MAY 2/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $32.70 TO $2014.20
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP 34 CENTS AT $25.31
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2016.70
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.37
Bitcoin morning price:, $28,066 UP 62 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,790 UP 786 dollars
Platinum price closing $1066.80 DOWN $12.00
Palladium price; $1445.90 DOWN $59.80
“Our government… teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” … Louis D Brandeis (former Supreme Court Justice)
GO GATA!
TODAY WE HAD A GREAT DAY FOR GOLD AND SILVER. LET US SEE HOW THE WEEK PLAYS OUT!! THE BANKERS ARE HAVING A TOUGHER TIME MANIPULATING OUR TWO PRECIOUS METALS.
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,747.55 UP 62.34 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,747.55*) ALL TIME HIGH HIT TODAY
BRITISH GOLD: 1617.15 UP 30.24 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1833.01 UP 26.71 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,983.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/01/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 05/03/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 25
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
661 C JP MORGAN 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 19
880 C CITIGROUP 4
905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 42 42
MONTH TO DATE: 1,248
JPMorgan stopped 8/42 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 42 NOTICES FOR 4200 OZ or 0.1306 TONNES
total notices so far: 1248 contracts for 124800 oz (3.8818 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 65,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1687 for 8,435,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $32.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD//?? ( DOES NOT MAKE SENSE)
INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 37 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.264 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1542 CONTRACTS TO 141,795 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.01 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.01). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2310 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 653 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 190,000 OZ9E.FP.’S LOWER THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+ 0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK:THUS TOTAL OF 12.935 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –1 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 888 contracts: OR 4.440 MILLION OZ . (444 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.440 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 4.440 MILLION OZ/INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1542 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.01 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 653 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 1900,000 OZ (DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL STANDING 12.935 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2145 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5717 CONTRACTS TO 481,534 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 379 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 6096 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $8.85 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 17,700 OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $8.85 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6347 OI CONTRACTS (19.7418 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 630 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 481,534
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6347 CONTRACTS WITH 5717 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 630 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6347 CONTRACTS OR 19l7418 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (630 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (5717 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6347 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 17,700 OZ // NEW STANDING: 4.3763 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 3861 CONTRACTS OR 386100 OZ OR 12.009 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1930 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 12.009 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 12.009/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.338% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 12.009 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1542 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,795 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 653 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 653 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 653 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1542 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 653 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2145 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 10.975 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.01 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.24 POINTS OR 0.20% /The Nikkei closed UP 24,27 PTS OR 0.13% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.86 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9471 /Oil UP TO 75.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.11 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5717 CONTRACTS UP TO 481,534 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.85 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 630 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 630 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 630 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6347 CONTRACTS IN THAT 630 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5717 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.85. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (4.3763) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 4.3763 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $8.85) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6347 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 20.920 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 17,700 oz//NEW STANDING 4.3763 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.85
WE HAD +REMOVED 379 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5717 CONTRACTS OR 571,700 OZ OR 19.7418 TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 243,000 fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 183,027 poor
//MAY 2/ MAY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 21,798.378 OZ Brinks 678 kilobars |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 160,755.000 Oz JPM 5,000 kilobars |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 42 notice(s) 4200 OZ 0.1306 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 159 contracts 15900 oz 0.4945 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1248 notices 124,800 OZ 3.8818 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: nil oz
Adjustments;
ii) customer to dealer Brinks: 98.99 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 201 contracts having GAINED 28 contracts. We had 149 contracts filed
on MONDAY, so we gained 177 contracts or an additional 17,700 oz will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.
June GAINED 1211 contracts UP to 377,258 contracts.
July added its first 326 contracts to stand at 477 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 4014 contracts up to 63,019 contracts
We had 42 contracts filed for today representing 4200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 42 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1,248 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY 201 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 42 x 100 oz per contract equals 140,700 OZ OR 4.3763 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1248 x 100 oz)+201 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (42)x 100 oz} which equals 140,700 oz standing OR 4.3763 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 4.3763 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,713,349.037 OZ 53.29 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,359,418.061 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,358,365.175 (384.39 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,001,052.886 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,654,917 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 331.412 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 2//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 868,633.824 oz Brinks CNT Delaware Loomis manfra . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 13 CONTRACT(S) (65,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 900 contracts (4,500,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1687 Contracts (8,435,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139,607 million oz/270.024 million =51.70% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 34
i) Out of Brinks 32,319.580 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 160,279.880 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 8061.980 oz
iv) Out of Loomis: 68,016.684 oz
v) Out of Manfra: 599,955.800 oz
Total withdrawals; 868,633.824 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33.204 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 270.024 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 913 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 697 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 659 CONTRACTS FILED
ON FRIDAY, SO WE LOST 38 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 190,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY
ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS THESE GUYS WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON AS NO SILVER COULD BE FOUND OVER HERE..
.JUNE HAD A 17 CONTRACTS GAIN TO 871
JULY HAD A 1945 CONTRACT GAIN TO 120,704 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for 65,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 61,538 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 70,913 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1687 x 5,000 oz = 8,435,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(913) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 1687 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (913) – number of notices served upon today (13 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 12.935 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 924.83 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 468.264 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: Joe Biden Is Rewarding People With Bad Credit
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 01:30 PM
On May 1, new Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) rules went into effect that will allow borrowers with lower credit ratings to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. Meanwhile, borrowers with better credit ratings will pay higher fees to subsidize the program. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Real America with Dan Ball to talk about the new rules.
Experts say a person with a credit score over 680 could pay an extra $40 to $70 per month.
When the news came out, Peter Schiff tweeted, “Just when you thought the Joe Biden administration couldn’t get any dumber, it does this. It’s a perfect example of why government shouldn’t have any involvement in the housing market and why the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack should all be abolished.”
Dan said he’s about ready to buy a home and he’ll be punished if this plan goes through. Peter told Dan he didn’t have to get punished.
Just miss a few payments. Screw up your credit score. That will help your mortgage rate.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/peter-schiff-joe-biden-rewarding-people-bad-credit
Peter also noted that the plan will encourage homebuyers to make smaller down payments.
Normally, if you make a big downpayment, you get a better rate. But now, Biden wants the better rates to go to people that don’t make a big down payment. The worst part about this is that it’s going to further undermine the solvency of our banking system because banks are going to be encouraged and actually required to make more loans to riskier borrowers, which means more mortgages are going to end up in default.”
As Dan pointed out, this isn’t unlike the policies that helped blow up the subprime mortgage bubble leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.
During the Clinton and GW Bush administration, the government was pressuring banks to make loans to marginalized communities. But as Peter pointed out, banks are supposed to be colorblind.
They’re making loans based on the ability to repay. If somebody can repay the mortgage, they’re going to make it. So, if they’re denying mortgages, it’s not because they’re racist or sexist or homophobic or whatever. They’re denying the mortgage because the borrower probably can’t pay the money back.”
Peter said programs like this are really doing a disservice.
When the government encourages people who can’t afford houses to buy them anyway, they actually end up in over their heads, and they lose money because houses are very expensive. Take it from me; I own several. And you know, they’re money pits. You need money to afford to own a home. You can’t own a home when you’re broke.”
Looking at the broader Biden economy, Peter called it “a disaster” and said you can fit all of Biden’s economic accomplishments “on a chewing gum wrapper.”
In fact, you probably don’t even need all that paper, because I don’t even think he has any accomplishments to list. He’s just stumbled his way through the first couple of years in the White House and the economy is getting worse. Inflation is getting worse. All he’s done is worsen the problems that he inherited — not like everything was great when he stepped into office. But he’s made it worse.”
As just one example, Peter mentioned the surging deficits. The Biden administration ran a budget deficit of over $1 trillion in just the first six months of fiscal 2023. Meanwhile, the US continues to run a massive trade deficit.
Peter said Biden’s policies have complicated the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation. (Not that the Fed is doing a great job.)
It’s impossible to fight inflation when the Biden administration continues to create it by running massive deficits.”
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDSJOHN RUBINO
Fooling Us With Fake Stats: Household Net Worth
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 03:20 PM
Authored by John Rubino via Substack,
Towards the end of a financial bubble, the people who benefit from the bubble’s continuation — politicians hoping to be reelected, bankers hoping to complete the next deal, money managers talking their books — start touting “record household net worth” as a sign of societal health.
But they’re wrong, for the following reasons:
Deceptive leverage.
Pretend that you borrow $1 million to buy some JPMorgan Chase shares and that this transaction pushes the value of the stock higher. Without realizing it, you’ve just raised the net worth of millions of other JPMorgan Chase stockholders. Total household net worth — that is, assets minus liabilities —increases by vastly more than the money you borrowed. Society gets “richer” and the economy gets more robust and “safer” because of its growing net worth cushion.
So far so good. But since leverage works both ways, as soon as you turn around and sell your stock, thus pushing down the price, that incremental net worth vanishes, because it never really existed.
False comparison.
Most adults understand that their stocks, bonds, and houses fluctuate in price, rising in good times and falling in bad, while their mortgages, credit card debts, and auto loans only fall as they’re paid off. Which is to say instead of falling, these obligations mostly just rise as new debts are incurred and old debts are rolled over. A statistic derived by combining things that can evaporate (asset prices) and things that generally can’t (debt balances) does not measure what they say it does.
The takeaway: In a society of borrowers and speculators, asset values increase because of borrowing and speculation, which makes rising household net worth both a negative indicator of future growth and a sign of fragility rather than strength. But until people figure this out, it remains a great tool for convincing consumers that everything is fine when it’s actually not.
The following chart (courtesy of European money manager Gavekal Research) shows household net worth peaking just before the onset of recessions and/or brutal bear markets.
Notice how as the economy becomes more and more addicted to leverage, the volatility around the trend line increases, indicating that the next downturn — which we’ve already entered — will lop around 40% from household net worth via plunging asset prices.
And that’s assuming that the trendline itself is a real thing.
If the credit supercycle that began in the 1970s is now ending, we’re facing a generational, not a cyclical, mean reversion in which the other edge of the leverage sword cuts financial assets even more deeply.
Here’s how CNBC covered the subject last year, noting the increase in debt without exploring the link between debt and net worth:
Household wealth tops $150 trillion for the first time despite surge in debt
Americans got considerably richer as 2021 came to a close, thanks to a nice boost from their stock market holdings and an increase in real estate values, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.
Household net worth in the fourth quarter eclipsed $150 trillion for the first time, rising at a healthy 8.2% pace from the previous quarter for the fastest growth period since the first quarter of 2020. The increase came thanks to a combined $4 trillion rise in holdings from corporate equities and housing.
The total level — $150.29 trillion, to be exact — represented a 14.4% increase from a year ago. The boost came with U.S. economic growth running at its fastest pace since 1984 and the stock market enjoying another robust year.
The move came despite a rapid increase in debt at all levels.
Total nonfinancial debt came to $65.1 trillion, including $17.9 trillion at the household level, $18.5 trillion in the business world and $28.6 trillion from government. Each category saw substantial rises.
Household debt jumped at an 8% annual rate, owing to a 6.9% rise in consumer credit and an 8% surge in mortgages. Nonfinancial business debt increased at a 6.7% clip, while federal government debt leaped by 10.8% after declining 1.3% in the third quarter.
The key sentence: “The move came despite a rapid increase in debt at all levels.”
The CNBC writer is apparently bemused that net worth would rise along with debt as if the two are unrelated, when if fact rising debt is the source of rising net worth.
Americans did not get “considerably richer in 2021.” They got considerably more leveraged and fragile, and one step closer to the mother of all mean reversions.
end
JAMES RICKARDS
Rickards: Fed’s Looking In Wrong Direction
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 02:10 PM
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
What’s the situation with the economy? The short answer is not good. Here’s why…
There are literally hundreds of economic indicators either as hard data or sentiment surveys released daily. It’s impossible for any analyst to keep up with all of them.
But with computers, natural language processing and charts, it is possible to follow broad trends. The key for any good analyst is to settle on a subset of data that has the greatest predictive power and a long track record of getting things right.
It’s equally important to know whether indicators are leading, concurrent or lagging.
A lagging indicator may be a measure of how bad things are, but it comes too late to do anything to stop the bad turn. By the time you see it, a recession has already begun.
Concurrent indicators are useful as validation of what leading indicators have been saying, but they don’t put you ahead of the curve.
Clearly, the most valuable indicators are leading indicators — signals that arise six months and sometimes a full year before trouble arrives. Those are the ones to watch most carefully if you want to be prepared in advance.
The Fed Lags Behind
For reasons that are not clear, the Federal Reserve is obsessed with lagging indicators. This partly explains why they always get policy wrong. They tighten monetary policy after recessions have already begun, making the recession worse. They ease monetary policy when booms are underway, making asset bubbles bigger.
Just think of the stock market crash of 1929, the Tequila Crisis of 1994, the Russia-LTCM crisis of 1998, the dot-com collapse in 2000 and the mortgage bubble in 2007. You’ll find a poorly timed monetary policy in every instance.
The two biggest failures in the Fed reading of economic signals relate to unemployment and inflation. The Fed considers low unemployment to be a sign of economic strength and a source of inflation.
But unemployment is a lagging indicator. When businesses see declining sales, lower profits and bulging inventories, they will do everything possible to cut costs including canceling new orders, dumping goods, holding sales and closing offices.
It’s only when those measures fail to stop the bleeding that owners begin to fire people. By the time unemployment goes up, the recession has already started.
Don’t Look to Inflation for Answers
Inflation is another misleading signal. It’s meaningful on its own but it has no correlation to the business cycle. In the early 1960s, we had low inflation and strong growth. In the late 1970s, we had high inflation and weak growth. In the late 1990s, we had moderate inflation and strong growth. In the 2010s, we had low inflation and low growth.
Does anyone see a correlation there? There isn’t one. Growth and inflation are empirically uncorrelated. We can agree that inflation is bad (although deflation is just as bad in different ways). But inflation tells us nothing about the prospects for growth.
The idea that low unemployment leads to inflation (which is what links the Fed’s obsessions with unemployment and inflation) is an artifact of the discredited Phillips curve beloved by Bernanke and Yellen and adhered to by Powell on the bad advice of Fed economists.
Why this is so is a debate for another day. For now, it’s enough to know that the Fed clings to two indicators that have no predictive value. They are lagging indicators. This is why Fed policy always lags behind the economy and never leads it.
Look Ahead, Not Behind
Fine. But what are the leading indicators? Where can we look to see what’s coming?
Several powerful leading indicators are hiding in plain sight. They are easy to find and have excellent track records as predictive analytic tools. The problem is that relatively few analysts have heard of them, and even fewer know how to interpret them.
Here’s the short list and what they’re telling us right now:
An inverted Treasury yield curve. One type of yield curve is just a graph of yields on like instruments of different maturities. The U.S. Treasury securities market is the largest and most liquid in the world. Treasury securities have almost no credit risk, so the yields reflect the time value of money, inflation expectations, liquidity preferences and not much else.
A normal yield curve is upward sloping, which means that longer maturities carry higher yields. That makes sense. If I’m going to lend you money for 10 years, I probably want a higher interest rate than if I’m going to lend you money for six months.
