MAY 15/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $2.85 TO $2017.60
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.13 AT $24.10
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2015.95
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.08
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“America has been blessed never to have a native criminal class. Accepting Congress, of course.” … Mark Twain
GO GATA!
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Bitcoin morning price:, $27,421 UP 1256 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,396 UP 1235 dollars
Platinum price closing $1068.25 UP $7.00
Palladium price; $1533.20 UP $15.00
GO GATA!
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,725.03 DOWN 11.05 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1609.19 DOWN 6.04 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1853.95 UP 0.20 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,014.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/12/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 05/16/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 65
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 75
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
661 C JP MORGAN 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 15 4
905 C ADM 9
TOTAL: 90 90
MONTH TO DATE: 5,868
JPMorgan stopped 10/90 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 90 NOTICES FOR 9000 OZ or 0.2799 TONNES
total notices so far: 5868 contracts for 586,800 oz (18/2519 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 18 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 90,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2159 for 10,795,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $2.75..
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///
INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.13 AT THE SLV// ALSO INTERESTING
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.091 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 5291 CONTRACTS TO 142,934 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS IN FULL FORCE DURING MID CYCLE IN THE DELIVERY MONTH. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY: A HUGE 436 CONTRACTS)
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.26). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTROUS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4607 CONTRACTS (ALL OF THIS LOSS DUE TO TAS). WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 4.250 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 684 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P.. JUMP TO LONDON OF 15,000 OZ(EF.P. JUMP LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 4.25 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 17.160 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) PROBABLE HUGE NUMBER OF SHORT T.A.S. CONTRACT MANIPULATION)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL + added 8 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 9113 contracts: OR 45.565 MILLION OZ . (828 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 45.565 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 45.565 MILLION OZ/INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5291 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 684 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 15,000 OZ (DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 4.25 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 12.895 MILLION OZ + 4.25 MILLION = 17.160 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 4607 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. NO. OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS 436!!
WE HAD 18 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 90,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2147 CONTRACTS TO 521,605 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: added 114 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2147 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.40 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS 9000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)/+ /A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF 1808 T.A.S. CONTRACTS WHICH MANIPULATED THE PRICE OF GOLD AS THEY UNLOADED THE SHORT INTEREST FIRST//YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.40 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1495 OI CONTRACTS (4.650 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3642 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 521,605
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1495 CONTRACTS WITH 2147 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX (OF WHICH MOST OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO TAS MANIPULATION/1808 CONTRACTS) AND 3642 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1495 CONTRACTS OR 4.650 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3642 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2147) //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1495 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9000 OZ // NEW STANDING: 18.6158 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6/ T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1808 CONTRACTS TO WHICH THEY UNLOADED THE SHORT INTEREST FIRST)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 31,870 CONTRACTS OR 3,187,000 OZ OR 99.129 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2897 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 99.129 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 99.129/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.47% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 99.129 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALLER MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 5291 CONTRACTS OI TO 142,434 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 684 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 684 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 684 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 5291 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 684 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4607 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 23.035 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.26 LOSS IN PRICE …..(THE RAID WAS INITIATED WITH A LARGE 436 CONTRACT SHORT SELL THROUGH T.A.S.)
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.38 PTS OR 1.17% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 343.89 POINTS OR 1.73% /The Nikkei closed UP 238.04 OR 0.81% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.10 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9508 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9609 /Oil DOWN TO 70.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 74.59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2147 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 521,605 DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.40 ON FRIDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3642 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 3642 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3642 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1,495 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3642 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2147 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.40. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY MONTH.THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: A HUGE 1808 OF WHICH THE SHORT INTEREST WAS SOLD FIRST TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE)
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (18.6158) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 18.6158 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $0.40) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1495 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 4.295 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9000 oz (0.2799 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 18.6158 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.40
WE HAD +added 114 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1495 CONTRACTS OR 149,500 OZ OR 4.650 TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 193,802// POOR
final gold volumes/yesterday 245,337 FAIR
//MAY 15/ MAY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 385.812 OZ LOOMIS 6 KILOBARS . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 10,165.388 oz Delaware |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 90 notice(s) 9000 OZ 0.2799 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 117 contracts 11,700 oz 0.3639 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5868 notices 575,800 OZ 18.2519 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of LOOMIS 385,812 oz (12 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 385.812 oz 12 kilobars
Adjustments; 0/
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 207 contracts having LOST 1 contracts. We had 91 contracts filed
on FRIDAY, so we gained 90 contracts or an additional 9000 oz (0.2799 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.
June LOST 10,981 contracts DOWN to 254,747 contracts.
July added 64 contracts to stand at 1611 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 8736 contracts up to 211.851 contracts
We had 90 contracts filed for today representing 9000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 90 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,868 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY 207 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 90 x 100 oz per contract equals 598,500 OZ OR 18.6158 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (5,868 x 100 oz) x 207 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (90)x 100 oz} which equals 598,500 oz standing OR 18.6158 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 18.6158 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,666,085.702 OZ 51.822 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,592,673,564 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,401,304.774 (385,73 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,191,368.790 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,735,219 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.91 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 15//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 9988.590 oz CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 757,853.140 oz JPMorgan BRINKS |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 18 CONTRACT(S) (90,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 420 contracts (2,100,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2159 Contracts (10,795,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i)Into BRINKS: 157,717.140 oz
ii) Into JPMorgan: 600,136.000 oz
Total deposits: 757,853.140 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.624 million oz/271.107 million =51.52% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of CNT: 9988.590 oz
Total withdrawal: 9988.590 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 29.958 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.107 million oz
we have now seen the movement of the registered silver comex into the 29 million column:
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 438 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 172 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 169 CONTRACTS FILED
ON FRIDAY, SO WE LOST 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THE WERE EFP’d TO LONDON AS THERE IS NO SILVER OVER HERE FOR OUR CROOKS TO CLEAN..
JUNE HAD A 7 CONTRACT LOSS TO 1003
JULY HAD A 5626 CONTRACT LOSS TO 119,088 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 18 for 90,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 43,112 poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 75,650 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2159 x 5,000 oz = 10,795,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(438) and the number of notices served upon today 18 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 2159 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (438) – number of notices served upon today (18 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 12.895 million oz + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.250//NEW TOTAL 17.145
MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 937.64 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
CLOSING INVENTORY 470.091 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: Great Depression 2.0 Is Incoming
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 12:25 PM
Peter Schiff appeared on First TV’s I’m Right with Jesse Kelly to talk about the state of the economy, inflation, and the unfolding financial crisis. Peter warned that we’re heading straight toward Great Depression 2.0.
Jesse opened the show by noting that the CPI fell to 4.9% in April. That’s an improvement, right? Peter responded, “I guess it’s not quite as bad as it was, but it’s not good.”
If you thought prices were high before, they just went up another 4.9% from where they were a year ago, and that was up a lot from where they were a year before that.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-great-depression-20-incoming
And Peter reminded the audience that these government CPI numbers are not honest.
You basically have to double the official numbers to get a better idea of what’s actually happening with prices. So, if the government says they’re up 4.9%, they’re probably up closer to 9.8%. That is a better read on what Americans are struggling with.”
Peter explained that the method for calculating the CPI was designed to produce a lower number.
The government doesn’t have to lie. The CPI does it for them.”
Jesse said the Fed is facing a “devil’s bargain.” It has to choose between high interest rates and high inflation. Peter said we’re going to get both.
Interest rates are prices. It’s the price you pay when you borrow money. The price is going up, just like the price of everything else. And in fact, interest expense is a major part of every business. … As interest goes up, well, that’s just another cost that you need to pass on to your customers through higher prices. So, it’s a self-perpetuating spiral.”
Peter said what we really need to tackle inflation is lower government spending.
Government needs to cut spending, but that’s not happening. In fact, they’re doing the opposite. Under Biden, the government is increasing spending, so they are throwing gasoline on an inflation fire.”
So, how does this end in anything other than disaster?
It doesn’t.
That’s the only way it will end because as long as there is no disaster, we’ll keep kicking the can down the road.”
Peter said the crisis is going to come in the form of a sovereign debt and currency crisis.
So, much worse than just the garden variety financial crisis we had in 2008. Because this time, it’s not just going to be subprime mortgages that are the problem. It’s going to be US Treasury debt that’s the problem. Nobody is going to want to own our sovereign debt because of how high inflation is. And that’s also going to create a dollar crisis. There is where we’re heading and it’s a big disaster.”
Peter said everybody is pretending that we’re going to have a crisis if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling.
No! We’re going to have a crisis because we do raise the debt ceiling. Because we’ve continued to raise that debt ceiling instead of dealing with the real problem, which is not the ceiling, but the debt. The ceiling would be the solution to the problem if they only stopped raising it.”
Peter went on to explain how a currency crisis would impact the average American, pointing out that we enjoy a higher standard of living because of the dollar’s role as the reserve currency. As a result, US trading partners are willing to accept the dollars it prints. Then they loan those dollars back to the US by purchasing Treasuries and other American debt.
We basically get to buy stuff at lower prices and then borrow money at lower interest rates.”
If the world stops wanting US dollars because they no longer have confidence in the US currency’s future purchasing power in the exchange rate of the dollar versus their own currencies, it will cause the prices of everything Americans want to buy to go way up. Meanwhile, the cost of borrowing money will also go way up.
So, Americans see their standard of living go way down. Because if the price of everything goes up, they can’t afford to buy anymore. So now, a lot of the things we take for granted we can no longer afford. And to the extent that we need to borrow money, we can’t afford that either. So, the entire economy just collapses, and that is the disaster that we are heading for.”
Jesse said, “That sounds like a Great Depression or worse to me.” And Peter agreed.
Yeah, it’s probably going to be worse. It is a depression, but unlike the depression of the 1930s, where the people at least got the benefit of falling prices that provided some relief. During the depression, you lost your job, but at least the cost of living went down. And if you didn’t lose your job, you were actually better off because you had your paycheck and your paycheck went further because consumer prices fell during the 1930s. But this time, even the people who don’t lose their jobs are going to suffer because they’re going to lose the value of their paychecks. They’re going to lose the value of their savings. Because everything that you need to buy is going to be a lot more expensive. And that’s going to compound the burden for the unemployed. Because not only are they going to be without jobs, but their savings are going to be destroyed. And even if they get checks from the government, it’s not going to be enough to afford the basic necessities.”
Why can’t the powers that be see this coming? Peter said they never do. Or if they do, they lie about it.
Why couldn’t they see 2008 coming? That was obvious. Why couldn’t they see this inflation problem? I mean, they were claiming it was transitory when it was obvious that it wasn’t. It’s all about spin when it comes to the government. They’re never going to be honest. They’re either going to lie about what’s going to happen, or maybe they’re just so ignorant that they really can’t see what is clearly apparent to anybody who objectively looks at the facts. So, you’ve got to think for yourself and recognize that the government is never going to tell you about a crisis. You just need to prepare for it yourself.”
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
A DISORDERLY RESET WITH GOLD REVALUED BY MULTIPLES
Egon von Greyerz
May 15, 2023
Tectonic shifts lie ahead. These will involve a US and European debt crisis ending in a debt collapse, a precipitous fall of the dollar and the Euro with Gold emerging as a reserve asset but at multiples of the current price.
The next phase of the fall of the West is here and will soon accelerate. It has been both precipitated and aggravated by the absurd sanctions of Russia. These sanctions are hurting Europe badly and affecting the US in a way that they didn’t expect, but was obvious to some of us. The Romans understood that free trade was essential between all the countries that they conquered. But the US administration blocks have both the money and the ability to trade of the countries they don’t like.
But shooting yourself in the foot really hurts and the consequences are in front of our eyes. No foreign country will want to hold US debt or dollars. That is a catastrophic problem for the US as their deficits will grow exponentially in coming years.
So a debt collapse is not just a looming disaster but a bomb hurling towards the US economy at supersonic speed.
With the imminent death of the petrodollar and explosion of US debt, there is only one solution for the funding requirements of the US Government – the FED which will stand as the sole buyer of US Treasuries.
A CATASTROPHIC DEATH SPIRAL
So the DEBT spiral of higher debt, higher deficits, more Treasuries, higher rates and falling bond prices will soon turn into a DEATH spiral with a collapsing dollar, high inflation and most probably hyperinflation. Sounds like default to me but that word will probably never be used officially. It is hard to admit defeat even when it stares you in the face!
Yes, the US will probably obfuscate the situation with CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) but since that is just another form of Fiat money, it will at best buy a little time but the end result will be the same.
US Debt Ceiling Farce belongs to Broadway rather than Wall Street
The debt ceiling was created in 1917 as a means of restricting reckless spending by the US government. But this travesty has gone on for over 106 years. During that time there has been a total disdain for budget discipline by the ruling Administration and congress.
The problem is not just the debt but the cost of financing it.
The annualised cost of financing the Federal debt is currently $1.1 trillion. If we assume conservatively that the debt grows to $40 trillion within 2 years, the interest cost at 5% would be $2 trillion. That would be 43% of current tax revenue. But as the economy deteriorates, interest will easily exceed 50% of tax revenue. And that is at 5% which will probably be much too low as inflation rises and The Fed loses control of rates.
Thus a very dire scenario lies ahead and that is certainly not a worst case scenario.
THE FED IS BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
The Fed and the thus US government are now between Scylla and Charybdis (Rock and a Hard Place).
As it looks today, the US will bounce between Scylla and Charybdis in coming years until the US financial system and also the economy takes ever harder knocks and goes under just as every monetary system has in history.
Obviously the rest of the West including an extremely weak Europe will follow the US down.
BRICS AND SCO – RISING POWERS
The whole world will suffer but the commodity rich nations as well as the less indebted ones will ride the coming storm far better.
This includes much of South America, Middle East, Russia and Asia. The expanding power blocks of BRICS and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) will be the strong powers where a much increasing part of global trade will take place.
Barring major political and geopolitical upheavals, China will be the dominant nation and the main factory of the world. Russia is also likely to be a major economic power. With $85 trillion of natural resource reserves, the potential is clearly there for this to happen. But first the political system of Russia needs to be “modernised” or restructured.
What I outline above is of course structural shifts that will take time, probably decades. But whether we like it or not, the first phase, which is the fall of the West, could happen faster than we like.
A MONETARY SYSTEM ALWAYS ENDS IN A DEBT EXPLOSION
In 1913, total US debt was negligible, and in 1950, it had grown to $406 billion. By the time Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, debt was $1.7 trillion. Thereafter the curve has become ever steeper as the graph below shows. From September 2019 when the US banking system started to crack, the Repo crisis told us that there were real problems although no one wanted to admit it. Conveniently for the US government, the Repo crisis became the Covid crisis which was a much better excuse for the Government to print unlimited amounts of money together with the banks.
Thus, just in this century, total US debt has grown from $27 trillion to $94 trillion!
But that was history and we know we can’t do anything about the past. But now comes the fun.
I have been warning about a coming debt explosion for some time. Well, I believe this is it.
In a recent article about the price of gold I explained that the final stages of hyperinflation are exponential.
We will see a very similar exponential pattern with the coming debt explosion. If we assume that the final 5 minutes of the exponential phase started in September 2019, the stadium was then only 7% full and will in the next few years grow from 7% to 100% full or 14X from here.
This is obviously just a demonstration and no exact science, but it shows that theoretically US debt could now explode.
So let’s take a quick look at a few factors that will cause the debt explosion.
BANK FAILURES
A Hoover Institute report calculates that more than 2,315 US banks currently have assets worth less than their liabilities. The market value of their loan portfolios are $2 trillion lower than the book value. And remember this is before the REAL fall of the asset values which is still to come.
Just take US property values which are greatly overvalued by the lenders:
So the four US banks that have gone under recently are clearly just the beginning. And no one must believe that it is just small banks. Bigger banks will follow the same route.
During the 2006-9 subprime crisis, bailouts were the norm. But at the time, it was said that the next crisis would involve bail-ins.
But as we have seen so far in the US, there were no bail-ins. Clearly the government and the Fed were concerned about a systemic crisis and did not have the guts to bail in the bank customers, not even above the FDIC limit.
As the crisis spreads, I doubt that bank depositors will be treated so leniently. Neither the FDIC, nor the government can afford to rescue everyone. Instead depositors will be given an offer they can’t refuse which is compulsory purchase of US treasuries equal to their credit balance.
The European banking sector is in an even worse state than the US one. European banks are sitting on large losses from bond portfolios acquired when interest rates were negative. No one knows at this stage the magnitude of the losses which are likely to be substantial.
Both in commercial property and housing, the situation is worse in Europe than in the US since the European banks are funding most of these loans directly themselves, including € 4 trillion of home mortgages.
The banks also have a mismatch between low rates received on mortgages against high rates paid to finance them.
The ex-governor of the Bank of France and ex-head of the IMF, Jacques de Larosière accuses the authorities of subverting the private banking system with deranged volumes of QE after it had become toxic:
“Central banks, far from promoting stability, have delivered a Masterclass in how to organise financial crisis”
$3 QUADRILLION OF GLOBAL DEBT & LIABILITIES
If we add the unfunded liabilities and the total outstanding derivatives to the global debt, we arrive at around $3 quadrillion as I discussed in this article:
“This is it! The financial system is terminally broken”
Sadly, the Western financial system is now both too big to save and too big to fail.
Still all the king’s horses and all the king’s men cannot save it. So even if the system is too big to fail, it will with very dire consequences.
GOLD TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY REVALUED IN THE DISORDERLY RESET
Just over a century after the creation of the Fed and the beginning of the debt ceiling, the mighty dollar has lost 99% of its value in purchasing power terms.
And measured against the only money which has survived in history – Gold – the dollar has also lost 99%.
This is obviously not an accident. Not only is gold the only money which has survived but also the only money which has kept its purchasing power throughout the millennia.
For example, a Roman Toga cost 1 ounce of gold 2000 years ago, which today is also the price for a high quality man’s suit.
You would have thought that losing 99% of its value for the reserve currency of the world would be a disaster. Well it is of course, but the US, as well as most of the Western world, has adjusted by increasing debt exponentially to make up for the disastrous debasement of the currencies.
What is even more interesting, gold is up 8-10X this century against most currencies.
That is a superior performance to virtually all major asset classes.
And still nobody owns gold which is only 0.5% of global financial assets.
More recently gold is at all-time-highs in all currencies including the dollar.
But in spite of the extremely strong performance of gold or more correctly put, the continued debasement of all currencies, no one talks about gold.
Just looking at the number of articles covering gold in the press in the graph below (white bars), it confirms that the most recent price increase of gold (blue line) is met by a yawn.
This is obviously very bullish. Imagine if all stock markets made new highs. It would be all over the media.
So what this is telling us is that this gold bull market, or currency bear market, has a very long way to go.
As I often point out, no fiat money but only gold has survived throughout history.
Gold’s rise over time is always guaranteed as governments and central banks will without fail destroy their currency by creating virtually unlimited fake money.
Since this has been going on for 1000s of years, history tells us that this trend of constantly debasing fiat money is unbreakable due to the greed and mismanagement of governments.
And now with the debt crisis accelerating, so will the gold price.
Luke Groman makes a very interesting point in his discussion with Grant Williams (grant-williams.com by subscription). Luke suggests that although the dollar will not yet die as a transactional currency, that it is likely to be replaced by gold as the reserve asset currency.
The combination of dedollarisation and liquidation of US treasuries by foreign holders will lead to this development.
Commodity countries will sell for example oil to China, receive yuan and change the yuan to gold on the Shanghai gold Exchange. They will then hold gold instead of dollars. This will avoid the dollar as a trading currency when it comes to commodities.
In order for gold to function as a reserve asset, it will need to be revalued with a zero at the end and a bigger figure at the beginning as Luke says. The whole idea would be that gold will become a neutral reserve asset which floats in all currencies.
The inverse triangle of Global debt resting on only $2 trillion of Central Bank gold shown above makes the revaluation of gold obvious.
A floating gold price as a reserve asset is of course much more sensible than a fixed gold price backing the currencies and would be the nearest to Free Gold.
See my 2018 article, “Free Gold will kill the Paper Gold Casino”.
So the consequence of gold becoming a reserve asset could involve a rise of say 25X or 50X the current level. Certainly not an improbable outcome in today’s money. The debasement of the dollar and other Western currencies is likely to have a similar effect but then we are not talking in today’s money. Time will tell.
As gold is now in an acceleration phase, we are likely to see much higher levels however long it takes and whatever the reason is for the rise.
The 1980 gold price of $850, adjusted for real inflation would today be $28,300
As gold is now in an acceleration phase, we are likely to see much higher levels however long it takes.
What is clear is that fiat money, bonds, property and stocks will all decline precipitously against gold.
What is important for investors is to take protection now against the most significant RESET in history which is a disorderly reset.
So if you don’t hold gold yet, please, please protect your family, and your wealth by acquiring physical gold.
Gold repositioning as a Global Reserve Asset could happen gradually or it could happen suddenly. But please be prepared because when it happens you don’t want to hold worthless paper money or assets.
end
A MUST READ..
FDIC Seizure of Foreign Deposits at SVB Opens Pandora’s Box at JPMorgan Chase and Citi – Which Hold a Combined $1 Trillion in Foreign Deposits with No FDIC Insurance
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: May 15, 2023 ~
Federal Reserve Building, Washington, D.C. If you have been following the banking crisis, you have likely read at least a dozen times that on March 12 federal banking regulators, with the consent of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, invoked the “systemic risk exception” in order to protect both insured and uninsured depositors at the two banks that failed in March – Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
That’s why there were gasps of shock on Saturday evening at around 5:30 p.m. when the Wall Street Journal (paywall) published the stunning news that depositors in the Cayman Islands’ branch of Silicon Valley Bank had their deposits seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which they are unlikely to ever see again. (Harvey: remember that all depositors save foreign depositors are being made whole)
As Wall Street On Parade has previously reported, under statute, the FDIC cannot insure deposits held on foreign soil by U.S. banks. What it can do, however, is to sell those deposits to the bank that acquires the collapsed bank. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, the acquiring bank was First Citizens Bancshares which, apparently, declined to purchase the foreign deposits in the secrecy jurisdiction of the Cayman Islands, a jurisdiction most notable recently for housing Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto house of frauds.
The Journal reported that as of December 31, 2022, Silicon Valley Bank held $13.9 billion in foreign deposits with an unknown amount remaining as of the date of its failure and FDIC receivership on March 10. The Journal also reported that “On March 31, the FDIC notified SVB’s Cayman Islands depositors that they wouldn’t be covered by its deposit insurance, and that they would be treated as ‘general unsecured creditors,’ according to documents reviewed by the Journal as well as interviews with employees of multiple firms.”
Adding to what is certain to be political fallout, the depositors left out in the cold in the Cayman Islands branch included “investment firms in China and other parts of Asia.” Those depositors can’t be too happy to see their deposits seized while everyone else gets protected, whether they had deposit insurance or not.
What the Wall Street Journal has actually done with this report is to open a Pandora’s box regarding the vast sums of foreign deposits held in foreign branches of JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup’s Citibank – none of which are covered by FDIC insurance. It further raises the question as to why the banking regulators of these two Wall Street mega banks have allowed this dangerous situation to occur.
According to the year-end call report filed by Citibank, it held a stunning $622.6 billion of deposits in foreign offices. (See page 34 of call report.) According to the year-end call report filed by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., it held $426 billion in deposits in foreign offices. (See page 34 of the linked report.) Together, these two banks held just over $1 trillion in deposits on foreign soil – which had no U.S. deposit insurance backing.
As for whether the foreign jurisdiction’s deposit insurance scheme would apply to the foreign branch deposits of U.S. banks, the FDIC offers this two-sentence explanation in a recent report: “Deposits in foreign offices of U.S. banks are not insured by the FDIC. Some jurisdictions may provide some deposit insurance coverage of these deposits; the amounts of coverage, if any, vary by jurisdiction.”
In most cases, foreign countries’ deposit insurance schemes offer far lower deposit protection than the $250,000 per depositor, per bank, offered in the U.S.
JPMorgan Chase and Citibank also have exposure to uninsured domestic deposits – that is, deposits exceeding $250,000 per depositor in their bank branches on U.S. soil. At year end, JPMorgan Chase held $1.058 trillion in uninsured deposits in domestic branches while Citibank held $598.2 billion in uninsured deposits in domestic branches. Combining domestic and foreign uninsured deposits versus the $1.4 trillion Citibank held in total deposits at year end, means that 87 percent of Citibank’s deposit base lacked FDIC insurance protection. That is very close to the 90 percent of uninsured deposits held by Signature Bank when it blew up on March 12 and went into FDIC receivership.
Given Citibank’s history of teetering on the brink and being rescued by exorbitant sums from its financial “supervisors” during and after the financial crash of 2008, it is nothing short of an outrage to U.S. taxpayers that its banking regulators today have allowed 87 percent of its deposits to lack FDIC insurance protection. From December 2007 through mid 2010, Citigroup/Citibank received the following bailouts: the U.S. Treasury injected $45 billion of capital; there was a government guarantee of over $300 billion on certain of its assets; the FDIC provided a guarantee of $5.75 billion on its senior unsecured debt and $26 billion on its commercial paper and interbank deposits; and secret revolving loans from the Federal Reserve sluiced a cumulative $2.5 trillion in below-market-rate loans to Citigroup according to the eventual audit performed by the Government Accountability Office.
The FDIC’s recent report on the banking failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and the options for Congress to consider in reforming the federal deposit insurance program, concedes that uninsured deposits play a pivotal role in bank runs and the ensuing failure of banks, writing as follows:
“Abstracting from the specifics of the events of March 2023, several developments suggest that the banking system has evolved in ways that could increase its exposure to deposit runs. These developments include the amplification of concerns through social media and the speed of some depositor responses, the interaction of failure- resolution events and depositor behavior, and the increased volume and proportion of uninsured deposits in the banking system.
“The risk of depositor runs is inherent in banking, where long-term assets are funded by short-term deposit liabilities. The FDIC was established largely in response to the widespread bank runs of the 1930s. Depositors who are unprotected by deposit insurance may consider moving their funds if they are concerned about the liquidity or solvency of their bank. If uninsured depositors believe that other depositors share their concerns and that a run on the bank and potential failure is imminent, then they may act quickly to withdraw their funds. Synchronous deposit withdrawals may then force the liquidation of assets and cause the failure of the bank. A bank failure caused by a run can be a self- fulfilling prophecy.”
end
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
The USA adds on average 128 billion dollars per month or 4.2 billion dollars per day. On the 10th of the month they had 88 billion dollars left or 20 days of money. They will officially run out by the 30 th of May.
