APRIL 3//OPEC+ LOWERS PRODUCTION LEVELS AND THAT SETS OFF GOLD/SILVER ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE WITH GOLD FINISHING UP $14.20 TO $1983.50//SILVER FINISHED DOWN 14 CENTS TO $23.86//PLATINUM LOWERS IN PRICE BY $4,45 TO $989.95//PALLADIUM WAS UP $19.30 TO $1485.60//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/UPDATES UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2664.15 UP 12.15 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)
BRITISH GOLD: 1597.50 UP 1.50 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1819.15 UP 3.88 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:
JPMORGAN stopped 1650/16923 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 2255 NOTICES FOR 225500 OZ or 7.0139 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,178 contracts for 1,917,800 oz (59.651 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 198 for 990,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $14.20
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44TONNES FROM THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS
WOW!! WHAT CROOKS:
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF OF 4.779 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.412 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 5 TO 121,387 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.14 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS WEEK’S READING AT THE COMEX , WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS , MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.14). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1155CONTRACTS. WE HAD ANOTHER 1000 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 6.0 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1149CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 6.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 7.110 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/. WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE POINT THAT THE CROOKS CANNOT LIQUIDATE ANY MORE SILVER SPEC LONGS.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –42 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 1149 contracts: OR 5.745 MILLION OZ . (1149 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 5.745 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
APRIL 5.745 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.14 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1149 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 5.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN APRIL (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 7.110 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1155 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 31 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 155,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 18,345 CONTRACTS TO 456,507 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED + 1532 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 18,345 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $10.30 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 24,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $10.30 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 15,659 OI CONTRACTS (48.71 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO THE FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 456,507
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,659 CONTRACTS WITH 18,345 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2686 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,659CONTRACTS OR 48,71 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2686 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (15,659) //TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,659 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 24,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 67.651 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION (ALL SPREADERS) //4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2656 CONTRACTS OR 265,600 OZ OR 8.2612 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2656 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 8.2612 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 8.2612/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 8.2612 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 5 CONTRACTS OI TO 121,4429 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 1149 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1149 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1149 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1149 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1155 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //5.775 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.14 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.70 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 9.07 PTS OR 0.04% /The Nikkei closed UP 146.67 PTS OR 1.52 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.58 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8789 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8636 /Oil UP TO 80.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.03/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 18,345 CONTRACTS UP TO 456,507 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.30 ON FRIDAY, ALL OF THE LOSS BEING FROM SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2686 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2686 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2686 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC TOTAL OF 15,659 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2686 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 18,345 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.30 WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (67.654) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 67.654 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $10.30 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 15,659 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 48.71 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 24,500 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $12.25
WE HAD -1532 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,659 CONTRACTS OR 1,565,900 OZ OR 48.71 TONNES. ALL OF THIS HUGE LOSS WAS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
19,178 notices 1,917,800 OZ 59.651 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: NIL oz
in tonnes:0.
Adjustments; 1
Out of JPMorgan: 578,710.938 customer to dealer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 4827 contracts having LOST 16,678 contracts.
We had 16,923 contracts filed on Friday, so we gained 245 contracts or 24500 oz (0.7620 tonnes)
May LOST 38 contracts to stand at 1539
JUNE LOST 2843 contracts to 390,875
We had 2255 notice(s) filed today for 225,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 2412 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2255 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1650 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,178 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 4828 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2255 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,175,100 OZ OR 67.654 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:No of notices filed so far (19,178 x 100 oz+ 4827 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16,923)x 100 oz} which equals 2,175,100 oz standing OR 67.654 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 67.654 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
total pledged gold: 1,643,341.368 OZ 51.114 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,291,699.603 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,097,362.125 (376,27 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,773,054.363 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,454,021 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 325.16 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 1/2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
822,057.745oz Brinks
JPMorgan Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1045.400 oz JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
31 CONTRACT(S) (155,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts (120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
198 Contracts (990,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 144.828 million oz/278,057 million =52,15% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i)Out of Brinks 198,506.420 oz
ii) Out of Loomis 468,108.01
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 155,442.02 oz
Total withdrawals; 822,057.45 oz
adjustments: 3
Brinks 169,641,100 oz
Int Delaware: 67,641.810 oz
Loomis 85,293,700 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.809 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 279.086 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 55 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 156 CONTRACT(S. WE HAD 167 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 55,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 1099 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 89,957.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for 155,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 198 x 5,000 oz = 990,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(55) and the number of notices served upon today 31 X (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 198(notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (55) – number of notices served upon today (31 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates 1.110 million oz +the NEW 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 6.0 MILLION OZ //new total standing 7.110 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 928.02 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 465.412 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
nd
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8789
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8636
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.70 PTS OR 0.72%
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 9.07 PTS OR 0.04%
2. Nikkei closed UP 146.67 PTS OR 0.52%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.90 EURO RISES TO 1.0885 UP 5 2BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.377 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 132.36/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.2135 ***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4,093*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.267…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.148
3j Gold at $1985.50 silver at: 23.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 10/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78,71//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.36 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .377% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9143 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9945 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.415 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.652 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1389 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.20…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 5 BASIS PTS AT 3.4355
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Oil Soars, Futures Flat After Shock OPEC Output Cut
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 03:10 PM
Last week’s torried rally in US equities hit the brakes on Monday as investors digested the shocking move by OPEC+ to cut oil production by a total of 1.66 million barrels a day. S&P futures were lower by 0.1% following a 3.5% gain last week, while Nasdaq 100 contracts – which entered a bull market last week – lose 0.6% as Tesla shares fell in the premarket after 1Q deliveries fell short of expectations. Spot gold falls 0.2% to $1,964. Bitcoin rises 0.9%.
Brent crude headed for the biggest gain since April 2022 while West Texas Intermediate was poised for the best day since May. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia pledged on Sunday to make the cuts from next month that will exceed 1 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia leading the way with 500,000 barrels. Brent crude futures are up 5.3% at around $84.15, the biggest one-day gain in almost a year, while WTI adds 5.5% to trade near $79.80 lifting energy stocks: Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied in premarket trading.
In other notable premarket moves, Tesla slipped after the electric-carmaker’s first-quarter deliveries fell short of the pace required to meet Elon Musk’s long-held goal of 50% annual growth. World Wrestling Entertainment shares fell after Bloomberg News reported that entertainment conglomerate Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. is near a deal to acquire the wrestling company for about $9 billion. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) rose 17% after the biotech firm drew takeover interest from larger drugmakers. The company is speaking to advisers to consider its options amid the interest, according to a Bloomberg News report citing people familiar.
Energy stocks rallied in premarket trading as the price of oil jumped following OPEC+’s announcement of a surprise production cut. Chevron (CVX US) +4.4%, Exxon (XOM US) +4.3%, ConocoPhillips (COP US) +5%, Marathon Oil (MRO US) +7%; oil-field services provider Schlumberger (SLB US) +4.6%, Halliburton (HAL US) +4.9%.
Intel Corp. (INTC) is upgraded to market perform from underperform at Bernstein, which writes that things may be starting to turn around for the chipmaker. Shares little changed premarket.
Micron (MU) shares were set to extend losses after Beijing launched a cybersecurity review of imports from the largest US memory-chip maker, escalating a semiconductor battle between the two countries. Morgan Stanley, however, said there shouldn’t be any near-term impact.
Shares of US-listed casino operators that operate in Macau surge in premarket trading, after data showed that the city’s gaming revenue soared 247% in March, buoyed by a return of tourists from mainland China as Covid restrictions ease.
Monday’s market moves presented a contrast to a consensus view that drove up asset prices at the end of the first quarter, when Treasuries and stocks rallied amid expectations the banking turmoil in rich nations will encourage the Fed to pause interest-rate hikes and opt for a cut later this year. Those bets were now being revised: Money markets raised the probability of a quarter-point interest-rate hike in May to 65% from 55% seen earlier.
“The impact of this will feed into inflation data globally and means that inflation may take longer to return to target,” said Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management. “This will mean that interest rates, once they peak, will need to stay at higher levels for longer.”
Inflation “just doesn’t go away,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “We have a strong labor market, a consumer who can spend, and now oil prices are coming up. It’s increasingly challenging for central banks,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Equities are really at risk because inflation fighting is not over. The Fed needs to get aggressive and keep policy tight, and that will crater earnings.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson who has become a bearish broken record, warned the rally in tech stocks that has exceeded 20% isn’t sustainable and that the sector will return to new lows. Wilson said the rotation into tech is taking place partly because it’s being viewed as a traditional defensive sector, though he disagrees with that thesis and sees utilities, staples and health care as having the better risk-reward profile.
Outside of the energy sector, however, the equity-market sentiment was muted. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was little changed as 14 0f its 20 subgroups posted losses. Energy stocks outperformed and helped push the major European equity benchmarks higher with the Stoxx 50 rising 0.2% and the FTSE 100 up 0.7%. Here are the notable premarket movers:
Siemens Energy rises as much as 6.6% after being rated overweight at Morgan Stanley, which sees significant upside for the gas turbines and wind energy group
Burford Capital shares rise as much as 42% in London, after the litigation financing firm got a boost in its bet on a lawsuit involving Argentinian oil company YPF
European energy stocks outperform Monday, after an unexpected crude output cut from OPEC+ sent crude futures soaring
Hennes & Mauritz shares rise as much as 1.8%, after Credit Suisse upgrades the clothing retailer to neutral from underperform
Industrials REIT shares jump as much as 39%, after Blackstone agrees the key financial terms of a final proposal for a possible cash offer at 168p/ share
Anglo American fluctuates between gains of 2.1% and 0.6% decline after Barclays upgrades the miner to overweight from equal-weight, citing a pullback in shares
Oil tanker company shares extend declines, after a shock OPEC+ output cut sent crude futures soaring as much as 8%, delivering a fresh jolt to the world economy.
“We’re now probably about to enter a very short-term down leg again,” Paul Gambles, MBMG Group co-founder and managing partner, said on Bloomberg Television. “We’ve had a year of pretty irresponsible policy guides and all the damage that they’ve done is now starting to show up.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped as a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut crude outputs sparked concerns over further inflation risks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.4%, dragged by tech stocks. Energy shares were the biggest gainers on the regional gauge. Benchmarks in Japan, mainland China, Australia and Singapore rose while those in South Korea fell. The unexpected production cut by OPEC+ overshadowed Friday’s data that indicated US inflation was cooling, which may cloud outlook on the Fed’s rate hike path. Asian stocks are still relatively well-positioned to weather any shocks compared to other markets due to their high growth potential and as the Fed is seen to near the peak of its hiking cycle, according to strategists. “Asia ex Japan, the one region where we see growth strong and accelerating this year, should be a relative outperformer,” Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets said in a report. The bank remains cautious on global equities as “a sharp slowing of a previously strong economy has repeatedly been poor for stocks relative to high grade bonds.” Asian stocks gained in the past two weeks, rising about 4% from its mid-March low, as concerns over a banking crisis eased. The main Asian stock gauge is still about 5% below its late-January high.
Japanese stocks climbed, as investors looked to cooling US inflation data and as OPEC+ cut its oil production, weakening the yen. The Topix Index rose 0.7% to 2,017.68 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to 28,188.15. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 0.9%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,648 rose and 445 fell, while 67 were unchanged. “The PCE seems to have calmed down and is well received in the markets.” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “Mining and petroleum are rising due to high crude oil prices, but caution is required as it may lead to high resource costs.”
The commodity-heavy Australian market rose with the S&P/ASX 200 index up 0.6% to close at 7,223.00, extending gains for a sixth day, boosted by a rally in energy stocks. Oil shares jumped after OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. On Tuesday, Australia’s central bank will deliver a rate decision. Economists are divided over whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates for an 11th consecutive meeting or pause its most aggressive tightening cycle since 1989 amid cooling economic momentum.
In FX, commodity related currencies also received a boost with the Norwegian krone and Aussie dollar the best performers among the G-10’s while the Canadian dollar climbed to a five-week high versus the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was up earlier after rising oil prices worsened jitters around US inflation, but later turned negative.
In rates, treasuries remained cheaper across the curve after yields gapped higher at the open as oil surged on OPEC+ group’s surprise plan to cut production. US two-year yields have added 8bps to 4.10% as traders bet higher oil prices will have implications for inflation and monetary policy. Monday’s losses unwind a portion of last week’s steep gains into quarter-end. Yields are higher by 5bp to 3bp across the curve with front-end-led losses flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp and ~1bp on the day; 10-year around 3.50% underperforms bunds and gilts by 1.5bp and 2bp in the sector. Money markets raised the odds on a quarter-point interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve in May to 65% from 55%, while a half-point of subsequent easing remained priced by year-end.
In commodities, oil prices are sharply higher following the surprise move by OPEC+ to cut production. Brent crude futures are up 5.3% at around $84.15 while WTI adds 5.5% to trade near $79.80. WTI crude futures pared an 8% earlier advance to around 6%, while Fed rate-hike premium has increased slightly for the May policy announcement.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes March S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), February construction spending and March ISM manufacturing (10am); week also includes durable goods orders, JOLTS, ISM services and March.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,128.00
MXAP little changed at 161.99
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 522.58
Nikkei up 0.5% to 28,188.15
Topix up 0.7% to 2,017.68
Hang Seng Index little changed at 20,409.18
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,296.40
Sensex down 0.1% to 58,924.87
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,223.02
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,472.34
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 458.01
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36%
Euro little changed at $1.0838
Brent Futures up 5.2% to $84.07/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,963.28
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 102.72
Top overnight News
The China reopening effect that’s been highly anticipated — and at times, perhaps dangerously so — around the world is starting to emerge. Some promising readings in the forward-looking purchasing managers’ indexes show that factory managers are seeing a healthy flow of orders ahead, and putting the quirks of the Lunar New Year season behind them. BBG
Macau’s casinos had their best month since the earliest days of the pandemic, with gaming revenue surging 247% in March after Chinese tourists flocked to the gambling hub as the end of Covid Zero sparks a travel boom. BBG
China’s biggest banks say they have escaped unscathed from the financial crisis in the US and Europe, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. China’s top lenders — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China — have all reported there was no direct damage to their books from last month’s emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS and failures in the US banking sector. FT
Chinese authorities warned the nation’s top banking executives that the crackdown on the $60 trillion industry is far from over in a private meeting late Friday, just as they were about to announce the probe of the most senior state banker in nearly two decades. BBG
OPEC+ on Sunday announced a surprise cut to production of >1M BPD, with Saudi Arabia accounting for ~500K of the reduction (while Russia said the previously announced production cut it planned to implement from March to June would continue until the end of 2023). BBG
Switzerland’s Federal Prosecutor has opened an investigation into the state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group the office of the attorney general said on Sunday. The prosecutor, based in the Swiss capital Bern, is looking into potential breaches of the country’s criminal law by government officials, regulators and executives at the two banks, which agreed on an emergency merger last month to avoid a meltdown in the country’s financial system. RTRS
Banks are still struggling to offload ~$25-30B of “hung” debt related to LBOs, including a large chunk related to Twitter that’s increasingly unattractive. WSJ
Donald Trump will plead not guilty when he appears in a Manhattan court tomorrow to face charges related to alleged hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign, his lawyer told CNN. His team may also ask to move the case to the more conservative NY borough of Staten Island out of concern he won’t get a fair trial. He leaves Mar-a-Lago at noon today. BBG
Auto discounts are creeping higher as OEMs work to move inventory amid tightened lending availability owing to Fed rate hikes and March’s regional banking turmoil. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive amid strength in the energy sector after oil prices were boosted by a surprise voluntary output cut by OPEC+ members although gains in the broader market were capped heading into this week’s key events and as participants digested a slew of data releases including disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 was underpinned by the energy-related gains and with money market pricing leaning heavily towards a pause at tomorrow’s RBA meeting, while analysts are near-evenly split between a hike and a pause. Nikkei 225 notched modest gains with upside capped following the mixed Tankan survey in which the large manufacturers’ sentiment index deteriorated for the 5th consecutive quarter and fell to its lowest since December 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with price action cautious after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI showed activity was flat in March and following a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC.
