MAY 16//BANKER CROOKS USE MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF T.A.S. COMEX CONTRACTS TO BOMB GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD DOWN $28.05 TO $1989.55, SILVER IS DOWN 34 CENTS TO $23.76//PLATINUM IS DOWN ON $4.05 AS THERE IS A HUGE DEFICIT OF DEMAND/OVER IN THAT MARKET//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $32.15 TO $1501.05//THE ENTIRE USA IS CROOKED WHETHER IT IS MARKETS OR GOVERNMENT: TOTALLY CORRUPT//CHINA DOES A MASSIVE DUMP OF ECONOMIC DATA AND IT IS ALL BAD AS CHINA’S REOPENING FAILS//MARKET BRACES FOR A POTENTIAL TURKISH COLLAPSE IN THE LIRA AND THEIR ECONOMY//COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/MORE UPDATES ON RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/MORE UPDATES ON THE DEBT CEILING DEBACLE//USA: RETAIL SALES DISAPPOINT//HOME DEPOT CRASHES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT INCLUDING COMMENTARIES FROM THE DURHAM REPORT//

May 16, 2023 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

MAY 16/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $28.05 TO $1989.55

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.34   AT $23.76

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1989.10

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.75

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Bitcoin morning price:, $26,997  DOWN 400  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,034  DOWN 363 dollars

Platinum price closing  $1064.20 DOWN $4.05

Palladium price;     $1501.05 DOWN $32.15

GO GATA!

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,680.86 DOWN 33.80 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1593.61 DOWN 14.60 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1831.37 DOWN 22.05 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: MAY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,018.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/15/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 05/17/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2

TOTAL: 2 2

JPMorgan stopped 0/2 contracts

FOR MAY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT:  2 NOTICES FOR 200 OZ  or  0.00622 TONNES

total notices so far: 5870 contracts for 587,000 oz (18.298 tonnes)


FOR  MAY:

SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  2163 for 10,815,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05..

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.07 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS AT THE SLV// 

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/: : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 469.448 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN HUGE SIZED 1803 CONTRACTS  TO 141,131 AND FURTHER FROM THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.13 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS IN FULL FORCE DURING MID CYCLE IN THE DELIVERY MONTH. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY: A HUGE 790 CONTRACTS.  THE CROOKS LIQUIDATED THE SHORT END OF THE SPREAD TRADE TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF SILVER AND IT FAILED!!

WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.13). AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTROUS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF  1572 CONTRACTS (ALL OF THIS LOSS WITH HIGH PROBABILITY IS DUE TO TAS LIQUIDATION).  WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 4.250 MILLION OZ.)  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 


A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 231 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP    OF 20,000 OZ(QUEUE. JUMP RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 4.25 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 17.24 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY  V)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) PROBABLE HUGE NUMBER OF SHORT T.A.S. CONTRACT LIQUIDATION TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  + added 26  CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 9344 contracts:   OR 46.720 MILLION OZ . (778 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  46.720 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 46.72 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1803  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR  $0.13 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 231  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF  13.105 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP   OF 95,000 OZ (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +//  + 0.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK  TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 4.25 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 12.990 MILLION OZ + 4.25 MILLION = 17.24 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1572 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION. NO. OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE  790!!

 WE HAD 4  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  20,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 14,416  CONTRACTS  TO 536,021 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED A MONSTROUS 1004  CONTRACTS

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 14,416 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR SMALL  $2.85 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS  200  OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of   COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)/+ /A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1459 T.A.S. CONTRACTS//NO LIQUIDATION OF TAS TODAY////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL $2.85 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 16,153  OI CONTRACTS (50.244 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1737 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 536,021

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,153 CONTRACTS  WITH 14,416 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED: 1459 CONTRACTS) AND 1737 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,153 CONTRACTS OR 50.244 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1737 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (14,416) //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,153 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP  OF 200 OZ // NEW STANDING: 18.622 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6/ T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1459 CONTRACTS TO WHICH THEY UNLOADED ZERO TODAY.)

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  33,600 CONTRACTS OR 3,360,000 OZ OR 104.53 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2800 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  104.53 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  104.53/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY: 104.52 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALLER MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 1803  CONTRACTS OI TO  141,131 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022 

EFP ISSUANCE 231  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY  231  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  231  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1803 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 231 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1572 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 7.860 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.13 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.75 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 712.04 POINTS OR 0.04%      /The Nikkei closed UP 216.65 OR 0.73%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.49 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9637 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 6.9758 /Oil UP TO 71.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 14,416 CONTRACTS UP TO 536,021 DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.85 ON MONDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1737  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 1737 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1737 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 16,153  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1737 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 13,412 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.85. AS PER TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY MONTH.THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: A HUGE 1459.  HOWEVER THE SHORT SIDE WAS NOT LIQUIDATED TODAY. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    MAY  (18.622) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 18.622 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $2.85) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GIGANTIC  SIZED GAIN OF 16,153 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 50.244 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP OF 200 oz (0.00622 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 18.622 TONNES  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $2.85

WE HAD +added 1004     CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,153  CONTRACTS OR 1,615,300  OZ OR 50.244 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 238,085// fair

final gold volumes/yesterday   208,903//  FAIR

//MAY 16/ MAY  2023 CONTRACT

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32.15 OZ


BRINKS
1 KILOBAR











   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in ozNIL
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz10,165.388 oz
Delaware
No of oz served (contracts) today2  notice(s)
200 OZ
0.00622 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  117  contracts 
  11,700 oz
0.3639 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5870 notices
587,000  OZ
18.298 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: NIL oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of BRINKS  32.15 oz (1 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 32.15   oz  1 kilobars 

Adjustments; 0/

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 119  contracts having LOST 88 contracts.  We had 90 contracts filed

on MONDAY, so we gained 2  contracts or an additional 200 oz (0..00622 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.

June LOST 7679  contracts DOWN to 247,068 contracts. (STRANGE//JUNE IS NOT CONTRACTING FAST ENOUGH//WE MAY HAVE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH)

July added 134 contracts to stand at 1745 contracts.

AUGUST GAINED 21,357 contracts up to 233,208 contracts 

We had 2 contracts filed for today representing  200 oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,870 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAY (119  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  2 x 100 oz per contract equals 598,700 OZ  OR 18.622 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON-   active month of May. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (5,870 x 100 oz) x  119 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2)x 100 oz} which equals 598,700 oz standing OR 18.622 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 18.622 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,666,085.702  OZ   51.822 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,592,643/413  OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  12,401,304.774   (385,73  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,191,336.639  O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,735,219 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.91 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAY 16//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory

806,256.036 oz
BRINKS
LOOMIS

CNT























.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,179,843.835 oz
JPMorgan
LOOMIS
































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)4  CONTRACT(S)  
 (20,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)420 contracts 
(2,100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2163 Contracts
 (10,815,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i)Into LOOMIS:  581,047.735 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan:  598,796.100 oz

Total deposits: 1,179,843.835   oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 140.223  million oz/271.840 million =51.58% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals 3

i) Out of   CNT: 969.216 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 124,873.890 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 680,412.930 oz

Total withdrawal:  806,256.036    oz

adjustments:  1

Manfra, dealer to customer:  211,269.189 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 29.747 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.840 million oz

we have now seen the movement of the registered silver comex into the 29 million column:

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 439   CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 18 CONTRACTS FILED

ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS OUR BANKERS ARE IN DESPERATE SEARCH OF SILVER METAL. 

JUNE HAD A 39 CONTRACT LOSS TO 1042

JULY HAD A 2246 CONTRACT LOSS TO 116,842 CONTRACTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  63,142  good/raid

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 45,672  poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2163 x  5,000 oz = 10,815,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(439) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month:  2163 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (439) – number of notices served upon today (4 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 12.990 million oz  + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.250//NEW TOTAL 17.240

 MILLION OZ// 

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07 

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES

MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15  TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 934.07 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./

MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ

MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387  MILLION OZ.

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942  MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION  OZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

CLOSING INVENTORY 469.448 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

end

end

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Bill Murphy interviewed by Goldseek’s Waltzek

(GATA)

GoldSeek’s Waltzek and GATA’s Murphy await blastoff for monetary metals

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-05-15 20:52Section: Daily Dispatches

8:52p ET Monday, May 15, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek and GATA Chairman Bill Murphy today discuss the strength of gold and silver prices despite constant raids by what Murphy calls the gold cartel. But Murphy says he is tired of the frequent reports that silver supply is extremely tight, since such reports have been circulating for years without result.

Waltzek and Murphy also discuss the instability of the U.S. banking system.

The discussion is 11 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek here:

https://goldseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-nugget-bill-murphy-gold-cartel-market-raids-silver-triple-digits

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Asians are now worried about the fall in the dollar and thus they flock to gold

(GATA/SCMP)

‘Genuinely worried’ Asian investors flock to safe haven gold amid U.S. dollar woes

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-05-15 09:25Section: Daily Dispatches

By Biman Mukherji
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Monday, May 15, 2023

Canadian investor Brian Foster (a pseudonym) started buying gold a year ago, picking up a little more of the precious metal every time he visited Hong Kong — about once every three months — Singapore or Switzerland, until he’d accumulated some US$120,000 worth.

“This is mostly to mitigate the risk of disruption of access in any one place due to catastrophic events,” he told This Week in Asia, obliquely referring to potential conflicts amid rising geopolitical tensions, most notably between the United States and China.

He has also converted most of his cash savings that were in US dollars to British pounds, Swiss francs and Singapore dollars, but is most optimistic about precious metals, which now comprise 15 per cent of his portfolio.

Long considered an alternative currency and safe-haven asset, gold has soared in popularity over the past month as investors in Asia’s trading hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore have flocked to the yellow metal, which has an inverse relationship with the trouble-beset US dollar.

“Our gold turnover in April increased by 40 per cent since March and 110 per cent since January,” said Padraig Seif, founding partner of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Asia, adding that the buying momentum had carried over to this month.

Many of his clients were “genuinely worried” that keeping their money in low-yield deposit accounts would erode the long-term value of their savings, he said, as the recent banking turmoil in the US has shaken investor confidence.

Over the course of five days in March, three small- to mid-size US banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in stock prices. Swift regulatory action was taken, but it failed to douse mounting fears of a prolonged economic slump as high interest rates raise the spectre of mortgage defaults.

Nearly half of Americans are anxious about the safety of the money they have in bank accounts or other financial institutions, according to a Gallup poll in May.

Those fears have been compounded by worries of a credit crunch as a possible US debt default looms, with the White House and Congress unable to reach an agreement over increasing the government’s US$31.4-trillion borrowing limit.

Gold prices have hit successive record highs of more than US$2,000 an ounce since cracks first started to appear in the US banking system in March. Prices have remained above that level – last seen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – this month amid signs of a US economic slowdown.

But the record-high prices have not dented demand in Hong Kong, where premiums – extra money paid for speedier deliveries – on gold “kilobars” have more than doubled from two-and-a-half years ago, traders say.

Singapore is seeing similar robust demand.

“Yes, investment demand for gold bars and gold coins has risen significantly,” said Luke Chua, chief executive officer of leading Singapore-based bullion firm BullionStar.

In April alone, it sold 378kg of gold bars and coins, 37.9 per cent higher than the same month a year ago. Trade volumes last month were about 40 per cent of the whole of the first quarter’s demand this year, according to company data.

Chua attributed the rise in demand to the US banking crisis, the debt ceiling stand-off, the Federal Reserve’s rate increases and the weakness of the US dollar.

Opinions on how much further gold will rise are widely divergent, but few are willing to bet on a pullback any time soon.

The combination of factors shows that the US economy is not in good shape and “a flight to safe-haven gold is inevitable”, said Spencer Campbell, director of Singapore-based SE Asia Consulting, adding that “the writing seems to be on the wall for the US dollar”.

Some Singapore-based traders believe gold has the potential to reach US$2,450 per ounce in the next few months, he said.

Most experts agree that prices will rise, but many forecast only modest increases.

Gold could rise by another 6 per cent by the year-end, said Ross Norman, London-based CEO at Metals Daily, adding that the weakness of the US dollar alone was not propelling the precious metal, which has rallied 13 per cent since early March while the US dollar has fallen by 4 per cent.

Besides the banking crisis, sticky inflation, declining treasury yields and geopolitical issues have all been powering the metal’s growth in value. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3220305/genuinely-worried-asian-investors-flock-safe-haven-gold-amid-us-dollar-woes

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: PLATINUM

END

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED  DOWN AT 6.9637

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9758

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.75 PTS OR  0.60% 

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 7.12  PTS OR  0.04%

2. Nikkei closed UP 216.65 PTS OR 0.73%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP  TO  102.11 EURO RISES TO 1.0896 UP 23 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.392 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 135.81 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE YUAN:  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.2743***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.141*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.338…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.954

3j Gold at $2006.30 silver at: 23.78 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  86 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.00//

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 75  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 135.81  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .392% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8928 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9729 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.477 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.829 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.9769 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.71…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 3.791 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Drop After China Dismal Data Dump, Debt Ceiling Debate Enter Crunchtime

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 08:24 AM

US equity futures dropped on Tuesday ahead of today’s critical debt ceiling discussions in Washington and weighed expectations of more easing after China’s data showed the recovery there is rapidly losing momentum. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down -0.1% at 7:45am ET, but off the best and worst levels of the session. Treasuries are up ahead of the debt-ceiling talks with the Bloomberg dollar index slightly weaker, while oil is extending yesterday’s gains. Iron ore is up this morning, while gold is lower.

“Markets are still absorbing some of this morning’s earnings reports, but today’s China data was a little disappointing which is prompting some weakness in luxury retail and basic resources,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

In premarket trading, Home Depot dropped as much as 5.5% market after cutting its full-year guidance and reporting comp sales that missed the average analyst estimate. The company blamed softening consumer demand, lumber deflation and unfavorable weather, particularly in California, for the sales shortfall. Home-improvement retailer peer Lowe’s, which reports results May 23, fell in sympathy. Shares of RH fell 4% after Berkshire exited its position in the home furnishing company. On the other end, Capital One rose as much as 6.7% in premarket trading as Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F showed the conglomerate added the stock to its portfolio in the first quarter. Here are some other premarket movers:

  • Horizon Therapeutics plunges 18% in US premarket trading Tuesday on a report that federal regulators are preparing a lawsuit to block the company’s sale to biotech firm Amgen.
  • Nubank shares rise as much as 8.4% in US premarket trading, set to hit their highest level in over one year, after the Brazilian digital bank reported total revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Citi said the company’s surge in profitability was “impressive.”
  • Gilead Sciences shares rise 1.1% in premarket trading, after BMO Capital Markets upgrades the biopharmaceutical company to outperform from market perform, noting the “best-in-class” cell therapy franchise.
  • First Watch Restaurant Group declined 5.5% in postmarket after funds managed by Advent International offered 3.5 million shares via Jefferies.
  • Reservoir Media shares rose 2.6% in postmarket trading after Elliott Investment Management reported holding 401,546 shares valued at $2.62 million in the first quarter.
  • Rumble dropped 3% in postmarket trading after the video-platform company saw quarterly losses balloon as it expanded its roster of influencers and personalities.
  • Ducommun declined 11% in postmarket trading after offering 2m shares via Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, RBC Capital Markets, B. Riley Securities.
  • Beam Global shares soared 16% in postmarket trading after reporting revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

The rally in US stocks has stalled in May, as investors fret over sticky inflation and the impact on growth from higher-for-longer interest rates. Continuing negotiations over the debt ceiling are also putting a lid on risk appetite, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning again that the US is already paying a price for its failure to raise the federal debt limit. 

Two Federal Reserve officials this week signaled they favored pausing interest-rate increases, while a third policymaker said the central bank’s task in subduing inflation was not complete. “We do believe the Fed will pause for now, seeing how everything flows through the economy, but we still don’t believe the Fed will cut at the end of the year unless we have a severe recession or inflation back to 2%, which as you know is not our base-case scenario,” said Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities and multi assets at M&G Plc, in a Bloomberg TV interview. 

“Macro numbers are weakening but not falling off a cliff, so for now we still think yes there will be slowdown, but we are not seeing anything as harsh as some out there are expecting,” she said.

Sentiment among global fund managers in May deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, Bank of America’s latest monthly Fund Manager Survey showed. At the same time, almost two thirds of investors see a soft landing as the most likely scenario for global economic growth and expect only a small contraction in earnings. Most surveyed fund managers expect the US debt ceiling to be raised by the so-called X-date. 

“The debt ceiling should be really bad if we don’t get a solution, but also not supportive if we get a solution — a short-term relief due to over-hedging, but medium term a liquidity drag,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “When the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury Department begins refilling its Treasury General Account with more bond issuance in the second half, then that would likely be very bad for liquidity, assuming the Fed is still doing QT at that point. That would be a negative double-whammy for liquidity.”

UBS Global Wealth Management strategists led by Mark Haefele said in a note that they see risk-reward for US equities as “unattractive” amid slowing economic growth and weakening consumption. In a soft landing scenario, the S&P 500 could rise to 4,400 by year-end, but if the economy slips into a recession, the market could fall to 3,300. 

“We are all looking to Congress and the White House to see how the US debt ceiling discussions are moving ahead,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “Now that we have sufficient clarity on central bank policy and are close to the rate hike cycle peak, investors are looking for clarity on the political front before the coming earnings season.”

At the same time, traders have hedged worst-case scenarios by parking in cash, Treasuries and tech stocks, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. If the latest debt-ceiling episode plays out like 2011, Treasuries could be a big beneficiary in the run-up to the June 1 deadline.

