MARCH 21//RAID!!//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $39.70 TO $1938.60//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $.24 TO $22.29//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $15.45 TO $974.05//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $31.60 TO $1391.80//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//CO CO BOND YIELDS SKYROCKET TO 15% AS THESE ARE SHUNNED//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//USA SENDS 350 MILLION DOLLARS FOR AID TO UKRAINE//UK TO PROVIDE ARMOUR PIERCING BULLETS AND URANIUM DEPLETED (RADIOACTIVE)//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 47 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 146 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10 661 C JP MORGAN 65 12 661 H JP MORGAN 100 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6 737 C ADVANTAGE 11 5 880 C CITIGROUP 50 905 C ADM 1 13
TOTAL: 233 233
JPMORGAN stopped 12/233 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 233 NOTICES FOR 23300 OZ or 0.7247 TONNES
total notices so far: 4973 contracts for 497300 oz (15.868 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3091 for 15,455,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.40 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.781 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.566. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 189 CONTRACTS TO 120,906 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.15 GAININ SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE ARE NOW RECORDING FOR PROSPERITY OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER SET AT 119,412 CONTRACTS , MARCH 17/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.15). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1126 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 845 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON OF 5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.575 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.575 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –92 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 12,074 contracts: OR 60.370 MILLION OZ . (804 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 60.370 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 60.370MILLION OZ//INITIAL//ON PAR WITH LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 189 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.15 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 845 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.575 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1034OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4408 CONTRACTS TO 480,136 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -1677 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 12,454CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.60 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 35,500OZ (1.104 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.60 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,454 OI CONTRACTS (38.737 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 8046 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 480,136
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,454 CONTRACTS WITH 4408CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8046 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,454 CONTRACTS OR 38.737 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8046 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4408) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,454 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 35,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 16.0747 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 68,370 CONTRACTS OR 6,837,000 OZ OR 212.65 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4558 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 212.65 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 212.65/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 212.65 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 189 CONTRACTS OI TO 120,906 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 119,412 CONTRACTS THIS PAST WEEK, MARCH 17/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 845 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 845 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 845 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 189CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 845 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1054 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //5.170 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.15 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.74 PTS OR 0.64% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 238.05 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.81% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8722//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8719// /Oil UP TO 67,79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 74,24 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4408 CONTRACTS UP TO 480,136 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.60 ON MONDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 8046 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 8046 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8046 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE TOTAL OF 12,454 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8046LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4408 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.60. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (16.047) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 16.0747 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $9.60) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,454 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 38.737 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 35,500OZ (1.104 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.60
WE HAD -1677 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,454 CONTRACTS OR 1,245,400 OZ OR 38.737 TONNES
TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 290,606// //fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 415,048///extremely strong
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4973 notices 497,300 15.868 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of BRINKS: 6,430.200 oz (200 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 6430.200 oz
in tonnes: 0.20000 tonnes
Adjustments; 1
out of JPM: 12,117.720 oz adjusted out of dealer into customer account
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 428 contracts having GAINED 75 contracts. We had 280 notices filed on MONDAY so we
gained A HUGE 355 contracts or an additional 35,500 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April LOST A SMALL 12,726 contracts DOWN to 168,783 contracts. It is here that our banker friends have to worry as many will try and take delivery in this upcoming delivery month.
May GAINED 91 contracts to stand at 377
We had 233 notice(s) filed today for 23300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 65 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 233 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 12 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,973 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 428 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 233 x 100 oz per contract equals 516,800 OZ OR 16.0747 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (4,973 x 100 oz+ 428 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (233)x 100 oz} which equals 516,800 oz standing OR 16.0747 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 16.0747 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3091 x 5,000 oz = 15,455,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(28) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3091 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (28) – number of notices served upon today (4) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.575 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.575 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 924.55 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 458.566MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: Americans Will Pay For These Bank Bailouts
Peter Schiff appeared on the Capitol Report on NTD News to talk about the bank bailouts and the possible ramifications. He said that no matter what President Joe Biden and others tell you, Americans are going to pay for this.
The interview started with a clip of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen assuring Congrees that the banking system is safe. So, should we feel confident in our banking system?
Peter said, “not at all!”
In fact, that comment is as accurate as her earlier comments that inflation was transitory or the comments in the days leading up to the ‘08 financial crisis when she and everybody else at the Fed was saying not to worry about subprime because it was contained.”
Peter noted that Yellen kept interest rates at zero for virtually her entire term as Federal Reserve chair.
That’s the reason that we had such a big bubble. Those low interest rates and quantitative easing, and she was part of that, that’s why all these banks are loaded up with now underwater long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities so the banking system is a house of cards. It couldn’t be less sound, and partially, Janet Yellen is to blame for the current state of affairs.”
The host noted the falling CPI and asked what that said about the state of the US economy.
The economy is literally a house of cards. It’s imploding. But inflation is going to get much worse because the Fed has already returned to quantitative easing, whether they admit it or not. The way they are bailing out all the banks is by printing new money and adding it into the economy and taking on mortgages and government debt onto their already bloated balance sheet. So, the Fed’s balance sheet is going to go up. The money supply is going to go up. And that means consumer prices are going to go way up.”
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden keeps insisting that Americans aren’t going to have to pay the cost of these bailouts.
He’s lying. They’re going to pay the cost through higher prices. And when he says that everybody’s bank account is now safe, it’s not. It’s in more danger than ever before because your bank account is going to be eroded in value because of inflation. So, even if your bank doesn’t fail, and you don’t lose your money, your money is going to lose its value.”
Why exactly did SVB fail? Peter said it was due to the low interest rate and QE environment it operated in for a decade.
It was the Federal Reserve that created all these distortions by its artificial suppression of interest rates, and it caused financial institutions to take incredible risks in order to get a return.”
US government regulations also encouraged these banks to load up on Treasuries and mortgages through favorable accounting
So, this whole thing was a byproduct of bad monetary and fiscal policy.”
END
SVB And Signature Bank Were Just The Tip Of The Iceberg
The demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank was just the tip of the iceberg. As it turns out, hundreds of banks are at risk. This explains why the Federal Reserve and US Treasury rushed to provide what is effectively a bailout for the entire banking system.
According to a Washington Post report, banks would face unprecedented losses if they were forced to liquidate their bond portfolios as SVB did.
According to the Post, the total capital buffer in the US banking system totals $2.2 trillion. Meanwhile, total unrealized losses in the system based on a pair of academic papers is between $1.7 and $2 trillion.
In other words, if banks were suddenly forced to liquidate their bond and loan portfolios, the losses would erase between 77 percent and 91 percent of their combined capital cushion. It follows that large numbers of banks are terrifyingly fragile.”
A second report by the Wall Street Journal cites a study from Stanford and Columbia Universities that found 186 US banks are in distress.
As economist Peter St. Onge put it, “In other words, we were already right up against the edge.”
This is precisely why the Fed had to create a way for banks to borrow against their devalued bond portfolio. If banks were put in a position where they had to sell those bonds to raise capital, they would have fallen like dominoes.
The Fed bailout may have plugged that hole in the dam, but there will almost certainly be more cracks in the future.
It’s because of the government that Silicon Valley Bank was in the position that it was. The reason it owned so many long-term, low-yielding US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities was because the Fed kept interest rates at zero for so long. And the reason that it chose those assets was because bank regulators kind of pushed banks into Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities because they give them favorable accounting treatment. They don’t have to take any haircuts. They don’t have to mark them to market. So, the government created the problem.”
In short, while tech bros and loose bankers hog the headlines, what drives hundreds of banks to the edge is our crony banking system.
In this case, rapid Fed rate hikes crashed into a banking system that fractional reserve banking and the Fed’s “Lender of Last Resort” (LOLR) permanent bailout have driven to permanently drive as fast as possible, as close to the edge of the cliff as possible.
Together, the moral hazard has given a green light to those reckless tech bros, to those loose bankers who hand out millions—it turns out hundreds of billions. And it drives the entire banking industry to use opaque accounting tricks to hustle sleepy regulators and innocent taxpayers and dollar-holders who get stuck with the bill. The bankers themselves sleep like babies because they know you’ll cover their losses, but they keep their wins.
What turned this rigged casino into a crisis is in the past year the Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in 50 years, from 0 percent last March to 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent today. They did this in a desperate bid to cancel the inflation they caused by financing $7 trillion in deficit spending and Covid lockdowns. Indeed, those of us who wondered why voters stood by meekly had only to look at the flood of money going out the door.
These reckless hikes savaged long bond prices, by far the most popular asset in bank vaults: Across the board, long bonds fell 20 percent, feeding an estimated 10 percent plunge in all bank asset values. In essence, the bank thought it had a dollar in the vault, but turns out it only had 90 or 80 cents. In the case of high-flyers like Silicon Valley and potentially hundreds more, it was more like 60 cents. Few banks can survive that.
So, what’s next?
St. Onge said probably “a lot of pain and a lot of inflation” caused by more bailouts even as the economy spirals into a recession.
In other words – stagflation.
We the People will survive—after all, the real assets don’t vanish: the food, cars, and electricity are all there. It’s a paper crisis, but unfortunately that paper crisis has sucked real Americans in, suckered them into putting their life savings into the care of a bunch of degenerate gamblers in expensive suits. And it can bring enormous collateral damage to the wider economy that, yes, provides that food, cars, and electricity if government steps in, as it usually does.”
Schiff sees a similar future.
This is going to cost Americans a lot of money, not because their taxes are going to be raised, but because the Federal Reserve is financing this massive bailout by creating even more inflation. So, Americans are going to pay for this at the supermarket, at the gas station. Their cost of living is going to go way up. If you thought inflation was bad last year, it’s about to get a whole lot worse.”
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
Jamie Dimon is the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., which is also ranked the riskiest global bank by its regulators. But instead of getting his own house in order in the midst of a banking crisis, Dimon has been peculiarly focused elsewhere.
Over the past five days, Jamie Dimon’s legions of publicists have been burning up the phone lines with reporters, pushing the narrative that Jamie Dimon is some kind of financial wizard who needs to have a seat at the table to save the regional bank, First Republic Bank. (Scroll down here to see the exhaustive public relations effort that has gone into this narrative.)
Last Thursday, news hit the wire services that Dimon had lined up 11 banks willing to place $30 billion in uninsured deposits into First Republic Bank. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo each ponied up $5 billion – or two-thirds of the $30 billion. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) caps federal deposit insurance at $250,000 per depositor, per bank.
Taking $5 billion of your bank’s shareholders’ money and throwing it at a regional bank whose stock price is collapsing, was not viewed as the brightest of ideas by the stock market. Last Friday, the day after the deal was announced, shares of First Republic Bank dropped 32 percent. Yesterday, First Republic’s share price collapsed by another 47 percent. Over the weekend, S&P Global downgraded First Republic’s credit rating for a second time in a week to deeper junk status. Year-to-date, First Republic Bank has lost 90 percent of its market value. What exactly is there left to save?
We should also note that First Republic Bank’s Palm Beach, Florida branch is where Donald Trump’s hush money was wired to porn star Stormy Daniels by his attorney, Michael Cohen. (See our reporting here and the Wall Street Journal’s here.)
Today, a headline appears at Bloomberg News that provides a big clue as to what Jamie Dimon’s frantic obsession with First Republic Bank is really about, that is, use a collapsing regional bank to get Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on board to push for a government guarantee on all deposits, insured and uninsured, at all FDIC banks. By framing this as coming to the rescue of regional banks, rather than another crony bailout of the unaccountable mega banks on Wall Street, Jamie Dimon doesn’t have to explain to his compromised Board of Directors why 69 percent of the bank’s deposits were uninsured at year end. (See: If You’re Baffled as to Why JPMorgan Chase’s Board Hasn’t Sacked Jamie Dimon as the Bank Racked Up 5 Felony Counts – Here’s Your Answer.)
Our scenario is supported by the following hard facts:
First Republic Bank’s regulatory filing for December 31, 2022 shows that it held $176.25 billion in deposits, of which $119.47 billion were uninsured, or 68 percent of all deposits. JPMorgan Chase’s same regulatory filing (FFIEC Call Report) for December 31, 2022 shows that at year-end it held $1.527 trillion in deposits of which an estimated $1.058 trillion were uninsured – or 69 percent.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
Even as global supply diminishes, lithium prices plummet by almost 50% as world demand sinks
(zerohedge0
Lithium Prices Plummet As Global Supply Concerns Diminish
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 08:40 AM
The price of lithium has experienced a significant decline over recent months, resulting from a deceleration in electric vehicle sales and an increasing supply of the key ingredient used in battery packs.
Since November, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has plunged from $84,500 per metric ton to $42,500, or about a 50% decline, according to Bloomberg data.
Vivek Chidambaram, the senior managing director for strategy at Accenture, a consulting firm, told NYT the plunge in lithium prices could be attributed to the slowdown in electric vehicle sales. He said tight supply last year, which resulted in skyrocketing prices, has shifted into surplus this year as suppliers are producing more battery-grade lithium carbonate than ever before.
“There was a time when people believed electric vehicles would grow very rapidly. Then the reality of how fast they were actually growing caught up.” He expects lithium prices to moderate over the next several years.
In the second half of 2022, EV demand slowed due to China’s ending of subsidies to stimulate sales in the world’s largest EV market. Then in the US, the world’s second-largest EV market, Tesla began discounting vehicles in December.
On Monday, Matty Zhao, an Asia Pacific basic materials analyst at Bank of America Securities, told CNBC that last year’s lithium shortfall, which sent prices soaring, could pivot into a surplus in 2023, with “a lot of supply coming out” from mines.
“We are expecting 38% lithium supply growth this year. That’s why 2023 is likely to turn into a surplus year for lithium,” Zhao said.
Cobalt, another crucial component in batteries, has seen prices plummet by over 50%. Meanwhile, copper, a key metal in electric motors and batteries, has experienced an 18% decline.
On a positive note, the decline in lithium prices could make EVs more affordable by lowering the cost of battery packs.
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.8722
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8719
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.74 PTS OR 0.64%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 238,05 PTS OR 1.36 %
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.69 Euro RISES TO 1.0779 UP 61 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.218!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 132.21/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen XX CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.264%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.093%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.301…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.137//
3j Gold at $1961,90//silver at: 22.47 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 39/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.78//
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.21/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .217% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9242–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9968well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.541% up 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.707 UP 5 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.0949 UP 17 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.02…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.398% UP 9 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Surge Above 4,000 As Bank Crisis Fades Amid Growing Deposit Insurance Speculation
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 08:05 AM
It’s only appropriate that the day after the weekly dose of doom and gloom from Marko Kolanovic and Mike Wilson, that stocks soar to the highest level in almost two weeks. S&P futures spiked above 4,000 on Tuesday as fears about turmoil in the global banking sector subsided, following a Bloomberg report that the Biden admin was considering insuring all deposits (unclear exactly how they will credibly insure all $18 trillion in deposits, some 75% of US GDP but whatever) followed by an FT article this morning previewing Janet Yellen’s speech at the American Bankers Association on Tuesday in which the Treasury Secretary will signal further US government backing for deposits at smaller American banks if needed, “a shift that seeks to protect parts of the country’s banking system struggling in the recent financial turmoil.”
