MAY 3/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $13.90 TO $2028.20
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP 11 CENTS AT $25.42
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2030.65
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.49
Bitcoin morning price:, $28,496 DOWN 133 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,790 DOWN 179 dollars
Platinum price closing $1058.00 DOWN $8.80
Palladium price; $1431.70 DOWN $14.200
“Our government… teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” … Louis D Brandeis (former Supreme Court Justice)
GO GATA!
TODAY WE HAD ANOTHER GREAT DAY FOR GOLD AND SILVER. LET US SEE HOW THE WEEK PLAYS OUT!! THE BANKERS ARE HAVING A TOUGHER TIME MANIPULATING OUR TWO PRECIOUS METALS.
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,765.51 UP 18.80 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,765.51*) ALL TIME HIGH HIT TODAY
BRITISH GOLD: 1617.55 UP 1.838 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1837,04 UP 6,19 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,014.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/02/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 05/04/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 214
323 C HSBC 200
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 309
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 42
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 889
661 C JP MORGAN 40 256
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 18
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
880 H CITIGROUP 1500
905 C ADM 6
TOTAL: 1,744 1,744
MONTH TO DATE: 2,992
JPMorgan stopped 256/1744 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 1744 NOTICES FOR 174,000 OZ or 5.4245 TONNES
total notices so far: 2992 contracts for 299,200 oz (9.3069 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1687 for 8,435,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $13.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///.A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV???//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.070 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 743 CONTRACTS TO 142,538 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.34). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1265 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 522 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 195,000 OZ9E.FP.’S LOWER THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+ 0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK:THUS TOTAL OF 12.740 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –67 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 1410 contracts: OR 7.050 MILLION OZ . (470 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 7.050 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 7.050 MILLION OZ/INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 743 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 522 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 195,000 OZ (DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL STANDING 12.740 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1265 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 12,270 CONTRACTS TO 493,804 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 735 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 12,270 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $32.70 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A MONSTROUS 180,100 OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $32.70 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 17,232 OI CONTRACTS (53.598 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4762 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 493,804
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,232 CONTRACTS WITH 12,270 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4962 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,232 CONTRACTS OR 53.598 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4962 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (12,270 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,270 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP OF 180,100 OZ // NEW STANDING: 9.9782 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 8823 CONTRACTS OR 882,300 OZ OR 27.443 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2941 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 27.443 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 27.443/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.771% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 27.443 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 743 CONTRACTS OI TO 142,538 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 522 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 522 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 522 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 743 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 522 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1265 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 6.325 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.34 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 234.65 POINTS OR 1.18% /The Nikkei closed UP 34,77 PTS OR 0.12% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.95 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9209 /Oil UP TO 69.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.23 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 12,270 CONTRACTS UP TO 493,804 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.70 ON TUESDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4962 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4962 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4962 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 17,232 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4962 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,270 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.70. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (4.3763) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 9.9782 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $32.70) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 17,232 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 53.598 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S RECORD SETTING QUEUE JUMP OF 180,100 oz (5.601 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 9.9782 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $32.70
WE HAD +REMOVED 735 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,232 CONTRACTS OR 1,723,200 OZ OR 53.598 TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 197,424 fair//
final gold volumes/yesterday 264,647 fair
//MAY 3/ MAY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 707.322 oz 22 KILOBARS Int Delaware . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 21,798.378 OZ Brinks 678 kilobars |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 160,755.000 Oz JPM 5,000 kilobars |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1744 notice(s) 174400 OZ 5.4245 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 216 contracts 21,600 oz 0.6718 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2992 notices 299,200 OZ 9.3069 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Int. Delaware: 707.322 oz (22 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 707.322 oz
Adjustments;
ii) customer to dealer Manfra: 23,148.730 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 1960 contracts having GAINED 1759 contracts. We had 42 contracts filed
on TUESDAY, so we gained a monstrous 1801 contracts or an additional 180,100 oz (5.6 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.
This is the highest ever recorded queue jump in comex history surpassing last year’s 5.3 tonne queue jump.
June GAINED 4350 contracts UP to 378.608 contracts.
July added 147 contracts to stand at 624 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 4724 contracts up to 67,443 contracts
We had 1744 contracts filed for today representing 174,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 40 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1744 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 256 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2,992 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY 1960 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1744 x 100 oz per contract equals 320,800 OZ OR 9.9782 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2992 x 100 oz)+1960 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1744)x 100 oz} which equals 320,800 oz standing OR 9.9782 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 9.9782 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,713,349.037 OZ 53.29 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,591,465.739OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,381,513,895 (385,11 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,137,951.844 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,668,164 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 331.824 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 3//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 337,478.190 oz Brinks CNT Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 861 contracts (4,305,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1687 Contracts (8,435,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139,607 million oz/269.687 million =51.76% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of Brinks 315,383,930 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 19,991.69 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 2102,570 oz
Total withdrawals; 337,478.190 oz
adjustments: 1 dealer to customer JPMorgan 717,302.930oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 32.487 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 269.687 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 861 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 52 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 13 CONTRACTS FILED
ON TUESDAY, SO WE LOST 39 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 195,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY
ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS, FOR THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW, THESE GUYS WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON AS NO SILVER COULD BE FOUND OVER HERE..
.JUNE HAD A 1 CONTRACT GAIN TO 872
JULY HAD A 523 CONTRACT GAIN TO 121,227 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for nil oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 45,226 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 69,956 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1687 x 5,000 oz = 8,435,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(861) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 1687 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (861) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 12.740 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 928.34 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 467.070 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
The US Banking System Is Sound?
A must read
(Michael Maharrey/SchiffGold)
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Michael Maharrey via SChiffGold.com,
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen keeps insisting that the banking system is “sound.”
Is it though? Because it doesn’t look particularly sound.
In fact, we just witnessed the second-largest US bank failure ever.
Government regulators seized control of First Republic Bank on May 1 and sold the majority of the bank’s operations to JP Morgan Chase. It was the third major bank failure this year and the biggest bank to collapse since the 2008 financial crisis. It was the second-largest bank by assets to fail in US history.
First Republic went under after it revealed $100 billion in deposit losses in the first quarter.
The beleaguered bank has been struggling for a while. It was initially bailed out back in March with $30 billion in deposits from several large banks, including JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. The bank also borrowed heavily from the Federal Reserve’s bank bailout program. First Republic shares tumbled 75% last week before the FDIC stepped in.
While JP Morgan is taking over First Republic’s business, the FDIC will provide “shared-loss agreements.” As the FDIC website explains it, “the FDIC absorbs a portion of the loss on a specified pool of assets sold through the resolution of a failing bank – in effect sharing the loss with the purchaser of the failing bank.”
If we are to believe the mainstream narrative, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank were isolated events and do not reflect a broader problem in the banking system. But as we have reported, these bank failures are just the tip of the iceberg. A report by the Wall Street Journal cites a study from Stanford and Columbia Universities that found 186 US banks are in distress.
And as Manuel Garcia Gojon pointed out in an article published by the Mises Wire, it’s not just the small and medium-sized banks. Charles Schwab and other big banks may also be insolvent.
One of the biggest problems facing banks is the rapid devaluation of their bond portfolios.
Banks were incentivized to load up on high-priced, low-yield bonds thinking that the Fed would keep interest rates low forever. As the Fed jacked up interest rates to fight price inflation, it decimated the bond market. (Bond prices and interest rates are inversely correlated. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall.) With interest rates rising so quickly, banks have not been able to adjust their bond holdings. As a result, many banks have become undercapitalized on paper as the value of the bond portfolios shrinks. The banking sector was buried under some $620 billion in unrealized losses on securities at the end of last year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
As the Washington Post reported, this means banks would face unprecedented losses if they were forced to liquidate their bond portfolios. In fact, that is exactly what doomed Silicon Valley Bank. The plan was to sell the longer-term, lower-interest-rate bonds and reinvest the money into shorter-duration bonds with a higher yield. Instead, the sale dented the bank’s balance sheet and caused worried depositors to pull funds out of the bank.
According to the Post, the total capital buffer in the US banking system totals $2.2 trillion. Meanwhile, total unrealized losses in the system based on a pair of academic papers is between $1.7 and $2 trillion.
Gojon explains how the big banks have dealt with this problem
Many big banks in the United States have substantially increased their use of an accounting technique that allows them to avoid marking certain assets at their current market value, instead using the face value in their balance sheet calculations. This accounting technique consists of announcing that they intend to hold such assets to maturity.”
In other words, this accounting trick makes the bank look far more solvent than it actually is.
At the end of 2022, Charles Schwab had the largest amount of assets marked as “held to maturity” relative to capital. According to data cited by Gojon, Schwab had over $173 billion in assets marked as “held to maturity,” while its capital (assets minus liabilities) stood at under $37 billion. At that time, the difference between the market value and face value of assets held to maturity was over $14 billion.
If the accounting technique had not been used the capital would have stood at around $23 billion. This amount is under half the $56 billion Charles Schwab had in capital at the end of 2021. This is also under 15 percent of the amount of assets held to maturity, under 10 percent of securities, and under 5 percent of total assets. An asset ten years from maturity is reduced in present value by 15 percent with a 3 percent increase in the interest rate. An asset twenty years from maturity is reduced in present value by 15 percent with a 1.5 percent increase in the interest rate.”
Other banks that may be close to effective insolvency include the Bank of Hawaii and the Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR). According to Gojon, the Bank of Hawaii, BPPR, and Charles Schwab have lost between one-third and one-half of their market capitalization over the last month.
Gojon concedes that it’s hard to know how this will play out, but he said there is clearly a large amount of risk in the banking system.
It is difficult to say with certainty whether they are indeed secretly close to insolvency as they may have some form of insurance that could absorb some of the impact from a loss of value in their assets, but if this were the case it is not clear why they would need to employ this questionable accounting technique so heavily. The risk of insolvency is currently the highest it’s been in over a decade.”
Gojon said the Fed can solve liquidity problems even as it continues to raise interest rates to fight inflation. That’s the whole point of the bank bailout program. But he said the Fed can’t fix solvency problems without pivoting to looser monetary policy or through more blatant bank bailouts. Those scenarios would both raise inflation expectations.
The bottom line is that despite Janet Yellen’s constant assurances, the banking system is not sound. It is a house of cards that could fall down at any time.
end
Peter Schiff: The Fed Has Screwed Up Everything That Is A Function Of Interest Rates
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 10:20 AM
The failure of First Republic Bank reveals that the banking system isn’t nearly as sound as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would have us believe. But as Peter explained in a recent podcast, it’s not just the banking system that’s messed up. The Fed has screwed up everything that is a function of interest rates by keeping rates at zero for so long.
First Republic was the third major bank failure this year and the biggest bank to collapse since the 2008 financial crisis. It was the second-largest bank by assets to fail in US history. Peter said the whole banking system is a house of cards that is now collapsing one card at a time.
We’re still in the early days of the 2023 financial crisis.”
Of course, the mainstream media remains reluctant to call it a financial crisis. But if not, what is it?
Banks keep failing. Aren’t banks financial institutions? But no, they don’t want to do it because they don’t want to evoke the memory of 2008. They don’t want anyone to think that what we’re experiencing is another 2008. Now, in a way they’re right, because it’s not another 2008. It’s going to be way worse than 2008. But it is a financial crisis.”
And Peter said it’s not just banks.
The Fed screwed up everything that is a function of interest rates. Anything that is rate-sensitive is all screwed up because rates were so low for so long.”
This includes the auto market and the housing market.
Fed monetary policy also facilitated massive government budget deficits.
How are we able to sustain a $31.7 trillion national debt? It’s because interest rates were so low. If the Federal Reserve had not kept interest rates at zero for so long, had interest rates reflected the appropriate price of money that a free market would set, there is no way the government could have gotten away with this. Government could not be this big. Government could not have spent all this money because it couldn’t have afforded to pay the interest on the debt.”
Now that the Fed has let rates go up, everything that was built on a foundation of zero percent crashes – including the government.
The government is going to come crashing down if the Fed holds the line on fighting inflation. … We can’t have these deficits and normal interest rates to fight inflation. So, the government is going to be forced to downsize dramatically, make big cuts in government spending, if the Fed is going to continue to fight inflation and keep rates up, which I don’t think it’s going to do.”
Peter said he thinks the Fed is going to reverse course to keep banks from failing, stop the auto industry from imploding, save the housing market, and prop up the government.
And then there is corporate America, which has also levered up thanks to easy money.
What’s going to happen over the next year or two as all this cheap money that they borrowed to buy back their overpriced stock comes due? What about all of the junk bonds that are out there?”
We’re already starting to see bankruptcies. Bed Bath and Beyond recently filed Chapter 11. In fact, there have been 70 major bankruptcies already in 2023. It’s the third-worst start to a year ever. That compares with 71 bankruptcies in the early part of 2020 when governments shut down the economy for COVID. The only other year that was worse was 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession.
In this podcast, Peter also talks about the first quarter GDP data, noting that economic growth is slowing down even as inflation is picking up speed.
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDSJOHN RUBINO
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS://WALL STREET ON PARADE
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: May 3, 2023
President Joe Biden is putting the national security of the United States at risk by not suspending the short-selling of federally-insured banks. Concerns over the safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system could cause money flight out of the U.S., impacting the strength of the U.S. dollar and a loss of confidence by our foreign allies.
This is also a matter that impacts the financial lives of every American, because every American – rich, poor or middle class – will suffer the consequences in terms of ability to access bank credit and higher fees on that credit as a result of rebuilding the rapidly depleting federal Deposit Insurance Fund that protects bank deposits.
The second, third and fourth largest bank failures in the history of the U.S. have now occurred in the span of seven weeks (First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, respectively) with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) taking big hits in each case to its Deposit Insurance Fund.
At the time of First Republic Bank’s failure on Monday (with JPMorgan Chase given a very sweet deal by the FDIC to buy its underwater assets and take over the deposits that hadn’t yet fled), it was one of the most heavily shorted bank stocks with one-third of its outstanding shares shorted as of one week before it failed, according to a report from Reuters.
First Republic Bank was not a small bank. At the time of its demise, it had $207.5 billion in assets. According to a statement from the FDIC on Monday, it “estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion. This is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.”
The FDIC estimated the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank to be $20 billion, and the cost to the DIF in the failure of Signature Bank to be $2.5 billion.
All of these FDIC estimates seem very optimistic but even if they are accurate, that’s a combined hit thus far of $35.5 billion to a Deposit Insurance Fund that had just $128.2 billion as of December 31, 2022.
On April 18 – prior to the failure of First Republic Bank – the FDIC released the following statement:
“The Federal Deposit Insurance Act (FDI Act) requires that the FDIC’s Board of Directors adopt a restoration plan when the Fund’s reserves fall below 1.35 percent of all insured deposits held in FDIC-insured financial institutions. Extraordinary deposit growth during the first and second quarters of 2020 caused the Fund’s reserve ratio to decline below this statutory minimum. On September 15, 2020, the FDIC established a plan to restore the Fund’s reserves to at least 1.35 percent by September 30, 2028, while maintaining the assessment rate schedule in place at the time.”
In short, assessments on banks to restore the Deposit Insurance Fund are going to be going up as a result of these bank failures and attendant losses – which mean that banks are going to be passing those increased costs along to their customers. If more banks fail, those costs will rise exponentially, putting aside the more critical issue of loss of confidence in the U.S. banking system.
This is not some abstract theory. The newest target of the short sellers is PacWest Bancorp (ticker PACW). According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, as of March 31, 20.6 percent of PacWest’s shares outstanding were sold short, making it the third largest shorted bank stock at that point. (The bank stock with the largest percentage of shares shorted on March 31 was Silvergate Bank, which became an easy target of short sellers because it had entangled itself with crypto companies, including Sam Bankman-Fried’s house of frauds, FTX and Alameda Research. Silvergate wound itself down voluntarily by the end of the first quarter. The second largest short position in a bank as of March 31 was in First Republic Bank, which failed on Monday.)
PacWest Bancorp is showing similar distress. PacWest’s stock has lost 71 percent year-to-date. On Monday and Tuesday of this week, the stock has gone from a closing price of $10.15 on Friday to $6.55 at the close on Tuesday – a stunning collapse of 35 percent in just two trading sessions.
Other banks that are targets of short sellers that have seen outsized year-to-date losses in share price include Western Alliance, Comerica, Zions Bank, Republic First Bancorp (no relation to First Republic Bank other than similarity of its name, which may be why short sellers have piled on). Those stocks are down anywhere from 45 to 60 percent year-to-date versus a decline of 27 percent in the regional bank index (ticker KRX). See chart above.
The longer President Biden waits to sign an executive order suspending short sales in federally-insured banks, the faster the contagion will spread to other banks.
Editor’s Note: We believe that, in general, short sellers perform a critical role in U.S. markets – calling attention to corporate corruption and fraud that has been missed by regulators and the media. But the rapidly deteriorating condition of U.S. banks is a function of the unprecedented span of time that the Fed kept interest rates at the zero interest level, forcing banks to make fixed-rate mortgage loans at 3, 4 and 5 percent interest in order to remain competitive. Those loans and their related mortgage-backed securities are now underwater as a result of the Fed raising rates faster than at any time in the last 40 years. Exceptional times call for exceptional actions. President Biden needs to step up to the plate
END
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, advocate of a free gold market, seeks West Virginia Senate seat
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-05-03 03:14Section: Daily Dispatches
Race for West Virginia U.S. Senate seat heating up
From WOWK-TV, Huntington, West Virginia
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
CHARLESTON, W. Va. — The race for a contested U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia is already getting heated. It also looks to get very expensive.
It is a contested Republican primary, and that usually means a lot of sharp elbows and advertising money being spent.
“Liberal Jim Justice just can’t be trusted,” says an attack ad produced for the U.S. Senate campaign of U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia.
The Mooney for Senate campaign is running critical ads against his Republican primary opponent, Gov. Jim Justice.
Justice was first elected as a Democrat and seven months into his first term switched to the Republican Party.
While Justice says he has a conservative record, Mooney claims that he is the more conservative of the two candidates.
