MARCH 22//GOLD WAS UP $6.10 TO $1944.70//SILVER WAS UP 20 CENTS TO $22.49//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER// SLAY NEWS UPDATES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES///HUGE RIOTS IN GERMANY AND FRANCE CONTINUES TO BURN A LA NERO//BANKING CRISIS IN EUROPE AND THE USA INTENSIFIES//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TODAY: AMBROSE EVANS PRITCHARD AND JOHN RUBINO//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 41 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 103 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9 661 C JP MORGAN 172 7 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 5 7 905 C ADM 13
TOTAL: 180 180 MONTH TO DATE: 5,153
JPMORGAN stopped 7/180 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 180 NOTICES FOR 18,000 OZ or 0.5598 TONNES
total notices so far: 5153 contracts for 515,300 oz (16.0279 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 52 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 260,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3143 for 15,715,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.40 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.781 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.566. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1824 CONTRACTS TO 119,126 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.24 LOSSIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WITH TODAY’S READING AT THE COMEX, WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 119,126 CONTRACTS , MARCH 23/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.24). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1101 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 679 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON OF 250,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.825 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.825 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –44 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 12,753 contracts: OR 63.765 MILLION OZ . (797 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 63.765 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 63.765MILLION OZ//INITIAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1824 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.24 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 679 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 250,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.825 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1101OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 52 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 260,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,262 CONTRACTS TO 469,874 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED-3517 CONTRACTS. (huge)
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 10,262 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $38.70 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2900OZ (0.0920 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $38.70 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3323 OI CONTRACTS (10.335 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3422 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 473,391
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6840 CONTRACTS WITH 6745CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3422 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6840 CONTRACTS OR 21.275 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3422 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (46745) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6840 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 16.1648 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 71,792 CONTRACTS OR 7,179,200 OZ OR 223.30 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4487 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 223.30 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 223.30/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 223.30 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1824 CONTRACTS OI TO 119,082 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 119,082 CONTRACTS TODAY, MARCH 22/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 679 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 679 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 679 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1824 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 679 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1145 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //5.725 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.15 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.59 PTS OR 0.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 332.67 PTS OR 1.73% /The Nikkei closed UP 520.94 PTS OR 1.93% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.82% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8842//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8855// /Oil UP TO 69,48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75,01 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,262 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 469,874 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.70 ON TUESDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3422 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 3422 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3422 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG TOTAL OF 6,840 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3422LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,262 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.70. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (16.1648) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 16.1648 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $38.70) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6840 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 21.275 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2900OZ (0.0902 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38.70
WE HAD -3517 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6840 CONTRACTS OR 684000 OZ OR 21.275 TONNES
TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 290,606// //fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 415,048///extremely strong
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5153 notices 515300 16.0279 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of BRINKS: 6,430.200 oz (200 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 6430.200 oz
in tonnes: 0.20000 tonnes
Adjustments; 1
out of JPM: 12,117.720 oz adjusted out of dealer into customer account
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 224 contracts having LOST 204 contracts. We had 233 notices filed on TUESDAY so we
gained 29 contracts or an additional 2900 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April LOST A CONSIDERABLE 19,574 contracts DOWN to 149,209 contracts. It is here that our banker friends have to worry as many will try and take delivery in this upcoming delivery month.
May GAINED 140 contracts to stand at 517
We had 180 notice(s) filed today for 18000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 172 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 180 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,153 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 224 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 180 x 100 oz per contract equals 519,700 OZ OR 16.1648 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (5,153 x 100 oz+ 224 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (180)x 100 oz} which equals 519,700 oz standing OR 16.1648 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 16.1648 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3143 x 5,000 oz = 15,715,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(74) and the number of notices served upon today 52 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3143 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (74) – number of notices served upon today (52) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.825 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.825 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 924.55 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER UP XX TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 458.566MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Schiff: Investors Will Bid Up Gold When They Realize Inflation Is Winning
Peter appeared on Fox Business Claman Countdown to talk about the recent bank failures and the ensuing government bailouts. During the interview, they discussed how to invest in the current environment. Peter said that right now, gold is undervalued, but investors will bid up the price much higher when they come to terms with the reality of inflation.
To open the interview, Peter called the government rescue of the banking system “another mistake in a long line of mistakes.”
It’s because of the government that Silicon Valley Bank was in the position that it was. The reason it owned so many long-term, low-yielding US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities was because the Fed kept interest rates at zero for so long. And the reason that it chose those assets was because bank regulators kind of pushed banks into Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities because they give them favorable accounting treatment. They don’t have to take any haircuts. They don’t have to mark them to market. So, the government created the problem.”
Peter said now they are creating an even bigger problem with the bailout.
This is going to cost Americans a lot of money, not because their taxes are going to be raised, but because the Federal Reserve is financing this massive bailout by creating even more inflation. So, Americans are going to pay for this at the supermarket, at the gas station. Their cost of living is going to go way up. If you thought inflation was bad last year, it’s about to get a whole lot worse.”
So, how do you invest in this environment?
Peter said it’s important to look for companies that do well in an inflationary time period with rising interest rates.
We’re going to be in that for the balance of this decade and maybe longer. So, you want to have companies that have real earnings, right now, not in the distant future — that pay good dividends, and importantly, sell products and services that consumers need to buy.”
Peter said that most significantly, he believes the dollar is going to tank.
We’re going to have a currency crisis, not just a financial crisis. And so, you’ll have a much better hedge against inflation if your income streams are coming from abroad because they’re being paid to you in foreign currencies, and when you translate them back into weakening US dollars, that means even higher dividends and that will help offset the rising cost of living that you’re going to be experiencing here in the United States as a result of past, current, and future risk and excessive Fed money printing.”
Claman pointed out that bitcoin has gone up 11% since the bank failures while gold was only up 3% (at the time of the interview). “People are choosing bitcoin over gold,” she said.
Well, remember, bitcoin dropped precipitously before that rally, so it’s really just gone on a round trip. It hasn’t gone anywhere. But I don’t like gold as an investment. I like it as money. It’s an alternative to the dollar, to the euro, to the Japanese yen. It’s a store of value. It preserves wealth. I like stocks to grow my wealth, but gold to preserve it.”
Peter emphasized that gold is way underpriced right now “because investors don’t realize how bad inflation is going to be in the future.”
They’ve overestimated the Fed’s ability to fight it. So, I think you can actually make money and preserve it right now with gold, because I think it has to be repriced higher to reflect the reality of much higher inflation. We’re not going to go back to two percent, probably in my lifetime. It’s going to be much higher than that, and when investors come to terms with that, they’re going to bid up the price of gold much higher.”
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino
At the beginning of last week, everyone expected central banks to “tighten until something breaks”. By the end of the week it was clear that they’d already broken everything.
Two middling US banks imploded, European mega-bank Credit Suisse finally died a well-justified death, and “who’s next?” speculation ran wild. And just like that, the era of tight money ended.
Now the world’s monetary authorities have broadened the definition of “systemic risk” to cover pretty much anything. FDIC insurance has been extended to every bank account of any size. Credit Suisse is being bought for pennies on the dollar by rival Swiss giant UBS. And according to Bloomberg,
The Federal Reserve and five other central banks announced coordinated action on Sunday to boost liquidity in U.S. dollar swap arrangements, the latest effort by policymakers to ease growing strains in the global financial system.
Central banks involved in the dollar swaps will “increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily,” the Fed said in a statement coordinated with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank.
The Fed’s balance sheet — a measure of how much currency it creates and dumps into the economy — had been shrinking, which is to say the US money supply had been contracting. Now it’s soaring, up $300 billion in a matter of days.
The piecemeal, fingers-in-the-dike character of this response can be explained in one of two ways: Either the moronsrunning the global financial system were completely blindsided because they actually thought rising interest rates and a falling money supply would slow inflation without unintended consequences, despite a century of contrary experience. Or the evil geniuses running the global financial system have engineered a multi-faceted crisis as an excuse to assume total control.
I’m agnostic on the above, but in either case, it seems clear that the world’s governments won’t be able to stop conditions from deteriorating. Consider:
Lenders were already scared. Now they’re terrified
Banks were already tightening credit standards before last week’s flash crisis. Now virtually all of them will stop lending to any but their strongest clients. A year from now the updated version of this chart will show a spike to record high tightening levels.
Autos are a bursting bubble
The number of underwater car loans, where the loan balance exceeds the value of the car, has been rising for months. Interest rates on used car loans had jumped from an average of 8% to over 10% in the past year. And auto loan delinquency rates have climbed to their highest levels in over 15 years, with an especially big jump among subprime borrowers. Now panicked banks will make car loans even harder to get while a growing number of borrowers will default on their existing loans. Typical recession behavior, but this time against a crisis backdrop.
Commercial real estate was toast in any event, but now it’s burnt toast
Office buildings, warehouses and such never fully recovered from the pandemic lockdowns, and by the 4th quarter of 2022 delinquencies on commercial real estate loans were rising sharply. Building prices were beginning to fall, and the specter of a commercial real estate crash was looming. And that was before banks and regulators went into their current panic mode.
Now just try refinancing an underperforming office complex and see how it goes.
And there’s more…
Stephanie Pomboy, an analyst whose work has been spot-on lately, tweeted this 12 hours ago:
ya know what’s keeping me up at night? Thinking about the unseen exposure by NONbank finl institutions to things far riskier than the stuff bringing down the banks. Esp, the prospect that some insurer (&counterparty in the giant mkt of credit derivatives) is about to go toes up
And don’t even get me started on pensions. I’ve ranted breathlessly on that. They will be the subject of a bailout the likes of which we have never before witnessed. If you think the bank bailout is gonna be massive…stay tuned. You ain’t seen nothing.
In other words, a lot can still go wrong, because excessive leverage is hidden all over the place. A pension bust would mean a multi-trillion dollar bailout, for instance, and that was probably coming even in “normal” times. As for derivatives, well, they’ll destroy the world eventually, so why not now?
The take-away? In the midst of all the various credit crises, controlling inflation will be moved to the back burner. And the world will realize that the central banks are out of ammo, with no choice but to let their currencies burn.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
This has zero chance of happening
(Bloomberg/GATA)
U.S. studies ways to insure all bank deposits if crisis grows
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-21 11:19Section: Daily Dispatches
By Saleha Mohsin and Sridhar Natarajan Bloomberg News Monday, March 20, 2023
U.S. officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.
Treasury Department staff are reviewing whether federal regulators have enough emergency authority to temporarily insure deposits greater than the current $250,000 cap on most accounts without formal consent from a deeply divided Congress, according to people with knowledge of the talks.
Authorities don’t yet view such a move as necessary, especially after regulators took steps this month to help banks keep up with any demands for withdrawals, the people said, asking not to be named describing confidential talks. Still, they are developing a strategy out of due diligence in case the situation worsens. …
Swiss regulators have tossed nitroglycerin onto the global financial fire. They have also committed shameless expropriation. So much for the safety of Zurich.
The total wipe-out of $17 billion of Credit Suisse’s tier 1 bonds renders the convertible debt market in Europe almost uninvestable. These junior bonds ought to trump equities in market hierarchy. Clearly they do not. “It means the banking crisis we’ve seen over the past few weeks has started a new chapter,” said Russ Mould from AJ Bell.
The Invesco AT1 capital bond fund, which pools such bank debt from the likes of Barclays or Credit Agricole, crashed by 18% as investors digested the terms of the rescue deal for Credit Suisse.
It recovered after a startled European Central Bank rushed out a reassurance that no such atrocity would happen in the eurozone. But it did in fact happen to AT1 bondholders of Spain’s Banco Popular in 2017, overlooked as a minor incident at the time.
When push comes to shove, it is easier to fleece the sophisticated foreign funds that buy these instruments than to wipe out retail shareholders, in this case Swiss citizens with a political voice.
There is a reason why regulators were loath to impose haircuts on bonds at the onset of the eurozone debt crisis, even if it meant taxpayer bailouts and the stench of moral hazard. Merely to talk about write-downs risked instant contagion.
You can date the moment that the small Greek crisis turned into the larger Italian and Spanish crisis, and therefore became an existential threat to Europe’s monetary union.
It was when Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy — walking on the beach at Deauville in October 2010 — opened the door to haircuts on sovereign debt. Investors hurried to the exits, sauve qui peut.
The justification for selling Credit Suisse at 7% of book value and vaporising its bonds is that the bank is in worse trouble than supposed. Disentangling the politics of this is tricky but the episode overall tells us that global monetary tightening has already done more systemic damage.
Regulators seem to have discovered a thicket of undisclosed losses. Capital Economics said the draconian terms of the shotgun marriage with UBS suggests that “a substantial part of Credit Suisse’s $570 billion assets may be either impaired or perceived as being at risk of becoming impaired”.
What is shocking is that a large and historic global bank could disintegrate in days, even if the deeper rot lies in slow-motion deposit flight over many months. Credit Suisse had larger capital buffers than most global banks. That Maginot Line so favoured by Basle regulators has proved next to useless.
“Right up until its forced sale, the bank had ample capital. Until the past few days, it also had ample liquidity. Its liquidity crunch was caused by the evaporation of trust from the market,” said Clive Horwood, from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
It was the same lightning devastation of four US banks. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in California lost $42 billion of deposits in a single day on March 10.
The sequence of pre-Lehman financial tremors in 2007 — Icelandic banks, Bear Stearns, Northern Rock — seem almost leisurely by comparison. Our instant digital culture has accelerated the mechanisms of a modern bank-run.
The prevailing narrative is that SVB was a maverick bank with over-exposure to the US tech bubble and to interest rate risk from US Treasuries, and too reliant on large uninsured depositors. This is true as far as it goes (not far), but it evades the larger issue.
“SVB was a good bank. It did what it was supposed to do: invest in mortgages and Treasuries,” said Professor Larry Kotlikoff from Boston University.
There was nothing wrong with SVB’s loan book. It was not facing a wave of defaults. It chose to park excess deposits in AAA bonds for safe-keeping after stepping back from lending to Silicon Valley as the tech cycle rolled over. It had the best collateral in the world.
Yet it blew up suddenly because it had not taken out adequate hedge protection against breakneck monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve. It was forced to crystallise paper losses that were exempt from rules on mark-to-market pricing.
That ought to give pause for thought. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation says US banks were $620 billion underwater on bond holdings as of December. How many others risk a bank run the moment they have to start selling any supposedly safe assets at a loss?
The fire at SVB was suppressed with an emergency guarantee of all the bank’s uninsured depositors. But that begs a larger question. What about the other $8 trillion of uninsured deposits in the US banking system? Are they implicitly insured, or not?