Contracts on the S&P 500 were up 0.8% by 7:45 a.m. ET paced by European shares with Estoxx50 +1.8% on the day as risk appetite has been stoked by report that US officials are studying ways to temporarily guarantee all bank deposits; Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%. Both underlying indexes had risen on Monday. European and Asian markets were solidly in the green. As a result of the jump in risk sentiment, traders are also firming up bets on the Fed raising rates another 25bp on Wednesday with ~20bps currently priced in — versus less than 10bp at one stage on Monday.%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down for the second day as treasury yields edged higher, mirroring moves in the UK and Europe. Gold fell and oil rose, while Bitcoin retreated for the first time in nearly a week.
Among notable movers in US premarket trading, First Republic Bank advanced more than 20%, rebounding from a slump to a record low as investors weighed a proposal from JPMorgan to help the struggling mid-size lender. Meta Platforms Inc. rose after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight from equal-weight. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:
First Republic Bank jumps as much as 27% in premarket trading, set to rebound after closing at a record low Monday, as investors digest a proposal from JPMorgan to help the struggling midsize lender. Shares in fellow regional banks also gain on Tuesday, with Western Alliance (WAL US) +3.9%, PacWest Bancorp (PACW US) +4.9%
Meta rises 2.5% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight from equal-weight, citing the social media giant’s pivot to increased efficiency.
First Majestic Silver drops 16% in US premarket trading after saying it’s temporarily suspending all mining activities and reducing its workforce at Jerritt Canyon effective immediately.
Keep an eye on Emerson Electric as it was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which noted the drop in the US electrical-equipment maker’s stock after it announced its bid for National Instruments.
Investors are tiptoeing back into riskier assets, reversing the knee-jerk selloff early Monday that followed a government-brokered takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG at the weekend by Swiss rival UBS Group AG. Banks’ Additional Tier 1 bonds rebounded in Europe and Asia after euro-zone and UK regulators gave reassurances on the risky debt category, which seized up after Credit Suisse shareholders took precedence over the holders of over $16 billion of the AT1s. Appetite for risk is also being fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious policy approach when it decides on interest rates on Wednesday.
“The resolution to the Credit Suisse situation has managed to calm markets down, though in the US, all eyes remain on First Republic Bank and whether it needs another show of support from major banks,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “If the Fed can calm markets down tomorrow, a longer-lasting rally in equity markets is on the cards.”
“About 10 days ago we had a series of risks emerge and now one by one, those tail risks are diminishing,” said Erick Muller, head of investment strategy at asset manager Muzinich & Co. Ltd. “It seems like everything has been put in place to resolve any liquidity issues — which is reassuring.”
The latest BofA fund manager survey showed investors now view a systemic credit event as the biggest tail risk to markets, followed by elevated inflation and hawkish central banks. Strategist Michael Hartnett recommended selling the S&P 500 above 4,100 to 4,200 points — between 3.8% and 6.3% higher than current levels.
Money markets are wagering on a hike of around a quarter-point as the cracks that emerged in the global banking industry discourage more aggressive tightening. Swap traders now see the Fed’s benchmark rate ending the year around 4%, while two weeks ago investors were betting on rates peaking close to 6%.
“It is possible that some central bankers will see recent events as policy finally getting some traction and tightening financial conditions via forcing markets to price in greater credit risk,” Mizuho International Plc strategists including Evelyne Gomez-Liechti wrote in a note. “This would allow central bankers to do a little less with policy rates.”
European markets rise for a second day as concerns around the health of the banking sector ease and investors look ahead to this week’s central-bank rate decisions while the demise of Credit Suisse appears to be in the rear-view mirror for investors who have piled back into European bank stocks. The Stoxx Banks Index is up 4.5% as most lenders saw their AT1 notes rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off. The Stoxx 600 is up 1.5%, with banks and insurance stocks leading gains, while consumer staples trail. Here are some of the biggest European movers:
Kingfisher shares rise as much as 3.4% after the UK home- improvement retailer reported FY pretax profit that beat estimates and said it plans to announce a new buyback program
Santander gains as much as 4.8%, Deutsche Bank 4.6% and Commerzbank 7.2% as concerns around the banking system ease following UBS’s rescue deal for Credit Suisse
RWE climbs as much as 3.2% after the German energy company reported new guidance and a higher dividend ahead of estimates
Nordea shares rise as much as 3.6% after Barclays upgraded the bank to overweight, though is cautious given Nordic banks’ vulnerability to deposit outflows and funding costs
Axfood gains as much as 5.7%, the most since June 2022, as both DNB and Carnegie upgrade the Swedish food retailer and wholesaler to buy from hold
Thyssenkrupp climbs as much as 5.9% after a report that CVC is considering offering €1 for the German industrial firm’s steel unit
Rockwool bounces as much as 5.5% as DNB upgrades the Danish insulation supplier to buy from hold, saying it thinks the firm’s margin guidance is “overly cautious”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as concerns of an escalation in the banking crisis eased, with lenders helping drive the day’s advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 1%, with Tencent, TSMC and AIA Group providing the biggest boosts among individual stocks. Japan was closed for a holiday. Financial stocks lent the most support among sub-indexes to the regional benchmark, which traded close to its 200-day moving average. Sentiment was helped by a rebound in riskier Additional Tier 1 bonds sold by banks in the region, along with news that US officials are studying ways to temporarily guarantee all bank deposits if the turmoil expands.
“Whenever there is bad news on individual banks, governments and big global banks are responding immediately, helping markets find a bottom,” analysts at Shinhan Investment Corp. wrote in a note. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China advanced more than 1% to lead a regional rebound. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.5% as Tencent climbed ahead of its earnings release. Korean stock gauges rose after China approved more foreign online game titles, fueling a rally among related stocks. Investors are waiting for the Fed’s monetary policy decision, due early Thursday in Asian hours, with expectations that the US central bank will refrain from an aggressive interest rate increase. Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said the Fed shouldn’t raise its benchmark rate.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.8% to close at 6,955.40, buoyed by a rebound in banks and mining shares. The rise comes following gains on Wall Street as immediate concerns over the global financial system dissipated. Australia’s central bank will consider pausing its policy tightening cycle next month, given that interest-rate settings are already restrictive and the economic outlook is uncertain, minutes of its March meeting showed. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 11,531.30.
Stocks in India rose, helped by a recovery in lenders who posted their biggest gains in two weeks as investors chose to look beyond the ongoing banking crisis and chase pockets of value. Tata Consultancy Services, the country’s biggest software exporter, slumped for a ninth straight session. This was the stock’s longest losing streak since November 2007, triggered by a surprise change in its top leadership. Meanwhile, the turmoil in US and European banks continued to dent the appeal for information technology service providers. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 0.8% to 58,074.68 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.7%. The gauges have now risen for three of the last four sessions but slipped more than 4% over the last one month as global equities remained under pressure on concerns of slowing growth and higher rates. The 50-stock Nifty gauge is now trading at 17.3 times its members’ estimated earnings for the next 12 months – the lowest in one year – and near its 10-year average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
In FX, the Dollar Index is flat after a three-day fall. The New Zealand dollar is the weakest among G-10 currencies, followed by the Japanese yen. The euro advanced to the strongest level in five weeks and short-end German bonds extended a drop as concerns about contagion in the European banking sector eased further following the rescue deal of Credit Suisse Group AG over the weekend. EUR/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 1.0770, the highest since Feb. 14.
In rates, the improving market sentiment dented government bonds and treasuries extend declines led by the short-end as US stock futures gain and money markets add to Fed tightening wagers ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision. Losses across the curve are led by an aggressive bear-flattening move in bunds, with 2-year German yields nearly 21bp higher on the day to 2.57% as traders also bet the ECB will raise rates again in May. The US 2-year yield rises 11bps to 4.09% while its 10-year peer climbs 5bps to 3.54%, flattening the 2s10s curve 6bps to -56bps. Traders bet on 20bps of Fed hikes this week and add as much as 17bps to tightening expectations this year. The US session includes 20-year bond auction reopening at 1pm, while a $15b 10-year TIPS sale is slated for Thursday. WI 20-year yield near 3.875% is around 10bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 0.2bp. Cash trading was closed in Tokyo for a Japanese holiday.
In commodities, crude futures rose for a second day with WTI rising 1.3% to trade near $68.50 after swinging in a $3-plus range on Monday. Traders are starting to return to risk markets after authorities stepped in to shore up the financial system. US officials are also studying ways they might temporarily expand protection for all deposits. Spot gold falls 0.6% to around $1,697. Bitcoin gains 0.4%.
To the day ahead now, we get the US existing home sales for February and the latest Philly Fed non-mfg survey. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lagarde and Villeroy, whilst the two-day FOMC meeting will be getting underway ahead of tomorrow’s decision. Lastly, earnings releases include Nike.
Market Snapshot
Australia’s central bank will consider pausing its policy tightening cycle next month, given interest-rate settings are already restrictive and the economic outlook is uncertain, minutes of its March meeting showed. BBG
Vanguard will shut its remaining business in China after a partial retreat two years ago, people familiar said. It will shut the Shanghai unit and exit a robo-advisory joint venture with Ant Group. The reversal comes as rivals including BlackRock and Fidelity strive to build up local operations as China’s recovery and a pension reform brighten prospects. BBG
UBS relies more on AT1 bonds for its capital than any other major lender in Europe. AT1s are the equivalent of about 28% of its highest quality regulatory capital, Bloomberg calculations show, just slightly more than for Barclays. The average exposure among the 16 biggest banks in Europe is about 16%. BBG
Financial market turmoil may do some of the ECB’s work for it if it dampens demand and inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday. “Clearly financial stability tensions might have an impact on demand and might actually do part of the work that would otherwise be done by monetary policy and interest rate hikes,” Lagarde told European lawmakers. RTRS
The Federal Home Loan Bank System issued $304 billion in debt last week, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public data. That’s almost double the $165 billion that liquidity-hungry lenders tapped from the Federal Reserve. BBG
US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand FDIC coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis. BBG
The jobs market may not be as robust as it seems as many job postings are “fake”, with the prospective employer having no intention of immediately filling the position in question. WSJ
US accounting rulemakers are being urged to rethink how banks should value their assets in financial statements, in the wake of the run on Silicon Valley Bank and pressure across the regional banking sector. Advocates of “fair value” accounting are urging the Financial Accounting Standards Board to force banks to recognize unrealized losses on securities such as those held by SVB, even when management insists they will never have to be sold. FT
Wall Street bank chief executives are trying to come up with a new plan for First Republic after a $30bn lifeline failed to arrest a sharp sell-off in the lender’s shares. The executives will discuss if anything more can be done for the California-based lender on the sidelines of a pre-planned gathering in Washington on Tuesday, which is being organized by the Financial Services Forum, one of the main industry lobby groups. FT
Pacific Investment Management Co. and Invesco Ltd. are among the largest holders of Credit Suisse’s so-called Additional Tier 1 bonds that have been wiped out after the bank’s takeover by UBS Group AG: BBG
First Republic Bank shares rallied in US premarket trading after falling to a record low Monday, as investors ponder what’s next for the struggling midsize lender following an offer of help from JPMorgan Chase & Co: BBG
Top Overnight News
S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 4,018
MXAP up 0.5% to 156.40
MXAPJ up 1.0% to 504.24
Nikkei down 1.4% to 26,945.67
Topix down 1.5% to 1,929.30
Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 19,258.76
Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,255.65
Sensex up 0.7% to 58,035.99
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,955.40
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,388.35
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 446.06
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0734
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $74.28/bbl
Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,967.56
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.35
A more detailed look at global markets
Asia-Pac stocks mostly tracked the gains on Wall St where some of the banking sector jitters dissipated following the Credit Suisse rescue and amid hopes FDIC’s deposit insurance amount could be increased. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in energy, financials and the mining-related sectors, while the RBA Minutes from the March meeting noted that the Board agreed to reconsider the case for pausing at the April meeting. Nikkei 225 was closed as Japanese participants observed the Vernal Equinox holiday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained as Hong Kong benefitted from strength in consumer stocks and the mainland was buoyed by the PBoC’s liquidity injection albeit with upside capped on higher money market rates.
Top Asian News
China is giving chipmakers new powers to guide a recovery in the industry with a handful of China’s most successful chip companies to get easier access to subsidies and more control over state-backed research, according to FT.
RBA March Minutes said the Board agreed to reconsider the case for pausing at the April meeting and that a pause would allow time to reassess the outlook for the economy, while it added that further tightening of monetary policy is likely required to lower inflation. RBA noted monetary policy was in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain, while these considerations meant that it would be appropriate at some point to hold the cash rate steady to assess more fully the effect of the interest rate increases to date. Furthermore, it said inflation is too high, the labour market is tight, business surveys are solid and sluggish productivity could lead to more persistent inflation.
European bourses are firmer on the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, as the region continues the positive APAC handover with specific banking-sector updates slim. Sectors are all in the green with Banking names the outperformer, SX7P +3.5%, and back at Friday’s best levels; albeit, the index has someway to go to recoup the pressure of recent days/weeks. Stateside, futures are similarly in the green though magnitudes are much more contained as participants await updates to First Republic (FRC) and the FDIC ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, ES +0.6%.
Top European News
The Times shadow monetary policy committee urges the BoE to continue raising interest rates this week. Two members said the Bank should stick to 50bps, five said 25bps and one said unchanged.
ECB’s Kazaks said uncertainty in financial markets is high and it is not possible to say that we have stopped hiking, while he added that European banks are well capitalised and financial resources are available, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s de Cos says he cannot validate the markets expectation of a 3.25% peak rate, via Expansion.
Swiss KOF: Inflation forecast at 2.6% (prev. 2.3%) and 1.5% (prev. 1.1%) in 2023 and 2024. Click here for more detail.
Bank headlines
US officials are examining ways to permit the FDIC to temporarily insure deposits beyond the current USD 250k cap on most accounts without the need for congressional approval, according to Bloomberg. There were also earlier reports that the House Freedom Caucus is against raising bank deposit guarantees.
US banking executives are to discuss at a Financial Services Forum event on Tuesday the next steps for First Republic (FRC), via FT citing sources.
Swiss Banking Association says Swiss banking credibility has not been destroyed by the Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) crisis, but the situation is not good.
ESMA Chair says reforms to make money market funds more resilient to economic shocks are needed sooner rather than later.
Australia’s prudential regulator has begun asking banks to declare their exposures to start-ups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and volatility at global lenders, according to AFR.
FX
The DXY is underpressure as the risk tone takes a more constructive tilt, with the index at the low-end of 103.24-103.51 parameters.