Looking at today’s main macro event, US retail sales may have bounced back in April, boosted by autos (see our preview here). Consensus sees a 0.8% gain after March’s revised 0.6% slump. But Bloomberg Economics said a shift in consumer demand from goods to services signals a rocky road ahead for retailers.

In Europe, stocks were off their worst levels but still nursing minor declines as the ongoing US debt-ceiling negotiations keep broader risk sentiment in check. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.1% with losses in autos and banks offsetting gains in utilities and tech. Technology shares were the biggest gainers. Telecom stocks dragged down the index, punctuated by a loss of as much as 5.4% in Telecom Italia SpA shares. Here are Europe’s biggest movers:

  • Faurecia shares gain as much as 3.3% in Paris after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating, noting the automotive parts supplier is well positioned to benefit from a cyclical recovery
  • Boohoo rises as much as 17%, the most since Nov. 1, after the online fast-fashion retailer reported FY results, with Jefferies analysts noting the strong cash performance
  • Tech stocks rise, posting the biggest gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as bond yields drop, with semiconductor stocks such as ASM International and Infineon leading the sector’s advance
  • Land Securities gains as much as 2.7%, with analysts saying the UK landlord’s results show a good operational performance and an encouraging outlook for rental growth
  • Smiths Group advances as much as 2.5% as Bank of America double upgrades the industrial firm to buy from underperform, noting that hidden value in the stock can now be realized
  • InPost climbs as much as 4.2%, after the Polish parcel locker operator beat 1Q earnings estimates and guided for double-digit volume growth across all markets in 2Q
  • Philips gains as much as 6%, the most since April 24, after the Dutch medical technology group said new tests on its recalled breathing machines showed the majority are unlikely to cause harm
  • Embracer falls as much as 16% after the Swedish game developer cut its full-year profit view, with preliminary fourth-quarter figures missing estimates due to deal delays
  • Vodafone declines as much as 4.8%, their biggest intraday drop since November, after the telecom operator’s fiscal 2024 guidance for profits and free-cash flow missed expectations

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as Japan’s Topix benchmark climbed to the highest in more than three decades, even as worse-than-estimated economic data from China dragged on its mainland-traded equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.6%, with technology names TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Tencent among the top contributors. Taiwan and Philippine markets were among the best performers. Chinese stocks fell in Shanghai and Shenzhen after official data showed industrial output, retail sales and fixed investment all missed estimates in April. Analysts forecast more policy support later this year. 

Japan’s benchmark Topix has climbed 12% so far this year, beating the MSCI Asia Index’s 4.3% gain and a 7.7% advance in the S&P 500. The Topix has climbed to the highest since 1990. A renewed push by Japan’s corporates to increase buybacks and focus on returns is helping boost sentiment, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average leading gains among Asia’s major benchmarks in 2023. A weakening yen and solid earnings are among factors that have boosted Japanese stocks, with Goldman Sachs among strategists seeing more gains to come. “The last 1-2 weeks were earnings peak season, and good results supported share prices,” said Rie Nishihara, chief Japan equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “The announcement of share buybacks and dividend hikes by companies will end after May 15, so we think Nikkei will settle down before reaching 30,000 yen.”

“We believe Japanese stocks still have further to go,” Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities and multi assets at M&G Plc, said on Bloomberg Television. “Companies in Japan were improving their balance sheets and were giving back to shareholders in terms of buybacks and dividends.”

Indian stock markets were among the worst performers in Asia on Tuesday as shares of financial services and consumer companies extended declines into the end of the session. The selloff in local markets stood in contrast to gains from most Asian markets despite signs China’s economic recovery is losing momentum. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.4% higher. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.7% to 61,932.47 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.6% to 18,286.50. A sub-gauge of financial stocks fell 0.5% while BSE Consumer Discretionary index slid 0.4%. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 0.6%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 14 rose, while 16 fell.

Australian stocks feel: the S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.4% to close at 7,234.70 in broad declines, with consumer staples and tech sectors falling most. Australia’s consumer confidence tumbled in May after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly raised interest rates and the government handed down a budget that households found “mildly disappointing.” Read: Australia’s Consumer Confidence Slumps on Rate Hike and Budget In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 11,945.87.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. The Swiss franc is the best performer among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. The pound fell but losses were short-lived with cable since reclaiming the $1.25 handle and now trading higher on the day.

In rates, treasuries advanced across the curve with gains led by belly as 5s30s spread pushes to fresh session wides. Treasury yields richer by nearly 5bp across belly of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by 2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.465% with gilts outperforming by additional 2.7bp in the sector. IG issuance slate includes Cades 5Y and JICA 5Y; 12 issuers priced almost $15b Monday; also, Pfizer mandated banks and announced investor outreach for what’s anticipated to be the financing component for its $43b Seagen acquisition. Bond sale could be in the $25b-$30b range as soon as Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Gilts outperformed following an unexpected drop in UK payrolls data that prompted traders to pare bets for further BOE interest-rate hikes. Gilts are leading US and German counterparts higher after disappointing jobs data. UK two-year yields are down 8bps at 3.75% amid a slight dovish shift in market pricing for the Bank of England. In US session, focal points include retail sales data, several Fed speakers and potential announcement of a Pfizer jumbo bond offering.  

In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.5% to trade near $70.70. Spot gold falls 0.3% to around $2,010. Bitcoin drops 0.9%. 

EU Council Finance ministers unanimously approved the Markets in Crypto Assets regulation (MiCA) and anti-money laundering rules “that could make it one of the first major jurisdictions to regulate the sector”, according to CoinDesk; as expected.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB housing market index for May. Elsewhere, we’ll get the German ZEW survey for May, Canadian CPI for April and UK unemployment for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Makhlouf, along with the Fed’s Mester, Barr, Williams, Goolsbee, Logan and Bostic. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Home Depot.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,148.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 466.61
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 162.45
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 515.39
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 29,842.99
  • Topix up 0.6% to 2,127.18
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 19,978.25
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,290.99
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 62,189.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,234.69
  • Kospi little changed at 2,480.24
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.28%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0894
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $75.48/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,010.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.15% to 102.28

Top Overnight News

  • China’s April economic data disappoints, with industrial production rising 5.6% (up from +3.9% in March, but far below the consensus +10.9% forecast) while retail sales advance 18.4% (up from +10.6% in March, but below the Street’s +21.9% estimate), spurring calls for more policy support from the gov’t. BBG
  • Unemployment among China’s youth rose above 20 per cent for the first time in April, and the situation could continue to worsen, analysts said, presenting a growing economic and social risk for policymakers. The jobless rate for the 16-24 age group hit a record high of 20.4 per cent in April, up from 19.6 per cent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed on Tuesday. SCMP
  • Oil demand growth estimate for this year raised by 200K BPD by the IEA due to increased China consumption. IEA
  • Ford will dial back its China investments amid questions about whether foreign firms can compete against domestic EV companies. FT
  • Russia hasn’t implemented its pledged crude-output cuts, with exports hitting a postwar high as Moscow seeks to boost energy revenue to fund military spending, according to the IEA. The Kremlin promised to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day in March and maintain the curbs for the rest of the year in retaliation for Western sanctions.  BBG
  • Time is tight as Joe Biden meets with Kevin McCarthy at 3 p.m. to discuss the debt ceiling, a day before the president heads off on a foreign trip. Adding tension, progressives in the chamber warned they’ll oppose any agreement adding more work requirements for food assistance to the poor. Janet Yellen reiterated time is running out and said “the impasse has already increased the debt burden to American taxpayers.” BBG
  • Fed Vice Chair Barr repeats what other government officials (at the White House, Treasury and Fed) have said about the banking system – it’s “strong and resilient”, while “depositors should be confident that all deposits in our banking system are safe”. Fed
  • The mood among global fund managers soured further in May, with investors flocking to cash amid concerns that a recession and credit crunch are looming, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. The sentiment among fund managers deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, BofA’s poll showed. BBG
  • Capitol Forum, an M&A journal, reported last night that the FTC will sue to block Amgen’s (AMGN) ~$30 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP). HZNP shares are trading -17% pre mkt. HZNP is the top owned situation in all of US merger arb right now.  This news likely will cause de-risking across the broader merger arb landscape today.  Capitol Forum / GS GBM

 A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed and only partially sustained the momentum from Wall St where stocks were led higher amid a short squeeze in US regional banks albeit with the upside capped by a disappointing NY Fed Manufacturing survey and debt ceiling concerns, while markets digested weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was lower as weakness in the tech and consumer sectors overshadowed the resilience in the commodity-related industries and with risk appetite also dampened by a deterioration in consumer confidence. Nikkei 225 strengthened as earnings results continued to take centre stage in Tokyo including Japan’s megabanks and after the TOPIX climbed to a fresh 33-year high. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied with Hong Kong underpinned by strength in tech after it was reported that ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry boosted his bullish bets on e-commerce giants JD.com and Alibaba, while the mainland was choppy after disappointing activity data from China in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Urban Investment all missed analysts’ forecasts.

Top Asian News

  • China NBS said the national economy sustained recovery momentum in April and that low price levels are temporary and will likely continue for some time, while it noted that low core CPI is due to service demand still being in recovery but added that consumer prices could gradually rebound in H2 as the economy recovers.
  • US senior administration official said the US expects a general agreement by the G7 on principles that define relationships with China and US expects leaders will make it clear they are unified behind a common approach grounded with common values on China. Furthermore, the official said there is a consensus among G7 countries on the need to ensure the security of technology and each G7 member will manage their own relationship with China but all are aligned around principles that guide relationships, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s PM is to lead a delegation to a business forum in China, according to the FT.
  • RBA May meeting minutes stated that the board considered pausing or hiking 25bps at the meeting and further increases in interest rates may still be required but would depend on how the economy and inflation evolve. RBA also stated that the central forecast is that inflation is not expected to reach the top of the target band until mid-2025 and it noted that risks include persistent services inflation and higher rent growth than anticipated.

European bourses are little changed but with a slight positive bias, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as macro drivers are limited and a downbeat/mixed ZEW only saw a modest trimming of initial performance. Sectors, are mixed with Tech and Utilities leading while Consumer Products/Services and Autos/Parts are the relative laggards. Stateside, futures were essentially unchanged ahead of numerous Fed speakers with broader attention on upcoming debt ceiling talks between President Biden & McCarthy with the ES just below 4150. However, the Q1 report from Home Depot (-4.0% pre-market) has resulted in some modest pressure, with US futures dipping into negative territory after the bellwether reports and misses on comp sales.

Top European News

  • German VCI Chemical Association: confirms 2023 guidance at 5% production decline (8% ex-pharma.).
  • Ukraine Raids Top Judge’s Home in Supreme Court Graft Probe
  • UK Labor Market Softens Even as Wages Continue to March Higher
  • Russia Hasn’t Made Its Pledged Crude-Output Cuts, the IEA Says

FX

  • Dollar extends retreat ahead of the next debt ceiling meeting, as DXY fades from 102.570 to 102.190 and through the 50 DMA.
  • G10 rivals mostly firmer in response, with Franc and Yen also boosted by softer Treasury yields to trade above 0.8950 and 136.00 respectively.
  • Aussie lags as Westpac consumer sentiment declines and Yuan weakens in wake of below forecast Chinese activity data, AUD/USD capped by decent option expiries between 0.6700-10, USD/CNY and USD/CNH back over 200 DMAs.
  • Euro probes 1.0900 and the Pound eyes 1.2550 after overcoming weak UK labour metrics.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9506 vs exp. 6.9500 (prev. 6.9654)

Fixed Income

  • Debt fades, but remains firmly underpinned ahead of busy pm agenda including primary US data and the latest raft of Fed speakers.
  • Bunds, Gilts and T-note all towards peaks of 136.38-135.81, 101.15-100.85 and 115-18+/06+ ranges.
  • 40-year UK syndication entices investors and will raise almost 10% of the GBP 54bln book size.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer but have since eased into negative territory though only modestly so as broader risk sentiment deteriorates incrementally from initial best levels and as Chinese activity data remains a headwind.
  • WTI and Brent are circa. USD 0.40/bbl lower on the session and currently pivoting the USD 70.50/bbl and USD 74.50/bbl marks respectively.
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: oil demand is set to increase by 2.2mln BPD in 2023 to a record of 102mln BPD (vs. April view of 101.9mln BPD). Click here for more detail.
  • China to cut diesel price by CNY 365/ton, according to NDRC.
  • Spot gold is within familiar parameters though was subject to a negative move in the early-European morning as the USD saw some fleeting upside while base metals are experiencing broader weakness after the downbeat Chinese activity figures.
  • Russia’s Kremlin says many questions still remain open regarding the Russian part of the grain deal; Russia has to take a decision on whether to renew the deal or not.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian presidential office head said air defence systems were repelling attacks early on Tuesday and Twitter sources noted explosions in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. Furthermore, Kyiv officials later said that the Russian attack was complex and exceptional in its density, but noted the vast majority of targets were shot down.
  • Five Russian border guards were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on an observation post in the Kursk border region, according to Al Arabiya.
  • US senior administration official said US President Biden’s Asia trip will show the US can both support Ukraine and maintain an unprecedented level of Indo-Pacific engagement, while Biden’s talks with Japan and South Korea on the G7 sidelines are expected to cover economic security, expansion of military exercises and North Korea, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: April Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.8%, prior -1.0%, revised -0.6%
  • 08:30: April Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.8%, revised -0.4%
  • 08:30: April Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
  • 08:30: April Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior -0.3%
  • 09:15: April Industrial Production MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.4%
  • 09:15: April Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.1%, prior -0.5%
  • 09:15: April Capacity Utilization, est. 79.7%, prior 79.8%
  • 10:00: March Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
  • 10:00: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 45, prior 45

Central Bank Speakers

  • 08:15: Fed’s Mester Discusses the economic and Policy Outlook
  • 10:00: Fed’s Barr Testifies Before House Financial Services Committee
  • 12:15: Fed’s Williams Discusses Economic Outlook and Monetary…
  • 14:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Bloomberg TV
  • 15:15: Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel Discussion at Atlanta Fed conferen
  • 19:00: Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee Discuss the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Since the aftermath of the SVB failure in March we’ve been in an interesting and quite tight lower yielding range for bonds. When nothing much happens newsflow wise, yields want to edge up towards the top of the range and then when something negative happens (e.g. the FRB resolution and stress at other regionals) yields fall to the downside. Meanwhile equities are in a remarkably steady range at the moment, with the S&P 500 trading in just a 1.5% range over the last 6 sessions and about a 3.5% range over the last month (which includes the FRB stress and resolution).

That pattern has held over the last 24 hours with bond yields edging higher but equities still quiet. Bonds sold off (10yr US yields +3.9bps) yesterday thanks to hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials alongside continued concerns about the US debt ceiling. Regional banks were higher too which helped. With regards to the debt ceiling, after a holding pattern on this story over recent days, we should finally get some information today on how the negotiations are evolving, since it’s expected that President Biden will meet with Republican House Speaker McCarthy again. Publicly at least, the mood music has sounded more positive from the Democrats than the Republicans. For instance, President Biden said over the weekend that “I remain optimistic” and that “I really think there’s a desire on their part as well as ours to reach an agreement”. However, yesterday saw Republican Speaker McCarthy say that the two sides were “far apart” in the talks and that the Democrats were “not talking anything serious”. There continues to be posturing in the media from both parties as one GOP member who helped write the House Bill said there were three “red lines” for Republicans; no clean debt increase, no tax increase, and the bill must reduce the deficit. After the US close, Treasury Secretary Yellen in a letter to Congressional leaders reinforced that “we still estimate that Treasury will likely no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1”. Our rates strategists and economists have moved their base case up to early-June as well, see their note here

We’ll have to see how today pans out, but it’s clear that investors are still nervous about the issue, since the yield on 1-month T-bills rose a further +11.2bps yesterday, taking them up to a new cycle high of 5.531%. That’s a big kink at the front of the yield curve centred around the 1-month mark, which is when fears of a potential default are at their highest. Given an early-June x-date to avoid default, the key players might only have just over a couple of weeks to reach some sort of deal. Remember as well that as it stands, President Biden is going to set off tomorrow for several meetings over the week ahead, including the G7 leaders’ summit in Japan on May 19-21 and the Quad summit in Australia on May 24. So if the deadline does arrive on the early side of estimates, then there really isn’t that long left when all the key people will be in Washington.

Whilst Treasuries were heavily selling off at the very front end, they didn’t exactly perform well at longer maturities either, with yields on 10yr debt up +3.9bps on the day to 3.502%. They are a couple of basis points lower in Asia though. Yesterday’s moves came amidst several Fed speakers who pushed back on the idea that the Fed were about to reverse rates anytime soon. For instance, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that his baseline was that “we won’t really be thinking about cutting until well into 2024”, which is at odds with market pricing that’s expecting 94bps of cuts by the time of the January 2024 meeting. Later on, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that “We at the Federal Reserve probably have more work to do on our end to try to bring inflation back down”. That saw investors price out some of the rate cuts they’d been expecting this year, with the rate priced in by the December meeting up by +2.8bps to 4.410%. In fact, fed futures yesterday pointed to a 20% of a hike during the June meeting, which is the highest it has been in 2 weeks. One dovish exception yesterday came from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who mentioned that there was “still a lot of the impact of the 500 basis points we did in the last year that’s still to come”, so explicitly warning of policy lags.

