is important is to make sure the right policy lessons are learnt so that never again, neither for a novel coronavirus nor for any other infectious disease, do we go down the path of public policy insanity to lock up an entire city or country with the discovery of 1-10 cases and bring all social, cultural and economic activity to a shuddering halt – or give total power and control to sociopaths and psychopaths.
Meanwhile what is particularly striking is just how many suspicions voiced by sceptics from early 2020 onwards and mocked as conspiracy theories have turned into plausible claims and accepted facts:
The virus may have originated in the laboratory of the Wuhan Institute of Virology;
Covid modeling was dodgy and dressed up outliers as reasonable case scenarios;
Lockdowns don’t work;
Lockdowns kill through perverse consequences and inflict other damaging harms, including interruptions to critical life-saving children’s immunization campaigns in developing countries;
School closures are particularly bad policy. They did not curb transmission but they did cause long-term harm to children’s education, development and emotional well-being;
Masks are ineffective. They stop neither infection nor transmission;
Infection confers natural immunity at least as effective as vaccination;
Covid vaccines do not stop infection, hospitalization, or even death;
Covid vaccines do not stop transmission;
The safety of vaccines using new technology had not been definitively established, neither for the short term nor for the long term;
Vaccine harms are real and substantial but safety signals have been summarily dismissed and ignored;
mRNA vaccines are not confined to the arm but spread rapidly to other parts, including reproductive organs, with potentially adverse consequences for fertility and births;
The harm-benefit equation of vaccines is, like the disease burden itself, steeply age-differentiated. Healthy young people did not need either initial or booster doses;
Vaccine mandates can fuel cross-vaccine hesitancy;
Suppression of sceptical and dissenting voices will lessen trust in public health officials, experts and institutions, and possibly also in scientists more generally;
Estimates of “Long Covid” were inflated (CDC estimate of 20 percent of Covid infections against UK study’s estimate of 3 percent) by using generalized, non-specific symptoms like mild fatigue and weakness;
Health policy interventions involve policy trade-offs just like all other policy choices. Cost-benefit analysis is therefore an essential prerequisite, not an optional add-on.
The Lockdown Files
The last three years have seen lives lost in the millions with tens of millions more yet to be accounted for in the coming years, civilized lifestyles destroyed, previously inviolate freedoms shredded, civil liberties turned into privileges to be granted on the whim of bureaucrats, law enforcement officers corrupted into street thugs brutalizing the very people they are sworn to serve and protect, businesses destroyed, economies wrecked, bodily integrity violated.
The Lockdown Files, a treasure trove of over 100,000 WhatsApp messages in real time between all the principal policymakers on Covid in England while Matt Hancock was the Secretary of Health (2020–26 June 2021), offer an unparalleled and gripping window into the amoral and cynical arrogance circulating in the corridors of power. The daily drip-feed of revelations in the Telegraph is akin to watching with fascinated horror a slow-motion train wreck. Schadenfreude doesn’t come any more delicious.
The files are littered with flippant remarks, mocking comments and contempt for citizens. Among the revelations about the Johnson government:
The government knew there was no “robust rationale” for including children in the “rule of six” (the maximum number of people who could meet at any given time), but backed the controversial policy anyway.
Facemasks were introduced in secondary schools in England after Johnson was told it was “not worth an argument” with Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon over the issue, despite England’s Chief Medical Officer (CMO) Chris Whitty saying there were “no very strong reasons” to do so. In other words, political calculations were knowingly prioritized over schoolchildren’s needs.
Consultants were paid over £1 million a day for more than a year on the totally ineffectual test and trace program, turning the scheme into the embezzlement of public funds to line private pockets.
We now know just how punch drunk on tyranny the political, bureaucratic, scientific, and journalist class was during the pandemic. The ruling elites, when liberated from democratic accountability and media scrutiny, morphed seamlessly into morally cavalier and inhumane petty tyrants. Averse to alternative ways of thinking outside the echo chamber, they developed neuralgia to any idea that might challenge lockdown fanaticism.
Lockdown sceptics like the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) who argued for the elderly and frail to be protected were demonized as dangerous “Covid deniers” who wanted to “let it rip” in a callous and cruel strategy of herd immunity. But government officials whose policies had a direct, catastrophic impact on the health of the elderly and frail were treated as heroes and unimpeachable voices of moral authority.
Sociopath, Psychopath, or Both?
Among the revelations about Hancock:
More than 40,000 residents of care homes in England died with Covid. Hancock was advised by Whitty in April 2020 to test everyone entering the care homes. He rejected the advice because testing capacity was limited and, for political (PR) reasons, he prioritized reaching his grandiose, self-imposed target of 100,000 daily tests in the lower risk general community over protecting the care home residents, despite repeated claims of having thrown a “protective ring” around the homes. Patients discharged into care homes from hospitals were tested but not those coming in from the community. That is, “focussed protection” of the GBD was the right way to go. Instead Hancock rubbished the GBD and belittled its three eminent epidemiologist authors.
Social care minister Helen Whateley told Hancock that stopping visits to care homes by spouses was “inhumane” and risked the elderly residents “just giving up” after prolonged isolation, but he refused to budge.
He rejected advice in November 2020 to shift from 14-day Covid quarantine for people who had been in close contact with anyone infected, to five days of testing because it would “imply we’ve been getting it wrong.” Talk of a sunk cost fallacy. Over 20 million people in total were told to self-isolate even if they had no symptoms. God I feel vindicated for refusing flatly to join Australia’s clunky test and trace program.
In a discussion on how to ensure the public complied with ever-changing lockdown restrictions, Hancock suggested “We frighten the pants off everyone” and Project Fear was born. Simon Case, Britain’s most senior civil servant, said the “fear/guilt factor” was “vital” in “ramping up the messaging” during the third lockdown in January 2021.
Informed of the emergence of the alpha/Kent variant in December 2020, Hancock and his aides canvassed the ideal time to “deploy” the new variant in order to sustain public fear of the virus to ensure continued compliance with directives.
A member of his team asked if they could “lock up” Nigel Farage after he tweeted a video of himself at a pub in Kent, because the troublesome politician was such a thorn in the government’s side.
Hancock and Case mocked people forced to isolate in quarantine hotels, joking about returning travelers being “locked up” in “shoe box” rooms. Case wished he could “see some of the faces of people coming out of first class and into a premier inn shoe box.” Informed by Hancock that 149 people had entered “Quarantine Hotels due to their own free will,” Case replied: “Hilarious.”
He told other ministers to “get heavy with the police” to enforce lockdown restrictions and then boasted that “The plod got their marching orders.” This raises questions about the legality of interfering with the operational instructions of police.
Intoxicated by his own brilliance and infallibility, Hancock attacked vaccine czar Dame Kate Bingham, the chief of the National Health Service (NHS) Lord Stevens, and CEO of the Wellcome Trust (and now top scientist at the WHO) Sir Jeremy Farrar.
He schemed with his aides, with the help of a secret spreadsheet, to deny rebellious party MPs funding for pet projects in their constituencies if they did not fall in line, including a new centre for disabled children and adults.
I can relate therefore to this online comment on one of these stories in the Telegraph: “Hancock was intellectually stunted pondlife before the pandemic and still is now, but with more slime and a bit of a stink to him.” Or, to put it in more technical language: Hancock comes across as an ego-driven total f…wit.
The state criminalized quotidian activities like sitting on a bench in the park, walking on the beach and meeting with extended family. Public health messaging was weaponized to normalize and sacralize spirit-sapping levels of social isolation. Even East Germany’s Stasi did not stop the elderly from hugging their grandchildren. Elderly patients were forced to die alone and surviving family members were banned from saying final farewells and denied the solace of a full funeral.
Hancock was able to get away with exercising his lust for power because his prime minister, Boris Johnson, proved to be lazy, weak, and vacillating. The vivid description of Johnson by fired top aide Dominic Cummings – an out of control “shopping trolley” lurching from side to side in a supermarket aisle, depending on who he last talked to – has been amply validated by the leaked files. The instinctual libertarian rapidly morphed from a lockdown sceptic into a zealot.
Lessons
The Lockdown Files confirm that politics informed the policymakers in most of the key decisions on how to manage the pandemic. Accordingly, while medical specialists can debate the technical details of different medical approaches, policy specialists should be among the lead assessors in evaluating the justifications for and results and effectiveness of the policy interventions.
The existing frameworks, processes and institutional safeguards under which liberal democracies operated until 2020 had ensured expanding freedoms, growing prosperity, an enviable lifestyle, quality of life and educational and health outcomes without precedent in human history. Abandoning them in favour of a tightly centralized small group of decision-makers liberated from any external scrutiny, contestability, and accountability produced both a dysfunctional process and suboptimal outcomes: very modest gains for much long-lasting pain.
The sooner we return to the conviction that good process ensures better long-term outcomes and acts as a check against suboptimal outcomes alongside curbs on abuses of power and wastage of public funds, the better.
Interventions rooted in panic, driven by political machinations, and using all the levers of state power to terrify citizens and muzzle critics in the end needlessly killed massive numbers of the most vulnerable while putting the vast low-risk majority under house arrest. The benefits are questionable but the harms are increasingly obvious. The Johnson government in general and Hancock in particular revalidate Lord Acton’s astute observation that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
They weren’t following the science but Hancock’s ego and career ambitions. He exploited Johnson’s “stonking” laziness and shallowness. The Lockdown Files reveal a government gone rogue that viewed and treated the people as enemies. The UK, US, and Australia don’t need an inquiry strung out over years, focused on small details to the neglect of the big picture, with the tame conclusion that lessons will be learnt but blame cannot be apportioned. Instead we need criminal charges, and the sooner the better.
Britain’s top civil servant acted more like a partisan political hack than an apolitical, neutral and loyal-to-the-elected-government of the day civil servant. Case’s bias, immaturity, poor judgment, and unwillingness to support the PM with accurate, balanced, and impartial information were such as to warrant instant sacking. His hubris is such that he is yet to submit his resignation despite the publication of these appalling exchanges with Hancock who had effectively taken over the government.
The fact that as the “absolutely cringe-worthy” revelations came tumbling out, PM Rishi Sunak insisted Case has his confidence reflects poorly on Sunak’s judgment.
Flawed process produced bad outcomes.
In a modern-day version of sacrificing virgins to appease the viral gods, the young have lost many more years of their life to buy a few more lonely, miserable months for the infirm old.
If the vast sums thrown at Covid had been redirected to the leading killer diseases and upgrades to public health infrastructure, using the standard quality-adjusted life years (QALY) metric, many million deaths would have been averted around the world over the coming decades.
If we fail to heed the lessons of the last three years, we will indeed be condemned to repeat them, not just for new pandemics of infectious diseases but also for other crises like the “climate emergency.”
end
This will be quite a case…
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Mother Sues Doctor Who Allegedly Administered COVID-19 Vaccines To Children Without Consent
A doctor violated the law by administering COVID-19 vaccines to children without consent, according to a new lawsuit.
Dr. Janine Rethy, chief of community pediatrics at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital, is being accused of holding two children in a room until she convinced them to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
The minors are both children of NaTonya McNeil, a Washington resident who brought the suit in D.C. Superior Court.
“Ms. McNeil’s two minor children were held in a room by Defendant until she overcame their will and forcibly vaccinated them while physically preventing them from consulting with their mother, who was right outside the room,” the 9-page suit states.
The children were also allegedly provided with “false and fraudulent information” in order to get their purported consent to administer the vaccines.
Rethy told the kids that they had to get a COVID-19 vaccine to attend school and that they could not legally decline vaccination, according to the filing.
The kids gave in when given the false information.
Rethy and MedStar did not respond to requests for comment.
Annual Check-Ups
McNeil took the children to Rethy for annual physical examinations on Sept. 2, 2022.
The location was the Georgetown Kids Mobile Medical Clinic/Ronald McDonald Care Mobile, which is operated by the Georgetown University Hospital, at a recreation center. Rethy is director of the mobile clinic.
McNeil waited outside with her 1-year-old child while the two other kids went inside. But she called her daughter’s cell phone soon after and asked to speak with the doctor. McNeil told Rethy she was outside and available if needed to answer questions or provide information.
Rethy never asked McNeil about any vaccinations, according to the suit.
The 16-year-old child, who attends Dunbar High School, went first. Rethy “came at me with a needle,” the girl was quoted as saying. Rethy, asked what the injection was, said it was a COVID-19 vaccine. The minor said she did not want the shot.
“Dr. Rethy told K.M. that the injection was required for her to attend school, and then injected the needle,” the suit states. The younger child, 14, “also reluctantly agreed to accept the injection after seeing his sister be injected, although he had repeatedly refused COVID-19 injections previously as well.”
“Both children were very upset and angry that they had been coerced into being injected,” the filing states.
Rethy also injected the children with a meningococcal vaccine.
Neither Rethy nor clinic staff provided information about the vaccinations to McNeil or the children, the suit says. Rethy did speak with McNeil, but only told her she was going to call a prescription for the asthma of one of the children.
