March 22, 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
Mar 23 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $47.70 at $1996,40
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.62 to $23.11
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1993.70
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.11
Bitcoin morning price:, $28,156 UP 9 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,185 UP 38 dollars
Platinum price closing $982,60 UP $8.55
Palladium price; closing $1462.30 UP $70.50
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,732 50 UP 30 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50
BRITISH GOLD: 1622,30 UP 18 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1839,95 UP 27,83euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
COMEX DATA EXCHANGE: COMEXEXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,946.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/22/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 03/24/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 23
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 12
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 4
905 C ADM 38
TOTAL: 39 39
MONTH TO DATE: 5,192
JPMORGAN stopped 7/180 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 39 NOTICES FOR 3900 OZ or 0.1213 TONNES
total notices so far: 5192 contracts for 519200 oz (16.149 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3146 for 15,730000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $$47.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 62CENTS
AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF OF 0.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 459.485 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 496 CONTRACTS TO 119,578 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WITH TODAY’S READING AT THE COMEX, WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 119,126 CONTRACTS , MARCH 22.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.34). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1017 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 521 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E<F>P>JUMP TO LONDON OF 180,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.750 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.750MILLION OZ/ //// V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –44 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 13,274contracts: OR 66 370 MILLION OZ . (7980CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 66 370MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 66.370 MILLION OZ//INITIAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 496 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 521 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 180,000 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.750MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1017OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 554 CONTRACTS TO 470,428 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED-3517 CONTRACTS. (huge)
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 10,262 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $10.10 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ (0.133TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $10.10 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2698 OI CONTRACTS (8,3119 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2144 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 470,428
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2698 CONTRACTS WITH 6554 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2144 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2698 CONTRACTS OR 8 3919 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2144 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (554) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2698 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 16.4199 TONNES // ///3) zero LONG LIQUIDATION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 73,936 CONTRACTS OR 7,393,600 OZ OR 229.97 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4487 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 229.27 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 229.26/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 229.82 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1496CONTRACTS OI TO 119,082 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 119,082 CONTRACTS TODAY, MARCH 22/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 521 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 521 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 521 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 496 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 521 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1017 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //5.0855MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.15 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.90 PTS OR 0.64% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 162.12 PTS OR 2.95% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 47,08 PTS OR 0.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED down 0.67% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed up 6.8189//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN up TO 6.8169/ /Oil UP TO 71.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.84 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOWLEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 554CONTRACTS UP TO 470,428 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.10 ON TUESDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2144 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2144 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2144 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR TOTAL OF 2,698 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2144 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 554 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.10. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (16.1648) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 16.4199 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $10.10) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2698CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.319 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ (0.1227TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38.70
WE HAD -3517 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2698 CONTRACTS OR 269,800OZ OR 8.3919TONNES
TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 293,675// //fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 309,993///fair to good
//MARCH 23/ MARCH 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 64.30 oz Brinks 2 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 39 notice(s) 3,900OZ 0.1213TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 48 contracts 4800 oz .149TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5192 notices 519200 16.149 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of BRINKS: 64.30 oz (2 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 64.30 oz
in tonnes: 0.0002 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 87 contracts having LOST 137 contracts. We had 180 notices filed on TUESDAY so we
gained 43 contracts or an additional 4300 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April LOST A CONSIDERABLE 10,121 contracts DOWN to 138,088 contracts. It is here that our banker friends have to worry as many will try and take delivery in this upcoming delivery month.
May GAINED 124 contracts to stand at 641
We had 39 notice(s) filed today for 3900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 180 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,192 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 87 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 39 x 100 oz per contract equals 527,900OZ OR 16.4199TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (5,192x 100 oz+ 87 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (39)x 100 oz} which equals 527,900 oz standing OR 16.4199TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 16.4199 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,753,544.746 OZ 54.54 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,357,630.556 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,907,133.229 (339.25 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,450,400.876 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,153,544.746 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 284.71 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAR 23/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 646,379.130 oz Brinks CNT JPMorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 8,787,495oz Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 22 contracts (110,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3146contracts (15,730,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i)Into Delaware: 8787.495 0z
Total deposits: 8787.495oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.229 million oz/282.387million =51.69% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of CNT 20,329,880 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 1973.95 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan; 646,379.130 oz
Total withdrawals; 646,379.130 oz
adjustments: 1 all dealer to customer
i) JPMorgan 594,561.900
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 36.669MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 282.387million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 26 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 40 CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED
YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST 36 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 180,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND
April LOST 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 401.
May LOST 290CONTRACTS DOWN TO 95,803.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 58,091/ good//
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,885contracts ( good)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3146 x 5,000 oz = 15,730,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(26) and the number of notices served upon today 3x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3146 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (26) – number of notices served upon today (3) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.750million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.750million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 925.42 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 459.485MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
The Federal Reserve Is Walking A Tightrope In A Hurricane
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 04:58 PM
Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,
The Federal Reserve is trying to walk a tightrope — in a hurricane.
After rate hikes resulted in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury stepped in with a bailout. With that hole in the dam seemingly plugged for the time being, the Fed pushed forward and raised interest rates by another 25 basis points at its March meeting.
In effect, the bank bailout ended the inflation fight while allowing the Fed to continue the pretense of an inflation fight for a little while longer.
THE RATE HIKE
At its March meeting, the FOMC raised interest rates by another quarter percent. That brings the target range for the Fed funds rate to between 4.75 and 5%. It was the ninth consecutive rate increase.
The official FOMC statement asserted that the “US banking system is sound and resilient.”
It also noted that inflation “remains elevated.”
CPI came in at 6% in February. Although the CPI has ticked down in recent months, it remains closer to the 2022 highs than it does the 2% Fed target.
The FOMC statement indicated that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”
But it removed language from the statement saying the committee expects “ongoing increases” and replaced it with a line saying the committee “will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy.”
This was widely viewed as a doveish indication that the Fed might be close to the end of rate hikes.
But the statement emphasized that “the Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”
During the post-meeting press conference, Powell indicated that the banking crisis may actually help the Fed beat down inflation by tightening lending conditions.
Or maybe not.
It’s possible that these events will turn out to be very modest effects on the economy, in which case inflation will continue to be strong, in which case, you know, the path might look different. It’s also possible that this potential tightening will contribute significant tightening in credit conditions over time. And in principle, that means that monetary policy may have less work to do. We simply don’t know.”
The 25 basis point rate hike was widely anticipated. With price inflation still running far above the target, the Fed couldn’t plausibly pivot and end rate hikes. But make no mistake, the inflation fight ended the moment the central bank created the bank bailout program.
SOMETHING BROKE
The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank were the first things to break as a result of Fed tightening.
They won’t be the last.
As I’ve been saying for months, this was inevitable. This bubble economy is built on artificially low interest rates and money creation. The Fed took some of that away when it started tightening monetary policy. In effect, the central bank has dug the foundation out from under the economy and the financial system. You can’t undermine a foundation without eventually causing the entire building to collapse.
During his post-FOMC meeting press conference, Powell tried the paint the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank as “an outlier.”
“These are not weaknesses that are at all broadly through the banking system,” Powell claimed.
This is simply false.
In fact, the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank was the tip of the iceberg. According to a Washington Post report, hundreds of banks are at risk because the Fed rate hikes have decimated the value of bonds held by these banks.
According to the Post, the capital buffer in the US banking system totals $2.2 trillion. Meanwhile, total unrealized losses in the system is between $1.7 and $2 trillion.
In other words, if banks were suddenly forced to liquidate their bond and loan portfolios, the losses would erase between 77 percent and 91 percent of their combined capital cushion. It follows that large numbers of banks are terrifyingly fragile.”
The fact that the Fed loaned banks some $300 billion in the first week of the bailout indicates the problem wasn’t “an outlier.”
KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
The Fed executed a shrewd move with its bank bailout. It created a way to mitigate the impact of interest rate hikes on bank balance sheets without having to lower interest rates more broadly.
After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the Federal Reserve announced a loan program that will allow other banks to easily access capital “to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors.”
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will offer loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging US Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. Banks will be able to borrow against their assets “at par” (face value).
According to a Federal Reserve statement, “the BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.”
Keep in mind, banks are struggling precisely because the Fed raised interest rates so fast after holding them at zero for so long. As Peter Schiff noted, “It was the Federal Reserve that created all these distortions by its artificial suppression of interest rates, and it caused financial institutions to take incredible risks in order to get a return.”
With this loan program in place, banks can access capital based on their devalued bond holdings without selling their Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities into the market at a big loss (as SVB was forced to do). This provides some stability for both the banks and the bond markets.
This is how the Fed was able to raise interest rates and make a show of staying in the inflation fight. It can even keep shedding Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities from its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the banks can avoid the pain by accessing this crazy loan program. In effect, it can have its cake and eat it too – at least for a little while.
I think Powell and Company are hoping this loan boondoggle will buy them time to keep tightening for a while longer in the hope that CPI will drop enough in the next couple of months to claim victory over inflation and then pivot without losing face.
THE INFLATION FIGHT IS OVER
But make no mistake, no matter what Powell says, the inflation fight is over.
You don’t fight inflation by handing banks $300 billion of money created out of thin air. The purpose of monetary tightening is to squeeze liquidity out of the system. This loan program does the opposite. It injects liquidity into the system. It is the exact opposite of inflation fighting. It literally creates inflation.
Furthermore, it’s only a matter of time before something else breaks in the economy or the financial system. Banks aren’t the only things being impacted by increasing interest rates. Corporations are levered to the hilt. The federal government continues to borrow and spend, running up its debt. American consumers have buried themselves under record credit card debt. The entire economy is based on artificially low interest rates.
And the Fed just raised rates again.
The Fed may have managed to get a finger in one crack in the dam — for now — but it won’t be long before another hole appears. And then another. And then another.
It’s only a matter of time before the Fed has to abandon the pretense of an inflation fight, pivot, and start cutting rates.
In other words, inflation has won.
But for now, Powell and Company can continue to pretend to be tough on inflation. It can keep walking the tightrope. But tightrope walking in a hurricane is doomed to fail.
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino
A
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Monetary madness endgame
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-22 14:57Section: Daily Dispatches
2:52p ET Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
As the Federal Reserve slowly backs away from raising interest rates, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes at Sprott Money today that the Keynesian era of monetary management is coming to an end in the long-expected uncontrolled inflation.
Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Monetary Madness Endgame” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Monetary-Madness-Endgame-2023-03-22
END
New York Sun: Louisiana congressman turns out to have been a prophet about the Fed
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-22 13:38Section: Daily Dispatches
From the New York Sun
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
https://www.nysun.com/article/the-federal-reserve-a-prophet-arises-from-louisiana
With the world beguiled by the predicament of the Federal Reserve — whether to raise interest rates to fight inflation or lower them to ease the banking crisis — this is a moment to reprise why Congress created the central bank in the first place. Monetary sage Edwin Vieira, Jr., reminds us that the Fed was formed at the acme of the Progressive Era to rationalize finance and prevent banking crises.
Just like the one we have today.
t was the Panic of 1907 — prompted by bank runs — that got the wheels spinning. The crisis, which sparked a global recession, was traced to “the handicap of an unscientific currency system,” as it was put by a founder of the Fed, Senator Glass. Never mind that under the gold standard America had a stable currency that allowed it to reach industrial dominance while holding inflation to an average of 0.1% a year.
Congress, advised by a monetary commission, in 1913 created the Fed to provide, as Mr. Vieira puts it, “so-called scientific management of currency and credit.” During the debate the Sun wrote that it was “difficult to discuss with any degree of patience this preposterous offspring of ignorance and unreason.” It described the proposed central bank as “an official board to exercise absolute control” of finance and as “covered all over with the slime of Bryanism.”
That was a reference to William Jennings Bryan, who, in the epic election of 1896, ran for free silver, which meant inflation, and lost to William McKinley, who stood for honest money. The Great Depression would soon put the lie to the Fed’s ability to ward off economic disaster.
“Scientific management didn’t work,” is how Mr. Vieira sums it up. He sees in the creation of the Fed the same statist impulses animating the New Deal.
The result, Mr. Vieira says, was to “cartelize” banking, with the Fed “at the top of the pyramid.”
Twenty years later FDR and his New Deal brain trust formed the National Recovery Administration, an attempt to manage American capitalism using the progressive euphemisms of systematizing and rationalizing. Yet when the NRA was struck down by a unanimous Supreme Court, the Fed, an anomaly, was left alone.
Congress had tried to prevent the resulting disaster by insisting, before it passed the Federal Reserve Act, that nothing in the law would authorize abrogating convertibility of the dollar under the Gold Standard Act of 1900. Congress also imposed on the Fed a 40% gold reserve requirement for paper money the central bank issued. “We have provided against inflation in almost every conceivable way,” Glass growled.
These pledges would ring hollow.
FDR devalued the dollar in 1933, and Congress forbade Americans from owning gold. After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement established a new value of the dollar. It required our government to redeem at a 35th of an ounce of gold dollars presented to it by foreign governments. That fell apart in the late 1960s and 1970s and we were precipitated into a 50-year experiment with fiat money.
The result has been not only inflation but quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates, culminating in today’s banking crisis. The central bank, freed from its responsibility to maintain the dollar’s fixed value in specie, has veered far from its legislated purpose. As have the other Bretton Woods institutions; even now, an effort is underway to shift the World Bank to a new mission, regulating the weather around the planet.