This backdrop saw equities move slightly higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.30%) posting a moderate advance. This was largely on the back of better cyclicals with semiconductors (+2.4%), banks (+1.9%), and materials (+0.9%) leading the way at the expense of defensives like utilities (-1.2%) and telecoms (-1.0%). The KBW Banks Index (+2.56%) saw decent gains following 4 weekly declines in a row. There was a +11.98% rise for Western Alliance Bancorp. Earlier European equities also ended the day in positive territory, with the STOXX 600 up +0.25%.

In other positive news, yesterday saw the relentless decline in European natural gas prices continue, with a further -1.38% decline to €32.31/MWh. That’s their lowest closing level since July 2021, and leaves them down by more than 90% since their peak last August. The picture for the winter ahead is looking increasingly optimistic, and storage levels are also above their seasonal averages for this time of year. Despite the better outlook on the inflation side though, European sovereign bonds traded in line with their US counterparts, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+2.6bps) and BTPs (+0.5bps) all rising on the day.

On the other hand Brent crude prices rose +1.43% to $75.23/bbl and WTI gained +1.53% to $71.11/bbl as news came out that the US would be filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with 3 million barrels of oil for delivery in August with the award announced next month. This comes after 200 million barrels were released last year.

Asian equity markets are mostly up this morning but gains are being trimmed after disappointing data from China (more below). As I type, the Nikkei (+0.90%) is leading gains in the region with the Hang Seng (+0.43%) and the KOSPI (+0.22%) also trading up. Elsewhere, stocks in mainland China are mixed with the CSI (-0.08%) just below flat while the Shanghai Composite is oscillating between gains and losses. S&P 500 futures are lower (-0.19%).

Coming back to China, industrial production for April rose by +5.6% y/y, falling much short of market expectations of a +10.9% increase and compared to a +3.9% rise in March after a muted start to the year. Additionally, retail sales advanced +18.4% y/y in April (v/s +21.9% expected), compared to a gain of +10.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, fixed asset investments also fell short of expectations, rising by +4.7% y/y, against expectations of +5.5% and as against a +5.1% reading in March. This provides further evidence of the nation’s uneven recovery.

Elsewhere, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated that the central bank still sees that further rate hikes “may be required”, depending upon how the nation’s economy and inflation evolve. Our economist thinks that overall the minutes make a June hike slightly less likely but that the comments on active QT are an interesting development. DB still favours one last hike in August. See more from our economist here.

Finally yesterday, the European Commission upgraded their forecasts for the Euro Area economy over this year and next. They now project 2023 growth at +1.1% (vs. +0.9% in Feb), and 2024 growth at +1.6% (vs. +1.5% in Feb). However, they did raise their inflation forecasts too, now seeing 2023 at +5.8% (vs. +5.6% in Feb) and 2024 at +2.8% (vs. +2.5% in Feb). Meanwhile on the data side, the US Empire State manufacturing survey for May fell by more than expected to -31.8 (vs. -3.9 expected). And Euro Area industrial production for March contracted by -4.8% (vs. -2.8% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB housing market index for May. Elsewhere, we’ll get the German ZEW survey for May, Canadian CPI for April and UK unemployment for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Makhlouf, along with the Fed’s Mester, Barr, Williams, Goolsbee, Logan and Bostic. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Home Depot.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

Stocks slip post-HD earnings, Fed speak & Biden/McCarthy ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 06:19 AM

  • European bourses are relatively contained, but off best after downbeat/mixed ZEW
  • US futures spent the morning rangebound though have similarly dipped post-HD earnings, -4% pre-market
  • President Biden is to meet McCarthy at 15:00ET/20:00BST, Yellen to speak beforehand
  • DXY continues to retreat despite initial fleeting upside with G10s firmer, GBP picks up after weak labour data
  • AUD, Yuan and base metals are dented by soft Chinese activity data
  • Core benchmarks are underpinned ahead of a raft of Fed speak; chunky demand for UK 40yr syndication
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Biden meeting McCarthy, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Mester, Bostic, Barr, Goolsbee & Logan.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are little changed but with a slight positive bias, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as macro drivers are limited and a downbeat/mixed ZEW only saw a modest trimming of initial performance.
  • Sectors, are mixed with Tech and Utilities leading while Consumer Products/Services and Autos/Parts are the relative laggards.
  • Stateside, futures were essentially unchanged ahead of numerous Fed speakers with broader attention on upcoming debt ceiling talks between President Biden & McCarthy with the ES just below 4150.
  • However, the Q1 report from Home Depot (-4.0% pre-market) has resulted in some modest pressure, with US futures dipping into negative territory after the bellwether reports and misses on comp sales.
  • Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 3.82 (exp. 3.80), revenue 37.25bln (exp. 38.28bln); Comp sales -4.5% (exp. 1.7%), US comp sales -4.6% (exp. 1.9%)
  • Baidu Inc (BIDU) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 2.34 (exp. 1.80), Revenue 4.54 (exp. 4.33bln); Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q1 2023 (USD): Diluted EPS 0.11 (exp. 0.12), Revenue 1.02bln (exp. 0.99bln).
  • Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates, including:
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Dollar extends retreat ahead of the next debt ceiling meeting, as DXY fades from 102.570 to 102.190 and through the 50 DMA.
  • G10 rivals mostly firmer in response, with Franc and Yen also boosted by softer Treasury yields to trade above 0.8950 and 136.00 respectively.
  • Aussie lags as Westpac consumer sentiment declines and Yuan weakens in wake of below forecast Chinese activity data, AUD/USD capped by decent option expiries between 0.6700-10, USD/CNY and USD/CNH back over 200 DMAs.
  • Euro probes 1.0900 and the Pound eyes 1.2550 after overcoming weak UK labour metrics.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9506 vs exp. 6.9500 (prev. 6.9654)
  • Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt fades, but remains firmly underpinned ahead of busy pm agenda including primary US data and the latest raft of Fed speakers.
  • Bunds, Gilts and T-note all towards peaks of 136.38-135.81, 101.15-100.85 and 115-18+/06+ ranges.
  • 40-year UK syndication entices investors and will raise almost 10% of the GBP 54bln book size.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer but have since eased into negative territory though only modestly so as broader risk sentiment deteriorates incrementally from initial best levels and as Chinese activity data remains a headwind.
  • WTI and Brent are circa. USD 0.40/bbl lower on the session and currently pivoting the USD 70.50/bbl and USD 74.50/bbl marks respectively.
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: oil demand is set to increase by 2.2mln BPD in 2023 to a record of 102mln BPD (vs. April view of 101.9mln BPD). Click here for more detail.
  • China to cut diesel price by CNY 365/ton, according to NDRC.
  • Spot gold is within familiar parameters though was subject to a negative move in the early-European morning as the USD saw some fleeting upside while base metals are experiencing broader weakness after the downbeat Chinese activity figures.
  • Russia’s Kremlin says many questions still remain open regarding the Russian part of the grain deal; Russia has to take a decision on whether to renew the deal or not.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • German VCI Chemical Association: confirms 2023 guidance at 5% production decline (8% ex-pharma.).

DATA RECAP

  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%); Employment Change (Mar) 182k vs. Exp. 160k (Prev. 169k)
  • UK Average Week Earnings 3M YY (Mar) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.9%, Rev. 5.8%); Ex-Bonus (Mar) 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.6%)
  • UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Apr) -135k (Prev. 31k, Rev. 42k); ONS says there were 556,000 working days lost because of labour disputes in March 2023, up from 332,000 in February 2023
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) -10.7 vs. Exp. -5.3 (Prev. 4.1); Current Conditions (May) -34.8 vs. Exp. -37.0 (Prev. -32.5)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed Vice-Chair of Supervision Barr (voter) said the bank stress shows the need for vigilance but noted that the US banking system remains sound and resilient, and depositors should be confident all deposits in the banking system are safe, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden has scheduled a debt limit meeting with US House Speaker McCarthy for Tuesday and will be meeting with congressional leaders on Tuesday, while a senior official said President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy’s debt ceiling meeting is planned for 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
  • White House and Congressional staff have been meeting for several days on the debt ceiling, sources suggest they have been making incremental progress, via WSJ.
  • Big Short investor Michael Burry was betting on regional banks during the first quarter and acquired shares of several distressed banks including First Republic before it was bought by JPMorgan (JPM).
  • BofA May Global Fund Manager Survey says investors are bearish, Fed done, risk assets are resilient so long as the landing is soft. Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Ukrainian presidential office head said air defence systems were repelling attacks early on Tuesday and Twitter sources noted explosions in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. Furthermore, Kyiv officials later said that the Russian attack was complex and exceptional in its density, but noted the vast majority of targets were shot down.
  • Five Russian border guards were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on an observation post in the Kursk border region, according to Al Arabiya.
  • US senior administration official said US President Biden’s Asia trip will show the US can both support Ukraine and maintain an unprecedented level of Indo-Pacific engagement, while Biden’s talks with Japan and South Korea on the G7 sidelines are expected to cover economic security, expansion of military exercises and North Korea, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • EU Council Finance ministers unanimously approved the Markets in Crypto Assets regulation (MiCA) and anti-money laundering rules “that could make it one of the first major jurisdictions to regulate the sector”, according to CoinDesk; as expected.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded mixed and only partially sustained the momentum from Wall St where stocks were led higher amid a short squeeze in US regional banks albeit with the upside capped by a disappointing NY Fed Manufacturing survey and debt ceiling concerns, while markets digested weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data.
  • ASX 200 was lower as weakness in the tech and consumer sectors overshadowed the resilience in the commodity-related industries and with risk appetite also dampened by a deterioration in consumer confidence.
  • Nikkei 225 strengthened as earnings results continued to take centre stage in Tokyo including Japan’s megabanks and after the TOPIX climbed to a fresh 33-year high.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied with Hong Kong underpinned by strength in tech after it was reported that ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry boosted his bullish bets on e-commerce giants JD.com and Alibaba, while the mainland was choppy after disappointing activity data from China in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Urban Investment all missed analysts’ forecasts.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China NBS said the national economy sustained recovery momentum in April and that low price levels are temporary and will likely continue for some time, while it noted that low core CPI is due to service demand still being in recovery but added that consumer prices could gradually rebound in H2 as the economy recovers.
  • US senior administration official said the US expects a general agreement by the G7 on principles that define relationships with China and US expects leaders will make it clear they are unified behind a common approach grounded with common values on China. Furthermore, the official said there is a consensus among G7 countries on the need to ensure the security of technology and each G7 member will manage their own relationship with China but all are aligned around principles that guide relationships, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s PM is to lead a delegation to a business forum in China, according to the FT.
  • RBA May meeting minutes stated that the board considered pausing or hiking 25bps at the meeting and further increases in interest rates may still be required but would depend on how the economy and inflation evolve. RBA also stated that the central forecast is that inflation is not expected to reach the top of the target band until mid-2025 and it noted that risks include persistent services inflation and higher rent growth than anticipated.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Industrial Production YY (Apr) 5.6% vs. Exp. 10.9% (Prev. 3.9%); Retail Sales YY (Apr) 18.4% vs. Exp. 21.0% (Prev. 10.6%)
  • Chinese Urban Investment YTD YY (Apr) 4.7% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.1%)
  • Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May) 79.0 (Prev. 85.8); Consumer Sentiment MM (May) -7.9% (Prev. 9.4%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.75 PTS OR 0.60%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 712.04 POINTS OR 0.04%      /The Nikkei closed UP 216.65 OR 0.73%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.49 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9637 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 6.9758 /Oil UP TO 71.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA//

China’s reopening has been a disaster with the latest 6 data points.

(zerohedge)

China Data Dump Total Disaster; Youth Unemployment Hits Record High

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 10:15 PM

In the run-up to tonight’s extravaganza of centrally-managed “economic” data, China’s macro data has been serially disappointing for six weeks as the re-opening narrative fails to deliver…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the almost infallible credit impulse on the rise again, recent aggregate financing data has been dramatically weaker than expected…

Source: Bloomberg

And before we break down the data, one huge caveat, the official headline figures that China’s National Bureau of Statistics released tonight compares with last year – when much of country was in total lockdown due to COVID, bringing the economy to a standstill everywhere.

Therefore, what’s more telling is that the pace of overall growth on a month-on-month basis – that’s the key gauge of the recovery’s health right now.

EVERYTHING MISSED!

  • *CHINA JAN.-APRIL FIXED INVESTMENT FALLS 0.64% M/M;RISES 4.7% Y/Y; EST. 5.7%
  • *CHINA JAN.-APRIL PROPERTY DEV. INVESTMENT FELL 6.2% Y/Y, EST. -5.7%
  • *CHINA APRIL RETAIL SALES ROSE ONLY 18.4% Y/Y; EST. 21.9%
  • *CHINA JAN.-APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT FALLS 0.47% M/M; RISES 3.6% Y/Y; EST. 4.9%

There was a modest silver lining with the Surveyed Jobless rate dropped to 5.2% (exp 5.3%), BUT, Youth unemployment soared to a record high 20.4%…

Source: Bloomberg

The numbers are significantly worse than expected (and in most cases worse than the worst economist forecasts).

As Bloomberg reports, Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd noted it “is a weak print.”

“The headline data fail to impress despite base effect from Shanghai lockdown last year. Youth jobless rate passed 20%. The reopening dividend is losing steam.”

China’s NBS said “China faces insufficient domestic demand.”

Finally, after all that, bear in mind that China has not raised its rates (like the rest of the world) in over nine months and continues to flood the system with cash every month (also unlike almost every other nation on earth).

Simply put, China has a seemingly bottomless liquidity hole somewhere in the middle and no matter how much credit they inject, it all gets soaked up offering no stimulation to the economy.

Goldman’s economists expect more easing to come…

“In light of the sharp deceleration of April credit growth, this statement suggests PBOC might want to manage the pace of credit growth deceleration…which potentially opens the door to another RRR cut, in our view. We expect a 25bp broad RRR cut in June when liquidity demand picks up at quarter-end to boost market sentiment and facilitate overall credit growth.”

And tonight’s data disaster may have sealed that.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

FINLAND

The new Finnish nuclear plant will see electricity prices plunge by 75%

(zerohedge0

Newly-Launched Finnish Nuclear Plant Sees Electricity Prices Plunge By 75%

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The commencement of regular output from a much-delayed Finnish nuclear reactor in April saw electricity prices in the country decrease by more than 75 percent.

The Olkiluoto 3 (OL3) nuclear plant completed the transition from testing to regular output last month to become Finland’s first new nuclear plant in more than four decades. It is expected to produce up to 15 percent of the country’s power demand.

And while the plant’s production is still in its early days, its launch has had a considerable effect on Finland’s energy prices, lowering the electricity spot price in the country from €245.98 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in December to €60.55 per MWh in April, a reduction of more than 75 percent, according to physical electricity exchange, Nord Pool.

Energy prices had risen sharply in the Scandinavian country after the Finnish government banned electricity imports from neighboring Russia last year due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The utilization of nuclear power will be welcomed by Finnish consumers, particularly given the fact that Finland has the highest per-capita electricity consumption in the European Union.

“We have had more stability in the system because of OL3. It’s a huge nuclear plant, one of the biggest in the world, connected to a small system,” said Jukka Ruusunen, chief executive of Finland’s national grid operator Fingrid. “It has its own risks, which we are happy to follow up on,” he added.

Speaking to The National, Ruusunen explained that wind power is expected to be the largest source of energy production in Finland by 2027, with nuclear currently being a useful and reliable substitute.

He said that wind power is capable of attracting greater investment, with nuclear energy seemingly being blacklisted by a number of environmental investors.

“Nuclear, it seems, is not very attractive for the investors. This is what they say. But, it’s an option and I’m sure that our politicians would be in favor of these decisions,” he told the news site.

There are also business concerns:

“Who dares to put billions of euros into nuclear?” he asked.

Nuclear, however, continues to be an increasingly popular source of energy production in many EU nations with France, Sweden, Poland and Hungary all seeking to expand their nuclear energy output.

Last month, Poland secured $4 billion in U.S. funding to help build 20 small modular reactors across the country by 2029, while Hungary is focused on expanding its Paks nuclear power plant.

The Finnish example is a testament to how nuclear can play a part in solving the current energy crisis, with consumers still paying sky-high fees for energy in many European countries.

Germany, however, went the opposite way and controversially closed down its three remaining nuclear power plants last month. High inflation, high energy costs, and a sharp decline in industrial output have led to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting a recession is in the cards for Europe’s powerhouse.

While German government officials say that energy prices are stabilizing, many will argue this is primarily because the federal government has spent around €26 billion in taxpayers’ cash on bailing out energy firms Sefe and Uniper, both of which incurred record losses by purchasing natural gas at hugely inflated prices to replace the banned supply from Russia.

As other European countries turn to alternative sources of energy production such as nuclear, some have ignored the benefits and chosen to plunge themselves into debt because of a notion that nuclear isn’t an acceptable energy source in the modern day.

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

This is very dangerous!!  The depot had depleted uranium shells.  With westerly winds, Europe may have some problems

(Reuters/zerohedge/EpochTimes)

Russia Strikes Ukrainian Arms Depot, Prompting Speculation Of Possible Fallout

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Adam Morrow via The Epoch Times,

Moscow says its forces have destroyed a large munitions depot in Ukraine’s western city of Khmelnytskyi.

“One AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] ammunition depot has been destroyed close to Khmelnytskyi,” the Russian Defense Ministry stated in its daily briefing for May 14. Khmelnytskyi, the target of Russian strikes in February, is located roughly 170 miles southwest of Kyiv.

Ukraine’s Energy Ministry confirmed that a “massive” Russian barrage damaged an energy facility in the city in the early hours of May 13.

According to the ministry, the local power supply wasn’t affected by the strikes.