The Biden administration is considering the mass vaccination of the poultry population in response to an ongoing outbreak of avian flu that has killed off millions of birds and has helped spike egg and poultry costs.
There are some existing vaccines for farm birds, but U.S. Agriculture Department spokesman Mike Stepien told The New York Times that no vaccination effort has been authorized and the department is unsure if the existing vaccines will be effective against the current strain of H5N1 bird flu. Erica Spackman, a researcher for the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service, told the newspaper that scientists are researching new vaccine candidates to help curb the ongoing bird flu outbreak.
Thus far, the Biden administration has made no decision to impose a poultry vaccine mandate.
“There are a range of options the United States regularly considers when there is any outbreak that could affect the security and safety of the United States’ food supply,” the White House National Security Council told news outlets on Monday. “Right now, we are focused on promoting and enhancing high-impact biosafety practices and procedures.”
Instead of a bird flu vaccine program, many farmers have instead been culling millions of their livestock. At least 52.3 million birds were killed off throughout the United States in 2022.
“The Department of Agriculture continues to respond quickly whenever the virus is detected among bird populations,” the National Security Council said on Monday.
Bird flu can spread to humans through direct contact between a person and a farm bird or between a person and a contaminated surface. Bird flu contaminants can also spread through droplets or dust particles that a farm bird could kick up when it flaps its wings.
For now, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention assesses that the risk of H5N1 spreading to humans remains low. That said, disease researchers have heightened concerns over growing numbers of infections among wild birds and some mammal species and the possibility the virus could evolve to spread more easily between people.
Vaccine Program Would Have Trade-Offs
Vaccinating millions of farm birds could be a complicated endeavor, and while a vaccine program may be able to slow or prevent the spread of the bird flu, it could also trigger trade bans.
“We don’t have any assurance that any of our trading partners would accept our products if we began vaccinating any birds,” Julie Gauthier, the USDA veterinary service’s assistant director for poultry health, told Lancaster Farming in October.
on Malone; serious questions; the very Freedom movement that we started to ensure no censoring, is CENSORING, hell, they are trying it with me; but I am about to go to media war with them
Bannon: “Breggin is one of the most important thought leaders in this movement”. Bannon sees the game, the destructive game, the filth so he flipped them the bird as the adult running things. Huge love for that and more to come. Breggin has done more for America and the movement than these ‘little’ Johnny come latelys pimping on donor money, raping the p…
a day ago · 84 likes · 25 comments · Dr. Paul Alexander
Big praise for Bannon. You see he showed them, dont bring your EFF in donors shit around me threatening me with that bull, dont try to silence me and tell me who to interview. Bannon is the man, he runs things up in his house.
I love it, he did the right thing. The move to destroy Breggin will fall flat, Breggin is an EFF in powerhouse beast. The Freedom movement now has become a system of cliques and groups within the main group, frauds too, not all, but many, all sucking and clucking around over money, donors and the donors flex and play the game of silencing too. Imagine that, we have donors flexing with their money, causing the silencing of serious key people in the freedom movement. I will have none of it. I am about to join Breggin etc. in exposing the filth of all of this.
The people were hurt by this COVID fraud and the freedom movement started by Risch and McCullough and folk like me, is now threatened by leaches and grifters and just bad people who enrich themselves and decide who within the movement will get air time and promote. It is now threatened. Because of money hungry leaches. All these doctors and scientists running around with their fake vaccine cards playing a dangerous game promoting and protecting grifters and people who have caused harms themselves.
Stop the insanity, understand who the enemy is, understand how serious this fight is, stop the social games now and the money fleecing…there is a reason why folk like Yeadon, Vanden Bossche, Risch, Kulldorff, Wolf, McCullough, Oskoui, Tenenbaum remain serious people to me, for these are a few who have stood back and only speak when they have too…these are people you listen to. The rest, many in the rest, not all, but many, first ask yourself and figure out ‘who is paying them’ and then consider the grifting and grafting tripe they spew.
Thanks you Mr. John Leake for your excellent reporting and update on this (see stack).
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘a plastic surgeon who was recently indicted by a federal grand jury in Utah for conspiracy to defraud the US; conspiracy to convert, sell, convey, and dispose of government property; and conversion, sale, conveyance, and disposal of government property and aiding and abetting.
By JOHN LEAKE A week ago I reported the story of Dr. Kirk Moore—a plastic surgeon who was recently indicted by a federal grand jury in Utah for conspiracy to defraud the US; conspiracy to convert, sell, convey, and dispose of government property; and conversion, sale, conveyance, and disposal of government property and aiding and abetting…
listen how he is on tape lying, he lied, what they do is put muscle on the states so they MUST go along; he said he did not mandate yet in this tape he is basically imposing this; like COVID donors
Good Morning! — This post is too long for email! — If viewing from email please click ‘view online’ at the top of the email or click here. You can also download the Substack app! (not sponsored)
Former CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield testified to Congress before the House Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. He confirmed the virus came from Wuhan, believes gain-of-function research caused the greatest pandemic in history and says Fauci shut him out of virus-origin discussions.
COVID-19 more likely was the result of a lab leak:
Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to believe and I still believe today that it indicates that COVID-19 more likely was the result of an accidental lab leak than a result of a natural spillover event.
WARNING: Big Tech Banks Collapsing! Infection Spreading to Other SectorsMarch 9, 2023 4:30 pmThe collapse of the banking industry has started, with FDIC-insured Big Tech Silvergate Bank announcing yesterday they were liquidating their assets and closing down. Silicon Valley Bank also announced yesterday that they have lost $10 billion, while trying to reassure depositors to just “stay calm,” suggesting that their collapse is also probably imminent. I don’t think there has been a more significant news event in the financial sector since the financial crisis of 2008, and yet at the time of my publishing this article, none of the corporate media is treating this as a headline story, unless it is a publication that focuses only on financial news. This is the beginning of the storm that should have happened last year after FTX blew up, and probably did, but the infection that I have been calling The Big Tech Crash that started in 2022 has only just now begun to reveal how serious this crisis is, which can no longer be hidden from the public as the bank failures have now begun. Bank runs that began last year, are only going to significantly increase in the days and weeks ahead. And this infection is not confined to Big Tech and their banks, but is spreading fast to other sectors of the economy.Read More…BREAKING: Silicon Valley Bank Run has Reportedly Started – Website DownMarch 9, 2023 5:20 pmThe news is moving fast now, with the report of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) being in trouble, after Silvergate Bank announced yesterday that they were liquidating their assets and shutting down. A bank run has apparently just started at SVB, with reports that people cannot access their funds, and that their website is down. This is a developing story…Read More…Four biggest US Banks Lost $52 BILLION in Valuation Today as Dow drops 540 pointsMarch 9, 2023 11:13 pmThe corporate media is now widely reporting on this, and the entire banking sector took a huge hit today, losing $billions in valuation, $52 billion lost just with the four largest banks in the U.S. Bank runs and bank failures are no longer an “if,” but simply “when.” Which ones are next?Read More…
Forget about geopolitics for once; or rather, don’t forget about it, but it isn’t the prime focus even as the Wall Steet Journal says ‘US, China plunge further into a spiral of hostility’.
Forget about politics, despite a headline-grabbing White House budget that won’t pass Congress, and how some in Congress just argued against how we used to think journalism should be done.
Forget about the climate, as Oilprice.com argues ‘Investors Start To Realize The Energy Transition Will Take Decades’, and that: “According to analysts, there is a broader understanding among the public and governments that until a clean energy system is ready, oil and gas will continue to play a prominent role in global energy supply and, like it or not, we are stuck with fossil fuels for our current energy needs. Right now, fossil fuels account for just over 80% of global energy supply.” Which implies messier geopolitics and politics, and higher inflation.
Forget about economic data like US initial claims data spiking to 211K, the highest since….. December, when it last didn’t mean anything.
Focus instead on the sudden sell-off in the US banking sector, which has seen a massive bull steepening of its yield curve and a serious reappraisal of the odds that the Great Pivot in the Sky may bring forth the abundance of riches that it usually does when the correct correction ceremony is performed.
The problems at the individual US banks involved vary. The broader problem echoes what we saw in the UK under Truss, and what we will see in other places as rates rise. And if they don’t, as China’s local governments sell their own land to themselves to try to remain solvent. What you see is a series of investments into assets –crypto and bonds in the West, and property in China)– collapsing in value as rates rise, or under their own weight even if rates don’t. It’s not complicated, even if complex derivatives and spin, or market freezes, can pretend all is still well.
It’s ironic that this US sell-off is happening ahead of the BOJ meeting today, where governor Kuroda bows out after a decade throwing ridiculous amounts of liquidity at a system that hasn’t responded to it. The market had been whispering he might sign off with a surprise hawkish big bang to reverse yield curve control, smoothing the policy path for his successor Ueda-san. (Who would of course be in the loop, as would the Fed.) That may still happen, but you can bank on further market volatility ahead if it now does.
We will also soon find out if the Fed is worried by the Dow falling to a four-month low(!) and small banks being punished for bad investment decisionsmade under ultra-loose monetary policy(!) to act. Obviously, the market thinks the Fed will pivot again. That’s how our monetary policy cargo cult has worked for the past few decades: just do the correct correction ceremony, and riches rain down on you.
[ZH: The pivot is starting to get priced in…]
For those unfamiliar with the term, a cargo cult is defined as:
“an indigenist millenarian belief system, in which adherents perform rituals which they believe will cause a more technologically advanced society to deliver goods.
Cargo cults are marked by a number of common characteristics, including a “myth-dream” that is a synthesis of indigenous and foreign elements, the expectation of help from the ancestors, charismatic leaders, and lastly, belief in the appearance of an abundance of goods.”
There is certainly a lot of that about in markets after 40 years of ‘charismatic’ leaders providing the liquidity and other societies the goods.
Just a year ago, Fed rates were still zero and it was finally ending QE with headline CPI at 8.5%(!), while expecting cheap stuff to keep flowing domestically and internationally. Most economists still think complex physical supply chains across geopolitical fault-lines work by divine providence: “I click, cheap stuff appears.” Naturally, large parts of the market also think that if we had zero rates and QE again that all would be well. Or at least they would be well: e.g., the $2,927bn increase in US household net worth reported for Q4, more than reversing a $392bn drop in Q3 and -$1,294bn in Q2.
However, just as the US crates falling from its planes onto remote Pacific Islands dried up after the end of WW2, leaving local cargo cults frustrated, so Fed liquidity has been disappearing as policy tightens. (Although, again ironically, to push back against China, there is a huge proposed increase in the White House budget for aid to Pacific Islands.) Bond markets should note that we have seen with crypto that the Fed is now quite prepared to smash assets to show that the Great Put in the Sky does not exist anymore. Indeed, what makes markets sure that even a small bank failing is not something the FOMC would be willing to see happen pour encourager les autres?
Of course, banking ripples could escalate, and global markets are mirroring what the US is seeing because they also had low rates for too long and bad investment decisions to match.
If the Fed stands back, the market is likely to frantically engage in a more correct correction ceremony to get the Great Pivot in the Sky to shower them with gifts again.
But that still doesn’t mean it will happen. Especially after today’s strong payrolls number and if CPI next Tuesday is too.
“What, me crypto?” may be the plaintive question some then have to ask.
Of course, if the Great Pivot happens because a bank nobody has heard of bought crypto assets nobody has heard of, then the ride on inflation ahead is likely to end up with many of us looking at empty shipping containers and praying they had goods inside them – again.
Yet if there is no more monetary cargo cult then we need new ceremonies: a dance around Austrianism? Or the esoteric exegesis of bifurcated ‘rate hikes and QE (for some)’ that prevailed before neoliberalism?
But that’s all too complex for most in markets to focus on. They keep looking down at their screens and then up at the sky.
[ZH: For the first time in decades, the Fed is confronted with the dual challenge of elevated inflation & relatively severe dislocation in the banking industry.]
Happy Friday!
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
INDIA/CHINA/USA
This is a great article: actually this is how the Petrodollar scheme ends and the Petroyuan begins. Basically India is paying gold to buy discounted oil from Russia. The gold is deposited in Sberbank. Also China is buying discounted oil from Russia with yuan. The Russian take the yuan and buy gold at the Shanghai exchange. Thus the dollar is by-passed and because of lower use, its value on the world stage plummets.
(zerohedge)
Yellen Shrugs As India’s Oil Deals With Russia Threaten Petrodollar Dominance
Well, we hate to say it but she may have just ‘cursed’ something even more ominous this time, saying, when asked for comment about the increase in non-dollar trade around the world since US sanctions began:
“I don’t think the dollar has any serious competition, and is not likely to for a long time.”
The reason the question of the dollar’s ongoing dominance is growing louder is simple – as Reuters reports, US-led international sanctions on Russia have begun to erode the dollar’s decades-old dominance of international oil trade as most deals with India – Russia’s top outlet for seaborne crude – have been settled in other currencies.