Amidst this, the EUR is the marginal outperformer as the single currency extends above 1.07 though has seemingly paused for breath at 1.0750 with specific catalysts thin.
Next best is the CHF, though this is more a recuperation of recent depreciation than any concerted upward move vs the USD while EUR/CHF is essentially flat, given the EUR’s relative strength.
Antipodeans are at the bottom of the G10 pile following data and RBA minutes which suggested that a pause could occur in April, currently AUD/USD and NZD/USD are below 0.67 and 0.62.
Additionally, given the above, the JPY has pared back much of Monday’s haven allure with USD/JPY around 25pips shy of Monday’s 132.64 high at best.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8763 vs exp. 6.8753 (prev. 6.8694)
Fixed Income
Bonds extend retreat from Monday’s lofty safe haven peaks as risk appetite continues to pick up amidst less financial sector stress.
Bunds down to 136.62 vs yesterday’s 140.30 Eurex best, Gilts to 104.65 from 107.33 and T-note 114-18+ compared to 116-24.
Solid 2053 DMO issuance provides UK debt with little support and 20 year US supply still to come.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are firmer in-fitting with the risk sentiment seen in European trade and with the complex attentive to commentary from Goldman Sachs, among others.
Specifically, the benchmarks are towards the top-end of USD 66.77-68.500/bbl and USD 72.82-7466/bbl parameters respectively.
Spot gold is softer given the relatively constructive tone with the yellow metal retreating further from Monday’s USD 2009/oz peak to USD 1963/oz at worst while base metals are benefitting from broader action and reports relating to China’s steel output.
Goldman Sachs’ Commodities Head Currie sees upside of USD 5-10/bbl for crude, saying a Fed pause would be bullish for oil.
Trafigura says they do not see major impact on industry from Credit Suisse (CSGN SW); current oil prices are not encouraging production. Still moving limited Russian refined products and considering whether to resume more Russian oil trade, CEO does not see much downside for oil at this point. Adds, that the existing LME Nickel contract is not fit for purpose.
Gunvor Co-head of trading says with all these new refineries coming on stream, we are not very bullish on refined products down the road; does not think oil price can go over USD 100/bbl by December.
Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital sees oil price at USD 140/bbl at year end.
TotalEnergies (TTE GP) Normandy refinery (250k BPD) is to be shutdown amid strike action, according to a statement.
Norwegian oil production (Feb) 1.776mln BPD (vs. prev. M/M 1.754mln BPD), gas production 9.9bcm (vs. prev. M/M 11.1mln BPD).
China is reportedly considering cutting 2023 crude steel output by circa. 2.5%, via Reuters citing sources.
Geopolitics
Chinese President Xi said China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, while President Xi told Russian President Putin that ties with Russia are China’s strategic choice.
Chinese President Xi has invited Russia President Putin to visit China, via Ria. Subsequently, Russia’s Kremlin says Putin and Xi had a throughout exchange on Monday including on Chinese peace proposal for Ukraine, declined to give more details.
Iran is interested in developing peaceful nuclear and renewable energy cooperation with Russia, according to RIA.
Japanese PM Kishida said he will visit Kyiv and meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Japan and Ukraine leaders will hold a summit today.
South Korea imposed sanctions on four individuals and six entities linked to North Korea’s weapons programmes, while it announced a watch list to ban the export of items related to North Korea’s satellite development, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
08:30: March Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior 3.2
10:00: Feb. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 5.0%, prior -0.7%
10:00: Feb. Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.2m, prior 4m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from what promises to be a very sunny warm day in Lisbon which makes a nice change from the rain in London as I left yesterday as we hit the first official day of spring. Like the seasons, it did feel like a new beginning for markets as they finally saw some positivity in the UBS-Credit Suisse deal after an open that felt like we might be in an ice age rather than starting to see green seasonal shoots.
It’s worth looking at how bad the open was yesterday and why it turned around. The STOXX 600 fell by almost -2% within 20 minutes of the opening bell, whilst UBS was down almost -16% with European bank AT1s down around 10-15%. It was a similar story on the rates side too, since the 10yr Treasury yield hit its lowest intraday level in over 6 months, at just 3.286% (-14.3bps at that point).
It all turned when we got a statement from the European Banking Authority that explicitly set out that the EU’s practice was that “common equity instruments are the first ones to absorb losses”, and that “only after their full use would Additional Tier One be required to be written down”. A similar statement was then issued by the Bank of England, which said that the UK’s bank resolution framework “has a clear statutory order” as used in the case of SVB UK, which prioritised AT1 ahead of CET1. With that reassurance, AT1s recovered somewhat over the session and we saw a broader boost in bank stocks across the board.
In more detail, Euro Sub-Financial CDS was as much as +46bps wider on the open yesterday before closing -13bps tighter overall, while the senior index was +18bps wider just after the open before finishing -12bps tighter by the end of trading. The STOXX Banks index advanced +1.97% (from -6.61% at the early lows), as all 19 of the 23 members moved higher on the day.
This was an extremely important announcement as most financial investors felt very uncomfortable with the details of the Swiss merger and what it did for AT1 bondholders rights in the resolution pecking order. The EU/UK clarity was a very good move and net net probably helps the European economy longer-term as to permanently increase the cost of bank capital would be counterproductive. As we’ve shown for the last few days, CS was massively decoupled from the rest of the European banking sector in CDS terms over the last several months, so whilst harder times are to come economically, this announcement and the prior fairly stable European banking system outside of CS, should cut off contagion risks.
US banks have a few more issues to deal with still though and although the KBW Banks index was up +0.79% on the day, they were as much as +2.4% higher before selling off steadily after Europe went home.
This came as concerns continue to percolate regarding US bank First Republic, even after last week’s move by other US banks to deposit $30bn. S&P cut their credit rating to B+ from BB+ over the weekend and yesterday saw their shares end the day down -47.08%, which builds on a decline of more than -80% already over the previous two weeks. There was a short intraday rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was leading discussions with other CEOs to stabilise First Republic, which could involve some or all of the $30bn in deposits being converted into a capital infusion. Despite these headlines, the stock reverted lower to finish near the lows of the day.
Overnight, it was reported that US officials at the Treasury Department and FDIC were studying ways to temporarily expand their deposit coverages in case the current situation expands into a full-blown crisis of confidence. The White House was looking into whether federal regulators would be able to increase the $250k cap without an act of Congress as headlines suggest Republicans would oppose the move.
Aside from the First Republic issues, the more positive shift in sentiment saw investors put growing weight on the probability of the Fed hiking rates tomorrow. For instance, shortly after the European open when everything had slumped, just 9bps worth of hikes were being priced in by futures. But that bounced back over the rest of the session, and by the close a 17.8bps hike was priced in, which is equivalent to a 71.2% probability. So for the time being at least (and clearly things are subject to change in these conditions), it would still be a surprise relative to expectations if the Fed didn’t go ahead.
Last night, our own US economists published their preview of tomorrow’s Fed meeting (link here), and they agree with the view that the Fed will opt for 25bps. Our economists expect the Fed to follow the ECB’s lead and raise rates in line with expectations, do away with forward guidance, but signal a continued tightening bias. They do not expect much change to the dot plot or the SEP from December, and Powell will also likely emphasise the heightened uncertainty surrounding those forecasts in his press conference.
Those expectations of a Fed hike meant that yields posted a small increase yesterday, with the 10yr Treasury yield ending the day up +5.6bps at 3.485%. As with bank stocks though, that only came after a big turnaround earlier in the session, having recovered by nearly +20bps from their intraday low of 3.286%. It was much the same story in Europe too, with the 10yr bund yield up from a low of 1.91% after the open before closing at 2.125%, leaving it up by a net +1.7bps over the day.
For equities it was also a positive session, at least once we got past the European morning. By the close, the STOXX 600 had advanced +0.98%, capping off a turnaround of almost +3% on an intraday basis from the initial lows. And over in the US, the S&P 500 was up +0.89%, which now leaves it down by just -1.01% since its close on March 8 before the concerns about SVB really took hold. Tech stocks were the main underperformer yesterday, with Software (-0.8%) the worst-performing industry, but even so the NASDAQ still gained +0.39%.
This morning in Asia a cautious rally continues. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.33%), the KOSPI (+0.30%), the CSI (+0.42%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) are trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with Treasuries not trading overnight.
In central bank news, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent meeting were less hawkish as the central bank indicated a near-term pause in interest rate increases at its upcoming policy meeting scheduled on April 4th, as uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook persists. In response to the RBA meeting minutes, the Australian dollar rose to a high of 0.6726 versus the US dollar before settling at $0.6687 as we go to press. Meanwhile, 10yr government bonds rallied with yields dropping -4bps to 3.20% as I type.
Amidst all the financial news, one more positive story in the background for consumers (albeit for negative return reasons) has been the continued decline in commodity prices. For instance, European natural gas futures (-8.24%) closed at a 19-month low of €39.325 per megawatt-hour yesterday, which brings their decline over March so far to -15.73%. Oil prices were under pressure for most of the day before a late rally in the US left Brent crude up +1.12% to $73.79/bbl and WTI contracts were up +1.35% to $67.64/bbl. Both contracts reached their lowest level since December 2021 intraday. Overall the recent drop in energy prices will benefit consumers, as well as central banks since it’ll offer them a helpful tailwind on the inflation side. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that much of the decline is thanks to growing concerns about a recession, with oil traditionally being a more cyclical commodity in those circumstances.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German ZEW survey for March, Canada’s CPI for February, and US existing home sales for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lagarde and Villeroy, whilst the two-day FOMC meeting will be getting underway ahead of tomorrow’s decision. Lastly, earnings releases include Nike.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Constructive APAC sentiment continues with focus on FRC, FDIC and FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 06:57 AM
Sentiment remains constructive in Europe after a similar APAC handover with specific European-banking drivers limited.
Stateside, the tone is in-fitting but to a slightly lesser extent awaiting updates to First Republic and the FDIC before Wednesday’s FOMC.
DXY has been pressured by the tone, with JPY giving back Monday’s gains while the CHF attempts to recover.
EGBs & USTS continue to pullback from earlier haven-induced peaks with well-received UK supply having little impact
Commodities are, generally, benefitting from the risk tone; though, spot gold continues to retreat from Monday’s USD 2009/oz peak
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales, Xi & Putin (2/3), Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Enria, Supply from the US.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
BANKS
US officials are examining ways to permit the FDIC to temporarily insure deposits beyond the current USD 250k cap on most accounts without the need for congressional approval, according to Bloomberg. There were also earlier reports that the House Freedom Caucus is against raising bank deposit guarantees.
US banking executives are to discuss at a Financial Services Forum event on Tuesday the next steps for First Republic (FRC), via FT citing sources.
Swiss Banking Association says Swiss banking credibility has not been destroyed by the Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) crisis, but the situation is not good.
ESMA Chair says reforms to make money market funds more resilient to economic shocks are needed sooner rather than later.
Australia’s prudential regulator has begun asking banks to declare their exposures to start-ups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and volatility at global lenders, according to AFR.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are firmer on the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, as the region continues the positive APAC handover with specific banking-sector updates slim.
Sectors are all in the green with Banking names the outperformer, SX7P +3.5%, and back at Friday’s best levels; albeit, the index has someway to go to recoup the pressure of recent days/weeks.
Stateside, futures are similarly in the green though magnitudes are much more contained as participants await updates to First Republic (FRC) and the FDIC ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, ES +0.6%.
The DXY is underpressure as the risk tone takes a more constructive tilt, with the index at the low-end of 103.24-103.51 parameters.
Amidst this, the EUR is the marginal outperformer as the single currency extends above 1.07 though has seemingly paused for breath at 1.0750 with specific catalysts thin.
Next best is the CHF, though this is more a recuperation of recent depreciation than any concerted upward move vs the USD while EUR/CHF is essentially flat, given the EUR’s relative strength.
Antipodeans are at the bottom of the G10 pile following data and RBA minutes which suggested that a pause could occur in April, currently AUD/USD and NZD/USD are below 0.67 and 0.62.
Additionally, given the above, the JPY has pared back much of Monday’s haven allure with USD/JPY around 25pips shy of Monday’s 132.64 high at best.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8763 vs exp. 6.8753 (prev. 6.8694)
WTI and Brent are firmer in-fitting with the risk sentiment seen in European trade and with the complex attentive to commentary from Goldman Sachs, among others.
Specifically, the benchmarks are towards the top-end of USD 66.77-68.500/bbl and USD 72.82-7466/bbl parameters respectively.
Spot gold is softer given the relatively constructive tone with the yellow metal retreating further from Monday’s USD 2009/oz peak to USD 1963/oz at worst while base metals are benefitting from broader action and reports relating to China’s steel output.
Goldman Sachs’ Commodities Head Currie sees upside of USD 5-10/bbl for crude, saying a Fed pause would be bullish for oil.
Trafigura says they do not see major impact on industry from Credit Suisse (CSGN SW); current oil prices are not encouraging production. Still moving limited Russian refined products and considering whether to resume more Russian oil trade, CEO does not see much downside for oil at this point. Adds, that the existing LME Nickel contract is not fit for purpose.
Gunvor Co-head of trading says with all these new refineries coming on stream, we are not very bullish on refined products down the road; does not think oil price can go over USD 100/bbl by December.
Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital sees oil price at USD 140/bbl at year end.
TotalEnergies (TTE GP) Normandy refinery (250k BPD) is to be shutdown amid strike action, according to a statement.
Norwegian oil production (Feb) 1.776mln BPD (vs. prev. M/M 1.754mln BPD), gas production 9.9bcm (vs. prev. M/M 11.1mln BPD).
China is reportedly considering cutting 2023 crude steel output by circa. 2.5%, via Reuters citing sources.
The Times shadow monetary policy committee urges the BoE to continue raising interest rates this week. Two members said the Bank should stick to 50bps, five said 25bps and one said unchanged.
ECB’s Kazaks said uncertainty in financial markets is high and it is not possible to say that we have stopped hiking, while he added that European banks are well capitalised and financial resources are available, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s de Cos says he cannot validate the markets expectation of a 3.25% peak rate, via Expansion.
Swiss KOF: Inflation forecast at 2.6% (prev. 2.3%) and 1.5% (prev. 1.1%) in 2023 and 2024. Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE DATA
UK PSNB, GBP (Feb) 15.859B GB (Prev. -6.242B GB, Rev. -9.104B GB); Ex Banks GBP (Feb) 16.680B GB vs. Exp. 11.4B GB (Prev. -5.421B GB)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 13.0 vs. Exp. 16.4 (Prev. 28.1); Current Conditions (Mar) -46.5 vs. Exp. -44.3 (Prev. -45.1)
EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Mar) 10.0 (Prev. 29.7)
GEOPOLITICS
Chinese President Xi said China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, while President Xi told Russian President Putin that ties with Russia are China’s strategic choice.