The city’s local military administration similarly reported that multiple drones had targeted “critical infrastructure.”

Khmelnytskyi’s mayor, Oleksandr Symchyshyn, said schools, residential buildings, and industrial facilities were damaged in what he described as a “terrorist attack.”

Speaking on the Telegram messaging app, Symchyshyn claimed that the Russian strikes had left a number of civilian residents injured.

On the same day, a Russian missile barrage destroyed a storage facility in the Ukrainian city of Ternopil, located just west of Khmelnytskyi.

Fallout Concerns

Following the strike in Khmelnytskyi, video footage began circulating on Russian social media accounts that purportedly shows CCTV footage of the blast. The footage shows a facility—the nature of which is unclear—being rocked by a massive explosion, sending an enormous fireball into the sky.

The Epoch Times couldn’t verify the authenticity of the footage or whether it portrayed the recent Russian strike in Khmelnytskyi.

Nevertheless, the scope of the blast—and its fiery aftermath—has reportedly prompted speculation online that the targeted facility housed Western-supplied munitions containing depleted uranium.

In March, the UK announced plans to provide Kyiv with depleted uranium shells for its Challenger 2 combat tanks, 14 of which have already been sent to Ukraine.

Due to their extremely high density, depleted uranium shells are able to penetrate heavy armor. But they can also pose health risks to humans, animals, and ecosystems in and around impact areas.

Following London’s announcement, Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned that the potential effects of munitions containing depleted uranium would be “impossible to control.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to “respond accordingly” if such munitions are employed on the battlefield.

According to Intel Slava Z, a pro-Moscow news aggregator, rumors have spread on Ukrainian social media that the recent explosion in Khmelnytskyi had led to the dispersal of depleted uranium particles.

In a Telegram post, it claimed that there were “already reports” that radiation levels had surged in the vicinity of the city.

The Epoch Times was unable to verify the assertions.

Allies Pledge More Arms to Kyiv

The strike in Khmelnytskyi coincided with a trip by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Berlin, where he met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

It was Zelenskyy’s first visit to the German capital since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine—Moscow calls it a “special military operation”—early last year.

Shortly before the Ukrainian leader’s arrival, Germany unveiled a fresh $3 billion aid package for Kyiv—its single largest contribution to date.

On May 15, Zelenskyy visited London, where UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged to provide Ukraine with additional long-range missiles and attack drones. Last week, the UK announced that it had delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which boast a range of more than 150 miles.

Speaking to Sunak, Zelenskyy said his country’s ongoing conflict with Russia was a matter of “security” for Ukraine and “all of Europe.”

Soon afterward, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the UK of “pumping weapons” into Ukraine.

“This won’t drastically change the course of the special military operation,” he said. “But it will definitely lead to further destruction.”

According to Sunak’s office, the UK prime minister plans to urge Kyiv’s other allies to step up support for Ukraine’s war effort at an upcoming meeting of G-7 leaders.

Reuters contributed to this report.

END

TURKEY

Turkey spent a massive 177 billion USA dollars to defend the Lira and it still collapsed to 19.71 from 18 50 a few months ago.

Now we have a two week period of uncertainty.

(Bloomberg)

Market Braces For Turkish Lira Collapse To 24 Per Dollar

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 02:45 AM

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

Turkey’s currency markets are on tenterhooks as the possibility of a runoff presidential vote opens up two weeks of uncertainty.

One-month volatility on the lira has surged to 48%, meaning the markets are braced for a possibility that the lira may decline to as much as 24.12 per dollar from 19.65 now. Preliminary results on Monday showed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a lead of more than 2 million votes but still without enough to avoid a second round on May 28 against rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

The central bank’s back-door interventions to prop up the lira since December 2021 reached nearly $177 billion in April ahead of the elections, with the tally amounting to some $30 billion in April alone, according to Bloomberg Economics. Meanwhile, combined foreign-investor holdings of Turkish stocks and bonds amounted to less than $24 billion on the Friday before the vote, a far cry from levels of above $150 billion a decade ago.

Over in Thailand, it’s a different story, with the baht advancing on news that opposition parties are on course to wrest power from the nation’s military-backed government. While there is still much short-term uncertainty, the baht — which tumbled below 38 per dollar last year — looks on course to consolidate its gains in 2023 given the optimism surrounding the domestic economy.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Russia took out USA supplied Patriot Missile Unit in a huge hypersonic strike on Kiev

(zerohedge)

Russia Says It Took Out US-Supplied Patriot Missile Unit In Hypersonic Strike On Kiev

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 10:25 AM

Russia’s military may have taken out a US-supplied Patriot anti-air battery in Ukraine, which if true would be a very significant first since the advanced Raytheon-made defense weapon was deployed there.

This came as Ukrainian officials have cited an exceptionally dense attack on Kyiv overnight, which included cruise missiles and drones, and even allegedly Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Ukraine was hit by at least 18 missiles and nine drones were sent, with media reports saying some six ballistic missiles (including Kinzhal) were launched. But the Ukrainians are saying that most or all of them were intercepted.

Serhiy Popko the head of the Kyiv city military administration described the barrage as “exceptional in its density, with the maximum number of missiles in the shortest time possible,” but that “the vast majority of enemy targets in Kyiv’s airspace were detected and destroyed.” Ukraine is now claiming it successfully intercepted multiple hypersonic missiles. A previous claim to have intercepted a hypersonic from days ago was met with widespread skepticism among independent pundits. 

The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) has previously dismissed the Ukrainian claims of hypersonic intercepts as “wishful thinking.”

But the Russian side is celebrating a big victory of sorts too on Tuesday, saying it landed a precision strike a Patriot air defense system in the Ukrainian capital. The US-supplied systems only arrived last month, and just recently entered operation.

The MoD says in a briefing that its attacks destroyed “Ukrainian troops positions and places of storage of munitions, weapons and military hardware delivered from Western nations.”

Russia’s RT followed by stating the following: 

A precision strike by a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile has destroyed a Patriot air defense system in Kiev, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Tuesday. The Ukrainian government previously claimed that Kinzhal missiles had been intercepted by the US-made weapons platform.

The Russian military did not provide further details about the strike, which was the first time Moscow claimed to have hit the long-range system supplied to Ukraine by its Western backers.

Currently there’s speculation over whether a widely circulating video confirms the destruction of a Patriot battery amid the conflicting Russian and Ukrainian claims.

Geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama says the reports of a destroyed Patriot system are accurate:

This is factual:

Patriot Missiles Won’t Save Ukraine – National Interest – May 9, 2023Patriot systems are limited to pinpoint defense of major assets and are designed to operate in tandem with air defenses engaging targets at higher and lower altitudes. Without these additions, Patriot will have too many threats to engage and the result will either be porous coverage that doesn’t protect its defended assets, or coverage that quickly subsides when Patriot runs out of interceptors.

Moreover, Patriot systems are themselves vulnerable. Operating a Patriot radar system gives away its location, making it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a one-stop-shop for defending Ukraine’s military assets or its people.

Those facts were proven last night…

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are still claiming they shot down six entire Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in a single night, which seems impossible given the projectiles travel at multiple times to the speed of sound and have been touted since their development as “impossible” to defend against.

Commenting the video of the purported Russian direct-hit on the Patriot battery, Kim Dotcom wrote on Twitter, “30 US Patriot PAC-3 MSE launch at a cost of $5 million per missile. That’s $150 million gone within 2 mins. At the end the Patriot launch platforms were destroyed by Russian missiles. Why would any military still want to buy Patriot after this failure?” 

For these reasons, the Pentagon is unlikely to confirm the event even if true, given it consistently and almost exclusively backs the narrative advanced by Ukraine’s defense ministry. For example, last Thursday US defense officials announced confirmation of Ukraine’s claims that its military intercepted an inbound Russian hypersonic missile utilizing the Patriot system. That was the first time of the war that the Ukrainian side claimed to have accomplished the feat.

end

RUSSIA/IRAN/UKRAINE

Huge Russia-Iran defense partnership to obtain more drones 

(zerohedge)

US Describes Full-Blown Russia-Iran Defense Partnership As More Drones Sought

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 11:45 AM

The White House continues raising the alarm over what it is describing as a full-blown military partnership between Russia and Iran, after the US has for the past half-year documented a significant rise in Iranian drone usage in Ukraine. 

National security spokesperson John Kirby said in a Monday briefing that the two countries are expanding their “unprecedented defense partnership” including Tehran sending Moscow over 400 drones in the prior several months. This makes the Islamic Republic a “top military backer” of Russia’s war efforts, Kirby said. He stressed Russia is now seeking to purchase additional drones after depleting its stockpile in Ukraine.

“Russia has expended most of these UAVs using them to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure,” Kirby said while reiterating it “has been directly enabling Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.”

“Iran also continues to provide Russia with one-way attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). Since August, Iran has provided Russia with more than 400 UAVs primarily of the Shahed variety.”

Concerning the potential sale of more Iranian advanced weapons to the Russian military Kirby stressed “there is every reason to believe that Russia will use them to continue their attacks against Ukrainian targets.”

In addition to drones artillery and tank rounds have been supplied, with the US mulling additional sanctions in an effort to halt the transfers. He called on global partners to work with Washington to prevent the transfers.

Kirby additionally described that the military support is going the other way too, with Russia offering Tehran the ability to purchase missiles, air defense systems as well as military electronics. 

Both countries have for months sought to downplay that the growing partnership is aimed at bolstering operations in Ukraine. In March while on a visit to Moscow, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian sought to emphasize that “Cooperation in the sphere of defense is one of the issues on the bilateral cooperation agenda while it is not directed against any third country” – he said in a response to continuing US allegations.

Back in February the White House said that the Iran-Russia partnership could even turn to the Iranians eventually receiving Russian fighter jets, which would certainly set off alarm both in Israel and at the Pentagon. 

end

USA/EUROPE/UKRAINE//RUSSIA

Ukraine Aid Funding Expected To Run Out By Mid-Summer

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 03:25 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The last massive aid package Congress authorized for Ukraine has about $6 billion left, which is expected to be used up by mid-summer, Politico reported Monday.

So far, the US has authorized about $113 billion in spending on the war in Ukraine, which includes military aid, direct budgetary aid, training, funding for US troop deployments in Eastern Europe, and other types of assistance.

Once the final $6 billion dries up, the Pentagon won’t be able to ship more weapons to Ukraine. That means the White House is expected to ask Congress to authorize more spending on the war soon.

A senior Biden administration official told Politico that the White House is discussing a new package and is going to time it so the weapons can keep flowing to Ukraine. The official said the administration is “fully committed” to supporting Kyiv in the war “for the long haul.”

The Politico report said that massive aid packages for Ukraine might not be as easy to ram through Congress as they were before, citing the debate over the debt ceiling and dissent from a small but significant group of Republicans.

But the majority of Republicans support arming Ukraine, including GOP leadership, who have been critical of President Biden for not sending longer-range weapons and fighter jets.

“Although there are dissenting voices, the large majority of certainly Republicans — for sure in the Senate and arguably in the House as well — believe strongly that we need Ukraine to win and that the outcome there is something that matters not only to that region, but to the United States and our national security interests,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

On the Democrat side, there is virtually no opposition to arming Ukraine. While there’s still strong support in Congress for arming Ukraine, hawks in Washington are concerned it could decline if Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive fails.

END


6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE  ISSUES/

GLOBAL ISSUES

end

Vaccine issues:

Fired Teachers Who Refused COVID Vaccine To Get Full Reinstatement And Back Pay

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Three Rhode Island teachers who were fired for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine have been offered their jobs back with full back pay after reaching a settlement with the school district.A COVID-19 vaccination hub at Central Falls High School in Central Falls, Rhode Island, on Feb. 13, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Teachers Stephanie Hines, Brittany DiOrio, and Kerri Thurber were terminated from their positions in Barrington Public Schools after they had requested a religious exemption after the school mandated employees get the vaccine.

Last week, their attorney, Greg Piccirilli, and the school district said they had reached a settlement, allowing the teachers to return to their jobs. They are also each entitled to $33,333 in damages along with their back pay. DiOrio will get $150,000, Thurber will get $128,000, and Hines will receive $65,000 under the agreement.

“The three teachers have the opportunity to return to teaching positions within the Barrington School District should they choose to do so, at the steps they would have been at had they worked continuously,” the Barrington Public Schools district said in a statement on May 11.

In a statement to the Boston Globe, Piccirilli said that his clients are “extremely gratified that they’ve been vindicated in their position,” adding that he will get $50,000 in attorneys fees as part of the settlement. “A lot of people were dismissive and skeptical of their claims at the time,” he told the Boston Globe. “They went through a lot of personal trauma dealing with this. Their faith has gotten them through this.”

Meanwhile, Barrington Public Schools told the Providence Journal that it reached the settlement because the litigation would likely put a drag on the school’s resources and funding. It attempted to distance itself from its own vaccine mandate by claiming that it was dealing with the spread of COVID-19, although there is a growing body of evidence that shows the vaccines do not prevent the spread of the virus.

“Our district was navigating an unprecedented health pandemic and leaned on the important recommendations by the CDC and the Rhode Island Department of Health to ensure the safety of our students and school community,” the Barrington School Committee said Thursday, according to the outlet. “Our then-policy helped combat the pressing public health crisis of the time, while keeping schools open, and [was] one that nearly all faculty and staff adhered to.”

It added that “we determined this ongoing, expensive litigation” would likely continue for a lengthy period of time, and a resolution should be reached because the “administration’s time, and our district’s financial resources, should be spent on the daily work and mission of Barrington Public Schools … our School Committee looks forward to continuing to support this important work.”

Details

The three were first placed on unpaid leave in late 2021 before they were fired in January 2022, according to statements made by the district and the teachers. During a hearing in Barrington in October 2021, DiOrio said that she “did nothing wrong.”

“I have done nothing wrong. This is destroying my future ability to earn a living,” she said of the mandate. “What makes me more of a threat now? Is this how a highly-rated school department treats its people?”

At the time,  Sara Rapport, a lawyer representing the School Committee, said that the teachers were violating the school policy for not complying, adding that committees have the plenary authority over school interests. She said that the teachers’ decision not to get vaccinated pose a greater risk to students.

“Teachers have a right not to be vaccinated,” she said in late 2021. “But every decision has consequences. Religious beliefs do not override the health and safety of the community.”

Read more here…

end

END

DR PAUL ALEXANDER:

Fraiman et al. showed excess risk of serious adverse events following mRNA technology based COVID gene injections (Pfizer and Moderna); do not forget the government criminals who mandated an unsafe

vaccine; Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).’

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 15
 
SHARE
 

SOURCE:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22010283?via%3Dihub

‘Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95 % CI −0.4 to 20.6 and −3.6 to 33.8), respectively.

Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83).

The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI –23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33).

Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI −3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).’

‘found one serious adverse event for each 800 vaccinees.   That translates to about 1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients. DHHS reports the rate for other vaccines is only 1 or 2 per million.’

Sensible Medicine

Why We Question the Safety Profile of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines

By Robert Kaplan and Sander Greenland A new bivalent COVID vaccine will become available this week. The FDA used results from mouse experiments and the original vaccine trials to reassure the public that the new boosters are safe. Is this evidence sufficient…

Read more

end

Air Canada & Air Transat pilot Eddy Vorperian at 48  (25 years experience), dies suddenly May 3; this is the 5th sudden pilot death & 10 known inpacitations: was this the mRNA technology COVID shot?

Did the deadly Malone Kariko Weissman mRNA technology based COVID gene injection vaccine kill him? Those who brought the mRNA technology brought DEATH, like Oppenheimer & A bomb, he admitted it!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 16
 
SHARE
 

Makis did a great substack today and I share below, as to this pilot death.

I do not play with words. I feel strongly this pilot may have had silent myocarditis and died from vaccine induced myocarditis. You cannot take it off the table in this era of sudden ‘died suddenly’ deaths. Malone Kariko Weissman must answer under congressional oath for their mRNA work, and I don’t care how much they send people out to claim their initial invention was changed (and is now modified) by Pfizer and Moderna etc. It is their invention that was never safety tested, that they brought, that is the basis of the deaths from the mRNA COVID gene shots and yet today, all they do is benefit with money, donations, fame, talk shows, fluff pieces and no Freedom Fighter media will even ask the right questions.

DNA plasmids, reverse transcription, moving from the injection site etc. They all knew this but were silent. Why?

Malone as one of the inventors, knew it was very deadly, he knew it reversed transcribed back to DNA, he knew it did not stay at the injection site, he know many things yet was silent. How could he not? It was his invnetion as he said. Has he and Kariko et al. benefitted from patents direct or indirect. Making $? Is this so? I do not know but this has been suggested and I simply wish this clarified openly. I am not saying it is so.

How could one company be trying to save lives and put out supplements that could offer help and Malone goes on to then bash the company and go as far as to say he does not endorse such? Why do that when the spike recovery from TWC (TWC.Health) offers possible help with the NATTOKINASE formula? Any formula with NATTOKINASE. Anything that could help. Why bash that? Will Malone be bringing his own similar supplement and thus did that to damage competition? We need to know, direct or indirect why he did that. I found bizarre. And worked against helping the public. I really find this unfortunate and would like him to explain his actions/statements with EPOCH.

And then writes in circles and about horses and we are not interested. All of these people fool around with fluff pieces (e.g. the Freedom Movement media are a joke in the tank pimping off donor money too) that have nothing to do with their death invention. I guess Robert Oppenheimer had the stones at least to admit he brought death with the Atomic bomb, so will these technocrats, these pipetting chemists for thats all they ever were, admit that they brougth death? Will they too be accountable as we seek accountability from Fauci et al. or are they really created personas for others to have shows and make money? Tell me? When will they be asked the right questions? Is this all a money making Ponzi scheme building up personas for people to make money off of the pain and suffering of COVID?

