MAY 19//DEMOCRATS WALK AWAY FROM THE DEBT CEILING DEBATE AND THAT CAUSES OUR PRECIOUS METALS TO ZOOM POST T.A.S. MANIPULATION: GOLD CLOSED UP $22.20 TO $1979.70//SILVER CLOSED UP 38 CENTS TO $23.89//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $18.15 TO $1071.20//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $52.00 TO $1515.80//AS PER GOLD AND SILVER, THE VIDEO OF ANDREW MAGUIRE DISCUSSING THE FED’S PREDICIMENT IS A MUST VIEW//ALSO ALASDAIR MACLEOD’S ESSENTIAL READING THIS WEEKEND//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA/VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA VS USA UPDATES HIGHLIGHTED BY THE USA TO ALLOW F 16’S TO BE SENT TO UKRAINE////UK’S ROYAL MAIL LOSES ONE BILLION POUNDS THIS YEAR!!//USA DATA: 90 MILLION AMERICANS STRUGGLE PAYING THEIR BILLS//REPORT ON THE USA CRE CRISIS//FOOTLOCKER WARNS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 7 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 5 661 C JP MORGAN 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 1 880 H CITIGROUP 6 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 13 13
JPMorgan stopped 3/13 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 13 NOTICES FOR 1300 OZ or 0.0404 TONNES
total notices so far: 5931 contracts for 593,100 oz (18.4479 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 29 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 145,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2442 for 12,210,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $22.20..
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///
INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 38 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /; : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.529 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 630 CONTRACTS TO 138,674 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.23 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS IN FULL FORCE DURING MID CYCLE IN THE DELIVERY MONTH. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY: A STRONG 503 CONTRACTS. THE CROOKS LIQUIDATED MOST LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT END OF THE SPREAD TRADE MANIPULATING THE PRICE OF SILVER SOUTHBOUND.
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 269 CONTRACTS ( MOST OF THIS LOSS WITH HIGH PROBABILITY WAS DUE TO TAS LIQUIDATION). WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 4.250MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH (TAS), AND FINAL WEEK (COMEX SPREADERS).
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 361 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 65,000 OZ (QUEUE JUMP RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 4.25MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 17.250 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) LARGE NUMBER OF SHORT T.A.S. CONTRACT LIQUIDATION MANIPULATING THE PRICE DOWN.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -removed 149CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 10,300 contracts: OR 51.500 MILLION OZ . (687 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 51.500 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 51.50 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 630CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 361 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 65,000 OZ (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 4.25 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 13.000 MILLION OZ + 4.25 MILLION = 17.250 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF120 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD FINALIZATION OF TAS LIQUIDATION. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 503!!
WE HAD 29 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 145,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,345 CONTRACTS TO 488,839 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -928 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 11,345 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $23.80 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS 700 OZ QUEUE JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)/+ /A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1870 T.A.S. CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE (AND DEFINITELY FINAL) LIQUIDATION OF TAS TODAY////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $23.80 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 7349 OI CONTRACTS (22.85 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3996 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,911
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7349 CONTRACTS WITH 11,345 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): 1870 CONTRACTS) AND 3996 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7349CONTRACTS OR 22.85TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3996 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (11,345) //TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 7,349 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 700 OZ // NEW STANDING: 18.790 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1870 CONTRACTS (AFTER WHICH THEY FINALIZED LIQUIDATION OF THE REMAINDER OF MAY’S T.A.S. CONTRACTS.)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,444 CONTRACTS OR 4,644,400 OZ OR 144.46 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3093 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 144.46 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 144.46/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 144.46 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALLER MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 630 CONTRACTS OI TO 138,674 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 361 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 361 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 361 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 630CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 361OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 269 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.345 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.78 PTS OR 0.42% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 276.68 POINTS OR 1.40% /The Nikkei closed UP 234.42 OR 0.77% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.60 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.0137 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.0267 /Oil UP TO 72.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 11,345 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 488,674 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $23.80 ON THURSDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3996 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 3996 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3996 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7,349 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3996LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 11,345COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $23.80. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE),THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE THIS MORNING WAS A STRONG 1870 CONTRACTS. THE SHORT SIDE WAS LIQUIDATED TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND AGAIN TODAY WHICH OF COURSE MANIPULATED THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THE LONG SIDE OF THE EQUATION WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (18.790) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 18.790 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $23.80) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 7349 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THAT LOSS WAS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO THE TAS CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 22.85PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 700 oz (0.0217 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 18.790 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $23.80
WE HAD +REMOVED 928 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7349 CONTRACTS OR 734,900 OZ OR 22.85 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5931 notices 593,100 OZ 18.4479 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 4
i) Out of Brinks 292.920 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 5632.723 oz
iii) Out of Manfra: 6076.539 oz (189 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 12,002.182 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 123 contracts having LOST 38 contracts. We had 45 contracts filed
on THURSDAY, so we GAINED 7 contracts or an additional 700 oz (0.02177 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May
June LOST A HUGE 17,582 contracts DOWN to 186,811 contracts. (FROM WHICH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT WAS DUE TO TAS FINAL LIQUIDATION)
July added 26 contracts to stand at 1890 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 5449 contracts UP to 243,876 contracts
We had 13 contracts filed for today representing 1300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 9 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 13 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,931 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (123 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 13 x 100 oz per contract equals 604,100 OZ OR 18.790 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (5,931 x 100 oz) x 123 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (13)x 100 oz} which equals 603,400 oz standing OR 18.768 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 18.790 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,580,639.231 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,396,482.120 (385,58 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,196,159.289 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,699,919 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 332.81 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 19//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
524,506.399 oz Brinks CNT Manfra
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
598,898.300 oz JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
29 CONTRACT(S) (145,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
158 contracts (790,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2442 Contracts (12,210,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: 598,898.300 oz
Total deposits: 598,898.300 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.925 million oz/274.195 million =51.71% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Brinks: 1904.900 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 312,756.310 oz
iii) Out of Manfra 209,845.189 oz
Total withdrawal: 524,506.399 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.933 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.195 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 187 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 237 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 250 CONTRACTS FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND
JUNE HAD A 45 CONTRACT GAIN TO 1118
JULY HAD A 880 CONTRACT LOSS TO 113,675 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 for 145,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 55,075 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 50,049 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2442 x 5,000 oz = 12,210,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(187) and the number of notices served upon today 29 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 2442 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (187) – number of notices served upon today (29 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 13.000 million oz + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.250//NEW TOTAL 17.250 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 936.96 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Alasdair Macleod: Now we’re all working for the state
Your weekend reading material:
Alasdair Macleod….
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-05-18 13:09Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, May 18, 2023
A consequence of increasing economic intervention by the state is that we are now expected to breed more taxpayers in future and draw down on our state pensions for less time. Our productivity must be improved as well, thereby maximising our state’s tax revenues.
With respect to the democratic process, is this really what we have signed up for? It is hardly surprising that we are losing individual freedom. We are now working for the state, instead of the state working for us.
This role inversion is the logical outcome of turning our backs on free markets and ceding a role to the state in the management of our personal and economic affairs. And it is further justified by statistical analysis that supports the role of the state, but on examination turns out to be thoroughly misleading.
In this article, I comment on the economics of population growth as discussed by mainstream economists, show how we are being badly misled by productivity statistics, and by the true value of GDP which is to enable the state to estimate future tax revenue.
But the states’ habitual predation on their private sectors is coming to an end, because it will become impossible to finance. The end of the long-term trend of falling interest rates will see to that. …
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire brings us up to date on the escalating battle between physical and paper gold, the current price dip, and how the trapped Federal Reserve might be able to get out of its predicament. …
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: DIAMONDS
Slowdown in diamonds and other luxury goods throughout the world
(zerohedge)
World’s Top Polishing Diamond Hub Warns “Difficult Year” Ahead On Weak US, China Demand
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Another sign of a possible consumer downturn is unfolding in India, recognized as the world’s top polishing gem hub. The country is bracing for a challenging year as diamond demand from key markets in North America and Asia is expected to soften.
For the fiscal year ending in March, India reported a 10% drop in cut and polished diamond exports to $22 billion, driven primarily by inconsistent Russian rough-diamond supplies and waning demand in the US and China, according to Bloomberg, citing a new report from Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council.
On Wednesday, Vipul Shah, chairman of the state-backed industry group, spoke with Bloomberg TV about the souring diamond demand in top global markets:
“It is going to be a difficult year,” Shah said. Elevated inflationary pressures in the US, China’s slower-than-expected recovery after pandemic restrictions lifted, and volatile gold prices will make it “tough and challenging” for Indian diamond merchants, he noted.
“Supply is also one of the constraints,” while factories in the key hub of Surat, Gujarat state, have been slow in building inventories, with working shifts staggered in light of the weak demand, Shah said.
India, which considers Moscow a close political and trade partner, imports oil, weapons, and commodities from Russia despite the threat of sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. Shah’s group is in talks with the Indian government to resolve a payment issue with regard to procuring rough-gem supplies from Russia, he said. Still, the industry’s biggest challenge was waiting for “the US economy to pick up, consumer demand to pick up,” Shah said. –Bloomberg
Another sign that consumers in the world’s largest economy might be under pressure is a report last month from French luxury group LVMH which pointed out a “bit of a slowdown” in luxury spending in the first quarter.
The luxury spending slowdown comes as the seemingly invincible US consumer starts to break, first at the low end (as we explained two months ago in “First Signs Of A Notable Low-Income Slowdown“) and now at the top.
Now according to the most recent debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute, the recent higher-income job market slowdown is also starting to impact spending. Yes: the upper-income cohort is finally starting to crack too.
And what are some of the first things consumers dial back spending as macroeconomic headwinds mount? Well, it’s jewelry and other forms of luxury spending.
END
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.0137
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0267
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.78 PTS OR 0.42%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 276.68 PTS OR 1.40%
2. Nikkei closed UP 234.62 PTS OR 0.77%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.16 EURO RISES TO 1.0798 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.401 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 138.42 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.480***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.357*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.538…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 40.034
3j Gold at $1963.50 silver at: 23.58 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 15 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.07//
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 138.43 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .401% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9002 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9743 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.666 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.906 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2637 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.81…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.006 UP 11 BASIS PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise After Breaking Out To New 2023 Highs Ahead Of Powell Speech
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 08:06 AM
After breaking out to new 2023 highs, US equity futures are up small (on “debt talk progress” even though there has been zero actual debt talk progress) ahead of Powell’s speech today, trading in a narrow 10 points. As of 730am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% to 4,220 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%. European stocks are up 0.8%m near session highs with Germany’s DAX set for a record close for the first time since January 2022 while the Nikkei 225 closed at a 33-year peak, as momentum carried over from Wall Street. Bond yields reversed earlier losses and hit session highs around 3.65% while dollars are weaker. Pre-market, megacap tech, where we just saw the biggest call buying since 2014, continues to drive higher amid yesterday’s rally. Commodities are mixed: oil is set to close its best week since mid-April while base metals are lagging. Macro calendar is quiet today with the major focus on Powell’s speech at a panel at 11am ET (Fed) where former chair Ben Bernanke will also be present. Keep an eye on the key 4200 level today.
In premarket trading, Applied Materials shares edged lower, down 1.7% trading, after the semiconductor-capital equipment company said sales will drop in the third quarter as the memory- chip slump weighs on its business. However, analysts noted that strength in its IoT, Communications, Automotive, Power and Sensors (ICAPS) business might offset some of the weakness in the memory segment. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
PacWest shares rose 3.8% in premarket trading Friday, set for a third day of gains amid an ongoing relief rally for US regional banks. PacWest has already gained 28% this week, and is set for the best weekly gain since June 2020.
Farfetch shares surge as much as 21% in premarket trading, poised for their biggest jump since November, after the specialty online retailer’s first-quarter results beat expectations on back of growing sales volumes in the US and China. Analysts expect further improvement in 2H, as business in China ramps up and FX headwinds ease.
As discussed extensively in recent days, much of the recent optimism appears to be some unfounded hope that a debt ceiling deal will get done ahead of a market freakout just because algos believe the jawboning from politicians. In a call early Friday from Japan, President Joe Biden told his negotiating team that he’s confident Congress will act in time to avoid a default (he won’t), according to a White House official. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are making plans for votes in the coming days on a bipartisan deal (there won’t be a deal).
“Growing optimism for a resolution to the debt ceiling negotiations has lifted sentiment, although the mood was slightly tempered by question marks over the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.
Meanwhile, treasuries recouped some losses from a selloff on mounting doubts the Federal Reserve will pause its credit tightening campaign next month.
European stocks rally for a second day with the German DAX on course for a record close as the mood around the US debt ceiling negotiations continues to improve. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, its largest gain in two weeks, with financial services, miners and tech the strongest-performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Allegro gain as much as 5.7% after Poland’s largest e-commerce platform said it would increase merchants’ co-financing of delivery costs and introduce commissions on pay buy-now-pay- later
Smiths Group rises as much as 1.9% after an earnings update from the UK engineer. Jefferies (buy) says the top-line guidance upgrade will likely be well-received by investors
1&1 shares jump as Deutsche Bank raises the German telecom operator to buy from hold, seeing room for the stock to go higher whether or not it opts to abandon its 5G network buildout
SBB shares fall as much as 7.7% to the lowest in more than five years, after Goldman Sachs halved its price target on the beleaguered Swedish landlord and reiterated its sell recommendation
Novartis shares fall as much as 2% after JPMorgan opened a negative catalyst watch on the Swiss pharma group ahead of the company’s presentation of data from its NATALEE breast cancer trial
Burberry shares fall as much as 3.2%, extending Thursday’s 5.2% drop that followed the publication of the British luxury- goods company’s FY results. Berenberg says the guidance was “not enough”
C&C slumps as much as 18% after the cider maker issued a profit warning, citing “significant challenges” in relation to implementing a complex system upgrade in two of its UK businesses
CEZ falls as much as 5.8% after the Czech government took legislative steps that would allow the it to overhaul the power utility without minority investors’ consent
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mostly higher following the tech-led gains on Wall Street, although Chinese markets lagged and were the outlier to Friday’s risk-on mood amid disappointment from Alibaba’s revenue miss. The Hang Seng Tech Index slumped as much as 2.4% as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd dropped in the wake of disappointing sales. India stocks snapped a three-day losing streak as banks and Adani Group stocks surged late in the session. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 61,729.68 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.4% to 18,203.40. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index climbed 0.3% for the day. Adani Group stocks rallied led by flagship Adani Enterprises’ 3.5% surge after a Supreme Court-appointed panel in a report said it found no conclusive evidence to suggest a stock price manipulation in the group’s stocks. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 22 rose and 8 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.2% having lost ground versus all its G-10 rivals. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer followed by the Norwegian krone.
In rates, treasuries initially rose for the first time this week with the US 10-year yield dropping 2bps to 3.62% before the entire move reversed and yields resumed their grind higher; the 10Y was last trading at 3.66% with bunds and gilts are little changed.
In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.8% to trade near $72.40. Spot gold adds 0.4% to $1,965. Bitcoin gains 0.5%
Bitcoin is modestly firmer and despite eclipsing the USD 27k mark as the USD comes under Yuan-driven pressure this morning, BTC thus far has been unable to hold onto the level and is now holding just below it.