Chinese President Xi has invited Russia President Putin to visit China, via Ria. Subsequently, Russia’s Kremlin says Putin and Xi had a throughout exchange on Monday including on Chinese peace proposal for Ukraine, declined to give more details.
Iran is interested in developing peaceful nuclear and renewable energy cooperation with Russia, according to RIA.
Japanese PM Kishida said he will visit Kyiv and meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Japan and Ukraine leaders will hold a summit today.
South Korea imposed sanctions on four individuals and six entities linked to North Korea’s weapons programmes, while it announced a watch list to ban the export of items related to North Korea’s satellite development, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is little changed on the session after marked upside recently, currently holding around the USD 28k mark; though, it remains towards the top end of USD 27.4-28.28k parameters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks mostly tracked the gains on Wall St where some of the banking sector jitters dissipated following the Credit Suisse rescue and amid hopes FDIC’s deposit insurance amount could be increased.
ASX 200 was led by outperformance in energy, financials and the mining-related sectors, while the RBA Minutes from the March meeting noted that the Board agreed to reconsider the case for pausing at the April meeting.
Nikkei 225 was closed as Japanese participants observed the Vernal Equinox holiday.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained as Hong Kong benefitted from strength in consumer stocks and the mainland was buoyed by the PBoC’s liquidity injection albeit with upside capped on higher money market rates.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China is giving chipmakers new powers to guide a recovery in the industry with a handful of China’s most successful chip companies to get easier access to subsidies and more control over state-backed research, according to FT.
RBA March Minutes said the Board agreed to reconsider the case for pausing at the April meeting and that a pause would allow time to reassess the outlook for the economy, while it added that further tightening of monetary policy is likely required to lower inflation. RBA noted monetary policy was in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain, while these considerations meant that it would be appropriate at some point to hold the cash rate steady to assess more fully the effect of the interest rate increases to date. Furthermore, it said inflation is too high, the labour market is tight, business surveys are solid and sluggish productivity could lead to more persistent inflation.
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.74 PTS OR 0.64% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 238.05 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.81% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8722//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8719// /Oil UP TO 67,79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 74,24 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
Trouble again as Kim Jong Un simulates a nuclear attack on South Korea
(zerohedge)
Kim Jong Un Oversees ‘Simulated Nuclear Attack’ On South Korea
MONDAY, MAR 20, 2023 – 07:20 PM
After days of repeat smaller missile tests aimed at sending a message to Washington amid joint US-South Korea military drills, which are the largest in years, North Korea on Monday said it launched a ballistic missile over the weekend as part of a simulated nuclear attack on the south.
Pyongyang said of Sunday launch that it was “carried out under the tense situation in which a large-scale war drill is being frantically scaled up by the U.S.-South Korean allied forces to invade the DPRK and U.S. nuclear strategic assets are massively brought to South Korea.”
This appears a reference to the US strategic bombers joining the drills. While there were reports that the north’s provocative Sunday launch involved a projectile tipped with a mock nuclear warhead, Pyongyang still claimed it had “no adverse effect on the security of the neighboring countries.”
It reportedly exploded about 800 meters above targeted waters. According to further details of the launch:
The suspected ballistic missile launched by North Korea on Sunday reached a maximum altitude of approximately 50km (31 miles) and flew a distance of approximately 800km (497 miles), according to Japan’s defense ministry. It was fired from the Dongchang-ri area of North Pyongan province in North Korea and landed in the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, according to the South Korean military.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) has meanwhile emphasized is remaining vigilant and prepared for more launches coming out of the north, “while maintaining a full readiness posture through close cooperation with the US.”Kim Jong Un monitors missile launch with his daughter, via KCNA
Other regional powers are closely monitoring too, especially Japan. Its defense ministry said in a statement that these launches “threaten the peace and security of Japan, the region and the international community.”
The ongoing 11-day Freedom Shield exercises between the United States and South Korea are being widely described as the largest war games among the allies in a half-decade. North Korea earlier warned it is ready to initiate the “toughest counteraction against the most vicious plots of the US and its followers.”
END
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/RUSSIA
Off to a strong start:
Putin To Xi: “We Support Chinese Yuan Use With Asia, Africa, Latin America”
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 02:03 PM
In a ceremony at the Kremlin, and on the second day of Chinese leader’s Xi Jinping’s visit, Putin and Xi kicked off formal talks which will focus on the Ukraine crisis. They shook hands and stood side by side as their respective national anthems played, aired on state television. Following the meeting, they held a joint press conference, to be followed by a state dinner at the Kremlin.
Last night’s greeting and starting ‘informal’ talks lasted about 4-and-a-half hours. In addition to Ukraine being high on the agenda for the ongoing summit, Xi outlined in initial comments Tuesday that China wishes to expand cooperation with Russia on trade, and hopes that Russia promotes liberalization, facilitation of trade and investment, alongside both sides maintaining security and stability of industrial and supply chains. Importantly, Xi invited Putin to travel to China at some point this year. Putin showed willingness on these points, also stressing that Russia stands ready to meet China’s growing energy needs.
Putin also said his country stands ready to support Chinese business replacing Western companies inside Russia that left in the wake of the Ukraine war. “We are ready to support Chinese business in replacing Western enterprises that left Russia,” Putin said.
But among the most important statements to come out of the day’s formal China-Russia summit and press conference was concerning the further erasing of dollar-reliance in favor of the yuan. Putin said, “We support the use of Chinese yuan in payments between Russia and countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America,” and further expressed confidence that such “forms of payments will be developed between Russian partners and their colleagues in third countries.” Further:
“National currencies are more and more actively used” in the bilateral trade and two thirds of the trade turnover between Russia and China are already “made in rubles and yuan,” Putin noted.
“This practice should be encouraged further” and mutual presence of financial and banking institutions on Russian and Chinese markets should be expanded, he added.
But bear in mind, as we noted previously, while this might be the only option for Putin and Russia for now, observers warn that this could have ramifications for Moscow.
“Russia is swapping its dollar dependence for reliance on the yuan. Should relations with China deteriorate, Russia may face reserve losses and payment disruptions,” wrote Alexandra Prokopenko, an independent analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Additionally, Russia is not alone. The Iraqi central bank announced Wednesday that, for the first time, it plans to allow trade from China to be settled directly in yuan instead of the US dollar to improve access to foreign currency.
At the very moment that Xi and Putin wrapped up their meeting and transitioned to their televised joint press conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a significant allegation, picking up on prior assertions from Washington.
Stoltenberg said that NATO has “seen some signs” that Russia requested lethal aid from Beijing in order to strengthen its forces in Ukraine.
“We haven’t seen any proof that China is delivering lethal weapons to Russia, but we have seen some signs that this has been a request from Russia, and that this is an issue that is considered in Beijing by the Chinese authorities,” he told reporters from Brussels.
“China should not provide lethal aid to Russia. That would be to support an illegal war,” Stoltenberg warned. Both countries have vehemently denied that this is the case, or is on the table.
On the same day, Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine in a show of solidarity.
CNN details of the visit, which appears intended precisely as an act of defiant rejection of warming Russia-China ties by US-backed Japan:
Kishida arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday afternoon local time, and also traveled to Bucha, the town just north of the Ukrainian capital that has become synonymous with Russian atrocities and alleged war crimes.
Emine Dzheppa, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, said the country “is happy to welcome” the Japanese premier.
“This historic visit is a sign of solidarity and strong cooperation between Ukraine and Japan,” she tweeted Tuesday alongside pictures of Kishida’s arrival. “We are grateful to Japan for its strong support and contribution to our future victory,” added Dzheppa.
Meanwhile, Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia Kirill Babae has described the significance of Xi’s trip as follows: “The meeting of the two leaders demonstrates to the whole world that Russian-Chinese relations will flourish regardless of pressure from the West, and regardless of any political or economic situation. [Both] sides have made their choice. That choice is in favor of strengthening friendship and the comprehensive strategic partnership,” he said.
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UK
UK strikes will cause a tsunami of unrest for North Sea oil and gas
(Charles Kennedy/OilPrice.com)
UK Strikes To Cause A ‘Tsunami’ Of Unrest For North Sea Oil And Gas
Dozens of oil and gas platforms in the UK North Sea could come to a standstill in the coming weeks after 1,400 offshore workers at five contractor companies have voted to initiate strikes to demand better pay and working conditions, Unite the union said on Monday.
The industrial action is expected to hit platforms of major companies operating on the UK Continental Shelf including BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, CNRI, EnQuest, Harbour Energy, and Ithaca Energy, the union said in a statement.
The prospective action includes electrical, production, and mechanical technicians in addition to deck crew, scaffolders crane operators, pipefitters, platers, and riggers working for Bilfinger UK Limited, Stork construction, Petrofac Facilities Management, the Wood Group UK Limited, and Sparrows Offshore Services, according to the union. Offshore workers at those five companies have overwhelmingly voted in recent days to begin strike action as they demand a better deal on jobs, pay, and conditions.
“Unite, whose members will take action at companies enjoying record-busting profits, predicts that platforms and offshore installations will be brought to a ‘standstill’ due to the specialised roles its members undertake,” the union said.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said, “Oil and gas companies have been given free rein to enjoy massive windfall profits in the North Sea; drilling concessions are effectively licences to print money.”
“1400 offshore workers are now set to take strike action against these employers who are raking it but refusing to give them a fair share of the pie. This will create a tsunami of industrial unrest in the offshore sector,” Graham added.
“Unite will support these members every step of the way in their fight for better jobs, pay and conditions.”
Strike action is set to hit various oil and gas platforms offshore the UK from March 29 and until June 7 in a series of 24, 48, and 72-hour stoppages, the union said.
This week, workers at Petrofac BP and at Worley Services UK Limited on Harbour Energy platforms are also expected to vote on strike actions in disputes over pay.
end
UK
UK Sending Depleted Uranium Shells To Ukraine Tantamount To Using ‘Dirty Bomb’: Kremlin
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 12:59 PM
The UK’s junior Defense Minister Annabel Goldie told Parliament on Tuesday, “Alongside our granting of a squadron of Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, we will be providing ammunition including armor piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium.”
“Such rounds are highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armored vehicles.” News of Britain sending armor-piercing tank rounds for Challenger II tanks to Kiev triggered a fierce reaction from the Kremlin, with a strong-worded statement emphasizing that such a weapon will be treated as tantamount to using a nuclear dirty bomb.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in words posted to Telegram highlighted the dangerous health effects of depleted uranium for all when introduced on the battlefield.
“Yugoslav scenario. These shells not only kill, but infect the environment and cause oncology in people living on these lands,” she said, in reference to cancer and other deadly ailments.
“By the way, it is naive to believe that only those against whom all this will be used will become victims. In Yugoslavia, NATO soldiers, in particular the Italians, were the first to suffer. Then they tried for a long time to get compensation from NATO for lost health. But their claims were denied,” she said.
Zakharova then added, “When will they wake up in Ukraine?… Their benefactors poison them.” During the US occupation of Iraq, use of depleted uranium by NATO allies was linked to cancer and birth defects among the Iraqi population.
According to a summary of the hazardous weapons technology in the journal Scientific American:
Used as ammunition, it penetrates the thick steel encasing enemy tanks; used as armor, it protects troops against attack. And when it was used in the Gulf War and later during the Allied bombing of Yugoslavia and Kosovo, depleted uranium (DU) was hailed as the new silver bullet that would solve most of the military’s problems.
After the end of Operation Allied Force, however, several Italian soldiers were diagnosed with leukemia. Politicians and the media soon forged a link between the disease and depleted uranium use. They further drew a parallel with Gulf War Syndrome, and in no time, depleted uranium became the Agent Orange of the Balkan conflict.
Depleted uranium presents not only a radioactive hazard, but it is also a strong toxin, and when these munitions are used this toxicity and radioactive material can be scattered across a broad area that saw prior battles, and later encountered by humans.
On the same day, reports emerged of a new push by US lawmakers to introduce cluster munitions to Ukraine, which are banned by some international treaties and condemned by human rights organizations.
END
CO CO BONDS//EUROPE
Yields double as few want to invest in this garbage. These bonds are only in Europe
(zerohedge
“Like Several Rate Hikes In One Day”: Yields On AT1 Debt Double Overnight After Shock Credit Suisse Wipeout
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 12:40 PM
In the aftermath of the shocking reversal of the sacrosanct liquidation waterfall priority…
… in which Credit Suisse shareholders received CHF3 billion in value even as the bank’s entire Contingent Convertible (Additional Tier 1) junior creditor class was wiped out…
… European’s regulators rushed to calm furious investors – who suddenly dreaded their exposure to AT1 bonds at every European bank, which at last count accounted for some $275BN in securities – and assured them that Credit Suisse was a unique case and that it wouldn’t repeat elsewhere if and when more liquidations and bailins had to kick in.
They failed.
One day after Europe’s panicked response where one official after another lied through their teeth that equity will never again survive a full AT1 wipe out…
… over the past 24 hours we have seen wholesale dumping of AT1 debt whose cost has essentially doubled overnight, a problem for European banks that use the notes as a crucial capital buffer.
As shown in the chart below, yields on a Bloomberg index of AT1s in Europe surged following Credit Suisse Group AG’s controversial wipeout of the risky debt, to an average of 15.4%, although they since eased slightly. In early February, yields on AT1s were as low as 7.8%, according to a multi-currency index compiled by Bloomberg. In fact, as of last night, the yield on the AT1 index surpassed the worst of the covid crunch, when yields briefly topped 15% and then tumbled after the coordinated central bank bailout of the world.
“This is a big tightening in financial conditions,” Gordon Shannon, a fund manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “Bank funding is more expensive now and banks will lend less. This is like several rate hikes in one day and there is potential for this to play out across the rest of the market.”
The historic collapse in AT1 notes is a headache for banks, which hold this type of bond as a way to bolster financial resources that’s usually cheaper than normal equity such as shares. They were created by European regulators after the financial crisis as a way to impose losses on creditors when banks start to fail without resorting to taxpayer money.
According to Bloomberg calculations, there’s is now more than $258 billion of this type of debt outstanding in Europe, excluding the $17 billion written off by Credit Suisse. Of this, more than $20 billion of notes have first call dates this year, which means they may repriced to a much higher yield in coming months.
As those dates loom, banks will need to decide whether to issue new AT1 debt at the higher yields, or find another way to raise capital. One possibility, according to Goldman Sachs, is to replace AT1 capital with CET1 capital — or common shares — though this has traditionally been more expensive; at that point the bank may as well sell common stock.
While at some point yields will drop, in the immediate term JPM warned that the need to refinance AT1 debt could become a problem for the wholesale funding costs of European banks.
“While most banks were paying 8-10% coupon cost in recent issuance of AT1, we expect that credit investors are now likely to demand a higher risk premium across the spectrum, with the cost of AT1 issuance potentially rising into double digits,” JPMorgan analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note. The cost of equity in the sector will also rise well into double digits, they said.