Which brings us back to the Fed, as it faces the dilemma of how to extricate America from the very crisis that the central bank has induced. It turns out that during the debate over creating the Fed, a congressman from Louisiana, James Walter Elder, uttered words that may yet make him a prophet: “If this bill becomes a law, someday the American people will have a memorable fight to unshackle themselves from this government bank.”
end
These twi readers are the top gun of the industry fraud in gold.silver trading
Former JPMorgan traders should get prison for spoofing, prosecution says
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-22 13:13Section: Daily Dispatches
By Steve Smith
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
The former head of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. precious-metals business and his top gold trader should get multiyear prison terms after they were convicted of spoofing the market for years, the U.S. government said in a court filing.
Michael Nowak, who ran the precious-metals desk, should get five years, and Gregg Smith, the top trader, should get six years, prosecutors said today in a sentencing memo to the federal judge in Chicago who presided over their trial. The recommendation was for longer terms than traders at other banks who have been convicted of spoofing.
The government said significant sentences are warranted because the two had spoofed for years and knew that what they were doing was prohibited.
At trial prosecutors presented evidence that included detailed trading records, chat logs, and testimony by former co-workers who “pulled back the curtain” on how Nowak and Smith moved precious-metals prices up and down for profit from 2008 to 2016. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UPTO 6.8189
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8169
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20,90PTS OR 0.64%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 458.21 PTS OR 2,34%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN47.04PTS OR 0.17%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101,84 EURO RISES TO 1.0885 UP 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.312!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 131.06/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2085%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.058*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.253…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.135/
3j Gold at $1984.85/silver at: 23.07 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 05/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.00//
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 131.06 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .312% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9132 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9947well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.470% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.734 UP 4BASIS PTS//I
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.058UP 12 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.05…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.404% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rebound After Yellen Torches Markets
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 01:58 PM
After 76 year old treasury secretary Janet Yellen blew up the market yesterday with her post-FOMC comments that regulators aren’t looking to provide “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the US banking system, stock futures have rebounded modestly on Thursday, while paring some earlier gains. S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% at 3990 at 7:45 a.m. ET while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%. Both underlying indexes fell the most in two weeks yesterday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index flirted with a bull market yesterday after briefly rising 20% from its December low. US government bond yields have edged up after falling sharply on Wednesday when the Fed raised rates 25bps but also opened the door to a pause, while WTI crude futures are down 0.6% in early US session. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.8%, falling for the first time this week before a rates decision from the Bank of England.
In premarket trading, banking stocks were again the biggest laggards, following weakness in their US peers and as Citigroup Inc. slashed its outlook for the sector. Coinbase slumped after the largest US crypto exchange said it received a notice from the SEC formally declaring the securities regulator’s plans to bring an enforcement action against it. Analysts say the notice might be a precursor to the agency ultimately suing the company. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- First Republic Bank shares rose on Thursday along with banking peers, set for a tentative rebound from yesterday’s losses following disappointment over comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen over bank deposits.
- Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise as Bitcoin rebounds after snapping a six-session gaining streak on Wednesday. US equity futures also climbed, signaling a recovery following a tumultuous day of losses on Wall Street. Marathon Digital (MARA US) +5.1%, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) +4.7%.
- Chewy falls as much as 6.6% in US premarket trade after the online pet supplies retailer issued softer-than-expected FY23 guidance, with plans for international expansion likely to pressure margins. The company’s 4Q results also showed declining customer numbers, which Barclays says raises questions given that headwinds should have been abating.
- Phreesia Inc. shares dropped 3.3% in postmarket trading, after the application software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations but gave a revenue outlook that KeyBanc sees as light.
Caution reigned in markets on Thursday following the Fed’s decision to proceed with a quarter-point rate hike, combined with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks on the health of the banking sector. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell assured that regulators’ actions demonstrated “all depositors’ savings are safe” as he raised rates by an expected quarter point, Yellen effectively contradicted him and sent stocks whipsawing, when she said regulators aren’t looking to provide “blanket” deposit insurance.
“Yellen’s comments were clearly the more important factor yesterday,” said Manish Kabra, US equity strategist at Société Générale. “Not securing all deposits risks more deposit runs, which means large banks’ outperformance versus regional banks is likely to continue. Overall, the US banks rally will continue to fade, at least until the yield curve is firmly positive.”
“It is well possible that the post-FOMC equity selloff quickly reverses, as falling yields are supportive of equity valuations — if financial stress is contained and economic data is not too bad,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
UBS strategists led by Mark Haefele believe that any rally would be unlikely to endure just yet however, noting that turning points usually rely on investors anticipating interest-rate cuts alongside a trough in economic activity and corporate earnings. “The Fed’s actions and analysis of the economy suggest these conditions are not yet fully in place,” they said in a note.
Separately, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists say they expect US households to be net sellers of $750 billion worth of stocks in 2023 amid rising bond yields and declining personal savings. The team led by Cormac Conners says higher 10-year yields and lower savings rates tend to be associated with decreased net equity demand from households.
As a result of the ongoing bank crisis, the swap market shows investors are split on the chances that Fed officials will add another 25 basis points to their benchmark in May. Despite Powell’s guidance, expectations for cuts have deepened, with the market suggesting that the effective fed funds rate will drop to around 4.1% in December. “I would not expect the market to take these rate cuts out in the near term and could very well price in more cuts if the data deteriorates from here,” Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg Television. Powell himself, though, said in response to questioning that officials “just don’t” see cuts this year and that they will raise higher than expected if that is needed. “Rate cuts are not in our base case,” he said. He also didn’t see the bank crisis as recently as three weeks ago when he swore to Congress he would hike rates 50bps only to trigger the worst banking crisis since Lehman.
European stocks are on course to snap a three-day winning streak as banks underperform after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned they aren’t considering widespread insurance for bank deposits. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.0% while the Stoxx 600 Banks Index falls 2.5%. Here are some of the biggest European movers:
- HSBC shares drop as much as 3.3%, ING slides as much as 2.5% and ABN Amro tumbles as much as 3.7% after US peers fell on remarks that US lawmakers aren’t planning on widespread insurance for bank deposits
- Jeronimo Martins falls as much as 4.1%, curbing the stock’s rally since the start of the month, after 4Q earnings showed a further drop in the Portuguese retailer’s margins
- Rallye SA slumps as much as 10% after the company said the latest earnings from its French supermarket business make it difficult to finish debt restructuring
- Gym Group drops as much as 5.1% after Barclays downgrades the fitness operator to equal-weight from overweight, citing a “bleak” profit outlook
- Sanofi gains as much as 5.3%, the most since December, after releasing positive data from a phase 3 trial for its key drug Dupixent
- Scout24 climbs as much as 4.4%, reaching highest since mid-November, after the online classified advertising company announced a buyback
- Inwit rises as much as 4.8% to a record after Reuters reported that private equity firm Ardian is in the early stage of exploring a bid for the Italian tower operator
- Domino’s Pizza Group jumps as much as 4.3% after Barclays upgrades the pizza delivery chain to overweight from equal-weight, highlighting the increase in app usage
- Meyer Burger gains as much as 15% after the Swiss solar equipment manufacturer’s Ebitda and profitability beat expectations
- Nemetschek shares rise as much as 13% to their highest level since September. The German firm’s outlook for 2024 and 2025 was seen as solid
The BOE is likely to continue the quickest series of interest-rate increases in three decades, with its focus on combating inflation outweighing calls for a pause given recent turmoil in the banking system. The Swiss and Norwegian central banks both raised rates Thursday, as forecast, and flagged more hikes to come in their campaigns to tame rising consumer prices.
For the BOE, February UK CPI data have “removed any flexibility they may have thought they had and now markets are pricing in a higher terminal rate of around 4.5% as a result,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda Ltd. “This makes the language that accompanies the decision key,” he said, expecting policymakers to highlight an uncertain outlook and the need to be data-dependent.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as the region’s currencies strengthened against the dollar despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise US interest rates on Wednesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, rising for a third day, as most Asian currencies, including South Korea’s won and Thailand’s baht, gained. Hong Kong’s equity benchmarks were among the top performers, boosted by gains in Tencent after the firm reported better-than-expected revenue. Stock gauges in Japan and India underperformed. “Dollar reaction to the Fed hike looks to be muted, which can ease pressure on Asian currencies and fund flows,” said Marvin Chen, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Focus should be on the dollar impact as peak Fed rates near.” The dollar slid as market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed deepened despite the central bank hiking its benchmark rate by a quarter-point and signaling that it expects more tightening after that.
A weaker greenback tends to be beneficial for Asian shares if it signals higher risk appetite and is seen as a positive for growth in the region’s emerging economies, many of which rely on imports priced in dollars. An index of Asian financial stocks headed for a three-day gain as a key technical indicator suggested the sector’s loss of more than 3% this month may have been excessive. US shares slumped Wednesday after comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rattled US bank shares and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes on rate cuts this year. Given expected slower US growth and the stresses in its banking system, it makes more sense to lean into the stronger growth recovery in China as well as Hong Kong and Thailand, said Sunil Koul, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, in a Bloomberg TV interview
Japanese equities fell, following US peers lower, after comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rattled US bank shares and Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said he was prepared to keep raising rates. The Topix Index fell 0.3% to 1,957.32 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.2% to 27,419.61. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 1,256 rose and 781 fell, while 122 were unchanged. Yellen told US lawmakers that the government wasn’t considering “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the banking system while Powell said he was ready to keep raising rates until inflation shows signs of cooling. Japanese shares are falling after the comments, said Rina Oshimo, a senior strategist at Okasan Securities.
Australian stocks joined the selloff: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.7% to close at 6,968.60, in a broad decline weighed by losses in mining shares and banks. The drop followed a slump on Wall Street as the Federal Reserve pushed back against bets for interest rate cuts this year. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 11,594.94
Lastly, stocks in India were among the worst performers in Asia amid a mixed trend seen across global markets as investors remained concerned over the future course of central banks’ policy actions. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 57,925.28 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.4%. The gauge is now little changed this week after dropping for two out of the last four sessions. The benchmarks have slipped more than 4.5% each for the year. The underperformance in local equities compared with Asian and emerging market peers is a result of surging interest rates in the US – the Fed raised its main lending rate by another 25 bps on Wednesday to 5% – impacting flows from overseas investors. Index-heavy software exporters and banks came under pressure on increasing worries over global economic growth. Foreign investors have sold $2.8b of local shares this year through March 20 following inflows of about $11b over the preceding two quarters. Domestic investors have however remained buyers to the tune of $9b in 2023. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 13 rose, while 17 fell.
In FX, weakness in the dollar extended to a sixth day, with a gauge of the greenback falling to the lowest in more than a month as traders boosted bets for US interest-rate cuts, even after the Fed said more tightening may be needed. It has since rebounded fractionally from session lows.
- The Norwegian krone gained 1% versus the dollar after a hawkish 25bps hike from the Norges Bank. While there were expectations that Norges Bank would stand pat after hiking today, the central bank explicitly signaled another increase in May
- The pound and euro advanced, with the former climbing on leveraged demand amid expectations for the Bank of England to deliver a hawkish quarter-point rate increase on Thursday, according to a trader “With the banking sector concerns still fresh, the Fed was more dovish than just a while ago and that is dragging down bond yields and the dollar,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “I still think the Fed will raise the rate to tame inflation, which seems to remain stubborn”
- The Swiss franc struggled to hold gains after the SNB opted for a 50bps increase. The Dollar Index is little changed.
In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve, although futures remain near top of Wednesday’s range, a bull-steepening rally following Fed’s rate decision. US two-year yields are up ~2bps while UK two-year borrowing costs fall 9bps ahead of the Bank of England rate decision later today. Thursday’s losses are belly-led, cheapening 2s5s30s fly by ~3bp on the day. Bank of England rate decision at 8am New York time is expected to be a quarter-point rate increase. US yields cheaper by 3bp-5bp across the curve with 10-year around 3.48%, near low end of Wednesday’s 3.427%-3.642% range; on the curve, 2s10s spread is wider by ~1.5bp on the day, near Wednesday’s steepest levels, while 5s30s spread tightens ~1.5bp. Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 13bp of rate hike premium for the May policy decision and then ~75bp of cuts by year-end.
Crude futures decline with WTI falling 1.2% to trade near $70.05. Spot gold adds 0.5% to around $1,980. Bitcoin rises 1.2%.