I and many want answers from Malone and Kariko and Weissman et al. as to how come they have not brought an antidote that could have saved lives and how come they did not come out early to warn against the shots and how come the games and play with language etc.? How come? I think we deserve answers, don’t you? Something. If they invented it as they say, then they must know ways to mitigate its effect especially at the mRNA technology level. They must know. Do you not think so? I do. At the translation level of the synthetic spike protein. You cannot tell me you invented something and someone can take it and add something to it or modify it and you have no idea how to take back control or to turn it off etc. You must have some means to impact how it is operating for you invented the core technology. You would be lying if you said opposite. We simply need to know and in clear language, why no effort has been made to mitigate and eliminate the effects of the spike protein, short, medium, and longer term. And if you can do it. If you cannot, just say so. But tell us why for it needs to make sense. At present, actions make no sense and all I and others seek is information on mRNA technology harms and for it to make sense. If you cannot fix the mRNA technology in the vaccine, then say so and tell us explicitly why not.

The families of these pilots seek answers. It is only fair.

Have we all been played by all involved?

Makis has joined me at TWC Canada and I share this well done substack piece:

‘VIDEO: Air Transat performs Water Canon salute for the returning body of Pilot Eddy Vorperian.

No photo description available.

END

Remember when Austria confined UNVACCINATED to their homes, while the government knew full well for the data was clear, that there was no difference between the vaccinated & unvaccinated in terms of

viral load & transmission; it is for these draconian COVID lunatic policies that we do not forget. We get accountability and justice. We drag these demonic government people into proper courts

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 16
 
SHARE
 

Then it went to, after massive societal protest:

end

Thank you POTUS Biden, thank you for another exhibition of pure utter devastating foreign policy failure! ‘China and Russia are increasing their military collaboration, Japan’s foreign minister warns’

You Biden flipped Russia to China fully; Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi has expressed concern about Russian and Chinese military cooperation in Asia, saying the security situation in Euro

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 16
 
SHARE
 

END

Thai (adolescent) COVID mRNA technology based gene vaccine study by Mansanguan et al.: imperative you remember that in n=301 students 13-18 years, cardiovascular manifestations were found in 29.2%

Post vaccine, cardiovascular symptoms were tachycardia (7.64%), shortness of breath (6.64%), palpitation (4.32%), chest pain (4.3%) & hypertension (3.99%); at least one elevated cardiac biomarker in 7

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 15
 
SHARE
 

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36006288/

‘Myopericarditis was confirmed in one patient after vaccination. Two patients had suspected pericarditis and four patients had suspected subclinical myocarditis. In conclusion, Cardiovascular manifestation in adolescents after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination included tachycardia, palpitation, and myopericarditis.’

Alex

END

DR. PAUL ALEXANDER

DR PANDA

END

END

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
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EVOL NEWS

 
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VACCINE IMPACT

$14 Billion in Foreign Deposits at Silicon Valley Bank were NOT Bailed Out – More than $1 Trillion Foreign Deposits at Chase and Citibank as U.S. Debt Crisis Looms

May 15, 2023 3:19 pm

The Wall Street Journal sent shock waves through the financial world Saturday night when they reported that the FDIC seized nearly $14 billion in foreign deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in the Cayman Islands last March, mostly from Chinese investment firms, which had been waiting to gain access to their funds. It’s not happening. As Pam Martens reported this morning, this will most certainly cause a bank run on all unsecured foreign deposits, which is over $1 trillion in just two banks: JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup’s Citibank. As Mike Shedlock of MishTalk.com reported, the FDIC has now sent a clear message to foreign depositors: You can’t trust U.S. Banks. If this news wasn’t bad enough, we also have the alleged political posturing going on right now over whether or not Congress is going to raise the U.S. debt limit, or default on some government obligations, like U.S. Treasuries. Asia (Japan and China) holds a vast majority of foreign held U.S. Treasuries, and probably a lot of the same investment firms that just lost all their deposits at Silicon Valley Bank. This past Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. has “to default on something” if a new debt ceiling is not reached by Congress, and that includes U.S. Treasuries.

Read More…

Elon Musk is Latest Billionaire to be Subpoenaed in Jeffrey Epstein Virgin Island Case

May 15, 2023 5:57 pm

Elon Musk became the latest billionaire subpoenaed in the Jeffrey Epstein Virgin Island case today. He has allegedly been trying to avoid being served since last month. According to investigative reporter Whitney Webb, Epstein provided business contacts to Musk helping him start Tesla and SpaceX. Elon’s brother, Kimbal Musk, sits on the board for Tesla and SpaceX, and also dated one of Epstein’s girlfriends. In a 2020 article published in The Sun, Musk’s ex-wife Talulah Riley denied “truly awful” rumors that Ghislaine Maxwell had handpicked her to be Musk’s “child bride”, although she did admit that she and her then-husband Musk had been entertained at Jeffrey Epstein’s house in New York City.

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

The Default Setting

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 09:31 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Wouldn’t it be great if we could hold down a button and reset the world back to the default setting we thought was normal before our present mishigas?( Harvey: Mishigas means craziness) Boy, could we do with it!

Neoclassical economic models think we constantly mean-revert anyway, ignoring the role of credit, supply chains, political-economy, and geopolitics. It’s like a Google Maps that only does straight roads, not bends: worth following for long stretches when nothing is happening, but wrong every time we turn left or right. In the real world, sharp bends are all around us.

The Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman today warns: ‘Xi Jinping’s Taiwan ambitions threaten China’s rise’, not the first op-ed warning of the risk of war. The same paper reports that shipping groups are increasingly seeking break clauses in contracts with Chinese businesses to make it easier for them to walk away from any deals if sanctions are imposed on China: why the sudden concern, and wouldn’t that imply massively disrupted supply chains? Elsewhere, Iran seized a third oil tanker, and nobody seems to have even noticed. There is also not much coverage of Special Counsel Durham’s report into Russiagate concluding the Department of Justice and FBI “failed to uphold their mission of strict fidelity to the law.” Will we now reset journalism to the default setting of bipartisan honest-brokers? Right after we dump neoclassical economic models.

US Treasury Secretary Janet “No financial crisis in my lifetime” Yellen is warning there are only days left until the US defaults on its debts, as President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy ceremonially rip the steering wheels out of their cars today in a pre-2024 game of chicken. We can expect things to get worse before they get better, but that we aren’t seeing wholesale selling of Treasuries down the curve, or the US dollar suggests nobody sees this is an existential issue – yet. However, as Yellen failed to take advantage of the lowest rates in history to refinance the public debt to limit pain from the rates re-set higher which the Fed she still speaks as if she runs is inflicting, the question will linger. And note the interest on the US federal debt is set to exceed spending on the Pentagon soon, as military spending is set to be higher for longer. Something is going to be reset. It’s just a question of what.

The Fed’s Bostic just stressed the “longer” in “higher for longer” rates too despite the New York Fed manufacturing survey collapsing to -31.8 from 10.8 prior and vs. -3.9 expected. Dovish Vice-Chair Goolsbee says he is getting “vibes” of a credit squeeze beginning. Yet some think that squeeze is what the Fed wants to see if the lending is frivolous rather than anything productive. Indeed, are the Fed trying to return the US economy to its historical default setting of low inflation, high production, not financialisation, and military strength in depth? The question is then how the liquidity keeps flowing to anything productive when it dries up to anything frivolous. I’ve made that point repeatedly because there isn’t any other policy that works: it’s just a question of how this is done and when. Meanwhile, the market obviously thinks the US default setting is very low inflation, very low rates, and very low domestic production of everything except financial assets (“Who needs HIMARS, we have CDOs!”).

In China, production is not matched by domestic demand outside services, for now: see ‘Recovery on shaky legs?’ from Teeuwe Mevissen, who thinks USD/CNY will test 7 again. Indeed, today’s China data were mostly big misses, with industrial production 5.6% y-o-y vs. 10.9% consensus, 3.6% year-to-date (y-t-d) vs. 4.9%; retail sales 18.4% y-o-y vs. 21.9% consensus, 8.5% y-t-d vs. 8.2% – which doesn’t match the trend of lower imports; fixed asset investment 4.7% y-o-y y-t-d vs. 5.7%, and property investment -6.2% y-o-y y-t-d vs. -5.7%. Overall, this looks deflationary.

Yet the European Commission just raised its Eurozone inflation outlook and warned of “persistent challenges”. CPI is now seen at 5.8% y-o-y in 2023 vs. 5.6% before, and 2.8% for 2024 vs. 2.5% – and that is despite the sharp fall in energy prices. Core inflation is seen much higher than in the last projection, and only declining slowly, remaining above the 2% target in 2023 and 2024. So, “Länger höher”, even as March industrial production data were -1.4% m-o-m.

In the Antipodes, the chatter is the RBNZ may hike Kiwi rates to 6% and the RBA to 4.35%, a message broadly backed by its latest set of minutes, which noted upside risks to sticky services inflation and the fact that strong population growth combined with low rental vacancy rates could see rents jump even higher than the RBA’s own elevated forecasts. So higher rates….which will then be passed on directly to renters by landlords! Meanwhile, headlines are still of properties next to sewer vents going for millions of dollars as multiple families bid to buy themselves protection from an unofficial political-economy default setting of ‘neo-feudalism lite’. As one US presidential candidate flags removing the right to vote for those under 25 unless they perform national service –welcome to ‘Starship Troopers’, where service guarantees citizenship: “Would you like to know more?”– an Aussie Twitter wag says every Australian should be subject to military service until they buy a home. Which is how thinks used to work once, of course.  

Like I said, it would be great to be able to reset everything – but it just isn’t going to happen. Or at least not in the way that most people expect.

end

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0896 UP 0.0023

USA/ YEN 135.81  DOWN 0.222  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2508  UP    0.0062

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3462 DOWN .0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 19.75 PTS OR 0.60% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 7.12 PTS OR 0.04%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .49%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 7.12 PTS OR 0.04   %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.75 PTS OR 0.60%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.49% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 216/65 PTS OR 0.73% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2007,55

silver:$23.77

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.11 DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.143%  UP 3   in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.393 % DOWN 1  AND 3//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.412 UP 4 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.213 UP 3  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3395  UP 3  BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0864 DOWN  0.0009 or 9  basis points 

USA/Japan: 136.56 UP .526  OR YEN DOWN 53 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2487 DOWN .0037 OR 37   BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP  .0013 OR 13 BASIS pts  to 1.3454

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN.(6.9758)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9945

TURKISH LIRA:  19.72 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.393…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from MONDAY at  3.556% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.886 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.0884% UP 9  in basis points.

 USA dollar index, 102.45 UP 17  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 25.27 points or   0.32%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 10.58 PTS OR 0.07%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 9.74 PTS OR 0.13%

Spain IBEX DOWN 5.70 PTS OR  0.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 25.23 PTS OR 0.09%

WTI Oil price 70.75     12: EST

Brent Oil:  74.92      12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  80.35/ ROUBLE  DOWN 1 AND   20//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3395 UP 5 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.856 UP 7  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0865 DOWN 0.0006   OR 6 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2487 DOWN   .0037 or  37 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.825% UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.32 UP .283 //YEN DOWN 28 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3470  UP .0003 CDN dollar, DOWN 3  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.69

Brent OIL:  74.77

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 3.5450% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3  BASIS PTS to 3.860% 

USA 2 YR BOND:  UP 7  PTS AT 4.076%  

USA dollar index: 102.39 UP 12 BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.73

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  80.49  DOWN 1   AND  24/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 336.46 PTS OR 1.01% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 12.51 PTS OR 0.093%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.82 UP 0.70 PTS (4.09)%

GLD: $184.87 DOWN 2.34 OR 1.25%

SLV/ $21.81 DOWN  0.29 OR 1.31%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Biden & Bad Data: Big-Tech Bid, Banks Skid; Bonds & Bullion Breakdown

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 04:02 PM

Mixed macro and debt ceiling drama dominated the day…

  • Overnight saw shockingly ugly data in China (good news – more stimmys?)
  • US Consumer bad – Home Depot earnings and outlook cut (blamed on weather and lumber)
  • US Consumer good – core (nominal) retail sales better than expected (headline weak and YoY very weak)
  • US Industrial production strong-ish (despite manufacturing surveys being a disaster)

However, put it all together and global macro surprises indices are tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

US homebuilders are all bulled up on the future (shame that homebuyers are not)…

Source: Bloomberg

The T-Bill curve got crazier as no progress was apparent in the debt ceiling talks… Late-day headline that President Biden will be returning early (on Sunday) from his Asia trip suggested that nothing will be done any day soon…

Regional banks got no favors from any short-squeeze today and faded…

And only big-tech (Nasdaq) ended higher among the US majors with Small Caps worst (Dow and S&P behind in the red). The late day headline about Biden cutting his trip short made it clear that he doesn’t expect any deal this week and markets faded into the close…

Treasuries tumbled today, likely driven by a massive issuance from Pfizer, after being bid overnight after China’s crappy data. The short-end underperformed modestly

Source: Bloomberg

2Y Yield broke back above 4.00%

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied back to almost unch on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped back to hold around $27,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil slipped lower with WTI back at a $70 handle ahead of tonight’s API data…

Gold broke back below $2,000 and accelerated lower…

Source: Bloomberg

As Spec longs maybe quickly unwound around that key level…

Finally, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes, the increasingly evident “dragging” global economic impact (that we noted at the top) is feeding a larger pivot back towards “Bonds As Your Hedge”…

Treasury-Equity correlation has swung significantly negative…

Source: Bloomberg

… and further strengthens the world of 60/40 Balanced Funds to Risk Parity to “Secular Growth / Mega Cap Tech” Equities, as “the end of the tightening cycle” looks even more evident into the increasingly global slowdown.

b) last night trading: DEBT CEILING

Yellen reiterates her warning of June l being the x date for debt ceiling

(zerohedge)

“Could Be Days” – Yellen Reiterates Warning Of June 1st ‘X-Date’ For Debt-Ceiling

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 04:36 PM

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has written to Congress, reiterating her warning that – in her completely apolitical position – the US government will run out of extraordinary measures to keep paying the bills by June 1st

As Bloomberg reports, the US Treasury Department said in a statement Friday that it had just $88 billion of extraordinary measures to help keep the government’s bills paid as of May 10.

That’s down from around $110 billion a week earlier and that means that just over a quarter of the $333 billion of authorized measures are still available to keep the US government from running out of borrowing room under the statutory debt limit. 

Yellen’s accompanying letter is excerpted here (emphasis ours)

Dear Mr. Speaker:

I am writing to follow up on my previous letters regarding the debt limit and to provide additional information regarding the Treasury Department’s ability to continue to finance the operations of the federal government.

In my May I letter, I noted that our best estimate was that Treasury would be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June if Congress docs not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. In that letter, I also noted that  it is impossible to predict with certainty the exact date when Treasury will be unable to pay all the government’s bills.

I would continue to update Congress as more information becomes available.

With additional information now available, I am writing to note that we still estimate that Treasury will likely no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1.

These estimates are based on currently available data, and federal receipts, outlays, and debt could vary from these estimates.

The actual date Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of days or weeks later than these estimates.

I will provide an additional update to Congress next week as more information becomes available.

We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States.

In fact, we have already seen Treasury’s borrowing costs increase substantially for securities maturing in early June. If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests.

The T-Bill curve ‘kinked’ even more on the new letter…

Her warning fits with Piper Sandler’s Don Schneider’s calculations that have seen the window collapse recently…

which likely explains why USA Sovereign risk is continuing to push new record highs…

end

this morning’s commentary on the debt ceiling pricing:

(Bloomberg)

Much Of The Markets Still Don’t Believe The US Can Default

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 06:55 AM

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

“if political [debt ceiling] kabuki ends in risk-off drama then Fed does QE (like BoE last Oct)…this is why other assets classes not worried.” – BofA’s Michael Hartnett

Except in some specific corners, most of the markets don’t quite buy the story that the US Treasury could, after all, default on its obligations.

T-bills due around the estimated time of the X-date have shown some angst, with yields on one-month instruments up some 200 basis points in less than a month. Meanwhile, credit-default swaps are pricing in a 3% chance of a default. While that may not seem alarming, that default pricing is way higher than in 2011 and 2013, when we were last witness to such stress.

Yet, the rest of the markets are still pretty sanguine about the eventual outcome. The S&P 500 is still holding onto to its 7+% rally for the year, while the Nasdaq 100 is up a gravity-defying 22%. Front-end Treasury yields have come off more than 100 basis points from their peak for the cycle, but that is more a reflection of the markets positioning — rightly or wrongly — for a putative Fed pivot rather than anything to do with the debt-ceiling impasse. Gold, which BBG readers reckon will be a haven should the US indeed default, hasn’t done much so far this month.

While the supposed X-date — when the Treasury will have run through its gamut of emergency maneuvers — is supposedly June 1, in reality it may turn out to be different because it’s impossible to look through the crystal ball and know precisely when, say, tax receipts may flow in. That is perhaps one reason the markets reckon that lawmakers will do what common sense dictates by the time the D-Day rolls in.

The point, though, is the the US economy, already facing considerable headwinds from the turmoil in the banking industry, isn’t quite so well-placed to flirt with another Wile E. Coyote moment. And that is the part the stock markets haven’t quite priced in — yet.

end

late this morning:/debt default coming?