To the day ahead now, and the highlights will include remarks from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams and Bowman, the ECB’s Schnabel and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Haskel. Data releases include German PPI for April. Finally, G7 leaders are currently meeting in Japan.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,219.50
MXAP up 0.3% to 162.24
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 513.46
Nikkei up 0.8% to 30,808.35
Topix up 0.2% to 2,161.69
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 19,450.57
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,283.54
Sensex up 0.2% to 61,577.36
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,279.52
Kospi up 0.9% to 2,537.79
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 468.70
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0788
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $76.31/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,967.13
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 103.35
Top Overnight News
Europe’s largest asset manager, Amundi, is shifting assets to China from the US as it feels the former market has become too cheap to ignore and has superior economic prospects. FT
China’s crackdown on overseas firms has made clear that leader Xi Jinping values security over economic growth. To eradicate any doubt, according to people familiar with the matter, he has put state-security czar Chen Yixin in charge. The campaign, which has included raids on Chinese offices of U.S. due-diligence firms and questioning of staff at the Bain consulting firm, is sending shock waves across global businesses. WSJ
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday the central bank will patiently maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy given “very high” uncertainty over the economic outlook. RTRS
The European Central Bank is stepping up scrutiny of lenders’ liquidity reserves and may communicate stricter requirements to individual firms later this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. BBG
G7 countries are preparing new sanctions against Russia, covering ships, aircraft, individuals and diamonds, officials say, as they seek to increase economic pressure on the Kremlin’s war machine. FT
Germany’s PPI cools by more than anticipated in April, coming in at +4.1% Y/Y (down from +6.7% in Mar and below the Street’s +4.3% forecast). RTRS
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are making plans for votes in the coming days on a bipartisan deal to avert a catastrophic US debt default. McCarthy said that negotiators on the federal debt limit may reach an agreement in principle as soon as this weekend, lining up a vote in his chamber. BBG
The White House is willing to make concessions on work requirements for certain federal aid programs, a breakthrough that could lead to an imminent debt ceiling deal. Politico
“Skip” is the new “pause.” Jerome Powell may shine some light on the murky rate path as the FOMC looks increasingly split on whether to pause next month or keep on hiking. A compromise would be a skip, where they put off an increase in June but return to it in July. Powell takes part in a panel discussion at a Fed conference today and there’ll be a Q&A. John Williams also speaks there. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-led gains on Wall St where the Nasdaq outperformed and the S&P 500 printed a 9-month high on debt ceiling optimism and firm data, although Chinese markets lagged amid disappointment from Alibaba’s revenue miss. ASX 200 was lifted with the tech sector front-running the gains as it took inspiration from its US counterpart and with the top-weighted financial industry trailing closely behind. Nikkei 225 surged at the open to print its highest since August 1990 although pared some of the gains after losing steam on its approach to the 31,000 level and as participants digested the latest CPI figures which were mostly in line with expectations but showed a faster pace of acceleration. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured as tech giants suffered following Alibaba’s earnings which beat on the bottom line but missed on revenue, while frictions lingered after the US and Taiwan reached an initial agreement on a ’21st Century’ trade pact and with China concerned about recent signs of negative China-related developments at the G7.
Top Asian News
Chinese President Xi said China proposed to establish meeting and dialogue mechanisms in cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in which the mechanisms will cover agriculture, transportation, emergency management, education and political party affairs, while Xi added that China will roll out more trade facilitation measures and upgrade bilateral investment agreements with Central Asian countries.
China’s Commerce Minister is to meet with US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and US Trade Representative Tai next week, according to Politico.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it will allow travel agencies to resume group tours for Taiwan residents to the mainland from today, according to Reuters.
USTR office said US and Taiwan reached an initial agreement on a ’21st Century’ trade pact which covers customs and trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, services regulations, anti-corruption measures and SMEs. USTR added that further US-Taiwan negotiations will commence on additional trade areas including agriculture, digital trade, labour, environment and SOEs, according to Reuters.
China’s Major state-owned banks are reportedly seen swapping Yuan for Dollars in the onshore FX forwards market, according to currency traders cited by Reuters; One source said state banks have started heavily trading buy/sell 1yr tenor since Thursday. Subsequently, China is to curb speculations on Yuan rates when necessary, according to PBoC.
BoJ’s Ueda says the domestic economy is picking up, driver of the economic recovery is likely to shift from pent up demand to rising income/expenditure. Adds, it is appropriate to take time to decide on adjustments to monetary easing toward a future exit. “While there is an opposite risk that inflation will remain above 2 percent if a change in policy falls behind the curve, the cost of waiting for underlying inflation to rise until it can be judged that 2 percent inflation has fully taken hold is not as large as the cost of making hasty policy changes. In this sense, it is appropriate to take time to decide on adjustments to monetary easing toward a future exit.”
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%, and are set to see the week out with upside of a similar magnitude. Thus far, fresh macro drivers have been limited the focus firmly on the Central Bank docket which features Lagarde & Schnabel from the ECB. Stateside, futures are flat/slightly firmer following as the debt ceiling sees tentative progress and participants switch their near-term focus to Fed speak/next week’s data; firstly, Fed’s Powell, Williams & Bowman are due today. Deere & Co (DE) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 9.65 (exp. 8.59), Revenue 17.39bln (exp. 14.83bln). +2.5% in pre-market trade. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) will not be swapping out default search engine on its smartphones from Google (GOOGL) to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Bing, via WSJ citing sources.
Top European News
UK plans GBP 1bln of semiconductor investment in a new strategy that aims to strengthen the domestic industry and chip supply chains, according to the government.
ECB is reportedly to increase scrutiny of bank liquidity and could lift requirements, via Bloomberg; could communicate such requirements later this year. Scrutiny into liquidity following on from US bank and Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) failures.
ECB’s Lagarde says we are heading towards more delicate policy decisions going forward; will be courageous to take the decisions needed to bring inflation back to the target.
Geopolitics
Ukrainian President Zelensky is to travel to Japan to attend the G7 Summit in person, according to Bloomberg.
US senior administration official said all G7 members are preparing to implement new Russian sanctions and export controls with the sanctions aimed at closing evasion loopholes and will target war inputs, energy reliance and access to financial systems. US is to target Russia with roughly 300 sanctions on individuals, entities, vessels and aircraft across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. US sanctions will also target financial facilitators, Russia’s future energy and extraction capabilities, as well as others supporting Russia’s war, while G7 countries remain committed to upholding the price cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration signalled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, while Ukraine was said to have used a Patriot to shoot down at least one Russian fighter jet in recent weeks, according to CNN’s Bertrand.
EU”s President of the European Council Michel said they will restrict the sale of Russian diamonds and call on China to pressure Russia to stop military aggression, while he said stable and constructive cooperation with China is in their interests and that they need to engage with China on global challenges.
Commodities
Crude is firmer on the session and back towards yesterday’s best levels in what has been a choppy session for the complex despite a lack of specific drivers ahead of a busy US agenda and with attention on the G7.
Currently, WTI and Brent are posting upside of over USD 0.50/bbl in circa. USD 1.00/bbl parameters.
As the USD comes under pressure, metals are experiencing relatively broad based upside; specifically, spot gold is bid but remains shy of the week’s USD 2022/oz best with LME Copper similarly sub-8.3k.
Saudi’s Energy Minister said coordination with OPEC+ countries is a cornerstone of the efforts to enhance the stability of oil markets and maintain their balance, according to the state news agency.
Fixed Income
Bonds fade from best levels in dead cat fashion awaiting final Central Bank speakers of the week headlined by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.
Bunds back below par between 134.33-133.76 parameters, Gilts slipping to new intraday lows towards 98.50 vs 99.21 at best and T-note rooted towards base of 113-30/114-05 range.
Permanent TSB (SAB SM) says it has not seen a slowdown in demand for mortgages due to higher rates, not seeing stress in mortgage book. Note, this headline is potentially a factor behind the recent increase in benchmark pressure, which is seemingly being led by Gilts
FX
Buck backs off from fresh multi-week peaks awaiting potentially pivotal remarks from Fed Chair Powell, DXY back under 103.500 towards 103.21 trough after forming a virtual 103.620-630 double top.
Yen claws back losses vs Dollar from 138.72 to 137.98 amidst reports of pre-weekend long liquidation.
Yuan regains poise from deeper sub-7.0000 lows as Chinese state banks step in to curb the slide.
Kiwi bounces firmly on 0.6200 handle after NZ trade balances swings from deficit into surplus.
Aussie, Euro and Sterling all take advantage of Greenback retreat within 0.6617-63, 1.0761-1.0804 and 1.2393-1.2435 respective ranges.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0356 vs exp. 7.0392 (prev. 6.9967)
US Event Calendar
Nothing scheduled
Central Bank Speakers
08:45: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Monetary Policy Conference
09:00: Fed’s Bowman Takes Part in Discussion at Bankers Convention
11:00: Fed Chair Powell, Former Chair Bernanke Speak on Policy Panel
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Earlier this week Henry and I published a chartbook entitled “A Time Capsule for the Future”. It imagines how those in the distant future might look at what the macro signals were telling us now in May 2023. The presentation is here and yesterday we hosted a webinar with around 500 people on, the replay of which will go out this morning to this list. I’ll also add the link to my CoTD later.
Talking of 500 people, tomorrow that number will be at a social event my wife has organised at our kid’s school. We’re having a 3 movie outdoor cinema afternoon/early evening shindig. Fortunately the weather looks clear. Our house currently has more popcorn in it than your local multiplex. Infact as I type this at 5am I can smell it which is a bit off putting. So if you’re running short in the weeks ahead you know where to come.
The movie of choice for markets in recent times has of course been the debt ceiling where events seem to be unfolding much quicker than anticipated. It was quite easy last week to suggest that the debt ceiling was having minimal negative impact on markets (outside of short-dated T-bills) but this week’s more positive sentiment on the topic has moved bond markets a lot and sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to highest levels since late-August, indicating that maybe more risk was priced in than we thought.
The latest driver were comments from Republican Speaker McCarthy, who said “I can see now where a deal can come together”, and that the negotiators were in a “much better place”. Furthermore, he even said he expected the House to consider a deal next week, with an “agreement in principle” possible this weekend. There was some hesitation from Financial Services Chairman McHenry in the afternoon that injected a degree of volatility into markets, but given McCarthy’s tone he seems to think he has enough GOP votes even with some dissenters. Clearly we’ll have to see how this develops and the content of what’s actually agreed, but this is a world away from where we were a week-and-a-half ago, when the two sides came out of their initial meeting with no public progress at all, and the route to a deal was much harder to envisage.
The other big story yesterday was a significant bond selloff that was sparked by hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Logan (voter). In particular, she said that “we haven’t yet made the progress we need to make” on inflation, and that “we aren’t there yet” in terms of it being appropriate to pause rate hikes. That caused a big reaction in markets, and led investors to dial up their expectations of another rate hike at the next meeting in June. Then later in the session, an FT interview with St Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) came out, who said that the situation “may warrant taking out some insurance by raising rates somewhat more to make sure that we really do get inflation under control”. On the more dovish side, Governor Jefferson (voter) said that “a year is not a long enough period for demand to feel the full effect of higher interest rates”. But the more hawkish comments got the attention, and by the close fed funds futures were pricing the chances of a June hike at 37.6%, having briefly gone as high as 41% on an intraday basis. So for the first time since SVB’s collapse, it’s clear that markets are now considering the prospect of a June hike as a serious possibility rather than just some tail risk.
In many respects, those two stories above are interlinked. After all, if we do get a resolution on the debt ceiling by early June, clearly that would make it easier for the Fed to proceed with a hike at their meeting on June 14. And with greater optimism on the debt ceiling and those hawkish remarks from Fed officials, US Treasuries sold off across the curve. For instance, the 10yr yield (+8.2bps) rose for a 5th consecutive session to a post-SVB high of 3.646%. Meanwhile, at the very front end, the pricing of further rate hikes meant that the 3m yield (+0.7bps) closed at a fresh post-2001 high of 5.225%. 2yr yields rose +9.8bps and are now +44bps above where they were intra-day last Thursday and +59bps above the lows from the prior Thursday, which was just after the last FOMC meeting .
US 1M Treasury yields (x-date sensitive) were down -4.7bps yesterday to 5.299%, that is their lowest closing level since May 5. The 1M yield is now down -23.2ps since its highest closing levels on Monday, having peaked intraday then at 5.577%, which is the all-time high for the security since they were first issued in late-2001. The spread of the 1M treasury yield remains 14bps higher than the 1M OIS overnight swap rate (which controls for the fed funds rate) after peaking at 44.5bps back on Monday as well, which is higher than we saw during the 2011 (5.3bps) or 2013 (23.8bps) debt ceiling episodes.
That risk-on tone from the perceived debt ceiling progress, and the moves to price in a June hike were given further support from various data releases. One was the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, which came in at 242k (vs. 251k expected) in the week ending May 13. On top of that, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for May saw a noticeable rebound to -10.4 (vs. -20.0 expected), after coming in at its lowest of this cycle so far in April. So there was some encouragement for those hoping that a recession might be avoided. That said, there was also further evidence for the pessimists on offer, since the Conference Board’s Leading Index fell a further -0.6% in April, bringing its year-on-year decline to -8.0% now. And for what it’s worth, on the 6 previous occasions since 1960 when it had fallen by such a large amount, the economy was already in recession by that point.
For now at least, markets were focusing on the positives, which enabled equities to advance on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the S&P 500 (+0.94%) advanced for a second day, and to a nearly 9-month high, running with a particularly strong close that can be partially attributed to today’s option expiry. Cyclical and tech stocks powered the advance with the NASDAQ (+1.51%) continuing its outperformance, and for the first time this year it now has a YTD performance of +20% (+21.2%), which is one of the biggest of any major index (admittedly after a -33% decline in 2022). And if you just look at the 10 megacap tech stocks in the FANG+ index, the performance is even more notable, with the index up +3.45% yesterday to bring its YTD gains to +53.21%.
Asian equity markets continue to build on the global rally with the Nikkei (+1.04%) leading gains across the region, extending its winning streak to 7 consecutive day and maintaining its’ highest levels since 1990. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.79%), the CSI (+0.21%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.13%) are also trading up. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-1.01%) is bucking the regional trend this morning after weaker results from Alibaba. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a decent start with those tied to the S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.28%) printing mild gains.
Data from Japan showed that consumer price inflation accelerated to +3.5% y/y in April, matching market expectations against last month’s +3.2% increase. Additionally, core consumer inflation (+3.4% y/y) rose in-line with market expectations in April (v/s +3.2% in March) and stayed well above the central bank’s 2% target, thus renewing thoughts over if and when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will make adjustments to their YCC policy.
Back in Europe, there was also growing optimism after natural gas prices closed beneath €30/MWh for the first time since June 2021, which has led to growing optimism about the economic picture as we head deeper into the year. That helped support risk assets across the continent, with the STOXX 600 up +0.39%, having also gotten a boost from the positive debt ceiling news as well. For sovereign bonds, the selloff was even bigger than the US though, with yields on 10yr bunds (+11.0bps), OATs (+11.9bps) and BTPs (+13.0bps) all seeing a significant increase.
Here in the UK, gilt yields actually hit some of their highest levels since Liz Truss was PM yesterday, after BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden said that they might accelerate their QT programme. He said that “There’s the potential for us to go up a little bit. I don’t see us going down given the experience of the first year.” However, Governor Bailey also said that “I do not envisage the balance sheet returning to what it was before the financial crisis”. Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr gilts were up +12.0bps to 3.957%, marking their highest level since late-October.