Looking to the day ahead now, monetary policy decisions will include the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank. Data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, February’s new home sales, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity for March, and the Q4 current account balance. Finally, EU leaders will gather in Brussels for a summit.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,989.00
- MXAP up 1.3% to 160.31
- MXAPJ up 1.5% to 517.51
- Nikkei down 0.2% to 27,419.61
- Topix down 0.3% to 1,957.32
- Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 20,049.64
- Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,286.65
- Sensex little changed at 58,181.18
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,968.61
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,424.48
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 445.25
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.28%
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.0897
- Brent Futures down 0.2% to $76.52/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,977.01
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 102.16
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Hong Kong’s CPI for Feb falls short of expectations, coming in at +1.7% (down from +2.4% in Jan and below the St’s +2.4% forecast). Singapore’s inflation also comes in a bit below plan at +6.3% headline for Feb (down from +6.6% in Jan and below the St’s +6.4% forecast). BBG
- Blinken’s planned trip to China may be in the process of getting back on track after being derailed by the Chinese balloon incident. Blinken said China will be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. SCMP
- The ECB will probably need to raise borrowing costs more, though the bulk of tightening is already done, according to Governing Council member Madis Muller. BBG
- Ukrainian troops, on the defensive for four months, will launch a long-awaited counterassault “very soon” now that Russia’s huge winter offensive is losing steam without taking Bakhmut, Ukraine’s top ground forces commander said on Thursday. RTRS
- Swiss financial regulator Finma has defended its decision to wipe out a huge swath of risky subordinated bonds as part of the CS rescue deal. In its first statement on the deal since the weekend, Finma said that all the contractual and legal obligations had been met for it to act unilaterally given the urgency of the situation. “On Sunday, a solution was found to protect clients, the financial centr and the markets,” said Finma’s chief executive Urban Angehrn. “In this context, it is important that Credit Suisse’s banking business continues to function smoothly and without interruption.” FT
- Following the Fed, the BOE will probably continue its quickest series of rate increases in three decades with a 25-bp hike to 4.25%. The SNB raised rates by 50 bps and signaled more to come as it resumed its inflation fight just days after the downfall of Credit Suisse. Norges Bank raised by 25 bps to 3%, as expected, and said it will tighten further in May. BBG
- Freight companies are dialing back expectations that demand will recover strongly in the second half of the year amid growing economic uncertainty and signs retailers are growing more guarded about placing big orders in 2023. WSJ
- OPEC+ is unlikely to take action on production despite the recent slump in prices as they attribute most of the volatility to financial speculation, not fundamentals. RTRS
- The SEC has told Coinbase that it plans to take enforcement action against the company, escalating its crackdown on digital-currency firms by targeting the biggest U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase said Wednesday. WSJ
- The Swiss National Bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points and signaled more to come as it resumed its inflation fight just days after the downfall of the country’s second- biggest bank became the epicenter of global financial turmoil: BBG
- Norway’s central bank raised its key interest rate to the highest level since 2009 and signaled further tightening after higher price pressure from a weaker-than-forecast krone outweighed concerns about global banking turbulence: BBG
- Wall Street banks and European rivals are undoing de facto hiring freezes after Credit Suisse’s emergency rescue by UBS, unable to resist the lure of top talent available at a discount: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed with price action choppy as markets digested the FOMC where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike and maintained its terminal rate view but dropped its reference regarding expectations that ‘ongoing’ rate hikes will be appropriate. ASX 200 declined amid the uninspired mood across most industries with underperformance in tech and mining. Nikkei 225 was contained by weakness in financials and after Japan maintained the overall assessment of the economy but cut the assessment on corporate profits and production for the first time since April 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. swung between gains and losses with optimism in Hong Kong following earnings releases from Orient Overseas International and Tencent whereby the advances in the latter inspired its tech peers, although participants also digested a rate hike by the HKMA which moved in lockstep with the Fed.
Top Asian News
- HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, which is in lockstep with the Fed.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said inflation is high and widespread because strong demand outstripped supply, while he added that they are incredibly determined to get inflation and inflation expectations back to the target. Furthermore, Conway expects monetary policy tightening to cause the New Zealand economy to enter a mild recession later this year as demand slows, as well as noted that the OCR is now comfortably above neutral and having the desired contractionary effect, according to Reuters.
European bourses began the session mixed/flat, but have since dipped more convincingly into negative territory with newsflow focused on hawkish Central Bank action post-Fed thus far. Once again, the FTSE 100 is lagging its peers as focus remains firmly on the upcoming BoE announcement, FTSE 100 -1.0%. Stateside, futures are firmer though remain shy of Wednesday’s best levels and have most recently eased off the sessions peak given the above action, ES +0.4%. Citi cuts their Stoxx 600 end-2023 forecast to 445 (prev. 475); FTSE 100 cut to 7600 (prev. 8000); downgrades Banks to Neutral (prev. Overweight).
Top European News
- ECB’s Muller says inflation is a bigger problem than the increase in borrowing costs. Lions share of hikes are behind us; ECB is likely to increase rates by a little.
- ECB’s Stournaras says should not commit to any rates in advance.
- Italy is reportedly preparing a new package of measures worth some EUR 5bln to aid firms and families cope with energy bills, and could be unveiled next week, according to Reuters sources.
Central bank decisions
- SNB hikes by 50bps to 1.50% vs exp. 1.50% (prev. 1.00%); does not rule out further hikes; reiterates language around price stability and FX intervention. Further increased its inflation forecasts, with CPI now not seen dropping back into the 0-2% target band until Q2-2023 (prev. Q4-2023). Click here for full details, reaction & analysis.
- Norges Bank hikes by 25bps to 3.00% vs exp. 3.00% (prev. 2.75%); the policy rate will be raised further in May; decision unanimous. Rate path now implies an end-2023 rate of 3.60% (prev. 3.08%). Click here for full details, reaction & analysis.
- Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 13.75%, as expected, while it will remain vigilant and will assess if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a sufficiently long period of time will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation. BCB added that inflation expectations have shown additional deterioration, especially at longer horizons and they will not hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if the disinflationary process does not proceed as expected.
FX
- The USD remains on the back-foot after Wednesday’s FOMC, though the DXY is back towards a 102.44 high after briefly printing a fresh March low of 101.91.
- Action which supports peers across the board and features antipodeans outperforming after recent pressure, NZD leading and cognisant of RBNZ’s Conway emphasising that inflation remains high and widespread; NZD/USD and AUD/USD testing 0.63 and 0.6750 respectively.
- GBP is next best ahead of the BoE, Cable at a fresh March peak of 1.2343 with 25bp fully priced and a peak of around 4.45% (current 4.00%) implied.
- The single currency, EUR, is underpinned by the USD but with EUR/GBP pressure preventing any further appreciation; EUR/USD holding sub-1.09 while EUR/GBP near the 0.8832 low.
- Finally, CHF benefitted from the SNB’s hawkish-hike while the NOK is back to pre-release levels as expectations for a 50bp hike unwind while the hawkish repo path adjustments are factored in.
Fixed Income
- EGBs are underpinned with yields softer across the curve post-Fed while Gilts are closer to the unchanged mark pre-BoE, though the morning’s hawkish action has sparked a pullback from best levels.
- Bunds hold around 136.00 and the 10yr yield now back above 2.25% after dipping to a 2.22% low; modest upside was seen in Bunds following Germany leaving its Q2 issuance calendar unrevised vs the prelim. FY release.
- Stateside, USTs continue to derive support from Wednesday’s announcements; though, the yield curve has lifted marginally from the mid-week trough, but does remain lower overall with action most pronounced in the belly.
- German Q2 issuance calendar sees no changes vs the prelim. annual release.
Commodities
- Commodities are mixed, with the crude benchmarks attempting to pare back some of their overnight losses while metals glean support from the USD’s downside.
- Specifically, WTI and Brent are towards the lower-end of USD 69.91-70.79/bbl and USD 75.76-76.66/bbl parameters, though the benchmarks are holding above USD 70 and USD 76 respectively.
- Both precious and base metals are benefitting from the softer dollar; spot gold towards the upper-end of USD 1964-1983/oz parameters, just shy of Wednesday’s USD 1985/oz best with base metals supported but off best given the broader risk tone.
- Iran’s Finance Minister said Iran achieved its highest level of oil exports for at least two years last month, according to FT.
- Goldman Sachs said gold remains the best safe-haven asset for financial risks and raised its gold target to USD 2050/oz from 1950/oz, while it added that Chinese demand continues to surge across the commodity complex with oil demand topping 16mln bpd and it remains very positive on commodity prices with 12-month forecasted returns of 27.9% for S&P GSCI.
Geopolitics
- China’s military said it monitored and drove away a US destroyer which entered the South China Sea Paracel Islands, although the US Navy later said that the Chinese military’s statement is false regarding a US destroyer being expelled from the South China Sea.
- Taiwan’s Foreign Minister said President Tsai’s meeting with the US House Speaker is still being arranged, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Foreign Ministers agreed to meet soon to pave the way for the reopening of embassies, according to the Saudi state news agency.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov is to hold discussions with Iran’s top diplomat on March 29th in Moscow, according to Tass.
- US mulls opening Pacific defense pact with Britain and Australia to more countries, according to Semafor.
- US reportedly plans to send aging A-10 attack planes to the Middle East while shifting newer jets to Asia and Europe, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 197,000, prior 192,000
- March Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.68m
- 08:30: Feb. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.10, prior 0.23
- 08:30: 4Q Current Account Balance, est. -$213.7b, prior -$217.1b
- 10:00: Feb. New Home Sales, est. 650,000, prior 670,000
- Feb. New Home Sales MoM, est. -3.1%, prior 7.2%
- 11:00: March Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2, prior 0
DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap
In an FOMC meeting that went to script but perhaps leaned dovish, Mr Powell’s press conference was overshadowed by his predecessor’s (Yellen) simultaneous comments that a blanket guarantee of deposits had not been discussed or considered. It seems highly unlikely the US would let depositors take losses but maybe such a move won’t be done pre-emptively and would require future stress first. The reaction to her comments also highlighted the nervousness and fragility underpinning a big 2-day rally. The remarks led to a late slump in equities (S&P 500 -1.65% – all post Yellen) and big rally in bonds (2yr -23bps – more than half after Yellen) and distracted from a relative uneventful FOMC, even if there were nuances worth discussing.
Let’s look at the Fed first. They hiked interest rates a further 25bps to put the policy rate in a target range of 4.75-5.00%, while saying in the statement that “additional policy firming may be appropriate”. This replaced “ongoing increases in the target rate will be appropriate”. So a softening in language.
The pace and asset makeup of QT was unchanged as expected. The median dot plot projection showed fed funds ending 2023 at 5.1%, unchanged from December, and up by roughly one hike to 4.3% at the end of 2024. Despite the median remaining unchanged, there was some upward migration in the dot plot for 2023. In terms of economic projections, the Fed had Core PCE inflation up modestly both this year (3.6% from 3.5% in Jan) and next (2.6% from 2.5% in Jan), but saw risks as “broadly balanced” rather than “weighted to the upside” as we had seen last meeting. On the banking stress, the Fed’s statement noted that it is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”
At the press conference, Chair Powell opened with a statement on the banking sector first by saying that the US banking system is sound and that the Fed programs are “effectively meeting” liquidity needs while policymakers are closely monitoring the situation. He also noted that the events of the past week are likely to weigh on lending standards and slow the economy, which may in fact necessitate fewer rate hikes than thought before. Chair Powell noted that some officials considered a pause in the days leading up to the meeting, however in the end it was a unanimous vote to hike rates. The “pause” word sparked a front-end rally.
Our US economists have maintained their terminal rate view of 5.1% following another 25bp rate hike in May. They note there is elevated uncertainty around this modal outcome. Financial and credit conditions along with inflation data will be important to watch in the weeks ahead. See their FOMC review note here for more.
The S&P 500 went into the FOMC announcement about flat on the day (-0.04%), having traded in a 0.60% range through much of the US trading session. The initial statement saw a pop in sentiment, before stocks whipsawed through the Chair’s opening statement and peaked up around +0.9% on the day as he noted “disinflation is intact.” However, comments on credit conditions tightening further and rate cuts in 2023 not being the FOMC’s “baseline expectation” saw risk sentiment fall.
Roughly an hour prior to the close Chair Powell also acknowledged that the Fed was still open to further rate hikes if the data proves them necessary. At the same time, his predecessor, Treasury Secretary Yellen said to a Senate subcommittee hearing that, “I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits.” She also noted that it was not yet the time to discuss changing the FDIC insurance cap.
Risk sold off harder after this with the S&P falling over -1.5% over the last hour of trading to finish at the lows of the day at -1.65%. 493 of the index’s constituents were lower yesterday with Banks leading the late move lower. The KBW index closed down -4.70% on the back of significant regional bank losses once again led by First Republic (-15.5%), while the majors held up relatively better with JPM (-2.6%), C (-3.0%), and BAC (-3.3%) outperforming.
Fixed income markets saw more one way traffic with 10yr US Treasury yields -17.53bps lower on the day to 3.43% after being roughly unchanged around the European close and rallying though the FOMC statement and the risk-off move that followed. US 2yr yields were actually higher in the US morning before being unchanged just prior to the meeting and then rallying through the US afternoon to finish the day -23.0bps lower at 3.937% – just off the lows of the day. Following the meeting, fed futures are pricing in a 46% chance of a hike at the next meeting in May, and then roughly 70bps of cut by year-end despite the comments from Chair Powell. This morning in Asia, we are seeing a further steepening in the curve with 2yrs -6bps but 10yrs +1bps. 2s10s is now -44bps after being in the low -60s before the FOMC statement. See our rates strategists’ call and rationale for steepeners here for more on the forces around this trade.
So the mood completely changed in the last hour or so. Ahead of the Fed, European markets had actually continued to normalise following last week’s volatility. For instance, equities put in another steady performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.15%) posting a third consecutive advance. Sovereign bond yields also moved higher, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.6bps) at a one-week high of 2.328% as investors priced out the chances of an imminent pause in rate hikes from the ECB. In part, that was supported by a Bloomberg article later in the session, which reported that ECB officials were growing in confidence that they had withstood the current turmoil, whilst concern remained that inflation still needed tackling. When it came to banks however, the rally at the start of the week showed signs of petering out, with the STOXX Banks index coming down -0.69%, and UBS falling -3.71%.
Looking forward, central banks will remain in the spotlight today, with the Bank of England’s decision coming up at midday London time. Up until yesterday, market pricing had been more in the balance on whether they’d keep hiking or pause. But just after we went to press yesterday, there was a big upside surprise in the February CPI print. That showed an unexpected increase in the year-on-year measure to +10.4% (vs. +9.9% expected), and core CPI also rose to +6.2% (vs. +5.7% expected). Furthermore, that was faster than the BoE’s own staff projections too, with last month’s Monetary Policy Report predicting a +9.9% reading like the consensus.