(Bloomberg/GATA)
U.S. Treasury has just $88 billion of measures left to avoid debt cap
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-05-12 23:34Section: Daily Dispatches
By Benjamin Purvis and Michael Mackenzie
Bloomberg News
Friday, May 12, 2023
The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement today that it had just $88 billion of extraordinary measures to help keep the government’s bills paid as of May 10.
That’s down from around $110 billion a week earlier and means that just over a quarter of the $333 billion of authorized measures are still available to keep the U.S. government from running out of borrowing room under the statutory debt limit.
The measures are a collection of various accounting gimmicks that enable the administration to keep selling debt even though it has run up against the $31.4 trillion borrowing ceiling imposed by Congress. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
For your interest…
Gold jumps above stocks as Americans’ preferred long-term investment while real estate plunges
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-05-13 09:00Section: Daily Dispatches
By Filip De Mott
Insider, New York
Friday, May 12, 2023
American investment preferences have shifted in response to ongoing economic insecurities, according to a new Gallup poll.
When asked what is the best long-term investment, a plurality of respondents still said real estate, but the share sank to 34% this year from 45% last year.
The drop brings the preference for real estate more in line with the average from 2016 to 2020, after soaring in the pandemic boom. It also highlights the downturn in housing markets, as high mortgage rates have induced price slumps and reduced investor confidence.
Meanwhile, gold surged to second place, with the share who view it as the best long-term investment jumping to 26% this year from 15% in 2022. The share favoring stocks fell to 18% from 24%, marking the first time in 10 years that gold topped stocks. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Newcrest now endorses Newmont’s raised offer
(Reuters/GATA)
Australian gold miner Newcrest endorses Newmont’s raised offer
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-05-14 20:14Section: Daily Dispatches
By Scott Murdoch and Melanie Burton
Reuters
Sunday, May 14, 2023
Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining said it would back Newmont Corp’s A$26.2 billion ($17.8 billion) takeover offer in one of the world’s largest buyouts so far this year.
The deal, subject to approval from shareholders of both companies and other regulatory hurdles, would lift Newmont’s gold output to nearly double its nearest rival, Barrick Gold Corp., and catapult the miner past Freeport McMoRan to become the largest U.S. gold and copper producer by market capitalisation.
Newcrest shareholders would receive 0.400 Newmont share for each share held, with an implied value of A$29.27 a share, higher than a previous exchange ratio of 0.380 that Newcrest’s board rejected in February. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
Is this redeemable for gold? At least they are trying!
(zerohedge)
Despite IMF Rebuke, Zimbabwe Sells $14 Million Gold-Backed Digital Tokens In First Issue
SUNDAY, MAY 14, 2023 – 09:55 AM
Two weeks ago we described Zimbabwe’s latest effort to stabilize the local currency from continued depreciation against the U.S. dollar – The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe introduced a gold-backed digital currency to serve as legal tender in the country.
By way of background, Zimbabwe has been fighting against currency volatility and inflation for over a decade.
In 2009, the country adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency after an episode of hyperinflation.
In 2019, the Zimbabwean dollar was reintroduced in an effort to revive the country’s struggling economy.
Last year, the government decided to use the U.S. dollar again in a bid to curb surging prices in the country.
And now, The central bank’s latest plan will allow small amounts of Zimbabwean dollars to be exchanged for the digital gold token, enabling more Zimbabweans to hedge against currency volatility.
Of course, this greatly annoyed The IMF (who may lose their debt-driven control over the country should this plan be successful):
A careful assessment should be conducted to ensure the benefits from this measure outweigh the costs and potential risks including, for instance, macroeconomic and financial stability risks, legal and operational risks, governance risks, cost of forgone FX reserves…
The Washington-based lender urged authorities in the southern African nation to rather use conventional measures to address economic challenges (i.e. borrow from us and bend the knee ‘economic hitman’-style).
Nevertheless, the central bank started selling digital tokens to investors on Monday for a minimum price of $10 for individuals and $5,000 for corporates and other entities, as part of efforts to reduce demand for US dollars that now supersede the local unit as the preferred currency for transactions.
And now the results are in.
Zimbabwe used nearly 140 kilograms of gold reserves to back the first sale of its digital money.
The central bank received 135 applications valued at 14 billion Zimbabwe dollar ($12 million) to purchase the gold-backed digital tokens, it said in an emailed statement on Friday. It plans a second auction on May 18.
It appears the market is testing out the process before committing to converting significant Zim$ reserves into gold tokens, But still, it was a respectable first week.
Finally, as we noted previously, crypto adoption has grown in many African countries as a result of economic challenges.
According to Chainalysis, the Middle East and North Africa is the fastest-growing region for crypto adoption thanks to cross-border remittances, with over $566 billion in crypto transactions between July 2021 and June 2022, up 48% from the previous year.
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: PLATINUM
Platinum Market “Entering Substantial Deficit This Year”
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 09:30 AM
The global shortage of platinum is set to worsen in the coming quarters, resulting in one of the most significant deficits in half a century, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said in a quarterly report on Monday. This should continue to support spot prices of the metal.
Rolling power blackouts in South Africa, a country responsible for mining approximately 70% of the world’s supply, disrupt production. It comes as demand remains robust and will outstrip supply by 983,000 ounces in 2023. This means the shortfall will be the largest since the 1970s — and compares with a deficit forecast of 556,000 ounces made by WPIC in March.
The forecast deficit for 2023 (-983 koz) is 77% deeper than projected in the Q4’22 Platinum Quarterly in March 2023, and reflects a 1% decline in total supply and a 28% increase in demand versus 2022.
Besides South Africa, WPIC said Western sanctions against Russia have also contributed to sliding global supplies.
“This reflects the attractive investment outlook of a market entering a substantial deficit this year, with deficits likely to be sustained for several years unless there is a substantial increase in supply or significant demand destruction, both seeming unlikely. It is quite possible that this interest in platinum investment could spread to other geographies as well, and of course, the more broad-based the investment thesis is acted upon, the more self-fulfilling the result,” said Trevor Raymond, WPIC chief executive.
In April, we pointed out global platinum production was at risk as investors were plowing money into platinum exchange-traded funds.
“The trend over the last few years in South Africa has been to buy the equities over the metal.
“Now with the challenges facing the companies in terms of inflation and Eskom the funds there are preferring the metal itself,” Ed Sterck, director of research at WPIC, told Bloomberg.
The surge in exchange-traded platinum funds led platinum prices to a more than 20% rally between mid-February into late April from $907 per announce to $1,127. Prices have since struggled to break above $1,100.
Meanwhile, WPIC said industrial demand is expected to surge 17% year-on-year to an unprecedented level, primarily fueled by glass and chemical-making capacity in China.
END
A MUST VIEW:
ALERT! SILVER COT Data Shows the Top 3 Large Shorts RUNNING for the Hills! What Do They KNOW?!(Bix Weir)
As seen in the COMEX Commitment of Traders Report on Silver Positioning it’s obvious that the 3 LARGEST controllers of silver price manipulation are RUNNING FOR THE HILLS!
YES, this time it really is different!
ALERT! Silver COT Data Shows the Top 3 Large Shorts RUNNING for the Hills! What Do They KNOW?!(Bix Weir)
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.9508
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9609
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 38.38 PTS OR 1.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 343,89 PTS OR 1.75%
2. Nikkei closed UP 238.04 PTS OR 0.81%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.34 EURO RISES TO 1.0878 UP 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.407 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 136.08 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2940***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.171*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.359…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.957
3j Gold at $2014.00 silver at: 23.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 56 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.88//
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.08 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .407% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8963 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9749 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.483 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.803 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.0041 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.66…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 3.817 UP 4 BASIS PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise Amid Debt Ceiling Optimism
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 08:06 AM
US equity futures rose to start the week as investors monitored a subtle optimistic shift in debt-ceiling talks. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.4% at 7:30 a.m. ET, following similar increases in the Estoxx50 over the early London session. A subdued market reaction to the US fiscal standoff suggests that investors expect politicians to negotiate a solution after President Joe Biden voiced optimism over the weekend that a deal could be reached. Still, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the the world’s biggest economy risks a catastrophic default as soon as June 1 if the debt limit isn’t suspended or raised. Treasury yields ticked higher while the Bloomberg dollar index dropped to session lows; oil prices are flat, doing little to rebound from the past four weeks of losses. Gold is edging higher this morning, while iron ore and copper also gain.
In premarket trading, Meta shares rose 1.1% as Loop Capital upgraded the social media giant’s stock to buy from hold saying that the company’s revenue picture looks increasingly positive. Meanwhile, Alphabet fell 0.9% as Loop cut the tech giant’s stock to hold from buy, saying concerns surrounding the company’s ability to maintain its dominant position through the ongoing artificial intelligence transformation will weigh on its valuation. Analyst Rob Sanderson says “consider search competition from Microsoft a lesser threat than risk of displacement from behavioral change as users interact more with AI assistants to find information.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Oneok shares drop 5.8% in US premarket trading as analysts say the US pipeline operator’s $18.8 billion deal to buy Magellan Midstream Partners was a surprise given their different focus areas, with Magellan more exposed to crude and refined products while Oneok transports natural gas.
- NeoGames shares more than doubled after Aristocrat Leisure announced the proposed acquisition of the iLottery and iGaming solutions and services company for $29.50 a share in cash.
- Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose as Bitcoin gained for a third consecutive session, its longest streak since late April.
- Eli Lilly & Co.’s price target was raisedatMorgan Stanley to a Wall Street high of $507 from $478 per share, as analysts took stock of the recent positive clinical data for its experimental Alzheimer’s drug.
After a quiet weekend on the news front, attention remained glued to debt ceiling negotiations, especially since there are now just two weeks until the earliest possible X-date. “It could be argued that the risks appear somewhat overstated, given how regularly we’ve seen this scenario play out over the last few years,” said Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Nonetheless, the uncertainty being generated by events in Washington is prompting a more defensive bias.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders are planning to hold further talks on Tuesday. They were previously scheduled to meet on Friday, but postponed it as staff level discussions continued throughout the weekend. “When you look from afar in Europe at American politics right now it is difficult to see how they get to common ground, but the alternative is so bad maybe it forces that ground to be found,” said Luke Hickmore, investment director at Abrdn. “The risks are still there for sure.”
The showdown in Washington is just one of many risks keeping investors sidelined, from recession to cracks in the banking system to disappointed hopes for a turn to easier monetary policy. The S&P 500’s decline of 0.3% last week marked the sixth straight week without a 1% move — the longest stretch of inertia since late 2019.
“There’s quite a fair bit of ongoing risk in the market,” Audrey Goh, senior cross asset strategist at Standard Chartered Wealth Management Group, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “The debt-ceiling talks are still in the making, at the same time we’ve also got inflation still quite elevated. There could be further downside from here where equity markets are concerned.”
The VIX held near the lowest since 2021, even as Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said he expects the debate around raising the US government’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit to trigger some sharp swings in equity markets.
European stocks rose tracking US equity futures: the Stoxx 600 is up 0.3% with miners, consumer products and utilities the strongest performing sectors. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Evotec gains as much as 6.4%, the most on the Stoxx 600 and the benchmark’s health-care subindex. Citi says today’s numbers “provides comfort” and last week’s Sandoz deal adds “significant credibility”
- Alstom shares rise as much as 4.8% as JPMorgan raises its PT on the French train maker, saying its “significantly positive” free cash flow forecast helps to ease balance sheet concerns
- Axa rises as much as 3.2%, with analysts saying the insurer’s quarter results are encouraging, with strong pricing in Property & Casualty premiums and a positive surprise in its capital guidance
- Siemens Energy rises as much as 3.6%, outperforming the wider Stoxx Energy Index, with Citi saying today’s results to be taken positively, highlighting a 20% beat on orders and a 10% beat on revenue
- Diploma rises as much as 2.9% after the UK components and seals distributor’s 1H results topped expectations, with good organic growth, a beat on margins and a strong outlook, analysts said
- Currys shares rise as much as 7.6% after the UK electronics-and-appliances retailer raised its profit forecast for the year. Analysts noted the better-than-expected sales performance in the UK
- Bayer declines as much as 2.6%, extending losses to a fourth consecutive session, after Berenberg says Germany-based pharmaceutical and agrochemicals company may issue a profit warning in 2H
- Lotus Bakeries shares fall as much as 3% after KBC Securities cuts the Belgian food producer to hold from accumulate. The broker sees short-term upside as “too limited” after recent strength
- Asos shares drop as much as 12% after JPMorgan slashed its price target on the UK online fast fashion retailer, citing concerns about the medium-term outlook and a lack of visibility
- AFRY shares drop as much as 3.4% after the Swedish engineering consultancy firm loses its clean sweep of positive ratings following a downgrade to hold from buy by Nordea
In other markets, the Turkish lira weakened as the country’s presidential election looked set for a runoff vote in two weeks. Losses were cushioned by state banks that earlier intervened to support the exchange rate, according to people familiar with the matter. The Thai baht rallied after pro-democracy parties emerged as the biggest winners in Sunday’s election.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities gained, with a late rally in Chinese stocks putting the regional benchmark on track for its first advance in five days. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7%, led by financials and communication services shares. Thailand’s benchmark was the worst performer in Asia following elections on Sunday, owing to uncertainty over talks between opposition parties to form a coalition government. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index jumped the most since Feb. 20. Financials rallied following a state media reported that the Shanghai stock exchange will host a seminar to discuss topics including boosting the sector’s valuation. Gauges in Hong Kong also climbed, with Tencent being a key contributor ahead of its earnings scheduled for Wednesday. Market watchers will be keenly watching the latest China figures on industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment Tuesday to gauge the momentum of the nation’s economic recovery.
Focus will also be on US debt-ceiling talks as President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders plan to meet to discuss budget negotiations to avoid a default.
In Japan, the key Topix gauge inched closer to reaching its highest level since 1990, with the nation’s biggest banks predicting their highest profits in years. Goldman Sachs is predicting more upside for Japanese stocks, which extended their recent outperformance versus global peers amid strong earnings and renewed weakness in the yen. “We note the solid fundamentals compared with stocks on overseas markets, and we also think that expectations for structural changes/reforms could push Japanese equities up even further,” Goldman strategists Kazunori Tatebe and Bruce Kirk wrote in a note.
Indian stocks advanced to trade near their all-time highs as falling wholesale prices helped makers of consumer goods amid hopes of a recovery in demand. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 62,345.71 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar measures. Both are less than 2% away from their record levels set in early December. They have increased about 8% since March. The stock market reacted after data showed India’s wholesale prices contracted for the first time in almost three years, tracking softening global commodity prices. Companies, especially consumer goods and staples firms, which have struggled to report volume growth on weak demand, could find support. The broader market gains also countered worries over ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s election defeat in southern Karnataka state, where opposition Congress party secured a majority last week. “While the election results may introduce some ‘political risk’ to markets and rejuvenate the opposition, we note that Mr Modi enjoys very high approval rating on the national level,” Kotak Institutional Equities analysts led by Sajeev Prasad wrote in a note, referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Shares of billionaire Gautam Adani’s group declined amid concerns over potential equity dilution after boards of two firms approved proposals to raise as much as $2.6 billion
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. The Australian dollar is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.5% against the greenback. The Japanese yen is the weakest while the Turkish lira has also dropped as the presidential election appears to be heading for a runoff vote.
In rates, treasuries fall with the US 10-year yield rising 2bps to 3.48%. Bunds are also in the red with German 10-year borrowing costs rising 3bps to 2.31%. Italian 10-year yields have dropped 1bps after Fitch affirmed their BBB rating on Friday. Treasuries were cheaper across the curve, following wider losses in bunds, amid contained risk-on sentiment. Treasury yields are cheaper by 1bp to 2bps across the curve with 10-year yields around 3.48%, trading ~0.5bp richer vs. bunds. IG issuance slate includes five deals already with a weekly total of around $30b expected — the majority of issuance is expected to be front loaded, according to dealers. US auctions this week include $15b 20-year bond sale Wednesday and 10-year TIPS Thursday
In commodities, Crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.4% to trade near $70.30. Spot gold adds 0.3% to around $2,017. Bitcoin rises 1.6%.
Finally, after a tumultuous week at one of the largest crypto exchanges which had temporarily paused withdrawals mid-week, Bitcoin fell back -10.5% on the week (and -5.18% on Friday itself). Ethereum likewise fell back -3.82% on Friday to bring the weekly loss to -10.16% as the impact of its major Shapella update continues to be felt.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,155.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 466.75
- MXAP up 0.6% to 161.75
- MXAPJ up 0.7% to 513.95
- Nikkei up 0.8% to 29,626.34
- Topix up 0.9% to 2,114.85
- Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 19,971.13
- Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,310.74
- Sensex up 0.8% to 62,497.75
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,267.13
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,479.35
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0875
- Brent Futures up 0.3% to $74.38/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,020.20
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.16% to 102.52
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China’s rate swaps program with Hong Kong began, giving overseas funds easier access to onshore derivatives. The long-anticipated Swap Connect comes after global investors cut holdings of Chinese sovereigns by $169 billion in the last five quarters. An advantage of the channel will be lower trading costs, Linklaters said, though analysts say it may not deter short-term outflows. BBG
- Sweden’s April inflation cools by more than anticipated, taking pressure off the central bank to continue hiking rates (core inflation came in at +8.4% Y/Y in April, down from +8.9% in March and below the Street’s +8.7% forecast). BBG
- Eurozone inflation and GDP to outperform prior expectations according to new European Commission forecasts (GDP is now seen +1.1% and +1.6% in ’23 and ’24, respectively, up from +0.9% and +1.5% previously; inflation is now seen +5.8% and +2.8% in ’23 and ’24, respectively, up from +5.6% and +2.5% previously). WSJ
- Debt ceiling talks are making modest progress, and issues on the table have “narrowed” in the last few days (a final deal is unlikely to happen before Biden’s trip to the G7 in Japan, but could be in place when he gets back). FT
- Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June, its oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said, in the first indication from an OPEC minister about a potential decision as oil prices slide. RTRS
- Supermarket chains are increasingly pushing back against aggressive price increases from consumer staples companies, a trend that will help consumer spending power but could jeopardize margin expansion and earnings projections at some firms. FT
- M&A Monday. Newmont sealed its $19.2 billion acquisition of Newcrest in the gold mining industry’s largest transaction. Oneok will buy Magellan Midstream for $18.8 billion in cash and stock to create one of the biggest US oil and gas pipeline operators. And Microsoft’s $69 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard is expected to win EU approval today, which may provide fodder for its legal challenge of the UK’s decision to block the deal. BBG
- Stocks are preparing for an upside breakout, and its time investors started preparing – US disinflation and the end of Fed tightening will be powerful tailwinds for equities. Barron’s
- Quant hedge funds are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in the last 10 years while human traders and PM sit on the sidelines due to macro worries. FT
- Institutions have pulled a net $333.9 billion from stocks over the past 12 months, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, while individual investors have yanked another $28 billion. Billions have flowed into cash equivalents, driving total assets in money markets to a record $5.3 trillion as of May 10, according to the Investment Company Institute. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued performance last Friday on Wall St where risk sentiment was hampered by a disappointing University of Michigan Survey and US debt ceiling concerns, while participants in the region brace for this week’s key economic releases including the latest Chinese activity data due tomorrow. ASX 200 was rangebound amid losses in the top-weighted financial sector and weakness in tech although the downside in the index was cushioned by resilience in mining stocks and several M&A-related headlines. Nikkei 225 outperformed with many of the biggest gainers in the index driven by earnings results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong choppy and the mainland pressured after reports that G7 Leaders will discuss shared principles on China’s economic coercion and with the US to look at how outbound investment assessment can complement export controls to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to China.
Top Asian News
- PBoC Monetary Policy Implementation Report (Q1): Inflation may rebound gradually in H2 2023. Prudent monetary policy will be precise and forceful; will keep policy reasonably ample. Click here for more detail.
- PBoC says should not exaggerate temporary fall in CPI; GDP growth-inflation gap is due to delays in demand.
- US official said the G7 Leaders’ statement is to discuss shared principles on China’s economic coercion and the US will look at how outbound investment assessment can complement export controls to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to China, while the statement will also discuss tools used to counter economic security threats including those posed by China, according to Reuters.
- China jailed US citizen John Shing-Wan Leung for life on espionage charges, according to AFP.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he told G7 counterparts that Japan’s economy is picking up and its core CPI is likely to slow the pace of increase towards the middle of the current fiscal year, while he said the BoJ is continuing with easy monetary policy to sustainably and stably achieve the price target, according to Reuters.
- Japanese PM Kishida is to order the government and BoJ to assess the wage outlook to determine if recent wage hikes would be sustainable, according to Nikkei.
- Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition took an early lead in polling results in which the Pheu Thai party had about 23% of votes and was closely followed by the Move Forward party with about 22.5% of votes in what was seen as a rebuke against the military-aligned government with the United Thai Nation party and ruling Palang Pracharath party seen trailing at 8% and 10% of votes, respectively, according to FT. It was later reported that the Thailand Election Commission announced that with 99% of votes counted, Move Forward have 151 seats and Pheu Thai have 141 seats.
- Indian PM Modi’s BJP lost control of the state assembly in the crucial election in the southern state of Karnataka which was closely watched ahead of the national poll that takes place in under a year, according to FT.
European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, but with magnitudes modest amid limited specific newsflow. Sectors are predominantly in the green though Chemicals & Real Estate lag while for bourses the IBEX 35 -0.2% is the clear laggard given pressure in BBVA -4.6% after inconclusive Turkish election results. Stateside, futures are firmer with the ES +0.2% sitting just above the 4150 mark with Fed speak due today before the week’s US data/retail earnings and debt ceiling negotiations.
Top European News
- UK will begin trade talks with Switzerland in an effort to boost services trade, according to Bloomberg.
- Bank of England is to water down rules for lenders to boost competitiveness, according to The Telegraph.
- ECB’s de Guindos said rate hikes are in their final stretch and warned that higher borrowing costs could put stress on banks’ asset quality and push up bad debt levels, according to Il Sole 24 Ore.
- ECB’s Kazimir said they may need to keep raising rates longer than previously thought to help tame inflationary pressures and he thinks there are more meetings ahead where they will decide on hiking rates.
- EU Commission increases 2023/24 EZ Inflation and GDP forecasts; click here for more detail.
- Italy is to overhaul plan for EUR 200bln in EU Covid recovery funds, according to FT
- Fitch affirmed Italy at BBB; Outlook Stable, affirmed Sweden at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Denmark at AAA; Outlook Stable.
FX
- DXY drifts after running into resistance just above a Fib, at 102.750 and then losing this upside to sub-102.50 with peers broadly firmer.
- Aussie regroups as risk appetite recovers, base metals bounce and NAB delivers hawkish RBA call, AUD/USD eyes 0.6700 from just shy of 0.6650.
- Yen retreats between 135.61-136.32 parameters as BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirms the need to keep an ultra-accommodative stance at the G7.
- Euro and Sterling rangy vs Dollar within 1.0846-80 and 1.2446-98 respective bands after more weak Eurozone data and ahead of a BoE speech.
- Swedish Crown underperforms after sub-forecast inflation metrics and Turkish Lira in limbo after inconclusive first-round election result leaves current President Erdogan in contention to prevail.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9654 vs exp. 6.9658 (prev. 6.9481)
Fixed Income
- Debt is off worst levels, but still under pressure after extending intraday boundaries on both sides.
- Bunds, Gilts and T-note within 136.06-135.61, 100.82-43 and 115-15/08+ respective ranges.
- Hawkish Central Bank vibes overshadow weak data awaiting Empire State survey, NY Fed credit and debit report, Fed speakers and BoE’s Pill.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are modestly firmer having pared back initial APAC downside given the session’s relatively-flimsy risk tone.
- Currently, the benchmarks are towards the top end of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters with WTI and Brent topping out at USD 70.42/bbl and USD 74/51/bbl respectively.
- G7 and the EU will reportedly agree to ban the restart of Russian gas pipelines, according to FT; on this, desks write that it can be seen as more of a symbolic move as it won’t change flows.
- Gazprom continued shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine with the volume on Saturday seen at 40.4mln cubic metres and the volume on Sunday seen at 40.3mln cubic metres, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold edges higher and eyes its 10 DMA (USD 2,025.34/oz) after briefly dipping under its 21 DMA overnight at USD 2,008.06/oz, but remains within Friday’s parameters thus far, while base metals are bid after last week’s pressure.
Turkish Election
- Turkish President Erdogan’s share of votes is below the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round of the Presidential Election with 49.2% although he was still ahead of main opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu who has 45.0% of the votes after 99% of votes were counted. It was also reported that Erdogan’s AK Party received the most votes in the parliamentary election with over 35% of votes after more than 92% of votes were counted.
- Turkish President Erdogan said the preliminary results show his side is far ahead and both domestic and abroad vote counts will continue, while he added that the opposition are trying to fool people by saying they are ahead, while he added that if there is a run-off, he will respect that.
- Turkish presidential candidate Kilicdaroglu said President Erdogan did not get the result he wanted. Furthermore, Kilicdaroglu said he will accept a run-off and thinks he will win in the run-off, while the third Turkish Presidential candidate said he is not closer to supporting either side in the presidential run-off vote.
Geopolitics
- Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Rome on Saturday to meet with Italian President Mattarella, Italian PM Meloni and the Pope where Matterella told Zelensky that Italy is by his side and Meloni said that they will support Ukraine for the entire time that it is necessary. Zelensky also visited Germany and met with Chancellor Scholz who said that Germany will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and ensured that aid to Ukraine will continue in the coming years, while Scholz gave Germany’s full support to Ukraine’s journey towards membership in the European Union. Furthermore, Germany announced to provide a new EUR 2.7bln military aid package to Ukraine and President Zelensky then travelled to France for talks with French President Macron.