And in yet another typical European clusterfuck, at the same time the continent’s regulations about banks’ capital buffers which were established after the financial crisis, means they may have little alternative but to keep issuing junior debt and accept the higher costs that come with it.
“AT1s still have a role to play in the capital structure,” said Julien de Saussure, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “Regulators could look at this and think they have not played their role right and change the triggers or look to grandfather the format and move to something else — but I think that is wishful thinking.”
There was a silver lining: after Monday’s historical wipeout, AT1 bonds posted modest advances in Europe and Asia after panic subsided, and investors heeded regulators’ assurances that the wipeout in Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 notes wouldn’t happen in their jurisdictions under similar circumstances.
Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA led the gain in AT1s, following a recovery in Asia, where bonds including those from Westpac Banking Corp. were quoted higher. The notes have only recovered some of their losses. Credit risk across both regions also fell, with indexes tracking credit default swaps linked to high-yield and investment-grade bonds in Europe erasing most of their widening since Credit Suisse roiled global markets.
“The fact that central banks and regulators in euro zone and UK came out and said ‘this is a Swiss decision and this is not the way in Europe,’ — this commitment on the AT1 asset class was important, it came quickly and it was good news,” said Erick Muller, head of product and investment strategy at Muzinich & Co. in London.
Alas, regulators and central bankers have a habit of lying “when it gets serious” and it has rarely been as serious as it is right now. So those skeptical to allocate cash to an asset that is here today but may be gone tomorrow may be wise to wait and see how the AT1 tranches is treated in the next European bank failure. Luckily, with the ECB hiking 50bps last week and set to hike even more next, they won’t have long to wait.
END
5.RUSSIA//UKRAINE//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
//RUSSIA//UKRAINE
Robert H
Foolish
Any such entry into Ukraine means they are flown by American or Polish pilots and we will see an escalation that can easily go terribly wrong.
end
UKRAINE/US
Another $350 million aid for Ukraine
(zerohedge)
US Unveils $350M More Defense Aid For Ukraine, Condemns Xi-Putin Meeting
MONDAY, MAR 20, 2023 – 06:40 PM
On Monday US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken once again emphasized that the Biden administration remains ready to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
He also unveiled the latest defense aid package – at $350 million including more missiles and air defense missiles, listed among these more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and howitzers, ammo for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, anti-tank weapons as well as and riverine boats, according to The Hill. Via Reuters
“This week, as Russia’s unconscionable war of aggression against Ukraine continues at great human cost, we are again reminded of the boundless courage and steadfast resolve of the Ukrainian people, and the strong support for Ukraine across the international community,” Blinken said.
The Hillreviews concerning total defense aid pledged thus far, “With Monday’s announcement, the United States has now committed more than $32 billion in lethal aid to Ukraine through presidential drawdown since Russia first attacked the country more than a year ago.”
Blinken also on Monday condemned the visit of China’s President Xi to Putin to talk Ukraine peace…
“That President Xi is traveling to Russia days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the Kremlin accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine, and instead of even condemning them, it would rather provide diplomatic cover for Russia to continue to commit those very crimes,” Blinken said.
Xi Jinping’s visit “suggests that China feels no responsibility to hold the president accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine,” the US top diplomat stated.
Blinken described China’s 12-point Ukraine peace plan as essentially nothing but a scheme to provide diplomatic cover to Russia’s war crimes. Despite all of this, Zelensky himself has maintained some degree of openness, and is likely to hold a phone call with Xi in the coming days to explore potential ceasefire options.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/CRIMEA
Putin will not be happy with this: Ukraine destroy Russian cruise missiles in a drone attack
(zerohedge)
Russian Cruise Missiles Destroyed In Drone Attack On Crimea Amid Xi Visit, Ukraine Says
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 09:44 AM
Ukraine’s defense ministry on Tuesday has touted the Monday night destruction of Russian cruise missiles which were stationed in Crimea. Videos posted on social media showed a series of explosions in the northern part of Crimea, centered on the town of Dzhankoy, a key logistics hub through which a railway line runs.
The Ukrainian military is saying that a cargo of Russian Kalibr cruise missiles was successfully destroyed in what appears to have been a drone attack. While not directly owning up to the operation, Kiev is hailing the ‘mystery’ attack deep inside Russian-held territory.
“The mysterious series of blasts continues the process of Russia’s demilitarization and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for de-occupation,”a statement Ukrainian Military Intelligence said.Image source: BBC/Twitter
Russian media sources indicated a “night attack by Ukrainian drones” on a technical school as well as residential areas. Up to five locations were reportedly targeted, the Russian media sources also claiming they were all shot down – though little can be confirmed. According to a description in BBC:
Dzhankoi has been used by Russian forces as a rail hub between Crimea and other areas of occupied Ukraine. Russian TV reports said that Tuesday’s strike had not caused any damage to rail infrastructure.
Russia’s investigative authority said a residential building and a shop were damaged, according to initial findings. All the targets were civilian, it claimed.
The overnight attack seems to be Kiev’s “answer” to President Putin’s surprise visit to Sevastopol over the weekend, where he toured sites and met with Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhayev on the 9th anniversary of Kremlin joining Russia after the 2014 ‘popular referendum’ (which Ukraine and the West calls an ‘illegal’ annexation).
The timing of the provocative drone attack operation on Crimea is also interesting given China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Monday for the first time since the war began, meeting with Putin to discuss the Beijing-proposed peace plan.
On Tuesday it was announced that Xi has invited Putin to visit China at some point this year, which received a positive response.
Concerning the latest from the 3-day visit, TASS details, “On Monday he held a one-on-one meeting with Putin that lasted about 4 1/2 hours. Talks are scheduled to continue in the Kremlin after 3 pm on Tuesday. The leaders are expected to make statements for the press afterward.”
Location of the fresh drone attack in northern Crimea…Google Maps/Yahoo
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Robert H to us:
Colossal “mushroom” on the Dnieper: Russians blow up armored train & Leopard 2 from Poland – Reserves and mercenary base hit – WarNews247
It is well known that NATO is gathering a force that has been reequipped and under the direct command of NATO using Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries for a southern push in Zaphorizhia. The only reason the attack has not started is the weather. It is raining everyday making it impossible for tanks to move through fields. As soon as weather permits the great spring offensive will commence. Clearly the Russians understand and will detract from its’ combat effectiveness by destroying supply lines and equipment. As for Bakhmut, Zelensky has to look elsewhere for reserves as this Southern formation if used would severe money flow so other cannon fodder will be used. Just south of Bakhmut is another cauldron where 1200 Ukrainian troops are cut off so this is another problem. And there is a 3rd cauldron in the making. Now for some cold irony. The US spent a fortune training Afghan troops to fight the Taliban. These troops were trained in close combat along with artillery units using HIMARS. When Joe abandoned the weapons there he also abandoned these troops to death at the hand of the Taliban. They fled with their families to neighboring countries living in squalor and being unwanted refugees. In order to survive all they have to sell is the skill sets taught by the US military as they are unable to work ( forbidden ) in the neighboring countries. So what to do? Join Wagner and fight for Russia for pay to support their families. Yes, there is now a small brigade of such troops wanting to pay back America for abandoning them and their families to certain death equipped on the ground using Russian arms and comically using HIMARS artillery bought from the Ukrainians against the Ukrainians with captured artillery shells paid for by America. You cannot make this up. What a shit show!
Polish ambassador’s shock statement: “Warsaw will declare war on Russia as soon as Ukraine is defeated” – Moscow: “Coalition of the Willing” will be crushed (vid) – WarNews247
As previously written, the next sacrifice for the Neocon agenda. Common sense says Ukraine lost this dumb conflict before it started. Wait until the AZOV crowd flees into Western Europe and the turmoil that will cause. Poland should take serious notes on what equipment Russia sparsely has used because it will unleash destruction on a scale that will make the current conflict look tame.
Since she went on kidney dialysis two years ago, she’s had a heart attack and a cardiac episode associated with her thrice-weekly treatments.
Her energy is low as her other vital organs slowly fail. Her blood pressure is out of control—hovering at around 200 systolic over “100-something”diastolic whenever she undergoes dialysis.
“The dialysis is very stressful on me. My vision is going. My hair is falling out. I’ve got skin cancer,” said Garinger, 68. “They said it’s from the dialysis not filtering out all the bad stuff.
“My biggest fear is I’ll have a heart attack during dialysis. I’m just going downhill right now.”
In 2022, Garinger was eagerly waiting for a kidney transplant at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, having found a good organ match in her daughter, the doctors told her.
But, “I needed [the transplant] like two years ago,” Garinger said.
Early last May, Garinger received an unexpected letter from the hospital saying she was no longer on the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) waitlist for a kidney transplant.
“The reason for this status change is you have not had your COVID vaccines,” read the May 6, 2022, letter Garinger shared with The Epoch Times.
“Once this situation is remedied, you will be evaluated for re-activation on the transplant waitlist.”
Garinger did not appeal the hospital’s decision. She knew “in her gut” her unvaccinated status would always be a problem.
Still, she put her faith in Sharp Memorial, only to be put through tests, medical procedures, and consultations at a substantial cost to Medicare.
“The whole time, they knew I wasn’t vaccinated and that [my daughter] wasn’t vaccinated. They would always ask me, ‘Why don’t you want to get a vaccine?’”
“I was pretty adamant,” said Garinger. “I didn’t want to take anything that was still experimental.”
She remembered her good friend who died two weeks after receiving a COVID shot. “She lived right over here, on the other side [of the street],” Garinger said.
Garinger said she was fortunate to find another hospital nearby that would operate without her taking the vaccine.
Starting All Over
The challenge now is the time it will take to complete all the required paperwork and preliminary procedures, the time it will take to get on a waitlist for a kidney donor, and the time it will take to find a donor.
She fears her time will run out before then.
One sympathetic doctor said, ‘Linda, you could drop over dead. Your heart could stop.’ So, I have to watch what I eat, and on the days I don’t do dialysis, I take this powder that tastes like gritty sand” to remove the excess potassium from her body.
Garinger finds herself among many people who need an organ transplant but are up against a medical system still adhering to vaccine protocols in many facilities.
In a 2021 Healio transplantation survey, 60 percent of the 141 transplant centers that responded did not require a COVID-19 injection before surgery. The survey sample represented just over 56 percent of the transplant centers in the United States.
Jeffrey Childers, a commercial attorney based in Gainesville, Florida, served clients facing COVID-19 mandates at hospitals and medical clinics during the pandemic.
He said Garinger’s case reflects the “COVID mania” that permeated the medical establishment beginning in 2020.
“This was an ugly manifestation of the COVID management regime that popped up,” Childers said. “All the cases get a lot of attention because people are horrified. But the transplant people will say they have limited resources, only get so many organs each year, and we have to give them to people with the best survival chances. They’ll hide behind that forever.”
Life-and-Death Decisions
Childers said health care facilities still have tremendous discretionary power to make critical decisions concerning COVID-19 vaccines.
“To see these kinds of life-and-death bureaucratic powers wielded by people who are not motivated by the science but—something else—is horrifying,” Childers said.
“I’ve run into it a handful of times in Florida. The law that applies is state dependent. The folks who manage those donor lists and the assignments have a lot of discretion.
“It’s even more appalling it’s happening now so late in the pandemic when the mandates are gone. You can’t find a single person who says they regret not taking the vaccine. But you can find tons going the other way.”
Childers said pro-vaccine advocates argue that an unvaccinated recipient is much more likely to die from COVID-19 following transplant surgery than a vaccinated patient.
“I don’t know the official line anymore,” he told The Epoch Times. “[The vaccine] doesn’t stop you from dying. It doesn’t stop you from getting sick.”
One study in the November 2022 MDPI, a Switzerland-based publisher of open-access scientific journals, claimed that over 60 days, the death rate among unvaccinated kidney transplant patients was 11.2 percent at the time of COVID-19 infection.
The study found the death rate among the vaccinated was 2.2 percent. More than two-thirds of the 144 patients in the study received a kidney transplant.
By contrast, a study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine in September 2022 found that some cornea transplant patients rejected the grafts after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.
In some cases, the rejection took place 20 years after the procedure.
Childers believes the science generally does not support the notion that unvaccinated transplant recipients are at an increased risk of dying from COVID-19.
“The argument is always don’t give an organ to a person who is living some kind of lifestyle that is risky or increases the risk of dying from something else,” Childers told The Epoch Times.
“That’s the logic they’re applying to this. They’re essentially saying by not taking the vaccine, [transplant patients] are at higher risk of dying from COVID. So they don’t want to give an organ to somebody at high risk voluntarily.”
Ohio attorney Warner Mendenhall, representing clients in vaccine mandate cases, said he knows at least 60 organ transplant denial suits working through the medical freedom group Liberty Counsel.
Each case involves a client refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine required for transplant surgery.
“We’re seeing [transplant denials] at many hospitals across the country,” Mendenhall said.
And while the medical establishment remains split on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 injections, some “medical people are concerned about clotting and other issues that occur with the vaccinated.”
“Especially if you’ve got liver and kidney problems and need that type of transfer, you don’t want to be vaccinated before the transplant. That’s my understanding,” Mendenhall said.
A ‘Fiduciary Responsibility’ to Patients
Often, the unvaccinated transplant patient has maintained a longstanding medical relationship with the hospital or clinic without issue before the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts.
For this reason, Mendenhall believes there is a “fiduciary relationship that the hospitals engage in with a transplant patient.” To break that obligation would be “a real breach of that fiduciary responsibility to them.”
According to the Chronic Disease Research Group, an estimated 37 million people in the United States have kidney disease in varying stages.
About 1 million Americans are in the end stages of the disease. At the same time, 550,000 undergo kidney dialysis to remove excess toxins from the blood because their kidneys cannot perform this function.
The average wait time for a kidney transplant in the United States is three to five years at most health facilities, but it’s longer in some parts of the country, according to kidney.org.
“It is best to explore transplant before you need to start dialysis. This way, you might be able to get a transplant ‘preemptively,’ before you need dialysis,” the organization’s website states.
“It takes time to find the right transplant center for you, to complete the transplant evaluation, to get on the transplant waitlist for a deceased donor, or to find a living kidney donor if you can.”
Garinger said she is in terminal Stage 5 of her kidney disease and needs dialysis almost every other day to stay alive.
“I’m pissed off,” said Garinger, who gets short of breath just walking to the kitchen.
“I can’t walk to Costco or a grocery store now. My muscles—I get out of wind so easily. I can’t walk down to my chickens anymore.”
Her daughter Emily Lewis, 35, is a recent medical assistant program graduate and is now her mother’s live-in caretaker as she waits for a kidney transplant.
“I put my life on hold because [of my mother],” Lewis said, although she has no regrets.
“Everyone I know who’s COVID vaccinated has had it four or five times. I’ve had it zero,” Lewis told The Epoch Times.
Denied access to the kidney wait list at Sharp Memorial, Garinger found that the University of California San Diego Medical Center was willing to perform the kidney transplant surgery.