India is the world’s number three importer of oil and Russia became its leading supplier after Europe shunned Moscow’s supplies following its invasion of Ukraine begun in February last year.
As Reuters notes, after a coalition opposed to the war imposed an oil price cap on Russia on Dec. 5, Indian customers have paid for most Russian oil in non-dollar currencies, including the United Arab Emirates dirham and more recently the Russian rouble, multiple oil trading and banking sources said.
Most notably, the transactions in the last three months total the equivalent of several hundred million dollars, the sources added, in a shift that has not previously been reported.
As a reminder, IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in the month after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that sanctions on Russia could erode the dollar’s dominance by encouraging smaller trading blocs using other currencies.
“The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,” she told the Financial Times.
Additionally, beyond Russia, tensions between China and the West are also eroding the long-established norms of dollar-dominated global trade.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.9062)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9214
TURKISH LIRA: 18.96 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.407…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 14 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3,749% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.730 DOWN 14 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.7188 DOWN 18 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.39 DOWN 92 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 131/63 PTS OR 1.67%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 205.24 POINTS OR 1.31%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 95.21PTS OR 1.30%
Spain IBEX DOWN 138.20 POINTS OR 1.47%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 428.57PTS OR 1.55
/%
WTI Oil price 76.47 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.75 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 76.10/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 26/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5045
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.666 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0643 UP 0.0057 OR 57 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2028 UP .01050 or 105 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.6500% DOWN 21 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.823 DOWN 1.539////YEN UP 154 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3827 DOWN .0003 (CDN dollar, UP 3 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.54
Brent OIL: 82.55
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 22 BASIS pts to 3.703%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 17 BASIS PTS to 3.700%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 29 PTS AT 4.607%
USA dollar index: 105.26 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.97
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.10 DOWN 0 AND 26/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 344.90 PTS OR 1.38%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 165.60 PTS OR 1.38%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.91 UP 3.30 PTS (14.60)%
GLD: $173.85 UP 3.65 OR 2.14%
SLV/ $18.86 UP 0,42 OR 2.28%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
“Worst Since Lehman”: Banks Break The World Again
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 04:01 PM
Last week we detailed BofA’s Michael Hartnett’s warning that “The Fed will tighten until something breaks”.
Well, something just broke…
SVB’s collapse – the second biggest US bank failure in history – dominated any reaction to this morning’s mixed bag from the BLS (hotter than expected earnings growth, rising unemployment (especially for Latinos), better than expected payrolls gains).
Things started off badly as SVB crashed 65% in the pre-market before being halted. SVB bonds were puking hard and when the FDIC headline hit, the bonds collapsed further…
Source: Bloomberg
A number of small/medium sized banks were clubbed like a baby seal…
Source: Bloomberg
And the KBW regional bank index crashed (down 9 of the last 10 days and 20% in that period). The 18% drop this week was the index’s worst drop since Lehman (Sept 2008)…
Source: Bloomberg
And as you’ll see below, that started to have some notable impacts on the most arcane of global systemic risk red flag signals…
TED Spread at YTD highs (systemic risk rising)
Global USD Liquidity tightest in 2023 (foreigners paying up for USDollars)
Global Bank Credit Risk rising
The worst week for stocks in 2023… On the week, all the US majors were down hard with Small Caps crashing 9%, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq over 4% lower…
The Dow has been underwater on the year for over a week and is now down 4% in 2023. Today’s ugliness smashed the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 down to unchanged on the year…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Majors are now back below their 200DMAs…
Unsurprisingly, financials were the week’s biggest sector laggards but all were red on the week…
VIX exploded higher on the day, back above 28 and recoupling with equity weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
On the week, Treasuries saw a wild ride but yields ended dramatically lower across the curve with the shorter-end outperforming (down almost 30bps on the week)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y yield is down over 50bps in the last two days, the biggest 2-day drop since Lehman (Sept 2008)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield is back below the Fed Funds rate once again, and will likely be considerably further below it after the next Fed meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield puked back to 3.70% – one month lows – after testing 4.00% for two weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Specs are practically still at their most short ever in bonds – so this week’s plunge in yields was hurting a lot of people…
Source: Bloomberg
No extreme moves in the TED spread yet (although its back YTD highs as systemic risk increases)…
Source: Bloomberg
Global bank credit risk is on the rise too…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended higher against its fist peers on the week – after major ups (hawkish Powell) and downs (SVB sparking dovishness)…
Source: Bloomberg
Global dollar liquidity tightened dramatically this week as the world reached for USDs at much more aggressive costs…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin puked back down to $20,000 – 2 month lows – and found support…
Source: Bloomberg
Solana and Litecoin were hit really hard this week with BTC and ETH down about 10% and Ripple holding close to unch…
Source: Bloomberg
Against all the carnage, bullion joined bonds in the safe-haven camp, with gold spiking back above $1870 – one month highs…
While oil was up today, WTI ended lower on the week back to a $76 handle…
The ‘panic’ across markets had a dramatic effect on Fed rate trajectory expectations with the Fed’s terminal rate expectations plunging over 55bps since the post-Powell spike earlier in the week, and 40bps of rate-cuts are now priced-in by year-end…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, expectations for The Fed’s action in March are hawkishly higher on the week (but down today) with around a 40-50% chance of 50bps hike priced in…
Source: Bloomberg
To put that shift in context, the term structure has dropped and twisted significantly since Wednesday…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we give the last word to Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald:
“Three days ago the view in the market was that economy was teflon vs the rate hikes and that there were not going to be any financial accidents because we have made it this far without much damage,” he wrote.
“What has now changed is that people now realize that we are not teflon and there can be impact and very negative impact at that from these hikes. It is not about which bank is next, or who has similar exposure, or will depositors be made whole. It is about there likely being more time bombs out there that we have no idea about right now. That is what has changed, people no longer believe we are teflon…finally.”
Maybe keep your eyes out for other bank CEOs dumping millions in their own stock…
Makes you wonder eh?
Returning full circle to the start of today’s market summary, we are reminded of Michael Hartnett’s closing remarks: “The market stops panicking when central banks start panicking.”
i b)EARLY MORNING TRADING//
We Are Seeing ‘Blind Panic’ – US Jobs Data Upstaged By Fears Of What Else May Be Out There
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 08:21 AM
Even though, for now, there seems to be little indication of a wider systemic risk from the distress surrounding Silicon Valley Bank, Bloomberg cross-asset strategist Ven Ram notes that traders are selling anything associated with risk first and asking questions later.
Euro-area government bonds are rallying pretty much across the spectrum in the classic flight to safety, with German yields down about 12 basis points or more across the curve.
2Y UST yields are down a stunning 30bps from yesterday’s highs…
Ram reminds market participants that it’s worth keeping in mind that banks’ capital adequacy ratios have vastly improved both in the US and across the Atlantic after the global financial crisis, so what we are seeing at the moment with the financial markets is more one of blind panic, not one backed by anything that we know about the wider implications.
The situation is different from 2008, when several lenders and financial institutions were in distress around the same time.
However, as the Bloomberg strategist notes, like an unintended side show upstaging the main act, the saga around Silicon Valley Bank has pretty much eclipsed the typical limelight reserved for non-farm payrolls.
That distress story means that the markets are likely to see an asymmetric reaction from the jobless data: a bigger rally in rates on a weaker-than-forecast print and not-so-emphatic moves on any confirmation that the labor market is still tight.
Interest-rate traders, who earlier this week were factoring in an 85% chance of a 50-basis point move from the Fed later this month, now only see a 74% chance.
The market’s terminal rate expectations have plunged 25bps in the last 24 hours and rate-cuts in H2 2023 are now a 50-50 bet…
Clearly, the markets’ concerns have moved on from parsing the minutiae of non-farm payrolls to fears rippling through from the SVB saga: are there any other skeletons hidden in the cupboard, possibly in other corners of the real economy?
Finally, for today’s implied post-payrolls move, JPM’s Bram Kaplan estimates the options market is pricing a ~1.4% S&P 500 move for NFP.
The bank’s chief economist, Mike Feroli, sees NFP to print around 200k vs 225k survey vs 517k prior and February UR to be same as Jan’s 3.4%, in line with consensus.
Looking at today’s session, yesterday and overnight, we have seen the OIS forwards adjusted their March FOMC rate expectations from 42bp post-Powell to 37bp, meaning the market is back to even odds between 25bp and 50bp.
Given this adjustment in rates, we see the risks from both sides for today’s releases:
If NFP prints hotter than expected but less than January’s level, we do not see a strong case for the market to start pricing in 75bp at the next meeting. That said, with a slight hawkish print, we may see the OIS forwards repricing towards 50bp, but may not be fully priced as we are still waiting for CPI. Recall that the move from 31bp to 42bp (11bp) led to a 1.5% decline, while these numbers are not linear correlation, this shows that the downside may not be as large as people are thinking.
On the other hand, in case for a light NFP or downward revision to Jan’s number, we may see a reversal to rate hike expectation back to 25bp. Consensus for next CPI is still at 6.0% (a 40bp decline from prior month). A light NFP alongside a 40bp decline in CPI would set up a strong case for 25bp.
Positioning Intelligence reminds us that the recent uptrend in US Equities could be sustained by a shift away from the fairly risk-off tone in ETF and HF flows over the past month.
Uncertainty is never a friend of the markets, and we have been reminded of that yet again.
end
II) USA DATA
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//jobs report
EVENTS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER
1. EARLY MORNING
Nasdaq To Suffer Friday As SVB Matters More Than US Jobs Data
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 07:22 AM
Authored by Mark Cudmore, Bloomberg,
The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have become apparent very suddenly and hence matter significantly for that precise reason.
SIVB is down another 45% overnight.
The most obvious victims will be Nasdaq and crypto, but the sentiment spillover will reach across all assets.
[ZH: For details on how we got here and where exactly we are, read here and here]
Importantly, many VC funds were only updating their advice to clients into Thursday afternoon/evening, which suggests that many more startups will be seeking to withdraw cash on Friday, perpetuating the negative news cycle on this.
Liquidity for speculative financing has been drying up for a while (note the end of the SPAC boom), but this is the first major public sudden squeeze on the sector.
Not only will the seeming bank run have direct contagion on some other small banks, but it will cause further retrenchment in the venture capital space generally for many months.
This means more startup companies won’t survive and hence there must be a write-down in values of private market portfolios. That impacts funds and banks everywhere, prompting further deleveraging.
The tech-sector will be an obvious first-instinct victim of this risk-aversion. It doesn’t help that US tech stocks remain very expensive despite the backdrop of rising yields.
The Nasdaq 100’s 12-month blended-forward BEst P/E ratio stands at 22.4 versus its 10-year average of 20.4 and 20-year average of 19.2.
Albeit, after the initial stage of worry, it’ll mainly be the more speculative names that suffer.
That brings us to crypto, a sector already reeling from the shutdown of Silvergate Capital Corp.
It’s not an unreasonable jump to conclude this may herald the starting point of the next downleg in the broader US equity bear market.
Yields have slumped over the past 24 hours on the back of risk-aversion, meaning the setup for US jobs data Friday is asymmetrically skewed for yields to pop higher.
The corollary is that we’re suddenly in a regime where anything but in-line data will likely be taken negatively by the stock market.
Strong data will be bad for equities due to intensifying a liquidity crisis, and weak data is alarming for stocks as it will heighten bankruptcy and sharp slowdown concerns.
END
2. 8; 40 AM FRIDAY MORNING
Silicon Valley Bank Crashes 65%, Halted ‘Pending News’
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 08:40 AM
Trading in Silicon Valley Bank shares has been halted after they plunged another 65% overnight after numerous icon VCs recommended clients pull cash from the struggling regional bank…
The Treasury Department is monitoring Silicon Valley Bank “very carefully,” White House Economic Advisor Bharat Ramamurti tells CNBC.
“I don’t want to say more than that right now, but I want to assure the viewers that this is something we are on top of,” he says, while adding that this is a “highly fluid situation”
Developing…
END
then: late morning!! 10: 30
Silicon Valley Bank Capital-Raise Failed, Deposit-Outflows Outpacing Sales Process; Report
Update (1030ET): In a hearing before the US House Ways & Means Committee Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the department is monitoring “a few” banks amid issues at SVB.
“There are recent developments that concern a few banks that I’m monitoring very carefully and when banks experience financial losses, it is and should be a matter of concern,”
Additionally, Reuters is reporting that SVB told its employees in a memo on Friday that they should work from home until further notice, stating according to a memo seen by the news service:
“SVB is undergoing a series of conversations that have not been concluded yet to determine next steps for the company.”