On the back of that print, investors ratcheted up the probability of a 25bp hike today, with overnight index swaps currently placing a 91% probability on such a move. That echoes the view of our UK economist, who is also expecting a 25bp increase in the Bank Rate that would take it up to a post-2008 high of 4.25%. In his preview (link here), he sees a 6-3 vote split in favour of the 25bp hike, but the big question now will be what they indicate in the forward guidance, and whether they echo the Bank of Canada’s move in making a “conditional pause” more explicit.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning despite an overnight slump on Wall Street. US stock futures being notably higher is helping, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.45%) seeing mild gains. As I type, the Nikkei (-0.30%) as well as the KOSPI (-0.11%) are edging lower but the Hang Seng (+0.78%) is trading in the green after technology heavyweight Tencent yesterday reported better than expected quarterly revenues. Meanwhile, the CSI (+0.36%) is trading higher with the Shanghai Composite (-0.01%) swinging between gains and losses. In FX, the US dollar (as measured by the DXY index) remains under pressure, trading near a seven-week low of 102.105 on the prospect of less Fed tightening ahead.
In other news yesterday, UK MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Windsor Framework, which is the recently agreed adjustment to the Brexit deal’s arrangements for Northern Ireland. In the end the vote was 515-29 in favour, although the opponents included former PMs Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
To the day ahead now, and monetary policy decisions will include the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank. Data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, February’s new home sales, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity for March, and the Q4 current account balance. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the preliminary consumer confidence reading for March. Finally, EU leaders will gather in Brussels for a summit.
AND 2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
US futures firmer & DXY downbeat; fixed off-best after hawkish SNB/Norges action – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 12:56 PM
- European bourses are softer while US futures are firmer, but still shy of Wednesday’s best levels.
- USD remains on the backfoot after Wednesday’s FOMC, Antipodeans lead and GBP rises pre-BoE.
- CHF and NOK benefitted from 50bp and 25bp hikes respectively; EGBs remain underpinned but off best following the hawkish action.
- USTs remain firmer with yields lower across the curve but slightly above the mid-week trough.
- Commodities are mixed, with the crude benchmarks attempting to pare back some of their overnight losses while metals glean support from the USD’s downside.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that it is worthwhile for Congress to discuss changes to the FDIC deposit insurance and the Treasury is ready to work with lawmakers
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & New Home Sales, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Centeno, Knot, Muller & BoE’s Mann.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
BANKS
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that it is worthwhile for Congress to discuss changes to the FDIC deposit insurance and the Treasury is ready to work with lawmakers.
- FDIC is said to delay the bid deadline for Silicon Valley Private Bank with the bid deadline moved to Friday, while the FDIC expects to have an announcement of a decision on SVB this weekend, according to a spokesperson.
- JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon met with White House economic council chief Brainard during a pre-planned trip to Washington DC.
- FINMA, swiss regulator, provides information on writing down AT1: instructed Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) to completely write down AT1 instruments and to inform bondholders . Tier 2 bonds will not be written down. AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse contractually provide that they will be completely written down in a “viability event”, conditions were met as Credit Suisse received extraordinary liquidity assistance loans.
CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS
- SNB hikes by 50bps to 1.50% vs exp. 1.50% (prev. 1.00%); does not rule out further hikes; reiterates language around price stability and FX intervention. Further increased its inflation forecasts, with CPI now not seen dropping back into the 0-2% target band until Q2-2023 (prev. Q4-2023). Click here for full details, reaction & analysis.
- Norges Bank hikes by 25bps to 3.00% vs exp. 3.00% (prev. 2.75%); the policy rate will be raised further in May; decision unanimous. Rate path now implies an end-2023 rate of 3.60% (prev. 3.08%). Click here for full details, reaction & analysis.
- Click here for the BoE preview, due 12:00GMT/08:00EDT.
- Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 13.75%, as expected, while it will remain vigilant and will assess if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a sufficiently long period of time will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation. BCB added that inflation expectations have shown additional deterioration, especially at longer horizons and they will not hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if the disinflationary process does not proceed as expected.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses began the session mixed/flat, but have since dipped more convincingly into negative territory with newsflow focused on hawkish Central Bank action post-Fed thus far.
- Once again, the FTSE 100 is lagging its peers as focus remains firmly on the upcoming BoE announcement, FTSE 100 -1.0%.
- Stateside, futures are firmer though remain shy of Wednesday’s best levels and have most recently eased off the sessions peak given the above action, ES +0.4%.
- Citi cuts their Stoxx 600 end-2023 forecast to 445 (prev. 475); FTSE 100 cut to 7600 (prev. 8000); downgrades Banks to Neutral (prev. Overweight).
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- The USD remains on the back-foot after Wednesday’s FOMC, though the DXY is back towards a 102.44 high after briefly printing a fresh March low of 101.91.
- Action which supports peers across the board and features antipodeans outperforming after recent pressure, NZD leading and cognisant of RBNZ’s Conway emphasising that inflation remains high and widespread; NZD/USD and AUD/USD testing 0.63 and 0.6750 respectively.
- GBP is next best ahead of the BoE, Cable at a fresh March peak of 1.2343 with 25bp fully priced and a peak of around 4.45% (current 4.00%) implied.
- The single currency, EUR, is underpinned by the USD but with EUR/GBP pressure preventing any further appreciation; EUR/USD holding sub-1.09 while EUR/GBP near the 0.8832 low.
- Finally, CHF benefitted from the SNB’s hawkish-hike while the NOK is back to pre-release levels as expectations for a 50bp hike unwind while the hawkish repo path adjustments are factored in.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8709 vs exp. 6.8719 (prev. 6.8715)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- EGBs are underpinned with yields softer across the curve post-Fed while Gilts are closer to the unchanged mark pre-BoE, though the morning’s hawkish action has sparked a pullback from best levels.
- Bunds hold around 136.00 and the 10yr yield now back above 2.25% after dipping to a 2.22% low; modest upside was seen in Bunds following Germany leaving its Q2 issuance calendar unrevised vs the prelim. FY release.
- Stateside, USTs continue to derive support from Wednesday’s announcements; though, the yield curve has lifted marginally from the mid-week trough, but does remain lower overall with action most pronounced in the belly.
- German Q2 issuance calendar sees no changes vs the prelim. annual release.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Commodities are mixed, with the crude benchmarks attempting to pare back some of their overnight losses while metals glean support from the USD’s downside.
- Specifically, WTI and Brent are towards the lower-end of USD 69.91-70.79/bbl and USD 75.76-76.66/bbl parameters, though the benchmarks are holding above USD 70 and USD 76 respectively.
- Both precious and base metals are benefitting from the softer dollar; spot gold towards the upper-end of USD 1964-1983/oz parameters, just shy of Wednesday’s USD 1985/oz best with base metals supported but off best given the broader risk tone.
- Iran’s Finance Minister said Iran achieved its highest level of oil exports for at least two years last month, according to FT.
- Goldman Sachs said gold remains the best safe-haven asset for financial risks and raised its gold target to USD 2050/oz from 1950/oz, while it added that Chinese demand continues to surge across the commodity complex with oil demand topping 16mln bpd and it remains very positive on commodity prices with 12-month forecasted returns of 27.9% for S&P GSCI.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Muller says inflation is a bigger problem than the increase in borrowing costs. Lions share of hikes are behind us; ECB is likely to increase rates by a little.
- ECB’s Stournaras says should not commit to any rates in advance.
- Italy is reportedly preparing a new package of measures worth some EUR 5bln to aid firms and families cope with energy bills, and could be unveiled next week, according to Reuters sources.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- UBS no longer expects the Fed to raise rates in June; reduces its terminal rate forecast range to 5-5.25% from 5.25-5.5% previously.
GEOPOLITICS
- China’s military said it monitored and drove away a US destroyer which entered the South China Sea Paracel Islands, although the US Navy later said that the Chinese military’s statement is false regarding a US destroyer being expelled from the South China Sea.
- Taiwan’s Foreign Minister said President Tsai’s meeting with the US House Speaker is still being arranged, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Foreign Ministers agreed to meet soon to pave the way for the reopening of embassies, according to the Saudi state news agency.
- Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov is to hold discussions with Iran’s top diplomat on March 29th in Moscow, according to Tass.
- US mulls opening Pacific defense pact with Britain and Australia to more countries, according to Semafor.
- US reportedly plans to send aging A-10 attack planes to the Middle East while shifting newer jets to Asia and Europe, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is around the mid-point of circa. USD 1.5k parameters which remain well within the confines of Wednesday’s action.
- Coinbase (COIN) said it received a Wells notice from the US SEC on enforcement action alleging violation of federal securities laws and believes potential enforcement actions would relate to aspects of Co.’s spot market, staking service Coinbase Earn, Coinbase Prime and aspects of Coinbase Wallet, while potential civil action may seek injunctive relief, disgorgement and civil penalties, according to Reuters.
- Binance is charging fees for Bitcoin trading gains, according to WSJ.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy as markets digested the FOMC where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike and maintained its terminal rate view but dropped its reference regarding expectations that ‘ongoing’ rate hikes will be appropriate.
- ASX 200 declined amid the uninspired mood across most industries with underperformance in tech and mining.
- Nikkei 225 was contained by weakness in financials and after Japan maintained the overall assessment of the economy but cut the assessment on corporate profits and production for the first time since April 2020.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. swung between gains and losses with optimism in Hong Kong following earnings releases from Orient Overseas International and Tencent whereby the advances in the latter inspired its tech peers, although participants also digested a rate hike by the HKMA which moved in lockstep with the Fed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, which is in lockstep with the Fed.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said inflation is high and widespread because strong demand outstripped supply, while he added that they are incredibly determined to get inflation and inflation expectations back to the target. Furthermore, Conway expects monetary policy tightening to cause the New Zealand economy to enter a mild recession later this year as demand slows, as well as noted that the OCR is now comfortably above neutral and having the desired contractionary effect, according to Reuters.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.90 PTS OR 0.64% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 162.12 PTS OR 2.95% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 47,08 PTS OR 0.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED down 0.67% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed up 6.8189//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN up TO 6.8169/ /Oil UP TO 71.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.84 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOWLEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/USA
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UK
BoE Hikes Rates 25bps As Expected, Re-Opens Door For Further Hikes
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 02:11 PM
Following yesterday’s disappointingly hot inflation prints, it was not a big surprise to markets that The Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates by 25bps this morning to 4.25%, the highest since 2008, and left the door open to further increases if inflation persists.
The 25bps hike is the smallest increase in rates since June.
Policy makers voted 7-2 for the hike – Tenreyro and Dhingra voted to keep rates unchanged.
Key remarks in the statement suggest a shift the market’s perspective that BoE was ready to ‘pause’.
“If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required,” minutes of the meeting released Thursday said, a guidance that’s in step with what the BOE said in February.
However, while inflation has “surprised significantly on the upside,” it still expects price growth to cool sharply in the coming months.
“The stronger domestic and global outlook for demand was also being driven by factors over and above the weaker path of energy prices,” minutes of the meeting said.
Cable is very modestly higher on the day with little to no reaction post-statement, Gilt yields are drifting modestly lower.
end
CREDIT SUISSE
Credit Suisse Employees Flood Headhunters Looking For New Jobs
Bankers from the failed Credit Suisse Group AG are in the midst of creating a deluge for headhunters and job recruiters ahead of the banks takeover by UBS, according to a new Bloomberg report.
“Anxious Credit Suisse staff” have created a flood of calls as they look for new jobs, the report says, with one firm in Singapore claiming it took in questions from 30 private bankers from Credit Suisse on Monday of this week alone.
Another firm, focused just on managing director hires, said it has received similar interest since last Friday.
The bank has about 5,500 employees in London, leading one job search firm to be receiving calls all throughout last week, especially from bankers in the equities division, where there’s the most overlap with new parent company UBS.
In New York, “several thousand people at Credit Suisse had been hoping to join Credit Suisse First Boston”, one headhunter told Bloomberg. Others have turned their focus to trying to join UBS.
But UBS doesn’t seem keen to that plan, according to a second report:
UBS executives have told their Credit Suisse counterparts that they prefer selectively bolstering their own investment bank while dumping the riskier operations, the people said, asking for anonymity because the review has just begun and no final decisions have been made. In initial talks, the acquiring bank indicated little interest in continuing the planned effort for a CS First Boston carveout that would create a new competitor, the people said.
All this means Klein’s dream of leading a new investment bank under the revived CS First Boston brand looks increasingly unlikely. Still, some Credit Suisse staff are holding out hope that Klein and banking chief David Miller can line up an alternative plan, the people said. Some executives have reached out to potential suitors for the investment bank including Japan’s Mizuho Financial Group Inc. to generate interest that they could then pitch to UBS, the people said.
Michael Nelson, managing director at recruitment firm Quest Group in New York, said: “If they aren’t going to CSFB they will have to be emigrated into UBS fixed-income, which is a much smaller business than Credit Suisse. My guess is they will dismiss them and turn them out onto the street.”
The alarm amongst current employees during the midst of Credit Suisse’s “emergency rescue” is high. The deluge of job seekers ironically comes at a time when most banks – and businesses in most other industries – are in the process of reducing their staffs.
One Singapore-based Credit Suisse spokeswoman concluded: “We are encouraging colleagues to continue to the best of their abilities against a difficult backdrop. Ultimately, we will do everything we can to ensure an orderly transition and to serve our clients as best as possible.”