To the day ahead now, and the highlights will include remarks from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams and Bowman, the ECB’s Schnabel and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Haskel. Data releases include German PPI for April. Finally, G7 leaders are currently meeting in Japan.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Generally constructive tone ahead of key Fed speak – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 06:33 AM
European bourses/US futures are firmer with fresh drivers limited and the focus firmly on Fed speak
Debt ceiling reports indicate steady progress is being made, a view echoed by White House officials; Biden to leave G7 dinner early
USD retreats from multi-weak peaks amid a Yuan revival to the benefit of G10s pre-Powell
EGBs have seen two-way action but are holding off early German PPI-induced lows, USTs comparably more contained
Commodities are benefitting from the USD’s downside with Crude towards Thursday’s best while XAU remains shy of USD 2k/oz
Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Powell, Williams & Bowman. Moody’s on Italy and S&P on S. Africa
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%, and are set to see the week out with upside of a similar magnitude.
Thus far, fresh macro drivers have been limited the focus firmly on the Central Bank docket which features Lagarde & Schnabel from the ECB.
Stateside, futures are flat/slightly firmer following as the debt ceiling sees tentative progress and participants switch their near-term focus to Fed speak/next week’s data; firstly, Fed’s Powell, Williams & Bowman are due today.
Deere & Co (DE) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 9.65 (exp. 8.59), Revenue 17.39bln (exp. 14.83bln). +2.5% in pre-market trade
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) will not be swapping out default search engine on its smartphones from Google (GOOGL) to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Bing, via WSJ citing sources.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
Buck backs off from fresh multi-week peaks awaiting potentially pivotal remarks from Fed Chair Powell, DXY back under 103.500 towards 103.21 trough after forming a virtual 103.620-630 double top.
Yen claws back losses vs Dollar from 138.72 to 137.98 amidst reports of pre-weekend long liquidation.
Yuan regains poise from deeper sub-7.0000 lows as Chinese state banks step in to curb the slide.
Kiwi bounces firmly on 0.6200 handle after NZ trade balances swings from deficit into surplus.
Aussie, Euro and Sterling all take advantage of Greenback retreat within 0.6617-63, 1.0761-1.0804 and 1.2393-1.2435 respective ranges.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0356 vs exp. 7.0392 (prev. 6.9967)
Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
Bonds fade from best levels in dead cat fashion awaiting final Central Bank speakers of the week headlined by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.
Bunds back below par between 134.33-133.76 parameters, Gilts slipping to new intraday lows towards 98.50 vs 99.21 at best and T-note rooted towards base of 113-30/114-05 range.
Permanent TSB (SAB SM) says it has not seen a slowdown in demand for mortgages due to higher rates, not seeing stress in mortgage book. Note, this headline is potentially a factor behind the recent increase in benchmark pressure, which is seemingly being led by Gilts
Crude is firmer on the session and back towards yesterday’s best levels in what has been a choppy session for the complex despite a lack of specific drivers ahead of a busy US agenda and with attention on the G7.
Currently, WTI and Brent are posting upside of over USD 0.50/bbl in circa. USD 1.00/bbl parameters.
As the USD comes under pressure, metals are experiencing relatively broad based upside; specifically, spot gold is bid but remains shy of the week’s USD 2022/oz best with LME Copper similarly sub-8.3k.
Saudi’s Energy Minister said coordination with OPEC+ countries is a cornerstone of the efforts to enhance the stability of oil markets and maintain their balance, according to the state news agency.
UK plans GBP 1bln of semiconductor investment in a new strategy that aims to strengthen the domestic industry and chip supply chains, according to the government.
ECB is reportedly to increase scrutiny of bank liquidity and could lift requirements, via Bloomberg; could communicate such requirements later this year. Scrutiny into liquidity following on from US bank and Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) failures.
ECB’s Lagarde says we are heading towards more delicate policy decisions going forward; will be courageous to take the decisions needed to bring inflation back to the target.
DATA RECAP
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (May) -27 vs. Exp. -27 (Prev. -30)
German Producer Prices MM (Apr) 0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.6%, Rev. -1.4%); YY (Apr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 7.5%, Rev. 6.7%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed Discount Window loans were at USD 9.05bln in the week ended May 17th which was down from the USD 9.32bln level during the prior week, while BTFP lending was USD 87bln vs prev. USD 83.1bln W/W and the Fed’s Other Credit was at USD 208.5bln vs prev. USD 212.5bln W/W.
White House officials said US President Biden held a call with the debt ceiling negotiation team and his negotiating team said that steady progress is being made in talks, while President Biden is confident that Congress will take action to avoid a US default, according to Reuters.
US debt-ceiling negotiations are reportedly moving slowly and quite deliberately, sources tell Punchbowl. “It’s still possible the two sides reach a deal by Sunday or Monday, but legislative text is unlikely to be ready by then.”. A White House official said “steady progress is being made.”; Biden administration is aiming for a debt-hike extension into 2025 during talks with House GOP negotiators, according to multiple sources involved in the discussions.
Spokesperson says US President Biden is planning to leave G7 leaders dinner early.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is to travel to Japan to attend the G7 Summit in person, according to Bloomberg.
US senior administration official said all G7 members are preparing to implement new Russian sanctions and export controls with the sanctions aimed at closing evasion loopholes and will target war inputs, energy reliance and access to financial systems. US is to target Russia with roughly 300 sanctions on individuals, entities, vessels and aircraft across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. US sanctions will also target financial facilitators, Russia’s future energy and extraction capabilities, as well as others supporting Russia’s war, while G7 countries remain committed to upholding the price cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration signalled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, while Ukraine was said to have used a Patriot to shoot down at least one Russian fighter jet in recent weeks, according to CNN’s Bertrand.
EU”s President of the European Council Michel said they will restrict the sale of Russian diamonds and call on China to pressure Russia to stop military aggression, while he said stable and constructive cooperation with China is in their interests and that they need to engage with China on global challenges.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is modestly firmer and despite eclipsing the USD 27k mark as the USD comes under Yuan-driven pressure this morning, BTC thus far has been unable to hold onto the level and is now holding just below it.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-led gains on Wall St where the Nasdaq outperformed and the S&P 500 printed a 9-month high on debt ceiling optimism and firm data, although Chinese markets lagged amid disappointment from Alibaba’s revenue miss.
ASX 200 was lifted with the tech sector front-running the gains as it took inspiration from its US counterpart and with the top-weighted financial industry trailing closely behind.
Nikkei 225 surged at the open to print its highest since August 1990 although pared some of the gains after losing steam on its approach to the 31,000 level and as participants digested the latest CPI figures which were mostly in line with expectations but showed a faster pace of acceleration.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured as tech giants suffered following Alibaba’s earnings which beat on the bottom line but missed on revenue, while frictions lingered after the US and Taiwan reached an initial agreement on a ’21st Century’ trade pact and with China concerned about recent signs of negative China-related developments at the G7.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese President Xi said China proposed to establish meeting and dialogue mechanisms in cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in which the mechanisms will cover agriculture, transportation, emergency management, education and political party affairs, while Xi added that China will roll out more trade facilitation measures and upgrade bilateral investment agreements with Central Asian countries.
China’s Commerce Minister is to meet with US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and US Trade Representative Tai next week, according to Politico.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it will allow travel agencies to resume group tours for Taiwan residents to the mainland from today, according to Reuters.
USTR office said US and Taiwan reached an initial agreement on a ’21st Century’ trade pact which covers customs and trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, services regulations, anti-corruption measures and SMEs. USTR added that further US-Taiwan negotiations will commence on additional trade areas including agriculture, digital trade, labour, environment and SOEs, according to Reuters.
China’s Major state-owned banks are reportedly seen swapping Yuan for Dollars in the onshore FX forwards market, according to currency traders cited by Reuters; One source said state banks have started heavily trading buy/sell 1yr tenor since Thursday. Subsequently, China is to curb speculations on Yuan rates when necessary, according to PBoC.
BoJ’s Ueda says the domestic economy is picking up, driver of the economic recovery is likely to shift from pent up demand to rising income/expenditure. Adds, it is appropriate to take time to decide on adjustments to monetary easing toward a future exit. “While there is an opposite risk that inflation will remain above 2 percent if a change in policy falls behind the curve, the cost of waiting for underlying inflation to rise until it can be judged that 2 percent inflation has fully taken hold is not as large as the cost of making hasty policy changes. In this sense, it is appropriate to take time to decide on adjustments to monetary easing toward a future exit.”. Click here for more detail.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Apr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.2%); Ex. Fresh Food YY (Apr) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Apr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 3.8%)
New Zealand Trade Balance (Apr) 427M (Prev. -1273.0M, Rev. -1586M)
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.78 PTS OR 0.42% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 276.68 POINTS OR 1.40% /The Nikkei closed UP 234.42 OR 0.77% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.60 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.0137 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.0267 /Oil UP TO 72.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA//
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
Royal Mail reports a huge loss of one billion pounds after a year of strikes
(EpochTimes)
Royal Mail Reports Loss Of £1 Billion After Year Of Strikes
Royal Mail has suffered a full-year loss of more than £1 billion, leaving it trading at a loss as it recovers from the impacts of industrial action.
A 94-page document (pdf) by Royal Mail’s owner International Distributions Services (IDS), reported that the group swung to an operating loss of £1.04 billion for the year to March 26, against earnings of £250 million in 2021–2022.
IDS also revealed Royal Mail’s adjusted operating loss was £419 million against £416 million profit a year before. The report cited industrial action as the reason for the loss, in addition to an inability to deliver the in-year benefits of planned productivity improvements, lower numbers of COVID-19 test kits being returned, and a weaker online retail market.
IDS booked a £539 million writedown on the value of Royal Mail, given the “current risk backdrop and ongoing industrial dispute.”
Thousands of staff members launched a series of strikes in December 2022, disrupting the services in the run-up to the busy Christmas season.
Disagreement over pay and work practices between the members of the Communications Workers Union (CWU) and Royal Mail executives are at the root of the long-running industrial dispute. The disagreement that began last year resulted in 18 days of strike action across the business.
CWU and Royal Mail negotiators struck a deal and announced the Business Recovery, Transformation, and Growth Agreement (pdf) at the end of April. The agreement set out provisions to “jointly rebuild and transform the business” and included a pay offer as well as improvements made during negotiations.
The non-executive chair of Royal Mail Group Keith Williams has welcomed the agreement that will be put to a vote by CWU members.
“I said before that we had reached a crossroads at Royal Mail. Now that we have a negotiators agreement with CWU that will shortly go out to ballot, and thanks to the good progress made on our five-point plan to stabilise Royal Mail, our destination is coming into sight,” Williams said.
“There is now a clear path towards a more competitive and profitable Royal Mail, delivering improved services for our customers whilst further reducing our environmental impact.
“Importantly, if ratified, the CWU agreement provides greater job security and increased rewards—through both pay and profit share—for our employees. Successful delivery of the agreement will be key,” Williams added.
The CWU said the agreement could “stand the test of time, that moves us forward and moves the company forward,” following the “most bitter, most intense, and high-risk dispute this union’s ever been involved in.”
Quality of Service
In the financial results report, IDS also attributed Royal Mail’s “disappointing” quality of service to strikes and absences, but said an improvement plan was underway.
“Quality of service has been significantly affected by industrial action and high levels of absence. I am sorry that we have not delivered the high standards of service our customers expect. Improving quality of service is our top priority,” Williams said.
The agreement with CWU provides for pay increases over the two years to March 2025 at a cumulative cost of around £600 million. According to IDS, this is expected to be broadly covered by cost efficiencies, with changes to working practices, network changes, and attendance policies introduced successively over the next two years.
“So as we enter 2023–24 we have grounds for optimism. The economic climate remains challenging, and Royal Mail faces the task of rebuilding business from the damage caused by industrial action,” Williams said.
CWU released its annual account results on May 18, reporting that Royal Mail workers had delivered an excellent public service.
CWU Deputy General Secretary Terry Pullinger said the results demonstrated that “postal workers have delivered in the face of grossly unfair and intense competition, overbearing naval gazing regulation, and perpetual technological change.”
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//RUSSIA//USA
A real clown show:
(zerohedge)
Accounting Error In Zelensky’s Favor: Collect $3 Billion In Extra Weapons
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 09:20 AM
Just three days after Politico reported the latest authorization of military aid to Ukraine was on pace to run out in mid-summer, the Pentagon on Thursday disclosed it had made an accounting error with previous weapon shipments, overvaluing them by about $3 billion.
And just like that, the Pentagon says it’s now free to hand over another $3 billion in weapons, ammunition and supplies without asking Congress for approval.
“We’ve discovered inconsistencies in how we value the equipment that we’ve given,” an unnamed senior defense official told Reuters, adding that it’s possible the $3 billion discrepancy could grow even larger as the Department of Defense continues scrutinizing its accounting error.
Many of the weapon transfers to Ukraine have come from Pentagon stockpiles rather than straight from a factory. According to two DOD officials, the Pentagon used replacement cost for these, but should have used the Pentagon’s “net book value,” which is the Pentagon’s original purchase cost minus depreciation.
Whether sincerely or as part of a rigged game, Capitol Hill warmongers scolded the Pentagon. “The revelation of a three-billion-dollar accounting error discovered two months ago and only today shared with Congress is extremely problematic, to say the least,” said House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul and House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers in a joint statement. “These funds could have been used for extra supplies and weapons for the upcoming counteroffensive, instead of rationing funds to last for the remainder of the fiscal year.”
The two opportunistically reiterated previous calls for Biden to make up for “this precious lost time” by starting to provide Ukraine with dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) and the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
DPICM is a special 155mm artillery round. Controversially, it’s a type of “cluster munition” that’s “notorious for leaving dangerous unexploded munitions scattered over a wide area,” Forbes reported, noting that —in 2017 — eight Vietnamese were killed and six injured by cluster ammunition used more than 40 years before. The 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions outlaws them, but the US government is not among the more than 100 signatories.
Thus far, the US government has given Ukraine almost $37 billion in military aid over the course of the 15-month war. However, Dave DeCamp at Antiwar.com notes that — when tallying military aid, direct budgetary aid, training, the cost of US troops deployments to Eastern Europe and other aid — the real tally of War State’s latest proxy war against Russia exceeds $113 billion.
The Pentagon “error” adds a new stateside layer of doubt about the aid scheme’s integrity. Questions already abounded about what happens to weapons once they’re in the hands of the notoriously corrupt Ukrainian government. The Pentagon has a small team of inspectors in Ukraine, who can only provide limited accountability without venturing toward the battlefront — to say nothing of having to rely on the honest participation of their Ukrainian “partners.”
With American support for US involvement softening, Congressional hawks will welcome the opportunity to give Ukraine another $3 billion without taking a vote. An April Brookings poll found only 26% think America’s goal should be returning Ukraine to the status quo that preceded Russia’s invasion.
END
UKRAINE/USA/RUSSIA
USA signals willingness to export F 16 fighter jets to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
US Signals Willingness To Greenlight Export Of F-16 Jets To Ukraine
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 12:25 PM
The old Arabian proverb says, “If the camel once gets his nose in the tent, his body will soon follow.” This certainly applies to the way the US and its Western partners have gone about providing Ukraine with heavier and more advanced weaponry.
The “debate” over Western jets for Ukraine is now taking the route that the prior move to send tanks did: at first leaders say “no” and then it’s “we’re mulling it” and this is followed soon with “training” and then…
But now that proverbial camel is making his way into the tent rather quickly…
“The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks,” CNN reports.
This is precisely how it happened before the US signed off on sending M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev. Germany and the UK were the first to agree to send the Leopard II and Challenger 2 main battle tank, respectively. This “consensus” then allowed President Biden to reverse his stance on tanks, after voicing prior concerns of potential unnecessary direct escalation with Russia. CNN details further of ongoing deliberations:
Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.
A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.
“While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.” So perhaps the trigger hasn’t been pulled just yet, but it looks imminent – perhaps just weeks away.