Top Asian News
PBoC called for stronger defences against a financial crisis and said that China should accelerate legislation of the Financial Stability Law, as well as improve other legal arrangements to prevent and dispose of financial risks, according to three central bank officials in PBoC-affiliated publication China Finance.
Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin and expressed concern regarding the situation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while Hayashi raised the issue with Premier Li regarding a detained Japanese national who was trying to promote Japanese investment in China and Hayashi was also reported to have met with Politburo member Wang Yi. Furthermore, Japan urged China to view the Ukraine war from a rule of law perspective and take responsible actions in the UN Security Council, while China pressed Japan to change course on chip export curbs, according to Reuters and FT.
US called for joint G7 action against China’s economic bullying, according to Nikkei.
US lawmakers are to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai, Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook and Disney (DIS) CEO Iger, according to Bloomberg.
Equities are broadly mixed/tentative as markets digest elevated oil prices against the potential inflation/Central Bank implications, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%. FTSE 100 +0.7% is the current outperformer given its Energy exposure, with the sector leading the European upside while Travel & Leisure names lag given higher fuel costs. Stateside, futures are softer but similarly tentative with the NQ -0.6% lagging as yields increase ahead of Fed speak and ISM Manufacturing to kick off the shortened week. Switzerland’s Attorney General is to investigate whether the Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) takeover by UBS (UBSN SW) broke Swiss criminal law and is looking into potential breaches by government officials, regulators and bank executives, according to The Guardian. Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) expands its sustainability offering for corporate clients through a new partnership with Act Cleantech Agentur Schweiz, while it was separately reported that UBS (UBS SW) shortlisted four consultants for the Credit Suisse integration and UBS will cut its workforce by between 20%-30% after completing the takeover.
Top European News
Hundreds of UK travellers faced disruptions for the third day at the Port of Dover as ministers insisted that the cause for the Channel crossing delays was not linked to Brexit, according to FT.
ECB’s de Guindos said headline inflation is likely to decline considerably this year but added that underlying inflation dynamics will remain strong, while he noted that feedback between higher profit margins, wages and prices could pose more lasting upside risks to inflation. De Guindos also stated that the ECB is monitoring broad risks across the financial sector and will act to preserve liquidity in the euro area, as well as noted the Euro area banking sector is resilient with strong capital and liquidity conditions although vulnerabilities in the financial system prevail in the non-bank financial sector which grew rapidly and increased its risk-taking during the low interest rate environment, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Panetta said there is a lot of discussion on wage growth and that they are probably paying insufficient attention to the other component of income which is profit.
BoE Chief Economist Pill says inflation is still much too high. UK banking system is strong, via Le Temps.
Italian Economy Minister Giorgetti said forecasts for 2023 are improving and they expect GDP variation in H1 to push overall projections up slightly but warned that higher interest rates intended to curb inflation could pose a threat to growth and said a recession should not be the price paid for fighting inflation via monetary policy, according to Reuters. – Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable.
French President Macron and European Commission President von der Leyen are to visit China between April 5th-7th, via Chinese Foreign Ministry
Finland’s opposition right-wing National Coalition Party is on course to win Sunday’s parliamentary election in a tight race with 48 out of 200 seats and the nationalist Finns Party are set to win 46 seats, while PM Marin’s Social Democrats are on track to win 43 seats. Furthermore, the National Coalition leader Orpo said it was a big win and that they will negotiate to form a new coalition government, according to Reuters.
FX
The USD derived initial support from the surprise OPEC+ move, pre-JMMC, which sent the DXY to a 103.06 peak as yields climb; however, it has since waned and is now in proximity to 102.50.
A pullback which has aided peers with petro-FX outperforming, USD/CAD below 1.35, while AUD outperforms and is back above 0.67 ahead of the RBA.
JPY resides at the other end of the spectrum as yield differentials weigh and the Tankan survey provided no support; USD/JPY eclipsed 133.50 from a 132.83 base.
GBP and EUR are near unchanged but well off initial lows as the USD’s strength wanes, with no real/sustained movement on Central Bank speak or final PMIs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8805 vs exp. 6.8820 (prev. 6.8717)
Fixed Income
Bonds are pressured by the OPEC+ action and associated inflation/monetary implications, though the complex has since pared much of the decline.
Action which has seen a spike in yields that is more pronounced at the short-end; German and US 10yr yields above 2.35% and 3.53% respectively.
Gilts and the EZ periphery have been moving in tandem with the above that has seen USTs pare to downside of less than 10 ticks ahead of Fed speak and ISM Manufacturing.
Commodities
Crude is bolstered though slightly off best levels after jumping at the resumption of trade following the surprise OPEC+ voluntary production cut.
Specifically, WTI and Brent remain at the top-end of USD 81.69-79.00/bbl and USD 86.44-83.50/bbl today’s parameters and well above Friday’s USD75.72/bbl and USD 79.80/bbl respective bests.
In metals, the complex is mostly lower with pressure stemming from the upside in yields and initial USD strength with the yellow metal moving below the USD 1968/oz 10-DMA.
OPEC+ members announced voluntary oil output cuts with Saudi Arabia to reduce production by 500k bpd from May until year-end and Russia will also cut by 500k bpd until year-end as a precautionary measure against further market volatility. Furthermore, Iraq is to lower output by 211k bpd, UAE will cut output by 144k bpd, Kuwait will cut 128k bpd and Oman will reduce output by 40k bpd, according to Reuters. It was also separately reported that more OPEC+ member states are expected to announce voluntary cuts, according to Energy Intel’s Bakr.
Iraq’s oil exports averaged 3.26mln bpd in March (prev. 3.30mln bpd in Feb.), while it was separately reported that Iraq’s government reached an initial deal with KRG to resume northern oil exports this week, according to Reuters.
US National Security Council spokesperson said they do not think OPEC+ production cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty which they have made clear and the Biden administration is focused on prices for US consumers and not barrels, while the Biden administration will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American consumers, according to Reuters.
EU Energy Commissioner Simson said the provision proposed by EU countries allowing a halt of Russian and Belarusian LNG imports is not yet law but is broadly supported and a very concrete step, while she added that the agreement on higher EU renewable targets is an ambitious deal and should help member states to upgrade national energy and climate plans, according to Reuters.
Russia has reportedly moved to Dubai benchmark in recent Indian oil deal for Urals, according to Reuters sources; Rosneft is to sell oil to India at a discount of USD 8-10/bbl to Dubai quotes, and on a delivered basis.
India extended export restrictions on gasoline and diesel as it seeks to ensure the availability of refined fuels for the domestic market, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military situation is especially hot around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Ukraine said its army still holds Bakhmut although the founder of Russia’s Wagner Group said the Russian flag was raised over the administration of Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces remained in western parts of the town.
Ukrainian military spokesperson says Bakhmut area is Ukrainian and Russian forecast are very far from capturing it.
A well-known Russian military blogger was killed and at least 25 people were injured from a bomb blast in a café in St Petersburg, Russia which was formally owned by Wagner Group head Prighozhin, according to BBC.
Russia’s ambassador to Belarus said Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will be moved to the western borders of the country, according to RIA.
US Secretary of State Blinken held a call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and discussed the arrest of US reporter Gerskovich who was accused of spying. Blinken conveyed US grave concern over the detention and called for an immediate release, while Russia said the reporter was caught red-handed and his fate will be determined by a court. Lavrov also said it was unacceptable for Washington to politicise the case and whip up a stir, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim’s sister said Ukrainian President Zelensky is risking his country and being politically ambitious for wanting nuclear weapons, while she added that Zelensky is wrong to think the US nuclear umbrella could protect Ukraine from Russia, according to KCNA.
US think tank said satellite images show an increasing level of activity at North Korea’s main nuclear site and that it may be close to completing a new reactor, according to NBC News.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Milley said on Friday that his understanding and analysis of China is that at least their military, and perhaps others, have come to some sort of conclusion that war with the US is inevitable although he reiterated that he doesn’t believe war is inevitable.
Iran claimed it chased off a US spy plane that entered Iranian air space near the Gulf of Oman, according to Tasnim.
Large explosions were reported in Syria’s capital Damascus which state media said were caused by a car bomb around the Mezzah military airport area.
US Event Calendar
09:45: March S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.3, prior 49.3
10:00: Feb. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
10:00: March ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.5, prior 47.7
March Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 14.6m, prior 14.9m
DB concludes the overnight wrap
This week marks the start of the second quarter of 2023. Before we dive into this week, we want to highlight the release of our regular performance review for Q1. It’s been a tumultuous start to the year in markets, with substantial volatility in March after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank led to fears about broader contagion across the banking system. However, despite the recent turmoil and the weakness among bank stocks, financial assets more broadly managed to record some strong gains over the quarter as a whole, with advances for equities, credit, sovereign bonds, EM assets and crypto. The only major exception to that pattern were commodities, with oil prices losing ground in every month of Q1 despite a strong rally last week. The full report can be seen here.
With the calendar flipping over we also want to highlight our how credit has continued to largely fallow our 2023 playbook. Obviously, we did not expect a banking crisis, which has led to €IG underperforming more than we initially expected. However, our views that Europe’s gas premium to the US would recede, that a US recession was not imminent as the monetary policy lag would take longer to play, and that less supply could keep HY & Loans tighter than expected has largely played out. Q1 ended with $IG spreads at 138bps, while $HY spreads were at 455bps. Both levels were within striking distance of our forecast from November; 140bps and 465bps respectively. €IG starts Q2 at 170bps (150bps forecasted), while €HY spreads are up to 481bps (450bps forecasted).
Over the weekend, OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an output cut starting in May that will exceed 1 million barrels a day. Russia has agreed to keep production at their current reduced level, while Saudi Arabia will see the largest cuts, slowing production by 500k barrels a day. The White House came out strongly against the move, due to concerns with consumer prices and the inflationary effects of higher fuel costs. It will take some time to see exactly how much this impacts global prices as demand concerns linger, but this is another potential factor exerting upward pressure on inflation after largely being an ameliorating factors this year. As we note above, oil prices fell every month for the last quarter, leading to the worst Q1 performance since 2020 when global shutdowns throttled demand. Brent crude futures are starting this quarter up +5.60% to $84.24/bbl, with WTI futures up +5.58% to $79.89/bbl after both initially were more than 8% higher at the start of trading.
Looking ahead to this week, the US jobs report on Friday should be the main focus. It will be the last jobs numbers before the next Fed meeting on May 3rd and markets will be looking for signs of cooling in the labour market after 475bps of tightening from the Fed over the last year. The report follows recent strong nonfarm payrolls beats, hotter-than-expected inflation data, and a 25bps Fed hike despite US regional bank concerns. Our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to gain +250k (vs +311k in February) and both the unemployment rate and hourly earnings growth to remain unchanged (3.6% and +0.2%, respectively). Prior to the Friday’s report, JOLTS (Tuesday) and ADP (Wednesday) data will also be in focus.
Today we will get a sense of how global growth evolved over the course of the month with the release of US ISM manufacturing data later on, followed by services on Wednesday. Coupled with the jobs report, whether the ISM indices also show robust growth, especially in components like employment and prices, will be key to assess economy’s resilience. Still, factors like the recent banking turmoil may not yet feed through to major economic indicators. Our US economists see both gauges declining from February levels (manufacturing 47.1 vs 47.7 and services 54.4 vs 55.1).
In Europe, the key data releases include trade balance (Tuesday), factory orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) for Germany, industrial production (Wednesday) and trade balance (Friday) in France as well as retail sales and PMIs for Italy. Our European economists overview what the latest prints on those indicators, among others, say about the European economy here, providing context for this week’s readings. Going forward, they underscore the recent banking stress as a new headwind and see risks as being tilted to the downside.
The major data points out of Asia include the China Caixin PMI data and Japan Tankan indices which we highlight below along with Japanese labour cash earnings and household spending on Friday. Friday’s data are expected to show total cash earnings per worker at 0.9% YoY, up from January’s 0.8%, and real household spending down -0.2% MoM vs 2.7% in January.
Asian equity markets are trading slightly higher, catching up to the late US rally last week and shrugging off the surprise production cut from OPEC+. As I type, the Nikkei (+0.33%), the KOSPI (+0.28%), the CSI (+0.40%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) are holding on to their opening gains whilst the Hang Seng (-0.27%) is bucking the regional trend. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are trading in the red with those tied to the S&P 500 (-0.33%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.73%) edging lower after a spree of positive sessions last week. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr Treasuries (+4.34bps) have risen to 3.51% with the 2yr Treasury yields jumping +7.85bps to 4.10% as fears over inflation are stoked by rising oil prices.
Overnight in Japan, the Tankan manufacturer sentiment index deteriorated to 1.0 in March (3.0 expected; 7.0 last quarter) for its fifth straight quarterly decline and reaching the worst level since December 2020. Meanwhile, the business mood among big non-manufacturers’ improved for a fourth quarter to +20.0 (20.0 expected) from +19.0 in December, as hopes of a recovery in tourism abound after the country reopened its borders.
