April 19/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $12.00, TO $1995.10

SILVER PRICE CLOSED:UP 11 CENTS AT $25.28

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE $1994.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.37

Bitcoin morning price:, $29,171 DOWN 1033 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,317 DOWN 887 dollars

Platinum price closing $1093.20 UP $8.15

Palladium price; $1611.60 DOWN $29.50

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2684.81 DOWN 1.01 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)

BRITISH GOLD: 1603.84 DOWN 10.41 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)

EURO GOLD: 1820.90 DOWN 6.67 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:

COMEX//NOTICES

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,007.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/18/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 04/20/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

104 C MIZUHO 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 46
365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 54
523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 20
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 9
880 H CITIGROUP 136
905 C ADM 3

TOTAL: 142 142

JPMorgan stopped 20/142 contracts

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 142 NOTICES FOR 14200 OZ or 0.4416 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,408 contracts for 2,340,800 oz (72.808 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 344 for 1,720,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 924,26 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 465,002 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 510 TO 158,371 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.18 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.18). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1210 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1000 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 5.0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 25.83 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 700 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 25.83 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/+ 1.825 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER STANDING FOR APRIL///THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 27.655 MILLION OZ/ //// V) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –369 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 17,475 contracts: OR 87,375 MILLION OZ . (1456 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 87.375 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT ABOVE LAST MONTH

APRIL 87.375 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 510 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.18 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 700 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 5.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK STANDING 25.83 MILLION OZ, THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL TOTALS 27.655 MILLION .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1210 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD 31 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 155,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 722 CONTRACTS TO 482,254 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 422 CONTRACTS

this is the 6th day in a row where contracts on the comex were added!!

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 722 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $12.15 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 500 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $12,15 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2981 OI CONTRACTS (9.303 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2691 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 481,832

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3413 CONTRACTS WITH 722 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2691 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3413 CONTRACTS OR 10.615 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2691 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (722 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3413 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 500 OZ//NEW STANDING 73.944 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 41,416 CONTRACTS OR 4,141,600 OZ OR 128.82 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3451 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 128.82 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 128.82/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 126.82 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 510 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,371 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022

EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 700 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 879 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1210 CONTRACTS.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 6.050 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.18 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.20 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 282.75 POINTS OR 1.37% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 52.07 PTS OR 0.18% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.07 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8876/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8963 /Oil DOWN TO 79.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83/53 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 722 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 482,254 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.15 ON TUESDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2691 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 2691 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2691 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3413 CONTRACTS IN THAT 722 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 722 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.15. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (73.944) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 73.944 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $12.15 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3413 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 10.615 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 500 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $12.15

WE HAD + ADDED 422 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3413 CONTRACTS OR 341,300 OZ OR 10.615 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 216,913 FAIR

final gold volumes/yesterday 170,249 POOR

//APRIL 19/ APRIL 2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	321.51 oz 10 kilobars Brinks .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	142 notice(s) 14200 OZ 0.4416 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	365 contracts 36,500 oz 1.135 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	23,408 notices 2,340,800 OZ 72.808 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: NIL oz

customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks: 321.51 oz (10 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 321.51 oz

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 527 contracts having LOST 103 contracts. We had 98 contracts served ON TUESDAY so we LOST 5 contracts or 500 oz will not stand at the comex and these guys were EFP’d to London.

May lost 21 contracts up to 1757.

June GAINED 326 contracts UP to 402,529 contracts.

We had 142 contracts filed for today representing 14,200 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 142 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 20 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,408 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 507 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 142 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,377,300 OZ OR 73.944 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,408 x 100 oz)+ 507 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (142)x 100 oz} which equals 2,377,300 oz standing OR 73.944 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 73.944 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 1,703,295.912 OZ 52,97 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,943,132.493 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,292,837.996 (382.358 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,650,294.497 O Z

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,589,542 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 329.379 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

APRIL 19//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	261,137.720 oz CNT .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	786,152.915 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	31 CONTRACT(S) (255,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	21 contracts (105,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	344 Contracts (1,720,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i)Into Delaware 786,152.915 oz

Total deposits: 786,152.915 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.154 million oz/273.704 million =51.51% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals: 1

i) Out of CNT 261,137.720 oz

Total withdrawals; 261,137.720 oz

adjustments: 1

Int Delaware, dealer to customer: 10,004.790 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.048 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.704 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 52 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 34 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 34 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 170,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.

MAY SAW A LOSS OF 5631 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 66,264

JUNE HAD A 93 CONTRACTS GAIN TO 248

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for 105,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 90,083 strong

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,312 fair

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 344 x 5,000 oz = 1,720,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(52) and the number of notices served upon today 31 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 344 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (52) – number of notices served upon today (31 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates to 1.835 million oz +/ NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY: 5.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MONTH OF APRIL: 25.83 MILLION OZ// THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING: 27.655 MILLION OZ//

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF .94 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.26 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES

MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 924.26 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ

MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 465.002 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: RICE

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

Crypto Crashes Amid Cascade Of Long Liquidations

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 08:12 AM

Bitcoin is making headlines this morning after a sudden plunge back to $29,000 as a cascade of long liquidations fueled fresh fears of downside risk.

Source: Bloomberg

The sudden drop followed yesterday’s almost-as-sudden surge back above the $30,000 mark.

“Deep correction on the markets, as Bitcoin can’t hold at $29,700-29,800 and shoots downwards through a cascade of liquidations,“ Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

As CoinTelegraph reports, hours prior, monitoring resource Material Indicators had flagged changing conditions on the Binance order book, arguing that the result could still swing both ways, with either bulls or bears profiting.

Notably, this was exacerbated by a so-called long-squeeze…

“The hotter-than-expected U.K. CPI may have weighed over risk assets, including BTC. But the gravity of the reaction has been far far more severe than in other asset classes,” Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, told CoinDesk.

“Seems to be more of a leverage washout. Binance OI in BTCUSDT perps fell 5.1% in 15 minutes, effects more severe in ETH with larger liquidation volume than BTC,” Lunde said, referring to open interest, or the total number of contracts in the futures market.

Equity futures have seen waves of selling pressure overnight too…

Prominent Crypto Twitter trader @52kskew pointed out that a 16,000 bitcoin sell order, worth over $467 million at current prices, preceded the dump, which may have initiated the long squeeze.

“16K BTC is unusual size to be market sold solely from Binance spot usually the kind of sale happens before bad news comes out,” @52kskew opined in a follow-up tweet.

At the time of writing, total crypto long liquidations for April 19 stood at around $185 million on platforms monitored by data resource Coinglass.

In fact, the selling pressure is across all crypto with Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin (after rallying post-Shapella hard-fork)…

Source: Bloomberg

…as ETH liquidations in the last four hours ($38.4mm) topped BTC liquidations in the same period ($28.9mm)…

Finally, we note that options traders have leaned bearish in recent days…

Since April 5, Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio has been either balanced or favoring protective put options. The current 0.60 indicator slightly shows higher demand for neutral-to-bearish option strategies, although there is nothing out of the ordinary.

Gold has also been hit this morning, back below $2000…

…perhaps lending some credence to this event having been triggered by UK CPI.

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,WEDNESDAY MORNING.11:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8876

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8963

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.20 POINTS OR 0.68%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 282.75 PTS OR 1.37%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 52.07 PTS OR 0.18%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.57 EURO FALLS TO 1.0961 DOWN 45 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.470Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 134.59 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.5025***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.345*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.535…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.297

3j Gold at $1995.00 silver at: 25.25 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 28 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.74//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.59 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .470% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8982 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9846 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.629 UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.820 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2756 UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.40…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 14 BASIS PTS AT 3.8795

end

2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Slide After Hawkish Bullard Comments, Red Hot UK Inflation

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 07:45 AM

US equity futures fell following hawkish comments from FOMC non-voter Jim Bullard and another double digit CPI print out of the UK; China was weak with property names dropping -2% led by Hong Kong developers which dropped after city leader John Lee dismissed calls by the industry to scrap property cooling measures. Sentiment was also dented by news Tesla cut prices again – just hours before it reports Q1 earnings -which is likely to not be well received by auto sector. Netflix tumbled as much as 12% on Tuesday before recouping almost all losses after a miss on subscribers but after boosting cash flow. Regional banks within a hair of new lows but WAL numbers overnight should give some support to the sector.

Contracts on the S&P 500 fell 0.5% at 7:15 a.m. ET Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.8% as the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to nearly 3.62%, mirroring larger moves in UK gilts following the abovementioned CPI print. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the day’s highs, pressuring most Group-of-10 currencies. Oil, gold and Bitcoin all fall in tandem.

In premarket trading, Tesla dropped 2% after further cutting prices on some models in what is an increasingly bitter price war to capture EV market share ahead of first-quarter results due later Wednesday. Netflix dipped after the video-streaming firm added fewer subscribers than anticipated in the first quarter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Western Alliance rises as much as 18%, boosting shares in fellow regional lenders, as analysts viewed the bank’s balance-sheet repositioning positively, highlighting measures to improve liquidity. The company said deposits rose $2 billion this month through April 14, an encouraging signal given March’s turmoil in the industry following the collapse of SVB.
Netflix falls 1.3% after the video-streaming company added fewer subscribers than had been anticipated in the first quarter. However, analysts remain positive on the stock’s long-term prospects as the company raised its full-year free cash flow forecast. UBS upgraded to buy from neutral. Shares of video streaming companies were lower after Netflix added fewer subscribers than had been anticipated in the first quarter. FuboTV -3.2%, Roku -1.3%.
Intuitive Surgical jumps 7.1% after the maker of surgical tools reported procedure growth for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, sending analyst price targets higher. Brokers said Intuitive’s results bode well for peers, and show the environment is improving for such companies as they recover from pandemic-related disruptions to medical procedures.
United Airlines climbs as much as 0.8% after the carrier reported a narrower-than-estimated loss for the first quarter. Analysts said the company’s outlook was strong and showed that demand for travel is holding up.
Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital lead fellow cryptocurrency- exposed stocks lower as Bitcoin records its biggest drop in over a month, falling back below the $30,000 mark.

With tax receipts filtering in expect to see a broad based liquidity drain over the next few weeks. CTA positioning is approaching fully long, macro buying has persisted for 6 weeks (nets have crept higher ) and the Goldman trading desk has already seen quite substantial vol control demand with vix back to a 16 handle.

Investors are monitoring earnings to assess how companies have grappled with headwinds including slowing demand and higher interest rates. At the same time, they’re looking for clues if and when the Federal Reserve will end its tightening policy amid fears of a recession and more bank failures.

“Central banks, for now, will keep hiking until they see more evidence of lower inflation down the road,” Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau said on Bloomberg Television. “Inflation is still high and to some extent growth is resilient at the same time, so I think the resolve of central banks to hike and to see more evidence of inflation coming down is still here.” Separately, Cau said in a note that there’s scope for first-quarter earnings to beat estimates given that growth momentum has rebounded in China, and held up better than expected in the US and Europe.

Globally, volatility has remained at low levels leading many bearish strategists to warn of complacency. Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he favors raising rates one more time and then holding them above 5% for some time to curb inflation, while his St. Louis counterpart James Bullard said he prefers getting rates into a 5.5% to 5.75% range. Global markets appear to be overbought and “people should not be too complacent” about the reduced volatility, JPMorgan Asset Management’s Head of Investment Specialists for Asia excluding Japan Jonathan Liang said in a Bloomberg Television interview. He added that a US recession has not yet been priced in.

DAX and CAC lose 0.1%, while UK stocks underperformed their regional peers following another month of hotter than expected double-digit CPI, pushing the FTSE 100 down 0.3%. Here are the biggest European movers:

Worldline shares jump as much as 9.4%, most since July, after the French payments company launched a joint-venture in merchant payments with Credit Agricole
Heineken shares rise as much as 3.9% after 1Q update, with analysts saying the Dutch brewer’s pricing power helped offset some expected but unwelcome volume weakness in key markets
Kuehne + Nagel climbs as much as 2.2% after the Swiss logistics giant was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cited better freight data
National Express shares rise as much as 5.8%, with analysts saying the transport operator delivered a strong first-quarter revenue performance that will underpin its guidance
ASML shares fall as much as 3.5% in Amsterdam after the semiconductor-equipment maker reported its lowest quarterly order intake since 2020 amid an industry downturn
Renault falls as much as 4.4% was downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA amid higher EV competition and price pressures. Renault is also set to release 1Q sales figures tomorrow
Just Eat Takeaway shares dip as much as 6.1% in Amsterdam, paring gains of as much as 5.1%, after the food-delivery company reported first-quarter orders that were below expectations

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as Chinese shares struggled to find footing after mixed economic data released Tuesday, while investors parsed the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials on interest-rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9%, led by consumer discretionary and technology shares. Hong Kong and Chinese benchmarks led losses around the region, while South Korea edged closer to a bull market. Australia also advanced. The latest set of Chinese economic data showed an uneven recovery picture, while hopes for further stimulus have been dampened. That has kept a lid on investor enthusiasm as it signals China’s recovery will likely be gradual, even though the worst may be over after its reopening from Covid Zero.

Japanese stocks declined, halting an eight-day rally, as investors remained concerned about the risk of higher US interest rates and Chinese equities were hit by shareholders’ plans to trim their stakes. The Topix was virtually unchanged at 2,040.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.2% to 28,606.76. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 753 rose and 1,251 fell, while 154 were unchanged. “With the stock indexes at a high level, profit-taking selling is prevailing,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, a general manager at SBI Securities.

Australian stocks edged higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising just 0.1% to close at 7,365.50, buoyed by miners as most sectors dropped. Asian shares fell with US stock futures as traders weighed earnings from Wall Street and as Chinese equities were hit by shareholders’ plans to trim their stakes.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3% having risen versus the rest of its G-10 rivals amid some modest risk-off. US and German short-end yields have followed their UK counterparts higher, rising by 7bps and 5bps respectively.

“The picture being painted by the data released so far this week will likely be raising concerns inside the BOE,” said Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London. “This likely means a continuation of its hiking cycle, a lengthening that will come at a time when peers such as the Federal Reserve will likely have paused with their own cycle of interest-rate rises.”

In rates, treasuries fell, lifting the 10-year yield 6bps higher to 3.63%, the highest since March 22, as BOE and Fed rate hike bets mount following higher-than-forecast UK inflation figures. US yields cheaper by 2bp-7bp across the curve at highest levels this month, with front-end-led losses flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp and ~3bp on the day. Money markets price 23bps of Fed hikes next month and 31bps by June; 46bps of easing is priced by year-end. Gilts are sharply lower and the pound has outperformed as traders ramp up bets on additional rate hikes from the Bank of England after UK inflation surprised to the upside. UK two-year yields have jumped 14bps to a six-week high of 3.83% while the pound gains 0.2% versus the greenback. BOE rate hike wagers surge even more, pricing a 5.03% peak rate by November — the highest since October — compared to 4.86% on Monday. Treasury auctions resume with $12b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm; $21b 5-year TIPS new-issue is ahead Thursday

In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 1.9% to trade near $79.30. Spot gold is down 1.4% around $1,978.

Bitcoin has come under marked pressure this morning, with BTC dropping from USD 30k to a test of USD 29k in minutes. At the time, there was no clear fundamental catalyst with the likes of Coindesk subsequently suggesting it may have been spurred by long-liquidations. US House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on stablecoin regulation on Wednesday, according to Cointelegraph.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for March. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, the ECB’s Lane, Knot, de Cos, and Schnabel, as well as the BoE’s Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Tesla, Morgan Stanley and IBM.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,162.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 467.44
MXAP down 0.8% to 162.36
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 523.41
Nikkei down 0.2% to 28,606.76
Topix little changed at 2,040.38
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 20,367.76
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,370.13
Sensex down 0.4% to 59,470.47
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,365.54
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,575.08
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.52%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0960
Brent Futures down 1.7% to $83.37/bbl
Gold spot down 1.0% to $1,985.90
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 101.89

Top Overnight News

Washington and Beijing tensions continue to creep higher, w/the White House set to unveil stringent new rules limiting American investments on the mainland. Politico
South Korea’s CPI for Mar overshoots the St, coming in at +7.1% (vs. the consensus forecast of +6.9% and up from +7% in Feb). BBG
India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN data released on Wednesday, marking a historic crossover moment for the two Asian neighbors and geopolitical rivals. According to the UN’s Population Dashboard, India’s population has surpassed 1.428bn, just overtaking China’s more than 1.425bn people. FT
Russian officials quietly raised concerns last year about the risks of becoming too reliant on Chinese technologies after sanctions shut off access to other suppliers. The memo suggests some are worried Chinese firms such as Huawei may come to dominate the Russian market and threaten information security and networks, people familiar said. BBG
UK inflation for Mar overshoots the St, coming in at +10.1% on the headline (vs. the St consensus of +9.8% and down only modest from +10.4% in Feb). RTRS
Passenger-car registrations across the EU rose in March on the year as each of the bloc’s largest markets saw double-digit growth, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ACEA, said Wednesday. New car registrations, which reflect sales, rose to 1,087,939 units, a 29% increase compared with March 2022, while registrations in the first quarter rose 18% to almost 2.7 million units, the ACEA said. WSJ
The EU is storing record levels of natural gas after a milder than anticipated winter, bolstering hopes that the bloc can wean itself off imports from Russia. The bloc’s storage totaled 55.7 per cent of capacity at the start of the month according to the industry body Gas Infrastructure Europe — the highest level for early April since at least 2011. FT
US crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels last week, the API is said to report. That would take total holdings to the lowest in two months if confirmed by the EIA. Gasoline supplies declined by 1 million, dropping for a ninth week ahead of the summer driving season. Distillate stocks also dropped. Elsewhere in oil, a rush in Asia to secure supplies after OPEC+’s output-cut surprise is fading. BBG
CDW a large distributor of IT products, announced a negative preannouncement (they see Q1 revenue of $5.1B vs. the Street consensus of $5.57B and full-year EPS is now seen falling Y/Y vs. the St consensus of +6%). RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were lacklustre in the absence of any major positive macro drivers and following the flat handover from Wall St where risk sentiment was clouded amid mixed data releases and earnings results. ASX 200 was kept afloat amid outperformance in the mining and materials sectors although gains were limited by weakness in energy and consumer stocks, as well as uninspiring data with Westpac Leading Index flat. Nikkei 225 declined after the latest Reuters Tankan survey for April showed Japanese manufacturers remained glum with the Large Manufacturing Index stuck in negative territory. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with underperformance in Hong Kong amid losses in autos, property and tech, while the mainland was also cautious ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s major speech on Thursday regarding US-China Economic ties where she will outline US economic priorities on China.