Republic Bank also faced deposit flight and had to be rescued by a $30 billion whip round among the big banks. This has not yet done the trick. Republic’s share price fell a further 30% in New York last night.
The bank is not a basket case. It passed the Dodd-Frank stress test: ergo, regulators concluded that its portfolio of mortgage loans could weather the housing slump. Prof Kotlikoff said it appeared to be “an exceptionally strong bank.”
Over three days last week, the Fed increased emergency loans of different kinds from almost nothing to $318 billion.
“To put that in context, it’s a far more severe liquidity crunch than at the start of the pandemic and not far off the financial crisis peak of $437.5 billion in mid-October 2008. This is a very serious crisis in the banking system,” said Paul Ashworth from Capital Economics.
In parallel, the Federal Home Loan Bank tapped the US Treasury for $250 billion of liquidity to alleviate acute stress among regional and community banks.
These rescues have become necessary because the US financial system cannot withstand the pace of rate rises and quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed.
“The current interest rate environment has had dramatic effects on the profitability and risk profile of the banks,” said the FDIC’s Martin Gruenberg. Well, indeed.
As long as Jerome Powell’s Fed thinks its chief task is to crush inflation — overdone in my view, since money contraction already implies that inflation will come down with a lag – the banking crisis will continue to escalate and spread.
Philip Turner, a former senior official at the Bank for International Settlements, said these bank failures are not one-off idiosyncratic upsets. The pathology is more fundamental.
“The scale, opacity, and interconnectedness of interest rate exposures remains the major systemic risk right now. This is the inevitable consequence of monetary policies pursued over the last 15 years. Central banks bought long-term assets for more than a decade in order to depress government bond yields well below sustainable market levels,” he said.
“Regulators adopted rules and practices that induced banks, pension funds, and insurance companies to take on even more rate risk,” said Professor Turner, writing for the journal Central Banking.
It worked marvellously at first by reinforcing QE. The nefast consequence today is that benchmark safe assets have themselves become the transmission channel for financial shocks. Ah, the implacable law of unintended consequences.
Prof Turner is not saying that QE was wrong. The error was to persist too long, and at the wrong calibration.
We are now stuck in this brave new world. Central banks have swung from frenetic money creation in 2020-21 to the monetary death march of 2023, with all key measures of the money supply flashing red warnings in America and Europe.
The best we can hope for is a controlled hard landing but that requires a circuit-breaker. At a minimum, the Fed should halt its cycle of rate rises and suspend QT until the money growth recovers. The ECB should stop beating its chest until it is clearer how much damage it has already caused.
Will either act in time? Probably not. Central bankers have yet to acknowledge that the money supply is dangerously out of kilter. So brace for a long hot summer of financial accidents until they get the message.
end
As we reported to you last night: JPMorgan held more than one trillion dollars of uninsured deposits at year end 2022 and it is now much much higher as the bank absorbed huge amounts of regional bank deposits.
(Pam and Russ Martens)
Pam and Russ Martens: At year-end JPM held more than $1 trillion in uninsured deposits
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-21 12:04Section: Daily Dispatches
By Pam and Russ Martens Wall Street on Parade Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Jamie Dimon is the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, which is also ranked the riskiest global bank by its regulators. But instead of getting his own house in order in the midst of a banking crisis, Dimon has been peculiarly focused elsewhere.
Over the past five days Dimon’s legions of publicists have been burning up the phone lines with reporters, pushing the narrative that Dimon is some kind of financial wizard who needs to have a seat at the table to save the regional bank, First Republic Bank.
Last Thursday news hit the wire services that Dimon had lined up 11 banks willing to place $30 billion in uninsured deposits into First Republic Bank. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo each ponied up $5 billion — or two-thirds of the $30 billion. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation caps federal deposit insurance at $250,000 per depositor, per bank.
Taking $5 billion of your bank’s shareholders’ money and throwing it at a regional bank whose stock price is collapsing was not viewed as the brightest of ideas by the stock market. …
Jan lays out the case for $8,000 gold. Jan’s former nomme de plume is Koos Jansen
(Jan Nieuwenhuijs)
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: The hierarchy of money and the case for $8,000 gold
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-21 21:31Section: Daily Dispatches
9:31p ET Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold market researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today that central banks are gradually turning away from government currencies and back toward gold for the major component of their financial reserves. He calculates a likely future valuation of gold in U.S. dollars that is substantially higher than the price shown on charts tonight.
Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “The Hierarchy of Money and the Case for $8,000 Gold” and it’s posted at the Gainesville Coins internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Gata chairman, interviewed by GoldSeek radio’s Chris Waltzek. He correctly states that gold/silver always has bullish fundamentals despite the price manipulation
(courtesy GATA)
GATA Chairman Murphy interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-21 22:46Section: Daily Dispatches
10:45p ET Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek this week interviewed GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, who said the bullish fundamentals for gold and silver remain in place — as does manipulation of their markets by what he calls the gold cartel.
The next big rally in the metals, Murphy says, could fire up faster than anyone expects.
The interview is 12 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
Swiss Central Bank Moved Its Gold to a Bunker
Kevin Wallien
11:29 AM (11 minutes ago)
to me
Another article updated Nov. ’22 that seems to support a looming revaluation of gold by Central Banks.
For Suisse with national debt at $250B and 1000MT of gold in SNB, to pay off national debt they would need $4400 gold notwithstanding the additional debt SNB incurs by bailing out its banking system which easily doubles that number.
Normally, OeNB’s gold, other foreign central banks’ gold, the BIS’s gold, and most of SNB’s gold is at Bundesplatz 1, but due to the renovation it was moved to K20.
“In Switzerland it’s a state secret where the central bank stores its gold domestically. From all the information I could gather I conclude the Swiss central bank primarily stores its gold—and that of foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements—on Bundesplatz 1 in the capital Berne.
This vault may be one of the largest globally. However, due to a renovation the vault is now empty. The metal has temporarily been transferred to a federal bunker near Kandersteg, deep in the Swiss mountains.”
In 1999 Swiss journalists discovered that the government had arranged a classified command facility near Kandersteg in the Alps, 40 miles south of Berne, to hide during a nuclear attack. Since 2004 the exact coordinates of the facility are publicly known.
For nearly two decades not a word was written about any gold being stored at the bunker dubbed “K20.” Then, in 2018, independent journalist Henry Habegger reported K20 also incorporates an SNB vault. People familiar with the matter shared with Habegger that when K20 was built, SNB took the opportunity to acquire a nuclear bomb-proof vault for its gold reserves. K20 has room for 6,000 tonnes of gold.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8842
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8855
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.59 PTS OR 0.31%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 332.67 PTS OR 1.73 %
2. Nikkei closed UP 520.94 PTS OR 1.93%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.70 Euro RISES TO 1.0794 UP 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.324!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 132.86/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.361%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.198%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.397…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.197//
3j Gold at $1942.90//silver at: 22.43 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 24/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.89//
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.86/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .324% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9222–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9982well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.601% up 0 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.746 UP 1 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1932 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.04…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.512% UP 14 BASIS PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Flat Ahead Of “Most Important Fed Decision Of 2023”
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 08:13 AM
S&P 500 futures little changed, reversing a modest drop earlier in the session, and were set for a muted open on Wednesday after two days of gains, with investors awaiting the “most important Federal Reserve rate decision of 2023” and as recent turmoil in the global banking sector subsided. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 were up 0.1% by 7:30 a.m. ET while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. Both underlying indexes have gained for two consecutive sessions. European stocks fluctuated in a narrow range and Treasury yields were unchanged after a surge on Tuesday that added 19 basis points to the two-year maturity. The dollar dropped for a 5th straight day, its longest losing streak since April 2021, while the pound strengthened after a surprise jump in UK inflation which came above all expectations.
Among notable movers in US premarket trading, GameStop surged after reporting a surprise fourth quarter adjusted profit, lifting other meme stocks including AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond. Shares in First Republic Bank reversed all afterhous losses and edged higher as Wall Street leaders and US officials are exploring the possibility of government backing to encourage a deal that would shore up the lender. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Nike shares decline 1.6% in premarket trading after the sportswear brand said in prepared remarks that full-year gross margin will come in at the low end of the previous guidance range. Analysts flagged the challenges Nike faces in moving to a cleaner inventory position.
GameStop rose as much as 50% after the video game retailer reported a surprise fourth quarter adjusted profit, with Jefferies noting that cost reductions are showing early signs of progress. Other meme stocks including AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond US) also jumped.
Virgin Orbit Holdings rose as much as 155%, after the company said it was targeting “an incremental resumption of operations” after temporarily halting activities last week.
Meta Platforms edged up 0.4%, after KeyBanc raised its recommendation on the Facebook parent, the third broker to turn bullish on the stock in the space of a week. Keybanc upped the stock to overweight, from sector weight, citing bigger-than-expected cost cuts and robust ad revenue.
Shares of US-listed Chinese electric vehicle makers may be in focus after Nio (NIO US) said it’s confident of reaching its target of doubling sales this year. Keep an eye on Nio as well as peers XPeng (XPEV US) and Li Auto (LI US).
US stocks rebounded this week after investors were rocked by the collapse of several lenders earlier in the month, spurring fears about the health of the financial system and the negative impact from higher rates on the economy. Government and monetary intervention managed to restore some calm this week, with the S&P 500 benchmark erasing monthly losses on Tuesday. The S&P Banks Index also rebounded, but is still down 18% this month. Technical indicators also showed positive signs, with MACD momentum improving for both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones, while being firmly in positive territory for the Nasdaq 100.
That said, confidence is extremely fragile, with all eyes are now on the Fed for clues about the path of interest rates going forward. As explained, the “trapped” Fed’s next move will reveal whether the fight against inflation trumps fears of financial instability from the banking fallout in recent weeks, and vice versa. Consensus is for a 25-bp hike and swaps markets now signal 80% odds on that after market pricing was split between a hike and a pause earlier in the week, but some voices urge a pause after the banking turmoil. One economist said the “tension is leading to existential angst.” Our full FOMC preview is here.
“If the Fed raises by 50 basis points, it will come as a huge surprise and the market won’t like it,” said Roger Lee, head of UK equities at Investec Bank Plc. “But ironically, if they don’t raise at all, the market will get concerned about that too, as it will pose questions about what the Fed is seeing that the market isn’t.” Well, one thing the Fed could be seeing is all the bank failures that nobody – neither the Fed, nor the market – was seeing as recently as two weeks ago. So it’s not clear they need to so anything more.
“In the run-up to today’s US interest rate decision, most market participants will be more cautious,” said Comdirect Bank strategist Andreas Lipkow. “In the current situation, it doesn’t take much to create high levels of volatility on the financial markets. On the one hand, investors are nervous, but at the same time don’t want to miss any further upside performance. The FOMO effect was already clearly visible yesterday.”
European stocks also advanced, with the Stoxx 600 adding 0.3% and on course for a third consecutive gain as banks stocks outperform. UK inflation accelerated unexpectedly in February, cementing expectations that the Bank of England will deliver another 25bps hike on Thursday. UK two-year yields have jumped ~17bps while the British pound raced to the top of the G-10 pile, rising 0.6% versus the greenback. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Rovio shares fall as much as 8.5%, after the Finnish mobile game maker said it has ended non-binding preliminary talks with Playtika, which had offered to buy the firm
BHG falls as much as 8.4%, extending losses into a seventh session, after Danske Bank cut its recommendation to sell from hold on deteriorating demand
UBS shares rise as much as 3.6%, erasing almost all the losses made during the banking rout, emerging the winner from the historic rescue deal for rival Credit Suisse AG
Marks & Spencer gains as much as 4.8% after getting upgraded by three analysts, with Citi citing a less pessimistic UK macro outlook
Fevertree Drinks shares jump as much as 10%, the most since November, after the maker of tonics and mixers reported full-year adjusted Ebitda that beat estimates
Skistar rallies as much as 7.1% after Nordea initiates coverage of the Nordic ski resort operator with a buy recommendation, erasing Tuesday’s losses
Vistry Group jumps as much as 4.5% after the UK homebuilder reported full-year revenue that beat estimates and gave guidance for 2023 that Citi sees as encouraging
Axfood gains as much as 1.4%, outperforming a flat wider market, after Danske Bank raised its recommendation for the Swedish grocery group to hold from sell
Colruyt surges as much as 15%, the most in three years, after Virya Energy announces sale of 100% of the shares in offshore wind energy platform Parkwind
UBS has erased almost all of its share losses suffered during the rout. It offered to buy back €2.75 billion ($3 billion) of bail-in notes it sold on Friday, two days before snapping up Credit Suisse, citing a “prudent assessment” of exceptional developments.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, with a gauge of the region’s financial shares headed for its biggest advance in more than two months, as concerns over a global banking crisis abated and focus turned to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.6% as firms including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Commonwealth Bank of Australia jumped. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark was among the top gainers in Asia, boosted by tech names, while Japan’s gauges also rose in catch-up trade. Sentiment improved following authorities’ assurances including comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said the US government could intervene if the stability of smaller lenders are threatened. Asian investors are now focused on the Fed’s decision as they assess the outlook for international money flows, with most of the region’s emerging markets seeing foreign funds turn net sellers this month.
“The focus for the upcoming Fed will clearly have to address the current financial stability concerns while pretending to stay on message on inflation considerations,” Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. Investors should consider how the Fed “positions its level of concern around recent events and the risk of a funding crisis in the banking system,” they added. Read: Yellen Says US Will Intervene If Needed to Protect Smaller Banks The Hang Seng gained 1.7%, paring this month’s loss in the wake of the collapse of three US regional banks and the takeover of Switzerland’s Credit Suisse Group AG. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.9%, the biggest jump since Jan. 18 after investors returned from a national holiday.
Japanese stocks also rose in catch-up trade as traders returned from a national holiday, buying shares ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Topix Index gained 1.7% to 1,962.93 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.9% to 27,466.61. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 4.2%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 2,000 rose and 126 fell, while 33 were unchanged. Shares rose across Asia, tracking US gains, as concerns over financial stability eased amid assurances from authorities including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Expectations for Fed’s rate hikes have declined over the last two weeks in the wake of the collapse of three US regional banks and the takeover of Switzerland’s Credit Suisse Group AG. “Yellen’s comments and the ECB policy on AT1 bonds may have calmed investors,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, general manager at SBI Securities
Australian stock gained: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.9% to close at 7,015.60, in a broad rally supported by energy stocks and banks. Lenders continued to reclaim recent losses as fears over the financial sector ease, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest-rate decision later Wednesday. Traders placed greater odds that the Fed will raise interest rates 25 basis points after market pricing was split between a hike and a pause earlier in the week. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,586.93
Key stocks gauges in India rose on Wednesday, tracking a risk-on trade across most Asian markets, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later on Wednesday. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 0.2% to 58,214.59 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.3% as the gauges rose for the fourth session in five. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 0.9%. Out of 30 stocks in the index, 18 rose and 11 fell, while one was little changed.