- France is to send dozens of armoured vehicles and light tanks including AMX-10RC armoured fighting vehicles to Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they are ready to discuss proposals for peace but must be based on Ukraine’s peace plan and noted that Ukrainians believe in the success of the coming counteroffensive, while he also stated that they can make the defeat of Russia inevitable this year, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine said its troops are gradually advancing in two directions in the suburbs of Bakhmut and that the situation in the city centre is more complicated, while Russia said Ukraine made mass attempts to break through its defences in north and south Bakhmut which were repelled and that Russian forces conducted long-range strikes on the city Ternopil which targeted Ukrainian deployment site and depots, according to Reuters, RIA and Interfax.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly proposed in private to conduct attacks on Russian territory and possibly invade border cities to be in a better position to negotiate peace, according to US documents leaked online cited by Washington Post. However, Zelensky told reporters on Sunday that Ukraine had no plans to attack Russian territory and was only interested in regaining occupied land.
- Ukrainian official said the Chinese envoy is to visit Kiev on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Russian Kremlin says President Putin will hold a meeting of the security council on Monday, the meeting has been moved from the usual Friday slot.
- G7 leaders plan to increase pressure on Russia with steps on sanctions evasion, energy production and exports aiding war efforts, while Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to address G7 leaders virtually or in person, according to officials cited by Reuters.
- UK Chancellor Hunt said the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has not been as effective as military support for Ukraine and that economic pressure on Russia is more of a ‘slow burn’ with the pressure to eventually bite, while he noted that G7 members talked about the need to stop the sanctions leakage, according to Reuters.
- Egypt brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinians on Saturday. However, it was reported the following day that Israel conducted an air strike on a militant post in Gaza after a rocket was fired at Israel due to a “technical error”, according to Hamas Aqsa Radio.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: May Empire Manufacturing, est. -4.0, prior 10.8
- 16:00: March Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $71b
Central Banks
- 07:30: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on CNBC
- 08:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
- 08:45: Fed’s Bostic Has Opening Remarks at Financial Markets…
- 09:15: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in a Moderated Discussion
- 14:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Bloomberg TV
- 15:00: Fed’s Bostic Holds Media Availability
- 17:00: Fed’s Cook Gives Commencement Address at UC Berkeley
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As a British person and someone who has proudly worked at a German bank for nearly 19 years, I have to confess that I threw my sofa pillow across the room in disgust at just after midnight on Saturday. Yes the UK and Germany were the bottom two acts in the Eurovision Song Contest. How can two countries that combined have given the world The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Elton John, David Bowie, Led Zepplin, Pink Floyd, oh and Nena scores so badly. It’s an outrage. At least both got more than “Nul Points”. Anyone who watched will know why the UK didn’t do well. They had to follow Croatia who were one of the most extraordinary acts I have seen for many a year. I was in a state of shock after.
I’ve just about recovered but fortunately the week ahead doesn’t have a whole calendar filled with big likely events. There are no blockbuster US data releases, but US retail sales (tomorrow) and a selection of US housing data will be the highlights. Elsewhere we see the monthly China economic activity data dump (tomorrow), GDP and CPI reports from Japan (Wednesday and Friday), along with labour market reports in the UK (tomorrow). In addition, there are a lot of central bank speakers, especially from the Fed. Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde both speak on Friday with the latter also up tomorrow.
Elsewhere the latest G7 summit starts on Friday in Hiroshima and earnings season still lingers with notable companies reporting being US retailers Walmart and Home Depot, along with China’s tech giants Alibaba and Tencent.
In more detail now let’s start with US retail sales tomorrow. Our economists expect the headline to print at +0.7% in April, up from -0.6% previously, or +0.5% vs -0.4% ex autos. Headline will likely be boosted by strong auto sales in the month. The gain in ex-autos sales is likely to be gas price related and our economists expect a flat reading on retail control (unch. vs. -0.3%), which is the direct input into GDP for goods spending. So consumption is likely grinding lower after a strong start to the year. Investors will get a read on the US consumer from US retailers which report earnings, including Walmart (Thursday), Target (Wednesday) and Home Depot (tomorrow).
Tomorrow’s NAHB housing market index (DB at 44 vs. 46) starts the week for US housing data and will be followed by Wednesday’s housing starts and permits and then Thursday’s existing home sales.
Thursday’s jobless claims will be more important than usual for a couple of reasons. Firstly it is the survey week for the next payrolls release and secondly we saw it confirmed on Friday that a decent slug of the recent rise in claims were likely due to fraudulent filings in Massachusetts. This state seems to have accounted for around half the +23% rise in the 4-week moving average claims number from the late January lows. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims is up around 10% this year so the labour market is easing but not quite as much as the raw claims numbers had suggested. Read more about this story here in our economists’ debrief of this story.
Here in Europe, the UK labour market data tomorrow will be interesting following last week’s twelfth consecutive BoE meeting hike. Whether the data shows persistent wage pressures, following the last hot print, will likely contribute to whether a pause is feasible at the next meeting on June 22, although another round of wages and inflation data will be due by then as well. The house view is that they will hike another 25bps in June which will be the last for the cycle but with the risks that there’ll be more. See here for more on why as they review last week’s hike.
Elsewhere in Europe, key indicators include the ZEW survey (tomorrow) and the PPI report (Friday) for Germany and Q1 GDP, trade balance for March (tomorrow) and industrial production (today) for the Eurozone.
This week will also be a busy one for the major Asian economies. Starting with Japan, Q1 GDP will be released on Wednesday, trade balance data on Thursday, and the CPI report on Friday.
In China, investors will be focused on the latest economic activity signals tomorrow, with the release of retail sales, industrial production and property investment data. Amid base effects, our economists expect +11% and +21% YoY growth in industrial production and retail sales, respectively (vs 3.9% and 10.6% in March). The industrial production print and its contrast with retail sales will be especially in focus given flailing momentum in the former. New home prices data are due on Wednesday.
China will also be in the spotlight for corporate earnings this week. Its tech giants, including Alibaba (Thursday), Tencent (Wednesday) and Baidu (Tuesday) will be among the most anticipated reports. The full day-by-day week ahead in at the end as usual.
This morning in Asia, equity markets are mostly softer following weak US markets on Friday due to concerns over the US debt ceiling and disappointing economic data. As I check my screens, the Shanghai Composite (-0.94%), the CSI (-0.30%) and the KOSPI (-0.34%) are lower while the Nikkei (+0.40%) and Hang Seng (+0.24%) are slightly higher. US stock futures are pretty flat with those on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.03%) marginally down.
Early this morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) offered to keep the rate on 125 billion yuan ($18 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.75% for a ninth month. The central bank’s operation added 25 billion yuan more than the amount maturing in May, to keep the economic recovery on track as credit growth slumped.
Now, looking back on last week. On Friday, we had the University of Michigan’s long-run inflation expectations come in with an upside surprise, rising to 3.2% from 3% (vs 2.9% expected), their highest since 2011. This number is often revised down so we’ll see if that 12-yr high stays. One-year inflation expectations likewise beat expectations at 4.5% (vs 4.4% expected) but had receded from 4.6% in April. Consumer sentiment also fell back 9%, falling from 63.5 to 57.7 (vs 63 expected). Long-run expectations slipped from 60.5 to 53.4 (vs 60.8 expected) as consumers stated they were increasingly concerned that an economic downturn would not be short-lived.
After the inflation expectations number, fixed income sold off on both sides of the Atlantic. 10yr US Treasury yields climbed +7.8bps on Friday, to finishing slightly higher (+2.6bps) on the week. The more policy-sensitive 2yr yield rose +7.3bps week-on-week (and +8.8bps on Friday), approaching 4% again at 3.987%. In Europe, German bund yields finished the week slightly lower (-1.5bp) on a weekly basis despite the selloff on Friday (+5.1 bps).
With inflation concerns weighing on markets, the S&P 500 fell back -0.16% on Friday, and -0.29% week-on-week. The first back to back weekly declines since February. The NASDAQ relatively underperformed on Friday falling -0.36% but was up +0.40% in weekly terms after a rally mid-week. Whilst US stocks slipped, the STOXX 600 climbed +0.40% and was up by a modest +0.04% week-on-week.
In commodities, we closed off the fourth consecutive week of declines in oil as concerns over weak demand hang heavy following the US debt ceiling political standoff and Friday’s weak data. WTI crude fell back -1.82% to $70.04/bbl week-on-week (and -1.17% on Friday), Brent crude followed suit, falling -1.50% week-on-week to $74.17/bbl (and -1.08 % on Friday). Copper prices also fell -4.00% in weekly terms after soft Chinese import and export data earlier in the week, the largest down move since the first week of February.
Finally, after a tumultuous week at one of the largest crypto exchanges which had temporarily paused withdrawals mid-week, Bitcoin fell back -10.5% on the week (and -5.18% on Friday itself). Ethereum likewise fell back -3.82% on Friday to bring the weekly loss to -10.16% as the impact of its major Shapella update continues to be felt.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Equities pick up while DXY & debt drift; TRY softer after inconclusive elections – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 06:20 AM
- European bourses & US futures are firmer but with magnitudes modest amid limited specific newsflow
- DXY dips below 102.50 with its initial upside diminishing as peers are generally firmer ex-JPY while core debt drifts
- US President Biden said that debt ceiling talks are moving along and they will know more in the next couple of days about progress in discussions.
- SEK and TRY depreciate after soft inflation & inconclusive Turkish election results, with Erdogan in contention to prevail
- Crude steadies after paring overnight declines while base metals recoup from last week’s pressure with XAU near its 10-DMA
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Pill, ECB’s Nagel, Fed’s Bostic, Barkin & Cook, Supply via UK Syndication.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, but with magnitudes modest amid limited specific newsflow.
- Sectors are predominantly in the green though Chemicals & Real Estate lag while for bourses the IBEX 35 -0.2% is the clear laggard given pressure in BBVA -4.6% after inconclusive Turkish election results.
- Stateside, futures are firmer with the ES +0.2% sitting just above the 4150 mark with Fed speak due today before the week’s US data/retail earnings and debt ceiling negotiations.
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates, including:
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY drifts after running into resistance just above a Fib, at 102.750 and then losing this upside to sub-102.50 with peers broadly firmer.
- Aussie regroups as risk appetite recovers, base metals bounce and NAB delivers hawkish RBA call, AUD/USD eyes 0.6700 from just shy of 0.6650.
- Yen retreats between 135.61-136.32 parameters as BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirms the need to keep an ultra-accommodative stance at the G7.
- Euro and Sterling rangy vs Dollar within 1.0846-80 and 1.2446-98 respective bands after more weak Eurozone data and ahead of a BoE speech.
- Swedish Crown underperforms after sub-forecast inflation metrics and Turkish Lira in limbo after inconclusive first-round election result leaves current President Erdogan in contention to prevail.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9654 vs exp. 6.9658 (prev. 6.9481)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
- Debt is off worst levels, but still under pressure after extending intraday boundaries on both sides.
- Bunds, Gilts and T-note within 136.06-135.61, 100.82-43 and 115-15/08+ respective ranges.
- Hawkish Central Bank vibes overshadow weak data awaiting Empire State survey, NY Fed credit and debit report, Fed speakers and BoE’s Pill.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are modestly firmer having pared back initial APAC downside given the session’s relatively-flimsy risk tone.
- Currently, the benchmarks are towards the top end of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters with WTI and Brent topping out at USD 70.42/bbl and USD 74/51/bbl respectively.
- G7 and the EU will reportedly agree to ban the restart of Russian gas pipelines, according to FT; on this, desks write that it can be seen as more of a symbolic move as it won’t change flows.
- Gazprom continued shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine with the volume on Saturday seen at 40.4mln cubic metres and the volume on Sunday seen at 40.3mln cubic metres, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold edges higher and eyes its 10 DMA (USD 2,025.34/oz) after briefly dipping under its 21 DMA overnight at USD 2,008.06/oz, but remains within Friday’s parameters thus far, while base metals are bid after last week’s pressure.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK will begin trade talks with Switzerland in an effort to boost services trade, according to Bloomberg.
- Bank of England is to water down rules for lenders to boost competitiveness, according to The Telegraph.
- ECB’s de Guindos said rate hikes are in their final stretch and warned that higher borrowing costs could put stress on banks’ asset quality and push up bad debt levels, according to Il Sole 24 Ore.
- ECB’s Kazimir said they may need to keep raising rates longer than previously thought to help tame inflationary pressures and he thinks there are more meetings ahead where they will decide on hiking rates.
- EU Commission increases 2023/24 EZ Inflation and GDP forecasts; click here for more detail.
- Italy is to overhaul plan for EUR 200bln in EU Covid recovery funds, according to FT
- Fitch affirmed Italy at BBB; Outlook Stable, affirmed Sweden at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Denmark at AAA; Outlook Stable.
TURKISH ELECTION
- Turkish President Erdogan’s share of votes is below the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round of the Presidential Election with 49.2% although he was still ahead of main opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu who has 45.0% of the votes after 99% of votes were counted. It was also reported that Erdogan’s AK Party received the most votes in the parliamentary election with over 35% of votes after more than 92% of votes were counted.
- Turkish President Erdogan said the preliminary results show his side is far ahead and both domestic and abroad vote counts will continue, while he added that the opposition are trying to fool people by saying they are ahead, while he added that if there is a run-off, he will respect that.
- Turkish presidential candidate Kilicdaroglu said President Erdogan did not get the result he wanted. Furthermore, Kilicdaroglu said he will accept a run-off and thinks he will win in the run-off, while the third Turkish Presidential candidate said he is not closer to supporting either side in the presidential run-off vote.
DATA RECAP
- Swedish CPIF YY (Apr) 7.6% vs. Exp. 7.9% (Prev. 8.0%); MM (Apr) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
- Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Apr) 8.4% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.9%); MM (Apr) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%)
- German Wholesale Price Index YY (Apr) -0.5% (Prev. 2.0%); MM (Apr) -0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
- EU Industrial Production MM (Mar) -4.1% vs. Exp. -2.5% (Prev. 1.5%); YY (Mar) -1.4% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 2.0%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Jefferson (voter) said current inflation is still high and little progress on core inflation is bad news, as well as noted that the full impact of the Fed’s rapid rate hikes is likely still ahead and that Fed policy is on track for what is needed to lower inflation and achieve full employment. Furthermore, Jefferson said disinflation has been slower and more uneven than they would like, while he added that uncertainty around the effect of bank stress and credit shock could be larger than he expects, according to Reuters.
- Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) said market-based inflation expectations are back down to levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target and policy is now at the low end of sufficiently restrictive, while he also stated that sufficiently restrictive rates can move in response to incoming economic data, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden said on Saturday that debt ceiling talks are moving along and they will know more in the next couple of days about progress in debt ceiling talks, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo said the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations are constructive between all parties, according to CNN.
- White House and Republicans are starting to shape a possible debt ceiling deal with people familiar with the matter noting that the issues on the table had narrowed, although sources said any debt limit agreement is unlikely to be concluded before President Biden attends the G7 summit on May 19th-21st but could take place after that, according to FT.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the current banking environment and pressures on earnings of some US regional banks may lead to some concentration in the sector and regulators will likely be open to mergers among midsize banks.
- US regulators approved the sale of a majority stake in TIAA’s banking arm to a consortium of private equity firms on Friday, according to Reuters.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Rome on Saturday to meet with Italian President Mattarella, Italian PM Meloni and the Pope where Matterella told Zelensky that Italy is by his side and Meloni said that they will support Ukraine for the entire time that it is necessary. Zelensky also visited Germany and met with Chancellor Scholz who said that Germany will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and ensured that aid to Ukraine will continue in the coming years, while Scholz gave Germany’s full support to Ukraine’s journey towards membership in the European Union. Furthermore, Germany announced to provide a new EUR 2.7bln military aid package to Ukraine and President Zelensky then travelled to France for talks with French President Macron.
- France is to send dozens of armoured vehicles and light tanks including AMX-10RC armoured fighting vehicles to Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they are ready to discuss proposals for peace but must be based on Ukraine’s peace plan and noted that Ukrainians believe in the success of the coming counteroffensive, while he also stated that they can make the defeat of Russia inevitable this year, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine said its troops are gradually advancing in two directions in the suburbs of Bakhmut and that the situation in the city centre is more complicated, while Russia said Ukraine made mass attempts to break through its defences in north and south Bakhmut which were repelled and that Russian forces conducted long-range strikes on the city Ternopil which targeted Ukrainian deployment site and depots, according to Reuters, RIA and Interfax.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly proposed in private to conduct attacks on Russian territory and possibly invade border cities to be in a better position to negotiate peace, according to US documents leaked online cited by Washington Post. However, Zelensky told reporters on Sunday that Ukraine had no plans to attack Russian territory and was only interested in regaining occupied land.
- Ukrainian official said the Chinese envoy is to visit Kiev on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Russian Kremlin says President Putin will hold a meeting of the security council on Monday, the meeting has been moved from the usual Friday slot.
- G7 leaders plan to increase pressure on Russia with steps on sanctions evasion, energy production and exports aiding war efforts, while Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to address G7 leaders virtually or in person, according to officials cited by Reuters.
- UK Chancellor Hunt said the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has not been as effective as military support for Ukraine and that economic pressure on Russia is more of a ‘slow burn’ with the pressure to eventually bite, while he noted that G7 members talked about the need to stop the sanctions leakage, according to Reuters.
- Egypt brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinians on Saturday. However, it was reported the following day that Israel conducted an air strike on a militant post in Gaza after a rocket was fired at Israel due to a “technical error”, according to Hamas Aqsa Radio.
CRYPTO
- US crypto enforcement tsar Choi vowed to crack down on digital platforms, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued performance last Friday on Wall St where risk sentiment was hampered by a disappointing University of Michigan Survey and US debt ceiling concerns, while participants in the region brace for this week’s key economic releases including the latest Chinese activity data due tomorrow.
- ASX 200 was rangebound amid losses in the top-weighted financial sector and weakness in tech although the downside in the index was cushioned by resilience in mining stocks and several M&A-related headlines.
- Nikkei 225 outperformed with many of the biggest gainers in the index driven by earnings results.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong choppy and the mainland pressured after reports that G7 Leaders will discuss shared principles on China’s economic coercion and with the US to look at how outbound investment assessment can complement export controls to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC announced CNY 125bln (vs CNY 100bln maturing) in 1-year MLF with the rate kept at 2.75%.
- PBoC Monetary Policy Implementation Report (Q1): Inflation may rebound gradually in H2 2023. Prudent monetary policy will be precise and forceful; will keep policy reasonably ample. Click here for more detail.
- PBoC says should not exaggerate temporary fall in CPI; GDP growth-inflation gap is due to delays in demand.
- US official said the G7 Leaders’ statement is to discuss shared principles on China’s economic coercion and the US will look at how outbound investment assessment can complement export controls to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to China, while the statement will also discuss tools used to counter economic security threats including those posed by China, according to Reuters.
- China jailed US citizen John Shing-Wan Leung for life on espionage charges, according to AFP.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said he told G7 counterparts that Japan’s economy is picking up and its core CPI is likely to slow the pace of increase towards the middle of the current fiscal year, while he said the BoJ is continuing with easy monetary policy to sustainably and stably achieve the price target, according to Reuters.
- Japanese PM Kishida is to order the government and BoJ to assess the wage outlook to determine if recent wage hikes would be sustainable, according to Nikkei.
- Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition took an early lead in polling results in which the Pheu Thai party had about 23% of votes and was closely followed by the Move Forward party with about 22.5% of votes in what was seen as a rebuke against the military-aligned government with the United Thai Nation party and ruling Palang Pracharath party seen trailing at 8% and 10% of votes, respectively, according to FT. It was later reported that the Thailand Election Commission announced that with 99% of votes counted, Move Forward have 151 seats and Pheu Thai have 141 seats.
- Indian PM Modi’s BJP lost control of the state assembly in the crucial election in the southern state of Karnataka which was closely watched ahead of the national poll that takes place in under a year, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Apr) 5.8% (Prev. 7.2%, Rev. 7.4%); MM (Apr) 0.2% (Rev. 0.1%)
- Australian Building Approvals MM (Apr) -0.1% vs Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 3.9%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.38 PTS OR 1.17% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 343.89 POINTS OR 1.73% /The Nikkei closed UP 238.04 OR 0.81% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.10 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9508 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9609 /Oil DOWN TO 70.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 74.59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA
CHINA///USA//TAIWAN
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
This will hurt the UK’s finances: Net migration into Britain could top one million this year doubling its previous record
(Brooke/Remix)
Net Migration Into Britain Could Top 1 Million This Year, Doubling Prior Record
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Home Office officials fear soon-to-be released immigration statistics will show net migration into the U.K. topping 1 million, despite numerous pledges by Britain’s governing Conservative party over the past decade to significantly reduce the numbers.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures due to be published on May 25 are expected to show a huge increase in new arrivals, far above the previous peak of 504,000 recorded in the year to June 2022.
Home Office data already show that more than 1.3 million people arrived in Britain last year, many of whom received work permits or student visas, meaning the net migration figure will be determined by the number of people emigrating from the country.
Experts at the Center for Policy Studies (CPS) have forecast the net figure to be between 700,000 and 997,000, while a second analysis estimates a more conservative figure of between 650,000 and 675,000.
“If emigration has reverted to pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit patterns, we could see net migration hit the one million mark,” Karl Williams, a CPS senior researcher told The Telegraph.
“This would be at the very top end of our estimates but by no means an implausible figure,” he added.
Either way, the figure will show an exponential rise in immigration into a country that has voted for Conservative governments since 2010 that initially ran on a ticket of reducing net migration to the “tens of thousands.” This pledge was eventually dropped by the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, despite Brits generally opposing the rate of immigration experienced over the past decade.
In a YouGov poll published in December last year, 57 percent of respondents said the level of immigration into Britain over the last 10 years has been too high. In contrast, just 7 percent said it had been too low.
Brits have continuously voted in favor of reducing immigration, backing the Conservative Party as the largest party in parliament during the last four general elections. The British electorate also voted in favor of withdrawing from the European Union in 2016, with a key pledge from the Leave campaign being to “take back control of our borders.” In the final European parliamentary elections before the U.K.’s formal withdrawal, Brits also overwhelmingly supported the pop-up Brexit Party.
The soon-to-be-published immigration figures could be hugely damaging for Rishi Sunak’s administration, which is already between 16 and 19 percentage points behind the Labour Party according to the most recent polling.
The figures will also enrage a number of backbench Conservative MPs who have long called for more restrictive border controls. “Population growth at this level is unsustainable. The government needs to act immediately and radically to curb migration,” said influential Conservative backbencher Sir John Hayes.
Earlier this year, the Conservative party presented a new immigration bill to parliament, which would see all people who arrive in Britain illegally detained and deported.
The bill, however, is fraught with complications, not least its compliance with Britain’s international obligations, namely the European Convention on Human Rights.
The country’s asylum system is now so saturated, the government is spending more than £6 million of taxpayers’ cash every day to house asylum seekers in hotels. The government recently announced its intention to relocate many of these individuals from their expensive hotel accommodations to disused military bases and floating barges due to public outrage at the ongoing saga.
END
UK/UKRAINE/RUSSIA
this is getting out of hand: UK sends storm shadow long range cruise missiles to Ukraine which could strike right into the heart of Russia
(ZEROHEDGE)
UK Sends Storm Shadow Long-Range Cruise Missiles To Ukraine
FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2023 – 04:15 AM
For the first time since the war’s start, United Kingdom is donating long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine in order to fight the Russians.
“I can confirm that the UK is donating Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine,” Defence Secretary Ben Wallace informed Parliament Thursday. The missiles were touted as a weapon that will enable the Ukrainians to gain back occupied territory.
“The use of Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian sovereign territory,” Wallace said.
UK officials say the timing is intended to be connected to Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive, which many have said was already expected to have started but hasn’t.
Crucially the Storm Shadow’s range is significantly further than the US-supplied HIMARS. The UK manufacturer touts a range of over 250km (155 miles). By comparison the HIMARS currently in use by Ukraine have a range of 80 km (50 miles), according to common estimates.
According to a BBC description of the Storm Shadow missiles:
They are fired from aircraft, so the longer range means Ukrainian pilots will be able to stay further from the frontlines.
Once launched, the Storm Shadow drops to low altitude to avoid detection by enemy radar, before latching onto its target with an infra-red seeker.
Wallace in his remarks before parliament said that the British government made the decision after Moscow “continued down a dark path” of targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. Starting this month, Russian forces have significantly upped their airstrikes, this after large-scale aerial attacks hadn’t been seen in the prior two months.
“The donation of these missile systems gives Ukraine the best chance of defending themselves against Russia’s brutality,” Wallace told MPs further, while also confirming they are already being transferred and some may already be in possession of Kyiv.
US officials say they are “breathing a quiet sigh of relief” over London’s decision, Politicoreported earlier in the week. Given the significant range of these aircraft-fired cruise missiles, is this a sign that more attacks on Russian territory are coming?
end
/UK/USA//RUSSIA//UKRAINE
Nuclear Fallout? Russian Strikes Create Richter Scale Explosion in Khmelnitsky + Updates
| Robert Hryniak | 6:12 PM (28 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
This is the most serious incident of this conflict so far.
It is likely the DU ammunition sent by the Brits and Americans was stored In this western Ukrainian Ammo depot. There is no question the winds will carry radioactive dust Westward. The is a gift that will delivering for some time. It may be some of those American troops in Romania will be affected. Hopefully most of the fallout got burnt and stays local.
Crazy business.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/nuclear-fallout-russian-strikes-create
END
GERMANY/UKRAINE
Germany unveils a huge 2.7 billion euro arms pkg to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Germany Unveils €2.7BN Ukraine Arms Package As Zelensky Tours Europe
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Over the weekend Germany unveiled a a new weapons package worth 2.7 billion euros ($2.95 billion) for Ukraine, at a moment President Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting with Western leaders in Europe.
“An important visit for approaching victory of Ukraine!” Zelensky tweeted after arriving in EU and NATO member Italy on Saturday. He met with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for 70 minutes, thanking her for “for helping to save lives”, after which he met with Pope Francis in the Vatican, reportedly lobbying the pontiff to back Kiev’s own peace plan.Via EFE
Zelensky then traveled to Germany on Sunday, the day after Berlin confirmed the massive new defense aid package.
Naturally, the Ukrainian leader is already pressing for more – as The New York Times writes of the trip to meeting with Scholz: “Speaking to journalists side by side at the chancellery on Sunday morning, Mr. Zelensky and Chancellor Olaf Scholz traded remarks of gratitude and praise. But their responses to some questions — namely on fighter jets — reflected that Kyiv is still struggling to gain traction with Berlin and other Western allies on some of its key demands.”