“We’ll debate those issues as we go along. I’m the only candidate, I believe, with an A-plus rating from the National Rifle Association.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.wowktv.com/news/west-virginia/race-for-west-virginia-us-senate-seat-heating-up
end
A great read: Evans-Pritchard correctly states that over half of the USA banks may be insolvent
(zerohedge)
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Half of U.S. banks may be insolvent and this is how a credit crunch begins
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-05-03 00:10Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
The twin crashes in U.S. commercial real estate and the U.S. bond market have collided with $9 trillion uninsured deposits in the American banking system. In the cyber age such deposits can vanish in an afternoon.
The second and third biggest bank failures in U.S. history have followed in quick succession. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve would like us to believe that they are “idiosyncratic.” That is a dangerous evasion
Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under U.S. accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses.
“It’s spooky. Thousands of banks are under water,” said Professor Amit Seru, a banking expert at Stanford University. “Let’s not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the U.S. banking system is potentially insolvent.”
The full shock of monetary tightening by the Fed has yet to hit. A great edifice of debt faces a refinancing cliff-edge over the next six quarters. Only then will we learn whether the U.S. financial system can safely deflate the excess leverage induced by extreme monetary stimulus during the pandemic. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
END
The insolvencies of over 50% of the banks and the lousy JOLTS reports propels gold/silver
(zerohedge)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex gold JOLTed again
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-05-03 00:00Section: Daily Dispatches
10:58a ICT Wednesday, May 3, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Writing at Sprott Money, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report says the latest U.S. jobs report’s indication of recession and the continued insolvencies of U.S. banks support expectations that Federal Reserve interest rate increases will be reversed and that the monetary metals will rise.
Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Gold JOLTed Again” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/comex-gold-jolted-again-may-02-2023
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: RICE
Huge global rice shortage looms!
(zerohedge)
Global Rice Shortage Looms, Set To Be The Biggest In Decades
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Rice is the primary food source for over half of the global population, especially in emerging markets, where it plays a crucial role in feeding people. Last year, we highlighted the potential for a severe global rice shortage. A new report reveals that rice production this year could be at its lowest in decades.
A report by Fitch Solutions forecasts this year’s global rice production will log its biggest shortfall in two decades. The deficit will be a major headache for countries relying on grain imports.
“At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart told CNBC.
Sliding rice production in China, the US, and Europe is already causing grain prices to increase for 3.5 billion people, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region — this region of the world accounts for 90% of the world’s rice consumption.
“Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households,” Hart said.
Hart said this year’s global shortfall would be around 8.7 million tons, the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004 of 18.6 million.
As a result of tightening global supplies, rough rice futures trading on the CBoT recently peaked at $18 per cwt, the highest level since September 2008. Cwt is a unit of measurement for certain commodities such as rice.
CNBC provides a breakdown of why rice supplies are strained.
There’s a short supply of rice as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as bad weather in rice-producing economies like China and Pakistan.
In the second half of last year, swaths of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods.
The accumulated rainfall in the country’s Guangxi and Guangdong province, China’s major hubs of rice production, was the second highest in at least 20 years, according to agriculture analytics company Gro Intelligence.
Similarly, Pakistan — which represents 7.6% of global rice trade — saw annual production plunge 31% year-on-year due to severe flooding last year, said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), labeling the impact as “even worse than initially expected.”
The shortfall is partly due to result of “an annual deterioration in the Mainland Chinese harvest caused by intense heat and drought as well as the impact of severe flooding in Pakistan,” Hart pointed out.
Rice is a vulnerable crop, and has the highest probability of simultaneous crop loss during an El Nino event, according to a scientific study.
Recall in the late summer of 2022. We told readers:
- The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage
- “Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave
… and just recently.
The takeaway is that a tight global rice market will raise food inflation for major rice importers such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Africa. Elevated food inflation is dangerous for governments because it increases social instability risks.
end
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
We now know how JPMorgan received a $50 dollar loan to assist them in their takeover of First Republic Bank. Initially they stated that the loan must from the FDIC but they are not allowed to loan money. The answer came this morning, when the Treasury reported a massive $87 billion fall in their cash accounts. Thus the taxpayer loaned money to JPMorgan to bailout all the depositors of FRC. The problem now is the drop dead deadline for debt ceiling will now be May 15 or May 16. Again the Fed/Treasury lied when they stated that taxpayers will no longer bail out banks. Wrong!
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9209
SHANGHAI CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 236.65 PTS OR 1.18%
2. Nikkei closed UP 34.77 PTS OR 0.12%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.31 EURO RISES TO 1.1043 UP 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.415 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 135.56 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: XX// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.2345***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.123*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.299…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.057
3j Gold at $2015.70 silver at: 25.29 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 33 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.28//
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 135.56 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .415% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8887 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9812 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.412 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.698 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.974 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.48…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 11 BASIS PTS AT 3.6955
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Grind Higher Ahead Of Fed Hike Amid Continued Regional Bank Jitters, Oil Extends losses
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 08:11 AM
S&P 500 futures are marginally higher on the day despite renewed pre-market weakness from US regional banks and a continued plunge in crude, which sent WTI futures lower by more than 3% on the day and below $70 per barrel on demand worries as the global economy slows. Contracts on the S&P 500 edged 0.1% higher while those on the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% by 7:30 a.m. ET, bouncing from yesterday’s losses ahead of the Fed decision. Treasury yields are lower, as traders seek out havens, while the Bloomberg dollar index weakened as traders eye recession risks alongside a potential pause in interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, most metals, including gold, decline slightly.
In premarket trading, regional banking stocks including PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp tumbled in early trading, dropping as much as 12% while Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL US) fell 7.8%. before recovering most losses ahead of a Fed rate hike that will only make the deposit outflow from small banks worse. Meanwhile, AMD shares fell as much as 6.3% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker gave a tepid forecast for the current quarter as it wades through a severe PC slowdown. Analysts highlighted mixed results for the quarter, but noted that its server and PC businesses should rebound in the second half of the year. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Starbucks shares slid as much as 5% in US premarket trading after the coffee chain operator left guidance for the fiscal year 2023 unchanged. The move disappointed analysts, who called it a conservative stance given the strong second quarter and sales beat, and said it suggests growth will weaken in the second half of the year.
- Ford declined in postmarket trading after the company reiterated its full-year forecast despite strong first-quarter results, and flagged headwinds including economic uncertainty around the globe and higher industrywide customer incentives.
- Amcor shares dropped as much as 8.3% in US premarket trading, set to hit their lowest level since June 2020, after the packaging company cuts its adjusted EPS forecast for the full year, with analysts flagging weakness in volumes. Amcor’s shares also declined 9.5% in Sydney trading.
- Chegg (rose as much as 9.5% in premarket trading, as the online educational services company attempts to recoup some losses after posting its biggest intra-day drop on Tuesday.
- Match Group gained in extended trading, after the online dating company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. While the revenue forecast is below expectations, analysts note strength in the company’s Tinder business.
- Unisys shares jumped 12% in extended trading on Tuesday, after the IT services company reported first-quarter results that were stronger than expected.
- Paycom Software shares gained in extended trading after the human-capital-management software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. It also introduced a dividend.
As we previewed previously, the Fed is expected to deliver a 25 basis-point interest-rate increase and signal a pause in its aggressive tightening campaign. Watchers anticipate the central bank will stop raising rates as tighter lending conditions and signs of a slowing economy suggest inflation will cool more meaningfully in the months ahead. Fed-dated OIS currently prices in around 23bp of rate hike premium for the meeting, little change vs Tuesday close. Investors will assess impact of current banking sector jitters on future monetary policy, though with inflation stubbornly elevated, Powell is expected to stop short of assuring markets that a pause is a done deal — or that rate cuts are imminent
The US stock rally, supported by better-than-feared earnings and hopes for a less hawkish Fed, lost steam this week amid weak economic data and concerns about the banking sector. The selloff pushed the VIX Index toward 18 after the volatility gauge spent most of April near a 16 handle, while the VIX1D doubled yesterday from 10 to 20.
“When it comes to thinking about the potential for further hikes from here, I do think the Fed really wants to keep the door open specifically given the fact that the economy has been quite resilient,” said Madison Faller, global strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. But “whether the last hike is today or even in June, we’re nearing the end of the Fed tightening cycle.”
In Europe, stocks are higher as they look to bounce back from their sharpest fall in five weeks on Tuesday. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% led by defensive sectors such as consumer products, miners and food and beverages the strongest-performing sectors while energy names have struggled as oil prices decline. Italian lenders rose on Wednesday, outperforming banks in the rest of the region, after UniCredit raised its full-year profit target and said it will boost shareholder payouts. UniCredit jumped as much as 6.9%, with Intesa Sanpaolo (+2.1%), FinecoBank (+2.1%) and Banco BPM (+1.8%) also among the top performers on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, which was down 0.2% as of 12:33 p.m. in Milan. Here are all the most notable European mover:
- Colruyt shares rise as much as 18% with analysts saying the guidance raise from the Belgian retailer is encouragingly driven by cost savings and that this could drive a reassessment of its outlook
- Straumann gains as much as 2.1% after the Swiss dental equipment group’s first-quarter earnings arrived in line with expectations. Analysts said strength in the EMEA market offset weakness in APAC
- Auto1 rises as much as 7%, withCiti saying the used-car trading platform’s profitability metrics beat estimates in the first quarter, boosting confidence for adjusted Ebitda to break even before year end
- Deutsche Post advances 2.9% to 2022 highs after the logistics firm reported 1Q Ebit which beat the average analyst estimate and confirmed the forecast published in its 2022 annual report
- Orsted shares gain as much as 1.6% after Danish wind farm operator’s wind operations beat 1Q expectations, offsetting a miss in its gas marketing arm, which analysts said is a high-quality mix
- Signify shares drop as much as 11%, the most intraday since July, after 1Q comparable sales missed estimates due to persistent weakness in its consumer and indoor professional businesses
- Porsche falls as much as 2.8% in Frankfurt after the sports-car brand reported first-quarter operating profit that missed analyst estimates. Jefferies says first-quarter earnings are “a tad weak”
- Stellantis falls 2.4% as the carmaker’s weakness in Europe and slightly lower volumes offset an overall revenue beat. Morgan Stanley noted that rising inventory levels could threaten further upside
- Haleon shares fall as much as 4.3% after a Financial Times report that drugmaker Pfizer plans to start selling its stake within months overshadowed the consumer-health company’s 1Q results
- Lufthansa falls as much as 6.5% after the airline reported 1Q earnings that analysts said were below estimates. Bernstein attributed the miss to a softer performance in the carrier’s cargo business
Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark headed for its first decline in five sessions, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares leading losses ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6% in broad-based declines, following the selloff on Wall Street as worries about the financial sector amplified risk aversion ahead of the Fed. Energy stocks were among the biggest losers in the region after oil prices collapsed on Tuesday following softening US employment data that added to recession concerns. Benchmarks in Hong Kong led the region lower, with doubts remaining over the pace of China’s economic recovery.
“So far, the guidance hasn’t shown much improvement” in the first-quarter earnings season, said Ken Peng, head of Asia Pacific investment strategy at Citi Global Wealth Investments. “The continued geopolitical concerns are likely to be with us for quite some time and the immediate sharp recovery from exiting the lockdowns is behind us already,” he added. As the results season in Asia continues, investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s commentary and interest-rate move to assess any further impact to corporate profits. Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike this week, followed by a pause in its aggressive hiking campaign. The onshore China market will reopen Thursday, while Japan’s will resume trading on Monday.
Australian stocks extended their recent rout: the commodity-heavy S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1% to close at 7,197.40, extending losses for second session as banks and mining shares slumped. The drop comes ahead of a Federal Reserve decision where policymakers are expected to add to their rate-hike cycle.
Stocks in India declined in line with most Asian peers ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Index-heavy Reliance Industries and software exporter Tata Consultancy were among key drags on the benchmark gauge, which snapped its eight-day long run of advances. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 61,193.30 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 11 rose, while 19 fell. Stocks of government-controlled firms were outperformers as those companies benefit from government’s spending on infrastructure. Nifty PSE Index, a gauge of state-run enterprises, surged to its all-time high since Jan. 1995 debut.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index is down 0.3% while the Japanese yen and Swiss franc sit atop the G-10 intraday rankings; the USDJPY falls as much as 0.8% to 135.53 after hitting a multi-month high (Tokyo markets are closed for a public holiday). EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.1045; GBP/USD up 0.5% at 1.2524, while AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6664; NZD/USD up 0.4%, after advancing as much as 0.7% to 0.6250, the highest since Apr. 14 on bets the central bank will tighten policy following better-than-expected employment data.
Investors will scrutinise the Fed’s policy statement and comments to see if Powell suggests that more rate rises may be possible even as the US banking sector has come under pressure from dramatic tightening over the past year. “Overall, we lean toward USD lower today, but suspect price action will continue to be choppy,” said Erik Nelson, FX strategist at Wells Fargo. “Powell will be walking a fine line, and probably wants to err on the side of caution given fragility of banking sector sentiment and cracks appearing in the labor market.” While markets are pricing in the possibility that the Fed will start cutting rates later in the year, Powell is unlikely to validate those expectations yet, Nelson said, adding that the dollar would likely avoid a deep selloff later in the day as a result.
In rates, treasuries advanced during London session and broadly held gains into early US, following gains in bunds while US regional bank stocks fall pre-market. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 10-year around 3.40%, slightly lagging early bund gains over London session. Today’s 830am refunding announcement of next week’s auction sizes and projected sizes for other sales during the May-July period is expected to include no changes from last quarter as debt ceiling limits flexibility. Focal points of US session, following Treasury refunding announcement, include PMI and ISM services indexes during US morning and Fed rate decision at 2pm New York time.
In commodities, oil plunged for a second day, as Brent crude futures dropped 2% near $73.80 a barrel having dropped 5% on Tuesday while WTI slid below $70 a barrel in New York, falling to the lowest since March amid renewed anxiety over the financial stability of regional US lenders as well as signs of a cooling labor market. Spot gold is little changed around $2,016
Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include the ISM services index for April and the ADP’s report of private payrolls in April. And in Europe, we’ll get the Euro Area unemployment rate for March.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,140.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 462.64
- MXAP down 0.3% to 160.32
- MXAPJ down 0.7% to 511.25
- Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,157.95
- Topix down 0.1% to 2,075.53
- Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 19,699.16
- Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,323.28
- Sensex down 0.4% to 61,136.04
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,197.40
- Kospi down 0.9% to 2,501.40
- Brent Futures down 2.2% to $73.68/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,015.20
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 101.60
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.23%
- Euro up 0.3% to $1.1036
Top Overnight News
- Malaysia becomes the second country in as many days (after Australia yesterday) to surprise markets with a rate hike (the central bank increased the policy rate by 25bp to 3% while investors were looking for it to stay on hold. BBG
- The end of pandemic-era restrictions has unleashed a luxury spending rebound in China. Luxury spending in China is bouncing back even faster than the country’s overall economy. Retail sales of jewelry, gold and silver soared 37.4 percent in March from a year earlier, more than three times as fast as the rebound in overall retail sales, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. NYT
- Iran seized another oil tanker in Middle East waters in a move that risks flaming US tensions. The Navy said a Panama-flagged ship was taken by Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz, the second incident in a week. The US has demanded the release of a Chevron-chartered ship that was intercepted at the end of April. BBG
- A Russian spy network has acquired sensitive technology from EU companies to fuel Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine even after a US-led crackdown on the covert smuggling ring. The network — set up to procure goods ranging from microchips to ammunition — has managed to obtain machine tools from Germany and Finland despite US sanctions imposed in March 2022. FT
- The Treasury will outline its issuance plans for longer-term debt and they’re likely to contain no change to the slate of coupon-bearing auctions that kicks off each three-month cycle. Most analysts see the combined size of the three securities held at $96 billion. The department on Monday ramped up its borrowing estimate for April-June to $726 billion from the $278 billion predicted in late January. BBG
- The FOMC is likely to deliver a widely expected 25bp rate hike to 5-5.25% at its May meeting, but the focus will be on revisions to the forward guidance in its statement. We expect the Committee to signal that it anticipates pausing in June but retains a hawkish bias, stopping earlier than it initially envisioned because bank stress is likely to cause a tightening of credit. GIR
- Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan says he would be in favor of a “hawkish pause” whereby the Fed doesn’t hike rates today (but warns of potential further tightening down the road) as he thinks the regional bank situation is even worse than many imagine. BBG
- The White House may try and challenge the legality of the debt ceiling itself rather than negotiate a deal, a strategy that is certain to spook markets by injecting a whole new layer of uncertainty into the process. NYT
- House Democrats are pursuing a “discharge petition” option that could allow a debt ceiling bill to get to the floor without McCarthy’s consent. WSJ
- Washington’s ability to avert a catastrophic US debt default risks coming down to as few as seven days in May, underscoring the enormous threat of the partisan impasse. Between now and June 1 — the date by which the Treasury Department could run out of sufficient cash — President Joe Biden and members of the House and Senate are scheduled to be in town at the same time for the sum total of one week.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly negative following the losses on Wall St where the major indices declined ahead of the FOMC rate announcement amid regional bank jitters and with sentiment overnight also hampered by the key market closures in Japan and mainland China. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in energy after oil prices dropped more than 5% yesterday and with the mood not helped by mixed data releases including weak AIG Manufacturing and Construction figures. KOSPI declined as the broad risk aversion overshadowed the jump in sales by South Korea’s top automakers. Hang Seng was pressured by weakness in the energy and tech sectors, with participants bracing for the expected rate hike stateside and a similar move by the HKMA in lockstep with the Fed.
Top Asian News
- BoK Governor Rhee said it is premature to talk about a policy pivot, while he noted that it is time to wait and see as core inflation remains high and they are careful because of large FX volatility, according to a CNBC interview.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report said New Zealand’s financial system is well placed to handle the higher interest rate environment and international financial disruptions, while it added that global inflation is persisting at levels well above central banks’ policy targets.
European equities trade on the front-foot, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, in an attempt to claw back some of yesterday’s losses ahead of tomorrow’s ECB but before that, the FOMC later today. Equity sectors in Europe have a positive tilt with Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverage and Tobacco names top of the leaderboard, whilst Energy names are enduring another session of losses after yesterday’s marked underperformance. Stateside, futures are trading in modest positive territory after Tuesday’s pressure where the focus was on the regional banking sector, ES +0.1%. FBN’s Gasparino tweets “Sources say bank analysts and traders are digesting the JPMorgan and First Republic deal and valuing regional bank assets off of it at about 85 cents on the dollar. It’s why all the regionals have sold off today and why the regional bank crisis probably isn’t over.”