Top Asian News

BoJ is reportedly wary of tweaking yield control in April, via Bloomberg; BoJ is reportedly likely to mull of guidance change can wait or not; smoother yield curve is said to suggest no need for a move now; seeing elevated uncertainties after the banking crisis.
China’s NDRC said it is studying and drafting documents to recover and expand consumption, while it added that it will work hard to stabilise auto consumption, according to Reuters.
UBS raises it FY23 Chinese GDP forecast to 5.7% Y/Y from 5.4%.

European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after the index’s largest weighted component ASML drops post-earnings despite beating estimates as it highlights caution among customers. Elsewhere, the macro backdrop has been influenced by hotter-than-expected UK CPI data with a hawkish move seen in Europe/UK at the time, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Given the above, sectors have a negative skew with Real Estate lagging as yields increase while Tech names slip given ASML, at the other end of the spectrum Food, Beverage and Tobacco outperforms after Heineken’s update. Stateside, futures are in the red with the Nasdaq lagging as yields increase while banking names are deriving support from WAL’s after-hours update. Netflix Inc (NFLX): Top- and bottom-lines were broadly in line with expectations, although net subscriber additions were short in the quarter, and guidance for the next quarter was soft relative to analyst expectations; some analysts suggested that the soft subscriber guidance was a result of pushing back the launch of its paid-sharing service into Q2. Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL): The regional bank reported that deposits stabilised in Q1, and profits topped expectations.

Top European News

Morgan Stanley now expects the BoE to hike rates by 25bps in May vs. prev. view of unchanged.
Central London property prices fell nearly 5% in the 12 months to March which is the largest annual decline since 2019, according to FT

Overall, the session is characterised by broad USD strength which is seemingly being fuelled by yield action and associated JPY underperformance alongside dovish-sounding BoJ commentary.
Thus far, the DXY has eclipsed the 102.00 handle to a 102.18 peak from a 101.65 base, with upside initially capped by GBP outperformance after hotter-than-expected CPI data; Cable peaked at 1.2472, but has since been drawn back to 1.2400.
Returning to the JPY, USD/JPY has most recently pulled-back from the 135.00 mark to circa. 134.75 after source reports suggest the BoJ is wary of tweaking yield control in April, via Bloomberg.
Elsewhere, peers are broadly-speaking softer against the USD with EUR unreactive to final HICP as marked OpEx draws interest while the CHF experienced only a fleeting upside from SNB’s Maechler.
Note, given the marked crude move petro-FX has been coming under slightly more pressure as the session progressed, with USD/CAD below the 200-DMA and towards its 10-DMA.
SNB’s Maechler says inflation is back with a vengeance and monetary policy is back to the traditional tools. Ready to sell foreign currencies..
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8731 vs exp. 6.8728 (prev. 6.8814)

Fixed Income

Gilts once again underperform after hawkish UK data ahead of the May BoE, with 25bp now fully priced compared to circa. 80% before-hand.
As such, Gilts have been down to 99.85 with the associated 10yr yield above 3.85%
Action which has been seen, though to a lesser extent, in EGBs and USTs and has served as another bout of concession before the well-received Bund outing and the upcoming US 20yr; albeit, limited upside from the German sale.
Stateside, USTs remain pressured pre-supply/Goolsbee with the curve elevated and action again most pronounced at the short-end.

Commodities

WTI and Brent are under marked pressure that has seen the benchmarks move below the last two week’s lows amid broad USD strength; note, the move occurred despite a lack of timely drivers and the initial bout did not coincide with Dollar action.
Specifically, the benchmarks have moved below USD 79/bbl and USD 83/bbl respectively, from initial USD 81.24/bbl and USD 85/15/bbl peaks.
China’s NDRC said it will speed up the construction of iron ore projects and will firmly curb an irrational rise in iron ore prices, according to Reuters.
China’s Huayou Cobalt is looking to build a nickel ore processing plant in the Philippines, according to an industry source cited by Reuters.
Spot gold has succumbed to the firmer USD and has surrendered the USD 2k/oz handle to a USD 1972/oz trough, with base metals under similar pressure though ranges are somewhat more contained in the likes of LME Copper.
Ukraine’s Deputy PM says ship inspections are recommencing under the Black Sea grain initiative and grain transit through Poland is to open overnight Thursday/Friday.

Geopolitics

US did not issue visas to all members of the Russian delegation going to the UN, according to RIA.
UK government cyber defence agency warned of a threat to Western infrastructure from hackers sympathetic to Russia and its war on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
South Korean President Yoon said South Korea may consider providing military aid for Ukraine if a large attack on civilians occurs and it will take the most appropriate measures considering battlefield developments in Ukraine. Yoon also commented that he won’t hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim for show but the door for dialogue to promote peace remains open, while South Korea is developing ultra-high performance and high-power weapons to respond to North Korea’s emerging threats and is discussing extended deterrence plans with the US including information sharing, joint planning and joint execution, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim ordered the preparation to launch a military spy satellite as planned and ordered the deployment of a series of spy satellites to boost reconnaissance capabilities, according to KCNA.
US House China Select Committee will be war-gaming a scenario of China invading Taiwan, according to Axios
A leaked US military assessment stated that China’s military could soon deploy a high-altitude supersonic spy drone unit, according to Washington Post.

US event calendar

07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.3%
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
17:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Interviewed on Marketplace
19:00: Fed’s Williams Speaks in New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m in the US showing off my panda eye ski tan for the rest of the week. Before I left I had the weirdest, nostalgic dollop of deja-vu. Unbeknown to me my wife had bought our five-year-old twins their first Panini football card album. To say they were immediately obsessed was an understatement. It brought back memories of me desperate to swap my excess cards for one Ian Rush sticker over 40 years ago. From my brief interactions before I left it seems they’ll do anything for a pack of new cards now to expand their set. So we have a list of chores that completing will gain a set. I’ve written to Panini to see if they’ll do an Investment Bank edition. Imagine the excitement of getting the full house of DB Research professionals’ stickers in your book before one of our rivals!

The market has been collecting a few duller days of late but it probably wouldn’t want to swap for those seen a month or so ago. The last 24 hours fitted into that narrative with most major assets closing either side of unchanged. We did get several earnings releases to chew over, but they were pretty mixed overall and didn’t point to an obvious conclusion for investors, and it was much the same from yesterday’s limited round of data. So with all said and done, the S&P 500 ultimately ended the day just +0.08% higher, remaining in its narrow band over April that’s left it within a range of little more than 1% either side of its level at the start of the month.

With little volatility to speak of, that’s enabled a continued easing in financial conditions, with Bloomberg’s index hitting a post-SVB high yesterday. In fact, it’s now unwound around 90% of the tightening related to last month’s market turmoil, so it’s increasingly feeling like a bad dream with little lasting impact on market based financial conditions. We’ll see from the SLOOS report in a couple of weeks whether there has been scars from bank-based financial conditions. For now the looser market-based financial conditions have helped cement investors’ conviction that the Fed are set to deliver another hike in just two weeks’ from now, which was supported by the latest round of FOMC speakers. For instance, St Louis Fed President Bullard struck a bullish tone on the economy, saying that “Wall Street’s very engaged in the idea there’s going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn’t really the way you would read an expansion like this.” Later on, Atlanta Fed President Bostic then said that his baseline was for one further hike and then a pause that left them there for “quite some time”. But even as officials offered more signals about another rate hike, 10yr Treasuries reversed a touch to end the day -2.5bps lower at 3.576%. Fed futures ticked slightly lower with the probability of a rate hike next month dropping 2 percentage points to 85.8% but this comes after increasing 64pp since the Monday after SVB failed.

When it came to equities, there was a reasonable amount of dispersion given the subdued movements for the broader indices. In fact, there was exactly 50% of constituents higher and lower on the day, with cyclicals outperforming defensives as industrials (+0.46%) and energy (+0.45%) stocks outpaced healthcare (-0.66%), communications (-0.65%) and utilities (-0.51%). In terms of the various earnings reports, the main highlights included Goldman Sachs (-1.70%), whose share price fell back after their FICC sales and trading revenue came in beneath expectations thanks to a -17% decline. Elsewhere, Bank of America’s (+0.63%) trading revenue beat expectations and overall revenue was up 9%. And away from the financials, Johnson & Johnson (-2.81%) was another that struggled, even as they raised their earnings forecast for this year. After the close, NFLX (initially down -12.5% before recovering to unchanged in after-market trading) missed on new subscriber growth (+1.75mn vs +2.41mn estimated) and lowered sales and profit guidance further than analysts expected. United Airlines was up +1.30% in after-market trading after reporting increased international travel that will see stronger 2Q results than analysts expected after posting a first-quarter adjusted loss of $0.63 EPS.

Over in Europe, the performance was a bit stronger yesterday, although in part that reflected a catchup to the US rally after Europe went home the previous day. That enabled the STOXX 600 (+0.38%) to hit a 14-month high, and the Euro STOXX 50 (+0.60%) is now just shy of its closing peak from November 2021, which if surpassed would leave the index at its highest level since late 2007. For bonds there was also a bit more of a risk-on tone, and yields on 10yr bunds ended the day up +0.4bps. That followed comments from ECB chief economist Lane that “I think the baseline is that we should indeed increase interest rates in May”.

Whilst most sovereign bonds in Europe were fairly steady yesterday, back in the UK, gilts were an underperformer thanks to data that showed stronger-than-expected wage growth, and the 10yr yield climbed +5.6bps on the day. The release showed that growth in average total pay was up +5.9% (vs. +5.1% expected) over the three months to February compared to the previous year. And with upward revisions to the previous month as well, the data added to fears that inflation would prove more persistent than expected, and that the Bank of England would need to hike rates yet further. Indeed, the chances of another 25bp rate hike at the May meeting moved up to 90.1% according to overnight index swaps, the highest level since SVB’s collapse. On that front, the next crucial component will be the CPI release this morning, which should be coming out around the time this email hits your inboxes.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning following the lacklustre performance on Wall Street overnight. As I type, the Hang Seng (-0.60%) is leading losses across the region, pulled down by technology and real estate stocks, while the CSI (-0.50%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) and the Nikkei (-0.24%) are also in the red amid the prospect of interest rate hikes from the Fed. Otherwise, the KOSPI (+0.23%) is bucking the regional market trend in early trading, albeit only just.

Outside of Asia, US stock futures are retreating with those on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.16%) inching downward following the latest round of earnings.

Running through yesterday’s other data, the German ZEW survey’s expectations component fell back for a second month running in April, with a decline to 4.1 (vs. 15.6 expected). In Canada, CPI inflation declined as expected in March, falling back to 4.3%. And finally in the US, housing starts decelerated in March, falling to an annualised rate of 1.42m (vs. 1.40m expected), with building permits also falling back to 1.413m (vs. 1.45m expected).

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

Marked USD strength as yields lift; hot UK CPI; ASML lower, WAL surges post-earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 06:41 AM

European bourses are in the red as ASML highlights caution among customers & with the macro backdrop influenced by hawkish UK CPI.
Stateside, futures are in the red with the NQ lagging as yields increase while banking names are deriving support from WAL’s after-hours update.
The session is characterised by broad USD strength, seemingly fuelled by yields and JPY underperformance.
Though, the latter dynamic briefly lessened following a BoJ sources piece; GBP the relative outperformer post-CPI.
As such, Gilts once again underperform with EGBs & USTs lower in sympathy, action which provided more pre-supply concessions.
Crude benchmarks have experienced marked downside with fundamentals limited amid broad strength and the surrender of recent lows.
Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand CPI; Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Mann, SNB’s Schlegel. Supply from the US. Earnings from American Airlines, IBM, Tesla, Morgan Stanley & Abbott.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after the index’s largest weighted component ASML drops post-earnings despite beating estimates as it highlights caution among customers.
Elsewhere, the macro backdrop has been influenced by hotter-than-expected UK CPI data with a hawkish move seen in Europe/UK at the time, FTSE 100 -0.4%.
Given the above, sectors have a negative skew with Real Estate lagging as yields increase while Tech names slip given ASML, at the other end of the spectrum Food, Beverage and Tobacco outperforms after Heineken’s update.
Stateside, futures are in the red with the Nasdaq lagging as yields increase while banking names are deriving support from WAL’s after-hours update.
Netflix Inc (NFLX): Top- and bottom-lines were broadly in line with expectations, although net subscriber additions were short in the quarter, and guidance for the next quarter was soft relative to analyst expectations; some analysts suggested that the soft subscriber guidance was a result of pushing back the launch of its paid-sharing service into Q2.
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL): The regional bank reported that deposits stabilised in Q1, and profits topped expectations.
ASML (ASML NA) Q1 2023 (EUR): Revenue 6.75bln (exp. 6.3bln), Net Income 1.95bln (exp. 1.64bln), EPS 4.96 (exp. 4.13), Gross Profit 3.4bln, Gross Margin 50.6% (exp. 49.8%). Total 2022 dividend of 5.80/shr (exp. 6.60/shr).
Click here for more detail.

FX

Overall, the session is characterised by broad USD strength which is seemingly being fuelled by yield action and associated JPY underperformance alongside dovish-sounding BoJ commentary.
Thus far, the DXY has eclipsed the 102.00 handle to a 102.18 peak from a 101.65 base, with upside initially capped by GBP outperformance after hotter-than-expected CPI data; Cable peaked at 1.2472, but has since been drawn back to 1.2400.
Returning to the JPY, USD/JPY has most recently pulled-back from the 135.00 mark to circa. 134.75 after source reports suggest the BoJ is wary of tweaking yield control in April, via Bloomberg.
Elsewhere, peers are broadly-speaking softer against the USD with EUR unreactive to final HICP as marked OpEx draws interest while the CHF experienced only a fleeting upside from SNB’s Maechler.
Note, given the marked crude move petro-FX has been coming under slightly more pressure as the session progressed, with USD/CAD below the 200-DMA and towards its 10-DMA.
SNB’s Maechler says inflation is back with a vengeance and monetary policy is back to the traditional tools. Ready to sell foreign currencies..
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8731 vs exp. 6.8728 (prev. 6.8814)
Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

Gilts once again underperform after hawkish UK data ahead of the May BoE, with 25bp now fully priced compared to circa. 80% before-hand.
As such, Gilts have been down to 99.85 with the associated 10yr yield above 3.85%
Action which has been seen, though to a lesser extent, in EGBs and USTs and has served as another bout of concession before the well-received Bund outing and the upcoming US 20yr; albeit, limited upside from the German sale.
Stateside, USTs remain pressured pre-supply/Goolsbee with the curve elevated and action again most pronounced at the short-end.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent are under marked pressure that has seen the benchmarks move below the last two week’s lows amid broad USD strength; note, the move occurred despite a lack of timely drivers and the initial bout did not coincide with Dollar action.
Specifically, the benchmarks have moved below USD 79/bbl and USD 83/bbl respectively, from initial USD 81.24/bbl and USD 85/15/bbl peaks.
China’s NDRC said it will speed up the construction of iron ore projects and will firmly curb an irrational rise in iron ore prices, according to Reuters.
China’s Huayou Cobalt is looking to build a nickel ore processing plant in the Philippines, according to an industry source cited by Reuters.
Spot gold has succumbed to the firmer USD and has surrendered the USD 2k/oz handle to a USD 1972/oz trough, with base metals under similar pressure though ranges are somewhat more contained in the likes of LME Copper.
Ukraine’s Deputy PM says ship inspections are recommencing under the Black Sea grain initiative and grain transit through Poland is to open overnight Thursday/Friday.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Morgan Stanley now expects the BoE to hike rates by 25bps in May vs. prev. view of unchanged.
Central London property prices fell nearly 5% in the 12 months to March which is the largest annual decline since 2019, according to FT