Apparently German could only roll out the red carpet for Zelensky in a guilt-free way only after pledging the billions in new arms:
Mr. Zelensky was escorted to Berlin by German fighter jets for his first trip to Germany since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began more than a year ago. He met first with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier at Berlin’s Bellevue Palace and was then received with military honors by Mr. Scholz at the chancellery.
The grand reception came a day after Germany had announced its largest package of military aid yet for Kyiv and as the two nations seek to turn the page on months of rocky relations.
Zelensky wrote on Twitter in conjunction with his Berlin visit Sunday: “German air defense systems, artillery, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are saving Ukrainian lives and bringing us closer to victory,” and stressed: “Germany is a reliable ally!”
All of this is a huge about-face for Germany, which has been hesitant since the start of the conflict to jump headlong into a proxy war situation which may eventually escalate into a direct Russia-NATO clash. But Berlin grew bolder with the supply of Leopard II battle tanks. Zelensky attempted to address German concerns Sunday:
Ukraine has no plans to hit targets in Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said in Germany, where Kyiv secured a big new defence aid package.
“We are not attacking Russian territory,” he said after talks in Berlin with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“We are preparing a counterattack to de-occupy the illegitimately conquered territories,” Mr Zelensky added.
But the past couple months of increasing drone attacks from Ukraine, particularly on Russian oil facilities, show differently.
Pentagon leaks examined by The Washington Post also reveal that Zelensky has secretly greenlighted attacks inside Russian territory:
On Saturday there were multiple Russian aircraft downed in the same border region near Ukraine, with many observers saying this may have been a cross-border shoot-down situation which would mark a huge advance in Ukraine’s capabilities.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL
Truce holds between Israel and Islamic Jihad
(zerohedge)
Gaza Truce Holds Into Sunday Between Israel & Islamic Jihad
SUNDAY, MAY 14, 2023 – 02:00 PM
A truce between Israel and militant factions in Gaza appears to be holding as normal life resumes on both sides Sunday following the deal formally taking effect since 10pm the night before.
The past five days of fighting, which saw hundreds of rockets fired from the strip – mainly by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group – resulted in sustained massive Israeli airstrikes against targets in Gaza. This resulted in 34 Palestinians killed, among them some of PIJ’s senior commandos. An Israeli was killed when a Palestinian rocket slammed into an apartment complex, and there were multiple others injured.Via Reuters
Egypt brokered the ceasefire, and was thanked on Sunday by both sides for its mediation. “In the light of the agreement of the Palestinian and the Israeli side, Egypt announces a ceasefire between the Palestinian and the Israeli side has been reached,” a text of the official ceasefire agreement reads.
“The two sides will abide by the ceasefire which will include an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately when the ceasefire goes into effect,” it said.
Islamic Jihad confirmed its adherence to the deal in a statement: “We declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation [Israel] abides by it,” according to a PIJ spokesman.
Meanwhile Reuters correspondents have confirmed that “Life on both sides of the Gaza Strip border began returning to normal on Sunday after an Egyptian-mediated ceasefire halted five days of fighting between Israel and Islamic Jihad,” and further:
Israel reopened its goods and commercial border crossings, allowing fuel to flow to the lone power plant in the blockaded coastal enclave. Shops and public offices reopened and crowds returned to streets that had been deserted for days.
The flare-up is being called the worst fighting since a 10-day war in 2021. Israel’s bombardment of the strip resulted in over 50 homes destroyed and some 950 people displaced, according to UN officials.
As for total of wounded, local health authorities have cited at least 190 Palestinians, while on the Israeli side 30 were injured – most of them while running to shelters seeking cover under rocket fire.
END
TURKEY
Turkey Confirms Election Runoff, But With Erdogan In Driver’s Seat
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 02:25 PM
On Monday Turkey’s High Election Board confirmed that the country’s two leading candidates from Sunday’s election will hold a runoff vote in two weeks, after neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor top opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu broke past the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the first round.
Erdogan and his AK party’s allies are expected to retain a parliamentary majority as a result of the Sunday elections, which saw some of the highest voter turnout in the nation’s history. Turnout was 89% of eligible voters. With 100 percent counted, Erdogan captured 49.5% of the vote – which is significantly better than even pre-election polls predicted – compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%.
As we noted previously, real surprise – and disruptor for both sides – was a third candidate, Sinan Ogan of the ultra-nationalist Ancestor Alliance. He took 5.2% of the vote and and prevented an outright win for either of the two leading candidates. Will Ogan endorse Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu in the runoff? This could be a major factor in determining the outcome in two weeks (May 28).
As Axios reports of Ogan, “He has said he would only consider endorsing Kılıçdaroğlu if the opposition leader promised not to make any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party. However, Kılıçdaroğlu needs Kurdish support to have any chance of victory.”
But it remains that “Erdoğan will be heavily favored in the runoff given his advantage in the first round and the likelihood that conservative Oğan voters could back him in the second round.”
And summarizing some of the opposition claims throughout Sunday evening that state media was intentionally skewing and manipulating results as they came in, Axios writes further:
- Opposition politicians cried foul as initial election returns on Sunday showed Erdoğan with a large lead, claiming state media was intentionally reporting Erdoğan strongholds first.
- Some prominent opposition members insisted, ultimately inaccurately, that Kılıçdaroğlu was actually ahead and might win in the first round.
- Erdoğan greeted joyful supporters on Wednesday night and said he would welcome a second round if that’s what it took to win.
Kilicdaroglu in a late Sunday speech charged Erdogan with “blocking the will of Turkey” – which is a preview of the political fighting and chaos to come of the next two weeks:
Kemal Kilicdaroglu has said that the Erdogan camp keeps objecting to the results from certain ballot boxes to block the system.
“There are ballot boxes that have been objected to six times, 11 times,” he said, adding: “You are blocking the will of Turkey.”
Kilicdaroglu said: “You cannot prevent what will happen through objections. We will not allow a fait accompli.”
According to the resulting jitters through Turkish markets, Bloomberg observed Monday morning as the world woke up to news of the final tally, “Government bonds fell as the cost of insuring against default rose, while Turkey’s benchmark stock index sank 7% at the open.” Further, “The lira also traded lower even as state banks intervened to hold the exchange rate at around 19.65 per dollar, people familiar with the matter said.” On the next two weeks of uncertainty looming, Ogeday Topcular, a money manager at RAM Capital SA was quoted as saying:
- “If these results hold, it would be one of the worst outcomes for the markets”
- “There will be unclarity for the next 2 weeks and even if Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins in the second round, the parliament situation would not help a lot. Central Bank’s balance sheet is in a very dire situation and this uncertainty could create more demand for hard currencies”
- “Turkish economy will no longer withstand the existing monetary policy so the new policies should be determined as soon as possible. Even two weeks is a long time to wait”
* * *
And for more observation on market reaction via BFW (Bloomberg First Word):
Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai
- “For bulls on Turkish assets, expectations have quickly shifted from a possible outright win for Kilicdaroglu in round one to — at best — a split government should he win round two given Erdogan’s People Alliance has won a majority in parliament, and — at worst — another mandate for Erdoganomics”
- “Without any reversion to orthodox economic policy, which would carry its own painful corrective steps in the short-term, the investment case in Turkish local-currency assets remains trapped in a debate as to whether devaluation is sufficient to reflect market- unfriendly interest rate policy”
- “This is a major disappointment to investors hoping for a win for opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu and the reversion to orthodox economic policy he promised; a hope reinforced by the withdrawal of rival centrist candidate Ince on 11 May.”
Richard Segal, a fixed-income analyst at Ambrosia Capital Ltd.
- “It’s a big lead for Erdogan to lose in just two weeks and the fact that the stock market has lost last week’s gains, and then some, so quickly, suggests markets are quickly discounting another victory for the incumbent, and more policy unorthodoxy.”
- “Bond yields haven’t moved much yet, but CDS has reacted very quickly. Bonds will probably continue falling. My guess is a large decline throughout the morning and then prices will stabilize at the new lower base.”
Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe
- “With the presidential election looking as if it is heading into an unprecedented second round, the outcome of the weekend’s vote spells a longer period of uncertainty for foreign investors. Although the odds have tipped back in the favor of the incumbent Erdogan, the outcome largely depends on who Sinan Ogan endorses.”
- “We think continued uncertainty on what the future macro framework looks like will lead to sustained depreciation in the lira, albeit at a slower pace given the capital controls current in place.”
- “We continue to see Kilicdaroglu’s agenda as the most painful for the lira in the near-term but constructive for Turkish assets over the medium-term, while re-election of Erdogan without any pressure by coalition members to dial down his economic agenda will result in much of the same for the Turkish economy: a slow decline in inflation and continued TRY depreciation at the expense of the government’s finances.”
Piotr Matys, senior currency analyst at In Touch Capital Markets in London
- “The next two weeks are likely to be the most tense in Turkish politics since the AKP and its leader Erdogan came to power two decades ago. A lot can happen in politics in a day, let alone in two weeks”
- “Back door FX interventions are likely to continue over the next two weeks to keep the lira relatively stable. Investors will be looking very closely at opinion polls to evaluate who may win the second round”
Henrik Gullberg, macro strategist at Coex Partners Ltd
- Says the market impact will probably be “limited” given most market participants did not expect a winner in the first round anyway. Though some disappointment is likely which could be “reflected in depreciation pressures on the lira”
- “If Erdogan has a lead over Kilicdaroglu when the counting is complete, the probability of a regime shift would be reduced. Most market people saw a decent chance of an opposition win. If Kilicdaroglu does not have a buffer vs Erdogan in the first round, then most market participants would likely revert back to being pessimistic about the chances of a (market friendly) regime shift”
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote
- Expects “high political uncertainty to result in low predictability and high volatility in equity and bond markets for the coming weeks”
- Political uncertainty and risk-off sentiment will likely result in “high volatility and rising yields” in bonds
- end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Col Douglas MacGregor…
He nails it
| Robert Hryniak | |||
| to | |||
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES
end
Vaccine issues:
The real truth behind the colossal failure of the vaccine
(Huber/EpochTimes)
A Colossal Failure Around The World
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Colleen Huber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Let’s summarize what we now know of the negative efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, and why vaccinated people—not the unvaxxed—suffer frequent bouts of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 vaccines—and the new bivalents, of which they are a part—are alarmingly and irredeemably unsafe, as well as ineffective for the advertised purposes. It is increasingly recognized by laypeople, physicians, and scientists throughout the world that the COVID-19 vaccines are neither safe, nor effective, nor reversible.
In this article, I show irrefutable proof that the COVID-19 vaccines are irredeemably ineffective. (See many dozens of my other Substack articles, and my book, “Neither Safe Nor Effective,” on how dangerous these vaccines are.)
Background
U.S. mortality data at the end of 2020 did not support the allegation of a pandemic, because there was no more of an outlying peak in excess deaths in 2020 than other peaks throughout the past two decades, as reported at that time. A series of CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] revisions have continually increased the number claimed dead in 2020. Even now, as of April 24, the CDC shows that 3,383,729 people died from all causes in the United States in 2020 on one page written in December 2021, [1]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db427.pdfhttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
If even two years after the end of 2020, allegations of the number of those dead in 2020 continue to increase, at what point will that number be settled? How is it that by December 2021 an accurate number of deaths in 2020 was not available to the CDC?
In either case, mortality for 2020 (the year of COVID-19 virulence) was less than for 2021 (the year of the COVID-19 vaccine), which was 3,464,000. [2] The 2020 mortality number remained at about one percent of the total U.S. population, as in each of the previous three years, in which there was no pandemic.
Notably, December 2020 had by far the highest deaths of any month in 2020 in the United States, 32 percent higher than the average of the previous 11 months of what had been advertised to be the worst pandemic in a century, but in fact had no more than typical numbers of deaths in the U.S. during that alleged pandemic.
Data released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development show that each of those last three weeks in December 2020, excess deaths (number of deaths over those expected) had higher excess deaths than any of the previous weeks of the alleged pandemic. [3] Each of those last three weeks of December 2020 exceeded 25,000 excess deaths per week, whereas even the worst COVID-19 hospitalization weeks, the first two weeks of April 2020, did not exceed 25,000 excess deaths per week.
The Pfizer vaccines were released to the American public on Dec. 14, 2020. [4]
As of this time, no children are known to have died in the United States with a COVID-19 diagnosis except for those having terminal leukemia and other advanced cancers and grave terminal illnesses and other non-COVID-19 life-threatening circumstances. It has been calculated that seasonal flu, lightning, and being a passenger in a motor vehicle are all more life-threatening to children and adolescents than any of the COVID-19 variants.
It may be no coincidence that December 2020 was the month that the vaccines became available to the public. Early 2021 showed striking excess deaths, and the COVID-19 vaccine was the new factor. Furthermore, January to November 2020 show an average of 274,000 deaths in the United States per month, but since December 2020, according to the same CDC tables of data, the average deaths per month jumped to 288,250.
The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines first became available for mass vaccination in the United States on Dec. 14, 2020, followed by the Moderna vaccine a few days later. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine would not become available till Feb. 27, 2021. As soon as the earlier vaccines became distributed en masse, the total number of deaths per week for the rest of 2020 from all causes in the United States jumped from 63,000 to 84,000, which is a 32 percent increase, unlikely to be attributable to any other cause but the vaccines. Before the officially reported numbers change yet again, let’s take a screenshot from the CDC.CDC National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System. Monthly and 12 month-ending number of live births, deaths, and infant deaths: United States. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm
Notice how much higher January 2021 deaths are than for each of the next five months. Although January is typically the month with highest deaths in most years, January’s death rate was 32 percent higher than February’s.
It can be seen from the CDC data, that the deaths per week in the United States in each of the first seven weeks following the Pfizer and Moderna rollout all exceeded even the deadliest weeks of 2020 (the two weeks ending April 11 and April 18 of 2020). [5] This should be enough to make anyone hesitant about the vaccines, and logically, more fearful of the vaccines than of COVID-19.
Public Health ‘Experts’ Have Not Been Straightforward With the Data
A confounding factor for assessing safety or efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines has been a deceptive use of the word “unvaccinated” by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to not only include those who were never COVID-19-vaccinated but also those who have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine less than seven or 14 days ago. This “case-counting window bias” allows infections, injuries, and deaths immediately following vaccination to be assigned to, and sometimes even attributed to, the “unvaccinated” category, by deceptive sleight of hand.
Fung, Jones, et al. write of such deception: “This asymmetry, in which the case-counting window nullifies cases in the vaccinated group but not in the unvaccinated group, biases estimates.” [6] A problem with this miscategorization is that injuries and deaths have all peaked closely following COVID-19 vaccination—mostly on the first day—as in the graph below. Yet those individuals, for being so recently vaccinated, are falsely assigned the label “unvaccinated,” confounding much of the reported data.https://openvaers.com/covid-data/mortality
The only good about this mis-categorization problem is that it is no longer such an issue now in 2023 and going forward. This deception really confounded much data in 2021, the year of peak COVID-19 vaccine uptake, and to a much lesser extent in 2022.
Now in 2023, very few individuals are still being COVID-19-vaccinated, so nearly everyone has made their decision to be vaccinated or not, more than 14 days ago, and are therefore now in widely agreed upon and accurate categories at this late time. But there is little likelihood at this point of eventual correction of previous miscategorization—and therefore corruption—of this essential public health data, 2020 through 2022.
COVID-19 Vaccines Have Negative Efficacy, and What That Means
The COVID-19 vaccines are so ineffective against COVID-19 that they have negative efficacy. This means that you have a greater likelihood of infection and/or hospitalization from COVID-19 after having received the vaccine than not receiving it. The COVID-19 vaccines have not only failed to reduce cases and hospitalizations from Omicron and COVID-19 generally, but they have actually increased the incidence of both. Results of negative efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines are seen all over the world.
Neither the Pfizer nor Moderna clinical trials addressed preventing transmission.
Tal Zaks is the chief medical officer at Moderna. He told the British Medical Journal, “Our trial will not demonstrate prevention of transmission, because in order to do that you have to swab people twice a week for very long periods, and that becomes operationally untenable.” [7]
Dr. Larry Corey oversaw the National Institutes of Health COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials. He said on Nov. 20, 2020: “The studies aren’t designed to assess transmission. They don’t ask that question, and there’s really no information on this at this point in time.” (The article where he was quoted as saying this had not been, but is now, behind a paywall.) [8]
Negative Efficacy Shown by the Most Prestigious Medical Journals
The New England Journal of Medicine shows that those who are fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19 recover significantly more slowly from the illness and remain contagious for longer periods of time after SARS-CoV-2 infection. [9]From Figure 1, J Boucau and C Marino, Duration of shedding of culturable virus in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.1) infection. Jun 29, 2022. N Eng J Med. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9258747/
The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) published data showing that persons receiving two or more doses of COVID-19 vaccines experienced more re-infections with COVID-19 than people receiving 0 to 1 dose and that the probability of reinfection increased with time. “Surprisingly, 2 or more doses of vaccine were associated with a slightly higher probability of reinfection compared with 1 dose or less.” [10]
An analysis in the British Medical Journal found a “net expected individual harm” from the COVID-19 vaccines in the context of college mandates, and calculated that “boosting young adults with BNT 162b2 [BNT162b2 is a lipid nanoparticle–formulated, nucleoside-modified RNA vaccine that encodes a prefusion stabilized, membrane-anchored SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike protein] could cause 18.5 times more SAEs [significant adverse events] per million (593.5) than COVID-19 hospitalizations averted (32.0).” And “for each hospitalization averted we estimate approximately 18.5 SAEs and 1430-4626 disruptions of daily activities—that is not outweighed by a proportionate public health benefit.” [11]
Negative Efficacy of the COVID Vaccines Is Seen Throughout the World
Subramanian and Kumar examined COVID vaccination across 68 countries and found “… the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.” [12]
Switkay showed that Subramanian and Kumar’s trend line regarding relation between new COVID-19 cases and vaccination is not only positive but “… indeed, there is a very strong positive association.” [13]H Switkay. Comment on Subramanian and Kumar… Mar 13, 2022. PDMJ. https://pdmj.org/papers/Comment_on_Subramanian_and_Kumar
A Bayesian analysis of data from 145 countries shows that the COVID-19 vaccines cause more COVID-19 cases per million and more COVID-19-associated deaths per million over the vast international scope of this study. [14] The study found “a marked increase in both COVID-19 related cases and death due directly to a vaccine deployment …” The results in the United States were 38 percent more cases per million [15] and 31 percent more deaths per million [16] caused by the COVID-19 vaccines.
Other studies found no difference in viral loads or rates of infection between vaccinated and unvaccinated. [17] [18] [19]
In order to further comprehend this vast worldwide lack of efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, let’s now look at analyses of the phenomenon of negative efficacy of the vaccines in specific countries.
A study of 51,011 employees of the Cleveland Clinic in the United States was done. It found the “Risk of COVID-19 increased with time since the most recent prior COVID-19 episode and with the number of vaccine doses previously received.” [20]
The following graph shows increasing cumulative incidence of COVID-19 disease starting after the first day of the Cleveland Clinic study. We can see a clear dose-dependent increase in infections made worse by each successive dose of the COVID-19 vaccines, with the unvaccinated having far less COVID-19 disease than their vaccinated co-workers.
The small print at the right says, going down from the top [in yellow] more than 3 doses. [in blue] 3 doses, [in green] 2 doses, [in red] one dose, [in black] 0 doses.N Shrestha, P Burke, et al. Effectiveness of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bivalent vaccine. Dec 19, 2022. “Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 [infections] for subjects stratified by the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses previously received. Day zero was 12 September 2022, the day the bivalent vaccine began to be offered to employees. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals are jittered along the x-axis to improve visibility.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf
An Oxford University study of 900 hospital staff members in Vietnam showed that peak viral loads among the infected vaccinated (“breakthrough” infected) staff were 251 times higher than those of unvaccinated personnel. [21]
This Danish study [22] showed that both Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines showed negative efficacy against the Omicron variant within only 90 days of administration and that that decline in efficacy was even faster for Omicron than for the earlier Delta variant. This sharp decline is illustrated in the following graph.C Hansen, A Schelde, et al. Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: A Danish cohort study. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v3.full.pdf
The above graph shows that both of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines predispose toward increased risk for Omicron infection, as the timeline passes the 90-day point, due to negative efficacy.
89.7 percent of people infected with Omicron in Denmark were either “fully vaccinated” or had their first booster. 77.9 percent of the Danish population was fully vaccinated as of the time of the study. [23] Therefore, the vaccinated have been more predisposed to Omicron infection than the unvaccinated in Denmark.
Data from the UK government, Office for National Statistics, shows that each successive vaccine dose has increased the likelihood of testing positive for the Omicron variant, in a stunning display of negative vaccine efficacy. [24]
Worse yet, risk of death from COVID-19 is shown to increase with each successive dose of vaccine for most age groups, as in the following table published by the UK government’s Health Security Agency. [25]UK Health Security Agency. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report. Week 9. Mar 3, 2022. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1058464/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-9.pdf
On a population-wide level in Ireland, mass vaccination is correlated in timing with dramatically rising COVID-19 cases. The Irish population has had among the highest rates of vaccine penetration in its adult population, 94.8 percent fully vaccinated as of Jan. 22, 2022, yet COVID-19 cases rose 317 percent over the previous January before the vaccines were in use. [26]
In Scotland also, among those who had received one, two, or three vaccines, or none at all, the unvaccinated had the lowest case rates in January 2022 of all four groups, as seen in this table [27] and graph. [28]Public Health Scotland. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report. Jan 17, 2022. p. 38. https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11802/22-01-19-covid19-winter_publication_report_revised.pdfPublic Health Scotland. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report. Jan 17, 2022. p. 40. https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11802/22-01-19-covid19-winter_publication_report_revised.pdf
Two other very heavily vaccinated countries saw their case rates skyrocket following mass vaccination. Here are South Korea and Germany: [29]Johns Hopkins University. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#explore-the-global-situation
A study of 4,020 cases of Omicron in Germany on Dec. 31, 2021, showed that of those, 1,137 were boosted. There were only 1097 unvaccinated Omicron cases. [30] [31]
However, there are similar numbers of people in the three categories of “boosted,” fully vaccinated” and “unvaccinated” in Germany as of Dec. 31, 2021. German scientists studying the German government’s excess mortality data observed that the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality. [32]
As we can see, the unvaccinated have had a strong advantage against Omicron, which was the prevalent COVID-19 strain throughout the world at that time. The COVID-19 vaccines do not work against the Delta strain either. In July 2021, in the United States, in Massachusetts, at a time and place that Delta was predominant, of a total of 469 new COVID-19 cases, 346 of those (74 percent) were in people who were partially or fully vaccinated, and 274 of the vaccinated were symptomatic. [33]
In Delhi, India, of 34 Omicron cases at a hospital, 33 were fully vaccinated (97 percent). However, India’s COVID-19 vaccination rate was only 40 percent at that time. [34]
Both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were found to plunge to negative efficacy within months. [35] [36] [37]
The Implications of Negative Efficacy in a Heavily Jabbed World
A study by Chemaitelly et al. in Qatar of over 2,000,000 people, for whom vaccination status and COVID-19 disease incidence data were available, showed, just as the preceding studies, that zero to negative efficacy was apparent within months after injection. Authors attributed that decline to “immune imprinting compromising protection in people who had the booster vaccination against the newer omicron sublineages.” The authors explain the mechanism further as [the booster] “could have trained the immune response to expect a specific narrow pre-omicron challenge; thus the response was suboptimal when the actual challenge was an immune-evasive omicron subvariant.” [38]
Original Antigenic Sin
OAS is likely exacerbated by the mistaken approach of vaccinologists, tampering with the blood, whereas the body is well-prepared to confront new microbes by way of the respiratory tract, not by way of first introduction through the blood.
If the COVID-19 vaccines merely predisposed one to higher risk of the common cold now known as the Delta and Omicron and subsequent variants, then we might simply laugh off these vaccines as a frivolous and superstitious activity. However, the safety data are nothing less than horrifying.
Reposted from Colleen Huber’s Substack.
END
Judge Orders FDA To Speed Up Release Of COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Data From 23.5 Years To Just 2
SUNDAY, MAY 14, 2023 – 08:30 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A federal judge in Texas this week ordered the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to make public data it relied on to license COVID-19 vaccines—Moderna’s for adults and Pfizer’s for children—at an accelerated rate, requiring all documents to be made public by mid-2025 rather than, as the FDA wanted, over the course of around 23.5 years.Pfizer, left, and Moderna bivalent COVID-19 vaccines are readied for use at a clinic in Richmond, Va., in a Nov. 17, 2022, file image. (Steve Helber/AP Photo)
In a decision hailed as a win for transparency by the lawyer representing the plaintiffs (the parents of a child injured by a COVID-19 vaccine) in a lawsuit (pdf) against the FDA, the Texas judge ordered the FDA to produce the data about ten times faster than the agency wanted.
“Democracy dies behind closed doors,” is how U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman opened his order (pdf), issued on May 9, which requires the FDA to produce the data on Moderna’s and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines at an average rate of at least 180,000 pages per month.
The FDA had argued it would be “impractical” to release the estimated 4.8 million pages at more than between 1,000 and 16,000 pages per month, which would have taken at least 23.5 years.
Aaron Siri of Siri & Glimstad, who represents the plaintiffs in the legal action against the FDA, called the decision “another blow for transparency and accountability” that builds on an earlier court order targeting Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine data for those aged 16 and older.
The January 2022 order (pdf), also issued by Pittman, forced the FDA to produce all its data on Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 16 and older at a rate of 55,000 pages per month, or much faster than the 75 years the agency had sought.
“That production should be completed in a few more months,” Siri said in a statement, referring to the earlier Pfizer data for those aged 16 and up.
The latest order requires the FDA to produce all of its data on Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds (and Moderna’s product for adults) by June 31, 2025.
The FDA did not immediately return a request for comment by The Epoch Times.
‘Stale Information Is of Little Value’
While the judge noted in his order that the court recognizes the FDA’s limited resources dedicated to freedom of information requests (FOIA), he argued that “the number of resources an agency dedicates to such requests does not dictate the bounds of an individual’s FOIA rights.”
“Instead, the Court must ensure that the fullest possible disclosure of the information sought is timely provided—as ‘stale information is of little value,’” Pittman wrote.