In FX, the pound extended gains as traders firmed up bets on a quarter-point hike on Thursday, while UK bonds fell. A Bloomberg index of dollar strength retreated. The BBDXY headed for a fifth day of losses, the longest losing streak since April 2021, but as long as 55-DMA supports holds, topside risks remain intact; on the weekly, the gauge is struggling to stay within the cloud given the bearish MA crossover and RSI divergence
In rates, treasuries were steady, yields within a couple of basis points of Tuesday’s closing levels with the belly outperforming, steepening 5s30s and unwinding a portion of Tuesday’s sharp flattening move. US 10-year yields steady around 3.60%, slightly richer on the day with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 6bp and 11bp in the sector; UK curve aggressively bear-flattens with 2-year yields cheaper by ~20bp on the day following hot February CPI numbers. Bunds underperform, following wider losses in gilts during London hours after UK inflation increased unexpectedly. US session includes Fed rate decision and updated economic projections at 2pm New York time and Chair Powell news conference at 2:30pm.
In commodities, crude futures declined with WTI down 0.4% to trade near $69.40. Spot gold rises 0.3% to around $1,945
Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision along with Chair Powell’s press conference. Other central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane, Rehn, Wunsch, Panetta and Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include the UK CPI release for February.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures flat at 4,035.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% at 447.56
MXAP up 1.4% to 158.37
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 509.91
Nikkei up 1.9% to 27,466.61
Topix up 1.7% to 1,962.93
Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 19,591.43
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,265.75
Sensex up 0.2% to 58,206.75
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,015.59
Kospi up 1.2% to 2,416.96
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.32%
Euro little changed at $1.0777
Brent Futures down 0.6% to $74.85/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,943.64
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 103.12
Top Overnight News
China has for the first time approved a Covid-19 vaccine based on mRNA technology, greenlighting a homegrown shot months after the ruling Communist Party eliminated its strict pandemic restrictions. China has long refused to use the foreign-made mRNA shots that were crucial in easing the pandemic in many parts of the world and that the United States first authorized for emergency use in December 2020. NYT
China’s auto industry association on Wednesday urged automakers and authorities to cool “price-cut hype” to ensure the stable development of the industry. “A price war is not a long-term solution”, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers wrote. RTRS
UK inflation spikes beyond expectations, coming in at +10.4% Y/Y (up from +10.1% in January and ahead of the St’s +9.9% forecast, with the largest upside contributors coming from restaurants/cafes, food, and clothing), placing further pressure on the BOE ahead of its meeting on Thursday. RTRS
ECB’s Lagarde warns that the battle against inflation is far from over (“we do not see clear evidence that underlying inflation is trending downwards”). ECB
Bundesbank head said monetary officials need to be “stubborn” and continue hiking rates to combat inflation as the battle against elevated prices isn’t over. FT
UBS offered to buy back €2.75 billion of bail-in notes it sold on Friday, two days before snapping up Credit Suisse, citing a “prudent assessment” of exceptional developments. Holders were invited to tender for cash bonds due March 2028 and March 2032 at their respective reoffer price. BBG
S&P warned the wipeout of Credit Suisse’s AT1 notes raises the risk of heavy losses in similar debt of other banks, making future issuance more expensive. BBG
FRC tapped Lazard to help with a review of strategic options that could include a sale, a capital infusion or asset trimming, according to people familiar with the matter. It also hired consulting firm McKinsey & Co. to help map out a postcrisis structure for the bank, the people said. WSJ
Oil dipped ahead of an interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve following a two-day rally, as reassurances that authorities will work to contain the banking crisis brought some investors back to risk assets: BBG
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, making his first visit to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion, offered strong support to Ukraine and invited President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to take part in the Group of Seven summit in mid-May, to which Zelenskiy accepted: BBG
First Republic rescue may rely on US backing to reach a deal: BBG
Ukraine won staff backing for a $15.6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, setting up the first loan to a nation at war in the institution’s 77-year history: BBG
Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer don’t agree on much, but neither party leader in the US Congress is in a rush to push legislation addressing the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks sustained the momentum from Wall St where the major indices rallied for a second consecutive day. ASX 200 was firmer as energy and the consumer sectors spearheaded the advances in the index which climbed back above the psychological 7,000 level. Nikkei 225 was boosted as it played catch-up on its return from holiday amid notable strength in the banking industry and with Japan set to allocate more than JPY 2tln from reserves for measures to cushion the blow to the economy from rising prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood with initial outperformance in Hong Kong, while the advances in the mainland were limited after the PBoC’s liquidity drain and with with reports yesterday suggesting the US is seeking to prevent China from benefitting from its USD 52bln chip funding.
Top Asian News
Taiwan’s President Tsai plans to transit through New York and LA as part of her trip to Central America, while the Deputy Defence Minister said the Defence Ministry has contingency plans for all moves by China during President Tsai’s overseas trip, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they will allocate more than JPY 2tln from reserves for measures to cushion the blow to the economy from rising prices, according to Reuters.
Japan maintains overall economic view; cuts Industrial Output view for first time since December 2022; cuts Corporate Profits view for first time since April 2020.
European bourses are mostly in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone continues though benchmarks are confined to pre-FOMC ranges. Upside with the exception of the FTSE 100 -0.2% following hot UK CPI and a subsequent hawkish shift in pricing for Thursday’s BoE; 25bp now priced, ~10% chance of 50bp implied. Sectors are mixed with Banking names outperforming once again while defensively-biased sectors are lagging and incrementally softer. Stateside, futures are confined to narrow pre-FOMC parameters and are little changed/slightly softer, ES -0.1%
Top European News
UK government said GBP 1.8bln was awarded to boost energy efficiency and cut emissions of homes and public buildings across England, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Nagel said the fight against inflation is not over and that rate-setters must be more stubborn in the inflation fight, while he added there is still some way to go but we are approaching restrictive territory, according to FT.
ECB’s Lagarde says they are neither committed to hiking nor is the ECB finished with hiking; can see a more-prolonged cost-push coming from wage growth.
ECB Lane says there are reasons to believe that underlying inflation measures will ease over time; inflation falling is predicated on wage growth peaking this year.
Greek PM announces May elections following the rail disaster, according to AFP News Agency.
French and German banks reportedly are facing “a 500-fold increase” in capital requirements for trades in India from May after the ESMA said there were no talks with India to resolve a dispute, FT reports.
FX
The USD is on the back-foot ahead of the FOMC and Powell’s presser with the index’s downside largely a function of hot UK CPI.
Specifically, DXY slipped below 103.00 to a 10297 trough as Cable has been lifted to an unsuccessful test of 1.23 from a 1.2209 trough alongside a marked hawkish shift in BoE pricing.
Action which has prevented the EUR from extending convincingly beyond Tuesday’s ranges, with EUR/GBP down to a 0.8773 low.
Antipodeans are the next best performers, though this action occurs following marked pressure in recent sessions and is more of a consolidation than a concerted move higher thus far.
At the bottom of the G10 pile are the JPY and CHF with the havens little changed overall given the firmer risk tone but with pre-FOMC tentativeness preventing any real downside thus far.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8715 vs exp. 6.8710 (prev. 6.8763)
Fixed Income
Gilts are under marked pressure following February’s CPI release showing an unexpected uptick in price pressures, with EGBs down in sympathy.
Specifically, Gilts dropped below 104.00 to a 103.53 trough with the 10yr yield testing 3.50% while Bunds slipped to a 135.24 low.
Stateside, USTs came under some modest pressure but remain flat/firmer around 114.10 ahead of the US policy announcement with the yield curve mixed and slightly steeper currently.
Commodities
Commodities are experiencing some modest divergence, with crude softer while metals are flat/firmer.
WTI & Brent are in the red but holding around the mid-point of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters with specific drivers limited aside from weekly crude reports.
Spot gold resides just under USD 1950/oz ahead of the afternoon’s risk events while base metals glean support from the firmer risk tone.
Petroecuador declared a force majeure on three oil blocks due to community protests.
JPMorgan sees iron ore at USD 100/t in Q4 2023 (vs current spot USD 120/t).
Geopolitics
Ukrainian President Zelensky invited China for talks on Ukraine but is waiting for an answer. it was separately reported that Zelensky said they need ammunition from partners and need it now, according to Reuters.
Russian forces have almost completely surrounded Bakhmut, according to Donetsk’s pro-Russian authorities cited by Al Jazeera.
US said there are no signs that the summit between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin will lead to peace in Ukraine, according to FT.
Syrian Defence Ministry said an Israeli air strike targeted Syria’s Aleppo International Airport and caused some damage to it, according to Reuters.
US and South Korea are planning to conduct South Korea’s “largest ever” live-fire drills in June as part of a program for the 70th anniversary of the alliance between the two countries, according to Bloomberg.
North Korea is suspected to have fired a cruise missile on Wednesday, according to South Korean press Chosun; “North Korea launches several cruise missiles”, according to Yonhap
US Event Calendar
07:00: March MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 6.5%
14:00: March FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Boun, est. 5.00%, prior 4.75%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets put in another broadly positive performance over the last 24 hours, which makes it the first time since SVB’s collapse that we’ve had two decent sessions in a row. We’ll have to see if this is maintained, and there’ve certainly been false dawns before, but yesterday saw several milestones that added to the optimistic mood. Among others, bank stocks experienced their best performance so far this year, the VIX index of volatility fell to its lowest level since the current turmoil began, and the S&P 500 closed above its level on March 8 before worries about SVB surfaced in markets more broadly. We also saw another day of historic rates moves, with the 2yr German yield seeing its largest daily gain since 2008, at +25.6bps.
This more positive market sentiment has led to growing confidence that the Fed will follow through with a +25bp hike today, and futures are pricing in a roughly 82% chance they’ll go ahead with one. As the Fed come to that decision, it’s fair to say that had their discussions been on any of the last 8 business days, the tone could have been very different. Indeed, expectations of their decision today have bounced around considerably. Before the SVB collapse, Chair Powell had said in congressional testimony that they were “prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes”, which led investors to price in a strong chance of a 50bps move. But little more than a week later, after SVB had collapsed and with major concerns about Credit Suisse, just a 7.9bp hike was expected, signalling that markets were pricing in a pause as the most likely outcome. Since that low point however, more stable markets have led to a recovery in pricing, with a 20.6bps hike priced as we go to press this morning.
There’ll be plenty of focus on whether the Fed hike today, but just as important will be how they’re looking at the current turmoil and whether they still expect any more rate hikes after today. In their preview (link here), our US economists think that the ECB’s decision last week offers a relevant blueprint for the Fed: raise rates in line with expectations, drop forward guidance, but signal a continued tightening bias. As such they think the Summary of Economic Projections will be little changed from December, when it showed officials thought the Fed funds rate would be at 5.1% by year-end.
Ahead of all that, bank stocks put in a strong recovery yesterday as investor optimism grew that we might be past the worst. For instance, both Europe’s STOXX Banks index (+4.79%) and the US KBW Bank index (+4.95%) saw their best daily performances of 2023 so far. One factor helping sentiment were comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, who said that “similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion”. That supported significant gains among several banks, including UBS (+12.12%) which posted its largest advance since March 2020. Furthermore, First Republic (+29.47%) witnessed a major rebound following its -90% decline over the previous two weeks, though intraday it was nearly 60% higher. On First Republic, the lender remains the source of continued concern for both major Wall Street banks and Washington DC. Last night, Bloomberg reported that CEOs of major US banks and lawmakers remain in talks to ensure there is not further contagion risk as well as discussing what would make the bank more attractive to potential investors or outright buyers. And speaking of banks, Marion Laboure on our team has published a report this morning (link here) discussing the events of the last couple of weeks, which also looks at how Bitcoin has reached its highest level since June and points out the recent weakening in the correlation between US equities and crypto.
This strength among bank stocks helped lead a broader equity rally yesterday, and the S&P 500 ended the day up +1.30% to surpass its level on March 8. That’s the first time in the last couple of weeks that the S&P has recorded back-to-back advances, and as it happens it’s also the index’s best start to a week so far this year. The more cyclical sectors helped power the rally, while the only sectors that lagged were defensives such as utilities (-2.05%) and consumer staples (-0.12%). The rise in cyclicals and growth-oriented stocks led the NASDAQ (+1.56%), the FANG+ index (+2.30%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (1.88%) to outperform. This matched the tone in Europe, where the STOXX 600 was up +1.33% for the day.
The prospect of steadier market conditions meant that bond yields bounced back again yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr Treasury yield finished at its highs of the day, up +12.5bps to 3.609%, leaving it over +32bps above its intraday low on Monday morning. A big factor behind that has been the perception the Fed won’t need to cut rates as aggressively as anticipated only a few days ago, with the rate priced in for the December meeting up by a significant +31.5bps yesterday to 4.365%. Bear in mind that only a week ago we had over 100bps of rate cuts priced in for this year, and that’s now down to around “only” 60bps of cuts by year-end. This morning we’ve seen just slight tick down in yields again, with those 10yr Treasuries – 1.9bps lower at 3.59% as we go to print.
Over in Europe it was much the same story yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+16.7bps), OATs (+14.3bps) and BTPs (+12.8bps) all recovering from their recent declines. That was even more pronounced at the front-end of the curve, with the 2yr German yield (+25.6bps) seeing its largest daily gain since September 2008. As in the US, that came amidst a re-evaluation of the ECB’s policy trajectory, with another 25bp hike being priced in for the year ahead over the course of the day. This upbeat tone has been echoed by Asian equity markets overnight. All the major indices are in positive territory, including the Nikkei (+2.08%), the Hang Seng (+1.85%), the KOSPI (+1.07%), the CSI 300 (+0.16%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.11%). And futures are suggesting that will continue later on, with those on the Euro STOXX 50 up +0.29%, whilst those on the S&P 500 are up +0.06%. There were also signs of a declining global risk premium in FX markets, since the US Dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since February 3 this morning, having benefited from the flight into haven assets over recent days.
Looking at yesterday’s data, we had US existing home sales for February, which showed an unexpectedly large increase to an annualised rate of 4.58m (vs. 4.2m expected), marking their highest level in 5 months. Otherwise, the German ZEW survey for March was a bit weaker than expected, with the expectations component falling to 13.0 (vs. 15.0 expected). That’s the first decline in the expectations component after 5 consecutive monthly gains. Finally, Canada’s CPI fell to +5.2% in February (vs. +5.4% expected), which is the slowest year-on-year growth in the headline rate since January 2022.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision along with Chair Powell’s press conference. Other central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane, Rehn, Wunsch, Panetta and Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include the UK CPI release for February.