But the longer it takes to find a kidney donor, the more likely it is that she won’t make it back to a more normal life.
She characterized her relationship with her doctors at Sharp Memorial as adversarial since she opposed taking the COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances.
She remembered one doctor in Ramona who kept “pressuring me” about the vaccine.
He said, “What will you do if you get COVID? What if you catch COVID and you have to go to the hospital?’
“Well,” she told him. “I have this protocol on my fridge—vitamins C and D. I have ivermectin. Number one: I won’t go to the hospital. It’s a death sentence there.”
“I guess you know more than me,’” the doctor said as he stood up and left the room.
“I didn’t know I had an adversary” or that “I was an evil person. I just had a gut feeling they would deny me [a kidney] because they kept pressuring me about the shot.”
“They did the same thing with me,” Emily said.
‘Why Aren’t You Vaccinated?’
At one point, Garinger demanded data showing the vaccine’s side effects.
“There was none,” she said. “It came down to the last final interview with the surgeon. All he could ask me was, ‘Why aren’t you vaccinated? Why don’t you want to get vaccinated?’”
“I don’t have COVID,” Garinger said. “[Emily] doesn’t have COVID. Another thing they told me was we were a [donor] match. And then I got to UCSD, and the bloodwork showed she was not a match.”
Sharp Memorial did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times. UCSD Medical Center did not return an email seeking comment.
New Orleans attorney David Dalia said Garinger’s case seems to be medical “discrimination.”
“They are discriminating against her based on her vaccination status,” he said.
During the pandemic, Dalia worked on vaccine mandate cases with Frontline doctors, filing amicus briefs on behalf of 1.5 million federal employees who refused to take a COVID-19 vaccine by order of President Joe Biden.
“The truth is [Garinger] has a lot better chance of living than a vaccinated person. We can back that up. They’re viewing it as sort of a disability.
“Well, that’s a violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act. And federal law specifically says all experimental use authorization drugs are strictly voluntary and subject to informed consent.”
Dalia said informed consent is “never coerced.”
As Garinger works through the intake process at UCSD Medical Center, she has good, bad, and “hell” days.
“I sit in a chair all day,” said Garinger, who ran a successful foreclosure business before she retired due to her illness. “[Emily] helps me do cooking. She does all the chopping and stuff. I have a chair in the kitchen. I walk to the kitchen and start cooking. I don’t do much. My gardening is on hold—everything is on hold. My muscles are gone. I use electric carts to go to Costco. I can’t do anything. I’m out of breath. It sucks.”
“Every part of my body is deteriorating. So, I’m on hold until I get a kidney.”
Just as painful are the times people call her “evil ” because she refuses to take an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19.
“You’re going to give [COVID] to everybody,” they tell her. “You’re evil for not getting vaccinated.”
“That’s how I felt,” Garinger told The Epoch Times.
She said another fear is receiving a kidney from a vaccinated donor, with unknown health effects, since there is no way to determine which donor is vaccinated and which one is not.
Feeling her time is growing short, Garinger said she is still determined to keep fighting in the time she has left.
“I’ve got to get this done. Every day there’s something else going wrong with me because my kidneys are gone,” Garinger said.
END
Another story:
“I Couldn’t Remain Silent”: Physician Assistant Fired For Reporting COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events To VAERS
Today, the New York-based Conrad tells her story at medical freedom conferences throughout the country, the most recent being one in Mississippi where physicians, scientists, and the vaccine injured warned state lawmakers to pull the COVID-19 vaccines from the market.
Conrad told The Epoch Times she began to see early danger signals in 2021 upon the vaccine rollout, and with that, resistance among her colleagues to report on them.
“After the vaccines came out, there was this uptick in unusual symptoms, some of which I had never seen in my 20-year career,” Conrad said. “In every case, it was in somebody who had received the COVID-19 vaccine.”
Conrad said she had never admitted an adult patient with RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) until the COVID-19 vaccines.
“And every patient who came in with RSV was vaccinated for COVID,” Conrad said. “It wasn’t normal.”
Then, there were the adolescents with no previous medical conditions who had gotten the COVID-19 vaccine a week prior and, suddenly, they were struck with pneumonia and not able to function, she said.
“They weren’t able to walk or eat, and they were completely and totally fatigued,” Conrad said.
This was in 2021 before myocarditis was being discussed, so many of those early cases that were probably myocarditis were diagnosed as pneumonia, she said.
“A lot of these myocarditis cases came in with fevers because of this massive inflammatory response that was taking place in the body, so they would be labeled as septic, treated as if we were treating pneumonia or fevers of unknown origin,” Conrad said. “We’d treat them with antibiotics and all sorts of other things, not realizing that they were having heart failure.”
Conrad began reporting to VAERS, which she said was an overwhelming task not made easy by its multiple user-interface complications.
“My entire life had been taken over by doing these VAERS reports by myself,” she said.
In meetings with leadership, she would propose implementing a reporting system and hiring someone to manage the reports, she said.
‘A Hostile Environment’
“They kept telling me we’re looking into it and we’ll get back to you,” Conrad said. “Around April 2021, leadership came back and said no one else is reporting injuries—implying that I was crazy and there was nothing really going on with the vaccines.”
Leadership then audited her reports, she said and concluded that she was overreporting.
“I was then told that by doing VAERS reports and even discussing VAERS that it was an admission that the vaccines were unsafe, so it’s contributing to vaccine hesitancy,” Conrad said.
From there, it became a “very hostile environment” that compelled her to seek legal counsel, who wrote letters to the Department of Health, the CDC, and the FDA.
“No one cared,” Conrad said. “Finally, I had had it. It was so unethical; I couldn’t take it anymore. These VAERS reports are critical to assuring these vaccines are safe for us all. I could no longer be a part of a system that is lying to the American people.”
Conrad decided to become a whistleblower, telling her story on Del Bigtree’s The Highwire, knowing, she said, that it would cost her job.
“I couldn’t remain silent, even if it meant losing my career and everything I worked for,” she said. “I was fired a few weeks later and walked out like a criminal in front of all my peers.”
According to Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), under the National Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, it’s a federal requirement for health care workers to report vaccine-related adverse events to VAERS.
Fisher, whose son was harmed by the DTP vaccine in 1980, worked with other parents of vaccine-injured children in establishing the NVIC in 1982.
“The 1986 Act was driven by parents of DPT vaccine injured children asking the government to pass legislation to secure vaccine safety informing, recording, reporting, and research provisions in the vaccination system to make it safer, and to create a federal compensation system alternative to a lawsuit against manufacturers of vaccines that injure or kill children,” Fisher told The Epoch Times.
In addition to NVIC arguing that physicians and vaccine manufacturers should be giving informed consent and report injuries, the organization maintained they should also continue to be held accountable in a civil court to serve as an incentive for physicians to administer vaccines responsibly, for manufacturers to produce safer vaccines, and for adequate federal compensation to vaccine-injured children.
Project Veritas on Twitter: “BREAKING: Confidential @Pfizer Documents Reveal Pharmaceutical Giant Had ‘Evidence’ Suggesting ‘Increased Risk of Myocarditis’ Following COVID-19 Vaccinations in Early 2022 ““There is evidence that suggests patients who receive a COVID-19 vaccine are at an increased risk of… https://t.co/ZtJMocJiJP” / Twitter
BREAKING: Confidential @Pfizer Documents Reveal Pharmaceutical Giant Had ‘Evidence’ Suggesting ‘Increased Risk of Myocarditis’ Following COVID-19 Vaccinations in Early 2022
"“There is evidence that suggests patients who receive a COVID-19 vaccine are at an increased risk of… pic.twitter.com/ZtJMocJiJP
doctor on using this cheap, available, safe formulation from The Wellness Company (Foster Coulson); be sure to factor in allergies, if you are a bleeder (this is a blood thinner) or have intolerances
I have written about the Spike Recovery formulation in my substack and provide the link above for further consideration should you wish to examine it further for use (especially for long-COVID symptoms that are likely due to the impact of the constant spike protein production and its inflammatory effects on the vasculature as an example; it should be noted that Nattokinase has emerged as having a potential beneficial effect in the Prevention and Treatment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease; additional research is urgently needed (comparative effectiveness research, large sample size, large event number, robust trustworthy methodologies) and the science is maturing and developing and refining but existing reports are quite favorable). The same can be said about the Spike Recovery formulation out of The Wellness Company.
Venous Thrombosis (CVT) of the Brain after SARS-CoV-2 Infection and mRNA Vaccination; the tradeoff is dangerous, do not risk the vaccine effects in hopes its lower than infection
This study is instructive and Dr. McCullough makes a valid point and I wanted to share it which is that the effects of the vaccine (spike protein) are far more dangerous than that of COVID and particularly in healthy low risk persons.
‘Proponents of COVID-19 mass vaccination acknowledge that similar disastrous outcomes occur with both SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 vaccines (myocarditis, blood clots, neurological problems). They position a tradeoff and suggest you should risk it with the vaccine in hopes its lower than that of the infection. Since 94% of Americans have had the COVID-19, its water under the bridge for the infection. Early therapy reduces the invasive systemic manifestations of the illness and markedly reduces hospitalization and death including from complications. With vaccination its a different story, the full force of engineered Spike protein is felt in the body with each shot and per case, the severity of the side effect is far worse than that with COVID-19.
Tu, et al illustrated this principle while analyzing central venous thrombosis which is a blood clot in the major vein of the brain which is a medical emergency requiring, hospitalization, intravenous or subcutaneous blood thinners, serial imaging, observation and in some cases surgery. Tu attempted to divide cases by large denominators to minimize risk; that is invalid in safety research since not all cases can be found particularly fatal ones without an autopsy. The important findings from Tu are in the tables. Central venous thrombosis after vaccination was a catastrophe with more cases, greater need for therapy, more brain surgery, and higher degrees of neurologic impairment at discharge for those who took the mRNA vaccine.’
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH Proponents of COVID-19 mass vaccination acknowledge that similar disastrous outcomes occur with both SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 vaccines (myocarditis, blood clots, neurological problems). They position a tradeoff and suggest you should risk it with the vaccine in hopes its lower than that of the infection. Si…
A New World Order is Emerging as the Davos Banking System CollapsesMarch 20, 2023 7:48 pmWith the collapse yesterday of the world’s first SIFI (systemically important financial institution – “too big to fail”) bank, Credit Suisse, the reality that the financial system of western culture is now on the brink of collapse is starting to sink in with Americans. While still not headline news in the American corporate media, financial headlines were notably pessimistic today, even with the stock market posting gains. The more dire outlooks are still being published as “opinion pieces,” but it appears that more and more Americans are starting to face the reality that life as we have known it, is about to radically change. Here is an article that was featured on the Home Page of Market Watch for most of the day today, while the markets were open. And while it is listed as an “opinion” piece, it sure reads like a news article to me. “Opinion: The end of the ‘everything bubble’ has finally hit the banking system. Credit Suisse and SVB might be just the first of many shocks.” The independent financial alternative media, without needing investors and editors’ approval to print anything, was much more apocalyptic. Here are a few headlines from ZeroHedge News today: “The Banking System is On The Brink of Collapse,” “This Financial Crisis Will Be Like None Other In History,” “Nowhere To Hide In CMBS: CRE Nuke Goes Off With Small Banks Accounting For 70% Of Commercial Real Estate Loans.” A New World Order is emerging, and it is NOT led by the Davos Crowd and the World Economic Forum.Read More…
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
“If We Again See Deflation Ahead, It Requires Fiscal AND Monetary Fusion”
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 09:23 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Shulman, Nosov, Tyulakov, Watford, Melnikov, Avayev, Protosenya, Krukovsky, Subbotin, Voronov, Rapoport, Maganov, Pechorin, Sungorkin, Gerashchenko, Pchelnikov, Petrunin, Mushegian, Taran, Makei, Kochenov, Zelenov, Bidenov, Buzakov, Antov, Maslov, Abdulaev, Pawochka, Makarov, Yankina, Rovneiko. The list of prominent Russians who mysteriously died since the start of 2022 has grown in exponential fashion. Does a market analyst think that’s randomness, prominent Russians being suddenly unlucky, or the Russian political-economy working? I raise the point because our metastasizing metacrisis should force us to look for patterns in our own political-economy even if it means reaching some uncomfortable conclusions.
After all, we just passed the 20th anniversary of the 2003 Iraq War, started over either a terrible error or a lie, which destabilised the Middle East and undermined US moral authority and military strength. Everyone I knew in 2003 knew there were no Iraqi WMDs but that the war was going to happen anyway. The logistics had been set in motion. All the nodders were nodding. I also distinctly recall being on the trading floor when the statue of Saddam came down: everyone turned off the TVs and went back to their desks as if it was all over, rather than the broader problems starting.
The same logistics were clear ahead of the Ukraine invasion in 2022 if one bothered to look. The problems are also still just starting there, even if markets are again trying to ignore them.
Markets can do so only because the US political-economy since Carter is that the labor share of GDP mysteriously dies while capital’s rises; and since Greenspan, that a Fed Put is always there to save investors. To underline how deeply this mentality is built in, even in a week where Credit Suisse became UBS, equity holders were smashed, and AT1 holders crushed, Bloomberg reports the ‘Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Managers is Missing Next Rally’:
“Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures, and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of money managers – missing out on the next big rally…. They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets.”
Of course, there is still room for a surprise from the Fed tomorrow, perhaps not in terms of an expected 25bps, but in the dot plot of what they think comes next. In a technical paper on the US yield curve, Philip Marey shows Dynamic Nelson Siegel model scenarios for the US 10-year yield for end-2023: 5.31% if inflation is sticky; 4.28% in the Fed’s December dot plot; and 1.53% in case of stagnation. That’s quite a range: then again, the US 2-year yield just traded an 40bps intra-dayrange yesterday. That would recently have been a safe projection for an annual trading range!
That predicted ‘DM = EM’ shift isn’t a surprise when you see the other names falling out of windows and off yachts or pedestals: Barnett; Bates Clark; Friedman; Jevons; Krugman; Samuelson; Walras; Wicksell, etc. – i.e., the collective reputation of neoclassical and neoliberal economics. Those shilling Goldilocks fantasies ten weeks ago sold linear, first-order, not non-linear, second, third, nth order thinking – like the above economists. If the number of people, or reputations, falling through windows goes 2, 4, 8, 16, I adjust my view of political-economy rather than of glazing.
In the real world, writing in the Financial Times, Gillian Tett notes the treatment of AT1 bonds in the Credit Suisse affair could contribute to an “insidious sense of investor doubt” about the neutrality of laws underpinning capital markets, with suspicions the Swiss authorities ensured the powerful Saudis got their money first. Likewise, SVB was not just a start-up bank but a national security issue, says the Pentagon, and Signature Bank was about dollar-rival crypto. The expansion of Fed swaplines excluded EM, again. Yes, the average Fed governor, like the average market analyst, may not even be able to spell geopolitics, let alone say it, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a parallel reality to purely market perceptions of events.