Right now, the Treasury yield curve is steeply inverted. This means that longer maturities actually have lower yields than shorter maturities.
The 10-year Treasury note yields 3.57%, the 2-year Treasury note yields 4.14%, while the 3-month Treasury bill yields 5.03%. The last time the Treasury yield curve was this inverted was — you guessed it — in mid-2007 and early 2008, just ahead of the global financial crisis.
When investors accept lower yields on longer maturities, it means they expect yields to drop like a rock because of recession or worse. That 4.14% yield on the Treasury note looks weak compared with 5.03% on the 3-month bill.
But the 3-month bill matures in three months. That 4.14% yield on the 2-year will look rich if rates drop to 2.00% by late this year in the depths of a recession. That’s why investors like it. They see the recession coming.
The Eurodollar
An inverted Eurodollar futures curve. This is a bit esoteric, but it’s an even better predictive indicator than the Treasury yield curve. Eurodollar rates are basically short-term interest rates that big banks pay each other for dollars in unregulated markets.
Investors can buy futures contracts on these rates out to five years forward, although the one- to two-year contracts are the most actively traded. Basically, these are long-term bets on short-term rates.
These contracts are priced as a percentage of par or 100.00. The lower the price, the higher the yield (because the discount to 100.00 is greater, so the return is greater). Right now, the June 2023 Eurodollar futures contract is priced at 94.5850. The September contract is 94.9650. The December 2023 contract is priced at 95.3300.
Notice how the price goes up over time? That means markets are betting short-term interest rates are going lower. That’s another recessionary bet. Rates can be expected to come down in a recession, which means those futures contracts could go deep in the money.
This inverted yield curve was also last seen in 2007 and 2008 ahead of the crash.
More Recessionary Omens
Negative Swap Spreads. U.S. Treasury securities dealers buy long-term notes and finance them in overnight repo markets. They receive the fixed rate on the notes and pay the floating overnight rate on the repo.
This same trade can be done in derivative form using an interest rate swap agreement. In the swap, a dealer can receive a fixed rate from the counterparty and pay a floating rate to the same counterparty.
The swap is the same as owning the bond with two differences: There is no bond involved; it’s just a contract. And the parties take credit risk with the counterparty, whereas when you own a Treasury note there’s almost zero credit risk.
It follows that the fixed-rate payment on the swap should be slightly higher than the fixed-rate payment on the actual bond to account for the credit risk in the swap. That’s not the case today. Fixed rates on interest rate swaps are significantly lower than what an investor can receive on the actual Treasury note.
Is this because dealers trust bank credit more than U.S. Treasury credit? Not at all. It’s because the swap does not use up balance sheet capacity, while the actual Treasury note does. It’s also because Treasury notes are in short supply whereas swaps can be written in unlimited quantities.
Both conditions — balance sheet constraints and shortages of Treasury notes — are indicative of ultra-tight monetary conditions that lead to recessions.
There are other technical monetary indicators that point in the same direction. In addition, there’s a flood of hard data from non-monetary channels including declining world trade, declining industrial production, falling house prices, deteriorating consumer credit, declining real wages and many other indicators that all point to a recession.
So the recession is definitely coming and may already be here, according to the best predictive analytic data. The Fed will be the last to know because they’re looking in the rearview mirror at lagging indicators.
Get ready for the recession and don’t expect the Fed to help you see it coming.
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Fed is ready to buy defaulted Treasuries, so debt ceiling matters little
Crazy!! the plan is to buy defaulted treasuries if the debt ceiling is not advanced:
(Tankus/Politico)
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-05-02 04:19Section: Daily Dispatches
Biden Can Steamroll Republicans on the Debt Ceiling
By Nathan Tankus
Politico, Washington
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
The threat of a real debt ceiling crisis is growing rapidly. House Republicans are still pushing steep spending cuts that the White House won’t countenance, even as the Republicans remain deeply divided on a strategy. And we’re now as little as eight weeks away from the “X date” when the Treasury Department no longer has legal authorization to issue new securities and fill up its checking account.
It’s past time for the White House to consider their unilateral options for avoiding economic disaster more seriousl
Perhaps the most prominent proposal to sideline Congress calls for the Treasury to mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin and deposit it with the Federal Reserve, ensuring the government has plenty of money to pay its bills. So far Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has rejected the idea, warning that the Fed might not accept the coin and that, in her view, the central bank is not legally obligated to accept it.
There are other ideas floating around, but the one thing they all have in common is that they rely on the Federal Reserve’s cooperation and its willingness to continue acting as the government’s “fiscal agent” — essentially its banker, a role established by the Fed’s statute. …
Despite the Federal Reserve’s uneven record on transparency, it does eventually release transcripts of some of its most critical meetings in the years after they happen. And in an October 2013 conference call, Fed officials discussed a memo with options for how to respond to a government default.
On that call, Powell and most of his colleagues reluctantly endorsed buying defaulted Treasury securities — an unprecedented move to maintain financial stability — if a legislative debt ceiling solution did not come in time. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/19/powell-debt-ceiling-fed-00092522
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4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
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5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
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GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9471
SHANGHAI CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 39.24 PTS OR 0.20%
2. Nikkei closed UP 24.77 PTS OR 0.12%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.94 EURO FALLS TO 1.0969 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.416Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 137.35 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: XX// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.361***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.247*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.418…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.160
3j Gold at $1986.52 silver at: 24.72 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.75//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 137.35 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .416% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8972 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9843 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.554 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.787 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1348 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.47…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 8 BASIS PTS AT 3.8000
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2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Dip After Shock RBA Rate Hike As Fed Meeting Begins
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 08:24 AM
US index futures saw modest declines on Tuesday as investors braced for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting where policymakers are expected to deliver another rate increase, and then pause the hiking cycle. S&P 500 contracts slid 0.1% as of 8:00 a.m. ET after earlier swinging between small gains and losses. Nasdaq 100 futures traded little changed. Both benchmarks closed steady on Monday after data showed that US factory activity contracted for a sixth-straight month in April, the longest such stretch since 2009.
In premarket trading, Chegg fell over 40% after the online education company warned that ChatGPT was threatening growth of its homework-help services. Sprouts Farmers Market gained 8% after the grocer published better-than-expected results and guidance. Uber rallied as much as 11% after the ride-hailing firm reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates. Shares of peer Lyft also rose 2.9%. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- Arista Networks falls as much as 8.8% as analysts said the cloud networking company’s first-quarter results and forecast for the second-quarter were strong, but flagged a lack of visibility for the second half of the year, especially regarding the company’s “cloud titan” customers.
- LendingTree plunges 22% after the firm cut its revenue guidance for the full year, missing the average of analysts’ estimates.
- MGM Resorts dips 1%, set to slip from their highest level in more than a year, after the entertainment resort operator gave an update for the first quarter. Analysts noted that the company flagged a slightly sparser events calendar for its Las Vegas business.
- Oramed gained as much as 2% after US conservative media entrepreneur Ben Shapiro took a stake of more than 4% in the struggling Israeli pharma company and was named to its board.
- Penn Entertainment rises 3.8% after Roth MKM upgrades the casino and gaming company to buy from neutral, anticipating that better-than-expected property margins in the first quarter will prompt investors to reevaluate their 2023 projections.
- Pfizer gains as much as 2.8% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average of analysts’ estimates.
- SoFi Technologies Inc. dips 1.1% after Wedbush downgraded the online lender to neutral from outperform noting that there may be “downside risk to its gain on sale margins and fair value marks of its loan portfolio.”.
- Sprouts Farmers Market jumps as much as 8% after the grocery-store operator’s first-quarter results beat estimates, as did guidance for the second quarter. Analysts are positive on the company’s strategy and margin performance.
- Stag Industrial gains 7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said that the real estate investment trust will replace Axon Enterprise in the S&P MidCap 400, effective before the market opens on May 4.
Global sentiment was subdued ahead of tomorrow’s (final) 25bps rate hike by the Fed, especially after Australia unexpectedly hiked rates showing central banks remain in inflation-fighting mode, and renewing concerns about a deeper US economic slowdown.
JPMorgan strategists predicted stocks would remain under pressure for the rest of the year as monetary tightening cools the economy and earnings weaken after a strong first quarter. Still, a deal on Monday for JPMorgan to acquire the troubled First Republic Bank boosted optimism that the recent banking turmoil “could well be in the rear-view mirror,” said Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London (narrator: it’s not).
“This would be extremely welcome to jittery markets at a time when yields are rising again and recent economic data suggests that central bank may well have to continue to raise rates,” he said.
And while the rescue of First Republic Bank drew a line for now under US banking turbulence, investors now fear lending will be crimped, slowing an economy already under pressure from the most aggressive rate-hike campaign in decades. Euro-zone data reinforced these fears, showing banks had curbed lending more than anticipated.
“The banking crisis appears to have been dealt with, now it’s again all about inflation,” said Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank Limited. “Markets are wobbly because of the dichotomy between reasonably strong data and weak forward expectations, as there is concern over what may happen to corporate earnings due to the delayed effects of monetary policy.”
Attention now turns to the Fed, whose two-day policy meeting kicks off Tuesday. The central bank is expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point and potentially signal a willingness to hold off on further increases. Focus is also on policymakers in Washington after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government might run out of money to pay its bills as early as June. Investors will also watch US JOLTS job openings, factory and durable goods orders today. Earnings will also garner attention, with more than 35 S&P 500 firms slated to report Tuesday, including Starbucks and Uber Technologies. Apple Inc.’s report is due Thursday.
European stocks traded in the red after coming back from Monday’s holiday following a busy day of corporate earnings, economic data and central bank policy speculation. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% with real estate, energy and media the worst performing sectors. Banks have outperformed, led by HSBC after the UK lender announced a new $2 billion share buyback plan. Here are the biggest European movers:
- HSBC shares rise as much as 6.1% in London, the most since November, after the bank’s quarterly profit topped expectations on better trading revenue, lower costs and fewer provisions
- Persimmon gains as much as 6.5% alongside other UK homebuilders, boosted by a report in The Times that the UK government is working on a new policy to support first-time buyers
- Logitech gains as much as 7.2%, the most since October, after the Swiss manufacturer of computer peripherals beat analyst estimates in quarterly sales for the first time in a year
- Electrolux rises as much as 10% to later pare some gains after Bloomberg reported that China’s Midea Group is exploring a potential acquisition of the Swedish home appliance company
- Kambi shares gain as much as 11%, the most in nearly a year, after the Swedish online betting services firm announced a multi-year sportsbook deal with US gambling firm Bally’s
- BP drops as much as 5.6% after the energy giant slowed the pace of share buybacks after a sharp drop in quarterly profit; while earnings beat estimates, cash flow momentum is likely to weaken
- Pearson falls as much as 7.3% Chegg, an American firm providing online guidance for students preparing tests, saw shares plummeting in US postmarket trading after it warned of AI competition
- Evolution falls as much as 5.4% after the Swedish online gambling firm was downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi, which in note says there is now limited upside scope shares in the coming months
- Ams-OSRAM falls as much as 8.8% after the chipmaker’s 2Q sales forecast missed expectations, with a downturn in the semiconductor industry continuing to hit demand for its products
- Traton falls as much as 2.1%, reversing initial gains, after raised margin guidance from the German truckmaker failed to impress. After strong 1Q performance, “all eyes” are on 2H demand, Citi says
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were little changed, with investors digesting a slew of economic data from China for clues on the strength of the nation’s recovery, as most of the region’s markets resumed trading after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung in a narrow range, with declines in industrials and consumer staples moderating gains in utilities stocks. Hong Kong equities also fluctuated, while key gauges rose in South Korea and were mixed in Japan. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index wiped out an early gain of 2.1% as traders assessed China’s shrinking manufacturing activity. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index unexpectedly fell to 49.2 in April from 51.9 in March. Mainland markets are shut through Wednesday.
“Data brought back risks that China’s recovery is losing steam, and built the case for further policy support,” Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. On the other hand, “travel demand during the Golden Week has started on a positive note,” they said. Investors also awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The US central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates again.
Australian stocks fell after the country’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled further policy tightening ahead. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.9% to close at 7,267.40; the Aussie and bond yields surged. “A potential higher terminal rate is a risk and negative for equities,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s becoming a credibility issue now, these shocks to markets, and we need to add discount due to policy uncertainty,” he said. Read: RBA Shock Hike Spurs Strategist Clash About Global Rate Bets In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 12,037.81.
Japanese stocks ended mixed in thin trading as investors geared up for a US rate decision and a domestic holiday this week. The Topix Index fell 0.1% to end at 2,075.53, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 29,157.95. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index’s decline, decreasing 0.5%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 768 rose and 1,257 fell, while 135 were unchanged. “Although the yen has weakened after the BOJ decision and interest rates have fallen, making it easier to take risks,” the holiday-shortened week and the upcoming FOMC meeting make it hard to take a position, said Hiroshi Matsumoto, a senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. Japan’s financial markets will be closed Wednesday through Friday for holidays.
India’s benchmark stocks gauge gained for the eighth straight session, supported by foreign buying while banks led earnings outperformance. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.4% to 61,354.71 in Mumbai on Tuesday, its highest close since Dec. 20, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.5%. The Sensex is now trading at 14-day RSI of 71, a level that some traders see as overbought, for the first time since it peaked all-time high in early December. However, India VIX Index – a measure of volatility expectations – continues to trade near its lowest level in three years. Banks in India, including top lenders such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra have reported strong earnings for the March quarter amid sustained loan growth. Out of 21 Nifty companies, which have so far reported earnings, 11 have matched or exceeded average analyst expectations, while eight have trailed. Two companies didn’t have comparable estimates. Tata Steel will be releasing its numbers later Tuesday. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 2%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 16 rose, while 14 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the Australian dollar was the clear outperformer among the G-10s, jumping with local yields after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly resumed policy tightening. AUD/USA climbed as much as 1.3% to 0.6717 while Australia’s 3-year yield rose as much as 25bps to 3.26%, the highest since March. The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% while economists expected the rate to be left unchanged after data last week showed growth in consumer prices slowed more than expected in the first quarter. “The RBA is clearly still focused on inflation and feels it is still too high,” said Nick Twidale, chief executive Asia Pacific at FP Markets. “You’ve got to look to get long Aussie for the short to medium term, and it’s much more preferable to do it on the crosses than the dollar because we have so much uncertainty coming up with the Federal Reserve”
In rates, treasuries were richer across the curve, paring a portion of Monday’s sharp rate-lock driven selloff (courtesy of FB’s massive $8.5 billion new bond offering) as stock futures extended a retreat from Monday’s highs. During Asia session the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its benchmark rate by 25bp to 3.85%, saying inflation remained too high and further tightening may be required. US yields are richer by 1bp to 4bp across the curve with gains led by intermediates, tightening the 2s5s30s fly by 3bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.53%, lower by 4bps vs Monday’s close. Bund futures gapped lower but have pared some of that drop after the ECB bank lending survey and euro-area CPI data supported the view that the central bank will slow the pace of rate hikes this week. German 10-year yields are still up 5bps on the day. US session features 10am data raft including JOLTS job openings — which sparked gains last month — and factory orders.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.4% to trade near $75.40. Spot gold is flat around $1,981.