Top European News
- Le Maire Says French Retailers Agree to Extend Price Cuts
- Turkey Gets More Reprieve From Inflation With Dive Below 50%
- Forecasts Signal End of Profit Recession Is Near: Earnings Watch
- Ukraine Latest: Russian Drones Target Cities Including Kyiv
- Brent Oil Extends Drop Below $75 as Demand Concerns Escalate
FX
- DXY extends decline from recent peaks as clock ticks down to FOMC, index touches 101.500 from 101.920 high.
- Funding currencies relish low yield environment as Franc regains 0.8900+ status vs Dollar and Yen tests support into 135.50.
- Kiwi flies after upbeat NZ jobs data, with NZD/USD firm on the 0.6200 handle and the AUD/NZD cross sub-1.0700.
- Euro and Pound gain at the expense of the Buck as former eyes 1.1050 and latter tops 1.2530.
- Loonie lags below 1.3600 vs Greenback as oil continues to tank.
Fixed Income
- Debt futures extend recovery rallies before waning at 136.70, 102.46 and 115-30+ in Bunds, Gilts and T-notes respectively ahead of ADP, services ISM and Fed.
- German and UK issuance snapped up as auctions both twice over-subscribed in the run up to US Quarterly Refunding remit and press conference.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent front-month futures are softer despite a lack of fresh catalysts, with analysts citing investor jitters surrounding the growth outlook and the expected rate hike by the FOMC.
- Spot gold prices remain above USD 2,000/oz due to a softer Dollar and ongoing fears surrounding the US banking sector, while base metals are indecisive due to growth fears, a softer Dollar, and recovering Chinese demand.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.9mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +0.7mln, Gasoline +0.4mln (exp. -1.2mln), Distillate -1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln)
- Morgan Stanley lowers Brent forecast to USD 75/bbl by year-end, expects the 2024 oil market to be 500k BPD oversupplied.
- Turkey, Russian and Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Ministers are to meet on May 5th, via AA; to discuss extending the Black Sea Grain deal; Russian Foreign Ministry says talks on Black Sea grain deal on May 5th have not yet been agreed, according to Ria.
Geopolitics
- Explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and surrounding regions, according to TASS.
- Top US diplomat for East Asia Kritenbrink said the visit by Philippines President Marcos to the US highlights how enduring the alliance is and the importance of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Kritenbrink said he remains deeply concerned about China’s continued intimidation and harassment, while he added the US stands with the Philippines in the face of China Coast Guard’s infringement and harassment of the Philippines’ freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
- Turkish Foreign Minister says meeting with Russian and Syrian foreign ministers could take place in Moscow on May 10th, according to Haberturk.
- US Fifth Fleet says a Panama-flagged oil tanker was seized by Iran’s IRGC as it was transiting in the Strait of Hormuz on May 3rd.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications -1.2%, prior 3.7%
- 08:15: April ADP Employment Change, est. 148,000, prior 145,000
- 09:45: April S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.7, prior 53.7
- 10:00: April ISM Services Index, est. 51.8, prior 51.2
- 14:00: May FOMC Rate Decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The renewed turmoil in the US regional banking sector yesterday has cast a big shadow over the conclusion of the FOMC today. The S&P 500 fell -1.16%, 2 and 10yr Treasury yields slumped -17.9bps and -14.4bps respectively, PacWest Bancorp fell -27.8% and Metropolitan Bank -20.5%, Fed pricing for a 25bps tonight fell from a 95% probability to 86% (though bottomed yesterday at 78%), and the December 2023 contract declined -19bps to 4.41%. As well as renewed regional banking fears, concerns over a sooner-than-expected debt ceiling deadline (June 8 T-bills soared by an astonishing +85bps at one point before settling +45bps higher), along with signs that the labour market is continuing to soften, helped reinforce the moves.
We’ll start with the banking turmoil, since yesterday saw the KBW Bank index (-4.47%) fall beneath its low on March 23, back at the height of the initial slump when SVB and then Credit Suisse came under pressure. Some of the regional bank stocks were the worst-affected, with PacWest Bancorp (-27.78%), Metropolitan Bank (-20.5%), and Western Alliance Bancorp (-15.12%) seeing major falls as investor concerns grew that the current turmoil wasn’t yet over. The larger banks weren’t immune from the selling pressure either, with declines for Citigroup (-2.62%), Bank of America (-3.06%) and Morgan Stanley (-1.87%). Those moves spurred a broader market selloff, with all the major indices including the NASDAQ (-1.08%) and the Dow Jones (-1.08%) seeing sizeable losses of their own. Consumer goods (+0.55%) and services (+0.44%) were the only sectors to gain on the day, with over 82% companies in the entire index moving lower.
With another round of banking concerns swirling, all eyes will now be on the Fed’s decision later today and what Chair Powell has to say about the current issues in markets. In terms of what to expect, it’s widely anticipated that we’re going to get another 25bp hike, although as discussed at the top the turmoil yesterday did see futures lower the chance to 86% from 95% on Monday. But assuming the hike happens as expected, the bigger question will be what Chair Powell and the FOMC might signal moving forward, not least since market pricing is currently suggesting today will be the last move in the current hiking cycle, with futures still looking for around 64bps of cuts by year-end despite the more hawkish signals from the Fed. The view from our US economists is that the FOMC will maintain a tightening bias and repeat the language from March. If our economists are correct it will mean that Chair Powell won’t commit to any decision at the June meeting, but will emphasise the continued need for a hawkish bias to tame inflation. Their base case is that this is the last hike of this cycle, but the risks are tilted towards another increase in June. We’ll never know but will yesterday’s price action force the Fed to be more dovish than they might have been on say Monday night?
Ahead of that decision, there was some good news from the Fed’s perspective in the latest JOLTS report. That showed the tightness in the labour market eased further in March, with the number of jobs openings down to 9.59m (vs. 9.74m expected), which is the lowest since April 2021. In turn, that meant there were 1.64 vacancies per unemployed individual, again the lowest since October 2021. And it wasn’t just openings that were showing signs of easing, since the private quits rate (which is strongly correlated with wage growth) also came down a tenth to 2.7%, the lowest since February 2021. And with the JOLTS report having some pretty dovish implications, Treasury yields took another leg lower after the release, building on their moves from earlier in the day. By the close, the JOLTS report and the banking turmoil meant that the 10yr Treasury yield was down -14.4bps at 3.424%, and the 2yr yield was also down -17.9bps at 3.961%.
Whilst yields moved lower across most of the curve, there were some seismic movements at the very front-end, with yields on near-term T-bills spiking after Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the government could hit the debt ceiling as early as June 1. For instance, one bill that matures on June 8 spiked up by +85bps at one point before finishing up +45bps on the day, ending the day at 5.230%. For now at least, there hasn’t been much signs of progress on the political side either, which is further concerning investors. The next key point will be a meeting between Biden and congressional leaders on May 9, although as previous debt ceiling episodes have shown, we may well have to get much closer to the deadline before either side feels a need to adjust their position.
Even as the US was the centre of attention yesterday, there was plenty occurring in Europe too ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision. First, we had the Euro Area flash inflation release for April, which showed that core inflation came off its record +5.7% in March to +5.6% in April. The move was in line with expectations, but it marks the first time that core inflation has fallen in 10 months, and helped markets to grow in confidence that the ECB would step down their hikes to a 25bp pace at tomorrow’s meeting. Otherwise, headline inflation was a tenth above expectations at +7.0%, which was actually an upward move from its +6.9% rate in March.
As the ECB decide on how much to hike, another important release yesterday came from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for April. That showed that the speed of net tightening in credit standards was the highest since the sovereign crisis in 2011. But on the other hand, there was hope in some of the forward-looking indicators, with expectations for Q2 seeing a notable rebound. So there was something for everyone in the release. Finally, we also found out that growth in the M3 monetary aggregate was just +2.5% (vs. 2.4% expected) in the year to March 2023, which is the slowest since October 2014. See Peter Sidorov’s wrap up of the news here.
Although plenty was happening in Europe, the market moves mostly followed the US as the continent caught up after the previous day’s holiday. For instance, equities fell back, with the STOXX 600 (-1.24%) seeing its worst daily performance in over a month. At the same time, yields reversed their increase earlier in the day, and those on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps and down -15.9bps from the day’s highs) OATs (-3.7bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) all moved lower.
In Asia, markets are closed in Japan and mainland China for their respective public holidays. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is down -1.76% as I type, heading towards breaking a four-day consecutive streak of gains off the back of renewed turmoil in the US banking sector. The Korean Kospi is likewise retreating -0.89%. US S&P 500 futures are inching higher after yesterday’s sell-off, to be up +0.16%.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, US factory orders grew by +0.9% in March (vs. +1.2% expected), and the previous month was revised down four-tenths to show a larger -1.1% contraction. Over in Europe, German retail sales unexpectedly contracted in March with a -2.4% decline (vs. +0.4% expected). And the final Euro Area manufacturing PMI was revised up three-tenths from the flash reading to 45.8.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include the ISM services index for April and the ADP’s report of private payrolls in April. And in Europe, we’ll get the Euro Area unemployment rate for March.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Equities edge higher while DXY slips as USTs advance pre-FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 06:24 AM
- European futures are on the front-foot with US futures in-fitting after Tuesday’s regional banking pressure.
- DXY continues to slip as USTs advance pre-FOMC, NZD leads while EUR and GBP eye 1.1050 and 1.2550.
- Crude benchmarks came under marked pressure despite limited fresh catalysts as focus remains on the broader growth outlook.
- “Several House GOP leadership sources said they would want to see the Senate pass a short-term debt-limit hike before the House would consider it.”, via Punchbowl
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP & ISM Services, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, US Quarterly Refunding & Press Conference. Earnings from Qualcomm.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European equities trade on the front-foot, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, in an attempt to claw back some of yesterday’s losses ahead of tomorrow’s ECB but before that, the FOMC later today.
- Equity sectors in Europe have a positive tilt with Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverage and Tobacco names top of the leaderboard, whilst Energy names are enduring another session of losses after yesterday’s marked underperformance.
- Stateside, futures are trading in modest positive territory after Tuesday’s pressure where the focus was on the regional banking sector, ES +0.1%.
- FBN’s Gasparino tweets “Sources say bank analysts and traders are digesting the JPMorgan and First Republic deal and valuing regional bank assets off of it at about 85 cents on the dollar. It’s why all the regionals have sold off today and why the regional bank crisis probably isn’t over.”
- Click here and here for the European equity updates, highlights include: BNP Paribas, UniCredit, Pandora, Stellantis & more.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY extends decline from recent peaks as clock ticks down to FOMC, index touches 101.500 from 101.920 high.
- Funding currencies relish low yield environment as Franc regains 0.8900+ status vs Dollar and Yen tests support into 135.50.
- Kiwi flies after upbeat NZ jobs data, with NZD/USD firm on the 0.6200 handle and the AUD/NZD cross sub-1.0700.
- Euro and Pound gain at the expense of the Buck as former eyes 1.1050 and latter tops 1.2530.
- Loonie lags below 1.3600 vs Greenback as oil continues to tank.
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
- Debt futures extend recovery rallies before waning at 136.70, 102.46 and 115-30+ in Bunds, Gilts and T-notes respectively ahead of ADP, services ISM and Fed.
- German and UK issuance snapped up as auctions both twice over-subscribed in the run up to US Quarterly Refunding remit and press conference.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent front-month futures are softer despite a lack of fresh catalysts, with analysts citing investor jitters surrounding the growth outlook and the expected rate hike by the FOMC.
- Spot gold prices remain above USD 2,000/oz due to a softer Dollar and ongoing fears surrounding the US banking sector, while base metals are indecisive due to growth fears, a softer Dollar, and recovering Chinese demand.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.9mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +0.7mln, Gasoline +0.4mln (exp. -1.2mln), Distillate -1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln)
- Morgan Stanley lowers Brent forecast to USD 75/bbl by year-end, expects the 2024 oil market to be 500k BPD oversupplied.
- Turkey, Russian and Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Ministers are to meet on May 5th, via AA; to discuss extending the Black Sea Grain deal; Russian Foreign Ministry says talks on Black Sea grain deal on May 5th have not yet been agreed, according to Ria.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK financial regulator proposes sweeping changes to stock market listing rules after the City of London missed out on a string of high-profile companies in favour of New York, according to FT
DATA RECAP
- EU Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.6%)
- German Q1 Engineering Orders -13% YY, via VDMA; Domestic -14%, Foreign -13%.
- Germany’s DIHK cuts forecast for real growth of German exports in 2023 to 1.0% (prev. 2.5%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- White House said US President Biden will discuss initiating a separate budget process during the meeting with Congress leaders and given the short time frame, Congress should suspend the debt limit without conditions.
- “Several House GOP leadership sources said they would want to see the Senate pass a short-term debt-limit hike before the House would consider it.”, according to Punchbowl sources; “Furthermore, it’s unclear that the right would have the appetite to give Biden and McCarthy more time unless an acceptable deal is truly in the offing.”
- US Senate Banking Committee is to hold a hearing on recent bank failures on Thursday and will conduct a hearing on May 16th to examine the failures of SVB and Signature Bank, while its hearing on May 18th is on the state of the banking and credit union industries with witnesses to include Fed’s Vice of Supervision Barr and the FDIC Chairman.
- USTR Tai and Canada’s Trade Minister discussed Canada’s proposed digital services tax, while Tai expressed her hope that the US and Canada could work together on this issue which could unfairly impact US businesses.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Explosions were reported in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and surrounding regions, according to TASS.
- Top US diplomat for East Asia Kritenbrink said the visit by Philippines President Marcos to the US highlights how enduring the alliance is and the importance of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Kritenbrink said he remains deeply concerned about China’s continued intimidation and harassment, while he added the US stands with the Philippines in the face of China Coast Guard’s infringement and harassment of the Philippines’ freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
- Turkish Foreign Minister says meeting with Russian and Syrian foreign ministers could take place in Moscow on May 10th, according to Haberturk.
- US Fifth Fleet says a Panama-flagged oil tanker was seized by Iran’s IRGC as it was transiting in the Strait of Hormuz on May 3rd.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is comparably contained at the time of writing, within USD 28.35-23.83k parameters with specifics light amid some broader market jitters ahead of the FOMC.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly negative following the losses on Wall St where the major indices declined ahead of the FOMC rate announcement amid regional bank jitters and with sentiment overnight also hampered by the key market closures in Japan and mainland China.
- ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in energy after oil prices dropped more than 5% yesterday and with the mood not helped by mixed data releases including weak AIG Manufacturing and Construction figures.
- KOSPI declined as the broad risk aversion overshadowed the jump in sales by South Korea’s top automakers.
- Hang Seng was pressured by weakness in the energy and tech sectors, with participants bracing for the expected rate hike stateside and a similar move by the HKMA in lockstep with the Fed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoK Governor Rhee said it is premature to talk about a policy pivot, while he noted that it is time to wait and see as core inflation remains high and they are careful because of large FX volatility, according to a CNBC interview.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report said New Zealand’s financial system is well placed to handle the higher interest rate environment and international financial disruptions, while it added that global inflation is persisting at levels well above central banks’ policy targets.
DATA RECAP
- Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Apr) -20.2 (Prev. 5.6); Construction Index (Apr) -12.4 (Prev. -5.8)
- Australian Retail Sales MM (Mar F) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
- New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q1) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
- New Zealand HLFS Unemployment Rate (Q1) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%); Participation Rate (Q1) 72.0% vs. Exp. 71.7% (Prev. 71.7%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index QQ (Q1) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.1%); YY (Q1) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.3%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 234.65 POINTS OR 1.18% /The Nikkei closed UP 34,77 PTS OR 0.12% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.95 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9209 /Oil UP TO 69.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.23 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA///
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
France continues to burn due to protesting of pension reforms. France’s economy is faltering terribly!
(zerohedge)
The French Tradition Of Protesting Pension Reforms
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Anger in the National Assembly, violence in the streets and the Bordeaux town hall on fire.
Macron’s pension reform may have passed in March following the Borne government’s controversial use of Article 49-3 of the Constitution, but a large part of the population remains in disagreement with the changes, particularly the increase in the legal retirement age.
As Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, the latest union-organized demonstrations on May 1 involved violent clashes which resulted in injury to at least 108 police officers and 291 people being detained across the country.
Government figures suggest 782 thousand people took part in the nationwide protests. Organizers however say the figure was far higher, at 2.3 million.
This infographic, based on data from the French Ministry of the Interior (via France Info), compares the official size of protests against the various pension reforms in France between 1995 and 2023.
You will find more infographics at Statista
There have been several cycles of demonstrations against pension reforms in recent decades: in 1995, in 2003, in 2010, in 2019-2020 and in 2023.
This year now has the largest number of days on which protests were organized, with 13 called by the unions.
In 2010, the number reached 12.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Putin targets in a terrorist assassination attempt by drones according to the Kremlin
(zerohedge)
Putin Targeted In “Terrorist” Assassination Attempt By Drones: Kremlin
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 08:00 AM
The Kremlin says two drones were sent by Ukraine in an overnight attack on Moscow and on government buildings which it sees as an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.
A Kremlin press statement called it a “planned terrorist attack” against Putin directly, and says Russia has a right to respond “where and when it deems necessary”.
Putin was not injured in the attempted attack and is said to be safe and carrying on his regular work schedule after the drones were “downed” – according to the Kremlin statement, as cited in RIA.
Further the statement emphasized there was no material damage to the president’s offices from falling debris after Russian defenses disabled the inbound UAVs.
“The aircraft were downed using electronic warfare measures and caused no casualties or damage, it said in a statement,” Russian state media RT reports. “Moscow considers the incident an act of terrorism,” and details further:
The incident occurred late on Tuesday night, and both unmanned aircraft fell on the grounds of the Kremlin in Moscow, according to the president’s office. His schedule was not affected.
The statement from the Russian presidency’s office said: “We consider this a preplanned terrorist action and an attempt against the Russian president.” It happened “ahead of Victory Day and the parade on May 9, when foreign guests plan to be present.”