DATA RECAP

UK CPI YY (Mar) 10.1% vs. Exp. 9.8% (Prev. 10.4%); MM (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.1%)
UK CPI All Services 12-month rate 6.6% (prev. 6.6%)
UK Core CPI YY (Mar) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.2%); MM (Mar) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.2%)
EU HICP Final YY (Mar) 6.9% vs. Exp. 6.9% (Prev. 6.9%); X F&E Final YY (Mar) 7.5% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 7.5%); X F, E, A & T Final YY (Mar) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.7%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Biden and Democratic congressional leaders Schumer and Jeffries agreed in a call that they won’t negotiate on the debt limit, while Biden said he was ready to separately negotiate regarding the budget once Republicans present their plan, according to the White House cited by Reuters.
TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) is reportedly seeking up to USD 15bln from the US for semiconductor plans, but pushes back on conditions that require factory profits to be shared and for detailed operation information to be provided, according to WSJ sources.
Synchrony Financial (SYF) Q1 2023 (USD): Diluted EPS 1.35 (exp. 1.46), total deposits USD 74.4bln (exp. 71.4bln)
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

US did not issue visas to all members of the Russian delegation going to the UN, according to RIA.
UK government cyber defence agency warned of a threat to Western infrastructure from hackers sympathetic to Russia and its war on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
South Korean President Yoon said South Korea may consider providing military aid for Ukraine if a large attack on civilians occurs and it will take the most appropriate measures considering battlefield developments in Ukraine. Yoon also commented that he won’t hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim for show but the door for dialogue to promote peace remains open, while South Korea is developing ultra-high performance and high-power weapons to respond to North Korea’s emerging threats and is discussing extended deterrence plans with the US including information sharing, joint planning and joint execution, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim ordered the preparation to launch a military spy satellite as planned and ordered the deployment of a series of spy satellites to boost reconnaissance capabilities, according to KCNA.
US House China Select Committee will be war-gaming a scenario of China invading Taiwan, according to Axios
A leaked US military assessment stated that China’s military could soon deploy a high-altitude supersonic spy drone unit, according to Washington Post.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin has come under marked pressure this morning, with BTC dropping from USD 30k to a test of USD 29k in a limited timeframe. At the time, there was no clear fundamental catalyst with the likes of Coindesk subsequently suggesting it may have been spurred by long-liquidations.
US House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on stablecoin regulation on Wednesday, according to Cointelegraph.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were lacklustre in the absence of any major positive macro drivers and following the flat handover from Wall St where risk sentiment was clouded amid mixed data releases and earnings results.
ASX 200 was kept afloat amid outperformance in the mining and materials sectors although gains were limited by weakness in energy and consumer stocks, as well as uninspiring data with Westpac Leading Index flat.
Nikkei 225 declined after the latest Reuters Tankan survey for April showed Japanese manufacturers remained glum with the Large Manufacturing Index stuck in negative territory.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with underperformance in Hong Kong amid losses in autos, property and tech, while the mainland was also cautious ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s major speech on Thursday regarding US-China Economic ties where she will outline US economic priorities on China.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

BoJ is reportedly wary of tweaking yield control in April, via Bloomberg; BoJ is reportedly likely to mull of guidance change can wait or not; smoother yield curve is said to suggest no need for a move now; seeing elevated uncertainties after the banking crisis.
China’s NDRC said it is studying and drafting documents to recover and expand consumption, while it added that it will work hard to stabilise auto consumption, according to Reuters.
UBS raises it FY23 Chinese GDP forecast to 5.7% Y/Y from 5.4%.

DATA RECAP

Australian Westpac Leading Index MM (Mar) 0.0% (Prev. -0.1%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

If this happens, the uSA will go ballistic

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/RUSSIA

Russia Threatens To Give North Korea Advanced Weapons If Seoul Arms Ukraine

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 03:25 PM

Former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has threatened that the Kremlin could give advanced weapons to North Korea if South Korea moves to send military aid to Ukraine.

This comes in response to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol floating the possibility of a drastic policy shift. He’ll travel to the United States next week for an official visit. He said in a Reuters interview published Wednesday, “If there is a situation the international community cannot condone, such as any large-scale attack on civilians, massacre or serious violation of the laws of war, it might be difficult for us to insist only on humanitarian or financial support.”

“I believe there won’t be limitations to the extent of the support to defend and restore a country that’s been illegally invaded both under international and domestic law,” Yoon explained. “Considering our relationship with the parties engaged in the war and developments in the battlefield, we will take the most appropriate measures,” he added.

As Reuters notes, “It was the first time that Seoul suggested a willingness to provide weapons to Ukraine, more than a year after ruling out the possibility of lethal aid.”

Last year, US officials and Western media made accusations that North Korea was supplying Russia with artillery ammo and other defense items.

But if Russia actually gave advanced weapons to Pyongyang and the Kim Jong-Un regime, Washington would go ballistic, particularly at this sensitive moment of heightened tensions following repeat missile tests by the north.

But Medvedev is threatening just that, according to Russian media:

“I wonder what the residents of this nation would say when they see the newest example of Russian weapons in possession of their closest neighbors, our partners from the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]?” Medvedev wrote on social media.

The threat certainly ups the ante and is likely to impact Seoul’s decision-making.

Some South Korean officials have reportedly mulled the possibility of indirectly aiding Ukraine, which would involve making the weapons available to a third-party country which in turn would arm Kiev. Likely this scenario is something the Biden administration would support.

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

TAIWAN/CHINA/USA

Taiwan To Buy 400 US Anti-Ship Missiles, Announced As China Conducts “Major” Military Drills

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 11:05 PM

Taiwan is set to purchase up to 400 land-launched Harpoon missiles in order to repel a future Chinese invasion, according to the president of the US-Taiwan Business Council Rupert Hammond-Chambers, speaking to Bloomberg.

While Harpoons have previously been purchased by Taiwan for deployment on warships, this marks a first time acquisition of the mobile, land-launched version.

Per Bloomberg, “The Pentagon announced the $1.7 billion contract with Boeing on April 7 but made no mention of Taiwan as the purchaser” at a moment of tense US-China relations due to ratcheting Chinese military drills around the self-ruled island.

As the Monday report additionally reviews:

The Harpoon contract has been cited by members of Congress including Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, as part of as much $19 billion in “backlogged US sales to Taiwan that they say need to accelerated. In addition to the Harpoon, the list includes the F-16 Block 70 fighter, the MK-48 torpedo, the M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzer and the Stinger missile.

Additionally the US-Taiwan Business Council has now confirmed the Harpoon is to be transferred.

Meanwhile China’s military announced on the same day it is conducting “major military activity” in the Yellow Sea in waters off the coast of Shandong province.

While these drills were only scheduled for a few hours, they follow a series of major days-long encircling drills threatening Taiwan, which have been going off-and-on since earlier this month Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California’s Simi Valley, a meeting which Beijing warned strongly against.

END

CHINA/USA

“This Is Industrial Suicide”: Biden’s EV Plan Could Be Key To China’s Global Economic Dominance

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) “strongest-ever” vehicle emissions standards designed to drive mass adoption of electric cars within a decade will increase the United States’ dependence on China, experts warn.

“It benefits the Chinese Communist Party because they control the critical minerals supply chain that is going to be necessary to build out the batteries for those electric vehicles,” said Mandy Gunasekara, director of the Center for Energy and Conservation at Independent Women’s Forum, a conservative think tank, in an April 17 interview with The Epoch Times.

Gunasekara served as chief of staff in the EPA under former President Donald Trump. She argued that the Trump administration did a better job of integrating environmental, economic, and strategic considerations than the Biden team, including when it came to the critical minerals used in electric vehicles (EVs) and other technologies.

“There was a concerted effort to ensure we weren’t setting regulations that shut down industrial activity here in the United States, knowing good and well that productivity doesn’t go away—it just materializes somewhere else, and typically a place like China,” she said.

The agency anticipates that with the new standards, two-thirds of new light-body vehicles will be electric by the model year 2032, up from less than six percent today.

The proposed rules, which would go into effect with cars from model year 2027 onward, target tailpipe emissions from light-, medium-, and heavy-body vehicles.

The EPA claims the standards would “significantly reduce climate and other harmful air pollution, unlocking significant benefits for public health, especially in communities that have borne the greatest burden of poor air quality.”

‘Industrial Suicide’

“This is industrial suicide,” said James Kennedy, a U.S. mine owner and rare earths expert, in an April 17 interview with The Epoch Times.

“By design, their goal is to wipe out, to destroy, to effectively terminate the massive economic investment that the auto companies have made in the internal combustion engine,” he said.

He outlined China’s long-range, strategic plan to dominate the mining and refining of rare earths, as well as the production of downstream technologies.

“No one in the West will accept the reality that China has total domain control at every level,” he added.

The rare earth metals terbium, holmium, and dysprosium are one key choke point for Chinese control over EV production.

Kennedy explained that the elements enable neodymium magnets to function at the high temperatures found in the motors of electric cars.

“China is the only country in the world, period, exclamation point, that can separate those materials,” he said.

Laugh out loud at false egos.

This is hilarious, China has announced that it has banned senior executives of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin from entering, working staying in// residing in// China. Further, China will now enforce its February 16 ban on Chinese enterprises from conducting import and export activities with these two companies. This also includes micro chips from Taiwan.

Apart from the stock market hit that these two companies just took; if this ban of micro chips is in the force, then two main defense contractors are basically crippled. If you assume the channel ratchet this up a bit more, you can well be that heavy where are the elements will also be banned in coming days . It’s a fact this cripples US production of many military components and goes well beyond defense production.

Neocons really imagined they had all the cards when it came to sanctions. How wrong they are, as more than one party can play this game. If China were to do to Apple they would seriously dent the markets. Now that France has committed Airbus to China via production will Boeing find itself on the outs?

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/04/18/china-reveals-new-details-of-raytheon-lockheed-sanctions/https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/04/18/china-reveals-new-details-of-raytheon-lockheed-sanctions/https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/04/18/china-reveals-new-details-of-raytheon-lockheed-sanctions/

end

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/04/18/china-reveals-new-details-of-raytheon-lockheed-sanctions/

China reveals new details of Raytheon, Lockheed sanctions

By Huizhong Wu, AP

Apr 18, 03:09 PM

FILE – An American flag flies in front of the facade of Raytheon’s Integrated Defense Systems facility in Woburn, Mass., June 10, 2019. China revealed new details of sanctions it previously announced against two U.S. weapons manufacturers, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies Corp.’s Raytheon Missiles & Defense, Tuesday, April 18, 2023, including a ban on Chinese companies doing business with them. (Elise Amendola/AP, File)

TAIPEI, Taiwan — China revealed new details of sanctions it previously announced against two U.S. weapons manufacturers Tuesday, including a ban on Chinese companies doing business with them.

China imposed trade and investment sanctions in February on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies Corp.’s Raytheon Missiles & Defense for supplying weapons to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by China.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement late Tuesday that the sanctions include a ban on exports and imports by the two companies from and to China “to prevent Chinese products from being used in their military business.”

It added that Chinese companies should “strengthen their due diligence and compliance system construction to verify transaction information” and should not knowingly conduct business with the two companies while importing, exporting or transporting products.

It wasn’t clear what immediate impact the penalties might have, but the restrictions on imports and exports could hurt the two companies. The United States bars most sales of weapons-related technology to China, but some military contractors also have civilian businesses in aerospace and other markets.

Last September, Raytheon Missiles and Defense was awarded a $412 million contract to upgrade Taiwanese military radar as part of a $1.1 billion package of U.S. arms sales to the island.

Taiwan buys the majority of its weapons from the U.S., which is its biggest unofficial ally. In recent years, China has frequently sent fighter jets and warships toward the island, surrounding it at different times in a campaign of military pressure and intimidation.

The sanctions also prohibit the senior executives of both companies from traveling to China or working there. They listed Lockheed Martin CEO James Donald Taiclet, COO Frank Andrew St. John and CFO Jesus Malave, and President Wesley D. Kremer and Vice Presidents Agnes Soeder and Chander Nijhon from Raytheon Missiles & Defense

end

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY

how stupid can a country get: Germany closes its last nuclear power plant and they now expect electricity bills to spike 45% higher

(zerohedge)

Germany Closes Its Last Nuclear Power Plants – Electricity Bills To Spike Up To 45%

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 02:45 AM

One might say that the timing could not be worse for the implementation of “net zero” climate goals given the already boiling economic instability across the western world. Then again, maybe the timing is perfect for the people in power?

With stagflation still running rampant in the US and Europe the last thing anyone should be worried about is a less than 1 °C rise in global temperatures in the past 100 years. There is no concrete evidence of any significant climate crisis, and all the people who tell us a crisis is right around the corner do so while raking in billions in funding dollars from governments and think-tank institutions with a vested interest in reinforcing the hysteria. In other words, there is no basis for exponential restrictions on “greenhouse gas” emissions. The climate crisis claim is a sham.

When the policies of the climate cult are examined with a clear head, it becomes obvious that saving the planet is not a primary concern. Rather, the purpose of the agenda is to increase power to government bureaucracies on a level not seen since the feudal empires of centuries past. Get ready for the return of the peasant lifestyle…

One factor that consistently arises in the fight over climate change mandates is the increasing need for energy clashing with deliberate cuts to the means of production. Establishment elites want restricted energy access for the public, and they want people to pay more for each slice of the ever shrinking pie. A perfect example of this dynamic is the widespread effort by such governments to shut down nuclear power plants, one of the cleanest forms of energy we have from the standpoint of carbon emissions.

Germany, already in the midst of an energy shortfall due to the loss of natural gas supplies from Russia, has also just closed its last three operational nuclear power plants this past week, leaving the nation high and dry when it comes to easy accessible electricity. Germany has some of the highest residential electricity prices in all of Europe and they are about to explode even more in the near term.

As energy prices rose last year as a result of the Ukraine conflict, certain members of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government became hesitant to close the nuclear plants as planned on December 31, 2022. Scholz agreed to a one-time extension of the deadline but insisted on the final countdown taking place on April 15.

Alongside the closure of the nuclear plants, German multinational electric utility E.ON increased its prices by as much as 45% starting June 1.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">HOURS BEFORE CLOSING REACTOR, GERMAN UTILITY ANNOUNCES 45% PRICE RISE As Eon closed nuclear, by far its cheapest reliable power, it announced a big jump for many customers from what are already some of Europe's highest prices. Helps buy carbon permits.<a href="https://t.co/kWv4X0urHw">https://t.co/kWv4X0urHw</a> <a href="https://t.co/9gDv45fpPx">pic.twitter.com/9gDv45fpPx</a>— Mark Nelson (@energybants) <a href="https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1647581891485392897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 16, 2023</a></blockquote> https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

“In parts of NRW (North Rhine-Westphalia), the new price is 49.44 cents gross per kilowatt hour, which means an adjustment of around 45 percent for an average consumption,” said a spokesman for Eon Energie in Germany.

Ironically, shortages last winter compelled the German government to increase coal fired power plant operations, yet they are still shutting down clean energy nuclear plants to make way for so-called renewables. If climate change initiatives don’t seem to be making much sense these days, its because there is no logic behind them other than to create incremental chaos. The confusion over conflicting green policies makes way for notoriously inefficient wind and solar power farms that cannot sustain the existing population, but it also allows for a global political power grab on an unprecedented scale.

end

Big surprise to UK but not to us: UK inflation unexpectedly comes in red hot and remains in double digits

(zerohedge)

UK Inflation Unexpectedly Comes In Red Hot, Remains In The Double Digits

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 06:37 AM

Futures are trading near session lows, weighted down by the latest inflation data out of the UK where early this morning, we learned that March inflation remained in the double digits with annual price rises of 10.1%, coming in hotter than expected for the second straight month, and making it more likely that the Bank of England will increase interest rates next month.

February’s CPI was 10.4% and was expected to drop to 9.8% last month, and although petrol and diesel prices fell in the month, fresh sharp rises in the costs of food, recreation and culture — a broad category which includes theater, concerts and sporting events — kept the index in double digits.

The drop in headline inflation was almost entirely caused by motor fuels where the average price of a liter of petrol fell from just over £1.60 in March 2022 to just under £1.47 last month. Across components, the largest downward contributions to the moderation in headline inflation came from transport and housing. Offsetting this and keeping the headline rate high were soaring food prices, especially of bread and cereals, with prices rising 19.1% in the year to March.

Following the uptick in sequential pressures last month, today’s print showed a slowing in the seasonally adjusted MoM pace but the slowing was less than expected and the sequential pace for core inflation remains above that observed in Q4, reflecting continued strength in core goods in particular.

Here are the key numbers:

CPI (Mar): +10.1%; GS: +9.9%; Cons: +9.8%; Previous (Feb): +10.4%, all%yoy.
Core CPI (Mar): +6.2%; Cons: +6.0%; Previous (Feb): +6.2%
RPI (Mar): +13.5%; Cons: +13.3%; Previous (Feb): +13.8%

Following today’s release, Goldman said that it mechanically updated its UK inflation forecast and now expects headline and core inflation to be 3.9%yoy and 4.3%yoy, respectively, in December 2023. Also, given today’s upside surprise, the bank continues to expect the MPC to hike by 25bp at its upcoming May meeting.

And speaking of the BOE, the FT notes that the central bank had been watching these figures very closely as they were the last significant data release before its next meeting in early May and while officials had hoped that there would be the first signs of a significant drop in inflationary pressure, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 6.2%, which remains too high to give them comfort.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has been looking for signs that underlying inflationary pressure is moderating and that declines in the headline rate are not caused solely by large energy price increases last year beginning to drop out of the annual comparisons.

The members will not be reassured by both services inflation remaining at 6.6 per cent and core inflation failing to fall, instead sticking at 6.2 per cent. The MPC has said that it will raise interest rates again from the current 4.25 per cent level, “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures”.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist of the ONS, said that inflation remained at a “high level”. Falling motor fuel prices “were partially offset by the cost of food, which is still climbing steeply, with bread and cereal price inflation at a record high.”