Bitcoin is modestly firmer though is yet to convincingly extend above the USD 28k mark and as such remains well within the parameters of recent action.
Now looking at the day ahead, in the US we will get the March JOLTS report, factory orders, and April total vehicle sales. Meanwhile in Europe the main datapoints are the UK April Nationwide house price index, German March retail sales, and a bevy of Italian releases including April CPI, budget balance, new car registrations, manufacturing PMI, and March PPI. Additionally, this morning we will learn the Eurozone April CPI and March M3 level. In terms of central banks, we will get the important Eurozone bank lending survey. On earnings we will hear from Pfizer, HSBC, AMD, Starbucks, BP, Uber, Marriott, and Ford amongst others.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,180.00
- MXAP little changed at 160.56
- MXAPJ little changed at 515.64
- Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,157.95
- Topix down 0.1% to 2,075.53
- Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 19,933.81
- Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,323.28
- Sensex up 0.5% to 61,424.73
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 7,267.40
- Kospi up 0.9% to 2,524.39
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 465.62
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.34%
- Euro little changed at $1.0972
- Brent Futures down 0.4% to $79.03/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,981.44
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.16
Top Overnight News
- Australia’s RBA catches markets off guard with a surprise 25bp rate hike to 3.85% (most assumed they would stay on hold for an extended period) as the central bank warns that further increases may be required as inflation is still too elevated. RTRS
- Europe’s CPI for April ran hot at +7% on the headline (up from +6.9% in Mar and higher than the Street’s +6.9% forecast) while core ticked down only slightly (+5.6%, inline with the Street but off just fractionally from +5.7% in March). BBG
- ECB’s latest bank lending survey reveals a “further substantial tightening in credit standards for loans to firms and for house purchases” (“pace of net tightening in credit standards remained at the highest level since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011”) while “demand for loans decreased strongly”. ECB
- BlackRock will begin selling failed banks’ municipal securities today, starting with an auction of about $50 million of taxable bonds, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
- The FDIC said in its report that switching to a “targeted coverage” approach, where business accounts get more coverage than the current cap, would be the best option for financial stability. Such a change, however, would require congressional action. Other options include maintaining coverage as is, or switching to cover all deposits, the FDIC said. BBG
- Morgan Stanley may axe about 3,000 jobs this quarter, people familiar said, roughly 5% of its workforce, excluding advisers and people supporting them in the wealth management business. The banking and trading group is expected to be hit hard. In other banking woes, hundreds of Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders sued the Swiss regulator over their $1.7 billion loss. BBG
- Janet Yellen warned the Treasury may run out of cash at the start of June and Joe Biden invited lawmakers to a May 9 meeting to discuss raising the debt ceiling. The market is unsure about the timing. T-bill yields rose yesterday and pricing shows growing concern about a default in June. But the highest yields are in late July and August, with rates now above 5%. BBG
- Investors warn of First Republic aftershocks. Attendees at Milken financial conference fear credit crunch and sharper slowdown after banking turmoil. “There is a little bit of a tendency to kind of breathe a sigh of relief on mornings like this,” David Hunt, chief executive of $1.2tn asset manager PGIM, told Milken attendees digesting the First Republic rescue. “Actually, we’re just starting the implications for the US economy.” FT
- JPMorgan was the only bank with the appetite to buy substantially all of First Republic at a competitive price, including mortgages that other banks didn’t want. That was a priority for the FDIC because it removed uncertainty over any assets left behind that it would have to sell. WSJ
- Chegg Inc. plummeted 42% after warning that the ChatGPT tool is threatening growth of its homework-help services, one of the most notable market reactions yet to signs that generative AI is upending industries.
- Banks in the euro zone curbed lending more than anticipated after borrowing costs jumped and turmoil gripped the financial sector, reinforcing calls for the European Central Bank to slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes.
- HSBC shares rose after the Asia- focused lender announced a fresh plan to return money to shareholders after reporting first-quarter results that beat estimates.
- Morgan Stanley is preparing a fresh round of job cuts amid a renewed focus on expenses as recession fears delay a rebound in dealmaking.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded with a slight positive bias as many of the regional participants returned to the market from the long weekend albeit with gains capped ahead of this week’s upcoming risk events. ASX 200 was pressured after the RBA surprised markets with a 25bps rate increase, while the central bank’s language remained hawkish with the Board expecting some further tightening of monetary policy will be needed. Nikkei 225 was indecisive and pulled back after briefly touching its highest level since January last year. Hang Seng initially surged on reopening from the holiday weekend and was led higher by strength in tech and casino stocks with the latter buoyed after a jump in Macau gaming revenue, although the index later faded most of its gains while the mainland remained shut for golden week.
Top Asian News
- Japanese, South Korean and Chinese finance ministers and central bank governors said they recognise the importance of strengthening economic and trade relations, while they fully support the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. However, they also noted that despite close economic relations, they have observed a recent slowdown in economic relations, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden and Philippines President Marcos affirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, while President Biden confirmed the US will send a presidential trade and investment mission to the Philippines, according to Reuters.
- RBA unexpectedly hiked the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.85% (exp. pause), while it stated that the Board expects some further tightening of monetary policy will be needed and remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that. RBA stated that inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7% is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range. Furthermore, it stated some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve.
European stocks mostly decline after a long weekend, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with traders keeping an eye on various upcoming risk events; US equity futures hold a downward bias, ES -0.1%. In earnings, HSBC +4.5% beat expectations while BP -4.5% missed on revenue and guided towards lower Q2 refining margins. Stateside, futures are modestly softer but have picked up off lows as the European session progresses with the focus remaining firmly on the Fed, debt ceiling and earnings.
Top European News
- ECB bank lending survey – Q1 2023; net 27% of EZ banks reported tightening of lending standards for companies, 38% reported fall in demand for credit from companies. Banks indicated that their credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises tightened further substantially in the first quarter of 2023. Firms’ net demand for loans fell strongly in the first quarter of 2023. The decline in net demand was stronger than expected by banks in the previous quarter and the strongest since the global financial crisis.. Click here for more detail & newsquawk analysis.
- UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly says a meeting with China’s Vice President Han Zheng is likely.
- Ukraine Latest: Russia Seen Buying Foreign Currency Reserves
- European Stocks Slip Amid Earnings, Data Before Rates Decisions
- HSBC Shares Rise After Lender Announces $2 Billion Share Buyback
- Vitol Says EU Gas Market to Stay Tight Until 2026 Supply Boost
FX
- Aussie outperforms as RBA hikes and delivers hawkish guidance against expectations for another pause, AUD/USD probes 0.6700 and the top end of 1.5 bn expiry options, AUD/NZD back above 1.0800 even though NZD/USD hovers just shy of 0.6200 ahead of jobs data.
- DXY pivots 102.000 awaiting US factory orders and JOLTS job openings.
- Euro fades from 1.1000+ vs Buck amidst decent expiries and as the ECB lending survey reveals substantially tighter credit conditions.
- Pound fails to retain 1.2500 handle against Dollar despite an upwardly revised final UK manufacturing PMI.
Fixed Income
- US Treasuries bounce from post-manufacturing ISM lows as attention turns to factory orders and JOLTs, T-note nearer upper end of 114-28+/114-15 band after decent block purchase at 114-24
- Bunds and Gilts remain weak in corrective trade after the long weekend, but off worst levels between 134.35-135.34 and 100.37-101.18 respective ranges
- EZ debt takes note of ECB BLS showing tighter credit standards, but UK bonds largely shrug off the upgrade to final manufacturing PMI.
- For reference, the morning’s ECB Bank Lending Survey saw a modest dovish adjustment to market pricing while the subsequent Flash HICP figures sparked little sustained reaction
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures see choppy trade amid a cautious market environment, whilst BP anticipates elevated oil prices due to OPEC+ production restrictions, strengthening Chinese demand, and tight supply/demand balances.
- Metals trade mixed, with spot gold lower in a tight range, and base metals initially gaining but now showing mixed performance as the DXY gains ground.
Geopolitics
- Japan scrambled a jet fighter following a suspected Chinese drone spotted between Yonaguni island and Taiwan on Tuesday, according to the Japanese Defence Ministry.
- Russian Defence Ministry says steps have been taken to speed up weapons production, via Tass.
US Event Calendar
- April Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.1m, prior 14.8m
- 10:00: March Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior -0.7%
- 10:00: March Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.3%
- 10:00: March Durable Goods Orders, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
- 10:00: March -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 10:00: March Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.4%
- 10:00: March Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
- 10:00: March JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.74m, prior 9.93m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
So welcome to a belated start to May in Europe after a surprisingly dull April. Indeed it’s quite ironic that a month which culminated in the second largest US bank failure in history was also the least volatile for global assets since the pre-pandemic days by at least one measure. In less than 2 months, SVB’s place as the second largest US bank failure was eclipsed yesterday as First Republic Bank was seized by the FDIC. Shortly thereafter a deal was brokered for JPM to buy the embattled regional lender. However, at the same time we’ve just closed an April where in our monthly performance review only 5 out of 38 assets in our study moved by more than 3% in either direction for the first time since pre-pandemic days and the VIX fell back to November 2021 levels mid-month. See Henry’s monthly performance review here for more on this.
Even with the FRC situation resolved (see more below), this week’s FOMC meeting – which concludes on Wednesday – will likely include continued discussion of the banking system going forward. However the details of that discussion may not be revealed until the minutes are released later this month. The main focus of the Fed tomorrow will be on whether they give any hints of forward guidance at all. Our base case is that the FOMC will maintain a hawkish bias and signal that a June hike is on the table, but with no pre-commitment to act on it. One important note will be how much Fed Chair Powell previews the very important Senior Loan Officer Survey that comes out next week. The Chair will be aware of the results. See our economists’ preview of the FOMC here.
The also very important European bank lending survey comes out this morning so that will play a part in Thursday’s ECB decision where our economists expect +25bps but with finely balanced risks versus a +50bps hike. In terms of the ECB hiking, the market sees it as a bit more clear cut as it prices in just over a 25bps hike (+28bps) and 50bps of hikes by the June meeting. We get the Eurozone CPI print today which may also have an influence, but the regional prints last week didn’t suggest any big hawkish surprises. The median Bloomberg estimate is a +0.7% m/m increase, after a 0.9% rise in March. See our economists’ preview of the ECB meeting here.
When that central bank excitement is over, attention will turn to another payrolls’ Friday. DB expects +150k with consensus at +180k and +236k last month. JOLTS today is arguably a better gauge of US labour market tightness but is always a month behind. Claims (Thursday) is one to watch given the recent flirtation with 18-month highs even if we’re still at historically low levels. Another notable piece of US data will come from productivity numbers on Thursday, as inflationary and wage pressures remain strong. Our economists expect +0.6% growth in productivity (v +1.7% in Q4) and a +3.4% reading for unit labour costs, an increase from +3.2% in Q4.
Additionally, the ISM services tomorrow is important following the marginal upside surprise in manufacturing yesterday. Our US economists expect a 52.1 reading for services tomorrow (51.2 last month). The US April ISM manufacturing reading yesterday was stronger than expected while remaining contractionary, coming in at 47.1 (46.8 expected). That was up 0.8pts from last month’s cycle lows, and is on the back of higher prices paid (53.2 vs 49.2 last month), higher new orders (45.7 vs 44.3 last month), and stronger employment. The employment portion of the survey rebounded into expansionary territory – albeit just at 50.2 – after being down at 46.9 in March. Elsewhere, US construction spending in March rose 0.3% m/m (0.1% expected).
Moving on to earnings, the key highlights of the week will continue to be tech earnings, including Apple on Thursday. The company will round out what has been a string of above-expectation results from the rest of the big tech pack last week. These boosted American large cap indices while small caps have struggled a bit more of late. The key earnings and data releases are in the day-by-day calendar at the end.
Now to a US session yesterday where virtually all of Europe was on holiday. The main story of the day, as referenced above, was First Republic officially being seized by regulators on Monday morning and then sold to JPMorgan. This followed speculation of assets sales last week as well as reports of multiple bidding banks materialising over the weekend. JPMorgan will now have acquired the two largest US bank failures of all-time, having acquired Washington Mutual back in 2008. JPM’s stock gained +2.14% yesterday, and was one of only 2 members in the KBW index (-1.78%) to finish higher on the day. The two worst performing stocks in the index were Citizens Financial (-6.85%) and PNC (-6.33%) who were among the known bidders for First Republic.
The weakness in overall bank shares followed news that the FDIC wanted to overhaul the deposit insurance system, citing new technological challenges and high concentrations of uninsured depositors in specific “pockets” of the banking system. The plan would see business accounts treated separately and have a higher coverage cap than individuals. This would require congressional approval. Questions still remain on how the Deposit Insurance Fund will be replenished and who should foot that bill, and so there is likely to be more response from the government in the coming weeks and months amid discussions of the impending debt ceiling deadline.
Outside of the First Republic news, the US equity session was fairly quiet with attention on the busy upcoming macro calendar. The S&P 500 traded in a 0.5% range and finished just -0.04% lower on the day with a good deal of dispersion under the surface. Exactly half of the 24 GICS level 2 industry groups in the index were higher on the day with little discernible factor bias as growth industries like biotech (+0.85%) and semiconductors (+1.52%) did well as did cyclicals such as transports (+1.50%). However some of the worst performers were also cyclicals such as energy (-1.26%), consumer retail (-1.93%), and autos (-0.98%).
With the First Republic deal taking a slice out of the overall risk premium built into markets, as well as pre-positioning ahead of the FOMC there was a big selloff in rates. This came despite a risk-on tone and was also potentially aided by a large day of corporate issuance in the US, as corporate blackout periods have concluded for some of the bigger issuers. Overall, 10yr US Treasury yields were +14.6bps higher at 3.56%, with 2yr yields +13.4bps higher at 4.14%. Fed futures are pricing in a near certainty of a hike in 2 days (95%) and a 1-in-5 chance of an additional hike in June, before 50bps of cuts come through by year-end.
There was a bit of a rally in treasuries in the last hour or so of trading following US Treasury Secretary Yellen telling US lawmakers that the US could hit the debt ceiling as early as June 1. 10yr yields came in about 3bps following the announcement. Markets are still pricing more risk later into the summer but the White House took a step toward coming to a resolution with Republicans in the House yesterday. President Biden has invited congressional leaders from both parties to the White House on May 9.
In Asia, as we go to print the RBA have surprised the market by hiking +25bps after many expected a continued pause. The surprise is reflected in 3yr yields rising +22bps after the decision. At this stage it looks like a hawkish hike. In terms of equities in the region the Nikkei 225 is trading largely flat, up a modest +0.06% ahead of the Japanese public holidays for the rest of the week. The Hang Seng is up +0.12%, and set to secure a fourth consecutive day of gains after Hong Kong GDP for Q1 grew 2.7% year-on-year (vs 0.5% expected). Onshore Chinese markets are closed and are set to reopen on Thursday after a four-day public holiday that started on Monday, whilst the Korean Kospi relatively outperformed up +0.62%. US equity futures are pretty flat along with Treasury yields.