Initial videos from the attack are being widely circulated, strongly suggesting the accuracy of the Kremlin statements:
Fire can be seen atop the roof of one of the iconic buildings of the Moscow Kremlin complex…
developing…
end
RUSSIA RESPONDS:
Russia’s Medvedev Calls for ‘Elimination’ Of Zelensky & ‘His Clique’ After Drone Attack
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 01:05 PM
Update(1305ET): Outspoken former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday in a post on social media that the overnight drone attack on the Kremlin has left Moscow with no options but to “eliminate” Ukrainian President Zelensky and his “clique”. Essentially he’s calling for a ‘decapitation’ strike of the government in Kiev.
As for Zelensky, he’s vehemently denied his government was behind the attack, which Russia is asserting was an assassination attempt targeting Putin.
And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken weighed in, casting doubt on Russia’s narrative:
“I can’t in any way validate them,” said Blinken, who was at an event with the Post to preview the 2023 World Press Freedom Index. “We simply don’t know. Second, I would take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt.”
Meanwhile, more interesting videos – and closer up showing the inbound drone – continue to emerge…
Here is the host of RT’s Cross Talk suggesting a huge escalation in the Russian response is coming:
* * *
Update(10:02ET): Zelensky’s office is insisting it had nothing to do with the drone strike on the Kremlin, which Russian officials say was a “terrorist” attempt to assassinate President Putin:
Even though Ukraine has denied involvement, pro-Kremlin voices are already calling for revenge. In a social media post, Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, said: “We will demand the use of weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime.”
The reaction out of lawmakers in Russia’s State Duma has been predictably hawkish, also with prominent Russian MP Mikhail Sheremet reportedly saying “It’s time to launch a missile attack on Zelensky’s residence.” Via news wires:
RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER DEMANDS KYIV REGIME BE DESTROYED AFTER DRONE ATTACK ON KREMLIN
The New York Times meanwhile has underscored that “If confirmed, it would be the most audacious attempted strike on Russian soil since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year.” The report also provides a reminder of recent US intelligence revelations which previewed just such a scenario as drones targeting the Kremlin:
Local and regional authorities in Russia have reported a series of drone strikes in recent months. Some have landed close to Ukraine’s border with Russia, but at least one has hit south of Moscow. Ukraine has not acknowledged responsibility for most of the incidents. Moscow is around 280 miles northeast of the Ukrainian border at its closest point.
Last month, The Washington Post reported that the United States had secretly monitored discussions among Ukrainian officials about possible attacks against Moscow timed to coincide with the Feb. 24 anniversary of Russia’s invasion. The White House feared that such a move would provoke an aggressive response from Moscow, and two days before the anniversary, the C.I.A. said that Ukraine’s intelligence directorate “had agreed, at Washington’s request, to postpone strikes” on Moscow. The information was part of a trove of classified U.S. intelligence documents obtained by The Post and other news organizations.
Meanwhile, overnight there were also new Russian aerial attacks against Kiev and other locations throughout Ukraine. There continue to be reports of Russian bombers airborne over the country, as people on the ground brace for more waves of strikes.
Speculation continues over the drone attack on the Kremlin…
* * *
Update(0845ET): Below is the clearest video to have surfaced thus far which appears to show what the Kremlin is calling an assassination attempt targeting President Putin:
The video is remarkably close and shows the inbound flight path of the drone as it flew over the Kremlin perimeter. A small explosion briefly sets fire to the rooftop of the struck main building, which houses presidential offices, and may have resulted in minor damage.
Will this incident provide Moscow with a justification for the possible coming “shock and awe” campaign against Ukraine in response?
Ukraine is quickly trying to distance itself from the drone attack, which some online pundits have already begun to claim and speculate could have been a ‘false flag’…
- UKRAINE HAS NO LINKS TO DRONE ATTACKS ON KREMLIN: PODOLYAK
- UKRAINE: NOT USING RESOURCES TO ATTACK FOREIGN TERRITORIES
- UKRAINE: DON’T HAVE INFORMATION ON KREMLIN DRONE ATTACK
“Ukraine presidential office denies drone strike on Kremlin, says such an attack would achieve nothing and not change anything on the battlefield,” VOA correspondent Steve Herman has noted of the statements from Zelensky’s office.
* * *
The Kremlin says two drones were sent by Ukraine in an overnight attack on Moscow and on government buildings which it sees as an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.
A Kremlin press statement called it a “planned terrorist attack” against Putin directly, and says Russia has a right to respond “where and when it deems necessary”.
The president was not injured in the attempted attack and is said to be safe and carrying on his regular work schedule after the drones were “downed” – according to the Kremlin statement, as cited in RIA.
Further the statement emphasized there was no material damage to the president’s offices from falling debris after Russian defenses disabled the inbound UAVs.
“The aircraft were downed using electronic warfare measures and caused no casualties or damage, it said in a statement,” Russian state media RT reports. “Moscow considers the incident an act of terrorism,” and details further:
The incident occurred late on Tuesday night, and both unmanned aircraft fell on the grounds of the Kremlin in Moscow, according to the president’s office. His schedule was not affected.
The statement from the Russian presidency’s office emphasized: “We consider this a preplanned terrorist action and an attempt against the Russian president.” It happened “ahead of Victory Day and the parade on May 9, when foreign guests plan to be present.” The statement detailed, “Two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin. As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services using radar warfare systems, the devices were disabled.”
Initial videos from the attack are being widely circulated, strongly suggesting the accuracy of the Kremlin statements of a nighttime attack on central government buildings in Moscow; however, they do appear to show a direct strike of at least one of the drones on a building:
Fire can be seen atop the roof of one of the iconic buildings of the Moscow Kremlin complex…
The Russian presidential spokesman followed-up with this message after the initial Kremlin press release:
“As a result of this terrorist act, the President of the Russian Federation was not injured. His work schedule has not changed, it continues as usual,” the message said.
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explained that the head of state was not in the Kremlin during what he described as a Ukrainian UAV attack on Tuesday night. He noted that President Putin is currently working from his residence near Moscow.
All of this makes a downed Ukrainian drone incident outside Moscow from last week much more interesting in hindsight, which we covered here: Kremlin Rejects German Media’s ‘Putin Drone Assassination’ Report. It will also be interesting to see whether Russia points the finger at the United States and West for its longtime intelligence support to Kiev, as we reviewed in December based on this statement: We Are Not “Enabling” Or “Encouraging” Ukraine To Strike Within Russia: White House.
developing…
END
This ought to be fun: What will the brainless Biden do now?
(zerohedge)
IRAN
Watch: Iran Seizes 2nd Foreign Crude Tanker In Under A Week
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 11:45 AM
Iran has seized a second foreign tanker in under a week, this time in the strategic Strait of Hormuz – a key transit point of much of the world’s global oil – in a daring Wednesday naval operation carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The captured Panamanian-flagged oil tanker has been identified by the US Navy’s 5th Fleet as the Niovi. Some dozen IRGC fast boats could be seen swarming the vessel in footage published by the US military.
The US Navy described that the Iranian ships “forced the oil tanker to reverse course and head toward Iranian territorial waters off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran.”
“Iran’s actions are contrary to international law and disruptive to regional security and stability,” the 5th Fleet statement said. “Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights in regional waters are unwarranted, irresponsible and a present threat to maritime security and the global economy.”
According to tanker records detailed in the Associated Press, “Shipping registries show the Niovi as managed by Smart Tankers of Piraeus, Greece.”
“The Niovi had been coming from dry-dock repairs in Dubai, bound for Fujairah on the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates without carrying any cargo, according to the data firm Refinitiv,” the report indicates.
As we described over the weekend, the tanker wars are back – in reference to the prior multiple tanker attacks and seizures during the summer of 2019 – given a fresh tit-for-tat between Tehran and Washington is emerging.
Last week Iran’s navy seized the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Advantage Sweet which had been moving Kuwaiti oil to Houston under Chevron. Video released by the Iranians of the last Thursday seizure showed that the vessel was boarded by Iranian troops who propelled down to the vessel’s deck from a helicopter.
Location of the Niovi, via Marinetraffic.com:
But it was later revealed that the Iranian assault on the vessel was in retaliation for the United States days prior to this seizing Iranian oil that was bound for China.
“US authorities ordered a tanker of Iranian crude oil to redirect towards the US in recent days, in a move officials believe was the trigger for Iran’s decision to capture a US-bound tanker on Thursday,” the FT reported Friday. https://twitter.com/US5thFleet/status/1653683480235057152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1653683480235057152%7Ctwgr%5Ec120df68b4a88ea9b7ac8528d99a4b2ea870e885%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
ISRAEL
New wave of Gaza to Israel rocket fire after the death of a Palestinian hunger striker
(zerohedge)
New Wave Of Gaza-Israel Rocket Fire After Death Of Palestinian Hunger Striker
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:25 PM
More rocket fire between Israel and the Gaza strip erupted Tuesday, following news of the death of Khader Adnan Mohammad Musa, a 45-year-old Palestinian prisoner who was a leader of the Islamic Jihad. He died after an 86-day hunger strike in Israeli jails, and is said to be the first Palestinian prisoner to die of a long term hunger strike.
At least three on the Israeli side have been injured after an initial barrage of 22 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip, setting off air raid sirens across southern Israel. Four of the projectiles were reported intercepted by anti-air defense systems. Israel has responded with tank fire, and further escalation in strikes on the strip is likely. Later into the evening, Israeli officials and media tallied over 30 rockets fired. Gaza militants are vowing further retaliation for their “martyr”.
The “Joint Command of Resistance Groups”, which makes up multiple militant factions operating in Gaza, has vowed more action to come, stating that the first wave of rockets was a “a first response”.
Protests have broken out in the West Bank, including in the large town of Ramallah, putting already high tensions with Israeli military and police further on edge.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh called the death of Khader Adnan a “deliberate assassination”. He had been arrested by Israeli forces in the West Bank for alleged security-related crimes.
Shtayyeh blamed Israel for his death “by rejecting his request for his release, neglecting him medically and keeping him in his cell, despite the seriousness of his health condition,” according to a statement.
Based on the latest description of the deteriorating situation in The Associated Press, things are teetering on the brink of a possible new outbreak of large-scale clashes between Palestinians and Israeli authorities, including in prisons where thousands of Palestinians are held, sometimes without charges:
Palestinians called for a general strike in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and protesters rushed to Israeli military checkpoints in the occupied territory, slinging stones at Israeli soldiers. Israeli forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets at crowds gathered at the northern entrance to the West Bank city of Ramallah. Early Tuesday, Palestinian militants in Gaza fired another volley of rockets that landed in empty fields in Israel. Islamic Jihad said that its “fight continues and will not stop.”
Palestinian prisoners are overseen by Cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ultra-nationalist politician who has tightened restrictions on the Palestinian inmates, including shortening their shower time and closing prison bakeries.
Ben-Gvir said Tuesday that prison officials must exhibit “zero-tolerance toward hunger strikes and unrest in security prisons” and ordered prisoners be confined to their cells.
International reports say Adnan had been arrested 12 times and spent a total of eight years in Israeli prisons, with most of that time having been spent in administrative detention, meaning he was held without trial.
Israel has defended the controversial practice of raiding West Bank homes and then holding people without trial as necessary to root out dangerous militants who pose a threat to Israeli security.
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES
Scientists say meat is crucial to the human diet and warn against the vegan mob
(zerohedge)
Scientists Say Meat Is Crucial To The Human Diet – Warn Against Vegan ‘Zealotry’
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Dozens of experts were asked to look into the science behind claims that meat eating causes disease and is harmful for the planet in a special issue of a journal called Animal Frontiers. They have warned against a widespread societal push towards plant-based diets, arguing that poorer communities with low meat intake often suffer from stunting, wasting and anemia driven by a lack of vital nutrients and protein.
Thousands of scientists across the globe have also joined The Dublin Declaration, a group stating that livestock farming is too important to society to “become the victim of zealotry.” They say that many of the negative claims about meat in our diet are simply not true.
The Dublin Declaration group has published a statement allowing global signatories to join them in defending meat supported diets and contradicting common claims made by establishment institutions against livestock in agriculture. In particular, the scientists stress that meats provide vitamin B12 intake in human diets, play a major role in supplying retinol, omega-3 fatty acids and minerals such as iron and zinc, as well as important compounds for metabolism, such as taurine and creatine. There is no vegan equivalent that fills these nutritional needs and a number of supplements are often required to keep them healthy.
Scientists note that only well resourced (wealthier) people have the means to abandon meat in their diets and consume vegetables and carbs alone. In other words, veganism is a first world ideology that is impractical for the majority of the global population. Even India, a developing nation often cited by anti-meat activists for its religious stance against killing animals, still has a 70% meat eating population.
Previous studies (such as the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor Study, published in The Lancet in 2020) warning against the “dangers” of meat are also being debunked. Dr Alice Stanton, of the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, one of the authors of a review of anti-meat claims, notes:
“The peer-reviewed evidence published reaffirms that [the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Risk Factors Report] which claimed that consumption of even tiny amounts of red meat harms health is fatally scientifically flawed…In fact, removing fresh meat and dairy from diets would harm human health. Women, children, the elderly and low income would be particularly negatively impacted.”
The anti-meat movement most likely finds its roots in astroturf. Pro-vegan research tends to be funded by globalist institutions like the UN and the WEF, which have made clear that they want meat to become a “rare treat” rather than a dietary staple.
This would be accomplished by a number of means, but a primary tool would be emissions taxation on farmers and agricultural products leading to artificially higher prices. The UN hopes to ward much of the populace away from meat by making it unaffordable. This is similar to the tactic they have recommended for pushing people away from “fossil fuels.” If price is a problem and you still need protein, the globalists suggest fake meat (which is more expensive than real meat for now), or shifting to a third world diet and eating bugs instead.
The UN says its goal is to enforce a completely meat and dairy free human diet by 2050 in order to “fight climate change,” though they have been caught in the past greatly exaggerating how much livestock methane contributes to overall emissions. Even if you believe that there is a real climate crisis (despite there being no evidence to support the hype), there is still the fact that livestock emissions are a negligible portion of supposed “greenhouse gases.” You wouldn’t be accomplishing anything to save the planet by becoming vegan.
When climate hysteria is not effective, the same groups try to frighten people away from meat using fraudulent health concerns. We have seen this lately in the meat issue as well as with natural gas appliances. Baseless health risk claims are promoted using the corporate media as an amplifier, and the evidence proving the claims wrong is never addressed.
Without regular access to meat vast numbers of people may be dependent on manufactured supplements to stay healthy. Much of these supplements are produced in countries overseas that may become hostile and cut off exports. Not to mention, governments could also control the supplies for their own citizens as leverage. The price factor for foods would make sustaining the current population untenable, leading to either mass starvation or deliberate population reduction.
END
Vaccine issues:
DR PAUL ALEXANDER:
James Thorp et al.’s research: COVID mRNA technology’s Catastrophic impact on Pregnancy Outcomes & Menstrual Function; miscarriage, fetal chromosomal abnormalities, fetal malformation, fetal cystic
hygroma, cardiac disorders, arrhythmia, cardiac arrest, vascular mal-perfusion, growth abnormalities, fetal abnormal surveillance, fetal placental thrombosis, low amniotic fluid, and fetal death/still
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 2 |
SOURCE:
COVID-19 Vaccines: The Impact on Pregnancy Outcomes and Menstrual Function[v1] | Preprints.org
END
Randi Weingarten AFT president did more to damage the health & well-being, education, social development, psychological development etc. of our children in conspiring with Fauci & Birx, against Trump
She said Trump pushing to open schools was ‘Reckless, callous, cruel’ yet today we know & always knew children had a statistical zero risk of severe outcome or death if exposed; kids killed themselves
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 2 |
SOURCE:
END
Kim et al.: “Patients With Acute Myocarditis Following mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination”; of 7 patients with acute myocarditis, 4 happened within 5 days COVID-19 vaccine (February 1 & April 30 2021); all 4
patients got 2nd dose mRNA vaxx & presented with severe chest pain, had biomarker evidence of myocardial injury, hospitalized with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging findings typical of myocarditis
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 2 |
SOURCE:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2781602
‘In the 3-month period between February 1 and April 30, 2021, 7 patients with acute myocarditis were identified, of which 4 occurred within 5 days of COVID-19 vaccination. Three were younger male individuals (age, 23-36 years) and 1 was a 70-year-old female individual. All 4 had received the second dose of an mRNA vaccine (2 received mRNA-1273 [Moderna], and 2 received BNT162b2 [Pfizer]). All presented with severe chest pain, had biomarker evidence of myocardial injury, and were hospitalized.
Coincident testing for COVID-19 and respiratory viruses provided no alternative explanation. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging findings were typical for myocarditis, including regional dysfunction, late gadolinium enhancement, and elevated native T1 and T2.’
END
Massive number of deaths of young US military men & women due to the COVID mRNA technology based gene injection ‘vaccine’, other nations too!; Korean military prove recent military recruit’s death
Pfizer mRNA vaccine linked, declaring the primary cause of death was determined to be myocarditis, causally-associated with the Pfizer vaccine; sudden deaths under 25 is NOT normal (Choi et al.)
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 26 |
It is critical that the US military and all global militaries investigate each death of their soldiers via autopsies with full histology to ascertain if these sudden deaths are COVID mRNA technology based gene injection related. The fact is that this age group e.g. persons usually 20 to 25 years old should not be dying suddenly, especially if they are fit, strong military personnel.
In this example:
‘The primary cause of death was determined to be myocarditis, causally-associated with the Pfizer vaccine.’
Researchers present a case of a 22-year-old South Korean male military recruit who ‘developed chest pain 5 days after the first dose of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine (mRNA technology) and died 7 hours later. Histological examination of the heart revealed isolated atrial myocarditis, with neutrophil and histiocyte predominance. Immunohistochemical C4d staining revealed scattered single-cell necrosis of myocytes which was not accompanied by inflammatory infiltrates. Extensive contraction band necrosis was observed in the atria and ventricles. There was no evidence of microthrombosis or infection in the heart and other organs.’