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said that the failure to see any drop in core inflation would require the bank to take action and raise rates again on May 4. “Taken together with yesterday’s strong labour market data, it is now clear that there is more demand in the economy than the Bank of England had expected in the first quarter,” she said.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the fall in the headline rate had been “too modest for the MPC to stop raising rates”.

Capital Economics, the consultancy, said that the stubbornness of high inflation raised the possibility that a rise in interest rates to 4.5% at the May meeting may not be the last.

UK inflation has not been falling as quickly as comparable indicators in many European countries which saw lower energy prices reflected in the March data, but headline rates for the UK are expected to drop significantly next month.

With gas and electricity prices for April already known, the annual increase in this component will fall from 96 per cent to 27 per cent, although consumers will not feel better off as the energy price cap will stay at the same level. These prices are expected to start falling in the summer.

Headline inflation is still on course to halve by the end of the year, meeting the government’s target. In a statement, Jeremy Hunt, chancellor, said: “These figures reaffirm exactly why we must continue with our efforts to drive down inflation so we can ease pressure on families and businesses”.

In kneejerk response, sterling strengthened against the dollar, with the pound up 0.3% against the dollar at $1.24 in early trading but it has since faded back to unchanged as the dollar rose amid a broad-based pullback in risk.

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Exactly what we have been telling you: Russia is winning the battle of Ukraine

(Lauria/ConsortiumNews)

Leaks Spell The End For Ukraine (And Expose Western Disinformation)

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Joe Lauria via ConsortiumNews,com,

Leaked U.S. intelligence documents have exposed Western disinformation about Ukraine winning the war. Now the heavy fighting moves to Washington…

Aerial view of the Washington battleground. (Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz/Wikimedia Commons)

A Washington Post headline last week was a bombshell for someone who has only been reading about the Ukraine war in The Washington Post and other Western media: “U.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says.”

The story admits that Western media audiences have been misled about the course of the war, that essentially what mainstream media has been reporting about Ukraine has been a pack of lies: namely that Ukraine is winning the war and is poised to launch an offensive that will lead to a final victory.

Instead, the second paragraph of the piece makes clear the leaked documents show the long-planned Ukrainian offensive will fail miserably — “a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military.”

In other words, U.S. officials have been lying about the state of the war to the public and to reporters who have faithfully reported their every word without a hint of skepticism.

The Post said, as if it’s a bad thing, that the leaks will likely “embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.”

That has begun to happen. Writing in the uber-Establishment Foreign Affairs, former State Department official Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, write that “it is difficult to feel sanguine about where the war is headed.”

In “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table,” they say:

“The best path forward is a sequenced two-pronged strategy aimed at first bolstering Ukraine’s military capability and then, when the fighting season winds down late this year, ushering Moscow and Kyiv from the battlefield to the negotiating table.”

The article does not mention the leaks, though it was published after the disclosures made clear that the Ukrainian offensive, intended to break through Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, would fail.

Filled with the usual talk about Ukraine having better “operational skill” than Russia, and that the war will end in a “stalemate,” the piece represents an emerging strategy in the West: namely that before negotiating, Ukraine needs to launch its offensive to gain back some territory, “imposing heavy losses on Russia, foreclosing Moscow’s military options, and increasing its willingness to contemplate a diplomatic settlement.”

But that is a tall order. Moscow would be unlikely to negotiate at the end of the Ukrainian offensive, particularly as the article admits the “Russian military’s numerical superiority” and that Ukraine is “facing growing constraints on both its own manpower and help from abroad.”

Moscow was ready to cut a deal with Kiev one month after Russia’s intervention but the West, with its strategy of lengthening the war to weaken Russia, quashed it. Why would Moscow accept a deal now when Ukraine is at its weakest and Russia is poised to make significant gains on the battlefield?

The Foreign Affairs piece admits, “This diplomatic gambit may well fail. Even if Russia and Ukraine continue to take significant losses, one or both of them may prefer to keep fighting.”

“Come the end of this fighting season,” the article says, “the United States and Europe will also have good reason to abandon their stated policy of supporting Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes,’ as U.S. President Joe Biden has put it.”

And what comes next? “NATO allies would start a strategic dialogue with Russia on arms control and the broader European security architecture.”

Incredibly this is what Russia was asking for before its February 2022 intervention and it was rebuffed by NATO and the U.S. Now a Foreign Affairs article is recommending it.

Is there no better sign that Ukraine has lost this war?

Going Ahead With the Offensive Anyway

The strategy of Ukraine going ahead with an offensive it knows will achieve little is Kiev’s last gasp — unless delusional neocons continue to outmaneuver the realists in Washington.

Most importantly for the West, the failure of this last-gasp attempt would serve as a way for it to escape the disaster it has created for itself: namely, the backfiring of the economic war on Russia; the failure of the information war in the non-West and ultimately defeat on the battlefield in its proxy war.

Already in February, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is also pushing this strategy, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy that the game was up. This news was brought to us by the establishment Wall Street Journal.

And then ten days later U.S. intelligence provided a story to The New York Times that a pro-Ukraine “group,” and possibly the Ukrainian government itself, was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, a way of distancing the U.S. from Kiev as the exit ramp looms into sight.

Why Did the MSM Publish the Leaks?

Why did the Times, the Post and other establishment outlets publish stories about these leaks if they severely undermined their own credibility? There are three possibilities.

The first is simply competition. The Times or the Post may have gotten word that their rival had their hands on the leaks and did not want to be beat. There is almost nothing worse for an editor or reporter (in the petty world of journalism) then having to “match” a competitors’ story.

The second reason has to do with keeping up appearances. These leaks were eventually to come out somewhere and may not have been easily ignored. What would it have looked like if the big papers didn’t have it first?

More importantly, corporate journalism needs to keep up the pretense that it is actually doing journalism, i.e. that it will publish material from time to time that makes their governments look bad, and in this case, even themselves. They have to convince the public that they haven’t entirely given up on adversarial journalism if they are to survive.

It was the same when corporate outlets partnered with WikiLeaks in 2010 to publish leaks that exposed U.S. war crimes. But eventually the media turned on Assange and WikiLeaks, and fell into line with the state.

Why the Media Went After the Leaker

And that it is indeed what has happened here. After splashy stories about the leaks, the Times and the Post, teaming with Western intelligence-backed Bellingcat, turned their attention to finding the leaker, in what Elizabeth Vos in an article today on Consortium News argues makes corporate media the anti-WikiLeaks.

Rather than protecting the source of leaks, vital to the public, they hunted down the alleged leaker, 21-year old Air National Guardsman Jack Texiera, who was arrested by military-clad F.B.I. agents outside his Massachusetts home.

So what is the third reason why the major media published the leaks?

Very likely for the same reason they published the stories about Macron and Scholz telling Zelensky he’s lost the war, and that the Ukrainian government may have been responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage: to lay the ground work for the U.S. and its allies to pull the plug on their Ukrainian adventure by finally admitting Ukraine is losing.

Towards that end, there is speculation that Texiera did not act alone with the motive of impressing his teenage followers on the Discord chat forum, as the press has reported.

Former C.I.A. analyst Larry Johnson believes Texiera was set up, possibly by a senior officer. Johnson thinks this because among the documents Texiera allegedly leaked was one from the Central Intelligence Agency Operations Center, where Johnson used to work.

“CIA Operations Center produces two daily reports — one in the morning and one in the afternoon. It is not a ‘Community’ product, i.e., it is not distributed to the other intelligence agencies. It is an internal CIA document (of course, it is available to the Director of National Intelligence), ” Johnson wrote on his website Son of the New American Revolution.

Texiera was not in the C.I.A. so there is no way he’d have access to an Operations Center document, Johnson wrote. So how did he get his hands on it?

The implication is that Texiera may have been a patsy for someone within the realist wing of the U.S. military or intelligence establishment who opposes the neocons’ obsession with continuing the war at all costs.

The neocons are not going down without a fight. John Bolton, the former U.S. national security advisor and chief neocon, wrote a desperate piece in The Wall Street Journal last week, titled, “A New American Grand Strategy to Counter Russia and China.”

Bolton gets it that the world is changing, and not in America’s favor. So his response is not to reverse failed U.S. policy, for the U.S. to become part of the rest of the world rather than trying to dominate it, but to double down like a riverboat gambler. His solution: raise military spending to Reagan-era levels; resume underground nuclear bomb testing and taking “the North Atlantic Treaty Organization global, inviting Japan, Australia, Israel and others committed to NATO defense-spending targets to join.”

Bolton laughingly says the U.S. must “exclude” Moscow and Beijing from the Middle East, where both capitals are orchestrating the most dramatic diplomatic transformation in decades.

But Boltons saves his best laugh for Ukraine:

“After Ukraine wins its war with Russia, we must aim to split the Russia-China axis. Moscow’s defeat could unseat Mr. Putin’s regime. What comes next is a government of unknowable composition. New Russian leaders may or may not look to the West rather than Beijing, and might be so weak that the Russian Federation’s fragmentation, especially east of the Urals, isn’t inconceivable.”

Even if the ludicrous Bolton is dismissed, there’s still a major obstacle in the realists’ way: Biden’s re-election campaign. He says he’s going to announce soon. He’s already thrown his lot in with the neocons.

Is there any conceivable way that he could accept Ukraine losing this war, after all the blue and yellow flag-waving, without also losing the election?

The Biden team’s aim was to bleed Russia. But it is Ukraine that is hemorrhaging. Will reality at last overcome delusion in Washington?

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/

The Great COVID-19 Vaccine Bribe

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 11:25 PM

Authored by John Leake and Dr. Peter A. McCullough, MD via Courageous Discourse (emphasis ours),

Many readers of this Substack have doubtless wondered why their “health care providers”—i.e., doctors, repeatedly exhorted them to get the COVID-19 vaccines and boosters. In my extended social circle, I heard many reports of doctors being downright pushy about it—as though getting the COVID-19 vaccine was the single most pressing matter of medicine and health.

Even patients who’d recently recovered from COVID-19 were urged by their doctors to get the shots, as were patients who had bad reactions to the first injection.

For a long time, Dr. McCullough and I wondered if these doctors really were that brainwashed, or was there some other explanation for their zeal?

A few days ago, fellow Substack author, Tessa Lena (Tessa Fights Robots) published this document that was apparently circulated to doctors with patients insured by Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield Medicaid in the state of Kentucky.

The document raises a number of intriguing questions. I wonder: How many members might be registered in a given practice—that is, how many of those $125 bonuses per vaccinated member could a busy and efficient doctor with a good support staff receive?

Secondly, how many of these “COVID-19 Vaccine Provider Incentive Programs” were operating in the United States during 2021?

As we awakened souls try to figure out what’s going on in our bizarre world, it’s always useful to follow the money. It almost always leads to the explanation for any strange state of affairs that puzzles us.

END

Watch: Former Director Of National Intelligence Admits That Fauci Lied About Gain Of Function Research

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 09:35 AM

Only two years ago numerous alternative media sources including Zero Hedge were accused of spreading “conspiracy theories” and false information relating to the origins of the Covid-19 virus. Specifically, anyone who dared to suggest that the Level 4 virology lab in Wuhan, China (right across town from covid ground zero) might be the source of the outbreak, faced outright censorship on social media. The question many people should have been asking is: “Why?” – Why was the censorship so aggressive over clearly reasonable investigations into Wuhan lab operations?

Not only that, but why were the denials and spin from officials like Anthony Fauci so swift? Why not simply examine the evidence instead of dismissing it out of hand?

The real reason for the campaign to silence discussion on the Wuhan lab becomes evident as the connections between Fauci, the NIH and the lab are revealed. Elements of the US government including Fauci were in fact bankrolling gain of function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, and shielding it from government oversight. It is undeniable. If one accepts that the most likely source for the covid pandemic was the Wuhan laboratory then one must also accept that Fauci and his associates helped to create the pandemic.

Fauci lied about these connections incessantly under oath. Here is Anthony Fauci defending his initial lie to Congress using further lies during questioning by Sen. Rand Paul:

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch-former-director-national-intelligence-admits-fauci-lied-about-gain-function-research

Evidence of the research includes documents from the Department of Defense (obtained by Project Veritas) which confirm that EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in 2018 about gain of function research on bat borne coronaviruses under a proposal called Project Defuse. DARPA rejected the proposal on the grounds that it did not outline the risks of such experimentation and violated a moratorium on gain on function research. EcoHealth then went to Fauci and the NIH for funding, and Fauci was quick to support it using the labs in Wuhan.

Documents from the NIH itself also show that the group engaged in gain of function research at Wuhan focusing on developing coronaviruses that could be transferred from animals to humans. Fauci was aware of this research by at least 2021 (and was likely involved from the very beginning) and yet continued to lie about NIH involvement.

Meanwhile, the National Pulse – which has done multiple deep-dive investigations on the topic, uncovered in May of 2001 that the WIV scrubbed all mention of its partnership with the NIH from their website.

Scrutiny over Fauci’s disinformation campaign may be too little too late, and we have to wonder if the man will ever face consequences for his actions. However, the exposure of Fauci and the NIH is so overwhelming that the former Director of National Intelligence now admits that Fauci misled Congress and the American public.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch-former-director-national-intelligence-admits-fauci-lied-about-gain-function-research

Hopefully, this revelation will help to discourage people from blindly following the claims of government bureaucrats during the next manufactured global crisis.

GLOBAL ISSUES:

Blain: China Vs The USA – Does It Have To Be War?

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“One can’t afford to be emotional about China. One needs to be realistic.”

China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..

The global economy constantly evolves. The IMF’s latest global growth outlook released yesterday predicts China will contribute 22.6% of global growth through to 2028, while the US will be a laggardly 11.3%, behind India at 12.9%. Europe comes in too far down to even merit a mention in the press release, but the UK, France and Germany get to 5.5% – less than Indonesia, Russia and Brazil. (The rest of Europe is a rounding error.) It’s a clear sign the global economy is headed East and away from the Western Block. Not surprising – that’s where middle class consumer numbers are growing fastest!

The IMF outlook will be questioned by some, but the trend is undeniable. Meanwhile, this morning’s Chinese economic growth numbers were strong-ish, confirming consumers have embarked on a post Covid spending binge – up 10% (from a lockdown base last year) – but aren’t buying property. The market reacted badly to a slower than expected resumption in industrial production. Mixed economic numbers? How very Western of them… (And, yes, China also has banking problems and worries about debt..)

If there is one big theme in the current market it is the question: do these numbers highlight how we stand at the end of the dollar era?

It’s convenient to price everything in dollars – but it’s particularly positive for the nation that “owns” that currency. Markets have survived switches in the de-facto global currency many times, but not always the leading nation, (witness the bankruptcies of Spain and France in the 17th and 18th centuries). If de-dollarisation is really happening it raises a host of investment consequences regarding the implications of goods priced in other coin for the USA, plus potentially a Spanish like debt/inflation crisis! Western economic growth, domestic and international trade and geopolitics will be impacted. (No Sh*t Sherlock award to myself for that blindingly obvious observation…)

There are substantial propaganda-driven “sub-themes” to how a post US-led global economy develops. Many of these make arguments to fit narratives of China emerging as the leading financial power replacing the US which involve a whole lot of angst and conflict. For instance, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is either a perfectly sensible (but poorly executed) policy to build its’ future markets, or it’s a strategy to isolate the west and secure China’s supply chain. Is conflict inevitable or can trade triumph? We chose to read China’s new alliance of Poor/Global South nations that have come out against US hegemony re Ukraine as an attempt to encircle and diminish the West, not as genuine concern by these nations on the unreliability of the West – in which they have a point.

As always there is middle ground. At the core of the de-dollarisation debate is the role of China and the US as the dominant players. Which will be Rome and which is Carthage? Does it have to be resolved via conflict? 1989 suggests not.

I’ve read some great and some awful commentary on what de-dollarisation and the emergence of China means. Variously these mix up a whole slew of future outcomes.

To some it’s the end of the US age of empire and/or the beginning of a new cold war which will divide the planet. To win, China must destroy the West… (There goes my investment in Baillie Gifford’s China fund…)
To others it’s simply a weaker dollar policy which will stimulate the US and Western economies to reindustrialise and onshore their economies, leading to new global trade accommodations which will feature more debate about demographics than missile tech.
It spells a new period of global growth as Asia becomes the pre-eminent centre of wealth creation, and nothing much changes except the axis has moved… The US and the West will adapt.

The theme of a new cold war is dominant among the politically infected classes in the West. To them the USA has allowed itself to be usurped and overtaken by a seemingly more competent China which has aquired its lead illegally. (All is fair in love, geopolitics and cricket.) The case says the USA squandered its right to global leadership because it is no longer the Arsenal of Democracy – that it’s surrendered its position and industrial might to China. Therefore, the baton has passed to China, or the US’ prominent position needs to be recovered.

They also have a point. Diplomacy is economics by another means. The reality is wars and national primacy are not necessarily won by courage, the best weapons, or the smartest generals, but by the best logistics and the most efficient economies, which in today’s world means who can get war stocks to the front fastest, and sustain the frightening pace at which they are expended. At its bluntest, the question is the US so over-reliant on complex supply chains that feed back to China that it can no longer exercise real power and sustainable military might to the extent that US manufacturing won WW2?