Now looking at the day ahead, in the US we will get the March JOLTS report, factory orders, and April total vehicle sales. Meanwhile in Europe the main datapoints are the UK April Nationwide house price index, German March retail sales, and a bevy of Italian releases including April CPI, budget balance, new car registrations, manufacturing PMI, and March PPI. Additionally, this morning we will learn the Eurozone April CPI and March M3 level. In terms of central banks, we will get the important Eurozone bank lending survey. On earnings we will hear from Pfizer, HSBC, AMD, Starbucks, BP, Uber, Marriott, and Ford amongst others.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Pricing for 25bp lifts after the ECB BLS, ahead of US JOLTS & earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 06:21 AM
- European bourses mostly softer in catch-up trade from the long weekend, US futures similar with attention on the Fed, debt ceiling & earnings
- AUD outperforms after a RBA hike and hawkish guidance, DXY picking up above 102.00 after pivoting the figure while EUR & GBP fade
- EGBs softer in corrective post-ISM trade though off lows as the ECB BLS sparked a dovish reaction
- Subsequently, the EZ Flash HICP measure saw little sustained reaction with market pricing now implying an 80% chance of 25bp in May
- Crude benchmarks choppy with underlying pressure given the above market skew, metals mixed
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the debt ceiling could become binding as soon as June 1st; Biden has called a congressional leaders meeting for May 9th
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment. Earnings from AMD & Pfizer.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European stocks mostly decline after a long weekend, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with traders keeping an eye on various upcoming risk events; US equity futures hold a downward bias, ES -0.1%.
- In earnings, HSBC +4.5% beat expectations while BP -4.5% missed on revenue and guided towards lower Q2 refining margins.
- Stateside, futures are modestly softer but have picked up off lows as the European session progresses with the focus remaining firmly on the Fed, debt ceiling and earnings.
- Click here and here for the European earnings/updates, highlights include: BP, HSBC, ams Osram & more.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- Aussie outperforms as RBA hikes and delivers hawkish guidance against expectations for another pause, AUD/USD probes 0.6700 and the top end of 1.5 bn expiry options, AUD/NZD back above 1.0800 even though NZD/USD hovers just shy of 0.6200 ahead of jobs data.
- DXY pivots 102.000 awaiting US factory orders and JOLTS job openings.
- Euro fades from 1.1000+ vs Buck amidst decent expiries and as the ECB lending survey reveals substantially tighter credit conditions.
- Pound fails to retain 1.2500 handle against Dollar despite an upwardly revised final UK manufacturing PMI.
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
- US Treasuries bounce from post-manufacturing ISM lows as attention turns to factory orders and JOLTs, T-note nearer upper end of 114-28+/114-15 band after decent block purchase at 114-24
- Bunds and Gilts remain weak in corrective trade after the long weekend, but off worst levels between 134.35-135.34 and 100.37-101.18 respective ranges
- EZ debt takes note of ECB BLS showing tighter credit standards, but UK bonds largely shrug off the upgrade to final manufacturing PMI.
- For reference, the morning’s ECB Bank Lending Survey saw a modest dovish adjustment to market pricing while the subsequent Flash HICP figures sparked little sustained reaction
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures see choppy trade amid a cautious market environment, whilst BP anticipates elevated oil prices due to OPEC+ production restrictions, strengthening Chinese demand, and tight supply/demand balances.
- Metals trade mixed, with spot gold lower in a tight range, and base metals initially gaining but now showing mixed performance as the DXY gains ground.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB bank lending survey – Q1 2023; net 27% of EZ banks reported tightening of lending standards for companies, 38% reported fall in demand for credit from companies. Banks indicated that their credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises tightened further substantially in the first quarter of 2023. Firms’ net demand for loans fell strongly in the first quarter of 2023. The decline in net demand was stronger than expected by banks in the previous quarter and the strongest since the global financial crisis.. Click here for more detail & newsquawk analysis.
- UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly says a meeting with China’s Vice President Han Zheng is likely.
DATA RECAP
- EU HICP Flash YY (Apr) 7.0% vs. Exp. 7.0% (Prev. 6.9%); X Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash MM (Apr) 1.00% (Prev. 1.30%)
- EU HICP-X Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (Apr) 5.6% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.7%)
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI (Apr) 45.8 vs. Exp. 45.5 (Prev. 45.5)
- EU Loans to Non-Financials (Mar) 5.2% (Prev. 5.7%); Households (Mar) 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%)
- German Retail Sales MM Real (Mar) -2.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.3%); YY Real (Mar) -8.6% (Prev. -7.1%)
- Swiss Consumer Confidence (Q2) -13 (Prev. -9.0)
- UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 47.8 vs. Exp. 46.6 (Prev. 46.6)
- UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Apr) 8.8% (Prev. 8.9%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Biden is likely to nominate Fed Governor Jefferson to be Fed Vice Chair and World Bank official Kugler to be a Fed Governor, according to New York Times.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the debt ceiling could become binding as soon as June 1st and the actual date for the exhaustion of extraordinary measures could be a number of weeks later than the latest estimates, while she added the Treasury is suspending the issuance of state and local government series securities to avoid breaching the debt limit.
- US President Biden invited all four Congressional leaders to a meeting at the White House on May 9th. Subsequently, US House Speaker McCarthy has accepted an invitation to meet with Biden May 9th, via CNN’s Collins, “amid a new warning from the Treasury secretary that U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1.”
- US Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Democrat leader Jeffries said they do not have the luxury of waiting to June 1st to come together and called for Congress to pass a clean bill to avoid a default, according to Reuters. It was later reported that Schumer set in motion the process for a vote on a clean two-year debt limit suspension and the move leaves an opening for deficit-reduction talks once the debt ceiling is enacted.
- US House Speaker McCarthy said House Republicans did their job and passed a responsible bill that raises the debt ceiling, avoids a default and tackles reckless spending, while he added the Senate and the President need to get to work, and soon. There were also comments from Republican Senator Thune that the new June 1st ‘x-date’ warning makes talks between US President Biden and Republicans more urgent.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Japan scrambled a jet fighter following a suspected Chinese drone spotted between Yonaguni island and Taiwan on Tuesday, according to the Japanese Defence Ministry.
- Russian Defence Ministry says steps have been taken to speed up weapons production, via Tass.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is modestly firmer though is yet to convincingly extend above the USD 28k mark and as such remains well within the parameters of recent action.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded with a slight positive bias as many of the regional participants returned to the market from the long weekend albeit with gains capped ahead of this week’s upcoming risk events.
- ASX 200 was pressured after the RBA surprised markets with a 25bps rate increase, while the central bank’s language remained hawkish with the Board expecting some further tightening of monetary policy will be needed.
- Nikkei 225 was indecisive and pulled back after briefly touching its highest level since January last year.
- Hang Seng initially surged on reopening from the holiday weekend and was led higher by strength in tech and casino stocks with the latter buoyed after a jump in Macau gaming revenue, although the index later faded most of its gains while the mainland remained shut for golden week.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese, South Korean and Chinese finance ministers and central bank governors said they recognise the importance of strengthening economic and trade relations, while they fully support the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. However, they also noted that despite close economic relations, they have observed a recent slowdown in economic relations, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden and Philippines President Marcos affirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, while President Biden confirmed the US will send a presidential trade and investment mission to the Philippines, according to Reuters.
- RBA unexpectedly hiked the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.85% (exp. pause), while it stated that the Board expects some further tightening of monetary policy will be needed and remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that. RBA stated that inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7% is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range. Furthermore, it stated some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean CPI MM (Apr) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%); YY (Apr) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.2%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.24 POINTS OR 0.20% /The Nikkei closed UP 24,27 PTS OR 0.13% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.86 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9471 /Oil UP TO 75.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.11 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEALER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA///USA/PHILIPPINES
USA states that it will defend Philippine boats against Chinese threats in the South China Sea
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
US Says It Will Defend Philippine Boats Against Chinese Threats
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 07:20 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The State Department has reaffirmed that an attack on a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea will invoke the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty following a near miss between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels in the disputed waters.
The stand-off took place on April 23 when Manila says a larger Chinese ship blocked a Philippine patrol vessel after warning it to leave the area near Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine-controlled reef in the Spratly Islands also claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.Image via Philippine Coast Guard/AP
The incident received a lot of publicity as the Philippine coast guard had journalists onboard during the patrol, including reporters from The Associated Press. According to AP, the Chinese ship came within 120 to 150 feet of the Philippine vessel, which had to reverse its engines to avoid a collision.
For their part, Beijing blamed the Philippine vessel for the incident and said Manila staged the near collision for the press. “
“It needs to be stressed that the Philippine vessels intruded into the waters with press staff on board. This makes it clear that it was a premeditated provocation designed to initiate friction, blame it on China and hype up the incident,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
The State Department issued a statement that said the US “stands with The Philippines in the face of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Coast Guard’s continued infringement upon freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.”
The statement went on to vow that the US was willing to go to war with China if a Philippine vessel came under attack.
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack in the Pacific, which includes the South China Sea, on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including those of the Coast Guard, would invoke US mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” the statement said.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Do not believe a word he says
(zerohedge)
Kirby Claims Whopping 100,000+ Russian Casualties In Bakhmut Alone
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 06:20 PM
In a Monday press briefing National Security Council spokesman John Kirby issued a surprisingly high estimate of Russian casualties which he said took place since December fighting in the contested Donetsk city of Bakhmut.
He said Russian forces have suffered over 100,000 total casualties – including about 20,000 soldiers killed in combat and another 80,000 wounded.Image: AP/Shutterstock
He explained that these figures were based on “information and intelligence that we were able to corroborate over a period of of some time.”
While presenting these figures he said that the Russian advance in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces had “failed” – despite most international estimates currently indicating Russia holds 80-90% of Bakhmut at this point.
“Most of these efforts have stalled and failed,” Kirby said. “Russia has been unable to seize any real strategically significant territory. “
“The only area where Russia has made some incremental gains — and I want to focus on the word ‘incremental’ — is Bakhmut,” Kirby acknowledged. “That really holds, as we’ve said before, very little strategic value for Russia. The capture of Bakhmut would absolutely not alter the course of the war in Russia’s favor, and Ukraine’s defenses in the areas surrounding Bakhmut still remain strong.”
He also said that some half of the 20,000 Russians killed there had been fighting on behalf of Wagner.
“Folks he [Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin] went knocking around on the doors in prison cells throughout Russia to throw human flesh at this fight,” Kirby said of a months-long recruitment drive by Wagner, controversially focused on Russian prisons.
But when pressed, the NSC spokesman refused to give casualty numbers for the Ukrainian side. “I’m not ever going to put anything out in the public domain that’s going to make their job harder,” Kirby said. “They are the victims here. Russia is the aggressor.”
While very clearly Bakhmut has for months been a tragic “meat-grinder” for both sides, the US could be offering this staggering and large Russian casualty count of 100,000 in order to establish a ‘pyrrhic victory’ narrative. Kirby admitted the Russians are winning in Bakhmut, but wants to paint a picture of it losing the overall conflict given the massive cost and sacrifice for Bakhmut.
But to keep this figure in perspective, which to most people is going to seem an extremely high estimate (and thus dubious), the total official American casualties in Vietnam were nearly 60,000 killed in action, and over 150,000 wounded – and that was after a decade of war.
end
Greenwald is more accurate
(zerohedge)
Greenwald: Ukraine’s Conscript Army Being Used By West As “Cannon Fodder”
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 08:20 PM
Journalist Glenn Greenwald issued some blunt and apt statements on the nature of the Ukraine war and Washington’s constant stoking of conflict, as opposed to US officials exploring serious avenues for peace. Below is his epic Twitter thread Monday in response to once again being accused of supposedly “aping” pro-Kremlin talking points [emphasis ours]…
No, the biggest victims of the war in Ukraine are the tens of thousands of Ukrainian men forced against their will as conscripts to serve as cannon fodder so that empty and weak Western losers like you can feel a sense of purpose and strength as you cheer from a safe distance.
Whenever it comes to wars people get to cheer without fighting in them — call it the Bill Kristol Syndrome — you can never underestimate the ample psychological benefits they get from feeling strong and tough but never getting near the fight.
Adam Smith [in The Wealth of Nations] warned of it in 1776:
For those who love to cheer the war in Ukraine but seem to have no idea what it’s actually about, here’s just the latest instance in which Zelensky had to increase punishments for desertion because of how unwilling much of the conscript army is to fight:
Zelensky knew there were way too few Ukrainian men willing to fight the Russian Army. That’s why he begged Westerners who “support Ukraine” to come help fight Russia.
But so few did, so they closed the border and used unwilling conscripts…
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Russia responds
Kremlin Mocks & Dismisses White House’s High Russian Casualty Count
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 09:50 AM
The Kremlin has reacted to a Monday briefing by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby wherein he issued a surprisingly high estimate of Russian casualties which he said took place since December in the contested Donetsk city of Bakhmut. He said Russian forces have suffered over 100,000 total casualties – including about 20,000 soldiers killed in combat and another 80,000 wounded.
In response, Dmitry Peskov mocked and dismissed these figures on Tuesday, saying the White House is pulling the numbers out of a hat, and further stressed the US cannot possibly know any of this.Image via Reuters
“Pulling out figures out of a hat, Washington does not have the opportunity to give any correct figures, they do not have such data, this is how it should be treated” Peskov said, as cited in national media.
“It is necessary to focus only on those figures that are published in a timely manner by the Russian Defense Ministry,” he added.
Interestingly, when in the Monday press briefing Kirby was asked the NSC spokesman refused to give casualty numbers for the Ukrainian side. “I’m not ever going to put anything out in the public domain that’s going to make their job harder,” Kirby said. “They are the victims here. Russia is the aggressor.”
As we explained previously, while very clearly Bakhmut has for months been in truth a “meat-grinder” for both sides, the US is likely offering this staggering and large Russian casualty count of 100,000 in order to establish a ‘pyrrhic victory’ narrative. Kirby admitted the Russians are winning in Bakhmut, but wants to paint a picture of it losing the overall conflict given the massive cost and sacrifice for Bakhmut.
The independent geopolitical analysis site Moon of Alabama wrote days ago:
Bakhmut/Aryomovsk is to 90% under Russian control and the rest will be captured during the next few days. Ukrainian losses in the city must have been huge. The Ukrainian troops who try to escape from the city immediately come under artillery fire. The latest daily Russian clobber report counts 575 ‘enemy losses’ in Bakhmut over the last 24 hours for a total of 815 along the whole frontline. This is the largest number reported over the last two months.
Meanwhile, a Tuesday briefing by Russia’s defense chief has painted a grim picture for the Ukrainian side. According to his words: “Russian forces have already received sufficient ammunition for effectively inflicting damage on the enemy by firepower and the domestic defense industry generally meets the requirements of the Army and the Navy, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told a conference call with military commanders on Tuesday.”
“In April, Kiev lost over 15,000 troops and 430 armored vehicles in battles,” he said as cited in TASS. “Therefore, the Kiev regime’s manpower losses increased by a third compared to February (the Russian Defense Ministry did not report about the Kiev regime’s military personnel losses in March),” the state publication said.
end
IRAN/ARAB NATIONS/BRICS
Five Arab states plus Iran are among 19 nations joining BRICS and their supposed new currency
(the Cradle)
Five Arab States Plus Iran Among 19 Nations Ready To Join BRICS
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Iran have formally asked to join the BRICS group of nations as it prepares to hold its annual summit in South Africa.