END
SWITZERLAND
Swiss Defend $17BN AT1 Bond Wipeout In Credit Suisse Deal As Furious Creditors Including David Tepper Vow To Sue Switzerland
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 03:03 PM
Amid the justifiably shocked outcry from Credit Suisse junior debtors, who saw their entire AT1 debt tranche wiped out before the equity was fully impaired, violating every conventional liquidation waterfall, on Thursday Swiss financial regulator Finma has defended its decision to wipe out a huge swath of risky subordinated bonds as part of the Credit Suisse rescue deal even as an army of bondholders is preparing to sue the Swiss government.
Sunday’s shocking bail-in, which rendered $17BN of investments worthless, has become one of the most controversial elements of the shotgun marriage between Credit Suisse and its larger rival, UBS, brokered by Swiss authorities. Just hours after the deal was announced, other large market regulators began to distance themselves from the decision, fearful that it would endanger banks’ ability to raise capital in the future.
Meanwhile, enraged bondholders have pledged to sue the Swiss government and Finma over the matter the FT reported.
In its first statement on the deal since the weekend, Finma said on Thursday that all the contractual and legal obligations had been met for it to act unilaterally given the urgency of the situation.
“On Sunday, a solution was found to protect clients, the financial centre and the markets,” said Finma’s chief executive Urban Angehrn. “In this context, it is important that Credit Suisse’s banking business continues to function smoothly and without interruption.”
Speaking to the press on Thursday, Swiss National Bank chair Thomas Jordan argued that the purchase by UBS had been the only option for Credit Suisse, saying that a takeover of the bank by the government and stabilization of it in a process known as resolution would have risked a systemic crisis.
“Resolution in theory is possible under normal circumstances, but we were in an extremely fragile environment with enormous nervousness in financial markets in general,” said Jordan. “Resolution in those circumstances would have triggered a bigger financial crisis, not just in Switzerland but globally.”
“[It] would not have worked to stabilize the situation but, on the contrary, created enormous uncertainty . . . It was clear that we should avoid it if there was any other possibility.”
None of that explains why the decision was taken to preserves CHF3.25BN in value for CS shareholders – who would nominally be subordinated to any bondholders in the capital structure – even as junior creditors were wiped out.
That said, the additional tier 1 (AT1) bonds in question were warned as they contained explicit contractual language that they would be “completely written down in a ‘viability event’ in particular if extraordinary government support is granted”, Finma said. This allowed the regulator to prioritise equity holders ahead of AT1 holders. Furthermore, when AT1s were created as a hybrid debt instrument after the financial crash of 2008, their whole purpose was to give banks greater capital flexibility in the event of crises, and for the bonds to be bailed in in case of need.
Meanwhile, the government’s intervention to bail out the combined UBS-CS entity – because if Credit Suisse had gone under, UBS was certainly next – is undisputable: as part of the acquisition deal by UBS, the combined bank will receive CHF9BN of government guarantees and a CHF100bn liquidity lifeline from the SNB. An additional emergency government ordinance issued by Bern on Sunday had further confirmed the power to take decisions over elements of a bank’s capital structure in Swiss law, Finma said.
“[The] instruments in Switzerland are designed in such a way that they are written down or converted into [equity] before the equity capital of the bank concerned is completely used up or written down,” it said, pointing out that the bonds were designed for the use of sophisticated institutional investors because of their risky hybrid nature.
None of that however has helped ease the anger of bondholders who over one weekend saw their entire investment wiped out. Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan and Pallas Partners are among the law firms representing bondholders that have pledged to fight the Swiss decision. Quinn hosted a call on Wednesday joined by more than 750 participants.
Partner Richard East told the Financial Times the deal was “a resolution dressed up as a merger” and pointed to statements by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which distanced themselves from the Swiss approach.
“You know something has gone wrong when other regulators come and politely point out that in a resolution [they] would have respected ordinary priorities,” he said.
“If this is left to stand, how can you trust any debt security issued in Switzerland, or for that matter wider Europe, if governments can just change laws after the fact,” David Tepper, the billionaire founder of Appaloosa Management, told the Financial Times. “Contracts are made to be honored.”
Tepper is among the most successful investors in troubled financial companies, famously making billions of dollars on a 2009 wager that US banks would not be nationalised during the last financial crisis. Appaloosa had bought a range of Credit Suisse’s senior and junior debt as the bank descended into chaos.
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay, which held Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, said Switzerland was “looking more like a banana republic”. His Financial Capital Bond fund is down 12.2 per cent this month.
No matter how the lawsuits turn out, however, one thing is certain: Swiss banking as an industry that thrived and prospered for centuries, is effectively over and nobody will voluntarily either deposit or invest in Swiss banks after this catastrophically bundled government intervention. For the sake of what’s left of the Swiss economy, we can only hope that the cheese and chocolate industries are not in need of bailouts.
END
POLAND/RUSSIA
5.RUSSIA//UKRAINE//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
/
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//
THE COVID AND SPIKE DETOX FAUCI DOESN’T WANT YOU TO KNOW ABOUT!
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
While Fauci was lining the pockets of big pharma peddling dangerous and experimental mRNA vaccines, Dr. Peter McCullough has been hard at work determining safe, scientific ways to combat spike protein effects.
As the nation’s preeminent cardiologist, and one of the most trusted medical voices during the pandemic, Dr. McCullough is dedicated to determining what are – and what are not – effective ways to overcome COVID19 and COVID19 vaccine injuries.
And now, this research is bearing fruits.
The ingredient that Fauci and big pharma don’t want you to know about is – Nattokinase. Nattokinase is one of the key ingredients in The Wellness Company’s Spike Support formula.
In recent articles, Dr. McCullough highlighted the safety of nattokinase in counteracting spike protein and potential cardiovascular damage:
“Approximately 15% of Americans who took a COVID-19 vaccine have some new medical illness and regret the shot. Many are looking to nattokinase in formulations of Spike protein support supplements.
“Chen et al reviewed human studies before the pandemic on the use of nattokinase with this introduction: ‘Natto, a cheese-like food made of soybeans fermented with Bacillus subtilis, has been consumed as a traditional food in Asian countries for more than 2000 years. Natto consumption is believed to be a significant contributor to the longevity of the Japanese population. Recent studies demonstrated that a high natto intake was associated with decreased risk of total cardiovascular disease mortality and, in particular, a decreased risk of mortality from ischaemic heart diseases. Before the 1980s, very little was known about the mechanism by which natto consumption led to overall cardiovascular health. In 1987, Sumi et al discovered that natto contained a potent fibrinolytic enzyme called nattokinase. Since then, a considerable amount of NK research has been performed on NK in Japan, Korea, China, and the United States, and these studies confirmed that NK, an alkaline protease of 275 amino acid residues with a molecular weight of approximately 28 kDa, is the most active ingredient of natto and is responsible for many favourable effects on cardiovascular health. First, nattokinase has potent fibrinolytic/antithrombotic activity. In addition, in both animal and human studies, NK also has an antihypertensive, anti-atherosclerotic, lipid-lowering, antiplatelet/anticoagulant, and neuroprotective actions…The most unique feature of nattokinase is that, as a single compound, it possesses multiple cardiovascular disease preventative and alleviating pharmacologic effects (namely, antithrombotic, antihypertensive, anticoagulant, anti-atherosclerotic, and neuroprotective effects). There are no other drugs or drug candidates with multiple pharmacologic properties similar to nattokinase. In addition, nattokinase is a natural product that can be administered orally, has a proven safety profile, is economical to use, and provides distinct advantages over other pharmaceutical products.’
“In summary this review is reassuring that the ever-increasing use of nattokinase in post-COVID-19 and after COVID-19 vaccine injuries is safe and reasonably well tolerated. There may be additional benefits on the cardiovascular system.”
If you or someone you love would like to try nattokinase, Dr. Peter McCullough and his team of doctors on the Chief Medical Board of The Wellness Company designed a non-GMO “Spike Support Formula” that contains nattokinase plus other extracts.
In The Wellness Company’s Spike Support Formula you will find:
- Nattokinase (dissolves spike protein)
- Selenium (aids in helping the body repair itself and recover)
- Dandelion root (acts as a detoxifying agent supporting better liver function)
- Black sativa extract (may facilitate cellular repair)
- Green tea extract (provides added defenses at the cellular level through scavenging for free radicals)
- Irish sea moss (could help rebuild damaged tissue and muscle)
GLOBAL ISSUES:
Dr. Aseem Malhotra & Dr. Paul Alexander discuss COVID mRNA vaccine spike protein risk to the heart, evidence based medicine, advocacy in South Africa against COVID shot, pilots with silent myocarditis
Malhotra & Alexander discuss ‘mature minors’ with doctors bypassing parental consent, pilots suffering cardiac arrest in flight and the rise in teenagers needing defibrillation in school.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 23 |
SOURCE:
Dr. Aseem Malhotra and Dr. Paul Elias Alexander discuss COVID mRNA vaccine spike protein risk to the heart, evidence based medicine, advocacy in South Africa warning against the COVID shot, mature minors with doctors bypassing parental consent, pilots suffering cardiac arrest in flight and the rise in teenagers needing defibrillation in school.
end
are we allowed to even ask? did he die of silent myocarditis? should we know his vaccine status? is this another case of ‘DIED SUDDENLY’?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 22 |
SOURCE:
My sense:
I think that unless we are told that he did not take the shot (s), then vaccine as cause must be on the table. It is very difficult for a 35 year old healthy person to suddenly just die. There is just too much of this to not be suspicious of the death shot. These mRNA technology gene shots should have never ever been brought in the first place and they failed out of the gate and the mRNA and LNP technologies were always toxic and dangerous. We pay the price now and I fear Angel just did.
end
END
SLAY NEWS//
VACCINE IMPACT
| SLAY NEWS |
VACCINE IMPACT//
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
What A Mess
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 04:17 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
I start the Global Daily today with the concluding comment to our Fed-watcher Philip Marey’s post-FOMC note titled ‘Credit Tightening’:
“A final observation. The Fed continues to stumble its way through the fight against inflation. First they tried to explain inflation away by claiming it was transitory. Consequently, they were late in starting the hiking cycle. Now that they are finally approaching positive territory for the real federal funds rate, they are close to ending the hiking cycle and leaving the rest of the fight against inflation to credit tightening by the banks. Because the Fed in its regulatory role failed to prevent the recent banking turmoil. Failing as a central bank on both fronts, so now it’s up to the banking sector to get inflation under control? What a mess.”
Except it’s even worse than that. The Fed hiked 25bps and shifted language such that Philip now sees only one more 25bps step in May. So, closer to a pause. Yet, as I kept saying a few months ago, this is ‘the pause that doesn’t refresh’. Indeed, the 2024 median dot plot was increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, and those cuts were stressed as contingent on inflation coming down, when the UK yesterday showed CPI is quite capable of suddenly surprising to the upside again.
Moreover, while Fed Chair Powell was underlining that the US banking system is safe and sound, Treasury Secretary Yellen –who doing Powell‘s job in 2017 told us there would not be another financial crisis “in my lifetime”– was telling markets the FDIC would not extend deposit insurance, increasing the risks of outflows and credit tightening. It would be nice if Powell and Yellen coordinated their policies rather than working in opposite directions, as yesterday, and over QT vs. the TGA.
On the credit tightening front, plucked from FinTwit: “This was the first week of [Citi credit card] data following the disruption within the financial sector, and we were curious if it might have had an impact on the consumer. It sure did….[seeing the] biggest decline in total retail spending .. since the pandemic began (April 2020).” If that trend continues, pressures for greater action, and institutional coordination, will only build.
On which, if you think what we have now is a mess, try the Bloomberg long-read about coming paradigm-shifts in banking and central-banking: ‘Finance is going back to the age of mercantilism’. It makes arguments regular readers of the Global Daily will immediately recognise, is of juicy quotes, and worth reading in full, but a summary runs:
“Since the history of financial regulation is a history of crisis management, it is inevitable the current chaos in the financial sector will bring forth new rules designed to prevent a repeat. Already, there is a debate on whether there is a better way to govern banks. On one side are those who think depositors should be protected even more fully; on the other are those who say bailing banks out leads to moral hazard.
There is some optimism that the rule changes may not be as dramatic as after the crisis of 2008, mostly because banks have much more capital now. But, as John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge point out, regulators are also operating against a very different global backdrop. In 2008, governments everywhere were committed to a liberal finance system. Now the world’s economy is breaking up into competitive regional blocs, and political rhetoric has shifted toward creating national champions and directing consumers toward local providers. The idea of finance as an arm of the state is back.
The post-crisis restructuring this time will likely reflect this new mindset: a mercantilist form of finance, in line with the statist policies of modern geopolitics. Already, banks are becoming more intertwined with governments, which in turn are picking winners and trying to back the industries of the future. Politicians welcome this because it increases their control over the economy.”
Consider, hypothetically, what that implies for rates. In 2018’s deep dive into the economic strategy of Europe’s Great Powers, I argued the country with the lowest cost of borrowing emerged the winner. That’s true if Great Power struggle-relevant production is funded by it: but not if commodity bubbles or consumer appetites are. Moreover, if a rival mercantilist bloc leans on commodities as an anchor (as Brazil’s President Lula heads to Beijing on March 28 with 240 business representatives), then the risk is that US rates need to be higher, not lower, as a defence or offence. Of course, there would have to be credit exceptions for key Great Power sectors (‘Pentagon Creates Cell to Oversee Expansion of Weapon Production Lines’): so we end up with ‘rate hikes and acronyms’ – which, like mercantilism, is the historical norm, not neoliberalism.