McCarthy Says Debt Ceiling Talks ‘Not In A Good Place’ As Yellen Warns ‘Time Is Running Out’

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 08:50 AM

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said on Monday that negotiations over the debt limit with Democrats and President Joe Biden are “not in a good place,” and that Biden had delayed talks for 100 days.

“We only have so many days left,” McCarthy said on Monday – reiterating today that there had been ‘no progress’ in the talks. “The president decided to wait 100 days before he would negotiate. He treated this the same way he treated the border [crisis]—he wanted to ignore the problem.”

McCarthy and Biden are scheduled to meet at 3pm ET on Tuesday.

Complicating matters is a Biden’s scheduled trip to Japan on Wednesday to attend the Group of Seven meetings.

According to McCarthy, Democrats “would have to get serious about negotiating” before he considers any progress to have been made. “They would have to really talk about where they’re going to go.”

“I don’t think we’re in a good place, I know we’re not. This ignoring the problem, thinking it will go away … he could bumble his way into a default just like he did on the border.“

McCarthy has sought to use the threat of defaulting on the nation’s debts to force Democrats to limit their spending. “Save, and grow,” he said of the GOP’s economic strategy.

“Time is of the essence,” was McCarthy’s message for Biden on Monday. He has argued that the government can’t continue to spend money at the pace it is now.

An increase in the debt limit would not authorize new federal spending. It would only allow for borrowing to pay for the policies and legislation what Congress has already approved. –Epoch Times

“I’m really concerned that the Senate hasn’t passed anything. I’m really concerned that the president waited 100 days before he’d even talk to us. I’m really concerned about the president’s continued spending, of what it will do to Medicare and social security,” McCarthy said on Monday. “I’m really concerned about … instead of the Democrats sitting down, realizing we have a division in government, and being honest and adult and discussing this but simply lying about what we’re doing.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen echoed McCarthy’s warning on Monday, saying that “time is running out” to avert an economic catastrophe, and that default could see financial markets “break” with worldwide panic that triggers margin calls, bank runs and fire sales.

“We are already seeing the impacts of brinksmanship: investors have become more reluctant to hold government debt that matures in early June,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports. “The impasse has already increased the debt burden to American taxpayers.”

The Treasury chief issued a fresh letter to congressional leaders Monday restating that the Treasury risks running out of sufficient cash for all federal obligations as soon as June 1. The livelihoods of millions of Americans “hang in the balance,” she said in excerpts of her speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America Capital Summit released by the Treasury.

“Every single day that Congress does not act, we are experiencing increased economic costs that could slow down the US economy,” Yellen said.

Biden and McCarthy have been at an impasse since January over raising the government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. Economists have cautioned that US default risks triggering a market selloff, a surge in borrowing costs and a blow to the global economy that could rival the 2008 crash.

According to people familiar with the meetings, the White House has pushed to exclude elements of a bill passed by House Republicans last month – including the elimination of Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program, as well as several legislative accomplishments.

Republicans, meanwhile, have rejected a Democratic proposal that would seek to raise revenue by altering a dozen provisions of the tax code, including a cryptocurrency loophole which allows investors to claim losses on assets that they then purchase. Another proposal from Democrats would be the elimination of a loophole that allows large real estate investors to effective receive interest-free government financing, Bloomberg reports.

According to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), the GOP has three red lines; no clean debt increase, no tax increase, and the bill must reduce the deficit.

Yellen also addressed recent banking turmoil, reiterating that US deposits remain safe.

“Recent banking troubles including the resolution of First Republic are not a sign of any shift in the fundamental health of the US banking system,” she said, adding “Americans should rest assured that their deposits are safe. Their deposits will be there when they need them.”

end

II) USA DATA/

TIC

Strange! China suddenly buys USA treasuries amid the March USA banking crisis.  The globe’s gold reserves hit record highs.

(zerohedge)

China Suddenly Buys TSYs Amid March US Banking Crisis, Gold Reserves Hit Record High

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 05:00 PM

China bought more US Treasuries in March (US banking crisis) than it had since January 2021, adding $20 billion (the first buying month since July 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is a bounce from its lowest levels since June 2010.

China’s proxies were also buyers in March as the SVB collapse saw safe-haven demand soar…

Source: Bloomberg

UAE, Germany, and Iraq were the biggest sellers.

In aggregate, Treasuries were bought (but at a slower pace) and stock holding soared…

Foreign buying of Treasuries increased by $35.8BN, down from $57.6BN, 11th straight month of foreign TSY buying.

Breaking that Treasury buying down we see that after 12 months of selling by foreign official institutions, Feb and March saw buying, $48.0BN and $16.5BN respectively.

Meanwhile, foreign private buying of Treasuries is relentless, and extends to 17 consecutive months, with $19.3BN bought in March, after $9.6BN bought in Feb.

So of the $35.8BN buying in total TSYs, $16.5BN was foreign official, and $19.3BN was foreign private

Foreign buying of Agencies increased by $16.8BN, up from $14.2BN; there hasnt been a foreign sale here since March 2017.

Foreign buying of Corporate bonds increased by $21.8BN, the most since April 22 ($22.4BN), and non-stop buying in the series since Dec 21.

Foreign buying of stocks soared by $36.1BN, a reversal after two months of sales and the biggest foreign buying since Dec 22.

Finally, the trend of de-dollarization continues with global gold reserves hitting a new record high according to The IMF…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury holdings did also rebound strongly in the last period (after plunging) as the SVB banking crisis rippled across the world.

end

This is one of the more important data points as USA retail sales is generally 70% of GDP.  The result was disappointing as it showed the slowest annual growth since 2020.

(zerohedge)

Headline US Retail Sales Disappoints In April, Slowest Annual Growth Since May 2020

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 08:38 AM

Weak tax refunds were expected to weigh on retail spending going forward, but perhaps not quite yet as expectations were for a MoM rebound from March’s unexpected decline with omnciscient BofA forecasting around consensus:

And rebound it did, but the headline print was disappointing – up only 0.4% MoM (vs +0.8% MoM exp) – but core and control group data (which fits into GDP calcs) were better than expected

  • Retail Sales 0.4%, Exp. 0.8%
  • Retail Sales ex Auto 0.4%, Exp. 0.4%
  • Retail Sales Control Group 0.7%, Exp. 0.3%

Prior months were revised little stronger:

  • March Retail sales -1.0%, Revised to -0.7%
  • March Retail sales ex auto -0.8%. Revised to -0.5%
  • March Retail sales control group -0.3%, Revised to -0.4%

What is more notable is that (nominal) retail sales rose just 1.6% YoY (well below inflation) – the slowest since May 2020 – suggesting the consumer is feeling the pinch in a big way…

Source: Bloomberg

All of the YoY measures are at their slowest pace since COVID lockdowns…

Under the hood, 7 out of 13 retail categories rose last month.

The value of motor vehicle sales increased 0.4%, while receipts at gasoline stations fell 0.8%…

The market seems most focus on the Control Group’s beat with 10Y Yields up 4bps post-date.

end

USA industrial production jumped in April.  Take this reading with a grain of salt

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Jumped In April

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 09:27 AM

Despite a bloodbath in regional Fed manufacturing surveys, US industrial production and manufacturing activity jumped (unexpectedly) in April.

Headline Industrial Production rose 0.5% MoM in April (up from the 0.5% MoM rise in March and well ahead of the 0.0% change expected). However, on a YoY basis, industrial production remain languishing around unchanged…

source: Bloomberg

Additionally, after a 0.8% MoM decline in March (revised down from -0.5%), US Manufacturing production rose 1.0% MoM (smashing the 0.1% MoM expectation)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, even that was not enough to get Manufacturing back above 0 on a YoY basis.

Capacity Utilization picked up modestly too…

Is this the ‘soft landing’ everyone hoped for?

Or is it just more manufactured data?

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

HOME DEPOT/USA

Home Depot plunges after worst revenue miss in 20 years.  They slash their guidance!! They of course blame the weather, the price of lumber and faltering consumer demand

(zerohedge)

Home Depot Plunges After Worst Revenue Miss In 20 Years, Slashes Guidance; Blames Weather, Lumber And Faltering Consumer

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 08:04 AM

Ahead of this week’s earnings-season ending barrage of retail data, analysts and traders were asking if the strong consumer spending momentum from early in the season would carry through or if we would see an uglier side to the US consumer. The answer was delivered moments ago from Home Depot, is decisively the latter.

Home Depot reported its biggest revenue miss in more than 20 years and slashed its outlook for the year as consumers delay large projects and buy fewer big-ticket items like patio sets and grills, the latest sign consumers have maxed out their credit cards after splurging on Weber grills, hot tubs, and patio sets during the pandemic years. 

The largest US home improvement chain said comparable sales are expected to decline between 2% and 5% this fiscal year compared with last year, both missing badly the consensus estimate of -0.73%. Home Depot previously forecasted sales would remain flat. It blamed lower lumber prices and bad weather on the rough start to the year. 

For the first quarter, comparable sales fell 4.5%, far worse than the expected 1.4% drop, the latest indication that the housing market boom is cooling, which may be a symptom the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy is working. 

“After a three-year period of unprecedented growth for our sector, during which we grew sales by over $47 billion, we expected that fiscal 2023 would be a year of moderation for the home improvement market. Our sales for the quarter were below our expectations primarily driven by lumber deflation and unfavorable weather, particularly in our Western division as extreme weather in California disproportionately impacted our results,” said Ted Decker, chair, president and CEO.

“We also observed more broad-based pressure across the business compared to when we reported fourth quarter results a few months ago. Despite a more challenging environment, our associates maintained their relentless focus on our customers, and I would like to thank them and our many partners for their hard work and dedication. While the near-term environment is uncertain, we remain very positive on the medium-to-long term outlook for home improvement and our ability to grow share in a large and fragmented market,” said Decker.

Here are the earnings highlights (via Bloomberg): 

Q1 Results:

  • Net sales $37.26 billion, -4.2% y/y, estimate $38.34 billion
  • EPS $3.82 vs. $4.09 y/y, estimate $3.80 * Customer transactions -4.8%, estimate -5.36% 
  • Comparable sales -4.5% vs. +2.2% y/y, estimate -1.42%
  • US comparable sales -4.6% vs. +1.7% y/y, estimate -2.14% 
  • Average ticket sales $91.92, +0.2% y/y 
  • Average ticket +0.2%, estimate +2.63%
  • Sales per square foot -4.7%
  • Merchandise inventories $25.37 billion, estimate $26.16 billion
  • Total location count 2,324, +0.3% y/y, estimate 2,323
  • SG&A expense $6.36 billion, -3.9% y/y, estimate $6.84 billion

2024 Forecast:

  • Sees comparable sales -2% to -5%, estimate -0.73%, saw approx. flat (Bloomberg Consensus) 
  • Sees sales -2% to -5%, saw approx. flat
  • Sees EPS down 7% to 13%, saw down mid-single-digits 
  • Sees operating margin 14% to 14.3%, estimate 15.5%

Richard McPhail, executive vice president, and chief financial officer, warned about the “continued uncertainty regarding consumer demand.” 

Home Depot was the first major retailer to report its first-quarter earnings. Target and TJX Cos. will release earnings on Wednesday. Walmart is on Thursday.  On Monday, we shared the latest monthly Consumer Checkpoint report published by Bank of America which showed signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. 

In kneejerk reaction, Home Depot shares tumbled as much as 5% before recovering some losses.

Minneapolis

This was fun to watch!

Watch: Meleé Erupts At Minneapolis Dems’ Nominating Convention

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 06:20 PM

A convention of Democrat city council candidates devolved into utter chaos on Saturday, prompting a police and ambulance response and the session to be shut down without finishing its business. 

The convention was being held by the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, which — in something of an historical quirk — is the official name of Minnesota’s affiliate of the national Democratic Party.

The trouble began when incumbent Council Member Aisha Chughtai took the stage to deliver her 10-minute candidate presentation. To provide an impressive backdrop, the Chughtai campaign asked supporters to take the stage and stand behind her as she spoke. 

That triggered backers  of Chughtai’s challenger, Nasri Warsame — despite the fact that Warsame was randomly picked to speak second, and could have ventured to match Chughtai’s visuals by inviting a similar display. 

Instead, supporters of Somalia-born Warsame surrendered to violent impulses, and reportedly initiated physical violence that included shoving, punches and the hurling of objects. Many of them took to the stage themselves, yelling, waving “Nasri” signs and pounding on tables. 

Recounting her feelings as she looked from the stage onto the melee before her, Chughtai supporter Bridget Siljander told Associated Press, “I was scared some of us might die.”

Briana Rose Lee, a fluorescent pink-haired theater arts grad and chair of the Minneapolis chapter of the party, tweeted that “several DFL volunteers were assaulted, including four members of the State Executive Committee…I don’t know the next steps yet. But there will be repurcussions.”  

zerohedge.com/political/watch-melee-erupts-minneapolis-dems-nominating-convention

As the unrest continued, indignant convention chair Sam Doten shouted condemnation through the PA system: “This is embarrassing!” Quickly concluding there was little hope of restoring order, Doten yelled, “We are shutting this down! This is no longer safe!” before hammering a table with his gavel. 

Police cars and ambulances raced to the convention. At least one person was taken to a hospital and another was treated at the scene. Fittingly for an eruption of Democrat-initiated violence, no arrests were made. 

Democrats’ beloved multicultural diversity factored into the fracas, particularly in regard to Somali supporters of Warsame. One of his backers told the Minneapolis StarTribune that Warsame supporters were already agitated over what they perceived to be poor translations and unfair handling of the proceedings.

Some may have misconstrued the mass gathering on stage as a premature declaration of victory for  Chughtai, a daughter of Pakistani immigrants and a self-avowed socialist. Chughtai was elected at the age of 24, making her the city’s youngest-ever member of city council, and its first Muslim. 

In the aftermath, both candidates exchanged accusations via social media. Hilariously looking to maximize intersectionality-victimhood credits, Chughtai said Warsame supporters “punched multiple women of color” and “shoved and harassed LGBTQIA2S+ delegates and supporters.” 

Warsame accused DFL staff of “resort[ing] to corrupt practices in an attempt to cheat the democratic process. This included the involvement of Ilhan Omar’s staff and Keith Ellison’s son, adding to the turmoil and conflict…It is our hope that the DFL staff will take responsibility for their actions and work towards rectifying the damage caused by their misconduct.” 

State party chairman Ken Martin, however, firmly pinned the blame on the Warsame camp: 

“It is clear that the conflict was instigated by supporters of city council candidate Nasri Warsame. Harassment and violence are unacceptable, and we expect candidates and their campaign teams to work hard to curb such behavior when it comes from their supporters, staffers, or volunteers. 

Warsame and his team took the opposite approach at today’s convention by escalating the situation and encouraging conflict. Reprehensible behavior like this from any DFL Party candidate and campaign will not be tolerated.”

Separately, Martin said he will convene an emergency meeting this week to consider banning from the party people who were at fault on Saturday.   

In a Sunday statement, Warsame reiterated his accusations of DFL mismanagement and said accusations by DFL and Chughtai that Warsame’s campaign promoted the violence “are defamatory, slander and libel.”

At the same time, Warsame apologized and condemned the violence, saying “the purpose of my entire platform is supporting public safety and ensuring that the constituents in Ward 10 are safe from the violence of rampant car thefts and assaults in our community.”

end

New York

This is as dangerous as can be!

(zerohedge)

NY Parents In Uproar As City Houses Migrants In School Gyms

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 11:05 AM

Drowning in a tidal wave of international diversity, New York City keeps turning to increasingly desperate — and now dangerous — measures to house migrants. 

In a move that’s outraging parents, New York City has started housing migrants in the gymnasiums of schools across the city. Many of the effected schools are elementary schools. 

“We care about asylum-seekers, and we’re proud our city is a ‘sanctuary city’ — but housing asylum seekers on school grounds is absolutely unacceptable,” Virginia Vu, a PTA member at a Brooklyn school, told The New York Post.”

For parents who oppose the move, safety is a major concern. “Schools are kept secure for a reason. Parents have to sign in and provide ID when they go into school — now there’s migrants in the playground,” parent Damaris Fernandez told the New York Post.A melting pot of outrage: Parents Gabriela Vizhnay, Sheldon Austin and Samantha Clark outside PS 172 in Brooklyn after they learned migrants will be housed in the school gym (Gregory P. Mango/New York Post)

“This should not impact school operations, nor will families have access to any other part of the school where students and staff are,” the principal of one effected school, MS 577, wrote to parents in a letter.

Of course, it’s one thing to declare the hallways, classrooms and lavatories off-limits to migrants, and another to set up a fail-proof means of keeping them out…and various photos have captured migrants milling around outside the schools. A union of school safety agents has objected to the plan, saying their role is to protect school kids, not monitor migrants. 

Many parent aren’t buying the official reassurances. “No f**king way — I’m not bringing [my kids] back until I’m sure there won’t be grown men in their gym,” said one parent with kids in kindergarten and second grade at PS 172.Migrants fill the gym at a former New York police academy (New York Post)

The flip side of confining migrants inside gyms is that it takes those gyms away from the children. “The students will be trapped inside and will not be able to go outside for recess or physical education, which will be a huge detriment to their wellbeing,” said Vu. “These kids just came through COVID, and now they’re being locked inside the classroom.”

It’s not just the concept that’s upsetting parents, but also how it’s been communicated. “They really didn’t tell the parents anything until the kids came home and said something,” a parent told New York’s News 4.

In a statement, the office of New York City Mayor Eric Adams said, “We are opening emergency shelters and respite centers daily, but we are out of space. As the mayor has said, nothing is off the table as we work to fill our moral mandate, but we should all expect this crisis to affect every city service.”