Last week’s news China may have successfully tested new D27 hypersonic cruise missiles which not only threaten US carrier groups but also the Guam bomber base thousands of miles from Taiwan may be a game changer. Or they might not work. “Might not” is probably not a good bet for a task-force Admiral, but it’s worth remembering the West always grossly overestimated the abilities and numerical odds versus the Russians and Chinese during the cold war. (At the time of Cuban Crisis, the West believed there were hundreds of Russian missiles ready to fire, in reality it was a handful… and as the Russian recently showed when they “accidently” tried to shoot to down a RAF AWACS, the missile didn’t work.)

History records all empires decline and fall. All are repeatedly challenged. There are many things wrong with America, but the debate is complex. Fears on the sustainability of the dollar are fed by increasing doubts and fears about polarised politics; the devil or the deep-blue sea not-much-of-a-choice between a Biden or a Trump, the un-addressable horror of gun crime, the rise of hatred like QAnon, the apparent threat of a debt-ceiling default, or how sustainable the debt load is. China’s support cast of nations shows the global love affair with the USA has withered. Despite some apparent backsliding by the French, Europe remains closely aligned, but the poor south has largely nailed their colours behind China.

Can the US reindustrialise in time to counter China? In today’s world that means chips as much as black powder and pig iron. But it’s also about economic prosperity, demographics, and the distribution of national wealth and happiness. Expectations are critical. This is really a battle between autocracy with Chinese characteristics and capitalism. And I’m pretty sure both sides are bluffing. It’s very much in China’s interest to build as much wealth now – while it demographically still can – rather than fight expensive, destructive wars. It’s very much in the US interest to delay in the hope China gets old before it get’s rich.

The days of US hegemony look numbered… or are they? Maybe we should be asking the question from a different perspective. Not why the USA’s time in sun is over, but why will China will replace it?

Yet, a few weeks ago I was approached to find potential funders for a deal secured on Chinese assets. The story was a wealthy family relocating offshore and wishing to invest overseas. Alarm bells were ringing. Why ask me? Why not sell Chinese property in the Chinese market through Chinese brokers. The reality was immediately clear; there are plenty of Chinese billionaires, but they are paper billionaires with little prospect of exchanging their assets for ready cash unless sanctioned by the state. There are lots of Chinese who would love to relocate to the west. How many American billionaires are heading to China? China is wealthy in Chinese terms.

Yesterday in the FT, in an article examining recent bailouts of failing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, suggested the Chinese are propping up failing infrastructure builds to “pretend and extend” the endemic scandal and corruption that has accompanied them isn’t happening or leading to debt defaults. Or, as one infrastucture banker told me: “domestically the Chinese are good at building corruption payoffs into their projects to ensure they get built – albeit less well than they might have been constructed. In third world economies they are belatedly discovering corruption plays to different rules; no one is particularly surprised that projects don’t happen after the local kleptocrats have departed with the money.”

China is now the major lender across Asia, Africa and now Latin America. Some see that as transformational in terms of the power such debt-diplomacy has given China. Others see it as money squandered buying unreliable votes at the UN. Even though China generally insists on bilateral lending to maintain tight control, the amount of Chinese “rescue lending” has increased from minimal in 2010 to over 40% of total IMF lending.

And, China has its own internal financial problems to deal with. Being able to price its critical energy and raw material imports in Yuan will help, but not avoid its own debt concerns including the build-up and size of regional and property debt.

What makes economies successful? Is it just growth, wealth or is it more?

The West won the global wars of the 20th Century by mobilising and organising resources and industrial might to strangle and hammer the frankly disorganised economies of Germany (twice) and latterly Japan. China has demonstrated it has the industrial competency, capacity, and the ability (corruption notwithstanding) to deliver growth.

However, as many people have pointed out, what won the Cold War in 1989 wasn’t just the fact the Western Democracies had outcompeted Russia in every single regard and broken its’ economy, but that the people on the East side of the Iron Curtain preferred the freedoms offered by the market economies of the Free West to the repression of Communist States. (Gawd… that reads like it was written by a Trumptard – but I’m sure you get the point…)

Emperor Xi and his court may govern as an autocracy, but the iron rice-bowl compact with the people is critical. The people may not have real votes, but they have a… voice. That’s why the Covid Pandemic Restrictions were lifted so suddenly as the state feared Tiananmen scale protests earlier this year.

The Chinese leadership are not daft – they will continue to play clever; delivering jobs, infrastructure and wealth to the people, while expanding the reach of China in the global economy through debt, infrastructure and increasingly leadership of its own economically tied block of nations. Expensive wars or cutting off supplies of Western luxuries is all so unnecessary when the numbers seem headed their way, especially when social media and fake news is proving so effective at undermining western democracies.

Whatever happens, the global economy is changing, and that means investment opportunities need reassessed – constantly.

END

DR PANDA

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Did we shut society down with lockdowns & school & business closures with NO basis using flawed RT-PCR process that was over-cycled beyond a cut-point of 24 cycle count? YES! 99.9% positives (Bullard)

were NOT positive for infectious, pathological, culturable, viable virus that could transmit!!! near 100%! thus ASYMPTOMATIC transmission was DOA & I have said this, as has Bridle & McCullough; 99.9%

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 19

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32442256/

Key:

‘SARS-CoV-2 Vero cell infectivity was only observed for RT-PCR Ct < 24 and STT < 8 days. Infectivity of patients with Ct > 24 and duration of symptoms > 8 days may be low.’

‘These results demonstrate that infectivity (as defined by growth in cell culture) is significantly reduced when RT-PCR Ct values are > 24. For every 1-unit increase in Ct, the odds ratio for infectivity decreased by 32%. The high specificity of Ct and STT suggests that Ct values > 24, along with duration of symptoms > 8 days, may be used in combination to determine duration of infectivity in patients.’

Comparison of symptom onset to test (days) to the probability of successful cultivation on Vero cells (Probability Positive) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) E gene reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) value.

These results show that we closed society and shot schools for a lie! No one was likely ever ‘infectious’ with viable infectious lethal pathogen, NO one! The fear instilled in the population with asymptomatic spread was a lie (did not happen for this pathogen, was not a driver of this pandemic or any pandemic) and knowing we cycled up to 45 in Canada and the US and UK etc. We used a cut point of 40-45 cycles when at 24 cycles, that was the real limit. The issue was infectiousness and ability to transmit replication-competent pathogen (virus) and the fact is that above 24 cycles you could not.

It was a sham, a lie, a hoax!!

See the cut-point in Ontario by Public Health:

Dr. Byram Bridle: ‘We Need to Follow the Science of Our ‘Misinformation’ ‘Experts’ More Importantly, So Do They’

Excellent substack by Dr. Bridle, I am currently in British Columbia speaking on stage with him and Makis and Ardis and Mallard; support Byram!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 19

‘Over the past three years not one person who has accused me of disseminating mis/dis-information related to COVID-19 has ever offered me the courtesy of a conversation prior to doing so. Not one. That would be the respectful thing to do. It would be the professional thing to do. Historically, it has been a pillar of scientific ethics; to be willing to have open discussions with people that have differing viewpoints. Nor have any of these people been willing to discuss the scientific rationales underpinning my messages, even after they have publicly defamed me. Not a single person.

Nothing can help resolve disagreements or facilitate the ‘agree to disagree’ principle like a real-time conversation. Our own justice system would say that it is not acceptable to accuse another person in the absence of: 1. transparently presented evidence to back it up and, more importantly, 2. an opportunity for the accused to defend themselves.

COVID Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

I have tried to engage those who accuse me of disseminating mis/dis-information countless times. Many other people have tried to facilitate these conversations on my behalf. The universal response is that a public discussion of COVID-19 science with a so-called ‘science denier’ like myself would cause harm; specifically, it would provide a platform that could risk further spreading mis/dis-information.

A great example of this is Canada’s eminent leader in the field of ‘misinformation’ ‘science’, Prof. Timothy Caulfield at the University of Alberta, who recently received the prestigious Order of Canada for his efforts in rooting out misinformation about COVID-19. He has consistently refused to engage in discussions with experts that he has deemed to be spreaders of ‘misinformation’. This has included me. I learned from members of the public that Mr. Caulfield and his publicly funded group of ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ within ScienceUpFirst have been defaming me for a very long time. This surprised me because most of these people don’t know me (I certainly didn’t know them) and they never talked to me. Some have openly accused me of spreading disinformation, which implies ill-intent. But how can they know my intents when they don’t even know me on a personal level.

Since learning of this, I have invited Mr. Caulfield to have public chats about the science that he is accusing me of misunderstanding. After all, if public accusations are being made, it only seems fair to prove their validity in a public setting or resolve it publicly so some of the wrongful and massive harm can be undone. Private resolution of public harm doesn’t cut it.

A great example of Prof. Mr. Timothy Caulfield failing to engage in public discussions with those against whom he has made public accusations can be found in this article. Here are a couple of quotes from Prof. Mr. Caulfield taken from this story…

I have heard this over and over again for the past three years. Public discussions can apparently backfire by providing a platform for further spreading of ‘misinformation’ or appearing to legitimize scientific falsehoods. What can a scientist or medical professional do if this is true? Not much, to be honest.

However, this is not true. The problem for the ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ is that these excuses they use are pure misinformation that they have been spreading widely in public forums.

Because I like to genuinely follow the science, I decided to do a deep-dive into the world of ‘misinformation’ ‘science’. I am not an expert in this area, so I though it best to listen to the real experts; people such as Timothy Caulfield. What I discovered is a growing set of science-based principles that I could whole-heartedly embrace. They would genuinely be able to separate scientific truths from untruths. They are fabulous. But, this is the kicker. I learned that the people who are accusing me of disseminating ‘misinformation’ to the public are, hypocritically, are not following their own science! They are enthusiastic to ‘talk the talk’ when teaching people how to debunk untruths but then completely fail to ‘walk the walk’ when it comes to putting their own well-researched principles into practice. I have been so shocked by what I have learned that I feel it is essential that the whole world be made aware of the published peer-reviewed science that Prof. Caulfield indirectly taught me about.

Most importantly, Prof. Mr. Caulfield indirectly led me to a peer-reviewed paper published in a prestigious journal that covers the topic of ‘misinformation’. He has openly declared his love of this paper when teaching the masses about ideal, science-backed strategies to debunk scientific myths. He presented this in a talk given remotely to attendees at Columbia University in the USA early in the declared COVID-19 pandemic. You really should watch the entire video. Among what I am going to share with you here, it shows how Prof. Mr. Caulfield loves to defame entire groups of people and pull up pictures of people and literally label them and accuse them in the absence of any original data to back it up. Interestingly, if you watch the Q&A period at the end, you will see how much Prof. Mr. Caulfield offended some members of the audience through his love of labeling people with derogatory terms. He thought it was really funny and entertaining to repeatedly label people as ‘conspiracy theorists’. He seemed to be clueless to the fact that this term has substantial negative connotations among the black community in the USA (and likely many other places). He got his wrist slapped publicly and emphatically by two attendees. As per his Twitter feed, he has failed to be more sensitive as he suggested he would be when he was embarrassed after his talk.

Here is the paper that Prof. Mr. Caulfield, a world leader in tackling ‘misinformation’ loves…

Schmid, P., Betsch, C. Effective strategies for rebutting science denialism in public discussions. Nat Hum Behav 3, 931–939 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0632-4

Here he is presenting the paper and highlighting a key conclusion…

Note the title and note the second set of text that he expanded and underlined. Can you believe it?!? When teaching how to debunk ‘misinformation’ it is abundantly clear that there is NO HARM in rebutting ‘science denialists’ in public. In fact, providing facts about the topic in PUBLIC discussions “had positive effects”! This matches what was intuitively common sense to me.

So, why are all those who are publicly accusing experts holding alternative science-backed opinions about COVID-19 of disseminating misinformation but then refusing any public discussions with them?

Why aren’t the ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ following their own science?

I find this particularly disturbing because public discussions can only have positive effects even when interacting with science denialists. I and my like-minded colleagues are anything but science denialists. Unlike Caulfield, I am an actual scientist. My CV, publication record, and work history clearly demonstrate that I have genuine, deep and broad scientific expertise. I was sought after by national mainstream media outlets to address questions that they had early in the declared pandemic; prior to people defaming me in the absence of discussions. I was a recognized expert in vaccine science. Moreover, I am more than happy to engage in very professional, respectful, independently moderated public discussions. So, being anything but a science denier means the benefits to the public of public exchanges of ideas would only be that much greater, especially in the context of COVID-19 science for which there is a bewildering amount of information for the public to sort through.

Why should the world be very concerned that ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ are not following their own science?

See this article in the Toronto Star. Here is an answer from Prof. Mr. Caulfield to a question posed by an audience member who attended the presentation that was covered in this article…

Did you catch that?…

“But I absolutely think we need to think of [fining people for misinformation]” – Timothy Caulfield –

Folks, this hypocritical field of ‘misinformation’ ‘science’ that fails to follow its own data is becoming VERY dangerous. A big question now looms in front of us…

Who is going to be the arbiter of truth when public discussions among dissenting experts is not allowed?!?

I don’t care what your stance is on COVID-19 science and policies. Don’t think that the establishment of penalties for ‘misinformation’ can’t come knocking on your door in the context of any number of other topics.

So, I am going to reiterate something that I have been actively promoting to keep this dangerous field of ‘misinformation’ ‘science’ in check…

The golden rule for the new ‘science’ of ‘misinformation’:

“No person shall accuse another to have disseminated misinformation until a public, respectful, moderated debate has definitively proven that the accused is wrong.” Byram W. Bridle

And its corollary:

“No person can legitimately be accused of disseminating misinformation If the accuser is unwilling to debate them in public.” Byram W. Bridle

So, what needs to happen?

Members of the public need to encourage professionals (especially those that are publicly funded) who are accusing truth-tellers of spreading ‘misinformation’ to follow the science and engage in public discussions that can only yield positive effects for the public. In other words, public discussions among dissenting professionals captures the very essence of the Hippocratic oath. There can only be a benefit to the public with no risk of causing harm. The science proves this. Show the people who are claiming it is harmful to hold public discussions the research I have shared here and the links so they can hear and see it being supported by one of the world leaders in ‘misinformation’ ‘science’.

Now, knowing their science, I only see two ways that the ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ who have been publicly labeling people like me as spreaders of mis/dis-information can save face:

Put up! This means, step up to the table, follow your own science, bring your original data and let’s talk.
Shut up! But, only after publicly acknowledging that you were wrong.

I predict that many of my accusers will choose a third option, which should, by all rights, cause the public to lose faith in them: continue to disallow those they are accusing the courtesy of a public discussion. An inconvenient truth is that real-time conversations are the best way to establish expertise. In a public setting, a discussion between equally yoked experts will quickly turn into an incredibly productive sharing of information that helps hone the science and results in everybody learning something, including the experts. However, if unevenly yoked, the lesser expert will rapidly be exposed in such an exchange. Is the latter possibility the real reason why so many ‘misinformation’ ‘experts’ are failing to ‘walk the walk’ that their own scientific data promotes?

Getting back to Caulfield and all the accusations that he and his ScienceUpFirst organization have levied against me…

Prof. Caulfield, I am willing to follow your science. Will you? Are you willing to use your effective strategies to rebut my ‘science denialism’ in a public discussion?

If you fail to do so, your own field of ‘science’ will, by definition, have labeled you as both a hypocrite and coward. It would be a form of self-defamation. Such an egregious action could only be interpreted by the public as a self-admission of you having wrongfully labeled me.

If it helps, I am willing to entertain your wish and impose a fine upon myself should you be be able to publicly demonstrate that I am a spreader of ‘misinformation’. Let’s go back to the roots, when you first labeled me; lets publicly chat about the risk-benefit analysis of COVID-19 shots in children. If you can publicly demonstrate that my concerns have no substantial scientific basis or that my concerns about things like the following had no merit based on the weight of the evidence…

Myocarditis could potentially be linked to mRNA-based COVID-19 shots.
mRNA shots and their derivative (spike) get distributed widely throughout the body.
Spike proteins have multiple potential mechanisms of harm (i.e., toxicities) if they get distributed throughout the body either freely or expressed on cells, thereby rendering these cells targets of the ensuing immune response.

…then I will pay a $5,000 ‘fine’ to ScienceUpFirst.

Will you be the type of leader who not only talks the talk, but also walks the walk? A leader who fails to do so would be lacking the most important leadership quality and would risk having people lose faith in ‘misinformation’ ‘science’. I don’t want to see that happen, do you?

I am willing to subject myself to your own scientific principles.

What say you, Prof. Caulfield?’

COVID Chronicles

We Need to Follow the Science of Our ‘Misinformation’ ‘Experts’

Over the past three years not one person who has accused me of disseminating mis/dis-information related to COVID-19 has ever offered me the courtesy of a conversation prior to doing so. Not one. That would be the respectful thing to do. It would be the professional thing to do. Historically, it has been a pillar of scientific ethics; to be willing to h…

END

Buffalo’s NFL Damar HAMLIN says his doctors said it was commotio cordis & he will play again! I say NO, his risk is high, McCullough, Stock, Alexander (me) question; this was VACCINE-INDUCED mRNA CA

I wish Damar well but his doctors are lying, the league is lying, they are deceiving him; tell us his vaccine status given his public statements! he said he died on field & he did! Kirsch was right!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 18

VACCINE-INDUCED mRNA technology based cardiac arrest on the field.

He said he died on the field, and he did. Kirsch was right.

He should and must retire.