Of course, one can push back:
- In the US, Senator Warren tweets: “The Fed under Chair Powell made a mistake not pausing its extreme interest rate hikes. I’ve warned for months that the Fed’s current path risks throwing millions of Americans out of work. We have many tools to fight inflation without pushing the economy off a cliff.” Such as…? (And see the reply to her Tweet immediately below.)
- NBC news wails ‘TikTok ban would be ‘a slap in the face’ to young Democratic voters, activists warn: Gen Z voters lean overwhelmingly Democratic, but some Democrats warn they’ll stay home if the White House bans their favourite app’. Expensive lobbying efforts are getting results – but too little too late?
- In Germany, Handelsblatt reports Deutsche Telekom has been helping Huawei circumvent US sanctions after Deutsche Bahn opted for Huawei for their train control system. Meanwhile, a Bundestag report says at the present rate of rearmament, it will take Germany until 2073 to achieve the shift to military preparedness it pledged in 2022. In short, there may be an extra D –Deutschland– missing from the recent CSIS ‘Deny, Deflect, Deter’ report on China – though the tech export controls flagged yesterday do suggest mercantilism, not Merkelcantilism.
No matter what kind a mess you think the Fed is in today, those looking at things from a ‘Grand Strategy’ perspective are even more worried.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0885 UP .0016
USA/ YEN 131.06 DOWN 0.134NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2319 UP 0.0042
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3654 DOWN .0066 (CDN DOLLAR UP 66 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 20.90 PTS OR 0.64%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 162.12PTS OR 2.98%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN.67% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLYGREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 162,12PTS OR 2.98%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.90 PTS OR 0.64%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .67%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 47.00 PTS OR 0.17%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1984.35
silver:$23.07
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.84 DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.053% DOWN 17 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.312% DOWN 0 AND 9..//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.253// DOWN 12 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.058DOWN 12 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2085 DOWN 12BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.08867UP 0.0018 or 18 basis points//
USA/Japan: 131.06 DOWN 0.134 OR YEN UP 13 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2319 UP .0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0066 OR 66 BASIS pts to 1.3654
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.8189)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8166
TURKISH LIRA: 19.05 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.312…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.470% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.734 UP 4 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 3.9095 DOWN 7 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 101.84 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your 10 30 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 45.36 PTS OR 0.60%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 11.79OINTS OR 0.06%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 8.64 PTS OR 0.12%
Spain IBEX DOWN 26.50 POINTS OR 2.70%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 16.02 PTS OR 0.06%
WTI Oil price 71,13 12: EST
Brent Oil: 76,84 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWNTO: 76.00/ ROUBLE UP 1 AND 05/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2085
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.404 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0832 DOWN 0.0033 OR 33 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2286 UP .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.38288% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 130.88 DOWN 0.311///YEN up 31 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3714 DOWN .9996(CDN dollar, up 6 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.47
Brent OIL: 75.42
USA 10 yr bond yield down 7 BASIS pts to 3.432%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 3.704%
USA 2 YR BOND: down 15 PTS AT 3.8288%
USA dollar index: 102.824 up 27 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.03
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.600UP 01 AND 5//100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 75.14PTS OR 0.23%
NASDAQ 100 UP 162.08 PTS OR 1.29%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.61up .35 PTS (1.57%
GLD: $185.74 up 2.30 OR 1.25%
SLV/ $21..28 up 0.18 OR 0.85%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Markets To Yellen: ‘F**k Off’
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 10:01 PM
“Where’s Janet!?”
Remember this…
Deleted paragraph from March 22:
“As I said last week, the US banking system is sound. The federal government’s recent actions have demonstrated our resolute commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors’ savings remain safe.”
New paragraph on March 23:
“As I have said, we have used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion. And they are tools we could use again. The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe. Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”
But she removed the “US banking system is sound”, sparking total chaos. (Bear in mind, as we detailed earlier, that ‘the math just doesn’t work’ for any industry-wide deposit insurance scheme, so what is she going to say?)
Banks saw some hope-filled pre-market gains battered lower with regional banks suffering most. Yellen’s changed remarks sparked a brief recovery, but that didn’t last long as bank stocks tumbled back towards their lows…
FFWM (First Foundation), PACW, ZION, KEY and FRC dominated the downturn (with Yellen’s attempt to save the day failed)…
European bank CDS (5Y) have generally narrowed somewhat since the CS debacle, we do note that short-dated CDS (more used for counterparty risk management among derivatives traders) have not declined with Deutsche Bank remaining extremely high…
Source: Bloomberg
What started off as a relief-rally overnight, with multiple CNBC anchors sighing comfortably that the ‘worst must be over and that the ‘market just needed time to digest how dovish Powell was’; ended an utter shit-show.
Nasdaq, S&P and The Dow all ramped after the US cash open, erasing the post-Powell losses. But that was all she wrote and as Europe closed, everything everywhere went just a little bit turbo as stocks collapsed below yesterday’s lows. The last 30 mins saw a bounce as 0DTE traders unwound earlier negative delta flows at a profit and the S&P bounced off technical support, but overall, all the US majors remain lower than pre-Powell/Yellen levels (Nasdaq the least ugly horse in the glue factory while Small Caps ended below yesterday’s lows)…
It seems pretty clear the market wants to test Yellen and Powell to see if they will step up and bailout the next bank that goes boom in the night.
S&P broke back below its 100- and 200-DMA (after trying to tag its 50-DMA on the morning ramp), then bounced off its 200DMA, back up to its 100DMA… a very technical day…
CRE/Office REITs were hammered again today (‘Big Short 3.0 doing well since we issued on March 9th)…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets were ugly today with HYG getting hit hard…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were more mixed today with the long-end notably underperforming and short-end ripping lower in yield. After Yellen’s remarks, yields extended lower (30Y +1bps, 2Y -17bps). On the week, all yields are lower now except 30Y…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields tumbled back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve saw a major steepening today with 5s30s uninverting…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, STIRs drifted dovishly with December now pricing in rates 90bps below current levels…
Source: Bloomberg
The odds of a 25bps hike in May have tumbled to 26%…
Source: Bloomberg
Which leaves the Fed’s expected rate-trajectory dramatically more dovish than the ECB’s…
And the market’s expectation dramatically more dovish than The Fed’s DotPlots…
The dollar fell for the 6th straight day (10 of the last 11 days), bouncing a little intraday off 7-week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ripped back up towards $29,000, erasing all of yesterday’s losses, but then faded back after Yellen’s revised remarks…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back above $2000…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rollercoastered again today, with WTI rallying above $71 into the European close and then dumping back down to a $69 handle…
Finally, we note it is the three-year anniversary of the COVID lockdown lows today. Bitcoin is the biggest gainer since that date, bonds are the ugliest of all with the dollar basically unchanged and gold and stocks up handsomely…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, it appears alternative currencies are gaining favor since the global financial system started showing cracks again…
Gold has soared over the last two weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
And Bitcoin has dominated everything…
Source: Bloomberg
No wonder the Dems have made crypto the new ‘boogeyman’.
i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
Fed Balance Sheet Surges By Another $100BN Amid Bank Runs As Foreign Repos Soar By Record And Cash Floods Into Reverse Repo, Money Markets
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 11:22 PM
The much awaited release of the Fed’s latest weekly balance sheet update was released at exactly 4:30pm, and not surprisingly, it showed that in the past week the bank bailout continued if at a less torrid pace.
As of March 22, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by $94.5 billion to $8.734 trillion from $8.639 trillion which in turn was a $297 billion increase from the previous week when the bank crisis started. In total, the Fed’s balance sheet hs increased by $393 billion in the past two weeks, and is fast approaching its all time high of $8.95 trillion one year ago, when QT kicked in and shrank the Fed’s assets by $600 billion.
Looking at the actual reserve components that were provided by the Fed, we find that Fed backstopped facility borrowings were roughly flat around $164 billion, but the composition shifted, as usage of the Discount Window dropped by $42 billion to $110 billion…
… which however was offset almost dollar for dollar by a $42.6 billion increase in usage of the Fed’s brand new Bank Term Funding Program, or BTFP.
Meanwhile, other credit extensions – consisting of Fed loans to bridge banks established by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to resolve SVB and Signature Bank – rose to $179.8 billion from $142.8 billion the previous week.
Of course, the above only accounted for just under $40BN in reserves, what was the delta? The answer: a record $60 billion in foreign official Repo, which means that the offshore scramble for dollars is alive and well and someone really needed access to USD. That someone is likely either Credit Suisse or UBS, or some SPV of the Swiss National Bank; of course, we don’t know for sure since none of the counterparties are named.
Which is why while the Fed’s USD liquidity swaps only rose to a paltry $587 million in the past week…
… the real number to focus on is the amount of foreign repo usage, which is where the foreign USD really made itself apparent.
Meanwhile, with QT still laughably taking place in the background, the Fed’s holdings of TSYs dropped by $3.5 billion to $7.937 trillion.
The question is whether after emergency Fed facilities rose by another $100 billion – a rough proxy of how much deposit drain took place in the week – if this marks the peak for the credit crisis. And while that may have been true until yesterday, it is none other than Janet Yellen herself who sent bank stocks plunging in the past 48 hours with her amateurish comments. In any case, this means that we will need to wait one more week until the next H.4.1 statement to see if the various emergency Fed facilities are declining or if they continue to rise and will eventually be replaced with permanent reserve facilities such as QE, similar to what happened after the 2008 financial crisis.
Finally, while the Fed is flooding the system with emergency reserves, those wondering where these are going should look at the Fed’s reverse repo facility which has soared, as well as money market funds which have been scooping up cash recently, fueled in large part by depositors pulling their money away from US banks.
The amount of money parked at money-market funds climbed to a fresh record in the week through March 22 as banking concerns continued to rock global markets. According to data from the Investment Company Institute, about $117.4 billion poured into US money-market funds in the week through March 22, bringing total assets up to an unprecedented $5.132 trillion, versus the $5.01 trillion in the week to March 15. Inflows over the past two weeks totaled more than $238 billion.
Initially much of that flow was driven by more attractive rates, but concern about the steadiness of some smaller lenders helped boost the trend this month.
“This is consistent with ongoing deposit flight from the banking system as depositors indirectly invest their cash into government securities via money funds and shun bank credit,” said TD Securities strategist Gennadiy Goldberg. “This answers the question of ‘where is the money going once it leaves the banking system?”’
As a result, more cash may remain parked at the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility amid a lack of short-end supply due to ongoing Treasury bill paydowns and Federal Home Loan Banks normalizing issuance. On Thursday, some 99 counterparties parked $2.234 trillion at the RRP, down from $2.28 trillion the prior session, but just shy of 2023 highs.
Finally, looking at our favorite chart showing total reserves vs US market cap, it shows that with reserves rising to $3.425 trillion, the highest since April 2022, US stocks are now badly lagging where the amount of reserves would have them be, and once banks (hopefully) stop falling, we expect a torrid face ripper of a rally.
II) USA DATA
Jobless Claims Data Continues To Ignore The Fed
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 02:38 PM
Initial jobless claims dropped (again) last week to 191k (fewer than expected) and once again standing in the face of anecdotal evidence of waves of headlines of mass layoffs.
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims remained below 1.7mm.
California and Illinois saw the biggest weekly drop in claims while Indiana and Massachusetts saw the largest increase…
Assuming a 3mo lag between monetary policy and its effect on the economy, we can comfortably claim that something’s broken…
Source: Bloomberg
Maybe what we really need is a banking crisis to collapse credit?
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
“We Are Headed For Another Train Wreck”: Bill Ackman Blames Janet Yellen For Restarting The Bank Run
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 03:20 AM
Yesterday morning we joked that every time Janet Yellen opens her mouth, stocks dump.
Well, it wasn’t a joke, and as we repeatedly noted today, while Jerome Powell was busting his ass to prevent a violent market reaction – in either direction – to his “most important Fed decision and presser of 2023”, the Treasury Secretary, with all the grace of a senile 76-year-old elephant in a China market, uttered the phrase…
- YELLEN: NOT CONSIDERING BROAD INCREASE IN DEPOSIT INSURANCE
… and the rest was silence… or rather selling.
Commenting on our chart, Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore noted it was Yellen who was “to blame for the stock slump”, pointing out that “the pessimistic turn in US stocks began within a minute of Janet Yellen starting to speak.”
The S&P 500 rose almost 1% in the first 47 minutes after the Fed decision. Powell wasn’t the problem either: the index was 0.6% higher in the first 17 minutes after his press conference started.
Why am I picking that exact timing of 2:47pm NY time? Because that is the minute Yellen started speaking at the Senate panel hearing. The high for the S&P 500 was 2:48pm NY time and it fell more than 2.5% over the subsequent 72 minutes. Good effort.
Picking up on this, Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield writes that banking stocks globally are set to underperform for longer after Janet Yellen pushed back against giving deposit insurance without working with lawmakers. He adds that “to an aggressive trader this sounds like an invitation to keep shorting bank stocks — at least until the tone changes into broader support and is less focused on specific bank situations.” Earlier, we addressed that too:
Looking ahead, Cranfield warns that US financials are likely to be the most vulnerable as they are the epicenter of the debate. Although European or Asian banking names may outperform US peers, that won’t be much consolation for investors as most financial sector indexes may be on a downward path.