Elsewhere, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for March dropped to 50.0 (51.4 expected) from a eight-month high of 51.6 in February, indicating that growth in the nation’s manufacturing sector remains subdued after an initial post-COVID bounce.
In FX, the euro is down -0.31% to $1.0805, hovering near a one-week low, while the Japanese yen weakened -0.18% to 133.10 per dollar as we go to press.
Now, looking back on last week. On Friday, we had a wave of key economic data, including the key US February Core PCE price index which came in softer than consensus at 0.3% month-on-month (+0.4% expected), down from 0.6%. In year-on-year terms the print was also below expectations, at 5.0% (vs. 5.1% expected). Along the same lines, the University of Michigan’s measure of 1 year inflation expectations came down two tenths to 3.6% (vs 3.8% expected), although 5-to-10-year expectations rose to 2.9% (vs 2.8% expected). We had a similar downside surprise for the March Euro Area CPI release, coming in at 0.9% month-on-month (vs 1.1% expected), and 6.9% year-on-year (vs 7.1% expected), down from 8.5% the previous month.There was little response in the fed futures market following said data releases. The rate priced in for the Fed’s next meeting in May climbed a modest +0.6bps on Friday, and +9.8bps on the week, leaving the market-implied probability of a hike in May at 58%.
With the inflation data clearly softer than anticipated, equity markets finished the week well in the green with the S&P 500 rising +3.48% (+1.44% on Friday), extending its rally for a third consecutive day. US banks have continued to recover from their turmoil in mid-March, with the S&P 500 banks climbing a strong +4.50% week-on-week (+0.93% on Friday) and the KBW index, which captures US regional banks, up +4.60% last week (+0.89% Friday). The NASDAQ closed the week up +3.37% (+1.74% on Friday) after a strong performance by the technology sector, locking in its best quarter since 2020. European equity outperformed, as the STOXX 600 climbed +4.03% week-on-week (+0.66% on Friday).
Although equities were on the up over last week, there was a large sell-off in weekly terms in fixed income as banking sector jitters subsided and risk-on sentiment prevailed. US 10yr Treasury yields rose +9.2bps (-8.1bps on Friday), their largest up move since the last week of February. The sell-off was greater for 2yrs as yields rose +25.9bps week-on-week (-9.4bps on Friday), the greatest gain since September. This story was echoed in Europe, as 10yr bund yields climbed +16.3bps (-8.4bps on Friday) last week in its largest up move since before Christmas. German 2yr yields fell back -6.6bps on Friday, while jumping +29.0bps week-on-week.
Finally in commodities, oil continued rallying on Friday as supply remains constrained as protests in Europe have shut down refineries and an Iraqi-Kurdish-Turkish dispute keeps a key pipeline turned off, with WTI crude (+1.75%) and brent crude (+0.63%) up on Friday to close the week at $75.67/bbl and $79.77/bbl respectively. In week-on-week terms, Brent crude closed up +6.37% and WTI contracts +9.25%. Gas also rallied, as European natural gas futures ended the week up +16.42%, with more than half of these gains occurring on Friday (+9.71%) on reports of cooler weather expected through April and supply risks of their own.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Crude outperforms after a surprise OPEC+ cut; US ISM & Bullard due – Newsquawk Euro Market Open
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 08:46 AM
APAC stocks were mostly positive amid strength in the energy sector although gains in the broader market were capped as participants digested disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Crude rose following the surprise voluntary output cuts by OPEC+ members totalling over 1mln bpd from May through to year-end.
Fed’s Waller (Voter) said the recent data is consistent with the idea that inflation can be brought down quickly with relatively little harm to the jobs market.
European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.7% on Friday.
DXY is firmer vs. peers and on a 103 handle, JPY lags the majors, EUR/USD is sub-1.08.
Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing and Speech from Fed’s Bullard.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks and bonds picked up into the close on Friday as month- and quarter-end flows made their mark, while Fed pricing moved marginally more dovish after the February Core PCE data came in below expectations and added weight to the month-end duration bid. Furthermore, the Chicago PMI data saw a surprise rise and the University of Michigan consumer survey was revised lower alongside the short-term inflation expectations (3.6% from 3.8%), although the longer-term measure saw a slight increase (2.9% from 2.8%).
SPX +1.44% at 4,109, NDX +1.68% at 13,181, DJIA +1.26% at 33,274, RUT +1.93% at 1,802.
Fed’s Cook (Voter) said she is weighing implications of stronger momentum in the economy against potential headwinds from recent developments and that US policy outlook must balance data dependence with forward-looking analysis. Cook also said that the appropriate path of Fed policy rate may be lower than otherwise if tighter conditions constrain the economy and noted that recent bank developments may suggest greater headwinds for financial conditions and the economy, while she added that they may have more work to do if data shows continued economic strength and that monetary policy is now in restrictive territory, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Waller (Voter) said the recent data is consistent with the idea that inflation can be brought down quickly with relatively little harm to the jobs market and defeating high inflation could require dramatic actions from the Fed to puncture expectations if people have started to believe that prices will just keep on rising, according to Reuters.
Former US President Trump faces multiple charges on falsifying business records and at least one felony charge in the New York hush money probe, according to sources cited by AP.
Tesla (TSLA) rolled out a record number of new cars in Q1 in which deliveries rose 4% Q/Q to around 422.9k vehicles, according to FT.
CREDIT SUISSE
Switzerland’s Attorney General is to investigate whether the Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) takeover by UBS (UBSN SW) broke Swiss criminal law and is looking into potential breaches by government officials, regulators and bank executives, according to The Guardian.
Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) expands its sustainability offering for corporate clients through a new partnership with Act Cleantech Agentur Schweiz, while it was separately reported that UBS (UBS SW) shortlisted four consultants for the Credit Suisse integration and UBS will cut its workforce by between 20%-30% after completing the takeover.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly positive amid strength in the energy sector after oil prices were boosted by a surprise voluntary output cut by OPEC+ members although gains in the broader market were capped heading into this week’s key events and as participants digested a slew of data releases including disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
ASX 200 was underpinned by the energy-related gains and with money market pricing leaning heavily towards a pause at tomorrow’s RBA meeting, while analysts are near-evenly split between a hike and a pause.
Nikkei 225 notched modest gains with upside capped following the mixed Tankan survey in which the large manufacturers’ sentiment index deteriorated for the 5th consecutive quarter and fell to its lowest since December 2020.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with price action cautious after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI showed activity was flat in March and following a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC.
US equity futures (ES -0.3%) lacklustre with markets second-guessing the ramifications of higher oil prices for Fed policy.
European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.7% on Friday.
FX
DXY was kept afloat against its major peers and sits on a 103 handle amid higher yields as the boost in oil prices stoked inflationary pressures and after some comments from central bank officials including from Fed’s Cook who said they may have more work to do if data shows continued economic strength.
EUR/USD retreated beneath 1.0800 as it lost ground against the buck and with somewhat mixed rhetoric from ECB’s de Guindos that headline inflation is likely to decline considerably but underlying inflation dynamics will remain strong.
GBP/USD extended on Friday’s retreat to sub-1.2300 after a relatively quiet weekend for UK-specific newsflow.
USD/JPY was positive amid widening US-Japan short-end yield differentials and a mixed Tankan survey.
Antipodeans were subdued heading into this week’s central bank policy decisions from both the RBA and RBNZ.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8805 vs exp. 6.8820 (prev. 6.8717)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures pulled back after last Friday’s gains which were helped by the softer-than-expected PCE data, while the retreat was largely due to the advances in oil prices and their potential to spur inflationary concerns.
Bund futures traded rangebound with prices lacklustre after failing to hold above the 136.00 level.
10yr JGB futures were pressured amid the lack of additional purchases by the BoJ which also widened the ranges of potential buying amounts for this month’s scheduled government bond purchases.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures jumped around 7% at the reopening of futures trading following the surprise voluntary output cuts by OPEC+ members totalling over 1mln bpd from May through to year-end with the bulk of the reduction to come from Saudi Arabia, while Russia’s Deputy PM Novak also announced that their 500k bpd reduction will last to the end of the year.
OPEC+ members announced voluntary oil output cuts with Saudi Arabia to reduce production by 500k bpd from May until year-end and Russia will also cut by 500k bpd until year-end as a precautionary measure against further market volatility. Furthermore, Iraq is to lower output by 211k bpd, UAE will cut output by 144k bpd, Kuwait will cut 128k bpd and Oman will reduce output by 40k bpd, according to Reuters. It was also separately reported that more OPEC+ member states are expected to announce voluntary cuts, according to Energy Intel’s Bakr.
Iraq’s oil exports averaged 3.26mln bpd in March (prev. 3.30mln bpd in Feb.), while it was separately reported that Iraq’s government reached an initial deal with KRG to resume northern oil exports this week, according to Reuters.
US National Security Council spokesperson said they do not think OPEC+ production cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty which they have made clear and the Biden administration is focused on prices for US consumers and not barrels, while the Biden administration will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American consumers, according to Reuters.
EU Energy Commissioner Simson said the provision proposed by EU countries allowing a halt of Russian and Belarusian LNG imports is not yet law but is broadly supported and a very concrete step, while she added that the agreement on higher EU renewable targets is an ambitious deal and should help member states to upgrade national energy and climate plans, according to Reuters.
India extended export restrictions on gasoline and diesel as it seeks to ensure the availability of refined fuels for the domestic market, according to Reuters.
Spot gold was pressured by a firmer dollar and as higher oil prices spurred some Fed rate hike bets.
Copper futures declined steadily after the disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was lower overnight and retreated beneath the USD 28,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC called for stronger defences against a financial crisis and said that China should accelerate legislation of the Financial Stability Law, as well as improve other legal arrangements to prevent and dispose of financial risks, according to three central bank officials in PBoC-affiliated publication China Finance.
Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin and expressed concern regarding the situation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while Hayashi raised the issue with Premier Li regarding a detained Japanese national who was trying to promote Japanese investment in China and Hayashi was also reported to have met with Politburo member Wang Yi. Furthermore, Japan urged China to view the Ukraine war from a rule of law perspective and take responsible actions in the UN Security Council, while China pressed Japan to change course on chip export curbs, according to Reuters and FT.
US called for joint G7 action against China’s economic bullying, according to Nikkei.
US lawmakers are to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai, Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook and Disney (DIS) CEO Iger, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 50.0 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 51.6)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q1) 1 vs. Exp. 3 (Prev. 7)
Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 3 vs. Exp. 4 (Prev. 6)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 20 vs. Exp. 20 (Prev. 19)
Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 15 vs. Exp. 16 (Prev. 11)
Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q1) 3.2% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 19.2%)
GLOBAL NEWS
Finland’s opposition right-wing National Coalition Party is on course to win Sunday’s parliamentary election in a tight race with 48 out of 200 seats and the nationalist Finns Party are set to win 46 seats, while PM Marin’s Social Democrats are on track to win 43 seats. Furthermore, the National Coalition leader Orpo said it was a big win and that they will negotiate to form a new coalition government, according to Reuters.
A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck New Guinea, Papua New Guinea region although the US Tsunami Warning Centre said there was no tsunami threat following the earthquake, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICAL
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military situation is especially hot around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Ukraine said its army still holds Bakhmut although the founder of Russia’s Wagner Group said the Russian flag was raised over the administration of Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces remained in western parts of the town.
A well-known Russian military blogger was killed and at least 25 people were injured from a bomb blast in a café in St Petersburg, Russia which was formally owned by Wagner Group head Prighozhin, according to BBC.
Russia’s ambassador to Belarus said Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will be moved to the western borders of the country, according to RIA.
US Secretary of State Blinken held a call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and discussed the arrest of US reporter Gerskovich who was accused of spying. Blinken conveyed US grave concern over the detention and called for an immediate release, while Russia said the reporter was caught red-handed and his fate will be determined by a court.Lavrov also said it was unacceptable for Washington to politicise the case and whip up a stir, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim’s sister said Ukrainian President Zelensky is risking his country and being politically ambitious for wanting nuclear weapons, while she added that Zelensky is wrong to think the US nuclear umbrella could protect Ukraine from Russia, according to KCNA.
US think tank said satellite images show an increasing level of activity at North Korea’s main nuclear site and that it may be close to completing a new reactor, according to NBC News.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Milley said on Friday that his understanding and analysis of China is that at least their military, and perhaps others, have come to some sort of conclusion that war with the US is inevitable although he reiterated that he doesn’t believe war is inevitable.
Iran claimed it chased off a US spy plane that entered Iranian air space near the Gulf of Oman, according to Tasnim.
Large explosions were reported in Syria’s capital Damascus which state media said wer caused by a car bomb around the Mezzah military airport area.
EU/UK
Hundreds of UK travellers faced disruptions for the third day at the Port of Dover as ministers insisted that the cause for the Channel crossing delays was not linked to Brexit, according to FT.
ECB’s de Guindos said headline inflation is likely to decline considerably this year but added that underlying inflation dynamics will remain strong, while he noted that feedback between higher profit margins, wages and prices could pose more lasting upside risks to inflation. De Guindos also stated that the ECB is monitoring broad risks across the financial sector and will act to preserve liquidity in the euro area, as well as noted the Euro area banking sector is resilient with strong capital and liquidity conditions although vulnerabilities in the financial system prevail in the non-bank financial sector which grew rapidly and increased its risk-taking during the low interest rate environment, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Panetta said there is a lot of discussion on wage growth and that they are probably paying insufficient attention to the other component of income which is profit.
Italian Economy Minister Giorgetti said forecasts for 2023 are improving and they expect GDP variation in H1 to push overall projections up slightly but warned that higher interest rates intended to curb inflation could pose a threat to growth and said a recession should not be the price paid for fighting inflation via monetary policy, according to Reuters. – Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.70 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 9.07 PTS OR 0.04% /The Nikkei closed UP 146.67 PTS OR 1.52 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.58 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8789 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8636 /Oil UP TO 80.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.03/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/RUSSIA/OIL
Anti-Russia Alliance Splinters As Japan Buys Russian Oil At Price Above Cap; Others To Follow
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 05:30 AM
Today OPEC+ woke up and chose scorched-earth war against the Fed.
That’s because while the US central bank is already trapped, and is desperately looking for any excuse to halt its tightening campaign now that inflation is accelerating to the downside not just because regional banks desperately need a lower Fed Funds rate to short-circuit the relentless deposit drain which won’t stop (and will lead to even more bank failures and resolutions) until their deposit rates can at least match those of the Fed, but also because various liberal rags have already thrown Powell, pardon, the “Trump-era holdover” under the bus for the coming recession…
… OPEC’s shocking shot across the Fed and Biden bow revealed in its intention to keep oil prices high even as central banks push the world into a recession, just made life for the central planners very difficult, as the sordid stench of stagflation is suddenly all over the place.