Damar must be respected and allowed privacy and it is tragic what he went through but he is high risk and this is likely vaccine-induced myocarditis that came alive due to surges in adrenaline that strained a scarred myocardium and we the public must be told the truth. He is talking publicly. It is imperative we are told the ‘full’ story. Where is his vaccine status or myocarditis status? I trust not one of those doctors, no one in this! IMO.

Huge respect to his family. The league must ensure that players exclude silent myocarditis before allowing players to take to the field or even spring training etc. pre-season. Same with pilots etc. e.g. high-sensitivity troponin testing, EKGs, D-DIMERS, gadolinium chest MRIs etc. It is imperative we exclude silent myocarditis especially in our girls, females too. This is NOT only an issue for males.

Is money driving this? Are the other players on the NFL TEAMS being put in harms way? Due to lies to protect the serious issues and potential risks from the COVID fraud deadly gene injection? Has big pharma and vaccine makers donated sufficient to buy the league’s silence? Has the US government e.g. HHS etc. given enough to the NFL to get it to play along?

What really is at stake here?

I feel terribly for Damar and wish him a long safe life but not in the league. His risk is too great, especially given how much CPR he needed. His heart is not the same anymore. No one should kid him. He is a good guy.

end

SLAY NEWS

U.S Food Supply Already Spiked with mRNA, Attorney Confirms A top American attorney has warned that his team has uncovered evidence to confirm that the U.S. food supply has already been spiked with mRNA technology.READ MORE

Alarmists Claim ‘Rice Is to Blame’ for ‘Global Warming,’ Push for Ban Climate alarmists are now claiming that “rice is to blame” for “global warming” and are pushing for a ban of the cereal grain food to meet the goals of the green agenda.READ MORE

Video of Chicago Woman Surrounded & Attacked by Violent Teen Mob Proves Lightfoot & Johnson Wrong A shocking video has emerged from the three nights of violent mayhem Chicago experienced over the weekend.READ MORE

Damar Hamlin Is Fully Cleared for Return to NFL Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin got a storybook ending to his tragic ordeal and has been cleared to return to the football field.READ MORE

Chicago Alderman Overrules Lori Lightfoot on Teen Rioters: ‘Some of Them Could Use a Good Whooping’Chicago’s failed Democrat Mayor Lori Lightfoot refused to say the word “mayhem” when asked about the rioting teenagers who took over the city for three nights last week.READ MORE

DeSantis Releases Bud Light Parody Commercial Featuring ‘Men Who Hacked the System’Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis released a parody of the old Bud Light “Real Men of Genius” commercials that takes swipes at the beermaker and transgender athletes like Lia Thomas.READ MORE

Hillary Clinton Tells Foreign Media: Trump ‘Cannot Be Re-Elected President’Twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has told a foreign media outlet that President Donald Trump “cannot… be re-elected” in 2024.READ MORE

New UN-Backed Legal Recommendations Normalize Sex with Children Experts and critics around the world are raising the alarm about new international legal recommendations that have received backing from the United Nations (UN) and would legalize sex between adults and children.READ MORE

Morgan Freeman Slams Black History Month as an ‘Insult’Hollywood veteran Morgan Freeman has blasted Black History Month in a rare new interview.READ MORE

Americans Paid $5 Trillion in Taxes to IRS Last Year Alone The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) raked in a record-breaking $5 trillion in taxes last year.READ MORE

Judge Fines Church $1.2 Million for Defying Lockdown Rules A judge has hit a California church with a staggering $1.2 million fine for holding service in defiance of the state’s draconian Covid lockdown.READ MORE

John Rich Deals Knockout Blow to ‘Divisive’ Bud Light: ‘I Don’t Know How They Ever Fix It or Even If It Is Fixable – This One Sticks’Country music star John Rich has sent a warning to Anheuser-Busch in response to the ongoing backlash against Bud Light’s Dylan Mulvaney marketing campaign.READ MORE

Country Star Riley Green Replaces Bud Light Lyrics from Hit Song during Concert, Crowd Goes Wild Country music star Riley Green dropped a reference to Bud Light in the lyrics of his hit song during a concert, causing the crowd to go wild in support of the move.READ MORE

The latest reports from Slay News

VACCINE IMPACT

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

En (La)Garde: ECB President Reveals What Happens Next

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 05:00 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday saw a major upside surprise in the US Empire PMI (+10 vs. -18 expectation), which seals a May 25bps Fed rate hike and opens the door to chatter of more.

Indeed, Fed-speak underlined the US economy is ‘doing just fine’ with rates at 5%. That’s the usual ‘small picture’ stuff of most market commentary.

However, ECB President Lagarde yesterday gave a very big picture speech (‘Central banks in a fragmenting world’) that dwelled on the usual subject matter found here.

Indeed, it was so significant that I am going to reprint almost all of it:

“The tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting faster. We are witnessing a fragmentation… into competing blocs, with each bloc trying to pull as much of the rest of the world closer to its respective strategic interests and shared values… All this could have far-reaching implications across many domains of policymaking…[and] for central banks….

In the time after the Cold War, the world benefited from a remarkably favourable geopolitical environment. Under the hegemonic leadership of the US, rules-based international institutions flourished, and global trade expanded. This led to a deepening of global value chains and, as China joined the world economy, a massive increase in the global labour supply. As a result, global supply became more elastic to changes in domestic demand, leading to a long period of relatively low and stable inflation. That in turn underpinned a policy framework in which independent central banks could focus on stabilising inflation by steering demand without having to pay too much attention to supply-side disruptions. But that period of relative stability may now be giving way to one of lasting instability resulting in lower growth, higher costs and more uncertain trade partnerships. Instead of more elastic global supply, we could face the risk of repeated supply shocks.

Recent events have laid bare the extent to which critical supplies depend on stable global conditions… In response, governments are legislating to increase supply security, notably through the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the strategic autonomy agenda in Europe. But that could, in turn, accelerate fragmentation as firms also adjust in anticipation. Indeed, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the share of global firms planning to regionalise their supply chain almost doubled –to around 45%– compared with a year earlier. This “new global map”… is likely to have first-order implications for central banks.

One recent study based on data since 1900 finds that geopolitical risks led to high inflation, lower economic activity and a fall in international trade… ECB analysis suggests similar outcomes may be expected for the future. If global value chains fragment along geopolitical lines, the increase in the global level of consumer prices could range between around 5% in the short run and roughly 1% in the long run.

These changes also suggest that a second shift in the central bank landscape is taking place: we may see the world becoming more multipolar… After 1945, the USD became firmly ensconced as the global reserve currency, and more recently, the euro has risen to second place. This had a range of –mostly beneficial– implications for central banks. For example, the ability of central banks to act as the “conductor of the international orchestra” as noted by Keynes…

But new trade patterns may have ramifications for payments and international currency reserves. In recent decades China has already increased over 130-fold its bilateral trade in goods with emerging markets and developing economies, with the country also becoming the world’s top exporter. And recent research indicates there is a significant correlation between a country’s trade with China and its holdings of CNY as reserves. New trade patterns may also lead to new alliances. One study finds that alliances can increase the share of a currency in the partner’s reserve holdings by roughly 30 percentage points. All this could create an opportunity for certain countries seeking to reduce their dependency on Western payment systems and currency frameworks…

Anecdotal evidence… suggests that some countries intend to increase their use of alternatives to major traditional currencies for invoicing international trade, such as CNY or INR. We are also seeing increased accumulation of gold as an alternative reserve asset, possibly driven by countries with closer geopolitical ties to China and Russia. There are also attempts to create alternatives to SWIFT… These developments do not point to any imminent loss of dominance for the USD or EUR… But they do suggest that international currency status should no longer be taken for granted.

We have clear examples of what not to do when faced with a sudden increase in volatility. In the 1970s, central banks… failed to provide an anchor of monetary stability and inflation expectations de-anchored – a mistake that should never be repeated for as long as central banks are independent and have clear price stability mandates. So, if faced with persistent supply shocks, independent central banks can and will go ahead with ensuring price stability. But this can be achieved at a lower cost if other policies are cooperative and help replenish supply capacity.

For example, if fiscal and structural policies focus on removing supply constraints created by the new geopolitics –such as securing resilient supply chains or diversifying energy production– we could then see a virtuous circle of lower volatility, lower inflation, higher investment, and higher growth. But if fiscal policy instead focuses mainly on supporting incomes to offset cost pressures… that will tend to raise inflation, increase borrowing costs and lower investment in new supply… Insofar as geopolitics leads to a fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs, this calls for greater policy cohesion…behind a strategic goal…

Achieving the right policy framework will not only determine how our economies fare at home, but also how they are viewed globally in a context of greater “system competition.”

…For Europe, long-delayed projects such as deepening and integrating our capital markets can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of domestic financial policy. To put it bluntly, we need to complete the European capital markets union. This will be pivotal in determining whether the euro remains among the leading global currencies or others take its place.

Central banks also have an important role to play here – even as protagonists. For example, the manner in which swap lines are used could influence the dynamics of major international currencies…. We have already seen the PBOC set up over 30 bilateral swap lines with other central banks to compensate for the lack of liquid financial markets in renminbi. How central banks navigate the digital era –such as innovating their payment systems and issuing digital currencies– will also be critical for which currencies ultimately rise and fall.

So, we need to be ready for the new reality that may well lie ahead. The time to think about how to respond to changing geopolitics is not when fragmentation is upon us, but before. Because, if I may paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, fragmentation can happen in two ways: gradually, and then suddenly. Central banks must provide for stability in an age that is anything but stable. And I have no doubt that central banks will measure up to the challenge.”

In short, *the ECB president* says we are seeing fragmentation into competing geopolitical blocs, which is structurally inflationary; rival FX architecture is emerging; trade invoicing and swap lines are key; Western fiscal policy must be expansionary on the supply side or into defense; monetary policy needs to work with it for “strategic goals”; central bank digital currency might be needed; and the bloc that does state capitalism/mercantilism best will win the “systemic competition.”

All of this was predicted here as far back as 2015-16, but ignored by markets focusing on what they thought mattered more – which was themselves. Now, En (La)Garde!

end

“It Wasn’t A Mistake Or Slip”: Lagarde Hints At Raising Central Bank Inflation Target

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 10:02 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The old Disraeli line is that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Like most market commentary, I focus on the former two (i.e., politics) and the latter, pointing out all the inconsistencies in the numbers on the screen that get markets so excited, whether that be US payrolls’ birth/death model, CPI’s hedonic regressions, or Chinese GDP’s internally inconsistent expectations-beating ‘magic’. However, yesterday we got a prime example of the Big Market Lie: talking only about statistics, as if nothing else more important is happening.

Monday’s policy speech from ECB President Lagarde, was called “astounding” by a national-security expert, and my team said sounded like she has been reading our research: given the ECB staff do read it, that wasn’t hyperbole. The second-most important central banker in the world behind Powell stated: we are seeing fragmentation into competing geopolitical blocs, which is structurally inflationary; rival FX architecture is emerging; trade invoicing and swap lines are key in that shift; Western fiscal policy must be expansionary on the supply side and into defence; monetary policy needs to act like it did in the 80s; yet it must also work with fiscal policy for “strategic goals” – and Lagarde added later in the day that once the 2% CPI target has been met, “discussions” can be had on changing it(!); central bank digital currency may be needed to deliver hypothecated fiscal spending and trade invoicing; in “systemic competition”, the bloc that does state capitalism/mercantilism best will fare better; and central banks’ role is at the heart of it. We are not talking 2% CPI, nor 2°C.

This has vast implications across every asset class, the economy, and the political economy. To have given this speech, Lagarde would have had to have cleared it with layers of stakeholders. It wasn’t a mistake or slip. It was a deliberate, establishment-approved declaration: we face an open-ended global political-economy competition with policy drift in just one direction, not a rate-hiking cycle, or a pause, and certainly not a pivot.

And how did the market react? It didn’t. How did the financial press covering every market cough, sneeze, and shill react? It didn’t. There were very few headlines, almost no commentary, and no analysis. The focus was on relatively irrelevant statistics like Chinese GDP, or subscriber numbers. In short, we got an orchestrated ostrich-like policy of denial.

Some might say that the magic of 0DTE options trading means nothing means anything anymore, and market volatility can keep going down, and stocks up, while real world volatility is exploding higher; but forever, and if rates keep rising?

Some might say there’s a Gramscian hegemony over intellectual debate in markets (“Don’t mention the war! Do mention the pivot!”). But that’s not true from recent coverage of the trends in geopolitics, which have even mentioned Gramsci, Kalecki, Polanyi.

Some might defend markets by noting the difficulty of talking political-economy rather than basis points or pips. As Taleb just tweeted on universities, applying here too: “The standard academic is selected to go very deeply and rigorously into the most shallow questions, and very shallowly and handwavingly into the most significant issues. Knowledge comes exclusively from the rare, very rare, tail exception.” So why listen to such market voices? At least ask them how they think their markets would trade if Lagarde is flagging a policy shift, rather than assuming she isn’t ‘because my market’.

Some might say “quirky” (I prefer “iconoclastic”) big picture narratives don’t matter because while this might all happen one day, in the meantime the adults have to make money. Taleb asks how that standard academic stance worked in the GFC or the worst bond performance in centuries in 2022 – and more examples will follow if Lagarde is a harbinger. Indeed, the CSIS think tank, in ‘It’s All about Networking: The Limits of Renminbi Internationalization’, stresses CNY cannot replace the USD in the global system, but bilateral trade settled in CNY reduces China’s reliance on the dollar, exert more influence over its trading partners, and mitigate risks from potential US financial sanctions. The latter implies the US would have to lean on real economy decoupling or non-financial weapons for pressure. That is deeply concerning, and I have expressed that here repeatedly of late, even if most markets won’t see it.

However, on the most profound level, I understand the lack of reaction. As Dostoyevsky put it: “Very little is required to destroy a person: one has only to convince him that the business he is engaged in is not necessary to anyone.”

On which, veteran market player Jeremy Grantham just broke Gramscian hegemony to tell an interviewer that the US financial sector is: “In a way, like a giant bloodsucker. We have more than doubled in size, and are sucking more than twice the blood out of the economy. And we do not generate any widgets. We do not generate any real increase in income. We are just a cost. Collectively, we fulfil a completely necessary service. But what we have done is created layers upon layers of more convoluted, expensive financial instruments. And that’s what makes all the profits for the financial industry. And it’s taken a lot of ingenuity and salesmanship to make this happen. A lot of lobbying in Congress, etc. And we have imposed on the rest of the economy the idea that banking and finance are utterly important at all times. If you do anything wrong to us, the entire economy will collapse in ragged disarray.”

Ask yourself, is this sustainable in a “systemic competition” between global blocs where the other side is using ‘common prosperity’ to co-opt its financial sector to accelerate the shift to supply-chain and production? Do we need a reallocation of resources from “convoluted, expensive financial instruments” to “widgets” too? The purveyors of said instruments, and their media, will say no, but the Pentagon, which had its eye on SVB, says yes – and now so does Lagarde. We only have Powell left to flip, which even markets might notice: Jackson Hole this year is going to be interesting.

But, until then, I expect that even as everything is about the big geopolitical picture, all we are going to hear are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Except here, where I will keep sharing headlines:

‘China criticizes US sanctions on fentanyl trade, say they ‘undermine’ Washington-Beijing relations: report’
‘China’s defence minister applauds Putin for ‘promoting world peace’ amid Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine’
‘Macron ‘working on secret plan’ with China to end Ukraine war’ – where a US hawk would say the problem is that cheese-selling surrender monkeys cannot surrender other people’s cheese;
‘NATO Seeks Deal With China Over ‘Responsible Use’ of Military AI’ – which shows Macron was correct to call the institution “braindead.”
‘Iran Invites Saudi King to Visit Amid Thaw in Ties’; as Iran chose Holocaust Memorial Day in Israel to say it will destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa if Israel attacks it; voices warn the window for Saudi-Israeli peace will close within the year; and China says it now wants to try its hand at the peace process there.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

CANADA

Canada hit with a massive strike in the public sector

(zerohedge)

Massive Strike Hits Canada As Inflation Discontent Spreads Around The World

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 11:50 AM

The mushroom cloud of central bank monetary destruction keeps growing, and is increasingly fueling discontent among workers whose standards of living are eroding along with the purchasing power of their wages.

Europe has already seen a wave of strikes aimed at securing inflation-offsetting pay raises. Now it’s Canada’s turn: At midnight, more than 155,000 Canadian federal government workers went on strike in what’s being described as the largest walkout against a single employer in the country’s history.

The strike was called by the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) union, which has been in negotiations for a new contract since 2021. This strike primarily encompasses two groups of federal employees: 120,000 at the Treasury Board and 35,000 at the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA).

Union reps for the Treasury Board employees have been asking for a 13.5% pay hike over three years. The CRA staffers want an immediate 9% raise and 20.5% over three years. The PSAC also wants the government to curtail contract work and make remote work more broadly and uniformly available.

The most hilarious PSAC demand? In what has to make many of its members groan with dread, the union is demanding more anti-racism training.

“We truly hoped we wouldn’t be forced to take strike action, but we’ve exhausted every other avenue to reach a fair contract,” said PSAC President Chris Aylward on Tuesday evening. The union has ordered members to show up at picket locations — or else be hit with union fines and the loss of strike pay and member privileges.