In total, 19 nations have expressed interest in joining the emerging-markets bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, according to Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to the group.
“What will be discussed is the expansion of BRICS and the modalities of how this will happen… Thirteen countries have formally asked to join, and another six have asked informally. We are getting applications to join every day,” the South African official told Bloomberg earlier this week.
BRICS will hold its annual summit in Cape Town during the first week of June. The foreign ministers from all five member states have confirmed their attendance.
Earlier this month, Bloomberg revealed that BRICS is expected to soon surpass the US-led G7 states in economic growth expectations.
Per their analysis, while G7 and BRICS nations each contributed equally to global economic growth in 2020, the western-led bloc’s performance has recently declined. By 2028, the G7 is expected to make up just 27.8 percent of the global economy, while BRICS will make up 35 percent.
The estimations came just a few weeks after the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s State Duma, Alexander Babakov, revealed that BRICS is working on developing a “new currency” that will be presented at the organization’s upcoming summit.
BRICS member states account for over 40 percent of the global population and around a quarter of the global GDP.
The interest from Global South nations to join the bloc comes at a time when more and more governments move away from the US dollar.
The greenback has become more unreliable for dollarized economies due to rising interest rates regulated by the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the bank’s weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions.
In addition, the west – especially Europe – is facing a growing energy crisis resulting from sanctions targeting Russian energy markets due to its invasion of Ukraine and the US sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/NATO
end
Updates on Sudan…
NONE
SUDAN
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
Biden Admin (Finally) Abandons US COVID Vaccine Travel Requirements
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 11:15 AM
Great news America… Novak Djokovic (should he wish to) will be able to enter the US and compete in this year’s US Open tennis tournament.
The reason – simple – after 3 years of increasingly obvious ‘science’, The White House announced the U.S. would be ending the requirement for non-U.S. citizens to show proof of vaccination against COVID-19 as a condition of entering the country.
The vaccine requirements will end May 11, when the Biden administration is officially declaring an end to the public health emergency.
“While vaccination remains one of the most important tools in advancing the health and safety of employees and promoting the efficiency of workplaces, we are now in a different phase of our response when these measures are no longer necessary,” the White House said.
On a side-note, the Biden admin is also ending the vaccine mandate for federal employees, federal contractors and other federally funded workers.
“Additionally, HHS and DHS announced today that they will start the process to end their vaccination requirements for Head Start educators, CMS-certified healthcare facilities, and certain noncitizens at the land border,” the White House said in its statement.
“In the coming days, further details related to ending these requirements will be provided.”
This was the last national vaccine mandate that remained in place after legal challenges brought down similar mandates for private businesses.
Finally, as AmGreatness’ Eric Lundrun writes, although the three official vaccines – developed by Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson – were developed under the presidency of Donald Trump, President Trump never ordered or required vaccination at the federal level. Upon taking power, Joe Biden vowed to force all Americans to get vaccinated, and thus pursued vaccine mandates in every aspect of American life.
GLOBAL ISSUES
How stupid can one company get?
“We’ve Never Seen Such A Dramatic Shift”: Bud Light Hopes New Ad Blitz Can Overcome Corporate Suicide
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 03:00 PM
Bud Light parent company Anheuser-Busch is desperately scrambling to rehabilitate their image following corporate suicide over a transgender ad campaign featuring TikTok influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
In order to make amends with distributors after off-site sales fell 26.1% in the week ending April 22 vs. one year ago, the company has pledged to boost marketing spending on Bud Light and accelerate production of a new slate of ads, according to the Wall Street Journal, which adds that Anheuser-Busch will give a ‘case of Bud Light to every employee’ of a wholesaler.
Meanwhile, sales of rival brands Coors Light and Miller Light each grew 21% during the same period ending April 22.
The efforts are continuing a month after Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender social-media star, spoke in an Instagram video about a personalized can of Bud Light that the brewer had sent her as a gift. The April 1 post sparked a boycott that caused sales to plummet for both Anheuser-Busch and its independently owned distributors. The distributors’ employees, many of whom drive trucks bearing the Bud Light logo, were confronted by angry people on streets, in stores and in bars. -WSJ
The deterioration of Bud Light’s market share “continued apace through the third week of April — and actually somehow worsened. We’ve never seen such a dramatic shift in national share in such a short period of time,” according to Beer Business Daily.
The fallout has spread to other Anheuser-Busch brands as well, including Budweiser, Busch Light, and Michelob Ultra, according to Bump Williams.
“It sent shock waves through distributors,” according to Jeff Wheeler, vice president of marketing for Del Papa Distributing near Houston, Texas, adding that his staff has fielded “tons of phone calls from people being very hateful.”
Two Bud Light marketing executives have been placed on administrative leave in the wake of the controversy.
Marketing Vice President Alissa Heinerscheid took a leave of absence after the Daily Caller reported on photos of her at a college party following comments she made slamming Bud Light’s customer for being “fratty.” Budweiser reportedly announced Sunday that Daniel Blake, group vice president for marketing at Anheuser-Busch, was also taking a leave of absence. –Daily Caller
After three weeks of social media silence, Mulvaney posted a TikTok video mansplaining that he wishes he could be reincarnated as someone “non-confrontational and uncontroversial.”
“I don’t know if reincarnation is a thing, but in my next life I would love to be someone non-confrontational and uncontroversial — God that sounds nice!” he said, adding “The good news is that the people pleaser in me has nearly died, because there’s clearly no way of winning over everyone.”
Mulvaney has also inked advertising deals with Instacart, Nativ, Ulta Beauty, Nike, and others.
Anheuser-Busch will report quarterly earnings on Thursday. We’re sure they’ll receive some interesting analyst questions… and of course a big question on everyone’s mind; will they cut outlook?
END
Vaccine issues:
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER:
Breaking: hero 7th-grader Dillon Reeves saves bus load of kids as mRNA tech COVID vaccine-injured school bus driver becomes incapacitated driving bus; took control & stopped bus from crashing! HERO
Dillon is a hero & must be rewarded! Parents did a great job! Will politicians now take their heads from out of their tax-payer fleecing anuses, will corrupted CDC & FDA recognize vaccine risks?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 1 |
‘Dillon Reeves was on a bus taking him as well as other students home from a day of classes at Carter middle school in Warren, just north of Detroit, when the driver began to feel dizzy and passed out, said a statement from the local education system’s superintendent.
Reeves went to the front of the bus after he noticed the driver had fallen, stepped on the brakes and steered away from traffic on the road to bring the vehicle to a stop, according to video obtained by CBS News.
After Reeves told his schoolmates to call for help, emergency responders – along with the principal of Carter – arrived. None of the children onboard were hurt. Reeves had also prevented the bus from striking at least one car and a house that were in its path, said a Facebook post from local city council member Jonathan Lafferty, which identified the quickly acting boy.’
Start here for my views:
Many, pilots, police, military, bus drivers, many around us are dying suddenly, dying at dawn (in their sleep), dying on the play field, cardiac arrests e.g. Damar Hamlin, due to catecholamine surges (adrenaline) bathing a scarred myocardium due to vaccine-induced myocarditis, many with ‘silent’ myocarditis, inpacitated from the Malone and Karikó and Weissman COVID mRNA technology based gene injection and the question is, when will the authorities act?
People are dying from the fraud of CDC, NIH, FDA, Health Canada, PHAC, SAGE and similar corrupted health agencies and regulators COVID policies and decisions, and the fraud untested, unsafe, ineffective (negative effectiveness) gene injection is wreaking havoc. The COVID mRNA technology based gene injections were never ever safety tested and never for the right duration, sample size etc. to detect rare events etc. When will parents stand up for we know many of their teens have silent myocarditis now, vaccine injured. Will die. Males and females. Will a plane loaded with 300 passengers fall from the sky first for someone to act? For the FAA to act? For airlines to exclude myocarditis from their pilots before allowing any pilot to fly? I know that there are ways to mitigate this if a pilot dies in the cockpit e.g. second pilot etc. yet what I just wrote is theoretically possible and can and may and will happen. It is a matter of time as the cardiac arrest risk due to silent myocarditis is real. Why has proper testing not been mandated, to rule out risk? Look now at what is happening with bus drivers? What are we to think?
So…
Was this bus driver vaccinated? More than likely 100% to be driving that bus. Malone and Karikó and Weissman, what say you? As inventors of the core key ingredient of the mRNA technology gene injections. What say others like you who did this with your fraud untested unsafe mRNA technology? What in God’s name were you thinking? Did you ever test it for safety before you unleashed it? Is this only always about money to you people? Fame? Nobels? Why did you do this? Malone has now said para “these vaccines are not completely or properly safe”, after it was rolled out and after he knew about the lack of safety and huge risks. But that aside, that time delay in warning the world, can Dr. Malone tell us about the safety of the mRNA technology he worked on in the past and he invented and that is in the final vaccine today? Where is the safety data? Was any safety testing done with regards to the mRNA technology itself? On its own or in combination with the lipid-nano particle complex? On the nano technology itself? When he wrote the Research Gate paper I think in 2020 (? as to exact date), what did he then know about the harms of mRNA technology he invented in terms of any use in any human vaccines? Can he be open, transparent, explicit please.
The tax payer needs a full accounting for the people involved in mRNA technology research and similar enriched themselves on tax payer money, for decades. It is a fact. Remember, I have been part of the research community and it is why I left it, I know how this grant thing runs, it is corrupted and a farse. It is a club to enrich oneself and have a salary but really doing nothing IMO. Much of it. All funded by the tax payer. It is kind of like cancer research. Hundreds of billions wasted and we are at the same point, not advanced, we have not been able to save lives or stop cancer or the like. Just many institutes and agencies. Just the researchers have developed a nice industry to themselves to keep the tax-payer money flowing. False hope. It’s a corrupted farce. Medicine and researchers set up clubs and they suck on donor money. Knowing they are doing nothing. Basically. Some important advances but mostly, its a farce.
Now you Malone and Karikó and Weissman and others, must answer questions on this devastating mRNA technology that the tax payer paid for. I am one of them. I am a US tax payer and ask these questions as one and you must answer to me. And many tax payers. Yes we see Moderna CEO et al. making millions (Bourla and Bancel and Sahin etc.), but you invented the core ingredient of the fraud deadly shot. We need you questioned fully for had Dillon not acted, we could have had 50 dead kids on that bus. You, people like you are fully responsible for each death. IMO. We at the least must have urgent serious discussions (legal, scientific) and you need to stop the shows. You people must sit down under oaths and answer questions. Formal questions. Dog and pony ring circus must stop. People have died due to your work. Did you test your invention for safety, and behaviour long-term? Can you give us, give me, give the world, the mRNA technology safety data you have and had? Please provide us Dr. Malone, and Karikó and Weissman and others, the mRNA technology safety data you must have given your invention of it. Give it in any manner you can. Can you make it available to the media, in your substack, Twitter, just past it, show is the safety data.
END
3 pediatric centers in Israel, 7 cases of perimyocarditis following COVID-19 mRNA technology based Pfizer vaccination in children 16–18 years of age; all patients were Jewish & presented with chest
pain that began 1–3 days following vaccination (mean, 2.1 days). In 6 of the 7 patients, symptoms began following the 2nd dose and in 1 patient following the 1st dose.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 1 |
SOURCE:
END
Pilots are at risk of incapacitation in the plane’s cockpit (many have had cardiac arrests) due to the mRNA technology based COVID gene injections; airlines & FAA does not care! School bus drivers are
also at risk & a recent rash of school bus drivers collapsin at the wheel of the bus raises serious riks to our children, all COVID vaccinated by mandates; will parents now stand up? Is this it?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 1 |
These bus drivers now seem to be succumbing to the COVID mRNA technology based gene injections. Are our children at risk of death due to crashed? Will politicians now act? Where is the concern? Dr. William Makis raises this issue that the health authorities and politicians are essentially ignoring and pretending that pilots are not collapsing and having heart attacks in-flight (thank God a plane has not yet been a victim loaded with passengers as all have landed safely). In other words, will they pretend, put their heads in the sand, and only act and be interested when the first bus loaded with kids crashes and kids die due to a COVID vaccine injured bus driver who collapsed at the wheel?
Parents, over to you now! It is time to act.
END
FDA & Pfizer knew, Dr. Walensky knew, that pregnant women & babies in utero would be poisoned by the mRNA technology COVID shot; they mandated this deadly vaccine (Amy Kelley & Dr. Naomi Wolf cry out)
This Twitter post by Wolf is shocking, it is on Rumble, please share this to inform the public, get the word out to every pregnant woman, tell them the risks, tell them about these vaccine monsters
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 2 |
SOURCE:
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyJAVyvLAnxb
END
Why did most deaths in Australia occur in 2022, after the COVID mRNA technology based gene injection? When Australia vaccinated far more of its population than any other nation? With its lockdown
lunatic ZERO-COVID policies? How come? Berenson asks the question too and I join him and the graph is simple yet potent. What say you? Berenson can be obnoxious too but I think he is smart, key to me
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 2 |
DR PANDA
END
END
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| RFK Jr: Bill Gates & WEF Are Using ‘Climate Change’ to Control PopulationRobert F. Kennedy Jr. has issued a warning to the American people about the tyrannical measures that are being ushered in by the World Economic Forum, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, and other “mega billionaires.”READ MORE |
| Dan Bongino Humiliates Stephen King after Author Gloats over Fox News ExitAuthor Stephen King heckled Dan Bongino on Twitter but the move backfired when the popular conservative commentator shredded the author in response.READ MORE |
| Democrat Senator Calls It Quits: ‘It’s Time’ to RetireDemocrat Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) has announced that he is retiring and won’t seek reelection next year.READ MORE |
| 27 States Revolt against Biden’s ‘Unconscionable Policy’ for Mortgages: ‘Will Be a Disaster’27 states are revolting against Democrat President Joe Biden’s new plan to make good-credit borrowers help subsidize mortgages from higher-risk borrowers.READ MORE |
| Rupert Murdoch Held Secret Talk with Zelensky before Firing Tucker CarlsonFox News Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch held a secret call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky shortly before he made the shocking decision to fire star anchor Tucker Carlson, according to a new report.READ MORE |
| Lori Lightfoot Begs Gov Abbott to Stop Sending Migrants to Chicago: City at ‘Critical Tipping Point’Chicago’s failed Democrat Mayor Lori Lightfoot has begged Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott to stop sending migrants to her crumbling city.READ MORE |
| KISS Co-Founder Paul Stanley: Gender Reassignment for Kids Is a ‘Sad and Dangerous Fad’Paul Stanley, the lead singer and co-founder of the band KISS, has blasted efforts to normalize gender reassignment treatments for children.READ MORE |
| Ted Cruz Demands Death Penalty for Illegal Alien Who Murdered 5 in TexasRepublican Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has issued a furious response to the murder of five people in Texas who were shot dead by a five times-deported illegal alien.READ MORE |
| Elon Musk Slams Child Sex Changes, Warns ‘Surgery or Chemical Sterilization’ Causing ‘Increased Suicides’Twitter boss Elon Musk has spoken out to warn the public about the dangers of putting children through life-altering sex-change treatments.READ MORE |
| TV Chef Jock Zonfrillo Dies Suddenly at 46, Family ‘Completely Shattered’TV chef Jock Zonfrillo has died suddenly at just 46 years old, his devastated family has revealed.READ MORE |
| Democrats Furious after GOP Councilman Comes Out as ‘Woman of Color’A Republican Councilman from Indiana, Ryan Webb, announced he will now identify as a “woman of color.”READ MORE |
| Fox News Announces Next Replacement for Tucker Carlson after Seeing Huge Drop in RatingsFox News has named the next replacement host for former star anchor Tucker Carlson’s timeslot.READ MORE |
| Biden Finally Caves, Calls Himself ‘Brandon’Democrat President Joe Biden has finally caved to popular demand and called himself “Brandon.”READ MORE |
| VACCINE IMPACT |
Is Congress Really More Concerned About AI Launching a Nuclear Attack than an 80-Year-Old Demented President?