Which brings us back to the view that it’s if not when we get a Fed Put. Let’s try to frame this in broader political-economy:
Covid-era inflation was never going to be “transitory”. That’s what happens if you finally use fiscal *and* monetary policy, having failed with only monetary, supply chains buckle, and entrenched oligopolies raise prices because they can. Oh, and war.
Nominal wage inflation was always likely to rise. Covid saw excess deaths, long illnesses, early retirement, lifestyle changes, and labor hoarding in ageing societies where fewer younger workers must produce the same volume of goods and services, while immigration came to a halt. Workers needed pay rises to try to catch up to inflation: and firms can afford to let them to some degree because profits are so high. Governments have to for political reasons.
Interest rates were always likely have to be ‘higher for longer’. What else were central banks supposed to do – argue for higher taxation and anti-trust action?
Raising rates in a financialised economy breaks things. Yet some things getting broken aren’t useful to the Pentagon, and others are more useful broken.
Risks of a credit crunch and deep recession are higher without more state action – which is why after suspending mark to market, the US is now studying extending deposit insurance universally. The state might need to step in even more. If so, will it be for free-wheeling Greenspan get-rich-quick schemes,… or China-style, centralization, re-regulation, and making banking as exciting as the civil (or military) service?
Sustaining state spending will be hard, but voters are in no mood for cuts. More so as defence budgets must surge now “production is deterrence”. On which, US ‘60 Minutes’ just nodded about how many more warships China builds each year than the US. The CSIS says in ‘Reviving the Arsenal of Democracy: Steps for Surging Defense Industrial Capacity’:
“If there is a future conflict, the nation will have to go to war with the industrial base that it has at the time. The WWII model of engaging the industrial base in five years may not be sufficient for a conflict with a highly capable adversary with a strong industrial base, a strategy of onshoring all the components of production, and near-monopoly power over critical subcomponents, including critical materials used in defense production across the world.”
Cutting rates back to zero is not a viable strategy because of high inflation; low unemployment; the need for more production, not asset bubbles; the politics of selling asset-rich-income poor to an already furious public; and the fact that IT DOESN’T WORK. If we see deflation ahead, then we *know* it requires fiscal and monetary fusion – and then we know we get inflation again.
If the US does have to cut hugely again, every other DM is in deeper trouble. Worse, large EM are saying “No more 2003 or 2008!” as gold and crypto rise. I said Bretton Woods 3 Won’t Work, but also that if you want EM to set up CBDCs and use barter or gold for clearing, then let the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOC, RBA, etc., follow the BOJ. Look on as geopolitical sides are taken: as Xi visits Putin ahead of a visit to Beijing from Lula, Kishida is visiting India and making up with South Korea, floated as another Quad member.
Ideology is back as a justification for state action, as flagged in 2020. As we rush to restructure market architecture in a zero-sum, high-inflation, highly-geopolitical atmosphere, more technocratic or FTX-on-the-Forbes-front-cover Bloombergery is unlikely. History and logic says we will instead see new (old!) political-economy fusions of monetary, fiscal, industrial, and regulatory policy: like rate hikes and QE (or, some say, higher inflation targets); suspending or intervening in markets; and/or financial repression.
The logistics of this are starting to emerge if you can join the dots. The nodding heads are starting to nod. Clearly, however, most in markets don’t grasp how their political-economy is changing and don’t see the exponentially rising number of bodies and reputations falling out of windows.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0779 UP .0061
USA/ YEN 132.01 UP 0.807/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2253 DOWN 0.0-20
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3655 DOWN .0017 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 20.74 PTS OR 0.64%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 238.05 PTS OR 1.36%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .81% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 517.88 PTS OR 2.65%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.74 PTS OR 0.64%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.81%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1968.00
silver:$22.48
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102,69 DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8814)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8812
TURKISH LIRA: 19.03 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.218…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.568% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.725 UP 6 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.139 UP 15 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 102.81 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 127/75 PTS OR 1.73%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 264.40POINTS OR 1.77%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 100.79 PTS OR 1.44%
Spain IBEX UP 224.40 POINTS OR 2.54%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 669.93 PTS OR 2.59%
WTI Oil price 68.77 12: EST
Brent Oil: 74.89 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 76.81/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 39/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2675
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.394 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0765 UP 0.0047 OR 47 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2213 DOWN .0059 or 59 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.387% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.51 UP 1.11////YEN DOWN 111 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3714 UP .0041 (CDN dollar, DOWN 41 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.50
Brent OIL: 75.26
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS pts to 3.592%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 3.743%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 22 PTS AT 4.1791%
USA dollar index: 102.88 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.03
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.66 UP 0 AND 51/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 316.02 PTS OR 0.98%
NASDAQ 100 UP 178,83 PTS OR 1.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.55 DOWN 2.60 PTS (10.77)%
GLD: $180.37 DOWN 3.47 OR 1.89%
SLV/ $20.54 DOWN 0.15 OR 0.72%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Banks & Black Gold Bounce As Bonds & Bullion Breakdown Ahead Of Fed
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 04:00 PM
An ugly Philly Fed Services print was offset by soaring existing home sales data (thanks to a brief drop in mortgage rates), but risk appetites continued to grow today with stocks up and bonds down (in price) ahead of tomorrow’s big day for Powell. Of course Yellen said “s’all good” about the US financial system, you’ll forgive us for not taking her word for it…
First Republic screamed over 50% higher at today’s peak (which had some technical relevance)
Regional Banks jumped 5% today, up to the upper band of the recent range…
Most notably, rate-hike odds soared today with a 25bps hike tomorrow now priced at an 80%-plus chance…
Source: Bloomberg
And traders shifted significantly hawkishly across the rest of the STIRs market. The terminal rate rose to +36bps from here, but perhaps of most note is that the market has shifted December from -110bps (below today’s rate) to -20bps in the last 24 hours (erasing 3 25bps cuts by year-end)…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields soared further today, extending yesterday’s bounce (the short-end underperformed dramatically with 2Y +20bps, 30Y +6bps on the day). 2Y Yields are now up 34bps from Friday (30Y +10bps), but it’s the scale of the swings that continues to confound (2Y up 55bps from yesterday’s lows). Interesting that the bulk of the selling was once again during the European session…
Source: Bloomberg
As Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes, yields on 2-year Notes are up 24bp to 4.15% – seemingly reflecting the relaxing financial tensions. But the rise in yields also may indicate that markets expect that the potential disruption to the economy that we have seen over the past 2 weeks is not likely to derail growth enough to suppress inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
German 2Y yields surged 26bps – the biggest jump since 2008 – and up 52bps from yesterday’s lows…
Source: Bloomberg
On the credit side, Deutsche Bank and UBS both saw spreads compress… but they remain elevated…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Major equity markets rallied today, led by Small Caps and Nasdaq (Dow lagged but was still green). We note a lot of the buying came during the European session and stalled shortly after the US cash open…
It had the feel of a classic squeeze day with ‘most shorted’ stocks up almost 5% on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 perfectly rallied up to its 50DMA today..
The afternoon ramp to the 50DMA was helped along by positive delta flow from 0DTE traders…
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal today, bacxk below 22…
The dollar slid lower for the 4th day in a row (8th down day in last 9 days) to one-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed to scramble back above $28,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum jumped back above $1800 today…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices bounced to the upper-end of their recent range with WTI testing up towards $70 ahead of tonight’s API print…
Gold slipped further today, back below $1950…
Finally, while Bond rate vol has narrowed modestly, we remain in a period of extreme uncertainty with regard to Treasuries…
Source: Bloomberg
Will Powell’s utterances tomorrow take this down further, or stoke the fears more?
i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA
As mortgage rates tumble, existing home sales soar the most since the lockdown
(zerohedge)
Existing Home Sales Soar Most Since COVID Lockdowns As Mortgage-Rates Tumbled
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 10:11 AM
After 12 straight monthly declines, analysts expected existing home sales to rebound 5.0% MoM in February (after pending- and new-home sales turned up unexpectedly in January – as mortgage rates dipped). Analysts were right in direction but dramatically under-estimated the rebound which saw existing home sales soar 14.5% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest jump since the post-COVID-lockdown reopening but sales are still down 22.6% YoY.
The median selling price of a previously owned home fell 0.2% from a year earlier to $363,000 in February, according to NAR. The decline was the first in 11 years, ending a record string of annual gains. The median selling price in the West dropped 5.6% from a year ago and may have helped bolster demand.
Sales strengthened in all regions, led by double-digit increases in the West, South and Midwest.
First-time buyers made up a historically low 27% of purchases in February, down 4 percentage points from a month earlier
The pace of sales (SAAR) was the highest in 5 months.
This is based on closings – so were likely signed in January, when mortgage rates had tumbled.
“Conscious of changing mortgage rates, home buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas where home prices are decreasing and the local economies are adding jobs.”
Mortgage rates have since soared back above 7.00%…
…oh and the banking system collapse means lending standards will have tightened dramatically since.
So, don’t expect this sales surge to continue.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
Not good: USA cattle inventory falls to lowest level in a decade
(zerohedge)
US Cattle Inventory Forecast Falls To Lowest Level In Nearly A Decade: USDA
As of Jan. 1, there were 89.3 million head of cattle, down 3 percent from a year ago; and 29 million beef cows bred for slaughter in the United States, down 4 percent from last year.
“Total red meat and poultry production in 2023 is forecast to decrease for the first time in nearly a decade,” the USDA said in its bi-annual livestock, dairy, and poultry outlook released in early March.
“This is due to the 6-percent decline in beef production that more than offsets forecast increases in pork (2 percent), broiler meat (1 percent), and turkey (7 percent) production.”
The report said dwindling cattle production would likely cause a “significant year-over-year decrease in beef production, the first decline since 2015.”
However, the USDA expects pork supplies to increase in 2023 after two consecutive years of decline due to higher carcass weights.
“Broiler meat production is forecast to continue its longstanding upward trends into 2023, increasing marginally over last year’s record production,” the report added.
“Turkey production is expected to increase throughout 2023, under the assumption that the sector recovers from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks.”
Of the 89.3 million head inventory, about 38 million cows and heifers produced calves in 2022, the report said.
According to the USDA, drought conditions contributed to the yearly decline in the beef cow inventory last year.
“While 2019 was the second-wettest year on record for the continental United States, after 1973, dry conditions began to persist in 2020, mostly in the West and Plains farm production regions,” the report noted.
“Overall, drought has contributed to reduced pasture and range conditions, and increased beef and cow slaughter. Any changes to the current drought conditions will likely impact inventory numbers in the coming year.”
The U.S. Drought Monitor reported that 41.5 percent of the continental United States experienced moderate to exceptional drought during the third week of February.
However, the agency’s three-month outlook in February said those conditions could persist in more than 34 percent of the lower 48 states, “with drought development likely in 8.9 percent of the country.
Other report findings showed that the number of milk cows had increased to 9.4 million in 2022, while the calf crop had decreased by 2 percent from 2021 to about 35 million head.
A higher forecast for beef cattle slaughter “more than offsets a decline in expected dressed weights, resulting in projected beef production being raised 165 million pounds to 26.7 billion pounds,” the USDA reported. “Fed cattle prices in 2023 are raised to $162 per hundredweight on firm demand. The trade forecast for 2023 is unchanged.”
end
This tells you the story on the plight of the uSA economy: auto loan denials hit a six year high
(zerohedge)
Auto-Loan Denials Hit Six-Year High As Distress Cycle Shifts Into Gear
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 06:55 AM
The Federal Reserve has managed to aggressively raise interest rates and tighten financial conditions so much that it sparked a regional banking crisis and unleashed contagion in European banks. Even before the banking meltdown, financial conditions were tight, pressuring subprime consumers the most.
A new Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows the auto loan denial rate rose to 9.1%, a six-year high in February — and up from 5.8% in October.
“The findings show how higher interest rates are squeezing consumer credit in some key areas, in line with the Fed’s goal of cooling inflation. But in recent days, the collapse of three US banks has spurred fears of a sharper credit crunch that risks tipping the economy into a recession,” Bloomberg said.
And the number of folks with $1,000 monthly car payments has soared in recent years, with the average loan amount financed hitting a record high of $40,000 — a disaster in the making…
The good news for the auto market is that tighter financial conditions have reduced the number of people buying new cars. However, that could only shift more consumers to the used car market in search of deals. As we noted in recent weeks, used car prices are reaccelerating.
END
Banks are yanking junk bond yields due to no interest.
(zerohedge)
“Like A Scooby-Doo Ghost Town”: Banks Yank Junk Loan Deals As Demand Craters
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 01:20 PM
The equity market may be enjoying an deeply oversold bounce (at least until the next bank crisis crushes sentiment again), but the same can not be said for the primary debt market – especially for junk-rated paper – where deals are getting yanked left and right as demand hits a brick wall.
As Bloomberg notes, as the global bank crisis spreads, bank underwriters (those that are still standing that is) across the US and Europe are pulling sales and pausing future ones amid tepid demand. A quick look at the carnage shows that Barclays recently shelved a pair of loans for Ineos Enterprises and Russell Investments, while JPMorgan yanked a deal for Agiliti Health. Many other deals are about to be quietly pulled.
“The primary loan market feels like a Scooby Doo ghost town — recently deserted and a bit haunted,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein.
It’s easy to understand why the primary market is entering a deep freeze: traditionally fickle and swinging along market sentiment, the sudden takeover of Credit Suisse and the failure of a trio of US regional lenders have chilled all interest in semi-distressed paper and sparked renewed fears among investors who were already forecasting a recession. The timing, Bloomberg notes, could hardly be worse for Wall Street’s lucrative leveraged lending desks, which are still seeking to offload billions of dollars of risky corporate debt stuck on their books to institutional investors following a flurry of mistimed financings last year.
In a painful twist for underwriting teams, bankers had found some “solace” in recent weeks with credit markets showing signs of recovery, with a bevy of leveraged buyouts announced in recent weeks, including Qualtrics, Univar Solutions and Cvent Holding. Yet hopes are quickly evaporating as volatility rips across markets, undermining efforts by banks to ramp up lending and grab back market share from private credit firms.
European leveraged loan prices slid after investors got spooked about possible contagion risks from the forced marriage of UBS and Credit Suisse brokered by the Swiss government. That contributed to Barclays withdrawing a €820 million ($883 million) loan for Ineos Enterprises that arranger banks had been shopping to investors. The loan, which was intended to be denominated in both dollars and euros, was one of the rare deals that was to fund an acquisition rather than a refinancing this year. And there’s uncertainty about upcoming deals.
Fears over the fallout from the SVB failure were also behind a duo of pulled loans: the $1.08 billion deal that medical equipment company Agiliti Health pulled and the proposed $1.16 billion amend-and-extend that Russell Investments withdrew.