But the key will be that European countries need approval even to begin training pilots directly on F-16 technology. Russian media is taking note, as the following in TASS details:
Ukrainian pilots are not allowed to train on F-16 fighter jets owned by European countries, as Washington remains unconvinced that Kiev needs the expensive aircraft, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing a senior Ukrainian official.
Despite the fact that some European countries have signaled that they are ready to send F-16s to Ukraine, authorities in Kiev will need approvals from the United States where the fighters were made. Without American consent, the training is likely to be limited to technical lessons and technical language only, the newspaper said.
The Biden administration is unconvinced that Ukraine needs the expensive jets. Besides, the United States does not want its highly restricted systems to be duplicated or fall into enemy hands. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday that he had no update on F-16s.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on May 9 that his country is discussing the possibility of sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine with Great Britain, Denmark and “some other countries in Europe” and the United States. “An intensive dialogue” is underway, Rutte said.
The UK is among those countries already training Ukrainians on Western aircraft. The process could take at least many months, if not a year. But the Pentagon seems to be moving fast even on the training issue…
As we described previously, a French official addressed the serious hurdles facing any future plan to given Ukrainians jets. “Before delivering a plane, you need to train pilots. It takes a long time. Ukrainian pilots are not trained to use French systems. They don’t speak French, let alone English,” an unnamed Elysée official told Politico.
Meanwhile, there’s reportedly movement on this taking place at the G7 Friday…
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/EUROPE
‘Radioactive cloud’ threatening western Europe – Russian security chief — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
Robert Hryniak
to
The sad truth is denial will be the way of NATO until the damage shows in in yet to be born children. Only then will the horror similar to what has been seen in Syria will be obvious to the public. The first public acknowledgment was the videos and pictures of robots being used to extinguish the fire. Why? Because firemen would be dead by being there. The land contaminated by the dust will be useless for at least 20-25 years. People really need to be aware of what has occurred and how they will be affected. The Polish people have been tasked with a heavy burden now.
When you look into Patrushev’s eyes know that if the winds had turned eastward Kiev would already cease to exist along with other cities of enablers of Zelensky. And all the talk of a frozen conflict much like Korea is an illusion. Once the Ukrainians launch their loudly sounded offensive, they will suffer the same fate as the army already destroyed. Expect to see stories and reports of thousands dying daily. And should the Neocon crowd launch their NATO forces into Ukraine as Ukrainians die in mass numbers we should not be surprised to see a tactical nuclear standoff or worse.
Once NATO published their colored map of how they see the breakup of Russia into 40 odd states; it became clear what the intention is and how Ukraine is a simple battering ram to be expendable. Whether nations like Poland or Romania learn from this remains to be seen. And given Hungary clearly understands how Zelensky has actively considered blowing up their gas and oil pipes upon which their economic survival depends there are no warm sentiments left.
Now he comes to Israel? With Russia joining forces with Iran, the middle east is one difficult place
(zerohedge)
Biden Seeking Joint Military Planning With Israel On Iran
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 04:15 AM
US officials say the Biden administration has initiated an “unprecedented” effort bring the Pentagon and Israeli army into direct joint military planning.
“The Biden administration proposed to Israel a few weeks ago the idea of engaging in joint military planning concerning Iran, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios,” according to the publication.
Already the two have been engaged in somewhat routine joint drills on Israeli soil, some of which employ scenarios of a conflict involving Iran or its regional proxies. There was also close intelligence coordination between Israel and the White House particularly during the Trump administration, for example when IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in Baghdad in January 2020.
Axios detailed further of the proposal, “The U.S. official added that such joint planning means that each side shares its plans for different contingencies and both sides can discuss ways to better deal with different scenarios that could develop regarding Iran’s activities in the region.”
All of this comes after it’s become clear there will be no restored JCPOA nuclear deal with Tehran, even though the Europeans have still sought ways to salvage it of late. At the same time, China has brokered peace and normalization between the Saudis and Iranians.
Israel has over the past years conducted high risk covert sabotage and assassination campaigns inside the Islamic Republic, and in some cases across the region (especially with frequent bombing raids on Syria), which it says is aimed at disrupting Tehran’s ‘terrorist’ acts but most importantly to prevent any attempt to achieve nuclear weapons.
While close US-Israeli cooperation seems obvious enough, also given the billions in US foreign aid Tel Aviv receives each year, some Israeli officials are wary and cautious about the Biden administration plan, voicing concerns to Axios that it could “tie Israel’s hands.”
Earlier this month, national security advisor Jake Sullivan sought to calm these objections, telling a foreign policy event in D.C., “We have made clear to Iran that it can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. As President Biden has repeatedly reaffirmed, he will take the actions that are necessary to stand by this statement, including by recognizing Israel’s freedom of action.”
Overall things have been tense between the Biden White House and Netanyahu government, as the recently re-elected Israeli prime minister has not so much as been invited to meet with Biden in the Oval Office yet, which is unusual for any PM taking office, in terms of such a long delay.
Once Leslie Manookian was on deck, I knew there would be victory; all these bitch*s, these beelzebubs, these untermensche, these devils, these bottom-dweller banal dogs who hurt kids COVID, we PUNISH
Bishop, California – May 11, 2023. With the help of retired U.S. Federal Judge Stephen G. Larson, Bishop Unified School District (BUSD) and a group of Parents who filed claims for damages for violation of their children’s civil rights finalized a settlement on April 27, 2023. Not only is the school district required to pay $400,000 because of the harm suffered by the children, BUSD must also provide counseling and tutoring for the students, and training for all BUSD faculty and staff on “public health, response to public health emergencies, informed consent, and bullying/harassment/retaliation issues.”
Armed with vital information on Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) and informed consent laws from Health Freedom Defense Fund (HFDF) and its founder, Leslie Manookian, Bishop parents and residents began expressing concerns about BUSD’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic at its August 2021 school board meeting. They urged BUSD to follow Title 21 U.S.C., the federal law for the use of EUA products, such as COVID-19 masks, testing, and vaccines. This law requires voluntary informed consent and the option to accept or refuse EUA products. The Parents also sought protection for students’ civil liberties and pleaded with board members to consider the negative outcomes of potentially punitive enforcement of what was merely state health guidance. BUSD instead implemented a medically nonsensical policy of handling school-based exposures, discriminatory COVID-19 testing based on vaccination status, and illegally excluding students from extracurriculars and sports.
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
“I was absolutely shocked when my daughter came home from middle school and reported how a staff member made her raise her hand in front of the whole class when asked about her vaccination status, and then she was escorted outside to be tested for COVID against her will – and without parental consent! My shock turned to anger when I saw how sad, embarrassed and violated she was by this incident. The very people entrusted with my daughter’s wellbeing and education were the ones causing her harm!” said Parent Ron Gladding.
BUSD ignored federal informed consent laws and committed many civil rights violations, including discrimination, segregation, bullying, harassment, retaliation and denial of a Free Appropriate Public Education (FAPE). At one school, many healthy students were forced to remain outside in cold winter weather because they did not consent to wearing masks. Some unmasked students were segregated outside of classrooms while other children, also not wearing masks, were allowed to fully participate in normal classroom activities depending on the teacher. Some teachers even took steps to humiliate those kids they labeled as “protestors.” Healthy children were forced into independent study which is voluntary by statute. Students were denied schoolwork, notes, tests, and academic help from teachers and suffered significant learning loss, and were harmed emotionally. One student with disabilities was not allowed to remain in the classroom and was denied access to their Individualized Education Program (IEP) in violation of FAPE.
“My daughter was on the field for practice and her coach told her to put on a face mask even though there was no outdoor masking requirement. When she declined, she was told to keep her distance and stay away from the team or leave. She was made to stand alone by herself. She was completely embarrassed, but she stood up for herself. This humiliation went on for days.” Parent Abby Veenker said.
“This should have never happened. Had BUSD listened to parents’ requests and respected everyone’s right to accept OR refuse EUA products as required by law, our children would not have been harmed.” Parent Todd Thornburg said.
Searching for a way to hold BUSD accountable for what was happening to their kids, a parent found one of the many legal rights webinars presented by Tracy L. Henderson, Esq., founder of California Parents Union (CPU) aimed at empowering parents, grandparents and educators. After watching CPU’s webinar on how to file tort claims against the school district, the Parents marched down the path of filing claims. In California, filing a tort claim, or damage claim form you obtain from your school district, is the first step required for an injured party to receive compensation from the government for damages or personal injury. Unsurprisingly, BUSD rejected the claims and referred the matter to its liability coverage provider, Self-Insured Schools of California (SISC).
“This is an important victory for all of the children in California who were emotionally and physically traumatized for their parents’ decision to decline to mask, test or vaccinate their children with the experimental COVID injections. Many parents and educators, who knew what was happening was wrong, stood up. Some succeeded in stopping the harm and others did not. Now, all parents, grandparents and educators are vindicated.” Tracy L. Henderson, Esq., California Parents Union Founder, said.
Helena Sunny Wise, Esq., counsel for Freedom To Choose USA generously offered her services and legal expertise to the Parents when she heard of their battle with BUSD, and efforts to settle the claims began in May 2022. The Parents and Ms. Wise repeatedly presented the relevant facts, law, and California Education Code to SISC. They were relentless and obtained copies of “smoking gun” emails between BUSD faculty and staff which corroborated the claims of civil rights violations. SISC was unresponsive during the process and ultimately, Ms. Wise had to request mediation so that a resolution could be reached. SISC hired Judge Larson to mediate the dispute and a meeting took place in January of 2023. Shortly thereafter, Judge Larson proposed a settlement, both parties accepted, and the matter was concluded. BUSD must pay $400,000 and the district has twelve months to implement the mandatory training for its employees.
“Although retired Federal Judge Larson was told by SISC that nothing had happened except for a few days out of the entire school year when a mask protest took place, persistence and the importance of telling the truth proved otherwise. These are not irrational parents as claimed bySISC. The damages began in August of 2021 and continued into the following school year.” Helena S. Wise, Esq., legal counsel for the Parents, said.
“The training required by Judge Larson should be implemented by every school district in California and across the nation as civil rights violations were not limited to BUSD. All Americans should be educated about informed consent laws so children’s and parents’ rights are never trampled again. HFDF and CPU are honored to have been asked by BUSD parents to conduct community trainings on these issues and plans are underway.” Leslie Manookian, Health Freedom Defense Fund Founder, said.
During the Omicron Wave of Infections in Iceland, December 1, 2021, to February 13, 2022; The reinfection rate was highest (475 of 3136 individuals [15.1%]) among those aged 18 to 29 years.
‘In this population-based cohort study, a substantial proportion of persons experienced SARS-CoV-2 reinfection during the first 74 days of the Omicron wave in Iceland, with rates as high 15.1% among those aged 18 to 29 years. Longer time from initial infection was associated with a higher probability of reinfection, although the difference was smaller than expected. Surprisingly, 2 or more doses of vaccine were associated with a slightly higher probability of reinfection compared with 1 dose or less.’
We are now seeing a surge in deaths in police & we argue due to the mRNA technology shots in Feb 2021; the death curves are increasing now, cancers, cardiac arrests, we punish vaxx makers
Phoenix, AZ – Sergeant Tim Wheeler died suddenly from a medical event while at home, on May 9, 2023 (click here)
UK (Chelmsford) – 51 year old Timothy Bourke died on May 7, 2023, two weeks after being diagnosed with cancer (click here)
Newark, NJ – 47 year old Officer Richard Weber died unexpectedly on May 1, 2023, his cause of death not released (click here)
Inver Grove Heights, MN – 35 year old Officer Ben Bidon, a US Army Veteran, died April 30, 2023 after collapsing in his garage off-duty on friday night, he died two days later (click here)
Los Angeles, CA – 39 year old LAPD Officer Paul Ahn died on April 28, 2023 after suffering a medical emergency while off-duty (click here)
Coeymans, NY – 43 year old Sergeant Marc Langlais died unexpectedly at his home on April 19, 2023 (click here)
Miami, FL – 41 year old Miami Police supervisor Nicole Clark-Davis collapsed at work, had a heart attack and died suddenly on April 19, 2023 (click here)
La Vergne, TN – 53 year old Lieutenant Robert “Bob” Hayes died on April 17, 2023 after a month-long battle with pancreatic cancer (Turbo cancer?) (click here)
Bayonne, NJ – 46 year old Transit Officer Brendan Burke died suddenly on April 15, 2023 (click here), cause of death not made public
Palm Beach, FL – 50 yo Former US Marine and Lieutenant Daniel Picciolo died unexpectedly on April 14, 2023, cause of death not released (click here)
Broseley, UK – 43 year old Police Officer Andy Boardman collapsed while responding to a call and died suddenly on April 11, 2023
Athens, GA – 62 year old Chief Deputy Ricky Brown died unexpectedly on April 10, 2023, cause of death not released (click here)
Phoenix, AZ – 56 yo Officer Mark Aker died after a medical emergency while at work on May 10, 2023, he was not handling a call when he had a “medical event” (click here…
Over a two-day period last week, about 100 law enforcement officers and firefighters from Ontario County, New York, underwent advanced cardiac testing for heart disease, stroke, and aneurysms.
Cardiologist Dr. Perry Frankel, who ran the testing, said that several officers were sent to the hospital right from the screening for stents and heart bypasses. Some of the officers had no symptoms of any heart problems.
In addition to the officers who were hospitalized, several others needed follow-up doctor’s visits, including some who were asymptomatic but had significant underlying heart conditions. “They’re a time bomb, “I’ve never seen so many people with heart disease in my life.” said Dr. Frankel.
Dr. Frankel attributes the increase in cardiac problems among first responders to their job and lack of sleep. He says that first responders have twice the amount of stress hormones coursing through their bodies than civilians.
Officers suffer their first heart attack at the average age of 49 vs. 69 for the general population, Frankel said. During a pursuit, their chances of sudden cardiac death increase 30 to 70 times.
I
In totally unrelated news, Dr. Perry Frankel, the cardiologist above who has previously blamed the increase in cardiac problems among first responders on stress, not the jabs, was recently charged in a COVID-related fraud scheme. Prosecutors allege that Frankel submitted $1.3 million in false claims to Medicare and Medicaid relating to the pandemic. Link
“As alleged, exploiting a public health crisis by using patients who received COVID-19 tests at mobile testing sites to fraudulently bill Medicare and Medicaid for fictitious office visits is reprehensible,” – U.S. Attorney Breon Peace
Guess we know who butters his bread.
Summary
I am curious about the vaccination status of the first responders who have experienced cardiac problems. It is likely that all of them were fully vaccinated, as virtually every city in New York had a vaccine mandate for its workers. New York State even had a statewide mandate for its employees, but it was struck down by the courts.
They really should release the info – at that point, everyone will know the truth.