‘There were three main histological findings in the heart: 1) myocarditis predominantly involving the atrial wall, with neutrophil and histiocyte predominance; 2) non-inflammatory single-cell necrosis; and 3) diffuse CBN throughout the myocardium, predominantly in the left ventricle. These pathological findings were not evident on macroscopic examination. The only abnormal gross finding was cardiac enlargement, which may have been secondary to hypertension.’
end
Attacking Peter McCullough now, Canada, in giving healthy children unsafe, untested, deadly COVID MalonemRNA technology gene injections; McCullough warns DON’T, I agree, show evidence the shot needed
No trial, no study has been done to date to show that these shots are safe & effective in healthy children, in any children, bull sh*t garbage unsubstantiated reporting by Roley of AFP Canada
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 29 |
Njoo, Tam at PHAC who helped damage Canadians by their corruptible COVID policies only outdone by Bonnie Henry out of BC, as per these idiots in this hit piece by Roley, all of them, know that they have lied from day one, were duplicitous, and have harmed Canadians, killed many with their specious unscientific COVID lunatic lockdown shielding policies, and that there is no data anywhere to support their lockdowns, school closures, mask mandates, nothing, none for the COVID gene injection, none. I give an example of only a few studies but read my work to get the full breadth and see my response below bolded to this garbage article and the incompetent deceitful so called doctors cited:
end
Fauci lies in a way that is breathtaking, he cannot even remember his own lies, corruptible, listen here; this one health official, pipetting chemist is all he was, but this one technocrat caused more
death during COVID than any other with his nonsensical, illogical, irrational, unsound, academically sloppy statements and lockdown lunacy, matched only by scarf lady Birx; we need him in a court room
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 3 |
He is trying to distance himself from the harms of the COVID lunacy but we must not let him, he thinks he is smart but he is not, he is crooked, thats all…he thinks he has a play on words you cannot understand but not so, listen carefully:
SOURCE:
A
| VACCINE IMPACT |
“…When people say, ‘Fauci shut down the economy’ — it wasn’t Fauci. The CDC was the organization that made those recommendations. I happened to be perceived as the personification of the recommendations. But show me a school that I shut down and show me a factory that I shut down. Never. I never did. I gave a public-health recommendation that echoed the C.D.C.’s recommendation, and people made a decision based on that. But I never criticized the people who had to make the decisions one way or the other.”
Now is this how you perceived what Fauci was saying during COVID or did he not represent ‘the science’ as he said and did you not trust him? He knew that the public trusted and ate it up, ate the bullshit duplicituous corrupted statements up and he was screwing you/us all the way and he knew the con was on us, he was a snake oils salesman like even many in the COVID movement itself. He knew you trusted and trusted authority figures. He knew most doctors and academic researchers depended on NIH/NIAID funding, that he had a direct or indirect hand in funding, him and Francis Collins, that type of malfeasant, and that most US university and even funding bodies were locked to NIH funding and that no one would go against him, would question him, else their lives would become what it really always was, empty and miserable, as he would yank their grants and they could no longer sleep in the lab and spend each waking hour writing grants and sucking off the teets of the tax payer purse for grants, in a sense stealing the tax payer money studying why grass grows, crap like that! But Fauci was the guy and you did not dare question the lockdowns, the school closures, the mask mandates, the business closures, the fraud mRNA technology gene injections knowing it was wrong and deadly. You chose to keep sucking off the tax payer but now running to the hills.
We won’t let you. We will get you into the right legal hearings. We will.
DR PANDA
END
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| New York Times Calls for Mentally Ill to Be EuthanizedLeft-wing newspaper The New York Times has called for mentally ill people to be euthanized, arguing that the expansion of “assisted suicide” is “moral progress.”READ MORE |
| Jesse Watters: ‘Epstein Was an Intelligence Asset, Working with the CIA’Fox News star Jesse Watters has declared that deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein “was an intelligence asset” who was “working with the CIA.”READ MORE |
| Biden Caves, Deploys 1,500 Troops to Southern Border Ahead of Title 42 EndingDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration has approved sending 1,500 active-duty U.S. troops to the southern border, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Bud Light Hits Panic Button amid ‘Shocking Deterioration’ of Market Share: ‘We’ve Never Seen Such a Dramatic Shift’Bud Light is in big trouble as sales continue to plummet, according to data released by Bump Williams Consulting.READ MORE |
| Riley Gaines Slams Brittney Griner’s ‘Demeaning’ Trans Athlete Comments: ‘If We’re Going to Talk about Crimes’Former collegiate swimmer Riley Gaines called out Brittney Griner after the “woke” WNBA star said she’s against banning transgender athletes from women’s sports.READ MORE |
| Texas AG Ken Paxton Makes Move, Launches Investigation into Gain-of-Function ResearchTexas Attorney General Paxton has launched an investigation into dangerous gain-of-function research.READ MORE |
| Biden Calls Muslim Guest ‘Boy’ at Event Celebrating Eid-al-Fitr: ‘Hush Up, Boy’Democrat President Joe Biden has let another humiliating gaffe slip, raising further doubts about his mental fitness for office.READ MORE |
| DeSantis Signs New Law to Begin Executing Pedophiles in FloridaFlorida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has signed legislation into law that will allow the state to begin executing pedophiles.READ MORE |
| Bernie Sanders Calls for All Wealth Above $999 Million to Be Confiscated by Federal GovernmentSocialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has called for America to eliminate billionaires.READ MORE |
| Greg Abbott Tells Lori Lightfoot to Pound Sand over Migrant Busing: ‘Call on Biden Admin to Do Its Job’Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott has told Lori Lightfoot to pound sand after Chicago’s outgoing Democrat mayor begged him to stop sending migrants north to her “sanctuary city.”READ MORE |
| 27 Democrats Vote to Protect Predators Who Flash Children in Colorado27 Colorado Democrats voted to protect sexual predators who are caught indecently exposing themselves to minors.READ MORE |
| IBM to Replace 8,000 Workers with Artificial IntelligenceTech giant IBM is stopping all new hires of human workers for jobs that can be filled by artificial intelligence (AI), according to reports.READ MORE |
| JPMorgan Buys First Republic Bank after Regulators Seize ControlJPMorgan Chase is buying First Republic Bank after the beleaguered institution was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).READ MORE |
VACCINE IMPACT/
MICHAEL EVERY
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
Biden’s Game Of Chicken: “We Won’t See A Debt Ceiling Solution Until The Market Panics”
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 07:25 PM
By Philip Marey, Senior Strategist at Rabobank
Summary
- Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a new letter to the Congressional leadership, with the message that the X-date could arrive as soon as June 1.
- With the adoption of the Limit, Save, Grow Act in the House of Representatives and President Biden’s unwillingness to negotiate about conditions for a raise in the debt limit, a game of chicken between Republicans and Democrats has started.
- So far, markets reacted to the possibility of a US federal government default with a revealed preference for one month treasury bills over longer dated T-bills. However, we are still far from the panic needed to break the stalemate between Republicans and Democrats. This is likely to occur closer to the X-date.
- Either this game is over within a few weeks or we are going to see a suspension of the debt limit until later this year. In both cases, we are not likely to see any solution until financial markets start to panic.
Introduction
Although the midterm elections in November turned out better for the Democrats than could have been expected based on the high inflation rate and President Biden’s low approval rating, they lost their majority in the House of Representatives. With the 118th Congress in session since early January, the balance of power in Washington DC has shifted. After two years of Democratic Control, with Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress and a Democratic President, the Republicans are now able to shoot down any bill on the House floor in the next two years. This means a regime shift has taken place in US politics this year to Divided Government, where legislation requires bipartisan cooperation. The first of the fiscal standoffs that we warned for in Midterm implications is already taking shape and it is the most dangerous one, the debt limit.
McCarthy’s move
On April 26, the House of Representatives adopted the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023, presented by House Speaker McCarthy a week earlier, with a 217-215 vote. All Democrats voted no, so did four Republicans. The bill, drafted by the leadership of the House Republicans, in consultation with various members, raises the debt limit by $1.5 trillion or until March 31, 2024, whichever comes first. Note that the current debt limit of $31.381 trillion was reached on January 19, after which the Treasury Department started extraordinary measures, postponing the X-date, when the Treasury will be unable to meet all of its debt obligations. In exchange for the higher debt ceiling, the House Republicans want to limit government spending. The bill sets discretionary spending for fiscal year 2024 (October 1, 2023 – September 30, 2024) at the level of fiscal year 2022 and then limits growth in discretionary spending to no more than 1% a year in the next decade. The bill also rescinds unspent COVID relief funds, and make changes to energy, regulatory and permitting policies. However, the plan also cuts the increased funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). What’s more, it will prevent implementation of President Biden’s student debt cancellation and Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) expansion, and impose or expand work requirements in several federal safety net programs. This means serious concessions by the Democrats, which they are not likely to agree to. In fact, President Biden has made clear repeatedly that he does not want to negotiate at all. His position remains that he wants a “clean” debt limit raise, i.e. without any condition.
Biden’s game of chicken
With the adoption of Limit, Save, Grow Act by the House of Representatives, and Biden’s demand for a “clean” raise of the debt limit, a game of chicken has started between Republicans and Democrats. Both parties want to avoid a government default, which would cause significant damage to the financial markets and the economy. Consequently, the so-called X-date, when the extraordinary measures are exhausted, is the deadline for the game of chicken. In the time before the deadline, we are not likely to see any party blink, unless a financial market panic breaks out. Once the deadline passes, neither party has an interest in keeping the US in default. By this time, financial markets will definitely be in turmoil.
It could be argued, especially by Democrats, that as the Republicans are the party attaching conditions to the debt limit increase necessary to avert or end the default, they are likely to bear most of the pressure to concede. This argument frames the current game as a repeat of 2011 and 2013. However, the crucial difference is that the Limit, Save, Grow Act is actually a bill to raise the debt ceiling! So it is misleading to claim that “House Republicans are holding our economy hostage and threatening default” as the White House press secretary did on April 27. In fact, it could be argued, in particular by Republicans, that the Democrats are the obstacle to a raise in the debt ceiling. After all, if the Senate – where Democrats are needed to get the 60 necessary votes – adopts this bill and President Biden signs it into law, the debt ceiling is lifted. The truth is that after the difficult process to confirm McCarthy as the new House Speaker in January, the Democrats hoped that the House Republicans would not be able to agree on what they wanted in exchange for a raise in the debt limit. That would have strengthened the Democrats’ demand for a clean raise, i.e. without conditions. Now, it seems reasonable to start negotiations about spending cuts attached to the raise in the debt ceiling. However, a game of chicken with financial market turmoil as leverage is more likely to unfold. In the end, i.e. close to the X-date, the game of chicken is likely to be resolved under pressure from financial markets. So how are markets reacting to the developments regarding the debt ceiling so far?
Markets looking for near-term safety
On January 13, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to the Congressional leadership, noting that it was unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures would be exhausted before early June. To avoid the risk of holding a treasury bill that may not be repaid investors have shown a preference for near-term treasury bills in recent weeks. The yield on one month bills has clearly moved away from the yield on three, six or twelve month bills. While the yields on the latter three maturities continue to move together, the one month yield tanked after McCarthy’s presentation of the Republican plan brought the debt limit to the forefront. Demand from money market funds likely played a major role in the decline in the one month yield. Recently, money market funds have received large inflows from depositors concerned about the safety of their holdings at small banks or their modest returns at large banks. At the same time, the supply of near-term T-bills has fallen as the Treasury has already hit the debt ceiling and is trying to delay the X-date. So far, markets reacted to the possibility of a US federal government default with a revealed preference for one month T-bills over longer dated T-bills (This should subside as early June enters the one month horizon). However, we are still far from the panic needed to bring Democrats and Republicans together. This is likely to occur closer to the X-date
X-date in June?
On May 1, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a new letter to the Congressional leadership, with the message that “After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.” This means that the X-date could arrive sooner than previously expected, due to disappointing tax receipts. Shortly after Yellen’s announcement, President Biden invited top Republicans and Democrats for a meeting next week about raising the debt limit. However, a White House official said that Biden will repeat his view that Congress should pass a stand-alone increase in the debt limit, but that he is open to a discussion on the budget that is not linked to raising the debt limit. In other words, the Democrats are not blinking, neither are the Republicans.
Also on May 1, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan budget agency, updated its budget projections and concluded that lower-than-expected tax receipts this year create a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June. Earlier, they forecasted that the default could occur as soon as July. While, prior to May 1, markets had a wide range of forecasts regarding the X-date, from June to September, and even beyond, it looks like the probability of the X-date being located in June has increased substantially.
This would increase the pressure on the players of the game of chicken rapidly in the coming weeks. Alternatively, or because of this, we could see a temporary suspension of the debt limit to buy more time to negotiate (the Republicans are likely to want something in exchange for that, probably something from the Limit, Save, Grow Act they adopted last week). For example, Congress could delay the deadline to the end of the fiscal year, September 30. This would bring the deadline for the budget for fiscal year 2024 and the deadline for the debt limit together, allowing for a comprehensive solution. However, it would also add to the pressure at the new X-date, because failure to reach a deal would lead to both a government shutdown and a government default.
Conclusion
The game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans has really kicked off after the House of Representatives voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter indicating that the X-date could arrive as soon as June 1, and Biden’s repeated dismissal of any conditions attached to a raise in the debt limit. Either this game is over within a few weeks or we are going to see a delay until later this year. In both cases, we are not likely to see any solution until financial markets start to panic.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.1043 UP 0.0033
USA/ YEN 135.56 DOWN 0.905 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2526 UP 0.0048
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3614 DOWN .0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 234.65 PTS OR 1.18%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .95% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 234.65 PTS OR 1.18 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.95%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34.77 PTS OR 0.12%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2015.65
silver:$25.28
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 101.31 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s close.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.080% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.415 % UP01 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.318 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.123 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2455 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1054 UP 0.0044 or 44 basis points
USA/Japan: 135.14 DOWN 1.323 OR YEN UP 133 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2546 UP .0071 OR 71BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0005 OR 5 BASIS pts to 1.3616
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED XXX.()
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.6154
TURKISH LIRA: 19.46 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.415…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.373% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.665 DOWN 7 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9304% DOWN 2 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.15 DOWN 58 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 16/13 points or 0.23%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 85.84 PTS OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16.50 PTS OR 0.22%
Spain IBEX DOWN 14.30 PTS OR 0.2%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 182.72 PTS OR 0.69%
WTI Oil price 68.30 12: EST
Brent Oil: 71.97. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 79.17/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 45//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2455 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.723 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1056 UP 0.0045 OR 45 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2552 UP .0076 or 76 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.7195% UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.24 DOWN 1.239 //YEN UP 124 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3612 DOWN .0008 CDN dollar, UP 8 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.42
Brent OIL: 72.31
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.398%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.710%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 3.918%
USA dollar index: 101.13 DOWN 60 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.48
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.24 UP 0 AND 42/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 270.29 PTS OR 0.80%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 83.45 PTS OR 0.64%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.59 UP .81 PTS (4.56)%
GLD: $189.11 UP 1.59 OR 0.85%
SLV/ $23.43 UP 0.08 OR 0.0187%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble On ‘Hawkish Pause’; Gold Gains As Crude Collapses
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 04:01 PM
‘Good’ headline macro news (strong ADP and ISM Services beat) was somewhat trumped by ‘bad’ macro news (inflationary pressures re-accelerating under the hood)… all of which do nothing at all to support The Fed’s ‘easing’ anytime soon (strong jobs and resurgent inflation).
Of course, today was all about Powell and his pals who signaled a ‘hawkish pause’ (despite the market’s very dovish beliefs). June rate-hike odds rose…
Source: Bloomberg
Now it gets interesting…
Source: Bloomberg
With Real Rates positive for the first time since 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
Powell’s comments did nothing at all to help (unusually):
- POWELL: SENIOR LOAN SURVEY CONSISTENT WITH OTHER DATA
- POWELL: POSSIBLY AT SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE LEVEL, MAY NOT BE FAR OFF
A recession is coming but don’t expect rate-cuts…
- POWELL: POSSIBLE WE’LL HAVE WHAT WOULD BE A MILD RECESSION
Yield curve gives 94% odds of a recession within 12 months…
Don’t believe the market’s dovish hype!
- POWELL: FOMC’S INFLATION OUTLOOK DOESN’T SUPPORT RATE CUTS (the ‘inflation is transitory’ outlook?)
And that spooked stocks lower (not helped by Powell’s hints at how bad next week’s SLOOS data will be). Small Caps managed to hold on to gains but the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq tumbled…
0DTE traders were betting on the downside in a big way today and took profits after the post-Powell puke…
Big reversal in “most shorted” stocks today (which helps explain the early gains in Small Caps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional banks puked after Powell said the banking system was sound and resilient…
VIX1D remains notably higher than VIX…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled once again today with the belly of the curve outperforming (5Y -11bps, 30Y -2bps). It’s been quite a week in bonds already…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y extended below 4.00%
Source: Bloomberg
The STIRs curve adjusted (small) hawkishly in the shortest end but notably more dovish next year on…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar dived on the day to two-week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin chopped around but ended marginally lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied on the day (marginally)…
But crude was clubbed like a baby seal with WTI tumbling to a $67 handle intraday, dramatically below the pre-OPEC+ level…
Finally, the market remains dramatically more dovish than The Fed and Powell throughly rejected that view today…
And WTF is Powell talking about claiming that the banking system is sound and resilient and is stabilizing…
2023 bank failures are now larger than 2008 and 2009 combined…
And deposit outflows continue from large and small banks…
Sorry Joe ol’ pal, jawboning’s not gonna out enough lipstick on this pig to fix this shitshow…
It’s on you mate! The market is demanding cuts (and pricing them in) and you just made it worse.
Jeff Gundlach gets the last word: “…markets for risk assets are too complacent.”
END
i b afternoon trading: FOMC
Fed hikes by 25 basis points and signals a hawkish pause and then warns of tighter credit standards
Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Signals ‘Hawkish Pause’; Warns Of ‘Tighter Credit Standards’
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 02:05 PM
Tl:dr; Fed raises rates by 25 bps as expected.
Policy statement softens the rate guidance in a way consistent with past pauses and The Fed deletes reference to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.”
A clear hat-tip to the banking crisis:
“Recent development are likely to result in tighter credit conditions” removed and replaced with “Tighter credit conditions”
The decision was unanimous.