AND 2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Constructive tone continues despite hot UK CPI ahead of the FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 06:57 AM
Equities are firmer, ex-FTSE 100, as the constructive APAC tone continues
Though, action is contained in pre-FOMC action while the FTSE 100 lags post UK CPI
A release that was unexpectedly hot and sparked a marked hawkish reaction, with Cable outperforming and Gilts lagging as such
DXY pressured on this with antipodeans also firmer while the safe-havens are little changed pre-Fed
Commodities are diverging slightly; crude softer while metals are flat/firmer
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
BANKS
First Republic Bank (FRC) reportedly tapped Lazard for help with reviewing strategic options and picked global management consulting firm McKinsey for its post-crisis planning, according to WSJ. It was also reported that the First Republic Bank rescue may rely on US backing to facilitate a deal, while bankers at JPMorgan (JPM) working on a First Republic Bank deal are said to be facing difficulties finding a buyer without a significant government backstop, according to FBN’s Gasparino..
US SEC scrapped plans for a vote today on a rule that would have increased regulators’ visibility into financial risks at some hedge funds and private equity funds, according to WSJ.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mostly in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone continues though benchmarks are confined to pre-FOMC ranges.
Upside with the exception of the FTSE 100 -0.2% following hot UK CPI and a subsequent hawkish shift in pricing for Thursday’s BoE; 25bp now priced, ~10% chance of 50bp implied.
Sectors are mixed with Banking names outperforming once again while defensively-biased sectors are lagging and incrementally softer.
Stateside, futures are confined to narrow pre-FOMC parameters and are little changed/slightly softer, ES -0.1%
Nike (NKE) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 0.79 (exp. 0.55), Revenue 12.39bln (exp. 11.47bln). Co. said quarterly gross margin decreased primarily due to higher markdowns to liquidate inventory. Sees Q42023 rev. at flat to low single digit growth. Sees FY2023 rev. growth at a high single digit (exp. 7.2%). -1.5% in pre-market trade
Nike executive says North America apparel units were down by high single-digits in Q3, while it began to see a rebound in China brick-and-mortar traffic with strong retail momentum around the Lunar New Year accelerating into February.
Boeing (BA) secures order from Japan for 21 737 Max jets, via Reuters citing sources.
The USD is on the back-foot ahead of the FOMC and Powell’s presser with the index’s downside largely a function of hot UK CPI.
Specifically, DXY slipped below 103.00 to a 10297 trough as Cable has been lifted to an unsuccessful test of 1.23 from a 1.2209 trough alongside a marked hawkish shift in BoE pricing.
Action which has prevented the EUR from extending convincingly beyond Tuesday’s ranges, with EUR/GBP down to a 0.8773 low.
Antipodeans are the next best performers, though this action occurs following marked pressure in recent sessions and is more of a consolidation than a concerted move higher thus far.
At the bottom of the G10 pile are the JPY and CHF with the havens little changed overall given the firmer risk tone but with pre-FOMC tentativeness preventing any real downside thus far.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8715 vs exp. 6.8710 (prev. 6.8763)
Gilts are under marked pressure following February’s CPI release showing an unexpected uptick in price pressures, with EGBs down in sympathy.
Specifically, Gilts dropped below 104.00 to a 103.53 trough with the 10yr yield testing 3.50% while Bunds slipped to a 135.24 low.
Stateside, USTs came under some modest pressure but remain flat/firmer around 114.10 ahead of the US policy announcement with the yield curve mixed and slightly steeper currently.
Commodities are experiencing some modest divergence, with crude softer while metals are flat/firmer.
WTI & Brent are in the red but holding around the mid-point of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters with specific drivers limited aside from weekly crude reports.
Spot gold resides just under USD 1950/oz ahead of the afternoon’s risk events while base metals glean support from the firmer risk tone.
Petroecuador declared a force majeure on three oil blocks due to community protests.
JPMorgan sees iron ore at USD 100/t in Q4 2023 (vs current spot USD 120/t).
UK government said GBP 1.8bln was awarded to boost energy efficiency and cut emissions of homes and public buildings across England, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Nagel said the fight against inflation is not over and that rate-setters must be more stubborn in the inflation fight, while he added there is still some way to go but we are approaching restrictive territory, according to FT.
ECB’s Lagarde says they are neither committed to hiking nor is the ECB finished with hiking; can see a more-prolonged cost-push coming from wage growth.
ECB Lane says there are reasons to believe that underlying inflation measures will ease over time; inflation falling is predicated on wage growth peaking this year.
Greek PM announces May elections following the rail disaster, according to AFP News Agency.
French and German banks reportedly are facing “a 500-fold increase” in capital requirements for trades in India from May after the ESMA said there were no talks with India to resolve a dispute, FT reports.
NOTABLE DATA
UK CPI YY (Feb) 10.4% vs. Exp. 9.9% (Prev. 10.1%); Core CPI YY (Feb) 6.2% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.8%)
UK CPI MM (Feb) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.6%); Core CPI MM (Feb) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
Ukrainian President Zelensky invited China for talks on Ukraine but is waiting for an answer. it was separately reported that Zelensky said they need ammunition from partners and need it now, according to Reuters.
Russian forces have almost completely surrounded Bakhmut, according to Donetsk’s pro-Russian authorities cited by Al Jazeera.
US said there are no signs that the summit between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin will lead to peace in Ukraine, according to FT.
Syrian Defence Ministry said an Israeli air strike targeted Syria’s Aleppo International Airport and caused some damage to it, according to Reuters.
US and South Korea are planning to conduct South Korea’s “largest ever” live-fire drills in June as part of a program for the 70th anniversary of the alliance between the two countries, according to Bloomberg.
North Korea is suspected to have fired a cruise missile on Wednesday, according to South Korean press Chosun; “North Korea launches several cruise missiles”, according to Yonhap.
CRYPTO
Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GY) says Eurex is the first European exchange to launch Bitcoin index futures, scheduled for 17th April.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks sustained the momentum from Wall St where the major indices rallied for a second consecutive day.
ASX 200 was firmer as energy and the consumer sectors spearheaded the advances in the index which climbed back above the psychological 7,000 level.
Nikkei 225 was boosted as it played catch-up on its return from holiday amid notable strength in the banking industry and with Japan set to allocate more than JPY 2tln from reserves for measures to cushion the blow to the economy from rising prices.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood with initial outperformance in Hong Kong, while the advances in the mainland were limited after the PBoC’s liquidity drain and with with reports yesterday suggesting the US is seeking to prevent China from benefitting from its USD 52bln chip funding.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Taiwan’s President Tsai plans to transit through New York and LA as part of her trip to Central America, while the Deputy Defence Minister said the Defence Ministry has contingency plans for all moves by China during President Tsai’s overseas trip, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they will allocate more than JPY 2tln from reserves for measures to cushion the blow to the economy from rising prices, according to Reuters.
Japan maintains overall economic view; cuts Industrial Output view for first time since December 2022; cuts Corporate Profits view for first time since April 2020.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.59 PTS OR 0.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 332.67 PTS OR 1.73% /The Nikkei closed UP 520.94 PTS OR 1.93% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.82% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8842//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8855// /Oil UP TO 69,48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75,01 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/USA
Our own Steve Brown discusses how China must liquidate billions in USA assets:
…not just US Treasury instruments but all US assets.
The reason for the foregoing advice is of course that the former United States is very likely considering the imposition of blanket sanctions on China’s trade with the US, with secondary impact to international trade with the collective west overall.
Recall that the dollar US monetary system was designed as home for inflationary billions. Alternative markets in commodities and crypto currencies are not large enough, liquid enough, or profitable enough – or “safe” enough! – to accept hundreds of billions in ‘investment’, ie as a place for China to park the US billions it must liquidate. (Harvey: USA treasury assets total around $880 billion down from 1.1 trillion two years ago)
Point being that China is now faced with the same choice on impending western sanctions and the portent for such, that Russia faced at the time of their draft proposals for peace with the West in December, 2021. Call it deja vu or the inevitable, but China knows it’s next in line to face western gunsights, for regime change and destruction, the same that Russia must face today. China must therefore convert its US dollars before those dollars are seized by the western Axis.
The western gold market is relatively stable and liquid, but the virtual gold futures market is held and gamed by the same criminal banks that act as Primary Dealers to the Federal Reserve*, and ruled by the gold cartel. [The LBMA is essentially in charge of a criminal fixing operation. See: https://novusconfidential.wordpress.com/2021/02/21/silver-is-suppressed-why/ ] Also, the LBMA/CME gold market is relatively small, and cannot accept the hundreds of billions in US assets that China should liquidate. Likewise, for China to park hundreds of billions in the western gold market (cartel) will result in the same exposure to sanctions and seizure that China wishes to avoid.
Another option is for China to liquidate its US assets into the SGE Shanghai Gold Exchange to convert US dollar assets to hard gold, that may be held by China’s central bank. Unfortunately such action would likely cause the RMB/yuan to strengthen significantly, a situation China hopes to avoid.
So what about bitcoin? Contrary to popular belief, bitcoin is not the anonymous or secure repository that many believe it to be. Bitcoin has great exposure to US federal authorities and their whims, with zero accountability. [Well… crypto has accountability to the FBI and CIA! See: https://novusconfidential.wordpress.com/2023/03/16/cias-bitcoin-heist-originally-posted-4-sep-2021/ Also refer to the FBI and Colonial Pipeline fraud, FTX, and multiple crypto exchange failures, etc. ] Beside that, western iterations of the crypto market are essentially unlawful to access from China, oops.
So where else could China liquidate its western asset billions to? Instead of converting to yuan/RMB — China hopes to maintain the yuan/RMB at present levels — China is already investing in Africa, the Middle East, Russia, Iran, and Belarus. The UAE, Saudi, and perhaps Libya and Algeria? — may provide other avenues for China’s industry to liquidate US dollars to, that would otherwise potentially be exposed to US sanctions if kept in US assets.
But as written, the US dollar market is designed to trade in trillions, and no other market does that. Such trade, in itself, ie the rate at which the collective west creates debt, exposes the western monetary system itself to issues in the banking system that have appeared now after a decade+ of QE and negative real rates. To China’s advantage, China may exacerbate this western financial debt crisis and further weaken the US monetary system, by divesting itself of US debt.
If and when China disposes of US dollar assets, the Federal Reserve and western banking system will find itself under pressure. China may leverage that pressure and retaliate versus the western monetary system by liquidating China-held US dollar billions, as noted above, by selling US dollars and dollar assets. By that means China can weaken the US dollar, but again, China does not wish the yuan/RMB exchange rate to rise versus the dollar. But based upon the psychotic behavior of the collective west that is manically out of control — acting more like a rabid mad dog than a diplomatic political entity — China must do so.
Briefly, the US dollar has zero value, other than the trust placed in it. When that trust is lost – as it is being lost now – the dollar must eventually fail. China is certainly aware, and aware that the growing lack of trust in the US dollar is a state of affairs that the west has imposed upon itself …imposed upon itself by historic sanctions, by hubris, by arrogance, and via imperial aggression and belligerence.
Ultimately, the issue is that criminal western banks and their henchmen (and women) who fund and supply us in the west with what we call political “leaders”, will punish us all for their failure, and for the loss of their imperial wars. Western “leaders” with their predilection for war, destruction, and undemocratic, totalitarian authoritarian rule have gained the notice of the rest of the world. When western banks fail – as one day they must – we will all bear the consequence regarding western hegemonic power gone wrong, wrought over a period of many decades.
*Credit Suisse a notable example
Steve Brown
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UK
Not good for the uK: inflation unexpectedly re surges in February. And it will continue to rise as we witnessed a huge increase in the UK’s money supply
(zerohedge)
BoE ‘Pause’ Is Dead As UK Inflation Unexpectedly Re-Surges In Feb
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 08:12 AM
UK inflation measures unexpectedly re-surged across the board this morning after three straight months of deceleration, all much hotter than expected:
In context, these inflation rates are still near 40 year highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman notes that the largest upward contributions to the increase in CPI inflation came from restaurant and hotels (+0.2pp) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.15pp), where annual inflation rates at 12.1%yoy and 18.0%yoy, respectively, are at their highest since 1991. The largest offsetting downward contribution to the change in the annual rate came from recreation and culture (-0.11pp).
However, the breadth of the price increases was more shocking…
Given the MPC’s focus on domestic inflationary pressures, this print is especially notable since it showed the contribution from services to CPI inflation increasing to 3.1pp in February (from 2.8pp in January), above the BoE’s projection of 2.9pp. At the same time, headline inflation at 10.4%yoy was also 0.5pp above the BoE’s projection.
Goldman updated their UK inflation forecast and now expect core and headline inflation to be 4.0% yoy and 2.7% yoy, respectively, in December 2023.
Given today’s upside surprise, hopes for a ‘pause’ from the Bank of England tomorrow have been erased with a 25bps hike now fully priced-in…
Cable rallied on the print and gilt yields soared.
end
GERMANY/NATO/TURKEY/HUNGARY
Certainly the German newspaper is correct on Turkey. Not so sure on Hungary.
(Cody, Remix)
NATO Shouldn’t Trust Hungary And Turkey, Claims German Newspaper Die Welt
Hungary is “authoritarian” and NATO should consider withholding sensitive information from Turkey and Hungary, Die Welt foreign policy commentator Clemens Wergin writes
German newspaper Die Welt claims in an opinion piece that Turkey and Hungary should not be trusted within the NATO alliance. The paper writes that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to block Sweden’s NATO accession, and Hungary wants EU money in exchange for approving the membership of both nations.
The author of the piece, Clemens Wergin, also claims that both nations have developed “unseemly” ties to Russia and then asks whether NATO should even share sensitive data with both countries.
“And in their turn toward authoritarianism, Ankara and Budapest have also distanced themselves significantly from the community of values for which NATO stands. The alliance is therefore well advised to treat both as partners with reservation. This should include, for example, no longer necessarily sharing certain sensitive data with Turkey and Hungary within NATO,” Wergin writes.
When Wergin, the chief foreign policy correspondent for Die Welt, refers to “authoritarianism,” he makes no mention of the fact that French President Emmanuel Macron is facing mass protests in his country after ramming through pension reform without even a vote in parliament, or that he then banned protests in certain areas of Paris following the decree. In Germany itself, the current government is looking to ban one of the country’s top opposition parties, Alternative for Germany (AfD), even as the party soars in popularity. Such an authoritarian move would be met with an outcry from Brussels and Berlin if Orbán were to even consider banning opposition parties in Hungary.