May 1, 2023 5:32 pm
A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators have introduced the “Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous AI Act,” which would “prohibit the use of Federal funds to launch a nuclear weapon using an autonomous weapons system that is not subject to meaningful human control.” This is so absurd, that I don’t know if members of Congress are actually this stupid, or if this is a psyop to instill fear into the public over AI, similar to how fear was used to convince most of the public that there was a deadly coronavirus that threatened humanity back in 2020. Let’s start with the fact that there is no such thing as “autonomous AI.” It is fake, it does not exist. Some believe it could happen in the future, but even that is based on either ignorance or intentional fear mongering to get people to fear AI. But no matter what your beliefs are about AI’s capability in the future, nobody in the Tech industry today working with AI would say that AI is now “fully autonomous.” We haven’t even been able to develop a “fully autonomous” car yet after almost 20 years, let alone something that could launch a nuclear attack. So this is a meaningless bill. It would be the same thing as filing a bill to “Block Autonomous Handguns from Killing People.” But guns are not autonomous. They need people to wield them, and the same is true of AI or any computer code for that matter. The real threat today to launch a nuclear attack, lies with the President of the United States, who “has the unilateral authority to choose to use nuclear weapons.” However, there are ways that “Congress can limit when and how the president uses nuclear weapons.” Wouldn’t that be a better use of Congress right now, given the ongoing real threats in Ukraine and Taiwan that could escalate into nuclear confrontations, and the fact that the U.S. has an 80-year-old president who continually shows signs of deteriorating mental capabilities?
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
Republic First, J.P. More-Gain
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 09:15 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The weekend saw Chinese PMI data suggest deflation is a risk there –“But what about reopening?!”– and yesterday’s US ISM flagged stagflation as a risk, as the headline remained below 50 but price pressures were seen picking up again anyway – what about that Fed pivot the market keeps pricing for?
Then we had First Republic Bank being taken over by J.P. Morgan in an ‘interesting’ piece of financial engineering which I don’t have the space to go into here in detail. Suffice to say that again, the US financial system has been ‘saved’; again, stock and bondholders haven’t; again rich, uninsured (Californian, Democrat-donor) depositors have; and Too Big To Fail banks are now even bigger and obviously even less allowed to fail, reversing what was supposed to be the post-2008 regulatory norms. Many points of discussion flow on from that:
- Fed Chair J. Powell starts another FOMC meeting against a bank failure, and yet will again hike rates 25bps (this time to 5.25%). Moreover, the Wall Street Journal’s Timiraos says he isn’t likely to flag a pause, instead keeping the door open to doing more if necessary.
- We may see some form of US credit crunch. Indeed, a US banking conflab was talking about that yesterday. On the other hand, there are some who think the Fed has been asking banks to scale back on lending to try to give them more leeway to pause – in other words tightening via backdoor policy. That sounds ‘un-American’ for those who know nothing about the real America, but it’s arguably still better than policy tightening via repeated bank failures.
- J.P. Morgan is at the heart of things again. Some will recall that in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the bank was persuaded to swallow Bear Sterns and Washington Mutual, which CEO Dimon has said he would rather not have undertaken. Those with a longer memory will recall the 1907 Panic, where Mr. Morgan personally bailed out the US financial system. I expect fewer mentions this week of the allegations that Morgan was also involved in a planned fascist coup against President F.D.R. in the 1930s, the so-called “Wall Street putsch”.
- Geopolitics is echoing the 1930s. Axios is the latest to say: ‘US allies prepare for possibility of war over Taiwan’; the US says its Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines is “iron clad” following maritime tension; China revised its conscription law to boost its pool of draftees, ‘Locks Information on the Country Inside a Black Box’, and even the US Chamber of Commerce in China warns of major increase in risks for businesses; China and Russia signed a deal on maritime law enforcement; Iran –which saw an oil tanker destined for China seized by the US, seizing a foreign tanker back– proposed a “maritime security belt” led by the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation to provide “safety, security, and stability of global maritime trade”; and the US displayed bunker-busting bombs for use against Iran. Yet the Wall Street Journal also says ‘US Struggles to Replenish Munitions Stockpiles as Ukraine War Drags On’ noting, “plans to increase production of key munitions have fallen short due to shortages of chips, machinery, and skilled workers.”
How does this latter point link back to JP and First Republic? Let’s look at the wording of the Federal Reserve’s Section 2A. Monetary policy objectives (my emphasis added):
“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”
Not just “stable prices”, which we won’t have if the Fed cuts rates as markets are pricing for; not just “maximum employment”, which we may not end ahead given demographics, onshoring, re-arming, and labor hoarding; not just “moderate long-term interest rates,” or financial stability, so acronyms like BTFP, which FRB partook of to no avail before being swallowed by JPM; rather, TO INCREASE PRODUCTION to allow all of the above to happen.
For three decades of a geopolitically benign environment and the last Cold War decade before, the Fed could get away with ignoring US production to rely on imports and financialisation. Now, as war rages in Ukraine and wider war fear mount, and de/re-globalisation shifts supply chains, it cannot. US production must increase, and financialisation decrease. The question is how, starting from here.
Rates are going to be much higher for much longer even before we get into the biggest picture issue of ‘de-dollarisation’. That’s a production problem according to economic theory. However, economic reality shows in a globalised trading system, lower US rates don’t see any increase in productive investment anyway – just pointless (but profitable for some) financialisation.
Clearly, much more productive investment is going to be required by the US economy when the current ‘financialised’ system has no ability or interest in supporting it. That means more national-security focused industrial policy, as White House National Security Advisor Sullivan made explicit last week, to tumbleweeds from a market unwilling to listen. It likely also means more QE, not QT, in the form of de facto MMT, not yield-lowering, excess-reserve-building exercises: it’s just when this happens. And/or it means a more centralised US banking system that listens to ‘guidance’ from the more powerful Fed telling it what is in the national interest for it to lend to.
In short, this time the “Wall Street Putsch” might be the other way round, and the is coup J(ay) P(owell) More-gain saying ‘Republic First!’
Only time will tell – but don’t be surprised if this is the way it plays out.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
AUSTRALIA
Australia shocks the world with a surprise 25 basis rate hike
(zerohedge)
Australia Shocks With Surprise 25bps Rate Hike After April Pause; Aussie, Yields Soar
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 07:30 AM
What do you do when, unlike the Fed, you can’t tighten monetary policy through mandated bank failures (SVB, FRC)? Why you engage in surprise rate hikes, of course.
This is what the Reserve Bank of Australia did overnight, when one month after it purportedly paused its tightening campaign, the central bank unexpectedly hiked the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.85% – a move which was seen by just 9 out of 30 Bloomberg forecasters, with consensus firmly in the no hike camp – while stating that the Board expects “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe” and “will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labor market.” As such, the RBA “remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.”
The RBA attributed the decision to inflation being “still too high”, and while it had passed its peak at 7% it was still too high, and unit labor costs “rising briskly”, though there was no incremental information on unit labor costs in the month and that the RBA downgraded its end-2023 CPI forecast to 4.5%yoy (from 4.8%) following a weaker-than-expected 1Q2023 CPI print during April. The RBA today also lowered forecast GDP growth to end-2023 by ~35bp to 1.25%yoy. The attending statement retained a (somewhat softer) tightening bias that “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required” (prior: “may well be needed”).
Having paused a 10-month tightening cycle in April, the RBA’s decision to restart after a single month was quite a shock – and particularly given the weaker CPI report in the interim and clear historical precedent for the RBA to observe multi-month pauses. While it is hard to know at this stage, it is possible that fear of spillovers connected to the US banking crisis (although this did not stop the Fed/ECB hiking) and/or considerations around the RBA Review may explain the brief pause in April.
With financial markets pricing just 3bp of tightening prior to the meeting, the rate hike announcement and hawkish guidance came as a shock to markets, sending the aussie soaring and probing 0.6700 and the top end of 1.5 bn expiry options…
… while the 2Y Australia note soared over 20bps from 3.07% to as high as 3.32% before modestly fading gains.
Naturally, local stock markets were not happy with the surprise tightening, and the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.9% to close at 7,267.40. “A potential higher terminal rate is a risk and negative for equities,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s becoming a credibility issue now, these shocks to markets, and we need to add discount due to policy uncertainty,” he said.
Commenting on the decision, Chamath De Silva, a senior fund manager for BetaShares in Sydney said that the RBA’s unexpected rate hike is a negative surprise for Australia’s equity and bond markets following the central bank’s April pause.
By ignoring market pricing and only focusing on recent economic data, “you can kind of see why they felt the need to hike, and maybe the pause last month was motivated by some of the banking stress during March,” he said adding that “the market basically had a zero probability attached to today’s move. So this is a huge shock just from that perspective.”
“Most traders here were probably expecting a non-event so they could direct all their attention toward the FOMC, but now they have to deal with their positioning being a bit offside.”
Looking ahead, Goldman strategists said they continue to expect the RBA to hike to a 4.1% terminal rate. Following today’s decision, they expect a final +25bp increase at July’s meeting (prior: +25bp in July/Aug) – allowing the RBA visibility on key updates on the national accounts, unit labor costs, and the annual resetting of the minimum wage. That said, “the balance of risks is skewed to a higher terminal rate, with a material risk of a back-to-back rate increase in June.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0969 DOWN 0.0001
USA/ YEN 137.35 DOWN 0.172 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2474 DOWN 0.0009
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3574 UP .0022 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 22 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 28.24 PTS OR 0.20%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .86% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 28.24 PTS OR 0.27 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.86%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 266.74 PTS OR 0.92%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1987.45
silver:$24/76
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.94 UP 0 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.088% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.415 % UP 1 AND 4//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.319 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.165 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.254 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0983 UP 0.0014 or 14 basis points
USA/Japan: 136.47 DOWN 1.054 OR YEN UP 105 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2454 DOWN .0031 OR 31BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0079 OR 16 BASIS pts to 1.3631
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED XXX.(6.9121)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9387
TURKISH LIRA: 19.47 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.415…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 14 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.437% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.721 DOWN 10 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.955% DOWN 18 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.93 UP 53 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 93.95 points or 1.19%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 205.38 PTS OR 1.29%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 113.53 PTS OR 1.52%
Spain IBEX DOWN 167.10 PTS OR 1.81%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 456.85 PTS OR 1.69%
WTI Oil price 72.30 12: EST
Brent Oil: 75.64. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 79.80/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 45//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.254 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.6945 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1004 UP 0.0036 OR 36 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2475 DOWN .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.6925% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.49 DOWN 1.025 //YEN UP 103 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3623 UP .0071 CDN dollar, DOWN 71 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.68
Brent OIL: 75.35
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 14 BASIS pts to 3.431%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS PTS to 3.717%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 16 PTS AT 3.9757%
USA dollar index: 101.66 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.47
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.62 UP 0 AND 63/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 367.77 PTS OR 1.08%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 117.81 PTS OR 0.89%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.79 UP 1.71 PTS (10.63)%
GLD: $187.83 UP 3.55 OR 1.93%
SLV/ $23.35 UP 0.46 OR 2.01%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bonds & Bullion Burst Higher, Banks Battered As JOLTs Plunge Ahead Of Jay Powell
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 04:01 PM
A surprise RBA rate-hike, hotter than expected headline EU inflation, weak JOLTS, poor US factory orders, a sudden realization of the urgency and seriousness of the debt ceiling debacle, Europe back from vacation, and/or just pre-FOMC jitters?
…or was it this?
US Macro data is serially disappointing…
Source: Bloomberg
US debt ceiling anxiety is serially increasing…
Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were a bloodbath as the world and his pet rabbit realized JPM hadn’t saved the universe. Regionals were smashed lower as whack-a-mole resumes…
Source: Bloomberg
And even the big boys suffered…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, all the majors were lower today with Small Caps hardest hit…
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks puked hard…
Source: Bloomberg
0-DTE fought hard against the initial down-thrust in stocks from the cash-open. Stocks stalled around 4100 then rebounded and then around 1400ET, 0-DTE call-buyers took profits…
VIX1D soared today, breaking back above VIX for the first time since April 11th (ahead of CPI) and April 6th (ahead of payrolls)…
Source: Bloomberg
And as we noted earlier, equity markets remain somewhat more sanguine about the debt ceiling threat that other markets
Source: Bloomberg
And then there was Chegg, down 50%… AI’s first victim…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were aggressively bid as Europe’s liquidity returned and the heavy corporate calendar eased up. The long-end underperformed but the entire curve plunged (30Y -10bps, 5Y -18bps, 2Y -16bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields fell back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-hike odds plunged today ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement. The market adjusted down to an 85% chance of a 25bps hike tomorrow…
Source: Bloomberg
…but most notably, June went from a 35% chance of 25bps hike to a 15% chance of a 25bps rate-cut today…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dipped lower on the day, erasing European session gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced off $28,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back above $2000, with futs at 3-week highs…
Oil plunged with WTI back to a $71 handle – well below the pre-OPEC+ lows – suffering its biggest drop since Jan 4th…
Finally, circling back to the beginning, how do you think the global economy is going to cope with the massive tightening of lending standards…
Source: Bloomberg
Especially when inflation remains far stickier than anyone expected it would be by this time in the tightening cycle.
END
.i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading: this morning
Regional banks in a huge freefall!
S**t Just Hit The Fan Across Markets, Regional Banks In Freefall
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:37 AM
Weak JOLTS?, Poor factory orders, a sudden realization of the urgency and seriousness of the debt ceiling debacle, Europe back from vacation, or just pre-FOMC jitters?
Who knows to be frank but everything went just a little bit turbo, starting with a total collapse in regional banks…
And despite the Biden admin claiming that FRC was just another ‘outlier’ business model, PacWest, Western Alliance, and Zions (among others) are in a freefall…
The majors all instantly puked at the US cash open, led by Small Caps (but The Dow and S&P are down over 1%)…
“Most Shorted” stocks are getting monkeyhammered lower…
Just as we warned yesterday, the surge in yields (driven by a heavy corporate calendar and illiquid marke) has reversed entirely with yields collapsing this morning…
The 2Y Yield has puked back to a 4.00% handle…
Gold has spiked back above $2000…
And Bitcoin is starting to rip again…
And Oil prices are tumbling, with WTI now back well below pre-OPEC+ levels…
Is this a last minute effort to pressure Powell to be ‘one and done’?