The school news controversy comes on the heels of our Sunday report about wedding parties and homeless military veterans having their stays at suburban New York City hotels cancelled so the properties can be used to house migrants instead.  

NBC New York found an unnamed resident — but apparently not a student’s parent — who backed the school-gym scheme: “I’m Ukrainian myself. I support refugees,” she said. 

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

Trump: The American public was scammed! The Durham report

(zerohedge)

“The American Public Was Scammed”: Trump Responds After Bombshell Durham Report ‘Exonerates’

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 05:14 PM

Update (1850ET): Former President Donald Trump on Monday has responded through a spokesman, saying that the report “proves” a coordinated effort by the federal government to interfere with the 2016 US election.

“WOW! After extensive research, Special Counsel John Durham concludes the FBI never should have launched the Trump-Russia Probe! In other words, the American Public was scammed, just as it is being scammed right now by those who don’t want to see GREATNESS for AMERICA!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“The Durham Report spells out in great detail the Democrat Hoax that was perpetrated upon me and the American people. This is 2020 Presidential Election Fraud, just like ‘stuffing’ the ballot boxes, only more so.”

“This totally illegal act had a huge impact on the Election. With an honest Media, we are looking at the Crime of the Century!”

Here’s a summary of the main findings from Techno Fog via The Reactionary:

  • “The FBI discounted or willfully ignored material information that did not support the narrative of a collusive relationship between Trump and Russia.”
  • Crossfire Hurricane “was opened as a full investigation without [the FBI] ever having spoken to the persons who provided that information.” Days after it was opened, Peter Strzok was telling a London FBI employee that “there’s nothing to this.”
  • Internal FBI communications discussing the Crossfire Hurricane during its early stages: it’s “thin” and “it sucks”.
  • British Intelligence pushed back on Mueller requests for assistance: “[a British Intelligence person] basically said there was no [expletive] way in hell they were going to do it.”
  • Durham documents TWO investigations into Hillary Clinton – one involving the Clinton Foundation and one involving illegal foreign contributions to Clinton’s Campaign.
  • In one Clinton Campaign investigation, an FBI confidential human source (CHS) had offered an illegal foreign contribution to the campaign through an intermediary. The Clinton Campaign was “okay with it” and “were fully aware”. The CHS offered the FBI a copy of the credit card charge; the FBI never got receipts. In fact, the FBI handling agent told the CHS “to stay away from all events relating to Clinton’s campaign.”

*  *  *

Special Counsel John Durham released his final report on Monday following over three years of investigation into the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia probe.

According to Just the News, the report concludes that the FBI had no verified intelligence or evidence when it opened up an investigation into Donald Trump and his campaign in the summer of 2016.

Durham placed blame on the FBI and DOJ for failing to follow their own standards in a probe which should have never taken place – including the agency’s surveillance of an American citizen without basis.

“Based on the review of Crossfire Hurricane and related intelligence activities, we concluded the Department and the FBI failed to uphold their important mission of strict fidelity to the law in connection with certain events and activities described in this report,” wrote Durham.

“The FBI personnel also repeatedly disregarded important requirements when they continued to seek renewals of that FISA surveillance while acknowledging — both then and in hindsight — that they did not genuinely believe there was probable cause to believe that the target was knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of foreign power.”

Meanwhile, CNN’s Jake Tapper said the report is “devastating to the FBI.

“https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/durham-releases-final-report-concludes-fbi-opened-trump-probe-despite-no-verified-intel

end

My goodness: the IRS abruptly removes the investigative team from the Hunter Biden probe according to the whistleblower’s attorneys

(zerohedge)

IRS Abruptly Removes Investigative Team From Hunter Biden Probe: Whistleblower’s Attorneys Claim

MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 11:10 PM

Authored by Steve Straub via The Federalist Papers,

In an alarming move that has raised eyebrows and suspicions about the integrity of federal agencies, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) abruptly removed the entire team working on the high-profile tax fraud investigation of Hunter Biden, first son of President Joe Biden.

This drastic action allegedly came on the orders of the Justice Department, adding to the widespread concern among conservatives about potential corruption and the abuse of power within the federal government.

The abrupt reassignment of the investigative team has been perceived by many as retaliation against the supervisory special agent whistleblower, who alleged a coverup of the controversial probe.

The agent, who has been overseeing the investigation since early 2020, was informed of this sudden personnel change, according to a letter from his attorneys, Mark Lytle and Tristan Leavitt, to Congress.

In the letter, Lytle and Leavitt suggested that the removal of the investigators not only constituted retaliation but could also be construed as an obstruction of a congressional inquiry.

The attorneys pointed out that their client had a legal right to make disclosures to Congress under 5 U.S.C. § 2302 and that any attempt to prevent a federal employee from furnishing information to Congress is a direct violation of long-standing appropriations restrictions.

They further emphasized that the removal of the experienced investigative team was the very issue the whistleblower initially sought to expose.

Hunter Biden, who was seen giving journalists a thumbs-up during his daughter Maisy’s graduation ceremony from the University of Pennsylvania, is the alleged subject of the coverup claims.

Communications retrieved from his abandoned laptop revealed that he had paid up to “half” of his income to his father, President Joe Biden.

This controversy arose simultaneously with the release of the long-awaited report by special counsel John Durham detailing bias in the FBI’s investigation of former President Donald Trump’s alleged links to Russia.

The timing of these events has further incensed conservatives, fueling claims of a biased news cycle.

The IRS whistleblower first surfaced last month when Lytle informed congressional leaders that his client wished to expose the “preferential treatment” in the Hunter Biden case and the alleged false testimony to Congress by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Garland had repeatedly reassured lawmakers that Delaware US Attorney David Weiss could unilaterally make charging decisions in the investigation.

This information comes amid reports of “growing frustration” within the FBI over Weiss’s failure to bring charges against Hunter Biden, despite the bureau concluding most of its work last year.

Weiss, a Trump administration holdover endorsed by Delaware’s two Democratic senators, had been at the helm of the investigation, which reportedly began in 2018.

This incident is not the only whistleblower complaint to surface recently. Another whistleblower informed Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that the FBI has a file from 2020 alleging that Joe Biden accepted bribes as vice president.

These allegations led House Oversight Committee chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) to issue a legally binding subpoena for the document.

However, the FBI, in a move that further intensifies the scrutiny on federal agencies, refused to comply and submit the document to Congress last week.

The meeting between Hunter Biden’s attorneys and Justice Department leaders a week after the IRS whistleblower stepped forward has sparked speculation that a charging decision may soon be reached in the tax fraud investigation.

Nonetheless, critics argue that such a decision has been long overdue, and the delay only adds to the growing frustration within the FBI and the mounting skepticism among conservatives.

These recent events have raised serious questions about the impartiality of federal agencies and their alleged use as political tools.

The sudden removal of the IRS investigative team from the Hunter Biden probe, particularly in the wake of the whistleblower’s allegations of a coverup, signifies a troubling trend.

It serves as a stark reminder of the need for transparency, accountability, and the rule of law within these agencies to ensure they act in the best interest of the American people, rather than as political instruments.

The weaponization of federal agencies is a matter of grave concern for conservatives, who view these incidents as blatant attempts to shield the Biden administration and hamper the proper functioning of democratic institutions.

As this story unfolds, it further underscores the pressing need for an unbiased investigation into these allegations to restore public faith in the integrity and independence of federal agencies.

end

Victor Davis Hanson: Hang All The Members Of The Liars’ Club?

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2023 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Federal prosecutors last week announced the indictment of U.S. Representative George Santos (R-N.Y.) on a host of charges, including misuse of federal campaign funds and wire fraud, almost all of them resulting from his pathological lies.  

Certainly, Santos deserved the attention of prosecutors for lying on federal documents and affidavits that may have helped him win a congressional seat as well as personal lucre. 

But if that’s the case, why haven’t federal prosecutors also gone after Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)? She clearly lied her way into a Harvard Law School professorship and an erstwhile presidential candidacy by claiming, in part, quite falsely she was a Native American, supposedly Harvard’s first indigenous law professor. 

Her Senate colleague, Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), flatly lied (he said “misspoke”) about being a Vietnam War veteran. He never confessed to “misspeaking” about his résumé until caught. Both senators, apparently like Santos, gained political traction in their various campaigns from such lies, but the two apparently never put them in writing, or at least not as blatantly as did Santos. 

New Federal Standards? 

Are federal and states prosecutors now setting a new moral and legal standard by criminalizing Santos’ lies? If true, congratulations—it is long overdue. 

Now can we please extend the long arm of the law to reach far beyond a bit player like Santos? 

Why not reboot with the really big liars? Their lies far more undermined the integrity of our key agencies and indeed our national security. 

So let us start with John Brennan, the former CIA director. He lied on two separate occasions, in one case while under oath before the U.S. Senate. His untruths were not mere campaign finance fabrications. They involved falsely swearing that the CIA did not spy on the computers of Senate staffers (“Let me assure you the CIA was in no way spying on [the committee] or the Senate.”). He also lied that U.S. drone missions in prior years had not killed innocent bystanders (“There hasn’t been a single collateral death because of the exceptional proficiency, precision of the capabilities that we’ve been able to develop.”).  

Brennan, only when caught, admitted to both lies. But he faced zero consequences and, in fact, was soon rewarded with an on-air analyst job at MSNBC.  

Then we come to James Clapper, the former director of the Office of National Intelligence. Like Santos, he lied. But unlike Santos, Clapper was under oath to Congress. And further unlike Santos, Clapper was not a small fish, but a whale in charge of coordinating the nation’s intelligence bureaus.  

Clapper’s lies mattered a great deal, especially when he swore to Congress that the National Security Agency did not spy on Americans. (“No, sir. Not wittingly.”) When caught, Clapper confessed that he gave “the least untruthful answer.” (“I responded in what I thought was the most truthful, or least untruthful, manner by saying ‘no.’”). He faced zero consequences for his perjury. And like Brennan, he marketed his anti-Trump phobias into a comfortable cable news gig. 

Note well that both Clapper and Brennan likely lied again when they signed the infamous Hunter Biden laptop letter, with a wink and nod suggesting it was a hallmark example of “Russian disinformation.” 

Then we come to the former interim FBI Director Andrew McCabe. He is also currently working as a cable news commentator. McCabe admitted to lying—according to the inspector general, “done knowingly and intentionally”—four separate times to federal investigators, three times under oath. McCabe misled the country in matters that concerned a national election, more specifically lying that he had not leaked to the media to massage media narratives about the FBI’s investigation of the Clinton Foundation.   

Then there is James Comey, another former FBI head, who confirmed McCabe had lied. He simply claimed on 245 occasions to House investigators and members that he either had no memory or had no knowledge, when asked under oath to explain some of the wrongdoing of the FBI during his directorship. Remember, Comey and the FBI signed off on the authenticity of Steele document material to obtain a FISA warrant, when they knew it was unreliable and Steele was not credible. Comey also likely leaked to the media a confidential memo officially memorializing a private conversation with the president of the United States. 

Should we include yet another former FBI director? Robert Mueller swore under oath to Congress that he knew little about Fusion GPS (“I’m not familiar with that”) and more or less had ignored the Steele dossier. (“It’s not my purview.”) Mueller’s claims cannot be true because revelations about both were the very catalysts that prompted his own special counsel appointment.  

Will the Santos prosecutors go after Anthony Fauci, the recently retired head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases?  

Fauci seemingly lied under oath to the Senate when he preposterously claimed the money he channeled through a third party to the Wuhan virology lab did not entail support for gain-of-function virology research. (“The NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”) Many virologists were aghast at Fauci’s claims, since they knew gain-of-function research conducted in China—the point being to skirt U.S. laws—was precisely what the U.S.-subsidized researchers in China were doing.  

The Bidens 

Prosecutors are currently looking at the various shenanigans of Hunter Biden, whose lies may even be a match for those of George Santos. Joe Biden’s son apparently lied on his firearms background check affidavit when applying for a handgun purchase—so far, with impunity.  

When asked point blank on national television whether his lost laptop was his own—he had signed a receipt for it at the repair shop—Biden refused to give a yes or no answer.  

Hunter Biden has apparently de facto lied for years when he purportedly did not report either his entire income or his real business expenses accurately, or that he was the father of a child he conceived with an ex-stripper in Arkansas.  

If Hunter’s lies do not match the number of Santos’ prevarications, his were at least far more significant. His lie that the laptop was not his prompted current Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a former top Biden 2020 campaign aide, to call up Mike Morell, former interim CIA director. Morell’s mission was to round up as many intelligence authorities as he could to lie on the eve of a presidential election that the laptop had “all the hallmarks” of “Russian disinformation.” He found 51, including himself. Apparently, some active members of the CIA pitched in as well to lend the letter additional authenticity. 

Note that Morell swears Blinken called him to solicit signers of the bogus letter, while Blinken claims he did not. So either the current secretary of state or the former interim director of the CIA is lying—or they both are. Again, among the first to sign the fraudulent intelligence letter were Brennan and Clapper. They apparently had earned a reputation as team players, given that both men had been willing to lie under oath to Congress. Misleading the nation again about the laptop to aid Joe Biden’s campaign was small potatoes. 

Biden, on spec, promulgated the lie when he said in his second debate with Trump, “There are 50 former national intelligence folks who said that what he’s accusing me of is a Russian plant. Five former heads of the CIA, both parties, say what he’s saying is a bunch of garbage. Nobody believes it, except his good friend Rudy Giuliani.” 

A subsequent poll suggested the Bidens’ concocted laptop lies may have influenced voters to side with Biden in the election. If true, that was a lie that should be of far more interest to current federal prosecutors than Santos’ crazy fairy tales. 

The Lies of the “Big Guy” 

So we come to the greatest prevaricator of all.  

Joe Biden flat-out lied on numerous occasions, such as when he claimed that he never discussed the family shake-down business with Hunter Biden.  

Joe Biden, in fact, turns up on the laptop as someone deeply connected to Hunter Biden’s quid pro quo companies (“10 [percent] for the Big Guy”). Tony Bobulinksi, a former business associate of Hunter’s, has sworn that Joe and his brother Jim Biden were deeply involved in their foreign leveraging efforts.  

A photo shows Joe Biden with Hunter’s “business” associates. Will the current Santos prosecutors turn their attention to the Oval Office occupant’s financial records to determine whether his lavish private homes and lifestyle were viable under his reported stated income? 

Biden lied to Americans dozens of times to get elected. The tragic death of his wife in a car accident was not due to the drunkenness and fault of a truck driver. That was a horrific smear designed to shift blame onto an innocent man and gain sympathy for himself.  

He lied that his son, Beau, died while serving in Iraq.  

Biden dropped out of the 1988 presidential race after he was caught lying about his college records and plagiarizing a speech from a British politician.  

So we know that in the past, Joe Biden’s lies have left a mark on history in a fashion that Santos’ never will. 

When Biden prefaces his whoppers with “No joke!” or “This is the God’s honest truth!” and especially when he swears, “My word as a Biden!” then it is a fair bet that he is lying. 

When Biden entered office, he lied about the number of Americans previously vaccinated under the Trump Administration and preposterously claimed there had been no COVID vaccine available.  

He lied that his loan forgiveness amnesty passed Congress by two votes. In fact, Biden simply declared amnesty by fiat and never submitted the request to Congress at all.  

He repeatedly lies that billionaires pay only three percent of their income in taxes on average. He lies about minor details, from giving his Uncle Frank a purple heart to matters of national concern, such as the price of gas when he entered office. It was most certainly not $5 a gallon!  

Biden constantly lies about his résumé. He was never a long-haul truck driver. Nor was he a star athlete almost headed for the Naval Academy on a sports scholarship if only Dallas Cowboys legend Roger Staubach had not beat him out. “I was appointed to the academy in 1965 by a senator who I was running against in 1972. I didn’t come to the academy because I wanted to be a football star. And you had a guy named Staubach and Bellino here. So I went to Delaware.”

His house was never almost destroyed by a fire. He was never raised “politically” as a Puerto Rican. Biden never pinned the Silver Star on a Navy Afghanistan war hero for bringing back the body of a fellow soldier from a deep ravine. He was never arrested, either in South Africa or in Atlanta, for demonstrating on behalf of civil rights. 

No foreign leader can believe Biden. He never traveled 17,000 miles with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He lied about his own Amtrak travel. He lied about his record on inflation and economic growth. He lied about upping Social Security payments. (It was a larger-than-usual automatic cost-of-living increase spurred by his inflationary policies.) He lied about the nature of the Trump tax cuts.  

Biden keeps lying that the southern border is “secure” even as nearly 2 million people have crossed illegally on his watch and tens of thousands more are massed to enter the country as Title 42 restrictions are lifted.  

He insists that five police officers died at the hands of protestors on January 6, 2021. In truth, the one person we know for certain who died violently that day was Ashli Babbitt, an unarmed protester who was shot and killed by a Capitol Police lieutenant with a checkered record, whose identity was suppressed for months while Babbitt’s past was sullied by the press. 

Biden’s defenders hint that either he is cognitively compromised and thus not responsible—as if he has told the truth the last 40 years when he was hale!—or his lies are mere “exaggerations” unlike the “lies” of Trump—as if lying about the death of one’s spouse or son or school record or resume or major legislation or his presidency is a mere “exaggeration.” 

As a general rule, since 2015, if any federal bureaucrat or elected official lied in service of opposing Donald Trump, he was exempted from consequences. If not, he was properly held responsible for his lying. So the more that the fake Steele dossier, the Russian collusion hoax, and the Russian disinformation laptop lie warped the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the more the promulgators of those falsehoods never faced any consequences for their untruths. 