But while much will be said about the monetary consequences of OPEC’s action, which may be viewed as sealing the fate of countless small banks in an act that any objective person would deem monetary warfare by the anti-Western alliance of China, Russia, and now Saudi Arabia, the complexity of which can be summarized as follows…
… there is a much simpler, if far more impactful geopolitical consequence of today’s post-OPEC news price surge.
Readers may recall that one of the reasons why oil first exploded a year ago, then drifted ever lower before hitting a 16 month low just two weeks ago, is because it only gradually became apparent that despite the bluster and posturing, most Western nations – with the exception of a few truly stupid ones – realized that they never intended to truly sanction Russian oil exports int he aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. Much to the chagrin of Zelensky, this meant that despite their dramatic, Oscar-worthy anti-Putin monologues, western leaders never actually intended to halt Russia’s commodity exporting machine as the consequences for the west would be far more dire.
That’s why when the Russian $60 export price cap was being debated a few months ago, the US quickly quashed any debate for lowering the cap even more as it would mean truly limiting how much oil Russia could export. You see, $60 was a perfect price: as long as Brent traded around $80, Russian Urals – which has traded with a 25-30% discount to Brent – would be comfortably below the cap and any and all Western countries that needed Russian oil could buy it, in the process explicitly funding the Russian military machine that they so vocally oppose by funneling money to the Kiev regime (knowing very well most of that money will be embezzled and will be never seen again).
But where things get problematic is if and when oil prices jump – like they did today – because a spike in Brent also means that Russian Urals will go right up with it. In fact, if Brent rises above $85 or so, Urals hits $60… and if it goes higher, it’s game over for the farce that has passed for Russian oil export sanctions.
Which brings us to today because as the chart below shows, Urals just hit $60 and any further increases in its price mean that virtually everyone in the anti-Russian west is suddenly cutoff from Putin’s oil.
What happens then? Will western nations follow sanction guidelines and stop buying Russian oil, which means sending the price of all non-Russian oil sharply higher (even as India and China step up and buy whatever western importers no longer desire), or will the anti-Russia alliance splinter?
While we are confident that many governments will do the former even if it means more hardship for their citizens, if only to signal their virtue and keep the US state department happy, some are already showing that the anti-Russian alliance isn’t worth the paper it is written on in carbon credits.
Japan is one such nation.
As the WSJ reports today, one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia is now buying oil at prices above the cap, in effect breaking with the sanctions regime imposed by US allies.
As the note adds, Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian energy. The concession shows Japan’s reliance on Russia for fossil fuels, which analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to back Ukraine more fully in its war with Russia. It also shows why the price cap was imposed at a level where it doesn’t actually adversely impact Russian oil exports. But the current price surge means that unless the price cap is lifted, the U.S. alliance is about to shoot itself in the leg.
Going back to Japan, it’s the one country which – at a time when most European countries have at least claimed they are reducing their reliance on Russian energy supplies – has stepped up its purchases of Russian natural gas over the past year. Japan is the only Group of Seven nation not to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was the last G-7 leader to visit Ukraine after Russia’s invasion.
In the first two months of this year, Japan bought about 748,000 barrels of Russian oil for a total of ¥6.9 billion, according to official trade statistics. At the current exchange rate, that translates to $52 million, or just under $70 a barrel.
Of course, Japan will never admit that Russia has leverage over its energy needs, and there has been a diarrhea of hollow rhetoric in recent days seeking to dispell speculation the Japan’s New PM Fumio Kishida is Putin’s bitch:
Mr. Kishida has said the G-7 summit he is hosting this May in his hometown of Hiroshima will demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine. Tokyo has said it is committed to supporting Kyiv and can’t send weapons because of longstanding export restrictions the cabinet has imposed on itself.
“We absolutely will not allow Russia’s outrageous act, and we are imposing strict sanctions on Russia in order to stop Russia’s invasion as soon as possible,” said chief government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno.
But empty rhetoric aside, the oil purchases which have been authorized by the U.S., represent a break in the unity of U.S.-led efforts to impose a global $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil.
The cap works because oil-buying nations, even if they aren’t aligned with the U.S., generally need to use insurance and other services from companies based in the U.S. or one of its allies. The G-7, the European Union and Australia have agreed to rules forbidding those companies from furnishing services if a buyer of Russian oil is paying more than $60 a barrel.
The nations last year granted an exception to the cap through Sept. 30 for oil purchased by Japan from the Sakhalin-2 project in Russia’s Far East. An official of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Tokyo wanted to ensure access to Sakhalin-2’s main product, natural gas, which is liquefied and shipped to Japan. “We have done this with an eye toward having a stable supply of energy for Japan,” the official said.
He said a small quantity of crude oil is extracted alongside the natural gas at Sakhalin-2 and needs to be sold to ensure liquefied natural gas, or LNG, production continues. “The price is decided by negotiations between the two parties,” he said. Russia accounts for nearly one-tenth of Japan’s natural-gas imports, most of it from Sakhalin-2, and the quantity bought by Japan last year was 4.6% greater than in the previous year.
That marks a contrast with Germany, which relied on Russia for 55% of its natural-gas imports before the war and survived a complete cutoff through a quick remodeling of its import infrastructure. Germany’s economy grew last year faster than Japan’s, bucking forecasts of a German recession triggered by the cutoff of Russian gas. Of course, instead of being as reliant on Russian gas, Germany is becoming far more reliant on US LNG shipments. How long until the undue reliance on US goodwill for a country that is one of China’s largest trading partners comes back to bite it?
“It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.”
Guess they are not “really serious about supporting Ukraine.”
But they are not alone: and once Urals rises above $60 for all nations that buy the cheap Russian grade, we are about to find out how many other nations are also not serious about supporting Ukraine, and will promptly exit the anti-Russian alliance if it means access to Russian oil at just over $60 or paying Riyadh $80, $90, or $100 (or more) for the exact same cargo.
Japan has almost no fossil fuel of its own and relies on imported natural gas and coal for much of its electricity. Officials have said it would be self-defeating to give up access to the Russian liquefied natural gas because Russia could turn around and sell the LNG to China.
In addition to the price cap, the U.S. and many of its allies have largely banned the import of Russian oil into their own countries.
While US officials had said for months that the cap has been generally successful in pushing down Russia’s oil revenue while stabilizing global oil markets, that is about to change thanks to the surprise OPEC+ (where Russia is a key member) production cut, one which will inevitably lift Urals price above $60, triggering sanctions for anyone who buys it.
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/SAUDI ARABIA
A big step towards negating USA hegemony
(zer0hedge)
Saudi Arabia Joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization As It Embraces China
While the US continues to splinter and cannibalize itself as it turns into a third world country, China is expanding its zone of economic and military influence that covers virtually all global commodity producers as it prepares for the next stage in the Sino-US cold war.
On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s cabinet approved a decision to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as Riyadh builds a long-term partnership with China despite – or perhaps due to – US security concerns. Saudi Arabia has approved a memorandum on granting the kingdom the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), state news agency SPA said.
The SCO is a political and security union of countries spanning much of Eurasia, including China, India and Russia. Formed in 2001 by Russia, China and former Soviet states in Central Asia, the body has been expanded to include India and Pakistan, with a view to playing a bigger role as counterweight to Western influence in the region. Iran also signed documents for full membership last year.
Joining the SCO was discussed during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia last December, sources told Reuters, adding that dialogue partner status will be a first step within the organization before granting the kingdom full membership in the mid-term.
The decision followed an announcement by Saudi Aramco which raised its multi-billion dollar investment in China on Tuesday, by finalizing a planned joint venture in northeast China and acquiring a stake in a privately controlled petrochemical group.
Riyadh’s growing ties with Beijing have raised security concerns in Washington, its traditional ally but increasingly less so, especially following Biden’s catastrophic attempts to force OPEC+ to boost oil production, an overture which backfired spectacularly and to global humiliation by the Biden admin.
Meanwhile, Washington says Chinese attempts to exert influence around the world will not change U.S. policy toward the Middle East, which of course is a lie.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have voiced concern about what they see as a withdrawal from the region by main security guarantor the United States, and have moved to diversify partners, shifting their alliance to the biggest US challenger in the global arena. Washington says it will stay an active partner in the region.
Countries belonging to the organisation plan to hold a joint “counter-terrorism exercise” in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region in August this year.
end
CHINA
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UBS/CREDIT SUISSE
UBS May Slash 36,000 Positions Following Credit Suisse Takeover
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 09:45 AM
The forced bail-in sale of Credit Suisse to UBS will lead to a staggering number of job cuts, ranging from 20% to 30%, which equates to a reduction of approximately 25,000 to 36,000 positions, as reported by SonntagsZeitung newspaper, quoting insiders.
Earlier this month, UBS agreed to acquire its struggling competitor Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.3 billion). Before the takeover, Credit Suisse was already undergoing restructuring, which involved letting go over 9,000 staff members. The expected job cuts after the takeover are now considerably greater than initially estimated.
According to the Swiss newspaper, as many as 11,000 employees may face layoffs in Switzerland. The combined workforce of the two banks topped 125,000 at the end of 2022, with nearly 30% of these employees based in Switzerland. Also, a number of jobs at its US investment bank unit will be affected.
Although layoffs are imminent, UBS has yet to provide any specific timeline for these cost-cutting measures, which hasn’t stopped anxious Credit Suisse employees from contacting Deutsche Bank AG, Citigroup Inc., and JPMorgan Chase & Co. for new employment opportunities. Meanwhile, Nomura has said it has ‘no intentions‘ of hiring Credit Suisse employees.
Separately, in a surprise announcement last week, UBS announced its previous head, Sergio Ermotti, will reassume the role of CEO on Wednesday to supervise the merger. We suspect that once Ermotti assumes control of the biggest banks in Switzerland, the firings may begin.
GERMANY
It is about time: German’s refused to support net zero emissions by 2030
(zerohedge)
Body Blow To Activists: Whopping 82% Of Berlin’s Voters Refused To Support Net Zero 2030 As Referendum Fails
The results of Berlin’s Climate Neutrality By 2030 referendum tell us that FFF and Last Generation are fringe movements, remote of even Berlin’s mainstream.
It’ll take a longtime for the radical climate activists to recover from this major setback
The movement’s leaders reacted in disbelief and sourly to the defeat, as Twitter account holder Georg tweeted:
Da haben Luisa und ihre Klima-Kreuzritter wohl nicht damit gerechnet, dass 85% mit NEIN stimmen oder erst gar nicht zur Abstimmung gehen.
Last Sunday’s “Berlin Climate Neutrality By 2030” referendum failed resoundingly despite the more than a million euros spent in a massive run-up campaign that included plastering the city with posters, concerts by famous performers, huge support and propaganda by the media and hefty donations coming from left wing activists from the east and west coasts of USA.
Once the dust of the referendum had settled, it emerged that the “yes” side fell way short of the quorum 608,000 votes needed to pass the measure. Only 442,210 cast a vote in favor, which represents only 18% of Berlin’s eligible voters. The activists expected a far greater turnout. 82% refused to lend any support.
Berlin’s rejection of the climate neutrality by 2030 mandate is a massive body blow to the the radical Fridays for Future and Last Generation movement in Germany, and it will take months for the radicals to recover, it ever, from this setback.
The Berlin initiative to make the city climate neutral by 2030 was led by rich, upper class youths like Luisa “Longhaul” Neubauer. But Berliners, having been harassed for months by activists gluing themselves to the streets and blocking traffic, saw the folly of the initiative and the high costs it would entail politically and financially. They decided resoundingly they’d wanted no part of it.
Lashing out at the majority
The agony of referendum defeat was palpable as some of its leaders reacted by lashing out and insulting those who refused to vote “yes”, In a video, movement co-leader Luisa Neubauer sank into cynical accusations against the majority, even calling the uncooperative Berliners “fossil cynics” and “climate destroyers”.
Neubauer added:
“There are forces in this city that are doing everything to get the last spark of climate destruction out.”
In Neubauer’s view these forces include the vast 82% of Berliners who refused to vote “yes”. So troublesome democracy can be.
Social Democrat Dario Schramm wept on Twitter at the gloating that would now come from the other side. But he and other supporters of the green ban politics need not be surprised. For years they have been spreading their ideas of good politics for years in a self-righteous, arrogant and sometimes aggressive manner.
They, mostly members of the upper middle class, have declared war on the lower and lower middle class with their destructive climate measures. Outside the Berlin political bubble and the other urban feel-good oases of Germany, the Neubauers of this world never possessed much support. And now the bubble has finally burst. In the Marzahn, Köpenick and Lichtenberg districts, the majority of voters voted against the referendum. The normal working population of Berlin decided against the journalistic and political elite.”
But don’t expect the climate radicals to go away. They’ll be back at it soon enough.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Wagner Raises Russian Flag In Center Of Bakhmut, But Fighting Still Rages
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Russia’s Wagner paramilitary group in the overnight hours on Monday has claimed victory (or at least a partial victory) over Bakhmut by raising the Russian flag as well as its own PMC Wanger Group flag over central government administration buildings of Bakhmut.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin described that the key city in Donetsk is “ours” but only in a “legal sense”. He wrote on Telegram: “The commanders of the units that took city hall and the whole center will go and put up this flag,” he said in reference to a Russian flag being raised in the accompanying video. “This is the Wagner private military company, these are the guys who took Bakhmut. In a legal sense, it’s ours.”
About two weeks ago Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and Russian forces controlled 70% of the utterly destroyed town, and as the Ukrainians were mounting a stiff defense, pouring more resources into the months-long fight.
Hours prior to Prigozhin video showing the flag-raising against a dark night sky, the Ukrainian general staff acknowledged that “the enemy has not stopped its assault of Bakhmut… Ukrainian defenders are courageously holding the city as they repel numerous enemy attacks.”
The announcement was meant to convey that the Ukrainian Army still considers that it “holds” Bakhmut. Russian sources say Ukrainian fighters are still concentrated on the Western outskirts.
However, going into the weekend it was already clear that Wagner fighters were on the cusp of taking the city center…
On Sunday President Zelensky was still sounding somewhat optimistic regarding the fate of Bakhmut:
“I am grateful to our warriors who are fighting near Avdiivka, Maryinka, near Bakhmut… Especially Bakhmut! It’s especially hot there today!” Zelensky said in his own post to Telegram.