II) USA DATA//
Core factory orders has just delivered its first full yearly contraction since Dec 2020
(zerohedge)
US Core Factory Orders First Annual Contraction Since Dec 2020
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:11 AM
Headline factory orders for March disappointed e3xpectations, rising 0.9% MoM versus +1.3% MoM expected (and Feb’s 0.7% decline was revised down to 1.1% MoM decline). That pushed the YoY growth in factory orders to just +1.4% YoY – the weakest since Feb 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
END
JOLTS…..
Labor Market In Freefall As Job Openings Slide, Quits Tumble To 2 Year Low
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:41 AM
For months we have been warning that at a time when the US economy is careening into a hard landing recession, the manipulated, seasonally-adjusted, and politically goalseeked job openings data released as part of the DOL’s JOLTS report is sheer rubbish (see “US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor“; “Handle The JOLTS Data With Care“, “Just Make it Up: Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar As Labor Department Now Guessing What The Number Is“).
And one month after we saw an epic, long overdue thud in the number of artificially-inflated February job openings, today we got yet another confirmation of just how painful the labor market’s reacquaintance with gravity and mean reversion will be.
With consensus expecting only a modest drop in March job openings after the February collapse and sharp downward January revision, what the BLS reported instead was yet another doozy for the third month in a row: in March there were just 9.590 million job openings, the lowest since April 2022, and a drop of 384K from the upward revised February print. Combined with the sharp drops in January (-671K) and February (-589K), the combined three-month drop in job openings was the 2nd biggest on record!
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Yellen warns that the Treasury will run out of cash by June 1 as tax receipts are down 35%. Usually tax receipts are a good indicator as to the strength of the economy.
(zerohedge)
Yellen Warns Treasury To Run Out Of Cash As Soon As June 1 Absent Debt Ceiling Deal
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 05:03 PM
In a long-awaited update from Janet Yellen, shortly after the close, the Treasury Secretary sent a letter to Congress in which she said that as a result of the recent slowdown in tax receipts (extensively discussed here), the Treasury could run out of emergency debt-limit measures (i.e., hit the infamous X-Date) as soon as June 1 absent a debt-ceiling deal, a revision to her previous Jan 13 letter in which she said that it was “unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures would be exhausted before early June.” In other words, Congress has exactly one month to get a deal to raise the debt limit – which of course won’t happen without the market first plunging enough to prompt the extremely polarized chamber into action.
Here is the key part from the letter:
In my January 13 letter, I noted that it was unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures would be exhausted before early June. After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. This estimate is based on currently available data, as federal receipts and outlays are inherently variable, and the actual date that Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of weeks later than these estimates.
As a reminder, we have been tracking daily cumulative tax receipts which had fallen as much as 35% below last year’s levels…
… prompting banks to warn that a debt ceiling crunch could come far sooner than the expected X-date some time in late July/early August.
To be sure, Yellen admits that the X-date remains fluid, a function of the daily changes in tax receipts and outlays, and it is “impossible to predict with certainty the exact date when Treasury will be unable to pay the government’s bills” and Yellen will provide further updates to Congress in the coming weeks “as more information becomes available” but given the current projections, Yellen warns that “it is imperative that Congress act as soon as possible to increase or suspend the debt limit in a way that provides longer-term certainty that the government will continue to make its payments.”
Additionally, Yellen said that to avoid breaching the debt limit, the Treasury is suspending the issuance of State and Local Government Series (SLGS) Treasury securities: “SLGS are special-purpose Treasury securities issued to states and municipalities to help them comply with certain tax rules. When Treasury issues SLGS, they count against the debt limit.”
Such a move will deprive “state and local governments of an important tool to manage their finances”, which for a country that spends like a drunken sailor, is a move in the right direction.
Finally, as usual, Yellen ends by pleading with Congress to get a debt ceiling deal done as soon as possible:
We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States. If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests.
Needless to say, with the debt ceiling becoming the most controversial political topic and one which neither side is willing to compromise over, it is likely that nothing short of a market quake – similar to August 2011 – will be needed to prompt Congress into action, especially since there are just 12 legislative days between now and June 1.
And while it is likely that Yellen is just fearmongering in hopes of forcing Republicans to concede to Democrats and agree to a blank check debt ceiling hike, the kink in the Bill curve suggests that bond traders are increasingly concerned that Yellen’s early June deadline may be accurate.
Separately, earlier today, the Treasury published its latest debt borrowing estimates for the April – June 2023 and July – September 2023 quarters.Source: Treasury
Starting with the historical data, the Treasury notes that during the first calendar quarter of 2023, Treasury borrowed $657 billion and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $178 billion. This is a huge difference from the forecast made just three months ago, in January 2023, when Treasury estimated borrowing of $932 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion, a forecast which was prevented due to the lack of a debt ceiling deal. The $275 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance, somewhat offset by lower net fiscal flows.
Looking ahead…
- For the April – June 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $726 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $550 billion (up from the $178BN as of March 31).The borrowing estimate is $449 billion higher than announced in January 2023, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance ($322 billion), and projections of lower receipts and higher outlays ($117 billion).
- For the July – September 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow another $733 billion in net debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $600 billion.
Similar to last quarter, the April-June 2023 forecast is unlikely to pan out if either Yellen’s forecast for a June 1 X-date is wrong (as the debt ceiling would remain in place and no net increase in marketable borrowing securities would take place until a deal is completed), or if Congress fails to get a deal done even if the X-date is crossed and the US is forced to compartmentalize spending.
That said, a debt ceiling deal will get done eventually, even if it means a market crash to get Congress to move, and the longer new debt issuance is delayed, the bigger the eventual burst in new debt to hit the market as Treasury, which as of today is roughly $32 trillion if there was no temporary barrier on new debt issuance.
END
Ron Paul Warns Congress Is Ignoring The Real Debt-Ceiling Drama
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity,
Last week the House passed legislation increasing the debt ceiling. The bill was supported by all but four Republicans. For some Republicans, this was the first time they had ever voted for a debt ceiling increase.
Perhaps the reason they did so this time was because the legislation also promised to reduce federal spending by $4.5 trillion over the next decade. Most of those spending reductions are achieved by rolling back Fiscal Year spending to 2022 levels and then limiting increases in spending to one percent for the next ten years. The bill also returns unspent COVID relief money to the US Treasury and eliminates President Biden’s student loan forgiveness programs.
Perhaps the most significant part of the bill is the REINS Act. This legislation requires congressional approval of any new federal regulation that will have an impact of more than $100 million, will have significant harmful impact on the economy, or will increase consumer prices. Even though the bill increases spending and debt, there are reasons a supporter of limited government might vote for it.
However even in the unlikely event that this bill is passed in the Senate and signed into law by President Biden, it is unlikely that the one percent spending cap would remain in force for the full ten years. Historically, spending caps imposed as part of a balanced budget or debt ceiling deal do not last for more than one or two Congressional terms. This is because every spending program is “protected” by members of Congress whose constituents and/or donors benefit from the program. This process already occurred with this bill before it was even voted on, as Speaker McCarthy had to remove provisions limiting ethanol subsidies to appease several farm state Republicans.
Surely lobbyists for the military industrial complex are already plotting to use hysteria over China, Putin, Iran, or one of the US’s many other designed enemies to justify greater than one percent increase in military spending.
The only reason the US government is able to run up such huge deficits without experiencing a complete economic meltdown is the dollar’s world reserve currency status. But the growing de-dollarization movement-fueled by the US government’s fiscal recklessness and hyper-interventionist foreign policy should be a wake-up call to Congress.
Sadly, few in DC seem to be paying attention.
The government’s fiscal situation will soon worsen, as both the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will likely be bankrupt within the next decade, forcing Congress to find an additional $116 trillion to fully fund them.
The looming economic crisis is a symptom of our moral and philosophic crisis. Too many Americans have bought into the lie that government can and should provide them with economic and physical safety while promoting “global democracy” abroad. Therefore, the most important step in the liberty movement now is convincing more people to apply the same moral code to theft and murder committed by government as they apply to those same crimes by private citizens. The government, at the very least, should be held to the same moral codes as the people it governs.
Ensuring that government follows the same nonaggression principle as law-abiding citizens is the key to a society of freedom, peace, and prosperity.
end
Absolutely stupid!!
Biden “Punishes Responsibility” As New Mortgage Equity Program Begins
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 10:20 PM
Starting today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s mortgage pricing adjustments will increase fees for borrowers with high credit scores while reducing costs for those with subpar credit scores. This upside-down policy is blatantly socialism, and one can’t help but wonder if anyone in the Biden administration learned anything from the subprime mortgage meltdown that occurred more than a decade ago.
As part of the Biden administration’s plan to make housing affordable for everyone (we’ve seen this story before), upfront fees for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be adjusted based on the borrower’s credit score. Borrowers with high credit scores will pay more in fees, while those with lower credit scores will pay less.
The Wall Street Journal cited data from Evercore ISI that shows borrowers with credit scores between 720-759 who make around 15-20% down payments will see loan-level pricing adjustment (LLPA) costs rise by .750%. Inversely, under the new adjustments, risky borrowers with a credit score below 639 and who put down only 5% of the value of their home will only have to pay 1.750%, compared with 3.750% under old rules.
Backlash over LLPA changes prompted the FHFA to publish a statement last week, calling such concerns “a fundamental misunderstanding.” The Biden administration ensures the new changes are meant to help those with poor credit scores obtain homes amid the worst housing affordability in a generation.
According to the FHFA, the new adjustments will redistribute funds to reduce the interest rate costs paid by risky borrowers. This sounds like socializing home buying to us.
Even more alarming is data from the American Enterprise Institute found that default rates of Fannie/Freddie owner-occupied 30-year fixed-rate purchase loans acquired in 2006-2007 were between 39.3% and 56.2% for borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 639 and less than 4% down payments. Those with credit scores between 720 and 769 and 20% down payments had default rates between 4.2% and 8.8%.
Meanwhile, 27 states revolted against Biden’s mortgage redistribution rule to subsidize risky borrowers…
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) blasted Biden.
“Punishing responsibility—that’s the Biden way,” tweeted Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR).
“While the changes may not be as bad as some headlines suggest, it still seems illogical to essentially penalize fiscally responsible borrowers in an effort to assist less qualified borrowers,” Federal Savings Bank loan officer Lewis Sogge told us.
END
IBM is stopping to hire roles for people that can be replaced by Artificial Intelligence. Many companies are firing workers as artificial intelligence does their job
(zero hedge)
IBM To Stop Hiring For Roles That Can Be Replaced By AI; Nearly 8,000 Workers To Be Replaced By Automation
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 09:40 PM
One month ago, to much dismay and widespread denial, Goldman predicted that AI could lead to some 300 million layoffs among highly paid, non-menial workers in the US and Europe. As Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius put it, “using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation” as up to “two thirds of occupations could be partially automated by AI.”
Yet while Goldman’s forecast was met with a emotions ranging from incredulity to outright mockery, it may not have been too far off the mark.
Consider that just last week, Dropbox said it would lay off 16% of the company, some 500 employees as the company sought to build out its AI division. In a memo to employees, Dropbox CEO Drew Houston said that “in an ideal world, we’d simply shift people from one team to another. And we’ve done that wherever possible. However, our next stage of growth requires a different mix of skill sets, particularly in AI and early-stage product development. We’ve been bringing in great talent in these areas over the last couple years and we’ll need even more.”
The changes we’re announcing today, while painful, are necessary for our future,” Houston notes. “I’m determined to ensure that Dropbox is at the forefront of the AI era, just as we were at the forefront of the shift to mobile and the cloud. We’ll need all hands on deck as machine intelligence gives us the tools to reimagine our existing businesses and invent new ones.”
But while Dropbox’s layoffs were lateral, and meant to open up space for more AI linked hires, in the case of IBM, it is AI itself that is making workers redundant.
As Bloomberg reports, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the company expects to pause hiring for roles it thinks could be replaced with artificial intelligence in the coming years. As a result, hiring in back-office functions — such as human resources — will be suspended or slowed, Krishna said in an interview. These non-customer-facing roles amount to roughly 26,000 workers, Krishna said. “I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.” That would mean roughly 7,800 jobs lost.
Part of any reduction would include not replacing roles vacated by attrition, an IBM spokesperson said.
Krishna’s plan marks one of the largest workforce strategies announced in response to the rapidly advancing technology; it certainly won’t be the last as virtually all companies follow in IBM’s footsteps and layoffs tens if not hundreds of millions of workers in the coming years.
Mundane tasks such as providing employment verification letters or moving employees between departments will likely be fully automated, Krishna said. And while some HR functions, such as evaluating workforce composition and productivity, probably won’t be replaced over the next decade, it is only a matter of time before these roles are also replaced by AI.
IBM currently employs about 260,000 workers and continues to hire for software development and customer-facing roles. Finding talent is easier today than a year ago, Krishna said. The company announced job cuts earlier this year, which may amount to about 5,000 workers once completed. Still, Krishna said IBM has added to its workforce overall, bringing on about 7,000 people in the first quarter.
The Armonk, New York-based IBM beat profit estimates in its most recent quarter due to expense management, including the earlier-announced job cuts. In the past IBM had managed to manipulate its stock higher thanks to billions in stock buybacks (at much higher prices). But once its debt load grew too big, the buyback game ended, Warren Buffett sold his shares, and the stock price has languished for over half a decade. And since the company’s revenue is stagnant at best, its only hope is to drastically cut overhead.
Enter AI: new “productivity and efficiency” steps – read replacing workers with algos – are expected to drive $2 billion a year in savings by the end of 2024, Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh said on the day of earnings.
Helping the company’s imminent transition to an AI-staffed corporation will be the coming recession. Until late 2022, Krishna said he believed the US could avoid a recession. Now, he sees the potential for a “shallow and short” recession toward the end of this year, although it remains unclear just how once can determine that a recession will be “shallow and short”.
END
Morgan Stanley somehow is not doing as good as the crooked JPM as they are prepared to cut 3000 job
(zerohedge)
Morgan Stanley Prepares To Cut 3,000 Jobs As M&A Activity Sours
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 06:54 AM
Morgan Stanley is planning to eliminate 3,000 jobs in the second quarter amid the continued slowdown in the merger and acquisition (M&A) space and increasing concerns about recession, as per a source cited by Bloomberg.
“Senior managers are discussing plans to eliminate about 3,000 jobs from the global workforce by the end of this quarter,” according to the source.
This proposed downsizing would equate to roughly a 5% reduction, excluding financial advisors and their support staff in the wealth management division. As of the fourth quarter of 2022, the New York-based investment bank had a workforce of 82,427 employees.
In a separate report, a Reuters source said muted M&A activity and mounting macroeconomic headwinds prompted Morgan Stanley to push forward with headcount reductions to trim costs.
Last month, Chief Executive Officer James Gorman said subdued M&A activity is expected for this year and that he expects a rebound in 2024.
Morgan Stanley’s profit tumbled in the first quarter from a year ago, mostly pulled down by a steep decline in dealmaking, with a 32% plunge in merger advisory and a 22% slide in its equity-underwriting business.