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 08:40 AM
Update (0900ET): CNBC’s David Faber reports that SVB has sought an adviser to find a buyer after attempts to raise capital have failed. However, Faber added that deposit outflows are outpacing any efforts to find a buyer…
Perhaps more problematically, SVB’s bonds (1.8s of 2031) are collapsing…
Bonds are extending losses after the stock was halted…
The fears of SVB’s collapse is contagiousl dragging down others including Schwab, Western Alliance, and First Republic…
SVB Financial Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Becker held a conference call on Thursday advising clients of SVB-owned Silicon Valley Bank to “stay calm” amid concern about the bank’s financial position, according to a person familiar with the matter.
But a large number of VCs have suggested pulling cash sooner rather than later.
“This is a classic bank run, and when the bank run starts you don’t want to be the last guy there,” Ava Labs President John Wu said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
However, some VCs said they were standing by the bank.
“It is truly unfortunate that several GPs and companies are making a tough situation for SVB worse by pressing the panic button,” said G Squared founder Larry Aschebrook.
“SVB has supported entrepreneurs and GPs at all stages of their businesses and that partnership should run both ways.”
“We’ll have to see how this story develops but something always breaks hard during or after a Fed hiking cycle,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
“Is this another mini wobble on this front or the start of something bigger?”
Michael ‘Big Short’ Burry also weighed in on Silicon Valley Bank last night.
“It is possible today we found our Enron,” the ‘Big Short’ investor said Thursday in a now-deleted Tweet
The Treasury Department is monitoring Silicon Valley Bank “very carefully,” White House Economic Advisor Bharat Ramamurti tells CNBC.
“I don’t want to say more than that right now, but I want to assure the viewers that this is something we are on top of,” he says, while adding that this is a “highly fluid situation”
Developing…
end
A must read: zero hedge explains why the Fed must come in now and go QE to save the regional banking system.
Depositors are fleeing the banks as they get the same yield buying a 6 month treasury
(zerohedge)
300 Billion Reasons Why SVB Contagion Is Spreading To The Broader Banking System
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 11:08 AM
For those who slept through yesterday, here is what you missed and why the US banking system is suffering its worst crisis since 2020. Silicon Valley Bank, aka SIVB, the 18th largest bank in the US with $212 billion in assets of which $120 billion are securities (of which most or $57.7BN are Held to Maturity (HTM) Mortgage Backed Securities and another $10.5BN are CMO, while $26BN are Available for Sale, more on that later )…
… funded by over $173 billion in deposits (of which $151.5 billion are uninsured), has long been viewed as the bank at the heart of the US startup industry due to its singular focus on venture-capital firms. In many ways it echoes the issues we saw at Silvergate, which banked crypto firms almost exclusively.
SIVB stunned markets on Thursday after it announced a series of actions to improve its balance sheet flexibility and capital ratios as rates potentially remain higher-for-longer and private markets remain under pressure. Note: while many had speculated that the bank may be facing a liquidity crisis in a rapidly rising rate environment (most notably the WSJ in late 2022), it took the management team’s confirmation that liquidity has collapsed to spark a bank crisis and a depositor run. The bank said it sold $21 billion of its available for sale (AFS) securities to be reinvested into shorter-duration Treasuries, and publicly announced raising $2.25 bil of equity ($1.75 bil common and $0.5 bil pref) primarily to support its capital ratios given the $1.8 bil after-tax loss it expects to realize on the sale and also partly to help support its credit rating. We now know, courtesy of CNBC reporting, that this equity raise failed and the bank is instead is trying to sell itself to a bigger bank.
Why did SIVB do this? Well, according to Morgan Stanley’s Manan Gosalia, who as of yesterday was the only sellside analyst to have a Sell rating on the company with a $190 price target…
… the bank did not intend to spark a panic but instead “these actions enhance its balance sheet flexibility as rates move higher. By selling down its existing AFS portfolio, which had a duration of 3.6 years, and reinvesting the proceeds into short-term US Treasurys, SIVB is enhancing its liquidity position and NIM protection as rates continue to rise. The bank is also terming out its funding by adding $15 bil of longer-dated borrowings and hedging to protect against further increases in rates. All in, the bank estimates that it will flip to asset sensitive with each 25 bp increase in rates driving $50-60 mil of higher NII.“
In English? The bank had a lot of fixed-rate TSY (and other) exposure that was underwater and carrying an unrealized loss, and having decided that rates will keep rising, the bank decided to restructure its assets and flip its portfolio from a fixed-rate one (where rate hikes cause even more capital losses) to a short-term one (where they lead to modest NIM gains). Of course, the transition ended up costing the bank billions.
None of this is shocking, and yet the market was clearly surprised. Why?
For the answer we have to go all the way back to the immediate aftermath of the last financial crisis, when in early 2009 US regulators suspended Mark to Market, and instead of having banks hold debt securities on their books at price, they allowed them to split their asset holdings into two components: Available for Sale (or AfS), a bucket which would be marked to market and which could be sold to short up liquidity, and Held to Maturity(or HTM), a (far larger bucket) which allowed the banks to keep debt securities at cost.
This was created to avoid cross-selling contagion if one bank was forced to liquidate securities and infect other holders of the same security. In other words, it was purely a idiosyncratic feature, not one that was meant to offset macro conditions. And understandably so: in a time of raging deflation, and ZIRP and QE, when rates would seemingly never go up, virtually nobody even considered a scenario when it would be the Fed itself that would force rates higher to fight galloping inflation.
Sadly for SIVB, that’s where we are now, and the Fed’s rate hikes have manifested in two ways.
First, rising rates afford depositors a completely risk-free way of parking your money at Treasuries without taking on company-specific deposit risk. This is a big issue for SIVB because as noted above it has $170BN in deposits.
Second, rising rates force the bank to sweep ever bigger losses on its debt assets under the rug. And yes, while the bank can hide behind the “held at cost” basis afforded by Held to Maturity, the fact that the bank’s HTB book was of relatively moderate duration meant that even if it held to maturity, it would still suffer losses, which is why it proceeded with the previously discussed balance sheet restructuring.
The funny part, of course, is that we knew all of this!
Yes, both SEC and FDIC regulators require banks to disclose not only the value of their HTM assets, but also the fair value of said assets, with the fair value being – as the name implies – the value of the HTM assets if they were to be sold today. The delta between the two is what is known as “net unrealized loss” and it is rapidly emerging as the most important indicator of bank health.
To be sure, until recently nobody cared about net unrealized losses on bank portfolios because, well, there simply weren’t any. But once the rate hikes started and debt prices – for anything from Treasurys, to MBS, to CRE – to started to tumble, the unrealized losses started to climb, and nowhere is this more visible than in Silicon Valley Bank’s own balance sheet, where from virtually no losses a year ago, the number climbed to $16 billion as of Q3.
Now this is a problem because at the same time, its total shareholder equity was $15.8 billion. This means that quietly, all of the bank’s book equity had been wiped out simply by the accumulated – but not marked – losses on SIVB’s HTM portfolio.
And here lies the rub: if it was only SIVB that has an “unrealized loss” problem then there would be no contagion, and the rest of the banking sector would be safe and sound. Unfortunately, as explained, the reason why SIVB’s HTM book blew up is because of surging rates, which is also why SIVB proceeded to liquidate its Available for Sale securities (at $26BN these are far less than the $91.3BN in HTM book). And it’s also why every other bank is now suffering under the pressure of massive “net unrealized losses.”
Presenting Exhibit A: net unrealized losses for the Big 4 banks.
Just like SVB, the unrealized loss issue emerged only in 2022 when rates exploded and prices of debt securities tumbled. What stands out here is that while all banks have substantial exposure – the total is $250BN as of Dec 31, 22 – Bank of America has the most exposure at just under $110 billion.
And another problem: these amounts may not sound like a lot, but when expressed in terms of book shareholder value for any given bank, they are staggering. The next chart shows what the net unrealized losses is when expressed as a function of total equity. Yes, SIVB is by far the worst with all of its book value wiped out by the unrealized loss, but other banks are hardly doing much better, to wit: Bank of America’s unrealized loss (i.e., the market-value gap between its HTB book and fair value) represents 43% of combined total equity; at State Street it is 27%; at Wells it is 25%, at US Bancorp it is 24% and so on…
Incidentally, for those asking, here is Bank of America’s commercial credit exposure by industry.
Extending this analysis to all 15 of the 24 KBW index members, the “fair value” gaps were equivalent to 10% of their equity or more. And cumulatively for all 24 banks, the $300 billion difference between the bonds’ book value and market value represented 22% of their $1.39 trillion of combined total equity!
Still think there won’t be contagion?
To be sure, some do: take Morgan Stanley’s Manan Gosalia (who as noted above was the sole SIVB sell rating before yesterday’s implosion), who this morning said that “the funding pressures facing SIVB are highly idiosyncratic and should not be viewed as a read-across to other regional banks.” He continues:
SIVB primarily banks technology, life science, and healthcare companies and is an integral part of the VC ecosystem. Falling VC funding activity and elevated cash burn are idiosyncratic pressures for SIVB’s clients, driving a decline in total client funds and on-balance-sheet deposits for SIVB. That said, we have always believed that SIVB has more than enough liquidity to fund deposit outflows related to venture capital client cash burn. SIVB has $15B in cash, $25B in newly repositioned short-dated securities, $73B in off-balance-sheet sweep accounts and repo funds that can be brought on balance sheet, and $65B in borrowing capacity (FHLB and Repo). This totals to ~$180B in available liquidity, relative to $165B of on-balance-sheet deposits. Our Underweight rating on the stock reflects that some of these sources of liquidity (particularly sweep accounts and wholesale borrowings) are expensive in a higher-for-longer rate environment, and represent a drag to earnings until the VC funding environment improves.
There is more in the full note (which is a must read for anyone involved in this situation and is available to pro subs), but Gosalia’s thesis is that while “the stock reactions across the group show that investors are worried about liquidity across the banking space” he does not “believe there is a liquidity crunch facing the banking industry, and most banks in our coverage have ample access to liquidity. As we have said before, the headwind for the banking industry is that the cost of liquidity is high and rising, which we have been tracking with our bi-weekly deposit tracker. This is a headwind for net interest margins, revenue and EPS.” (again, more in the full note available to pro subs).
Perhaps he is right (one can’t forget that Manan is just a little conflicted, being employed by – well – a bank. But what we would counter with is that while he may well be right and contragion risk is modest for big banks, which thanks to the Fed’s massive post-covid QE are still drowning in reserves and have trillions in excess liquidity, the same can not be said for small banks. And the reason for that, as we explained in “Why Small Banks Are In Big Trouble: As Hedge Funds Pile Into The New “Big Short”, The Next ‘Credit Event’ Emerges“ is that not only do small banks have much more exposure to commercial real estate, and especially the office sector, but as TS Lombard showed, they are – unlike their bigger peers – now reserve constrained.
Which boils down to the following: if depositor confidence in the regional/small bank sector is now shot – and after both Silvergate and SIVB it very well may be – we will see a small (to medium if not larger) deposit run among the regionals which could prove devastating for these reserve-constrained bankswhich will need to scramble to raise capital a la SIVB in what eventually transforms into a death spiral for the sector, especially if depositors take one look at what is going on with regional bank prices – which have been in freefall in the past two days – and extrapolate what may come next – there’s a reason why banking is the ultimate confidence game.
There is one way to short-circuit this process and it, of course, involves the Fed which would need to step in the way it did in September 2019 when it was the big banks – namely JPMorgan – that were reserve-constrained, and forced the Fed to launch “Not QE” (but only after the US repo market suffered some historic rollercoaster moves). Ironically, even if the Fed does somehow whisper words of reassurance, the question is why would depositors park their money at “suddenly” risky banks when they can just buy a 6M T-Bill and get the same return with zero risk.
Yes, the Fed may have no choice but to cut rates if it wishes to save the (regional) banking system. But then again, the Fed is still stuck fighting runaway inflation, which means that Powell is now trapped, and as we tweeted previously, Powell is now trapped: More hikes: regional banks collapse; Less hikes: inflation target must be raised.
So will Powell let America’s small, regional banks risk failure as a result of his rate hikes (an outcome the likes of JPMorgan would find quite beneficial as it will make them even bigger), or will the Fed chair step in the way he did in 2019 even if it means gambling with runaway inflation? The right answer to that question could make some traders extremely rich.
END
FINALLY 12:00 NOON
FDIC SHUTTERS SILICON VALLEY BANK,
Game Over: FDIC Shutters Silicon Valley Bank, Appoints Receiver
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 11:10 AM
Update (1135ET): Game over for Silicon Valley bank.
*FDIC: SVB BANK CLOSED BY CALIFORNIA REGULATOR
*FDIC: SVB BANK IS FIRST INSURED INSTITUTION TO FAIL THIS YEAR
*FDIC CREATES A DEPOSIT INSURANCE NATIONAL BANK OF SANTA CLARA
*FDIC: NAMED FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE FDIC AS RECEIVER
*FDIC CREATES A DEPOSIT INSURANCE NATIONAL BANK OF SANTA CLARA
*SILICON VALLEY BANK INSURED DEPOSITORS TO HAVE ACCESS MONDAY
As we noted before, while the FDIC noted that SVIB had $175BN in deposits as of Dec 31, note that some $151.5BN of these are uninsured, which means they get exactly zero although a sizable number of them likely pulled their deposits in the past few days.