The KBW bank index has tumbled from its highs seen in early February, but still has a way to go before it reaches the pandemic-nadir in 2020. Traders smell an opening for a big trade and that will fuel more downside. Probably until Yellen blinks.
And if Bill Ackman is right, she will be doing a whole lot of blinking in days if not hours.Ackman crying in public
While we generally make fun of Ackman’s self-serving hot takes on twitter, today he was right when he accused Yellen of effectively restarting the small bank depositor run which according to JPMorgan has already seen $1.1 trillion in assets withdrawn from “vulnerable” banks. This is what Ackman tweeted:
Yesterday, @SecYellen made reassuring comments that led the market and depositors to believe that all deposits were now implicitly guaranteed. That coupled with a leak suggesting that @USTreasury, @FDICgov and @SecYellen were looking for a way to guarantee all deposits reassured the banking sector and depositors.
This afternoon, @SecYellen walked back yesterday’s implicit support for small banks and depositors, while making it explicit that systemwide deposit guarantees were not being considered.
We have gone from implicit support for depositors to @SecYellen explicit statement today that no guarantee is being considered with rates now being raised to 5%. 5% is a threshold that makes bank deposits that much less attractive. I would be surprised if deposit outflows don’t accelerate effective immediately.
Ackman concluded by repeating his ask: a comprehensive deposit guarantee on America’s $18 trillion in assets…
A temporary systemwide deposit guarantee is needed to stop the bleeding. The longer the uncertainty continues, the more permanent the damage is to the smaller banks, and the more difficult it will be to bring their customers back.
… but as we noted previously pointing out, you know, the math…
… absent bipartisan Congressional intervention – which is very much unlikely until the bank crisis gets much, much worse – this won’t happen and instead the Fed will continue putting out bank fire after bank fire – even as it keeps hiking to overcompensate for its “transitory inflation” idiocy from 2021, until the entire system burns down, something which Ackman’s follow-up tweet was also right about:
Consider recent events impact on the long-term cost of equity capital for non-systemically important banks where you can wake up one day as a shareholder or bondholder and your investment instantly goes to zero. When combined with the higher cost of debt and deposits due to rising rates, consider what the impact will be on lending rates and our economy.
The longer this banking crisis is allowed to continue, the greater the damage to smaller banks and their ability to access low-cost capital.
Trust and confidence are earned over many years, but can be wiped out in a few days. I fear we are heading for another a train wreck. Hopefully, our regulators will get this right.
Narrator: no, they won’t.
end
Distressed Debt Soars By 29%, Or $66 Billion, In One Week Amid Surge In Bankruptcies
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 12:55 PM
The cascade of defaulted regional US banks is blowing out the circulating inventory of distressed debt which expanded by about $65.9 billion last week as US insolvency courts saw six new, large bankruptcy filings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The heap of dollar-denominated corporate bonds and loans in the Americas trading at distressed levels rose to $295.4 billion in the week ended Friday, a 28.7% increase from $229.5 billion a week earlier, Bloomberg-compiled data show.Source: Bloomberg
Last week’s bankruptcy filings include the Chapter 11 petitions of sports broadcaster Diamond Sports Group as well as SVB Financial Group, the former parent company of Silicon Valley Bank.
In total, there were 48 large bankruptcy filings – those related to at least $50 million of liabilities – this year through March 20. That’s the highest since 2009, which saw 88 large cases through March 20, per Bloomberg-compiled data.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
“Totally Exculpatory”: Purported Cohen Letter To FEC Could Hobble Manhattan DA’s Trump Case
B
THURSDAY, MAR 23, 2023 – 04:55 AM
A letter purported to be from Michael Cohen’s attorney says that Cohen acted alone when he paid Stormy Daniels in 2016 – a revelation which could undercut Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s case against Donald Trump.
“In a private transaction in 2016, before the U.S. presidential election, Mr. Cohen used his own personal funds to facilitate a payment of $130,000 to Ms. Stephanie Clifford [Stormy Daniels],” reads the 2018 letter from Cohen attorney Stephen Ryan to the Federal Election Commission, which asserts that Trump was not involved in the hush payment to the former porn star.
“Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed Mr. Cohen for the payment directly or indirectly.”
Trump posted the letter on Truth Social on Wednesday evening, saying “Wow, look what was just found—A Letter from Cohen’s Lawyer to the Federal Election Commission,” adding “This is totally exculpatory, and must end the Manhattan District Attorney’s Witch Hunt, immediately.“
“Cohen admits that he did it himself. The D.A. should get on with prosecuting violent criminals, so people can walk down the sidewalks of New York without being murdered!”
As Just the News notes,
If authentic, the document could indeed be exculpatory for Trump. A potential charge legal experts have floated hinges on Trump falsifying his business records to hide a potential campaign finance violation.
Trump’s alleged falsification stems from his listing of a payment to Cohen as a legal fee, which some have suggested was a reimbursement for Cohen’s payment to Daniels. Trump’s lawyer, Joe Tacopina, denies the record’s inaccuracy and has contended that “[t]he payments were made to a lawyer, not to Stormy Daniels. The payments were made to Donald Trump’s lawyer, which would be considered legal fees.”
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report March 22, 2023 Issue 6973 | Independent View of the News |
| The King Report March 23, 2023 Issue 6974 Independent View of the News Xi Jinping delivers a chilling message for the West as he tells ‘dear friend’ Vladimir Putin ‘change that hasn’t happened in 100 years is coming. And we are driving it together’ on day Russian despot said UK risked ‘nuclear collision’ with its aid to Ukraine… https://t.co/KUFCQ3MRbs UK inflation rate breaks 3-month stretch of declines with surprise rise to 10.4% The consumer price index (CPI) increased by an annual 10.4%, above the 9.9% consensus forecast among economists in a Refinitiv poll and up from 10.1% in January. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 1.1%, exceeding a forecast of 0.6%. “The largest upward contributions to the monthly change in both the CPIH and CPI rates came from restaurants and cafes, food, and clothing, partially offset by downward contributions from recreational and cultural goods and services (particularly recording media), and motor fuels,” the U.K. Office for National Statistics said. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 9.2% in the 12 months to February 2023, up from 8.8% in January… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/uk-inflation-rate-breaks-3-month-stretch-of-declines-with-surprise-rise-to-10point4percent.html ESMs vacillated between modest gains and losses during Asian trading. ESMs and stocks sank when Europe opened due to the ugly UK CPI. The tumble ended at 4:19 ET. ESMs rallied 19 handles by 7:21 ET. They had an A-B-C decline that ended at 9:45 ET on the usual dip buying for lower NYSE opens. ESMs then soared to a daily high of 4047.50 at 10:30 ET. Alas, a critical mass of traders then tried to unload their conditioned purchases. There were few organic buyers; so, ESMs tumbled to a daily low of 4021.75 at 13:04 ET. It was time for the usual rally into the release of the FOMC Minutes. Headlines of FOMC MinutesFed Raises Benchmark Rate 25bps to 4.75% to 5% Target Range – BBG Fed Median Forecast Shows Rates at 5.1% End-’23, 4.3% End-’24 – BBG Fed Says ‘Some Additional Policy Firming May Be Appropriate’ – BBG Fed Will Continue Same Pace of Reducing Treasury, MBS Holdings – BBG US Banks Sound, Resilient But Event to Weigh on Growth – BBG Fed Raised IOR to 4.9%, Discount Rate to 5% – BBG Fed Says Data Point to Modest Growth in Spending, Production – BBG Fed Says Job Gains Picked Up, Running at Robust Pace – BBG Fed Says Inflation Remains Elevated; Fed Is Highly Attentive to Inflation Risks – BBG Banking Turmoil Likely to Tighten Credit, Weigh on Economy – BBG FOMC Statement Drops Reference to Ongoing Increases in Interest Rates – DJ Fed Officials Lower Growth Forecast for 2023, 2024 – DJ Fed Officials Slightly Raise Projection for 2023 Inflation to 3.3% – DJ Fed Officials Slightly Lower Projection for 2023 Unemployment to 4.5% – DJ On the release of the FOMC Minutes, ESMs vertically soared 23 handles because the Fed said it sees the funds rate at 5.1% by the end of this year. After a sudden 17-handle retreat, ESMs jumped 33 handles higher to a new daily high of 4066.00. ESMs then sank to 4035.50 at 14:14 ET. ESMs then vacillated in a wide range as traders awaited Powell’s Press Conference Powell Press Conference HighlightsSerious Difficulties at Small Number of Banks Emerged – BBG Fed, Treasury, FDIC Took Decisive Actions Earlier – BBG Depositors’ Savings Are Safe – BBG Ample Liquidity Is Available – BBG Prepared to Use All Tools to Keep Bank System Safe – BBG Committed to Learning Lessons from Banking Episode – BBG Inflation Remains Too High, Labor Market Still Tight – BBG Without Price Stability, Economy Doesn’t Work – BBG Weather May Have Helped Boost Spending Recently – BBG Activity in Housing Sector Remains Weak – BBG Labor Demand Substantially Exceeds Worker Supply – BBG 14:34 ET Indicators Have Recently Been Stronger Than Expected – BBG Inflation Remains Well Above Goal of 2% – BBG Inflation Return to 2% Has Long Way to Go, To Be Bumpy – BBG Indicators Have Recently Been Stronger Than Expected – BBG Decisions Will Be Made Meeting by Meeting – BBG ESMs sank to 40022.25 at 14:36 ET on Powell’s remarks concerning inflation and labor market tightness. ESMs then soared to 4064.75 at 14:44 ET because Powell’s Q&A session began at 14:39 ET. Powell’s Q&A HighlightsDeposit Flows in Banking System Stabilized Past Week – BBG 14:39 ET We Considered Pause in Days Running Up to Meeting – BBG 14:40 ET Still Don’t Have Progress in Non-Housing Services Inflation – BBG 14:48 ET Goods Disinflation Certainly Proceeding, but Slow – BBG 14:49 ET It’s Important That We Sustain Confidence in Fed – BBG It’s Possible Bank Crisis Will Have Only Modest Effects – BBG Rate Policy Focused on Macro Outcomes – BBG We Were All Asking Ourselves How Bank Turmoil Happened – BBG SVB Management Failed Badly, Exposed Bank to Liquidity Risk – BBG SVB did not hedge its interest rate risks, had concentrated depositors; SVB was an outlier on duration risks and uninsured depositor concentration. Clear We Need to Strengthen Supervision, Regulation – BBG I Plan to Support Stronger Supervision, Regulation – BBG 14:53 ET Fed Officials ‘Just Don’t’ See Rate Cuts This Year – BBG Powell dodged a question about fiscal policy’s effect on inflation. If We Need to Hike Rates Higher Than Expected, We Will – BBG Recent Balance Sheet Rise Not Monetary Policy Related, Reflects Temp Lending – BBG Fed Supervisory Team Was Engaged with SVB before Crisis – BBG Not a Surprise that Firms Had Interest-Rate Risks – BBG We Haven’t Discussed Changing Balance Sheet Runoff – BBG Financial Conditions Tighter Than Indexes Indicate (He hopes!) – BBG Recessions Tend to Be Non-Linear – BBG Path to Soft Landing Still Exists, Trying to Find It – BBG ESMs tumbled to 4004.75 at 15:08 ET, from 4073.75 at 14:48 ET, because Powell said there was no non-housing service inflation progress and the Fed would hike rates higher than expected if needed. After Powell’s Q&A ended at 15:13 ET, ESMs rallied 42 handles in 12 minutes because traders are extremely bullish and want to buy stuff on even the flimsiest of excuses. The rally peaked at 15:22 ET; ESMs and stocks then plunge on this: Yellen Says US Not Considering ‘Blanket’ Bank Deposit Insurance – BBG. ESMs and stocks closed at their daily lows. @WallStCynic: On July 21, 2022 SVB Financial published this balance sheet that showed market losses in their Held To Maturity bond portfolio equal to 95% of their tangible common equity. This was an accident hiding in plain sight, waiting to happen. https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1638383447969349632 First Republic seeks new ways to escape unrealized losses First Republic Bank’s efforts to secure a capital infusion continued without success on Tuesday, as the troubled regional lender started to plan for the possibility it may need to downsize or get a government backstop. Major banks and private equity firms have so far balked at offering First Republic the capital infusion it craves for fear of releasing losses on the bank’s loan book and investment portfolio amid a rise in interest rates… https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-shares-steady-after-brutal-selloff-2023-03-21/ @SJosephBurns: Capitol One Credit Default Swaps are now surging faster (76.60 from 30) than during the global predicaments of early 2020. This banking crisis is far from over. https://twitter.com/SJosephBurns/status/1638593693417447574 CNBC’s @carlquintanilla: CITI: “This was the first week of [Citi credit card] data following the disruption within the financial sector; we were curious if it might have had an impact on the consumer. It sure did… biggest decline in total retail spending… since the pandemic began (April 2020).” Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied early and after Powell’s Q&A Fangs, once again, led the rally Bonds rallied sharply, abetted by Yellen’s nixing of higher deposit insurance Negative aspects of previous session Industrial and energy commodities soared ESMs and stocks tumbled and closed at their daily lows due to Yellen and Powell Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who else is in trouble? How many more ‘problems’ are lurking? How will buying stocks because there is a global banking crisis work out? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3970.83 Previous session High/Low: 4039.49; 3936.17 FAA issues safety alert to airlines and pilots after ‘concerning’ near-miss incidents FAA’s ‘Aviation Safety Call to Action’ references six ‘serious runway incursions’ in 2023 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/faa-issues-safety-alert-airlines-pilots-concerning-near-miss-incidents The egregiously inept and daffy Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg, should have been fired months ago. Apparently, it will take a tragedy to remove Buttigieg. Doctor tells Tucker Americans are facing health crisis from processed foods: ‘This is a national emergency’ – “For every 10% of your calories [that] is ultra-processed food, your risk of death goes up by 14%… And our diet is 60% ultra-processed food, and kids are 67%. It’s a national emergency,” Physician Dr. Mark Hyman told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson. “There’s 6 million people [who] have died from COVID globally, but 11 million people die every year from bad food.”