Near Bakhmut, about 27 kilometres (17 miles) away in Kostyantynivka, a “massive attack” of Russian missiles left three men and three women dead and eleven wounded Sunday, Ukrainian authorities said.
Zelensky said the affected zones are “just residential areas”, where “ordinary civilians of an ordinary city of Donbas” were targeted.
Zelensky in an interview last week suggested that he may be forced to negotiate with Russia if his forces are definitively defeated at Bakhmut, while also hinting at huge losses.END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Third Night Of Israeli Airstrikes On Syria Target Homs
Israeli warplanes launched yet another attack on Syria early on Sunday, striking a number of targets in the central Syrian city of Homs from Lebanese airspace, Syrian state-news outlet SANA reported.
The strikes resulted in the wounding of five Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers and the infliction of some material damages. “At around 00:35 a.m. on Sunday, the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial act of aggression from the direction of northeastern Beirut, targeting some sites in the city of Homs and its countryside… Our air defenses intercepted the missiles and shot some of them down, and the aggression resulted in the injury of five army personnel and some material damages,” a Syrian military source was quoted as saying by SANA.
According to Persian media, an Iranian advisor who had been injured during Friday’s Israeli attack on Damascus died after succumbing to his injuries.
“Meqdad Mehghani was wounded during the Zionist attack on Friday dawn and was martyred,” Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Sunday.
This is Israel’s sixth attack on Syria since the devastating February 6 earthquake struck the country, and the ninth Israeli attack on Syria since the beginning of the new year. This is also the third Israeli attack on Syria in just four days.
In the early hours of March 30, Syrian air defense systems were activated to counter missile attacks on Damascus. The following day, early on Friday March 31, Israel struck the Syrian capital once again, killing Iranian military advisor and officer Milad Heydari. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed a retaliation.
Israel’s airstrikes on Syria are illegal under international law, but happen very frequently under the pretext of targeting Iranian and Hezbollah targets. More often than not, however, the strikes target the SAA.
In a statement condemning Friday’s “barbaric” attack on Damascus, the Syrian Defense Ministry claimed that Israel’s constant airstrikes against Syria are carried out in coordination with extremist militants. Over the years, Israel has played a deep role in the Syrian conflict, and has provided direct support to extremist groups fighting against Syria.
dana on Twitter: “”Switching to national currencies is a violation of the rights of American citizens.” The White House threatened with sanctions those countries that refuse the dollar in mutual settlements. Is there no end to the embarrassing statements of our White House? The incompetence of… https://t.co/nqB0KQ8ubF” / Twitter
Robert Hryniak
2:10 AM (5 hours ago)
to
Really? Switching to national currency is a right of nations and companies to decide how to settle trade for goods they want or sell. This is of course that a Selling party will account and accept a given national currency. American citizen’s rights are not violated at all. What this does clearly show is how disconnected the Ship of Fools is from the reality of the waters they are in. OPEC has announced a million barrel reduction in oil flow starting May1. And what is being said? Does America really try on gunboat diplomacy on Saudi Arabia? Or does anyone in Europe or the US really understand that the flow of energy while being reduced will be much more expensive? The world runs on energy and its’ price affects economies. And it makes sanctions on Russia’s oil that much more naive since it is no longer available. Where will Europe and America find such supply? Because in effect the Western world is being delivered an oil shock in price that will send prices up across the board on everything. What will the reaction be when the USD is rejected as payment for oil? As it is the price in USD will rise. The truth is the USD is being rejected in trade settlement as acceptable medium of value exchange and there is nothing that the US can do to stop this because sanctions only work when there is no alternative. And currency imposition in trade settlement only works when there are no choices; and that clearly is not the case. Today the majority of the world sees the US Neocons for what they are and wants no part of this, anymore. The EU and NATO are even worse as their whole existence is wobbly at best and they need a means of a reset of currency prior to collapse. And the hegemony of the Federal Reserve Dollar is what really being reduced while its’ role globally is diminished. The fact that Central Banks are using their holdings of Treasuries to provide liquidity having them bought at par value while market value is far less tells the whole story. The game plan behind the curtain was to institute a digital currency come this fall. However the timeline has been altered by events occurring such a no collapse of Russia; no winning on the part of Ukraine, other than Zelensky becoming a billionaire on the blood and death of Ukrainians. Even the multitude of countries wanting to join BRICS was not considered or that Saudi Arabia and Iran would make up making hostilities disappear and not allowing division or strife. Soon even the Syrian mess will be cleansed with America being booted out forcibly. The carrier in the Med will not alter upcoming events. Nor will the NATO exercises come June. Going into Ukraine will send not just body bags back but will serve to collapse the EU. More astute nations will sit this out rather than roll the dice. Besides within the next 10-14 days the truth will surface about the ten’s of thousands of Ukrainians slaughtered in Bakhmut sent there to die in vain while others handsomely profited. Watch the hysteria of noise that comes. Within several months many things will start to change and chaos will occasion as civil unrest hits new levels. Yes, there will be a reset only it will be one quite different than what was expected.
According to a recent study by Cedars Sinai, there was a nearly 30 percent increase in deaths from heart attacks in adults 25 to 44 years old during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
‘According to a recent study by Cedars Sinai, there was a nearly 30 percent increase in deaths from heart attacks in adults 25 to 44 years old during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.1 In the first year of the pandemic, the number of deaths due to heart attack increased by 14 percent from the previous year. However, this number skyrocketed to a 29.9 percent increase by the end of 2021.2 Marty Makary, MD, professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and oncology surgeon believes the sharp rise in heart attack deaths in the second year of the pandemic is due to widespread use of COVID shots and not solely caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself.3
Dr. Makary said:
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
We did not see the uptake before the vaccine was rolled out, but, young people were primarily affected around that same time as well. The state of Florida did their own study, looking at heart attacks after the vaccine in particular, and found that there was an 81 percent increase in sudden death from heart attacks in the months following the vaccine compared to baseline rates. So many people do believe that the vaccine is one of the causes of heart problems in young people.4
Florida Department of Health Warns Young Men About COVID-19 Shot Risks
In October 2022, the Florida Health Department released an analysis of the COVID shots, showing that there was an 84 percent increased risk of cardiac related deaths in men 18 to 39 years old, particularly within 28 days of getting vaccinated. The Florida Health Department amended its guidelines as follows:
Based on currently available data, patients should be informed of the possible cardiac complications that can arise after receiving a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac related death among men in this age group.5
Dr. Makary agrees with the Florida Health Department stating that healthy young adults, especially males, should not receive the COVID shots due to their link to myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) especially in young adults after the second shot. He maintains the data supports the theory that myocarditis is more common after the vaccine than after a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Dr. Makary points out that young men are 28 times more likely to suffer from myocarditis after the shot compared to after having the viral infection, and that young men are nine times more likely to get myocarditis than young women. The long-term effects of myocarditis brought on from the COVID shots are not yet known.6
Dr. Makary explained why young adults should avoid the vaccine…
They have the lowest benefit from a vaccine because they are the lowest risk of any COVID complications. We still don’t know if any young, healthy person has ever died of COVID in the United States. The CDC won’t tell us, and they’ve never broken the data down by young people who are healthy versus had a comorbidity like leukemia or an immunosuppression condition.7
CDC Still Recommends COVID-19 Shots Despite the Risks
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cites that between December 2020 through August 2021 there have been 52.4 cases of myocarditis per one million after the second dose of Pfizer/BioNtech’s Comirnaty messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID biologic and 56.3 cases of myocarditis per million after Moderna/NIAID’s Spikevax mRNA COVID biologic. The CDC also reports that, as of Mar. 2, 2023, there have been 1,059 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis in young people under 18 years old made to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS).8 Despite the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis, the CDC still recommends the shots to everyone over the age of six months old.9
The actual number of heart-related adverse reactions to the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine vaccine may be much higher. VAERS, which was established by Congress as part of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) of 1986, has been found to significantly underrepresent the true number of vaccine injuries. A 2011 Harvard Pilgrim Health Care report showed that fewer than one percent of all adverse vaccine reactions are reported.10 Consequently, the true number of young adults suffering from heart inflammation and heart attacks after the COVID shots may also be vastly underrepresented in VAERS and by federal health officials at the FDA and CDC., who are responsible for the operation of VAERS.
To search the VAERS database, go to MedAlerts.org, a user-friendly search engine sponsored by the charitable National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC) that makes the details of adverse event reports made to VAERS easily accessible.
Previous Studies Reveal Risk of Myocarditis in Young Males Post COVID-19 Shots
Several studies have demonstrated a link between the COVID shots and heart inflammation. A March 2022 review of 14 studies showed that myocarditis occurred in 25-82 per million males 18 through 39 years old after the second Comirnaty (Pfizer) shot. Researchers speculate that the rates of myocarditis are higher after the second Spikevax (Moderna) shot as it has a larger amount of the spike protein than Comirnaty. More than 90 percent of myocarditis occurring after the COVID shots were reported in men between 20 and 29 years old.11
A 2021 Hong Kong population cohort study looking at the occurrence of myocarditis after COVID vaccination in adolescents showed that in an almost three-month period in 2021, 33 Chinese adolescents suffered from myocarditis/pericarditis post vaccination. Twenty-nine (87.8 percent) were male and four (12.12 percent) were female, with a median age of 15.25 years. Twenty-seven adolescents (81.8 percent) were diagnosed with myocarditis or pericarditis after getting the COVID second shot in the series, while six (18.1 percent) suffered heart inflammation after the first shot.
The rate of myocarditis/pericarditis was 18.5 percent per 100,000 vaccinated individuals. The authors concluded that there is a significant risk of developing myocarditis/pericarditis after receiving a COVID shot.12
A May 2022 Israeli study showed that there was a 25 percent increase in cardiovascular related emergency calls made by young adults between 16 to 39 years old from 2019 to 2021 after the roll out of the COVID shots. Researchers did not find a comparable increase in cardiovascular-related emergency calls in young adults due to SARS-CoV-2 infection alone. Contrary to other studies, this study found an increase in cardiac events for females as well as males, after COVID shots in this age group.13’
“Because of your history of possible Vaccine induced Myocarditis, Hyperlipidemia, Ganglion Cyst removal Left Hand, and Knee pain, operation of aircraft is prohibited at any time new symptoms…
No Fooling: The End of “Private Banking” Starts Today with Bank Enrollments in the New FedNow Program
March 31, 2023 5:52 pm
The first week of April, 2023 marks the beginning of the enrollment and certification process for financial institutions to start participating in the Federal Reserve’s new FedNow “Instant Payments” services, which is scheduled to launch in July, 2023. While many in the alternative media (myself included) have linked the FedNow program to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), technically speaking, FedNow is NOT part of the development of CBDCs. Michelle Bateman, Director of Product Management, Payments at Finastra, is a member of FedNow’s pilot program, and she has stated that the project to develop CBDCs is completely separate from the FedNow Instant Payment service. The main difference is that once CBDCs are rolled out, consumers will have accounts with a Federal Reserve Bank, while the FedNow program does not. The FedNow program will be offering “Master Accounts” at the Federal Reserve for financial institutions only. However, as I have previously stated, rolling out CBDCs is a mammoth project, and cannot be done overnight. It would be foolish to not believe that the FedNow program is not a stepping stone towards CBCDs. As you can see from the flow chart at the top of this article, with the implementation of the FedNow Instant transfer program, all the data involving a financial transaction between two “End-Users” will flow through the Federal Reserve banks. So while they are advertising the FedNow program as a new system that will make payments and wire transfers much quicker and much more convenient, it is also a mass data collection system for the Fed to begin storing private bank information. Will this include all the personal details of account holders in private banks?
China And Brazil Strike Deal To Ditch The US Dollar
March 31, 2023 5:59 pm
According to the Brazilian government, China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the United States dollar as an intermediary entirely, AFP reported. The deal, Beijing’s latest salvo against the almighty greenback, will enable China, the top rival to US economic hegemony, and Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, to conduct their massive trade which amounts to $150 billion per year, and financial transactions directly, exchanging yuan for reais and vice versa instead of going through the US dollar. In doing so China extends its bilateral, USD-exempting currency arrangements beyond countries such as Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to now include the Latin American exporting powerhouse.
Oil Surges In Early Trading After OPEC+ Surprise ‘Unipolar World’-Challenging Production Cut
SUNDAY, APR 02, 2023 – 05:39 PM
Update (1800ET): As one would have expected, oil prices are surging at the futures open with WTI up over 7% near $82 – its highest since late Jan…
Brent hit $86…
Additionally, less than two weeks after slashing its 2024 Brent price target from $100 to $94, Goldman done a full 180, and late on Friday raised its 2024 Brent forecast back to $100, and 2023 oil price target to $95 (from $90, and from $95 previously).
Nine members of OPEC+ announced today a surprise “voluntary” collective output cut totaling 1,66mn b/d which will take effect from May till the end of 2023.
As we have argued, OPEC+ has very significant pricing power relative to the past, and today’s surprise cut is consistent with their new doctrine to act preemptively because they can without significant losses in market share.
As we already assumed that Russia cuts would extend into 2023H2, we are lowering our OPEC+ production end-2023 forecast by 1.1 mb/d. Incorporating this significantly lower OPEC+ supply, slightly lower demand, and the modest French SPR release, we have nudged up our Brent forecasts by $5/bbl to $95/bbl (vs. 90 previously) for December 2023, and to $100 (vs. 97) for December 2024.
Finally, earlier today we noted that heading into this OPEC+ cut weekend, WTI shorts had trimmed their total exposure by the most in 7 years. However, as the next chart shows, there are still a lot of shorts left to cover…
… while the longs are about to exit dormancy.
* * *
Update (1500ET): The FT reports that, according to people familiar with Saudi Arabia’s thinking, Riyadh was irritated last week that the Biden administration publicly ruled out new crude purchases to replenish the strategic stockpile that had been drained last year as the White House battled to tame inflation.
‘Fistbump’ anyone?
As an aside, we joked just a few days ago that contrary to its earlier reps and warranties that the US would start refilling the SPR if oil dropped below $72, that this won’t be happening any time soon if ever…
Energy secretary Jennifer Granholm’s statement that it could take “years” to refill the reserve sent oil prices briefly lower. The White House had previously offered reassurance to Saudi Arabia that it would step in to make purchases for its strategic reserve if prices fell.
Of course, there is always ‘the smartest guy we know’ for Biden to rely on energy policy…
* * *
Update (1330ET): Well we didn’t think it would take long.
A spokesperson for the National Security Council at the White House has responded to OPEC+’s decision to cut crude production by 1 million barrels/day by saying that “output cuts aren’t advisable right now given market uncertainty,” adding that The White House “will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American consumers.”
Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said Saudi Arabia was staking out an economic strategy independent of the US, after a deterioration in relations between Riyadh and Washington during the Biden administration.
“It’s a Saudi-first policy. They’re making new friends, as we saw with China,” Croft said, referring to a recent Beijing-brokered diplomatic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The Kingdom was sending a message to the US that “it’s no longer a unipolar world”.
* * *
We asked this question last month: Who cuts first: OPEC+ or Fed?
… and more than two weeks later, we finally have an answer:
In the latest in a long series of slaps on Biden’s face, on Sunday OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an oil production reduction of over 1 million barrels per day, limiting output from May. Saudi Arabia spearheaded the cartel’s efforts by committing to a 500,000-barrel reduction of its own production.
According to the Saudi Press Agency, a Ministry of Energy official stated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will “implement a voluntary cut of 500 thousand barrels per day from May till the end of 2023.”
The cut will be in coordination with other OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries in the declaration of cooperation, the state-run media outlet continued.
“This voluntary cut is in addition to the reduction in production agreed at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on October 5, 2022,” the paper pointed out.
Other members, such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Algeria, also joined in the reduction efforts.
Previously, Russia had pledged to cut its crude-only output by 500,000 barrels per day in March in response to Western sanctions, including price caps on its oil and petroleum production, and to keep those curbs in place through June, but has now extended its pledged cuts through the end of the year
Here are the reductions per country:
*SAUDI ARABIA TO CUT OIL OUTPUT BY 500,000 BARRELS/DAY FROM MAY
*KUWAIT TO VOLUNTARY CUT OIL PRODUCTION BY 128,000 BARRELS/DAY
*UAE TO REDUCE OIL PRODUCTION BY 144,000 BARRELS/DAY FROM MAY
*KAZAKHSTAN TO CONTRIBUTE 78K B/D TO OPEC+ OUTPUT CUT: MINISTRY
*IRAQ TO CUT 211,000 B/D OF OIL OUTPUT FROM MAY: MINISTRY
*ALGERIA TO CUT 48K B/D OF OIL OUTPUT FROM MAY TO END 2023: APS
*OMAN TO CONTRIBUTE 40K B/D TO OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUT: DELEGATE
Russia commented on the announcement of production cuts:
“Today the global oil market is going through a period of high volatility and unpredictability due to the ongoing banking crisis in the US and Europe, global economic uncertainty, and unpredictable and short-sighted energy policy decisions.
Saudis said:
“Ministry of Energy official emphasized that this is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market,” SPA reports
Brent futures are expected to rise this evening in response to today’s news. Prices have been range bound between $86-$73 a barrel for much of 2023.
“Opec+ have made a pre-emptive cut to get ahead of any possible demand weakness from the banking crisis that has emerged,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects.
And cue the “disappointment” press release from The White House.
END
Why OPEC’s “Best Offense Is Defense”, And The Biggest Surprise About The Output Cut Announcement
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 10:54 PM
With markets still abuzz over Sunday’s OPEC+ decision to cut oil output by over 1.6 million bpd, which was strategic (the political implications of Saudi Arabia bitchslapping the Biden admin just days after it effectively joined the China-Russia-India axes are unmissable even by inbred Deep State types) as well as tactical (i.e., brutalize the oil shorts, a task made easier since energy is now the second most shorted sector after banks, while CTAs are max bearish and will be forced to cover and chase oil higher from here), below we excerpt from two different perspectives on the OPEC decision, the first one from TS Lombard (it is their view that the output cut “this will deter short sellers and help oil prices settle higher – much like what December’s surprise BoJ tweak to Yield Curve Control did for the yen” but in the long run “sticky oil prices are more likely to weigh on growth than arrest the broad disinflation process already under way”), as well as a second one from JPMorgan’s chief commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva who lays out what she thinks is the “most surprising part of the announcement.”
So without further ado, here is the first take courtesy of TS Lombard’s Konstantinos Venetis who explains why OPEC’s best offense is defense.
Oil prices have jumped following the decision by a Saudi-led group of OPEC members to cut output by around one million bpd starting next month. This will add to the two million bpd reduction agreed by OPEC+ back in October, taking the total to around 3% of global supply.
The cartel is trying to put a floor under crude prices against the backdrop of rising inventories and downside risks to demand as a US recession looms. This move is also meant to send a message to speculators: the bearish skew in futures positioning had become particularly pronounced recently, which goes some way to explaining today’s strong knee-jerk price response. There is also a political angle to the timing of this announcement, coming shortly after US officials effectively ruled out new crude purchases to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2023, underscoring the souring of US-Saudi relations.
Near term, this will deter short sellers and help oil prices settle higher – much like what December’s surprise BoJ tweak to Yield Curve Control did for the yen. In our experience, however, as a rule the recipe for sustainable oil market turnarounds is positive demand surprises, not pre-emptive supply reductions. Just like the production cuts announced in autumn 2022, this essentially amounts to a defensive move in the hope that the world economy skirts a severe economic downturn in 2023.
Given our expectations for a US recession and limited global spillovers from China’s reopening, our sense is that at this juncture sticky oil prices are more likely to weigh on growth than arrest the broad disinflation process already under way. For bonds, this means that spikes in yields on the back of renewed inflation concerns are likely to be short-lived. For equities, firmer oil prices will (if anything) weigh on already falling earnings expectations.
For commodities overall, the glass still looks half empty: we continue to expect rangebound trading in 2023 Q2, albeit with metals’ outperformance over energy starting to erode as the Brent-to-copper ratio mean-reverts higher.
And here is an excerpt from JPM’s Natasha Kaneva laying out what is “the most surprising part of the announcement”:
A day before the OPEC+’s advisory (no policy-making) Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was set to meet on April 3, Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance announced a 1.1 mbd oil production cut. Saudi Arabia pledged a “voluntary” 500 kbd supply reduction, in coordination with Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman (Table 1). The cuts will begin in May and last until the end of 2023. Fellow member Russia said the 500 kbd production cut it was implementing from March to June would extend until the end of 2023. Similar to OPEC’s 2 mbd cut last October, we view the current reduction in supply as a preemptive measure, assuring that surpluses that started accumulating in the global oil market since mid-2022 don’t extend into the second half of 2023 as the global economy slows following almost 400 bps of cumulative hikes since 2022.
The most surprising part of the announcement is that it was not made sooner. Since last November our global oil supply-demand balance suggested a strong policy action was needed to keep global oil surpluses in check. For example, the first iteration of the supply-demand balances behind our oil view for 2023 last November resulted in an average 1Q23 Brent price of $78/bbl (WTI at $72/bbl). We believed that the low price level would trigger two policy responses.
First, the US administration would step into the market to purchase 60 million barrels of oil to partially replenish SPR inventories.
Second, we believed that to keep the market balanced in 2023, OPEC+ alliance would need to cut its October quota by another 0.8 – 1.0 mbd, effectively slashing production by 0.4 mbd. We estimated that absent policy shift, Brent oil price would be confined to the $70-80/bbl near-term band, with a risk of significantly lower prices were the recent events in the US financial markets to cascade through the regional banking sector.
The combined impact of Sunday’s announcement is ~100 kbd (on annualized basis) less crude flowing into the market than we previously expected. Consequently, we leave our long-standing price forecast unchanged. We missed our 1Q23 price forecast by $3/bbl but still see Brent oil prices averaging $89 in 2Q23, rising to $94 in 4Q23 and exiting the year at $96.
Cuts are taking place two months later than our initial assumption.The timing of the policy response is paramount, and we previously assumed both the US administration and OPEC would act in the first quarter. Acting later diminishes the impact on overall balances and hence it takes longer for the price impact to take hold.
With the Biden administration publicly ruling out new crude purchases any time soon, OPEC+ alliance needs to do the heavy lifting to balance the market. On annualized basis, our initial assumption of 164 kbd of SPR purchases this year now stands at zero.
OPEC’s 1.1 mbd cut to production quotas translates to about 0. 8 mbd decline in real production, by our estimates, assuming OPEC+ sticks with current reference levels for the cuts (see our balances in the back of the note). Annualized, this equates to about 533 kbd of supply reduction, which compares to the 333 kbd cut embedded into our price forecast from last November.
Russia cuts are real but from a higher base than original guidance, offset by longer duration. Russia is moving ahead with its announced 500 kbd cut but from a much elevated crude output level of 10.2 mbd in February (combined Russian crude and condensate production in February was 11 mbd). This means Russia is now aiming to produce 9.7 mbd in March through December, a much shallower reduction in output than Russia previously indicated, but largely in line with our assumption of 9.6 mbd average. If realized, Russia will overcompensate by extending the cuts by six months from the original June end-date through December. The impact on our balance is about 70 kbd less production from Russia this year, annualized.
More in the full reports from JPM and TS Lombard available to pro subs.8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
INDIA
very important
from Robert H to us;
this is big! India uses rupees instead of dollars for international trade with 18 countries agreeing to trade in rupees.
End of the Dollar: India Uses Rupees Rather Than US Dollars for International Trade – 18 Countries Agree to Trade in INR | The Gateway Pundit
Inbox
Robert Hryniak
7:26 PM (3 hours ago)
to
The reality is this awaits with a vengeance. The day the fools ended Russian use of Swift to settle trade in USD was the beginning of a more rapid departure from using all Western currencies in Trade settlement.
Every larger trading nation is now abandoning USD Settlements for trade where ever they can. It is only a matter of time before the USD losses its’ predominance as the Reserve Currency of the world regulated to being a regional currency of settlement with various trade partners. What was many decades of work and control since Bretton Woods was toasted out the window with no understanding of its’ impact. People have a difficult time to fully comprehend what this 1.6 million barrel of oil will bring to the markets and economies. It is as much as weapon to change directions and the status quo as a kinetic weapon. While Neocons blindly pursue war, defeat and rejection looms; and with each day the cast of followers loses stage presence and countries choose to either ignore trade in USD or ignore sanctions. Countries like Japan have no choice but to buy Russian oil and the US has no choice but to let them or face a collapse of Japan and what that will mean to the West.
The reality is that the world runs on energy and what is certain is Neocons have already lost in the long run and that the West is ensured the cost of their folly in higher energy costs and a lower standard of living as a result. Have no illusions, all these countries running away from USD trade settlement are not coming back anytime soon . And they represent an opportunity for other hegemony actors to fill the void of a true global settlement medium with an alternative to the Federal Reserve Dollar. And should a war break out with China over Taiwan the likelihood of China having a shot at the Yuan being the dominant currency grows proportionally.
The world centric to America we have seen since WWII is no more and will never rise to the prominence it enjoyed. And the world can thank the Neocons for what comes.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0885 UP .0052
USA/ YEN 132.36 DOWN 0.352 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2392 UP 0.0067
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3453 DOWN.0056 (CDN DOLLAR UP 56 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 24.70 PTS OR 0.72%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 9.07 PTS OR 0.04%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP.0.58 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 9.07 PTS OR 0.04 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.70 PTS OR 0.72%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.58%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 146.67 PTS OR 1,52%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1985.00
silver:$23.98
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.90 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN)..(6.8789
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8636
TURKISH LIRA: 19.20 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.377…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.415% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.652 DOWN 4 in basis pt
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9402 % DOWN 7 in basis points.
closing USA dollar index, 101.90 DOWN 38 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 11.55 PTS OR 0.61%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 64.49 POINTS OR 0.41%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16.58 PTS OR 0.23 %
Spain IBEX DOWN 80.10 POINTS OR 0.87 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 58.93 PTS OR 0.25%
WTI Oil price 80.04 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.03. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 78.71 / ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 10/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2135 DOWN 9
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.4355 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0903 UP 0.0070 OR 70 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2416 UP 0092 or 92 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.453% UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132,43 DOWN 0,278 //YEN UP 28 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3433 DOWN .0075 CDN dollar, UP 75 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.61
Brent OIL: 85.03
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 3.415%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 3.633%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 3.9717%
USA dollar index: 101.74 DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.20
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.74 DOWN 1 AND 15/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 327.00 PTS OR 0.98%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 33.00 PTS OR 0.25%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.54 DOWN .16 PTS (0.86)%
GLD: $184.54 UP 1.32 OR 0.72%
SLV/ $22.06 DOWN 0.06 OR 0.27%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Ugly Data & Oil Shock: Stagflation Threat Sparks Bond & Gold Gains; Banks & The Buck Dumped
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 11:00 PM
OPEC+ pissed in Powell’s victory-lap-over-inflation punchbowl overnight, jolting stocks lower. Ugly Manufacturing ISM data early on sparked the ubiquitous ‘bbrrrrrr’ trade with gold and stocks bid, dollar and bond yields tumbling. The St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard raised the specter of OPEC+’s production cut making The Fed’s job harder (i.e. forcing them to be more hawkish than they would like to be) which then reversed some of the equity gains (especially in big-tech and small caps – finance-heavy). Finally, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q1 2023 real GDP growth is 1.7% on April 3, down from 2.5% on March 31.
Oil prices shot 6-7% higher on the OPEC+ news, with WTI back above $80, its highest since Jan 27th (breaking above its 50- and 100-DMA)…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dow dramatically outperformed Nasdaq (by the most since Oct 27th at its peak before the late melt-up), with mega-cap tech red and Small Caps ramped into the green late on. S&P stumbled around unch for most of the day before the late-day buying panic…
Early in the day, 0DTE traders faded the opening ramp, took some profits then led the charge higher with huge positive delta flow…
Energy stocks massively outperformed on the day. Financials were flat-ish, while Discretionary was worst…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Banks were hit again, back below the 3/24 close (before the ‘all clear’ ramp)…
After 3 straight days of relative weakness, value stocks outperformed growth stocks to start Q2 (but we note a similar pump and dump pattern)…
Source: Bloomberg
Weaker growth (ISM) and stronger inflation (OPEC) = stagflation… and that’s not at all what Powell and his pals want to see, as May rate-hike odds rose to 65%…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, further out the curve you can see the impact of OPEC (hawkish) and ISM (dovish) on the market’s expectations for Fed actions…
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation expectations jumped to 5-week highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all lower on the day – after quite a rollercoaster higher (OPEC+ inflation) then plunge lower (ISM weakness) – with the short-end outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar saw a similar velocity – ramping higher to open last night (OPEC+ hawkish) then plunging from the moment Europe opened, and accelerating after ISM weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were higher on the day, helped by Musk changing Twitter’s icon to DogeCoin…
Source: Bloomberg
Front-month gold futures surged back above $2,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Oil’s surge has lifted Bloomberg’s broad Commodity Index above is 6-month downtrend line, and above its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities are up 6 of the last 7 days… not what Mr.Powell and Mr.Biden want to see.i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
a sure sign of trouble for the economy
(zerohedge)
Manhattan Office Vacancy Hits Record As Marquee LA Office Tower Sells At 50% Loss
… many were left with the opinion that the world’s top office market remains largely unscathed.