The strike makes for dicey politics for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government has increased the ranks of public employees by more than 33% since 2015. The labor-aligned New Democratic Party is a key backer of Trudeau’s ruling coalition, but disruption of services to Canadian citizens and markets is likely to fuel public ire.

At the same time, the strike also promises spillover effects across the Canadian economy, as it may inspire more strikes against private employers.

Since government workers are among the first to receive newly-created money — and thus, in accordance with the Cantillon effect, among the principal beneficiaries of central bank inflation — there’s something darkly amusing about seeing government staffers lead Canada’s rebellion against the ongoing loss of purchasing power.

Though “idle federal employees” may sound like a redundancy, the strike promises to affect individual Canadians in a variety of ways, to include tax refunds and filing guidance ahead of the May 1 deadline, and slowed or halted processing of applications for passports and veterans benefits.

About 47,000 of the employees included in the strike are considered “essential” to the safety or security of the public, and will report to work. The union requirement for members to show up at picket locations raises a challenge for the legions of employees who were hired mid-pandemic, have always worked remotely — often from rural locations — and have no office to picket.

The walkout will involve two-thirds of the Canadian Grain Commission’s employees, and a majority of grain-export inspectors. Watch for a ripple in markets for wheat and canola — two of Canada’s principal agricultural exports.

While the Bank of Canada helped set the stage for the inflation-fueled strike, a spokesman told Bloomberg that the strike won’t materially affect its operations. That is to say, the money printer will keep going brrrr.

**This** **article from the “69% government-funded” CBC ran during 2020’s shutdown-driven money-printing extravaganza**

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 11;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0961 DOWN.0014

USA/ YEN 134.59 UP 0.545 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2447 UP 0.0023

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3339 UP .0018 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.20 PTS OR 0.68%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 282.75 PTS OR 1.27%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .07% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 282.75 PTS OR 1.37 %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.20 PTS OR 0.68%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.07%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 52.07 PTS OR 0.18%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1990/00

silver:$25.11

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 101.57 UP 13 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s close.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.370% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.470 % DOWN 0 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.581 UP 8 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.345 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5025 UP 7 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0961 DOWN 0.0014 or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 134,59 UP 0.545 OR YEN DOWN 55 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2447 UP .0023 OR 23 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0018 OR 1 BASIS pts to 1.3339

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(6.8876)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8963

TURKISH LIRA: 19.40 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.470…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.628% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.820 UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2756% UP 8 in basis points.

USA dollar index, 101.57 UP .13 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 8.80 points or .11%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 15.51 PTS OR .10%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 17.49 PTS OR 0.23%

Spain IBEX UP 68,50 PTS OR .73%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 84.53 PTS OR 0.30%

WTI Oil price 79.74 12: EST

Brent Oil: 83.53. 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// REMAINS AT: 81.74/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 28//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5025 UP 7 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8795 UP 14 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0952 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2438 UP 0014 or 14 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8875% UP 10 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.77 UP 0.728 //YEN DOWN 73 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3461 UP .0070 CDN dollar, DOWN 70 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 79.16

Brent OIL: 83.07

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 3.602%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 3.791%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 7 PTS AT 4.265%

USA dollar index: 101.67 UP 22 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.40

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.89 DOWN 0 AND 45/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 79.22 PTS OR 0.23%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.08 PTS OR 0.024%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.39 DOWN 0.44 PTS (2.61)%

GLD: $185,36 DOWN 0.89 OR 0.48%

SLV/ $23.23 UP 0.08 OR 0.35%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Regional Banks Rip Higher As Inflation Spooks Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 04:01 PM

Hotter-than-expected UK CPI spooked markets overnight but a lack of any really scary items in bank earnings (and NFLX big bounce back) offered BTFDers lots of opportunities today.

Small Caps outperformed (small financials heavy) as The Dow lagged (not getting green at all). Nasdaq and the S&P managed to squeeze back into the green. With about 15mins to go though, a major selling wave hit, dragging Nasdaq and S&P red and erasing most of the Small Caps gains…

TICK shows the sudden late-day wave of selling…

Source: Bloomberg

However, despite the bounce back in stocks, JPMorgan traders warned:

if the MegaCaps fail to change this quarter’s earnings profile, e.g., shifting expectations for EPS growth of -7% to perhaps flat/up, then we may be poised for a pullback in markets. Despite the moves over the last month, it is almost unanimous among client conversations that they remain bearish. What would change that view? A Fed pause/pivot and positive EPS growth are the two variables most commonly listed.

0DTE dominated the action once again. Early gains supported by a non-stop positive delta flow (dominated by call-buying not put-selling) but around 1140ET, put-buying started to accelerate (not call-selling) but stocks kept going higher (amid a classic short squeeze) which around 1345ET sparked a big cover in puts and sent the index to the highs of the day…

Source: SpotGamma

‘Most Shorted’ dumped at the open then ramped all the way back…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX plunged to fresh lows not seen since Nov 2021 (16.17 intraday lows)…

And VIX has slid lower as VIX calls have exploded higher relative to puts…

Source: Bloomberg

Regional banks shares surged to two-week highs despite reporting widespread declines in loan demand, ongoing credit tightening, and modestly rising mortgage delinquency rates.

But putting that in context, don’t get too excited…

The Big-4 US Banks also rallied recently (after earnings) and as we note below – rather oddly – found support at the level of market cap of the Big-4 Chinese bank stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Debt Ceiling drama continues to ripple through market chatter as the T-Bill curve starts to misbehave, with a dramatic kink about a month out as anxiety over taxes (lower = sooner X-Date) get priced in…

In fact, as Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise noted this morning, that spread (which we track below using the generic 1m1m forward bill rate) isn’t completely accurate, because the dates of the May 16th (3.69%) and the June 13th (4.87%) bills don’t correspond precisely with those maturities.

But the sharp rise in the generic forward yield gives a pretty good indication of the kind of risk premium that’s been introduced into the bill curve – it’s the highest since January 2, 2001, when the Fed funds rate was 6.5%.

Source: Bloomberg

Short-end Treasuries underperformed again with 2Y yields up 7bps (and 30Y yields unch) today…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields have just extended higher after breaking above 4.00% on Friday, now back at their highest since just after the SVB blowout…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent the yield curve (2s10s) reeling back down to post-SVB inversion lows (still well off the record lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

May rate-hike odds topped 90% (for a 25bp hike) – new post-SVB highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended higher against its fiat friends but all the gains were during the Asia and European sessions (with USD selling during the US session).,,

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was puked overnight after the UK inflation data (amid considerable long liquidations) with Bitcoin plunging down towards $29,000 (hammered as it broke $30k)…

Source: Bloomberg

But Ethereum underperformed (after ripping higher relative to bitcoin since the ETH hard fork)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day lower, but well off its lows as Gold futures found support and bounced back above $2,000…

Oil prices also ended lower, with WTI breaking back below $80 overnight after the inflation print. A choppy session though amid mixed data from EIA on inventories…

Finally, the fecal matter is starting to strike the rotating object in the corporate bond market as the yield spread between IG bonds and Fed Funds has collapsed to near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

This, according to TD Securities, “heightened the risk of a correction in the US investment-grade corporate bond market.” And if IG bonds go, stocks won’t be standing around twiddling their thumbs. Although we do note that the pain in IG will likely be enough to force The Fed’s hand to pause or pivot sooner (but before you front-run it, The Fed won’t get there without the pain).

END

.i b Morning trading:

Early morning trading:

II) USA DATA//

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Subprime Used Car Dealership With Dozens Of Locations ‘Temporarily Closes’

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 09:05 PM

“We have temporarily closed our dealerships and are working on a solution to re-open them as soon as possible. But don’t worry. We aren’t going anywhere! US Auto’s affiliated loan servicing company (USASF Servicing LLC) is still open to accept your payments and assist in servicing your account. Please continue to make your payments as scheduled and reach out to us with any account questions,” a statement posted on the homepage of subprime car dealership US Auto Sales.

The Georgia-based dealership with more than two dozen locations in the Southeastern US is working to re-open operations.

US Auto Sales boasts on its website “no credit” is needed to obtain a vehicle.

Vehicle financing has become the most challenging in more than a decade. According to Bankrate data, the average rate for a used car has reached 7.39%, the highest level since 2009. High borrowing costs and sky-high used car prices have sparked an affordability crisis.

“US Auto Sales has regularly turned to bond markets to raise money from investors, packaging subprime auto loans into bonds known as securitizations for sale to institutional investors. It most recently sold a $233 million bond in June of last year,” Bloomberg said.

Meanwhile, Capital One Financial Corp. recently exited its lending business for car dealerships due to mounting macroeconomic headwinds.

Troubles for US Auto Sales come as the subprime auto loan market is sliding into turmoil as delinquencies hit a 13-year high.

Several months ago, we told readers a “perfect storm” was brewing in the auto market, outlining “More Americans Can’t Afford Their Car Payments Than During The Peak Of Financial Crisis“…

END

USA gas prices rise to 5 month highs

(Geiger/OilPrice.com)

US Gasoline Prices Rise To 5-Month High

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 06:55 AM

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

U.S. gasoline prices rose for the third week in a row, rising $.076 per gallon from a week ago to $3.65 per gallon yesterday, new GasBuddy data showed, reaching the highest level since November 2022.

The national average for a gallon of gasoline is $.221 cents more than it was a month ago, according to GasBuddy data.

“With oil prices touching their highest level of 2023 at nearly $83 per barrel, the national average price of gasoline has continued to inch higher, with 45 of the nation’s 50 states seeing prices rise over the last week. While the rising price of oil is likely the largest factor in rising gas prices, seasonal impacts continue to also exert pressure on prices,” GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said in a note on Monday.

“With the Northeast making the final step in the transition to summer gasoline this week, states in that region should expect a sharp rise in gasoline prices over the next week or two. Every other region has already seen the final step in the transition occur, so while other areas will see prices continue to slowly rise, the Northeast is likely to see a pretty hefty jump of 15-40 cents per gallon soon. Oil prices remain a wildcard, but we’re likely a few weeks away from seeing the national average peak. Whether it hits $4 per gallon or not is still perhaps a 50/50 chance.”

Crude oil prices hit their highest point all year last week – above the $80 threshold – in response to OPEC+’s agreement to cut an additional 1.66 million bpd off its production starting in May.

On top of that catalyst, U.S. gasoline demand was up 1.4% last week.

end

More job losses at these major operations

(zerohedge)

Disney, Meta Prepare To Eliminate Thousands Of More Jobs

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 08:54 AM

This year, 596 tech firms have laid off 171,308 workers. The list is anticipated to expand, with Meta Platforms Inc. initiating job cuts today and Walt Disney Co. preparing to reduce its workforce by thousands in the coming week.

According to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg, the Facebook parent company told managers they should prepare for job cuts on Wednesday. The memo states jobs across Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and Reality Labs will be affected.

The move to reduce headcount by at least 10,000 positions at the company was outlined by founder Mark Zuckerberg’s goal of greater efficiency earlier this year. Another round of job cuts is expected next month.

Meta already slashed its total workforce by 13%, or about 11,000 jobs, in November and has extended a hiring freeze through the first quarter.

Meanwhile, next week, Walt Disney is set to cut thousands of jobs, including 15% of its staff in the entertainment division, according to a separate Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the plans.

“The cuts will span TV, film, theme parks, and corporate teams, affecting every region where Disney operates,” said the people. They said affected workers would receive termination letters as early as next Monday.

Disney announced in February it planned to eliminate 7,000 positions from its 220,000 workforces, a move to save $5.5 billion per year. “Cuts are being carried out across the company,” the people said, adding cuts will even happen in the Disney Entertainment unit.

Disney’s old and then-new again CEO, Bob Iger, came out of retirement in November to lead the restructuring of Disney. He elevated key allies in the company, including Alan Bergman and Dana Walden, the co-chairmen of Disney Entertainment.

The pace of tech layoffs isn’t slowing down, according to job tracking website Layoffs.fyi.

Simply put, tech firms overhired during the pandemic and are currently bracing for a downturn.

end

Well that did not last long: California’s new dream for all home down payment program ran out of money in just 12 days

(EpochTimes)

California’s ‘Dream For All’ Home Down Payment Program Ran Out Of Money In 12 Days

TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 10:05 PM

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Demand for California’s new downpayment assistance program overwhelmed the system and depleted its $300 million budget in less than 12 days, with applications put on pause effective April 7, according to the housing finance agency.

The legislator responsible for proposing the program responded optimistically to the news.

“It is incredible and inspiring to see that the launch of the California Dream for All program has already been so successful,” Senate President Pro Tempore Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) said in a statement April 14. “The fact that it has helped more than 2,400 first-time homebuyers with their down payments in its first two weeks is terrific.

Designed to provide up to 20 percent of funding for low-income first-time home buyers, the “Dream for All” program was initiated with the passage of Assembly Bill 140 in 2021.

Resources are provided through the Dream for All Shared Appreciation Loan, in which the state provides a portion of the down payment in exchange for a share in the property.

The loan, in addition to a portion of the appreciated value of the home, will be repaid when the property is resold, according to the legislation.

The lowest eligible income for the program is $159,000 for several counties throughout the state, with San Franciscans and Silicon Valley residents in Santa Clara and San Mateo residents eligible if they make $300,000, the highest. Los Angeles’s limit is $180,000, and Orange County has the highest income limit in Southern California, at $230,000.

The original text written in 2021 proposed funding the project with $1 billion annually for 10 years. The proposal suggested the $10 billion invested would assist more than 150,000 Californians.

After legislative wrangling, the proposed amount later dropped to $500 million in 2022 and with the state facing a $25 billion budget deficit for the next fiscal year starting in July, Newsom decreased the allocation to $300 million for its introduction in 2023.

The funding gap leaves the program stalled awaiting further resources, according to legislators.

“While we are off to a strong start, we can’t truly make a difference in opening the doors to building generational wealth for Californians—especially those who historically have faced systemic barriers to homeownership—without sustained funding for the program,” Atkins said in the statement.

“Freight Recession” Highlighted By Largest Cargo Drop Since Pandemic

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 10:20 AM

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a “freight recession.”

“To start, we’re in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures,” President Shelley Simpson told investors in a post-earnings conference call.

Cargo demand has been softening as consumers spend more money on services than goods. Inflation and soaring credit card rates also hurt consumer demand. We recently asked: Is a second trucking bloodbath on the horizon?

According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February, the largest decline since Aug. 2012.

“Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage,” said Bob Costello, chief economist for the ATA.

“The freight market is one of the most volatile markets on the planet. Hot markets can turn ice cold in a flash, particularly after the federal government and central bankers flooded our economy with so much liquidity and then proceeded to institute the fastest monetary tightening cycle in history,” supply chain data firm FreightWaves said.

FreightWaves pointed out, “The freight market downturn is a thing of the past. The freight recession has come, and carriers, regardless of whether they operate in the contract or spot markets, are having to contend with it.”

FreightWaves’ data also shows spot rates of truck hauls have plunged over the last 12 months, tender volumes are sliding, and there’s a trucking overcapacity issue.

Despite all the gloom, Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley transportation equity analyst, recently told clients besides “all the bad headlines and mixed data points on macro, our latest quarterly Shipper Survey keeps showing signs of improvement under the surface.”

Well, that depends if the consumer can survive even more tightening of monetary conditions as the Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 25bps next month to around 500bps.

end

House Republicans To Propose Lifting Debt Limit By $1.5 Trillion, Or Until March 31 2024

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 12:16 PM

House Republicans will propose lifting the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion, or until March 31, 2024 – whichever comes first, according to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman.

Politico‘s Sarah Ferris says McCarthy won’t reveal more details beyond the text of the bill.

As Punchbowl reported earlier Tuesday;

Speaker Kevin McCarthy

For the first time in his career, McCarthy is charting the course for House Republicans in a high-stakes negotiation. The 58-year-old McCarthy — now the top Republican in the country — has been around these types of skirmishes for the better part of a dozen years, but he’s never called the shots.

McCarthy’s strategy is to try to pass something — anything — to show that he can move legislation through a fractious House. In McCarthy’s view, this will force Biden to negotiate and may shift the onus on Senate Democrats to pass their own bill.

Here are McCarthy’s challenges:

No. 1: McCarthy wants to pass a debt-limit bill with just one week of lead time. It won’t be easy, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. He’s letting conservatives fill this package up with whatever they want without going through committee markups. Just five Republican no votes will sink any bill, so there’s very little margin for error.

No. 2: What happens if McCarthy passes this bill? Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House are publicly insisting on a clean debt limit increase, and they think they can break McCarthy over this. Biden spoke to Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Tuesday and reiterated that none of them will negotiate on the debt limit.

Team McCarthy says they have no intention of ever passing a clean debt-limit increase. But that means that even after struggling to pass this bill, House GOP leaders could easily find they didn’t budge the Senate or White House one inch.

No. 3: The risk for McCarthy is that he’s advocating for all of these conservative policies, yet many of them will end up on the cutting room floor. This helps McCarthy with his right wing inside the conference, but potentially it’s a big effort with little real payoff.

No. 4: The calendar is a huge challenge for the speaker and the rest of Washington. It’s April 19. The latest estimates from Goldman Sachs and other analysts is that the U.S. government could reach the default deadline by mid-June. And a discharge petition may be all but useless at this point. There simply isn’t enough time. In fact, the only debt-limit related bill in committee right now repeals the debt limit entirely.

McCarthy holds a pretty bad hand here. The debt limit battlefield isn’t a good one for Republicans. Plus, he’s dealing with a conference that’s unusually interested in picking ideological fights they can’t win. McCarthy is doing what he must internally, but that doesn’t resolve his larger problems.