Regarding the “blackmail” Wergin claims Hungary is subjecting NATO to, it should be noted that the EU first “blackmailed” Hungary, demanding the country make rule-of-law changes in order to unlock billions in EU funds. Arguably, the Hungarian government has more of a democratic mandate than the German government, with Orbán’s Fidesz party receiving such high levels of support that it resulted in yet another landslide victory last year and a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Wergin argues that Finland is likely to join NATO soon, as Erdoğan has given up his opposition to that country’s NATO membership. That means Finland is likely to join NATO without Sweden. He posits that this is because the Turkish decision is putting considerable pressure on the Hungarian government, which is also blocking membership, to agree to at least Finnish membership as well.
“As a result, it has now become more likely that at least Finland, which is particularly vulnerable due to its long land border with Russia, will be able to join NATO in the near future. Sweden, on the other hand, will probably have to wait at least until after the elections in Turkey. Northeastern Europe would thus become an area of divided security for the time being, with the Finns inside the NATO umbrella and the Swedes on the outside,” he argues.
He continues by writing that both states had turned the Nordic countries’ urgent application for membership, triggered by the Russian war, into a “farce” and prevented admission for extraneous reasons. Erdoğan wanted Sweden to impose a tougher policy on Turkish opposition groups and had also been outraged by an anti-Islam action by right-wing provocateur Rasmus Paulson, who had burned a Quran in Stockholm. He claims Paulson was funded by Russia but offers no evidence in support of his claim.
On his recent trip to Turkey, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán repeated his country’s stance for immediate peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, saying that Europe was suffering from “war psychosis,” with the continent drifting further into war day by day.
END
GERMANY//FRANCE
Germany and France are now bracing for major strikes. France is burning as Macron is our new “Nero”
(zerohedge)
European Spring? Germany Braces For Major Strikes While France Burns
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The “winter of discontent” that has been sweeping across Europe has now escalated into a “spring of discontent,” with strikes and protests set to spread from France, Greece, and other surrounding countries to Germany.
According to Reuters, Germany’s Verdi union and the railway and transport union EVG are preparing to unleash paralyzing strikes on the country’s airports and railways next Monday.
Verdi is negotiating for 2.5 million public sector workers, including ones at airports and other public transport hubs. The union has demanded higher wages due to persistent inflation pressures. EVG is negotiating for 230,000 employees at railway company Deutsche Bahn and bus companies.
Meanwhile, a recession looms for Europe’s largest economy, which finds itself in the midst of an inflationary crisis. After experiencing a 0.4% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, it’s anticipated that the economy will once again contract in the first quarter.
“German economic activity will probably fall again in the current quarter,” the Bundesbank said. “However, the decline is likely to be less than in the final quarter of 2022.”
Two consecutive quarters of negative growth indicate recession and come as inflation weighs heavily on consumption. The combination of the two crushes living standards and is sparking a wave of discontent.
While Germany braces for strikes and protests next week, France, Europe’s third-largest economy, is already burning as President Emmanuel Macron rammed through unpopular pension reform.
With growing instability in Western nations and the threat of a broadening banking crisis, the primary concern is whether NATO is adequately equipped to handle future conflicts.
END
POLAND/RUSSIA
What a riot! Poland is still doing 4.7 billion euros’ worth of business with Russia and becomes its third biggest EU exporter to Russia.
(Cody/Remixnews)
What War? Poland Still Doing €4.7 Billion In Business With Russia And Is Third-Biggest Exporter To Russia In Europe
Despite Poland’s hawkish war stance and criticism of Hungary’s position on the war, Polish exports worth billions continue flowing into Russia…
Poland has long criticized Hungary for its neutrality in the war in Ukraine and its calls to end sanctions on Russia, but despite the Polish government’s tough rhetoric, billions in exports continue to flow from Poland to Russia
Data from Eurostat shows that Polish exports to Russia fell sharply in the first half of 2022, only to begin to rise again in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Poland exported €1.2 billion worth of goods to Russia. Although this represented a fall of 44 percent over 2021, it was a marked improvement on the second and third quarters of the year, according to Polish news outlet Forsal.
After initially falling to €300 million in March and €200 million in April, exports to Russia are recovering and are now regularly above €300 million per month.
The total value of Polish exports to Russia for 2022 was €4.7 billion. That means that Poland was the third-biggest EU exporter to Russia. Only Germany and Italy exported more.
Polish exports to Russia are dominated by industrial products, which accounted for almost €830 million. The second-largest contributor was synthetic fibers (€371 million), and in third place came pharmaceuticals with sales worth €353 million, an actual increase of 18 percent over 2021. Footwear also saw a rise in exports to Russia.
The value of imports from Russia, on the other hand, was down significantly, falling 61 percent compared to 2021 when energy accounted for the bulk of imports; the decline came despite the rise in energy prices. As a result, Poland fell to seventh from second place in the EU with regard to the volume of imports from Russia. Hungary has moved in the other direction, climbing from 13th to 3rd place as a result of a 194 percent increase in imports from Russia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has refused to send weapons to Ukraine or allow weapon transports through his territory, stressing that Hungary wants no part in the war. The country’s government has called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations. In addition, Orbán has argued on numerous occasions that sanctions against Russia are harming Europeans more than Russians and that sanctions should be dropped by the end of the year, a stance that likely led to Orbán landing on a Ukrainian “kill list” and earning the scorn of war hawks in Poland.
Poland’s leader, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, has gone so far as to say the alliance between Hungary and Poland is over.
Orbán said in August of 2022 that the goals of both Poland and Hungary are the same “but the problem is of the heart,” claiming that Hungarians see the conflict in Ukraine as a war between two Slavic nations, whereas Poles “feel that they are also fighting in it.”
“I confirm the words of PM Orbán, that
5.RUSSIA//UKRAINE//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
//MIDDLE EAST/USA
ROBERT H.
IMPORTANT…
The Age Of The U.S. As A Middle East Power Broker Is Over | OilPrice.com
The reality is America is toast as a hegemony power in the Middle East. They blew it. Soon they will be physically kicked out of Syria. Even Israel is changing as there is no gain as the sole American outpost in a region where such influence is not wanted. With this the end of the so-called PetroDollar is ending.
Fwd: UK Laughs Off Russian Threat, Says it Will Provide Ukraine With Depleted Uranium Shells
Beyond dumb, and shows a total disregard for life. One should ask doctors in Iraq about deformed babies from all the pollution from such shells. Or speak to the parents who suffered as a result. Ukrainians as well as Russians but especially Ukrainians will live with this curse for centuries. And who will want to buy crops grown which will be contaminated?
Sad time for those poor folks who have no idea of what will result.
A British Army Challenger 2 Main Battle Tank seen in Estonia (UK MoD)NOTE TO READERS: Consider subscribing to The Trends Journal weekly magazine for trend forecasts and news analysis you won’t find anywhere else and support independent journalism. TrendsJournal.com.
The UK laughed off Russia’s latest threat after announcing that it will provide Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks along with its shells made with armor-piercing depleted uranium.Russian President Vladimir Putin called the decision to provide Ukraine with the technology is escalatory because the munitions contain “nuclear components.”He said if the transfer these DU munitions take place, “Russia will be forced to react accordingly, bearing in mind that the collective West has already started to use weapons with a nuclear component,” RT.com,
the Russian outlet, reported.Britain insisted that depleted uranium “is a standard component and has nothing to do with nuclear weapons.””The British Army has used depleted uranium in its armor piercing shells for decades,” the Ministry of Defense said, according to the BBC. “Russia knows this, but is deliberately trying to disinform. Independent research by scientists from groups such as the Royal Society has assessed that any impact to personal health and the environment from the use of depleted uranium munitions is likely to be low.”Sergey Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, also said, the world is another step closer to a nuclear disaster, RT reported.“Another step has been taken, and there are fewer and fewer left,” he said.FAST FACT: (Depleted uranium is a dense metal produced as a by-product of enrichment of natural uranium for nuclear fuel. It is still radioactive, but at a much lower level than the starting material. It is used in armour-piercing shells and bombs, to give them more penetrating power. Such munitions were used in both Gulf Wars and in Serbia and Kosovo. Their use has raised concerns about health threats from exposure to the distributed uranium. Many studies have reported a lack of evidence of hazard, but their results remain controversial.- source: Ec.Europa.eu)The BBC reported that the U.S. announced Tuesday that it will not be sending any munitions with depleted uranium to Ukraine.
MFA Russia @mfa_russia Sergey #Lavrov: If this is true [that the British will supply #Ukraine with depleted uranium shells], then they are prepared to not just take risks, but to violate international and humanitarian law. This will end badly for them. Read in full: is.gd/DOZn356:28 PM ∙ Mar 21, 2023605Likes284RetweetsThe U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs informed members who may have been exposed that “recent research shows there may be an association between elevated urine uranium in these Veterans and lower bone mineral density (BMD). The BMD results require further study to determine if they persist over time and researchers and clinicians continue to monitor the health of these Veterans.”ENDROBERT H TO US: EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UKB. Putin & S. Shoigu threaten Britain with holocaust: Use of depleted uranium will be perceived as a nuclear attack against Russia! (vid) – WarNews247This is really nuts.Did the world not learn anything from the use of such ammunition in Iraq? Children and their parents suffer today and every day from such wanton use of ammunition that pollutes for decades. What kind of mentality is so callous as to do this. Neighboring countries will be affected by the winds that will blow dust and the soil will be polluted rendering anything grown there as poison. What happened to empathy for one’s fellow man? Have we become so callous as to cause untold death in a blind attempt for hegemony. Why is not the use of depleted uranium ammunition not a war crime? This type of action renders the Security Council as irrelevant for all to see. A sad day for British leadership has arrived changing perception of a standard bearer tainted by such action. It seems they are captured just like DC by Neocons as neither ordinary Americans or Brits are oriented this way. And as this occurs, the other day France received delivery of enriched uranium for their nuclear plants from Russia. One imagines the French pay lip service to European sanctions on Russia or has reality trumped insanity of sanctions that do not work? None of this craziness is necessary and it will end poorly for the Western world. This flawed Neocon agenda has pushed China and Russia into a united block against the West. Just look at the recent meeting and the sheer scope and size of trade deals agreed to. Even now China is reducing the level of goods it buys from America and is dumping their holdings of US debt at a time when the ship of fools spends money like a drunken sailor. And you wonder why there is banking crisis? We have seen nothing yet with this horribly flawed Neocon race for death.
Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals (high confidence).
Observed Changes
Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence).
Current Mitigation Progress, Gaps and Challenges
Policies and laws addressing mitigation have consistently expanded since AR5. Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions. (high confidence)
Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards (high confidence).
Likelihood and Risks of Unavoidable, Irreversible or Abrupt Changes
Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The likelihood of abrupt and/or irreversible changes increases with higher global warming levels. Similarly, the probability of low-likelihood outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse impacts increases with higher global warming levels. (high confidence)
Adaptation Limits
Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.
[Mish Comment: At that point there is high confidence that we all die.]
Overshoot: Exceeding a Warming Level and Returning
If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot. (high confidence)
[Mish Comment: Damn. I was hoping that once we concluded that everyone would die we would throw up our hands and accept fate, but no such luck. To keep the fearmongering perpetually alive, it seems we can come back from the brink of extinction via additional measures.]
Urgency of Near-Term Integrated Climate Action
Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health (very high confidence). There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all (very high confidence). Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies (high confidence). The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).
[Mish Comment: Wait a second. Can we come back from this or not? I note “very high confidence” that the window of a livable future is rapidly closing.]
Expect More Extremes
Rapidly Narrowing Window
How Much Will It Cost?
A few years ago, the estimate was $98 trillion. Now it’s $131 Trillion. In a few years it will be $200 trillion.
Of course, all government estimates overstate the benefits and understate the costs, typically by a factor of 5 to 10.
So figure the cost would be $1,000 trillion to $2,000 trillion or so.
Annual CO2 Emissions
Absolutely Brilliant Speech by British Satirist, Konstantine Kisin
Is Kisin’s Video For You?
If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will do anything that matters about climate change, the video is for you.
If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will not do anything that matters about climate change, the video is also for you.
Play the video then think about the path of China and India while noting the whole continent of Africa is not even on the scale.
Note that the population of India will soon to surpass China. What happens when India tries to improve the standard of living for all its citizens?
Climate Deniers
I have been accused of being a climate denier. Mercy. Actually, I am a climate realist.
Climate change is real and constant and has been ever since the earth formed.
The debate is over how much is manmade and even more importantly, what to do about it, whether it’s manmade or not.
Regarding what percentage is manmade, I don’t know, nor does anyone else. But let’s say you disagree.
Then OK, I agree with you. Let’s assume recent climate change is 100% manmade. So what do we do about it?
That has been my line of questioning for a long time. I just have never been able to express my line of thinking as clearly as Kisin in the above video.
A Big Green Mess in Germany With Coal a Stunning 31 Percent of Electricity
Assume there is a problem, then if there is a solution, it will not be the like of Gretta, AOC, Al Gore, president Biden, or the Green Party hypocrites who will fix it.
Look no further than the Big Green Mess in Germany for what happens when politicians are faced with the decision to heat homes cheaply or cut back on CO2.
The EU plans to tax other nations for not addressing climate change, while Germany bulldozes a town to increase the size of a coal mine. It’s also lignite coal, the dirtiest kind.
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, a Green who is Germany’s economy and climate minister, defended the agreement as “a good decision for climate protection” that fulfills many of the environmentalists’ demands and saves five other villages from demolition.
Meanwhile, the US is marching down an idiotic path towards electric vehicle mandates with no plan on where to get the minerals for the batteries. Nor does president Biden have an reasonable plan for the infrastructure needed.
Fed Chair Warns President Biden “We will not be a climate policymaker”
“Without explicit congressional legislation, it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy or supervisory tools to promote a greener economy or to achieve other climate-based goals. We are not, and will not be, a climate policymaker,” said Jerome Powell.
I am not one who often praises the Fed, but that paragraph deserves a standing ovation.
Yeah right. Politicians are going to give Africa, India, and third world countries trillions of dollars and tax the hell out of them if they don’t comply.
The Hope of Fusion vs the Pomp of Politicians and Climate Activists
If there is a climate problem, science will find the answer, not politicians or activists.
Candida auris is a rare fungal disease that is easily spread through contact with contaminated surfaces or from person-to-person and can cause severe illness in hospitalized patients and those with weakened immune systems, according to health officials.