“Issuance will remain light until concerns over financial sector deposit flows and liquidity ease,” said UBS credit strategist Matthew Mish. “This should happen by mid-April at the latest as banks start reporting first-quarter earnings.”
The latest loan market freeze comes at a time when leveraged loan issuance is already at its lowest volume since 2015 in the US and since 2016 in Europe, courtesy of the recent surge in interest rates which has hit investor appetite. Junk bond issuance has also been low, as it was last year. And with inflation stubbornly high and central banks committed to fighting surging prices, there’s likely to be more volatility ahead, Bloomberg notes. That adds to the challenge of underwriting new buyout debt, putting balance sheets at risk when investors are nervous about rising rates.
“I expect volatility this year,” said Lauren Basmadjian, co-head of liquid credit and head of US loans and structured credit at Carlyle Group. “The Fed has been moving rates at unprecedented speeds. They still have their inflation target. They finally broke something, right? There’s going to be other consequences.”
Meanwhile, even as trading prices on leveraged loans erased a good half of the gains they notched this year, they still remain elevated, largely thanks to the Fed’s rate hikes. An index that tracks the average price of European leveraged loans fell almost half a cent on the euro on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since September. Such moves raise borrowing costs and make new buyout financings a near non-starter at the moment.
“The concessions you might need to raise debt are probably fairly high now,” according to Young Choi, partner and global head of trading at King Street Capital Management.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
looks like they are getting ready to charge Trump”
The New York Police Department (NYPD) has mobilized 700 riot cops and deployed steel barricades around the Manhattan Criminal Court in anticipation of civil disorder, should the Manhattan District Attorney’s office order the arrest of former President Donald Trump, following a potential grand jury indictment for allegedly paying a former porn star for her silence ahead of his 2016 presidential campaign.
As the NY Times gleefully reports, “He would be fingerprinted. He would be photographed. He could even be handcuffed. And if Donald J. Trump is indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in the days ahead for his role in a hush money payment to a porn star, the former president of the United States of America will be read the standard Miranda warning: He will be told that he has the right to remain silent and the right to an attorney.”
“These are among the routine steps for felony arrests in New York. But the unprecedented arrest of a former commander in chief — one whose devoted supporters once staged a violent attack on the Capitol — will be anything but routine.”
According to the report, cited by Kyle Becker in Trending Politics, “more than a dozen senior Police Department officials and two of the mayor’s top public safety aides held a virtual meeting to discuss security, staffing and contingency plans in the event of any protests, one person with knowledge of the meeting said.”
The Times drew a parallel between New York City’s security preparations for the potential Trump indictment this week and the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021.
“That meeting followed a call from Mr. Trump himself, in a post on his site Truth Social on Saturday morning: ‘PROTEST,’ he exhorted his supporters. ‘TAKE OUR NATION BACK!’
“The former president’s rallying cry, with an indictment looming, conjured up memories of the Jan. 6, 2020, assault on the Capitol,” the Times added. -Trending Politics
As we noted on Monday, House GOP investigators are demanding that the Manhattan DA explain their alleged (leaked) decision to prosecute Trump.
“You are reportedly about to engage in an unprecedented abuse of prosecutorial authority: the indictment of a former President of the United States and current declared candidate for that office,” reads a Monday letter to Bragg from Reps. Jim Jordan (Judiciary Chairman), James Comer (Oversight Chairman) and Bryan Steil (House Admin Chairman).
“This indictment comes after years of your office searching for a basis – any basis – on which to bring charges, ultimately settling on a novel legal theory untested anywhere in the country and one that federal authorities declined to pursue.”
The letter goes on to shred the ‘untested legal theory’ underpinning Bragg’s expected indictment, and calls out former Trump Attorney Michael Cohen, Bragg’s star witness and a convicted perjurer, as having a “serious credibility problem.”
The letter demands all documents and communications related to the decision.
“This is the type of thing America hates, and it divides America and it is wrong,” McCarthy said this week while conferring with House Republicans in Orlando, Florida. McCarthy has accused Bragg of lowering penalties for criminals in New York while prosecuting his political opponents.
“It’s interesting to me he spent his whole time as a DA lowering felonies, not to prosecute,” said McCarthy. “I think Republicans and Democrats alike hate this type of justice.”
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report March 21, 2023 Issue 6972
Independent View of the News
European bank supervisors step in to stem rout in bonds European supervisors tried to stop a rout in the market for convertible bank bonds on Monday, saying owners of this type of debt would only suffer losses after shareholders have been wiped out – unlike what happened at Credit Suisse… The EU regulators – the European Central Bank, the European Banking Authority and the Single Resolution Board – said they would continue to impose losses on shareholders before bondholders… The comments helped the price of bank bonds cut losses and were echoed by the Bank of England shortly after. “Holders of such instruments should expect to be exposed to losses in resolution or insolvency in the order of their positions in this hierarchy,” the Bank of England said in its statement… Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds contained a clause allowing Swiss authorities to write them off if the bank became unviable, regardless of what happens to the shares… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-european-bank-supervisors-step-104730719.html
ESMs hit a peak of 3978.25, +31.25, at 20:37 ET. European CoCo bonds plunged. So, ESMs and stocks then tumbled 77 handles, hitting a bottom at 2:48 ET. The rally for and after the European open produced a 27-handle ESM rally that ended at 4:05 ET. ESMs and stocks then sank to new daily lows. A bottom developed at 5:19 ET.
ESMs and stocks then rallied persistently until they peaked at the 11:30 ET European close. While stocks soared, First Republic tumbled 26% to an all-time low of 17.12 at noon ET. After a 32-handle ESM retreat, ESMs and stocks commenced another rally at 12:12 ET. It ended at 13:08 ET. ESMs and stocks then went inert until the late upward manipulation appeared at 15:48 ET.
@WallStreetSilv: Wait till JP Morgan checks their silver and gold in storage.
@zerohedge: First JPM paid $175MM for that student loan “startup” with millions of fake customers, now we learn the bank bought $1.3MM in nickel which turned out to be “bags full of stones,” Does anyone at the largest US bank do any diligence?
@gaborgurbacs: The global derivatives market is a $2+ QUADRILLION (2,000+ TRILLION) ticking time-bomb. When banks fail, derivatives won’t just unwind in an orderly fashion. Few people understand this. These are some of the top U.S. banks ranked by derivatives exposure (double-digit TRILLIONs). (Goldman $53 trillion, JPM $50+T, Citi $47+T as of 12/31/22) https://t.co/cS23fazqZH
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks tumbled while bond soared on renewed concerns about US banks June gold rallied above $2000, again; Bonds declined sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who else is in trouble? How many more ‘problems’ are lurking? How will buying stocks because there is a global banking crisis work out?
After JPMorgan rescued Bear Steans on March 17, 2008, the S&P 500 Index rallied 14.6%, peaking on May 19. Bernanke cut the fed funds rate from 3% to 2.25% on March 18, 2008. Ben cut funds another 25bps by May 6, 2008. CPI was +4.0% y/y in March 2008. How’d that work out? PS – The Fed’s balance sheet was $889B on March 19, 2008; it hit $8.965T in 4/22. Where does the Fed balance sheet have to go to halt the global banking crisis? What would be the consequences?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3941.69 Previous session High/Low: 3956.62; 3916.89
@DailyCaller: DC RESIDENT: “What are we gonna do about those other states?” FAUCI: “They’re gonna keep the outbreak smoldering…They’re Republicans. They don’t like to be told what to do. We need to break that.” https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1637848285258866689
@GRDecter near the close: The FDIC just extended the deadline for bids on Silicon Valley Bank and opened the bidding to non-bank buyers. Maybe no one wants to buy SVB’s assets.
Today – A very important 2-day FOMC Meeting begins. The consensus Street view is that the Fed will pause or hike rates by 25bps. If stocks rally further into the FOMC Meeting, the odds of a Fed rate hike increase. If stocks soar into the FOMC Meeting, the Fed has a very difficult decision to make.
Traders are back in euphoric mode, basking in the glow of not only more Fed easy credit, but more juice from government agencies. Traders know that stocks tend to rally into FOMC Meetings – and they expect the Fed to pause rate hikes. So, the rally window is gapingly open until the FOMC Communique is released at 14:00 ET on Wednesday.
The Fed’s credibility problem is validated by the global banking duress. Despite ample and repeated warnings that the Fed would hike rates until inflation was tamed, few institutions believed the Fed. So, they failed to hedge their duration risk. Now, the Fed, US agencies, and other central banks are bailing out the banks that failed to heed the Fed’s warnings. There is no such thing as ‘Moral Hazard’ anymore.
Dem Sen Joe Manchin blasts Biden’s ‘absolutely infuriating’ ESG veto “This Administration continues to prioritize their radical policy agenda over the economic, energy and national security needs of our country, and it is absolutely infuriating,” Manchin said in a statement after Biden’s Monday veto… https://trib.al/QCasKAT
Republicans torch Biden veto of bipartisan ESG bill: ‘Good luck explaining this one’ ‘Biden is once again putting his leftist agenda over supporting bipartisan work for Americans in Congress,’ Rep. Austin Scott said…Biden’s veto puts the climate activists and special interest groups he is beholden to ahead of middle-class American investors.”… “Today President Biden used his first veto to reject bipartisan consensus in the House and Senate that Americans’ retirement savings should be invested to get the best return, not to support woke nonsense,” Braun said. “Good luck explaining this one,” he added… “During a time of record inflation, Biden wants to make matters worse by allowing climate activists to hijack investment returns,” Mullin said. “It’s a shame.”… https://t.co/8g5xagRyqb
CBS: North Korea on Monday described its latest ballistic missile launch as a simulated nuclear attack on South Korea. https://t.co/Pp5Mw4SRBD
@TuckerCarlson: If the Democratic Party is allowed to take out the presidential front runner — the main threat to their power — with a bogus criminal case, we’re done. That precedent will live forever. Voters will never determine the outcome of another election. https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1637978367231139841
@bennyjohnson: Tucker NUKES George W. Bush. “As long as were indicting former Presidents where are the charges against George W. Bush for invading Iraq under false pretenses and permanently normalizing trade relations with China and wrecking the US Economy? Don’t hold your breath…” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1637978533275508741
DeSantis: I’m Not Involved, but “Soros-Funded DA” Is “Weaponizing the Office” Against Trump “I’ve seen rumors swirl but I have not seen any facts yet about what is going to happen. I do know this: the Manhattan district attorney is a Soros-funded prosecutor. And so he, like the other Soros-funded prosecutors, weaponize their office to impose a political agenda on society at the expense of the rule of law and public safety. He has downgraded over 50% of the felonies to misdemeanors. He says he doesn’t want to even have jail time for the vast, vast majority of crimes. What we’ve seen in Manhattan is the crime rate going up and we’ve seen citizens becoming less safe. So talking about this situation with — I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I can’t speak to that. But what I can speak to is if you have a prosecutor who is ignoring crimes happening every single day in his jurisdiction and he chooses to go back many, many years ago to try to use something about porn star hush money payments, that is an example of pursuing a political agenda and weaponizing the office. And I think that is fundamentally wrong… I also think it is important to point out when you’re talking about these Soros-funded prosecutors, yes they may do a high-profile politicized prosecution, and that’s bad, but the real victims are ordinary New Yorkers… They get victimized every day because of the reckless political agenda that these Soros DAs bring to their job. They ignore crime and empower criminals and that hurts people… The Soros district attorneys are a menace to society. I’m just glad I’m the only governor in the country who has actually removed one from office during my tenure… we are not involved in this, we won’t be involved in this, I have no interest in getting involved in some type of manufactured circus by some Soros DA… He’s trying to virtue signal for his base. I’ve got real issues I have to deal with here in the state of Florida…I can’t spend my time worrying about things of that nature, so we’re not going to be involved in it in any way… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/03/20/desantis_im_not_involved_but_soros-funded_da_is_weaponizing_the_office_against_donald_trump.html
@Logan_Ratick: Alan Dershowitz @AlanDersh: “I think (George Soros) is a major threat to liberty…as a young man, he collaborated with Nazis and I think it’s perfectly fair to criticize him not for what he is, but for what he’s done. And what he’s done really does hurt the United States.” https://t.co/gx4VuPvVoD
Trumpinistas are livid that DeSantis, despite months of Trump bashing him, didn’t voice stronger support for Donald Chump.
@charliekirk11: Jim Jordan, James Comer, and Bryan Steil of the House Judiciary Committee are demanding communications, documentations, and testimony from Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg related to his reported upcoming indictment of President Trump. https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1637844975248605185 Republican AGs and DAs need to start investigating the entire Democrat crime mafia. Hillary Clinton, Joe and Hunter, Podesta, Soros, etc. It’s a sad day in America, but the Regime only understands power – time to use some of our own.
‘A Lot of Those Parents Did Not Finish High School’: State Rep Insults Intelligence of Parents Seeking School Choice – Georgia Rep. Lydia Glaize (D) says the QUIET PART OUT LOUD: “… I see parents being able to direct their child’s education, and they are already in the lower 25 percentile. Meaning, a lot of those parents did not finish high school, could not finish their own education. I am extremely concerned that we would put money in their hands, that entire piece of life in the hands of parents who are not qualified to make those decisions, and they don’t have the money to put in the difference that their child would need to attend a private school.”… (Does this logic go for welfare?) https://dailycaller.com/2023/03/20/georgia-lydia-glaze-school-choice-didnt-finish-high-school/ @DeAngelisCorey: She sent all of her kids to private school.
‘Hellish’ solar tornado erupts on Sun: ‘Never seen anything like it’ https://trib.al/aRdvU4F (Due to global warming on Earth, like every other problem!)
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING
I will see you TOMORROW
STARTING TOMORROW, I WILL ONLY DO ABBREVIATED COMMENTARIES,
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
With the collapse yesterday of the world’s first SIFI (systemically important financial institution – “too big to fail”) bank, Credit Suisse, the reality that the financial system of western culture is now on the brink of collapse is starting to sink in with Americans. While still not headline news in the American corporate media, financial headlines were notably pessimistic today, even with the stock market posting gains. The more dire outlooks are still being published as “opinion pieces,” but it appears that more and more Americans are starting to face the reality that life as we have known it, is about to radically change. Here is an article that was featured on the Home Page of Market Watch for most of the day today, while the markets were open. And while it is listed as an “opinion” piece, it sure reads like a news article to me. “Opinion: The end of the ‘everything bubble’ has finally hit the banking system. Credit Suisse and SVB might be just the first of many shocks.” The independent financial alternative media, without needing investors and editors’ approval to print anything, was much more apocalyptic. Here are a few headlines from ZeroHedge News today: “The Banking System is On The Brink of Collapse,” “This Financial Crisis Will Be Like None Other In History,” “Nowhere To Hide In CMBS: CRE Nuke Goes Off With Small Banks Accounting For 70% Of Commercial Real Estate Loans.” A New World Order is emerging, and it is NOT led by the Davos Crowd and the World Economic Forum.Read More…
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