So, yes, let federal prosecutors go after the lying George Santos to set a precedent that the lying of government officials has consequences.  

But in the great scheme of lying things, Santos is a prevaricating minnow who was snagged to great acclaim because the lying sharks swim and circle with impunity.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report  May 16, 2023 Issue 6991Independent View of the News
 PBOC Extends Cash Support in May After Credit Growth Slumped – Bloomberg
The People’s Bank of China offered 125 billion yuan ($18 billion) of medium-term lending facility, 25 billion yuan more than the amount maturing in May. Eight of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg prior to the operation expected a flat rollover. The rate on the one-year policy loans was kept at 2.75%, unchanged for a ninth month… https://t.co/8qPVXeaknL
 
The U.S. and China Are Finally Talking Again, but Mistrust Clouds Next Steps
High-level meetings in Beijing and Europe open door to easing tensions
    A flurry of diplomacy between China and the U.S. this week points to a growing desire to begin stabilizing relations after months of free fall… https://t.co/pYCJM44aWq
 
Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee (Big-time libs) Favor Policy Pause to Watch Credit Impact – BBG 9:30 ETAtlanta Fed’s Bostic pushes back against bets on ‘23 rate cuts (Not his baseline forecast)Chicago’s Goolsbee says his May FOMC hike vote a close callTwo Federal Reserve officials signaled they favored pausing interest-rate increases, while a third policymaker suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight.
    “We at the Federal Reserve probably have more work to do on our end to try to bring inflation back down,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Monday…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/fed-s-bostic-goolsbee-favor-policy-pause-to-watch-credit-impact#xj4y7vzkg
 
Household debt hit record $17.05T last quarter as inflation squeezes Americans
Credit card debt hovers near record high in first quarter, bucking typical trend
   In the first three months of 2023, total household debt surged to a fresh record of $17.05 million, an increase of $148 billion, or 0.9% from the previous quarter. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than they were at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Debt largely grew across the board.
    Mortgage balances jumped by $121 billion to $12.04 trillion at the end of March, even as mortgage originations plummeted to the lowest level since 2014. Auto loan balances, meanwhile, rose by $10 billion in the first quarter – bucking the typical trend of balance declines in first quarters. Student loan debt also posted a modest increase, rising to $1.6 trillion…
   Credit card balances were the only form of debt that did not increase at the start of the year. Balances remained unchanged at $986 billion – the highest level on record – in the period from January to March, which is typically a time when consumers rein in spending after the holiday season and pay down debt…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/household-debt-hit-record-last-quarter-inflation-squeezes-americans
 
House Speaker McCarthy on Monday morning said debt ceiling negotiations are still far apart; Biden is not serious about negotiating; and Biden is more interested in the political optics of holding meetings than in negotiating a deal.
 
Biden optimistic about a debt limit deal, but McCarthy says White House isn’t being serious
“I still think we’re far apart,” McCarthy told NBC News on Monday outside the Capitol, adding, “It doesn’t seem to me yet that they want a deal.”  “It seems like they want to look like they’re in a meeting,” said McCarthy. “They’re not talking anything serious.”…  https://t.co/xa21phJP2Z
 
 
 
@FrancoisTrahan: A lot is out there already on Commercial Real Estate, but this is stunning. What shocks me the most is that office vacancy rates (19%) are this high when unemployment is at its lowest in over 50 years. What happens when unemployment starts to feel the lagged effects of tighter policy?
https://twitter.com/FrancoisTrahan/status/1658138807542136834
 
The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey plunged from +10.8 in April to -31.8 in May; -3.9 was consensus.  This is the biggest tumble since the Covid Panic.
 
ESMs traded moderately lower from the Nikkei open until they commenced a rally near 21:00 ET.  The persistent rally for the expected Monday rally took ESMs from 4127.25 to the daily high of 4156.25 at 4:12 ET.  ESMs then traded sideways, in a 5-handle range until they tumbled after the abysmal May NY Fed Manufacturing Survey.
 
Conditioned traders, playing for the Monday rally as well as the expiry manipulation, aggressively bought ESMs and stocks after they bottomed at 10:13 ET.  Yes, Virginia, the play for the 2nd Hour Reversal was also a factor.  ESMs peaked at 13:08 ET.  A 19-handle ESM tumble ended at 13:43 ET.
 
The afternoon rally commenced; ESMs plodded higher until the close.  Behold the power of expiry week!
 
USMs (June contract for the US 30-year bond) traded sideways, in modestly negative territory, until they broke down near 1:00 ET.  ESMs eventually hit their daily low of 129 20/32 at 10:16 ET.  USMs then bottom bumped until
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The usual Monday equity rally appeared, abetted by upward expiry manipulation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined sharply despite the ugly NY Fed Manufacturing Survey
           
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How will bulls frame the reality that there is no Fed Pivot on the horizon?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4129.32
Previous session High/Low: 4141.25; 4110.27
 
@SpeakerMcCarthy: President Biden wants you to think the sky will fall due to spending limits passed by House Republicans. The truth is we’ve proposed limiting spending to what it was just 5 months ago. It’s reasonable, responsible, and actually higher than the last Obama/Biden budget proposal.
 
WaPo (Probably at direction of WH): GOP rejected White House effort to close tax loopholes in debt ceiling talks… senior White House officials floated about a dozen tax plans to reduce the deficit as part of a broader budget agreement with House Republicans… The cryptocurrency proposal would ensure that investors could not claim a loss on an asset that they then quickly repurchased — a rule that already exists for stocks and other assets. Similarly, the real estate proposal sought by the White House would prevent investors from deferring taxes on swaps of property — similar to a rule for stock trades… (NO other specifics!)  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/15/debt-ceiling-negotiations-deadline-default/
 
Hold my beer, Budweiser! Miller Lite’s new feminist spokeswoman is here to cuss at you and explain why men are evil – Miller Lite, much like Bud Light, is showing that they have absolutely no clue who their audience is either… ironically, they use a vulgar woman who acts like a vulgar man as the selling point… https://notthebee.com/article/miller-lite-goes-all-in-on-woke-feminism-showing-that-they-also-dont-know-their-audience
 
Jim Jordan plans to summon Durham to testify after release of damning report
Special Counsel John Durham released a damning final report Monday after more than three years investigating the Russia collusion probe, declaring the FBI had no verified intelligence or evidence when it opened up the Crossfire Hurricane probe of President Donald Trump’s campaign in the summer of 2016.  “Neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion in their holdings at the commencement of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation,” Durham wrote in a 300-plus page report sent to Congress…
   “The FBI personnel also repeatedly disregarded important requirements when they continued to seek renewals of that FISA surveillance while acknowledging — both then and in hindsight — that they did not genuinely believe there was probable cause to believe that the target was knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of foreign power.”…
    “There was significant reliance on investigative leads provided or funded (directly or indirectly) by Trump’s political opponents. The Department did not adequately examine or question these materials and the motivations of those providing them, even when at about the same time the Director of the FBI and others learned of significant and potentially contrary intelligence.“… (Full report at 2nd link)
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/john-durham-releases-final-report-concluding-fbi-had-no
https://www.justice.gov/storage/durhamreport.pdf
   
@greg_price11: According to the Durham Report, the plan by Hillary Clinton to create a false story linking Donald Trump to Russia was briefed in August of 2016 by CIA Director John Brennan to President Obama, VP Biden, AG Loretta Lynch, and FBI Director Comey. (Obama & Biden knew!)
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1658196453573926953/photo/1
 
@KatiePavlich: Bill Clinton secretly met with AG Loretta Lynch in her plane on June 27, 2016 and said they talked about “golf and grandkids”. I’m sure that’s totally still truthful.
 
@seanmdav: Durham: The FBI knew Steele Dossier source Igor Danchenko’s claims about Sergei Millian were lies, which is why they never tried to even corroborate them. And yet, the FBI still put the false allegations in multiple illegal FISA warrant applications against Carter Page.
 
@Techno_Fog: The Carter Page FISA was submitted under intense pressure from the FBI leadership.
FBI Director James Comey, in particularly, wanted the Carter Page FISA – badly. Comey to McCabe: “Where is the FISA, where is the FISA?”  https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1658203024999829510
    FBI leadership was so concerned about what its agents were finding about the Steele memos that they ordered: “no more memos were to be written” Do not “document any recommendations, context, or analysis” (cover-up)  https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1658205029755396097
 
@seanmdav: Durham concluded that the lies about Sergei Millian, which were one of the pillars of the bogus Steele Dossier, were seeded in their entirety by Fusion GPS, specifically Fusion employee/contract Nellie Ohr, who is married to Obama DOJ official Bruce Ohr.
https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1658204281734832136
 
Durham calls out former CIA Director Brennan for Trump-Russia statements to media
Brennan was a prominent voice from the intelligence community promoting the collusion theory…
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/durham-calls-out-former-cia-director-brennan-trump-russia-statements
 
@Techno_Fog: Summarizing some of the most notable findings of the Durham Report. Including -FBI efforts to protect witnesses and conceal damning findings.  FBI Director Comey shutting down the Clinton Foundation investigation…     Durham documents TWO investigations into Hillary Clinton – one involving the Clinton Foundation and one involving illegal foreign contributions to Clinton’s Campaign…   The FBI and DOJ restricted both of those Clinton investigations, making sure that “essentially no investigative activities occurred for months leading up to the election.” In comparison, the FBI opened a full investigation into the Trump Campaign based on unvetted “intelligence”…
https://technofog.substack.com/p/the-durham-report
 
Ex-CIA operative @BryanDeanWright: Here’s the lesson for thousands of FBI officials: Target your political opposition using your government powers. You won’t be punished. In fact, you’ll probably get a book deal.
 
Durham’s report does not matter unless perpetrators and conspirators are vigorously prosecuted.
 
@MonicaCrowley: The Durham report finally proves what we knew all along: Mrs. Clinton, the FBI and DOJ, & our intel agencies crafted & weaponized a LIE to frame, discredit & destroy Donald Trump. This was a treasonous coup. No one’s been held accountable. That’s how corrupt the System is.
 
Ex-Trump advisor: @jason_meister: If Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, James Comey, John Brennan, James Clapper, and Adam Schiff go unpunished for treason then America is finished.
 
Donald Trump reacts to Durham Report: ‘Total vindication,’ he tells Just the News
Trump said if elected president again he will make major changes at DOJ, FBI. (Why not the 1st time?)
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/donald-trump-reacts-durham-report-total-vindication-he-tells-just
 
The Deep State and powers that be CANNOT allow Trump to win the presidency and appoint an Attorney General that would aggressively investigate and prosecute beaucoup Deep State figures and their collaborators (Congress/Business/et al) for crimes that were perpetuated for umpteen years.
 
FBI responds to scathing Durham report on Trump-Russia probe, touts ‘dozens of corrective actions’ (Not the Bee) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-responds-scathing-durham-report-trump-russia-probe-touts-dozens-corrective-actions
 
Today – The S&P 500 Index continues to thread water.  Trading schemes plus hope & hype for an accommodative Fed has been neutralizing increasingly negative economic data and news.  Action should be muted into the Biden staff-McCarthy debt ceiling talks.  Rumors and reports about the talks could impact trading.  The usual suspects are long and want to get even longer for the expiry week manipulation.  Barring profound negative news, bullish traders will buy dips and declines.
 
ESMs are -4.75 at 20:50 ET.
 
Expected econ data: April Retail Sales 0.8% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.4%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0,2%; April Industrial Production 0.0% m/m, Mfg Production 0.1%, Capacity Utilization 79.7%; May NAHB Housing Market Index 45; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 8:15 ET, Fed CVEO for Supervision Barr at House Financial Services Com 10:00 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 12:15 ET, Chicago Fed Pres on BBG TV 14:30 ET; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 15:15 ET; HD is expected to report EPS of 3.81
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4059; 100-day MA: 4023; 150-day MA: 3971; 200-day MA: 3975
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,152; 100-day MA: 33,340; 150-day MA: 33,111; 200-day MA: 32,758
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3919.40 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4184.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4113.56 triggers a sell signal
 
Blackout on Biden corruption allegations ‘markings of a state media,’ top law professor says
Turley says U.S. media reflects state propaganda in foreign countries.
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/blackout-biden-corruption-allegations-markings-state-media-top-law-professor
 
IRS whistleblower, team removed from Hunter Biden case in possible retaliation, Congress told
The Justice Department removed an IRS whistleblower and his entire team from the criminal investigation of Hunter Biden’s taxes in what his lawyers described to Congress on Monday as an act of retaliation and possible obstruction of congressional inquiries…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/irs-whistleblower-team-removed-hunter-biden-case-possible
 
‘TOTAL EMBARASSMENT’: Biden administration, New York officials slammed after homeless veterans reportedly booted from migrant hotels… As many as 20 homeless veterans were booted from hotels in upstate New York to presumably make room for the influx of migrants… https://t.co/zMNnaOUyXc
 
U.S. officials admit losing ‘operational control’ of border, drug cartels poised to seize it
Border patrol union chief warns drug lords may soon fully control illegal entries as security presence dwindles to 10%
https://justthenews.com/government/security/us-officials-admit-they-lost-operational-control-border-and-drug-cartels-poised
 
@RNCResearch: “How do you think things are going at the border?”  BIDEN: “Much better than you all expected. Ha ha ha.” “Do you have any plans to visit the border?” BIDEN: “No”
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1658085285010239489
   @GOP: This is the worst humanitarian crisis at the border in U.S. history. People are dying, and Biden is laughing. What will it take for him to care? (Depraved or demented?)
 
Biden says border looks ‘much better than you all expected’ after Title 42 ends, has no plans to visit https://t.co/mKG23aADqq
 
GOP lawmakers open probe into FEMA allegedly giving out money to ‘incentivize’ illegal migration
 
Babylon Bee: Most Democrats In Favor Of Welcoming Immigrants Into Someone Else’s Neighborhood  https://babylonbee.com/news/poll-most-democrats-in-favor-of-welcoming-immigrants-into-someone-elses-neighborhood
 
NYC School Safety Coalition Statement on Single Adult Migrants Being Housed in Schools
The NYC School Safety Coalition Statement vehemently opposes and is deeply concerned about Mayor Adams housing single adult migrants in schools… https://twitter.com/NYCSchoolSafety/status/1657881457732329472
 
Library of Congress explains why it hosted Jackson investiture but not for Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett – Library of Congress ‘has some explaining to do,’ watchdog group says
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/library-congress-hosts-event-ketanji-brown-jackson-kavanaugh-gorsuch-barrett
 
FBI Altered Crime Data to Align with Biden’s Agenda, Whistleblowers Claim
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has successfully arranged for the testimony of former FBI officials Garret O’Boyle, Steve Friend, and Marcus Allen, all of whom were suspended for expressing their concerns. These witnesses are set to reveal on Thursday the alleged retaliatory actions they have faced from the FBI for speaking out… the whistleblowers will also disclose that officials within the FBI manipulated data of domestic violent extremism to align with the political narratives of the Biden administration…
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/breaking-fbi-altered-crime-data-to-align-with-bidens-agenda-whistleblowers-claim-mace/
 
DeSantis steps in and meets with voters after Trump cancels Iowa rally, causing online firestorm
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-steps-meets-voters-after-trump-cancels-iowa-rally-causing-online-firestorm
 
Donald Trump Announces He Will Release ALL of the JFK Assassination Files if Re-Elected President (Why didn’t he do it when prez?) This represents an about face from the former president, who previously told Judge Andrew Napolitano “if you saw it (JFK files), you wouldn’t want to release it either… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/donald-trump-announces-he-will-release-all-of-the-jfk-assassination-files-if-re-elected-president/
 
Democrat’s staffers attacked by baseball bat-wielding assailant in office just outside D.C.: Aides in hospital after suspect asked for the Virginia Congressman – then assaulted them
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12086435/Democrats-staffers-attacked-baseball-bat-wielding-assailant-office-just-outside-D-C.html
 
Axios’s @AndrewSolender: Capitol Police identify suspect in the attack on Rep. Gerry Connolly’s staffers as 49-year-old Xuan Kha Tran Pham of Fairfax…Motive not clear yet…
 
@kylenabecker: Amazing. The police that followed the Patriot Front cosplay actors around like lost puppies actually cordoned off any snooping journalists to stop them from following them back to Quantico (FBI training site). You can’t make this stuff up.  *This is my smart ass way of saying this “Patriot Front” (group) is extremely suspect. At a minimum, you’ve got to think there are plenty of informants if not undercover Feds in this misfit bunch…
https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1657810677283561473
 
@ZeekArkham: I’ve taken part in mass arrest situations. The first thing I’d do, after an arrest, is pull that mask off. It’s for identification and safety purposes. I need to see whom I’m arresting and I can’t risk their airways being obstructed.  Also, if they weren’t identified yet, I wouldn’t have them so close to each other. Too much liability, including the possibility of a prisoner escaping. None of this makes sense. https://t.co/gN83WWxuYy
 
@schlopesIsBack: Joe Rogan and Matt Taibbi making fun of the absolutely absurd “Patriot Front”…
(“Have you seen anything that looks more like feds?…They look like the 101st Airborne… They looks like they got right out of BUD/S…”)  https://twitter.com/DschlopesIsBack/status/1657631624341725184
 
Public Service Alert:  Carjackers reportedly are placing fentanyl-laced (or other knockout drug) rags inside the handles of cars.  If the rag is touched, the fentanyl is absorbed via the skin. (Photo at link)
https://twitter.com/LeahRain77/status/16581

 

GREG HUNTER 

I will see you on WEDNESDAY

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