As WSJ Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos notes: “The FOMC statement used language broadly similar to how officials concluded their interest-rate increases in 2006, with no explicit promise of a pause by retaining a bias to tighten.”
This is clearly more of a hawkish pause since it doesn’t suggest whether ‘policy easing’ may be appropriate… but then again, if Powell had gone that far, markets would have panicked over “what does he know”?
* * *
Since March 22 (the last FOMC statement, which included the dot-plot and economic projections), markets have been ‘just a little bit turbo’ but amid all that vol, bonds and stocks are modestly higher while the dollar has tumbled and alternative currencies (bitcoin and gold) have outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
However, The Fed’s preferred recession rate-spread indicator (3-month/18-month forward) is now flashing red implying a 94% probability of a recession within the next year
Interestingly, the market’s expected rate trajectory of The Fed has shifted somewhat hawkishly, mainly due to the plunge in rate-hike odds that occurred on the day of the FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-hike expectations have drifted higher since the last FOMC…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s 25bp hike is a lock from the market’s perspective, but what is really the focus today is any hints that The Fed is done (and the market for now, is convinced they will be with just 5% odds of a 25bp hike in June).
But, the market remains massively dovishly divergent from The Fed‘s dotplot rate expectations for this year and next…
As we noted earlier, a single sentence in the FOMC statement will change everything everything today and all eyes will also be on whether there are any dissents.
- Federal Open Market Committee raises benchmark rate by 25 basis points, as forecast, to target range of 5%-5.25%
This hike moves Real Rates positive for the first time since 2019…
- FOMC omits prior language saying “some additional policy firming” may be warranted, suggesting Fed could pause at the next meeting
- FOMC will take into account various factors “in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate”
And the vote was unanimous.
Additionally, The Fed highlights the impact of the banking crisis:
FOMC says tighter credit standards likely to weigh on inflation, economy
QT continues:
The Fed maintains plan to shrink balance sheet each month by as much as $60 billion for Treasuries and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities.
As WSJ Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos notes: “The FOMC statement used language broadly similar to how officials concluded their interest-rate increases in 2006, with no explicit promise of a pause by retaining a bias to tighten.”
This is clearly more of a hawkish pause since it doesn’t suggest whether ‘policy easing’ may be appropriate… but then again, if Powell had gone that far, markets would have panicked over “what does he know”?
Finally, read the full red-line below:
END
END
Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Attempt To Explain If The Pause Is Hawkish Or Dovish
https://WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM/MARKETS/WATCH-LIVE-FED-CHAIR-POWELL-ATTEMPT-PITCH-DOVISH-HIKE
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 02:25 PM
“One and done”?
The Fed statement was a hawkish pause – signaling “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” as opposed to “some additional policy easing may be appropriate.”
Can Fed Chair Powell walk the high-wire again – justifying a ‘pause’ with inflation so high and unemployment so low without spreading fear about the banking system crisis being worse than we know (remember they have seen the latest SLOOS data).
Bear in mind that the market is now massively (and dovishly) divergent from The Fed‘s dot-plots for the end of this year and next year… How will Powell explain that ‘higher for longer’ compared to the market’s belief that cuts are coming fast and many…
Watch Powell explain why the market’s wrong live here (due to start at 1430ET):
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-attempt-pitch-dovish-hike
II) USA DATA//
The usual ebullient ADP does not disappoint us as they report an unexpected surge in private employment to a 9 month high. This is despite a clear slowdomw in pay growth?
(zerohedge)
ADP Payrolls Unexpectedly Surge To 9 Month HIgh Amid “Clear Slowdown In Pay Growth”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 08:32 AM
Following yesterday’s ugly JOLTS data, which was so bad it actually sent stocks lower amid fears of a hard landing, moments ago the ADP – always one to surprise with its shocking wrong data, constant revisions notwithstanding – shocked when it printed showing a huge gain for April private payrolls, which more than doubled from a downward revised 142K print in March to 296K in April.
The April number was not only far above the consensus estimate of 148K and also above the highest forecast of 220K, it was also the biggest monthly increase since July 2022.
While job gains were mostly uniform, there was some regional weakness in the South where 100,000 jobs were lost. Additionally, there was a drop in Manufacturing workers (-38,000), as well as Financial activities (-28,000) and Professional Business services (-16,000).
But while the jump in jobs was a hawkish twist ahead of today’s FOMC, especially with JOLTS indicating the labor market was finally cracking, the latest change in wages was clearly dovish, with wage growth for both job changes and stayers sliding to the lowest since 2021, to wit:
- Job-stayers 6.7%, down from 6.9% in March and lowest since Dec 21
- Job-changers 13.2%, down from 14.2% in March and lowest since Nov 2021
As ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson put it, “The slowdown in pay growth gives the clearest signal of what’s going on in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines. Our data also shows fewer people are switching jobs.”
end
Soft data reports are generally corrupt
(zerohedge)
Services Survey Show Growth In April But Export Demand Is “Reigniting Inflationary Pressures”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 10:07 AM
Despite hard data disappointment, soft survey data for Manufacturing showed an improvement in April and analysts expected the Services sector to do the same with modest gains.
- S&P Global US Services PMI printed 53.6 in April, up from 52.6 in March (but down from the flash print of 53.7)
- ISM Services printed 51.9 in April, up from 51.2 in March, better than the 51.8 expected
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, ISM data shows a rebound in export orders, slowing in employment, and prices sticky (up from last month marginally)
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“April saw an encouraging acceleration of service sector growth which, combined with indications of a renewed upturn in manufacturing, suggests the economy has regained some momentum at the start of the second quarter.
“Companies have reported an improvement in confidence compared to the gloomier picture seen late last year, with service sector companies also benefiting from a post-pandemic tailwind of spending shifting from goods to services, notably among consumers.
“However, there are indications that resurgent demand for services is reigniting inflationary pressures. Average rates charged for services are now rising at the sharpest rate for eight months, as firms report a greater ability to pass increased costs on to customers. This upturn in the service sector selling price gauge hints at a concerningly stubborn stickiness of core inflation.
Finally, Williamson pours some serious cold water on the hope narrative:
“Much of course depends on whether this recovery in demand can persist. Headwinds from higher interest rates and the increased costs of living, combined with the winding down of household savings, suggest the upturn could lose steam in the months ahead.”
The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 53.4 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal a solid upturn in private sector business activity.
The faster expansion in output reflected quicker increases in activity at manufacturing and service sector firms. The rate of growth was the sharpest since May 2022.
Price pressures regained momentum in April, as input costs and output charges rose at sharper rates. The acceleration in inflation was broad based, with service sector firms registering the faster upticks in both costs and charges.
END
Always pay attention to Stanley Druckenmiller
(zerohedge)
Druckenmiller On America’s Debt Crisis: “It’s Like Watching A Horror Movie Unfold”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 09:05 AM
After several days of apocalyptic forecasts by the (self-reported) smartest guys in the room – the room in question being at the Milken conference in LA– about the looming commercial real estate apocalypse which we first laid out two months ago just before it claimed its first victim, Silicon Valley Bank (see “Why Small Banks Are In Big Trouble: As Hedge Funds Pile Into The New “Big Short”, The Next ‘Credit Event’ Emerges“ from March 9), today it was the turn of hedge fund icon Stanley Druckenmiller, a long-time deficit hawk, to turn attention back to the real elephant in the room: unchecked future government spending and America’s gargantuan and runaway debt. Because while the commercial real estate crisis will come and go, those $32 trillion in US debt (growing by $1 trillion every six month) and $200 trillion in off-balance sheet debt, will stay forever… or at least until the US defaults or hyperinflates.
“The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold,” Druckenmiller, who once was George Soros’ chief strategist and now runs his own Duquesne Family Office, said in a speech Monday at the USC Marshall School of Business.
In a follow-up email to Bloomberg, he said he hopes the US government doesn’t go into default, “but honestly, all this focus on the debt ceiling instead of the future fiscal issue is like sitting on the beach at Santa Monica worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there’s a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out.”
According to Bloomberg, Druckenmiller’s comments are similar to the ones the billionaire investor gave a decade ago during a tour of 14 university campuses, when he encouraged students to pay attention to ballooning federal deficits that he believed – correctly – would bankrupt future generations.
He said at the time that the economic storm spurred by reckless spending could dwarf the economic pains of 2008. The situation today “looks much worse than I had imagined 10 years ago,” he said on Monday.
Echoing a long-running concern, Druckenmiller said that the biggest issue facing the US is runaway entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which without cuts today will have to be slashed in the future… but never are as doing so is political suicide.
The investing legend expressed concerns about the Biden administration’s plans to deal with the potential shortfalls, as well as the lack of fiscal restraint by the Republican party, which at least in theory, should represent conservative values.
Spending on seniors will reach 100% of federal tax revenues by 2040 based on Congressional Budget Office estimates, he said, including interest expense. What’s more, the current $31 trillion US debt load doesn’t account for future entitlement payments. Accounting for the present value of that burden, the full US debt load is more like $200 trillion, he estimated.
Druckenmiller also questioned the actions of the Federal Reserve, saying the agency’s easy-money policies over the past decades created reckless behavior in financial markets, government and banks.
“Unfortunately, by still owning a large amount of government debt, the Fed continues to create the false illusion that it can help with our fiscal problems,” he said, reiterating the core tenet of this website since its founding in Jan 2009.
While raising interest rates 5 percentage points in the past year was a move in the right direction — “trying to correct the biggest mistake in Fed history” — Druckenmiller questioned the central bank’s resolve to stick to its guns.
“At the first signs of trouble, the Fed last month, and in just four days, undid most of the small progress they had made in reducing their balance sheet,” he said. “This asymmetric Fed response is what feeds the lack of serious structural action in DC from both sides of the aisle.”
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Our liberties are at stake!
(The Whiteheads)
Disarm The IRS, De-Militarize The Bureaucracy, & Dismantle The Standing Army
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 12:05 AM
Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“There are instruments so dangerous to the rights of the nation and which place them so totally at the mercy of their governors that those governors, whether legislative or executive, should be restrained from keeping such instruments on foot but in well-defined cases. Such an instrument is a standing army.”
– Thomas Jefferson, 1789
What does it say about the state of our freedoms that there are now more pencil-pushing, bureaucratic (non-military) government agents armed with weapons than U.S. Marines?
Among the agencies being supplied with night-vision equipment, body armor, hollow-point bullets, shotguns, drones, assault rifles and LP gas cannons are the IRS, Smithsonian, U.S. Mint, Health and Human Services, FDA, Small Business Administration, Social Security Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Education Department, Energy Department, Bureau of Engraving and Printing and an assortment of public universities.
Add in the Biden Administration’s plans to swell the ranks of the IRS by 87,000 new employees (some of whom will be authorized to use deadly force) and grow the nation’s police forces by 100,000 more cops, and you’ve got a nation in the throes of martial law.
We’re being frog-marched into tyranny at the end of a loaded gun.
Make that hundreds of thousands of loaded guns.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the number of federal agents armed with guns, ammunition and military-style equipment, authorized to make arrests, and trained in military tactics has nearly tripled over the past several decades.
As Adam Andrzejewski writes for Forbes, “the federal government has become one never-ending gun show.”
While Americans have to jump through an increasing number of hoops in order to own a gun, federal agencies have been placing orders for hundreds of millions of rounds of hollow point bullets and military gear.
For example, the IRS has stockpiled 4,500 guns and five million rounds of ammunition in recent years, including 621 shotguns, 539 long-barrel rifles and 15 submachine guns.
The Veterans Administration purchased 11 million rounds of ammunition (equivalent to 2,800 rounds for each of their officers), along with camouflage uniforms, riot helmets and shields, specialized image enhancement devices and tactical lighting.
The Department of Health and Human Services acquired 4 million rounds of ammunition, in addition to 1,300 guns, including five submachine guns and 189 automatic firearms for its Office of Inspector General.
According to an in-depth report on “The Militarization of the U.S. Executive Agencies,” the Social Security Administration secured 800,000 rounds of ammunition for their special agents, as well as armor and guns.
The Environmental Protection Agency owns 600 guns. The Smithsonian now employs 620-armed “special agents.”
Even agencies such as Amtrak and NASA have their own SWAT teams.
Ask yourselves: why are government agencies being turned into military outposts?
What’s with the buildup of SWAT teams within non-security-related federal agencies? Even the Department of Agriculture, the Railroad Retirement Board, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Office of Personnel Management, the Consumer Product Safety Commission, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Education Department have their own SWAT teams. Most of those officers are under the command of either the Department of Homeland Security or the Department of Justice.
Why does the Department of Agriculture need .40 caliber semiautomatic submachine guns and hollow point bullets? For that matter, why do its agents need ballistic vests and body armor?
For that matter, why do IRS agents need AR-15 rifles?
Why do local police need armored personnel carriers with gun ports, compact submachine guns with 30-round magazines, precision battlefield sniper rifles, and military-grade assault-style rifles and carbines?
Why is the federal government distributing obscene amounts of military equipment, weapons and ammunition to police departments around the country?
Why is the military partnering with local police to conduct training drills around the country? And what exactly are they training for? The public has been disallowed from obtaining any information about the purpose of these realistic urban training drills, other than that they might be loud and to not be alarmed.
We should be alarmed.
As James Madison warned, “We are right to take alarm at the first experiment upon our liberties.”
Unfortunately, we’re long past the first experiment on our freedoms, and merely taking alarm over this build-up of military might will no longer suffice.
Nothing about this de facto army of bureaucratic, administrative, non-military, paper-pushing, non-traditional law enforcement agencies is necessary for national security.
Moreover, while these weaponized, militarized, civilian forces which are armed with military-style guns, ammunition and equipment; trained in military tactics; and authorized to make arrests and use deadly force—may look and act like the military, they are not the military.
Rather, they are foot soldiers of the police state’s standing army, and they are growing in number at an alarming rate.
This standing army—a.k.a. a national police force—vested with the power to completely disregard the Constitution and rule by force is exactly what America’s founders feared, and its danger cannot be overstated or ignored.
This is exactly what martial law looks like—when a government disregards constitutional freedoms and imposes its will through military force, only this is martial law without any government body having to declare it: Battlefield tactics. Militarized police. Riot and camouflage gear. Armored vehicles. Mass arrests. Pepper spray. Tear gas. Batons. Strip searches. Drones. Less-than-lethal weapons unleashed with deadly force. Rubber bullets. Water cannons. Concussion grenades. Intimidation tactics. Brute force. Laws conveniently discarded when it suits the government’s purpose.
The militarization of America’s police forces in recent decades, which has gone hand in hand with the militarization of America’s bureaucratic agencies, has merely sped up the timeline by which the nation is transformed into an authoritarian regime.
Now we find ourselves struggling to retain some semblance of freedom in the face of administrative, police and law enforcement agencies that look and act like the military with little to no regard for the Fourth Amendment, laws such as the NDAA that allow the military to arrest and indefinitely detain American citizens, and military drills that acclimate the American people to the sight of armored tanks in the streets, military encampments in cities, and combat aircraft patrolling overhead.
This quasi-state of martial law has been helped along by government policies and court rulings that have made it easier for the police to shoot unarmed citizens, for law enforcement agencies to seize cash and other valuable private property under the guise of asset forfeiture, for military weapons and tactics to be deployed on American soil, for government agencies to carry out round-the-clock surveillance, for legislatures to render otherwise lawful activities as extremist if they appear to be anti-government, for profit-driven private prisons to lock up greater numbers of Americans, for homes to be raided and searched under the pretext of national security, for American citizens to be labeled terrorists and stripped of their rights merely on the say-so of a government bureaucrat, and for pre-crime tactics to be adopted nationwide that strip Americans of the right to be assumed innocent until proven guilty and creates a suspect society in which we are all guilty until proven otherwise.
Don’t delude yourself into believing that this thinly-veiled exercise in martial law is anything other than an attempt to bulldoze what remains of the Constitution and reinforce the iron-fisted rule of the police state.
This is no longer about partisan politics or civil unrest or even authoritarian impulses.
This is a turning point.
As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we are sliding fast down a slippery slope to a Constitution-free America.
If we are to have any hope of salvaging what’s left of our battered freedoms, we’d do well to start by disarming the IRS and the rest of the federal and state bureaucratic agencies, de-militarizing domestic police forces, and dismantling the police state’s standing army.
END
Please explain how this major company could be so stupid….
(zerohedge)
“We’ve Never Seen Such A Dramatic Shift”: Bud Light Hopes New Ad Blitz Can Overcome Corporate Suicide
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 03:00 PM
Bud Light parent company Anheuser-Busch is desperately scrambling to rehabilitate their image following corporate suicide over a transgender ad campaign featuring TikTok influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
In order to make amends with distributors after off-site sales fell 26.1% in the week ending April 22 vs. one year ago, the company has pledged to boost marketing spending on Bud Light and accelerate production of a new slate of ads, according to the Wall Street Journal, which adds that Anheuser-Busch will give a ‘case of Bud Light to every employee’ of a wholesaler.
Meanwhile, sales of rival brands Coors Light and Miller Light each grew 21% during the same period ending April 22.
The efforts are continuing a month after Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender social-media star, spoke in an Instagram video about a personalized can of Bud Light that the brewer had sent her as a gift. The April 1 post sparked a boycott that caused sales to plummet for both Anheuser-Busch and its independently owned distributors. The distributors’ employees, many of whom drive trucks bearing the Bud Light logo, were confronted by angry people on streets, in stores and in bars. -WSJ
The deterioration of Bud Light’s market share “continued apace through the third week of April — and actually somehow worsened. We’ve never seen such a dramatic shift in national share in such a short period of time,” according to Beer Business Daily.
The fallout has spread to other Anheuser-Busch brands as well, including Budweiser, Busch Light, and Michelob Ultra, according to Bump Williams.
“It sent shock waves through distributors,” according to Jeff Wheeler, vice president of marketing for Del Papa Distributing near Houston, Texas, adding that his staff has fielded “tons of phone calls from people being very hateful.”
Two Bud Light marketing executives have been placed on administrative leave in the wake of the controversy.
Marketing Vice President Alissa Heinerscheid took a leave of absence after the Daily Caller reported on photos of her at a college party following comments she made slamming Bud Light’s customer for being “fratty.” Budweiser reportedly announced Sunday that Daniel Blake, group vice president for marketing at Anheuser-Busch, was also taking a leave of absence. –Daily Caller
After three weeks of social media silence, Mulvaney posted a TikTok video mansplaining that he wishes he could be reincarnated as someone “non-confrontational and uncontroversial.”