In some rare cases, the yeast can enter the bloodstream of patients and spread throughout the body, causing serious invasive candidiasis infections, which can affect the blood, heart, brain, eyes, bones, and other parts of the body and can prove fatal.
Data from a limited number of patents shows that 30 to 60 percent of people diagnosed with the fungal disease have died. However, healthy people typically do not get sick from the fungal disease.
The CDC said it is concerned about Candida auris for three main reasons: it is often multidrug-resistant, it is hard to identify using standard laboratory methods, and it has rapidly caused outbreaks in health care settings.
Additionally, individuals who have been hospitalized in health care facilities for long periods of time—especially those who have breathing tubes, feeding tubes, and central venous catheters going into their bodies—appear to be at the highest risk of contracting Candida auris.
Other risk factors are generally similar to risk factors for other types of Candida infections and include recent surgery, diabetes, and recent use of antibiotics or antifungal medications, initial data shows.
CDC Data Shows Rise in Cases
Infections of Candida auris, also referred to as C. auris, have been found in patients of all ages, from preterm infants to the elderly, health officials say.
According to CDC data, the drug-resistant fungus, which was first detected in the United States in 2016, has been spreading “at an alarming rate” among hospitalized patients in recent years, with clinical cases of the fungus nearly doubling in 2021 and continuing to rise in 2022.
There were at least 2,377 confirmed clinical cases of Candida auris in the United States in 2022, according to CDC statistics, up from 1,474 cases in 2021 and 757 cases in 2020.
Data shows the fungal disease is now present in more than half of U.S. states.
Separate data from the CDC published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on March 20 also found that screening cases—in which the fungus is detected but is not causing infection—tripled from 2020 to 2021, from 1,310 to 4,041 cases.
The CDC has said it is concerned with the tripling in 2021 of the number of cases that were resistant to echinocandins, antifungal drugs that are typically the first line of treatment for Candida auris.
CDC officials said in a press release that the number of Candida auris cases may have risen for multiple reasons, including poor general infection prevention and control practices in health care facilities, although enhanced efforts to detect cases may have also contributed to the rise.
“The timing of this increase and findings from public health investigations suggest C. auris spread may have worsened due to strain on healthcare and public health systems during the COVID-19 pandemic,” CDC officials added.
Read more here.
From Robert H
My goodness, we have a new business on this:
Jung on Twitter: “Sperm has been almost entirely replaced by spike proteins https://t.co/vJS8CcQBUB” / Twitter
And you wonder why Sperm prices from unvaccinated men is rising?
The Spike Protein, Rapid Aging and ROS: Finding the Etiology for COVID, Long COVID and Post-COVID Conditions
This explains a bunch. Anyone who got a jab who did not use Ivermectin or NAC etc to detox likely is aging at accelerated rate. Explains why so many people known are aging much quicker than imagined. From weaker hearts to teeth issues with age likely all such conditions are increasing. One imagines that once one looks in the mirror and realizes accelerated aging that anyone or anything that can cause reverse aging if only in appearance will be in demand as a new growth industry from cosmetics to botox to many other things like bio feedback etc. Vanity always sells.
They know they killed people for they authorized the kill shot, the ‘slow kill’ COVID mRNA bioweapon, MP @ABridgen, IMO, these members of parliament are sniveling pusillanimous criminals
the brother schooled these dimwits, these illogical absurd specious nonsensical idiots well! just about right! Clay Travis gets it & before you go get the vapors how I wrote that, the jab is deadly
California Farmers: “We’ve Lost EVERYTHING” – $BILLIONS of Food Lost in Floods in State that Produces Half of America’s Agriculture
March 21, 2023 5:51 pm
Almost half of America’s agriculture is produced in the State of California, producing over 50 $BILLION annually in revenues. Now, with recent historical and unprecedented flooding, many farmers in California are reporting that they have “lost everything.” And it is not over yet, as the rains continue, and record amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains still need to melt, which will flow into farmlands that are already devastated in California’s Central Valley. The emphasis today is still on saving people’s lives as the rain and flooding continue, and nobody knows yet what the final damages will be to America’s richest farmlands and how that will impact food security in the United States, and the nation’s already fragile economy. I have put together a video report that is just under 15 minutes. I have friends and family members who live in this area of California, so I can confirm from first hand experiences that none of this is exaggerated. It is real. This was a very emotional video for me to compile.
“An Extraordinary Change”: Labor Data Reveals Shocking Drop In Workplace Attendance Following COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign
March 21, 2023 7:03 pm
Last we heard from former Blackrock portfolio manager Ed Dowd and his deep-dive partners at Phinance Technologies, the rate of Serious Adverse Events reported during Covid-19 vaccine trials closely tracked a spike in disabilities reported following the vaccine’s official rollout. In their latest analysis, Dowd and crew use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistcs (BLS) to reveal a shocking spike in both employee absence and lost worktime rates, which they believe is due to vaccines – either from primary vaccine injuries, or because of weakened immune systems due to the jab, and not long covid caused by the virus itself.
Central Banks are out of Ammo with no Choice but to let their Currencies Burn
March 21, 2023 8:27 pm
At the beginning of last week, everyone expected central banks to “tighten until something breaks”. By the end of the week it was clear that they’d already broken everything. Two middling US banks imploded, European mega-bank Credit Suisse finally died a well-justified death, and “who’s next?” speculation ran wild. And just like that, the era of tight money ended. The piecemeal, fingers-in-the-dike character of this response can be explained in one of two ways: Either the morons running the global financial system were completely blindsided because they actually thought rising interest rates and a falling money supply would slow inflation without unintended consequences, despite a century of contrary experience. Or the evil geniuses running the global financial system have engineered a multi-faceted crisis as an excuse to assume total control. Banks were already tightening credit standards before last week’s flash crisis. Now virtually all of them will stop lending to any but their strongest clients. The number of underwater car loans, where the loan balance exceeds the value of the car, has been rising for months. Commercial real estate was toast in any event, but now it’s burnt toast.
A must read!! Michael Every on the most important topics of the day
(Michael Every)
There Doesn’t Appear To Be A Good Option
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 09:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
It was another wild day yesterday in markets. Very strong US housing data allayed fears of immediate recession, but then raised them that the Fed might keep hiking even as credit conditions turn. So, as our current global financial crisis, which is still not a Global Financial Crisis, rumbles on, all focus is now on the FOMC, in its biggest meeting for many years.
Imagine they don’t hike. On one hand – phew! On the other, markets could be spooked that a Fed set to do 50bps weeks ago is suddenly not willing to focus on its inflation mandate.
Imagine they hike 50bps. Panic. Chaos. Tears before bedtime.
Imagine they hike 25bps and are hawkish, with a shift higher in the dot plot in some form. A slightly milder version of the above would ensure.
Imagine they hike 25bps and are dovish, or say they are done. Commodities and risk assets will likely soar. But inflation will still be there unless there really is a credit crunch looming after this liquidity pinch.
In short, there doesn’t appear to be a good option (ZH; or as we said two days ago, ‘”Whatever The Fed Does On Wednesday Will Be A Mistake“) Moreover, as often repeated here, the Fed trade-off is not just about inflation vs. financial stability. Whether the players involved today see it or not, it’s also about the global role of the US dollar, which Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday pledged was something that needed to be zealously guarded. (Although she meant it more in terms of a financialized US economy seeing constant capital inflows from countries running structural excess savings, to little benefit to the US ex. Wall Street.)
The FOMC meeting coincides with the wrap-up of Xi and Putin doing the same and agreeing:
A peace plan Russia accepted, because it cements current gains, and the West rejected;
An invite for ICC-indicted Putin to visit Beijing;
A declaration that both sides will “provide strong mutual support in defending each other’s fundamental interests, above all sovereignty, territorial integrity, security, and development”, which sounds like an alliance; and
Putin floating Russian trade with EM and China now be cleared in CNY.
This is not a workable ‘Bretton Woods 3’, a concept that will now drift on longer than the bank that sold the idea to markets. I already rebutted that Russia can clear its oil and food —which Putin suggested he might give away free to Africa(!)– in CNY if it wants. Pricing of commodities will remain in US dollars, and the trade cleared will just be netted out in CNY, which nobody opts to hold for structural reasons of China’s choosing. All the big trade deficits in the West are the ultimate balance that has to clear, and can’t be in CNY – though Russia’s economy will. Sorry, Lebanon, Egypt, Kenya, etc., with your US dollar shortages, with no Fed swaplines so far. No easy dollar alternatives for you as well as no easy dollars. Yet, if the Fed were to pivot, it would throw fuel on the ‘BW3’ fire, boosting calls for a shift from fiat dollars to commodity currencies that ‘hold their value’.
Then again, it isn’t all about which money you can digitally print in a crisis. Russia is helping Egypt build nuclear power stations, swinging another strategic economy (Suez Canal, anyone?) potentially back into its orbit. Lots of that kind of thing is happening all over.
For a strident view on the Putin-Xi meeting and its broader implications, @samagreene, professor at the Russia Institute at King’s College London, notes:
“…China’s domination of Russia is complete. Xi praised Putin, touted strong relations with Russia, unity in the UNSC, and promised coordination on IT and natural resources trade. And that’s it. Putin, by contrast, was almost obscenely generous – and not just with his praise…. He pledged completion of the Strength of Siberia 2 pipeline… [which] replaces structural dependence on Europe with structural dependence on China, at a time when Russia is a price taker for hydrocarbons. That’s a strategic win for China.
Further, Putin announced a reorientation of agricultural trade towards China and a strategic role for China in developing Russia’s far east and high north – a move Putin’s own security apparatus has long resisted (for obvious reasons). Again, strategic wins for China… And Russia offered Chinese companies first dibs on the assets of departing Western companies – again strengthening China’s presence in Russia, with no reciprocal strengthening of Russia’s presence in China…
While there were undoubtedly agreements we are not meant to know about, there is no indication here of a significant increase in military support for Russia – nor even of a willingness on Xi’s part to ramp up diplomatic support. A swing and a miss for Putin…
Putin greeted Xi with a rhetorical bear hug. Xi gave Putin a pat on the head and told him to run along now and play… Putin tells his people he’s fighting for Russia’s sovereignty. In truth, he’s mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing. The question now is one for Xi: What will he do with his newest acquisition?”
That leaves the EU facing a two-for-one in Russia and China, and as Politico notes, ‘Europe’s China policy will shape transatlantic relations’. The implication is large German firms lean on the large German government, “putting Europe’s priorities on a likely collision course with US strategic goals, which will focus on confronting China in economic, military and, increasingly, ideological domains.”
“So I’m in love with the Cold War. I’m in favour of the Cold War. The Cold War is not only a good thing – it’s a necessary thing, because we have to uphold…the terms of the way we share the planet…. You know, I hear a lot of people saying, “Oh my God, no Cold War with China. God forbid we should have a Cold War with China.” And I think to myself, “What world do these people live in?” First, we’re already in a Cold War with China, because China started that long before we understood that that’s what they were doing. And secondly, would you prefer a hot war? The alternative to Cold War is capitulation– which you can imagine I’m not in favour of– or hot war.”
A bifurcating world like this only complicates real economy investment decisions, supply chain issues, and monetary policy decisions.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0794 UP .0022
USA/ YEN 132.86 UP 0.459/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2285 UP 0.0059
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3703 DOWN .0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 10.59 PTS OR 0.31%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 332.67 PTS OR 1.73%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .82% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 332.67 PTS OR 1.73%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.59 PTS OR 0.31%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.82%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 552.94 PTS OR 1.93%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1942.90
silver:$22.43
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102,70 DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8839)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8793
TURKISH LIRA: 19.04 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.327…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.613% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.737 UP 1 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.221 UP 5 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 102.80 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your 10 30 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 26.56 PTS OR 0.35%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 79.31POINTS OR 0.52%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 35.25 PTS OR 0.50%
Spain IBEX UP 8.40 POINTS OR 0.09%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 93,58 PTS OR 0.35%
WTI Oil price 69.41 12: EST
Brent Oil: 74.97 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWNTO: 76.99/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 13/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3690
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.513 UP 14 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0765 UP 0.0047 OR 47 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2213 DOWN .0059 or 59 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.387% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.51 UP 1.11////YEN DOWN 111 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3714 UP .0041 (CDN dollar, DOWN 41 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.50
Brent OIL: 75.26
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS pts to 3.592%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 3.743%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 22 PTS AT 4.1791%
USA dollar index: 102.88 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.03
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.66 UP 0 AND 51/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 316.02 PTS OR 0.98%
NASDAQ 100 UP 178,83 PTS OR 1.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.55 DOWN 2.60 PTS (10.77)%
GLD: $180.37 DOWN 3.47 OR 1.89%
SLV/ $20.54 DOWN 0.15 OR 0.72%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
First Republic shares plunge after hours as their restructuring plans fizzles
(zerohedge)
First Republic Shares Plunge After-Hours As Restructuring Plans Fizzle
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 07:02 PM
At one point today, First Republic Bank (FRC) shares were up over 50% (based on the narrative that Yellen said the Biden admin was prepared to offer more support to banks).
That is no longer the case as most of those gains have been erased following a number of reports late in the day on the state of the bank’s restructuring efforts, as no buyer has emerged.
While investors have reportedly expressed interest in helping, the firm’s unrealized losses have been a sticking point, and The Wall Street Journal reports that FRC is adding Lazard and McKinsey to help review strategic options alongside JPMorgan, which had already been hired to advise on moves the bank could make to regain its footing.
The addition of Lazard and McKinsey underscores what a complicated situation First Republic is in – one that defies an easy fix.
Finding a willing buyer for the bank, whose customers had withdrawn some $70 billion since Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse (and has been downgraded deeper into junk), selling stock at these depressed levels and other alternatives all face their own substantial hurdles.
Additionally, Bloomberg reports that US officials are exploring the possibility of government backing to encourage a deal that would shore up the lender, people with knowledge of the situation said.
Among options being discussed, the government could play a role in lifting assets out of First Republic that have eroded its balance sheet.
Additional ideas have included offering liability protection, applying capital rules more flexibly or easing limits on ownership stakes, the people said.
Finally, we note that the bank itself issued a statement to its clients late in the day:
To Our Valued Clients,
The events of the past two weeks have been unprecedented, and we want to take a moment to provide an update.
Our commitment to client service is unchanged, and we remain well-positioned to continue to manage deposit activity. Today, as every day, we are processing transactions, opening accounts, funding loans, answering questions, and serving clients’ overall banking and wealth management needs.
We are grateful for your ongoing advocacy for the value of our relationship-based, exceptional service. We keep hearing from you, and the overwhelming theme is this: “We love our bank.” We want to extend our sincerest thanks for your continued and unwavering support.