In order to ensure the FDA can meet the accelerated deadline—so around ten times faster than the agency wanted—the judge ordered the parties to the lawsuit to confer and submit a joint production schedule for the data by May 23, 2023.
In the earlier case adjudicated by Pittman, the FDA had argued it only had the bandwidth to review and release around 500 pages per month of an estimated total 450,000 pages of material about the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 16 and older.
Read more here..
Farewell Questions For Rochelle Walensky
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 04:45 PM
Authored by El Gato Malo via The Brownstone Institute,
Given what we now know about the complete failure of covid vaccines to provide sterilizing immunity, stop infection, or stop spread as well as the fact that such issues were not even tested for in the drug trials that approved them, certain questions would seem to demand asking:
Just what was this “Data from the CDC today” that suggested that “Vaccinated people do not carry the virus?”
Was there, in fact, any data at all?
Or was this a completely fabricated claim used to underpin the mass rollout of a product that failed so spectacularly right out of the gates and:
- Where the sorts of safety and inefficacy signals that would have pulled any other vaccine in history off the market were ignored
- Where the data collection was rigged to make known adverse events difficult to find, report, and aggregate in the V-safe system by removing them from searchable database fields and placing them in free text response.
- And where the mandated safety assessments were not being performed until long after problems were evident, allowing the CDC to miss the most blatant safety signal in history.
There seem to be an awfully large body of claims made by CDC that appear to have lacked foundation in fact or data. Both Dr Walensky and her predecessor Robert Redfield would seem to have a great deal to answer for here.
“The covid vaccine will make the vaccinated a dead end for the virus.”
This talking point was simply everywhere all at once.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla certainly pushed this narrative. Presumably, the fact that he was allowed to do so (itself quite an exceptional situation) implies the acquiescence of FDA, CDC, and other regulators.
Upon what was this seemingly widespread consensus based?
The matter appears to have never even been studied at the time the claims were made.
Why were the usually strict and fastidious US regulators so sanguine about such unusually aggressive and certain statements?
This is a most unusual situation and such an extraordinary outcome would seem to demand an extraordinary explanation.
Yet none seems forthcoming.
“The mRNA and the spike protein do not last long in the body” constitutes another key early safety claim similarly rooted in opaque or absent evidence or perhaps simply assumed or invented. (before being quietly retracted later).
“Protein do not last long in the body” was a key early safety claim similarly rooted in opaque or absent evidence or perhaps simply assumed or invented. (before being quietly retracted later).
This claim also proved extravagantly incorrect.
Wherever one looks, it seems one finds that these grand claims of safety and efficacy were underpinned by a paucity or utter absence of supporting evidence.
Even the definitions themselves such as “Any positive for trace covid from a PCR test at a 40 Cycle Threshold is covid” or “No disease outcomes from vaccines are to be counted until 2 weeks after the second (or third) dose” which left a large window (4-6 weeks) during a period of known immune suppression from the jabs uncounted or even, in many cases, attributed to the unvaccinated in a manner that can make placebo look like high efficacy preventative are so unusual and inconsistent with past practice or sound science as to demand the most pointed of questions as to how such practices came to be and who the decision makers who put them in place were.
This series of unfounded claims and distortionary definitions seems both a poor and a deeply dangerous practice for Public Health.
If we are to have any hope of restoring faith in this field, we must ask and answer the pointed questions of “How did this happen?” and “At whose behest?”
Someone made these choices for some reason. Who and why would seem to be the bare minimum of post mortem here.
It is oft opined that a bad map is worse than no map at all and in this, I must wholeheartedly agree. The public health agencies in America have become the most calamitous of cartographers.
If we would seek to have the agents of public health act as something other than a marketing arm and apologist for the revolving door of Pharma with whom they seem to so regularly swap staff and sinecure then it must once more be turned to serve the public. It may do so only if it regains the public trust and such trust, once lost, may only be restored by asking the hard questions and diligently following the answers wherever so they may lead until we may understand what went wrong, hold the malefactors to account, and effect the means to prevent this from happening again.
Please make no mistake, if nothing is done and this is swept beneath some august Congressional rug or societal memory hole, it will happen again. And soon. This is not a choice I would have for America and one I do not believe you should countenance.
Public health runs on public trust.
I ask you to restore it.
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER:
BRITISH AIRWAYS (BA) TRAGEDY: Veteran British Airways pilot collapses and dies shortly before he was due to captain a full packed passenger jet; did this pilot die due to the mRNA technology based
gene injection vaccine? What would have happened if he died at 35,000 feet? Would commotion of inflight death caused other pilots to panic and crash? Are pilots at risk due to the VACCINE?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 14 |
Why not demand that airlines etc. rule out myocarditis (silent) due to the mRNA technology based COVID gene injection via D-dimers, high-sensitivity troponin test, EKG, gadolinium contrast chest MRI? Before putting pilots in the cockpit.
‘A BRITISH Airways pilot collapsed and died shortly before he was due to captain a packed jet.
END
Cancer and the rise in cancers due to the COVID mRNA technology based gene injection is where we will be hit hard, it is coming, surges in cancer post remission, metastasis
damage to the P53 genome (guardian of the genome), toll like receptors 7 and 8 etc.; the COVID vaccine is devastating & not just the spike protein but the ravage on cancers; METABOLIC SYNDROME is key
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 13 |
We need to focus on metabolic syndrome, it underpins most diseases in western societies so this is where we need to be focused e.g. metabolic disorder e.g. large waist, high cholesterol, sugar, lipids, reduced BMI etc.
Mortality and morbidity is linked to metabolic disease. Heavily.
9 pilot incapacitations and 3 pilot deaths in pilots who took the COVID mRNA technology gene injection; must a plane loaded with commercial passengers drop from the sky literally, CRASH, before the
airline industry, FAA, NTSB and pilots themselves ONLY enter the cockpit after myocarditis is ruled out? Why not mandate high sensitivity troponin, contrast chest MRIs, D-dimers, EKGs before flying?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 13 |
8 other recent Pilot incapacitations in-flight:
April 4, 2023 – United Airlines Flight 2102 (BOI-SFO) – captain was incapacitated, first officer was only one in control of the aircraft. (click here)
March 25, 2023 – TAROM Flight RO-7673 TSR-HRG diverted to Bucharest as 30 yo pilot had chest pain, then collapsed (click here)
March 22, 2023 – Southwest Flight WN6013 LAS-CMH diverted as pilot collapsed shortly after take-off, replaced by non-Southwest pilot (click here)
March 18, 2023 – Air Transat Flight TS739 FDF-YUL first officer was incapacitated about 200NM south of Montreal (click here)
March 13, 2023 – Emirates Flight EK205 MXP-JFK diverted due to pilot illness hour and a half after take-off (click here)
March 11, 2023 – United Airlines Flight UA2007 GUA-ORD diverted due to “incapacitated pilot” who had chest pains (click here)
March 11, 2023? – British Airways (CAI-LHR) pilot collapsed in Cairo hotel and died, was scheduled to fly Airbus A321 from Cairo to London (click here)
March, 3, 2023 – Virgin Australia Flight VA-717 ADL-PER Adelaide to Perth flight was forced to make an emergency landing after First Officer suffered heart attack 30 min after departure. (click here)
3 recent Pilot deaths:
Pilot death – March 17, 2023 – 39 year old Westjet Pilot Benjamin Paul Vige died suddenly in Calgary
Pilot death – March 11, 2023 – British Airways pilot died of heart attack in crew hotel in Cairo before a Cairo to London flight (name & age not released)’
There is a risk that a pilot can die in flight and the plane could crash, the risk is there now with these mRNA technology gene injections. Yes, there are lots of checks and balances but the risk now is present and clear.
See this recent compilation by Makis in his stack (great scholarship):
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
A TUI Airways Boeing 737-800, registration G-FDZZ performing flight BY-1424 from Newcastle,EN (UK) to Las Palmas,CI (Spain), was enroute at FL360 over the Celtic Sea about 150nm south of Cork (Ireland) when the crew decided to return to Newcastle reporting one of the pilots became ill…
Table 5 of LANCET publication by Rosenblum et al. indicates that up to one-third of persons taking mRNA technology (Moderna/Pfizer) based COVID vaccines cannot work or perform normal activities
they are incapacitated at levels far greater, appreciably so, than for other vaccines and so why has the media and medical establishment, physicians, not told people taking the shots of this problem?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 13 |
Do you see the reported deaths? For both mRNA shots in the Table 1 based on the patchy 1% UNDER-reporting in the CDC’s VAERS?
SOURCE:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00054-8/fulltext#tbl5
END
| Open in app or onlineWhy did Sweden that did not lockdown, did not impose COVID mask mandates, did not impose lockdown lunacy, show such depressed excess mortality? Why is excess mortality surging in Japan, one of globe’smost vaccinated nations? What was it about Sweden that they got it so right? Still today.DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 15 SHARE end |
What is causing this? Is the case definition accurate? Is this a real medical condition? are children being damaged by societal and educational system response? McCullough raises this with Clay Clark
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 13 |
Is this vaccine related? Childhood vaccines in general? Now COVID vaccines? Bobby Kennedy Jr. has been on this case for many years and we owe him praise for leading this advocacy.
‘In the beautiful setting of the Trump Doral Resort in Miami, I had the privilege of addressing a huge engaged audience who were ready to take the next steps in restoring our great nation. I crafted speech that called out a mental contagion that has set down upon the earth driven by insecurity, fear, resulting in greater tribalism and division. In the backdrop has been a >50 year meteoric rise in autism spectrum disorder from 1:10,000 in the 1970’s to 1:36 children born today. I outlined the major theories of why this is happening.’
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH When I address America and the world I am working to build relationships, enhance insight, and develop independent thought. The Reawaken America Tour hosted by Clay Clark and General Michael Flynn is a wonderful example of how Americans come together, freely exchange ideas in fellowship with one another, and come away with new perspectives…
END
These graphs today, why did South Africa infections & cases remain so low through omicron? Is it linked to vaccine uptake? We say yes! Is excess mortality linked to vaccine uptake? We say yes!
Early treatment? Yes! I even argue more so to the initial more virulent strains, early treatment (anti-virals & antobiotics as kepart of the regimen) was very effective in reducing infections & deaths
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 14 |
DR PANDA
Cytokine Storm Did Not Kill COVID-19 Patients
Study shows secondary bacterial pneumonia key factor in ventilated COVID-19 deaths
| DR PANDAMAY 12 |
A new analysis of COVID-19 patients who required mechanical ventilation found that nearly half of them also developed secondary bacterial pneumonia. This pneumonia was more likely to be fatal than the COVID-19 infection itself.
Although COVID-19 was the reason these patients were hospitalized, the infection that developed after they were placed on a ventilator was more likely to be fatal if it did not respond to treatment.
The study also found evidence that COVID-19 does not cause a “cytokine storm,” which is believed to be the leading cause of death.
From the study author:
“Those who were cured of their secondary pneumonia were likely to live, while those whose pneumonia did not resolve were more likely to die.”
“Our data suggested that the mortality related to the virus itself is relatively low, but other things that happen during the ICU stay, like secondary bacterial pneumonia, offset that.”
“The term ‘cytokine storm’ means an overwhelming inflammation that drives organ failure in your lungs, your kidneys, your brain and other organs.”
“If that were true, if cytokine storm were underlying the long length of stay we see in patients with COVID-19, we would expect to see frequent transitions to states that are characterized by multi-organ failure. That’s not what we saw.”
“The relatively long length of stay among patients with COVID-19 is primarily due to prolonged respiratory failure, placing them at higher risk of VAP.”
Summary
- Secondary bacterial pneumonia that does not resolve was a key driver of death in patients with COVID-19.
- Those who were cured of their secondary pneumonia were likely to live, while those whose pneumonia did not resolve were more likely to die.
- Secondary bacterial pneumonia may even exceed death rates from the viral infection itself.
- No evidence that COVID-19 causes a ‘cytokine storm.’
These are interesting findings that once again contradict the official narrative. The infection brought on by the use of a ventilator was more likely to be the cause of death.
It’s important to note that ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is an issue for anyone using a ventilator for an extended period of time.
One thing that can be done to reduce the risk of developing VAP is prophylactic antibiotics — which were actively discouraged early on by health authorities.
The worst part is that the role of bacterial infection in the poor outcomes of viral respiratory infections was already fully understood. A 2008 paper found that the vast majority of influenza deaths in 1918 were caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia.
END
END
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VACCINE IMPACT
Berkshire Hathaway Investor Arrested by Warren Buffet at Shareholder Meeting for Pointing out Ties to Bill Gates and Jeffrey Epstein
May 12, 2023 6:44 pm
Peter Flaherty, who is chairman of the National Legal and Policy Center and also a shareholder in Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway company, was arrested during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder’s meeting last weekend for proposing that Warren Buffet should step aside as Chairman of the Board and CEO so someone else who was not tied to Bill Gates and Jeffrey Epstein could lead the company. “I was treated like any other criminal, fingerprinted, handcuffed,” Flaherty said. “I’ve always been courteous with decorum at the annual shareholder meetings. I didn’t raise my voice. I was not disruptive.” As we have previously reported, Warren Buffet was one of the main board members funding the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation just after the foundation started. The Foundation basically owns the World Health Organization. Flaherty said Buffet had donated tens of billions to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, adding: “If ‘woke’ culture is a disease, then philanthropy is the virus. The Gates Foundation bankrolls the teaching of Critical Race Theory around the country, including that math is inherently racist. The Gates Foundation offers a Gender Identity Toolbox which asserts that gender is the result of ‘socially and culturally constructed ideas. This is a lie. Gender is not a cultural construct. It is a genetic and biological fact. We know how much Bill Gates cares about children. He met and traveled with Jeffrey Epstein many times after Epstein was convicted of sex crimes.”
Turkey Defies the U.S. and Western Media as President Erdoğan Wins Popular Vote – Victory in Runoff Almost Certain
May 14, 2023 8:20 pm
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerged victorious in today’s national Turkish elections, despite the Western Media’s attempts to discredit the conservative Turkish President, and support his main opponent, liberal Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. As I reported last week, even the Right Wing Christian Conservative media put out hit pieces against Erdoğan and supported Kılıçdaroğlu, in spite of his liberal pro-LGBT views in a country that is 99% percent Muslim. The reason why the Christian Right sided with Biden and the democrats to try and affect the Turkish national elections, is because both sides in the U.S., both the “liberals” and the “conservatives”, overwhelmingly support the war in Ukraine while demonizing Russia. At the time of writing this article, over 64 million people in Turkey, which has a population of about 85 million, had cast their vote and about 97% of the ballots had been counted, giving Erdoğan a 2.3 million vote lead over his nearest opponent, the U.S.-backed Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Erdoğan is just short of reaching 50% of the popular vote at this point, which would mean that there will be a runoff between him and Kılıçdaroğlu in two weeks. Unless something happens to Erdoğan in the meantime, he is all but assured to win the runoff elections. A few days before the elections, one of the other candidates for President, Muharrem İnce, withdrew from the race over allegations that a recording of him in a sex scandal had surfaced. İnce claimed that the tape was a deepfake, using footage taken from “an Israeli porn site”. Western media sources were quick to predict that İnce’s withdrawal would help Kılıçdaroğlu defeat Erdoğan. If İnce was correct in blaming this on a smear attack by Israeli and U.S. sources to boost Kılıçdaroğlu’s chances of winning the election, then the plan didn’t work, as Erdoğan still came close to reaching 50%, and could still potentially reach that amount at the time of this writing, as some votes have not been calculated yet.
MICHAEL EVERY
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
“Ceiling The Deal?” – What Happens If Risk-Free Rates Turn Out To Be Full Of Risk
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 10:25 AM
By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will this week meet with President Biden to attempt to nut out a deal on raising the US debt ceiling. The meeting is slated to occur tomorrow, and is looking more and more like last chance saloon for US politicians to find enough common ground to avoid a default that Janet Yellen and Jamie Dimon have both said would be a “catastrophe”. The WSJ this morning reports that the Biden administration is exploring “experimental” ways for the US to keep paying its bills until the ceiling is raised. Ever helpful, Donald Trump last week suggested that House Republicans should allow a default to occur should the Democrats refuse to support deep cuts to welfare spending. Trump is the clear poll leader for the GOP nomination for the Presidency, and his grip on the party will serve to paint nervous GOP lawmakers into a corner on spending concessions. The political cost of a climbdown is increasing, and the delta of a default occurring is increasing along with it.
1-month T-bills are this morning paying 5.37% vs 4.89% for the 2-month note.
There’s a comical element in the market attempting to reflect increased credit risk for short-dated US government securities in traded yields. Once upon a time this situation would have been ludicrous, but we live in interesting times. The scenario that we are now countenancing is deeply binary. The yield premium in short-dated bills looks a bit like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller in the context of a potential default that would reverberate through a world financial system predicated on US government IOUs constituting a ‘risk free’ investment. With commercial real estate and US regional banks already teetering from rapid monetary tightening, how much more debt brinkmanship can the nerves of traders handle? What price assets if risk free rates turn out to be full of risk?
Speaking of monetary tightening, last week brought some interesting developments on inflation expectations. The University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectations spooked the market by printing at 3.2%. That was up two ticks from the April reading, and defied expectations of a 1 tick fall. As this Daily noted on Friday, the Bank of England raised their 2024 inflation forecast from 1% to 3.4%. With revisions that large, one would be forgiven for asking exactly what the point of forecasting is? On the flipside, New Zealand 2-year inflation expectations fell from 3.3% to 2.79% and the RBA revised down its forecast for 2023 trimmed-mean inflation from 4.3% to 4% the week before. That change in forecasts from the RBA sits oddly with an internal research document from September that the RBA released last week under a freedom of information request. This research showed that the RBA staff estimated 3.8% to be a “reasonable nominal neutral rate estimate”. If the boffins’ “reasonable estimate” of neutral is correct, that might explain why services inflation has been so persistent with a cash rate that has only just hit 3.85%.
Clearly the revelations out of the RBA imply that markets are under-clubbing the risk of higher policy rates. The idea that risk is weighted to the upside is also prevalent elsewhere, despite fracturing banking systems, weak forward indicators and signs that inflation has already peaked in most major economies. The Bank of England’s Huw Pill (always good for a line) has helpfully noted that UK inflation is at a “turning point”. Unfortunately, with UK growth in the doldrums, and GDP languishing below pre-Covid levels, that turning point resembles the one used by the Titanic moments before striking the iceberg. Pill had earlier told Britons to get used to the idea of being poorer, and our own UK expert, Stefan Koopman, believes that a recession is required to sustainably take the wind out of UK inflation pressures. Gloomy stuff.
Elsewhere, the Fed is poised to pause, and the ECB is sending signals that the end of the cycle is nigh. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos last week said that there could still be more rate hikes on the way, but hedged his comments with the usual line that further hikes will depend on the flow of data and considerations of the tightening in credit conditions that was presaged by the Euro area lending survey earlier in the month.
Conjecture over whether or not central banks are doing enough to get inflation under control (or whether they can actually do anything to get inflation under control) is all well and good, but the debt ceiling remains the elephant in the room for now. Markets are fixing their eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen (the ‘star variables’), and hoping that the unthinkable doesn’t happen in the meantime. This week we will be looking forward to US politicians ‘ceiling a deal’ to keep markets turning over so we can all go back to worrying about normal things like inflation and geopolitics.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Natural gas drilling collapses at its fastest pace since 2016 as the economy falters.
(zerohedge)
US NatGas Drilling Collapses At Fastest Rate Since 2016
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 05:45 AM
According to a new report from Baker Hughes Co., the US natural gas sector is rapidly pulling drilling rigs from the field due to oversupply conditions that have led to a collapse in NatGas prices over a nine-month period.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that exploration companies reduced rigs by 16 to 141 this week. This is the most significant weekly decline since February 2016.
Nabors Industries Ltd., one of the top providers of rigs to shale drillers, warned last month about the fall in rig orders. The rig provider expects a 9% slide in its US rig leases by the end of June. Its bearish forecast comes as prices once commanded more than $10 per million British thermal units in late August 2022 and have since plunged to $2.25.
Bloomberg explained a combination of factors led to the NatGas glut:
“The glut developed after a key US gas-export facility was shut by a fire and abnormally mild winter weather gutted heating demand.”
The good news is that low prices have pushed drillers to curtail production growth. Comstock Resources Inc. and Southwestern Energy Co. have already said drilling in Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale region would be reduced.
“What’s going to suffer the most is the number of drilling rigs,” said Angie Gildea, who heads KPMG LLP’s US energy, natural resources, and chemicals team. She noted companies “will take lower production growth over having to reduce dividends to shareholders.”
Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. analysts warn some exploration companies are shutting down existing wells due to the supply glut and low prices.
“We expect further reductions across both natural gas rigs and frac fleets in the Haynesville, while throttling and shut-ins are likely to be needed across all basins by the summer,” Citigroup’s Paul Diamond wrote in a note to clients.
Low NatGas prices plus tighter credit conditions will make it even more challenging for drillers to tap credit lines from big banks. This is the necessary step to correct oversupply conditions.
end
US “Plans” To Buy 3 Million Barrels For SPR Days After It Drained 2.9 Million In One Week
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 04:13 PM
With oil stubbornly the only asset class that is pricing in if not a depression then certainly a deep recession – even as every other asset is already pricing in the inevitable Fed easing in response to said recession – and the price of WTI tumbling as low as $63 at the start of May, the credibility behind the Biden administration’s promise to restock the recently drained SPR has become the butt of all jokes. As a reminder, last Fall the White House said the aim was to refill the reserve when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel. Since then oil prices had fallen far below without as much as a squeak from Biden’s energy guru, Hunter.
But that doesn’t mean the pathological liars in the presidency will stop lying about refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; in fact just the opposite… and mere days after the DOE again moved the goalposts to a June “refill“, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the US is preparing to buy up to a whopping 3 million barrels of crude oil – or one tanker’s worth – to begin refilling its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
After selling more than 200 million barrels from the emergency stockpile last year to curb high energy prices and arrest the collapse of Democratic approval ratings, the Energy Department plans to solicit offers to replenish the reserve, which has fallen to the lowest level since 1983, according to Bloomberg. Which would be believable if only it wasn’t one of the most recurring lie dispensed by an admin that views the price of gas like a hawk as if only gas prices will decide if the 80 year old Biden will get reelected. Of course, you will forgive us if we call even more bullshit from the admin that has taken lying to an artform, and which just last week drained 2.9 million barrels of oil from the SPR, long after it was supposed to have restarted refilling it.
In addition to direct purchases, the agency has said part of its strategy for refilling the reserve includes a return of oil from previous exchanges, and avoiding “unnecessary sales unrelated to supply disruptions.” The department successfully cancelled some 140 million barrels of oil sales mandated by Congress.
Last week, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the government would repurchase crude oil for the reserve after a congressionally mandated drawdown ends in June. She also claimed that the refill the SPR as soon as maintenance work is completed… or generally just kicking the can to doing anything at all.
Case in point: an earlier attempt to refill the reserve, via another ‘gargantuan’ 3 million barrel-purchase, was canceled by the Energy Department in January, saying the offers it received were either too expensive or didn’t meet other specifications. Both explanations are the kind of pure, unadulterated bullshit one has come to expect from the most corrupt administration in US history, and explains why not only Gulf nations but US energy companies are counting the days until the senile occupant of the White House is once again voted out (only this time the fake mail in ballots won’t keep him employed).
In the end, nothing will happen, or at best the White House will buy a few barrels here and there, and claim mission accomplished. Instead, the real buying will begin only when there is no choice – just after the next geopolitical shock – and when the price of one barrel is well in the triple digits.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0878 UP 0.0031
USA/ YEN 135.08 UP 0.500 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2508 UP 0.0062
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3500 DOWN .0022 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 22 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 38.38 PTS OR 1.17%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 238.05 PTS OR 0.81%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .10% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 343.89 PTS OR 1.75 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.38 PTS OR 1.17%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.10%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 238.03 PTS OR 0.81%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2015.05
silver:$24.02
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 102.34 DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s close.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.111% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.407 % UP 0 AND 3//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.376 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.186 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.307 UP 4 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0872 UP 0.0025 or 25 basis points
USA/Japan: 136.07 UP .487 OR YEN DOWN 49 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2518 UP .0072 OR 72 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3496
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP.(6.9545)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9616
TURKISH LIRA: 19.67 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.407…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.500% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.830 UP 5 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9926% DOWN 1 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 102.32 DOWN 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 23.08 points or 0.30%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 3.42 PTS OR 0.02%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 3.36 PTS OR 0.05%
Spain IBEX DOWN 32.60 PTS OR 0.35%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 101.86 PTS OR 0.37%
WTI Oil price 71.18 12: EST
Brent Oil: 75.18 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 79.20/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 27//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.307 UP 5 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.856 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0875 UP 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2528 DOWN .0082 or 82 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8490% UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 1356.04 DOWN .457 //YEN UP 46 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3472 DOWN .0051 CDN dollar, UP 51 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.04
Brent OIL: 75.17
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 3.500%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 3.839%
USA 2 YR BOND:UP 0 PTS AT 4.002%
USA dollar index: 102.26 DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.67
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79.15 DOWN 1 AND 23/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 47.98 PTS OR 0.14%
NASDAQ 100 UP 73.33 PTS OR 0.55%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.10 UP 0.07 PTS (0.41)%
GLD: $187.21 UP 0.40 OR 0.21%
SLV/ $22.10 UP 0.08 OR 0.36%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Banks & Bond Yields Jump On Goolsbee, Gensler, Biden, Bostic, & Bad Data
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 04:01 PM
Today’s terrible, horrible, no good Empire Fed Manufacturing survey pushed the US Macro Surprise Index into the red, extending an almost non-stop decline over the past 7 weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Debt Ceiling anxiety continues to soar with USA Sovereign risk remaining at record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
And the T-Bill curve incredibly discontinuous…
Stocks started off weak after Fed’s Goolsbee warned that SVB was watching the market and bet that the market was right (so lifted its rate hedges) as opposed to The Fed’s forecast (and subsequent actions).
Biden said he will meet Congressional leaders tomorrow (Tuesday) to discuss the debt ceiling and that seemed to send stocks higher around 1300ET (even though there was nothing new in that comment at all).
1325ET SEC’s Gensler said that there was no short-selling ban currently being weighed for US stocks (and rightly so because the last time they did that it triggered a massive wave of long liquidations).