Developing…

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

This is good!! Gaetz demands to know how many USA troops are in Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Rep. Gaetz Resolution Would Make Biden Disclose Number Of US Troops In Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, APR 19, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on Monday introduced a resolution that would require President Biden to disclose the number of US troops inside Ukraine and share all documents outlining US military assistance for Kyiv with the House.

If the resolution is passed, it would require President Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to share the requested information within 14 days. The introduction comes after one of the documents allegedly leaked by Airman Jack Teixeira confirmed that US special operations forces are in Ukraine.

“The Biden Administration and other allied countries have been misleading the world on the state of the war in Ukraine. There must be total transparency from this administration to the American people when they are gambling war with a nuclear adversary by having special forces operating in Ukraine,” Gaetz said in a statement.

According to the document, 97 NATO special operations soldiers are in Ukraine, including 14 Americans. The leak confirmed an October 2022 report from The Intercept that said US special operations forces were deployed to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion.

The Intercept report did not say what the American special operators were doing inside Ukraine but said it was part of a broad covert operation that includes CIA personnel who are also on the ground.

The leaked document said there is a total of 29 Defense Department personnel inside Ukraine, including the special operations forces.

The total also includes members of the Marine Security Guard Security Augmentation Unit (MSAU), who are typically deployed for embassy security.

The total also includes the defense attaché and members of the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC). The Pentagon said in October 2022 that personnel under the defense attaché and ODC based at the US embassy in Kyiv are conducting “onsite” weapons inspections inside Ukraine.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report April 18, 2023 Issue 6971

Independent View of the News

ESMs opened higher on Sunday night (US time) and traded sideways, in a tight range, until a modest rally appeared when Europe opened. ESMs and stocks peaked at 3:37 ET. They then declined until 5:43 ET. ESMs and stocks returned to trading sideways, albeit with a slightly larger range.

ESMs and stocks broke down at 9:13 ET; but the dip was modest because the usual suspects wanted to be long for the expected rally after the NYSE opening. ESMs and stocks jumped higher when the NYSE opened; but the rally was measured and short-lived. ESMs and stocks then sank until 11:44 ET.

After a lackluster rally that ended at 13:17 ET, ESMs and stocks sank to new daily lows. After 14:00 ET, the usual suspects got busy and manipulated ESMs 25 handles higher by 15:30 ET. After a 5-handle retreat, someone manipulated ESMs again, driving them 11 handles higher into the close.

USMs declined sharply, falling as much as 1 3/32 at 11:00 ET. They bottom-bumped in a tight range until they fell to new lows near the NYSE close.

Morgan Stanley Strategist Sees US Stock Rally at Risk
    Share of stocks outperforming S&P 500 is at record low: Wilson
    Warns tech rally could fizzle out on inflation, rising yields
The rally in the S&P 500 has been driven by only a handful of stocks, putting the index at risk of fresh lows if bond yields rise, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson…
    The percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 on a three-month rolling basis is the lowest on record, Wilson said. That “is the market’s way of warning us we are far from out of the woods with this bear market,” the strategist — who was ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey for correctly predicting the stock slump — wrote in a note…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-sees-stock-073033442.html

Positive aspects of previous session
A late upward manipulation saved stocks
Gasoline declined sharply

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds fell sharply; Fangs declined modestly

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
The dollar rallied sharply after hitting a one-year low.

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4142.07
Previous session High/Low: 4151.72; 4123.18

@JonathanTurley: Ironically, DeSantis is not only raising the debt racked up by Disney but the fact that the company was allowed to value its own property. That could raise the same allegations used against Donald Trump where a company is accused of devaluing property for taxes while overvaluing for the purposes of bank loans. https://jonathanturley.org/2023/04/17/disneys-wild-ride-desantis-appointed-board-set-to-declare-disneys-unchecked-authority-null-and-void/
    Gov. DeSantis also noted that there is an inspector general investigation into possible fraud in this alleged self-dealing by Disney.  With four theme parks, two water parks, 25 hotels and about 80,000 employees, the state has a host of areas where “leveling the playing field” with other companies will cost Disney dearly. Indeed, DeSantis and the board just might enjoy this. It’s a fight they’ll likely win.  It’s a fight they’ll likely win legally and politically cannot lose.

Depositors pull nearly $60bn from three US banks as Apple raises pressure
Charles Schwab, State Street and M&T report outflows as savers hunt for better rates
https://www.ft.com/content/7bebe3d8-0b6f-417a-b531-6690c0f834b3

We forgot to change the economic data and earnings that appeared on Friday in our letter yesterday.

The odds of a 25bp rate hike on May 3 are now 91.0%; one month ago it was 20.7%.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Today –Traders want to be long for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and the start of Fangs reporting season. Netflix reports after the close. Much of the late rally was traders getting long for the expected Turnaround Tuesday and Netflix’s results plus blatant expiry-related manipulation.

Expected economic data: March Housing Starts 1.4m, Permits 1.45m; Fed Gov Bowman 13:00 ET

Expected earnings: JNJ 2.52, BAC .82, LMT 6.08, GS 8.23, NFLX 2.86, UAL -.73

ESMs are -2.25 and USMs are -4/32 at 20:45 ET.

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4033; 100-day MA: 3993; 150-day MA: 3926; 200-day MA: 3952
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,102; 100-day MA: 33,381; 150-day MA: 32,648; 200-day MA: 32,538

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3887.64 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4068.90 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4115.26 triggers a sell signal

Joe Biden Calls a Lid First Thing This Morning, Hasn’t Been Seen in Days Since Returning from Ireland   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/joe-biden-calls-a-lid-first-thing-this-morning-hasnt-been-seen-in-days-since-returning-from-ireland/

Congressional probe uncovers tie between Biden campaign, security letter dismissing Hunter laptop
Republicans now believe the letter that falsely portrayed laptop as disinformation was a consequential interference in the last presidential election… Aided by two Obama-era witnesses, congressional investigators led by House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan have developed the first evidence that a letter from security experts that falsely dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop as Russian disinformation during the 2020 election had ties to Joe Biden’s presidential campaign…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/moncongressional-probe-uncovers-tie-between-biden-campaign-security

GOP Rep @RepMTG: I just walked out of the Treasury after reviewing financial reports on Bidens and their web of LLC’s and wire transfers from MANY foreign countries that created a vast criminal enterprise bigger than anyone can comprehend. Whistleblowers can receive protection if they come forward now. Contact @GOPoversight now.

SIX MORE Biden family members benefitted from Hunter’s shady deals, Republicans say https://trib.al/qKs9e6K

@SaraCarterDC: Explosive scene at @JudiciaryGOP hearing on crime in NYC as victims scream out at Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff saying he’s politicizing, doesn’t care about victims in the city under D.A. Bragg’s soft on crime policies. The people were removed by police from the room.
https://twitter.com/SaraCarterDC/status/1647979755004653568

@greg_price11: Rep. Daniel Goldman tries to say the violent crime hearing is a “charade” and witness Madeline Brame, whose Army vet son was killed in NYC, tells him “Don’t insult my intelligence… This is why I walked away from the plantation of the Democratic Party.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1647994777714020353

Meet the victims, kin and advocates who testified before the Alvin Bragg House panel https://trib.al/rpVe9w9

Chicago’s mayor-elect warns against ‘demonizing’ rampaging teens after unrest https://trib.al/DmQoRFj

Chicago mayor-elect Brandon Johnson: ‘Not constructive to demonize youth starved of opportunities’ – “In no way do I condone the destructive activity we saw in the Loop and lakefront this weekend,” Johnson said in a statement. “It is unacceptable and has no place in our city. However, it is not constructive to demonize youth who have otherwise been starved of opportunities in their own communities… Our city must work together to create spaces for youth to gather safely and responsibly, under adult guidance and supervision, to ensure that every part of our city remains welcome for both residents and visitors. This is one aspect of my comprehensive approach to improve public safety and make Chicago livable for everyone.”   https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayor-elect-brandon-johnson-not-constructive-to-demonize-youth-starved-of-opportunities.amp

Brawl ensues at White Sox game, security hardly anywhere to be found
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/offbeat/brawl-ensues-at-white-sox-game-security-hardly-anywhere-to-be-found/ar-AA19WcEt

It’s good that Chicago will host the DNC…the rest of the nation should see the policies that made a mess of the city. – Wirepoints on NewsMax    https://wirepoints.org/its-good-that-chicago-will-host-the-dnc-the-rest-of-the-nation-should-see-the-policies-that-made-a-mess-of-the-city-wirepoints-on-newsmax/

Even the very liberal Chicago Tribune is outraged at Chicago’s violence problem and the mayor-elect’s absurd excuses for the violence.

Chicago Tribune Editorial Board: Brandon Johnson’s statement on Loop violence was as revealing as it was lamentable – Johnson and his fledgling transition team apparently saw the weekend violence downtown as a chance to offer a sociological admonishment to those who were frightened.
   No criticizing the kids, the mayor-elect says, even if you ran hard and fast at the sound of gunshots or decided to check out of your Loop hotel early, eat the bill and take your next spring break in a city other than Chicago. Mr. Mayor-elect, this is not going to work… Chicagoans were not “demonizing youth” but reacting to criminal behavior…if Americans start seeing your mayoral statements as progressive propaganda, they’ll stop listening to you or believing what you say… “FOX 32 Chicago decided that it was unsafe to keep our news crew on the scene.”  If hardened journalists feel unsafe in downtown Chicago, let alone tourists, that’s a serious issue… We are with Ald. Raymond Lopez, 15th, on this one: “Save the excuses & rationalization,” the alderman tweeted. “Unless you want this to be the norm in Chicago, hold them & their parents accountable.”…
   And if you were organizing the Democratic National Convention next year, you would have started to worry about what kind of pictures might emerge from the 2024 host city…
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-editorial-brandon-johnson-teen-violence-chicago-millennium-park-20230417-l7lpa3mfj5fnxmhvjiu725zbre-story.html

Babylon Bee: Chicago Mayor Warns That if Local Walmart Locations Close People Will Have Fewer Places to Shoplift   https://babylonbee.com/news/new-chicago-mayor-warns-that-if-local-walmart-locations-close-people-will-have-fewer-places-to-shoplift

@RNCResearch: Democrat Senator John Fetterman refuses to take questions as he returns to the Capitol for the first time since mid-February. (Adorned in a ragged hoodie and baggy gym shorts! What a joke!)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1648046348208332801

END

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING CHARLES NENNER

Dollar Finished – America in Danger – Charles Nenner

Dollar Finished – America in Danger – Charles Nenner

By Greg Hunter On April 18, 2023 In Political Analysis22 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning his war cycles are going up. Nenner also predicted a few years back that, at some point, the U.S. dollar cycle would be headed down—way down. The future is here, and Nenner explains, “We have known each other for many years, and I said the dollar is going to hold up, but not anymore, not anymore. It is really in trouble. There is actually no reason to be in the dollar. They especially underestimate this BRICS situation, and all the countries will be forming an anti-dollar. . . . Saudi Arabia is coming onboard, and that means the end of the dollar as the reserve currency.”

Nenner says his cycles see, “The dollar going down to 70 on the dollar index.” It’s a bit over 100 now, but it gets worse. Nenner points out, “I don’t want people to get depressed, but I am really worried. If the U.S. does not rule the world any more. . . . They think they can still tell the world what to do. Physically, the Americans are in danger, and they don’t seem to understand that. . . . The economy is really going to suffer. If the dollar goes really low, we could have a small bounce in the economy because it’s good for exports. That’s just a fooling bounce for people. Longer term, it’s just finished.”

Nenner says the signs are clear in the cycle that “America is at the end of empire. . . . The United States is going backwards, and it is not number one anymore.”

On the war cycle, Nenner has been forecasting a huge loss of life coming. Nenner is predicting “30% of the people on Earth will die in the next war cycle. . . . We are like at the end of civilization of the United States. It’s not that we are all going to drop dead, but it’s the end of civilization. The same issues that finished other countries like bad education, too many outstanding loans and people will become too lazy to really do hard work. That usually means the end of an empire.”

Nenner also talks about the top in the real estate market and why commercial and residential are on their way down for a long time. Nenner also talks about a “coming Great Depression style crash” in the no-so-distant future. Nenner also brought up that big banks are contacting him to consult on buying physical gold because “they want to survive what is coming.” Nenner says big banks are building their own vaults to make sure governments do not confiscate their yellow metal. Nenner gives a sign to look for when the economy is going into a recession that has a 100% track record.

Finally, Nenner predicts, “We are going to have a bad dollar. That usually means people are going to dump their securities. . . . If you have China and Russia dumping their U.S. bonds, you are going to have a problem. What I see on my cycle is . . . . The rates that went up stop in June. . . . I am getting very worried because there might be a run for safety.”

Nenner is worried about war, and not just in Ukraine. Nenner is looking at war in Taiwan, South Korea, and the Middle East with Iran. Nenner says, “I think you could have all these wars at the same time. . . . It’s endless possibilities. . . . I think they will all act at the same time. Wouldn’t you? You are waiting for the right moment, and if the United states get weaker and busy. . . . That’s the time to do whatever you want.”

Nenner points out, “Warren Buffett sold most of his Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing shares last week.”

There is much more in the 37- minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner. (4.18.23)

https://usawatchdog.com/dollar-finished-america-in-danger-charles-nenner/()

(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)

After the Interview:

Dollar Finished – America in Danger – Charles Nenner

There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com.

You can also sign up to be a subscriber for Nenner’s cutting edge cycle work with a free trial period by clicking here.

end

See you THURSDAY

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 142 NOTICES FOR 14200 OZ or 0.4416 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,408 contracts for 2,340,800 oz (72.808 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 344 for 1,720,000 oz

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

3 CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Crypto Crashes Amid Cascade Of Long Liquidations

Futures Slide After Hawkish Bullard Comments, Red Hot UK Inflation

Marked USD strength as yields lift; hot UK CPI; ASML lower, WAL surges post-earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

FX

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

GEOPOLITICS

CRYPTO

APAC TRADE

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

Russia Threatens To Give North Korea Advanced Weapons If Seoul Arms Ukraine

2e) JAPAN

3 CHINA /

Taiwan To Buy 400 US Anti-Ship Missiles, Announced As China Conducts “Major” Military Drills

“This Is Industrial Suicide”: Biden’s EV Plan Could Be Key To China’s Global Economic Dominance

‘Industrial Suicide’

Laugh out loud at false egos.

China reveals new details of Raytheon, Lockheed sanctions

Germany Closes Its Last Nuclear Power Plants – Electricity Bills To Spike Up To 45%

UK Inflation Unexpectedly Comes In Red Hot, Remains In The Double Digits

Leaks Spell The End For Ukraine (And Expose Western Disinformation)

Going Ahead With the Offensive Anyway

Why Did the MSM Publish the Leaks?

Why the Media Went After the Leaker

The Great COVID-19 Vaccine Bribe

Watch: Former Director Of National Intelligence Admits That Fauci Lied About Gain Of Function Research

Blain: China Vs The USA – Does It Have To Be War?

Did we shut society down with lockdowns & school & business closures with NO basis using flawed RT-PCR process that was over-cycled beyond a cut-point of 24 cycle count? YES! 99.9% positives (Bullard)

were NOT positive for infectious, pathological, culturable, viable virus that could transmit!!! near 100%! thus ASYMPTOMATIC transmission was DOA & I have said this, as has Bridle & McCullough; 99.9%

Dr. Byram Bridle: ‘We Need to Follow the Science of Our ‘Misinformation’ ‘Experts’ More Importantly, So Do They’

Excellent substack by Dr. Bridle, I am currently in British Columbia speaking on stage with him and Makis and Ardis and Mallard; support Byram!

The golden rule for the new ‘science’ of ‘misinformation’:

And its corollary:

So, what needs to happen?

Buffalo’s NFL Damar HAMLIN says his doctors said it was commotio cordis & he will play again! I say NO, his risk is high, McCullough, Stock, Alexander (me) question; this was VACCINE-INDUCED mRNA CA

I wish Damar well but his doctors are lying, the league is lying, they are deceiving him; tell us his vaccine status given his public statements! he said he died on field & he did! Kirsch was right!

En (La)Garde: ECB President Reveals What Happens Next

“It Wasn’t A Mistake Or Slip”: Lagarde Hints At Raising Central Bank Inflation Target

Massive Strike Hits Canada As Inflation Discontent Spreads Around The World

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 11;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

Regional Banks Rip Higher As Inflation Spooks Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion

Subprime Used Car Dealership With Dozens Of Locations ‘Temporarily Closes’

US Gasoline Prices Rise To 5-Month High

Disney, Meta Prepare To Eliminate Thousands Of More Jobs

California’s ‘Dream For All’ Home Down Payment Program Ran Out Of Money In 12 Days

“Freight Recession” Highlighted By Largest Cargo Drop Since Pandemic

House Republicans To Propose Lifting Debt Limit By $1.5 Trillion, Or Until March 31 2024

Rep. Gaetz Resolution Would Make Biden Disclose Number Of US Troops In Ukraine

Dollar Finished – America in Danger – Charles Nenner

Share this:

Related

One comment

Leave a reply to MASSIVE JOB LOSSES COMING TO DISNEY AND META – altnews.org Cancel reply

Donate

Archive

Spot Gold

Spot Silver