Montana Becomes First State to Completely Ban TikTokMontana’s Republican Governor Greg Gianforte has just signed new legislation into law to make the state the first to completely ban the Chinese Communist Party-linked social media app TikTok.READ MORE
———- Forwarded message ——— From: Evol News<mail@evol.news> Date: Thu, May 18, 2023 at 8:15 PM Subject: Fauci, CCP-Linked Scientists Briefed Intelligence Officials on Origins of Covid: Documents To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>
Fauci, CCP-Linked Scientists Briefed Intelligence Officials on Origins of Covid: DocumentsREAD MORE…LATEST NEWS:Joe Biden, the Habitual Racialist DemagogueRead more…Hunter Biden Lobbied Obama’s State Department on Behalf of Corrupt Romanian OligarchRead more…Brett Favre Explains the Main Difference Between Trump and BidenRead more…Taco Bell Is At War With Competitors Over ‘Taco Tuesday’ TrademarkRead more…GOP Rep Introduces Resolution To Remove Adam Schiff From Congress: “He is a dishonor to the House of Representatives”Read more…24 Republican Governors Offer to Help Texas Defend Its Southern BorderRead more…FBI Revokes Security Clearances From Whistleblowers Set To Testify Before House Weaponization CommitteeRead more…REVEALED: Hunter Biden Lobbied Obama’s State Department for Corrupt Romanian Oligarch without Registering as Foreign AgentRead more…VIEW MORE
VACCINE IMPACT
Expectations of an Imminent Big Tech Crash Bringing Down the U.S. Economy is Expanding
May 18, 2023 6:37 pm
While I was among a very small minority in the 4th quarter of 2022 warning the public about the Big Tech crash that was coming and was a threat to bringing down the entire U.S. economy, judging from my newsfeed the past 2 weeks, I no longer think that this view is the minority view anymore. Both the alternative and corporate media are increasingly printing news and opinion pieces about how dangerous it is right now to have just a handful of Big Tech companies holding up the entire stock market, and mostly because of the hype over AI. I am going to highlight much of this news in this article, along with evidence that the banking crisis is actually getting worse, and then go further than most will dare to go, and consider the question: Is this all intentional??
“Forget About Recession, Forget About Inflation Or Banking Turmoil, Forget About A Last-Minute Breakdown In Debt Ceiling Talks”
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 09:40 AM
By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank
Ain’t it all coming along nicely?
US and European equity markets are playing true to their innate love (or bias?) for optimism. The S&P500 index just reached its highest level since August last year, European equities are already way beyond that mark, although they are still slightly trailing their month-ago levels. Forget about the upcoming recession, forget about persistent inflation or the US regional banking turmoil, and let’s not think of a last-minute breakdown in the US debt ceiling talks.
It would be foolish to simply discard this as irrational or wrong and to ignore what equity markets are trying to tell us. So what are they telling us?
First of all it seems that investors are less concerned about fundamentals. The long-awaited recession in both the US and the Eurozone still hasn’t come to pass and although (non-energy, non-financial) corporate margins have shrunk over the past year or so, things have not been as weak as expected. Including the energy sector would only strengthen the conclusion that profitability has been upheld. In fact, the most recent earnings season has overwhelmingly surprised to the upside, both for earnings and sales. And for those with a longer-term perspective, there is always the new AI revolution to cling on to.
Secondly, with central banks having slowed their pace of rate hikes, the market has concluded that the end of the tightening cycle may be near and it seems willing to accept the near-term uncertainty that is usually tied to that pivot point. Even though we don’t agree to this optimistic reading of the tea leaves, with long-term rates essentially having moved sideways (or down on balance in the US) over the past several months, the higher rates environment clearly has not proved a major impediment to a more positive risk sentiment of late.
One often overlooked aspect, though, is the liquidity environment. For example, the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, which was one of its key responses to the regional banking turmoil, injected some $400bn net into the system, partly offsetting the decline in the Fed’s balance sheet that had started in 2022 with the unwind of its asset purchase program. Although the use of this facility has on a downward path again in recent months, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet is not back to the pre-banking turmoil levels yet. Meanwhile, with the looming debt limit, the US Treasury has been taking all sorts of measures to avoid breaching the $31.4trn debt cap. Data published yesterday showed that the Treasury’s cash balance dropped to $68.4bn; last week it still stood at $140bn. By limiting its supply of securities to the market, the Treasury may have contributed to a more sanguine rates environment (except for the very short-dated T-bills) as well. But, barring a default, this is obviously a temporary phenomenon.
Although I am not so much raising the point of whether equities are overvalued or not, I want to highlight that this backdrop described above may also be behind a fairly favorable reading of the risk environment. This, potentially, is a bigger issue. Let’s take the G7 meeting, the hopes for a US debt ceiling resolution and liquidity as three examples.
Today marks the official start to the G7 meeting in Hiroshima. But in the run-up to this meeting we have already seen a flurry of comments and pronouncements by world leaders, including some very concrete developments. The first key objective is that this G7 is clearly all about presenting a ‘united front’ against Russia, and against other countries that are not following the West and/or are trying to break away from the US-polarity. There appears to be a strong commitment by the G7 to support Ukraine and tighten the economic noose on Russia. Sanctions will be broadened to a wider group of goods, especially those that could facilitate Russia’s war effort. According to Bloomberg, the latest draft of a statement does not talk about a near outright ban on exports to Russia, though. Meanwhile, existing sanctions will be tightened by removing loopholes to circumvent them. This would include the strengthening of enforcement in regards to third countries through which Russia is importing banned goods. One key risk here is that the G7 (plus ‘coalition of the willing’) drive a wider gap between them and those countries that have taken on a more ‘neutral’ stance in the matter. The EU’s Borrell’s call for action against Indian refined products made from Russian oil is an example here, as it has drawn a stingy response from India, who argues that such a measure would even be inconsistent with the EU’s own regulations. Although Japan’s PM Kishida has, amongst others, also invited India, Indonesia and Brazil, I’d imagine these nations would not like to return home empty-handed.
The second key objective of the summit is for the G7 and friends to get a better grip on reducing vulnerabilities in supply chains, in particular on dependency on single economies, such as China. On that front, there has been some concrete news on the sidelines, such as the deal between US-based semiconductor designer and manufacturer Micron Technologies and the Japanese government on a USD1.5bn incentive to develop next generation memory chips in Japan, with Dutch ASML’s EUV technology, as Bloomberg reported yesterday. UK Prime minister Sunak announced GDP18bn of new investment by Japanese firms in the UK, including a semiconductor partnership. So, small steps are being taken. But on the ‘build back better’ front, we would argue that there is really so much on the TO-DO list that expectations may simply be too high and divisions within the G7 (and EU) remain considerable. The way French president Macron wants to go forward, is not necessarily supported in all corners of Europe, even though he is probably one of the few leaders that actually has a clear and stated view.
Turning to the other elephant in the room, the US debt ceiling talks, there has been some positive news yesterday. Notably, it was House Speaker McCarthy that sounded the most optimistic since this saga started. McCarthy said that “he thinks an eventual debt limit bills needs to be on the floor next week, they are not there yet but he sees the path, they are in a much better place than a week earlier and it is important to have an agreement in principle this weekend”. Meanwhile Senate leader Schumer said that negotiations are continuing in the right direction and the Senate would act right after a house vote on the debt limit.
Of course, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings (or the actors in this game of chicken are back in their cages), but if we assume for a moment that there will indeed be an agreement before the Treasury truly runs out of cash, this would also imply a green light for a flurry of fresh debt issuance and hence a withdrawal of liquidity from the market. More fundamentally, although more Fed hikes isn’t our base case (we do expect the Fed to stay on hold longer than the market expects, though), such a deal may at least remove one potential impediment to further rate hikes by the Fed, should that be necessary. In the face of persistent inflation that is obviously not such an outlandish alternative scenario.
Finally, we note that we are only little more than a month removed from the repayment of a considerable sum of EUR477bn by European banks to the ECB. Bloomberg reports this morning that the ECB is “stepping up scrutiny of lenders’ liquidity reserves and may communicate stricter requirements to individual firms later this year […]”. Such measures would reduce the amount of ‘free’ liquidity on top of the impact from TLTRO repayments and a gradual wind down of the APP. In other words, if anything, the liquidity environment going forward could become less favorable for risk appetite.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Russia, Iran Pursue Joint Development Of Oil & Gas Fields
Iran and Russia are considering the joint development of as many as 10 oil and gas fields in Iran, media have reported following a meeting between Iranian officials and a Russian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
The proposal has come from the Iranian side amid talks about the development of other oil and gas resources in the country.
Novak told reporters that the sides had discussed specifically the development of six oil fields and two gas deposits. Gazprom was considering taking part in the development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields and building an LNG production facility, Novak also said, as quoted by TASS.
“Our oil companies are considering six oil fields, and Gazprom is considering two fields: Kish and North Pars, for joint development with the Iranian side, followed by the implementation of a natural gas liquefaction project and supplies to world markets,” he said, adding “Now, virtually all technical issues on this gas project have been settled. The evaluation of commercial conditions with Iran is currently underway.”
The Iranian government is in talks with Russia’s Gazprom about investments worth as much as $40 billion, Iran’s oil minister Javad Owiji said during the visit.
The amount is stipulated in a memorandum of understanding but, according to Owiji, “Some of these agreements are already turning into real contracts.”
Russia and Iran have been actively forging closer ties in the past few years, and that process got an additional push last year after Russia joined the small but growing club of Western-sanctioned countries following its invasion of Ukraine.
“The oil and gas industry is a backbone for the economies of our countries. Strengthening bilateral cooperation in this area will undoubtedly increase the economic sustainability of Russia and Iran,” the Russian government said in a statement during the visit, as quoted by Reuters.
END
Another indicator of a declining economy
(zerohedge)
US Rig Count Tumbles To Annual Decline; Jobs & Production Next?
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 03:05 PM
Baker Hughes just reported that the total number of active drilling rigs in the US tumbled by 11 last week to 720 – down 8 rigs on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the first annual decline since April 2021.
The first question we have is simple – with rigs now down almost 10% from the February highs – will Oil & Gas Extraction Industry jobs start to decline?
Source: Bloomberg
The decline in the number of rigs was entirely attributed to oil rigs, which fell by 11 this week to 575. Gas rigs stayed the same at 141. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.
Source: Bloomberg
That drop in oil rigs suggests US crude production is due to decline, which should, all things being equal, imply higher prices (but for now it is not).
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
PAKISTAN
The situation inside Pakistan is very tense. Also keep in mind that Pakistan has the highest cost for credit default swaps in the world. Its finances is in shambles
(zerohedge)
Imran Khan Is In A Standoff With Police Who Have Surrounded His House
THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2023 – 09:20 PM
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan said Thursday that his prior arrest (and release after mass protests and unrest) is part of a broader government crackdown against his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in order to keep him out of power and prevent him from contesting the upcoming general election.
“All the political parties and the establishment want me removed from the electoral field in an election year,” he told supporters while pointing out that police starting the day prior surrounded his house and blocked roads.
On Wednesday he had said his arrest was “imminent” – but it appears police have since backed off the “siege” of his house following the threat of clashes with his many supporters that also showed up to the neighborhood.
Police claimed his house was sheltering fugitives who engaged in violent protests last week in the wake of his controversial arrest on on a range of corruption charges.
This week Pakistan’s military promised swift justice for those who spread mayhem, vandalism and violence against the army and police:
Rioters and their backers who attacked Pakistan’s state assets and military installations during protests that erupted after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan will be tried under army laws, the country’s civilian and military leaders have said.
The decision was announced on Tuesday after a meeting of the National Security Committee chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Sharif’s office followed with a statement: “The meeting endorsed to bring the miscreants, the planners who incited for violence and their facilitators to dock by trying them under constitutional provisions of concerned laws, including Pakistan Army Act and Official Secrets Act.”
“Whoever are the planners and whoever incited these miscreants … they don’t deserve any leniency,” Sharif said. Khan has all along blamed Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir for his arrest and conspiring to keep him out of power.
At least eight people were killed (some sources say more) and many hundreds wounded in the pro-Khan demonstrations and riots, including some among the army and security services, who were called to restore order in Islamabad. Buildings, including a national radio broadcast center, were burned to the ground, and army bases were also breached in some cases. But the military is now vowing “no more”…
General Asim Munir has said that “planned and orchestrated tragic incidents” of May 9, the day military installations were attacked, will never be allowed again at any cost, ARY News reported.
The army chief during his visit to Sialkot Garrison said: “No one will be allowed to disrespect our martyrs and their monuments. They are a source of inspiration and pride for the rank and file of the Armed Forces, Law Enforcement Agencies, Government officials and the people of Pakistan.”
Meanwhile, here’s where things stand Thursday regarding the showdown outside Khan’s residence, according to regional media:
Pakistani police kept up their siege around the home of Imran Khan as a 24-hour deadline given to the former PM to hand over suspects ‘sheltered inside’ expired on Thursday afternoon. The siege and the authorities’ demand for the suspects, wanted in violent protests over Khan’s recent detention, has angered the former prime minister’s supporters and is raising concerns about more clashes between them and the security forces.
Imran Khan was freed from custody over the weekend and returned to his home in an upscale district of Lahore. Dozens of his supporters have been staying there with him, along with private guards. Police, who on Wednesday surrounded the residence, say they want 40 suspects handed over. The ultimatum for Khan ends at 2 p.m. local time.
If Khan is arrested again, and this remains a likely scenario, the country will ignite again – given tensions continue to be at boiling point over Khan’s fate, and anti-government unrest has continued in some locations.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0798 UP 0.0023
USA/ YEN 138.42 DOWN 0.206 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2436 UP 0.0024
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3484 DOWN .0013 (CDN DOLLAR UP 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.78 PTS OR 0.42%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 276.68 PTS OR 1.40%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .60% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 276.68 PTS OR 1.40 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.78 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.60%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 234.42 PTS OR 0.77%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1963.80
silver:$23.58
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.16 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP.(7.0107)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.0208
TURKISH LIRA: 19.81 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.400…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.667% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.922 UP 2 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2552% DOWN 1 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 102.98 DOWN 48 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 14.57 points or 0.19%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 112.02 PTS OR 0.69%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 45.07 PTS OR 0.61%
Spain IBEX UP 38.40 PTS OR 0.42%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 234.68 PTS OR 1.05%
WTI Oil price 71.44 12: EST
Brent Oil: 75.68 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 79.89/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 35//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.428 UP 10 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.034 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0799 UP 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2438 UP .0027 or 27 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3042% UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.10 DOWN 0.520 //YEN UP 52 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3504 UP .0017 CDN dollar, DOWN 17 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.84
Brent OIL: 75.76
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.715%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 3.949%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 4.3042%
USA dollar index: 103.13 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.81
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.00 UP 0 AND 22/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 109.48 PTS OR 0.33%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 31.13 PTS OR 0.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.71 UP 0.66 PTS (4.11)%
GLD: $183.64 UP 1.80 OR 0.99%
SLV/ $21.86 UP 0.36 OR 1.34%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bumper Week For Banks & Big-Tech But Bonds Suffer Biggest Bloodbath In A Year
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 04:00 PM
“The things we were most worried about didn’t get worse..” was the phrase overheard on one business media channel to sum up why the markets rallied this week…
A week of debt-ceiling optimism-fueled short-squeezing ran into a wall of OpEx flows, Powell’s (hawkish) comments, Yellen’s banking crisis still ongoing reports, and finally reports that debt ceiling talks are going nowhere.
Fed Chair Powell painted a hawkish picture of inflation-fighting warrior during this morning’s panel discussion, highlighting that “failure to get inflation down would prolong pain,” and that “inflation is still far above our 2% objective.” Powell signaled a pause, stating that “we can afford to look at data”, but he noted that the “market rate-path reflects a different forecast than The Fed.”
Powell further extended the “coordinated” Fed messaging from FOMC speakers seen over the the past week – which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott points out has clearly been the FOMC looking to alter the market’s assumed probabililty distribution of the Fed path continuum which is creating the false optic of ‘immiment Fed cuts’ within implied pricing…
Source: Bloomberg
However, comments (below) from Yellen (banking crisis) and Washington (debt ceiling – no deal), sent June rate-hike odds plunging…
Source: Bloomberg
Comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen were interesting given the big gains in regional banks this week as CNN reported her telling the big bank CEOs that “more mergers may be necessary”…
Which roughly translated means: more bank failures are imminent – which is ironic given that regional bank stocks soared almost 10% this week – the best week since Nov 2020 – but Yellen’s comments spooked them today…
Then Washington peed in the punchbowl as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s top debt-ceiling negotiators reportedly “abruptly left a closed-door meeting with White House representatives soon after it began Friday morning, throwing the status of talks to avoid a US default into doubt.” Thus crushing optimism over the debt-ceiling talks.