1400ET Fed’s Bostic reconfirmed his ‘high for longer’ hawkish attitude by noting that he would probably vote to hold rates for now (but does not see cuts any time soon).
1410ET McCarthy warned that debt talks “nowhere near reaching a conclusion.”
Bear in mind that CNBC did its very best to spin some marginally positive comments by Paul Tudor Jones today as being wildly bullish… they were not.
Bostic and PTJ say ‘The Fed is done’ but Bostic sees rates here for a while with no cuts soon BUT PTJ sees recession in H2 (which suggests rate-cuts may be on the table). The STIRs market inched hawkishly towards Bostic and not PTJ today.
Source: Bloomberg
“Most Shorted” stocks soared almost 5 off Friday’s lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Juiced by multiple waves of 0-DTE positive delta pulses…
VIX1D tumbled back near recent lows as extreme-local event risk disappears…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional banks were the big gainers (because Friday’s deposit data showed more outflows?? or because no banks blew up this weekend? Or just a squeeze again)…
Which helped drive Small Caps to be the day’s winners among the US Majors. The Dow lagged (but closed marginally higher after being down 10 of the last 11 days)…
Treasuries were dumped again with the long-end weakest (30Y +5bps, 2Y +1bps), but note that when the crappy Empire Fed data hit, yields plunged…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields held at 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar drifted lower after two strong days…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced modestly on the day, back above $27,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold modestly extended its bounce off $2000 from last Friday…
Source: Bloomberg
And oil prices jumped today with WTI bouncing after tagging a $69 handle…
Finally, “you are here”…
Source: Bloomberg
Just remember, it’s different this time, right!
b) early morning trading: DEBT CEILING
end
II) USA DATA/
Fed H.8.1. report. This data is released every FRIDAY evening at 4;30 pm
USA bank deposits continue to outflow. The big news comes from small bank loans which collapsed in this H 8 1 report
(zerohedge)
US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue, Small Bank Loans Collapse
FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2023 – 04:39 PM
As we detailed extensively last week, the big headline from The Fed’s H.8 report was the significant divergence between seasonally- and non-seasonally-adjusted commercial bank deposit data (inflows for the former and big outflows for the latter).
Yesterday’s continued surge of inflows into money market funds and increased usage of The Fed’s bank bailout facilities set the scene for the ugly data from last week’s NSA deposits to accelerate.
According to the latest H8 report from The Fed, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US Commercial Bank deposits fell by $13.8 billion during the week ended 5/3 – the second straight week…
Source: Bloomberg
However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) decreased $25.4bn last week (during the week-ending 5/3), after rising $10.92 billion the week before. That is the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) jumped $63.8 billion (the first weekly jump in 4 weeks)…
Source: Bloomberg
And judging by yesterday’s money market inflows, the deposit outflows continued this week (remember, deposit data is lagged a week to money market and Fed balance sheet data)…
Source: Bloomberg
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, Large and Small banks both saw outflows last week, foreign banks inflows…
Source: Bloomberg
Large banks saw the biggest outflows:
- Large Banks -$17.2bn
- Small Banks -$8.2bn
- Foreign Banks +$4.9bn
Source: Bloomberg
However, before we move on, it is key to note that there was a literally massive revision to all of these time series this week with around $100 billion of deposits removed from Small Banks and ‘adjusted’ up to Large Banks…
On the other side of the ledger, Commercial bank lending tumbled $15.7 billion in the week ended May 3rd after increasing $41.9 billion the prior week, according to seasonally adjusted data. Small Bank loans fell $13.6bn…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, in case you still believe the worst is over, regional banks had another ugly week, pushing their relative strength to its weakest on record relative top the S&P 500…
Source: Bloomberg
The good news is that Small Banks moved very modestly further away from the critical ‘reserve constraint’ line last week…
Source: Bloomberg
This data does not include (given the lag) the time period when PACW described losing 10% of its deposits and the size of the revisions make the data questionable at best.
Even The Fed Whisperer knows things aren’t good…
END
This is big: The New York Manufacturing Index collapsed in April
(zerohedge)
Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapsed In April – Biggest Drop Ever (Ex-COVID)
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 08:58 AM
After the stunningly surprising upside surge in April, The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey has collapsed back to reality in May, crashing 42.6 points to -31.8 from +10.8 (dramatically worse than the -19.0 expected). Outside of the COVID lockdowns, this is the biggest MoM drop ever…
Source: Bloomberg
end
This ought to give you a good picture on the deteriorating conditions of the USA economy
(zerohedge)
Soaring Rates Lead To Slowest Growth In Household Debt In Two Years As Mortgage Originations Plummet
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 12:45 PM
Total household debt rose by $148 billion, or 0.9%, to $17.05 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
This was the weakest quarterly debt increase in two years…
… hardly a good look for an economy that is entirely credit-driven, and may explain why the Citi US eco surprise index just dipped negative after a 4 month stretch in the green.
A detailed look at current debt balances by component:
- Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports increased by $121 billion during the first quarter of 2023 and stood at $12.04 trillion at the end of March, a modest increase.
- Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $3 billion, the fourth consecutive quarterly increase following a nearly 13 year declining trend; the outstanding HELOC balance stands at $339 billion.
- Credit card balances were flat in the first quarter, at $986 billion, bucking the typical trend of balance declines in first quarters.
- Auto loan balances increased by $10 billion in the first quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011.
- Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $5 billion.
- Student loan balances now stand at $1.604 trillion, up by $9 billion from the previous quarter. In total, non-housing balances grew by $24 billion
While total debt hit another record high, the impact of soaring interest rates was felt with originations sharply lower across the board:
- Mortgage originations, which include refinances, dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2023 to $324 billion, the lowest level seen since 2014, a quarter that was unusually low due to the “taper tantrum”
- The median credit score for newly originated mortgages decreased slightly to 765.
- What is remarkable is the collapse in mortgage originations in the highest FICO score bucket, which drove the housing market since 2020, and which has now cratered.
- The volume of newly originated auto loans was $162 billion, a reduction from pandemic-era highs but still elevated compared to pre-Covid volumes.
- The median credit score on newly originated auto loans ticked up 10 points, to 721, suggesting some tightening.
- Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $119 billion, representing a 2.7% increase from Q4 2022 levels.
- Limits on home equity lines of credit were up by $9 billion in the first quarter.
Also not surprising is that in a time of near record high rates, the share of current debt becoming delinquent increased for most debt types. The delinquency transition rate for credit cards and auto loans increased by 0.6 and 0.2%, respectively approaching or surpassing their pre-pandemic levels.
With countless debt-easing measures having been implemented in recent years (mostly post-covid) soon coming to an end, the mean-reversion here will be brutal.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post taking a closer look at housing equity and mortgage refinancing as tools for funding consumer spending. Fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the pandemic refinancing boom, during which $430 billion of home equity was extracted through cash-out refinances. About 64% of these mortgages were “rate refinances”, resulting in an average payment reduction of $220 monthly for those borrowers.
“The mortgage refinancing boom is over, but its impact will be seen for decades to come,” said Andrew Haughwout, Director of Household and Public Policy Research at the New York Fed. “As a result of significant equity drawdowns, mortgage borrowers reduced their annual payments by tens of billions of dollars, providing additional funding for spending or paydowns in other debt categories.”
The Quarterly Report includes a summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points. Overarching trends from the Report’s summary include:
Housing Debt
- There was $324 billion in newly originated mortgage debt in 2023Q1. With the pandemic-era refinance boom over and a slowdown in home sales, reported refinance and purchase mortgage originations both declined substantially in the first quarter.
- Although the foreclosure moratoria have been lifted nationally, new foreclosures have stayed very low since the CARES Act moratorium was put into place. About 35,000 individuals had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports, roughly flat with the fourth quarter.
Student Loans
- Outstanding student loan debt stood at $1.604 trillion in 2023 Q1.
- Less than 1% of aggregate student debt was 90+ days delinquent or in default in 2023 Q1, a small decline from the previous quarter. Delinquency rates fell substantially in the previous quarter due to the implementation of the Fresh Start program, which made previously defaulted loan balances current.
Unfortunately, the party is almost over as student loan payments are set to restart (by August 30th at the latest), around the time the Supreme Court will rule that Biden’s $20K forgiveness plan is unconstitutional. In short, the student loan delinquencies are about to come back with a historic vengeance.
Putting it all together: boomers who used the covid crisis to refi their homes into a record low mortgage rate and paid down their debt are sitting pretty; meanwhile millennials and Gen Zers who are stuck renting and whose student loans are about to kick in again…
… are facing a world of pain, especially those who are already not current on their auto loans.
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There Goes The US Consumer: Card Data Reveals First Drop In Household Spending In Two Years As Upper-Income Wages Tumble, Unemployment Benefits Soar
There Goes The US Consumer: Card Data Reveals First Drop In Household Spending In Two Years As…
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
DEBT CEILING//MISH SHEDLOCK
Please take note on what Mish is saying
(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)
President Biden And The Need To Do Something… Just Not Now
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 11:45 AM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Last week, President Biden reiterated his willingness to negotiate over the budget but not the debt ceiling. It’s a lie…
Willingness to Do Nothing
On May 9, the Washington Post reported White House to Start Budget Talks with GOP as Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears.
The catch was only after a clean debt ceiling passed with no restrictions.
On May 11, Roll Call reported White House meeting delayed amid staff talks on budget, debt
More Red Ink
On May 12, the Associated Press reported More red ink: Congressional budget agency projects bigger deficits as debt talks continue
The National Economic Council Chimes In
On May 14, Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, former Vice-Chair of the Fed chimed in on Face the Nation. Brainard Says Budget Deal Talks Constructive, Bank System Sound.
“The staff is very engaged. I would characterize the engagement as serious, as constructive,” Brainard told CBS’s Face The Nation on Sunday, warning that a default would be “catastrophic” for the economy.
Once again we are told the banking system is sound. Lovely.
And just how engaged is everyone?
The leaders were supposed to meet again Friday but delayed that session to allow talks to play out, and cast that development as a sign of progress, not a setback.
I am pleased to report we are making progress by canceling meetings and cancelling meetings will allow talks to play out.
Dealing With Repeat Liars
The amusing thing is Biden says he recognizes a need to cut the budget.
But one thing we have repeatedly learned is that his words are meaningless. He pledged to be a moderate Democrat, he pledged to be a consensus builder, he pledged to not carry on the divisive tactics of President Trump.
And just ask Joe Biden what happened to his energy agreement once he signed off on the absurdly-named Inflation Reduction Act.
In an op-ed to the Wall Street Journal, Joe Manchin says he was betrayed by President Biden.
On March 29, I commented Senator Joe Manchin Feels Betrayed by President Biden, Told Ya So Joe
Just Not Now
After Biden modified the IRA rules by executive order, I noted The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion
One of Senator Manchin’s main concerns was the cost of the program. That cost went up over 2.5 times and Manchin did not even get what was pledged on pipelines.
So when president Biden says he is willing to negotiate on debt but only after the ceiling is raised, rest assured it’s a lie.
There is still no plan on the table, but meetings are supposed to resume this week. Hmm, what happened to the idea we were making progress by cancelling meetings?
McCarthy’s Key Demands
- Claw back unspent Covid-19 funds.
- Impose tougher work requirements for recipients of food stamps and other government aid.
- Halt Biden’s plans to forgive up to $20,000 in student loans.
- End many of the landmark renewable energy tax breaks Biden signed into law last year. It would tack on a sweeping Republican bill to boost oil, gas and coal production.
The first three points should not be the least bit controversial. Point 3 will happen via the Supreme Court, anyway.
I have been arguing for tougher rules on government aid for a long time.
Limit Save Grow Act
The CBO estimates a 10-year savings of $4.8 trillion. It would be higher if the IRS enforcement portion is removed.
But supposedly there is nothing to negotiate.
Hello President Biden, the Ball Is In Your Court
On May 8, I commented Hello President Biden, the Ball Is In Your Court
The debt ceiling clock is ticking away. But the onus is now on Democrats to so something.
In retrospect, I stand corrected. President Biden took the ball and left the stadium.
* * *
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END
Biggest Fear Among US Business Leaders Is “Catastrophic” Debt Default: White House Economic Adviser
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 01:05 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
A key aide to President Joe Biden said Sunday that American business leaders’ chief concern is not inflation or recession but the looming threat of a “catastrophic” government debt default.
Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the country’s top business leaders have told her that their biggest concern is failure on the part of lawmakers on Capitol Hill to avert a default of the nation’s debt.
Talks about raising the U.S. government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling have made little progress in Washington. Biden and the Democrats continue to insist on a “clean” bill to lift the borrowing limit with no preconditions while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and the Republicans have put forward a proposal that pairs lifting the cap by $1.5 trillion with $4.5 trillion in spending cuts.
“When I talk to CEOs, to business leaders around the country, they tell me that things are actually going very well,” said Brainard, who served as vice chair of the Federal Reserve before being appointed by Biden to lead the White House economic advisory panel.
“But their biggest concern is that Congress might fail to prevent default and that would be catastrophic. It would lead to higher borrowing costs for cars, for mortgages, for small businesses, even for the U.S. government,” she said, echoing concerns raised by other Biden administration officials that a default would lead borrowing costs to surge and be a major headwind for the economy.
Last week, Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), told CNN that various types of loans would, in the event of a default, become more expensive.
“It’s a big worry. Every family should be concerned,” Chopra told the outlet.
Wall Street, too, has been growing increasingly nervous amid the debt ceiling standoff. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser saying that the negotiations on raising the ceiling are “more worrying” than previous episodes. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is convening weekly meetings to prepare for what could be a major event that shakes markets.
“The closer you get to it, you will have panic,” Dimon told Bloomberg TV last week.
“Markets will get volatile, maybe the stock market will go down, the Treasury markets will have their own problems.”
While Biden has said he’s “absolutely certain” that the country will avert a default, time is running out to find a fix.
Worries about the debt ceiling standoff come amid ongoing concerns about inflation and recession.
Recession Odds Rise to Highest in 40 Years
Slowing economic growth in the United States appears increasingly likely to accelerate into a full-blown recession.
The probability that the country will enter a recession within the next year has risen to 68.2 percent, according to the New York Fed, which is the highest level since 1982.
The Fed’s recession risk indicator is now greater than it was in November 2007, not long before the subprime crisis, when it stood at 40 percent.
Amid the banking sector turmoil sparked by the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, economists at the Federal Reserve expect that a U.S. recession would be shallow.
“Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years,” stated the minutes from a March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
A recent poll showed that most Americans believe that the country is headed for a recession—or has already fallen into one.
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey showed that 69 percent of U.S. adults have negative views about the current economic environment, which is the highest figure since the survey began 17 years ago.
Inflation Expectations Jump
Several recent data points suggest that inflation has become a more entrenched problem that many believe.
Import prices rose sharply in April after falling in March, while two different inflation gauges (consumer prices and business input costs) accelerated last month despite the Fed’s yearlong campaign of interest rate hikes. Also, long-run inflation expectations have jumped to their highest level in 12 years.
U.S. import prices rose 0.4 percent last month, after falling 0.8 percent in March, according to data released Friday by the Department of Labor.
Other price data released this week—the Consumer Price Index and the Purchasing Price Index—both showed inflation accelerating on a month-over-month basis.
And long-run inflation expectations rose to a reading of 3.2 percent, the highest since 2011, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday.
In a sign that concerns about stagflation are coming to the forefront once again, consumer expectations about the strength of the economy one year ahead plummeted by 23 percent.
“Long-run expectations slid by 16 percent as well, indicating that consumers are worried that any economic downturn will not be brief,” Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers director, said in a statement.
Stagflation is a combination of slowing growth and high inflation, a toxic brew that tends to be challenging for Fed policymakers to deal with as a remedy, because one makes the other worse.
“Very stagflationary print from UMich survey,” said Craig Shapiro, a marco advisor and portfolio manager at LaDuc Trading, in a Twitter post summarizing his take on the University of Michigan data.
“The University of Michigan survey data disappointed on both US consumer sentiment and long-term inflation expectations. At the headline level, look for this to fuel some #stagflation worries,” Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic adviser, said in a Twitter post.
While macroeconomic data don’t show an imminent recession—the Federal Reserve Bank of the Atlanta’s real-time GDP estimate notched a reading of 2.7 percent on May 8—consumer sentiment fell sharply in April, suggesting Americans are souring on the economic outlook.
“Consumer sentiment tumbled 9 percent amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June,” Hsu said.
While U.S. consumers have shown resilience despite recession fears and high inflation, Hsu warned that their rising anticipation of a recession will lead them to rein in spending when signs of economic weakness emerge.
Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for around two-thirds of economic growth.
Michael Harnett/Benzinga
If the debt ceiling dispute triggers an abrupt risk-off in financial markets, the Federal Reserve will then resume quantitative easing, as the Bank of England did in September, said Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett in a recent report.
Cracks are emerging in the bond market, showing growing investor anxiety over the debt ceiling standoff, as one-month T-bill yields surged to over 5.5% and one-year insurance costs against a U.S. default — commonly known as credit default swap (CDS) — hit a record high of 177 points.
On Tuesday, Benzinga highlighted how the cost of insurance against the default of a five-year U.S. Treasury rose to the highest since 2009.
The yield on a U.S. Treasury bill maturing in one month soared to 5.69% Friday, up 18 basis points in a day, and surging to the highest ever with data going back to 2002.
Today Vs. 2008
Fears have not migrated from fixed income to the equities market because other asset classes are discounting a Fed dovish tilt, Hartnett says.
In the two months following Bear Stearns’ collapse in March 2008, the S&P 500 index, which is closely monitored by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), increased 11% and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 15%. Two months after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the S&P 500 is up 7% and the Nasdaq 100 is up 10%. However, the analyst noted how the two major averages reversed in the second half of 2008.
Differently from then, defensives are outperforming cyclicals — REITs, banks, energy, and small caps are now marked with a ‘hard landing’.
How To Trade A Recession
Hartnett recommends buying cyclicals if non-farm payroll NFP comes negative.
As in 2008, a recession will wreak havoc on credit and technology. Investors may wait for a negative payroll report as a buy catalyst for cyclical equities in 2023.
end
OHIO
More Ohio families seek food banks
(zerohedge)
“It Scares Me To Death”: More Ohio Families Turn To Food Banks Amid Cost-of-Living Crisis
FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2023 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),Alongside volunteers Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver AJ Green and his mother Dora Green packs donated goods at the Freestore Foodbank in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Jan. 23, 2020. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images for Campbell’s Chunky Soup)
Food banks across Ohio have seen a surge in demand, with some running at double capacity amid increasing food insecurity prompted in part by an end to COVID-19 pandemic-era aid, according to experts.
The Mid-Ohio Food Collective, a food bank providing a free “grocery store experience” as well as nutritious meals to thousands of people is just one of many to see a surge in visitors amid a cost-of-living crisis.
According to its website, the food bank is already providing 170,000 meals each day for hungry people in central and eastern Ohio, but officials said that number has increased dramatically in the past year.
“Right now we’re running 47 percent higher in ’23 than we did, you know, a year ago,” Matt Habash, CEO of the Mid-Ohio Food Collective, told ABC News. “And I thought it would drop after the pandemic but I don’t think there’s any end in sight.”
“It scares me to death,” Habash added.
Habash said he believes part of the increased demand is owing to the phasing out of pandemic-era relief programs like stimulus checks, child tax credits, and extra food assistance, which have come to an end along with the national public health emergency.
Inflation has further added strain to household budgets.
While the U.S. annual inflation rate slowed to 4.9 percent in April, down from 5 percent in March, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show, groceries are now 23 percent more expensive than before the start of the pandemic.Ministry lead Gloria Banks organizes the food pantry ministry building area at Friendship Baptist Church in Yorba Linda, Calif., on April 5, 2022. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
More Americans Facing Food Insecurity
Amid economic volatility, roughly 24.6 million adults didn’t have enough to eat in early April compared to 16.7 million the same month two years ago, the Census Bureau estimates.
The Ohio Association of Foodbanks is another organization that has seen a sharp increase in Americans experiencing food insecurity.
The association, which represents the state’s 12 Feeding America food banks and their 3,600-member hunger relief programs, said in a May 4 press release (pdf) that families across the state are becoming increasingly more vulnerable amid low wages and soaring inflation.
“They are worried about inflation and high costs, racking up credit card debt to afford basic needs, and turning to foodbanks at levels we did not see even at the height of the pandemic – at levels we have never experienced,” said Lisa Hamler-Fugitt, the association’s executive director.
“Just two months ago, pandemic-era Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit boosts ended. This change took $126 million per month in grocery-buying power out of the pockets of 1.5 million Ohioans,” Hamler-Fugitt said. “An average 3-person household lost about $200 per month in food assistance, overnight.”
The association added that it has spoken extensively with Ohioans about how the drastic drop in SNAP has impacted their mental and physical health.
Elsewhere, the Community Kitchen Columbus, which provides food to vulnerable members of the community, has seen demand for food soar so high that they are now looking to open another facility to cater to those in dire need.Volunteers with masks stuff boxes for Thanksgiving at the Second Harvest Food Bank in Irvine, Calif., on Nov. 19, 2020. (Drew Van Voorhis/The Epoch Times)
Working Families Turn to Food Banks
“The misconception that a lot of people carry is that it’s only the homeless, that it’s always the people who are on drugs and alcohol [that visit the kitchen],” the organization’s president, MJ McCleskey, told ABC News.
“We do see a large population of that but there’s a lot of families, working families that are in need of food. They’re not homeless, they’re not couch surfing, they actually have a place,” she said.
It comes as a new study on food insecurity from the Center for Community Solutions found that roughly one in eight Ohioans are not always able to put food on the table for themselves and their families.
The findings are based on a compilation of surveys conducted over the last three years among just under 2,100 individuals across northeast Ohio.
It found that around 12 percent of respondents said they are unable to always afford food, mirroring similar research conducted by Feeding America on food insecurity in Ohio.
Additional research from the Center for Community Solutions found that 14.6 percent of older adults living in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, said they have had to spend less on things like medication or food to pay for housing costs. Another 24.5 percent of respondents in Lorain County said they believe someone in their household will likely need to turn to a food bank in the coming year.
“That somebody is struggling with food insecurity, we can’t tell by looking at someone. We can’t tell by knowing what their job is or what their situation is,” said Emily Muttillo, director of research for the Center for Community Solutions.
Muttillo noted that the situation for many Ohioans has likely worsened now that the emergency SNAP allotments are over.
“This is sort of a hidden struggle for many people and so it’s something that often goes overlooked,” she said.
end
CALIFORNIA
California’s deficit deepens to $32 billion a 14 year high.
(zerohedge)
California’s Deficit Deepens To $32 Billion (14-Year-High)… And That’s Before Reparations
FRIDAY, MAY 12, 2023 – 07:20 PM
California is now facing a $32 billion budget deficit, as the state faces a much deeper hole than previously projected, Bloomberg reports.
“We are walking into a budget where we need to maintain our prudence,” said Governor Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday, warning that a recession could worsen the financial situation in the years to come.
“That is an uncertainty that we must take very soberly and seriously as it relates to macro economic headwinds,” he added.
The expected shortfall is $9.5 billion worse than a $22.5 billion January estimate, according to figures released today, and will be the biggest deficit since 2010…
Newsom proposed a $224.1 billion general-fund budget for the fiscal year starting on the 1st of July, according to the report.
Revenue has been hurt by the sinking fortunes of California’s wealthiest residents, who shoulder a disproportionate share of the tax burden. Roughly half of the state’s personal income taxes coming from the top 1% of earners.
Thousands of workers have been laid off from California-based tech giants including Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Twitter. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which mainly catered to the tech and venture capital sectors, along with two other California-based regional lenders earlier this year adds to the economic turbulence. -Bloomberg
That said, the deficit is comparatively small vs. the cash crunch faced by the state during the last session, but this time Newsom will need to persuade Democrat lawmakers to make deep cuts – something which doesn’t come naturally to tax-and-spend liberals.
Meanwhile, deadlines to file and pay taxes were extended by six months to October 16 in most counties in the state due to the severe winter storms earlier this year.
State legislators – who must now negotiate over potential cuts to the budget – have until June 15 to pass one or they forfeit their pay for each day they are late.
Earlier this year Newsom touted ‘transformative investments’ in housing, education, childcare, health care and climate programs as part of his preliminary spending plan.
“This was not an easy budget, but I hope you see we will try to do our best to hold the line and take care of the most vulnerable and most needy, but still maintain prudence,” said Newsom.
Is it any wonder, Newsom is quickly (and carefully) sidestepping the $800 billion in reparations costs that he has implicitly promised California’s black residents, preferriung instead to remind citizens that “its about more than just cash payments.”
We suspect, there may well be a few (million) disillusioned voters who feel like they were promised cash for being black.
As one minister declared at the hearing last week, “Tell Governor Newsom we’re coming. He knows me.”
Did the virtue-signaling golden-boy just hit a reality wall?
END
New York City
New York City converts hotels to shelters to accommodate the huge influx of illegal immigrants
(Oraiopoulos via The Epoch Times),
NYC Converts Hotels To Shelters To Accommodate Expected Influx Of Illegal Immigrants
SUNDAY, MAY 14, 2023 – 07:30 PM
Authored Efthymis Oraiopoulos via The Epoch Times,
The historic Roosevelt Hotel in midtown Manhattan—shuttered three years ago—is being reopened to accommodate an anticipated influx of illegal immigrants just as other New York City hotels are being converted to emergency shelters.
Mayor Eric Adams announced Saturday that the city will use the Roosevelt to eventually provide as many as 1,000 rooms for migrants who are expected to arrive in the coming weeks because of the expiration of pandemic-era rules, known collectively as Title 42, that had allowed federal officials to turn away asylum seekers from the U.S. border with Mexico.
Across the city, hotels like the Roosevelt are being transformed into emergency shelters, many of them within walking distance from Times Square, the World Trade Center memorial site, and the Empire State Building.
Adams says the city is running out of room for illegal immigrants and has sought help from the state and federal governments.
He said New York in recent weeks has been seeing 500 illegal immigrant arrivals per day. More than 61,000 have sought services from the city in the past 12 months.
On Thursday he said that once the rules change, “we could potentially get thousands of people a day in our city.”
Title 42 is a law enacted in 1944 allowing the federal government to curb immigration to protect public health. The Trump administration imposed these restrictions at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic three years ago.