Unfortunately, that opinion was wrong: according to the latest report from brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle, which tracks about 470 million square feet (44 million square meters) of New York City offices, found a mere 4.6 million square feet of office space was leased in the first quarter. That means that Manhattan’s office-vacancy rate was at a record high as new developments add even more space to the struggling market. Specifically, 16.1% of space was empty as of the first quarter, with leasing is at its lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021. Other real estate companies found si similar results: Colliers recorded a 16.9% vacancy rate in the fourth quarter and a 17.3% rate in the first quarter of 2021.
“You’re having this anemic leasing activity, more space is being added in the form of newly constructed or newly renovated space, but also sublease space continues to pile up,” said Andrew Lim, director of research at JLL.
According to the report, while the market was already struggling with excess supply, it was flooded with more than 1.5 million square feet of office space in the first quarter with the completion of 660 Fifth Ave.’s redevelopment.
Not all of that space will stay empty as landlord Brookfield Properties has signed leases with finance firms including Macquarie Group. The building – formerly known as the iconic 666 Fifth Ave – and the former home of hedge fund giant Millennium Partners until its recent move to 399 Park, has gained traction after undergoing $400 million in renovations that include a new lobby, elevators and facade.
There was some good news on the office front: one of the biggest leases to come to fruition in the first quarter was Citadel’s master lease of 350 Park Avenue. Ken Griffin’s firm is leasing 585,000 square feet from Vornado Realty Trust at the property for 10 years, where the initial annual rent will be $36 million.
Still, the increase in available space ramps up the pressure on landlords that own older buildings across the city. With the rise in remote work, tenants are more inclined to move to newer developments or towers that have been recently renovated, especially with the recent deluge of office space availability courtesy of the Hudson Yards project.
“We have to reinvent our office space,” New York Mayor Eric Adams said in an interview with Bloomberg Thursday, adding that empty spaces should be converted to housing. “We have a housing crisis. We already have structures that are built.”
The silver lining is that despite the record number of vacant offices, average rents remained flat at $76.96 a square foot, buoyed by growing rates at top-quality buildings, especially newly built ones. That helped balance out falling rents at older spaces and offices up for sublease.
It’s not just New York: other key office markets are suffering similar malaise.
According to Commercial Observer, KBS sold the Union Bank Plaza tower in Downtown Los Angeles for a big discount to the Schreiber-run Waterbridge Capital after several rounds of descending bids (Joel Schreiber made a name as the first investor in WeWork and made several attempts to sell the former Broadway Trade Center downtown before filing for bankruptcy and succumbing to a foreclosure sale.)
The 40-story, 701,888-square-foot office building sold for between $105 million and $110 million, according to sources familiar with the deal. KBS REIT acquired the same building from Hines for $208 million in 2010, records show, and also completed a $20 million renovation. In total, the loss on the sale was north of 50%.
Throughout the L.A. region, office activity has cooled significantly since the pandemic, especially in the central business district, and investor and lender appetite for office assets has collapse with the rise of hybrid work and rising interest rates. As reported previously, Brookfield, the largest office landlord in L.A., defaulted on $754 million in loans tied to two Downtown L.A. office towers, and other skyscrapers, including the PacMutual Building and the 62-story Aon Center, are hitting the market at major discounts.
To make matters worse and put more pressure on a potential sale, L.A.’s Measure ULA goes into effect April 1, which will increase transfer taxes by 5.5 percent on transactions over $10 million.
“Executing on large-scale office assets in today’s environment requires an ability to address the entire capital stack and think outside the box. Even with a high-quality asset, these are not easy deals to close,” Mark Schuessler, an executive vice president with Colliers, said in a statement. USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Gag Order? Trump Legal Team Expects Manhattan Judge To Silence Former President
MONDAY, APR 03, 2023 – 07:08 PM
Update (1208ET): Donald Trump’s legal team thinks a New York judge may slap a gag order on the former president, the Daily Mail reports.
“The Trump legal team now thinks that the Manhattan judge will take the unprecedented step of silencing the presidential frontrunner with an unconstitutional gag order tomorrow,” one source told the Mail. “The Trump legal team is considering adding a First Amendment lawyer to the effort to combat this and will fight it all the way.'”
If Trump breaks an imposed gag order, he risks a $1,000 fine and as much as 30 days in prison under New York law.
If a gag order is imposed, a previously announced Tuesday evening speech from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home may now be in doubt.
* * *
As The Epoch Times’ Naveen Anthrapully detailed earlier, former president Donald Trump has confirmed that he intends to appear before a New York court for his arraignment on charges brought against him by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
“ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!” Trump said in an all-caps April 3 Truth Social post.
“I will be leaving Mar-a-Lago on Monday at 12 noon, heading to Trump Tower in New York. On Tuesday morning I will be going to, believe it or not, the Courthouse. America was not supposed to be this way!” Trump said in another post.
The court hearing for the arraignment will take place at 2:15 p.m. ET when Trump will appear before acting Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan. This will be the first time in history that a former U.S. president faces criminal charges.
In an interview with CNN on Sunday, Trump’s lawyer Joe Tacopina said that he is yet to see the indictment as it is still sealed.
“We will take the indictment. We will dissect it. The team will look at every, every potential issue that we will be able to challenge and we will challenge, and of course, I very much anticipate a motion to dismiss coming because there’s no law that fits this,” Tacopina said.
A spokesperson for the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office said in a statement on March 31: “This evening we contacted Mr. Trump’s attorney to coordinate his surrender to the Manhattan D.A.’s Office for arraignment on a Supreme Court indictment, which remains under seal. Guidance will be provided when the arraignment date is selected.”
Trump blasted Bragg for subjecting him to criminal charges. “The Corrupt D.A. has no case. What he does have is a venue where it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to get a Fair Trial (it must be changed!), and a Trump-Hating Judge, hand selected by the Soros-backed D.A. (he must be changed!). Also has the DOJ working in the D.A.’s Office – Unprecedented!” he said in an April 3 Truth Social post.
Trump was indicted by a grand jury for his involvement in paying $130,000 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. The case is believed to rely mostly on testimony from Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen.
During an arraignment, formal charges against the accused are read by a judge for the first time. Trump will be asked how he wishes to plead and the judge will decide whether bail is necessary for him to be released.
GOP members have also insisted that the Manhattan District Attorney’s case against Trump is politically motivated. In a letter (pdf) to Republican lawmakers on Friday, Leslie Dubeck, Bragg’s general counsel, called such allegations of political persecution “baseless and inflammatory.”
“Like any other defendant, Mr. Trump is entitled to challenge these charges in court and avail himself of all processes and protections that New York State’s robust criminal procedure affords. What neither Mr. Trump nor Congress may do is interfere with the ordinary course of proceedings in New York State.”
Political Play
Richmond-based veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth believes the Manhattan district attorney’s case against Trump will boost the former president’s appeal for the Republican primaries in the race for 2024 president.
“But this [indictment] is not likely to be the only one. And the question is, as these pile up later this spring and summer, will it open up a lane for someone other than these two?” he said in an interview with The Epoch Times, referring to Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“We’re in uncharted territory, and I think we’ll see likely twists and turns beyond the immediate impact.”
On April 1, Trump posted the results of a poll on Truth Social which saw 83 percent of respondents willing to vote for Trump in the Republican primary. Second-placed candidate DeSantis only received 13 percent support.
“I have never had so much support and love as I do now against the Radical Left Insurrectionists, Extortionists, Crooked Politicians, and Thugs that are destroying our Country. Thank you, we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!” Trump said in an April 3 post.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report April 3 2023 Issue 6981
Independent View of the News
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” –Upton Sinclair
Eurozone March CPI fell to 6.9% y/y from 8.5%; 7.1% was expected. Core CPI was the expected 5.7%, +0.1 from Feb. However, Services inflation increased 20bps to a new high of 5.0% y/y. Food, alcohol & tobacco jumped 15.4% y/y; Non-energy industrial goods rose 6.6% y/y. Energy fell 0.9%.
UM Sentiment declined to 62 from 63.4; 63.3 was expected. Current Conditions fell to 63.3 from the prior and expected 66.4. Expectations declined to 59.2 from 61.5; 61.4 was expected. 1-year inflation fell to 3.6% from the expected and prior 3.8%.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Final March 2023 Report https://t.co/aW1EaDS0OKMarFebMarM-MY-Y 202320232022ChangeChangeIndex of Consumer Sentiment62.067.059.4-7.5%+4.4%Current Economic Conditions66.370.767.2-6.2%-1.3%Index of Consumer Expectations59.264.754.3-8.5%+9.0% The usual suspects, including The Big Guy, trumpeted the 0.1 lower than expected 0.3% increase in Core PCE. However, wages were 0.1 stronger than the expected 0.2%.
The Big Guy’s Statement on PCE (When was the last time a president commented on PCE?) In February we saw the lowest food inflation in nearly two years… https://t.co/GhMVkjOSdT
Ex-Dallas Fed researcher @DiMartinoBooth: Ghosts of CPI Past to drop from CPI construct @t1alpha “next few months have relatively tough comparisons…dropping 0.31% month for March Core CPI v recent trend of 0.4%. April begins to drop post-Russian invasion datapoints to see if rebound tied to seasonality or fundamentals.” https://t.co/QwzbIr3y0c
ESMs traded sideways, from flat to modestly positive, from Asia’s open until they soared after the NYSE open. The rally persisted until 12:22 ET. ESMs and stocks traded sideways until the late manipulation to game Q1 performance commenced at 15:00 ET. ESMs, stocks, and bonds, closed at their highs.
The Fed Reverse Repo Facility jumped to a YTD high of $2.375T – a lot of extra money in the system!
Numerous pundits are displaying charts of the y/y collapse in M2 and proclaiming it is indicator of coming calamity for stocks and the economy. M1= Currency in circulation + demand deposits + checkable deposits + other liquid deposits; M2 = M1+ Saving Deposits + Small Denomination Time Deposits + Retail Money Funds. There are no six-figure+ CDs or large Time Deposits in M2.
To paraphrase Paul Harvey, “And now, the rest of the story!” (Regarding M2)
M2 – High: $21.7032T; Now: $21.062T, a horrifying decline of 3.09% after an 40% surge in 3 years!
For decades, numerous monetarists incessantly warned that M2 was forecasting severe to hyperinflation. If M2 failed to forecast severe to hyperinflation, why should it forecast nuclear winter deflation now?
PS – The relationship between M2 and the economy broke down in the ‘80s and early ‘90s.
M3 = M1 + M2 + 6-figure deposits + institutional money market funds + large liquid assets. The Fed quit publishing M3 years ago to conceal the mushrooming of money in the system.
@CNBCClosingBell: “It is true that banks the size of SVB were exempted from the stress test, however, the stress test did not test for rising interest rates. What was the Fed thinking?” says @steveliesman (How stupid is it for all those Ivy League academics that permeated the Fed for NOT including rising interest rates in a stress tests? Ivy League tuition is now at or near $90k/year!) https://t.co/We4BnnzDzT
@acrossthespread: BOJ released its new quarterly JGB buying schedule starting April – when BOJ Gov Kuroda leaves & incoming Gov Ueda starts. BOTH increased AND decreased amount of buying for each maturity from prev. In other words- BOJ purposely ↑’d level of “taper/not” ambiguity/flexibility. https://t.co/zr1Dl374IF
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds rallied sharply on the manipulation to game Q1 performance. Fangs, techs, and related trading sardines led the rally, of course.
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline and oil rallied sharply BKX, the KBW Bank Stock Index, has been flat since the opening on Wednesday
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Once again, Fed officials are hawkish on inflation, and once again, Mr. Market mocks the Fed
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4092.08 Previous session High/Low: 4110.75; 4056.18
Info Tech +21.49% for Q1; Comm Services +20.18%; Consumer Discretionary +15.76% Nasdaq +16.8%, best quarter since 2020
@CameronDawson: Tech’s PE has now jumped so much that it now trades at a 38% premium to the S&P. This is even higher than at the pandemic bubble peak in late 2021! Wild to think that pre-Powell pivot in 2019, tech traded at just a 4% premium to the market. https://twitter.com/CameronDawson/status/1642230879505334272
@unusual_whales: According to reports from the trustees of the programs, the main trust fund reserves of the U.S. Social Security system will be depleted in 2033, which is a year earlier than the previous estimate… the combined funds of Social Security will only be capable of covering 80% of scheduled benefits after 2034, according to the trustees report… Full story: https://t.co/FzfftMJY0e
Americans are fed up with bad customer service, increasingly seek ‘revenge’ over it https://fxn.ws/3U3zaYg
CPI hedonic adjustments calibrate benefits from better service. As far as we know, bad service is ignored.
Wall Street has purchased hundreds of thousands of single-family homes since the Great Recession. Here’s what that means for rental prices: (Legislation or revolution next?)Corporations backed by private equity groups such as Blackstone and Pretium Partners bought tens of thousands of homes across the U.S. Sun Belt.Prices for detached homes have increased faster in key Sun Belt states than the national average.Institutional investors do not yet control a large market share in housing, but analysts writing at MetLife Investment Management suggest they could by 2030… https://t.co/6umfiYOyHN Russia Policy Calls West ‘Existential’ Threat: Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday that a new foreign policy strategy adopted by President Vladimir Putin identifies the West as posing an “existential” threat to Moscow…“The United States of America is directly named as the main instigator and driver of anti-Russian sentiment,” he added… https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-policy-says-west-is-existential-threat-lavrov-6816b12c
Russia adopts new global strategy to counter West Putin designates US as anti-Moscow and issues foreign policy to defend Russian-world state civilization The US is “the source of fundamental risks to the security of the Russian Federation” and most European states are pursuing an “aggressive policy” aimed at undermining Russia’s sovereignty, according to the 42-page document… “The Russian Federation intends to give priority to the elimination of vestiges of the dominance of the United States and other unfriendly countries in world politics,” the strategy document states… “The United States of America is directly named as the main instigator and driver of anti-Russian sentiment,” he said… https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2023/03/31/russia-adopts-new-global-strategy-to-counter-west/
UAE, other OPEC countries to voluntarily cut oil output from May until year-end The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced oil production cuts starting May, on Sunday… OPEC+ is scheduled to hold the Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), on Monday, via videoconferencing…Kuwait’s energy ministry said the country will cut production by 128,000 barrels a day until the end of the year, while Iraq will cut its oil production by 211,000 barrels per day. Oman said it will cut oil output by 40,000 barrels a day… (~1.16m B/D in surprise oil production cuts!) https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uae-other-opec-countries-to-voluntarily-cut-oil-output-from-may-until-year-end-1.94883417
Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap: WSJ
Today – Traders will play for the usual Monday rally and the start of the month/quarter rally. The usual suspects expect institutional buying at or near the close. Will surging energy costs thwart equity bulls?