And just like that SVB is no more: a historic collapse which in many ways was faster than Lehman, and which has seen SIVB stock plunge from $763 to 0 in 16 months.
Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect insured depositors, the FDIC created the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara (DINB). At the time of closing, the FDIC as receiver immediately transferred to the DINB all insured deposits of Silicon Valley Bank.
All insured depositors will have full access to their insured deposits no later than Monday morning, March 13, 2023. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week. Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds. As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to uninsured depositors.
Silicon Valley Bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts. The main office and all branches of Silicon Valley Bank will reopen on Monday, March 13, 2023. The DINB will maintain Silicon Valley Bank’s normal business hours. Banking activities will resume no later than Monday, March 13, including on-line banking and other services. Silicon Valley Bank’s official checks will continue to clear. Under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, the FDIC may create a DINB to ensure that customers have continued access to their insured funds.
As of December 31, 2022, Silicon Valley Bank had approximately $209.0 billion in total assets and about $175.4 billion in total deposits. At the time of closing, the amount of deposits in excess of the insurance limits was undetermined. The amount of uninsured deposits will be determined once the FDIC obtains additional information from the bank and customers.
Customers with accounts in excess of $250,000 should contact the FDIC toll-free at 1-866-799-0959.
The FDIC as receiver will retain all the assets from Silicon Valley Bank for later disposition. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.
Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank, Almena, Kansas, on October 23, 2020.
* * *
Update (1030ET): In a hearing before the US House Ways & Means Committee Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the department is monitoring “a few” banks amid issues at SVB.
“There are recent developments that concern a few banks that I’m monitoring very carefully and when banks experience financial losses, it is and should be a matter of concern,”
Additionally, Reuters is reporting that SVB told its employees in a memo on Friday that they should work from home until further notice, stating according to a memo seen by the news service:
“SVB is undergoing a series of conversations that have not been concluded yet to determine next steps for the company.”
* * *
Update (0900ET): CNBC’s David Faber reports that SVB has sought an adviser to find a buyer after attempts to raise capital have failed. However, Faber added that deposit outflows are outpacing any efforts to find a buyer…
Perhaps more problematically, SVB’s bonds (1.8s of 2031) are collapsing…
Bonds are extending losses after the stock was halted…
The fears of SVB’s collapse is contagious dragging down others including Schwab, Western Alliance, and First Republic…
SVB Financial Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Becker held a conference call on Thursday advising clients of SVB-owned Silicon Valley Bank to “stay calm” amid concern about the bank’s financial position, according to a person familiar with the matter.
But a large number of VCs have suggested pulling cash sooner rather than later.
“This is a classic bank run, and when the bank run starts you don’t want to be the last guy there,” Ava Labs President John Wu said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
However, some VCs said they were standing by the bank.
“It is truly unfortunate that several GPs and companies are making a tough situation for SVB worse by pressing the panic button,” said G Squared founder Larry Aschebrook.
“SVB has supported entrepreneurs and GPs at all stages of their businesses and that partnership should run both ways.”
“We’ll have to see how this story develops but something always breaks hard during or after a Fed hiking cycle,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
“Is this another mini wobble on this front or the start of something bigger?”
Michael ‘Big Short’ Burry also weighed in on Silicon Valley Bank last night.
“It is possible today we found our Enron,” the ‘Big Short’ investor said Thursday in a now-deleted Tweet
The Treasury Department is monitoring Silicon Valley Bank “very carefully,” White House Economic Advisor Bharat Ramamurti tells CNBC.
“I don’t want to say more than that right now, but I want to assure the viewers that this is something we are on top of,” he says, while adding that this is a “highly fluid situation”
Developing…
END
They are just not buying the fake hot jobs report. The crooked Birth death plug added 176,000 fake jobs//more than 56% of the job gains
(zerohedge)
February Payrolls Come In Hot At 311K – Record 10th Beat In A Row – But Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rises
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 08:49 AM
If the already jittery market needed another reason to be very confused today, it got it moments ago when the BLS reported February jobs data and which -on one hand – came in hotter than expected at the headline level, with some 311K jobs reportedly created in February, which while was a drop from last month’s downward revised 504K, was well above the 225K consensus and was also above the whisper number of 250K.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 21,000, from +260,000 to +239,000, and the change for January was revised down by 13,000, from +517,000 to +504,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 34,000 lower than previously reported.
Putting this number in context, this was a record 10th consecutive beat to consensus expectations.
But while the headline payroll number was hotter than expected – driven mostly by retail workers and waiters – the not so good data come from the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly jumped from 3.4% to 3.6%, and above the 3.4% consensus estimate as the number of unemployed workers jumped from 5.694MM to 5.936MM, more than the number of Employed workers (which increased from 160.138MM to 160.315MM), while the labor force increased by 1.7 million workers in the past 3 months.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics (5.3 percent) increased in February. The unemployment rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (11.1 percent), Whites (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), and Asians (3.4 percent) changed little over the month.
The underemployment rate also rose modestly, from 62.4% to 62.5%.
Elsewhere, the infamous Birth-Death adjustments added 176K, vs a decline of -144K in Jan; there’s half the modeled gain.
There was also some relief in wage growth, as average hourly earnings rose 0.2% M/M, down from 0.3% in January and below the 0.3% consensus estimate. This translated to a 4.6% increase YoY, which was also below the 4.7% consensus estimate (largely due to a base effect).
The increase may also be due to a decline in the denominator: average weekly hours worked dropped from 34.6 to 34.5.
Some more details from the report:
The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 223,000 in February to 2.8 million.
The number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 343,000 to 2.3 million in February, offsetting a decrease in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.1 million, changed little in February and accounted for 17.6 percent of the total unemployed.
In February, the labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio held at 60.2 percent. These measures have shown little net change since early 2022 and remain below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels (63.3 percent and 61.1 percent, respectively).
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, was essentially unchanged in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.1 million in February. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was little changed at 1.4 million in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 363,000.
Drilling deeper into the Establishment report, we find the following details:
Leisure and hospitality added 105,000 jobs in February, similar to the average monthly gain of 91,000 over the prior 6 months. Food services and drinking places added 70,000 jobs in February, and employment continued to trend up in accommodation (+14,000).
Employment in retail trade rose by 50,000 in February, reflecting a gain in general merchandise retailers (+39,000). Retail trade employment is little changed on net over the year.
Government employment increased by 46,000 in February, about the same as the average monthly gain of 44,000 over the prior 6 months. Employment in local government continued to trend up in February (+37,000).
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in February (+45,000), with a gain of 12,000 in management, scientific, and technical consulting services.
Health care added 44,000 jobs in February, compared with the average monthly increase of 54,000 over the prior 6 months. In February, job growth occurred in hospitals (+19,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000).
Construction employment grew by 24,000 in February, in line with the average monthly growth of 20,000 over the prior 6 months.
Employment in social assistance rose by 19,000 in February, similar to the average monthly gain of 22,000 over the prior 6 months.
In February, the information industry lost 25,000 jobs. Employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-9,000) and in telecommunications (-3,000). Employment in information has decreased by 54,000 since November 2022.
Transportation and warehousing lost 22,000 jobs in February, including 9,000 in truck transportation. Employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 42,000 since October 2022.
Of the above, perhaps most notable is that manufacturing employment lost jobs for the first time since April 2021.
So what to make of this data, and why are stocks higher after kneejerking lower initially?
Bloomberg’s chief US economist Anna Wong says that “February’s extremely strong jobs report exceeded expectations — and, following January’s blowout report, means the Fed will likely follow through with Powell’s statement in his semiannual congressional testimony about accelerating the pace of rate hikes. That said, there are some signs of weakening in the print — Hours worked slowed, and average hourly earnings cooled faster than expected – that are consistent with our read that the labor market is softening. Still, with inflation elevated, the Fed will have to take the data in this report at face value. We have upgraded our baseline to a 50-basis-point hike at the March FOMC meeting.”
According to TD Securities’ strategist Priya Misra, one of the reasons the market is sharply higher is because it is reacting to average hourly earnings coming in weaker than forecast:
“I guess it lowers pressure on the Fed to go 50bp but the labor market is still strong and wages are running at 4.6% (far greater than the 3.5% that the Fed needs). The Fed will not stop hiking until they see the labor market weaken so we think that the 2s10s curve should flatten. We should see the market keeping some risks of a 50bp hike in March. Not a bad report for risk assets but financials loom larger. We stay long 10s here.”
Here, however, KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk countered “don’t get so excited about the slowdown in earnings” as the payroll gain as more important. “This keeps a half-point hike on the table because of the sheer volume of paychecks that we’re generating, which is buoying demand. At the end of the day what the Fed is worried about is how strong demand is relative to supply. The issue is not wages; it’s aggregate demand. And this is feeding into aggregate demand, which is buoying inflation.”
According to Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, today’s report is “just what the Fed ordered.”
“This report screams soft landing and looks to be a pretty good one for the Fed.”
If only the US banking sector were screaming the same…
end
Trading late morning: 10 AM
Treasury Yields Plunge Most ‘Since Lehman’, Gold Soars Amid Dovish-Dive In Fed Expectations
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 09:50 AM
The 2Y Treasury yield is down 45bps from yesterday’s highs…
That is the biggest 2-day drop in the 2Y yield since Lehman (Sept 2008)…
Source: Bloomberg
The market’s expectation for Fed moves has shifted dramatically more dovish with the terminal rate tumbling by over 40bps and a full 25bps rate-cut now priced-in by year-end…
And gold is seeing huge safe haven inflows…
Will The Fed break its blackout window to soothe market fears?
END
Of all days: this happens;
Wells Fargo Warns Customers Of ‘Incorrect Balances Or Missing Transactions’
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 02:33 PM
Of all days…
Customers of Wells Fargo, the fourth largest bank in the US by assets, are complaining of missing direct deposit payments and incorrect balances.
The bank has acknowledged the reports which are affecting “some customers,” and is chalking it up to a potential “technical issue.”
“We are working quickly on a resolution and apologize for the inconvenience. Customers’ accounts continue to be secure,” the company added.
According to Downdetector, a spike in reported Wells Fargo outages began just after 5 a.m.
Now they issue their warning: railroad group issues an urgent action concerning loose railcar wheels
(zerohedge)
Railroad Group Issues “Urgent Action” Advisory About Loose Railcar Wheels
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 07:42 AM
After a series of Norfolk Southern (NS) freight train derailments, the latest accident on Thursday in Alabama, hours before NS CEO Alan Shaw faced lawmakers about the Feb. 3 toxic chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) issued a rare advisory urging carriers to stop using certain railcars amid concerns about loose wheels.
“Yesterday, Norfolk Southern identified loose wheels on a series of cars that presents an increased risk of an out-of-gauge derailment. Today, AAR, through its committee structure, took expeditious action and has issued an advisory to stop cars with these wheels from use and interchange until those wheel sets can be replaced,” AAR spokeswoman Jessica Kahanek told media outlet Trains.
“This is an uncommon defect to see in a wheelset that demanded urgent action. This is a voluntary, proactive step aimed at ensuring equipment health and integrity,” Kahanek added.
The industry group said railcars designed to carry coiled steel produced by National Steel Car of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, between August of last year and March should be removed immediately from service.
The advisory comes hours after a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed Thursday in Calhoun County, Alabama. On the same day, NS CEO Alan Shaw testified in a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing about the devastating train derailment in East Palestine.
Reuters noted the National Transportation Safety Board is currently looking into the possible impact of loose wheels on recent train derailments.
end
Usually is a deep recession, this is what goes first:
(zerohedge)
Cracks Appear In Luxury Housing Market
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Luxury real estate has cooled in the past several months.
According to new research published by the Jefferies Group, the median price for a luxury home in 15 top US markets, which includes homes with listing prices above $2.5 million, increased by a measly 6% in January compared to the previous year. However, this growth represents a significant slowdown from December’s 20% gain, a possible indication that a combination of high mortgage rates, stock, bond, and crypto turmoil, and reduction of banker bonuses could be pressuring the luxury home market.
Jonathan Matuszewski, an analyst at Jefferies, pointed out that Park City, Utah, was one of the country’s most pressured luxury housing markets. The median price in the mountainous resort town declined by 30% in January. This was the second consecutive drop following a 6% decline in December.
Matuszewski wrote that the luxury home market is experiencing pressure due to technology layoffs and banks reducing bonuses.
“March 2023 data shows investment bank bonuses fell 30-50%,” he said, adding, “Mid-level private equity professionals down ~33%.”
Jefferies shows the luxury housing market lost momentum at the end of 2022, with sharp declines in the first month of this year.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage via Bankrate jumped back over 7%, rising to 7.06%, the highest level since early November.
The troubling findings were enough for Matuszewski to downgrade the upscale home goods retailer RH to Hold from Buy.