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that the ‘longer-term’ sovereign risk of the USA remains at extreme highs…
Source: Bloomberg
However, on the week, MegaCap-Tech continued to attract momo/safe-have/FOMO/AI flows with Nasdaq soaring (The Dow was the laggard but still green on the week)…
Shorts were squeezed on the week, but today’s OpEx chaos may spoiled the ability to ignite it again…
Source: Bloomberg
While a handful of MegaCap Tech names led the markets higher, retail stocks were clubbed like a baby seal after TGT, WMT, and FL (FootLocker) also signaled the consumer may be weakening significantly this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Just remember, we’ve seen this pattern of debt-ceiling optimism turn into pessimism before (in 2011)…
Source: Bloomberg
And Nasdaq is extremely overbought…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields exploded higher this week with the short-end massively underperforming. Note that the selling pressure was almost solely during the US day session…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest weekly rise in 2Y yields since June 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
And a massive curve flattening (inverting further)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the second week in a row but hit notable resistance and faded today…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin chopped around $27,000 (+/- $500) all week…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold’s worst week since Feb, but did bounce back today…
Copper was flat on the week but crude managed gains (despite weakness on the day)_
NatGas soared 15% this week, back at 2-month highs…
Finally, we give the last words of the market week to Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who has good news and bad news for what happens next: the recent PTJ talking point on this current environment looking like the 2006 / 07 playbook increasingly “feels” like the right one: the Equities market can continue to absolutely party until the end-game arrives… and it can take much longer than you think despite “things breaking along the way,” just ripping-out hearts in the meantime as we continue to fend off worry-after-worry, where pervasive skepticism and cynicism towards market conditions keep sentiment- and positioning- “light” and in-turn, continue to feed into a “buyers are higher” pain-trade melt-up within Risk-Assets in the meantime.
Options skews suggest a lot of ‘over-hedging’ remains…
However, McElligott warns, we’ve seen this pattern of behavior before: Similar to my January comments on the “most mis-priced risk” in markets being a false assumption on market sequencing which them assumed “pause then cut,” instead of the risk of the Fed needing to actually take Terminal projections higher, which is exactly what then happened throughout the month of February and roiled markets on account of the January “animal spirits” data phenomenon after the Fed’s premature easing of FCI… it feels like the market is “starting” to get the joke again that there is “growing delta” for yet-another false assumption, resizing the probability distribution of the the bi-modal humps (mega-crash rate-cut AND/OR high-for-longer).
The June-Dec Fed-Funds spread is steepening to reflect this apparent shift…
Source: Bloomberg
The market could get stopped-OUT of the current “pause then cut” assumption and / or get stopped-INTO a disaster “pause then hike” flip…
Source: Bloomberg
…and remember, a seemingly / outwardly “bullish” debt-ceiling deal getting done actually perversely instead releases a new wave of tightening, particularly due to a massive TGA rebuild thereafter with ENORMOUS T-Bill issuance in the months thereafter, creating a monster liquidity drain.
So, be careful what you wish for and maintain light positioning (the latter harder than it sounds amid the AI-phoria).
b) THIS MORNING TRADING // debt ceiling reports
“They’re Just Unreasonable”: Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse As Republicans “Abruptly” Walk Out Of Negotiations
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 11:48 AM
Yesterday, when explaining the real reason for Thursday’s tech-led meltup – which for those who missed it was the biggest call buying spree-cum-gamma squeeze since 2014 – we mocked those idiots who blindly repeated the ridiculous planted narrative that debt ceiling talks were “going well” for the simple reason that, as we went on to say, there would be NO DEAL until the market freaked out, to wit:
But before someone idiotically tosses that today’s meltup was because of more good news on the debt ceiling negotiations (there was zero news, neither good nor bad, and we hate to break it to you but there will be no debt ceiling deal until after the market freaks out, so enjoy the frenzied rush higher), the primary explanation for today’s move was simple: the biggest nasdaq gamma squeeze since 2014!
Well, today the idiocy continued and there were those who once again blindly parroted the narrative that debt ceiling talks are going great and debt deal optimism is pushing stonks higher.
Just one problem…
… it was – as we warned repeatedly – all a lie, and moments ago Bloomberg reported what we all know would come out sooner or later (it ended up being sooner), that the talks have pretty much collapsed after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s top debt-ceiling negotiators “abruptly left a closed-door meeting with White House representatives soon after it began Friday morning, throwing the status of talks to avoid a US default into doubt.”
“Look, they’re just unreasonable,” Republican Representative Garret Graves said, adding that the talks were on a “pause.” He added that he did not know if the negotiators would meet again Friday or over the weekend, which is a problem because as we showed last night, the Treasury cash is now down to just $14 billion away from the Treasury’s critical cash level of $50BN, and at this rate, the Treasury will run out of cash in a few days.
“Unless they are willing to have reasonable conversations about how you can actually move forward and do the right thing, we’re not going to sit here and talk to ourselves,” Graves said, as House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry stood near him.
Graves’ comments come one day after McCarthy said he could see a deal coming together with a House vote next week (narrator: he was only jawboning for political purposes; there will be no deal next week). And yet, the 19 year old woke portfolio managers took McCarthy’s comments as his most positive yet on the negotiations to avoid a default, and bid risk up like the useful little liquidity providing idiots they are.
Stocks naturally tumbled on the Bloomberg news, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.2% as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. That’s despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell having said, at a separate event, that the central bank might not need to raise interest rates as high —thanks to potential credit tightening after recent issues in the banking sector.
Elsewhere, 2Y yields plunged, reversing all of the days move and then some…
… while gold – which for some bizarre reason had been sold on “DeBT DeBAtE OptiMiSM” soared.
II) USA DATA/
-END-
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Ninety million Americans struggle paying bills as credit card usage surges
(zerohedge)
Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes
THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2023 – 10:40 PM
A large swath of American consumers are facing financial hardship as they grapple with elevated living costs, record-high credit card use, and two years of negative real wage growth. This perfect storm could decimate financially fragile households in the next downturn.
As many as 89.1 million American adults (or about 38.5%) were found to experience some form of difficulty in covering expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from the Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 34.4% in 2022 and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.
The rising trend is alarming but not surprising. Consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth.
As wages fail to outpace the cost of living, many consumers have burned through savings and resorted to credit cards. The latest revolving credit data shows consumers appear to be ‘strong,’ but that’s only because they use their plastic cards more than ever to survive.
The Household Pulse Survey found struggling households were primarily based across West Coast and the South.
Compared with the same period last year, the survey found 2.7 million more households were relying on credit cards to cover expenses.
Consumers have record card debt and ultra-low savings rates and are paying some of the highest borrowing costs in a generation (the average interest rate on cards now exceeds 20%). This debt is becoming insurmountable for some as delinquencies rise.
And what we have now is new debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute that shows not just spending slowdown for lower-income consumers, but also the upper-income cohort is finally starting to crack.
END
Interesting: the IRS flags over one million tax returns for possible identity theft in order to gain refunds.
(zerohedge)
IRS Flags Over 1 Million Tax Returns For Review Citing Possible Identity Theft
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has flagged over 1 million 2022 tax returns for additional review over potential identity fraud, according to a recent report.
The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration’s interim results (pdf) of the 2023 filing season, which they released on May 10, cited 1.1 million identified as of March 2 that warranted a closer look.
The IRS stated that thus far, they have confirmed that 12,617 of the tax returns were fraudulent, and they prevented the distribution of refunds totaling $105.3 million.
During the last tax year, the IRS only identified 9,626 as confirmed fraudulent returns, with the 2023 filing period already seeing a jump of roughly 3,000 illegal returns.
According to the study, the agency would employ 236 different filters during the tax filing season of 2023, which is an increase from the 168 filters that were used during the tax filing season of 2022.
The Treasury Inspector General’s office went on to explain that the filters consist of reported income and withholding amounts, filing requirements, age, filing history, and prison status. These characteristics are derived from tax returns that have been shown to be false.
If a tax return is flagged by an agency filter, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will not process it until the taxpayer’s identification has been verified.
The IRS anticipates to collect 167 million individual income tax returns in the year 2023. As of March 3, 2023, the IRS had received 54.9 million tax returns, of which 53.6 million (or 97.5 percent) were filed online and the IRS has distributed $127.3 billion in tax money.
According to recent expert testimony before the Senate, the IRS’s increased enforcement activities are likely to impact small and midsize businesses.
Chris Edwards of the CATO Institute testified before the Senate Finance Committee on May 16, explaining that the Biden administration’s promise that there won’t be more tax audits for companies and families making less than $400,000 per year applies to “total positive” income, which means that there are no losses.
A big story: USA commercial real estate prices slide for the first time since 2011 and the experts site more downside coming
(zerohedge)
US CRE Prices Slide For First Time Since 2011 As ‘More Downside Coming’
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Commercial real estate (CRE) has tumbled into a downturn as property values are sliding. This situation worsens because small and regional banks are the biggest source of credit to CRE owners. Over the past three months, these banks have been the epicenter of financial turmoil, a concern we presented to readers when the regional bank domino began falling in early March in a note titled “Nowhere To Hide In CMBS”: CRE Nuke Goes Off With Small Banks Accounting For 70% Of Commercial Real Estate Loans.
Bloomberg cited the latest data from Moody’s Analytics that showed first-quarter CRE prices fell for the first time in over a decade. An ominous sign as the regional bank crisis developed late in the quarter and has since sparked credit tightening in the second quarter.
Moody’s said courthouse records of transactions revealed CRE market dropped about 1% in the quarter, led by multi-family residences and office buildings.
Moody’s Analytics chief Mark Zandi warned: “Lots more price declines are coming.”
Just how deep will the CRE correction be?
According to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, she believes “peak-to-trough CRE price decline of as much as 40%, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis.”
Shalett warned:
“More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points.”
Although we do not discount the possibility of such a drastic plunge in CRE values, it’s important to note that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates should such a decline happen.
Complicating the matter is a JPMorgan analysis showing small banks have accounted for the lion’s share of CRE lending relative to larger banks. As shown below, as of February 2023, small banks account for a staggering 70% of total CRE loans, excluding multi-family, farmland, and construction loans.
Last week, the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report said, “The magnitude of a correction in property values could be sizable and therefore could lead to credit losses.”
On Tuesday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told lawmakers that he’s watching for “commercial real estate risks.”
The price declines come as the regional bank fiasco has led to the sharp tightening of lending standards. This means a massive slowdown in bank credit extended, making it more difficult for CRE clients to refinance. And what’s worse is a multi-trillion-dollar CRE debt maturity wall over the next five years.
A “doom loop” is developing, explained Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics. He said the reduction in lending by banks would depress CRE prices, prompting even further credit cuts.
“Delinquencies and defaults will rise, but I don’t think we’ll see a lot of forced sales,” Zandi said, adding his price forecast is for a 10% drop.
Here are other notes we’ve highlighted about the CRE downturn:
“Off On The Wrong Foot”: Foot Locker Shares Crater As Consumers Pull Back
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 10:40 AM
The discretionary spending downturn has become more evident as several mega-retailers reported earnings this week. Home Depot Inc. slashed its annual profit forecast, citing a slowdown in consumer spending. Target Corp. and Walmart Inc. also warned about waning sales. The latest to report is Foot Locker Retail, Inc., warning about a consumer slowdown that forced it to cuts its annual sales forecast.
Foot Locker shares plunged Friday morning after it reported awful fiscal first-quarter results and gave an ominous outlook for the year based on a “tough macroeconomic backdrop.”
The already struggling shoe retailer missed revenue and profit and disclosed that it had to increase discounting of products to stimulate sales.
Here’s a snapshot of first-quarter sales:
Comparable sales -9.1% vs. -1.9% y/y, estimate -7.9%
Sees adjusted EPS $2.00 to $2.25, saw $3.35 to $3.65, estimate $3.62 (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees comparable sales -7.5% to -9%, saw -3.5% to -5.5%, estimate -3.99%
Sees gross margin 28.6% to 28.8%, saw 30.8% to 31%, estimate 31%
Sees adjusted capital expenditures about $305 million, estimate $305.2 million
“Our sales have since softened meaningfully given the tough macroeconomic backdrop, causing us to reduce our guidance for the year as we take more aggressive markdowns to both drive demand and manage inventory,” CEO Mary Dillon said in a statement.
New guidance from the retailer now expects sales to be down 6.5% to 8% for the year, compared with prior guidance down 5.5%. Also, it expects comparable sales to drop as much as 9%.
Investors weren’t thrilled with the earnings and negative outlook, sending shares down more than 26% to the $30 handle.
In a call with analysts, Dillon said, “We’ve seen the consumer retrench as they continue to face pressure from rapid inflation, which we see squeezing their ability to spend on discretionary items including athletic footwear, in addition to overall discretionary spend seeing some pressure those spending dollars also appear to be directed more towards services and away from products as consumers are forced to be more choiceful and how to spend their money. When we gave guidance, we are seeing steep comp declines given a number of factors.”
She explained more about the gloomy 2023 outlook:
“So, while 2023 was always going to be a reset year for us. We now expect a sharper decline in both sales and earnings this year due to steeper macro headwinds, combined with the other dynamics of our transition just mentioned despite the challenging environment. We remain confident in the Lace Up plan as a roadmap to return us to sustainable growth next year. With that, let me update you on our progress so far in the Lace Up plan strategic imperatives.”
With 47% of the consumer base in the lower-income bracket, the CEO said, “The 10% decline in average tax refunds, which have an outsized impact on our business given we over index to a lower income consumer.” Her statement implies that government stimulus checks will no longer have direct impacts on boosting sales.
Meanwhile, CFO Robert Higginbotham pointed out, “We have seen a significant pickup in theft activity.”
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the depressing results:
Wedbush (neutral, PT $40)
“Big miss-and-cut gets the Dillon era off on the wrong foot,” analyst Tom Nikic writes
Results reflect the “challenging macroeconomic environment facing FL, a business that specializes in selling high ASP shoes to moderate-to-lower income consumers (a tough environment)”
Issues are made worse by reduced allocations from Nike and the lack of Yeezy product from Adidas, he says
“Notably, we don’t view this as an indictment of new CEO Mary Dillon, as it’s too early in her tenure for her to have made meaningful changes to the business, and many of the headwinds were either set in motion before she took the reins (NKE allocation reduction) or completely out of her control (Yeezy elimination, macro environment)”
Still, likely not the way she wanted to kick off her tenure, and it could be hard to find silver linings here in the near term”
Baird (neutral, PT $40)
“Disappointing setback following upbeat March investor day,” writes analyst Jonathan Komp
Suspects that investors were “braced for weakness,” but this update highlights the risks of adding exposure to “cyclically sensitive names in a more challenging retail environment”
Expects these results will pressure group sentiment today and may reflect “incremental weakness among lower-income consumers”
Retail earnings reports this week indicate a growing concern about American consumers who might be at a breaking point. Due to financial constraints, many prioritize staple goods over discretionary purchases. This week, New Bank of America Institute data showed notable spending slowdowns in upper-income consumers. Data has already shown that the lower-income cohort has dialed back spending.
end
This frightened many as Yellen warns of more mergers ahead. In English: more bank failures!