Expected economic data: March S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.7; March ISM Mfg. 47.5 Feb Construction Spending 0.0% m/m; March Wards Vehicle Sales 14.85m
On Sunday, May WTI Oil hit 81.89, +6.02 (+7.96%); Gasoline hit +14.11 cents and is +19.5% from its low on March 16, 2023. ESMs is -14.00 at 20:10 ET on the OPEC+ surprise oil production cuts.
“Joe Biden Too Old to Travel” – White House Admits They Are Limiting Old Joe’s Foreign Travel @GraphicW5: Joe Biden will decline an invitation to attend the coronation of King Charles III of Great Britain in London in May. According to The Daily Telegraph, First Lady Jill Biden may come to the ceremony instead of the US President. According to the publication, trips abroad are very exhausting for the 80-year-old American president, so the Washington administration is trying to reduce their number to a minimum, leaving only the most necessary foreign visits on the schedule. https://t.co/DPRvW5vhzD
Former US Attorney General Bill Barr says Trump indictment is… “the archetypal abuse of the prosecutorial function to engage in a political hit job, and it’s a disgrace…”https://t.co/yU6kbsLYe9
Barr warns Trump’s legal team what not to do during possible trial “Generally, I think it’s a bad idea to go on the stand, and I think it’s a particularly bad idea to put Trump because he lacks all self-control and it’d be very difficult to prepare him and keep him testifying in a prudent fashion,” Barr told “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream…. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/barr-warns-trumps-legal-team-what-not-to-do-during-possible-trial
@backtolife_2023: Gov. DeSantis: “I am not going to be like some of these Republicans, they just sit around, they’re all defensive, they’re like potted plants, they don’t want to offend the mediaor the Democrats. We’re going on the offense…” https://twitter.com/backtolife_2023/status/1642267749136187393?s=02
@FreeBeacon: DeSantis responds to Trump’s indictment: “Purely for political purposes and indicts a former president on misdemeanor offenses that they are straining to turn into felonies…The law has been weaponized for political purposes … These Soros-backed DAs, they are a menace to society. They are a menace to the rule of law.” https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1642263409168195590?s=02
@MichaelPSenger: DeSantis: “They were wrong on lockdowns, they were wrong on masking…they were wrong on denying the existence of natural immunity…so my question is, where is the accountability for these people for all the damage that they did to our country?” https://twitter.com/Eigenwijsheid_/status/1642588720262963202?s=02
@emeriticus: DeSantis on crime: “We reject soft-on-crime policies like eliminating cash bail and jailbreak legislation, which lets people out of prison early without even completing their full sentences.” The latter sure sounds a lot like the First Step Act (Trump/Ivanka/Kardashian Act). https://t.co/3LNKIIDuXZ
@charliekirk11:NYC jury finds Douglass Mackey GUILTY in first-ever meme trial for making memes that made fun of Hillary Clinton in 2016. If you want justice, avoid New York like the plague.
@EDNYnews: Social Media Influencer Douglass Mackey Convicted of Election Interference in 2016 Presidential Race – Mackey conspired with other influential Twitter users and with members of private online groups to use social media platforms, including Twitter, to disseminate fraudulent messages that encouraged supporters of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to “vote” via text message or social media which, in reality, was legally invalid… https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/social-media-influencer-douglass-mackey-convicted-election-interference-2016
@greg_price11: Doug Mackey was just found guilty of a federal crime he was charged with by the DOJ for tweeting the meme on the left during the 2016 election. (Similar meme on DJT voters, no charge!) https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1641907970547097603
@amuse: Douglass Mackey was convicted for posting a joke meme about Hillary Clinton. He is facing ten years in prison. Kristina Wong @mskristinawong posted the same joke meme about Donald Trump. She is running for office and is facing no time in prison. Why the different treatment? https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1641923569687965698
@charliekirk11: So, our “justice” system is hell bent on imprisoning former presidents and meme makers while BLM fraudsters, Zuckerbucks election meddlers, Epstein Island pedos, and corrupt influence-peddling crackheads get off scot-free. What country is this?
@thebradfordfile: The FBI worked directly with Twitter to rig an election, but one Trump supporter gets prosecuted for a meme.
Manhattan Assistant DA Nukes Twitter Account After Anti-Trump Bias Exposed Less than 24 hours after the Gateway Pundit exposed Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Meg Reiss’ public hatred of Donald Trump on Twitter, Reiss – who’s been accused of masterminding the case against the former president, locked and then deleted her account… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/manhattan-assistant-da-nukes-twitter-account-after-anti-trump-bias-exposed
@julie_kelly2: FBI counterterrorism unit has arrested a Virginia grandma on four misdemeanors for entering the Capitol with her elderly mother for 15 minutes on January 6. Aren’t you glad this is how DOJ is using its resources?https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1641850582229999616
The contemptible and abjectly corrupt Nancy Pelosi assertion that Trump can now prove his innocence yields great insight into the twisted and unhinged mindset of Pelosi. By the Pelosi Legal Standard, the Biden family might soon have the opportunity to prove their innocence from myriad criminal charges.
James Comey Fires Off Tweet Celebrating After Manhattan Grand Jury Indicts Trump https://t.co/cJVtnV5nxE
@TuckerCarlson: The defining principle of the American legal system, the one that has kept us free, is equal justice. But the populist surge of 2016 changed everything… The populist surge of 2016 changed everything. Permanent Washington suddenly felt more threatened by American voters than by any foreign adversary… In their panic, our leaders decided to turn the American legal system as well as American intel agencies, and if necessary, the US military against their political opponents. In doing this, they abandoned the ancient principle of equality under the law and replaced it with a loyalty oath. Opponents of the regime became enemies of the state…https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1641960330354913280
Tucker: “Why do they hate Donald Trump so much? Trump challenged the reigning foreign policy orthodoxies as president. He infuriated the neocons who control the State Department and the Pentagon.”https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1641960638363697152
Ann Coulter: Last week, he posted a picture of himself — carefully selected for its bad-assedness — swinging a baseball bat next to a photo of Bragg. What justifies this tough-guy image? I agree 100% with the issues Trump ran on in 2016, but this is the guy who claimed to have a bone spur in his foot to avoid actual military service. The complete opposite of his image on “The Apprentice,” barking “You’re fired!” at hapless employees, the real Trump couldn’t fire anyone. He asked former campaign aide-turned-lobbyist Corey Lewandowski to fire his attorney general, Jeff Sessions… Sitting with Democrats and Republicans at the White House, Trump wimped out on the Second Amendment, announcing that he supported a whole laundry list of anti-gun proposals, including taking arms away without due process. He even mocked Republicans for being “afraid of the NRA” — unlike him, the tough guy willing to swing a baseball bat at a photo. The NRA, he said, has “power over you people, but they have less power with me.” A few days later, the NRA stopped by the Oval Office — and Trump retracted it all, tweeting out his unwavering support for the Second Amendment. He released prisoners because Kim Kardashian told him to, bombed Syria because his daughter told him to, and shut down the country because a scaredy-cat cable news host told him to… As soon as there was blowback on the ridiculous baseball bat meme, here was Trump, backpedaling as fast as his bone-spurred feet would let him. He told some cockamamie story about how he never even noticed the picture! (Because Trump isn’t at all obsessed with his own image.) I’m not allowed to offer a professional opinion without conducting an examination, but based on the symptoms, there’s a good chance that Trump is a liberal white woman. https://anncoulter.com/2023/03/29/transgender-nation/
CBS News Executives Barred the Word ‘Transgender’ From Coverage of Nashville Shooter https://t.co/7G7EUB7lsJ
Male powerlifter enters women’s event, breaks record Avi Silverberg, the head coach for Team Canada Powerlifting for more than 10 years, entered Saturday’s Heroes Classic tournament in Lethbridge, Alberta, after identifying as a female… ICONS said Silverberg “mocked the discriminatory [Canadian Powerlifting Union] policy” that allows competitors to register for events under their “gender identity and expression, rather than their sex or gender,” vowing “no consequences” for doing so… https://t.co/RQU6WhzXEy
Federal judges say they won’t hire clerks from ‘intolerant’ Stanford Law School The announcement came after Stanford’s associate dean for diversity, equity and inclusion led a protest of Judge S. Kyle Duncan at the school’s chapter of the Federalist Society, and accused him and his anti-gay rights legal record of causing “harm” to students. Some of the student protestors who ambushed Duncan’s speech reportedly called him “scum” and said they hoped his “daughters get raped.”… https://nypost.com/2023/04/02/james-ho-and-elizabeth-branch-say-they-will-not-hire-clerks-from-stanford/
The Babylon Bee: Toddler Breaks Usain Bolt’s 100M Dash Record after Parent Asks What’s in His Mouth
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Everything About to Blow Up as God Destroys Evil – Bo Polny
Biblical cycle timing expert, geopolitical and financial analyst Bo Polny says the U.S. dollar is going to take a big hit this year. The printed money used for evil is coming to an end, and evil will be crushed financially. Polny explains, “During Covid, all these mass churches were all shut down. They were using the name of God, but they weren’t preaching the word of God. So, we’re going to see the collapse of the church system. Organized religion is going to completely collapse because it is a control system. Everything we believe to be true is about to blow up. This will be God’s intervention, and no man can stop this. The events that are coming are going to be Biblical, which means God is going to get all the glory. The collapse of the dollar will be the collapse of the financial system, which will be very painful for a lot of people. There are going to be millionaires and billionaires that could potentially be in food lines. They are going to lose their wealth. Why? They planted evil seeds, and they worked for evil. They thought the shows that you were doing and I was doing, exposing all the truth, was nonsense. In a Babylonian system, they don’t want to hear the truth because the truth will destroy them. It’s the light. They try to hide everything, and it’s all about deception. . . . This is a battle between good and evil that has been going on for thousands of years. The United States was Babylon because we were founded under God. We were a covenant nation, and that makes us the ‘Golden Cup.’
The dollar system went crazy across the world and became a fiat money system, and the whole world became drunk with the money. There is the explanation of Babylon. It is a worldwide swamp.”
Polny says he is seeing a “key turn date” on April 6, which is Passover. Jesus Christ was Crucified on Passover more than 2,000 years ago. Polny says the next big Biblical date is May 1. Polny says, The day and hour that God is going to strike evil is a secret. Does He strike it on the 6th of April? I don’t know, but Passover starts on the evening of the 5th and goes into April 13.”
Polny says, “The U.S. dollar is a bondage instrument. If you have a mortgage, a student loan or a credit card, you are enslaved to a money system that is created out of thin air. Then they put an interest rate on it, and they doubly screw you. This whole money system is a smoke and mirrors game, and people actually think they are free. You can’t draw the line high enough to show how much money has been created out of thin air to enslave people. It’s in the quadrillions. All these people go to work everyday to pay back the modern-day pharaohs. It’s no different than what happened thousands of years ago with Pharoah. People are chasing money to pay back a system that you can’t pay back. You can’t pay it all back because it’s impossible. The evil present day pharaohs of this world are about to be destroyed. That will mean the collapse of the financial system that we know. Gold and silver will be doing a vertical moon shot. Why? Because the financial system just blew up. Everything is going to flip on its head when God intervenes. In Matthew 24, Jesus says, “Be not deceived, the end is not yet. . . . This is the beginning of birth pains.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 25-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny, founder of Gold2020Forecast.com for 4.1.23.
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
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SPOT GOLD
SPOT SILVER
Everything About to Blow Up as God Destroys Evil – Bo Polny
Biblical cycle timing expert, geopolitical and financial analyst Bo Polny says the U.S. dollar is going to take a big hit this year. The printed money used for evil is coming to an end, and evil will be crushed financially. Polny explains, “During Covid, all these mass churches were all shut down. They were using the name of God, but they weren’t preaching the word of God. So, we’re going to see the collapse of the church system. Organized religion is going to completely collapse because it is a control system. Everything we believe to be true is about to blow up. This will be God’s intervention, and no man can stop this. The events that are coming are going to be Biblical, which means God is going to get all the glory. The collapse of the dollar will be the collapse of the financial system, which will be very painful for a lot of people. There are going to be millionaires and billionaires that could potentially be in food lines. They are going to lose their wealth. Why? They planted evil seeds, and they worked for evil. They thought the shows that you were doing and I was doing, exposing all the truth, was nonsense. In a Babylonian system, they don’t want to hear the truth because the truth will destroy them. It’s the light. They try to hide everything, and it’s all about deception. . . . This is a battle between good and evil that has been going on for thousands of years. The United States was Babylon because we were founded under God. We were a covenant nation, and that makes us the ‘Golden Cup.’
The dollar system went crazy across the world and became a fiat money system, and the whole world became drunk with the money. There is the explanation of Babylon. It is a worldwide swamp.”
Polny says he is seeing a “key turn date” on April 6, which is Passover. Jesus Christ was Crucified on Passover more than 2,000 years ago. Polny says the next big Biblical date is May 1. Polny says, The day and hour that God is going to strike evil is a secret. Does He strike it on the 6th of April? I don’t know, but Passover starts on the evening of the 5th and goes into April 13.”
Polny says, “The U.S. dollar is a bondage instrument. If you have a mortgage, a student loan or a credit card, you are enslaved to a money system that is created out of thin air. Then they put an interest rate on it, and they doubly screw you. This whole money system is a smoke and mirrors game, and people actually think they are free. You can’t draw the line high enough to show how much money has been created out of thin air to enslave people. It’s in the quadrillions. All these people go to work everyday to pay back the modern-day pharaohs. It’s no different than what happened thousands of years ago with Pharoah. People are chasing money to pay back a system that you can’t pay back. You can’t pay it all back because it’s impossible. The evil present day pharaohs of this world are about to be destroyed. That will mean the collapse of the financial system that we know. Gold and silver will be doing a vertical moon shot. Why? Because the financial system just blew up. Everything is going to flip on its head when God intervenes. In Matthew 24, Jesus says, “Be not deceived, the end is not yet. . . . This is the beginning of birth pains.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 25-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny, founder of Gold2020Forecast.com for 4.1.23.
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