The restrictions of Title 42 ended on May 11 and more than 10,000 illegal migrants per day are expected to cross the southern border.
Migrants are seen after crossing the Rio Bravo river with the intention of turning themselves in to U.S. Border Patrol agents, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on May 9, 2023. (Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters)
New York City officials are expecting to receive busloads of migrants from Texas and other border states. The officials have explored housing the newcomers in airplane hangars, a race track, gymnasiums, or even tents in Central Park. Others could wind up on the streets, advocates feared, despite the city’s court-ordered commitment to provide all residents with access to a place to stay.
Adams, a Democrat, temporarily suspended on Wednesday portions of New York’s law guaranteeing shelter to all residents. Adams signed an executive order so that the city has no obligation to meet a strict deadline for providing that shelter.
A few hours later, he sent roughly two dozen illegal immigrants on a bus to a hotel in the upstate town of Newburgh, overriding fierce backlash from local leaders.
Many illegal immigrants residing in New York have arrived from Texas, after Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott started sending them there on buses, last year.
Several other Democrat-leaning cities, including Chicago and Denver, have also grappled with a growing number of illegal immigrants and how to provide them with food, medicine, and shelter without significant federal funding.
According to a New York Times report, even the owner of the iconic Flatiron Building in Manhattan was asked to turn the skyscraper into a shelter, but he declined.
At a news conference Thursday, Manuel Castro, the commissioner for immigrant affairs, said the city “no longer can physically accommodate people that request emergency shelter.”
The city has also faced pushback in its early efforts to escort illegal immigrants out of the city. In Rockland County, local officials successfully secured a temporary restraining order banning the city from sending illegal immigrants to a hotel.
After two dozen illegal immigrants arrived in a Newburgh hotel on Thursday, Orange County Executive Steven Neuhaus, a Republican, blamed Adams for a “disorganized disaster,” vowing to secure his own restraining order.
Security stands at the doors of The Crossroads Hotel where two busloads of illegal immigrants arrived hours earlier in Newburgh, N.Y., on May 11, 2023. (John Minchillo/AP Photo)
Speaking to reporters Thursday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said the city faced an “untenable situation.” But she said she also understood the stress faced by county executives and their decision not to support the buses.
“Our view is to continue working with the counties, but really focusing on continuing to support Mayor Adams because he’s receiving the brunt of most of this,” she said.
Adams has also accused the White House of “turning its back on New York City,” asking that work permits be given to illegal immigrants to solve the problem.
Adams said in April that the migrant influx into New York could cost the city more than $4 billion, at a time when the city is already facing a major budget shortfall.
New Regulation on Illegal Immigrants
The United States rolled out a regulation on May 10 that presumes most migrants are ineligible for asylum if they passed through other nations without seeking protection elsewhere first, or if they failed to use legal pathways for U.S. entry.
The rule, which was set to come into effect on Thursday and to expire in two years, will apply to the vast majority of non-Mexican migrants seeking asylum since they typically pass through multiple countries en route to the United States.
Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council, a union representing 18,000 Border Patrol agents and support personnel, told The Epoch Times as many as 13,000 illegal migrants a day are expected to cross with the collapse of Title 42 at 11:59 p.m. on May 11.
“I would say that we’re looking at a minimum of 13,000,” Judd said on May 10. “We’ve arrested more than 10,000 people per day, for the last three days, and that number just continues to go up.”
Those estimates could reach 16,000 per day if nothing is done to halt the incursion.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said migrants who cross the border illegally without being properly processed will be ineligible for asylum.
But, Judd said, the Biden administration is misleading the public.
“That’s a half-truth at best,” he said.
While people caught illegally crossing the border will be told they can’t claim asylum under the new rule, they will still have the right to appeal, and because the border patrol can’t hold them until their appeal hearings, they will be released into the United States.
“They’re telling the American people what the intention of the rule is, but they’re not telling them the practical application of the rule,” he said.
Migrants wait in line to enter the United States from Tijuana, Mexico, on May 11, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
Detention facilities are already three times over capacity, leaving the border patrol no choice but to release illegal immigrants.
“We’re doing mass releases,” he said. “Now, it’s just mass releases to the street because we can’t hold this many people.”
More than two years of lax border policies have led to this massive influx of illegal migrants and strained the system, turning agents who once patrolled the southern border into desk clerks who process asylum claims, he said.
“It pulls resources from patrolling the border,” he said. “That’s what arrests mean to us.”
At 10,000 arrests a day, about 70 percent of border patrol agents are doing administrative duties, he said, adding the Biden administration prefers to use the word apprehensions “to make it sound nicer.”
end
BALTIMORE
Decades old Baltimore business closes shop because of crime
(zerohedge)
“It’s Just Not Safe”: Decades-Old Baltimore Business Closes Shop Because Of Crime, Blames Democrats
SUNDAY, MAY 14, 2023 – 09:00 PM
In cities stretching from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, New York City, Chicago, and numerous cities along the West Coast, progressive leadership has failed to enforce law and order. These crime-ridden metropolises are experiencing an exodus of businesses of all sizes due to a tidal wave of thefts.
The latest incident comes as a mom-and-pop business, operating in Baltimore City for more than four decades, has been forced to shutter operations because of numerous armed robberies.
Jody Rosoff, the owner of Doc’s Smoke Shop in Baltimore’s Highlandtown neighborhood, told local media Fox 45 that she has been robbed at gunpoint for the second time in six months and just recently had to shoot an intruder.
“This is our second armed robbery in six months,” Rosoff said.
She said her business has been operating in the city for decades and now has to close up shop because “it’s not safe for anybody on this street that’s a small business owner.”
“We have been here in the city for 44 years. For 44 years, we’ve paid property taxes, retail sales taxes, and we have employed people. It’s just not safe. It’s not safe for my employees or for me. It’s not safe for anybody on this street that’s a small business owner. We can’t afford armed security. The business just isn’t there.”
It turns out the robber was a convicted felon with a lengthy record spanning more than two decades. She pointed to the city’s progressive leadership for “soft on crime policies” that keep dangerous people on the street.
“Shame on the mayor, shame on the judges, and the prosecutors and our former state’s attorney for letting this happen to Baltimore City,” Rosoff said.
Meanwhile, in the city’s downtown district, shootings, carjackings, muggings, and out-of-control packs of teenagers are wreaking havoc.
Why Democrat leadership has let the city deteriorate so badly is beyond comprehension… There is no accountability with leadership’s failed policies. However, businesses are leaving (read: “Entire Downtown Is Effectively Dead:” Baltimore City Descends Further Into Turmoil).
Beyond Baltimore, businesses across NYC, Chicago, Portland, and San Francisco, to name a few, are leaving as crime surges. While Democrats don’t want to be accountable for their failed policies, a symptom of such failure is the exodus of companies (as well as people).
The exodus of liberal cities is an ongoing theme post-virus pandemic and will continue until law and order is re-established. Just look at the chaos earlier last week in San Francisco.
Democrats have transformed parts of this country into a clown world by abandoning law and order.
end
USA
You know that the economy is hitting a brick wall when you see the beginning of liquidation wave. Today Tiger Global is preparing to dump a huge number of start ups on the secondar market.
(zerohedge)
Beginning Of Liquidation Wave? Tiger Global Prepares To Dump A Segment Of Its Startup Portfolio
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 12:05 PM
After a tumultuous 2022, Tiger Global Management has decided to dump hundreds of millions of dollars worth of private startups into the secondary markets, according to the Financial Times, citing people familiar with the upcoming move.
Chase Coleman’s $51 billion hedge fund has hired an adviser to explore options to sell some of its privately held companies in the secondary markets. The people said this was the best way for Coleman to return a portion of the money to shareholders.
“Talks are at an early stage, and potential buyers have said that any deal would probably be complicated by difficulties valuing Tiger’s private holdings, which include stakes in companies such as payments business Stripe, US software group Databricks, and China’s ByteDance,” the people said.
This comes as New York-based Tiger tumbled 56%, and the long-only fund plunged 67% in 2022, cementing its worst annual performance ever. FT’s source doesn’t specify if the selling is due to Tiger facing increasing redemptions, though it’s apparent liquidity is needed.
For Tiger and many of its peers, buying startups and then dumping them on public markets was an easy business model when the Federal Reserve pinned interest rates at the zero lower bound for a near a decade. However, with slumping mergers and acquisitions activity and a deep freeze in IPOs and SPACs, fewer companies are going public, indicating that Tiger is holding a bag of startups that it bought at lofty valuations.
As long as the Fed’s crusade to fight inflation remains in play, turmoil in capital markets will persist, which spells bad news for Tiger’s ability to offload startups at high valuations.
Financial Times pointed out a majority of Tiger’s assets are tied up in private companies. And this higher interest rate environment depresses valuations and makes it harder for cash-burning startups to raise additional money.
And so the great liquidation might have just kicked off as Tiger allegedly needs cash. Its exposure to illiquid venture capital bets that were made at high valuations has been its downfall. The music might have just stopped.
end
USA
Rents on the verge of its first annual drop since COVID
(zerohedge)
US Rents On Verge Of First Annual Drop Since Covid Crash Amid Supply Glut
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 – 09:55 AM
While we already know that according to much-delayed CPI data, annual shelter inflation has just peaked at just under 9% annual growth, and will now be trending lower for the next 18-24 months.
But while the roughly 12 month delayed CPI data brought some good news, there was much better news in the latest monthly Rental Market Tracker from Redfin, which unlike the CPI, provides a real-time snapshot of the rental market. What it shows is that not only have rents peaked, but the median U.S. asking rent is about to turn negative on an annual basis, having risen just 0.3% year over year to $1,967 in April. That’s the 11th-consecutive month of slowing growth, and is the first (effectively) unchanged print since the covid crash in March 2020. It compares with a revised increase of 1.4% one month earlier and a 16% increase one year earlier. More importantly, extending the current trendline suggests that rents will now decline on an annual basis for the foreseeable future.
On a month-over-month basis, the median asking rent fell 0.2%, which is notable because rents typically rise at this time of year.
According to Redfin, the slowdown in rent growth is mostly due to a supply glut in the form of an expanding pool of rentals to choose from: “The homebuilding boom over the last decade-and-a-half has increased the number of new rentals on the market, and landlords are now grappling with rising vacancies.”
Completed residential projects in buildings with five or more units jumped 60% year over year on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 484,000in March—the most recent month for which data is available. There are only three other instances since the 1980s when completions were higher.
Meanwhile, the rental vacancy rate ticked up to 6.4% in the first quarter—the highest level in two years.
“The balance of power in the rental market is tipping back in tenants’ favor as supply catches up with demand. That’s easing affordability challenges and giving renters a little wiggle room to negotiate in some areas,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “The market has become more balanced, but the scales could tip back in favor of landlords if homebuilders pump the brakes on new construction in response to slowing rent growth.”
Rent growth is also decelerating because many people are opting to stay put. Fewer people are moving due to economic uncertainty, slowing household formation, still-high rental costs in many markets, and the rising cost of other goods and services due to inflation.
Where rents are falling the fastest.
In Austin, TX, the median asking rent fell 14.3% year over year in April—the largest decrease among the major U.S. metropolitan areas Redfin analyzed. Next came Phoenix (-9.6%), Las Vegas (-7.1%), Oklahoma City, OK (-6.4%) and Chicago (-6%). All but two of the 10 metros with the largest declines are in Sun Belt states.
- Austin, TX (-14.3%)
- Phoenix, AZ (-9.6%)
- Las Vegas, NV (-7.1%)
- Oklahoma City, OK (-6.4%)
- Chicago, IL (-6%)
- Birmingham, AL (-4.5%)
- Sacramento, CA (-4%)
- Memphis, TN (-3.6%)
- Seattle, WA (-3.2%)
- Dallas, TX (-2.8%)
The Sun Belt exploded in popularity during the pandemic as scores of remote workers moved there in search of relatively affordable housing and warm weather. Rents surged and are now coming back down to earth as supply catches up to demand. Much of the nation’s homebuilding in recent years has taken place in the Sun Belt. Phoenix and Austin both ranked in the top five metros with the highest number of multifamily building permits in March.
“A lot of renters took on roommates or moved in with family when rents increased dramatically during the pandemic, which left more rentals and fewer renters needing places,” said Van Welborn, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Phoenix. “Landlords who increased prices too quickly are now feeling the impact as the market calms and rents decrease to more reasonable levels.”
Welborn said the short-term rental market is also cooling due to an oversaturation of Airbnbs and new restrictions on hosts. The silver lining for landlords in Phoenix is that seasonal renters will still pay a premium in the winter, and the local job market is holding up—especially with a large new semiconductor plant moving in.
Finally, here is a breakdown of Median Asking Rents by Metro Area in April 2023
END
NEW YORK, SAN FRANCISCO/
/office buildings are an absolute ghost town(zerohedge)
New York, San Francisco Office Buildings Are Absolute Ghost Towns
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 – 11:00 AM
It’s no secret that commercial real estate is in bad shape across the globe…
- “It’s Going To Be Ugly”: Commercial Real Estate Predictions Turn Dire
- Morgan Stanley Slides As Credit Loss Provisions Surge Due To Commercial Real Estate Exposure
- State Of Commercial Real Estate: Sharp Spike In Office Delinquency Rates Coming
- CRE Crisis Crosses Atlantic: Sweden’s Largest Commercial Landlord SBB Implodes After Getting Junked, Halting Dividend
- European Commercial Real Estate Values May Fall Up To 40%: Citi
Things are so bad, in fact, that 26 Empire State Buildings could fit into New York City’s empty office space, as occupancy in the city is hovering around 50% of prepandemic levels, according to the chair of Harvard Economics Department, Edward Glaeser and MIT’s Carlo Ratti.
The cause? Thanks to the pandemic, working from home has become the norm in many industries – a phenomenon which has also heavily impacted mass transit systems in America’s largest cities.
In downtowns from Chicago to Los Angeles, the physical layout of the 20th-century city is clashing with the new economy. Since the 1920s, single-use zoning has divided our cities into separate neighborhoods for home, work and play. Work-from-home and Netflix have made these distinctions irrelevant, but our partitioned urban fabric has yet to catch up.
To create a city vibrant enough to compete with the convenience of the internet, we need to end the era of single-use zoning and create mixed-use, mixed-income neighborhoods that bring libraries, offices, movie theaters, grocery stores, schools, parks, restaurants and bars closer together. We must reconfigure the city into an experience worth leaving the house for. Streets once filled by commuting crowds can be reinvigorated by those who really want to be there. –NYT
In Los Angeles, the vacant office space is equivalent to 30.7 US Bank Towers.
Glaeser and Ratti note that in 1980, futurist Alvin Toffler argued that information technology would render urban office environments more or less obsolete, as workers would instead use residential “electronic cottages.”
This sudden shift was a body blow to New York. Many offices remain empty, and the city lost more than 300,000 inhabitants from 2020 to 2021. No other American city experienced such a large numerical decline. Over the same period, Houston lost only 12,000 people, although the global commercial real estate services company JLL reports that Houston’s office vacancy rates are now even higher than New York’s. -NYT
In San Francisco, the downtown area is experiencing its worst office vacancy crisis on record – with 31% of space available for lease or sublease, the SF Chronicle reports.
In the heart of the city, an astounding 18.4 million square feet of real estate is available — enough space to house 92,000 employees and the equivalent of 13 Salesforce Towers.
The Chronicle mapped and charted every major downtown office building’s vacancy, using data provided by real estate brokerage Lee & Associates.
According to the report, some of the emptiest buildings are those vacated amid layoffs by tech giants Salesforce and Meta – the former of which embraced remote work, and has listed office for lease at 50 Fremont, where 90% of the space is vacant.
Slack, a subsidiary of Salesforce, left its former headquarters at 500 Howard street 95.4% vacant. It’s also listed space at 45 Fremont St. for sublease, which is currently 60% vacant.
Meta, meanwhile, has listed all 435,000 sqft of their 181 Fremont St. location for rent, as the city’s 3rd largest tower currently sits 100% vacant.
According to Cody Kollmann, founding principal at Lee & Associates, “This is the first time in over a decade where office tenants in San Francisco have had any leverage or negotiating power against landlords. This is an incredible opportunity for tenants to exploit a commercial real estate market that is experiencing a historically high vacancy rate.”
Landlords, meanwhile, need to offer more than just space according to some.
“The more an office building acts like a hotel, the more office tenants are attracted to it and the more likely they will stay,” said David Klein, managing principal at Lee & Associates.
“I strongly believe the office experience should be at the same level as luxury residential and hospitality,” said Michael Shivo, owner of the Transamerica Pyramid – who’s investing $250 million in a renovation of the landmark that’s currently sitting 36.7% vacant.
“In the last two years, we’ve made our homes into our offices, now it’s time to make our offices feel like our homes.”
end
This week 83,000 illegal migrants crossed into the USA
Record-Setting 83,000 Migrants Illegally Crossed US Border This Week
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 – 12:00 PM
Tens of thousands of migrants rushed across the US-Mexico border this week as the pandemic-related asylum restrictions were lifted at midnight Thursday.
“A record-setting 83,000 migrants crossed our border illegally this week — equivalent to a full capacity Dallas Cowboys football stadium,” said Fox News’ Bill Melugin.
Melugin fact-checked White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, calling her statement about masses releases aren’t happening at the southern border “categorically false.” He said that is “not the reality of what’s happening on the ground here.”
The Biden administration has said there’s a plan that includes strengthening Title 8 penalties, an asylum rule that makes those entering the US illegally ineligible for asylum. But we question just how strong those rules are considering footage has emerged on Twitter of migrants being loaded on busses and allegedly headed inland.
Hmm…
Clown world.
end
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Durham Releases Final Report, Concludes FBI Opened Trump Probe Despite No Verified Intel
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 03:40 PM
Special Counsel John Durham released his final report on Monday following over three years of investigation into the FBI’s handling of the Trump-Russia probe.
According to Just the News, the report concludes that the FBI had no verified intelligence or evidence when it opened up an investigation into Donald Trump and his campaign in the summer of 2016.
Durham placed blame on the FBI and DOJ for failing to follow their own standards in a probe which should have never taken place – including the agency’s surveillance of an American citizen without basis.
“Based on the review of Crossfire Hurricane and related intelligence activities, we concluded the Department and the FBI failed to uphold their important mission of strict fidelity to the law in connection with certain events and activities described in this report,” wrote Durham.
“The FBI personnel also repeatedly disregarded important requirements when they continued to seek renewals of that FISA surveillance while acknowledging — both then and in hindsight — that they did not genuinely believe there was probable cause to believe that the target was knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of foreign power.”
More via Techno Fog,
END
Cute: Texas Governor buses more illegal migrants to Kamala Harris’ home in DC
(zerohedge)
Watch: Texas Governor Buses More Illegal Migrants To Kamala Harris’ House
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 – 02:00 PM
For decades, Democrats have ignored or applauded the mass movements of illegal immigrants across the US southern border as a grand signal of cosmopolitan virtue. However, as soon as border states began to fight back against open border policies and started sending those same migrants to leftist cities, suddenly their tone changed and their enthusiasm disappeared.
The moment blue sanctuary cities were forced to deal with the direct repercussions of an invasion of low skill, welfare seeking illegal migrants, leftists became enraged. Instead of blaming their own failed ideals, they started blaming the conservative governors that are bussing the illegals to their doorstep. Unphased by the indignant whining of Democrats, the governors of Florida and Texas have continued their effort to make a point – If leftist controlled cities can’t even handle a few thousand migrants, why should border towns be expected to handle millions?
With the continuance of Title 42 now in question, the ability of border patrol agents to ship migrants directly back to Mexico is about to disappear. And, if red states aren’t allowed by the Biden Administration to send them back, they might as well send them to Biden.
Texas Governor Greg Abbot has sent another group of buses carrying illegals to already overwhelmed Washington DC, straight to the residence of Vice President Kamala Harris:
BREAKING: 30 illegal migrants dropped off on Kamala Harris’ front lawn in DC after being bussed by Texas Governor Abbott pic.twitter.com/wSrGgwdIvD— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) May 12, 2023
As the saying goes, the beatings will continue until morale improves. Perhaps Democrat constituents will finally start questioning the immigration policies of their leadership?
end
With the bankruptcy of Vice Media, Soros and Fortress are set to become its new owner
(zerohedge)
Vice Media Declares Bankruptcy As Soros And Fortress Set To Become New Owners
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 07:45 AM
On Monday morning, Vice Media filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District of New York and is anticipated to be acquired by its creditors.
The Brooklyn-based media company that once boasted a $5.7 billion valuation listed assets and liabilities between $500 million to $1 billion.
In a separate statement, Vice Media announced the “Lender Consortium,” which includes Fortress Investment Group, Soros Fund Management, and Monroe Capital, will purchase the media outlet for approximately $225 million in the form of a credit bid for substantially all of the Company’s assets.
We previously noted Fortress Investment Group and Soros Fund Management were interested in purchasing Vice Media out of bankruptcy. This morning’s announcement wasn’t unexpected, as the bankruptcy filing and eventual sale have been widely anticipated for the past few weeks.
The rapid decline of Vice Media, once valued at $5.7 billion in 2017, serves as a cautionary tale for all news media outlets about going ‘woke’ because it’ll ultimately lead to going broke. Here’s a decade of Vice funding and valuations via Axios:Source: Axios
“This accelerated court-supervised sale process will strengthen the Company and position VICE for long-term growth, thereby safeguarding the kind of authentic journalism and content creation that makes VICE such a trusted brand for young people and such a valued partner to brands, agencies and platforms. We will have new ownership, a simplified capital structure and the ability to operate without the legacy liabilities that have been burdening our business. We look forward to completing the sale process in the next two to three months and charting a healthy and successful next chapter at VICE,” said VICE’s Co-Chief Executive Officers Bruce Dixon and Hozefa Lokhandwala.
In addition to Vice Media, BuzzFeed recently shut down its news operation, as did MTV News. The digital media industry has been experiencing a harsh downturn, with media outlets that embraced woke content forced to reduce headcount, restructure, and or altogether cease operations.
Once the sale of Vice Media is finalized this summer, with new stakeholders like the Soros Fund stepping in, the “authentic journalism” content will probably become even more woke than before.
end
Senator Hawley is stating the obvious: the Democrats want chaos at the border
(zerohedge)
Senator Hawley: Democrats “Want The Chaos” At The Border
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 09:45 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
Senator Josh Hawley urged Friday that the Biden administration is intending to “collapse the immigration system” on purpose and that “they want the chaos” at the border.
“I think the plan is exactly what you’re seeing, they want the chaos,” Hawley told Fox News host Laura Ingraham, adding “The plan is to try to collapse our immigration system completely, collapse the courts collapse the asylum process, overrun the border.”
“That is the plan. That’s what they want. They want the chaos,” The Senator reiterated, adding “If you thought the fentanyl problem in this country is bad. You thought it was bad in my state, where it’s the number one cause of death in the state of Missouri for young people. Just wait because they are about to turn it on full throttle.”
Hawley continued, “The drugs that will come across this border, the crime that will come across this border, the danger to our families and our communities, it’s going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen in terms of border crossings in our country’s history.”
“It already is, and they haven’t even lifted title 42 yet,” Hawley continued, adding “They want the immigration system to collapse because the Democrat Party’s base now flies around and jets and conferences in Davos and are a bunch of globalists who want to drive down the price of labor in America.”
“They want to drive down wages for blue-collar workers in America. They want to do the bidding of the global multinationals. That’s who runs the Democrat Party today,” Hawley asserted.
Watch:
The situation at the border is critical with the highest number of illegal crossings ever recorded in the past week, following the end of Title 42.
Video: Cruz Slams Border Chaos As “Nothing Less Than An Invasion”
The media is gaslighting as usual.
Reporter Bill Melugin related that this past weekend the Border Patrol arrested an Afghani individual at the border who is on the terrorism watchlist.
How many more are getting through unimpeded?
end
Comer Reveals Biden Corruption Informant Is Missing
MONDAY, MAY 15, 2023 – 10:45 AM
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday that the key informant in the Biden corruption investigation has gone missing.
According to Comer, at least nine out of ten whistleblowers with knowledge of the situation are “either currently in court, they’re currently in jail, or they’re currently missing.”
“Well unfortunately, we can’t track down the informant,” Comer told Bartiromo. “We’re hopeful that the informant is still there. The whistleblower knows the informant, the whistleblower is very credible.”
“Hold on a second, Congressman,” Bartiromo responded. “Did you just say that the informant is now missing?”
“Well we’re hopeful that we can find the informant,” said Comer. “Now remember, these informants are kind of in the spy business, so they don’t make a habit of being seen a lot or being high-profile or anything like that. We have basic information with respect to what the informant has alleged, and it’s very serious.”
“Are there whistleblowers or informants missing right now?” Bartiromo asked.
“Well, with what we’ve investigated, and the people that we’ve tracked down, going back to the (CEFC China Energy), the two main players in that business, as well as all the Americans that were involved in the different Biden influence peddling schemes, as well as the Serbian national, nine of the ten people that we’ve identified that have knowledge with respect to the Biden’s, they’re one of three things, Maria. They’re either currently in court, they’re currently in jail, or they’re currently missing.” (via the Daily Wire)
Last week Comer and other top House Republicans laid out evidence of a vast network of Biden family dealings which reek of corruption – including;
- The Biden family received, and tried to hide, over $10 million in payments from foreign nationals
- A previously undisclosed $1 million in Romanian-linked payments
- Ties to Romanian ‘influence peddling’
- A ‘web’ of 20 LLCs created while Joe Biden was Vice President with a ‘complicated corporate structure’
- ‘At least 15’ of the LLCs were formed after Biden became VP in 2009 – several of which were owned or co-owned by Hunter
- These LLCs accepted payments ranging from $5,000 to $3 million
- The committee wants to know what legitimate business the Biden family was in
“Biden family members and business associates created a web of over 20 companies—most were limited liability companies formed during Joe Biden’s vice presidency,” reads a memorandum. “Bank records show the Biden family, their business associates, and their companies received over $10 million from foreign nationals’ companies. The Committee has identified payments to Biden family members from foreign companies while Joe Biden served as Vice President and after he left public office.?
“These complicated financial transactions appear to conceal the source of the funds and reduce the conspicuousness of the total amounts made into the Biden bank accounts. Chinese nationals and companies with significant ties to Chinese intelligence and the Chinese Communist Party hid the source of the funds by layering domestic limited liability companies,” Comer continued.