(zerohedge)
Bank Stocks Puke As Yellen Reportedly Warns Of ‘More Mergers’ Ahead
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 11:23 AM
Amid a major short-squeeze which has lifted the regional bank stocks almost 10% this week – the best week since Nov 2020 – CNN is reporting that during Thursday’s meeting with the CEOs of large banks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told executives that more bank mergers may be necessary as the industry continues to navigate through a crisis, two people familiar with the matter told CNN.
Yellen echoed remarks from US regulators who have said there may be bank mergers in the current environment, one person familiar with the matter said.
Additionally, this is nothing new as during an interview with Reuters this week, Yellen said a certain degree of consolidation in the regional and mid-size banking sector could occur.
“This might be an environment in which we’re going to see more mergers, and you know, that’s something I think the regulators will be open to, if it occurs,” Yellen told Reuters.
Roughly translated that means expect more imminent bank failures.
“Consolidation is inevitable,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.
“The progressive backlash is the Catch-22.”
Overall, regional banks took an immediate hit…
With some of the more headline-worthy names really hammered…
Interestingly, the readout provided by the Treasury Department following that meeting noted that Yellen addressed the banking stress, reaffirming the “strength and soundness of the US banking system” and thanking the bankers for “their leadership and support.” But that readout did not mention discussion of bank mergers.
However, sources tell CNN that bank mergers were discussed during Yellen’s meeting with bank CEOs.
And this came at the very second when Fed Chair Powell was reassuring the public that the US banking system was sound and resilient.
END
And now Miller lite….Executives face backlash over their ad
(zerohedge)
Miller Lite Defends Execs After Woke Ad Sparks Backlash
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 01:05 PM
As consumers become increasingly aware that they’re drinking watered-down and overpriced beer while mega-brewers inject woke messaging into advertisements, some beer drinkers have had enough and boycotted these brands.
The Wall Street Journal reports Molson Coors Beverage, which owns Miller Lite, is defending a marketing executive after netizens were unhappy with a recently released woke ad.
“People can take issue with our ads or our brands, but we won’t stand by as people personally attack our employees—especially given that these are company decisions, and are never made by one single person,” the brewer’s spokesman Adam Collins wrote in an email.
“Here’s a little known fact. Women were among the very first to brew beer ever — from Mesopotamia to the Middle Ages to Colonial America. Women were the ones doing the brewing,” actress Ilana Glazer said in the video. She complained: “Centuries later, how did the industry pay homage to the founding mothers of beer? They put us in bikinis. Wow.”
Glazer continued: “It’s time beer made it up to women. So today, Miller Lite is on a mission to clean up not just their sh*t but the whole beer industry’s sh*t. Miller Lite has been scouring the internet for all this sh*t and buying it that they can turn it into good sh*t for women brewers. Literally, good sh*t.”
“So here’s to women. Because without us there would be no beer,” she claimed.
Although the video was posted months ago, social media users have brought attention to the ad this week as some accuse Miller Lite’s corporate executives of “joining the woke cult” and failing to understand its customer base.
“This video was about two things: worm poop and saying women shouldn’t be forced to mud wrestle in order to sell beer. Neither of these things should be remotely controversial and we hope beer drinkers can appreciate the humor (and ridiculousness) of this video from back in March.”
Collins did not provide examples of what he claims are “people personally attack our employees.” Nor did the WSJ author care to give examples.
The only example that the WSJ author cited was podcast host Joe Rogan who said:
“I hate identity politics with a passion, I really do.
“It’s so stupid. Human beings made beer, OK? And some human beings look good in bikinis.”
And if Rogan’s comments are considered “hate,” then wow.
For Miller Lite to go on the offensive against consumers who have spoken out about the woke corporation…
It’s very evident which side of the political aisle Glazer leans towards.
… is a symptom that brewer execs might be terrified of consumers’ opinions where they can no longer control the narrative.
Woke mega corporations should respect consumers instead of going on the offensive.
Recall, German gun manufacturer Heckler & Koch’s social media person went on a woke rant earlier this week. The company immediately deleted the tweets and said, “H&K does not engage in identity politics. A policy was violated. Changes were made.”
FBI officials were concerned that footage from inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, would show undercover agents and confidential informants, a whistleblower said in testimony revealed on May 18.
George Hill, a retired supervisory intelligence analyst who worked out of the FBI’s Boston field office, recounted that the bureau’s Washington field office (WFO) pressured officials in Boston to open investigations on 138 people who attended a rally on Jan. 6, 2021, even though there were no indications the people violated the law.
Boston officials pushed back, saying they would need evidence, such as footage of individuals inside the Capitol, to open investigations of the individuals.
“Happy to do it. Show us where they were inside the Capitol, and we’ll look into it,” one official was quoted as saying.
“We can’t show you those videos unless you can tell us the exact time and place those individuals were inside the Capitol,” WFO officials responded, according to Hill.
Hill said Boston officials questioned why they couldn’t get access to the tranche of some 11,000 hours of footage from inside the Capitol.
“Because there may be—may be—UCs, undercover officers, or … confidential human sources, on those videos whose identity we need to protect,” Washington-based officials responded.
Hill recounted the discussions during testimony to the U.S. House’s Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. The clip from the testimony was played during a hearing on May 18 and detailed in a report the panel released based on whistleblower disclosures.
The FBI’s national headquarters and the WFO didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Wray Testimony
Marcus Allen, another FBI employee who has also become a whistleblower, has alleged that he was retaliated against because he shared an email with other FBI workers that questioned whether FBI Director Christopher Wray was truthful while testifying to Congress.
“You believe that Christopher Wray indicated that there were no confidential informants, no FBI assets that were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6 that were part of the violent riot, isn’t that right?” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a member of the subcommittee, asked Allen.
“Yes, sir,” Allen said.
They appeared to be referring to testimony given behind closed doors.
After playing the clip of Hill’s comments, Gaetz said, “You got retaliated against for the very thing, for saying the very thing that the Washington field office was telling Boston.”
Wray told one congressional panel in a public hearing in late 2022 that he wouldn’t say whether the bureau had confidential sources embedded among the Jan. 6 protesters.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has suggested that the FBI should be defunded and its agents criminally indicted after special counsel John Durham concluded this week that the federal agency should have never launched an investigation into whether former President Donald Trump colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.
Durham’s 300-plus page report (pdf) asserted that the FBI rushed into the probe without having any evidence that officials from the Trump campaign had contacted any Russian intelligence officer.
During an interview with Newsmax on Monday, Gaetz accused the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) of being politically biased in the probe, alleging the agency has become “the enforcement wing of the Democratic Party to play offense against Trump,” describing its actions as “very ugly for the future of a democracy where the people make the choices.”
“The report takes great lengths to point out the number of times where Trump was targeted in a way no other American would be,” Gaetz said. “In essence, the FBI has now become a disinformation and election interference enterprise here in our country. It’s very damning for them, the Steele Dossier was nonsense, the probable cause standard even to originate an investigation … was never met, and you had a secret court that was lied to.”
“I think we have to deauthorize, defang, and defund many of these authorities and entities and different task forces that actually converted the just and righteous act of protecting our country with the desire to have a particular political candidate win or lose,” he added.
The congressman also argued that if the probe had been driven by a GOP candidate—or an operation to help a Republican candidate’s campaign—it wouldn’t have concluded with just a report, but with “real significant indictments.”
Gaetz went on to say that he’s disappointed the report did not recommend any indictments in addition to the three people Durham already prosecuted, pointing out he believes more people should have been prosecuted as a result of the investigation.
“The only indictment that Durham is able to cite here is the indictment of Kevin Clinesmith,” Gaetz said, referring to the former FBI lawyer who doctored an email to state that a one-time Trump campaign associate was not a CIA asset when the associate actually was. Clinesmith has since pleaded guilty and received probation.
“And guess what? He’s already back to practicing law,” he added. “Got his law license back, and practicing law here in D.C. now. Insufficient.”
FBI Responds
The FBI responded to the Durham report hours after the DOJ published it on its website, acknowledging “missteps” in its 2016–2017 investigation into the alleged Trump-Russia ties.
“The conduct in 2016 and 2017 that Special Counsel Durham examined was the reason that current FBI leadership already implemented dozens of corrective actions, which have now been in place for some time,” the FBI wrote in a statement. “Had those reforms been in place in 2016, the missteps identified in the report could have been prevented.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) echoed similar sentiments during an interview on Fox News’ “Sean Hannity” Monday night, agreeing with Gaetz that the FBI’s funding should be cut, adding he believes there are “double standards” in the DOJ’s treatment of Republicans and Democrats.
“The only way we can hold them accountable is to go after one thing that everybody cares about—the money,” Jordan said. “We have to look at the power of the purse if we’re ever going to get control of these agencies, who did this not just once, but multiple times,” he added.
In a post on Twitter Monday, Gaetz said the Durham report is an “absolutely DAMNING treatise on the weaponization” of federal agencies against Trump, adding Monday’s development “should be a clarion call for legislative reform.”
“In a proper world, Republicans and Democrats would be able to work together on this,” Gaetz said. “It wasn’t that long ago that the FBI was a right-wing organization, weaponized against civil rights leaders and others. And it was wrong then, and it’s wrong now.”
Trump also seized on the report in a series of posts on Truth Social this week, stating the investigative report indicates the federal government launched a coordinated effort to interfere with the 2016 election.
Whistleblowers told Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee that gave Jan. 6 connected bank records to the FBI without customers’ knowledge or consent.
In their testimony, whistleblowers claimed that the FBI had become “enveloped in politicization” and made several claims of “serious abuses” over an extended period of time.
Among those abuses, whistleblowers said that Bank of America (BOA) had transferred information to the FBI on transactions that took place in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. Customers were not informed of this data transfer.
Firearm Owners Targeted
Those who used their Bank of America accounts to purchase a firearm were reportedly bumped to the top of the list handed over to the FBI.
In a report released on May 18, Republicans revealed whistleblower testimony from retired FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst George Hill, who made the allegations.
“The Bank of America, with no directive from the FBI, data-mined its customer base,” Hill testified, saying that this data mining comprised transactions made between Jan. 5, 2021, and Jan. 7, 2021.
Specifically, they targeted transactions made in Washington or nearby counties in Maryland and Virginia.
Investigators asked Hill, “It’s anyone who used a Bank of America either debit or credit card to conduct a transaction?”
“Right,” Hill replied. “Any transaction. To buy a hot dog. Doesn’t matter.”
Hill then confirmed that those who had purchased a gun “at some point in time, any time” were bumped to the top of the list given to the FBI.
“This list was provided without any legal process to the FBI?”
“Correct,” Hill replied.
“So my understanding of the [FBI Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide] and amateur assessment based on law is that, you know, if a citizen sees a crime in commission, there’s nothing wrong with injecting that and opening up a case. But, to my knowledge, using a debit card in the District [of Columbia] does not provide adequate predication for the investigation of a crime.”
He alleged that “there was no legal process asking for [the information]” and that Bank of America had acted entirely on its own accord.
…
In their concluding commentary on the report, House Republicans called the testimony “highly alarming.”
“The FBI seemingly worked with a major financial institution to receive, without legal process, financial records about Americans … This invasion of the privacy of American citizens is highly concerning.”
Below is my column in the New York Post, which turned out to be the theme for the cover. The Durham Report highlighted two scandals.
First, there was a comprehensive effort of the political and media establishments to perpetrate one of the great hoaxes in history — a political hit job that ultimately derailed an American presidency.
Second, there was no real accountability for that effort for the main players from Clinton to Comey to Congress. It was much like The Murder on the Orient Express.
The question is not “whodunit” but who didn’t. Spoiler alert: they all did it so no one was punished.
Here is the column:
In Agatha Christie’s “Murder on the Orient Express,” detective Hercule Poirot observes, “The impossible could not have happened, therefore the impossible must be possible in spite of appearances.”
That may be the best summary of the findings of special prosecutor John Durham in his 305-page report issued yesterday.
Not only did the impossible happen, but they all did it: the Clinton campaign, the FBI, and the media.
In hindsight, it would appear impossible.
A political campaign hatches a plot to create a false claim of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
Making this even more implausible is that the CIA and FBI knew about the plan.
As detailed in the report, President Barack Obama and his national security team were briefed on how “a trusted foreign source” revealed “a Clinton campaign plan to vilify Trump by tying him to Vladimir Putin so as to divert attention from her own concerns relating to her use of a private email server.”
It then happened a few days later.
It was a plot that required everyone to take a hand in derailing a duly elected president and effectively shutting down his administration for three years of investigation and prosecutions.
In this conspiracy, there were dozens of key participants in the campaign, the government, and the media. Here are a few of the characters implicated in this report.
The campaign
The report details how the Russian collusion conspiracy was invented by Clinton operatives and put into the now-infamous Steele dossier, funded by the Clinton campaign.
The funding was hidden as legal expenses by then-Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias. (The Clinton campaign was later sanctioned by the FEC over its hiding of the funding.)
It was not just reporters who asked the Clinton campaign about its role in the Steele dossier. John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, was questioned by Congress and denied categorically any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Sitting beside him was Elias, who reportedly said nothing to correct the misleading information given to Congress.
Durham details how Elias played an active role in tracking the media campaign to push the false allegations. (Elias was recently severed by the Democratic National Committee from further representation and has been previously sanctioned in the federal courts in other litigation.)
The report details how false claims like the existence of a “pee tape” showing Trump engaging in disgusting acts with prostitutes in Moscow came from a Clinton operative, Chuck Dolan, with no known basis in fact.
The Clinton campaign later admitted that it had indeed funded the dossier, but Clinton continued to claim that the election was stolen from her by the Russians.
The government
Of course, this conspiracy could not occur without the assistance of the FBI, which Durham found played an eager role due to a “predisposition” of key players against Trump.
Special counsel John Durham completed a four-year review of the FBI’s investigation of allegations Trump’s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia
Durham found the FBI’s probe was “seriously flawed” and had no basis in evidence, according to a 306-page report released Monday.
The special prosecutor found that FBI officials “discounted or willfully ignored material information that did not support the narrative of a collusive relationship between Trump and Russia.”
Durham also found investigators put too much faith in information provided by Trump’s political opponents and carried out surveillance of Trump campaign adviser Carter Page without genuinely believing there was probable cause to do so.
Despite the scathing findings, Durham did not recommend criminal prosecutions or widespread FBI reforms, writing that “the answer is not the creation of new rules but a renewed fidelity to the old.”
Durham’s investigation lasted more than four years, longer than the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe itself.
The dossier was discredited early by American intelligence, which learned that it might itself be Russian disinformation.
There never was support for the allegations, but the FBI launched and maintained a massive investigation anyway.
Durham noted that the FBI showed a completely different approach to allegations involving the Clinton campaign.
The Trump investigation was a “noticeable departure from how it approached prior matters involving possible attempted foreign election interference plans aimed at the Clinton campaign.”
Nevertheless, former FBI Director James Comey would continue to reference the entirely unsupported “pee tape” in interviews.
Even though investigators found no support for the campaign-created story, in a 2018 interview, Comey delighted viewers by saying: “Honestly, I never thought these words would come out of my mouth, but I don’t know whether the current president of the United States was with prostitutes peeing on each other in Moscow in 2013.”The FBI was assisted in this effort by members of Congress on the House Intelligence Committee.
Even when the false narrative was played out and the lack of support was becoming obvious, former House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) assured the public, on March 13, 2018, that “I can certainly say with confidence that there is significant evidence of collusion between the campaign and Russia.”
He never produced the promised evidence.
The media
The most essential player in this conspiracy was the media, which pumped up the dossier as gospel. On MSNBC, Rachel Maddow assured her viewers that “no major thing from the dossier has been conclusively disproven.”