“We are downgrading to hold given a luxury housing market that’s struggling to stabilize and corporate cuts to headcount / compensation that haven’t yet rippled across the luxury home furnishings category.
“With the current multiple reasonably nestled between other luxury peers and more risk vs. reward heading into the ’23 guide, we move to the sidelines,” he said.
These are early signs affluent buyers are moving toward the sideline. The shift comes as higher-than-expected inflation means that global central banks will keep aggressively raising interest rates until something breaks.
end
3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//
“Expect Mass Layoffs…” – The Real-World Impact Of SVB’s Failure
FRIDAY, MAR 10, 2023 – 01:41 PM
For most people in America, the news that a ‘bank in Silicon Valley’ has failed will be forgotten quicker than a story about soaring shoplifting in their local supermarket.
It shouldn’t.
Reality is that the contagion of the shuttering of the 18th largest bank in the US are widespread.
SVB is in fact the second largest (by assets) bank failure in US history after WaMu.
First things first, investors are out a lot…
Whenever a company stumbles, shareholder lawsuits become pretty common. As Bloomberg reports, already this morning, law firms including Faruqi & Faruqi LLP, Schall Law Firm, Pomerantz LLP and Girard Sharp LLP have put out press releases saying they’re looking into SVB and that investors who’ve suffered losses as the bank’s shares slumped can contact the firms’ attorneys.
SVB was not just a dominant player in tech but were highly integrated in some nontraditional ways.
A few things we’ll see in the coming days / weeks…
One, SVB was incredibly integrated into the lives of many founders. Not just their startup’s bank & lender, but also provided personal mortgages and other financial services. A whole mess for FDIC (or the eventual buyer) to unwind.
Two, any “uninsured” balances at SVB – those above $250K – are in jeopardy. FDIC plans to pay them out “as it sells the assets of SVB”. Lots of startups exclusively banked with SVB as *this was a covenant of their debt*!
CEOs yesterday faced a hard choice: Pull your deposits and go into default on your venture debt or risk losing everything if the bank failed. Many chose to hold tight as SVB’s outright failure seemed outlandish.
Now they may not be able to make payroll next week.
Unpaid wages pierce the corporate veil, so boards are *incredibly* sensitive to employing workers they may not be able to pay.
Expect mass layoffs later today, Monday at latest.
And given the weak fundraising environment, a number of startups have been reliant on venture lenders – e.g., SVB – not aggressively pursuing amortization of debt or triggering default for covenant foot faults (e.g., cash balances). How will the FDIC handle this? Mass defaults?
Having run a startup through the GFC, this is the first thing I’ve seen since that is even vaguely reminiscent of that time. Total clusterfuck.
One more thing: SVB also offered *wealth management services* to many of its founders. So your corporate lender, corporate bank, personal mortgage lender, and family’s wealth manager is… all one bank, which is now in FDIC receivership. Fun.
JPowell got his fucking debt crisis alright
Launchpad Capital founder Ryan Gilbert explained the impact of this mainstay of the VC market‘s failure…
We (Rippling) discovered yesterday that Silicon Valley Bank had unexpected solvency challenges. Just now, we learned that the FDIC had stepped in and effectively shut down SVB.
Rippling has historically relied on SVB for payments rails for our payroll and other products. In light of yesterday’s news, we immediately accelerated a planned switch to JPMorgan Chase.
Effective immediately & going forward, Rippling payroll runs will process through JPMC. However, pay runs in flight for today out of SVB have not been paid. The latest we heard from SVB this morning was that this was an operational delay and funds will be released.
However, FDIC involvement makes us skeptical of the assurances we are getting from SVB.
Our top priority is to get our customers’ employees paid as soon as we possibly can, and we’re working diligently toward that on all available channels, and trying to learn what the FDIC takeover means for today’s payments.
We have contacted customers with a configuration change they need to make for us to successfully process their payroll, going forward, via JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Going forward, payroll runs through Rippling will have no exposure to SVB. But today’s payment delay is a result of pay runs initiated early this week, with funds in-flight through SVB. Our full focus is on getting these employees paid as quickly as possible.
So, it’s not just ‘rich’ venture capitalist ‘folks’ who could be suffering.
It’s real world businesses and their clients and employees who are feeling the direct pinch of SVB’s failure today.
Additionally, as @WallStCynic notes, public companies with uninsured deposits at SVB will have to start making some very uncomfortable disclosures soon.
Finally, we note that the well known problem with bank failure is that they are always non-linear… and we are far from seeing the final fallout from this one.
Furthermore, the shift in what flows they have available to JPMorgan is noteworthy since the hope, once again, becomes, that these mega banks are ‘too big to fail’.
end
3c East Palestine train disaster//updates
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Why Are They Afraid? Is The Release Of Suppressed J6 Footage Really A “Threat To Our Democracy”?
THURSDAY, MAR 09, 2023 – 06:00 PM
The release of over 40,000 hours of January 6th security footage by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy to Tucker Carlson of Fox News has sparked an immediate backlash from Democrats who claim Carlson is exploiting the footage to misrepresent the event. Say what you want about Fox News, but Carlson as an individual has shown consistency in his reporting and an effort to get beyond the mere surface of events. The assertion that Carlson is misrepresenting J6 footage remains unfounded.
Leftists were not able to describe how, exactly, surveillance footage from the capitol is rigged to depict events that did not happen, but their reactionary behavior indicates a number of inconvenient truths:
First, leftists went on the attack before the footage was ever received by Tucker Carlson. They didn’t want him to have it. The Democrats at least believed that unreleased footage might show evidence contrary to their carefully crafted narrative of an “insurrection.” Or, they knew that it would debunk their narrative. Either way, they preemptively accused Carlson of mishandling the footage as it was made available to him.
If the public can be convinced that certain information is a lie before they ever see the information, then the release of those facts becomes irrelevant. The populace has been strategically infected with bias, so they will not see what is right in front of their eyes.
Second, Democrats and some GOP NeoCons have shown once again that they think the public should not be allowed to determine the meaning of data and evidence for themselves. In fact, one might suspect that establishment elites have something to hide as they rage indignantly about the mere release of video surveillance. Why are they so opposed to the public viewing the information unless that information threatens to expose establishment lies?
Third, much like the release of the Twitter Files, it is actually a majority of the corporate media that is seeking to misrepresent the evidence being revealed as rigged, incomplete or not important. Their goal is to suppress new information, and if they can’t do that they will try to undermine it by sowing false seeds of doubt.
Numerous Democrat leaders and some NeoCon politicians, without taking time to acknowledge the implications of the surveillance being presented by Tucker Carlson, have immediately denounced the footage as “lies” and “sleight of hand.” Senator Chuck Schumer was quick to go on the attack, calling Carlson’s recent segment on J6 a “perversion” of the truth. Not only that, but Schumer openly called for Rupert Murdoch to stop Carlson and remove him.
Why? Because “our democracy depends on” the censorship of such materials.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Watch Schumer again: "Rupert Murdoch has a special obligation to stop Tucker Carlson from going on tonight…from letting him go on again and again…our democracy depends on it." <br><br>They’re going to try and take Tucker off the chessboard “because democracy”<br><br>What is in those tapes? <a href="https://t.co/cqKZzo8mo2">pic.twitter.com/cqKZzo8mo2</a></p>— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) <a href="https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1633488152580214786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 8, 2023</a></blockquote> https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
“It was a mistake, in my view, for Fox News to depict this in a way that’s completely at variance with what our chief law enforcement official here at the Capitol thinks.”
In other words, the mainstream news should be taking its cues from government officials and repeating exactly what THEY say, rather than reporting on the evidence as it exists. In their view, the narrative of the government supersedes the determinations of the public.
This is the exact sentiment that was expressed by U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger, who argued that Carlson’s conclusions were “offensive and misleading.” Manger claimed that:
“TV commentary will not record the truth for our history books…The justice system will. The truth and justice are on our side.”
Again, they believe that they write the truth. They write history, and history is whatever they say it is. The J6 Committee had one job, which was to perpetuate the historical narrative of an insurrection by conservatives on the steps of the Capitol Building. They were not interested in the truth, which is why over 40,000 hours of surveillance footage was never released to the public. They showed us what they wanted us to see, not the full reality.
Beyond the numerous videos showing police opening the doors and inviting protesters inside (which the media continues to lie about), there is also the question of intent which the J6 Committee was never able to prove.
The FBI found no evidence that the Trump Administration had anything to do with the Capitol protesters and scant evidence of any form of organization or coordination that would be required for an insurrection. Where were the plans for takeover? Who intended to run the government after the supposed coup? Where was the army that was going to secure the capitol after the insurrection’s success? None of these things existed.
In fact, none of the protesters on J6 were even armed and the only person killed when the protests turned violent was Ashli Babbitt, a protester. It’s pretty difficult to pull off an insurrection without weapons, without organization and without a plan. In other words, there was no insurrection. The claim is an erroneous lie, and always has been. The establishment has tried to reinvent a protest that turned aggressive into an act of war against “democracy” itself.
Tucker Carlson’s footage shows what most of us already knew – That the media and elements of the government have completely overblown the events of January 6th for political gain The footage also reconfirms that no police were killed by protesters, and yet the media continue to perpetuate that disinformation. It is likely that Carlson will be releasing new footage for many months to come which runs contrary to the official version of events, which is why Democrats are calling for him to be taken off the air.
There is far more proven organization during the BLM and Antifa riots across the US for the past few years. Just this week Antifa engaged in a highly organized direct attack on a police training center site near Atlanta, Georgia. But the media doesn’t want to talk about that, or how leftist groups represent a danger to our constitutional freedoms. And it is this double standard that is only making half the country more inclined to not care about such notions.
If our system is so corrupt that the release of hard video evidence “threatens our democracy,” then maybe our democracy isn’t worth saving.
end
Turley: Did The ‘QAnon Shaman’ Get Shafted On Sentencing? New Footage Raises Questions Over The Chansley Case
If there is one image from Jan. 6th that will remain indelible with the day, it is the “QAnon Shaman.” Bare chested and wearing an animal headdress, horns and red-white-and-blue face paint, Jake Angeli Chansley is to the Capitol riot what Rosie the Riveter was to World War II. Howling and “chanting an unintelligible mantra” on the Senate floor, he is the embodiment of the unhinged rage that led to one of the most disgraceful attacks on our constitutional process in history.
However, the newly released Fox footage from that day raises serious questions over the prosecution and punishment of Chansley.
The videotapes aired on Tucker Carlson this week show Chansley being escorted by officers through the Capitol. Two officers appear to not only guide him to the floor but actually appear to be trying to open locked doors for him. At one point, Chansley is shown walking unimpeded through a large number of armed officers with his four-foot flag-draped spear and horned Viking helmet on his way to the Senate floor.
It is otherworldly footage. While I admit that I approach these stories from the perspective of a long-standing criminal defense attorney, I would be outraged if I was unable to see such evidence before a plea or sentencing. At no point in the videotapes does Chansley appear violent or threatening. Indeed, he appears to thank the officers for their guidance and assistance. On the Senate floor, Chansley actually gave a prayer to thank the officers agreed “to allow us into the building.”
Before addressing the legal implications of this footage, one thing should be clear. The public should have been given access to this footage long ago and the Jan. 6th Committee withheld important evidence on what occurred inside the Capitol on that day.
While it is understandable that many would object to Carlson being given an exclusive in the initial release, many in the media are denouncing the release of the footage to the public at all. The press and pundits are now opposing greater transparency in resisting any contradiction of the narrative put forward by the Jan. 6th Committee. Indeed, MSNBC’s Jason Johnson angrily objected that this is “federal evidence” — ignoring that it is evidence that was denied to criminal defendants.
This is not just material that the public should be able to see, it was potential evidence in criminal cases like that of the QAnon Shaman.
When the footage aired, I wrote a column raising the question of whether this evidence was known to or shared with Chansley’s defense.
After all, he was portrayed as a violent offender by the Justice Department at his sentencing.
It now appears that the answer is no. I spoke with Chansley’s new counsel, Bill Shipley, and confirmed that defense counsel did not have this material.
In the hearing, federal prosecutor Kimberly Paschall played videos showing Chansley yelling along with the crowd and insisted “that is not peaceful.”
That portrayal of Chansley would have been more difficult to maintain if the Court was allowed to see images of Chansley casually walking through a door of the Capitol with hundreds of other protesters and then being escorted by officers through the Capitol. At no point is he violent and at no point is he shown destroying evidence. Instead, he dutifully follows the officers who facilitate his going eventually to the unoccupied Senate floor.
We all knew that Chansley was treated more harshly because of his visibility. It was his costume, not his conduct, that seemed to drive the sentencing. In the hearing, Judge Royce Lamberth noted, “He made himself the image of the riot, didn’t he? For good or bad, he made himself the very image of this whole event.”
Lamberth hit Chansley with a heavy 41-month sentence for “obstructing a federal proceeding.”