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report May 15, 2023 – Issue 6990 | Independent View of the News |
| An alarming May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed a stunning decline in sentiment (57.7 from 63.5, 63 exp) and unexpected increases in inflation expectations for its two key time frames. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Results for May 2023 MayAprMayM-MY-Y 202320232022ChangeChangeIndex of Consumer Sentiment57.763.558.4-9.1%-1.2%Current Economic Conditions64.568.263.3-5.4%+1.9%Index of Consumer Expectations53.460.555.2-11.7%-3.3% Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June… Year-ahead expectations for the economy plummeted 23% from last month. Long-run expectations slid by 16% as well, indicating that consumers are worried that any economic downturn will not be brief… Long-run inflation expectations rose to their highest reading since 2011, lifting from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month (2.9% exp)… http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ US Consumer Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit 12-Year High – BBG 10:09 ET @M_McDonough: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment by Political Affiliation: Democrat 78.1, Independent 51.3, Republican 39.5 https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1657025294685941763 1-year inflation expectations by political party are also striking: Republicans 5.0%, Democrats 2.5% https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1657030917251014665 @FrancoisTrahan: This is just one proxy of inflation expectations and they don’t all look like this. Still, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey had this gem of a data point in it. Now this is long-term, so it’s asking how people feel about the 5–10-year outlook for inflation. That this is hitting a cycle peak NOW is interesting. Is this an indictment on the Fed and how the populace does not believe they can achieve a Volcker-esque outcome with inflation. Rogue data point? Surely not going to help the Fed’s quest to figure out their next move. https://twitter.com/FrancoisTrahan/status/1657028492087685121 @hussmanjp: University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectations: “The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.” – Jerome Powell ESMs traded sideways and modestly higher from the Nikkei opening until a rally commenced at 3:23 ET. ESMs and stocks plodded higher until they peaked at 5:08 ET. After a moderate A-B-C decline that ended at 8:17 ET, ESMs and stocks went inert until they tumbled after the stagflationary UM Sentiment. After a modest post-European close rally, ESMs sank anew. ESMs and stocks bottomed at 13:02 ET. It was time for the Friday afternoon rally. A 14-handle ESM rally peaked at 13:25 ET. ESMs and stocks then sank again. The widely expected late manipulation commenced at 14:45 ET. The rally persisted until 15:55 ET (for 36 handles). Beyond the power & the glory of the Friday afternoon manipulation! USMs opened flat on Thursday night but quickly began a rally that peaked at 0:11 ET. USMs then declined from a high of 131 30/32 to 130 31/32 at 8 ET, the US bond market opening. Traders quickly jacked USMs to 131 22/32 at 9:48 ET. After the UM Sentiment, USM tumbled to 130 26/32. USMs hit their daily low of 130 17/32 (-1.00) at the 17:00 ET close. The dollar rallied sharply on the perception that the stagflationary May UM Sentiment survey would keep the Fed from pivoting for the foreseeable future, and it might induce more Fed rate hikes. Elon Musk to Step Aside at Tesla and Twitter – Elon Musk appears to have chosen a successor to run Twitter, and there are rumors a new CEO at Tesla may be imminent… https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/12/rumor-elon-musk-to-step-aside-at-tesla-and-twitter/ Top NBCUni Ad Exec and World Economic Forum Taskforce Chair Is Twitter’s New CEO As Chair of the Advertising Council’s Board of Directors and arguably NBCU’s top advertising exec, she is meant to fill a critical void at the new Twitter… Yaccarino is the “Chairman of the WEF’s Taskforce on Future of Work and sits on the WEF’s Media, Entertainment and Culture Industry Governors Steering Committee. She is also highly engaged with the Value in Media initiative… Yaccarino partnered with the business community, the White House, and government agencies to create a COVID-19 vaccination campaign… At NBCU, she uses the power of media to advance equity and helps to launch DEI-focused initiatives, including BOLD, a program for employing veterans… Yaccarino appears to be the perfect establishment hire, one who will help Twitter recover most of its lost ad revenue… the trade-off may very well be that in the process twitter may just become the same company it was before its acquisition by Musk. In response to the news of her hiring, the outcry has been – as one would imagine – extremely polarized… “@elonmusk, don’t Bud Light yourself”… “Twitter was fun for a few months. See you guys in the gulag.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-nbcuniversal-ad-exec-and-world-economic-forum-taskforce-chair-become-twitter-ceo @elonmusk: I am excited to welcome Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter! @LindaYacc will focus primarily on business operations, while I focus on product design & new technology. Looking forward to working with Linda to transform this platform into X, the everything app. Positive aspects of previous session The usual Friday afternoon rally, especially before expiry week, appeared. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank and bonds declined on the stagflationary May UM Sentiment Survey The dollar rallied on the believe that Fed must now hold firm – at the least Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will bulls frame the reality that there is no Fed Pivot on the horizon? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4122.31 Previous session High/Low: 4143.74; 4099.12 Most COVID-19 Deaths May Be the Result of a Completely Different Infection A high percentage of people who required help from a ventilator due to a COVID-19 infection also developed secondary bacterial pneumonia. This pneumonia was responsible for a higher mortality rate… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/most-covid-19-deaths-may-be-the-result-of-a-completely-different-infection/ar-AA1b1zVk National Library of Medicine: The majority of deaths in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic likely resulted directly from secondary bacterial pneumonia caused by common upper respiratory–tract bacteria… Prevention, diagnosis, prophylaxis, and treatment of secondary bacterial pneumonia, as well as stockpiling of antibiotics and bacterial vaccines, should also be high priorities for pandemic planning… https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/ In their corrupt haste to prescribe ventilators and other government subsidized treatments, US health officials forgot or disregarded the lessons of the 1918 Spanish Influenza crisis. WSJ: Young Voters on Biden: ‘He’s Just So Old’ Students lose enthusiasm because of president’s age, performance in office https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-voters-on-biden-hes-just-so-old-7ebe2700 The new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found support for the president had plummeted 16 points among Gen Z and millennials in the past year, to sit at 37% — the lowest of any age group in the U.S. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/01/1095466871/biden-polls-democrats-gen-z-midterms New York City to pass bill protecting overweight people from ‘weight discrimination’: ‘Silent burden’ – Republican council members… claiming it will allow people to ‘sue anyone and everything’ https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-city-pass-bill-protecting-overweight-people-weight-discrimination-silent-burden US Urges Recall of 67 Million Air Bag Parts in Safety Mess – BBG 17:54 ET on FridayInflator manufacturer ARC Automotive disagrees with assessmentUS regulators are urging a recall of 67 million air bag inflators they say could explode in a crash, a major escalation of a safety issue that has plagued the auto industry for years… two deaths dating back to 2009 to as recently as this past March… The air bags are used by at least a dozen car manufacturers… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-12/gm-to-recall-nearly-1-million-vehicles-over-defective-air-bags @GunjanJS: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% this week–its sixth consecutive week of moves less than 1%. That’s the longest streak since *2019*–Dow Jones Market Data Apple’s market cap is now greater than the market cap of the Russell 200k! https://twitter.com/WillieDelwiche/status/1657575319094607872 @GameofTrades_: This is worse than the 2008 Financial Crisis – Home price as a multiple of income is at the highest level EVER seen https://t.co/FGmduOoLR6 @WSJ: The nation’s largest bank is rebutting the claims of GOP attorneys general and treasurers, who say JPMorgan mistreats people of faith (How can this be, Saint Jamie?) https://t.co/HW9hT4CT7f U.S. will start buying oil to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve next month (Was supposed to be Nov!) Last year, the administration depleted the reserves by 180 million barrels of oil, its largest sale in American history. Continued sales caused the SPR to plunge to its lowest level in 40 years at an estimated 372 million barrels, according to Reuters… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/us-will-start-buying-oil-refill-strategic-petroleum-reserve-june-energy-sec Today – This is expiry week. The usual suspects will play for the upside manipulation that is intended to squeeze expiry May calls. Last week, the S&P 500 Index formed a double bottom: 4098.92 on Wednesday and 4099.12 on Friday. Apparently, someone was determined to keep the S&P 500 Index from experiencing a meaningful breach of 4100. Of course, this level will be important support this week. Except for a two-day spike higher on the last day of April and May 1, as well as two dips lower (4/26 & 5/4), the S&P 500 Index has traded sideways, in a 64-handle range (~1.5%). The yin/yang of expected economic ebbing vs the hope that the Fed will halt rate hikes and maybe pivot has produced a standoff. Instead of the usual Sunday night rally, ESMs are -7.00 at 20:40 ET. The Big Guy said he will not meet with Speaker McCarthy on the debt ceiling until Tuesday. Joe needs long weekends for whatever. Expected econ data: May Empire -4.0; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 8:45 ET, Min Fed Pres Kashkari 9:15 ET S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4058; 100-day MA: 4020; 150-day MA: 3968; 200-day MA: 3975 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,153; 100-day MA: 33,334; 150-day MA: 33,084; 200-day MA: 32,754 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3919.40 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4184.25 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4133.83 triggers a buy signal @RNCResearch: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas says a federal judge’s ruling barring the mass release of illegal immigrants into the country without court dates is “a very harmful ruling.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1657014420411756544 Biden DOJ seeks emergency court order allowing it to continue releasing illegal migrants into U.S. (It’s as if some Manchurian Candidates are destroying the US on purpose – with addled Joe as the patsy!) https://justthenews.com/government/security/biden-doj-seeks-emergency-court-order-allow-it-continue-releasing-illegal Judge blisters Biden DOJ, rejects emergency order to allow release of illegal migrants into U.S. “DHS’s Chicken Little arguments about the impact of it not being able to (mis)use ‘parole’ under either policy as a processing tool for the surge of aliens arriving at the border are hard to square with the DHS Secretary’s recent comments that only ‘a fraction of the people that we encounter’ would be paroled into the country and that ‘the vast majority will be addressed in our border patrol facilities and our ICE detention facilities,’” Wetherell wrote… https://justthenews.com/government/security/biden-doj-seeks-emergency-court-order-allow-it-continue-releasing-illegal @alx: Illegal Immigrants are rewarded with free cell phones and some court dates aren’t until 2027. We are not a serious country. https://twitter.com/alx/status/1657025646952841222 @RealJamesWoods: If seven million potential Republican voters were strolling across our southern border, there would be tanks parked on the Rio Grande and helicopter gunships in the air. Biden takes zero questions, smiles silently as press is kicked out amid post-Title 42 chaos at border White House staff pushed reporters out of the room as they shouted questions to the president… Biden sat silently for over a minute, offering a smirk and even a chuckle before the press were ushered from the room… (Sounds like Danny DeVito in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest”) https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-takes-zero-questions-from-reporters-chaos-erupts-southern-border-following-expiration-title-42 Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Biden admin holds virtual border “briefing” with officials from DHS, State, DoD – but forces reporters to submit written questions which are read aloud by officials and answered. Officials did not take my q – asked to confirm reports of a migrant child death in US custody. Where’s Kamala? Biden ‘border czar’ absent from issue as migration surges Harris did not visit the border until late June of 2021 https://justthenews.com/government/security/wkdwheres-kamala-biden-border-czar-absent-issue-migration-surges Outrage grows over vets evicted from New York hotels to house migrants https://trib.al/wAcy7qA Hotel set to take NYC migrants abruptly cancels 30 rooms soon-to-be newlyweds booked for their guests https://t.co/crAFEFr5LX Andrew Cuomo says Biden ‘terribly mismanaged’ border crisis https://trib.al/8sVRZkV El Paso Department of Public Health Warns of Community Outbreaks of Chickenpox, TB, Infestations, and STD Due to Influx of Illegal Aliens https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/el-paso-department-of-public-health-warns-of-community-outbreaks-of-chickenpox-tb-infestations-and-std-due-to-influx-of-illegal-aliens/ Biden heads to beach as DHS forces employees to work weekend at the border (In fairness, he probably needs treatment!) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-heads-to-beach-as-his-dhs-forces-frontlines-to-work-weekend Despite pressing debt ceiling and southern boarder crises, The Big Guy headed to his beach house for the weekend. Joe has visibly worsened over the past few weeks. Chicago Residents Throw Fit Over New Migrants as Dem Cities Clash with Biden Admin over Finances – “All of a sudden we have deep pockets for people who don’t pay taxes,” said one attendee. “I understand helping people, but you start with your own home.”… https://t.co/3UmJxv3MZ2 @EndWokeness: Massive protest in South Shore, Chicago against new illegals arriving. One of their concerns? These new arrivals will diminish the black vote. “Politically, having over 500 people in our community will completely wipe out any interests we have… There are immigrant advocates… that are advocating for non-citizen voting in local elections… this is an effort to destroy our neighborhoods and silence our voices even further… would completely wipeout any political interests we have…” https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1657049840344342531 @EmeraldRobinson: The moment black Democrat voters realized: they’re getting replaced too! @charliekirk11: Really chilling clip. James Comer, Chair of House Oversight, says 9 of the 10 whistleblowers that they’ve identified are missing! They’re either currently in court, they’re currently already jail, or they’re missing. He also says he knows who is intimidating them. (FBI is NOT helping!) https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1657772671999041537 Turley: America’s state media: The blackout on Biden corruption is truly ‘Pulitzer-level stuff’ The whole purpose of influence peddling is to use family members as shields for corrupt officials. Instead of making a direct payment to a politician, which could be seen as a bribe, you can give millions to his or her spouse or children… The New York Times ran a piece headlined, “House Republican Report Finds No Evidence of Wrongdoing by President Biden.” That is putting aside evidence against all the family members around Joe Biden. It also ignored that other evidence clearly shows Biden lied about this family not receiving Chinese funds or that he never had any knowledge of his son’s business dealings… Roughly 100 years ago, New York Times reporter Walter Duranty won the Pulitzer for his coverage of the Soviet Union despite serving as an apologist for Joe Stalin. Duranty refused to report on actual conditions from mass killing to starvation in the “worker’s paradise.” Thus, when the Soviets were starving to death as many as 10 million Ukrainians, the Times ran a Duranty story with the headline “Russians Hungry but Not Starving.” He not only spinned Stalin labor camps that killed millions but also attacked reporters who sought to uncover the truth… https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4003066-americas-state-media-the-blackout-on-biden-corruption-is-truly-pulitzer-level-stuff/ Babylon Bee: Biden Says $10 Million Payment from Romania to His Cat Is Totally Legitimate https://t.co/qzsFODnOH8 Biden boasts Ketanji Brown Jackson ‘brighter’ than other SCOTUS justices during Howard graduation speech – An ABC News / Washington Post poll this week found that Biden’s approval ratings with black people stood at just 52% — down from 82% at the time he took office… https://trib.al/qreqopp Biden calls white supremacy ‘most dangerous terrorist threat’ in speech at Howard “White supremacy … is the single most dangerous terrorist threat in our homeland,” Biden said. “And I’m not just saying this because I’m at a Black HBCU. I say this wherever I go.”… (The Unity Prez!) https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/13/biden-howard-university-white-supremacy-terrorism-00096811 NY Post: ‘PURE EVIL’: Critics accused President Joe Biden of using his speech at Howard University’s commencement as an opportunity to inflame racial tension in the US. https://fxn.ws/42zwPrx FBI Misled Americans on January 6 ‘Pipe Bombs’ Planted at RNC And DNC, Ex-Agent Says Seraphin, who worked on the case, claims the devices were inoperable and posed no real threat…. The discovery of the pipe bombs added to the already charged atmosphere surrounding the Capitol riot, which occurred the next day… Another questionable aspect revealed by Seraphin was the mishandling of suspect identification. He revealed that authorities tracked the purchase of a card associated with the devices, but the person who bought it was not the same individual observed using it. This discrepancy raises doubts about the thoroughness of the investigation and the potential leads that could have been pursued… “I don’t know what they [eventually] did on that case, but I know that it was BS and the bombs were BS, and it seems like they had a good lead, and they could have run it down. But as far as I know, they never did.” (But they vigorously pursued grannies for trespassing & parading!) https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-fbi-lied-about-january-6-pipe-bombs-planted-at-rnc-and-dnc-ex-agent-says-mace/ Former Trump probe prosecutor refuses to answer House Judiciary Committee questions The DA’s office had instructed him to maintain the office’s claims of privilege and confidentiality to protect the integrity of the criminal case against Trump. Pomerantz also cited his Fifth Amendment right under the Constitution not to answer questions that could be used against him in a possible criminal case… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/12/former-trump-prosecutor-pomerantz-refuses-to-answer-house-questions.html @Spriter99880: US Vice President Kamala Harris appeared in public in a very strange state https://t.co/q7vFfNK9GS The Trump Express derailed in Des Moines, Iowa on Saturday evening – and DJT was the engineer. Des Moines Register’s @brianneDMR: After Donald Trump canceled his Des Moines rally for inclement weather, Ron DeSantis added an unscheduled stop at a BBQ restaurant just down the road from where Trump was set to appear. He and his wife Casey are standing on a table talking to the crowd now. https://t.co/Ybxz2CVgva @emeriticus: Trump isn’t canceling his event in Iowa because of the weather. DeSantis has been there all day. He’s still there. Trump’s canceling because his attendance would have been so low compared to DeSantis it would have humiliated him. That’s also why his team is so “sensitive” today… The FAA shows no disruptions in and out of Des Moines airport nor have they all day. @johncardillo: Just got this from someone in Iowa. This was the parking lot at the Trump rally before he canceled. And I am convinced this is why he canceled. Twitter is not the real world. In the real-world people are tired and exhausted of the same old stale talking points. https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1657478579800735750 @ReOpenChris: Dismal attendance at Iowa Trump rally. “There are only a few hundred people here for the Trump rally. Any other rally there would be thousands by now.” -Longtime Trump supporter https://twitter.com/ReOpenChris/status/1657414118297546752 @SwissWatchGuy: How we know Trump didn’t cancel his rally for a tornado watch: NOTHING else in Des Moines has been cancelled. There’s a major outdoor event going on at the Iowa State Fairgrounds RIGHT NOW. There’s an outdoor concert starting right now at the water park. It wasn’t the tornado. @AGHamilton29: Wow. So, Fox News was supposed to be airing Trump’s rally right now, but since he cancelled, instead they are airing DeSantis’ live remarks to the Iowa GOP. @SteveDeaceShow: One of the dumbest things I’ve seen in politics is not knowing when to take the L. Campaigns are like long… No one goes undefeated. You’re gonna take Ls…. Yesterday, Trump and his support network of wannabe Iowa geography and meteorological experts here failed this test — and took a self-inflicted toe stubbing and turned into an octogenarian’s shower fall that required Life Alert… CNN reporter Oliver Darcy scolded by CEO Chris Licht over ‘emotional’ coverage of Trump town hall: report – Licht reportedly said that he wanted to see more objective coverage of all news outlets, not just CNN… https://t.co/DmXx0tQMQR @VigilantFox: RFK Jr: The Ukraine Conflict Really Started in 2014 — When the U.S. Overthrew the Ukraine Govt – “… and particularly the neocons in the White House and elsewhere, participated in and supported the overthrow, violent overthrow – a coup d’état – against the democratically elected government of the Ukraine and put in a very, very anti-Russian government,”… “The government that came into the Ukraine began enacting a series of laws that turn turned the Russian populations of the Donbas region into second-class citizens. They illegalized, essentially, their culture, their language, and they began ultimately killing them. They killed 14,000 of them. And it prompted a civil war in the country.” https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1657142183500103681 @ivanastradner: The belief that dictatorships can become democracies through trade and investments is one of the greatest illusions. This was the Western approach in the 90’s toward Russia (and China) and now we see the consequences. The more time I spend in the West the more I see how policymakers don’t understand different cultures. They should all study “perception management”. @KanekoaTheGreat: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. details how the NSA was in charge of Operation Warpspeed’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, the history of the United States bioweapons program, and why Anthony Fauci is the highest-paid government official in history: “The weird thing about the pandemic was this constant involvement by the CIA, the intelligence agencies, and the military. When Operation Warp Speed made its presentation to the FDA committee called VRBPAC. When Warp Speed turned over the organizational charts that were classified at the time, it shocked everybody because it wasn’t HHS, CDC, NIH, FDA, or a public health agency. It was the NSA, a spy agency that was at the top and led Operation Warp Speed. The vaccines were developed not by Moderna and Pfizer. They were developed by NIH, their own the patents are owned 50% by NIH. Nor were they manufactured by Pfizer, or by Moderna. They were manufactured by military contractors, and basically, Pfizer and Moderna were paid to put their stamps on those vaccines as if they came from the pharmaceutical industry. This was a military project from the beginning… It was all about how you use a pandemic to clamp down censorship. How you use it to force lockdowns. By the way, with lockdowns, every pandemic preparedness document that had been adopted by any major public health agencies, whether it was CDC, WHO, European Health Agency, National Health Services of Britain. All of them said you don’t do lockdowns, you quarantine the sick, you protect the vulnerable. And you let everybody else go back to work because a lockdown actually amplifies the impacts of the disease. If you isolate people, it makes them more vulnerable, it breaks down their immune system.” https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1657175672660566016 John Kass: It Was Lawless Chicago Politics That Killed CPD Officer Aréanah Preston If only they’d been locked up on other numerous charges for other numerous violent acts, they had been charged with, Officer Preston would be alive… her death was a direct result of the permissive politics that promotes the wanton lawlessness that leftist billionaire George Soros has wanted in urban areas when he began running hard left no-prosecution prosecutors across the country. It is this wanton lawlessness that I’ve been trying to warn you about for years… The Democratic Party nationally broke Black families apart by replacing fathers with government welfare checks. And recently, as Soros prosecutors took hold here and in other jurisdictions, mass shoplifting without serious punishment was not only allowed but encouraged by Cook County State’s Atty. Kim Foxx and others… when teenagers and young men ended up killing innocent children, an odd thing happened: They were excused by the Chief Judge of the Cook County Court. Judge Tim Evans has explained that the brains of the killers weren’t developed enough to determine right from wrong. He gave them an excuse for murder… I’ve known Tim for years. He’s always been a nice fellow, but also a complete weakling. He caved to the hard leftist politics of Cook County Toni Preckwinkle, who has been protected and endorsed by her media champions including the Chicago Tribune…for years these teenage thugs grew up in a county where there were no serious consequences for violence, no guardrails to guide them away from aberrant behavior… They are protected by broken and corrupt legacy media… https://johnkassnews.com/it-was-chicago-politics-that-killed-cpd-officer-areanah-preston/ Elon Musk: Why Does the Media Misrepresent Interracial Crime Stats “To Such an Extreme Degree”? https://t.co/vNNAIqcsSs The NIH: The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all violent crime convictions The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality…. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3969807/ Gov. Newsom announces $32 billion budget deficit, $10 billion more than previously estimated https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gov-newsom-announces-32-billion-budget-deficit-10-billion-more-than-previously-estimated @RealJamesWoods: The worst taxes, most rampant crime, highest homelessness, and a $32,000,000,000 deficit. Nice job. And this guy wants to run for president. @AlexEpstein: “Air pollution may obliterate the sun and cause a new ice age in the first third of the next century.” – @BostonGlobe 1970 “I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the Boston telephone directory than by the 2,000 people on the faculty of Harvard University.” – William F. Buckley Jr. “Millions come LEGALLY to the USA. Calling illegal aliens ‘undocumented immigrants’ is like calling heroin dealers ‘undocumented pharmacists.” – Actor James Woods. | |
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING DR SHERRI TENPENNY
CV19 Vax is a Murder Campaign – Dr. Sherri Tenpenny
By Greg Hunter On May 13, 2023 In Political Analysis16 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Dr. Sherri Tenpenny was one of the first doctors to sound the alarm on the CV19 “vaccine” and the death and disability that would come from its widespread use during the so-called Covid pandemic. Increasing numbers of mass death and disability have proven her right. Dr. Tenpenny has long been against the use of all vaccines because data shows they do much harm and little good. Dr. Tenpenny says, “When talking about the shots, it was just a natural extension for me to look at the Covid vaccine, and I really should not call it a vaccine because it is a bioweapon. . .. I found 40 mechanisms of injury in July of 2021 and how the Covid shots could make you sick or kill you. . .. Early on I tried to warn people . . .. The reason they are letting off the accelerator is enough people have been injected that are going to die. That was the intention. It is population control or depopulation. . .. This was never meant to do good for people. . .. There were no long-term studies, and we pushed it on every age group all the way down to the fetus. . .. . I mean this is a murder campaign.”
How bad is this going to get with the official number of CV19 bioweapon/vax injections at well over 600 million in the USA alone? Dr. Tenpenny predicts, “The data is clear, and the published studies show that even if you have had only one injection, you have some level of myocarditis. It is present six months after the injection, and that means your heart muscle is not healing. We also know that there are all these cancers popping up, even in kids. . .. I don’t know if you can say 70% of the population is going to be gone, but I believe 70% of the population is going to be chronically sick, and of those, they will die eventually (from the bioweapon/vax) even if you have only had one injection.”
Dr. Tenpenny says as the numbers grow with death and disabilities coming from the CV19 kill shot, less and less people are in denial about the reality of what is happening. Dr. Tenpenny says, “They are really going to try to stay in denial, but there will come a tipping point when they can’t deny it anymore. I think the powers that be know that. That’s the part of the narrative that they are losing control over. There will be a tipping point in the world, and people will realize that this was a murderous campaign to depopulate the world. . . . Who is going to get to the gate first? Are they going to get there first and lock us into being permanent slaves for the rest of our lives? Or are “We the People” the large mass of people, going to get to the gate first, and push it forward and say NO way? We should round up these people that did this to us and lock them up. They should not be allowed to be walking free on this planet.”
Dr. Tenpenny has some good news too and offers some ways the vaxed and unvaxed being shed on can detox from this evil CV19 bioweapon/vax.
There is much more in the 39-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Sherri Tenpenny, one of the first medical doctors to tell everyoneNOT to get this CV19 bioweapon injection.
(https://usawatchdog.com/cv19-vax-is-a-murder-campaign-dr-sherri-tenpenny/)
After the Interview:
For lots of free information, go to DrTenpenny.com.
There is more information on Dr. Tenpenny’s Substack called Dr. Tenpenny’s Eye on the Evidence.
Dr. Tenpenny’s Christian Substack is called Dr Tenpenny – Walking With God.
I will see you on TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
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