“I don’t know if reincarnation is a thing, but in my next life I would love to be someone non-confrontational and uncontroversial — God that sounds nice!” he said, adding “The good news is that the people pleaser in me has nearly died, because there’s clearly no way of winning over everyone.”
Mulvaney has also inked advertising deals with Instacart, Nativ, Ulta Beauty, Nike, and others.
Anheuser-Busch will report quarterly earnings on Thursday. We’re sure they’ll receive some interesting analyst questions… and of course a big question on everyone’s mind; will they cut outlook?
END
A great article suggesting that 14 million jobs will be slashed globally by 2027 due to AI and the stupid ESG standards. So says the criminal WEF!!
(Roberts/EpochTimes)
14 Million Jobs Will Be Slashed Globally By 2027 Owing To AI And ESG Standards: WEF
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:45 PM
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned that the employment landscape will change drastically over the next five years amid increasingly widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI), the transition to green energy, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, and slower economic growth.
According to WEF’s “The Future of Jobs Report 2023,” roughly 23 percent of jobs are expected to change by 2027, with around 69 million new jobs to be created and 83 million eliminated, resulting in a decrease of 14 million jobs, or 2 percent of current employment.
The report (pdf) surveyed 803 companies collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers in 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from across the globe, on macro and technology trends and their impact on jobs and skills, as well as the “workforce transformation strategies” that businesses plan to implement between now and 2027.
It found that clerical or secretarial roles, including bank tellers, cashiers and ticket clerks, data entry clerks, postal service clerks, and administrative and executive secretaries will likely see the fastest decline in roles over the next five years relative to their size today, with roughly 26 million fewer jobs by 2027.
Meanwhile, certain tech jobs, including those focused on AI and machine learning, sustainability specialists, business intelligence analysts, information security specialists, and fintech engineers, are expected to see an increase in employment.
Overall, the biggest job growth will likely be seen across the fields of education (10 percent, leading to 3 million additional jobs), agriculture (30 percent, or 3 million additional jobs), and digital commerce and trade (4 million additional jobs), according to the report.
Renewable Energy, ESG Pushing Job Changes
The WEF cites trends such as the transition to renewable energy, ESG standards—which are used by companies in the investment decision-making process to measure sustainable and ethical impacts—advancing technology adoption, and localization of supply chains as the “leading drivers of job growth,” while economic challenges such as ongoing high inflation, slower economic growth, and supply shortages pose “the greatest threat” to job creation.
“The largest job creation and destruction effects come from environmental, technology, and economic trends. Among the macro trends listed, businesses predict the strongest net job-creation effect to be driven by investments that facilitate the green transition of businesses, the broader application of ESG standards, and supply chains becoming more localized, albeit with job growth offset by partial job displacement in each case,” the report states.
U.S. Republican lawmakers have repeatedly warned that companies embracing ESG standards risk slashing investment returns and hampering economic growth, which could have ripple effects across the economy.
“Climate change adaptation and the demographic dividend in developing and emerging economies also rate high as net job creators,” the WEF report adds. “Technological advancement through increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and increased digital access are expected to drive job growth in more than half of surveyed companies, offset by expected job displacement in one-fifth of companies,” it continues.
The report also cites the increasing cost of living for consumers as another factor that will likely pose the greatest threat to the job market in the next five years and will significantly displace jobs.
Firms ‘Need to Be Ready for the Disruptions Ahead’
Elsewhere, the WEF found that the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, increased geopolitical divisions, and demographic dividends in developing and emerging economies ranked lower as drivers of business evolution by respondents.
The latest report comes shortly after Goldman Sachs economists forecast two-thirds of occupations across America could be partially automated by AI, which has exploded in use in recent years, despite concerns over its potential risks to society and humanity.
However, economists also noted that its use in both business and society could lead to an almost $7 trillion increase in global GDP owing to increased productivity and manufacturing, among other factors.
According to the WEF report, nearly 75 percent of companies surveyed plan to adopt AI, big data, and cloud computing within the next five years, which around 50 percent of firms believe will create job growth and 25 percent expect will lead to job losses.
Elsewhere, the report found that organizations estimate roughly 34 percent of all business-related tasks are currently performed by machines, with the remaining 66 percent performed by humans.
“The latest findings in the Future of Jobs Report renew calls for action from all labor market stakeholders,” said Sander van ‘t Noordende, CEO of the human resource consulting firm, Randstad.
“Acceleration in digitalization, AI, and automation are creating tremendous opportunities for the global workforce, but employers, governments, and other organizations need to be ready for the disruptions ahead. By collectively offering greater skilling resources, more efficiently connecting talent to jobs, and advocating for a well-regulated labor market, we can protect and prepare workers for a more specialized and equitable future of work,” he added.
END
Stephen Roth’s Vornado Realty Trust, a huge investor of real estate in Manhattan is in trouble
(zerohedge)
Billionaire Steven Roth’s Mega Manhattan Redevelopment Project Battered By CRE Turmoil
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 09:45 PM
The billionaire head of Vornado Realty Trust is facing an uncertain future regarding his multi-billion dollar investment plan to build “gleaming office skyscrapers around Manhattan’s universally hated Penn Station,” according to Bloomberg. The uncertainty comes as the regional banking crisis has sparked a painful credit crunch already battering commercial real estate.
“We’re going to take a breath,” stated Chief Executive Steven Roth during Vornado’s quarterly earnings call on Tuesday. He maintained the plan to continue investing upwards of $2 billion in redeveloping over 5 million square feet in what he calls “Penn District.” Vornado’s redevelopment plan to build new office buildings and refurbish older ones is a bet to capitalize off the modernization of Penn Station.
Roth has spent the last two decades acquiring plots of land around the train station in Manhattan. The billionaire saw the potential for an area of the city to flourish once redevelopment projects were completed, but have since been overshadowed by high office vacancy rates in a post-Covid environment, along with a regional banking crisis that has spread to commercial real estate.
Shares of his Vornado plunged to a 27-year low last week when the tradeable REIT of office, retail, and residential buildings surprised investors with an announcement about delaying its dividend to preserve cash.
We have repeatedly shown readers big banks such as JPM, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have all joined our CRE gloom parade as rumblings in the office space market emerge.
It is an unfavorable time for office property owners, particularly for those like Roth’s company, which is constructing office skyscrapers. Amid all of the gathering storm clouds in the office space market, a critical question arises if the real estate mogul can still deliver on the Penn District project.
“Roth has missed the bus, and the bus isn’t coming back until 2030 or beyond,” said Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban policy at New York University, referring to the downturn in the CRE space, primarily office buildings.
It was only last year when Roth told analysts on an earnings call he was “doubly and triply excited about the Penn District.” But that excitement has evaporated in a rising interest rate environment and tightening credit conditions over the past year. Roth said earlier this year that new construction is “almost impossible” because of tight lending.
Meanwhile, office space vacancy rates in New York remain at alarming highs, while companies are reducing headcount and footprint to save on costs, subsequently reducing their demand for office space.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jeffrey Langbaum said Vornado’s Penn District buildings will need to “sustain leasing demand by creating space that appeals to tenants looking to migrate to newer, higher-quality properties.”
According to Alexander Goldfarb, an analyst at Piper Sandler, Vornado faces a series of challenges, including high debt costs and low rent prospects that could present challenges in the completion of Penn District.
Here’s an idea: Vornado might want to consider constructing apartment buildings instead of office space amid the CRE downturn.
END
Another dumb move by a big corporation: Fox can never replace Tucker Carlson as the viewership recedes big time
(Li/EpochTimes)
Fox Can’t Replace Tucker Carlson: Victor Davis Hanson
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 08:45 PM
Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Fox News executives miscalculated in their sudden decision to oust the network’s most popular prime-time host, Tucker Carlson, according to Victor Davis Hanson, a historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
“One of the messages the Murdochs are not quite understanding [is] that when you take away somebody who had a greater potential elsewhere and was a precious asset that anchored your whole evening lineup, and you fired him in a fit of pique, or anger, without thinking it through, you’ve gotta be very careful, because you’re not gonna be able to replace a guy like that,” Victor Davis Hanson told The Telegraph on April 29.
A week after Carlson’s abrupt exit, why the popular prime-time host left the network remains a mystery.
A brief statement issued by Fox News said only that the two “have agreed to part ways” and “We thank him for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor.”
Carson’s last broadcast was on April 21. During his final on-air segment, Carlson told his audience that he would be back on Monday.
While the network has parted with several popular news personalities like Bill O’Reilly and Megyn Kelly, the case for Carson was different, according to Hanson.
“Before they fired him, they thought ‘Fox is bigger than any one anchor: We fired Bill O’Reilly. And guess what? Tucker showed up, and he has the same size of audience or bigger,’” he said. “We can do that because people tune into us because [of] the brand.
“But I don’t think they understand it’s not quite like that. It’s cumulative: It’s like a cut, a cut, a cut, and each one magnifies the prior one. So when you get rid of Bill O’Reilly, and you get rid of Megyn Kelly … you go up and down, and Newsmax and competitors creep in and grab your audience.
“I don’t think that there was a serious cause of firing him other than an emotional one,” Hanson said.
On April 26, Carlson broke the silence with a video posted on Twitter that drew some 23 million views, exceeding the number of viewers of his old prime-time show on the cable news channel.
Hanson suggested Carlson doesn’t really need to go on television. Instead, the media figure, like his former colleague Megyn Kelly, could pursue an independent route.
“Even though Tucker was supposedly getting two more years at $20 million a year, given his appeal and talents, he could probably make more than that with his own venue,” he said, adding that the media business is “fragmented.”
But Fox News “needed Tucker Carlson to appeal to the new Republican Party,” Hanson noted.
“What do I mean by that? He was talking about the absurdity of woke, and I don’t where you find somebody like that, who has the ability to articulate those positions but is not crazy,” he continued.
“Tucker came from one of the wealthiest families in California. He was an aristocrat … So for him, brought up like that as an aristocrat, to become a populist and yet know how the aristocratic mind works, is very unusual.”
Hanson estimated the “big vacuum” created by Carlson’s departure was about 3.5 million viewers, breathing life into rival conservative networks.
Following Carlson’s exit, Newsmax drew doubled viewers at the 8 p.m. EST slot, Hanson said, adding that Fox News’ parent company lost $800 million in market value after the April 24 announcement.
“I’m not sure that they can find somebody like that to come in … that is funny and affable and knowledgeable.”
Now that the network is taking rating hits after Carlson’s exit, leftists are celebrating.
“They’re in celebration now. AOC [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] and people are saying things like, ‘We don’t believe in cancel culture, but we got him canceled.’ That’s what they’re saying. They think they took him down.
“They criticize him every day. They said he was a racist. They said he was a transphobe, homophobe, and they think that eventually they got … For that slot should have been making hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising, but they were able to cut his revenues by 30 or 40 percent, by boycotts, pressuring corporations that they were going to boycott them if they bought time.
“They feel that that’s a paradigm that now is successful. And they’re going to use it.”
The Epoch Times has reached out to Fox News for comment.
END
Now he blows his whistle? Biden is sending 1500 troops to the southern border to deal with the surge of illegal immigrants.
(zerohedge)
Biden Sending 1,500 Troops To Southern Border To Deal With Surge Of Illegal Immigrants
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 07:35 PM
By Joseph Lord of The Epoch Times
The United States will be sending troops to the southern border with Mexico, the White House announced on May 2. The move was unveiled ahead of an expected surge of illegal immigrants as pandemic restrictions, known as Title 42, are set to lift on May 11.
The southern border has been hammered over the past two years by an unprecedented influx of illegal immigrants, leaving border control authorities struggling to keep up with limited resources.
Pentagon Press Secretary Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed in a Tuesday press conference that the Pentagon would be sending 1,500 U.S. military personnel “to supplement” Border Patrol resources for 90 days. Ryder suggested this could be extended as the need arises.
These 1,500 troops “will fill critical capability gaps, such as ground-based detection and monitoring, data entry, and warehouse support until CBP [Customs and Border Protection] can address these needs through contracted support.”
“Military personnel will not directly participate in law enforcement activities,” Ryder added.
While the first wave of troops will be drawn from active-duty personnel, Ryder said that the Pentagon was looking into other options, including potentially pulling from reserves.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday that the move was made in the hopes of freeing Border Patrol agents up to focus on apprehending illegal immigrants crossing the border.
Under President Donald Trump, military servicemembers performed similar functions at the border. When Trump deployed troops to the border in 2018, Democrats blasted the move as a “politicization” of the military. This time however, in comments to reporters, Jean-Pierre said that the deployment was “common practice.”
“DoD personnel have been supporting [Customs and Border Protection] at the border for almost two decades now,” she said, referring to the Department of Defense.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in a statement Tuesday, said the additional forces would help “to reduce irregular migration, ensure safe, orderly, and efficient processing, and promptly remove individuals without a legal basis to remain in the United States.”
Currently, 2,500 troops are serving in some capacity along the border. The addition of 1,500 new troops, nearly a twofold increase, comes days ahead of the end of Title 42, a COVID-era immigration rule making it easier for illegal aliens to be turned away at the border.
DHS added that Customs and Border Protection’s investment in new technology and personnel will reduce the need for such assistance moving forward.
Despite an unprecedented flow of illegal migrants across the border, the administration has long refrained from using the word “crisis” to describe the situation.
President Joe Biden and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas have each insisted that the border is secure and under operational control.
The decision to send troops to the border comes as Republicans prepare a series of legislation addressing immigration problems along the border.
Read more here.
END
A good read…..where we may be heading
Brandon Smith//
Blaming Conservatives For Collapse: Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t On The Debt Ceiling
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 06:45 PM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us
In 2021 I published an article titled ‘The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error’ in which I outlined the deliberately engineered trap the Federal Reserve has created for the American economy. Specifically, I confronted the issue of strangled liquidity through increasing debt costs vs continued money printing and inflation.
It’s an issue that Jerome Powell warned about in 2012, years before he became Fed Chairman; the consequences of creating a stimulus dependent system and then abruptly cutting off the life support. As soon as he was installed as the head of the central bank he implemented the very policies he predicted would cause a crash.
The result? We just saw the beginning of the end with the latest banking crisis involving companies like SVB, First Republic and Credit Suisse – It’s not just US finances, but banks around the world that rely on liquidity injections from the Fed to stay afloat. The central bankers addicted the system to cheap easy debt and now they are taking away the drugs.
In other words, no one can honestly argue that the central banks are ignorant or unaware of the threat. They KNOW what’s about to happen and they do not care. But why does the establishment want a crisis now instead of five years ago, or five years in the future?
Thankfully, much of the public is becoming aware of the various programs to introduce CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), but what they may not understand is the manner in which such massive economic changes usually happen. Generally speaking, in order to institute a new economic system the banks have to take down the old system.
The last time we saw this happen was just after the Great Depression and WWII. The deflationary crash and the war conjured the proper amount of global chaos and before the dust settled western nations instituted the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944, making the dollar the defacto world reserve currency while locking down the price of gold.. Then they established the globalist International Monetary Fund (IMF) the same year and the United Nations in 1945. The world was centralized dramatically in a little over a decade.
I believe we are fast approaching another engineered singularity, a controlled demolition of existing systems to make way for a cashless society, a one world currency and global governance. I believe this because it’s all the globalists can talk about these days; it’s not as if they’re trying to hide it anymore.
The BIS and IMF are actively fielding one-world digital currency mechanisms right now; structures that would combine all national CBDCs under one umbrella. In the meantime, globalist think-tanks like the WEF (World Economic Forum) are ranting excessively about the coming era of an AI controlled economy and a “4th Industrial Revolution” in which you will “own nothing, have no privacy” and will be forced to adapt to a cashless socialist sharing system.
All they need is a scapegoat to complete their crisis formula. War seems to work well in distracting the masses from the true culprits behind any financial calamity, and numerous institutions are hard at work to convince the public that countries like Russia are to blame for ongoing stagflation problems. Of course, the stagflation crisis started well before the war in Ukraine and many Americans are not buying the spin.
China, a dedicated partner to the globalist project, has shown consistent fealty to the IMF and is a key player in the move towards a one-world currency system. Because they are the largest importer/exporter on the planet and have considerable leverage over the US dollar, they have the ability to strike the final blow against the dollar’s world reserve status. A heightened conflict with China would be a perfect cover for the dumping of the Greenback, making way for the IMF’s new global currency, called the UMU (Universal Monetary Unit).
However, foreign conflagrations will not be enough for the establishment to keep the American public from scrutinizing the narrative. They need a domestic enemy, a frightening threat that lives right next door. That is to say, they need to find a way to blame conservatives and liberty activists for the impending crash that they caused.
Keep in mind that the Biden Administration and the leftist media have been pumping out propaganda asserting that all our fiscal problems including our national debt are somehow rooted in conservative policies. This is nonsense.
At bottom, the majority of our economic threats can be traced directly back to the Federal Reserve as well as large international banks, and these institutions enact policy REGARDLESS of the political party that is in control of the government. But, if we’re going to talk about the political group that has most helped the central bankers set the calamity in motion, the Democrats win the prize.
It was Barack Obama and Joe Biden that doubled the US national debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the span of 8 years. Trump didn’t help matters and did not institute spending cuts at the level he should have, but the bulk of his debt contributions occurred because of the covid response. There are a number of issues to criticize Trump for, including the kinds of people he brought into his cabinet, but the current economic chaos is not rooted in anything Trump did.
It was the Biden White House that pressed for covid lockdown policies to stay in place for years when they should have been ended within months as soon as it became clear the covid virus was a non-threat to 99.8% of the population. Biden and the Democrats made it impossible for the country to continue functioning without trillions in covid helicopter money, and it was those fiat measures that finally broke the camel’s back. Prices on everything skyrocketed under Biden, not Trump.
The majority of our national debt problems were piled up during the reign of Democrats, and they CONTINUE to demand trillions more in spending without conditions. This brings us to the debt ceiling.