… “Cancer primarily is caused by food and environmental toxins. What kind of food? Sugar,” Dr. Hyman told Carlson, Tuesday. “We know clearly that pancreatic cancer, colon cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, many of the common cancers, pancreatic cancer, are caused by something called insulin resistance, which is basically pre-diabetes or poor metabolic health.”… https://t.co/PCPQ2nnrWp @KanekoaTheGreat: Mexico’s President AMLO says the United States cannot talk about human rights with Julian Assange detained, cartel violence with President Joe Biden bombing the Nord Stream pipeline, or democracy while arresting the leading presidential candidate Donald Trump. https://t.co/BIh93L1I43 1 minute after the ugly NYSE close – and on Fed Day, @stlouisfed: Diversity, equity and inclusion efforts at the St. Louis Fed have evolved over more than a decade. DEI Vice President Desiree Coleman-Fry gave an update on recent initiatives and progress. https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2023/march/st-louis-fed-diversity-equity-inclusion-values @ChaosCapitalLL1 Replying to @stlouisfed: Are you serious? you tweet this now? @Cap_ital_Gains: Replying to @stlouisfed: DEI? Likely violates 14th amendment. DEI is not part of the Fed mandate. @JoeGall1423: Replying to @stlouisfed: No wonder you allowed rampant inflation and weren’t supervising SVB and others properly. You were wasting your time and our money on political kabuki theatre. You weren’t doing your jobs. Today – Traders were exceedingly bullish. After Powell’s Q&A, even though his comments on balance were hawkish, the usual suspects aggressively bought ESMs and stocks. Beaucoup traders got long for an expected relief rally after the Powell’s appearance; Yellen’s deposit remark provoked an equity tumble. The key question for today: Will the late ESM/stock plunge chill traders’ ebullience for a rally today? It should; but traders have been ignoring negative occurrences for quite a while. CME FedWatch: 55% chance of no rate change on May 3 FOMC, 45% chance of 25bp hike Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 198k, Continuing Claims 1692m; Q4 Current Account Balance -$217.1B; Feb Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.10; Feb New Home Sales 650k; March KC Fed Mfg. Activity -2 ESMs are +5.50 and USMs are +16/32 at 21:00 ET. Traders are effectively buying the late US dip! S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4014; 100-day MA: 3960; 150-day MA: 3926; 200-day MA: 3934 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,301; 100-day MA: 33,341; 150-day MA: 32,558; 200-day MA: 32,367 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3856.18 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4066.63 triggers a buy signal Hunter Biden used FBI mole named ‘One-Eye’ to tip him off to China probes: tipster The House Oversight Committee is investigating the explosive claims by Dr. Gal Luft, a former Israel Defense Forces lieutenant colonel with deep intelligence ties in Washington and Beijing, who says he was arrested to stop him from revealing what he knows about the Biden family and FBI corruption — details he told the Department of Justice in 2019, which he says it ignored…“DOJ is trying to bury me to protect Joe, Jim, and Hunter Biden… Ye confided to Luft that Hunter had an informant in the FBI “or formerly of the bureau, extremely well placed, who they paid lots of money to [provide] sealed law enforcement information,” says Henoch. The FBI mole was called “One-Eye.”… https://nypost.com/2023/03/22/hunter-biden-used-fbi-mole-to-tip-him-off-to-china-probes-tipster/ VP Biden’s office tried to quash Bloomberg story about Hunter Biden at his firm’s request, emails show – President of Hunter Biden’s Rosemont Seneca asked VP’s office to ‘urge’ Bloomberg against running since-deleted story… On Dec. 8, 2015, The New York Times ran an article saying the “credibility of the vice president’s anticorruption message may have been undermined” by Hunter’s serving on the board of Burisma Holdings with its owner, Mykola Zlochevsky… “… VP just finished an interview with the Bloomberg reporter traveling with us and she asked about it, though she assures me she’s doing everything she can to not use it,” she wrote. “I will have a transcript soon but my quick notes on his answer are: No one has any doubt about my record on corruption, I don’t talk to my son about his business and my children don’t talk to me about mine, I have complete faith in my son.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vp-bidens-office-tried-quash-bloomberg-story-about-hunter-biden-his-firms-request-emails-show Rep. Comer hammers media for silence on China payouts to Bidens: ‘Where are the fact-checkers?’ House Oversight chairman says Biden lying after committee obtained bank records https://www.foxnews.com/media/rep-comer-hammers-media-silence-china-payouts-bidens-fact-checkers Soros-Funded DA Alvin Bragg CAUGHT HIDING Nearly 600 Pages of Exculpatory Evidence from NY Grand Jury in Trump Case According to FOX News legal mind Gregg Jarrett, DA Alvin Bragg HID nearly 600 pages of exculpatory evidence to the New York Grand Jury. Gregg Jarrett: …when Bob Costello got into that Grand Jury room and told them, “Wait a minute. You don’t have the hundreds of pages I handed over to Alvin Bragg over here? You only have six cherry-picked documents?” You know, hiding from grand juries exculpatory information is reprehensible and unconscionable. And the conduct of Alvin Bragg and his henchman Mark Pomeranz, who specifically says in his book, “We’re targeting zombies because we don’t like his beliefs,” those guys should face disbarment proceedings… https://t.co/Cw85OTB73q Memos from 2018-19 shake up Trump case: Cohen denied having incriminating evidence on hush money – A lawyer who formerly advised Michael Cohen alleges that in 2018 the ex-Trump adviser claimed to know nothing about the former president committing wrongdoing, including on hush money to women… Costello, a former federal prosecutor who has represented famous clients… told Just the News on Tuesday he provided Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office with more than 300 pages of emails, memos and texts chronicling his dealings with Cohen. He said his documents showed Cohen took out a bank loan known as a HELOC — on his own — during the 2016 presidential election to pay Stormy Daniels $130,000 under a nondisclosure agreement so she would remain quiet about her alleged relationship with Trump. Cohen bragged he kept the situation quiet so that Melania Trump and Cohen’s own wife wouldn’t learn about it… “And I said, ‘Did you get that money from Donald Trump?’ ‘No.’ ‘Did you get it from any Trump Organization?’ ‘No.’… “Yes, during the long conversation on June 23, 2018, Cohen asked me to talk to Giuliani and ultimately to Trump about Cohen applying to Aeon Insurance, under the D&O policy, to pay the legal fees, and Cohen did not want ‘the big guy’ to oppose Cohen’s request,” Costello said, according to the summary of the interview with federal prosecutors… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/wcohen-wanted-trump-pay-legal-bills-had-no-incriminating-evidence Due to the above developments, the Grand Jury investigating Trump was dismissed on Wednesday and put on standby for today. It meets Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. @paulsperry_: Hill sources say Democratic Rep. Daniel Goldman of Manhattan — who prosecuted the first Trump impeachment and has been bragging to reporters about sabotaging GOP investigations of the Bidens — has privately consulted with Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg over indicting Trump. Anti-Trump D.A. Alvin Bragg’s wife Jamila Ponton @jpontonbragg has locked her Twitter page, changing her account status from open to “protected.” For several years, @jpontonbragg has railed against Trump & retweeted posts calling him racist and advocating for his arrest. GOP Rep/Head of House Judiciary Com @Jim_Jordan: Has anyone in Biden Administration been in contact with the Manhattan DA’s office about a possible Trump indictment? Any Democrat members of Congress? Everyone knows this is all politics. But how far does it go? @mrddmia: On her last day as chief judge, U.S. District Judge for D.C. Beryl Howell handed over Trump’s attorney notes to Garland’s special counsel Jack Smith–without any opportunity for Trump or his attorney to appeal. Even the liberal @dailybeast acknowledges this was highly unusual. Judge Howell is an Obama-appointed judge, who previously served as a top aide to then-Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Judge Howell previously served as the supervising judge for Bob Mueller’s Russian collusion investigation against President Trump. @Brick_Suit: Over 8 million people live in New York city and exactly TWO of them came out to protest against Trump while 20 or so members of the MSM filmed it. The media is a lie. (Sad, yet funny clip) https://twitter.com/Brick_Suit/status/1638203829681520640 @ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson: “The Biden Administration is in the process of preparing yet another law enforcement dragnet of more than a THOUSAND nonviolent January 6th protestors.” “This will constitute the largest investigation in the history of the DOJ by an order of magnitude. This dragnet is so vast that prosecutors are warning DC jails and prisons will be overrun with prisoners. Prisoners who can at this point only be described as political prisoners.” https://t.co/l1LgK1OFfk Carlson on MSM being giddy about the arrests: “You never see these very same people fantasize about locking up say the murderers or rapists or armed robbers or people… https://t.co/md0lXjV0xq @NewsBecker: Tucker Carlson: “This (Prosecution abuses of Jan 6 protestors) is bigger than Donald Trump and it has been for a long time. Where’s Mitch McConnell? Where’s Thom Tillis? Where’s John Cornyn? Are these people on board with arresting their voters?” https://t.co/C5mVU4oLOe @julie_kelly2: Holy s**t this is beyond dirty. DC US Attorney Matthew Graves’ office notified defense team TODAY that a defense witnesses has been an FBI informant since the BEGINNING of the case thru start of trial. “The CHS participated in prayer meetings with…the defendants’ families.” https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1638620963687243813 So prosecutors knew back in December that defense planned to call this person as a witness. For 3 months, not only did Graves’ office refuse to disclose the witness was an FBI informant, the individual continued to work as an informant, spying on defense, during trial prep. This is starting to sound worse than Whitmer fednapping hoax. Graves’ office continues to mislead court and defendants about actual number of FBI informants could be dozens as far as anyone knows. Motion filed by public defender for Zachary Rehl. Rehl is the nonviolent defendant denied bail for 2 years by Judge Tim Kelly. Hernandez today asked Kelly to reconsider Rehl’s incarceration since he has a daughter he’s never held since she was born after he was arrested. https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1638622957583867914 Babylon Bee: Democrats Vow to Arrest as Many Political Opponents as It Takes to Defeat Fascism https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-fight-fascism-by-arresting-political-opponents Ann Coulter: Heavy D Don’t Tweet, He Acts – This is why DeSantis Scares Them. Isn’t it great to have the media complaining about what a Republican is doing, instead of what he’s tweeting?… People are sick of taxpayer-supported government officials who expect standing ovations for not doing their jobs. It’s become something of a lifestyle choice for Democrats to run for office, then refuse to enforce any laws they disagree with. President Obama announced that he would not enforce immigration laws against so-called “Dreamers,” despite passing an amnesty being Congress’ job. Obama even gave the illegals work permits, in open defiance of federal law. Then Trump became president, and Democrats around the country announced that they, too, would refuse to abide by federal immigration laws, declaring themselves “sanctuary cities.” In the last few years, we got a slew of George Soros-backed, BLM-supporting progressive prosecutors showily refusing to prosecute… That’s why, yes, New York Times, DeSantis’ firing of Warren is probably going to be a hit with voters. He’s the first guy to take these comic book heroes at their word and remove them from the offices they openly disdain…But isn’t it great to have the Times mad at a Republican for actually scoring a win — and not for posting obnoxious tweets?… https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/heavy-d-dont-tweet-he-acts @JudiciaryGOP: Relying on subpoenaed documents, @Weaponization Committee releases damning report on Merrick Garland’s anti-parent school board memo. Read it here: https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2023-03-21-school-board-documents-interim-report.pdf Air Force IDs 2 new GOP candidates whose military records were improperly released The Air Force has notified lawmakers that it improperly released the military records of a total of seven GOP congressional candidates to a Democratic-aligned research firm during the 2022 campaign cycle… https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/air-force-gop-candidates-records-released-00088050 GOP @RepThomasMassie: This is chilling. The U.S. Air Force illegally released military records of several GOP candidates to the Democratic Party which then leveraged the material to run attack ads on at least one of them: @JRMajewski. GOP Rep. @mattgaetz: The Politically Weaponized DOD. @ggreenwald: On last night’s @SystemUpdate_, we showed the statements from 2014 by people like @ChrisMurphyCT, McCain and Victoria Nuland where they *boasted* of how the US toppled Ukraine’s democratically elected president and replaced him with a stooge; listen: https://t.co/bRDe8BBkjp @SystemUpdate_: In 2014, leaked audio of Victoria Nuland & the US ambassador to Ukraine exposed their plans to overthrow Ukraine’s democratically elected leader. Everything they discussed came to pass. But sure, the US has had nothing to do with the internal affairs of Ukraine. CNN: New Mexico Game and Fish is now hiring ‘professional bear huggers’ Interested applicants “must have ability to hike in strenuous conditions, have the courage to crawl into a bear den, and have the trust in your coworkers to keep you safe during the process,” wrote the department… https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/us/new-mexico-bear-huggers-job-trnd/index.html  ReplyReply allForward | |
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING
I will see you TOMORROW
STARTING TOMORROW, I WILL ONLY DO ABBREVIATED COMMENTARIES,
HOWEVER I WILL CAPTURE THE MAJOR EVENTS
THIS WILL BE FOR 3 WEEKS
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