On CNN, one of the guests insisted, “I think we actually have to stop calling it the ‘infamous dossier’ and increasingly calling it ‘accurate dossier,’ the ‘damning dossier.’”
CNN host Alisyn Camerota attacked Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and said the dossier “hasn’t been discredited, in fact, it has been opposite, it has been corroborated.”
Durham has laid out how the most cited claims were not supported, let alone corroborated.
Indeed, he found there was no basis for this investigation to have been launched in the first place.
Yet, like in “Murder on the Orient Express,” all of the culprits were then let go.
After all, this was a collective effort. In Washington, the more people involved in a conspiracy, the less culpable it becomes.
They all did it, so no one did.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report May 19, 2023 Issue 6994
Independent View of the News
Jobless claims fall sharply to 242,000 as Massachusetts battles fraud The biggest drop took place in Massachusetts, which is battling a surge in fraudulent applications. New filings in the state sank by 14,042 to 20,901, based on actual or unadjusted data… https://t.co/66PPD1CvoC
Yahoo’s @Jenniferisms tweeted at 9:13 AM ET on Thu, May 18, 2023: Fed Gov Jefferson speaking in DC this AM says inflation is too high, but the economy is slowing, while credit conditions are tightening and that he’ll take all this into account at the next interest rate meeting.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan yesterday morning: “After raising the target range for the federal funds rate at each of the last 10 FOMC meetings, we have made some progress. The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet.” Fed VCEO to be Jefferson yesterday morning: “Inflation is too high, and we have not yet made sufficient progress on reducing it. Outside of energy and food, the progress on inflation remains a challenge… a year is not a long enough period for demand to feel the full effect of higher interest rates.”
ESMs traded modestly lower, but sideways, from the Nikkei opening until they turned positive 10 minutes after the 3 ET European opening. An A-B-C rally of 16 ESM handles ended at the 7 ET US repo market opening.
ESMs and stocks then sank on the above hawkish comments from Fed officials. ESMs hit a daily low of 4161.25 at 9:05 ET. However, ESMs and stocks went vertical when the following headline exacerbated the usual frenetic buying into and after the NYSE opening:
McCarthy Predicts US Debt-Limit Deal on House Floor Next Week – BBG 10:28 ET
ESMs hit a daily high of 4199.25 at 11:49 ET. When bulls could not push ESMs above 4200 after 6 minutes of trying, traders sold. ESMs sank 24 handles in 26 minutes. After a 15-handle rally, ESMs broke down at 13:26 ET. ESMs sank 17 handles by 14:00 ET. It was time for the afternoon rally.
ESMs soared to 4215.50 by 15:53 ET on blatant manipulation. There is too much liquidity in the system.
Once again, the usual suspects poured into Fangs. The NY Fang+ Index soared 3.45%. Netflix hit +11.1% at 12:04 ET. JPM reiterated its buy rating, and NFLX said its ad-supported plan had about 5m monthly active users. Nvidia was +4.22% near the European close. Most everyone should understand that manipulating Fangs higher to squeeze expiring call options is a recurring feature of expiry week.
Due to the rapid Fang buying, Nasdaq hit a 13-month high! This evidence of too much liquidity available for speculation could induce more Fed rate hikes.
USMs traded higher during Nikkei trading but began a decline after the 1 ET Nikkei close that persisted until 11:15 ET. USMs hit -30/32. Bonds, unlike stocks, ignored McCarthy’s debt-limit optimism. USMs traded sideway from the European close until the broke lower at 15:00 ET.
Walmart profits soar in Q1 as high inflation, low prices lure customers Comparable store sales… rose 7.4% in the quarter ended April, a bit slower than the 8.3% during the fourth quarter but still impressive. Global online sales surged 26%…Walmart reported net income of $1.67 billion, or 62 cents per share for the three-month period ended April 30. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to $1.47 per share, far exceeding the per-share earnings of $1.32 that Wall Street was looking for, according to a survey by FactSet. That compares with $2.05 billion, or 74 cents per share, in the year ago period… https://trib.al/R9UE6lf
Democratic lawmaker ‘disappointed’ with Biden’s handling of debt negotiations: ‘We’re in a weaker position’ – “We’d be in a stronger negotiating position right now if we had led the charge in saying, let’s sit down and negotiate about this starting now back in February,” Golden said… “I’ve been disappointed with the way they’ve handled it up until the last week,” he said, adding that he wrote a letter to Biden on Feb. 1 saying Democrats needed to negotiate… https://t.co/jdbL7NyFRf
Chinese Communist Party has been waging ‘economic war’ against US for ‘decades’: former U.S. trade rephttps://t.co/LqoB9dMnHI
“They[Capitalists] will furnish credits which will serve us for the support of the Communist Party in their countries and, by supplying us materials and technical equipment which we lack, will restore our military industry necessary for our future attacks against our suppliers. To put it in other words, they will work on the preparation of their own suicide.” – Lenin
What is AGI? The Artificial Intelligence that can do it all AGI – artificial general intelligence – the advanced technology with similar capabilities to that of humans… “The downside is AGIs can learn quickly… suddenly you have something that’s way smarter than a 3-year-old, or an 18-year-old, or Einstein… That’s where people start getting a little nervous about, how do we even understand what that may be?,” he added… https://t.co/Hvkag0Lvv7
Automation and robotics displaced blue-collar workers. AI and AGI are intended to replace white collar, college-educated, advanced-degree educated executives and decision makers.
Positive aspects of previous session Speaker McCarthy generated an early equity rally, abetted by the usual expiry upward bias. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit 9-month highs; the Nasdaq 100 soared 1.81% to a 13-month high. Blatant manipulation in the afternoon generated a big equity rally. Fangs soared on expiry-related buying/manipulation and AI euphoria.
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again despite the equity rally. The dollar rallied sharply on a tone change in Fed interest rate expectations.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The Nasdaq 100 hit a 13-month high. Will the rabid speculation induce more Fed rate hikes?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4184.57 Previous session High/Low: 4402.20; 4153.50
NYC Mayor Eric Adams Complains That 50% of City’s Hotel Rooms Now Occupied by Illegal Migrants – Hurting the Economyhttps://t.co/PtvC9wyFdv
Supreme Court Gorsuch Blasts ‘Breathtaking’ Pandemic Decrees In an eight-page statement that accompanied a routine order, Gorsuch decried lockdowns, school and church closures and vaccine requirements, casting them as fear-induced overreactions that could drive a slide toward autocracy. “Since March 2020, we may have experienced the greatest intrusions on civil liberties in the peacetime history of this country… Even the ancients warned that democracies can degenerate toward autocracy in the fact of fear.” https://news.yahoo.com/gorsuch-slams-pandemic-emergency-power-200701417.html
Don’t Miss the Most Damning Durham Finding What should terrify the country is not the catalog of malfeasance the special counsel recited — for mistakes and even gross failures can be corrected — but that Durham warned of corrupted hearts and minds, unfaithful to the people and their Constitution… https://thefederalist.com/2023/05/17/dont-miss-the-most-damning-durham-finding/
Fox’s @ChadPergram: GOP GA Rep Greene: It is with the highest amount of solemnity that I announce my intention to introduce articles of impeachment today on the head of this America at Last executive branch that has been working since January 20th, 2021, to systematically destroy this country. The President of the United States, Joseph Robinette Biden…Biden has blatantly, blatantly violated his constitutional duty, and he is a direct threat to our national security. Therefore, Joseph Robinette Biden is unfit to serve as the President of the United States
Today is May option expiration. On Thursday, traders manipulated ESMs higher and Fangs to the moon to squeeze expiring May options. They successfully pushed ESMs and the S&P 500 Index through 4200. However, the S&P 500 Index closed at 4198.04 on profit taking near the NYSE close.
Traders want to push stuff higher again today. The key, barring impact news, will be the action in Fangs. Large operators and traders incontinently loaded up on Fangs this week for the expected and successful manipulation to squeeze expiring call options. Weakness in Fangs implies big operators are exiting.
ESMs are +6.75 at 21:00 ET because traders are euphoric; it’s expiry; and liquidity is abundant.
Expected econ data: none; NY Fed Pres Williams 8:45 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 9 ET, Fed Chair Powell and Bernanke 11:00 ET at Bankers Convention
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4068; 100-day MA: 4033; 150-day MA: 3983; 200-day MA: 3976 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,169; 100-day MA: 33,347; 150-day MA: 33,193; 200-day MA: 32,767 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
GOP @RepMattGaetz: The Washington, D.C. FBI Field Office CONFIRMED that undercover officers, confidential informants, and FBI assets were present at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, despite FBI Director Wray testifying to the contrary! https://twitter.com/RepMattGaetz/status/1659209091435331584
The Unidentified and Uncharged Instigator in the Oath Keepers Case With the reputation of the Justice Department and the FBI in shreds, it is reasonable at this point to suspect that any unidentified participant could have been a fed. In fact, it appears this chief instigator isn’t even charged despite a trove of evidence showing how he incited at least one member of the group to engage in criminal behavior that day. Someone identified only as “1%Watchdog” started a group chat on an encrypted application called Zello, which mimics a walkie-talkie. The channel, named “Stop the Steal J6,” was created on January 1, 2021; by noon on January 6, 2021, the channel had about 170 subscribers including Watkins, prosecutors allege… So, who is “1%Watchdog?” Despite the most intrusive surveillance and investigative tools known to mankind, prosecutors still claim they don’t know his name or the names of two other anonymous participants. In a letter to defense attorneys last month, Assistant U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Nestler informed counsel the government “is not able to confirm these individuals’ true identities for you.”… This should raise serious questions as to the role of “1%Watchdog” and whether he worked in some capacity on behalf of the government… https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/15/the-unidentified-and-uncharged-instigator-in-oath-keepers-case/
Daily Mail: ‘FBI shut down FOUR investigations into the Clintons in 2016’https://trib.al/PLgQAV7Florida Republican Matt Gaetz and former GOP congressman Jason Chaffetz are calling for criminal investigations into the Clintons to be reopenedThree of the probes were launched in early 2016 by FBI field offices in Arkansas, New York, and DC into ‘possible criminal activity’ by the Clinton FoundationAn investigation was also opened in late 2014 into claims that foreign governments were trying to make illegal donations to buy influence with Hillaryhttps://trib.al/PLgQAV7 FBI obtained Americans’ bank records without subpoena: Whistleblowershttps://t.co/XIylQXW5TI
@ChadPergram: GOP Sen. Cruz on Fox: It is very disturbing the corruption and the weaponization that we have seen within the FBI and within the Department of Justice. The FBI had a memo coming out of the Richmond Field office where they directed undercover agents to target traditional Catholics to try to go and get priests and clergy to spy on the members of their church. It’s an absolute abuse of power. The politicization has become normalized. And you’re right, numerous whistleblowers have come forward and the political leadership of the FBI has responded by retaliating, which is illegal under federal law, doing things like stripping their security clearance. Now, if you’re an FBI agent, you get your security clearance stripped. It means, as a practical matter, you’re not able to work..they’re being used as the enforcement arm, as the muscle for the DNC. And it is it is fundamentally wrong what is happening under Joe Biden.
FBI whistleblowers to testify on harsh retaliation from bureau, ‘weaponization’ of clearance process Numerous individuals within those organizations have come forward with claims of misconduct at the highest levels, and have often reported severe professional backlash from their superiors in the process Intelligence Analyst Marcus Allen has alleged that the bureau suspended his security clearance for raising concerns about the factual accuracy of testimony that FBI Director Christopher Wray gave to Congress about the events of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. During a March 2021 hearing, Wray made remarks suggesting that the FBI or law enforcement had not infiltrated certain groups that attracted blame for violence at the Capitol during the incident… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-whistleblowers-testify-harsh-retaliation-bureau-weaponization
FBI Made Iraq Veteran ‘Homeless’ for Speaking Out Against Bureau, Longtime Agent Testifies “In weaponized fashion, the FBI allowed me to accept orders to a new position halfway across the country. They allowed us to sell my family’s home. They ordered me to report to the new unit when our youngest daughter was two weeks old. Then, on my first day on the new assignment, they suspended me, rendering my family homeless. They refused to release our goods, including our clothes, for weeks. All I wanted to do is serve my country by stopping bad guys and protecting the innocent. To my chagrin, bad guys have begun running parts of the government, making it difficult to continues to serve this nation and protect the innocent,” O’Boyle testified… https://dailycaller.com/2023/05/18/fbi-agent-made-homeless-whistleblower-complaint/
@JonathanTurley: Christiane Amanpour is calling out her boss Chris Licht for allowing Trump to have a town hall event. https://t.co/PBO1tt6j00It is consistent for a reporter who asked former FBI Director Comey why he allowed Trump to speak during the 2016 campaign… (Not a parody!) https://t.co/H7nzEnvH7s
Ailing (Dem Sen.) Dianne Feinstein, 89, suffers from ‘facial paralysis’ and ‘vision impairments’https://trib.al/1jE156w
@0rf: Why RFK Jr. is convinced the CIA killed his father: (One reason is the bullets in Sirhan’s gun didn’t match the bullets in RFK Sr. A 2nd is Sirhan’s attorney was mob/CIA related and told Sirhan to plead guilty) https://twitter.com/0rf/status/1658961318014058496
@elonmusk: You assume they are good intentions. They are not. He wants to erode the very fabric of civilization. Soros hates humanity.
The Lying Legacy Media (LLM) is lying to you about what is going on in Ukraine. The war has taken a harsh turn in that Russian missiles are targeting ammunition depots to blow up rounds of Depleted Uranium (DU) munitions. (DU can go through a foot of armor.) Don’t let the name fool you. Depleted Uranium is only depleted of its fuel and not it’s radioactive nightmare. It has a 4-billion-year (that’s right, billion) half-life.
The Russians just blew up some fresh DU rounds imported from the UK, and it put a huge mushroom cloud in the sky over a city called Khmelnytskyi. Have the people miles around this blast been told that a huge section of the city will no longer be inhabitable for a few billion years? Is NATO crazy to continue this war? Is anyone going to tell the public this has gone nuclear?
It did not look like Special Counsel John Durham’s efforts to get to the bottom of the fake charges of Russian collusion and President Trump were ever going to go anywhere, but it finally did. We were all told for years Trump might be a Russian asset or a spy. It was all lies, but the Durham Report didn’t tell us anything new on Trump. We knew he was NOT a Russian agent. What the Durham Report did do was lay out a case for felonies, treason and sedition for many players that worked day and night to try to stop Donald Trump. Lots of people should be headed to jail, but not much is going to happen with the Deep State globalist Democrats in power. They are criminal and will not let go of power; otherwise, they will go to jail.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is warning of a debt default started by a failure to raise the debt ceiling. Dems want to blame a market crash or systemic failure on the Republicans. It’s not going to happen because there is a bill already passed through the House. The Dems just want more for the piggery they have in mind. What is going to happen is a severe economic failure no matter what happens with the debt ceiling. Housing is tanking, leading indicators are plunging for more than a year and Home Depot had its worst revenue miss in 20 years. We are not going in the right direction, and the term “brace for impact” comes to mind.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he brings you these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 5.19.23.
Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Inflation here we come—you ain’t seen nothing yet. Williams will lay out his case.
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
Fauci, CCP-Linked Scientists Briefed Intelligence Officials on Origins of Covid: Documents
harveyorganblog.com 
“They’re Just Unreasonable”: Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse As Republicans “Abruptly” Walk Out Of Negotiation
HARVEY ARE YOU ALTERING THE REAL NEWS NOW, WHY NOT YOUR OTHER MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS MAKE UP NEWS STORIES ALSO.
REPS WALKED OUT NOT DEMO’S
Take off you Bias goggles
LikeLike