In the past, the debt ceiling debate has been a predictable farce. Republicans demand cuts, they haggle with the Democrats who want a blank check, nothing is ever really resolved and the debt ceiling gets raised yet again with no noticeable reductions in spending. The government keeps stealing from the American public at an exponential rate while also triggering more inflation.
It’s a Catch-22 for conservatives. No one in the mainstream criticizes the Democrats for wanting to spend more because most people don’t understand how inflation works. All the Dems have to do is agree to reasonable budget cuts, but they refuse. When they don’t allow cuts, the Republicans are forced to either cave in, which makes them look weak, or, they’re forced to stand their ground and be accused of reckless disregard for American debt obligations.
Democrats claim that ANY cuts to the budget will lead to economic crisis. They have no intention of negotiating to reduce US debt. They don’t have to – All the blame falls on conservatives regardless.
To be sure, there are multiple Neocon politicians that support the Democrats at every turn, but there are also some Republicans trying to pull the country back from the brink. We should give these people credit. It’s easy to accuse all political participants of being part of the “false left/right paradigm,”, and maybe that was true ten years ago, but now I suspect this mantra is being exploited to divide conservatives and liberty proponents from any alliances at the government level.
The leftist argument on the debt ceiling is essentially this: “We must keep spending more to fix the problems created by spending too much.”
It’s a circular con job. Pursuing budget cuts is portrayed as an act of terrorism by the corporate media. Saving taxpayer money is considered evil, and conservatives who entertain the notion are painted as insurrectionists. Why is no one criticizing the Democrats and their all-or-nothing philosophy? After all, budget cuts can be made while ALSO paying off the national debt, right?
The tactic makes sense if you look at it from a villain’s perspective. All the Democrats have to do is not allow any cuts and continue to demand more spending without conditions. Then, when the contingent of Republicans in Congress that actually care about fiscal responsibility refuses to back down, the White House, the media and the majority of leftists initiate a propaganda wave; an artificial outcry suggesting that “radical” conservatives are destroying the economy.
If the conservatives give in, then the public blames them for bowing to the “Uniparty.” If they don’t give in, the establishment wraps up the stagflationary collapse and lays it right in our laps. They may try to force the issue of a debt ceiling impasse just to hide the crash that is happening anyway.
Or, maybe not. Maybe this time is like all the other times and Republicans will back down yet again and the ceiling is raised by another couple trillion dollars. The talking points I’m seeing in the media and on social media, though, suggest to me that something very strange is about to happen in the debt fight. If it goes down the way I suspect, then it will be vitally important to disrupt the narrative.
The economy is crashing for a lot of reasons and none of them have anything to do with the government trying to spend less.
end
The Banking Collapse Of 2023 Is Now Officially Bigger Than The Banking Collapse Of 2008
WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 01:20 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Yes, you read the headline correctly.
Collectively, the three big banks that have collapsed in 2023 had more assets than all 25 banks that collapsed in 2008 did.
2008 saw the peak in terms of asset-size for bank failures ($373.6 billion with ‘only’ 25 failures), while 2010 saw the peak in number of banks failing (157 vs 25 in 2008).
So far in 2023, 3 banks have failed with combined assets of $548.5 billion.
Even including the $170.9 billion in assets from failed banks in 2009, 2023 is still worse than the two ‘great financial crisis’ years combined.
Unfortunately, the banking collapse of 2023 is far from over.
We still have eight more months to go before this year is done, and many more banks are currently teetering on the brink of disaster. Executives at those banks are telling us not to worry, but of course executives at First Republic were issuing similar assurances just last week. Personally, I had heard that First Republic supposedly had enough reserves to keep going for months. But that was a lie, and now First Republic is toast. The following comes from the official statement that the FDIC issued when it took over the bank…
First Republic Bank, San Francisco, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect depositors, the FDIC is entering into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, Columbus, Ohio, to assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank.
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association submitted a bid for all of First Republic Bank’s deposits. As part of the transaction, First Republic Bank’s 84 offices in eight states will reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, today during normal business hours. All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits.
The government was not going to allow just anyone to snap up the assets of First Republic.
JPMorgan Chase was one of the institutions that was invited to make a bid, and they came out of this process as the big winners…
JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month. The bank is taking on $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to absorb most of the losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan is getting, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.
In addition to providing JPMorgan Chase with a 50 billion dollar credit line, the FDIC will also take a loss on this deal of approximately 13 billion dollars. So they are definitely one of the big losers in this deal…
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion. This is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.
Needless to say, the biggest losers of all are the shareholders of First Republic.
They got completely wiped out…
Stockholders got bailed in and wiped out. They’d already been mostly wiped out by Friday evening in one of the most spectacular stock plunges ever.
Holders of the unsecured subordinated bank notes got bailed in and wiped out just about entirely. This is a form of preferred stock. For example, the 4.625% bank notes, issued in 2017, traded at less than 2 cents on the dollar this morning, another spectacular plunge.
As I have always warned, you only make money in the stock market if you get out in time.
Shareholders of First Republic found that out the hard way.
In comments that he made after the deal was consummated, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon boldly declared that “this part of the crisis is over”…
“There are only so many banks that were offsides this way,” Dimon told analysts in a call shortly after the deal was announced.
“There may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all,” Dimon said. “This part of the crisis is over.”
And the U.S. Treasury is telling us that the U.S. banking system “remains sound and resilient”…
‘The banking system remains sound and resilient, and Americans should feel confident in the safety of their deposits and the ability of the banking system to fulfil its essential function of providing credit to businesses and families,’ a Treasury spokesperson said.
Does reading that make you feel better?
It shouldn’t.
They always offer such platitudes before things start getting really bad.
As I noted at the beginning of this article, the three banks that have collapsed so far this year were collectively bigger than all of the banks that collapsed in 2008 combined…
The three banks held a combined total of $532 billion in assets, which – according to the New York Times and when adjusted for inflation – is more than the $526 billion held by all the US banks that collapsed in 2008 at the peak of the financial crisis.
We are only one-third of the way through 2023.
And as Charlie Munger recently observed, many of our banks are absolutely packed with “bad loans” right now…
Charlie Munger believes there is trouble ahead for the U.S. commercial property market.
The 99-year-old investor told the Financial Times that U.S. banks are packed with “bad loans” that will be vulnerable as “bad times come” and property prices fall.
He is quite correct.
In particular, the collapse of commercial real estate prices threatens to create a massive tsunami of defaults…
Berkshire Hathaway, where Munger serves as vice chairman, has largely stayed on the fringe of the crisis despite its history of supporting American banks through times of turmoil. Munger, who is also Warren Buffett’s longtime investment partner, suggested that Berkshire’s restraint is partially due to risks that could emerge from banks’ numerous commercial property loans.
“A lot of real estate isn’t so good anymore,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centers, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”
As I keep telling my readers, we really are on the verge of the largest commercial real estate crash in all of U.S. history.
And as mountains of commercial real estate loans go bad, a lot more banks will start to go under.
The “too big to fail” banks will scoop up those that they like, while others are simply liquidated and go out of existence.
Ultimately, I believe that we are going to see a wave of consolidation in the banking industry like we never have before.
We are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis. Much worse is yet to come.
It is going to take a while for all the dominoes to fall, but each time another one tumbles over it will be a sign that the clock is ticking and that time is running out for the U.S. financial system.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
END
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Watch: Democrats Have No Interest In Voting For Joe Biden Again In 2024
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 11:05 PM
The only reason to vote for Biden? He’s not Trump. This is the sentiment repeated across America as millions of Democrats say they would rather opt out of the Biden train and find a different candidate by 2024. Of course, this was the same view many leftists vocalized in 2020, but they voted for him anyway.
Whether or not you believe that federal elections matter in the slightest, it’s important to point out that Biden is perhaps one of the least liked presidents in recent memory, and one that sparks zero enthusiasm from his political base. Despite an increasing woke fanaticism among leftists in terms of ideology and Biden doing everything in his power to push their agenda, a majority of Democrat voters (52%) still do not want Biden to run for office again next year.
It appears that the embarrassment is becoming too much for them…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-democrats-have-no-interest-voting-joe-biden-again-2024
END
this should be interesting..
Judge Orders Hunter Biden To Provide Details On Income From Artwork, Investments, Gifts
TUESDAY, MAY 02, 2023 – 10:05 PM
Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden may have paid the mother of his 4-year-old daughter up to $750,000 in child support since March 2020, said one of his attorneys at a hearing.
Hunter Biden appeared in Independence County Circuit Court in Batesville, Arkansas, on May 1 as ordered by the judge overseeing the child support dispute between the president’s 53-year-old son and Lunden Roberts. Roberts is the Arkansas woman who, according to court filings, had a relationship with Hunter and gave birth to a baby girl in August 2018. She sued for support in 2019.
At first Hunter Biden denied that the child was his, but a DNA test confirmed he is the father.
On March 12, 2020, he and Roberts agreed to an undisclosed amount in monthly child support to begin on April 1, 2020. Terms of the agreement are sealed because they contain sensitive personal information, including the amount of monthly support and each party’s source of income.
Hunter Biden asked the court to review the child support arrangement the following September because his financial status had changed.
Lawyer Reveals Monthly Payment
During a discussion of the discovery process, Hunter Biden’s attorney, Abbe David Lowell, said his client has been paying $20,000 monthly, more than $700,000 since the support order was signed.
Judge Holly Meyer clarified during the May 1 hearing that any information discussed in open court was a matter of public record.
Lowell’s remarks came after he and attorney Brent Langdon of Dallas, Texas, complained that news outlets had published information from sealed court files. He said news reports referenced tax files, information on Hunter Biden’s cars, and other things that had been redacted.
“How is it that things that are redacted in the file are released to the Daily Mail? There are matters that are being redacted that are getting out to the daily news,” Langdon said.
Meyer said that, without proof someone was illegally releasing information, there was little she could do. Journalists and the public often speculate on matters and may come close to guessing what is in a sealed file, she added.
‘Can’t Gag the World’
“If the press comes up with those things, I can’t control that. I can’t gag the world,” Meyer said.
The judge ordered Hunter Biden to provide information on his income from his artwork, investments, employment, gifts from friends, and other sources. She also ordered Roberts to provide information on the value of her property and income while working with her father’s business.
The dispute until now has been mostly a battle of lawyers, with neither of the litigants appearing in court. Hunter Biden’s lawyers have filed at least five motions to delay the process including a last-minute attempt to delay the May 1, 2023 hearing.
Meyer denied that motion.
“All parties are to physically appear for all future court hearings in this matter. The parties will no longer have their appearances excused,” Meyer wrote in her order.
Motions Must Be Filed Correctly
Roberts’ lawyers have asked the court to find Hunter Biden in contempt and jail him for refusing to comply with previous orders, and provide requested discovery information.
Meyer wrote that those matters would be dealt with once everyone was in the courtroom.
In subsequent filings, Roberts’ attorneys complained that the Biden team was dragging its feet in the discovery process. They claim Hunter Biden is living a “lavish lifestyle.”
During the May 1 hearing, Meyer said the contempt request needed to be appropriately filed. She added that she couldn’t rule on the amount of child support because neither side provided enough information in the discovery process to move ahead.
The judge went through a to-do list so each side knew what they were expected to do in order to proceed.
One issue has been the role Hunter Biden’s laptop would play in the process. Roberts’ lawyers reportedly believe the laptop contains important financial information. The Biden lawyers have refused even to acknowledge that the computer belongs to their client. Meyer said all these issues would be addressed as long as each side does what it needs to do to advance the case.
Warning the lawyers that her patience had worn thin, Meyer said she would hold them to the agreed-to schedule.
“I expect this case to move. I will ride herd on you, gentlemen.”
END
Another good read from Graham Summers on the plight of regional banks
(Graham Summers)
What Happened Yesterday… and Why Regional Banks Are in Trouble
| By Graham Summers, MBA Thus far in 2023, there have been three major bank failures. And I do mean MAJOR: all told the three banks had $532 billion in assets. That amount is actually greater in size that the combined assets of the 25 banks that failed in 2008.What is going on here?What is going on is that the Fed created this mess… and bad risk management at the banks has exacerbated it.Let me explain.Traditionally, banks make money as follows:1) You deposit your money at the bank.2) The bank pays you a low interest rate on this deposit.3) The bank turns around and loans out $5, $7, even $10 in loans for every $1 you deposited. The bank charges a much higher rate of interest on these loans than the interest rate it pays you on your deposit.4) Alternatively, the bank buys $5, $7, or even $10 in long-duration assets (Treasuries, or other long-term bonds) for every $1 you deposited.5) The bank pockets the spread between the interest it earns on its loans/ bonds and the interest rate is pays you on your deposits.This situation works well provided the Fed keeps interest rates low. Unfortunately for the banks, the Fed unleashed inflation by printing ~$5 TRILLION between 2020 and 2022.Bond yields trade based on many things… including inflation. And once inflation entered the financial system, Treasury yields ripped higher. |
| When Treasury yields rise, bond prices FALL. And who was sitting on trillions of dollars’ worth of long-term Treasuries and loans that traded based on long-term Treasuries?You guessed it… the regional banks.Courtesy of the Fed’s idiocy, the banks were destined to be sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of losses on these assets.But it gets worse.Once the Fed finally decided to get off its rear and do something about inflation, it embarked on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in history, raising rates from 0.25% to 5% in the span of a single year.Why does this matter?Remember how banks pay you a low interest rate on your deposit? Well who is going to want to keep his or her money in a bank that pays 0.3% at best… when he or she can earn 4% or even 5% in a money market fund or short-term Treasury bond, courtesy of the Fed raising rates so high so fast ?And so, depositors began pulling their money from banks… and not by a little: 2022 was the first year since 1945 in which money on a NET BASIS left the banking system in the U.S.But hang on… remember how the bank loaned out or bought $5, $7, or even $10 worth of loans or long-term assets based on every $1 you deposited in the bank? Well when you pull your money out of the bank, the bank has to unload all that stuff to maintain its capital requirements.And so, the Fed delivered the ultimate 1-2 punch to the U.S. regional banking system.The first punch was it ignored inflation to the point that the banks were sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of losses.However, the KO punch was the Fed raised rates aggressively, which resulted in depositors pulling money out of the banks in search of higher returns on their cash.Now, don’t get me wrong. The banks are partially to blame for the fact that didn’t act once the Fed announced it would be raising rates to end inflation. With proper risk management (bond hedges for instance) these banks would have been better prepared for the bond market massacre of 2022.However, even careful risk management would have done nothing to help these banks once depositors started pulling their money out. And no bank could raise its deposit rates to 4% or 5% to compete with money market funds or short-term Treasuries while staying in business.And so we get this: a situation in which MAJOR regional banks are going bust and the regional bank ETF has lost a third of its value in the span of six weeks. |
 |
| This situation is nowhere near over. According to some analysis, HALF of the U.S.’s banks are currently insolvent.The clock is ticking here. Ignore trader games, something BAD is coming to the markets. |
| Many investors will lose everything… but you don’t have to be one of them. |
END
THE KING REPORT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING ED DOWD:
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CV19 Bioweapon Caused a Pandemic of the Vaccinated – Ed Dowd
CV19 Bioweapon Caused a Pandemic of the Vaccinated – Ed Dowd
By Greg Hunter On May 3, 2023 In Market AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Ed Dowd was a money manager on Wall Street and is still a skillful number cruncher. He worked for Black Rock and made billions of dollars in profits by being right on the data. Now, Dowd has turned his skills toward the numbers of deaths and serious injuries surrounding the CV19 bioweapon vax. He sees a very dark and disturbing future taking shape. Dowd explains, “We did our vaccine damage report after months and months of collecting data. There are three buckets. There are the dead, disabled and injured. The dead is easy enough to find . . . it’s excess mortality. In 2021 and 2022, it’s over 300,000 deaths, and that’s probably on the low side. There are 1.36 million disabled from the vax, and that is a conservative number. Finally, 26.6 million people are injured. . . . Antidotally, it is all making sense. Everyone is reporting coworkers that are chronically ill and sick. The worktime data is really the smoking gun. It went 13 standard deviations above the 20-year trendline in 2022. . . . It went up in 2020, and then it went up again in 2021, but it exploded in 2022 well after the virus and well into the CV19 vaccine program. It is a stunning a 13 standard deviation event. It is a ‘Black Swan’ event. This affects 10 percent of the total population, but 30% of the labor force. There is about 100 million to 110 million in the labor force. With the injured, disabled and the dead, it’s about 28.9 million. That’s about 30% of the labor force that has died, been disabled or is chronically sick. This is going to have huge implications on productivity going forward.”
On the U.S. dollar, Dowd says it’s not going down in the near term. Dowd contends, “We are predicting deflation, which will be good for the dollar. It’s pretty much bad for every other asset class.”
On the ongoing banking crisis, Dowd says, “The regional bank stocks are getting slaughtered. When you raise interest rates 500 basis points or 5% in a little over 12 months after a 14-year 0% interest rate regime, you are going to leave tremendous skid marks, and the skid marks are the regional banks, unfortunately, because they have a lot of commercial real estate. This is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.”
Dowd see’s a “deep recession” coming soon. He also says it is going to be at least as bad as the savings and loan crisis in the early 1990s, but he says all bets are off if the Fed loses control of the economy. That, too, is a good possibility.
Dowd says one really “disturbing” thing is how everyone in power is ignoring the CV19 bioweapon/vax unfolding disaster. Dowd is surprised there are “no investigations or hearings in Congress” and is also surprised no one is asking for his stunning CV19 vax data.
Dowd says, “They all want to hope it’s going to go away, but it’s not going to go away because the numbers are so big. . . . My book “Cause Unknown” was written for loved ones who think everything is hunky-dory. When you look at the numbers, you have to ask yourself why aren’t we talking about this? We have pandemic numbers now. It’s way more in the 2020 time frame.
We have a pandemic. It’s the pandemic of the vaccinated. . . . I think if we don’t do something soon, the country is gone. . . .No one is taking action.”
There is much more in the 39-min. interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the book called “Cause Unknown” The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022 for 5.3.23.
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
(https://usawatchdog.com/cv19-bioweapon-caused-a-pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-ed-dowd/)
After the Interview:
You can order the Dowd’s book called “Cause Unknown” The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022 by clicking here.
If you want to go to Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com, click here.
Dowd’s work on compiling data on deaths and disabilities caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax can be viewed by clicking here. It’s all free.
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