If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your banker or wealth manager.
“processing transactions” and “opening accounts”?
As S&P Global warned on Sunday, last week’s deposit infusion may not be enough to overcome the bank’s “substantial business, liquidity, funding, and profitability challenges.”
end
PacWest now in trouble after abandoning a capital raise. It seems that nobody wants to invest in banking shares
(zerohedge)
PacWest Bank Tumbles After Abandoning Capital Raise
WEDNESDAY, MAR 22, 2023 – 09:05 AM
While all eyes have been distracted by First Republic Bank’s efforts to re-capitalize, it appears Pacific West Bank (PacWest) has also been trying to raise capital.
The bank issued an update this morning confirming that it is abandoning its plans for a capital raise:
In addition to these liquidity-enhancing measures, and as part of its proactive approach to capital and liquidity management, the Company has explored a capital raise with potential investors.
In light of the current volatility in the market and depressed market prices for regional bank stocks, as well as the availability of other options to enhance capital, the Company determined it would not be prudent to move forward with a transaction at this time.
This decision reflects the Company’s confidence in its financial strength and commitment to ensuring the long-term stability and profitability of the institution
The bank announced that is has drawn on available federal facilities,including:
$3.7 billion of borrowings from the FHLB,
$10.5 billion of borrowings from the Federal Reserve Discount Window, and
$2.1 billion in Bank Term Funding Program borrowings, in each case as of March 20, 2023.
Additionally, the bank securitized some assets to raise some cash…
The Bank has seen validation from the private sector as well, having secured $1.4 billion in fully funded cash proceeds from ATLAS SP Partners through a new senior asset-backed financing facility, which unlocked liquidity from unencumbered, high-quality assets in an expeditious manner.
As a reminder, the bailout BTFP has very limited collateral (that can be used), and so PacWest’s decision to securitize ‘other’ assets suggests they did not have enough high-quality, eligible securities to grab more of that easy money from The Fed.
PACW is down over 10% in the pre-market…
The bank stated that it has over $11.4 billion in available cash as of March 20, 2023, which exceeds total uninsured deposits of $9.5 billion as of March 20, 2023.
“I am proud of the efforts the entire PacWest team has taken in these challenging times to enhance our liquidity and preserve franchise value,” said Paul W. Taylor, Pacific Western Bank President and CEO.
“We have remained steadfast in our commitment to our customers and our communities, and we are grateful for their support and loyalty. As we look ahead, we have continued confidence in the strength of PacWest and are encouraged by the stability we have seen in our deposits and liquidity over the past week. Additionally, we continue to be encouraged by the clear message from government officials, regulatory agencies, and industry leaders, including Secretary Yellen’s recent remarks regarding the protection of smaller bank depositors. We look forward to continuing to sharpen our strategic focus, bolster our balance sheet, and be a proven partner to our customers.”
The bank also admitted that it has seen 20% of deposit outflows since the start of the year…
That expensive capital raise may be more prudent soon.
end
Peter Tchir is very accurate as to what Powell should do today.
I will respond tomorrow as to what really will happen at 2 pm today.
KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) seems perfectly American, while Too Clever by Half is quintessential British!
I think Powell needs to deliver one simple message:
There is zero chance that you will regret keeping your deposits at your existing bank.
I don’t really care how he does it, but that is the message that I’m looking for. He needs to reassure (or assure) everyone that the triumvirate of the Fed, FDIC and the Treasury have the tools, the power and the willingness to do this. Maybe he talks about various lending programs, or hints that implicit deposit guarantees are pretty much explicit once the FDIC gets control (as opposed to needing Congressional approval). Maybe he comes up with things I haven’t thought of. But for me, the most important aspect of today’s press conference will be how good of a job convincing the American public (not just the wonks on Wall Street) that they can (and even should) keep their deposits where they are.
The fact that there is minimal cost to moving deposits from one bank to the next is what nags at me, and why I think it is so important for Powell to focus on this.
My base case is that Powell will do the following:
Raise 25 bps to show he’s tough on inflation.
Inflation was dropping steadily for 6 months, picked up, but some of the latest data showed that was already slowing (the ADP, NFP and JOLTS all pointed to wage pressure alleviating). So why are we being tough on something where the fears may well be overblown other than we are fighting the last mistake, is beyond me. It was just in January that disinflation was the word of the day.
We have no idea what the impact to the economy, spending and inflation will be from two failed banks and this shift from deposits across the board to money market funds, but also to the shift in deposits from smaller institutions to the “too big to fail” banks.
I disagree with hiking 25 bps and focusing on inflation, but it is not a game killer for risk.
Data Dependent, follow the ECB’s lead on no forward guidance.
Whether he hikes 25 or pauses, this is what the market is really looking to hear on the rate front and should be positive for risk.
Outline how and why banks are safe for depositors.
I really think little else matters. How well he delivers on this will determine where stocks are by the end of the week.
If he gets caught up talking about mandates and addressing the Fed wonks on Wall Street, I think this ends badly for risk. If he looks America, mainstream media and even Twitter straight in the eye and delivers a clear and strong message on banks, then off to the races on risk!
Without a doubt 0DTE options will play a role in creating noise during the press conference, but also amplifying whatever direction the market decides to take when it is all said and done.
Basically, choose KISS over being Too Clever by Half!
These guys are in the used car sales business. After doing well during the pandemic are now faltering. They are trying to restructure their huge debt load. They might have a chance of surviving. Year end 2022 saw a massive loss of 350 million dollars.
(zero hedge)
Carvana Surges After Announcing Restructuring Which Would Shrink Debt By $1.3 Billion, Slash Interest By $100 Million
Carvana, one of the high-flying stocks during the post-covid lockdowns which came crashing down to earth almost as fast at is soared, is surging this morning, rising as much as 30% after the FT first reported, and the company then confirmed, that it was offering to exchange billions of bond principal at below-par prices as the struggling online car seller works to restructure its debt load.
The company is offering to swap five series of bonds, including its 5.625% unsecured notes due 2025 and 10.25% unsecured notes due 2030 for new secured notes due 2028 that pay 9% in cash or 12% in-kind, according to a statement Wednesday. The company would swap the existing bonds maturing between 2025 and 2030 for between 61.25 cents on the dollar and 80.875 cents on the dollar, depending on when they submit the notes. The early deadline for the swap, which offers the best terms for investors, is 5 p.m. on April 4 in New York. The bondholders would have a second priority claim, behind lender Ally Financial, on vehicle inventory and intellectual property including Carvana’s brand.
If successful, the company will restructure a substantial portion of its $9BN debt load as it attempts to stay afloat at a time of declining vehicle sales. If the offering is fully subscribed, the exchange offer to existing creditors would reduce the face value of its outstanding $5.7bn of unsecured bond debt by $1.3bn and its annual cash interest bill by roughly $100 million.
The exchange comes as Carvana deals with deeply distressed debt and plunging shares. The company’s stock soared during the pandemic as a chip shortage sent used car prices soaring, but Carvana’s outlook has since crashed, losing over 94% of its value since peaking in August 2021. It also posted a bigger-than-expected loss in February following its lowest retail unit sales in two years.
Carvana’s 10.25% bond due 2030 last changed hands at 53 cents on the dollar, according to Trace.
The Financial Times has previously reported that at least six prominent credit investment firms have joined forces to negotiate with Carvana. According to a person familiar with the situation, there has not been much interaction between the company and its bondholders. One prominent member of the group, Apollo Global Management, which had bought $800mn in bonds issued by Carvana in 2022 at par, would take a significant loss should it decide to participate in the restructuring.
Participation is voluntary and Carvana says that for the deal to close, at least $500mn of new debt will have to be issued. The kind of restructuring the company is proposing can often serve as a prelude to the renegotiation terms or an entirely different agreement.
Carvana released preliminary first-quarter results alongside the terms of the exchange, which showed that a cost-cutting plan — including a reduction in headcount from 21,000 to 17,000 over the past year — is starting to bear fruit as the company’s massive cash burn is starting to shrink, with EBITDA expected to come between ($50MM) and ($100MM), an improvement to the ($348MM) EBITDA one year ago. Some more details:
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect retail units sold to be between 76,000 and 79,000 units, compared to 105,185 retail units sold for the three months ended March 31, 2022. This reduction in retail units sold is primarily driven by higher interest rates, lower inventory size, lower advertising expense, and our focus on profitability initiatives.
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect total net sales and operating revenues to be between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion, compared to total net sales and operating revenues of $3.5 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The decrease in total net sales and operating revenues is primarily driven by the reduction in retail units sold.
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect gross profit, non-GAAP to be between $310 million and $350 million, compared to gross profit, non-GAAP of $314 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The change in gross profit, non-GAAP is primarily driven by higher total gross profit per retail unit sold offset by lower retail units sold.
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect total gross profit per unit, non-GAAP to be between $4,100 and $4,400, compared to total gross profit per unit, non-GAAP of $2,985 for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The increase in total gross profit per unit is due to higher retail gross profit per unit, primarily driven by the benefit of a lower inventory allowance adjustment, higher wholesale gross profit, primarily driven by strong wholesale market demand and price appreciation, and higher other gross profit, primarily driven by higher finance receivable, principal sold.
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect SG&A, non-GAAP to be between $400 million and $440 million, which excludes approximately $55 million of depreciation and amortization expense and $15 million of share-based compensation expense, compared to SG&A, non-GAAP of $662 million, which excludes $37 million of depreciation and amortization expense and $28 million of share-based compensation expense, for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The reduction in SG&A, non-GAAP is primarily driven by our continued focus on operating efficiency and reduced advertising spend.
For the three months ending March 31, 2023, we expect Adjusted EBITDA to be between $(50) million and $(100) million, compared to Adjusted EBITDA of $(348) million for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The improvement in Adjusted EBITDA is primarily driven by reduced selling, general, and administrative expenses and higher total gross profit per unit, partially offset by lower retail units sold.
Carvana’s market capitalization soared to nearly $50bn in 2021 after customers flush with stimulus cash flocked to its website and vending machines when a global chip shortage and supply chain problems had resulted in a dearth of new vehicles. It sold 425,000 cars that year, up from 245,000 in 2020.
The stock jumped as much as 30% this morning following news of the proposed exchange offer.
What crooks: insider loans to themselves exploded ahead of Silicon Valley bank’s collapse
(zerohedge)
SVB’s Loans To ‘Insiders’ Exploded Ahead Of Its Collapse
TUESDAY, MAR 21, 2023 – 06:25 PM
By now, we’ve all seen the losses that SVB faced on its unhedged book of Treasuries and MBS. We’ve all read about the gargantuan deposit run that occurred on the eve of its demise. We’ve all scratched the back of our heads at the percentage (and size) of uninsured depositors that were bailed out by the Biden administration.
We have also all seen the relatively huge amount of share-selling by insiders in the month leading up to the bank’s inevitable collapse.
But, this next chart is a doozy…
Courtesy of Bloomberg’s reporting, it appears that not only were insiders dumping their shares faster than syphilitic hooker, there were loading up on loans from the bank at a scale that makes a mockery of any regulatory oversight…
Yes, that’s real.
Loans to officers, directors and principal shareholders, and their related interests, more than tripled from the third quarter last year to $219 million in the final three months of 2022 – a record dollar amount of loans going back over 20 years.
Many questions come to mind – what were the terms, who were the recipients, what was the collateral?
But, sadly, we will likely never know.
However, we do note that the banking execs may be facing a serious shortfall (like their bank): if the loans were collateralized by SVB shares for example, those shares are now worthless, leaving the loan-heavy C-suite left to come up with the cash to repay the loans (and no, these loans don’t disappear with the bank’s liquidation).
While there is no evidence of wrongdoing, and no personal details of the loans (names, purposes, collateral) are disclosed in the government filings, this headline dollar data is part of the regulatory oversight panel demanded to guard against banking executives getting preferential treatment.
“Our loan portfolio has a credit profile different from that of most other banking companies,” the banks aid in its 2022 annual report.
The firm added that “a significant portion of our loan portfolio is comprised of larger loans, which could increase the impact on us of any single borrower default.”
With DOJ and SEC eyes already probing the stock-sales ahead of the collapse, we can only imagine what this chart will do to stoke some more WTF-isms from Washington’s elites.
END
Judge ok’s lawsuits against JPMorgan and Deutsche bank in the Jeffrey Epstein affair
(Roberts/EpochTimes)
Judge OKs Lawsuits Against JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank For Epstein Connections
Two women referred to as “Jane Doe” filed federal class-action lawsuits against the banks in November last year, and the U.S. Virgin Islands filed its lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co. in December.
In his four-page order (pdf), U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff said the women can try to make a case on claims that the defendants “knowingly benefited from participating in a sex-trafficking venture,” “obstructed enforcement of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act,” and “negligently failed to exercise reasonable care to prevent physical harm.”
They can also pursue a claim that the banks “negligently failed to exercise reasonable care as a banking institution providing non-routine banking,” the judge said. However, all other claims are dismissed from the lawsuits.
With regard to the lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co. by the U.S. Virgin Islands, the judge ruled that the defendants can pursue the claim that the bank “knowingly benefited from participating in a sex-trafficking venture.”
The judge’s opinion explaining the reasons for his rulings is set to be published soon.
In their lawsuits, the two women had claimed that Epstein sexually abused them, and also accused the banks of aiding his sex trafficking operation by maintaining a financial relationship with him because he was a high-profile client.
They also claim that multiple cash payments came from the banks to pay Epstein’s victims.
Virgin Islands Accuses Bank of Enabling
The lawsuit brought by the U.S. Virgin Islands accused JPMorgan of enabling Epstein’s sex trafficking by providing banking services to the financier after he had been convicted of sex charges and concealing suspicious wire and cash transactions, despite the fact that employees at the bank had raised concerns over the institution’s relationship with Epstein.
It also suggests that JPMorgan senior officials at the bank were aware of Epstein’s crimes on the private and secluded island of Little St. James in the territory, and of the bank’s role in advancing them.
The banks denied being aware of Epstein’s abuses and sought to have the lawsuits dismissed.
Rakoff’s decision means the banks may be held financially liable for their relationships with Epstein if the plaintiffs succeed with their lawsuits in court.
Epstein, 66, died in a New York City jail in August 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. He had been a client of JPMorgan from 2000 to 2013 and Deutsche Bank from 2013 to 2018.
Following Rakoff’s ruling, Carol Thomas-Jacobs, the acting attorney general for the U.S. Virgin Islands, said the government looked forward to “ultimately proving our case in court.”
‘This Case Is Critically Important’
“We are pleased that the U.S. Virgin Islands will continue to work alongside survivors to hold JPMorgan Chase accountable for enabling Jeffrey Epstein’s heinous sex-trafficking venture,” Thomas-Jacobs said in a statement.