Data from Dealogic shows M&A volumes in the first quarter were halved from a year before. It’s unlikely M&A volumes will surge anytime soon as the Federal Reserve is hellbent on raising interest rates to tame the hottest inflation in decades. Also, the regional banking crisis and credit tightening will continue to create pessimism in capital markets.
In December, Morgan Stanley axed 1,600 jobs. Goldman Sachs in January eliminated 3,200 jobs. Just last week, Lazard announced plans to shrink its headcount by 10% due to a slowdown in M&A.
With the continuing stagnation in the M&A space, more investment banks are expected to reduce their workforce as the threat of recession looms.
end
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Vice, a media company championed by the left is preparing to file for bankruptcy
(zerohedge)
Vice Preparing To File For Bankruptcy
MONDAY, MAY 01, 2023 – 11:00 PM
First BuzzFeed, now Vice: one by one all the woke “media giants” of the new normal are going broke.
Just two weeks after we reported that BuzzFeed News – which was instrumental in spreading fake news to get us suspended on twitter – was shuttering it not filing for bankruptcy just yet, today the NYT reports that the woke left’s disruptor darling and former “multi-billion media empire” Vice, which once upon a time charmed giants like Disney and Fox into investing hundreds of millions before its stunning crash-landing, is preparing to file for bankruptcy.
According to the NYT, the filing could come in the coming weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter who weren’t authorized to discuss the potential bankruptcy on the record.Vice headquarters in Venice, Calif
The company has been looking for a buyer, and still might find one, to avoid declaring bankruptcy. More than five companies have expressed interest in acquiring Vice, according to a person briefed on the discussions. The chances of that, however, are growing increasingly slim, said one of the people with knowledge of the potential bankruptcy.
A Vice bankruptcy filing would be a fitting ending to the tumultuous story of Vice, a new-media Phoenix that rose out of the ashes with its iconoclastic, counterculture facade, then quickly sought to supplant the media establishment before persuading it to invest hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2017, after a funding round from the private-equity firm TPG, Vice was worth $5.7 billion. Around this time, the company realized that for the money to keep flowing, it would need to curb its rebellious ways and quickly turned woke, losing most of its fans in the process.
As a result, the company is now worth a fraction of the money it managed to squeeze out of existing media giants, and is now facing bankruptcy.
When Vice files, the company’s largest debtholder, hegde fund Fortress, will likely end up controlling the company. Vice could continue operating normally and run an auction to sell the company over a 45-day period, with Fortress in pole position as the most likely acquirer.
Unlike Vice’s other investors, which have included Disney and Fox, Fortress holds senior debt, which means it gets paid out first in the event of a sale. Disney and Fox, which have already written down their investments to zero, are getting wiped out.
“Vice Media Group has been engaged in a comprehensive evaluation of strategic alternatives and planning,” Vice said in a statement on Monday. “The company, its board and stakeholders continue to be focused on finding the best path for the company.”
Vice began as a punk magazine in Montreal more than two decades ago. Over the years, it blossomed into a global media company with a movie studio, an ad agency, a glossy show on HBO and bureaus in far-flung world capitals. Disney, after investing hundreds of millions in Vice, explored buying the company in 2015 for more than $3 billion.
The deal never materialized, but the interest from Disney forced a comprehensive culture revolution within Vice, which lost its rebellious appeal and instead scrambled to appeal to woke snowflakes – the group that represents the core decision-making process at Disney – and not surprisingly, it lost virtually all of its readers and viewers in the process.
After it failed to convince a strategic partner to acquire it, Vice eventually succumbed to a bearish market for digital media companies. The company has been trying for years to turn a profit but has consistently failed to do so, losing money and repeatedly laying off employees.
Last week, we reported that Vice was closing its Vice World News, a global reporting initiative that covered world conflict and human-rights abuses. The closure of the world news operation was a blow to employees who saw the division’s aggressive coverage as in keeping with Vice’s roots in gonzo journalism, established when co-founder Shane Smith would report from risky destinations like North Korea.
As it has sought a buyer in recent months, Vice has dealt with turnover in its leadership ranks. Nancy Dubuc, the company’s former chief executive, left this year after nearly five years at the company. Jesse Angelo, the company’s global president of news and entertainment, also left the company.
Smith founded Vice with Suroosh Alvi and Gavin McInnes in 1994 as a magazine. He sold out his core vision of Vice in the coming years just so he could buy (and then sell) the legendary Beverly Hills Cop mansion for $50 million. In 2008, McInnes left Vice in 2008 and went on to found the Proud Boys. He has yet to sell out.
News of Vice’s coming bankruptcy reached as far away as El Salvador, whose president Nayib Bukele had a laconic comment.
END
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report May 2, 2023 Issue 6981 | Independent View of the News |
| @KobeissiLetter: You can’t make this up: JP Morgan just said its acquisition of First Republic will generate a one-time gain of $2.6 billion. They also expect over $500 million in profit per year from the acquisition. On top of this, the FDIC is covering $13 billion in losses and providing $50 billion in financing. This is all while JP Morgan is technically not allowed to acquire a deposit accepting bank due to regulations. You’re witnessing the product of a flawed system. It’s clear why no one wanted to buy First Republic until it collapsed. Large banks know that collapsed banks come with perks and shared losses by the FDIC. FDIC needed help and JP Morgan is making billions off it. WSJ: The Fed Failed but Wants More Power As expected, Michael Barr blames Congress and his predecessor for Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. An iron law of the modern administrative state is that the solution to regulatory failure is always to give regulators more power. That’s the key to understanding Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s autopsy, released Friday, of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) failure. The report offers a token mea culpa for not having responded fast enough to troubles at the bank. But that’s mainly a deflection from the report’s main purpose, which is to protect the Fed and bolster the Biden Administration’s financial regulatory agenda. It concedes that examiners at the San Francisco Fed flagged numerous problems at SVB well before its failure, but it says they were handcuffed by higher-ups in Washington and a 2018 law that eased regulations on mid-sized banks… SVB seems to have been more focused on complying with financial regulation than prudently managing its balance-sheet risks. When regulators mess up, the response from regulators is always to call for more regulation. See the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which was supposed to prevent big bank failures. Wouldn’t it be nice if regulators took responsibility for their failures for a change? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-absolves-itself-silicon-valley-bank-michael-barr-congress-federal-reserve-failure-2c675ba1 The three banks that have failed this year are bigger than the 25 that crumbled in 2008 holding a total of $532 BILLION in assets –First Republic Bank today became the third major US bank to fail this year; It joins Silicon Valley Bank and Signature bank, and increases industry concerns https://trib.al/cUG8gD5 US Economic Data released on MondayApril S&P Global US Mfg PMI 50.2, 50.4 expected and priorApril ISM Mfg 47.1, 46.8 expected, 46.3 prior; Prices Paid 53.2, 49 exp, 49.2 prior; Employment 50.2, 46.9 prior, New Orders 45.7, prior 44.3March Construction Spending +0.3%, +0.1% expected, prior revised to -0.3% from -0.1% Bonds sank as much as 2 14/32 on the FRC bailout. Stock indices, ex-Nasdaq, rallied in the morning. ESMs vacillated between modest gains and losses after the Nikkei opened; but they broke lower at 18:35 ET. ESMs bottomed at 20:16 ET. They rallied steadily higher until they broke down at 3:30 ET. ESMs and stocks hit daily lows six minutes before the NYSE opened at 9:30 ET. After an 18-handle burst, ESMs began to oscillate in a wide range. After 10:48 ET, a modest rally took ESMs and stocks to minor new highs at 11:00 ET. ESMs and stocks then sank into the European close. Just 7 minutes before the 11:30 ET European close, some juiced ESMs. ESMs and stocks then soared until they created their daily highs at 12:36 ET. ESMs then rolled over. After the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESMs tumbled; the bottom appeared at 14:37 ET. It was time for the late upward manipulation, which was abetted by expectations of institutional buying near or on the NYSE close to start the month of May. Alas, the rally ended at 15:00 ET – and it was modest. ESMs and stocks gyrated wildly while trading sideways until the close. Crowding-Out. The Fed May be Killing the Private Sector to Save Government. Curbing inflation requires a significant reduction in the money supply and aggregate demand. However, if government deficit spending is left untouched, the entire burden of normalizing monetary policy will fall on families and businesses… Rate hikes have two direct negative effects on the economy if the government does not reduce its deficit spending spree. They mean higher taxes and a massive crowding out of available credit. The government deficit is always going to be financed, even if it is at higher rates, but this also means less credit for businesses and families… https://www.dlacalle.com/en/crowding-out-the-fed-may-be-killing-the-private-sector-to-save-government/ CH Robinson Worldwide jumped as much as 3.5% because Stifel hiked its target price to 97 from 92. IBM to pause hiring in plan to replace 7,800 jobs with AI (in coming years) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ibm-to-pause-hiring-in-plan-to-replace-7-800-jobs-with-ai-bloomberg-news/ar-AA1aBK2r Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on the FRC bailout and upward bias to start May The DJTA rallied sharply on a CHRW tout Negative aspects of previous session Fangs were soft due to Amazon’s cloud disappointment Bonds got clobbered Stocks had two steep declines during NYSE trading April ISM Prices Paid had a bigger increase in inflation that expected Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the US regional banking crisis over or delayed? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4172.88 Previous session High/Low: 4186.92; 4164.12 Bernie Sanders Calls for Confiscation of Wealth Above $999 Million “Are you basically saying that once you get to $999 million, that the government should confiscate all the rest?” (CNN’s) Wallace asked. “Yeah, I think people can make it on $999 million,” Bernie responded… https://www.theepochtimes.com/bernie-sanders-calls-for-confiscation-of-wealth-above-999-million_5232590.html Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US could run out of cash by June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit. She implored Congress to act. The House passed a bill that raises the US debt limit by $1.5T and cuts spending by $4.8T over 10 years. Schumer and Biden excoriated the bill but have not presented their own bill because as soon as they do, it will infuriate and alienate a sizable chunk of American voters. Biden Asks Congressional Leaders to May 9 Meeting on Debt Limit – BBG Biden Loses Debt-Limit Leverage as Business Pushes for Talks – BBG U.S. military is tracking another balloon – NBC News Today – The window for a rally is open until the FOMC Communique and/or Powell’s presser on Wednesday. Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. Trading over this earnings season has been rather lethargic. The volume should be even thinner on the vigil for Fed Day. ESMs are -8.50 at 20:30 ET. Expected economic data: March JOLTS Job Openings 9.725m; March Factory Orders 1.3% m/m; March Durable Goods 3.2% m/m, ex-Trans 0.3%, Nondefense ex-Air -0.4%; April Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.0m; 2-day FOMC Meeting begins Expected earnings: DD .80, PFE .97, MPC 5.62, ETN 1.78, CMI 4.73, MAR 1.85, ITW 2.22, F .41, PRU 2.94, CLX 1.21, AMD .57 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4035; 100-day MA: 4005; 150-day MA: 3943; 200-day MA: 3967 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,072; 100-day MA: 33,349; 150-day MA: 32,850; 200-day MA: 32,678 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3913.65 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4069.77 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4151.31 triggers a sell signal How Jill Biden helped Joe get to yes on running for reelection at 80 – Politico Privately, the first lady encouraged (Euphemism alert!) her husband to run again… as she’s relishing her role, hanging out at the Super Bowl and the women’s Final Four, and actively posting on social media… there’s nothing that secret about the role she is playing… https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/jill-biden-joe-biden-reelection-00093726 @realJoelFischer: God help us. He’s running for a second term. (video) https://twitter.com/realJoelFischer/status/1653133795069919232 Victor David Hanson: The Crazy Contours of the Crazier 2024 Election- For the Left, having virtually no president at all certainly has its advantages. With no one in charge, everyone is in charge. Joe Biden has no choice but to focus on a purely negative message… There will be no Democratic primary debates, even if support for Robert Kennedy, Jr. surges to 25-30 percent of the Democratic electorate… Biden is failing at a geometric rate of enfeeblement and would likely not be able to rest up, medicate, and prep full-time to salvage the debates as he did as a candidate in the attenuated debate series of 2020. His handlers do not wish to tempt fate a third time… Still, despite the downsides, there are various reasons that explain why the Left unites behind the unpopular and flawed Biden, who is perhaps the least physically able, oldest, and most corrupt president in modern history. One, the hard Left has learned that despite the obvious liability of a non-compos-mentis president, the advantages of outsourcing the main decision-making of his presidency to the hard Left… A Jacobin crowd, whose agenda does not poll 50 percent on any issue, is now running the country…for the Left having no president at all certainly has its advantages… When Trump currently cuts commercials focusing on the Biden catastrophic record, when he gives televised interviews in which he outlines his solutions to the current self-created messes, and when he omits reference to the “stop-the-steal” past and focuses on 2024, he wins. And when he detours from comparing his record and agenda to Biden’s and instead replays all the terrible injustices done him (and there were plenty) and goes full bore into ad hominem personal attacks against DeSantis and his sterling record in Florida, he loses the very constituencies he and other Republicans need to win—suburbanites, independents, Democrats terrified of cancel culture, and a few stray rhinos embarrassed by their past nihilistic votes for Biden… the Left viscerally hates Trump more than it despises DeSantis… If we hit full stagflation with more bank collapses, higher interest, soaring energy prices, and a scary expansion of the slugfest in Ukraine, then all the Democratic strategies in the world will not prevent Biden’s Cartesque fate… https://amgreatness.com/2023/04/30/the-crazy-contours-of-the-crazier-2024-election/ In Court, Hunter Biden Cries Poor to Reduce Child Support Payments President’s son says he slept ‘on cot’ in father’s room in Dublin, had his Porsche repossessed The president’s son, who made millions of dollars off deals and cushy board positions for foreign companies in the past decade, now has no salary, had his Porsche repossessed, and was forced to sleep on a cot in his father’s room during a recent presidential trip to Dublin, Biden’s lawyers told the court. He has also stooped to taking financial support from a generous friend, Hollywood lawyer Kevin Morris, the court heard on Monday… Lowell said Biden is paying Lunden Alexis Roberts $20,000 per month in child support under an agreement they reached in 2020, shortly after President Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign… During the hearing, Biden’s lawyers said his only income is a percentage of his art sales from a New York gallery and that Biden is unable to provide a list of who has bought his paintings and how much they are worth. Lowell said Biden doesn’t know the names of any of the buyers under an agreement with the gallery, which is intended to avoid political influence-peddling… https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/in-court-hunter-biden-cries-poor-in-fight-to-reduce-child-support-payments/ Hunter Biden judge says first son’s lawyers ‘abused’ redaction ability Judge Holly Meyer rebuked the 53-year-old’s legal team during the two-hour proceedings, saying they wrongly concealed details of filings that had already been submitted to the court as part of the ongoing legal saga… Meanwhile, Roberts’ lawyers have rejected Hunter’s claims of financial hardship, saying in court filings last week that he is actually “living lavishly.” “He travels the world on the safest and most comfortable airplane in existence — Air Force One,” Lancaster wrote. “He also has some of the most expensive attorneys on planet Earth.” https://trib.al/AqaXwjB | |
GREG HUNTER
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