However, the QAnon Shaman was led through the Capitol by officers. Defense counsel could have noted that his “obstruction” in going to an unoccupied Senate floor was facilitated by officers. While the police were clearly trying to deescalate the situation after the Capitol was breached, this is evidence of how Chansley came to the Senate. Indeed, his interaction with officers could have impacted how he viewed the gravity of his conduct. It certainly would have been material to the court in sentencing the conduct.
In his rambling sentencing statement to the court, Chansley apologized for “a lot of bad juju that I never meant to create.”
I have great respect for Judge Lamberth, who has always shown an admirable resistance to public pressure in high profile cases. I cannot imagine that Lamberth would not have found this footage material and frankly alarming.
At first blush, this would appear a clear “Brady violation” when a prosecutor fails to provide a defendant with any evidence that is favorable or exculpatory to his case. Like most things in Chansley’s life, it is a bit more complex than it would seem.
First, Chansley quickly pleaded guilty to the charge. This may have been due in part to the draconian treatment that he received by the Justice Department, which insisted on keeping him in solitary confinement with no apparent justification. The result is that he moved rapidly to sentencing without significant discovery in his case.
Second, the footage was in the possession of the legislative branch so the Justice Department could claim that it was not required to produce it. Indeed, the prosecution may have been entirely unaware of the footage.
Third, Chansley waived an appeal of the plea agreement and is now weeks away from release. The case is practically closed.
It is not clear, however, if Judge Lamberth will find the failure to disclose this evidence troubling and worthy of inquiry. None of this means that Chansley should not have been given jail time. Indeed, it is appropriate to sentence rioters to greater than average time due to the assault on our constitutional process.
Yet, it is hard to believe that Judge Lamberth would have given 41 months to a nonviolent, first offender who was led through the Capitol by police officers to the floor.
This was a Navy veteran who pleaded guilty to the crime.
The role of Congress in withholding this footage is disgraceful and wrong. The Congress and the January 6th Committee knew of this footage and its relevance to a pending criminal case. Yet, they refused to make it public. Instead, the January 6th Committee hired a former ABC producer to put on a made-for-television production of highly edited images for public consumption. Countervailing evidence or images were consistently excluded and witnesses appeared as virtual props to support high-quality video packages.
Even The New York Times admitted the narrative was meant to “recast the midterm message” and “give [Democrats] a platform for making a broader case about why they deserve to stay in power.”
The image of the QAnon Shaman being escorted through the Capitol by police officers is hardly the image that they wanted to show the public. So Committee members and counsel buried footage that was clearly relevant to literally hundreds of people facing criminal sentencing across the country. They did this while repeatedly referencing those cases in hearings as upholding the rule of law.
I hold little sympathy for Chansley or the others arrested on that day. I was highly critical of President Donald Trump’s remarks before the riot.
However, it is hard to see this withheld evidence and not conclude that the Qanon Shaman got the shaft on his sentencing.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report March 10, 2023 Issue 6065
Independent View of the News
Perceived Fed conduit @NickTimiraos: Due to revised seasonal factors, a model of underlying trend inflation produced by the New York Fed (the “multivariate core”) ticked up to 4.9% in January after initially reported to have been around 3.7% at the end of 2022 (December was revised to 4.8%)https://t.co/HGaWEqYFdC (A 32.4% increase in ‘official’ inflation is a very significant increase!)
Initial Jobless Claims 211k, 195k expected, 190k prior, largest since Christmas Continuing Claims 1.718m, 1.66m consensus, 1.649m (revised from 1.655m) prior https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
California and New York were 75% of the increase. Bloomberg: “Severe weather across the Midwest and California may have been a factor. The figures may also have been boosted by New York City school workers who have negotiated into their contracts the ability to file unemployment claims when there’s a school break… This week’s tally was inflated by the New York City school holiday,”…
ESHs soared from 3982.00 to 4019.75 at 9:48 ET due to the dubiously higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims. The manic buying validates our contention that most traders are so bullish that they buy incontinently on the flimsiest excuse or data point.
ESHs then sank 21 handles by 10:16 ET. Bulls quickly pushed ESHs 17 handles higher. ESHs fell after the above Bloomberg comments on the Initial Jobless Claims anomalies hit the tape at 10:51 ET. After a modest Noon Balloon, ESHs commenced a tumble at 12:36 ET the took ESHs to a daily low of 3909.50 at 15:22 ET, -110.25 from the ESH high! After a 22-handle upward ESH manipulation, ESHs fell during the final 10 minutes of trading.
The afternoon stock market tumble is probably due to the crash in SVB Financial Group, a holding company for Silicon Valley Bank. SVB crashed 161.8 to close at 106.04. SIVB hit a high of 322.97 on 2/2/23. The stock declined another 26% in after-hour trading (low of 78.10) on reports that Founders Fund has advised clients to pull their money out of the bank. Axios reported that several venture-capital firms are considering pulling their funds out of the bank. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/peter-thiels-founders-fund-advises-companies-to-pull-money-from-silicon-valley-bank-report-12bda21d
@MichaelKantro: At the end of Q422, banks held about $620b of unrealized losses on available for sale and HTM securities… sharing this data given today’s events. https://fdic.gov/news/speeches/2023/spfeb2823.html
The WH released Biden’s Budget near 13:00 ET; details of the budget leaked out earlier. Biden’s abjectly profligate $6.8 trillion budget increases debt by $18 trillion and includes new taxes by $5.5T! It rescinds tax breaks, like carried interest and real estate rollovers. Military spending would soar to $842 billion.
Positive aspects of previous session Modestly higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims provoked a rally
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks tumbled after foolish bulls bought stuff on dubious Initial Jobless Claims and Biden’s Budget Banks got crushed on SVB; the KBW Bank Index (BKX) tumbled 7.70% for the day
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How extensive will be the collateral damage from SVB?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3948.28 Previous session High/Low: 4017.81; 3908.71
Bank of America CEO Proclaims ‘We Are Capitalists’ After Critics Blast ESG Stance Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told shareholders this week that “we are capitalists,” after a massive backlash from critics over his bank’s stance on the ESG agenda… Meanwhile, several financial giants, including BlackRock, KKR, Carlyle Group, and Blackstone Group have reportedly noted in their annual reports that the backlash against ESG investing could present a “material risk” to their businesses, especially involving fundraising, reported the Financial Times… ‘Woke Capitalist’ Agenda Accused of Endangering Investment Earnings Many top financial lending institutions and investment firms have been accused of defunding companies, canceling certain individuals and organizations who do not agree with ESG talking points, such as climate change, workforce diversity quotas, gun control, and abortion…https://t.co/FiWiDoip89
JPMorgan must hand over CEO Dimon’s records in Jeffrey Epstein lawsuithttp://reut.rs/3L81fvn
Today – Will someone receive the Feb jobs report earlier than the 8:30 ET release and trade on it? Usually, there are 2 or 3 violent moves between the release of a jobs report and the 9:30 ET NYSE open. A soft report will foment a rally, but for how long? A strong report will generate a decline. If wages are higher than 0.3% m/m, bonds will be unhappier than stocks.
As always: 1) Check the seasonal adjustments; 2) Compare the NFP data to the Household Report’s Employed; and 3) Be alert for the usual Friday afternoon rally.
Equities suffered significant technical damage on Thursday: 1) The DJIA closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since November; 2) The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq closed below their 200-DMAs for the first time since January; 3) The DJIA, which has led the rally since the October lows, closed at its lowest level since November 3 (32,001.25); 4) the S&P 500 Index closed below its Feb low; and 5) The KBW Bank Index is in collapse, -18.30% over past 20 sessions.
ESHs are-14.75 at 20:30 ET. Keep an eye on SVB and the big banks! Bond losses are piling up at banks – and very few people knows how big the losses are on OTC derivatives!
Expected economic data: Feb NFP 225k, Mfg 10k, Rate 3.4%, Wages 0.3%, Workweek 34.6, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4%; Feb Budget Statement -$256.0B
Saudi Arabia is asking the U.S. to provide security guarantees and help to develop its civilian nuclear program for peace with Israel, sources say – WSJ
Speaker of the House McCarthy said he will release all Jan. 6 surveillance videos to the public.
CNN’s @alaynatreene @BennieGThompson, ex- chair of the Jan. 6 com, said lawmakers were never given that type of access to the footage last Congress. “It’s strictly a new policy that the new speaker has put in place,” he told CNN. Thompson said he doesn’t think any of the Jan. 6 members themselves ever had access to the footage — they let only staff view it. “I’m actually not aware of any member of the committee who had access. We had a team of employees who kind of went through the video.”
@MZHemingway: In stunning admission, the chairman of the J6 committee now confesses he never analyzed any footage before running the made-for-TV show trial with Liz Cheney. Absolutely insane. Even worse than we thought.
@ByronYork: Chair of the Jan 6 com says members never had access to J6 video? They hired people–the ABC showrunner and his team–to handle it?… the J6 lawmakers were really just the presenters?
An egregious denial of due process for Jan. 6 protesters – NY Post’s Miranda Divine A new book about the J6 prisoners, “Due Process Denied,” tells a tale of hell in the Washington, DC, “gulag,” the Central Detention Facility in southeast Washington where most have been housed. Cynthia Hughes writes poignantly of one defendant who committed suicide rather than go back to jail. The defendants have been kept in a separate unit with mold on the walls, brown water and generally unsanitary conditions, are subjected to 23 hours a day of solitary confinement, denied adequate food, medical treatment and religious services. Their only solace is that every night at 9 p.m., they gather to sing the national anthem… The Capitol riot was ugly and the behavior of those who attacked police was shameful. But that does not justify this unjust and cruel treatment, and the lengthy pretrial detention of nonviolent defendants. For more than two years, the deplorables who went to Washington, DC, that day have been vilified and demonized as domestic terrorists and, absurdly, white supremacists. They are all guilty until proven innocent, even if they did not enter the Capitol that day. Nancy Pelosi lied that Trump supporters had defecated all over the House floor. There is no evidence that any such thing happened. “There’s defecation and all that kind of thing . . . It could take time to clean up the poo-poo that they’re making all over,” Pelosi said gleefully in a video from the day released by the J6 committee. Just another casual defamation. Pelosi engineered the J6 committee to her political advantage… Their show trials were designed to “Give Democrats a Chance to Recast Midterm Message,” as The New York Times declared… https://nypost.com/2023/03/08/an-egregious-denial-of-due-process-for-jan-6-protesters/
FNC’s Hume: Reactions to January 6 Footage ‘Hysterical,’ Bordering on ‘Unconstitutional Assertions of Censorship’ – HUME: What strikes me about this is, what a poor job, the January 6 committee did. They had access to all of this information, and they were very, very, very selective in what they presented. And they had a committee that was composed entirely of people chosen by Nancy Pelosi, or approved by Nancy Pelosi… Nor did the member — any members of that committee insist on the videotape that we’ve been seeing from Tucker Carlson be aired as part of what the committee was doing. Tucker was able to construct an entirely different narrative from that which was presented by the committee. All of this would have been unnecessary. If we’d had a normally composed, properly balanced committee on January 6th… Much of the reaction seems to me to be hysterical, bordering on, you know, unconstitutional assertions of censorship and so on. So, my view of this is that sooner or later all this videotape will be out, and the public may have a better chance to make a proper assessment of what happened that day… It was certainly a riot and an ugly one. Insurrection? I doubt the evidence fully seem will support that. https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2023/03/09/fncs-hume-reactions-to-january-6-footage-hysterical-bordering-on-unconstitutional-assertions-of-censorship/
Turley: Did the “QAnon Shaman” Get Shafted on Sentencing? New Footage Raises Questions Over the Chansley Case – While I admit that I approach these stories from the perspective of a long-standing criminal defense attorney, I would be outraged if I was unable to see such evidence before a plea or sentencing. At no point in the videotapes does Chansley appear violent or threatening. Indeed, he appears to thank the officers for their guidance and assistance. On the Senate floor, Chansley actually gave a prayer to thank the officers agreed “to allow us into the building.”… The press and pundits are now opposing greater transparency in resisting any contradiction of the narrative put forward by the Jan. 6th Committee… I spoke with Chansley’s new counsel, Bill Shipley, and confirmed that defense counsel did not have this material… We all knew that Chansley was treated more harshly because of his visibility. It was his costume, not his conduct, that seemed to drive the sentencing. In the hearing, Judge Royce Lamberth noted, “He made himself the image of the riot, didn’t he? For good or bad, he made himself the very image of this whole event.” Lamberth hit Chansley with a heavy 41-month sentence for “obstructing a federal proceeding.” However, the QAnon Shaman was led through the Capitol by officers… Chansley quickly pleaded guilty to the charge. This may have been due in part to the draconian treatment that he received by the Justice Department, which insisted on keeping him in solitary confinement with no apparent justification. The result is that he moved rapidly to sentencing without significant discovery in his case… it is hard to believe that Judge Lamberth would have given 41 months to a nonviolent, first offender who was led through the Capitol by police officers to the floor. This was a Navy veteran who pleaded guilty to the crime… (DOJ & some judges went Stalin! Where’s the outrage?) https://jonathanturley.org/2023/03/08/did-the-qanon-shaman-get-the-shaft-new-evidence-raises-new-questions-on-the-chansley-case/
@NewsBecker: Tucker Carlson: “More cops were injured by Kamala Harris favorite mob BLM at the White House than were injured by Trump voters at the Capitol on January 6. We only remember one of them. Why? Because the people in charge of history are liars. Liars. And lying is bad.” https://t.co/of3KtHEi4D
@julie_kelly2: Drama in the Proud Boys trial yesterday after FBI agent caught lying on the stand and concealing evidence from defense attorneys. Motion filed this morning from Nick Smith, attorney representing Ethan Nordean. This is what happens when a rogue, corrupt FBI is allowed to lie to the public, withhold information, and operate without oversight by Congress. This agent (or someone) deleted thousands of messages in FBIs “Lync” messaging system–messages relevant to investigation and required to be produced to defense counsel: https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1633808394850127872 What messages did FBI conceal from defense? A request by an FBI informant to alter an official CHS (confidential human source) report. “EDIT OUT I WAS PRESENT.” Brazen lawlessness at FBI in its biggest January 6 case. Boss instructs FBI agent to “destroy” hundreds of items of evidence. If this is a slam-dunk case of “seditious conspiracy,” why is FBI destroying, hiding evidence? Even more egregious (maybe?)– FBI accessed emails between one defendant and his attorney and discussed its contents. This agent apparently knew one defendant planned to go to trial. The judge excused the jury as soon as this info was revealed in court yesterday. Hearing shortly. The judge excused the jury as soon as this info was revealed in court yesterday. Hearing shortly
Russian TV producer praised Hunter Biden to land interview with Joe: emailshttps://t.co/1rGhaHrjhl
Mitch McConnell hospitalized (concussion) after fall during private DC dinner (Mitch will remain in the hospital “for a few more days.”) https://t.co/Bw54mi9RqI
GOP Rep Jordan’s hearing on the weaponization of the federal government was chaotic during testimony about state-sponsored censorship of Twitter. Dem Rep Sylvia Garcia, trying to disparage the witnesses (1 woman, 2 men), asked the 3 Twitter Files reporters “are you in this as a threesome?” Hilarity ensued. https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1633874644955430921
@greg_price11: Rep. Daniel Goldman (who bought a congressional seat) says “you cannot find actual evidence of any direct government censorship of lawful speech.” Rep. @Jim_Jordan then pulls out an email from the White House to Twitter asking them to censor a tweet from @RobertKennedyJr. https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1633884562215321618 @ggreenwald: Dan Goldman – just elected to Congress from Manhattan – is the perfect symbol of the Dem Party: The heir to the billionaire Levi Strauss fortune, unearned net worth of $250m, went to DC’s Sidwell Friends, Yale and Stanford, worked for the Mueller investigation, now does this: After Rep. Stacey Plaskett claimed they are not trying to get @mtaibbi to reveal his sources, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-TX) once again tries to get him to reveal his sources. https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1633872867795369984?cxt=HHwWgIC80e6t16wtAAAA Taibbi fires back: “I’m not a so-called journalist. I’ve won the National Magazine Award, the I.F. Stone Award for Independent Journalism, and I’ve written 10 books.”