Elsewhere, Brad Edwards, the attorney representing Epstein’s accusers, called the rulings Monday “a monumental victory for the hundreds of survivors of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking scheme and survivors of sexual abuse in general, all of whom can rest easier knowing no individual or institution is above accountability.”
“Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation was impossible without the assistance of JPMorgan Chase, and later Deutsche Bank,” Edwards said, according to CNBC. “And we assure the public that we will leave no stone unturned in our quest for justice for the many victims who deserved better from one of America’s largest financial institutions.”
The Epoch Times has contacted JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank for comment.
Monday’s ruling comes after JPMorgan filed a lawsuit against its former investment banking chief Jes Staley earlier this month, alleging that Staley protected Epstein and demanding that he return all of his compensation from 2006 through 2013 while employed at the bank, totaling more than $80 million.
Staley has claimed that he was unaware of Epstein’s sex crimes despite maintaining a friendly relationship with him while he worked as a top executive for the bank.
“I thought I knew him well, and I didn’t,” he told The Wall Street Journal in early 2020. “For sure, with hindsight, with what we all know now, I deeply regret having had any relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his entire team should be cognizant of the fact that rents have been declining for many months. Despite this, Powell has been examining laggard data that persistently appears inflated.
The latest CoreLogic report adds to the mounting evidence of leading rental market indicators showing rent inflation has been cooling for the ninth consecutive month in January, as the yearly growth rate slid to the lowest point since 2021.
Single-family homes across the US experienced a 5.7% increase in value compared to the previous year. Each of the 20 major metropolitan regions monitored by CoreLogic saw annual rent growth in the single-digit range for the first time since the end of 2020.
Despite the high-frequency rent data from CoreLogic and other research firms indicating a clear deceleration, this slowdown has not yet been reflected in the Fed’s consumer-price data due to delays in the calculation process.
The good news is that with a long delay, the coming supply of new apartments – especially in places where housing inventory remains unusually low to the benefit of home sellers – will give renters more choices, making it not only more difficult for landlords to hike rents at rates seen last year.
end
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Alan Dershowitz: Trump Can Serve As President “From Prison”
Trump announced on social media this past weekend saying he believes he’ll be arrested soon in connection to District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s probe into whether he was involved in allegedly making hush money payments to during the 2016 campaign. Unnamed sources have also told news outlets that the former president may be indicted, but Trump has denied any wrongdoing.
Dershowitz, an attorney who has represented controversial clients including O.J. Simpson and Jim Bakker, told Newsmax that he believes Trump will be indicted in New York City because of what he described as an unfair legal system in the Democrat-dominated city. But if Trump is convicted and sentenced to a prison term, the U.S. Constitution will allow him to serve in that capacity.
“He will be indicted,” Dershowitz, who also provided legal counsel to Trump during his first impeachment trial, told Newsmax. “In New York, you can indict a ham sandwich. In New York City, you can convict a ham sandwich because the jury pool is so unfair. Even if he’s convicted, he can run for president. He can run for president from prison; he can even serve as president from prison.”
The U.S. Constitution doesn’t bar felons from holding elected office, including the presidency. The Constitution’s text only lists three criteria to run for president: a candidate has to be age 35 or older, be a natural born citizen, and they must have lived in the United States for at least 14 years.
Trump has previously stated that he will continue to run for president in 2024 even if he is charged. Later this month, Trump is slated to hold his first 2024 rally in Waco, Texas.
There has been no public announcement of any time frame for the Manhattan grand jury’s secret work in the case. At least one additional witness is expected to testify, further indicating that no vote to indict has yet been taken, according to a person familiar with the investigation who was not authorized to publicly discuss the case and spoke on condition of anonymity.
A Trump-affiliated lawyer, Robert Castello, told media outlets on Monday that he testified in front of a Manhattan grand jury and sought to denigrate testimony put forth by Michael Cohen, a former Trump attorney who has been described as a key witness in the case. Castello said that Cohen, who was sentenced to federal prison on a range of charges, is an unreliable witness.
Meanwhile, Bragg’s office has issued few public statements in connection to the investigation. A spokesperson for the district attorney issued a response to the Washington Post regarding a House Republican demand for information and testimony in connection to the Trump probe, merely saying that claims that New York City is dealing with a surge in violent crime is not true.
A Trump lawyer, Susan Necheles, told The Associated Press that Trump’s weekend Truth Social post was “based on the media reports,” and another Trump spokesperson said there had been “no notification” from Bragg’s office, though the origin of Trump’s Tuesday reference was unclear. The Epoch Times has contacted Bragg’s office for comment.
Trump’s aides and legal team have been reportedly preparing for the possibility of an indictment. Should that happen, he would be arrested only if he refused to surrender. Trump’s lawyers have previously said he would follow normal procedure, meaning he would likely agree to surrender at a New York Police Department precinct or directly to Bragg’s office.
The indictment of Trump, 76, would be an extraordinary development after years of investigations that yielded essentially nothing. It would also be the first time a current or former president was indicted.
and to keep the White House? … It’ll destroy the justice system. And that’s not a small thing.” Liberal Dem lawyer Alan Dershowitz says in 60 years of practicing law he’s never seen a greater abuse
‘Liberal Dem lawyer Alan Dershowitz says in 60 years of practicing law he’s never seen a greater abuse of prosecutorial discretion & he’s seen plenty, but this is the worst because they had to make up a misdemeanor & a felony, relate them, then violate the statute of limitations.’
Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at the American Bankers Association’s Washington DC Summit (Complete waste of time and space; nothing of note) To end, let me return to where I started. A safe and sound banking system is integral to the health of the American economy. We are squarely focused on doing our job. And you should rest assured that we will remain vigilant. I look forward to continuing to work together to strengthen our banking system and our nation’s economy. Thank you. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1354
@joelgriffith: Treasury, FDIC, and the Fed do NOT have the power to raise the insurance cap without congressional approval. Furthermore, such an unlawful act is NOT required to stop these bank runs.
Yesterday, stocks rallied sharply on reports that the US government is trying to figure out how toinsure an estimated $18 trillion of bank deposits with FDIC funds of $125B and the Treasury’s $25B Exchange StabilizationFund. Plus, the inculcated buying for an FOMC Meeting occurred.
US Sen Scott pushes for new Fed inspector general, slams Fed over bank regulation Republican U.S. Senator Rick Scott said he will introduce legislation to create an independent inspector general to oversee the Federal Reserve, as he called the U.S. central bank ‘unable or unwilling to properly regulate’ bankshttps://t.co/B9TjpKdUco
@NAR_Research: Existing-home sales jumped 14.5% (5% expected) in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million (4.2m expected), snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. https://t.co/kRcXGRqVqt
President Xi tells Russia’s Putin that China intends to play ‘constructive role’ in Ukraine peace negotiationshttps://t.co/O3iJpCt96V
ESMs traded modestly higher in early Nikkei trading but retreated into negative territory near 20:00 ET. Someone then aggressively bought ESMs, spiking them 17 handles higher in 14 minutes. ESMs and stocks quickly retreated to unchanged for the day. Another rally appeared; it was modest. ESMs and stocks then traded sideways until the rally for the European open commenced.
ESMs and stocks rallied further after Europe opened; but the rally ended by 3:45 ET. ESMs and stocks went inert until another up leg commenced at 5:50 ET. The rally ended at 7:30 ET. ESMs and stocks once again went inert. Traders aggressively bought ESMs 3 minutes before the NYSE open. But sellers appeared on the NYSE open. Is the pump & dump trade for the NYSE open too crowded now?
After dropping 8 handles by 9:48 ET, ESMs spiked 13 handles higher in 10 minutes. But that was it; ESMs and stocks sank until 10:58 ET. Of course, the rally for the European close appeared. After Europe closed, ESMs and stocks sank to new NYSE session lows.
After a modest rebound rally, ESMs and stocks traded sideways until the late upward manipulation began at 14:50 ET. ESMs and stocks soared; the rally peaked at 15:44 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks soared, led by Fangs, meme stocks and related trading sardines
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply again. The 2-year note yield hit 4.18%; it was 3.8374% on Friday
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who else is in trouble? How many more ‘problems’ are lurking? How will buying stocks because there is a global banking crisis work out?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3994.38 Previous session High/Low: 4009.08; 3971.19
@JackMacCFB: What a business model for Pfizer. Make a Schiffy vaccine. Get it required to take in order to participate in daily life. Turn around and make a drug that rhymes with COVID that you should definitely take because the 4 vaccines you told us to get were not that effective.
Today – A very important Fed Day has markets on edge. The consensus view is that the Fed will hike rates 25bps, voice concern about inflation, forecast solid GDP growth for this year, but note there are risks due to the global banking crisis. Powell will likely reiterate the contents of the communique and will probably emphasize that the US regional banking crisis is limited, contained, and will skew risk to the downside in the short term/next few months. Powell typically throws a bone to stock bulls.
The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since March 6 (4048.42). A 50bp rate hike was in play then.
Numerous ex-Fed and Treasury officials opine that the Fed must hike 25bps to show confidence in banks. The CME FedWatch shows an 86.4% chance of a 25bp rate. The Fed hates to surprise markets!
Traders are extremely bullish. Barring a hawkish surprise in the communique or Powell Press Conference, the usual suspects want to gun stocks higher.
FT: Xi Jinping backs Vladimir Putin on Ukraine but holds out on Russian gas pipeline His failure to back up Putin’s rapturous economic rhetoric shows they aren’t as aligned as they say – and China holds all the cards… https://www.ft.com/content/ae0bb3f6-4cc3-49ca-a0e6-93a8e7cc62cc
Putin and Xi just met to plot world domination while Biden hung with the cast of “Ted Lasso.” Newt Gingrich says it’s the most dangerous moment for America since “Washington crossed the Delaware.”… Biden doesn’t fancy himself a commander-in-chief. The Biden family has, for generations… considered themselves old-school aristocrats who were owed a life of luxury in the New World. He sees himself not as an elected military commander who is to faithfully steward the power of the executive in checking the legislature and the judiciary while protecting us from enemies both domestic and abroad. He thinks of himself a king who gets to roll out of bed at 10 a.m., take 40% of his week for vacation, and wine and dine like Jay Gatsby with the rich and famous… https://twitter.com/Not_the_Bee/status/1638205062785691651
Zelensky Says Invited China To Talks On Ukraine, ‘Waiting For Answer’ “We offered China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula. We passed over our formula across all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer,” Zelensky told a press conference, adding that: “We are receiving some signals, but there are no specifics yet”… https://www.barrons.com/news/zelensky-says-invited-china-to-talks-on-ukraine-waiting-for-answer-935fa091
ABC: Special counsel claims Trump deliberately misled his attorneys about classified documents, judge wrote – The judge said there could be indications of criminal violations, per sources… In her sealed filing, (Judge) Howell (Obama appointee) ordered that Evan Corcoran, an attorney for Trump, should comply with a grand jury subpoena for testimony on six separate lines of inquiry over which he had previously asserted attorney-client privilege… In response to ABC News, a Trump campaign spokesperson said, in part, “Shame on Fake News ABC for broadcasting ILLEGALLY LEAKED false allegations from a Never Trump, now former chief judge, against the Trump legal team.”… https://abcnews.go.com/US/sources-special-counsel-claims-trump-deliberately-misled-attorneys/story
Ron DeSantis opens fire on Trump’s character, chaotic leadership style “Well I think there’s a few things. The approach to COVID was different. I would have fired somebody like Fauci. I think he got way too big for his britches, and I think he did a lot of damage.” DeSantis also slammed Trump’s chaotic, self-obsessed, and divisive management style, saying: “I also think just in terms of my approach to leadership, I get personnel in the Government who have the agenda of the people and share our agenda.. So, the way we run the Government I think is no daily drama, focus on the big picture and put points on the board and I think that’s something that’s very important… It’s not important for me to be fighting with people on social media. It’s not accomplishing anything for the people I represent.”… “You made a fatal error in your relationship with Donald Trump,” I suggested… “You got too popular.” DeSantis laughed loudly… https://nypost.com/2023/03/21/ron-desantis-opens-fire-on-trumps-character-chaotic-style/
The invasion of Iraq: Perspectives on war 20 years later “Their war aim was to remove Saddam Hussein from power,” O’Connell said. “Their legal justification involved a 1991 United Nations Security Council resolution mandating an end to any Iraqi program for weapons of mass destruction… Hearings in the UK after the invasion revealed government officials were fully aware of the far greater flaws–the legal argument was a sham… “The U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq caused widespread chaos, death and destruction,” Cortright said. “War, armed insurgency and bitter ethnic strife turned Iraq into a setting of vast economic and social suffering. Violence spread from multiple sources: U.S. bombing and military operations, the armed insurrection that rose against the invasion, the development of militias and extremist groups and the emergence and growth of the Islamic State.” Cortright noted that one of the most rigorous scientific studies of the period between 2003 and 2011 concluded that approximately half a million deaths were attributable to the direct and indirect consequences of the U.S. war and military occupation… https://news.nd.edu/news/the-invasion-of-iraq-perspectives-on-war-20-years-later/
@MrAndyNgo: In case you were wondering how far-left extremists get paid to riot, this is one of the ways. Networks of far-left legal groups file frivolous lawsuits to get easy cash settlements from Democrat cities. The money is used to fund & support their operations to keep the racket going. The other goal is to punish police departments for trying to stop left-wing riots. In some cities, like Portland & Seattle, police just stopped responding to BLM-Antifa rioting altogether.
Philadelphia to Pay $9.25 Million to Settle Suit by George Floyd Protesters The protesters said they sustained “physical and emotional injuries” in the response by city police to civil unrest after his murder in Minneapolis in 2020… https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/us/philadelphia-protests-settlement.html
“Without freedom, law is but a cynical veneer for injustice and oppression.” – Ronald Reagan
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING
I will see you TOMORROW
STARTING TOMORROW, I WILL ONLY DO ABBREVIATED COMMENTARIES,
6:28 PM ∙ Mar 21, 2023605Likes284RetweetsThe U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs informed members who may have been exposed that “recent research shows there may be an association between elevated urine uranium in these Veterans and lower bone mineral density (BMD). The BMD results require further study to determine if they persist over time and researchers and clinicians continue to monitor the health of these Veterans.”ENDROBERT H TO US: EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UKB. Putin & S. Shoigu threaten Britain with holocaust: Use of depleted uranium will be perceived as a nuclear attack against Russia! (vid) – WarNews247This is really nuts.Did the world not learn anything from the use of such ammunition in Iraq?
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