@aaronjmate: At a House hearing on the Twitter Files, Democratic Rep. Stacey Plaskett declares that witnesses @mtaibb and @ShellenbergerMD “pose a direct threat to people who oppose them.” Plaskett, in reality, is threatening and smearing two journalists for exposing censorship. https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1633870396192862208 A Republican on the committee called for her claim to be struck from the record. Plaskett then called the Twitter Files hearing “unacceptable”, along with Tucker Carlson getting access to Jan. 6 footage:
@HouseGOP: “My name is Matt Taibbi. I’ve been a reporter for 30 years…much of that time was spent at Rolling Stone magazine. Ranking Member Plaskett I’m not a so-called journalist…” https://twitter.com/HouseGOP/status/1633855510104473601
@NewsBecker: Rep. Jim Jordan: “The truth is we want to focus on protecting the first amendment. Mr. Shellenberger you’re Republican? ” Shellenberger: “No. I’m not.” Rep. Jim Jordan: “You got any pro Trump bumper stickers on your car?” Shellenberger: “I voted for Biden.”
@JonathanTurley: Ranking member Plaskett is attacking the witnesses in today’s Twitter Files hearing. It is part of an overall scorched Earth strategy against anyone who testifies on censorship. The two witnesses were given access to the Twitter Files but Plaskett is dismissing them. While opposing any effort to determine the scope of censorship efforts by the government. Plaskett is launching a diatribe against Musk… At my hearing, witnesses were called “Putin lovers” and insurrectionists sympathizers. I never thought I would… see this day when Democrats trash journalists for seeking to disclose government censorship work & pressing them for their sources and confidential information.
News Nation’s @ZaidJilani: Matt Taibbi cut his teeth doing journalism in Russia at a time when a journo who did the wrong thing could be killed by the mafia or government, I don’t think Members of Congress know who they’re dealing with.
@DailyCaller: SHELLENBERGER: “They were saying even if the material you think is TRUE, it could lead people to have conclusions that we don’t want them to have… Therefore you should change your journalism because of that… It’s a disturbing trend in journalism.” @RepStefanik: “[FBI Director Chris Wray] said under oath that no one from the FBI communicated with Twitter regarding the Hunter Biden laptop story. Can you address that?” SHELLENBERGER: “What we saw was a huge amount of FBI communications to Twitter.”
@mtaibbi1: TWITTER FILES: Statement to Congress THE CENSORSHIP-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX CDC in one week: True content that might promote vaccine hesitancy: Viral posts of individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, or stories of true vaccine side effects…true posts could fuel hesitancy… https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1633830002742657027/photo/1 11. Who’s in the Censorship-Industrial Complex? Twitter in 2020 helpfully compiled a list for a working group set up in 2020. The National Endowment for Democracy, the Atlantic Council’s DFRLab, and Hamilton 68’s creator, the Alliance for Securing Democracy, are key:… 14. The Woodstock of the Censorship-Industrial Complex came when the Aspen Institute – which receives millions a year from both the State Department and USAID – held a star-studded confab in Aspen in August 2021 to release its final report on “Information Disorder.”… 16. Their taxpayer-backed conclusions: the state should have total access to data to make searching speech easier, speech offenders should be put in a “holding area,” and government should probably restrict disinformation, “even if it means losing some freedom.”… 19. The same agencies (FBI, DHS/CISA, GEC) invite the same “experts” (Thomas Rid, Alex Stamos), funded by the same foundations (Newmark, Omidyar, Knight) trailed by the same reporters (Margaret Sullivan, Molly McKew, Brandy Zadrozny) seemingly to every conference, every panel. 20. The #TwitterFiles show the principals of this incestuous self-appointed truth squad moving from law enforcement/intelligence to the private sector and back, claiming a special right to do what they say is bad practice for everyone else: be fact-checked only by themselves… 26. Perhaps the ultimate example of the absolute fusion of state, corporate, and civil society organizations is the Stanford Internet Observatory (SIO), whose “Election Integrity Partnership” is among the most voluminous “flaggers” in the #TwitterFiles:…29. According to the EIP’s own data, it succeeded in getting nearly 22 million tweets labeled in the runup to the 2020 vote… 31. After the 2020 election, when EIP was renamed the Virality Project, the Stanford lab was on-boarded to Twitter’s JIRA ticketing system, absorbing this government proxy into Twitter infrastructure – with a capability of taking in an incredible 50 million tweets a day. 32. In one remarkable email, the Virality Project recommends that multiple platforms take action even against “stories of true vaccine side effects” and “true posts which could fuel hesitancy.” None of the leaders of this effort to police Covid speech had health expertise… 34. Profiles portray DiResta as a warrior against Russian bots and misinformation, but reporters never inquire about work with DARPA, GEC, and other agencies. In the video below from @MikeBenzCyber, Stamos introduces her as having “worked for the CIA”:… 37. DiResta’s New Knowledge helped design the Hamilton 68 project exposed in the #TwitterFiles. Although it claimed to track “Russian influence,” Hamilton really followed Americans like “Ultra Maga Dog Mom,” “Right2Liberty,” even a British rugby player named Rod Bishop… 41. The far worse scandal was “Project Birmingham,” in which thousands of fake Russian Twitter accounts were created to follow Alabama Republican Roy Moore in his 2017 race for US Senate. Newspapers reported Russia seemed to take an interest in the race, favoring Moore… 49. By way of proof, no major press organization has re-examined the bold claims DiResta/New Knowledge made to the Senate – e.g. that Russian ads “reached 126 million people” in 2016 – while covering up the Hamilton and Alabama frauds. If the CIC deems it, lies stay hidden… https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1633830002742657027
NYT: Prosecutors Signal Criminal Charges for Trump Are Likely The Manhattan inquiry, which has spanned nearly five years, centers on a $130,000 payment to the porn star, Stormy Daniels, in the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign… Even if Mr. Trump is indicted, convicting him or sending him to prison will be challenging. The case against the former president hinges on an untested and therefore risky legal theory involving a complex interplay of laws, all amounting to a low-level felony… In New York, falsifying business records can amount to a crime, albeit a misdemeanor. To elevate the crime to a felony charge, Mr. Bragg’s prosecutors must show that Mr. Trump’s “intent to defraud” included an intent to commit or conceal a second crime. In this case, that second crime could be a violation of New York State election law. While hush money is not inherently illegal, the prosecutors could argue that the $130,000 payout effectively became an improper donation to Mr. Trump’s campaign, under the theory that because the money silenced Ms. Daniels, it benefited his candidacy… https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/nyregion/trump-potential-criminal-charges-bragg.html
The video released this week by Tucker Carlson and FOX shows one big fact. Everything the J6 Committee in Congress told us was a huge lie. There was no insurrection, and the video proves it. There are 14,000 hours of video that can be released, and I suspect it will prove the J6 Committee committed treason against the American people for promoting this huge lie. Was it all to make Donald Trump into a crazy insurrectionist to stop him from running in 2024? I think the answer is Yes, and the weasels who promoted this hoax should pay.
While fighting over releasing video proving people were protesting a stolen election in a peaceful manner, the death count with the CV19 bioweapon/vax keeps growing and keeps being ignored. With 600 million CV19 bioweapon injections in USA alone, we are far from finished with the massive amounts of death and disabilities happening every day. The Lying Legacy Media (LLM) keeps on ignoring the problem that will affect every man, woman and child alive today for the rest of their lives. Again, 600 million injections in America alone and about 13 billion injections worldwide of a bioweapon that did NOT HELP A SINGLE PERSON. Maybe FOX can report on this story and explain why it took Pfizer money and HHS money and did not offer a word resisting this CV19 deadly hoax.
The Fed is going to keep raising interest rates. The LLM keeps telling you the Fed is almost done, but Fed Head Jay Powell threw another cold bucket of water on that wet dream this week and said more rate increases are coming to fight inflation. Catherine Austin Fitts says, “The Fed is going to protect the dollar.” It’s really that simple.
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The collapse of the banking industry has started, with FDIC-insured Big Tech Silvergate Bank announcing yesterday they were liquidating their assets and closing down. Silicon Valley Bank also announced yesterday that they have lost $10 billion, while trying to reassure depositors to just “stay calm,” suggesting that their collapse is also probably imminent. I don’t think there has been a more significant news event in the financial sector since the financial crisis of 2008, and yet at the time of my publishing this article, none of the corporate media is treating this as a headline story, unless it is a publication that focuses only on financial news. This is the beginning of the storm that should have happened last year after FTX blew up, and probably did, but the infection that I have been calling The Big Tech Crash that started in 2022 has only just now begun to reveal how serious this crisis is, which can no longer be hidden from the public as the bank failures have now begun. Bank runs that began last year, are only going to significantly increase in the days and weeks ahead. And this infection is not confined to Big Tech and their banks, but is spreading fast to other sectors of the economy.Read More…BREAKING: Silicon Valley Bank Run has Reportedly Started – Website DownMarch 9, 2023 5:20 pm
The news is moving fast now, with the report of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) being in trouble, after Silvergate Bank announced yesterday that they were liquidating their assets and shutting down. A bank run has apparently just started at SVB, with reports that people cannot access their funds, and that their website is down. This is a developing story…Read More…Four biggest US Banks Lost $52 BILLION in Valuation Today as Dow drops 540 pointsMarch 9, 2023 11:13 pm
The corporate media is now widely reporting on this, and the entire banking sector took a huge hit today, losing $billions in valuation, $52 billion lost just with the four largest banks in the U.S. Bank runs and bank failures are no longer an “if,” but simply “when.” Which ones are next?Read More…
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